|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|01-22-23||Bengals v. Bills -5.5||27-10||Loss||-110||6 h 49 m||Show|
9* Bengals/Bills Div RD ATS ANNIHILATOR
PLAY ON BUFFALO BILLS -5.5: I got to take Buffalo laying less than a touchdown at home against the Bengals on Sunday. As much respect as I have for Joe Burrow and this Bengals team, I just think the injuries up front on the offensive line are going to be too much to overcome.
In the last month Cincinnati has lost 3 starters up front. They lost starting right tackle La'el Collins, starting left tackle Jonah Williams and starting right guard Alex Cappa. I know the Ravens defense was one of the best in the NFL, but Cincinnati's offense was able to manage just 234 total yards in their win 24-17 win over Baltimore. Bills are down a few guys on defense, but should still have their way up front with the patch work offensive line of the Bengals.
On the flip side of this, I think Josh Allen and the Bills offense is back to what we saw early in the year. There was a stretch where Allen just wasn't 100% as he dealt with an elbow injury. That seems to have healed just in time. It won't be as easy as it was last week against the Dolphins bad defense, but I trust Buffalo a lot more to put points on the board. Give me the Bills -5.5!
|01-21-23||Jaguars v. Chiefs -9||20-27||Loss||-110||6 h 12 m||Show|
9* Jaguars/Chiefs AFC Div Rd NO-BRAINER
PLAY CHIEFS -9: Should have jumped on this one earlier at a better price, but how do we not bet the Chiefs in this game. I hear a lot of people picking the Jags as their favorite upset play of the week. The lack of respect people have with Mahomes and this team is laughable. Jacksonville isn't going into Kansas City in January and making a game of it.
When these two teams played in the regular season, the Chiefs won that game 27-17 with a 486 to 315 edge in total yards. KC won that game by double-digits, despite being -3 in the turnover department. Most teams lose by double-digits with that kind of a turnover margin.
Not that the Chiefs didn't try in the regular-season, but I do think there's another level they can take their game to in the playoffs. This team has been here before. Jags haven't. I don't think Jacksonville is ready for this stage. Not against Mahomes at Arrowhead. Lawrence may not have intended to piss off Chiefs Kingdom, but him saying the Jags fans are on the same level as them was a mistake.
I don't think Jacksonville will is going to be up to the challenge on either side of the ball. It's a big number and why it's not a bigger play, but my money is on KC to roll on Saturday. Give me the Chiefs -9!
|01-15-23||Ravens +8.5 v. Bengals||Top||17-24||Win||100||10 h 0 m||Show|
10* NFL Wild Card Sunday VEGAS INSIDER: Baltimore Ravens +8.5
I'll take my chances with Baltimore as a 8.5-point dog against the Bengals on Wild Card Sunday. Yes, Cincinnati just beat the Ravens 27-16 at home in Week 18 to lock up the AFC North title. It never really felt like it was that close, as the Bengals jumped out to a 17-0 lead and led 24-7 at the half.
Most are going to just assume Cincinnati is going to roll again at home against these Ravens. I'm not as convinced. Not enough is being made about Baltimore's defense and the job it did against this Bengals offense. Cincinnati was only able to put up 257 total yards. Baltimore had 386 total yards averaging 5.1 yards/play to the Bengals 4.0.
Ravens rested two of their biggest offensive weapons in running back J.K. Dobbins and tight end Mark Andrews. They also were down to 3rd string rookie quarterback Anthony Brown. While Brown is expected to see some action in this one, 2nd string quarterback Tyler Huntley is expected to play.
It feels like no one is giving this Ravens team any chance of winning this game. I just think that's a big mistake with how well this Baltimore defense is playing. If they can get the run game going with Dobbins, they got a legit shot to pull off the upset. Either way, I think they keep this to a 1-score game. Give me the Ravens +8.5!
|01-14-23||Chargers -2 v. Jaguars||Top||30-31||Loss||-110||11 h 40 m||Show|
10* NFL Wild Card Saturday VEGAS INSIDER: Chargers -2
I'll take my chances with the Chargers as a 2-point road favorite against the Jaguars in Saturday's AFC Wild Card matchup. You got to tip your hat to Jacksonville for turning their season around, but the only reason this team is in the playoffs is because they won a bad division (AFC South). They also benefited from an extremely easy schedule down the stretch. In their 5 game winning streak to end the year, they played the Titans twice, Cowboys at home, Jets and the Texans. The win over Dallas was impressive, but they also had to come from way behind to win that game. Justin Herbert should be able to exploit a bad Jaguars secondary. At the same time, I don't see the Jacksonville offense doing a whole lot. Give me the Chargers -2!
|01-08-23||Patriots +7.5 v. Bills||23-35||Loss||-110||74 h 12 m||Show|
9* NFL Situational ATS NO-BRAINER: Patriots +7.5
I'm going to take the New England Patriots as a 7.5-point road dog against the Buffalo Bills on Sunday. It's extremely unfortunate what happened to Bills' safety Damar Hamlin on Monday Night Football against the Bengals. I want nothing but the best for that kid and for him to make a full recovery. With that said, I just think the emotional toll of that injury is going to make it really hard for Buffalo to come out and give the kind of effort needed to beat the Patriots by more than a touchdown. In fact, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if they lost this game outright.
I know it's not something they probably care a whole lot about, but with that game against Cincinnati being declared a no contest, this game could lose a lot of meaning by kickoff. If Kansas City beats Las Vegas on Saturday, the Chiefs will get the coveted first round bye. There is talk that if Buffalo wins, they may move the AFC Championship Game to a neutral site. That's nice and all, but the week off is what these teams really care about.
On the flip side of this, the Patriots need to win this game to ensure a playoff spot. New England can get in with losses by the Dolphins, Steelers and Titans, which is possible but very unlikely if you ask me.
So on one side you have a team fighting for their playoff lives and the other with very little at stake. Even if KC were to get upset by the Raiders on Saturday, I still would like NE at this price. I know the Bills players are going to say they are ready to play, I just don't think they will be. Give me the Patriots +7.5!
|01-08-23||Jets v. Dolphins -2||Top||6-11||Win||100||66 h 24 m||Show|
10* NFL AFC East PLAY OF THE MONTH: Miami Dolphins -2
I love the Dolphins laying less than a field goal at home against the Jets in Week 18. I get both of these teams have not played great down the stretch. Both come into this game having lost 5 straight. The big difference is, New York's 6-23 loss at Seattle last week ended any hopes they had of making the playoffs. Miami is still alive and very much so. All they need is a win and for Buffalo to defeat the Patriot at home and they are in.
I think the only reason this line isn't pushing a touchdown, is the fact that the Dolphins are down to 3rd string quarterback Skylar Thompson. Can this team win in the playoffs with Thompson as their quarterback? Probably not, but he's facing an unmotivated Jets team that hasn't put up more than 17 points in each of their last 4 games, failing to reach double-digits in each of their last 2 games. He doesn't have to be great and let's not forget who he has to throw the ball to. Having a full week to prepare is also going to help him. I just think the line has been adjusted too much for him being the starter and not enough for the spot. Give me the Dolphins -2!
|01-07-23||Titans +6.5 v. Jaguars||Top||16-20||Win||100||11 h 50 m||Show|
10* NFL Titans/Jags AFC South PLAY OF THE MONTH: Titans +6.5
I love the Titans as a 6.5-point road dog against the Jaguars in Saturday's winner take all for the AFC South title. I know it's technically Week 18, but this 100% going to have the feel of a playoff game. It's asking a lot for the Jags to win by a full touchdown in this spot. This is a young team that hasn't been in this kind of pressure, where Tennessee has a bunch of dudes that have played very meaningful games in January the past few seasons.
I think that people also get lost in the fact that the Titans come in having lost 6 straight and Jacksonville has won their last 4. We kind of knew given Tennessee's injuries that it was going to come down to this game. We saw the Titans rest all their guys last week against Dallas. Jags decided to play their starters in a meaningless game vs the Texans. Tennessee should be the fresher team and more importantly they are as healthy as they have been in a while, especially on defense.
Dobbs isn't great and probably a downgrade from Tannehill, but he's also a massive upgrade over what they were working with in rookie Malik Willis. Not saying Titans will win, but they should at the very least keep this within the number. Give me Tennessee +6.5!
|01-02-23||Utah v. Penn State +2.5||Top||21-35||Win||100||114 h 33 m||Show|
10* NCAAF Rose Bowl VEGAS INSIDER: Penn State Nittany Lions +2.5
I'm going to grab the 2.5-points with Penn State against Utah in Monday's Rose Bowl. Betting against Kyle Whittingham in bowl games isn't exactly something I like to do, but I just feel the wrong team is favored in this matchup.
Penn State might just be the best team that no one is talking about. The Nittany Lions came into this season as an afterthought in the Big Ten East, which was to be expected given their struggles last year and them playing in the same division as Ohio State and Michigan. They started to get some love after a 5-0 start leading up to their showdown against the Wolverines in Ann Arbor. Penn State was only a 6.5-point road dog in that matchup. They then proceeded to get housed in a 17-41 loss to Michigan. Two weeks later they gave Ohio State a scare, but ended up losing by 31-44.
After that loss to the Buckeyes everyone kinda wrote this team off. I think everyone, including myself, thought they would struggle to finish the season strong. Penn State didn't just finish strong, they played their best football of the season down the stretch run. The Nittany Lions won their next 5 games by a little more than 28 ppg. They were a perfect 5-0 ATS in those games. You got to go all the way back to the middle of October to find the last game Penn State failed to cover.
I think them getting matched up against Utah, who won the Pac-12 title, all but guarantees they will be motivated for this game. The only real significant player they have had leave early for the NFL or transfer is corner Joey Porter Jr.
Utah on the other hand has three of their best players sitting out this game. Those being starting running back Tavion Thomas, tight end Dalton Kincaid and corner Clark Phillips. While Thomas did lead the team in rushing with 687 yards, they probably could have made do without him. However, I think the losses of Kincaid and Phillips are huge. Kincaid would have been a matchup nightmare for the Nittany Lions. Without him they can focus all their attention on wideout Dvaughn Vele. As for Phillips, he finished T-3rd in the country with 6 interceptions.
Those guys not playing tells me that this game just isn't all that important to Utah and I think part of them not playing is because this team was in the Rose Bowl last year. I always question the motivation of a team playing in the same bowl game. With all that said, even if all those guys were playing for Utah, I would still like Penn State at this price. Give me the Nittany Lions +2.5!
|01-01-23||Jets -1 v. Seahawks||6-23||Loss||-120||26 h 4 m||Show|
9* NFL No Doubt ATS MASSACRE: New York Jets -1
I'll take my chances with the Jets as a slim 1-point road favorite against the Seahawks. I've played and lost with New York in each of their last two games. The first one I didn't know Mike White wasn't going to be under center. The second was just a bad play on this team with Wilson at quarterback against a surging Jaguars team.
The big reason I'm going right back with New York again this week is the fact that White has been cleared to play and will be back under center. I just think there is zero faith in Wilson with the other guys in the locker room. The entire attitude changes with White under center, as their offense can provide some balance and not just force the defense to do everything. People forget how good this Jets' defense is. They have allowed more than 20 points just once in their last 7 games.
That defense will be facing a Seattle offense that is trending in the wrong direction. Seahawks scored just 10 points last week against a struggling Chiefs defense and 13 the week before against the 49ers. Star rookie running back Kenneth Walker is questionable and will be playing at less than 100% if he suits up. Seattle really needs him to be a difference maker in this game, because you aren't going to make a living trying to attack this Jets defense thru the air. I just don't see their offense doing enough in this one. Give me the Jets -1!
|01-01-23||Browns v. Commanders -2||24-10||Loss||-110||86 h 30 m||Show|
9* NFL Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE: Washington Commanders -2
I'm going to lay the 2-points at home with the Commanders against the Browns. I just don't understand why Cleveland is getting so much respect in this spot. There's zero motivation for the Browns to show up in this game, as they were eliminated from the playoffs with last week's 10-17 loss at home to the Saints. A loss that stings that much more given that Cleveland had a 10-point lead in the game.
It was another dreadful showing by Deshaun Watson and the offense. Watson completed just 15 of 31 attempts for 135 yards, as Cleveland's offense was able to manage to just 249 total yards and a mere 3.7 yards/play. Watson is averaging just 175.8 passing yards and has thrown just two touchdown in 4 starts since returning from his suspension. Browns offense as a whole is averaging just 295 ypg in his 4 starts. The offense hasn't gotten better with Watson. It's gotten a lot worse and I don't see it getting any better against a good Washington defense that just recently got back one of the best defensive players in the NFL in Chase Young.
While Cleveland has absolutely nothing to play for, Washington desperately needs to win this game. The Commanders currently sit in the 7th and final spot in the NFC, but are just a 1/2 game up on Seattle, Detroit and Green Bay.
The big thing that I think is generating the value with Washington and why everyone isn't running to bet on this team, is the uncertainty with the offense given the news that Carson Wentz is going to take back his job. It's a bit of a surprise move, as backup quarterback Taylor Heinicke guided the team to a 5-3-1 record in his 8 starts and Wentz wasn't exactly playing great when he was in control of the offense.
I can't say I love the decision, but I also don't hate it. There's not that much difference between the two and Washington has transformed into a more run heavy offense than what they were earlier in the year with Wentz. Tha run-first attack should work just fine against a Browns defense that has given up 162 ypg on the ground over their last 3 games. I'm also not expecting Cleveland's defense to be all that interested in this game with the playoffs out of reach.
This line to me should be closer than to a touchdown than a pick'em and at the very least the Commanders should be laying at least a field goal. Give me Washington -2!
|12-31-22||TCU v. Michigan -7.5||Top||51-45||Loss||-110||6 h 10 m||Show|
10* NCAAF Fiesta Bowl VEGAS INSIDER: Michigan -7.5
I'll lay the 7.5 with the Wolverines against TCU in the Fiesta Bowl. These playoff semifinal matchups have a history of not being all that competitive and this one to me has blowout written all over it. How many times have we seen a Big 12 team (mainly Oklahoma) get exposed in these playoffs? TCU is lessor version of those Sooner teams.
Everyone wants to focus on their 12-0 start, but this is a team that won a lot of games they shouldn't have. I also think losing K-State in the Big 12 title game only solidifies that this team is a fraud.
As for Michigan, this team is getting a lot of respect, but I don't think it's enough. This team was here a year ago and didn't play up to their liking. This entire season has been about getting back to the playoffs and delivering a big time showing in this spot. This team annihilated the two best teams they played in Penn State and Ohio State, beating the Nittany Lions 41-1 and the Buckeyes 45-23.
Michigan was outstanding at running the football, averaging 243 yards/game and 5.7 yards/carry. TCU gave up 152 rush yards/game and 4.2 yards/carry and that was in a watered down Big 12 where the majority of teams like to throw the football. I just think the Wolverines are going to impose their will on the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball and win this game going away. Give me the Wolverines -7.5!
|12-31-22||Kansas State v. Alabama -7||20-45||Win||100||2 h 1 m||Show|
9* NCAAF - Sugar Bowl ATS SLAUGHTER: Alabama -7
I'll lay the 7-points with Alabama against Kansas State in Saturday's Sugar Bowl. The big concern for the Crimson Tide coming into this game was how motivated would they be to play after missing out on the playoffs. I believe we got the answer to that with all of Alabama's future 1st round picks not opting out. While they haven't said it, it's got the feel here of the Crimson Tide looking to come out and make a statement. They want to show everyone that they are one of the 4 best teams and should have been invited to the 4-team playoff.
That's bad news for Kansas State, who I think is getting way too much respect here. Sure the Wildcats won the Big 12 title, defeating TCU to end the Horned Frogs perfect season. A great win, but the Horned Frogs to me are frauds. They have pulled several wins out that should have been losses and will likely get exposed later in the night against Michigan in the Fiesta Bowl.
It's also a bad matchup for K-State, who wants to run the football, grind out the clock and let their defense win them the game. I just don't see them being able to stop Alabama from scoring and running the ball right at this Alabama defense is not a great recipe for success. Give me the Crimson Tide -7!
|12-30-22||Maryland v. NC State -1||Top||16-12||Loss||-110||3 h 55 m||Show|
10* NCAAF - Duke's Mayo Bowl VEGAS INSIDER: NC State -1
I will gladly take my chances with NC State at basically a pick'em against Maryland in Friday's Duke Mayo Bowl. I just feel like the Terps are getting way too much respect here. Maryland's offense figures to have a really tough time moving the football against an elite Wolfpack defense.
A big reason for that is the talent the Terps will be missing. Maryland had 3 legit NFL wideouts in Rakim Jarrett, Dontay Demus and Jacob Copeland. All 3 have decided not to play in this game. The only wideout who had more than 250 yards receiving that will be available is Jeshaun Jones.
I'm also not a big fan of Maryland quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa. Yes, he's extremely accurate, but he wasn't nearly as good this year as he was last year. He's also a quarterback that has feasted on bad teams and struggled against better competition. Over the last 2 years, Tagovailoa has faced 13 teams with a winning record and has a 18/15 TD/INT ratio. Compare that to a 25/2 TD/INT ratio in 11 games vs teams with a losing record.
NC State has been hit hard with injuries at the quarterback position, but the offense did perform well when true freshman M.J. Morris was under center. He had a 7-1 TD/INT ratio in 3 starts. He got hurt at the end of the year, but is expected to be ready for the bowl game.
I just think the NC State defense will make enough plays for the Wolfpack to get out to a comfortable win and secure the victory. Give me NC State -1!
|12-29-22||Washington +3.5 v. Texas||Top||27-20||Win||100||21 h 5 m||Show|
10* NCAAF Alamo Bowl VEGAS INSIDER: Washington Huskies +3.5
I'm going to grab the 3.5-points with Washington as they take on Texas in the Alamo Bowl Thursday night. I don't think the Longhorns should be laying more than a field goad and I'm not so sure they should even be favored in this game.
Texas had arguably their best player on each side of the ball opt out in running back Bijan Robinson and linebacker DeMarvion Overshown. Robison rushed for 1,580 yards and 18 touchdowns. Not only will he be out, but backup running back Rochon Johnson, who had 554 yards and 5 scores has also opted out. That leaves freshman Jonathan Brooks, who had just 179 yards, as their leading rusher going into this game.
That's going to put a lot of pressure on Quinn Ewers to shoulder the offense. Ewers flashed at times in his freshman season, but I thought he regressed as the season went on. He really seemed to be flustered by pressure and this Washington defense has shown the ability to get to the quarterback and have done so without blitzing.
On the flip side of the ball, you have an explosive Washington offense that put up 40.8 ppg, 523 ypg and 7.1 yards/play going up against what I think is a very middle of the pack Texas defense without Overshown. Michael Penix and the Huskies offense tormented zone defense and is facing a Longhorns defense that played zone on roughly 75% of their defensive snaps. Without Robinson and Johnson, Texas won't be able to play keep away. This should at the very least be a pick'em. Give me the Huskies +3.5!
|12-28-22||Kansas +2.5 v. Arkansas||Top||53-55||Win||100||8 h 12 m||Show|
10* NCAAF Liberty Bowl VEGAS INSIDER: Kansas Jayhawks +2.5
I will take my chances with Kansas as a 2.5-point dog against Arkansas in the Liberty Bowl on Wednesday. The Jayhawks should be the much more motivated side in this one. Kansas is coming off a shocking 2022 regular-season that saw them go 6-6 and become bowl eligible for the first time since 2008.
Kansas went just 3-6 in the Big 12, which might not seem all that impressive. However, were talking about a team that was 6-83 in conference games over the previous 10 years. Almost everyone had them picked to finish last in the Big 12.
In just two years, head coach Lance Leipold has turned this program around and now Kansas has a chance to cement their best season in more than a decade with a win over a SEC opponent.
That opponent is Arkansas, who I just don't think is all that excited about playing in this game. The Razorbacks have have had several key players opt out. On offense starting center Ricky Stromberg and 2nd leading receiver Jadon Haselwood opted out, while starting tight end Trey Knox and their No. 3 wideout Ketron Jackson entered the portal. Haselwood, Knox and Jackson combined to catch 101 passes for 1,275 yards and 11 TDs. That's 47.6% of their receptions, 46.1% of their yards and 45.8% of their receiving TDs out the door.
On defense, Arkansas will be without linebackers Drew Sanders and Bumper Pool, defensive back Myles Slusher and defensive tackle Isaiah Nichols. Sanders led the team in tackles (103) and sacks (9.5), Pool was second in tackles (92). Their leading tackler on the field will be Simeon Blaier, who finished with 66. Considering the Razorbacks allowed 28.8 ppg, 454 ypg and 6.5 yards/play with Sanders and Pool on the field, it could get ugly without them against a high-powered KU offensive attack. Give me the Jayhawks +2.5!
|12-27-22||Georgia Southern -3.5 v. Buffalo||21-23||Loss||-110||136 h 35 m||Show|
9* NCAAF Camellia Bowl ATS ANNIHILATOR: Georgia Southern -3.5
I'm going to take Georgia Southern as a 3.5-point favorite against Buffalo in the Camellia Bowl on Tuesday, December 27. I got no problem laying less than a touchdown with the Eagles in this one.
While both of these teams snapped 3-game losing streaks in their final game of the regular-season to get to 6-6 and bowl eligible, Georgia Southern upset App State 51-48 as a 6.5-point dog, while the Bulls had to rally for a 23-22 win at home against Akron as a 11.5-point favorite.
I just have a lot more trust in this Eagles team. Georgia Southern played the much more difficult schedule and had impressive wins, beating Nebraska 45-42 on the road as a 23.5-point dog and knocking off James Madison 45-38 as a 13-point dog.
I know Buffalo caught the eye of a lot of people when they put together a 5-game win streak in the middle of the season, but the advanced numbers suggested it was a bit fluky. No bigger example of that than their 34-27 win against Toledo. The Rockets turned it over 6 times in that game and blew a 27-10 4th quarter lead. They have gone 0-4 ATS since that win over Toledo.
Both these teams played Coastal Carolina and both lost, but one was competitive and the other wasn't. Georgia Southern lost by a final score of 30 to 34. They were outgained by just 23 yards in defeat. Buffalo lost by 12 and were outgained by 167 yards. The Eagles averaged 6.2 yards/play vs the Chanticleer, while the Bulls could only muster 3.6 yards/play.
Georgia Southern averaged 6.2 yards/play on the season, gaining 0.8 yards/play more than what their opponents gave up on average. Buffalo averaged just 4.9 yards/play, which is -1.1 yards/play on average below what their opponents allowed.
So while both of these defense gave up over 6.0 yards/play, there's only one offense I trust to consistently put together scoring drives and that's Georgia Southern.
There's also a little extra motivation for Georgia Southern quarterback Kyle Vantrease in this game, as he made 26 starts over the previous 5 years at Buffalo before transferring to Statesboro last offseason. He will definitely be up for this game and I think his teammates are going to want to do everything they can to help make sure he gets a win. Give me the Eagles -3.5!
|12-26-22||Chargers v. Colts +4||Top||20-3||Loss||-110||11 h 46 m||Show|
10* NFL Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: Indianapolis Colts +4
I'll take my chances with the Colts as a 4-point home dog against the Chargers on Monday Night Football. Not many are going to want anything to do with betting Indy in this one. Not after last week's historic collapse against the Vikings, where Indy somehow managed to turn a 33-0 halftime lead into a 36-39 OT loss. It was the largest blown lead in NFL history and you can bet this Colts team is sick and tired of hearing about it. What better way to put it to rest, than playing at home on Monday Night Football against an opponent fighting for their playoff lives.
I also like the decision head coach Jeff Saturday has made to bench Matt Ryan in favor of Nick Foles. A move I think they should have done a long time ago. Ryan just has been too inconsistent and has done a horrible job protecting the football. Foles gives that offense new life and it simply can't be any worse.
As for the Chargers, they haven't exactly been clicking on the offensive side of the ball. LA scored just 20 points on the road in a loss to the Raiders, put up 23 at home against a very average Dolphins defense and last week snuck by a bad Titans defense with a 17-14 win. This is also a Chargers defense that has allowed 368.6 ypg and 6.2 yards/play on the road this season. I just can't get to them being this big a road favorite. Give me the Colts +4!
|12-25-22||Broncos -2.5 v. Rams||Top||14-51||Loss||-120||54 h 5 m||Show|
10* NFL Christmas Day ATS MASSACRE: Denver Broncos -2.5
I'll take my chances with the Broncos as a 2.5-point road favorite against the Rams. The fact that Denver, who is just 4-10, is favored on the road against the defending champs, tells you everything you need to know about how bad this season has went for Los Angeles. Injuries have completely derailed any hopes the Rams had of running it back. Just on the offensive side of the ball, they have lost starting quarterback Matthew Stafford, one of the best WR in the game in Cooper Kupp and their big FA signing at WR in Allen Robinson. They have also had a ridiculous 14 different starters on the offensive line. No injuries at running back, but they might as well, but it's not like they can run the ball.
Baker Mayfield is starting at quarterback after he was claimed off waivers a couple weeks ago. Mayfield did lead a crazy comeback win against the Raiders in his first start, but the offense managed just 3 points for 56+ mins of that game. They then proceeded to score just 12 points and rack up a mer 156 total yards in a 12-point loss at Green Bay last week.
Simply put, this offense is down bad, even more so than this Broncos team. You combine that with the talent Denver has on the defensive side of the football and I just think it's without question the biggest mismatch on the field in this game. The Broncos offense has looked a little more competentent of late as well, scoring 24 last week in a win at home over Arizona and 28 the week before against the Chiefs. I'm confident they can score enough to win this game by at least a field goal. Give me the Broncos -2.5!
|12-24-22||Raiders v. Steelers -2||10-13||Win||100||69 h 22 m||Show|
9* NFL Raiders/Steelers ATS NO-BRAINER: Steelers -2
I'm going to take the Pittsburgh Steelers as a 2-point home favorite against the Las Vegas Raiders. I just think this is the perfect spot to go against the Raiders. Las Vegas comes into this game having won 4 of their last 5 games and everyone is talking about them after their crazy 30-24 win over New England last week, where the Patriots started lateralling the ball on the final play with the game tied and it ended up resulting in a Raiders defensive touchdown. Keep in mind this came after Las Vegas went 81 yards in 1:39 to tie the game with just 32 seconds to play.
They also had similar wins over the Broncos and Seahawks during this 4-1 run. They tied it up with Denver with 16 left before winning the game in OT. They scored with 1:54 on the clock to tie it up and force OT in their win over Seattle.
So while it may appear this team is playing better, I'm not buying it and I think they are going to have a terrible time keeping this game respectable against Pittsburgh. The Steelers are better than they get credit for. Pittsburgh has won 5 of their last 9 games with the 4 losses coming all to playoff teams in the Dolphins, Eagles, Bengals and Raiders.
I also think the atmosphere at this game is going to be something special. This game is being played to honor of the Immaculate Reception by Franco Harris. They are going to retire his number at the half, which is something they don't do often in Pittsburgh. Unfortunately Harris won't be there to see it, as he passed away on Wednesday. I see the Steelers laying it all on the line in this one in honor of Harris.
I also don't think you can handicap this game without looking at the weather. These two teams will be lucky if the temp reaches double-digits. Wind Chills are expected to be pushing -10 degrees. I get the Raiders have played games in the cold, but chances are not many have played in games that are going to be this cold. I just think it plays to the strength of the Steelers, who are the more physical team. Give me Pittsburgh -2!
|12-24-22||Seahawks +10 v. Chiefs||10-24||Loss||-107||27 h 34 m||Show|
9* NFL - Public Money ATS SLAUGHTER: Seattle Seahawks +10
I'll take my chances with the Seahawks as a 10-point road dog against the Chiefs on Saturday. Kansas City has no business laying double-digits against Seattle. Yes, the Seahawks have lost 4 of their last 5 and failed to cover in all 5, but all 4 losses during this stretch have come by 8 or fewer points. The Chiefs have won 7 of their last 8 and own one of the league's best records at 11-3, but are just 4-9 ATS over their last 13 games, with two of those covers being a 10-point win over Jacksonville as a 9.5-point favorite and a 16 point win over the Rams as a 15.5-point favorite.
It just seems that whenever KC is playing well, the books don't hesitate to inflate the number on them and it makes sense given how willingly the public is to lay their money on a quarterback like Mahomes.
Not only is the line inflated, but this Kansas City defense has not been playing well at all of late. Their run defense has slipped from the start of the year and while their not giving up a ton of yards in the passing game here of late, they just don't seem to make a lot of big plays and aren't great on 3rd downs. I think Geno Smith will be able to do enough here to at the very least keep this a one-score game. Give me the Seahawks +10!
|12-24-22||Giants +4 v. Vikings||Top||24-27||Win||100||27 h 34 m||Show|
10* NFL - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: New York Giants +4
I got no problem taking the 4-points with the Giants as they go on the road to face the Vikings on Saturday. I just don't think Minnesota should be laying more than a field goal in this match. The Vikings are without a doubt the luckiest team in the NFL this season. They added yet another close win to their resume with last Saturday's crazy 39-36 OT win over the Colts, where they rallied from a 33-0 halftime deficit. You just can't keep winning games like this.
I also think this is a horrible matchup for the Vikings. Minnesota has not been able to get their run game going of late. Vikings have eclipsed 100 yards rushing just once in their last 5 games and are averaging just 74.4 ypg during this stretch. I don't know if having to rely heavily on the pass game is a good strategy against a stingy Giants secondary. New York's only giving up 216.9 passing yards/game on the season and have allowed more than 300 yards passing just once all season.
If the offense struggles to throw, they could find themselves in another big hole in this one, because there's no signs that this Vikings defense is going to get better. Minnesota is dead last in the NFL in total defense, giving up 278.8 ypg. They are allowing an average of 6.2 yards/play and are giving up an average of 31.3 ppg over their last 6 contests. Give me the Giants +4!
|12-23-22||Wake Forest -2 v. Missouri||Top||27-17||Win||100||10 h 35 m||Show|
10* NCAAF Pre-New Year's PLAY OF THE YEAR : Wake Forest Demon Deacons -2
I'll take my chances with Wake Forest as a 2-point favorite against Missouri in the Gasparilla Bowl. The Demon Deacons went just 1-4 SU and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 game, while Missouri closed out the year winning 4 of their last 6 to get bowl eligible. It might have some thinking the Tigers are the play as a dog in this matchup, but opt outs, coaching departures and transfers have really hit this Missouri team hard.
It's no secret this Demon Deacons defense isn't very good, especially against the pass. In their last 3 games to end the season they gave up 448 passing yards to North Carolina, 357 to Syracuse and 391 to Duke. They were missing safety Malik Mustapha for those 3 and are expected to get him back. Missouri will also be playing this game without their best wide receiver in Dominic Lovett, who had 56 catches for 846 yards (accounted for 25.3% of Missouri's completed passess). The Tigers also lost quarterbacks coach Bush Hamdan. Might not seem like a big deal, but quarterback Brady Cook had a noticable spike in his play when head coach Eli Drinkwitz surrendered play-calling duties to Hamdan. Drinkwitz will go back to calling the plays for this game.
On the flip side, Wake Forest got good news when quarterback Sam Hartman decided he wanted to play in this game. Hartman is still undecided if he's going to transfer or try his luck in the NFL Draft. He's got a chance here to set the ACC record for TD passes (needs just 1) and become the second ACC QB to end his career with more than 13,000 passing yards (needs 313). He's clearly got some incentive to play well and I think his teammates will be motivated to play well for him. Star wide out A.T. Perry also could have easily declared for the draft, but decided to play.
Missouri's defense figured to give this potent Wake Forest some problems, but that was before their two best defensive linemen Isaiah McGuire and D.J. Coleman decided to leave early to prepare for the NFL draft. They also lost a good safety in Martez Manuel. That's pretty much the Tigers' entire pass rush gone for this game. You got no chance of stopping this WF offense without getting pressure on Hartman and I just don't see Missouri's offense being able to keep pace. Give me the Demon Deacons -2!
|12-22-22||Jaguars v. Jets -1.5||Top||19-3||Loss||-108||22 h 53 m||Show|
10* NFL Thursday Night Football VEGAS INSIDER: New York Jets -1.5
I'll take my chances with the Jets as a 1.5-point home favorite against the Jags on Thursday Night Football. This is just too good a price to pass up on New York, especially at home in a game that will be played on just 3 days rest. Home team has a huge edge in this one. Jets should be extra motivated coming into this game having lost 3 straight. All 3 games they could have easily won.
I thought Zach Wilson played well last week in place of Mike White. Better than expected. Maybe the benching helped him. Either way, this is another defense he should be able to move the ball against. Jacksonville is giving up 26.4 ppg, 394 ypg and 6.0 yards/play on the road this season.
I also think this is a big flat spot for Jacksonville off last week's huge 17-point come from behind win at home against the Cowboys. How much of that was Dallas looking ahead to this week's game against the Eagles? It certainly didn't look like the Cowboys were fully invested. This is also the 3rd road game in less than 4 weeks for Jacksonville, who has shockingly will not play a single stretch all season where they play two consecutive games at home. This team is on a plane to a new city or back home every week. This feels like the spot where it catches up to them. Give me the Jets -1.5!
|12-22-22||Air Force +3.5 v. Baylor||30-15||Win||100||21 h 33 m||Show|
9* NCAAF Armed Forces Bowl ATS SLAUGHTER: Air Force Falcons +3.5
I will gladly take my chances with Air Force as a 3.5-point underdog against Baylor in the Armed Forces Bowl on Thursday. You would think that service academies would be at a disadvantage in bowl games, given how long the opposing teams has to prepare for the triple-option, but that seems to be getting baked into the line. Army, Navy and Air Force are a combined 21-9 ATS in bowl games going back to 2005.
Motivation is also everything in bowl games. I have to think Air Force will be the more excited team to play in this game. Service Academies just don't take these games off. Probably why they are so good against the number. Falcons should be excited to play a Power 5 school. As for Baylor, this is not the bowl game they thought they would be playing in.
It's not exactly going to be nice out for this game either. Temps are expected to be below 20 with winds pushing 20 mph with gusts upward of 40 mph. That 100% favors the better running team, which is Air Force. With Baylor's pass game negated, I wouldn't be shocked here if the Falcons won this convincingly. Give me Air Force +3.5!
|12-21-22||South Alabama -3.5 v. Western Kentucky||Top||23-44||Loss||-110||12 h 37 m||Show|
10* New Orleans Bowl VEGAS INSIDER: S Alabama -3.5
I'll take my chances with South Alabama laying 3.5 in the New Orleans Bowl against Western Kentucky. I think this Jaguars team is going to relish in the opportunity to put some more respect on their season. This team went 10-2 with their only two losses being by 1-point on the road to UCLA and by 4 to the Sun Belt's best team in Troy. They also won 9 of their 10 games by at least a touchdown.
They are going to be facing a WKU team that has been decimated by players leaving either to the portal or leaving early to prepare for the NFL draft. On offense they won't have second leading receiver Daewood Davis, starting left tackle Gunner Britton and center Rusty Staats. The big story here is the loss of two starters on the o-line and those are widely considered the two most important positions on the offensive line.
That to me is going to be a serious problem against a South Alabama defense that gave up just 19.4 ppg, 304 ypg and 4.8 yards/play. They only gave up 300 passing yards once all season.
The Hilltoppers also lost second leading tackler Derrick Smith (NFL), corner Kahlef Hailassie (NFL) and safety Talique Allen (Portal) on the defensive side of the ball. Those losses in the secondary could be big. Give me South Alabama -3.5!
|12-18-22||Titans +3 v. Chargers||Top||14-17||Push||0||76 h 16 m||Show|
10* NFL Vegas Insider PLAY OF THE MONTH: Tennessee Titans +3
I love the Titans as a 3-point road dog against the Chargers. This is a great buy-low spot on the Titans coming off last week's surprising 22-36 loss at home to the Jags. It's also a great sell-high spot on the Chargers, who are off a 23-17 upset win at home against the Dolphins.
I get there was a lot not to like with the performance the Titans gave against the Jags, but it is worth noting they turned it over 4 times in that game. Jaguars had to go less than 50 yards on each of their first 3 scoring drives. It had them playing from behind and that's just not an ideal scenario for this run-heavy team.
They shouldn't have any problem keeping their offense humming along in this one, as the Chargers have one of the worst run defenses in the league. I know LA's defense played great against Tua and the Dolphins, but I believe that was more of them just copying what the 49ers did to slow down Miami. I haven't even got into all the injuries the Chargers are dealing with on the defensive side of the ball.
I know it will be Justin Herbert facing off against this bad Titans secondary, but I think the Titans are going to be able to get a pass rush going in this game. Herbert has been running for his life of late. He's been sacked 18 times in the last 4 games, getting sacked at least 4 times in each game. Herbert may very well throw for a bunch of yards, but those negative plays are going to kill drives. I also think it will be tough for LA to execute in the redzone. Simply put, I like the Titans to win this game and to do so rather easily. Give me Tennessee +3!
|12-18-22||Patriots v. Raiders +1||24-30||Win||100||76 h 59 m||Show|
9* NFL Situational ATS NO-BRAINER: Las Vegas Raiders +1
I'll take my chances with the Raiders as a 1-point home dog against the Patriots. Las Vegas is nowhere near as bad as their 5-8 record would lead you to believe. Their scoring differential for the season is a mere -5. Just to give you an idea of where that stacks up with the rest of the league, Miami is 10th in the NFL in scoring difference at +4.
The Raiders couldn't be much unluckier in close games. Out of their 8 losses 7 of those have come by 7 or fewer points. That includes their shocking 16-17 loss at the Rams last week. The Raiders had a 16-3 lead in the 4th quarter of that game. It was all downhill from there. They gave up a 17-play 75-yard TD drive and then let the Rams go 98-yards on just 8 plays in 1:35 to score the game-winning TD with just 10 seconds to play. LA had 173 total yards in those last two drives. They had 109 total yards prior to that.
It's a bad look to lose a game like that, but I don't think it's going to keep the Raiders from coming out with a big effort in this game. Keep in mind, if they win that game, they would be coming into this game having won 4 straight.
Not only do I think the Raiders come into this game a bit undervalued, I'm not sold on this Patriots team. Sure they are coming off a 27-13 win at Arizona, but the Cardinals lost starting quarterback Kyler Murray early in that game. NE only outgunned Arizona 328-323.
I just don't like what I've seen at all out of this Patriots offense and I don't think there defense is as good as what it gets made out to be. In this game, they will be facing a Raiders offense that is scoring 28.0 ppg at home. I just don't think NE is going to be able keep pace offensively. Give me the Raiders +1!
|12-18-22||Lions v. Jets||20-17||Loss||-110||73 h 21 m||Show|
9* NFL Sharp Money ATS MASSACRE: New York Jets PK
I'm going to take the New York Jets as a pick'em at home against the Detroit Lions. I just think this is the time to fade the Lions. Detroit has really changed the narrative on their season and how they are perceived by going 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games. The most recent being an impressive 34-23 win at home over a Minnesota team that came in with a 10-2 record.
No question Dan Campbell has got this team playing well, but let's not get too carried away with this. The Lions other 4 wins during their recent hot streak are against the Jags, Giants, Bears and Packers. They have also benefited from playing each of their last 3 games at home, where they are simply a different offensive team.
Detroit is scoring 26.8 ppg for the season, yet are only averaging 18.4 ppg on the road. You also got to factor in the Lions being a team that plays their home games in a dome. This game will be played outdoors with the wind chill expected to around freezing.
Not to mention they are facing a pretty stingy Jets defense, that is only giving up 18.7 ppg. New York is holding opponents to an average of just 301 ypg and 5.0 yards/play and that's against teams who on average have put up 349 ypg and 5.8 yards/play.
This just also feels like the perfect spot to back the Jets, who come in off back-to-back road losses to the Vikings and Bills where they had to feel like they were the better team. New York outgained the Vikings 486 to 297, averaging 5.9 yards/play to Minnesota's 4.3. They also outgained Buffalo 309 to 232 this past Sunday.
I still think this is a better team with Mike White at quarterback instead of Zach Wilson. With White the offense can actually compliment the defense. I definitely think the offense will do their part in this game. Detroit's not a great defensive team. The Lions are giving up 26.7 ppg, 403 yards/game and 6.4 yards/play. I just don't see Detroit scoring enough to pull off the road win in this one.
Note that the Lions are just 3-12 ATS last 15 times they have played on the road having won 4 of their last 5 games.
We also see that Road teams with a line of +3 to -3 who are giving up 24 or more points/game and have scored 25 or more in each of their last 4 games are just 4-24 ATS in the NFL going back to 1983. This system is a perfect 1-0 this season, 9-1 over the last 3 seasons and 17-2 over the last 10 years. Give me the Jets Pk!
*This play was released before the news came out that Mike White was going to be unavailable to play. With that said, I'm sticking with my play on the Jets. Zach Wilson may be a slight downgrade from White, but this Lions defense is one that even Wilson can have success against. I also have a ton of trust in this Jets defense and their ability to make things extremely difficult on Goff and this Lions offense.
|12-18-22||Cowboys v. Jaguars +4||Top||34-40||Win||100||73 h 48 m||Show|
10* NFL Non-Conf PLAY OF THE MONTH: Jacksonville Jaguars +4
I'll take my chances with the Jaguars as a 4-point home dog against the Cowboys. I just think this Cowboys team is a bit overrated and simply being asked to lay too many points on the road in a massive lookahead spot. Next week's showdown with the Eagles is being hyped like it's the Super Bowl. It's certainly a game Dallas has been looking forward to with all the hype Philly has been getting this season.
I get the Cowboys come into this game having won 4 straight, but I don't think they have necessarily played great. Sure they couldn't have looked better in a 40-3 win at Minnesota to start the win streak back in Week 11, but the Vikings are as big a fraud as you are going to find. They far from dominated the Giants at home on Thanksgiving Day the next week. They did beat the Colts 54-19, but they did go into the 4th quarter of that game leading 21-19. Last week they trailed going into the 4th quarter against one of the league's worst teams in the Texans, scoring a late TD to sneak out a 27-23 win.
Thing is, when you are winning you don't really focus on the negatives like you do when you are losing. You also have a tendency to repeat those mistakes. I definitely think that will be the case here and I just don't think this Jags team is one you want to overlook right now. Jacksonville deserves a lot of credit for their 14-point road win over the Titans last week. Trevor Lawrence is only getting better and it just feels like this team has figured some things out.
I can assure you the Jags are going to be motivated for this game. They are basically in playoff mode right now, as they probably need to win out to have any real shot at making the playoffs. Give me the more motivated team, playing at home and getting points. Give me the Jaguars +4!
|12-17-22||Dolphins v. Bills -7||29-32||Loss||-110||56 h 2 m||Show|
9* NFL Saturday Prime Time ATS SLAUGHTER: Buffalo Bills -7
I got no problem laying a touchdown at home with Buffalo against the Dolphins. Defenses have figured out how to stop this Miami offense. The 49ers laid the blueprint and a Chargers defense that was missing 6 starters replicated it the next week. They are pressing the speedy wideouts and taking away the middle of the field. In the last two games, Tua has returned to the Tua we saw in the past.
I would be shocked here if Buffalo didn't give them the same looks. I also think the Miami offense and entire team for that matter, could struggle in what figures to be some less than ideal playing conditions. The wind chill is expected to be below 20 with close to 25 mph wind gusts.
I know that's not ideal playing conditions for the Buffalo offense either, but their might not be a better quarterback for shitty weather than Josh Allen. He's got the arm strength to zip the ball thru the wind and is really an elite runner with the ball.
I also don't think this Dolphins defense is very good. It certainly hasn't been on the road this season. Miami is giving up 31.4 ppg, 387 ypg and 6.1 yards/play away from South Beach.
The Dolphins defense certainly couldn't stop the Bills in the previous meeting between these two teams this season. Buffalo put up 497 total yards. Their defense also held Miami to just 212 yards. Hard to believe the Dolphins won that game 21-19. I got to think that loss is fresh in the minds of the Bills.
This also feels like a huge game for Buffalo in securing an AFC East title. A win here and the Bills would be at least 3 games up on every other team in the division. A loss would put them just 1-game ahead of Miami with the Dolphins holding the tie-breaker. My money is on Buffalo to not just win, but make a statement doing so. Give me the Bills -7!
|12-17-22||Fresno State -3.5 v. Washington State||Top||29-6||Win||100||45 h 20 m||Show|
10* NCAAF Los Angeles Bowl VEGAS INSIDER: Fresno State Bulldogs -3.5
I don't think the books are close on this one. All signs in this one point to a convincing win here by the Bulldogs. I don't have much doubt that Fresno State is going to be up for this game. The message was sent to the entire team when star quarterback Jake Haener decided to play instead of leaving early to prepare for the NFL draft.
This is also a Fresno State team that caught fire after a slow start. The Bulldogs were just 1-4 thru 5 games with their only win against Cal Poly. They haven't lost since, riding a 8-game win streak, most recently knocking off Boise State 28-16 in the MWC title game. Pretty impressive a team that was once 1-4 has a shot here for a 10-win season.
The offense has been great since Haener returned from injury and the defense has made a few schematic changes that seem to be working.
As for Washington State, they are a complete mess coming into this game. Both their offensive and defensive coordinators took jobs at other schools. They won't have 3 of their top 4 receivers on offense and 3 top linebackers aren't playing on defense. This team can't run the ball, so not having those weapons on the outside is huge. They are also awful against the pass and facing an elite quarterback. Give me Fresno State -3.5!
|12-17-22||Louisville -2 v. Cincinnati||24-7||Win||100||47 h 31 m||Show|
9* NCAAF Fenway Bowl ATS ANNIHILATOR: Louisville Cardinals -2
I'm going to lay the 2-points with Louisville as they take on Cincinnati in the Fenway Bowl on Saturday. This bowl game has an interesting twist to it, with former Louisville head coach Scott Satterfield just recently being hired as the new head coach of the Bearcats. A move Cincinnati had to make after watching their head coach, Luke Fickell, take over at Wisconsin.
I think most are going to assume that Satterfield is going to just hand over the Louisville playbook to Cincinnati to help them prepare for this game. That would be quite the low ball move if he does, as Satterfield was not fired from Louisville. He's came out and said he would not interfere with the bowl preparations. Part of that is a sign of respect to the staff leftover at Cincinnati.
Yes, Satterfield took a number of his assistants with him, but so did Fickell in his departure to Wisconsin. In my opinion, the loss of Fickell is going to hurt the Bearcats more than the loss of Satterfield for the Cardinals. Fickell is the defensive mastermind behind what got Cincinnati to this point. He took his two defensive coordinators with him to Madison.
I also got to think that while Satterfield won't be on the sidelines for this game, this game now means a little more to the Cardinals with him leaving to be the head coach at Cincinnati.
I also think you just got to question the overall motivation for the Bearcats in this game. Cincinnati's loss to Tulane in their finale cost them a spot in the AAC title game, where a win over UCF would have certainly had them playing in a better bowl. Quite a difference between playing on the first Saturday of bowl season to playing in the CFB playoffs last year. Give me Louisville -2!
|12-16-22||Troy +2.5 v. UTSA||18-12||Win||100||7 h 42 m||Show|
8* NCAAF Cure Bowl ATS DESTROYER: Troy Trojans +2.5
I'll take my chances with Troy as a 2.5-point dog against UTSA in Friday's Cure Bowl. This is one of the more intriguing matchups of the early bowl slate, as you have the best offensive team in the Group of 5 (UTSA) facing off against the best defensive team in the Group of 5 (Troy).
I'll side with the better defensive team in the Trojans, as I think they are going to be able to slow down Frank Harris and that UTSA offense. One thing that I think you need to make note of with the Roadrunners big offensive numbers, is they played an extremely soft schedule in terms of opposing defenses. Maybe even the bigger hurdle for UTSA's offense is the fact that they lost offensive coordinator Will Stein (accepted same role at Oregon).
The other big thing for me, is I think this Troy offense will be able to move the ball against this UTSA defense. The Roadrunners have a strong run defense, but you can rack up yards thru the air on this defense. The Trojans offense was hitting on all cylinders down the stretch, scoring 42.3 ppg and averaging 6.6 yards/play over their last 3 games. Give me Troy +2.5!
|12-15-22||49ers -3 v. Seahawks||Top||21-13||Win||100||10 h 21 m||Show|
10* NFL - 49ers/Seahawks NFC West PLAY OF THE YEAR: San Francisco 49ers -3
I'll take my chances with the 49ers laying just 3-points on the road against Seattle. If this game were being played about a month ago, I'd say it was about right. A lot has changed for these teams, most notably San Francisco.
The 49ers traded for star running back Christian McCaffrey and have seen Brandon Aiyuk blossom alongside Deebo Samuel and George Kittle. It's why I'm not overly concerned about the absence of Samuel in this game, especially against what I think is a pretty bad Seattle defense.
San Francisco also has a new quarterback by injury and don't seem to concerned about it. Brock Purdy, who was the last pick in last year's draft, has thrived in relief. He played great coming off the bench in the game Jimmy G got hurt against the Dolphins. He was every bit as good in his first start against the 49ers, as SF won in a blowout 35-7. I'm going to jump on the Purdy bandwagon until he doesn't deliver.
As for the Seahawks, their midseason momentum has been put to a stop with 3 losses in their last 4 games. The run game has disappeared (60.0 ypg L4), Geno Smith isn't playing as well as he was and the defense is getting exposed again. I can't see them getting the run game going against the 49ers defense. Smith is going to have to play out of his mind for Seattle to move the football.
I just don't see the Seahawks being able to keep pace. I like the 49ers to not just win and cover, but to win here convincingly. Give me San Francisco -3!
|12-11-22||Bucs v. 49ers -3||7-35||Win||100||28 h 52 m||Show|
9* NFL Situational ATS NO-BRAINER: San Francisco 49ers -3
I'll take my chances with the 49ers as a 3-point home favorite against the Bucs. I think we are getting some exceptional value here with San Francisco, largely due to the market not really knowing what to make of the 49ers being down to 3rd string QB Brock Purdy.
I was impressed with what I saw out of Purdy in relief of Garoppolo in last week's 33-17 win over the Dolphins. He went 25 of 37 for 210 yards and 2 TDs. Much like Garoppolo, he's not going to be asked to shoulder the load. They are going to get the ball out of his hands quick and let their playmakers do the rest.
It also helps having one of the league's best defenses. I'm not buying the Bucs two late TD drives against the Saints as some sign that this offense is going to break out. I don't think there's any fixing Tampa Bay's offense. I really think the 49ers defense is going to torment Brady and the Bucs in this one. Give me the 49ers -3!
|12-11-22||Jets +10 v. Bills||12-20||Win||100||25 h 34 m||Show|
9* NFL Smart Money ATS MASSACRE: New York Jets +10
I'll take my chances with the Jets as a 10-point road dog against the Bills. These two teams already played once in New York, with the Jets winning that game 20-17 as a 10.5-point home dog. They did so with Zach Wilson as their starting QB. I'm not saying their new starter, Mike White, is this elite guy, but he's a massive upgrade over Wilson. Not just on the field, but I think there's a different mindset with the entire team now that Wilson isn't the guy under center.
White led the Jets to a 31-10 win over the Bears in his first start and then really should have gotten them a big road win at the Vikings last week. New York ended up losing that game 22-27, despite outgaining the Vikings 486-287.
We saw the Jets' defense really give Josh Allen and that Bills offense some troubles in the first meeting and I expect more of the same this time around. Buffalo to me is just being way overvalued coming off a big win and cover in a prime time game against the Patriots. Give me the Jets +10!
|12-11-22||Jaguars v. Titans -3.5||Top||36-22||Loss||-105||25 h 33 m||Show|
10* AFC SOUTH PLAY OF THE MONTH: Tennessee Titans -3.5
I can't help myself but to lay it with the Titans at home against the Jaguars. I just don't understand all the Jacksonville love from the oddsmakers this season. Jacksonville is just 2-7 SU and 2-7 ATS over their last 9 games, yet are being treated here like they are the same playing field as the Titans. Not to mention Tennessee just seems to be a team that year in and year out get no respect. Titans were the No. 1 seed in the AFC last year and yet are 8-4 ATS this year.
Tennessee is 7-3 SU in their last 10 games and those 3 losses are to the Chiefs by 3, the Bengals by 4 and then last week's ugly 25-point loss at the Eagles. I get it the loss was bad, but that was a tough matchup for the Titans. It's not going to be as tough on their offense against the Jags.
This is also a Jaguars offense that has scored 17 or fewer points in 4 of their last 6 games. One exception was they scored 27 on an awful Raiders defense. They also had 28 in that crazy win over the Ravens at home a couple weeks back. Jacksonville had just 10-points in that game with under 6 minutes to play.
I also look at the head-to-head in this series, which has been dominated by the Titans. Tennessee has won the last 5 meetings with each of the last 3 wins combing by at least 18 points. Give me the Titans -3.5!
|12-05-22||Saints +3.5 v. Bucs||Top||16-17||Win||100||11 h 45 m||Show|
10* NFL Monday Night Football VEGAS INSIDER: New Orleans Saints +3.5
I'll take my chances with the Saints as a 3.5-point road dog against the Buccaneers. I just feel like 3.5 is too many points to pass up in a matchup that doesn't figure to see a ton of offense. The biggest thing for me is I just don't trust this Tampa Bay offense to get this thing turned around. The offensive line has been a major problem for the Bucs this season and it suffered a massive blow in last week's loss to the Browns, losing starting right tackle Tristan Wirfs 3-4 weeks to an ankle injury.
That combined with Tampa Bay's inability to run the football, really puts them behind the 8-ball against a New Orleans defense that ranks in the Top 10 in the NFL against the pass and is T-10th in sacks with 33.
You also got to look at how much Brady and this Bucs offense has struggled against this Saints defense even in previous years when they were putting up big numbers on the offensive side of the ball.
Tampa Bay won the previous meeting 20-10, but keep in mind that game was 3-3 midway thru the 4th quarter before Jameis Winston threw an interception on 3 consecutive drives.
New Orleans is 20-8 ATS last 28 on the road when revenging a same season loss and 17-5 ATS last 22 when revenging a road loss where they score 14 or fewer points. Give me the Saints +3.5!
|12-04-22||Dolphins v. 49ers -4.5||17-33||Win||100||16 h 48 m||Show|
8* NFL - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: San Francisco 49ers -4.5
I'll take my chances with San Francisco laying 4.5 at home against Miami. I just got a feeling this Dolphins team isn’t as good as what people think. Miami has won 5 straight since Tua’s return from a concussion and are 8-0 this season when he starts and finishes a game. It’s impressive, but at the same time, this team could very easily be 4-4 in Tua’s 8 full starts this year.
They had a ridiculous 42-38 win at Baltimore, where they trailed 14-35 going into the 4th quarter. They were outgained 497 to 212 in a 21-19 win at home over the Bills, trailed by doubled-digits in the 2nd half at Detroit and barely snuck out a 3-point win against the Bears. The other 4 wins were against the Patriots, Steelers, Browns and Texans.
I also think this team has feasted on some bad defenses and outside of the 4th quarter against the Ravens have struggled against the better defensive teams. I think a 49ers defense that can get pressure without blitzing can really cause some problems for Tua and this offense, especially when you factor in how good this San Francisco defense is against the run.
I get the 49ers offense isn’t anything special and certainly didn’t play up to their potential in last week’s 13-0 win at home against the Saints, but let’s not forget they did have to play that game on just 6 days of rest after playing the previous week in Mexico City. This is not a very good Dolphins defense. Give me the 49ers -4.5!
|12-04-22||Steelers +1 v. Falcons||Top||19-16||Win||100||12 h 29 m||Show|
10* NFL - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: Pittsburgh Steelers +1
I'll take my chances with the Steelers as a slim 1-point road dog against the Falcons. I don't understand the lack of respect for Pittsburgh and why more people aren't betting them against what I think is a very overrated Falcons team.
The Steelers are coming in off an impressive 24-17 road win over the Colts and have been playing much better over the last month than they were early on. I get they are just 3-3 in their last 6 games, but the 3 losses have come against the Dolphins, Eagles and Bengals with both games against Miami and Philly on the road.
This couldn't be a better matchup for them defensively, as they are very physical upfront and aren't going to just let teams run it down their throat. Running the football is really all this Atlanta offense can do. The Falcons are averaging a mere 155 passing yards/game for the season. Not only do they not put up numbers, but they don't have the weapons to even threaten this Steelers defense thru the air.
I also think this Falcons team is overvalued from their ridiculous ATS run to start the year. Atlanta started out the season a perfect 6-0 ATS. They are 1-5 ATS over their last 6 games. They are also just 2-4 SU over their last 6 and the two wins are a 3-point win at home over the Panthers and a 3-point win at home against the Bears. Give me the Steelers +1!
|12-03-22||Clemson v. North Carolina +7.5||39-10||Loss||-110||55 h 49 m||Show|
9* NCAAF ACC Championship VEGAS INSIDER: North Carolina Tar Heels +7.5
I'm going to take the 7.5-points with North Carolina in Saturday's ACC Championship Game against Clemson. I just feel that there's too much value here with the Tar Heels catching more than a touchdown on a neutral site.
I really question how motivated the Clemson players are for this game. I know Dabo is saying how important this game is, but this is still a program that the very least expects to be one of the teams in the 4-team playoff. Not getting there with this year's team is a disappointment.
How much do they really care about winning another ACC title? I also have to think there's some kids in that locker room wondering if D.J. Uiagalelei is the answer at quarterback. For whatever reason Dabo's attached to him. Almost like he feels bad for the kid not delivering on expectations and wants to give him the shot to prove doubters wrong. Dabo can say he wasn't the problem in last week's loss to South Carolina, but he was a dismal 8 of 29 (27.6%) for a mere 99 yards. I'm also not so sure freshman Cade Klubnik is that much of an upgrade if they go to him.
Not saying they won't be able to move the ball, I just don't believe they will be able to exploit this North Carolina defense as much as people think.
As for the Tar Heels, even after losing their last two games, I got to think they will be extremely motivated for this game. UNC has never won this game since it was first played back in 2005 and their only appearance came back in 2015. Winning this game would be everything for head coach Mack Brown, as he's trying to take this program to that next level, where they aren't just competing for Coastal titles, but national titles.
North Carolina also happens to have one of the best quarterbacks in the country in Drake Maye. Last week South Carolina's Spencer Rattler threw for 360 yards against them. If you really take a close look at the schedule for Clemson, they really haven't been great against the better offensive teams. They gave up 45 to Wake Forest, 28 to Florida State, 35 to Notre Dame and then 31 to South Carolina.
I think UNC has a great shot here to get into the 30s, which means it would probably take at least 40 for Clemson to even have a shot at cover. I don't think that's happening. Give me the Tar Heels +7.5!
|12-03-22||Central Florida +4 v. Tulane||28-45||Loss||-110||48 h 28 m||Show|
9* NCAAF UCF/Tulane AAC ATS MASSACRE: UCF Knights +4
|12-03-22||Kansas State +2.5 v. TCU||Top||31-28||Win||100||45 h 30 m||Show|
10* NCAAF K-State/TCU Big 12 PLAY OF THE MONTH : Kansas State Wildcats +2.5
I'll take my chances with K-State as a 2.5-point dog against TCU in the Big 12 title game. TCU is a good football team, but they are very lucky to be 12-0 right now. They have trailed in the 2nd half of the majority of their conference games. Yes, they destroyed Iowa State 62-14 last week, but that was more of the Cyclones not showing up to play. That defense had been too good all season to just give up 60+ points.
One of the teams TCU pulled a rabbit out of its hat was a game at home against Kansas State earlier this season. K-State had 28 points before the halfway point of the 2nd quarter and were up 18 points. They somehow didn't score again the rest of the game and ended up losing 28-38. The only other two losses for the Wildcats were a shocking 10-17 loss at home to Tulane and a 27-34 loss at home to Texas. K-State could very easily be 11-1 and knocking on the door of the playoff.
Offensively TCU has a slight edge, but the Wildcats have the better defense and will be much better prepared for the Horned Frog attack. They say defense wins championships and if that holds true, K-State should win this game. I believe they will. Give me the Wildcats +2.5!
|12-02-22||Utah v. USC -2.5||Top||47-24||Loss||-110||29 h 31 m||Show|
10* NCAAF Utah/USC Pac-12 PLAY OF THE MONTH: USC Trojans -2.5
I'll take my chances with USC as a 2.5-point favorite against Utah in the Pac-12 Championship Game in Las Vegas (Allegiant Stadium). I like the Trojans to get their revenge on Utah, as the Utes handed them their only loss of the season so far. The first meeting came back on Oct. 15. Utah won that game 43-42. The Utes scored a TD with 48 seconds to play and instead of kicking an extra point to send it to OT, they went for 2 and got it.
It's pretty amazing what Lincoln Riley has done in his first year at USC and when you look at how far Oklahoma has fallen without him, it's pretty safe he's a big part of it. So is, quarterback Caleb Williams. Thing is, isn't an elite Heisman producing QB what Riley has had with his teams at Oklahoma that made the playoffs.
He's certainly going to have his team ready to play in this game. Riley made 4 Big 12 title games in his tenure with the Sooners and Oklahoma won all 4. Their smallest margin of victory was 6 points with 3 of the 4 coming by a touchdown or more.
I don't think facing Williams a second time is going to make any easier on this Utah defense either. He's going to make plays. On the flip side, I think having seen this Utah offense will benefit the Trojans. At the end of the day, I just don't see the Utes scoring enough to win this one. Give me USC -2.5!
|11-28-22||Steelers v. Colts -2||24-17||Loss||-110||11 h 1 m||Show|
9* NFL Monday Night Football VEGAS INSIDER: Indianapolis Colts -2
I'll take my chances with the Colts as a 2-point home favorite against the Steelers on Monday Night Football. I've really liked what I've seen out of Indianapolis in the two games since Jeff Saturday took over as interim head coach. This has looked more like the team that we expected to see coming into the year, yet I still think they are being priced like the team that has a 4-6-1 record.
In the two game under Saturday, the Colts have went on the road and beat the Raiders 25-20 as a 4.5-point dog and lost 16-17 at home to the Eagles as a 7-point dog. I backed Indy in both of those games.
The defense has been outstanding in both of those games. They held the Raiders to 77 rushing yards and just 309 total yards. They held the Eagles to just 141 rushing yards and 314 total yards. I think they will be able to keep Pittsburgh from running the football and I just don't have a lot of faith in Kenny Pickett to make the plays needed on the road for Pittsburgh to win this game.
I'm not saying it will be easy for Indy's offense. I do have my concerns with that o-line trying to pass protect against T.J. Watt. However, we have seen the Colts get back to running the ball with Taylor since Saturday took over and I think he will be able to do enough to take some of the pressure off of Ryan in this one. Give me the Colts -2!
|11-27-22||Bears v. Jets -4||10-31||Win||100||133 h 57 m||Show|
9* NFL Sharp Money ATS SLAUGHTER: New York Jets -4
I'll take my chances with the Jets as a 4-point home favorite against the Bears. This to me is a no-brainer. The ONLY reason that Chicago has been competitive of late has been the play of quarterback Justin Fields. He's been absolutely tormenting defenses with his legs.
I think there's a good chance he doesn't even play in this game. Fields is listed as questionable with a pretty bad injury to his non-throwing shoulder. It really doesn't make sense for Chicago to risk playing him, as they are completely out of it at 3-8. Also, even if he were to play, I don't think he would be very effective.
Fields' ability to pick up yards with his legs has been what's transformed this Chicago offense into one of the highest scoring in the league over the last month. Bears are averaging well over 200 rushing yards/game over their last 6 games.
I just don't see him being as willing to run the ball if he's got a banged up shoulder. Not to mention, if he does, there's a good chance he reinjures it and has to leave the game.
Problem for Chicago is they needs Fields and that offense to be great for them to be competitive, because their defense has been terrible since trading away Quinn and Smith.
Lastly, this is a great buy-low spot on the Jets, whose last three games have come against the Patriots, Bills and Patriots. New York is also likely a little undervalued at home. Jets have played what has to be the toughest home schedule so far this season, as their 5 homes to this point have been against the Ravens, Bengals, Dolphins, Patriots and Bills. Give me the Jets -4!
|11-27-22||Bengals -1 v. Titans||Top||20-16||Win||100||133 h 59 m||Show|
10* NFL Vegas Insider PLAY OF THE YEAR: Cincinnati Bengals -1
I'll take my chances with the Bengals as a slim 1-point road favorite against the Titans. You would expect Tennessee to be favored in this one, given the Titans are 7-1 SU and 8-0 ATS over their last 8 games. The betting public has caught on to this team and now everyone is looking to play Tennessee in this matchup.
It's a big reason why I'm loading up on the Bengals. The books know what they are doing with this line and this is a Cincinnati team that has been really good since that 0-2 start. Bengals are 6-2 in their last 8 games, covering the spread in 7 of those. This is also a Bengals team that is dangerously close to having the best record in the AFC, as 3 of their 4 losses have come by a field goal or less.
Their only real bad loss all season was that 13-32 loss at Cleveland a few weeks ago, but that was their first game without Jamar Chase and the offense just looked lost. They put up 42 the following week against the Panther sand then 37 last week against a really good Pittsburgh defense that recently got T.J. Watt.
It's unfortunate Joe Mixon won't be able to play in this game for Cincinnati, but all signs point to the Bengals getting back Chase. Either way, I like Burrow to carve up this soft Titans secondary. I also think it's a good matchup for the Cincinnati defense, as they aren't terrible against the run and without the run game working in full force, this Tennessee offense doesn't have a lot to offer. Give me the Bengals -1!
|11-26-22||Notre Dame +6 v. USC||27-38||Loss||-110||117 h 39 m||Show|
9* NCAAF - Prime Time ATS SLAUGHTER: Notre Dame +6
I'll take my chances with Notre Dame as a 6-point dog against USC on Saturday. I just think there's too much value with the Irish, as I don't think the Trojans should be more than a 3-point favorite here.
I just think this Notre Dame team is really good, but people don't think as highly on them because of those two ugly losses at home to Marshall and Stanford earlier this season. Irish have won 5 straight, which includes a 35-14 beatdown of Clemson. The only game during this win streak decided by fewer than 17 points is a 3-point win over Navy and they had a 35-13 lead at the half in that one.
This defense of the Irish just really seems to step up the bigger the game. They were great in their opener against CJ Stroud and Ohio State and completely shutdown Clemson's offense. It would not surprise me if they made things very difficult on USC's Caleb Williams. If they can get stops, they can win this game, because the Trojans defense isn't very good and has to be a bit worn down after last week's track meet against UCLA that ended 48-45. Give me the Irish +6!
|11-26-22||Minnesota v. Wisconsin -3||Top||23-16||Loss||-110||112 h 30 m||Show|
10* NCAAF Big Ten GAME OF THE YEAR: Wisconsin Badgers -3
I absolutely love the Badgers as a mere 3-point home favorite against the Badgers. Losses to Iowa in the last couple of weeks have really derailed both of these teams chances of making the Big 10 title game.
The big difference is the Badgers loss to the Hawks came a couple weeks ago and the Gophers was last week. They were also much different losses. Iowa really was in control the majority of their game against Wisconsin. Minnesota was tied 10-10 with the Hawks and lost the game on a field goal with less than 30 seconds on the clock.
I think the letdown for Wisconsin came in last week's game against Nebraska, where they barely squeaked out a 15-14 win. With that said, it's not like they didn't outplay the Cornhuskers. Wisconsin outgained Nebraska 318 to 171. I think they will be able to get refocused for this last game, especially given it's their final home of the season, which means senior day.
On the flip side of this, I got a really hard time seeing the Gophers finding a way to find meaning in this game. That loss to Iowa hurt. They had everything to play and now have nothing and to make matter worse they have to go on the road to face a physical Wisconsin team in Madison.
I'm also not really sure what this Minnesota team has done to get as much respect as they do. They are just 3-4 in their last 7 games with their 3 wins coming against Rutgers, Nebraska and Northwestern. Two of which were at home.
It's also a Minnesota offense that needs to be able to run the ball to have success and stopping the run is the strength of this Badgers defense. Give me Wisconsin -3!
|11-26-22||Rutgers +14.5 v. Maryland||0-37||Loss||-110||109 h 16 m||Show|
8* NCAAF - Public Money ATS MASSACRE: Rutgers Scarlet Knights +14.5
I'm going to take Rutgers +14.5 on the road against Maryland. I think we are getting some exceptional value here with the Scarlet Knights catching over two touchdowns. No one is going to want anything to do with this Rutgers team after last week's 55-10 loss at home to Penn State, especially against a Maryland team that took Ohio State down to the wire and easily covered against the Buckeyes as 26.5-point underdogs.
I believe it's created some exceptional value here with the Scarlet Knights. There's a chance I'm dead wrong here and Rutgers is a complete no show, but throwing in the towel is not an option for a coach like Greg Schiano. I really think this Scarlet Knight team is going to show up with a big effort here. Knowing this is the last game of their season and losing the way they did last week, I can't see this team wanting to go out with another ugly loss.
I actually think it's the Terps who are going to have the difficult time getting motivated for this game. They put everything they had into last week's game against Ohio State and they almost pulled off the massive upset. Maryland had the ball near midfield trailing by just 3 with about 6 minutes to play in the 4th quarter and just couldn't make the big play they needed down the stretch to get the win.
I just don't think there's a lot to play for if you are Maryland, as they are already bowl eligible at 6-5. It's not like finishing 7-5 is going to get them to a much better bowl game.
I also think this Rutgers defense will present some challenges for this Maryland offense. When the Terps are at their most dangerous offensively is when Taulia Tagovailoa is slinging it all over the field. Throwing the ball is not exactly something you want to do against this Scarlet Knights defense. Rutgers is only giving up 191 passing yards/game.
I also wonder just how healthy Tagovailoa is coming into this game. He banged his knee on the final play against Ohio State and looked to be really bothered. I know they are saying it's just a bad bruise and he's going to play after practicing, but I got a hard time believing he's going to be 100% for this game.
Let's also not forget that prior to the big game he had against Ohio State, he really struggled the previous two weeks against Penn State and Wisconsin. He completed just 11 of 22 attempts for 74 yards against the Nittany Lions and 10 of 23 for 77 yards against the Badgers.
As long as Rutgers can generate some offense and I believe they will, they should have no problem keeping this within two touchdowns and it wouldn't shock me at all if they won this game outright. Give me the Scarlet Knights +14.5!
|11-25-22||Florida +10 v. Florida State||38-45||Win||100||93 h 16 m||Show|
9* NCAAF Friday Prime Time VEGAS INSIDER: Florida Gators +10
I will gladly take my chances with Florida cathing 10-points on the road against Florida State. I just think this is a few too many for the Gators to be catching in this one. I get that Florida is just 6-5 and are coming off a 7-point loss at Vandy as a 14-point favorite. I just think there's a different level of focus and intensity for Florida when they play the Seminoles. What did that game against the Commodores really mean to the Gators. They were 6-4 going into that game completely out of it in the SEC.
Their 4 previous losses were against Kentucky, Tennessee, LSU and Georgia. The loss to the Wildcats came off that HUGE win over Utah in Week 1 (No one was giving Florida a shot in that game), they lost by just 5 on the road to the Vols and were up early on LSU before losing by just 10.
I think Florida is going to feel disrespected being a 10-point dog here. FSU is a good team, but this is a Gators team that was only a 11-point dog at Tennessee. Yes, the Seminoles have a great early season win (on a neutral field) against LSU, but they were a missed extra point in the final seconds from going to OT and the Tigers had all the momentum. Their next best win is a 35-31 win at Louisville and then either a win at Miami or Syracuse. They lost by 10 at home to Wake Forest, lost to NC State on the road and while they lost by just 6 at home to Clemson, the Tigers led 34-14 going into the 4th quarter of that game.
I really like the Gators to keep this within 10 and I will definitely have some on Florida to win outright. Give me the Gators +10!
|11-25-22||UCLA v. California +10.5||35-28||Win||100||90 h 59 m||Show|
8* NCAAF - Situational ATS SLAUGHTER: Cal Golden Bears +10.5
I'll take my chances with Cal as a 10.5-point home dog against UCLA on Friday. This is just one of those late season games where you got to ignore the stats and just look at the situation. This is an absolute play against spot on UCLA.
It's been a rough couple of weeks for the Bruins. First it was a shocking 28-34 loss at home to Arizona as a 20-point favorite, then came the ultimate dagger last week in their 45-48 loss at home to rival USC. That game against the Trojans was a must-win for UCLA to have a shot at making the Pac-12 title game.
Had the Bruins won that game, UCLA would have been in a 4-way tie for 2nd with USC, Washington and Utah. Which ultimately would have made this a win and get in scenario to the Pac-12 title game, as they would have beat all 3 of the teams they were tied with head-to-head.
It's a very similar scenario to what we saw with Ole Miss last week and why I didn't think twice about taking Arkansas in that game. The only mistake I made was not betting more on that one. It's why you can be assured I'll have some on the Cal money line on top of a big play on the spread.
Lastly, this is not a horrible Cal team. The Golden Bears might be just 4-7, but they a 7-point loss to Notre Dame, 7-point loss to Washington and a 6-point loss to USC. This team had lost 6-straight prior to last week's big win over rival Stanford. i just got to think the Golden Bears are sick of losing and will be motivated despite not being able to win to get to a bowl game. A top 20 opponent on your home field. Give me Cal +10.5!
|11-25-22||NC State +6.5 v. North Carolina||Top||30-27||Win||100||89 h 58 m||Show|
10* NCAAF Rivalry PLAY OF THE MONTH: NC State +6.5
I'll take my chances with NC State as a 6.5-point road dog against in-state rivale North Carolina. I always like to lean towards the dog in these rivalry games and it just so happens this Tar Heels team is one that I'm looking to fade. UNC to me is just way overrated. They are 9-2, but have been very fortunate in close games. Out of their 9 wins, 5 have come by 3-points or less.
This is also a Tar Heels team that the public likes to back because of the great quarterback play they are getting out of Drake Maye. He's special, but he's just one guy. UNC has had to win a lot of close games because their defense can't get stops and that poor defense is why I really like NC State in this matchup.
It's been a rough go for the Wolfpack since losing starting quarterback Devin Leary, but whether it's MJ Morris or Ben Finley, I like this NC State offense to move the ball against this Tar Heels defense.
I also think this Wolfpack defense can get some stops against Maye and company. We saw UNC's offense get shutout in the 2nd half of last week's shocking loss at home to Georgia Tech as Maye really struggled to get going. NC State's defense is really good. They are only giving up 18.7 ppg vs teams that on average score 25.9. Opposing QBs are also completing just 57.5% of their attempts against them. You know they are going play their hearts out in this one against their rivals. Give me the Wolfpack +6.5!
|11-24-22||Patriots +3 v. Vikings||Top||26-33||Loss||-115||69 h 36 m||Show|
10* NFL Non-Conf PLAY OF THE MONTH: New England Patriots +3
I will gladly take my chances with the Patriots as a 3-point road dog against the Vikings. I played against Minnesota last week in their 40-3 loss to the Cowboys and I'm going to play against them against New England for a lot of the same reasons. I just don't think the Vikings are that great of a football team.
Prior to their loss to the Cowboys, the Vikings had won 7 straight games and probably should have lost at least 3 of those, given all 7 of those were decided by one score and several of which they had to rally late for the win.
They haven't really been great on either side of the ball. They come in averaging 22.9 ppg and 338 ypg, which is basically what their opponents give up on average (22.3 ppg and 338 ypg). Defensively they are giving up 389 ypg and 6.2 yards/play vs teams that on average only put up 358 ypg and 5.8 yards/play.
I really have concerns with their offense against a stingy Pats defense. New England doesn't give up much of anything on the ground. The only team to rush for more than 78 yards against them in their last 5 games is the Bears and almost all of that was Justin Fields. As for the passing game, you know Belichick is going to do everything in his power to take Justin Jefferson out of the picture.
Lastly, you simply can't ignore how bad Kirk Cousins has been in prime time games. I just don't think the Vikings can win without him being great, because I think this New England offense will have no problem moving the ball against what I think is a pretty bad Minnesota defense. Give me the Patriots +3!
|11-24-22||Mississippi State +2.5 v. Ole Miss||24-22||Win||100||68 h 24 m||Show|
9* NCAAF - Egg Bowl ATS NO-BRAINER: Mississippi State +2.5
I'll take my chances with Mississippi State as a 2.5-point road dog against Ole Miss on Thanksgiving Day. I faded the Rebels last week as a short road favorite against Arkansas, as I just thought it was a brutal spot for Ole Miss coming off that gut-wrenching loss to Alabama. Not just because it was Alabama, but that loss also put to rest any hope they had of winning the SEC West.
Sometimes losses like that linger for just a week and a team bounces back the following week. Other times, like I think we have here, a loss like that derails a team, especially when it comes late in the year. Not only are they still licking their wounds, but now news has come out that Lane Kiffin is in serious talks about taking over the head coaching vacancy at Auburn. I just can't imagine that news is sitting all that well with this team.
With all that said, it was going to be a tough matchup here for Ole Miss regardless against the Bulldogs. I have to think Mississippi State is going to be pretty pumped up for this game. The Bulldogs are 0-2 in the Egg Bowl under head coach Mike Leach and it's not like they haven't played the Rebels tough in those defeats. In fact, they have outgained the Rebels in both losses under Leach. Give me Mississippi State +2.5!
|11-20-22||Cowboys -1 v. Vikings||Top||40-3||Win||100||73 h 26 m||Show|
10* NFL Situational PLAY OF THE MONTH: Dallas Cowboys -1
I'll take my chances with the Cowboys as a slim 1-point road favorite against the Vikings. This line really says it all. Minnesota is sitting at 8-1, riding a 7-game win streak and fresh off a win over the Bills and yet are a home dog to a Cowboys team that is coming off an ugly loss to the Packers. This line is begging you to take Minnesota, which is why we are doing exactly the opposite and laying it big on Dallas.
I get all wins count the same in the NFL, but there's not a luckier team thru the first 10 weeks of the season than the Vikings. Minnesota could just as easily be coming into this game with a losing record, as there are at least a handful of games that could of went the other way. Just in their last two games they have trailed by double-digits in the 4th quarter.
It's not just the fluke wins and the line that has me betting against the Vikings. I also think this is a brutal spot for Minnesota coming off of that massive and unthinkable OT win over the Bills. It's just not easy bouncing back from an emotional victory like that and on the other side you have a Cowboys team that has to be chomping at the bit after how they blew that game last week against Green Bay. I wouldn't be shocked at all if Dallas ended up winning this game going away. Give me the Cowboys -1!
|11-20-22||Raiders v. Broncos -2.5||22-16||Loss||-120||73 h 16 m||Show|
8* NFL - Sharp Money ATS ANNIHILATOR: Denver Broncos -2.5
I'll take my chances with the Broncos as a slim 2.5-point home favorite against the Raiders. I can't believe I'm playing Denver, as there's not much to like about with how this team has performed in 2022. Russell Wilson just hasn't lived up to the hype at all. That's just it. This is more of a play against the Raiders than it is a play on the Broncos.
Las Vegas is an absolute mess. After last week's 20-25 loss at home to the Colts, who had an ESPN analyst as their interim head coach, the Raiders fell to 2-7 and whatever hope they had of turning this season around and getting back in the playoff picture was completely lost. Just look at how Derek Carr was crying after the game. He knows this season is over and to make matters worse he basically called out some of his teammates for not giving it their all.
I just don't see how the Raiders aren't a bigger dog on the road in this game. As bad as Wilson and the Broncos have been, let's not forget that the one game Russ actually looked like his old self was an earlier matchup against the Raiders.
I also think we saw some promising signs in last week's loss to the Titans. Tennessee is playing as well as any team in the league right now and the Broncos led the majority of that game and outgained the Titans 313-307. They completely shutdown Henry, limiting him to just 53 yards on 19 carries and if you can keep the Raiders from getting their run game going they don't offer much of a threat, especially with Waller and Renfrow sidelined. This is also a Denver defense that has held each of their last 5 opponents under 20 points. Give me the Broncos -2.5!
|11-20-22||Jets v. Patriots -3||3-10||Win||100||70 h 14 m||Show|
9* NFL - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: New England Patriots -3
I'll take my chances with the Patriots as a mere 3-point home favorite against the Jets. I just don't understand the lack of respect for New England in this one. These two teams played back in Week 8 in New York with the Patriots winning that game 22-17. They won that game without the offense being able to get anything going, which I think is why some people are liking the Jets to get their revenge.
Not me, especially not with the horrible passing conditions. It's going to be hard for either team to move the ball thru the air, as winds are expected to be a minimum of 25 mpg with gust pushing 40 mph.
This game is going to come down to who can have more success running the ball. If you remember back to that Week 8 matchup, almost all of New York's offense came thru the air. The Jets had just 51 rushing yards. New England on the other hand had 127.
I just think it really gives a strong edge to the Patriots, especially with the game this time being played in New England. I also feel that while both teams have had two weeks to prepare after a bye week, that's a bigger edge to the Pats, who have the much better coaching staff. Give me New England -3!
|11-20-22||Eagles v. Colts +7||17-16||Win||100||70 h 58 m||Show|
8* NFL Public Money ATS MASSACRE: Indianapolis Colts +7
I'll take my chances with the Colts as a 7-point home dog against the Eagles on Sunday. While everyone was bashing Indy's decision to go out and hire ESPN analyst Jeff Saturday to be their interim head coach, I thought it presented a great spot to back the Colts against the Raiders and Indy delivered in a 25-20 win as a 5-point dog.
I could be stepping in it here with Indy this week against an Eagles team that will be looking to bounce back from their 21-32 upset loss at home to the Commanders on Monday Night Football, which put to rest all the talk about this team going undefeated. So be it. I just think there's too much value to pass up at this price.
It's not as easy as people think for a team to rebound after that first loss to snap a long winning streak. Philly is also in a tough spot here having to play on a short week.
As for Saturday, say what you want about his lack of experience and I'm sure there will be those that point to the fact that it was the Raiders who they beat. I get it, but to me it was more than that. This looked more like the Colts team we expected to see from the start of the year.
Was it just a coincidence that in Saturday's first game as coach, Jonathan Taylor had a monster game with 147 yards on 22 attempts. His first 100+ yard performance since Week 1 against the Texans. Was it also a coincidence that Matt Ryan had one of his cleanest games of the year, getting hit just once the entire game while completing 21 of 28 attempts for 222 yards.
Maybe so, but Saturday was a damn good offensive linemen in his day and he learned how to read defenses from one of the best to ever do it at quarterback in Peyton Manning. If by chance he did figure something out with that offensive line, which was hands down the biggest thing that was holding this team back, the Colts aren't just going to be a great position to cover this spread, I could see them winning this game outright. Give me Indy +7!
|11-19-22||Utah v. Oregon +2||17-20||Win||100||56 h 19 m||Show|
8* NCAAF Late Night ATS SLAUGHTER: Oregon Ducks +2
I'll take my chances with Oregon as a 2-point home dog against Utah. I really like the Ducks to win this game regardless if Bo Nix ends up playing. Though I do feel pretty good about him suiting up. I know the loss last week to Washington as a 12-point favorite doesn't look good, but let's not ignore just how good this Ducks team has looked since that ugly blowout loss to Georgia in the opener. Oregon is still outscoring opponents on average by nearly 17.0 ppg in conference play.
Yes, the Utes have got it going with 4 straight wins, but there's nothing to get excited about with the last two against Stanford and Arizona at home. The other two during this win streak were both games they could have easily lost, as they beat USC 43-42 and Washington State 21-17.
One thing I really like here is the revenge angle for Oregon. If you remember last year, the Utes destroyed the Ducks 38-7 late in the regular-season and then came right back and did it again to them in the Pac-12 title game winning 38-10. This is a game Oregon has had circled on the calendar since the schedule was released and I just don't think they should be a dog in this spot. Give me the Ducks +2!
|11-19-22||USC v. UCLA +3||48-45||Push||0||54 h 55 m||Show|
8* NCAAF - Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR: UCLA Bruins +3
I'll take my chances with UCLA as a 3-point home dog against USC in Saturday's big Pac-12 matchup. The betting public is going to be all over the Trojans at this price, especially with the Bruins coming into this game off that shocking 28-34 home loss to Arizona as a 20-point favorite.
I could be dead wrong here with UCLA, but I just think the bad loss to the Wildcats had a lot to do with this game being on deck for them. You also got to give Arizona credit, as their offense came out firing. I think it's really created some great value with the Bruins in this one, as I think they should 100% be favored to win this game at home.
I've just not been overly impressed with this USC team. Yes, the offense is good, but the defense has been spotty and it's tough to win on the road when you can't get stops in a big game like this. We have seen UCLA step up in very similar spots as a small home dog this season. They beat Washington 40-32 as a 2.5-point dog and the very next week knocked off UTAH 42-32 as a 3.5-point home dog. Give me the Bruins +3!
|11-19-22||Ole Miss v. Arkansas +2.5||27-42||Win||100||53 h 22 m||Show|
9* NCAAF Prime Time ATS SHOCKER: Arkansas Razorbacks +2.5
I'm going to take the Arkansas Razorbacks as a 2.5-point home dog against the No. 14 ranked Ole Miss Rebels. In these final couple weeks of the regular-season, I think you have to focus a little less on stats and records and put a lit more emphasis on the motivational level of teams.
It's 100% why I'm taking Arkansas at what looks to be a bad line against Ole Miss. The spot here simply couldn't be worse for the Rebels. Not only is Ole Miss coming off a monster game against Alabama, which was easily their biggest game on the schedule when it came out, their inability to hold to a 7-point 2nd half lead in a 24-30 loss to the Crimson Tide eliminated any hopes they may have had of making the SEC title game, as that loss punched LSU's ticket to Atlanta in the first week of December.
I just don't see the Rebels being able to pick themselves up off the mat, especially on the road in what is going to be a hostile environment Saturday night under the lights at Razorback Stadium. I'm also not convinced Ole Miss is as good as what people think. A lot of people will want to give them props for playing Alabama tough, but that couldn't have been a worse spot for the Crimson Tide, coming off of that OT loss at LSU which all but ended their playoff hopes.
Some might want to argue that Arkansas could also be poised for a letdown coming off a close 10-13 loss at home to SEC West frontrunner LSU, but this is a pretty big game for the Hogs. Arkansas still needs one more win to become bowl eligible and a road game at Missouri to close out the season is far from a lock. I also think it's a little easier for teams to bounce back off a tough loss when they are playing at home in prime time. Give me the Razorbacks +2.5!
|11-19-22||Wisconsin -10 v. Nebraska||15-14||Loss||-110||46 h 33 m||Show|
8* NCAAF No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: Wisconsin Badgers -10
I'll take my chances with the Badgers as a 10-point road favorite against Nebraska. I don't see the Cornhuskers putting up much of a fight in this one. With last week's 3-34 loss at Michigan, Nebraska has no shot at being bowl eligible. On the flip side of this, Wisconsin is sitting at 5-5 and still needing one more win to make sure they get a bowl invite.
I think there's some value here with the Badgers after last week's 10-24 loss at Iowa. The score makes it look like Wisconsin was outmatched. That wasn't the case. In fact, they outgained the Hawkeyes 227-146. Iowa has scoring drives of 17, 2, 18 and 27 yards.
Yes, the offense for Wisconsin wasn't very good, but expect them to be much better on that side of the ball against a bad Nebraska defense. The Cornhuskers are giving up 29.9 ppg and 439 ypg. They are also not good at stopping the run, which is the one thing you have to be able to do to slow this Wisconsin offense down. Nebraska is giving up 192 rush yards/game and 4.7 yards/carry.
On the flip side of the ball, this Wisconsin defense is really good and have really played well when facing some of the bad offenses in the Big 10. This Nebraska offense is not good. The Cornhuskers have scored a whopping 25 points combined over their last 3 games. I just don't think it's asking a lot for Wisconsin to win here by double-digits. Give me the Badgers -10!
|11-19-22||Illinois +18 v. Michigan||Top||17-19||Win||100||46 h 9 m||Show|
10* NCAAF - Vegas Insider PLAY OF THE MONTH: Illinois Fighting Illini +18
I love the Fighting Illini as 18-point dogs against Michigan on Saturday. I just think there's a ton of value with Illinois at this price. Some of the value definitely stems from the fact that the Fighting Illini come into this game off back-to-back upset losses at home. First it was a 15-23 setback against Michigan State as a 16-point favorite and then last week they lost 24-31 to Purdue as a 6-point favorite.
On the flip side, there's no question there's a tax being put on this Michigan team given their perfect record and them having covered their last two games.
Even though Illinois has come back to reality from their great start, which saw them open up the season 7-1, I still think this is a very good football team. I really like how they matchup with Michigan, especially given the less than ideal scoring conditions.
The Fighting Illini feature a very good defense. They come into this game allowing 12.5 ppg, 250 ypg and 4.2 yards/carry. To me they are very similar team to that of Iowa, who only lost by 13 to Michigan earlier this season.
This is also a game that just doesn't figure to see a ton of scoring, which is why I think the 18 is so valuable. I'm not so sure either team will even get into the 20s. Winds are expected to be a constant 15+ mph with gusts pushing 30 mph. The wind chill for this game will be in the teens.
On top of all that, Michigan just so happens to have their biggest game of the season looming next week with a road game against Ohio State, which many believe is going to be a playoff elimination game. All the Wolverines care about is getting out of this game with a win, where Illinois has nothing to lose and will be out to make a massive statement. Give me the Fighting Illini +18!
|11-19-22||TCU v. Baylor +2.5||Top||29-28||Win||100||46 h 38 m||Show|
10* NCAAF Underdog PLAY OF THE MONTH: Baylor +2.5
I'll take my chances with Baylor as a 2.5-point home dog against undefeated and No. 4 ranked TCU. I will say that I was really impressed with the Horned Frogs in last week's win over Texas. It was one of the few times they didn't have to have some massive rally late to sneak out a win.
However, that performance is not going to be enough to keep me from betting against them again this week. The line here really says it all. No one is going to want anything to do with betting Baylor in this game. Not only do you have TCU undefeated and in the 4-team playoff, but the Bears are coming off an ugly 3-31 loss at home to K-State as a short 2.5-point favorite. This line screams to back the Horned Frogs laying less than a field goal, which is exactly why I'm not just taking the points with Baylor but loading up on this one. Give me the Bears +2.5!
|11-17-22||Titans +3.5 v. Packers||Top||27-17||Win||100||10 h 41 m||Show|
10* NFL Titans/Packers TNF VEGAS INSIDER: Tennessee Titans +3.5
I'll take my chances with the Titans as a 3.5-point road dog against the Packers on Thursday Night Football to kickoff Week 11. I'm just not ready to buy Green Bay as a team that has figured it out. I think we are seeing a big overreaction to the Packers 31-28 OT win over the Cowboys in Week 10.
Great win, but let's not forget the Packers trailed 14-28 in the 4th quarter of that game. They also had just 186 total yards with less than 3 minutes to play in the 3rd quarter. Yes, rookie wide out Christian Watson had a bit of a breakout game with 3 TD catches, but he only caught 4 passes the entire game.
This is still a Packers offense that needs to be able to run the football to have success and the Titans aren't exactly the defense you want to try and run against. Tennessee is No. 2 in the NFL, giving up just 85.1 yards/game and 3.9 yards/carry.
On the flip side of this, we all know the Titans offense goes with Derrick Henry and this is not a great Packers run D. Green Bay is 26th in the NFL giving up 140.6 rush yards/game.
This is also a Tennessee team that seems to play their best in big games like this. We saw it a couple weeks ago in there near upset of the Chiefs on Sunday Night Football. Titans are also an incredible 20-7 ATS as a dog of 3 or more since he became their head coach. Give me Tennessee +3.5!
|11-17-22||SMU v. Tulane -3||24-59||Win||100||9 h 41 m||Show|
8* NCAAF Thursday Night ATS MASSACRE: Tulane Green Wave -3
I'll take my chances with Tulane as a mere 3-point home favorite against SMU in Thursday's only college football game out of the American Athletic. I think we are getting a very favorable price here with the Green Wave, who are in a prime bounce back spot after last week's 31-38 upset loss at home to UCF. I also think we are seeing SMU come into this game getting a little too much love having covered their last 4.
One big thing to note about Tulane's poor showing last week against the Knights is they just didn't have an answer for UCF dual threat QB John Rhys Plumlee on the ground. Plumlee racked up 176 rushing yards on just 18 attempts and the Knights went on to pile on 336 rushing yards.
This is a much better matchup for the Green Wave defense. SMU has a great QB of their own in Tanner Mordecai, but he's more of a pure pocket passer. Mordecai has just 105 rushing yards on the season.
The Mustangs offense really lives on big plays in the passing game, which plays right into the strength of the Tulane defense, which is 18th best in the country in limiting explosive pass plays. I also don't think it's going to be ideal passing conditions. While temps are expected in the low 50s to high 40s, wind chills will be in the high 30s with close to 15 mph wind and a chance of rain.
The other big thing here is this SMU defense is one of the worst in the country. The Mustangs come in giving up 32.6 ppg, 446 yards/game and 6.0 yards/play. Tulane is known more for their defense, but are scoring a healthy 32.7 ppg with 416 ypg and 6.0 yards/play. Give me the Green Wave -3!
|11-16-22||Miami-OH +1.5 v. Northern Illinois||29-23||Win||100||10 h 59 m||Show|
9* NCAAF Wednesday MACtion ATS SLAUGHTER: Miami (OH) +1.5
I'll take my chances with Miami (OH) as a 1.5-point road dog against Northern Illinois. I really think the Redhawks should be favored in this one and I'm shocked the majority of the tickets are coming in on the Huskies in this one.
Northern Illinois is way down this year. The Huskies are just 3-7 thru their first 10 games. They have little to nothing to play for with no shot at bowl eligibility. Miami (OH) has lost 3 of their last 4, but are 4-6 and still in a position to where they can win their last two games to get to bowl eligibility.
It's also a great matchup for the Redhawks. Miami (OH) has a big time talent at quarterback in Brett Gabbert, who just recently returned from injury. He had one of his best games last time out against a very good Ohio team. He now faces an awful Northern Illinois defense that ranks 114th against the pass.
Huskies are down their starting quarterback Rocky Lombardi and there's been a pretty significant drop off from him to the backups. This is also a Northern Illinois team that wants to run at all costs and is facing a Redhawks defense that has been the best in the MAC at stopping the run. Miami (OH) is giving up just 116 rush yards/game and a mere 3.3 yards/carry. Give me the Redhawks +1.5!
|11-15-22||Bowling Green +16.5 v. Toledo||42-35||Win||100||10 h 40 m||Show|
8* NCAAF - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE: Bowling Green Falcons +16.5
I'll take my chances with Bowling Green as a 16.5-point road dog against Toledo in Tuesday's MAC action. This might seem like a fair price given how bad the Falcons looked in last Wednesday's 6-40 loss to Kent State as a mere 2.5-point home dog, but let's not forget that Bowling Green had won 3 straight prior to that loss.
I also think it's a great spot to fade Toledo. The Rockets are coming off a monster game at home last week against Ball State, which was essentially for first place in the MAC West. Toledo was able to score late to sneak out a 28-21 win, which secured them a spot in the MAC Championship Game in a couple weeks. So while it is their final home game of the season, there's no real incentive here for the Rockets to lay it all on the line against the Falcons.
It's the exact opposite for Bowling Green, who comes in at 5-5, still needing 1 more win to become bowl eligible. With a road game against Ohio the only other game left on the schedule, this has to feel like a must-win for the Falcons. Not saying they pull off the upset, but I like them to keep this within two touchdowns. Give me Bowling Green +16.5!
|11-13-22||Colts +5 v. Raiders||25-20||Win||100||72 h 3 m||Show|
8* NFL - Public Money ATS MASSACRE: Indianapolis Colts +5
I'm going to take my chances with the Colts as a 5-point road dog against the Raiders. I could be dead wrong here, but I just can't help myself but to take the points with Indy in this game. There's so much negativity going on with the Colts right now, as everyone thinks they are nuts for hiring Jeff Saturday as their interim head coach.
I just don't think it's as big a deal as what it's being made out to be. How much worse can it really get with Indy? Unless there's some behind the scenes initiative to tank for a better draft pick, I actually think we are going to get one of the best efforts of the season from Indy. I think a coaching change adds a sense of urgency across the board and this Colts defense, which has been playing really well, should bring their "A" game in this one.
As for the offense. I don't know if Saturday can really do a lot given how bad the offensive line is, but if there's a guy that can maybe work some magic with an offensive line, it might be him. He was an outstanding center, who learned how to decipher defenses from one of the best to ever do it in Peyton Manning.
Lastly, this Raiders team is an absolute dumpster fire right now. They just put Waller and Renfroe on IR and had one of their better linebackers retire midseason. If anyone isn't deserving of being a head coach it's Josh McDaniels. I just don't think there's a lot of fight left in this Raiders team and wouldn't be shocked at all if Indy won this game rather convincingly. Give me the Colts +5!
|11-13-22||Saints v. Steelers +1.5||10-20||Win||100||71 h 29 m||Show|
9* NFL - Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR: Pittsburgh Steelers +1.5
I'll take the Pittsburgh Steelers as a 1.5-point home dog against the New Orleans Saints. I'm a little bit surprised the Steelers are a home dog in this one. I get Pittsburgh is just 1-6 in their last 7 games, but it's not like New Orleans has been that much better. The Saints are 2-6 in their last 8 and 3-6 ATS for the season. New Orleans has also not won a road game since their 27-26 win at Atlanta in Week 1, which they had no business winning, as they were down by as many as 16 in the 4th quarter.
They will be at a huge rest disadvantage in this game, as they will be on a short week after playing the Ravens on MNF in Week 9, while Pittsburgh hasn't played in two weeks after their bye in Week 9.
Pittsburgh is also expected to getting back their best player in defensive end T.J. Watt. The record is night and day with Watt on the field for the Steelers. The one game he played this year, they went on the road and beat the Bengals as a 7-point dog.
They are also expected to get back safety Damontae Kazee, who they signed in free agency and was a standout in training camp. Kazee hasn't played a game since injuring his forearm in the final preseason game. Corner Levi Wallace should also be back from a shoulder injury and newly acquired corner William Jackson III could make his debut with the team.
I think with just Watt coming back this Steelers defense quickly becomes one of the Top 5 defensive teams in the league. I also look at how much trouble the Saints offensive line had blocking an aging Justin Houston last week. No way are they going to be able to keep Watt out of their backfield.
As for the Steelers offense, I know it's not been anything to write home about this year. However, it's also not been a very favorable slate in terms of the caliber of defenses played. Pittsburgh has faced one team, the Dolphins, who rank outside the Top 15 in total defense.
Just to give you a comparison, the Saints have played 7 of their 9 games against teams who rank 20th or worse in total defense, 6 of which rank in the bottom 10.
New Orleans has allowed 27 or more points in 5 of their last 6 games. The only exception being the Raiders, who they shutout a couple weeks ago. The wrong team is favored in this game. Give me the Steelers +1.5!
|11-13-22||Broncos v. Titans -1.5||10-17||Win||100||69 h 57 m||Show|
9* NFL No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: Tennessee Titans -1.5
I will take my chances with the Titans as a mere 1.5-point home favorite against the Broncos. I think there's a perception here that Tennessee is going to suffer a letdown coming off that emotional loss to the Chiefs on Sunday Night Football in Week 10. Plus, there's the perception that Denver has a big edge here coming off of their bye week.
I'm just not buying it. I just don't see how this Denver offense is going to be able to get anything going against this Tennessee defense. It's crazy how little respect this Titans team has gotten, despite what they have accomplished over the last few seasons under Vrable.
I don't think Denver is going to be able to stop Henry, which is the one thing you have to be able to do if you are going to slow down Tennessee's offense. I also have some concerns with the mindset of this Broncos defense after the team traded away star pass rusher Chubb. Give me the Titans -1.5!
|11-13-22||Seahawks +3 v. Bucs||16-21||Loss||-120||65 h 23 m||Show|
8* NFL Seahawks/Bucs Early Bird VEGAS INSIDER: Seattle Seahawks +3
I'll take my chances with the Seahawks as a 3-point underdog against the Bucs in Sunday's early game in Munich. I think the wrong team is favored in this one. I backed the Bucs and got the win last week against the Rams, but that was an extremely fortunate win and cover for Tampa Bay.
It just isn't getting any better for Tom Brady and the Bucs offense. Their inability to run the football and poor offensive line play continues to be a major problem. Now they face a Seattle defense that has went from being one of the worst defenses in the league to a very competent team on that side of the ball. In their last 4 games the Seahawks have held the Cardinals to 9, Chargers to 23, Giants to 13 and the Cardinals to 13.
On the flip side, Geno Smith and the Seattle offense continue to impress. Seahawks have scored 27 or more points in 5 of their last 6 games. I know the numbers look good for Tampa Bay's defense, but this is not as good a unit as people think. They have really benefited lately by playing a bunch of bad offenses. Give me the Seahawks +3!
|11-12-22||Texas A&M v. Auburn -1||10-13||Win||100||52 h 42 m||Show|
8* NCAAF No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: Auburn Tigers -1
I'll take my chances with Auburn as a mere 1-point home favorite against Texas A&M. I played on the Tigers last week as a 13-point road dog against Mississippi State. They ended up losing that game 33-39 in OT. It was an inspired effort by Auburn, especially given they went down 17-0 and trailed 24-6 at the half.
Some might say they are due for a letdown after laying it all the line in the first game after Harsin was fired. That might be the case and if so, we probably won't get there with the Tigers in this one. However, I don't see this team not showing up with a big effort in this game. I really think interim head coach Cadillac Williams has really lit a fire under this team and last week's rally will have them motivated to start stronger. It's also a game under the lights on a Saturday night, which is a big deal to these kids and also tends to lead to some pretty wild crowds.
We are also betting on Auburn against an absolute dumpster fire in Texas A&M. I think what little fight was left in this Aggies team was sucked dry a couple of weeks ago in their heartbreaking 28-31 loss at home to Ole Miss. They certainly didn't look like a team willing to fight in last week's 17-point home loss to Florida, getting outscored 21-0 in the 2nd half.
What's the incentive for Texas A&M at this point in the season. Sure they need to win out to be bowl eligible, but a lot of these big programs would rather miss out on a bowl game than go to some crappy bowl against another bad team and have to keep practicing for another month. Give me Auburn -1!
|11-12-22||North Carolina v. Wake Forest -3.5||Top||36-34||Loss||-110||52 h 1 m||Show|
10* NCAAF ACC PLAY OF THE MONTH: Wake Forest Demon Deacons -3.5
I really like Wake Forest as a 3.5-point home favorite against North Carolina. I'm sure a lot of people will be scratching their heads at this line, as the Tar Heels come into this game with a 8-1 record and are ranked No. 15 in the country. No way they should be getting over a field goal against an unranked Demon Deacons team. I think it's more than warranted and probably should be more.
I just don't think the Tar Heels are anywhere close to as good as what people think. Yes, they have a great offense and a really talented QB in Drake Maye, but they have played a very easy schedule and their defense isn't very good.
In their 4 non-conference games they played an FCS school (FAMU) and two Sun Belt teams that gave them all they could handle. They only beat App State by 2, needing all 63 points the offense put up and beat Georgia State by just 7. They also played a Notre Dame team at home and lost to the Irish 32-45.
Their 5-0 in ACC play, but the only win against a team that currently has a winning record in ACC play is against Duke and they only won that game 38-35, needing a last second TD to win.
I know Wake Forest is just 2-3 in conference play, but they don't have all those bad Coastal teams on their schedule. Their 3 losses are to Clemson, Louisville and NC State. The latter two coming in their last 2 games on the road.
I think getting back home and UNC coming into this game getting all the hype makes this the perfect spot to jump on the Demon Deacons. I think Sam Hartman and that WF offense are going to have a field day in this game. I also think their defense might surprise some people with how well they defend Maye and that explosive Tar Heels pass attack. Give me the Demon Deacons -3.5!
|11-12-22||Georgia v. Mississippi State +16.5||45-19||Loss||-110||54 h 46 m||Show|
9* NCAAF - Sharp Money ATS SLAUGHTER: Mississippi State Bulldogs +16.5
I'll take my chances with Mississippi State catching 16.5-points at home against No. 1 ranked Georgia. I think there's a lot to like about the Bulldogs in this matchup, especially at this price. I think a lot of people are once again convinced Georgia is the best team in the country after last week's convincing win over then No. 1 ranked Tennessee. That kind of hype is going to come with a tax in the betting market.
I also think people are slow to want to back Mississippi State in this game given how bad they looked a few weeks back in their 6-30 loss at Alabama. The biggest thing you got to keep in mind with that bad showing against the Crimson Tide is the game was played in Alabama and on top of that was a prime time night game.
This is just not a great road team. Bulldogs have also lost at LSU 31-16 and at Kentucky 27-17. It's a different story at home, where they are a perfect 5-0 this year. It's not easy winning on the road in the SEC and Starkville is no easy place to play under the lights on a Saturday night. This crowd is going to be electric to try and get their team to upset the Bulldogs.
This will also be just the second true road game for Georgia since the middle of September. The only other true road game during this stretch was at Missouri and if you remember they did play well having to rally to beat the Tigers 26-22.
You also got to factor in the potential letdown for Georgia coming off that big game against the Volunteers. That win all but locked them into the SEC title game, as they now hold the tie-breaker over Tennessee for the spot in the SEC East. I get no loss is a good loss in college football with how little of margin for error these teams have to make the playoffs, but a loss would not end their season. I just think it's the perfect flat spot for the Bulldogs and it's not like we can't have them win the game. Give me the Bulldogs +16.5!
|11-12-22||Kansas v. Texas Tech -3.5||28-43||Win||100||51 h 19 m||Show|
8* NCAAF Situational ATS NO-BRAINER: Texas Tech Red Raiders -3.5
I'll take my chances with the Red Raiders as a 3.5-point home favorite against Kansas. I'm still trying to process how Texas Tech failed to cover for me last week. We played the Red Raiders as a 9-point road dog against TCU. Texas Tech went into the 4th quarter of that game leading 17-13 with TCU's only TD in the game coming on a 82-yard fumble return for a score. In the blink of an eye the Horned Frogs went from trailing to leading 34-17 and would go on to win the game 34-24.
I just feel that loss combined with Kansas coming off an impressive 37-16 win at home over Oklahoma State, we are getting a really good price on the Red Raiders in this one. Kansas was the talk of college football with their 5-0 start, but they had lost 3 in a row before last week's win over the Cowboys and let's not forget Oklahoma State didn't have starting quarterback Spencer Sanders.
They were also very fortunate to only give up 16 points in that game, as the Cowboys had over 400 yards of total offense. Keep in mind the previous 3 games during the losing streak, KU had given up 35 or more points.
Texas Tech's offense has been held in check the last couple of weeks against Baylor and TCU, but are poised to have a big game here. The Jayhawks are not good at defending teams who can attack their secondary and the passing game is what makes this Red Raiders offense go.
Not saying the Texas Tech defense will shutdown a good Kansas offense, I just don't think the Jayhawks will be able to do enough offensively to keep it within the number. Give me Texas Tech -3.5!
|11-12-22||Wisconsin v. Iowa||10-24||Loss||-110||48 h 37 m||Show|
9* NCAAF Smart Money VEGAS INSIDER: Wisconsin Badgers PK
I paid the price for betting against the Hawkeyes last week with Purdue, as Iowa really dominated that game from the start and would cruise to a 24-3 win. It's not going to stop me from taking the Badgers at a pick'em in Iowa City on Saturday.
I'm just not convinced this Iowa offense has figured out their run game. Yes, they have rushed for 173 yards and 184 yards in their last two games against Northwestern and Purdue, but even with those strong showings they come into this game averaging just 103 rushing yards/game and 3.2 yards/carry.
They are not going to have the same advantage in the trenches on offense against the Badgers as they did against the Wildcats and Boilermakers. This Wisconsin defense is only giving up 20.6 ppg, 327 ypg and 4.1 yards/play and that's with them giving up 52 points and 539 yards in one game against Ohio State.
I understand that this isn't an ideal matchup for the Badgers offense either, as they are limited on that side of the ball and trying to run the ball against this Iowa defense plays right into their strength. Still I think they will have the easier time of the two teams sustaining drives.
It's also historically been good to fade Iowa after two great showings. They are just 4-12 ATS under Ferentz after leading in their previous 2 games by 14+points at the half. Hawkeyes are also just 12-25 (32%) ATS in their last 37 home games after holding each of their previous 2 opponents to 7 or fewer points in the 1st half. Give me Wisconsin PK!
|11-11-22||East Carolina +5.5 v. Cincinnati||25-27||Win||100||26 h 25 m||Show|
9* NCAAF Friday Night ATS SLAUGHTER: East Carolina +5.5
I'll take my chances with the Pirates as a 5.5-point road dog against Cincinnati. I just think the market is off on these two teams, which has created the value here with East Carolina. The Pirates have really impressed me in 2022. They are 6-3 and come in having won their last 3. They could also easily be 8-1, as they should have beat NC State at home in their opener and lost by just 3-points at home to Navy. They are 6-3 ATS as well, which shows just how undervalued they have been.
As for Cincinnati, you just knew this team was going to struggle to cover the numbers they were going to be asked to lay simply based on what this program was able to accomplish last year going undefeated and getting to playoffs, especially with all they lost. The Bearcats are just 2-6-1 ATS so far and have failed to cover the number in each of their last 5 games (0-4-1).
I also look at the common opponents played and it too screams too many points for Cincinnati be laying. These two teams have played 3 common opponents. While both have gone 2-1 in those games, ECU is outscoring those teams on average by 13.7 ppg. Cincinnati is only outscoring them by 3.3 ppg. The defensive numbers being almost identical. Offense is where ECU really seems to have an edge and I think it's good enough to not only get them a cover but an outright win. Give me the Pirates +5.5!
|11-10-22||Falcons v. Panthers +2.5||15-25||Win||100||9 h 12 m||Show|
9* NFL Thursday Night Football VEGAS INSIDER: Carolina Panthers +2.5
I'll take my chances with the Panthers as a 2.5-point home dog against the Falcons on Thursday Night Football. I'm not so sure the right team is favored in this game. It just feels like this line is a big overreaction to what we saw last week out of this Carolina team. The Panthers haven't been any good, but last week's 21-42 loss to the Bengals was arguably their worst showing of the season. The final score doesn't even do justice to how bad Carolina played, as Cincinnati had 35-0 lead at the half.
It was so bad that it's like everyone is ignoring how the game played out between these two teams in Atlanta a couple of weeks ago. A game Carolina ended up losing 34-37 in OT, yet would have won in regulation had D.J. Moore not took off his helmet and forced the PAT to be pushed back 15 yards (missed). They also had a 32-yard missed field goal in OT that would have won the game.
NFL teams have a way of responding in a big way after an embarrassing loss like that and I think it definitely helps this game being in prime time, as that will also get them excited to play when there's really not much to play for.
One last thing, I think this could be a tough spot for Atlanta. Not just playing on the road on just 3 days of rest, but coming off that gut-wrenching loss to the Chargers, where they forced a fumble late that looked to set them up for a game-winning field goal, only to have the player re-fumble the ball back to the Chargers, which set LA up for the game-winning field goal. Give me the Panthers +2.5!
|11-06-22||Rams v. Bucs -2.5||Top||13-16||Win||100||74 h 49 m||Show|
10* NFC PLAY OF THE MONTH: Tampa Bay Bucs -2.5
I'll take my chances with the Buccaneers as a slim 2.5-point home favorite against the Rams. I just feel like this is the ultimate buy-low spot on Tom Brady and the Bucs. Tampa Bay has went from a team the public would bet blindly no matter what the spread was, to a team they want absolutely nothing to do with. Hard to blame them, given the Bucs are a dismal 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games.
Maybe I'm stepping in it with Brady and the Bucs on Sunday, but to me there's so much value here with Tampa Bay. While some teams might be already looking to next year after a 3-5, everything is still right in front of the Bucs, as they have lucked out with how bad the other 3 teams in the NFC South are. The Falcons currently lead this division with a 4-4 record and I don't see Atlanta being the team on top when it's all said and done.
I'm not sure Brady and the Bucs offense are going to ever end up developing into the juggernaut we saw his first two years with Tampa Bay, but this is not a game or spread where I think the offense has to be great for them to cover.
The Rams have been just as disappointing as the Bucs in terms of how their offense has performed vs expectations. LA comes into this game averaging just 16.9 ppg and 297 yards/game which is noticeably worse than the 18.3 ppg and 333 ypg the Bucs are averaging.
The only real offensive weapon the Rams have had is wide out Cooper Kupp, but he injured his ankle on the final play in last week's loss to the 49ers. It does appear that Kupp is going to try to give it a go, but I can't imagine he's going to be anywhere close to 100% and if he's not dominating, I just don't know where the offense comes from. It's now or never for the Bucs and I believe they get the job done. Give me Tampa Bay -2.5!
|11-06-22||Panthers +7.5 v. Bengals||21-42||Loss||-110||66 h 48 m||Show|
9* NFL Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MITAKE: Carolina Panthers +7.5
I'll take my chances with the Panthers catching 7.5-points on the road against the Bengals. Carolina has looked like a different team since trading away McCaffrey and shockingly they have really improved on the ground since McCaffrey left. In the two games without him they have rushed for 173 yards against Tampa Bay and 169 yards against the Falcons. They should be able to keep that going against a Bengals defense that is giving up 126 rush yards/game and 4.4 yards/carry.
The other big thing for me is the Bengals are being way overvalued without their top offensive weapon in Jamar Chase. In their first game without Chase, Cincinnati managed just 13 points and 229 yards of total offense against the Browns last week. Joe Burrow, who had just thrown for 459 yards the previous game against the Falcons, threw for just 193. Some of that was the Bengals offensive line not being able to keep the Browns out of the backfield, but I expect more of that against Brian Burns and the Panthers defensive front. I just think given the situation, 7.5 points is way too many. Give me Carolina +7.5!
|11-06-22||Raiders -1.5 v. Jaguars||20-27||Loss||-110||66 h 47 m||Show|
8* NFL Situational ATS SLAUGHTER: Las Vegas Raiders -1.5
I'll take my chances with the Raiders as a slim 1.5-point road favorite against the Jaguars in Week 9. The line here really says it all, as we have Las Vegas laying points on the road after they just had arguably the worst showing of any team all season in last week's 24-0 loss at New Orleans. The Raiders didn't even get the ball past midfield until the final minutes of the 4th quarter.
The key thing to note with that showing is Las Vegas was dealing with the flu bug and it's really the only thing that could explain that pitiful performance. The only other thing is if this team has just thrown in the towel on this season, but I can't see that being the case this early on. My money is on the Raiders to put that ugly showing behind them with one of their best showings of the season Sunday against a Jags team that just keeps finding ways to lose. Since their big 38-10 upset win at the Chargers back in Week 3, Jacksonville has proceeded to lose 6 straight games.
In terms of talent, I don't think this one is that close. The Raiders are as talented of a 2-win team as you will find going into Week 9 of a season. I just trust them to find a way to win this game to save their season. Give me Las Vegas -1.5!
|11-05-22||Auburn +13 v. Mississippi State||33-39||Win||100||52 h 25 m||Show|
8* NCAAF - Prime Time ATS SHOCKER: Auburn Tigers +13
I'll take my chances with Auburn catching 13 on the road against Mississippi State. This is just one of my favorite situational handicaps in really all sports. That's backing the team who leading up to the game, fired their head coach.
That's the storyline for Auburn in this one. Enough was enough, Brian Harsin was fired after last week's 27-41 loss at home to Arkansas. Sometimes a coaches style or personality just isn't a good fit and to me it felt like Harsin had lost the team maybe even before the season started.
There's already talk about how the energy level is up with the team since Harsin was let go. The interim is former Auburn star running back Carnell Williams. A.K.A. as Cadillac. Tell me the kids aren't going to be fired up to play for him.
Even with the Bulldogs coming off of a bye, I think Auburn will be the more motivated team in this one. Keep in mind Mississippi State lost a lot of their momentum leading into the bye. There was a buzz forming with this team after their 5-1 start and they went into the bye off back-to-back road losses to Kentucky and Alabama.
Their only two wins in conference play have come against Arkansas, who is also way down, and Texas A&M, who was playing awful football at that time.
For as bad as everyone wants to make Auburn out to be, they have really been competitive in SEC play outside of a road game against Georgia. They only lost by 4 at home to LSU, by 14 at Ole Miss and by 14 to Arkansas. I like them to keep it close and maybe even win outright. Give me the Tigers +13!
|11-05-22||Oklahoma State v. Kansas||Top||16-37||Win||100||49 h 33 m||Show|
10* NCAAF - Big 12 PLAY OF THE MONTH: Kansas Jayhawks PK
I love Kansas as a pick'em at home against Oklahoma State on Saturday. There are just no easy games on the schedule in the Big 12. I can't remember a time it's been this even across the board in this conference in football.
A big reason for that is the resurgent Jayhawks, who are off to a 5-3 start and figure to remain on an upward trajectory as long as Lance Leipold remains their head coach. I know Kansas has lost their last 3 games after that improbable 5-0 start, but one of those was a 7-point loss to TCU, who is the only undefeated team in the conference. The other two were road games against Oklahoma and Baylor.
They also lost starting QB Jalon Daniels in the loss to TCU and he didn't play at all in the losses to the Sooners or Bears. He's back practicing with the team and all signs point to him returning. With that said, I still like KU if he were to sit, as backup Jason Bean has been every bit as good as Daniels throwing the ball. He's just not as big of a threat on the ground.
This is also a Kansas team that has had two weeks to prepare for this game coming off a bye week. The Cowboys on the other hand are probably still trying to figure out what happened in last weeks 0-48 loss at K-State. I think the writing has been on the wall with this team not being as good as their record, as they have several close wins where they had to rally from behind.
On top of that, it's no sure thing the Cowboys have starting quarterback, who was roughed up in garbage time in the loss to the Wildcats. Give me the Jayhawks Pk!
|11-05-22||Syracuse v. Pittsburgh -3.5||9-19||Win||100||48 h 27 m||Show|
8* NCAAF No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: Pittsburgh Panthers -3.5
I'll take my chances with Pitt as a 3.5-point home favorite against the Orange. This is a line that simply doesn't look right. Syracuse is 6-2 and while they have lost their last two games, those losses did come to Clemson and Notre Dame. Pitt on the other hand is just 4-4 and come in having lost 3 of their last 4 and failed to cover in 4 of their last 5. Keep in mind Syracuse is still the No. 20 ranked team in the country.
It would be one thing if this was closer to a pick'em. Everyone is going to be looking to back Syracuse catching a field goal plus the hook. Maybe the books are just overvaluing Pitt and we are stepping in it with the Panthers with this play, but I just don't think that's the case, especially this late into the season. The line to me, screams that the books are taking a pretty firm stance on the Panthers not just winning this game but winning it going away.
I do question the mindset of this Syracuse team. They had that 6-0 start and got all these crazy thoughts they could win the ACC. Then they jump out that big lead on the road against Clemson and aren't able to finish the job. They follow that up with a bad showing at home against Notre Dame. Would it really be all surprising to see their woes carry over to the road against a Pitt team that I think is hungry for a win and a bit undervalued after playing two of the better ACC teams on the road in Louisville and UNC.
It's also not easy moving the ball on this Panthers defense. Pitt is only giving up 352 yards/game and 5.4 yards/play. They are allowing 3.9 yards/rush and a mere 56.7% completion rate. As long as the offense doesn't turn it over a bunch, there's every reason to think they win here by at least a touchdown. Give me the Panthers -3.5!
|11-05-22||West Virginia v. Iowa State -7||14-31||Win||100||48 h 26 m||Show|
9* NCAAF - Situational ATS SLAUGHTER: Iowa State Cyclones -7
I will take my chances with Iowa State as a 7-point home favorite against West Virginia. A lot of people might be scratching their heads to why the Cyclones are laying a full touchdown in this game. ISU comes into this game having lost their last 5 and in the process have struggled to get their offense going.
While I do think the Cyclones will be better offensively than they have been, I'm not expecting them to go off for 40+ points. I think they win here by more than a touchdown because of their defense. Because this team has struggled to win games, I think people overlook just how good this ISU defense has been. The Cyclones come into this game giving up just 16.6 ppg and 296 ypg, which becomes even more impressive when you factor in their opponents on average are scoring 29.6 ppg and putting up 399 yards of total offense.
Just to put that in comparison, WV is allowing 34.6 ppg, 418 ypg and 6.4 yards/play. These two teams have also played 3 common opponents (Kansas, Texas and Baylor) and in those games the Mountaineers are giving up 44.3 ppg, 485.7 ypg and 7.5 yards/play. ISU against those same 3 teams are allowing 23.0 ppg, 313.7 ypg and 5.2 yards/play.
It's hard to win on the road with a bad defense when your offense isn't able to sustain drives. We kind of seen that with WV in their two Big 12 road games, where they lost 20-38 to Texas and 10-48 at Texas Tech. I expect more of the same problems for the Mountaineers in this one. Give me Iowa State -7!
|11-05-22||Penn State v. Indiana +14||45-14||Loss||-110||48 h 24 m||Show|
8* NCAAF Sharp Money ATS NO-BRAINER: Indiana Hoosiers +14
I'll take my chances with Indiana cashing as a 14-point home dog against Penn State on Saturday. I just feel like this is a few too many points for the Nittany Lions to be laying on the road in this spot. This is a massive letdown spot for Penn State coming off of last week's game against Ohio State. A game they ended up losing 31-44, but had a 21-16 lead with under 10 minutes to play in the 4th quarter.
Having already lost the head-to-head matchups with the Wolverines and Buckeyes, Penn State at 3-2 in Big 10 play is all but out of the picture for winning the East and playing in the Big Ten title game. At this program, that's really their only goal coming into the season and one they had to feel like they had a shot at reaching given their 5-0 start.
I just think it will be tough for Penn State to pick themselves up off of the mat and Indiana is a team that no matter how limited they are on either side of the ball, will give you their best effort. It would be fitting for them to come into this game riding a 5-game losing streak and go out and win the game outright.
They did lose by just 21 at home to Michigan and they have a 5-point loss to Maryland and a 7-point loss on the road to Rutgers. Their defense isn't great, but it's good at stopping the run and if they win up front on that side of the ball, they certainly get off of the field and not let Penn State run up the score. Give me the Hoosiers +14!
|11-05-22||Texas Tech +9 v. TCU||24-34||Loss||-110||45 h 57 m||Show|
9* NCAAF - Public Money ATS MASSACRE: Texas Tech Red Raiders +9
I'll take my chances with Texas Tech as a 9-point road dog against TCU. I really like this Texas Tech team. Even though I lost with them last week in an ugly loss at home to Baylor, I've won more than I've lost backing them this season. Not only that, but I think TCU is a bit overrated right now, at least in the betting market.
Yes the Horned Frogs are 8-0, but it's not been them just dominating their opponents. Their last 4 wins, all conference games, have been decided by 10 points or less. Note that in their two wins by 10 points, they beat K-State 38-28 after trailing 10-28. They scored a garbage TD in the final seconds against WV last week to win that game by 10. TCU also has a 43-40 OT win over Oklahoma State where they trailed by double-digits in the 2nd half. They were also tied with Kansas with less than 5 minutes to play in the 4th quarter.
I just don't think TCU deserves to be laying more than a touchdown in this spot. Prior to last week's loss to Baylor, Texas Tech had outgained each of its previous 7 opponents. I just don't think the Red Raiders showed up to that game against Baylor with the right mindset. The defense didn't play up to their standards and the offense turned it over 4 times. I feel pretty good about this team responding with a much better mindset against TCU, who every team is out to get right now. Give me the Red Raiders +9!
|11-05-22||Iowa v. Purdue -3.5||Top||24-3||Loss||-105||45 h 60 m||Show|
10* NCAAF - Big Ten PLAY OF THE MONTH: Purdue Boilermakers -3.5
I'm going to lay the 3.5-points with Purdue at home against Iowa. Last week I cashed on Iowa -11 at home against Northwestern with one of my biggest bets of the weekend, as they cruised to a 33-13 win. I got no problem turning around and fading the Hawkeyes as a short road dog against the Boilermakers.
The biggest reason I liked Iowa last week, was I loved the matchup for the Hawkeyes. Northwestern not only had a defense they could exploit, but I felt confident that the Wildcats offense would not be able to generate much of anything offensively. It played out even better than I expected with Iowa scoring a season-high 33-points and putting up 393 total yards, including a season-best 173 rushing yards. Northwestern's offense on the other hand managed just 177 total yards and 75 of those came on a garbage TD drive late in the 4th quarter.
One thing I was a bit surprised about was Iowa's decision to stick with Spencer Petras at quarterback. It worked out, as Petras completed 21 of 30 attempts for 220 yards and a score, but I'm not buying for a second that he's magically figured this thing out. He to me is still one of the worst QBs in the country.
I expect him and the Iowa offense to revert right back to what we grew accustomed to seeing this season. Purdue is not going to let them get the run game going. Boilermakers are only giving up 3.6 yards/carry on the season and let's not forget that Iowa had just 154 rushing yards combined in their 3 previous games. I also want to point out that while Purdue secondary has struggled at times this year, opposing QBs are only completing 55.8% of their attempts against them.
On the flip side of the ball, I like Purdue's chances of moving the ball against this stingy Iowa defense. Since Jeff Brohm came to West Lafayette back in 2017, Purdue's offense is averaging 25.6 points/game in 5 matchups with Iowa. That might not seem all that great, but keep in mind Iowa has allowed fewer than 20 ppg on the season in each of those 5 years. Purdue is 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS under Brohm vs Iowa with 3 outright wins as a dog, including last year's 24-7 win as a 12-point road dog.
This could also be an especially painful game for Iowa fans to watch. Purdue has averaged a staggering 310 passing yards/game under Brohm and it seems like it's always one guy that torches him. The last 3 years it was David Bell. This year it figures to be Iowa transfer Charlie Jones, who is 2nd in the country in receptions, 6th in receiving yards and T-4th in receiving TDs.
On top of all that, Purdue has had a full two weeks to prepare for this game coming off of their bye week. Give me the Boilermakers -3.5!
|11-03-22||Eagles v. Texans +13.5||Top||29-17||Win||100||10 h 30 m||Show|
10* NFL Thursday Night Football VEGAS INSIDER: Houston Texans +13.5
I'll take my chances with the Texans as a 13.5-point home dog against the Eagles on Thursday Night Football. As difficult as it may be to back Houston in this game, I just feel like there's too much value to pass up. As good as the Eagles are, it's not easy going on the road and playing up to your true potential in a Thursday game.
The other big concern I have with Philly is the mindstate of this team coming in. It's been a bit of a cakewalk for the Eagles so far in 2022. They are 7-0 SU and 5-2 ATS, coming off a 35-13 win over the Steelers and facing what many feel is the worst team in the league. It's going to be hard for them to take the Texans seriously and for as bad as Houston has been, they have shown they can be competitive. Only game they have lost by more than the number here is a few weeks back against the Raiders and that was a 20-20 game at the half.
Road favorites who are outscoring teams by 10+ points/game and off a win by 10 or more points have gone a mere 17-46 (27%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. On the flip side, Underdogs who have failed to cover 3 of their last 4 and facing an opponent that has covered 3 of their last 4 are 39-12 (76.5%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Give me the Texans +13.5!
|11-03-22||Appalachian State -3 v. Coastal Carolina||28-35||Loss||-107||9 h 46 m||Show|
9* NCAAF Situational ATS SLAUGHTER: Appalachian State -3
I'll take my chances with the Mountaineers as a 3-point road favorite against Coastal Carolina. This is just one of those games where the line screams which side to take. You have a Coastal Carolina team that is 7-1 getting points on their home field against a App State team that is just 5-3 SU and 3-5 ATS. That alone makes this an easy play for me to fade the public dog.
I also feel like there's plenty of reason to like the Mountaineers in this matchup. Appalachian State has really looked good in their last two games, which have followed that ugly 24-36 loss at Texas State where they closed as a 19-point favorite. They crushed Georgia State 42-17 and did the same in a 42-3 win over Robert Morris.
The offense for the Mountaineers looks more like the unit we expected to see all season, as they are back to pounding the rock on the ground with 691 rushing yards in their last 2 games. They will be facing a Chanticleers defense that has underperformed this year. Coastal Carolina is giving up 6.2 yards/play. Grayson McCall and that Chanticleer offense may be able to keep it close early on, but I just don't see their offense being able to keep pace over the course of 60 minutes. Give me the Mountaineers -3!
|11-02-22||Central Michigan v. Northern Illinois -5.5||Top||35-22||Loss||-115||19 h 0 m||Show|
10* NCAAF MAC PLAY OF THE MONTH: Northern Illinois Huskies -5.5
Give me Northern Illinois as a 5.5-point home favorite against Central Michigan. I see a ton of value with the Huskies laying anything less than a touchdown. If you just looked at the records, this might seem like a pretty fair fight, given both teams enter with a 2-6 record. I just don't see these two teams as equals. Northern Illinois is much better than their 2-6 record, while I feel the Chippewas are every bit as bad as their record.
The Huskies have one loss by more than 10 points and that was to Toledo, who has shown to be one of the top teams in the MAC this year. The loss by 10 was to a SEC school in Vanderbilt. Every other loss has been by 1 score, including a mere 8-point loss at Kentucky and 3-point loss at Tulsa. Speaking of road games, it's worth noting Northern Illinois has played just two home games vs FBS schools and those were Vandy and Toledo.
As for Central Michigan, the Chippewas are a complete mess offensively. They lost a ton of talent on the o-line from last year's team to the NFL. They also have suffered injuries at tackle, where they are extremely thin. Chippewas have also lost several skill guys. They had a linebacker playing running back in their last game and he could see snaps here if a couple guys listed as questionable can't play. Northern Illinois for the season is averaging just 380 ypg and 5.1 yards/play. They are averaging 3.7 yards/rush and completing just 57.2% of their pass attempts.
I know Northern Illinois' defense hasn't been great, but this is an offense they should have success against. The d-line should have success against that make-shift Central Michigan line and the other two units feed off the d-line living in the backfield. Give me Northern Illinois -5.5!
|10-31-22||Bengals v. Browns +3.5||Top||13-32||Win||100||31 h 6 m||Show|
10* NFL Monday Night Football VEGAS INSIDER: Cleveland Browns +3.5
I'll take my chances with Cleveland as a 3.5-point home dog against the Bengals. Hard to not like a division home dog in prime time, especially one that I think is fairly evenly matched. The Browns are just 2-5, but could very easily have a winning record. They had that crazy loss to the Jets in Week 2 and then 3 of their other 4 losses have all come by a field goal or less.
The Bengals have got things going after their 0-2 start, but now Joe Burrow is down his biggest weapon in wide out Ja'Maar Chase. Not that the Bengals don't have other quality receivers, Chase is in a different class. He's Burrow's go to guy when things get bad. Chase has 16 more catches, 150 more yards and 3 more TDs than the next best guy.
On the flip side, I like the Browns to be able to run the ball against this Bengals' defense. Cincinnati is giving up 119 ypg and 4.6 yards/carry on the ground. Which spikes to 142 ypg and 5.2 yards/carry on the road. Browns average 164 ypg and 5.2 yards/carry on the ground.
I just think there's way too much value here with Cleveland catching more than a field goal. Give me the Browns +3.5!
|10-30-22||Bears +9.5 v. Cowboys||29-49||Loss||-110||71 h 6 m||Show|
8* NFL Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE: Chicago Bears +9.5
I will gladly take my chances with the Bears as a 9.5-point road dog against the Cowboys. Not many times a team coming off a 33-14 win as a 8.5-point dog will stay undervalued, but that's exactly the case here with Chicago. The Bears are getting no love for their blowout win on the road against New England on Monday Night Football.
Some of that has to do with what we have seen prior to that game from Chicago. A lot also has to do with the opponent being the Cowboys, who are one of the biggest public teams in the league. Not to mention Dallas has covered 5 of their last 6 and just won 24-6 as a 7-point favorite in Dak's first game back last week against the Lions.
There was definitely value with Dallas when Dak was injured, as backup Cooper Rush played as well as you could have asked for. I know it was his first game back after a long layoff, but I was not impressed with Dak against a Lions defense he should have feasted on. If Detroit doesn't turn the ball over on 5 times in the 2nd half of that game, the Lions easily cover and potentially win outright. Keep in mind Detroit had 1st and Goal from the 1-yard line down just 6-10 in the 4th quarter and fumbled the ball on their first attempt to score. It was all downhill from there.
It's not going to be any easier on the Cowboys offense against an underrated Bears defense. One that should only get better if Chicago continues to run the football like they have. After putting up 238 rushing yards against the Commanders, the Bears had 243 rushing yards on the road against a Belichick led defense that knew coming in they just needed to stop the run to keep that offense in check. Fields looked as comfortable as I have seen him and I'm willing to roll the dice at this price that he's able to build off that performance. Give me Chicago +9.5!
|10-30-22||Panthers +4 v. Falcons||Top||34-37||Win||100||71 h 19 m||Show|
10* NFL NFC South PLAY OF THE MONTH: Carolina Panthers +4
I'll gladly take my chances with the Panthers as a 4-point road dog against division rival Atlanta on Sunday. Just about everyone, including myself, had written this Panthers team off. I thought after firing head coach Matt Rhule and benching Baker Mayfield we were going to see a different team and they came out that first game under interim head coach Steve Wilks and lost 10-24 at the Rams, totaling just 203 yards of total offense.
Who would have thought trading away wide out Robby Anderson and star running back Christian McCaffrey would be the spark this team needed, but they delivered in a big way without those two, beating the Bucs 21-3 as a 13-point dog last Sunday.
The first game without McCaffrey and they rushed for a season-high 173 yards. PJ Walker was also an efficient 16 of 22 passing. It certainly seemed to give life to a Panthers' defense that was playing extremely well early on while the offense struggled.
I like that defense to not only carry them to cover but an outright win against the Falcons. Atlanta's offense has not been the same since losing Cordarrelle Patterson. He's missed the last 3 games and still leads the team with 340 rushing yards.
I also think people got so caught it up in Atlanta covering the spread, they ignored how bad this Falcons offense has been. Marcus Mariota has thrown for 462 yards in his last 4 games combined. He had a mere 107 passing yards in a blowout loss last week to the Bengals and 75 of those yards came on one pass play. Give me the Panthers +4!
|10-30-22||Patriots -2.5 v. Jets||Top||22-17||Win||100||71 h 4 m||Show|
10* NFL NFC East PLAY OF THE MONTH: New England Patriots -2.5
I will gladly take my chances with the Patriots as a 2.5-point road favorite against the Jets. A lot of people might be left scratching their head to why New England is favored in this game. The Pats are coming off a 14-33 loss at home to the Bears as a 8.5-point favorite, while New York has won and covered each of their last 4 games.
I might be dead wrong here and the Jets will find a way to win this game, but I think this is the perfect time to sell-high on New York. During the Jets 4-game win streak they have beat a broken Denver team without starting quarterback Russell Wilson, a broken Packers team, a Dolphins team that was down to 3rd string QB Skylar Thompson and a Steelers team that isn't very good. Their only other win is that crazy comeback in the final minutes vs the Browns in Week 2.
Not only do I think the Jets are being overvalued coming into this game, they also have to try and figure out how to keep their offensive afloat after losing stud rookie running back Breece Hall, who had rushed for 463 yards (5.8 yards/carry) and 4 TDs. Hall also had 218 yards receiving.
I know they traded for James Robinson, but I'm not buying he's going to make a huge impact in his first game. Keep in mind this is a Jets' offense that has been all run of late. New York has just 391 total passing yards in their last 3 games combined.
All of that and the Jets are having to go up against what I going to be a pissed off Patriots defense that was just embarrassed on their home field in prime time on Monday Night Football. I will be shocked if this game is even remotely close. Give me the Pats -2.5!
|10-29-22||Baylor v. Texas Tech -2||Top||45-17||Loss||-110||75 h 11 m||Show|
10* NCAAF Vegas Insider PLAY OF THE MONTH: Texas Tech Red Raiders -2
We cashed a big play on Texas Tech -6 at home in last week's 48-10 blowout win over West Virginia and will gladly fire right back with another big play on the Red Raiders as a mere 2-point home favorite against Baylor this week.
I've been on Texas Tech a lot this year, as I continue to feel like they are one of the better teams no one talks about. Their 3 losses this year have all come on the road to teams that at the time were all ranked in the Top 25 (all 3 still are). You could argue the Red Raiders were the better team in all 3 of those losses. They outgained NC State 353 to 270, Kansas State 473 to 459 and Oklahoma State 527 to 434.
In their lone two Big 12 home games they have had, they beat Texas 37-34, outgaining the Longhorns 479 to 428. They also outgained the Mountaineers by a staggering margin of 594 to 282 in their 38-point win last week. Every team Texas Tech has played this year, they have won the yardage battle. I just feel given this stat, there's no way they should be laying less than a field goal at home here against Baylor.
The Bears are just 1-2 in true road games with the lone win coming against Iowa State. They lost by 6 at BYU, who has really fallen off of late and by 3 at West Virginia, who again just got annihilated by Texas Tech. Give me the Red Raiders -2!
|10-29-22||Kentucky +12.5 v. Tennessee||6-44||Loss||-110||75 h 46 m||Show|
9* NCAAF No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: Kentucky Wildcats +12.5
I will gladly take my chances with Kentucky as a 12.5-point road dog against Tennessee on Saturday. I just feel like this is a few too many for the Vols to be laying in this spot. Tennessee has really taken the SEC by storm early on in 2022. The Vols are 7-0 and with their 52-49 win over Alabama, there's plenty of talk about this team being good enough to dethrone Georgia in the SEC East.
Well it just so happens that massive game against the Bulldogs is looming next week. I just have to think given how well it's been going for the Vols, they are going to have a tough time giving Kentucky their full attention in this game. Keep in mind a loss here and a win over Georgia and they are still in the drivers seat to make the SEC title game, as they would hold the tie-breaker over the Bulldogs.
On the flip side of this, I got to believe the Wildcats are going to be jacked up for this game. Let's also not ignore just how close Kentucky is to being undefeated. In their 3-point loss at Ole Miss, they fumbled it away not once but twice in the redzone in the final minutes of the 4th quarter. The other loss was to South Carolina, where star quarterback Will Levis didn't play.
On top of all that, Kentucky has had a full two weeks to prepare for this game after a bye last week. We have seen the Vols struggle with what I feel are lessor teams than Kentucky, barely beating Pitt 34-27 and escaping with a 38-33 win over Florida. Neither of which they won the yardage battle. It would not surprise me at all if Kentucky were to pull off the upset. Give me the Wildcats +12.5!
|10-29-22||Missouri +4.5 v. South Carolina||23-10||Win||100||72 h 35 m||Show|
8* NCAAF Sharp Money ATS SHOCKER: Missouri Tigers +4.5
I will gladly take the 4.5-points with Missouri on the road against South Carolina. I just feel like this is a great spot to sell-high on the Gamecocks. South Carolina comes into this game having won 4 straight and all the sudden ranked No. 25 in the country. While the Gamecocks are by no means a bad team, I also don't think they one of the 25 best teams in the nation.
South Carolina's 3 non-conference wins are against Georgia State, Charlotte and S Carolina St (FCS). In their two losses they lost by 14 at Arkansas and by 41 at home to Georgia. Their last two wins have come in SEC play, but one of those was against Kentucky without star quarterback Will Levis and the other was last week's win at home over a Texas A&M team that is in shambles.
To me I just think it has the Gamecocks way overvalued here, as I don't think they should be laying more than a field goal against a Missouri team that has flashed some serious potential of late. While the Tigers are just 1-3 in their last 4 games and the only win being by a mere 3-points at home against Vandy, They lost by just 3 at Auburn, gave Georgia the scare of a life in a 4-point home loss and lost by just 7 as a 10.5-point dog at Florida. Missouri has been a dog 3 times in SEC play and covered all 3.
South Carolina hasn't even been a favorite in a single SEC game up to this point. They were 9-point dogs at Arkansas, 25-point dogs at home to Georgia, 4-point dogs at Kentucky without Levis and 3-point dogs at home to Texas A&M. Simply put, they got no business laying more than field goal here. In fact, I like Missouri to win this game outright. Give me the Tigers +4.5!