10* NBA Over/Under PLAY OF THE MONTH

PLAY ON MAVS/GRIZZLIES OVER 229.5:

These two teams should have no problem eclipsing 230 points. I believe there's some value with this total due to the questionable tags on both Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic. I think both play. Irving returned from a 3-game absence on Friday and played 39 minutes. Doncic didn't play in that game, but he did practice fully on Thursday. Dallas has had the last two days off. That's quite a boost to their offense, which is averaging just 110.0 ppg over their last 5. 

Key is that Doncic and Irving are not good defenders. You don't got much shot containing this Memphis offense, even without Morant, if you aren't fully connected on the defensive end. Grizzlies defense hasn't been great of late, giving up 119+ in each of their last 3. Give me the OVER 229.5! 

10* NBA Non-Conf TOTAL OF THE WEEK

PLAY ON RAPTORS/CLIPPERS OVER 229: 

I don't see these two teams having any problem eclipsing 230 points in this game. Clippers have been in a lot of high-scoring games of late. OVER is 6-2 in LA's last 8 games. In 4 of their last 6, they have scored and allowed 120+ points in the same game. OVER is 3-0 in the last 3 for the Raptors. Toronto should be able to take advantage of the Clippers lackluster defense. I also don't see them slowing down LA's offense, especially on the road. Give me the OVER 229! 

10* NBA Over/Under VEGAS INSIDER

PLAY ON PELICANS/KINGS OVER 236.5:

Until the Kings cool off or start trying on the defensive end, the OVER has to be in serious consideration whenever they play. Since returning from the All-Star break, Sacramento has played 6 games and scored at least 123 in every game (over 130 points 3 times). They have shot better than 50% from the field in all of these games. 

During this run the Kings have allowed at least 115 points in every game. If we just take the two low marks during this run (123 and 115) that puts us at 238 points. The total should at least be that and even then I think there's value with the OVER. Give me the OVER 236.5! 

10* NCAAB Big 12 Total PLAY OF THE MONTH

PLAY ON IOWA STATE/WEST VIRGINIA OVER 134: I'm well aware of how bad the Cyclones offense has been in their last 3 games. Really bad. I like them to get back on track playing on their home floor. West Virginia is not a great defensive team and they have struggled to play well on that side of the ball in road games. They are allowing 46.6% shooting from the field away from home. ISU, who has shot 31% or worse twice in their last 3 games, is shooting 46.5% from the field in home games this season. 

These are also two teams that are really good at playing in chaos. ISU is No. 2 in the country in TO% defense. WV is a solid 50th in that department, they do an amazing job of speeding up their opponents with that press. Mountaineer opponents only average 16.7 seconds per possession, which is the 14th best mark in the country. 

I also look at the recent matchups between these two teams. Going back to the 2013 season, the lowest combined score in a game between ISU/W Virginia is 135 points back in 2020. The OVER is 13-1 in the L14 meetings! They combined for 147 points in a 76-71 Mountaineer win at home back on Feb. 8th. Give me the OVER 134! 

10* NCAAB Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER

PLAY ON OHIO STATE/IOWA OVER 152.5: I wanted to bet Iowa in this game, but I feel like the number here has been inflated to where there's just not enough value. I like the Hawkeyes largely because of how good they have been at home. Thing is, not only have they been great (11-3 ATS), the OVER has been great (10-4). 

That makes sense. Iowa likes to play super fast. While they have some good offensive players and are very efficiency (5th in the country), they aren't a great 3-PT shooting team (134th). Teams tend to shoot better at home. That's definitely the case for Iowa. Hawkeyes are scoring 89.0 ppg and shooting 38.5% at home this season (80.6 ppg and 35.1% on the season). 

Overs are also great at home with Iowa, because they aren't a very good defensive team. Opposing teams are shooting 48.6% from the field and 38% from 3 against them in conference play. Buckeyes are a shocking 1-11 over their last 12 games, but are 25th in offensive efficiency. They scored 93 points on 56.3% shooting. I think both teams easily eclipse the 70 point mark and this thing flies past the number. Give me the OVER 152.5! 

10* NBA Over/Under PLAY OF THE WEEK

PLAY ON MAVS/NUGGETS OVER 231.5: I'll take my chances with the OVER 231.5 in Wednesday's matchup between the Mavs and Nuggets. I mentioned this when I took the OVER in the Mavs' last game, I just don't think the books have properly adjusted for how much better the Mavs got offensively when they adding in Kyrie Irving. Teaming two of the NBA's most skilled offensive players together. We are just in the baby stages of this and it looks great. At least offensively. The defense is a different story. It's been bad and that was to be expected. The had to give up some good depth pieces in that trade and Irving's not exactly known for his defense. 

All of it adds up the total just not being high-enough. I think on a below-average night this Mavs offense will put up close to 120. With Dallas' defensive struggles and how good the Nuggets are offensively, they too should easily hit 120. This total should be closer to 240. Give me the OVER 231.5! 

10* NBA Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER 

Play on Timberwolves/Mavericks OVER 231.5: I just think there's tremendous value with the OVER in Mavs games right now. Dallas, who already had one of the best offensive players in the NBA in Doncic, added one of the best offensive players in the NBA in Kyrie Irving. Everything so far, looks like its going to work. Kyrie is playing amazing and in their first game with Irving/Doncic, the Mavs shot 52% from the field, with 20 made 3-pointers. Key here to the OVER, is while Irving is a nightmare on offense, he's not the best defendender. In that same game, Dallas allowed the Kings to shoot 51% from the field, as they lost 128-133 in OT. 

First game they will be together at home and they are facing a Timberwolves team that is giving up 116.8 ppg on the road this season and have allowed 123.4 ppg on 53% shooting over their last 5 games. Feels like a game where the Mavs can easily hit 130 points. That alone should have this total in the 240s. Give me the OVER 231.5! 

10* NBA Over/Under PLAY OF THE WEEK

PLAY ON RAPTORS/KINGS OVER 237: I will gladly take my chances with the OVER 237 in Wednesday's non-conference clash between the Raptors and Kings. 

I think the spread can sometimes give you a good feel for how the books see the game playing out. The fact that Toronto was just a 4.5-point dog when the line opened and has dropped to 3.5, tells me the books like the Raptors in this spot. Given that the Raptors have are 6-games under .500 and losers of 3 of their last 4, the books know everyone is going to be on Sacramento, given the Kings come in having won 7 of their last 8 and fresh off a 133-100 blowout win over the Grizzlies. 

I'm not quite ready to bet against the Kings as a small home favorite, but I do think there's big time value with the OVER. Given how good the Kings offense is, especially at home (124.7 ppg), you have to think the only way for Toronto to cover is for them to win in a shootout. I agree and I think I'm with the books in that we aren't going to get a huge effort defensively from Sacramento in this game. 

On the flip side, the Raptors just played a 3-game road trip at New York, Milwaukee and Minnesota, where they gave up 121 to the Knicks, 130 to the Bucks and 128 to the T-Wolves. This is one of those games where I will be shocked if both teams don't hit at least 120 points. Give me the OVER 237! 

10* NBA Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER

PLAY ON UNDER 239.5: The total here is simply too high given the tough scheduling spots we find both of these teams. I got to think both of these teams are going to be looking to slow the tempo down. 

The Hawks are playing their 3rd game in 4 nights after a 139-124 blowout win over the Knicks on Friday and then a 118-122 loss at home to the Hornets on Saturday. Worth noting it's just not a bad short-term stretch for rest with the Hawks. This will also be their 7th game in the last 11 days. As for the Bulls, they are playing on a full 3 days of rest, but their last game was played in Paris. 

For this game to go over the number, both teams are likely going to have to score in the 120's. I wouldn't be shocked if neither team got to 120. Give me the UNDER 238.5! 

10* NFL Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: Cowboys/Bucs OVER 45.5

I'll take my chances with the OVER 45.5 in Monday's NFC Wild Card showdown between the Cowboys and Bucs. I'm well aware that Tampa Bay beat Dallas by a score of just 19-3 during the regular-season. That was back in Week 1. 

I'm focused more on what I've seen from these two teams over the last 4-6 weeks of the regular-season. For Dallas, they have really had to rely heavily on their offense, as the defense that looked so good early on in the year has been exposed on several occasions. The OVER had cashed in 5 straight before they went UNDER in their last two. Thing is in Week 17 they played at the Titans who have no offense and were resting guys leading up to their big game vs the Jags in Week 18. Dallas then had a pretty meaningless game in Week 18 at Washington and it showed in their 6-26 loss. 

Tampa Bay's defense is good and does matchup well with their ability to stop the run, but Dak should be able to exploit this season for the Bucs. TB was great at holding bad offenses with average QBs in check, but they struggled against the more efficient QBs. 

As for the Tampa Bay offense, I think they showed a lot of good signs down the stretch. Brady threw for 411 yards in their division-clinching win over the Panthers in Week 17. I'm pretty confident the Bucs will move the ball in this one. I just think there's going to be more than enough scoring to get this game into the 50s. Give me the OVER 45.5! 

10* NCAAB Big Ten TOTAL OF THE MONTH: Rutgers/Northwestern UNDER 126.5

I love the UNDER 126.5 in Wednesday's Big Ten matchup between Rutgers and Northwestern. These aren't just two of the best defensive teams in the Big Ten, they are two of the best in the country. With two sub-par offenses on the court and two teams that prefer a slower pace, it will be a struggle for either team to get to 60 points. 

Northwestern is No. 10 in the country in defensive efficiency and 22nd in Effective FG%. Rutgers is No. 242 in effective FG% offense. Scarlet Knights are 282nd in 3P% and are facing a Northwestern defense that is No. 2 in 2P% defense. 

Rutgers is No. 3 in defensive efficiency and No. 9 in effective FG% defense. They are No. 7 in 3P% defense and No. 27 in 2P% defense. Northwestern is No. 337 in effective offensive FG%, No. 270 in 3P% and No. 341 in 2P%. 

Add in Rutgers being No. 246 in adjusted tempo and Northwestern being No. 232, I just don't know where the points are going to come from to get this close to this total. Give me the UNDER 126.5! 

10* NBA Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: Magic/Blazers OVER 229.5

I'll take my chances with the OVER 229.5 in Tuesday's matchup between the Magic and Blazers. I don't see these two teams having much trouble eclipsing 230 points. Orlando will be playing this game on no rest after last night's 111-136 loss at Sacramento. OVER is 5-2 in the second leg of back-to-back games with Orlando this season. Magic are giving up 120 ppg in this spot. OVER is 4-1 in Portland's last 5 home games, with the lone exception being a game against the Hornets that went UNDER despite the two teams combining for 237 points. Blazers have put up 127.2 ppg during this 5-game home stretch. 

You got to go into this game expecting Portland to at the very least put up 120 points, which means we would need just 110 from Orlando to cash this ticket. A mark the Magic have hit in 13 of their last 16 games. Blazers allow 112.1 ppg on the season. I just think with how easy it's going to be on offense, the effort isn't going to be all that great on defense. As long as Orlando doesn't go ice cold in this game, we cash this easy. Give me the OVER 229.5! 

10* National Championship VEGAS INSIDER: TCU/Georgia OVER 63.5

I'll take my chances with the OVER 63.5 in Monday's National Championship Game between TCU and Georgia. We saw all kinds of points being scored in the two Semifinal matchups with TCU beating Michigan 51-45 and Georgia knocking off Ohio State 42-41. I don't know if we will see this thing get into the 80's, but there should be no problem eclipsing the total of 63.5. 

TCU is simply built for high-scoring games. They have an elite offense and a sub-par defense. I don't see Georgia having any problems moving the ball up and down the field on this Horned Frogs stop unit. They were fortunate to only give up 45 points to the Wolverines in the Fiesta Bowl. 

The TCU offense did show me something with how well they moved the ball against a very good Michigan defense. The same Wolverines defense that held a potent Ohio State offense to just 23 points, giving up only 3 points in the 2nd half. We just saw the Buckeyes put up 41 on Georgia's defense. Not to mention the Bulldogs gave up 30 to LSU in the SEC title game. I think TCU can easily get into the 30s and I expect Georgia to as well. Give me the OVER 63.5! 

10* NBA Over/Under VEGAS INSIDER: Clippers/Nuggets OVER 227.5

I'll take my chances with the OVER 227.5 in Thursday's showdown between the Clippers and Nuggets. LA could be without Paul George for this game, which is a big loss for the Clippers offense. However, they should be just fine offensively against a leaky Denver defense that ranks 27th in defensive efficiency. 

These two teams combined for 110 in their previous meeting this season, but LA didn't have George or Kawhi Leonard. Kawhi has been playing consistently for a good stretch now and has put in 20+ points in 3 of his last 4 games. John Wall tormented Denver's defense for 23 points on 8 of 10 shooting in that first meeting. Leonard and Wall should provide a solid 1-2 punch in this one. 

As for the Clippers defense, it's certainly not as good without George on the floor. LA is a team that I think struggles to defend the big men inside and Denver has the best in the business down low in Jokic. Nuggets offense as a whole ranks 2nd in the NBA behind only the Celtics in offensive efficiency. Give me the OVER 227.5! 

10* NBA - Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH: Spurs/Knicks OVER 226.5

I'll take my chances with the OVER 226.5 in Wednesday's game between the Spurs and Knicks. There's not much you really need to look at here besides how recent San Antonio games have gone. The OVER has cashed in 8 straight and 11 of the last 12 games the Spurs have played. The only game that didn't was against the Heat, who play at one of the slowest paces in the league. 

San Antonio has allowed at least 115 points in 7 straight games, 6 times giving up 122 or more. They are scoring 115.5 ppg over their last 13. This team is built for shootouts and I just don't think this total should be less than 230. 

Knicks are extremely well rested. Their only game so far in January was Monday's 102-83 win at home over the Suns, where they coasted after getting a big lead early. I don't see them having any problem scoring 120+ points in this one. Spurs at the very least should give us around 110. That's more than enough to cash this ticket. Give me the OVER 226.5! 

10* NFL NFC South TOTAL OF THE YEAR: Panthers/Bucs UNDER 40.5

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 40.5 in Sunday's huge NFC South matchup between the Panthers and Bucs. 

I know Carolina just put up 37 points and 570 total yards in last week's 14-point win at home over the Lions, but that's not a very good Lions defense. It's also a Detroit defense that struggles to stop the run and this Panthers offense is built around their run game. 

Running the football on the Bucs will be a much more difficult task. Keep in mind the Panthers did run for 173 yards at home in their previous meeting with Tampa Bay and still only managed 21 points. 

Tampa Bay could only manage a field goal in that first matchup, as the game saw a mere 24 combined points. Things haven't gotten a whole lot better for the Bucs offense as the season has went on. TB has scored fewer than 20 points in 4 of their last 5 games with a 23-point showing against the Bengals being their highest output during this stretch. 

You add in 1st place in the NFC South being up for grabs and I just think we are going to have a playoff like atmosphere in Tampa Bay on Sunday. I think that only helps us, as I see both offenses playing more to not screw it up than taking a bunch of chances. Either way, I don't see this getting into the 40s. Give me the UNDER 40.5! 

10* NCAAB Over/Under VEGAS INSIDER: Kansas/Missouri OVER 152.5

I will gladly take my chances with the OVER 152.5 in Saturday's matchup between Missouri and Kansas. This to me feels like a race to 80 points. Missouri may be 9-0 because of their schedule, but don't let that fool you into thinking this isn't a good team. I think they landed a gem at head coach in Dennis Gates from Cleveland State. They got 3 guys who can get buckets with returning leading scorer Kobe Brown (14.3 ppg), Cleveland State transfer D'Moi Hodge (16.7 ppg) and UNI transfer Noah Carter. They also get double-digits from Fordham/Clemson transfer Nick Honor (10.0 ppg) and UMass/Bradley transfer Sean East II (10.0). 

They are No. 12 in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, No. 3 in Eff. FG% and No. 2 in 2-PT%. They play at the 4th fastest game tempo in the country and own the 8th shortest average in time of possession. They are No. 4 defensively in TO%. This team wants to run and gun and keep it movin.

I don't see Kansas playing keep away. I think the Jayhawks will gladly turn this into a track meet. I also think they have the talent int he backcourt to not turn it over crazy. If you avoid the turnover, this Missouri defense has plenty of holes. 

Kansas ranks 51st in least amount of shot clock used. Yes they played a lower-scoring games vs Tennessee, Duke and Wisconsin, but all those teams rank outside the Top 125 in shot clock time used. 

Kansas has played 3 games vs teams who rank in the Top 65 in this stat. They combined for 158 in a 82-76 win over NC State (No. 39), combined for 154 with NC State in a 80-74 win (No. 43) and 156 in a 91-65 win over Seton Hall (No. 63). Give me the OVER 152.5! 

10* NBA Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: Bucks/Mavs UNDER 224.5

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 224.5 in Friday's showdown between the Bucks and Mavs on ESPN. I'm expecting a pretty big effort from these two in this nationally televised game. Milwaukee comes into this game ranked 3rd in the NBA in defensive efficiency and I really like the fact that they got an elite perimeter defender in Jrue Holiday to put on Luka Doncic. 

I also don't feel like the Mavs get enough respect on the defensive side of the ball at home. Dallas is only giving up 104.4 ppg on 45.9% shooting at home this year. The Bucks are also a different offensive team at home. Milwaukee is averaging 113.1 ppg on 46% shooting for the season, yet are scoring just 106.3 ppg on 43% shooting on the road. UNDER has cashed in 7 of the 9 road games for the Bucks this season. 

UNDER is 20-7 in the Mavs last 27 as a home dog and 9-1 in their last 10 at home when they are playing 8 or more games in a 14 day stretch. UNDER is 20-9 in Milwaukee's last 29 with a line of +3 to -3 and 18-8 in their last 26 as a road favorite of 6 or less. Give me the UNDER 224.5! 

10* NFL Thursday Night Football VEGAS INSIDER: Raiders/Rams OVER 43.5

I'll take my chances with the OVER 43.5 between the Raiders and Rams on Thursday Night Football. If the Raiders don't push for 30 points in this game, I would be shocked. This Las Vegas offense has quietly been playing well over the last month. In their last 4 games, they have scored on 45% of their possessions, which is the 3rd best mark in the league over that span. Carr is really playing well right now. In their 3-game win streak leading up to this game, he's thrown for 284 ypg, averaging just over 8.0 yards/attempt. 

He'll be facing a Rams defense that has given up at least 26 points in each of their last 4 games. One that is without what many consider to be the best defensive player in the league in Aaron Donald. They also don't have their second best defensive lineman in A'Shawn Robinson. I don't see how they slow down Josh Jacobs in this game. If they can't, that should only open up things more for Carr thru the air. 

It's not as promising when you look at the Rams offense, which is why I think we are getting such great value with this total. As hard as it is to believe, Baker Mayfield may actually start this game after being with the team for just a couple of days. I know Mayfield has been awful, but it's not like this is some massive drop off in talent from John Wolford or Bryce Perkins. I'll put some faith in McVay figuring out something that gives Mayfield a chance in this game. 

This is not a great Raiders defense and it's one that has struggled to take down the opposing quarterback. Las Vegas' 21 sacks is the 28th worst mark in the league. That's a big plus for Mayfield's chances. All we need here is a 27-17 type of game. Give me the OVER 43.5! 

10* Thurs. Night Football TOTAL OF THE YEAR: Bills/Patriots OVER 43.5

I'll take my chances with the OVER 43.5 in Thursday's AFC East showdown between the Bills and Patriots. I just feel the total here should be closer to 48. I know this is a division matchup, but I see both offenses putting up points. 

It felt like Allen figured out this New England defense last year. He had 33 points and 428 total yards in the first meeting and then came back in the next matchup and put up 47 points and 482 total yards. 

Yes, Allen has not played at the MVP level we expect from him in his last few games. I do think he's dealing with some kind of injury to that elbow. However, this offense is far from broken. Bills are averaging 29.7 ppg, 414.7 ypg and 6.2 yards/play over their last 3 games. 

I'm also not convinced this Patriots defense is as good as what people think. Prior to giving up 33 points and 358 yards to the Vikings, the Patriots previous 7 games came against the following quarterbacks. Zach Wilson (twice), Sam Ehlinger, Justin Fields, Jacoby Brissett and Jared Goff (without Amon St. Brown). Aaron Rodgers and the Packers put up 27 on them with over 400 yards of offense and Lamar Jackson guided Baltimore to 37 points. This team has simply not played great defensively against top tier quarterbacks. 

As for the Pats offense, I definitely feel like it's got better as the season has went along. Mac Jones seems a lot more comfortable than he did a few weeks ago. I also think this Bills defense is hurting and is going to really miss Von Miller. Miller was a game wrecker for this defense. He led the team with 8.5 sacks. The next best is Greg Rosseau with 5 (only two other guys have 2 or more). Bad quarterbacks can look good when there's no pressure. Give me the OVER 43.5! 

10* NBA Over/Under TOTAL PLAY OF THE WEEK: Suns/Kings OVER 231.5

I'll take my chances with the OVER 231.5 in Monday's NBA matchup between the Suns and Kings. I don't see these two teams having much trouble eclipsing this number. The Kings are seeing an average combined score of 241.8 ppg at home this season, as they are scoring 123.9 ppg and giving up 117.9 ppg. 

Phoenix is allowing just 107.7 ppg and 45.5% shooting for the season, but they are not the same defensive team on the road as they are at home. Suns are allowing 112.3 ppg and 48% shooting on the road. 

These are two of the most efficient offensive teams in the league, as they come in tied for 3rd in offensive efficiency at 113.4. Kings should be able to control the tempo here as well, as they are playing on a full 2 days of rest, while Phoenix is playing their 3rd game in 4 nights. Give me the OVER 231.5! 

10* NCAAF Big 12 TOTAL OF THE MONTH: Iowa St/TCU UNDER 48

I really like the UNDER 48 in Saturday's Big 12 shodown that has Iowa State going on the road to face TCU. I think the only real concern here is that the Cyclones don't show up given last week's 10-14 loss to Texas Tech ended any hope they had of getting to 6 wins and a bowl game. 

It's certainly a possibility and if that's the case we are probably in trouble. However, I feel pretty good about ISU not just throwing in the towel. Not against TCU. It would be one thing if TCU was 9-2 and needing this win to get to the Big 12 title game. The Horned Frogs are undefeated and ranked No. 4 in the country. I got to think ISU will be motivated here to put that perfect season to rest and really treat this game like it's their Super Bowl given it's the last time they will be on the field together. 

That to me is the key, because if the Cyclones defense shows up, there doesn't figure to be a lot of points scored in this game because this ISU defense is elite and their offense is at the other end of the spectrum. Cyclones have scored 21 or fewer points in more games than they have eclipsed that mark. I just don't see them doing a lot against this TCU defense. 

As for the Cyclones defense, I think they are better or at least equal to the Texas defense that held this TCU team to just 17 points and 284 total yards a couple weeks back. Give me the UNDER 48! 

10* NCAAB - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: Nebraska-Omaha/Iowa OVER 156.5

I'll take my chances with the OVER 156.5 in Monday's non-conference matchup between Iowa and Nebraska-Omaha. I just don't think this total is near enough, as I really think we could see this Iowa team push the 100 point mark in this one. 

The Hawkeyes have been elite on the offensive end to start the year. They are 3rd in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency. They also love to push the tempo, ranking 37th in adjusted tempo and 8th in average possession length. That offense is going to be up against one of the worst defenses in the country. The Mavericks rank 333rd out of 363 DI schools in adjusted defensive efficiency. We saw Kansas put up 89 on them earlier this year and as good as the Jayhawks are, they are just 24th in Adj OE and 29th in possession length. 

The other big thing difference between Iowa and Kansas is the Hawkeyes aren't nearly as good defensively. There are plenty of easy buckets to be had against this Iowa defense. I also think this is not a game where the Hawkeyes are going to be all that locked in defensively. One, it's hard to play all out on defense when you are scoring at will. Two, it's a bit of a flat spot for their defense coming off that big win over Seton Hall, it being Thanksgiving week and a big game on deck against Clemson looming Friday. Give me the OVER 156.5! 

10* NFL Over/Under PLAY OF THE MONTH: Lions/Bears OVER 48.5

I will gladly take my chances with the OVER 48.5 in Sunday's NFC North showdown between the Lions and Bears. Chicago might be my favorite OVER team in the league right now. Justin Fields and the Bears offense has completely done a 180 from the start of the year. In their last 3 games Chicago is averaging 31.3 ppg and 376.3 ypg. 

This is an ideal matchup for the Bears offense, which is built around their running game, most notabely the running ability of Fields. Lions defense is not very good. Don't be fooled by them playing well last week against a bad Packers offense. Detroit is giving up 4.9 rush yards/play and 147 rushing yards/game on the season. 

While the Bears offense has turned into a bit of a juggernaut, the defense has become one of the worst. The trades of Quinn and Smith really hit hard and this defense has shown no ability to get off the field of late. Their defense is giving up 32.7 ppg, 360.3 ypg and 6.9 yards/play in their last 3 games. Not even some less than ideal conditions in Chicago are going to keep these two teams from putting up 50+ points. Give me the OVER 48.5! 

10* NBA Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: Nuggets/Celtics OVER 230.5

I'll take my chances with the OVER 230.5 in Friday's showdown between the Nuggets and Celtics. I don't see these two teams having any problem getting into the 230s. Boston has seen an average combined score of 237.2 points in their 5 home games this year. Denver has seen an average combined score of 235.6 in their 7 road games. 

These are the two most efficient offenses in the league with Boston ranking first in offensive efficiency and the Nuggets in second. Not only that, but both of these teams rank in the bottom 10 of the league in defensive efficiency. Unless we get some dreadful shooting by both teams, this should easily get past the number, as I think both of these teams will finish in the 120s. Give me the OVER 230.5! 

10* NCAAF AAC TOTAL OF THE MONTH: Tulsa/Memphis OVER 61.5 

I'll take my chances with the OVER 61.5 in Thursday's American Athletic matchup between Tulsa and Memphis. I don't see these two teams having any problem eclipsing this number. Both of these teams have struggled on the defensive side of the ball. Tulsa is giving up 33 ppg and 404 ypg this season and have allowed 36 ppg on the road. Memphis is giving up 31.6 ppg and 412 ypg. They have given up 40 ppg over their last 3.

The only two FBS teams Tulsa has held under 30 points, are Temple who is anemic on offense and Tulane, who plays extremely slow and probably should have had more than the 27 they scored given they had over 480 yards with 357 on the ground. Teams have been able to really do whatever they want against this defense. I don't see them slowing down this Memphis on the road. The Tigers are putting up 33.9 ppg and on average are scoring 8.2 ppg more than what their opponent has allowed. 

Memphis has allowed 30+ points in each of their last 4 games and 6 of their last 7. The only exception coming against Temple. Tulsa has scored 27 or more in 6 of their 9 games this season. 

These are also going to be two tired defenses, as both of these teams are playing this game on just 4 days of rest. Give me the OVER 61.5! 

10* NCAAF Tuesday MACtion VEGAS INSIDER: Ohio/Miami (OH) OVER 50.5

I'll take my chances with the OVER 50.5 in Tuesday's MAC matchup between Ohio and Miami (OH). These two teams combined for 68 points in the Bobcats 35-33 win over the RedHawks a season ago. I wouldn't be surprised at all if we saw a similar high-scoring game in the rematch, making this an easy play for me with a total in the low 50's. 

l just don't see Miami (OH) having an answer for Bobcats' quarterback Kurtis Rourke, who has put up sensational numbers in 2022. Rourke is averaging over 300 yards/game thru the air with a 21-4 TD-INT ratio and a stellar 9.0 yards/pass attempt. His ability to throw the ball plays right into the weakness of this RedHawks defense, which is just not good at creating havoc in the passing game. 

On the flip side of this, I like Miami's offense to also have a lot of success throwing the football in this game. The RedHawks just recently got back starting quarterback Brett Gabbert, who was hurt in their opener against Kentucky. Gabbert has been a little rusty in his first two starts back, but will be up against a Ohio defense that has struggled to get stops this season. The Bobcats are giving up 33.2 ppg, 483 ypg and 6.5 yards/play. They have been especially bad against the pass, allowing opposing QBs to complete 66.3% of their attempts with a 8.3 average per attempt. Give me the OVER 50.5! 

10* NFL Over/Under PLAY OF THE MONTH: Vikings/Commanders OVER 43.5

I will gladly take my chances with the OVER 43.5 between the Vikings and Commanders on Sunday. This to me is way too low a total for this matchup. I get Washington's offense hasn't been able to do much of late, scoring 17 or fewer points in 5 of their last 6 games. Thing is, those low offensive outputs have come against some pretty good defensive teams in the Colts, Packers, Titans, Cowboys and Eagles. Note that while they did only score 17 vs Tennessee, they had 342 passing yards in that game. 

Minnesota comes into this game at 6-1, but their early season success has all been a result of their high-powered offense. Not their defense. The Vikings come into this game scoring 24.7 ppg and have scored at least 23 points in all but one game (vs the Eagles). Their defense is not very good, giving up 383 yards/game and 6.2 yards/play. They are especially bad vs the pass, as opposing QBs are completing 68.9% of their attempts against them. 

Simply put, this is a game where I think both offenses will be able to move the football and put points on the scoreboard. I like both of these teams to at the very minimum eclipse the 20-point mark and that should be more than enough to push us past this low total. Give me the OVER 43.5! 

10* NCAAF - Friday Night Total NO-BRAINER: Oregon St/Washington UNDER 54.5

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 54.5 in Friday's Pac-12 matchup between Washington and Oregon State. I just don't see this being a shootout. I know Washington has played in a lot of high-scoring games, but this Oregon State defense really matches up well with what the Huskies like to do offensively.

Washington is all about attacking teams thru the air. They come in averaging 379 passing yards/game. Passing on this Oregon State defense is not easy. Opposing quarterbacks are completing just 55.6% of their attempts against the Beavers and that's against QBs that on average are completing 62.5% of their attempts. Mother Nature could also slow down the Huskies ariel attack, as there will be 15-20 mph with the real feel in the upper 30s. 

Oregon State on the other hand is going to establish the run and as long as they are within striking distance, I don't see them abandoning it. Beavers on average run 66 plays and 39 (59%) of those are runs. They are pretty good at it, averaging 5.0 yards/carry. I think they can move the chains on the ground, but I also think Washington's run defense is good enough to limit the explosive plays and create the negative plays to end drives. Give me the UNDER 54.5! 

10* NBA Over/Under PLAY OF THE MONTH: Knicks/Hornets OVER 224

I love the OVER 224 in Wednesday's matchup between the Knicks and Hornets. I'm shocked the total here isn't in the 230s. Both these teams are looking to play fast early on. Charlotte comes in ranked 3rd in the NBA in pace at 105.6 and New York is 12th at 101.9. Not only are these to pushing the tempo, they are two of the most efficient offensive teams. Charlotte ranks 3rd in offensive efficiency at 116.7 points per 100 possessions and the Knicks are 89th at 112.8 points per 100 possessions. Each of the Hornets 3 games have seen a combined score of 231 or more points, while the Knicks are seeing an average combined score of 226.7 points thru their first 3 games. Give me the OVER 224! 

10* NFL - Thursday Night MAX UNIT Top Play: Saints/Cardinals OVER 43.5 

I love the OVER 44.5 on Thursday Night Football in Week 7, as we have the Saints visiting the Cardinals. There has been nearly no offense in these Thursday matchups the last two weeks. First it was the 12-9 OT win for the Colts against the Seahawks in Week 5. Then we saw the Commanders prevail 12-7 last week. I believe that is definitely playing into the number being much lower than it should be.  

I also think the total here is being impacted by what we saw last week with Arizona's offense in a 9-19 loss at Seattle. It's not so much they lost, but the fact that the Cardinals couldn't even reach double-figures against a Seattle defense that came into that game viewed as one of the worst defensive teams in the league.  

It is worth noting that Arizona did have multiple drives into Seahawks territory that resulted in no points. The offense also figures to get a HUGE boost this week with the return of DeAndre Hopkins. I also think the Saints defense is being way overvalued. New Orleans has not played well at all on that side of the ball the past few weeks. In their last 3 games the Saints are giving up 30.0 ppg, 362.7 ypg and 6.8 yards/play. 

I also think people are sleeping a bit on this Saints offense because it's Andy Dalton at quarterback. New Orleans has scored 25 or more in 3 straight games. Arizona is giving up a staggering 28.0 ppg, 395 ypg and 6.6 yards/play at home this season. Give me the OVER 43.5

10* NCAAF - Late Night TOTAL OF THE MONTH: Arizona/Oregon OVER 69.5

I love the OVER 69.5 in Saturday's late night action out of the Pac-12 between No. 12 Oregon and Arizona. I'm not so sure the books can set a total high enough for this one. If it wasn't for the fact that the Ducks scored just 3-points in that ugly opening loss to Georgia, I think it would be at the very least in the mid 70s. 

In the 4 games since getting completely shutdown by the defending champs, Oregon has put up 70 points and 604 total yards against Eastern Washington, 41 points and 439 yards on BYU, 44 points and 624 yards on Washington State (Cougars have allowed 20 or fewer in every other game) and 45 points and 515 yards in last week's blowout win over Stanford. 

It feels like anything less than 40 points against this Arizona defense would be a disappointment. In the Wildcats two conference games, they have allowed 49 points to Cal and 20 points to Colorado. In Cal's 3 other games vs a FBS opponent they have scored a combined 46 points. The Buffaloes 20-points they scored on the Wildcats was a season-high. Arizona is giving up 31.2 ppg vs teams who on average score 24.9 ppg. 

They key here is think the Wildcats have the talent at quarterback and skill positions to put up enough points to push this thing well past the mark. Arizona has scored at least 31 points in all but one game against a very good Mississippi State defense. They are averaging 481 ypg and 6.6 yards/play. 

Oregon's defense has been solid in their 3 home games, but they gave up that 49 points on a neutral site to Georgia, which is looking worse and worse with how the Bulldogs have struggled offensively of late and 41 at Washington State. This could very well end up being the highest scoring game on the board this Saturday. Give me the OVER 69.5! 

10* NCAAF Pac-12 Over/Under PLAY OF THE MONTH: Washington/UCLA UNDER 65.5

I love the UNDER 65.5 in Friday's Pac-12 showdown between No. 15 Washington and UCLA. Both of these teams come into this game with a perfect 4-0 record. The big reason we are seeing such a big total is the offensive numbers that these two teams have put up. The Huskies are scoring 44.0 ppg and 531 ypg, while the Bruins are putting up 41.8 ppg and 508 ypg. 

I don't think either of these teams will be able to sustain these numbers. Yes, Washington has two wins over Power 5 teams in Michigan State and Stanford, but both of those teams are bad defensive teams. Michigan State gave up 34 points and 508 total yards last week at home against Minnesota. USC had 505 yards and 41 points against the Cardinal and then only managed to score 17 with 357 total yards in 3-point win at Oregon State. 

As for UCLA's great offensive numbers, it's come against a super soft schedule. Bruins 4 games have come against Bowling Green, Alabama St, S Alabama and Colorado. Those teams combined are giving up an average of 38.1 ppg. 

The other big thing here is these two defenses are performing well. Washington is only giving up 19.0 ppg, 302 ypg and 4.8 yards/play. UCLA is allowing 18.0 ppg, 301 ypg and 4.4 yards/play. 

Another thing that could work against the Huskies offense, is the fact that this will be Washington's first road game of 2022. 

These two are going to need a minimum of 10 scores (9 TDs and 1 FG is 66 points) to get past this number. I just don't think the red zone efficiency is going to be at that level. Give me the UNDER 65.5! 

10* NFL Vegas Insider TOTAL OF THE MONTH: Chiefs/Colts OVER 50

I love the OVER 50 in Sunday's Week 3 NFL matchup between the Chiefs and Colts. I'm actually shocked this number is as low as it is. I know it was the defense that stepped up and really carried KC to a victory last week in their big game against the Chargers, but there might not be a better top to bottom defensive unit in the NFL than what LA has on the field. 

Mahomes was still able to complete 24 of 35 attempts for 235 yards and 2 TDs. Good but not great numbers. I expect the offense to resemble more of what we saw in their 44-21 win over the Cardinals in Week 1. A game in which they had 488 total yard with Mahomes throwing for 360 and 5 scores. 

Especially after watching how poorly the Colts looked in last week's 24-0 loss to the Jaguars. They let Trevor Lawrence complete 25 of 30 attempts. They are going to have no answer for this Chiefs offense. 

The key here is I do think the Colts will be able to at least score enough here to make it somewhat competitive. Getting shutout by the Jags is bad, but the Colts were very thin in that game at receiver. They are getting guys back at that spot and will be facing a Chiefs defense that could be a little flat after that huge game against the Charger and Tom Brady and the Bucs looming next week. KC also lost one of their better defensive players in linebacker Willie Gay to a 4-game suspension. I'm seeing like a 38-28 type of game here with the potential for even more scoring. Give me the OVER 50! 

10* NFL Monday Night Football VEGAS INSIDER: Vikings/Eagles OVER 50

I'll take my chances with the OVER 50 in tonight's Monday Night Football matchup between the Vikings and Eagles. I think these are two of the better offensive teams in the league. Both looked great in Week 1. 

Philadelphia put up 38 in Week 1 on the road against a much improved Lions team and didn't score a point in the 4th quarter after taking their foot off the gas up 38-21. Eagles had 216 rushing yards and 243 thru the air. I know the Vikings defense looked good in Week 1 against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, but a lot of that had to do with Green Bay not playing any of their guys in the preseason. 

As for the Vikings offense, they scored 23 points, had 395 total yards and averaged 6.5 yards/play against a top tier Packers defense. Minnesota figures to be a Top 10, maybe Top 5, offense this season under new head coach Kevin O'Connell. Eagles defense gave up 35 points and 386 total yards to an average Lions offense. Minnesota should be able to do as they please in this one. Give me the OVER 50! 

10* NFL Over/Under PLAY OF THE MONTH: Panthers/Giants OVER 43

I'll gladly take my chances with the OVER 43 in Sunday's matchup between the Giants and Panthers. I came into this season really excited about the potential of New York's offense, as I expect some pretty significant improvements now that Brian Daboll as their head coach. They also added Mike Kafa as their OC, who comes over after serving as an assistant under Andy Reid in Kansas City. 

It was why I really like the OVER 43.5 in the Giants Week 1 game against Tennessee. Even with the Giants getting shutout in the 1st half of that game, we would have cashed the OVER had the Titans kicker hit a 47-yarder at the end of regulation. 

Considering that the Giants averaged 6.8 yards/play (3rd best mark of any team in Week 1 behind on the Chiefs and Bills) and the Titans averaged 6.0 yards/play (9th best), it's hard to believe we didn't get the OVER in that game. 

With that said, I'm not letting that outcome keep me from backing the OVER with the Giants in Week 2, as we see a mere total of 43. 

Much like the Giants in Week 1, Carolina's offense was basically a no show for the 1st half before coming alive in the 2nd half. Panthers had just 7 points going into the 4th quarter and finished with 24. I know Mayfield didn't play great, but that's a pretty good Browns defense. He should have a much easier time against this Giants defense. I also would expect a little more out of Christian McCaffrey. 

As for the Panthers defense, I think they are solid on that side of the ball, but we did see them give up 26 points to the Browns who don't offer much of a threat in the passing game with Brissett at quarterback. Daniel Jones will be a much tougher challenge to stop and I could see the Panthers having a difficult time containing Saquon Barkley, which is going to only make it easier on Jones with the defense forced to play the run. Give me the OVER 43! 

10* MLB Over/Under PLAY OF THE MONTH (UNDER 7.5) 

Really like the UNDER 7.5 in Tuesday's game between the Padres and Mariners. It was a pitchers duel last night in the series opener. Seattle won the game 2-0. No surprise to see these two play tight low scoring games. Not just the talent on the mound, but also how much is at stake for both of these teams. 

The Padres only hope of making the playoffs is the Wild Card and there's only two up for grabs in a 3-team race (Braves or Mets are all but locked into the top Wild Card spot). As of today they hold the last spot, but are just 2 up on the Brewers. 

For Cleveland it's really looking like their only path to the postseason is to win the AL Central (Wild Card isn't out of the question). Right now they are just 3 up on the White Sox and 5 up on Chicago. Every game means a ton to them right now. 

I also love the starting pitching matchup here with Louis Castillo and Mike Clevinger. Castillo has been great since coming to Seattle. Clevinger has a 7.43 ERA in his last 3 starts, but two of those were against the Dodgers. In his last 7 starts against a team not named the Dodgers, Clevinger has allowed 2 or fewer runs 6 times and gave up 3 in another. Play the UNDER 7.5! 

10* NCAAF - SEC Total PLAY OF THE MONTH: S Carolina/Arkansas OVER 52.5

I will take my chances with the OVER 52.5 in Saturday's SEC matchup between Arkansas and South Carolina. This to me is just way too low a total for a game involving the Razorbacks. 

Arkansas is absolutely loaded on the offensive side of the ball and it starts with sophomore quarterback KJ Jefferson, who somehow is still flying a bit under the radar. Jefferson is special and the biggest reason why the Razorbacks went 9-4 last year after not winning more than 4 games in any of the previous 4 seasons. It also helps he's playing behind one of the better offensive lines in the country. Arkansas put up 30.9 ppg and 442 ypg last year and will easily top that in 2022. 

They scored 31 points with 447 yards against Cincinnati in the opener. I know the Bearcats lost some guys on the defensive side of the ball, but that was far from a pushover for the Arkansas offense. I don't see South Carolina's defense being able to stop them, especially with the game in Fayetteville. 

The key here is I also think South Carolina's offense is poised to put up some points in this game. They gave up 438 yards (325 passing) to a Cincinnati offense that lost one of their all-time best QBs in Desmond Ridder, as well as their top back and leading receiver. 

Both starting safety Jalen Catalon and starting nickel corner Myles Slusher were hurt in that game and did not return. Good chance neither play on Saturday. 

South Carolina's offense wasn't overly impressive in their win against Georgia State, but remember they got former Oklahoma starter Spencer Rattler under center. Rattler can spark big plays and quick scores and he's also one that will take chances and give the ball away, setting up short fields and quick scores for the other side. Give me the OVER 52.5! 

10* NFL Thursday Night VEGAS INSIDER: Bills/Rams OVER 52

My money is on the OVER 52 in Thursday's highly anticipated season opener between the Buffalo Bills and Los Angeles Rams. I don't see these two teams have any problem eclipsing this number. In fact, I wouldn't be shocked if this thing went well into the 60s. 

These were two of the best offenses in the league last year. The Rams finished 9th in the NFL in total offense (372.1 ypg) and T-7th in scoring (27.1 ppg). Buffalo has the No. 5 ranked total offense (381.9 ypg) and the No. 3 ranked scoring offense (28.4 ppg). 

I don't see any letdown coming from Josh Allen and the Bills offense in 2022. I also love the matchup for Buffalo in this one. The Bills are a pass-first offense and the Rams are much better suited at stopping the run. LA was 22nd in the league last year defending the pass (241.7 ypg). 

The big concern some might have is the health of Matthew Stafford's elbow and LA facing what many believe to be a strong Bills defense. I personally think the injury is being a bit overblown. If it was serious he wouldn't be out there in Week 1.

I also think Buffalo's defense comes in way overrated. When you look at who who they played and who was on the field when they played their opponents, the Bills caught a lot of breaks. They are also going to be starting the season without Tre-Davious White.

Look for new Rams wide out Allen Robinson to play a big role, as I feel he was one of the more underrated signings in the entire offseason. Give me the OVER 52! 

10* MLB - Over/Under PLAY OF THE MONTH: Nationals/Cardinals OVER 8

I love the OVER 8 in Tuesday's matchup between the Cardinals and Nationals. Washington is swinging a red-hot bat right now. They were unlucky scoring just 6 runs yesterday, as they left a staggering 14 guys on base. Nationals are hitting a scorching .308 as a team over their last 7 games. 

I like that offense to stay hot against the Cardinals' Jose Quintana, who has a 4.38 ERA and 2.188 WHIP in his last 3 starts. I also like St Louis to score early and often in this one. Washington is sending out Paolo ESpino, who is 0-6 with a 5.06 ERA and 1.399 WHIP in 15 starts. Give me the OVER 8! 

10* NCAAF Friday Night TOTAL NO-BRAINER: TCU/Colorado OVER 55

I will gladly take my chances with the OVER 55 in Friday's Power 5 non-conference matchup between TCU and Colorado. I don't think these two teams will have any problem getting to 60 points and it could even go into the 70s. 

A big reason I'm so high on the OVER is I think people are really sleeping on this TCU offense. The Horned Frogs brought in Sonny Dykes to replace Gary Patterson and Dykes knows how to put up points. In his last 3 years at SMU, the Mustangs put up monster numbers. Even better is Dykes was able to bring along his OC Garrett Riley. 

These two will take over an offense that returns 10 starters from a unit that averaged a misleading 28.7 ppg. I say misleading, because they averaged a healthy 436 ypg (17 more ypg than they had in 2017 when they averaged 33.6 ppg. 

They got options at quarterback with the return of starter Max Duggan and backup Chandler Morris, who transferred in from Oklahoma last year (had 461 passing yards vs Oklahoma and could overtake Duggan). 

They get back a stud RB in Kenre Miller, return their top 4 pass catchers and on paper have one of the best O-lines in the country. I think they easily average a TD more a game and really should feast on what figures to be a sub-par Colorado defense. 

They key here is I think the Buffaloes will also be able to generate some offense. Colorado isn't elite offensively, but should be greatly improved over the unit that averaged just 18.8 ppg and 257 ypg last year. TCU's defense will be improved, but they are in the first year of a new system and gave up 34.9 ppg and 462 ypg in 2021. Give me the OVER 55! 

10* MLB Late Night VEGAS INSIDER: Padres/Giants UNDER 7.5

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 7.5 in Monday's series opener between the Padres and Giants. It's going to be a pretty cool night at Oracle Park with temps in the high 50's. That should work to the advantage of the pitchers. 

San Francisco will have Carlos Rodon on the mound. He's 12-6 with a 2.81 ERA and 1.032 WHIP in 25 starts. He's 6-1 with a 1.86 ERA in 11 home starts and has a 1.89 ERA and 0.789 WHIP in his last 3 outings. San Diego will counter with Mike Clevinger, who has a very respectable 3.45 ERA and 1.111 WHIP in 15 starts this season. 

The other big thing is both offenses have been struggling to produce of late. The Giants have scored 3 or fewer runs in 5 straight and 9 of their last 11. The Padres just put up a bunch of runs in a 3-game series at KC, but prior to that had scored 9 runs total in their previous 6 games. Give me the UNDER 7.5! 

10* MLB - Over/Under VEGAS INSIDER: Guardians/Mariners UNDER 7.5

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 7.5 in Thursday's matchup between the Guardians and Mariners. Cleveland will have Triston McKenzie on the mound. He's red-hot coming into this start with a 1.66 ERA and 0.738 WHIP over his last 3 starts. McKenzie also owns a 1.77 ERA and 0.813 WHIP in 11 day starts this season. 

Seattle will counter with Marco Gonzalez, who has a solid 3.62 ERA and 1.236 WHIP in 12 home starts. Mariners have seen the UNDER cash in 28 of their last 41 home day games. UNDER is also 16-6 in Seattle's last 22 at home vs an AL starting pitcher with an ERA of 3.70 or better and 11-2 in their last 13 at home vs a starter who averages 5 or more K's per start. Play the UNDER 7.5! 

10* MLB Over/Under MAX UNIT Top Play: Blue Jays/Red Sox OVER 9.5

I'll take my chances with the OVER 9.5 in Wednesday's AL East showdown between the Blue Jays and Red Sox. These two teams combined for 12 runs in the opener on Tuesday. There's a good chance we see even more offense today. 

Neither starting pitcher has been any good. Jose Berrios is 9-5, but owns a 5.39 ERA and 1.368 WHIP in 24 starts. He's also got a 6.82 ERA and 1.533 WHIP in 12 road starts. OVER is 10-2 in those 12 starts. 

Brayan Bello has a 10.50 ERA and an atrocious 2.500 WHIP in 3 starts. He's yet to make it past the 4th inning and has given up at least 4 runs in all 3 starts. Give me the OVER 9.5! 

10* MLB Over/Under VEGAS INSIDER: Cardinals/Diamondbacks UNDER 7.5

I'll gladly take my chances with the UNDER 7.5 in Sunday's series finale between the Cardinals and Diamondbacks. These two saw 20+ runs in St Louis' blowout win on Saturday, but prior to that the UNDER had cashed in 8 straight games for Arizona. 

A lot of that is the Diamondbacks aren't as potent offensively after the trade deadline. I look for them to have a hard time pushing across runs against the Cardinals Jose Quintana. He's really been good for St Louis in his 3 starts since coming over from the Pirates. He's got a 2.65 ERA and 1.059 WHIP in those 3 starts and one of those was at Coors Field. 

On the flip side of this, Arizona has not just one of their best starts going, but a top tier starter in the NL on the mound in Merrill Kelly. He's 10-5 with a 2.81 ERA and 1.122 WHIP in 24 starts. I think he's more than up to the challenge of keeping this Cardinals offense in check. Give me the UNDER 7.5! 

MLB Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Under 7.5) 

I'll take my chances with the Rockies and Cardinals finishing UNDER the total of 7.5. Colorado will have German Marquez on the mound. He's pitched great in his last 2 starts, giving up just 2 ER in 6 innings both starts. Marquez also has a great history against the Cardinals. He's got a 2.59 ERA and 1.200 WHIP in 7 career starts vs St Louis. 

The Cardinals will counter with Jordan Montgomery, who has pitched great since coming over from the Yankees at the trade deadline. Montgomery has not allowed a run in his first 2 starts with St Louis. Definitely a plus matchup here against a Rockies team that struggles to score away from Coors Field. Give me the UNDER 7.5! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

MLB Over/Under VEGAS INSIDER Top Play (Over 9.5)

I'll take my chances with the OVER 9.5 in Thursday's makeup game between AL East rivals Baltimore and Boston. The Orioles just keep winning baseball games. They are 7-1 over their last 8 games. Boston on the other hand can't catch a break Red Sox have lost 6 of their last 7. 

Baltimore's offense is swinging it well and should be able to take advantage of Red Sox starter Josh Winckowski.

Even though Boston isn't, they are swinging a decent bat of late. Red Sox have racked up 51 hits in their last 5 games. Baltimore's Dean Kremer was great in his last start, but that was against a bad Pirates offense. He'd allowed 6 runs in 4 1/3 innings his previous time out. He's also given up 10 runs on 12 hits in 2 starts (7 2/3 innings) against Boston. Give me the OVER 9.5! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

MLB Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER Top Play (UNDER 7.5) 

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 7.5 in Sunday's series finale between the Reds and Brewers. Cincinnati figures to have a hard time getting their offense going against Milwaukee ace Corbin Burnes, who is one of the elite starters in baseball. Burnes comes in with a 2.49 ERA and 0.946 WHIP in 21 starts. He's got a 2.51 ERA and 1.117 WHIP in 2 career starts against the Reds. 

Cincinnati will counter with Graham Ashcraft. He's 5-2 with a mediocre 4.12 ERA and 1.332 WHIP in 13 starts. However, he's coming in off one of his best starts of the season and is facing a Brewers offense that has hit of a bit of a funk offensively in this series. Give me the UNDER 7.5! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

MLB Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 8) 

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 8 in Monday's series opener between the Dodgers and Giants. LA will have Andrew Heaney on the mound and San Francisco will have Logan Webb. Heaney has made 4 starts in 2022 and has given up just 1 ER on 10 hits in 19 1/3 innings. Webb is 7-2 with a 2.43 ERA and 1.170 WHIP in 11 home starts. Webb also has an impressive 2.50 ERA and 0.993 WHIP in 9 career starts vs the Dodgers. Give me the UNDER 8! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

MLB Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play on UNDER 7.5

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 7.5 in Friday's matchup between the Cubs and Giants. San Francisco won the opener 4-2 on Thursday. It was a real tough day at the plate for Chicago, who managed just 3 hits on the game. 

I think we see those struggles carry over to this game. San Francisco will have Alex Cobb on the mound. He's posted a respectable 3.32 ERA over his last 3 starts. 

I also don't see the Giants offense doing a whole lot. San Francisco has been in quite the funk offensively of late. In their last 7 games they are scoring just 2.4 runs/game and hitting 0.189 as a team. Cubs starter, Marcus Stroman, has a 2.31 ERA in 7 road starts and a 1.26 ERA and 0.907 WHIP over his last 3 outings. Give me the UNDER 7.5! 

MLB Over/Under PLAY OF THE WEEK (UNDER 8.5) 

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 8.5 in Tuesday's MLB action between the Giants and Diamondbacks. I just don't see these two teams getting to 9 runs with this starting pitching matchup. 

San Francisco will send out ace Carlos Rodon, who has a 2.95 ERA and 1.136 WHIP in 19 starts. Rodon did struggle in his last start at the Dodgers, giving up 5 ER in 5 innings. However, that's only the third start this season where he's allowed more than 3 runs. Last time he gave up more than 3 runs, he came back the next start and pitched a complete game. 

Tyler Gilbert will get the ball for Arizona. Gilbert has a 5.59 ERA and 1.280 WHIP in 6 starts. Thing is, he had two really bad outings on the road, where he gave up 12 ER. He's allowed just 5 ER in his 4 other outings and just 1 ER in two home starts. Give me the UNDER 8.5! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

MLB Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER Top Play (Under 8.5) 

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 8.5 in Saturday's AL Central matchup between the Tigers and Twins. We got Joe Ryan on the mound for Minnesota and Michael Pineda going for Detroit. Ryan has been excellent in 2022. He's 6-3 with a 2.99 ERA and 1.062 WHIP in 14 starts. He allowed just 1 hit with 9 K's in 7 scoreless innings in his only start vs the Tigers this season. 

Pineda is just 2-5 with a 5.22 ERA and 1.362 WHIP in 9 starts. The key here is the damage has mainly come on the road for Pineda. He's got a 2.96 ERA and 1.134 WHIP in 6 home starts. UNDER is 5-1 in those 6 home starts. Give me the UNDER 8.5! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

MLB Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER Top Play (UNDER 8)

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 8 in Friday's series opener between the Red Sox and Yankees. Really like the starting pitching matchup we have going in this one. Boston will send out Nathan Eovaldi, while the Yankees turn to Jordan Montgomery. 

Eovaldi has been sensational of late. He's got a 0.90 ERA and 0.950 WHIP in his last 3 starts and is coming off back to back starts on the road where he didn't give up a run. Montgomery has a 3.19 ERA and 0.833 WHIP in 8 home starts. As good as these two offenses are, I don't see them getting to 9 runs tonight. Give me the UNDER 8! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

MLB Over/Under TOTAL OF THE WEEK (Under 8)

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 8 in Thursday's AL West matchup between the Angels and Astros. I really have a hard time seeing these two teams get to 9 runs. I definitely doing much offensively. Houston has Framber Valdez on the mound. He's got a 2.64 ERA and 1.101 WHIP in 17 starts. He's also got a 1.75 ERA and 0.900 WHIP in 10 road starts. 

The key here is we can't have Angels' starter Reid Detmers not blow up. I like his chances of pitching well. Detmers has a very respectable 3.52 ERA and outstanding 0.809 WHIP in 7 home starts. Detmers also has a 2.70 ERA over 2 career starts (1 this year and 1 last year) against the Astros. Give me the UNDER 8! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

MLB Over/Under PLAY OF THE WEEK (Under 8.5) 

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 8.5 in Saturday's AL Central matchup between the Tigers and White Sox. Chicago will have veteran Johnny Cueto on the mound. Cueto has been better than expected for the White Sox. He's got a strong 3.11 ERA and 1.200 WHIP over 9 starts. He's been especially good in day games (1.42 ERA in 3 starts). He also has a 1.50 ERA in division games. 

Detroit will counter with Garrett Hill. He was spectacular in his first big league start. Hill allowed just 1 run on 2 hits in 6 innings against Cleveland. The only run he gave up came on a solo home run. It's unlikely he's that good in start number two, but I don't see him blowing up. Give me the UNDER 8.5! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

MLB Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (OVER 9.5) 

I'll take my chances with the OVER 9.5 in Thursday's NL West clash between the Rockies and Diamondbacks. We should see plenty of offense in this one, as we got a couple of struggling starters taking the mound. 

Colorado will turn to Austin Gomber, who is 4-7 with a 6.42 ERA and 1.442 WHIP in 13 starts. Gomber has made 3 starts vs Arizona in his career, all since 2021, and all 3 have seen a combined score of at least 13 runs. 

Dallas Keuchel will go for the Diamondbacks. He's 2-6 with a 8.49 ERA and 2.105 WHIP in 10 starts and it isn't getting any better. He's got a 12.71 ERA and 2.383 WHIP over his last 3 starts. He's only faced Colorado once in the last 5 years. It didn't go well, giving up 7 runs in 5 innings of a 7-11 loss. Give me the OVER 9.5! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

MLB Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER Top Play (OVER 8.5) 

I'll take my chances with the OVER 8.5 in Wednesday's interleague matchup between the Yankees and Pirates. These two teams should have no problem getting to at least 9 runs. New York could easily eclipse this number on their own, but they should get some help from Pittsburgh. 

Pirates have scored 5 or more runs in 4 of their last 6 games. Yankees' Luis Severino has a 4.32 ERA in 6 road starts and a 5.29 ERA over his last 3 outings. New York's loaded lineup will be facing Pittsburgh's Mitch Keller. In 13 starts this season, Keller has a disappointing 5.34 ERA and 1.500 WHIP. Play the OVER 8.5! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

Friday's MLB Free Pick: Rays/Blue Jays UNDER 9 

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 9 in Friday's early AL East showdown between the Rays and Blue Jays. This feels like it's at least a full run too high. Tampa Bay has a resurgent Corey Kluber on the mound. Kluber has a 3.45 ERA and 1.082 WHIP in 14 starts. He's got a 2.08 ERA and 0.866 WHIP in his last 3 outings, 2.14 ERA in 8 day starts and a 2.64 ERA in 6 division starts. 

Toronto will turn to an inconsistent Jose Berrios, who is 5-4 with a 5.86 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in 15 starts. That inconsistency has really been a matter of pitching at home or on the road. Berrios is 3-0 with a 3.18 ERA and 1.059 WHIP in 6 home starts. Give me the UNDER 9! 

Confidence Rating: 5 (Scale of 1-10)

MLB Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 8.5) 

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 8.5 in Wednesday's matchup between the Red Sox and Blue Jays. We took a bad beat on the UNDER 10 in yesterday's game between these two, as Toronto scored 2 in the bottom of the 9th to win 6-5. 

That's not going to deter me from backing the UNDER again, as we got an even better starting pitching matchup this time around. Boston will send out a very underrated Nick Pivetta, who has a 3.25 ERA and 1.105 WHIP in 15 starts. Pivetta also comes in hot with a 1.64 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in his last 3 starts. 

Blue Jays will counter with Alek Manoah, who is 9-2 with a 2.05 ERA and 0.958 WHIP in 14 starts. Manoah is 5-1 with a 2.15 ERA in 7 home starts and has a 1.50 ERA and 0.899 WHIP in 3 career starts vs the Red Sox. Give me the UNDER 8.5! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

AL East Over/Under TOTAL OF THE WEEK (Under 10)

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 10 in Tuesday's AL East showdown between the Red Sox and Blue Jays. Boston will have Michael Wacha on the mound. Wacha is 6-1 with a 2.34 ERA and 1.041 WHIP in 12 starts. Ross Stripling will start for Toronto. Stripling is 3-2 with a 2.81 ERA and 0.936 WHIP in 9 starts. Stripling also has a 1.72 ERA and 0.893 WHIP over his last 3 outings. 

These two starters faced off in an earlier matchup back in April. Both pitched extremely well. Wacha held the Blue Jays to just 1 run on 4 hits in 6 innings. Stripling allowed 1 run on 5 hits in 5 innings. Give me the UNDER 10! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

MLB Vegas Insider MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 8)

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 8 in Saturday's matchup between the Mariners and Angels. Really good starting pitching matchup in this one, as Seattle sends out Logan Gilbert and LA counters with Patrick Sandoval. 

Gilbert is one of the better starters that you don't hear a lot about. Guy is 7-3 with a 2.39 ERA and 1.036 WHIP in 14 starts. Same goes for Sandoval, who has a 2.70 ERA and 1.317 WHIP in 11 starts. These two also have a strong track record against their division rival. Gilbert has a 3.74 ERA and 1.108 WHIP in 4 starts vs the Angeles and Sandoval has a 3.30 ERA and 1.067 WHIP in 5 starts vs the Mariners. Give me the UNDER 8! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

National League TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Under 9)

I'll gladly take my chances with the UNDER 9 in Wednesday's matchup between the Braves and Giants. These two had an offensive explosion on Tuesday, as Atlanta squeaked out a 12-10 win. I believe it's created some value with today's total, as we got a pretty good starting pitching matchup. 

The Giants will have Carlos Rodon on the mound. Rodon had that great start to 2022, but then had a stretch of some not so great outings. He seems to have righted the ship. Rodon has a 1.00 ERA over his last 3 starts and has not allowed a run in his last 2 outings. 

Charlie Morton will get the ball for Atlanta. Morton's numbers aren't great, as he owns a 5.08 ERA and 1.352 WHIP in 13 starts. However, he too has shown some life of late. Morton just threw 7 scoreless innings in his last start and has racked up an impressive 29 K's in 18 innings over his last 3 outings. Give me the UNDER 9! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

MLB Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER Top Play (Over 9)

I'll take my chances with the OVER 9 in Tuesday's AL Central matchup between the Twins and Guardians. These two teams should have no problem combining for at least 10 runs. Cleveland will send out Aaron Civale, who has an ugly 7.84 ERA in 7 starts and a 12.00 ERA and 2.133 WHIP in 4 road outings (OVER is 4-0). 

The Twins will turn to Joe Ryan. While Ryan comes in with an impressive 2.81 ERA and 1.021 WHIP in 9 starts, he struggled in his first start back after missing close to 3 weeks. Ryan gave up 4 runs on 5 hits (2 HR) in just 4 2/3 innings at Seattle. 

The other big factor in the OVER is Mother Nature. It's expected to be in the mid 80's with wind blowing out to center at close to 20 mph. Give me the OVER 9! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

American League TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Under 8) 

I love the UNDER 8 in Saturday's matchup between the White Sox and Rangers. We got Martin Perez on the mound for Texas. He's one of the more underrated starters in the league. Perez has a 1.56 ERA and 0.981 WHIP in 11 starts. He's been nearly unhittable on the road, posting a 0.31 ERA and 0.897 WHIP in 4 road outings. 

Chicago will turn to Lucas Giolito. He's not been quite as good as what people expected to this point. He's got a 3.54 ERA and 1.457 WHIP in 9 starts. Key here is he is a different guy at home. Giolito has 2.37 ERA and 1.263 WHIP over 3 home starts. He's also got a 2.38 ERA over 2 career starts vs the Rangers. Give me the UNDER 8! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

National League Total PLAY OF THE WEEK (UNDER 8) 

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 8 in Tuesday's series opener between the Mets and Padres. Really good starting pitching matchup in this one, as San Diego sends out Yu Darvish and New York turns to Taijuan Walker. 

Darvish has had his ups and downs in 2022, which is why he's got a 4.03 ERA in 10 starts. However, most of the damage has come on the road. Darvish is 2-1 with a 1.71 ERA and 0.683 WHIP in 4 home starts. All 4 starts have finished UNDER the total. 

Walker has been rock solid regardless of where he starts. He's got a 2.88 ERA in 8 starts overall and a 2.80 ERA in 5 road starts. He's also got a 2.04 ERA over his last 3 starts, as he's allowed just 4 ER in his last 17 2/3 innings. Give me the UNDER 8! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

MLB Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Under 7.5) 

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 7.5 in Saturday's matchup between the Padres and Brewers. Two underrated starters take the mound in this one.

Mackenzie Gore of the Padres has been sensational in his first 7 big league starts (all this year). He's 3-1 with a 1.85 ERA and 1.077 WHIP with 43 Ks in 39 innings of work. 

Milwaukee's Aaron Ashby has a 2.48 ERA over 5 starts this season and he's done that with 4 of his 5 starts coming on the road. He's also really had just one bad outing at Atlanta a few starts back. He gave up 6 in 4 innings. He's allowed a mere 2 ER in his 4 other starts combined. Give me the UNDER 7.5! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

MLB Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 7.5) 

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 7.5 in Friday's series opener between the Diamondbacks and Pirates. I like the pitching matchup we have in this one. Arizona's Merrill Kelly has an ugly 10.50 ERA and 2.167 WHIP in his last 3 starts, but almost all the damage came in one start on the road against the Dodgers, where he gave up 8 runs in 2 innings.

He's pitched better in his last two starts and now faces a very mediocre Pirates offense that figures to be dealing with a bit of jet lag and a possible letdown after playing 6 straight in California and off a 3-game sweep of the Dodgers in LA. 

Pittsburgh will counter with the red-hot J.T. Brubaker, who has a 2.08 ERA over his last 3 starts, giving up a mere 4 ER over his last 17 1/3 innings of work. Brubaker's only career start vs Arizona came last August and he held the Dbacks scoreless over 5 innings. Give me the UNDER 7.5! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

MLB Over/Under MAX UNIT Top Play (Under 8.5) 

I will gladly take my chances with the UNDER 8.5 in Monday's matchup between the Diamondbacks and Braves. This to me is a very good starting pitching matchup. 

Arizona will have their best starter on the mound in Zac Gallen. He's got a strong 2.22 ERA and a sensational 0.828 WHIP over 8 starts. His lone start against Atlanta came last season and he held the Braves to just 1 hit over 7 scoreless innings. 

The big value with the total comes from Atlanta sending out Spencer Strider for his first big league start. Those that don't know, Strider is one of the Braves top young arms. He's been outstanding out of the pen this year, posting a 2.22 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. He's also racked up a staggering 37 K's in 24 1/3 innings. 

He's probably not going to go deep into this game, but that's not a big concern. Braves' relievers this year have posted a combined 3.41 ERA and 1.205 WHIP. For whatever reason those guys out of the pen have been at their best on the road with a 1.95 ERA and 1.098 WHIP. Give me the UNDER 8.5! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

MLB Over/Under PLAY OF THE WEEK (Under 8.5) 

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 8.5 in Saturday's cross-town matchup between the Cubs and White Sox. Love the pitching matchup in this one. Cubs will give the ball to Keegan Thompson, while the White Sox turn to veteran Johnny Cueto. 

Thompson has made 2 starts and pitched well, giving up just 2 ER in 9 innings of work. Cueto on the other hand hasn't allowed a run in his first 2 starts of 2022. He's thrown 6 scoreless innings in both starts, including his last start at New York against a loaded Yankees lineup. Look for both teams to struggle to score in this one. Give me the UNDER 8.5! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

Eastern Conf Finals (Game 5) MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 204) 

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 204 in Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Finals between the Celtics and Heat. I always like to look to the UNDER in a series when it's tied 2-2 going into a Game 5. It's not quite the same as a Game 7, but it has that feel to it, where both teams are pulling out all the stops to go up 3-2 in what is now a best of 3 series. 

We finally saw a defensive game in Game 4, after each of the first 3 games went OVER the total. The two combined for just 184 points in Game 4. I see no reason not to expect more of the same. Both teams are dealing with big injuries. Boston is likely without Smart and Heat could be playing without both Lowry and Herro. Either way, these two teams know how they want to defend the opposition. Give me the UNDER 204! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

Eastern Conf Finals (Game 3) MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 207.5) 

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 207.5 in Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals. It's been a a lot higher scoring series so far. Both Game 1 and Game 2 went OVER the total. They went for 225 with a total of 203.5 in Game 1 and for 229 with a total of 206 in Game 2. 

Why go UNDER in Game 3? This to me is when the series really start to flip to the defenses having the edge. Both teams are now very familiar with what both teams want to do and the adjustments they make when they try to take something away. 

Not only that, but I think we see the defense turned up a notch anytime a series is tied. Both teams are going to be extremely motivated to take a 2-1 series lead. We finally get the defensive showdown we thought we would see from the start. Give me the UNDER 207.5! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

Eastern Conference Finals (Game 2) MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 208)

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 208 in Game 2 of the Eastern Conference Finals. A lot of people were on the UNDER in Game 1 and got burned as that went well past the total of 203.5 with the game finishing at 225. 

We cashed the Heat -1.5 in that one, but had I been forced to play the total I would have leaned to the OVER. I just didn't think Boston would be at their best defensively coming off back-to-back elimination wins with just one day off from their Game 7 win against the Bucks. Not only that, but they were without two of their better defenders in Marcus Smart and Al Horford. 

Now it's time to look to the UNDER with the books jumping this total up to 208. Boston should be much better defensively in Game 2. While Horford is still out, Smart has been upgraded to probable. Having the DPOY on the floor is a big deal. It's also going to help having seen what Miami wants to do offensively. Plus, it's unlikely the Heat play as well offensively (shot 49% from the field and got 41 points from Jimmy Butler). Give me the UNDER 208! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

NBA Playoffs Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Under 214.5) 

I will take my chances with the UNDER 214.5 in Game 5 between the Celtics and Bucks. I always lean UNDER in Game 5 when a series is tied 2-2, as it just has that Game 7 feel to it with both teams desperately wanting to get a win to take control of the series. We saw the UNDER cash in this spot in both games last night. 

The two teams did go OVER the total in Game 4, but note that was the first time this entire postseason that a game involving the Bucks finished OVER the total. UNDER is 8-1. I just think that given what's at stake, it's going to be hard for both teams to get to 100 points and I wouldn't be shocked if neither team did. Give me the UNDER 214.5! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

NBA Playoffs Smart Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Under 213)

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 213 in Game 3 between the Bucks and Celtics. The UNDER has cashed in each of the first two games of this series and is now a perfect 7-0 in Milwaukee's 7 playoff games. 

These are two of the best defensive teams in the league. With the series tied at 1-1, you got to think both of these teams are going to be locked in on the defensive side of the ball. Keep in mind we saw both teams shoot close to 47% in Game 2 and yet they still only combined for 195 points. I've said it in each of the first two games. It's going to be a struggle for both teams to hit that 100 point mark. Give me the UNDER 213! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

NBA Playoffs Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 209)

I will gladly take my chances with the UNDER at 209 in Game 1 between the 76ers and Heat. Two big names for both sides will be out of this one. Joel Embiid is out until at least Game 3 and Kyle Lowry will miss the game for Miami. 

Embiid is an absolute massive blow to the 76ers, especially on the offensive side of the ball. I just don't see the likes of Harden/Maxey/Harris having a lot of success against this Miami defense. There's going to be no easy buckets for Philly. 

Embiid is also a big part of the 76ers' defense, but they can still be good on that side without him. It also helps them that the Lowry, Miami's floor general, won't be on the floor. I wouldn't be surprised at all if both teams failed to reach 100 points. Give me the UNDER 209! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

NBA Playoffs Round 2 VEGAS INSIDER (Under 218) 

I absolutely love the UNDER at 218 in Game 1 of the Celtics/Bucks series. I think these are two of the best defensive teams in the league. The transformation that Boston has had defensively from the start of the year to now is pretty remarkable.

That defense just made KD look like an average player in their sweep of the Nets in the first round. Now they face a Bucks team down one of their top scorers in Middleton.

Milwaukee might not be on the Celtics level defensively, but they aren't far behind. The Bucks defense dominated a pretty good Bulls offense in the first round. It will be much harder against Boston, but they are up to the task. Getting to 100 points will be a struggle for both sides. Give me the UNDER 218! 

Confidence Rating: 9 (Scale of 1-10)

50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 236) 

We saw both play-in games last night go UNDER the total. The Clippers/Wolves only combined for 213 with a total of 231. The Nets/Cavs did come close with 223 and a total of 227, but that was with a 65-point 4th quarter. 

That's just a prime example of how much better the defense gets in the postseason. That was with neither of those teams being eliminated with a loss. Tonight it's win or go home for these 9/10 matchups. 

As good as these two offenses are and how both can struggle defensively at times, the total shouldn't be in the high 230s! Give me the UNDER 236! 

50* (MLB) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 8) 

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 8 in Friday's AL matchup between the Twins and Mariners. You got the reigning AL Cy Young winner going for Toronto in Robbie Ray and one of my favorite breakout starters, Joe Ryan, on the mound for the Twins. 

On top of that, these are not going to be scoring conditions with winds at 15 mph and the Temp in the 40s. Runs are going to be hard to come by for both sides. Give me the UNDER 8! 

50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (OVER 212.5) 

I'll take my chances with the OVER 212.5 in Wednesday's non-conference matchup between the Mavs and Cavs. I think it's going to be tough for Cleveland to stop the Mavs with both Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen. The defense has not been good since Allen went out and now they are really behind the 8-ball on that side of the ball with Mobley out. 

As for the Mavs, I don't think they are going to have enough in the tank to be anywhere close to their best on the defensive side of the ball. Dallas hosted the Jazz on Sunday and then hosted the Lakers last night. Mavs are also sitting good in the standings, at 4th place in the West, 2 games in front of the Jazz and Nuggets. Easy spot for them to just go through the motions defensively. Give me the OVER 212.5! 

50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 232) 

I love the UNDER 232 in Tuesday's Eastern Conference showdown between the Bucks and 76ers. This feels like a game where both of these teams are going to bring it. Both of these teams think they are the team to beat in the East and both are just 1-game back of the Heat for the No. 1 seed. 

You also got both of these teams not just coming off a loss, but coming off a game where they didn't play well. Milwaukee got steamrolled by 25 at Memphis on Saturday and the 76ers lost by 10 at Phoenix. 

UNDER is 5-0 in Philly's last 5 as a home favorite and 8-1 in their last 9 at home with a total of 22 or more. UNDER is also 7-3 in the Bucks last 10 off 2 days of rest, 8-3 in their last 11 as a dog and 4-0 in their last 4 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Give me the UNDER 232! 

50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 215.5) 

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 215.5 in Monday's big Eastern Conference showdown between the Heat and 76ers. It not going to be playoff intensity, but I expect both teams to really be up for this game. This is Philly's last crack at catching the Heat for the No. 1 seed, as they are 3.5-back with just 11 games left for both teams.

Miami still has to hold of the Bucks, but would pretty much secure the No. 2 with a win. I also think there's also a little more incentive for the Heat with this being their first crack at Philly since they added James Harden. 

I just see this being a defensive game. Both these teams rank in the bottom 10 in pace and are very strong defensively. They have played 3 times this season and the most they have combined for is 207 with 2 games failing to reach 200. Give me the UNDER 215.5! 

50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (OVER 214.5) 

I really like the OVER 214.5 in Thursday's game between Los Angeles and Dallas. The Clippers have shown no interest in getting stops of late. LA gave up 137 at home to the Bucks on Sunday and then turned around and gave up 135 at Memphis on Tuesday. They have allowed 5 of their last 6 opponents to shoot 47% or better from the field, with 3 of the last 4 eclipsing 51%. No surprise the OVER 7-1-1 in their last 4 games. 

I don't see that defense flipping a switch against a good Mavs team, especially with how well Luka Doncic is playing right now. Doncic is averaging 31.0 ppg, 11.8 apg and 9.0 rpg in 4 games this month. 

Dallas does have a good defense, but LA's not been held under 100 points since scoring 94 against the Spurs way back on Jan. 15. I think as long as the Clippers can get to the century mark, this think will easily go over the number. Give me the OVER 214.5! 

50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 224.5) 

This is an easy play on the UNDER at 224.5 in Wednesday's game between the Nuggets and Jazz. Utah is dealing with some serious injury problems right now. Already without arguably their two best players in Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert, the Jazz just lost their top reserve, Joe Ingles, to a season-ending injury. They could also be without Hassan Whiteside, who is questionable with a back injury. 

As for the Nuggets, they don't figure to be looking to push the pace in this one. Denver has to be running on fumes, as they will be playing on no rest after a game last night in Minnesota. It's also their 6th straight on the road and 3rd in the last 4 nights. Give me the UNDER 224.5! 

50* (NBA) - TNT Total PLAY OF THE MONTH (Over 215) 

I'll take my chances with the OVER 215 between the Pacers and Warriors in the night cap of Thursday's TNT double-header. I just the market is low right now on this Golden State offense. The Warriors haven't exactly been lighting it up, as they have eclipsed 108 points just once in their 8 games and failed to even reach 100 in 5 of those games. 

It's not so much execution as it is they just haven't shot well. Golden State has shot worse than 43% from the field in 7 of their last 8. Some of that likely has to do with them playing 6 of their last 8 on the road. 

They only finished with 102 in their last game at home against Detroit, but they had 66 in the 1st half (scored 17 in the 3rd and 19 in the 4th). A lot of that is the game was over at the at half (GS led 66-38). 

I think the offense could be in store for a big game here against a injury plagued and tired Pacers team that will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days on no rest after a thrilling 111-104 comeback win against the Lakers. 

Note that Malcolm Brogdon has been on a minute restriction coming back from an achilles injury, so it's no guarantee he plays on the second of a back-to-back. Big man Domantas Sabonis injured his ankle. He finished the game, but head coach Rick Carlisle said it was "probably going to be significant." I just don't see a lot of defense being played for a Pacers team that hasn't been great on that side of the ball anyway. Give me the OVER 215

50* (CBB) Big Ten TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Over 151.5) 

I love the OVER 151.5 in Sunday's Big 10 showdown between Minnesota and Iowa. This Hawkeyes team is all offense and no defense. Iowa ranks No. 3 in the country in offensive efficiency and 160th in defensive efficiency. Their only hope of winning games against quality teams is to outscore them. 

It's why they are 2-3 in Big Ten play, despite averaging 78.8 ppg. They give up 80.0 ppg. So while the Gophers are only scoring 64.8 ppg in Big Ten play, it would take a real bad shooting day for them to not get into the 70s at home against this Iowa defense. 

The other big thing is, is this Minnesota defense doesn't figure to be able to slow down Iowa's offense. The Gophers are 12th out of 14 teams in the Big Ten in defensive efficiency. I think this total should be closer to 160 than 150. Give me the OVER 151.5! 

50* (CFB) - Non-Playoffs BOWL TOTAL OF THE MONTH (OVER 54.5) 

I think the books have completely missed the mark with this total. I get that Air Force only gave up 19.1 ppg and 289 ypg on the season, but a lot of that has to do with the schedule. The Falcons didn't play a single Power 5 opponent in non-conference play. 

The two best offenses they faced in MWC play were arguably Utah State and Nevada. They lost 45-49 to the Aggies and won 41-39 over the Wolfpack. 

Louisville is without a couple wideouts, but they got a top tier talent at quarterback in Malik Jackson and he's more than enough weapons to work with. 

Not only do I think the Cardinals will score a bunch, but I don't think the Louisville defense will be able to slow down Air Force's triple-option. They weren't a good run defense and have not seen an offense like this in a long time. Give me the OVER 54.5! 

50* (CFB) - Mizzu/Army MAX UNIT Top Play (Over 53) 

I think we have had a bit of perfect storm that has created a golden opportunity to play the OVER. Army is coming off that defensive battle against Navy and I just think the perception here is that with a team like the Black Knights that want to run, run and run some more, there's not going to be as much scoring. 

That can be the case if they are playing a team that can stop the run, but that's not the case here. Missouri has one of the worst run defenses in the country. They finished the year giving up 229 yards/game and 5.5 yards/carry vs the run. We saw Army rush for 416 yards and score 56 points against Wake Forest, so it's not like they can't score a bunch with that offense. 

The other big thing here is Missouri's top running back Tyler Badie (led SEC in rushing) won't play and they are going to give freshman Brady Cook his first start. Not having Badie is a big deal, but I do think the Tigers got some decent backs who can step in and have success, as the Mizzu o-line should have an edge against the Army defensive front. 

As for Cook, he's played sparingly and impressed. He played in their blowout loss against Georgia and completed 14 of 19 attempts. You got to think they are going to let him sling it in this game and he's going to have to with how much the defense figures to struggle. Give me the OVER 53! 

50* (NFL) - Chiefs/Chargers MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 51.5) 

I love the UNDER on Thursday Night Football this week. Even after all the struggles we have seen from Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense this year, the public still sees this team as a this offensive juggernaut. Largely because of what we saw from this offense the last two years. 

I know they just put up 48 points in a blowout win over the Raiders this past Sunday, but a lot of that was A) Las Vegas turned the ball over 5 times, B) the Raiders refusal to play the cover-2 shell that has given Mahomes so much trouble. KC only had 372 total yards. Mahomes completed 20 of 24 but for just 258. 

This Chiefs offense is so much more methodical. There's not near as many explosive plays and quick scoring drives. At least, against every other team not named the Raiders. The Chargers aren't stupid. They will play the cover-2 shell and make Mahomes dink and dunk and force Andy to run it more than he wants. 

The other big thing with KC and the UNDER is the play of their defense. You can say what you want about who the schedule has dealt them of late, but you can't be a bad defense and go 3 straight games in today's NFL and give up fewer than 10 points. It's night and day from what this defense looked like to start the year. 

Chris Jones will be out, which is a huge part of that defense. However, I think it's even bigger that the Chargers are down starting tackle and by far their best linemen in Rashawn Slater. Frank Clark has been wreaking havoc off the edge and Melvin Ingram is a force on the other side. I think that pressure combined with one of the most underrated secondaries in the NFL will make it really hard on Herbert and that Chargers offense to do a whole lot. Give me the UNDER 51.5! 

50* (NBA) - Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Over 225) 

I love the OVER 225 in tonight's NBA matchup between the Kings and Wizards. These are two teams that are really struggling to get stops right now and I don't see that changing tonight. 

Washington has allowed 113 or more in each of their last 4 games and teams are shooting 48.6% from the field against them over their last 5. 

It's not any better for Sacramento, who has allowed 117 or more in 4 straight and 115 or more in 9 of their last 10. They have allowed their opponent to shoot 50% or better in 3 of their last 4 and 47 or better in 9 of their last 10. Give me the OVER 225! 

50* (CFB) - PAC-12 Oregon/Utah TOTAL OF THE YEAR (Under 58.5)

I love the UNDER 58.5 in Friday's Pac-12 Championship Game between Utah and Oregon. These two teams just played a couple weeks ago in Utah. The Utes embarrassed the Ducks 38-7, ending all hope for Oregon to make the College Football Playoff. 

As good as Utah looked in that win, you can't underestimate how much of an advantage they had playing that game at home. I think we are going to see a much better effort defensively from Oregon in the rematch, especially on the defensive side of the ball. 

I also think that these are two teams that want to establish the run. Utah ran it 50 times in the win over the Ducks a couple weeks ago and Oregon's a team that averages close to 40 rush attempts per game on the season. 

I just think it's going to be a defensive battle with both teams struggling to not only sustain drives, but finish them off in the red zone with touchdowns. Give me the UNDER 58.5! 

50* (NFL) Cowboys/Saints MAX UNIT Top Play (OVER 47.5) 

I'm not going to lie, I was hoping for a little better injury news for the Saints, especially on the offensive line at the two tackle positions. Either way, I still think this game will go over the total. 

The biggest thing you got to remember with the Saints offense is that they are going up against an overrated Cowboys defense. Yes, Dallas forces a lot of turnovers, but they also rank in the bottom half of the league against both the run and the pass. I also think having Taysom Hill gives that offense some life and his mobility will be crucial with that Cowboys pass rush up against a depleted Saints o-line. 

I also think there's a chance we don't need New Orleans to do a lot. I really think this Cowboys offense could put up 40+. I don't think this Saints defense is anywhere close to as good as what they get credit for. Their secondary is awful and they are up against one of, if not the, best passing attacks in the league. I also think this Cowboys offense is dying to make a statement after the poor showings and injuries they have had to encounter the last few weeks. Give me the OVER 47.5! 

50* (NFL) Over/Under TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Under 47.5) 

I love the UNDER 47.5 in Sunday's big NFC North showdown between the Packers and Vikings. I know Green Bay has an all-time great at quarterback with Aaron Rodgers, but their offense has been far from elite in 2021. The Packers are 19th in scoring at just 21.6 ppg and 20th in total offense at just 339.4 yards/game. Let's also not forget they are down their top back in Aaron Jones, have lost their top tight end in Robert Tonyan, could be without wideout Allen Lazard and have some injuries up front on the offensive line. 

The thing with Green Bay is they haven't needed their offense to be great to win games because their defense has been so good. They are making good quarterbacks look average at best. Just look at what they have done in their last 3 games against Kyler Murray, Patrick Mahomes and Russell Wilson. It will be no different here against Kirk Cousins and what I think is a very overrated Vikings offense. '

Green bay hasn't had a game see more than 47 points since the calendar turned to October (7 straight games). Give me the UNDER 47.5! 

50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (OVER 221.5) 

I love the OVER 221.5 in tonight's big NBA game between the Nets and Warriors. I know the UNDERS have been cashing left and right to start the 2021-22 season, but I actually think it's playing into our favor with this number. 

These are two exceptional offensive teams. The Nets had their struggles early on offense, but that has changed here of late and a big reason for that is James Harden is finally starting to play up to his potential. As for the Warriors, they have been a force offensively, averaging 115.1 ppg. I think both teams could get into the 120's, but we really just need something like a 115-110 final to cash this easy. Give me the OVER 221.5! 

50* (NFL) - Rams/49ers MAX UNIT MNF Top Play (Under 50.5) 

I want nothing to do with the spread in this game. Rams look like the obvious choice at -3.5, but the obvious play in a prime time game never seems to go like you expect. I would much rather have a bet on the UNDER 50.5 for this division matchup. 

I just don't think this 49ers offense is very good. They have scored 21 or fewer in 4 of their last 5 and are up against a stingy Rams defense that has been really good against the run of laste. In LA's last 5 games they are giving up just 80.4 ypg on the ground. For San Francisco's offense to play well, they need to be able to run the ball to get to their play action in the passing game. 

On the flip side, I do think the 49ers have a solid defense. I know they have given up some points in a couple games here of late, but they allow the same 5.5 yards/play that the Rams do and you could argue that SF has played the harder schedule. I also think the loss of Robert Woods is huge, as it figures to take some time for Odell Beckham Jr to learn the Rams offense. The 49ers also have a great understanding of what McVay and that offense wants to do. 

UNDER is 21-7 in the Rams last 28 as a favorite and 11-4 in their last 15 off an ATS loss. UNDER is also 4-1 in the 49ers last 5 as an underdog. Give me the UNDER 50.5! 

50* (NFL) - Giants/Chiefs MNF MAX UNIT Top Play (OVER 52) 

*Analysis Coming* 

50* (NFL) - NFC South TOTAL OF THE YEAR (Under 50.5) 

I love the UNDER 50.5 in Sunday's big NFC South matchup between the Bucs and Saints. I just have a hard time seeing this being a shootout. In fact, I think it's going to be a struggle for both teams offensively. 

Tom Brady has been great, but almost all of their high point totals have come against bad defenses. They had 48 against the Falcons, 45 against the Dolphins and 38 vs the Bears. While Chicago's defense is horrible, that was just all turnovers by the Bears offense. Only 1 of TB's 6 scoring drives were more than 50 yards with 4 of the 5 needing 40 or less yards to reach the endzone. 

I think with Antonio Brown still out and Gronk likely either sidelined or playing at less than 100%, it's going to be hard for Brady and that offense to sustain drives against this Saints defense. 

On the flip side of this, it's no secret that Sean Payton has zero desires of letting Jameis Winston throw it 40+ times per game. That's not going to change just because the Bucs are banged up in the secondary. Their whole game plan is going to be to ride Kamara and do what they can to eat up clock and limit the possessions for Brady and that Bucs offense. 

Unless we get an uncharacteristic amount of turnovers or the Saints defense somehow gets exposed, this thing is going to finish in the low 40s. Give me the UNDER 50.5! 

50* (CFB) - Big 12 TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Over 66.5) 

I love the OVER 66.5 in Saturday's Big 12 showdown between Oklahoma and Texas Tech. I'm shocked the number here isn't in the 70's. I think some of that has to do with Oklahoma's lackluster performance this past Saturday against Kansas, but I'm not one that's going to read a lot into the Sooners not playing their best against the worst team in the conference. 

If anything I think that's a positive here, as it's going to make Oklahoma that much more motivated to get off to a strong start offensively in this game. I also think you got to look at what Oklahoma has done as a whole since Caleb Williams has replaced Spencer Rattler at quarterback. 

He was 100% the reason they were able to rally from that huge deficit in their 55-48 win over Texas and the very week he guided this team to 52 points in a win over TCU that saw 83 combined points. 

It wouldn't surprise me at all, if Oklahoma put up 50+ in this game. We have already seen Texas Tech give up that number twice, as Texas scored 70 on them and TCU had 52. 

Even if Oklahoma were to only get to 40, we would only need 27 from Tech to get the OVER and the Red Raiders are scoring 34.3 ppg and the fewest they have scored in any game all season is 23. This is also not a very good Sooners defense and the fact that KU was able to put up 23 points with over 400 yards of offense is probably the biggest takeaway you should take from that game. Give me the OVER 66.5! 

50* (CFB) - Big Ten TOTAL OF THE YEAR (Under 50.5) 

I was shocked when I saw this total in the 50s, but I guess I'm not shocked when you look at the offensive numbers that these two teams have put up. Michigan State is scoring 34.3 ppg, 452 yards/game and 7.0 yards/play, while Michigan comes in at 37.7 ppg, 443 ypg and 6.3 yards/play. 

We can start to uncover the value when we look at just conference games. If you only focus on Big Ten opponents, Michigan State is scoring just 28.0 ppg, 398.5 ypg and 6.6 yards/play, which Michigan goes down to 30.8 ppg, 389.0 ypg and 5.3 yards/play. 

The other big thing here is the schedule. Both Michigan and Michigan State have played very favorable schedules to this point. The Wolverines are 4-0 in Big Ten play with wins over Rutgers, Wisconsin, Nebraska and Northwestern. They did score 38 against the Badgers, but only had 365 yards and it was a 20-10 game going into the 4th quarter. The Spartans are 4-0 in Big Ten play with wins over Northwestern, Nebraska, Rutgers and Indiana and they only managed to score 23 vs the Cornhuskers and 20 last time out vs the Hoosiers. 

These are also two offensive teams that want to run the football and are going up against two defenses that have been really good at stopping the run. Michigan is only giving up 3.6 yards/carry and Michigan State is allowing only 3.3 yards/carry. 

I just think in a game of this magnitude, both teams are going to be a little more conservative out of the gate and all the running for 3-4 yards is going to eat up the clock and keep this thing in the low 40s. Give me the UNDER 50.5! 

50* (NFL) - Bucs/Eagles MAX UNIT Top Play (OVER 52) 

I love the OVER 52 in tonight's Thursday Night Football matchup between the Bucs and Eagles. I already think there's an edge to the OVER in these Thursday games, but this matchup we have in Week 6 has shootout written all over it. 

I'm extremely confident that Tom Brady and the Bucs are going to score and score a lot. Not only do they have the best to ever do it at quarterback, but they got one of the best set of skill players in the league. I also think we have seen when Tampa Bay gets matched up with a poor defense they aren't afraid to run it up. They put up 48 on the Falcons and 45 last week against the Dolphins. 

Philly's defense isn't horrible, but their strength is their defensive line and it's just not going to be a big factor in this game. Not only do the Bucs have a pretty good offensive line, few are better than Brady at getting it to the open guy before the pressure gets home. 

Eaglys have faced two offenses that are similar in the Cowboys and Chiefs. Both Dallas and Kansas City did whatever they wanted. Cowboys put up 41 and the Chiefs scored 42. Would not shock me at all if TB had 40+ in this game. 

The other big key here is the Bucs aren't an elite defense by any means. I know they only gave up 17 in each of their last two games, but that was against two bad offenses. One led by a rookie in Mac Jones and the other a subpar veteran in Jacoby Brissett. Jalen Hurts should be able to make some plays and I feel pretty good about the Eagles scoring at least 24 in this one. Give me the OVER 52! 

50* (CFB) - App St/Lafayette MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 57) 

I like the UNDER 57 in Tuesday's Sun Belt action between Appalachian State and Louisiana Lafayette. This is a pretty big matchup in the Sun Belt. Most had these two teams picked to win their respective divisions and meet up in the conference title game. Both are off to a strong 4-1 start and are undefeated in conference play. More times than not, big games are lower-scoring than expected. 

I also like how these two teams matchup. Both teams offensively want to establish the run game. Ragin' Cajuns run in 54% of the time and the Mountaineers rush it 57% of the time. Lafayette also likes to play at a slower pace (T-70th in plays/game). 

While these aren't elite run defenses, I think both are a little better vs the run than what people think. App State's numbers are solid. They only give up 118 ypg and 3.6 ypc. However, that's come against teams who average 151 ypg and 4.2 ypc. Lafayette's numbers look a lot worse. They are giving up 171 ypg and 4.1 ypc. However, that's come against teams averaging 190 ypg and 4.8 ypc. Ragin' Cajuns should also get a boost defensively playing at home. 

UNDER has cashed in 7 of the 9 meetings between these two teams. Last year they combined for just 45 in a 24-21 Lafayette win. Neither team sniffed 300 yards of offense. Cajuns ran it 45 times to 24 pass attempts. Mountaineers ran it 49 times to 21 pass attempts. Just don't see enough possessions to surpass this number. Give me the UNDER 57!