10* NBA Over/Under PLAY OF THE WEEK

PLAY ON RAPTORS/KINGS OVER 237: I will gladly take my chances with the OVER 237 in Wednesday's non-conference clash between the Raptors and Kings. 

I think the spread can sometimes give you a good feel for how the books see the game playing out. The fact that Toronto was just a 4.5-point dog when the line opened and has dropped to 3.5, tells me the books like the Raptors in this spot. Given that the Raptors have are 6-games under .500 and losers of 3 of their last 4, the books know everyone is going to be on Sacramento, given the Kings come in having won 7 of their last 8 and fresh off a 133-100 blowout win over the Grizzlies. 

I'm not quite ready to bet against the Kings as a small home favorite, but I do think there's big time value with the OVER. Given how good the Kings offense is, especially at home (124.7 ppg), you have to think the only way for Toronto to cover is for them to win in a shootout. I agree and I think I'm with the books in that we aren't going to get a huge effort defensively from Sacramento in this game. 

On the flip side, the Raptors just played a 3-game road trip at New York, Milwaukee and Minnesota, where they gave up 121 to the Knicks, 130 to the Bucks and 128 to the T-Wolves. This is one of those games where I will be shocked if both teams don't hit at least 120 points. Give me the OVER 237! 

10* NBA Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER

PLAY ON UNDER 239.5: The total here is simply too high given the tough scheduling spots we find both of these teams. I got to think both of these teams are going to be looking to slow the tempo down. 

The Hawks are playing their 3rd game in 4 nights after a 139-124 blowout win over the Knicks on Friday and then a 118-122 loss at home to the Hornets on Saturday. Worth noting it's just not a bad short-term stretch for rest with the Hawks. This will also be their 7th game in the last 11 days. As for the Bulls, they are playing on a full 3 days of rest, but their last game was played in Paris. 

For this game to go over the number, both teams are likely going to have to score in the 120's. I wouldn't be shocked if neither team got to 120. Give me the UNDER 238.5! 

10* NBA Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: Magic/Blazers OVER 229.5

I'll take my chances with the OVER 229.5 in Tuesday's matchup between the Magic and Blazers. I don't see these two teams having much trouble eclipsing 230 points. Orlando will be playing this game on no rest after last night's 111-136 loss at Sacramento. OVER is 5-2 in the second leg of back-to-back games with Orlando this season. Magic are giving up 120 ppg in this spot. OVER is 4-1 in Portland's last 5 home games, with the lone exception being a game against the Hornets that went UNDER despite the two teams combining for 237 points. Blazers have put up 127.2 ppg during this 5-game home stretch. 

You got to go into this game expecting Portland to at the very least put up 120 points, which means we would need just 110 from Orlando to cash this ticket. A mark the Magic have hit in 13 of their last 16 games. Blazers allow 112.1 ppg on the season. I just think with how easy it's going to be on offense, the effort isn't going to be all that great on defense. As long as Orlando doesn't go ice cold in this game, we cash this easy. Give me the OVER 229.5! 

10* NBA Over/Under VEGAS INSIDER: Clippers/Nuggets OVER 227.5

I'll take my chances with the OVER 227.5 in Thursday's showdown between the Clippers and Nuggets. LA could be without Paul George for this game, which is a big loss for the Clippers offense. However, they should be just fine offensively against a leaky Denver defense that ranks 27th in defensive efficiency. 

These two teams combined for 110 in their previous meeting this season, but LA didn't have George or Kawhi Leonard. Kawhi has been playing consistently for a good stretch now and has put in 20+ points in 3 of his last 4 games. John Wall tormented Denver's defense for 23 points on 8 of 10 shooting in that first meeting. Leonard and Wall should provide a solid 1-2 punch in this one. 

As for the Clippers defense, it's certainly not as good without George on the floor. LA is a team that I think struggles to defend the big men inside and Denver has the best in the business down low in Jokic. Nuggets offense as a whole ranks 2nd in the NBA behind only the Celtics in offensive efficiency. Give me the OVER 227.5! 

10* NBA - Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH: Spurs/Knicks OVER 226.5

I'll take my chances with the OVER 226.5 in Wednesday's game between the Spurs and Knicks. There's not much you really need to look at here besides how recent San Antonio games have gone. The OVER has cashed in 8 straight and 11 of the last 12 games the Spurs have played. The only game that didn't was against the Heat, who play at one of the slowest paces in the league. 

San Antonio has allowed at least 115 points in 7 straight games, 6 times giving up 122 or more. They are scoring 115.5 ppg over their last 13. This team is built for shootouts and I just don't think this total should be less than 230. 

Knicks are extremely well rested. Their only game so far in January was Monday's 102-83 win at home over the Suns, where they coasted after getting a big lead early. I don't see them having any problem scoring 120+ points in this one. Spurs at the very least should give us around 110. That's more than enough to cash this ticket. Give me the OVER 226.5! 

10* NBA Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: Bucks/Mavs UNDER 224.5

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 224.5 in Friday's showdown between the Bucks and Mavs on ESPN. I'm expecting a pretty big effort from these two in this nationally televised game. Milwaukee comes into this game ranked 3rd in the NBA in defensive efficiency and I really like the fact that they got an elite perimeter defender in Jrue Holiday to put on Luka Doncic. 

I also don't feel like the Mavs get enough respect on the defensive side of the ball at home. Dallas is only giving up 104.4 ppg on 45.9% shooting at home this year. The Bucks are also a different offensive team at home. Milwaukee is averaging 113.1 ppg on 46% shooting for the season, yet are scoring just 106.3 ppg on 43% shooting on the road. UNDER has cashed in 7 of the 9 road games for the Bucks this season. 

UNDER is 20-7 in the Mavs last 27 as a home dog and 9-1 in their last 10 at home when they are playing 8 or more games in a 14 day stretch. UNDER is 20-9 in Milwaukee's last 29 with a line of +3 to -3 and 18-8 in their last 26 as a road favorite of 6 or less. Give me the UNDER 224.5! 

10* NBA Over/Under TOTAL PLAY OF THE WEEK: Suns/Kings OVER 231.5

I'll take my chances with the OVER 231.5 in Monday's NBA matchup between the Suns and Kings. I don't see these two teams having much trouble eclipsing this number. The Kings are seeing an average combined score of 241.8 ppg at home this season, as they are scoring 123.9 ppg and giving up 117.9 ppg. 

Phoenix is allowing just 107.7 ppg and 45.5% shooting for the season, but they are not the same defensive team on the road as they are at home. Suns are allowing 112.3 ppg and 48% shooting on the road. 

These are two of the most efficient offensive teams in the league, as they come in tied for 3rd in offensive efficiency at 113.4. Kings should be able to control the tempo here as well, as they are playing on a full 2 days of rest, while Phoenix is playing their 3rd game in 4 nights. Give me the OVER 231.5! 

10* NBA Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: Nuggets/Celtics OVER 230.5

I'll take my chances with the OVER 230.5 in Friday's showdown between the Nuggets and Celtics. I don't see these two teams having any problem getting into the 230s. Boston has seen an average combined score of 237.2 points in their 5 home games this year. Denver has seen an average combined score of 235.6 in their 7 road games. 

These are the two most efficient offenses in the league with Boston ranking first in offensive efficiency and the Nuggets in second. Not only that, but both of these teams rank in the bottom 10 of the league in defensive efficiency. Unless we get some dreadful shooting by both teams, this should easily get past the number, as I think both of these teams will finish in the 120s. Give me the OVER 230.5! 

10* NBA Over/Under PLAY OF THE MONTH: Knicks/Hornets OVER 224

I love the OVER 224 in Wednesday's matchup between the Knicks and Hornets. I'm shocked the total here isn't in the 230s. Both these teams are looking to play fast early on. Charlotte comes in ranked 3rd in the NBA in pace at 105.6 and New York is 12th at 101.9. Not only are these to pushing the tempo, they are two of the most efficient offensive teams. Charlotte ranks 3rd in offensive efficiency at 116.7 points per 100 possessions and the Knicks are 89th at 112.8 points per 100 possessions. Each of the Hornets 3 games have seen a combined score of 231 or more points, while the Knicks are seeing an average combined score of 226.7 points thru their first 3 games. Give me the OVER 224! 

Eastern Conf Finals (Game 5) MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 204) 

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 204 in Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Finals between the Celtics and Heat. I always like to look to the UNDER in a series when it's tied 2-2 going into a Game 5. It's not quite the same as a Game 7, but it has that feel to it, where both teams are pulling out all the stops to go up 3-2 in what is now a best of 3 series. 

We finally saw a defensive game in Game 4, after each of the first 3 games went OVER the total. The two combined for just 184 points in Game 4. I see no reason not to expect more of the same. Both teams are dealing with big injuries. Boston is likely without Smart and Heat could be playing without both Lowry and Herro. Either way, these two teams know how they want to defend the opposition. Give me the UNDER 204! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

Eastern Conf Finals (Game 3) MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 207.5) 

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 207.5 in Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals. It's been a a lot higher scoring series so far. Both Game 1 and Game 2 went OVER the total. They went for 225 with a total of 203.5 in Game 1 and for 229 with a total of 206 in Game 2. 

Why go UNDER in Game 3? This to me is when the series really start to flip to the defenses having the edge. Both teams are now very familiar with what both teams want to do and the adjustments they make when they try to take something away. 

Not only that, but I think we see the defense turned up a notch anytime a series is tied. Both teams are going to be extremely motivated to take a 2-1 series lead. We finally get the defensive showdown we thought we would see from the start. Give me the UNDER 207.5! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

Eastern Conference Finals (Game 2) MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 208)

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 208 in Game 2 of the Eastern Conference Finals. A lot of people were on the UNDER in Game 1 and got burned as that went well past the total of 203.5 with the game finishing at 225. 

We cashed the Heat -1.5 in that one, but had I been forced to play the total I would have leaned to the OVER. I just didn't think Boston would be at their best defensively coming off back-to-back elimination wins with just one day off from their Game 7 win against the Bucks. Not only that, but they were without two of their better defenders in Marcus Smart and Al Horford. 

Now it's time to look to the UNDER with the books jumping this total up to 208. Boston should be much better defensively in Game 2. While Horford is still out, Smart has been upgraded to probable. Having the DPOY on the floor is a big deal. It's also going to help having seen what Miami wants to do offensively. Plus, it's unlikely the Heat play as well offensively (shot 49% from the field and got 41 points from Jimmy Butler). Give me the UNDER 208! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

NBA Playoffs Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Under 214.5) 

I will take my chances with the UNDER 214.5 in Game 5 between the Celtics and Bucks. I always lean UNDER in Game 5 when a series is tied 2-2, as it just has that Game 7 feel to it with both teams desperately wanting to get a win to take control of the series. We saw the UNDER cash in this spot in both games last night. 

The two teams did go OVER the total in Game 4, but note that was the first time this entire postseason that a game involving the Bucks finished OVER the total. UNDER is 8-1. I just think that given what's at stake, it's going to be hard for both teams to get to 100 points and I wouldn't be shocked if neither team did. Give me the UNDER 214.5! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

NBA Playoffs Smart Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Under 213)

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 213 in Game 3 between the Bucks and Celtics. The UNDER has cashed in each of the first two games of this series and is now a perfect 7-0 in Milwaukee's 7 playoff games. 

These are two of the best defensive teams in the league. With the series tied at 1-1, you got to think both of these teams are going to be locked in on the defensive side of the ball. Keep in mind we saw both teams shoot close to 47% in Game 2 and yet they still only combined for 195 points. I've said it in each of the first two games. It's going to be a struggle for both teams to hit that 100 point mark. Give me the UNDER 213! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

NBA Playoffs Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 209)

I will gladly take my chances with the UNDER at 209 in Game 1 between the 76ers and Heat. Two big names for both sides will be out of this one. Joel Embiid is out until at least Game 3 and Kyle Lowry will miss the game for Miami. 

Embiid is an absolute massive blow to the 76ers, especially on the offensive side of the ball. I just don't see the likes of Harden/Maxey/Harris having a lot of success against this Miami defense. There's going to be no easy buckets for Philly. 

Embiid is also a big part of the 76ers' defense, but they can still be good on that side without him. It also helps them that the Lowry, Miami's floor general, won't be on the floor. I wouldn't be surprised at all if both teams failed to reach 100 points. Give me the UNDER 209! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

NBA Playoffs Round 2 VEGAS INSIDER (Under 218) 

I absolutely love the UNDER at 218 in Game 1 of the Celtics/Bucks series. I think these are two of the best defensive teams in the league. The transformation that Boston has had defensively from the start of the year to now is pretty remarkable.

That defense just made KD look like an average player in their sweep of the Nets in the first round. Now they face a Bucks team down one of their top scorers in Middleton.

Milwaukee might not be on the Celtics level defensively, but they aren't far behind. The Bucks defense dominated a pretty good Bulls offense in the first round. It will be much harder against Boston, but they are up to the task. Getting to 100 points will be a struggle for both sides. Give me the UNDER 218! 

Confidence Rating: 9 (Scale of 1-10)

50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 236) 

We saw both play-in games last night go UNDER the total. The Clippers/Wolves only combined for 213 with a total of 231. The Nets/Cavs did come close with 223 and a total of 227, but that was with a 65-point 4th quarter. 

That's just a prime example of how much better the defense gets in the postseason. That was with neither of those teams being eliminated with a loss. Tonight it's win or go home for these 9/10 matchups. 

As good as these two offenses are and how both can struggle defensively at times, the total shouldn't be in the high 230s! Give me the UNDER 236! 

50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (OVER 212.5) 

I'll take my chances with the OVER 212.5 in Wednesday's non-conference matchup between the Mavs and Cavs. I think it's going to be tough for Cleveland to stop the Mavs with both Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen. The defense has not been good since Allen went out and now they are really behind the 8-ball on that side of the ball with Mobley out. 

As for the Mavs, I don't think they are going to have enough in the tank to be anywhere close to their best on the defensive side of the ball. Dallas hosted the Jazz on Sunday and then hosted the Lakers last night. Mavs are also sitting good in the standings, at 4th place in the West, 2 games in front of the Jazz and Nuggets. Easy spot for them to just go through the motions defensively. Give me the OVER 212.5! 

50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 232) 

I love the UNDER 232 in Tuesday's Eastern Conference showdown between the Bucks and 76ers. This feels like a game where both of these teams are going to bring it. Both of these teams think they are the team to beat in the East and both are just 1-game back of the Heat for the No. 1 seed. 

You also got both of these teams not just coming off a loss, but coming off a game where they didn't play well. Milwaukee got steamrolled by 25 at Memphis on Saturday and the 76ers lost by 10 at Phoenix. 

UNDER is 5-0 in Philly's last 5 as a home favorite and 8-1 in their last 9 at home with a total of 22 or more. UNDER is also 7-3 in the Bucks last 10 off 2 days of rest, 8-3 in their last 11 as a dog and 4-0 in their last 4 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Give me the UNDER 232! 

50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 215.5) 

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 215.5 in Monday's big Eastern Conference showdown between the Heat and 76ers. It not going to be playoff intensity, but I expect both teams to really be up for this game. This is Philly's last crack at catching the Heat for the No. 1 seed, as they are 3.5-back with just 11 games left for both teams.

Miami still has to hold of the Bucks, but would pretty much secure the No. 2 with a win. I also think there's also a little more incentive for the Heat with this being their first crack at Philly since they added James Harden. 

I just see this being a defensive game. Both these teams rank in the bottom 10 in pace and are very strong defensively. They have played 3 times this season and the most they have combined for is 207 with 2 games failing to reach 200. Give me the UNDER 215.5! 

50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (OVER 214.5) 

I really like the OVER 214.5 in Thursday's game between Los Angeles and Dallas. The Clippers have shown no interest in getting stops of late. LA gave up 137 at home to the Bucks on Sunday and then turned around and gave up 135 at Memphis on Tuesday. They have allowed 5 of their last 6 opponents to shoot 47% or better from the field, with 3 of the last 4 eclipsing 51%. No surprise the OVER 7-1-1 in their last 4 games. 

I don't see that defense flipping a switch against a good Mavs team, especially with how well Luka Doncic is playing right now. Doncic is averaging 31.0 ppg, 11.8 apg and 9.0 rpg in 4 games this month. 

Dallas does have a good defense, but LA's not been held under 100 points since scoring 94 against the Spurs way back on Jan. 15. I think as long as the Clippers can get to the century mark, this think will easily go over the number. Give me the OVER 214.5! 

50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 224.5) 

This is an easy play on the UNDER at 224.5 in Wednesday's game between the Nuggets and Jazz. Utah is dealing with some serious injury problems right now. Already without arguably their two best players in Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert, the Jazz just lost their top reserve, Joe Ingles, to a season-ending injury. They could also be without Hassan Whiteside, who is questionable with a back injury. 

As for the Nuggets, they don't figure to be looking to push the pace in this one. Denver has to be running on fumes, as they will be playing on no rest after a game last night in Minnesota. It's also their 6th straight on the road and 3rd in the last 4 nights. Give me the UNDER 224.5! 

50* (NBA) - TNT Total PLAY OF THE MONTH (Over 215) 

I'll take my chances with the OVER 215 between the Pacers and Warriors in the night cap of Thursday's TNT double-header. I just the market is low right now on this Golden State offense. The Warriors haven't exactly been lighting it up, as they have eclipsed 108 points just once in their 8 games and failed to even reach 100 in 5 of those games. 

It's not so much execution as it is they just haven't shot well. Golden State has shot worse than 43% from the field in 7 of their last 8. Some of that likely has to do with them playing 6 of their last 8 on the road. 

They only finished with 102 in their last game at home against Detroit, but they had 66 in the 1st half (scored 17 in the 3rd and 19 in the 4th). A lot of that is the game was over at the at half (GS led 66-38). 

I think the offense could be in store for a big game here against a injury plagued and tired Pacers team that will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days on no rest after a thrilling 111-104 comeback win against the Lakers. 

Note that Malcolm Brogdon has been on a minute restriction coming back from an achilles injury, so it's no guarantee he plays on the second of a back-to-back. Big man Domantas Sabonis injured his ankle. He finished the game, but head coach Rick Carlisle said it was "probably going to be significant." I just don't see a lot of defense being played for a Pacers team that hasn't been great on that side of the ball anyway. Give me the OVER 215

50* (NBA) - Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Over 225) 

I love the OVER 225 in tonight's NBA matchup between the Kings and Wizards. These are two teams that are really struggling to get stops right now and I don't see that changing tonight. 

Washington has allowed 113 or more in each of their last 4 games and teams are shooting 48.6% from the field against them over their last 5. 

It's not any better for Sacramento, who has allowed 117 or more in 4 straight and 115 or more in 9 of their last 10. They have allowed their opponent to shoot 50% or better in 3 of their last 4 and 47 or better in 9 of their last 10. Give me the OVER 225! 

50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (OVER 221.5) 

I love the OVER 221.5 in tonight's big NBA game between the Nets and Warriors. I know the UNDERS have been cashing left and right to start the 2021-22 season, but I actually think it's playing into our favor with this number. 

These are two exceptional offensive teams. The Nets had their struggles early on offense, but that has changed here of late and a big reason for that is James Harden is finally starting to play up to his potential. As for the Warriors, they have been a force offensively, averaging 115.1 ppg. I think both teams could get into the 120's, but we really just need something like a 115-110 final to cash this easy. Give me the OVER 221.5! 

50* (NBA) - Suns/Bucks Game 6 MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 222.5) 

As much as I wanted to go take the points with Phoenix here, the Suns have burnt me the last two games of this series. I also think the much stronger play in this one is the OVER. While these two teams combined for 242 in Game 5, Milwaukee had one of the greatest team shooting games in NBA Finals history. They couldn't miss in the 2nd and 3rd quarter. Phoenix was also on fire, as they shot 55.2% from the field. 

Look for the shooting to cool off in the first elimination game of the series. Phoenix must win to force a Game 7, so we know they are going to give everything they got defensively. While Milwaukee is up, this game is huge for them too. They don't want this to go to a Game 7. Give me the UNDER 222.5! 

50* (NBA) Hawks/Bucks MAX UNIT Top Play (Under 226) 

I think we are getting a really great price on the UNDER (226) in Game 2 of the Eastern Conference Finals. While Game 1 went over the total of 223.5 in the Hawks 116-113 win, it didn't get their by much. 

That was with some really big offensive performances by both teams. Trae Young had a game-high 48. He's getting all the praise and rightfully so, but John Collins had a monster game with 23 points and 15 boards. For the Bucks, they got 34 from Antetokoumpo and 33 from Holiday. 

We know we are going to get the best Milwaukee has to offer on the defensive side to avoid going down 0-2 before Game 3 in Atlanta. You also got to think that both teams will make some adjustments to slow the other team down. Give me the UNDER 226! 

50* (NBA) - Monday MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 220.5) 

I'm going to take my chances with the UNDER 220.5 in Game 1 between the Nuggets/Suns. These two teams played 3 times in the regular-season. Suns won 106-103 in the first meeting, Denver won 130-126 in overtime and 120-112 in double-overtime the next two. 

So while it looks like 2 of the 3 were high scoring, the game that ended with 156 had 28 points scored after regulation (tied 114-114) and in the game that had 132 there were 36 scored in extra time (tied 98-98).  Denver has also lost two starters since the last time they played in Jamal Murray and Will Barton. 

I think there's value with this total due to the Nuggets coming off a high-scoring series against the Blazers. Phoenix and Portland are actually tied (4th) in offensive efficiency at 114.9. The big difference is defense. Suns are 9th in defensive efficiency at 108.8 and the Blazers are 29th at 113.4. Phoenix is also tied with Denver in pace at 26th, where Portland was tied for 16th in pace. Give me the UNDER 220.5! 

50* (NBA) - Suns/Lakers MAX UNIT Top Play (Under 207.5) 

I like the UNDER 207.5 in Game 6 tonight between the Lakers and Suns. I'm torn on whether or not LA can win this game, but I am pretty confident that it will be low scoring. I think the Lakers are not only desperate facing elimination, but also embarrassed from that ugly loss in Game 5. The level of intensity they are going to have at home with their backs against the wall is going to be really high. 

At the same time, I don't think the Suns are feeling good about things. Sure they like that AD is hurt, but this thing can flip in a hurry if he comes back. Chris Paul knows to not like his team take this game lightly, just because they got a Game 7 at home if needed. I expect Phoenix to be just as motivated here to finish this thing off. I just don't think there's going to be enough pace and shot making to get this to the 210 range. Give me the UNDER 207.5! 

50* (NBA) - Grizzlies/Warriors MAX UNIT Top Play (Under 221) 

I will gladly take my chances with the UNDER 221 in Friday's Play-In matchup for the No. 8 seed between the Warriors and Grizzlies. While we just watched the Wizards/Pacers fly past the total last night, the UNDER has hit in 3 of the 5 play-in games with the only two OVERs coming in games that involved the Pacers. 

The Grizzlies/Spurs matchup on Wednesday went UNDER the total of 225 by 29 points, as the Grizzlies won that game by a final of 100-96. The Warriors/Lakers game stayed UNDER the total of 217 by 14 as LA won 103-100. 

Both of these teams were exceptional on the defensive end, as Memphis held the Spurs to just 35% shooting, while Golden State held the Lakers to 40.7% from the field. If you go back it's nothing new. Grizzlies have held 6 of their last 7 opponents to 44% or worse, while the Warriors have held 7 of their last 10 under that mark. These two played late in the regular-season and only combined for 214 points and that was with GW shooting 49%. Give me the UNDER 221! 

50* (NBA) - Tuesday *MAX UNIT* Top Play (Under 215.5) 

I really like the UNDER 215.5 in tonight's NBA matchup between the Heat and Mavs. These two teams are in similar spots down the stretch, as both are fighting to avoid the play-in tournament. Right now both are safe, but not by much. 

Mavs sit 6th, just 0.5-games ahead of 7th place Portland. Miami is 6th in the east, but are just 1-game up on 7th place Boston. Every win is huge for these two teams and I think with both teams having Monday off, we are going to get a big defensive effort. 

Both teams also figure to be without two of their top offensive playmakers, as the Mavs aren't expected to have Kristaps Porzingis and the Heat are going to be without Tyler Herro. Note Miami is also still without Oladipo and may not have the services of Iguodala. Give me the UNDER 215.5! 

50* (NBA) - Friday *MAX UNIT* Top Play (Under 219) 

I absolutely love the UNDER 219 in Friday's huge Western Conference showdown between the Suns and Jazz. The winner of this game will be in the drivers seat for the No. 1 seed in the west, as Utah comes into this matchup just 1-game up on the Suns with both teams having just 9 left on the schedule after this contest. Phoenix has the tiebreaker, so if the two finished tied they get the top spot. 

I think the defensive intensity is going to be very high on both sides. You also got Utah playing this game without Donovan Mitchell or Mike Conley. So while these two did combine for 230 in their last meeting, that was with Mitchell carrying the Jazz with 41 points. Conley was also in double-figures with 11. Give me the UNDER 219! 

50* (NBA) - Western Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Over 237.5) 

I love the OVER 237.5 in Tuesday's game between the Timberwolves and Kings. I just don't see any defense being played between these two Western Conference bottom feeders. Neither plays much defense as it is. Both certainly haven't been playing much of late, as Minnesota is giving up 121.8 ppg on 50% shooting in their last 5, while Sacramento has allowed 119.4 ppg on 51% shooting in their last 5. 

Key here is that both of these teams can score. I don't think it will take much for both of these teams to reach 120 points. Also, I think the fact that these two are scheduled to turn around and play each other again in Sacramento tomorrow night, gives that much more incentive to not try defensively in this first meeting. Give me the OVER 237.5! 

50* (NBA) - Wednesday *MAX UNIT* Top Play (Over 231) 

I love the OVER 231 in tonight's game between the Pelicans and Nets. While Brooklyn won't have the services of James Harden for a while, they are expected to get back Kevin Durant. The duo of Durant and Irving with all the role players they got is more than enough. 

I look for the Nets to have a field day offensively against an awful Pelicans defense that is giving up 117.6 ppg over their last 5. They didn't even try to defend the 3-point line in last night's 107-123 loss to the Hawks, as Atlanta went 20 of 31 (64.5%) from deep. They give those Nets the same looks and Brooklyn could easily score 140+

The key here is I think the Nets aren't going to be all that locked in defensively. They got a lot of new pieces and it's going to take some time before they are a cohesive defensive unit. New Orleans is also a very strong offensive team. Give me the OVER 231! 

50* (NBA) - Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Over 225.5) 

I love the OVER 225.5 in tonight's NBA matchup between the Pelicans and Hawks. I think we are getting a discount on the total due to the fact that New Orleans could be playing again without Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram. Both are listed as questionable, but there's been no indication that they will play. If they do that's great, but I don't think they need them to eclipse this number. 

In the Pelicans last 4 games they have combined for 124 with the Celtics, 125 with the Magic, 129 with these same Hawks and 137 in their last game with the Rockets. Going back even further, NO has seen a combined score of at least 120 in 7 of their last 8. 

Add that with how the Hawks have been playing and this is a no-brainer. In Atlanta's last 5 games they are scoring 117.8 ppg on 49% shooting and giving up 117.2 ppg on 48% shooting. Give me the OVER 225.5! 

50* (NBA) - Friday *MAX UNIT* Top Play (UNDER 224) 

I absolutely love the UNDER 224 in Friday's game between the Pelicans and Hawks. I just don't see these two coming anywhere close to this total given the circumstances. 

For Atlanta, they will be in the 2nd game of a back-to-back after a grueling 134-129 OT win at San Antonio last night. A game in which 4 different Hawks' players logged 35 or more minutes. On top of that, this is Atlanta's 8th and final game of a brutal 8-game road trip. 

As for the Pelicans, they might be extremely short-handed here, as Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram and Lonza Ball are all questionable. Given that the line for this game is right around a pick'em that tells me there's a good chance at least two of these guys aren't suiting up and maybe all 3. Give me the UNDER 224! 

50* BLAZERS/WOLVES NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Over 233.5) 

I really considered take the Timberwolves as a home dog here, but I think the real value in this game is the OVER 233.5. Minnesota looked like a different team out of the break, as they went on the road and crushed the Pelicans 135-105. Timberwolves shot 53.7% from the field in that game and while some of that was New Orleans subpar defense, it's not like the Blazers are a good defensive team. Portland just allowed the Suns to shoot 59% from the field in a crushing 121-127 loss at home on Thursday. 

I think there's a good chance that Minnesota carries over that strong offensive showing and I definitely don't trust this Timberwolves defense to slow down a potent Blazers offense. This is one of those games where it feels like both teams could easily get into the 120s and it wouldn't shock me if it got way up there with both in the 230s. Give me the OVER 233.5! 

50* MAGIC/NETS NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Over 228) 

If you have been following my NBA picks this year, you knew that the OVER in tonight's Brooklyn/Orland game was going to be on the board. I just don't know the books can make the numbers high enough for these Nets games.

I definitely will be a little more cautious with the OVER going forward when Brooklyn plays a top tier team, as we did just see the UNDER cash in their two games with the Lakers and Clippers, but no way am I not taking the OVER when they are playing a sub-par team like Orlando. 

The Nets are so good offensively, even without Durant, that they know they don't have to play all that hard on the defensive end to win games. I definitely don't see them being interested in giving that extra effort against the Magic and it's not like we need 240 in this one, we just need to get to 230. These two combined for 137 in a recent meeting on Jan. 16 and that was with them only reaching 102 at the half. Give me the OVER 228! 

50* HORNETS/JAZZ NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Over 229) 

I love the OVER 229 in today's game between the Jazz and Hornets. These two teams played earlier this month (Feb. 5) and combined for a ridiculous 259 points as the Jazz won 138-121 on the road. Now I'm not expecting them to approach to 260 again, but I don't think getting to 230 is asking a lot. I wouldn't be shocked at all if Utah score 130 on their own in this one. 

The big key here being how good a 3-point shooting team Utah is and how bad the Hornets are at defending it. Jazz are shooting 39% and averaging 16 made 3-pointers on the season. Charlotte is allowing opponents to shoot 40% from deep with an average of 16 made 3-pointers on the road. 

The other thing here is because the Jazz figure to have such an easy time scoring, are fresh off two grueling games against the Clippers and have a big home game on deck against LeBron and the Lakers, I don't see them really investing a lot of energy on defense in this one. Give me the OVER 229! 

50* BULLS/76ERS NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Over 230.5)

I really like the OVER 230.5 in tonight's game between the Bulls and 76ers. The OVER had cashed in 3 straight games for Chicago before Wednesday's low-scoring game with Detroit, where both teams had an awful quarter that kept it UNDER. With the way Chicago can score and their limitations on defense, this is team that should be in a lot of high-scoring games. 

I definitely think that's the case here. The 76ers are really clicking on offense. Philadelphia has scored at least 111 points in 6 straight and 9 of 10 overall. They also have allowed 110 or more in 8 of their last 9. With the uptempo style the Bulls like to play and their lack of defense, I could see this flying past the number here. Give me the OVER 230.5! 

50* PISTONS/BULLS NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Over 220)

I love the value here with the OVER 220 in Wednesday's game between the Bulls and Pistons. This is a late addition to the slate, as the league threw this game together last minute after both teams had their original schedule opponents unavailable to play. 

I believe it's going to lead to a more high-scoring game than what me night normally see between these two division rivals. Detroit went from suppose to playing the Spurs at home last night and the Mavs in Dallas tonight to traveling to Chicago. I just don't see them being locked in, especially on the defensive side of the ball. 

Chicago is scoring 114.8 ppg over their last 5 games and really matchup well here. Bulls are a great 3-point shooting team, hitting 38.3% as a team and will be facing a Detroit defense that is allowing opponents to shoot 39% from deep. 

As for the Bulls defense, it's one of the worst in the league. Chicago is giving up 116.0 ppg on 48% shooting. Pistons aren't known for their offense and are only averaging 108.9 ppg on the season, but are averaging 115.4 ppg in their last 5. A stretch that has seen them eclipse 120 on 3 different occasions. If either team hits 120 (both are more than capable) this should fly past the mark. Give me the OVER 220! 

50* WIZARDS/ROCKETS NON-CONF TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Under 228.5)

I love the value here with the UNDER 228.5 in Monday's NBA matchup between the Rockets and Wizards. A lot of people just see the fact that Washington is giving up 119.1 ppg and just immediately look to play the OVER. 

Thing is the Wizards have had a bit of bad luck on the defensive end this year. They advanced stats suggest they should be allowing a lot less than they have been and those stats are starting to show as the UNDER has hit in 6 of the last 7 games for the Wizards. 

Not only is it their defense, but it's also their struggles offensively, as Washington has shot 42% or worse from the field in 6 of 7. Houston is in a major offensive funk right now as well, as they are really missing Christian Wood and will also be without Oladipo. Rockets have shot 43% or worse in 5 straight and are scoring just 98.8 ppg during this stretch. Give me the UNDER 228.5! 

50* SPURS/HORNETS NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Over 228.5) 

I love the OVER 228.5 in Sunday's matchup between San Antonio and Charlotte. I see these two teams easily getting to 230 points. That's basically been every game here of late for the Hornets. In Charlotte's last 5 games they are scoring 118.6 ppg and giving up 114.6 ppg. 

Spurs aren't exactly viewed as a great offensive team, but they are quietly averaging 110.7 ppg and that jumps up to 113.2 ppg on the road. In their last road game at Atlanta on Friday they scored 125 points on 53% shooting and were better than that as they had 110 points thru 3 quarters before throwing in the scrubs in the 4th. 

Spurs are also not a great defensive team. They are giving up 111.5 ppg on 47% shooting from the field and 39% from behind the 3-point line on the season. That poor 3-point defense figures to be a major problem against the Hornets. Charlotte is averaging 14 made 3's and shooting 38% from deep on the season. Give me the OVER 228.5! 

50* KNICKS/WIZARDS NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Under 218.5) 

I really like the UNDER 218.5 in Friday's slate between the Knicks and Wizards. Washington's defensive numbers don't look great, as they are giving up 120.9 ppg on the season and 126.4 ppg at home. I'm not saying this is a great defensive team, but the advance stats strongly suggest they are a better defensive team than what it shows. Teams have just shot lights out against them. 

That's where the Knicks come into play. New York is one of the few, if not the only, team that wants to win games strictly on their defense. New York is only scoring 101.7 ppg on the road this season. 101.7 ppg would be decent 10 years ago. It's awful in this day an age. With Bradley Beal sitting out this game for rest, the Knicks should be able to turn this into more of a half-court game and keep it well below the number. Give me the UNDER 218.5! 

50* RAPTORS/WIZARDS NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (OVER 232)

I love the OVER 232 in today's game between the Raptors and Wizards. Washington has seen the UNDER cash in 4 straight, but all of those were on the road and against some subpar offensive teams in the Heat (twice), Hornets and Bulls. Prior to this recent stretch the OVER had cashed in 11 of 16 games involving the Wizards. OVER is also a dominant 7-2 in the 9 home games Washington has played. Not a big surprise that the Wizards are an OVER team at home. They play at one of the fastest tempos in the league, are scoring 121.3 ppg at home and giving up 125.2 ppg. 

As for the Raptors, they are red-hot offensively right now. Toronto is averaging 122.0 ppg over their last 5 and are scoring 116.5 and giving up 115.7 ppg on the road this season. OVER has cashed in each of the Raptors last 6 games and is 9-4 in their 13 road games. Give me the OVER 232! 

50* NETS/PISTONS NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (OVER 230)

I love the OVER between Brooklyn and Detroit tonight. Even with Kevin Durant sidelined, the Nets are still an offensive juggernaut with Irving and Harden. Those two can more than carry the load and I expect both to be on point here to make sure the Nets don't lose a 3rd straight game. 

Thing is those two are also a big liability on the defensive side of the ball and we have seen the Nets consistently give up a ton of points to bad offensive teams like Detroit. Brooklyn has allowed 120 or more points in 10 of their last 11 games. There's a good chance both teams hit 120 points in this game. The total here should be closer to 240. Give me the OVER 230! 

50* ROCKETS/THUNDER NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (OVER 222.5) 

I love the OVER 222.5 in Monday's matchup between the Thunder and Rockets. I really think this Rockets team is better than they get credit for and could end up being quite the juggernaut offensively. They come into this game off 126 point outburst in a 14-point win at New Orleans and I look for the offense to have another big game on the road against OKC tonight. 

Thunder just gave up 147 points in regulation to the Nets and have allowed 112 or more in 8 of their last 10 games. OVER is 6-2 in OKC's last 8 games and in their last 5 they are scoring 111.6 ppg and giving up 118.8 ppg. They also are allowing a staggering 121.9 ppg at home this season. I just think the total here should be closer to 230. Give me the OVER 222.5!  

50* PELICANS/RAPTORS NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Over 228.5) 

I will gladly take the OVER 228.5 in Wednesday's NBA season opener between the Pelicans and Raptors. I feel like these are going to be two of the highest scoring teams in the league this year. Toronto is a team that shot and made a lot of 3's last year and from the looks of it will be shooting it even more. That's pretty evident with them replacing their two big men of Ibaka and Gasol with Aron Baynes. They were jacking up 40+ 3's in the preseason. 

As for the Pelicans, the minutes restrictions are off for Zion and this team is built to get up and down the floor with all their youth and athleticism. They also got plenty of guys who shoot from deep. I look for Zion to feast against the small-ball Raptors lineup and for this game to fly past the total. Give me the OVER 228.5! 

50* WARRIORS/NETS NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Over 231.5) 

I think we are going to see the Warriors and Nets fly past the total of 231.5 tonight. Golden State won't have Draymond Green for this game and lost Klay Thompson for the year. The loss of Thompson is big, but his absence will be more felt on defense than offense. I don't see the offense having any trouble to score with the trio of Steph Curry, Andrew Wiggins and Kelly Oubre Jr. These 3 are going to shoot and make a ton of 3-pointers this year. 

As for the Nets, we finally get to see the dynamic duo of Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving. These are two of the most skilled offensive players in the league. While Durant is a solid defender, Irving is a major liability on that side of the ball. 

You also have to factor in all the new pieces both teams are working in compared to last year. The lack of chemistry usually impacts the defense a lot more than the offense. I wouldn't be surprised if both teams scored 120+ points. Give me the OVER 231.5! 

50* CELTICS/HEAT NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Under 213.5)

As much as I want to fire back on the Heat at +3.5 after cashing on them in Game 4, I'm going to take the UNDER 213.5. Game 4 ended up going over the total by 9 points, but the OVER didn't look good for the majority of that game. We got a 35-33 4th quarter (a lot of late scoring). I get it happens, but I don't see Game 5 coming close to this number. 

Miami wants to finish this thing off and the Celtics are facing elimination. We haven't seen a lot of games go OVER the total since the first round completed, especially late in the series like we are here. Give me the UNDER 213.5!  

50* MAVS/CLIPPERS NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Over 234.5)

I wanted to take the points with the Mavs and might have a little side action on them, but I believe the real value in this game is the OVER. These are two of the best offenses the NBA has to offer. Mavs have shot 50% or better from the field in 3 straight games. Luka Doncic has taken his game to another level and this Dallas team is oozing with confidence after winning Game 4 on a buzzer beater. There's just too much star-power and great shooters on the floor. I think this total should be closer 240. Give me the OVER 234.5! 

50* BLAZERS/LAKERS NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Under 225) 

The books keeping dropping the total, but I don't think they have adjusted enough for Game 3. The Lakers/Blazers combined for just 193 points in Game 1, which had a total of 234. They then had just 199 in Game 2 with a total of 227.5

The Lakers defense has completely shut down the Blazers offense. Portland shot a mere 39% in their win in Game 1 and hit only 40% in Game 2. Lakers had a great offensive game and still only had 111 points. LA shot 48% from the field and connected on 14 3-pointers after making only 5 in Game 1. 

I just think we are going to see more of the same from the Lakers defense. With how inconsistent the Lakers shooting has been, they likely regress from their strong Game 2 performance. Give me the UNDER 225! 

50* MAVS/CLIPPERS NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Under 229.5) 

I really like the value here with the UNDER at 229.5 in Game 1 between the Clippers/Mavs. I know Dallas didn't play great defense in their 8-game bubble restart, but you have to keep in mind they really had nothing to play for. They were all but locked into the No. 7 seed in the west. I think the intensity goes up a lot for the Mavs. As for the Clippers, they are a top tier defensive team, but I feel they got another level they can take it to. Play the UNDER 229.5! 

50* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Over 222.5) 

I see a ton of value here with the OVER 222.5. Last time out the Magic played a very low scoring game against the Raptors, which ended at 208 with a total of 222. However, each of their first 3 games had gone over the total. All 3 seeing at least 229 and all 3 the Magic gave up 116 or more. 

While the 76ers won't have Ben Simmons for this game, I think that could play to our advantage. It gets another guy who can hit a 3-ball on the floor. I actually think the loss of Simmons hurts them more on the defensive side and the 76ers defense has stunk in the bubble so far. I could easily see both teams hitting 120 in this one. Give me the OVER 222.5! 

50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 225) 

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER in Monday's NBA action that has the Raptors visiting the Jazz. I just don't see either team looking to push the pace all that much in this one. Toronto is playing their 5th straight on the road in about as bad a spot as you can get, playing in Utah on no rest after a game last night in Sacramento. As for the Jazz, they had Sunday off, but had to play back-to-back on the road Friday/Saturday to close out a 4-game east coast trip. Another thing here is Utah has won 5 straight and will be highly motivated for revenge from a 20-point loss at Toronto earlier this season, where they gave up 77 in the 1st half to the Raptors. 

UNDER is 15-5 in Utah's last 20 home games when they are on a win streak of 4 or more and 6- 1 in their last 7 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Take the UNDER! 

50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 222) 

I'll take my chances here with the OVER 222 in Sunday's NBA action that has the Spurs hosting visiting the Cavs. We see totals in the 230's on the reg in the NBA now a days and I just feel with how bad these two are playing defensively this should be closer to 230 than 220. Cleveland has allowed 4 of their last 5 opponents to shoot 54% or better from the field. San Antonio has allowed each of their last 4 to shoot 47% or better, including 53% last time out at Brooklyn. Cavs give up 115 ppg at home and Spurs allow 117 ppg on the road. Give me the OVER 222! 

50* NBA NON-CONF TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Over 230.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the OVER in Monday's matchup that has the Rockets visiting the Knicks. These two teams just played on Feb. 24th and combined for 135 points in a 123-112 Rockets win. I think we are going to see even more offense in this one. 

I'm pretty confident Westbrook and Harden will be motivated to show out at Madison Square Garden. They only get to play their once a season. Houston's small ball has them scoring a ton here lately. Only the Celtics have been able to keep them under 120 points since the break. 

As for the Knicks offense, they have been shooting really well. New York has hit 50% from the field in 3 straight games. Coming off a big road game at Boston on Saturday and a huge home game against the Clippers looming on Thursday, plus having just beat the Knicks, I don't see Houston being overly invested on playing defense in this one. Give me the OVER 230.5! 

50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 210)

I'll take my chances here with the OVER 210 between the Hornets and Pacers. I just think we are getting big time value here on the OVER due to how awful these two teams just played offensively in their last game. Charlotte scored just 86 at home to the Nets and Indiana managed just 81 on the road at Toronto. Both teams did allow 115+ in those losses. Pacers score 110 ppg at home and Hornets allow that same number on the season. I think we see Indiana get to 120 and that means we need a mere 91 from Charlotte to cash. Give me the OVER 210! 

50* NBA NON-CONF TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Over 226) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the OVER 226 in Friday's NBA clash that has Boston visiting Minnesota. I think we are getting some value here with the OVER due to a couple big names sitting this out. Kemba Walker won't play for Boston and Karl-Anthony Towns is out for the Wolves. 

Celtics got more than enough offensive fire-power to score a bunch against this awful Minnesota defense. It's going to be a big struggle on that side of the ball for the Wolves with all the new pieces. 

I like the offensive weapons a little more after the moves. Not having Towns is huge, but I also think him not playing really makes it hard for Boston to show up thinking they need to play hard defensively to win this game. Give me the OVER 226! 

50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (UNDER 220) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the UNDER 220 in tonight's matchup that has Toronto hosting Portland. I just think the number here is way too high given the circumstances for both teams. For Toronto they just can't catch a break. Already down Siakam, Powell and Gasol, they are now going to be missing VanVleet. That's a big loss, as he's a big scorer for them right now and also a guy that gets people easy shots. 

Raptors have also slowed the pace way down with all these injuries. Since losing all those guys in that game at Detroit back on 12/18 their pace of play rating is a mere 24th and figures to drop even more without VanVleet. 

Blazers have been in a lot of high-scoring games of late, but this will be their 4th straight game on the road in a span of just 7 days, as they have had to go from New York, to Washington, to Miami to Toronto. They too are decimated with injuries and I think they will be happy slowing things down and playing at Toronto's new slow pace. Give me the UNDER 220! 

50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 223.5)

I'll gladly take my chances here with the OVER 223.5 between the Celtics and Hawks. Atlanta will be getting back their best offensive player in Trae Young and their offensive net rating is 13.9 points higher with him on the floor compared to when he's not. Not to mention he also makes their defense worse. Atlanta just can't defend the pick and roll and Celtics are one of the best in the league at pick and roll offense. 

Other big key here is that because Boston is so much better than Atlanta, this is not a game where they are going to feel the need to lockdown defensively. The proof of that is in recent matchups. OVER has gone 6-2 in the last 8 meetings between these two teams including 4-0 in the last 4 games in Boston. Give me the OVER 223.5! 

50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (OVER 226.5)

I'll gladly take my chances here with the OVER 226.5 in tonight's game that has the Mavericks hosting the Spurs. Dallas should have Doncic back in the lineup and with him they should do whatever they please against a bad Spurs defense that is giving up 116.2 ppg. In fact, both teams could go off here. San Antonio is averaging 120.0 ppg in their last 5 and the Mavs are scoring 117.2 ppg on the season. Both have also brought the offense in division games. Spurs are averaging 121.2 ppg against division opponents and the Mavs are even better at 127.2 ppg. Give me the OVER 226.5! 

50* NBA XMAS DAY VEGAS SHARP TOP PLAY (Under 223) 

My money is on the UNDER 223 in the huge Christmas Day matchup between the Lakers and Clippers. These two teams are so good that their numbers can sometimes be misleading, especially on the defensive end. Because they have so much offensive talent they don't have to bring it defensively on a nightly basis. There's no concern here with them showing up on that side of the ball in this one. These two have played once already and only combined for 114 points and that was with the Clippers shooting 51% from the field and the two combining for 24 made 3-pointers. I just think a slower pace and a little more defensive intensity are going to keep this thing well below the mark. Give me the UNDER 223! 

50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 218.5) 

I'll once again take my chances here with the OVER in a game involving the Grizzlies. We should have cashed the OVER last night with Memphis and Cleveland, but the Grizzlies were a no show in the 4th quarter and Ja Morant was off with just 8 points. I fully expect Morant to bounce back and for this thing to fly past the total. OVER is still 4-1 in the Grizzlies last 5 and each of their last 6 have seen at last 220 points. OVER is also 2-0 since Fox returned for Memphis. Give me the OVER 218.5! 

50* VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (OVER 223)

I'll gladly take my chances here with the OVER 223 between the Grizzlies and Cavs. Memphis' is rolling offensively right now and pushing the pace while they are at it. Grizzlies have scored 110 or more points in 7 straight games. They have also allowed 111 or more in each of their last 4 and are giving up 115.4 ppg on the road. OVER has cashed in each of their last 4 games. 

Cavs aren't the best offensive team, but are scoring 109.6 ppg in their last 5 and should be able to score plenty here at home against a soft Memphis defense. Prior to their last game against Charlotte where the two combined for just 198 points, Cleveland had played 4 straight games with a combined score of 126 or more. Give me the OVER 223! 

50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 218.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the OVER 218.5 in tonight's NBA matchup that has the Grizzlies visiting the Thunder. This is not your Grizzlies from the last decade. Memphis is pushing the pace behind rookie point guard Ja Morant, who has really been playing well. Grizzlies have posted two of their best offensive ratings in their last two games. Memphis loves to get out in transition and that's one area OKC is struggling. Thunder 30th in PPP allowed in transition. On the flip side the Grizzlies are not a good defensive team. They are giving up 114.5 ppg on the road nad while OKC's offense isn't great, they are averaging 112.7 ppg at home. Give me the OVER 218.5! 

50* NBA ATLANTIC DIVISION TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Under 210.5) 

My money is on the UNDER 210.5 in Thursday's big showdown between the Celtics and 76ers. Both of these teams are trying to lay claim as the best team in the east and both are going to bring it. 76ers are not the same offensive team on the road as they are at home, while Boston is likely down one of their top scorers in Hayward. Both teams are also in some tough scheduling spots with not a lot of rest, so the pace should be even slower than it typically would. Give me the UNDER 210.5! 

50* NBA CENTRAL DIVISION TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Over 219)

I'll gladly take my chances with the OVER 219, as I think these two could easily get into the 230's. Chicago might be a bad team, but they got some playmakers on offense and love to push the pace. Bulls have played at a 107.6 pace in their last 5 games, which is the best mark in the league over that span. Chicago loves to attack in transition and the Pistons are one of the worst at defending in transition. Bulls also have a bad defense. Chicago is giving up 111.3 ppg and 115 over their last 5. Detroit is averaging 111.2 ppg over their last 5 and giving up 112 ppg. Give me the OVER 219! 

50* NBA LATE NIGHT TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Over 232.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the OVER 232.5 in tonight's matchup between the Suns and Kings.   A ton of young talent on both of these rosters and one thing young teams struggle with is playing defense, especially in games that don't matter this early in the season. Not to mention, these two were playing at two of the fastest paces in the preseason, so the tempo is going to be ideal for a high-scoring game. BET THE OVER 232.5! 

50* NBA OPENING NIGHT MAX BET WINNER  (Over 231) 

You can't read a ton from preseason games, but one thing I like to look at is pace. Both these teams ranked in the Top 5 in pace of play this preseason. I think without Kawhi the Raptors will be looking to push the pace a lot more, as they need those easy buckets in transition. As for the Pelicans, they are a young group of kids that want to fly up and down the floor. No Zion no problem, there's a lot more talent than him on this team. They got a lot of guys who can shoot the 3. I got both teams reaching 120 in this one. BET THE OVER 231! 

50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 216) 

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER  in Game 4 of the NBA Finals. I know we just saw these two fly past the total in Game 3, but that was simply a result of the Warriors not bringing the energy on the defensive side of the ball. Raptors were getting way too many layups, which in turn upped their confidence and I believe led to them going 17-38 (44%) from deep. They were +5 on 3-pointers over the Warriors. They were just 11-38 (29%) in Game 2, so we should expect to see regression from Game 3. Golden State can't go down 3-1 with 2 of the next 3 in Toronto. They have to win, which means max effort defensively. I think the same applies for the Raptors. If they are serious about dethroning the champs they need to win this game with Durant out and Thompson at less than 100%. Give me the UNDER! 

50* RAPTORS/WARRIORS GAME 3 SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 213.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the UNDER in Game 3. It took an unthinkable scoring drought at the end of Game 2 for that to stay UNDER the total. I think that has a lot of people going back to the OVER in Game 3. Not me. Durant has already been ruled out and I think there's a decent chance that Klay Thompson doesn't play or plays at way less than 100%. We saw how hard it was for the Warriors to score once Thompson went out and I think the effort is going to be there for Toronto, especially on the defensive end. I could easily see both teams not getting to 100 points. Give me the UNDER 213.5! 

50* BUCKS/RAPTORS GAME 6 SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 212.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER in Game 6. We cashed in an easy winner on the UNDER in Game 5 and I think we are going to see a very similar type of game tonight. I could actually see it being even more low scoring. Raptors defense has been great all playoffs and Milwaukee has no choice but to give everything they got on that side of the ball facing elimination. Easily see both teams fail to get to 100 points. Give me the UNDER 212.5! 

50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 216.5) 

I'll take my chances with the UNDER in Game 5 of the Raptors/Bucks series. The last 3 in the series have gone OVER the total, but two of those were results of blowouts and the other is a game that went to double-overtime. I just think with the thing tied 2-2 and how good these two teams are defensively, we are going to see this thing stay well below the number here. I wouldn't be shocked at all if both teams failed to reach 100 points. Give me the UNDER 216.5! 

50* BUCKS/RAPTORS GAME 4 VEGAS TOP PLAY (Under 217.5) 

I'll take my chances with the UNDER in Game 4. Each of the last two in the series have gone OVER the total, but Game 3 going over was a joke. It was 96-96 at the end of regulation, which is a total of 192. The two teams proceeded to score 38 more points in two overtime periods to finish with 230. As much as people want to focus on the offensive stars, these are two elite defensive teams and this game is massive, as we either have the Bucks go up 3-1 or Toronto tie it up at 2-2. Both teams are going to bring it tonight. Give me the UNDER 217.5! 

50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 209.5)

I'll take my chances here with the Raptors and 76ers staying UNDER the total in Game 7. I honestly don't think either team is going to reach 100 points. Keep in mind that in the first 3 games played in Toronto, Philadelphia has managed to score just 95, 94 and 89 points. The 76ers defense has been hit or miss, but we know we are getting a max effort in a winner take all scenario. Give me the UNDER 209.5! 

50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 214.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER in Game 4 on Sunday. These two have stayed UNDER the total in each of the first 3 games of the series and the UNDER is 7-1 in Toronto's 8 playoff games and 6-2 in the 76ers 8 games. Philadelphia seems to have figured out this Raptors offense and it just got easier with Siakam unlikely to play. As for Toronto's defense, the energy wasn't where it needed to be in Game 3. I'm pretty confident the intensity will be there as they try to avoid going down 3-1 and tie this thing up at 2-2 going back to Toronto. Give me the UNDER 214.5! 

50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 221)

I'll gladly take my chances with the UNDER 221 in Game 2 between the 76ers and Raptors. These two teams combined for just 203 points in Game 1, which closed with a total of 223. The game stayed under the mark by 20-points, even with the two teams combining for 70 points in the 1st quarter (280 pace). The most points the Raptors have allowed in the postseason so far is 104 and that was Game 1 of the first round against the Magic. Since then they have gone 5 straight not allowing more than 96. I expect more of the same with a much better effort on the defensive side from Philly. Give me the UNDER 221! 

50* NBA NON-CONF TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Over 219) 

I'll take my chances here with the OVER 219 in Monday's NBA action between the Jazz and Hornets. Charlotte is playing a lot of young guys and are getting abused on the defensive side of the floor here of late. Hornets just let the Warriors shoot 60% from the field for the game and have allowed 56% or worse in 3 of their last 4. Utah is known for their defense, but have scored 110 or more in 10 straight. I think this easily eclipses 220. Give me the OVER 219! 

50* NBA NON-CONF TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Over 218) 

I'll gladly take my chances here in this bottom-feeder showdown between the Suns and Cavs. I just don't see a whole lot of defense being played in this one. These are two awful teams that really are better off losing than winning right now. There's just no motivation for either side to be 100% locked in on the defensive side. 

Not that these two teams could play quality defense if they wanted to. Phoenix has allowed at least 116 points in 13 straight games. I know the Cavs aren't a great offensive team, but they are a lot better now that Kevin Love is back in the lineup. Cleveland gives up 113 points/game and Suns have only failed to reach 100 points once in their last 8 games. I think this thing finishes a lot closer to 230 than 220. Give me the OVER 218! 

50* NBA EASTERN CONF TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Over 227) 

I'll take my chances here with the OVER in Monday's Central Division clash between the Bulls and Bucks. OVER is perfect 4-0 in Chicago's last 4 and they are playing ideal basketball for the OVER to cash. Bulls are shooting lights out, hitting 50% or better in 6 straight and are playing little to no defense in the process. Don't be fooled by Milwaukee's 83-points last time out with the Greek Freak sidelined. This team will have no problem scoring 120+ here against the Bulls. I'm confident Chicago adds enough to push this well past the mark. Give me the OVER 227! 

50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 234) 

I'll take my chances with the Lakers and 76ers going OVER the mark of 234. I just think there's too much offensive fire-power in this one. Not to mention teams just don't play real hard defensively in the weeks leading up to the All-Star break. Not only are players looking ahead to the break, but they are starting to wear down. Lakers last two games have saw them give up 136 to the Pacers and 128 to the Celtics. They have allowed 120 or more points in 8 of their last 10 games. 76ers have allowed 110 or more in 5 of their last 7 and have scored at least 106 in every game they have played since the calendar turned to 2019. Give me the OVER! 

50* NBA WESTERN CONF TOTAL OF THE MONTH (UNDER 224) 

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER in Thursday's TNT clash between the Spurs and Thunder. This just feels like way too many points given how well both of these teams are playing on the defensive side of the ball. San Antonio has been playing great defense for over a month now and OKC has held each of their last 5 opponents under 44% from the field. Spurs are playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back and Thunder are running on fumes as well, which will keep the pace down. While these two haven't played yet this season, 6 of the last 7 meetings have gone UNDER the total. Give me the UNDER 224! 

50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 222.5)

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER. There's always a ton of value with the UNDER in these Christmas Day games, as this isn't just another regular-season game. Players consider it an honor to play on Christmas and more times than not we see playoff-like intensity. There's no doubt we get that level of intensity from these two division rivals. I think we could see both teams struggle to simply get to 100 points. Give me the UNDER 222.5! 

50* NBA CENTRAL TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Under 218.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with these two Central Division rivals going UNDER the mark set by the books. The UNDER has cashed in 7 straight games involving the Pacers and is 4-0 in the Bucks last 4 as well. A big reason for that is both teams are getting it done on the defensive end. Milwaukee is allowing just 104.8 ppg over their last 5 and Indiana is only giving up 97.8 ppg. Both teams are holding opponents under 43% shooting in their last 5. Bucks won by 17 at home way back on Oct. 19, but the UNDER is 10-1 in the Pacers last 11 when revenging a road loss of 10 or more points. Give me the UNDER 218.5! 

50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (OVER 216) 

I'll take my chances here with the OVER 216 in tonight's NBA action that has the Rockets visiting the Jazz. Utah is coming off a game where they set a new franchise record with 20 made 3-pointers and shot 61% from the field on their way to putting up a 139 points against the Spurs. Houston's defense has been slipping of late, but the offense has also picked up and I just don't think it's asking a lot for these two to hit at least 220. OVER is 28-15 in Utah's last 43 off a win by 15 or more and 8-1 in their 9 home games this season. Give me the OVER 216! 

50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 219)

I'll gladly take my chances here with the Kings and Grizzlies combining for at least 220 points. I think we are getting value here with Memphis coming off a dreadfully low-scoring game in their 92-84 win at Utah. Kings have combined for at least 238 points in all 4 games and have shot at least 50% from the field in every game. They are playing in the 2nd of a back-to-back, but this is a very young team and it's really early in the season, so I don't think it will effect their play at all. Opposing teams are shooting 51.5% against Sacramento, so Memphis will have no trouble getting their offense going. Give me the OVER 219! 

50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 227.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the OVER 227.5 in Tuesday's NBA action between the Kings and Nuggets. Denver has held each of their first 3 opponents under 100 points, which I believe is keeping this total much lower than it should be. I don't see the defensive effort being there for the Nuggets in a big time sandwich game. Denver is off a home win against the Warriors and have LeBron and the Lakers on deck Thursday night on TNT. Not to mention the Kings are the perfect team to back for the OVER. Sacramento is playing at the fastest pace in the league and are one of the worst in the league in defensive efficiency. Give me the OVER 227.5! 

50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 212.5) 

As you can tell by the spread, the books aren't expecting a close game in Game 6, as the Warriors are laying close to 13-points at home. While I wouldn't be shocked if Golden State covered the big spread, given they are facing elimination and the Rockets are without a key piece in Chris Paul, I think the real value is with the total. After combining for just 187 points in Game 4 and 192 in Game 5, we have seen the total drop almost 15 points from Game 4 to Game 6. I just think Houston is looking more ahead to Game 7 at home and won't be as good defensively here, especially with Paul sidelined. Golden State is also due for an offensive explosion and I think we see them get to around 220 with Houston doing more than enough to push it over the mark here. Give me the OVER 212.5

50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 206.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the Celtics and Cavs staying UNDER the mark of 206.5 set by the books. These two teams combined for 113 points in Game 4 to go OVER the total for the first time in the series. Most will just assume this will be another high-scoring game, but the first two games in Boston suggest otherwise. The Celtics were a completely different team defensive in Games 1 and 2 at home, holding the Cavs to 83 and 94 points respectively. I think Cleveland once again has trouble to score away from home. I also think with how big this game is that we get another big effort from the Cavs on the defensive end to keep Boston from going off. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if we saw both teams fail to reach 100 points. Give me the UNDER 206.5! 

50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (UNDER 195.5) 

I'll take my chances with Game 7 between the Celtics and Bucks finishing UNDER the mark set by the books. This series has really shifted to a defensive battle. After combining for at least 206 in each of the first 4, they scored just 179 in Game 5 and 183 in Game 6. The Bucks have held the Celtics to 42% or worse from the field in each of the last 4 games and Boston held Milwaukee to a mere 87 points on 37% shooting last time these two played at the Garden. With this being a winner-take-all scenario, I think the pressure and defensive intensity from both sides will have this game finishing in the 180's. Take the UNDER 195.5! 

50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (OVER 223.5) 

My money is on the Bucks and Nuggets going OVER the total set here by the books. Milwaukee has seen the OVER go 10-1 in their last 11 games, as they continue to light it up on the offensive side and struggle to defend on the defensive side. The Bucks have scored 115 or more points in 9 of their last 11 games and have allowed 100+ in all 11. The Nuggets are in a similar boat, as the OVER is 4-1-1 in their last 6. During this 6-game stretch Denver is averaging 120.7 ppg and allowing 118.8 ppg for an average combined score just under 240. Give me the OVER 223.5! 

50* NBA WESTERN CONF TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Under 197)

My money is on the UNDER in this one, as we have the Jazz hosting the Grizzlies. Memphis comes in off back-to-back upset wins over the Timberwolves and Blazers and their defense played a big part in both of those wins. The Grizzlies held Minnesota to just 93 points on the road and followed that up by allowing just 103 to Portland. Those are two of the better offensive teams in the league. While the defense has been much better of late, the offense is still a mess. Memphis is averaging just 97.2 ppg over their last 5 games, a stretch in which they have also shot just 43.4% from the field. Utah is an elite defensive team, especially at home, where they are giving up just 96.9 ppg and holding teams to just 43.5% shooting. Coming off an upset loss at home to a short-handed Boston team and the Jazz far from safe in the west playoff race (currently 8th), I think we get a big effort here from the Jazz and this game stays well below the mark set by the books. Give me the UNDER 197! 

50* NBA NON-CONF TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Under 194.5) 

My money is on Wednesday's NBA action between the Celtics and Jazz going UNDER the mark set by the books. Boston has been hit hard with injuries. They are without both Kryie Irving and Marcus Smart and aren't expected to have Marcus Morris for this game against the Jazz. Morris has been one of the Celtics best scorers with Irving out, as he leads the team with 18.3 ppg in the month of March. I just have a hard time seeing Boston being to get much of anything going offensively on the road against the Jazz, who are one of the league's best defensive teams, especially at home, where they are allowing just 96.9 ppg and holding opponents to 43.5% shooting. While The Celtics offense figures to struggle, I expect them to play hard defensively, which has been a staple of this team under Stevens. I don't see either team reaching the century mark in this one. Give me the UNDER 194.5! 

50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (UNDER 221.5) 

I'll take my chances with the Knicks/Hornets going UNDER the mark set here by the books. Charlotte is averaging 109.6 ppg over their last 5, but that's a bit misleading, as they had a 140 points in 1 game against the Grizzlies. That's the only one of the five that went OVER the total. The UNDER is 4-0-1 in the Knicks last 5. With New York playing well and the Hornets fighting for their playoff lives, I look for a much lower-scoring game than what the books are expecting with this number in the 220s. Give me the UNDER 221.5! 

50* NBA NON-CONF TOTAL OF THE MONTH (OVER 226.5)

My money is on the Warriors and Wizards flying over the total tonight. Washington continues to surprise people with how well they are playing without All-Star point guard John Wall. They just won on the road last night 107-104 at Milwaukee. It was the 14th straight game that the Wizards eclipsed the 100-point mark. The Warriors haven't scored fewer than 112 points in 7 straight games. A stretch where the OVER has gone 5-2. Golden State continues to play at a frantic pace and with the Wizards in the 2nd game of a back-to-back, they should dictate the tempo here and I believe that will have this one in the 230s and maybe even the 240s. Give me the OVER 226.5! 

50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 214) 

These are two teams that can play at an elite level when they are locked in, but both have had their struggles with consistency and playing with that same energy against sub-par teams. I think we get a big time effort here from both sides, as their's a lot of star power and the game will be televised nationally on TNT. Washington averages 106.5 ppg on the season, but just 102.6 on the road, where they only shoot 44%. OKC only gives up 100.0 ppg at home and outside of that 148-point outburst against the Cavs, the offense hasn't been anything special. In fact, they have worse than 43% from the field in 4 of their last 6 games, including a mere 42.6% in their last game at home against the Nets. Give me the UNDER 214! 

50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 206.5)

It doesn't matter when these two teams play each other, the intensity level is going to be very high. It's only going to be that much more intense with this being a nationally televised game on Christmas Day, which is also the first time these two teams have played since they went to a Game 7 in last year's playoffs. The Celtics are only giving up 98.2 ppg and can be elite on that side when they are locked in, which I have to believe they will be today. Washington is also a better defensive team than they get credit for. Their biggest problem is not showing up to play against bad teams. They lost that Game 7 last year and are going to give it everything they have here. Give me the UNDER 206.5! 

50* NBA EASTERN CONF TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Over 214) 

I've been on the Bulls a lot here of late (6x during their current 8-game ATS winning streak). I strongly considered taking them here as a double-digit dog, but I wouldn't be shocked if they struggled to keep this one competitive. A lot of their success of late has come against either bad teams or teams missing key players. They are also playing on no rest after playing last night and are catching the Cavs off a loss. 

With that said, I see a ton of value here in tonight's total. Cleveland is averaging 111.2 ppg and while the Bulls have been decent defensively during their run, again it's been a favorable stretch of opponents. I think we could see the Cavs put up 120+ here and that should be more than enough to push this well over the mark. Note the Bulls are giving up 110.5 ppg on the road on the season. The other key here is Chicago's offense is playing at a completely different level than they were to start the year. Dunn is a major factor and they have some legit 3-point shooting with Mirotic and Portis healthy. Bulls have averaged 111 ppg over their last 5, while shooting 48% from the field. I see a shootout in Cleveland tonight. Give me the OVER 214! 

50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MOMEY TOP PLAY (Under 210.5) 

The Lakers come into this game having scored 107 or more in each of their last 4 games, but only one of those came on the road and that was against a Blazers team that was playing on no rest after a grueling overtime loss the night before against the Jazz. Speaking of Utah, that's the best defense the Lakers have faced away from home and they managed just 81 points in a game that featured just 177 combined points. 

Boston allowed 107 in their last game at Atlanta, but that was a major letdown spot with the Celtics playing on no rest and the Hawks being one of the worst teams in the league. Prior to that Boston had held 8 straight teams to 94 or fewer points and that includes the likes of the Bucks, 76ers, Spurs and Thunder. Lakers aren't a great team, but teams are gearing up to play them because of all the Lonzo Ball drama with his dad running his mouth.

I look for the Celtics to really come out looking to make a statement here against LA. At the same time, I think the Lakers will bring the defensive intensity here and they are better on that side than people think, as they have held 5 of their last 7 opponents to 102 or fewer points. Give me the UNDER 210.5!