Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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07-24-16 | Angels v. Astros OVER 9.5 | Top | 3-13 | Win | 110 | 6 h 27 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Game #923/924 - Slugfest Smash - *10* Top Play OVER 9 or 9.5 in Houston vs Los Angeles Angels @ 2:10 ET Sunday - The Astros Mike Fiers is coming back down to reality after pitching better than expected for much of the first half of the season. There is a mental aspect to pitching that is extremely important and I would not be surprised to see Fiers really struggle here. He got into altercations both with his manager as well as teammates after being taken out of his last start during the 4th inning. The fact is he deserved to get yanked from the outing and it was his 2nd straight rough outing. Now he faces an Angels team that rocked him for 7 earned runs in less than 4 innings back in May. That said, don't be surprised if Fiers has another short and ugly outing here as it is not the right lineup for him to "get right" against. The Angels will have pitching issues of their own in this one as Tim Lincecum gets the ball. He gave up 5 earned runs in less than 5 innings of work when he faced the Astros in late June. Also, Linceum has simply been awful overall this season as his ERA could easily be higher than the 6.59 it currently sits at as he has been hit at an ugly .370 clip on the year. That is not a misprint, opponents are hitting .370 against Lincecum on the season! Look for both pitchers to get rocked here as the over goes to 13-5 in Fiers' starts this season. *10* OVER in Houston |
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07-23-16 | Rays v. A's OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 47 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Game #977/978 - MLB Game of the Month - *10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Oakland vs Tampa Bay @ 9:05 ET Saturday - The over is 7-1 in the Rays Drew Smyly's road starts this season. He comes into this match-up with the A's struggling badly. Smyly has given up at least 4 earned runs in 8 of his last 9 starts! The southpaw is not showing any signs of improving either as he has walked 5 while striking out just 3 in his last 2 starts. Smyly has given up 22 hits (including 4 homers) in his 16 career innings against the Athletics. The A's will have Kendall Graveman on the mound for this one. Graveman faced the Rays in May this season and he gave up 4 earned runs on 6 hits and 3 walks while striking out just 1 in less than 6 innings of work. Graveman has a losing record in night games this season and opponents have hit him at a .293 clip in night games on the year. The Rays lineup comes into this game with plenty of confidence. Although they were shutout last night, Tampa Bay previously scored an average of 7.4 runs per game in their last 5 games. A road trip to hitter-friendly Coors Field helped the Rays lineup get back on track and they'll respond after the shutout loss yesterday. In games this season where Tampa Bay is a road dog of +100 to +125, they over is 11-3 on the year. The over is 17-6 in A's games against left-handed starters this season. *10* OVER in Oakland |
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07-23-16 | Twins v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 | Top | 11-9 | Win | 100 | 13 h 4 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Game #973/974 - Slugfest Smash - *10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in Boston vs Minnesota @ 7:10 ET Saturday - After winning three straight games and averaging 9 runs per game, Boston had a frustrating effort at the plate last night and they'll make up for it Saturday. Facing the Twins Ricky Nolasco insures that! The Minnesota right-hander is off of a rare strong effort against the Tigers where he held them to 1 earned run in 6 innings of work even though he walked 3 and did not record a single strikeout. His strikeout numbers have been trending downward and, prior to the solid start against Detroit, Nolasco gave up 17 earned runs in his last 24 and 1/3 innings. Also, he has given up 58 hits in his last 43 innings on the mound. The Red Sox should pound this ultra-hittable veteran hurler. The Red Sox have David Price on the mound but the big name southpaw hasn't been living up to his reputation in many of his recent starts. Price has given up 44 hits in his last 30 and 1/3 innings. The Boston lefty has a 4.75 ERA during this stretch and the Twins will benefit from facing lefties in back to back starts as they faced Rodriguez yesterday. The over is 13-4 in Nolasco's starts this season and the Twins are 36-16 to the over in night games this season. Look for the Red Sox over to improve to 10-4 in Saturday games this season as they get back to their big hitting ways after yesterday's dismal effort at the plate. *10* OVER in Boston |
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07-22-16 | Angels +134 v. Astros | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
MLB Game #923 - Underdog Shocker Rickenbach *10* Top Play Los Angeles Angels +134 @ Houston @ 8:10 ET - Lance McCullers of the Astros has a solid 3.61 ERA on the season but also has a 1.64 WHIP. As evidenced by those statistics he has been quite fortunate. In his last two starts he has walked 8 in 9 and 1/3 innings of work so he is constantly having to work his way out of jams. The Astros have held the upper hand in this series this season but the Angels have enjoyed a recent surge that they should carry into this series and they also have Matt Shoemaker on the mound in the first game of the 3 game set. Shoemaker has given up 2 earned runs or less in 7 of his last 11 starts. He is coming off of an absolute gem against the White Sox as he shut them out and struck out 13 in his 9 innings of work versus the ChiSox. Shoemaker shutout the Astros over a solid 6 inning start 4 weeks ago. Although McCullers held the Angels to just 1 run in that match-up with Shoemaker, he did allow 6 hits plus walked 3 in less than 6 innings of work. The Astros have lost 4 of the last 6 starts that McCullers has made and he has struggled to work deep into games lately. Look for the Angels to win their 7th straight game and to make it three straight victories in Shoemaker starts. The Angels are 8-6 as a road dog of +125 to +150 and that has produced more than 5+ net games thanks to the positive returns of big dog action. I love this big dog spot with the better hurler on the mound and a red hot lineup backing him. The Angels have not only won 6 straight, they've scored at least 7 runs in 5 of those games. The Astros are off of a win but previously had gone just 3-4 in their last 7 games and averaged only 2 runs per game in the 4 losses. They are not hitting like LA is right now. *10* Los Angeles Angels Money Line |
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07-22-16 | Twins v. Red Sox OVER 10.5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
MLB Game #919/920 - Slugfest Smash Rickenbach *10* Top Play OVER 10.5 in Boston vs Minnesota @ 7:10 ET - These teams combined for 15 runs for an easy win for my Top Total yesterday and I expect a similar total to result today. Kyle Gibson of the Twins and Eduardo Rodriguez of the Red Sox square off tonight in Boston. The last time these hurlers faced these opponents it also was a match-up against each other and that game totaled 19 runs. Gibson gave up 5 runs in less than 6 innings and Rodriguez gave up 4 runs in less than 5 innings. Although Rodriguez had a strong start last week in his return from AAA, he did face a Yankees team that has often struggled this season against lefties. Also, Rodriguez managed only 1 strikeout in the game and I again expect plenty of contact against the southpaw tonight. With the wind blowing out at Fenway Park this evening and with Rodriguez being homer-prone this season, don't be surprised if the Twins get some dingers in this one. Minnesota has averaged 6 runs per game in their past dozen road games. As for the Red Sox, they are averaging 6 runs per game in their home games and they should have no trouble with the offerings of Gibson here. He has allowed 8 earned runs on 17 hits in the 11 innings of work spanning his last two starts. Gibson has a 6.75 ERA and 1.85 WHIP in his road start this year. The over is 16-9 in Twins games against left-handed starters this season and 36-15 in their night games this year. The over is 40-29 in Red Sox games against right-handed starters this season. *10* OVER 10.5 in Boston |
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07-21-16 | Tigers v. White Sox -122 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -122 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
Rickenbach Game #966 - Revenge Rout MLB *10* Top Play Chicago White Sox Money Line -122 vs Detroit @ 8:10 ET - Both starting pitchers in this match-up have some poor numbers on the season. But the difference is that Mike Pelfrey of the Tigers is certainly showing no signs of a turnaround while the White Sox James Shields is absolutely heading the right direction now. Pelfrey has allowed 4 earned runs or more in 4 of his last 6 starts. The damage for the veteran righty also could have been even worse as he has given up a ridiculous 40 hits in his last 24 and 1/3 innings. Pelfrey also is 1-5 with a 5.81 ERA in his career starts against the ChiSox. As for Shields, he has thrown 4 straight quality starts and has a stellar 1.59 ERA in these outings. He's facing a Tigers team that has been struggling at the plate for 2 weeks now. Detroit, in going 4-6 in their last 10 games, has averaged just 2.4 runs per game and only 7.2 hits per game. The White Sox have also certainly had their fair share of recent struggles but they do seem to have their sticks going again as they've now reached double digits in hits in three straight games. Facing the struggling Pelfrey should insure that the ChiSox stay hot at the plate. The Tigers are 1-4 this season in road games with a posted total of 10 or 10.5 runs. Detroit has taken 4 of the 6 meetings so far this season between these clubs and it's time for a little payback. I am forecasting (and fully expecting!) a "revenge rout" based on this pitching match-up. *10* CHICAGO WHITE SOX |
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07-21-16 | Twins v. Red Sox OVER 10 | Top | 2-13 | Win | 100 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
Rickenbach Game #963/964 - Slugfest Smash MLB *10* Top Play OVER 10 in Boston vs Minnesota @ 7:10 ET - The Red Sox finally got their sticks going again in yesterday's offensive onslaught against the Giants. I look for carry over of momentum for the BoSox lineup from that big victory right into tonight's game. Boston will be facing Tyler Duffey of the Twins and he has allowed at least 4 earned runs in 9 of his last 11 starts. Duffey will be opposed by knuckle-baller Steven Wright of the Red Sox who has hit a very tough stretch over the past month. Wright has given up 15 earned runs on 27 hits in the less than 22 innings of work spanning his last 4 outings. Minnesota will fare better against him than they did last month as they now get a quick second look at his offerings and he is in a downward cycle. Duffey was the opposing starter in that outing coincidentally and he got rocked for 6 earned runs on 10 hits in 5 and 1/3 innings of work. The over is 8-4 in all of Duffey's starts this season and 6-3 in all of Wright's home starts this year. The Twins scored 10 runs in their last 2 games at Detroit (both victories) so they have some momentum coming into Fenway Park. The over is 22-11 this season in Twins games when they are off of a win. Also, Minnesota is 35-15 to the over in night games this year. The Red Sox and Twins have played 3 games this season and none have stayed under the total. Look for the over to improve to 7-2 in Thursday BoSox games this season. *10* OVER in Boston |
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07-20-16 | Marlins v. Phillies UNDER 8 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 102 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
Rickenbach Divisional Game of the Month MLB *10* Top Play UNDER 8 in Philadelphia vs Miami @ 7:05 ET - The Phillies have been one of the streakiest teams in the league this season. They were hot early in the year and getting great pitching. Then the Phils started struggling and endured long losing stretches. Then they got hot again and even started winning games with their sticks. Now though they have reverted back to their season long struggles at the plate and I expect that to continue today. The Phillies are facing a southpaw and they rank last in the league against left-handed pitching for runs scored, home runs, and slugging percentage. That is out of all 30 teams in the majors, the Phillies are dead last. In the last 11 games for Philadelphia, only one has resulted in an over. The Phils have been getting good starting pitching again and that should continue today with Jeremy Hellickson on the mound. Each of his last 5 starts have stayed under the total and the Phillies righty has a solid 2.90 ERA during this stretch. He has held the Marlins to a 3.97 ERA in his 6 career starts against them and 5 of those 6 outings resulted in an under. 8 of the Marlins last 12 games have stayed under the total and Miami is also 10-4 to the under in Wednesday games this season. As a home dog of +100 to +125, the Phillies are 9-4 to the under this season. 12 of their 19 games against left-handed starters have resulted in unders this season. The Marlins have been held to 8 hits or less in 6 of their last 9 games. The Phils have been held to 5 hits or less in 3 straight games and 4 of their 5 games since the All Star Break. Wei-Yin Chen has a 1.11 WHIP on the road this season which is outstanding. His biggest problem recently has come via the long-ball but the Phillies have struggled to generate power against southpaws all season long. That sets this one up nicely for another pitchers' duel. *10* UNDER in Philadelphia |
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07-20-16 | Astros v. A's OVER 8.5 | Top | 7-0 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
Rickenbach Slugfest Smash MLB *10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Oakland vs Houston @ 3:35 ET - The Astros Doug Fister has had great success against the A's this season but Oakland will now be seeing him for the fourth time this year. Fister also was hit harder in his only start that was at Oakland this season and the other two starts were in Houston including a solid outing two weeks ago. Looking at Fister's other recent starts (his last three not against the A's) he has given up 12 earned runs on 22 hits in 16 and 1/3 innings. Look for more struggles for him here. The Athletics will have some pitching issues of their own here. Daniel Mengden gets the start and the right-hander is having an awful July. So far this month he has a 10.80 ERA and a 2.10 WHIP. Also, in his lone start against the Astros this season he was rocked for 6 earned runs in less than 5 innings of work. Yesterday's game between these divisional foes stayed under the total but that was just the 2nd under the Astros have had since the All Star Break and it was the first one for the A's since the break. The over is a perfect 4-0 in Mengden's last 4 starts. Also, the over is 23-13 in A's games against teams with a winning record this season. As a home dog of +100 to +125 Oakland is 7-3 to the over this season. As a road fave of -100 to -150 the Astros have gone 19-10 to the over this season. *10* OVER in Oakland |
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07-18-16 | Rays v. Rockies OVER 11.5 | Top | 4-7 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 24 m | Show |
Rickenbach Slugfest MLB *10* Top Play OVER 11.5 in Colorado vs Tampa Bay @ 8:40 ET - As a road dog of +100 to +125 the Rays are 10-2 to the over this season. The over is 6-2 in Tampa Bay's Monday games this year and the over is 8-2 in Rockies inter-league games this season. Colorado got shutout yesterday. The last 4 times they scored three runs or less they responded with a big effort at the plate each time averaging 9 runs per game in the process. The Rockies should have no problem with the offerings of the Rays Drew Smyly here. The Tampa Bay southpaw is an ugly 2-10 on the season and he has given up at least 4 earned runs per game in 7 of his last 8 starts! His ERA over this rough two month stretch is a 7.92 and going to hitter-friendly Coors Field is unlikely to help matters for Smyly! He'll be opposed by the Rockies Tyler Anderson tonight and the young southpaw has an impressive ERA this season but he's been quite fortunate. He has an amazing 2.63 ERA at home this year despite getting hit at a .313 clip at Coors Field! Anderson has given up 25 hits in less than 18 innings of work spanning his last 3 home starts. It catches up with him here. The Rays have a .471 slugging percentage against lefties this season and that is #1 in the American League. The Rockies have a ridiculous .533 slugging percentage in home games this season which is far and away the best mark in the majors. This one gets crazy EARLY in the thin air of Denver. *10* OVER in Colorado |
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07-18-16 | Marlins v. Phillies +180 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
Rickenbach Underdog *10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line +180 vs Miami @ 7:05 ET - The Phillies are off of a shutout loss and that is significant in terms of huge home dog value here because the Phillies have not lost back to back games in 4 weeks! Philadelphia should respond here and I like the "live arm" of Aaron Nola with a lot of extra rest as he's fully refreshed mentally and physically with all the time off. The Phillies right-hander had his last start skipped in the rotation and then of course had extra time off because of the All Star Break. With all the extra rest, Nola will come up with a big effort here against Miami. He had been rock solid and the Phillies had won 7 of his last 9 starts before he hit this tough stretch. Though it may seem "tough" to fade Jose Fernandez of the Marlins, he has struggled in recent road outings. Miami has lost each of the last two road starts that Fernandez has made and he was pounded for 13 runs (10 earned) in less than 12 innings of work spanning those two starts. Also, Fernandez has allowed 8 earned runs in the 10 innings of work spanning his last two starts at Philadelphia. Look for the Phillies to improve to 8-0 their last 8 when off of a loss. Miami is 16-24 in divisional games this season and I see them dropping to 0-4 the last 4 times they have been installed as a road favorite of -175 or more. Insane home dog line value in this one. *10* PHILADELPHIA |
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07-17-16 | Red Sox -115 v. Yankees | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -115 | 22 h 37 m | Show |
Rickenbach Revenge Rout *10* Top Play Boston Red Sox -115 @ New York Yankees @ 8:05 ET - The Yankees showed yesterday, by not being able to hit a struggling lefty (Eduardo Rodriguez) that they simply stink against left-handed pitching. No excuse for their performance at the plate yesterday and it just proves how bad they are against southpaws. To not hit Rodriguez was insane. The Yanks are now 11-17 in their games against left-handed starters this season and one of the rare victories, surprisingly, came against Boston's David Price. Of course that makes this a revenge spot for Price and he has settled down a lot since his early season inconsistencies. Price has struck out 10 in 3 straight starts and has a solid 2.82 ERA during this stretch. Additionally, he has produced 10 quality starts in his last 12 outings since tough back to back outings against the Yankees in early May. You can bet, literally, that Price has been chomping at the bit for this rematch. He'll be opposed by the Yankees Masahiro Tanaka and that keys this play. He has struggled in 2 of his last 3 starts overall and also in 2 of his last 3 home starts. In fact, Tanaka has a 5.05 ERA in home starts this season. The Yanks right-hander has given up at least 4 earned runs in 2 of his last 3 starts against Boston and simply is not in good current form heading into this game. With the loss yesterday, the Yankees are now 10-19 in divisional games this season. The Red Sox are 8-1 in their last 9 games. Look for Price to get his revenge this evening. *10* BOSTON Sunday |
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07-17-16 | Blue Jays v. A's OVER 8 | Top | 5-3 | Push | 0 | 18 h 3 m | Show |
Rickenbach Slugfest MLB *10* Top Play OVER 8 in Oakland vs Toronto @ 4:05 ET Sunday - This will be a contrarian play and I am taking advantage of the early line move here from an 8.5 down to an 8. Certainly I understand the move based on this match-up of crafty left-handed pitchers but there is plenty of reason to expect a lot of offense in this one. Afternoon games at Oakland are a little more hitter-friendly as you don't have the same dense night air you have in night games along the West Coast. Additionally, the wind is going to be blowing out at Oakland Coliseum Sunday afternoon. The over is 16-5 this season in Oakland's games against left-handed starters as they have hit southpaws well this season. Sunday they face the Blue Jays J.A. Happ who gave up 5 earned runs in 5 innings in his most recent road start. Also, Happ has given up 3 earned runs in each of his last 2 starts against the Athletics. Rich Hill gets the start for the Blue Jays tonight and he allowed 3 earned runs in his only recent start against the Blue Jays. Also, although he has impressive numbers this season Hill has been dealing with a blister on his throwing hand which certainly could be an issue as he tries to command his pitches Sunday. It did push his start back from it's original schedule and he could be a little rusty here. The A's are 22-12 to the over this season in their games against teams with a winning record. *10* OVER 8 in Oakland |
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07-16-16 | Royals -119 v. Tigers | Top | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 22 h 17 m | Show |
Rickenbach Revenge Rout MLB *10* Top Play Kansas City Royals -120 @ Detroit @ 7:10 ET - Danny Duffy is seeking revenge and certainly should get it. He had a tough outing in June against the Tigers but he was matched up with Justin Verlander in the eventual 10-4 Royals loss. The good news this time is that Verlander pitched yesterday and that means Mike Pelfrey is Duffy's counterpart this time. Pelfrey is 2-8 on the season and also has a 7.12 ERA in his home starts this year. Pelfrey has managed to escape big trouble in many of his recent starts where he's put himself in tough situations with too many baserunners but then managed to work his way out of it. There is only so many times a "magician" can accomplish that before "playing with fire" eventually burns. Pelfrey is ultra-hittable and he has been hit at an insane .363 batting average in his home starts this season! Kansas City should pound him while Duffy shuts down the Tigers. Yes, he had a tough outing in his last start against the Royals but he he still has a 1.16 WHIP in his 12 career starts against the Tigers. By comparison, Pelfrey has an ugly 1.84 WHIP in his 7 career starts against the Royals. Kansas City is 8-3 in Duffy's 11 starts this season and the Royals southpaw has a solid 3.11 ERA and 1.02 WHIP on the year. The loss in Duffy's start against the Tigers in mid-June was the only defeat in a 4-game set as KC won the other 3 games. He and the Royals get their revenge for that here. *10* KANSAS CITY |
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07-16-16 | Red Sox v. Yankees OVER 9.5 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -108 | 21 h 43 m | Show |
Rickenbach Divisional Total of the Month MLB *10* Top Play OVER 9.5 runs in New York Yankees vs Boston @ 4:05 ET - A pair of struggling southpaws match up at Yankee Stadium Saturday afternoon and that means, even though the Yanks have had some struggles with lefties this season, there should be a barrage of hits against Boston's Eduardo Rodriguez in this one. The southpaw has gone winless with an 11.54 ERA in his last 3 starts. His lefty counterpart tonight is C.C. Sabathia who is likely to get lit up by Boston. Sabathia is also winless in his last 3 starts and he has a 7.71 ERA during this stretch. The veteran left-hander has in fact allowed 5 earned runs or more in 4 straight starts! The over, heading into the All Star Break, was on a 14-5-3 run in Yankees games. The over in Boston games was on a 12-6 run heading into the All Star Break. The mindset of Rodriguez for the Red Sox also could be called into question because his winless in the 7 starts he has made at the minor league level as well this season. Yankees bats should have no trouble with his offerings while Boston has one of the most dangerous lineups in baseball and should have no trouble pounding a struggling hurler whom they are very familiar with. Indeed Sabathia's struggles continue. The over is 9-3 in Red Sox Saturday games this season and Boston entered last night's action with a mark of 8-2 to the over this season in road games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. Yankees are 5-1 to the over this season in home games where their money line is -100 to -125. *10* OVER in New York Yankees |
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07-15-16 | Indians v. Twins +135 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 31 h 0 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Underdog Shocker *10* Minnesota Twins Money Line +140 @ Cleveland @ 8:10 ET - The Twins won 7 of their last 9 games before the All Star break. The two losses came by a total of just 3 runs. The 7 wins came by a combined 45 runs. Minnesota is undervalued now in this opening game spot after the All Star break. The Indians come into this game having lost 6 of their last 9 games and Cleveland lost 4 of those games by a margin of 3 runs or more including a pair of losses by double digit margins. Certainly I respect the Indians Carlos Carrasco, the starting pitcher for this one, but he got rocked by the Yankees in his final start before the All Star break. Also, he is only 1-5 in his career against Minnesota and the Twins got to him for 11 earned runs in less than 16 innings in his last three starts against them. Ervin Santana gets the start for Minny in this one and he has allowed just 2 earned runs on 10 hits in 13 innings of work in his last two starts against the Indians. Additionally, the Minnesota right-hander has given up a total of only 5 earned runs on 17 hits in the 28 and 2/3 innings spanning his last 4 starts before the All Star break. The Twins are the hotter team with arguably the hotter pitcher. They also, as you can see, are a sizable home dog here, and that makes them well worth the play. As a road favorite of -125 to -150, look for the Indians to drop to a money-burning 5-7 on the season. Santana wins his 3rd straight over the Tribe. *10* MINNESOTA |
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07-15-16 | Mets v. Phillies OVER 9 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -100 | 30 h 60 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Slugfest *10* Top Play OVER 9 runs in Philadelphia vs New York Mets @ 7:05 ET Friday - Bartolo Colon gets the start for the Mets Friday. Although he was successful in shutting down the Phillies quite well in a pair of starts in April, the Phils were winning with pitching back then. Philadelphia's current winning streak has been thanks to hitting and they're catching Colon at the right time to do some damage. Not only are they seeing him for a 3rd time this season but also he was rocked for 6 earned runs on 10 hits in less than 5 innings of work in his final start before the all star break. He'll be opposed by the Phillies Jeremy Hellickson in this one. The veteran righty gave up 4 earned runs on 10 hits in only 4 and 1/3 innings of work the last time he faced the Mets and they'll be seeing him for a 3rd time this season. Hellickson has not pitched as well in evening games as he has under the sun as he has a 2.78 ERA in day games but a 4.50 ERA in night games this season. Citizens Bank Field is hitter-friendly and the Phillies entered the All Star Break having gone 23-13 to the over in their last 36 games! The Mets 56 homers on the road ranks them 4th in the National League and I look for some fireworks as they have already hit 3 homers in Hellickson's 10 innings against them this season. *10* OVER in Philadelphia Friday |
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07-12-16 | American League v. National League OVER 7.5 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -105 | 30 h 48 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 7.5 in National League vs American League @ 8:15 ET Tuesday - Unlike the NFL (Pro Bowl) or NBA (All Star Game), the MLB game is anything but meaningless. The fact that the World Series host league is decided based on who wins this game definitely has helped to keep the competition level up for this game. That said, I look for another dandy this year. Even though Petco Park is certainly known as a pitcher-friendly park, the Padres have surprisingly been recording a lot of overs in their home park this season. This has been especially true over more than the past month too so it's no fluke. Certainly San Diego's home park is no hitters' park but the production at the plate here has been stronger than usual this season. Three of the last four All Star games have totaled at least 8 runs and, though it was more than two decades ago, historians will be glad to know the last time an All Star Game was held in San Diego it totaled 19 runs! This season overall in the big leagues it has been notable that offense does seem to be "up" on the year. Even in April there seemed to be more high-scoring games than usual but certainly once the warmer weather of May and June (and now July) arrived, the scoring really seems to be on an "uptick" this season. Of course it goes without saying that there will be plenty of talented pitchers as well as talented players in San Diego for this one. The keys for me are the fact that hitters have had the upper hand quite often this season and the fact that Petco Park has been playing to unusually high-scoring games this season. The past 7 weeks the over is 16-7 (70%) in games played at Petco Park. For the 4th time in the past 5 years, and with plenty to play for again this season, I look for at least 8 runs to be scored in the MLB All Star Game. *10* OVER in MLB All Star Game Tuesday |
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07-10-16 | Phillies +168 v. Rockies | Top | 10-3 | Win | 168 | 9 h 59 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Revenge Rout *10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line +165 @ Colorado @ 4:10 ET - There is tremendous line value here. The Phillies and Rockies have nearly identical records on the season and even Philadelphia's road record is not much worse than Colorado's home record. The Phils are seeking revenge after the 8-3 beating they took last night and, odds are, they will get it! That is another reason the big dog price here is certainly a "risk" well worth the taking! Believe it or not, the Phillies have not lost back to back games since June 21st and 22nd. That means that for the past three weeks you can't find a set of back to back losses for the Phils and I expect them to again bounce back strong here off of a defeat. The Phillies were on a 9-2 run their last 11 games prior to yesterday's loss. Philadelphia's Zach Eflin gets the start here and he has pitched very well ever since a rough outing in his MLB debut. The Phillies have won each of his last two starts and Eflin has compiled a 1.71 ERA and stellar 0.81 WHIP in his last three outings overall. The Rockies Tyler Chatwood has been going the opposite direction. He has only lasted a total of 6 and 2/3 innings in his last two starts and he has a 4.72 ERA in his last 3 starts that easily could be much higher as walks have been a major issue for the Rockies right-hander. Chatwood has a losing record (and a 5.10 ERA) in his home starts this season. Colorado had lost 8 of its last 10 games before yesterday's victory. The Rockies haven't won back to back games since winning three straight from June 25th to the 27th. Insane underdog line value here and I'll take it. *10* PHILADELPHIA |
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07-10-16 | Mariners v. Royals OVER 9 | Top | 8-5 | Win | 100 | 5 h 52 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Slugfest *10* Top Play OVER 9 in Kansas City vs Seattle @ 2:15 ET - Yesterday's game stayed just under the total but, based on the pitching match-up and the wind blowing out to left at a good clip this afternoon, a slugfest can be expected Sunday. The Mariners are starting Mike Montgomery. The southpaw has pitched well out of the bullpen this season but is now making a spot start for Seattle. The M's lefty struggled often in the starting role last year and, in his last three starts of 2015, Montgomery gave up 17 earned runs on 23 hits in less than 10 innings of work! He's facing a Royals team that did get the sticks going again yesterday as they pounded out 12 hits in only 8 innings! Kansas City is hitting .286 against left-handed pitching this season which is good for the #2 spot out of all 30 MLB teams. Seattle is hitting .266 against right-handed pitching and that is good for the #5 spot among AL teams. The Mariners should have no trouble with the offerings of Dillon Gee. The Royals right-hander was 0-3 with a 7.90 ERA last season with the Mets in 8 games (7 starts) and he got hit at a .329 clip! This season, opponents are hitting .299 against Gee and that includes his numbers out of the pen but he's been even worse as a starter. This will be just his 5th start of the season and he's making a spot start here. Gee has gone 2-2 with a 6.05 ERA and a 1.81 WHIP this year as a starter. Gee has been particularly roughed up in his last two starts and they both went over the total. This one should too because neither pitcher is likely to enjoy success here and the Mariners had gone 8-6 and averaged 5 runs per game in their last 14 games before yesterday's tough effort at the plate. The Royals are averaging 5 runs per game in their last 13 home games and will build off of yesterday's strong effort at the plate. *10* OVER in Kansas City |
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07-09-16 | Twins v. Rangers OVER 11.5 | Top | 8-6 | Win | 105 | 13 h 60 m | Show |
Rickenbach AL Total of the Month *10* Top Play OVER 11.5 in Texas vs Minnesota @ 9:05 ET - The Rangers are turning to Kyle Lohse for this start. That is unlikely to have positive results for Texas as Lohse is 3-5 with a 5.06 ERA in his 10 starts at AAA Round Rock this season down in the minors. In his most recent MLB activity, last season, Lohse compiled a 5-13 record with Milwaukee as he was done in by a 5.85 ERA and getting hit at a .297 clip. The 37 year old right-hander is simply not the pitcher he once was and the Twins should pound him. Yesterday's game went over the total and Minnesota had had just 3 unders in their last 10 games. The Twins have produced 6.4 runs per game while averaging nearly 10 hits per game in their last 12 games. Lohse faced Minny twice last season and he gave up 9 earned runs in 12 innings against the Twins. Minnesota has a pitching concern of their own in this game. Ricky Nolasco gets the start and he is 3-7 with a 5.26 ERA on the season plus he has allowed 14 earned runs on 23 hits in the 18 and 1/3 innings spanning his last 3 starts. His last game stayed under the total but that was just the 3rd under in 17 Nolasco starts this season! Yes indeed, he has been an "over machine" in 2016. Texas has also been an "over machine" of late as they have had just 3 unders in their last 12 games. The Rangers are a top 5 team this season for home batting average (.281) and the Twins are averaging 7.6 runs per game in their last 7 games. The over is an incredible 26-12 in Minnesota's games against teams with a winning record this season and even more incredible 34-12 in Twins night games this season! The Rangers have scored at least 5 runs in 12 of their last 16 games and both teams have had bullpen issues this season too. All signs point to an absolute slugfest here. *10* OVER 11.5 in Texas |
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07-09-16 | Cubs v. Pirates +151 | Top | 6-12 | Win | 151 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Pennsylvania (PA) Insider *10* Top Play Pittsburgh Pirates Money Line +150 vs Chicago Cubs @ 7:15 ET - The Cubs continue to be over-priced. I faded them yesterday successfully and I again like my chances today with the big dog Pirates. Yesterday's 8-4 Pittsburgh win dropped the Cubs to 5-14 in their last 19 games. Jon Lester gets the start for the Cubs today and certainly has been a successful pitcher for a very long time but the veteran southpaw is off of a poor start where he allowed 8 earned runs in only 1 and 1/3 innings of work. Lester has enjoyed success against the Pirates this season but this will already be the 4th time they have seen him in the last couple months. Pittsburgh got to him for 3 earned runs on 7 hits and 3 walks in 6 innings of work in their most recent match-up on June 18th. Also, when Lester most recently pitched in Pittsburgh he did manage to keep the Pirates off the scoreboard but he was quite fortunate as they got to him for 8 hits and 2 walks in 5 and 2/3 innings of work. In other words, the Pirates certainly had some scoring chances versus Lester but they couldn't take advantage. This evening they likely will as the Pirates are hot with an 11-3 mark in their last 14 games. Pittsburgh has averaged 5.3 runs per game during this streak and they shouldn't need a lot of run support with Chad Kuhl on the mound. The Cubs have never faced him and he has allowed 3 earned runs or less in each of his first two outings. Look for the Pirates to improve to 14-8 against left-handed starters this season as they stay hot and continue to close the gap on the fading Cubs. *10* PITTSBURGH |
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07-08-16 | Cubs v. Pirates +155 | Top | 4-8 | Win | 155 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Revenge Rout *10* Top Play Pittsburgh Pirates +155 vs Chicago Cubs @ 7:05 ET - Tremendous line value here with the home underdog. With yesterday's loss the Cubs have now lost 13 of their last 18 games. Their slump is noteworthy and should not be ignored. As for the Pirates, they also did lose yesterday but they had previously won 7 straight and 10 of their last 12. That said, Pittsburgh has been closing the gap with the Cubs in the NL Central and they view this weekend series before the All Star Break as a golden opportunity to make a little more headway with their endeavor. The Cubs Jake Arrieta has been slumping as he has a 5.87 ERA and 1.76 WHIP in his last three starts. He has walked 11 in the 15 and 1/3 innings spanning these three starts and though he's had great success against the Pirates this season, he is not pitching like he was earlier in the season! Pittsburgh will have Franciso Liriano on the mound and the veteran lefty has shown the ability in his career to be a "big game" pitcher and he knows this one is big! Liriano wasn't overly dominant in his most recent start but he got the win and got his walks back under control too. He's given up 26 hits in his last 26 innings so his pitching hasn't been as bad as his ERA during this stretch may lead you to believe. Showing better command against the A's and now back in Pittsburgh where he allowed 2 earned runs or less in 5 of his first 6 home starts I expect Liriano to come up big tonight with a strong outing. The Pirates are 7-1 their last 8 games and 38-21 in July games the past three seasons and 43-21 in Friday games the past three seasons. Look for the Cubs to drop to 1-7 in July as they lose for the 8th time in their last 9 games. Huge value with the home dog in this one. *10* PITTSBURGH |
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07-08-16 | Tigers v. Blue Jays OVER 10 | Top | 0-6 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Slugfest *10* Top Play OVER 10 in Toronto vs Detroit @ 7:05 ET - The Tigers Mike Pelfrey is off of a RARE good start as he held the Rays in check in Tampa Bay Sunday. He still is winless on the road this season and has a 5.42 ERA on the year. Also, even including that good start, Pelfrey has allowed 30 hits in the less than 17 innings of work spanning his last three starts. Now he faces a red hot Blue Jays team that has won 6 straight games and is on a 9-4 run in their last 13 games that has seen Toronto produce an average of nearly 7 runs per game! Pelfrey has been rocked for 9 earned runs in the 10 and 1/3 innings spanning his last two starts against the Blue Jays. He'll be opposed by Toronto's J.A. Happ this evening in Toronto. The Jays southpaw has led his team to only 1 win in his 5 career starts against the Tigers while producing a 5.16 ERA in those outings. In his 3 starts against Detroit within the past year, Happ has been rocked for 13 earned runs in 16 innings of work. The over is 6-2 in Happ's 8 home starts this season. Pelfrey's most recent start was a surprising one that stayed under the total but 7 of his 11 prior starts went over the total and I look for a return to "normalcy" for the ultra hittable Pelfrey tonight. Detroit's games against team with a winning record this season have gone 30-15 (67%) to the over. The Tigers, before last night's 5-4 loss here, had won 7 of their last 9 games and averaged nearly 7 runs per game during the hot streak. Plenty of pop in both of these lineups and plenty of reason to believe both hurlers struggle tonight. *10* OVER in Toronto |
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07-07-16 | Phillies v. Rockies OVER 12 | Top | 2-11 | Win | 100 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Slugfest *10* Top Play OVER 12 in Colorado vs Philadelphia @ 8:40 ET - The Phillies Adam Morgan has a 1.60 WHIP. The Rockies Chad Bettis has a 1.52 WHIP. Allowing too many base-runners (measured by Walks and Hits per Inning Pitched) is a key measurement in looking at all MLB match-ups but it is especially key at Coors Field. That's because it is the most hitter-friendly ballpark in the entire league and the ball carries so well that big innings are commonplace in this venue. Yes the total of 12 (and possibly moving to 12.5 or higher) is certainly a big number but it is absolutely justified in this situation. The Phillies have been hitting the ball very well. The Phils 4-3 win yesterday makes them 9-3 their last 12 games. Philadelphia has averaged scoring 6 runs per game in these dozen games! The Rockies, as so typically happens, struggled to score runs on their west coast road trip that wrapped up last night in San Francisco. However, Colorado is thrilled to be back home where they are simply a different team! The Rockies are hitting .305 at home this season (and remember the pitcher bats too in NL parks so this is an insane team batting average) and Colorado has averaged 6.34 runs per game at Coors Field. The Phillies Morgan has a 6.55 ERA on the season and the Rockies Bettis has a 6.69 ERA in his 7 home starts this season. 4 of his last 5 home starts have gone over the total while Morgan's starts have resulted in 5 straight overs! I expect 6-0, 100% here and I also expect the Rockies to improve to 8-0, 100% overs in Thursday games this season. Two 100% streaks being tested here. *10* OVER in Colorado |
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07-07-16 | A's +116 v. Astros | Top | 3-1 | Win | 116 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Revenge Rout *10* Top Play Oakland A's +115 @ Houston @ 8:10 ET - Oakland is off of a shutout loss at Minnesota yesterday. Houston is off of a win where they got some surprising big hits and also took advantage of an uncharacteristic 3 errors on the part of Seattle. The Astros are still only 11-15 against left-handed starters this season and Rich Hill is a tough one. He's a perfect 6-0 on the road this season for the A's while compiling a 1.40 ERA away from home. Hill has simply been phenomenal. The Astros are 1-8 on Thursdays this season and coupling that with the Athletics 6-0 mark in Hill's road starts and you have a combined 14-1 angle working in Oakland's favor here. I look for the A's to improve to 3-1 this season when off of a shutout loss. The Athletics should take advantage of the Astros Doug Fister as the Houston right-hander has allowed 9 earned runs on 17 hits in the 11 and 1/3 innings spanning his last two starts. Also, Fister walked 5 in his most recent start and he wasn't even able to complete 5 innings in that outing. The Astros had a 3-game losing streak in Fister's starts earlier this season and I look for a defeat today to make it another 3-game losing streak in his starts. The A's .261 batting average on the road ranks them in the top third of the majors while the Astros .229 batting average against southpaws ranks them dead last in the American League. *10* OAKLAND |
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07-06-16 | Mariners +146 v. Astros | Top | 8-9 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 3 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB 1st Half Game of the Year *10* Top Play Seattle Mariners Money Line +140 @ Houston @ 8:10 ET - Wade LeBlanc has been phenomenal in his first two starts since the Mariners picked him up. It really is no fluke as LeBlanc had been fantastic and consistent at the AAA level (Buffalo) in the Blue Jays organization when Seattle picked him up from Toronto. LeBlanc has struck out 8 while walking just 2 and allowing only 6 hits and 2 earned runs in 12 innings of work spanning his first two starts as a member of the M's. A big key here for the Mariners southpaw is that he is facing a team that is the worst in the American League in terms of batting average versus southpaws. Houston is hitting a paltry .226 against left-handed pitching this season! To put that in perspective, every other American League team is hitting at least .250 against lefties this season! Another key angle here is that the Astros are a former team of LeBlanc's so, even though his stay in Houston was very short, he certainly would love nothing more than to beat an organization that didn't give him much of a chance. Simply put, LeBlanc has been on top of his game all season long and that should continue against a team that is simply awful against lefties this season. The Astros will have Mike Fiers on the mound and I am well aware of his successful numbers at home this season. However, this is still a guy who, overall, is getting hit at a .282 clip on the season! In other words, Fiers has been playing with "fire" for much of this season and it is only a matter of time before a true "correction" to his numbers takes place. He's off of a good start against the White Sox but previously was hit hard in 3 of his last 6 starts and I expect the Mariners to certainly do enough damage to support the red hot LeBlanc in this one and that leads to a road victory at a fantastic underdog price. The Mariners had won 7 of their last 9 games heading into this Houston series and they avoid the sweep and resume the winning this evening. *10* SEATTLE |
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07-06-16 | Brewers v. Nationals OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 59 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Slugfest *10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Washington vs Milwaukee @ 4:05 ET - Matt Garza has a 3.74 ERA on the season in his limited action thusfar but he's been about as lucky as you can be. Garza has given up 29 hits in less than 22 innings of work spanning his 4 starts. One of those starts came against the Nationals less than 2 weeks ago so the Nats will be getting a quick second look at him. Likewise, Washington's Tanner Roark just faced the Brewers less than 2 weeks ago so Milwaukee is getting a quick second look at him. These types of scenarios (especially with two mediocre pitchers) usually work out well for the hitters! Roark has allowed 15 hits in the 14 innings spanning his last two starts but amazingly has given up only 2 earned runs during this time. His "luck" runs out today in a rematch with the Brewers. Yesterday's game was a 5-2 Milwaukee win and there hasn't been much scoring so far in this series but that should change on a mild afternoon in DC with favorable conditions for the hitters. The ball should be jumping off the bats today and Garza is not a strikeout pitcher and Roark's strikeout numbers have been trending downward of late. This is one of those contrarian plays where the public sees two guys with low ERAs but I see two pitchers who have been fortunate and are currently over-rated as a result. Roark was 4-7 with a 4.38 ERA and a .279 BAA last season. Garza was 6-14 with a 5.63 ERA and was hit at a .294 clip last season. Back to reality for these two hurlers today as the bats come alive in the finale! *10* OVER in Washington |
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07-05-16 | Yankees v. White Sox +115 | Top | 9-0 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Revenge Rout *10* Top Play Chicago White Sox Money Line +115 vs New York Yankees @ 8:10 ET - With the Yankees 8-2 loss yesterday to the White Sox, the Yanks have now lost 6 of their last 9 games. The ChiSox have been heading the other direction as they have won 10 of their last 14 after yesterday's blowout win. Still this is a bit of a revenge spot for the White Sox as they face Masahiro Tanaka whose team has defeated the ChiSox both times in his career starts against them. The most recent was earlier this season and that was a 7-5 Yankees win despite Tanaka allowed 4 earned runs on 8 hits and 3 walks in only 5 innings of work. As you can see, he and the Yanks were quite fortunate in that one and I don't see them being so fortunate tonight. Tanaka comes into this start having allowed 6 earned runs in 6 innings in his most recent start. Also, he'll be opposed by a southpaw tonight and left-handers have given the Yankees trouble this season. Carlos Rodon gets the start for the White Sox and he held the Yanks to just 2 earned runs in 6 innings when he faced them in late September. This season the Yankees are just 10-16 against southpaw starters and 11-17 in their games against teams with a winning record. Against left-handed pitching this season, the Yankees rank at or near the bottom of the AL in batting average, on base percentage, and slugging percentage! I expect the Yanks to drop to 22-40 in their last 62 Tuesday games! As for the ChiSox, look for them to improve on a 33-23 (+16.4 net!) in July games the past three seasons. Rodon was rolling great until he ran into trouble in the 6th inning against Minnesota in his most recent start and, prior to that outing, he had given up 2 earned runs or less in 5 of his last 6 starts. He should dominate here. *10* CHICAGO WHITE SOX |
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07-05-16 | Braves v. Phillies OVER 8.5 | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Slugfest *10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Philadelphia vs Atlanta @ 7:05 ET - With yesterday's 8-2 Phillies victory, the Braves have now gone 6-2 to the over in their last 8 games and Philadelphia is now 22-10 to the over since June 1st. Earlier this season it was the Phillies pitching staff that was a key in their surprising solid start to the season. Then, after a slump followed the hot start, it is now the Phillies lineup that is leading the resurgence. Philadelphia has averaged 6 runs per game in their last 13 games and they have won 8 of their last 11 games! The Phillies Zach Eflin gets the start today and the over is 3-1 in his 4 starts so far. His first start, his MLB debut, looks like the ugliest outing he's had but though his stats indicate he may have recovered a bit from that he truly hasn't. Eflin gave up 4 runs (3 earned) to the Diamondbacks in his most recent start. In his prior start, at San Francisco, the numbers look okay but he gave up a ton of line drives in that game and was just fortunate that many were caught for outs. Eflin doesn't get many strikeouts and contact at Citizens Bank Park can be a problem. He'll be opposed by Mike Foltynewicz and he only went 3 innings in his return from the disabled list as his start was shortened due to rain. He was not overly impressive in that outing and he certainly wasn't overly impressive in his lone career start against the Phils which was last season as he allowed 4 earned runs in 5 and 1/3 innings. That game went over the total and Atlanta is 17-9 to the over this season in games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. The Phillies are 46-31 to the over the past three seasons in home games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. *10* OVER 8.5 in Philadelphia |
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07-04-16 | Orioles +140 v. Dodgers | Top | 5-7 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Revenge Rout *10* Top Play Baltimore Orioles +140 @ Los Angeles Dodgers @ 9:10 ET - The Orioles are looking to avenge a series sweep at the hands of the Mariners in Seattle and that means revenge will have to be served against the Dodgers in Los Angeles. Based on the pitching match-up tonight, I believe the O's have a great shot at getting right back on track. Baltimore's Yovani Gallardo has been a different pitcher (in a good way) since returning from the disabled list. The Orioles are a perfect 3-0 in the 3 starts he's made since coming back from the DL and Gallardo has given up 3 earned runs or less in every single start. In his last two starts against the Dodgers Gallardo has given up just 1 earned run only 10 hits in 15 innings of work! The Dodgers come into this game off of a series sweep of the Rockies but Los Angeles is only playing about .500 ball in inter-league action and the past three seasons combined and this has netted -5.5 net games. As for the Orioles, they are 3-1 this season and 27-17 the last three seasons combined in inter-league action. The O's are also 35-23 this season (and 162-116 the las three seasons combined) in night games. Julio Urias gets the start for the Dodgers and he walked 6 batters in his most recent outing. Prior to that start, Urias had allowed 31 hits in the 27 innings spanning his first 6 starts this season. Now having issues with command of his pitches, Urias has been quite hittable at the MLB level and the young left-hander has been fortunate he has been able to maintain a low ERA. The Dodgers have won four straight games and only ONCE this ENTIRE season has LA had a winning streak go beyond four games. The Orioles have lost four straight games but NEVER this entire season have the O's lost more than 4 in a row. It's bounce back time for the sizable road dog (value!) here and I am happy to go against a 19 year old southpaw who has been hit at a .284 clip by right-handed lumber at the MLB level. *10* BALTIMORE |
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07-04-16 | Marlins v. Mets OVER 7.5 | Top | 6-8 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Slugfest *10* Top Play OVER 7.5 runs in New York Mets vs Miami @ 4:10 ET - The Marlins are off of a 5-2 win over the Braves in a game played at Fort Bragg, NC Sunday night as part of the special festivities surrounding the July 4th weekend. Miami could have scored much more than the 5 runs they pushed across the plate in that game as the Marlins ended up stranding 10 baserunners in that game. Miami has averaged 5 runs per game in their last 9 games and the over is 8-1 in these games. The Marlins should have no trouble with the offerings of the Mets Matt Harvery as he is struggling right now. Though his last start was cut short by rain, it is not as if Harvey was enjoying success in that start anyway. The Mets right-hander walked 3 and gave up 4 hits in less than 4 innings of work in the rain-shortened outing. Prior to the start against the Nats, Harvey had given up at least 4 earned runs in 4 of his last 8 starts. He's given up 19 hits in the 15 and 2/3 innings spanning his last 3 starts. He won't be the only starter struggling this afternoon. Tom Koehler gets the start for the Marlins and he has given up 9 earned runs on 15 hits in his last 9 innings of work. Now he takes on a Mets team that exploded for 14 runs yesterday afternoon and will be stepping to the plate with plenty of confidence this afternoon. Each of Koehler's last three starts against the Mets have gone over the total. As a road dog of +125 to +150, the over is 5-1 in Marlins games this season. The Mets lineup is likely to stay red hot after their 4-game sweep of the Cubs that saw New York average 8 runs per game. Low total here and considering the overall mediocre recent results of these two starting pitchers, I am happy to take advantage of the low number here. *10* OVER in New York Mets |
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07-03-16 | Pirates v. A's OVER 8.5 | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB 1st Half TOTAL OF THE YEAR *10* OVER 8.5 in Oakland vs Pittsburgh @ 4:05 ET - Make no mistake, Daniel Mengden has pitched surprisingly well for Oakland since his call-up from the minors. However, he does not have overpowering stuff and I expect him to struggle against the red-hot Pirates this afternoon. With their 4-2 win yesterday, Pittsburgh is 6-2 in their last 8 games and has averaged 5.4 runs per game during this stretch. Oakland also has been swinging the bats well. Prior to being held to 2 runs yesterday, the Athletics had averaged 6.9 runs per game in their last 9 games. Oakland should certainly bounce back against the Pirates Francisco Liriano today. Not only has the Pirates southpaw been struggling, the A's rank 8th out of all 30 MLB teams for slugging percentage against left-handed pitching. This has played a big role in the over being 14-4 in Oakland's games against southpaw starters this season! Liriano is 1-4 with a 6.98 ERA in his 7 road starts this season. The Pirates lefty has been issuing too many walks and is having trouble with location of his pitches in the strike zone. This has played a key role in Liriano allowing at least 4 earned runs in 5 of his last 6 starts. The Pittsburgh southpaw has walked 29 in the 36 innings spanning his last 7 starts. The over is 21-10 this season in Pirates games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. Pittsburgh's interleague games are 10-4 to the over this season and day games have gone 17-9 to the over. The over is 37-23 in Pirates games against right-handed starters and the over is 19-6 in their games against teams with a losing record. The A's pound Liriano as they look to avoid the sweep but I also expect Mengden (0-3 in day games) to come back to reality after pitching "over his head" so far at the big league level. *10* OVER in Oakland |
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07-03-16 | White Sox +139 v. Astros | Top | 4-1 | Win | 139 | 7 h 5 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Revenge Rout *10* Top Play Chicago White Sox +135 @ Houston @ 2:10 ET - The Astros struggles against left-handed pitching this season continued yesterday. They did get a little more off of Chris Sale than expected but still the fact that Houston had only 6 hits while striking out 9 times in 7 innings tells you what you need to know. The Astros continue to labor against southpaws with the lowest batting average (.231) among AL teams when facing left-handed pitching. That is 14 points lower than any other American League team. This afternoon the Astros will face Jose Quintana who has a much lower ERA and much lower WHIP on the season than his counterpart, Houston's Collin McHugh, in this one. Quintana's team is 5-1 in his 6 career starts against the Astros but that lone loss occurred in the lefty's last visit to Houston even though Quintana gave up only 1 earned run 6 and 1/3 innings as he was outdueled by Dallas Keuchel. The ChiSox southpaw has a 2.78 ERA in his career starts against the Astros and allowed just 1 earned runs in both of his starts versus Houston last season. McHugh is winless in his two career starts against the White Sox. The Astros right-hander has been hit at a .301 clip in his home starts this season and Houston has been fortunate to go 6-2 in his 8 home starts this season as McHugh has struggled more often than not in those home outings. I look for the Astros to drop to 9-15 against left-handers this season with another loss today. The value is with the road dog in this one. *10* CHICAGO WHITE SOX |
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07-02-16 | Angels v. Red Sox OVER 10 | Top | 21-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Slugfest *10* Top Play OVER 10 in Boston vs Los Angeles Angels @ 7:15 ET - Yesterday's game between these clubs was unbelievable. The teams combined for 28 hits but yet scored only 9 runs. It was one of the worst beats on an over that I have seen in a long time. We should get redemption today by coming right back with the same selection as the pitching match-up is conducive to an over and both teams are swinging the bats well as evidenced yesterday. The Angels will have Hector Santiago and he has struggled in most of his starts since late April. The Los Angeles southpaw has had only 3 quality starts out of his 12 starts dating back to April 29th. The over is 9-2 in Santiago's last 11 starts and he has a 6.48 ERA in his last 12 starts. He gave up 6 earned runs versus Oakland last week and gave up 8 hits in 5 innings the last time he faced the Red Sox. Boston will have Clay Buchholz on the mound this evening and he gave up 6 earned runs in 6 innings the last time he faced the Angels. Also, like Santiago, he has struggled for much of this season. He allowed 4 earned runs in his most recent start and that was the 8th time in 12 starts this season that Buchholz has allowed 4 earned runs or more. Buchholz again had command issues with his pitches in his start last week versus the Rangers. The over is 8-2 in Red Sox Saturday games this season. When Boston is a home fave of -150 to -175 this season the over has hit 80% of the time. The Angels loss yesterday was their fourth straight and they are 24-12 to the over the past three seasons combined when they enter a game on a losing streak of 3 games or more. *10* OVER 10 in Boston |
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07-02-16 | White Sox +100 v. Astros | Top | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Revenge Rout *10* Top Play Chicago White Sox Money Line -105 @ Houston @ 4:10 ET - The Astros have been red hot and they got the 5-0 win yesterday but they face their "kryptonite" this afternoon as they face a southpaw starter. Houston, among American League teams, has the worst batting average (.231) against left-handed starters this year. The Astros aren't just facing "any" lefty either as they take on Chris Sale today. The White Sox southpaw is "on top of his game" right now as he has gone 3-0 with a 2.45 ERA in his last 3 starts. He is also 6-1 with a 1.99 ERA in road starts this season. Sale is 4-1 with a 0.66 ERA in his 5 career starts against Houston and I fully expect the Astros to drop to 9-14 this season in their games against left-handed starters. Houston will have Doug Fister on the mound and he has given up 17 hits in his last 12 and 1/3 innings against the White Sox. By comparison, Sale has allowed just 13 hits in his last 25 innings against the Astros! The ChiSox lefty also has struck out 35 in those 25 innings! Simply phenomenal numbers. Look for the White Sox to bounce back from yesterday's shutout loss and improve to 14-3 in games started by Sale this season. The only 3 times that the White Sox have been shutout this season they've responded with a win every time. 3-0 with 20 runs scored in those 3 games when off of a shutout loss. Look for them to make it 4-0 today! *10* CHICAGO WHITE SOX |
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07-01-16 | Angels v. Red Sox OVER 10 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 10 in Boston vs LA Angels @ 7:10 ET - Both of these clubs were off on Thursday. The Red Sox are off of a shutout loss on Wednesday at Tampa Bay. That is only the 3rd time this season that Boston has been shutout. After each of the first two, the BoSox next game resulted in an over. I expect another one here. The Red Sox should pound Jhoulys Chacin. The Angels right-hander was somewhat rejuvenated after arriving to the Angels from the Braves earlier this season. However, Chacin has certainly quickly reverted to his old form and that has seen him get pounded. In his last three starts Chacin has a 10.03 ERA and a 2.49 WHIP. None of his last 5 starts have resulted in unders and the Angels righty has given up 21 earned runs in the 22 innings spanning these 5 outings. Chacin has given up 9 earned runs on 15 hits in his last 9 innings against the Red Sox. Boston will have Steven Wright on the mound this evening and the knuckleballer certainly has put up some strong numbers this season. However, he gave up 6 earned runs in 5 innings when he most recently faced the Angels and that was last July. Wright is coming off of a tough start at Texas where the Rangers got to him for 8 runs (3 earned) on 7 hits and a pair of walks in less than 5 innings of work. The Angels have gone over the total in 5 of their last 7 games and are averaging 10.6 hits per game in their last 8 games. The Red Sox were averaging 10.3 hits per game in their last 7 games before the ultra rare shutout at Tampa Bay Wednesday. The BoSox bounce back at home today and the Angels sticks stay hot and pound out double digits in hits yet again. The over is 11-5 the past three seasons when the Angels are off of a game where they allowed 10 runs or more. The over is 24-11 the last three seasons when the Angels enter a game on a losing streak of 3 games or more. The over is 35-23 in Boston's games against right-handed starting pitchers this season. The over is 26-15 in Red Sox games against teams with a losing record this season. *10* OVER 10 in Boston |
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06-30-16 | Cubs v. Mets OVER 7.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 7.5 runs in New York Mets vs Chicago Cubs @ 7:10 ET - A pair of solid hurlers with overall good numbers on the year is keeping this total lower than it would otherwise be given the following facts. The Cubs John Lackey has a 6.61 ERA in his last three start and the Mets Steven Matz also has a 6.61 ERA in his last three starts. Lackey has given up three homers in his last two starts and the wind is expected to be blowing out at Citi Field tonight. Though it is generally a pitcher-friendly venue, Citi Field will be a little friendlier than usual to the hitters tonight. Lackey particularly struggled at Miami in his most recent start and I look for him to again get hit hard here. The Mets Matz has allowed 22 hits in his last 3 starts spanning 16 and 1/3 innings. He also has given up a homer in each of his last two starts and did not record a single strikeout in his most recent outing. That is always an alarming stat as it shows that hitters aren't having any trouble seeing (and making contact with) his pitchers. The over is 4-2 in Matz's home starts this season and 2 of Lackey's last 3 road starts have gone over the total. The Cubs have not had a single under in any of their last 6 games. The Cubbies bats have been rejuvenated on this road trip as they averaged 9 runs per game at Cincy and have scored at least 5 runs in 5 of their last 6 games. In their 41 road games this season, the Cubs have had just 15 unders. In their 41 Thursday the games the past three seasons it has also been only 15 unders for the Cubs. Look for this one to easily get over the low total as the normally low-scoring Mets take advantage of catching Lackey at the right time while the Cubs also stay hot at the plate. *10* OVER in New York Mets |
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06-29-16 | Rangers v. Yankees OVER 8.5 | Top | 7-9 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in New York Yankees vs Texas @ 7:05 ET - With their 7-1 win yesterday, the Rangers are now 13-3 in their last 16 games and have averaged 6 runs per game during this hot streak. The Yankees have cooled off a bit at the plate recently but are still averaging 10 hits per game in their last 10 games. Facing the Rangers Nick Martinez Wednesday should bring the Yanks bats right back to life after scoring just a single run yesterday. Martinez has struggled in both of his starts this month since moving into the rotation. He has more walks than strikeouts and also gave up 2 homers in his most recent start. Martinez has given up 8 earned runs in less than 13 innings of work spanning his last two starts against the Yankees. The Yanks got to him for 3 homers in those two outings. Masahiro Tanaka gets the start for the Yankees in this one. He allowed 4 earned runs on 9 hits and 3 walks (for a 2.00 WHIP) in the 6 innings he logged against the Rangers in his only career start against them. Tanaka comes into this home start having allowed 8 earned runs in the 12 and 1/3 innings spanning his last two home starts. In fact, Tanaka has a 5.74 ERA in his last 5 home starts so he's certainly been far from dominant at Yankee Stadium. The Rangers have recently had a lot of unders but that has had a lot to do with getting solid pitching. With Martinez on the mound tonight, that is unlikely to be the case and the Rangers sticks will remain hot as well. In other words, perfect ingredients for an over. The Yankees have had just 2 unders in their last 10 games. Prior to yesterday's defeat, the Yanks had averaged 5 runs per game in going 6-4 in their last 10 games. Look for the Yankees offense to get right back on track tonight. *10* OVER 8.5 in New York Yankees |
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06-29-16 | Astros v. Angels OVER 9 | Top | 10-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 50 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 9 in Los Angeles Angels vs Houston @ 3:35 ET - With yesterday's 7-1 win, the Astros have now won 9 of their last 10 games and they've averaged 6.5 runs per game during this hot streak. I don't see Jered Weaver being able to slow down the Astros red hot sticks. The veteran right-hander was long-known for excelling in his home starts but, after another rough effort Friday, Weaver has given up 4 earned runs or more in 5 of his last 7 home starts. Not surprisingly, the over is 5-2 in Weaver's last 7 starts. Weaver has allowed 9 earned runs in the less than 12 innings of work spanning his last two starts against Houston. Weaver also has given up 4 homers in his last 3 starts against the Astros. He will be opposed by Dallas Keuchel this afternoon. The southpaw has certainly been the victim of some bad breaks in some of his starts this season but there is no denying he was way too "hittable" in his most recent start as the Royals got to him for 4 earned runs on 11 hits in his 6 innings of work. The left-hander allowed 2 homers in that start and also allowed 2 homers in his most recent outing against the Angels in late May. Keuchel dominated at home last season but was not so dominant on the road last year. This season, he's been far from dominant away from home as Keuchel has a 5.89 ERA in road games in 2016. The fact he only had 2 strike-outs at Kansas City in his most recent start is also cause for concern. The over is 17-8 (68%) the last 3 seasons in Astros road games where they are a fave of -125 to -150. The Houston hot hitting continues here but the Angels sticks will respond after producing just 2 runs yesterday and that means an afternoon slugfest can be expected here. *10* OVER 9 in Los Angeles Angels |
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06-28-16 | Blue Jays v. Rockies OVER 12 | Top | 14-9 | Win | 100 | 15 h 60 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 12 in Colorado vs Toronto @ 8:40 ET - As of early Tuesday morning it appears the wind will be switching around this evening. Even though when the first pitch is made in this game the wind may not be blowing out it is likely that it will end up blowing out for much of this game. That said, I see a lot of value with another over in the dry, thin air at Coors Field tonight. With last night's 9-5 win, the Rockies have now seen 7 straight games go over the total. There is no reason not to expect another one tonight. Colorado crushed the Blue Jays bullpen last night and let's not forget that the Rockies bullpen has been one of the worst in the league this season. That is bad news for Colorado tonight because their starter, Eddie Butler, is unlikely to pitch deep into this game. Butler has a 10.42 ERA and a 2.11 WHIP in his home starts this season. The Rockies righty also has a 10.20 ERA and a 2.27 WHIP in his last 3 starts overall. Facing a Blue Jays lineup that has averaged 6.5 runs per game in their last 12 games isn't going to help matters for Butler! The Rockies will be facing J.A Happ of the Blue Jays tonight. The southpaw faced Colorado twice in the last two months of last season so they have some familiarity with him even though this is an inter-league match-up. The red-hot Rockies have averaged 8 runs per game in going 5-3 in their last 8 games. The over is 3-1 in Butler's 4 home starts this season and the over is 7-1 in the Rockies 8 inter-league games this season. Look for yet another wild one at Coors Field tonight. *10* OVER 12 in Colorado |
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06-27-16 | Blue Jays v. Rockies OVER 12 | Top | 5-9 | Win | 100 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 12 in Colorado vs Toronto @ 8:40 ET - Yesterday's Blue Jays game (at the White Sox) stayed under the total but the Jays had previously gone over the total in 5 of their last 7 road games. The Rockies game (versus Arizona) went over the total yesterday and that made it 6 straight overs in Colorado games. Now the Rockies are back into interleague action again and the over is 6-1 in their interleague games this season. Colorado will have Jon Gray on the mound and he walked 5 in just 4 innings in his most recent start. Gray allowed 4 earned runs in that outing and was diagnosed with a tired arm that forced him to exit early. Even though he's back on track for this start Monday, I do expect him to continue to show signs of fatigue. The Blue Jays hurler tonight also has an injury concern here as Marco Estrada has been having some discomfort in his back. Since he pitched in the National League for much of his career he's faced the Rockies a few times. He has allowed 11 earned runs on 19 hits (including 3 homers) in the less than 11 innings of work spanning his last two outings. Estrada comes into this start as the first pitcher ever to make 11 straight starts of 6+ innings with allowing 5 hits or less in each of the outings. Of course trying to keep that going at Coors Field is about the toughest test a hurler could have and I look for him to struggle again here (just like he did in his most recent start against the Rockies back in 2014). Though all 7 of his home starts have stayed under the total this season, Estrada's road starts have had mixed results in terms of the total while Gray's 5 home starts have yielded just 1 under. Look for the over to go to 22-13 in Rockies home games this season as the warm (and thin air) of Denver continues to lead to crazy slugfest results. *10* OVER in Colorado |
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06-27-16 | Red Sox -108 v. Rays | Top | 7-13 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play Boston Red Sox Money Line -108 @ Tampa Bay @ 7:10 ET - Though the Red Sox have been struggling a bit, no one in the majors is struggling as badly as the Rays right now. With their loss yesterday, it is now 11 straight defeats for Tampa Bay. Perhaps even more alarming than just the losing is the fact that all 11 defeats have come by a multiple run margin and, in fact, the 0-11 run features an average margin of defeat of 4 runs per game. I am expecting another blowout loss here and that is why this selection is a top play! Boston will have southpaw Eduardo Rodriguez on the mound and, though he was not overpowering, the lefty pitched well enough in both his starts against the Rays last season for the Red Sox to win both games. Rodriguez seems to have turned the corner after some recent struggles. He allowed only 4 hits in 6 innings while striking out 7 in his most recent start. He'll be opposed by Rays right-hander Blake Snell in this one. The Tampa Bay righty has only allowed a total of 3 earned runs in his two starts since returning to the rotation earlier this month. However, Snell has been fortunate (to say the least!) as he's given up 15 hits and 6 walks in 10 innings for an ugly 2.10 WHIP in these two outings. The Rays are winless in his 3 starts this season while the Red Sox are a perfect 2-0 in the road starts of Rodriguez this season. Look for the BoSox to improve to 7-2 this season when on the road in a game with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs while the Rays drop to 9-25 this year in their games against teams with a winning record! *10* BOSTON |
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06-26-16 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies UNDER 12.5 | Top | 7-9 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 25 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play UNDER 12.5 in Colorado vs Arizona @ 4:10 ET - Yes ,it is hitter friendly Coors Field and yes these teams have been piling up runs in their meetings this season. However, both of the hurlers today are capable of shutting down the opposition. Colorado is hitting 28 points less against lefties than righties this season and they'll be facing southpaw Patrick Corbin whose team has gone 9-2 in his 11 career starts against the Rockies. The last time Corbin pitched at Coors Field he allowed just 2 earned runs in 6 and 1/3 innings on September 1st. As for Arizona, they are hitting 28 points less against righties than lefties and they'll be facing right-hander Chad Bettis who has allowed just 2 earned runs in each of his last two starts while striking out 13 and walking just 1. He's in top form right now with walks down and strikeouts up. He'll have plenty of confidence for this afternoon match-up with the Diamondbacks and the wind most likely will be blowing in from right field in this one. 3 of Corbin's last 4 starts have stayed under the total. Also, the under is 4-1 in Corbin's divisional starts this season. Only 51 of Arizona's 123 day games the past 2+ seasons have gone over the total. Only 3 of the Rockies 10 Sunday games so far this season have resulted in an over. Yesterday's Rockies win was their 35th this season. So far this season Colorado has won just 13 games the 34 times they are off of a win. With a big total to work with here and a pair of starting pitchers likely to work deep into the game and have success, I expect a rather easy totals winner on the short side of this one. *10* UNDER 12.5 in Colorado |
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06-25-16 | Astros v. Royals OVER 9 | Top | 13-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 9 in Kansas City vs Houston @ 7:15 ET - Yesterday's game got crazy right away in the top of the first inning. Error, infield hit, walk, grand slam...it basically had it all. While a repeat of such a huge first inning is unlikely here it absolutely should be another easy over on a warm night in Kansas City with the wind expected to be blowing out to left field at Kauffman Stadium. Though the Royals Chris Young has pitched better of late he is well known for having issues with the long ball and, before allowing just 1 in each of his last 2 starts, Young allowed 4 homers in an outing at Cleveland. The Astros are a power-hitting team and, as you would expect, that is the type of club that gives Young problems. The veteran righty has allowed 7 homers in his last 3 starts against Houston. Also, in Young's last two starts against the Astros he has given up 13 earned runs on 17 hits in the less than 8 innings of work spanning those two outings. He'll be opposed by Michael Fiers tonight. The Astros right-hander is 0-2 with a 7.36 ERA in his two career starts against the Royals. Fiers has been solid at home for Houston this season but the Astros are 1-4 in his 5 road starts this season as he's been rocked for a 6.43 ERA away from home. 4 of those 5 Fiers road starts went over the total and the over is 6-2 in the Royals last 8 games after yesterday's easy over. When Houston is on the road and priced as a small fave of -100 to -125, the over is 8-3 this season. Look for the over to improve to 7-2 in the Royals last 9 games as KC also could get a boost with the return of Alex Gordon to the lineup today. Either way, yesterday's 25 hits is a sign of what should be expected throughout this weekend series. *10* OVER in Kansas City |
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06-25-16 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies OVER 11.5 | Top | 6-11 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 11.5 in Colorado vs Arizona @ 4:10 ET - Both bullpens got crushed in yesterday's game and that could be a significant factor today as neither one of these starting pitchers has been an "innings-eater" this season. The Diamondbacks Miller has averaged 4.8 innings per start while the Rockies De La Rosa has averaged 4.3 innings per start. Miller is off of a rare solid start for Arizona but he faced a floundering Phillies team. Prior to that effort, Miller had given up 22 earned runs in his last 31 innings. Colorado's De La Rosa has been pitching better of late since he returned to the rotation but he allowed 3 homers in his last start and that's certainly a bad sign that he's reverting to his old form of leaving too many pitches in the wrong part of the zone. That is part of what has led to his ugly 8.57 ERA on the season. Also, though the wind is not expected to be a huge factor one way or the other today, there is a chance it will be switching around and blowing out during this game with warm afternoon conditions favoring an over as well. All 4 of De La Rosa's home starts have gone over the total this season and Arizona leads the majors in slugging percentage (.492) against left-handed pitching. The over is 20-11 in Dbacks games against teams with a losing record this season. With last night's game crushing it for 19 runs, the over is 12-6 in Rockies home games with a posted total of 11 or 11.5 runs this season. *10* OVER in Colorado |
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06-24-16 | Red Sox v. Rangers OVER 9.5 | Top | 8-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in Texas vs Boston @ 8:05 ET - The Red Sox had recently hit a lull with some surprisingly low-scoring games but yesterday's 8-7 win marked the 2nd straight "wild one" with the White Sox as the teams combined for 29 runs and 50 hits in the last 2 games of the series. Look for the Boston bats to stay hot as they head to Texas now. Even though David Price is on the mound for the BoSox tonight, another wild one should be expected. The Rangers have pounded left-handed pitching this season. Their .289 batting average against southpaws ranks them 1st in the majors. Price is 3-8 with a 5.14 ERA in his career outings against the Rangers so Texas certainly hasn't been one of his favorite places to visit. He's allowed at least 4 earned runs in 2 of his last 3 meetings with the Rangers. Texas is going to have a pitching concern of their own tonight as Nick Martinez certainly wasn't sharp against the Cardinals Saturday. The Rangers right-hander was unable to complete 5 innings as he allowed 8 baserunners in 4 and 1/3 innings while striking out just 1. He was fortunate the damage wasn't worse than the 3 earned runs he allowed. Last season Martinez had a 5.79 ERA and a .303 batting average against after the all star break and his first start shows he's carried those struggles right into this season. Even in the minors this season he was getting hit at a .292 clip. The over is 16-7 in Boston's games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs this season. Included in that record is a 6-2 over mark when the Red Sox are on the road. The Rangers are 16-10 to the over this season in home games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. *10* OVER in Texas |
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06-24-16 | Rays +127 v. Orioles | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play Tampa Bay Rays Money Line +127 @ Baltimore @ 7:05 ET - The Orioles have struggled against left-handed pitching this season. Baltimore is hitting .237 against southpaws and, taking a look at all American League teams, only the Astros (.233) have fared worse against lefties. That said, I look for the O's to struggle to connect against Matt Moore in this one. The Rays southpaw is in excellent current form with just 2 earned runs given up on only 8 hits while striking out 15 in the 13 innings of work spanning his last two starts. In Moore's last two starts against Baltimore he has held them to 3 earned runs on only 5 hits while striking out 18 in the 14 innings of work spanning those two outings. While Moore should dominate the Orioles here, look for Baltimore starter Yovanni Gallardo to continue to struggle. He has a 6.26 ERA in his 5 starts this season. When he last faced Tampa Bay (August) he allowed only 3 earned runs in 5 and 1/3 innings but gave up 11 hits! As you can see, Gallardo was hit hard but was fortunate to escape without much damage being done. Tonight, look for some big-time damage as his frustrating season (spent significant time on disabled list) continues. The Rays have been on a losing streak but yesterday's day off did them some good and, with a huge edge on the mound tonight, they'll get back on track with a W here. I'll grab the significant underdog line value here. *10* TAMPA BAY |
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06-23-16 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies OVER 10.5 | Top | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 16 h 32 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 10.5 in Colorado vs Arizona @ 8:40 ET - The Rockies lost 9-8 in the Bronx yesterday but that marked the 9th time in their last 12 games that Colorado has scored at least 5 runs. The Diamondbacks are also off of a loss yesterday and were held to just 2 runs at Toronto but Arizona had previously won 5 straight games and averaged 5 runs per game during the hot streak. The Dbacks should certainly have no problems with the offerings of Colorado's Eddie Butler. The right-hander had made three appearances in June, including two starts. Butler has been rocked for 24 hits and he has also walked six in the 13 and 1/3 innings spanning these three games. In his 3 home starts this season (and the wind is likely to be blowing out tonight at hitter-friendly Coors Field), Butler has a 10.29 ERA and a 1.93 WHIP. He'll be opposed by Arizona's Zack Greinke tonight and that is what is helping to keep this total lower than it should be (given that it's Coors Field and should be hitter-friendly weather conditions). Greinke has impressive numbers this season and so certainly many may expect him to dominate here. However, Coors Field is a unique challenge for pitchers and Greinke is no exception. He allowed 5 earned runs on 10 hits in 6 innings while striking out just 2 in his most recent visit here. Also, Greinke has faced the Rockies twice (both in Arizona) this season and he has allowed 9 earned runs on 17 hits (including 3 homers) in 11 innings of work. The Rockies hitters will be stepping up to the plate with confidence in this one and Colorado is hitting nearly .300 at home while averaging 6 runs per game. The over is 6-0 in Rockies Thursday games this season. The over is 18-11 in Diamondbacks games against teams with a losing record so far this season. *10* OVER 10.5 in Colorado |
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06-23-16 | Cubs v. Marlins OVER 7.5 | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -107 | 14 h 2 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 7.5 in Miami vs Chicago Cubs @ 7:10 ET - The Marlins Wei-Yin Chen got rocked for 6 earned runs in less than 3 innings of work in his most recent start. That outing was against the Rockies and it was NOT at hitter-friendly Coors Field either. Chen's prior two starts saw him allow 7 home runs in his two outings prior to the debacle versus Colorado. The Marlins southpaw is simply in awful current form right now. Even though the Cubs have been scuffling a bit at the plate lately this is still one of the most dangerous lineups in the league and facing a struggling southpaw is likely to bring out the best in them. What is helping to keep this total lower than it should be (opened up at a 7.5) is the fact that Jon Lester is on the mound for the Cubs. However, the left-hander is off of a very fortunate start in his most recent outing as he allowed 11 base-runners (but only 3 runs) in his start against the Pirates. He now faces a Miami team that crushed him for 6 earned runs in 5 innings when they faced him last season. The over is 5-1 in Lester's road starts this season. Also, the over is on a 5-1 streak in Chen's starts. When the Cubs are a road favorite in a price range of -150 to -175 this season, the over has gone 7-1 (88%). Additionally, the over is 5-2 this season (and 25-14 the last 3 seasons) in Cubs Thursday games. The over is 45-33 in Marlins games against left-handed starters the past three seasons. Additionally, the over is 24-16 in Thursday games during this 3-year stretch. The Marlins rested Stanton and Prado in yesterday's early afternoon game but I expected those key sticks to be back in the lineup this evening. *10* OVER in Miami |
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06-22-16 | White Sox v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 | Top | 8-6 | Win | 107 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in Boston vs Chicago White Sox @ 7:10 ET - Back to back 3-1 games to open up this 4-game series with a pair of easy unders. Look for the low-scoring trend to come to an abrupt end on Wednesday evening. The Red Sox are sending Eduardo Rodriguez to the mound and he is winless with an 8.59 ERA and a 1.84 WHIP in his last 3 starts. The struggling southpaw gave up 6 homers in those 3 starts even though he averaged under 5 innings per outing. While Boston will struggle to hold the ChiSox offense in check tonight, the Red Sox lineup should provide plenty of fireworks on their own. Yes, the BoSox have struggled the last few games at the plate but they are getting a second look at Jose Quintana after seeing him last month. The White Sox lefty has been an "under machine" this season but he has given up 4 homers in his last 4 starts. Also, in the month of June he has been hit at a .275 clip. On the season, right-handed hitters have hit Quintana 71 points higher than lefties and last season the margin of difference was 50 points. He will face plenty of right-handed lumber in the BoSox lineup tonight and I look for his recent struggles to resume. Before struggling the first two games of this series, Boston had reached double digits in hits in 6 of their last 9 games. The over is 15-7 this season in Red Sox games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs and also 23-14 this season in their games against teams with a losing record. The over is 4-1 in White Sox road games this season with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. *10* OVER 9.5 in Boston |
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06-22-16 | Mariners v. Tigers -115 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play Detroit Tigers -110 vs Seattle @ 7:10 ET - With their 4-2 win yesterday, Detroit sent the Mariners to their 8th loss in their last 10 games. Things are unlikely to improve for the M's today as they face a red hot Michael Fullmer. The right-hander has a 0.51 ERA in his last 3 starts and a 0.69 ERA in his 2 home starts this season. Fullmer has an advantage here in that the Mariners have never faced him. Conversely, the Tigers have seen plenty of Seattle's Hisashi Iwakuma and they have gotten to him for 5 earned runs in 2 of the last 3 meetings! The Tigers hit 6 homers against Iwakuma in those 2 outings where the Mariners right-hander allowed 5 earned runs each time. Iwakuma comes into this outing having allowed 4 homers in his last two starts. The Tigers are "only" 6-5 their last 11 games but they have averaged nearly 6 runs per game during this stretch and Fullmer shouldn't require a lot of run support as his phenomenal season continues. The Tigers are 8-2 in Fullmer's 10 starts this season. Look for Seattle's June Swoon (6-14 this month) to continue while the Tigers improve on a 16-6 (73%) record this season in home games with a money line between -100 and -150. This is a classic case of "hot versus not" and I like the line value here with the small home fave. *10* DETROIT |
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06-21-16 | Reds v. Rangers OVER 9.5 | Top | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in Texas vs Cincinnati @ 8:05 ET - The Rangers Colby Lewis is off of an incredible start where he had a perfect game into the 8th inning and a no-hitter into the 9th inning. Oftentimes when a pitcher like this (4.50 ERA and .289 BAA at home this season) is off of a phenomenal start, they quickly come crashing back down to reality. The fact is that Lewis is known for struggling at hitter-friendly Globe Life Park in Arlington. Last season he had a 5.07 ERA in his home starts. In 2014, Lewis went 3-9 with a 5.90 ERA and .315 BAA. Look for Lewis to again struggle tonight as he's back home off of a lengthy outing where he logged 109 pitches as he was going for the no-no. The over is 6-1 in the 7 home starts that Lewis has made this season. He'll be opposed by Anthony DeSclafani of the Reds. The Cincinnati right-hander struggled in what was just his 2nd start of the season. He's fortunate, to say the least, that he has a 2.08 ERA so far this season as he has a 2.31 WHIP in his 8 and 2/3 innings on the mound. DeSclafani has been hit a .389 clip in his limited action this season but the fact is he's been hit hard at the MLB level with a .282 BAA in his 226+ career innings. Even in the minors the young righty has struggled this year. At the AA and AAA level combined, DeSclafani gave up 11 earned runs in 17 innings of work. Amazingly, he allowed 6 homers in those 17 innings at the minor league level! The over is 3-1 this season when the Reds are off of a shutout loss and they lost 6-0 to Houston on Sunday. The over is 32-19 this season in Cincinnati's games against right-handed starters. As a home favorite in the -175 to -225 range the Rangers are on a long-term 115-76 run to the over. Look for the over to improve to 9-3 in Rangers Tuesday games this year with another wild one tonight. *10* OVER in Texas |
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06-21-16 | Rays v. Indians OVER 8 | Top | 0-6 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 8 in Cleveland vs Tampa Bay @ 7:10 ET - There were 5 homers hit in yesterday's game and it finished with 11 runs in Cleveland's 7-4 win. Contrary to what many are likely expecting here, I am well known as a contrarian and I fully expect another rather high-scoring match-up tonight. A low total is being offered on today's game because of the long-term reputation of Corey Kluber of the Indians. This is a great value for over players today because Kluber is coming off of a rough start plus he has struggled often in his outings at home this season. Kluber got rocked at Kansas City in his start last week as he allowed 8 earned runs in only 5 innings of work. Now the Indians right-hander is back home where his last start was a successful one, also against the Royals. But prior to that strong outing at home, Kluber had given up at least 4 earned runs in 4 of his first 5 home starts this season. This is hardly "ace like" production and I look for Kluber to again struggle tonight as the Rays have gotten to him for 10 earned runs the last 3 times they've faced him. Tampa Bay will have pitching issues of their own tonight as the Rays hand the ball to Blake Snell for tonight's start. The young lefty didn't even make it out of the 4th inning in his start last week and yet it took him 92 pitches just to get to that point (1 out in the 4th inning when Snell exited). The 23 year old southpaw allowed 5 runs but was fortunate only 1 was earned as he gave up 8 hits in 3 and 1/3 innings. The over is 11-3 in Cleveland's home games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs this season. The over is 20-9 in Tampa Bay's road games this season. Look for another game to reach double digits in runs tonight as Snell's struggles continue and Kluber has another rough outing which has been a problem for him all season long at home. *10* OVER 8 in Cleveland |
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06-20-16 | Mariners v. Tigers OVER 10 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 10 in Detroit vs Seattle @ 7:10 ET - The Tigers Mike Pelfrey is 1-7 with a 5.30 ERA and a 1.71 WHIP on the season. He's been extremely hittable all season long and he's fortunate that his ERA isn't higher. The veteran right-hander now faces a Mariners team that will be ready to bounce back after being held to just 1 run despite 8 hits in yesterday's game. The M's have averaged 9.4 hits per game in their last 9 games. Before back to back unders 5 of the Mariners last 7 games had gone over the total and I look for that type of trend to resume here as the over is 4-2 in Pelfrey's home starts this season. The Tigers had an extremely disappointing effort at the plate in yesterday's 2-1 loss. However, 5 of Detroit's 6 prior games had gone over the total. The Tigers were averaging 6.4 runs per game in their last 8 games before yesterday's disappointing result. Detroit should be able to bounce back strong against the offerings of Nate Karns. The Mariners righty has a 6.75 ERA and a 1.95 WHIP in his last 3 starts as control has been an issue with far too many walks. Also, only 3 of Karns' last 12 starts have resulted in an under. The Tigers are happy to be back home and the over is 18-8 in their home games this season. Detroit is also 7-1 to the over in their Monday games this season. Against teams with a winning record, the Tigers are 23-10 to the over this season and, against right-handed starters, the Tigers have gone 31-17 to the over this season. Both lineups bounce back from disappointing efforts at the plate as each club resumes the hot hitting that had been on display in recent games. *10* OVER in Detroit |
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06-20-16 | Rays +126 v. Indians | Top | 4-7 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play Tampa Bay Rays Money Line +125 @ Cleveland @ 7:10 ET - The Rays Drew Smyly, after extra time off where his turn in the rotation was skipped, returned to action refreshed and renewed as he struck out a career-high 12 batters over seven innings. That start came against the Mariners and he allowed just two runs to Seattle as he bounced back and resumed his status as a strikeout pitcher. Look for the southpaw to give the Indians trouble here as Cleveland is off of a huge sweep over the division rival White Sox and I expect that to leave the Tribe a little flat here as they try to come down off of that emotional high. The Indians were held to just 3 runs yesterday despite the victory. That said, it marked the 8th time in their last 13 games that Cleveland has been held to 3 runs or less! By contrast, the Rays had scored at least 4 runs in 11 of their last 15 games before their 5-1 home loss to San Francisco yesterday. Look for Tampa Bay to get right back on track here as, though they struggled in the interleague series with the Giants, the Rays had previously won 9 of their last 12 games. Tampa will face the Indians Josh Tomlin who certainly has some impressive overall numbers this season but he has allowed 23 hits in his last 3 starts and those have spanned less than 20 innings. If he's hittable again here (as I suspect he will be) the Indians are going to be in trouble because Smyly can be a strikeout machine again in this match-up. Tomlin has given up 3 homers in his last 2 starts. The Indians are 3-5 in Monday games this season and 16-26 the past 3 seasons combined and, as mentioned above, this is a flat spot for them after the big weekend series sweep of the division rival ChiSox. Tampa Bay is 13-5 in road games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs this season. *10* TAMPA BAY |
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06-19-16 | Angels v. A's OVER 9 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -120 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 9 in Oakland vs Los Angeles Angels @ 4:05 ET - Yesterday's game was 7-1 in the top of the 6th inning and the posted total was an 8.5 but the game stalled at that point and did not get the single run it needed to go over the total. That might help limit the market activity on today's total and help to keep it at a 9 but, either way, this is one match-up that should easily fly over the total. Eric Surkamp gets the start for the A's and he hasn't even made it out of the third inning in two of his last three starts. Also, the southpaw is struggling overall with more walks than strikeouts as a starter this season. Surkamp is winless in his 7 starts this season with an ugly 8.07 ERA that is worse (9.25 ERA) at home and that is showing no signs (13.03 ERA last 3 starts) of turning around. As Surkamp continues to head the wrong direction we also continue to see from the Angels Jered Weaver what we've seen with him for many years. That is that he struggles on the road. Through the years he's taken advantage of pitching his home starts at pitcher-friendly Anaheim but has struggled away from home. This season he has a 5.97 ERA on the road and, even though Oakland is generally considered a pitcher-friendly venue, the ball carries better in afternoon games and this is especially true when the wind is blowing out as it is expected to be at a good clip today. Each of Weaver's last 3 starts have gone over the total and the same is true of Surkamp's last 3 starts. Surkamp struggled against the Angels in his lone start against them in April of this year. He allowed 5 hits and 4 walks for 9 baserunners in a start that lasted less than 5 innings. Weaver has been rocked for 10 earned runs in less than 13 innings of work in his last two starts at Oakland. The A's had averaged nearly 6 runs per game in their last 6 games before struggling at the plate yesterday. Against Weaver, they will resume the hot hitting. As for the Angels, with their 7-1 win yesterday, they have averaged 6 runs per game in winning 3 of their last 4 games. *10* OVER in Oakland |
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06-18-16 | Braves v. Mets OVER 7.5 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 7.5 runs in New York Mets vs Atlanta @ 8:15 ET - This total has dropped from an 8 to a 7.5 as of gameday morning and this is offering substantial line value to the over. The Braves have their sticks going as, with yesterday's 5-1 win, Atlanta has averaged 6 runs per game in their last 5 games. Also, the Braves are averaging 10 hits per game in their last 12 games and they again reached double digits in hits last night with 11. Though the Mets Steven Matz has a solid ERA on the season, the southpaw has given up 24 hits in the 16 and 2/3 innings spanning his last 3 starts. He's been ultra-hittable and will be facing an ultra-confident Braves lineup tonight. That should help get this one to be an easy over because Atlanta will have the struggling Aaron Blair on the mound. The Braves right-hander is winless in his 9 starts this season with a 7.59 ERA and a 1.81 WHIP. Blair has a 9.26 ERA on the road this season and a 9.45 ERA in his last 3 overall starts. The over is 4-1 in the 5 home starts that the Mets Steven Matz has made this season. The over is 8-2 this season in Mets Saturday games. The Braves are a huge dog here and that is noteworthy as the over is 7-2 long-term in Atlanta road games where they are a big dog in a price range of +225 to +250. Before yesterday's under, the Braves were on a 5-1 run to the over and the Mets were on a 4-1 run to the over. The Mets had averaged 10 hits per game in their last 7 games and they'll respond against the struggling Blair and a weak Braves bullpen after being held to just one run yesterday. *10* OVER in NY Mets |
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06-18-16 | Diamondbacks v. Phillies +152 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 28 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line +145 vs Arizona @ 3:05 ET - The Phillies certainly have an unimpressive full season record but one situation they have thrived in all season long is games that are projected to be a pitchers' duel. That said, Zack Greinke and Jared Eickhoff certainly has the makings of a low-scoring tight battle and that is why the posted total on this game is only 7. Note that the Phillies are a stellar 11-5 (and +10.8 net units!) in games where the posted total is 7 runs or less this season. The Diamondbacks got the big 10-2 win yesterday but they are an ugly 12-17 this season when off of a win and Arizona is also a poor 9-14 in day games this season. Though Greinke is in good current form he's known for letting the mental aspect of pitching get to him at times (he's had anxiety type issues in the past) and he'll likely remember his last start in Philly. Greinke got roughed up for 6 earned runs in 6 innings in his last start at Philadelphia. I expect the Phillies to enjoy some surprising success against the Dbacks ace pitcher and I look for that to be plenty of run support for Eickhoff who has been pitching very well. The Phils right-hander has a 1.37 ERA in his last 3 starts and has a stellar 2.12 ERA in his 7 home starts this season. Arizona has never faced Eickhoff so that is a big edge for the right-hander and his 3.40 ERA on the season is lower than that of Greinke's ERA this season. In other words, don't be fooled by the records of 9-3 for Greinke and 4-8 for Eickhoff. This has the makings of an upset and is offering excellent home dog value for the Phils. *10* PHILADELPHIA |
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06-17-16 | Tigers -115 v. Royals | Top | 3-10 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play Detroit Tigers Money Line -115 @ Kansas City @ 8:15 ET - With the Tigers 10-4 win over the Royals yesterday Detroit has won 9 of its last 13 games. The Tigers offense has averaged 6.2 runs per game during this stretch and it likely wouldn't take much run support for Michael Fullmer to get the win tonight. The Detroit right-hander is on an incredible scoreless streak that has reached 28 and 1/3 innings! The Royals have never faced Fullmer so that is another advantage for the red hot hurler. As for Kansas City starter Yordano Ventura, he faced the Tigers in April and was fortunate that he only allowed 2 earned runs in the 5 inning start as he gave up 6 hits and 3 walks in that game. Ventura was tougher to hit in April as he was throwing well. Note that in May (.291) and June (.275) opponents have been hitting at a much higher clip against Ventura. The Royals right-hander has given up 9 homers in his last 9 starts and faces a dangerous Tigers lineup tonight. Kansas City's loss last night to these Tigers drops KC to just 5-9 in their last 14 games. Detroit is 5-2 this season as a small road fave in a price range of -100 to -125. Though one might expect the Royals to bounce back after getting blasted yesterday, history certainly does not support that theory. Kansas City is 127-189 (40%) the last 316 times they were off of a game where they allowed 10 runs or more! The Tigers have won 7 in a row with Fullmer on the mound. I don't see that streak stopping today! Great value on the money line here. *10* DETROIT |
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06-17-16 | Mariners v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 | Top | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in Boston vs Seattle @ 7:10 ET - The Red Sox stunk it up at the plate last night which is rare, especially at Fenway Park, and I look for Boston to respond in a big way tonight. Before scoring just one run in last night's game, the BoSox had averaged 7 runs on 11.6 hits per game in their last 5 games. Friday I expect the Red Sox to take advantage of facing a hurler they have dominated. Seattle will have Hisashi Iwakuma on the mound and the right-hander has found the Red Sox to be a nemesis. Iwakuma has gone winless in 4 career starts against the Mariners while compiling a 9.60 ERA and a 2.20 WHIP. The Seattle starter comes into this start having allowed 6 homers in his last 3 starts. The Mariners last 6 games in Boston have all gone over the total and I expect the Mariners to hit the ball very well tonight as well. The M's can tee off against Roenis Elias as the former Seattle hurler was called up from AAA Pawtucket to make this start. I expect the southpaw to feel the added pressure of having to face his former team in his first start back in the big leagues. In 2016 with Pawtucket and 2015 with Tacoma (both are AAA clubs), Elias has a combined 5.44 ERA. That is a lofty ERA considering it is minor league ball and I don't expect him to fare well at all against a team that certainly has great scouting reports on his repertoire of pitches. The Mariners come into this game off of a 6-4 win at Tampa Bay yesterday. Seattle will be facing a left-handed starter for a 3rd straight game which is a plus for the hitters. The M's have averaged about 5 runs per game in their last 9 games. The over is 5-2 this season in Mariners road games that have a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. The over is 15-6 in Red Sox games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs this season. *10* OVER in Boston |
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06-15-16 | Tigers v. White Sox OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 14 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Chicago White Sox vs Detroit @ 8:10 ET - For the 2nd straight night these two teams combined for 19 runs in their game. Game 3 of the series should result in another easy over. The Tigers have won 9 of their last 13 games and are averaging 6 runs per game in their last 14 games. The White Sox have gone 13-7 to the over in their last 20 games and should enjoy continued success at the plate against Mike Pelfrey. The Tigers right-hander has a 1-6 record and a 4.68 ERA this season but his ERA could easily be even higher. Pelfrey has been hit at a .322 clip so "big damage" is almost always just "a pitch away" for the veteran hurler. The way the White Sox are swinging the bats in this series, and considering it will be another hitter-friendly weather night in Chicago tonight, Pelfrey is likely to suffer the "big damage" in this one. The only good news for he and the Tigers is that they are catching Chris Sale at the right time. The big White Sox southpaw has been struggling of late. He's compiled a 6.57 ERA in his two starts in the month of June but the struggles go even further back. Looking at his last 4 starts, Sale has allowed 17 earned runs on 34 hits and 9 walks in his last 22 and 2/3 innings. That equates to a very "un-Sale like" 6.75 ERA and 1.90 WHIP as the lanky lefty has allowed nearly 2 baserunners per inning in his last 4 starts! Since these teams are divisional rivals, the Tigers are very familiar with Sale and enjoyed success against he and Pelfrey squared off earlier this month. That game ended with 11 runs scored and a similar result tonight should be expected. *10* OVER in Chicago White Sox |
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06-15-16 | Astros v. Cardinals -113 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -113 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play St Louis Cardinals Money Line -113 vs Houston @ 7:15 ET - Adam Wainwright has more career wins (13) against the the Astros than any other team in the league. The Cardinals right-hander has won seven straight decisions against Houston and I like the value being offered with him in this spot. St Louis lost yesterday's game thanks in part to a pair of unearned runs. The top five hitters in the Astros lineup only went 2 of 20 - hitting .100 in yesterday's game. Wainwright comes into this start having allowed only 26 hits in his last 32 and 2/3 innings spanning his last 5 starts. The Cards righty has a 3.03 ERA in these last five starts combined and is pitching much better of late than what his full season stats would lead you to believe. Couple that with his career-long domination of the Astros and we are truly getting extremely strong line value with he and the Cardinals at home in this match-up. The Astros Collin McHugh has a 5.22 ERA on the season and has been hit at a .302 clip on the year. He has allowed 4 earned runs or more in 7 of his 13 starts this season and this looks like another tough spot for him as he has a losing record on the road and a losing record in night games this season. The Houston right-hander also has a 5.00 ERA in his career starts against the Cardinals. The Cards had won 7 of 8 before yesterday's loss. Also, the Astros were only 13-21 on the road this season before notching yesterday's win. *10* ST LOUIS |
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06-14-16 | Yankees v. Rockies +115 | Top | 10-13 | Win | 115 | 13 h 60 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play Colorado Rockies +115 vs New York Yankees @ 8:40 ET - What the public is likely to see here is a Rockies pitcher, Jorge De La Rosa, who is 1-4 with an 11.41 ERA as a starter this season. What I see is a guy who got relegated to bullpen duty, including long relief of as much as 4 innings (and not in meaningless games) and who stepped up big time. In 8 innings of bullpen work De La Rosa allowed only 1 earned run on a solo bomb and that was 1 of just 3 hits against him in these 8 innings while he walked none and struck out 10. De La Rosa now takes on a Yankees team that has struggled against left-handers this season with an 8-13 record and some ugly numbers at the plate against lefties. The Yankees haven't faced De La Rosa in a long time (which certainly could help the lefty) as he's happy to face a team against which he's 3-0 in his career with a 0.00 ERA thanks to 17 scoreless innings! De La Rosa will be opposed by Nathan Eovaldi of the Yanks. The right-hander has been struggling of late with 10 earned runs on 18 hits (including 3 homers) in his last two starts spanning only 10 and 2/3 innings of work. Eovaldi is facing a Rockies team that crushes the ball at home averaging 5.7 runs per game while hitting at a .291 clip. Colorado has won 6 of its last 8 games and the Rockies bullpen has been improving while the Yankees bullpen has struggled on the road this season. Look for the Rockies to improve to 5-2 this season as a home dog of +100 to +125. *10* COLORADO |
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06-13-16 | Indians v. Royals OVER 8 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -102 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* OVER 8 in Kansas City vs Cleveland @ 8:15 ET - Some low run totals recently for Kansas City is hiding the fact that the Royals have averaged 10.2 hits per game in their last 5 games. Also, they faced Carlos Carrasco in his first start off of the disabled list and the Royals got to him for 9 hits in a start where the Indians right-hander was fortunate that he only allowed 3 earned runs. In his next start, Carrasco gave up 4 earned runs at pitcher-friendly Seattle and the Mariners got to him for two homers. This is just his third start since coming off of the DL and he's giving the Royals lineup a quick "second look" so this is likely to be a tough start for him. Kansas City is also likely to see their starting hurler struggle tonight as Edinson Volquez gets the start. The Royals right-hander will be facing the Indians for the third time already this season. In 10 and 2/3 innings versus Cleveland, Volquez has given up 10 earned runs on 14 hits. In each of the starts, he has allowed two home runs plus walked four batters. Volquez is an ugly 2-6 with an 8.12 ERA in his career against the Indians. He is winless in his last three overall starts entering this outing and he has compiled a 6.35 ERA in these games. The Indians are 9-3 in their last 12 games and have averaged nearly 6 runs per game in the 9 victories. Cleveland is 14-8 to the over this season in games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. Kansas City is 4-2 to the over in Monday games this season and the Royals are 24-16 to the over on Mondays the past three seasons combined. *10* OVER in Kansas City |
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06-13-16 | Tigers -106 v. White Sox | Top | 9-10 | Loss | -106 | 13 h 5 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play Detroit Tigers -105 @ Chicago White Sox @ 8:10 ET - With their 4-1 win in the Bronx yesterday the Tigers have won 8 of their last 11 games. Amazingly, Detroit has allowed an average of only 2.6 runs per game during this 11-game stretch. That spells bad news for a White Sox team that has lost 7 of their last 9 games and averaged only 3.2 runs per game in their last 10 games. Not only is this a case of two teams heading in opposite directions, it also is a case of two pitchers heading in opposite directions. Matt Boyd gets the starts for the Tigers and he has allowed only 9 hits in the 11 and 2/3 innings of work spanning his last two outings. The Detroit southpaw has actually had no hitters going through the first four innings of each of those starts. Boyd will be opposed by the White Sox James Shields who had an awful debut in his first start with his new team. Shields has now given up 17 earned runs in the 4 and 2/3 innings spanning his last two starts. He's also allowed 5 homers in these outings and Detroit already swept the White Sox earlier this month. Shields is 2-8 on the season and the White Sox are 5-9 against left-handed starters this year. The Tigers are 94-75 in divisional games the past three seasons combined. Classic case of "hot versus not" here and the road team offers exceptional line value in this spot. *10* DETROIT |
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06-12-16 | Dodgers v. Giants OVER 8 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 8 in San Francisco vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 8:30 ET - The Giants didn't get much of anything going in yesterday's game until the bottom of the 10th when they rallied to tie the game and then win it, courtesy of 4 straight hits. Coming off of a dramatic late win like that, I look for the San Francisco bats to build off that performance. As for the Dodgers, they are certainly frustrated about losing last night's game but the lineup finally got things going with 11 hits in yesterday's game. Facing Jake Peavy should help the Dodgers lineup to build off of yesterday's performance. I am well aware that the Giants right-hander has great career numbers against the Dodgers. However, he has allowed 4 earned runs in less than 6 innings of work in 2 of his last 3 starts against LA. Peavy also gave up 4 earned runs in 5 innings in his start against the Cardinals earlier this week. He has a 2-6 record and a 6.41 ERA on the season and the veteran is simply not the same pitcher he once was. Peavy will be matched up with Julio Urias who will be making just his 4th start of the season. The southpaw will be facing a Giants team that has hit .271 in their games against left-handed starters this season. Urias is winless in his first three starts this season and got crushed in both road outings to the tune of a 9.39 ERA away from home. Urias is only 19 years old and he's been crushed by right-handed hitters at the MLB level as they've hit .378 against him. That's bad news for what is to come tonight and, even though AT & T Park is a pitcher-friendly park, the wind will be blowing out tonight and I expect both of these hurlers to struggle badly in this one. The over is 5-2 in Dodgers games this season where they are a road dog of +100 to +125. The over is 13-8 in Giants games against teams with a winning record this season. *10* OVER in San Francisco |
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06-12-16 | Rangers +102 v. Mariners | Top | 6-4 | Win | 102 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play Texas Rangers Money Line +102 @ Seattle @ 4:10 ET - The whole world seemed to jump on the Mariners yesterday and they lost. Though the line move today is much smaller, it once again does not seem justified. The Rangers opened up as a small favorite here but are now a small dog as the markets flocked to Seattle and Wade Miley over Texas and Cole Hamels. Of course the Adrian Beltre injury continues to impact pricing in the markets but does anybody still realize that the Rangers will still have a lineup loaded with major league hitters going up against a hurler, Miley, who has an 8.04 ERA and a 1.91 WHIP in his last 3 starts? Even when one looks at Miley's full season numbers there is nothing to be impressed about. The Mariners southpaw is fortunate that he has a 6-2 record and that team has gone 9-3 in his 12 starts because Miley has a 5.27 full season ERA. The southpaw will prove to be no match for Hamels whose 5-1 record on the season is supported by a solid 3.32 ERA in his 12 starts. The Rangers lefty has been even better on the road than at home as Hamels 3-0 with a 2.08 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP in his 5 starts away from home. Hamels also has a 1.93 ERA in his last two starts against the Mariners while Seattle's Miley has a 9.00 ERA in his last three starts against the Rangers. This is a big-time pitching mismatch in my opinion and I look for the Mariners to drop to 2-8 in Sunday games this season. Seattle has lost 6 of their last 9 games. The Rangers have won 16 of their last 21 games. *10* TEXAS |
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06-11-16 | Cardinals v. Pirates OVER 8 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* OVER 8 in Pittsburgh vs St Louis @ 7:15 ET - Yesterday's game certainly had no business going over the total as some late runs changed the complexion of the game and then it went over the total thanks to a 6-run 12th inning from the Cardinals. I had the Cards yesterday and certainly was not happy when they allowed the tying run in the bottom of the 9th. All's well that ends well however and today I expect the big bats to show up well before a 12th inning! The Cardinals have admittedly struggled against the Pirates Francisco Liriano this season. However, the Pittsburgh southpaw has been rocked in each of his last two starts so he enters this game in poor current form. Liriano has given up 12 runs (11 earned) on 16 hits (including 3 homers) and 8 walks in his last 2 starts which have spanned only 9 and 1/3 innings. Liriano continues to struggle with command as he has walked 13 in the 15 innings spanning his last 3 starts. The Cardinals have drawn nearly 4 walks per game on the road this season where their .346 on base percentage ranks them 2nd out of all 30 MLB teams. They'll be patient at the plate today and frustrate Liriano. The Pirates lefty will be opposed by Carlos Martinez of the Cardinals today and the over is 8-2-1 in his 11 starts this season. The Cards right-hander is just 2-3 with a 4.89 ERA in his career starts against Pittsburgh and he has allowed 19 hits in his last 16 innings versus the Pirates. The over is a PERFECT 8-0 this season in Cardinals Saturday games. Also, when off of a win, St Louis has gone 22-10 to the over this year. The over is 16-3 in Pirates games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs this season and that includes 11-1 in home games! Pittsburgh is also 19-9 to the over this season when off of a loss. The Pirates and Cards will also both benefit from the wind blowing out to left field on a warm evening in Pennsylvania tonight. *10* OVER in Pittsburgh |
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06-11-16 | Padres v. Rockies OVER 12 | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -119 | 8 h 22 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 12 in Colorado vs San Diego @ 4:10 ET - With temperatures expected to be in the low 90s and the wind expected to be blowing out to left field at a good clip, this has the makings of a pitchers' nightmare in this afternoon match-up in the thin air of Colorado. The Rockies will send Tyler Chatwood to the mound and he has a tremendous home/road dichotomy. Colorado has gone a perfect 6-0 (and he has pitched well) in his road starts. But, when Chatwood is at home, the Rockies have gone 2-4 and he's been rocked to the tune of a 5.30 ERA and 6 homers allowed in 6 starts. Chatwood is facing a Padres lineup that has been swinging the bats quite well. The over is 9-4-1 in San Diego's last 14 games and the Padres have averaged 6 runs per game during this stretch. There is no doubt the Rockies should be able to pound the ball as well this afternoon. Colorado will be able to "tee off" against newly acquired Erik Johnson. He's allowed 5 homers in his 2 big league starts this season and the Padres right-hander has compiled a 6.94 ERA in those outings. In his only career start at hitter-friendly Coors Field Johnson gave up 4 earned runs on 9 hits in less than 6 innings of work. The outcome on a hot afternoon with the wind blowing out is likely to be much worse than that. Look for the over to improve to 7-3 in San Diego's Saturday games this season and to 17-10 in Rockies home games this season. This is not the venue where Johnson would have chosen to make his Padres debut. Rockies pen struggled yesterday too and the Padres starter had to exit after retiring just one batter yesterday. Both pens now will get even more work today too! *10* OVER in Colorado |
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06-10-16 | Cardinals +140 v. Pirates | Top | 9-3 | Win | 140 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* St Louis Cardinals +140 @ Pittsburgh @ 7:05 ET - Tough spot for Pittsburgh. The Pirates had to interrupt their homestand to go to Colorado for a makeup game yesterday. Pittsburgh got blasted 11-5 by the Rockies and now return home to immediately resume their home stand. The Pirates have now lost 9 of their last 13 games and I see great line value here in fading them as they certainly appear to be overpriced. Gerrit Cole gets the start for Pittsburgh and definitely has an impressive ERA on the season but he's been getting hit harder of late and that is going to catch up with him soon. "Soon" could easily be tonight as Cole has given up 32 hits in his last 25 innings of work spanning his last 4 starts. That is certainly far from the "ace status" he is being priced at in this start. The Cardinals will have Michael Wacha on the mound and the right-hander certainly has struggled this season but he is still a solid hurler that has shown some signs of snapping out of his funk. In his last two starts Wacha has given up only 10 hits while striking out 10 in the 11 innings spanning these two outings. Unlike the Pirates, the Cardinals have been heating up as they have won 8 of their last 12 games. The Cards are 9-4 this season in games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. The Pirates are only 11-16 in their games against teams with a winning record this season. *10* ST LOUIS |
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06-10-16 | Tigers v. Yankees OVER 9.5 | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in New York Yankees vs Detroit @ 7:05 ET - Even though C.C. Sabathia of the Yankees has been pitching quite well, the Tigers have the firepower to give him some trouble here. Detroit has averaged 6 runs per game in their last 9 games. Sabathia has struggled (and was unable to complete 5 innings) in two of his three home starts this season. The Yanks southpaw remains winless in home starts this season. The Tigers will have Mike Pelfrey on the mound and the veteran right-hander has been fortunate with his road ERA - to say the least! Pelfrey has a 3.81 ERA away from home this season despite producing a 1.92 in his five road starts! Pelfrey is winless on the road but, as you can see from that WHIP, he's been fortunate the damage hasn't been worse. Look for the Yankees to crush him as Pelfrey is 2-4 with a 5.68 ERA in his 7 career starts against the Yankees and 6 of the 7 games went over the total. The Yankees are 6-2 in their last 8 games and have averaged 6 runs per game during this hot streak. The Tigers, as a road dog of +125 to +175, have gone 10-5 to the over this season. That record in that price range is a solid 35-20 to the over the past three seasons combined. Coincidentally, the over is also 35-20 in all Tigers games this season. With a struggling Pelfrey on the mound, look for that season record on overs to add another easy W tonight. *10* OVER in New York Yankees |
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06-09-16 | Angels v. Yankees OVER 9 | Top | 3-6 | Push | 0 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 9 runs in New York Yankees vs Los Angeles Angels @ 7:05 ET - There were 7 homers in last night's game and I look for more of the same this evening. It will be another "hitter-friendly" night at Yankee Stadium and the Bronx Bombers have been heating up. The Yankees are averaging 6 runs and 11.4 hits per game in their last 7 games. This is a stretch that has seen the Yanks go 5-2 including winning 3 straight. The Yankees should have no trouble staying hot against Jhoulys Chacin who allowed 6 hits and walked 4 while striking out just 1 in his most recent start - an outing that lasted only 5 innings. Chacin has a 4.85 ERA on the road this season and has never made a start at Yankee Stadium in his career. It can be an intimidating venue and Chacin has certainly shown he's vulnerable to instability in highly charged situations. Emotions will be high the Angels right-hander here after struggling so badly in his most recent start and now facing a red hot Yankees lineup. The good news for Angels fans is that Chacin should at least get plenty of run support in this one. That's because he'll be opposed by the Yankees Ivan Nova. The Yanks right-hander has been struggling badly with a 1-2 mark and 6.27 ERA in his last 3 starts. Nova has allowed 4 homers in these 3 games and, by the way, all 7 of the homers Chacin has allowed this season have come in his 7 road starts! As for Nova, he has also been hit hard by the Angels in his career starts against them. Nova has a 5.19 ERA in his career against the Angels and 5 of the 7 games went over the total. The past three seasons, when the Angels enter a game on a losing streak of 3 games or more, the over is 19-10. Also, when off of game where they allowed 10 runs or more, the over has gone 11-4. The Yankees, in 10 games this season as a home favorite of -125 to -150, have had only 3 unders. *10* OVER in NY Yankees |
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06-09-16 | Pirates v. Rockies OVER 11.5 | Top | 5-11 | Win | 100 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 11.5 runs in Colorado vs Pittsburgh @ 5:10 ET - Of course Coors Field is known for very light air but, based on the weather conditions today and the fact that this game starts at 3 PM local time, the ball should be carrying extremely well in Denver Thursday. Warm temperatures, light winds, ultra dry air, clear skies, it is set up to be a hitters paradise in Colorado today. Of course 11.5 is a big number but don't let that scare you away. There should be scoring early and often in a situation like this. It is a makeup game so Pittsburgh flew in just for this game. The Rockies are happy to be beginning a homestand and will be facing a pitcher, Jeff Locke, who had a solid start at Colorado earlier this season but that was on a cool evening in April. Conditions will be much different today and Locke allowed 10 earned runs on 18 hits in 12 and 1/3 innings in his two prior starts at Colorado. The over is an incredible 9-2 in Locke's 11 starts this season. He'll be opposed by Chad Bettis and he is 0-3 with an 11.47 ERA and a 2.40 WHIP in his last 3 starts as he's been getting absolutely rocked in recent outings. Bettis, despite allowing 4 earned runs on 10 hits in only 5 innings of work, saw his last start stay under the total but previously only one under had been recorded in his last six starts. The over is 17-5 in Pittsburgh's games against teams with a losing record this season. The over is also 15-7 in Pirates day games this season and the over is 17-9 when they are off of a loss. The over is 10-5 in Rockies home games with a posted total of 11 or 11.5 runs this season. Interestingly the over is 5-0 in Colorado's Thursday games this season and the Pirates are 4-1 to the over on Thursdays! This combined 9-1 (90%) trend is tested here. *10* OVER in Colorado |
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06-08-16 | Astros v. Rangers OVER 9 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 16 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* OVER 9 in Texas vs Houston @ 8:05 ET - Yesterday's game was a pitchers duel between Dallas Keuchel and Cole Hamels but I expect today's game to play out much differently based on this pitching match-up. The Astros Doug Fister has a 4.91 ERA in his career starts against Texas. The big right-hander has allowed 21 hits in the 19 innings spanning his last 3 road outings and has been fortunate the "damage" has not been worse in those outings. Fister also walked 4 in his most recent road start. In a hitter-friendly venue tonight where the ball carries very well, both he and the Rangers Yu Darvish are likely to struggle. The Texas right-hander will be making his first start on normal rest (4 days between starts) since returning from Tommy John surgery. Darvish pitched very well in his first start back but that was against an NL foe not use to facing him. In his 2nd start he faced an AL opponent and was hit harder. Tonight he faces a team that truly has been a nemesis for him. In his last two starts against the Astros, Darvish has been rocked for 12 runs (11 earned) on 19 hits in just 10 innings of work. Look for more struggles today! Prior to yesterday's under, the Astros were on a 7-2 run to the over and the Rangers were on a 6-1 run to the over. Houston is 20-9 to the over in road games this season including 6-1 to the over in those with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. The Rangers are 15-8 to the over in home games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs so far this season. *10* OVER in Texas |
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06-07-16 | Blue Jays v. Tigers +130 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 130 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play Detroit Tigers Money Line +130 vs Toronto @ 7:10 ET - Though one might expect a bounce back for the Blue Jays after getting drilled 11-0 yesterday and being outhit 15 to 3, Toronto simply isn't hitting the ball well at all right now. The Blue Jays have been held to 8 hits or less in 6 of their last 7 games and to just 4 hits or less in three straight games! Now Toronto will have to face a Tigers pitcher, Matt Boyd, who took a no-hitter into the 6th inning of his last start. Boyd has 10 strikeouts and only 1 walk in his two starts since moving into the rotation after Anibal Sanchez was moved into the bullpen. The Tigers southpaw is facing a Blue Jays team that is currently struggling at the plate and this adds up to what should be a strong performance from Boyd that gets past the 6th inning mark this time! The Detroit lefty will be opposed by the Blue Jays Aaron Sanchez. Although the Toronto right-hander has some impressive numbers on the season, Sanchez has allowed 20 hits in his last 20 innings and now faces a Tigers lineup that has been knocking the cover off of the ball lately. Detroit has averaged 7 runs and 11.7 his per game in their last 7 games. The Tigers have reached double digits in hits in 6 straight games. Detroit has won 11 of their last 14 home games. The Blue Jays, although they've been hot overall (despite not hitting the ball well) have "only" won 5 of their last 9 road games. I love having the home dog Tigers here considering how strong they have been at Comerica Park of late. *10* DETROIT |
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06-07-16 | Cardinals v. Reds OVER 9.5 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 105 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 9.5 runs +105 in Cincinnati vs St Louis @ 7:10 ET - A total of 9.5 in a national league game not played at Coors Field in Colorado certainly may seem high. But, in this case, it is absolutely justified. The wind, though not strong, will be blowing out at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati and certainly the Reds home park has earned its reputation as a hitter-friendly venue. Cincy has been swinging the bats very well. The Reds have averaged 7.1 runs per game in their last 10 games and are confident at the plate thanks to a 6-3 stretch in their last 9 games. The Cardinals enter this game off of back to back wins that saw St Louis produce a total of 13 runs on 22 hits. The over is 12-5 in the Cards last 17 games. The Reds have had just 5 unders in their last 21 games! Though Mike Leake has solid numbers for the Cardinals this season, he spent many years as a Red and Great American Ball Park was not kind to him as he notoriously produced a high ERA and a high BAA in his home outings for Cincinnati. Also, Leake comes into this start having allowed 3 homers in his last 2 starts and the Reds John Lamb comes into this outing having allowed 4 homers in his last 3 starts. The Cincinnati southpaw has a 5.58 ERA on the season and Cardinals games against left-handed starters have gone 10-4 to the over this season. Also, the over is 17-9 in St Louis road games this season and the Cards are 20-9 to the over this season when off of a win. The Reds are 4-0 to the over this season and 7-0 to the over the past three seasons combined when they are a home dog in a price range of +150 to +175. The over is 17-10 this season in Cincy home games and 15-7 in Reds divisional games. Against right-handed starters, the over is 28-12 (70%) in Cincinnati games this season. Also, after a game where they allowed 10 runs or more (keep in mind their bullpen is atrocious), the Reds have gone 5-1 to the over this season and 17-6 to the over the past three seasons combined. As you can see from all of the above, there is plenty of reason to expect this match-up to reach a total of double digits in runs. *10* OVER in Cincinnati |
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06-06-16 | Astros v. Rangers OVER 9.5 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 9.5 runs +100 in Texas vs Houston @ 8:05 ET - Yesterday the Astros were at home against the A's and their game stayed under the total. However, Houston had gone over the total in 6 of their 7 prior games. Also, the over is 7-2 this season in Astros road games where they are priced from -100 to -125. Houston is also 5-1 to the over this season in road games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. The Rangers game stayed under the total yesterday but Texas is still 14-8 to the over this season in home games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. Also, the Rangers are 5-2 to the over this season when they enter a game on a winning streak of 3 games or more. Texas will have Colby Lewis on the mound and he is known for struggling in his home starts. In 2014 he went 3-9 with a 5.90 ERA at home. Last season Lewis compiled a 5.07 ERA at home. This season Lewis has been fantastic on the road but he has a 4.50 ERA at home where he has been hit at a .288 clip. He just faced the Astros in Houston a little over two weeks ago and had success but the fact this is a quick second look for the Astros plus the fact Lewis struggles at home combines to mean this outing is likely to be quite different! Mike Fiers gets the start for Houston and his solid effort versus the Rangers a little over two weeks ago was a rarity. It produced only the 2nd under that he has had this season compared to 8 overs! The Astros are winless in Fiers road starts this season and all 3 went over the total as he has compiled an ugly 8.04 ERA away from home. The Rangers had 5 straight overs before yesterday's under. That said, look for both teams to resume their hot hitting ways Monday as the pitching match-up and home/road dichotomies of these two hurlers is likely to bring out the best in each lineup. The Rangers have averaged 6.7 runs per game in their last 10 games. The Astros have averaged 6.5 runs per game in their last 8 games. A 7-6 type game here would not surprise me in the least. *10* OVER in Texas |
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06-05-16 | Giants v. Cardinals OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 115 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 8 or 8.5 runs in St Louis vs San Francisco @ 8:05 ET - The whole world is likely to flock to the under here and I love fading the masses. What people see here is that Jake Peavy is off of back to back strong starts. However, he faced a Padres team that certainly is not known for their hitting prowess and Peavy faced a Braves team that possesses arguably the worst offense in baseball. That said, let's look at what he did before these two starts. The Giants right-hander got crushed by the Cubs in a start where he gave up 7 earned runs and didn't even last 2 innings. That start was at home but it's not like things have gone well for Peavy on the road either. He is 1-3 with a 7.20 ERA in his 5 starts away from San Francisco this season. Tonight Peavy faces a Cardinals lineup that is rejuvenated after rallying from a 4-0 deficit yesterday. The Cards have now won 5 of their last 8 games and they've averaged 7.6 runs per game in the 5 victories. As a home favorite of -125 to -150, the Cardinals are 6-1 to the over this season. When off of a win the Cards are 19-9 to the over this year. The Giants are 28-14 to the over the past three seasons when they are a road dog of +125 to +150. This season San Francisco is 15-7 to the over when off of a loss. The Giants have scored at least 4 runs in 9 of their last 11 games. San Fran should have no trouble with the offerings of Carlos Martinez. The right-hander is off of a strong start at free-swinging Milwaukee but he previously got rocked for 10 earned runs in 10 innings in his 2 prior starts and those were both in St Louis. Martinez is back home again for tonight's match-up with the Giants and, before shutting out the Brewers in his most recent start at Milwaukee, he had given up at least 4 earned runs in 4 of his last 5 starts. Struggles resume for him tonight and both line-ups are "feeling it" right now at the plate! *10* OVER in St Louis |
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06-05-16 | Mariners v. Rangers OVER 9.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 9 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 9.5 runs +112 in Texas vs Seattle @ 3:05 ET - With yesterday's 10-4 Seattle loss going over the total easily, the Mariners have now been a part of a 11 straight games going over the total! I fully expect them to make it 12 in a row on Sunday. The Mariners have averaged 7.6 runs per game during this 11 game stretch and they're matched up with a Rangers club that has averaged 6.8 runs per game during their current 8-2 run their last 10 games. As you can see, both teams are swinging the bats extremely well and neither starting pitcher today is overpowering. The Mariners Hisashi Iwakuma has allowed 5 homers in his last 3 starts and these came against Oakland, Cincinnati, and San Diego. The A's are one of the lowest scoring teams in the league and the Reds and Padres are both hitting under .240 this season! Now Iwakuma must deal with a potent (and red hot!) Rangers lineup on a mild afternoon in Texas with the wind blowing out to right field at a good clip. Iwakuma struggles against left-handed batters and the Rangers could have as many as 5 left-handed bats plus a switch-hitter (Jurickson Profar) in the lineup this afternoon. Of course the Rangers sticks are unlikely to be the only bats doing damage today. The Mariners should crush Derek Holland. Yes, the Rangers southpaw had a successful outing against them earlier this season but, in Holland's two prior starts versus the M's (including one in Texas) he gave up 12 earned runs in less than 12 innings of work! In Holland's 4 home starts this season, only one stayed under and the over is 8-3 in Iwakuma's starts this season. The over is 14-7 in Rangers home games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs this season and the over is 13-6 in Texas games against teams with a winning record this year. There is simply no reason that the Mariners shouldn't make it 12 overs in a row this afternoon! *10* OVER in Texas Sunday. |
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06-04-16 | Yankees v. Orioles OVER 9 | Top | 8-6 | Win | 106 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 8.5 runs in Baltimore vs New York Yankees @ 7:15 ET - Ivan Nova gets the start for the Yankees and he has compiled an 8.21 ERA in his last 3 starts against the Orioles. He comes into this start having allowed 4 earned runs in each of his last two starts and certainly Baltimore's lineup is filled with confidence right now! The Orioles have won 3 straight games and averaged scoring 10.3 runs per game in these three blowouts! Overall, the over is 8-1-1 in the O's last 10 games and I highly doubt that Nova is going to slow them down. Not only is Nova having some current struggles but, again, it is the match-up issue here that will be a key as the 8.21 ERA in Nova's last 3 starts against Baltimore is indicative of many Orioles hitters simply 'having his number'. The Yankees have mostly been an "under team" recently but a lot of that has also had to do with the Yanks struggles against southpaws. Saturday the Bronx Bombers will be facing a right-hander who is not overly dominant. Tyler Wilson has pitched decently since moving into the rotation but he does appear to be fading. In his last three starts, Wilson has a 5.30 ERA and has given up 4 homers. Wilson is still winless in home starts this season and in his 7 overall starts this season only 2 have resulted in an under. The over is 6-2 in Orioles Saturday games this season and the over is an incredible 12-2 in Baltimore games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs this season. The O's bullpen has been much more hittable of late and has helped result in this factoid: with allowing 10 hits to the Yanks yesterday, the Orioles have allowed double digits in hits in 5 straight games and 7 of their last 8 games! Look for more of the same today as another 6-5 game with both teams reaching double digits in hits certainly is a strong probability again today. *10* OVER in Baltimore |
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06-04-16 | Blue Jays v. Red Sox -116 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play Boston Red Sox Money Line -115 vs Toronto @ 4:05 ET - Marcus Stroman of the Blue Jays is 5-1 on the season while the Boston's Steven Wright is only 5-4 on the year. However, the fact is that the knuckle-baller Wright had a stellar 2.45 ERA on the season that is nearly half of what Stroman's ERA is so far this year. Also, while Wright seems to be getting tougher to hit with each start he makes (16 in his last 24 innings), Stroman is struggling. The Toronto right-hander has given up 43 hits in last 31 and 2/3 innings. This included a pair of outings in his most recent three starts where he got rocked for 7 earned runs each time. The Blue Jays did win yesterday's game and have been hot but this is still a Red Sox team that is tough to beat at Fenway Park. Before yesterday's loss, Boston had won 13 of their last 16 home games. The Red Sox are hitting .303 at home this season and they are the top hitting team in the majors. The Blue Jays are hitting .227 in road games this season and that ranks them right near the bottom of the entire league. The Red Sox have lost 3 straight games which matches their longest losing streak of the season. So far this year Boston is a perfect 3-0 when they enter a game on a 3-game losing streak. The Red Sox have won those 3 "bounce back" games by an average margin of 2.7 runs per game. Look for the BoSox to improve to 6-3 in Saturday games this season while dropping the Blue Jays to 2-7 in Saturday games. *10* BOSTON |
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06-03-16 | Nationals v. Reds OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Cincinnati vs Washington @ 7:10 ET - The over is 3-0 in the Nationals Gio Gonzalez last three starts. The Nats southpaw has struggled badly in the last two outings with 13 earned runs allowed in the two starts which have spanned less than 10 innings of work. Gonzalez will be opposed by the Reds Brandon Finnegan tonight. The Cincinnati southpaw has only 1 win even though he's made 11 starts this season. Finnegan is winless in his five home starts and the over is 4-1 in those 5 outings. The Red southpaw has walked 4 batters or more in 3 of his last 4 starts overall. Also, he has a 6.10 ERA in his last 4 home starts. 7 of the Nationals last 11 games have gone over the total and Washington has scored an average of 6 runs per game in their last 7 wins. The Reds have had just 1 under in their last 7 games and they've got their confidence going at the plate again thanks to a road trip that wrapped up with visits to hitter friendly Milwaukee and ultra hitter-friendly Colorado. The Reds have scored an average of 7 runs per game in their last 7 games and have averaged 11.5 hits per game in their last 6 games. With their confidence at the plate and now back home and facing a struggling Gonzalez, this should turn into a slugfest because Finnegan's struggles at home are likely to continue. The Reds southpaw faced Washington in September and struggled badly while Gonzalez faced Cincy once last season and he also struggled in that outing. As a home dog of +150 to 175 the past three seasons, the over has gone 5-0 in Reds games! Look for the over to improve to 6-2 in Washington's Friday games this season. *10* OVER 8.5 in Cincinnati |
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06-03-16 | Royals +159 v. Indians | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play Kansas City Royals +160 @ Cleveland @ 7:10 ET - Tough late loss for the Royals last night and I won't hesitate to back them again tonight. Kansas City had won 6 straight games and 13 of their last 16 before blowing last night's two-run lead by giving up one run in the 8th and two runs in the 9th for the loss. It was the Indians 2nd straight "walk-off win" but the Tribe had previously lost 7 of their last 11 games. The Royals will have their regular closer available tonight. Even though he wasn't available last night, KC still had plenty of solid bullpen arms and their pen remains one of the most vaunted in the majors. The Royals are a big dog tonight because of being on the road and because of Danny Salazar being on the mound for the Indians. The Cleveland right-hander has fantastic full-season numbers but the key is that he's faded a bit in recent outings and that hasn't been properly factored into this line. In his last two starts, Salazar has given up 6 earned runs on 14 hits in only 10 innings of work. Edinson Volquez gets the start for the Royals and his full-season road numbers don't do him justice because they've been skewed by a rare, rough performance. The fact is that Volquez has given up 3 earned runs or less in 8 of his 11 starts this season! Unlike Salazar, Volquez has actually pitched better of late and he has compiled a 3.50 ERA in his last 4 starts. The Royals are 4-1 in the 5 divisional starts that Volquez has made this season. Also, in the Indians Salazar's starts that have been decided by 5 runs or less this season Cleveland has gone 0-5. I seriously doubt the Indians are going to win this game in a blowout. That said, I am grabbing the underdog value and looking for the Indians to drop to 0-6 in Salazar starts this season that are games decided by a margin of 5 runs or less. *10* KANSAS CITY |
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06-02-16 | Red Sox v. Orioles OVER 9.5 | Top | 7-12 | Win | 107 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 9.5 runs in Baltimore vs Boston @ 7:05 ET - After yesterday's slugfest there is really no reason not to expect more of the same today. What is helping to keep the total down on this game is the impressive full season stats of Rick Porcello. That is good news because his current form is not what it was earlier this season and the Red Sox right-hander truly seems to be coming back down to earth after his surprising early season success. Porcello has given up 9 run (8 earned) on 15 hits in 11 and 2/3 innings of work spanning his last two road starts. This 6.17 ERA on the road in his last two outings could certainly balloon even more Thursday evening as he faces an Orioles lineup surging with confidence after piling up 13 runs on 14 hits in yesterday's game. Baltimore has averaged 9.3 hits and 5.5 runs per game in their last 6 games. Facing the Orioles has been a nightmare for Porcello in recent meetings as he has given up 17 earned runs on 28 hits in less than 17 innings of work spanning his last 3 starts versus the O's. The only good news for Red Sox fans tonight is that Porcello should get plenty of run support. Ubaldo Jimenez takes the mound for the Orioles tonight and he is an awful current form plus has a history of struggles versus Boston. Jimenez is 2-6 with a 7.00 ERA in his 13 career starts against the Red Sox. Also, Jimenez comes into this outing 0-3 with an 11.57 ERA in his last 3 starts. Boston has had just 2 unders in their last 9 games and the Orioles have had just 1 under in their last 6 games. The over is 12-5 in Baltimore games against teams with a winning record. Also, the over is 11-2 this season in Orioles games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. The over is 11-3 in Red Sox games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. It's "getaway day" for the BoSox today and I look for the over to improve to 5-1 in Boston's Thursday games this season. *10* OVER in Baltimore |
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06-01-16 | Diamondbacks v. Astros OVER 9 | Top | 4-5 | Push | 0 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 9 in Houston vs Arizona @ 8:10 ET - With yesterday's 8-3 win, not only have the Astros won 7 of their last 8 games, they have scored 8 runs in three straight games. Houston is averaging about 10 hits per game during this 8 game stretch and they should have no problems with the offerings of Robbie Ray. The Diamondbacks struggling southpaw allowed 5 earned runs on 9 hits (including 2 homers) to the light-hitting Padres in his most recent start. That doesn't bode well for Ray in terms of now facing a much stronger, and much hotter, lineup in the form of the Astros in Houston tonight. Ray has a 1.67 WHIP on the season so don't be fooled by his "respectable" 4.50 ERA on the season. He has been far worse on the mound than what that ERA would lead you to believe. Ray won't be the only hurler getting pounded tonight. The Astros Michael Fiers got rocked in a pitcher-friendly park in his most recent start. At Anaheim to face the Los Angeles Angels, Fiers gave up 7 earned runs in less than 4 innings of work. The Houston right-hander has allowed 10 homers in his 9 starts this season and now faces the Diamondbacks at hitter-friendly Minute Maid Park. Fiers has given up 10 earned runs in his last 10 innings against the Dbacks and Arizona has got to him for 3 homers in those two starts against him. The over is 7-2 in Fiers starts this season. The over is a perfect 4-0 in Ray's last four starts and 6 of his last 7. The over is 14-6 in Arizona's 20 games against teams with a losing record this season. The over is 9-3 in Astros games against teams with a losing record. The over is also 8-4 in Houston's games against left-handed starters this season. *10* OVER in Houston |
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06-01-16 | Red Sox -110 v. Orioles | Top | 9-13 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play Boston Red Sox Money Line -110 @ Baltimore @ 7:05 ET - This is a case of two teams heading opposite directions. With yesterday's 6-2 win the Red Sox have now won 8 of their last 12 games. Boston has averaged 6 runs per game during this stretch and they continue to prove that they are the top offense in all of baseball. As for the Orioles, yesterday's loss drops them to 4-8 in their last 12 games. The O's have been held to 3 runs or less in 8 of those 12 games! In home games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs, Baltimore has gone a money-burning 13-19 the last 3 seasons. The Red Sox are 23-11 in night games this season and this evening I look for them to improve to 8-2 in Wednesday games with a another solid win. Boston's Joe Kelly is off of a rough start against Toronto but it had a lot to do with having trouble with Josh Donaldson. Overall, Kelly has looked quite strong since returning from the disabled list as he has struck out 15 in 11 and 1/3 innings. The Red Sox right-hander should enjoy success against the free-swinging Orioles. Baltimore will have Mike Wright on the mound and Wright has not been "right" of late! He has only lasted more than 5 and 1/3 innings ONCE in his last FOUR starts. Wright has a 5.16 ERA this season and has an 11.25 ERA in his career outings versus the Red Sox. This is a great spot to back the #1 team in the AL against a struggling divisional foe who also has a subpar pitcher on the mound. HOT versus NOT here and that raises this play to my highest rating. *10* BOSTON |
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05-31-16 | Rays v. Royals OVER 8 | Top | 5-10 | Win | 100 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 8 in Kansas City vs Tampa Bay @ 8:15 ET - With yesterday's 6-2 win, the Royals are not only 7-0 to the over in their last 7 games, Kansas City has averaged 7 runs per game and 12 hits per game during this red hot stretch. I expect the Royals to remain on fire at the plate as they face the Rays Drew Smyly tonight. The Tampa Bay southpaw has begun to struggle after a strong start to the season. Smyly has given up 8 earned runs in his last two starts and has allowed four homers during this rough stretch. Smyly also has allowed three homers in his last two starts against the Royals. This gives us what we need for one half of the slugfest tonight as the Royals are also 3-1 to the over this season when they enter a game on a winning streak of 3 games or more and the over is 6-2 in Kansas City's Tuesday games this season. The Rays should also enjoy plenty of success at the plate tonight. The Royals will be sending Dillon Gee to the mound and the right-hander is 1-2 with a 5.65 ERA and a 1.75 WHIP in his three starts since moving into the rotation. The over is 9-1-1 in the Rays last 11 road games and after a loss this season (26 before yesterday's defeat), an under has resulted in the next game just 10 times in 26 occurrences. Look for the Rays sticks to respond after a tough time in their last two games. Gee just isn't getting the job done right now for the Royals and the Rays sticks will take advantage. Take advantage of the low total here and, as long as we hold off the rain in this one (could be scattered storms in the KC area tonight) we should be able to cash a rather easy over in this one. *10* OVER in Kansas City |
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05-30-16 | Nationals v. Phillies +128 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line +133 vs Washington @ 7:05 ET - The Phillies got swept in their first series of the season by the Reds. All way since that ugly start in early April, Philadelphia managed to avoid another series sweep. That held all the way up until this latest series. The Phillies got swept by the Cubs and they'll look to respond now that they are back home where they have gone 9-4 in their last 13 games. Jeremy Hellickson held the Nationals to 0 earned runs on just 2 hits in 7 innings of work when he most recently faced them. In his last 3 starts he's gone 2-1 with a 2.25 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP and the Phillies are 3-1 in his home starts this season. The Nationals Tanner Roark has allowed 19 hits in 18 and 2/3 innings in his last 3 starts. The Nats have lost 7 of his last 10 starts this season including 3 of his 4 road starts this year. In his most recent start at Philadelphia he got absolutely crushed for 8 earned runs on 12 hits in 3 and 1/3 innings. The Nationals are off of a big win at St Louis but they had previously lost 5 of their last 8 games and had been held to 4 runs or less in 7 of their last 9 games. The Phillies are 7-3 this season as a home dog in a price range of +100 to +150. The Phils are also 12-7 this season in their games against teams with a winning record. Home dog value is off the charts here as Hellickson comes out strong again versus the Nationals while Roark finds Citizens Bank Park to be a nightmare again. *10* PHILADELPHIA |
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05-30-16 | Twins v. A's OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 22 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 8.5 runs in Oakland vs Minnesota @ 4:05 ET - The A's game stayed under the total but Oakland had previously gone over the total in 4 of their last 6 games and they did notch 4 runs on 9 hits in yesterday's game. Oakland is now averaging 5 runs per game and 9 hits per game in their last 7 games. The Athletics are 16-10 to the over in the month of May. The Twins have had just 6 unders in their 25 games in the month of May. Minnesota comes into Monday's game having gone over the total in 6 straight games. The Twins have averaged 5.5 runs per game during this stretch as they have finally got their bats going and the A's Kendall Graveman is unlikely to slow them down! Graveman has a 5.36 ERA on the season and a 1.85 WHIP in his last 3 starts! In other words, he's been allowing way too many baserunners and the way the Twins are swinging the bats right now (3 homers yesterday in Seattle) allowing too many baserunners will get Graveman into trouble in a hurry in this one. The Twins Ervin Santana comes into this game off of an ugly start versus Kansas City. He allowed 6 earned runs on 9 hits in less than 4 innings of work! Santana has a 1.62 WHIP in road games this season and the right-hander is facing a very confident A's team at Oakland this afternoon. With back to back wins and piling up 26 hits in their last two games, the A's should have no trouble with the offerings of Santana this afternoon. The over is 18-9 this season in Twins games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. When off of a win the over is 11-3 in Minnesota games this season. Also, the past three seasons combined the over is 23-10 when the Twins enter a game on a winning streak of 3 games or more and this includes a perfect 3-0 mark to the over this season. *10* OVER in Oakland |
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05-29-16 | Giants v. Rockies OVER 10.5 | Top | 8-3 | Win | 106 | 8 h 40 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 10.5 runs +105 in Colorado vs San Francisco - These teams combined for 15 runs yesterday and it should be more of the same today. Johnny Cueto of the Giants comes into this game with great overall numbers on the season but he now goes from back to back starts against light-hitting Padres in pitcher-friendly parks to facing a dangerous Rockies lineup in the most hitter-friendly ball park in the league. Also, being an afternoon game and with extra dry air expected at Coors Field today, it will be a challenge for Cueto. He did face the Rockies earlier in May and did have success despite allowing 8 hits but that start was in San Francisco. He has had some success at Coors Field in past years but Colorado is hitting .294 at home so far this season while averaging 5.5 runs. The Rockies are averaging nearly 5 runs per game in day games this season while the Giants are averaging 5.6 runs per game under the sun this season. San Francisco should have no troubles with the offerings of Chris Rusin today. The Giants are hitting .272 against lefties this season and the southpaw got absolutely crushed by the Giants when he faced them at San Francisco in early May. Now he must take them on at Coors Field where he has a 4.97 ERA this season and had a 5.29 ERA last season. Rusin is 11-21 in his MLB career and has been hit at a .295 clip in the bigs. Couple that with the fact he's facing a Giants lineup that just put up 10 runs yesterday and he's facing them at Coors Field and you have the opportunity for him to take another pummeling like he did at AT & T Park earlier this month. The over is 13-6 in Giants day games this season and I look for another one here. *10* OVER in Colorado |
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05-29-16 | Tigers v. A's OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -104 | 8 h 36 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 8.5 runs -105 in Oakland vs Detroit @ 4:05 ET - The Tigers full season batting stats against left-handed pitchers are not that impressive but Detroit has hit southpaws better recently. Detroit got to the A's Manaea for 9 hits in 6 innings and they also got to the Rays Smyly for 7 hits in 6 and 1/3 innings. Both these outings occurred within the past 9 days and I look for the Tiger to enjoy some success against Rich Hill of the A's this afternoon. Yes he's been pitching extremely well this season but the Oakland left-hander is 1-3 with a 3.79 ERA in home starts this season so it's not like he has been flawless this season. Additionally, the Tigers already faced Hill in late April so they will be getting a rather quick second look at him. The A's lineup will also be getting a rather quick second look at the Tigers Mike Pelfrey whom they pounded them and I look for even better success in the rematch. Pelfrey remains winless on the season and he's allowed 18 hits (including 4 homers) in the 11 and 1/3 innings spanning his last two starts. Pelfrey is 0-3 with a ridiculous 11.04 ERA in his 3 career starts against Oakland. The Athletics pounded out 17 hits in yesterday's 12-3 win over the Tigers and they should no problem with Pelfrey as the over improves to 17-9 in Oakland's games this month. As for Detroit, the over is a perfect 6-0 in their Sunday games this season. Also, the over is an insane 16-2 in Tigers day games this season. Also, when off of a game where they allowed 10 runs or more, the over is 21-12 in Detroit games the past three seasons combined. *10* OVER in Oakland |
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05-28-16 | Astros v. Angels OVER 7.5 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -118 | 15 h 56 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 7.5 runs in LA Angels vs Houston @ 10:05 ET - Last season Dallas Keuchel was phenomenal at home but much more hittable on the road. This season he's getting roughed up both home and away and a start at Anaheim against the Angels is unlikely to help matters. Keuchel is 1-4 on the road with a 6.57 ERA this season. In his last 3 starts the southpaw is winless with an 8.84 ERA. Even though the Angels Jered Weaver is off of a strong start, he previously allowed 12 runs (11 earned) on 19 hits in 11 innings of work spanning his last two starts. Home runs allowed have been a big problem for Weaver with 11 homers in 9 games and the Astros do have a potent, dangerous, powerful lineup that has enjoyed some longball success against Weaver in his career outings against them. The over is 3-0 in Keuchel's last 3 starts and also 5-1 in his road starts this season. The Angels lineup has been heating up and should have no trouble with Keuchel's offerings. With their 7-2 win yesterday, the Angels have scored at least 7 runs in 7 of their last 13 games. The Astros haven't been scoring a lot of late but Weaver does not have overpowering stuff and will prove to be a good match-up for them tonight. The over is 6-3 in the Angels last 9 games and 15-9 in the month of May overall. The over is 10-1 in Astros road games where they are priced from -100 to -150 this season! When playing against a team with a losing record, the over is 6-2 in Astros games this season. *10* OVER 7.5 in LA Angels |
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05-28-16 | Cardinals +125 v. Nationals | Top | 9-4 | Win | 125 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play St Louis Cardinals Money Line +125 @ Washington @ 7:15 ET - On the surface this looks like a great spot for the Nationals. The Nationals Gio Gonzalez has great numbers on the season while the Cardinals Adam Wainwright does not. Additionally the Nats have home field edge here. However, the key here is current form of the pitchers as well as the lineups here. With yesterday's 6 to 2 loss, the Nationals have now lost 5 of their past 7 home games! The Nats have been held to 2 runs or less in 8 of their last 13 games. That type of sputtering offense is unlikely to see improvement as they now take on a surging Wainwright. The Cardinals have won each of his last 6 starts and he has produced quality starts in 4 of his last 5 outings. The Cards did not hit the ball well yesterday but they got the big hits they needed against a tough Max Scherzer. They will enjoy much better success against a struggling Gonzalez. The Washington left-hander got crushed by the Mets in his most recent start and the southpaw has allowed 21 hits (including 4 homers) in the 16 innings spanning his last 3 starts. The Nationals lineup hasn't faced Wainwright since April of 2014 (a dominating shutout win for him) while the Cardinals will be facing Gonzalez for the 4th time dating back to April of 2014. Familiarity can lead to success for a lineup and the Cardinals - averaging 5.6 runs per game in their last 9 games - should get to Gonzalez early and often in this one. Yesterday marked the 6th time in their last 7 home games that Washington was held to 2 runs or less. Conversely, the Cardinals have scored at least 6 runs in 5 of their last 9 games and they win their 7th straight Wainwright start today. *10* ST LOUIS |
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05-27-16 | Yankees v. Rays OVER 7 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -115 | 23 h 41 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 7 runs -115 in Tampa Bay vs New York Yankees @ 7:10 ET Friday - The Yankees struggled again against a southpaw yesterday. It looked like the right spot for them to snap out of their funk against lefties but it continued. The good news Friday is that they face a right-hander instead of a lefty. The other good news is that it's a righty who has been struggling of late. Chris Archer gets the start for the Rays Friday and he has been struggling as evidenced by his 7.71 ERA and 1.86 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Also, even though he has great career stats against the Yankees, Archer has lost his last two starts against the Yanks while allowing 7 runs (6 earned) in 12 and 1/3 innings of work. 7 walks and 2 homers were also a problem in those two outings which both occurred in September. Before their 3-1 loss yesterday, the Yankees had won 6 of their past 7 games while averaging 5 runs per game. Their offense will get right back on track against a struggling righty. As for the Rays offense, they got embarrassed in yesterday's 9-1 loss to Miami. Tampa Bay had averaged 6.5 runs per game in their 11 prior games. They should resume their hot hitting against Masahiro Tanaka of the Yankees. The Yanks right-hander just faced the Rays about five weeks ago so that should help in the rematch. Additionally, Tanaka comes in struggling a bit as he's compiled a 5.21 ERA in his last three starts overall. The over is 2-1 in those starts and the over is 3-0 in Archer's last three starts. With yesterday's 9-1 loss, the over is now 11-3-1 in the Rays last 15 games. The Yankees respond to facing a righty tonight (6-2 and 5 runs per game in their last 8 vs right-handers) and this one soars over the low number. *10* OVER in Tampa Bay |
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05-26-16 | Blue Jays v. Yankees OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 7 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 8.5 runs -115 in New York Yankees vs Toronto @ 4:05 ET - J.A. Happ made 10 daytime starts while with the Mariners last season and he went 0-4 with a 6.75 ERA. The prior season he was with the Jays and he had a 4.75 ERA in his daytime outings. Happ also had a 5.67 ERA in away games that year while with the Jays. With the M's last season he went 2-4 with a 5.98 ERA in games away from home. The point is that an afternoon match-up on a warm afternoon in the Bronx with the wind likely blowing out toward left field is not a good match-up for the left-hander. The Yankees just saw him last month and they should fare much better in the rematch given the conditions and the fact that they now get to face him on their home turf. The Yanks will need to score plenty to stay in this game today because their starter, C.C. Sabathia is likely to get rocked. I am fully aware that he had a good first start when he first came off of the DL but, like Happ, Sabathia is a guy who has struggled in day games in recent seasons. Sabathia has a 5.06 ERA in his 2 daytime starts this season, 7.36 ERA last season, 8.38 ERA in 2014, and a 4.71 ERA in 2013. The over is 5-1 this season in Yankees home games where they are priced from -100 to -125. Sabathia has given up 13 runs (12 earned) on 24 hits in his last 18 innings of work against the Blue Jays spanning his last 3 starts against them. Happ gave up 2 homers in just 5 innings in his last start in the Bronx and though he is off of a good start at Minnesota he was previously rocked by Tampa Bay in an ugly outing in his prior start which lasted only 2 innings. More of the same here. *10* OVER in NY Yankees |
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05-26-16 | Marlins v. Rays OVER 6.5 | Top | 9-1 | Win | 100 | 5 h 22 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 6.5 runs -120 in Tampa Bay vs Miami @ 1:10 ET - These teams are both swinging the bats quite well and yet we've seen back to back unders in this series the past two games. The teams fell just short of going over the total in each of the last two games even though they combined for 39 hits. A key problem, as you would expect, is wasted opportunities, and the teams have left 37 men on base in the past two games. The fact that each of the last two games failed to go over the total and the fact that today's pitching match-up makes it "look like" this should be a low-scoring game is combining to give us tremendous value with the over. Even though the Marlins Jose Fernandez is throwing very well right now, he has struggled against the Rays. Tampa Bay has proven to be a bit of a nemesis for him as he's gone 0-2 with a 5.79 ERA and a 2.04 WHIP in his two career starts at Tropicana Field. While the Rays also have a "red hot" pitcher on the mound this afternoon and he did have a successful outing against the Marlins last season, Drew Smyly could be in trouble here. Miami is hitting left-handed pitching at a .295 clip so far this season! They have dominated southpaws as only one team (Boston) out of all 30 MLB teams has a higher batting average against lefties. Though Smyly has a "decent" ERA at home this season he is 0-3 in his home starts and he comes into this outing off of three road starts where he's compiled a 5.51 ERA and a 1.65 WHIP. Giving up too many homers has been a problem and even if Yelich and Stanton are not in the lineup today the Marlins still have plenty of hitters with pop for extra bases...especially against lefties as they've hit so well against southpaws. The over is 41-28 the last 3 seasons combined in Marlins games against southpaws. The over is 21-11 the last three seasons in road games where Miami is priced between -100 and -125. The over is 13-8 this season in Marlins games against teams with a losing record. *10* OVER in Tampa Bay |
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05-25-16 | Rockies v. Red Sox OVER 9 | Top | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 9 runs in Boston vs Colorado @ 7:10 ET - The Rockies Chad Bettis could be a little "off" for this start. His last scheduled start was Sunday and he threw just one inning before the game got cancelled due to rain. Needless to say his routine could be a bit off after the rain-shortened start and now taking the ball on Wednesday for his first "full start" in over a week. Facing one of the toughest lineups in baseball in one of the most hitter-friendly ballparks in MLB is also not going to do Bettis any favors here. The Red Sox are on an 11-4 run and have averaged 7.5 runs per game during this 15 game hot streak at the plate! Boston will have knuckle-baller Steven Wright on the mound this evening. He has produced solid stats so far this season but if you look at the teams he has faced all of his opponents are ranked in the bottom half of the league in batting average or runs scored or BOTH. The point is that a dangerous Rockies lineup could definitely do some serious damage against him Wednesday night. The Rockies are hitting .297 on the season and the over is 31-20 the last 3 seasons combined in Colorado games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. The over is 7-2 this season in Red Sox games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. The over is also 16-9 in Boston games this season when they are off of a win. Look for the Red Sox hitters to stay hot at the plate while the Rockies join in for some offensive fireworks tonight in weather conditions that are very favorable for the hitters Wednesday at Fenway Park. *10* OVER in Boston |
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05-25-16 | Padres v. Giants OVER 7.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -111 | 8 h 38 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 7.5 runs in San Francisco vs San Diego @ 3:45 ET - The Giants offense got back on track in yesterday's 8-2 win and I expect another big game from them here. But it also won't surprise me to see the Padres match San Francisco run for run in this one. That's because the Giants will have Jake Peavy on the mound and he is 1-5 with an 8.21 ERA and a 1.90 WHIP this season. Peavy has given up at least 4 earned runs in 6 of his 9 starts this season. Even though the Padres have one of the weaker lineups in baseball, they should have no problems getting to Peavy in an afternoon game with the wind blowing out in San Francisco. As for the Giants hitters', they will be seeing the Padres James Shields for the 3rd time already this season. Even though Shields hasn't given up many runs in those two starts there certainly are some noteworthy stats that show he could be on the cusp of getting crushed by the San Francisco lineup this afternoon. Shields walked 4 in the first start and then allowed 9 hits in a start that lasted less than 7 innings in his 2nd start against the Giants. That outing came just last week and will help ensure that the San Francisco bats are "honed in" on Shields' offerings today. Look for the over to improve to 8-2 this season in Peavy's starts and also 4-2 in the Padres last 6 games. The over is 12-5 in Giants day games this season and 74-56 the last 3 seasons combined. *10* OVER in San Francisco |
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05-24-16 | Diamondbacks v. Pirates OVER 8 | Top | 1-12 | Win | 100 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 8 runs in Pittsburgh vs Arizona @ 7:05 ET - The Diamondbacks were off yesterday but they are on 5-1 run to the over through Sunday. In those 6 games Arizona has averaged 6.5 runs per game and they may surprise some today in terms of the damage they are capable of against Francisco Liriano of the Pirates. They got to him for two homers earlier this season in their game against the Pittsburgh southpaw and it marked the 2nd straight time that the Dbacks have gotten to him for at least 4 earned runs. Arizona is likely to again give Liriano some trouble Tuesday as he has allowed 10 earned runs on 16 hits (including 4 homers) in his last two starts which have spanned 11 and 2/3 innings. That's good news for the Diamondbacks because they'll need all the runs they can get today. That's because Arizona is starting Shelby Miller today and the right-hander has looked like he's throwing batting practice in recent outings. Miller has given up 17 hits in his last two starts and he's been fortunate that he's allowed only 3 earned runs in each outing as the 17 hits and 4 walks have been accumulated in just 11 and 1/3 innings of work. In other words Miller's current form shows him allowing about 2 baserunners per inning. That's not going to bode well for a match-up with a Pirates team that has won 6 of their last 8 games and has averaged 6.3 runs per game in those six victories. Pittsburgh has been red hot at the plate and, with yesterday's over versus Colorado, the Pirates are now 11-1 to the over this season in games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. The over is also 6-0 in Pittsburgh's Tuesday games this season. When playing against a team with a losing record, the over is 11-5 in Pirates games so far this year. The Diamondbacks have averaged 5.2 runs per game this season in games where the opposition started a southpaw. The Pirates are hitting .288 in home games this season. This has all the makings of a high-scoring battle between these foes Tuesday. *10* OVER in Pittsburgh |