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Stephen Nover NFLX Totals Picks

Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
08-17-19	Patriots v. Titans OVER 41	Top	22-17	Loss	-108	33 h 11 m	Show
Both teams have strong preseason quarterback rotations and should be looking to air the ball out with their reserve QB's. The Patriots have scored 31 or more points in eight of their last 10 preseason games. The Over is a perfect 9-0 the past nine seasons during New England's second preseason game. Tennessee is 6-0 Over the last six years during Week 2 of the preseason. Brian Hoyer and Jarrett Stidham should put up big numbers for New England in the preseason. Stidham looked impressive going 14-for-24 for 179 yards and a touchdown with no interceptions against the Lions last week. The Titans defeated the Eagles, 27-10, in their opening preseason matchup. Ryan Tannehill and Logan Woodside each threw two TD passes in that contest. The Titans have better depth offensively this season. The Titans will be a running team once the regular season begins. But during preseason they will be throwing a lot with their backup QB's knowing Marcus Mariota is in a contract year.
08-09-19	Vikings v. Saints OVER 37	Top	34-25	Win	100	10 h 21 m	Show
Given the quarterback situation this preseason matchup has a good chance of going Over. New Orleans has Teddy Bridgewater and multi-purpose Taysom Hill backing up Drew Brees. They are two excellent quarterbacks for preseason. The Saints averaged 25.7 points in preseason last year. Bridgewater was extremely popular with the Vikings before he went to New Orleans. The Vikings aren't going to be blitzing him given Bridgewater's injury history. The Vikings need to find a third wide receiver. They are going to be a running team this year. So they won't want to show too much of that in this game. That means they could be passing more than usual. Sean Mannion and Kyle Sloter are decent preseason quarterbacks, too.
08-26-18	Cardinals v. Cowboys UNDER 40.5	Top	27-3	Win	100	34 h 57 m	Show
The Cowboys may have wanted to use this game as their dress rehersal, but offensive line injuries prevent that. Out are All-Pro center Travis Frederick and right guard Zach Martin. Right tackle La'el Collins may miss the game, too, after suffering an injury during Thursday's practice. Without those linemen, Jerry Jones won't risk his top skill position players. So don't expect to see Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott. Key wide receivers Cole Beasley and Tavon Austin aren't expected to play either since they are still dealing with groin injuries. Dallas hasn't solved its tight end woes brought about by the retirement of Jason Witten and backup quarterback Cooper Rush has not played well. Rush is likely to play extended minutes. The Cowboys' third-string quarterback is Mike White. He could see action, too. The Cowboys figure to go vanilla with their priority finding out who is best suited to be their No. 3 running back. So not only is Elliott likely to sit, but so is second-string running back Rod Smith. That means a lot of handoffs from Rush to either Bo Scarbrough or Darius Jackson as they battle for the No. 3 running back role. Rush has thrown just one touchdown pass in preseason. The Cowboys are averaging 17 points in their two preseason games. The Cardinals are giving up an average of just 16 points in their two preseason games under new head coach Steve Wilks, formerly the defensive coordinator for the Panthers. The Cardinals aren't likely to do anything fancy on offense either. They don't want to risk brittle starter Sam Bradford. The Cowboys could mount a fierce outside pass rush with Randy Gregory joining DeMarcus Lawrence. Arizona did want to get a look at rookie Josh Rosen, but the No. 1 draft choice suffered a bruised thumb on his throwing hand in practice this week so he may not play. If Rosen doesn't play that opens up extensive minutes for Mike Glennon, who is one of the worst backup quarterbacks in the NFL. It could also mean time for fourth-string undrafted rookie Charles Kanoff.
08-17-18	Bills v. Browns OVER 38.5	Top	19-17	Loss	-109	85 h 6 m	Show
It's somewhat below-the-radar, but one early preseason story worth noting is potential improvement in the Bills offense thanks to new offensive coordinator Brian Daboll. Buffalo's offense was stale and caveman-like last season when Rick Dennison was the offensive coordinator. Daboll could be the next innovative offensive mind based on his use of formations, designs and personnel groupings to get a stagnant Bills offense, which could have the least talent of any in the NFL, to look sharp during Week 1 of the preseason last week. The Bills defeated the Panthers, 28-23. Nathan Peterman and A.J. McCarron combined for 16-of-20 passing for 235 yards. Rookie Josh Allen displayed his big arm and wasn't afraid to go deep. The Bills piled up 430 total yards. Yes, the Panthers played a vanilla game not showing the Bills anything fancy on defense. But the Bills are one of the few teams in the NFL with a wide open starting quarterback battle. Daboll has to find out who his No. 1 man is going to be so expect the Bills to continue to open up their playbook and attack downfield. Cleveland has two good quarterbacks to use, Tyrod Taylor and Baker Mayfield. Expect Mayfield to continue to see a lot of action. The first overall pick in the draft played well in the Browns' opening preseason victory against the Giants completing 11 of 20 passes for 212 yards and two touchdowns. The Browns are deep in receiving talent and the Bills are weak at linebacker, both starting-wise and depth-wise.
08-10-17	Broncos v. Bears OVER 35.5	Top	24-17	Win	100	27 h 59 m	Show
Both teams have good quarterback rotations for preseason with open competition for the starting spot. That should ensure enough scoring for the final score to go Over this low total. Trevor Siemian has looked good during training camp, feeling much more comfortable operating Denver's offense. He's likley to play 1 1/2 quarters against a weak Chicago secondary. Paxton Lynch then will take over. New Broncos coach Vance Joseph said he'll be using preseason as a way to judge his quarterback competition. Mike Glennon is expected to start for the Bears. He'll see at least a few series as the Bears want to get Glennon up to speed in their system. Glennon has appeared in only two NFL games since 2014. Following Glennon will be veteran Mark Sanchez and rookie Mitchell Trubisky. The Bears are extremely anixous to find out what Trubisky can do. Expect the Bears to be throwing a lot to Kevin White, who they want to get the rust off and find out just how good White is.
08-18-16	Eagles v. Steelers UNDER 40.5	Top	17-0	Win	100	59 h 19 m	Show
Both Philadelphia and Pittsburgh were held to 17 points during its opening preseason games last week. Don't expect either team to improve their scoring in this Week 2 preseason matchup. The Eagles could manage just 17 points despite their opponent, Tampa Bay, turning the ball over five times. Not once did the Eagles launch a scoring drive that wasn't set up by a Buccaneers turnover. Philadelphia netted just 187 yards and 12 first downs. The Eagles' offensive line and wide receivers all looked terrible. The longest reception by an Eagles wideout was 10 yards. The Steelers' high-powered offense is likely to be kept under wraps until the regular season. There's no reason for Mike Tomlin to risk playing Ben Roethlisberger this early in the preseason and backup quarterback Bruce Gradkowski is dealing with a hamstring injury so he's not likely to see action either. This should mean a lot of Landry Jones - and we know how ineffective he is. The Steelers couldn't pick up a single first down until their fourth drive against the Lions last week. It's worth noting, too, that the two teams meet in Week 3 of the regular season. So don't expect either coach to reveal any tricky stuff on offense.
08-12-16	Browns v. Packers UNDER 36.5		11-17	Win	100	16 h 22 m	Show
Don't expect many points from Green Bay. The Packers will be going with a pair of undrafted rookie quarterbacks and are holding out their best offensive linemen. Green Bay does not have good offensive line depth. The Packers do have excellent depth in their defensive backfield, though, and the Browns have a cluster injury problem at wide receiver. Their top three wide receivers are all out.
08-29-15	Philadelphia Eagles v. Green Bay Packers UNDER 49		39-26	Loss	-110	53 h 32 m	Show
This is way too high of a total for a preseason game, especially considering the Packers' injuries on offense. Green Bay will going with third-string rookie Brett Hundley and fourth-stringer Matt Blanchard. The Packers have lost Jordy Nelson and three of their starting offensive linemen are hurt and not expected to play. That means Packers aren't likely to risk Aaron Rodgers for even one series. Packers backup quarterback Scott Tolizen is hurt, too, and not likely to play.
08-23-15	Dallas Cowboys v. San Francisco 49ers UNDER 40	Top	6-23	Win	100	20 h 26 m	Show
Both teams have concerns about the grass surface at Levi's Stadium. The 49ers began resodding the field after a Taylor Swift concert eight days ago. But the field still remains in poor enough condition where the 49ers called off five practices. The Cowboys aren't likely to risk Tony Romo in this setting, especially with the Dallas offensive line expected to be missing four starters. Dallas also will be minus two of its top three wide receivers with Dez Bryant and Cole Beasley sitting and two of its top three tight ends. The Cowboys will be back their top three running backs - Joseph Randle, Darren McFadden and Lance Dunbar - but none are expected to play long. Dallas is not concerning itself with preseason right now. The Cowboys managed only seven points in their opening preseason game against the Chargers last week and aren't likely to score much either here.San Francisco lost a lot of its defensive talent, but remain respectable on that side of the ball. The 49ers' offense, though, has struggled and has yet to show signs of consistency and getting in sync. Given the field conditions, the 49ers are likely, too, to hold out key skill position players, or at least play them very little.
08-20-15	Buffalo Bills v. Cleveland Browns UNDER 40	Top	11-10	Win	100	9 h 54 m	Show
Two struggling offenses here that don't figure to get well. Buffalo has too many running back injuries and the Browns' quarterback rotation remains too weak. Buffalo is going to be without their top FIVE running backs. The runners they have left for tonight aren't expected to even make the team. The Bills also will be without their best receivers as Sammy Watkins, Robert Woods and Percy Harvin aren't expected to play either. The Browns' strength is their defense. Same with the Bills, who have one of the NFL's best defenses. The team's had a joint practice on Wednesday and the Bills held the Browns without a touchdown. Even though it's preseason, the Bills defense will be well prepared for the Browns' weak offense.
08-14-15	Carolina Panthers v. Buffalo Bills OVER 35		25-24	Win	100	5 h 50 m	Show
This is just too low of a total even given the fact that it's the first preseason game for both teams. The Panthers are expected to play Cam Newton and its offensive starers for a quarter. The Panthers have good backup quarterbacks in Derek Anderson and Joe Webb. The Bills will be looking to pass a lot as they have a three-way quarterback battle going between Matt Cassel, Tyrod Taylor and E.J. Manuel. Both Taylor and Webb are excellent athletes who can make plays with their legs.

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