Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on San Antonio plus the points over Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Monday.

The Bulls are in uncharted territory right now having reeled off four straight home wins (their longest previous home win streak this season lasted only three games). I can't help but feel they're in for a letdown on Monday, however, as they host the lowly Spurs, who haven't tasted victory since January 17th. This one might not be as straight-forward as it looks on paper for Chicago, noting that San Antonio has actually taken two of three meetings in this series going back to last season, including a 129-124 victory as a five-point underdog back in late October. While the Spurs enter this game riding an eight-game losing streak (seven straight losses ATS), they have shown signs of life lately, knocking down 48, 42, 48 and 52 field goals over their last four games. In their last five contests playing with at least a day's rest on the road, they've lost by three in New York, eight and six (in a two-game set) in Memphis, by 20 in Portland and by nine in Los Angeles (against the Lakers). So it's not as if they've been getting their doors blown off away from home. Defensively, San Antonio is arguably the league's worst team and it certainly doesn't head to Chicago in solid form in that regard. With that being said, the Bulls are certainly poised for some regression offensively. Chicago has actually gotten off 81 or fewer field goal attempts in four straight games, but managed to knock down 41 or more of those shots on three occasions over that stretch. I don't think the numbers add up to extended pointspread success. Here, we'll note that the Bulls are a long-term 112-154 ATS when playing at home off consecutive ATS wins. Take San Antonio (10*).

MAAC Game of the Month. My selection is on Mount St. Mary's plus the points over Quinnipiac at 2 pm et on Sunday.

With Mount St. Mary's coming off a 30-point rout at Iona and Quinnipiac winning by 15 points against Fairfield on Friday, most will likely be looking to lay the points with the Bobcats at home on Sunday. I'll go the other way, however, noting that Quinnipiac checks in a long-term 10-24 ATS after winning six or seven of its last eight games, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by just 0.3 points on average in that situation. Mount St. Mary's has held four straight opponents to 56 or fewer field goal attempts (which just happens to be the average number of FG attempts it has allowed per game this season) and can effectively shorten proceedings on Sunday and ultimately keep the Bobcats within arm's reach. Quinnipiac has allowed four straight opponents to hoist up 60 or more FG attempts. While Mount St. Mary's is no offensive juggernaut, it does have a fairly solid floor when it comes to offensive production, knocking down 20 or more field goals in 12 straight games entering Sunday's contest (that's notable given the slow pace it plays at). Take Mount St. Mary's (10*).

Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Washington minus the points over Portland at 7:10 pm et on Friday.

Both of these teams enter this game red hot ATS, although in the case of the Blazers, getting over the hump in that regard has proven difficult. They're coming off consecutive ATS victories (and four in their last five games) but haven't reeled off three straight ATS wins since December 10th to 14th. In that case, the third ATS win came in a rout of the lowly Spurs. The Wizards check in riding a perfect 6-0 SU and ATS streak. Impressively, the last four wins came on the road. They won by 21 points last time out in San Antonio and that's notable as they've gone 24-11 ATS when coming off a double-digit win over the last three seasons. Note that Washington has held seven of its last nine opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals. While that's not all that impressive on the face of it, keep in mind, seven of those nine opponents got off 90 or more field goal attempts. Here, the Wizards are unlikely to face such a shooting barrage as the Blazers have hoisted up fewer than 90 FG attempts in 11 of their last 12 contests. On the flip side, Portland has proven extremely vulnerable defensively, allowing 11 straight opponents to knock down more than 40 field goals. Not only that but they've had no success (or interest) in slowing their opponents' pace, yielding 90 or more FG attempts in four of their last five contests. While these non-conference matchups sometimes leave teams feeling a little flat, I don't think that will be the case for the Wizards, not after they dropped both meetings in this series last season, including a home loss where they were favored by seven points. Look for revenge-minded Washington to gets its payback here. Take Washington (10*).

Pac-12 Game of the Year. My selection is on Colorado minus the points over California at 10 pm et on Thursday.

This is a big revenge spot for Colorado after it was stunned by an 80-76 score against California in the teams' first meeting this season. The Buffaloes enter this contest on the heels of back-to-back losses and defeats in five of their last six games overall, both SU and ATS. I think we'll see a 'sling-shot' effect from the Colorado offense here after it got off 65 and 60 field goal attempts but could only muster a combined 45 made field goals in a pair of games at Oregon and Oregon State last week. Here, the Buffaloes figure to 'get right' against a putrid Cal defense (it ranks 236th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom) that has allowed 27, 31, 27 and 28 made field goals over its last four games - despite holding three of those four opponents to 55 or fewer field goal attempts. On the flip side, Colorado ranks top-20 in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, not to mention the fact it rates out 55th in adjusted tempo (also according to KenPom). I'm not convinced there will be enough scoring opportunities for the Bears to keep this one within reach. They rank a miserable 356th in the nation in adjusted tempo. Colorado has smothered opposing offenses, holding those opponents to 50, 51, 53 and 47 field goal attempts over its last four contests. Take Colorado (10*).

Big 12 Game of the Week. My selection is on Kansas minus the points over Kansas State at 8 pm et on Tuesday.

Kansas State outlasted Kansas in a thriller in Manhattan back on January 17th - an upset that wasn't really an upset. Here, I look for the Jayhawks to exact their revenge as they look to build off a solid 77-68 win over Kentucky. Getting out of the Big 12 for a game was probably a welcome relief for Kansas after it had dropped three straight games SU and five in a row ATS. The Jayhawks got back to a winning formula in that contest, holding the Wildcats to just 51 field goal attempts. I look for them to frustrate the Kansas State offense on Tuesday as well, noting that the Wildcats have touched 25 made field goals just once in three games since reaching that mark in that January 17th win over the Jayhawks. On the occasion where they did they still fell by four points on the road against Iowa State. The Wildcats are coming off a 14-point win over Florida on Saturday. They were fortunate that the Gators couldn't make the most of their scoring opportunities, knocking down only 18 field goals in the defeat. Kansas State isn't likely to be so fortunate here, noting that Kansas connected on an impressive 31 field goals in Saturday's win and averages 29-of-61 shooting here at home this season. While Kansas State has been the far better bet this season - one of the best in the nation in that regard in fact - it has also faced the 39th toughest schedule according to KenPom. Contrast that with Kansas - no team has faced a more difficult slate of opponents than the Jayhawks based on the same metrics. The last time these two in-state rivals met on this floor, the Jayhawks won by 19. In fact, you would have to go back to 2018 to find the last time the Wildcats kept it to a single-digit losing margin on the road against Kansas. Take Kansas (10*).

ACC Game of the Week. My selection is on Syracuse plus the points over Virginia at 7 pm et on Monday.

I'll grab all the points I can get with Syracuse on Monday as it hosts Virginia - which has suddenly vaulted itself into the national title conversation on the heels of six straight wins. Here, I can't help but feel the Cavaliers are in for a letdown after matching a season-high with 30 made field goals in Saturday's rout of Boston College. Of note, Virginia also matched a season-low in ACC play by limiting the Eagles to only 20 made field goals. It figures to face a tougher test on Monday as Syracuse looks to bounce back from consecutive losses. The Orange had impressively knocked down 30, 28, 29, 31, 29 and 23 field goals over its previous six games before shooting just 23-of-49 from the field against Virginia Tech on Saturday. Syracuse allowed the Hokies to make good on 32 field goals in that contest - a season-high allowed from the Orange. Here, we'll note that Virginia is 12-23 ATS after giving up 60 points or less in its previous game over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by just 1.6 points on average in that situation. The Cavaliers are also a miserable 3-11 ATS after winning their previous contest by 15 points or more, outscored by an average of 1.1 points in that spot. The Orange were right there with the Cavaliers for 40 minutes in their first meeting this season. I'm confident this one will go down to the wire at the very least. Take Syracuse (10*).

My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over San Francisco at 3 pm et on Sunday.

We backed the 49ers as our top side play of the entire season last week so I obviously have plenty of respect for the Kyle Shanahan-led squad. With that being said, I feel this is the week to jump off as the Niners enter riding a 12-game winning streak but prepare to face what I feel has been and is the most complete team in the NFL this season. The calf injury to Niners RB Christian McCaffrey is certainly a concern, even if they do have plenty of depth at the position, not to mention other ways to attack the Eagles defense. My concern for San Francisco here is that Philadelphia has the type of pass defense that can all but erase a guy like WR Brandon Aiyuk and even TE George Kittle. Deebo Samuel is still going to get his, especially if McCaffrey is less than 100% healthy but I'm not convinced that will be enough. Offensively, the Eagles are well-positioned to eat with QB Jalen Hurts looking prolific-as-always in last Saturday's rout of the Giants and the WR duo of A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith well-positioned to go off against a middle-of-the-road Niners pass defense. The injury to RB Tony Pollard absolutely derailed the Cowboys hopes of staging an upset of the Niners last Sunday. Here, I'm confident we'll see Eagles RB Miles Sanders have a productive afternoon to keep the San Francisco pass rush honest, noting also that Philadelphia possesses a truly elite offensive line, both in pass and run-blocking. This is a battle of two ultra-talented teams, both coming in playing their best football. I simply feel that the Eagles have a little more on both sides of the football and will ultimately book their ticket for Arizona on Sunday afternoon in the City of Brotherly Love. Take Philadelphia (10*).

Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Orlando plus the points over Miami at 8:10 pm et on Friday.

The Heat enter this game off consecutive wins but both of those games could have gone either way as they beat the Pelicans by four and the Celtics by three. I can't help but feel they're in for a letdown off the big win over the Celtics on Tuesday (they were without Jimmy Butler in that game). The pace alone in Miami's recent contests makes grabbing a generous helping of points an attractive proposition. The Heat's last three games have seen a total of 149, 158 and 168 field goal attempts. Miami checks in having knocked down 33, 35 and 34 field goals over that stretch. In stark contrast, Orlando is as healthy as it has been all season and it shows - at least offensively. The Magic have made good on 40 or more field goals in eight of their last nine games - the lone outlier came in a contest where they still scored 123 points in a double-digit win over New Orleans. Yes, Orlando has gone an ugly 6-17 SU on the road this season but it is a far more respectable 11-11-1 ATS. Compare that with the Heat, who are 16-9 SU but just 8-15-2 ATS on their home floor. When you break down the numbers, the Heat actually don't hold much of an advantage at all in this matchup. Orlando has knocked down one less field goal per game on the road compared to Miami at home, but has done so on two fewer field goal attempts on average. At the other end of the floor, the Magic yield two more made field goals per game on the road compared to the Heat at home, but do so on four additional FG attempts given up per contest. Finally, we'll note that the Heat are a woeful 4-14 ATS when coming off an ATS victory this season, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 3.8 points in that situation. They're also just 5-15 ATS when following up consecutive home wins over the last two seasons, outscored by 1.5 points on average in that spot. Take Orlando (10*).

Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Denver plus the points over Milwaukee at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday.

I understand the logic behind the Nuggets being substantial underdogs here. After all, the Nuggets are in a back-to-back spot, on the road, while the Bucks return home after putting up a ridculous 150 points in a win over the Pistons two nights ago. They're not all that flashy by any means but the Nuggets have won an incredible 20 of their last 24 games. Based on the style Denver is employing right now, it's going to be tough for anyone to beat it by a considerable margin. The Nuggets have held seven straight opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. They've limited 11 consecutive opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals. While Denver has made good on only 36 and 39 field goals in its last two contests that had a lot to do with the snail's pace those two games were played at. Here, they'll have a chance to get loose against a Bucks squad that has allowed their last six opponents to knock down 42, 45, 43, 46, 48 and 43 field goals, going a modest 3-2-1 ATS over that stretch. Yes, Giannis Antetokounmpo just returned two nights ago but this is a team that has figured out how to win without him in recent years. Here, Milwaukee will be missing an underrated contributor in Bobby Portis after he suffered a knee injury. Note that the Bucks are just 29-48 ATS when returning home off a road win over a division opponent going all the way back to 1996. Take Denver (10*).

Big 12 Game of the Week. My selection is on Iowa State minus the points over Kansas State at 9 pm et on Tuesday.

Iowa State checks in off its first ATS defeat in seven games on Saturday as it dropped a narrow two-point decision on the road against Oklahoma State. I'm confident we'll see the Cyclones bounce back on Tuesday, however, as they return home to host Kansas State. The Wildcats enter off consecutive wins, both SU and ATS. I still think this is a team playing with fire as it consistently gives up a ton of scoring opportunities, having allowed all seven opponents in Big 12 play to get off at least 63 field goal attempts and six of those to hoist up 63+. They were fortunate that Texas Tech was unable to make good on its opportunities on Saturday as the Red Raiders knocked down only 23-of-71 field goal attempts in a 68-58 Kansas State victory. We saw a glimpse of what to expect from the Kansas State offense against a smothering defense as it could only muster 20 made field goals on a season-low 47 attempts. Here, it will face an Iowa State squad that has held nine straight opponents to 22 or fewer made field goals. Only one of the Cyclones last six opponents has managed to get off 50+ field goal attempts. On the flip side, Iowa State is coming off a poor shooting performance against Oklahoma State last time out. With that being said, you only have to go back four games to find the last time it made good on more than 30 field goals (34 in a win over Texas Tech). Noting that these two teams have enjoyed similar success this season but Iowa State has faced the 15th most difficult schedule in the country while Kansas State has gone against the 53rd toughest slate of opponents (according to KenPom), we'll lay the points with the Cyclones here. Take Iowa State (10*).

Eastern Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Chicago minus the points over Atlanta at 8:10 pm et on Monday.

Having strung together consecutive wins - as healthy as they've been in a quite a while with both Zach Lavine and Demar Derozan available - and with each of their next four games coming against Eastern Conference opponents, this is where the Bulls need to get on a run if they want to put themselves in good position to reach the playoffs (they currently sit in 10th place in the conference). Tonight's opponent, the Hawks, are one of the teams Chicago is looking up at in the Eastern Conference standings. I like what I've seen from the Bulls lately. Save for a poor showing against the red hot Thunder, they've held four of their last five opponents to 41 or fewer made field goals and have certainly rounded into form offensively, knocking down 48 and 50 field goals themselves over their last two contests. The Hawks have also been hot offensively but their defensive play has left a lot to be desired. Atlanta checks in having allowed its last four opponents to make good on 43, 44, 49 and 45 field goals. Keep in mind, the Hawks are just 11-13 on the road this season, where they've been outscored by an average margin of 2.0 points per contest. The Bulls check in 12-10 at the United Center, outscoring the opposition by 1.7 points on average. To find the last time Atlanta won a game here in Chicago, you would have to go back to December of 2020. Take Chicago (10*).

Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Memphis minus the points over Phoenix at 8:10 pm et on Sunday.

We just saw this matchup on Monday as the Grizzlies rolled to a 30-point home victory. While the Suns would certainly like to get some quick revenge here at home, I don't feel they're well-positioned to do so. Note that Phoenix has been getting healthier with Cam Johnson returning this past Thursday. In fact, the Suns have now won consecutive games after posting a five-point victory against the Pacers last night. But now they're in a tough back-to-back spot with a number of key contributors questionable to play due to injury management or otherwise. Meanwhile, the Grizzlies are just one day removed from a tough one-point loss against the Lakers in Los Angeles. They remain locked-in defensively, having held three of their last four opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals. On the flip side, the Grizz continue to roll along offensively, making good on an incredible 43 or more field goals in 12 consecutive games. In fact, their 43-for-102 shooting performance against the Lakers on Friday was their low-water mark going all the way back to December 27th. The Suns have been lagging defensively. Prior to last night they had allowed their last four opponents to knock down 48, 47, 52 and 43 field goals. Last night's opponent, the Pacers, quite simply had an off night shooting as they actually got off a whopping 96 field goal attempts but only knocked down 36 of them. Usually stingy defensively when full strength, Phoenix has now allowed four of its last six opponents to get off 90 or more FG attempts. I expect the Grizzlies to take advantage on Sunday. Take Memphis (10*).

NFL Game of the Year. My selection is on San Francisco minus the points over Dallas at 6:30 pm et on Sunday.

While the 49ers have been on an incredible run, not to mention the fact they've been the best bet in the NFL since mid-November, I can't help but feel they're just scratching the surface and dare I say still undervalued as they head into the Divisional Round of the playoffs on Sunday.

Yes, the Cowboys impressed in Monday's complete dismantling of Tom Brady and the Buccaneers in Tampa. However, that lopsided result had a lot to do with the inept nature of the Bucs, who by all accounts were nothing more than a middle-of-the-road team all season, benefiting from residing in a weak NFC South division. Tampa Bay didn't exactly throw a haymaker against what was admittedly a well-prepared Dallas squad that looked like a team on a mission after suffering an embarrassing loss on the road against Washington in the final week of the regular season. The Cowboys are in line for a 'shock to the system' here, however, as they stay on the road for a fourth straight game to face a 49ers team that is quite simply 'firing on all cylinders'.

San Francisco took a punch in the first half against the Seahawks last Saturday and I'm glad they did. The fact is, the Niners have faced a fairly breezy schedule going all the way back to mid-November. A little bit of adversity wasn't the worst thing for them to face in the Wild Card round and I believe they're better for it.

To say that the Niners are a difficult team to defend is putting it mildly. They have a multi-pronged attack that is unlikely anything we've seen in recent years and they've been taken to the next level by rookie QB Brock Purdy who continues to prove he is indeed the 'real deal'. The Cowboys have only really faced 'dink-and-dunk' type offenses over the last three games, so again I believe they're in for a bit of a reality check here.

While I have a lot of respect for the Cowboys offense, I'm still not convinced they'll lean as heavily on RB Tony Pollard as they should, still bent on giving Ezekiel Elliott his share of the pie in an offense where he should realistically only play a bit part (in my opinion).

QB Dak Prescott avoided the mistakes that had previously plagued him against the Bucs on Monday, but he was rarely under much duress in that contest. He's sure to face a lot more pressure against the 49ers elite defense here.

The Niners have absolutely stamped out opposing running games this season and likely puts a whole lot more on Dak's plate - similar to what we saw in recent road games against the Titans and Commanders in which the Cowboys ultimately turned the football over five times (they didn't commit a single turnover in Monday's win in Tampa). The 49ers have forced at least one turnover in 10 consecutive games and two or more in eight of those contests.

This is a rematch of last year's Wild Card game between these two teams in Dallas - a game the 49ers won by a 23-17 score. That final score was actually flattering to the Cowboys in my opinion. I expect San Francisco to ultimately pull away for a convincing victory and advance to the NFC Championship Game on Sunday. Take San Francisco (10*).

Central Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Cleveland minus the points over Milwaukee at 7:40 pm et on Saturday.

There's still a cloud of uncertainty around the status of the stars of both of these teams with Giannis Antetokounmpo and Donovan Mitchell questionable to play in Saturday's fourth meeting of the season. It sounds like there's a better chance that Giannis will return than Mitchell but regardless, I like the way this spot sets up for the Cavs at home. Cleveland fell in stunning fashion against a Warriors squad that was resting its stars last night. Needless to say, I think the Cavs took a win for granted given the undermanned nature of the Warriors in that one. I don't expect Cleveland to have any trouble regrouping for a visit from one of the NBA's elite teams in the Bucks. Milwaukee is coming off consecutive near-perfect offensive showings in wins over the Pacers and Raptors at home. Lost in the Bucks recent offensive success is the fact that their defensive play hasn't been up to par. They've allowed their last four opponents to knock down 42, 45, 43 and 46 field goals. They've also had little success (or interest) in slowing their opponents' pace, yielding 92 or more field goal attempts in nine of their last 12 contests. Meanwhile, the Cavs have limited seven of their last nine opponents to 86 or fewer field goal attempts. They're allowing just 39 made field goals per contest at home this season, a big reason they've gone 19-5 SU and 16-8 ATS here in Cleveland. Take Cleveland (10*).

Underdog Game of the Week. My selection is on St. Peter's plus the points over Marist at 7 pm et on Friday.

I like the way this spot sets up for a down-trodden St. Peter's squad that has lost five games in a row, going 1-4 ATS along the way. Marist is at the opposite end of the spectrum right now, having won three straight contests both SU and ATS. Still, I'm anticipating a reversal of those trends on Friday night. St. Peter's continues to play exceptional defensive basketball. The Peacocks always seem to have a terrific defensive system in place and they've stayed true to it this season, holding opponents to an average of just 20 made field goals on 48 attempts per game. Their last three opponents have knocked down just 18, 18 and 19 field goals. I'm confident we'll see St. Peter's frustrate the Marist offense here after it shot exceptionally well over the last few games. Keep in mind, the Red Foxes have actually gotten off 55 or fewer field goal attempts in five straight contests so it's not as if they've had a wealth of scoring opportunities. In stark contrast, St. Peter's has hoisted up 62 or more field goal attempts in three of its last six games. The difference here is, I expect some of those Peacocks shots to start falling, noting that Marist has consistently allowed in the mid-to-high 20's in terms of opponents' made field goals per game this season. Finally, I'll point out that St. Peter's is 68-41 ATS when playing on the road after losing four or five of its last six games going all the way back to 1997, as is the case here. Take St. Peter's (10*).

Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Brooklyn minus the points over Phoenix at 10 pm et on Thursday.

The Nets are fresh off an embarrassing loss in San Antonio two nights ago (we won with the 'under' in that game). That marked their third straight loss although perhaps it was to be expected with Kyrie Irving sidelined (remember Kevin Durant is on the shelf as well). Kyrie is expected to return from that one-game absence on Thursday. The Suns will likely have Cam Johnson back and it sounds like there's an outside chance that Chris Paul could be back in the lineup as well. I simply see a Phoenix squad that is completely out of sorts right now, and will likely remain that way until its regulars get back up to speed. Note that the Suns have been torched for 48, 47 and 52 made field goals over their last three games. While they had been at least limiting their opponents' pace for a stretch, they've now allowed three of their last four foes to get off at least 90 field goal attempts. It's a much different story for Brooklyn. It has held five straight opponents to 41 or fewer made field goals and three of its last five to 38 or less. Offensively, it's been a grind without KD in the lineup but I expect scoring opportunities to be in abundance against a listless Suns defense on Thursday. Note that Phoenix took both meetings between these two teams last season. Look for the revenge-minded Nets to rebound here, noting they've gone 25-10 ATS when playing on the road following an ATS loss over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 5.0 points on average in that situation. Take Brooklyn (10*).

Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Winnipeg -1.5 goals over Montreal at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday.

We'll fade the Canadiens on the puck-line after they pulled off a 2-1 upset victory over the Rangers in New York on Sunday. Note that they'll be playing their third game in four nights in three different cities here on Monday, and they'll do so with a number of key contributors suddenly sidelined with injuries, including Joel Armia, Juraj Slafkovski and Jake Evans. Note that the Habs have gone three games without losing by two goals or more - their longest such streak of the season. I expect that run to end here as the Jets come in playing their best hockey of the season, winners of eight of their last nine games, outscoring the opposition by a 35-24 margin over that stretch. They've allowed a grand total of just four goals over their last three games. This is a matchup Winnipeg has thrived in since the start of last season, taking all three meetings while outscoring Montreal by a 15-8 margin. Take Winnipeg -1.5 goals (10*).

Wild Card Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points first half over Jacksonville at 8:15 pm et on Saturday.

I'm far more interested in backing the Chargers minus the short number in the first half rather than the full game in this one as head coach Brandon Staley's crunch-time coaching decisions have rightfully been called to question ever since he took over the gig. Here, I do think the Bolts have enough early advantages to take a lead into the locker room at halftime.

Note that Los Angeles is 10-1 against the first half line when seeking revenge against an opponent over the last three seasons, as is the case here after the Jaguars boat-raced the Chargers at SoFi Stadium earlier this season. Better still, the Chargers are a perfect 6-0 ATS in the first half when seeking revenge for a same-season loss against an opponent over the same stretch. In that situation, they've outscored opponents by an impressive average margin of 10.8 points in the first half.

Meanwhile, the Jags are a woeful 0-7 ATS against the first half line when playing at home after a division game over the last three seasons, outscored by 10.0 points on average in that spot.

I like the way this matchup sets up on paper for the Chargers as the Jags haven't been particularly stout against the pass this season and have struggled in particular defending opposing running backs that can catch the football. Of course the Bolts have one of the best in that department in Austin Ekeler, who enters the playoffs on a red hot tear. The same goes for QB Justin Herbert, who had a fantastic final two regular season games, tossing four touchdown passes.

It's a different story for Jags sophomore QB Trevor Lawrence. He struggled down the stretch, even in last Saturday's must-win game against the Titans, which the Jags did manage to pull out by the skin of their teeth. Take Los Angeles first half (10*).

Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Chicago minus the points over Oklahoma City at 8:10 pm et on Friday.

The Thunder exercised some demons against the 76ers in Philadelphia last night, winning in convincing, blowout fashion as a considerable underdog (we won with Oklahoma City in that game as well). Here, I believe they'll be hard-pressed to duplicate that effort as they play the second of back-to-back nights against the Bulls in Chicago.

Chicago is fresh off a 100-97 loss in Washington two nights ago to wrap up a brief 0-2 road trip. A return home should help the Bulls cause, noting that they're 11-9 SU at the United Center and will be looking for their third straight victory in the Windy City on Friday.

Of course, the Bulls will likely be without Demar Derozan for a second straight game after he exited Monday's loss in Boston with an injured quad muscle. Zach Lavine suffered a hand contusion in Wednesday's loss in Washington but is expected to be good to go on Friday.

While I'm certainly not banking on it, I do think this could be a 'load management' spot for Thunder superstar Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in a back-to-back situation. He has suited up for two back-to-backs previously this season but sat out the front half of the team's most recent two-game in two-night set on January 3rd. Note that the Thunder will be playing their seventh game in the last 11 nights, in five different cities on Friday night.

While Oklahoma City did prevail last night in Philadelphia, that win snapped a six-game road losing streak. The Thunder are just 6-14 SU away from home this season. Also note that they're a miserable 3-14 ATS when coming off four or five wins in their last six games over the last three seasons, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 12.7 points in that situation.

The Bulls are a long-term 121-90 ATS when coming off consecutive road losses. Take Chicago (10*).

Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Miami minus the points over Milwaukee at 7:40 pm et on Thursday.

This is a classic fade spot for the Heat as they play the second of back-to-back nights off a win in Atlanta last night. In fact, Milwaukee will be looking for third straight win to open its current road trip. However, in a back-to-back spot and knowing it will have another shot at the Heat here in South Beach on Saturday, I'm not convinced we see the Bucks best effort on Thursday.

Miami was undermanned but prevailed by a single point against Oklahoma City two nights ago. Here, the Heat should have Bam Adebayo back on the floor as they look to secure a second straight victory.

Despite the ATS loss against the Thunder, the Heat remain a solid 6-3 ATS over their last nine contests. They're just 6-14 ATS at home this season, laying inflated numbers on most nights, but that's not the case here. At the very least, the Heat have managed to outscore the opposition by 0.3 points on average on their home floor (which is more than can be said about the Bucks on the road, as you'll read below).

Milwaukee has been a better bet on the road than the Heat have been at home, but it still just 8-10 ATS on the highway, where it has been outscored by an average margin of 3.8 points.

Note that Milwaukee has gone a woeful 21-37 ATS after winning four of its last five games over the last three seasons, as is the case here. Take Miami (10*).

Big West Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Cal State-Bakersfield plus the points over Cal-Santa Barbara at 10 pm et on Wednesday.

In what projects as a low-scoring battle between these two Big West Conference foes, I'll grab all the points I can get with the underdog home side. Bakersfield checks in off a blowout road loss at Cal-Davis but has managed to cover the spread in each of its last two home contests. Santa Barbara rides an eight-game winning streak into this one but failed to cover for the first time in its last six lined games in a five-point victory at Cal-Poly last time out. You would have to go back eight games to find the last time Bakersfield allowed an opponent to get off more than 52 field goal attempts. You would have to go back the same number of games to find the last time one of its opponents knocked down more than 22 field goals. It all adds up to a lot of tightly-contested affairs. The argument can certainly be made that Bakersfield is the better defensive team in this matchup, especially when you consider it has faced the 203rd most difficult schedule in the country this season according to KenPom, compared to Santa Barbara which has gone against the 319th toughest slate of opponents by the same metric. Bakersfield has dropped the last two meetings in this series by 12 and 19 points but that's after the first four were each decided by seven points or less. Take Cal State-Bakersfield (10*).

America East Game of the Year. My selection is on Maine minus the points over New Hampshire at 7 pm et on Wednesday.

Maine has lost five games in row entering this conference clash, yet two perhaps three of those five losses just as easily could have gone the Black Bears way. Maine has faced the 231st most difficult schedule in the nation this season according to KenPom - certainly not something to get too excited about. However, tonight's opponent, New Hampshire, has gone against the 329th toughest slate of opponents. The Wildcats are off a big outright underdog home win over Vermont as nine-point underdogs last time out. They've recorded back-to-back ATS wins just once this season, back in early December. Note that UNH is a miserable 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games following a win over an America East opponent, outscored by 5.3 points on average in that situation. Take Maine (10*).

Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Mercer plus the points over Furman at 7 pm et on Wednesday.

I really like the way this spot sets up for underdog Mercer, a team that's not all that accustomed to being in that role here at home. The Bears have lost four games in a row both SU and ATS but I fully expect them to bounce back here as they catch Furman off consecutive wins and covers, with the most recent coming on the road against East Tennessee State. Note that while Furman is 8-1 SU at home this season, it has only managed to split its eight road contests to date. Mercer is 4-3 on its home floor compared to 3-7 on the road. I'll also point out that Furman has faced the 313th toughest schedule in the country this season according to KenPom - in other words, the Palladins have been padding their 12-5 record with a rather weak slate of opponents. I like the fact that despite facing the tougher schedule, the Bears have actually posted the better defensive numbers, allowing three fewer made field goals per game despite allowing just one less attempt per contest in comparison with the Palladins. You can be sure this is a game the Bears have had circled all season after dropping all three meetings with Furman last season. Take Mercer (10*).

Big 12 Game of the Year. My selection is on Oklahoma State plus the points over Kansas State at 7 pm et on Tuesday.

I really like the way this one sets up for Oklahoma State in an underdog role in Manhattan on Tuesday. The Cowboys check in just 9-6 on the season - a far cry from Kansas State's sterling 14-1 mark. However, Oklahoma State has faced the 24th most difficult schedule in the country this season according to KenPom. Kansas State ranks 87th in that department. In spite of that, the Cowboys have been the superior defensive team in my opinion, allowing two fewer made field goals on two more attempts per game compared to the Wildcats. It's rare that we see Kansas State win a game in this series by margin. You would have to go back seven meetings to find the the last time the Wildcats won by more than three points - all the way to February of 2019. On the heels of eight straight victories, the last three coming in ATS fashion as well including back-to-back upset wins at Texas and Baylor, I can't help but feel a letdown is in order for the Wildcats here. Take Oklahoma State (10*).

MAAC Game of the Month. My selection is on Rider plus the points over Siena at 2 pm et on Sunday.

I'll grab all the points I can get with the underdog Broncs here as they look to snap their brief two-game skid (they've lost three in a row ATS) on the road against Siena on Sunday afternoon. The Saints have reeled off five consecutive victories both SU and ATS, including four outright wins as short underdogs (+3.5 points or less). I simply like the way Rider has limited its opponents scoring opportunities, even in losing efforts over the last two games, with its last two foes getting off just 49 and 55 field goal attempts. Siena has allowed two of its last three opponents to hoist up 60 or more FG attempts. On the flip side, the Saints have topped out at 53 or less FG attempts in five of their last six contests, making them difficult to trust laying a considerable number of points here. Take Rider (10*).

AFC West Game of the Month. My selection is on Las Vegas plus the points over Kansas City at 4:30 pm et on Saturday.

I simply feel the Raiders are a dangerous team with nothing to lose here in Week 18 of the regular season. We certainly saw plenty of fight from Las Vegas last Sunday as it gave San Francisco all it could handle but ultimately lost by a field goal for the second straight week. QB Jarrett Stidham gave the Raiders offense some life and I think we'll see some carry-over effect from last week's performance here. The Chiefs are just 6-10 ATS on the season, including 3-5 ATS away from home. Meanwhile, the Raiders check in an impressive 5-2 ATS here at Allegiant Stadium. While Kansas City has won four straight games, three of those contests could have gone either way. Who knows what the future holds for the Raiders franchise on many fronts, but here I look for them to give the division-rival Chiefs all they can handle in the regular season finale for both teams. Take Las Vegas (10*).

Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Toronto minus the points over New York at 7:40 pm et on Friday.

The Raptors are coming off an absolutely dreadful offensive display against Milwaukee two nights ago as they shot worse than 33% from the field yet still somehow rallied to force overtime in an eventual three-point loss. They check into this game off consecutive SU and ATS losses but I'm confident they'll bounce back against the division-rival Knicks on Friday. Note that New York has won three games in a row but those victories all came against down-trodden squads in the Rockets, Suns and Spurs, with the last two coming on their home floor. They're still just 2-5-1 ATS over their last eight games. You would have to go back 12 meetings here in Toronto - all the way to 2015 - to find the last time they won a game in Toronto. While laying points with the Raptors given their current state seems a little dicey, they've managed to cover the spread in all but two of their 16 straight-up victories this season, and both of those wins still came by four or more points. While the Raps are as healthy as they've been all season, the Knicks are without one of their best players, R.J. Barrett. This is a critical six-game homestand for the Raptors as it will likely decide whether or not they'll be 'selling' at the trade deadline. All is not lost after dropping the opener, I look for them to bounce back here. Take Toronto (10*).

Big Sky Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Portland State plus the points over Eastern Washington at 9 pm et on Thursday.

I really like the way this one sets up for Portland State and perhaps more so as a fade of Eastern Washington, which rolls in on the heels of seven consecutive ATS wins. Portland State has won just once in its last five games although it was the underdog in all five contests so perhaps that was to be expected. The Vikings have faced the 54th most difficult schedule in the country this season according to KenPom. By contrast, Eastern Washington has gone against the 131rd toughest slate of opponents. I like the consistency the Vikings have shown offensively, knocking down 29, 24, 26 and 23 field goals over their last four games while also limiting nine straight opponents to 58 or fewer field goal attempts. It's a different story for Eastern Washington, particularly at the defensive end of the floor as it has allowed three straight and four of its last five opponents to hoist up more than 60 field goal attempts. Portland State has lost five straight meetings in this series but three of those games were decided by five points or less and the other two were settled by eight points. I expect the Vikings to at the very least take this one down to the wire. Take Portland State (10*).

Sun Belt Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Louisiana minus the points over Southern Miss at 8 pm et on Thursday.

Color me unimpressed by Southern Miss' 13-2 record this season as it has faced the 316th most difficult schedule in the country this season according to KenPom. The Golden Eagles ride into this game off consecutive victories while Louisiana has dropped each of its last three contests and four in a row ATS. Note that the Ragin' Cajuns have gone against the 175th toughest slate of opponents by the same strength of schedule metric. Louisiana owns a perfect 5-0 record at home this season where it has outscored opponents by just shy of 30.0 points per contest. This is obviously a tougher matchup although it's worth noting that Louisiana handled Southern Miss by 21 points in last season's lone meeting. Southern Miss started the season hot on the road but has now dropped two of its last three away from home, with the lone win coming as a -13.5-point favorite against Lamar. Take Louisiana (10*).

Underdog Game of the Week. My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Brooklyn at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday.

The Nets look unstoppable right now having won 12 straight games. I don't think we'll see Chicago back down easily on Wednesday, however, noting that the Bulls already defeated the Nets in Brooklyn this season and have taken three of four matchups in this series going back to the start of last season. The Bulls are fresh off a tough overtime loss against the Cavs on Monday as Cleveland got an other-worldly performance from Donovan Mitchell. At 5-2-1 ATS over its last eight games, Chicago does continue to play well. Here, I think the Nets are in for a letdown after absolutely shooting the lights out (60% or better from the field) in consecutive games. While Chicago is just an even 9-9 on its home floor this season, it has managed to outscored the opposition by an average margin of 1.1 points. The Nets are 12-7 on the road but outscore opponents by just 1.9 points on average. I simply feel the Bulls are catching too many points here. Take Chicago (10*).

ACC Game of the Month. My selection is on Georgia Tech plus the points over Miami at 7 pm et on Wednesday.

I like the way this spot sets up for Georgia Tech as it looks to snap Miami's nine-game winning streak on Wednesday night. The Hurricanes roll in red hot off consecutive ATS wins, including an outright underdog win over Virginia and most recently a double-digit road victory against Notre Dame. Still, we'll note that the Canes have faced just the 132nd most difficult schedule in the country this season while Georgia Tech has gone against the 70th toughest slate of opponents (according to KenPom). The Yellow Jackets will obviously be amped up for this matchup as they check in off consecutive blowout home losses against Clemson and Virginia. Things won't get any easier after this game with road tilts against Florida State and Notre Dame on deck. This is undoubtedly a matchup the Jackets have had circled after dropping both matchups against the Canes last season. Of note, they were listed a just three-point underdogs in last year's home meeting with Miami. Georgia Tech is a long-term 79-53 ATS when coming off a game in which it scored 60 points or less, as is the case here, and also 81-52 ATS when following consecutive losses against conference opponents. Take Georgia Tech (10*).

MAC Game of the Year. My selection is on Buffalo plus the points over Ohio at 7 pm et on Tuesday.

I really like the way this one sets up for Buffalo as it looks to rebound after suffering losses in three of its last four games. There's really no shame in that slide as the three losses came against Tulane, West Virginia and Michigan State with none of those contests coming at home. Even against Tulane the Bulls were seven-point underdogs. All told, Buffalo has faced the 23rd most difficult schedule in the nation this season according to KenPom. In stark contrast, Ohio has gone against the 196th toughest slate of opponents. In spite of that, Ohio is just 2-5 on the road while Buffalo checks in 4-1 on its home floor. This is undoubtedly a game the Bulls have had circled since dropping last year's matchup against the Bobcats by an ugly 74-53 score as a 2.5-point home favorite. In fact, Ohio has taken the last two meetings between these MAC schools but that's its longest win streak in this series since winning seven in a row over the Bulls from 2011 to 2014. Take Buffalo (10*).

Big East Game of the Month. My selection is on St. John's plus the points over Marquette at 6:30 pm et on Tuesday.

The Red Storm got off to a hot start this season but check into this matchup on the heels of three straight losses both SU and ATS. Shooting woes have cost them lately but I look for them to get that straightened out against Marquette on Tuesday. While the Golden Eagles have been terrific this season and check in off consecutive victories, including an outright underdog win at Villanova last time out, it's worth noting that they're still just an even 3-3 on the road (they've suffered only four losses the entire season so that's notable). Meanwhile, St. John's is 8-1 at home and will be eager to erase the memory of an 84-79 loss to Xavier the last time it took the floor here on December 28th. Note that the Red Storm are 20-8 ATS when playing at home after losing six or seven of their last eight games ATS going all the way back to 1997, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 8.6 points in that spot. Take St. John's (10*).

Big Ten Game of the Month. My selection is on Purdue minus the points over Rutgers at 7 pm et on Monday.

The Boilermakers have been absolutely burning bettors for over a month now, going 0-6-1 ATS over their last seven contests going all the way back to November 30th. I expect that slump to end here, however, as they host seemingly red hot Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights have reeled off three straight wins both SU and ATS but streaks aren't all created equal. Note that Rutgers has faced the 249th toughest schedule in the country this season according to KenPom. That's in stark contrast to Purdue, which has gone against the 128th most difficult slate of opponents. Both teams are coming off consecutive glorified scrimmages against overmatched opponents. Here, I can't help but feel Rutgers is in for a 'shock to its system' after getting off 67 and 75 field goal attempts in its last two games and now facing a Purdue squad that allows just 56 FG attempts per contest here at home this season. Take Purdue (10*).

Non-Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on New York minus the points over Indianapolis at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Colts are going to be in tough playing on the road on a short week with a seemingly lame duck head coach in Jeff Saturday not to mention a journeyman quarterback nearing the end of his career in Nick Foles. Nothing worked for the Colts in Monday's loss to the Chargers - on either side of the football. Things aren't likely to get any better here as they hit the road to face the playoff-hungry Giants who are coming off a disappointing last-second loss against the Vikings last Sunday. Credit New York for hanging in there despite the red hot Minnesota offense racking up 270 yards through the air on 34 Kirk Cousins pass completions. While it never feels all that comfortable laying more than a field goal with an offensively-limited team such as the Giants, the fact is they've been winning by margin. Since opening the season with consecutive wins by a field goal or less, their last six victories have come by 8, 5, 4, 6, 8 and 8 points. That's four out of six victories by more than the spread we're dealing with this week (at the time of writing) with the other two coming against potential playoff-bound teams in the Packers and Ravens. I like the fact that Giants RB Saquon Barkley should be fresh for this one after a limited workload last Sunday in Minnesota (the Giants ran the football 21 times - their lowest rush attempt total since Thanksgiving in Dallas). Also helping New York's cause is the absence of one of Indianapolis' best defenders in slot corner Kenny Moore. Take New York (10*).

Mountain West Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Wyoming plus the points over New Mexico at 4 pm et on Saturday.

Wyoming has more than just held its own against New Mexico in recent years, taking three of four meetings between these two teams since the start of the 2020-21 season. Here, the Cowboys will look to hand the Lobos their first loss of the season, and I'm confident they'll do just that on Saturday afternoon in Laramie. Note that Wyoming enters this game off three consecutive losses both SU and ATS. None of those games were played at home, where the Cowboys have reeled off consecutive wins (both SU and ATS), scoring more than 90 points on each occasion. New Mexico is a perfect 13-0 SU on the campaign and rides a three-game ATS winning streak into this showdown. However, the Lobos have only faced the 264th most difficult schedule in the country this season according to KenPom. For comparison's sake, Wyoming has faced the 185th toughest slate of opponents. Take Wyoming (10*).

Pac-12 Game of the Month. My selection is on Washington State plus the points over UCLA at 11 pm et on Friday.

We'll grab all the points we can get with Washington State in this Pac-12 matchup as the Cougars look to snap their two-game skid - which represents their longest losing streak of the season. Washington State has fallen out of favor with bettors on the heels of three consecutive ATS losses, but I simply feel they're catching too many points here. UCLA has won eight straight games, including three in a row ATS heading in. The Bruins current three-game ATS win streak includes victories over Maryland and Kentucky but I can't help but feel that leaves them overvalued here. Note that while UCLA has faced a tough schedule - 69th most difficult in the nation according to KenPom - Washington State has gone against the 38th toughest. Take Washington State (10*).

Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Portland minus the points over Golden State at 10:10 pm et on Friday.

The Warriors have inexplicably gone on a three-game winning streak without a number of key contributors including Steph Curry and Andrew Wiggins but I look for that run to end here against the Blazers. Portland snapped a three-game losing streak with a home win over Charlotte last time out. This is undoubtedly a game the Blazers have had circled after dropping all three meetings with the Warriors last season, including a 132-95 home loss in their most recent matchup last February. The Warriors have actually allowed their opponents to get off 94, 92 and 91 field goal attempts over the course of their three-game winning streak. Those three opponents just haven't been able to make good on their wealth of opportunities. I don't expect the Blazers to suffer a similar fate tonight. Portland 'got right' offensively last time out, knocking down 43-of-86 FG attempts and should keep it rolling here. Take Portland (10*).

Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on South Dakota plus the points over St. Thomas at 8 pm et on Thursday.

I really like the way this sets up as a bounce-back spot for South Dakota as it enters off a stunningly-poor offensive effort against UMKC. USD has now dropped four games in a row both SU and ATS after opening the campaign with five victories in its first eight contests. St. Thomas on the other hand rolls in riding a four-game winning streak, both SU and ATS. It won its most recent road game by a 76-70 score at Idaho State. Here, we'll note that St. Thomas has yet to register consecutive road victories this season. Meanwhile, South Dakota has outscored opponents by an average margin of 9.1 points in its last nine home games when coming off an upset loss, as is the case here. Take South Dakota (10*).

Bowl Game of the Year. My selection is on Memphis minus the points over Utah State at 3:15 pm et on Tuesday.

To put it simply, I believe Memphis is a better team than its 6-6 overall record would seem to indicate while Utah State is worse than it's own six-win campaign shows. Utah State opened the season with four losses in its first five games - with the only win coming against a down-trodden (at the time) UConn squad that was just figuring things out. From there the Aggies posted a stunning win over Air Force (with the benefit of playing that game at home) and then got on a bit of a run in early November thanks to a forgiving slate of games that saw them face New Mexico and San Jose State at home and lowly Hawaii on the road. Only one of those three victories came in comfortable fashion (against New Mexico). The Aggies are expected to have RB Calvin Tyler for this game, despite him declaring for the NFL Draft. I'm always hesitant to project playing time for players in similar situations in these lower-end Bowl games. Third-string QB Cooper Legas is expected to start once again. He's proven to be a sack-taking and interception-throwing machine this season in place of Utah State's best two options at the position. Memphis saw three of its six losses during the regular season come by a field goal or less. I liked what I saw out of the Tigers down the stretch as they beat Tulsa handily at home and gave SMU all it could handle on the road in going a perfect 3-0 ATS over their last three contests. Stout against the run (they've allowed just 3.5 yards per rush this season with an insignificant drop-off when playing away from home) they're well-positioned to slow down the Aggies inconsistent offense here. Speaking of consistency, Memphis has scored at least 24 points in all 12 games this season. Utah State was held under the number on five different occasions during the regular season. I like the fact that Memphis head coach Ryan Silverfield was given a vote of confidence despite the middling campaign. He's been told that he will be back for the 2023 season. Take Memphis (10*).

Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Minnesota plus the points over Miami at 7:40 pm et on Monday.

I'll grab all the points I can get with the T'Wolves here as I'm confident they can at the very least take this game down to the wire in a matchup of two teams riding two-game losing streaks. Minnesota had won three games in a row prior to dropping tough decisions against the Mavericks and Celtics. They still enter Monday's contest having made good on 42 or more field goals in five straight games, while holding three of their last six opponents to 34 or fewer made shots. Miami had also been hot prior to dropping its last two games, winners of four in a row. I don't see the same level of consistency from the Heat offense, however, noting that they've been limited to fewer than 40 made field goals in seven of their last 10 contests. Interestingly, the T'Wolves have knocked down four more field goals per game than the Heat this season, despite getting off just one more field goal attempt per contest. At the other end of the floor, Minnesota has allowed one more made field goal but on five additional attempts yielded to opponents. The T'Wolves should come in with confidence having taken all three meetings in this series going back to last season, including a 113-104 win here in Miami last March. Take Minnesota (10*).

Bowl Game of the Week. My selection is on Houston minus the points over Louisiana at 3 pm et on Friday.

I really like the way this Bowl matchup sets up for Houston, which had a down year by program standards but still managed to win seven games and I believe will get up for this matchup against Louisiana. Note that QB Clayton Tune and WR Nathaniel Dell both announced that they'll play in this game - a clear sign that the team is taking this Bowl appearance seriously. Dell in particular could have easily opted out after declaring for the NFL Draft. It's a much different story for Louisiana, which will be missing its top wide receiver and perhaps best offensive player in WR Michael Jefferson. Remember, the Ragin' Cajuns already lost QB Ben Wooldridge for the season back in November. Backup Chandler Fields has held his own but has taken a ton of sacks given his limited playing time and has also proven to be turnover-prone through the air. Houston didn't have a banner campaign from a defensive standpoint - far from it, in fact - but it is just one game removed from its best defensive performance of the season in a 42-3 rout of East Carolina, on the road no less. Louisiana faced a relatively weak schedule this season and fell hard (by a 49-17 score) in a late step-up game against Florida State. The Ragin' Cajuns enter this contest off a 41-13 win at Texas State but it's worth noting that they went 0-3 SU and ATS after scoring 30 or more points in a game this season, dropping those three decisions by 12, 15 and 32 points. Take Houston (10*).

AFC Game of the Year. My selection is on New York minus the points over Jacksonville at 8:15 pm et on Thursday.

While the presence of Zach Wilson under center will keep a lot of bettors off the Jets on Thursday night, I'm not in that group as I expect them to take full advantage of this winnable in-conference matchup in primetime. Last Sunday's game had a dream setup for the Jets as they hosted the Lions who happened to be in a prime letdown spot. New York had every opportunity to win that game but ultimately fell apart late, allowing Detroit to sneak through the back door with a late touchdown. Here, I don't believe Jacksonville will be so fortunate. The Jags of course pulled off a stunning home upset over the Cowboys last Sunday, rallying from down big early to steal a victory in overtime. That win didn't come without a price, however, as the Jags lost key offensive lineman Cam Robinson and now go against a fierce Jets defense that I'm still not sure gets enough praise or credit for all it has accomplished this season. The Jags offense is undoubtedly on the rise but here, on a short week, off that massive performance last Sunday, I can't help but feel a letdown is in order. I mentioned the presence of Jets QB Zach Wilson earlier. He's starting out of necessity only as Mike White remains sidelined. I actually thought Wilson had one of his better games against the Lions last Sunday, even if he did make a couple of boneheaded mistakes. Here, I don't think we'll see the Jets heap too much on Wilson's plate. The Jags don't defend the pass particularly well, nor do they do a great job of containing opposing running backs, both on the ground and in the short passing game. Note that Jacksonville will be without one of its best pass rushers in first overall draft pick Travon Walker for this one. I believe this line will prove too short in favor of the home side. Take New York (10*).

Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Cleveland minus the points over Milwaukee at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday.

We'll take this opportunity to fade the Cavs, who check in 8-5 straight-up on the road this season but have been outscored by an average margin of 3.0 points per contest. The Cavs are 15-2 on their home floor, laying waste to the opposition by an average margin of 10.3 points per game. While it's true Milwaukee just dismantled a good New Orleans team in a 128-119 victory in the Big Easy two nights ago, the Bucks are also just two games removed from a 41-point rout at the hands of the Grizzlies in Memphis. The Cavs are riding a four-game winning streak and will have revenge in mind here after dropping the first two meetings in this series this season (both games were played in Milwaukee). Cleveland took both matchups on its home floor last season and neither game was all that competitive with the Cavs winning by 16 and 18 points. Take Cleveland (10*).

MNF Game of the Month. My selection is on Green Bay minus the points over Los Angeles at 8:15 pm et on Monday.

Credit the Rams for rallying, led by QB Baker Mayfield, a week ago Thursday, stunning the Raiders with a pair of late touchdowns to steal a victory at home. That win had more to do with Las Vegas taking its foot off the gas than anything else - something I don't expect the Packers to do in front of their home faithful at Lambeau Field on Monday. It's easy to forget Green Bay actually won (and covered) in its most recent game two weeks ago in Chicago. That solid performance against a 'tough out' in the Bears proved that the Pack haven't given up on the season. In fact, I believe their trajectory is pointed up with their offense finally coming around and well-positioned to feast against an Aaron Donald-less Rams defense on Monday. RB Aaron Jones has been dealing with a multitude of injuries but coming off the bye week should be as healthy as he's been in quite some time, and he stands to benefit more than anyone on the Packers offense from the absence of Donald and key run-stopper A'Shawn Robinson. All of the talk last week was about Baker Mayfield somehow absorbing enough of the Rams offensive playbook in just two days (he had signed with the team earlier in the week). Now he's had a little more time to digest the Rams offensive scheme so many expect him to come out firing on Monday. I expect precisely the opposite, noting that Mayfield is still operating behind a poor run and pass blocking offensive line (mostly due to injuries) and with a limited group of weapons around him. Green Bay, despite its overall struggles this season, has remained stout against the pass and should be able to snuff out any thought of Mayfield stringing together a second straight solid performance. Take Green Bay (10*).

Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Detroit +1.5 goals over Washington at 7:05 pm et on Monday.

I like the spot for the Red Wings here as they look to snap their five-game losing streak against the Capitals in Washington on Monday. Detroit fell by a 6-3 score in a game that was closer than the final score indicated against Ottawa on Saturday. Here, we'll note that the Red Wings are 9-3 when coming off consecutive losses by three goals or more over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 0.7 goals on average in that situation. Meanwhile, the Capitals are just 8-15 when playing at home after scoring four goals or more in their previous game over the same stretch, outscored by 0.2 goals on average in that spot. Washington has allowed 3.7 goals per game while being outscored by 0.8 goals on average when coming off six or seven wins in its last eight games over the last two seasons (13-game sample size), as is the case here. While the Wings are just 6-8 on the road this season, they've only been outscored by an average margin of 0.3 goals. We'll grab the insurance goal here. Take Detroit +1.5 goals (10*).

NFC Division Game of the Month. My selection is on San Francisco minus the points over Seattle at 8:15 pm et on Thursday.

I think a lot of bettors are talking themselves into backing the home divisional underdog in Seattle on Thursday but I feel it's the wrong move. I don't believe 49ers QB Brock Purdy is going to be a 'one-and-done' story. Yes, he is probably getting too much hype off last Sunday's monster first half against the Buccaneers. That doesn't mean that he can't enjoy continued success, however. The fact is, the Niners gameplan should be focused around getting RB Christian McCaffrey the ball here anyway as the Seahawks have been dismal against the run and could be without one of their best run-stoppers in DT Al Woods after he suffered an achilles injury in last Sunday's loss to the Panthers. The Niners have injury issues of their own, of course, most notably to do-it-all WR Deebo Samuel. This is a deep offense, however, and I'm confident we'll see guys like George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk and even Jauan Jennings step up in Samuel's absence. While San Francisco has yielded plenty of yardage to opposing wide receivers this season, that's really only because it has been playing from ahead so much and opponents have bailed on their ground attacks after gaining little headway. How about this - the Niners last six opponents have run for 56, 51, 67, 63, 33 and 69 yards. While I am high on Seahawks rookie RB Kenneth Walker, who is expected to return from injury here, I'm not convinced he'll do anything other than run into the Niners line over and over again on Thursday. Seattle allowed a whopping 30 points to the lowly Panthers last week. That's notable when you consider the Niners haven't allowed 30 points over their last three-and-a-half games. In fact, the Seahawks have yielded 93 points over their last three contests while San Francisco hasn't given up that many points over its last six games combined. I did consider playing the Niners on the moneyline here given the fact that we have seen a number of games decided by a field goal or less between these division rivals over the years. However, noting that the straight-up winner has gone a perfect 10-0 ATS in games where the line closed at a field goal or less involving these teams this season, I'll confidently lay the points with the visitors here. Take San Francisco (10*).

Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Houston at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday.

This is undoubtedly a game the Suns have had circled since dropping an embarrassing 122-121 decision at home against the Rockets on December 2nd. That loss seemed to send Phoenix into a bit of a tailspin as it enters Tuesday's contest on a four-game losing streak. I expect the Suns to bounce back in a big way here, even without Devin Booker in the lineup. Note that Phoenix is 14-4 ATS when playing on the road after losing four or five of its last six games over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by 9.0 points on average in that spot. The Suns are an identical 14-4 ATS when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponents as a favorite of seven points or more over the same stretch, outscoring the opposition by a whopping 13.4 points on average in that situation. Perhaps better still, they're 9-1 ATS when following up a loss by six points or less over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 19.9 points on average along the way. As for the Rockets, they're 9-21 as a home underdog of six points or less over the last three seasons, outscored by 7.9 points on average in that spot and 8-20 ATS after giving up 105 points or less in their last game over the same stretch, outscored by an average margin of 9.4 points. Take Phoenix (10*).

TNF Game of the Year. My selection is on Las Vegas minus the points over Los Angeles at 8:15 pm et on Thursday.

We actually backed the injury-riddled Rams in Kansas City two weeks ago - a game in which they did sniff out an ATS and ultimately delivered a 'push' for most bettors. They followed that up with a loss but cover against the Seahawks last Sunday in a game that featured a misleading final score in my opinion. Were it not for Seahawks RB Kenneth Walker going down to injury early in that contest, I do think Seattle would have run up the score. Note that it scored touchdowns on two of its first three offensive drives before Walker was forced to exit the game and the Seahawks balance disappeared. This Rams defense is a mess without DTs Aaron Donald and A'Shawn Robinson, unable to generate much push or clog up the middle. The Raiders have precisely the type of offense that can expose the L.A. defense with RB Josh Jacobs running as well as anyone in the league, even if he is a little nicked-up (few players are 100% healthy at this stage of the season). With corner Jalen Ramsey having a miserable time on an island on this Rams defense, Raiders WR Davante Adams figures to smash in this spot. In last Sunday's game, Seahawks WRs Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf went off, hauling in a combined 17 catches for 255 yards and two scores. The sky is the limit for Adams here. On the flip side, the Raiders defense is rounding into form at the right time with the duo of Chandler Jones and Maxx Crosby terrorizing opposing offensive lines. Of course, the Rams boast one of the league's worst o-lines with QB John Wolford absorbing four sacks last week and now dealing with a neck injury, potentially leaving this game in the hands of newly-signed QB Baker Mayfield, who is with his third different team since last season and has had about two days to learn the playbook. While I don't love backing a team that has reeled off three consecutive ATS wins at this stage of the season, I feel we can confidently back the Raiders against a Rams squad that is already looking ahead to next year. Take Las Vegas (10*).

Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over New York at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday.

I like the setup for this play on Wednesday as the Hawks come off a disappointing home loss as a six-point favorite against the Thunder last time out while the Knicks check in off an outright underdog win over the Cavs on their home floor on Sunday. That was an easy game for New York to get up for after it got throttled at home just over 24 hours earlier against the Mavericks. I suspect it will be a little tougher for the Knicks here, noting that they're still just 3-6 SU and ATS over their last nine contests. Here, we'll note also that the Knicks are 16-22 ATS when coming off an outright underdog win over the last three seasons while the Hawks are 20-17 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite over the same stretch. Take Atlanta (10*).

Knockout Stage Game of the Year. My selection is on Morocco +1 goal over Spain at 10 am et on Tuesday.

I think a lot of casual bettors saw all they needed from Spain in its boot-stomping 7-0 rout of Costa Rica two weeks ago. Since then, the Spaniards have managed a draw against Germany and a defeat at the hands of Japan to ultimately finish second in their group, leading to a date with upstart Morocco in the knockout stage on Tuesday. This is likely the matchup that Spain actually wanted - that was evident in its late game activity when trailing against Japan last time out. I do think this could be a 'be careful what you wish for' situation, however, as Morocco can give it trouble in my opinion. Here, we'll note that Morocco in now undefeated in its last nine matches across all competitions. It has successfully put the opposition on its back foot more often than not, striking first in six of its last eight contests. So again, its short-term success in this tournament hasn't been a fluke by any means. Of course, facing Spain is no easy task as it has scored first in five consecutive matches. With that being said, this is a side that has only managed to come away victorious in five of its last 10 contests overall with three of those victories coming by more than a single goal. I believe there's a good chance we see these two sides all square through 90 minutes, similar to what we saw from Japan and Croatia yesterday. But rather than play the 'draw' we'll give due respect to Morocco and catch a little insurance in the process. Take Morocco +1 goal (8*).

AFC Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on Houston plus the points over Cleveland at 1 pm et on Sunday.

This is a game that the Texans have likely been waiting for just as long as the Browns have as Cleveland gives former-Texan Deshaun Watson his long-awaited first start with his new team following a long suspension. This is a prime letdown spot for Cleveland after it pulled out an improbable 23-17 overtime win over Tom Brady and the Buccaneers last Sunday. I'm not ready to start believing in this 4-7 team just yet, however, noting they had lost consecutive games by a combined margin of 30 points prior to that upset victory. Cleveland has won just once on the road this season and that victory came by only two points in Carolina way back in Week 1. Here, the Browns are laying more than a touchdown. Houston is riding a season-high six-game losing streak and has dropped the cash in a season-high three consecutive games as well. I do feel that QB Kyle Allen gives them a better chance to win than Davis Mills at this point. The reality is the offense should run through RB Dameon Pierce and he figures to eat against a Browns defense that has struggled mightily against the run this season. Note that this is also a 'revenge game' for Houston after it dropped a 31-21 decision in Cleveland last year. There are very few spots where I would recommend backing the Texans the rest of the way, but this just happens to be one of them. Take Houston (10*).

NFC East Game of the Month. My selection is on New York plus the points over Washington at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Commanders have won three games in a row to climb into the playoff conversation in the NFC. I expect a letdown here, however, as they hit the road to face the Giants on Sunday. Washington has benefited from a 7-3 turnover margin in its favor over its last three contests. Here, I can't help but feel we'll see the Giants wreak havoc defensively against Commanders QB Taylor Heinicke, who I do feel has been walking the thin line between success and failure over the last few games. Getting back Evan Neal on the offensive line should pay immediate dividends for Giants RB Saquon Barkley, who has admittedly struggled in recent weeks. Once again, not much will be asked of QB Daniel Jones. The hope here is that he's tasked with playing with a lead rather than from behind as we saw last week against Dallas. Note that Washington is a long-term loser in the role of favorite, going 70-103 ATS. Meanwhile, New York has delivered the cash 11 of the last 13 times it has come off a Thursday game, as is the case here. Take New York (10*).

Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Wichita State plus the points over Kansas State at 9 pm et on Saturday.

Kansas State took last year's matchup between these two teams by six points in what turned out to be a sloppy affair with both squads shooting worse than 36% from the field. In what projects to be another relatively low-scoring contest, I believe grabbing the generous helping of points with the underdog Shockers is the right decision. Both teams enter this game off a loss and in the case of Kansas State, it was its first defeat of the young season. I'm not convinced the Wildcats are quite as good as their record indicates. Note that Kansas State is allowing just one fewer made field goal per contest compared to Wichita State this season, despite yielding 12 fewer field goal attempts. In a similar vein, the Wildcats are giving up two fewer made threes per game, but that's on 10 fewer three-point attempts from the opposition. Noting that Wichita State's opponents have made good on just shy of 78% of their free throw attempts this season, there's reason to believe we see some regression to the mean in that department moving forward. Likewise, Kansas State checks in knocking down better than 79% of its free throw attempts - again, some regression is almost certainly in order in that regard. I don't believe there's as much separating these two teams as is indicated by the current pointspread, and I don't love the scheduling spot for Kansas State here as it returns home for the first time in over two weeks. Wichita State's lone previous road test went its way as it won by three points as a four-point underdog at Richmond back in mid-November. Take Wichita State (10*).

Pac-12 Game of the Month. My selection is on Utah plus the points over USC at 8 pm et on Friday.

USC has every reason to be the more 'motivated' team ahead of this one. After all, it currently resides in the fourth and final spot in the College Football Playoff picture and will be looking to avenge its lone previous loss this season. Motivation only takes you so far, however, and I'm a believer that it shouldn't really play a role in handicapping as it's rarely lost on the betting marketplace. I'll grab the points with Utah here as it looks to defend its Pac-12 Championship and play as spoiler to USC's national title hopes at the same time. The Utes should be nice and warmed up for this contest after shredding through Colorado by a 63-21 score last Saturday. Meanwhile, the Trojans are coming off a win (and cover) in their annual showdown with Notre Dame - their third consecutive ATS victory. We'll back the better defense while also fading the Heisman Trophy candidate in USC QB Caleb Williams. Here, we'll note that USC is just 37-58 ATS in its last 95 games played away from home off consecutive victories and a woeful 7-18 ATS in its last 25 December games. Take Utah (10*).

Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Montreal +1.5 goals over Calgary at 9:05 pm et on Thursday.

While the Flames check in off a 6-2 blowout win over the Panthers and the Canadiens are off a 4-0 drubbing at the hands of the Sharks, I believe Montreal is set up well to give Calgary all it can handle on Thursday night. The Habs have certainly been playing better hockey lately, winning six of their last 10 games heading in. They'll have a little extra emotion for this one as teammate Sean Monahan makes his return to Calgary. Sure, the Flames skated to a blowout win over a good Panthers team two nights ago, but they've still dropped three of their last four overall and have 'only' won seven of 12 home games this season, outscoring the opposition by just 0.4 goals on average. The Habs are a respectable 5-5 on the road, outscored by an average margin of just 0.2 goals in those contests. Here, we'll note that Calgary is just 5-8 when playing at home after scoring five or more goals in their last game over the last two seasons, outscored by 0.1 goals on average in that spot. We'll confidently grab the insurance goal with the visitors at a near pk'em price here. Take Montreal +1.5 goals (10*).

Group Stage Game of the Year. My selection is on Germany -2.5 goals over Costa Rica at 2 pm et on Thursday.

We actually won with Costa Rica +1 goal against Japan in its most recent match so there is some level of respect for the CONCACAF side but I simply feel it's a 'wrong place, wrong time' situation against a vastly superior German squad on Thursday and will confidently lay the 2.5 goals with Die Mannschaft here. Despite the 1-0 victory last time out, I still have Costa Rica rating out poorly through two matches in this tournament to date. Keeper Keylor Navas might be the weakest link of all, which obviously spells trouble as he tries to keep a loaded German offense that's just bubbling under the surface and poised for a breakout performance here. Let's not lose sight of the fact that this is a Costa Rican side that is just one game removed from a 7-0 drubbing at the hands of Spain. Unlike yesterday's match between Mexico and Saudi Arabia, where the Mexicans needed to win by margin and couldn't quite close the deal, the Germans will undoubtedly be poised under the pressure and I look for them to do a much better job of capitalizing on their opportunities here. Costa Rica doesn't have that same level of talent or creativity up front as the Saudis possessed, even if it did take the latter until the final stages to finally secure a goal yesterday. German keeper Manuel Neuer hasn't been at his best through two matches in this tournament but this is a big spot for him to rise to the occasion and quite honestly, I don't expect him to be challenged much at all here. Take Germany -2.5 goals (10*).

Eastern Conference Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on Washington plus the points over Brooklyn at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday.

I really like the way this one sets up for the Wizards as they come off an impressive 142-127 win over the T'Wolves on Monday that snapped a three-game losing streak. All three of those losses came on their most recent road trip so it won't be difficult to sharpen their focus for this brief two-game trip. Note that Washington has undoubtedly had this rematch circled since getting throttled 128-86 at home against the Nets back in October. Prior to that, the Wizards had won consecutive meetings in this series, including a 117-103 victory here in Brooklyn last February. The Nets won but failed to cover against the Magic on Monday (we won with Orlando in that game). They've been shooting the lights out for weeks but I still think they're working with a slim margin for error as they've gotten off 83 or fewer field goal attempts in nine of their last 10 games overall. Case in point, the Nets shot better than 54% from the field on Monday but still scored 'only' 109 points in an ATS loss. Washington comes in hot offensively as well, making good on 40+ field goals in seven straight games while hoisting up 91+ field goal attempts in four of its last six contests. The Wizards last two opponents have shot exceptionally well but they've held those two teams to 80 and 84 FG attempts, limiting each of their last three foes to less than 90 attempts after five of their previous six opponents had eclipsed that number. Finally, we'll note that Brooklyn checks in a miserable 2-13 ATS the last 15 times it has played at home after winning five or six of its last seven games, outscored by an average margin of 1.1 points in that situation. Take Washington (10*).

Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Portland minus the points over Los Angeles at 10 pm et on Tuesday.

The Blazers play on without Damian Lillard but the Clippers are in even worse shape, missing Paul George, Kawhi Leonard and John Wall (he'll rest with this being the first of a back-to-back set). Los Angeles did prevail by a 114-100 score over Indiana at home on Sunday, thanks to knocking down 42 field goals - the first time in three games it broke the 40-FG mark. Of course, the Clips needed 94 FG attempts to get there - well north of their season average (they had hoisted up 86 or fewer field goal attempts in eight of their previous nine contests). While the Blazers do look vulnerable defensively right now (40+ field goals allowed in eight straight games), I'm not convinced the Clips are well-positioned to take advantage. Portland suffered a 111-97 loss in Brooklyn on Sunday, managing just one victory on its four-game road trip. I do think there's reason for optimism as it returns home, noting that it plays at a faster, more fluid pace here, making good on 40-of-85 FG attempts per game. Keep in mind, the last two times Portland has gotten off 80+ FG attempts it has knocked down 44 and 42 of them and Los Angeles has allowed two of its last three foes to get off 94+ FG attempts, yielding 40+ makes in three of its last four contests. While the Clippers are 5-4 on the road this season, they've actually been outscored by an average margin of 0.2 points. Meanwhile, the Blazers are an even 4-4 at home but have outscored opponents by 1.8 points on average here at the Moda Center. Take Portland (10*).

NFC Game of the Week. My selection is on Green Bay plus the points over Philadelphia at 8:20 pm et on Sunday.

I don't know how you can be all that high on the Eagles right now as they enter Sunday's contest off three consecutive ATS losses after narrowly escaping with a 17-16 win in Indianapolis last Sunday. The time to fade the Packers was last Thursday - fresh off a huge come-from-behind upset win over the Cowboys - which we did with the Titans in that game. Now everyone has once again written off Aaron Rodgers and company in a spot where I believe they can give the Eagles all they can handle. Note that Green Bay laid waste to Philadelphia by a 30-16 score the last time they met less than two years ago. In that contest, Eagles QB Jalen Hurts completed 5-of-12 passes for 109 yards, one touchdown and one interception while running five times for 29 yards. Interestingly, TE Dallas Goedert led the Eagles in catches and receiving yards in that game. He's now sidelined, leaving the tight end position to a duo that includes Jack Stoll and Grant Calcaterra. Obviously Hurts is a much better quarterback now than he was two years ago. With that being said, I don't believe there's any sort of intimidation factor at play, certainly not after the Commanders and Colts bottled up this Eagles offense over the last two weeks. The Packers are an interesting study in many regards, still boasting plenty of talent on both sides of the football, and perhaps a chip on their shoulder in the 'spoiler' role down the stretch. Take Green Bay (10*).

Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Kansas City at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

Yeah, the Rams are going nowhere this season. Everyone knows that. They're also missing most of their key contributors on offense - a unit that is almost unrecognizable at this point. The Chiefs know that as well and off a hard-fought, come-from-behind, last minute victory over the Chargers last week, I can't help but feel they're in for a letdown here. Kansas City doesn't run away and hide on the opposition this season. You could say only two of their games have been true blowouts - a 44-21 win in Arizona way back in Week 1 and a 44-23 rout of the 49ers on October 23rd. Here, they'll be facing a Rams team that has allowed more than 27 points just once all season, and they'll do so with their own injury issues. Already thin at the wide receiver position, they're still without Mecole Hardman and now Kadarius Toney is banged-up as well. Note that Kansas City has allowed 17 or more points in all 10 games so far this season so there's little reason to expect it to completely shut down the Rams offense here. I do like Los Angeles' chances of churning out some long, clock-eating drives in an effort to effectively shorten this game on Sunday and that certainly works in our favor catching north of two touchdowns. Take Los Angeles (10*).

My selection is on San Diego State plus the points over Air Force at 9 pm et on Saturday.

San Diego State has risen from the ashes following a poor 2-3 start to the campaign, winning five of its last six contests to firmly plant itself in the Bowl picture. Both Air Force and San Diego State are in uncharted territory here, riding respective three-game winning streaks. There's no question it's the Aztecs that are playing better football, however, noting that Air Force has gone just 1-3 ATS over its last four contests and 2-5 ATS over its last seven overall. Meanwhile, San Diego State checks in 4-1 ATS over its last five games. You know the saying; good teams win, great teams cover. While I'm not sure we should be crowning this San Diego squad as 'great', I do think it is good enough to hand Air Force a 10th consecutive loss in this series going all the way back to 2010. Take San Diego State (10*).

Western Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on San Antonio plus the points over Los Angeles at 8:10 pm et on Friday.

We missed with the Spurs two nights ago as they fell in a big hole early in the game against the Pelicans and never recovered in a 19-point loss. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with San Antonio here, however, as it stays home to host the Lakers in a quick revenge spot after getting blown out 123-92 in Los Angeles on Sunday. While Los Angeles does check in 2-1-1 ATS over its last four contests, it isn't necessarily trending in the right direction at either end of the floor. Note that the Lakers have gotten off 85 or fewer field goal attempts in three straight games while allowing their last three opponents to hoist up 92, 105 and 102 field goal attempts. Meanwhile, the Spurs have actually held their last five opponents to 79, 83, 81, 85 and 82 FG attempts but each and every one of those teams have shot the lights out. Of course, that has a lot to do with the inept nature of the Spurs defense. Note, however, that the Lakers might not be fit to take full advantage as they've shot 45.5% or worse in five of six road games this season. Here, we'll note that San Antonio is a long-term 126-95 ATS when seeking revenge for a double-digit road loss against an opponent, as is the case here. Take San Antonio (10*).

Pac-12 Game of the Week. My selection is on UCLA minus the points over California at 4:30 pm et on Friday.

While some feel UCLA could be in for a letdown here off last week's tough 48-45 loss to USC, I don't expect anything of the sort. After all, the Bruins check in off consecutive losses and this serves as a 'get right' matchup against Cal. The Bears are coming off a 27-20 win over Stanford last week. Color me unimpresssed as they failed to reach the end zone until nearly four minutes into the third quarter in that victory. We successfully faded Cal two weeks back as it fell by a 38-10 score at Oregon State - a game in which it's offense was held out of the end zone for the entire 60 minutes (the Bears only touchdown came on a fumble return). While UCLA has given up a ton of points this season, a lot of that has been game-script related. The Bruins actually match up well here, noting that they've held the opposition to just 3.9 yards per rush this season and that's an area where Cal needs to made headway as when it gets pass-happy, it also tends to turn the football over. QB Jack Plummer has thrown just five touchdowns to go along with six interceptions over the last four games and is likely to be under duress most of the game on Friday. Take UCLA (10*).

World Cup Game of the Week. My selection is on Iran +0.5 goals over Wales at 5 am et on Friday.

Entering this tournament, I felt that Wales would be hard-pressed to come away with a victory in a sneaky-tough group that includes USA, England and Iran. It managed to earn a draw against the Americans (we won with the draw in that match) thanks to a late converted penalty by Gareth Bale but I expect it to be given all it can handle against Iran again on Friday. The Iranians fell in a blowout against England in their World Cup opener. They were never competitive in that affair but I'm confident we'll see them bounce right back in a far more favorable matchup here. Despite the setback, we did see flashes of brilliance from the Iran attack. Here, I'm confident it will have more freedom to operate as it's unlikely to be under constant siege at the hands of a far more manageable Wales offense. Noting that Wales has conceded the first goal and also gone winless across its last six matches in all competitions, I'm comfortable grabbing the half-goal with Iran here. Take Iran +0.5 goals (10*).

Central Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Dallas -1.5 goals over Chicago at 8:35 pm et on Wednesday.

Things look like they're only going to get worse before they get better when it comes to the Blackhawks and I think they're in for another beatdown at the hands of the Stars in Dallas on Wednesday. Dallas has been one of the league's most impressive teams this season, checking in sporting an 11-5-3 record. However, it enters Wednesday's contest off a shootout loss to the defending Stanley Cup champion Avalanche two nights ago. I'm confident we'll see the Stars bounce back here as they host a reeling Blackhawks squad that has lost four straight games, all by two goals or more. A punchless offense and a leaky defense is always a bad combination and that's precisely what Chicago has right now, with no turnaround in sight. Take Dallas -1.5 goals (10*).

Division Game of the Week. My selection is on San Antonio plus the points over New Orleans at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday.

The Spurs are limping home off an 0-5 road trip but I'm confident they can bounce back and give the Pelicans all they can handle on Wednesday night. It's not difficult to see that San Antonio's problems mostly lie at the defensive end of the floor. All five of the Spurs opponents on their most recent road trip shot better than 51% from the field. All is not lost, however, and I do think we see them turn it around, relatively-speaking, sooner rather than later. Note that San Antonio has actually held four straight opponents to 85 or fewer field goal attempts. On the flip side, the Spurs have managed to knock down 41 or more field goals in three of their last four games. Those two factors would have you thinking they would have at least been able to fare better than their 1-3 ATS mark over that stretch. I expect things to start to level out for them from an ATS perspective as they return home. Note that the Pelicans have been vulnerable defensively as well, allowing six of their last nine opponents to make good on 40 or more field goals. They quite simply shot the lights out in a rout of the Warriors (who were resting their stars in a back-to-back spot) two nights ago. Nothing came easy for them against the Spurs last season as San Antonio went 3-2 SU and ATS in five meetings, getting off 91, 93, 89, 92 and 91 FG attempts along the way. Take San Antonio (10*).

NFC Game of the Month. My selection is on Detroit plus the points over New York at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Lions suddenly have a good thing going after delivering a home win over the Packers and a come-from-behind road victory over the Bears in consecutive weeks. Now they head to the Meadowlands to face a Giants team that I still consider a 'paper tiger' even as they sit at an impressive 7-2 nine games into the campaign. Last week was a good spot to back the Giants. They ultimately covered by the narrowest of margins but really had no business winning that game as their offense did virtually nothing while the underdog Texans marched into the red zone time and time again but simply couldn't finish drives with touchdowns. Here, I'm not sure New York will be so fortunate. The G-Men have been gashed for 5.4 yards per rush this season with no easy fix in sight. There's certainly a path for the Lions to effectively shorten this game with an offense that's more than capable of staying on the field for extended stretches. Defensively, the Lions have their warts but the Giants offensive ceiling is always capped thanks to its one-dimensional nature. RB Saquon Barkley will get his but at some point in this game, I expect QB Daniel Jones to be called upon to be a difference-maker. I'm not convinced he comes through, noting that New York has totalled fewer than 20 pass completions in four straight games and has topped out at a pitiful 213 passing yards in a game this season. Take Detroit (10*).

SEC Game of the Month. My selection is on Kentucky plus the points over Georgia at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

While things have gone a little sideways for Kentucky following a perfect 4-0 start to the campaign, I'm still a believer in this Wildcats squad and feel they can give undefeated Georgia a run on Saturday afternoon in Lexington. While the Bulldogs remain undefeated on the season at 10-0 and come off consecutive ATS victories as well, it's not as if it's been a completely smooth ride. Georgia has actually turned the football over seven times while forcing only two turnovers over its last three games. Remember, there was a scare on the road against an average Missouri team (the Wildcats beat the Tigers on the road two weeks ago) - a game Georgia won by only four points. The Wildcats suffered an inevitable letdown at home against Vanderbilt last week after it gained Bowl eligibility with a sixth victory the game previous. I'm confident it can pick itself back up here as the Bulldogs are obviously an easy opponent to get up for. Note that Kentucky has yet to allow more than 24 points in a game this season and it can run the football (although not as consistently as you'd like to see given its backfield talent). That's to say there's a path for the Wildcats to effectively shorten this game and keep it competitive for four quarters. Note that you would have to go back four games here in Lexington - all the way to 2014 - to find the last time Georgia defeated Kentucky by more than 17 points on this field. The Wildcats defense has matched up fairly well against the Bulldogs in recent years, allowing 'only' 30, 14 and 21 points in the last three meetings in this series. Take Kentucky (10*).

ACC Game of the Year. My selection is on Miami plus the points over Clemson at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

I really like the way this one sets up for the underdog Hurricanes as they look to pick up that all-important sixth win of the season. Of course, it will be an uphill battle trying to win outright as a near-three touchdown underdog but we're not concerned about the outright victory here, only that the Canes can stay competitive for four quarters and I'm confident that they can. Everything mighty Clemson was working toward was essentially trashed in a blowout loss against Notre Dame in South Bend two weeks ago. Credit the Tigers for bouncing back with a 31-16 home win over Louisville last week but I can't help but feel an empty feeling still remains for these Clemson players. Miami picked up a critical road win at Virginia three games back before suffering an inevitable letdown back at home against Florida State. Yes, the Canes got crushed by the Seminoles but a loss is a loss and they moved on just fine, notching a 35-14 win at Georgia Tech last Saturday. While the Canes no longer have the services of QB Tyler Van Dyke as he's been lost to a shoulder injury, I actually think his replacement Jacurri Brown is a good fit in this offense. He made the big plays when needed and showed that he could do some things with his legs as well, gaining 87 rushing yards on 19 attempts. Quietly, Canes standout WR Xavier Restrepo returned from injury a few games back and has been slowly worked back into the offense. He's capable of making a splash this week in my opinion. With that said, I believe the path to Miami success here against the Tigers involves leaning on its terrific ground attack, not to mention is still-underrated defense. It's not as if Clemson has been blowing the doors off of its opponents this season. The Tigers have topped out at 34 points over their last six games. We've also seen teams move the football on this Clemson defense, stunningly on the ground as the Tigers have been ripped for 206, 124, 263 and 150 rushing yards over their last four contests. The last time these two teams met was in 2020 when Clemson rolled to a 42-17 home victory. The pointspread would seem to indicate Miami hasn't closed the gap at all - in fact, quite the opposite - since that meeting but I believe it has and will show it on the field on Saturday. Take Miami (10*).

Mountain West Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on New Mexico plus the points over San Diego State at 9:45 pm et on Friday.

I really like the way this one sets up for underdog New Mexico as it looks to play spoiler against San Diego State on Friday. The Aztecs have saved their season with wins over UNLV and San Jose State over the last two weeks, giving them Bowl eligibility. I can't help but feel they're in for a letdown against a seemingly inferior squad here. New Mexico is a woeful 2-8 on the season and wasn't competitive in last Saturday's 31-3 loss to Air Force. The Lobos actually did well defensively to hold the Falcons to just 14 first half points but coming back on a team that can hog the time of possession like Air Force is extremely tough. San Diego State exploded for a 43-27 come-from-behind win over San Jose State last week. It seemed as if the Spartans thought it was going to be a cakewalk after two early touchdowns but the Aztecs took the ensuing kickoff (following the second TD) to the house to turn the tide. QB Jalen Mayden has been San Diego State's offense since taking over but this will be the Aztecs first road test since falling by a 32-28 score at Fresno State on October 29th. In a game that features an exceptionally low posted total, I believe grabbing the generous helping of points with the home underdog will be worth our while. Take New Mexico (10*).

NFC East Game of the Month. My selection is on Washington plus the points over Philadelphia at 8:15 pm et on Monday.

One thing we know when it comes to the Commanders (or the Football Team as I still prefer to call them) is they love to play for their quarterback Taylor Heinecke. The same goes for head coach Ron Rivera - the very definition of a 'player's coach'. While it's been another trying season in Washington, winning only four of nine games to date, this team continues to play competitive football, going 2-0-1 ATS since Heinecke took over for an ineffective Carson Wentz. The first matchup between these two teams was no contest as the Eagles rolled to a 24-8 victory in Washington. I did like the way the Commanders defense played in that contest, however, and really all season long, only allowing more than 25 points on one occasion. You would have to go back six games to find the last time they gave up more than 21 points. Needless to say that's worth noting given the lofty pointspread here. Philadelphia is in danger of coming out a little sleepy here in my opinion, still undefeated on the season and having not played since a week ago Thursday, when it was never really challenged in a 29-17 win in Houston. Note that the Eagles took last year's meeting between these two teams here in Philadelphia by 'only' 10 points. I say 'only' because Washington couldn't have played much worse in that game, gaining only 63 rushing yards on 21 attempts while completing 20-of-31 passes for 174 yards. The Eagles racked up 238 rushing yards and 281 passing yards in that contest. Again, they won by only 10 points. I'm confident the revenge-minded Commanders can close the gap in many regards on Monday and ultimately give the Eagles a bit of a scare at the very least. Only twice in the last three seasons have we seen the Eagles come off five or six ATS wins in their last seven games and on both occasions they failed to cover the spread in their next game. That's the situation here and I look for the Commanders to stay inside the lofty pointspread. Take Washington (10*).

SNF Game of the Month. My selection is on San Francisco minus the points over Los Angeles at 8:20 pm et on Sunday.

While the Chargers inexplicably enter this game with the superior overall record to that of the 49ers, I don't believe they're the better team, at least not given all of the injury blows they've been dealt. The Niners have had their share of key injuries as well but their depth has shone through and they're off their bye week on Sunday, set up in a smash spot offensively. I say this is a smash spot because the Chargers have been horrid against the run, allowing north of 6.0 yards per rush. Needless to say, the Niners can run the football as well as any team in the league, especially with RB Christian McCaffrey even more acclimated with the offense off the bye. I'm also convinced the Niners can get creative with their passing attack in this matchup as well. We've seen the Chargers frustratingly stray away at times from their best all-around offensive player, RB Austin Ekeler, at least in terms of their ground attack. Playing from behind doesn't suit this team particularly well missing its top two receiving threats in Mike Williams and Keenan Allen. Even against an injury-plagued Falcons defense last Sunday, the Chargers were only able to muster 20 points on 245 passing yards (those came on 43 pass attempts). Take San Francisco (10*).

AFC Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Cleveland plus the points over Miami at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Browns seem like they're always good for one stunner of an upset road win each season and I think this could be it on Sunday in Miami. We successfully faded the Dolphins last Sunday as they won but didn't cover against the Bears in Chicago. Here, I won't hesitate to go back to the well again as I feel the Browns match up well in a number of areas. There's still time for a bit of a quarterback controversy in Cleveland in advance of Deshaun Watson's impending return to the field in Week 13. I haven't always been high on QB Jacoby Brissett but he did win me over when he last took the field with the Browns in their impressive Monday night win over division-rival Cincinnati two weeks ago. The bye week helped Cleveland get healthier with RG Wyatt Teller among those returning for this week's game - giving a boost to an already terrific Browns ground attack. On the defensive side of the football, Cleveland is expected to have CB Denzel Ward back. While the Browns don't have anyone capable of neutralizing Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill, even if he does go off (again) there's no guarantee Miami can score enough, or make enough stops on defense to secure the cover. The Miami defense continues to play on without three key pass stoppers in corners Byron Jones and Nik Needham and safety Brandon Jones. Xavien Howard has been able to stay in the lineup but he's dealt with injuries to both groins all season long. Here, we'll note that Miami is a woeful 6-21 ATS in its last 27 home games coming off a win by three points or less, outscored by 4.4 points on average in that situation. Take Cleveland (10*).

Pac-12 Game of the Month. My selection is on Oregon State minus the points over California at 9 pm et on Saturday.

I really like the way this spot sets up for Oregon State as it returns to Corvallis with an extra day of preparation time following last Friday's tough 24-21 loss at Washington. We won with the 'under' in that narrow defeat at the hands of the Huskies in Seattle but won't hesitate to switch gears and back the Beavers here. California checks in off a spirited 41-35 loss at rival USC. The Bears were obviously up for that showdown, turning in one of their best performances of the season, albeit in a losing effort. I question whether Cal gets back up to the same level for this one, noting that it enters on the heels of five straight losses, with its season effectively circling the drain with slim hopes of gaining Bowl eligibility (it needs to win its final three games). Note that Cal is just 4-7 ATS in its last 11 games following an ATS victory while Oregon State has reeled off 10 consecutive ATS victories here at home. Take Oregon State (10*).

Big Ten Game of the Year. My selection is on Purdue plus the points over Illinois at 12 noon et on Saturday.

We missed with the 'over' in Purdue's ugly home loss against Iowa last Saturday as the Boilermakers couldn't get anything going offensively in an eventual 24-3 loss. Plenty of bettors got burned with Purdue as a home favorite in that spot and will want no part of the Boilers as they hit the road to face Illinois here. That's precisely what makes Purdue so attractive as we catch a generous helping of points in a stadium where the Boilers haven't lost since way back in 2010. Illinois is in bounce-back mode as well following a stunning home loss against Michigan State last week. While there have been some dominant defensive performances along the way, I think there have also been some 'smoke and mirrors' involved in the Illini's impressive 7-2 start to the campaign. For Purdue, it's getting down to crunch time as it looks again to gain Bowl eligibility with that elusive sixth win following back-to-back losses against Wisconsin and Iowa, as mentioned. Note that Purdue checks in 21-8 ATS in its last 29 road games after losing three of its last four contests ATS, as is the case here. Meanwhile, Illinois is a woeful 1-10 ATS in its last 11 home games after winning five or six of its last seven games ATS, which is also the situation here. Take Purdue (10*).

Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Oklahoma State minus the points over Southern Illinois at 8 pm et on Thursday.

Off a 94-63 dismantling of Arkansas-Little Rock, Southern Illinois is getting some support at the current number against Oklahoma State on Thursday. I'm not convinced that support is warranted, however. The Salukis quite simply shot the lights out in their season-opener, knocking down 32-of-55 field goal attempts. My concern is they gave Little Rock 18 extra possessions thanks to turnovers, affording them a whopping 64 field goal attempts. Little Rock just couldn't take advantage. Oklahoma State returns four starters from last year's team and while it was also careless with the basketball in its opener, turning it over 17 times, it also forced 19 turnovers. That was the Cowboys M.O. last season and I believe it will be true again in 2022-23. In stark contrast to Southern Illinois, Oklahoma State made good on just 26-of-60 FG attempts in its opener against Texas-Arlington, never sniffing out an ATS cover as a -20.5-point favorite. On a positive note, it limited Arlington to only 59 FG attempts (making good on only 21 of them). I look for the Cowboys to find their shooting legs here and ultimately pull away for a convincing victory. Take Oklahoma State (10*).

AAC Game of the Year. My selection is on Memphis minus the points over Tulsa at 7:30 pm et on Thursday.

There was reason to be optimistic about Memphis' Bowl chances entering the 2022 campaign. The Tigers opened with a tough matchup on the road against Mississippi State but from there, reeled off four straight wins and certainly appeared to be in the driver's seat in the AAC. Since then, however, the Tigers haven't gotten any breaks on their way to four consecutive losses. I'm not ready to write off Memphis just yet. Of those four losses, only two came by more than two points and none by more than 10 points with the Tigers putting up 28+ points themselves in all four contests. They face an uphill battle needing two wins in their final three games to gain Bowl eligibility but there's certainly a path to get there. It has to start with a win over Tulsa on Thursday. This has been a fairly disastrous season for the Golden Hurricane, due in part to an injury to QB Davis Brin. Even if Brin is good to go for this game, there's no guarantee Tulsa will be able to put enough points on the board to stay in contention for four quarters. Last week's two-touchdown defeat at home against Tulane illustrated how the season has gone for Tulsa as it failed to reach the end zone until the final minute of the first half - after the Green Wave had already jumped ahead 17-3. It never found the end zone again after that late first half score. Keep in mind, this is a Golden Hurricane squad that at one point gave up four touchdown drives in a 14-minute stretch against Navy and it's methodical triple-option attack earlier this season. They'll certainly have their hands full with Memphis' offense which is led by a baller in QB Seth Henigan. Tulsa has a good one in WR Keylon Stokes but I expect Memphis to give him plenty of attention in this one. Note that the Golden Hurricane will be trying to win consecutive meetings in this series for the first time since reeling off four straight wins over Memphis from 2005 to 2010. The two teams have met seven times since then with Memphis going 2-0 SU and ATS off a loss in this series over that stretch, with those two victories coming by scores of 40-20 and 41-14. Take Memphis (10*).

Southwest Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Memphis minus the points over San Antonio at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday.

The Spurs offense has cooled considerably following a hot start to the campaign while at the same time their defensive play has sagged, leading to a 1-3 ATS ledger over their last four games. While they did manage to eke out an ATS cover against Denver on Monday, I look for a different story to unfold as the Grizzlies roll into town on Wednesday. Memphis has done a nice job of pushing the pace offensively this season, hoisting up 91+ field goal attempts in each of its last three games and eight of its 11 contests overall. That spells trouble for a Spurs squad that has yielded 40+ made field goals in seven straight games, including a whopping 47+ in five of those contests. Meanwhile, San Antonio has gotten off 88 or fewer field goal attempts in five of its last six games. Last time out the Spurs attempted just 82 field goals but shot the lights out, ultimately earning the cover in a six-point defeat at the hands of the Nuggets. Here, I'm not convinced the Grizzlies will be as forgiving, noting that they've held three of their last four opponents to 38 or fewer made field goals and seven of their last eight to 89 or less FG atttempts. Take Memphis (10*).

NBA Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Oklahoma City plus the points over Milwaukee at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday.

We missed with the Thunder in this same matchup on Saturday as Oklahoma City simply couldn't knock down its shots and ultimately fell by double-digits in Milwaukee. Having now dropped four straight meetings with the Bucks, the Thunder will obviously be up for this return match in Oklahoma City on Wednesday and I look for them to challenge for the outright win. While the Thunder have now dropped three consecutive games both SU and ATS, I'm still a believer in what they're doing and feel they have the perfect formula to cash tickets as sizable underdogs, as is the case tonight. Note that OKC has afforded itself plenty of scoring opportunities on a game-by-game basis, getting off 93+ field goal attempts in eight of 10 games to date (aided by overtime on one occasion). It has also made good on 41+ field goals in eight contests. On the flip side, the Thunder check in having limited seven of their last nine opponents to 90 or fewer field goal attempts. Only one of their last five opponents has knocked down 40+ field goals. While most will look to back the Bucks in this bounce-back spot off an ugly loss to the Hawks in Atlanta two nights ago, I don't envision them winning by margin, noting that they've yielded 92+ field goal attempts to five of their last seven opponents. Meanwhile, they've yet to find their rhythm offensively, knocking down 38, 43, 41, 38 and 36 field goals over their last five games. Take Oklahoma City (10*).

MAC Game of the Year. My selection is on Miami-Ohio plus the points over Ohio at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday.

I like the way this spot sets up for the Redhawks as they come off their bye week knowing they need two victories in their final three games to earn Bowl eligibility. Anything other than a Bowl appearance would be a disappointment after they not only reached one but defeated North Texas in that contest last December. Miami-Ohio's offense hasn't put up the same numbers it did a year ago although it's worth noting that unit didn't really get rolling until November. Ohio has reeled off four straight victories, making it six on the season so it has already gained Bowl eligibility. I didn't come away overly impressed despite the lopsided nature of its 45-24 win over Buffalo last week. The Bulls offered very little defensive resistance in that game but I expect Miami-Ohio to provide a much more difficult challenge in that regard here. I mentioned that the Redhawks offense didn't really get rolling until November last season. That's been par for the course as Miami-Ohio checks in 77-51 ATS in its last 128 games played in the second half of the season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 3.5 points along the way. Here, the Redhawks will be playing with revenge after dropping a tough 35-33 decision on the road against Ohio last year. They were actually shut out in the entire first half in that game and couldn't find any semblance of a ground game, but still hung in there and lost by 'only' two points. Note that the underdog has cashed in each of the last three meetings in this series (last year Ohio was a +7 home underdog). Here, we'll also note that the Bobcats are just 3-6 ATS in their last nine games as a favorite while Miami-Ohio checks in a profitable 5-3 ATS in its last eight games after losing two of its last three contests ATS, as is the case here. Take Miami-Ohio (10*).

NFC Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Seattle plus the points over Arizona at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.

Not to oversimplify things but I don't think the Cardinals are a very good football team. Meanwhile, Seattle remains as underrated a team as you'll find in the NFL, even off last week's impressive win over the Giants. The Seahawks have already handled the Cardinals once and while Arizona now has WR DeAndre Hopkins at its disposal, I'm not convinced his presence is enough to turn the tide in this rematch. Rookie RB Kenneth Walker has been a massive get for the Seahawks with the injury to Rashaad Penny proving to be a blessing in disguise. That's not to mention the departure of Russell Wilson which has given Geno Smith a run at redemption and he's taken full advantage. Plus we have a Seattle defense that is seemingly getting stronger with each passing week. Take Seattle (10*).

Underdog Game of the Week. My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Miami at 1 pm et on Sunday.

I can't help but feel bettors are overreacting to the Bears dealing Robert Quinn and Roquan Smith away prior to the trade deadline. I think Chicago's ugly 12-7 home loss to Washington three games back was something of a watershed moment for the team. Since then, they've put up 62 points in splitting a pair of games against New England and Dallas. They made a move to acquire WR Chase Claypool at the trade deadline and while he's unlikely to make an immediate impact here, I do think the Bears offense can feast on a still-undermanned Dolphins secondary. Too many points for the home side here. Take Chicago (10*).

Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Oklahoma City plus the points over Milwaukee at 8:10 pm et on Saturday.

We missed with the Thunder on Thursday as they couldn't contain the Nuggets in the fourth quarter in an eventual 12-point loss. Here, I won't hesitate to go back to the well with them, however, as they hit the road to face the Bucks in Milwaukee. Note that Oklahoma City continues to do a good job of limiting its opponents scoring opportunities, yielding 88 or fewer field goal attempts in regulation time in seven straight games. The Nuggets quite simply shot the lights out against them on Thursday, something I don't expect the banged-up Bucks to do in a back-to-back spot on Saturday. Milwaukee has been defending well, but still allows far too many opportunities for its liking, with four of its last five opponents getting off 92+ field goal attempts. The Thunder figure to be more than capable of taking advantage of those opportunities as they've made good on 41+ field goals in seven straight games and exactly 45 in each of their last two contests. While the Bucks won in a rout the last time these two teams met, a weaker Thunder squad took them to task in last year's meeting here in Milwaukee, losing by only seven points as a double-digit underdog. Take Oklahoma City (10*).

Mountain West Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on UNLV plus the points over San Diego State at 7 pm et on Saturday.

San Diego State has been fairly high on my fade list this season and I see this as another fine opportunity to do so as the Aztecs face UNLV on Saturday. The Runnin' Rebels are licking their wounds on the heels of three straight losses following a 4-1 start to the campaign. Injuries have had something to do with their slide but the guys that are healthy need to start showing up and I'm confident they will off the bye week. If ever there was a perfect example of how far the Aztecs have fallen it wast last week's fall-from-ahead loss against Fresno State. San Diego State teams of the past would have had no trouble putting that game away with a 28-10 late in the third quarter. But this year's Aztecs squad can't run the football and control the clock the way previous editions have been able to. It seems that the more QB Jalen Mayden is asked to do the more trouble he gets into. With that being said, Virginia Tech transfer Braxton Burmeister certainly wasn't the answer under center either. All told, this is a San Diego State team that struggles to do the little things well, including playing fundamentally-sound defense and I expect the Rebels to take advantage here, even with QB Doug Brumfield still sidelined with a concussion. Keep in mind, Cam Friel was last year's top passer for the team while Harrison Bailey is a Tennessee transfer that most thought would be the starter this year heading into the season. With an extra week of practice I do think we'll see a sharper performance from the UNLV offense here. Take UNLV (10*).

Western Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Portland at 10:10 pm et on Friday.

I would argue that no team has played as well as the Suns out of the gate this season. Of course, playing five of seven games at home has helped. They'll stay home in a revenge-minded role against the Blazers here - the team that handed them their lone loss of the season to date. Keep in mind, Portland is no longer at full strength, missing Damian Lillard and possible Anfernee Simons as well as he's questionable to play due to a foot injury. The Suns have incredibly knocked down 40+ field goals in all seven games this season. On the flip side, they've held six of seven opponents to 38 or fewer made field goals. Only one of Phoenix's opponents has managed to get off more than 87 field goal attempts and that was Golden State in a game the Suns won by 29 points. Take Phoenix (10*).

TNF Game of the Month. My selection is on Houston plus the points over Philadelphia at 8:15 pm et on Thursday.

No one is giving the Texans any sort of chance at springing the upset against the undefeated Eagles on Thursday night. While I'm not about to predict Houston will win this game outright, I do think it can keep within arm's reach for four quarters against Philadelphia. The Eagles had no trouble laying waste to the Steelers on Sunday. That was a far worse defensive team than they'll face on Thursday, however. The Texans actually have some semblance of a pass defense led by rookie corner Derek Stingley. For the Eagles to keep their undefeated record intact I think they'll need to involve their ground attack heavily, effectively shortening this game which plays into our hands with two touchdowns in our back pocket with the Texans. Houston looked lifeless against Tennessee last Sunday as they were mercilessly run all over by RB Derrick Henry. The Eagles don't possess that type of bruising, relentless back. RB Miles Sanders will get his, but again, I'm not anticipating the same sort of beatdown on the Texans defensive front. Offensively, Houston has a workhorse to lean on in the form of RB Dameon Pierce and you can run on these Eagles as they've allowed just shy of 5.0 yards per rush and just lost key run-stopper, nose tackle Jordan Davis to an ankle injury. Like the Eagles, I feel the Texans offensive gameplan will work to shorten this game with several long, clock-churning drives. Note that the Eagles are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a road favorite and 1-5 ATS in their last six contests after winning consecutive games ATS. Meanwhile, the Texans have been listed as underdogs of between 10.5 and 14 points just twice over the last three seasons, covering the number on both of those occasions. Take Houston (10*).

Champions League Game of the Month. My selection is on Celtic +2 goals over Real Madrid at 1:45 pm et on Wednesday.

Real Madrid blanked Celtic 3-0 when these two squads met in early September. While the Scottish side's hopes of advancing to the final 16 have been dashed, I do expect it to still put up a better fight as these two take part in a return match in Madrid on Wednesday. Celtic enters this contest having gone undefeated in its last five matches across all competitions. To illustrate its fine form, it has struck first in each of those five contests while carrying a lead into halftime in four of them. This will obviously be a stiff challenge for Celtic as Real Madrid searches for a victory to wrap up first place in Group F. With that being said, the Spanish side will be without Karim Benzema and might not have its usual fresh legs here in Champions League action, noting that it just wrapped up a month of October that featured nine fixtures. While Celtic have nothing to play for in this particular tournament, there is the matter of pride and after being shut out at the hands of Real Madrid on home soil two months ago, I'm confident we'll see it rise to the occasion here. It's worth noting that to find the last time Celtic lost a match by 3+ goals, you would have to go all the way back to that previous date with Madrid. Take Celtic +2 goals (10*).

Eastern Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Brooklyn at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday.

The Bulls are coming off consecutive losses but I like them to bounce back as they catch the Nets in a back-to-back spot off a rare win over the Pacers last night. Brooklyn is still just 2-5 on the season and needed to shoot the lights out to secure a win (but not a cover) against Indiana. Note that the Nets have still only managed to get off 89 or fewer field goal attempts in six of seven games this season. Last night, they hoisted up just 80 shots against the defensively-challenged Pacers. Defensively, Brooklyn has allowed 40+ made field goals in six of seven games. The only occasion where the Nets held an opponent to fewer than 40 made field goals it still lost by double-digits against Milwaukee. Chicago, on the other hand, has held three of its last four opponents to 39 or fewer made field goals. Only one of its seven opponents has managed to get off more than 86 field goal attempts and that was a game it won by 18 points against Boston. The last time these two teams met, Brooklyn won in a rout last March. Keep in mind, the Nets were playing with triple in-season revenge in that spot. Different story here. Take Chicago (10*).

Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Washington plus the points over Philadelphia at 7:10 pm et on Monday.

The 76ers have picked themselves up after dropping the opening game of their current four-game road trip, posting consecutive wins (SU and ATS) over the Raptors and Bulls. Philadelphia is still having a tough enough time just getting shots off, however, noting that it has hoisted up 84 or fewer field goal attempts in all seven games this season. It has quite simply knocked down its shots at an incredibly high rate during its current road trip but I expect it to run into some trouble against the Wizards in Washington on Monday. The Wizards have quietly been locking down their opponents, yet to allow more than 41 made field goals in a game this season. They've limited three of their last five opponents to 81 or fewer field goal attempts. Yesterday, Washington fell by a score of 112-94 in Boston as it shot a miserable 38.8% from the field. Prior to that, the Wiz had knocked down 41+ field goals in all five games this season. Note that Washington took two of three meetings between these two teams last season and has won 30 of the last 50 matchups between these two franchises in the nation's capital. Take Washington (10*).

Non-Conference Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on Detroit plus the points over Miami at 1 pm et on Sunday.

I see this as a smash spot for the Lions, particularly on offense, as they check in starved for a positive outcome following four consecutive losses including back-to-back road losses against the Patriots and Cowboys in which they scored a grand total of six points. Something has to give in this matchup as the Dolphins enter riding an 0-4 ATS skid while the Lions have dropped the cash in three consecutive games. The Fins will be out of their element playing in a domed environment, noting that they'll be looking forward to flipping the calendar page having gone a miserable 0-8 ATS in their last eight October games. There were certainly a lot of positives for Miami to take away from last Sunday night's 16-10 victory over the Steelers. However, I didn't like the way their offense stagnated and I did feel their secondary and defense as a whole looked vulnerable, missing a number of key parts and suffering yet another injury blow with strong safety Brandon Jones tearing his ACL. Keep in mind, this was already a defense that was without Xavien Howard's running mate, Byron Jones and slot corner Nik Needham. Howard could be left on an island in this one and he's been dealing with nagging groin and quad injuries all season long (he missed practice to start the week once again). While the Lions did lose WR Aman-Ra St. Brown to concussion protocols in last week's game against Dallas, all indications are that he'll be good to go for this one as he didn't actually get diagnosed with a concussion (the league's new protocols dictated that he leave the game and not return). Speaking of returning players, Detroit should have RB De'Andre Swift back for the first time in a long time after he was a somewhat surprising scratch last week. The Lions wanted to give him one more week to recover but after he was a full participant in practice to start the week, he should be back on the field for Sunday's game. That's good news as the Dolphins have had a difficult time defending pass-catching running backs like Swift (and Jamaal Williams) this season. I see this as a breakout spot for a Lions offense that is starving for such an opportunity given the way they've lagged in recent games. Remember, this was one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL through the first month of the season. Here, we'll note that Detroit has gone an exceptional 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games following consecutive losses by 14+ points, as is the case here. Take Detroit (10*).

Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Carolina plus the points over Atlanta at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Panthers were written off by most following the trade of Christian McCaffrey, not to mention the firing of head coach Matt Rhule (I would actually consider that move to be addition by subtraction). Rather than hang their heads, the Panthers came out with something to prove last Sunday, routing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. That victory came at home. Now they hit the road to face the upstart Falcons in Atlanta. I'm not convinced this matchup is quite as daunting as it may seem for the visitors. Carolina will be looking to secure a third straight win and cover here in Atlanta after outlasting the Falcons by a 19-13 score on the road last season. Atlanta is dealing with a cluster of injuries in its secondary and will sorely miss its two two corners in A.J. Terrell and Casey Hayward in this one. Panthers QB P.J. Walker was given a vote of confidence from the team this week, named the starter despite Baker Mayfield apparently being healthy enough to return (he'll be in a backup role here). The run-first nature of the Falcons plays into the hands of the team catching points, eating up valuable clock most weeks. Last Sunday, Atlanta attempted just 13 passes despite game script leading you to believe it should be bombing away, trailing by a considerable margin all afternoon long in Cincinnati. I expect the Falcons to stick to the script here, even against a Panthers defense that has been relatively stout against the run, yielding just 3.5 yards per rush on the road this season. Carolina finally got its ground game going in last week's win and I expect some carry-over here, noting that Atlanta has been ripped for 5.4 yards per rush at home this season. Look for the Panthers to churn out long, clock-eating drives in an effort to effectively shorten this game - that gives them their best chance of securing a second straight victory in my opinion. Take Carolina (10*).

Pac-12 Game of the Month. My selection is on UCLA minus the points over Stanford at 10:30 pm et on Saturday.

Credit Stanford for turning its season around with consecutive wins over Notre Dame and Arizona State. The Cardinal were circling the drain off to a 1-4 start prior to that, with their lone win having come against FCS squad Colgate. I think their run ends here, however, as they head to Westwood to face a UCLA squad that should be in a foul mood off a 45-30 loss at Oregon last week (we won with the 'over' in that game). The Stanford defense has held up well over the last two games but those were favorable matchups, unlike this one. Keep in mind, earlier this season we saw the Cardinal allow three Oregon State touchdown drives in the fourth quarter, at home no less, nearly coughing up a 24-10 lead. The week previous to that there was a stretch where they allowed three Oregon touchdowns in just over four minutes of action. There were also poor performances against USC and Washington. In that same vein, I look for the Bruins offense to go off in this matchup. UCLA had no defensive answers for Oregon in Eugene last Saturday but few teams do these days. This is about as close to the electric Ducks offense of yesteryear that we've seen in quite some time. Here, the Bruins should benefit from facing a pocket-passer of a QB in Tanner McKee. You would have to go back three games to find the last time he threw a touchdown pass and he's no threat to run, gaining positive yardage on the ground just once all season (he gained five yards on two attempts against Oregon State). Note that UCLA checks in an incredible 10-1 ATS when coming off three straight games allowing 31+ points, as is the case here. Meanwhile, despite the victory last week, Stanford is still just 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games against Pac-12 opponents. Take UCLA (10*).

Western Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Houston plus the points over Portland at 10:10 pm et on Friday.

The Blazers had their perfect 4-0 start to the season stopped in a blowout loss against the Heat two nights ago. Not only did they lose that game but they lost their best player in Damian Lillard to injury as well. Regardless whether Portland has Lillard or not, I like the Rockets catching a handful of points here. Note that Portland has had a tough enough time just getting shots off this season, attempting 88, 82, 84, 83 and 78 field goals through its first five games. On the flip side, the Blazers have yielded 41+ made field goals in four consecutive games with three of their five opponents getting off 91+ FG attempts this season. That's obviously the pace the Rockets prefer to play at, noting that they've hoisted up 90+ FG attempts in four straight games. They haven't shot well over that stretch but should bounce back here. Note that Houston is a long-term 73-47 ATS when playing on the road after losing four of its last five games, as is the case here, while Portland checks in 18-36 ATS in its last 54 games following a loss. Take Houston (10*).

Sun Belt Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Louisiana minus the points over Southern Miss at 7:30 pm et on Thursday.

Louisiana is absolutely playing its best football of the season right now and I think Southern Miss is ripe for the picking off consecutive wins - matching its longest winning streak of the season. The Ragin' Cajuns were overvalued early in the season, there's no question about that. They were favored by 11.5 and 9.5 points in their first two road games against Rice and Louisiana-Monroe and lost both contests outright. They followed up those two road defeats with another narrow home loss against South Alabama. The turnaround started two weeks ago, when the Ragin' Cajuns went on the road and upset Marshall by double-digits (as a double-digit underdog). From there, Louisiana routed Arkansas State 38-18 on Saturday. An injury to QB Chandler Fields has actually settled the situation under center with Ben Wooldridge taking over full-time. Keep in mind, the Ragin' Cajuns had been going with a two-man QB rotation, to mixed results. Suddenly Wooldridge has thrown for 546 yards, seven touchdowns and no interceptions over the last two games. Over its last six quarters of action, Louisiana has had a 16-minute stretch where it put together four scoring drives against Marshall and scored four offensive touchdowns in a 13-minute stretch against Arkansas State. Meanwhile, the Ragin' Cajuns defense, which was poised to be one of the best units in the Sun Belt Conference entering the season but got off to a sluggish start, has also come around. Louisiana has completely stamped out opposing passing games over the last month, yielding just 61-of-121 passing. The Ragin' Cajuns defense, which has forced 17 turnovers this season, has to be frothing at the mouth at the thought of facing a Southern Miss offense that has coughed the football up nine times over the last three games. The Golden Eagles offense continues to struggle, even though the team has won consecutive games. They scored exactly 20 points in each of those victories. QB Zach Wilcke has struggled now that there's plenty of tape out there on him - he's thrown more than one touchdown pass only once this season while tossing seven interceptions over the last three games. Unlike Louisiana QB Wooldridge, Wilcke is fairly limited in terms of his running ability. RB Frank Gore Jr. is terrific but should the Golden Eagles fall behind as I expect here, it could be tough sledding for the dynamic back due to game script alone. Here, we'll note that Louisiana is a long-term 65-43 ATS when playing on the road from October on. Take Louisiana (10*).

Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Utah minus the points over Houston at 9:10 pm et on Wednesday.

The Rockets got the better of the Jazz by a 114-108 score in Houston two nights ago but I look for Utah to answer right back on Wednesday back in Salt Lake City. Despite dropping that contest, the Jazz continued their streak of hot shooting to open the campaign, knocking down 44 field goals - their fourth straight game hitting 42+ field goals. Having hoisted up 111 (aided by overtime), 98 and 93 field goal attempts over their last three contests, I'm confident the Jazz can overwhelm a weak Rockets defense here. Even in Monday's win, Houston still allowed Utah to get off 93 FG attempts, as mentioned. The Rockets have now yielded their first four opponents' 45, 45, 48 and 43 made field goals. On the flip side, Houston has knocked down just 36 and 38 field goals over its last two games. Even with a number of new faces in the lineup, the Jazz are clearly comfortable operating in an extremely fast-paced environment. Despite Monday's victory, I think the Rockets are still figuring things out with their youthful roster. Here, we'll note that the Rockets are just 13-24 ATS in their last 37 games as an underdog priced between +3.5 and +9.5 points, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 9.4 points in that situation. Take Utah (10*).

MNF Game of the Month. My selection is on New England minus the points over Chicago at 8:15 pm et on Monday.

The Bears have had but one truly favorable offensive matchup this season - that coming two games back in Minnesota (we won with the 'over' in that contest) and I suppose you could say they took advantage, scoring 22 points, albeit on just 271 total yards. Outside of that, the Chicago offense has been rather unimaginative and certainly unproductive and I expect that to continue on Monday as it draws a poor matchup against a still-underrated Patriots defense. New England has absolutely erased the majority of the passing games it has faced this season, limiting each of its last five opponents to 21 or fewer pass completions (only its first opponent this season - Miami - topped that mark with 23). Teams that have elected to stick with the run against the Patriots have had moderate success in terms of yardage gained, but not to much in terms of reaching the end zone. I like the Bears offense far better when they have a clear lead back but that's not the case right now with David Montgomery healthy. If anything, Montgomery's health is holding back incumbent Khalil Herbert who has looked like the more explosive RB. The Patriots are expected to have both QB Mac Jones and RB Damien Harris back on offense. While RB Rhamondre Stevenson has performed well, it certainly doesn't hurt getting Harris back as he's proven to have a real nose for the end zone over the course of his career. There are certainly Mac Jones doubters out there, especially given how well Bailey Zappe has performed in his absence, but I think he does just fine here, serving little more than a 'game manager' role noting that the Bears have been lit up by opposing ground games, allowing 4.7 yards per rush. While we usually look to fade teams coming off ATS winning streaks, the Pats don't appear to qualify as they've gone an incredible 47-29 ATS in their last 76 games following three straight ATS victories, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 8.4 points in that situation. Meanwhile, Chicago checks in 5-13 ATS in its last 18 games in an underdog role, outscored by 9.2 points on average in that spot. Take New England (10*).

Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on New York -1.5 goals over Columbus at 5:05 pm et on Sunday.

The Blue Jackets had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 6-3 loss to the Penguins on home ice last night. Meanwhile, the Rangers have been idle since Thursday, when they suffered a rare home loss by a 3-2 score against San Jose. The Blueshirts clearly got caught looking past the lowly Sharks in that game after a 3-1 start to the campaign. I don't expect them to do the Blue Jackets any such favors on Sunday, however. Columbus is going to give up its share of goals. Note that it has allowed 4, 5, 5, 3, 3 and 6 goals in six contests so far this season. While the Jackets have scored 12 goals over their last three games, I expect them to run into trouble with the Rangers rested and off a disappointing loss, not to mention playing at home. Note that New York has allowed an average of just 2.1 goals in 28 games following a home defeat over the last three seasons. Columbus checks in averaging only 2.0 goals per contest when playing on the road against division opponents over the same stretch. Take New York -1.5 goals (10*).

AFC Game of the Week. My selection is on Denver over New York at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.

NOTE: Russell Wilson has been ruled out for the Broncos. Brett Rypien will start in his place. I'll stick with the play as I'm not sure that Rypien's presence changes what Denver will be looking to do and that's churn out long, clock-eating drives on offense while leaving the rest in the hands of its capable defense.

Everyone is down on the Broncos right now while the Jets, perhaps along with the Giants, are the NFL's 'flavor of the month'. We actually won with the Jets last week in their outright blowout win in Green Bay. I loved the way that spot set up for Gang Green but I think it's a much different story this week as they stay on the road for a second straight game to face the down-trodden Broncos in Denver. With New York suddenly 4-2 on the season, just one game back of first place in the AFC East, this becomes a clear look-ahead spot as its next three games will come at home against New England and Buffalo, followed by a bye week and then a quick road rematch against the Patriots. I still feel this Jets squad has some warts. QB Zach Wilson has generally been awful since taking over the reins under center, completing just 42-of-75 passes for 572 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. Yes, rookie RB Breece Hall has been outstanding but much of his success has been game-script dependent with the Jets holding sizable leads most of the way in each of the last two games. Prior to two weeks ago against Miami, New York had topped out at 98 rushing yards in a game this season. The Broncos, while clearly struggling, do still have at least a couple of redeeming qualities. Their defense remains stout. You don't hold the Chargers offense to 73 rushing yards and 224 passing yards (on 57 pass attempts) by fluke. Patrick Surtain would get my vote as the best cornerback in the NFL. Brandon Browning has been a massive find as a pass rusher on the outside. While it could certainly use some help from the offense, this is a defense capable of winning this game all on its own (note that the Broncos manhandled the Jets by a 26-0 score here in Denver in last year's meeting). While QB Russell Wilson hasn't been good by any stretch of the imagination, the Broncos play-calling has left a lot to be desired as well. They got way too predictable as the game went on in Los Angeles on Monday. I do think there were lessons to be gleaned from that narrow defeat and we'll see Denver employ a more aggressive offensive gameplan against a beatable Jets defense here. New York is certainly 'feeling itself' off last week's statement win in Green Bay (if you watched rookie Sauce Gardner's postgame interview you know what I mean). However, with young teams sometimes the highs are a little too high and I expect it to be brought back to Earth on Sunday. Here, we'll note that the Jets are a woeful 4-15 ATS in their last 19 road games following three consecutive victories, outscored by 8.7 points on average in that spot. Meanwhile, the Broncos check in 28-12 the last 40 times they've played at home off a road loss against a division opponent, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 7.9 points in that situation. Take Denver (10*).

Northwest Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Oklahoma City plus the points over Denver at 9:10 pm et on Saturday.

While the Nuggets were busy upsetting the Warriors in San Francisco last night, the Thunder have been idle since opening the season with a narrow loss in Minnesota on Wednesday. Nothing that Oklahoma City is 13-2 ATS in its last 15 games following an ATS win but SU loss on the road, we'll confidently back it here. While the Thunder lost their opener, I did like the fact that they managed to push the pace and get off 99 field goal attempts. On the flip side, they held what looks like an explosive T'Wolves offense to only 39 made field goals on 94 attempts. Going back to the preseason, the Thunder have yet to allow an opponent knock down more than 41 field goals in five games against NBA competition (they played two preseason games against non-NBA foes). As for the Nuggets, they're off to a 1-1 start to the campaign, yielding 42 made field goals in each contest despite limiting both of their opponents to 88 or fewer FG attempts. Nothing came easy for the Nuggets in this series last season as they only managed a 2-2 split with their two wins coming by a combined 10 points. Take Oklahoma City (10*).