This is a 3* play on MIA.

So this is the first game of a back to back for Atlanta, and Trey Young is questionable with an illness. That makes me think that this should be a throw away game, and rather than rush their star back before he's 100 percent, they should concentrate of tomorrow's home game against the Cavs. The last time Atlanta played back to back games they lost  both by 20+ points. Miami has won and covered in both meetings this season, and they have won seven of the last nine, covering in five of those seven wins.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under.

I said this about the Knicks prior to their last game: "The Knicks are a different team since the trade acquiring OJ Anunoby from the Raptors. They have won six of seven, allowing opponents to average just 101 points per game during that span." They come off a 98-94 home loss to Orlando, and they now face a Houston team that they have owned in recent seasons. The Knicks have won seven straight in this series, and Houston has averaged just 100 points per game in the last six meetings.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under.

The Knicks are a different team since the trade acquiring OJ Anunoby from the Raptors. They have won six of seven, allowing opponents to average just 101 points per game during that span. The Magic rank 24th in the NBA in scoring, and they are 7th in opponent's scoring average. These two teams have a history of playing low scoring games, going under in six straight meetings and eight of the last 10. The Magic are coming in off four consecutive unders.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on LAC.

This is a huge game between the first place Minnesota Timberwolves and the 4th place Clippers. Whoever wins this game will be touted by the media as the best team in the NBA (in a snapshot of time). The Clippers come in as winners of eight of nine, and they have won 15 of their last 16 when Kawhi Leonard plays. I don't normally like backing road favorites, but I think this is such a high profile game and I truly believe that the Clippers may well be the creme of the crop in today's NBA when they have a healthy Kawhi Leonard.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on NYK.

The Grizzlies are coming off a nine point home loss to the Clippers last night, and they are just 3-14 at home this season. Playing the second game of a back to back with a thin lineup tonight, they might be looking at a double digit loss to the Knicks. New York has won five of six since acquiring OJ Anunoby, and they have been dominant defensively during that span. The Grizz have failed to cover in seven of their last eight home games.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on DEN.

The Nuggets are 15-4 at home, and they are 7-3 in the last 10 versus the Pelicans. Call this a revenge game after New Orleans won at home 115-110 in the last meeting in November. The Pelicans come in with three of their starters listed as questionable (Zion, CJ & Brandon Ingram). The Pelicans lost 134-116 in their last game at Denver, and we might be expecting another blowout here tonight.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on UTAH.

The Raptors are coming off back to back losses in LA, and this looks like a tough spot for them on the road at Utah. The trade with the Knicks provided a spark, but that won't be the last deal before the deadline. We expect Pascal Siakam to be on his way out, and he likely won't play tonight. The Jazz have won six of their last seven versus Toronto, and they are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games. The Jazz will look for a seventh straight home win.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under.

The Knicks are a different team since the trade with the Raptors. New York is 5-0 since the trade, allowing opponents to average much less than 100 points per game during that span. The Raptors are also doing well since the trade, but they have gone over in all their games. It makes sense that after trading a pair of offensive minded players for an elite defender, this would be the result. These teams have gone under in seven of the last 10 meetings, and they haven't scored 234 points in regulation in any of the last five meetings.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on IND.

How will the Pacers get on without Tyrese Haliburton? Well they should do just fine against a Wizards team that is 3-17 on the road. They came storming back to beat the Celtics at home in the second half without their leading scorer in their last game. Washington are 1-9 SU in their last 10 games on the road, while the Pacers have won seven of their last eight. I expect Indiana to rally for another double digit win here at home against a bottom feeder.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on MIN.

The T-Wolves sit in first place in the Western Conference, and they come into Dallas with an 11-7 road record. The Mavs are banged up, and Luka Doncic did not play in a win over Portland on Friday. His status is still uncertain for tonight's game, but it appears unlikely he will be 100 percent. The Wolves have won five of the last six head to head, including both meetings at Dallas during that span.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 2* play on Under.

Throw out the previous numbers for the Knicks, since the trade this team is trending in a different direction. They gave up a couple of offensive players to acquire an elite defender, and in the three games Anunoby has played the Knicks have held opponents under 100 points per game. Washington has lost six of their last seven at home, and they have failed to reach the total in five of their last seven versus the Knicks.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 2* play on PHX.

The Heat have played well despite a the absence of Jimmy Buckets and Caleb Martin, but tonight's game in Phoenix looks like a tough spot. They've been in LA since New Years, and lord knows what a bunch of millionaires in their 20s get up to in LA. This is a final game of a West Coast road trip, and they are back home to host Houston on Monday. The Suns have struggled, but Bradley Beal has scored 20+ points in three straight games. Prior to KD sitting out the last two games, the Suns had won back to back games with their BIG3 intact. KD was able to practice on Thursday, and he should have an opportunity to play here on Friday.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on LAC.

The Clippers are 12-2 in their last 14 overall, and they are 10-0 in their last 10 when Kawhi Leonard starts. Kawhi is healthy, but KD is not. Durant is expected to miss this game with a sore hamstring. The Clippers were 3-1 at Phoenix last season before Kawhi was injured, and he averaged averaged 34.5 points in the series versus Phoenix last year. The Suns are reeling, and Durant is rumored to be looking to leave.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on GSW.

The Warriors are a desperate team in need of a win, coming into this home game off three straight losses to Dallas, Miami and Denver. They had previously won five straight, and four of those wins came at home. The Magic actually won at Golden State last January, but the previous nine head to head meetings were all won by the home team. The Magic have lost nine of their last 10 at Golden State. The Warriors are 8-2 straight up in their last 10 home games.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under.

How high can an NBA total go? The Bucks and the Pacers are high flying offensive powerhouses, so it comes as no shocker that they have gone over in seven of the last eight meetings. We have yet to see a total as high as 260 though. Only four of the last seven meetings have gone over 260 combined points. These teams rank 1st and 2nd in the NBA in scoring, but both average well below 130 points per game.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on MEM.

The Grizz have a terrible home record, just 2-11 on the season. They host the Sacramento Kings who are a pedestrian 7-7 on the road. When it comes to Memphis, you have to throw out all the numbers prior to the return of Ja Morant. The Grizz are 4-1 in the five games he's played, with the only loss coming on the road at the Clippers on Friday. The Grizzlies are 8-2 straight up in their last 10 versus the Kings, and they have won four of five home games during that span.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on IND.

After winning back to back games on the road, the Pacers are back in Indy hosting the New York Knicks Saturday night. The Knicks are playing the second game of a back to back, coming off a loss to Orlando. Playing on back to back nights is always tough, but against the league leader in pace of play perhaps even tougher? The Pacers are 15-5 straight up in their last 20 home games versus the Knicks.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on DET.

Have you heard of the Casey Curse? For those who don't know, the Raptors fired coach Casey after finishing first in the East, but losing to LeBron and the Cavs in the playoffs several years ago. The Raptors went on to win a championship with Nick Nurse, and Detroit hired coach Casey. The Pistons have long been the laughing stock of the league, but the one team that they could beat was Toronto. While Casey is no longer the Pistons coach, and the Raptors have won five straight meetings versus Detroit, the Pistons are still 8-2 ATS in the last 10 head to head. Both these teams look like they are tanking, but the Pistons are desperate to snap their historic losing streak. This looks like as good a spot as any for the Pistons to get a W.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on the Warriors.

So the Heat got a home win over a shorthanded Philly team on Christmas Day, while the Warriors lost at Denver in a game that was highly controversial. The Dubs should bring it here at home after Steve Kerr railing against the officials after the loss to Denver. The Dubs have won eight in a row at home, and they are 4-1 in their last five home games against Miami. They have actually been a better team since the suspension of Draymond Green.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under.

You gotta have a big set to be betting unders in the NBA these days, but the Iceman has a pair, don't you worry about that. Houston ranks 2nd in the NBA in opponent's scoring average, allowing 108 points per game. They lost at home last night to Indiana, in a game that they let get away from them. The Suns are also coming in off an ugly loss, and I am expecting both these teams to reign it in here as they look to bounce back. The last time Phoenix played at Houston they scored just 97 points. We might see both these teams bring it on defense tonight.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on HOU.

The Rockets are 12-2 at home, and nobody in the Western Conference has more wins. They rank 2nd in the NBA in opponent's scoring average. They host a Pacers team that is allergic to defense, ranking 29th in the NBA allowing 126 points per game. The Pacers have failed to cover in six of their last seven overall, and they are 0-5 ATS in their last five versus teams from the Western Conference.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on DENVER.

The defending champs are 11-2 at home, and the Joker is still in a class of his own. While the mainstream media refuses to five Nikola Jokic the credit he is due, he continues to dominate everything in his path. The Warriors five game winning streak only puts them a game above .500, and four of those five wins came at home. Now they are on the road, and Steph Curry averages over 30 points per game at home, and just over 26 points per game on the road. The Warriors have lost four straight in this series, and they are 1-5 SU and 1-5 ATS in the last six meetings.

GL,

Jesse Schule

4*

This is a 4* play on MEM.

The Grizzlies are a different team with Ja Morant in the lineup, and since he's back they have won back to back games. Morant scored 34 in his return to the lineup in a win at New Orleans, and then followed up with 20 points in a home win over the Pacers. The Hawks have a far better record on the road than they do at home, and they are playing the second game of a back to back after a loss at Miami last night. The Grizz have won three of their last four at Atlanta.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on HOU.

The Rockets are coming off a brutal home loss to the Hawks, but this looks like a nice bounce back spot against an undermanned Dallas team. The Mavs entire starting lineup is expected to be out due to injuries, and that includes leading scorer Luka Doncic. The Rockets are 13-5-2 ATS in their last 20 games overall, and they rank 1st in the NBA in opponent's scoring average.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on MEM.

Not going to deep into this one. Ja Morant just set the record for most points in a return to the lineup, and the Pacers are playing the second game of a back to back on the road off a big win. Bad spot for Pacers, good spot for Grizz.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on SAC.

This looks like a huge let down spot for the Celtics, losing in overtime in a late game at Golden State last night. Now they play the second game of a back to back on the West Coast in a different time zone. Tatum and Brown each played 40+ minutes in the loss to the Warriors, and I would be shocked if they didn't get a lighter workload here in this spot. The Celtics have lost four of their last five versus teams from the Western Conference, and they are 0-6 ATS in their last six on the road.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on LAC.

So the Clippers lost six in a row after the James Harden trade, but after Russell Westbrook offered to come off the bench, things started clicking. A few days before Christmas and the Clippers look like the best team in the NBA. They have won eight in a row, and they take on a Dallas team tonight that could be without three starters. The Clippers have won five of their last six on the road and they are 6-2 ATS in their last eight versus Dallas.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on HOU.

The Rockets are a Jeckyll and Hyde team at home and on the road. They are 11-1 at home, and just a short favorite against the Atlanta Hawks, who have a losing record on the road. The Hawks are just 1-10 ATS in their last 11 overall, and they have failed to cover in seven of their last eight on the road. They are 4-8 straight up in their last 12 versus Houston.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on N.O.

The Grizzlies will get Ja Morant back tonight, and there is no doubt that Memphis will be a better team with his return. Don't expect that impact to be significant here in the second game of a back to back on the road at New Orleans. He hasn't played since the first round of last year's playoffs. Normally in a situation like this you expect to see a limited number of minutes in the first game back. The Pelicans are winners of four straight, and three of those four wins were blowouts.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under.

So we go inside the numbers here and we find that both these teams rank in the Top 10 in the NBA in opponent's scoring average. Minnesota ranks 2nd allowing less than 106 points per game. Both teams also rank in the bottom 10 in the NBA in pace of play, and Miami ranks 28th averaging just 100 possessions per game. These teams have gone under in three of four head to head meetings dating back to 2021.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on ORL.

The Celtics are undefeated at home this season, but this appears to be a tough spot for the home team. Boston is playing the second game of a back to back after winning back to back home games in a two game set versus Cleveland. History favors the visitors here, as the Magic are 6-0 ATS in the last six head to head meetings. What is really shocking, is that Orlando has won four straight outright in this series.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on SAC.

The Kings got off to a slow start, and De'Aaron Fox missed some games. They come into tonight's home game against the Thunder as winners of 11 of their last 16. Only two of those losses came at home. History favors the Kings, as they are 9-1 in the last 10 head to head meetings. They won all five home meetings during that span, and one of those wins was just a few weeks ago. The Kings are coming off a blowout loss to the Clippers, and this looks like a get right game.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 2* play on Under.

We expect a high scoring game here in Milwaukee tonight, but how high are we talking. This is the biggest number I have ever seen, and I think there are just so many things that can happen to prevent these two offensive juggernauts from getting there. Putting things in perspective, last week's meeting in the In-Season Tourney ended with a final score of 128-119, going under the inflated number. The previous head to head meeting went over the listed number of 239.5, but the score of 126-124 wouldn't have come anywhere near this number. The over is 7-3 in the last 10 head to head meetings, but only three of those games saw enough points to go over this inflated total.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on SAC.

The Kings finished first in the Pacific Division last year, and they currently trail the LA Lakers by just a half game. They host the Brooklyn Nets tonight, and a win could put them in first place. The Kings won and covered in both head to head meetings versus the Nets last year. They won at home by a score of 153-121. The Kings are 5-1 ATS in their last six versus teams from the Eastern Conference.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under.

The Pacers are cooking fire heading into the NBA In-Season Tournament Final, but the Lakers may be able to cool them off. These two teams have gone under in three straight head to head meetings, and the Lakers have held opponents to just 105 points per game in their last five. We saw LA hold the Pelicans to just 89 points in the Semi Finals. Expect a strong defensive effort here in a Championship Game.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on the Under.

These two rivals rank 3rd and 4th respectively in opponent's scoring average, and history tells us that low scores have been the norm in recent meetings. They have failed to reach the total in three of the last four head to head meetings, and both previous meetings this season have gone under. The Celtics have won nine straight at home and the total has gone under in 10 of Boston's last 14 games overall.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under.

The Oklahoma City Thunder come in averaging over 119 points per game, but the Rockets rank 2nd in the NBA in opponent's scoring average allowing 107 points per game. These teams have gone over this number in the last two meetings, but both those games were at Oklahoma City. They have gone under in four straight at Houston. The total has gone under in eight of Houston's last 11 games, and they have won eight straight home games.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on SAC.

The Kings are 9-3 in their last 12 overall, and they sit first overall in the Pacific Division. They host New Orleans Monday, and the Pelicans are 3-6 on the road. New Orleans has lost three straight road games, and they have failed to cover in six of their last seven road games. The home team has won four of the last five head to head meetings. I think the Pelicans run into a buzz saw here in Sacramento.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on the under.

This matchup features two of the top 10 defensive teams in the NBA. In fact the Knicks rank 1st in the NBA in opponents scoring average allowing 105 points per game. The Raptors have failed to reach the total in each of their last three games, and this looks like a matchup where both teams are content to play at a slow pace. A few weeks ago an article was published in The Athleitc titled: "Toronto Raptors are slow, stingy and soft on glass" ... noting that they ranked 28th in the NBA in pace of play. I suspect that one of these teams will fail to score 100 points in this game.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 2* play on Under.

The Rockets lost a tough one last night in Dallas, but they could catch a break in their second game of a back to back at Denver. The Nuggets are banged up, and it remains to be seen how much of their starting lineup can play. Ime Udoka has done a helluva job making this team competitive, and the Rockets currently rank #1 in the NBA in opponents scoring average. The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Denver's last 15 games against an opponent in the Western Conference conference, and they are trending 13-7 overall to the under. Houston has gone under in seven of their last nine overall.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on MIN.

The Thunder are coming off a home loss to Philly, and off the court issues may be a distraction for a young team that were off to such a good start. They are in a tough spot here in Minnesota, and it's fair to say that the T-Wolves have had their number. Minnesota is 8-1 SU in the last nine head to head meetings. Minnesota has also covered the spread in eight of their last nine home games, and they are 11-2 SU in their last 13 overall.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on the Pistons.

I feel like a bit of a Sadist betting on a game between the two worst teams in the NBA. The Pistons have lost 13 straight overall, and Washington has lost nine straight. As improbable as it may seem, one of these two teams will win tonight's game. My money is on the home team that is at least healthy. Detroit is 4-1 ATS in their last five home games versus Washington.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Dallas.

The Mavs beat the Lakers 104-101 in their last game, almost blowing a 20-point lead in the 4th quarter. They are back at the Staples Center tonight to take on the Clippers, who have lost seven of 10 since the James Harden trade. The Clippers are playing the second game of a back to back and all the starters played heavy minutes in a loss to the Pelicans last night. Not only has LA lost seven of 10, but the wins during that span came against Houston and San Antonio. This looks like a tough spot for the older Clippers against Luka and Kyrie who are firing on all cylinders.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on DAL.

The Lakers are 6-1 in their last seven overall, but the one loss came in the second game of a back to back. Anthony Davis was terrible in the loss to the Kings, scoring nine points on 3-of-9 shooting. The Mavs come in well rested, and they are hungry coming off back to back losses. Kyrie scored 38 points in a win over the Lakers last March, his last visit to the Staples Center. Luka Doncic didn't even play in that game. This just looks like a great spot for the Mavs, and a let down spot for LA after beating Utah by 31 last night.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on TOR.

When the Pistons hired Monte Williams as their head coach, it may have put an end to the "Casey Curse". The Pistons owned the Raptors under Casey, who was spurned by the Raptors despite several winning seasons as bench boss in Toronto. The Pistons come in as losers of 10 straight, and the majority of those losses were of the blowout variety. Despite failing to cover in nine of the last 10 meetings, the Raptors have won four straight in this series. A healthy OJ Anunoby should benefit the home team.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on GSW.

I am rolling the dice here hoping Steph Curry plays as a game time decision. Kerr said he might miss "a game or two", and he's missed the Warriors last two games. They are playing the second game of a two game set at home versus Oklahoma City, and while the Thunder won big in the first leg, they were only up by one-point with 2:41 remaining in the third quarter. Kerr limited his starters minutes in that game, and guys like Paul and Wiggins should get more time tonight if Curry doesn't play. It's normally a good play to take the team coming off a loss in a two game set like this, even if the Warriors are shorthanded.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on OKC.

No Curry and no Draymond for the Warriors, and they have lost four straight and five of six. It's fair to say that these are teams trending in opposite directions, as Oklahoma City has won four of five. The Dubs have lost four of their five home games, and this team just looks like a mess at the moment. I like the Thunder to win big here at the Chase Center.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on SAC.

The Kings finished near the top of the Western Conference standings last year, and forced a Game 7 versus Golden State in the playoffs. They got off to a slow start without D'Aaron Fox, but they come into LA as winners of three in a row and sitting in first place in the Pacific. Fox returned Monday, and he looked as good as ever going for 28 points on 11-of-20 shooting in a win over the Cavs. The Lakers could be in a let down spot here, coming off a blowout win over Memphis, and playing the second game of a back to back. The Kings have won seven of their last 10 versus LA, and four of their last five in LA.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on ATL.

The Magic have been a solid play at home in recent seasons, but they are thin with a couple starters out of the lineup here. Atlanta comes in off a loss but has won four of their last five. History favors the Hawks, who have won eight of the last 10 meetings outright. The Hawks are 7-3 ATS in those games, and they are 3-1 SU in their last four at Orlando.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on SAC.

Portland is expected to finish at or near the bottom of the Western Conference this season, and with two starters including their leading scorer out of the lineup for this road game, they could get blown out. Sure the Kings are without De'Aaron Fox, but they still have the depth and talent advantage as well as home court.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on PHI.

The Sixers sent James Harden out of town, and they are ready to move on. The Suns were talking big after acquiring Bradley Beal, but he's yet to play a game. They have everything riding on their BIG 3, and they might be down to 1 here in Philly as Booker is questionable. Ultimately a lack of depth should be what prevents the Suns from winning a road game against a well balanced contender on the road.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under.

The Nuggets have gone under this number in all of their games this season, and they have gone over this number just once in their last eight games versus Dallas. Opponents have averaged just 103.6 points per game so far, and the Nuggets did rank in the Top 10 in opponent scoring average last season. Dallas is 4-0 and the Mavs have averaged 222.5 points in those games. They have had a soft schedule so far, and this Game at Denver should be a far bigger challenge for them.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on NYK.

I had the Knicks in last night's win in Cleveland, and often I look to fade a team that wins Game 1 of a home and home series. This is a different situation all together though, as the Cavs are banged up, and Donovan Mitchell was a game time decision to play with a hamstring injury last night. He played, but will he be good to go in the second game of a back to back? Here is what I said yesterday: "The Cavs have some key injuries, and Donovan Mitchell is expected to be a game time decision tonight. If he plays, he's dealing with a sore hamstring that is likely to affect his performance. Starting PG Darius Garland and Center Jared Allen are both out with injuries. The Knicks are 7-1 straight up in the last eight meetings versus the Cavs, and they have won three of their last four at Cleveland. The Knicks have lost two of three to start the season, but they have been competitive even in those losses. At full strength, this spot looks ideal for the Knicks to get back into the win column."

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on the NYK.

The Cavs have some key injuries, and Donovan Mitchell is expected to be a game time decision tonight. If he plays, he's dealing with a sore hamstring that is likely to affect his performance. Starting PG Darius Garland and Center Jared Allen are both out with injuries. The Knicks are 7-1 straight up in the last eight meetings versus the Cavs, and they have won three of their last four at Cleveland. The Knicks have lost two of three to start the season, but they have been competitive even in those losses. At full strength, this spot looks ideal for the Knicks to get back into the win column.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under.

These teams went under in three of four meetings last season, and the total for tonight's game is far higher than it was in any of those games. Denver ranked 5th in opponent's scoring average last season, and three games in they rank 5th in that category so far this year. The Jazz have gone over in each of their first three games, but they faced opponents that were willing to pay at their desired pace. On the road at Denver, we expect the Nuggets to dictate the pace and style of this game.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on SAC.

The young Kings pushed the Warriors to the brink in last year's playoffs, and while the Dubs are a year older, the Kings are only getting better. Sacramento was the highest scoring team in the NBA last year, and they have picked up right where they left off by scoring 130 in their season opening win over Utah. The addition of Euro League MVP Sasha Vuzenkov isn't going to hurt. The Lakers looked old in their opening night loss on the road in Denver, and I think they will look old here against the Kings in Sacramento.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on SAC.

Lets not overreact to the Warriors losing at home on Opening Night to a shorthanded Phoenix team. Maybe they missed Draymond Green, maybe Chris Paul needs more time to work his win into a new team. Regardless of any of that, following up with a road game at Sacramento is a tough spot. The younger Kings pushed them to the brink in last year's playoffs, and while the Dubs are a year older, the Kings are only getting better. Sacramento was the highest scoring team in the NBA last year, and they have picked up right where they left off by scoring 130 in their season opening win over Utah. The addition of Euro League MVP Sasha Vuzenkov isn't going to hurt.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under.

The Sixers ranked 3rd in the NBA in scoring defense last season, and they failed to reach the total in three of their four games against the Bucks. These teams played last October in the first meeting of the season, and Milwaukee won that game by a score of 90-88. Both these teams averaged over 115 points per game last season, but it might be a bit too early in the season to expect a well oiled machine on offense. I expect Philly to muddy it up a bit, and with Damian Lillard playing his first game for the Bucks they might still be learning how to gel.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Over.

The Spurs ranked dead last in the NBA in opponents scoring average, allowing over 121 points per game. They have gone over in six straight versus Texas rivals Dallas, and during that span they have done plenty of scoring in their own right. San Antonio scored an average of 123 points in their last six meetings versus the Mavs. San Antonio did plenty of scoring in the pre-season, with 120 or more in three of their five games. We might see another shootout in Texas tonight.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 2* play on GSW.

Sure KD is running his mouth about an unstoppable big three? Did he learn nothing in last year's playoffs? A lack of depth killed the Suns last season, and their bench looks even thinner as we get ready for this season. Two of their big three are listed as questionable, although they both probably play. This is a revenge spot for veteran PG Chris Paul, and while I don't know if it works out long term for the Dubs.... I expect him to play well in this game.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under.

The Finals are expected to come to a conclusion tonight, and if that's the case there is a trend of low scores in closeout games in the NBA Finals over the last 10 seasons. The under is 8-2 in the last 10 closeout games in the Finals, and the majority of those games went under 200 combined points. The Heat have failed to score 100 points in three of four games in this series, and they are averaging 99 points per game in their last eight in the playoffs. Seven of those games went under the total.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Over.

The total for Game 1 was sitting at 219, and it has been trending lower every game. Now in Game 4 the number sits at just 210.5, after Miami shot just 37 percent from the field in Game 3. We should expect some positive regression for Miami, and I think they score 100+ here tonight. It's tough to see anything different from Denver as the mismatch with Jokic is just something that isn't going to change. The over is 13-5 in Heat's last 18 games following a double-digit loss at home.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Denver.

Before this series started the Denver Nuggets were an overwhelming favorite to win the series. They won comfortably in Game 1, and it quickly became apparent that Miami had no answers for the Joker. The Nuggets were up by eight heading into the 4th quarter of Game 2, but the Heat went on a run and ended up winning 111-108. Miami shot out the lights, hitting 48.6 percent from beyond the arc. This is an outlier, well above their playoff average of 39 percent in the post-season. Miami certainly can't count on hitting half of their three-point attempts moving forward, and they still can't stop the Joker. Denver shot 52 percent from the field in Game 2, and Joker scored 41 points on 16-of-28 shooting. The Nuggets simply need to crank up their effort on defense, and I expect them to do just that in Game 3 in Miami.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Over.

One of the stories in Game 1 was the Heat attempting an NBA Playoff record low two free throws. This is one of the factors that resulted in such a low score. Here is what I said prior to the game: "The Miami Heat lead the playoffs in three-point shooting, hitting 39 percent from beyond the arc. The Nuggets aren't far behind hitting 38.6 percent of their three-point attempts. The Heat come in averaging 112 points per game while Denver has averaged 116 points per game in the playoffs. The Joker has put up incredible numbers, averaging 29.9 points, 13.3 rebounds and 10.3 assists. He's put up those numbers against the best defenders in the NBA. The Heat rank near the bottom in the NBA in rebounds per game, and have one of the league's smallest starting lineups. I expect Joker to put up video game numbers in this series, and I like the total to go over in Game 1." The total for Game 2 is several points lower than it was in Game 1, and I expect the Heat to get to the free throw line more often, and hit more threes in Game 2. Whatever the Heat do, I can't see them stopping Joker. I''l take the over here.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Over.

The Miami Heat lead the playoffs in three-point shooting, hitting 39 percent from beyond the arc. The Nuggets aren't far behind hitting 38.6 percent of their three-point attempts. The Heat come in averaging 112 points per game while Denver has averaged 116 points per game in the playoffs. The Joker has put up incredible numbers, averaging 29.9 points, 13.3 rebounds and 10.3 assists. He's put up those numbers against the best defenders in the NBA. The Heat rank near the bottom in the NBA in rebounds per game, and have one of the league's smallest starting lineups. I expect Joker to put up video game numbers in this series, and I like the total to go over in Game 1.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under.

Here is what I said prior to Game 6: "We've seen some big money moving in on the under in Game 6. This might as well be an elimination game for both teams, but technically the Heat could try to win a Game 7 on the road as a likely double digit underdog. We saw this series go seven games last year, and Boston won 100-96 here in this building in Game 7. Boston has gone under in five of their last six at Miami. This might be the type of game where the winning team doesn't even score 100 points." We are calling for history to repeat itself in Game 7 of the ECF.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 2* play on Under.

We've seen some big money moving in on the under in Game 6. This might as well be elimination game for both teams, but technically the Heat could try to win a Game 7 on the road as a likely double digit underdog. We saw this series go seven games last year, and Boston won 100-96 here in this building in Game 7. Boston has gone under in five of their last six at Miami. This might be the type of game where the winning team doesn't even score 100 points.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on MIA.

So the Celtics got a game, but they are still down 3-1 and they lost both home games in this series. A return to The Garden has the Celtics as a massive favorite in Game 5. You remember what Einstein said about insanity, doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result. The Heat were a huge underdog in Game 5 in Milwaukee, and they won that game 128-126. Miami still has the better coach, a supporting cast that has played it's role perfectly a superstar that has delivered in the clutch more than anyone wearing green and white. I'll take the points, and I'll sprinkle on the moneyline.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on MIA.

So I said prior to both Game 3 of this series, and Game 4 of the WCF that the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result. It was no surprise to see Denver win Game 4, as NBA teams up 3-0 in a series win Game 4 roughly 68 percent of the time historically. The Nuggets did it on the road, and the Heat can do it here at home. It's so clear that Jimmy Butler is the best player in this series, and Erik Spoelstra is by far the superior coach. I been riding the Heat this entire post-season, and if it ain't broke don't fix it!

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Denver.

My comments about Game 3 in Miami are just as applicable here in Game 4 in LA. Here is what I said prior to last night's game: 

Albert Einstein said that "the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result". In my humble opinion betting Boston as a road favorite in this spot fits that description perfectly. The myth that Boston is the superior team has been exposed. Jimmy Butler is the best player in this series, and Erik Spoelstra is by far the better coach. Now the Heat have home court, and the Celtics are still reeling trying to figure out what went wrong. I'll take the points, even though I don't think I'll need them. 

IMO this is another example of the Wrong Team Favored! 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on MIA.

Albert Einstein said that "the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result". In my humble opinion betting Boston as a road favorite in this spot fits that description perfectly. The myth that Boston is the superior team has been exposed. Jimmy Butler is the best player in this series, and Erik Spoelstra is by far the better coach. Now the Heat have home court, and the Celtics are still reeling trying to figure out what went wrong. I'll take the points, even though I don't think I'll need them.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on LAL.

Call me a conspiracy theorist if you want to, but the NBA Finals are about to be a ratings disaster with the Denver Nuggets versus Miami Heat matchup looking more and more likely. If the Lakers can't get back in this series, a lot of money goes up in smoke. I think you're going to see the refs calls fouls for even looking at AD and LeBron in tonight's game. LA won Game 3 against the Warriors 127-97, and they had an edge in free throws to the tune of 37-17. In Game 3 against the Grizzlies they won 111-101. It's not like the first two games in Denver weren't close, and the Nuggets are 1-5 ATS in the last six meetings in Los Angeles. The Lakers are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games, and 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games following a straight up loss.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 2* play on BOS.

As much as I disagree with how big a favorite Boston was in Game 1, and here in Game 2, I just think this is a spot where they are gonna come out swinging and they will get all the calls. I have joked about a script in the league office that has the Celtics playing the Lakers in the Finals, but if you saw the referee in Game 1 react to Jimmy Butler scoring a key bucket, you would believe it. Check it out on Twitter it's going viral. The Celtics lost Game 1 at home versus Philly, and they came back and won 121-87 in Game 2. Don't be surprised if we see something similar here.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on Under.

Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals was a high scoring affair, and because of that the total for Game 2 is five points higher than it was in Game 1. The series opener saw Denver dominate the first half, but the Lakers made adjustments that allowed them to come storming back. When they stuck Rui Hachimura on the Joker, the REAL MVP was held to just 3 points on 0-of-2 shooting in the 4th quarter. Don't be surprised if things tighten up in Game 2, and keep in mind that both teams shot better than 54 percent from the field when both teams are averaging under 50 percent in these playoffs.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on the Miami Heat.

This is a rematch of last year's Eastern Conference Finals, and the Celtics won that series in a Game 7 that was decided on the final shot. Yet the bookmakers have installed Boston as a huge favorite here in Game 1 and for the series. Miami closed out the #1 seed Milwaukee Bucks in just five games in the first round. They needed six games to eliminate the New York Knicks. That has them playing two fewer games than Boston so far. The team that has played fewer games heading into the Conference Finals, has advanced to the Finals in 16 of the last 17 such occasions. Coming off a big Game 7 win over Philly, with Jason Tatum scoring 51 points, could set the Celtics up for a let down in Game 1. I'll take the points.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 2* play on Under.

The Lakers could suffer a let down here off a big win over the Warriors in Game 6 in LA. This is Denver, probably the toughest place to play in the league. The home team won all four meetings in the regular season series. While the Lakers are coming off a high scoring series versus Golden State, and Denver is coming off a high scoring series versus Phoenix, this matchup features two teams that are ranked above average in defensive efficiency. The Nuggets ranked near the bottom of the league in pace of play. The under is 8-3 in the Nuggets last 11 home games, and they have failed to reach the total in six of their last seven off a double digit win.

GL,

Jesse Schule.

This is a 10* play on BOS.

The Celtics have all the momentum heading into Game 7 at the Garden. Boston is 26-9 all time in Game 7s, and the Sixers are 6-11 all time in Game 7s. Home teams have won 79 percent of Game 7s all time in the NBA Playoffs. The Celtics are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 home games, and they have covered in eight of their last 11 versus Philadelphia. The home team might get the calls here, and the Sixers could end up on the wrong side of a one-sided Game 7.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on GSW.

I said prior to Game 5 that the Lakers had enjoyed a disparity in free throw attempts to the tune of 103-51 in the first four games. I wasn't the only one talking about it, and I speculated that we'd see it even out. That's exactly what happened in Game 5, as both teams had 15 free throw attempts. I expect this trend to carry over into Game 6, and I really think the Lakers are in trouble here after AD and LeBron got banged up in Game 5. Buckle up, because I think this series is going to a Game 7!

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 2* play on MIA.

The Knicks were able to extend the series and force a Game 6 in Miami. They won Game 5 at the free throw line, with 21 more attempts than Miami. It's unlikely that they will get those calls on the road here in Game 6. The Heat are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games, and Jimmy Buckets is averaging over 35 points per game at home in these playoffs. The Knicks are 3-7 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Miami, and as much as many would like to see a Game 7, I just don't see it in the cards.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under. 

So I am going to focus on Devin Booker here. He shot 79 percent from the field in the two games in Phoenix, scoring over 80 points. Of course the total went over in both Games 3 & 4. Booker cooled off in Game 5 in Denver, shooting just 42 percent from the field. Asking him to make 4 out of every 5 shots here in Game 6 doesn't seem realistic to me. These teams went under in two of three regular season meetings, with the exception being a 128-125 overtime win for the Nuggets at Phoenix. This number appears to be inflated for an elimination game. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on MIA.

The Heat closed out the Bucks in Game 5 in Milwaukee, and they are an underdog here in a potential close out game in New York. I pity the fool who bets against Jimmy Butler in the playoffs! I said this before Game 4: "This isn't the same Heat team we saw during the regular season, and this isn't the regular season version of Jimmy Butler. Playoff Jimmy is a different beast all together. Butler scored 28 points, leading all scorers in Game 3. This is despite playing on a bad ankle. He's likely to be even better here in Game 4. The Heat are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games, and they have covered in six straight overall. Giannis and the Bucks couldn't win in Miami, and I think it's asking too much for the Knicks to win on the road here."

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on DEN.

So the story in Phoenix was Devin Booker scoring 83 combined points on 79 percent shooting in Games 3 and 4. He's a career 46 percent shooter, and he shot 49 percent during the regular season. If the Suns need Booker to make every shot he takes to win close games in Phoenix, that's likely a recipe for disaster in Denver in Game 5. Kevin Durant scored 39 points in Game 3, and 36 points in Game 4. He got to the free throw line for 29 attempts in those games. He averaged just 26.5 points per game in the first two games in Denver, and only shot six free throws in those games. The last Game in Denver the Suns were held to just 87 points. The home team is 9-1 straight up and Denver is 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on MIA.

This isn't the same Heat team we saw during the regular season, and this isn't the regular season version of Jimmy Butler. Playoff Jimmy is a different beast all together. Butler scored 28 points, leading all scorers in Game 3. This is despite playing on a bad ankle. He's likely to be even better here in Game 4. The Heat are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games, and they have covered in six straight overall. Giannis and the Bucks couldn't win in Miami, and I think it's asking too much for the Knicks to win on the road here. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on Under. 

The Suns are back in this series after Devin Booker shot out the lights in Game 3. He scored 47 points on 20-of-25 shooting. I don't like his chances of hitting almost every shot he makes here in Game 4. After the total went over in the series opener, we saw Denver hold the Suns to just 87 points in Game 2. I think we see another low scoring defensive battle here in this pivotal Game 4. The under is 9-4-2 in the Nuggets last 15 Conference Semifinals games, and they should bring the defensive intensity here tonight. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on MIA ML. 

The Knicks won Game 2, but their performance was far from convincing. The expression on Jimmy Butler's face said it all, he knows he's going back to Miami and winning Game 3. Butler scored 56 in Game 4 at home, and then scored 42 in the series clinching win in Milwaukee in Game 5. Even without Jimmy Buckets, the Knicks just barely won Game 2 at the Garden. Miami has the most valuable player in this series, and they are well coached. I think the coaching matchup is a mismatch in favor of the Heat. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 2* play on the Sixers. 

The Sixers got their rear ends spanked in Game 2 despite the return of Joel Embiid, but that was really no surprise. The series heads back to Philly tied 1-1 and the Sixers are still in the driver's seat. They should come out strong in the first half here on their home court. Philly has a home record of 31-12 (regular season and playoffs combined). While these two teams split the season series and the home team went 2-2, the home team was 3-0-1 straight up in the first half. The Sixers were 3-1 ATS in the first half in the regular season series. I think the Celtics will be fortunate just to weather the storm here in the first half. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 2* play on GSW.

We saw the Lakers win Game 1 on the road in Memphis, and they came out and lost 103-93 in Game 2 to a Grizzlies team without Ja Morant. They were outscored 30-19 in the first quarter, and trailing by 15 at halftime. I expect to see a similar result here against a Warriors team that rarely loses at home. The Warriors are 40-19-1 ATS in their last 60 home games, and they have covered in five of their last six coming off a loss. Even in a loss in Game 2 of their series versus the Kings, they came out and outscored Sacramento 23-17 in the first quarter. Expect the Warriors to come out swinging here in Game 2 at home. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 2* play on GSW.

The Warriors are riding high after Steph scored 50 in Game 7 in Sacramento. They won two of three home games in the series, and they were 33-8 at home during the regular season. The Lakers lost two of three in Memphis, and the Grizzlies won Game 2 without Ja Morant. The crowd is going to be all fired up at the Chase Center, and the Lakers might struggle early in Game 1. The Lakers trailed at halftime in all three road games in the first round.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 2* play on NYK.

So the Knicks face a must win game at home in Game 2 at the Garden, and the status of Jimmy Butler is up in the air. The line would indicate that he's not expected to play, but even if he comes in and plays hurt, it's unlikely to benefit an already shorthanded Heat team. Butler has carried the Heat in the absence of Tyler Hero and Victor Oladipo. The Heat should probably wave the white flag here, let Butler rest up and make his return in Game 3 at home with the series tied 1-1. I'll take the Knickerbockers to win by double digits here.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on DEN.

I had the Nuggets in Game 1, and here is what I said prior to the game: "So the injury to Kawhi allowed the Suns to escape from the first round unscathed, but lets not forget that they got exposed in Game 1. This team has no depth, and Durant and Chris Paul are injury prone vets on the downside of their careers. Denver finished first in the West, with a 34-7 home record. These teams split the season series and the home team won all four games. The Suns were just 17-24 on the road, and I expect them to struggle in Denver in Game 1 at altitude." Game 1 wasn't close, and I don't think it gets any better for the Suns here in Game 2.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on Under. 

So the first half total has gone under in five of six games, and now the bookmakers have made the adjustment. I don't think they have adjusted enough for a Game 7 though. There have been 15 Game 7s played in the NBA since 2018. The combined total fell short of 200 in 12 of those games. Only one of those 15 games went over the listed total for this game, when the Clippers beat the Mavericks 126-111 in 2021. We saw 109 points scored in the first half of Game 6, and I can't see them scoring more than that here in a Game 7. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on DEN.

So the injury to Kawhi allowed the Suns to escape from the first round unscathed, but lets not forget that they got exposed in Game 1. This team has no depth, and Durant and Chris Paul are injury prone vets on the downside of their careers. Denver finished first in the West, with a 34-7 home record. These teams split the season series and the home team won all four games. The Suns were just 17-24 on the road, and I expect them to struggle in Denver in Game 1 at altitude.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 3* play on LAL.

I had the Lakers in Game 4, and here is what I said before tip off: "The Grizzlies were the best home team in the NBA during the regular season, with a record of 35-6. They struggled on the road, and that doesn't bode well for them in Game 3 in LA. There is the potential for Ja Morant to attempt to play through pain despite a hand injury, which might be counter-productive for the Grizz. He's not the only player nursing an injury for the Grizzlies, and the veteran Lakers appear to be the healthier of the two teams. The home team is 8-2 straight up in the last 10 head to head meetings, and Memphis has lost four of their last five at LA. The Grizzlies are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 road games versus a team with a winning home record." On top of everything else, expect the Lakers to get favorable treatment from the officials here. 

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on GSW.

So when it was announced that De'Aaron Fox was going to play despite a broken finger, the Warriors went from -4 in Game 5 to -1.5. I said that he could be a liability if he wasn't at 100 percent. He appeared to play pretty well, but his 24 points was a series low. He shot a series low 36 percent from the field and committed a series high six turnovers. I don't see it getting any better for the Kings here in Game 6. The Warriors won four series in last year's playoffs, and in their four series clinching wins the total went under in all four. The average combined total in those games was 207.5. I'll take the Dubs to win and the game to go under the total.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on Under.

So when it was announced that De'Aaron Fox was going to play despite a broken finger, the Warriors went from -4 in Game 5 to -1.5. I said that he could be a liability if he wasn't at 100 percent. He appeared to play pretty well, but his 24 points was a series low. He shot a series low 36 percent from the field and committed a series high six turnovers. I don't see it getting any better for the Kings here in Game 6. The Warriors won four series in last year's playoffs, and in their four series clinching wins the total went under in all four. The average combined total in those games was 207.5. I'll take the Dubs to win and the game to go under the total.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on on MEM. 

The Grizzlies face elimination in Game 5 at home, and I expect them to respond after losing back to back games in LA. Memphis was an NBA best 35-6 at home during the regular season. The Lakers are in a good spot, and they will come into Game 5 knowing that even if they lose they go back home with a chance to to close out the series in Game 6. The Lakers are 3-7 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Memphis. The Grizzlies had a 30-19 lead at the end of the first quarter in the last game in Memphis. Expect a fast start for the home team as they look to avoid elimination. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on CLE.

The Cavs face elimination in Game 5, and we should expect them to out swinging early here on their home court. The Cavs were 32-11 at home during the regular season, and they were the best defensive team in the NBA, ranking #1 in opponent scoring average. Donovan Mitchell is coming off a terrible Game 4 in New York, but we expect him to bounce back here at home. He averaged 31.8 points per game in four regular season games against the Knicks, and he scored 38 points in Game 1.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under.

I bet the under in Game 1 of this series, and I said the following before the game: “Minnesota is coming off back to back unders in both of their play-in games, and they held the Thunder to just 95 points in their last game. The Nuggets own an elite defense, and they are particularly good at home. The under is 11-2 in the Nuggets last 13 overall, and they have failed to reach the total in five straight home games.” With Minnesota facing elimination once again, don't be surprised if Game 5 in Denver looks a lot like Game 4 in Minnesota.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 2* play on LAL.

Here is what I said before Game 3: "The Grizzlies were the best home team in the NBA during the regular season, with a record of 35-6. They struggled on the road, and that doesn't bode well for them in Game 3 in LA. There is the potential for Ja Morant to attempt to play through pain despite a hand injury, which might be counter-productive for the Grizz. He's not the only player nursing an injury for the Grizzlies, and the veteran Lakers appear to be the healthier of the two teams. The home team is 8-2 straight up in the last 10 head to head meetings, and Memphis has lost four of their last five at LA. The Grizzlies are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 road games versus a team with a winning home record." The Grizzlies simply have no answers for AD, and I expect them to go back to Memphis trailing 3-1 in the series.

GL,

Jesse Schule