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Stephen Nover NFLX Totals Picks

Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
08-25-24	Patriots v. Commanders UNDER 35	Top	10-20	Win	100	18 h 32 m	Show
The Patriots are weak offensively, but can hold their own defensively. New England has allowed just 17 points in its two preseason games. The Commanders aren't likely to risk prize rookie starting QB Jayden Daniels in this final meaningless matchup. Marcus Mariota and Sam Hartman are banged-up. So that likely means a lot of playing time for Jeff Driskel and Trace McSorley. I'm not a fan of either career backup quarterback. The Patriots have yet to decide on who will be their starting quarterback, rookie Drake Maye or placeholder Jacoby Brissett. Neither is likely to see much action especially considering the Patriots have multiple injuries in their offensive line. Expect to see plenty of New England's other reserve quarterbacks, Bailey Zappe and Joe Milton.
08-17-24	Vikings v. Browns OVER 34		27-12	Win	100	14 h 21 m	Show
The Browns weren't sharp in Week 1 of the preseason, losing to the Packers, 23-10, at home. The Vikings found out this week they won't have rookie QB J.J. McCarthy this season. These two factors are keys in believing this total will go Over. McCarthy's absence means Nick Mullens and Jaren Hall are in a battle to back up starter Sam Darnold. Mullens, unlike many NFL second-string QB's, is a gunslinger. He threw for 1,110 yards in three starts during the Vikings' final four games last season. Kevin O'Connell has a sharp offensive mind. He needs to find out now between Mullens and Hall along with who his backup wide receivers are going to be, especially with his No. 2 wideout, Jordan Addison, possibly missing opening week. Browns coach Kevin Stefanski also is an offensive guru. He has decent backup QB's, Tyler Huntley and Dorian Thompson-Robinson, to attack a bad Vikings defense that is thin at cornerback. Minnesota's starting cornerbacks - Byron Murphy Jr. and Akayleb Evans - aren't likely to play. The Vikings already are down three reserve cornerbacks. So look for the Browns to have success throwing the ball.
08-11-24	Cowboys v. Rams UNDER 35.5		12-13	Win	100	16 h 54 m	Show
If you're interested in Trey Lance and Stetson Bennett then the Cowboys-Rams game is for you. Otherwise, be prepared to be bored. Actually, be prepared for boredom anyways unlike you like defensive football. The Cowboys are going to extensively look at Lance. He's set to play nearly the entire game with second-string QB Cooper Rush playing little and Dak Prescott not at all. The Rams are familiar with the Cowboys since the team's held a joint practice Thursday. As for Sean McVay and the Rams we know how they'll approach this game - ultra conservative not showing a thing. That's McVay's preseason style. The Rams averaged 11.3 points in three preseason games last year. Bennett, a fourth-round draft pick two seasons ago, could play the entire game. McVay has a history of not playing his starting skill position players in preseason. Bennett last took a snap in the Rams' final preseason game against Denver last year. Bennett was terrible going 4-for-9 passing for 14 yards and two interceptions. Now he faces a Mike Zimmer-coached Dallas defense. Bennett didn't practice with the Rams following that Denver preseason game as he was placed on the NFL's non-football injury/illness list. So he doesn't even know the system as well as a second-year quarterback should. All this sets up an ugly, this-is-why-I-hate-preseason-football type of game. So I'm on the Under.
08-26-23	Raiders v. Cowboys OVER 38		16-31	Win	100	26 h 28 m	Show
It's no surprise that both of the Raiders' preseason games have gone Over. Las Vegas has scored 34 points in each game beating the 49ers and Rams. There's a possibility the Raiders will give starting QB Jimmy Garoppolo playing time. The key, though, to the Raiders helping this total go Over is rookie QB Aidan O'Connell. He's been fantastic during preseason going 26-for-36 for 304 yards and three TD's with no turnovers. O'Connell came from Purdue where he was well schooled by then Boilermakers coach and passing guru Jeff Brohm. Dallas is giving up an average of 25 points in its two preseason games. The Cowboys are not playing starters. Their defense will be littered with reserves. The Cowboys aren't likely to play their star offensive players. However, Cooper Rush is one of the better QB's and third-stringer Will Grier has a big arm. They are going against a vulnerable Raiders secondary that lacks depth. So I see the Cowboys holding up their end of the scoring.
08-19-23	Bucs v. Jets OVER 36.5	Top	13-6	Loss	-110	17 h 47 m	Show
Most NFL teams have decided on their starting quarterback. Not the Buccaneers. Baker Mayfield is being pressed by Kyle Trask, who has fit in well while operating new Buccaneers' offensive coordinator Dave Canales' style that features a lot of bootlegs and rollouts. Both Mayfield and Trask are going to see plenty of action against the Jets, who don't figure to be playing many of their defensive starters for too long if at all. The two Tampa Bay quarterbacks held their own during joint practices against the Jets this week. So they will be ready. John Wolford isn't bad as far as third-stringers go. So the Buccaneers should produce their share of points. So should the Jets - and this is assuming Aaron Rodgers doesn't play. It's an unexpected, added bonus if he does. Zach Wilson should get the majority of quarterback reps for New York. Wilson has much to prove. Rodgers has helped coach him up to the point where Wilson is effective against second and third-string defenses, which he should find here. The Jets are deep at running back and wide receiver. Veteran third-string QB Tim Boyle also is capable of moving an offense against backups.
08-25-22	Packers v. Chiefs OVER 36	Top	10-17	Loss	-110	19 h 38 m	Show
No Aaron Rodgers here. Understood. The tradeoff is this low total. If Patrick Mahomes plays then it's way too low of a total. Mahomes has played three series in Kansas City's two preseason games. He led the Chiefs to a touchdown in all three drives. Andy Reid hasn't ruled Mahomes out. Mahomes played in the Chiefs' final preseason game last year. He was 8-for-9 for 117 yards and two TD's. The Chiefs beat the Vikings, 28-25, in that game. Kansas City won't play again for 16 days following this game. So I'd be surprised if Reid didn't give Mahomes at least a couple of series. Green Bay's defense has improved. However, it's not at the level where it can stop Mahomes. Even if Mahomes doesn't play, the Chiefs need to establish who their backup QB is, Shane Buechele or Dustin Crum. They also have to get their ground attack going. So I don't see the Chiefs being vanilla here. They have great schemes and methods of attack no matter who is playing. The Packers also have proven vulnerable on special teams. One special teams slip-up can push a total this low to go Over. The Packers should do their part in the scoring department. Jordan Love has much to prove whether Matt LaFleur wants to admit it or not. The Chiefs ranked 29th in sacks last year. Love should get another extended look. Green Bay doesn't have a superstar wide receiver anymore. But the Packers have good receiving depth and loads of competition. That should ensure a lot of passing. Third-string Packers QB Danny Etling has played better than expected. He has mobility with the ability to make a big gain out of a busted play. That's a huge trait especially in preseason where there are more busted plays.
08-18-22	Bears v. Seahawks UNDER 40	Top	27-11	Win	100	23 h 54 m	Show
The Bears' terrible offensive line has been made worse by a cluster injury problem. Bears coach Matt Eberflus can't risk Justin Fields, or any other Chicago offensive starter getting hurt. So the Bears starters are projected to only play one or two series. That means a lot of Trevor Siemian and Nathan Peterman playing with a heavy dose of third-stringers. This isn't a recipe for a lot of Chicago scoring. The Seahawks will be fired up defensively after a terrible tackling game in their preseason opener against the Steelers. Pete Carroll stressed the Seahawks need to clean up their act on defense. Geno Smith appears to have won the Seahawks' starting QB spot. He's been in a battle with Drew Lock, who tested positive for COVID-19 and has been ruled out of this game. Smith is likely to start, but third-string QB Jacob Eason is expected to play most of the game. Don't expect much from Eason. He didn't play against the Steelers last week as Smith and Lock battled it out. Eason has received limited reps in camp. The Seahawks have a bad offensive line and they have multiple wide receiver injuries. Also promising rookie running back Kenneth Walker III is out with a hernia injury.
08-13-22	Panthers v. Washington Commanders OVER 36	Top	23-21	Win	100	284 h 12 m	Show
One of the biggest factors in betting preseason totals is quarterback rotation. The Panthers are one of the few teams with a starting QB battle. They also have a deep QB rotation with Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, P.J. Walker and promising rookie Matt Corral. The Panthers need preseason to get Mayfield up to speed in their system. So the Panthers shouldn't be vanilla like many teams are in preseason, especially in their preseason opener. Carolina also needs to see what Corral can do. These QB's could all shine against a vanilla defense full of scrubs. Washington has one of the better backup QB's in Taylor Heinecke. Sam Howell is an exciting rookie QB, who could fare well playing against backups. Even though it's a preseason game, Commanders coach Ron Rivera could have motivation having coached the Panthers before coming to Washington for nine years from 2011-2019. The combined average total of Week 1 preseason games under Rivera for the past nine times is 41.5 points.
08-29-21	Dolphins v. Bengals UNDER 36.5	Top	29-26	Loss	-110	18 h 10 m	Show
No Tua Tagovailoa. Joe Burrow is going to play. But the Bengals aren't going to do anything to put him in harm's way. Burrow hasn't played since suffering a torn ACL in Week 11 of last season. Burrow probably will play just a series or two and the Bengals won't let him be aggressive. This puts the backup QB's into play. Miami has Jacoby Brissett and Reid Sinnett. Brissett is one of the better backups in the league. But because of that, Miami may give an extended look to Sinnett. Cincinnati's backup QB's are Brandon Allen and Kyle Shurmer. The Bengals are averaging 16 points in their two preseason games. They have not solved their offensive line woes. Neither team wants to show much during this final and meaningless exhibition.
08-27-21	Steelers v. Panthers UNDER 36	Top	9-34	Loss	-110	55 h 12 m	Show
Here's who is not playing: Ben Roethlisberger, Mason Rudolph, Najee Harris and Christian McCaffrey. Here's who is going to be playing: Dwayne Haskins, Josh Dobbs, Will Grier and P.J. Walker. That largely explains why I like the Under. Haskins and Dobbs are battling for the No. 3 QB spot on the Steelers. Neither is any good. Mike Tomlin showed how much he cares about this game by holding out his two top QB's plus his best running back, Harris. The rest of the Steelers' running backs are garbage and Pittsburgh's offensive line is a huge work-in-progress. The Panthers are expected to play a number of defensive starters. Carolina coach Matt Ruhle smartly is going to hold out McCaffrey, who is coming off an injury-plagued 2020 and figures to see nearly all of the Panthers' backfield touches when the regular season begins. Sam Darnold may play a quarter. But I'm not worried about that. Darnold's thrown only two passes in preseason with one of the passes being a throw-away. He's rusty and not in sync with his new team yet. The Steelers have one of the better defenses in the league. Grier and Walker are below average backup QB's.
08-21-21	Jets v. Packers OVER 30.5		23-14	Win	100	5 h 53 m	Show
I understand that the Under has covered in 17 of the first 20 preseason games going into today. But a lot would have to go right for this total to stay Under considering how low it is. The Jets and Packers have been scrimmaging against each other. The Jets' ground game has looked decent. Some of that has to do with the Packers missing their two best run defending linemen. This isn't going to change, though, because the Packers are going to play backups in this game. The Jets have to get their passing game working. So they should be airing the ball out. Zach Wilson should see action. The Jets can risk that knowing the Packers won't be using their defensive starters. Wilson has to get some real game experience. Wilson has multiple decent receivers. The Packers, too, have outstanding receiver depth. The Jets have arguably the worst cornerback depth in the NFL. Third-stringer Kurt Benkert is likely to play most of the game for Green Bay. He has a gunslinger mentality rather than a checkdown mindset. Benkert was close to the late Greg Knapp, the long-time QB coach who recently died in a cycling accident. Benkert got to know Knapp when they both were with the Falcons. It wouldn't surprise me to see Benkert play well in this dedication game to Knapp.
08-14-21	Dolphins v. Bears OVER 34	Top	13-20	Loss	-115	389 h 33 m	Show
Given that there are only three preseason games now and the depth of each team's quarterback rotation, I find this total short at this number. The Dolphins' top two quarterbacks are Tua Tagovailoa and Jacoby Brissett, who is one of the better backups in the league. Miami is anxious to open its attack more and preseason is the right time to work on that. The Bears go three-deep at QB with Andy Dalton, Justin Fields and Nick Foles. This is one of the best QB threesomes in the league. Dalton and Foles are veterans who know how to pick apart backup defenses, while Fields is an exciting talent.
08-13-21	Cowboys v. Cardinals UNDER 40	Top	16-19	Win	100	55 h 46 m	Show
Currently this is the highest total of the Week 1 preseason slate. Yes, these are explosive offenses, but the key pieces aren't going to be seeing much, if any, action. Certainly Dallas isn't risking Dak Prescott for this meaningless exhibition game. The Cowboys managed just three points in last week's Hall of Fame Game against the Steelers. Dallas' backup quarterbacks of Cooper Rush, Garrett Gilbert and Ben DiNucci were a combined 24-for-43 for just 238 yards and an interception. All three of those QB's stink. I don't expect much from them this time around either. Dallas is traveling for the second straight week and its coach, Mike McCarthy, has a history of being extremely vanilla during preseason not wanting to show anything before the real season starts. As for the Cardinals, they are unlikely to give much - if any - playing time to Kyler Murray. Arizona's backup QB's are perennial game-manager Colt McCoy and former South Dakota QB Chris Streveler. The Cowboys went heavy on defense in the draft headed by linebacker Micah Parsons, who looked great against the Steelers. These defensive rookies will be looking to impress against a second and third-string Cardinals offense with jobs on the line.
08-12-21	Washington Football Team v. Patriots OVER 33	Top	13-22	Win	100	394 h 8 m	Show
New this year is having only three weeks of preseason. That's not much game time to find out about backups. So the offenses shouldn't be so vanilla even during Week 1 of preseason. Oddsmakers traditionally set a low total for the first full week of preseason. That's the case in this matchup and I believe it's a mistake. Ryan Fitzpatrick entered Washington's camp as the nominal starter. But Ron Rivera said nothing is guaranteed. He'll want to take a good look at Taylor Heinicke, who was last seen throwing for 306 yards while accounting for two touchdowns in a 31-23 playoff loss to the Buccaneers. Kyle Allen isn't a bad third-string QB, but he may not be 100 percent yet recovering from a broken ankle suffered last season. The Patriots have a strong quarterback rotation with Cam Newton, Mac Jones and veteran Brian Hoyer. I doubt Newton plays, but Bill Belichick didn't invest a first-round pick on Jones to watch him hand off. Hoyer could be very effective matched up against second, third and fourth-string defenders. New England has averaged 28.7 points during its first preseason game the past four times.
08-17-19	Patriots v. Titans OVER 41	Top	22-17	Loss	-108	33 h 11 m	Show
Both teams have strong preseason quarterback rotations and should be looking to air the ball out with their reserve QB's. The Patriots have scored 31 or more points in eight of their last 10 preseason games. The Over is a perfect 9-0 the past nine seasons during New England's second preseason game. Tennessee is 6-0 Over the last six years during Week 2 of the preseason. Brian Hoyer and Jarrett Stidham should put up big numbers for New England in the preseason. Stidham looked impressive going 14-for-24 for 179 yards and a touchdown with no interceptions against the Lions last week. The Titans defeated the Eagles, 27-10, in their opening preseason matchup. Ryan Tannehill and Logan Woodside each threw two TD passes in that contest. The Titans have better depth offensively this season. The Titans will be a running team once the regular season begins. But during preseason they will be throwing a lot with their backup QB's knowing Marcus Mariota is in a contract year.
08-09-19	Vikings v. Saints OVER 37	Top	34-25	Win	100	10 h 21 m	Show
Given the quarterback situation this preseason matchup has a good chance of going Over. New Orleans has Teddy Bridgewater and multi-purpose Taysom Hill backing up Drew Brees. They are two excellent quarterbacks for preseason. The Saints averaged 25.7 points in preseason last year. Bridgewater was extremely popular with the Vikings before he went to New Orleans. The Vikings aren't going to be blitzing him given Bridgewater's injury history. The Vikings need to find a third wide receiver. They are going to be a running team this year. So they won't want to show too much of that in this game. That means they could be passing more than usual. Sean Mannion and Kyle Sloter are decent preseason quarterbacks, too.
08-26-18	Cardinals v. Cowboys UNDER 40.5	Top	27-3	Win	100	34 h 57 m	Show
The Cowboys may have wanted to use this game as their dress rehersal, but offensive line injuries prevent that. Out are All-Pro center Travis Frederick and right guard Zach Martin. Right tackle La'el Collins may miss the game, too, after suffering an injury during Thursday's practice. Without those linemen, Jerry Jones won't risk his top skill position players. So don't expect to see Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott. Key wide receivers Cole Beasley and Tavon Austin aren't expected to play either since they are still dealing with groin injuries. Dallas hasn't solved its tight end woes brought about by the retirement of Jason Witten and backup quarterback Cooper Rush has not played well. Rush is likely to play extended minutes. The Cowboys' third-string quarterback is Mike White. He could see action, too. The Cowboys figure to go vanilla with their priority finding out who is best suited to be their No. 3 running back. So not only is Elliott likely to sit, but so is second-string running back Rod Smith. That means a lot of handoffs from Rush to either Bo Scarbrough or Darius Jackson as they battle for the No. 3 running back role. Rush has thrown just one touchdown pass in preseason. The Cowboys are averaging 17 points in their two preseason games. The Cardinals are giving up an average of just 16 points in their two preseason games under new head coach Steve Wilks, formerly the defensive coordinator for the Panthers. The Cardinals aren't likely to do anything fancy on offense either. They don't want to risk brittle starter Sam Bradford. The Cowboys could mount a fierce outside pass rush with Randy Gregory joining DeMarcus Lawrence. Arizona did want to get a look at rookie Josh Rosen, but the No. 1 draft choice suffered a bruised thumb on his throwing hand in practice this week so he may not play. If Rosen doesn't play that opens up extensive minutes for Mike Glennon, who is one of the worst backup quarterbacks in the NFL. It could also mean time for fourth-string undrafted rookie Charles Kanoff.
08-17-18	Bills v. Browns OVER 38.5	Top	19-17	Loss	-109	85 h 6 m	Show
It's somewhat below-the-radar, but one early preseason story worth noting is potential improvement in the Bills offense thanks to new offensive coordinator Brian Daboll. Buffalo's offense was stale and caveman-like last season when Rick Dennison was the offensive coordinator. Daboll could be the next innovative offensive mind based on his use of formations, designs and personnel groupings to get a stagnant Bills offense, which could have the least talent of any in the NFL, to look sharp during Week 1 of the preseason last week. The Bills defeated the Panthers, 28-23. Nathan Peterman and A.J. McCarron combined for 16-of-20 passing for 235 yards. Rookie Josh Allen displayed his big arm and wasn't afraid to go deep. The Bills piled up 430 total yards. Yes, the Panthers played a vanilla game not showing the Bills anything fancy on defense. But the Bills are one of the few teams in the NFL with a wide open starting quarterback battle. Daboll has to find out who his No. 1 man is going to be so expect the Bills to continue to open up their playbook and attack downfield. Cleveland has two good quarterbacks to use, Tyrod Taylor and Baker Mayfield. Expect Mayfield to continue to see a lot of action. The first overall pick in the draft played well in the Browns' opening preseason victory against the Giants completing 11 of 20 passes for 212 yards and two touchdowns. The Browns are deep in receiving talent and the Bills are weak at linebacker, both starting-wise and depth-wise.
08-10-17	Broncos v. Bears OVER 35.5	Top	24-17	Win	100	27 h 59 m	Show
Both teams have good quarterback rotations for preseason with open competition for the starting spot. That should ensure enough scoring for the final score to go Over this low total. Trevor Siemian has looked good during training camp, feeling much more comfortable operating Denver's offense. He's likley to play 1 1/2 quarters against a weak Chicago secondary. Paxton Lynch then will take over. New Broncos coach Vance Joseph said he'll be using preseason as a way to judge his quarterback competition. Mike Glennon is expected to start for the Bears. He'll see at least a few series as the Bears want to get Glennon up to speed in their system. Glennon has appeared in only two NFL games since 2014. Following Glennon will be veteran Mark Sanchez and rookie Mitchell Trubisky. The Bears are extremely anixous to find out what Trubisky can do. Expect the Bears to be throwing a lot to Kevin White, who they want to get the rust off and find out just how good White is.
08-18-16	Eagles v. Steelers UNDER 40.5	Top	17-0	Win	100	59 h 19 m	Show
Both Philadelphia and Pittsburgh were held to 17 points during its opening preseason games last week. Don't expect either team to improve their scoring in this Week 2 preseason matchup. The Eagles could manage just 17 points despite their opponent, Tampa Bay, turning the ball over five times. Not once did the Eagles launch a scoring drive that wasn't set up by a Buccaneers turnover. Philadelphia netted just 187 yards and 12 first downs. The Eagles' offensive line and wide receivers all looked terrible. The longest reception by an Eagles wideout was 10 yards. The Steelers' high-powered offense is likely to be kept under wraps until the regular season. There's no reason for Mike Tomlin to risk playing Ben Roethlisberger this early in the preseason and backup quarterback Bruce Gradkowski is dealing with a hamstring injury so he's not likely to see action either. This should mean a lot of Landry Jones - and we know how ineffective he is. The Steelers couldn't pick up a single first down until their fourth drive against the Lions last week. It's worth noting, too, that the two teams meet in Week 3 of the regular season. So don't expect either coach to reveal any tricky stuff on offense.
08-12-16	Browns v. Packers UNDER 36.5		11-17	Win	100	16 h 22 m	Show
Don't expect many points from Green Bay. The Packers will be going with a pair of undrafted rookie quarterbacks and are holding out their best offensive linemen. Green Bay does not have good offensive line depth. The Packers do have excellent depth in their defensive backfield, though, and the Browns have a cluster injury problem at wide receiver. Their top three wide receivers are all out.
08-29-15	Philadelphia Eagles v. Green Bay Packers UNDER 49		39-26	Loss	-110	53 h 32 m	Show
This is way too high of a total for a preseason game, especially considering the Packers' injuries on offense. Green Bay will going with third-string rookie Brett Hundley and fourth-stringer Matt Blanchard. The Packers have lost Jordy Nelson and three of their starting offensive linemen are hurt and not expected to play. That means Packers aren't likely to risk Aaron Rodgers for even one series. Packers backup quarterback Scott Tolizen is hurt, too, and not likely to play.
08-23-15	Dallas Cowboys v. San Francisco 49ers UNDER 40	Top	6-23	Win	100	20 h 26 m	Show
Both teams have concerns about the grass surface at Levi's Stadium. The 49ers began resodding the field after a Taylor Swift concert eight days ago. But the field still remains in poor enough condition where the 49ers called off five practices. The Cowboys aren't likely to risk Tony Romo in this setting, especially with the Dallas offensive line expected to be missing four starters. Dallas also will be minus two of its top three wide receivers with Dez Bryant and Cole Beasley sitting and two of its top three tight ends. The Cowboys will be back their top three running backs - Joseph Randle, Darren McFadden and Lance Dunbar - but none are expected to play long. Dallas is not concerning itself with preseason right now. The Cowboys managed only seven points in their opening preseason game against the Chargers last week and aren't likely to score much either here.San Francisco lost a lot of its defensive talent, but remain respectable on that side of the ball. The 49ers' offense, though, has struggled and has yet to show signs of consistency and getting in sync. Given the field conditions, the 49ers are likely, too, to hold out key skill position players, or at least play them very little.
08-20-15	Buffalo Bills v. Cleveland Browns UNDER 40	Top	11-10	Win	100	9 h 54 m	Show
Two struggling offenses here that don't figure to get well. Buffalo has too many running back injuries and the Browns' quarterback rotation remains too weak. Buffalo is going to be without their top FIVE running backs. The runners they have left for tonight aren't expected to even make the team. The Bills also will be without their best receivers as Sammy Watkins, Robert Woods and Percy Harvin aren't expected to play either. The Browns' strength is their defense. Same with the Bills, who have one of the NFL's best defenses. The team's had a joint practice on Wednesday and the Bills held the Browns without a touchdown. Even though it's preseason, the Bills defense will be well prepared for the Browns' weak offense.
08-14-15	Carolina Panthers v. Buffalo Bills OVER 35		25-24	Win	100	5 h 50 m	Show
This is just too low of a total even given the fact that it's the first preseason game for both teams. The Panthers are expected to play Cam Newton and its offensive starers for a quarter. The Panthers have good backup quarterbacks in Derek Anderson and Joe Webb. The Bills will be looking to pass a lot as they have a three-way quarterback battle going between Matt Cassel, Tyrod Taylor and E.J. Manuel. Both Taylor and Webb are excellent athletes who can make plays with their legs.

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