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Stephen Nover Football Sides Picks

Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
01-04-20	Titans v. Patriots -4.5	Top	20-13	Loss	-110	28 h 26 m	Show
So what did the Patriots' shocking home loss to the Dolphins in Week 17 mean besides hosting a wild-card game instead of getting a bye? It means line value on New England as I consider this number too short. Look for Tom Brady to step up as the weaknesses on Tennessee's defense - vulnerable to short passes and a banged-up secondary that ranks 24th in pass defense and 27th in quarterback hit rate - suit his strengths and that of the Patriots. Brady can still pick apart defenses that are vulnerable to short passes, which the Titans are. Sony Michel is running better and Julian Edelman is healthier than he has been giving Brady his security blanket. New England has much the superior defense. The Patriots surrendered the fewest points and yards in the NFL. Their run defense has looked good, too, holding opposing running backs to 3.5 yards per carry during the last five games. Derrick Henry and A.J. Brown are Ryan Tannehill's two major weapons. The Patriots can afford to bring their safeties into the box to help on Henry because cornerback Stephon Gilmore has the talent cover Brown one-on-one. Gilmore may have been the best defensive player in the NFL this season. Tannehill is unproven in big games such as this. He has a poor record, too, versus defensive guru Bill Belichk with a 4-7 mark, 11 interceptions and a 60.1 percent completion rate. The Titans also are bucking these monster numbers: The Patriots have covered 68 percent of their last 65 home games, are 7-2 ATS in their last nine playoff games and are 48-22-1 (69 percent) following a loss.
01-03-20	Ohio v. Nevada +8	Top	30-21	Loss	-110	14 h 43 m	Show
Akron and Bowling Green were the two worst teams in the Mid-American Conference this season. Ohio blew both of them out during its last two games. If you discount those two games, though, the Bobcats went 2-8 ATS, including an 0-6 ATS mark when favored. They also failed to cover in the four games they played against other bowl teams. Nevada is undervalued here, too, because while Ohio was blowing out bad opponents the Wolf Pack fell to UNLV as a 6.5-point home favorite in their final regular season game. Nevada is better as a 'dog than favorite. The Wolf Pack defeated Purdue, San Diego State and Fresno State straight-up all as a double-digit 'dog. The Wolf Pack also knows this venue in Idaho and its higher elevation and unique blue field because they play Boise State being in the Mountain West Conference.
01-02-20	Boston College v. Cincinnati -7	Top	6-38	Win	100	30 h 48 m	Show
Boston College was the sixth-best rushing team in the nation. Most of its rushing yards, though, were provided by AJ Dillon, one of the premier running backs in college football. Dillon is turning pro so he's sitting out this game. Dillon led the ACC in rushing with 1,685 yards. That's just one of the Eagles' many problems. BC's coach, Steve Addazio, was fired at the end of the regular season and the Eagles' offensive coordinator, Mike Bajakian, left to take a job at Northwestern. The Eagles lost their starting quarterback, Anthony Brown, to a knee injury and backup QB sophomore David Bailey has been erratic. Cincinnati is far more stable. The Bearcats have a major edge on defense and a balanced offensive attack with quarterback Desmond Ridder healthy again and solid running backs MIchael Warren III and Gerrid Oaks.
12-29-19	49ers v. Seahawks +3.5	Top	26-21	Loss	-110	50 h 49 m	Show
Seattle is far more experienced in big prime time game such as this and owns an eight-game win streak against the 49ers. The Seahawks are banged-up defensively, but are getting some of those players back, including Jadeveon Clowney. The 49ers also have key defensive injuries namely Kwon Alexander, Dee Ford and Jaquiski Tartt. The Seahawks have won a staggering 84 percent of their prime time games under Pete Carroll, including beating the 49ers, 27-24, on the road in a Week 10 Monday night game. The Seahawks have a monster edge at quarterback in a matchup of Russell Wilson versus Jimmy Garoppolo. The Seahawks took care of their injury situation at running back by bringing back Marshawn Lynch. They also have an underrated running back in Travis Homer.
12-29-19	Raiders v. Broncos -3		15-16	Loss	-125	25 h 33 m	Show
Not that the Raiders have any realisticchance for the playoffs, which they will know for sure when the early start time games finish, but they also aren't winning this game even if their morale isn't destroyed by being eliminated. The Broncos have gotten better under first-year coach Vic Fangio and rookie QB Drew Lock, winning three of their last four. Denver has revenge for a 24-16 opening week loss to the Raiders that set a bad tone for the first half of the season. Oakland has been terrible since late November going 1-4 with losses to the Jets, Chiefs, Titans and Jaguars. They have been outscored by 80 points during this span. The weather is expected to be in the 30s, which is bad news for Derek Carr. He's 0-9 the past nine times when playing in temperatures below 50 degrees with a passer rating of 65.9 compared to 94.7 in other games. Running back Josh Jacobs, the Raiders' best skill position player, isn't expected to play either because of a shoulder injury.
12-29-19	Steelers v. Ravens +2		10-28	Win	100	25 h 32 m	Show
Baltimore is going to be resting starters, including Lamar Jackson. But the Ravens still are going to give a strong effort against their long-time hated division rival. Baltimore is riding an 11-game win streak on pace to become the first team in NFL history to average 200 yards both rushing and passing. The Steelers don't have the offense to beat this team on the road. Not with Duck Hodges behind center and missing James Conner and center Maurkice Pouncey. Ravens backup QB, Robert Griffin III, is a much better player than the extremely limited Hodges. Pittsburgh has managed just eight touchdowns on offense during its last seven games. That won't get the job done against a well-coached prideful Ravens team that would rather not enter the playoffs with a loss especially at home where they haven't lost since September.
12-29-19	Packers v. Lions +13.5		23-20	Win	100	21 h 6 m	Show
Green Bay is traveling on a short week after a monster road win on Monday against the Vikings. The Packers simply need to win here not cover a margin. That's what happened in the first meeting when Green Bay was lucky to win at home. The Packers prevailed, 23-22, on a field goal at the gun. Green Bay was the recipient of several gift calls from the officials that aided them in that victory. The Lions will be motivated by revenge and a chance to close the season on a positive note. Having Kerryon Johnson back, their top runner, takes some of the load off David Blough. Green Bay isn't nearly as dominant as its 12-3 record may indicate ranking below average in both yards gained and yards allowed.
12-27-19	Washington State +3 v. Air Force	Top	21-31	Loss	-110	82 h 5 m	Show
You couldn't ask for a bigger contrast in styles with Air Force a top rushing team and Washington State a great passing team. The Cougars led the nation in passing with Anthony Gordon putting up better numbers than any QB, including Joe Burrow. Gordon has a slew of talented wideouts. Air Force is better versus the run than pass. The Falcons are used to running teams in the Mountain West Conference. Their pass defensive numbers look better than what their talent level is since they played Colgate along with heavily ground-oriented Army and Navy. Air Force doesn't have the depth in the secondary to hang with Washington State. The Falcons also lack the necessary strong pass rush. If you discount games against Colorado State and Hawaii, the Falcons only had 13 sacks. Washington State is better stopping the run than the pass. The Cougars have covered 15 of the last 22 times they've been underdogs.
12-27-19	North Carolina v. Temple +5		55-13	Loss	-110	72 h 54 m	Show
I'm far from sold on North Carolina as a favorite here. The Tar Heels struggled to get to six wins to become bowl eligible. They fattened their stats by beating Mercer, 56-7, and defeated only one bowl team - and that was unimpressive Miami. If you discount the Mercer matchup, nine of North Carolina's 11 games were decided by a touchdown or less. Temple checks a lot of boxes for being a feisty bowl 'dog. The Owls should win the battle of the trenches. They have a strong pass rush and North Carolina has a leaky offensive line that permitted more than three sacks per game. Temple went 7-1 when sacking the quarterback at least three times with the lone loss coming to Cincinnati, 15-13, on the road. Both teams have good passing attacks. But Temple has the eighth-most efficient pass defense in the country. The Owls have experience with high-powered passing attacks having played Central Florida and SMU. The Owls certainly have backdoor capabilities if needed with QB Anthony Russo and WR's Jadan Blue and Branden Mack.
12-26-19	Pittsburgh -10.5 v. Eastern Michigan	Top	34-30	Loss	-110	80 h 51 m	Show
Pittsburgh isn't fancy. The Panthers are meat and potatoes. But they should destroy Eastern Michigan being a Power Five team dropping way down in class to play a Mid-American Conference team in the Quick Lane Bowl. The bar is not set high here for the Panthers. Eastern Michigan can't stop the run and is going to have problems keeping the Pitt defense off quarterback Mike Glass III. The Panthers are 5-1 when rushing for more than 100 yards. The Eagles have yielded at least 230 yards on the ground in four of their last five games. Led by Jaylen Twyman, who has 10 1/2 sacks, the Panthers have recorded 49 sacks and 98 tackles for losses. So Pittsburgh should control the trenches. The key is motivation. Will the Panthers get up for this opponent? They certainly should. Panthers coach Pat Narduzzi is 0-3 in bowls games at Pittsburgh. The Panthers were nipped, 14-13, by Stanford in their bowl game last year. The Panthers won't have a better chance than this to get Narduzzi his first bowl win.
12-22-19	Cardinals +10.5 v. Seahawks		27-13	Win	100	66 h 0 m	Show
Should be a great game when the 11-3 49ers meet the 11-3 Seahawks to decide the NFC West Division. Oh wait, that's next week. Seattle can't help but be looking ahead to that crucial matchup. Problem is the Seahawks aren't good enough to cover this high of a number especially in a look-ahead spot. The Seahawks being eight games above .500 doesn't match their statistics and point differential. They have outscored their opponents by just 26 points on the season. Seattle only has 24 sacks, which ranks among the bottom-three. The Seahawks also have half a dozen injuries to key defenders, including underrated free safety Quandre Diggs. He carries a doubtful tag while Seattle's other banged-up defensive players are questionable. The Cardinals are adept offensively. They have scored 25 or more points in seven of their last 10 games. Kyler Murray is a poor man's Russell Wilson. His weapons match the Seahawks especially with Josh Gordon back on suspension and likely done in the NFL, which was a distraction for Seattle this week. The Seahawks have actually played better on the road. They have covered only twice during their last seven home games often overpriced like they are here. Arizona is 8-4-1 ATS as an underdog this season.
12-22-19	Panthers v. Colts -6.5		6-38	Win	100	63 h 34 m	Show
Injuries and close decisions that didn't go their way ruined the Colts' season. But Indy is a well-coached solid team that almost always can be counted on to provide a strong effort under Frank Reich. The Colts are committed to finishing their year strong in an effort to reach .500. Not so with the rudderless Panthers. They are set adrift with Ron Rivera gone after nine seasons and playing the worst run defense in the league allowing an average of 6.3 yards per rush during their last three games. Carolina has surrendered at least three touchdowns in 10 consecutive games. That's the longest streak in the NFL. But what clinches this fade on the Panthers is Carolina's decision to start rookie Will Grier at QB. Grier was brutal during preseason with a 2-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio and taking seven sacks. He couldn't beat out Kyle Allen to back up Cam Newton and then couldn't replace Allen as Allen kept getting worse and worse. Now the Panthers are in what-the-heck mode turning to Grier for this road start. I would be highly surprised if this turned out to be a positive experience for him and Carolina.
12-21-19	Central Michigan v. San Diego State -3.5	Top	11-48	Win	100	64 h 48 m	Show
San Diego State's defense is going to trump Central Michigan's offense. The Aztec's finished in the top five in the nation in run defense, scoring defense and total defense. SDS held foes to 12.8 points a game. No team reached 24 points on the Aztecs, who also held all but three of their 12 opponents to 85 or fewer rushing yards. Central Michigan was stopped by Miami of Ohio, 26-21, in the MAC title game. San Diego State is a much better defensive team than Miami of Ohio. The Chippewas are 0-5 when rushing for fewer than 135 yards. Wyoming was the lone team to rush for more than 135 yards versus SDS. The Aztecs have enough offense to cover this number. The key for them is they don't turn the ball over averaging just 0.6 per game. San Diego State shouldn't lack motivation either coming off an embarrassing 27-0 loss to Ohio, another MAC team, in last year's Frisco Bowl. SDS also lost two years ago to Army in the Armed Forces Bowl so its seniors should have plenty of incentive. The venue - Albuquerque, N.M. - favors SDS, too. Not only is it closer for SDS fans to travel to but it's in high altitude and the Aztecs have experience playing there having met New Mexico two seasons ago.
12-20-19	Buffalo -4.5 v. Charlotte	Top	31-9	Win	100	263 h 29 m	Show
Buffalo holds key edges in the trenches both in running the ball and stopping the run. The Bulls' Jaret Patterson is one of the best backs in the nation. He rushed for 1,626 yards and accounted for 18 TD's. Charlotte has a good RB, too, in Benny LeMay. The Bulls, though, rank fourth in the nation in stopping the run, while the 49ers are 99th in run defense. Charlotte has failed to cover five of the last seven times it has faced a winning opponent. The 49ers won seven games to qualify for their first bowl game. But six of those victories were achieved against weak team and the other win came against Marshall when the Thundering Herd were in a flat spot. The 49ers are 5-13 ATS the past 18 times playing a team outside of Conference USA. Buffalo played in a bowl game last season. So the Bulls have bowl experience. Charlotte doesn't, which is a huge negative.
12-15-19	Patriots -9 v. Bengals	Top	34-13	Win	100	73 h 26 m	Show
Can the Patriots be beaten for a third straight game? Can the Bengals pull this off? You have to be kidding. Go back to 2002. That's the last time the Patriots lost three in a row. The Patriots have covered 71 percent of the time off a loss during the last 17 years under Bill Belichick going 41-17. The Patriots' last two losses have come to the Texans and Chiefs. The Bengals have the worst record in the NFL. New England has feasted on bottom-feeders posting seven victories by at least 14 points. Cincinnati is the second-lowest scoring team in the NFL averaging 15.2 points a game. Not once have the Bengals scored more than 23 points in a game. New England has the top defense in the NFL giving up the fewest yards, points and yards per play. Cincinnati also ranks second-to-last in total defense, last in rushing defense and gives up the most yards per play. Tom Brady is far more effective when his ground attack is working. New England isn't going to lack motivation either. Not only do the Patriots need to win to maintain a high playoff seeding, but there is bad blood after the the Bengals brought up a new "Spygate" mention to the attention of the NFL.
12-08-19	Seahawks v. Rams +1		12-28	Win	100	98 h 3 m	Show
Under the right circumstances, Jared Goff is a good quarterback. This is the right spot for Goff. He's home in California and the Seahawks don't generate a strong pass rush. Goff has the necessary weapons to light up the Seahawks' mediocre secondary with four quality wide receivers and Todd Gurley. The Seahawks are traveling on a short week after getting past the Vikings at home this past Monday. The Rams have covered five of the last seven times they've hosted Seattle.
12-08-19	Colts +3 v. Bucs		35-38	Push	0	91 h 52 m	Show
Better team getting points. That's it in a nutshell. The Colts also are getting back their best running back, Marlon Mack, and perhaps their top wide receiver, T.Y. Hilton. The Buccaneers are error-prone offensively with Jameis Winston remaining a model of inconsistency.The Bucs also rank 30th in scoring defense giving up 28.8 points a game. The Colts are much more solid in the trenches, too. Indy is 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine road games. Tampa Bay is 2-5-1 ATS the past eight times as a favorite, including 1-3 ATS this season
12-08-19	Dolphins v. Jets -5		21-22	Loss	-105	91 h 49 m	Show
The warm-weather Dolphins enter New York's December weather fat and happy having just upset the Eagles at home. This is a huge revenge game for Adam Gase against his former team. The Jets got caught peeking ahead to this matchup losing to the previously winless Bengals last Sunday. Expect a much more focused effort by the Jets in this game. Before getting upset by the Bengals, the Jets had reeled off three consecutive victories scoring 34 points in each of those games. If they hadn't lost to the Bengals, the line would be much higher. Now it's less than a touchdown. The Jets have the top run defense in the league. Their offense has much been better skill position people than Miami and their offensive line has showed improvement during the second half of the season.
12-08-19	Bengals +10 v. Browns		19-27	Win	100	91 h 46 m	Show
Cincinnati is bad. Cleveland is dysfunctional. Bottom line is this is too many points in a division rivalry game, especially considering the Browns are without their top defensive player, elite pass rusher Myles Garrett, and Baker Mayfield may not be 100 percent due to a sore throwing hand. The Bengals are consistently undervalued on the road. They are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 away contests. Cincinnati's confidence gained a huge boost with a victory against the Jets last Sunday. The Bengals can be counted on to give a full effort and their offense is upgraded with Andy Dalton back under center and speedster John Ross off the injured list.
12-07-19	Georgia +7.5 v. LSU	Top	10-37	Loss	-110	23 h 10 m	Show
I don't see where LSU is a touchdown better than Georgia at a neutral site. George has the better defense and is more experienced in big game neutral site games than LSU. The Bulldogs are 8-1 ATS in their last nine neutral site games. The Bulldogs rank No. 2 in the country in scoring defense giving up 10.4 points a game. They haven't surrendered more than 20 points all season! As good as LSU is offensively, Georgia has the better rushing numbers and gives up 2.7 yards per run, while the Tigers yield 3.8 yards a run. When it comes to passing, Georgia allows 9.6 yards per completion compared to LSU's 13 yards per completion. Georgia needs a victory here to reach the College Football Playoffs, while LSU already is in. So more is at stake for the Bulldogs.
12-07-19	Baylor v. Oklahoma -8.5		23-30	Loss	-110	19 h 18 m	Show
Oklahoma was on the road, playing flat and without its best wide receiver, CeeDee Lamb. This was three weeks ago against upstart Baylor in Waco, Texas. Baylor jumped out to a 25-point lead against the Sooners. Yet Oklahoma still managed to pull out a 34-31 victory. Now the teams meet at a neutral site and Lamb is back healthy. The Sooners have loads of big-game, neutral site title game experience. Baylor doesn't I don't see the Bears being able to hang within single digits of the Sooners especially coming off that recent defeat to Oklahoma. I like Baylor QB Charlie Brewer. But he's not in the class of the Sooners' Jalen Hurts, who could be the best dual threat QB in college with his passing and rushing ability.
12-05-19	Cowboys -2.5 v. Bears	Top	24-31	Loss	-130	26 h 17 m	Show
The Cowboys are the more well-rounded team with far better skill position talent than the Bears. Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliot rate major edges on Mitch Trubisky and David Montgomery. The Bears haven't recovered from their London loss to the Raiders. They are 3-5 in their last eight games with their lone victories during this span coming against the Giants and Lions twice. Those teams have a combined record of 5-18. Trubisky has only played well against the Lions. He's been a stiff against every other opponent. Chicago's defense is down from last season and its offense has been hijacked by Trubisky's lack of progress. Chicago's run defense is prey to Elliott likley missing run-stuffing Akiem Hicks and linebacker Danny Trevathan. The Cowboys are the more motivated team. Dallas is that rare team that rates high in both offensive and defensive yards. The Cowboys average the most yards per game in the NFL and they surrender the eighth-fewest yards.
12-01-19	Patriots -3 v. Texans	Top	22-28	Loss	-110	127 h 56 m	Show
The Patriots' defense is putting up numbers not seen since the 2000 Ravens. I don't see the Texans, with their weak offensive line, lack of a ground attack and poor coaching, being able to solve New England's defense. New England is getting better offensively as more offensive linemen and wide receivers get healthy. The Texans have a slow, banged-up secondary and their pass rush took a massive hit with J.J. Watt sidelined for the season. Bill Belichick has had Bill O'Brien's number. The Patriots are 5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS versus the Texans since 2015. Belichick won't be adverse to running up a score, too. There is bad blood between these two teams after the Patriots filed tampering charges after the Texans tried to lure New England's director of player personnel, Nick Caserio, to be their general manager.
12-01-19	Jets v. Bengals +4		6-22	Win	100	120 h 7 m	Show
The Dolphins scored their first win against the Jets. The winless Bengals can do the same. Cincinnati is much better at QB with Andy Dalton back in the starting role. Left tackle Cordy Glenn is back, too, for Cincinnati to shore up the offensive line. It's an added bonus if A.J. Green finally is ready to make his season debut. The Bengals haven't shown any quit holding the Steelers and Raiders to a combined 33 points the past two weeks, covering both games. Their morale should be up, too, with Dalton back under center. The Jets are in a flat spot traveling after beating up Oakland at home last Sunday. The Jets have won three straight - all against weak opponents in the Giants, Redskins and Raiders with two of those victories coming at home. New York is 1-4 on the road with its lone victory being against the Redskins. The Jets have been outscored by 63 points in their away defeats.
11-30-19	UNLV v. Nevada -7	Top	33-30	Loss	-110	27 h 43 m	Show
Nevada Reno is the superior team, is home and in strong revenge mode after blowing a 23-0 lead to UNLV last season in losing, 34-29, in this annual rivalry matchup. The Wolf Pack eased up in that game and it cost them. That won't be the case this season. Nevada coach Jay Norvell has done everything to fire up his team, including bringing in former Nevada coach Chris Ault to speak to the team. The Wolf Pack should enter this matchup with a lot of confidence having just upset San Diego State and Fresno State both on the road during their past two games. UNLV, by contrast, lost by 29 points at Fresno State and lost by three points to San Diego State at home. UNLV is off an emotional victory against San Jose State. That was the final game played at Sam Boyd Stadium and the Rebels were fired-up for it. Now reality sinks in. The Rebels aren't going to a bowl game for a fifth straight year and coach Tony Sanchez has been fired.
11-28-19	Saints -6.5 v. Falcons	Top	26-18	Win	100	23 h 32 m	Show
The Saints have a legitimate claim to being the best team in the NFC. The Falcons are one of the worst. New Orleans has been great against the spread, too, covering seven of its last nine. One of those non-covers was an embarrassing straight-up home loss to Atlanta from three weeks ago. The Saints were two-touchdown favorites in that game. Now they are just a touchdown favorite. Is the Falcons' home field advantage worth that much? Of course not. The Saints won't have the starting left side of their offensive line with Terron Armstead and Andrus Peat out. But that didn't matter last week when Brees was sacked just twice in 41 dropbacks against the Panthers, who have a stronger pass rush than the Falcons. Brees has a very quick release and tremendous weapons. The Falcons have no answer for Michael Thomas, who is on a record-setting receiving pace. Matt Ryan is dealing with a worse offensive line and is down weapons with Mohamed Sanu traded, Austin Hooper out and backup running back Ito Smith also sidelined. The Falcons probably get back Devonta Freeman, but he's had a disappointing season. Ryan still could be dealing with a sore ankle. He's completed just 57.6 percent of his throws for 6.6 yards per attempt with a three-to-five touchdown-to-turnover ratio during his last four games.
11-28-19	Bills v. Cowboys -6.5		26-15	Loss	-109	51 h 23 m	Show
The visiting team has a huge disadvantage playing on Thursday night especially this late in the season. The Cowboys are the better team and given the situational circumstances, I see Dallas winning by more than a touchdown. Don't be fooled by Buffalo's 8-3 record. It's bogus. The Bills have played opponents whose combined record is 19-53. They haven't faced an offense the caliber of Dallas. The Bills rank third versus the pass, but are just average versus the run. That makes them vulnerable to Ezekiel Elliott. He should be in line for a big game, which in turn would make Dak Prescott very effective picking his spots. Prescott has three quality wideouts plus Elliott out of the backfield catching passes. Buffalo lacks explosiveness on offense to keep up. The Cowboys rank in the top-seven in total defense and scoring defense. They are extremely well-coached on the defensive side of the ball. I wouldn't be surprised to see Josh Allen make a lot of mistakes in this matchup.
11-28-19	Bears -2.5 v. Lions	Top	24-20	Win	100	57 h 14 m	Show
The Bears have been a major disappointment this season. But the Lions are in worse shape. Detroit has dropped four in a row. The teams just met three weeks ago and Chicago won, 20-13. The Lions didn't have Matthew Stafford in that game and they won't have him Thursday. The Lions also aren't going to have second-stringer Jeff Driskel either. Driskel hurt his hamstring in the Lions' loss to the Redskins this past Sunday. So the Lions are forced to turn to rookie David Blough. He's never taken an NFL snap. Hopefully, you locked into this game early in the week like I did in anticipation of upward line movement. Even if you didn't, though, this is a kill spot for the Bears. Their defense should overwhelm the overmatched Blough. Chicago's defense ranks fourth in fewest points allowed and in fewest yards allowed. The Lions' defense, by contrast, ranks 29th in total yards and 26th in scoring defense. The Bears surrender 81 fewer yards per game than the Lions and nine fewer points a game. The Bears' biggest problem is Mitchell Trubisky. He plays well, though, against the Lions. Trubisky completed 16 of 23 passes for 173 yards and three touchdowns in the earlier victory against the Lions. Trubisky faced the Lions once last season and passed for 355 yards and three touchdowns in a 34-22 win.
11-25-19	Ravens v. Rams +4	Top	45-6	Loss	-115	10 h 14 m	Show
Lamar Jackson and the Ravens are a hot commodity. The Rams are struggling to make the playoffs at 6-4. The combination makes the Rams a good value play. LA has the defense, coaching smarts and offense to win this game straight-up. Oh, yes, the situation is perfect for them, too. Jared Goff is a quarterback you don't want to touch on the road especially in cold weather. But he and the Rams offense are a different animal at home especially against a defense that doesn't apply that much quarterback heat. Goff has all his receiving weapons back, too, with deep threat Brandin Cooks expected to play. The Rams have four quality wideouts plus Todd Gurley in the backfield. The Rams defense is strong with Jalen Ramsey shoring up the secondary and Aaron Donald having another dominating season in the trenches. Wade Phillips is in the argument for being the top defensive coordinator in the NFL. This is a unit that can control Jackson.
11-24-19	Steelers v. Bengals +7		16-10	Win	100	92 h 7 m	Show
No, I don't like being on the Bengals. But laying this many points on the road with the punchless Steelers is much worse. Pittsburgh has a strong defense, playoff-caliber. But the Steelers aren't going to reach the postseason because Mason Rudolph is a stiff. Rudolph needs weapons and he's not going to have them here. Center Maurkice Pouncey is suspended. JuJu Smith-Schuster, Pitt's No. 1 wideout by far, is injured and won't play. I doubt James Conner, the Steelers' No. 1 runner, plays either. He missed last week and remains banged-up. Even when they had Ben Roethlisberger healthy, the Steelers still were bad on the road. They are 1-6 in their last seven road games, including 1-3 this season. The Steelers have the lowest road scoring percentage of possessions in the NFL. The Bengals should play hard trying to get their first win, being home and facing a much hated division opponent. So taking this many points looms large especially given the low total in this matchup.
11-24-19	Raiders v. Jets +3	Top	3-34	Win	100	92 h 6 m	Show
Jon Gruden has improved the Raiders this season. But he hasn't improved Oakland enough where it can cover as a road favorite in a flat spot like this. The Raiders are traveling cross-country for an early West Coast start time. Up next for Oakland is an AFC West showdown against the Chiefs. Under Gruden, the Raiders have failed to cover in eight of 12 away matchups. The Raiders need to establish a balanced attack. The Jets do one thing extremely well - stop the run ranking No. 1 in the NFL giving up fewer than 80 yards per game. Saquan Barkley managed just one yard on 13 carries against the Jets. That does not bode well for Josh Jacobs. Oakland is vulnerable through the air ranking 27th in pass defense. Sam Darnold has started to play better and has good receiving targets to take advantage. The Jets' strengths match up well to Oakland and New York also is in the superior situational spot.
11-23-19	Washington v. Colorado +14.5	Top	14-20	Win	100	57 h 47 m	Show
This high line might be justified from a Washington point of view if this were last season and if the Huskies cared about this game. But it's not. Washington is down from the past couple of seasons. The Huskies have the third-best defense in the Pac-12. Certainly that's good by ordinary standards, but not by Washington standards. The Huskies had led the Pac-12 in the key defensive categories during the previous four seasons. Colorado has receiving weapons for experienced QB Steven Montez with Laviska Shenault, Tony Brown and K.D. Nixon. Shenault is one of the top wideouts in the nation. The Huskies already have a bowl spot secured with their 6-4 record. They have a look-ahead spot with their traditional season-ending game against Washington State next week. The Buffaloes are in must-win mode if they want to stay alive for a bowl berth. They have played better at home going 3-2 ATS posting straight-up victories against Nebraska and Stanford. Colorado lost by four points to USC as 10 1/2-point home 'dogs.
11-23-19	Texas +6 v. Baylor	Top	10-24	Loss	-110	22 h 21 m	Show
It may take more than a week for Baylor to get over its choke job against Oklahoma. The Sooners rallied from 25 points down to beat the Bears last week ending Baylor's hopes of an unbeaten season. Baylor doesn't even need to win this game to earn a rematch with the Sooners in the Big 12 title game. All the Bears have to do to accomplish that is defeat Kansas in their regular season finale. Texas has had a disappointing season. But the Longhorns still have an outside chance of a conference title plus a strong bowl game if they win their final two regular season games. The Longhorns are at their most dangerous in an underdog role thanks to Tom Herman. He's the premier underdog coach in CFB. Herman coached Houston for two years before going to Texas. The Cougars were 5-0 ATS as 'dogs under Herman. The Longhorns are 10-4 ATS when getting points in three years under Herman. So Herman's combined head coaching record against the spread as an underdog is 15-4 (79 percent)! I like Baylor QB Charlie Brewer. But I like Texas QB Sam Ehlinger even more. Texas has defeated Baylor the past four times the teams have met, including 23-17 last season and 38-7 in Waco two years ago.
11-23-19	Michigan v. Indiana +10		39-14	Loss	-110	49 h 58 m	Show
Michigan's biggest game of its season always is Ohio State. It's one of the top rivalries in the nation and the best one in the Big Ten. The Wolverines host the Buckeyes next week. That puts them in a dangerous look-ahead spot here against Indiana. It's also a Big Ten Conference sandwich spot for the Wolverines as they just whipped their hated in-state rival, Michigan State, at home this past Saturday. The Wolverines are 1-4 ATS the last five years in their previous game before Ohio State, including failing to cover the last three seasons in this spot. Indiana is much improved. The Hoosiers reached the Top 25 for the first time since 1994 before suffering a 34-27 road loss to Penn State last week. Indiana covered that game and is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games. Michigan hasn't beaten Indiana on the road by more than seven points in its last three visits. The Hoosiers are averaging 33.3 points. They have the offense to stay within single digits of the Wolverines at home again especially considering Michigan's negative scheduling dynamics.
11-23-19	BYU v. UMass +40.5		56-24	Win	100	26 h 10 m	Show
BYU just isn't good enough to lay this kind of number especially on the road with an early East Coast start time and being in a letdown spot following four consecutive victories. UMass is one of the worst teams in college football. But the Minutemen are capable of putting up points. They average 28.2 points at home. The Minutemen haven't played a home game in three weeks. This is their final game of the season so an effort should be forthcoming.
11-17-19	Bengals +11.5 v. Raiders		10-17	Win	100	117 h 50 m	Show
I get that the Bengals remain the only winless team in the NFL and that their new QB, Ryan Finley, isn't even as good as Andy Dalton. But the Raiders aren't a team to lay this high of a number. Only once during the Jon Gruden era have the Raiders won a game by more than eight points. Oakland is in a flat spot, too, having narrowly won a huge home division game against the Chargers last week. This is the Raiders' third home game in a row. Finley could prove better now that he's had a start. He's going against the league's 30th-ranked pass defense. The Raiders are down their three best players in the secondary with safety Karl Joseph out with a foot injury. Earlier they lost safety Jonathan Abram to injury and traded cornerback Gareon Conley. It's a huge added bonus if the Bengals finally get the services of star wide receiver A.J. Green and offensive left tackle Cordy Glenn for the first time this season. The Bengals have been money-makers on the road covering in seven of their last nine road contests.
11-17-19	Jets +1.5 v. Redskins		34-17	Win	100	114 h 31 m	Show
The Jets do one thing exceptionally well and that's stop the run. They rank No. 2 in rush defense. The Redskins have become totally reliant on a ground-and-pound approach under interim coach Bill Callahan. That means heavy duty work for 34-year-old Adrian Peterson. This might be a sound approach - if it were 2012. Washington is force-feeding not-ready QB Dwayne Haskins. This reminds me of what the Browns experienced during their winless 2017 season when they kept trotting out overmatched DeShone Kizer at QB. The Jets have the superior skill position players. Sam Darnold is off to a slow start in this his second season. However, he still rates a strong edge on Haskins.
11-16-19	LSU v. Ole Miss +21.5	Top	58-37	Win	100	28 h 53 m	Show
Huge letdown spot here for LSU after the Tigers' great SEC showdown victory over Alabama last week. That effort was both physically and emotionally draining for the Tigers. If you discount its loss to Alabama, Mississippi has lost five games by an average of 6.6 points. The Rebels played both Texas A&M and Auburn close. Mississippi ranks No. 1 in the SEC and 13th nationally in rushing. Rebels freshman QB John Rhys Plumlee is a dual threat. He leads the team in rushing. LSU QB Joe Burrow can't produce points if his offense is on the bench watching Mississippi control clock with its ground attack.
11-16-19	Navy v. Notre Dame -7	Top	20-52	Win	100	23 h 29 m	Show
I'm going to fade the line movement. The marketplace is overthinking this matchup by their heavy play on Navy. Notre Dame has won 16 in a row at home. The Irish have played a tougher schedule than Navy and beat them, 44-22, last season as 21 1/2-point favorites at a neutral site. This is the last ranked regular season opponent Notre Dame faces. So the Irish won't lack motivation. Navy actually has a bigger game on deck with a first-place showdown in the American Athletic Conference West Division playing at home against SMU.
11-11-19	Seahawks +6 v. 49ers	Top	27-24	Win	100	174 h 14 m	Show
Russell Wilson is the best QB in the NFL right now. I want Wilson going for me with this many points on the Monday Night Football center stage. Seattle has covered the last eight times it has been an underdog, including both times this season. The 49ers are the most improved team in the league. But now they have the bullseye and pressure on them to only win, but cover margins, too. They lack Seattle's prime time big-game experience and record. The Seahawks are well-balanced with a respectable ground attack and now three dangerous wide receiving targets for Wilson with Josh Gordon joining Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf. San Francisco suffered an unsung defensive injury with linebacker Kwon Alexander out for the year with a torn pec muscle. Alexander was the 49ers' second-leading tackler. The 49ers also have been missing their starting offensive tackles and star tight end George Kittle is doubtful. Seattle has dominated this series winning 10 of the past 11 meetings going 7-3-1 ATS.
11-10-19	Chiefs v. Titans +6.5		32-35	Win	100	20 h 40 m	Show
I'm taking the underdog Titans fully expecting Patrick Mahomes to play. If Mahomes doesn't, or is limited from his knee injury after being out just two weeks, so much for the better but I'm not counting on that. Instead I'm backing the Titans based on their merit, style of play and situation. The Titans are solid defensively. They've given up the sixth-fewest points per game in the NFL. Kansas City doesn't have an outstanding offensive line. Andy Reid is going to have to be more conservative in Mahomes' first game back from injury. This is a huge game for the Titans. They are two games behind in the AFC South Division and have a bye next week. Ryan Tannehill has been an upgrade on Marcus Mariota. The key, though, is the running of Derrick Henry. He's a powerful inside runner, who has a history of playing his best during November and December. The Chiefs rank 29th versus the run, surrendering 180 or more rushing yards four times this year. The Titans can maintain ball-control because of Henry keeping the Chiefs' high-octane offense off the field.
11-10-19	Falcons +14.5 v. Saints		26-9	Win	100	20 h 31 m	Show
The Saints are 7-1 fat and happy. The Falcons are 1-7 despondent and desperate. It's a division rivalry. The Falcons are off a bye and have Matt Ryan back. That's enough to get me involved taking two touchdowns. Atlanta actually averages more yards per game than New Orleans. Thanks to Ryan, who is having an excellent season, the Falcons lead the NFL in passing. Ryan has dangerous weapons with Julio Jones - who is in the argument for best wideout in the league - Calvin Ridley, Devonta Freeman and tight end Austin Hopper. Only once this season have the Saints won by more than 11 points. This should be a shooout and the Falcons have backdoor capabilities.
11-09-19	Iowa v. Wisconsin -9		22-24	Loss	-105	26 h 9 m	Show
Wisconsin wasn't as good as advertised when it steamrolled its first six opponents by an average of 38 points. But the Badgers aren't as bad as they looked in a 38-7 loss to Ohio State two weeks ago and in letting themselves get upset by Illinois before that game in an obvious look-ahead spot to Ohio State. The Badgers had a much needed bye last week. I see a regrouped Badgers squad taking care of Iowa at home. Wisconsin is 16-5 ATS following a bye. Both teams are tough defensively. The difference is Wisconsin has a stud RB in Jonathan Taylor, who I consider the best RB in the country. Iowa ranks 94th in scoring offense averaging only 24.4 points a game. The Hawkeyes could be minus star offensive lineman Alaric Jackson, too. Wisconsin has won the last three in the series.
11-09-19	Stanford -3 v. Colorado		13-16	Loss	-110	26 h 22 m	Show
Stanford is a much better team now that QB K.J. Costello is back from a thumb injury. The Cardinal have a balanced attack with Costello, who has the skill set to find his second and third targets. Stanford also is in the hunt to become bowl eligible for the 11th consecutive season. The Cardinal can't afford to slip here. I don't they will given Colorado's woes. The Buffaloes entered the season with a great deal of optimism under first-year coach Mel Tucker. That's gone now. The Buffaloes have underachieved offensively scoring 14 or fewer points in three of their last four games and their defense has falled apart due to attriution and injuries. Colorado ranks second-to-last in the Pac-12 in scoring defense allowing 34.4 points.
11-09-19	East Carolina v. SMU -21		51-59	Loss	-108	23 h 14 m	Show
Kill spot for SMU here off a six-point road loss to Memphis. This is the Mustangs' homecoming game and they need a victory to stay in the AAC hunt. East Carolina is a patsy. The Pirates' lone victories were against Gardner-Webb, Old Dominion and William & Mary. The Pirates played extremely hard against Cincinnati last week nearly pulling off an upset before losing, 46-43, as 25-point home 'dogs. That loss eliminated East Carolina from any hope of earning a bowl bid. The Pirates are likely to be deflated and don't have the offense, averaging fewer than 24 points a game, to keep pace with the Mustangs.
11-03-19	Patriots -3 v. Ravens		20-37	Loss	-103	53 h 28 m	Show
Don't overthink this. Just ride New England until proven otherwise. The Patriots have covered 71 percent of their last 65 games! Bill Belichick should enter the Hall of Fame just on that number alone. A lot is being made of the Patriots going up against the most dangerous dual-threat QB in the NFL in second-year man Lamar Jackson. Turn it around, though. Jackson is going up against a Patriots defense that could be Belichick's all-time best. The Patriots are surrendering an NFL-low 7.6 points per game. They rank No. 2 in totals yards and passing yards. New England has intercepted at least one pass in each game and rank first in interceptions and sacks. Oh, yes, the Patriots have won the last 21 times they've gone against a first or second-year QB. John Harbaugh has been tough following a bye. The Ravens, however, haven't been a strong home team failing to cover in their past six home contests.
11-03-19	Bucs +6 v. Seahawks		34-40	Push	0	49 h 15 m	Show
Tampa Bay can pass the ball effectively and stop the run. Those are two key components when taking on the Seahawks. Seattle is heavily run-oriented. The Buccaneers give up just 68.6 yards rushing, best in the NFL. Tampa Bay's pass rush is upgraded, too, with the return of Jason Pierre-Paul. He'll team up with NFC sacks leader Shaq Barrett. Jameis Winston has strong receiving weapons. Seattle ranks 27th in pass defense and has injuries with safeties Tedric Thompson and newly acquired Quandre Diggs out. The Seahawks have only three sacks in their past four games. The Buccaneers have proven dangerous as road 'dogs already knocking off the Panthers and Rams. Seattle has failed to cover the past four times it has been a home favorite, including nearly losing to the Bengals and falling by 14 points to the Ravens two games ago.
11-03-19	Redskins v. Bills -9	Top	9-24	Win	100	47 h 4 m	Show
The Redskins are averaging 8.5 points in their last six games. They may get shut out by a strong and angry Bills defense that is coming off an embarrassing, 31-13, home loss to the Eagles last Sunday. Before that game, the Bills had held five of their first six foes to 17 points or fewer. I see Buffalo's defense rebounding in big fashion against rookie QB Dwayne Haskins, who is in line to make his first NFL start. Jay Gruden was right about Haskins in that the first-year QB isn't nearly ready. Haskins has a 34.5 passer rating with four interceptions in two cameo appearances. The Bills should stack the line to stop ancient Adrian Peterson forcing Haskins to make plays, which I don't see him doing. The Bills are very alive to come up with a pick-six or two. The Bills don't have a good offense. But Josh Allen can make plays with his feet and Buffalo should be operating from outstanding field position. The Bills do own two double-digit victories this season.
11-03-19	Jets -3 v. Dolphins		18-26	Loss	-119	47 h 34 m	Show
The Jets have looked bad lately facing two strong defenses, New England and Jacksonville. Now, though, the Jets are stepping all the way down in class. The Dolphins have the worst personnel in the NFL and they just lost one of their few good players in Pro Bowl cornerback Xavien Howard. The Jets have far more talent than the Dolphins. If there is one team Jets coach Adam Gase does not want to lose to it's his former team the Dolphins. Gase should know the Dolphins - or what is left of them - well having been Miami's head coach the previous three seasons. Miami is home, but on a short week having exerted a mental and physical effort in a Monday night road loss to the Steelers. All of Miami's losses, except the one to the Redskins, have been by double-digits.
11-02-19	UAB +12.5 v. Tennessee		7-30	Loss	-109	43 h 24 m	Show
Look I get that Alabama Birmingham's 6-1 record is deceiving being littered by beating patsies. But I don't think Tennessee is that good with its three-headed QB monster running an offense that ranks 103rd in yards. The Blazers defense is impressive regardless ranking No. 8 in run defense and 11th in points allowed at just 15.7 per game. None of the Blazers' opponents have scored more than 20 points on them. UAB has a balanced attack. QB Tyler Johston III has thrown for 260 or more yards in five of the Blazers' last six games. Tennessee is in a letdown spot after its big win against South Carolina last week. The Volunteers don't have a good track record at home failing to cover in 15 of their last 21 home games. UAB has been a strong money-maker going 25-10-1 ATS in its last 36 games.
11-02-19	Kansas State v. Kansas +6.5	Top	38-10	Loss	-115	55 h 55 m	Show
Kansas is one of the most improved teams in the nation under Les Miles. The Jayhawks have posted upsets of Boston College and Texas Tech while nearly knocking off Texas losing at the gun. The Jayhawks' offense has picked up under offensive coordinator Brent Dearmon with Carter Stanley one of the more underrated QB's in the country. Kansas is ready to spring another upset, this time against arch-rival Kansas State. The Wildcats have dominated this series winning the last 10 times. The Jayhawks hung tough against the Wildcats last season on the road, losing 21-17. Now the Jayhawks are home, vastly improved, riding some confidence and catch the Wildcats in a letdown spot. Kansas State just pulled off a monster upset of Oklahoma last Saturday as a 23 1/2-point home 'dog. This is the Wildcats' first road game in four weeks and only their third road game of the season.
10-31-19	West Virginia v. Baylor -17.5	Top	14-17	Loss	-110	32 h 19 m	Show
This matchup sets up well for Baylor coming off a bye. Baylor is very solid on both sides of the ball and is running hot with seven straight wins. West Virginia is at low ebb losing three in a row, being outscored in those games, 132-59, by Texas, Iowa State and Oklahoma State. Those are all good Big 12 teams. But so is unbeaten 11th-ranked Baylor. The Bears have the third-best scoring offense in the Big 12. The Bears have depth at running back, a receiving threat in Denzel Mims and dual threat quarterback Charlie Brewer knows how to take care of the ball. If you discount the Texas Tech game, Brewer hasn't thrown an interception all season. Brewer will be operating against a depleted West Virginia defense that gives up the most points in the Big 12 and just lost linebacker Josh Chandler to a knee injury.
10-27-19	Packers v. Chiefs +4.5	Top	31-24	Loss	-110	45 h 14 m	Show
OK, Patrick Mahomes isn't going to play. But the Chiefs are far from dead without Mahomes especially as a home 'dog in this price range. We can all agree Arrowhead Stadium is one of the tougher road venues. There should be unanimous agreement, too, that Andy Reid is an elite coach dangerous with extra prep time, which the Chiefs have from playing last Thursday. Veteran Matt Moore is one of the better backups in the league. I respect Moore because he throws downfield where many backups don't have the skill set to do anything except game manage and checkdown. Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill provide Moore with a top-two tight end and perhaps the premier deep threat in the league. This is just Green Bay's second road game in seven weeks. Aaron Rodgers has a career losing road record and isn't expected to have his top wide receiver, injured Davonte Adams.
10-27-19	Broncos v. Colts -4	Top	13-15	Loss	-115	38 h 25 m	Show
If the Broncos thought they could make a successful run with Joe Flacco at quarterback they were sadly delusional. It took a 30-6 home loss to the Chiefs last Thursday to figure that out. Now, at 2-5, the Broncos know they are dead. Only seven teams during the last 40 years have made the postseason after opening 2-5. Emmmanuel Sanders, Denver's best wideout, got traded. Others are likely to follow before Tuesday's trade deadline concludes. Unless Dwayne Haskins becomes the Redskins new first-stringer, Flacco is the worst starting QB in the NFL. And Garett Bolles may be the worst offensive left tackle in the league. It's a lethal combination that sinks the Broncos' popgun offense that has failed to break 16 points in five of their seven games. The Broncos' defense is good, but not great. Certainly it's not nearly strong enough to carry such a putrid offense. The Colts have proven time after time under Frank Reich that they are legitimate. Indy's defense has back it's best playmaker, linebacker Darius Leonard, and top defensive back in free safety Malik Hooker. The Colts are balanced on offense with Jacoby Brissett coming off a confidence-building four-touchdown performance in a 30-23 home win against Houston last Sunday. When you factor in home field advantage and the Colts being without a major weakness, this line comes up short.
10-27-19	Eagles +2.5 v. Bills		31-13	Win	100	37 h 45 m	Show
The records show 5-1 and 3-4. But it's the Bills who are the 5-1 team. Buffalo has a very solid defense. The Bills' offense scares no one, though. Buffalo has built its record by beating the Jets, Giants, Bengals, Titans and Dolphins. Combined record of those teams is 6-27. None of those foes is above .500. The Eagles opened 3-2 before losing consecutive road games to the Vikings and Cowboys. Philly was outmatched in those games. The Eagles won't be here. They also won't lack motivation after a humiliating national TV loss to the Cowboys unlike the Bills, who are fat and happy. Buffalo is heavily run-oriented. Bills second-year QB Josh Allen is turnover-prone. The Eagles have gotten healthier in the secondary and rank seventh in rush defense. They've been tough on every running back except superstar Ezekiel Elliott.
10-27-19	Jets +7.5 v. Jaguars		15-29	Loss	-140	37 h 38 m	Show
The Jets aren't as good as they looked in beating the Cowboys two weeks ago. But they also aren't as befuddled as they looked this past Monday against the Patriots. New York's season stats are skewed because of the three games Luke Falk started. The Jets are much better with Sam Darnold behind center. The only ghost Darnold is going to see is the ghost of departed Jaguars cornerback Jalen Ramsey. Jacksonville's defense isn't as good without Ramsey, their top defensive back, and injured lineman Marcell Dareus. Jacksonville also is banged up at linebacker. Darnold has gone against the Bills, in a game the Jets lost by one point, Cowboys and Patriots. The Jaguars aren't as good as those teams. I fail to see the publicity match the skill set with Jaguars QB Gardner Minshew. He's thrown one TD pass in his last two games while failing to complete even half of his passes in those two games.
10-27-19	Giants +7 v. Lions		26-31	Win	100	37 h 32 m	Show
It seemed for a brief moment that the Lions might be better than mediocre this season. That moment has flickered away. The Lions are who they always have been - poorly coached, bad on defense, unable to run and adept at blowing leads. The Giants need to protect Daniel Jones better, but they don't lack for skill position weapons headed by the electrifying Saquan Barkley. He's in line for a huge game going against a beat-up Lions defense line that has injuries to Damon Harrison, Da'Shawn Hand and Mike Daniels. The Lions also are without their top cornerback, injured Darius Slay, and traded away safety Quandre Diggs. The Lions lack the pass rush to protect their now undermanned secondary. Detroit has yielded 430 or more yards in each of its last three games, the first time the Lions have done that in 11 years. The Lions' largest victory margin this season is three points. The Giants have covered eight of the last 10 times as a road 'dog. New York's defense can key on the pass as the Lions also lost their top running back, Kerryon Johnson.
10-26-19	Arizona State v. UCLA +3.5		32-42	Win	100	32 h 12 m	Show
UCLA is getting better. The Bruins are 2-1-1 ATS in their last four games, including SU road victories against Washington State and Stanford. The Bruins have improved their defense, allowing 366 yards per game during their last three games, and getting better QB play. Star running back Joshua Kelley is healthy again, too. Arizona State has been getting worse. The Sun Devils are coming off a lackluster 21-3 loss to Utah. UCLA has played a tougher schedule than Arizona State. The Sun Devils' early season win against Michigan State doesn't look so impressive now given the Spartans' woes. This has been an extremely tight series. The Sun Devils nipped UCLA, 31-28, last year. The Bruins are better than they were last season. I see them getting revenge at home.
10-26-19	Texas Tech -4.5 v. Kansas		34-37	Loss	-108	32 h 14 m	Show
Kansas is much improved under Les Miles. But the Jayhawks still have a long rebuild and this spot sets up great for Texas Tech. The Red Raiders are coming off a tough 34-24 home loss to Iowa State. They can't afford a loss to Kansas in their quest to make a bowl game. The Red Raiders have plenty of firepower and should give the Jayhawks their best effort. Kansas, on the other hand, is in a letdown spot after nearly upsetting Texas in one of its best performances of the past few years. The Jayhawks had rallied several times to lead, but lost on a field goal at the gun, 50-48. Kansas played its guts out and it's going to be difficult for the Jayhaws to match that performance physically and emotionally. Texas Tech has dominated this series winning the past nine times while going 7-2 ATS. The Red Raiders' average win in this span has been by 24 points. Texas Tech has defeated Kansas by an average of 38 points during the last three years. The gap has narrowed. But not enough and the situation lays out well for the Red Raiders.
10-26-19	Auburn +11 v. LSU		20-23	Win	100	28 h 34 m	Show
LSU hasn't faced a defense nearly this good all season. Auburn gives up just 17.1 points per game. That ranks 16th in the nation. Auburn also is 11th in run defense with its NFL-caliber defensive line. Auburn freshman QB Bo Nix is getting better. He's surrounded by strong pieces. LSU plays Alabama in its next game. So the Tigers have to guard against getting ahead of themselves. Not so with Auburn, which needs this game to keep in contention to win the Western Division portion of the SEC. Auburn has covered seven of its last eight games. This should be a highly competitive game just like the past three, which were decided by 1, 4 and 5 points.
10-26-19	Illinois v. Purdue -9.5	Top	24-6	Loss	-106	41 h 45 m	Show
Congrats to Illinois on pulling off the season's biggest upset with its 24-23 home victory against sixth-ranked Wisconsin last Saturday. The Illini were 28 1/2-point underdogs. It was the first time Illinois had defeated a ranked team in eight years. I'm not a fan of Illinois coach Lovie Smith, though, and I don't see the Illini being ready to go on the road to take on a frustrated Purdue team that has dominated them recently. This is the mother of all letdown spots for Illinois. Purdue has lost its quarterback, Elijah Sindelar, and star wide receiver Rondale Moore to injuries. However, backup QB Jack Plummer is showing steady improvement, the Boilermakers still have good receiving depth - including an excellent pass-catching tight end in Brycen Hopkins - and an edge in coaching with Jeff Brohm. Illinois could be missing its leading pass receiver, Ricky Smalling, and defensive end Oluwole Betiku, who ranks among the nation leaders in sacks. Both were injured against Wisconsin. The Boilermakers have beaten the Illini each of the last three years, including 46-7 on the road last season and 29-10 two years ago.
10-24-19	SMU v. Houston +14.5	Top	34-31	Win	100	18 h 24 m	Show
These are heady times for SMU. The Mustangs are 7-0 for the first time in 37 years and ranked 16th in the AP's Top 25 poll. That's the highest the Mustangs have been rated since 1985. The combination of that and the perception that Houston is a dead team after losing outright as 21-point road favorites to lowly Connecticut last week push this line to the two-touchdown mark. I'm stepping in at this point. Houston still has bowl aspirations. The Cougars also should get back QB Clayton Tune. He's a big upgrade on third-stringer Logan Holgorsen, who was behind center against Connecticut. Tune didn't play in that huge upset because of a hamstring injury. He is practicing this week and expected to play. The Cougars rank 22nd in rushing. They have the capability to play ball control preventing SMU's high octane offense from taking the field. This also is a big in-state rivalry and has recruting ramifications. The Cougars have revenge motivation, too. They were ranked 17th in the country when SMU beat them last season as 14-point home 'dogs.
10-21-19	Patriots v. Jets +10.5	Top	33-0	Loss	-130	121 h 7 m	Show
The Jets are a much different - and better - team with Sam Darnold at QB. They should be mentally ready to take on the Patriots off a confidence-building home victory against the Cowboys last week. Statistically speaking, the Patriots have the best defense in the NFL. Darnold has weapons, though, with Le'Veon Bell, deep threat Robbie Anderson and much underrated slot man Jamison Crowder. The Patriots' offense hasn't been that sharp. This has largely gone unnoticed because their defense has been so good and because of an easy schedule. New England, however, is banged up at wide receiver, deficient at tight end and weak at the offensive tackle spots. The Jets should be up for this game more than any other matchup all season being against their most hated division rival and at home on Monday night.
10-20-19	Eagles +3 v. Cowboys		10-37	Loss	-114	97 h 9 m	Show
Why the Eagles? Better team getting points especially with Dallas not playing well losing to the Jets and Packers, who scored the first 24 points in that game. The Cowboys are dealing with key injuries. Both of Dallas' starting offensive tackles have been out the last couple of weeks. The Cowboys rely on Ezekiel Elliott to produce yardage on the ground, but the Eagles rank second in run defense. Dak Prescott isn't that effective in the air without his top wideout, Amari Cooper, who isn't expected to play. The Cowboys also could be minus their top cornerback, Byron Jones. He's dealing with a hamstring injury. The Eagles, on the other hand, are getting healthier as several of their cornerbacks could play after being out. This has been a road series with the visitor covering 11 of the last 15 times.
10-20-19	Saints v. Bears -3		36-25	Loss	-120	93 h 15 m	Show
I want the Bears going for me at home having had two weeks to stew about their embarrassing loss to the Raiders in London. The Saints are overdue for a loss. They are 5-1 with an average winning margin of 4.8 points. They have outscored their opponents by just six points in six games. Teddy Bridgewater is a game manager. He needs weapons. Unfortunately for New Orleans, Alvin Kamara is dealing with an ankle injury that may cause him to miss this game if not limit his effectiveness. The Bears are in the argument for having the best defense in football. This also is an off-surface for the Saints, who play on turf indoors not outdoors on grass.
10-20-19	Raiders v. Packers -5		24-42	Win	100	90 h 47 m	Show
Kudos to the Raiders for maybe putting forth their best effort ever under Jon Gruden in upsetting the Bears two weeks ago in London. But I'm not sold on Oakland especially when playing away from home, which they will be doing for the fourth straight time. The Raiders are 3-8 SU, 4-7 ATS when not playing in Oakland under Gruden. It's easy to remember the Raiders' stirring performance across the pond. But earlier they were smashed, 34-14, by the Vikings on the road. Green Bay defeated the Vikings at home earlier this season. This is an early start time, too, for the Raiders. They are 1-6 SU and ATS the past seven times when playing at 10 a.m. PDT. All of those losses have been by at least seven points. Aaron Rodgers doesn't need Davante Adams to beat Oakland. Obviously it's a nice plus if Adams is over his toe injury that has caused him to miss the last two games. Rodgers, though, is an elite QB with a monster edge on Derek Carr, who is far more of a dink-and-dunker than gunslinger and lacks receiving weapons. Green Bay's defense is one of the most improved units in football ranking ninth in fewest points allowed. The Raiders average less than two sacks per game, are penalty prone and give up nearly 25 points a game.
10-20-19	Cardinals v. Giants -3	Top	27-21	Loss	-100	90 h 46 m	Show
The Giants are home, have a huge scheduling advantage and get back Saquan Barkley and Evan Engram. Barkley is a top-three running back and I rate Engram as a top-five tight end. The Cardinals have a porous defense ranking among the bottom-four in several key statistical categories, including yards allowed, points and pass defense. The return of cornerback Patrick Peterson from suspension is a plus for the Cardinals, but doesn't move the needle nearly enough. The Cardinals are coming off a 34-33 home victory against the Falcons. The Cardinals achieved the victory when normally reliable veteran Matt Bryant missed an extra point after the Falcons scored a touchdown with less than two minutes left. The Cardinals nipped the Bengals at the gun on a field gun two weeks ago. The Falcons and Bengals are a combined 1-11. The spread would be much higher here if the Cardinals held a 0-5-1 mark instead of a far more respectable 2-3-1 record. This also is Arizona's longest trip of the season and it's at an early West Coast start time. The Cardinals are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 Eastern Standard Time games. The Giants are on extra rest having played last Thursday.
10-20-19	Jaguars -4 v. Bengals		27-17	Win	100	9 h 18 m	Show
If the NFL draft were to take place today it would not be the Miami Dolphins picking first. Instead it would be the Bengals because they have the worst record in the NFL at 0-6. The Bengals aren't tanking, but they are as bad as Miami. Cincinnati ranks last in rushing and last in stopping the run. On top of this, the Bengals have cluster injury situations in their offensive line and secondary with both starting cornerbacks out. A.J. Green, their best wideout, remains sidelined. Some regard the Saints as the best team in the NFC. Yet the Jaguars were nearly a field goal favorite against New Orleans last week. The Jaguars are slightly more than a field goal favorite against the Bengals. Doesn't make sense. Yes, the Jaguars were home against the Saints. Cincinnati, though, has a minimal home field edge. The Jaguars have an above average defense. That's without star cornerback Jalen Ramsey, who missed the past three games. Ramsey getting traded could help the Jaguars' morale. He certainly won't be a distraction anymore. Jacksonville needs this game being two games out of first in the wide open AFC South Division. In their last five games, the Jaguars have defeated the Broncos and Titans while losing on the road to the Texans by one point and by seven to the Panthers. Jacksonville fell to the Saints by seven points at home last Sunday. The Jaguars are at their best when Leonard Fournette is gashing defenses. Fournette is having his best season averaging 5.1 yards a carry and ranking No. 2 in the AFC in rushing. The Bengals have allowed half of their opponents to rush for at least 250 yards. An effective Fournette sets up Gardner Minshew's play action passes. On top of all their injuries, the Bengals' defense carries a high fatigue rating. They were on the field for nearly 40 minutes and more than 80 snaps against the Ravens last week.
10-19-19	Kansas +21.5 v. Texas	Top	48-50	Win	100	32 h 50 m	Show
This line might make sense - it it were last year. Les Miles has made Kansas far more respectable. But even before Miles came on board the Jayhawks have given Texas trouble. The Longhorns defeated the Jayhawks, 24-17, last year failing to cover as 15 1/2-point road favorites. Texas beat Kansas by 15 points at home two seasons ago failing to cover as 32-point favorites and three years ago the Jayhawks stunned the Longhorns, 24-21, as 23 1/2-point home 'dogs. Kansas had a bye last week. The Jayhawks draw the Longhorns after Texas just had its annual Red River Shootout against arch-rival Oklahoma. The Longhorns are at TCU next week. So the spot clearly favors Kansas. Sam Ehlinger is one of the best QB's in the country. But I see the Jayhawks having the weapons to hang with Texas especially since the Longhorns have multiple defensive injuries. The Longhorns are giving up 453.3 yards per game, which ranks 111th. They have permitted an average of 31.6 points in their three Big 12 games. Kansas senior QB Carter Stanley ranks among the top 10 QB's statistically in Kansas history. He should be helped by a switch in offensive coordinators that has a more aggressive approach. Stanley has a pair of capable WR's in Andrew Parchment and Stephon Robinson Jr. plus one of the best running backs in the conference, Pooka Williams.
10-19-19	Central Michigan -10.5 v. Bowling Green		38-20	Win	100	26 h 51 m	Show
Central Michigan is playing its best ball with consecutive blowout victories against Eastern Michigan and New Mexico State. New Mexico State is a very bad team. So is Bowling Green. Don't look for the Chippewas to overlook Bowling Green, though. Not after the Falcons stunned Toldeo at home last Saturday winning 20-7 as 26 1/2-point 'dogs. That game was a total exception. Bowling Green is terrible on both sides of the ball. The Falcons had allowed four of their previous six opponents to score 35 or more points. They are 4-18 ATS in their last 22 home games. Bowling Green also is 1-6 ATS following a victory. Bowling Green had not beaten Toldeo, a rivalry matchup, since 2009. The Falcons' defense is weak especially against the run. Central Michigan has a balanced offense averaging 32.3 points. The Chippewas rank 51th in rushing while Bowling Green rates 111th in run defense yielding 208 yards on the ground per game. The Falcons also are 127th in scoring averaging a meager 15.5 points. Central Michigan has covered four of the last five times versus below .500 opponents.
10-19-19	Florida -4.5 v. South Carolina		38-27	Win	100	24 h 8 m	Show
You can't hold it against South Carolina if the Gamecocks suffer a letdown here against a strong Florida team. South Carolina is coming off a monster upset of then third-ranked Georgia, 20-17, in double overtime last week. The Gators are looking to rebound following a 42-28 loss to third-ranked LSU. Florida had won 10 in a row until falling to the Tigers.The Gators still have a shot to reach the SEC title game, but they need to win here. Kyle Trask is playing better at QB and the Gators own the superior defense in this matchup. Florida was leading the nation in sacks until last week.
10-19-19	NC State v. Boston College +3.5		24-45	Win	100	24 h 1 m	Show
Boston College is 3-3, but 4-2 ATS, including 3-0 ATS as an underdog. The Eagles were idle last week. That has given more time to new QB Dennis Grosel, who replaces injured Anthony Brown. Grosel looked good in the Eagles' 41-39 road loss to Louisville two weeks ago when Brown was injured. NC State loves to blitz. The Eagles, however, have allowed just three sacks. The Wolfpack also are using a backup QB, Bailey Hockman. I prefer Grosel especially since he's backed by star RB AJ Dillon, who leads the ACC in rushing. NC State has failed to cover in its last four road games. The Wolfpacks are 1-5-1 ATS in their seven visits to BC.
10-13-19	49ers v. Rams -3	Top	20-7	Loss	-120	54 h 28 m	Show
The Rams are feeling heat from the Seahawks and 49ers having lost two in a row. So this becomes a crucial game. Sean McVay is the best coach in the NFC. Jared Goff has a history of playing much better at home. The 49ers are not used to taking on opponents who are extremely motivated to play them - until now. San Francisco is much improved as its 4-0 record attests. But do note those victories have come against the Buccaneers, Bengals, Steelers and Browns. The combined record of those teams is 5-15. LA is on extra rest having played last Thursday. The Rams are 7-1 ATS when having a rest advantage under McVay. The 49ers, on the other hand, are on a short week coming off a great Monday night home win against the Browns. Lost in the glare of the 49ers' dismantling of the Browns, though, was two key injuries - fullback Kyle Juszcyk and offensive right tackle Mike McGlinchey. Both are out long-term. Juszcyk may be the best fullback in the league. Compounding McGlinchey's injury is San Francisco already is minus star offensive left tackle Joe Staley. Aaron Donald should be in for a monster game. The Rams' defense isn't as down as some may perceive. LA's offense has been turning the ball over, which has put its defense in difficult field position. Jimmy Garoppolo doesn't have that much starting QB experience. He's going to face a heavy pass rush without his starting tackles. I don't see him keeping up with a high caliber Rams offense that should be well-designed with nine days to prepare under QB guru McVay. Todd Gurley may not play, but the Rams have two other good running backs. One of the keys to McVay's success has been a 10-3 division record. The 49ers are 2-10 against NFC West foes under Kyle Shanahan.
10-13-19	Bengals +12.5 v. Ravens	Top	17-23	Win	100	96 h 45 m	Show
As bad as the Bengals are, the Ravens aren't nearly good enough to lay this big of a number in a division matchup. The Ravens' defense has surrendered 96 points in its last three games. They rank 29th in pass defense and are down several key members in their secondary, including Jimmy Smith and Tony Jefferson. It's become obvious how much Baltimore misses former defensive stalwarts Terrell Suggs and C.J. Mosley, both of whom departed via free agency. The Bengals have proven to be a feisty underdog covering five of the past six times in that role. They nearly beat Seattle and Buffalo straight-up on the road this season. Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS during its last five visits to Baltimore. The Ravens have failed to cover in their last five games and are 1-6 ATS the past seven times they have been favored. Their heavy reliance on running the ball makes them an especially poor choice to lay double-digits.
10-13-19	Eagles v. Vikings -3		20-38	Win	100	95 h 23 m	Show
The Vikings are healthier and a better team than the Eagles right now. I also believe the Vikings' strong home field is worth more than the standard three points. So this line is short. Minnesota is 15-5 SU and ATS the last 20 times when laying five points or less at home. Kirk Cousins does his best work against bad teams and crippled secondaries. The Eagles have a cluster injury problem in their secondary. Cousins has a strong history versus Philadelphia, too, with a 101.2 career passer rating that includes 17 TD passes in eight games. The Eagles have to respect Dalvin Cook. So the Vikings are balanced and should have no problem moving the ball. Not so with the Eagles. Carson Wentz hasn't been sharp so far this season and he's squaring off on the road against an elite defense.
10-12-19	BYU -4 v. South Florida		23-27	Loss	-110	21 h 53 m	Show
If BYU wants to have a realistic bowl shot it can't stumble here. The Cougars have lost consecutive games to Washington and Toledo on the road. There is no shame in losing to those two teams especially drawing the Rockets in Toledo. There would be tremendous shame, though, if the Cougars were to get upset by South Florida. I don't see that happening, though, even with BYU starting QB Zach Wilson out with a broken thumb. The Cougars had a needed bye last week. Redshirt freshman QB Jaren Hall should be prepared. He's facing a Bulls squad that yields nearly 30 points a game ranking 93rd in scoring defense. BYU is bigger and has the more mature athletes. The Cougars have proven themselves with victories against Southern Cal and Tennessee. This has become a crucial game for the Cougars so their concentration, level of urgency and motivation should be there.
10-11-19	Virginia +2.5 v. Miami-FL	Top	9-17	Loss	-110	32 h 60 m	Show
Give me Virgina, the superior team that is on extra rest and taking points here. The Cavaliers have had two weeks to stew about their last game, a disappointing 35-20 loss to 10th-ranked Notre Dame. Virginia has an excellent dual threat QB in Bryce Perkins and a strong defense that ranks second in sacks with 24 and is 10th in total defense. I like Virginia coach Bronco Mendenhall especially with extra prep time. Miami is on short rest having played last Saturday. The Hurricanes exerted a lot of energy in a valiant comeback from a four-touchdown deficit to lose, 42-35, to Virginia Tech. If you discount their game against non Division I opponent Bethune Cookman, the Hurricanes have been outscored on the season. The Hurricanes will be starting redshirt sophomore QB N'Kosi Perry. It's his first start for Miami this season. The Cavaliers defeated a better Miami team last season, 16-13, at home. The Hurricanes are 2-9 ATS against opponents with a winning record. Virginia has covered in its last four visits to Miami.
10-07-19	Browns +4 v. 49ers	Top	3-31	Loss	-115	118 h 47 m	Show
Burying the Ravens on the road last Sunday was huge for the Browns. Both from a confidence standpoint and also to reinforce their high talent level. Cleveland achieved that victory despite missing its starting cornerbacks, Denzel Ward and Greedy Williams. Both could return here. The 49ers can't match the Browns' skill position talent of Bakery Mayfield, Odell Beckham Jr., Jarvis Landry and Nick Chubb. Cleveland's offensive line has been a weak spot. But the 49ers are minus their top offensive lineman with left tackle Joe Staley out with a leg injury. Myles Garrett, who is in the argument for being the best pass rusher in the AFC, could be in line for a huge game. The 49ers are just 7-17 ATS in their last 24 home games since making the move to Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara. They haven't covered as home chalk in five years. I respect Kyle Shanahan. I think the 49ers are much improved. But they are not a playoff contender. Cleveland is. The Browns are the superior team catching points. The 49ers have a weak home field. So getting points is a nice bonus.
10-06-19	Bears -4 v. Raiders	Top	21-24	Loss	-110	141 h 45 m	Show
The Raiders are 2-8 in their road games under Jon Gruden. They have been outscored by 130 points in those games. Statistically, the Patriots have the best defense in the NFL. But considering the caliber of opponents the Patriots have played compared to the Bears, I would go with the Bears being the No. 1 defensive team. I can't see the Raiders putting up many points here even if the Bears are minus Roquan Smith and Akiem Hicks. Khalil Mack is sure to be fired-up playing against his former team. I actually like the Bears' offense more with Chase Daniel at QB instead of Mitch Trubisky. Daniel is the more polished, experienced and accurate passer. He doesn't have to do anything fancy just play with in his means for the Bears to roll past the Raiders. Minnesota buried the Raiders, 34-14, at home two weeks ago. The Bears just got done defeating the Vikings. This marks Oakland's third straight away contest. The game is being played in London, but time-wise it comes out to be a morning game for the Raiders. The Raiders are 1-6 SU and ATS the past seven times on the road during an early start time.
10-06-19	Vikings -4.5 v. Giants		28-10	Win	100	140 h 28 m	Show
Daniel Jones has provided a spark to the Giants. Since he replaced Eli Manning, the Giants have gone 2-0. Those victories, though, were against the Buccaneers and Redskins. Now Jones has to step way up in class and face an elite defense, the Vikings. Jones doesn't have much skill position support either with Saquan Barkley out. The Vikings are in an angry mood after losing to the Bears last week. Don't think for an instant the Giants defense is any good just because they held the impotent Redskins to three points this past Sunday. Kirk Cousins has a history of playing better versus weaker competition. Look for the Vikings to open things up more, too, against the Giants making better use of star wideouts Adam Thielen and Stefan Diggs to go with the dangerous Dalvin Cook in the backfield. The Giants are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 home games. The Vikings are at least two levels higher than the Giants and should win by double-digits.
10-06-19	Jets +14.5 v. Eagles		6-31	Loss	-135	87 h 5 m	Show
I'll take two touchdowns with the Jets figuring neither Sam Darnold nor C.J. Mosley, their best defensive player, are going to play. Mosley is surely out at least another week. It's a huge plus if Darnold can play. But I'm fine with Luke Falk under center at this high of a point spread. The Eagles have a cluster injury problem in their secondary. They could be down their three best cornerbacks. They also are missing two defensive linemen and star defensive end Fletcher Cox is dealing with a foot aliment. So he might be out, too, or extremely hobbled if he does play. The Jets do get back defensive lineman Quinnen Williams, who is projected to be the best rookie defensive lineman in the NFL. Falk is who he is - a desperation third-stringer with limited talent. But at least now he's had time to work with the Jets' first-string offense. Adam Gase should be able to coach him up especially with the Jets coming off a bye. Falk has decent wide receivers and a workhorse running back, Le'Veon Bell, who also is one of the better pass-receiving running back. The Eagles go on the road for three straight away games following this matchup taking on the Vikings, Cowboys and Bills. They don't want to have to exert or show too much against this lowly non-division opponent. They will be happy just to get a win and get healthy.
10-06-19	Bills v. Titans -2		14-7	Loss	-110	87 h 52 m	Show
The Bills had great anticipation and hope before last Sunday's game against the Patriots. Those were dashed when the Bills' offense couldn't produce anything and Josh Allen got hurt. I respect the heck out of Buffalo's defense, but they are a deflated team this week and forced to go with journeyman backup QB Matt Barkley. Allen isn't accurate. Neither is Barkley. Allen was a running threat, however, and could make a big play. Barkley can't run, nor produce big plays. The Titans are a solid team that could be feared if Marcus Mariota is able to step up his game. Mariota showed signs of doing that last week. He has a 7-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio and his pass protection was the best it has been all season last Sunday against the Falcons. The Bills' defense is much more physical and superior to the Falcons. The Titans, though, get their best offensive lineman, left tackle Taylor Lewan, back from suspension. Tennessee has edges at all the skill positions as the Bills can't match Derrick Henry in the backfield, nor Corey Davis at wide receiver.
10-05-19	UMass v. Florida International -26	Top	0-44	Win	100	48 h 47 m	Show
UMass won its first game of the season last week beating Akron at home as a 9 1/2-point underdog, 37-29. The Minutemen are terrible, though, and I want to fade them off that victory. UMass had lost its previous four games by 34 points to Coastal Carolina, by 35 points to Charlotte, by 25 points to Southern Illinois and by 27 points to Rutgers. Florida International was idle last week. The Golden Panthers have covered the past four times following a bye. They are 3-0 under Butch Davis after a bye. The Golden Panthers can't slip here if they want to have a realistic shot of a bowl bid. Davis has stressed that to his team. James Morgan looked good for Florida International in a loss to Louisiana Tech going 29-for-41 with 394 yards passing and three touchdowns in its last game. Morgan had been out with an ankle injury. Morgan entered the season as one of the better QB's in Conference USA. UMass is starting third-stringer Michael Curtis at QB. The Minutemen are in rebuild mode starting seven true freshmen, most of any FBS team. UMass ranks 115th in yards gained and is second-to-last in the nation in yards allowed and points given up.
10-05-19	Baylor +2.5 v. Kansas State		31-12	Win	100	45 h 32 m	Show
I like Baylor QB Charlie Brewer much more than Kansas State QB Skylar Thompson. Brewer is one of the more underrated QB's in college football. He has yet to throw an interception and has connected on 66 percent of his throws while accounting for 10 touchdowns. The Bears rank No. 2 in the Big 12 in run defense and scoring defense. They haven't yielded more than 21 points in a game. The Wildcats don't have the weapons Baylor has. The Bears can just concentrate on Kansas State running back James Gilbert. Denzel Mims gives Baylor the most dynamic player on the field. The Wildcats were exposed by Oklahoma State last week suffering their first loss, 26-3, after winning their first three games. Kansas State surrendered 526 yards in that loss. The Wildcats lack a pass rush and aren't good at stopping the run either. I have less respect for the Wildcats now that Bill Snyder isn't their head coach anymore.
09-30-19	Bengals v. Steelers -3	Top	3-27	Win	100	18 h 49 m	Show
This matchup has lost much of its star power with no Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown and A.J. Green. It's going to be decided in the trenches - and that's where the Steelers hold a monster edge to go with home field and the mental confidence of having defeated Cincinnati eight straight times. The Bengals can't run the ball, nor stop the run. That's a very bad combination especially when playing Pittsburgh on the road. The Bengals are last in the NFL in rushing and second from the bottom in run defense. The Steelers aren't going to be fancy here. They don't need to be. Mason Rudolph should play better in his second NFL start and first at home. He doesn't need to play great, just steady behind a very good offensive line. Pittsburgh defense will be fired up. It played very well at San Francisco last week. Rookie Devin Bush gives the Steelers' needed linebacker speed that they haven't had since Ryan Shazier was injured. Andy Dalton needs weapons to succeed. Instead he's saddled with a bottom-five offensive line. Bad offensive lines don't travel well. Cincinnati has lost its last seven away matchups.
09-29-19	Jaguars v. Broncos -3		26-24	Loss	-115	92 h 18 m	Show
At 0-3 the Broncos are in desperation mode. The Jaguars are sure to get the Broncos' top effort. Denver is especially tough at home early in the season when opponents aren't in shape to deal with high altitude. The Broncos are 13-1 during their last 14 September home games. The Broncos' defense is better than it has showed. I'm not buying any Minshew Mania. Gardner Minshew is far more game manager than gunslinger. He needs to heavily lean on Leonard Fournette, who is having a disappointing season so far. Forget, too, about Jacksonville returning to its playoff ways of two seasons ago. The Jaguars are more like last season's 5-11 team. Their offense lacks a downfield attack, Fournette may be in the wrong system and the defense isn't as dominant as last year missing some key players, including linebacker Telvin Smith. It's not a fluke the Jaguars have dropped 12 of their past 15 games while going 4-9-2 ATS during this span. They just aren't very good.
09-29-19	Browns +7.5 v. Ravens		40-25	Win	100	11 h 58 m	Show
Yes, the Browns were the most overhyped team entering the season. Now, though, the pendulum has swung too far the other way. The Browns aren't as bad as they've looked. This is a step down for the Browns after they played the Rams last week. Baltimore nipped Cleveland, 26-24, at home last season. The Browns are far more talented this season. It's taken a while, but I see Baker Mayfield and his talented skill position players putting the pieces together in this matchup. The Ravens' defense down is from a year ago and they have multiple injuries in their secondary. Mayfield will be able to spot open receivers. The Ravens are at their worst in the role of home favorite, too, where they are 1-7 ATS the past eight times, including failing to cover the last four times as home chalk. Baltimore is the most run-oriented team in the league. They are not built to cover margins like this especially in a huge division game.
09-28-19	SMU v. South Florida +8		48-21	Loss	-108	26 h 40 m	Show
South Florida has improved since switching to redshirt freshman QB Jordan McCloud. But a big reason for this handicap is a go-against SMU off its great win against rival TCU and to fade Sonny Dykes, one of my least favorite coaches. The Mustangs are 2-6 ATS the last eight times facing a below .500 opponent. South Florida was blown out 49-0 by Wisconsin in its opener. That loss doesn't look quite as bad considering the unbeaten Badgers just blew out Michigan. The Bulls then covered a road game at Georgia Tech, losing 14-10, and then buried South Carolina State at home two weeks ago, 55-16. McCloud accounted for five TD's in that victory. The Bulls were idle last week. So the Bulls will be rested and prepared while catching SMU off a big win. South Florida's defense is highly opportunistic tied for first in the country in forcing turnovers and fumbles recoverd.
09-28-19	USC v. Washington -10		14-28	Win	100	48 h 11 m	Show
I don't see USC defeating Utah and Washington in consecutive games. Aside from a strong passing attack, the Trojans aren't as good as Washington in every other area. The gap is especially huge on defense and coaching. Washington has had the best defense in the Pac-12 the past couple of years and that defense remains eite. The Huskies have a balanced attack. QB Jacob Eason, a transfer from Georgia, is getting better each week in Washington's system. The Trojans are going with third-string Matt Fink at quarterback because of injuries to JT Daniels and Kedon Slovis. This will be his first road start. The Huskies have a strong pass defense along with 10 sacks and four interceptions.
09-28-19	Northwestern +24.5 v. Wisconsin		15-24	Win	100	44 h 54 m	Show
Undefeated Wisconsin has outscored its three opponents, 145-14. The Badgers are off a smashing victory against Michigan last Saturday. All of this contributes to a very inflated line for this matchup. The Wildcats beat the Badgers by 14 points last season. Northwestern has played Wisconsin extremely tough during the last four years, winning twice and losing by 14 and nine points, respectively, in the other two games. Northwestern's Pat Fitzgerald is one of the top 'dog coaches in the country. The Wildcats have covered 11 of the past 14 times they were road 'dogs. That strong record would be even more impressive, but the underdog Wildcats suffered a horrendous ATS bad beat in the closing seconds against Stanford in their opener on a safety with 20 seconds left. The Wildcats are 15-2 in their last 17 Big Ten games. One of those losses occurred to Michigan State by 21 points at home last week. That's another contributing factor explaining why this line is overinflated. Northwestern is 9-4 ATS following a defeat. They shouldn't lack motivation after being embarrassed by Michigan State. The Badgers, on the other hand, are fat and happy having steamrolled Michigan. They aren't going to be taking Northwestern as serious as they did the Wolverines.
09-28-19	Central Michigan +17 v. Western Michigan	Top	15-31	Win	100	26 h 13 m	Show
Central Michigan is much improved from last year's 1-11 season under new coach Jim McElwain. This improvement has come during the Chippewas' last two games, a 45-24 home win against Akron and a 17-12 road loss to Miami as a 30 1/2-point road 'dog. The Chippewas won the time of possession battle against the Hurricanes and held them to 1.6 yards rushing and 303 total yards. The Chippewas can control clock, too, versus Western Michigan in this Mid-American Conference rivalry matchup. Central Michigan's has found the right quarterback in David Moore. He's started the past two games and has accounted for 533 passing yards and three touchdowns, two via the air, with one interception. The Chippewas are not the same team that was steamrolled three weeks ago by powerful Wisconsin, 61-0, in Madison. Moore didn't start that game. These two teams are much closer than this spread. Western Michigan was hammered by a Big Ten, too, three weeks ago losing to Michigan State, 51-17. The Broncos lost to Syracuse, 52-33, as 3 1/2-point road 'dogs last Saturday. Western Michigan is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games. The Broncos will be without one of their key players, injured cornerback D'Wayne Eskridge. He also is sixth on the team in receiving yards. The Chippewas have covered nine of their last 13 games and have gone 4-1-1 ATS the past six times meeting the Broncos.
09-28-19	Kansas v. TCU -14		14-51	Win	100	22 h 42 m	Show
Kansas is going to take TCU's best punch after the Horned Frogs suffered a humbling 41-38 loss to city rival SMU last weekend. TCU was 7 1/2-point favorites in that game. The loss knocked them out of the Top-25. Gary Patterson is a no nonsense coach. He's not going to screw around here. The Horned Frogs are going to pound away at Kansas, which could be missing its leading tackler, linebacker Dru Prox. Patterson will be reminding his squad about last season's game when the Jayhawks upset the Horned Frogs, 27-26, in Kansas. The Jayhawks are improved under new coach Les Miles. They have some good skill position players particularly at running back. But TCU owns the defensive edge and has a strong advantage in the trenches. This probably isn't going to be a pretty win, but in the end I see the Horned Frogs controlling clock and winning by more than two touchdowns.
09-27-19	San Jose State v. Air Force -18	Top	24-41	Loss	-114	56 h 2 m	Show
San Jose State intercepted five passes from pass-crazy Arkansas in stunning the Razorbacks, 31-24, as 20-point road 'dogs this past Saturday. It was the first time the Spartans ever defeated an SEC foe and their first victory against any power conference opponent since 2006. You can count on one hand and be missing a finger to add up the number of times San Jose State has beaten a power conference team this century. Some of the San Jose players and coaches called it the greatest win in San Jose football history. Heady stuff for the Spartans. The school and the players celebrated in grand style with a campus rally on Monday. That's a rarity and a big deal at San Jose State. The Spartans had two wins the previous two years entering this season. Now, though, the Spartans have to travel into high altitude on a short week after returning 1,800 miles back to San Jose from Arkansas. They draw what should be an aroused Air Force team that lost to Boise State last Friday. The Falcons couldn't sustain their road victory against Colorado two weeks ago when they fell to Boise State. Now they are home again. The Spartans aren't coming up with five interceptions again. Air Force may not even throw the ball five times. The Falcons are the nation's fourth-leading rushing team. They are a physical, option-attack team that is well drilled and disciplined. It's a terrible matchup for San Jose coming off its great victory. The Falcons are tough defensively, too. Only 19 teams surrender fewer yards per game than Air Force.
09-22-19	Saints +5.5 v. Seahawks		33-27	Win	100	133 h 13 m	Show
The Saints are getting a generous amont of points against a mediocre Seahawks squad because Drew Brees is out. Teddy Bridgewater, though, is one of the better backups in the league. Bridgewater gives the Saints a running dimension from the quarterback spot they lacked from Brees. He has excellent weapons with Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas being among the best at their respective positions. Offensive mastermind Seay Payton can also coach Bridgewater up with a full week to prepare. The Seahawks were outgained by nearly 200 yards at home by the winless Bengals in Week 1, lucky to escape with a victory. Seattle then caught a break this past Sunday against the Steelers when Ben Roethilsberger couldn't go in the second due to an elbow injury. Seattle's home field isn't as dominant as before and the Legion of Boom is no more. Instead the Seahawks have an inexperienced and vulnerable secondary.
09-22-19	Steelers +8 v. 49ers		20-24	Win	100	133 h 12 m	Show
The Steelers are in must-win mode win at 0-2. The 49ers are in a letdown spot returning home after opening 2-0 with a pair of road victories. Those wins came against the Buccaneers and Bengals, though. Now the 49ers face their toughest opponent. The line is inflated because Ben Roethlisberger is out. He's replaced by Mason Rudolph. The Steelers have had bad backup quarterbacks before. Rudolph is a step above their previous second-string QB's. He was a star at Oklahoma State and looked good during preseason. The Steelers still have a good defense, an elite offensive line and solid weapons for Rudolph to succeed. San Francisco is much improved. But the 49ers still are not better than the Steelers even with the change from Roethlisberger to Rudolph. Their offense is a work-in-progress and they just lost offensive left tackle Joe Staley, who suffered a broken leng. The 49ers have holes on defense especially in the secondary. The Steelrs upgraded their secondary and showed to their fans they haven't given up on the season by trading a first-round pick for versatile defensive back Minkah Fitzpatrick.
09-22-19	Raiders v. Vikings -7.5	Top	14-34	Win	100	130 h 54 m	Show
Jon Gruden doesn't fool me. The Raiders are bad on both sides of the ball. Just like last season. They lack skill position talent and their defense is bottom tier. The Raiders don't travel well either losing 15 of their last 17 road/neutral sites matchups going 3-13-1 ATS in those games. The Vikings have one of the best home fields in football covering 70 percent of their last 54 home games. Note this is an early start time, too. Bad news for the West Coast Raiders. Dalvin Cook is a premier running back. If the Raiders load the box to stop him they become vulnerable to Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs. The Vikings are hungry for a win after losing to the Packers last week.
09-22-19	Ravens +7.5 v. Chiefs		28-33	Win	100	130 h 52 m	Show
The Ravens lost 27-24 in overtime to the Chiefs in Kansas City last season. That is their only loss during their past nine regular season games. The Ravens are itching for revenge and are better than they were last December when they met the Chiefs. The main reason for this is the emergence of Lamar Jackson as a legitimate dual threat quarterback. He has thrown the same number of touchdown passes as Patrick Mahomes this season. Jackson has upgraded weapons supporting hin and a better group of running backs. Baltimore also has the superior defense. The Chiefs are dealing with two key offensive injuries - wide receiver Tyreek Hill and left tackle Eric Fisher.
09-21-19	Washington -6 v. BYU		45-19	Win	100	52 h 6 m	Show
Washington has had the best defense in the Pac-12 for the past four years and this year's defense is right up there, too. The Huskies have a powerful offensive line, a balanced attack and Georgia transfer QB Jacob Eason has taken command of Chris Peterson's Washington offense. He looked good in the Huskies' 52-20 home win against Hawaii last week. The Huskies are similar to Utah and the Utes hammered BYU, 30-12, at BYU. The Cougars rebounded from that defeat by coming up with upset victories at Tennessee and home against USC. Both of those games went overtime. BYU was outgained in each of those games, but won the turnover battle. Washington knows how to take care of the ball. Washington rolled over BYU, 35-7, last season.
09-21-19	Louisville v. Florida State -6.5	Top	24-35	Win	100	47 h 50 m	Show
With just a one-point overtime victory against Louisiana Monroe, Florida State is desperate for a victory. The Seminoles are 1-2, but could be 3-0 having blown fourth-quarter leads against Virginia and Boise State. Florida State has the athletes and talent especially on offense. James Blackman has come through at quarterback and Cam Akers is one of the best running backs in the country. Scott Satterfield is doing a good job in his first season at Louisville. But he has a major rebuild job to do. The Cardinals are coming off easy wins against two overmatched opponents, Eastern Kentucky and Western Kentucky. This is a step-up game for the Cardinals and it's also an off-surface for them. While I think the Cardinals are improved and on the right track under Satterfield, I don't see them staying within a touchdown of highly motivated Florida State.
09-21-19	Michigan +3.5 v. Wisconsin		14-35	Loss	-110	64 h 44 m	Show
Michigan has been pointing to this matchup since before the season. The Wolverines haven't looked sharp in beating Middle Tennessee and Army. They also purposely haven't shown too much. The Badgers have outscored their two opponents, 110-0. Those two foes, though, were Central Michigan and South Florida. Wisconsin still doesn't have a good quarterback. If this game would have been the season opener for both teams Michigan would have been favored. Playing option-oriented Army is a good thing for Michigan in its preparation against the ground-and-pound Badgers. Look for the Wolverines to load the box daring Wisconsin QB Jack Coan to beat them, which he can't. Wisconsin faced two weak defenses. The Badgers are not properly battle-tested for Michigan's elite athleticism and size. Note, too, the Badgers are 1-8 ATS following a victory.

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