|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|09-26-21||Ravens v. Lions OVER 49.5||Top||19-17||Loss||-110||73 h 33 m||Show|
50* (NFL) - Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Over 49.5)
I was shocked to see this total less than 50. The Lions are awful defensively and we have seen time after time this Ravens offense light it up with Lamar Jackson against bad teams. I know Jackson is questionable with an illness, but everything I've read is that he will be on the field Sunday.
I'm confident we are going to get 30+ from the Ravens in this one and a good chance they hit the 40-point mark. That means all we need is 20-25 from the Lions to cash this ticket. I know Detroit only had 17 in their MNF loss to Green Bay, but they just couldn't get anything going in the 2nd half.
The Ravens are a good defensive team, but they are a team that likes to blitz a lot, so I feel pretty good about Goff and that Lions offense having a few good drives in this game. You also have to factor in the perfect conditions playing in a dome. Give me the OVER 49.5!
|09-25-21||UMass v. Coastal Carolina OVER 65.5||3-53||Loss||-110||60 h 10 m||Show|
40* (CFB) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Over 65.5)
I will gladly take my chances with the OVER 65.5 between Coastal Carolina and UMass, as I think this game easily gets into the 70's. You might be asking how that happens when you got a team like UMass that is averaging just 21.0 ppg. It's more about how bad the Minutemen are on the defensive side of the ball.
UMass gave up 51 in their opener at Pitt, allowed 45 at home to BC and 42 at home to E Michigan. They are giving up 220 yards/game and 5.2 yards/carry vs the run. They are also giving up 306 ypg and a 74% completion rate vs the pass.
Coastal Carolina averages 43.0 ppg, 230 yards/game and 6 yards/carry, while throwing for 275 yards/game and completing 78% of their pass attempts. The Chanticleers would have to play their worst possible game to not hit 40 points. I think they get to at least 50.
UMass might not do a lot to help us early, but they will have plenty of opportunities to score in the 2nd half when Coastal Carolina calls off the dogs. I see this somewhere along the lines of 49 to 24. Give me the OVER 65.5!
|09-23-21||Marshall v. Appalachian State UNDER 60.5||Top||30-31||Loss||-110||34 h 1 m||Show|
50* (CFB) Marshall/App State MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 60.5)
I saw this total start to climb early in the week and quickly grabbed the UNDER 60.5 as soon as I saw the first book go back the other way (why it's so important to be a long-term client, so you get the play as soon as it's published and don't miss out on better numbers).
I just don't see these two teams going up and down the field the way you need to eclipse a number like this. It's really a prime example of how much more people focus on a team's offensive numbers than their defense.
Marshall is averaging 43.7 ppg and 604 ypg. Impressive. However, they have played Navy, NC Central and East Carolina. They should have great numbers. It's going to be a whole lot tougher against a very good Appalachian State defense. The Mountaineers are giving up just 18.0 ppg and 349 ypg. That's with them playing a road game at Miami, FL.
It's similar on the other side. Appalachian State is averaging 33.3 ppg and 446 ypg, but are actually underperforming if you take into account the teams they have faced are giving up on average 36.4 ppg and 480 ypg. The Mountaineers are also a team that wants to run the ball, which is great for eating up the clock. Marshall's defense has also been pretty good, giving up just 19.7 ppg and 379 ypg.
I also think you got to put some decent stock into last year's game between these two teams, which ended in a 17-7 Marshall win. The Herd ran it 45 times to just 25 passes and App State had 33 carries. Books were way off on that one too, as the total was 59.5. Give me the UNDER 60.5!
|09-22-21||Blue Jays v. Rays OVER 9||Top||1-7||Loss||-101||5 h 60 m||Show|
50* (MLB) - AL EAST Total PLAY OF THE MONTH (Over 9)
I think we easily see double-digit runs on the board in today's early matchup between the Blue Jays and Rays. This is just not a great pitching matchup. Toronto is going with an Opener in reliever Julian Merryweather, while Tampa Bay sends out Luis Patino.
Merryweather might only go 1 inning here, as he just threw in relief on Monday and was also in action last Friday. You never know what you are going to get on a bullpen day. With that said, I'll take my chances the Rays find a way to put up 4+ runs in this one.
Toronto should also score 4+ and I think we could more than that. Blue Jays have crushed right handed pitching and Patino comes in with a 6.92 ERA and 1.769 WHIP in his last 3 starts. He's got a mere 4.96 ERA and 1.408 WHIP in 14 starts overall. Give me the OVER 9!
|09-20-21||Lions v. Packers OVER 48.5||Top||17-35||Win||100||10 h 14 m||Show|
50* (NFL) - Lions/Packers MAX UNIT Top Play (OVER 48.5)
I'm going with the OVER 48.5 on Monday Night Football. I know some of the Lions' scoring against the 49ers came in the final minutes of regulation, but I was impressed with the unit. Jared Goff was way better than I anticipated. He had 338 yards and 3 scores. Detroit also ran for 116 yards and 4.8 yards/carry.
They now face a Packers defense that had no answer for Jameis Winston and the Saints offense. New Orleans played keep away from Rogers and put up an impressive 5.4 yards/play. That same Saints offense could only put up 128 total yards and 3.0 yards/play this past Sunday against the Panthers.
This too me all comes down to the Packers offense. I got some concerns, but I also think it's pretty safe to say that Rodgers and company will be a lot better than what they showed in Week 1.
Detroit doesn't figure to be very good on that side of the ball. They let SF do whatever they wanted and that same 49ers offense really struggled on Sunday against the Eagles.
Last year these two teams combined for 63 in the game at GB and 55 in the matchup in Detroit. Give me the OVER 48.5!
|09-19-21||Bills v. Dolphins OVER 47.5||35-0||Loss||-110||94 h 59 m||Show|
40* (NFL) Situational Over/Under TOTAL ANNIHILATOR (OVER 47.5)
I think both of these offenses are coming off very unfavorable matchups. I think you could make a legit case that the Steelers and Patriots are the two best defensive teams in the AFC this year.
Since the Bills drafted Josh Allen back in the 2018 offseason, the OVER in this division series is 5-1 with 5 straight covers. Last year the total set in both of their games was 42 and they combined for 59 and 84 points in the two games they played. They have combined for at least 52 in each of the last 5.
One thing to note about that Bills defense and the good numbers it put up last week against the Steelers, they couldn’t get off the field in the 2nd half. After holding Pittsburgh scoreless and allowing just 23 total yards in the 1st half, the Steelers scored on all 4 of their 2nd half possessions and put up 229 yards.
As for Miami, they were extremely lucky to only give up 17 points. Not only did they give up nearly 400 yards to a rookie QB on the road, they only forced two punts the entire game and one of those they were lucky didn’t end in a field goal. Pats had 1st and 10 on the 30 and ended up 4th and 17 on the 37.
I also think weather could play into a high-scoring game. It’s suppose to be hot and humid in Miami this Sunday, so I would expect the defenses to wear down as the game goes on. Give me the OVER 47.5!
|09-19-21||Raiders v. Steelers OVER 47||26-17||Loss||-105||72 h 44 m||Show|
40* (NFL) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Over 47)
I think we are getting some decent value with the OVER in this game. I just think people have a hard time seeing a high-scoring game with the Steelers after how bad the offense looked and how great the defense was in that Week 1 win over the Bills.
Yes, the Pittsburgh offense was bad in the 1st half of that game against Buffalo, but they really seemed to figure it out in the 2nd half. They had 229 of their 252 total yards in the final two quarters.
I think we are going to see that offense start strong and finish strong against a bad Raiders defense. Not to mention the emotional letdown defensively coming off that crazy MNF game vs the Ravens.
Pittsburgh is also in a bit of a letdown off that massive game against the Bills. Their defense is maybe the best in the league, but this Raiders offense can put up points on just about any defense. If they can just sniff 20 points, this thing is going to easily get to 50.
OVER is 9-1 in the Raiders last 10 games as a dog and a perfect 7-0 when they are a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Average combined score in the 7-0 streak is 64.0 ppg! Give me the OVER 47!
|09-18-21||Boston College v. Temple OVER 56.5||Top||28-3||Loss||-110||68 h 56 m||Show|
50* (CFB) - Sharp Money TOTAL OF THE MONTH (OVER 56.5)
I think the fact that BC lost starting quarterback Phil Jurkovec to injury has created some big time value on the OVER in Saturday's game against Temple. I just don't think the drop off to backup Dennis Grosel is as big as people might think. Grosel came in relief of Jurkovec in last week's 45-28 win over UMass and completed 11 of 14 for 199 yards.
There's also last year's season finale at Virginia, where Grosel got the start for an inured Jurkovec. He was 32 of 46 (69.6%) for 520 yards and 4 scores. I don't see the Owls having any kind of answer for this BC passing attack.
Don't be fooled by Temple's defense in their first two games. While they held Rutgers to just 365 total yards, the Scarlet Knights put up 61 on the Owls. Even an awful Akron team that didn't score a point until the 4th quarter against Auburn was able to put up 24 points. Let's also not forget that same Rutgers offense that shredded Temple had just 17 points and 195 total yards in their game against Syracuse last week.
It's not out of the question here that BC could put up a 50 spot. I certainly think they can get to at least 40. That means we just need a little bit out of this Temple offense to cash a winner.
I think they can. Boston College's defense isn't anything special. If UMass can score 28 against them, so can Temple. My numbers have this game at 64.5. That's a full 8 points of value we are getting. Give me the OVER 56.5!
|09-16-21||Giants v. Washington Football Team OVER 40.5||Top||29-30||Win||100||34 h 32 m||Show|
50* (NFL) - Thursday Night Football VEGAS INSIDER (Over 40.5)
I will gladly take my chances with the OVER 40.5 on Thursday Night Football in Week 2. Most are going to look at this matchup between NFC East rivals Washington and New York and think it will be low scoring.
Neither team was able to reach 20 points in Week 1, as the Football Team lost 16-20 at home, while the Giants scored just 13 in their 14-point loss at home to the Broncos.
Not only that, Washington lost starting quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick to a hip injury that will have him sidelined 6-8 weeks.
What will get overlook, as it does every year, is the difficulty that comes with playing on just 3 days rest. It's an absolutely brutal turnaround for NFL teams to play on Sunday and then have to play on Thursday. It's just not enough time for these guys to recover.
I believe that really has a negative impact on the defensive side of the ball. So much of what makes a great defense is energy and effort. Both teams figure to be lacking that.
I also don't think these offenses are as bad as people think. While the Giants only scored 13 points, they were able to move the football against a really good Denver defense. New York had 314 yards and 19 first downs. They had 4 drives inside Denver territory that didn't result in any points.
Washington's defense held the Chargers to 20 points. However, I think their defense is a bit overrated. They got a really good player in Chase Young, but as a whole their more middle of the pack in my eyes. LA did have 424 yards and 27 first downs in that game.
As for the Washington offense and the Fitzpatrick injury, I don't think there's a huge drop off from Fitzpatrick to backup Taylor Heinicke. A number of guys on the Football Team voiced their vote for Heinicke to be the starting QB this year.
All we basically need is for 5 TDs to be scored in this game. That should get us to 35. You got to think there's at least 2 field goals, which would put us to 41. Give me the OVER 40.5!
|09-15-21||Rays v. Blue Jays UNDER 9||Top||3-6||Push||0||5 h 6 m||Show|
50* (MLB) AL East Total PLAY OF THE MONTH (Under 9)
I love the UNDER 9 in tonight's big AL East matchup between the Rays and Blue Jays. There was little to no offense in the series opener last night. Tampa Bay won the game 2-0 and the two teams combined for a mere 9 hits. Toronto had scored 8 or more with at least 11 hits on their own in each of their previous 4 games.
It just speaks to how good this Rays pitching staff is. Everything sets up for a similar low-scoring game on Wednesday. Toronto will have Cy Young contender Robbie Ray on the mound. Ray has a 2.69 ERA and 1.033 WHIP in 28 starts with 220 K's in 170 1/3 innings. He's also got a great 1.95 ERA in 9 day starts this season.
Michael Wacha will get the nod for Tampa Bay. His overall numbers aren't great, but he's really been throwing it well of late. Wacha has a 2.35 ERA and 0.718 WHIP in his last 3 outings. He's just got to give us 5-6 and the Rays pen will do the rest. Give me the UNDER 9!
|09-13-21||Ravens v. Raiders UNDER 50.5||Top||27-33||Loss||-110||33 h 32 m||Show|
50* (NFL) - Ravens/Raiders MNF MAX UNIT Top Play (Under 50.5)
I think the best bet on Monday Night Football is the UNDER 50.5. I just don't see this game getting into the 50s.
Baltimore might have a MVP quarterback in Lamar Jackson, but this is a run-first team. They were 1st in rushing in 2020 (191.9 ypg) and dead last in passing (171.2 ypg). I know Lamar might throw more out of necessity with all the injuries the Ravens have had at RB, but that's not playing to his strength.
I also think that Baltimore offense is going up against an improved Raiders defense that has had several big additions at all 3 levels of the defense. They also are getting a new look under new defensive coordinator Gus Bradley. Not to mention this should be an electric atmosphere in Las Vegas' new stadium with fans for the first time in a prime time game. That will fuel that defense.
Baltimore did lose a top level corner in Marcus Peters, but they got some solid depth in the secondary and really bring back the entire core from last year's unit that ranked 6th against the pass and 8th against the run.
The Raiders got some nice weapons at the skill positions and an okay QB in Carr, but I got big time concerns with an offensive line that will have 4 new starters after they traded away 3 of their best linemen in center Rodney Hudson, right tackle Trent Brown and right guard Gabe Jackson. I think they are in trouble against that front 7 of Baltimore. Give me the UNDER 50.5!
|09-12-21||Jets v. Panthers OVER 44||14-19||Loss||-103||86 h 26 m||Show|
40* (NFL) Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Over 44)
I really feel like the books aren't close with the total here. It's the 3rd lowest total on Sunday right now, ahead of only the Dolphins/Pats (43.5) and Broncos/Giants (41.5). Without a doubt the biggest factor here is the Jets defense.
Last year New York gave up 28.6 ppg. They were 28th against the pass, T-20th in sacks, T-23 in interceptions and 24th in total defense. Two of the Jets biggest pickups to help them improve with defensive end Carl Lawson and middle linebacker Jarrad Davis. Lawson has been lost for the year and Davis is on IR.
I just think there's little doubt this Jets defense will be ranking near the bottom of the league in all those categories again in 2021.
I do think one thing that's holding this total back, is people aren't quite ready to trust Sam Darnold in Carolina. Was Darnold very good with the Jets? No. However, not many young QBs would be in that situation. He had no talent around him and horrible coaching.
He's now got one of the rising stars at head coach in Matt Rhule and even more importantly a really good offensive coordinator in Joe Brady. I think Brady's scheme is legit and it didn't look like the old Darnold in training camp. I mean how big is the gap between Christian McCaffrey and the best skill player Darnold played with at New York? I really think this offense is going to be pushing 30 ppg this year.
Last thing for me here is I also think people are sleeping on this Jets offense. New York hired a defensive minded guy in 49ers defensive coordinator Robert Saleh to be their new head coach. What people overlook is he brought along 49ers offensive assistant Mike LaFleur to run the ultra-successful offense that was installed in SF by Kyle Shanahan.
Not only are the Jets going to be better coached on offense, I think they got something in rookie BYU quarterback Zach Wilson. The spotlight doesn't seem to big for this kid. He's really been impressive to this point. He might not be an upgrade in terms of talent over Darnold, at least not now, but the quarterback play in NY is going to be light years better than it was last year.
Last year their top rusher was Frank Gore and leading wide out was Jamison Crowder. I think Tevin Coleman is an upgrade over Gore and Corey Davis has looked like a different guy since coming over from Tennessee. I think they are going to score a lot more (dead last in scoring last year at 15.2 ppg). Give me the OVER 44!
|09-11-21||Toledo v. Notre Dame OVER 55.5||29-32||Win||100||64 h 26 m||Show|
40* (NCAAF) Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Over 55.5)
I was really surprised this total was as low as it was. I was glued to that FSU/Notre Dame game last Sunday. I cashed my ticket on FSU and the points, but the one thing that really stuck with me, was the talent Notre Dame has at the skill position. I knew Michael Mayer was going to be a weapon, but Kevin Austin and Kyren Williams are big time playmakers.
They made former Wisconsin QB Jack Coan look like a serious Heisman threat, as he completed 26 of 35 for 366 yards and had 4 TD passes. I wonder if people have a hard time not referring back to the Coan they saw at Wisconsin. All I know, I liked what I saw out of him in Week 1.
I think when you have doubt about a team's QB, you aren't as quick to back them. I think it possibly has Notre Dame a bit undervalued right now. I would definitely lean laying the points with them. However, I think the much safer bet is on the OVER 55.5.
If the Irish are as dynamic as what I'm expecting, there's a chance they could put up 50. Keep in mind, they had 38 points and a 18-point lead going into the 4th quarter last week. They were outscored 18-0 in the 4th and needed OT. They are not taking their foot off the gas.
I just don't know that Toledo has the kind of talent you need to slow down an offense like this. The MAC is also now the bottom of the barrel in conference hierarchy, having been passed by both the Sun Belt and C-USA. Last 3 times the Rockets have faced a Power 5 team they have given up 38, 49 and 52 points respectively.
As for Toledo's offense, I think they are to help us out and put up some points to really push this past the mark. As much as I was impressed with the talent on ND's offense, I'm really concerned about their defense. They gave up 38 points and 442 yards to a FSU team coming off a 3-win season. Who knows what those numbers would look like if Mike Norvell would have just started McKenzie Milton at QB.
Toledo has 10 starters back from an offense that put up 35.0 ppg and 494 ypg last year. Only once in the last 7 years have they not averaged 35 or more. I mention they give up a lot vs Power 5 teams, but they scored 24, 24 and 30 in those games. If they give us 24, this should be over by the 3rd quarter. Give me the OVER 55.5!
|09-09-21||Cowboys v. Bucs OVER 51||Top||29-31||Win||100||82 h 30 m||Show|
50* (NFL) - Thursday Night Football VEGAS INSIDER (Over 51)
I just don't love the side in this game. I don't trust Dallas, but don't want to lay it with Tampa Bay either. The better bet in this game is on the total and for these two go OVER the number of 51.
It's really a no-brainer if you ask me. You got two of the most talented offensive teams in the NFL going head-to-head.
Tom Brady and the Bucs offense got off to a slow start in 2020, but it didn't last long. After scoring a mere 3-points against the Saints in early November, Tampa Bay put up at least 24 points in each of their last 11 games, scoring 30+ in each of their 4 playoff games.
The Bucs have their entire offense back. They finished last year 7th in total offense and 3rd in scoring. They should be even better the second go around together.
It also doesn't hurt they will be facing one of the least talented defenses in the league in the Cowboys. Nothing Dallas did in the offseason screams they are going to be improved.
It's going to be up to Dak Prescott and the offense to outscore teams to win. Something they are more than capable of doing. Dallas has a plethora of talent at wide receiver. While they have mentioned wanting to run more to help the defense, their strength is throwing the football.
They also aren't going to have a choice against this Bucs defense. TB also brings everyone back on defense and last year they led the league in run defense, giving up 80.6 ypg.
Even if the Cowboy's offense gets off to a slow start, they are built to play from behind and can score in the blink of an eye. I see a final score of something along the lines of TB 38 - DAL 28. That's more than two TDs than the number we are playing. Give me the OVER 51!
|09-08-21||Dodgers v. Cardinals UNDER 8.5||Top||4-5||Loss||-110||10 h 7 m||Show|
50* (MLB) - National League TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Under 8.5)
I will gladly take my chances with the UNDER 8.5 in Wednesday's game between the Dodgers and Cardinals. This is a huge series for both teams. LA is trying to overtake SF in the NL West and St Louis is just 3.5-games back of the Padres for a Wild Card berth.
Some might be hesitant to take the UNDER with how good the Dodgers are offensively and LA not having one of their top guys on the mound. That's where we find the value with this play, as I don't see either being a problem.
The Cardinals will have Adam Wainwright on the mound, who is having a remarkable season at the age of 40 (turned 40 on Aug. 30th). He's 14-7 with a 2.91 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 27 starts. It's not just his age that makes this improbable, he hasn't had a season with an ERA under 3 since 2015. He's certainly not showing any fatigue down the stretch, as he's got a 0.42 ERA and 0.609 WHIP in his last 3 starts.
The Dodgers will have Mitch White on the mound. He's made 3 starts and has a pretty poor 5.73 ERA and 1.545 WHIP. The key here is that this is a plus matchup for him against a Cardinals offense that fails to produce more times than not. St Louis has scored a mere 3 runs in the first 2 games of this series and have scored 3 or fewer in 6 of their last 9. Give me the UNDER 8.5!
|09-04-21||San Jose State v. USC UNDER 60||Top||7-30||Win||100||51 h 55 m||Show|
50* (CFB) - Non Conf TOTAL OF THE WEEK (UNDER 60)
I really like the UNDER 60 in Saturday's non-conference matchup between USC and San Jose State. The total here is suggesting a shootout, but I'm not convinced that will be the case.
I know USC has a really good quarterback in Kedon Slovis, but he's got a lot of new faces it receiver. He gets back his top guy in Drake London, but his second and third favorite targets are gone and two guys that were expected to start are not expected to be available for this game.
You also have to look at what they will be going up against. San Jose State went 7-1 and won the MWC title behind the play of their defense. The Spartans only gave up 19.9 ppg and 346 ypg last year and have 10 of their 11 starters back.
If they can just keep USC from going off for 40+, it's going to be hard for this to get to 60. That's because the Trojans are absolutely loaded on the defensive side of the ball, especially up front on the defensive line and at linebacker.
For San Jose State to score, they are going to have to have a ton of big plays in the passing game. I just don't see it. They get back starting QB Nick Starkel, but he's got to make due without his top two targets from last year in Bailey Gaither and Tre Walker. Those two had 86 catches for 1,352 yards and 8 scores. Give me the UNDER 60!
|09-04-21||UL-Lafayette v. Texas UNDER 58.5||18-38||Win||100||51 h 37 m||Show|
40* (CFB) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 58.5)
I like the UNDER 58.5 in Saturday's matchup between Texas and Louisiana. I just think there's enough question marks with these two offenses to have a total pushing 60.
Let's start with the Longhorns. Texas has to replace one of their better QBs in the history of this program in Sam Ehlinger. He was the heart and soul of that offense last year and now it's on the shoulders of freshman Huson Card.
Let's also not forget the Longhorns are learning a whole new offense under new head coach (also calls the plays) Steve Sarkisian. He was really good at Alabama, but a lot of that was simply talent.
You might be asking what questions I got for a Ragin' Cajuns offense that brings back 10 starters from a team that put up 33.6 ppg and 422 ypg in 2020. It's easily the loss of their top two running backs Elijah Mitchell and Trey Ragas. These two combined to rush for 1,636 yards and 18 TDs. That was in just 11 games. I just don't trust quarterback Levi Lewis to carry the load.
The other big thing is these are two teams that figure to be pretty good defensively. Lafayette only gave up 22 ppg and 355 ypg last year and we really saw how that talent stacks up when they went on the road and held Iowa State to just 14 points and 303 yards in a shocking 31-14 upset of the Cyclones. Give me the UNDER 58.5!
|09-03-21||Rangers v. Angels UNDER 8||2-3||Win||100||12 h 44 m||Show|
40* (MLB) Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 8)
I will gladly take my chances with the UNDER 8 in Friday's AL West matchup between the Angels and Rangers. I look for both teams to have a tough time pushing runs across in this one.
Not a lot explanation needed for why Texas will struggle to score with LA sending out Shohei Ohtani. The guy is 8-1 with a 3.00 ERA and 1.057 WHIP in 19 starts and is 5-0 with a 1.92 ERA and 1.100 WHIP in 10 home starts.
The value with the UNDER lies with Rangers' starter Glenn Otto, who Texas acquired in the trade that send Gallo to the Yankees. Otto was sensational in his first big league start last week against the Astros, holding Houston to just 2 hits with 7 K's over 5 scoreless innings. Give me the UNDER 8!
|09-03-21||North Carolina v. Virginia Tech UNDER 64||Top||10-17||Win||100||29 h 52 m||Show|
50* (CFB) UNC/Va Tech ACC PLAY OF THE MONTH (Under 64)
I will take the UNDER 64 in Friday's ACC showdown between North Carolina and Virginia Tech. I think there's a couple factors that have the number here way too high. One of those being how high scoring last year's game was. The Tar Heels won 56-45 as the two put up over 100 points.
The other is the perception of UNC and how potent are thinking their offense will be with Sam Howell back under center (talk he might be the No. 1 pick in next year's NFL Draft).
I just don't see a repeat of last year. You got to remember that Va Tech had a number of defensive guys miss time because of injury or covid. They also were in the midst of a transition from legendary defensive coordinator Bud Williams. New offensive coordinator Justin Hamilton was behind the 8-ball from the get go. I wouldn't be surprised if the Hokies shaved over a TD off their 32.1 ppg they allowed last year.
I also look at UNC's defense as being much improved. Tar Heels got 10 starters back from a very young unit that suffered through some growing pains. They got the size and speed to be one of the best defenses in Chapel Hill in more than a decade.
As for Howell and the Tar Heels offense, there's no denying Howell's talents. It's not him that has me concerned about the UNC offense. It's the fact that the Tar Heels lost two 1,000 yards rushers, as well as their top two receivers (combined 1,783 yards, 14 TDs). I don't see this offense being near as potent in 2021, especially not early in the year. Give me the UNDER 64!
|09-02-21||Ohio State v. Minnesota OVER 62.5||45-31||Win||100||23 h 50 m||Show|
40* (CFB) - Ohio St/Minn Total NO-BRAINER (Over 62.5)
I will take my chances with the OVER 62.5 in Thursday's Big Ten showdown between Minnesota and Ohio State. I got this one getting into the 70s, as I look for a lot of fireworks offensively from both teams.
There's plenty of skeptics out there with Buckeyes freshman quarterback CJ Stroud and his ability to keep this offense rolling without Justin Fields under center. The hype around Stroud might be a little much, but he's in the perfect situation. Ohio State is loaded at wide receiver, have one of the best offensive lines in the country and are going to be able to run the football.
I just don't think the Gophers have the speed or talent defensively to keep Ohio State from scoring at will. Not even an underrated homefield edge will be able to help them. Minnesota is in the bottom 5 in the Big Ten on the defensive line, at linebacker and in the secondary.
The only way the Gophers are keeping this close, is if they go score for score with the Buckeyes. I'm not so sure they will be able to score enough to cover the 14-point spread, but I feel pretty good about them scoring enough to push this over the total.
Minnesota's got 10 starters back on offense. They have an experienced signal caller in Tanner Morgan, a first team Big Ten back in Mohamed Ibrahim and one of the top offensive lines in the country. They will be up a very inexperienced Ohio State defense that has just 2 starters back on the front 7 and loses their top 5 tacklers. Keep in mind this is a defense that slipped last year, giving up over 400 ypg. It wouldn't shock me if the Gophers scored 30+ in this game. Give me the OVER 62.5!
|09-02-21||South Florida v. NC State OVER 58.5||Top||0-45||Loss||-110||27 h 20 m||Show|
50* (CFB) - Big Money MAX UNIT Top Play (OVER 58.5)
I love the OVER 58.5 in Thursday's matchup that has NC State hosting USF. I would be shocked if these two teams failed to hit 60 in this one.
NC State is going to have a potent offense in 2021. I really like sophomore quarterback Devin Leary. He only made 3 starts last year before being lost for the season. He threw for 890 yards with a 8-2 TD/INT ratio in those 3 starts. They got everyone back at the skill positions and a veteran offensive line.
That offense will be up against a Bulls defense that has a lot of question marks. South Florida couldn't stop anybody last year. They gave up 39.9 ppg and 441 ypg. That's with them holding the Citadel to a mere 6-points on 284 yards. They gave up over 200 ypg and 5.0 ypc against the run and opposing QBs completed 60% of their attempts.
The big key here is I think USF is going to be able to put up a decent amount of points as well. Even with 10 starters back on defense, I got big time concerns with the Wolfpack on that side of the ball. They gave up 40+ points 4 times.
As for the Bulls offense, I think they are going to be one of the most improved units in the country after averaging just 23.1 ppg and 365 ypg last year. They got one of the rising stars at OC in Charlie Weis Jr. The problem last year is it was the first year under a new staff and their just wasn't the proper time to implant the offense with the pandemic. We saw a bit of a flash of their potential in last year's finale, as they put up 46 points and nearly 650 yards (646) in a game against UCF. Give me the OVER 58.5!
|09-01-21||Red Sox v. Rays UNDER 8||Top||3-2||Win||100||22 h 1 m||Show|
50* (MLB) - AL East PLAY OF THE WEEK (UNDER 8)
I'll gladly take my chances with the UNDER 8 in Wednesday's AL East showdown between the Rays and Red Sox. I just think we are getting a great number with 8 given the starting pitching matchup.
Boston will send out Chris Sale, who outside of not pitching deep in games, has been really good over his first 3 starts in 2021. Sale has a 2.35 ERA and 1.044 WHIP. He's also got a 2.48 xFIP, so there's nothing fluky about those numbers.
Tampa Bay will counter with Drew Rasmussen. He too hasn't made many starts. This will be just the 6th start of the season for Rasmussen. However, he's got a strong 2.50 ERA and 0.778 WHIP in 5 starts. He's also made 4 of those 5 starts on the road (didn't give up a run in his lone home start). Give me the UNDER 8!
|08-26-21||White Sox v. Blue Jays UNDER 8.5||Top||10-7||Loss||-115||5 h 18 m||Show|
50* (MLB) - Thursday Big Money MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 8.5)
I will gladly take my chances with the UNDER 8.5 in Thursday's game between the Blue Jays and White Sox. We cashed this exact same bet last night with these two teams. I just don't see why we would expect anything but another lower scoring game.
The first 3 games have all seen 7 or fewer runs. Toronto won 2-1 on Monday and 3-1 yesterday. Chicago won the second game 5-2. Tonight it's Carlos Rodon going for the White Sox and Hyun-Jin Ryu for the Blue Jays.
Rodon is 9-5 with a 2.38 ERA and 0.957 WHIP in 19 starts this season. He does have a very mediocre 4.15 ERA in his last 3 starts, but was at his best in his last outing, tossing 5 scoreless innings, giving up just 2 hits and racking up 11 K's.
Ryu is 12-6 with a 3.54 ERA and 1.150 WHIP in 24 starts. He's got an even more ugly 5.82 ERA in his last 3 starts. However, he too is coming off a great outing. Ryu just pitched 7 scoreless in his last start. Give me the UNDER 8.5!
|08-25-21||White Sox v. Blue Jays UNDER 8.5||Top||1-3||Win||100||21 h 35 m||Show|
50* (MLB) - Wednesday Big Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Under 8.5)
I'll gladly take my chances with the UNDER 8.5 in Wednesday's big AL showdown between the Blue Jays and White Sox. Each of the first two games have been low scoring. Toronto won 2-1 on Monday and Chicago won 5-2 on Tuesday.
All signs point to more struggles offensively with the starting pitching matchup on Wednesday. White Sox will have the red-hot Lucas Giolito on the mound, while the Blue Jays counter with one of their best starters in Robbie Ray.
Giolito has had his fair share of clunkers this season, but overall it's been pretty good. He's got a 3.77 ERA and 1.101 WHIP in 25 starts. He's got a 2.37 ERA and 0.737 WHIP with 24 K's in 19 innings over his last 3 starts.
Ray is 9-4 with a 2.79 ERA and 1.039 WHIP in 24 starts. His ERA is even better at 2.64 in 12 home starts and he's got a sensational 1.29 ERA and 0.714 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Give me the UNDER 8.5!
|08-24-21||Tigers v. Cardinals UNDER 8||Top||4-3||Win||100||20 h 26 m||Show|
50* (MLB) - Tuesday Big Money MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 8)
I'll take my chances with the UNDER 8 in Tuesday's interleague matchup that has the Cardinals hosting the Tigers. I think the total here should be 7.5 at the most and even then I would still be looking to back the UNDER. There's no debate on it at 8.
This is a really good starting pitching matchup. St Louis will have Jack Flaherty on the mound and he's been incredible in his two starts since coming back from injury. He allowed just 2 hits over 6 scoreless innings at the Royals in his first start and then gave up just 2 runs (both solo HR) in 6 innings at home against the Brewers. He's now 4-0 with a 1.74 ERA and 0.742 WHIP in 5 home starts this season.
Detroit counters with Casey Mize, who is a classic case of a guy that just gets overlooked because of how bad his team is. Mize is a very respectable 6-6 with a 3.69 ERA and 1.166 WHIP in 23 starts this season. Definitely helps the Cardinals aren't exactly swinging the bats well, as they have scored 4 or fewer in 5 of their last 6 games. Give me the UNDER 8!
|08-19-21||Patriots v. Eagles UNDER 38.5||Top||35-0||Win||100||20 h 22 m||Show|
50* (NFLX) - Pats/Eagles Thursday Night VEGAS INSIDER (UNDER 38.5)
I think we are getting some great value with the UNDER at 38.5. I know both of these teams played in relatively high-scoring games in their first preseason matchups, but the Eagles only managed 16 points against the Steelers and all of those came in the 1st half. Patriots game with Washington was just 9-7 going into the 4th quarter.
It's also worth noting that these two teams have been doing some joint practices leading up to this game. With limited playbooks in the preseason, both defenses should be at an advantage. Give me the UNDER 38.5!
|08-18-21||Mariners v. Rangers UNDER 9||Top||3-1||Win||100||10 h 28 m||Show|
50* (MLB) - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER Top Play (UNDER 9)
I'll take my chances with the UNDER 9 in Wednesday's game between the Rangers and Mariners. Yesterday we played and won with Seattle on the money line. I wanted to fire back with the Mariners, but I don't want to bet against Texas' Mike Foltynewicz. I think with him on the mound, the value has shifted to the UNDER.
Foltynewicz is just 2-11 with a 5.66 ERA over 23 starts. Not great. However, he's been really good of late. He has a 3.00 ERA and 0.944 WHIP over his last 3 starts. The most recent coming on the road against these same Mariners, where he held Seattle to just 3 runs over 7 innings.
Mariners will have Marco Gonzales on the mound. He too has been lights out down the stretch. Gonzales has a 0.83 ERA and 0.600 WHIP over his last 3 starts. Give me the UNDER 9!
|08-03-21||Giants v. Diamondbacks UNDER 9.5||Top||1-3||Win||100||12 h 3 m||Show|
50* (MLB) NL West TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Under 9.5)
I love the UNDER 9.5 in Tuesday's NL West showdown between the Giants and Diamondbacks. We got an old school starting pitching matchup, as veterans Johnny Cueto and Madison Bumgarner face off.
One big difference is Bumgarner isn't on the mound for San Francisco. This will be just the second time he's faced off against his former team. You know he wants to pitch well.
Bumgarner returned after the All-Star break after nearly a month away. He's been on top of his game, posting a 2.00 ERA and 0.833 WHIP in 3 starts. Cueto has also made 3 starts since the All-Star break and he's got a 2.30 ERA and 0.30 WHIP. Give me the UNDER 9.5!
|07-27-21||A's v. Padres UNDER 8.5||Top||4-7||Loss||-100||12 h 4 m||Show|
50* (MLB) - Late Night NO LIMIT Top Play (Under 8.5)
I love the UNDER 8.5 in tonight's interleague showdown between the A's and Padres. While it's going to be extremely hot at several ballparks today, it's going to be pretty mild at Petco Park when this game goes off. Temps are expected to be in the low 70s with the wind blowing in at close to 10 mph from left field.
You also have to look at how these two offenses come into this game. The A's are averaging just 3.7 runs/game and hitting .222 as a team over their last 7. The Padres are even worse, averaging just 3.4 runs/game and hitting .193 as a team in their last 7.
It's also not a bad pitching matchup. Oakland's James Kaprielian has a 2.65 ERA and 1.117 WHIP in 12 starts. While San Diego's Chris Paddack has a not so great 4.77 ERA and 1.271 WHIP in 18 starts, his xFIP is a mere 3.78, which suggests he's been much better the the numbers show. Give me the UNDER 8.5!
|07-25-21||White Sox v. Brewers UNDER 7.5||Top||3-1||Win||100||10 h 50 m||Show|
50* (MLB) Sunday Night Baseball VEGAS INSIDER (Under 7.5)
I'll take my chance with the UNDER 7.5 in tonight's Sunday Night Baseball showdown between the White Sox and Brewers. Two really good starters take the mound in this one. Chicago will turn to Lance Lynn, while Brandon Woodruff goes for Milwaukee.
Lynn is 9-3 with a 1.94 ERA and 1.034 WHIP in 17 starts. He's coming into this game in great form too, as he has a 1.42 ERA and 1.158 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Woodruff is 7-4 with a 2.04 ERA and 0.832 WHIP in 19 starts he's got a 2.14 ERA in 9 home starts. Give me the UNDER 7.5!
|07-20-21||Suns v. Bucks UNDER 222.5||Top||98-105||Win||100||22 h 20 m||Show|
50* (NBA) - Suns/Bucks Game 6 MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 222.5)
As much as I wanted to go take the points with Phoenix here, the Suns have burnt me the last two games of this series. I also think the much stronger play in this one is the OVER. While these two teams combined for 242 in Game 5, Milwaukee had one of the greatest team shooting games in NBA Finals history. They couldn't miss in the 2nd and 3rd quarter. Phoenix was also on fire, as they shot 55.2% from the field.
Look for the shooting to cool off in the first elimination game of the series. Phoenix must win to force a Game 7, so we know they are going to give everything they got defensively. While Milwaukee is up, this game is huge for them too. They don't want this to go to a Game 7. Give me the UNDER 222.5!
|07-20-21||Cubs v. Cardinals OVER 8.5||7-6||Win||100||21 h 27 m||Show|
40* (MLB) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Over 8.5)
I really like the OVER 8.5 in Tuesday's NL Central showdown between the Cubs and Cardinals. These two combined for 11 runs in the series opener Monday, as St Louis won 8-3. I think we could see even more offense in Game 2.
Chicago will send out Trevor Williams, who has a poor 5.36 ERA and 1.603 WHIP in 10 starts. Williams also owns a 8.05 ERA and 2.053 WHIP in 5 road starts. St Louis counters with Johan Oviedo. He's 0-5 with a 5.59 ERA and 1.635 WHIP in 11 starts.
Williams has a 5.74 ERA and 1.616 WHIP in 13 career starts against the Cardinals, while Oviedo has a 5.79 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in 3 starts vs the Cubs. Give me the OVER 8.5!
|07-17-21||Astros v. White Sox UNDER 8.5||1-10||Loss||-100||10 h 42 m||Show|
40* (MLB) Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 8.5)
I'll take my chances with the UNDER 8.5 in Saturday's AL showdown between the Astros and White Sox. I just don't see these two teams getting to 9 runs with the talent these two teams will have on the mound.
Chicago will send out ace Lucas Giolito. While he hasn't been as dominant as he was in 2020, he's pitched much better than his 4.15 ERA and there's proof in that with his strong 1.173 WHIP. Giolito also owns a 3.47 ERA and 1.070 WHIP in 9 home starts.
Jake Odorizzi will get the ball for Houston. He's got a 2.84 ERA and 0.790 WHIP in 5 road starts and posted a sensational 1.59 ERA and 0.941 WHIP in his last 3 starts before the All-Star break. Give me the UNDER 8.5!
|07-08-21||Nationals v. Padres UNDER 7||8-9||Loss||-110||23 h 37 m||Show|
40* (MLB) Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 7)
This almost feels to obvious, but I just can't help myself. I'm taking the UNDER 7 in Thursday's game between the Padres and Nationals. Two of the best the MLB has to offer will be starting in this game.
Washington will have Max Scherzer going. I think we expect so much out of Scherzer, that his 2.10 ERA and 0.848 WHIP doesn't get viewed like we would with some others He's been even better than that of late with a 1.59 ERA in his last 3 starts.
Yu Darvish gets the ball for San Diego. He's 7-3 with a 2.65 ERA and 0.951 WHIP in 17 starts. He's also got a 2.12 ERA and 0.897 WHIP in 11 home starts. Give me the UNDER 7!
|07-06-21||Red Sox v. Angels UNDER 8.5||Top||3-5||Win||100||12 h 10 m||Show|
50* (MLB) - Red Sox/Angels MAX UNIT Top Play (Under 8.5)
I love the UNDER 8.5 in Tuesday's showdown between the Red Sox and Angles. Two of the AL's top starters will be on the mound in this one. Boston will send out Nathan Eovaldi, who is 9-4 with a 3.32 ERA and 1.188 WHIP in 17 starts. He's been lights out of late, posting a 1.93 ERA in his last 3 starts. In just his last two outings, he's given up a mere 1 ER in 14 2/3 innings.
LA will counter with Shohei Ohtani, who is 3-1 with a 3.60 ERA and 1.266 WHIP in 12 starts. Ohtani has been at his best at home this season, where he owns a sensational 1.73 ERA and 1.266 WHIP in 7 starts. Give me the UNDER 8.5!
|07-06-21||A's v. Astros UNDER 8.5||6-9||Loss||-113||11 h 40 m||Show|
40* (MLB) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 8.5)
I'll gladly take my chances with the UNDER 8.5 in Tuesday's action between the Astros and A's. These two AL West rivals figure to have a hard time scoring runs with the top tier talent they are sending out to the mound.
Oakland will turn to Chris Bassitt, who is 9-2 with a 3.04 ERA in 17 starts. Bassitt is 5-0 with a 3.52 ERA in 9 road starts and has a 1.35 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Houston will send out Framber Valdez, who is 5-1 with a 2.18 ERA in 7 starts. Valdez has an even better 2.00 ERA in 3 home starts. Give me the UNDER 8.5!
|07-03-21||Padres v. Phillies UNDER 8||2-4||Win||100||21 h 52 m||Show|
40* (MLB) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 8)
I think we are getting some big time value with the UNDER at 8 in Saturday's game between the Phillies and the Padres. I like both starters quite a bit in this spot.
Hard to not like Yu Darvish. Guy has a 2.44 ERA and 0.937 WHIP in 16 starts this season. In his last 2 starts he's given up just 2 ER in 12 innings with 18 K's to just 2 BB's. Darvish also owns a 1.42 ERA and 0.869 WHIP in 4 career starts against the Phillies.
Zach Eflin is where it gets tricky and where I think the value is. Eflin is just 2-6 with a 4.20 ERA and 1.255 WHIP in 15 starts and has an ugly 5.62 ERA and 1.375 WHIP in his last 3 outings. All 3 of those were on the road. Eflin has been a different guy at home. He's got a 2.13 ERA and 1.158 WHIP in 6 home starts. Give me the UNDER 8!
|07-01-21||Mariners v. Blue Jays UNDER 9.5||7-2||Win||100||3 h 3 m||Show|
40* (MLB) - Early Bird Total NO-BRAINER (Under 9.5)
I'm going to take the UNDER 9.5 between the Blue Jays and Mariners. I know these two just combined for 16 runs yesterday and Toronto has been hitting the cover off the ball, but 9.5 is just too high a number for the talent these two teams are sending to the mound.
Blue Jays will send out Hyun-Jin Ryu, who has a respectable 3.41 ERA and 1.104 WHIP in 15 starts. Seattle will counter with Yusei Kikuchi, who has a 3.23 ERA and 1.031 WHIP in 15 starts overall, 2.70 ERA in 8 road starts and a 0.92 ERA over his last 3 starts. Give me the UNDER 9.5!
|06-27-21||Indians v. Twins OVER 9.5||2-8||Win||100||4 h 25 m||Show|
40* (MLB) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Over 9.5)
I'm expecting a ton of offense in Sunday's game between the Indians and Twins, as I got these two teams easily surpassing the total of 9.5. Minnesota's offense is in a groove right now. Twins have scored 7 or more runs in 5 of their last 8 games, including 3 of their last 4.
They will be up against Sam Hentges, who has an ugly 6.27 ERA and 1.821 WHIP in 5 starts. He did throw 5 scoreless innings in his last start, but that was against a bad Pirates offense, so don't read into that. I don't see him sticking around long in this one.
J.A. Happ will start for Minnesota. He hasn't been much better with a 6.09 ERA and 1.492 WHIP in 13 starts. It's not been getting any better for Happ, who has a 7.90 ERA and 2.121 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Play the OVER 9.5!
|06-25-21||Hawks v. Bucks UNDER 226||Top||91-125||Win||100||11 h 1 m||Show|
50* (NBA) Hawks/Bucks MAX UNIT Top Play (Under 226)
I think we are getting a really great price on the UNDER (226) in Game 2 of the Eastern Conference Finals. While Game 1 went over the total of 223.5 in the Hawks 116-113 win, it didn't get their by much.
That was with some really big offensive performances by both teams. Trae Young had a game-high 48. He's getting all the praise and rightfully so, but John Collins had a monster game with 23 points and 15 boards. For the Bucks, they got 34 from Antetokoumpo and 33 from Holiday.
We know we are going to get the best Milwaukee has to offer on the defensive side to avoid going down 0-2 before Game 3 in Atlanta. You also got to think that both teams will make some adjustments to slow the other team down. Give me the UNDER 226!
|06-25-21||Pirates v. Cardinals OVER 8.5||5-4||Win||100||10 h 14 m||Show|
40* (MLB) - Situational Total ANNIHILATOR (Over 8.5)
I know it's hard to take the OVER with how the Cardinals are struggling to score runs right now, but 8.5 is just too low a number for today's game. With the heat index approaching 100-degrees and the wind blowing out to left, the ball should be flying out of the park today. Not to mention that kind of heat can really wear down a pitcher.
You also got to think that Pittsburgh's William Crowe is the guy to be facing for St Louis to snap out of their offensive funk. Crowe has made 9 starts for the Pirates and is 0-4 with a 6.30 ERA and 1.525 WHIP. If we can just get a little from the Cardinals in this one, we should easily get to 9 runs in this game. Give me the OVER 8.5!
|06-18-21||White Sox v. Astros UNDER 8||1-2||Win||100||10 h 11 m||Show|
40* (MLB) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (UNDER 8)
I'll take my chances with the UNDER 8 in Friday's matchup between the Astros and White Sox. I just think 8 is a pretty big number with the talent these two teams are sending out on the mound.
Chicago will have Carlos Rodon on the mound and he's been spectacular in 2021. Rodon is 6-2 with a 1.89 ERA and 0.840 WHIP in 11 starts. It hasn't mattered where he's pitched, as he's got a 1.80 ERA and 0.943 WHIP in 6 road starts.
Houston counters with Luis Garcia, who is also having a great year. Garcia has a 2.98 ERA and 1.047 WHIP in 11 starts. He's been even better at home with a 1.91 ERA and 0.918 WHIP in 5 home starts. Give me the UNDER 8!
|06-17-21||Rays v. Mariners UNDER 8.5||Top||5-6||Loss||-104||11 h 52 m||Show|
50* (MLB) - Over/Under PLAY OF THE MONTH (Under 8.5)
I absolutely love the UNDER 8.5 in Thursday's late night action that has the Rays visiting the Mariners. There's a lot to like with both starters going in this one.
Tampa Bay's Rich Hill has a strong 3.37 ERA in 13 stats, but has been even better than that of late with a 2.45 ERA in his last 3 starts. It's also worth pointing out that in Hill's last 4 road starts he's given up a whopping 1 run on 9 hits in 22 innings of work.
Justin Dunn will counter for Seattle and he's quietly having a strong season. Dunn has a 3.91 ERA in 10 starts. He's also been lights out at home with a 2.95 ERA and 1.265 WHIP in 4 home starts. Not only is Dunn throwing well, but TB's hitters may be a bit off here with the travel from Chicago all the way out west to Seattle. Give me the UNDER 8.5!
|06-16-21||Reds v. Brewers UNDER 8||2-1||Win||100||4 h 6 m||Show|
40* (MLB) Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 8)
I'll take my chances with the UNDER 8 in Wednesday's NL Central clash between the Brewers and Reds. These two offenses couldn't get anything going yesterday, as they headed to extra innings without a run on the board. Cincinnati wound up winning 2-1 in 10 innings with the two teams combing for just 6 hits.
When you look at the starting pitching matchup for today's game, it's hard to see either offense getting back on track. The Reds' Tyler Mahle has been a beast when he's not having to start at home at hitter friendly Great American Ball Park. Mahle has a 1.44 ERA and 0.962 WHIP in 8 road starts. Milwaukee counters with Freddy Peralta, who has been great from the get go. Peralta has a 2.32 ERA and 0.833 WHIP in 12 starts with a 1.45 ERA and 0.563 WHIP in 6 home starts. Give me the UNDER 8!
|06-15-21||Rangers v. Astros UNDER 8.5||3-6||Loss||-109||10 h 2 m||Show|
40* (MLB) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 8.5)
I'll take my chances with the UNDER 8.5 in Tuesday's series opener between the Rangers and Astros. I just feel like it's asking a lot for these two teams to put up 9 runs in a game that will feature two of the AL's better starters.
Texas will give the rock to Kyle Gibson, who has a sensational 2.14 ERA and 1.005 WHIP in 12 starts. He's shown no signs of slowing down. In fact, he's got an even better 1.56 ERA in his last 3 starts.
Houston will counter with Lance McCullers Jr. He's got a similarly strong 2.96 ERA and 1.161 WHIP in 9 starts. He too is trending right with a 1.89 ERA in his last 3 starts.
These two also have a great track record against the opponent. Gibson has a 2.49 ERA in 11 career starts against the Astros, having allowed just 5 runs (35 innings) in his last 5 starts vs Houston. McCullers has a mere 3.88 ERA in 11 starts vs Texas, but has allowed just 3 runs in his last 4 outings vs them. He's also now allowed more than 3 ER in 10 of the 11 starts. Give me the UNDER 8.5!
|06-14-21||76ers v. Hawks OVER 225.5||100-103||Loss||-100||10 h 17 m||Show|
40* (NBA) - 76ers/Hawks VEGAS INSIDER (Over 225.5)
I'll take my chances with the OVER 225.5 in Game 4 between the 76ers and Hawks. These two flew past the total (224.5) in Game 3, combing for 338 points in Philly's 127-111 win. I just think we are going to see a similar type of game that should easily get to the 230s.
The size advantage the 76ers have is really making things easy for them offensively. Philadelphia has shot 55%, 53% and 58% from the field in the 3 games. There's only been one playoff game this year where they shot worse than 50%. That's not going to change in this series with all the easy looks they are getting inside.
Atlanta's only choice is to outscore them and they definitely got the fire-power to do that on their home floor. Hawks have shot 51%, 46% and 48% in the series, so it's not like they aren't getting good looks. They had 111 points in Game 3, despite shooting just 6 of 23 (26%) from behind the 3-point line. Give me the OVER 225.5!
|06-13-21||Rockies v. Reds OVER 9.5||2-6||Loss||-110||4 h 7 m||Show|
40* (MLB) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Over 9.5)
We have cashed the OVER in each of the first two games in this series between the Reds and Rockies. The two combined for 16 runs in the series opener on Friday and for 13 in yesterday's matchup. With another hot day at Great American Ball Park (heat index in the mid-upper 90s), I see no reason why they won't reach double-digits on Sunday.
Reds could eclipse this total on their own. Cincinnati has done the heavy lifting in this series, scoring 11 and 10 runs in the first two games. Colorado has allowed 10 or more now in 3 straight and starter Antonio Senzatela comes in with an ugly 6.75 ERA and 1.903 WHIP in 4 road starts this season.
Reds are starting Tony Santillan, who will be making his first ever big league start. While Santillan has pitched well in the minors, chances are he struggles in the tough pitching conditions today. Give me the OVER 9.5!
|06-12-21||Rockies v. Reds OVER 9||Top||3-10||Win||100||7 h 44 m||Show|
50* (MLB) Saturday SHARP MONEY Top Play (OVER 9)
We cashed the OVER 9 in Friday's series opener between these two teams as they combined for 16 in Cincinnati's 11-5 win. That's now two straight games Colorado has given up 11 runs and the 6th time in their last 8 games they have allowed 6 or more runs.
I know we got two decent starters going in German Marquez and Wade Miley, but it's going to be absolute brutal pitching conditions today with the heat index pushing 100 degrees and little to no wind (4 mph). Add in how the ball already flies out of Great American Ball Park, and it just doesn't seem like much for these two teams to hit double-digits. Give me the OVER 9!
|06-11-21||Suns v. Nuggets OVER 222.5||116-102||Loss||-110||13 h 39 m||Show|
40* (NBA) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Over 222.5)
I'll take my chances with the OVER 222.5 in Game 3 between the Suns/Nuggets. Usually I lean towards the UNDER the deeper the series goes, but 222.5 just doesn't feel like near enough. These two teams combined for 227 in Game 1 and 221 in Game 2. That's with the Nuggets only scoring 105 and 95.
Nuggets are scoring 117.9 ppg on their home floor this season. Last time they were home was Game 5 in their first round series with Portland and they put up 147 in a game that saw 287 combined points. Both Game 1 and Game 2 in Denver got to the 230's.
Key here is that while I think the Nuggets will get a big boost offensively at home, I don't think the Nuggets defense is going to have any better luck trying to slow down this Suns offense. Phoenix really got whatever they wanted. As long as they don't go ice cold, this thing should fly past the mark. Give me the OVER 222.5!
|06-11-21||Rockies v. Reds OVER 9||5-11||Win||100||9 h 29 m||Show|
40* (MLB) - Situational VEGAS STEAMROLLER (Over 9)
I will take my chances with the OVER 9 in Friday's MLB matchup that has the Reds visiting the Rockies. With the way the ball flies out of Great American Ball Park, especially this time of year where it's 80+ degrees with some humidity, 10 runs really isn't a lot to ask for.
You also got to like the pitching matchup for runs. Colorado's Kyle Freeland has a 6.23 ERA and 2.077 WHIP in 3 starts, giving up 19 hits and 8 walks in 13 innings of work. Reds' Tyler Mahle has a strong 3.18 ERA in 12 starts overall, but owns a 7.23 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in 4 home outings. Give me the OVER 9!
|06-10-21||Yankees v. Twins OVER 10.5||5-7||Win||100||10 h 1 m||Show|
40* (MLB) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Over 10.5)
I'll take my chances with the OVER 10.5 in Thursday's game between the Yankees and Twins. These two combined for 12 runs in Game 1 of this series and 15 in Game 2 yesterday. I see no reason not to expect another high scoring affair tonight.
Yankees will be starting Michael King, who has given up 8 runs on 9 hits in 7 2/3 innings over 2 starts. I think it's also worth pointing out that King had a 7.75 ERA and 1.54 WHIP in 9 appearances (4 starts) last year.
Twins will counter with J.A. Happ, who has a 5.61 ERA and 1.325 WHIP in 10 starts with a 6.19 ERA and 1.437 WHIP in his last 3 outings.
Also doesn't hurt that it's going to be in the mid 90's during this game with little to no wind. The heat could lead to both starters wearing down quick, as well as help the ball carry a little further. Give me the OVER 10.5!
|06-09-21||Royals v. Angels OVER 9||1-6||Loss||-105||12 h 20 m||Show|
40* (MLB) Late Night Total NO-BRAINER (Over 9)
I'll take my chances with the OVER 9 in Wednesday's late night action between the Angels/Royals. Both teams could be in store for a big day offensively in this one. KC is sending out Brad Keller, who has a 5.50 ERA and 1.707 WHIP in 12 starts. He's also facing a LA lineup that has scored 33 runs in their last 4 games.
Angels' will counter with Griffin Canning, who probably should be demoted. Canning has a 5.71 ERA and 1.537 WHIP in 9 starts. He's only had one start all season where he's completed 6 innings. He's also got an 8.74 ERA and 1.853 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Play the OVER 9!
|06-09-21||Yankees v. Twins OVER 8.5||Top||9-6||Win||100||11 h 56 m||Show|
50* (MLB) - Wednesday MAX UNIT Top Play (OVER 8.5)
I love the OVER 8.5 in Wednesday's game between the Twins/Yankees. Minnesota will have Randy Dobak on the mound. After not giving up a run in 6 innings in his first start at Cleveland, Dobak has allowed 9 runs on 17 hits and 3 walks in his last 2 starts.
Yankees will have Gerrit Cole on the mound. While Cole is a big nam,e and has been pretty good so far in 2021, he just gave up 5 runs in 5 innings in his last start. I think his struggles could be part of him stopping using whatever illegal substance he was using. He's also facing a hot Twins lineup that has racked up 10+ hits in 4 of their last 5 games. Play the OVER 8.5!
|06-07-21||Nuggets v. Suns UNDER 220.5||Top||105-122||Loss||-101||12 h 25 m||Show|
50* (NBA) - Monday MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 220.5)
I'm going to take my chances with the UNDER 220.5 in Game 1 between the Nuggets/Suns. These two teams played 3 times in the regular-season. Suns won 106-103 in the first meeting, Denver won 130-126 in overtime and 120-112 in double-overtime the next two.
So while it looks like 2 of the 3 were high scoring, the game that ended with 156 had 28 points scored after regulation (tied 114-114) and in the game that had 132 there were 36 scored in extra time (tied 98-98). Denver has also lost two starters since the last time they played in Jamal Murray and Will Barton.
I think there's value with this total due to the Nuggets coming off a high-scoring series against the Blazers. Phoenix and Portland are actually tied (4th) in offensive efficiency at 114.9. The big difference is defense. Suns are 9th in defensive efficiency at 108.8 and the Blazers are 29th at 113.4. Phoenix is also tied with Denver in pace at 26th, where Portland was tied for 16th in pace. Give me the UNDER 220.5!
|06-06-21||Mavs v. Clippers UNDER 212||111-126||Loss||-113||22 h 24 m||Show|
40* (NBA) - Mavs/Clippers Game 7 NO-BRAINER (UNDER 212)
I'm going to take the UNDER 212 in Game 7 between the Mavs and Clippers. UNDERs are always a strong way to look in any Game 7. There's a lot more than just winner takes all that keeps these games lower scoring.
You have to keep in mind these teams have played each other 6 times in a little over a week now. Both teams know what kind of adjustments the other team is going to make and they know how to defend them. You also got tired legs, which can lead to poor shooting. Lastly, the pressure of a Game 7.
These two haven't combined for more than 205 in each of the last 3 games in the series. I don't see them breaking that trend in this one. Give me the UNDER 212!
|06-03-21||Suns v. Lakers UNDER 207.5||Top||113-100||Loss||-106||13 h 12 m||Show|
50* (NBA) - Suns/Lakers MAX UNIT Top Play (Under 207.5)
I like the UNDER 207.5 in Game 6 tonight between the Lakers and Suns. I'm torn on whether or not LA can win this game, but I am pretty confident that it will be low scoring. I think the Lakers are not only desperate facing elimination, but also embarrassed from that ugly loss in Game 5. The level of intensity they are going to have at home with their backs against the wall is going to be really high.
At the same time, I don't think the Suns are feeling good about things. Sure they like that AD is hurt, but this thing can flip in a hurry if he comes back. Chris Paul knows to not like his team take this game lightly, just because they got a Game 7 at home if needed. I expect Phoenix to be just as motivated here to finish this thing off. I just don't think there's going to be enough pace and shot making to get this to the 210 range. Give me the UNDER 207.5!
|05-26-21||Grizzlies v. Jazz OVER 219||129-141||Win||100||12 h 15 m||Show|
40* (NBA) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Over 219)
I don't play a ton of OVERs in the NBA playoffs, but the OVER 219 in Wednesday's Jazz/Grizzlies game is one I just can't help myself with. These two combined for 221 in Game 1 and that was with neither team shooting great.
The Jazz were especially off their game, shooting 42.0% from the field and 25.5% from behind the 3-point line. Utah in the regular-season shot 47% from the field and 38.8% from behind the 3-point line at home, where they averaged 117.2 ppg.
I think the Jazz were sleep walking a bit after the week layoff and it definitely didn't help matters that star player Donovan Mitchell was a late scratch. He's expected to play in Game 2, but either way Utah will be more mentally ready if he can't go.
I could see the Jazz eclipsing the 220 mark in this one and confident we are going to get enough from Memphis to cash this ticket. Give me the OVER 219!
|05-22-21||Celtics v. Nets UNDER 229.5||93-104||Win||100||22 h 52 m||Show|
40* (NBA) - Nets/Celtics VEGAS INSIDER (Under 229.5)
I think the UNDER 229.5 is worthy of a play in Game 1 Saturday between the Nets and Celtics. People are just assuming Brooklyn can't be stopped with the Big 3 of Durant, Irving and Harden all healthy. They also see Boston just score 118 in their win over Washington on Tuesday.
I'm not about to say the Nets won't lethal on offense, but let's not forget they didn't a lot of time together in the regular-season. I also don't trust the Celtics offense without Jaylen Brown. Tatum put up 50 in that game against the Wizards and they still only had 118.
What I think people are sleeping on is the Nets defense. They got better and better on that side of the ball as the season went on. I also think all 3 of the Big 3 have the ability to take their defense to a different level. They just don't need to play hard on that side of the ball in the regular-season. I think they make it really tough on Tatum and the Boston offense. I just don't think they get to 230. Give me the UNDER 229.5!
|05-21-21||Grizzlies v. Warriors UNDER 221||Top||117-112||Loss||-100||12 h 60 m||Show|
50* (NBA) - Grizzlies/Warriors MAX UNIT Top Play (Under 221)
I will gladly take my chances with the UNDER 221 in Friday's Play-In matchup for the No. 8 seed between the Warriors and Grizzlies. While we just watched the Wizards/Pacers fly past the total last night, the UNDER has hit in 3 of the 5 play-in games with the only two OVERs coming in games that involved the Pacers.
The Grizzlies/Spurs matchup on Wednesday went UNDER the total of 225 by 29 points, as the Grizzlies won that game by a final of 100-96. The Warriors/Lakers game stayed UNDER the total of 217 by 14 as LA won 103-100.
Both of these teams were exceptional on the defensive end, as Memphis held the Spurs to just 35% shooting, while Golden State held the Lakers to 40.7% from the field. If you go back it's nothing new. Grizzlies have held 6 of their last 7 opponents to 44% or worse, while the Warriors have held 7 of their last 10 under that mark. These two played late in the regular-season and only combined for 214 points and that was with GW shooting 49%. Give me the UNDER 221!
|05-21-21||Diamondbacks v. Rockies OVER 11||1-7||Loss||-101||11 h 22 m||Show|
40* (MLB) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Over 11)
I will gladly take my chances with the OVER 11 in Friday's series opener between NL West rivals Colorado and Arizona. The ball figures to be flying out of Coors Field tonight. Not only will temps by in the high 70s, but the wind will be blowing out to right center at close to 15 mph.
We also got a subpar pitching matchup with Arizona sending out Seth Frankoff and the Rockies turning to German Marquez. Not to mention both offenses will be happy to see Coors Field. Dbacks just played a 4-game series at the Dodgers and the Rockies played 3 in a row at San Diego. Both of those parks heavily favor pitching. Play the OVER 11!
|05-21-21||White Sox v. Yankees UNDER 8.5||1-2||Win||100||10 h 39 m||Show|
40* (MLB) - Situational VEGAS STEAMROLLER (Under 8.5)
I like the UNDER 8.5 in Friday's MLB matchup that has the Yankees hosting the White Sox. I just don't see a lot of runs being scored in this one. The ball doesn't figure to be carrying all that great at Yankee Stadium tonight and we got two quality starters going.
Chicago will send out Carlos Rodon, who I think is poised for a big bounce back performance after not having near his best stuff in his last start against the Royals. Rodon gave up 4 runs on 8 hits and 3 walks in 5 2/3 innings, yet he still comes into this game with a 1.47 ERA and 0.873 WHIP in 6 starts.
New York will counter with Jordan Montgomery. While Montgomery has a 4.75 ERA in 8 starts, he has a very strong 1.152 WHIP in those 8 outings. He's also got a strong 3.98 FIP and 3.85 xFIP. His numbers have been more true at home where he has a 3.50 ERA and 0.889 WHIP in 3 starts. Play the UNDER 8.5!
|05-20-21||Marlins v. Phillies UNDER 8||6-0||Win||100||9 h 7 m||Show|
40* (MLB) Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 8)
I like the UNDER 8 in Thursday's NL East showdown between the Marlins and Phillies. I think this total should be 7.5 if not 7. Miami's Sandy Alcantara had a really bad start last time out, but that was on the road against the Dodgers. In his previous 4 starts he hadn't allowed more than 2 runs, throwing 6 or more innings in 3 of those 4 outings. Alcantara also owns a strong 2.82 ERA in 6 career starts against the Phillies.
Vincent Velasquez will get the start for Philadelphia. He's off to a great start to the 2021 season. Velasquez owns a 2.84 ERA and 1.184 WHIP in 5 starts with a 1.59 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in his last 3 outings. I just don't see either offense doing much in this one. Give me the UNDER 8!
|05-19-21||Brewers v. Royals UNDER 7.5||4-6||Loss||-100||10 h 24 m||Show|
40* (MLB) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 7.5)
I like the UNDER 7.5 in Wednesday's Royals/Brewers interleague showdown. KC won the opener 2-0 in an extremely low scoring affair on Tuesday. UNDER is now 6-1 in Royals last 7. Brewers managed just 3 hits in the loss yesterday, second time in their last 3 games they have held to a mere 3 hits. Brewers have also now scored 2 or fewer runs in 7 of their last 11 games.
Milwaukee's struggles on offense are why I'm not worrying too much about the poor numbers for Royals starter Brad Keller. Note that while Keller has a 6.75 ERA in 8 starts, he's coming off two strong outings, as he's allowed just 5 runs with 13 K's in 11 innings over his last 2 starts. Brewers will have Corbin Burnes on the mound, who has been one of the NL's best early on. Burnes has a 1.57 ERA and 0.641 WHIP in 6 starts. Play the UNDER 7.5!
|05-18-21||Wizards v. Celtics UNDER 233||100-118||Win||100||22 h 16 m||Show|
40* (NBA) - Wizards/Celtics Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER (Under 233)
I will gladly take the UNDER 233 in Tuesday's Play-In game between the Wizards and Celtics. I just think the total here is way too high for a game of this magnitude. The intensity for a winner take all game is massive and people forget just how much better the defenses get in the postseason.
We saw that in the Wizards matchup with Charlotte in the regular-season finale, where they winner got to the No. 8 seed. That game had a total of 231 and finished with 225. Both these teams are better defensively than what they showed in the regular-season. Play the UNDER 233!
|05-18-21||Pirates v. Cardinals UNDER 7.5||2-5||Win||100||10 h 5 m||Show|
40* (MLB) - Smart Money VEGAS STEAMROLLER (Under 7.5)
I like the UNDER 7.5 in Tuesday's NL Central showdown between the Pirates and Cardinals. Really underrated starting pitching matchup here with St Louis' John Gant facing off against Pittsburgh's J.T. Brubaker.
Gant has a 1.84 ERA in 7 starts with the UNDER cashing in 6 of those. Brubaker has a 2.58 ERA in 7 starts with 5 of those staying UNDER the mark. I just don't see these two getting to 8 runs tonight. Give me the UNDER 7.5!
|05-14-21||Braves v. Brewers UNDER 8||6-3||Loss||-107||10 h 5 m||Show|
40* (MLB) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 8)
I'll take a shot here with the UNDER 8 in Friday's series opener between the Braves and Brewers. I know this doesn't look like a top tier pitching matchup, but there's reason to be optimistic that both starters perform well here.
Drew Smyly gets the ball for Atlanta. He's got an ugly 6.12 ERA and 1.480 WHIP, but he's coming off by far his best start of the season. Smyly didn't give up a ER in 6 innings at the Nationals. He really took advantage of a bad Washington offense. He gets a similarly poor offense in this one.
Milwaukee is bottom 10 in the league in runs scored They are averaging 2.0 runs/game and hitting .180 as a team in their last 7. They also are scoring just 2.8 runs/game this season vs left-handed starters.
Brewers will send out Adrian Houser, who has a respectable 3.44 ERA and 1.227 WHIP in 7 starts. He too is off a strong outing, as he allowed just 2 ER on 5 hits with 10 Ks in 6 innings at Miami. That's two straight starts he's went 6 innings and allowed only 2 ER. He also could be catching a huge break here with Ronald Acuna Jr questionable after leaving yesterday's game with an ankle injury. GIve me the UNDER 8!
|05-13-21||Indians v. Mariners UNDER 7.5||Top||4-2||Win||100||12 h 53 m||Show|
50* (MLB) - Late Night *MAX UNIT* Top Play (Under 7.5)
I love the UNDER 7.5 in Thursday's late night action on the west coast that has Indians at the Mariners. Neither of these teams are great offensively. Cleveland has scored 3 or fewer in 3 of their last 4 and Seattle has scored 4 or fewer in 3 straight.
You also got a great starting pitching matchup with Indians' Zach Plesac against Mariners' top prospect Logan Gilbert. Plesac has been outstanding of late with a 1.27 ERA and 0.7500 WHIP in his last 3 starts. He hasn't allowed a run in his last two starts. Gilbert is a kid that has elite level stuff and I really like him to pitch well against this Indians lineup. Give me the UNDER 7.5!
|05-12-21||Blue Jays v. Braves OVER 7.5||4-1||Loss||-110||9 h 8 m||Show|
40* (MLB) Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Over 7.5)
I just think there's a ton of value with the OVER at 7.5 in Wednesday's matchup between the Braves and Blue Jays. OVER is 12-5 in Atlanta home games this season with an average combined score of 10.7 runs/game. Toronto is averaging 5.9 runs/game over their last 7 and the Braves are scoring 5.1 runs/game at home and 5.6 runs/game in night games this season.
Hyun-Jin Ryu has a 3.31 ERA in 6 starts, but a 4.15 ERA on the road and a 5.27 ERA in his last 3 outings. Max Fried has a 8.44 ERA and 2.062 WHIP in 4 starts. I could see both teams going over this number. Give me the OVER 7.5!
|05-11-21||Marlins v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8||Top||3-11||Loss||-114||12 h 1 m||Show|
50* (MLB) - NL West TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Under 8)
I love the UNDER 8 in Tuesday's NL showdown between Miami and Arizona. Two of the hottest starters in the game will be facing off in this one. Marlins' Pablo Lopez has a 2.04 ERA in 7 starts and a 0.50 ERA and 0.889 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Diamondbacks' Madison Bumgarner had a bit of a rough start to 2021, but has a 1.00 ERA and 0.389 WHIP in his last 3 starts.
These two starters squared off against each other in Miami last week (5/6) and the game finished with just 4 runs, as the two starters combined to pitch 11 innings, giving up just 1 ER on 5 hits. UNDER is also a strong 13-3 in Marlins last 16 road games after 2 straight games scoring 2 or fewer runs. Give me the UNDER 8!
|05-11-21||A's v. Red Sox UNDER 8.5||3-2||Win||100||9 h 25 m||Show|
40* (MLB) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 8.5)
I really like the UNDER 8.5 in Tuesday's AL matchup between Boston and Oakland. That's because I love the starting pitching matchup with the Red Sox sending out Nathan Eovaldi and the A's countering with Chris Bassitt.
Eovaldi has a not so great 4.39 ERA with a solid 1.205 WHIP in 7 starts, but has really been unlucky with a .342 BABIP. That shows in his amazing 2.05 FIP and strong 3.26 xFIP. Bassitt has a 3.70 ERA and 1.210 WHIP in 7 starts with a 2.84 ERA in his last 3 outings.
I know the wind is going to be blowing out slightly to right, but it's as big a concern with these two guys on the mound. Eovaldi has not allowed a HR this season and Bassitt has allowed just 3. Give me the UNDER 8.5!
|05-09-21||Wolves v. Magic OVER 228.5||128-96||Loss||-112||10 h 1 m||Show|
40* (NBA) - Over/Under Total NO BRAINER (Over 228.5)
I think we are getting some exceptional value here with the OVER 228.5 in Sunday's game between the Magic and Timberwolves. A lot of people will just stay clear of this game as both of these teams are out of the playoff picture.
That's where I feel the value lies. There's zero incentive for either of these teams to play defense. That's definitely how Minnesota likes it, as the Timberwolves are scoring 124.6 ppg and giving up 124.2 ppg in their last 5. Magic should be able to keep pace and I could see this thing flying past the total and into the 240s. Give me the OVER 228.5!
|05-09-21||White Sox v. Royals UNDER 7.5||9-3||Loss||-114||5 h 46 m||Show|
40* (MLB) - Situational Total ANNIHILATOR (Under 7.5)
I will gladly take my chances here with the UNDER 7.5 in Sunday's AL Central showdown between the Royals and White Sox. There just doesn't figure to be a lot of scoring opportunities in this game.
Chicago will have ace Lucas Giolito on the mound. He's not been as dominant as expected early on, but has definitely pitched better than his numbers. The only thing that's killing him is the long ball. Something he doesn't figure to have to worry about much today with the wind blowing in from left field at close to 15 mph and temps expected to be in the mid 40's.
Those conditions will also make life easier on KC starter Mike Minor. While Minor's numbers are also not great so far, he's owned Chicago with a 3.18 ERA in 3 starts. Give me the UNDER 7.5!
|05-09-21||Heat v. Celtics UNDER 221.5||130-124||Loss||-110||4 h 2 m||Show|
40* (NBA) - Early Bird VEGAS STEAMROLLER (Under 221.5)
I think there's some decent value with the UNDER 221.5 in Sunday's early matchup between the Celtics and Heat. This is the first of two straight games these two teams will play, as they will square off in Miami again on Tuesday.
These two games could very well decide which of these two teams finish as the No. 6 seed and get next week off and which finishes No. 7 and is forced to earn a spot in the postseason in the play-in tournament.
I just think with how much these games mean, it's going to have a playoff-like feel to it. Look for both teams to turn up the defensive intensity and for this to stay well below the mark set by the books. Give me the UNDER 221.5!
|05-06-21||Wizards v. Raptors OVER 235||131-129||Win||100||10 h 46 m||Show|
40* (NBA) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Over 235)
I will gladly take my chances with the OVER 235 in Thursday's NBA matchup between the Raptors and Wizards. OVER has cashed in 3 straight and 6 of 8 overall for Washington. Easy to see why when you look at how good this team is playing offensively and how much they struggle defensively. Washington has shot at least 47% from the field in 13 of their last 14, including each of the last 8 games. They have allowed 125, 141 and 135 in their last 3 games.
Raptors are a team that relies more on their offense to win games than their defense. Toronto has allowed each of their last 5 opponents to shoot 47% or better from the field. There's just going to be no defense played in this game. Give me the OVER 235!
|05-04-21||Mavs v. Heat UNDER 215.5||Top||127-113||Loss||-109||11 h 49 m||Show|
50* (NBA) - Tuesday *MAX UNIT* Top Play (Under 215.5)
I really like the UNDER 215.5 in tonight's NBA matchup between the Heat and Mavs. These two teams are in similar spots down the stretch, as both are fighting to avoid the play-in tournament. Right now both are safe, but not by much.
Mavs sit 6th, just 0.5-games ahead of 7th place Portland. Miami is 6th in the east, but are just 1-game up on 7th place Boston. Every win is huge for these two teams and I think with both teams having Monday off, we are going to get a big defensive effort.
Both teams also figure to be without two of their top offensive playmakers, as the Mavs aren't expected to have Kristaps Porzingis and the Heat are going to be without Tyler Herro. Note Miami is also still without Oladipo and may not have the services of Iguodala. Give me the UNDER 215.5!
|05-04-21||White Sox v. Reds OVER 9||9-0||Push||0||10 h 53 m||Show|
40* (MLB) Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Over 9)
I will gladly take my chances with the OVER 9 in Tuesday's MLB matchup between the White Sox and Reds. The OVER is a pretty easy play when Cincinnati is at home. OVER is 12-3 in Reds' home games this season with an average combined score of 13.4 runs/game.
I know the two starters going, Dylan Cease and Jeff Hoffman have been decent early on, but both of these teams are scoring a lot of runs when these two are on the mound. OVER has cashed in 4 of Cease's 5 starts and is a perfect 5-0 in Hoffman's 5 starts. Neither of these teams have a good bullpen, so if either starter struggles we could see one of these teams eclipse the mark on their own. Give me the OVER 9!
|04-30-21||Jazz v. Suns UNDER 219||Top||100-121||Loss||-112||12 h 58 m||Show|
50* (NBA) - Friday *MAX UNIT* Top Play (Under 219)
I absolutely love the UNDER 219 in Friday's huge Western Conference showdown between the Suns and Jazz. The winner of this game will be in the drivers seat for the No. 1 seed in the west, as Utah comes into this matchup just 1-game up on the Suns with both teams having just 9 left on the schedule after this contest. Phoenix has the tiebreaker, so if the two finished tied they get the top spot.
I think the defensive intensity is going to be very high on both sides. You also got Utah playing this game without Donovan Mitchell or Mike Conley. So while these two did combine for 230 in their last meeting, that was with Mitchell carrying the Jazz with 41 points. Conley was also in double-figures with 11. Give me the UNDER 219!
|04-30-21||Royals v. Twins UNDER 8||1-9||Loss||-105||10 h 52 m||Show|
40* (MLB) - Over/Under Total NO BRAINER (Under 8)
I will take my chances with the UNDER 8 in Friday's series opener between AL Central rivals Kansas City and Minnesota. Two really good starters will be on the mound for this one. Kansas City will send out Brady Singer and the Twins counter with Michael Pineda.
Singer has a 2.95 ERA and 1.078 WHIP in 4 starts. He's really been exceptional since giving up 5 runs in 3 1/3 in his first outing of the season. In his 3 starts since, he's posted a 1.00 ERA and 0.833 WHIP with 20 K's in 18 innings of work.
Pineda has been equally impressive early on. He's got a 2.42 ERA and 0.896 WHIP in 4 starts. He too has had just one bad outing this year. Give me the UNDER 8!
|04-29-21||A's v. Rays UNDER 8||3-2||Win||100||3 h 18 m||Show|
40* (MLB) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 8)
I will take the UNDER 8 in Thursday's early MLB matchup that has the A's and Rays finishing up their 4-game series in Tampa. There's been little to no offense in the first 3 games of this series. In fact, the two teams have combined to score a mere 12 runs in the series.
I just don't think the total should be 8 with the way these two are swinging the bat. Big reason why there's value here is the Rays are sending out a relatively unknown starter in Shane McClanahan. His only MLB action came in the playoffs last year. While he didn't pitch great in the postseason, this is not only one of Tampa Bay's best prospects, it's one of the top pitching prospects in the game. He's got big time swing and miss stuff.
On the flip side, the A's will be sending out Chris Bassitt, who has a strong 3.18 ERA in his last 3 starts. Bassitt has allowed just 2 runs in 6 innings with 8 K's in each of his last two starts. Give me the UNDER 8!
|04-28-21||Clippers v. Suns UNDER 222.5||101-109||Win||100||11 h 4 m||Show|
40* (NBA) - Late Night Total ANNIHILATOR (Under 222.5)
I will take my chances with the UNDER 222.5 in tonight's late game between the Suns and Clippers. This game could very well decide home court if these two were to meet in the second round, as Phoenix is in the No. 2 spot, 1-game up on the Clippers.
I think because of what is at stake, we get a strong effort defensively from two teams that can really excel on that side of the ball. Clippers are also going to be without one of their top scorers in Leonard and the Suns are in a big flat spot off that grueling 5-game road trip that had them playing the Bucks, 76ers, Celtics, Nets and Knicks. Give me the UNDER 222.5!
|04-28-21||Pelicans v. Nuggets OVER 228.5||112-114||Loss||-113||10 h 4 m||Show|
40* (NBA) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Over 228.5)
I like the OVER 228.5 in Wednesday's game between the Nuggets and Pelicans. These are two of the better offensive teams in the league with New Orleans averaging 115.0 ppg and Denver at 115.5 ppg.
Pelicans had a rough stretch recently with a lot of guys out, but they are back to full strength and have shot extremely well over their last 4 games. They hit 56% against the Nets, 56% against the Magic, 47% against the Spurs and 54% against the Clippers. Nuggets are also giving up 114.4 ppg in their last 5. Pelicans defense can't be trusted, especially on the road. NO gives up 116.0 ppg on the road and Nuggets average 117.1 ppg at home. Give me the OVER 228.5!
|04-26-21||Suns v. Knicks UNDER 215||118-110||Loss||-110||10 h 6 m||Show|
40* (NBA) - Suns/Knicks NBATV Vegas STEAMROLLER (Under 215)
We didn't get there with the UNDER in Sunday's Suns/Nets game, but it's not going to keep me from playing the UNDER here. Phoenix is playing on no rest and will be finishing up an absolutely brutal 5-game road trip that has seen them play the Bucks, 76ers, Celtics and Nets away from home over the last week.
Knicks are a team built on energy and defense and couldn't come into this game with more momentum on their side. There's a buzz in New York about this team and for good reason, as they have won 9 straight games. This is another chance to prove to themselves they are for real against one of the hottest teams in the league. Give me the UNDER 215!
|04-26-21||Spurs v. Wizards UNDER 228.5||146-143||Loss||-109||10 h 48 m||Show|
40* (NBA) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 228.5)
I will take the UNDER 228.5 in Monday's matchup between the Spurs and Wizards. Bradley Beal is listed as probable after suffering a leg injury late in yesterday's win over the Cavs. While it would be better if Beal wasn't playing, I definitely think he could struggle playing here at less than 100%. It's also going to be tough for Washington here to play with a ton of pace in the second of a back-to-back.
I know the let the Cavs shoot 51.3% yesterday, but the Wizards defense has really been playing better of late. Prior to that game Washington had held 5 straight opponents to 44% or worse from the field. Spurs just shot 43.5% in their last game and have shot under 44% in 3 of their last 4 now. UNDER has cashed in 6 straight games for the Spurs. Play the UNDER 228.5!
|04-25-21||Suns v. Nets UNDER 232||119-128||Loss||-110||6 h 57 m||Show|
40* (NBA) Smart Money VEGAS STEAMROLLER (Under 232)
I think we are going to see a lower scoring game than what most expect in Sunday's huge matchup between the Suns and Nets. These two teams know there's a chance they meet up in the Finals. Brooklyn is arguably the team to beat if they get their Big 3 all healthy. Phoenix is quietly sitting out west 1.5-games back of No. 1 Utah. They just haven't got the love the deserves, as it feels like they are still viewed as the 4th or 5th best team in the west. Most see it Lakers/Clippers and then the Jazz before even thinking Phoenix.
With the Nets expected to have 2 of their 3 with Durant and Irving, I think the Suns are going to treat this like it's a "test" to see where they really stand in the NBA hierarchy. I think with Phoenix playing their 4th straight on a grueling road trip that has already been to Milwaukee, Philly and Boston over the last week.
Nets can light it up, but they have also shown they can turn it up defensively when they want to. I think they will match the Suns intensity in this one and this finds a way to stay UNDER 232!
|04-22-21||Angels v. Astros UNDER 9||Top||2-8||Loss||-101||25 h 17 m||Show|
50* (MLB) - AL West TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Under 9)
I love the UNDER 9 in Thursday's AL West showdown between the Astros and Angels. I just don't see either offense going off with the two starters that will be taking the mound in this one. Los Angeles is sending out Alex Cobb, while Houston counters with Cristian Javier.
Cobb comes in with a not so great 4.63 ERA in 2 starts, but the advanced stats say that's a big fluke, as he owns a 2.04 FIP and exceptional 1.67 xFIP. His 17 strikeouts in 11 2/3 innings really speaks to how well he's thrown the ball.
Javier hasn't had as many swing and misses, but does have a very respectable 11 K's in 8 2/3 innings. Javier owns a 2.08 ERA and 0.923 WHIP. With a 1.57 FIP, there's every reason to believe he's been as good as the numbers are showing. Give me the UNDER 9!
|04-21-21||Suns v. 76ers UNDER 221||116-113||Loss||-105||10 h 42 m||Show|
40* (NBA) Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 221)
I will take a shot with the UNDER 221 in Wednesday's big non-conference clash between the Suns and 76ers. Phoenix doesn't get near the respect they deserve in the Western Conference. This has arguably been the best team for over a month now. Suns are 15-3 in their last 18 games. They just won at Milwaukee on Monday.
While the game against the Bucks saw 255 combined points, both teams shot lights out. This here will be a matchup of two teams that both rank in the Top 5 in defensive efficiency. 76ers should be motivated off a rare home loss and could be without two of their top scores here with Harris and Simmons questionable. Not having Simmons would also slow down the pace even more for Philly. I also think Suns will be fine playing slower in the second road game in 3 days, especially knowing they got to play at Boston tomorrow. Give me the UNDER 221!
|04-21-21||Braves v. Yankees OVER 8.5||4-1||Loss||-111||9 h 43 m||Show|
40* (MLB) - Situational VEGAS STEAMROLLER (Over 8.5)
I will take a shot with the OVER 8.5 in Wednesday's interleague showdown between the Braves and Yankees. The two starters going, Ian Anderson and Corey Kluber are both well respected starters, but both are struggling. Anderson has a 4.70 ERA and 1.435 WHIP in 3 starts. Kluber is even worse with a 6.10 ERA and 2.227 WHIP in 3 starts.
While the two two teams did manage to combine to score 4 runs in Tuesday's series opener, I think we could see a big number on the board for both teams today. That's because there will be a 17+ mph jet stream blowing streak out to right field. Should be multiple HRs hit in this game. Give me the OVER 8.5!
|04-20-21||Wolves v. Kings OVER 237.5||Top||134-120||Win||100||13 h 47 m||Show|
50* (NBA) - Western Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Over 237.5)
I love the OVER 237.5 in Tuesday's game between the Timberwolves and Kings. I just don't see any defense being played between these two Western Conference bottom feeders. Neither plays much defense as it is. Both certainly haven't been playing much of late, as Minnesota is giving up 121.8 ppg on 50% shooting in their last 5, while Sacramento has allowed 119.4 ppg on 51% shooting in their last 5.
Key here is that both of these teams can score. I don't think it will take much for both of these teams to reach 120 points. Also, I think the fact that these two are scheduled to turn around and play each other again in Sacramento tomorrow night, gives that much more incentive to not try defensively in this first meeting. Give me the OVER 237.5!
|04-20-21||Rays v. Royals UNDER 8||14-7||Loss||-115||10 h 28 m||Show|
40* (MLB) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 8)
We cashed the UNDER 7.5 in Game 1 of this series on Monday and I see more of the same value with the UNDER 8 in Game 2. I know the numbers aren't great for today's two starters Rich Hill and Brad Keller, but it's just a matter of time before Hill gets on track and Keller is coming off a great start at home against the Angels, where he allowed just 1 run on 4 hits in 5 2/3 innings.
The even bigger factor here is the weather. While we won't have 15 mph winds blowing straight in from left like we did yesterday, it won't be blowing out tonight and the temps are expected to start in the high 40s and end in the low 40s. It's just far from ideal conditions for scoring runs. Give me the UNDER 8!
|04-19-21||Rays v. Royals UNDER 7.5||4-1||Win||100||11 h 47 m||Show|
40* (MLB) - Smart Money VEGAS INSIDER (Under 7.5)
I will roll the dice with the UNDER 7.5 in Monday's game between the Rays and Royals. Tampa Bay will send out Josh Fleming for his second start and he was impressive in his first outing, giving up just 1 run on 4 hits in 5 innings. Keep in mind Fleming pitched extremely well for the Rays in limited action last year.
Danny Duffy will take the mound for the Royals and he's been outstanding to start 2021. Duffy has allowed just 1 run in 12 innings over his first 2 starts. Duffy has also owned Tampa Bay, posting a 2.68 ERA and 1.108 WHIP in 6 career starts against the Rays.
Lastly, the conditions aren't expected to be ideal for scoring. Temp's are expected to be in the low 50s high 40s with close to a 15 mph wind blowing straight in from left field. Give me the UNDER 7.5!
|04-19-21||Warriors v. 76ers UNDER 225.5||107-96||Win||100||11 h 48 m||Show|
40* (NBA) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 225.5)
I really like the UNDER at 225.5 in Monday's big NBA matchup between the Warriors and 76ers. The spread for this game looked way off with the 76ers sitting as a 9-point favorite, but now that we see Steph Curry listed as questionable it makes more sense. The line tells me that Curry isn't likely to play.
Even if he does, I think the 76ers will come to play, as Curry and Embiid are two of the top choices right now for MVP. I also think the scoring in this game could be hindered by the fact that Philadelphia has two key guys listed as questionable with Seth Curry and Tobias Harris. Those are two big losses, as both are shooting over 40% from 3.
Neither Curry played in the first meeting between these two and that game ended with a mere 206 points. Give me the UNDER 225.5!
|04-16-21||Nuggets v. Rockets OVER 223.5||128-99||Win||100||11 h 44 m||Show|
40* (NBA) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Over 223.5)
Give me the OVER 223.5 in Friday's game between the Rockets and Nuggets. I just feel like this total should be closer to 230 with the way Houston is defending. Houston has allowed at least 125 in each of their last 4 and 118 or more in 9 of their last 10. If the Rockets can simply put up 110 in this one at home, this thing should fly past the total. Give me the OVER 223.5!
|04-15-21||Celtics v. Lakers UNDER 212||121-113||Loss||-104||13 h 32 m||Show|
40* (NBA) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 212)
I'll take my chances her with the UNDER 212 in Thursday's TNT late night matchup between the Celtics and Lakers. It doesn't matter who is available to play, when these two franchises face off, they are going to treat it a little differently. Add in the fact that it's on TNT and I think we get a really strong defensive effort from two really good defensive teams.
UNDER has also been a really strong play for both of these teams of late. UNDER has cashed in 8 of the last 10 for Boston and 10 of the last 15 for LA. UNDER is also 9-1 in Boston's last 10 as a favorite and 6-0 in the Lakers last 6 at home. Give me the UNDER 212!
|04-15-21||Diamondbacks v. Nationals UNDER 8.5||Top||11-6||Loss||-112||9 h 20 m||Show|
50* (MLB) Thursday *MAX UNIT* Top Play (Under 8.5)
I love the UNDER 8.5 in Thursday's matchup between the Nationals and Diamondbacks. I know Arizona's Merrill Kelly has a 8.10 ERA and 1.700 WHIP in his first 2 starts, but his two starts have come on the road against the Padres and Rockies. It should be much easier here against a sub-par Nationals offense that has already been shutout 3 times in the early going.
Same can be said for Washington starter Pat Corbin, who had a rough first start at the Dodgers. He really just had one bad inning, giving up 5 of his 6 runs in the 2nd inning. He should be much better and the Dbacks are only scoring 3.6 runs/game and hitting .209 as a team on the road this season.
The last big factor here is the weather. Temps are expected to only be in the mid 50s with close to a 15 mph wind blowing straight in from left field. Give me the UNDER 8.5!
|04-12-21||Bulls v. Grizzlies OVER 229||90-101||Loss||-110||12 h 45 m||Show|
40* (NBA) - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER (OVER 229)
I will take my chances with the OVER 229 in Monday's game between the Bulls and Grizzlies. Both of these teams have been strong OVER plays of late. OVER has cashed in each of Chicago's last 3 games and the last 4 for the Grizzlies.
The Bulls have been a team that played in a decent amount of high scoring games, but I feel they are even more offensive-minded after the moves they made at the trade deadline. They gave up defense for offense by getting Vucevic and it also strengthened their bench. They got a lot more fire-power on the bench than they had early in the year.
Memphis has scored 110 or more points in 12 of their last 13 games. Even the game where they didn't that contest still had 218 points scored. With Bulls on no rest and playing their 5th and final game of their road trip, I don't see them playing a whole lot of defense in this one. Give me the OVER 229!
|04-12-21||Indians v. White Sox UNDER 8.5||Top||3-4||Win||100||11 h 40 m||Show|
50* (MLB) - Monday *MAX UNIT* Top Play (Under 8.5)
I love the UNDER 8.5 in Monday's AL Central clash between the Indians and White Sox. Cleveland is the definition of an UNDER team. They struggle to score runs, but don't necessarily need to with their rotation and bullpen. UNDER has cashed in 6 of their 8 games this season.
Triston McKenzie will be taking the mound for Cleveland and while he is making his first start, he pitched 3 2/3 innings out of the pen and was really good. He only gave up 1 run on 2 hits. In his brief career start last year, McKenzie has a 3.16 ERA and 0.97 WHIP with opponents hitting just .180 against him.
White Sox will counter with Carlos Rodon, who tossed 5 scoreless innings with 9 K's in his first start at Seattle. Rodon has kind of had his way with Cleveland, posting a 2.83 ERA and 1.122 WHIP in 15 starts. Give me the UNDER 8.5!
|04-11-21||Pacers v. Grizzlies OVER 231.5||132-125||Win||100||10 h 23 m||Show|
40* (NBA) - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER (Over 231.5)
I like the value here with the OVER 231.5 in Sunday's NBA matchup that has the Pacers visiting the Grizzlies. The OVER has cashed in 3 straight for Memphis and this Grizzlies offense has been on an absolute tear for a few weeks now. Memphis has scored 116 or more in 5 straight and 110 or more in 11 of 12.
They should be able to put up a big number here against a Pacers team that is without their best interior defender in Myles Turner. It's just not the same defense without one of the league's best shot blockers on the floor. Key here is the Pacers should be able to keep pace offensively with Memphis. This is a game I think we could see both teams eclipse 120 points. Give me the OVER 231.5!
|04-11-21||Rockies v. Giants UNDER 8||0-4||Win||100||6 h 24 m||Show|
40* (MLB) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 8)
Colorado's offense has really struggled in their first two games away from Coors Field, as they have managed just 4 runs in their two games at San Francisco. I don't see them getting the offense going against Giants starter Anthony Desclafani, who was sharp in his first start at San Diego, limiting the Padres to just 1 run in 5 innings.
Rockies will counter with German Marquez. He's got a 3.60 ERA in two starts, both at home against the Dodgers and Dbacks. He should have no problem shutting down one of baseball's worst offenses. In his two starts against the Giants last year, he allowed just 3 run with 12/2 K/BB ratio in 13 1/3 innings. Give me the UNDER 8!
|04-09-21||76ers v. Pelicans OVER 227||94-101||Loss||-113||11 h 13 m||Show|
40* (NBA) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Over 227)
The OVER 227 is definitely a play for me tonight in the Pelicans/76ers matchup. New Orleans has been one of the worst defensive teams all season and are really playing poorly on that side of the ball right now. Pelicans are giving up 123.6 ppg on 50% shooting over their last 5 games with all 5 opponents scoring at least 115 points.
With the 76ers playing at close to full strength and coming in fresh off 2 days of rest, I would be shocked if they don't put up at least 120 in this game. If they do that, this should fly past the mark, as the Pelicans are averaging 116.7 ppg at home. I also don't think Philadelphia will be laying it all on the line defensively like they did in their last game at Boston. Give me the OVER 227!
|04-07-21||Jazz v. Suns UNDER 225.5||113-117||Loss||-110||13 h 49 m||Show|
40* (NBA) - Late Night Total NO-BRAINER (Under 225.5)
I will gladly take my chances with the UNDER 225.5 in tonight's big Western Conference showdown between the Suns and Jazz. These two own the two best records in the NBA, as Utah is 38-12 and the Suns are 35-14.
Both are playing extremely well coming in as both have gone 9-1 SU over their last 10 games. I just think the intensity level is going to be turned up a notch in this game and we are going to see both teams come out looking to defend at a high level.
That's what they do, as Utah is 3rd in the league in defensive efficiency and the Suns are 6th. Also adding to this, both teams like to slow it down and play a little more in the halfcourt. They also played once earlier this season back on Dec. 31 and the two combined for a mere 201 points with a total of 219. Give me the UNDER 225.5!