Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-17-19 | Patriots v. Eagles +4 | 17-10 | Loss | -115 | 104 h 38 m | Show | |
New England before their bye week showed some chinks in their armour by getting blown out by the Baltimore Ravens. Now the public believes that the mighty Pats will bounce back and impose their will on the Eagles via the arm of NFL senior citizen Tom Brady. Personally Im one of these guys, that believes Father Time is Undefeated and that the future HOF QB Tom Brady will soon begin to regress as will his team. I also believe this line offers value on a what my power ranking suggest is an up trending Eagles side on two game win streak. Note: The Eagles are 14-1 SU L/15, including 5-0 ATS as a dog with rest in non-division games. PHILADELPHIA is 9-1 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 75% or better ) over the last 3 seasons. PHILADELPHIA is 16-4 ATS vs. top tier offensive teams - scoring 29 or more points/game in the second half of the season. Pederson is 11-2 ATS in home games after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread as the coach of PHILADELPHIA. NFL Home teams (PHILADELPHIA) - a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team in the second half of the season are long term profitable side propositions going 187-121 ATS L/36 seasons for a 61% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Philadelphia Eagles to cover |
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11-17-19 | Saints v. Bucs +6 | 34-17 | Loss | -115 | 99 h 27 m | Show | |
QB Drew Brees was sacked six times in a loss at home loss to the Atlanta Falcons. Im now sure the pundits and obviously the lines-makers believe the mighty Saints will now bounce back and cover a 6 point road spread here in Tampa Bay. However, Im not sold on the Saints in this spot, and have noticed the franchise is just 14-27-2 ATS as a favorite in games when coming off a home loss and Payton is 2-9 ATS off an upset loss by 14 points or more as a favorite as the coach of NEW ORLEANS. It must also be noted that TB has revenge on board for a 31-24 loss they suffered to the Saints on he road earlier this season. TAMPA BAY is 18-7 ATS L/25 in home games revenging a loss where opponent scored 28 or more points. Also From a league wide trends perspective : NFL Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (TAMPA BAY) - revenging a same season loss against opponent, off a home win are 37-14 ATS L/10 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. (TB beat Arizona last week at home by a 30-27 count) Arians is 12-2 ATS as a home underdog of 7 points or less in all games he has coached in his career. Play on the Tampa Bay Bucs to cover |
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11-17-19 | Jets v. Redskins -1 | 34-17 | Loss | -110 | 89 h 5 m | Show | |
A battle between two NFL bottom feeders who are in last place in their respective NFL divisions. go head to head this Sunday. I know there is recency bias here as the Jets are off a win vs Giants last time out and the Skins just continue to struggle. However, having a bye week will give their young QB Dwayne Haskins some more time to get acclimated under center and to use the offence in the best way possible to get positive results. With that said, Im betting on the Skins here , and fading the a Jets side that are improbable back to back winners and just 1-9 SU and 0-9-1 ATS L/10 against opposition off a bye week and 2-9 ATS in back to back NFC tilts. Play on the Washington Redskins to cover |
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11-17-19 | Falcons v. Panthers UNDER 49.5 | 29-3 | Win | 100 | 73 h 23 m | Show | |
Atlanta is off a top tier defensive effort last time out holding the Saints on the road to only 310 total yards in a surprisingly dominate 26-9 road win. Now in a divisional battle they take on a Carolina team that they have a history of playing low scoring grinding games against with 9 of the L/11 staying UNDER the total. with a combined average of 39.5 ppg game going on the board. At this time of the season, from a historical stand point it must be noted that the UNDER in NFL division games when each team has played 10 games has cashed 21 of the L/24 times since 2008 and has cashed 10 straight times overall when the total is 44 points or more. .It must also be note that the Panthers have gone under in 26 of their L/30 games dating back to 1999 as division home chalk of 10 points or less. ATLANTA is 10-1 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 37.8 ppg scored.ATLANTA is 8-0 UNDER versus good rushing teams - averaging 130 or more rushing yards/game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 35.9 ppg scored. NFL team where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (ATLANTA) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 0.4 YPP) after 8+ games are 36-6 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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11-14-19 | Steelers v. Browns -2.5 | 7-21 | Win | 100 | 35 h 13 m | Show | |
The Steelers have shown their resiliency by winning four games in a row and five of their past six, with back QBs in the lineup. However, this week , they 're main mode of moving the chains starting running back James Conner and rookie Benny Snell are banged up and less than 100% if they play. If QB Mason Rudolph has to go the air more often , because of a lack of ground game he will bump into a up trending Cleveland secondary that must be respected. Meanwhile, I look for a Browns team coming into this with momentum after a late TD win last time out, to come right at the Steelers run D that is ranked 16th in the league behind the legs of Kareem Hunt and Nick Chubb and do extensive damage . Tomlin is 6-15 ATS in road games after a win by 6 or less points as the coach of PITTSBURGH which was the case in 17-12 win vs the Rams last time out.Tomlin is 9-18 ATS in road games after having won 4 out of their last 5 games as the coach of PITTSBURGH. NFL team (PITTSBURGH) - off an upset win as a home underdog, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team in the second half of the season are 3-23 L/36 seasons for a go against 88% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Cleveland to cover |
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11-11-19 | Seahawks v. 49ers UNDER 47 | 27-24 | Loss | -105 | 107 h 10 m | Show | |
Im betting this divisional rivalry will be a hard fought fairly low scoring battle. I know Seattle has shown itself to have a some problems in the secondary , and that many believe that Jimmy G, can take advantage of them, but with his most dynamic offensive weapon, tight end George Kittle, banged up with a knee issue spreading the field could be an issue. On the other side of the ball, SF has shown issues stopping the run, and Seattle should be out looking to take advantage of this which will keep the clock ticking when the Seahawks have the ball. This above combination will help keep this combined score to the low side of the number. SEATTLE in their L/6 road games where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points over the last 3 season have seen a combined average of 44.2 ppg scored. HC Carroll in 14 road games where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points as the coach of SEATTLE has seen a combined average of 42 ppg going on the score board. Under is 7-2 in Seahawks last 9 Monday games. Under is 12-4 in 49ers last 16 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in San Francisco. SAN FRANCISCO is 20-7 L/27 UNDER in home games versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 6 or more yards/play with a combined average of 40.8 ppg scored. NFL Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (SEATTLE) - after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last five games are 45-19 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors. NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (SAN FRANCISCO) - excellent offensive team (370 or more YPG) against a terrible defense (370 or more YPG) after 8+ games are 26-5 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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11-10-19 | Rams v. Steelers +4 | 12-17 | Win | 100 | 71 h 52 m | Show | |
Ben Rothlisberger was forced to the sidelines earlier this season, with a nasty elbow injury but the Steelers have found a way to jell behind backups Duck Hodges and Mason Rudolph and find themselves in a hunt for a play off spot . It must also be noted that Mike Tomlin is 9-2-3 ATS as a home pup, and also 10-5 SUATS against the NFC West, including 6-1 SUATS a home. Meanwhile, the Rams do not have a great history vs the AFC North going 1-8 SU and 1-7-1 ATS against .500 or better opposition . Steelers as hosts when coming off a win and facing an opponent coming off consecutive wins like the Rams , are 11-0 SUATS versus non-division opposition. NFLFavorites of 3.5 to 10 points (LA RAMS) - excellent offensive team (370 or better YPG) against a team with a poor defense (335 to 370 YPG) are 10-59 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 63% conversion rate for bettors. NFL Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (LA RAMS) - after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite against opponent off a home win are 12-34 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 74% conversion rate for bettors. NFL Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (LA RAMS) - after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 4 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better are 7-27 ATS L/36 seasons for a go against 80% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Pittsburgh Steelers to cover |
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11-10-19 | Falcons +14 v. Saints | 26-9 | Win | 100 | 92 h 2 m | Show | |
This looks like a complete mismatch because of the opposite trajectories each of these teams has taken this season. However, it must be noted that New Orleans as a DD home favorite vs division opponents at home is just 3-12 ATS L/15 and 0-6 ATS versus sub .200 opponents. Meanwhile , the Falcons are 5-1 ATS l in their L/6 as double-digit dogs, as well and are 22-3 ATS in this series when they enter with a win percentage of .625 or less.With that said, lets be brave, take the points on what my projections estimate is a mathematical advantage. NFL Road teams (ATLANTA) - excellent passing team (265 or more PY/G) against a poor passing defense (230-265 PY/G) after 8+ games, after allowing 7 or more passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 25-5 ATS L/10 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors. NF LRoad underdogs or pick (ATLANTA) - after 6 or more consecutive losses, in weeks 10 through 13 are 36-13 ATS L/36 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Atlanta Falcons |
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11-10-19 | Cardinals v. Bucs -4 | 27-30 | Loss | -115 | 78 h 39 m | Show | |
The hard luck Buccaneers are off back to back losses at Seattle and at Tennessee, respectively, the past two weeks both times in OT. If this was a college team , I would bet they would be emotionally drained, but pros are pros for a reason and they react to adversity a lot different than kids. With that said, Im betting on a top tier effort this week from the Bucs here at home vs a Arizona side travelling from west to east and off a hard fought 28-25 loss against the 49ers last week in prime time. Im betting the Cards are the ones with the emotional hangover , and not the Bucs. Note: Im sure HC Bruce Arians has had this game circled for a while against his old team, and will be well prepared. Cardinals are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Cardinals are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games in November. Cardinals are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game. Buccaneers are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. NFL Road teams (ARIZONA) - off 1 or more straight overs against opponent off 6 or more consecutive overs are 5-25 ATS L/36 seasons for a 83% go against conversion rate for bettors. NFL Favorites (TAMPA BAY) - after failing to cover the spread in 4 out of their last 5 games, after the first month of the season are 102-62 L/10 seasons for a 62% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Tampa Bay to cover |
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11-10-19 | Bills v. Browns -2.5 | 16-19 | Win | 100 | 76 h 17 m | Show | |
These are two teams that have polar opposite records, with the Bills registering a 6-2 record while the Browns are at 2-6. However, the truth is the Browns are a talented team with a QB with a big arm in Baker Mayfield are highly under rated . Note: The Browns have played a much tougher schedule than the Bills, their six losses coming against teams that are a combined 35-17, including 8-0 San Francisco, 8-1 New England and 7-2 Seattle. Cleveland’s roster includes 10 starters who are first- or second-round draft picks, either by the Browns or other teams and despite of some big name media clowns on their sidelines(not going to mention names) they are a team that can get things done if pressured like they are right now in their current form making them dangerous and motivated opponents for the Bills this Sunday.Add to that the activation of running back Kareem Hunt from a 8 game suspension and we have ignitor fuel to bet into. Buffalo is over rated , having played the weakest schedules to date, behind the flimsy arm of quarterback Josh Allen who owns the 28th ranked passer rating and a defence that has had its run D exposed of late.The Bills’ six wins this season have come against opponents whose combined record is 9-42. Four wins have come vs. 0-8 Cincinnati, 1-8 Washington, 1-7 Miami and the 1-7 New York Jets. The Bills are 0-15 ATS/SU L/15 on grass vs a non-divisional opponent before playing on the road. BUFFALO is 9-21 ATS in road games after having won 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games since 1992. NFL teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CLEVELAND) - after 4 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers against opponent after a game where they committed no turnovers are 45-15 ATS L/36 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Cleveland Browns to cover |
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11-10-19 | Ravens v. Bengals +10 | 49-13 | Loss | -102 | 75 h 22 m | Show | |
This side investment option is based on a simple premise , that the Ravens after this huge prime time win vs the Patriots last Sunday night will be immensely hungover as they take on Cincinnati this week. Meanwhile, Cincinnati rested and off a bye week and a new QB under center (Ryan Finely) is not as bad as their winless record would indicate, and have shown flashes of being very competitive. The Bengals lost 23-17 at Baltimore earlier this season, and will be primed to pull of an upset in the rematch and extend a positive 9-3 ATS run L/12 in this series. Note: Teams that have defeated a Super Bowl Champ in their L/game, are 7-25 SUATS in division contests going all the way back to 1980. Also froma . team specific trend shows teams that beat the Patriots and then open as a 7+ point favorite in their following tilt are 0-8 ATS dating back 16 seasons. Key injury update: Bengals A.J. Green is expected to make his season debut on Sunday. NFL Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (CINCINNATI) - after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, a struggling team (25%) playing a team with a winning record in the second half of the season are 67-26 ATS L/36 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Cincinnati to cover |
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11-10-19 | Giants v. Jets +3 | 27-34 | Win | 100 | 55 h 37 m | Show | |
Two struggling teams the NY Jets and NY Giants co tenants of their facility will go head to head here this week, in a game I have pegged as a pickem , thus getting points with the underdog Jets is a value play. Taking the Jets is just the lesser of two evils, but from a mathematical standpoint a prudent decision in my opinion in a game that could easily be won with a late FG. NFL team (NY JETS) - after 5 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers against opponent after a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers are 64-28 L/36 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the NY Jets to cover |
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11-07-19 | Chargers -1 v. Raiders | 24-26 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 14 m | Show | |
The Chargers are a team that does not get accolades from the public, and are in some ways homeless and using temporary shelter in LA where no one seems to care about them. So this Chargers team feels more comfortable on the road than when playing hosts . Meanwhile, the future Las Vegas Raiders , are a team that is up trending, and getting alot of respect from the pundits. However, it seems the lines makers are not buying the hype, and have installed the home team in this matchup as essentially a pickem on a short chalk line. It must be noted that Chargers QB Phillip Rivers , has been a ATM machine for his backers when he goes on the road vs division opposition going 27-12-1 ATS , and 16-4 ATS when his team is not favoured by more than 3 points which is the case here this Thursday night. I know Oakland has looked good this season, and are off a impressive win vs the Lions, but it must be noted that the Silver and Black have a long history of failure this series losing 4 straight and 20 of the L/27 meetings SU and if they are off a SU/ATS win and playing at home they are 0-11 ATS . Chargers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Thursday games.Chargers are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games in November.Chargers are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 road games. Chargers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Oakland. Play on the LA Chargers to cover |
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11-04-19 | Cowboys v. Giants +7 | 37-18 | Loss | -115 | 24 h 13 m | Show | |
The Dallas Cowboys have defeated the NY Giants 5 straight times, but NYG QB Daniel Jones was not under center in any of those games. All good and bad things must eventually come to an end. Whether the tide changes or not will soon be foretold. But one thing I am betting on is that the Gmen will make a game of this behind the arm of their young gun Jones: Note: This is the first time Jones has all his skill players healthy and ready to play. WR Sterling Shepard looks ready to return after sitting out two games with his second concussion. TE Evan Engram is healthy. WR Golden Tate has played in four straight after returning from a suspension for using performance-enhancers. Barkley will be playing in his third straight after sitting out three with an ankle injury. DALLAS is 6-16 ATS in road games off a home blowout win by 21 points or more since 1992. Cowboys are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 Monday games. Cowboys are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games in Week 9. Cowboys are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. NFL Road teams (DALLAS) - after beating the spread by more than 21 points in their previous game, in weeks 5 through 9 are 33-77 SU L/36 seasons for a go against 69% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the NY Giants to cover |
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11-03-19 | Patriots v. Ravens +4 | 20-37 | Win | 100 | 109 h 26 m | Show | |
The undefeated New England Patriots actually look vulnerable here according to my power rankings, and matchup algorithms vs rested Baltimore side off a bye week . It must be noted that the Baltimore Ravens rush offence puts up an average of 5.5 YPR, while the Patriots allow 4.6 Yards Per Rush on defense. So what Im expecting tonight is for the hosts to pound the ball down the throat of the Pats and to do extensive damage with this formula, and to come out of this tilt with a cover. New England is just 2-9 ATS L/11 vs rested .500 or better non division opposition . BALTIMORE is 32-17 ATS against AFC East division opponents since 1992. NFL Road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (NEW ENGLAND) - quick starting offensive team - scoring 14+ PPG in the first half, after allowing 14 points or less last game are 9-29 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors. NFL Road favorites (NEW ENGLAND) - dominant team - outscoring opponents by 10 or more points/game, after a win by 10 or more points are 18-50 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 74% conversion rate for bettors. NFL Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (NEW ENGLAND) - excellent offensive team - scoring 27 or more points/game, after allowing 14 points or less in 2 straight games are 7-25 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Baltimore Ravens to cover |
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11-03-19 | Patriots v. Ravens OVER 45 | 20-37 | Win | 100 | 109 h 2 m | Show | |
In the recent past when top tier teams do battle the OVER has hit 10 straight times dating back to last season when the teams involved own .700 or better record on the campaign , and the Total is is 41 or more points. The combined average combined score of these tilts has clicked in at 67.5 points per game! The Ravens have gone over in 5 straight vs NFC East and have gone over in 6 of their L/7 as 3 or more point dogs. Harbaugh is 10-1 OVER vs. dominant ball control teams, 32+ minutes TOP, 21+ FD's per game in the second half of the season as the coach of BALTIMORE with a combined average of 48.3 ppg going on the board. NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (BALTIMORE/NEW ENGLAND) - off 2 or more consecutive unders, in a game involving 2 very good teams - outscoring opponents by 7+ PPG are 39-13 OVER 36 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the OVER |
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11-03-19 | Packers v. Chargers +4 | 11-26 | Win | 100 | 95 h 18 m | Show | |
There is no real home field advantage for the LA Chargers playing here , in Dignity Health Sports Park and there will probably be more Packers fans than Chargers fans here. However, my power rankings suggest we have value in what could best be described as a neutral field environment.The Packers/Chargers are tied for the NFL lead with seven touchdown receptions by running backs and are more evenly matched than most might think. Last week the Chargers beat the Bears, but the organization has had enough of offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt play calling and instead will have their QB coach Shane Steichen call plays this week a guy I think has been undervalued by the Chargers. This week look for QB Philip Rivers who is s second in the league with 202 completions, fourth with 305attempts, third with 2,315 yards and 10th with 66.2 percent accuracy to have a decent Sunday, vs Aaron Rodgers and company.Note: In three career starts against Green Bay, he’s averaged 398 passing yards. I know its hard to bet against the Packers because of recency biases, but Im not going to give a great deal of attention to those numbers today and instead will base my opinion on the mathematics that suggest we have value taking points. NFL Underdogs or pick (LA CHARGERS) - struggling rushing team ( 3.5 YPR) against a poor rushing defense (4.5 or moreYPR) after 8+ games, after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 3 straight games are 26-6 L/36 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the LA Chargers to cover |
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11-03-19 | Browns v. Broncos +4.5 | 19-24 | Win | 100 | 49 h 16 m | Show | |
There is no culture of winning in Cleveland and now thye have to endure bad coaching which just does not bode well for this franchise. All the off seasons moves along with the pundits in the media telling us how great Cleveland was going to be , still has the public believing the hype. I know QB Baker Mayfield has a great arm, but he is no longer taking advantage of weak Big 12 defences, and here against secondaries and defences with a heart beat he's had his issues , and here against a blue collar Broncos D, Im betting those problems persist. I also know Joe Flacco is now lost to the Broncos for the season, and his backup Brandon Allen will start, but Flacco was not playing well and this might actually be a shot in the arm for Denvers struggling offence. Note:Denver defense has held each of their last four opponents to season low or 2nd low yards. Im betting they will be key to us getting the cover. CLEVELAND is 0-8 ATS vs. excellent kickoff return teams, more than 24 yards per return over the last 3 seasons.CLEVELAND is 4-14 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons. I was on the fence , waiting and watching this line, and now that it has moved , thanks to public sentiment Ive changed my my mind and decided to jump in here and take the points. Play on the Denver Broncos to cover |
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11-03-19 | Vikings +2.5 v. Chiefs | 23-26 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 4 m | Show | |
Whether Kansas City QB Patrick Mahomes starts this week or not , he had previous to be injured flashed signs of the dreaded sophomore jinx and in his three appearances prior to that as he completed less than 58% of his passes in those aforementioned tilts. MINNESOTA is 12-4 ATS in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons. NFL team (MINNESOTA) - good team (outgain opp. by 40-100 YPG) against an average team (+/- 40 YPG) after 8+ games, after gaining 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games 40-5 SU L/5 seasons. Minnesota head coach Zimmer has seen his team cash 16 of his L/21 versus AFC opposition , including 6-0 ATS when the Vikings are coming off consecutive wins.Zimmer is also 41-15-2 ATS outside the NFC North and deserves respect as an underdog. Play on the Minnesota Vikings to cover |
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11-03-19 | Bears v. Eagles -4.5 | 14-22 | Win | 100 | 51 h 12 m | Show | |
Last time out the Eagles temporarily saved their season with a win as dogs, and on the flip side their opponents the Bears continue their incompetence, off a loss they should have had against the Chargers last week in a season full of a comedy of errors. Now Chicago Im betting will be feeling downtrodden while the Eagles will feel rejuvenated and ready to perform here at home with momentum on their sides. I honestly have not had a great read on the Eagles this season, but momentum means alot and I'm riding that here today. Bears are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up loss. Bears are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings. PHILADELPHIA is 6-0 ATS off a upset win as an underdog over the last 3 seasons The Bears are 0-13 ATS /SU failing to cover by more than 13 ppg as a road dog after a game in which less than 22 percent of their opponent?s first downs were from third down. Play on the Philadelphia Eagles to cover |
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11-03-19 | Texans -1 v. Jaguars | 26-3 | Win | 100 | 73 h 12 m | Show | |
Wembley Stadium - London, England The Jags D, has been playing well of late but my own QB vs D, power rankings suggest Texans QB Deshaun Watson who has the 5th best QB rating in the league this season (105.7), has the edge. I know this is like the Jags second home after playing 6 games here in England, but the overall matchup projections favour the Texans. The Jaguars are 2-16 SU/ATS as non-conference dogs dating back 7 seasons. NFL Favorites vs. the money line (HOUSTON) - excellent passing team - with a completion pct of 64% or better, after allowing 6.75 or more passing yards/attempt in 4 straight games are 46-5 L/10 seasons for a 90% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Houston to cover |
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10-31-19 | 49ers v. Cardinals +10 | 28-25 | Win | 100 | 61 h 6 m | Show | |
This Thursday night two teams to be perceived the public to be at the opposite end of the performance spectrum do battle. San Francisco is at the head of the NFC West as the remaining undefeated team in the conference after smashing Carolina last week 51-13, while Arizona is below .500 and in last place in the division. However, Arizona may not be as bad as the public might believe, as the Cardinals were riding a three-game winning streak before visiting the New Orleans Saints Sunday and losing 31-9. Recency bias plays into alot of lines in any bet-able sports, and because of this value can be obtained in certain circumstances. Tonight we have one of those situations as my own projections estimate that from a mathematical standpoint that Arizonas chances of covering are in the 55% range, which makes this a very viable investment opportunity. Note: Arizona is 5-0 SU in its last 5 overall games when playing San Francisco and is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against San Francisco. ARIZONA is 25-8 ATS after allowing 7 or more yards/play in their previous game . ARIZONA is 17-4 ATS L/21 vs. very good defensive teams who give up 14 or less points/game . NFL Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (SAN FRANCISCO) - excellent offensive team - scoring 27 or more points/game, after allowing 14 points or less in 2 straight games are 7-25 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors. NFLRoad favorites (SAN FRANCISCO) - dominant team - outscoring opponents by 10 or more points/game, after a win by 10 or more points are 18-50 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 74% conversion rate for bettors. NFL Home teams (ARIZONA) - mistake-free team - committing 0.75 or less turnovers/game, after 4 consecutive games where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 31-5 SU L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Arizona to cover |
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10-31-19 | 49ers v. Cardinals UNDER 43 | 28-25 | Loss | -109 | 60 h 20 m | Show | |
New Orleans beat Arizona handily 31-9 last week. San Francisco had Sunday’s most lopsided victory, defeating Carolina 51-13. Tonight Im betting on SF regressing offensively, after last weeks explosive output , while their own top tier D continues to thrive. The Niners are ranked 2nd in the league in ppg allowed at 11. San Francisco has surrendered 23 total points in their last four games. Note:The last two meetings here in Arizona between these two teams have seen 33 combined points scored both times by identical 18-15 scores favoring Arizona. NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (ARIZONA) - after a loss by 14 or more points against opponent after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored are 34-9 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. NFL Home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (ARIZONA) - after a loss by 10 or more points against opponent after scoring 30 points or more last game are 30-8 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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10-28-19 | Dolphins v. Steelers UNDER 43.5 | 14-27 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show | |
The Dolphins rank last in the NFL in passer rating and Im betting things are not going to get any better tonight, as their offence will flounder against a capable D. Meanwhile, with Steelers, QB Mason Rudolph, making his first appearance at Heinz Field in 3 weeks ended when he barely made his way to the sidelines following a vicious hit to the head by Baltimore's Earl Thomas that briefly left him unconscious, may still find himself a little gun shy this week. With that said and HC Tomlin being the alert coach he is will most like and probably peg his offensive schemes on a ground heavy approach which in turn will eat clock time. The above combination of projected events will make for a low scoring affair. Note: The Steelers owns the 6th slowest pace in the league, and the Fins when they are losing a game by more than 7 points own the slowest pace in the league. PITTSBURGH is 10-2 UNDER versus poor rushing defenses - allowing 4.5 or more rushing yards/carry over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 41 ppg. Under is 4-1 in Dolphins last 5 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.Under is 4-1 in Dolphins last 5 games on grass.Under is 8-2 in Dolphins last 10 games following a straight up loss.Under is 13-4 in Dolphins last 17 games in Week 8.Under is 6-2 in Dolphins last 8 vs. a team with a losing record. Under is 6-1 in Steelers last 7 vs. AFC.Under is 9-2 in Steelers last 11 games in Week 8.Under is 6-2 in Steelers last 8 games on grass.Under is 20-7 in Steelers last 27 games in October. Under is 4-1 in Dolphins last 5 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.Under is 4-1 in Dolphins last 5 games on grass.Under is 8-2 in Dolphins last 10 games following a straight up loss.Under is 13-4 in Dolphins last 17 games in Week 8.Under is 6-2 in Dolphins last 8 vs. a team with a losing record. Big chalk of 13 or more points have gone UNDER the Total in 18 of the L/23 games, when the number is 52 or less points. Miami has gone under in 10 of their L/11 as non-division dogs of 10 points or more. Play UNDER |
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10-27-19 | Packers v. Chiefs +4 | 31-24 | Loss | -115 | 73 h 55 m | Show | |
Aaron Rodgers is red hot, and the KC Chiefs will start a backup QB in place of their star pivot Patrick Mahomes who is surprisingly already back at practice. However, Andy Reid knows how to win, and it's never easy to get a victory in Arrow Head and covering here won't be an easy task. Packers are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a ATS win.Packers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.Packers are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 8.Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Chiefs are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.Chiefs are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games following a ATS win.Chiefs are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.Chiefs are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.Chiefs are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points. NFL Underdogs or pick (KANSAS CITY) - after going under the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games, in non-conference games are 23-4 ATS L/10 seasons for a 85% conversion rate. Play on the KC Chiefs to cover |
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10-27-19 | Panthers v. 49ers OVER 42 | 13-51 | Win | 100 | 56 h 43 m | Show | |
The Panthers are fresh off a bye week, which Im betting will see them energized and ready to rumble here this week against a viable SF offence behind top tier QB James Garoppolo . The Panthers have gone over in 5 straight off a week off, and have gone over the total in 7 of their L/8 vs a side with a .800 or better win record and eclipsed the total in 4 of their L/5 vs NFC west. Meanwhile, the 49ers have gone over in 9 of their L/11 vs a side of bye. Yes, folks I know how dominate the Niners defences has been , but because of this early season recency bias , we get a very good number to bet into from a over bettors perspective according to my projections. A reversion to the mean here for the 49ers D makes for a portion of my decision making process this Sunday. CAROLINA is 8-1 OVER after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 59.9 ppg going on the board. NFL team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (CAROLINA) - after 4 or more consecutive wins against opponent after 5 or more consecutive wins are 27-1 OVER L/26 seasons for a 97% conversion rate. Play on the OVER |
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10-27-19 | Giants +7 v. Lions | 26-31 | Win | 100 | 53 h 20 m | Show | |
NY was dumped last week vs Arizona by a 27-21 count, but did make a come back after being down by DDs earlier in that game and have the ability to hang with a Motown side that has lost 3 straight games thanks in part to a porous D. Note: NFL visiting underdogs are a bankroll expanding 45-24-1 ATS this season, including 18-4-1 ATS when facing opposition coming off a defeat. Im betting on young gun Daniel Jones to have some luck here this week vs the Lions rickety secondary and for the Gmen to deliver the cash. Giants have won 4 of their L/5 visits to Detroit. NY GIANTS are 16-3 ATS L/19 after allowing 17 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games. DETROIT is 31-52 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992. NFL Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (NY GIANTS) - after allowing 17 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games against opponent after a loss by 10 or more points are 36-12 ATS L/36 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the NY Giants to cover |
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10-27-19 | Eagles +2.5 v. Bills | 31-13 | Win | 100 | 53 h 54 m | Show | |
Man did Philadelphia disappoint me last week in Dallas. It was an atrocious effort . Their D allowed 400 plus yards for the 2nd straight game. However despite of that, according to my projections and perceptions still a solid overall team that I whole heartedly believe in, especially against what I also project to be a over rated Buffalo team that has beat up on teams with a combined 6-25 SU record. I know this is the Eagles 3rd straight road game, and that they lost the previous two, but it must be noted that NFL road teams in the 3rd of three straight away tilts are a bankroll expanding 40-26 ATS when coming off consecutive losses and 32-16 ATS dating back 27 seasons), including 20-6 ATS in non- division tilts and a near perfect 11-1 ATS when coming off a losing effort of 10 or more points.. The Eagles themselves are 5-1 ATS as dogs in their 3rd straight away game. The Eagles are also 12-1 SU and 13-0 ATS away in the regular season after scoring 10 or fewer points which was the case last week in Dallas. PHILADELPHIA is 8-1 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 75% or better) over the last 3 seasons. Bills are 1-4 ATS L/5 at home vs a side with a losing record. Play on the Philadelphia Eagles to cover |
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10-27-19 | Broncos +6 v. Colts | 13-15 | Win | 100 | 51 h 16 m | Show | |
I was going to completely by pass this game, but the key number I was looking for awoke me to the value being offered here on this line. I know the Colts are playing great football, but Denver has been highly competitive so far this season despite of last weeks debacle vs the KC chiefs and QB Flacco's sack numbers. The Broncos had won their previous two games, and lost by 2 points to Jacksonville, and Chicago and gave the red hot Packers a run for their money in a 26-17 loss. With recency bias on our sides and a the fact that all the Colts decisions have come within 7 points or less, this is a viable side opportunity with the underdog. I also expect the Colts to be in a letdown spot after their big win vs Houston last week giving the hungry side room to out energize their opponent. Broncos are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games in Week 8.Broncos are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in October.Broncos are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game. Colts are 0-3-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. Play on the Denver Broncos to cover |
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10-27-19 | Seahawks v. Falcons +9.5 | 27-20 | Win | 100 | 3 h 34 m | Show | |
This line has just gone crazy as it opened at -3.5 and has steamed via public action all the way up to this -7 line. After that adjustment, we now have value with the ugly home mutt. I know Atlanta has looked horrendous for much of the early part of this season, but thanks to that recency bias we have value here taking points from a mathematical perspective. Fading large steam moves like this have been a long term winning proposition -131-77-6 ATS dating back 14 seasons for a solid 62% conversion rate and a ROI of 23%. ATLANTA is 33-17 ATS after allowing 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games. Play on the Atlanta Hawks to cover |
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10-20-19 | Eagles +3 v. Cowboys | 10-37 | Loss | -125 | 35 h 35 m | Show | |
Things are not good in Dallas right now as Americas team has lost three straight games, but are still being made favs here at home vs a Eagles side that has won 2 of their L3 games overall. This game is important to both sides, and Im betting it will be a hard fought battle that makes getting points a solid investment opportunity. It must be noted that HC Garrett has covered just 5 of 19 games as a home favorite of 3 points or less as the coach of DALLAS.The Dallas Cowboys, are also just 1-18-1 ATS as home favorites when coming off a SU and ATS loss. The Cowboys when made home favorites have allowed road underdogs to cash at a 34-19-1 ATS clip during the L/10 seasons for a 75% conversion rate . Eagles are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games in October.Eagles are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games.Road team is 11-4 ATS in their last 15 meetings. Play on the Philadelphia Eagles to cover |
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10-20-19 | Rams v. Falcons +3 | 37-10 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 8 m | Show | |
Things are not going the Atlanta Falcons way so far this season, as was evident last week when they out yarded and out played Arizona and still found a way to lose a one point 34-33 road tilt. Now the Falcons are extremely desperate to get a win here at home this week vs a struggling Rams side on a 3 game losing streak and Im betting take advantage of downtrodden team that is reeling out of control. Note:Super Bowl loser like the Rams as a non-division road chalk are just (28-51-5 ATS) . The Falcons are 4-0/SU/ATS L/4 in this series and get the nod again to get us the cover. ATLANTA is 21-8 ATS after allowing 400 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games.LA RAMS is 14-28 ATS L/42 in road games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better. NFL teams where the line is +3 to -3 (ATLANTA) - an average offensive team (18 to 23 PPG) against a good offensive team (23-27 PPG), after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored are 39-15 ATS L/36 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Atlanta to cover |
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10-20-19 | Dolphins +17.5 v. Bills | 21-31 | Win | 100 | 72 h 54 m | Show | |
Bills QB Josh Allen(Concussion protocol) has found ways to win despite throwing seven interceptions and losing several fumbles. He is truly a over rated QB at this point in his career. Meanwhile, the Dolphins are changing quarterbacks and last week, behind Ryan Fitzpatrick almost pulled off a miraculous comeback. Look for Fitzmagic to be the difference maker here today vs a solid but vulnerable D, that Its use will be over looking this current opponent. BUFFALO is 14-28 ATS after having won 4 out of their last 5 games since 1992. The Bills have lost the last two times they've been favored by 15 1/2 or more points. Buffalo lost 24-17 to the New York Jets on Dec. 6, 1992, and 16-13 at Indianapolis the previous week. NFL Road underdogs or pick (MIAMI) - off a home cover where the team lost as an underdog, winless on the season are 25-6 ATS L/36 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Miami Dolphins to cover |
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10-20-19 | 49ers v. Redskins +10 | 9-0 | Win | 100 | 72 h 38 m | Show | |
Lets not fool ourselves here , Washington is a horrendous team. However, travelling from west to east like the 49ers are here today and playing out of your time zone can also cause some havoc with a players body, and mind set and even preparedness. After being emotionally charged up for their last game , a win vs division rival the LA Rams Im expecting an emotional let down situation to concur with their east coast travel plans. With that said , Im betting on the 5-0 Niners to come out flat here and for the Skins to find a ugly way to cover. SAN FRANCISCO is 10-23 ATS L/33 in road games when playing against a terrible team (Win Pct. 25% or less). NFL Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (SAN FRANCISCO) - excellent offensive team - scoring 27 or more points/game, after allowing 14 points or less in 2 straight games are 5-24 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Washington Redskins to cover |
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10-20-19 | Raiders v. Packers OVER 46.5 | 24-42 | Win | 100 | 67 h 3 m | Show | |
The Raiders have back to back road underdog wins and 3 straight wins overall, and proving that they maybe better than many expected. It must be noted that both games easily eclipsed the total, and they have gone over in 3 straight games overall. Meanwhile, Green Bay is off a short week after playing a Monday night game at Lambeau and their D maybe a little tired and vulnerable forcing Aaron Rodgers to air it out more than might be expected this Sunday . Note: NFC chalk off a Monday Night division game like the Packers ... have gone 19-2-1 OVER dating back 8 seasons, including a 100% perfect 9-0 OVER when the Total is north of 45 points. Also GREEN BAY is 16-2 OVER after playing a game at home over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 51.9 ppg going on the board. Im projecting for both teams to score 20+ points here tonight. OAKLAND is 10-1 OVER when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 58.6 ppg. GREEN BAY is 9-2 OVER when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 57.2 ppg scored. This series has gone over 5 straight times average Total of : 44.7 and the average combined score clicking in at 51.4 ppg. Play OVER |
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10-20-19 | Dolphins v. Bills OVER 41 | 21-31 | Win | 100 | 4 h 58 m | Show | |
Neither one of these teams is as good or as a bad as they have looked so far this season. No the Fins offence is not as bad as it seemed early on , as was evident when QB Ryan Fitzpatrick was put under center last week , almost bringing his team back from a 14 point deficit. With that said, Im expecting Miami to do more offensive damage than than the linesmakers expect this week behind the arm and mind of one of the leagues most under rated QBs. Meanwhile, Buffalo in its usually methodical way will also land some blows in a game I have pegged to eclipse this artificially low total that is based almost solely on recency bias of unders by both sides. Note: Miami has allowed an average of 36 ppg this season! BUFFALO is 10-2 OVER vs. terrible ball control teams, 28 or lessminutes TOP, 16 or less FD's per game with a combined average of 46.8 ppg scored. Buffalo has gone over the L/7 times its has been made a 8 point or more favortie. Dolphins have gone over 5 straight times after a non conference home game. NFL team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (MIAMI) - off a cover where the team lost as an underdog, in the first half of the season are 33-12 OVER L/10 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. NFL team against the total (BUFFALO) - after allowing 17 points or less in 5 straight games against opponent after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game are 41-13 OVER L/36 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. Play OVER |
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10-17-19 | Chiefs v. Broncos +3.5 | 30-6 | Loss | -120 | 37 h 38 m | Show | |
Kansas City is struggling after losing 2 straight games thanks in part to Patrick Mahomes’ limited mobility because of an ankle injury. Tonight against a bruising run orientated Denver team Im betting those struggles continue. Chiefs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. KANSAS CITY is 2-14 L/16 ATS after gaining 6 or more yards/play in 4 consecutive games. Broncos are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in October.Broncos are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 Thursday games. Underdog is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 meetings. The Broncos are 11-0 ATS/SU on natural surface vs a divisional opponent after a win by more than a TD as a home favorite in which they were up by more than a FG at the half. NFL Road teams (KANSAS CITY) - off 2 or more consecutive upset losses as a favorite, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team are 9-31 ATS L/36 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Denver Broncos to cover |
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10-14-19 | Lions v. Packers OVER 45.5 | 22-23 | Loss | -101 | 11 h 59 m | Show | |
Here we go as the Detroit Lions visit the Green Bay Packers in what Im betting will be a fairly high scoring affair. Im betting on Lions QB Mathew Stafford who has owned the Packers D in the recent past to have a big night here. Stafford has thrown for multiple touchdowns in nine consecutive battles in this series, and nothing will change tonight. Meanwhile, Aaron Rodgers and in his usual way will return fire, despite of being without WR Davante Adams and will also use explosive RB Jones who leads the NFL with eight rushing touchdowns to rip apart of the D line as has been his MO . Jones has over powered his way into the end zone in six straight games at Lambeau Field. These teams have gone over 6 of the L/7 meetings with the average combined score of those tilts clicking in at 49.1 ppg. Detroit in their L/5 MNF games have seen a combined average score of 54.2 ppg going on the scoreboard. The Lions as a dog off a loss when they failed to score in the red zone at least 3 times, have gone over in the following game 7 straight times with at least 50 combined points scored. Im looking for the Lions to be very much more aggressive here tonight especially in the red zone, and to do a fair amount of offensive damage which will buoy this combined score over the number. Play OVER |
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10-13-19 | Steelers v. Chargers -6.5 | 24-17 | Loss | -109 | 83 h 11 m | Show | |
The Steelers suffered a bitter 26-23 overtime loss to the Ravens last week and will now be in an emotional letdown spot here this week. Also With Mason Rudolph injured(knocked out cold last week in frightening fashion) and playing at less than 100% or not at all , the Steelers are now down to third string Quarterback Devlin Hodges and are very much fade material here in this spot play. I know the Chargers came out flat last week vs the Broncos, and lost a 20-14 sleeper but now wide awake after that metaphorical nap Im expecting the Chargers to wake up in a big way and to add more pain to the Steeler nation. I know theSteelers are known as a chalk killer, and have consistently cashed in the underdog role overthe last few seasons, but todays situation does not bode well for this trend to continue. LA CHARGERS is 8-1 ATS after playing a game at home over the last 2 seasons and is 29-14 ATS off an upset loss as a home favorite. NFL team (LA CHARGERS) - after a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers against opponent after 4 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better are 79-40 L/37 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the LA Chargers to cover |
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10-13-19 | Cowboys v. Jets +7.5 | 22-24 | Win | 100 | 79 h 53 m | Show | |
Dallas has lost their last two games, and are looking less and less viable as contenders as this season progresses. Meanwhile, with the Jets QB Sam Darnold now expected to be back in the lineup the Jets look like viable home dogs in this spot. Im not saying the Jets will win, but getting 7 points at home with your starting QB back in the lineup will provide both a logistics edge as well an emotional one of the home dog. Jets are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Jets are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games in October. Underdog is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.Road team is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings. The Cowboys are 1-16 ATS as a favorite on turf when they are off a game as a favorite and they are facing a team that has a third down conversion percentage of less than 40%. Play on the NY Jets to cover |
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10-13-19 | Falcons -1 v. Cardinals | 33-34 | Loss | -125 | 81 h 34 m | Show | |
The Atlanta Falcons are now in desperation mode, vs a team Im betting they can handle in the Arizona Cardinals. I know the Flacons have lost three straight and in their last game got blasted 53-32 at Houston, but this has been a motivating factor for the Falcons in the past as they are 9-0 ATS L/9 times in road games off a road blowout loss by 21 points or more. Arizona got their first win of the season vs a banged up Bengals team last time out but are just 2-11- SU and 3-10- ATS in games when coming off a win, including 0-4-1 SUATS at home. The Cardinals are also 0-14 SU/ATS as a dog off a game as a dog when they are facing a team that is off two seven-plus point losses like the Falcons. Today Im betting on QB Matt Ryan delivering what the Falcons need and thats a win and more importantly as far as we are concerned a cover. NFL Road teams (ATLANTA) - outrushed by their opponents by 40 or more yards/game on the season, after being outrushed by 100 or more yards last game are 24-5 ATS L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. NFL Road favorites (ATLANTA) - excellent passing team - averaging 255 or more passing yards/game, after allowing 7 or more passing yards/attempt in 3 straight games are 36-12 ATS L/36 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Atlanta Falcons to cover |
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10-13-19 | Redskins v. Dolphins +3.5 | 17-16 | Win | 100 | 77 h 41 m | Show | |
The Dolphins are a despicable team , and so is are their opponents the Washington Redskins. But the lesser of the two evils according to my projections resides with the Dolphins getting points at home. This is strictly about performance charts and the mathematics associated with betting pro football. No way in hell do the Redksins deserve to be 3 plus point chalk on the road , not even against the Fins and this game according to my estimates should be a pickem and thus in my betting opinion getting points here will be golden. Note: The Dolphins are well rested and have had time to get ready for this tilt. Dolphins are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a bye week. Washington has historically been a bad bet as favorites- WASHINGTON is 33-54 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Play on the Miami Dolphins to cover |
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10-13-19 | Seahawks v. Browns +2 | 32-28 | Loss | -105 | 76 h 27 m | Show | |
The Seattle Seahawks enter this game vs the Cleveland Browns after beating the Los Angeles Rams 30-29 on Thursday Night Football in what was a hard fought emotional affair and now Im betting they will be hung over. Meanwhile, Cleveland is off being embarrassed 31-3 in a Monday night tilt, and will be primed to bounce back. I know Browns QB Baker Mayfield has struggled a bit of late, but today against a Seahawks 26th ranked pass D secondary that is allowing 270.6 passing yards per game, Im betting he comes to life and buoys his team to a cover. Browns are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up loss. Seahawks are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win. The Seahawks are 0-12 SU/ATS as a dog vs a non-divisional opponent when they are off a win and their rushing yards increased over each of their last two games. Home team is 3-0-2 ATS in their last 5 meetings. Play on the Cleveland Browns to cover |
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10-13-19 | Texans v. Chiefs UNDER 55.5 | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 69 h 47 m | Show | |
Patrik Mahomes only has one TD in his last two games, and Andy Reids D, is play ing lazy ball. Now that its become obvious that Mahomes is not a football god just yet, and possibly experiencing a sophomore jinx, this chiefs D is going to have up their game. Meanwhile, Texas is off an explosive 52 output last week, and in a all out offensive battle vsTB in a win and now Im expecting a regression to the mean. This combination will Im betting make for a lower scoring game than public and pundits might expect. KANSAS CITY is 6-0 UNDER in home games vs. awful passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 64% or worse over the last 3 seasons with the average combined score clicking in at 39.9 ppg. Reid is 18-4 UNDER in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 5.65 or more yards/play as the coach of KANSAS CITY with a combined average of 41.3 ppg scored. Reid is 21-7 UNDER in home games vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game. as the coach of KANSAS CITY with a combined average of 44.3 ppg scored. The Chiefs are 3-15 UNDER as +5 or more non division home chalk. HOUSTON is 7-0 UNDER off a home win over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 36.8 ppg scored and have gone under 4 straight times after a win by 14 or more points. HOUSTON has gone under in 10 of their L/11 non division home games. Play UNDER |
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10-13-19 | Panthers -1 v. Bucs | 37-26 | Win | 100 | 89 h 22 m | Show | |
. Tottenham Hotspur Stadium - London, England Tampa off two consecutive road games and now travelling across the pond look vulnerable in a place (England) that has not been kind to them going 0-2 SUATS while being outscored by 59-25 count , and Im betting they end up on the wrong side of the scoreboard here this week against the Carolina Panthers. Look for Panthers QB Kyle Allen to improve to 5-0 SUATS as a NFL starter . When these teams met back on Sept 12 TB upset Carolina at home and now revenge is on board for the Panthers . Note: Rivera is 13-4 ATS revenging a home loss against opponent as the coach of CAROLINA. also since that loss the Panthers have won 3 straight and have the confidence and momentum to get what they want. TAMPA BAY is 0-6 ATS after allowing 6.5 or more yards/play 2 consecutive games over the last 3 seasons. NFL teams where the line is +3 to -3 (TAMPA BAY) - after allowing 7 or more passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games against opponent after gaining 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in last game are 10-32 ATS L/5 seasons for a 76% go against conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Carolina Panthers to cover |
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10-07-19 | Browns v. 49ers -4.5 | 3-31 | Win | 100 | 13 h 6 m | Show | |
The undefeated Forty Niners take on the public darling Browns tonight on Monday night Football .Teams like SF that are undefeated NFL home teams in Monday night prime time affairs are , 25-5 SU and 23-7 ATS in non-division games. Overall this Niners franchise has a long history of MNF success going 40-16 SU and 41-14-1 ATS . Meanwhile, the Browns enter with a 2-0 record in their first two away games for the first time in the L/25 years, and it came against strong opposition (Ravens and Rams) and they must be respected for those efforts . However, from a historical standpoint this is not a good situation for the Browns as they have been futile in back to back road affairs as they have never won back to back away games dating back 16 season which includes 38 back-to-back road tilts. Its actually never easy for any NFL team to win back to back road games, and with the Browns playing their 3rd prime time game of the season, Im betting some emotional fatigue could rare its ugly head tonight giving the home side and extra advantage. CLEVELAND is 1-9 ATS L/10 in road games off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival NFL .CLEVELAND is 9-21 ATS L/20 after a win by 14 or more points. SAN FRANCISCO is 32-11 ATS when playing on Monday night since 1992. Road underdogs or pick (CLEVELAND) - off a upset win by 14 points or more as an underdog, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 10-33 ATS L/37 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the SF 49ers to cover |
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10-06-19 | Patriots v. Redskins +16 | 33-7 | Loss | -110 | 99 h 53 m | Show | |
New England had a hard fought win vs Buffalo last week by a 16-10 count as they failed to cover as TD road chalk. In that game, super star and future HOF QB Tom Brady’s 45.9 Passer Rating registered as his worst in 13 campaigns. Is the veteran starting to show his age or was this an anomaly? While I never want to count out one of the leagues all time great QBs ....it still must be noted that " Father Time is Undefeated" and King Toms inevitable departure from the game more imminent than many might realize. Meanwhile, Washington despite of their miserable efforts in back to back games, are not as bad as some of the pundits might think. Yes, the Skins have looked in-cohesive behind their current QBs Keenum and rookie Haskins but the Skins D has still shown some life and no team is ever as bad as they looked in their last game in this league . With that said, Im betting we have some value here with the ugly home dog from a mathematical perspective. Note: With veteran QB Colt McCoy now healthy and practicing after breaking his leg last season he could possibly be getting the start this week making the Skins are a very viable underdog. The former Texas Longhorns star appeared in three games last season, completing 34 of 54 passes for 372 yards with three touchdowns while also rushing for 63 yards on 10 carries. Skins 6-1 ATS L/7 as home dogs against .600 or better opposition. WASHINGTON is 10-1 ATS versus excellent rushing defenses - allowing 70 or less rushing yards/game .The Redskins are 12-1 ATS (L/13 as a dog vs a team like the Pats that is forcing more than 5.9 punts per game. NFL Favorites of 10.5 or more points (NEW ENGLAND) - outgaining their opponents by 1.75 or more passing yards/attempt, after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 13-39 ATS L/36 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors. NFL Favorites of 10.5 or more points (NEW ENGLAND) - good passing team - with a completion pct of 60% or better, after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in 3 straight games are 5-23 ATS L/36 seasons for a go against 82% conversion rate for bettors. NFL Underdogs or pick (WASHINGTON) - outrushed by their opponents by 40 or more yards/game on the season, after being outrushed by 100 or more yards last game are 30-10 ATS L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Washington Redskins to cover |
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10-06-19 | Vikings -4.5 v. Giants | 28-10 | Win | 100 | 53 h 30 m | Show | |
Despite of losing to the Bears last week 16-6 the Minnesota Vikings are still a top tier team that has held two of their opponents to season low yards. Now this week against a young QB Daniel Jones, Im betting the Vikings defence comes out and completely dominates the line of scrimmage. Hey I know the Giants QB Jones is media darling, but he still has lessons to be learned before he can ascend to his current premature god like status, and today Im betting those lessons will be brutal. Key today will be Minnesota running game that is averaging 155.3 yards rushing against a banged up Gmen rush D, that is currently ranked at 19th in the league. Giants are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a straight up win.Giants are 5-16-1 ATS in their last 22 games following a ATS win.Giants are 6-20 ATS in their last 26 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.Giants are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 home games.Giants are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. Zimmer is 33-16 ATS as a favorite as the coach of MINNESOTA. Vikings head coach Mike Zimmer is 17-2-1 ATS against non- division opponents when coming off a loss, including 8-0 ATS as a favorite. Play on the Minnesota Vikings to cover |
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10-06-19 | Falcons v. Texans OVER 50 | 32-53 | Win | 100 | 29 h 55 m | Show | |
Houston offensive line has allowed the third-most quarterback sacks so far this season, but hat wont be an issue today vs a Atlanta side that just cannot generate much of a pass rush. With said, Im expecting the sometimes explosive and talented Jamies Winston to have a big day today. Meanwhile, the Falcons stud QB Matt Ryan ranks first in pass attempts, second in passing yards as is evident by having thrown for 300 or more yards in every game this season and should once again have a huge day vs a wobbly Texans secondary that has been torched on a regular basis this season . Over is 17-4 in Falcons last 21 games on fieldturf. Over is 15-5 in Texans last 20 games in October. Road teams against the total (ATLANTA) - after 2 or more consecutive losses, in the first half of the season are 63-32 OVER L/5 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the OVER |
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10-06-19 | Bills v. Titans OVER 38.5 | 14-7 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 23 m | Show | |
All these early season low scoring games by two of the leagues top defences so far has this Totals number vulnerable for over bettors to cash. My own projections estimate a combined score in the low 40s, thus from a mathematical perspective based on those estimates Im recommending we take an over stance. NFL TENNESSEE is 31-13 OVER versus good defensive teams - allowing 285 or less yards/game with a combined average of 42.7 ppg. TENNESSEE is 23-10 OVER in home games vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points/game with a combined average of 44.1 ppg scored and in their L/21 games vs. dominant ball control teams, 32+ minutes TOP, 21+ FD's per game have seen a combined average of 48.8 ppg scored. NFL team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (BUFFALO) - off a cover where the team lost as an underdog, in the first half of the season are 33-11 L/10 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors. Play OVER |
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10-06-19 | Ravens -3 v. Steelers | 26-23 | Push | 0 | 4 h 39 m | Show | |
Last week the Steelers implemented a wild cat offence, and had some success, thats not going to work against Baltimore. It also obvious to me now that without their veteran QB Roethlisberger at the helm of the offence, scoring is going to be difficult prospect for the Steelers going forward . On the flip side Im betting the ravens behind QB Lamar Jackson’s run heavy offence that has produced 200 yard plus efforts in 7 of 12 of his career starts awhile averaging 5.6 rpg carry will be the key to them getting the win and cover in this spot. The Ravens are 13-4 ATS L/17 on the road. Harbaugh is 6-0 ATS in road games after allowing 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games as the coach of BALTIMORE. NFL Favorites vs. the money line (BALTIMORE) - excellent offensive team (370 or more YPG) against a team with a terrible defense (370 or more YPG), after allowing 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 44-4 L/10 seasons for 92% conversion rate. NFL Road favorites vs. the money line (BALTIMORE) - with a good offense - averaging 335 or more total yards/game, after allowing 400 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 37-3 L/10 seasons for a 93% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Baltimore to cover |
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10-03-19 | Rams v. Seahawks -1.5 | 29-30 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 48 m | Show | |
Im betting Pete Carrolls Seahawks who are off a easy dd win last week vs Arizona will be primed for a big time effort here vs a reeling St.Louis team that was pounded 55-40 last week by TB at home. It must be noted this is the Seahawks first time playing here at CenturyLink Field after losing their first game ever game in September in front of their home town fans so their is definitely a motivation factor here at work today. Defending Super Bowl losers like the Rams against opposition like Seattle coming off a double-digit victory, are 2-15 SU when the defending finals group are off an ATS loss in their last game. Seattle QB Russell Wilson, is 12-1-1 ATS in his NFL career in tilts against opposition coming off a SU favorite loss including 9-0 ATS when they are chalk of 5 points or less in those games. SEATTLE is 8-1 ATS vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better over the last 2 seasons. Carroll is 7-0 ATS when playing on a Thursday as the coach of SEATTLE. LA RAMS is 8-20 ATS L/28 in road games versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 375 or kore yards/game. LA RAMS is 7-24 ATS L/31 after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -2 or worse. NFL Home teams (SEATTLE) - after 3 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers against opponent after a game with a turnover margin of -3 or worse are 24-5 ATS L/10 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Seattle Seahawks to cover |
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10-03-19 | Rams v. Seahawks UNDER 49.5 | 29-30 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 37 m | Show | |
After giving up 55 points last time out to Tampa Bay in a loss the Rams will be ready to slow things down and get back to playing hardcore defence. Meanwhile, Seattle almost always fields a tough D, as was the case when they allowed just 265 yards to New Orleans in their last home game which some how ended in a loss. Im betting they will be even more diligent and conservative here in their return home as they look to protect the ball from turnovers. This above projected combination of projected game plan scenarios, makes for a viable under wager. Carroll is 11-3 UNDER after scoring 25 points or more in 3 straight games as the coach of SEATTLE with a combined average of 38 ppg going on the score board. NFL team against the total (LA RAMS) - off an upset loss by 14 points or more as a favorite are 51-21 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. NFL Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (SEATTLE) - with a poor passing D - allowing 230 or more passing yards/game, after gaining 8 or more passing yards/attempt last game are 35-12 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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09-30-19 | Bengals v. Steelers -3 | 3-27 | Win | 100 | 34 h 8 m | Show | |
The Bengals enter this Monday night game looking very inconsistent this season which is not a good omen for them as they go against a Pittsburgh Steelers franchise that has dominated them. The Bengals have lost eight straight and 11 of 12 against their AFC North rival Steelers and are just 6-15 in prime-time games since 2011, including 2-5 on Monday night. Im betting more of the same misery awaits them is in this spot. I know the Steelers will be playing without their veteran QB Roethisberger but in my own betting opinion his back up Mason Rudolph is more than capable of getting the job done here tonight. NFL Underdogs or pick (CINCINNATI) - excellent offensive team (5.8 or more YPP) against a team with a terrible defense (5.8 or more YPP), after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game are 11-34 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Pittsburgh to cover |
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09-29-19 | Cowboys v. Saints +3 | 10-12 | Win | 100 | 104 h 0 m | Show | |
Teddy Bridgewater looks just fine replacing super star QB Drew Bree's in last weeks road win vs Seattle. The Saints QB is now 24-7 ATS as a starter in the NFL, including 17-2 ATS in non-division tilts and Im betting he responds well here at home in the friendly confines of the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Note: . HC Sean Payton has seen his teams thrive against non-division opposition like the Cowboys coming off a double-digit win, going 21-5-1 ATS in his NFL career, including a perfect 8-0 ATS in games when coming off a SU underdog victory. The Saints are 12-1 SU and 13-0 ATS L/13 at home during the regular season against .800 or greater opponents. NFL Road favorites (DALLAS) - with an excellent offense - averaging 5.7 or more yards/play, after gaining 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 9-31 ATS L/36 seasons for a 78% go against conversion rate for bettors. Take the points with the New Orleans Saints to cover |
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09-29-19 | Seahawks -4.5 v. Cardinals | 27-10 | Win | 100 | 81 h 31 m | Show | |
Last week Seattle's QB Russell Wilson. threw for 406 yards and four touchdowns and the Seahawks out yarded Saints 515-265) and still lost in a ugly looking contest at home, a place Pete Carrolls troops usually flourish. Now in a focused bounce back situation Im betting the Seahawks come out and take care of business vs a over matched Arizona side that is depending way to much on a rookie QB Kyler Murray’(0-2-1) to get things done. The lines makers believe the Seahawks are the superior side and I agree they have a very high probability of winning here and covering . Note: In the Cardinals last 39 home losses they are a astonishing 1-36-2 ATS. ARIZONA is 3-11 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game. over the last 3 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at -15.7. Play on the Seattle Seahawks to cover |
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09-29-19 | Bucs v. Rams UNDER 50 | 55-40 | Loss | -110 | 79 h 22 m | Show | |
The Rams held the Saints to only nine points in their first home game this season and they were all over Drew Bree's and he finally got injured and left the game. This Rams pass rush is vicious and against a TB front 7 that allowed James Winston to be sacked 4 times last week, things won't get much better here and as a result of my prognosis Im betting the Bucanners point production will also take a hit. Note:The Buccaneers a have gone under 9 straight times off a home defeat that saw their QB sacked four or more times with a combined average of 33.6 ppg scored with the highest output coming in at 45 points. I also expect the Rams to be methodical in their approach as they look to keep Jeff Goff healthy and protected from an improving TB pass rush that has 5 sacks last week vs the Giants and for RB Todd Gurley to participate more than he did in last weeks game vs the Browns where he was targeted just once. This combination Im betting will lead to a combined score that remains on the low side of the total. NFL team against the total (LA RAMS) - a top-level team (75% or better) playing a team with a losing record are 68-33 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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09-29-19 | Redskins +3 v. Giants | 3-24 | Loss | -115 | 77 h 7 m | Show | |
I know that if you watched the Redskins last Monday night, you might feel squeamish about pulling the trigger on them here. That was truly a horrendous effort in prime time as they were down 28-0 at the half before finally losing 31-15 . However, Im now betting this Skins team wants to make amends for being embarrassed in front the of the nation and will come out here with their proverbial hair on fire. Hey guys I know their is a love fest going on around NYG new QB Daniel Jones,but operating without star all purpose RB Saquon Barkley who is out for 6 to 8 weeks will hinder him going forward as will a Giants secondary that is getting torched on a regular basis. With that said Ill recommend you Plug your nose and take the points. It must be noted that Washington is a perfect 8-0 ATS on the road after a SU and ATS home loss winning 7 of those game SU with the only loss coming in OT by a FG. NY GIANTS are 1-11 ATS in home games after allowing 350 or more passing yards in their last game which was the case agains the TB Bucs last week.NY GIANTS are 0-8 ATS in home games in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons. NFL Favorites (NY GIANTS) - with a poor turnover defense - forcing 1 or less turnovers/game, after 3 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse are 8-28 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Washington Redskins to cover |
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09-26-19 | Eagles v. Packers -3.5 | 34-27 | Loss | -115 | 34 h 16 m | Show | |
I said it earlier this season, and Im still on board with my thinking that this is a special version of the Green Bay Packers and that if they can avert injuries may surprise alot of pundits this season with a Super Bowl run. As far as this game goes, I really feel strongly that the Packers are the superior side, especially at home vs a Eagles team that is banged up with alot of injuries. Note: QB Aaron Rodgers is 9-2 ATS in his career in prime time Thursdays and a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS in his career vs the Eagles. NFL teams like the Packers that enter game 4 of the season at 3-0 ATS are 10-0 ATS against 0-3 ATS teams lhe Eagles since 1980. GREEN BAY is 20-5 ATS in home games after a game with a turnover margin of +3 or better. NFL Underdogs or pick (PHILADELPHIA) - after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games, when playing on a Thursday are 21-52 ATS L/36 seasons for a go against 71% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Green Bay Packers to cover |
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09-23-19 | Bears v. Redskins +4 | 31-15 | Loss | -105 | 132 h 3 m | Show | |
Chicago just can't move the ball, and QB Trubisky looks lost 90% of the time. The Bears were fortunate to get a win last week vs Denver, but now in a letdown situation after that lucky and emotional win,Im betting on a rocky performance especially with this being the Bears 2nd straight road game. Bottom line is the Redksins have an edge getting points at home. WASHINGTON is 8-0 ATS after allowing 6.5 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 3 seasons. NFL Underdogs or pick (WASHINGTON) - poor defense from last season - allowed 335 or more total yards/game, after allowing 450 or more total yards in their previous game are 34-13 ATS L/36 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Washington to cover |
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09-22-19 | Saints +4.5 v. Seahawks | 33-27 | Win | 100 | 93 h 16 m | Show | |
While confirming that starting quarterback Drew Brees would have surgery to repair a torn ligament in his right thumb, New Orleans Saints Coach Sean Payton said the offensive plan for Sunday’s game against Seattle will include both the No.2 and No3 quarterbacks, Teddy Bridgewater and Taysom Hill. Seattle HC Carroll will have his hands full facing and strategizing against a two QB system . Do not count out the talented Saints ability compete here. Payton is 21-8 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points as the coach of NEW ORLEANS. Payton is 27-13 ATS off a road loss as the coach of NEW ORLEANS. NFL Home favorites (SEATTLE) - good offense from last season - averaged 5.4 or more yards/play, after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game are 11-34 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate. Play on the Saints to cover |
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09-22-19 | Steelers +7 v. 49ers | 20-24 | Win | 100 | 55 h 6 m | Show | |
The Steelers begin life without injured future HOF QB Ben Roethisberger, and instead will be forced to start Mason Rudolph . Don't feel to sorry for the Steelers however, as there some talent still left, as well as a top tier coach in Tomlin who has proven he can guide his team to victory even when Big Ben is on the sidelines as is evident by winning 10 of 17 games su without their star QB. I know the Niners are getting alot of accolades and playing at the proverbial opposite end of the performance spectrum than the Steelers, but in the past the 49ers are bad bets vs the following perimeters going just 1-7 ATS when coming off back-to-back ATS wins, and an unperfected 0-7 ATS off non-division tilts when facing opposition coming off consecutive losses like the Steelers. NFL teams like the Niners in Week 3 home openers after starting the season with back-to-back road games are jus 11-27-2 ATS L/40 opportunities for go against 71% conversion rate for bettors. Also home teams off back to back road games to start their season in their home opener have covered under 50% of their games dating back 16 seasons. PITTSBURGH in their L/103 games as a road underdog since 1992 have seen an average ppg diff of -1.8 ppg. NFL Home favorites (SAN FRANCISCO) - team with a poor scoring defense last season - allowed 24 or more points/game, after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored are 5-34 ATS L/36 seasons for go go against 87% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Pittsburgh Steelers to cover |
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09-22-19 | Raiders v. Vikings OVER 42 | 14-34 | Win | 100 | 124 h 18 m | Show | |
Both Minnesota and Oakland are off losses last week after notching victories in week 1. This week I expect the Vikings to come out with all guns blazing after suffering a loss to the Packers last week by a 21-15 count. Cousins the Vikings QB did not have a great performance last week, but here at home vs a Raiders’ defense that has allowed a 120.5 passer rating and that will be without safety Jonathan Abram, Im betting Cousins flourishes and puts a load of points and production on the board via play action based on RB Dalvin Cooks ability to open up the field with the run. He leads the NFL with 265 rushing yards . Im also expecting Raiders QB Derek Carr to do just enough damage to see this combined score eclipse the total. Over is 4-0-1 in Raiders last 5 games on fieldturf. Over is 2-0-2 in the last 4 meetings. NFL team against the total (MINNESOTA) - in non-conference games, off a close loss by 7 points or less to a division rival are 61-24 OVER L/10 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. NFL teams like Oakland are 28-0 OVER L/28 as a 5 or more point underdog on artificial turf when they are off a home loss and facing a non-divisional opponent that is allowing fewer than 22.8 ppg season-to-date, but had fewer than 26 minutes of possession time in their last contest. Play OVER |
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09-22-19 | Dolphins +22 v. Cowboys | 6-31 | Loss | -110 | 93 h 50 m | Show | |
Wow.Im not going to blame the public here for being brave enough to lay 3+ TDS with Dak Prescott and Co. as last week they watched squares and sharps cash on the New England Pats. in a 43-0 whitewash that saw bettors laying -19 . In two games the Dolphins have shown no pride or fight what so ever while getting out scored 102-10. Now the pundits and even their dogs are laughing at the Fins, and this week Im expecting this group to come out in a nasty mood after being embarrassed. Remember these are not College kids and they dont like to be made to look like fools. it must also be noted that Dak Prescott is no Tom Brady modus operandi usually very precise and conservative that does not pile up points via a fast all out attack. The Cowboys are more of a grinding side, which gives me credence in my choice to take 22 points here in what Im betting is a mathematical edge according to my projections. NFL Underdogs or pick (MIAMI) - pathetic defense from last season - allowed 385 or more total yards/game are 33-11 ATS L/10 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. Dallas head coach Jason Garrett has covered just 7 of his L/22 against the spread as a favorite of a touchdown or greater. NFL Home favorites (DALLAS) - good offense from last season - averaged 5.4 or more yards/play, after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game are 11-34 ATS L/10 seasons for go against 11-34 ATS record L/10 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate fir bettors. Play on the Miami Dolphins to cover |
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09-22-19 | Jets +24 v. Patriots | 14-30 | Win | 100 | 90 h 15 m | Show | |
New England clobbered hapless Miami last week, and now with a 3rd string QB expected to start this week for the Jets another beatdown is expected. However im betting QB Luke Falk via star RB Levon Bell and some other trickery will be utilized this Sunday and that the Jets a team that has a history of hanging tough at Gillette Stadium will get us the cover. Over the last 26 seasons seven NFL games have closed with a point spread of 20 points or higher and those teams are 7-0 straight up, but are just 1-6 against the spread. Since the 2007 season, favorites of 20 or more points are 0-5 ATS , failing to, cover the spread by 11.4 points per game. NFL team (NEW ENGLAND) - after 2 straight wins by 21 or more points against opponent after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game are 15-39 ATS L/36 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the NY Jets to cover |
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09-22-19 | Bengals +6 v. Bills | 17-21 | Win | 100 | 51 h 9 m | Show | |
Buffalo comes into this game off two straight road wins to start their season, and the city of Buffalo is now sky high. So as in their usual fashion, I won't be surprised of the Bills crap the bed here this week vs the Bengals, a team that has played Dr.Jekyll and Mr.Hyde football to begin their campaign, playing well on the road vs Seattle in week 1 and than falling asleep at the proverbial wheel in game two and clobbered by DDs by non other than the 49ers. Now in a rebound mode I expect the Bengals to come out here, and really give the Bills a battle. Note: Buffalo is recently just 3-13 SU and 3-12-1 ATS when coming off consecutive SU/ATS victories. NFL teams like the Bills in Week 3 home openers after starting the season with back-to-back road games are just 11-27-2 ATS L/40 opportunities for go against 71% conversion rate for bettors. Also home teams off back to back road games to start their season in their home opener have covered under 50% of their games dating back 16 seasons. NFLUnderdogs or pick (CINCINNATI) - pathetic defense from last season - allowed 385 or more total yards/game are 31-11 ATS L/10 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Cincinnati Bengals to cover |
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09-22-19 | Ravens +6 v. Chiefs | 28-33 | Win | 100 | 51 h 58 m | Show | |
Public darlings KC enter this game as favourites vs the upstart Baltimore Ravens who have clobbered opponent after opponent all the way back into the preseason and are Im betting capable of hanging with the explosive KC Chiefs.The Ravens are outgunning their opposition by +267 net YPG while averaging a league-best 41 PPG. Both teams can score , but the difference maker will come on D, where the. Ravens despite of some short comings are still better than the Swiss cheese D of the Chiefs that plays with very little emotion thanks to QB Patrick Mahomes ability to give them huge leads. I do believe the Ravens are putting alot miles on their bodies out of the gate this season with all out performances which could effect them later on in the campaign, but for this week Im expecting a full pedal to the metal performance. KANSAS CITY is 2-12 ATS after gaining 450 or more total yards/game over their last 2 games. Baltimore has won and covered 3 of their L/4 visits to Arrowhead. KC won last year 27-24 here at home, but it must be noted that HC Haraugh is 7-0-1 ATS the last eight when seeking revenge for a loss.
NFL Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (KANSAS CITY) - after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite against opponent off a home win are 10-34 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Baltimore Ravens to cover |
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09-19-19 | Titans v. Jaguars OVER 39 | 7-20 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 51 m | Show | |
These teams took part in low scoring affairs last week so a lot of the public is jumping on the under here. However, Im betting on a different result. The Titans and Jaguars have averaged 46.6 combined ppg in the last 7 meetings and a combined score in that range is on my projection charts for this tilt. Division tilts in week 3 of the reg season have gone 21-5 to the OVER when the Total is set at 39 points or more.AFC South Division contests like this one are 7-0 OVER dating back 7 seasons when the home side is a underdog of 3or more points.NFL home underdogs have gone 17-4 OVER dating back 11 seasons when both teams sides scored and allowed less than 20 points in their last game which was the case for both teams. NFL team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (JACKSONVILLE/TENNESSEE) - off an extremely close loss by 3 points or less to a division rival are 37-12 OVER L/10 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the OVER |
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09-16-19 | Browns v. Jets +3 | 23-3 | Loss | -110 | 108 h 18 m | Show | |
The public was all over the Cleveland in game 1 of the season, and they lost big time when the Browns crapped the bed in their opener for their 19th loss in 21 seasons in their opening game(includes a tie). Im still not a believer in a team with no winning culture in place, and despite of the upgrades and fantasy like dreams of a Super Bowl by the pundits and their supporters, I believe we should all temper our expectations at least for now on how good the Browns will be this season. I also don't think they deserve to road favs in this spot vs a hard nosed NY Jets team that matches up fairly well against them. With that said, Im recommending we take the points here tonight. Cleveland 0-3 ATS L/3 Monday night tilts. NY Jets are 5-1 ATS L/6 in this series. Cleveland is 2-12 ATS L/14 coming off a loss. Road teams vs. the money line (CLEVELAND) - after being beaten by the spread by more than 35 points in their previous game, in conference games are 4-24 SU L/36 seasons for a go against 85% conversion rate for bettors. NFL Favorites (CLEVELAND) - team with a poor scoring defense last season - allowed 24 or more points/game, after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored are 15-40 ATS since 1983 for a go against 73% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the NY Jets to cover |
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09-15-19 | Eagles -1 v. Falcons | 20-24 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 0 m | Show | |
Philadelphia's Darren Sproles, Jordan Howard and rookie Miles Sanders combined for 116 yards rushing on 26 carries in Week 1 against Washington, helping the Eagles rally from a 17-point deficit for a 32-27 win. This Philadelphia team looked rejuvenated and like they were on a mission, and have momentum and chip on their shoulders coming into this game against the Atlanta Hawks a team that coming off a ugly looking 28-12 defeat at Minnesota in the season opener. Note: The Falcons were gashed by the Vikings for 172 yards on the ground and the three headed monster of Sproles, Howard and Sanders should be ready for a field day here on Sunday night Football. Quinn the Falcons HC has now lost 11 of his last 18 games going back to the playoffs and is fade material according to my power rankings. Philadelphia is 5-0 SU/ATS away vs a side of a away SU loss.Eagles are 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 meetings. Falcons are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.Falcons are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. ATLANTA is 1-9 ATS in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 over the last 2 seasons.Eagles are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games. NFL Underdogs (ATLANTA) - after trailing in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half against opponent after scoring 30 points or more last game are 3-32 SU L/5 seasons for a go against 94% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Philadelphia Eagles to cover |
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09-15-19 | Bears -2.5 v. Broncos | 16-14 | Loss | -110 | 82 h 3 m | Show | |
The Chicago Bears and the Denver Broncos are both off opening week losses, and will be primed to bounce back. The Bears offense managed just 254 yards in their opening loss last Thursday, but the defense held the Packers to 213 yards, including allowing Aaron Rodgers to throw for just 166 yards and Im betting they will be key to slowing down QB Joe Flacco and the Broncos here in this tilt. The Bears have had extra rest , while Denver is on short rest. Note: Broncos are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game. Green By is 3-0 ATS vs teams coming off aMonday night game. Bears are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings. CHICAGO is 20-6 ATS against AFC West division opponents since 1992.Since 2014, a team like the Bears that did not cover at home in Week 1, and is on the road in Week 2, is 22-7 ATS (75%) in that Week 2 away tilt. DENVER is 0-6 ATS off a loss against a division rival over the last 3 seasons and is is 0-8 ATS after trailing in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half over the last 3 seasons. NFL Home teams (DENVER) - poor passing defense from last season - allowed 7 or more passing yards/attempt, in non-conference games are 8-30 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Chicago Bears to cover |
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09-15-19 | Chiefs v. Raiders UNDER 53.5 | 28-10 | Win | 100 | 7 h 47 m | Show | |
Andy Reids explosive KC Cheifs jumped out of the shoot last week, with a 40-27 win at Jacksonville . But it must be noted that the Chiefs have gone under in 7 of their L/10 after putting 40 or more points on the board, thanks in part to the lines makers over adjusting because of recency bias. Meanwhile, Oakland also won their first game 24-16 with good offensive management and a strong looking D. With the departure of Antonio Brown and a limited experienced WR group, Im expecting alot of short passes and clock burning running plays, to limit their output production vs what Im betting will be a more viable KC D this season. Note: The Raiders have gone under in back to back division games and have gone under in 6 of their L/8 as 7 point or more home dogs. Under is 8-3-1 in Raiders last 12 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game. Under is 6-1-1 in Raiders last 8 games following a straight up win. OAKLAND is 10-2 UNDER as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 40.3 ppg scored. OAKLAND is 11-2 UNDER versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 40.7 ppg scored. OAKLAND is 21-9 UNDER in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 44.4 ppg scored. NFL team where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (OAKLAND) - versus division opponents, off a home win are 89-42 L/36 seasons for a 68% conversion rate. Play on the UNDER |
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09-15-19 | Vikings v. Packers -3 | 16-21 | Win | 100 | 100 h 32 m | Show | |
This is a battle of NFC North competitors here this Sunday as the Minnesota Vikings and Green put their early season undefeated records on the line. Both are off wins , but the Packers looked better in their win than the Vikings who were out gained 345-269 but still managed to win vs Atlanta. Here today Im betting home field advantage will hold. Hey, I know the Packers have not beaten the Vikings since the 2016 season, but that means this crowd and the Packers are going to be up for this tilt and play with a lot of energy. Note: Rodgers is 23-6-1 SU in his career in home division games, and 11-0-1 SU in the first 6 games of the season at home vs division rivals. We all know how proud Aaron Rodgers is and how much pride this franchise has as a whole. Its early and I could change my mind, based as the season progresses, but there seems to be something special abut this group of Cheese Heads, and for now Im betting on that to be on full display here today. Minnesota has only won 2 of their L/11 road openers vs division opponents.Vikings are 1-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.Home team is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings. Play on the Green Bay Packers to cover |
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09-15-19 | Cowboys v. Redskins OVER 46.5 | 31-21 | Win | 100 | 53 h 23 m | Show | |
These long time rivals Washington and Dallas saw alot of yards get accumulated in their week 1 games. The Redskins combined for 834 combined yards, and the Cowboys combined for a whopping 964 combined yards. Im betting on more of the same non stop action this week when these teams go Helmut to Helmut. Note:These teams in their L/7 meetings have seen a combined average of 51.4 ppg go on the board with 6 of the 7 games eclipsing the total. Gruden is 7-0 OVER after gaining 350 or more passing yards in last game as the coach of WASHINGTON with a combined average of 54 ppg going on the scoreboard. All game 2 NFL road favorites who scored 35 or more pts in Game One like Dallas have gone a perfect 7-0 OVER dating back 10 seasons! NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (WASHINGTON) - poor passing defense from last season - allowed 7 or more passing yards/attempt, in conference games are 45-21 OVER L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors. NFL Road teams against the total (DALLAS) - off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival, in the first month of the season are 68-34 OVER L/36 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors. Play OVER |
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09-15-19 | Seahawks v. Steelers -3.5 | 28-26 | Loss | -109 | 51 h 4 m | Show | |
The Steelers were embarrassed last week vs the New England Pats by a score of 33-3 in their road opener and now they will be out looking for redemption in front of their home town fans this Sunday. No pro likes to be embarrassed and Ben Rothlisberger is a prime example of this , winning and covering 8 straight SU/ATS after losing by 18 or more points. Im betting the Steelers bounce back here vs a Seattle team that is just 2-12 ATS and 1-12-1 SU L/13 road openers dating back to the 2005 campaign. The last two times these 2 teams met here in Pittsburgh the Steelers won 24-0 and 21-0 and another strong effort is on todays agenda. PITTSBURGH is 108-79 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992. NFL Favorites (PITTSBURGH) - after trailing in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half are 59-27 . ATS L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Pittsburgh Steelers to cover |
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09-12-19 | Bucs v. Panthers UNDER 49.5 | 20-14 | Win | 100 | 10 h 48 m | Show | |
Both these teams lost their opening games, but it must be noted that during the L/6 seasons the UNDER is 9-1 in all Game 2s with home favorites of 3 or more points when both sides are coming off a SU loss . Note: Both teams we blasted for 31 and 30 points respectively which makes for a recency bias on this total. Note: During the 2018 campaign, the UNDER was dominant cashing 12 of 13 times when both teams gave up m 30 or more pts in their previous game, when the Total is within the parameters of 42 to 53 points. Carolina is also 3-21 under L/24 as division home chalk and have gone under 3 straight times after allowing 30 or more points. TB has gone under in 9 of their L/11 as 6 or more point dogs. t must be noted that Bruce AriansTB QB guru is getting set to help out his talented QB Winston cut down on turnovers and realize his potential as the No. 1 overall pick from the 2015 draft by running the ball more effectively.With second-year pro Ronald Jones II leading the way, Tampa Bay rushed for 121 yards in last week's loss and will once again be utilized to make this into a grinding type affair vs a Carolina team that has proven itself less than explosive over the last few seasons. These two teams have gone under 5 of the L/6 times they have met . Average Totals line: 49. The Average combined points per game clicked in at 39.3 ppg. Play UNDER |
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09-09-19 | Broncos v. Raiders +3 | 16-24 | Win | 100 | 102 h 16 m | Show | |
The betting public are starting to be sold on the Broncos, who with QB Joe Flacco now in the fold and Vic Fangio back as the defensive ordinator are considered possible play off contenders . However, the Raiders despite of being expected to be without suspended star Antonio Brown for this game are being looked upon as bad bets here this week after starting as 3 point favs . However in my usual contrarian fashion I now see some value in a situation this is being over blown. Quite honestly Brown has been a distraction to this team since being acquired and his absence may not be a bad thing. Broncos are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 vs. AFC.Broncos are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 road games.Broncos are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 vs. AFC West.Broncos are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 Monday games.Broncos are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.Broncos are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games on grass.Broncos are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games in September. Home team is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings. DENVER is 7-18 ATS in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons. Play on Oakland to cover |
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09-09-19 | Texans v. Saints OVER 52 | 28-30 | Win | 100 | 9 h 42 m | Show | |
This might seem like a public leaning total , but according to my projections this combined score here this Monday night between the Texans and their hosts the explosive Saints should breach this number. Note: Brees has thrown 37 scoring passes in 17 career Kickoff Weekend games, the most of any quarterback. I expect the Saints to light the scoreboard up here tonight and for the Texans to have no choice but to open things up behind quarterback Deshaun Watson, the first player to throw for at least 4,000 yards and 25 touchdowns while rushing for 500 yards and five scores in a season and respond with some fireworks of their own in a tilt that Im betting eclipses this total. The Saints are 4-0-1 OVER L/5 games on turf on Monday night dating back 5 seasons with a combined average score eclipsing the total by more than 10 ppg. Over is 5-0 in Saints last 5 games in Week 1. Play OVER |
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09-09-19 | Texans v. Saints -6.5 | 28-30 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 26 m | Show | |
The Texans had a good record in 2018 but it was all smoke and mirrors and they lost in the play offs in humiliating fashion by a 21-7 count vs the Colts as chalk, barely mustering a fight and now this season Im betting things will not get much better, starting tonight against explosive New Orleans Saints. The bottom line here is that the Texans just don't have the firepower to hang with the Saints in their home Opener on prime time TV where the Saints will want to start to with a bang after last seasons horrific officiating call that was partially responsible for eliminating them from the play offs. Note: Week one underdogs like the Texans of at least two or more points are 0-16 ATS/SU L/16 when they were beaten by 12 or more points ATS in their first playoff game last season with the average margin loss coming by 13.4 ppg. I know the Saints have lost their L/5 openers but all good and bad things must eventually come to an end. Texans are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 road games.Texans are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.Texans are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 Monday games. Favorite is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.Home team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings. Play on the New Orleans Saints to cover |
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09-08-19 | Steelers +6 v. Patriots | 3-33 | Loss | -120 | 34 h 11 m | Show | |
New England willed their way to a Super Bowl championship last season , but in no way shape or form were they as over powering during the reg season as many might have thought, and now the departure of Gronk , Bradys main downfield target will see the team Im betting slowly adjust to his absence. Tonight Im also betting on Roethlisberger and company to make a game of this here at Gillette Stadium. Note: Big Ben is 35-18-2 ATS career as a underdog in the NFL and has won 30 of those games SU. Meanwhile, the Pats have failed to cover 8 of their L/11 at home under the Sunday night lights. Tomlin is 30-19 ATS as an underdog as the coach of PITTSBURGH. The Steelers are 7-1 ATS since Dec 13, 2015 as a road dog. The Steelers are 4-0 ATS L/4 as a dog. NFL Favorites (NEW ENGLAND) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 2 or more straight wins are 23-51 ATS L/10 seasons for a 69% go against conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Pittsburgh Steelers to cover |
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09-08-19 | 49ers v. Bucs OVER 49.5 | 31-17 | Loss | -120 | 101 h 35 m | Show | |
Bucs defense allowed 29 ppg last season and Im not expecting a miraculous bounce back season even though Bruce Arians is now on board. The lousy pass rush wont be able to challenge ,Jimmy Garoppolo and Im betting the now healthy QB will smash a still susceptible secondary. Meanwhile, James Winston despite of being highly inconsistent is a very capable passer, and he will be up the challenge here on the road this week, behind a speedy group of wide receivers. Over is 4-1 in 49ers last 5 games in September.Over is 5-0 in Buccaneers last 5 games in September. TB 8-2 OVER as fav/dog 3 or less. Play OVER |
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09-08-19 | Colts v. Chargers OVER 43.5 | 24-30 | Win | 100 | 128 h 45 m | Show | |
No Andrew Luck at QB for the Indianapolis Colts, no problem. With a revamped offence engineered by offensive coordinator Nick Sirianni, and a offensive line that is uptrending, the interim QBs should do just fine and points production should not be the problem many pundits might anticipate. Players like RB Marlon Mack who rushed for 900 yards and nine touchdowns last season and , T.Y. Hilton who produced 1,200 receiving yards in 14 games, and tight end Eric Ebron led all NFL tight ends with 13 touchdowns is an explosive group who can do lots of damage and quickly. The Colts D, is still a work in progress, so they may also allow a fair amount of points and will need to be a pedal to the metal type offensive side to be competitive. Meanwhile, Chargers star QB Phillip Rivers will continue to put points on the board, especially with targets like receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams in the fold. Today against a susceptible Colts secondary this Im betting will become obvious, and will overall help us see a combined score that goes over the total. Over is 4-1 in Colts last 5 games in Week 1Over is 4-0 in Chargers last 4 games in September.Over is 4-0 in Chargers last 4 games in Week 1. Play OVER |
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09-08-19 | Bengals v. Seahawks OVER 44 | 20-21 | Loss | -110 | 44 h 35 m | Show | |
The Seahawks were the NFL’s top rushing team last season, averaging 160 yards a contest and Im betting they will just explosive this season which will set up their passing game behind the arm of Russell Wilson and an over all increase in ppg production. Meanwhile, the Cincinnati Bengals were smashed for 137.8 rushing yards a game last season, and I expect there will be no immediate fixes for their defensive issues be a broken damn. The Bengals only saving grace will be the big red machine QB Andy Dalton who can be dangerous when in a groove. Im expecting Dalton to be very impactful here in new HC Taylor new offensive schemes. Over is 5-0 in Bengals last 5 games in September. Over is 4-1-1 in Bengals last 6 games on fieldturf. Over is 7-2 in Bengals last 9 games in Week 1. Over is 4-0 in Seahawks last 4 games overall.Over is 5-1 in Seahawks last 6 games on fieldturf. Over is 4-1 in Seahawks last 5 home games.Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings. Carroll is 27-11 OVER in non-conference games as the coach of SEATTLE with a combined average of 48.2 ppg scored. Play OVER |
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09-08-19 | Chiefs v. Jaguars UNDER 52.5 | 40-26 | Loss | -109 | 169 h 3 m | Show | |
The high octane offence of the KC Chiefs behind phenom Patrick Mahomes comes into the heat and humidity of Jacksonville this Sunday in a game that I have pegged to stay on the low side of a public leaning total. Im betting Jacksonville has had sufficient time to study this explosive group, and behind a top tier D, will slow the Chiefs here ( at least enough to keep their Chiefs output to reasonable levels). Meanwhile, Im also betting it will take time for the Jags, to jell offensively, thanks to their new parts, (QB Nick Foles) and for the Chiefs D, to be much improved over last seasons hands off version. ( Changed form a 3-4 to 4-3 scheme) Add to that a muggy Sunday environment we have a more methodical game than many might expect and a lower combined score than the public is counting on. The Jags L/13 home games since the 2017 season, have seen them allow an average of just 12.7 points per game and their offence has average just 19.9 points per game. Reid is 12-4 UNDER against AFC South division opponents as the coach of KANSAS CITY with a combined average of 43 ppg going on the board.Reid in 74 games as a favorite as the coach of KANSAS CITY has seen a combined average score of 45.1 ppg scored. Under is 5-0 in Jaguars last 5 home games.Under is 7-1 in Jaguars last 8 games on grass.Under is 4-1 in Jaguars last 5 games overall.Under is 16-7 in Jaguars last 23 vs. AFC. Play on the UNDER |
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09-08-19 | Rams v. Panthers +3 | 30-27 | Push | 0 | 75 h 17 m | Show | |
Super Bowl teams like the Rams that lost have been bad bets in their followup campaign are just 17-31-1 ATS in non division road games as chalk dating back 19 seasons.It must also be noted that Defending Super Bowl loser in Game One of the season if they are away and facing a non-conference opponent are 1-15 ATS L/16 seasons. The Rams qualify here under those perimeters. Meanwhile, Carolina is according to my preseason power rankings a very under rated team that deserves respect as home dogs against any team in this league.Carolina is 5-0 ATS L/5 at home in this series vs the Rams and gets my support here today. Panthers are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 home games.Rams are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games in Week 1. Take the points with Carolina to cover |
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09-08-19 | Rams v. Panthers UNDER 50 | 30-27 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 23 m | Show | |
The Panthers have gone UNDER in their in their last 7 opening games of a NFL season going under the number by 14 ppg and we all know how conservative this team is out of the gate and overall general terms. I know they will face an explosive offence here today, but last season the Rams played much more conservatively on the road then at home, going under in their L/5 road games, and Im betting that trend continues here today as they make the long arduous trip from the west coast to the east coast. It must be noted that week one none division road chalk of -2 or more are 4-24-1 UNDER dating back 20 seasons . These teams have gone under in 5 of their L/6 meetings with a combined average of 30.2 ppg going on the board and another lower scoring game will be on todays agenda according to my projections . The Rams have gone under in 6 of their L/7 away with a 50 or more point total. The rams have the Saints up next week ( 0-7 UNDER L/7before the Saints). Rams have gone under in 6 of their L/7 as road favs -2 or more. Panthers have gone under in 6 of their L/7 with a total of 48 or more. Play UNDER |
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09-05-19 | Packers v. Bears UNDER 47 | 10-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 12 m | Show | |
The public seems to love this game to go over , but the public has a tendency to not delve to deeply into statistical data and trends. In preseason the Packers did not play their star QB Rodgers as well as two other key offensive weapons Aaron Jones and Jamal Williams so Im betting it will take some time for the Packers to become cohesive offensively here tonight , especially considering they will be facing a Chicago Bears team that was first in weighted D last season, ranking first in pass efficiency and 2nd and run efficiency. Meanwhile, the Packers Defence, was upgraded in the off season, using their first two round picks to pick up linebacker Rashan Gary and safety Darnell Savage, and then also acquiring free-agent linebackers Za’Darius Smith and Preston Smith to bolster a tough hard nosed group. Im expecting barring injuries for the Packers D to be stringent this season and tonight. Considering Bears QB Trubisky is getting a reputation for being sloppy with the ball , his play calling maybe limited by the coaches, and a more conservative game 1 plan could be in the cards. Note: The Bears offence ranked 30th in the league in pace last season, so "slow as she goes" could once be the mantra here tonight. Under is 5-1 in Packers last 6 games on a natural surface.Under is 4-1 in Packers last 5 vs. NFC. Under is 5-0 in Bears last 5 games overall dating back to las season.Under is 4-0 in Bears last 4 games on grass.Under is 5-0 in Bears last 5 vs. NFC.The L/10 times these teams have met the average combined score has in clicked in at 44.9 ppg. Bears home games have gone under 58% of the time since the 2016 campaign. Nagy in 6 games versus division opponents as the coach of CHICAGO has seen a combined average score of 43.7 ppg scored. NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (CHICAGO) - good rushing defense from last season - allowed 90 or less rushing yards/game, in conference games are 53-22 UNDER since 1983 for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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02-03-19 | Patriots v. Rams +3 | 13-3 | Loss | -115 | 157 h 39 m | Show | |
Yes, QB Tom Brady maybe the greatest NFL QB of our generation, and maybe of all time and his HC Bellichck one of the top coaching minds in all of football. But Im still going to pull the trigger on the unthinkable, and go with the Rams here this week at a +FG. Yes, even despite of watching Tom Terrific put on another dramatic show stopper a couple of weeks ago in the championship game to get the Pats to yet another Super Bowl. I also know how fortunate the Rams are to be here thanks in part to a blown call. However, I still feel that Brady and his side kick Gronkowski have slowed down enough to not be as intimidating as they once were, and that the Pats D, is very beatable, as was the case in last seasons Super Bowl vs Philadelphia. Plus the Rams greater body of work this season, was actually superior to that of the Pats, and many at the start of this season including myself saw this LA team as a big time Super Bowl contender and deserving champs behind a deep talented team on both sides of the ball. So here we are and Im not going to waver here in my opinion, and will take a direct stance taking points with the underdog this Super Bowl Sunday in a neutral field environment. Hey its never easy going against the tide of early money, but it must be noted that the underdog has covered 9 of the L/11 Super Bowls and won 8 of those straight up. Im looking for recent history to repeat itself here as I go against the early money. The Rams are 8-0 against AFC opponents since head coach Sean McVay took over the team in 2017. The Patriots have averaged just 23.3 points per game on the road this season, which was more than 10 points lower (33.8 PPG) than what they averaged at Foxboro. They had the second worst home/away scoring difference this season, only ranking behind the Oakland Raiders . Play on the LA Rams to cover |
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01-20-19 | Patriots +3 v. Chiefs | 37-31 | Win | 100 | 104 h 15 m | Show | |
Everyone loves how explosive the KC Chiefs are offensively, but the Pats behind a future HOF QB and coach are a solid wager here as underdogs. In each of the last three games Tom Brady has started in which the Patriots were a dog by a field goal or less... the Pats have won by DDs. NEW ENGLAND is 15-1 ATS after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game over the last 3 seasons which was the case last week. Patriots are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 playoff games and are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.KANSAS CITY is 3-13 ATS in playoff games since 1992 and s 1-9 ATS after gaining 400 or more total yards in 3 consecutive games. NFL team vs the money line (NEW ENGLAND) - good team (outgain opp. by 40-100 YPG) against an average team (+/- 40 YPG) after 8+ games, after gaining 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 44-7 SU L/5 seasons and 11-1 SU this season! Play on New England to cover |
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01-20-19 | Patriots v. Chiefs OVER 56 | 37-31 | Win | 100 | 22 h 40 m | Show | |
Future HOF QB Tom Brady, , threw for 343 yards and a touchdown on 34 of 44 passing against the Chargers last week to advance to the championship game and had nearly identical numbers against the Chiefs when they played back in October. Im betting on the Pats doing a boat load full of damage again, and for the KC Chiefs behind the best young arm in football Patrick Mahomes to also light up the board in a game I have pegged to go over the number. Mahomes could become the fourth quarterback, including Brady, to pass for 5,000 yards and reach the Super Bowl in the same season. In game theory, an outcome is a situation which results from a combination of player's strategies. Every combination of strategies (one for each player) is an outcome of the game. A primary purpose of game theory is to determine which outcomes are stable according to a solution concept. Thus usually the most likely explanation and most likely scenario is the most likely outcome. Over is 6-1 in Patriots last 7 playoff games.Over is 5-0 in Chiefs last 5 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings. NFL team where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (NEW ENGLAND) - an excellent offensive team (27 or more PPG) against a poor defensive team (23-27 PPG) after 8+ games, after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored are 26-9 OVER L/10 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. NFL team where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (KANSAS CITY) - in a game involving two mistake-free teams (1.25 or less turnovers/game committed) are 68-30 OVER L/10 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. My projections estimate 62 combined points going on the board or more. Play on the OVER |
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01-20-19 | Rams +3.5 v. Saints | 26-23 | Win | 100 | 71 h 45 m | Show | |
NFC Championship Game The Rams. have played some of their best ball on the road going 14-3 SU away from the Coliseum under HC McVay, dating back to last season and deserve our respect here as underdogs vs the New Orleans Saints. The Rams D has been solid on the road this season, allowing an average of 19.9 ppg, while it must be noted that the Saints offence has looked inconsistent down the stretch and have scored 14 or less points in 3 of their L/6 games, and only twice scored more than 20 points. With that said, Im betting on the Rams keeping Drew Bree's and company to a minimum output while they themselves do enough damage to possibly pull off the upset and more importantly cover the number. This championship round of the play offs has seen 13 lucky upset underdog winners since the 2000 campaign and I wont be surprised if the Rams add their names to that list after today. NFL Road teams (LA RAMS) - excellent passing team (265 or better PY/game) against a poor passing defence (230-265 PY/game), after allowing 7 or more passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 34-8 ATS L/10 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Rams to cover |
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01-13-19 | Eagles v. Saints UNDER 50.5 | 14-20 | Win | 100 | 104 h 44 m | Show | |
NFC Divisional Playoffs Alot of pundits were concerned with the way the Eagles defence played this season, but in their L/2 staunch physical efforts they shut out their opponent in their final regular season game , and then allowed a strong Bears team to score just 15 points last weekin their Wild Card affair . Im betting Phillies under rated D stands tall again against, a New Orleans offence that actually struggled quite bit at the end of the season procuring 14 points or less in 3 of their L/5 games. This I expect will see a much lower scoring affair then lines-makers and public are expecting. Note: I know the Saints walloped the Eagles back in November putting 48 pints on the board, but the defending champs learned alot about their opponents offence that day and will be ready for a much better effort in the rematch. NFL Teams that won more than ten games the previous regular season like Philadelphia are 0-27-1 UNDER by an average 9.96 ppg when playing their second straight road game with a combined average of 38.1 ppg scored. Note: PHILADELPHIA is 11-1 UNDER off 2 consecutive road wins with a combined average of 35.5 ppg scored. NFL team against the total (NEW ORLEANS) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (18-23 PPG), after allowing 30 points or more last game are 42-14 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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01-13-19 | Chargers v. Patriots -4 | 28-41 | Win | 100 | 4 h 5 m | Show | |
AFC Divisional Playoffs NE super star future HOF QB Brady is 19-3 SU at home in the playoffs, including 11-1 SU and Divisional Round tilts, and Im betting he gets another win here vs the Chargers here this Sunday afternoon in Fox-borough. He has also won all 7 meetings SU vs Rivers, and must not be underestimated despite of the aging process in his ability to lead his team to a convincing victory here again at home and get us the cover. Note: Brady is 10-0-1 ATS in playoff victories when not favored by more than 6 points. NEW ENGLAND is 15-4 ATS versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.65 or more yards/play over the last 3 seasons. NEW ENGLAND is 11-1 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better over the last 3 seasons NFL Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (LA CHARGERS) - off 2 consecutive road wins, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 5-26 L/35 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. New England to cover |
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01-12-19 | Colts +5.5 v. Chiefs | 13-31 | Loss | -105 | 79 h 58 m | Show | |
The Colts enter this game extremely underrated according to my matchup stats and power rankings, and this is evident by winning the stats battles 13 of their L/14 games overall. However, the books are playing to public sentiment knowing how much the public loves the Chiefs and their style of play, and have posted a over valued line on the board that favours the Colts in my humble opinion. It must be noted that the Chiefs did not play all that well down the stretch covering only once in their L/5 overall and have a history of ugly play off performances losing 8 straight ATS at home including 6 straight SU here at Arrowhead. With the Colts Andrew Luck 2-0 SU at Arrowhead in his career is every bit as good as Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes and more experienced ,I expect a Colts team that is 7-1 SU/ATS here in this venue to have an edge getting points . INDIANAPOLIS is 8-1 ATS in road games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better over the last 3 seasons.KANSAS CITY is 2-13 ATS in playoff games since 1992. NFL team vs the money line (INDIANAPOLIS) - good team (outgain opp. by 40-100 YPG) against an average team (+/- 40 YPG) after 8+ games, after gaining 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 43-6 SU L/5 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Indianapolis to cover |
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01-06-19 | Eagles +6 v. Bears | 16-15 | Win | 100 | 148 h 46 m | Show | |
The Philadelphia Eagles had to over come alot of struggles this season, to have a chance to defend their super bowl title and make it to the play offs. But now a new season begins here in the play offs vs a public sweet heart that has a lineup filled with players that generally has very little post season NFL experience. I know the Bears had a tremendous season, but under pressure vs a side that knows how to win big games Im betting they are in trouble. Public money poured in on the Bears from the out set of the opening line, but sharp money has stormed back behind the Eagles and with that I recommend we take the points here. PHILADELPHIA is 8-1 ATS versus good rushing defenses - allowing 90 or less rushing yards/game over the last 3 seasons. NFL Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (PHILADELPHIA) - good passing team - with a completion pct of 60% or better, after gaining 6.75 or more passing yards/attempt in 4 straight games are 26-8 ATS L/10 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Philadelphia Eagles to cover |
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01-06-19 | Chargers v. Ravens -1 | 23-17 | Loss | -125 | 143 h 21 m | Show | |
Ravens league leading defence matches up well vs the Chargers offence as was evident only two weeks when they beat the Chargers in LA by a 22-10 count. After some early public money came in on the Chargers the line sits at around 2.5 and is a viable option if we are backing Baltimore at home where they are 6-2 this season. LA CHARGERS is 0-6 ATS after playing their last game on the road this season. Ravens are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 playoff games.Ravens are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Wildcard games. NFL Home favorites vs. the money line (BALTIMORE) - mistake-free team (1.25 or less TO/game committed) against a team with 1.25 or more TO/game forced, after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better are 54-5 SU L/10 seasons for a 92% conversion rate and a perfect 9-0 this season for a 100% conversion rate. NFL Favorites (BALTIMORE) - after having won 3 out of their last 4 games against opponent hot team, after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games are 30-8 ATSL/10 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Baltimore Ravens to cover |
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01-05-19 | Seahawks +2.5 v. Cowboys | 22-24 | Win | 100 | 84 h 20 m | Show | |
Seattles HC Pete Carroll always gets my respect, and in a key game like this Im betting his football knowledge and coaching abilities will help his hard nosed blue collar group come out on top and more importantly get us the cover vs a inconsistent Dallas crew. Dallas is 2-9 SU and 3-8 ATS record in the playoffs since 1997.Carroll is 14-5 ATS against NFC East division opponents as the coach of SEATTLE. Carroll is 37-23 ATS as an underdog as the coach of SEATTLE. HC Garrett is 28-40 ATS in home games as the coach of DALLAS.Garrett is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in home games vs. poor kickoff coverage teams, allowing 24 or more yards per return in the second half of the season as the coach of DALLAS. SEATTLE is 7-1 ATS vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better this season and is 8-2 ATS versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.65 or more yards/play this season. NFL Road teams (SEATTLE) - mistake-free team (1.25 or lessTO/G committed) vs a team with 1.25 or less TO/G forced after 8+ games, after 4 consecutive games where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 29-9 L/36 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Seattle to cover |
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01-05-19 | Colts +2 v. Texans | 21-7 | Win | 100 | 98 h 36 m | Show | |
Houstons strength is stopping the run, but teams that can pass like the Colts are a more difficult type of opponent for the Texans. In the last meeting between these teams, Houston couldn't slow down Colts quarterback Andrew Luck and wide receiver T.Y. Hilton. Hilton had nine receptions for 199 yards, and Luck passed for 399 yards and two TDs in Indy's 24-21 win in Houston. A repeat type performance is not out of the question here and actually a high probability outcome according to my projections. HOUSTON is 1-9 ATS vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing 7.5 or less yards per return in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. O'Brien is 0-6 ATS in home games after outgaining opp by 100 or more total yards in their previous game as the coach of HOUSTON. NFL team vs the money line (INDIANAPOLIS) - good team (outgain opp. by 40-100 YPG) against an average team (+/- 40 YPG) after 8+ games, after gaining 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 42-6 SU L/5 seasons and a perfect 9-0 this season! Play on the Indianapolis to cover |
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12-30-18 | Colts v. Titans UNDER 43.5 | 33-17 | Loss | -109 | 84 h 14 m | Show | |
This game involving the Indianapolis Colts (9-6) and their hosts the Tennessee Titans (9-6) highlights a situation where which ever team wins goes to the play offs and the other to no no land. Im expecting a conservative game from both sides. Titans QB Marcus Mariota is a UNDECIDED this week after leaving his Week 16 win vs Washington with a nagging neck-elbow injury that has bothered him all season long. If he plays he will be less then 100% and if his below average backup Blaine Gabbert gets the call.Either way Im expecting HC Vrabel to be conservative in his approach to this important game and mainly use the ground game to move the chains in an effort to keep Andrew Luck off the field for long chunks of time and get him out of his flow. The Colts coach Frank Reich’s teams usually grind along with their opponents in games like this and look for the big play somewhere along the way. It must also be noted that the Colts in the past when they go against a team that averages more than 27.5 rushing attempts per game and the total is less than 50, they have gone under 14-straight straight times . INDIANAPOLIS is 7-0 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 38.3 pig scored.INDIANAPOLIS is 13-2 UNDER in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 37.4 ppg scored. NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (TENNESSEE) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 28 or more points, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 23-5 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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12-30-18 | Eagles v. Redskins +7 | 24-0 | Loss | -110 | 125 h 55 m | Show | |
The Eagles need to win and they need the Bears to beat the Vikings to get into the playoffs. Needless to say, the Eagles need only worry about taking care of their business, here. However, Im betting Washington will not be so willing a participant in letting the Eagles get a free pass in their home finale and will cherish the opportunity to play spoilers vs the defending Super Bowl champs. . The Eagles have struggled as visitors this season overall as they are just 3-4 on the road, with the average point differential clicking in at -3.2. Eagles 23.1 Opp 26.3. Im recommending we go on the take . Eagles are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win.Eagles are 2-5 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.Eagles are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.Eagles are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 vs. NFC.Eagles are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 vs. NFC East.Eagles are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.Eagles are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Redskins are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.Redskins are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games on grass.Redskins are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games.Redskins are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a straight up loss. WASHINGTON is 17-3 ATS L/20 versus inconsistent defensive teams - allowing 6 or less yards/play in the second half of the season. WASHINGTON is 22-6 ATS vs. excellent passing teams averaging 260 or more passing yards/game after 8+ games. PHILADELPHIA is 2-11 ATS versus struggling defensive teams - allowing 6 or more yards/play over the last 3 seasons. Play on the Washington Redskins to cover |