50* NBA NON-CONF TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Over 226) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the OVER 226 in Friday's NBA clash that has Boston visiting Minnesota. I think we are getting some value here with the OVER due to a couple big names sitting this out. Kemba Walker won't play for Boston and Karl-Anthony Towns is out for the Wolves. 

Celtics got more than enough offensive fire-power to score a bunch against this awful Minnesota defense. It's going to be a big struggle on that side of the ball for the Wolves with all the new pieces. 

I like the offensive weapons a little more after the moves. Not having Towns is huge, but I also think him not playing really makes it hard for Boston to show up thinking they need to play hard defensively to win this game. Give me the OVER 226! 

50* NCAAB VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 128.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 128.5 between Baylor and Texas. These two teams already played once this season at Baylor and the Bears won that contest 59-44 for a combined total of just 103 points. I just don't think it's going to be a whole lot different in the rematch. 

Note that Baylor has played two Big 12 teams twice so far this season and both times the second meeting was almost a mirror image of the first. Bears beat Iowa State 68-55 at home and then later won at ISU 67-53. They also beat Oklahoma State 75-68 on the road and then won 78-70 at home. 

I just don't know how Texas is going to be able to score, especially if Kai Jones and Jase Febres (both questionable) can't go. Keep in mind Baylor plays at the slowest tempo in the Big 12 and the Longhorns are 7th out of 10 in tempo. Give me the UNDER 128.5! 

50* NCAAB C-USA TOTAL OF THE YEAR (Over 133) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the OVER 133 in tonight's C-USA matchup that has North Texas visiting Middle Tennessee. The Mean Green are the most efficient offense in C-USA with offensive efficiency rating of 115.0. The next best is Louisiana Tech at 108.8. They are shooting 56% on 2-pointers, 42% from deep and 79% from the free throw line. They have scored 70 or more in 6 of their last 8 and should easily hit that mark against the Blue Raiders, who have allowed 80 or more in 4 of their last 6. 

As for Middle Tennessee's offense, they play at the 5th fastest tempo in the conference and are a much better 3-point shooting team than they are inside. Defending the 3-ball has been a struggle for North Texas, as they are 13th out of 14 in 3-pt % defense. Middle Tennessee is also 4th in free throw rate and Mean Green are 10th in defensive free throw rate. They just scored 83 at UTSA and are averaging 75.3 ppg at home. I could see both teams eclipsing 70 and all we need is for 67 each to cash a winner. Give me the OVER 133! 

50* NCAAB PAC-12 TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Under 137) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the UNDER 137 in Saturday's Pac-12 showdown between Stanford and USC. Stanford, Washington and USC are in a class all of their own in terms of defensive prowess in the Pac-12. The gap between them and the next best team is very noticable. 

Cardinal are No. 1 in defensive efficiency and No. 3 in effective field goal defense. USC is No. 3 in defensive efficiency and No.1 in effective field goal defense. This total is basically for both teams to score 70 and I have a hard time seeing either side get to 65.

UNDER is 30-15 in USC's last 45 conference games and 10-2 in their last 12 at home as a favorite of 6 or less. Give me the UNDER 137! 

50* NCAAB A-10 TOTAL PLAY OF THE MONTH (Over 136) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the OVER 136 as Davidson will host Richmond. The Spiders have really picked up the pace this season compared to last year and while it's early they are playing with the 3rd fastest tempo in the A-10. Davidson might not always play fast, but they are capable of speeding things up as they got the No. 4 ranked offense in the conference. 

Another big thing is that both of these teams can light you up from long distance. Both teams are shooting better than 35% from deep and rank among the tops in the country in percentage of shots from deep. Davidson's 3 conference games have seen an average score of 144.6 and the Wildcats are averaging 88.7 ppg at home. Give me the OVER 136! 

50* CLEMSON/LSU CHAMP GAME PLAY OF THE YEAR (UNDER 68.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the UNDER 68.5. I was all over the UNDER in the Clemson/Ohio State semifinal matchup and I see this as a very similar matchup, yet we are getting almost a touchdown more to work with as that total was 62. 

I think the 16 days off between games is a big advantage for the defenses, especially when you factor in the two outstanding defensive coordinators that these two teams have. Not to mention the talent on the defensive side for both sides. 

Another thing that I think gets overlooked is the pressure of this game and how the nerves can play into the outcome. I think both teams will be cautious to make a mistake early and they really can't afford any letdowns to eclipse a total like this, as they have average more than 17 points a quarter to eclipse this mark. Give me the UNDER 68.5! 

50* NCAAB AAC TOTAL OF THE YEAR (Over 140.5)

I'll gladly take my chances here with the OVER 140.5 in tonight's big matchup between Memphis and Wichita State. I just don't think the number here is anywhere close to high enough with the fire-power these two teams have on offense and the likely pace of play we are going to see. 

Memphis comes in playing at the 9th fastest tempo in the country. Tigers on average shoot the ball in 14.9 seconds, which is the 7th fastest mark. While Wichita State's defense has been great, opponents shots have gone up in 16.4 seconds which is 38th fastest. 

Also the Shockers defensive numbers have been greatly skewed by who they have played. Memphis is 68th in offensive efficiency. It will be the first team Wichita State will have faced that ranks in the Top 125 (9 of their 14 opponents have ranked outside the Top 200). 

Memphis also has great defensive numbers, but in their two games against good really good offensive teams they gave up 82 to Oregon and 78 to NC State. I think both teams hit 70 points no problem. Give me the OVER 140.5! 

50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (UNDER 220) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the UNDER 220 in tonight's matchup that has Toronto hosting Portland. I just think the number here is way too high given the circumstances for both teams. For Toronto they just can't catch a break. Already down Siakam, Powell and Gasol, they are now going to be missing VanVleet. That's a big loss, as he's a big scorer for them right now and also a guy that gets people easy shots. 

Raptors have also slowed the pace way down with all these injuries. Since losing all those guys in that game at Detroit back on 12/18 their pace of play rating is a mere 24th and figures to drop even more without VanVleet. 

Blazers have been in a lot of high-scoring games of late, but this will be their 4th straight game on the road in a span of just 7 days, as they have had to go from New York, to Washington, to Miami to Toronto. They too are decimated with injuries and I think they will be happy slowing things down and playing at Toronto's new slow pace. Give me the UNDER 220! 

50* VIKINGS/SAINTS NFL SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 50.5)

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 50.5 in the big NFC Wild Card matchup between the Saints and Vikings. I get the Saints come into this game on an offensive tear, as they scored 34 or more in each of their last 4 games, but I just don't see them matching that success against a really good Vikings defense. At the same time, I don't think Minnesota's offense is going to have much success here and I actually think they are going to focus a lot more on running the ball to not only keep their defense fresh, but to keep Drew Brees off the field. Give me the UNDER 50.5! 

50* NFL PATS/TITANS VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 44.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the UNDER 44.5 between the Titans and Patriots. I'm not anticipating this one being all that entertaining, as I think both offenses are going to have a miserable time moving the ball. Pats offense is broken and the Titans offense isn't good enough to exploit an elite NE defense on the road. I wouldn't be shocked if both teams failed to reach 20 points in this one. UNDER is 16-5 in Pats last 21 games off a loss. Give me the UNDER 44.5! 

50* NCAAB VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 138) 

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 138 between Temple and Tulsa. The Golden Hurricane are 289th in pace of play and should be able to dictate the tempo at home, especially with the Owls figuring to be a bit flat footed playing their second road game in a 4-day stretch. 

Both of these teams are also really strong on the defensive end. Temple is only giving up 61.9 ppg and just held UCF to a mere 58 points on the road in their last game. Tulsa is only giving up 65.4 ppg and holding teams to 39.5% shooting at home. Owls are a miserable 38.8% from the field in road games this season. Give me the UNDER 138! 

50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 223.5)

I'll gladly take my chances here with the OVER 223.5 between the Celtics and Hawks. Atlanta will be getting back their best offensive player in Trae Young and their offensive net rating is 13.9 points higher with him on the floor compared to when he's not. Not to mention he also makes their defense worse. Atlanta just can't defend the pick and roll and Celtics are one of the best in the league at pick and roll offense. 

Other big key here is that because Boston is so much better than Atlanta, this is not a game where they are going to feel the need to lockdown defensively. The proof of that is in recent matchups. OVER has gone 6-2 in the last 8 meetings between these two teams including 4-0 in the last 4 games in Boston. Give me the OVER 223.5! 

50* CFB PLAYOFFS SEMIFINAL PLAY OF THE YEAR (Under 64)

I'll gladly take my chances here with the UNDER 64. Not to take anything away from these two offenses, I think the great offensive numbers for both teams are a result of the bad teams they faced in their conferences. You look at Clemson only scoring 24 against Texas A&M at home and Ohio State not producing at near the same level against the top teams in the Big 10. I just think both teams will have a much harder time moving the ball than the number suggests. 

50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (OVER 226.5)

I'll gladly take my chances here with the OVER 226.5 in tonight's game that has the Mavericks hosting the Spurs. Dallas should have Doncic back in the lineup and with him they should do whatever they please against a bad Spurs defense that is giving up 116.2 ppg. In fact, both teams could go off here. San Antonio is averaging 120.0 ppg in their last 5 and the Mavs are scoring 117.2 ppg on the season. Both have also brought the offense in division games. Spurs are averaging 121.2 ppg against division opponents and the Mavs are even better at 127.2 ppg. Give me the OVER 226.5! 

50* NBA XMAS DAY VEGAS SHARP TOP PLAY (Under 223) 

My money is on the UNDER 223 in the huge Christmas Day matchup between the Lakers and Clippers. These two teams are so good that their numbers can sometimes be misleading, especially on the defensive end. Because they have so much offensive talent they don't have to bring it defensively on a nightly basis. There's no concern here with them showing up on that side of the ball in this one. These two have played once already and only combined for 114 points and that was with the Clippers shooting 51% from the field and the two combining for 24 made 3-pointers. I just think a slower pace and a little more defensive intensity are going to keep this thing well below the mark. Give me the UNDER 223! 

50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 218.5) 

I'll once again take my chances here with the OVER in a game involving the Grizzlies. We should have cashed the OVER last night with Memphis and Cleveland, but the Grizzlies were a no show in the 4th quarter and Ja Morant was off with just 8 points. I fully expect Morant to bounce back and for this thing to fly past the total. OVER is still 4-1 in the Grizzlies last 5 and each of their last 6 have seen at last 220 points. OVER is also 2-0 since Fox returned for Memphis. Give me the OVER 218.5! 

50* VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (OVER 223)

I'll gladly take my chances here with the OVER 223 between the Grizzlies and Cavs. Memphis' is rolling offensively right now and pushing the pace while they are at it. Grizzlies have scored 110 or more points in 7 straight games. They have also allowed 111 or more in each of their last 4 and are giving up 115.4 ppg on the road. OVER has cashed in each of their last 4 games. 

Cavs aren't the best offensive team, but are scoring 109.6 ppg in their last 5 and should be able to score plenty here at home against a soft Memphis defense. Prior to their last game against Charlotte where the two combined for just 198 points, Cleveland had played 4 straight games with a combined score of 126 or more. Give me the OVER 223! 

50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 218.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the OVER 218.5 in tonight's NBA matchup that has the Grizzlies visiting the Thunder. This is not your Grizzlies from the last decade. Memphis is pushing the pace behind rookie point guard Ja Morant, who has really been playing well. Grizzlies have posted two of their best offensive ratings in their last two games. Memphis loves to get out in transition and that's one area OKC is struggling. Thunder 30th in PPP allowed in transition. On the flip side the Grizzlies are not a good defensive team. They are giving up 114.5 ppg on the road nad while OKC's offense isn't great, they are averaging 112.7 ppg at home. Give me the OVER 218.5! 

50* NCAAB NON-CONF TOTAL OF THE MONTH (OVER 153) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the OVER 153 between Oklahoma and Creighton. These two teams can both light up the scoreboard. Creighton comes in averaging 78.5 ppg on 48% shooting and those numbers jump up to 83 ppg and 50% from the field at home. The offense figures to get even strong as mid-year transfer Denzel Mahoney is expected to make his debut tonight. Mahoney average 19 ppg and shot 43% from 3 last year with SE Missouri State. 

Oklahoma is scoring 76.3 ppg and only once all season have they failed to hit the 70-point mark. They should have no problem hitting that mark against a soft Creighton defense that has given up 75+ in each of their 3 games so far against a Power 5 opponent. 

OVER is 4-0 in the Sooners last 4 road games and 7-0 away from home in the month of December over the last 3 seasons. Give me the OVER 153! 

50* COLTS/SAINTS MNF SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (OVER 46.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the OVER 46.5 between the Colts/Saints on Monday Night Football. New Orleans is rolling on the offensive side of the ball. While it was in a losing effort, the Saints put up 46 points and nearly 500 yards of offense against the 49ers last Sunday. They are now averaging 35.0 ppg in their last 4. They will be facing a Colts defense that has allowed 38 to the Bucs and 31 to the Titans in their last 2. Most recently they let Jameis Winston threw for 467 yards against them. 

As for the Colts offense, they should be able to hold their own in this game. New Orleans is not playing at the same level defensively as they did early in the year and they just suffered to massive injuries on that side of the ball, losing both Sheldon Rankins and Marcus Davenport to season-ending injuries. I think we could see these two eclipse this total by the 3rd quarter. Give me the OVER 46.5! 

50* NFL AFC WEST TOTAL OF THE YEAR (Over 46) 

I'll take my chances here with the OVER 46 in Sunday's AFC West matchup between the Broncos and Chiefs. I'm well aware that it's going to be snowing in KC before during and after the game. The betting public sees this and instantly wants to take the UNDER, but in reality the snow actually helps the offenses, as it's much harder to react on defense, as well as generate a pass rush. The biggest thing weather wise that hurts offense is wind and it's not suppose to be that windy. 

I just think this KC offense is ready to explode after being bottled up last week against the Patriots. With that said there's no shame in scoring 23 points on that NE defense, especially on the road and the Chiefs should have had a lot more. 

There's no question the KC defense has improved with each passing week, but it's far from elite and worse defenses have had success against Brady and the Pats here of late. I know they held the Broncos to just 6-points in the first meeting, but that was with Joe Flacco at quarterback. Drew Lock is a big upgrade over Flacco and he's going to generate some big plays. He's also likely to make a couple mistakes, which should lead to some quick scores for Mahomes and the Chiefs offense. Give me the OVER 46! 

50* NBA ATLANTIC DIVISION TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Under 210.5) 

My money is on the UNDER 210.5 in Thursday's big showdown between the Celtics and 76ers. Both of these teams are trying to lay claim as the best team in the east and both are going to bring it. 76ers are not the same offensive team on the road as they are at home, while Boston is likely down one of their top scorers in Hayward. Both teams are also in some tough scheduling spots with not a lot of rest, so the pace should be even slower than it typically would. Give me the UNDER 210.5! 

50* RAVENS/RAMS MNF SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 46.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the Ravens and Rams eclipsing the total set by the books on Monday Night Football. LA has a solid defense, but there's just no slowing down Lamar Jackson and that Ravens offense. His ability to make something out of nothing is unreal and it's really deflating as a defense to do everything right and still give up the big play. Key here is I think the Rams are poised to go score-for-score with Baltimore. Goff is much better at home and will have his full compliment of weapons at his disposal with Cooks back from injury. Baltimore's defense is good but not great and I think they struggle to play well in this one. Give me the OVER 46.5! 

50* NBA CENTRAL DIVISION TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Over 219)

I'll gladly take my chances with the OVER 219, as I think these two could easily get into the 230's. Chicago might be a bad team, but they got some playmakers on offense and love to push the pace. Bulls have played at a 107.6 pace in their last 5 games, which is the best mark in the league over that span. Chicago loves to attack in transition and the Pistons are one of the worst at defending in transition. Bulls also have a bad defense. Chicago is giving up 111.3 ppg and 115 over their last 5. Detroit is averaging 111.2 ppg over their last 5 and giving up 112 ppg. Give me the OVER 219! 

50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (OVER 41) 

I'll take my chances with the OVER 41. I almost always lean to the OVER in these Thursday night games, as I just don’t think defenses can play up to their potential on just 3 days of rest. On top of that, I think we are getting a pretty decent number here with both of these teams coming off games in Week 10 where neither side scored 20 points.

Not only do I think both defenses will struggle with getting their bodies up to speed on just 3 days of rest, but I could see both defenses being a bit emotionally drained from really big games at home last week. No one was giving the Steelers a shot at beating the Rams at home and few believed in the Browns being able to beat the Bills. Both defenses had to give everything they had in those wins, which I think only adds to the likelihood that they struggle a bit on Thursday.

Also, history is on our side. Only once in the last 5 meetings have these two teams failed to reach 40 points. Last year they combined for 42 in Cleveland and 51 at Pittsburgh.

I think we could see Cleveland’s offense see an uptick in production now that Kareem Hunt is finally eligible. Hunt made his debut last week and rushed for 30 yards on just 4 attempts (7.5 yards/carry). He also had 7 receptions for 44 yards. Hunt was a difference maker with the Chiefs in his brief time in the league.

As for the Steelers offense, they are expected to get back running back James Conner, who has missed the last two weeks with a shoulder injury. Conner is a big upgrade over what the Steelers had to use without him. Give me the OVER 41!

50* NFC LATE AFTERNOON TOTAL OF THE YEAR (Over 52.5) 

The OVER has cashed in each of the Bucs last 5 games and it’s pretty easy to see why with all the points they are giving up. Tampa Bay has allowed 30+ points in 5 of their 7 games this season.

I also don’t think this is an ideal spot for the defense to play well against an elite quarterback like Russell Wilson (TB 31st vs pass) and the fact that a lot of the Bucs players have to be running on fumes. Tampa Bay hasn’t played a home game since Week 3 (Sept. 22) as 4 of their last 5 have been true road games and the other was played in London.

As for Seattle’s defense, this is not the same vaunted Seahawks defense of years past. Seahawks are 27th against the pass and middle of the pack against the run. While the OVER is just 4-3 in their last 5, each of the last two games have barely stayed UNDER. They combined for 46 with a total of 48.5 against the Ravens and 47 with a total of 48.5 against the Falcons.

OVER is 15-5 in the Bucs last 20 road games and that includes a 9-2 OVER mark on the road with a total of 45.5 or more. OVER is also 11-2 in the Seahawks last 13 home games after a contest where they gave up 7 or more yards/play in their last game. Give me the OVER 52.5!

50* USC/COLO PAC-12 TOTAL OF THE MONTH (OVER 62)

You can pencil in USC for a minimum of 30-points in this one and it wouldn’t surprise me if they eclipsed the 40-point mark. Colorado has given up at least 30 in every game. The only team giving up more passing yards/game than the 316 ypg the Buffaloes are allowing is New Mexico. Trojans Kedon Slovis had 377 against Stanford earlier this season and should go off here.

Also, I’m aware USC could be down their top 3 running backs. Starter Vavae Malepeai is out for the season, Stephen Carr and Markese Stepp are both questionable. Sometimes injuries can uncover a star and the Trojans are hoping that is the case for freshman Kenan Christon, who needed just 8 carries to rack up 103 yards and 2 scores. He’s got incredible speed and is a legit threat to go the distance any time he touches the ball.

Key here is I believe the Colorado offense will snap out of it’s recent funk and do their part to get us over the mark. Playing at home will definitely help and USC is dealing with all kinds of injuries on the defensive side of the ball. They were without their top 3 corners and defensive end Christian Rector last week. They added safety Talanoe Hufanga and star defensive linemen Drake Jackson to the injury list. Give me the OVER 62!

50* REDSKINS/VIKINGS TNF SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 42) 

I know the Redskins offense is hard to trust, but it’s not asking a lot for these two to get to 43 with both these defenses playing on 3 days rest.

It’s not out of the question that Minnesota could eclipse this total on their own. Vikings are playing with a ton of confidence on the offensive side of the ball and who knows how much resistance the Redskins defense will put up.

You can’t read anything into Washington holding the 49ers to 9-points with those conditions and the only other teams they have held under 30 points this season are the Dolphins and Giants. I would be shocked if Minnesota had anything fewer than 30 points in this game.

I’m going to count on Washington getting to at least 14 and I think they could get a few more. Minnesota’s defense has been slipping of late and with the way the offense figures to be moving the ball, they might not be 100% locked in. They also might call off the dogs if they do get up big, as they got a big game at KC on deck.

OVER is 9-2 in the Redskins last 11 road games vs a team with a winning home record and 7-1 in their last 8 games played on a Thursday. OVER is also 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams in Minnesota. Take the OVER!

50* NBA LATE NIGHT TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Over 232.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the OVER 232.5 in tonight's matchup between the Suns and Kings.   A ton of young talent on both of these rosters and one thing young teams struggle with is playing defense, especially in games that don't matter this early in the season. Not to mention, these two were playing at two of the fastest paces in the preseason, so the tempo is going to be ideal for a high-scoring game. BET THE OVER 232.5! 

50* NBA OPENING NIGHT MAX BET WINNER  (Over 231) 

You can't read a ton from preseason games, but one thing I like to look at is pace. Both these teams ranked in the Top 5 in pace of play this preseason. I think without Kawhi the Raptors will be looking to push the pace a lot more, as they need those easy buckets in transition. As for the Pelicans, they are a young group of kids that want to fly up and down the floor. No Zion no problem, there's a lot more talent than him on this team. They got a lot of guys who can shoot the 3. I got both teams reaching 120 in this one. BET THE OVER 231! 

50* NFL NON-CONF TOTAL OF THE YEAR (Under 47) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the UNDER 47 in Sunday's showdown between the Raiders and Packers. I think this is going to be an ugly game the whole way. Green Bay is out star wide out Davante Adams and may be without both Allison and Valdes-Scantling. Problem is the Packers likely will need to be able to throw, as the Raiders have held 4 of their first 5 opponents under 100 yards rushing. They also have only allowed more than 255 passing once this season and that was to Mahomes and a healthy KC offense. 

Oakland's defense is better than people give them credit for, plus they should be extra sharp on that side coming off a bye. As for the Packers defense, it's really what has saved this team. Green Bay has really improved on that side of the ball and we have seen this Oakland offense struggle to get going when up against better defensive teams. I don't see this turning into a shootout. BET THE UNDER 47! 

50* CHIEFS/BRONCOS TNF SHARP TOP PLAY (Over 48.5)

It’s really hard for the books to set the number on the total high enough in these Thursday games. It’s hard for these players to bounce back from just 3-days of rest and it tends to have a bigger impact on the defenses ability to perform up to expectations.

The Chiefs offense welcomed back arguably their best weapon in wide out Tyreek Hill last week and he led the way with 5 catches for 80 yards and two scores. 

I think the Broncos will have a tough time here keeping Mahomes and this Chiefs offense in check. At the same time, there’s little reason to think the Kansas City defense is going to play well in this game. They are down nose tackle Xavier Williams, defensive linemen Chris Jones and corner Kendall Fuller.

As bad as the Broncos offense has been, this is a team they can have success against. I also think it’s important to note that Denver’s offense has faced a lot of good defenses. Outside of their two division games against Oakland and Los Angeles, they have had to go up against the Bears, Jaguars, Packers and Titans. All of those teams rank in the top half of the league in scoring defense.

You also got to look at the last three meetings in the series, all of which have come with Mahomes as the starter for KC. Each of those games saw at least 50 combined points.

OVER is 17-5 in the Chiefs last 22 road games, 7-2 in their last 9 off a game they failed to cover, 4-1 in their last 5 off a SU loss and 5-1 in their last 6 on Thursday. Take the OVER!

Bonus Prop Bet: Philip Lindsay OVER 72.5 (-110) Rushing Yards

50* GIANTS/PATRIOTS TNF VEGAS SHARP TOP PLAY (Over 41) 

New York will be down their top two running backs, as well as wideout Sterling Shepard and tight end Evan Engram. Plus, we just saw Jones and the Giants do next to nothing against a good Minnesota defense and the Patriots defense has looked outstanding early on.

You just can’t expect teams to play up to their full potential on the defensive side of the ball when they only get 3 days of rest. Look at how good the Packers defense played in Week 1-3 (allowed a combined 35 points), how they struggled in Week 4 on Thursday Night Football (allowed 34 points) and then how good they played against Dallas last week.

I know Belichick has owned rookie quarterbacks and all that, but I think with Jones at quarterback they can put up at least 10-14 points and that’s on the low end of things.

At the same, I could see New England going over the total on their own. The Giants defense is awful. They let Kirk Cousins, who had been awful up to this point, throw for 306 yards and 2 scores while completing 82% of his passes. They are giving up 9.1 yards per pass play. They got no chance of slowing down Tom Brady and that Patriots offense. I think the Pats could play poorly and still score 30+ points.

The other thing is that with the Giants decimated at the running back position and them likely playing from behind early, New York is going to be forced to throw a lot. Add in Belichick’s ability to confuse rookie QB’s and it would shock me if the Giants didn’t have multiple turnovers in this game. That should lead to easy quick scores for NE. Give me the OVER 41!

50* NFC OVER/UNDER TOTAL OF THE YEAR (Under 47) 

I'm expecting an ugly low-scoring affair in Sunday's big matchup between the Cowboys and Packers. I think both of these teams are a lot better defensively than people realize and a bit limited on the offensive side of the ball. Cowboys offense was awful against New Orleans. They had just 45 rushing yards and 212 thru the air. Packers defense gave up a lot last week to the Eagles, but that was largely due to it being played on Thursday and the defensive guys just not having enough time to recover. Give me the UNDER 47! 

50* RAMS/SEAHAWKS TNF SHARP TOP PLAY (Over 49) 

My early lean here would be to take the OVER 49. I just don’t know if Seattle is as good as we think and I’m not about to take LA in a pick’em on the road with 3 days of rest. I just think given how defenses have struggled to perform in these Thursday games, that’s where the value is.

Clearly there are some holes in the Rams defense, especially against the pass. Jameis Winston completed 28 of 41 for 385 yards and 4 scores last week. They let Chris Godwin haul in 12 catches for 172 yards and 2 scores. Russell Wilson only threw for 240 last week, but that’s because they were up big early. He had 406 the previous week against the Saints and 300 the week before at Pittsburgh. I think he’s going to have a big day throwing the ball.

As for the Rams offense, I really think that outburst by them was a big positive in the loss to Tampa last week. That was the first time all year they looked anything like the offense from 2018. Seattle’s defense has been decent, but they have also faced Andy Dalton, Mason Rudolph, Teddy Bridgewater and Kyler Murray.

You also have to take into account the recent meetings between these two have all been high-scoring. Both meetings last year saw at least 64 combined points.

Over is 10-3 in Seahawks last 13 games overall, including 8-2 in their last 10 at home vs a team with a winning road record. OVER 7-3 in the Rams last 10 after giving up 30 or more points and 4-1 in their last 5 after scoring 30 or more. Give me the OVER 49!

50* RAYS/A'S AL WILD CARD TOTAL OF THE YEAR (Under 7.5) 

I love the UNDER 7.5 in Wednesday's AL Wild Card matchup. You got two really good starters going in a pitchers park (Coliseum). Tampa will send out Charlie Morton, who went 16-6 with a 3.05 ERA and 1.084 WHIP in 33 starts this season. Morton had a strong 8-3 record with a 3.59 ERA in 16 road starts and owns a 3.20 ERA in 7 career outings against the A's. Oakland will turn to Sean Manaea, which is pretty amazing. Manaea only made 5 starts after missing close to a year because of injury. He looked as good as ever in those 5 outings, posting a 1.21 ERA and 0.775 WHIP. He recorded 17 or more outs in each of his last 4 starts and after walking 5 in his first two outings, hel only walked 2 over his last 3. We also know that we will see the best of the best relievers in this winner take all matchup. Give me the UNDER 7.5! 

50* NCAAF BIG TEN TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Over 60) 

I think these two are going to fly OVER the total tonight. Penn State is coming off a very misleading 17-10 final against Pitt. That game was played in the rain and the sloppy field conditions really limited both offenses. That same Pitt defense gave up 34 points and over 400 yards of offense against UCF. 

Penn State is young on the offensive side of the ball, but they got big time talent across the board. Maryland's defense gave up 400 yards to Syracuse and 427 to Temple. Neither of those offenses are anything close to as good as what they will see from the Nittany Lions. 

At the same time, I like what I have seen from the Terps offensively in 2019. Joshua Jackson looks like a great fit (Va Tech transfer) and I think there are some definitely holes in the Penn State defense. While they held Buffalo to a mere 13 points, they gave up 429 total yards to the Buffaloes. Same thing against Pitt, they held the Panthers to 10 points despite allowing 394 yards (gave up 372 passing yards). I think both teams easily hit 30 points. Give me the OVER 60! 

50* EAGLES/PACKERS TNF SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 46) 

I'll take my chances with the OVER 46. Even though we haven’t seen a ton of scoring early on in these Thursday Night matchups, I still think there’s some value to be had on that side of the total in these games played on just 3 days of rest.

I think one of the big focal points coming into this game will be how good the Green Bay defense has played. I’m not about to say the Packers defense hasn’t been good, but I also don’t think it’s as good as some might think. Let’s not overlook the fact that the 3 quarterbacks Green Bay has faced are Mitch Trubisky, Kirk Cousins and Joe Flacco. I think we all would take Carson Wentz over any of those 3 starters.

Another thing to note is that while Green Bay has not allowed a lot of points, teams are running the ball effectively on them. Packers are allowing 131 ypg and 4.9 yards/carry against the run.

As for the Eagles defense, they have done an outstanding job against the run, but have had their problems against the pass. Philadelphia is only allowing 57 yards/game and 2.9 yards/carry against the run, but allowing 294 passing yards/game and 7.4 yards/pass attempt. I know Rodgers hasn’t been lighting it up, but I could see him going off in this prime time matchup.

OVER is 16-5 in the Packers last 21 vs a team with a losing record. OVER is also 35-17 in the Eagles last 52 off a straight up loss and 4-1 in their last 5 games played on Thursday.

OVER is 40-16 (71%) the last 10 seasons when you have a home team playing  in the month of September that has covered the spread in each of their last two games. Take the OVER!

50* NFL SAINTS/TEXANS MNF SHARP TOP PLAY (Over 52) 

I'll take my chances here with the OVER 52 in this one. This thing has shootout written all over it. Houston's defense won't be as strong without Clowney and there's just no slowing down Drew Brees and that Saints offense at home. Keep in mind Texans ranked 28th against the pass last year and got a lot of new faces on that side of the ball. Even bigger thing here is I think Houston's offense will be potent in 2019. DeShaun Watson quietly had a great 2018 season and that was behind an awful offensive line. In losing Clowney they got a big upgrade in left tackle Laremy Tunsil. They used a 1st and 2nd round pick on offensive linemen. Saints defense ranked 29th vs the pass last year. Give me the OVER 52! 

50* NCAAF FRIDAY NIGHT OVER/UNDER KNOCKOUT (Over 56.5)

I'll gladly take my chances with the oVER 56.6 in Friday's matchup between Marshall and Boise State. Two talented young quarterbacks will be guiding the two offenses in this one. Thundering Herd send out sophomore Isaiah Green, who was the C-USA Freshman Player of the Year in 2018. Green is expected to make a big jump this year and just set a new career-high with 4 TD passes in their Week 1 win. Boise State has true freshman Hank Bachmeier looking to build on quite the first start. Bachmeier threw for 407 yards in a win at Florida State. The most impressive thing is they trusted him enough to let him air it out 51 times. Boise as a team ran 108 plays. I think there will be a lot of big plays in the passing game and for this to easily hit 60. Give me the OVER 56.5! 

50* NATIONAL LEAGUE TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Under 8.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 8.5 in this one. I know the Nationals have score 16 runs in the first two games of the series, but Chicago will have Cole Hamels on the mound and he's posted a 2.56 ERA and 1.090 WHIP in 10 home starts. He'll be 100% locked in with the team desperately needing a win here. Cubs offense has been real quiet of late and figures to stay that way against Stephen Strasburg. In 9 career starts against Chicago, Strasburg has posted a 1.59 ERA and 0.898 WHIP. Both of these starters also love pitching in day games. Hamels has a 2.48 ERA in 9 day starts, while Strasburg owns a 2.87 ERA in 11 day starts. Take the UNDER 8.5! 

50* MIAMI/FLORIDA NCAAF WEEK ZERO TOP PLAY (Under 47)

If I had to take a side, I would grab the points with the Hurricanes, but I feel the better value is with the UNDER 47 on the total.

Miami has without a doubt one of the best front seven’s in college football. They got 3 potential NFL linebackers who all turned down the NFL to return for their senior season. This defense led the country last year in tackles for loss.

One of the things that gets overlooked by the public when they look at the early season matchups is the talent returning/lost along the offensive line. Last year Florida had all 5 starters back on the offensive line. It’s a big reason why they had such a strong running back and Feleipe Franks was able to make a big jump. This year only one starter is back and I just don’t see them being able to handle that front of the Hurricanes.

It’s a very similar story on the other side of the ball. Florida has so much talent on the defensive side of the ball and should have one of the best defensive lines in the country. Defensive coordinator Todd Grantham is one of those guys that it really doesn’t matter the talent, he’s going to field a top tier defense. He’s got 8 starters back on that side of the ball.

Miami loses 3 starters on the offensive line, don’t have near the same talent at running back as they did a season ago and will be starting red-shirt freshman Jarren Williams at quarterback. Williams surprised everyone by beating out returning sophomore N’Kosi Pery and Ohio State transfer Tate Martell.

Not only will it be difficult for both teams to move the ball, you have to think that if/when they do get in the redzone they will have to end up settling for field goals.

UNDER is 20-7 in the Gators last 27 matchups with a team from the ACC and 7-1 in the Hurricanes last 8 neutral site contests. Give me the UNDER 47!

50* NFLX VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (OVER 42) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the OVER. The Giants have put up 30 points on their own in each of their first two preseason games and they got quite the 1-2 punch for the preseason in Eli Manning and rookie Daniel Jones. Manning really seems to be using the push from Jones in a positive way. He's a perfect 5-5 and led NY to a TD on his only drive last week. Even 3rd and 4th stringers Alex Tanney and Kyle Lauletta have played well. We saw Cincinnati's defense get torched for 38 by the Chiefs in their first game. Giants defense has looked decent, but a lot of that has to do with the Bears only using quarterbacks Chase Daniel and Tyler Bray last week. Andy Dalton will be in there a decent amount and the Bengals have a pretty decent rookie QB of their own in Ryan Finley, who was 20 of 26 for 150 yards and 2 scores last week. Give me the OVER 42! 

50* MLB VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Brewers/Cardinals OVER 9.5) 

I'll take my chances with the OVER 9.5. Yesterday we played the OVER 11 in Milwaukee's game with Washington and the two combined for 24. That's now 30 runs in the last 2 games that the Brewers pitching has allowed. The bullpen is taxed and that's a problem, as it will be tough for the starters to go deep in this one. The heat index at game time is expected to be around 105 degrees with almost no wind. It's going to be miserable conditions to pitch. Look for some big innings by both teams that have this thing easily reaching double-digits. Give me the OVER 9.5! 

50* MLB VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Brewers/Nationals Over 11) 

The Nationals and Brewers combined for 29 runs in Milwaukee's 15-14 win in 14-innings on Saturday. Not only are both offenses headed into Sunday swinging a confident bat, but both of these teams' bullpens were taxed yesterday. Add in a pretty mediocre pitching matchup of Anderson vs Fedde and awful conditions with a heat index around 100 and I think we see these two fly past the total. Give me the OVER 11! 

50* MLB VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 8.5)

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER again in the Cubs/Cardinals series. We have cashed in on the UNDER in each of the first two games in the series and it hasn't been close. Game 1 had a total of 3 runs with a total of 8.5. Game 2 had 2 runs with a total of 8.5. We have the same 8.5 total posted for Game 3 and I see another strong pitching matchup. Cubs have Jon Lester on the mound, who is coming off a start at Milwaukee where he allowed just 4 hits in 7 shutout innings. Cardinals counter with Jack Flaherty, who has a 1.56 ERA and 1.039 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Give me the UNDER 8.5! 

50* MLB VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 8.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER once again in the Cubs/Cardinals series. I cashed in an easy winner on the UNDER 8.5 Tuesday, as St Louis squeaked out a 2-1 win. I think we are in line for another pitchers duel tonight, as the Cubs send out Kyle Hendricks and the Cardinals counter with Miles Mikolas. Hendricks has a 3.06 ERA and 1.066 WHIP in 17 starts against St Louis and Mikolas has a sensational 1.95 ERA and 1.108 WHIP in 6 starts vs the Cubs. Take the UNDER 8.5! 

50* NATIONAL LEAGUE TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Under 8.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 8.5 in Tuesdays' series opener between the Cubs and Cardinals. Chicago will send out Yu Darvish, who has finally start to pitch like the guy they thought they were getting when they signed him to the big deal. Darvish has a 2.00 ERA and 0.667 WHIP in his last 3 starts. A stretch where he's allowed just 10 hits, with only 2 walks and 21 strikeouts in 18 innings. Cardinals counter with veteran Adam Wainwright, who has pitched exceptionally well at home compared to on the road. Wainwright has a 2.33 ERA and 1.204 WHIP in 9 home starts. Give me the UNDER 8.5!

50* MLB OVER/UNDER TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Under 9) 

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER at 9 in Sunday's series finale between the Brewers and Diamondbacks. A lot of people aren't going to think a pitchers duel when they see Brandon Woodruff vs Alex Young, but that's exactly what I'm expecting. Woodruff just keeps flying under the radar, despite a 11-3 record and 3.53 ERA in 19 starts. He's been lights out of late with a 1.33 ERA and 0.983 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Young is making his 4th start since joining the rotation on June 27th. He's 3-0 with a 1.10 ERA and 0.551 WHIP in those 3 starts. UNDER is also a dominant 11-1 in the Diamondbacks 12 home games over the last 2 seasons when listed as a dog of +125 or more. Give me the UNDER 9! 

50* MLB VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 9) 

I'll take my chances here with the Dodgers and Red Sox combining for double-digit runs on Saturday. These two combined for 9 on Friday with LA scoring just 1 run. I think they hit 10 runs easy. Chris Sale is considered the ace of the Boston staff, but he's pitched like a No. 5 starter at best of late. Sale has a 7.02 ERA and 1.620 WHIP In his last 3 starts, giving up 14 runs on 22 hits (5 HRs) in his last 16 2/3 innings. It's a similar story for Dodgers starter Ross Stripling, who has a 6.75 ERA and 1.667 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Just too much offensive fire-power between these two teams and the ball should carry at hitter friendly Fenway Park with temps expected in the mid 80s and light wind. Give me the OVER 9! 

50* MLB VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 8) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the UNDER 8 in Saturday's matchup between the Cardinals and Padres. These two teams combined for just 4 runs in Friday's series opener and I don't see either offense exploding with today's starters. St Louis will send out the consistent Dakota Hudson who just keeps churning out Quality Starts. Hudson also has a 2.25 ERA in his last 3 outings. Chris Paddack will go for the Padres and he's struggled a bit of late, but is coming off a couple of solid outings and has a very strong 2.50 ERA and 0.750 WHIP in 6 home starts. UNDER is 5-1 in Hudson's 6 road starts this season and 5-1 in Paddack's 6 home starts. Give me the UNDER! 

50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 216) 

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER  in Game 4 of the NBA Finals. I know we just saw these two fly past the total in Game 3, but that was simply a result of the Warriors not bringing the energy on the defensive side of the ball. Raptors were getting way too many layups, which in turn upped their confidence and I believe led to them going 17-38 (44%) from deep. They were +5 on 3-pointers over the Warriors. They were just 11-38 (29%) in Game 2, so we should expect to see regression from Game 3. Golden State can't go down 3-1 with 2 of the next 3 in Toronto. They have to win, which means max effort defensively. I think the same applies for the Raptors. If they are serious about dethroning the champs they need to win this game with Durant out and Thompson at less than 100%. Give me the UNDER! 

50* RAPTORS/WARRIORS GAME 3 SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 213.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the UNDER in Game 3. It took an unthinkable scoring drought at the end of Game 2 for that to stay UNDER the total. I think that has a lot of people going back to the OVER in Game 3. Not me. Durant has already been ruled out and I think there's a decent chance that Klay Thompson doesn't play or plays at way less than 100%. We saw how hard it was for the Warriors to score once Thompson went out and I think the effort is going to be there for Toronto, especially on the defensive end. I could easily see both teams not getting to 100 points. Give me the UNDER 213.5! 

50* MLB VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 8.5) 

I'll take my chances with the Indians/White Sox combining for fewer than 9 runs in Sunday's series finale. Chicago has one of the hottest starters in the game going in Lucas Giolito. In his last 3 starts, Giolito has a 1.64 ERA and 0.636 WHIP. He's now 7-1 with a 2.85 ERA and 0.983 in 10 starts overall. Cleveland will turn to Zach Plesac, who was sharp in his first big league start last week, allowing just 1 run on 4 hits in 5 1/3 innings. That was on the road against a loaded Red Sox offense. No reason to think he can't keep a sub-par White Sox offense in check. Give me the UNDER 8.5! 

50* BUCKS/RAPTORS GAME 6 SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 212.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER in Game 6. We cashed in an easy winner on the UNDER in Game 5 and I think we are going to see a very similar type of game tonight. I could actually see it being even more low scoring. Raptors defense has been great all playoffs and Milwaukee has no choice but to give everything they got on that side of the ball facing elimination. Easily see both teams fail to get to 100 points. Give me the UNDER 212.5! 

50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 216.5) 

I'll take my chances with the UNDER in Game 5 of the Raptors/Bucks series. The last 3 in the series have gone OVER the total, but two of those were results of blowouts and the other is a game that went to double-overtime. I just think with the thing tied 2-2 and how good these two teams are defensively, we are going to see this thing stay well below the number here. I wouldn't be shocked at all if both teams failed to reach 100 points. Give me the UNDER 216.5! 

50* BUCKS/RAPTORS GAME 4 VEGAS TOP PLAY (Under 217.5) 

I'll take my chances with the UNDER in Game 4. Each of the last two in the series have gone OVER the total, but Game 3 going over was a joke. It was 96-96 at the end of regulation, which is a total of 192. The two teams proceeded to score 38 more points in two overtime periods to finish with 230. As much as people want to focus on the offensive stars, these are two elite defensive teams and this game is massive, as we either have the Bucks go up 3-1 or Toronto tie it up at 2-2. Both teams are going to bring it tonight. Give me the UNDER 217.5! 

50* MLB VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 8.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 8.5 in Monday's series opener between the Tigers and Astros. I absolutely love the pitching matchup in this one and feel we are getting a ton of value with the number. Detroit will have Matt Boyd on the mound, who has arguably been the best pitcher in 2019 that no one knows about. Boyd has a 2.86 ERA and 0.934 WHIP in 8 starts. He's got 63 strikeouts in 50.3 innings and has not allowed more than 3 earned runs in any start this season. Houston will have Brad Peacock on the mound and he's fresh off throwing 7 shutout innings with 12 strikeouts in his last start. Give me the UNDER 8.5!  

50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 209.5)

I'll take my chances here with the Raptors and 76ers staying UNDER the total in Game 7. I honestly don't think either team is going to reach 100 points. Keep in mind that in the first 3 games played in Toronto, Philadelphia has managed to score just 95, 94 and 89 points. The 76ers defense has been hit or miss, but we know we are getting a max effort in a winner take all scenario. Give me the UNDER 209.5! 

50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 214.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER in Game 4 on Sunday. These two have stayed UNDER the total in each of the first 3 games of the series and the UNDER is 7-1 in Toronto's 8 playoff games and 6-2 in the 76ers 8 games. Philadelphia seems to have figured out this Raptors offense and it just got easier with Siakam unlikely to play. As for Toronto's defense, the energy wasn't where it needed to be in Game 3. I'm pretty confident the intensity will be there as they try to avoid going down 3-1 and tie this thing up at 2-2 going back to Toronto. Give me the UNDER 214.5! 

50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 221)

I'll gladly take my chances with the UNDER 221 in Game 2 between the 76ers and Raptors. These two teams combined for just 203 points in Game 1, which closed with a total of 223. The game stayed under the mark by 20-points, even with the two teams combining for 70 points in the 1st quarter (280 pace). The most points the Raptors have allowed in the postseason so far is 104 and that was Game 1 of the first round against the Magic. Since then they have gone 5 straight not allowing more than 96. I expect more of the same with a much better effort on the defensive side from Philly. Give me the UNDER 221! 

50* MLB VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 7.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 7.5 in Thursday's NL East clash between the Phillies and Marlins. It's been a rough start for Philadelphia starter Aaron Nola, but the guy finished 3rd in the NL Cy Young voting last year and is coming off a promising outing at Coors Field against the Rockies. It also helps the Marlins offense is atrocious. Miami is only averaging 2.7 runs/game and hitting .215 on the season, which drops off to 1.6 runs/game and .180 on the road. Key here is the Marlins have a top notch starter of their own going in Caleb Smith, who has a 2.35 ERA and 0.870 WHIP in 4 starts. Give me the UNDER 7.5! 

50* MLB AL WEST TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Under 8.5) 

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 8.5 in this one. Texas just scored 20 runs over back-to-back wins against the Astros over the weekend, but those offensive outbursts came at home. Rangers are averaging 5.8 runs/game on the season, but just 4.0 runs/game on the road, which tells you how much better they are at home than on the road. The Coliseum in Oakland is more of a pitchers park and the average combined score in A's home games this season is 6.7. 

Oakland's offense is in a bit of a slump right now, having scored 2 or fewer in 4 of their last 5. Won't be easy snapping out of that funk against the red-hot Mike Minor, who has a 0.78 ERA and 0.826 WHIP in his last 3 starts, which includes a complete game shutout in his last outing at home against the Angels. Give me the UNDER 8.5! 

50* NATIONAL LEAGUE TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Under 7.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 7.5 in Saturday's NL clash between the Giants and Pirates. Pittsburgh's PNC Park favors the pitchers and I think we have a couple of underrated guys going head-to-head in this one. Pirates will send out Jameson Taillon, who most expected to be good, but he's been outstanding in his last 3, posting a 2.40 ERA and 1.133 WHIP. His best start also came at home against St Louis and that's his only start at home so far in 2019. San Francisco will turn to Derek Holland, who despite a 4.09 ERA has been effective. Even bigger key to Holland having success, is the fact that the Pirates are hitting just .214 as a team and scoring a mere 2.7 runs/game vs left-handed starters this year. Give me the UNDER 7.5! 

50* MLB VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 8.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the UNDER 8.5 in Friday's NL East showdown between the Marlins and Phillies. Miami's offense has been really bad to start 2019. They have been shutout 3 times already, including twice in their last 3 games. They just scored a whopping 1-run in a 3-game series at Cincinnati. I don't see them breaking out of their slump against Phillies starter Jake Arrieta. 

Key here is I don't think Philadelphia will be doing a lot of scoring either. Miami's Sandy Alcantara has one really good start at home against the Rockies (0 ER, 4 Hits, 8 innings) and one poor outing at Atlanta. I think he's going to be one of those guys that is just going to be a lot better at home. Give me the UNDER! 

50* MLB [NL EAST] TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Under 9) 

I'll gladly take my chances on the UNDER 9 in Thursday's NL East clash between the Braves and Mets. This one comes down to the two starters we have going. Atlanta sends out Kevin Gausman, who didn't allow a run and struck out 7 in 7 innings to start 2019. Mets will counter with Steven Matz, who has made two starts and owns a 0.87 ERA and 1.162 WHIP . Matz is also 4-0 with a 2.75 ERA in 7 career starts agains the Braves. Give me the UNDER 9! 

50* VIRGINIA/TEXAS TECH SHAPR MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 118) 

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER, as I just don't see any reason to overthink this one. You have arguably the two best defensive teams in the country facing off. Neither team likes to push the pace and both have their limitations on the offensive side of the ball. Texas Tech only combined for 112 in their win over Michigan State and Virginia's victory over Auburn saw just 125. I think this could be really tough to watch for those that don't like defense, as I think it could be a race to 50 points. Give me the UNDER 118. 

50* NL CENTRAL TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Under 8) 

I'll take my chances with the UNDER in Sunday's NL Central clash between the Reds and Pirates. Love both the starters going in this one and both were sharp in their first starts of 2019. Pittsburgh will send out Chris Archer, allowed just 2 hits with 8 K's in 5 shutout innings in his first start. Cincinnati will counter with Anthony Desclafani, who allowed just 1 run on 3 hits with 8 K's in 5 innings. Bet the UNDER 8! 

50* FINAL FOUR PLAY OF THE YEAR (Under 132) 

I'm shocked this total is in the 130's. I'll gladly take my chances it stays below the mark. Michigan State surprised everyone by beating Duke, but they only managed 68 points on 43% shooting in the win. The Blue Devils play good defense on just their talent. Texas Tech's defense is on a whole different level. 

All Michigan State has to do is ask their biggest rival in Michigan, who the Red Raiders held to a mere 44 points and 33% shooting. Michigan State's offense might be a little better than the Wolverines, but not by much. 

Spartans are also a very strong defense team and I just think it's going to be a struggle for both sides to reach 50 points and this total is basically asking both teams to score 66. Give me the UNDER 132! 

50* MLB AL EAST TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Under 7.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 7.5 in Thursday's AL East clash between the Yankees and Orioles. New York has James Paxton on the mound and he's one of the best pitchers in the AL. He only gave up 1 earned run and 4 hits in 5 2/3 innings in his first start. Orioles offense has cooled off last two games, scoring 3 or less in both games. Don't see them scoring a lot here. 

Yankees offense has scored exactly 1 run in each of their last 2 games and 3 or fewer in 4 of their last 5. They are without one of the better hitters in Stanton and probably aren't going to go off until it starts warming up and the ball carries a little better. Orioles will also have Alex Cobb on the mound, who was much better in the 2nd half of last year and is only a few years removed from posting back-to-back seasons where he had an ERA under 3.00 in 20+ starts. Give me the UNDER 7.5! 

50* NIT SEMIFINAL *MAX BET* TOP PLAY (Over 150.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the OVER in Tuesday's NIT semifinal action between  Wichita State and Lipscomb. For those that haven't watched the Bisons, they have one of the best players you haven't heard of in Garrison Mathews. The guy just put up 44 points against NC State. He can really do it all, as he made 14 shots in total, including 8 from behind the 3-point line. He's playing out of his mind in the NIT and I think the assumption here is that Wichita State is going to be able to shut him down. 

I don't think so and as long as Mathews plays well, this thing should easily eclipse this total. Not only is Mathews a prolific scorer, but this Lipscomb team plays at the 14th fastest pace in the country. They are also a very unselfish team (24 assists on 34 made field goals vs NC State). They have scored at leas 86 in all 3 NIT games and given up 80+ twice. 

Note that while the Shockers aren't giving up a ton in the NIT, they have played 3 teams that don't like to push the tempo in Indiana (216th), Clemson (252nd) and Furman (231st). The closest thing to Lipscomb that Wichita State has seen in terms of pace is Memphis (7th). Both meetings saw at least 159 points and both times Memphis got to 85 points. Also, Tigers won both of those games, so I would definitely lean Lipscomb for those wanting to play a side. I just see more value in the total. Give me the OVER 150.5! 

50* NBA NON-CONF TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Over 219) 

I'll take my chances here with the OVER 219 in Monday's NBA action between the Jazz and Hornets. Charlotte is playing a lot of young guys and are getting abused on the defensive side of the floor here of late. Hornets just let the Warriors shoot 60% from the field for the game and have allowed 56% or worse in 3 of their last 4. Utah is known for their defense, but have scored 110 or more in 10 straight. I think this easily eclipses 220. Give me the OVER 219! 

50* MLB OPENING DAY PLAY OF THE YEAR (Over 8) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the OVER 8 in this one. The Reds and Pirates might not have what it takes to compete with the Cubs, Cardinals and Brewers for the NL Central crown, but these are not bad teams by any means. I think both have a lot more offensive fire-power than they get credit for and there's a couple other key factors that should lead to a lot of runs being scored. 

For starters, the Great American Ball Park is one of the most hitter-friendly stadiums in the league and while it won't be carrying as well as it will in June/July/August, it's expected to be in the 70's with the wind blowing straight out to left field at close to 15 mph. 

As for the pitching matchup, Pirates Jameson Taillon had a mere 4.85 ERA in Spring Training and is just 4-4 with a 4.30 ERA and 1.343 WHIP in 12 career starts against the Reds. Cincinnati will turn to Luis Castillo, who is 1-3 with a 4.00 ERA in 5 starts vs the Pirates and gave up 12 runs on 13 hits and 5 walk in a mere 8 2/3 innings in Spring Training. Give me the OVER 8! 

50* NCAA 1ST ROUND TOTAL OF THE YEAR (Under 126.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER in Friday's matchup between Virginia Tech and St. Louis. I don't think either of these two teams are going to find it easy to score, as both of these teams are built on their defense. Both rank in the Top 15 in the country in defensive efficiency. St Louis also likes to grind things out and limit the number of possessions, which is ideal for unders. It's why the UNDER has cashed in 37 of the last 54 non-conference games for the Billikens. Give me the UNDER 126.5! 

50* NBA NON-CONF TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Over 218) 

I'll gladly take my chances here in this bottom-feeder showdown between the Suns and Cavs. I just don't see a whole lot of defense being played in this one. These are two awful teams that really are better off losing than winning right now. There's just no motivation for either side to be 100% locked in on the defensive side. 

Not that these two teams could play quality defense if they wanted to. Phoenix has allowed at least 116 points in 13 straight games. I know the Cavs aren't a great offensive team, but they are a lot better now that Kevin Love is back in the lineup. Cleveland gives up 113 points/game and Suns have only failed to reach 100 points once in their last 8 games. I think this thing finishes a lot closer to 230 than 220. Give me the OVER 218! 

50* NCAAB VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 157.5) 

I'll take my chances here with Buffalo and Toledo going OVER the mark set by the books. These two teams played at Buffalo back in early January and combined for 190 points in a 110-80 win for the Bulls. I just don't see a change in venue being enough for the Rockets to slow down this high-powered Buffalo offense, which is averaging 85.2 ppg and shooting 47% from the field in conference play. However, I could see Toledo keeping pace at home, as the Rockets are scoring 78.7 ppg at home. OVER is also a perfect 9-0 in the Bulls last 9 road games in the month of February. Give me the OVER 157.5! 

50* NBA EASTERN CONF TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Over 227) 

I'll take my chances here with the OVER in Monday's Central Division clash between the Bulls and Bucks. OVER is perfect 4-0 in Chicago's last 4 and they are playing ideal basketball for the OVER to cash. Bulls are shooting lights out, hitting 50% or better in 6 straight and are playing little to no defense in the process. Don't be fooled by Milwaukee's 83-points last time out with the Greek Freak sidelined. This team will have no problem scoring 120+ here against the Bulls. I'm confident Chicago adds enough to push this well past the mark. Give me the OVER 227! 

50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 234) 

I'll take my chances with the Lakers and 76ers going OVER the mark of 234. I just think there's too much offensive fire-power in this one. Not to mention teams just don't play real hard defensively in the weeks leading up to the All-Star break. Not only are players looking ahead to the break, but they are starting to wear down. Lakers last two games have saw them give up 136 to the Pacers and 128 to the Celtics. They have allowed 120 or more points in 8 of their last 10 games. 76ers have allowed 110 or more in 5 of their last 7 and have scored at least 106 in every game they have played since the calendar turned to 2019. Give me the OVER! 

50* NBA WESTERN CONF TOTAL OF THE MONTH (UNDER 224) 

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER in Thursday's TNT clash between the Spurs and Thunder. This just feels like way too many points given how well both of these teams are playing on the defensive side of the ball. San Antonio has been playing great defense for over a month now and OKC has held each of their last 5 opponents under 44% from the field. Spurs are playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back and Thunder are running on fumes as well, which will keep the pace down. While these two haven't played yet this season, 6 of the last 7 meetings have gone UNDER the total. Give me the UNDER 224! 

50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 222.5)

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER. There's always a ton of value with the UNDER in these Christmas Day games, as this isn't just another regular-season game. Players consider it an honor to play on Christmas and more times than not we see playoff-like intensity. There's no doubt we get that level of intensity from these two division rivals. I think we could see both teams struggle to simply get to 100 points. Give me the UNDER 222.5! 

50* MNF VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 50) 

For whatever reason, these two have a history of playing high-scoring games. The OVER cashed in all 3 meetings between these two teams last year and is 7-1 in the last 8 overall.

A big reason for that is the Panthers defense hasn’t figured out a way to slow down Brees and the Saints offense. New Orleans had at least 31 points in all 3 meetings last year and have scored 30 or more in 5 of the last 6 in the series. It really shouldn’t be a big surprise. The Panthers defense hasn’t been great in the secondary and are more built to stop the run behind star middle linebacker Luke Kuechly. Their secondary can be exposed and few are better at dicing up defensive backs than Sean Payton and Brees.

This year is no different for Carolina. They come into this game ranked 7th against the run but are a mere 20th agains the pass. They also don’t do a great job of putting pressure on the quarterback, as they rank in the bottom 10 in sacks this year.

As for the Saints offensive struggles the last two games, I think a big part of that was both Dallas and Tampa Bay have been getting after the quarterback. Cowboys have been doing it all season and the Bucs have made major improvements in that area since switching defensive coordinators.

I think it’s reasonable to expect around 30 points from New Orleans, which means we only need something like 21-24 from Carolina. The Panthers can move the football. They are 9th in the NFL in total offense at 378.1 ypg. They are also lighting up the scoreboard at Bank of America Stadium. Carolina comes in averaging 30.8 ppg at home. Give me the OVER 50!

50* NBA CENTRAL TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Under 218.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with these two Central Division rivals going UNDER the mark set by the books. The UNDER has cashed in 7 straight games involving the Pacers and is 4-0 in the Bucks last 4 as well. A big reason for that is both teams are getting it done on the defensive end. Milwaukee is allowing just 104.8 ppg over their last 5 and Indiana is only giving up 97.8 ppg. Both teams are holding opponents under 43% shooting in their last 5. Bucks won by 17 at home way back on Oct. 19, but the UNDER is 10-1 in the Pacers last 11 when revenging a road loss of 10 or more points. Give me the UNDER 218.5! 

50* SUN NIGHT FOOTBALL TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Over 50.5) 

First things first with a midwest game in December, you have to check the forecast before playing the total. It’s going to be cold, but nothing these players can’t candle. Most importantly there’s no precipitation or strong winds expected. I think Mother Nature is the only thing that could keep these two teams from eclipsing this number.

I get the Bears have one of the best defenses in the NFL. There’s no denying that. I just think the Rams offense is simply too good for any defense to stop. They were average at best last week at Detroit and still managed to put 30 points up on the scoreboard. I think it’s also important to note that Tom Brady and the Patriots came into Soldier Field and put up 38 points earlier this season. 

The other big key here is I still think this Chicago offense is flying under the radar. Even with starting quarterback Mitch Trubisky out the past two games, they still managed 25 ppg and both of those were on the road. Trubisky and the Bears offense was really in a groove before he went down and we know this LA defense can be exposed.

Another factor here that I think favors the OVER is that while both defenses figure to give up plenty of points, both teams have a lot of playmakers on the defensive side of the ball. I think there’s going to be multiple turnovers and wouldn’t be shocked at all if both teams scored defensive touchdowns in this game.

I get 52 seems like a lot, but all we need is for a 30-23 final to cash a winning ticket. I actually think they score more than that and this thing ends up closer to 65. Give me the OVER 50.5!

50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (OVER 216) 

I'll take my chances here with the OVER 216 in tonight's NBA action that has the Rockets visiting the Jazz. Utah is coming off a game where they set a new franchise record with 20 made 3-pointers and shot 61% from the field on their way to putting up a 139 points against the Spurs. Houston's defense has been slipping of late, but the offense has also picked up and I just don't think it's asking a lot for these two to hit at least 220. OVER is 28-15 in Utah's last 43 off a win by 15 or more and 8-1 in their 9 home games this season. Give me the OVER 216! 

50* NFL -GB/SEA- VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (OVER 48) 

I'll gladly take my chances with the OVER at 48. I’ve said it time and time before, the books just don’t adjust the number enough on the total for these Thursday games. Playing good defense is all about effort and energy, where offense is more about execution. Three days just isn’t enough for these defensive guys to recover and play at their full potential.

We saw this first hand last week with the Panthers/Steelers matchup, which saw Pittsburgh eclipse the total on their own as the two combined for 73 points. There have only been two times this season where they OVER hasn’t hit on a Thursday game with teams playing on short rest. That was Week 3 with the Browns/Jets (only missed the over by a point and would have hit had Mayfield started instead of coming in for Tyrod Taylor). The other was a couple weeks ago with the 49ers/Raiders, where Oakland is in full-on tank mode.

This week we got two of the best quarterbacks in the game in Aaron Rodgers for Green Bay and Russell Wilson for the Seahawks. I expect both teams to have a lot of success moving the football.

The Packers are at the bigger disadvantage here, as they not only have to play on short-rest but they have to travel quite a ways for this one and it’s been quite a run of travel for Green Bay of late. They traveled to the west coast to play the Rams in Week 8, then went across the country to the east coast to play New England. They returned home for a game against Miami and are now headed back west.

For Seattle, I think it’s going to no only be tough for them to recover physically, but that was a very emotional game against a division rival where they were playing with revenge. Tough turnaround here for them to get up defensively after trying to contain that Rams offense.

While this is more about rest than anything for me, it’s worth noting the OVER is a solid 35-19 in the Packers last 54 as a road dog (avg. score in these games is 51.3)  and 13-4 in the Seahawks last 17 as a home favorite of 3-points or less. Give me the OVER 48! 

50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 51.5) 

Those that have been following from the start of the year, know how much I like the OVER in these Thursday night games. There's only been two games this season on Thursday with teams playing on short rest that have went under the total. One of those was last week, where who the hell knows what Gruden and the Raiders are doing. The other was a game that went under by just 1-point. Tonight we got two of the best offenses in the NFL, who both have top tier quarterbacks. I get how good Pittsburgh has been defensively and who the Panthers have on the defensive side of the ball, they just aren't going to be as good on just 3 days of rest, especially this late in the year. Not to mention the unfamiliarity these two teams have with this being a non-conference game and both teams coming off big division wins. Give me the OVER 51.5! 

50* RAIDERS/49ERS VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 45) 

I’ve recommended the OVER in every single Thursday Night game since Week 2, which is when the teams first have to play these games on just 3-days rest. All but one of them have finished OVER the total and that one just missed out by a single point. Many of the ones that have hit haven’t even been close. I could definitely see this one between the 49ers and Raiders flying over the total. 

What’s the real incentive for either of these teams right now? Oakland is trading away their best players for future draft picks and the 49ers season was over as soon as Garoppolo went down. The best strategy for both teams is certainly to not win games, as they are much better off tanking for a better draft pick. I know that doesn’t happen in the NFL like it does in the NBA, but I think we are starting to see the league trend more that way. We are definitely seeing a lot more action at the trade deadline than we have in the past.

The road team is always at a disadvantage in these games and the Raiders defense couldn’t be playing much worse. Oakland is dead last in the NFL against the run, giving up 144.7 ypg. San Francisco is 21st against the pass (275.5 ypg) and 13th against the run (102.9 ypg), but keep in mind they have played Arizona’s anemic offense twice. They also might be without linebacker Reuben Foster, corner Richard Sherman and safety Jaquiski Tartt. All of which are questionable to play.

The other key here is that these two teams have some decent talent on the offensive side of the ball. I think both teams have a realistic shot here of scoring somewhere between 27-34 points and all we need is for something like 27-20 to cash a winning ticket.

Lastly, there’s a great system in play. The Over is 64-29 (69%) over the last 10 seasons in non-conference games, where one team (49ers) is off a division loss by 7-points or less. Give me the Over 45!

50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 219)

I'll gladly take my chances here with the Kings and Grizzlies combining for at least 220 points. I think we are getting value here with Memphis coming off a dreadfully low-scoring game in their 92-84 win at Utah. Kings have combined for at least 238 points in all 4 games and have shot at least 50% from the field in every game. They are playing in the 2nd of a back-to-back, but this is a very young team and it's really early in the season, so I don't think it will effect their play at all. Opposing teams are shooting 51.5% against Sacramento, so Memphis will have no trouble getting their offense going. Give me the OVER 219! 

50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 227.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the OVER 227.5 in Tuesday's NBA action between the Kings and Nuggets. Denver has held each of their first 3 opponents under 100 points, which I believe is keeping this total much lower than it should be. I don't see the defensive effort being there for the Nuggets in a big time sandwich game. Denver is off a home win against the Warriors and have LeBron and the Lakers on deck Thursday night on TNT. Not to mention the Kings are the perfect team to back for the OVER. Sacramento is playing at the fastest pace in the league and are one of the worst in the league in defensive efficiency. Give me the OVER 227.5! 

50* TEXAS TECH/TCU BIG 12 TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Under 61) 

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 61 in Thursday's Big 12 clash between Texas Tech and TCU. I just think the public can’t help themselves when it comes to playing the OVER in games involving Texas Tech. So far it’s paid off great, as the OVER is 4-1 in the Red Raiders’ first 5 games. However, I believe the books know that’s where the money is going to come in and have inflated this number quite a bit. 

Last year TCU went on the road and beat Texas Tech 27-3 for a combined score of just 30 points, which was well below the posted total for that matchup of 54. The year before that we saw a ridiculous total of 87.5 and the game ended up 27-24 for a total of just 51.

I think it’s going to be the same old story in this one. This high-powered Texas Tech offense will be up against one of the best defenses in the country. TCU ranks 35th against the run (125.6 ypg) and are 23rd vs the pass (178.0 ypg). Gary Patterson knows how to slow down this Red Raiders attack and he’s had nearly two weeks to get his defense prepared. I also think the game being played at home is huge for TCU’s defense, as they should be able to feed off the crowd.

We also don’t know who is going to be at quarterback for the Red Raiders. Week 1 starter McLane Carter is questionable with an ankle injury and his replacement, Alan Bowman is doubtful after suffering a collapsed lung against West Virginia. I believe they end up going with Jett Duffey, who replaced Bowman vs West Virginia. I think that's going to be a problem for Texas Tech. Duffey is a much bigger threat with his legs than his arm and has already thrown 3 interceptions on just 36 attempts.

TCU is also dealing with an injury to their starting quarterback, as Shawn Robinson hurt his non-throwing shoulder in the final minutes against Iowa State. Patterson has said he will be available, but may not start. Regardless of who starts, the Horned Frogs are built to run the football and one of the reasons they were able to hold Texas Tech to just 3-points last year in Lubbock, is they ran it so effectively. TCU had 204 rushing yards compared to just 85 passing (only attempted 17 passes). Patterson knows that the best way to slow down this Red Raiders offense is to keep them on the sidelines.

It’s also worth noting the UNDER is 21-6 in the Horned Frogs last 27 conference games, 11-4 in their last 15 overall and a perfect 4-0 in their last 4 off a bye. UNDER is also 4-1 in Texas Tech’s last 5 road games and 4-1 in their last 5 vs conference foes. Give me the UNDER 61! 

50* SAINTS/REDSKINS MNF SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 52.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the UNDER 52.5 on the total. I think a lot of people are going to see that games involving the Saints this year have seen an average score of 64.4 ppg and the fact that these two combined for 65 points in last year’s meeting in New Orleans and just assume this thing is going to fly over the total.

Last year’s outcome was a bit of a fluke in terms of how many points were scored. The two teams were sitting on 40 midway through the 4th quarter. That was also late in the year with the Redskins dealing with some big injuries on the defensive side of the ball.

With Alex Smith replacing Kirk Cousins, the Redskins are much more balanced and conservative offense than the previous versions under Cousins who really relied on an aggressive passing attack. The numbers back this up, as Washington finished 28th in the league in rushing last year at 90.5 ypg. While it’s still really early, they are sitting 5th in the NFL in rushing in 2018 at 137.7 ypg. When your attack is built around the ground game, you typically see a lot longer possessions and it also keeps the defense fresh.

Speaking of the Redskins defense, Washington comes into this game ranked 7th in the NFL against the run (90.7 ypg) and 3rd agains the pass (187.3 ypg). They held Andrew Luck and the Colts to just 21 points and Aaron Rodgers and the Packers to only 17, so there’s a good chance this defense continues to shine.

As far as the Saints offense is concerned, their numbers are inflated quite a bit due to the fact that they got to play an atrocious Bucs defense and a depleted Falcons defense. I also think they are going to focus even more on the running game now that Mark Ingram is back from his 4-game suspension. I also think those struggles in the redzone that popped up last week against the Giants could play a big role in this thing staying under the mark. Give me the UNDER 52.5!

50* RAMS/VIKINGS VEGAS SHARP TOP PLAY (Over 49)

I'll gladly take my chances with the OVER 49 in Thursday's NFL showdown between the Vikings and Rams. I know last week’s Thursday night game was a defensive battle between the Jets and Browns, but it still came within 1-point of going OVER the total. These Thursday night games are typically higher scoring. Not only do teams have just 3 days to prepare, but their bodies only get 3 days to recover. Defense is all about energy and effort and players just aren’t flying around the field like they would be on normal rest.

It also helps having one of the best offensive teams in the league playing. The Rams are making it look easy on the offensive side of the ball and as good as the Vikings are defensively, I don’t see them slowing down this attack, especially on the road. Not to mention, I think Los Angeles will be out to send a message against this Minnesota defense that held them to just 7 points last year. Reminds me a lot of their second meeting against the Seahawks last year. The Rams scored just 10-points in a loss at home to Seattle in Week 5, only to put up 42 on them in Week 15.

The Vikings defense will be without stud defensive end Everson Griffen and that's a huge loss for that stop unit against an elite offense. 

As for Minnesota’s offense against the Rams defense. As bad as the Vikings looked offensively in that game against the Bills, that’s as bad as you will see them play on that side of the ball, probably the rest of the year. We also saw Los Angeles not look nearly as good on defense in their step up in competition after facing the Raiders and Cardinals the first two weeks. Philip Rivers threw for 2 scores and Melvin Gordon Rushed for 80 yards on just 15 carries, as the Charges amassed 356 yards.

The Rams are also dealing with some big injuries right now. Both Marcus Peters and Aqib Talib had to leave the game against the Chargers with ankle injuries. Both are out for this one and they will also be without linebacker Mark Barron. Kirk Cousins should be able to pick up big yards down the field and the Vikings will likely be forced to push the ball to try and keep pace with that Rams offense.

OVER is 30-15 in the Vikings last 45 games vs excellent passing teams that average 7.5+ yards per pass attempt and 13-3 in their last 16 road games vs elite teams that come in outscoring their opponents by 10+ points/game. Give me the OVER 49!

50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (OVER 39.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the OVER 39.5 in Thursday's NFL action that has the Browns hosting the Jets.  I just feel the number here is a bit of an overreaction to what we just saw. The Jets managed just 12 points in a game with the Dolphins that saw a combined 32 points and went well below the posted total of 43. Cleveland managed just 18 in a game with the Saints that saw 39 points to go well UNDER the total of 51.

While both of these offenses do have their limitations, I think we could see both teams score into the 20s in this one. The biggest factor here is this being a Thursday night game. It’s extremely hard on these NFL players to turn around and play a game with just 3 days of rest and it’s a big reason why we see a lot of high-scoring games in these Thursday games. So much of defense is effort and these guys are playing at less than 100%. Not to mention they also have 3 fewer days to prepare for the opposition.

The other thing for me is that both offenses moved the ball better than their scoring output would suggest. Cleveland had 327 yards against the Saints and the Jets had 362 against the Dolphins.

You also have to look at these two defenses and how they been able to rack up turnovers early on. After forcing 6 turnovers against the Steelers in Week 1, the Browns had 2 more against the Saints. The Jets force 5 in Week 1 on the road against the Lions and 2 more on Sunday against Miami. While turnovers can be drive killers, they can also lead to short fields and quick scores. I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw at least 1 defensive touchdown in this game.

We also have great OVER situations in play involving both teams. OVER is 31-9 over the last 5 seasons when you have a team (Browns) off a road cover where they lost outright as a dog in the month of September. OVER is also 42-16 over the last 10 years when you have a team off an upset loss as a home favorite in September. Give me the OVER 39.5! 

50* NCAAF 'SEC' TOTAL OF THE YEAR (Ole Miss/Alabama OVER 70) 

I'll gladly take my chances with the OVER 70 in Saturday's big SEC clash between Ole Miss and Alabama. For starters, these two teams have combined for at least 69 points in each of the last 3 meetings. Last time they played in Oxford, Alabama won 48-43 in a game that had a total of just 53. I know 70 points is a lot, but I just have a hard time seeing these two not reaching that mark.

This isn’t your typical Alabama offense that we have seen in the past under Nick Saban. Sophomore quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is the most gifted signal-caller Saban has had in his decade-plus run at Alabama. His ability to shred opposing secondaries, makes this unit almost impossible to stop. You still can’t stop the Crimson Tide from running the football, but if you load the box Tagovailoa is going to make you pay.

There might be some SEC teams that can hold them in check to some degree, but I certainly don’t think one of those is Ole Miss. The Rebels gave up 34.6 ppg last year and don’t look all that improved in 2018. They gave up 486 yards to Texas Tech in their opener and the Red Raiders had to replace their starting QB, leading rusher and 5 of their top 6 pass catchers. They followed that up by allowing 41 points and 629 yards to an FCS school.

I think Alabama has a great shot here of scoring 50 or more points and that means we need just a little bit of help from the Rebels to push this over the total. I know the Crimson Tide defense has looked great in their first two games, but there’s a ton of talent on the Ole Miss offense. Senior quarterback Jordan Ta’amu has been excellent and they got playmakers at both running back and receiver. I think they can have some success against an inexperienced Alabama defense that only returned 3 starers and who will be playing their first true road game.

OVER is 11-1 in the Rebels last 12 home games and 8-2 in their last 10 against a conference opponent. OVER is also 5-0 in Alabama’s last 5 games played in the month of September. Take the OVER 70.

50* NFL WEEK 1 TOTAL OF THE YEAR (Over 48) 

I'll likely be on a lot of OVERs in Chiefs' games this year. I think Kansas City's offense is going to light the NFL on fire with Mahomes and all those playmakers at his disposal. The key here is that they are going to be pressed into scoring a lot, because the defense could be a weakness, especially with Eric Berry sidelined (doubtful). KC isn't the only team in this fight that will be missing an elite defensive player. Joey Bosa is not going to play for the Chargers, who are already without defensive tackle Corey Liuget, as he serves a 4-game suspension. I look for both teams to move it up and down the field with a lot of big plays through the air that lead to quick scores and this one flying over the total. Give me the OVER 48! 

50* AMERICAN LEAGUE TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Under 8.5)

I'll gladly take my chances with the White Sox and Angles going UNDER the 8.5 total set here by the books. The Angels will have Felix Pena on the mound and he's got a 2.14 ERA in 6 road starts. White Sox will counter with their future ace in Carlos Rodon, who has a 2.89 ERA and 1.023 WHIP in 15 starts overall and a 2.23 ERA and 0.890 WHIP in 7 starts at home. Add in less than ideal conditions for scoring with winds blowing in from left at close to 15 mph and I don't see either offense doing much in this one. Give me the UNDER 8.5! 

50* NCAAF VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (OVER 64.5) 

Syracuse likes to push the tempo (Babers calls the plays and comes from Baylor’s uptempo attack under Art Briles) and should have their best offense in quite some time. Not only do the Orange get Dungey back, but they return their top 3 rushers, and 4 of 5 starters on the offensive line.

I think Western Michigan is going to have a really tough time slowing that offense down. The Broncos lose all 3 starters at linebacker (5 of 7 overall on the front 7) and star corner Darius Phillips.

Western Michigan is going to have no choice here but to try and go score for score with Syracuse and I think they are definitely capable of doing that. The Broncos have 8 starters back with most of their key pieces back and some talented guys ready to step in for those that departed. They put up 31 last year at USC in the opener last year and I think they eclipse that mark in this one.

The key here is Syracuse also lost a lot from their defense. The Orange lost their top 4 linebackers from last year and have just one career start on the roster at the position. In total, 5 of their top 7 tacklers are gone. Keep in mind this is a team that allowed 35.6 ppg and 485 ypg on the road last year and are just 4-14 in true road openers.

OVER is 10-2 in the Broncos last 12 home games and 12-2 in their last 14 at home in the first month of the season. Give me the OVER 64.5! 

50* MLB VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 9)

I'll gladly take my chances here with the UNDER 9 in Monday's action that has the Yankees hosting the White Sox. The public loves to back the OVER in Yankee games, especially at home, but I just don't see either offense being able to get much going in this one. Chicago will send out Carlos Rodon, who has a 2.05 ERA and 0.818 WHIP in his last 3 starts and now owns a 2.71 ERA in 13 starts overall. Yankees will counter with Masahiro Tanaka, who has allowed just 3 runs in his last 2 starts and owns a 2.23 ERA and 1.268 WHIP in 5 career starts against the White Sox. Take the UNDER! 

50* MLB VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 8) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the UNDER 8 in Saturday's NL East clash between the Braves and Marlins. These two teams combined for just 5 run in Atlanta's 5-0 win on Thursday and only 1 in Miami's 1-0 win on Friday. I look for both offenses to stay ice cold in this one. The Braves will turn to Animal Sanchez, who is 5-1 with a 3.00 ERA and 1.083 WHIP in 9 road starts. The Marlins will counter with Wei-Yin Chen, who has a 2.08 ERA and 0.807 WHIP in his last 3 starts and a 2.05 ERA in 10 starts overall at home this season. Give me the UNDER 8! 

50* MLB VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 8.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 8.5 in Friday's NL Central clash between the Pirates and Brewers. This total is simply too high for the starting pitching matchup. Pittsburgh will send out Joe Musgrave, who has a 2.18 ERA and 0.970 WHIP in 5 road starts and comes in with a solid 2.25 ERA in his last 3 starts. Milwaukee will send out Wade Miley, who has a strong 2.18 ERA in 9 starts overall in 2018 and a 2.38 ERA in 3 starts at home. Give me the UNDER 8.5!