|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|01-02-23||Utah v. Penn State +2.5||Top||21-35||Win||100||114 h 33 m||Show|
10* NCAAF Rose Bowl VEGAS INSIDER: Penn State Nittany Lions +2.5
I'm going to grab the 2.5-points with Penn State against Utah in Monday's Rose Bowl. Betting against Kyle Whittingham in bowl games isn't exactly something I like to do, but I just feel the wrong team is favored in this matchup.
Penn State might just be the best team that no one is talking about. The Nittany Lions came into this season as an afterthought in the Big Ten East, which was to be expected given their struggles last year and them playing in the same division as Ohio State and Michigan. They started to get some love after a 5-0 start leading up to their showdown against the Wolverines in Ann Arbor. Penn State was only a 6.5-point road dog in that matchup. They then proceeded to get housed in a 17-41 loss to Michigan. Two weeks later they gave Ohio State a scare, but ended up losing by 31-44.
After that loss to the Buckeyes everyone kinda wrote this team off. I think everyone, including myself, thought they would struggle to finish the season strong. Penn State didn't just finish strong, they played their best football of the season down the stretch run. The Nittany Lions won their next 5 games by a little more than 28 ppg. They were a perfect 5-0 ATS in those games. You got to go all the way back to the middle of October to find the last game Penn State failed to cover.
I think them getting matched up against Utah, who won the Pac-12 title, all but guarantees they will be motivated for this game. The only real significant player they have had leave early for the NFL or transfer is corner Joey Porter Jr.
Utah on the other hand has three of their best players sitting out this game. Those being starting running back Tavion Thomas, tight end Dalton Kincaid and corner Clark Phillips. While Thomas did lead the team in rushing with 687 yards, they probably could have made do without him. However, I think the losses of Kincaid and Phillips are huge. Kincaid would have been a matchup nightmare for the Nittany Lions. Without him they can focus all their attention on wideout Dvaughn Vele. As for Phillips, he finished T-3rd in the country with 6 interceptions.
Those guys not playing tells me that this game just isn't all that important to Utah and I think part of them not playing is because this team was in the Rose Bowl last year. I always question the motivation of a team playing in the same bowl game. With all that said, even if all those guys were playing for Utah, I would still like Penn State at this price. Give me the Nittany Lions +2.5!
|12-31-22||TCU v. Michigan -7.5||Top||51-45||Loss||-110||6 h 10 m||Show|
10* NCAAF Fiesta Bowl VEGAS INSIDER: Michigan -7.5
I'll lay the 7.5 with the Wolverines against TCU in the Fiesta Bowl. These playoff semifinal matchups have a history of not being all that competitive and this one to me has blowout written all over it. How many times have we seen a Big 12 team (mainly Oklahoma) get exposed in these playoffs? TCU is lessor version of those Sooner teams.
Everyone wants to focus on their 12-0 start, but this is a team that won a lot of games they shouldn't have. I also think losing K-State in the Big 12 title game only solidifies that this team is a fraud.
As for Michigan, this team is getting a lot of respect, but I don't think it's enough. This team was here a year ago and didn't play up to their liking. This entire season has been about getting back to the playoffs and delivering a big time showing in this spot. This team annihilated the two best teams they played in Penn State and Ohio State, beating the Nittany Lions 41-1 and the Buckeyes 45-23.
Michigan was outstanding at running the football, averaging 243 yards/game and 5.7 yards/carry. TCU gave up 152 rush yards/game and 4.2 yards/carry and that was in a watered down Big 12 where the majority of teams like to throw the football. I just think the Wolverines are going to impose their will on the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball and win this game going away. Give me the Wolverines -7.5!
|12-31-22||Kansas State v. Alabama -7||20-45||Win||100||2 h 1 m||Show|
9* NCAAF - Sugar Bowl ATS SLAUGHTER: Alabama -7
I'll lay the 7-points with Alabama against Kansas State in Saturday's Sugar Bowl. The big concern for the Crimson Tide coming into this game was how motivated would they be to play after missing out on the playoffs. I believe we got the answer to that with all of Alabama's future 1st round picks not opting out. While they haven't said it, it's got the feel here of the Crimson Tide looking to come out and make a statement. They want to show everyone that they are one of the 4 best teams and should have been invited to the 4-team playoff.
That's bad news for Kansas State, who I think is getting way too much respect here. Sure the Wildcats won the Big 12 title, defeating TCU to end the Horned Frogs perfect season. A great win, but the Horned Frogs to me are frauds. They have pulled several wins out that should have been losses and will likely get exposed later in the night against Michigan in the Fiesta Bowl.
It's also a bad matchup for K-State, who wants to run the football, grind out the clock and let their defense win them the game. I just don't see them being able to stop Alabama from scoring and running the ball right at this Alabama defense is not a great recipe for success. Give me the Crimson Tide -7!
|12-30-22||Maryland v. NC State -1||Top||16-12||Loss||-110||3 h 55 m||Show|
10* NCAAF - Duke's Mayo Bowl VEGAS INSIDER: NC State -1
I will gladly take my chances with NC State at basically a pick'em against Maryland in Friday's Duke Mayo Bowl. I just feel like the Terps are getting way too much respect here. Maryland's offense figures to have a really tough time moving the football against an elite Wolfpack defense.
A big reason for that is the talent the Terps will be missing. Maryland had 3 legit NFL wideouts in Rakim Jarrett, Dontay Demus and Jacob Copeland. All 3 have decided not to play in this game. The only wideout who had more than 250 yards receiving that will be available is Jeshaun Jones.
I'm also not a big fan of Maryland quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa. Yes, he's extremely accurate, but he wasn't nearly as good this year as he was last year. He's also a quarterback that has feasted on bad teams and struggled against better competition. Over the last 2 years, Tagovailoa has faced 13 teams with a winning record and has a 18/15 TD/INT ratio. Compare that to a 25/2 TD/INT ratio in 11 games vs teams with a losing record.
NC State has been hit hard with injuries at the quarterback position, but the offense did perform well when true freshman M.J. Morris was under center. He had a 7-1 TD/INT ratio in 3 starts. He got hurt at the end of the year, but is expected to be ready for the bowl game.
I just think the NC State defense will make enough plays for the Wolfpack to get out to a comfortable win and secure the victory. Give me NC State -1!
|12-29-22||Washington +3.5 v. Texas||Top||27-20||Win||100||21 h 5 m||Show|
10* NCAAF Alamo Bowl VEGAS INSIDER: Washington Huskies +3.5
I'm going to grab the 3.5-points with Washington as they take on Texas in the Alamo Bowl Thursday night. I don't think the Longhorns should be laying more than a field goad and I'm not so sure they should even be favored in this game.
Texas had arguably their best player on each side of the ball opt out in running back Bijan Robinson and linebacker DeMarvion Overshown. Robison rushed for 1,580 yards and 18 touchdowns. Not only will he be out, but backup running back Rochon Johnson, who had 554 yards and 5 scores has also opted out. That leaves freshman Jonathan Brooks, who had just 179 yards, as their leading rusher going into this game.
That's going to put a lot of pressure on Quinn Ewers to shoulder the offense. Ewers flashed at times in his freshman season, but I thought he regressed as the season went on. He really seemed to be flustered by pressure and this Washington defense has shown the ability to get to the quarterback and have done so without blitzing.
On the flip side of the ball, you have an explosive Washington offense that put up 40.8 ppg, 523 ypg and 7.1 yards/play going up against what I think is a very middle of the pack Texas defense without Overshown. Michael Penix and the Huskies offense tormented zone defense and is facing a Longhorns defense that played zone on roughly 75% of their defensive snaps. Without Robinson and Johnson, Texas won't be able to play keep away. This should at the very least be a pick'em. Give me the Huskies +3.5!
|12-28-22||Kansas +2.5 v. Arkansas||Top||53-55||Win||100||8 h 12 m||Show|
10* NCAAF Liberty Bowl VEGAS INSIDER: Kansas Jayhawks +2.5
I will take my chances with Kansas as a 2.5-point dog against Arkansas in the Liberty Bowl on Wednesday. The Jayhawks should be the much more motivated side in this one. Kansas is coming off a shocking 2022 regular-season that saw them go 6-6 and become bowl eligible for the first time since 2008.
Kansas went just 3-6 in the Big 12, which might not seem all that impressive. However, were talking about a team that was 6-83 in conference games over the previous 10 years. Almost everyone had them picked to finish last in the Big 12.
In just two years, head coach Lance Leipold has turned this program around and now Kansas has a chance to cement their best season in more than a decade with a win over a SEC opponent.
That opponent is Arkansas, who I just don't think is all that excited about playing in this game. The Razorbacks have have had several key players opt out. On offense starting center Ricky Stromberg and 2nd leading receiver Jadon Haselwood opted out, while starting tight end Trey Knox and their No. 3 wideout Ketron Jackson entered the portal. Haselwood, Knox and Jackson combined to catch 101 passes for 1,275 yards and 11 TDs. That's 47.6% of their receptions, 46.1% of their yards and 45.8% of their receiving TDs out the door.
On defense, Arkansas will be without linebackers Drew Sanders and Bumper Pool, defensive back Myles Slusher and defensive tackle Isaiah Nichols. Sanders led the team in tackles (103) and sacks (9.5), Pool was second in tackles (92). Their leading tackler on the field will be Simeon Blaier, who finished with 66. Considering the Razorbacks allowed 28.8 ppg, 454 ypg and 6.5 yards/play with Sanders and Pool on the field, it could get ugly without them against a high-powered KU offensive attack. Give me the Jayhawks +2.5!
|12-27-22||Georgia Southern -3.5 v. Buffalo||21-23||Loss||-110||136 h 35 m||Show|
9* NCAAF Camellia Bowl ATS ANNIHILATOR: Georgia Southern -3.5
I'm going to take Georgia Southern as a 3.5-point favorite against Buffalo in the Camellia Bowl on Tuesday, December 27. I got no problem laying less than a touchdown with the Eagles in this one.
While both of these teams snapped 3-game losing streaks in their final game of the regular-season to get to 6-6 and bowl eligible, Georgia Southern upset App State 51-48 as a 6.5-point dog, while the Bulls had to rally for a 23-22 win at home against Akron as a 11.5-point favorite.
I just have a lot more trust in this Eagles team. Georgia Southern played the much more difficult schedule and had impressive wins, beating Nebraska 45-42 on the road as a 23.5-point dog and knocking off James Madison 45-38 as a 13-point dog.
I know Buffalo caught the eye of a lot of people when they put together a 5-game win streak in the middle of the season, but the advanced numbers suggested it was a bit fluky. No bigger example of that than their 34-27 win against Toledo. The Rockets turned it over 6 times in that game and blew a 27-10 4th quarter lead. They have gone 0-4 ATS since that win over Toledo.
Both these teams played Coastal Carolina and both lost, but one was competitive and the other wasn't. Georgia Southern lost by a final score of 30 to 34. They were outgained by just 23 yards in defeat. Buffalo lost by 12 and were outgained by 167 yards. The Eagles averaged 6.2 yards/play vs the Chanticleer, while the Bulls could only muster 3.6 yards/play.
Georgia Southern averaged 6.2 yards/play on the season, gaining 0.8 yards/play more than what their opponents gave up on average. Buffalo averaged just 4.9 yards/play, which is -1.1 yards/play on average below what their opponents allowed.
So while both of these defense gave up over 6.0 yards/play, there's only one offense I trust to consistently put together scoring drives and that's Georgia Southern.
There's also a little extra motivation for Georgia Southern quarterback Kyle Vantrease in this game, as he made 26 starts over the previous 5 years at Buffalo before transferring to Statesboro last offseason. He will definitely be up for this game and I think his teammates are going to want to do everything they can to help make sure he gets a win. Give me the Eagles -3.5!
|12-23-22||Wake Forest -2 v. Missouri||Top||27-17||Win||100||10 h 35 m||Show|
10* NCAAF Pre-New Year's PLAY OF THE YEAR : Wake Forest Demon Deacons -2
I'll take my chances with Wake Forest as a 2-point favorite against Missouri in the Gasparilla Bowl. The Demon Deacons went just 1-4 SU and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 game, while Missouri closed out the year winning 4 of their last 6 to get bowl eligible. It might have some thinking the Tigers are the play as a dog in this matchup, but opt outs, coaching departures and transfers have really hit this Missouri team hard.
It's no secret this Demon Deacons defense isn't very good, especially against the pass. In their last 3 games to end the season they gave up 448 passing yards to North Carolina, 357 to Syracuse and 391 to Duke. They were missing safety Malik Mustapha for those 3 and are expected to get him back. Missouri will also be playing this game without their best wide receiver in Dominic Lovett, who had 56 catches for 846 yards (accounted for 25.3% of Missouri's completed passess). The Tigers also lost quarterbacks coach Bush Hamdan. Might not seem like a big deal, but quarterback Brady Cook had a noticable spike in his play when head coach Eli Drinkwitz surrendered play-calling duties to Hamdan. Drinkwitz will go back to calling the plays for this game.
On the flip side, Wake Forest got good news when quarterback Sam Hartman decided he wanted to play in this game. Hartman is still undecided if he's going to transfer or try his luck in the NFL Draft. He's got a chance here to set the ACC record for TD passes (needs just 1) and become the second ACC QB to end his career with more than 13,000 passing yards (needs 313). He's clearly got some incentive to play well and I think his teammates will be motivated to play well for him. Star wide out A.T. Perry also could have easily declared for the draft, but decided to play.
Missouri's defense figured to give this potent Wake Forest some problems, but that was before their two best defensive linemen Isaiah McGuire and D.J. Coleman decided to leave early to prepare for the NFL draft. They also lost a good safety in Martez Manuel. That's pretty much the Tigers' entire pass rush gone for this game. You got no chance of stopping this WF offense without getting pressure on Hartman and I just don't see Missouri's offense being able to keep pace. Give me the Demon Deacons -2!
|12-22-22||Air Force +3.5 v. Baylor||30-15||Win||100||21 h 33 m||Show|
9* NCAAF Armed Forces Bowl ATS SLAUGHTER: Air Force Falcons +3.5
I will gladly take my chances with Air Force as a 3.5-point underdog against Baylor in the Armed Forces Bowl on Thursday. You would think that service academies would be at a disadvantage in bowl games, given how long the opposing teams has to prepare for the triple-option, but that seems to be getting baked into the line. Army, Navy and Air Force are a combined 21-9 ATS in bowl games going back to 2005.
Motivation is also everything in bowl games. I have to think Air Force will be the more excited team to play in this game. Service Academies just don't take these games off. Probably why they are so good against the number. Falcons should be excited to play a Power 5 school. As for Baylor, this is not the bowl game they thought they would be playing in.
It's not exactly going to be nice out for this game either. Temps are expected to be below 20 with winds pushing 20 mph with gusts upward of 40 mph. That 100% favors the better running team, which is Air Force. With Baylor's pass game negated, I wouldn't be shocked here if the Falcons won this convincingly. Give me Air Force +3.5!
|12-21-22||South Alabama -3.5 v. Western Kentucky||Top||23-44||Loss||-110||12 h 37 m||Show|
10* New Orleans Bowl VEGAS INSIDER: S Alabama -3.5
I'll take my chances with South Alabama laying 3.5 in the New Orleans Bowl against Western Kentucky. I think this Jaguars team is going to relish in the opportunity to put some more respect on their season. This team went 10-2 with their only two losses being by 1-point on the road to UCLA and by 4 to the Sun Belt's best team in Troy. They also won 9 of their 10 games by at least a touchdown.
They are going to be facing a WKU team that has been decimated by players leaving either to the portal or leaving early to prepare for the NFL draft. On offense they won't have second leading receiver Daewood Davis, starting left tackle Gunner Britton and center Rusty Staats. The big story here is the loss of two starters on the o-line and those are widely considered the two most important positions on the offensive line.
That to me is going to be a serious problem against a South Alabama defense that gave up just 19.4 ppg, 304 ypg and 4.8 yards/play. They only gave up 300 passing yards once all season.
The Hilltoppers also lost second leading tackler Derrick Smith (NFL), corner Kahlef Hailassie (NFL) and safety Talique Allen (Portal) on the defensive side of the ball. Those losses in the secondary could be big. Give me South Alabama -3.5!
|12-17-22||Fresno State -3.5 v. Washington State||Top||29-6||Win||100||45 h 20 m||Show|
10* NCAAF Los Angeles Bowl VEGAS INSIDER: Fresno State Bulldogs -3.5
I don't think the books are close on this one. All signs in this one point to a convincing win here by the Bulldogs. I don't have much doubt that Fresno State is going to be up for this game. The message was sent to the entire team when star quarterback Jake Haener decided to play instead of leaving early to prepare for the NFL draft.
This is also a Fresno State team that caught fire after a slow start. The Bulldogs were just 1-4 thru 5 games with their only win against Cal Poly. They haven't lost since, riding a 8-game win streak, most recently knocking off Boise State 28-16 in the MWC title game. Pretty impressive a team that was once 1-4 has a shot here for a 10-win season.
The offense has been great since Haener returned from injury and the defense has made a few schematic changes that seem to be working.
As for Washington State, they are a complete mess coming into this game. Both their offensive and defensive coordinators took jobs at other schools. They won't have 3 of their top 4 receivers on offense and 3 top linebackers aren't playing on defense. This team can't run the ball, so not having those weapons on the outside is huge. They are also awful against the pass and facing an elite quarterback. Give me Fresno State -3.5!
|12-17-22||Louisville -2 v. Cincinnati||24-7||Win||100||47 h 31 m||Show|
9* NCAAF Fenway Bowl ATS ANNIHILATOR: Louisville Cardinals -2
I'm going to lay the 2-points with Louisville as they take on Cincinnati in the Fenway Bowl on Saturday. This bowl game has an interesting twist to it, with former Louisville head coach Scott Satterfield just recently being hired as the new head coach of the Bearcats. A move Cincinnati had to make after watching their head coach, Luke Fickell, take over at Wisconsin.
I think most are going to assume that Satterfield is going to just hand over the Louisville playbook to Cincinnati to help them prepare for this game. That would be quite the low ball move if he does, as Satterfield was not fired from Louisville. He's came out and said he would not interfere with the bowl preparations. Part of that is a sign of respect to the staff leftover at Cincinnati.
Yes, Satterfield took a number of his assistants with him, but so did Fickell in his departure to Wisconsin. In my opinion, the loss of Fickell is going to hurt the Bearcats more than the loss of Satterfield for the Cardinals. Fickell is the defensive mastermind behind what got Cincinnati to this point. He took his two defensive coordinators with him to Madison.
I also got to think that while Satterfield won't be on the sidelines for this game, this game now means a little more to the Cardinals with him leaving to be the head coach at Cincinnati.
I also think you just got to question the overall motivation for the Bearcats in this game. Cincinnati's loss to Tulane in their finale cost them a spot in the AAC title game, where a win over UCF would have certainly had them playing in a better bowl. Quite a difference between playing on the first Saturday of bowl season to playing in the CFB playoffs last year. Give me Louisville -2!
|12-16-22||Troy +2.5 v. UTSA||18-12||Win||100||7 h 42 m||Show|
8* NCAAF Cure Bowl ATS DESTROYER: Troy Trojans +2.5
I'll take my chances with Troy as a 2.5-point dog against UTSA in Friday's Cure Bowl. This is one of the more intriguing matchups of the early bowl slate, as you have the best offensive team in the Group of 5 (UTSA) facing off against the best defensive team in the Group of 5 (Troy).
I'll side with the better defensive team in the Trojans, as I think they are going to be able to slow down Frank Harris and that UTSA offense. One thing that I think you need to make note of with the Roadrunners big offensive numbers, is they played an extremely soft schedule in terms of opposing defenses. Maybe even the bigger hurdle for UTSA's offense is the fact that they lost offensive coordinator Will Stein (accepted same role at Oregon).
The other big thing for me, is I think this Troy offense will be able to move the ball against this UTSA defense. The Roadrunners have a strong run defense, but you can rack up yards thru the air on this defense. The Trojans offense was hitting on all cylinders down the stretch, scoring 42.3 ppg and averaging 6.6 yards/play over their last 3 games. Give me Troy +2.5!
|12-03-22||Clemson v. North Carolina +7.5||39-10||Loss||-110||55 h 49 m||Show|
9* NCAAF ACC Championship VEGAS INSIDER: North Carolina Tar Heels +7.5
I'm going to take the 7.5-points with North Carolina in Saturday's ACC Championship Game against Clemson. I just feel that there's too much value here with the Tar Heels catching more than a touchdown on a neutral site.
I really question how motivated the Clemson players are for this game. I know Dabo is saying how important this game is, but this is still a program that the very least expects to be one of the teams in the 4-team playoff. Not getting there with this year's team is a disappointment.
How much do they really care about winning another ACC title? I also have to think there's some kids in that locker room wondering if D.J. Uiagalelei is the answer at quarterback. For whatever reason Dabo's attached to him. Almost like he feels bad for the kid not delivering on expectations and wants to give him the shot to prove doubters wrong. Dabo can say he wasn't the problem in last week's loss to South Carolina, but he was a dismal 8 of 29 (27.6%) for a mere 99 yards. I'm also not so sure freshman Cade Klubnik is that much of an upgrade if they go to him.
Not saying they won't be able to move the ball, I just don't believe they will be able to exploit this North Carolina defense as much as people think.
As for the Tar Heels, even after losing their last two games, I got to think they will be extremely motivated for this game. UNC has never won this game since it was first played back in 2005 and their only appearance came back in 2015. Winning this game would be everything for head coach Mack Brown, as he's trying to take this program to that next level, where they aren't just competing for Coastal titles, but national titles.
North Carolina also happens to have one of the best quarterbacks in the country in Drake Maye. Last week South Carolina's Spencer Rattler threw for 360 yards against them. If you really take a close look at the schedule for Clemson, they really haven't been great against the better offensive teams. They gave up 45 to Wake Forest, 28 to Florida State, 35 to Notre Dame and then 31 to South Carolina.
I think UNC has a great shot here to get into the 30s, which means it would probably take at least 40 for Clemson to even have a shot at cover. I don't think that's happening. Give me the Tar Heels +7.5!
|12-03-22||Central Florida +4 v. Tulane||28-45||Loss||-110||48 h 28 m||Show|
9* NCAAF UCF/Tulane AAC ATS MASSACRE: UCF Knights +4
|12-03-22||Kansas State +2.5 v. TCU||Top||31-28||Win||100||45 h 30 m||Show|
10* NCAAF K-State/TCU Big 12 PLAY OF THE MONTH : Kansas State Wildcats +2.5
I'll take my chances with K-State as a 2.5-point dog against TCU in the Big 12 title game. TCU is a good football team, but they are very lucky to be 12-0 right now. They have trailed in the 2nd half of the majority of their conference games. Yes, they destroyed Iowa State 62-14 last week, but that was more of the Cyclones not showing up to play. That defense had been too good all season to just give up 60+ points.
One of the teams TCU pulled a rabbit out of its hat was a game at home against Kansas State earlier this season. K-State had 28 points before the halfway point of the 2nd quarter and were up 18 points. They somehow didn't score again the rest of the game and ended up losing 28-38. The only other two losses for the Wildcats were a shocking 10-17 loss at home to Tulane and a 27-34 loss at home to Texas. K-State could very easily be 11-1 and knocking on the door of the playoff.
Offensively TCU has a slight edge, but the Wildcats have the better defense and will be much better prepared for the Horned Frog attack. They say defense wins championships and if that holds true, K-State should win this game. I believe they will. Give me the Wildcats +2.5!
|12-02-22||Utah v. USC -2.5||Top||47-24||Loss||-110||29 h 31 m||Show|
10* NCAAF Utah/USC Pac-12 PLAY OF THE MONTH: USC Trojans -2.5
I'll take my chances with USC as a 2.5-point favorite against Utah in the Pac-12 Championship Game in Las Vegas (Allegiant Stadium). I like the Trojans to get their revenge on Utah, as the Utes handed them their only loss of the season so far. The first meeting came back on Oct. 15. Utah won that game 43-42. The Utes scored a TD with 48 seconds to play and instead of kicking an extra point to send it to OT, they went for 2 and got it.
It's pretty amazing what Lincoln Riley has done in his first year at USC and when you look at how far Oklahoma has fallen without him, it's pretty safe he's a big part of it. So is, quarterback Caleb Williams. Thing is, isn't an elite Heisman producing QB what Riley has had with his teams at Oklahoma that made the playoffs.
He's certainly going to have his team ready to play in this game. Riley made 4 Big 12 title games in his tenure with the Sooners and Oklahoma won all 4. Their smallest margin of victory was 6 points with 3 of the 4 coming by a touchdown or more.
I don't think facing Williams a second time is going to make any easier on this Utah defense either. He's going to make plays. On the flip side, I think having seen this Utah offense will benefit the Trojans. At the end of the day, I just don't see the Utes scoring enough to win this one. Give me USC -2.5!
|11-26-22||Notre Dame +6 v. USC||27-38||Loss||-110||117 h 39 m||Show|
9* NCAAF - Prime Time ATS SLAUGHTER: Notre Dame +6
I'll take my chances with Notre Dame as a 6-point dog against USC on Saturday. I just think there's too much value with the Irish, as I don't think the Trojans should be more than a 3-point favorite here.
I just think this Notre Dame team is really good, but people don't think as highly on them because of those two ugly losses at home to Marshall and Stanford earlier this season. Irish have won 5 straight, which includes a 35-14 beatdown of Clemson. The only game during this win streak decided by fewer than 17 points is a 3-point win over Navy and they had a 35-13 lead at the half in that one.
This defense of the Irish just really seems to step up the bigger the game. They were great in their opener against CJ Stroud and Ohio State and completely shutdown Clemson's offense. It would not surprise me if they made things very difficult on USC's Caleb Williams. If they can get stops, they can win this game, because the Trojans defense isn't very good and has to be a bit worn down after last week's track meet against UCLA that ended 48-45. Give me the Irish +6!
|11-26-22||Minnesota v. Wisconsin -3||Top||23-16||Loss||-110||112 h 30 m||Show|
10* NCAAF Big Ten GAME OF THE YEAR: Wisconsin Badgers -3
I absolutely love the Badgers as a mere 3-point home favorite against the Badgers. Losses to Iowa in the last couple of weeks have really derailed both of these teams chances of making the Big 10 title game.
The big difference is the Badgers loss to the Hawks came a couple weeks ago and the Gophers was last week. They were also much different losses. Iowa really was in control the majority of their game against Wisconsin. Minnesota was tied 10-10 with the Hawks and lost the game on a field goal with less than 30 seconds on the clock.
I think the letdown for Wisconsin came in last week's game against Nebraska, where they barely squeaked out a 15-14 win. With that said, it's not like they didn't outplay the Cornhuskers. Wisconsin outgained Nebraska 318 to 171. I think they will be able to get refocused for this last game, especially given it's their final home of the season, which means senior day.
On the flip side of this, I got a really hard time seeing the Gophers finding a way to find meaning in this game. That loss to Iowa hurt. They had everything to play and now have nothing and to make matter worse they have to go on the road to face a physical Wisconsin team in Madison.
I'm also not really sure what this Minnesota team has done to get as much respect as they do. They are just 3-4 in their last 7 games with their 3 wins coming against Rutgers, Nebraska and Northwestern. Two of which were at home.
It's also a Minnesota offense that needs to be able to run the ball to have success and stopping the run is the strength of this Badgers defense. Give me Wisconsin -3!
|11-26-22||Rutgers +14.5 v. Maryland||0-37||Loss||-110||109 h 16 m||Show|
8* NCAAF - Public Money ATS MASSACRE: Rutgers Scarlet Knights +14.5
I'm going to take Rutgers +14.5 on the road against Maryland. I think we are getting some exceptional value here with the Scarlet Knights catching over two touchdowns. No one is going to want anything to do with this Rutgers team after last week's 55-10 loss at home to Penn State, especially against a Maryland team that took Ohio State down to the wire and easily covered against the Buckeyes as 26.5-point underdogs.
I believe it's created some exceptional value here with the Scarlet Knights. There's a chance I'm dead wrong here and Rutgers is a complete no show, but throwing in the towel is not an option for a coach like Greg Schiano. I really think this Scarlet Knight team is going to show up with a big effort here. Knowing this is the last game of their season and losing the way they did last week, I can't see this team wanting to go out with another ugly loss.
I actually think it's the Terps who are going to have the difficult time getting motivated for this game. They put everything they had into last week's game against Ohio State and they almost pulled off the massive upset. Maryland had the ball near midfield trailing by just 3 with about 6 minutes to play in the 4th quarter and just couldn't make the big play they needed down the stretch to get the win.
I just don't think there's a lot to play for if you are Maryland, as they are already bowl eligible at 6-5. It's not like finishing 7-5 is going to get them to a much better bowl game.
I also think this Rutgers defense will present some challenges for this Maryland offense. When the Terps are at their most dangerous offensively is when Taulia Tagovailoa is slinging it all over the field. Throwing the ball is not exactly something you want to do against this Scarlet Knights defense. Rutgers is only giving up 191 passing yards/game.
I also wonder just how healthy Tagovailoa is coming into this game. He banged his knee on the final play against Ohio State and looked to be really bothered. I know they are saying it's just a bad bruise and he's going to play after practicing, but I got a hard time believing he's going to be 100% for this game.
Let's also not forget that prior to the big game he had against Ohio State, he really struggled the previous two weeks against Penn State and Wisconsin. He completed just 11 of 22 attempts for 74 yards against the Nittany Lions and 10 of 23 for 77 yards against the Badgers.
As long as Rutgers can generate some offense and I believe they will, they should have no problem keeping this within two touchdowns and it wouldn't shock me at all if they won this game outright. Give me the Scarlet Knights +14.5!
|11-25-22||Florida +10 v. Florida State||38-45||Win||100||93 h 16 m||Show|
9* NCAAF Friday Prime Time VEGAS INSIDER: Florida Gators +10
I will gladly take my chances with Florida cathing 10-points on the road against Florida State. I just think this is a few too many for the Gators to be catching in this one. I get that Florida is just 6-5 and are coming off a 7-point loss at Vandy as a 14-point favorite. I just think there's a different level of focus and intensity for Florida when they play the Seminoles. What did that game against the Commodores really mean to the Gators. They were 6-4 going into that game completely out of it in the SEC.
Their 4 previous losses were against Kentucky, Tennessee, LSU and Georgia. The loss to the Wildcats came off that HUGE win over Utah in Week 1 (No one was giving Florida a shot in that game), they lost by just 5 on the road to the Vols and were up early on LSU before losing by just 10.
I think Florida is going to feel disrespected being a 10-point dog here. FSU is a good team, but this is a Gators team that was only a 11-point dog at Tennessee. Yes, the Seminoles have a great early season win (on a neutral field) against LSU, but they were a missed extra point in the final seconds from going to OT and the Tigers had all the momentum. Their next best win is a 35-31 win at Louisville and then either a win at Miami or Syracuse. They lost by 10 at home to Wake Forest, lost to NC State on the road and while they lost by just 6 at home to Clemson, the Tigers led 34-14 going into the 4th quarter of that game.
I really like the Gators to keep this within 10 and I will definitely have some on Florida to win outright. Give me the Gators +10!
|11-25-22||UCLA v. California +10.5||35-28||Win||100||90 h 59 m||Show|
8* NCAAF - Situational ATS SLAUGHTER: Cal Golden Bears +10.5
I'll take my chances with Cal as a 10.5-point home dog against UCLA on Friday. This is just one of those late season games where you got to ignore the stats and just look at the situation. This is an absolute play against spot on UCLA.
It's been a rough couple of weeks for the Bruins. First it was a shocking 28-34 loss at home to Arizona as a 20-point favorite, then came the ultimate dagger last week in their 45-48 loss at home to rival USC. That game against the Trojans was a must-win for UCLA to have a shot at making the Pac-12 title game.
Had the Bruins won that game, UCLA would have been in a 4-way tie for 2nd with USC, Washington and Utah. Which ultimately would have made this a win and get in scenario to the Pac-12 title game, as they would have beat all 3 of the teams they were tied with head-to-head.
It's a very similar scenario to what we saw with Ole Miss last week and why I didn't think twice about taking Arkansas in that game. The only mistake I made was not betting more on that one. It's why you can be assured I'll have some on the Cal money line on top of a big play on the spread.
Lastly, this is not a horrible Cal team. The Golden Bears might be just 4-7, but they a 7-point loss to Notre Dame, 7-point loss to Washington and a 6-point loss to USC. This team had lost 6-straight prior to last week's big win over rival Stanford. i just got to think the Golden Bears are sick of losing and will be motivated despite not being able to win to get to a bowl game. A top 20 opponent on your home field. Give me Cal +10.5!
|11-25-22||NC State +6.5 v. North Carolina||Top||30-27||Win||100||89 h 58 m||Show|
10* NCAAF Rivalry PLAY OF THE MONTH: NC State +6.5
I'll take my chances with NC State as a 6.5-point road dog against in-state rivale North Carolina. I always like to lean towards the dog in these rivalry games and it just so happens this Tar Heels team is one that I'm looking to fade. UNC to me is just way overrated. They are 9-2, but have been very fortunate in close games. Out of their 9 wins, 5 have come by 3-points or less.
This is also a Tar Heels team that the public likes to back because of the great quarterback play they are getting out of Drake Maye. He's special, but he's just one guy. UNC has had to win a lot of close games because their defense can't get stops and that poor defense is why I really like NC State in this matchup.
It's been a rough go for the Wolfpack since losing starting quarterback Devin Leary, but whether it's MJ Morris or Ben Finley, I like this NC State offense to move the ball against this Tar Heels defense.
I also think this Wolfpack defense can get some stops against Maye and company. We saw UNC's offense get shutout in the 2nd half of last week's shocking loss at home to Georgia Tech as Maye really struggled to get going. NC State's defense is really good. They are only giving up 18.7 ppg vs teams that on average score 25.9. Opposing QBs are also completing just 57.5% of their attempts against them. You know they are going play their hearts out in this one against their rivals. Give me the Wolfpack +6.5!
|11-24-22||Mississippi State +2.5 v. Ole Miss||24-22||Win||100||68 h 24 m||Show|
9* NCAAF - Egg Bowl ATS NO-BRAINER: Mississippi State +2.5
I'll take my chances with Mississippi State as a 2.5-point road dog against Ole Miss on Thanksgiving Day. I faded the Rebels last week as a short road favorite against Arkansas, as I just thought it was a brutal spot for Ole Miss coming off that gut-wrenching loss to Alabama. Not just because it was Alabama, but that loss also put to rest any hope they had of winning the SEC West.
Sometimes losses like that linger for just a week and a team bounces back the following week. Other times, like I think we have here, a loss like that derails a team, especially when it comes late in the year. Not only are they still licking their wounds, but now news has come out that Lane Kiffin is in serious talks about taking over the head coaching vacancy at Auburn. I just can't imagine that news is sitting all that well with this team.
With all that said, it was going to be a tough matchup here for Ole Miss regardless against the Bulldogs. I have to think Mississippi State is going to be pretty pumped up for this game. The Bulldogs are 0-2 in the Egg Bowl under head coach Mike Leach and it's not like they haven't played the Rebels tough in those defeats. In fact, they have outgained the Rebels in both losses under Leach. Give me Mississippi State +2.5!
|11-19-22||Utah v. Oregon +2||17-20||Win||100||56 h 19 m||Show|
8* NCAAF Late Night ATS SLAUGHTER: Oregon Ducks +2
I'll take my chances with Oregon as a 2-point home dog against Utah. I really like the Ducks to win this game regardless if Bo Nix ends up playing. Though I do feel pretty good about him suiting up. I know the loss last week to Washington as a 12-point favorite doesn't look good, but let's not ignore just how good this Ducks team has looked since that ugly blowout loss to Georgia in the opener. Oregon is still outscoring opponents on average by nearly 17.0 ppg in conference play.
Yes, the Utes have got it going with 4 straight wins, but there's nothing to get excited about with the last two against Stanford and Arizona at home. The other two during this win streak were both games they could have easily lost, as they beat USC 43-42 and Washington State 21-17.
One thing I really like here is the revenge angle for Oregon. If you remember last year, the Utes destroyed the Ducks 38-7 late in the regular-season and then came right back and did it again to them in the Pac-12 title game winning 38-10. This is a game Oregon has had circled on the calendar since the schedule was released and I just don't think they should be a dog in this spot. Give me the Ducks +2!
|11-19-22||USC v. UCLA +3||48-45||Push||0||54 h 55 m||Show|
8* NCAAF - Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR: UCLA Bruins +3
I'll take my chances with UCLA as a 3-point home dog against USC in Saturday's big Pac-12 matchup. The betting public is going to be all over the Trojans at this price, especially with the Bruins coming into this game off that shocking 28-34 home loss to Arizona as a 20-point favorite.
I could be dead wrong here with UCLA, but I just think the bad loss to the Wildcats had a lot to do with this game being on deck for them. You also got to give Arizona credit, as their offense came out firing. I think it's really created some great value with the Bruins in this one, as I think they should 100% be favored to win this game at home.
I've just not been overly impressed with this USC team. Yes, the offense is good, but the defense has been spotty and it's tough to win on the road when you can't get stops in a big game like this. We have seen UCLA step up in very similar spots as a small home dog this season. They beat Washington 40-32 as a 2.5-point dog and the very next week knocked off UTAH 42-32 as a 3.5-point home dog. Give me the Bruins +3!
|11-19-22||Ole Miss v. Arkansas +2.5||27-42||Win||100||53 h 22 m||Show|
9* NCAAF Prime Time ATS SHOCKER: Arkansas Razorbacks +2.5
I'm going to take the Arkansas Razorbacks as a 2.5-point home dog against the No. 14 ranked Ole Miss Rebels. In these final couple weeks of the regular-season, I think you have to focus a little less on stats and records and put a lit more emphasis on the motivational level of teams.
It's 100% why I'm taking Arkansas at what looks to be a bad line against Ole Miss. The spot here simply couldn't be worse for the Rebels. Not only is Ole Miss coming off a monster game against Alabama, which was easily their biggest game on the schedule when it came out, their inability to hold to a 7-point 2nd half lead in a 24-30 loss to the Crimson Tide eliminated any hopes they may have had of making the SEC title game, as that loss punched LSU's ticket to Atlanta in the first week of December.
I just don't see the Rebels being able to pick themselves up off the mat, especially on the road in what is going to be a hostile environment Saturday night under the lights at Razorback Stadium. I'm also not convinced Ole Miss is as good as what people think. A lot of people will want to give them props for playing Alabama tough, but that couldn't have been a worse spot for the Crimson Tide, coming off of that OT loss at LSU which all but ended their playoff hopes.
Some might want to argue that Arkansas could also be poised for a letdown coming off a close 10-13 loss at home to SEC West frontrunner LSU, but this is a pretty big game for the Hogs. Arkansas still needs one more win to become bowl eligible and a road game at Missouri to close out the season is far from a lock. I also think it's a little easier for teams to bounce back off a tough loss when they are playing at home in prime time. Give me the Razorbacks +2.5!
|11-19-22||Wisconsin -10 v. Nebraska||15-14||Loss||-110||46 h 33 m||Show|
8* NCAAF No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: Wisconsin Badgers -10
I'll take my chances with the Badgers as a 10-point road favorite against Nebraska. I don't see the Cornhuskers putting up much of a fight in this one. With last week's 3-34 loss at Michigan, Nebraska has no shot at being bowl eligible. On the flip side of this, Wisconsin is sitting at 5-5 and still needing one more win to make sure they get a bowl invite.
I think there's some value here with the Badgers after last week's 10-24 loss at Iowa. The score makes it look like Wisconsin was outmatched. That wasn't the case. In fact, they outgained the Hawkeyes 227-146. Iowa has scoring drives of 17, 2, 18 and 27 yards.
Yes, the offense for Wisconsin wasn't very good, but expect them to be much better on that side of the ball against a bad Nebraska defense. The Cornhuskers are giving up 29.9 ppg and 439 ypg. They are also not good at stopping the run, which is the one thing you have to be able to do to slow this Wisconsin offense down. Nebraska is giving up 192 rush yards/game and 4.7 yards/carry.
On the flip side of the ball, this Wisconsin defense is really good and have really played well when facing some of the bad offenses in the Big 10. This Nebraska offense is not good. The Cornhuskers have scored a whopping 25 points combined over their last 3 games. I just don't think it's asking a lot for Wisconsin to win here by double-digits. Give me the Badgers -10!
|11-19-22||Illinois +18 v. Michigan||Top||17-19||Win||100||46 h 9 m||Show|
10* NCAAF - Vegas Insider PLAY OF THE MONTH: Illinois Fighting Illini +18
I love the Fighting Illini as 18-point dogs against Michigan on Saturday. I just think there's a ton of value with Illinois at this price. Some of the value definitely stems from the fact that the Fighting Illini come into this game off back-to-back upset losses at home. First it was a 15-23 setback against Michigan State as a 16-point favorite and then last week they lost 24-31 to Purdue as a 6-point favorite.
On the flip side, there's no question there's a tax being put on this Michigan team given their perfect record and them having covered their last two games.
Even though Illinois has come back to reality from their great start, which saw them open up the season 7-1, I still think this is a very good football team. I really like how they matchup with Michigan, especially given the less than ideal scoring conditions.
The Fighting Illini feature a very good defense. They come into this game allowing 12.5 ppg, 250 ypg and 4.2 yards/carry. To me they are very similar team to that of Iowa, who only lost by 13 to Michigan earlier this season.
This is also a game that just doesn't figure to see a ton of scoring, which is why I think the 18 is so valuable. I'm not so sure either team will even get into the 20s. Winds are expected to be a constant 15+ mph with gusts pushing 30 mph. The wind chill for this game will be in the teens.
On top of all that, Michigan just so happens to have their biggest game of the season looming next week with a road game against Ohio State, which many believe is going to be a playoff elimination game. All the Wolverines care about is getting out of this game with a win, where Illinois has nothing to lose and will be out to make a massive statement. Give me the Fighting Illini +18!
|11-19-22||TCU v. Baylor +2.5||Top||29-28||Win||100||46 h 38 m||Show|
10* NCAAF Underdog PLAY OF THE MONTH: Baylor +2.5
I'll take my chances with Baylor as a 2.5-point home dog against undefeated and No. 4 ranked TCU. I will say that I was really impressed with the Horned Frogs in last week's win over Texas. It was one of the few times they didn't have to have some massive rally late to sneak out a win.
However, that performance is not going to be enough to keep me from betting against them again this week. The line here really says it all. No one is going to want anything to do with betting Baylor in this game. Not only do you have TCU undefeated and in the 4-team playoff, but the Bears are coming off an ugly 3-31 loss at home to K-State as a short 2.5-point favorite. This line screams to back the Horned Frogs laying less than a field goal, which is exactly why I'm not just taking the points with Baylor but loading up on this one. Give me the Bears +2.5!
|11-17-22||SMU v. Tulane -3||24-59||Win||100||9 h 41 m||Show|
8* NCAAF Thursday Night ATS MASSACRE: Tulane Green Wave -3
I'll take my chances with Tulane as a mere 3-point home favorite against SMU in Thursday's only college football game out of the American Athletic. I think we are getting a very favorable price here with the Green Wave, who are in a prime bounce back spot after last week's 31-38 upset loss at home to UCF. I also think we are seeing SMU come into this game getting a little too much love having covered their last 4.
One big thing to note about Tulane's poor showing last week against the Knights is they just didn't have an answer for UCF dual threat QB John Rhys Plumlee on the ground. Plumlee racked up 176 rushing yards on just 18 attempts and the Knights went on to pile on 336 rushing yards.
This is a much better matchup for the Green Wave defense. SMU has a great QB of their own in Tanner Mordecai, but he's more of a pure pocket passer. Mordecai has just 105 rushing yards on the season.
The Mustangs offense really lives on big plays in the passing game, which plays right into the strength of the Tulane defense, which is 18th best in the country in limiting explosive pass plays. I also don't think it's going to be ideal passing conditions. While temps are expected in the low 50s to high 40s, wind chills will be in the high 30s with close to 15 mph wind and a chance of rain.
The other big thing here is this SMU defense is one of the worst in the country. The Mustangs come in giving up 32.6 ppg, 446 yards/game and 6.0 yards/play. Tulane is known more for their defense, but are scoring a healthy 32.7 ppg with 416 ypg and 6.0 yards/play. Give me the Green Wave -3!
|11-16-22||Miami-OH +1.5 v. Northern Illinois||29-23||Win||100||10 h 59 m||Show|
9* NCAAF Wednesday MACtion ATS SLAUGHTER: Miami (OH) +1.5
I'll take my chances with Miami (OH) as a 1.5-point road dog against Northern Illinois. I really think the Redhawks should be favored in this one and I'm shocked the majority of the tickets are coming in on the Huskies in this one.
Northern Illinois is way down this year. The Huskies are just 3-7 thru their first 10 games. They have little to nothing to play for with no shot at bowl eligibility. Miami (OH) has lost 3 of their last 4, but are 4-6 and still in a position to where they can win their last two games to get to bowl eligibility.
It's also a great matchup for the Redhawks. Miami (OH) has a big time talent at quarterback in Brett Gabbert, who just recently returned from injury. He had one of his best games last time out against a very good Ohio team. He now faces an awful Northern Illinois defense that ranks 114th against the pass.
Huskies are down their starting quarterback Rocky Lombardi and there's been a pretty significant drop off from him to the backups. This is also a Northern Illinois team that wants to run at all costs and is facing a Redhawks defense that has been the best in the MAC at stopping the run. Miami (OH) is giving up just 116 rush yards/game and a mere 3.3 yards/carry. Give me the Redhawks +1.5!
|11-15-22||Bowling Green +16.5 v. Toledo||42-35||Win||100||10 h 40 m||Show|
8* NCAAF - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE: Bowling Green Falcons +16.5
I'll take my chances with Bowling Green as a 16.5-point road dog against Toledo in Tuesday's MAC action. This might seem like a fair price given how bad the Falcons looked in last Wednesday's 6-40 loss to Kent State as a mere 2.5-point home dog, but let's not forget that Bowling Green had won 3 straight prior to that loss.
I also think it's a great spot to fade Toledo. The Rockets are coming off a monster game at home last week against Ball State, which was essentially for first place in the MAC West. Toledo was able to score late to sneak out a 28-21 win, which secured them a spot in the MAC Championship Game in a couple weeks. So while it is their final home game of the season, there's no real incentive here for the Rockets to lay it all on the line against the Falcons.
It's the exact opposite for Bowling Green, who comes in at 5-5, still needing 1 more win to become bowl eligible. With a road game against Ohio the only other game left on the schedule, this has to feel like a must-win for the Falcons. Not saying they pull off the upset, but I like them to keep this within two touchdowns. Give me Bowling Green +16.5!
|11-12-22||Texas A&M v. Auburn -1||10-13||Win||100||52 h 42 m||Show|
8* NCAAF No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: Auburn Tigers -1
I'll take my chances with Auburn as a mere 1-point home favorite against Texas A&M. I played on the Tigers last week as a 13-point road dog against Mississippi State. They ended up losing that game 33-39 in OT. It was an inspired effort by Auburn, especially given they went down 17-0 and trailed 24-6 at the half.
Some might say they are due for a letdown after laying it all the line in the first game after Harsin was fired. That might be the case and if so, we probably won't get there with the Tigers in this one. However, I don't see this team not showing up with a big effort in this game. I really think interim head coach Cadillac Williams has really lit a fire under this team and last week's rally will have them motivated to start stronger. It's also a game under the lights on a Saturday night, which is a big deal to these kids and also tends to lead to some pretty wild crowds.
We are also betting on Auburn against an absolute dumpster fire in Texas A&M. I think what little fight was left in this Aggies team was sucked dry a couple of weeks ago in their heartbreaking 28-31 loss at home to Ole Miss. They certainly didn't look like a team willing to fight in last week's 17-point home loss to Florida, getting outscored 21-0 in the 2nd half.
What's the incentive for Texas A&M at this point in the season. Sure they need to win out to be bowl eligible, but a lot of these big programs would rather miss out on a bowl game than go to some crappy bowl against another bad team and have to keep practicing for another month. Give me Auburn -1!
|11-12-22||North Carolina v. Wake Forest -3.5||Top||36-34||Loss||-110||52 h 1 m||Show|
10* NCAAF ACC PLAY OF THE MONTH: Wake Forest Demon Deacons -3.5
I really like Wake Forest as a 3.5-point home favorite against North Carolina. I'm sure a lot of people will be scratching their heads at this line, as the Tar Heels come into this game with a 8-1 record and are ranked No. 15 in the country. No way they should be getting over a field goal against an unranked Demon Deacons team. I think it's more than warranted and probably should be more.
I just don't think the Tar Heels are anywhere close to as good as what people think. Yes, they have a great offense and a really talented QB in Drake Maye, but they have played a very easy schedule and their defense isn't very good.
In their 4 non-conference games they played an FCS school (FAMU) and two Sun Belt teams that gave them all they could handle. They only beat App State by 2, needing all 63 points the offense put up and beat Georgia State by just 7. They also played a Notre Dame team at home and lost to the Irish 32-45.
Their 5-0 in ACC play, but the only win against a team that currently has a winning record in ACC play is against Duke and they only won that game 38-35, needing a last second TD to win.
I know Wake Forest is just 2-3 in conference play, but they don't have all those bad Coastal teams on their schedule. Their 3 losses are to Clemson, Louisville and NC State. The latter two coming in their last 2 games on the road.
I think getting back home and UNC coming into this game getting all the hype makes this the perfect spot to jump on the Demon Deacons. I think Sam Hartman and that WF offense are going to have a field day in this game. I also think their defense might surprise some people with how well they defend Maye and that explosive Tar Heels pass attack. Give me the Demon Deacons -3.5!
|11-12-22||Georgia v. Mississippi State +16.5||45-19||Loss||-110||54 h 46 m||Show|
9* NCAAF - Sharp Money ATS SLAUGHTER: Mississippi State Bulldogs +16.5
I'll take my chances with Mississippi State catching 16.5-points at home against No. 1 ranked Georgia. I think there's a lot to like about the Bulldogs in this matchup, especially at this price. I think a lot of people are once again convinced Georgia is the best team in the country after last week's convincing win over then No. 1 ranked Tennessee. That kind of hype is going to come with a tax in the betting market.
I also think people are slow to want to back Mississippi State in this game given how bad they looked a few weeks back in their 6-30 loss at Alabama. The biggest thing you got to keep in mind with that bad showing against the Crimson Tide is the game was played in Alabama and on top of that was a prime time night game.
This is just not a great road team. Bulldogs have also lost at LSU 31-16 and at Kentucky 27-17. It's a different story at home, where they are a perfect 5-0 this year. It's not easy winning on the road in the SEC and Starkville is no easy place to play under the lights on a Saturday night. This crowd is going to be electric to try and get their team to upset the Bulldogs.
This will also be just the second true road game for Georgia since the middle of September. The only other true road game during this stretch was at Missouri and if you remember they did play well having to rally to beat the Tigers 26-22.
You also got to factor in the potential letdown for Georgia coming off that big game against the Volunteers. That win all but locked them into the SEC title game, as they now hold the tie-breaker over Tennessee for the spot in the SEC East. I get no loss is a good loss in college football with how little of margin for error these teams have to make the playoffs, but a loss would not end their season. I just think it's the perfect flat spot for the Bulldogs and it's not like we can't have them win the game. Give me the Bulldogs +16.5!
|11-12-22||Kansas v. Texas Tech -3.5||28-43||Win||100||51 h 19 m||Show|
8* NCAAF Situational ATS NO-BRAINER: Texas Tech Red Raiders -3.5
I'll take my chances with the Red Raiders as a 3.5-point home favorite against Kansas. I'm still trying to process how Texas Tech failed to cover for me last week. We played the Red Raiders as a 9-point road dog against TCU. Texas Tech went into the 4th quarter of that game leading 17-13 with TCU's only TD in the game coming on a 82-yard fumble return for a score. In the blink of an eye the Horned Frogs went from trailing to leading 34-17 and would go on to win the game 34-24.
I just feel that loss combined with Kansas coming off an impressive 37-16 win at home over Oklahoma State, we are getting a really good price on the Red Raiders in this one. Kansas was the talk of college football with their 5-0 start, but they had lost 3 in a row before last week's win over the Cowboys and let's not forget Oklahoma State didn't have starting quarterback Spencer Sanders.
They were also very fortunate to only give up 16 points in that game, as the Cowboys had over 400 yards of total offense. Keep in mind the previous 3 games during the losing streak, KU had given up 35 or more points.
Texas Tech's offense has been held in check the last couple of weeks against Baylor and TCU, but are poised to have a big game here. The Jayhawks are not good at defending teams who can attack their secondary and the passing game is what makes this Red Raiders offense go.
Not saying the Texas Tech defense will shutdown a good Kansas offense, I just don't think the Jayhawks will be able to do enough offensively to keep it within the number. Give me Texas Tech -3.5!
|11-12-22||Wisconsin v. Iowa||10-24||Loss||-110||48 h 37 m||Show|
9* NCAAF Smart Money VEGAS INSIDER: Wisconsin Badgers PK
I paid the price for betting against the Hawkeyes last week with Purdue, as Iowa really dominated that game from the start and would cruise to a 24-3 win. It's not going to stop me from taking the Badgers at a pick'em in Iowa City on Saturday.
I'm just not convinced this Iowa offense has figured out their run game. Yes, they have rushed for 173 yards and 184 yards in their last two games against Northwestern and Purdue, but even with those strong showings they come into this game averaging just 103 rushing yards/game and 3.2 yards/carry.
They are not going to have the same advantage in the trenches on offense against the Badgers as they did against the Wildcats and Boilermakers. This Wisconsin defense is only giving up 20.6 ppg, 327 ypg and 4.1 yards/play and that's with them giving up 52 points and 539 yards in one game against Ohio State.
I understand that this isn't an ideal matchup for the Badgers offense either, as they are limited on that side of the ball and trying to run the ball against this Iowa defense plays right into their strength. Still I think they will have the easier time of the two teams sustaining drives.
It's also historically been good to fade Iowa after two great showings. They are just 4-12 ATS under Ferentz after leading in their previous 2 games by 14+points at the half. Hawkeyes are also just 12-25 (32%) ATS in their last 37 home games after holding each of their previous 2 opponents to 7 or fewer points in the 1st half. Give me Wisconsin PK!
|11-11-22||East Carolina +5.5 v. Cincinnati||25-27||Win||100||26 h 25 m||Show|
9* NCAAF Friday Night ATS SLAUGHTER: East Carolina +5.5
I'll take my chances with the Pirates as a 5.5-point road dog against Cincinnati. I just think the market is off on these two teams, which has created the value here with East Carolina. The Pirates have really impressed me in 2022. They are 6-3 and come in having won their last 3. They could also easily be 8-1, as they should have beat NC State at home in their opener and lost by just 3-points at home to Navy. They are 6-3 ATS as well, which shows just how undervalued they have been.
As for Cincinnati, you just knew this team was going to struggle to cover the numbers they were going to be asked to lay simply based on what this program was able to accomplish last year going undefeated and getting to playoffs, especially with all they lost. The Bearcats are just 2-6-1 ATS so far and have failed to cover the number in each of their last 5 games (0-4-1).
I also look at the common opponents played and it too screams too many points for Cincinnati be laying. These two teams have played 3 common opponents. While both have gone 2-1 in those games, ECU is outscoring those teams on average by 13.7 ppg. Cincinnati is only outscoring them by 3.3 ppg. The defensive numbers being almost identical. Offense is where ECU really seems to have an edge and I think it's good enough to not only get them a cover but an outright win. Give me the Pirates +5.5!
|11-05-22||Auburn +13 v. Mississippi State||33-39||Win||100||52 h 25 m||Show|
8* NCAAF - Prime Time ATS SHOCKER: Auburn Tigers +13
I'll take my chances with Auburn catching 13 on the road against Mississippi State. This is just one of my favorite situational handicaps in really all sports. That's backing the team who leading up to the game, fired their head coach.
That's the storyline for Auburn in this one. Enough was enough, Brian Harsin was fired after last week's 27-41 loss at home to Arkansas. Sometimes a coaches style or personality just isn't a good fit and to me it felt like Harsin had lost the team maybe even before the season started.
There's already talk about how the energy level is up with the team since Harsin was let go. The interim is former Auburn star running back Carnell Williams. A.K.A. as Cadillac. Tell me the kids aren't going to be fired up to play for him.
Even with the Bulldogs coming off of a bye, I think Auburn will be the more motivated team in this one. Keep in mind Mississippi State lost a lot of their momentum leading into the bye. There was a buzz forming with this team after their 5-1 start and they went into the bye off back-to-back road losses to Kentucky and Alabama.
Their only two wins in conference play have come against Arkansas, who is also way down, and Texas A&M, who was playing awful football at that time.
For as bad as everyone wants to make Auburn out to be, they have really been competitive in SEC play outside of a road game against Georgia. They only lost by 4 at home to LSU, by 14 at Ole Miss and by 14 to Arkansas. I like them to keep it close and maybe even win outright. Give me the Tigers +13!
|11-05-22||Oklahoma State v. Kansas||Top||16-37||Win||100||49 h 33 m||Show|
10* NCAAF - Big 12 PLAY OF THE MONTH: Kansas Jayhawks PK
I love Kansas as a pick'em at home against Oklahoma State on Saturday. There are just no easy games on the schedule in the Big 12. I can't remember a time it's been this even across the board in this conference in football.
A big reason for that is the resurgent Jayhawks, who are off to a 5-3 start and figure to remain on an upward trajectory as long as Lance Leipold remains their head coach. I know Kansas has lost their last 3 games after that improbable 5-0 start, but one of those was a 7-point loss to TCU, who is the only undefeated team in the conference. The other two were road games against Oklahoma and Baylor.
They also lost starting QB Jalon Daniels in the loss to TCU and he didn't play at all in the losses to the Sooners or Bears. He's back practicing with the team and all signs point to him returning. With that said, I still like KU if he were to sit, as backup Jason Bean has been every bit as good as Daniels throwing the ball. He's just not as big of a threat on the ground.
This is also a Kansas team that has had two weeks to prepare for this game coming off a bye week. The Cowboys on the other hand are probably still trying to figure out what happened in last weeks 0-48 loss at K-State. I think the writing has been on the wall with this team not being as good as their record, as they have several close wins where they had to rally from behind.
On top of that, it's no sure thing the Cowboys have starting quarterback, who was roughed up in garbage time in the loss to the Wildcats. Give me the Jayhawks Pk!
|11-05-22||Syracuse v. Pittsburgh -3.5||9-19||Win||100||48 h 27 m||Show|
8* NCAAF No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: Pittsburgh Panthers -3.5
I'll take my chances with Pitt as a 3.5-point home favorite against the Orange. This is a line that simply doesn't look right. Syracuse is 6-2 and while they have lost their last two games, those losses did come to Clemson and Notre Dame. Pitt on the other hand is just 4-4 and come in having lost 3 of their last 4 and failed to cover in 4 of their last 5. Keep in mind Syracuse is still the No. 20 ranked team in the country.
It would be one thing if this was closer to a pick'em. Everyone is going to be looking to back Syracuse catching a field goal plus the hook. Maybe the books are just overvaluing Pitt and we are stepping in it with the Panthers with this play, but I just don't think that's the case, especially this late into the season. The line to me, screams that the books are taking a pretty firm stance on the Panthers not just winning this game but winning it going away.
I do question the mindset of this Syracuse team. They had that 6-0 start and got all these crazy thoughts they could win the ACC. Then they jump out that big lead on the road against Clemson and aren't able to finish the job. They follow that up with a bad showing at home against Notre Dame. Would it really be all surprising to see their woes carry over to the road against a Pitt team that I think is hungry for a win and a bit undervalued after playing two of the better ACC teams on the road in Louisville and UNC.
It's also not easy moving the ball on this Panthers defense. Pitt is only giving up 352 yards/game and 5.4 yards/play. They are allowing 3.9 yards/rush and a mere 56.7% completion rate. As long as the offense doesn't turn it over a bunch, there's every reason to think they win here by at least a touchdown. Give me the Panthers -3.5!
|11-05-22||West Virginia v. Iowa State -7||14-31||Win||100||48 h 26 m||Show|
9* NCAAF - Situational ATS SLAUGHTER: Iowa State Cyclones -7
I will take my chances with Iowa State as a 7-point home favorite against West Virginia. A lot of people might be scratching their heads to why the Cyclones are laying a full touchdown in this game. ISU comes into this game having lost their last 5 and in the process have struggled to get their offense going.
While I do think the Cyclones will be better offensively than they have been, I'm not expecting them to go off for 40+ points. I think they win here by more than a touchdown because of their defense. Because this team has struggled to win games, I think people overlook just how good this ISU defense has been. The Cyclones come into this game giving up just 16.6 ppg and 296 ypg, which becomes even more impressive when you factor in their opponents on average are scoring 29.6 ppg and putting up 399 yards of total offense.
Just to put that in comparison, WV is allowing 34.6 ppg, 418 ypg and 6.4 yards/play. These two teams have also played 3 common opponents (Kansas, Texas and Baylor) and in those games the Mountaineers are giving up 44.3 ppg, 485.7 ypg and 7.5 yards/play. ISU against those same 3 teams are allowing 23.0 ppg, 313.7 ypg and 5.2 yards/play.
It's hard to win on the road with a bad defense when your offense isn't able to sustain drives. We kind of seen that with WV in their two Big 12 road games, where they lost 20-38 to Texas and 10-48 at Texas Tech. I expect more of the same problems for the Mountaineers in this one. Give me Iowa State -7!
|11-05-22||Penn State v. Indiana +14||45-14||Loss||-110||48 h 24 m||Show|
8* NCAAF Sharp Money ATS NO-BRAINER: Indiana Hoosiers +14
I'll take my chances with Indiana cashing as a 14-point home dog against Penn State on Saturday. I just feel like this is a few too many points for the Nittany Lions to be laying on the road in this spot. This is a massive letdown spot for Penn State coming off of last week's game against Ohio State. A game they ended up losing 31-44, but had a 21-16 lead with under 10 minutes to play in the 4th quarter.
Having already lost the head-to-head matchups with the Wolverines and Buckeyes, Penn State at 3-2 in Big 10 play is all but out of the picture for winning the East and playing in the Big Ten title game. At this program, that's really their only goal coming into the season and one they had to feel like they had a shot at reaching given their 5-0 start.
I just think it will be tough for Penn State to pick themselves up off of the mat and Indiana is a team that no matter how limited they are on either side of the ball, will give you their best effort. It would be fitting for them to come into this game riding a 5-game losing streak and go out and win the game outright.
They did lose by just 21 at home to Michigan and they have a 5-point loss to Maryland and a 7-point loss on the road to Rutgers. Their defense isn't great, but it's good at stopping the run and if they win up front on that side of the ball, they certainly get off of the field and not let Penn State run up the score. Give me the Hoosiers +14!
|11-05-22||Texas Tech +9 v. TCU||24-34||Loss||-110||45 h 57 m||Show|
9* NCAAF - Public Money ATS MASSACRE: Texas Tech Red Raiders +9
I'll take my chances with Texas Tech as a 9-point road dog against TCU. I really like this Texas Tech team. Even though I lost with them last week in an ugly loss at home to Baylor, I've won more than I've lost backing them this season. Not only that, but I think TCU is a bit overrated right now, at least in the betting market.
Yes the Horned Frogs are 8-0, but it's not been them just dominating their opponents. Their last 4 wins, all conference games, have been decided by 10 points or less. Note that in their two wins by 10 points, they beat K-State 38-28 after trailing 10-28. They scored a garbage TD in the final seconds against WV last week to win that game by 10. TCU also has a 43-40 OT win over Oklahoma State where they trailed by double-digits in the 2nd half. They were also tied with Kansas with less than 5 minutes to play in the 4th quarter.
I just don't think TCU deserves to be laying more than a touchdown in this spot. Prior to last week's loss to Baylor, Texas Tech had outgained each of its previous 7 opponents. I just don't think the Red Raiders showed up to that game against Baylor with the right mindset. The defense didn't play up to their standards and the offense turned it over 4 times. I feel pretty good about this team responding with a much better mindset against TCU, who every team is out to get right now. Give me the Red Raiders +9!
|11-05-22||Iowa v. Purdue -3.5||Top||24-3||Loss||-105||45 h 60 m||Show|
10* NCAAF - Big Ten PLAY OF THE MONTH: Purdue Boilermakers -3.5
I'm going to lay the 3.5-points with Purdue at home against Iowa. Last week I cashed on Iowa -11 at home against Northwestern with one of my biggest bets of the weekend, as they cruised to a 33-13 win. I got no problem turning around and fading the Hawkeyes as a short road dog against the Boilermakers.
The biggest reason I liked Iowa last week, was I loved the matchup for the Hawkeyes. Northwestern not only had a defense they could exploit, but I felt confident that the Wildcats offense would not be able to generate much of anything offensively. It played out even better than I expected with Iowa scoring a season-high 33-points and putting up 393 total yards, including a season-best 173 rushing yards. Northwestern's offense on the other hand managed just 177 total yards and 75 of those came on a garbage TD drive late in the 4th quarter.
One thing I was a bit surprised about was Iowa's decision to stick with Spencer Petras at quarterback. It worked out, as Petras completed 21 of 30 attempts for 220 yards and a score, but I'm not buying for a second that he's magically figured this thing out. He to me is still one of the worst QBs in the country.
I expect him and the Iowa offense to revert right back to what we grew accustomed to seeing this season. Purdue is not going to let them get the run game going. Boilermakers are only giving up 3.6 yards/carry on the season and let's not forget that Iowa had just 154 rushing yards combined in their 3 previous games. I also want to point out that while Purdue secondary has struggled at times this year, opposing QBs are only completing 55.8% of their attempts against them.
On the flip side of the ball, I like Purdue's chances of moving the ball against this stingy Iowa defense. Since Jeff Brohm came to West Lafayette back in 2017, Purdue's offense is averaging 25.6 points/game in 5 matchups with Iowa. That might not seem all that great, but keep in mind Iowa has allowed fewer than 20 ppg on the season in each of those 5 years. Purdue is 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS under Brohm vs Iowa with 3 outright wins as a dog, including last year's 24-7 win as a 12-point road dog.
This could also be an especially painful game for Iowa fans to watch. Purdue has averaged a staggering 310 passing yards/game under Brohm and it seems like it's always one guy that torches him. The last 3 years it was David Bell. This year it figures to be Iowa transfer Charlie Jones, who is 2nd in the country in receptions, 6th in receiving yards and T-4th in receiving TDs.
On top of all that, Purdue has had a full two weeks to prepare for this game coming off of their bye week. Give me the Boilermakers -3.5!
|11-03-22||Appalachian State -3 v. Coastal Carolina||28-35||Loss||-107||9 h 46 m||Show|
9* NCAAF Situational ATS SLAUGHTER: Appalachian State -3
I'll take my chances with the Mountaineers as a 3-point road favorite against Coastal Carolina. This is just one of those games where the line screams which side to take. You have a Coastal Carolina team that is 7-1 getting points on their home field against a App State team that is just 5-3 SU and 3-5 ATS. That alone makes this an easy play for me to fade the public dog.
I also feel like there's plenty of reason to like the Mountaineers in this matchup. Appalachian State has really looked good in their last two games, which have followed that ugly 24-36 loss at Texas State where they closed as a 19-point favorite. They crushed Georgia State 42-17 and did the same in a 42-3 win over Robert Morris.
The offense for the Mountaineers looks more like the unit we expected to see all season, as they are back to pounding the rock on the ground with 691 rushing yards in their last 2 games. They will be facing a Chanticleers defense that has underperformed this year. Coastal Carolina is giving up 6.2 yards/play. Grayson McCall and that Chanticleer offense may be able to keep it close early on, but I just don't see their offense being able to keep pace over the course of 60 minutes. Give me the Mountaineers -3!
|11-02-22||Central Michigan v. Northern Illinois -5.5||Top||35-22||Loss||-115||19 h 0 m||Show|
10* NCAAF MAC PLAY OF THE MONTH: Northern Illinois Huskies -5.5
Give me Northern Illinois as a 5.5-point home favorite against Central Michigan. I see a ton of value with the Huskies laying anything less than a touchdown. If you just looked at the records, this might seem like a pretty fair fight, given both teams enter with a 2-6 record. I just don't see these two teams as equals. Northern Illinois is much better than their 2-6 record, while I feel the Chippewas are every bit as bad as their record.
The Huskies have one loss by more than 10 points and that was to Toledo, who has shown to be one of the top teams in the MAC this year. The loss by 10 was to a SEC school in Vanderbilt. Every other loss has been by 1 score, including a mere 8-point loss at Kentucky and 3-point loss at Tulsa. Speaking of road games, it's worth noting Northern Illinois has played just two home games vs FBS schools and those were Vandy and Toledo.
As for Central Michigan, the Chippewas are a complete mess offensively. They lost a ton of talent on the o-line from last year's team to the NFL. They also have suffered injuries at tackle, where they are extremely thin. Chippewas have also lost several skill guys. They had a linebacker playing running back in their last game and he could see snaps here if a couple guys listed as questionable can't play. Northern Illinois for the season is averaging just 380 ypg and 5.1 yards/play. They are averaging 3.7 yards/rush and completing just 57.2% of their pass attempts.
I know Northern Illinois' defense hasn't been great, but this is an offense they should have success against. The d-line should have success against that make-shift Central Michigan line and the other two units feed off the d-line living in the backfield. Give me Northern Illinois -5.5!
|10-29-22||Baylor v. Texas Tech -2||Top||45-17||Loss||-110||75 h 11 m||Show|
10* NCAAF Vegas Insider PLAY OF THE MONTH: Texas Tech Red Raiders -2
We cashed a big play on Texas Tech -6 at home in last week's 48-10 blowout win over West Virginia and will gladly fire right back with another big play on the Red Raiders as a mere 2-point home favorite against Baylor this week.
I've been on Texas Tech a lot this year, as I continue to feel like they are one of the better teams no one talks about. Their 3 losses this year have all come on the road to teams that at the time were all ranked in the Top 25 (all 3 still are). You could argue the Red Raiders were the better team in all 3 of those losses. They outgained NC State 353 to 270, Kansas State 473 to 459 and Oklahoma State 527 to 434.
In their lone two Big 12 home games they have had, they beat Texas 37-34, outgaining the Longhorns 479 to 428. They also outgained the Mountaineers by a staggering margin of 594 to 282 in their 38-point win last week. Every team Texas Tech has played this year, they have won the yardage battle. I just feel given this stat, there's no way they should be laying less than a field goal at home here against Baylor.
The Bears are just 1-2 in true road games with the lone win coming against Iowa State. They lost by 6 at BYU, who has really fallen off of late and by 3 at West Virginia, who again just got annihilated by Texas Tech. Give me the Red Raiders -2!
|10-29-22||Kentucky +12.5 v. Tennessee||6-44||Loss||-110||75 h 46 m||Show|
9* NCAAF No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: Kentucky Wildcats +12.5
I will gladly take my chances with Kentucky as a 12.5-point road dog against Tennessee on Saturday. I just feel like this is a few too many for the Vols to be laying in this spot. Tennessee has really taken the SEC by storm early on in 2022. The Vols are 7-0 and with their 52-49 win over Alabama, there's plenty of talk about this team being good enough to dethrone Georgia in the SEC East.
Well it just so happens that massive game against the Bulldogs is looming next week. I just have to think given how well it's been going for the Vols, they are going to have a tough time giving Kentucky their full attention in this game. Keep in mind a loss here and a win over Georgia and they are still in the drivers seat to make the SEC title game, as they would hold the tie-breaker over the Bulldogs.
On the flip side of this, I got to believe the Wildcats are going to be jacked up for this game. Let's also not ignore just how close Kentucky is to being undefeated. In their 3-point loss at Ole Miss, they fumbled it away not once but twice in the redzone in the final minutes of the 4th quarter. The other loss was to South Carolina, where star quarterback Will Levis didn't play.
On top of all that, Kentucky has had a full two weeks to prepare for this game after a bye last week. We have seen the Vols struggle with what I feel are lessor teams than Kentucky, barely beating Pitt 34-27 and escaping with a 38-33 win over Florida. Neither of which they won the yardage battle. It would not surprise me at all if Kentucky were to pull off the upset. Give me the Wildcats +12.5!
|10-29-22||Missouri +4.5 v. South Carolina||23-10||Win||100||72 h 35 m||Show|
8* NCAAF Sharp Money ATS SHOCKER: Missouri Tigers +4.5
I will gladly take the 4.5-points with Missouri on the road against South Carolina. I just feel like this is a great spot to sell-high on the Gamecocks. South Carolina comes into this game having won 4 straight and all the sudden ranked No. 25 in the country. While the Gamecocks are by no means a bad team, I also don't think they one of the 25 best teams in the nation.
South Carolina's 3 non-conference wins are against Georgia State, Charlotte and S Carolina St (FCS). In their two losses they lost by 14 at Arkansas and by 41 at home to Georgia. Their last two wins have come in SEC play, but one of those was against Kentucky without star quarterback Will Levis and the other was last week's win at home over a Texas A&M team that is in shambles.
To me I just think it has the Gamecocks way overvalued here, as I don't think they should be laying more than a field goal against a Missouri team that has flashed some serious potential of late. While the Tigers are just 1-3 in their last 4 games and the only win being by a mere 3-points at home against Vandy, They lost by just 3 at Auburn, gave Georgia the scare of a life in a 4-point home loss and lost by just 7 as a 10.5-point dog at Florida. Missouri has been a dog 3 times in SEC play and covered all 3.
South Carolina hasn't even been a favorite in a single SEC game up to this point. They were 9-point dogs at Arkansas, 25-point dogs at home to Georgia, 4-point dogs at Kentucky without Levis and 3-point dogs at home to Texas A&M. Simply put, they got no business laying more than field goal here. In fact, I like Missouri to win this game outright. Give me the Tigers +4.5!
|10-29-22||Florida +23 v. Georgia||20-42||Win||100||71 h 18 m||Show|
8* NCAAF Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE: Florida Gators +23
I'll take my chances with Florida covering as a 23-point dog against Georgia on Saturday. This is one of the bigger rivalries in college football and is held annually on a neutral field. I just feel like given how much this game means to the Gators, easily their biggest game on the schedule coming into this year, there's just too much value to pass up at this price.
You don't want to completely ignore the stats, but I do think they are less of a factor when handicapping a rivalry game of this magnitude. Florida is going to throw the kitchen sink at Georgia in this game and while the Gators are just 4-3, they haven't lost a game by more than 10 points all season. They also went on the road back in late September and gave Tennessee all they can handle, losing by a final score of 33-38 and outgaining the Vols 594 to 576.
That outcome along is enough reason to think Florida can at the very least keep this within 22 points. The other big thing for me is the magnitude of next week's game against Tennessee for the Bulldogs. That game is shaping up to where the winner will be in the driver seat to represent the East in the SEC title game, while the loser will have to sit and hope that they have done enough to still get invited to the CFB Playoff. Give me the Gators +23!
|10-29-22||Oklahoma State v. Kansas State -1||0-48||Win||100||71 h 7 m||Show|
9* NCAAF Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR: Kansas State Wildcats -1
I will take my chances with Kansas State as a mere 1-point home favorite against Oklahoma State. A lot of people are going to think the line is off. To them it should be the No. 9 ranked Cowboys who are favored against the No. 22 ranked Wildcats.
I don't think that's the case at all, as I feel this line should be closer to what it opened as with K-State as a 3-point home favorite.
For me it really comes down to the defensive side of the football, where I think the home team has a massive edge in this game. K-State comes into this game giving up just 19.7 ppg and 375 ypg and that's come against teams who average 27.9 ppg and 416 ypg. It's also a defense that is even that much tougher to score on at home, where they are allowing 14.3 ppg, 325 ypg and a mere 4.6 yards/play.
As for Oklahoma State's defense, they are giving up 28.7 ppg and 451 ypg vs teams who on average allow 30.3 ppg and 413 ypg. In the Cowboys last 4 games they have given up 457 total yards to Baylor, 527 total yards to Texas Tech, 510 total yards to TCU and 523 total yards to Texas. I know they have won 3 of those 4 games, but they could just as easily be 1-3 in those games, as the trailed Texas Tech by 9 with less than 5 minutes to play in the 4th quarter and Texas by as many as 14. You just can't make a living winning like this and I just feel like it's going to finally catch up to them against a very hungry K-State team on Saturday. Give me the Wildcats -1!
|10-29-22||Northwestern v. Iowa -11||Top||13-33||Win||100||71 h 7 m||Show|
10* NCAAF Smart Money PLAY OF THE MONTH: Iowa Hawkeyes -11
I'm going to lay the 11-points at home with the Iowa Hawkeyes against the Northwestern Wildcats. A lot of people are probably going to think I'm crazy laying double-digits with an Iowa team that has been one of the worst offensive teams in the country thru the first two months of the season, but I love the Hawkeyes in this matchup with the Wildcats.
I'm not about to sit here and say Iowa's offense is any good, but I do think people overlook just how difficult the schedule has been for the Hawkeyes offense this year. Iowa's last 3 opponents all rank in the Top 5 in the country in total defense for this season. Ohio State being No. 2, Illinois being No. 1 and Michigan being No. 5. They have also faced two other Top 10 defense in Rutgers at No. 7 and Iowa State at No. 9. Not to mention they opened the season against South Dakota State, who is currently the No. 1 ranked team in the country at the FCS level and ranks third in the FCS in total defense.
Northwestern comes into this game ranked 97th in the country in total defense, giving up 410 yards/game. They are also allowing 29.5 ppg and 442.5 ypg in Big Ten play. Keep in mind that's with them holding Penn State to just 17 in a monsoon. The only other team they have held under 31 points this season is Miami (OH).
The Wildcats also feature one of the worst run defenses in the country, giving up a staggering 189 ypg on the season and 222.8 yards/game vs FBS opponents. In the two games this season Iowa has been able to rush for more than 100 yards, they have scored 27 points.
I also think the offense will likely see a full game with Alex Padilla at quarterback. Padilla replaced starter Spencer Petras in the loss to Ohio State. Petras has been one of the worst starting quarterbacks I can remember. Not saying Padilla is the answer, but Iowa's offense desperately needed a change under center.
With all that said about this potentially being a breakout game for Iowa's offense, I believe the Hawkeyes could win and cover this spread with their defense alone. Iowa's defense is special. For them to be giving up 16.1 ppg, 278 ypg and 4.1 yards/play with how bad that offense has been is truly remarkable. The Hawkeyes should make life a living hell for a Northwestern offense that hasn't been much better than Iowa's in 2022. Wildcats are only scoring 18.6 ppg.
This is also a Northwestern offense that has struggled to take care of the football. The Wildcats have a staggering 17 turnovers in 6 games and have turned it over at least 2 times in all 6 games. Not many defenses in the country who are better at creating turnovers than Iowa's. This to me has blowout written all over it. Give me Iowa -11!
|10-29-22||TCU v. West Virginia +7.5||41-31||Loss||-110||68 h 58 m||Show|
8* NCAAF Early Bird ATS SLAUGHTER: West Virginia Mountaineers +7.5
I will gladly take my chances with West Virginia cashing as a 7.5-point home dog against No. 7 ranked TCU. Most are going to feel like this is a short number to be laying with the Horned Frogs, as TCU comes into this game a perfect 7-0, while the Mountaineers just embarrassed in a 48-10 loss at Texas Tech this past Saturday as a mere 5-point dog.
This to me is all about the spot. On one hand we should have a hungry and highly motivated West Virginia team looking to bounce back from their worst showing of the season. On the other hand we have a TCU team that has to be running on fumes right now. The Horned Frogs just finished up a 4-game stretch, where every team they played at the time of the game were ranked in the Top 20 (Oklahoma, Kansas, Oklahoma St and Kansas St).
They also are coming off two exhausing come from behind wins in their last two games. Two weeks ago TCU was able to erase a 17-point deficit to force OT and eventually beat Oklahoma State 43-40. Last week they trailed K-State by 18-points before rallying to win 38-28.
I think it's going to be tough for them to not suffer a letdown here against West Virginia, especially after how bad the Mountaineers looked last week. Thing is, Morgantown is no easy place to play. Just ask Baylor, who lost at West Virginia a few weeks back.
TCU has also not been nearly as impressive away from home. While the Horned Frogs are 3-0 SU on the road, they are getting outgained on average 455 to 451 away from home and those 3 games have come against Colorado, SMU and Kansas.
I'm confident J.T. Daniels and the West Virginia offense will be able to score enough to keep this close enough to cover and maybe even win outright. Give me the Mountaineers +7.5!
|10-27-22||Utah v. Washington State +7.5||Top||21-17||Win||100||56 h 5 m||Show|
10* NCAAF Thursday Night MAX UNIT Top Play: Washington State +7.5
I'll take my chances with Washington State cashing as a 7.5-point home dog against the Utes in Thursday's Pac-12 action. I just feel like this is way too many points for Utah be laying on the road in a prime time game. Pullman is no easy place to play for opposing teams. Cougars have covered 3 straight at home vs Utah, winning two of those outright.
The game that really stands out to me is their home game against Oregon back on 9/24. Washington State would end up losing that game 41-44, but should have won outright. The Cougars were up 34-22 with less than 5 minutes to play and had never trailed before Oregon scored 3 times in less than 3 minutes to steal the win. Given what the Ducks have done to every other team since that ugly loss to Georgia, that performance tells you a lot about this Cougars team.
I really think it speaks volumes to their defense. Because they ended up giving up 44, people overlook that Oregon had just 22 with less than 5 minutes to play in the 4th quarter. It's really hard to run on this Washington State front and their passing game on offense should be able to exploit a struggling Utah secondary. This is also not the same dominant front we have grown accustomed to with the Utes, as they are giving up 143 ypg and 4.7 yards/carry on the ground. Give me Washington State +7.5!
|10-22-22||Minnesota v. Penn State -4||Top||17-45||Win||100||53 h 6 m||Show|
10* NCAAF Prime Time PLAY OF THE MONTH: Penn State Nittany Lions -4
I will gladly take my chances with the Nittany Lions as a slim 4-point home favorite against the Gophers on Saturday. This to me is a great time buy-low on Penn State after last week's embarrassing 17-41 loss at Michigan, where they allowed the Wolverines to run for 418 yards. You can bet it was not a fun week of practice for the Nittany Lions leading up to this game. I'm confident we are going to get an A+ effort here from Penn State at home, especially with this being a prime time game under the lights.
I also think this Minnesota team is a good fade right now. The Gophers have been way overpriced in their last two games. They lost 10-20 as a 8.5-point home favorite against Purdue and then coming out of their bye they lost 14-26 at Illinois as a 6-point favorite. Note that game against the Illini wasn't even as close as the final score would indicate, as Illinois outgained them 563-269.
I just don't see how that Gophers offense will be able to go on the road under the lights against a motivated Penn State team and keep this close. Keep in mind prior to giving up all those yards on the ground against Michigan, the Nittany Lions had been great against the run. If you can slow down Minnesota's run game, there's really not much their offense can do. I think this line at the least should be a touchdown. Give me Penn State -4!
|10-22-22||West Virginia v. Texas Tech -6||Top||10-48||Win||100||49 h 36 m||Show|
10* NCAAF - Smart Money PLAY OF THE MONTH: Texas Tech Red Raiders -6
I will gladly take my chances with Texas Tech covering the 6-point spread at home against West Virginia. This to me is a great spot to buy-low on the Red Raiders after back-to-back road losses to K-State and Oklahoma State. Not to mention Texas Tech is coming off of their bye week, giving them a full two weeks to prepare for this game. It's also a good sell-high spot on the Mountaineers after their big upset win over Baylor.
I just don't see West Virginia going on the road and making a game of it with how much their defense has struggled to get off of the field. The Mountaineers come into this game giving up 44.3 ppg, 486 ypg and 7.5 yards/play in Big 12 play. They have been absolutely torched thru the air, as opposing QBs are completing 65% of their attempts for a staggering 10.4 yards/attempt.
That defense will be up against a Texas Tech offense that is putting up 44.3 ppg and 518 ypg at home this season. Red Raiders' offense is built around a potent passing attack that comes in completing 65% of their attempts for a staggering 365 ypg. Texas Tech is 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS at home, outscoring opponents on average by almost 20 ppg. Give me Texas Tech -6!
|10-22-22||Duke +9 v. Miami-FL||45-21||Win||100||46 h 10 m||Show|
9* NCAAF Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: Duke Blue Devils +9
I'm going to take the 9-points with Duke on the road against Miami. I've had a lot of success backing the Blue Devils this season. I'm a perfect 3-0 when backing Duke this year and have not went against them.
Expectations couldn't have been much lower on the Blue Devils coming into this season. Most had Duke as one of, if not, the worst teams in the ACC and their season win total was set at just 3. They have already surpassed their win total, as they come into this game 4-3 and could very easily be 5-1. They lost in OT at Georgia Tech and gave up a late TD drive in a 35-38 loss to UNC last week.
You really have to tip your cap to first year head coach Mike Elko, who came over after spending the last 3 years as the DC at Texas A&M. Elko inherited a defense that was awful in 2021, giving up 39.8 ppg and 517 ypg and has them allowing just 22.3 ppg and 402 ypg thru 7 games.
New offensive coordinator Kevin Johns also deserves some love. Duke finished last year averaging just 22.8 ppg. They are scoring 32.9 ppg, putting up 435 yards/game and averaging 6.5 yards/play. They have gotten much better QB play than last year and are running the ball extremely well. Duke is averaging 5.5 yards/carry, a full yard better than what their opponents are giving up on average.
So while this team is greatly improved on both sides of the ball, I believe they remained way undervalued in the market because of just how low expectations were. It also helps they come into this game having lost 3 of their last 4.
It's the exact opposite for Miami, who has proven to be one of the most overrated teams in 2022. Miami was ranked No. 16 in the country to open the season. They climbed to No. 13 after a couple cupcake wins to open the season vs Bethune and Southern Miss. They have lost 3 of their last 4 since with the only win coming by 6 against a bad Virginia Tech team. They are just 1-5 ATS, which includes a shocking 31-45 loss at home to Middle Tennessee as a 26-point favorite.
I really feel like when you dive into the numbers for these teams, there's just not a lot that separates these two. If anything you could argue Duke has been better. Blue Devils are +0.6 yards/play better than what their opponents allow -0.1 yards/play worse on defense. Miami is -0.1 yards/play worse on offense and -0.2 yards/play worse on defense. Give me Duke +9!
|10-22-22||Syracuse +13.5 v. Clemson||21-27||Win||100||46 h 40 m||Show|
9* NCAAF - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE: Syracuse Orange +13.5
I'll take my chances with Syracuse as a 13.5-point road dog against Clemson. I'm well aware that the Orange are going to be the public side in this game and rarely will you find me backing a public dog, but there are certain instances where I think it's acceptable.
To me I just feel like this line is not so much the books trying to beg you take Syracuse, but more of a tax bettors are being forced to pay on Clemson right now. The Tigers are a massive public team and simply put, there's going to be premium on them when they are playing well and Clemson comes into this game 7-0 SU, ranked #5 in the country and off 3 straight covers.
Syracuse is 6-0 and ranked No. 14 in the country, but the big difference with them is they came into this season with almost no expectations. We saw just how little the market respected this team last week, when they were 5-0, ranked #18 and just a 2.5-point home favorite against a NC State team that was down starting quarterback Devin Leary.
I just think when you really look at the numbers, there's no reason for Clemson to be laying double-digits in this matchup. The Tigers are scoring 38.6 ppg vs teams that give up 28.0, which is a +10.6 above average. They are giving up 19.7 ppg vs teams that average 25.5 ppg. They are gaining 6.0 yards/play on offense and giving up 4.9 yards/play.
Syracuse is scoring 36.0 ppg vs teams that on average only give up 30.0 ppg. They are allowing 13.2 ppg vs teams that score 21.4 ppg. Orange are gaining 6.6 yards/play and allowing 4.6 yards/play.
Keep in mind these two teams have played a very similar strength in schedule to this point. We have seen Syracuse give Clemson trouble in the past when they are going well and as crazy as it might sound, I think they can win this game outright. Give me the Orange +13.5!
|10-22-22||Houston -3 v. Navy||38-20||Win||100||46 h 38 m||Show|
8* NCAAF No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: Houston Cougars -3
I'm going to lay the 3-points with Houston on the road against Navy. I've bet against the Cougars a decent amount so far and a big reason for that is I thought they were way overvalued coming into the year. This to me feels like a fair price on Houston and I just love the spot for them.
Last time we saw the Cougars they had a miraculous 33-32 win at Memphis. After trailing by double-digits the majority of the game, Houston scored 2 touchdowns in the final 2 minutes of regulation (think Jets vs Browns in Week 2 of the NFL).
That's a win that will get everyone on the same page and it just so happened to come right before their bye week. This has to feel like a defining point of their season. I would be shocked if we didn't get the best the Cougars have to offer in this game.
The other big thing with the bye is that it allowed them 2 weeks to prepare for Navy's triple-option. They have also played Navy each of the last 7 years, so it's not quite a shock to the system like it is for other teams.
Navy has covered each of their last 4 games, but they were getting double-digits in 3 of them and the other was +4.5 at home vs Tulsa. I just don't trust that defense for the Midshipen. They are giving up 6.4 yards/play and are getting torched thru the air with opposing QBs completing 66.3% of their attempts with a 9.7 average. Houston's Clayton Tune just threw for 366 and 3 scores in their win over Memphis. Would definitely lean OVER as well in this game. Give me Houston -3!
|10-22-22||Iowa +30 v. Ohio State||10-54||Loss||-110||46 h 37 m||Show|
8* NCAAF Early Bird ATS MASSACRE: Iowa Hawkeyes +30
I will take my chances with Iowa as a massive 30-point underdog against Ohio State on Saturday. As bad as the Hawkeyes are offensively, this is too many points for them to be catching in this matchup. I'm not so sure it's even a lock that the Buckeyes score 30 points in this game.
That's how good this Iowa defense is. The Hawkeyes come into this game allowing just 9.8 ppg. Sure the schedule hasn't been overly tough, but those teams on average are scoring 23.2 ppg. The Hawkeyes are holding their opponents on average 14 points below what those teams typically score. If they can replicate that, that would put Ohio State down to like 35 points from their 48.8 average.
That means all we would need is a mere 7-points from Iowa to get the cover. Ohio State's defense is good, but they are giving up 15.7 ppg. If Iowa can get to that mark (16), it would take 47+ from the Buckeyes for us to lose.
I also think you got to look at how well Iowa played in their game against Michigan, especially in comparison to what we just saw the Wolverines do to Penn State this past Saturday. Iowa held Michigan to just 27 points and 327 total yards. The same Michigan offense that just had 41 points and 563 total yards against the Nittany Lions.
It probably isn't going to be pretty and we may need the backdoor to be open, but I feel good about Iowa keeping this within the number. Give me the Hawkeyes +30!
|10-15-22||North Carolina v. Duke +7||38-35||Win||100||99 h 49 m||Show|
9* NCAAF Prime Time ATS SLAUGHTER: Duke Blue Devils +7
I will gladly take my chances with Duke catching 7-points at home against the Tar Heels. I really think the Blue Devils have a legit shot of winning this game outright. I just don't think North Carolina is as good as their 5-1 record. They were a 2-point conversion away from having to go OT against App State after going into the 4th quarter leading 41-21. They trailed Georgia State 21-28 in the 2nd half of a 35-28 win and last week somehow managed to hold on for a 27-24 win at Miami, despite getting outgained 538-470.
Sure, the offense is great and quarterback Drake Maye is really good, but a lot of those numbers are a result of their defense. Just as quickly as the Tar Heels are scoring, their defense is giving it right back up on the other side. UNC is giving up 32.0 ppg, 465 ypg and 6.1 yards/play. That jumps to 37.7 ppg, 536 ypg and 6.8 yards/play on the road.
It's hard to go on the road and blowout a quality team like Duke when your defense struggles to get stops. I also don't think people realize just how good this Blue Devils team is. First year head coach Mike Elko isn't getting the props he deserves. Duke won just 3 games last year and are 4-2 with their two losses coming by 8-points at Kansas and by 3 at Georgia Tech.
Elko was a long-time defensive coordinator and has made his presence felt on that side of the ball. Duke is giving up just 19.7 ppg and 380 ypg, which is truly remarkable when you consider the Blue Devils returned just 5 starters from a defense that gave up 39.8 ppg and 517 ypg last year.
Another reason for Duke's success is they appear to have found a legit starting quarterback in sophomore Riley Leonard. He's completing 66.3% of his attempts with a 8-3 TD-INT ratio. He's also rushed for 289 yards and 4 scores. This offense should have no problem moving the ball in this game. If the defense can get some stops early, they could be in control of this game the entire way. Give me Duke +7!
|10-15-22||USC v. Utah -3||Top||42-43||Loss||-118||99 h 40 m||Show|
10* NCAAF - Pac-12 PLAY OF THE MONTH: Utah Utes -3
I will gladly lay the 3-points at home with No. 20 Utah as they host No. 7 USC. The fact that the Trojans are undefeated and ranked in the Top 10 and are getting points against a lessor ranked team is enough on it's own to roll the dice with the Utes. The books are begging the public to take USC and they are doing so at close to a 65% clip. More times than not in a game of this magnitude, you want to fade the public.
Not that I don't think USC is a good team and a program that is very soon going to be a consistent playoff contender under head coach Lincoln Riley. I just think people are jumping the gun a little bit with this team.
Just look at the last 3 games for this team. USC needed a late TD to escape with a 17-14 win at Oregon State, they only led Arizona State 21-17 with less than 2 minutes to play in the 3rd quarter and were only up 3 on Washington State midway thru the 3rd quarter.
Utah comes into this season with some lofty expectations, as a lot of people were picking this team to go undefeated and make the playoffs. The Utes have got a good taste of humble pie early on. They lost a heartbreaker in their opener at Florida 26-29 and then last week lost 32-42 at UCLA.
While it's early, a loss here would really put the Utes behind the 8-ball in getting to the Pac-12 title. They would be 2-games back in the loss column to USC, Oregon and UCLA and would lose the tie-breaker to both the Trojans and Bruins.
I have a lot of trust in Kyle Whittingham's team to step up and deliver a big win at home with their backs against the ball. Utah is 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS at home this year and are now 18-1 SU at home over the last 3+ seasons. Give me the Utes -3!
|10-15-22||Stanford +17 v. Notre Dame||16-14||Win||100||98 h 7 m||Show|
8* NCAAF - Public Money ATS MASSACRE: Stanford Cardinal +17
I can't help myself but to take the 17-points with Stanford on the road against Notre Dame. I know the Cardinal are just 1-4 with their only win coming in their very first game of the season against Colgate, but I'm not sure there's a team out there that has played a tougher schedule thru 5 games than this team.
After their game against Colgate, they had to host USC and then play back-to-back road games against Washington and Oregon. They then lost at home to Oregon State, where they should have won outright. Stanford led 24-10 going into the 4th quarter and gave up a 56-yard TD pass with 13 seconds left to lose 27-28.
I'm not saying I think the Cardinal are going to go into South Bend and pull off the upset, I just feel that 17 is way too many for Notre Dame to be laying. The Irish are a good, but not great team.
I think the assumption here is that Notre Dame will be able to move the ball at will against this Stanford defense. I don't know if that will be the case. While the Cardinal are giving up 32.8 ppg, that's because of their schedule. Stanford's opponents on the season are averaging 33.1 ppg. Notre Dame is only scoring 25.6 ppg vs teams that on average give up 22.5 ppg.
Stanford quarterback Tanner McKee is also one of the better signal callers no one is talking about. He's completed 64% of his attempts for over 1,200 yards with 10 TDs to 5 IT and has a 7-2 TD-INT ratio over his last 3 games. Notre Dame has forced a whopping 2 TOs all season. Give me Stanford +17!
|10-15-22||Nebraska v. Purdue -13||37-43||Loss||-110||80 h 13 m||Show|
9* NCAAF - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: Purdue Boilermakers -13
I got no problem laying the 13-points at home with Purdue against Nebraska. I've been on the Boilermakers quite a bit early on this year and I just think there's a big enough gap in talent between these two teams that it's just not asking a lot for Purdue to win this game by at least 2 touchdowns.
What have we seen out of Nebraska to think they can make a game of this? The Cornhuskers are 2-1 in Big Ten play, but have played 3 of the worst teams in the conference in Northwestern, Indiana and Rutgers. The best team Nebraska has played is Oklahoma and they lost 14-49 to the Sooners on their home field. A loss that looks a lot a worse now than it did then, especially with how bad Oklahoma's defense has been the past couple of weeks.
It certainly won't be easy for Nebraska's offense in this matchup. Purdue comes in allowing 22.0 ppg and 328 ypg and have done so against teams averaging 29.5 ppg and 407 ypg.
This is also a Purdue offense that is scoring 32.5 ppg on 420 ypg against teams that allow 24.3 ppg and 360 ypg. Nebraska is giving up 29.3 ppg and 449 ypg vs teams that average 24.9 ppg and 386 ypg.
I just don't think people realize how good this Purdue team. The Boilermakers are two last second TD drives away from being 6-0. Penn State scored a TD with 57 seconds left to defeat Purdue 35-31 and Syracuse connected on a 25-yard TD pass with 7 seconds left to win 32-29. Give me the Boilermakers -13!
|10-15-22||NC State v. Syracuse -3||9-24||Win||100||77 h 38 m||Show|
8* NCAAF Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR: Syracuse Orange -3
I got no problem laying a mere 3-points at home with No. 18 Syracuse against No. 15 NC State. I'm shocked that more than 60% of the tickets are coming in on the Wolfpack in this one. Syracuse is 5-0 and 4-1 ATS thru their first 5 games. While it's not come against the most difficult of schedules, their win at home over Purdue is impressive. They also have a 31-7 blowout win at home over Louisville. Keep in mind this was a team a lot of people had pegged to finish last in the ACC Atlantic. Books can be a bit slow to adjust on these historically bad programs that have a breakout season.
Not only that, but I think NC State is a bit overvalued. The Wolfpack opened the season ranked No. 13 and were a lot of people's darkhorse to win the ACC. They were extremely lucky to win 21-20 at ECU in Week 1, they were outgained 353-270 in a win over Texas Tech, trailed Clemson 13-30 late in the 4th quarter before a garbage TD made the final score 20-30. Last week they were outgained 387 to 307 at home by Florida State in a 19-17 win (trailed 17-3).
With how big that game was at Clemson and then having to fight and claw their way to a win last week against Florida State, this has flat spot written all over it for NC State, especially with how tough Syracuse is at home when they are playing well.
This is also a well rested and prepared Orange team, as they had a bye last week and the week before had basically a scrimmage game at home against Wagner (won 59-0). If it wasn't for Clemson being on deck, this would probably be a 10* Top Play, but I'm confident there will be no looking ahead for Syracuse. Give me the Orange -3!
|10-15-22||Minnesota -6 v. Illinois||14-26||Loss||-110||73 h 44 m||Show|
9* NCAAF - Smart Money VEGAS INSIDER: Minnesota Golden Gophers -6
The simple fact that we have an unranked Minnesota team favored on the road against No. 24 Illinois should be enough to have you strongly considering backing the Gophers. It would be one thing for Minnesota to be a 2-3 point favorite, but pushing a TD makes this one of the more head-scratching lines on the board this Saturday.
This tells me the books not only think the Gophers win this game, but they are pretty confident it isn't going to be close. I'm with them. I've made a ton of money backing Illinois this year, but this is a really tough spot for the Illini.
Not only are they coming off two huge wins, they are dealing with a ton of injuries. It's unlikely starting quarterback Tommy DeVito will be back for this game and there's a pretty noticeable drop off from him and backup Artur Sitkowski. They also figure to be missing wideout Isaiah Williams, whose 38 receptions are 16 more than the next best guy.
With the gas tank on empty and down some really big pieces, I think this has the potential to be ugly. Minnesota is going to be a pissed off bunch coming into this game. Not only are the Gophers coming off a bye, the last time they played was that ugly 10-20 loss at home to Purdue. I don't think it was a fun two weeks of practice for this team, which I still think has the potential to be the best team in the Big Ten West.
They also will not be overlooking this Illinois team after last year's 6-14 loss at home to the Illini as a 14.5-point favorite.
It's also worth noting that Minnesota didn't have star running back Mohamed Ibrahim for that game against Purdue. He's expected to be back for this matchup.
I just think with how hard it's going to be for Illinois to put up points, it's really not asking a lot of the Gophers to win here by at least a touchdown. Give me Minnesota -6!
|10-15-22||Penn State +7 v. Michigan||Top||17-41||Loss||-110||91 h 47 m||Show|
10* NCAAF Sharp Money PLAY OF THE MONTH: Penn State Nittany Lions +7
I love the value here with No. 10 Penn State catching a full 7-points on the road against No. 5 Michigan. I'm shocked this line isn't closer to a field goal. Both of these teams are undefeated. Nittany Lions are 5-0 and the Wolverines are 6-0.
I'm not saying Michigan isn't a really good team, I just don't think they are as good as the team from last year that won the Big Ten and made the playoffs. That team had to rally from behind in the final minutes of the 4th quarter to beat Penn State 21-17 last year.
Wolverines couldn't have played an easier non-conference schedule with games against Colorado State, Hawaii and UConn. They have since gone 3-0 in Big Ten play, but only got by Maryland by 7 at home. They beat Iowa 27-14 on the road, but that's a Hawkeyes team that is historically bad offensively. Last week they beat Indiana 31-10, but that was a 10-10 game midway thru the 3rd quarter.
Penn State was every bit as impressive as Michigan in non-conference, beating Ohio 46-10, Central Michigan 33-14 and going on the road and beating Auburn 41-12. They also won 35-31 at Purdue, who I think is better than all 3 of the Big Ten teams Michigan has played thus far.
The Nittany Lions did just squeak by Northwestern 17-7 as a 25-point favorite last time out, but that was played in awful conditions and the offense turned it over 5 times. It was also two weeks ago. Penn State had a bye last week, giving them two full weeks to prepare for this game.
I give the Nittany Lions a real shot at winning this game, but at the very least I think this a one score game in the 4th quarter. Give me Penn State +7!
|10-12-22||UL-Lafayette +10.5 v. Marshall||Top||23-13||Win||100||28 h 15 m||Show|
10* NCAAF Sun Belt PLAY OF THE MONTH: UL-Lafayette +10.5
I love the 10.5 with Lafayette in Wednesday's stand alone college football matchup. This being the only football game on the board, the books know this will be a heavily bet game. They also know the public will likely be looking to back Marshall, as that's a team the public remembers going on the road and beating then No. then No. 8 Notre Dame 26-21 as a 20.5-point dog. As a result I think we are seeing the Herd way overpriced in this matchup.
Louisiana-Lafayette is just 2-3 and comes into this game having lost 3 in a row. However, they are far from a pushover. You could make a case that the Ragin-Cajuns' are a few plays away from being 5-0. They trailed Rice 14-19 going into the 4th quarter, led 17-7 in a 17-21 loss at ULM and lost on a last second field goal to South Alabama.
They come into this game last in the Sun Belt West at 0-2 in league play. They have to be feeling like their season is on the line in this game. Hard to not like an underrated dog that feels like it's back against the wall.
I'm also don't think Marshall is as good as what people think. Yes, the win over Notre Dame was impressive, but given what we have seen out of both the Irish and the Herd since that game, you got to think Notre Dame coming off that gut-wrenching loss to Ohio State in Week 1 had a little something to do with how that game played out. If this team was that good, they wouldn't have followed that game up with a 31-34 loss at Bowling Green (favored by 17) and a 7-16 loss to Troy, where they didn't go over 100 yards passing or rushing in the game.
Let's also not ignore that upset of Notre Dame is their only win over another FBS team. Their other two wins are against Norfolk State and Gardner Webb.
It's also worth pointing out that Marshall's style of play isn't really built to blow teams out. They are a run-first offense and are very sound defensively. The fewer the possessions the more valuable the 10.5 points become. Turnovers could also be huge in this game. Ragin Cajuns' have forced at least 2 takeaways in all 5 of their games. Give me Lafayette +10.5!
|10-08-22||Iowa v. Illinois -3||Top||6-9||Push||0||55 h 45 m||Show|
10* NCAAF Big Ten PLAY OF THE YEAR: Illinois Fighting Illini -3
I love Illinois as a mere 3-point home favorite against Iowa. Illinois is a team I was extremely high on coming into this season. They were way better than expected in 2021, which was the first under current head coach Brett Bielema. They got a lot of key pieces back from that team and made a huge upgrade at quarterback with Syracuse transfer Tommy DeVito. It was really all this team was missing, as they had a solid rushing attack and very underrated defense (allowed just 21.9 ppg last year) last year.
Illinois has started out the 2022 season 4-1 and really should be 5-0. They couldn't have played much worse in a 20-23 loss at Indiana, yet still it took a 12-play 75-yard TD drive with less than a minute to play for the Hoosiers to win that game. They made a real statement last week, going on the road and beating Wisconsin 34-10.
The biggest thing for me is that for as good as Iowa is defensively, they are even worse offensively. I don't know where the offense is going to come from for the Hawkeyes against this Illinois defense, which comes in allowing 8.4 ppg, 235 ypg and 3.9 yards/play.
Keep in mind in Iowa's 27-10 win at Rutgers a couple weeks back, they were actually outgained 361-277 by the Scarlet Knights. If not for 2 defensive TDs, they very well may have lost that game outright. I also think it's a bit of a letdown spot for Iowa, who just played a Top 5 team at home, which also happened to be the same team they lost to in last year's Big Ten title game. Give me Illinois -3!
|10-08-22||Washington -13.5 v. Arizona State||38-45||Loss||-120||52 h 32 m||Show|
8* NCAAF - No Doubt ATS Blowout: Washington Huskies -13.5
I got no problem laying 13.5-points on the road with Washington against Arizona State. I know this is a bit of a square play, but I just don't think the number here is near enough for the Sun Devils to cover.
Arizona State is 1-4 to start the year with their only win coming at home against a FCS opponent in Northern Arizona. They do have a trio of losses against teams that are currently ranked in the Top 15 in Oklahoma State, Utah and USC. Thing is, they weren't competitive in any of those games. They were outgained 465-354 by the Cowboys, 465-267 by Utah (was 34-6 with less than 5 minutes to play) and 485-331 by USC.
I just don't know how the Sun Devils are going to generate enough offense to keep this under a 14 point margin. On one side you have a Washington offense that is one of the best in the country. The offense wasn't at fault in their loss at UCLA last week. Huskies are scoring 41.6 ppg and averaging 507 ypg vs teams who on average are allowing 28.8 ppg and giving up just 413 ypg.
Just to compare that with Arizona State's offense, the Sun Devils are scoring 23.2 ppg and putting up 345 ypg vs teams that are allowing 26.1 ppg and 373 ypg. Homefield is not a big deal in this one, as I think most of the Arizona State fans have given up on this team. I like a motivated Huskies team coming off their first loss to make a statement in this one. Give me Washington -13.5!
|10-08-22||Texas Tech +9.5 v. Oklahoma State||31-41||Loss||-110||51 h 48 m||Show|
9* NCAAF Situational ATS SLAUGHTER: Texas Tech Red Raiders +9.5
I really think we are getting some big time value with Texas Tech as a 9.5-point road dog against Oklahoma State. I think it's worth noting that I cashed a 10* Top Play last week with the Cowboys as a 2.5-point road dog at Baylor.
The biggest reason I liked that play was the revenge angle for Oklahoma State after getting upset in the Big 12 title game last year by the Bears. The thing is, prior to that game I think people were a little hesitant on the Cowboys and how good they were given their easy schedule to start the year.
I believe that validation now has them way overpriced against a Texas Tech team that I've really been impressed with this year. The Red Raiders are 3-2, despite having played 4 ranked teams in 5 games. Their two losses were a 14-27 loss at NC State, where they outgained the Wolfpack 353 to 270. The other loss was a 28-37 loss at K-State, where they outgained the Wildcats 473-459.
Turnovers absolutely killed them in both of those games, as they turned it over 4 times in each loss. That's definitely a concern going into this game, but they are facing an Oklahoma State defense that despite a soft schedule has only forced 4 turnovers total in 4 games.
I also think the Oklahoma State defense is not anything close to the defense that carried this team to the Big 12 title game last year. The Cowboys are giving up just 23.3 ppg, but that's come against teams who on the season are averaging just 23.9 ppg. They are allowed 397 ypg vs teams that total just 356 ypg.
They face a Texas Tech offense that is scoring 35.0 ppg and averaging 476 ypg vs teams that only give up 27.2 ppg and 394 ypg.
I also think there has to be a bit of a letdown concern here for Oklahoma State. I can't underestimate how big that game was to them against Baylor and they got what could be a massive road game on deck against undefeated and currently No. 17 ranked TCU. It would not surprise me at all if Texas Tech won this game. Give me the Red Raiders +9.5!
|10-08-22||Purdue +3.5 v. Maryland||31-29||Win||100||48 h 52 m||Show|
9* NCAAF - Public Money ATS MASSACRE: Purdue Boilermakers +3.5
I will take my chances with Purdue as a 3.5-point road dog against Maryland on Saturday. I just think it's time to sell high on the Terps. Maryland has started the season 4-1 and are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games. I think a lot of people verify this start because Maryland went on the road and competed for 60 minutes in a 27-34 loss to Michigan. I get the Wolverines are ranked No. 4 in the country, but I'm not so sure they as good as people think. Michigan couldn't have started with an easier schedule in their first 3 games and while they got the win and cover last week at Iowa, they didn't dominate like you would expect.
Maryland's two best wins are against SMU by 7 and by 14 at home to a down bad Michigan State team. One of the biggest things that gets overlooked with last week game against the Spartans is the Terps only managed to score 6 points in the 2nd against a Michigan State defense that can't defend the pass.
As for Purdue, the Boilermakers are a couple of plays away from being 5-0 and at the very least ranked in the Top 15. Purdue lost 31-35 at home to Penn State in their opener, giving up a game-winning TD with less than a minute to play. Outgained the Nittany Lions 426-406. They also 29-32 at Syracuse, where the Orange scored a game-winning TD from 25-yards out with just 7 seconds to play. Last week Purdue reminded everyone how good they are by going into Minnesota and beating the Gophers 20-10 as a 8.5-point dog.
I like the Boilermakers to do the same and win this game outright, but I also think that if Maryland were to win this game, it won't be via a blowout, which makes the 3.5 so valuable. Give me Purdue +3.5!
|10-08-22||Michigan v. Indiana +23||31-10||Win||100||48 h 50 m||Show|
9* NCAAF Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: Indiana Hoosiers +23
I'm going to roll the dice with Indiana as a 23-point home dog against the Wolverines. I'm just not convinced Michigan is as good as people think. The Wolverines couldn't have played an easier 3-game start to their season with Colorado State, Hawaii and UConn on their schedule. They only won by 7 at home against Maryland as a 17-point favorite in their first real test of the season. While they did win and cover at Iowa last week as a 10-point favorite, they did not dominate that game like you would expect given the Hawkeyes horrific offense.
I'm not saying they aren't going to beat Indiana on the road, I just don't think they are going to run away with this thing like the line suggests. The Hoosiers to be are still being viewed like the team that went just 2-10. Indiana is a much improved team this year. They are 3-2 with their only two losses coming on the road at Cincinnati and Nebraska.
They are scoring 27.2 ppg, which is nearly a full 10 points more than they averaged last year (17.3 ppg). The defense is also been decent, giving up just 30.4 ppg vs teams averaging 32.8 ppg.
This to me is also a bit of a flat spot for Michigan, who has be feeling pretty about themselves after that big road win at Iowa. Could have a hard time not looking ahead to next week's big home against an undefeated Penn State team that is ranked #10. Give me Indiana +23!
|10-08-22||Texas -7 v. Oklahoma||49-0||Win||100||47 h 10 m||Show|
8* NCAAF - Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR: Texas Longhorns -7
I'm going to lay the 7 points with Texas in their annual matchup with Oklahoma, as the two teams face off at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas early Saturday. Even though the Sooners come in having just lost 34-41 at home to K-State and 24-55 at TCU, I still think the public looks at this line and gravitates towards a full touchdown with Oklahoma.
I see it the opposite. In fact, I think Texas should be a bigger favorite than they are and I'd be surprised if this line doesn't get bigger as we get closer to kickoff.
One of the big reasons I think the line will move, is I don't think Oklahoma quarterback Dillon Gabriel is going to play. Gabriel is listed as questionable, but he suffered a concussion on vicious hit while taking a knee on a run. It's pretty rare we see a guy take that kind of hit to the head and play 7 days later and I think it's even less likely given all that's taken place with Tua in the NFL the last two weeks.
I don't know that Gabriel would have kept me from playing Texas in this game, but I do think him not being on the field only increases the likelihood that the Longhorns win this game by double-digits. Backup Davis Beville was just 7 of 16 for a mere 50 yards in relief of Gabriel last week against TCU.
Considering this Texas defense is only giving up 3.3 yards/carry, holding teams 1.2 yards/carry under their season average, I really wonder how Oklahoma will score enough to keep this game close.
The other big thing in this game that I don't think is getting enough hype is Texas getting back starting quarterback Quinn Ewers, who has not played since going out in the Alabama game. I could be jumping the gun here and giving Ewers too much respect on a small sample size, but I firmly believe Texas would have beat the Crimson Tide had he not got hurt and would be coming into this game 4-0 and ranked in the Top 10, instead of 3-2 and not ranked at all.
I think Ewers and this Texas offense is going to go up down the field against this Oklahoma defense. In their loss to K-State, they gave up 41 points and 509 total yards. The same Wildcats offense that could only manage 10-points and 336 yards at home against Tulane the game before. Then they give up 55 points and 668 total yards to TCU and were lucky to only give up that much. The Horned Frogs had 41 points and 479 total yards at the half of that game.
The one thing that I think could be our downfall with this play is if Texas were to overlook this game because of how bad the Sooners have looked and Gabriel not playing. I just don't think that will be the case. The Longhorns haven't won in this series since 2018 and have sufferent some tough beats the last two years. They lost 45-53 in a 4OT thriller back in 2020 and then last year lost 48-55 after leading 28-7 in the 1st quarter (outscored 25-7 in the 4th quarter). Give me Texas -7!
|10-05-22||SMU +3 v. Central Florida||19-41||Loss||-110||28 h 12 m||Show|
8* NCAAF Wednesday Night CFB ANNIHILATOR: SMU Mustangs +3
Give me SMU +3 on the road Wednesday Night against UCF. This game was originally suppose to be played last Saturday. They pushed it back to Sunday because of the hurricane, but decided it was best to push it back a few more days to Wednesday.
It can be hard predicting how a team will respond to a situation like this, but I just feel like there's too much value with the Mustangs at this price to pass up a wager on SMU.
I've really been impressed with what I've seen out of the Mustangs so far this season. They went on the road to open their season and destroyed North Texas 48-10 and followed that up with a 45-16 win over Lamar. They have lost their last two games to fall to 2-2, but the losses were a 27-34 setback at Maryland and a 34-42 loss at home to TCU.
Nothing to be ashamed with those two losses. Maryland is currently 4-1 with their only loss being a 27-34 defeat at No. 4 Michigan. SMU was not outmatched against the Terps. In fact, they outgained Maryland 520-439 with a 30-16 edge in first downs. TCU is 4-0 and fresh off an absolute beatdown of No. 18 Oklahoma. Horned Frogs only outgained SMU 487-476 with SMU holding a 27-21 edge in first downs.
As for UCF, they are 3-1 to start the year. They have a 56-10 win over SC State, 40-14 win over FAU and most recently a 27-10 win over Georgia Tech. The lone loss being a 14-20 defeat at home to Louisville. At the time the loss to the Cardinals wasn't viewed as a bad loss, but Louisville has really been a disappointment this year. They are just 2-3 and just lost 33-34 at BC as a 14-point favorite.
I just don't think UCF has the offensive fire-power to go score for score with this high-powered Mustangs offense. SMU has one of the best passing attacks in the country behind junior signal caller Tanner Mordecai, who has thrown for 1,385 yards and 12 TDs. SMU as a team is averaging 38.5 ppg, 506 ypg and 6.4 yards/play.
The thing that I feel gets overlooked with SMU is their defense. They are only giving up 25.5 ppg, despite facing two potent offenses in Maryland and TCU.
You might be saying UCF's defense is pretty good too. The Knights are only giving up 13.5 ppg and 315 ypg. However, the only offense they have faced with a pulse is Louisville and I just haven't been that impressed with the Cardinal offense. Give me SMU +3!
|10-01-22||Stanford +17 v. Oregon||27-45||Loss||-110||37 h 53 m||Show|
8* NCAAF - Public Money ATS SLAUGHTER: Stanford Cardinal +17
This to me is just too many points to pass up with Stanford, who is a 17-point road dog against Oregon. The Cardinal are getting absolutely no love from the books or the public right now, as they have failed to cover the spread in all 3 of their games, including ugly losses in their big step up games against USC (lost 28-41 as a 9.5-point dog) and Washington (lost 22-40 as a 14-point dog). It to me has created a great buy low spot on Stanford, who has the offensive fire-power to put up points on this Oregon defense.
I also don't love the spot here for the Ducks. Oregon is coming into this game off a dramatic 44-41 win at Washington State. A game they trailed 15-27 going into the 4th and 22-34 with less than 5 minutes to play. The Ducks didn't take their first lead in that game until there was 1:21 left in the 4th quarter. Playing from behind like that for a full 60 minutes takes a lot out of a team.
I think think with how everyone is calling for a blowout here by Oregon, it sets the Ducks up for a big letdown and you know Stanford is going to be up for this game given how poorly they have played their last two games and this being such a big rivalry. Give me the Cardinal +17!
|10-01-22||Virginia v. Duke -2.5||17-38||Win||100||45 h 35 m||Show|
9* NCAAF Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: Duke Blue Devils -2.5
I'm going to lay the 2.5 with Duke at home against Virginia. I just think this is way too good a price to pass up with the Blue Devils. Duke had started out 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS before losing and failing to cover last week in a 27-35 loss at Kansas as a 7-point dog. Even though they lost that game, I thought the Blue Devils were impressive in defeat against a much improved Kansas team. They just were able to slow down that Jayhawks offense.
They aren't going to have that problem defensively against a bad and very overrated Cavaliers offense that gets way too much respect because they brought back a good QB in Brennan Armstrong. They just don't have the offensive line or playmakers on the outside that they had a year ago.
They did manage to cover last week in a 20-22 loss at Syracuse as a 9.5-point dog, but were very lucky to do so. Syracuse settled for 5 field goals in that game. They had kicked 3 FGs from 32 yards or less in just the first half. They didn't find the endzone again after scoring a TD on their opening drive.
Duke has a legit offense behind one of the best kept secrets in quarterback Riley Leonard. Thru 4 games, Leonard has completed 72 of 101 attempts (71.3%) and isn't just dinking and dunking it down the field. He's averaging 10.4 yards per attempt (T-6th) in the country.
I just don't see this Virginia going on the road with that offensive line and being able to keep pace offensively with the Blue Devils. Give me Duke -2.5!
|10-01-22||Iowa State -3 v. Kansas||11-14||Loss||-110||43 h 6 m||Show|
9* NCAAF Smart Money ATS NO-BRAINER: Iowa State Cyclones -3
I really like Iowa State as a slim 3-point road favorite against Kansas. I've been on this Jayhawks team a decent amount here to start the season and they have really delivered, going a perfect 4-0 SU and 4-0 ATS, which includes a 55-42 win on the road against West Virginia as a 14-point dog and a 48-30 win at Houston as a 8.5-point dog.
They key here is the perception of Kansas has shifted dramatically. I believe they have come from being one of the most underrated teams to being way overvalued.
The wins at West Virginia and Houston are impressive, but they far from dominated those games. They fell behind 7-21 to the Mountaineers before rallying and eventually winning in OT. They were outgained 511 to 419 in that win over WV. They were outgained 446 to 438 in their win over Houston. The win over Duke is nice, but even though the Blue Devils came into that game 3-0, that's not a Duke team that is any sort of threat in the ACC.
Iowa State is the best team the Jayhawks have played and it's not even close. The Cyclones are 3-1 with their only loss coming last week in a 24-31 loss at home to Baylor. There were a few calls early in that game that really impacted the outcome of that game.
I just look at the matchup. As good as Kansas' offense has been, there defense has been equally as bad. I don't see the Jayhawks being able to get off the field in this one. I just don't know if they can win a shootout with how good ISU is defensively. Cyclones are only giving up 14.5 ppg and 266 ypg and that's come against teams who are averaging 24.4 ppg and 350 yards/game. They are holding teams to 1.3 yards per rush under their season average (allowing 2.7 vs teams averaging 4). I like the Jayhawks to get a wakeup call in this one. Give me Iowa State -3!
|10-01-22||Northwestern +25.5 v. Penn State||7-17||Win||100||41 h 1 m||Show|
8* NCAAF Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE: Northwestern Wildcats +25.5
I like the 25.5 we are getting with Northwestern, as they go on the road to face No. 11 Penn State. I just feel this line has been inflated to where there's too much value with the Wildcats. No one is going to want to bet Northwestern, who has lost and failed to cover each of their last 3 games. All as favorites, two by double-digits. On the flip side, the public sees a ranked Nittany Lions team that is 4-0 and has covered 3 of the 4, with each of their last 3 wins coming in blowout fashion, including a 41-12 win at Auburn.
All of those games for Penn State were non-confernece. Games are just played closer in conference. Let's also not ignore the fact that the Nittany Lions were extremely lucky to pull out a 35-31 win on the road at Purdue in their opener.
I also don't think Northwestern is as bad as what people think. They outgained the Blue Devils 511 to 461 in a 23-31 loss to Duke. They outgained Southern Illinois 380 to 357 in a 24-31 defeat and outgained Miami (OH) 364 to 278 in a 14-17 loss. They got a decent QB in Ryan Hilinski and a very talented running back in Evan Hull, who has already accounted for 681 yards and 4 TDs. Give me Northwestern +25.5!
|10-01-22||Oklahoma State +2.5 v. Baylor||Top||36-25||Win||100||40 h 50 m||Show|
10* NCAAF - Big Money PLAY OF THE MONTH: Oklahoma State Cowboys +2.5
I will gladly take the 2.5-points with No. 9 Oklahoma State on the road against No. 16 Baylor. I really like the price and the spot here with the Cowboys. This is without a doubt a game Oklahoma State had circled when the schedule was announced. The last time these two teams played was last year's Big 12 title game, which saw the Bears upset the Cowboys 21-16 as a 7-point dog.
It's also a game that Oklahoma State has had two weeks to prepare for after a bye last week. That's a big advantage here, especially with Baylor coming off a huge road win at Iowa State last week.
I also feel like even though the Cowboys are ranked in the Top 10, this is a team that is being undervalued right now. The only game they haven't covered is their 58-44 Week 1 win over Central Michigan as a 20.5-point favorite. They may have not covered, but they led 51-15 early in the 3rd quarter and called off the dogs, getting outscored 29-7 the rest of the way. That end to that game also greatly skewed the defensive numbers for this Oklahoma State defense.
The other big thing I think getting overlooked with the Cowboys and maybe the biggest reason I think they are underrated is the improvement we have seen out of starting quarterback Spencer Sanders. He's completed 65.3% of his attempts with a 9.6 average. Both career highs. He's also got a 10-1 TD-INT ratio. His career high for a season in TD passes is 20. He's also rushed for over 100 yards and 3 scores.
I just think the Cowboys are the better team on both sides of the ball and should be the favorites in this matchup. Keep in mind this line suggest that if this game was played on a neutral field the line would be around Oklahoma State -1 to -2. Give me the Cowboys +2.5!
|10-01-22||Virginia Tech v. North Carolina -9||10-41||Win||100||29 h 10 m||Show|
8* NCAAF No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: North Carolina Tar Heels -9
I just can't help myself here but to lay the 9-points at home with North Carolina against Virginia Tech. I think it's a great spot here to jump on the Tar Heels after last week's 32-45 home loss to Notre Dame, where everyone was calling for UNC to win that game.
I'm also looking to fade this Virginia Tech team right now. I couldn't believe West Virginia (had a 10* play on Mountaineers) was only a 2-point road favorite against the Hokies last week. Mountaineers won that game 33-10, outgaining Va Tech 421 to 228.
This is a really bad Hokies offense. They are scoring just 20.3 ppg and averaging 332 ypg against opponents who are giving up 26.6 ppg and 401 ypg. It's why I'm not overly concerned here with the struggles that UNC has defensively. This is also a Hokies offense that can't run the ball and could really be handcuffed if weather plays a role at all in this one.
I don't think the Hokies defense is bad, but their numbers are without a doubt aided by the fact that they played 3 bad offensive team in their first 3 games in ODU, BC and Wofford. They are allowing just 85 ypg and 2.6 yards/carry on the ground, yet gave up 218 yards rushing to W Virginia.
UNC comes in avarging 46.5 ppg, 502 ypg and 7.3 yards play. That's against teams who are allowing just 38.1 ppg, 447 ypg and 6.4 yards/play. They are averaging 194 yards and 5.3 yards/carry on the ground and putting up 308 ypg in the air. I think they easily get to 35 and I just don't see the Hokies getting into the mid 20s on the road. Give me North Carolina -9!
|10-01-22||Michigan State +8.5 v. Maryland||Top||13-27||Loss||-120||41 h 38 m||Show|
10* NCAAF - Situational PLAY OF THE MONTH: Michigan State Spartans +8.5
I've taken it on the chin with Michigan State the last two weeks in ugly losses. First it was a 28-39 loss at Washington as a 3.5-point dog and then a 7-34 loss at home to Minnesota as a 3-point dog. Much like I did with the Huskies, I didn't give that Minnesota the respect they deserved. I
I'm confident I'm not making that same mistake here with Maryland, especially at this price. The Terps caught the eye of a lot of people last week, as they only lost 27-34 as a 17-point road dog at No. 4 Michigan.
I just think some of them keeping that game close had to due with Michigan maybe being a little overconfident and untested after 3 cupcake games to start the season. Let's also not ignore the fact that Michigan led 34-19 in that game in the 4th quarter before Maryland scored a late TD in garbage time to make it appear closer.
Another big thing here is the health of Terps' starting quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa, who suffered a rib injury in the loss to Michigan. He did return after leaving that game, but clearly this family has a mindset of playing even when they are hurt after watching what's went down with his brother Tua the last couple of weeks. He's a game-time decision as of right now.
So is leading wide out Rakim Jarrett, who is off to a great start after leading the team in receiving last year.
I do have some concerns with the Michigan State secondary, but I just feel that a lot of their struggles the last couple of weeks were playing two of the better teams in the country in Washington and Minnesota. This also has to feel like a must-win for the Spartans, who after this play at home against Ohio State and Wisconsin before going on the road to face in-state rival Michigan. Give me the Spartans +8.5!
|09-24-22||Kansas State +13 v. Oklahoma||41-34||Win||100||76 h 6 m||Show|
8* NCAAF Public Money ATS MASSACRE: Kansa State Wildcats +13
My money is on Kansas State to cover as a 13-point road dog against Oklahoma. I think we got a perfect recipe for line value with last week's results for these two teams. On one side you had Kansas State lose 10-17 at home to Tulane as a 13-point favorite, while Oklahoma went on the road and embarrassed Nebraska 49-14 as a mere 10.5-point favorite.
Anyone that was taking a wait and see approach with Oklahoma after losing head coach Lincoln Riley is now going to be sold that this Sooners team is going to run the table and fight for a playoff spot. I just don't think that's the case. Sure, I thought Nebraska would put up more of a fight in the first game after Scott Frost was fired, but that's not a surprising result to me.
Maybe I'm wrong and Brent Venables is going to be this great new head coach, but I still think Oklahoma is not on the same level as they were with Riley calling the shots.
One thing is for sure, that offense of there's will be facing a defense with any kind of a pulse for the first time this year. Kansas State is miles ahead of any team the Sooners have faced on the defensive side of the ball.
I also think you have to ask yourself how much of the spot played into K-State's poor showing against Tulane. The Wildcats were fresh off a 40-12 win against Missouri against rival Missouri as a 7-point favorite. A game some thought they were to struggle to win. Then they had this massive game against Oklahoma looming on deck. I think it had a big impact.
I also think you got to look at the track record in this series. K-State has won 2 of the last 3 meetings. One as a 23.5-point dog and the other as a 28-point dog. Two of their last 3 losses to Oklahoma have come by 7 or less and they are responsible for 3 of Oklahoma 6 losses at home in Big 12 play since 2012. Would it really shock you if they won this game outright. Not me. Give me the Wildcats +13!
|09-24-22||Wisconsin +19 v. Ohio State||21-52||Loss||-110||76 h 37 m||Show|
8* NCAAF Prime Time ATS SLAUGHTER: Wisconsin Badgers +19
I will take Wisconsin as a 19-point road dog against Ohio State. Nobody is giving the Badgers any shot in this game and I just feel like the line has gotten out of control. I get the Buckeyes came into this season as a consensus playoff pick and they have looked the part in their last two games against Arkansas State (45-12) and Toledo (77-21), but it's like everyone has just completely blocked out their opener against Notre Dame. A game they only won 21-10 as a similarly priced 17-point favorite.
Wisconsin is a heck of a lot better team than Notre Dame. That's just not the perception people have. A big reason for that is the Badgers shocking 14-17 home loss to Washington State. Yes, they lost, but they were the better team. Wisconsin outgained the Cougars 401 to 253 with a 22-10 edge in first downs.
I just think if Notre Dame's defense can give this Ohio State offense fits, there's no reason to think the Badgers' defense can't do the same.
All Ohio State is going to hear going into this game is how good they are and how Wisconsin doesn't have the offense to compete. They kind of mindset is how upsets happen. The Badgers will not only being playing with a chip on their shoulder, but they got nothing to lose here. I could be dead wrong here, but at this price and how big the public is on Ohio State, I got to take the points. Give me the Badgers +19!
|09-24-22||Connecticut +39 v. NC State||10-41||Win||100||76 h 36 m||Show|
9* NCAAF Sharp Money ATS KNOCKOUT: UConn Huskies +39
Yes, I'm taking the 39-points with UConn on the road against NC State. The same UConn team that has lost 14-48 at home to Syracuse (24-pt dog) and 0-59 at Michigan (47.5 pt dog) in their last two games.
Most will just assume that with NC State sitting there ranked No. 12 in the country, they are just going to be able to name their score in this one. I just don't think that's going to be the case. Wolfpack are 3-0, but they have not impressed me in their two biggest games. They beat ECU 21-20 and the Pirates missed an extra point late, as well as a 42-yard field goal in the final seconds. They did just beat Texas Tech 27-14, were outgained 353-270 by the Red-Raiders.
The other big factor here is the spot. NC State has their biggest game on their schedule looming next week at Clemson. A game that they probably have to win to have a legit shot at winning the ACC Atlantic.
They aren't going to be out for style points in this game. Their primary focus is to win and keep everyone healthy. So even if they get up early, it's going to be extremely hard for them to win by 40+ with all their backups playing the entire 2nd half. Give me UConn +39!
|09-24-22||Northern Illinois +26.5 v. Kentucky||23-31||Win||100||75 h 8 m||Show|
9* NCAAF Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR: Northern Illinois Huskies +26.5
I really like Northern Illinois to cover as a 26.5-point dog against Kentucky. To me this line doesn't make a lot of sense. In the Wildcats season opener they were a mere 15-point home favorite against Miami (OH). Northern Illinois and Miami (OH) both play in the MAC and the Huskies are the defending MAC champs with 18 returning starters. This line suggest that Northern Illinois would be a double-digit dog on a neutral to Miami (OH). No chance.
It's also worth noting that while Kentucky won and covered against the RedHawks in a 37-13 win. They needed a last second field goal to go into the half with a 13-10 lead. They then flipped the script with a 100-yard kick return to open the 2nd half. They only outgained Miami (OH) by 63 yards.
For them to win by 27 or more you would think they need to outgain Northern Illinois by 250+ yards. I just don't see that happening. Northern Illinois is going to fight. There's not many bigger stages for them than playing a Top 10 ranked opponent.
I'm just not a believer that Kentucky is a Top 10 team and I think this is a bit of a tricky spot for them with a huge game on deck next week at No. 16 Ole Miss. Even if they get up big, they are going to pull their guys and go into conservative mode, which will leave the backdoor wide open. Give me Northern Illinois +26.5!
|09-24-22||Arkansas +2.5 v. Texas A&M||Top||21-23||Win||100||75 h 4 m||Show|
10* NCAAF Underdog PLAY OF THE MONTH: Arkansas Razorbacks +2.5
I love the Razorbacks as a 2.5-point dog in their neutral site showdown with the Aggies. For those that don't know, the game is being played at AT&T Stadium (home of the Cowboys). Sure Texas A&M was able to win and cover last week in their huge game against Miami, winning 17-9 as a 6.5-point favorite. They were lucky to do so, as they were outgained 392 to 264.
There was hope that a switch to QB Max Johnson would spark the offense. It didn't It looked like the exact same offense that let them down in their upset loss at home to App State. If that wasn't a prime time night game under the lights, where that Texas A&M crowd is out of control, I don't know if they beat the Hurricanes.
They aren't going to have that kind of crowd impact at AT&T Stadium and are playing their toughest challenge to date in Arkansas. I don't know what it is about the Razorbacks, but they just keep staying under the radar. They are now 8-1 in their last 9 games and their only loss was by a mere 7-points at Alabama. They got the best quarterback nobody talks about in KJ Jefferson, who is off to a great start.
The gap in talent at the quarterback position alone in this game is enough that should have Arkansas favored. I just don't see the Aggies being able to do enough offensively to win this game and say what you want about Alabama looming on the schedule next week for the Razorbacks. They are not looking past this game. Give me Arkansas +2.5!
|09-24-22||Arizona +3 v. California||31-49||Loss||-100||74 h 37 m||Show|
9* NCAAF No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: Arizona Wildcats +3
I will gladly take 3-points on the road with Arizona at Cal. I'm 1-1 on the Wildcats this year. I won with them in their 38-20 win at San Diego State as a 6.5-point dog. I lost with them in a 17-39 loss at home to Mississippi State as a 10.5-point dog. Looking back I just got a little too greedy with Arizona. Their a team I'm so high on this year and even though they are improved, they aren't quite ready to compete with the big boys.
Cal is certainly not a big boy. The Golden Bears are 2-1. They were far from impressive in home wins over UC Davis and UNLV to start the year. They did however cover as a 13.5-point dog in a 17-24 loss at Notre Dame last week.
It's a big deal going on the road and facing the Irish in South Bend. That was easily the biggest game on the schedule for Cal in the first half of their season. Regardless of how that game went, it was going to be tough for the Golden Bears to bounce back with a top tier effort in this game. I think it's even less likely after losing the way they did (led 17-14 going into the 4th).
There's just nothing I've seen so far that makes me think in differently on Cal, who I didn't think was going to be very good. Golden Bears only returned 8 starters from a team that went 5-7 last year.
As for Arizona, they were a team I thought was poised to make a massive jump in 2022. Not only were they figuring to be improved in year two under head coach Jedd Fisch, but they brought in a ton of talent via the transfer portal, including nabbing last year's Pac-12 leading passer in quarterback Jayden De Laura. Simply put I think they are the better team and should be favored in this one. Give me Arizona +3!
|09-24-22||Toledo v. San Diego State +3||14-17||Win||100||71 h 28 m||Show|
8* NCAAF Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE: San Diego State Aztecs +3
I will gladly take the 3-points with San Diego State at home against Toledo. I think this is the perfect spot and price to buy-low on the Aztecs. San Diego State has not been impressive to start the year. They are 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS. They lost 20-38 as a 6-point favorite at home to Arizona in their opener, beat Idaho State 38-7 as a 32.5-point favorite and then got annihilated 35-7 at Utah as a 22-point dog.
Thing a lot of people don't realize is they really haven't lost a game they should have won. Yes, they were a favorite against Arizona in their opener, but that Wildcats team was being way undervalued coming into this season. Arizona is easily one of the more improved teams in the country. As for the loss to Utah, what did you really expect. That's a Utes team that a lot of people picked to make the playoffs.
One thing to note about the poor offensive showing against Utah is they lost starting quarterback Braxton Burmeister in the 1st quarter. (poked in the eye) He didn't return, but head coach Brady Hoke has said he's going to be ready to go for Saturday.
I just think that given how bad SDSU has looked and Toledo being one of the favorites to win the MAC has the wrong team favored. The Rockets might be the class of the MAC, but the MAC is also the worst conference in the FBS.
The other huge factor for me is the spot. Toledo's biggest game on their schedule was last week at in-state big brother Ohio State (who they rarely get to play). So even though they got annihilated 71-21, it will be tough for them to bring that same level of energy to this game. Not only that, but keep in mind they are now back on the road and forced to go way out west against a hungry San Diego State. Last time the Rockies traveled to California for a regular-season game was 2018 against Fresno State. A game they lost 27-49 as a 9-point dog. Give me San Diego State +3!
|09-24-22||James Madison +7 v. Appalachian State||32-28||Win||100||71 h 28 m||Show|
9* NCAAF Smart Money CASH COW: James Madison Dukes +7
I will once again fade Appalachian State and grab the 7-points with James Madison. Last week we backed Troy at +12.5 and the Trojans nearly won outright, losing on a hail mary in the final seconds.
I faded App State in that game because of the emotional rollercoaster they had been on to start the year. First they lose 61-63 to UNC, scoring 40 points in the 4th quarter to nearly erase a 20-point 4th quarter deficit (missed 2-pt conversion with 9 seconds left). Then they pulled off a massive upset, beating Texas A&M 17-14 on the road.
I just don't see them having anything left in the tank for this game and they are up against a very talented Dukes team. For those that don't know James Madison made the jump from FCS to the FBS this year. The assumption most have when this happen is they are going to struggle that first year after making the jump.
I don't think that's the case at all. The Dukes are coming off a 12-2 season in 2021 and have won 9 or more games in 7 of the last 8 seasons. In their opener against Middle Tennessee they beat the Blue Raiders 44-7 as a 5-point favorite, outgaining them 548 to 119 in the process. They then destroyed Norfolk State 63-7. Very similar type of dominating performance to Marshall in their 55-3 win over Norfolk State.
The other massive factor in this game is the fact that James Madison is coming off a bye week, which means they not only are going to have fresh legs, but have had two full weeks to prepare for this game. A game you know they had circled with how many people had App State picked to win the conference. The Dukes will be out to make a statement that they belong. I give them a real shot here to win this game outright. Give me the James Madison +7.
|09-24-22||Texas v. Texas Tech +7||Top||34-37||Win||100||72 h 41 m||Show|
10* NCAAF - Big 12 PLAY OF THE MONTH: Texas Tech Red Raiders +7
I absolutely love getting Texas Tech as a 7-point home dog against Texas. The Longhorns to be are being way overvalued right now. Texas is a public team and any time this team shows they might be back, everyone is so quick to jump on the bandwagon. Their 19-20 loss to Alabama completely flipped the script on the perception of this team.
Unfortunately for Texas they lost starting quarterback Quinn Ewers, who looked like a real difference maker for this team. No disrespect to backup Hudson Card, but he's a big down grade. Card has attempted 14 more passes (8 more completions) than Ewers and still trail him in yards. I believe it makes them more one-dimensional with the run game.
They wound up covering as a 13-point favorite with Card under center last week against UTSA, winning 41-20. However, they far from dominated that game. They only outgained the Roadrunners 459-408 and had just 21 first downs to UTSA's 29.
I just think them winning and covering and then Texas Tech failing to cover as a 10.5-point dog in a 14-27 loss at NC State has created some line value here. Keep in mind the public was all over the Red Raiders as a double-digit dog against NC State.
The key here is the public only cares about the final result. Texas Tech lost them money. Thing is, they probably shouldn't have. Red Raiders outgained NC State 353 to 270. I've really liked what I've seen out of this team in year one under head coach Joey McGuire. I also loved both their coordinator hires, bringing in Zach Kittley on offense and Tim DeRuyter on defense.
I also see a very motivated Texas Tech team coming into this game after last year's embarrassing 35-70 loss to Texas, where they trailed 14-42 at the half and 28-63 after 3 quarters. While it's not a night game in Lubbock, Jones AT&T Stadium will be rocking for this game. There's not a game on the schedule the Red Raiders want more than this one and they haven't won in this series since 2017 (only 4 wins since 1999). I think this team is not only capable of making a game of it with Card at quarterback, I think they got a legit shot here to win outright. Give me Texas Tech +7!
|09-24-22||Minnesota v. Michigan State +3||Top||34-7||Loss||-110||72 h 39 m||Show|
10* NCAAF - Big Ten PLAY OF THE MONTH: Michigan State Spartans +3
I love Michigan State as a 3-point home dog against Minnesota. I took it on the chin last week with the Spartans as a 3.5-point dog at Washington. I undervalued the Huskies, especially quarterback Michael Penix. I also gave way to much respect to the Michigan State secondary. I thought it was more improved than it was.
The good news is that loss has created a good buy low spot with the Spartans. No way should they be a home dog to the Gophers. Minnesota is off to a 3-0 start. Not only have they won all 3 games they have played, they have covered the number. They covered with ease last week as a 28-point favorite against Colorado, winning by a final of 49-7.
That's not a very good Buffaloes team. Colorado has lost 13-38 at home to TCU and 10-41 at Air Force in their other two games. Minnesota's other two wins are against New Mexico State and Western Illinois.
I'm not saying the Gophers aren't a good team. I just think they are way overvalued right now and I think it's a bad matchup for them.
The inability to stop top tier quarterbacks was the downfall of Michigan State in 2021. Clearly it's still a problem. What they haven't struggled to stop is the run. They are allowing just 90 ypg and 2.7 yards/carry.
The Gophers' Tanner Morgan is a quality quarterback at the college level, but he's not going to carry this team with his arm. Minnesota's offense is built on their running game. They have ran it 50+ times in each of their first 3 games. They will also be handcuffed in the passing game going forward after losing wide out, Chris Autman-Bell to a season-ending injury. Autman-Bell led the team in catches (11), yards (214) and yards/catch (19.5).
Minnesota's defense looks all world thru 3 games, giving up just 5.7 ppg and 170 ypg, but note the 3 teams they play combine to only average 9.3 ppg and 226 ypg. Gophers haven't even sniffed an offense as good as Michigan State. The defense will be solid, but not this good. They lost a ton up front from last year. I look for the Spartans to be able get the ground game going and pick up some big plays thru the air. Give me Michigan State +3!
|09-22-22||West Virginia -1 v. Virginia Tech||33-10||Win||100||28 h 13 m||Show|
9* NCAAF Thursday Night VEGAS INSIDER: W Virginia Mountaineers -1
I'm taking West Virginia to cover as a slim 1 point road favorite against Virginia Tech. Even though the Mountaineers come into this game off a 65-7 blowout win over Towson, I think there's value stemming from the fact that they are 1-2 with a 42-55 loss at home to Kansas as a 14-point favorite.
A couple of years ago losing at home to Kansas would be unacceptable, but this year's Jayhawks team is built different. They just went on the road and beat Houston last week 48-30 as more than a TD dog. It's worth noting that West Virginia did lead 21-3 and had a 511 to 419 edge in total yards in the loss to the Jayhawks.
There other loss is a 31-38 setback on the road against a pretty good Pitt team. A game they led by 7 in the 4th quarter and eventually lost on a 56-yard interception return for a score. Mountaineers also outgained the Panthers 404-384.
Those are two pretty talent offensive teams. Kansas has a Top 10 ranked rushing attack and Pitt had one of the top QBs in the country in Slovis.
Virginia Tech doesn't do really do anything well offensively. In their two games so far against FBS opponents they have managed just 333 total yards against Old Dominion and 284 against Boston College.
I'm also sure there's going to be talk about the great defensive numbers that the Hokies have thru 3 games. Something a lot of people will quickly buy into because they will just attribute it to first year head coach Brent Pry who came over after being the DC at Penn State.
I'm not saying the defense isn't improved. I just don't think it's as good as people think. Boston College only had 312 total yards at home against Rutgers and Old Dominion had just 290 in a loss to ECU and 324 against Virginia.
Adding on to the Old Dominion games that they have played since playing Virginia Tech. I mentioned the Hokies had just 333 total yards vs them. The Monarchs gave up 531 yards to East Carolina and 513 to Virginia.
Look for JT Daniels and that Mountaineers offense to make some plays and I just don't see the Hokies offense being able to keep pace. This also feels like it's a season-saving type game for West Virginia. With Texas and Baylor on the schedule next, they need this win, which is why I'm not concerned about them looking ahead to that game with the Longhorns. Give me West Virginia -1!
|09-17-22||Michigan State +3.5 v. Washington||28-39||Loss||-110||57 h 2 m||Show|
9* NCAAF Late Night ATS NO-BRAINER: Michigan State Spartans +3.5
I'll take my chances with No. 11 Michigan State catching 3.5 points on the road against Washington. Usually I look to go the other way when there's a ranked team catching points against an unranked opponent, but I think we are seeing Washington get a little too much respect after their 2-0 start.
No one saw the Huskies going 4-8 last year. People were not only picking them to win the Pac-12, but make the 4-team playoff before the season started. It just feels like everyone wants this team to be good and I think people are jumping back on the bandwagon after watching them dominate their first two opponents. They beat Kent State 45-20 as a 24-point favorite and rolled Portland State 52-6 as a 30-point favorite.
Not sure what beating either of those teams tells you about this team. To me there's still a lot this Cougars team has to do to prove they are for real.
Michigan State has also started 2-0 and yet it doesn't feel like anyone is taking this team all tha seriously despite their high ranking. A lot of that has to do with no one seeing a path for them to even win their own division in the Big Ten. It's all Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State.
I really like the Spartans head coach Mel Tucker and the direction he has this team headed. There were some concerns with the offense coming into this season after losing running back Kenneth Walker. So far he hasn't been missed. Redshirt freshman Jalen Berger has 227 yards on 33 attempts and Colorado transfer Jarek Broussard has 135 on 25 carries. They got back starting QB Payton Thorne and a future NFL WR in Jayden Reed.
The big problem last year was the Michigan State secondary and I'm sure those struggles against the pass are going to convince some to lay it with Washington given how good Indiana transfer Michael Penix has looked to start the year. However, the Spartans returned 9 starters on defense and are much improved in the secondary. I'll gladly take the points, but I'm going into this expecting the Spartans to win. Give me Michigan State +3.5!
|09-17-22||Mississippi State v. LSU +2.5||Top||16-31||Win||100||55 h 20 m||Show|
10* NCAAF - Sharp Money PLAY OF THE MONTH: LSU Tigers +2.5
I will gladly take the 2.5-points with LSU at home against Mississippi State on Saturday. I think we got a good buy-low spot on the Tigers, who lost a lot of the hype around them in their Week 1 loss to Florida State. I also think it's a decent sell-high spot with Mississippi State, who has started 2-0 with two really easy covers, beating Memphis 49-23 at home as a 17-point favorite and going on the road and beating Arizona 39-17 as a 12.5-point favorite.
I was on the Wildcats in that game last week and while I still feel like Arizona is going to be a good bet going forward, I think I got a little ahead of myself in that one. Wildcats still have a ways to go to compete with a talented SEC team like Mississippi State, especially on the defensive side of the ball.
I think it's going to be a bit of a wakeup call for the Bulldogs offense in this one. LSU's defense didn't play great in the loss to FSU, but well enough to win. I expect them to be flying around the field at home in this one.
I also think people are sleeping a little on this LSU offense. They are so much better at the QB position than they have been the last two years with ASU transfer Jayden Daniels. Thru two games, he's completed 78% of his attempts with a 5-0 TD-INT ratio and has also rushed for 132 yards (6.9 yards/carry).
I don't know if it's because LSU has been down some of late, but winning at Tiger Stadium in a prime time game like we have here (6 pm EST kickoff) is not easy. Let's also not forget that as bad as LSU was last year, they went into Starkville and beat Mississippi State 28-25. Brian Kelly is 13-5-1 ATS as a home dog in his 18+ years as a head coach (LSU was 2-0-1 ATS as a home dog last year). Give me the Tigers +2.5!
|09-17-22||Kansas +9 v. Houston||48-30||Win||100||53 h 18 m||Show|
9* NCAAF - Smart Money VEGAS INSIDER: Kansas Jayhawks +9
I will take my chances with Kansas as a 9-point road dog at Houston. Those that have followed this Jayhawks team closely would tell you that 2nd year head coach Lance Leipold is quietly taking Kansas from a doormat in the Big 12 to a team that can compete on the big stage against the top teams.
We saw it unfold a little bit at the end of last season. In their last 3 games, KU upset Texas on the road 57-56 as a 31-point dog, lost by just 3-points on the road at TCU as a 21-point dog and lost by 6 to WV as a 15-point dog.
It's continued into 2022. They annihilated Tennessee Tech 56-10 in their opener, covering as a 32-point favorite and then went on the road and beat West Virginia 55-42 as a 14-point dog.
While the win over the Mountaineers certainly caught the attention of people, it's going to take a lot more than that for the value to go away with Kansas. Teams like the Jayhawks that have been so bad for so long will continue to show value. I could see there being value with KU the entire rest of this season.
On the flip side of this, I came into this season thinking Houston was a big overrated and I really haven't seen anything to change my mind. Cougars are lucky they aren't 0-2. They trailed 7-21 going into the 4th quarter before narrowly escaping with a 37-35 OT win at UTSA in Week 1. They then lost 30-33 in 2OT at Texas Tech last week. They were outgained 468 to 354 by the Red Raiders and 441-346 by UTSA.
You also got to wonder just how much gas Houston has left in the tank after going into overtime in each of their first two games. Kansas to me is a live dog in this one. Give me the Jayhawks +9!
|09-17-22||Troy +12.5 v. Appalachian State||Top||28-32||Win||100||53 h 51 m||Show|
10* NCAAF Sun Belt PLAY OF THE MONTH: Troy Trojans +12.5
I love the value with Troy as a 12.5-point dog on the road against Appalachian State. This to me is the perfect spot to sell-high on the Mountaineers, who are getting all kinds of love after narrowly losing to UNC 61-63 in Week 1 and then pulling off the massive upset on the road last week at Texas A&M as a 18.5-point underdog.
The betting public is going to be all over App State laying less than two touchdowns at home against a Troy team that hasn't really done anything to garner much attention, losing 28-10 at Ole Miss in Week 1 and then only beating Alabama A&M 38-17 as a 37.5-point favorite last week.
I'm personally really high on this Troy team in 2022. They are one of the more experienced teams in the country with 18 starters back (9 offense, 9 defense). I loved the hire of head coach Jon Sumrall, who was a co-DC at Kentucky last year.
This team more than held their own against the Rebels in the opener. They were only -87 in total yards (346-433) -4 in first downs (20-24).
I think with App State poised for a letdown after playing two close games against Power 5 teams in their first two games, not only makes Troy the play here but I give them a legit shot at pulling off the upset and winning this game outright. Give me the Trojans +12.5!
|09-17-22||Tulane +14 v. Kansas State||17-10||Win||100||52 h 17 m||Show|
8* NCAAF No Doubt ATS SLAUGHTER: Tulane Green Wave +14
I will take my chances with Willie Fritz and Tulane catching two touchdowns on the road against Kansas State. Everyone is jumping on the Wildcats bandwagon this week after watching them absolutely destroy Missouri 40-12 last week as a mere 7-point favorite. In easily my worst bet of the weekend last week, I took the points with the Tigers in that game.
As much as I came away impressed with Kansas State in that game, I'm going against the Wildcats again this week.
I still have some real concerns with the Kansas State offense. They have been able to do whatever they want on the ground, rushing for 297 yards in the opener against South Dakota and 235 against Missouri. It's masked up some real inefficiencies in the passing game. Wildcats have a mere 196 passing yards in their first two games combined. Adrian Martinez was just 9 for 20 for 101 yards in the win over the Tigers.
The lack of passing game could really come back to haunt them in this game against a very underrated Tulane defense. They were the best defense in the AAC last year behind Cincinnati in the 2nd half of the year. They ended the year only giving up 3.9 yards/carry and return 9 starters on that side of the ball.
I know they have played two cupcakes in UMass and Alcorn State, but they have allowed just 2.9 yards/carry against those two teams. I expect Tulane to load the box and force Martinez to beat them with his arm.
I also think the Tulane offense came into this season under the radar. They brought back 9 starters on that side of the ball as well. As good as that K-State defense is, I think they will be able to put points on the board.
Another important thing to note is this is not a great spot for the Wildcats. They got to be feeling really good about themselves after blowing out their rival Missouri and have a MONSTER game on deck at Oklahoma next week. Give me Tulane +14!