This is a 5* play on DAL.

The Mavs have looked terrible so far in the NBA Finals, but there's nothing like home cooking. Since 2003 teams down 0-2 in a playoff series returning home off back to back losses where they scored fewer than 100 points in both games, are 34-10 SU in the first half of Game 3. According to Yahoo.com, ratings for the 2024 Finals are down 8 percent since the Celtics last Finals appearance in 2022. Many bettors suspect that with an incentive to extend a series, officials often put their thumb on the scale ever so slightly. While the Celtics swept the Pacers, they trailed 69-57 in the first half of Game 3 in Indiana. Dallas has won Game 3 at home in all three previous series in these playoffs. We are projecting the Mavs to shoot better, play harder, and get the benefit of the doubt from the officials. This should move the needle enough to allow them to get back into this series with a win in Game 3.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on DAL.

The Celtics swept the Pacers despite failing to cover in three of four games. They trailed for the better part of the series, coming from behind in Games 1,3 & 4. Their path to the Finals was an easy one, especially in comparison to Dallas. The Mavs come in battle tested, beating the 1st place team in the West (Oklahoma City) and a Minnesota team that upset the defending champs. While the Celtics had the best record in the NBA in the regular season, it's important to consider that the Eastern Conference is inferior to the West. These two teams have an identical record over their final 20 games of the regular season, and Dallas has been more impressive in the post-season. The Celtics came out flat in Game 1 against the Pacers, and they might be a bit rusty given 10 days off since Game 4 at Indiana. I'll take the points.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on Under.

The historical trends are clear, we see low scores in NBA Game 7s. The Knicks are banged up, with only two healthy starters remaining. This game should get ugly, very ugly. Expect a slow pace, with both teams struggling offensively and battling for every possession.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on IND.

The Knicks might be in big trouble here, as both Jalen Brunson and OG Anunoby suffered injuries in Game 2. Brunson was able to play through the pain, while Anunoby left and did not return. It seems likely that one or both could be unavailable for Game 3. Of course Brunson gets all the headlines as he's leading the playoffs in scoring, but keep in mind that the Knicks were only considered a contender after the trade that brought in OG Anunoby from Toronto. Without him they have a record of 30-29, and with him they were 20-3 during the regular season, and 6-2 in the playoffs. He's their best defender, and it would be a huge loss if he misses any time. Already without Julius Randle, Mitchell Robinson, and Bojan Bogdanovic, the Knicks are running out of bodies to throw out there. Next man up only works when you have the depth on the bench, and right now the Knicks don't have any depth. Indiana on the other hand has seven guys averaging double digits in scoring. Tyrese Haliburton scored 34 points despite being listed as questionable for Game 2. I like the Pacers to win Game 3 wire to wire, and I really think New York is in trouble in this series moving forward. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on NYK.

The Pacers got lucky that they faced a Milwaukee team without Giannis and Damian Lillard for most of their first round series. Even the shorthanded Bucks held the Pacers under 100 points in wins in Game 1 and Game 5 in Milwaukee. The Bucks are a below average defensive team, while the Knicks ranked 1st in the Eastern Conference in opponents scoring average. Jalen Brunson averaged 35.5 points, 9 rebound and 4.5 assists per game in the first round, while Tyrese Haliburton averaged just 16 points per game in the first round, and has really struggled since the All Star break. With Haliburton questionable (expected to play) everything favors the Knicks in Game 1. I like New York to open up an early lead and win wire to wire.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on OVER.

I had the over in Game 2, and here is what I said before the game: 

“Game 1 went way under the total of 231.5, and the opening number for Game 2 was 225.5. That has been bet down even further to 220.5. I think this is an over-correction. While we know scoring is down in the playoffs, and unders have cashed at a phenomenal rate so far, let's not forget who the Pacers are. They led the league in scoring, averaging 123.3 points per game, almost three points per game more than #2 Boston. The ranked second in the league in possessions per game behind the Washington Wizards. Prior to Game 1, the Pacers last game at Milwaukee had a total of 262. Four of five regular season meetings saw totals of 250 or higher. The Pacers had scored 119 or more points in nine straight versus Milwaukee before Game 1.”

I think Game 1 was an anomaly, and we should see high scores in this series moving forward. The Pacers ranked 27th in the NBA in the regular season allowing over 120 points per game. Milwaukee ranked 21st in the NBA allowing over 216 points per game.

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on Over. 

I had the over in Game 2, and here is what I said before the game: 

“Game 1 went way under the total of 231.5, and the opening number for Game 2 was 225.5. That has been bet down even further to 220.5. I think this is an over-correction. While we know scoring is down in the playoffs, and unders have cashed at a phenomenal rate so far, let's not forget who the Pacers are. They led the league in scoring, averaging 123.3 points per game, almost three points per game more than #2 Boston. The ranked second in the league in possessions per game behind the Washington Wizards. Prior to Game 1, the Pacers last game at Milwaukee had a total of 262. Four of five regular season meetings saw totals of 250 or higher. The Pacers had scored 119 or more points in nine straight versus Milwaukee before Game 1.”

I think Game 1 was an anomaly, and we should see high scores in this series moving forward. 

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on Over.

Game 1 went way under the total of 231.5, and the opening number for Game 2 was 225.5. That has been bet down even further to 220.5. I think this is an over-correction. While we know scoring is down in the playoffs, and unders have cashed at a phenomenal rate so far, let's not forget who the Pacers are. They led the league in scoring, averaging 123.3 points per game, almost three points per game more than #2 Boston. The ranked second in the league in possessions per game behind the Washington Wizards. Prior to Game 1, the Pacers last game at Milwaukee had a total of 262. Four of five regular season meetings saw totals of 250 or higher. The Pacers had scored 119 or more points in nine straight versus Milwaukee before Game 1.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on the New York Knicks.

The Sixers just barely got past the Miami Heat in the Play-in, and that was with Jimmy Butler limited by a serious knee injury. Joel Embiid scored just 23 points, and his playoff struggles are fresh in the mind of Sixers fans. The 2023 MVP averaged 34.7 points per game this season, but he scored just 23.7 points per game in last year's playoffs, and 23.6 points per game in the 2022 post-season. Philly lost 3-of-4 in the season series, and scored just 86.5 points per game during that span. The Knicks ranked #1 in the Eastern Conference in opponent's scoring average, allowing 108.2 points per game. New York is 20-3 this season when OG Anunoby is in the lineup. This looks like a tough matchup for Philly.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on Under.

I had the under in the Huskies win over Illinois, and they didn't even come close to the total of 155.5. Here is what I said before tip off: "I had to rub my eyes when I saw that the total for this game opened at 155.5. I think the bookmakers came up with this number based on offensive efficiency numbers, while ignoring pace of play. Illinois may be the most efficient offense in the country, but they scored just 72 points in a low scoring battle versus Iowa State. It won't get any easier against a UCONN team that ranks 307th in pace of play averaging 68 possessions per game. UCONN hasn't seen a combined 155 points in any NCAA Tournament game in 10 years. We saw six of eight games fail to reach the total in the Sweet 16, and there is every reason to expect these teams to tighten up even more as we get closer to the Final." The Crimson Tide scored 89 points and did go over the total in their game against Clemson. That game was on pace to go under with Alabama leading 58-53 with just 8 minutes remaining, but there were 60 points scored in the final eight minutes. These teams played last Novermber, and the total for that game was 148. The Huskies won 82-67 falling well short of 161.5.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on Under.

I had to rub my eyes when I saw that the total for this game opened at 155.5. I think the bookmakers came up with this number based on offensive efficiency numbers, while ignoring pace of play. Illinois may be the most efficient offense in the country, but they scored just 72 points in a low scoring battle versus Iowa State. It won't get any easier against a UCONN team that ranks 307th in pace of play averaging 68 possessions per game. UCONN hasn't seen a combined 155 points in any NCAA Tournament game in 10 years. We saw six of eight games fail to reach the total in the Sweet 16, and there is every reason to expect these teams to tighten up even more as we get closer to the Final.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on TENN.

There aren't many teams that can shoot 3-of-25 from beyond the arc and salvage a win, but Tennessee did just that against Texas. The Vols scored 79 points per game while winning the SEC, expect them to bounce back with a better offensive performance here against Creighton. The Blue Jays also survived a close call winning in overtime after Oregon failed to win it at the free throw line in regulation. Rick Barnes past failures in the NCAA Tournament are well documented, but I wonder if that has influenced this line. The SEC champs have the horses, they have overcome some adversity, and I think it's wrong to assume past failure will haunt them forever.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on Under.

This is a rematch of last year's Natty, and UCONN won that game by a score of 76-59. The Huskies have won nine straight, and five of their last six opponents have scored 60 points or fewer. UCONN prefers to play at a slow pace, ranking 302nd nationally averaging 68 possessions per game. San Diego State averages just 69.6 possessions per game. They have played strong defense in the tournament so far, allowing an average of 61.5 points per game. We should expect a low score here, and I think the Aztecs will be held to 60 or less.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on UNC.

Both the BIG10 and the ACC appeared to have an off year, but the Tar Heels finished with the best record in their conference and led the ACC in scoring. The Spartans struggled all season, losing early to JMU and then coming into the Tourney as losers of five of seven. Many pundits asked how this Spartans team even qualified for the Tournament. As impressive as their win over the Bulldogs was on Thursday, it was part of an overall theme of SEC teams getting rolled in the first round. The Spartans shot 50 percent from the field and 43.5 percent from beyond the arc, yet only scored 69 points. Playing the Tar Heels in Charlotte is going to be a far bigger challenge.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on FAU.

Northwestern ranks 334th in pace of play averaging 67 possessions per game. They rank 4th in the BIG10 in opponent's scoring average allowing 69 points per game. The Owls won their first round matchup by a score of 66-65 versus Memphis last year. The Owls are not getting much hype for a team that went all the way to the Final Four a year ago, despite returning all their starters from that squad. They won 25 games this season, and I don't see anything stopping them from another impressive showing in the tournament. Northwestern has a few key injuries, with Ty Berry and Matt Nicholson out of the lineup. They come limping into the tournament as losers of three of their last four.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on SOCAR.

The Gamecocks were #1 in the SEC in opponents scoring average, allowing just 67 points per game. That's all the more impressive when you consider they played the likes of Tennessee, Kentucky, Alabama and Auburn. The Ducks won the PAC12 Tournament, and they have held four consecutive opponents under 70 points. While it's an impressive run for the Ducks, I think they might have peaked a little early. The Gamecocks don't get much respect from bookmakers, and even less respect from bettors. This is despite the fact that they are a highly profitable 23-10 ATS this season. Dana Altman has an impressive record at the NCAA Tournament as head coach of the Ducks, but I am not sure he has the horses this year.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on USF.

South Florida can't be that good! I am sure people been saying that all year, and if you been stepping in front of them they been costing you a ton of money. The Bulls are no bull! The real deal, they didn't win 16 games in the American by accident. The Bulls crushed ECU by 22 yesterday, and their next victim is a UAB team that has been hot and cold. UAB won some big games this season, but down the stretch they folded like a cheap suit. After a three game stretch where they beat FAU and North Texas, they went on a 1-3 run that included home losses to Rice and Wichita State. This game is South Florida's to win, and anything other than a double digit win here will qualify as a choke job IMO.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on CIN. 

The Jayhawks come into the Conference Tournament without their top two scorers (Hunter Dickinson and Kevin McCullar). This looks like a clear case of Bill Self waiving the white flag, as they look forward to the NCAA Tournament. Cincinnati will relish an opportunity to take down a blue blood, as the Bearcats need as many wins as they can get. Cinci only lost by five at Kansas during the regular season, and Dickinson and McCullar scored a combined 30 points in that game. Kansas has been average at best away from Lawrence all season, even when at full strength. They lost at UCF and at West Viriginia, and they might not have much fight in them here in a neutral site game. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on NMSU.

These are two of the bottom feeders in the Conference USA, and between the two of them they have lost 24 of 26 road games. The Aggies have been solid at home though, with a record of 11-3. This is a the final home game for the Aggies, a revenge game against Florida International who beat them 77-67 earlier this year. The Panthers are 1-11 on the road, and that win came in non conference pay in November against the Houston Christian Huskies (the minnows of the Southland).

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on Under.

These teams have a history of playing low scoring games, and Dayton's loss by a score of 49-47 at VCU last month is a fine example of that. Neither team has scored 70 points in any of the last four meetings, and the total has been 135 or lower in each of the last eight meetings. Dayton ranks 348th nationally averaging just 66 possessions per game, and VCU is a willing dance partner as they are averaging just over 68 possessions per game. Perhaps after Dayton scored 100 at Saint Louis in their last game, and tallied 80 against Davidson in their last home game, this total is a little a higher than it probably should be.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on Marist.

Iona is the big brand name in this conference, but after Rick Pitino left for St. John's he picked the roster clean. This team has a losing record in conference play, and a few weeks ago their leading scorer left the team for personal reasons. They have since lost five of six, only beating last place Manhattan. They are coming off a blowout loss at Quinnipiac, and now they are playing at Marist who are just a game back of the first place Bobcats. The Red Foxes have won six of seven, and they beat the Gaels at Iona earlier this season. This looks like a mismatch and the line is short IMO.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on SOCAR.

The Gamecocks are just one game out of first place in the SEC, and they are an underdog on the road at Texas A&M. The Aggies have lost four straight, and that includes a home loss to Arkansas. This is a revenge game for the Gamecocks, after losing at home to Texas A&M in January. South Carolina had won eight of the previous nine meetings between the two teams. These two teams are trending in opposite directions, and I'll take the points with the better team.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on TOR.

The Pacers won in Toronto by a score of 127-125 before the All Star break, but they didn't cover as a two-point favorite. The underdog has covered in each of the last four meetings between these teams, and I expect that trend to continue tonight. This is a tough spot for Indiana, playing the second game of a back to back coming off a blowout win over the Mavericks. The Pacers are just 2-8 in back to backs this season, and the two games they won were both decided by just two points. One of those losses came at home by a score of 132-131 to Toronto, and the Pacers have allowed opponents to average 126 points in those 10 games.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on MIN.

The Timberwolves ran into a desperate Milwaukee team in their first game out of the All Star break, and despite rallying late they lost 112-107. They host the Brooklyn Nets in the second game of a back to back, and the Nets looked pretty awful in a 121-93 loss at Toronto. If that's any indication of how the team is responding to the interim head coach, Brooklyn could struggle down the stretch. Brooklyn are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games against Minnesota, and they are 2-13 ATS in their last 15 games on the road. I expect the Wolves to bounce back with a double digit home win.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on NEV.

The Wolfpack are 12-1 at home, and they have a revenge game on tap against New Mexico on Tuesday. The Lobos crushed Nevada at home earlier this season by a score of 89-55. The Wolfpack had won nine straight versus New Mexico prior to that. Nevada has won four of five, and three of those four wins came against ranked teams (San Diego State, Utah State and Colorado State). New Mexico has lost two of three, with their only win during that span coming at Wyoming. This looks like two teams trending in opposite directions, and a significant edge for the home team.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on ARK.

Arkansas lost 76-66 at Georgia earlier this season, setting up a revenge spot here at home. The Bulldogs are 2-6 since that win over Arkansas, and they have struggled in recent games at Arkansas. The Razorbacks have won five straight at home versus Georgia, and all five of those games were 10+ point blowout wins. The Bulldogs built a solid record with a soft schedule early in the season, but reality is starting to set in as they play more tough SEC games. Georgia are 3-9 SU in their last 12 games against Arkansas.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on Nevada.

The Aztecs have dominated this series, winning nine of the last 10 meetings. They did lose at Nevada last year though, by a score of 75-66. San Diego State has failed to cover in eight of the last 10 meetings, and their last win at Nevada came by just one point. The Aztecs are 4-5 on the road, and Nevada is 11-1 at home this season. San Diego State is coming off a road win at Air Force, but had lost at New Mexico, Boise State and Colorado State in their previous three road games. I'll take the home team here to get the win over a ranked team.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on UAB.

The Blazers have won 10 of their last 12 games, and they are coming off an outright win as an underdog at North Texas. They had previously lost on the road at Charlotte by just six, and covered as a double digit underdog at FAU. Overall the Blazers are 4-3 on the road this season, and they have won seven straight against SMU. That includes three outright wins at SMU. The Mustangs are 10-2 at home, but their last home game was a four point win over Tulane. It looks like the home team is asked to cover too many points here.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on UK.

The Gators lost at home to Kentucky earlier this season, so is this a revenge spot? I don't like the revenge angle here, as Kentucky is the far better team and Florida struggles on the road. The Gators have lost three of four road games this season, and they were 4-7 on the road last year. Kentucky is 9-1 SU in the last 10 head to head meetings, and they have covered in five straight and eight of the last 10 versus Florida. The Gators rank dead last in the SEC in opponent's scoring, and Kentucky ranks second in the conference in scoring averaging over 88 points per game.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on Wisconsin.

The Badgers as just a slight home favorite has me scratching my head here, but after digging a little deeper I think I can see why that is. Historically the home favorite has not been a good play in this series, as the road team is 6-0 straight up in the last six meetings. This is just one indicator, and the majority of the rest of the data still points me toward Whisky. The Badgers are 10-1 at home, while Sparty has lost three of four on the road. The Badgers are 7-1 in the BIG10, while Sparty is 4-4 with all four wins coming against teams with a losing record. Wisconsin ranks 1st in the BIG10 in free throw percentage (77%) while Sparty ranks 11th (70%). That right there could prove to be the difference in a close game.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on Under.

The Nuggets have failed to reach the total in three straight, and they rank dead last in the NBA in pace of play. The Knicks are right behind them, with both teams averaging roughly 100 possessions per game. The Knicks have been a different team since the trade with Toronto, and they have now gone under in 10 of their last 11 games. These teams have gone under in four of the last six head to head meetings, and it doesn't look like the bookmakers have adjusted here with what looks like an inflated number.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on WASH.

So Colorado might well be the better team here, but they have no business coming in to Seattle as a road favorite. The Huskies only home loss in conference play came by just two points versus Oregon. They beat Gonzaga in a home game outside of the PAC12. Colorado has lost all four road games so far this season, and has dropped four of their last five at Washington. This appears to be a case of the wrong team favored.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on Under.

Of the 362 Division 1 teams in the country, Davidson ranks 360th in pace of play averaging just 63.8 possessions per game. The Wildcats host Richmond Saturday, and these teams have failed to reach the total in back to back games the last two seasons. Richmond also plays at a slow pace, ranking 282nd nationally averaging 68.8 possessions per game. The Spiders are coming off a 63-61 win at Duquesne, and their previous road game was 58-56 win at Loyala Chicago. I expect both teams to score fewer than 70 points here

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on NMSU.

While Western Kentucky comes into this game with a record of 13-4, their strength of schedule is questionable. According to TeamRank.com they rank 215th nationally in strength of schedule. New Mexico State on the hand has played New Mexico twice, losing by a bucket at home. They lost to Kentucky, Fresno State, Tulsa and Louisville. The Aggies are 7-1 at home, and they have covered the spread in five straight home games. Western Kentucky is 4-2 on the road so far, but they were 4-9 on the road last year. Give me the home team at a pickem!

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on MINN.

The Gophers finished dead last in the BIG10 last year, but they are a far better team this season. Iowa on the other hand appears to be trending in the opposite direction. Coming off a big home win over Nebraska, this looks like a let down spot for a Hawkeyes team that is 0-4 on the road. The Gophers are 11-1 at home, and they are looking to bounce back from a road loss at Indiana. Minnesota are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games, and they have covered in nine straight home games.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on LA-Tech.

The Flames haven't received a warm welcome to Conference USA, losing their first two games in conference play to Jacksonville State and Western Kentucky. A road game at LA-Tech isn't a great spot to get back on track. The Bulldogs are 8-0 at home, and the Flames have failed to cover in four of their last five road games. The Bulldogs have an impressive resume, and what stands out perhaps more than their wins is that their losses in tough road games were all close games against mostly tough opponents. New Mexico State, Colorado State and Grand Canyon for example. Their only conference loss came by four points at first place Sam Houston.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on GT.

The Yellow Jackets might not be the best team in the ACC, but they are one of the best teams when they play on their home court. This is evidenced by wins over Mississippi State and Duke, both ranked in the Top 25. Boston College has road wins over The Citadel and Vanderbilt, but this is a huge step up in class. History favors the home team, as Georgia Tech has won five straight versus the Eagles, covering the spread in all five of those games.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on Under.

Illinois comes in averaging over 82 points per game, but those numbers came in non-conference play. It's time to buckle up for the BIG10, and their one conference game came against Rutgers, winning by a score of 76-58. Terrance Shannon Jr. scored 23 points in that game, and he leads the team in scoring averaging almost 22 points per game. Nobody else averages 12 points per game, and Shannon is their best three-point shooter hitting better than 40 percent from beyond the arc. The kid is a great player, but he's got himself in some trouble with the law and he will be away from the team for the foreseeable future. The Wildcats lost by a score of 66-62 at Illinois in the most recent meeting between the two teams. The under is 6-0 in the last six meetings, and the total for tonight's game is higher than it was in the last four meetings.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on YSU.

The Oakland Grizzlies travel to Youngstown coming off three straight losses on the road. They lost both meetings versus the Penguins last year, and they also lost at Youngstown in the 2022 season. The Penguins are 7-0 at home, and they are 2-0 in the Horizon. They crushed the Cleveland State Vikings by 25 points, and the Grizzlies last game was a loss at Cleveland State. This could be a blowout win for the home team.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on MARSH.

The Thundering Herd finished 2nd in the Sun Belt last season, tied with the Ragin Cajuns. They were 15-2 at home, and they have a pair of senior starters back from that team. The Ragin Cajuns have lost four of five one the road so far this season, and they were just 7-7 in road games last year. Louisiana-Lafayette are 1-7 SU in their last eight games on the road, while Marshall has won 12 of their last 16 in the Sun Belt.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on Utah.

Both these teams are 9-2, but Utah has more impressive wins. They won at St. Mary's and they beat #14 ranked BYU. The Utes are 6-0 at home, and they won by 14 in the most recent meeting versus WSU last January. Utah is 8-2 straight up, and 7-3 ATS in the last 10 versus the Cougars. This will be the first true road game for Washington State, and they were 4-8 on the road last year.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on EWU.

So the 4-7 Eagles are a home favorite here against the 9-3 Vikings. I think this line is a product of these teams overall records, despite the fact that strength of schedule tells us that Eastern Washington is much better than their record would indicate. The Eagles losses came against five teams from the PAC12, and road games versus teams from the BIG12 and SEC. They have won 13 of their last 14 home games, and they have won seven straight head to head versus the Vikings. They are 5-0 ATS in the last five head to head meetings

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on DENVER.

The defending champs are 11-2 at home, and the Joker is still in a class of his own. While the mainstream media refuses to five Nikola Jokic the credit he is due, he continues to dominate everything in his path. The Warriors five game winning streak only puts them a game above .500, and four of those five wins came at home. Now they are on the road, and Steph Curry averages over 30 points per game at home, and just over 26 points per game on the road. The Warriors have lost four straight in this series, and they are 1-5 SU and 1-5 ATS in the last six meetings.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on Over.

This number looks a little too low. Perhaps the bookmakers haven't fully adjusted for the fact that Georgia Tech is playing at a far faster pace than they did last year. Their average of over 72 possessions per game ranks among the faster teams in the country. Nevada is right behind them averaging just short of 72 points per game. Nevada comes in averaging over 79 points per game. The Yellow Jackets have averaged over 72 points per game, and they have allowed 71 points per game.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on UNC.

I will stop short of calling the Oklahoma Sooners a fraud, but I will caution not to read too much into a perfect 10-0 record. Keep in mind strength of schedule, and while they have beaten four Power Five teams, but Iowa, USC, Providence and Arkansas have all underachieved so far. The Tar Heels come off back to back losses to Kentucky and Connecticut, both of those teams look like legit contenders. I think Oklahoma gets exposed here.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on Under.

Last year Seton Hall beat Rutgers in New Jersey by a score of 45-43, and while that game may look like anomaly, low scoring games have been the norm when these teams play. The under is 7-1 in the last eight head to head meetings. Rutgers has gone under in seven of their last eight overall, and the under is 5-1 in their last six road games. The Pirates are 5-0 at home, and they have held opponents to 62 points per game. This one should be a defensive battle.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on NW.

The Wildcats finished 2nd in the BIG10 last year, and they were 13-5 at home. Northwesters is bringing back leading scorer Boo Buie, along with two more senior starters. Senior guard Ryan Langborg transferred from Princeton, giving them a starting lineup loaded with four seniors. The Boilermakers won two of three meetings last year, but lost the last meeting at Northwestern by a score of 64-58. These teams have a history of playing close games, as only one of the last five head to head meetings has been decided by more than six points. Purdue comes in ranked #1 in the country, and history tells us that can often be the kiss of death. Purdue has failed to cover in five straight road games, while the Wildcats have covered in seven of their last eight at home.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on OKC.

No Curry and no Draymond for the Warriors, and they have lost four straight and five of six. It's fair to say that these are teams trending in opposite directions, as Oklahoma City has won four of five. The Dubs have lost four of their five home games, and this team just looks like a mess at the moment. I like the Thunder to win big here at the Chase Center.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on SJU.

Michigan lost leading scorer Hunter Dickenson to Kansas, and they have to replace their top three scorers from a team that finished 8th in the BIG10 last year. You would expect a blue blood like Michigan to make a big splash in the transfer portal, but that doesn't seem to be the case. Olivier Nkamhoua averaged just over 10-point per game with Tennessee last year, and Nimari Burnett was a backup last year at Alabama and the previous year at Texas Tech. It would appear that the Wolverines are asking role players to step up and fill the void in the starting lineup. St. Johns returns senior center Joel Soriano, who was the leading scorer averaging 15.2 points per game last year. They have surrounded him with several senior transfers who were stars on their respective teams last year. Jordan Dingle (G) averaged 23.4 points per game with PENN last year, and Daniss Jenkins came with coach Pitino from Iona. Iona went a combined 64-22 overall and 40-9 in regular-season conference play under Rick Pitino.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on TENN.

The Vols are coming off a 25 win season, finishing 5th in the SEC and ranked #20 in the country. They bring back three starters, including senior guard Santiago Vescovi who lead the team in scoring last year. The Badgers finished 12th in the BIG10, unranked with a losing record in conference play. Wisconsin struggled in close games last year, and they lost four of their last six in Madison. They may find themselves overmatched here.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on SAC.

Lets not overreact to the Warriors losing at home on Opening Night to a shorthanded Phoenix team. Maybe they missed Draymond Green, maybe Chris Paul needs more time to work his win into a new team. Regardless of any of that, following up with a road game at Sacramento is a tough spot. The younger Kings pushed them to the brink in last year's playoffs, and while the Dubs are a year older, the Kings are only getting better. Sacramento was the highest scoring team in the NBA last year, and they have picked up right where they left off by scoring 130 in their season opening win over Utah. The addition of Euro League MVP Sasha Vuzenkov isn't going to hurt.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on Under.

Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals was a high scoring affair, and because of that the total for Game 2 is five points higher than it was in Game 1. The series opener saw Denver dominate the first half, but the Lakers made adjustments that allowed them to come storming back. When they stuck Rui Hachimura on the Joker, the REAL MVP was held to just 3 points on 0-of-2 shooting in the 4th quarter. Don't be surprised if things tighten up in Game 2, and keep in mind that both teams shot better than 54 percent from the field when both teams are averaging under 50 percent in these playoffs.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on BOS.

The Celtics have all the momentum heading into Game 7 at the Garden. Boston is 26-9 all time in Game 7s, and the Sixers are 6-11 all time in Game 7s. Home teams have won 79 percent of Game 7s all time in the NBA Playoffs. The Celtics are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 home games, and they have covered in eight of their last 11 versus Philadelphia. The home team might get the calls here, and the Sixers could end up on the wrong side of a one-sided Game 7.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on MIA ML. 

The Knicks won Game 2, but their performance was far from convincing. The expression on Jimmy Butler's face said it all, he knows he's going back to Miami and winning Game 3. Butler scored 56 in Game 4 at home, and then scored 42 in the series clinching win in Milwaukee in Game 5. Even without Jimmy Buckets, the Knicks just barely won Game 2 at the Garden. Miami has the most valuable player in this series, and they are well coached. I think the coaching matchup is a mismatch in favor of the Heat. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on Under. 

So the first half total has gone under in five of six games, and now the bookmakers have made the adjustment. I don't think they have adjusted enough for a Game 7 though. There have been 15 Game 7s played in the NBA since 2018. The combined total fell short of 200 in 12 of those games. Only one of those 15 games went over the listed total for this game, when the Clippers beat the Mavericks 126-111 in 2021. We saw 109 points scored in the first half of Game 6, and I can't see them scoring more than that here in a Game 7. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on Under.

So when it was announced that De'Aaron Fox was going to play despite a broken finger, the Warriors went from -4 in Game 5 to -1.5. I said that he could be a liability if he wasn't at 100 percent. He appeared to play pretty well, but his 24 points was a series low. He shot a series low 36 percent from the field and committed a series high six turnovers. I don't see it getting any better for the Kings here in Game 6. The Warriors won four series in last year's playoffs, and in their four series clinching wins the total went under in all four. The average combined total in those games was 207.5. I'll take the Dubs to win and the game to go under the total.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on Under.

I bet the under in Game 1 of this series, and I said the following before the game: “Minnesota is coming off back to back unders in both of their play-in games, and they held the Thunder to just 95 points in their last game. The Nuggets own an elite defense, and they are particularly good at home. The under is 11-2 in the Nuggets last 13 overall, and they have failed to reach the total in five straight home games.” We have since seen Game 2 and Game 3 go over the total, but with the Wolves facing elimination in Game 4, I expect to see more of a defensive battle here. The under is 12-4 in Nuggets last 16 overall, and the Timberwolves have gone under in 12 of their last 17 home games. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on MEM.

The Grizzlies were 35-6 on their home court, giving them the best home record in the NBA. The home team has won all three meetings between these teams this year, and Memphis won at home by a score of 121-109 in February. The Lakers looked good in the second half after trailing 60-49 at halftime. If they play like that here in Memphis, they will have a much tougher time coming back in the second half. Watching them blow a three point lead with just 1 second on the clock was a little alarming. This looks like a let down spot for the Lakers, and I like Memphis to win big.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on Under.

The Aztecs streak of unders ended in a 72-71 win over FAU in the Final Four. Both teams shot out the lights from beyond the arc, with the Owls hitting over 40 percent and San Diego State better than 50 percent. I won't bank on seeing that again in the Final. The under is 17-5 in the Aztecs last 22 overall, and the under is 27-9 in their last 36 neutral site games. UCONN also plays a tough defensive brand of basketball, and the under is 7-2 in the Huskies last nine overall.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the PELICANS.

This is the second game of a back to back for the Clippers, and Kawhi Leonard played last night. We will see if any Clippers will be rested for load management tonight. The Pelicans have won six of their last seven overall, and they are 8-1 straight up in their last nine versus the Clippers. The Clippers are 6-22 ATS in the last 28 meetings in New Orleans.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on SDSU.

The Aztecs will be just a slight favorite here against the Florida Atlantic Owls, and San Diego State has been dominant defensively in the tournament so far. They have held three of their four opponents to fewer than 60 points, with the exception being a 71-64 win over Alabama. The Aztecs have gone under in 12 straight overall, and we expect another defensive battle here. The Owls have escaped from some close calls, but I think their luck runs out here in the Final Four.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on Under.

The Aztecs will be just a slight favorite here against the Florida Atlantic Owls, and San Diego State has been dominant defensively in the tournament so far. They have held three of their four opponents to fewer than 60 points, with the exception being a 71-64 win over Alabama. The Aztecs have gone under in 12 straight overall, and we expect another defensive battle here. The Owls have escaped from some close calls, but I think their luck runs out here in the Final Four.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on Under.

Some might be shocked to see these teams here in the Elite-8, but I actually have a pending bet on Kansas State at 10-1 to win the East Region. This was one of three longshots I gave out on my NCAA Tournament preview show on Youtube. I am a little concerned that their starting PG rolled his ankle against Michigan State, even though he played a team high 43 minutes. The Owls have been dominant defensively in the tournament, and if Nowell is not 100 percent it will be tough for the Wildcats to run up the score. The under is 20-8-1 in the Owls last 29 neutral site games, and they have failed to reach the total in five of their last six overall. The Wildcats have gone over in five straight NCAA Tournament games, but two of their three games at this tournament saw less than 144.5 combined points.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on Under.

The under is still hitting at close to 70 percent in the tournament so far, and history suggests that the low scores will continue in the Sweet-16. Last year only six of the eight games reached 140 combined points. Xavier had their way with Pitt in the first half on Sunday, but the pace was slowed in the second half. I expect Texas to have more answers for the Musketeers and I don't think it's going to take them until halftime to figure it out. The under is 7-3-1 in the Musketeers last 11 NCAA Tournament games, and the Longhorns have gone under in seven straight overall.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on Under.

Tennessee is the best defensive team in the country, ranking #1 nationally in both opponent field goal percentage as well as three-point field goal percentage. It should come as no surprise that the under is 9-4-1 in the Volunteers last 14 overall. Florida Atlantic has been solid on defense as well, and the under is 5-1 in the Owls last six neutral site games. I think FAU will score fewer than 60 points here, and the Vols are only averaging 66 points per game in their last five overall.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on Vandy.

I picked Vandy at 28-1 to win the N.I.T. before the tournament started, and I bet on them in their opening game against Yale. Here is what I said before they beat the Bulldogs: "The Commodores have been one of the hottest teams in the country at the end of the season. Prior to losing to Texas A&M in the SEC Tournament Semifinal, they had won 10 of 11 with wins over Kentucky (twice), Tennessee and Auburn. They host the Yale Bulldogs, and Vandy is 5-0 ATS in their last five home games. The Commodores are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games following an ATS loss." They needed a miracle to get past Michigan, and of course to me that felt like destiny is on their side.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under.

If you check out ESPN you will see stories about Princeton and FDU. The media loves to hype up the upsets, meanwhile favorites are 29-11 straight up so far in the tournament. Lost in all the talk over underdogs and upsets is the fact that unders have been hitting at a 75 percent clip in the tournament so far. It wouldn't appear that the markets have adjusted for this, as the total for this game is over 145. There were eight games at the NCAA Tournament yesterday, and not a single one of them saw a combined 145 points. We have seen 22 of 24 games go under that number the last two days at the tournament. The under is 14-5 in the Kentucky Wildcats last 19 NCAA Tournament games.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on SJST.

I don't think the markets have caught up to this San Jose State team. The Spartans are perennial bottom feeders in the Mountain West, but this year they finished top five in the conference this year, two games ahead of New Mexico and just two games back of Nevada. Both these teams are coming off a loss, but the Spartans are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games following a straight up loss. The Screaming Eagles are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up loss. I have to think this is a mismatch.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on Duke.

By now, everyone knows that #5 seeds are vulnerable to upsets in the first round versus #12 seeds. Maybe that's how ACC Tournament champions Duke open as a single digit favorite and get bet down to -6.5 or -6. I believe the perception doesn't line up with the reality here at the NCAA Tournament. When a double digit seed wins outright it makes headlines, but the other 90 percent of the time it doesn't get talked about. Duke comes in on a nine game winning streak, and the average margin of victory in those games is well over 10 points per game. Oral Roberts has failed to cover in 12 of their last 15 versus teams with a winning percentage of .600 or better. The Golden Eagles covered just twice in their last nine games overall.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on Memphis.

The Cougars have won seven of the last 10 meetings straight up, but they have failed to cover in all but one of those games. These teams played just a week ago, and Memphis lost by two with Houston hitting the winner at the buzzer. Leading scorer Marcus played 37 minutes in that game, but he missed yesterday's game against Cincinnati. He will either miss this game, or he will be limited by a groin injury. With Houston's spot in the tournament secure, I see no reason for them to rush him back. The Cougars are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall, and they have failed to cover in five of their last six coming off a win. I'll take the points, and sprinkle a little on the moneyline.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on Under.

The Aggies have won seven of eight overall, and prior to yesterday's win over Vanderbilt they had played seven straight games with neither team scoring 70 points. One game during that span was a 67-61 home win over Alabama in the final game of the regular season. Three of the last four head to head meetings between these teams have gone under the total, and Alabama has failed to read the total in nine of their last 11 versus a team with a winning record. The Aggies have gone under in 10 of their last 13 versus a team with a winning record. This game should look a lot like the last meeting which was played just last week.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on Michigan.

The Wolverines finished the season winning three of their final five games, and one of those wins was a 59-48 win at Rutgers. They covered the spread in all five of those games, losing by a combined six points in road games at Illinois and Indiana. Rutgers won just two of their last five games of the season, and those wins came by a combined four points at Penn State and Wisconsin. The Scarlet Knights come in averaging 57.8 points per game in their last five, exactly 20 points fewer than Michigan has averaged during that span. The Wolverines are 36-15-2 ATS in their last 53 neutral site games. The Scarlet Knights are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on SAC.

Both these teams are playing the second game of a back to back, but the Kings won at home 128-127 versus the Clippers last night, and they don't have to travel. Minnesota played in LA, and will be playing a fourth straight game on the road tonight. The Kings are a young team that might not mind playing on back to back nights, as evidenced by the fact that they are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games playing the second of a back to back. Minnesota has failed to cover in five of their last six coming off a win.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on Auburn.

The Vols are looking forward to the NCAA Tournament, while the Tigers might need a win here today if they want to get in. Auburn is coming off an overtime loss at Alabama, but they are much stronger on their home floor than they are on the road. The Tigers are 13-2 at home, while the Vols are just 4-5 on the road. Auburn has won five of the last seven head to head meetings, and all three home meetings since 2018. The Tigers are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games following a straight up loss, while the Vols have failed to cover in four straight road games.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on GONZ.

The Bulldogs might not be as good as they have been in previous seasons, but I believe they are still top dog in the WCC. I spoke on TV in a live interview with Dan Alexander a few weeks ago, saying that Gonzaga at 4-1 to win the conference was a good bet. They need to win tonight, and move ahead of SMC in NET rating (there was some confusion between NET and RPI). So SMC won at home in OT in the previous meeting a few weeks back, but that was just their second win in the last 10 head to head meetings. Both of those wins have come at home, and their losses at Gonzaga have come by an average margin of 17 points, and all six of those games were decided by double digits. Even in the OT win at home, SMC scored the first bucket, but Gonzaga too over shortly after and never trailed again in regulation. The visitor has failed to cover in each of the last eight meetings in this series.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on Canisius.

The Golden Griffins have won eight of their last 10 versus MAAC rivals St. Peters, and even last year's talented squad that went to the Sweet Sixteen lost at Canisius. This Peacocks team has taken a major step back, going 3-11 ATS in their last 14 road games. The home team has covered in five of the last six head to head meetings, and when you look at the recent play from the Griffins it inspires plenty of confidence. Prior to a one point loss on the road at Mount St. Mary's, they won outright over Rider and Quinnipiac.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on Drexel.

The Dragons host Northeastern in their final home game of the season, and they have owned this team in recent years. Drexel defeated the Huskies by 21 points on the road earlier this season. They won at home versus Northeastern by 16 points last February. They are 4-0 SU and 4-0 ATS in this series over the last three seasons. The Huskies are coming off a home win over Conference bottom feeder CWM, and they are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games following an ATS win. Drexel lost it's last game at Hampton, and they are 22-7 ATS in their last 29 games following a straight up loss.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on Fordham.

The Rams are just 2.5 games out of first place in the A-10, and they come into Loyola as winners of eight of their last 10. During that span they have road wins at Duquesne, La Salle, Davidson and St. Bonaventure. They are a small favorite here on the road versus the last place team in the conference, and Loyola has lost it's last two home games by double digits. The Ramblers are 2-6 ATS in their last eight home games, and have failed to cover in 19 of their last 27 overall. The Rams are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games versus a team with a losing home record.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on Vanderbilt.

Vandy comes in red hot, winning their last five games. They are now in a position to possibly make the NCAA Tournament, but they likely need to run the table. It starts tonight at LSU, a team that has lost 13 straight games. Vandy has won back to back road games at Florida and South Carolina, and they are 37-17-1 ATS in their last 55 road games. The Tigers are 6-20 ATS in their last 26 home games and they have failed to cover in 16 of their last 21 overall. Two teams trending in opposite directions, I know who I'll put my money on.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on K-State.

The Wildcats have lost four of their five, but three of those losses came on the road. They host Iowa State, and the Cyclones have lost five in a row on the road. Kansas State is 13-1 SU at home, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 15 points per game. They are allowing just 60 points per game at home, while the Cyclones are scoring less than 65 points per game on the road. The Wildcats are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games, while the Cyclones have failed to cover in six of their last eight overall.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on UGA.

The Georgia Bulldogs are 12-2 at home, and they host an LSU team that is 0-6 on the road. Georgia is coming off a home win over Kentucky, and some might say that sets them up for a let down here. I think at this point in the season a home game against a team with a 1-11 conference record is more of an opportunity than a spot we would see a let down. The Tigers are 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 games overall, and they are coming off a 74-62 home loss to Texas A&M. They are 0-7 ATS in their last seven coming off a double digit home loss. The home team has covered in four of the last five head to head meetings.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on TOR.

The Grizzlies are struggling, and they come into tonight's home game versus the Raptors with two starters out, and two more questionable. Toronto has been horrible this season, dealing with their own injuries. The Raptors are 3-3 SU on their current road trip, and one of those losses was a game decided by three points in Utah. History favors the Raptors here in Memphis, where they have covered in five straight. They are 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings overall. A shorthanded Grizzlies team has no business being asked to cover a number like this here.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on DEN.

The Hawks are on a roll, coming off back to back wins over the Suns and the Jazz. They take on the Denver Nuggets tonight, and playing the second game of a back to back at altitude is a tough spot. Denver is 10-3 ATS in their last 13 home games, 24-4 overall at home, and 14-6 ATS in their last 20 overall. Nikola Jokic will likely not play both games in an upcoming back to back, but it makes more sense to rest him on the back end in Minnesota on Sunday. The Hawks might want to rest some of their starters here in Denver.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on PHX.

Despite all the injuries and a poor start to the season, the Suns have won six of their last seven, and they are 19-8 at home this season. Both DeAndre Ayton and Chris Paul are back in the lineup, and Ayton is coming off a double-double with 22 points and 13 boards in a win over the Raptors. They host the Atlanta Hawks, and the home team has won nine of the last 10 meetings in this series. The Hawks are 1-5-1 ATS in the last seven meetings in Phoenix. Tre Young is expected to return after missing the last game with sore ankle, but it might not be enough to get a win over a team that has won 51 of it's last 69 home games.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on Oklahoma.

Some might suggest that the Sooners are primed for a let down after upsetting Alabama in a 24-point blowout win at home in their last game. I will push back on that, as it's a rivalry game in a revenge spot after they got blown out in Stillwater earlier in the year. The home team has won straight up in eight of the last 10 meetings, and the Cowboys are 2-5 straight up on the road. The home team is 21-8-1 in the last 30 head to head meetings. Oklahoma State struggles to score on the road (averaging 67.3 points per game) and I don't think they can score enough to keep up to the Sooners here.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on Phoenix.

The Suns have been decimated by injuries, but that hasn't prevented them from winning 18 of 25 home games. They host the Dallas Mavericks tonight, and Dallas has lost 15 of 23 road games. The home team is 8-1 SU in the last nine head to head meetings. Chris Paul is back, and he had 11 assists in a blowout win over Charlotte on Tuesday. The Mavs will not have 2nd leading scorer and 2nd leading rebounder Christian Wood. The Suns are expecting their big man back on Thursday. DeAndre Ayton leads the Suns in scoring and rebounding. The Mavericks are 8-22 ATS in their last 30 road games, and they are 17-35-2 ATS in their last 54 games overall.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on Texas A&M.

The Aggies are undefeated in the SEC, and they are 8-1 at home. They have already beat the Gators in Florida this season, and they won both meetings versus Florida last season. The Gators are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games versus a team with a winning home record. The Aggies are 22-8 ATS in their last 30 games overall, and they are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 versus Florida. The Aggies have outscored opponents by an average margin of 19 points at home.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on EWU.

The Eagles are undefeated in conference play, and they look good as just a small home favorite here tonight. The Eagles are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall, and they have covered the spread in five of their last six home games. The Grizzlies are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 road games, and they are just 3-3 in the Big Sky. One of their losses came on the road at Northern Arizona, a team with a 5-14 record. The Eagles are averaging 92 points per game at home this season.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on Clemson.

The Tigers are sitting in first place in the ACC, and they are undefeated at home (9-0). The home team is 8-2 straight up in the last 10 head to head meetings, and this year's Blue Devils team is not your typical Duke squad we saw under Coach K. Duke has lost two of three road games so far, failing to cover in all three. They lost at Wake Forest by double digits, and Clemson beat that same Demon Deacons team by 20 points. Starting PG Jeremy Roach, who leads the Blue Devils in assists is expected to miss this game with a foot injury. I'll take the Tigers to get the "W" at home.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on KENT.

The Golden Flashes have won 19 of their last 23 conference games, and they are undefeated in the MAC so far this season. They have three seniors in their starting five, including their two leading scorers Sincere Carry and Malique Jacobs. This is the best team in the MAC, and I wouldn't be expecting them to lose many games this season whether at home or on the road. The Golden Flashes are 22-7-1 ATS in their last 30 games overall. The Bobcats are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up win.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on TEXAS TECH.

The Red Raiders will be shorthanded here at Iowa State, and they are already 0-3 in conference play. History suggests that this game will be close, and I think the bookmakers are overreacting to a few injuries here. Daniel Batcho and Pop Isaacs didn't play in an overtime loss to Oklahoma, but the Cyclones leading rebounder Aljaz Kunc has also missed the last three weeks. Texas Tech has won eight of the last 10 in this series, and both losses came in games decided by four points. The Cyclones are 3-0 in the BIG12, but two of those wins came in games decided by three points or less. I'll take the points!

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on Iowa.

The Hawkeyes are reeling after losing three straight, but a home game against BIG10 rivals Indiana looks like a good spot to get back on track. The home team is 5-1 straight up in the last six meetings between these teams. The Hoosiers have failed to cover in four straight overall, and four of five on the road. They have been playing without two starters, leading scorer Trayce-Jackson-Davis and PG Xavier Johnson. The Hawkeyes are 6-2 ATS in their last eight home games, and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 off a loss.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on Pelicans.

The Pelicans are tied for first place in the Western Conference, and they are in a revenge spot in the second game of a two game series in Utah. The Pelicans are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games following a straight up loss. The Jazz are just 6-11 in their last 17 overall, and they were playing over their heads at the beginning of the year. Zion only played 26 minutes in the first game in Utah, expect him to play more minutes and be a more dominant force here in the rematch.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on Arizona.

The Wildcats are 7-1, with a pair of wins over ranked teams. They beat San Diego State and Creighton before losing their first true road game at Utah. They host the #14 ranked Indiana Hoosiers in a neutral site game tonight, but Las Vegas might feel like a second home to the Wildcats. This Arizona team was 11-1 in non-conference games last year, beating #4 Michigan right here in Las Vegas. Indiana might struggle to match the scoring prowess of a Wildcats team that is averaging 91.5 points per game.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Raptors.

Everyone in the NBA knows it's not easy to win in Toronto, and yet the Celtics come into Monday's game as favorites. This is a tough spot for Boston, playing the second game of a back to back off a big win in Brooklyn. Jalen Brown played 40 minutes last night, and Jason Tatum logged 37 minutes. Marcus Smart is out with an injury, and the Raptors are back to full strength. Toronto should get the W here in this spot.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on K-State.

The Wildcats are coming off their first loss of the season, on the road at Butler. A home game against Wichita State looks like a good spot to get back on track. Wichita State had three players score in double digits last season, and all three are gone. One went to the NBA (Tyson Ettienne) and two transfered. The Wildcats have three senior starters averaging in double digits, and this gives them a huge edge in experience. Kansas State has won both their home games by double digits, and the Shockers are likely to be overmatched here in Manhattan.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on UCONN.

The #20 Huskies are 7-0, and they beat #18 Alabama by 15 points on Friday at the Phil Knight Invitational. They face an unranked Iowa State team that just upset #1 North Carolina, and this could be a let down spot for the Cyclones. Iowa State made 9-of-20 three-point attempts in the upset win over the Tar Heels. I don't like their chances of hitting 45 percent from beyond the arc here in this game. The Huskies have the experience, the shooters, and the coaching to take down this scrappy Cyclones team.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on NCSTATE.

The Butler Bulldogs didn't get a lot of returning talent from last year, and they did not look good in their first game against a ranked team. They scored 45 points on 32 percent shooting in a loss to Tennessee a few days ago. The Wolfpack have more experience, and that may be what allowed them to hang with #3 ranked Kansas. NC State comes in averaging over 80 points per game, while the Bulldogs average just slightly above the national average (71.5). The Wolfpack currently rank 1st in the ACC in scoring, and near the top in FG percentage, FT percentage and three-point shooting.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under.

George Mason lost 66-62 to Belmont at the Paradise Jam at the UVI Sports & Fitness Center in the Virgin Islands on Saturday. In fact all four games at this venue over the weekend were low scoring, falling well short of 140 combined points. Neither of these two teams have been scoring regardless of the venue, Buffalo comes in averaging 69 points per game while the Patriots are averaging just 65 points per game. The Patriots are strong defensively, which might be why they have gone under in five of their last six games. This number looks way too high.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on Baylor.

The Cavs had four games against Top 25 teams last year, and they lost three of those four games by double digits. They do not match up well with a #5 ranked Baylor team that has the edge in experience, returning production and overall talent. The Bears are 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 neutral site games. The Cavaliers are 2-6 ATS in their last eight neutral site games, and they are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.

GL,

Jesse Schule