This game doesn't count on the regular season standings. But the intensity level should be even higher because this is the championship game of the WNBA Commissioner's Cup. The winner earns $500,000, which isn't chump change especially to WNBA players.

Caitlin Clark has missed Indiana's last two games because of a groin strain. She's questionable. I like the Under with or without Clark. The injury obviously has caused her shooting to be off. Clark has missed an unbelievable 22 of her last 23 3-pointers.

Minnesota is the No. 1 defensive team in the league surrendering just 74.2 points per game. The Lynx also rank No. 2 in defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense. Lynx center Napheesa Collier is the incumbent Defensive Player of the Year. That's bad news for Fever center Aliyah Boston, who has reached star level and is averaging 21 points during her past five games.

If Clark is limited and Boston is controlled by Collier, the Fever will be severely impacted offensively. The Lynx are a deliberate team so the pace shouldn't be fast.

Having added top-12 stars Satou Sabally and Alyssa Thomas to holdout Kahleah Cooper, the Mercury have the potential to be a huge scoring team. That potential has started to manifest itself.

Phoenix is the hottest team in the WNBA having won six in a row. The Mercury are hitting their scoring stride averaging 100.6 points in their last three games with two of those games occurring against one of the best defensive teams in the league, New York. 

Now the Mercury get the desperate and defensively-challenged Aces at home. Las Vegas is ninth defensively and 11th in defensive field goal percentage. If the Aces are going to even their record at 8-8 with an upset of the Mercury, they're going to have to do it on the offensive end. 

The Aces are the most accurate free throw shooting team in the WNBA. Yet they got to shoot only 12 free throws at home against the Mystics, in a 94-83 loss this past Thursday. 

A'Ja Wilson still is the best player in the league - and she's highly frustrated. The Mercury have allowed an average of 23.3 free throws during their last three games. Look for the Aces to feed Wilson. The Aces know the only way to stay with the Mercury is to go at them hard with Wilson and match them on the offensive end because their defense isn't good enough. 

The Aces have the firepower to do this with Wilson, Jackie Young, Chelsea Gray and Jewell Loyd.

The Mystics are playing their best ball of the season winning four of their last five games, including the past three. They tied for the best point spread record last season and have covered six of their last eight games. 

I like the Mystics to beat the Wings today. 

Dallas is playing on consecutive days for the first time this season. The Wings had a huge game last night selling out American Airlines Center with 20,409 fans in attendance to watch them host Indiana. The Fever didn't have Caitlin Clark, but still beat Dallas, 94-86. The Wings played well in spurts. They just aren't a good team. 

The Wings have one win against an above .500 team. That was against Atlanta. The only other teams the Wings have defeated are the expansion Valkyries and Connecticut, which has the worst record in the WNBA at 2-14. 

I don't see the Wings being up for this game like they were last night. They aren't good enough to beat the Mystics unless they play well. 
The Mystics have taken off since center Shakira Austin returned from injury. Austin is averaging 20.2 points and 9.2 rebounds in her last four games.

The Mystics have excellent depth. Their leading scorer, guard Brittney Skyes, has been out. But Sug Sutton and Lucy Olsen have done a good job filling in. 

Paige Bueckers is going to be the rookie-of-the-year. But Washington has the next two best rookies in Sonia Citron and Kiki Iriafen.

It was no fluke the Mercury upset the Liberty, 89-81, as 11 1/2-point road 'dogs eight days ago. Phoenix is playing much better than New York.

The Mercury are home and at full strength while the Liberty remains without injured star and their top rebounder, Jonquel Jones (ankle), and key rotation player Leonie Fiebich (playing for Germany).

The Mercury are the hottest team in the league with five straight victories. They are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games.

The Liberty are 2-3 in their last five games, 0-5 ATS. This is their third consecutive road game and third game in six days. They barely held off the expansion Valkyries two days ago winning, 81-78.

Phoenix has its three stars healthy - Satou Sabally, Alyssa Thomas and Kahleah Cooper. The Mercury are averaging 89.6 points during their past five games. New York is averaging 80.3 points in its last three games.

The timing is perfect for the Mercury to make a major statement at home by knocking off the reeling defending league champions.

The expansion Valkyries are an amazing 7-6. They are only two wins away from going Over their season win total. Golden State doesn't have a winning record because of its offense.
 
The Valkyries are the worst 3-point shooting team in the WNBA and rank second-to-last in field goal percentage. The Valkyries, though, are disciplined, well-coached and intense on defense rating fifth in the league and third in defensive field goal percentage. Golden State has held its last six opponents to an average of only 72.6 points. 

Golden State doesn't come close to having the star power New York does. But the Liberty could be without two of their three biggest stars. Jonquel Jones is out with an ankle injury. Sabrian Ionescu is questionable after she missed the Liberty's last game with a neck injury.

The Liberty lost that game to the Storm three days ago. They are going to be up for this game because of that. 

Even though Breanna Stewart and Ionescu are great scorers, the Liberty has the best defensive rating in the WNBA. New York gives up the second-fewest points per game at 76.3 and is first in defensive field goal percentage. 

The two teams met twice late last month. Both games went Under. The Liberty held the Valkyries to an average of 72 points during those games, both victories.

Retooled Indiana was supposed to be good enough to challenge for the WNBA title this season. Through 13 games, it hasn't gone that way for the 6-7 Fever.

Caitlin Clark is back from injury, but has missed 16 of 17 3-point shots during the past two games. The Fever lost each of those games falling to the expansion Valkyries and the Aces, who are below .500 themselves. Things are not looking up for the Fever as they play their third road game in a row taking on hot Seattle.

The Storm are playing their best ball winning six of their last seven games. Seattle has defeated much better teams than the Fever during this span, including the Lynx and defending champion Liberty although New York was missing two of its three best players in that game, Sabrina Ionescu and Jonquel Jones.

This point spread is too low considering the circumstances. Seattle has won three in a row. The Storm's confidence is up and they are home. Nneka Ogwumike may be the hottest player in the WNBA averaging 25.7 points in her last three games. Skylar Diggins is an elite guard and Gabby Williams is the most underrated player in the league. Opponents get sky high for the Fever because of the presence of Clark and the media attention she brings.

The timing is bad right now for Indiana. Stephanie White was supposed to be a huge coaching upgrade on Christie Sides. White hasn't cleaned that low bar yet. White already has missed a couple of games due to personal reasons. Not a good look with this being her first year coaching the Fever.

Morale is not good for the Fever. Critics are saying White isn't running the right offense for Clark. The Fever was supposed to have upgraded their bench. But core veteran DeWanna Bonner is out for personal reasons and the reserves have been underwhelming during the current road trip.  

Clark and White are proven winners. They likely will get their ship back on the right course. But for now, they can't be backed.

The expansion Valkyries have been a major storyline in the WNBA going 6-6. They are the biggest overachievers in the league.

Now, for the first  time, the Valkyries are favored. And it's by a huge number.

Connecticut is way down this season. But the Sun are a prideful team having gone deep into the playoffs the past few years. They still have some star power with Marina Mabrey and Tina Charles. That gives the Sun the two best players on the court.

Golden State has never been in this position before as big chalk. I prefer the Valkyries as underdogs. They are well-coached and scrappy. However, they do not have much talent on their team. Their roster is full of good role-type players rather than stars.

It's a sandwich spot, too, for the Valkyries. They are off a hugely-satisfying, 88-77, home win against the Fever and Caitlin Clark. The Valkyries host the defending champion Liberty in their next game. So they can be excused if they don't approach this matchup with their normal intensity. If the Valkyries aren't playing well, I don't see them covering a game in this point spread range.

This isn't the best of spots for Atlanta. The Dream are back home for the first time in a week. They just lost to the Liberty, 86-81, in a marquee road game this past Tuesday.

After this game, the Dream host the Sky in a Sunday day matchup. That's a bigger game for Atlanta because of the Sky being so high-profile with Angel Reese.

The Mystics have rapid revenge for an embarrassing, 89-56, home loss to the Dream five days ago. Washington shot only 30 percent from the floor and missed 14 of 17 3-point tries.

That's the only game of their last four games Washington hasn't covered. The Mystics received a confidence boost with a 79-72 road victory against the Sky three days ago in their last game. Center Shakira Austin had her best game of the season for Washington. She's an underrated, key player for the Mystics.

The Mystics haven't been good offensively, but they are above average defensively and are the No. 1 defensive rebounding team.

New York is the highest-scoring team in the WNBA averaging 90.1 points a game. The Liberty has been amazingly consistent on the offensive end scoring at least 85 points in 10 of their 11 games.

The Liberty, though, has allowed an average of 91.5 points during their last two games. Those games were against the Dream and Fever, both of whom have mulitple offensive stars in their lineup. Phoenix also has stars in its lineup.

The Mercury greatly upgraded their roster during the off-season bringing in Alyssa Thomas and Satou Sabally to join Kahleah Cooper. The Mercury are averaging 84 points in their last three games. Their offense is picking up with Cooper back after being out. 

Phoenix did play last night, defeating Connecticut. Prior to that, though, the Mercury had not played in three days. They should be up for this marquee matchup after failing to cover as double-digit favorites against the Sun.

Not only is Connecticut 2-9 and arguably the worst team in the WNBA. But the Sun have to play on consecutive days, something extremely rare in the WNBA. 

The Sun have to do this, too, traveling and off a physical, dirty game on the road against Indiana last night. There were multiple technical fouls called in the game and two Connecticut players were ejected, Jacy Sheldon and Lindsay Allen. A third Connecticut player, Marina Mabrey, should have been ejected for shoving Caitlin Clark to the floor.

Tina Charles played a game-high 30 minutes. The 36-year-old Charles is Connecticut's best front-court player. You have to think she could be rested for this matchup.

All in all, it's simply one of the worst spots of the season for one of the worst teams.

Phoenix loaded up during the off-season getting Alyssa Thomas and Satou Sabally to join holdover star Kahleah Cooper, who is back healthy. Thomas and Sabally are among the best dozen players in the league. Thomas should be especially motivated returning to Connecticut having played 11 years for the Sun. 

The Mercury are 8-4, finding their stride with a 5-2 ATS record in their last seven games. They last played on Sunday.

At 5-5, the expansion Valkyries are way ahead of their projected season win total of 8 1/2. Natalie Nakase would get my vote for Coach of the Year if the season ended today.

Unfortunately for Golden State it doesn't.

Things are about to get a lot worse for the Valkyries. That's because EuroBasket 2025 starts Wednesday. Golden State will be missing four of its top seven players because of it. The Valkyries will be missing two of their three best players - Temi Fagbenle, who is competing in EuroBasket, and injured Tiffany Hayes - not to mention losing much of their depth.

The timing for this game couldn't be better for Dallas. The Wings are in dire condition at a league-worst 1-11 after blowing an 11-point lead against the Aces with 3:34 left during their last game, this past Friday.

Dallas is the biggest underachievers in the league. First-year coach Chris Koclanes is coming under heavy fire. This is a true circle-the-wagons game for the Wings.

Dallas has the talent. Paige Bueckers is living up to the high expectations of being the No. 1 overall draft pick and future superstar. She's averaging 17.4 points, 6.1 assists and 1.9 steals per game. Arike Ogunbowale was the MVP of last year's All-Star game. DiJonai Carrington gives the Wings the three best players on the court.

It's not a surprise Phoenix is a road favorite against Las Vegas. The Aces are way down from their championship team of two seasons ago and are without reigning league MVP, A'Ja Wilson. She remains sidelined being in concussion protocol. Wilson's importance can't be stressed enough. She leads the Aces in points (20.9), rebounds (9.6 rebounds) and assists (4.0). She also prevents opponents from driving the lane with her defense and shot-blocking.

The Aces had not been playing well even with Wilson. Their only victory against an above .500 team was against the 6-5 Storm.

Phoenix has the second-best record in the Western Conference at 7-4. The Mercury rank fourth defensively giving up 78.3 points a game. By contrast, the Aces rank ninth defensively permitting 84 points a game and now they don't have Wilson.

The 1-11 Wings, the worst team in the league, put up 84 points against the Aces despite scoring only two points during the final four minutes. The Aces exerted tremendous energy in coming from way behind to beat the Wings at home two days ago. They still could be tired from that game since it was their first full game minus Wilson. Rested Phoenix has been idle since Wednesday.

The Fever aren't the only team that looks much improved this season in the WNBA. Atlanta is looking like a top-five team and has a better record than Indiana.

The Dream had won four in a row, the latest being an impressive road victory against the Storm, until losing their last game. That was a stunning upset to the Sun this past Friday.

Atlanta is not in letdown mode for this one. Quite the opposite. The Dream have had four days to stew about that defeat. They should be heavily motivated to take on the Fever, who not only will be missing superstar Caitlin Clark, but also Sophie Cunningham.

Indiana isn't in Atlanta's class without Clark. The Fever are 2-2 minus Clark beating the Mystics and Sky, whose combined record is 6-13, while scoring victories against the Sun and Mystics. Atlanta is the best team the Fever are facing without Clark.

The Fever are hoping to have Clark back for their following game, which is a nationally televised home game against the defending champion Liberty on Saturday. That's the game the Fever are pointing to.

Not only do the Sparks possess a huge talent edge against the Valkyries, but this also is a good situational spot for Los Angeles. 
Golden State could still be on Cloud 9 after stunning the Aces, 95-68, at home this past Saturday. That was the first-year Valkyries' biggest win in their short existence. 

It also puts the Valkyries in a letdown spot against the revenge-minded Sparks. Los Angeles lost to Golden State, 82-73, as 10 1/2-point home favorites on May 23. 

There isn't one player on expansion Golden State that I would rank above LA's top five players - Kelsey Plum, Dearica Hamby, Azura Stevens, Rickea Jackson and Odyssey Sims. Those players have made LA the No. 1 scoring team in the WNBA at 93.3 points a game. That's 16.3 points per game more than what the Valkyries average.

The marketplace has been betting this total down. It's low enough now for me to get involved in the Over. 

These teams opened the season against each other on May 18. Washington won, 90-85. That's a combined 175 points.

So what has happened lately? 

The Sun are showing offensive improvement. If you discount a beatdown they suffered against the defending champion and best team in the league, Liberty, they are averaging 85.3 points in their last three games. Connecticut just played its best game of the season, beating the Dream, 84-76, two days ago. 

The Mystics are an up-tempo team. They haven't played good defense, giving up 86, 85 and 85 points during their past three games. They aren't shooting well either. That should change here, though, as Connecticut ranks 10th in scoring defense, last in defensive field goal percentage and second-to-last in 3-point defensive percentage.

Given their star power, the Storm have been underachieving on the offensive end ranking ninth in scoring. Seattle last played on Tuesday. The Storm have used this extra practice time to work on their offense. I'm expecting that to show in this matchup.

The Mercury are averaging 88.3 points a game during their last three games, not including two games against the Lynx, the No. 2 defensive team in the WNBA.

Seattle is better than average on defense, but not in the Lynx's class.

Now that Paige Bueckers has been ruled out again due to a concussion, I feel confident backing the Sparks against the Wings here.

Los Angeles holds a talent edge, especially with Dallas missing Bueckers, who I already consider the Wings' best all-around player.

While Bueckers remains out, the Sparks are getting back Rickea Jackson. She's one of the team's better players. The Sparks are in circle-the-wagons mode at 2-6 and with a three-game losing streak. The Sparks have been idle since Sunday giving them ample time to prepare and game plan.

The Sparks rank 10th defensively allowing 84.1 points per game. Yet their defense still is better than the Wings, who rate 11th allowing 88.5 points a game. Dallas was terrible defensively last year and the team still hasn't fixed its defensive woes.

LA is the more talented and healthy team. The spot sets up for the Sparks, too. So it's not too much to ask them just to win the game by laying extra juice with a money line play.

New York is the No. 1 scoring team in the WNBA averaging 90.5 points per game. The Liberty also are first in field goal and 3-point shooting percentage.

Washington doesn't have the defense to stop New York. Washington has allowed 85 points in each of its last two games.

The Mystics like to play up-tempo, which is the style of their first-year coach, Sydney Johnson. The Liberty will be fresh to play at a fast pace having been idle for the last three days after scoring 100 points against Connecticut in their last game.

Washington has scoring talent. The Mystics are overdue for a big offensive showing.

Since losing superstar Caitlin Clark to a quad strain, Indiana has gone 0-2. The Fever lost to Washington, 83-77, as a four-point road favorite last Wednesday and then was humbled by Connecticut - the worst team in the WNBA - with an 85-83 loss as a double-digit home favorite last Friday.

The Fever had veteran guards Sophie Cunningham and Sydney Colson when they lost to the Mystics last week. Now those two aren't expected to play because of injuries joining Clark on the sidelines. It leaves the Fever so thin at guard that they had to apply to the league to get an emergency hardship in order to sign guard Aari McDonald.

So not are the Fever going to be missing Clark and her across the board production and leadership - 19 points a game, 9.3 assists, 6.0 rebounds, 1.3 steals and 31.4 percent shooting from 3-point range - but they are down to their fourth-string point guard.

Washington is not a patsy. The Mystics tied for the best point spread record in the league last year at 25-14-1 (64 percent) and has a winning point spread record this season. They have the best guard on the court by far with Clark out in Brittney Sykes and a pair of rookie-of-the-year candidates, Sonia Citron and Kiki Iriafen.

The Mystics are physical and they like to run. The Fever are going to have problems staying with them minus Clark.

The Aces' offense is coming around with newcomer Jewell Loyd joining stars A'Ja Wilson, Jackie Young and Chelsea Gray. The Aces just produced 96 points against the Sparks two days ago. Wilson is the third-leading scorer in the WNBA.

Seattle is giving up an average of 86 points per game in its last three games.

However, the Aces' defense still remains a work in progress. Las Vegas ranks 9th defensively surrendering an average of 81.8 points a game. The Aces rank second-to-last in defensive field goal percentage. The Storm have the star power to take advantage.

Seattle proved that last Sunday when it buried Las Vegas, 102-82. While the Storm are not going to hit 60 percent of their shots from the floor like they did against the Aces last week, I do believe there will be enough scoring from both teams to easily sail above the number, which the marketplace has bet down into even more of a reasonable number.

The Liberty are the defending WNBA champions. They are 5-0 this season. But I don't find the Liberty that great right now, especially without star center Jonquel Jones. She missed Thursday's home game against the expansion Valkyries because of a hamstring injury. New York only beat the Valkyries by five points. Golden State was down by just one point with less than 25 seconds left in the game.

Now the Liberty have to play without rest for the first time this season. It's also their third game in four days. If Jones remains out, it's even a worse spot for New York, which doesn't have the excellent depth it had last season.

All Washington does is cover point spreads. The Mystics tied Minnesota for the top point spread mark last season at 25-14-1. The Mystics are 4-2 ATS this year.

Washington is underrated ranking third in rebounding and fifth defensively. The Mystics last played on Wednesday when they upset the Fever at home. The Mystics have a pair of outstanding rookies, Sonia Citron and Kiki Iriafen, and are getting a career season from point guard Brittney Sykes, who is the No. 3 scorer in the WNBA averaging 22 points.

The Fever are a frustrated bunch. Caitlin Clark is out with an injury and the Fever just suffered an upset road loss to the Mystics this past Wednesday. 
I look for the Fever at home to take their frustrations out on the perfect patsy, Connecticut. 

This isn't the successful Sun team of the two previous seasons that reached the conference semifinals each of those years under Stephanie White. The Sun are in total rebuild with a first-year coach and all new starters. They are the worst team in the WNBA at 0-5, 1-4 ATS. 

White is now Indiana's head coach. Worse for the Sun is they are banged-up especially in the backcourt where their second-leading scorer and assists leader, Marina Mabrey, is questionable and Lindsay Allen is out. Frontcourt player, Olivia Nelson-Ododa, is questionable, too. She's Connecticut's third-leading scorer and second-best rebounder. 

The Fever desperately want to prove they are far more than just Caitlin Clark. This is their golden opportunity to show that.

Chicago has yet to win this season going 0-4. However, I see that changing here with the Sky earning their first victory. They draw a 1-4 Dallas team that is playing its fourth straight road game. 

The Sky are the worst defensive team in the WNBA. Dallas, though, isn't much better. The Wings rank 11th out of 13 teams defensively. 
Chicago's first two games were brutal - at the Fever and against New York, the defending champions and best team in the WNBA. The Sky have begun showing improvement under new coach Tyler Marsh. Chicago led Phoenix by 16 points on the road before losing, 94-89, this past Tuesday. Dallas also has a first-year head coach, Chris Koclanes.

The Wings' lone victory is against rebuilding Connecticut, who I rate as the worst team in the league. The Wings have two stars in rookie Paige Bueckers and Arike Ogunbowale. The Sky, though, are not without talent. They have two of the best young frontcourt players in Angel Reese and Kamilla Cardoso and a veteran backcourt of Courtney Vandersloot and Ariel Atkins. 

The Sky are not outclassed here. They are home and catching the Wings at the end of a long road trip. The spot is ripe for Chicago to win.

Even though Indiana is missing Caitlin Clark, the Mystics are going to have a big crowd for this home game and they won't lack motivation. This is Washington's first home game since May 16 when it opened with an upset of Atlanta.

The Mystics have been on the road for their four games. They went 1-3 in those games, but with the three defeats coming by a combined 11 points. The Mystics led late in the game, too, during all three of those losses.

Except for center Shakira Austin, who is questionable, the Mystics are finally healthy. They have the best guard on the court with Clark out in Brittney Sykes, who is having a breakout season under new coach Sydney Johnson. Sykes ranks No. 3 in scoring at 22.3 points and is ninth in assists.

Besides Clark's obvious scoring talents, the Fever are going to miss her leadership. Indiana is much deeper and better coached than last season. But the Fever players, particularly All-Star center Aliyah Boston, aren't going to be as effective without Clark getting them the ball at their right spots.

The Fever still have good players, but the Mystics are being underrated here. Washington ranks first in the WNBA in defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense.

Washington tied with Minnesota for the top point spread record in the WNBA last season at 25-14-1 (64 percent) and they have a winning ATS mark this season.

Having played the Fever and Aces, two high-scoring opponents full of star power, the Liberty are dropping way down in offensive class to host the expansion Valkyries. Golden State is second-to-last in the league in scoring at 75 points a game. The Valkyries are last in the WNBA in both field goal percentage and 3-point percentage.

The Valkyries have trouble scoring despite having played Los Angeles twice. The Sparks have the second-worst defense in the WNBA. The Liberty rank No. 3 in scoring defense. They had the No. 1 defense last season. 

However, the Valkyries are 2-1 because they give up the third-fewest points in the league at 77 per game. 

So I don't see a lot of points in this one, especially since it's a letdown spot for the Liberty and the Valkyries will be motivated to keep the score respectable against the defending champion.

Even when they won the WNBA championship last year, the Liberty's average winning margin was 9.1 points. Now look at this point spread. The perception is the Valkyries are the worst team in the WNBA because they are an expansion team. 

Well they are not. 

Golden State didn't go the normal expansion route. The Valkyries picked veterans instead of youth. They have a roster composed of decent players, many of whom would rank as either fringe starters or key role players. The Valkyries are 2-1. They could be better than three or four teams in the league. 

New York is fat and happy at 3-0. The Liberty returned to New York after nipping the Fever on the road in a marquee national televised game this past Saturday. This is a letdown spot for New York. 

The Liberty have played three bad defensive teams - Fever, Sky and Aces. The Valkyries give up the third-fewest points in the league at 77 per game. They can hang given this large of a point spread.

Typical of the WNBA that its biggest game of the season - the defending champion Liberty against Caitlin Clark and the upstart Fever - would be played as an early Saturday day game. But that's the WNBA for you.

Anyways, this sets up as a solid Under play.

There's going to be a playoff-type atmosphere in Indiana for this one. That means increased defensive intensity. The early Saturday start is another plus for the Under.

New York is giving up 76 points a game. The Liberty rank first in the WNBA in defensive field goal percentage. They are not going to let Clark embarrass them.

Indiana is stepping way up in defensive class after having its first three games come against weak defensive teams Chicago and Atlanta (twice). The Fever should be paying more attention to defense under new coach Stephanie White, who is a huge upgrade from Christie Sides. White coached Connecticut last season and the Sun were the No.1 ranked defense.

First off, we have the WNBA's top defensive team, Minnesota, going here. The Lynx are facing a disjointed Wings offense that has a new coach and new roster composition. The Lynx's defense should be especially tough because it's their first home game. 

It's only a matter of time before Paige Bueckers becomes Dallas' best player - if she isn't already. Right now that honor is accorded to Arike Ogunbowale, who is a consensus top-eight player in WNBA fantasy drafts. 

Ogunbowale, though, is a better fantasy player than real player. She's been one of the league's worst shooters for the past few years and she's started slow this year just six-of-26 from the floor and one-of-11 from 3-point range during Dallas' first two games. Worse, Ogunbowale is a ball hog. I don't expect her to break her shooting slump against an elite Lynx defense. 

New Wings coach Chris Koclanes is bringing with him a defensive emphasis. One of the players the Wings acquired during the off-season was DiJonai Carrington, one of the better defensive players in the league. The Wings could catch a break as the Lynx have been without two of their four best scorers as Kayla McBride and Alanna Smith have yet to play this season. 

These teams are familiar with each other, too, having met just five days ago in Dallas. The Lynx won, 99-84. That total went well Over. But there were just a combined 36 points scored during the final quarter. There should be more defensive intensity for this quick rematch.

Dallas was the worst defensive team in the WNBA last year and the Wings don't look any better this season under new coach Chris Koclanes judging by their opening game. The Wings surrendered 99 points to Minnesota at home. Minnesota was missing two of its four best offensive players, too.

The Lynx are known for their outstanding defense rather than producing big points. But scoring wasn't a problem for them against Dallas.

The Wings are stepping down in defensive class now facing Seattle, which looked terrible in its opener losing on the road to Phoenix, 81-59.

Dallas should be able to get its points against the Storm especially with star player Arike Ogunbowale having had a game to play with Paige Bueckers, the No. 1 overall draft pick. Bueckers is an emerging superstar. The Wings did put up 84 points on the Lynx, who were the No. 2 defense in the league last year giving up 75 points a game.

I'm expecting a much better performance from Seattle. So is the oddsmaker, who has made the Storm the favorite. The Storm shot just 33.3 percent from the floor against Phoenix and 17.6 percent from 3-point range. It's not a stretch to believe the Storm will shoot much better against the Wings. Seattle has its share of star power, too, with Skylar Diggins and Nneka Ogwumike. They also have Gabby Williams, a very underrated player.

The Storm are a good team. Not elite, but above average with plenty of star power and experience.

I'm not so sure about Phoenix. The Mercury have a big three of Alyssa Thomas, Satou Sabally and Kahleah Cooper, but lack depth and backcourt experience.

It's a good time to play Phoenix right now. That's because Cooper is out with a knee injury. The Mercury are thin in the backcourt and the team is going through an adjustment period as Thomas and Sabally are new to Phoenix. It's a new look for the Mercury as Diana Taurasi retired after 20 seasons with the team and Brittney Griner left Phoenix in free agency after 11 years.

Judging by an 0-2 preseason, including a loss to the expansion Valkyries, the Mercury have yet to develop any chemistry.

So I don't see the Mercury ready yet to beat a borderline top-five team.

The Liberty are facing a huge distraction in this, their opening game of the season. That's because New York won its first WNBA championship last season. So there will be a ring ceremony and raising of the championship banner.

The Aces will be watching this unfold mad knowing the Liberty ended their two-year reign as league champion. I expect the Aces to be the more motivated team.

I also consider the Aces to be the superior team.

Unlike the previous two seasons, the Aces aren't drawing nearly so much preseason attention. The champion bullseye is on the Liberty not them now.

Las Vegas traded Kelsey Plum for Jewell Loyd, an even exchange. The Aces still retain A'Ja Wilson, the best player in the WNBA, along with star guards Jackie Young and Chelsea Gray, who is healthier than she was last season. The Aces also have improved their bench with promising center Elizabeth Kitley and veteran guards Tiffany Mitchell and Dana Evans.

The Liberty could be without two keys. Defensive ace Betnijah Laney-Hamilton is out for the season due to an off-season knee injury and Leonie Fiebich is questionable.  

Getting points with the Aces is just a bonus.

Atlanta has a much more star-packed roster than Washington. The Dream have four players - Allisha Gray, Rhyne Howard, Brittney Griner and Brionna Jones - who are better than anybody on Washington's roster.

Making matters worse for the Mystics is they will be without two of their four best players. Out for Washington is center Shakira Austin, its best frontcourt player, and forward Aaliyah Edwards.

The Mystics have a new coach, Sydney Johnson, who brings in a whole different system. It's going to take time for the Mystics, who are in rebuilding mode, to get comfortable in Johnson's system.

The teams met during preseason on May 7. The road Dream beat Washington, 80-70.

The Lynx had the Liberty right where they wanted them. Minnesota led by 15 points at home in Wednesday's Game 3 championship series matchup in the best-of-five series.

The highlight play of the game was Sabrina Ionescu hitting a clutch 3-pointer with one second remaining on the shot clock at the end of the game to give New York an 80-77 victory.

The Liberty didn't play their "A" game, but still came away with the win.

The Lynx face three obstacles in trying to stave off elimination - a talent gap compared to how good the Liberty are, a quick mental turnaround following a devastating home loss after blowing a huge lead and center Alanna Smith's back injury.

Minnesota built its lead when Smith was on the court. Smith, though, only played 20 minutes after injuring her back guarding New York center Jonquel Jones late in the second quarter. The Lynx were plus-20 in points when Smith played. They were minus-19 in points during back-up center Myisha Hines-Allen nearly 18 minutes of playing time.

Napheesa Collier is Minnesota's superstar. Smith is the Lynx's unsung player. She is the team's top shotblocker, second-leading rebounder and fourth-leading scorer. The Lynx are in trouble against the best team in the WNBA with Smith at less than 100 percent.

No doubt the Lynx will give it a great shot. I just don't see them winning so I'm going to lay the higher juice and back New York on the money line.

There were just 146 points scored in New York's, 80-66, home win against Minnesota this past Sunday. Look for a similar low-scoring affair in this Game 3 matchup, especially with the venue switching to Minnesota.

The Lynx are a tremendous defensive team. They held foes to only 73 points at home. 

The Liberty are strong defensively, too, finishing either second or third in all of the major defensive categories. 

The intensity will be at a fever pitch with a capacity crowd expected at Target Center. 

Kudos to Minnesota for reaching the WNBA finals. But New York is the superior team - best in the WNBA this season - has home-court advantage and a good situational edge. 

Those factors are enough to back the Liberty in this point spread range.

New York eliminated two-time defending WNBA champion Las Vegas this past Sunday. The Liberty have been idle since eagerly awaiting the finals so they can prove they are indeed the best. 

The Lynx had it much rougher. They had to go the full five games against physical Connecticut. The Lynx beat the Sun at home in Tuesday's deciding Game 5. The schedule makers didn't do Minnesota any favors making this Game 1 fall on Thursday. It will be the Lynx's fourth game in six days.
 
Minnesota is an elite defensive team with a superstar, Napheesa Collier. New York is an elite defensive team, too, with a much better offense than Minnesota. The Liberty's 107 offensive rating was No. 1. So was their 32-8 regular season record. New York doesn't just have one superstar, but two in Breanna Stewart and Sabrina Ionescu. 

Minnesota's Napheesa Collier is one of the top-five players in the WNBA and will be the best player on the court. But after Collier, the Sun has four of the next five best players on the court.

Connecticut is the top defensive team in the league and fully tested when it comes to this late in the playoffs with this being the fifth and deciding game of this semifinals series.

So I find value in taking this many points with the Sun.

The Lynx are a strong defensive team, too. But Connecticut gave up the fewest points per game and had the best defensive rating.

The Lynx and Sun are the two top defensive teams in the WNBA. So it's no surprise the first two games of their semifinal series have each gone Under with 143 and 147 points, respectively, being scored.

I don't see anything changing in this important Game 3 with the series tied at 1-1. The oddsmaker hasn't adjusted the number downward so I'm getting involved with the Under.

Minnesota finished either first or second in scoring defense, defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense. Connecticut gave up a league-low 73.6 points per game. The Sun is No. 2 in 3-point defense and ranked first in defensive rebounding.

Both are half-court teams, too, playing at a slow tempo.

Las Vegas lost, 87-77, to New York in Game 1 this past Sunday in this WNBA semifinal playoff matchup.

The prideful two-time defending champion Aces won't go down 0-2 easily. Las Vegas stepped up its defense late in the season. The Aces held Seattle to an average of 71.5 points in their two-game playoff sweep of the Storm. That was 12 points below the Storm's season average.

The Liberty beat the Aces because they were exceptionally hot from the floor making 30 of their 60 field goal attempts for 50 percent shooting.

Even with the Liberty shooting lights out the combined score between the two teams was 164 points.  

I don't see the Liberty shooting that well for a second straight game. New York does play strong defense. The Liberty ranked third in scoring defense and second in defensive field goal percentage.

Just like in the NBA, defensive intensity is stepped up in the WNBA playoffs. That will be the case here. Look Under.

And so it will end tonight for Rookie-of-the-Year Caitlin Clark and the Indiana Fever. Thanks to Clark's generational talents, the Fever made the playoffs after going 13-27 last year.

I had the Sun in Game 1 and I'm backing them again after their, 93-69, rocking chair winner in Game 1 of this two-out-of-three series this past Sunday.

This is what I wrote before Sunday's game: There are four major factors working against the Fever now: Playoff inexperience, being on the road, facing the veteran Sun - the top defensive team in the WNBA - and the horrendous coaching of Christie Sides.

All of those factors were evident in Game 1.

The Sun are one of four elite teams in the WNBA along with the Liberty, Aces and Lynx. The rest of teams are tiers below, including the Fever. Connecticut opened this series having competed in 222 postseason games. The Fever's playoff experience consisted of 19 games, none from any of their starters. Indiana hadn't made the playoffs since 2016.

Connecticut led the WNBA in defense. Indiana ranked second-to-last. The Sun held the Fever 16 points below their season average. The magnificent Clark could manage only 11 points on 4-of-17 shooting from the field.

The Sun have now hosted the Fever three times this year. They've won all three games by margins of 17, 21 and 24 points. That's an average win margin of 20.6 points.

The oddsmaker only made a slight adjustment in the point spread. It's not nearly enough for the Fever to cover.

Do I expect Seattle to upset the Aces in Las Vegas and keep its playoff hopes alive down 1-0 in this best two-of-three series?

No. But it wouldn't shock me if the Storm pulled the upset. I'll certainly take this many points to find out.

Seattle is a savvy, veteran team that has a top-four defense and star power with Skylar Diggins-Smith, Nneka Ogwumike and Jewell Loyd, last year's WNBA leading scorer.

The Storm were right with the Aces in Sunday's Game 1 - until the fourth quarter. The Storm collapsed in the final period scoring only two free throws while going 0-for-12 from the field.

Yet the Aces still only won by 11 points, 78-67. Las Vegas shot 43 percent from the floor and 39 percent from 3-point range. Seattle shot 36.8 percent from the floor and missed 12 of its 16 3-point attempts for 25 percent.

You could tell from A'ja Wilson's postgame interview that Seattle was a tough opponent and that she and the rest of the Aces expect a much closer game.

New York averaged 85.6 points during the regular season. I don't see the Liberty being held below that total at home in this close-out Game 2 spot of their first-round playoff game. 

Atlanta is a good defensive team. The first game of this two-out-of-three series went Under with the Liberty winning, 83-69, last Sunday. 

New York has too many superstars for the Dream to handle with Sabrina Ionescu, Breanna Stewart and Jonquel Jones. 

If the Dream fall behind by double-digits - which is expected to happen - they will be forced to pick up tempo knowing a loss eliminates them. 
Atlanta shot 40 percent from the floor and made only 3-of-16 from 3-point range in Game 1. Allisha Gray, arguably the Dream's best player, had a bad game scoring only nine points on 3-of-9 shooting. She averages 15.6 points a game. 

The Dream just don't have Gray. Rhyne Howard is one of the better players in the league and center Tina Charles is an all-time great. She can hurt the Liberty inside. The Dream outscored the Liberty, 38-28, in the paint. The Dream just need better perimeter shooting. Gray and Howard are more than capable of providing that. 

It's been a great season for rookie Caitlin Clark and the Indiana Fever making the playoffs after they went 13-27 last year.

But there are four major factors working against the Fever now: Playoff inexperience, being on the road, facing the veteran Sun - the top defensive team in the WNBA - and the horrendous coaching of Christie Sides.

That's all going to catch up to Indiana in this opening game matchup.

Connecticut is one of four elite teams in the league. Indiana is a clear tier below. The Sun gave up 73.6 points per game, lowest in the WNBA. The Fever surrendered 87.7 points a game, which was second-highest in the league.

The Suns buried the Fever in the two games they hosted them winning by 17 and 21 points, respectively.

This is a rare time I'm getting involved with an Under in a Dallas game. The Wings have the worst defense in the WNBA.

But there are special circumstances in this matchup.

Since Connecticut, a monster favorite against Chicago, isn't going to lose to the Sky it renders this Dallas-Las Vegas game meaningless for the Aces. A Sun victory clinches the No. 3 playoff seed and locks the Aces into the No. 4 seed.

Realizing this, Aces coach Becky Hammon already has said she is going to rest her stars. That means A'Ja Wilson, Kelsey Plum, Jackie Young and Chelsea Gray are all going to sit out.

The Aces have a weak-scoring, seldom-used bench. Their No. 7 through No. 10 players combined average nine points. They are much better defensive players than scorers.

Dallas is the fifth-highest scoring team in the league. The Aces are likely to slow tempo. The prideful Aces don't want to be embarrassed on their home-court by the team that has the second-worst record in the WNBA. So I'm expecting Las Vegas' reserves to play hard and with defensive intensity since they are so limited offensively.

Aces coach Becky Hammon has been waiting all season for her two-time WNBA champion team to start playing defense. The wait is over because no team in the league has played better than Las Vegas during the past six games.

Las Vegas is giving up just 72.1 points during its past half dozen games. The Aces have held their last eight opponents below 80 points.

Seattle has been playing strong defense, too, holding its last six foes to an average of 76.1 points per game.

Defensive intensity should be on full display in this game as the Aces hold a one-game lead on the Storm for the No. 4 seed in the playoffs and the first-round home-court advantage that comes with that seeding.

The Storm are going to be missing two of their best players, Jewell Loyd (knee) and Ezi Magbegor (concussion). Loyd led the WNBA in scoring last year. She leads Seattle in scoring this season at 19.7 points a game. Magbegor averages 11.7 points and is Seattle's most accurate shooter with a 51.2 field goal percentage.

A'ja Wilson became the WNBA's first 1,000-point season scorer, accomplishing the feat in Las Vegas' last game. Hammon said she might cut Wilson's minutes to get her rested for the postseason now that Wilson broke the single-season scoring record.

I have to believe the Sky show up and play hard here after an embarrassing, 89-58, home loss to the Mystics this past Wednesday. Chicago has a one game lead on Washington and Atlanta for the final playoff spot. So there is incentive.

It's a weird scheduling spot for Minnesota. The Lynx last played at home on Sept. 1 when they defeated the Sky, 79-74. The Lynx then played three straight road games before returning home for this one game before heading back on the road to face the Liberty in New York on Sunday. That's a much bigger matchup for Minnesota. So it wouldn't be surprising if focus and concentration aren't all there for the Lynx.

Angel Reese is out for the season. However, the Sky still have three other good players with Chennedy Carter, rookie center Kamilla Cardoso, who draws more of the spotlight with Reese out, and underrated Isabelle Harrison, who has looked good since returning from injury.

Must-win time for the Mystics as they trail the Sky by two games for the final playoff spot in the WNBA with five games to play.

Washington is 2-1 vs. Chicago this year. Angel Reese played in all three of those games for the Sky. Reese is now out for the season following a wrist injury. Reese is one of the best rebounders in the league and the Sky's second-best player next to Chennedy Carter.

Chicago has won its last two games. Those games, though, were against the two worst teams in the WNBA, the Wings and Sparks. The Sky had lost seven in a row before getting to play Dallas and Los Angeles.

Scoring is a problem for the Sky. They rank 10th out of 12 teams in scoring, field goal percentage and 3-point percentage. Chicago also is last in free throw percentage.

The Mystics have been underrated by the oddsmaker all season. They have the league's best spread mark at 23-11-1 (67 percent) ATS. This includes covering seven of their last eight games.

The Wings weren't playing any defense when they still were going for a playoff spot. Now that they have been eliminated from post-season contention their defense may get even worse - if that's possible. 

Dallas is the worst defensive team in the WNBA by far ranking last in scoring defense and defensive field goal percentage. It's not a fluke the Over has cashed in 15 of the Wings' past 21 games for 71 percent. 

The Wings have allowed 90 or more points in nine of their last 11 games. New York is the No. 2 scoring team in the WNBA averaging 85.3 points. 
The Liberty let up in a 75-71 home win against the Aces this past Sunday because Las Vegas was minus superstar center A'Ja Wilson.

New York should play better offensively against such a weak defensive opponent especially knowing they didn't play that well in their last game.

Ever since losing the championship series to the Aces last year, the Liberty have had it in for Las Vegas. New York is 2-0 vs. the Aces this season with both victories occurring in Las Vegas.

Now the Liberty draw the Aces at home. 

Las Vegas has won four in a row since getting upset by the lowly Wings. However, the spot sets up well for the Liberty and not just for motivational purposes. 

New York has been idle since Thursday when it defeated Seattle at home. The Aces had to play extremely hard rallying from a 12-point halftime deficit to beat Connecticut on the road this past Friday night. A'ja Wilson might not be 100 percent and star guard Jackie Young played so poorly against the Sun that she was benched. 

This marks the Aces' fourth game in eight days - all at different sites. It's also an early start time for Las Vegas being a day game. 
The Liberty has been playing extremely well winning 11 of their last 13 games.

They've also been much better defensively than the Aces surrendering an average of 73.5 points during their past 13 games. 

The Wings can't do two things: Play defense and win on the road. They are the worst defensive team in the WNBA by far. They've also lost 13 consecutive road games with 11 of those defeats coming by double-digits. 

The Dream is tied with the Sky for the final playoff spot. The Wings are two games behind those teams and likely more concerned with getting a high draft pick given how poorly they play defense.

Dallas ranks last in scoring defense allowing 90.7 points per game and also is last in defensive field goal percentage. The Wings have permitted at least 90 points in seven of their past nine games. This is their first road game since Aug. 22. 

Atlanta gives up 10.2 fewer points per game than Dallas. The Dream ranks last in scoring, but that number is skewed because their leading scorer, Ryhne Howard, missed 10 games. The Dream are at full strength now. 

Washington has the second-worst record in the WNBA at 10-23. However, the Mystics have the best point spread mark at 21-11-1 (66 percent).

The Mystics are playing well winning four of their past five games, including road victories against the Storm, Sky and Wings during this span.

Phoenix is 2-4 SU, 1-4-1 ATS in its last six games. Yet the Mercury just clinched a playoff spot by beating Atlanta at home this past Tuesday. This is Phoenix's third game in five days and the team doesn't have a strong bench. It's also a major letdown spot for the Mercury having just fulfilled their goal by earning a postseason berth after going a miserable 9-31 last year.

Yes, the Mercury are better coached this season. But they are not one of the powerhouses of the league. They are 17-17 and their intensity is likely to be down after gaining a playoff spot.

Up until this game, the most Indiana has been favored by is seven points. Now the Fever are laying double-digits and they're doing it on the day they clinched their first playoff spot in eight years.

The Fever clinched a postseason berth because the Sky and Dream were eliminated following losses last night.

Indiana has earned the right to celebrate. So it could be hard for the Fever to have their full concentration and intensity especially being at home.

The Sparks have the worst record in the WNBA at 7-25. They are off an embarrassing blowout home loss to the Dream this past Sunday. But the game before that they upset the Liberty, which owns the best record in the league at 27-6.

So the Sparks are capable. They have covered seven of their last nine road games. They have talent with Dearica Hamby, Rickea Jackson - probably the third-best rookie in the league - and sparkplug veteran Odyssey Sims, who recently signed with them.

The Sparks aren't going to lack motivation off an embarrassing defeat and going against Caitlin Clark.

A late-season matchup between two bad teams headed nowhere. This means a loose, fast tempo, stat-filling game with plenty of points when it's the Mystics against the Wings.

Dallas certainly has been scoring. The Wings are averaging 98.2 points in their last four games. The Wings catch a break here, too, with Washington center Shakira Austin ruled out with an ankle injury.

The Mystics are a below average defensive team. They just surrendered 96 points to Connecticut in their last game this past Saturday.

Washington scored 85 points in that game against the Sun's No. 1 ranked defense that gives up an average of 74.5 points. The Mystics now drop all the way down to face the WNBA's worst defense by far.

The Wings rank last in scoring defense and defensive field goal percentage. They are allowing an average of 90.7 points per game.

The Aces have 10 games to get things turned around. They are 2-5 in their last seven games. The two-time defending WNBA champions offense has been there, but their defense has regressed. It's a problem Aces coach Becky Hammon is well aware of.

Hammon has been trying different combinations, but her bench is not good. I see the Aces increasing their defensive intensity in their first game back from a three-game road trip. Hammon still needs to find the right mix from her reserves. So the Aces' second-stringers, most of whom are deficient offensively, should see their share of minutes here.

Atlanta is a top-five defensive team, but lacking offensively. The Dream are averaging 75.6 points in their last 11 games. This is their third game in five days - all at different locations. So the Dream could have tired legs, which would hurt their scoring.

Note the Dream won't have Tina Charles today. She's out for personal reasons. Charles is the Dream's third-leading scorer at 14.6 points per game and is their top field goal percentage shooter. There's a huge drop in offense from Charles to reserve Nia Coffey.

The Dream does not want to get into an up-tempo game with the Aces. Instead they will slow the pace down and use Coffey and three reserves to aggressively try to guard A'ja Wilson inside.

Yes, it's a big total. But it's totally justified. Las Vegas is the best scoring team in the WNBA ranking first in points, field goal percentage and free throw percentage. Dallas has the worst defense in the league, but has five players averaging in double figures.

The spot is right for a high-scoring game.

The Aces drop way down in defensive class after facing the Sky and Lynx twice in their last three games. Las Vegas won't play again until Friday so coach Becky Hammon is likely to let her starters play big minutes even if the score gets lopsided.

Point guard Chelsea Gray is playing better and with more confidence after missing the first dozen games with a leg injury. Gray is a flashy player, who loves an up-tempo pace.

The Wings just played in a 223-point game against the Sparks this past Sunday, winning 113-110. The Wings have surrendered at least 93 points in nine of their last 12 games. Dallas has allowed an average of 99.5 points in two games against the Aces this season.

Back to full strength, the Dream are making a playoff push. They are 3-1 coming out of the Olympic break with two of the victories coming against the 18-10 Storm and 22-7 Sun. 

Atlanta has a top-five defense and has been especially sharp defensively in its last three games giving up an average of 71.6 points. That's nine points below its season average. 

The Dream go on the road for four consecutive games following this matchup. So this is a crucial game for them. They are the more rested team as the Fever are playing their second road game in three days. 

I rate Caitlin Clark already as one of the 10 best players in the WNBA. But some of her value is negated by the egregious coaching of Christine Sides, the worst coach in the league. Atlanta doesn't have a superstar like Clark. But the Dream have four excellent players in Allisha Gray, Rhyne Howard, Tina Charles and much underrated Jordin Canada. 

Impressive road victory for the Lynx beating the Aces, 98-87, this past Wednesday.

But I'm not ready to write off the two-time defending WNBA champion Aces. Las Vegas is 2 1/2 games behind Minnesota for first place in the Western Conference. So this is a huge game for the Aces and not just for revenge purposes.

The Lynx shot 59.4 percent from the floor, while making 11 of 19 shots from 3-point range in Wednesday's victory. Courtney Williams had a season-high 22 points. She averages 10.5 points.

I don't see a repeat of that. The prideful Aces are healthy. They still have the best offense in the WNBA leading the league in scoring, field goal percentage and free throw percentage. The Aces just need to tighten their defense. They did that earlier in the season in their first meeting at Minnesota beating the Lynx, 80-66.

That was the Aces' third straight victory at Minnesota. All of the victories have been blowouts.

Having lost star rookie center and stalwart defender, Cameron Brink, for the season with a torn ACL, the Sparks' defense has greatly regressed. 

Los Angeles has surrendered an average of 88.9 points in regulation during its last dozen games. Foes have scored a minimum of 81 points in each of these last 12 games.

Connecticut upgraded its offense trading for Marina Mabrey. The Sun now have six players averaging double-digits in scoring. 

The Sun should enter this matchup highly motivated. They are off a road upset loss to Atlanta and haven't played at home since July 14. The Sun won't play again for another three days so their first-string should log major minutes even in a lopsided game. 

The last time the Sun played bad defensive teams they scored 96 points against the Mercury and 109 points vs. the Wings two days ago. 

The Sparks should do their part to keep this total Over. They recently signed spark plug guard Odyssey Sims, who played nine games for Dallas. Sims averaged 17.2 points in those games for the Wings, shot 53.5 percent from the floor and made 16 of 32 3-point shots. The Wings let her go when several of their players returned from the injured list. It was stupid on the Wings' part. 

Sims can mesh well with the Sparks, who have three other good scorers in Dearica Hamby, Rickea Jackson and Azura Stevens, who is rounding into shape having played seven games for LA after missing the beginning of the season. 

Tuesday Free Play

Wings plus 14 1/2 at Liberty

Two main factors why I like the Wings to cover this large road number: The Liberty are in a letdown spot and Dallas should be much improved down the stretch getting back injured Satou Sabally and Maddy Siegrist. 

New York just swept the Sparks and Aces on the West Coast with its, 79-67, victory against Las Vegas this past Saturday being especially sweet revenge for having lost to the Aces in the WNBA Finals last season. 

The Liberty return to the East Coast fat and happy. It's going to be difficult for them to get motivated to take on the 6-20 Wings. Dallas is a terrible defensive team and not well-coached either. 

But the Wings can score. They are averaging 89 points in their last seven games. Sabally is a superstar forward, who had missed the entire season because of injury until finally playing in Dallas' last game this past Sunday following the month-long Olympic break. 

The Wings also have back from injury their fourth-leading scorer, Siegrist. 

Right now the Wings are better than perceived because of Sabally being back on the court. Given the bad situational spot the Liberty are in, this many points should prove enough for a Dallas cover. 

The Fever have covered nine of their last 13 games and are in a great spot to extend their ATS hot streak to 10-4. Indiana catches Phoenix playing without rest after the Mercury rolled past the Sky in Chicago on Thursday night. The Mercury caught a break when Chicago's Chennedy Carter was scratched hours before tip-off because of illness.

Indiana should be well-rested and ready. Not only did the Mercury play last night, but their three best players - Brittney Griner, Diana Taurasi and Kahleah Cooper - all helped the U.S. win the Olympic Gold medal by beating France this past Sunday in Paris.

The Mercury have a short bench. They played only eight despite beating the Sky by 20 points. All of Phoenix's starters logged more than 29 minutes.

The Fever have matched up well to the Mercury. They are 2-0 vs. Phoenix winning, 88-82, at Phoenix on June 30 and defeating the Mercury, 95-86, at home on July 12.

The Sparks could be tougher than perceived down the home stretch now that they have Azura Stevens in their rotation. Dearica Hamby may be the most underrated player in the league and Rickea Jackson is a good-looking rookie forward, who would be getting far more attention if not for other rookies Caitlin Clark and Angel Reese.

But much of this handicap is a fade on the Liberty.

New York's superstars, Breanna Stewart and Sabrina Ionescu, just helped the U.S. win a gold medal in the Paris Olympics this past Sunday. It's hard to imagine Stewart and Ionescu getting nearly as excited about this matchup. They also could be bothered by jet lag.

The Liberty, as a team, might get caught looking ahead of this opponent as their next game is against the two-time defending champion Aces in Las Vegas on Saturday. The Aces beat the Liberty in the Finals last year.

New York has been dreadful as a double-digit favorite covering just once in 12 tries in that role.

Don't be fooled by the Mystics' 6-19 record, which is tied for the worst mark in the WNBA. The Mystics have the best point spread record in the league at 16-8-1 ATS for 67 percent.

The Mystics have accomplished this despite not having their two best players, center Shakira Austin and guard Brittney Sykes. Both are ready to go now following the month-long Olympic break. 

Austin averages 11.7 points and 6.8 rebounds. Sykes is one of the more underrated guards in the league. 

The Lynx entered the break not playing well having lost four of their past seven games. 

Minnesota is a strong defensive team, However, the Lynx are below average offensively. That makes it difficult for them to cover big spreads like this one. They are 1-4 ATS when laying more than seven points. 

There's a player in this Fever-Wings game who is the No. 3 scorer in the WNBA, leads the league in steals per game and is tied for second in averaging the most made 3-pointers per game.

And her name isn't Caitlin Clark. It's Dallas' Arike Ogunbowale.

But it's not because of Ogunbowale that this game is a sellout and being televised nationally by ESPN.

Clark's presence is sure to arouse passion and an all-out effort from the underachieving Wings, who have better talent than their 5-19 record indicates.

Dallas is 2-2 in its last four home games with wins against Atlanta and Minnesota. However, the Wings are off a disappointing home loss to the Sparks in their last game this past Saturday. They have had ample time to rest and prepare for a rare nationally televised sold-out home game.

These are the two-worst defensive teams in the league. Dallas, however, is the better rebounding team with a height advantage on Indiana.

Connecticut is the top defensive team in the WNBA. This is a marquee Eastern Conference matchup between the two teams with the best records in the WNBA.

I get all that. But the total still is too low given all the superstars participating in this matchup, the last WNBA game these teams will play in a month as the league won't resume until mid-August because of the Olympics. I expect these offenses to go out with a bang not a whimper heading into the long pause.

New York is the No. 2 scoring team in the WNBA at 86 points per game. The Liberty also rank No. 1 in field goal percentage. The Liberty is averaging 90.5 points in their last nine home games.

Connecticut hasn't gone up against this high of a scoring offense on the road since June 21 when it played Las Vegas. The Aces scored 85 points on the Sun.

All of the Sun's starters average in double figures. Connecticut just put up 96 points against Phoenix in its last game this past Sunday. Reserve Rachel Banham scored 24 points for the Sun in that game making eight 3-pointers. Banham scoring off the bench is an added bonus for the Sun, which averages 80 points a game.

Even more than the NBA, the WNBA can lend itself to huge situational edges when it comes to betting.

Such as this spot.

Phoenix is playing its third road game in five days. This matchup has an 8:30 a.m. West Coast start time for the Mercury making it more like playing three games in 4 1/2 days. Brittney Griner (hip), 42-year-old Diana Taurasi (leg) and Natasha Cloud (knee) - three of Phoenix's four best players - are all at less than 100 percent.

The Mercury are a .500 team at 12-12. They have star power, but are the third-worst defensive team in the league and second-worst rebounding club despite having the 6-foot-9 Griner.

Washington, devoid of stars, is 6-18. But the Mystics are great at one thing - covering point spreads. They are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games and have the best point spread mark in the league, covering 69 percent of their games.

Given this and the terrible spot for Phoenix, I'm taking the points with Washington.

Minnesota is not going to lack motivation following its worst loss of the season, 91-63, on the road to Seattle this past Friday and facing Caitlin Clark for the first time. The big question is can the Lynx cover this mid-range number knowing they aren't likely to have superstar forward Naphessa Collier for a fourth straight game due to a foot injury?

Yes because of two strong factors - defense and coaching.

The Lynx are 16-7 but they are not an elite team without Collier even though Kayla McBride has stepped up to have an All-Star season. Still, the Lynx are close to two levels better than Indiana.

The difference is defense and coaching, which offsets Clark's superstar talents. Minnesota gives up the second-fewest points per game in the WNBA and also ranks No. 1 in defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense.

The Fever, by contrast, is the second-worst defensive team in the WNBA.

Minnesota also has one of the better coaches in the league, Cheryl Reeves. Indiana has the worst coach, Christie Sides.

The Lynx take great pride in their defense. They rank No. 2 in scoring defense and first in defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense. The Lynx should play with tremendous defensive intensity back home after giving up 91 points to the Storm in Seattle two days ago during their last game. That was 17 points above their defensive average.

Facing Caitlin Clark for the first time is added incentive for the Lynx to clamp down on the Fever.

Indiana is not a good defensive club. But the Fever aren't likely to see Naphessa Collier, the Lynx's leading scorer. Collier is expected to miss her fourth straight game due to a foot injury. Only one other Minnesota player averages more than 12 points.

The Lynx are averaging just 71.5 points during their last six games.

Care to guess which team has the best point spread record in the WNBA? Hint, it's not the Liberty, Sun or Aces, who have a losing ATS mark.

It's the Washington Mystics, who are tied for the second-worst record in the WNBA at 6-17. Deprived of any star power because of injuries and Elena Delle Donne choosing to sit out the season, the Mystics are constantly undervalued by the oddsmaker and marketplace.

But thanks to covering in 11 of their last 13 games, the Mystics now own the top ATS mark in the league covering 68 percent of the time.

Only once in their last 14 games have the Mystics lost by more than 11 points. Las Vegas is playing its third road game in five days. Washington is well-rested having last played on Wednesday.

I have the utmost respect for the Lynx and their coach, Cheryl Reeve. The overachieving Lynx have the third-best record in the WNBA at 16-6.

But the Lynx aren't good enough to beat Seattle on the road without their superstar, forward Napheesa Collier. She's expected to miss her third straight game because of a foot injury. Collier is arguably one of the five best players in the league.

Minnesota is 2-0 since Collier has been out. Those wins, though, were against the Mystics and Sparks, whose combined record is 11-34. Now the Lynx step way up in class and are on the road.

Seattle has a star-studded lineup that has come together to win 13 of its last 18 games. Take away Collier and the Storm will have four of the five best players on the court in Nneka Ogwumike, Jewell Loyd, Skylar Diggins-Smith and Ezi Magbegor.

These teams just played each other last Wednesday. There were 200 points scored in the Mercury's, 104-96, road win.

So why get involved in the Under, especially when Dallas is involved? The Wings have the worst defense in the WNBA and seven of their last eight games have gone Over.

Certainly a fair question.

Let's start with this being the second-largest total on a Wings game this season. It's also a rare afternoon start for a weekday game. That's a plus for the Under because of the unfamiliar setting.

It's the fourth meeting between the two teams. So they certainly know each other.

Examining the 104-96 Phoenix win from a week ago, you'll find unbelievable hot shooting and 57 free throw attempts. The Mercury made 55 percent of their field goal attempts and were 21-of-23 from the foul line for 91 percent. Phoenix shoots 43 percent from the floor on the season, which ranks eighth. Diana Taurasi scored 16 points in that game.

Taurasi will miss her second straight game because of a lower leg injury. Taurasi's absence could mean more minutes for Sophia Cunningham, who is more of a scrapper than a scorer, and little-used Mikiah Herbert Harrigan, who averages 2.2 points a game.

The Wings hit 49 percent of their field goal attempts in last Wednesday's loss to the Mercury and shot 34 free throws. Dallas shoots 44 percent from the floor on the season.

Arike Ogunbowale is Dallas' best player. She takes the majority of the shots and is shooting a career-worst 36.6 percent from the floor, while averaging 20.6 field goal attempts.

Every team in the WNBA has at least one star except one - the Mystics. Maybe that's why the Mystics don't get much respect from the oddsmaker, or the marketplace.

Once again, that's the case with Washington in this matchup against the Fever and Caitlin Clark.

Indiana hasn't been a favorite of more than 5 1/2 points all season. Washington is 10-2 ATS (83%) in its last 12 games.

The Mystics are 5-5 SU in their last 10 games with four of those defeats occurring against upper tier teams - Lynx, Aces twice and Sun in overtime.

Washington has double revenge motivation having lost to the Fever by two and seven points, respectively. The Mystics trailed the Fever by five points with 12 seconds left in that seven-point loss.

The Fever could be in letdown mode, too, off their biggest win of the season upsetting the Liberty at home in their last game.

Note, too, that the Mystics are the superior defensive team. Washington is giving up 83.1 points a game. The Mystics held the Lynx to only 74 points during their last game. That was eight points below the Lynx's season average.

Indiana ranks second-to-last defensively surrendering 87.3 points a game.

The timing and situation is ripe for a flat performance from both teams. Phoenix won't have spark plug Diana Taurasi and also could be without star center Brittney Griner and starting guard Rebecca Allen. Los Angeles is off its game of the year, upsetting the Aces at home, 98-93, this past Friday night. 

The two teams met at Phoenix on June 28. The Mercury shot 51 percent from the floor and won, 92-78. Taurasi scored 20 points while making 7-of-11 shots from the floor and 5-of-8 3-pointers. Griner made 8-of-12 shots from the field. But now Taurasi has been ruled out with a leg injury. Griner is questionable because of personal reasons and Allen is questionable due to lower back pain. 

The Mercury have a short bench. Some of their reserves are horrible shooters. They won't be able to go into a four-guard attack, which they've done before, minus Taurasi and possibly Allen. 

The Sparks are third-from-the-bottom in scoring in the WNBA averaging 79 points. They have averaged a tick lower during their last nine games, producing an average of 78.7 points in regulation. 

Dearica Hamby is the only Sparks player averaging more than 11 points. The Sparks lack a natural go-to scorer. They eat up a lot of clock by frequently passing the ball in a deliberate style offense.

Well-coached Minnesota gives up the second-fewest points in the WNBA. The Lynx also rank second in defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense.

But now Lynx coach Cheryl Reeve will have her team really stressing defense with Naphessa Collier not expected to play because of a foot injury. Collier is the Lynx's leading scorer at 20 points per game and one of the five best players in the league.

Collier's absence will mean more minutes for Dorka Juhasz, a rugged forward who is a much better defensive player than scorer.

Minnesota is averaging just 70 points during its past three games. The Lynx have scored 73 or fewer points five of their past six regular season games.

Washington is the third-lowest scoring team in the WNBA. The Mystics are short-handed without their best guard, Brittney Sykes, and top frontcourt player, Shakira Austin.

Dallas has the worst record in the WNBA at 4-16. The Wings, though, are healthier than Atlanta and play better at home.

The Wings are 2-6 at home. However, their last six home contests have been against strong competition - Mercury twice, Lynx (who they upset as double-digit 'dogs), Sun, Storm and Aces. Those teams are a combined 64-32. The Dream are 7-11.

Atlanta has lost three of its past four away games. The Dream rank last in the league in scoring and shooting percentage.

Making it worse for the Dream are the number of injuries they have. Rhyne Howard, their second-leading scorer, is sidelined with an ankle injury. Aerial Powers is out with a calf injury and point guard Jordin Canada, who had just returned after being all out all season, suffered a broken right finger that will keep her out indefinitely. Canada had started the past two games and was coming off her best performance.

Minnesota hasn't dropped two games in a row all season. I don't expect that to change in this matchup with the Lynx hosting Connecticut.

The Lynx are 9-1 SU, 7-3 ATS at home.

Minnesota has been away from home the past three games. The Lynx won't lack motivation after a road loss to New York in their last game. The Liberty out-hustled Minnesota on the boards.

Connecticut opened 13-1. But the Sun haven't been able to maintain that lofty pace, losing three of their last five games. The Sun are 1-5 ATS in their last six games.

The teams met early in the season in Connecticut. The Sun prevailed by one point in overtime.

Look for the result to be different this time around.

Stephen Nover Free WNBA Play 

Mystics-Aces Over 170 

It was the most excruciating quarter of WNBA basketball I have watched all season.

The game was the Las Vegas Aces at Washington Mystics last Saturday. I had the Over, which got steamed up to close at 174 1/2 points. There were 98 points scored in the first half, a pace for 196 points to be scored.

Final score: Aces 88, Mystics 77. That's a total of 165 points - and a loser for the Over.

What happened?

The Mystics scored just 25 points in the second half and only eight points during the fourth quarter. It was beyond painful to watch because the Mystics had open, short shots. Time after time, though, they chose to pass up these shots by attacking the Aces' star center, 6-foot-4 superstar A'ja Wilson. It was stupidity on full display. The Mystics committed turnover after turnover by overpassing.

I have to believe the Mystics learned a lesson from that. Washington ranks No. 2 in the WNBA in 3-point accuracy. The Aces happen to be last in 3-point defense.

But it's the Aces I'm counting on to make this Over work. Las Vegas leads the league in scoring at 87.8 points. The Aces are 5-0 and averaging 90 points since star point guard Chelsea Gray returned from injury. The Mystics are a below average defensive team.

I find line value, too, on this total with the Over/Under below last Saturday's closing total.

Caitlin Clark returns to Vegas on Tuesday. That's motivation enough for the two-time defending champion Aces. The timing is good for the Aces to bury Clark's Fever team like they did in the first meeting. Las Vegas won that home game, 99-80, on May 25.

The Aces accomplished that blowout victory despite not having star point guard Chelsea Gray.

Gray has been back for four games now after missing the first 12 games of the season. No coincidence the Aces have gone 4-0 while playing their most consistent ball of the season. Gray is off her best game, too, making 8-of-9 shots from the floor in the Aces' 88-77 road win against Washington this past Saturday.

Not only does Indiana catch the Aces playing well, but this marks the end of a five-game road trip for the Fever. The Fever upset Phoenix this past Sunday in a nationally televised game. It was the first time they had beaten an above .500 team all year.

The Mercury are a mid-tier WNBA team. They are a level higher than the Fever, playing at home with major incentive.

That incentive is a rare nationally televised (ESPN) game for the Mercury courtesy of the network's fascination with rookie Caitlin Clark.

Hardened 41-year-old veteran Diana Taurasi, the WNBA's all-time leading scorer, isn't going to let Phoenix get embarrassed by hotshot Clark.

Clark is a generational talent. I already find her the best passer and 3-point shooter in the league. But Clark is going against a double whammy - extremely motivated opponents and the egregious coaching of her head coach, Christie Sides. Clark is rarely put into favorable situations because of Sides' ineffective coaching.

Phoenix is much stronger at home going 7-2. This includes victories against Seattle and New York during the last two weeks. The Fever lost by 12 points to the Storm in their last game this past Thursday.

This marks the Fever's fourth consecutive road game. Phoenix has a winning record. The Fever have yet to beat an above .500 team. Phoenix is 3-0 this month against below .500 teams with the average victory margin being 13.3 points.

Indiana is the worst defensive team in the WNBA giving up 87.9 points per game. The Mercury have the scorers to take advantage with Taurasi, Kahleah Cooper and Brittney Griner.

Normally, my first look is to the Under for early-time start games like this one. But the oddsmaker is too low on this total.

Las Vegas is the No. 2 scoring team in the WNBA at 87.7 points. The Aces' offense is going to get even better as star point guard Chelsea Gray shakes off the rust. This is her fourth game back from injury. Washington has a below-average defense.

The Aces' defense has regressed from last season. Las Vegas is eighth in scoring defense and last in 3-point defense. The Mystics are the second-most accurate 3-point shooting team in the WNBA.

Washington's offense and pace is much different than it was three weeks ago. The Mystics are averaging 86.6 points in regulation during their past eight games. They had not broken the 80-point barrier during their first 10 games.

The Mystics have picked up their tempo. The Aces love to run the floor. They rank first in pace this month. So expect an up-tempo game, important for an Over.

The Sparks have lost six in a row and are dealing with key injuries. Their excellent rookie center, Cameron Brink, is out for the season and rotation guard Lexi Brown will miss the game. 

But laying this many points with the Mercury is a bridge too far. Phoenix is 8-8. Only once have the Mercury beaten an opponent by more than 10 points. 

Los Angeles is well-coached by Curt Miller, who twice has been named WNBA Coach of the Year. The Sparks have had nearly a week to rest and prepare for this game. They've played extremely tough opponents in five of their last six games going against the Liberty twice, Sun, Lynx and Storm. All on the road and in a span of 11 days. Those four teams have a combined record of 53-16. 

The Sparks' defense has gone downhill without Brink, an excellent defensive center. But LA still has Dearica Hamby, one of the better all-around players in the league. Rickea Jackson is one of the top rookies. She's been overshadowed by Caitlin Clark and Angel Reese so you don't hear that much about her. Backup center Li Yueru has been drawing more minutes and displaying potential. 

The Mercury are the second-worst shooting team in the league and rank ninth out of 12 teams defensively. The Mercury also will be hosting Clark and the Fever on Sunday in a rare nationally televised game for them. So this is a look-ahead spot for Phoenix, which isn't good enough to cover this number without playing at a high level. 

The wonderful Caitlin Clark continues to soak publicity. But her team, the Fever, is last in the WNBA defensively and has the worst coach in the league in Christie Sides. 

The Fever haven't defeated an above .500 team all season - and they won't until Sides is gone. 

Seattle added more firepower in the offseason. After a slow start, the Storm have gelled going 9-3 in their last 12 games. They just beat Connecticut, 72-61, in their last game this past Sunday. The Sun are tied for the second-best record in the WNBA at 13-3. 

The Storm aren't just one level above the Fever, but two levels. That should be enough to win by double-digits at home. Seattle's past eight victories have all been by eight or more points. The Storm's average victory margin during this span is 15.2 points.

The Storm buried the Fever, 103-88, when they last played. That was in Indiana on May 30.

The Sky and Fever have become a rivalry because of Angel Reese and Caitlin Clark. There certainly is no love lost between these teams.

The teams have met twice this season: The Fever nipped the Sky, 71-70, on June 1 and won 91-83 last Sunday. Both games were in Indiana. Now the Sky get to host the Fever. I see a Chicago victory here.

Indiana has a four-game win streak. Those victories, though, were against the 3-13 Mystics and twice against the below .500 Dream. The other was against Chicago where the Fever shot 56.5 percent from the floor and attempted five more free throws than the Sky. Chicago shot 40.7 percent from the field.

So I'm not that impressed with Indiana's win streak. The Sky got a much-needed confidence boost in their last game, defeating Dallas this past Thursday. The Sky are an improving team with center Kamilla Cardoso fully back from injury and Reese proving a serious challenge to Clark for rookie-of-the-year honors.

This is going to be an intense game. I don't trust the Fever on the road and I certainly don't trust their coach, Christie Sides, who I regard as probably the worst coach in the WNBA.

I hold no doubt that come the playoffs, the two-time defending champion Aces will be right back as a formidable force, probably the team to beat again.

But the Aces are not at that stage yet. Connecticut and New York are the two best teams in the WNBA right now and Connecticut has the best record at 13-1. The Sun are 5-0 on the road.

Las Vegas should not be this high of a favorite against the Sun. The Aces will be fortunate to win the game straight-up. The Aces are 7-6, including 4-4 at home with home losses to the Mercury, Storm, Lynx and Liberty.

The Aces will get rolling when star point guard Chelsea Gray returns to top form. Gray made her season debut this past Wednesday helping spark the Aces to a 94-83 home win against the Storm. That was a revenge spot for the Aces and the team was pumped to finally get Gray back from her foot injury.

Gray played 15:30. She scored only one point while attempting only two shots. Gray averaged 15.2 points last year. Her minutes likely will go up in this game, but there's plenty of rust. So the timing isn't that good for the Aces to draw this elite opponent right now.

Connecticut is the top defensive team in the league, holding opponents to 70.7 points per game. The Aces have yet to get their defense straightened out allowing 83 or more points during their last five games.

Before going into the statistics, there are two things to take immediate notice of in this Dallas-Chicago matchup.

First, an extreme early start - 9 a.m. West Coast time and 11 a.m. local Chicago time. That's a plus for the Under with the teams not used to playing so early on a weekday.

The second takeaway is the multiple injuries on the Wings. Arike Ogunbowale missed Dallas' last game and is questionable for this one with a sore Achilles. Natasha Howard hasn't played since the opening game and she's doubtful here due to a foot injury. Maddy Siegrist is out with a broken finger. Those are the Wings' top three scorers. Ogunbowale is the Wings' go-to player. She's second in the WNBA in scoring at 24.9 points a game.

Now a look at the statistics. The Wings are the worst 3-point shooting team in the league. The Sky are better on defense than they are on offense. They rank ninth out of 12 teams in scoring, ninth in 3-point shooting percentage, 10th in field goal percentage and last in free throw percentage.

The Liberty-Mercury matchup isn't going to lack star power. Maybe that's why the oddsmaker has set the total too high.

New York has superstars Breanna Stewart, Sabrina Ionescu and Jonquel Jones. But what's overlooked is the Liberty's defense. They give up the third-fewest points per game and are No. 2 in defensive field goal percentage. New York has held its past eight opponents to an average of 75.7 points a game.

The Mercury have big names, too - Brittney Griner, Diana Taurasi and underrated Kahleah Cooper, their best offensive player. Phoenix, though, has improved its porous defense of a year ago thanks to its first-year head coach Nate Tibbetts, who earned a defensive reputation as an assistant coach in the NBA. Tibbetts was an excellent hire.

Phoenix has held five of its last six foes to 80 points or fewer in regulation. The Mercury gave up 78 points to the Storm in their last game, which was five points below Seattle's fourth-highest ranked scoring average.  

New York point guard Courtney Vandersloot is expected to miss the game due to personal reasons. She's No. 2 on the Liberty in assists. Kayla Thornton is likely to pick up Vandersloot's minutes. Thornton is a defensive-oriented player.

Both the Storm and Mercury are improved teams this season. Seattle, though, has the higher ceiling with long-time Sparks star Nneka Ogwumike and Skylar Diggins-Smith joining the Storm this season to go with holdovers Jewell Loyd, the league's top scorer last year, and Ezi Magbegor, one of the better centers in the WNBA.

After a slow start with Diggins-Smith getting the rust off from having sat out last season, the Storm are one of the hottest teams in the league winning eight of their last nine games while going 7-2 ATS. Diggins-Smith is 15-for-29 shooting from the floor in her last two games.

Phoenix is much better than its 9-31 mark of last season. But the Mercury are not in Seattle's class. Phoenix is 3-6 in its last nine games. The Mercury rank fifth offensively, but are third-from-last defensively. They have allowed at least 80 points in 11 of their 13 games.

Pity the poor Mystics. They just got their best all-around player, guard Brittney Sykes, back in their last game against Atlanta. Sparked by Sykes' return, the Mystics beat the Dream, 87-68, for their first win of the season after 12 consecutive losses. However, Sykes suffered a foot injury in the victory and is out indefinitely again after missing eight games.

Shakira Austin is the Mystics' top low-post player and she's out, too, with a hip injury. I don't see the 1-12 Mystics beating the 4-7 Sky minus those two players and in a letdown spot after finally achieving their much-needed first victory of the year. Washington is 0-5 at home.

Chicago is the better team, especially with highly-touted rookie center Kamilla Cardosa back in shape and not limited anymore with a minutes restriction. Cardosa and Angel Reese give the Sky a big front-court edge. Reese is proving to be a tremendous talent in her rookie season with four straight double-doubles. She had a season-high 20 points and 10 rebounds in Chicago's last game, an 83-75 loss to Connecticut, the best team in the WNBA with an 11-1 record. Now the Sky are going from being competitive against the best team to playing the worst team.

The Sky and Mystics met in Washington just eight days ago. The Sky shot just 38 percent from the floor and made only 1-of-14 shots from 3-point range. Yet the Sky still beat the Mystics, 79-71.