|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|10-11-21||Colts v. Ravens UNDER 46.5||Top||25-31||Loss||-110||11 h 4 m||Show|
50* (NFL) - Colts/Ravens MNF MAX UNIT Top Play (Under 46.5)
I will take my chances with the UNDER 46.5 between the Ravens and Colts on Monday Night Football. Both offense figure to have a hard time putting up points on the board. Indy's offense is stuck in neutral with Carson Wentz. The Colts are averaging just 20.8 ppg, 326 ypg and 5.2 yard/play. Numbers that really look bad when you consider the 4 opponents they have played are giving up on average 26.3 ppg, 410 ypg and 6.2 yards/play.
Don't expect this Colts offense to figure it out on the road against a strong Ravens defense. Last two times out, Baltimore has held the Lions to 17 and the Broncos to 7.
On the flip side of this, the Colts defense is well suited to slow down Lamar Jackson and the Ravens offense. The biggest thing to slowing down Baltimore is keeping Jackson from running wild. Colts are built to do that. Indy comes in giving up just 331 ypg.
These two teams played last year and combined for just 34 points with a total of 47.5. UNDER has cashed in 9 of Wentz's last 14 starts. UNDER is also 19-5 in the Ravens last 14 at home off a win by 14 or more and 29-15 in Indy's last 44 off a win as a road dog. Give me the UNDER 46.5!
|10-05-21||Yankees v. Red Sox UNDER 8||Top||2-6||Push||0||10 h 19 m||Show|
50* (MLB) Yankees/Red Sox AL WILD CARD Top Play (UNDER 8)
I'll take my chances with the UNDER 8 in Tuesday's AL Wild Card matchup between the Yankees and Red Sox. I think we are getting some value with the number here because of how poor the two starters performed down the stretch.
New York's Gerrit Cole has a 7.65 ERA and 1.585 WHIP in his last 3 starts. It wasn't much better for Boston's Nathan Eovaldi in his last 3, as he posted a 6.58 ERA and 1.609 WHIP.
I just don't think you can overreact to those numbers. Cole is a guy that has been outstanding in the playoffs since leaving the Pirates. He had a 2.95 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in 3 playoff starts last year and a 1.72 ERA and 0.87 WHIP in 5 starts with the Astros in 2019.
We don't have the same long-term track record with Eovaldi. He's only made 2 postseason starts and both came back in 2018. The stage wasn't too big for him then, as he had 1.61 ERA and 0.81 WHIP in 22 1/3 innings in those 2 outings. Eovaldi has a 3.39 ERA and 1.114 WHIP in 19 home starts and 3.33 ERA and 1.057 WHIP in 13 career starts vs the Yankees. New York also comes into this game having just scored a mere 5 runs at home in that massive 3-game series at home against the Rays.
You also have to factor in this being the playoffs and managers not letting a guy go too deep in the game. Any signs of trouble and he's getting the guy out of there.
Weather should also help keep this total low, as it's only going to be in the low 60s for this game with whatever wind there is blowing in from left field. Give me the UNDER 8!
|10-04-21||Raiders v. Chargers OVER 51.5||Top||14-28||Loss||-101||9 h 28 m||Show|
50* (NFL) - Raiders/Chargers MNF Vegas Insider TOP PLAY (Over 51.5)
I think the game itself is a coin flip, and there's just no value with the spread at Chargers -3. Good news is I do think we are getting a pretty good price here on the total. I see both offenses being able to move the ball at will in this one and just don't think 51.5 is near enough.
These are two of the Top 3 passing offenses in the NFL. Derek Carr and the Raiders lead the league at 379.5 ypg. The next best is Brady and the Bucs at 327.5 ypg. The Chargers are 3rd at 307.3 ypg.
I know we are just 3 games into the season, but there's no reason to doubt the big offensive numbers by Carr and the Raiders. It's not like they have paid cupcakes. They have played one of the best defenses in the league in the Steelers (on the road) and two above average units in the Ravens and Dolphins.
Carr threw for 382 yards on 28 of 37 passing against Pittsburgh. In the Steelers 3 other games they have held Josh Allen to 270 yards, Joe Burrow to 172 and Aaron Rodgers to 248.
While it's a little different story for Herbert and the Chargers, who have faced 3 of the worst defenses in the Football Team, Cowboys and Chiefs, they pass the eye test for me. Herbert is a top tier QB in this league.
I also think they are facing another bad defense in the Raiders. Las Vegas is giving up just 24.0 ppg, but it's come against teams who on the season only average 19.5 ppg. I think them giving up 28 points at home to the Dolphins with a backup QB says a lot. They also gave up 330 yards to that awful Steelers offense. Herbert is by far the best QB they have faced in terms of passing and it's not really close.
I think you can't ignore last year's games between these two teams. Both games finished with a combined score of 57 points. OVER is 6-2 in the Raiders last 8 on the road and 8-1 in their last 9 as a dog. Give me the OVER 51.5!
|09-27-21||Eagles v. Cowboys OVER 51.5||Top||21-41||Win||100||10 h 15 m||Show|
50* (NFL) Eagles/Cowboys MNF Vegas INSIDER (Over 51.5)
I'll take my chances with the OVER 51.5 in Monday Night Football. Big NFC East matchup with the Cowboys hosting the Eagles. The OVER has been cashing left and right in these prime time games, outside of the Panthers/Texans game this past Thursday (HOU had backup rookie QB and CAR lost McCaffrey early).
I just don't think the number here is enough for this Cowboys team. Dallas without question has one of the most explosive offenses in the league and I just don't think there's a defense out there that can keep them in check. I know they only had 20 points in their win at the Chargers in Week 2, but that was more of them just playing keep away from Herbert and that Chargers offense.
I don't think they are going to play conservative here at home against the Eagles. Philly's defense has looked pretty good in their two games, but they have faced Matt Ryan and the Falcons and Jimmy G and the 49ers. The strength of this defense has been their d-line.
Not only does Dallas have better weapons in the passing game, they got an o-line that can more than hold their own. If Dak gets time, he will expose this Eagles secondary.
On the flip side, I still don't have much faith in this Cowboys defense. Not only are they missing one of their best players in Demarcus Lawrence, they got all kinds of guys out for this game, especially on the d-line. Their depth is really going to be tested in this game.
I look for Jalen Hurts to step up and go toe-to-toe with Prescott. I think they number in this game should be pushing 55. Give me the OVER 51.5!
|09-26-21||Ravens v. Lions OVER 49.5||Top||19-17||Loss||-110||73 h 33 m||Show|
50* (NFL) - Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Over 49.5)
I was shocked to see this total less than 50. The Lions are awful defensively and we have seen time after time this Ravens offense light it up with Lamar Jackson against bad teams. I know Jackson is questionable with an illness, but everything I've read is that he will be on the field Sunday.
I'm confident we are going to get 30+ from the Ravens in this one and a good chance they hit the 40-point mark. That means all we need is 20-25 from the Lions to cash this ticket. I know Detroit only had 17 in their MNF loss to Green Bay, but they just couldn't get anything going in the 2nd half.
The Ravens are a good defensive team, but they are a team that likes to blitz a lot, so I feel pretty good about Goff and that Lions offense having a few good drives in this game. You also have to factor in the perfect conditions playing in a dome. Give me the OVER 49.5!
|09-23-21||Marshall v. Appalachian State UNDER 60.5||Top||30-31||Loss||-110||34 h 1 m||Show|
50* (CFB) Marshall/App State MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 60.5)
I saw this total start to climb early in the week and quickly grabbed the UNDER 60.5 as soon as I saw the first book go back the other way (why it's so important to be a long-term client, so you get the play as soon as it's published and don't miss out on better numbers).
I just don't see these two teams going up and down the field the way you need to eclipse a number like this. It's really a prime example of how much more people focus on a team's offensive numbers than their defense.
Marshall is averaging 43.7 ppg and 604 ypg. Impressive. However, they have played Navy, NC Central and East Carolina. They should have great numbers. It's going to be a whole lot tougher against a very good Appalachian State defense. The Mountaineers are giving up just 18.0 ppg and 349 ypg. That's with them playing a road game at Miami, FL.
It's similar on the other side. Appalachian State is averaging 33.3 ppg and 446 ypg, but are actually underperforming if you take into account the teams they have faced are giving up on average 36.4 ppg and 480 ypg. The Mountaineers are also a team that wants to run the ball, which is great for eating up the clock. Marshall's defense has also been pretty good, giving up just 19.7 ppg and 379 ypg.
I also think you got to put some decent stock into last year's game between these two teams, which ended in a 17-7 Marshall win. The Herd ran it 45 times to just 25 passes and App State had 33 carries. Books were way off on that one too, as the total was 59.5. Give me the UNDER 60.5!
|09-22-21||Blue Jays v. Rays OVER 9||Top||1-7||Loss||-101||5 h 60 m||Show|
50* (MLB) - AL EAST Total PLAY OF THE MONTH (Over 9)
I think we easily see double-digit runs on the board in today's early matchup between the Blue Jays and Rays. This is just not a great pitching matchup. Toronto is going with an Opener in reliever Julian Merryweather, while Tampa Bay sends out Luis Patino.
Merryweather might only go 1 inning here, as he just threw in relief on Monday and was also in action last Friday. You never know what you are going to get on a bullpen day. With that said, I'll take my chances the Rays find a way to put up 4+ runs in this one.
Toronto should also score 4+ and I think we could more than that. Blue Jays have crushed right handed pitching and Patino comes in with a 6.92 ERA and 1.769 WHIP in his last 3 starts. He's got a mere 4.96 ERA and 1.408 WHIP in 14 starts overall. Give me the OVER 9!
|09-20-21||Lions v. Packers OVER 48.5||Top||17-35||Win||100||10 h 14 m||Show|
50* (NFL) - Lions/Packers MAX UNIT Top Play (OVER 48.5)
I'm going with the OVER 48.5 on Monday Night Football. I know some of the Lions' scoring against the 49ers came in the final minutes of regulation, but I was impressed with the unit. Jared Goff was way better than I anticipated. He had 338 yards and 3 scores. Detroit also ran for 116 yards and 4.8 yards/carry.
They now face a Packers defense that had no answer for Jameis Winston and the Saints offense. New Orleans played keep away from Rogers and put up an impressive 5.4 yards/play. That same Saints offense could only put up 128 total yards and 3.0 yards/play this past Sunday against the Panthers.
This too me all comes down to the Packers offense. I got some concerns, but I also think it's pretty safe to say that Rodgers and company will be a lot better than what they showed in Week 1.
Detroit doesn't figure to be very good on that side of the ball. They let SF do whatever they wanted and that same 49ers offense really struggled on Sunday against the Eagles.
Last year these two teams combined for 63 in the game at GB and 55 in the matchup in Detroit. Give me the OVER 48.5!
|09-18-21||Boston College v. Temple OVER 56.5||Top||28-3||Loss||-110||68 h 56 m||Show|
50* (CFB) - Sharp Money TOTAL OF THE MONTH (OVER 56.5)
I think the fact that BC lost starting quarterback Phil Jurkovec to injury has created some big time value on the OVER in Saturday's game against Temple. I just don't think the drop off to backup Dennis Grosel is as big as people might think. Grosel came in relief of Jurkovec in last week's 45-28 win over UMass and completed 11 of 14 for 199 yards.
There's also last year's season finale at Virginia, where Grosel got the start for an inured Jurkovec. He was 32 of 46 (69.6%) for 520 yards and 4 scores. I don't see the Owls having any kind of answer for this BC passing attack.
Don't be fooled by Temple's defense in their first two games. While they held Rutgers to just 365 total yards, the Scarlet Knights put up 61 on the Owls. Even an awful Akron team that didn't score a point until the 4th quarter against Auburn was able to put up 24 points. Let's also not forget that same Rutgers offense that shredded Temple had just 17 points and 195 total yards in their game against Syracuse last week.
It's not out of the question here that BC could put up a 50 spot. I certainly think they can get to at least 40. That means we just need a little bit out of this Temple offense to cash a winner.
I think they can. Boston College's defense isn't anything special. If UMass can score 28 against them, so can Temple. My numbers have this game at 64.5. That's a full 8 points of value we are getting. Give me the OVER 56.5!
|09-16-21||Giants v. Washington Football Team OVER 40.5||Top||29-30||Win||100||34 h 32 m||Show|
50* (NFL) - Thursday Night Football VEGAS INSIDER (Over 40.5)
I will gladly take my chances with the OVER 40.5 on Thursday Night Football in Week 2. Most are going to look at this matchup between NFC East rivals Washington and New York and think it will be low scoring.
Neither team was able to reach 20 points in Week 1, as the Football Team lost 16-20 at home, while the Giants scored just 13 in their 14-point loss at home to the Broncos.
Not only that, Washington lost starting quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick to a hip injury that will have him sidelined 6-8 weeks.
What will get overlook, as it does every year, is the difficulty that comes with playing on just 3 days rest. It's an absolutely brutal turnaround for NFL teams to play on Sunday and then have to play on Thursday. It's just not enough time for these guys to recover.
I believe that really has a negative impact on the defensive side of the ball. So much of what makes a great defense is energy and effort. Both teams figure to be lacking that.
I also don't think these offenses are as bad as people think. While the Giants only scored 13 points, they were able to move the football against a really good Denver defense. New York had 314 yards and 19 first downs. They had 4 drives inside Denver territory that didn't result in any points.
Washington's defense held the Chargers to 20 points. However, I think their defense is a bit overrated. They got a really good player in Chase Young, but as a whole their more middle of the pack in my eyes. LA did have 424 yards and 27 first downs in that game.
As for the Washington offense and the Fitzpatrick injury, I don't think there's a huge drop off from Fitzpatrick to backup Taylor Heinicke. A number of guys on the Football Team voiced their vote for Heinicke to be the starting QB this year.
All we basically need is for 5 TDs to be scored in this game. That should get us to 35. You got to think there's at least 2 field goals, which would put us to 41. Give me the OVER 40.5!
|09-15-21||Rays v. Blue Jays UNDER 9||Top||3-6||Push||0||5 h 6 m||Show|
50* (MLB) AL East Total PLAY OF THE MONTH (Under 9)
I love the UNDER 9 in tonight's big AL East matchup between the Rays and Blue Jays. There was little to no offense in the series opener last night. Tampa Bay won the game 2-0 and the two teams combined for a mere 9 hits. Toronto had scored 8 or more with at least 11 hits on their own in each of their previous 4 games.
It just speaks to how good this Rays pitching staff is. Everything sets up for a similar low-scoring game on Wednesday. Toronto will have Cy Young contender Robbie Ray on the mound. Ray has a 2.69 ERA and 1.033 WHIP in 28 starts with 220 K's in 170 1/3 innings. He's also got a great 1.95 ERA in 9 day starts this season.
Michael Wacha will get the nod for Tampa Bay. His overall numbers aren't great, but he's really been throwing it well of late. Wacha has a 2.35 ERA and 0.718 WHIP in his last 3 outings. He's just got to give us 5-6 and the Rays pen will do the rest. Give me the UNDER 9!
|09-13-21||Ravens v. Raiders UNDER 50.5||Top||27-33||Loss||-110||33 h 32 m||Show|
50* (NFL) - Ravens/Raiders MNF MAX UNIT Top Play (Under 50.5)
I think the best bet on Monday Night Football is the UNDER 50.5. I just don't see this game getting into the 50s.
Baltimore might have a MVP quarterback in Lamar Jackson, but this is a run-first team. They were 1st in rushing in 2020 (191.9 ypg) and dead last in passing (171.2 ypg). I know Lamar might throw more out of necessity with all the injuries the Ravens have had at RB, but that's not playing to his strength.
I also think that Baltimore offense is going up against an improved Raiders defense that has had several big additions at all 3 levels of the defense. They also are getting a new look under new defensive coordinator Gus Bradley. Not to mention this should be an electric atmosphere in Las Vegas' new stadium with fans for the first time in a prime time game. That will fuel that defense.
Baltimore did lose a top level corner in Marcus Peters, but they got some solid depth in the secondary and really bring back the entire core from last year's unit that ranked 6th against the pass and 8th against the run.
The Raiders got some nice weapons at the skill positions and an okay QB in Carr, but I got big time concerns with an offensive line that will have 4 new starters after they traded away 3 of their best linemen in center Rodney Hudson, right tackle Trent Brown and right guard Gabe Jackson. I think they are in trouble against that front 7 of Baltimore. Give me the UNDER 50.5!
|09-09-21||Cowboys v. Bucs OVER 51||Top||29-31||Win||100||82 h 30 m||Show|
50* (NFL) - Thursday Night Football VEGAS INSIDER (Over 51)
I just don't love the side in this game. I don't trust Dallas, but don't want to lay it with Tampa Bay either. The better bet in this game is on the total and for these two go OVER the number of 51.
It's really a no-brainer if you ask me. You got two of the most talented offensive teams in the NFL going head-to-head.
Tom Brady and the Bucs offense got off to a slow start in 2020, but it didn't last long. After scoring a mere 3-points against the Saints in early November, Tampa Bay put up at least 24 points in each of their last 11 games, scoring 30+ in each of their 4 playoff games.
The Bucs have their entire offense back. They finished last year 7th in total offense and 3rd in scoring. They should be even better the second go around together.
It also doesn't hurt they will be facing one of the least talented defenses in the league in the Cowboys. Nothing Dallas did in the offseason screams they are going to be improved.
It's going to be up to Dak Prescott and the offense to outscore teams to win. Something they are more than capable of doing. Dallas has a plethora of talent at wide receiver. While they have mentioned wanting to run more to help the defense, their strength is throwing the football.
They also aren't going to have a choice against this Bucs defense. TB also brings everyone back on defense and last year they led the league in run defense, giving up 80.6 ypg.
Even if the Cowboy's offense gets off to a slow start, they are built to play from behind and can score in the blink of an eye. I see a final score of something along the lines of TB 38 - DAL 28. That's more than two TDs than the number we are playing. Give me the OVER 51!
|09-08-21||Dodgers v. Cardinals UNDER 8.5||Top||4-5||Loss||-110||10 h 7 m||Show|
50* (MLB) - National League TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Under 8.5)
I will gladly take my chances with the UNDER 8.5 in Wednesday's game between the Dodgers and Cardinals. This is a huge series for both teams. LA is trying to overtake SF in the NL West and St Louis is just 3.5-games back of the Padres for a Wild Card berth.
Some might be hesitant to take the UNDER with how good the Dodgers are offensively and LA not having one of their top guys on the mound. That's where we find the value with this play, as I don't see either being a problem.
The Cardinals will have Adam Wainwright on the mound, who is having a remarkable season at the age of 40 (turned 40 on Aug. 30th). He's 14-7 with a 2.91 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 27 starts. It's not just his age that makes this improbable, he hasn't had a season with an ERA under 3 since 2015. He's certainly not showing any fatigue down the stretch, as he's got a 0.42 ERA and 0.609 WHIP in his last 3 starts.
The Dodgers will have Mitch White on the mound. He's made 3 starts and has a pretty poor 5.73 ERA and 1.545 WHIP. The key here is that this is a plus matchup for him against a Cardinals offense that fails to produce more times than not. St Louis has scored a mere 3 runs in the first 2 games of this series and have scored 3 or fewer in 6 of their last 9. Give me the UNDER 8.5!
|09-04-21||San Jose State v. USC UNDER 60||Top||7-30||Win||100||51 h 55 m||Show|
50* (CFB) - Non Conf TOTAL OF THE WEEK (UNDER 60)
I really like the UNDER 60 in Saturday's non-conference matchup between USC and San Jose State. The total here is suggesting a shootout, but I'm not convinced that will be the case.
I know USC has a really good quarterback in Kedon Slovis, but he's got a lot of new faces it receiver. He gets back his top guy in Drake London, but his second and third favorite targets are gone and two guys that were expected to start are not expected to be available for this game.
You also have to look at what they will be going up against. San Jose State went 7-1 and won the MWC title behind the play of their defense. The Spartans only gave up 19.9 ppg and 346 ypg last year and have 10 of their 11 starters back.
If they can just keep USC from going off for 40+, it's going to be hard for this to get to 60. That's because the Trojans are absolutely loaded on the defensive side of the ball, especially up front on the defensive line and at linebacker.
For San Jose State to score, they are going to have to have a ton of big plays in the passing game. I just don't see it. They get back starting QB Nick Starkel, but he's got to make due without his top two targets from last year in Bailey Gaither and Tre Walker. Those two had 86 catches for 1,352 yards and 8 scores. Give me the UNDER 60!
|09-03-21||North Carolina v. Virginia Tech UNDER 64||Top||10-17||Win||100||29 h 52 m||Show|
50* (CFB) UNC/Va Tech ACC PLAY OF THE MONTH (Under 64)
I will take the UNDER 64 in Friday's ACC showdown between North Carolina and Virginia Tech. I think there's a couple factors that have the number here way too high. One of those being how high scoring last year's game was. The Tar Heels won 56-45 as the two put up over 100 points.
The other is the perception of UNC and how potent are thinking their offense will be with Sam Howell back under center (talk he might be the No. 1 pick in next year's NFL Draft).
I just don't see a repeat of last year. You got to remember that Va Tech had a number of defensive guys miss time because of injury or covid. They also were in the midst of a transition from legendary defensive coordinator Bud Williams. New offensive coordinator Justin Hamilton was behind the 8-ball from the get go. I wouldn't be surprised if the Hokies shaved over a TD off their 32.1 ppg they allowed last year.
I also look at UNC's defense as being much improved. Tar Heels got 10 starters back from a very young unit that suffered through some growing pains. They got the size and speed to be one of the best defenses in Chapel Hill in more than a decade.
As for Howell and the Tar Heels offense, there's no denying Howell's talents. It's not him that has me concerned about the UNC offense. It's the fact that the Tar Heels lost two 1,000 yards rushers, as well as their top two receivers (combined 1,783 yards, 14 TDs). I don't see this offense being near as potent in 2021, especially not early in the year. Give me the UNDER 64!
|09-02-21||South Florida v. NC State OVER 58.5||Top||0-45||Loss||-110||27 h 20 m||Show|
50* (CFB) - Big Money MAX UNIT Top Play (OVER 58.5)
I love the OVER 58.5 in Thursday's matchup that has NC State hosting USF. I would be shocked if these two teams failed to hit 60 in this one.
NC State is going to have a potent offense in 2021. I really like sophomore quarterback Devin Leary. He only made 3 starts last year before being lost for the season. He threw for 890 yards with a 8-2 TD/INT ratio in those 3 starts. They got everyone back at the skill positions and a veteran offensive line.
That offense will be up against a Bulls defense that has a lot of question marks. South Florida couldn't stop anybody last year. They gave up 39.9 ppg and 441 ypg. That's with them holding the Citadel to a mere 6-points on 284 yards. They gave up over 200 ypg and 5.0 ypc against the run and opposing QBs completed 60% of their attempts.
The big key here is I think USF is going to be able to put up a decent amount of points as well. Even with 10 starters back on defense, I got big time concerns with the Wolfpack on that side of the ball. They gave up 40+ points 4 times.
As for the Bulls offense, I think they are going to be one of the most improved units in the country after averaging just 23.1 ppg and 365 ypg last year. They got one of the rising stars at OC in Charlie Weis Jr. The problem last year is it was the first year under a new staff and their just wasn't the proper time to implant the offense with the pandemic. We saw a bit of a flash of their potential in last year's finale, as they put up 46 points and nearly 650 yards (646) in a game against UCF. Give me the OVER 58.5!
|09-01-21||Red Sox v. Rays UNDER 8||Top||3-2||Win||100||22 h 1 m||Show|
50* (MLB) - AL East PLAY OF THE WEEK (UNDER 8)
I'll gladly take my chances with the UNDER 8 in Wednesday's AL East showdown between the Rays and Red Sox. I just think we are getting a great number with 8 given the starting pitching matchup.
Boston will send out Chris Sale, who outside of not pitching deep in games, has been really good over his first 3 starts in 2021. Sale has a 2.35 ERA and 1.044 WHIP. He's also got a 2.48 xFIP, so there's nothing fluky about those numbers.
Tampa Bay will counter with Drew Rasmussen. He too hasn't made many starts. This will be just the 6th start of the season for Rasmussen. However, he's got a strong 2.50 ERA and 0.778 WHIP in 5 starts. He's also made 4 of those 5 starts on the road (didn't give up a run in his lone home start). Give me the UNDER 8!
|08-26-21||White Sox v. Blue Jays UNDER 8.5||Top||10-7||Loss||-115||5 h 18 m||Show|
50* (MLB) - Thursday Big Money MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 8.5)
I will gladly take my chances with the UNDER 8.5 in Thursday's game between the Blue Jays and White Sox. We cashed this exact same bet last night with these two teams. I just don't see why we would expect anything but another lower scoring game.
The first 3 games have all seen 7 or fewer runs. Toronto won 2-1 on Monday and 3-1 yesterday. Chicago won the second game 5-2. Tonight it's Carlos Rodon going for the White Sox and Hyun-Jin Ryu for the Blue Jays.
Rodon is 9-5 with a 2.38 ERA and 0.957 WHIP in 19 starts this season. He does have a very mediocre 4.15 ERA in his last 3 starts, but was at his best in his last outing, tossing 5 scoreless innings, giving up just 2 hits and racking up 11 K's.
Ryu is 12-6 with a 3.54 ERA and 1.150 WHIP in 24 starts. He's got an even more ugly 5.82 ERA in his last 3 starts. However, he too is coming off a great outing. Ryu just pitched 7 scoreless in his last start. Give me the UNDER 8.5!
|08-25-21||White Sox v. Blue Jays UNDER 8.5||Top||1-3||Win||100||21 h 35 m||Show|
50* (MLB) - Wednesday Big Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Under 8.5)
I'll gladly take my chances with the UNDER 8.5 in Wednesday's big AL showdown between the Blue Jays and White Sox. Each of the first two games have been low scoring. Toronto won 2-1 on Monday and Chicago won 5-2 on Tuesday.
All signs point to more struggles offensively with the starting pitching matchup on Wednesday. White Sox will have the red-hot Lucas Giolito on the mound, while the Blue Jays counter with one of their best starters in Robbie Ray.
Giolito has had his fair share of clunkers this season, but overall it's been pretty good. He's got a 3.77 ERA and 1.101 WHIP in 25 starts. He's got a 2.37 ERA and 0.737 WHIP with 24 K's in 19 innings over his last 3 starts.
Ray is 9-4 with a 2.79 ERA and 1.039 WHIP in 24 starts. His ERA is even better at 2.64 in 12 home starts and he's got a sensational 1.29 ERA and 0.714 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Give me the UNDER 8.5!
|08-24-21||Tigers v. Cardinals UNDER 8||Top||4-3||Win||100||20 h 26 m||Show|
50* (MLB) - Tuesday Big Money MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 8)
I'll take my chances with the UNDER 8 in Tuesday's interleague matchup that has the Cardinals hosting the Tigers. I think the total here should be 7.5 at the most and even then I would still be looking to back the UNDER. There's no debate on it at 8.
This is a really good starting pitching matchup. St Louis will have Jack Flaherty on the mound and he's been incredible in his two starts since coming back from injury. He allowed just 2 hits over 6 scoreless innings at the Royals in his first start and then gave up just 2 runs (both solo HR) in 6 innings at home against the Brewers. He's now 4-0 with a 1.74 ERA and 0.742 WHIP in 5 home starts this season.
Detroit counters with Casey Mize, who is a classic case of a guy that just gets overlooked because of how bad his team is. Mize is a very respectable 6-6 with a 3.69 ERA and 1.166 WHIP in 23 starts this season. Definitely helps the Cardinals aren't exactly swinging the bats well, as they have scored 4 or fewer in 5 of their last 6 games. Give me the UNDER 8!
|08-19-21||Patriots v. Eagles UNDER 38.5||Top||35-0||Win||100||20 h 22 m||Show|
50* (NFLX) - Pats/Eagles Thursday Night VEGAS INSIDER (UNDER 38.5)
I think we are getting some great value with the UNDER at 38.5. I know both of these teams played in relatively high-scoring games in their first preseason matchups, but the Eagles only managed 16 points against the Steelers and all of those came in the 1st half. Patriots game with Washington was just 9-7 going into the 4th quarter.
It's also worth noting that these two teams have been doing some joint practices leading up to this game. With limited playbooks in the preseason, both defenses should be at an advantage. Give me the UNDER 38.5!
|08-18-21||Mariners v. Rangers UNDER 9||Top||3-1||Win||100||10 h 28 m||Show|
50* (MLB) - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER Top Play (UNDER 9)
I'll take my chances with the UNDER 9 in Wednesday's game between the Rangers and Mariners. Yesterday we played and won with Seattle on the money line. I wanted to fire back with the Mariners, but I don't want to bet against Texas' Mike Foltynewicz. I think with him on the mound, the value has shifted to the UNDER.
Foltynewicz is just 2-11 with a 5.66 ERA over 23 starts. Not great. However, he's been really good of late. He has a 3.00 ERA and 0.944 WHIP over his last 3 starts. The most recent coming on the road against these same Mariners, where he held Seattle to just 3 runs over 7 innings.
Mariners will have Marco Gonzales on the mound. He too has been lights out down the stretch. Gonzales has a 0.83 ERA and 0.600 WHIP over his last 3 starts. Give me the UNDER 9!
|08-03-21||Giants v. Diamondbacks UNDER 9.5||Top||1-3||Win||100||12 h 3 m||Show|
50* (MLB) NL West TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Under 9.5)
I love the UNDER 9.5 in Tuesday's NL West showdown between the Giants and Diamondbacks. We got an old school starting pitching matchup, as veterans Johnny Cueto and Madison Bumgarner face off.
One big difference is Bumgarner isn't on the mound for San Francisco. This will be just the second time he's faced off against his former team. You know he wants to pitch well.
Bumgarner returned after the All-Star break after nearly a month away. He's been on top of his game, posting a 2.00 ERA and 0.833 WHIP in 3 starts. Cueto has also made 3 starts since the All-Star break and he's got a 2.30 ERA and 0.30 WHIP. Give me the UNDER 9.5!
|07-27-21||A's v. Padres UNDER 8.5||Top||4-7||Loss||-100||12 h 4 m||Show|
50* (MLB) - Late Night NO LIMIT Top Play (Under 8.5)
I love the UNDER 8.5 in tonight's interleague showdown between the A's and Padres. While it's going to be extremely hot at several ballparks today, it's going to be pretty mild at Petco Park when this game goes off. Temps are expected to be in the low 70s with the wind blowing in at close to 10 mph from left field.
You also have to look at how these two offenses come into this game. The A's are averaging just 3.7 runs/game and hitting .222 as a team over their last 7. The Padres are even worse, averaging just 3.4 runs/game and hitting .193 as a team in their last 7.
It's also not a bad pitching matchup. Oakland's James Kaprielian has a 2.65 ERA and 1.117 WHIP in 12 starts. While San Diego's Chris Paddack has a not so great 4.77 ERA and 1.271 WHIP in 18 starts, his xFIP is a mere 3.78, which suggests he's been much better the the numbers show. Give me the UNDER 8.5!
|07-25-21||White Sox v. Brewers UNDER 7.5||Top||3-1||Win||100||10 h 50 m||Show|
50* (MLB) Sunday Night Baseball VEGAS INSIDER (Under 7.5)
I'll take my chance with the UNDER 7.5 in tonight's Sunday Night Baseball showdown between the White Sox and Brewers. Two really good starters take the mound in this one. Chicago will turn to Lance Lynn, while Brandon Woodruff goes for Milwaukee.
Lynn is 9-3 with a 1.94 ERA and 1.034 WHIP in 17 starts. He's coming into this game in great form too, as he has a 1.42 ERA and 1.158 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Woodruff is 7-4 with a 2.04 ERA and 0.832 WHIP in 19 starts he's got a 2.14 ERA in 9 home starts. Give me the UNDER 7.5!
|07-20-21||Suns v. Bucks UNDER 222.5||Top||98-105||Win||100||22 h 20 m||Show|
50* (NBA) - Suns/Bucks Game 6 MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 222.5)
As much as I wanted to go take the points with Phoenix here, the Suns have burnt me the last two games of this series. I also think the much stronger play in this one is the OVER. While these two teams combined for 242 in Game 5, Milwaukee had one of the greatest team shooting games in NBA Finals history. They couldn't miss in the 2nd and 3rd quarter. Phoenix was also on fire, as they shot 55.2% from the field.
Look for the shooting to cool off in the first elimination game of the series. Phoenix must win to force a Game 7, so we know they are going to give everything they got defensively. While Milwaukee is up, this game is huge for them too. They don't want this to go to a Game 7. Give me the UNDER 222.5!
|07-06-21||Red Sox v. Angels UNDER 8.5||Top||3-5||Win||100||12 h 10 m||Show|
50* (MLB) - Red Sox/Angels MAX UNIT Top Play (Under 8.5)
I love the UNDER 8.5 in Tuesday's showdown between the Red Sox and Angles. Two of the AL's top starters will be on the mound in this one. Boston will send out Nathan Eovaldi, who is 9-4 with a 3.32 ERA and 1.188 WHIP in 17 starts. He's been lights out of late, posting a 1.93 ERA in his last 3 starts. In just his last two outings, he's given up a mere 1 ER in 14 2/3 innings.
LA will counter with Shohei Ohtani, who is 3-1 with a 3.60 ERA and 1.266 WHIP in 12 starts. Ohtani has been at his best at home this season, where he owns a sensational 1.73 ERA and 1.266 WHIP in 7 starts. Give me the UNDER 8.5!
|06-25-21||Hawks v. Bucks UNDER 226||Top||91-125||Win||100||11 h 1 m||Show|
50* (NBA) Hawks/Bucks MAX UNIT Top Play (Under 226)
I think we are getting a really great price on the UNDER (226) in Game 2 of the Eastern Conference Finals. While Game 1 went over the total of 223.5 in the Hawks 116-113 win, it didn't get their by much.
That was with some really big offensive performances by both teams. Trae Young had a game-high 48. He's getting all the praise and rightfully so, but John Collins had a monster game with 23 points and 15 boards. For the Bucks, they got 34 from Antetokoumpo and 33 from Holiday.
We know we are going to get the best Milwaukee has to offer on the defensive side to avoid going down 0-2 before Game 3 in Atlanta. You also got to think that both teams will make some adjustments to slow the other team down. Give me the UNDER 226!
|06-17-21||Rays v. Mariners UNDER 8.5||Top||5-6||Loss||-104||11 h 52 m||Show|
50* (MLB) - Over/Under PLAY OF THE MONTH (Under 8.5)
I absolutely love the UNDER 8.5 in Thursday's late night action that has the Rays visiting the Mariners. There's a lot to like with both starters going in this one.
Tampa Bay's Rich Hill has a strong 3.37 ERA in 13 stats, but has been even better than that of late with a 2.45 ERA in his last 3 starts. It's also worth pointing out that in Hill's last 4 road starts he's given up a whopping 1 run on 9 hits in 22 innings of work.
Justin Dunn will counter for Seattle and he's quietly having a strong season. Dunn has a 3.91 ERA in 10 starts. He's also been lights out at home with a 2.95 ERA and 1.265 WHIP in 4 home starts. Not only is Dunn throwing well, but TB's hitters may be a bit off here with the travel from Chicago all the way out west to Seattle. Give me the UNDER 8.5!
|06-12-21||Rockies v. Reds OVER 9||Top||3-10||Win||100||7 h 44 m||Show|
50* (MLB) Saturday SHARP MONEY Top Play (OVER 9)
We cashed the OVER 9 in Friday's series opener between these two teams as they combined for 16 in Cincinnati's 11-5 win. That's now two straight games Colorado has given up 11 runs and the 6th time in their last 8 games they have allowed 6 or more runs.
I know we got two decent starters going in German Marquez and Wade Miley, but it's going to be absolute brutal pitching conditions today with the heat index pushing 100 degrees and little to no wind (4 mph). Add in how the ball already flies out of Great American Ball Park, and it just doesn't seem like much for these two teams to hit double-digits. Give me the OVER 9!
|06-09-21||Yankees v. Twins OVER 8.5||Top||9-6||Win||100||11 h 56 m||Show|
50* (MLB) - Wednesday MAX UNIT Top Play (OVER 8.5)
I love the OVER 8.5 in Wednesday's game between the Twins/Yankees. Minnesota will have Randy Dobak on the mound. After not giving up a run in 6 innings in his first start at Cleveland, Dobak has allowed 9 runs on 17 hits and 3 walks in his last 2 starts.
Yankees will have Gerrit Cole on the mound. While Cole is a big nam,e and has been pretty good so far in 2021, he just gave up 5 runs in 5 innings in his last start. I think his struggles could be part of him stopping using whatever illegal substance he was using. He's also facing a hot Twins lineup that has racked up 10+ hits in 4 of their last 5 games. Play the OVER 8.5!
|06-07-21||Nuggets v. Suns UNDER 220.5||Top||105-122||Loss||-101||12 h 25 m||Show|
50* (NBA) - Monday MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 220.5)
I'm going to take my chances with the UNDER 220.5 in Game 1 between the Nuggets/Suns. These two teams played 3 times in the regular-season. Suns won 106-103 in the first meeting, Denver won 130-126 in overtime and 120-112 in double-overtime the next two.
So while it looks like 2 of the 3 were high scoring, the game that ended with 156 had 28 points scored after regulation (tied 114-114) and in the game that had 132 there were 36 scored in extra time (tied 98-98). Denver has also lost two starters since the last time they played in Jamal Murray and Will Barton.
I think there's value with this total due to the Nuggets coming off a high-scoring series against the Blazers. Phoenix and Portland are actually tied (4th) in offensive efficiency at 114.9. The big difference is defense. Suns are 9th in defensive efficiency at 108.8 and the Blazers are 29th at 113.4. Phoenix is also tied with Denver in pace at 26th, where Portland was tied for 16th in pace. Give me the UNDER 220.5!
|06-03-21||Suns v. Lakers UNDER 207.5||Top||113-100||Loss||-106||13 h 12 m||Show|
50* (NBA) - Suns/Lakers MAX UNIT Top Play (Under 207.5)
I like the UNDER 207.5 in Game 6 tonight between the Lakers and Suns. I'm torn on whether or not LA can win this game, but I am pretty confident that it will be low scoring. I think the Lakers are not only desperate facing elimination, but also embarrassed from that ugly loss in Game 5. The level of intensity they are going to have at home with their backs against the wall is going to be really high.
At the same time, I don't think the Suns are feeling good about things. Sure they like that AD is hurt, but this thing can flip in a hurry if he comes back. Chris Paul knows to not like his team take this game lightly, just because they got a Game 7 at home if needed. I expect Phoenix to be just as motivated here to finish this thing off. I just don't think there's going to be enough pace and shot making to get this to the 210 range. Give me the UNDER 207.5!
|05-21-21||Grizzlies v. Warriors UNDER 221||Top||117-112||Loss||-100||12 h 60 m||Show|
50* (NBA) - Grizzlies/Warriors MAX UNIT Top Play (Under 221)
I will gladly take my chances with the UNDER 221 in Friday's Play-In matchup for the No. 8 seed between the Warriors and Grizzlies. While we just watched the Wizards/Pacers fly past the total last night, the UNDER has hit in 3 of the 5 play-in games with the only two OVERs coming in games that involved the Pacers.
The Grizzlies/Spurs matchup on Wednesday went UNDER the total of 225 by 29 points, as the Grizzlies won that game by a final of 100-96. The Warriors/Lakers game stayed UNDER the total of 217 by 14 as LA won 103-100.
Both of these teams were exceptional on the defensive end, as Memphis held the Spurs to just 35% shooting, while Golden State held the Lakers to 40.7% from the field. If you go back it's nothing new. Grizzlies have held 6 of their last 7 opponents to 44% or worse, while the Warriors have held 7 of their last 10 under that mark. These two played late in the regular-season and only combined for 214 points and that was with GW shooting 49%. Give me the UNDER 221!
|05-13-21||Indians v. Mariners UNDER 7.5||Top||4-2||Win||100||12 h 53 m||Show|
50* (MLB) - Late Night *MAX UNIT* Top Play (Under 7.5)
I love the UNDER 7.5 in Thursday's late night action on the west coast that has Indians at the Mariners. Neither of these teams are great offensively. Cleveland has scored 3 or fewer in 3 of their last 4 and Seattle has scored 4 or fewer in 3 straight.
You also got a great starting pitching matchup with Indians' Zach Plesac against Mariners' top prospect Logan Gilbert. Plesac has been outstanding of late with a 1.27 ERA and 0.7500 WHIP in his last 3 starts. He hasn't allowed a run in his last two starts. Gilbert is a kid that has elite level stuff and I really like him to pitch well against this Indians lineup. Give me the UNDER 7.5!
|05-11-21||Marlins v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8||Top||3-11||Loss||-114||12 h 1 m||Show|
50* (MLB) - NL West TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Under 8)
I love the UNDER 8 in Tuesday's NL showdown between Miami and Arizona. Two of the hottest starters in the game will be facing off in this one. Marlins' Pablo Lopez has a 2.04 ERA in 7 starts and a 0.50 ERA and 0.889 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Diamondbacks' Madison Bumgarner had a bit of a rough start to 2021, but has a 1.00 ERA and 0.389 WHIP in his last 3 starts.
These two starters squared off against each other in Miami last week (5/6) and the game finished with just 4 runs, as the two starters combined to pitch 11 innings, giving up just 1 ER on 5 hits. UNDER is also a strong 13-3 in Marlins last 16 road games after 2 straight games scoring 2 or fewer runs. Give me the UNDER 8!
|05-04-21||Mavs v. Heat UNDER 215.5||Top||127-113||Loss||-109||11 h 49 m||Show|
50* (NBA) - Tuesday *MAX UNIT* Top Play (Under 215.5)
I really like the UNDER 215.5 in tonight's NBA matchup between the Heat and Mavs. These two teams are in similar spots down the stretch, as both are fighting to avoid the play-in tournament. Right now both are safe, but not by much.
Mavs sit 6th, just 0.5-games ahead of 7th place Portland. Miami is 6th in the east, but are just 1-game up on 7th place Boston. Every win is huge for these two teams and I think with both teams having Monday off, we are going to get a big defensive effort.
Both teams also figure to be without two of their top offensive playmakers, as the Mavs aren't expected to have Kristaps Porzingis and the Heat are going to be without Tyler Herro. Note Miami is also still without Oladipo and may not have the services of Iguodala. Give me the UNDER 215.5!
|04-30-21||Jazz v. Suns UNDER 219||Top||100-121||Loss||-112||12 h 58 m||Show|
50* (NBA) - Friday *MAX UNIT* Top Play (Under 219)
I absolutely love the UNDER 219 in Friday's huge Western Conference showdown between the Suns and Jazz. The winner of this game will be in the drivers seat for the No. 1 seed in the west, as Utah comes into this matchup just 1-game up on the Suns with both teams having just 9 left on the schedule after this contest. Phoenix has the tiebreaker, so if the two finished tied they get the top spot.
I think the defensive intensity is going to be very high on both sides. You also got Utah playing this game without Donovan Mitchell or Mike Conley. So while these two did combine for 230 in their last meeting, that was with Mitchell carrying the Jazz with 41 points. Conley was also in double-figures with 11. Give me the UNDER 219!
|04-22-21||Angels v. Astros UNDER 9||Top||2-8||Loss||-101||25 h 17 m||Show|
50* (MLB) - AL West TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Under 9)
I love the UNDER 9 in Thursday's AL West showdown between the Astros and Angels. I just don't see either offense going off with the two starters that will be taking the mound in this one. Los Angeles is sending out Alex Cobb, while Houston counters with Cristian Javier.
Cobb comes in with a not so great 4.63 ERA in 2 starts, but the advanced stats say that's a big fluke, as he owns a 2.04 FIP and exceptional 1.67 xFIP. His 17 strikeouts in 11 2/3 innings really speaks to how well he's thrown the ball.
Javier hasn't had as many swing and misses, but does have a very respectable 11 K's in 8 2/3 innings. Javier owns a 2.08 ERA and 0.923 WHIP. With a 1.57 FIP, there's every reason to believe he's been as good as the numbers are showing. Give me the UNDER 9!
|04-20-21||Wolves v. Kings OVER 237.5||Top||134-120||Win||100||13 h 47 m||Show|
50* (NBA) - Western Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Over 237.5)
I love the OVER 237.5 in Tuesday's game between the Timberwolves and Kings. I just don't see any defense being played between these two Western Conference bottom feeders. Neither plays much defense as it is. Both certainly haven't been playing much of late, as Minnesota is giving up 121.8 ppg on 50% shooting in their last 5, while Sacramento has allowed 119.4 ppg on 51% shooting in their last 5.
Key here is that both of these teams can score. I don't think it will take much for both of these teams to reach 120 points. Also, I think the fact that these two are scheduled to turn around and play each other again in Sacramento tomorrow night, gives that much more incentive to not try defensively in this first meeting. Give me the OVER 237.5!
|04-15-21||Diamondbacks v. Nationals UNDER 8.5||Top||11-6||Loss||-112||9 h 20 m||Show|
50* (MLB) Thursday *MAX UNIT* Top Play (Under 8.5)
I love the UNDER 8.5 in Thursday's matchup between the Nationals and Diamondbacks. I know Arizona's Merrill Kelly has a 8.10 ERA and 1.700 WHIP in his first 2 starts, but his two starts have come on the road against the Padres and Rockies. It should be much easier here against a sub-par Nationals offense that has already been shutout 3 times in the early going.
Same can be said for Washington starter Pat Corbin, who had a rough first start at the Dodgers. He really just had one bad inning, giving up 5 of his 6 runs in the 2nd inning. He should be much better and the Dbacks are only scoring 3.6 runs/game and hitting .209 as a team on the road this season.
The last big factor here is the weather. Temps are expected to only be in the mid 50s with close to a 15 mph wind blowing straight in from left field. Give me the UNDER 8.5!
|04-12-21||Indians v. White Sox UNDER 8.5||Top||3-4||Win||100||11 h 40 m||Show|
50* (MLB) - Monday *MAX UNIT* Top Play (Under 8.5)
I love the UNDER 8.5 in Monday's AL Central clash between the Indians and White Sox. Cleveland is the definition of an UNDER team. They struggle to score runs, but don't necessarily need to with their rotation and bullpen. UNDER has cashed in 6 of their 8 games this season.
Triston McKenzie will be taking the mound for Cleveland and while he is making his first start, he pitched 3 2/3 innings out of the pen and was really good. He only gave up 1 run on 2 hits. In his brief career start last year, McKenzie has a 3.16 ERA and 0.97 WHIP with opponents hitting just .180 against him.
White Sox will counter with Carlos Rodon, who tossed 5 scoreless innings with 9 K's in his first start at Seattle. Rodon has kind of had his way with Cleveland, posting a 2.83 ERA and 1.122 WHIP in 15 starts. Give me the UNDER 8.5!
|04-07-21||Pelicans v. Nets OVER 231||Top||111-139||Win||100||10 h 30 m||Show|
50* (NBA) - Wednesday *MAX UNIT* Top Play (Over 231)
I love the OVER 231 in tonight's game between the Pelicans and Nets. While Brooklyn won't have the services of James Harden for a while, they are expected to get back Kevin Durant. The duo of Durant and Irving with all the role players they got is more than enough.
I look for the Nets to have a field day offensively against an awful Pelicans defense that is giving up 117.6 ppg over their last 5. They didn't even try to defend the 3-point line in last night's 107-123 loss to the Hawks, as Atlanta went 20 of 31 (64.5%) from deep. They give those Nets the same looks and Brooklyn could easily score 140+
The key here is I think the Nets aren't going to be all that locked in defensively. They got a lot of new pieces and it's going to take some time before they are a cohesive defensive unit. New Orleans is also a very strong offensive team. Give me the OVER 231!
|04-06-21||Pelicans v. Hawks OVER 225.5||Top||107-123||Win||100||11 h 33 m||Show|
50* (NBA) - Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Over 225.5)
I love the OVER 225.5 in tonight's NBA matchup between the Pelicans and Hawks. I think we are getting a discount on the total due to the fact that New Orleans could be playing again without Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram. Both are listed as questionable, but there's been no indication that they will play. If they do that's great, but I don't think they need them to eclipse this number.
In the Pelicans last 4 games they have combined for 124 with the Celtics, 125 with the Magic, 129 with these same Hawks and 137 in their last game with the Rockets. Going back even further, NO has seen a combined score of at least 120 in 7 of their last 8.
Add that with how the Hawks have been playing and this is a no-brainer. In Atlanta's last 5 games they are scoring 117.8 ppg on 49% shooting and giving up 117.2 ppg on 48% shooting. Give me the OVER 225.5!
|04-04-21||Dodgers v. Rockies OVER 11.5||Top||4-2||Loss||-106||7 h 30 m||Show|
50* (MLB) Sunday *MAX UNIT* Top Play (Over 11.5)
Not a lot I can say that I haven't said the last 3 days, as we take the OVER for a fourth straight day in the Rockies/Dodgers series. We cashed the OVER in each of the first two and ended with a push in Game 3.
Each of these teams have scored a minimum of 5 runs in each of the 3 games they have played and with temps expected in the low 80s for this one, the ball figures to be flying out of the park. The Dodgers are capable of eclipsing this total on their own and with Austin Gomber on the mound for the Rockies they just might. I know Julio Urias has been solid, but he's got a 6.25 ERA and 1.426 WHIP in 7 career starts against Colorado. Give me the OVER 11.5!
|04-02-21||Hawks v. Pelicans UNDER 224||Top||126-103||Loss||-110||12 h 19 m||Show|
50* (NBA) - Friday *MAX UNIT* Top Play (UNDER 224)
I absolutely love the UNDER 224 in Friday's game between the Pelicans and Hawks. I just don't see these two coming anywhere close to this total given the circumstances.
For Atlanta, they will be in the 2nd game of a back-to-back after a grueling 134-129 OT win at San Antonio last night. A game in which 4 different Hawks' players logged 35 or more minutes. On top of that, this is Atlanta's 8th and final game of a brutal 8-game road trip.
As for the Pelicans, they might be extremely short-handed here, as Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram and Lonza Ball are all questionable. Given that the line for this game is right around a pick'em that tells me there's a good chance at least two of these guys aren't suiting up and maybe all 3. Give me the UNDER 224!
|03-28-21||Florida State v. Michigan UNDER 143||Top||58-76||Win||100||8 h 54 m||Show|
50* (CBB) - NCAA Tournament 'Sweet 16' MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 143)
I love the UNDER 143 in Sunday's Sweet 16 clash between Florida State and Michigan. I know the Wolverines put up 82 in their first game against Texas Southern and 86 in the Round of 32 against LSU, but that was to be expected. Texas Southern ranked 211th in defensive efficiency and LSU ranked 124th.
It won't be nearly that easy against Florida State. The Seminoles ranked 31st in defensive efficiency and were one of the toughest teams in the country to score inside on (No. 10 in 2P % defense). Just look what they did to Colorado in the Round of 32. The Buffaloes scored 96 points against Georgetown in the 1st round and then were only able to manage 53 against FSU.
Factor in Michigan is also an elite defensive team and one that likes to play the game in the halfcourt, I don't see these two teams reaching 140. Give me the UNDER 143!
|03-13-21||Blazers v. Wolves OVER 233.5||Top||125-121||Win||100||11 h 32 m||Show|
50* BLAZERS/WOLVES NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Over 233.5)
I really considered take the Timberwolves as a home dog here, but I think the real value in this game is the OVER 233.5. Minnesota looked like a different team out of the break, as they went on the road and crushed the Pelicans 135-105. Timberwolves shot 53.7% from the field in that game and while some of that was New Orleans subpar defense, it's not like the Blazers are a good defensive team. Portland just allowed the Suns to shoot 59% from the field in a crushing 121-127 loss at home on Thursday.
I think there's a good chance that Minnesota carries over that strong offensive showing and I definitely don't trust this Timberwolves defense to slow down a potent Blazers offense. This is one of those games where it feels like both teams could easily get into the 120s and it wouldn't shock me if it got way up there with both in the 230s. Give me the OVER 233.5!
|02-25-21||Magic v. Nets OVER 228||Top||92-129||Loss||-110||9 h 17 m||Show|
50* MAGIC/NETS NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Over 228)
If you have been following my NBA picks this year, you knew that the OVER in tonight's Brooklyn/Orland game was going to be on the board. I just don't know the books can make the numbers high enough for these Nets games.
I definitely will be a little more cautious with the OVER going forward when Brooklyn plays a top tier team, as we did just see the UNDER cash in their two games with the Lakers and Clippers, but no way am I not taking the OVER when they are playing a sub-par team like Orlando.
The Nets are so good offensively, even without Durant, that they know they don't have to play all that hard on the defensive end to win games. I definitely don't see them being interested in giving that extra effort against the Magic and it's not like we need 240 in this one, we just need to get to 230. These two combined for 137 in a recent meeting on Jan. 16 and that was with them only reaching 102 at the half. Give me the OVER 228!
|02-22-21||Hornets v. Jazz OVER 229||Top||110-132||Win||100||11 h 29 m||Show|
50* HORNETS/JAZZ NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Over 229)
I love the OVER 229 in today's game between the Jazz and Hornets. These two teams played earlier this month (Feb. 5) and combined for a ridiculous 259 points as the Jazz won 138-121 on the road. Now I'm not expecting them to approach to 260 again, but I don't think getting to 230 is asking a lot. I wouldn't be shocked at all if Utah score 130 on their own in this one.
The big key here being how good a 3-point shooting team Utah is and how bad the Hornets are at defending it. Jazz are shooting 39% and averaging 16 made 3-pointers on the season. Charlotte is allowing opponents to shoot 40% from deep with an average of 16 made 3-pointers on the road.
The other thing here is because the Jazz figure to have such an easy time scoring, are fresh off two grueling games against the Clippers and have a big home game on deck against LeBron and the Lakers, I don't see them really investing a lot of energy on defense in this one. Give me the OVER 229!
|02-19-21||Bulls v. 76ers OVER 230.5||Top||105-112||Loss||-113||10 h 59 m||Show|
50* BULLS/76ERS NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Over 230.5)
I really like the OVER 230.5 in tonight's game between the Bulls and 76ers. The OVER had cashed in 3 straight games for Chicago before Wednesday's low-scoring game with Detroit, where both teams had an awful quarter that kept it UNDER. With the way Chicago can score and their limitations on defense, this is team that should be in a lot of high-scoring games.
I definitely think that's the case here. The 76ers are really clicking on offense. Philadelphia has scored at least 111 points in 6 straight and 9 of 10 overall. They also have allowed 110 or more in 8 of their last 9. With the uptempo style the Bulls like to play and their lack of defense, I could see this flying past the number here. Give me the OVER 230.5!
|02-17-21||Pistons v. Bulls OVER 220||Top||102-105||Loss||-105||10 h 1 m||Show|
50* PISTONS/BULLS NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Over 220)
I love the value here with the OVER 220 in Wednesday's game between the Bulls and Pistons. This is a late addition to the slate, as the league threw this game together last minute after both teams had their original schedule opponents unavailable to play.
I believe it's going to lead to a more high-scoring game than what me night normally see between these two division rivals. Detroit went from suppose to playing the Spurs at home last night and the Mavs in Dallas tonight to traveling to Chicago. I just don't see them being locked in, especially on the defensive side of the ball.
Chicago is scoring 114.8 ppg over their last 5 games and really matchup well here. Bulls are a great 3-point shooting team, hitting 38.3% as a team and will be facing a Detroit defense that is allowing opponents to shoot 39% from deep.
As for the Bulls defense, it's one of the worst in the league. Chicago is giving up 116.0 ppg on 48% shooting. Pistons aren't known for their offense and are only averaging 108.9 ppg on the season, but are averaging 115.4 ppg in their last 5. A stretch that has seen them eclipse 120 on 3 different occasions. If either team hits 120 (both are more than capable) this should fly past the mark. Give me the OVER 220!
|02-16-21||Missouri v. Georgia OVER 153.5||Top||70-80||Loss||-105||9 h 0 m||Show|
50* MISSOURI/GEORGIA NCAAB *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Over 153.5)
I love the OVER 153.5 in Tuesday's SEC showdown between Georgia and Missouri. The Bulldogs are exactly the kind of team you want to take an OVER with. Georgia is potent offensively and like to play at a face pace. The Bulldogs rank 5th in the SEC in tempo and are scoring 76.4 ppg in SEC play (79.6 ppg last 5 games). They also play little to no defense, giving up 84.8 ppg in conference play this season.
Missouri like to play at a little slower tempo, but given how easy it figures to be on the offensive end for them, I look for them to speed it up a little tonight. In the Tigers last 12 games they have faced two teams who rank outside the Top 90 at KenPom in defensive efficiency. In those games they scored 88 against Auburn (No. 93) and 102 against TCU (No. 148). Georgia ranks 140th.
It's also worth noting that Missouri will be without big man Jeremiah Tilmon, who is their best defensive presence inside. He missed their last game against Arkansas and the Tigers gave up 86 in a game that saw a combined score of 167. Give me the OVER 153.5!
|02-15-21||Rockets v. Wizards UNDER 228.5||Top||119-131||Loss||-109||9 h 50 m||Show|
50* WIZARDS/ROCKETS NON-CONF TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Under 228.5)
I love the value here with the UNDER 228.5 in Monday's NBA matchup between the Rockets and Wizards. A lot of people just see the fact that Washington is giving up 119.1 ppg and just immediately look to play the OVER.
Thing is the Wizards have had a bit of bad luck on the defensive end this year. They advanced stats suggest they should be allowing a lot less than they have been and those stats are starting to show as the UNDER has hit in 6 of the last 7 games for the Wizards.
Not only is it their defense, but it's also their struggles offensively, as Washington has shot 42% or worse from the field in 6 of 7. Houston is in a major offensive funk right now as well, as they are really missing Christian Wood and will also be without Oladipo. Rockets have shot 43% or worse in 5 straight and are scoring just 98.8 ppg during this stretch. Give me the UNDER 228.5!
|02-14-21||Spurs v. Hornets OVER 228.5||Top||122-110||Win||100||9 h 35 m||Show|
50* SPURS/HORNETS NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Over 228.5)
I love the OVER 228.5 in Sunday's matchup between San Antonio and Charlotte. I see these two teams easily getting to 230 points. That's basically been every game here of late for the Hornets. In Charlotte's last 5 games they are scoring 118.6 ppg and giving up 114.6 ppg.
Spurs aren't exactly viewed as a great offensive team, but they are quietly averaging 110.7 ppg and that jumps up to 113.2 ppg on the road. In their last road game at Atlanta on Friday they scored 125 points on 53% shooting and were better than that as they had 110 points thru 3 quarters before throwing in the scrubs in the 4th.
Spurs are also not a great defensive team. They are giving up 111.5 ppg on 47% shooting from the field and 39% from behind the 3-point line on the season. That poor 3-point defense figures to be a major problem against the Hornets. Charlotte is averaging 14 made 3's and shooting 38% from deep on the season. Give me the OVER 228.5!
|02-12-21||Knicks v. Wizards UNDER 218.5||Top||109-91||Win||100||9 h 54 m||Show|
50* KNICKS/WIZARDS NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Under 218.5)
I really like the UNDER 218.5 in Friday's slate between the Knicks and Wizards. Washington's defensive numbers don't look great, as they are giving up 120.9 ppg on the season and 126.4 ppg at home. I'm not saying this is a great defensive team, but the advance stats strongly suggest they are a better defensive team than what it shows. Teams have just shot lights out against them.
That's where the Knicks come into play. New York is one of the few, if not the only, team that wants to win games strictly on their defense. New York is only scoring 101.7 ppg on the road this season. 101.7 ppg would be decent 10 years ago. It's awful in this day an age. With Bradley Beal sitting out this game for rest, the Knicks should be able to turn this into more of a half-court game and keep it well below the number. Give me the UNDER 218.5!
|02-10-21||Raptors v. Wizards OVER 232||Top||137-115||Win||100||9 h 35 m||Show|
50* RAPTORS/WIZARDS NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (OVER 232)
I love the OVER 232 in today's game between the Raptors and Wizards. Washington has seen the UNDER cash in 4 straight, but all of those were on the road and against some subpar offensive teams in the Heat (twice), Hornets and Bulls. Prior to this recent stretch the OVER had cashed in 11 of 16 games involving the Wizards. OVER is also a dominant 7-2 in the 9 home games Washington has played. Not a big surprise that the Wizards are an OVER team at home. They play at one of the fastest tempos in the league, are scoring 121.3 ppg at home and giving up 125.2 ppg.
As for the Raptors, they are red-hot offensively right now. Toronto is averaging 122.0 ppg over their last 5 and are scoring 116.5 and giving up 115.7 ppg on the road this season. OVER has cashed in each of the Raptors last 6 games and is 9-4 in their 13 road games. Give me the OVER 232!
|02-09-21||Nets v. Pistons OVER 230||Top||111-122||Win||100||9 h 38 m||Show|
50* NETS/PISTONS NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (OVER 230)
I love the OVER between Brooklyn and Detroit tonight. Even with Kevin Durant sidelined, the Nets are still an offensive juggernaut with Irving and Harden. Those two can more than carry the load and I expect both to be on point here to make sure the Nets don't lose a 3rd straight game.
Thing is those two are also a big liability on the defensive side of the ball and we have seen the Nets consistently give up a ton of points to bad offensive teams like Detroit. Brooklyn has allowed 120 or more points in 10 of their last 11 games. There's a good chance both teams hit 120 points in this game. The total here should be closer to 240. Give me the OVER 230!
|02-01-21||Rockets v. Thunder OVER 222.5||Top||136-106||Win||100||10 h 22 m||Show|
50* ROCKETS/THUNDER NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (OVER 222.5)
I love the OVER 222.5 in Monday's matchup between the Thunder and Rockets. I really think this Rockets team is better than they get credit for and could end up being quite the juggernaut offensively. They come into this game off 126 point outburst in a 14-point win at New Orleans and I look for the offense to have another big game on the road against OKC tonight.
Thunder just gave up 147 points in regulation to the Nets and have allowed 112 or more in 8 of their last 10 games. OVER is 6-2 in OKC's last 8 games and in their last 5 they are scoring 111.6 ppg and giving up 118.8 ppg. They also are allowing a staggering 121.9 ppg at home this season. I just think the total here should be closer to 230. Give me the OVER 222.5!
|01-18-21||Kansas v. Baylor UNDER 141||Top||69-77||Loss||-105||12 h 52 m||Show|
50* KANSAS/BAYLOR NCAAB *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Under 141)
I will gladly take the UNDER 141 in Monday's huge Big 12 matchup between No. 2 Baylor and No. 6 Kansas. The Bears are elite on the defensive side of the ball and while Kansas isn't as good defensively as they have been in recent years, they are still more than capable of holding their own on that side of the ball.
Baylor just played a similar team to Kansas in Texas Tech on Saturday and they won that game by a final of 168 to 160 for a combined score of just 128. Kansas is certainly going to be motivated for this game and should be locked in defensively here off a loss and playing on a week of rest. UNDER has cashed in 10 of the last 13 meetings between these two teams when they play at Baylor. In both meetings last year they combined for 122 and 125 points. Give me the UNDER 141!
|01-02-21||Ole Miss v. Indiana OVER 65||Top||26-20||Loss||-110||45 h 43 m||Show|
50* OLE MISS/INDIANA NCAAF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Over 65)
Whenever Ole Miss is involved it's almost always going to end up being a high-scoring game and I don't see any reason why this will be any different. I know Indiana lost starting quarterback Michael Penix Jr., but backup Jack Tuttle has had more than enough time to prepare for this game, as Indiana hasn't played since Dec. 5.
More importantly, Tuttle won't have to do it all against this awful Ole Miss defense. Indiana has a big time running back to carry the load in Stevie Scott III, who will be up against a Rebels defense that allows 211 rushing yards/game and 5.4 yards/carry.
As for the Ole Miss offense, few teams have been able to slow down Lane Kiffin's attack. The Rebels averaged 40.7 ppg (allowed 40.3 ppg). They did so with a very balanced attack, as they averaged 218 rushing yards/game and 345 passing yards/game.
The only two offense that the Hoosiers faced that are close to this Ole Miss attack is Penn State and Ohio State and they couldn't really stop either. The Nittany Lions put up 35 points on 488 yards, while the Buckeyes scored 42 and had over 600 yards of total offense. Give me the OVER 65!
|12-24-20||Hawaii v. Houston OVER 59.5||Top||28-14||Loss||-105||5 h 43 m||Show|
50* HAWAII/HOUSTON NEW MEXICO BOWL TOP PLAY (Over 59.5)
I'm going to take the OVER 59.5 between Hawaii and Houston on Christmas Eve. I just don't see either team putting up of a fight on the defensive end. That's because I don't see either defense being able to slow down the run game.
Hawaii hasn't been able to stop the run all season. The Rainbow Warriors go into this game allowing 231 rushing yards/game and 5.4 yards/carry. Houston is slightly better, allowing only 173 yards/game and 4.3 yards/carry, but they will be without two of their best players in linebacker Grant Stuard and defensive end Payton Turner. Stuard is a massive loss as he's the one guy that you can always count on being around the ball. His 61 tacklers are 32 more than the next best player on this team.
I know wind could be a bit of a factor, but I don't think it will be enough to keep these offenses from putting up points. When you can run the ball, your chances of finishing drives with TDs and not FGs goes up dramatically. I also think both teams are going to have to sell out on the run, which should leave some big opportunities in the pass game. Give me the OVER 59.5!
|12-23-20||Pelicans v. Raptors OVER 228.5||Top||113-99||Loss||-104||9 h 26 m||Show|
50* PELICANS/RAPTORS NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Over 228.5)
I will gladly take the OVER 228.5 in Wednesday's NBA season opener between the Pelicans and Raptors. I feel like these are going to be two of the highest scoring teams in the league this year. Toronto is a team that shot and made a lot of 3's last year and from the looks of it will be shooting it even more. That's pretty evident with them replacing their two big men of Ibaka and Gasol with Aron Baynes. They were jacking up 40+ 3's in the preseason.
As for the Pelicans, the minutes restrictions are off for Zion and this team is built to get up and down the floor with all their youth and athleticism. They also got plenty of guys who shoot from deep. I look for Zion to feast against the small-ball Raptors lineup and for this game to fly past the total. Give me the OVER 228.5!
|12-22-20||Warriors v. Nets OVER 231.5||Top||99-125||Loss||-113||9 h 39 m||Show|
50* WARRIORS/NETS NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Over 231.5)
I think we are going to see the Warriors and Nets fly past the total of 231.5 tonight. Golden State won't have Draymond Green for this game and lost Klay Thompson for the year. The loss of Thompson is big, but his absence will be more felt on defense than offense. I don't see the offense having any trouble to score with the trio of Steph Curry, Andrew Wiggins and Kelly Oubre Jr. These 3 are going to shoot and make a ton of 3-pointers this year.
As for the Nets, we finally get to see the dynamic duo of Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving. These are two of the most skilled offensive players in the league. While Durant is a solid defender, Irving is a major liability on that side of the ball.
You also have to factor in all the new pieces both teams are working in compared to last year. The lack of chemistry usually impacts the defense a lot more than the offense. I wouldn't be surprised if both teams scored 120+ points. Give me the OVER 231.5!
|12-14-20||Ravens v. Browns UNDER 46.5||Top||47-42||Loss||-115||8 h 20 m||Show|
50* RAVENS/BROWNS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Under 46.5)
I love the UNDER in tonight's Monday Night Football matchup between AFC North rivals Browns and Ravens. I think we are getting value here with the UNDER after Cleveland's game last week against the Titans, which saw a combined 76 points in the Browns 41-35 win.
I know Baker Mayfield has looked great here of late, but let's not overlook the fact that his last two games have come against two of the worst pass defenses in the league in the Jags and Titans. I mean he was throwing to wide open guys against Tennessee. Baltimore isn't going to give them those easy looks and most importantly the Ravens have the front 7 that can contain the Browns ground game.
The other big thing to note is that these two combined for 44 back in Week 1 with Baltimore scoring 38. With much colder conditions, a lot more tape on each team and winds expected to be blowing at close to 15 mph, I wouldn't be shocked if both teams failed to score 20 points. Give me the UNDER 46.5!
|12-12-20||Georgia v. Missouri OVER 54||Top||49-14||Win||100||23 h 2 m||Show|
50* GEORGIA/MIZZU NCAAF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Over 54)
I'm a bit shocked the total here is this low, as I think both of these teams can and will be able to put points on the board this Saturday. This is not the same Georgia offense that we saw early in the year now that J.T. Daniels is at quarterback.
Daniels made his first start two games ago against a good Mississippi State defense and completed 28 of 38 for 401 yards and 4 scores. While he only threw for 139 yards in last weeks game against South Carolina, he only had to attempt 16 passes. They still put up 471 yards, as they racked up 332 rushing yards. In his two games as a starter they are averaging 440 yards, well above their season average of 397.
I see no reason why Georgia won't be able to put up a big number against Missouri's defense. The Tigers just allowed Arkansas to score 48 with 292 rushing yards and 274 passing yards. Really any time this Tigers defense has faced a capable offense they have struggled. They allowed 41 to Florida, 41 to LSU, 38 to Alabama and also 35 to a bad Tennessee offense.
Georgia's defense is good but not elite like it has been or was expected to be this year. Their biggest weakness is stopping the pass and Missouri has racked up 380 passing yards in each of their last two games. I really think both teams will score in the 30s and all we really need is for one to hit this total. Give me the OVER 54!
|12-05-20||Boston College v. Virginia OVER 54.5||Top||32-43||Win||100||23 h 54 m||Show|
50* BC/VIRGINIA NCAAF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Over 54.5)
I think these two are going to fly past the total of 54.5. Both of these teams have the ability to put up points. Virginia has scored at least 31 in each of their last 3 games. BC has scored 31 or more in each of their last two.
Not only can both teams score, but both teams are pretty good at giving up points. The Cavaliers have allowed 38 or more in 4 games this season. The Eagles have allowed 27 or more in 6 of their last 7 games. They only exception coming against low life Syracuse. I think there's a good chance both teams score 30 in this one and we don't even need that. 28-27 would do the trick.
OVER is also 9-2 in Virginia's last 11 home games and the average combined score in these 11 games is 63.6. Almost a full 10 points more than the number we are playing. Give me the OVER 54.5!
|12-01-20||North Carolina v. Stanford OVER 143.5||Top||67-63||Loss||-108||5 h 48 m||Show|
50* UNC/STANFORD NCAAB *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Over 143.5)
I'm confident we are going to get a shootout in Tuesday's matchup between North Carolina and Stanford. The Tar Heels come in ranked No. 14 and have looked impressive early on on the offensive side of the ball. As you would expect, UNC wants to play fast and use all that athleticism to their advantage.
I got a feeling the Cardinal will be happy to play up-tempo. They just put up 82 points on Alabama and not many like to play at the frantic pace of the Crimson Tide. Only reason that game didn't get into the 150's was Alabama shot 7 of 29 from deep. I would be shocked if both teams don't eclipse 70 points. This total should be closer to 150. Give me the OVER 143.5!
|11-30-20||Seahawks v. Eagles OVER 48.5||Top||23-17||Loss||-110||9 h 23 m||Show|
50* SEAHAWKS/EAGLES NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (OVER 48.5)
I wanted to take Seattle, but I just don't feel like laying a touchdown on the road with this Seahawks team. Seattle has lost each of their last 3 road games, two of which they went off as the favorite.
The good news is, I see a ton of value with the OVER at less than 50. In Seattle's 5 road games 4 have seen a combined score of at least 54 points with 3 going for 63 or more. Only exception was at LA vs the Rams.
It's a combination of how great this Seahawks offense is and how poor the defense has been. There's so much talent across the board with the Seattle offense and I just feel this Eagles defense is better suited to stop the run.
I know Wentz has been awful and there's talk that Hurts is going to get a long look, I think they can get something going here at home against this Seattle defense. Seattle is giving up 30.4 ppg, 450 ypg and 6.5 yards/play on the road this season. Give me the OVER 48.5!
|11-29-20||Raiders v. Falcons OVER 53.5||Top||6-43||Loss||-110||25 h 12 m||Show|
50* NFL NON-CONF TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Over 53.5)
I love the OVER 53.5 in Sunday's matchup between the Raiders and Falcons. I don't see a great defensive effort here from Las Vegas after that crushing loss the Chiefs on Sunday Night Football. With that said, even in normal circumstances I would be high on this Atlanta offense against this Raiders defense.
While I'm not expecting a great effort defensively, I do think Carr and that Raiders offense will come to play and they too will be up against a deflated defense in the Falcons, who couldn't stop Taysom Hill and the Saints last week.
These are really two identical teams. Vegas is scoring 28.6 ppg and giving up 27.6 ppg. Atlanta is scoring 25.2 ppg and allowing 27.5 ppg. I think both teams hit the 30-point mark. Not only do we have ideal conditions with the game indoors, but these non-confernece matchups always seem to be a little higher scoring, as there's just not much familiarity with the two teams.
Speaking to that, OVER is 7-0 last 2 seasons in non-conference games involving the Raiders. OVER is also 33-18 in Atlanta's last 51 after a road loss by 14 or more. Give me the OVER 53.5!
|11-28-20||Georgia v. South Carolina OVER 49||Top||45-16||Win||100||27 h 37 m||Show|
50* GEORGIA/S CAROLINA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Over 49)
I really think people are sleeping on the Bulldogs right now. I think the perception is that because Georgia no longer has a clear path to the SEC East title and thus the playoffs, this team doesn't care.
I get that expectations are sky-high with this Bulldogs' program, but I don't that this was like previous years in terms of hype. I mean Georgia didn't have their guy at QB to start the year. If J.T. Daniels (USC transfer) would have been ready from the start I think this team would have beat Florida and who knows against Alabama.
Daniels finally got on the field last week and was spectacular, throwing for 401 yards and 4 TDs against Mississippi State. I get the Bulldogs aren't a great team, but they have put up pretty good defensive numbers this season. Either way, 400 yards and 4 TDs is impressive.
I see no reason to not keep letting Daniels chuck the ball around the field. There's nothing to lose for Georgia at this point. I really wouldn't be shocked at all if the Bulldogs flirted with this total on their own. South Carolina has allowed 48 or more points in 3 of their last 4. Give me the OVER 49!
|11-20-20||Purdue v. Minnesota OVER 59.5||Top||31-34||Win||100||102 h 41 m||Show|
50* PURDUE/MINNESOTA NCAAF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (OVER 59.5)
We will take our chances here with Minnesota and Purdue combining for at least 60 points in Friday's Big Ten action. While each of the last two games for the Gophers went UNDER, one was a result of their opponent not being able to score (Illinois) and last week it was Iowa's defense taking away the running game, as Minnesota managed just 7 points after scoring 40+ in each of their previous two games.
The Gophers offense is much better when they run the ball, but note that last year they scored 38 on Purdue with just 92 rushing yards, as Tanner Morgan threw for 396 yards and 4 scores. Boilermakers had 31 points of their own, as the two combined for 69 points.
OVER is also 37-17 in the Gophers last 54 at home off a game where they failed to cover and a dominant 22-8 in their last 30 as a home dog of 7 or less. Give me the OVER 59.5!
|11-18-20||Northern Illinois v. Ball State UNDER 62||Top||25-31||Win||100||28 h 5 m||Show|
50* N ILLINOIS/BALL ST *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Under 62)
I know these are two defenses that have struggled to keep points off the scoreboard. Northern Illinois is giving up 44.4 ppg and Ball State is allowing 34.5 ppg. I just think the numbers are a bit inflated for Northern Illinois.
The Huskies combined for 79 points in their opener against Buffalo, losing 49-30. However, the Bulls scored 3 defensive touchdowns. A game that was just 21-16 at the half turned into 49-16 in less than 20 minutes on the clock.
In last week's game against Central Michigan, it was 26-0 going into the 4th quarter before the two teams put up 24 to end up at 50.
Given how much Northern Illinois struggles to score, I just don't see these two teams getting to 63 unless there's a bunch of crazy scores.
Also, both of these teams like to run the ball and both offenses might be even more inclined to run in this game. There's expected to be crosswinds approaching 20 mph. This should help limit the possessions with fewer big plays thru the air. Give me the UNDER 62!
|11-13-20||Iowa v. Minnesota OVER 58||Top||35-7||Loss||-106||79 h 2 m||Show|
50* IOWA/MINNESOTA NCAAF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (OVER 58)
I firmly believe that Minnesota is going to be a great OVER team this year. I took the OVER 65 in their game last week at Illinois and it didn't cash, but they did get to 55 points and it was against arguably the worst offense in the Big Ten.
Gophers did their part scoring 41 points on 541 total yards of offense. Minnesota is now averaging 36.3 ppg, 444 ypg and 6.3 yards/play. This is no shocker. This team averaged 34.1 ppg last year and returned 9 starters.
It's the defense where they lost a bunch of talent and it showed in their first two games, as they gave up 49 to Michigan at home and 45 to Maryland on the road. I don't think it magically got better against Illinois. The Illini are just that bad offensively and they were missing some key guys.
Iowa's offense put up 49 last week, but did only score 20 in their first two games against Purdue and Northwestern. I just think the Hawkeyes are going to be able to do as they please against Minnesota. Iowa's o-line should have their way and that's going to lead to a lot of big runs and plays down the field.
As for the Hawkeyes defense. It's your typical Kirk Ferentz defense, but I don't think it's quite as good as we have seen the last couple of years. They should also open up/relax a little if the offense is able to move the ball at will. Give me the OVER 58!
|10-20-20||Rays v. Dodgers OVER 7.5||Top||3-8||Win||101||11 h 58 m||Show|
50* RAYS/DODGERS WORLD SERIES *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Over 7.5)
I would give the slight edge to the Dodgers in Game 1, but I just don't trust Kershaw enough to lay that kind of juice with LA. I instead will be taking the OVER 7.5. Could Kershaw pitch great? Sure. But based on what we have seen in the playoffs, it's not a toss up.
He was so good for 4 innings in his only start against the Braves and then things took a quick turn for the worse. When it was done he gave up 4 runs on 7 hits in 5 innings of a 2-10 loss. You also can't trust that Dodgers pen.
Key here is I think we are going to get a big game from that LA offense. The Dodgers can explode at any moment. We saw that in their 11-run first against the Braves in Game 3. I like Glasnow, but he hasn't been great in the playoffs. He has a 5.40 ERA and 1.350 WHIP. Guy also has a problem with serving up HRs (has allowed 17 in 15 starts). Give me the OVER 7.5!
|10-11-20||Raiders v. Chiefs OVER 56.5||Top||40-32||Win||100||119 h 15 m||Show|
50* RAIDERS/CHIEFS AFC WEST PLAY OF THE MONTH (Over 56.5)
I know the history of these two teams has seen a lot of UNDERS, but I absolutely love the OVER in this matchup. Patrick Mahomes and that Kansas City offense really struggled last week against the Patriots. They played about as poorly as we have seen them since Mahomes became the starter.
The special players like Mahomes, always seem to bounce back from a bad game with one of their best. A motivated Mahomes should spell disaster for this Raiders defense. Oakland's giving up 30 ppg. They rank in the bottom half of the league against both the run and the pass. Last year Mahomes scored 28 in a quarter against this defense in the first matchup and KC put up 40 in the next meeting.
Key here is I expect Oakland to make a game of it. There's no question this Chiefs defense is better than they get credit for, but I just wonder if they aren't primed for a bit of a letdown here. They were clearly excited to play Week 1 against the Texans, then they had to carry them in a win at LA, after that it was Lamar and the Ravens and Belichick and the Pats.
Even though the Raiders are a big rival, it's not as big when the teams aren't on the same level in talent. Not to mention they got a HUGE game on deck at Buffalo next week. Bills are clearly one of the top teams in the AFC and only one team gets that first round bye this year. That's a massive tie-breaker game for the No. 1 seed. Give me the OVER 57!
|10-08-20||Rays v. Yankees OVER 9||Top||1-5||Loss||-110||10 h 47 m||Show|
50* RAYS/YANKEES MLB *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (OVER 9)
We have played and cashed easily on the OVER in each of the last two games in this series. All 3 games in this series have seen a combined 12 runs scored. The OVER is now a perfect 5-0 in Yankees postseason games. It's also 4-1 in the Rays postseason games. Tampa Bay has scored 15 runs in the last two games of this series and have scored 7 or more in 3 of their last 4 games overall.
I see no reason not to expect another high scoring game today. Rays are starting an opener in Ryan Thompson, who has only made 1 start this season (24 relief appearances). He's got a mere 4.44 ERA and 1.41 WHIP over his 26.1 innings of work.
New York will counter with Jordan Montgomery, who went just 2-3 with a 5.11 ERA and 1.295 WHIP in 10 starts. Montgomery hasn't pitched in a game since Sept. 24, so there definitely could be some rust with him in this one. Montgomery made 1 start vs TB this season and didn't get out of the 1st innings, recording just 2 outs, while giving up 4 runs on 5 hits (2 HRs). Give me the OVER 9!
|10-07-20||Rays v. Yankees OVER 9||Top||8-4||Win||100||10 h 42 m||Show|
50* RAYS/YANKEES MLB *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Over 9)
We cashed the OVER 8 in yesterday's 7-5 Rays win. Each of the first two games in the series have both ended with 12 total runs scored. No way I'm backing off the OVER in Game 3.
The Yankees had just 5 hits and had a postseason record 19 strikeouts. They still scored 5 runs. Thanks largely to Stanton, who hit two homers. Stanton has homered in every playoff game for New York.
I'm expecting plenty more strikeouts for Yankees' hitters, but I also see them doing a lot more damage this time around against Charlie Morton. It was an off year for Morton. He started out slow, was hurt and really never hit his stride. He finished with a 4.74 ERA and 1.395 WHIP in 9 starts. He had a 4.40 ERA and 1.465 WHIP in his last 3.
New York counters with Tanaka, who was rocked for 6 runs on 5 hits and 3 walks in his start against the Indians in the first round of the playoffs. Tanaka also has had a down year with a 4.33 ERA in 11 starts. He's got a 7.20 ERA and 1.733 WHIP in his last 3. Give me the OVER 9!
|10-05-20||Patriots v. Chiefs OVER 49||Top||10-26||Loss||-110||10 h 49 m||Show|
50* PATS/CHIEFS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Over 49)
I was on the OVER in this game before it got postponed and moved to tonight. I still think it's the play. Yes, I know Cam Newton isn't playing for the Patriots and he's been great in the first 3 games. I just don't think it's going to impact the scoring as much as some might think.
In fact, it could be a positive. With Cam there's a lot more QB runs, which would have allowed NE to try to eat up more clock and limit the number of times Mahomes got the ball. I also think this Chiefs defense is built for guys like Cam and Lamar. They can really make life miserable for a QB that wants to use his legs and really isn't a precision passer.
All indications are that Hoyer will be the starter over Stidham. I like that, but still would like the over if they switched last second.
As for the Chiefs, I think we finally saw their offense resemble what we thought it should look like in last week's complete beatdown against the Ravens. They put up 34 points on a great Baltimore defense and left plenty of points out there. Note Baltimore has allowed 39 points in their 3 other games.
Belichick is a great defensive mind, but Mahomes has now seen this NE defense enough to know what to expect. Thing is Pats can get away with just his coaching against most teams, but the overall talent level is not great on that side of the ball. We saw Russell Wilson go 21 of 28 for 288 and 5 TDs against this defense a couple weeks ago. Mahomes might throw for 5 TDs, but should put up at least similar numbers. Give me the OVER 49!
|09-25-20||Heat v. Celtics UNDER 213.5||Top||108-121||Loss||-115||12 h 38 m||Show|
50* CELTICS/HEAT NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Under 213.5)
As much as I want to fire back on the Heat at +3.5 after cashing on them in Game 4, I'm going to take the UNDER 213.5. Game 4 ended up going over the total by 9 points, but the OVER didn't look good for the majority of that game. We got a 35-33 4th quarter (a lot of late scoring). I get it happens, but I don't see Game 5 coming close to this number.
Miami wants to finish this thing off and the Celtics are facing elimination. We haven't seen a lot of games go OVER the total since the first round completed, especially late in the series like we are here. Give me the UNDER 213.5!
|09-24-20||Dolphins v. Jaguars OVER 47.5||Top||31-13||Loss||-110||54 h 42 m||Show|
50* DOLPHINS/JAGUARS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Over 47.5)
I don't want anything to do with the side in this game. I know we didn't get the best number, but I still love the OVER 47.5. I'm a big OVER guy in these Thursday games on short rest, especially early in the season. Add in how much more scoring we are getting in 2020 because of the shorten offseason and no fans and these two should hit 50 with ease.
Keep in mind everyone was calling for the UNDER last Thursday between the Browns and Bengals and that thing went flying past the total. As bad as these teams are, Fitzpatrick and Minshew are two guys that can sling it. They will both be up against an awful pass defense. Give me the OVER 47.5!
|09-20-20||Patriots v. Seahawks OVER 44.5||Top||30-35||Win||100||51 h 56 m||Show|
50* PATRIOTS/SEAHAWKS *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (OVER 44.5)
I think we are getting some exceptional value here with the total in this one. I got nothing but respect for Bill Belichick and his ability to coach. He's going to get the most out of what he can. It's why one of my biggest plays in Week 1 was on the Pats -6.5 at Miami.
I'm not saying Russell Wilson is going to shred this NE defense, but I do think Seattle will be able to move the chains early and often. I know Atlanta is not a top tier defensive team, but putting up 38 on the road in Week 1 against a team like that is saying something.
The other big thing that I think might be getting overlooked is we saw Seattle throw the ball a lot more on early downs. Something so many have been begging them to do for years. It puts the ball in Wilson's hands more and that's huge. I don't think they do that in Week 1 and just go back to pounding the rock in Week 2.
On the flip side of all this is Cam Newton. Everything so far has been positive with Newton and I thought he played really well in Week 1. He was an efficient 15 of 19 passing (no interceptions). He also showed he's willing to run (75 yards on 15 attempts), which is how he won the MVP a few years ago.
Seattle's defense isn't what it once was. They gave up over 500 yards to the Falcons in Week 1. Atlanta had 3 different players catch 9 passes and all 3 had over 110 yards. I think Newton shows out in Prime Time and this thing turns into a bit of a shootout. Give me the OVER 44.5!
|09-17-20||Bengals v. Browns OVER 43.5||Top||30-35||Win||100||31 h 8 m||Show|
50* BENGALS/BROWNS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (OVER 43.5)
If you have been following my NFL for awhile, you know that I'm pretty big on the OVER in these Thursday night games. People just haven't caught on to how much the lack of rest impacts the play on the defensive side of the ball.
Factor in how bad the Browns and Bengals looked offensively in Week 1 and I think we are getting big time value with the total at 43.5. I know Cleveland has Garrett, but the Browns defense is no where near as good as the front Cincinnati last faced in the Chargers. Burrow also flashed some in that game and you have to like a guy that makes plays when it matters late.
As for the Browns poor showing, they just went up against a really good Baltimore defense. Cleveland was able to run on the Ravens and should move the chains on the ground against a Bengals defense that won't have their best guy up front in Geno Atkins. Cleveland also has a bunch of guys hurt on defense. Play the OVER 43.5!
|09-14-20||Steelers v. Giants UNDER 45||Top||26-16||Win||100||8 h 23 m||Show|
50* STEELERS/GIANTS MNF MASSACRE (Under 45)
I really like the UNDER 45 in the early Monday Night Football matchup between the Steelers and Giants.
We know the Steelers defense is going to be good. It carried them last year and just felt like it kept getting better. They were outstanding against the run and should be again. They tied with NE allowing a league-low 7 rushing touchdowns. I think they can take away Barkley and I don't see Daniel Jones having a big day behind an offensive line that has 3 new starters.
As for the Steelers offense, there's a lot of optimism with the return of Big Ben. I just don't think he's going to be sharp in his first game back. I certainly don't think they are going to be looking to air it out.
I also think people could be sleeping some on the Giants defense. Most just remember how bad it was last year. They added 3 big pieces, including corner James Bradberry and defensive back Logan Ryan. Give me the UNDER 45!
|08-25-20||Mavs v. Clippers OVER 234.5||Top||111-154||Win||100||11 h 15 m||Show|
50* MAVS/CLIPPERS NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Over 234.5)
I wanted to take the points with the Mavs and might have a little side action on them, but I believe the real value in this game is the OVER. These are two of the best offenses the NBA has to offer. Mavs have shot 50% or better from the field in 3 straight games. Luka Doncic has taken his game to another level and this Dallas team is oozing with confidence after winning Game 4 on a buzzer beater. There's just too much star-power and great shooters on the floor. I think this total should be closer 240. Give me the OVER 234.5!
|08-23-20||Angels v. A's UNDER 9||Top||4-5||Push||0||7 h 24 m||Show|
50* ANGELS/A'S AL WEST PLAY OF THE WEEK (Under 9)
I really like the value here with the UNDER 9 between the A's and Angels. I think we are getting some value with the number here as we got a couple of strong starters coming off a poor start last time out. Dylan Bundy gave up 4 runs in 4 innings against the Giants, while Frankie Montas allowed 9 runs in just 1 2/3 innings at Arizona. Bundy still owns a stellar 2.47 ERA and 0.796 WHIP in 5 starts overall and Montas has a sensational 1.69 ERA and 0.937 WHIP in 3 home starts this season. Give me the UNDER 9!
|08-22-20||Lakers v. Blazers UNDER 225||Top||116-108||Win||100||28 h 18 m||Show|
50* BLAZERS/LAKERS NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Under 225)
The books keeping dropping the total, but I don't think they have adjusted enough for Game 3. The Lakers/Blazers combined for just 193 points in Game 1, which had a total of 234. They then had just 199 in Game 2 with a total of 227.5
The Lakers defense has completely shut down the Blazers offense. Portland shot a mere 39% in their win in Game 1 and hit only 40% in Game 2. Lakers had a great offensive game and still only had 111 points. LA shot 48% from the field and connected on 14 3-pointers after making only 5 in Game 1.
I just think we are going to see more of the same from the Lakers defense. With how inconsistent the Lakers shooting has been, they likely regress from their strong Game 2 performance. Give me the UNDER 225!
|08-20-20||Reds v. Cardinals UNDER 8.5||Top||4-5||Loss||-105||10 h 40 m||Show|
100* MLB OVER/UNDER TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Under 8.5)
I absolutely love the value here with the UNDER 8.5 in tonight's NL Central showdown between the Cardinals and Reds. Cincinnati will have ace Sonny Gray on the mound, who is 4-1 with a 2.05 ERA and 0.913 WHIP in 5 starts. Gray also owns a sensational 1.08 ERA and 0.960 WHIP in 3 career starts (all last season) against the Cardinals.
St. Louis will turn to veteran Adam Wainwright. While he's only made 2 starts, he's been exceptional in both, posting a 1.64 ERA and 0.818 WHIP. He just hasn't been able to start cause the Cardinals missed so many games. I think more rest definitely helps him perform better at this stage of his career. Give me the UNDER 8.5!
|08-17-20||Mavs v. Clippers UNDER 229.5||Top||110-118||Win||100||11 h 8 m||Show|
50* MAVS/CLIPPERS NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Under 229.5)
I really like the value here with the UNDER at 229.5 in Game 1 between the Clippers/Mavs. I know Dallas didn't play great defense in their 8-game bubble restart, but you have to keep in mind they really had nothing to play for. They were all but locked into the No. 7 seed in the west. I think the intensity goes up a lot for the Mavs. As for the Clippers, they are a top tier defensive team, but I feel they got another level they can take it to. Play the UNDER 229.5!
|08-12-20||Cubs v. Indians UNDER 8||Top||7-2||Loss||-115||8 h 30 m||Show|
50* CUBS/INDIANS MLB TOP PLAY (Under 8)
I absolutely love the value with the UNDER 8 in this one. I correctly predicted that the Cubs would be the first team all season to score 5 or more runs against the Indians in yesterday's 7-1 win. I don't feel so confident with them doing it two games in a row.
In fact, I wouldn't be shocked at all if they struggled to score a mere 3 runs. Cleveland will have Carlos Carrasco on the mound, who has a 2.50 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 3 starts.
Cubs will counter with Kyle Hendricks. While Hendricks is normally a guy I look to fade on the road, Cleveland's offense is so bad that I like him to pitch well here. It doesn't hurt that the wind will be blowing in from right. Give me the UNDER 8.
|08-09-20||Indians v. White Sox UNDER 7.5||Top||5-4||Loss||-110||20 h 26 m||Show|
50* SUNDAY NIGHT BASEBALL PLAY OF THE MONTH (Under 7.5)
I really like the value here with the UNDER 7.5 between the White Sox and Indians. Two really good starters will take the mound in this one. Lucas Giolito is coming off a breakout 2019 season. He had a rough first start, but has been outstanding in his last two, giving up just 2 runs on 8 hits with 15 strikeouts in 12 innings. Definitely helps that he's facing a Indians offense that struggles to score runs. His second start was against Cleveland and he threw 6 shutout innings.
Cleveland will have Shane Bieber on the mound and he's been lights out in 2020. Bieber is 3-0 with a 0.83 ERA and 0.692 WHIP in 3 starts. He's absolute mowing people down, as he's got a ridiculous 35 strikeouts (only 3 walks) in 21 2/3 innings. Bieber has a 3.08 ERA and 1.158 WHIP in 6 career starts against Chicago, while Giolito has a 2.56 ERA and 1.074 WHIP in 5 career starts against Cleveland. Give me the UNDER 7.5!
|08-08-20||Diamondbacks v. Padres UNDER 7.5||Top||3-2||Win||100||12 h 3 m||Show|
50* MLB NL WEST TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Under 7.5)
I absolutely love the value here with the UNDER 7.5 between the Padres and Diamondbacks. Neither offense could get much of anything going in the series opener last night, as San Diego pulled out a 3-0 win with the two teams combing for a mere 9 hits. It figures to be more of the same on Saturday with the two starters we got going.
Diamondbacks will send out Merrill Kelly, who has a 2.63 ERA and 0.951 WHIP in his first 2 starts of 2020. Both of which were quality starts. Padres will counter with the highly underrated Chris Paddack, who is one of the best starters in the game right now. Paddack has a 2.65 ERA and 0.941 WHIP in his first 3 starts. Dating back to last year, Paddack has now gone 7 straight starts where he's allowed 3 or fewer runs. Give me the UNDER 7.5!
|08-07-20||Magic v. 76ers OVER 222.5||Top||101-108||Loss||-105||8 h 24 m||Show|
50* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Over 222.5)
I see a ton of value here with the OVER 222.5. Last time out the Magic played a very low scoring game against the Raptors, which ended at 208 with a total of 222. However, each of their first 3 games had gone over the total. All 3 seeing at least 229 and all 3 the Magic gave up 116 or more.
While the 76ers won't have Ben Simmons for this game, I think that could play to our advantage. It gets another guy who can hit a 3-ball on the floor. I actually think the loss of Simmons hurts them more on the defensive side and the 76ers defense has stunk in the bubble so far. I could easily see both teams hitting 120 in this one. Give me the OVER 222.5!
|08-06-20||Angels v. Mariners UNDER 9||Top||6-1||Win||100||7 h 48 m||Show|
50* AL WEST TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Under 9)
I absolutely love the value with the UNDER 9 in Thursday's AL West showdown between the Mariners and Angels. I really like both starters in this one. LA is sending out Dylan Bundy, who looks to be having a breakout season. Bundy has a 2.84 ERA and 0.710 WHIP in his first 2 starts. What really stands out to me is how he's getting guys to miss. He has 15 strikeouts in 12 2/3 innings of work.
Mariners will give the rock to Taijuan Walker. He had a tough first start on the road against a loaded Astros lineup. As expected, he bounced back in a big way in his next start. He held the A's to just 1 hit with 8 K's in 7 shutout innings at home. Last time he faced the Angles (Sept. 2019), he pitched a 3 hit complete game shutout. Give me the UNDER 9!
|07-29-20||Nationals v. Blue Jays UNDER 8.5||Top||4-0||Win||100||9 h 50 m||Show|
50* MLB INTERLEAGUE TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Under 8.5)
I think we are getting some exceptional value here with the total. Washington will have ace Max Scherzer on the mound, who i'm confident is going to have a monster start after a less than stellar first outing. Scherzer did strikeout 11 of the 17 batters he retired. Toronto also doesn't have near the offensive fire-power as the Yankees. The value here stems from Blue Jays starter Nate Pearson, who is making his big league debut. Pearson is a legit top tier prospect. He can light up the radar (100 mph fastball) and more importantly is facing a Nationals lineup that has really struggled to get anything going in 2020. Give me the UNDER 8.5!
|03-09-20||Raptors v. Jazz UNDER 225||Top||101-92||Win||100||12 h 16 m||Show|
50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 225)
I'll take my chances here with the UNDER in Monday's NBA action that has the Raptors visiting the Jazz. I just don't see either team looking to push the pace all that much in this one. Toronto is playing their 5th straight on the road in about as bad a spot as you can get, playing in Utah on no rest after a game last night in Sacramento. As for the Jazz, they had Sunday off, but had to play back-to-back on the road Friday/Saturday to close out a 4-game east coast trip. Another thing here is Utah has won 5 straight and will be highly motivated for revenge from a 20-point loss at Toronto earlier this season, where they gave up 77 in the 1st half to the Raptors.
UNDER is 15-5 in Utah's last 20 home games when they are on a win streak of 4 or more and 6- 1 in their last 7 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Take the UNDER!
|03-08-20||Spurs v. Cavs OVER 222||Top||129-132||Win||100||10 h 36 m||Show|
50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 222)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER 222 in Sunday's NBA action that has the Spurs hosting visiting the Cavs. We see totals in the 230's on the reg in the NBA now a days and I just feel with how bad these two are playing defensively this should be closer to 230 than 220. Cleveland has allowed 4 of their last 5 opponents to shoot 54% or better from the field. San Antonio has allowed each of their last 4 to shoot 47% or better, including 53% last time out at Brooklyn. Cavs give up 115 ppg at home and Spurs allow 117 ppg on the road. Give me the OVER 222!
|03-02-20||Rockets v. Knicks OVER 230.5||Top||123-125||Win||100||8 h 44 m||Show|
50* NBA NON-CONF TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Over 230.5)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER in Monday's matchup that has the Rockets visiting the Knicks. These two teams just played on Feb. 24th and combined for 135 points in a 123-112 Rockets win. I think we are going to see even more offense in this one.
I'm pretty confident Westbrook and Harden will be motivated to show out at Madison Square Garden. They only get to play their once a season. Houston's small ball has them scoring a ton here lately. Only the Celtics have been able to keep them under 120 points since the break.
As for the Knicks offense, they have been shooting really well. New York has hit 50% from the field in 3 straight games. Coming off a big road game at Boston on Saturday and a huge home game against the Clippers looming on Thursday, plus having just beat the Knicks, I don't see Houston being overly invested on playing defense in this one. Give me the OVER 230.5!
|02-25-20||Hornets v. Pacers OVER 210||Top||80-119||Loss||-101||9 h 30 m||Show|
50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 210)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER 210 between the Hornets and Pacers. I just think we are getting big time value here on the OVER due to how awful these two teams just played offensively in their last game. Charlotte scored just 86 at home to the Nets and Indiana managed just 81 on the road at Toronto. Both teams did allow 115+ in those losses. Pacers score 110 ppg at home and Hornets allow that same number on the season. I think we see Indiana get to 120 and that means we need a mere 91 from Charlotte to cash. Give me the OVER 210!