Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
10-24-20 | West Virginia v. Texas Tech +3 | Top | 27-34 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
Big 12 Game of the Year - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #356 Saturday 10* Top Play Texas Tech Red Raiders (+) vs West Virginia Mountaineers @ 5:30 ET - This is a great spot to back a home dog. The Red Raiders are off a bye week which followed 3 straight losses. They are making a change at QB and I like the move and they have had extra time to prepare for this week's game which means its "all systems go" and I expect a jolt of energy for the team. While on paper it looks like the Mountaineers have the much better defense, note that the Red Raiders have faced some tough competition (like Texas) that ran up their stats in a negative way on the defense side of the ball. West Virginia faced a bad Kansas team and a Baylor team with a new coach and struggling with covid-related issues. The Mountaineers also had a game against Eastern Kentucky. Their only truly tough game was against Oklahoma State and they got rolled by two touchdowns. Lubbock, TX is not an easy place to play and that is particularly true for a Big 12 team that is based in West Virginia! The situation is perfect for the Red Raiders and they are hungry for a win and very hungry for a home win too as this is their first home game since they let a huge late lead slip away against rival Texas a month ago. The home team gets back on track here and I am glad to have the added insurance of the 3 points too with this home dog. 10* TEXAS TECH |
|||||||
10-24-20 | Tulane v. Central Florida OVER 71 | Top | 34-51 | Win | 100 | 21 h 12 m | Show |
Top Total Annihilation - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #331 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Central Florida Knights vs Tulane Green Wave @ 2 ET - The Knights are an offensive juggernaut and the Green Wave won't be able to stop them here. UCF averages 90 offensive plays per game and that makes them the fastest team in the nation in terms of pace on offense. The Knights also can't wait for this game because they are off back to back losses. Central Florida, amazingly, scored only 26 points on 455 yards of offense in their lone home game this season. As you can see, the points were not commensurate with the yardage in that one and that is helping to lead to value in this one. Value with a total over that is set in the 70+ range? Yes, value! The most recent game for the Knights saw them lose 50-49 at Memphis! The aforementioned strange home result of 26 points is the only time this season in 4 games that UCF hasn't scored at least 49 points. Now Central Florida takes on a Tulane team that has allowed an average of 43 points per game the last two weeks. The over is a perfect 4-0 in the last 4 Green Wave games. The over is 3-1 in UCF's 4 games this season and that lone exception was a strange result for sure. The story line here is that Tulane has a powerful ground game (even without RB Tyjae Spears) and the Knights have a potent passing game. When you match that up with the defenses this one spells trouble on both sides because UCF can not stop the run and Tulane can not stop the pass. UCF will again score at least 49 here and Tulane has averaged 36.4 points per game this season. The numbers are truly off the charts here with the Knights offense averaging 636.2 yards per game but their D giving up 517.8 yards per game. Yes their games are averaging 1,154 yards this season. That is crazy but true. When you factor that in along with the fact that UCF is off back to back losses, you have the ideal situation because the Knights won't take their foot off the gas here but they can not stop anyone on the other side of the ball and I expect the Green Wave to score quite well too. That should result in this game getting into the 80s. If you like seeing the scoreboard lit up this is the place to be on Saturday afternoon! 10* OVER in Central Florida |
|||||||
10-24-20 | Manchester City v. West Ham United OVER 3.5 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 27 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach English Premier League Rotation #200113 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in West Ham United vs Manchester City @ 7:30 AM ET - Beautiful set-up here as Manchester City has scored at least 4 goals in each of their last 5 visits to West Ham at the London Stadium. That is the Hammers new home and it has suited these visitors very well. However, West Ham does come into this game with plenty of confidence and might be able to score right along with Manchester City in this one. West Ham rallied from a 3-goal deficit last weekend to earn a draw with Tottenham. In terms of goal-scoring ability, the Hammers have now scored at least 3 goals in 3 straight games! That is why I am projecting a very high-scoring fixture in this one. West Ham, based on current level of play and with being on their home pitch, has plenty of confidence here. However, the Hammers won't be able to stop Manchester City as their long-term dominance against West Ham is likely to continue. After all, that is why they are such a pricey favorite in this one. The Hammers scored 4 in their most recent home game and I am expecting at least 2 goals from each side in this one and then eventually Manchester City pulls away for a 4-2 or 4-3 type of victory which is why I am happy to grab the plus money being offered at the over 3.5 goals in this one. 10* OVER the total in West Ham United |
|||||||
10-23-20 | Dodgers v. Rays +142 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #956 Friday 10* Top Play Tampa Bay Rays Money Line (+) vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 8:08 ET - The Dodgers, of course, are a fantastic team. But they are also a public team and, as a result, the odds makers have that adjustment baked into their numbers. What a mean here is that to get a balanced book the have to overprice the Dodgers. The simple fact is Los Angeles has no business opening up as a -160 favorite in this match-up. I am not saying LA won't find a way to win this game, I am just saying the value is clearly with the underdog in this one and I will be betting them again here in Vegas where I live. The fact is that the Rays seem to have the better bullpen in this match-up and they also now have the added edge of being the designated home team for this match-up. Though Walker Buehler has been strong in this post-season, so too has Charlie Morton. Also, Morton is the type of hurler that can keep this Dodgers lineup off balance with his repertoire of pitches. Guys that are simply hard throwers like Tyler Glasnow have shown to have more trouble against the Dodgers but guys who are a little more crafty on the mound, like Blake Snell, prove to be another challenge altogether. Morton is 3-0 with an 0.57 in this post-season and, overall, 5-0 with a 0.70 ERA in his 5 post-season starts with the Rays. Considering that as well as their stellar bullpen and the fact that some key hitters broke slumps in Game 2, there is no way in the world I am not going to back them in a +140 price range here. 10* TAMPA BAY |
|||||||
10-23-20 | Illinois v. Wisconsin -18.5 | Top | 7-45 | Win | 100 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #388 Friday 10* Top Play Wisconsin Badgers (-) vs Illinois Illini @ 8 ET - It is RARE for me to lay this many points and the situation has to be special for me to ever do it. We have a VERY special situation here. The Badgers were 6-0 last season and destroying everyone they encountered before a trip to Illinois for their 7th game of the season. Wisconsin was a 4 TD favorite in that game and they LOST! It was absolutely one of the MOST unlikely upsets of the entire CFB season. Coming into this season the Badgers are expected to be at the top of the Big Ten West while the Illini are projected to be at the very bottom of the Big Ten West. This game is a complete mismatch. I am fully aware of the QB injury for the Badgers Coan but Mertz is a highly skilled QB that will have very little trouble going against this weak Illini defense. The last two times that the Illini visited Camp Randall they lost by an average of 37 points per visit. Wisconsin's last 3 season openers have been won by an average margin of 43 points! Normally I don't lay big points because of the fear of backdoor covers or a team taking their foot off of the gas late. That is not going to be the case here. The Badgers don't want to just win this game, they want to pulverize Illinois in this game. Though Wisconsin has some injury issues at the skill positions on offense they still will have plenty of firepower and their ground game will push the Illini defense all over the field as the Badgers O-line bullies the Illinois D-line. The strength of the Badgers is their defense and I can't see Illinois scoring much at all in this game yet the posted total on this game opened up at 52.5 points! What does that tell you? The odds makers are expecting Wisconsin to score plenty in this game and I concur. Badgers roll by at least 4 TDs in my opinion. 10* WISCONSIN |
|||||||
10-23-20 | Leeds United v. Aston Villa OVER 3 | Top | 3-0 | Push | 0 | 5 h 25 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach English Premier League Rotation #200085 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Aston Villa vs Leeds United @ 3:00 PM ET - This fixture features two clubs that have surprised early this season. As a result, plenty of confidence for both clubs and I expect this to result in a rather high-scoring fixture. Adding to the value here is the fact that Leeds United has some injuries to the defense but has also seen some firepower recently return at the other end of the pitch with the return of Pablo Hernandez. He has performed well against Aston Villa (involved in 6 goals in 7 starts against them) and could be a key in keeping Leeds United in this match. I know Aston Villa has not allowed many goals this season but Leeds United will challenge them and has played well against quality competition early on in this campaign. Look for plenty of goals here as Aston Villa has scored an average of 3 goals per fixture this season. Leeds United matches have averaged totaling 3.6 goals. This total did move from an opener to a 2.5 to a 3 and of course I would prefer to have the 2.5 but the move is justified and the situation still demands my highest rating plus now we're not laying big juice at the over 3 goals like we would have been at 2.5 goals. I like the value from that viewpoint! 10* OVER the total in Aston Villa |
|||||||
10-22-20 | Giants v. Eagles -3.5 | Top | 21-22 | Loss | -109 | 74 h 34 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #304 Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (-) vs New York Giants @ 8:20 ET - This line made a major move on Monday around 2 PM ET (11 AM PT here in Vegas where I live). I watched the screens light up as the Eagles line got pounded down. The thinking process here by the betting markets must be that the odds makers have no idea about injury situations and don't watch the games. They saw Miles Sanders get hurt and they were aware of the Zach Ertz injury. Yet they still posted this line near a -7 which is where it belongs. But now due to false market perception this line has been driven down to a 3.5 which is basically saying the Giants and the Eagles are equal teams if they played on a neutral field. I vehemently disagree with this assessment. Note that as good as Zach Ertz is, the fact remains he has averaged only 16 receiving yards per game the past 3 weeks! He has NOT been a huge component of the Eagles offense in recent weeks. Also there is a decent chance the Eagles will get WR DeSean Jackson back for this one plus Alshon Jeffery even has an outside shot at playing too. Certainly the Sanders injury hurts but the Eagles have some other running backs they will make use of here. Their comeback against the Ravens (would have tied it if not for a late failed two point conversion) did not feature Sanders or Ertz. After going toe to toe with the Ravens now the Eagles take on a Giants team that barely hung on for their first win of the season. New York had started the year 0-5 and other than one 34 point outburst against a horrific Cowboys defense, the Giants averaged only 13.4 points per game in their other 5 games and did not top 20 in any of those games. Conversely, the Eagles have scored at least 23 points in 4 straight games and have averaged 26 points during this stretch. Again, Ertz has played little role in this too. Just look at his stats if you don't believe me. The Eagles have swept the Giants each of the past two seasons and the average margin of victory in those 4 games is 12 points. Eagles hungry for a win, Giants just got their first, Wentz starting to look better (even against powerful Ravens) and Jones for the Giants is still a very young QB trying to find his way at the NFL level. Jones now faces a dangerous defense in terms of putting pressure on opposing quarterbacks with a powerful defensive line. Grab the line value with the small home favorite that is very hungry to get back into the win column and will take care of business against a division rival once again here just like the other recent meetings. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
|||||||
10-21-20 | Rays +140 v. Dodgers | Top | 6-4 | Win | 140 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
NOTE: I suggest making this money line play with ACTION on BOTH pitchers. Game of the Year - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #953 Wednesday 10* Top Play Tampa Bay Rays Money Line (+) vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 8:08 ET - I mention action on both pitchers because the Dodgers are making this a bullpen game. Even though the Rays are expected (and very likely) to go with Blake Snell, if they decided to match the Dodgers and go with a bullpen game too I still like this play! I like the Rays bullpen over the Dodgers bullpen. In any event, lets talk about the expected starters for this game. The Rays Snell has a 2.88 ERA and has held hitters to a .225 batting average against in his 7 career post-season appearances (2019 and 2020). We got burned last night here with the Rays. But I come right back with them here because, unlike Tyler Glasnow (hard-thrower with great stuff but struggles with location and makes too many mistake pitches), Snell is more of a savvy hurler who has more than twice as many career regular season starts and won't make the same mistakes Glasnow did in Game 1. I also was wrong about Clayton Kershaw last night as he came out and dominated. People make mistakes. I made one yesterday. But I feel strongly this play will be "spot on" and love backing the Rays here as the Dodgers are expected to start Tony Gonsolin. He posted a 9.95 ERA in his two appearances against the Braves in the NLCS and likely won't last long here and that will result in two much being asked of this Dodgers bullpen. That is why I don't even care who starts here. Without a strong hurler like Kershaw or Walker Buehler (being saved for Game 3) getting the start for the Dodgers here, I feel that heavily favors the Rays. I like the Tampa Bay bullpen more plus Snell is 99% likely to get this start anyway (again, I am suggesting you bet this with action on both pitchers). The Dodgers have only seen Snell once in his career and he struck out 4 in 2 perfect innings against them. Having not seen much of him, and considering the quality hurler he is, this is a big edge for Snell here. Also, the Rays are on a 6-0 run (including 3-0 in this post-season) when off a loss by a multiple-run margin. They stay perfect here! 10* TAMPA BAY RAYS |
|||||||
10-20-20 | Rays +158 v. Dodgers | Top | 3-8 | Loss | -100 | 26 h 55 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #951 Tuesday 10* Top Play Tampa Bay Rays Money Line (+) vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 8:09 ET - The Rays are offering tremendous underdog line value in Game 1 of this series. Of course Clayton Kershaw still carries a certain reputation with him but he has been dealing with some back issues and gave up 4 earned runs in his most recent start. The Dodgers also used a lot of energy in coming all the way back from a 3-1 deficit against the Braves. Give them credit for sure but the fact they lost 3 of 4 before rallying the troops and the fact they scored only 3.5 runs per game in the final two games of the series has me liking the big dog Rays in this one. Tampa Bay has won 9 of 14 games in the post-season and were the only team in the regular season (other than the Dodgers) to have less than 23 losses. The Rays had 20 and the Dodgers had 17. For sure the two best teams made it to the World Series but Tampa Bay is not being given much respect with this line. Tyler Glasnow is a hard-throwing righty and though the Dodgers had some success against him that was back in 2018 and those 3 bullpen appearances were the only time they have seen him. He is a much different pitcher now. With Kershaw still not seeming to be his normal self, I feel there is great value in fading him here. 10* TAMPA BAY |
|||||||
10-19-20 | Cardinals +1.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 38-10 | Win | 100 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #275 Monday 10* Top Play Arizona Cardinals (+) @ Dallas Cowboys @ 8:15 ET - The line on this game prior to the Dak Prescott injury was Dallas -3 and it was moving toward -3.5 for sure. But then he got hurt on Sunday so the game came off the board and when it went back up it was Arizona -3. Now all week long I have patiently waited for this one as I knew "America's Team" would get their love from the betting markets and that we'd eventually get the Cardinals as a dog in this one. Sure enough the line has swung back almost to where it was with Prescott at the controls! We are now seeing 1.5 show up this morning on the Cowboys and, in all likelihood it could even climb higher. However, this is the time of day I post my picks here generally so, for me, it is now "go time" with this one. Keep in mind, the last thing the Cowboys could afford was an injury to Prescott. Why? Well because their offense is the only thing they have going for them. This team's defense is atrocious and now led by Andy Dalton at QB. He had some good years in Cincinnati for sure. The key word there however is "had". Note that in Dalton's final season there he threw nearly as many INT's as TD's and had his lowest completion percentage since his rookie season and had a career high in fumbles. Why do you think the Bengals were ready to move on? And, keep in mind, this is the Bengals we're talking about folks! The Cardinals defense will have their ears pinned back for this one (on the attack like angry dogs) and they are allowing only 20.4 points per game. As for the Cowboys defense, they have allowed 40 points per game their last 4 games and have allowed at least 34 points in all 4 of their games since a season opening 20-17 loss to the Rams. Dallas barely held on to beat the Giants last week and their only win so far this season was their miraculous 1 point win against Atlanta earlier this season. Keep in mind, Atlanta and the Giants were a combined 0-10 entering this weekend's action and the Cowboys defense allowed 73 points in those 2 victories. Unless Dallas can pull a rabbit out of the hat on defense I see them struggling against a Kliff Klingsbury coached team with Kyler Murray at QB. Both those guys have Texas roots and Murray has fond memories of games played here in Big D. In fact, Murray is 6-0 all time in games played here including 3 state championships here when he played for Allen High School and also he won a Big 12 title game here too when he was with OU. I would take Murray over Dalton all day every day and it is hard to dispute the importance of the QB in this day and age of pass-happy pro football! Plus he is a dangerous runner too. Overall the Cardinals are the better team and this Dallas defense can't stop anyone and that will end up putting a lot of pressure on Dalton in this one to try and trade scores with the Cards. I don't see that happening. 10* ARIZONA |
|||||||
10-19-20 | Wolverhampton Wanderers v. Leeds United OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 46 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach EPL Rotation #200053 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Leeds United vs Wolverhampton Wanderers @ 3 ET - This match is expected to play out with an aggressive attacking style. That is just the nature of this fixture with the way these two teams are coming into it. That said, I also certainly like the fact that Wolverhampton has underachieved early this season and comes into this match extra hungry and looking to make a statement on enemy pitch. Wolverhampton has allowed 1.8 goals per match this season and Leeds United has allowed 2 goals per match thus far on the season. I absolutely would not be surprised to see each team get to 2 markers here but at the very least we should see a 2-1 game. I don't see either team producing a clean sheet in this one. That said, I also like the fact that Leeds has averaged 2.3 goals per match this season but Wolverhampton is coming into this one desperate for points in the table after a disappointing start to the campaign. Leeds will come out with an attacking style and the Wanderers will be forced to mimic that if they want to have a shot to keep up in this match. That said, an O/U of just 2.5 goals on this fixture is truly an excellent and I won't hesitate to invest in this one. 10* OVER the total in Leeds United |
|||||||
10-18-20 | Braves +129 v. Dodgers | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
*ACTION on PITCHERS for BOTH teams* Contrarian Crusher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #909 Sunday 10* Top Play Atlanta Braves Money Line (+) @ Los Angeles Dodgers @ 8:15 ET - Similar to the other series, look for the team that rallied to come all the way back to lose in Game 7. The Astros rallied from a 3-0 deficit to force a Game 7 in the ALCS but then lost to the Rays. In this one. the Dodgers have rallied from a 3-1 deficit to force a Game 7 here in the NLCS and, similarly, I look for them to now lose to the Braves. Note that Atlanta is a perfect 5-0 the last 5 times they have entered a game off back to back losses. This is great underdog line value here considering that the Braves also were 8-1 in the post-season prior to these back to back losses. I like their lineup and they will bounce back here no matter who the Dodgers throw at them. That is undecided at the moment but what is expected is that the Braves will start Ian Anderson. The young right-hander has held opponents to a .113 batting average in his 3 post-season starts. In the regular season, Anderson held opponents to a .172 batting average in his 6 starts. The guy is very tough to hit and that continues here. Anderson has 63 strikeouts in his 48 innings of combined regular season and post-season work. My gut tells me the Braves bats bounce back here and Anderson pitches extremely well and deep into this game and that mean only the best Braves arms will be used once the rookie hurler exits the game. Grab the underdog value here! 10* ATLANTA |
|||||||
10-18-20 | Texans v. Titans OVER 53 | Top | 36-42 | Win | 100 | 5 h 42 m | Show |
AFC South Total of the Year - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #257 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Tennessee Titans vs Houston Texans @ 1 ET - The Titans have scored an average of 35.3 ppg their last 3 games. The Texans are a new team after firing coach Bill O'Brien and with Romeo Crennel taking over head coaching duties on an interim basis. Even though they threw 2 picks in last week's win (their first victory of the season) the Texans still managed 30 points and piled up a ton of yardage. However, this is still a Houston team that allowed an average of 31.5 ppg their first 4 games of the season and I expect them to struggle to contain a potent Tennessee offense on the road. The issue for the Titans (and what is helping gives us value here) is that their defense is worse than what has reflected on the scoreboard. They have benefited based on some key turnovers but that stuff usually doesn't go on forever and, now, facing a newly-inspired Texans team is likely to cause issues for the D of Tennessee. The Titans are allowing 261 passing yards per game and Houston is throwing for 275 passing yards per game. This total opened up in the mid-50s for a reason and I love the fact that it has dropped to the low 50s and feel we have great line value here with this number lower than it should be. Both teams should have no problem moving the ball up and down the field here. Yes, the Texans held the Jags to only 14 points last week but they allowed nearly 300 yards passing! Houston was helped by 2 Jacksonville fumbles. The Titans will score plenty here but will struggle to slow down the Texans. 10* OVER the total in Tennessee |
|||||||
10-18-20 | West Ham United v. Tottenham Hotspur OVER 2.75 | Top | 3-3 | Win | 100 | 17 h 29 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach English Premier League Rotation #200073 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Tottenham vs West Ham @ 11:30 AM ET - Tottenham enters this game off a 6-1 win over Manchester United in the most recent Premier League match for the Hotspur. Tottenham also had a recent UEFA Europa League Qualifying match and exploded for 7 goals in that win! Plenty of confidence for the Hotspur here but the same holds true for West Ham. They were without their manager (Covid-19) and yet responded with a pair of wins in Premier League matches by a combined score of 7-0. Though West Ham managed a clean sheet in each of those fixtures, they will face a much tougher challenge here with the way Tottenham has been finding the back of the net. That said though, can you really expect the Hotspur to stop West Ham here? The answer is absolutely not as they made some great adjustments without their manager and were able to attack better. Additionally, West Ham also had 2 recent matches in English Carabao Cup action that each reached a total of 5 or more goals. In terms of Premier League action only, thus far this season in the table, one can see that Tottenham has averaged 3 goals in their fixtures and West Ham has averaged 2 goals in their fixtures. That said, a 3-2 final actually sounds about right here as Tottenham is about a -170 money line favorite with good reason. Look for this one to be higher-scoring than one would have normally expected as West Ham will put pressure. 10* OVER the total in Tottenham |
|||||||
10-17-20 | Astros v. Rays -115 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #908 Saturday 10* Top Play Tampa Bay Rays Money Line (-) vs Houston Astros @ 8:37 ET - I will add today's keys below the following excerpts from what I wrote in a recent analysis on this match-up: Yes the markets will give support to the Astros here because they were down 3-0 in this series and then rallied to bounce back to win 3 straight games. However, the Astros got into the playoffs despite being 2 games under .500 in the regular season. That including a horrible 14 games under .500 in games away from Minute Maid Park this season. Not only that, Tampa Bay was 20 games above .500 on the year and they are now taking it to an Astros team that went 4-13 in the regular season when facing teams with a winning record. The Rays are seeking revenge from getting knocked out of the playoffs by Houston last year and, despite blowing a 3-0 series lead, they can still accomplish that objective with a win tonight. Also, Tampa Bay went 34-12 their last 46 games of the regular season. Only once during that 46-game stretch did the Rays lose 3 straight games. They responded with a resounding 11-1 win to end that streak. This one won't be that easy but I like Morton over McCullers in Game 7 just like we saw in Game 2. McCullers pitched well overall in that game but he continues to struggle with too many homers allowed in this post-season. Also, in the regular season, he struggled badly in games away from Minute Maid Park. The Rays close out the series here with a big Game 7 win at a very fair money line price! 10* TAMPA BAY |
|||||||
10-17-20 | Texas A&M v. Mississippi State +5.5 | Top | 28-14 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 32 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #143 Saturday 10* Top Play Mississippi State Bulldogs (+) vs Texas A & M Aggies @ 4 ET - No one will want Mississippi State here. After all, everyone just watched them turnover the ball like crazy and score just 2 points against Kentucky. That said, the Bulldogs have no chance here, right? After all, they are facing an Aggies team that just beat Florida and outgained the Gators by a substantial margin in doing so. In typical contrarian fashion, I actually like Mississippi State a ton in this spot. The Bulldogs beat LSU by double digits in their season opener but then laid an egg against Arkansas the very next week. As a result, there is great line value as the Bulldogs want to atone for Razorbacks defeat here as that has been their only home game so far this season. Texas A & M is 2-1 this season but they barely squeaked by Vanderbilt even though they were a 30 point favorite in that game. In fact, each of the Aggies two wins this season have been by 5 or less points. In between those two wins was a blowout loss at Alabama and the Aggies scored just 24 points in that game while Ole Miss put up 48 on the Crimson Tide the very next week. Mississippi State has revenge here for an ugly loss last year which followed 3 straight Bulldogs wins in this series. Historically the Aggies are not known for traveling well nor for coming up big in back to back big games. The home dog, as a result, is absolutely the way to go in this one. The Bulldogs defense allowing just 4.24 yards per play while Texas A & M allowing 6.75 yards per play. That is a big difference in defensive efficiency and certainly is not being properly accounted for by the betting markets in my opinion. 10* Mississippi State |
|||||||
10-17-20 | Southampton v. Chelsea OVER 3 | Top | 3-3 | Win | 100 | 15 h 20 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach English Premier League Rotation #200041 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 3 goals -103 in Chelsea vs Southampton @ 10 AM ET - Chelsea struggled to stop opponents early this season but then fixed that with the addition of goalie Edouard Mendy. However, he will not be available for this one due to injury. That means goalkeeping duties fall to a struggling Kepa Arrizabalaga or 38-year old back-up Willy Caballero. Either way I like my chances for Southampton (known as road warriors last season) to at least get 1 (if not 2) into the back of the net here. Keep in mind Southampton was one of the top teams in the league last season on the road. They earned 31 points in the table in road fixtures (#3 in the league!) compared to only 21 points earned at home. Southampton averaged scoring 1.6 goals on the road and Chelsea scored an average of 1.6 goals on their home pitch. The key here is not only Mendy being out but Chelsea's attackers are getting healthy. Also, Southampton knows they need to attack and get shots on goal to take advantage of Mendy's absence. So this game will be played with more of an aggressive attacking style. Prior to Mendy helping Chelsea to post a clean sheet in their most recent fixture, Chelsea did allow an average of 2 goals in their first 3 matches this season. That said, a 3-2 final sounds about right here as Chelsea is a 2 to 1 money line favorite with good reason. Look for this one to be higher-scoring than one would have normally expected. 10* OVER 3 goals -103 in Chelsea |
|||||||
10-16-20 | Astros v. Rays OVER 8 | Top | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 55 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #901 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros @ 6:07 ET - All 5 games in this series have totaled 7 or less runs. In typical contrarian fashion, that has me on the over in Game 6! The fact is I love this pitching match-up for an over. Yes, it was also Framber Valdez vs Blake Snell in Game 1 and that was a 2-1 game. However, that score doesn't say anything about the way that start played out for each of these hurlers. There were many scoring opportunities ruined by multiple double plays and runners caught stealing. There also were plenty of hard hit outs and now stronger contact is likely in this match-up because these hitters just faced these pitchers on Sunday. Also, the bullpen work has been solid in this series but the hitters have seen more and more of the same arms now too and they've started to do a little damage against relievers too. That said, I expect plenty of runs early, often, and throughout this contest as the set-up is truly ideal for a breakout game for both lineups in this one! 10* OVER the total in Tampa Bay |
|||||||
10-16-20 | SMU v. Tulane OVER 64.5 | Top | 37-34 | Win | 100 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #107 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Tulane Green Wave vs SMU Mustangs @ 6 ET - I am going to take advantage of the line move here. With season ending injuries to Mustangs WR Roberson and RB McDaniel we've now seen this total drop down to a 64.5 from a 69 and I love the value here. Keep in mind SMU has a very deep WR group and also a ton of talent at the RB position. Sure they would love to have Roberson and McDaniel but they will get along just fine without them as long as QB Buechele is under center as he continues to light up defenses. Buechele should certainly have no problems with this Green Wave defense. Tulane allowed 476 yards in last week's trouncing at the hands of Houston and now face an SMU offense that has averaged nearly 400 yards passing per game in their match-ups with FBS competition. As for the Mustangs defense, I do not trust them and that is why I am big on the over in this one. Tulane has a talented offense, particularly when at home, and the Southern Methodist defense has allowed at least 24 points in all 3 of its FBS games but that easily could me more. The Mustangs have been fortunate because when you look at the yardage stats in those games the fact is that SMU is struggling to get stops. The Green Wave are averaging 37 points per game this season and the Mustangs are averaging 44 points per game this season. If you like seeing the scoreboard lit up this is the place to be on Friday night! 10* OVER in Tulane |
|||||||
10-15-20 | Dodgers v. Braves OVER 9 | Top | 2-10 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #977 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Atlanta Braves vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 8:08 ET - This total opened up at a 9.5 and quickly moved to a 9. In typical contrarian fashion, I am fading the move and going with the over here. The Dodgers turned the screws on the Braves by hammering the Atlanta bullpen in the bottom of the 9th of Game 2. I know LA still ultimately fell short by a run in that game but that was a key difference maker. The Dodgers carried that momentum right into Game 3 when they exploded in the first inning for a record-setting 11-run frame. The Dodgers aren't going to slow down here against Bryse Wilson (5.91 ERA and .306 BAA in his MLB career). In fact, Wilson is unlikely to pitch deep into this game as the Braves are treating this is a bullpen game. Yes that is the same bullpen that has been involved with allowing a ton of runs to the Dodgers the last two games. In other words, this is not a good set up for the Braves pitching staff. However, with Clayton Kershaw dealing with back spasms as well as the fact that the Braves will be facing a southpaw starting pitcher for a 2nd straight game, I would not be surprised to see Atlanta match the Dodgers run for run early on this one. Maybe the Dodgers pull away late but I am not laying the big price on the money line or the run line and feel that expecting double digits in runs scored in this one is absolutely the value play in Game 4 of the NLCS. 10* OVER the total in Atlanta |
|||||||
10-15-20 | Georgia State v. Arkansas State OVER 72.5 | Top | 52-59 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
Thursday Thrasher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #105 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Arkansas State Red Wolves vs Georgia State Panthers @ 7:30 ET - Georgia State averages 81.5 plays on offense per game. That is one of the fastest paces in the nation. Arkansas State averages 6.47 yards per play on offense which ranks them in the top 15 of the nation. I know this is a big total posted on this game but it is absolutely justified in a game that I project to get into the 80s. The Panthers have a solid ground game and play fast. Remember that Arkansas State allowed 52 points to a Coastal Carolina team that also has dangerous runners. On the flip side, the Red Wolves have a very dangerous passing attack and the Georgia State secondary will absolutely struggle as the Arkansas State receivers are big and talented. The Red Wolves just played their first home game and put up 50 points! Also, they scored 35 points in an upset at Kansas State earlier this season. The Panthers also rolling with confidence here after scoring 49 points in their most recent game. The last two meetings between these teams each totaled more than 85 points and, with perfect weather expected in Jonesboro AR this evening, this one gets into that range as well. 10* OVER the total in Arkansas State |
|||||||
10-14-20 | Rays -137 v. Astros | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -137 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #971 Wednesday 10* Top Play Tampa Bay Rays Money Line (-) vs Houston Astros @ 8:40 ET - I will add today's keys below the following excerpts from what I wrote in yesterday's analysis on this match-up: Yes the markets will give support to the Astros here because they are down 2-0 in this series and need to bounce back and are the designated home team in this one. However, the Astros got into the playoffs despite being 2 games under .500 in the regular season. That including a horrible 14 games under .500 in games away from Minute Maid Park this season. Not only that, Tampa Bay was 20 games above .500 on the year and they are now taking it to an Astros team that went 4-13 in the regular season when facing teams with a winning record. Look for the Rays to take a 3-0 series lead tonight. Indeed Tampa Bay did take a 3-0 series lead with the win last night and I know the Astros desperately want to avoid getting swept out of the playoffs. However, Houston is facing the top team in the AL and all those stats above still ring true plus now the Rays have a big pitching edge in this one. Hard-throwing strikeout machine Tyler Glasnow will be very tough on the Astros hitters in this one. While TB has the strong arm of Glasnow going, Houston has to turn to the tired arm of Zack Greinke in this must win spot. Glasnow went 11-2 with a 2.90 ERA the past two seasons combined and has allowed just 9 hits in 13 and 1/3 post-season innings this year. Greinke is winless in 9 post-season starts spanning the last 3 years he has pitched in playoff action and he has compiled a 5.32 ERA in those 9 outings. Greinke went 0-3 with a 4.59 ERA in games away from Houston this season and also went 1-3 with a 6.08 ERA in his September starts. The Rays close out the sweep here! 10* TAMPA BAY |
|||||||
10-14-20 | Coastal Carolina v. UL-Lafayette OVER 57 | Top | 30-27 | Push | 0 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #169 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in UL-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns vs Coastal Carolina Chanticleers @ 7:30 ET - I really like what I have seen from Coastal Carolina's offense this season as they have scored an average of 44.3 points per game this season. Of course the Chanticleers have been helped by facing a weak schedule but confidence for QB Grayson McCall and the Coastal Carolina offense is growing immensely with each win. So this is a match-up of two undefeated teams but the fact the Chanticleers defense hasn't been tested greatly is going to be an issue here. Yes, UL-Lafayette has averaged only 28.3 points per game this season but they have faced a much tougher schedule. The Ragin' Cajuns also come into this game well-rested as they haven't played a game yet this month. Louisiana put up 48 points at Coastal Carolina last season and they certainly are capable of another strong offensive performance in this one. That is particularly true because the Ragin' Cajuns are at home and the weather forecast is great for this one. Light winds, clear skies, pleasant temperatures. I am looking for points early, often, and throughout this game. 10* OVER the total in UL-Lafayette |
|||||||
10-13-20 | Bills v. Titans +3.5 | Top | 16-42 | Win | 100 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #482 Tuesday 10* Top Play Tennessee Titans (+) vs Buffalo Bills @ 7 ET - Long-time followers know I am a contrarian across all sports but this is particularly true in the NFL. That said, I love taking the Titans in a spot like this. They are the ones that forced a cancellation of last week's game due to Covid-19. They are the ones who are 0-3 ATS on the season. Yes, I'll take Tennessee to finally get the cash at the window this week. Even though they are 3-0 SU on the season they have been a favorite all 3 weeks and have failed to cover each game. The Titans 3 games have all been decided by 3 or less points. Now that they are a dog that makes them well worth the investment here. This is especially true with the Bills moving up to a 3.5 point favorite. I know QB Josh Allen has been huge for Buffalo this season but you can bet the Titans are drawing motivation from that and also the fact that they are undefeated and at home and yet they are the underdog here! Tennessee will absolutely "bring it" in this primetime affair and, keep in mind, the Bills have the super bowl champion Chiefs up next on Sunday while the Titans have the 1-4 Texans next up on the docket. Grab the value with the home dog in this one. 10* TENNESSEE |
|||||||
10-13-20 | Braves v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 | Top | 8-7 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
ADDITION to write-up: Even though Tony Gonsolin is now the starter for the Dodgers I still like this play. The only time the Braves faced him he held them to 1 run in 4 innings last year. I realize this is his first post-season appearance but Atlanta's lack of familiarity with him is a plus. I'll give you another plus too: Gonsolin has a 2.60 ERA and has held opponents to a .186 BAA in his 20 appearances (14 starts) at the MLB level. He is capable of giving the Dodgers plenty of solid work in this start and so we stick with our bet. Here is the write-up ORIGINAL: Total Dominator - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #970 Tuesday 10* Top Play UNDER the total in Los Angeles Dodgers vs Atlanta Braves @ 6:05 ET - Globe Life Park is a pitcher friendly park. Yesterday's game was 1-1 before the Braves exploded for 4 runs in the top of the 9th. Value for the under in this one Tuesday as both starting pitchers should again dominate. Ian Anderson gets the start for the Braves and was fantastic over his last 6 regular starts - 1.95 ERA! Plus Anderson has dominated the post-season with striking out 17 in 11 and 2/3 scoreless innings spanning his two starts in the playoffs. Clayton Kershaw starts for the Dodgers here and also should dominate. He has struck out 19 in 14 innings in this post-season while allowing a total of only 3 runs. Also, Kershaw has a 0.43 ERA in his career playoff outings against the Braves. Considering the low-scoring ALCS and NLCS action thus far as well as this starting pitching match-up, the venue, and the two high-quality bullpens, this one looks like another game in which runs will be at a premium. 10* UNDER the total in the Los Angeles Dodgers game |
|||||||
10-12-20 | Chargers v. Saints OVER 50 | Top | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 14 h 35 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #477 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New Orleans Saints vs Los Angeles Chargers @ 8:15 ET - I don't trust either defense here and expect both offenses to be able to move the ball quite well in this one. The Chargers defense ranks poorly in terms of defending the pass and that was on full display when they blew a 24-7 lead and lost to Tom Brady and the Buccaneers in their most recent game. Of course Drew Brees arm is not nearly what it used to be but he still helped lead the Saints to an average of 30.8 points per game their first 4 games this season. That ranks among the best in the NFL. Though the Chargers have not scored as well, their offense actually entered this week's action ranked in the top ten in the NFL based on yardage per game. That said, Los Angeles may not have trouble finding the end zone against this New Orleans team. The Saints are allowing an average of 30.8 points per game on the year. Chargers rookie QB Hebert threw for nearly 300 yards last week and 3 touchdowns! We have finally see the over trend in primetime games slow down recently but Saints games are 4-0 to the over this season and, with this total dropping some from an opener of 52 down to 50 we have extra value here. That has me going to my highest level in terms of the rating on this one. 10* OVER the total in New Orleans |
|||||||
10-12-20 | Astros v. Rays OVER 8 | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #963 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros @ 4:07 ET - Yesterday's 2-1 final is helping to give us some line value here. The teams had plenty of scoring chances yesterday but just couldn't cash in. The teams combined to go just 3 for 16 with runners in scoring position and left 19 men on base. That is why no matter whom the pitchers are today, I am betting the over in this game. The lineups made enough "noise" yesterday that they have some confidence heading into today's game and, this time, they should cash in those opportunities. As for the projected pitching matchup today is is Lance McCullers and Charlie Morton. McCullers went 0-3 with a 7.33 ERA away from home in 2020 regular season action and then got crushed in the ALDS match-up with Oakland as he allowed 8 hits (including 3 homers) in just 4 innings of work. Don't be surprised if the Rays do some damage here. However, Tampa Bay starter Morton had a 4.74 ERA in his 9 starts in the regular season this year and the Astros will do some damage against him here too. That said, with a total of just 8 runs, this one gets my highest rating. 10* OVER the total in Tampa Bay |
|||||||
10-11-20 | Lakers v. Heat +5.5 | Top | 106-93 | Loss | -102 | 10 h 55 m | Show |
ABC Dominator - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NBA Rotation #712 Sunday 10* Top Play Miami Heat (+) vs Los Angeles Lakers @ 7:30 ET - This line is now moving to 5.5 as of early game day morning and that means even more value with Miami. The Heat are resilient, hungry and determined. Those are all attributes you want when backing an underdog and I love getting significant points again with these scrappy guys as they are proving they won't go down without a fight. I would not be surprised to see them force a Game 7 but also certainly don't expect them to lose this game by more than a bucket or two even if they do fall short of the upset. Keep in mind that Miami is now 14-6 SU in the post-season and two of the losses were very tight games (one in OT) decided by an average margin of 4.5 points. Look for another tight game here as the Lakers last 7 games played on "regular rest" of 2 or less days between games are just 4-3 SU. Los Angeles has cooled off from their early post-season dominance and each loss shakes their confidence a little more while we're also seeing the confidence of the Heat grow with wins in 2 of the last 3 games. More of the same here. 10* MIAMI |
|||||||
10-11-20 | Colts +1 v. Browns | Top | 23-32 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 29 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #473 Sunday 10* Top Play Indianapolis Colts (+) @ Cleveland Browns @ 4:25 ET - Long-time followers know I love to fade line moves in the NFL when the situation is right and that is the case here in my opinion. The Colts were as high as a 3 point favorite in this game and now are a 1 point underdog as of early game day morning. While Cleveland is an improved team this is a horrible spot for them. They are off a road dog upset win at Dallas where they blew a huge lead and then had to hang for dear life against the Cowboys. Now they are back home but have a huge divisional game on deck with Pittsburgh. Yes, the Steelers team that is undefeated and in first place in their division. In looking at this match-up, yes the Colts are also off a road win last week but it was an expected road win. Indianapolis was the favorite and the Bears scored very late in that game. In other words, the Colts not only won the game, they dominated as it nearly ended a 19-3 final. Chicago's TD and 2 point conversion came very very late. The key to the value in this match-up is that the Browns caught a lot of eyes with their win at Dallas last week but the Cowboys defense is atrocious this season. Now Cleveland goes from facing the league's worst defense to facing the #1 defense in the league. The Colts have simply dominated on that side of the ball. Indy has allowed an average of 9.7 points per game the last 3 weeks. The Browns have allowed an average of 31.5 points per game this season. With Cleveland's big game on deck against division leading Pittsburgh, this is the ideal spot to fade them and back the Colts as they look to win for the 9th time in the last 10 meetings between these teams. The Browns had covered just 4 of 15 games overall before upsetting the Cowboys last week. Ideal setup here. 10* INDIANAPOLIS |
|||||||
10-10-20 | UTEP v. Louisiana Tech -14 | Top | 17-21 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #352 Saturday 10* Top Play Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (-) vs UTEP Miners @ 7:30 ET - I don't normally lay big points for a top play but this is a rare exception as I expect a thorough beating on the part of the Bulldogs here and a 3-1 Miners team is on the receiving end of it. Yes, UTEP is 3-1 this season but they've played two FCS schools. In their only tough game they were completely annihilated 59-3 by Texas! In their 4 games this season, even with playing a pair of FCS schools too, the Miners are averaging just 18.8 points per game. UTEP simply won't be able to keep with an angry Louisiana Tech team. The Bulldogs were 2-0 prior to last week's beating at the hands of a BYU team that has been annihilating everyone this season. Keep in mind, Louisiana Tech was averaging 48.5 points per game prior to getting hammered by the Cougars last week. This Bulldogs team can put up a ton of points here at home and the Miners simply won't be able to keep up. Last year, Louisiana Tech was up 42-7 before allowing two late TDs after the game was already decided. Look for another dominating win this season and it may end with an even greater margin than last season's 42-21 final. That's because Louisiana Tech is angry after what happened at Brigham Young last week. Also, Texas El Paso does have the attention of the Bulldogs here since the Miners are 3-1 this season. That means they won't be overlooked and that is bad news for UTEP as the home team really pours it on this one and should be fully focused from the opening kickoff too. The spread is -14 on this one but I am very comfortable laying the big points in this mismatch! 10* LOUISIANA TECH |
|||||||
10-09-20 | Heat +7.5 v. Lakers | Top | 111-108 | Win | 100 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
ABC Dominator - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NBA Rotation #709 Friday 10* Top Play Miami Heat (+) vs Los Angeles Lakers @ 9 ET - The Heat don't get blown out often. They have had a very solid post-season and I would not be surprised to see them dig deep and extend this series. The extra time off certainly was welcome for Miami as they have been battling through injuries. That said, having been off since Tuesday's game, this Friday match-up might end up going to the hungrier team. Even if the Heat are unable to extend the series, I expect a very tightly contested game decided by only a bucket or two. Again, Miami will dig deep here. The Heat have played 19 post-season games and only 4 of the 19 have resulted in a loss by more than 6 points. The line on this game, as of early gameday morning, is available as high as a 7.5 and I'll gladly grab the points here given the above. Having Bam Adebayo back, and now playing his 2nd game since coming back, will be a key for the Heat in this one. Again, the extra rest between games could help Adebayo and the Heat get over the hump in this one. Either way I do NOT see the Lakers winning this one by a big margin. 10* MIAMI |
|||||||
10-09-20 | Yankees v. Rays +147 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 147 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #934 Friday 10* Top Play Tampa Bay Rays Money Line (+) vs New York Yankees @ 7:10 ET - I am going contrarian here and going with the undervalued underdog. Tyler Glasnow gets the start and last year's playoff experience really helping him here. He went 0-2 last season in the post-season but he is 2-0 so far this season in the playoffs. I know he is on short rest for this one but, keep in mind, his arm fresher than usual since it was such a short regular season. He piled up the strikeouts in his win over the Yankees in Game 2 of this series and he can do that again here in Game 5. As for Yankees starter Gerrit Cole, he has allowed 6 homers in his last 4 post-season starts (2 this year and his final 2 last year). As dominant as he can be, Cole also capable of serving up "mistake pitches" that get crushed and end up in the seats or in the outfield gaps. I expect the Rays to surprise Cole and the Yankees and the world (per se) as they get the upset win here over the over-valued Yankees and advance to the ALCS. Give me the underdog in this one and, keep in mind, though a neutral field having the home edge of last at bats is certainly an added value here should this game be a close one late. 10* TAMPA BAY |
|||||||
10-08-20 | Braves v. Marlins OVER 8.5 | Top | 7-0 | Loss | -119 | 7 h 16 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #921 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves @ 2:08 ET - I know Sixto Sanchez is off a great start versus the Cubs in the prior post-season round. But he faces a much more confident and potent lineup in this round of the playoffs. Also, the Cubs hadn't seen him this season whereas the Braves will be seeing Sanchez for the 3rd time already this season. Repetition tends to help the hitters and when they saw him for the 2nd time Atlanta got to him for 4 earned runs on 4 walks and 4 hits in just 3 innings! More of the same expected here. The good news for Marlins fans, however, is the fact that Kyle Wright makes this start for the Braves. Not only is this the first time Wright has pitched since September 25th, he struggled badly against Miami this season. Wright allowed 8 earned runs on 8 walks and 9 hits in 7 innings of work! Just like Sanchez, Wright is likely to struggle here. After yesterday's 2-0 pitchers duel, this one is slated to play out much more like the 9-5 slugfest that opened up this series. 10* OVER the total in Miami |
|||||||
10-07-20 | Rays +114 v. Yankees | Top | 8-4 | Win | 114 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #913 Wednesday 10* Top Play Tampa Bay Rays Money Line (+) vs New York Yankees @ 7:10 ET - With last night's 7-5 win, the Rays are right back in this series as it is knotted at 1 game apiece. I look for Tampa Bay to get another win here as they ride the momentum of yesterday's victory and have a pitching edge in this one. Tampa Bay has the fresh arm of Charlie Morton on the mound. He hasn't pitched in 12 days. He has great breaking stuff and can keep hitters off balance and rack up strikeouts. All those variables against a Yankees lineup that is powerful but also known for striking out too much is the perfect combo for TB starter Morton in my opinion. New York's Masahiro Tanaka, on the other hand, is likely to struggle here. He struggled a bit down the stretch run in the regular season as he allowed 9 runs (5 earned) on 14 hits and 4 walks in 9 and 1/3 innings spanning his last two starts away from home. Of course this start will also be away from home as these are neutral site games and this one is being played at Petco Park in San Diego. Also, Tanaka struggled in his first appearance of this post-season as the Indians got to him for 6 earned runs in his start against Cleveland in the Wild Card series last week. I respect the Yankees for sure but they continue to get a little too much respect from the betting markets. Lets not forget that this is a Yankees team that went 11-18 away from home in the regular season while the Rays went 20-11 in road games this season. In Game 3 at Petco Park in San Diego, I will again take the undervalued team in this one and am happy to have them as a dog tonight. 10* TAMPA BAY |
|||||||
10-06-20 | Lakers v. Heat +7.5 | Top | 102-96 | Win | 100 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NBA Rotation #708 Tuesday 10* Top Play Miami Heat (+) vs Los Angles Lakers @ 9 PM ET - This is from my write-up on Sunday's game and, not only did most of these things hold true, I expect it it continue in Game 4 now that Miami has momentum on their side in this series after the outright upset win in Game 3: **Couple of unlikely stats so far in this series as the Lakers are getting better 3-point shooting than expected from unexpected sources and also have dominated the offensive glass. Having a slight edge in either one of those categories is not a surprise but to have a huge edge in both of them is highly unlikely to continue. The Heat, now down 0-2 in this series, are extremely hungry. Miami also could get Bam Adebayo back for this one (expected) as well as Goran Dragic (possible). Either way, whatever Heat players are on the floor are going to give a valiant effort in this must win situation. I am expecting huge games from Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro, Jae Crowder and Duncan Robinson. Look for role players like Kelly Olynyk, Kendrick Nunn, and Andre Iguodala to also come up big if called upon. This is a "rally the troops" game for a well-coached Heat team that shouldn't be catching nearly double digits again in this spot. We have seen what this team is capable of throughout this post-season and I wouldn't count a resilient bunch like this just yet. A lot of line value here, given the situation, with this under-valued hungry big dog.** Again, they got Game 3 and will follow the same recipe in looking to get Game 4 as well which would not surprise me. What would surprise me is that if they do fall short it is by more than a handful of points. I just don't see that happening here. The Heat are in this one all the way and just might pull off another shocker. Grab the points with the still-hungry dog as Jimmy Butler again looks to will his team to victory. They have the right pieces around him to surprise again here! 10* MIAMI |
|||||||
10-06-20 | Yankees v. Rays -115 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #906 Tuesday 10* Top Play Tampa Bay Rays Money Line (-) vs New York Yankees @ 8:10 ET - I am calling this a contrarian play because the Yankees, as always, will continue to get plenty of support from the betting markets. The Rays, however, are in bounce back mode here after yesterday's loss finished in ugly fashion. It was a tight game all the way until the top of the 9th when the Yankees blew it open and the Rays will look to make amends for that here and they have the pitching match-up that will allow them to do just that. Tyler Glasnow had a respectable 3.77 ERA in his 3 starts against the Yankees this season and averaged about 3 strikeouts for every 2 innings pitched against New York! Overall he enters this start on a run that has seen him fan 8 or more batters in 9 of his last 12 starts. Getting a lot of strikeouts of their sluggers is a key to slowing down the Yankees and I expect Glasnow to do just that. He rates a big edge, in my opinion, over Deivi Garcia as he is just 21 years old and his ERA over 6 starts this season was nearly a 5.00 and I expect the young hurler to struggle against the Rays in this one. Tampa Bay was the better overall team in the regular season and I don't see them falling down 2-0 in this series considering a significant pitching edge in Game 2 also. That said, I'll gladly lay the short price with the designated home team (last bat advantage( in this one. 10* TAMPA BAY RAYS |
|||||||
10-05-20 | Falcons +7 v. Packers | Top | 16-30 | Loss | -111 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #279 Monday 10* Top Play Atlanta Falcons (+) @ Green Bay Packers @ 8:50 ET - Winless teams bring a little extra hunger to games at this stage in the season. Yesterday the winless teams whom were not facing a team that was also winless went a perfect 3-0 ATS as the Bengals, Giants, and Eagles all covered. Also, in the other two match-ups this week involving winless teams it was a battle of teams seeking their first wins as the Broncos faced the Jets Thursday and the Vikings faced the Texans Sunday. In both cases the road team (and the dog) won each game outright. You can see where I am going with this. Yes, the Packers are undefeated on the season and the Falcons are winless but I am riding with the road dog in this one. This game is at Lambeau Field so normally about 3 points added for that. That said, Green Bay opened up as low as a 5-point favorite in this one. I love being a contrarian. That line is saying the 3-0 Packers are only two points better than the winless Falcons on a neutral field. Of course the betting markets are in love with the Pack here and the line is now up to a -7 as of game day morning. I'll gladly grab the points here. The Falcons come in angry as they have blown huge leads (inexcusable!) to the Cowboys and Bears this season. Big dogs left for dead across the sports world are capable of rising up when others least expect it. That was the case with the Eagles last night in the NFL and the Heat in the NBA as well. I sense another shocker here as the Falcons first game of the year was against a tough Seahawks team and then they did build HUGE leads against both Dallas and Chicago before losing those games. The point is that the Falcons are a better team than many are thinking right now and I know what kind of effort they will bring on a Monday Night with the nation walking. Guys show up big for games like this when they are highly motivated and certainly the winless Falcons play this game with a chip on their shoulder. 10* ATLANTA |
|||||||
10-05-20 | Yankees v. Rays +138 | Top | 9-3 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 55 m | Show |
TBS Dominator - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #902 Monday 10* Top Play Tampa Bay Rays Money Line (+) vs New York Yankees @ 8:07 ET @ Petco Park in San Diego, CA - Waiting has paid off here as the betting masses love backing teams like the Yankees while teams like the Rays get less respect. Keep in mind, the Yankees went just 11-18 in road games this season. Of course this is essentially a road game for both teams since it is at a neutral site. However, Tampa Bay is the designated home team for Game One of this series. Also, the Rays were the much better team when traveling this season as they went 20-11 on the road. I am well aware of the fact that Gerrit Cole has been pitching very well for the Yankees of late and he has particularly been in the zone when working with battery-mate Kyle Higashioka behnd the plate. However, there is simply not enough respect being given to a very good Rays team that has a solid hurler on the mound in this one too. Blake Snell gets the start for Tampa Bay here and he went 1-0 with a 3.38 ERA in his two starts against New York this season. As for Cole, he went 0-1 with a 4.96 ERA in his two starts against the Rays this season. Also, TB rates the bullpen edge over the Yanks too in my opinion. Just overall the better team and, in what will likely be a tight game, I love the home dog value here with the Rays on the money line. 10* TAMPA BAY |
|||||||
10-04-20 | Lakers v. Heat +9.5 | Top | 104-115 | Win | 100 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
ABC Dominator - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach Rotation #706 Sunday 10* Top Play Miami Heat (+) vs Los Angeles Lakers @ 7:30 ET - Couple of unlikely stats so far in this series as the Lakers are getting better 3-point shooting than expected from unexpected sources and also have dominated the offensive glass. Having a slight edge in either one of those categories is not a surprise but to have a huge edge in both of them is highly unlikely to continue. The Heat, now down 0-2 in this series, are extremely hungry. Miami also could get Bam Adebayo back for this one (expected) as well as Goran Dragic (possible). Either way, whatever Heat players are on the floor are going to give a valiant effort in this must win situation. I am expecting huge games from Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro, Jae Crowder and Duncan Robinson. Look for role players like Kelly Olynyk, Kendrick Nunn, and Andre Iguodala to also come up big if called upon. This is a "rally the troops" game for a well-coached Heat team that shouldn't be catching nearly double digits again in this spot. We have seen what this team is capable of throughout this post-season and I wouldn't count a resilient bunch like this just yet. A lot of line value here, given the situation, with this under-valued hungry big dog. 10* MIAMI |
|||||||
10-04-20 | Colts -3 v. Bears | Top | 19-11 | Win | 100 | 8 h 7 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #251 Sunday 10* Top Play Indianapolis Colts (-) @ Chicago Bears @ 4:25 ET - The Bears are 3-0 this season and yet they are an underdog, even though at home, against the 2-1 Colts. As a result, many are calling this line a "mistake" but long-time followers know how I feel about "mistakes" in terms of lines! The fact is that Indianapolis is deservedly the favorite here. The Bears have come back from huge deficits against the Lions and Falcons for two of their three wins this season and they barely held off the hapless Giants for their other victory this season! Those 3 teams that Chicago has barely (and in two cases, fortunately) beaten were a combined 14-33-1 last season! Now they take on a Colts team that looks like the real deal. Yes I know that Indianapolis also has played a rather weak schedule but the Vikings did go 10-6 last season and Jacksonville is better than their early season record would indicate. The road loss to the Jaguars in the season opener for Indy is their only loss so far on the young campaign. Indianapolis outgained the Jags 445-241 in that game but were done in by turnovers. The way I see it the Colts could easily be 3-0 on the season while the Bears aren't too far off from being an 0-3 team this season. We are only in Week 4 of the season and Chicago is already the first team in NFL history with two wins in the same season in games in which they trailed by 16 or more points in the 4th quarter. That won't happen here against a team that ranks as the #1 defense in the NFL so far this season. The Bears scoring defense ranks decently but their yardage defense ranks middle of the pack (15th) in the NFL and again they have faced teams that went 14-33-1 last season. I know Nick Foles is still a solid QB as he showed last week, but the Colts are well coached and Frank Reich (former Eagles offensive coordinator) knows plenty about Foles. Their top-ranked defense will frustrate Foles and the Bears in this one and I look for QB Philip Rivers and company to pull away as this one goes on. 10* INDIANAPOLIS |
|||||||
10-04-20 | Fulham v. Wolverhampton Wanderers OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 45 m | Show |
Top Total - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach EPL Rotation #200029 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 goals in Wolverhampton vs Fulham @ 9 AM ET - Wolverhampton got thoroughly embarrassed in a 4-0 shutout at West Ham last weekend. Now they are back on their home pitch and they view this as a key fixture as they lost their only home match this season by a count of 3-1. Wolverhampton will absolutely take advantage of facing a lesser foe this week. Fulham was promoted to the English Premier League this season and they've certainly struggled at the higher level. Fulham has already conceded 10 goals in 3 games. With Wolverhampton in need of a dominating win I expect that tally to grow by at least 3 more for Fulham as they continue allowing an average of about 3 goals per game. Fulham did score 3 goals in their only game on enemy pitch this season so the could surprise here. This is particularly true since Wolverhampton has already allowed 7 goals in their 3 games this season. Per the above you can you see why I am expecting at least a 3-1 final here and a 3-2 end result would also not surprise in the least. That said, great value with the rather low total posted on this one. Given the situation, I expect Wolverhampton to be very aggressive and on the attack throughout this fixture. 10* OVER the total in Wolverhampton |
|||||||
10-03-20 | Auburn v. Georgia -7 | Top | 6-27 | Win | 100 | 15 h 17 m | Show |
Game of the Week – Scott “The Bulldog” Rickenbach CFB Rotation #154 Saturday 10* Top Play Georgia Bulldogs (-) vs Auburn Tigers @ 7:30 ET – The Bulldogs just might have the best defense in the nation. I know the offense didn’t look sharp in their win over Arkansas last week but they at least got some confidence with their 32-point outburst in the 2nd half of that game (helped by turnovers). After working out the kinks last week against the Razorbacks, look for the Georgia offense to be a little stronger this week and, again, there is no questioning how good this Dawgs defense is! As for Auburn, though they won their game against Kentucky by a double digit margin last week, they were quite fortunate! The Tigers actually were outgained by the Wildcats by a margin of 60 yards. Auburn was fortunate to have a 3-0 turnover edge and that helped set them up on a short field for some late scoring. The Tigers truly benefited throughout the game as every key call and bounce of the ball seemed to go their way. With Auburn off that deceiving final score, there is excellent line value here on the Bulldogs as I am projecting a win by a double digit margin here. Georgia has won 6 of its last 7 games both SU and ATS plus the home team has covered 10 of the last 13 games between these teams. Having home edge and the much better defense and an offense that built up some momentum with last week’s performance in the 2nd half, the Bulldogs are the play here in a game they should win big as they wear down Auburn as the game goes on. Lay the points. 10* GEORGIA |
|||||||
10-03-20 | Manchester City v. Leeds United OVER 3.5 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 19 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach EPL Rotation #200009 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 3.5 goals in Leeds United vs Manchester City @ 12:30 ET - Great match-up for goals here as this match-up features one manager facing his mentor. Of course, they will try to outdo each other here and be very strategic with an attacking style. We have seen lots of attacking early this season as the Premier League has seen many high-scoring games early on. Manchester City is in full on bounce back mode after losing 5-2 last weekend on their home pitch. They want to make the most of this opportunity to get back on track against a newly promoted Leeds United team. Though Leeds United is off to a good start this season and should find the back of the net once or twice in this game they are unlikely to stop an angry Manchester City team coming off an ugly loss as a host. Leeds United has already scored 8 this season but they have conceded 7 as the average goals scored in their 3 games sits at 5 on the young season. Manchester City has only played 2 games this season but has scored 5 goals while allowing 6. Last season Manchester City was the highest scoring team in the league both at home and on the road. Also, on enemy pitch Manchester City did concede an average of 1.2 goals per game. That is why the expectation here is for Leeds United, with their aggressive style early this season, to get 1 or 2 goals but as you can see from the big favorite status of Manchester City, this game could very likely be decided by a multiple-goal margin. As a result, this one sees plenty of scoring. Look for a 4-2 or at least 3-1 type of match here. 10* OVER 3.5 goals in Leeds United |
|||||||
10-02-20 | Heat +10 v. Lakers | Top | 114-124 | Push | 0 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NBA Rotation #715 Friday 10* Top Play Miami Heat (+) vs Los Angeles Lakers @ 9 ET - Ever heard the expression that it is the wounded dog that bites the hardest? It is very true! The Heat are wounded in more ways than one here as they got embarrassed by their ugly loss in Game 1 plus suffered multiple injury issues. With the situations involving Goran Dragic and Bam Adebayo look for Kelly Olynyk and Kendrick Nunn to step up big time in Game 2. The Heat still have plenty of talent on this team and they are very upset that they played like garbage after jumping out to a solid double digit lead in the first quarter. Keep in mind the line on Game 1 ended up at 4.5 but now the line on Game 2 is up to a 10 as of early Friday morning. I understand the viewpoint of the marketplace but that doesn't mean I agree with it. The Heat didn't get this far without being well-coached and making proper adjustments and they will be ready for Game 2. Do they win this one outright? Probably not BUT it would not totally shock me that is for sure. The fact is I do expect them to keep this game to a single digit margin as they fight all the way through it. There is no quit in this Miami team and they have yet to lose back to back games in this post-season. Watch Heat players simply playing out of their minds in this game! They will be that fired up and ready to respond and will stay aggressive throughout this game! The Lakers 4 games prior to the blowout win in Game 1 featured 1 SU loss and 3 SU wins ALL by 10 or less points. We've got great line value here. I'll take it. 10* MIAMI |
|||||||
10-02-20 | Cardinals +106 v. Padres | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 56 m | Show |
ESPN Dominator - *THIS PLAY IS ACTION. NO MATTER WHO IS THE STARTING PITCHER FOR EITHER TEAM * - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #977 Friday 10* Top Play St Louis Cardinals Money Line (+) @ San Diego Padres @ 7:08 ET - The Cardinals had an inexcusable loss yesterday as they were up 4-0 and 6-2 and yet still found a way to lose. They'll make up for it here. With the Padres pitching staff still without Lamet and Clevinger for this series, they are really running low on arms for this bullpen game Friday. Yes the Padres are just thrilled to be here of course as it looked like St Louis was going to earn the series sweep with a win yesterday before San Diego went "home run crazy" in the game. However, to get to this point San Diego has used a lot of bullpen in the first two games and now Game 3 was already a designated "bullpen game" for the Padres coming into this series. That said, the Cards hold a big edge on the mound in this bounce back spot in Game 3. Cardinals have starting pitcher Jack Flaherty slated to go in this one and though he was not as strong this season as he was the prior season, he is still a strikeout pitcher with great stuff. He is fully capable of dominating the Padres in this game and he has had great success against San Diego (including at Petco Park) in his young career. Coming off a loss in which they allowed double digits in runs, and with a big edge in starting pitching for this one, I like the Cardinals as a small dog here. Payback time and the Cardinals will advance. 10* ST LOUIS |
|||||||
10-01-20 | Broncos +2 v. Jets | Top | 37-28 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
Thursday Thrasher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #101 Thursday 10* Top Play Denver Broncos (+) @ New York Jets @ 8:20 ET - Do you think the odds makers didn't know about the QB situation for the Broncos? Or that they were clueless about everything when they set this line in the -2 or -2.5 range on Denver? In fact, a few days ago this line had the Broncos favored by 3 points and then now they are a 2-point underdog? Long-time followers know how I feel about line moves like this and I'll absolutely grab the value here with the Broncos after a 5-point line swing! The fact is both these teams have injuries on both sides of the ball and it is an ugly match-up as each team is 0-3 to start the season. Of course many will argue that the Jets have the home field edge but, again, the odds makers knew where this game was being played when they made the line! I expect QB Rypien to have a solid start for the Broncos against a bad Jets defense. The fact he got some work in the last game and threw a pick on his final pass (after 8 straight completions) is actually a good thing. If he gone 9 for 9 with a TD pass he might have lost focus here. That interception, which did not cost the Broncos the game by the way, was actually the best thing that could have happened to him. Watch this Denver team come into East Rutherford fully focused on both sides of the ball and get their first win of the season. Keep in mind, the Jets haven't even been close this season. New York has lost all 3 games by a double digit margin and their average margin of defeat is 19 points. The Broncos lost last week was their first ugly one. They lost their first two games by a COMBINED 7 points. Both teams have struggled early this season as their 0-3 records indicate BUT the Broncos have been the more competitive team and we'll see that again in this one. I'll gladly take the points here. 10* DENVER |
|||||||
10-01-20 | Reds v. Braves OVER 7.5 | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -107 | 4 h 21 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #957 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Atlanta Braves vs Cincinnati Reds @ 12:08 ET - I know these teams combined for just 1 run yesterday but watch today's game play out much differently. For one thing, the fact yesterday's game went 13 innings didn't do any favors for each team's bullpen. But the key factor here is that there is reason to believe each of these pitchers could struggle some in their post-season debuts. Luis Castillo starts for the Reds and he gave up 3 homers in 5 innings in his only day game outing this season. Castillo, as good as he has been, is now 8-14 in day games the past 3 seasons! The early start time for this one certainly not doing him any favors. Also, Castillo enters this start off a road outing in which he allowed 4 earned runs in 4 innings. As for the Braves Ian Anderson, he just turned 22 in May and it seems the book is now out on how to hit him! In all seriousness, after great early season success he got hit hard in each of his last two outings to wrap up the season and allowed 3 runs in each start. It is hidden from his ERA a little bit because the 3 in his final outing were unearned. But that does not change the black and white facts which are: Anderson allowed 11 hits plus walked 4 in 10 and 1/3 innings spanning his last 2 starts. The Reds will bounce back at the plate off the shutout loss and I expect the youngster to feel a bit of playoff pressure in this one as the rookie has logged only 32 and 1 / 3 innings in his MLB career, all this season. The bats will wake up today after yesterday's slumber. I understand the low total of 7.5 but have plenty of reason to believe it is too low as you can see per the above. 10* OVER the total in Atlanta |
|||||||
09-30-20 | Heat +5 v. Lakers | Top | 98-116 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
Perfect Matchup - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NBA Rotation #701 Wednesday 10* Top Play Miami Heat (+) vs Los Angeles Lakers @ 9 ET - The Heat are 12-3 SU in the post-season and one of those 3 defeats came by just 3 points in overtime. Miami got past the Bucks and Celtics. The Lakers are a bit fortunate as they missed facing Kawhi Leonard and the Clippers and, instead, got a tired Nuggets team. Denver had gone too far in seeing each of their first two series turn into 3-1 deficits before rallying to win each series in 7 games. That left them out of gas in terms of facing the Lakers and once Anthony Davis hit that game-winning last second shot in Game 2 of the series that was the handwriting on the wall for a tired Nuggets team. Denver managed just 1 win in the series with Los Angeles. The only time the Lakers won Game 1 of the series in this post-season was when they caught the Nuggets in a very tough spot for Denver as they were worn out after rallying against the Clippers to take that series in 7 games. The Lakers now face a much tougher test than a tired Nuggets team. Just like their first two series of this post-season, Los Angeles drops this opening game. As added insurance I am grabbing the points here but I am expecting an outright upset. The Heat present some different defensive looks that could give the Lakers some trouble until they adjust. By the time they do, it could be too late for Game 1 and this Heat team has been shooting lights out from beyond the arc. More of the same here. 10* MIAMI |
|||||||
09-30-20 | Blue Jays v. Rays OVER 7 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 102 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #943 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays @ 4:07 ET - Sometimes strange things happen. Who would have thought the Yankees, who did not slug the ball well away from home all season, would go and score 12 runs at Cleveland on a night when Indians ace Shane Bieber was pitching? Or who would have thought the only series in this Wild Card round that was pitting two teams who saw a lot of each other during the regular season would see both teams struggle at the plate? But that was the case yesterday with the Rays and Jays as neither team hit well and the game sputtered to a 3-1 final. The key takeaway in all this? Stay the course. There will always be exceptions but staying steady with the same beliefs that got you there is what will continue to bring in winners. That is why I am going with the over in Game 2 of this series after a low-scoring Game 1. I know Hyun Jin Ryu had a great regular season but the Rays are familiar with him and ranked 3rd in the AL against lefties this season as they had a .455 slugging percentage when facing southpaws. Tampa Bay will be seeing Ryu for the 3rd time this season and he did have a 5.23 ERA in his day game outings this season plus struggled a bit against the Rays this year as well. TB counters with Tyler Glasnow. He was not nearly as dominant this year as last year plus he had a 4.85 ERA in home games and a 9.00 ERA in day games. Toronto can give him some trouble here and the Blue Jays and Rays could get into a bit of a back and forth game here which has me liking this one to go over the low total. 10* OVER the total in Tampa Bay |
|||||||
09-29-20 | White Sox -113 v. A's | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 54 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #937 Tuesday 10* Top Play Chicago White Sox Money Line (-) @ Oakland A's @ 3 ET - So the A's finished the season with a better record, plus have home field edge here, plus the White Sox finished the season slumping, and yet Oakland is an underdog in this one. Looks easy, right? You know what the reality is when something looks too easy, right? That's right, nothing is that easy! I like the White Sox plenty in this match-up. First off, the A's are throwing a southpaw, Jesus Luzardo, in this one. He was a bit "up and down" in the regular season and finished with a 4.12 ERA in his dozen games (9 starts). The big concern for Luzardo here is that the White Sox hit .285 (#1 among playoff teams) and had a .523 slugging percentage (#1 among all MLB teams) in the regular season against lefties. Chicago loves facing left-handed pitching and they will give Luzardo a lot of trouble in this one. As for White Sox starter Lucas Giolito, look for plenty of success in this one. He is facing an A's team that hit just .229 at home this season and that ranks among the worst marks in the majors. Also, Giolito thrived on the road and in day games each of the past two seasons. 2020 - 2.79 ERA on the road and 3.00 ERA in day games. 2019 - 9-3 with a 2.83 ERA on the road and 7-3 with a 2.16 ERA in day games. There is a reason the road team is the favorite in this one. Lay it! 10* CHICAGO WHITE SOX |
|||||||
09-28-20 | Chiefs v. Ravens -3.5 | Top | 34-20 | Loss | -101 | 24 h 15 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #490 Monday 10* Top Play Baltimore Ravens (-) vs Kansas City Chiefs @ 8:15 ET - Two very strong teams but the Ravens have won 14 regular season games in a row SU and are at home for this game and have revenge from last year's loss at Kansas City and have the much better defense in this match-up. Indeed, even though the Chiefs have not allowed a lot of points this season their defense statistically (based on yardage allowed) comes into this week ranked poorly. The Ravens defense comes into this week ranked as one of the best in the NFL and that was the case last season as well. By the way, Chiefs ranked in middle of pack defensively last year. KC wins games with their offense and, also, their defense is known to not travel as well. The Chiefs D is known for being tougher when at home. That said, I really like the Ravens in this key early season match-up and possible AFC Championship preview. The better D, the home field, the revenge factor, and Baltimore is on an 11-1 ATS run. The Ravens have quite a solid offense as well even though the Chiefs get more of the hype. That said, we'll fade the hype and lay the small number to have a highly motivated small home favorite in this one. This is a statement game for the home team against the defending Super Bowl champs. 10* BALTIMORE |
|||||||
09-28-20 | Lightning -160 v. Stars | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 25 h 53 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NHL Rotation #1 Monday 10* Top Play Tampa Bay Lightning Money Line (-) vs Dallas Stars @ 8:05 ET - This is RARE for me but I like this situation so much I am willing to go with a Top Play 10* rating even though the money line is in the -160 range for this one. The fact is that the Stars are VERY lucky there even is a Game 6 in this series. Tampa Bay is the superior team, the healthier team, and they have the better goaltender. Don't get me wrong, I do respect the Stars and goalie Anton Khudobin but the fact remains that the Lightning have skated circles around Dallas for much of the last 4 games. Now, after giving up a late goal in Game 5 that allowed the Stars to tie it and then losing in the 2nd OT (after being the MUCH better team in the 1st OT), the Lighting respond in a big way here! The Bolts are a perfect 6-0 in this post-season when off a loss. Yes they will be without Stamkos again but they have been without him for much of this post-season. Just his presence on the ice (he also scored a goal) in the Game 4 win was big for TB but they played just fine in Game 5 without him. Their fault was in letting up a little bit. This time they won't let up and they will push harder and I am look for them to have a multiple goal lead heading into the final minute of this one. Do they then push it to a 3-goal lead with an empty-netter or do the Stars make it interesting by scoring one late goal with their netminder pulled? That question I can not answer but that is also why I am more comfortable playing the money line here. I don't want to get burned on the puck line late in the game. I do look for a convincing win here as the Lightning are a very dangerous team when highly motivated and they also feel cheated on the OT goal because it came on a power play goal on a penalty call that was not a penalty as the review showed. That said, it is payback time here from a very determined Lighting team. Look for goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy to have another big game for the Bolts here. He has been huge off a loss. 10* TAMPA BAY |
|||||||
09-28-20 | Arsenal v. Liverpool OVER 3 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 22 h 41 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach EPL Rotation #200081 Monday 10* Top Play OVER 3 goals in Liverpool vs Arsenal @ 3 ET - When these teams meet you can expect plenty of goals no matter the pitch they are playing on. The last 11 meetings between these teams have averaged 5 goals per game. This game is at Liverpool and they scored an average of nearly 3 goals per game at home last season. Arsenal averaged scoring only about 1.5 goals per game last season but, again, they are known for being a thorn in the side of Liverpool. The last time these teams met at Anfield they combined for 10 goals. Liverpool's first home fixture this season totaled 7 goals and Arsenal scored 3 goals in their only road fixture this season and they have not been held below 2 goals in either game. The same holds true for Liverpool as they have not been held below 2 goals in either of their two games. Liverpool is so strong at home but Arsenal can get pressure on the attack and will do that just like Leeds United did in the season opener at Anfield. As a result, this one sees plenty of scoring. Look for a 4-3 or at least 3-2 type of match here. 10* OVER 3 goals in Liverpool |
|||||||
09-27-20 | Celtics v. Heat +3.5 | Top | 113-125 | Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NBA Rotation #718 Sunday 10* Top Play Miami Heat (+) vs Boston Celtics @ 7:30 ET - The Heat were outrebounded by a double digit margin in the Game 5 loss. Miami also made just 19% of their 3-pointers in Friday's loss. The Heat lost the game by 13 points but were outscored by 15 points (5 threes) from beyond the arc as the Celtics were the better shooting team Friday. If you think any of the above stats are going to be repeated on Sunday you have another thing coming. The fact is that Miami is the better team in this series and now, after a loss and wanting to avoid a Game 7 where anything can happen, the Heat are the hungrier team. Boston was a little hungrier in Game 5. Now the shoe is on the other foot. This one is all Heat. I am expecting an outright win as I just don't see Jimmy Butler and Company being denied in this one but I will grab the insurance of having the points - as high as 3.5 as of game day morning - as added insurance in this one. 10* MIAMI |
|||||||
09-27-20 | Bucs v. Broncos +6.5 | Top | 28-10 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 0 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #484 Sunday 10* Top Play Denver Broncos (+) vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 4:25 ET - This line has shot up from a 3.5 to as high as a 6.5 and, of course, that is mostly based on Broncos QB Lock being out for this one. However, Driskell actually played quite well in relief of Lock and that was against a tough Steelers defense. Now he takes on a Bucs team that was one of the worst teams in the league last year against the pass. Also, I am not sold just yet on Tampa Bay. They have all this hype now because of Tom Brady at QB but last time I checked this is still a team that didn't have a winning record last season. Now they are on the road against a Broncos team that finished up last season on a red hot streak in home games. I know they are 0-2 this season but Denver played a pair of tough teams and lost the games by a combined total of just 7 points. Look for the Broncos to be in this game all the way. Denver has a respectable defense and, even without a stadium full of fans the Broncos have an extra home field edge do the elevation there. That is something visitors are not as use to. That is part of the reason the Broncos have failed to cover only TWICE the last DOZEN times they have been a home dog. The Buccaneers were helped by 4 Carolina turnovers last week and they lost their opening game (and only road game) to the Saints thus far. I feel this TB team is way over-rated and an outright upset here would not surprise me which is why I am elevating this play (at plus the points) to my highest level. 10* DENVER |
|||||||
09-27-20 | Orioles v. Blue Jays OVER 10 | Top | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 5 h 13 m | Show |
Divisional Dominator - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #911 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles @ 3:07 ET - Sahlen Field in Buffalo, NY is a very hitter friendly park. It will be a mild afternoon in upstate New York with the winds out of the southwest. All signs point to the bats ruling the day here. The Orioles want to get one more look at Keegan Akin and, honestly, the Blue Jays probably do as well! Toronto gets a second shot at him in their own park and Akin has allowed 8 runs (6 earned) on 11 hits in 4 and 2/3 innings spanning his last two road starts. The southpaw will get rocked by a Blue Jays team that is riding waves of positive emotion as they prepare for their first post-season appearance since 2016. As a result of the playoffs being on deck, Blue Jays starter Tanner Roark will work deep into this game even if he is getting roughed up as Toronto wants to preserve as many arms as possible for the start of the playoffs. That said, I like my chances of plenty of runs here as the struggling Roark should get rocked. He has a 7.01 ERA in his 10 starts this season and opponents are hitting .311 against him. More of the same here. 10* OVER the total in Toronto |
|||||||
09-27-20 | Leicester v. Manchester City -1.5 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 8 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach EPL Rotation #200106 Sunday 10* Top Play Manchester City -1.5 goals -110 vs Leicester @ 11:30 AM ET - Manchester City has some injury concerns heading into this game but so too does Leicester. On the money line Manchester City is a huge favorite but we can lay the -1.5 goals to have much better value here and I do expect them to win this one in blowout. Insuring the proper focus is the fact that Leicester brings a perfect 2-0 mark into this fixture. However, Leicester's first two matches were against a pair of clubs that just got promoted to the Premier League this season. Now they go all the way to the "top of the class" per se and face a Manchester City team that is projected by most to win the league this season. Not only that, this is on their home pitch. Manchester City has played only 1 match so far this season and they won 3-1 at Wolverhampton against a respectable team. That was an impressive win. Now in their home opener I look for a win by at least that margin again. Keep in mind Leicester won just 7 of their 19 away fixtures last season. Conversely, Manchester City (even though they had a bit of a disappointing overall campaign compared to expectations) dominated on their home pitch. Not only did Manchester City have a record of 15-2-2, they had a positive goal differential of +44. The fact is a win by a 3 goal margin here would indeed not surprise me in the least and I am definitely expecting a victory by 2 or more goals. Lay it! 10* MANCHESTER CITY -1.5 goals -110 |
|||||||
09-26-20 | Nuggets +5 v. Lakers | Top | 107-117 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
TNT Annihilation - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NBA Rotation #711 Saturday 10* Top Play Denver Nuggets (+) vs Los Angeles Lakers @ 9 ET - Though the Lakers Anthony Davis is listed as questionable I am sure he is going to play here. Still I like the Nuggets in this one. Even though LA had a dozen more free throw attempts in Game 4, the Lakers still only won the game by a half dozen points. That says something right here. What we also know about this Denver team is there is no quit in them. They were down 3-1 in each of the prior two series and rallied to win both. I am not saying that happens here but I am expecting them to go toe to toe with the Lakers in this one all the way. If the Nuggets do fall short look for it to be on a buzzer beater type scenario like how Davis beat them on the late 3 in Game 2. The fact is the Nuggets have been hanging tough with the Lakers in each of the past 3 games and I see no reason that won't continue here. That being the case, give me the points! 10* DENVER |
|||||||
09-26-20 | NC State v. Virginia Tech -6.5 | Top | 24-45 | Win | 100 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #454 Saturday 10* Top Play Virginia Tech Hokies (-) vs NC State Wolfpack @ 8 ET - This line was as high as a 10.5 earlier this week and now fell to as low as a -6. The fact it is below the key number of 7 as of early game day morning is leading to excellent line value in this match-up. I know NC State has an advantage in terms of having a game under their belt but they just allowed 42 points to Wake Forest. The Wolfpack hung on for the 3-point win but certainly were not overly impressive on the defensive side of the ball as the Demon Deacons piled up 32 first downs in that game. Now they take on a Virginia Tech team that returns nearly the entire defense from last season. The Hokies are undervalued here because some expect them to struggle in their first game without defensive coordinator Bud Foster. I definitely do not see it that way and I also like the fact that a lot of players got valuable experience last season by being "thrown into the fire". Enduring those growing pains last season has the Hokies positioned well for success this season. Justin Fuente is a solid coach and this is the best-looking roster he has had since the 2016 season and Virginia Tech won the ACC Coastal Division that season. History is certainly on the side of the Hokies as they have won 4 straight meetings with NC State and each of the last 3 were double digit wins. Virginia Tech can't wait to get back on the field as they were 8-3 last season before losing their season finale to Virginia and then the Hokies also lost their bowl game. They have waited a long time to again taste victory and they'll be ready here. As for the Wolfpack, they had actually lost 6 straight games to close out last season and barely hung on for 3-point win last week. NC State won't be so fortunate this week as they drop to 1-7 SU their last 8 games. Hokies roll to double digit win. 10* VIRGINIA TECH |
|||||||
09-26-20 | Tigers v. Royals OVER 9.5 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #961 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers @ 7:05 ET - The wind will be blowing out toward left-center field at a good clip on Saturday evening at Kauffman Stadium. This is a match-up featuring two teams that are staying home for the playoffs so the hitters certainly will be relaxed at the plate. That said, I like this pitching match-up to result in an easy over. The Tigers Matthew Boyd is facing the Royals for the 3rd time this season but the first time at Kansas City. Though his most recent start against KC was solid, that was sandwiched around 2 poor outings. That comes as no surprise as it has been a very rough season for Boyd and I expect the Royals to pound him in their 3rd look at him this season plus now facing him at home. As for the Kansas City starter, it is rookie Carlos Hernandez. He has not pitched more than 3 and 2/3 innings in any of his outings. His most recent one lasted that long and he only allowed 1 earned run but 4 hits and 3 walks so he was fortunate to say the least. Look for him to get crushed by the Tigers here but note that the Detroit team ERA is among the worst in the majors this season so this one turns into a high-scoring slugfest with the ball carrying very well at Kauffman Stadium tonight. 10* OVER the total in Kansas City |
|||||||
09-26-20 | Chelsea v. West Bromwich Albion OVER 3 | Top | 3-3 | Win | 107 | 19 h 33 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach English Premier League Rotation #200113 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 3 goals +110 in West Bromich Albion vs Chelsea @ 12:30 ET - West Bromich just got promoted to the EPL this season and certainly it has not gone well thus far. No team has conceded more goals than West Bromich Albion so far in the new campaign. Now West Bromich hosts a Chelsea team that is hungry to respond in Premier League season action after last weekend's 2-0 loss on their home pitch versus Liverpool. In other words, the set up truly couldn't be any worse for West Bromich and that is why I am grabbing the over at plus money in this one. I expect an angry Chelsea team to score plenty in this one but note that their newly signed goalie Edouard Mendy will not be available for this one. That means goalkeeping duties fall to a struggling Kepa Arrizabalaga or 38-year old back-up Willy Caballero. Either way I like my chances for West Bromich (scored 2 goals last week) to at least get 1 here. Keep in mind Chelsea allowed an average of 2 goals per game in road fixtures last season. The key here is that Chelsea won't take their foot off the gas even if they get up big. They want to erase the bitter taste of last weekend's shutout loss versus Liverpool where they were red carded and ended up down a man for much of the game. As you can, this one sets up well for plenty of scoring and I'll go over the 3 goals for the plus money return as well. 10* OVER the total in West Bromich |
|||||||
09-25-20 | Heat +3.5 v. Celtics | Top | 108-121 | Loss | -106 | 27 h 27 m | Show |
Scott “The Bulldog” Rickenbach NBA Rotation #715 Friday 10* Top Play Miami Heat (+) vs Boston Celtics @ 8:30 ET – This line opened up at a -2 on Boston and is already up to a 3.5 as of Thursday afternoon. I fully understand the line move since the Celtics are in a “win or go home” situation but the odds makers set this number very low for a reason. In typical contrarian fashion I am against the move here. I will gladly grab the extra points being offered but it is certainly not without reasoning! The fact is that the Heat seem to have Boston’s number. No matter the situation, no matter the score, Miami just keeps battling and finding a way and they have frustrated this Celtics team and shattered its confidence. Look at the box score from Wednesday’s Game 4 and you will see that Boston actually shot better from 3-point land than the Heat did plus the Celtics made 4 more 3-pointers than did Miami and yet they still lost the game. It speaks volumes that Boston outscored the Heat by 12 points from beyond the arc and yet still lost the game by 3 points. Whether it is Herro or Butler stepping up, the Heat just keep coming at the Celtics and keeping them on their heels and that makes for a very dangerous underdog. I’ll take the points here. 10* MIAMI |
|||||||
09-25-20 | Lightning v. Stars +136 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 12 m | Show |
Scott “The Bulldog” Rickenbach NHL Rotation #28 Friday 10* Top Play Dallas Stars Money Line (+) vs Tampa Bay Lightning @ 8 ET – I certainly have all the respect in the world for this Tampa Bay team. However, I see Dallas stepping up big time in this key spot in this series. The Stars just got thrashed by the Lightning in Game 3 but they showed a lot of resilience in Game 2 after getting into a 3-0 hole. Then in Game 3 they outshot Dallas by a big margin in period one but ultimately made too many mistakes and took bad penalties. That allowed Tampa Bay to quickly garner momentum and then the Lightning came out and took it to the Stars in period two before they knew what hit them! Give the Lightning credit for sure but now look for Dallas to come out with a strong effort in this game just like they did in Game 1 of this series. The other two times the Stars lost back to back games in this post-season they have responded with a win each time. In fact, before getting hammered in Game 3 of this series after a Game 2 loss, the Stars had been 6-1 the last 7 times they entered a post-season game off a loss. In other words, don’t be surprised when they respond with a huge effort here. It won’t be easy, because Tampa Bay is a very strong team and playing very well, but I see the underdog getting it done in this one after being embarrassed in Game 3 Wednesday. 10* DALLAS |
|||||||
09-25-20 | Middle Tennessee State +7 v. UTSA | Top | 35-37 | Win | 100 | 27 h 9 m | Show |
Scott “The Bulldog” Rickenbach CFB Rotation #455 Friday 10* Top Play Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (+) @ UTSA Roadrunners @ 8 ET – Why would the odds makers open up UTSA as a favorite of slightly less than a TD against a Middle Tennessee State team that has been blasted by a combined score of 89 to 14 in their first two games? Precisely! That -6.5 on the Roadrunners looked quite enticing and sure enough the early action has been on UTSA and has driven the line up to the key number of 7 which makes this an easy choice for me. I am happy to grab the +7 with a hungry underdog that takes a step down in level of competition here against a team that is a bit over-valued right now. First off the Roadrunners are 2-0 but faced an FCS team, Stephen F Austin, last week and a Texas State team that is annually a bad team and coming off a 3-9 season last year. The Roadrunners are on an 8-16 ATS run as a home favorite. Also, these teams have met twice in recent years and the road team won each game. Also, UTSA was originally scheduled to face Memphis but then the Tigers covid-19 situation changed all that so now bring in MTSU. This is a match-up the Runners may think they want but I have a strong feeling this will be upset city. The Blue Raiders are not a great team but they are certainly much better than the performances they have shown against Army and Troy. The key is that MTSU, in my opinion, is the best team that UTSA will have faced so far this season while the Roadrunners are the weakest team the Blue Raiders have faced this season. Don’t let the records fool you here. Great situation for an angry underdog playing with a chip on its shoulder in this one. 10* MIDDLE TENNESSEE |
|||||||
09-24-20 | Lakers v. Nuggets +6.5 | Top | 114-108 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NBA Rotation #710 Thursday 10* Top Play Denver Nuggets (+) vs Los Angeles Lakers @ 9 ET - The Nuggets were in a bit of a tough spot in Game 1 as they were off a grueling 7 game series where they rallied from a 3-1 deficit against the Clippers. Likewise, in that series they had lost Game 1 to the Clippers after rallying from a 3-1 deficit to knock the Jazz out of the post-season. The point is that maybe the Lakers weren't really that good in Game 1 of this series but rather that Denver was simply out of gas. The Nuggets have now been the better team in each of the last two games and only lost Game 2 because of a miraculous last second shot by Anthony Davis. In other words, there is no way I would lay big points here with a Lakers team that has been the lesser team so far in this series and that has given all the momentum to the Nuggets in this series. Denver believes. Let me repeat that...Denver believes! They have confidence because of what they've been able to accomplish when everyone has counted them out throughout this post-season. As a result, even if they did go down 3-1 in this series they still would not be shaken in their confidence. I actually don't expect that though. I expect the Nuggets to continue to outplay the Lakers and to get the upset win here. I will grab the value of the points however because if the Nuggets do fall short I expect it to be by only a bucket or two. They are 4-2 SU their last 6 games and the only big loss was Game 1 of this series and we all understand that was not the best situation, to say the least, against a rested Lakers team. 10* DENVER |
|||||||
09-24-20 | Dolphins +3 v. Jaguars | Top | 31-13 | Win | 100 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #301 Thursday 10* Top Play Miami Dolphins (+) @ Jacksonville Jaguars @ 8:20 ET - The first lines on this one were as low as a "pick'em". Keep in mind this is a match-up of teams featuring an 0-2 Dolphins team and a 1-1 Jaguars team that did win their only home game. In other words, it is "too easy" right? Just take the home team to win and, of course, that is what everyone is doing as the line has been driven up to a -3 on Jacksonville as of early gameday morning. In typical contrarian fashion I am on the other side of the line move. Dolphins hungry for that first win of that season and wrapped up last season on a 3-2 ATS run their last 5 road games. Their first road game this season was at New England and they failed to cover. However, though the Jaguars might be improving some they are not the Patriots! Also, the Jags are now 3-7 SU their last 10 games overall. I'll grab the points here. 10* MIAMI |
|||||||
09-24-20 | UAB v. South Alabama OVER 47 | Top | 42-10 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #417 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in South Alabama Jaguars vs UAB Blazers @ 7:30 PM ET - Neither one of these teams was known for their offense last season and I am aware of the Blazers injury situation at QB. However, this total has dropped from a 51 to a 47 and I like the value with the over here. The Jaguars came into this season knowing they must score more points after disappointing offensive production last season. They have already done just that as they were a double digit underdog in each of their first two games and yet they have averaged 28 points per game thus far on the season. Now they are at home and should score just fine but will struggle to stop a very experienced UAB team. Keep in mind, South Alabama was not a very good team on defense last season and the Blazers have the talent on offense to take advantage. UAB struggled, of course, against a talented ACC defense (Miami) two weeks ago. However, in their season opener the Blazers scored 45 points. Even with the back-up quarterback, they'll again move the ball just fine in this one too. The result? Plenty of points! 10* OVER the total in South Alabama |
|||||||
09-24-20 | Orioles v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 | Top | 13-1 | Win | 105 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
Divisional Dominator - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #963 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles @ 7:30 ET - No playoff pressure here for these teams and that means relaxed hitters at the plate on what will be a mild evening with a southerly breeze at Fenway Park. That means the ball will carry very well. Boston's Martin Perez will be facing the Orioles for the 3rd time this season and, though he was successful against them at Baltimore, he struggled when he faced them in Boston. In fact, Perez is 0-3 with a 4.28 ERA at home this season. The Orioles got to him for 5 runs (4 earned) in 5 innings when they faced him earlier this season at Fenway Park and they can do it again here. They'll need all the runs they can get because the Red Sox beat them 9-1 yesterday and should have another big game at the plate as they face the Orioles Alex Cobb. The Baltimore right-hander is 0-5 with a 5.18 ERA in his night starts this season and 1-2 with a 5.79 ERA in his road starts this season. The Red Sox are seeing him for the 3rd time this season and are on a 3-game winning streak in which they have scored an average of 9 runs per game. More of the same expected here. 10* OVER the total in Boston |
|||||||
09-23-20 | Celtics -3 v. Heat | Top | 109-112 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NBA Rotation #713 Wednesday 10* Top Play Boston Celtics (-) vs Miami Heat @ 8:30 ET - The Celtics got back into the series with a win in Game 3. Keep in mind they were up 5 late in the 4th quarter of the Game 2 loss and they lost Game 1 in overtime. In other words, and considering Boston had big leads in each of the games too, the Celtics could easily be up 3-0 in this series. Now that's not to say Miami doesn't deserve to be here because they most certainly do and they have earned their 2-1 series edge. However, my key takeaway from all this is two-fold. One is that the Celtics have confidence from the ability to establish double digit leads in games. Two is that Boston has swung momentum after finally hanging on for a win in Game 3. Another added factor that has me backing the Celtics here is the extra time off. Keep in mind that gave Hayward extra rest as he recovers from injury and having him back and as healthy as he has been in a long time is a big plus for Boston. After losing Game 3 on Saturday you know Miami couldn't wait to get back on the floor. Instead they've had to wait around for extra days due to the scheduling quirk. This favors a Celtics team and head coach Brad Stevens as he was able to make even more adjustments and is generally regarded (and rightfully so) as the best coach in the NBA. I wish the number was a little lower but even at the -3 range the Celtics are the play here for sure as they should take this one by at least half a dozen points. 10* BOSTON |
|||||||
09-23-20 | Phillies v. Nationals OVER 9.5 | Top | 12-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show |
Divisional Dominator - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #903 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies @ 6:05 ET - I know the Phillies Zach Eflin is off a strong start but he hasn't had back to back strong starts all season. In fact that was preceded by a stretch in which he allowed at least 3 earned runs in 6 of 7 outings. That included his only start of the season against the Nationals and he gave up 4 earned runs in that outing. Washington has a solid lineup and they are relishing the role of spoiler against the division rival Phillies. They swept yesterday's double-header on a walk-off 2-run homer in the bottom of the 8th of Game 2 after beating Aaron Nola 5-1 in Game 1. The only good news for Phillies fans is that Philadelphia should score plenty of runs in this one. They got going at the plate with 7 runs in Game 2 yesterday and now face Erick Fedde. He is 0-2 with an 8.18 ERA in his two starts against the Phillies this season. Like Eflin, Fedde is off a strong start. Like Eflin, Fedde had struggled prior to that start as he had entered the outing against the Marlins with a 7.32 ERA in his 4 preceding starts. This one will be all about the lineups as they each have a huge day at the plate on a mild evening in DC. 10* OVER the total in Washington |
|||||||
09-22-20 | Lakers v. Nuggets +6.5 | Top | 106-114 | Win | 100 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
Game of the Year - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NBA Rotation #708 Tuesday 10* Top Play Denver Nuggets (+) vs Los Angeles Lakers @ 9 ET - Murray and Jokic combined to hit just 3 of 13 from beyond the arc in Game 2 and yet the Nuggets still should have won the game outright. Denver was outrebounded by a double digit margin Sunday night by the Lakers and yet still should have won the game outright. Only an incredible clutch shot by Anthony Davis bailed out Los Angeles in that one and I am expecting another strong game from a desperate Nuggets team here. Look for Denver to be stronger on the boards here and also hit better from long-range. Additionally, one has to like the fact that the Nuggets had 33 free throw attempts compared to just 19 for the Lakers. I liked the way Denver was aggressive and attacking and resilient as the game went on. They just never gave up and it has been their MO throughout the playoffs and they are showing they are certainly not going to stop now in the Western Conference Finals either...not on your life! There is simply no quit in this resilient Nuggets team and I am expecting their best game of the series tonight. Denver, including regular season and post-season, is 7-3 SU when they enter a game on a SU losing streak of 2 or more games. The 3 losses saw 2 of the defeats come by 5 or less points. The Lakers are favored by 6.5 in this game. I feel the Nuggets have a great shot at the outright upset here and, as you can see from the above, +6.5 in this situation would have netted a 9-1 ATS record in the Nuggets 10 such prior occurrences. Like I said, you are going to see the best of this hungry underdog tonight! 10* DENVER |
|||||||
09-22-20 | Yankees v. Blue Jays OVER 9.5 | Top | 12-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 50 m | Show |
Divisional Dominator - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #955 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees @ 6:37 ET - Yes I know Gerrit Cole is on the mound and has been great for the Yankees in his last 3 starts. However, the Yankees could get double digits in runs all by themselves in this game. Toronto beat New York 11-5 yesterday so it is payback time today but I am certainly not laying the huge money line price on the Yankees and even the run line price is lofty too. Instead I'll take the over and lay hardly any juice in this one as New York should pile up the runs here. The Yankees are 10-2 in their last dozen games and scored an average of 8.5 runs per game in those ten victories. 6 of the Yanks last 7 games have totaled 11 or more runs and I am expecting a similar result today. Roark has a 6.41 ERA this season. If he exits early we might see the originally planned starter for today, Chase Anderson, and he has a 7.45 ERA this season. Overall the Blue Jays pitching staff is not impressive and the Yankees sticks are in bounce back mode after consecutive losses have followed a 10-game winning streak in which, for the most part, the Bronx Bombers were knocking the cover off the ball. The Blue Jays are hitting .274 at home this season and that ranks them among the best in the majors. They should scratch some off Cole whom also might get an early exit if the Yankees get up big as they preserve his arm for the post-season. As a result, all signs pointing to a slugfest in this one. 10* OVER the total in Toronto |
|||||||
09-21-20 | Saints -5.5 v. Raiders | Top | 24-34 | Loss | -104 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #289 Monday 10* Top Play New Orleans Saints (-) @ Las Vegas Raiders @ 8:15 ET - Interesting that the Raiders barely beat the Panthers last week and the Saints were quite dominant against Tom Brady and the Buccaneers and then when you look at yesterday's results. Tampa Bay really "took it" to Carolina yesterday. You can see where I am going with this. I just feel that the Saints are the much better team than the Raiders and that this is especially true at this early stage of the season. New Orleans was better defensively last week and last season in comparison with the Raiders. I know this is the first game in the new stadium here in Las Vegas where I live but it is not the same atmosphere that it would have been had fans been allowed to attend. That said, it is not a huge home field edge really and with the Saints having opened up at nearly a full 7 point favorite and now being available at -5.5 I won't hesitate to step in. The Raiders, though off a win in Week 1, wrapped up last season on a 1-6 run. Also, 6 of their 9 losses last seen came by a margin of 18 or more points! The Saints are off a 13-3 season but very hungry after getting bounced in their first game of the post-season last year. In other words, this is a team on a mission and I don't see them losing a game like this. Not at this early stage of the season at least and based on the Raiders penchant for blowout losses I am comfortable laying the -5.5 here. 10* NEW ORLEANS |
|||||||
09-21-20 | Cubs v. Pirates OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -113 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
Divisional Dominator - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #911 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs @ 7:05 ET - Jon Lester is coming of a start that featured a good linescore versus the Indians but he was not impressive. He was fortunate in that outing. I like to fade pitchers off a start like that and especially when they are NOT overpowering pitchers. That is is certainly the case with Lester and now he is on the road and I trust the Pirates sticks more at home than on the road. The issue for the Pirates here will be their own starter as JT Brubaker gets the start and has struggled badly at home this season. Brubaker has made 5 starts in Pittsburgh and he has compiled a 7.08 ERA as teams have hit nearly .300 against him at PNC Park. With the Cubs off a shutout loss at home last night at the hands of the Twins, I am expecting a huge response from Chicago at the plate in this one. They'll need it because I look for Lester to get hit hard. Even off a fortunate outing in his last start, Lester has a 6.82 ERA in the 7 starts he has made since mid-August. More of the same here. The Cubs .439 slugging percentage in road games ranks them 8th in the majors. Prior to a 2-1 home loss yesterday, the Pirates had scored 4 or more runs in 10 of their past 15 home games. They bounce right back against Lester in this one. 10* OVER the total in Pittsburgh |
|||||||
09-21-20 | Manchester City v. Wolverhampton Wanderers OVER 2.75 | Top | 3-1 | Win | 102 | 7 h 42 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach EPL Rotation #200041 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Wolverhampton vs Manchester City @ 3:15 ET - I am aware of Manchester City having a few injuries. But this is a team that was one of the highest scoring teams in the league last season and that also lost both match-ups with Wolverhampton. When you are a top team but lost both to a good (but not great) team you absolutely can not wait for the rematch. That said, Manchester City will be ready to go here and they scored an average of 2.7 goals per game last season but did allow an average of 1.2 goals per game when on the road. This one is on the pitch at Wolverhampton and they jumped out to a very early 2-0 lead in their season opener last week but then the game got stuck on that number. That kept it from going over the total but they face a much tougher opponent this week. This is a match-up where each teams attacking units match up well against their opponents defense and I expect plenty of great goal-scoring opportunities as a result. Of course I am not going to lay -200 odds with Manchester City but I do expect them to win this game and score at least 2 goals but not produce a clean sheet either. While a 2-1 final is most likely, a 2-2 draw, or a 3-1 or even a 3-2 game would not surprise me in the least given the circumstances of this one. Manchester City has had to wait extra time to get their season underway and this double-revenge match-up will insure a great effort that leads to an exciting game with a lot of scoring chances in my opinion. The injury situation helping to keep this total at 2.5 goals and we'll grab that extra value for a big play. 10* OVER the total in Wolverhampton |
|||||||
09-20-20 | Nuggets +7.5 v. Lakers | Top | 103-105 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NBA Rotation #705 Sunday 10* Top Play Denver Nuggets (+) vs Los Angeles Lakers @ 7:30 ET - The Lakers shot 53% from the field, 42.3% from beyond the arc, had 37 free throw attempts...and still only won Game 1 by a dozen points. If I am Los Angeles that is cause for concern. Don't be surprised when the Nuggets get an upset win here in Game 2 but if they do fall short it will be by much less than a dozen points because I don't expect any of those ridiculous stats to be repeated for the Lakers in Game 2. Give me the generous points here in this one as the Nuggets are 3-1 SU the last 4 times they have been off a SU loss and they respond big in this one. Everyone watched the Lakers blast Denver in Game 1 but this line has not moved from the Friday number for a reason. The sharps are on the Nuggets in this one while the public will continue its love affair with the Lakers here. I expect this to cash easily as we grab an angry, hungry, and determined underdog in this one. 10* DENVER |
|||||||
09-20-20 | Washington Football Team v. Cardinals OVER 46.5 | Top | 15-30 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 9 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #281 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Arizona Cardinals vs Washington @ 4:05 ET - These were two of the worst defensive units in the NFL last season. These two teams are both off upset wins in Week 1. Historically I have done well taking overs when a team is off an upset win. This is particularly true when that upset win was in a divisional game. That is the case for both teams here. What happens here is that, even if it is on a subconscious level, teams tend to lose a little bit of their defensive intensity when off an upset win of a division rival. Keep in mind this week now features a non-divisional match-up. At the same time, coming off a win, the offensive units feel like they can "get it done" and "whatever it takes" to win. They have that confidence of having won the week before and the Cardinals certainly have plenty of playmakers on offense and an offensive-minded head coach. However, this is a team whose defense has been sorely lacking and now they face a Washington offense that has some confidence after rallying from a 17-0 deficit to win 27-17 last week versus the Eagles. The result will be plenty of points in this one and I also like the fact that no many are paying attention to this total. This O/U has stayed in the same spot since it opened and I like games that off the radar a bit as we tend to get even more value in spots like that. Lets take advantage again here using a system that has worked very well for me through the years in the NFL. 10* OVER the total in Arizona |
|||||||
09-20-20 | Braves v. Mets OVER 9.5 | Top | 7-0 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 8 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #959 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves @ 1:10 ET - These are two very potent lineups and two starting pitchers likely to struggle and two bullpens that have each had their share of ups and downs to say the least. It will be a cool afternoon with the wind blowing in from right field but all the above factors trap that one in my opinion. I also like the fact that this total opened up at a 10 and has moved down to a 9.5 as we now get some line value. The odds makers set the total at double digits for a reason. Braves Wright is 1-4 with a 7.20 ERA this season. Mets Porcello is 1-5 with a 6.06 ERA this season. Enough said! 10* OVER the total in New York Mets |
|||||||
09-19-20 | Celtics -2.5 v. Heat | Top | 117-106 | Win | 100 | 13 h 5 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NBA Rotation #703 Saturday 10* Top Play Boston Celtics (-) vs Miami Heat @ 8:30 ET - The Celtics have blown huge leads (each were double digit margins) to lose each of the first two games in this series. Certainly credit is owed to Jimmy Butler and the Heat but the Celtics have the best coach, Brad Stevens, in the NBA. Also, Boston's players are fired up and were angry after the game two loss. In that game, after blowing yet another double digit lead, the Celtics battled back to go up by 5 points with about 3 minutes to go in the game. Boston still ended up on the wrong end of the final score and now it is payback time. The only time the Celtics were off back to back losses in this post-season they then blasted the Raptors by 22 points in the next game. Including regular season occurrences too, Boston is 7-2 SU this season when they enter a game off 2 or more consecutive losses. With this line having dropped down from a 3 to a 2.5 there is even more value with taking the Celtics to bounce back large in this game. Look for them to do just that. 10* BOSTON |
|||||||
09-19-20 | Stars +135 v. Lightning | Top | 4-1 | Win | 135 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NHL Rotation #21 Saturday 10* Top Play Dallas Stars Money Line (+) vs Tampa Bay Lightning @ 7:35 ET - While I certainly respect the Lightning the value is with the Stars in Game 1 of this series. Dallas has the rest edge as they have been off since Monday while the Lightning just wrapped up their series with the Islanders on Thursday and it took overtime to do it. That was the 2nd straight OT game for Tampa Bay and the prior one was a double overtime loss on Tuesday. Both those games (each requiring extra time) took place AFTER the Stars had dispatched of the Golden Knights with a win on Monday. The rest edge is big and Dallas goalie Anton Khudobin has been playing extremely well. That is not to say that Andrei Vasilevskiy has not also been playing well because he has. But with underdog value, a rested team, and getting strong goalie play - the variables favor the money line dog in this one as they have won 5 of their last 6 games. The fact that the Bolts are just 2-2 their last 4 with one of the wins requiring OT as well is a little bit of a dent in Tampa Bay's confidence level and also Brayden Point did not look 100 percent to me in the most recent game for the Lightning and they really need him to be healthy to be as strong as they can be. Advantage: Stars. 10* DALLAS |
|||||||
09-19-20 | Blue Jays v. Phillies OVER 8 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #903 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Philadelphia Phillies vs Toronto Blue Jays @ 6:05 ET - The coldest team in MLB right now is the Blue Jays whom have lost 5 straight games. Play on Phillies here? No, not even with "monopoly money". Lol. The fact is Phillies fans wish Vince Velasquez would never pitch another game in a Philadelphia uniform. He has had so many chances to prove himself through the years since the Phillies got him in a trade with the Astros. However, the only thing he has been consistent with is his struggles. He just can't put it together on the mound but I do like the Phillies bats - riding a double-header sweep yesterday - to stay hot here. Yes, I know that Hyun-Jin Ryu has good career numbers against the Phillies and is having a strong season. However, riding the momentum of yesterday's win and the fact that Ryu won't pitch that deep into this game, the Phillies will do some damage at the plate here. However, with Velasquez (winless and 6.46 ERA this season) and the worst bullpen in baseball, the Phillies have no chance of holding the Blue Jays down in this one. Considering the above as well as the fact that this total has dropped from an opener of 9 down to as low as an 8 as of early Saturday morning, I like the value in what should be a back and forth game with more runs than many expect. 10* OVER the total in Philadelphia |
|||||||
09-19-20 | Troy v. Middle Tennessee State OVER 64.5 | Top | 47-14 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #135 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs Troy Trojans @ 3:30 ET - The Blue Raiders are off an embarrassing 42-0 loss at Army. However, the Black Knights might have a little something going up there at West Point! They have won their first two games by a combined score of 79-7. Middle Tennessee is well-coached and will respond in a huge way at home. The weather is going to be perfect in Murfreesboro this afternoon as well. The reason I am not backing the Blue Raiders here is because even though I expect their offense to respond huge here, I don't trust their defense and they are hosting a tough Troy team. The Trojans, just like MTSU, can put up points in a hurry but struggle on defense. Troy averaged 34 points a game last season but allowed 35 points per game and the Trojans were particularly bad against the pass. That plays right into the hands of a Middle Tennessee offense which is led by dual-threat QB Asher O'Hara. Coming off that ugly effort at Army two weeks ago, the Blue Raiders will look like a different team against the Trojans defense. However, the issue for MTSU is their defense is a major question mark again this season and they really struggled against the pass last season and that is forecast to continue this season as well. Two very bad pass defenses, two dangerous passing attacks, and beautiful autumn afternoon weather with light winds...the set up is deal for this game to get into the 70s and possibly even 80s when all is said and done. 10* OVER the total in Middle Tennessee |
|||||||
09-18-20 | Nuggets +7 v. Lakers | Top | 114-126 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NBA Rotation #733 Friday 10* Top Play Denver Nuggets (+) vs Los Angeles Lakers @ 9 ET - The Lakers have won 8 of 9 games and all 8 wins have come by 8 or more points. So what did the books use as an opener for this game? 6.5 which of course is already attracting Lakers money. That opening line tells me the book makers (arguably the "sharpest people in the room") like the Nuggets here. Going against the public bettors in typical contrarian fashion here I am with the book makers and on the other side of the public. I am grabbing the Nuggets - currently a +7 as of early Friday morning. Keep in mind the Lakers did lose Game 1 of each of their series OUTRIGHT and I am not saying that will happen here but that is certainly a good sign that Denver could surprise the Lakers a bit in this first game. There could be some rust for Los Angeles too since they have not played since Saturday - a span of nearly a full week. A little rest is good but too much rest is certainly not. As for the Nuggets, they have won 3 straight and 7 of 10 games. Also, in those 10 games only 2 were defeats by more than 6 points. Additionally, Denver has a good cycle of consistently playing without any long layoffs. That is because the Nuggets have seen each of their first two series go 7 games. Everyone continues to doubt Denver but they just beat the Clippers. Yes, the LA team led by Kawhi Leonard who knows a thing or two about winning NBA championships. In other words, give the Nuggets some credit and don't be surprised when they are in this game to the final buzzer. 10* DENVER |
|||||||
09-18-20 | Braves v. Mets OVER 8.5 | Top | 15-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #959 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves @ 7:10 ET - I am aware of Max Fried being a candidate for the Cy Young award this season. I am also aware of the weather forecast featuring a north wind blowing in and a little taste of fall in the air this evening in New York. However, the Mets lineup is red-hot and the Braves have been one of the top hitting teams in baseball this season, and I expect this game to fly over the low total. Keep in mind, there has been a pitching change announced Thursday for this Friday match-up and it will be Steven Matz getting the start. Not only is he 0-4 with an 8.63 ERA this season, he is making his first start since mid-August as he has been bothered by shoulder bursitis in his left arm. This is a battle of southpaws and, speaking of injuries, Fried is also coming back from one as he has had muscle spasms lead to an issue in his back. Fried will be making his first start in nearly two weeks. He has allowed 5 earned runs on 10 hits and 5 walks in his last two starts so he has been far from dominant in recent outings. Fried is facing a Mets team that is familiar with him and has a number of hitters whom have enjoyed success against him. As for Matz, he is now 18-32 with a 4.69 ERA since the 2017 season began. You can see why I have no hesitation in fading him here. Opponents are hitting .364 against Matz in night games this season and he has an 11.64 ERA under the lights. The 29-year old southpaw faces an Atlanta team which has a .479 slugging percentage ranking #2 in the majors this year. The Braves have won 11 of 18 games and have scored an average of 7.1 runs during this solid stretch. The Mets are off a momentum-boosting series against the Phillies and have won 8 of 14 games and scored an average of 6.6 runs per game their last 15 games. More of the same here. 10* OVER the total in New York Mets |
|||||||
09-17-20 | Bengals v. Browns OVER 43.5 | Top | 30-35 | Win | 100 | 14 h 49 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #101 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cleveland Browns vs Cincinnati Bengals @ 8:20 ET - Both teams games stayed under the total in Week One but yet this total opened up as high as a 46. Not surprisingly, the total has since dropped by about a field goal. In typical contrarian fashion, I am on the other side of the line move and taking advantage of the added value. Of course being on the other side it is not without reasoning of course. For one thing, even though the Browns scored only 6 points in Week One, they faced a very tough Ravens defense. Also, Cleveland had 20 first downs in that game so they were able to "move the chains" decently but were done in by 3 turnovers and a lack of execution at key times. The Browns will undoubtedly be able to execute a little better against a Bengals defense which ranked dead last against the run last season and was one of the worst defenses in the league overall based on yardage and scoring. The Browns defense wasn't a whole lot better as they were #30 against the run last season and also ranked 20th or worse in the categories of overall defense based on yardage and scoring. Cleveland got Hunt and Chubb going on the ground in Week One and Cincinnati got solid yardage on the ground from Mixon plus from QB Burrow. Establishing the ground game can open things up for the aerial attack and both Burrow and Browns QB Mayfield should have stronger games this week. I know the Bengals game totaled just 35 points last week but Cincinnati and the Chargers both had wasted scoring opportunities and also settled for field goals instead of touchdowns. All of this has led to line value with this total this week and I won't hesitate to step in on this one. Both teams will "open up the playbooks on offense" a little more after a conservative Week One efforts that were practically like preseason games for teams to try and work out the kinks after a strange off-season. 10* OVER the total in Cleveland |
|||||||
09-17-20 | Heat v. Celtics UNDER 209 | Top | 106-101 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NBA Rotation #702 Thursday 10* Top Play UNDER the total in Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat @ 7 ET - The Celtics lost in OT in Game 1 of this series on Tuesday and that was just their 4th loss of this post-season. So how does Boston react after a defeat? They turn to their defense! After their first 3 losses of this post-season their next game has stayed under the total all 3 times. The Celtics have allowed an average of only 92 points per game when off a loss in these playoffs. Boston has scored an average of only 99 points per game when off a defeat in this post-season. With numbers like that this game is unlikely to get to 200 let alone 210. This is particularly true when you also consider that is unlikely the Heat again knock down 44.4% of their three pointers and score 48 points from beyond the arc in the process. Miami's defense is good too and they'll do everything they can to go up 2-0 in this series. That said, look for a low-scoring grinder on Thursday night. 10* UNDER the total in Boston |
|||||||
09-17-20 | Mets v. Phillies -115 | Top | 10-6 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
Divisional Dominator - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #910 Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (-) vs New York Mets @ 7:05 ET - This line has gone from an opener in the -140 range to as low as -115. I like the Phillies here as they have staff ace Aaron Nola on the mound and look to bounce back from letting a big lead slip away in yesterday's 5-4 loss to the Mets. Note that Nola has a 1.65 ERA in his last 4 starts. Also, this season at home he has a 1.57 ERA and has held opponents to a .133 batting average. I know Seth Lugo has been pitching well for Mets but the Phillies have 6 hitters who are hitting .278 or better against him. Also, Lugo has not pitched as well on the road as he has at home. He is 0-3 with a 3.77 ERA and a .293 BAA in 7 road games (2 starts) this season. More of the same on tap here and the Phillies improve to 7-3 the last 10 times they were off a loss in which they allowed 5 or more runs. Philly, prior to yesterday's loss, was on an 11-2 run in home games including 4-0 against the Mets. Phillies at home and with Nola on the mound are in the perfect spot to bounce right back and we get a great price here. Lay it! 10* PHILADELPHIA |
|||||||
09-16-20 | Indians v. Cubs OVER 8 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #975 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Chicago Cubs vs Cleveland Indians @ 8:15 ET - Yesterday's game didn't get over the total until late but each team did finish the game with scoring at least 5 runs and with totaling 11 hits apiece. When both lineups are going and you have a low total like we do today I won't hesitate to take advantage. Yes, I know cooler weather moving into the Chicago area this time of year and the wind is expected to be blowing in for this contest. However, that is also serving to keep this total lower than it should be in my opinion. Jon Lester starts for the Cubs and is off a strong start. However, he has not had solid back to back starts since early August. In fact, prior to his good start last week, Lester had allowed 5 or more earned runs in 4 of his last 5 starts. That rough stretch was preceded by a quality start against the Indians. However, the fact that Cleveland is now facing him a 2nd time plus the fact he had been struggling prior to strong start at Milwaukee sets this one up well for Cleveland to do some damage at the plate. They'll need it because I do expect Aaron Civale to get touched up too! Civale gave up 4 earned runs in 6 innings in his most recent start and that was at home. In his most recent road start he allowed 5 earned runs in 6 innings. Civale is facing a Cubs lineup that is growing with confidence as Chicago has won 4 of 5 games and scored an average of 7.5 runs per game in those 4 victories. The Indians are mired in a 7-game losing streak but runs are coming in bunches in recent games as yesterday's loss here at Wrigley Field was the 3rd straight Cleveland game to total more than 10 runs. More of the same expected here! 10* OVER the total in the Chicago Cubs game |
|||||||
09-15-20 | A's v. Rockies OVER 11.5 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #923 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Oakland A's @ 8:40 ET - The Rockies are hitting .284 against left-handed pitching this season. That ranks them 4th in the majors and they should pound Sean Manaea here. The A's southpaw has made one career start at Coors Field and he allowed 9 hits in just 5 innings of work. However, the Oakland bats should also be rolling tonight. Yesterday the Athletics played a double header at Seattle and scored 14 runs in 14 innings! Now they take on a struggling Antonio Senzatela of the Rockies. The Colorado right-hander has been hit hard in 3 of his last 4 outings. In those 3 starts Senzatela has given up 12 earned runs on 20 hits in 15 and 2/3 innings of work. Keep in mind, opponents hit .313 against him last year and he compiled a 6.71 ERA on the season. Now Senzatela appears to be regressing toward the same struggles that plagued him last season. Facing the hot A's lineup is unlikely to help matters. Oakland has scored an average of 6.5 runs in their last 6 games and 4 of those games were just 7 inning games! In fact if you adjust that factor out of it then it would mean the A's are averaging about 8 runs per 9 innings over their last 6 games. The last two games played at Coors Field have been low-scoring but this was immediately preceded by a stretch in which 11 of the 15 games played here totaled at least a dozen runs and most of those got into the mid-teens which is what I am forecasting here. 10* OVER the total in Colorado |
|||||||
09-15-20 | Heat +2 v. Celtics | Top | 117-114 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NBA Rotation #731 Tuesday 10* Top Play Miami Heat (+) vs Boston Celtics @ 6:40 ET - The Celtics are off a 5-point win to close out Toronto but that was preceded by losing 3 of 4 to the Raptors. Also, Boston's win that preceded the tough 1-3 stretch came by just 3 points. The point is that the Celtics have only 1 blowout win in their last 6 games and I like having the value of the couple points here with the rested Heat in this one. I know one could argue that Miami has had too much rest and could be rusty here but I just don't see Jimmy Butler and company staying rusty for more than a few minutes into this game - if even that! The Heat are 8-1 in the playoffs and the lone loss came in overtime! Miami won the one game between these teams in the bubble (August 4th victory) and I look for them to get the upset win in Game One of the Eastern Conference finals as well. Grab the points with the Heat on Tuesday. 10* MIAMI |
|||||||
09-14-20 | Stars +155 v. Golden Knights | Top | 3-2 | Win | 155 | 10 h 60 m | Show |
NBCSN Blowout Rout - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NHL Rotation #5 Monday 10* Top Play Dallas Stars Money Line (+) vs Vegas Golden Knights @ 8:10 PM ET - Not only is Vegas now down 3-1 in this series, they have lost 5 of their last 7 games. Once touted as a powerhouse that was on its way to a Stanley Cup title, the Golden Knights are struggling with running into red hot goalies. First it was Thatcher Demko with the Canucks and now it is Anton Khudobin with the Stars. Vegas has been held to just 1.4 goals per game in their last 7 games and some of those were empty netters too! They are generating shots on goal but it doesn't matter if you're not getting truly quality scoring chances and Dallas has been limiting those for sure plus getting strong play from their defensemen around and in front of the net as well. The Stars have all the momentum, a very experienced coaching staff, and the Golden Knights continue to be over-priced. Yes they are in a must-win situation but that actually puts even more pressure on them. While Vegas is squeezing the sticks a little too tight, the Stars are playing confident and with no pressure on them. That combination makes for a very dangerous underdog and I'll again take the generous comeback price being offered here. 10* DALLAS |
|||||||
09-14-20 | Steelers -5.5 v. Giants | Top | 26-16 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #479 Monday 10* Top Play Pittsburgh Steelers (-) @ New York Giants @ 7:15 ET - Continuity matters in a season like this that is being played without a normal off-season to say the least. Not only that, no pre-season either. That said, can a situation be any worse than that of the Giants. They brought in a new head coach, new offensive coordinator, and new defensive coordinator. New York begins the season by taking on a Steelers team that gets a big boost with the return of QB Ben Roethlisberger under center. The Pittsburgh offense stumbled badly in 2019 without him but were solid in 2018 with him. As for the Giants, a number of concerns along the offensive line and I expect the Steelers to dominate this game in the trenches. New York will struggle to establish the run as a result and this will turn Giants QB Jones into a sitting duck for the Steelers blitz-heavy packages. This one can (and should) get ugly and I am laying the points with the road team. Yes it may seem a bit much but it is justified. In fact, the Giants are on a 1-10 ATS run as home dogs! Also, the Steelers are on a 6-2 ATS run against NFC opponents and New York has failed to cover eight straight home openers! This one turns into a road rout. 10* PITTSBURGH |
|||||||
09-14-20 | Phillies +125 v. Marlins | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 41 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #971 Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (+) @ Miami Marlins @ 4:10 ET - Even with yesterday's double-header sweep, the Marlins are still just 6-11 at home this season. Miami did leapfrog the Phillies in the standings courtesy of yesterday's sweep. That said, I look for Philadelphia to return the favor with a win here. Simply too much value here to pass up in terms of grabbing an underdog in a great spot against a team that, yesterday notwithstanding, is truly not very good. Before the sweep yesterday the Marlins had lost 20 of 34 games. The Phillies had won 14 of their last 20 games prior to getting swept yesterday. Also, Velasquez gets the start here and struck out 9 in just 5 innings in his most recent start. He is a very talented pitcher capable of getting hot (and growing in confidence) at any moment and this could be another one of those strong stretches beginning for Velasquez. As for the Marlins Lopez, he is off back to back horrific outings and has allowed 12 earned runs in less than 6 innings of work spanning those two starts. More of the same here and the Phillies get a huge lead in this one and never look back. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
|||||||
09-14-20 | Chelsea v. Brighton & Hove Albion OVER 2.5 | Top | 3-1 | Win | 110 | 20 h 55 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach EPL Rotation #200037 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Brighton and Hove vs Chelsea @ 3:15 PM ET - Last season in the Premier League no team was consistently involved in higher scoring away games than Chelsea. Their 19 road games totaled 77 goals for an average of 4 goals per game! It was consistent too as Chelsea allowed 38 goals and scored 39 goals. Of course that averages out to a 2-2 draw and I would not be surprised to see that type of result here although I also feel strongly that Chelsea could get all 3 goals (we need for the over) on their own. The fact is that Chelsea made some huge moves leading into this season to bolster their scoring prowess with some added firepower up front. However, there is still talk at Chelsea about signing a goaltender and another key defender. The point is that the added star power for Chelsea is up front and their weakness lies in their own end. Look for Brighton and Hove, at home, to take advantage and get at least a goal in this one while I don't see Chelsea being held back here. The guys they added wanted to come in and make a statement right away. Look for that to be the case in this one and though I feel Chelsea will find a way to win this one quite solidly they are a pricey favorite on the money line and I feel the best value in playing this game is on the total. Chelsea could very easily get the 3 goals we need on their own. But don't be surprised if they concede a goal or two. This one, in fact, could play out much like the over we had in Liverpool which was a 4-3 final on Saturday. 10* OVER 2.5 goals in Brighton |
|||||||
09-13-20 | Bucs v. Saints -3.5 | Top | 23-34 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #476 Sunday 10* Top Play New Orleans Saints (-) vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 4:25 ET - Remember all the hype last season about the Browns? Then Cleveland began the season with a 43-13 loss in their season opener on their way to a 2-6 start. The Browns also lost their final 3 games of the season to finish 6-10 for the year. Now certainly I am not saying the Bucs are down so low that they are on the same level as Cleveland. But what I am saying is sometimes playing against the "hype machine" is one of the best things you can do. TB is so over-rated right now in my opinion because of Brady and Gronkowski. Let me remind some people of some facts about this Buccaneers team. Tampa Bay is off a losing season, ranked 24th in the NFL for rushing yardage, near the bottom of the NFL in both punt returns and kick returns, 30th in the NFL for pass defense and 29th in the NFL for scoring defense. Now they are very small 3.5 point dogs ON THE ROAD against a Super Bowl contender coming off a 13-3 season and very hungry after losing their playoff game in overtime. The Saints have covered 11 of their last 14 games overall and this line was up closer to 6 and now is down near a field goal. That is big time value especially when you consider that Tampa Bay has covered just 3 of its last dozen games. I really enjoy watching over-hyped teams get blasted and am confident that we will see exactly that right here. 10* NEW ORLEANS |
|||||||
09-13-20 | Lightning -139 v. Islanders | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 48 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NHL Rotation #3 Sunday 10* Top Play Tampa Bay Lightning Money Line (-) vs New York Islanders @ 3:10 ET - The Islanders got the upset win in Game 4 but the Lightning were without both Brayden Point and Alex Killorn. At least the latter (suspension) will be back this afternoon but the former (injury) might also return. Either way I look for Tampa Bay to respond off the loss. Andrei Vasilevskiy had won 6 in a row prior to that defeat and I fully expect he and the Bolts to bounce back after falling short. Note that the Lightning are 3-0 in this post-season when off a loss. New York is certainly a strong hockey club but this is a TB team on a mission ever since getting swept out of the first round of the playoffs last year. That followed a phenomenal regular season for the Bolts and they're really locked in since the post-season began. We get some line value here as the money line is in the -140 range and I won't hesitate in raising this one to my top play rating as a result. 10* TAMPA BAY |
|||||||
09-13-20 | Braves v. Nationals OVER 9 | Top | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 3 h 51 m | Show |
Ultra Early Rout - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #901 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves @ 12:35 ET - While I certainly respect the Nats Max Scherzer I also very much respect the potent Braves lineup. Also, the weather will be ideal for an over in DC today. Additionally, the Braves Kyle Wright is likely to get crushed here. In 9 MLB starts in his career, he has only gotten through 5 innings twice! Wright has an ugly 8.80 ERA this season. Scherzer is off a great start versus the Rays but, prior to that, he had just 1 good start in his last 4. Those other 3 outings saw him allow a total of 12 earned runs in 17 and 2/3 innings. I feel the powerful Braves sticks, who had been on fire prior to yesterday, are going to get to Scherzer early and often. The last time he faced them he gave up 3 earned runs on 7 hits in just 5 innings of work. With Atlanta having a strong showing at the plate and Wright continuing to get hammered, this one will surprise a lot of people as it gets into double digits in runs scored even though Scherzer is on the mound for the Nats. 10* OVER the total in Washington |
|||||||
09-13-20 | Everton v. Tottenham Hotspur -102 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -102 | 17 h 47 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach EPL Rotation #200010 Sunday 10* Top Play Tottenham -105 vs Everton @ 11:30 AM ET - When you are playing the 3-way line and you are not betting on the draw of course the last thing you want is a tie! That said, one of the things to like about this match-up is that Tottenham had only 3 draws in their 19 home games last season and Everton also had just 3 draws in their 19 road games last season. As for the other 16 games Tottenham went 12-4 as a host while Everton went 5-11 as travelers. Not only do we have the home/road dichotomy working strongly in our favor for this one, I also like the long-term history as Everton has gone 11 straight visits to Tottenham without a single victory - their last win here came in 2008. Also, Everton comes into this one with many more injury concerns than does Tottenham. Last, but certainly not least, Tottenham finished up last season just off the pace of the top four teams in the league. After just missing on the top four last season, that hunger level is definitely there for the home team and they want to make an immediate statement here in the opener against Everton and I feel strongly they will do just that. 10* Tottenham -105 |
|||||||
09-12-20 | Golden Knights v. Stars +151 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 151 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
NBC Blowout Rout - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NHL Rotation #2 Saturday 10* Top Play Dallas Stars Money Line (+) vs Vegas Golden Knights @ 8:10 ET - The Golden Knights, make no mistake about it, are a very good hockey club. However, they continue to be over-priced throughout this series. Dallas is already up 2 games to 1 but you would think based on pricing that Vegas has dominated the Stars and it is just not the case. Be careful looking at shots on goal as some of that is in relation to Dallas playing with the lead and not playing as aggressively as a result. Speaking of that, and here is the most important reason as to why there is no justification for Vegas to continually be in the -170 range in this season, but lets talk about playing with the lead in this series. Dallas scored early in Game 1 and won in a shutout. Then in Game 2 the Golden Knights erupted in the 2nd period and won in a shutout. Then in Game 3 the Stars never trailed the entire game. That means out of 9 periods of hockey Vegas has led for less than 2 periods. Does that sound like a team that should be so heavily favored? Another key thing I keep coming back to as well is that Vegas beat a 12th seeded Blackhawks team and a young Canucks team to get here. The Stars beat a tough Flames team and a highly-regarded Avalanche team to get here. This line is simply not priced right and with all the pressure on the Golden Knights now, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Stars be an extra dangerous foe in this one as they are playing without pressure now. In other words, upset alert...again! 10* DALLAS |
|||||||
09-12-20 | Rockets +6.5 v. Lakers | Top | 96-119 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NBA Rotation #723 Saturday 10* Top Play Houston Rockets (+) vs Los Angeles Lakers @ 8 ET - The Rockets lost Game 4 by 10 points and that was with Harden making just 2 of 11 shots from the field! That said, and in a "win or go home" situation for Houston in Game 5, I am looking for an underdog bounce back in this game. After getting the upset win in Game 1, the Rockets have lost 3 straight games but none by more than 10 points. I realize the smallest margin of defeat in this series has been 8 points but if Houston falls short in this one look for it to be by a bucket or two. When the Rockets have entered a game on a losing streak of 3 or more games this season they went 4-2 SU and one of the two losses came by just 5 points which means, at today's number, Houston would be 5-1 ATS in this role. After a disappointing effort in Game 4, look for the Rockets to respond here. Keep in mind, prior to that one, they had won Game 1, led Game 2 going to 4th quarter, and were tied in Game 3 going to 4th quarter. I don't see the Lakers being able to pull away again here against a fired up and determined underdog playing for their playoff lives. 10* HOUSTON |