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Stephen Nover Football Sides Picks

Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
09-27-20	Packers v. Saints -3		37-30	Loss	-110	82 h 52 m	Show
Green Bay enters New Orleans puffed up with a 2-0 mark. They're going to draw an angry Saints squad that was embarrassed losing to the Raiders this past Monday night. The Packers' offensive line was able to control Detroit's weak defensive line and a much-regressed Vikings defense line devoid of injured Danielle Hunter. Aaron Rodgers and Aaron Jones took it from there being instrumental in Green Bay producing 85 points and 1,010 yards of offense in its first two games. Green Bay, however, won't have it so easy against a good and deep Saints' defensive line. The Saints are healthy defensively compared to the Lions and Vikings. Once you get past Jones and Davante Adams, the Packers are shallow at the skill position spots and tight end without any consistent playmakers. The Packers were able to cover up their defensive deficiencies because their offense was humming. That won't be the case here. Even without Michael Thomas, the Saints have a balanced attack. As good as Jones is, he's trumped by Alvin Kamara. Given the matchup and situation, the Saints are a value at minus just a field goal.
09-27-20	Bucs -6 v. Broncos		28-10	Win	100	78 h 23 m	Show
Part of the Broncos historically being tough at home is their edge playing at Mile High Stadium. But only 5,700 fans will be allowed to attend, which is 7.5 percent capacity. So the Broncos' home field advantage is reduced. That makes the Buccaneers even more attractive because matchup-wise they should dominate. Denver's defense is down due to injuries to Von Miller and cornerback A.J. Bouye. The Broncos have just two sacks on 86 dropbacks having faced Ryan Tannehill and Ben Roethlisberger. Tom Brady has better weapons than those two quarterbacks especially with Chris Godwin back healthy and Leonard Fournette giving Tampa Bay its best running back in several years. The Broncos did not do a good job in backing up Drew Lock, who is out with a rotator cuff strain. Jeff Driskel is a career backup and not a very good one. He's inaccurate and takes too many sacks. Denver also is without its best wideout, Courtland Sutton, and all-purpose back, Phillip Lindsay. The Buccaneers have a stout defense. They led the NFL in rush defense last season and have the pass rushers to take full advantage of Driskel's inadequacies.
09-27-20	Raiders v. Patriots -6	Top	20-36	Win	100	76 h 53 m	Show
Just a terrible spot for Las Vegas. The Raiders are traveling cross-country off a monster home upset win against the Saints this past Monday night. The Patriots may have the best secondary in football. The Patriots also have limited their opponents to the third-fewest snaps. Derek Carr has gone against Bill Belichick twice. Carr has completed less than 60 percent of his throws, has fewer than a 5.0 YPA and has a 1-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio in those two combined games. The Raiders also could be without both of their starting offensive tackles. Richie Incognito is out with an Achilles injury and Trent Brown is dealing with a calf injury. Cam Newton appears to be a perfect fit for New England. He looked great against Seattle last week throwing for 444 yards and three TD's. Newton remains a huge running threat. The Raiders are giving up 27 points a game. Las Vegas is catching New England off a loss. The Patriots have covered 70 percent of their last 60 games following a defeat.
09-27-20	49ers v. Giants +4		36-9	Loss	-115	55 h 45 m	Show
The 49ers got away with being road chalk of more than a field goal last Sunday because they were playing the Jets. The Giants aren't very good either, but they are not the Jets. They are a level higher. I don't see San Francisco escaping MetLife Stadium, a place it hates to play, with back-to-back road victories. The 49ers are just too banged-up. Yes, the Giants are down Saquan Barkley and Sterling Shepard. Barkley is their best player. Still, the Giants' injuries don't compare to how many key players are out for the 49ers. Let's start with defense where both the 49ers' line and secondary are heavily reduced with Nick Bosa, Solomon Thomas, Dee Ford and Richard Sherman all out. Bosa and Ford are the team's best pass rushers. Sherman is their best cornerback and a team leader. That's just on defense. Now go to offense where the 49ers are without their starting center, two best running backs, top wide receiver and oh yes, quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo. Kyle Shanahan can game plan all he wants, but he doesn't have the pieces to formulate anything other than a conservative just-try-to-get-alive-out-of-here mentality. It's not just physical with the 49ers. They are mentally not right about playing at this stadium believing the carpet helped cause some of their many injuries. The Giants are good enough to take advantage. They nearly upset the Bears on the road last week after losing Barkley early in the game. Daniel Jones has upside and other decent wide receivers besides Shepard. The Giants' defense also has made strides. At 0-2, the Giants are in must-win mode. The 49ers are going to take New York's best punch. I don't see them being able to withstand it in their crippled situation.
09-27-20	Washington Football Team +7.5 v. Browns		20-34	Loss	-117	34 h 15 m	Show
Now that the line has gotten past a touchdown, I'm going to get involved with Washington. There are a number of below-the-surface factors that point to Washington keeping this game close. Washington is better coached this season, hasn't shown any quit and ranks first in the league in sacks. Washington also is No. 1 in Football Outsiders' DVOA defensive ranking, a metric that measures a team's production versus league average. Washington's offense is learning a new system. Improvement should come each week. The Browns get back cornerback Kevin Johnson and linebacker Mack Wilson. However, they will be without cornerback Greedy Williams, Olivier Vernon,, their second-best pass rusher, and star cornerback Denzel Ward is questionable after injuring a groin muscle in practice. Terry McLaurin is Washington's one dangerous playmaker. He could be set up for success if Ward can't go. Washington knows its offensive limitations. So they've centered their attack around throwing short passes to their running backs. This could work against Cleveland, which remains thin in the secondary. The Browns have not played well on special teams. They have one of the more worrisome kicking situations. Bottom line is the Browns, who are 12-25-1 ATS in their last 38 home games, just aren't a strong enough overall team to lay this many points against a feisty underdog.
09-26-20	Kansas v. Baylor -17.5		14-47	Win	100	26 h 28 m	Show
Baylor has owned Kansas covering the past eight times. The Jayhawks have been held to less than double-digit scoring each of the past five seasons in this matchup. I expect Baylor's defense to remain strong with defensive guru Dave Aranda taking over as head coach from Matt Ruhle. Aranda inherits a defense that gave up the 19th-fewest points, was seventh in sacks and No. 2 in takeaways. The Jayhawks showed they aren't going to be very good again by losing, 38-23, to Coastal Carolina in their first game two weeks ago. Kansas trailed 28-3 in that game. The Jayhawks' top playmaker is running back Pooka Williams, and he's banged-up.
09-26-20	Stephen F Austin +35.5 v. SMU		7-50	Loss	-110	26 h 60 m	Show
SMU has a Top 25-worthy offense. But the Mustangs have a leaky defense. The combination of SMU likely dipping into their reserves and their defensive vulnerability should allow Stephen F. Austin to cover this large number. The Lumberjacks are an FCS school. But they've played two FBS teams this season, scoring 24 points each against UTEP and UTSA. Stephen F. Austin is much improved from its 3-9 record of last year. The Lumberjacks are a decent FCS team. SMU surrendered 24 points to Texas State and 35 to North Texas. Stephen F. Austin has the firepower to produce at least 24 points again.
09-26-20	Iowa State v. TCU +3		37-34	Push	0	21 h 31 m	Show
I'm not buying Iowa State as a road favorite against TCU. The Horned Frogs have defeated the Cyclones four of the last five times they've hosted them. Iowa State is 0-5-1 ATS the past six times it has laid points. TCU should be improved on both sides of the ball. The Horned Frogs are extremely anxious to begin their season after an early postponement. Iowa State is 0-1. The Cyclones were upset by Louisiana-Lafayette unable to handle the Ragin Cajuns' big plays. TCU is explosive, too. Brock Purdy did not have a good game for Iowa State in that loss. Purdy certainly is worthy of respect, but so is TCU's safety tandem of Ar'Darius Washington and Trevon Moehrig. They are considered by some to be among the best safeties in college football.
09-20-20	Patriots +4 v. Seahawks		30-35	Loss	-108	35 h 45 m	Show
Seattle is not an elite team. The Seahawks are a borderline playoff team that can be beat in the trenches. Their sack rate ranked among the bottom three last year. The Seahawks, though, have three things going for them - a tremendous home field, excellent coaching and Russell Wilson. All of those huge Seattle pluses are negated here. There are not going to be any fans at CenturyLink Field. It's the first time that's happened for Seattle players and it's going to feel extremely weird and strange to them. Pete Carroll is that rare coach who can coach players up. He's good, but he's trumped by Bill Belichick, the best in the business. The Patriots, by the way, have covered 69 percent of the time the past 52 times they've been an underdog. Still want to lay points against Belichick? Wilson goes from facing Atlanta's weak secondary to New England's defensive backfield, which is the deepest and best in the NFL. Stephon Gilmore can completely take away DK Metcalf. As good as Wilson is, he's not going to light up the Patriots' secondary like he did the hapless Falcons. The Patriots are the best at adapting to what they have. Their receiving corps is way down this season. So Belichick and ace play-caller Josh McDaniels have gone to a ground-oriented attack revolving around Cam Newton, one of the best running quarterbacks in the league. Jamal Adams is the only Seattle defender who can match Newton's athleticism. Adams upgrades Seattle's secondary. The Seahawks, however, are just average defensively. They have been that way for the past three years. Even with Adams, the Seahawks' secondary is nowhere the caliber it was when their Legion of Boom was intact.
09-20-20	Chiefs -8.5 v. Chargers	Top	23-20	Loss	-106	86 h 27 m	Show
The Chiefs came on to capture the Super Bowl last season. They are even better this year. Their defense has been solid since the middle of last season and the offense is even scarier with rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire being an upgrade on their previous running backs. He's just one of two new players to Kansas City's formidable starting lineup. Having lineup and coaching continuity is vital this season. The Chiefs have that. The Chargers hold little home field advantage. Their offensive line is banged-up and quarterback Tyrod Taylor can't keep up with Patrick Mahomes. The Chargers have little back-door cover capability if falling behind by double-digits. The Chargers' O-line already is banged-up missing two starters last Sunday. Kansas City has the pass rushers with Chris Jones and Frank Clark to take advantage. The Chiefs put up 34 points on the Texans last Thursday. Kansas City's offense hasn't even rounded into top shape yet. The Chargers have a better defense than Houston, but losing star safety Derwin James hurts them. The Chiefs have dominated the Chargers beating them 11 of the last 12 times. Kansas City is just on a great point spread roll period going 10-1-1 ATS in its last 12 games. I'm not going to overthink this matchup. I'm just going to roll with the Chiefs.
09-20-20	Panthers v. Bucs -9		17-31	Win	100	83 h 59 m	Show
The Buccaneers have the skill position pieces to bury a terrible Carolina defense. The Panthers lost their No. 1 cornerback James Bradberry in the offseason and their projected No. 2 cornerback, Elie Apple, is on IR. Carolina also was without cornerback Donte Jackson opening week. The Panthers are left with an inexperienced, makeshift secondary that includes special teams player Troy Pride at corner. Savvy Tom Brady should pick apart this weak defensive backfield especially since he'll likely have plenty of time to throw. Carolina did not even get a quarterback hit on Derek Carr in surrendering 34 points to the Raiders last week. The Raiders hadn't scored that many points in two years. While the Panthers have the worst defense in the league, the Buccaneers have one of the best. Tampa Bay ranked No. 1 in stopping the run last season. That's extremely bad news for the Panthers, who heavily rely on running back Christian McCaffrey. Bruce Arians was not happy with the play of Brady, offensive left tackle Donovan Smith and his special teams. I expect those areas will be cleaned up in what shapes up to be a Tampa Bay kill spot.
09-20-20	Giants +5.5 v. Bears		13-17	Win	100	31 h 28 m	Show
The Bears haven't won their first two games of the season in seven years. They were lucky to get past the Lions opening week rallying from a 23-6 deficit. The Bears launched their comeback after the Lions' top three cornerbacks all went out of the game with injuries. I remain unimpressed with Mitchell Trubisky. He only plays well against the Lions and he stunk for three quarters. The Giants' defense has improved especially in the defensive line. The Lions bashed the Bears for 151 yards rushing. So Saquon Barkley should be in for a big game. The Bears are missing run-stuffing nose tackle Eddie Goldman, who opted out of the season, and their best pass rushers (Khalil Mack and Robert Quinn) are both banged-up. Daniel Jones set a rookie record with 18 touchdowns on the road last season. The Giants are expected to get back Golden Tate, too. The Giants have been excellent as road 'dogs covering 10 of the last 12 times in that role. The Bears have been one of the poorer point spread teams going 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games.
09-19-20	Central Florida -7.5 v. Georgia Tech	Top	49-21	Win	100	25 h 54 m	Show
Central Florida has been one of the most impressive teams in the country during the last three seasons going 35-4 while covering 64 percent of its away contests during this time frame. The Knights are proven road warriors covering 14 of their last 18 away matchups, winning 10 road games by more than a touchdown during this three-year span. The Knights start out fast, too, going 9-0 ATS during the first three games of the season the last three years. The Knights draw Georgia Tech, which is playing a non-conference game here. The Yellow Jackets opened their season upsetting fellow ACC foe, Florida State, 16-13 on the road as nearly two-touchdown 'dogs. So this is a potential flat spot and letdown spot for Georgia Tech. Not to take anything away from Georgia Tech, but Florida State did not play well. Central Florida has a much stronger offense than Georgia Tech, which still is in rebuild mode under second-year coach Geoff Collins.
09-19-20	UL-Lafayette v. Georgia State +16.5		34-31	Win	100	21 h 23 m	Show
Louisiana Lafayette cracked The Associated Press Top 25 for the first time since 1943 after upsetting Iowa State, 31-14, as 13 1/2-point road 'dogs. That's heady stuff. But it also puts the Cajuns in a tough spot this week laying more than two touchdowns on the road to Sun Belt Conference rival Georgia State. The Panthers are respectable having gone to a bowl two of the last three years under coach Shawn Elliott. They opened with a victory against Tennessee of the SEC last season on their way to a winning record. The Panthers have 16 starters back. Not to diminish the Cajuns' huge upset of the Cyclones, but they did score touchdowns on a 95-yard kickoff return and 83-yard punt return.
09-19-20	Syracuse +21 v. Pittsburgh		10-21	Win	100	11 h 45 m	Show
I don't want to overreact to these team's opening games. Pittsburgh destroyed Austin Peay while Syracuse got buried in the fourth quarter by North Carolina. But I do keep in mind that Austin Peay isn't a Division I team while North Carolina is a top-25 team. So Pittsburgh definitely is stepping up in class. I don't trust Pittsburgh coach Pat Narduzzi to cover a big margin because I'm never sold on his offenses and I'm not a fan of Pitt QB Kenny Pickett. The Panthers also have a bad record as home chalk - 8-19 ATS the past 27 times in that role. I recall last September when Pittsburgh hosted Delaware. The Panthers were 27 1/2-point favorites. It took a fourth quarter touchdown for the Panthers to eke out a 17-14 victory. I expect Syracuse to play a full four quarters, something it didn't against North Carolina. The Orangemen were hanging in through three quarters in that matchup before the game got out of hand.
09-17-20	Bengals +6 v. Browns	Top	30-35	Win	100	43 h 16 m	Show
Normally it's a huge disadvantage to be the road team for a Thursday game. But Cleveland's home edges are reduced. There won't be close to 70,000 screaming Browns fans at FirstEnergy Stadium. Instead seating capacity will be limited to 6,000. The Bengals know the Browns well being heated division rivals. Cincinnati also has coaching continuity. This is something the Browns don't have with first-year head coach Kevin Stefanski and a new offensive system. The Bengals displayed promise and hope in their 16-13 opening week loss to the Chargers. They led the Chargers in the fourth quarter. Cincinnati was done in by poor place-kicking. That game should have at least reached overtime. The Browns, though, also are dealing with kicking woes bringing in Cody Parkey to replace Austin Seibert, who the Bengals promptly picked up maybe to pick up some secrets about the Browns. Cleveland is likely to run the ball a lot at the Bengals. The Browns weren't able to pound away opening week because they fell too far behind the Ravens. Getting smashed by Baltimore, 38-6, surely does not help the Browns' fragile morale. The Bengals should be able to throw effectively on the Browns, who are without active linebacker Mack Wilson and already have a depleted secondary down three projected starters. Safety Grant Delpit is out for the season, while cornerbacks Kevin Johnson and Greedy Williams didn't play in Week 1 and aren't likely to be ready here during this short turnaround. The Browns probably are going to be forced to use special teams player Tavierre Thomas as a slot cornerback. Thomas played just three defensive snaps last season and 28 defensive snaps this past Sunday. The Bengals have a deep wide receiving group with A.J. Green, Tyler Boyd, Tee Higgins, John Ross and Auden Tate. Joe Burrow is at his best operating a spread-type offense, which the Bengals are smart enough to employ. Burrow can negate Myles Garrett and Cleveland's other pass rushers by effectively throwing short passes and using top-10 running back Joe Mixon on the ground. Cincinnati has covered nine of the last 11 in this series and also is 8-3 ATS the past 11 times as a road 'dog. The Browns aren' good enough, nor trustworthy enough, to lay nearly a touchdown against a much-improved division foe.
09-13-20	Cowboys v. Rams +3	Top	17-20	Win	100	108 h 19 m	Show
The public appeal of the Cowboys and the market being down on the Rams after last season's disappointment have produced a mispriced line here. The Rams should not be a field goal home 'dog to Dallas. Although there will be no fans in the stand, the Rams have extra motivation for a 44-21 embarrassing loss they suffered to the Cowboys last season and this being the first game at their new SoFi Stadium. Jared Goff is close to an elite quarterback - when he's playing at home where he has a 31-to-11 touchdown-to-interception ratio the past two seasons compared to a 22-to-17 ratio on the road during this time span. Goff is a pocket passer. The Cowboys don't have their full complement of star pass rushers yet. Dallas' secondary is the most vulnerable part of its defense. Dallas has a high-powered attack. However, the Cowboys' offense may need time to get into gear. Mike McCarthy didn't coach last year. He had a shortened offseason and no preseason to to implement his style. The Cowboys are down two of their offensive linemen from a year ago being minus center Travis Frederick and right tackle La'el Collins. Then there is the Cowboys record as a road favorite. It's not good. Dallas lost straight-up laying points on the road last season to the Eagles, Bears, Jets and Saints, who were using Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback.
09-13-20	Bucs +3.5 v. Saints		23-34	Loss	-104	104 h 16 m	Show
No team improved themselves more in the offseason than the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay went 7-9 last season, but two of those losses occurred in overtime and three other defeats were by four points or fewer. Now the Bucs have increased their respect level by adding Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski. Brady is going to produce points with receiving stars Mike Evans and Chris Godwin to go with a trio of very good tight ends - Gronkowski, O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate. Tampa Bay's offense can trade points with Drew Brees. While Brady received all the off-season attention, the Bucs maintained their underrated defensive front of Shaq Barrett, Jason Pierre-Paul and Ndamukong Suh. The Bucs ranked No. 1 in run defense last season and Barrett led the NFL in sacks. The Saints have a losing record in season-openers during Sean Payton's 14 years. They are 1-5 during their past six opening games and 0-10 ATS during the first two weeks of the season in the past five years.
09-13-20	Cardinals +7.5 v. 49ers		24-20	Win	100	104 h 5 m	Show
There will be times to back the 49ers this season. This isn't one of them. Not with all the players the 49ers may not have. They could be the most banged-up team in the NFL right now. The Cardinals were undervalued by the oddsmaker last season when they went 9-5-2 ATS and they are at the start of this season with this large of a spread. Kyler Murray displayed great potential last year. He'll make a jump in this his second season surrounded by stronger weapons, including top-five wideout DeAndre Hopkins. Arizona also looks much improved defensively. If you discount a meaningless 49ers defensive touchdown on the final play of the game, the Cardinals lost to San Francisco by a combined seven points last season, an average loss of 3.5 points. The 49ers are weaker this season and the Cardinals are stronger. These teams are familiar with each other. It can't be overlooked either that division 'dogs have covered 81 percent on opening week since 2014, a sampling of 27 games.
09-13-20	Colts v. Jaguars +9.5		20-27	Win	100	100 h 27 m	Show
You have to go back to 2006 to find the last time the Colts won a road opener. The Colts have had problems playing in Jacksonville's humidity losing during their past three visits by an average margin of 14.6 points. Philip Rivers is learning a new system. He's played his entire 14-year career with the Chargers. Rivers clearly is well past his prime. The Colts brought in Rivers figuring he would be an upgrade on Jacoby Brisset. They both had the exact same low passer rating, though, last season. Jacksonville's secondary is gutted, but its defensive front seven is respectable. Josh Allen is the best pass rusher on the field. The Jaguars have youthful talent on offense. These guys are hungry to make their mark. Maybe later in the season, the Jaguars might begin tanking. But not now. This is going to be very tough for the Colts to win their first Game 1 game in six years. Much tougher than the marketplace thinks.
09-12-20	UTEP +43.5 v. Texas		3-59	Loss	-110	11 h 8 m	Show
There's not much positive to say about UTEP. But the Miners have already played a game, beating Stephen F. Austin, 24-14, last Saturday. It's worth more this season to have played a game with limited off-season workouts. This is the Longhorns' opener. The Longhorns are going to treat this matchup as a glorified scrimmage. It's their lone non-Big 12 game matchup. Texas isn't going to waste much energy running up a score on UTEP, while the Miners want to keep things respectable in order to bolster their confidence and improve in-state recruiting. The Longhorns just want to get some rust off their starters and then get their reserves in so nobody important gets hurt. Texas being home actually helps the underdog with this large of a spread because the Longhorns can dress more players than they normally could if they were traveling.
09-12-20	Houston Baptist +41 v. Texas Tech		33-35	Win	100	11 h 35 m	Show
Houston Baptist was one of the teams that played last week. That's an advantage for the Huskies because Texas Tech has yet to see action. The Red Raiders have a very good QB in Alan Bowman. But he hasn't seen action in a year due to a broken collarbone. The Red Raiders are breaking in two new offensive tackles so they want to be careful that Bowman doesn't get hurt again. If Texas Tech jumps to a big early lead it would be risky and foolish to keep Bowman on the field. Houston Baptist isn't going to hold Texas Tech in check. But the Huskies can produce points behind a high-volume, spread offense that their offensive coordinator, Zach Kittley, learned during his time as an assistant coach at Texas Tech under Kliff Kingsburgy. The Red Raiders had one of the worst pass defenses last season.
09-12-20	UTSA v. Texas State -6.5		51-48	Loss	-110	7 h 32 m	Show
Both teams were awful last season. Texas State looks improved, though, in its second year under Jake Spavital. The Bobcats hung in against SMU last week, losing 31-24, as 24 1/2-point home 'dogs. Memphis transfer Brady McBride threw for 227 yards and 2 TD's for the Bobcats. Texas State's offense looked much sharper with Spavital taking over the play-calling duties. SMU has a strong offense. Yet the Bobcats were able to come up with three turnovers and forced the Mustangs to punt three times. Now Texas State drops way down in class. Not only is UTSA a bad team - ranking 117th in points and 112th in giving up points last year - but it hasn't played yet. The Roadrunners have a new coaching staff under Jeff Traylor. Don't look for Traylor to get off to a promising start. His team has had to deal with a coronavirus outbreak with a number of players ruled out for this game because of it.
09-10-20	UAB +14.5 v. Miami-FL		14-31	Loss	-115	31 h 44 m	Show
I don't understand why the oddsmaker respects Miami so much in this matchup. I don't see the Hurricanes, a middle-of-the-road ACC team, as being 2-touchdowns superior to UAB, perhaps the best team in Conference USA. The Blazers have a strong defense, particularly versus the pass, and return 10 starters on offense. They have won 28 games during the past three seasons. Very important to note here, too, is UAB has played a game. The Blazers beat Central Arkansas, 45-35, last Thursday. That score was misleading considering the Blazers' domination. This is Miami's first game. The Hurricanes couldn't practice in the spring. They are switching to a spread offense featuring D'Eriq King, who transferred from Houston. King has a big name, but he's one of the more overrated players in my view. I see the Hurricanes struggling against this defense, hurt by not having enough time and practice to learn a new offense and quarterback. Miami's home field advantage is narrowed, too, because there will be limited fan capacity.
01-04-20	Titans v. Patriots -4.5	Top	20-13	Loss	-110	28 h 26 m	Show
So what did the Patriots' shocking home loss to the Dolphins in Week 17 mean besides hosting a wild-card game instead of getting a bye? It means line value on New England as I consider this number too short. Look for Tom Brady to step up as the weaknesses on Tennessee's defense - vulnerable to short passes and a banged-up secondary that ranks 24th in pass defense and 27th in quarterback hit rate - suit his strengths and that of the Patriots. Brady can still pick apart defenses that are vulnerable to short passes, which the Titans are. Sony Michel is running better and Julian Edelman is healthier than he has been giving Brady his security blanket. New England has much the superior defense. The Patriots surrendered the fewest points and yards in the NFL. Their run defense has looked good, too, holding opposing running backs to 3.5 yards per carry during the last five games. Derrick Henry and A.J. Brown are Ryan Tannehill's two major weapons. The Patriots can afford to bring their safeties into the box to help on Henry because cornerback Stephon Gilmore has the talent cover Brown one-on-one. Gilmore may have been the best defensive player in the NFL this season. Tannehill is unproven in big games such as this. He has a poor record, too, versus defensive guru Bill Belichk with a 4-7 mark, 11 interceptions and a 60.1 percent completion rate. The Titans also are bucking these monster numbers: The Patriots have covered 68 percent of their last 65 home games, are 7-2 ATS in their last nine playoff games and are 48-22-1 (69 percent) following a loss.
01-03-20	Ohio v. Nevada +8	Top	30-21	Loss	-110	14 h 43 m	Show
Akron and Bowling Green were the two worst teams in the Mid-American Conference this season. Ohio blew both of them out during its last two games. If you discount those two games, though, the Bobcats went 2-8 ATS, including an 0-6 ATS mark when favored. They also failed to cover in the four games they played against other bowl teams. Nevada is undervalued here, too, because while Ohio was blowing out bad opponents the Wolf Pack fell to UNLV as a 6.5-point home favorite in their final regular season game. Nevada is better as a 'dog than favorite. The Wolf Pack defeated Purdue, San Diego State and Fresno State straight-up all as a double-digit 'dog. The Wolf Pack also knows this venue in Idaho and its higher elevation and unique blue field because they play Boise State being in the Mountain West Conference.
01-02-20	Boston College v. Cincinnati -7	Top	6-38	Win	100	30 h 48 m	Show
Boston College was the sixth-best rushing team in the nation. Most of its rushing yards, though, were provided by AJ Dillon, one of the premier running backs in college football. Dillon is turning pro so he's sitting out this game. Dillon led the ACC in rushing with 1,685 yards. That's just one of the Eagles' many problems. BC's coach, Steve Addazio, was fired at the end of the regular season and the Eagles' offensive coordinator, Mike Bajakian, left to take a job at Northwestern. The Eagles lost their starting quarterback, Anthony Brown, to a knee injury and backup QB sophomore David Bailey has been erratic. Cincinnati is far more stable. The Bearcats have a major edge on defense and a balanced offensive attack with quarterback Desmond Ridder healthy again and solid running backs MIchael Warren III and Gerrid Oaks.
12-29-19	49ers v. Seahawks +3.5	Top	26-21	Loss	-110	50 h 49 m	Show
Seattle is far more experienced in big prime time game such as this and owns an eight-game win streak against the 49ers. The Seahawks are banged-up defensively, but are getting some of those players back, including Jadeveon Clowney. The 49ers also have key defensive injuries namely Kwon Alexander, Dee Ford and Jaquiski Tartt. The Seahawks have won a staggering 84 percent of their prime time games under Pete Carroll, including beating the 49ers, 27-24, on the road in a Week 10 Monday night game. The Seahawks have a monster edge at quarterback in a matchup of Russell Wilson versus Jimmy Garoppolo. The Seahawks took care of their injury situation at running back by bringing back Marshawn Lynch. They also have an underrated running back in Travis Homer.
12-29-19	Raiders v. Broncos -3		15-16	Loss	-125	25 h 33 m	Show
Not that the Raiders have any realisticchance for the playoffs, which they will know for sure when the early start time games finish, but they also aren't winning this game even if their morale isn't destroyed by being eliminated. The Broncos have gotten better under first-year coach Vic Fangio and rookie QB Drew Lock, winning three of their last four. Denver has revenge for a 24-16 opening week loss to the Raiders that set a bad tone for the first half of the season. Oakland has been terrible since late November going 1-4 with losses to the Jets, Chiefs, Titans and Jaguars. They have been outscored by 80 points during this span. The weather is expected to be in the 30s, which is bad news for Derek Carr. He's 0-9 the past nine times when playing in temperatures below 50 degrees with a passer rating of 65.9 compared to 94.7 in other games. Running back Josh Jacobs, the Raiders' best skill position player, isn't expected to play either because of a shoulder injury.
12-29-19	Steelers v. Ravens +2		10-28	Win	100	25 h 32 m	Show
Baltimore is going to be resting starters, including Lamar Jackson. But the Ravens still are going to give a strong effort against their long-time hated division rival. Baltimore is riding an 11-game win streak on pace to become the first team in NFL history to average 200 yards both rushing and passing. The Steelers don't have the offense to beat this team on the road. Not with Duck Hodges behind center and missing James Conner and center Maurkice Pouncey. Ravens backup QB, Robert Griffin III, is a much better player than the extremely limited Hodges. Pittsburgh has managed just eight touchdowns on offense during its last seven games. That won't get the job done against a well-coached prideful Ravens team that would rather not enter the playoffs with a loss especially at home where they haven't lost since September.
12-29-19	Packers v. Lions +13.5		23-20	Win	100	21 h 6 m	Show
Green Bay is traveling on a short week after a monster road win on Monday against the Vikings. The Packers simply need to win here not cover a margin. That's what happened in the first meeting when Green Bay was lucky to win at home. The Packers prevailed, 23-22, on a field goal at the gun. Green Bay was the recipient of several gift calls from the officials that aided them in that victory. The Lions will be motivated by revenge and a chance to close the season on a positive note. Having Kerryon Johnson back, their top runner, takes some of the load off David Blough. Green Bay isn't nearly as dominant as its 12-3 record may indicate ranking below average in both yards gained and yards allowed.
12-27-19	Washington State +3 v. Air Force	Top	21-31	Loss	-110	82 h 5 m	Show
You couldn't ask for a bigger contrast in styles with Air Force a top rushing team and Washington State a great passing team. The Cougars led the nation in passing with Anthony Gordon putting up better numbers than any QB, including Joe Burrow. Gordon has a slew of talented wideouts. Air Force is better versus the run than pass. The Falcons are used to running teams in the Mountain West Conference. Their pass defensive numbers look better than what their talent level is since they played Colgate along with heavily ground-oriented Army and Navy. Air Force doesn't have the depth in the secondary to hang with Washington State. The Falcons also lack the necessary strong pass rush. If you discount games against Colorado State and Hawaii, the Falcons only had 13 sacks. Washington State is better stopping the run than the pass. The Cougars have covered 15 of the last 22 times they've been underdogs.
12-27-19	North Carolina v. Temple +5		55-13	Loss	-110	72 h 54 m	Show
I'm far from sold on North Carolina as a favorite here. The Tar Heels struggled to get to six wins to become bowl eligible. They fattened their stats by beating Mercer, 56-7, and defeated only one bowl team - and that was unimpressive Miami. If you discount the Mercer matchup, nine of North Carolina's 11 games were decided by a touchdown or less. Temple checks a lot of boxes for being a feisty bowl 'dog. The Owls should win the battle of the trenches. They have a strong pass rush and North Carolina has a leaky offensive line that permitted more than three sacks per game. Temple went 7-1 when sacking the quarterback at least three times with the lone loss coming to Cincinnati, 15-13, on the road. Both teams have good passing attacks. But Temple has the eighth-most efficient pass defense in the country. The Owls have experience with high-powered passing attacks having played Central Florida and SMU. The Owls certainly have backdoor capabilities if needed with QB Anthony Russo and WR's Jadan Blue and Branden Mack.
12-26-19	Pittsburgh -10.5 v. Eastern Michigan	Top	34-30	Loss	-110	80 h 51 m	Show
Pittsburgh isn't fancy. The Panthers are meat and potatoes. But they should destroy Eastern Michigan being a Power Five team dropping way down in class to play a Mid-American Conference team in the Quick Lane Bowl. The bar is not set high here for the Panthers. Eastern Michigan can't stop the run and is going to have problems keeping the Pitt defense off quarterback Mike Glass III. The Panthers are 5-1 when rushing for more than 100 yards. The Eagles have yielded at least 230 yards on the ground in four of their last five games. Led by Jaylen Twyman, who has 10 1/2 sacks, the Panthers have recorded 49 sacks and 98 tackles for losses. So Pittsburgh should control the trenches. The key is motivation. Will the Panthers get up for this opponent? They certainly should. Panthers coach Pat Narduzzi is 0-3 in bowls games at Pittsburgh. The Panthers were nipped, 14-13, by Stanford in their bowl game last year. The Panthers won't have a better chance than this to get Narduzzi his first bowl win.
12-22-19	Cardinals +10.5 v. Seahawks		27-13	Win	100	66 h 0 m	Show
Should be a great game when the 11-3 49ers meet the 11-3 Seahawks to decide the NFC West Division. Oh wait, that's next week. Seattle can't help but be looking ahead to that crucial matchup. Problem is the Seahawks aren't good enough to cover this high of a number especially in a look-ahead spot. The Seahawks being eight games above .500 doesn't match their statistics and point differential. They have outscored their opponents by just 26 points on the season. Seattle only has 24 sacks, which ranks among the bottom-three. The Seahawks also have half a dozen injuries to key defenders, including underrated free safety Quandre Diggs. He carries a doubtful tag while Seattle's other banged-up defensive players are questionable. The Cardinals are adept offensively. They have scored 25 or more points in seven of their last 10 games. Kyler Murray is a poor man's Russell Wilson. His weapons match the Seahawks especially with Josh Gordon back on suspension and likely done in the NFL, which was a distraction for Seattle this week. The Seahawks have actually played better on the road. They have covered only twice during their last seven home games often overpriced like they are here. Arizona is 8-4-1 ATS as an underdog this season.
12-22-19	Panthers v. Colts -6.5		6-38	Win	100	63 h 34 m	Show
Injuries and close decisions that didn't go their way ruined the Colts' season. But Indy is a well-coached solid team that almost always can be counted on to provide a strong effort under Frank Reich. The Colts are committed to finishing their year strong in an effort to reach .500. Not so with the rudderless Panthers. They are set adrift with Ron Rivera gone after nine seasons and playing the worst run defense in the league allowing an average of 6.3 yards per rush during their last three games. Carolina has surrendered at least three touchdowns in 10 consecutive games. That's the longest streak in the NFL. But what clinches this fade on the Panthers is Carolina's decision to start rookie Will Grier at QB. Grier was brutal during preseason with a 2-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio and taking seven sacks. He couldn't beat out Kyle Allen to back up Cam Newton and then couldn't replace Allen as Allen kept getting worse and worse. Now the Panthers are in what-the-heck mode turning to Grier for this road start. I would be highly surprised if this turned out to be a positive experience for him and Carolina.
12-21-19	Central Michigan v. San Diego State -3.5	Top	11-48	Win	100	64 h 48 m	Show
San Diego State's defense is going to trump Central Michigan's offense. The Aztec's finished in the top five in the nation in run defense, scoring defense and total defense. SDS held foes to 12.8 points a game. No team reached 24 points on the Aztecs, who also held all but three of their 12 opponents to 85 or fewer rushing yards. Central Michigan was stopped by Miami of Ohio, 26-21, in the MAC title game. San Diego State is a much better defensive team than Miami of Ohio. The Chippewas are 0-5 when rushing for fewer than 135 yards. Wyoming was the lone team to rush for more than 135 yards versus SDS. The Aztecs have enough offense to cover this number. The key for them is they don't turn the ball over averaging just 0.6 per game. San Diego State shouldn't lack motivation either coming off an embarrassing 27-0 loss to Ohio, another MAC team, in last year's Frisco Bowl. SDS also lost two years ago to Army in the Armed Forces Bowl so its seniors should have plenty of incentive. The venue - Albuquerque, N.M. - favors SDS, too. Not only is it closer for SDS fans to travel to but it's in high altitude and the Aztecs have experience playing there having met New Mexico two seasons ago.
12-20-19	Buffalo -4.5 v. Charlotte	Top	31-9	Win	100	263 h 29 m	Show
Buffalo holds key edges in the trenches both in running the ball and stopping the run. The Bulls' Jaret Patterson is one of the best backs in the nation. He rushed for 1,626 yards and accounted for 18 TD's. Charlotte has a good RB, too, in Benny LeMay. The Bulls, though, rank fourth in the nation in stopping the run, while the 49ers are 99th in run defense. Charlotte has failed to cover five of the last seven times it has faced a winning opponent. The 49ers won seven games to qualify for their first bowl game. But six of those victories were achieved against weak team and the other win came against Marshall when the Thundering Herd were in a flat spot. The 49ers are 5-13 ATS the past 18 times playing a team outside of Conference USA. Buffalo played in a bowl game last season. So the Bulls have bowl experience. Charlotte doesn't, which is a huge negative.
12-15-19	Patriots -9 v. Bengals	Top	34-13	Win	100	73 h 26 m	Show
Can the Patriots be beaten for a third straight game? Can the Bengals pull this off? You have to be kidding. Go back to 2002. That's the last time the Patriots lost three in a row. The Patriots have covered 71 percent of the time off a loss during the last 17 years under Bill Belichick going 41-17. The Patriots' last two losses have come to the Texans and Chiefs. The Bengals have the worst record in the NFL. New England has feasted on bottom-feeders posting seven victories by at least 14 points. Cincinnati is the second-lowest scoring team in the NFL averaging 15.2 points a game. Not once have the Bengals scored more than 23 points in a game. New England has the top defense in the NFL giving up the fewest yards, points and yards per play. Cincinnati also ranks second-to-last in total defense, last in rushing defense and gives up the most yards per play. Tom Brady is far more effective when his ground attack is working. New England isn't going to lack motivation either. Not only do the Patriots need to win to maintain a high playoff seeding, but there is bad blood after the the Bengals brought up a new "Spygate" mention to the attention of the NFL.
12-08-19	Seahawks v. Rams +1		12-28	Win	100	98 h 3 m	Show
Under the right circumstances, Jared Goff is a good quarterback. This is the right spot for Goff. He's home in California and the Seahawks don't generate a strong pass rush. Goff has the necessary weapons to light up the Seahawks' mediocre secondary with four quality wide receivers and Todd Gurley. The Seahawks are traveling on a short week after getting past the Vikings at home this past Monday. The Rams have covered five of the last seven times they've hosted Seattle.
12-08-19	Colts +3 v. Bucs		35-38	Push	0	91 h 52 m	Show
Better team getting points. That's it in a nutshell. The Colts also are getting back their best running back, Marlon Mack, and perhaps their top wide receiver, T.Y. Hilton. The Buccaneers are error-prone offensively with Jameis Winston remaining a model of inconsistency.The Bucs also rank 30th in scoring defense giving up 28.8 points a game. The Colts are much more solid in the trenches, too. Indy is 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine road games. Tampa Bay is 2-5-1 ATS the past eight times as a favorite, including 1-3 ATS this season
12-08-19	Dolphins v. Jets -5		21-22	Loss	-105	91 h 49 m	Show
The warm-weather Dolphins enter New York's December weather fat and happy having just upset the Eagles at home. This is a huge revenge game for Adam Gase against his former team. The Jets got caught peeking ahead to this matchup losing to the previously winless Bengals last Sunday. Expect a much more focused effort by the Jets in this game. Before getting upset by the Bengals, the Jets had reeled off three consecutive victories scoring 34 points in each of those games. If they hadn't lost to the Bengals, the line would be much higher. Now it's less than a touchdown. The Jets have the top run defense in the league. Their offense has much been better skill position people than Miami and their offensive line has showed improvement during the second half of the season.
12-08-19	Bengals +10 v. Browns		19-27	Win	100	91 h 46 m	Show
Cincinnati is bad. Cleveland is dysfunctional. Bottom line is this is too many points in a division rivalry game, especially considering the Browns are without their top defensive player, elite pass rusher Myles Garrett, and Baker Mayfield may not be 100 percent due to a sore throwing hand. The Bengals are consistently undervalued on the road. They are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 away contests. Cincinnati's confidence gained a huge boost with a victory against the Jets last Sunday. The Bengals can be counted on to give a full effort and their offense is upgraded with Andy Dalton back under center and speedster John Ross off the injured list.
12-07-19	Georgia +7.5 v. LSU	Top	10-37	Loss	-110	23 h 10 m	Show
I don't see where LSU is a touchdown better than Georgia at a neutral site. George has the better defense and is more experienced in big game neutral site games than LSU. The Bulldogs are 8-1 ATS in their last nine neutral site games. The Bulldogs rank No. 2 in the country in scoring defense giving up 10.4 points a game. They haven't surrendered more than 20 points all season! As good as LSU is offensively, Georgia has the better rushing numbers and gives up 2.7 yards per run, while the Tigers yield 3.8 yards a run. When it comes to passing, Georgia allows 9.6 yards per completion compared to LSU's 13 yards per completion. Georgia needs a victory here to reach the College Football Playoffs, while LSU already is in. So more is at stake for the Bulldogs.
12-07-19	Baylor v. Oklahoma -8.5		23-30	Loss	-110	19 h 18 m	Show
Oklahoma was on the road, playing flat and without its best wide receiver, CeeDee Lamb. This was three weeks ago against upstart Baylor in Waco, Texas. Baylor jumped out to a 25-point lead against the Sooners. Yet Oklahoma still managed to pull out a 34-31 victory. Now the teams meet at a neutral site and Lamb is back healthy. The Sooners have loads of big-game, neutral site title game experience. Baylor doesn't I don't see the Bears being able to hang within single digits of the Sooners especially coming off that recent defeat to Oklahoma. I like Baylor QB Charlie Brewer. But he's not in the class of the Sooners' Jalen Hurts, who could be the best dual threat QB in college with his passing and rushing ability.
12-05-19	Cowboys -2.5 v. Bears	Top	24-31	Loss	-130	26 h 17 m	Show
The Cowboys are the more well-rounded team with far better skill position talent than the Bears. Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliot rate major edges on Mitch Trubisky and David Montgomery. The Bears haven't recovered from their London loss to the Raiders. They are 3-5 in their last eight games with their lone victories during this span coming against the Giants and Lions twice. Those teams have a combined record of 5-18. Trubisky has only played well against the Lions. He's been a stiff against every other opponent. Chicago's defense is down from last season and its offense has been hijacked by Trubisky's lack of progress. Chicago's run defense is prey to Elliott likley missing run-stuffing Akiem Hicks and linebacker Danny Trevathan. The Cowboys are the more motivated team. Dallas is that rare team that rates high in both offensive and defensive yards. The Cowboys average the most yards per game in the NFL and they surrender the eighth-fewest yards.
12-01-19	Patriots -3 v. Texans	Top	22-28	Loss	-110	127 h 56 m	Show
The Patriots' defense is putting up numbers not seen since the 2000 Ravens. I don't see the Texans, with their weak offensive line, lack of a ground attack and poor coaching, being able to solve New England's defense. New England is getting better offensively as more offensive linemen and wide receivers get healthy. The Texans have a slow, banged-up secondary and their pass rush took a massive hit with J.J. Watt sidelined for the season. Bill Belichick has had Bill O'Brien's number. The Patriots are 5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS versus the Texans since 2015. Belichick won't be adverse to running up a score, too. There is bad blood between these two teams after the Patriots filed tampering charges after the Texans tried to lure New England's director of player personnel, Nick Caserio, to be their general manager.
12-01-19	Jets v. Bengals +4		6-22	Win	100	120 h 7 m	Show
The Dolphins scored their first win against the Jets. The winless Bengals can do the same. Cincinnati is much better at QB with Andy Dalton back in the starting role. Left tackle Cordy Glenn is back, too, for Cincinnati to shore up the offensive line. It's an added bonus if A.J. Green finally is ready to make his season debut. The Bengals haven't shown any quit holding the Steelers and Raiders to a combined 33 points the past two weeks, covering both games. Their morale should be up, too, with Dalton back under center. The Jets are in a flat spot traveling after beating up Oakland at home last Sunday. The Jets have won three straight - all against weak opponents in the Giants, Redskins and Raiders with two of those victories coming at home. New York is 1-4 on the road with its lone victory being against the Redskins. The Jets have been outscored by 63 points in their away defeats.
11-30-19	UNLV v. Nevada -7	Top	33-30	Loss	-110	27 h 43 m	Show
Nevada Reno is the superior team, is home and in strong revenge mode after blowing a 23-0 lead to UNLV last season in losing, 34-29, in this annual rivalry matchup. The Wolf Pack eased up in that game and it cost them. That won't be the case this season. Nevada coach Jay Norvell has done everything to fire up his team, including bringing in former Nevada coach Chris Ault to speak to the team. The Wolf Pack should enter this matchup with a lot of confidence having just upset San Diego State and Fresno State both on the road during their past two games. UNLV, by contrast, lost by 29 points at Fresno State and lost by three points to San Diego State at home. UNLV is off an emotional victory against San Jose State. That was the final game played at Sam Boyd Stadium and the Rebels were fired-up for it. Now reality sinks in. The Rebels aren't going to a bowl game for a fifth straight year and coach Tony Sanchez has been fired.
11-28-19	Saints -6.5 v. Falcons	Top	26-18	Win	100	23 h 32 m	Show
The Saints have a legitimate claim to being the best team in the NFC. The Falcons are one of the worst. New Orleans has been great against the spread, too, covering seven of its last nine. One of those non-covers was an embarrassing straight-up home loss to Atlanta from three weeks ago. The Saints were two-touchdown favorites in that game. Now they are just a touchdown favorite. Is the Falcons' home field advantage worth that much? Of course not. The Saints won't have the starting left side of their offensive line with Terron Armstead and Andrus Peat out. But that didn't matter last week when Brees was sacked just twice in 41 dropbacks against the Panthers, who have a stronger pass rush than the Falcons. Brees has a very quick release and tremendous weapons. The Falcons have no answer for Michael Thomas, who is on a record-setting receiving pace. Matt Ryan is dealing with a worse offensive line and is down weapons with Mohamed Sanu traded, Austin Hooper out and backup running back Ito Smith also sidelined. The Falcons probably get back Devonta Freeman, but he's had a disappointing season. Ryan still could be dealing with a sore ankle. He's completed just 57.6 percent of his throws for 6.6 yards per attempt with a three-to-five touchdown-to-turnover ratio during his last four games.
11-28-19	Bills v. Cowboys -6.5		26-15	Loss	-109	51 h 23 m	Show
The visiting team has a huge disadvantage playing on Thursday night especially this late in the season. The Cowboys are the better team and given the situational circumstances, I see Dallas winning by more than a touchdown. Don't be fooled by Buffalo's 8-3 record. It's bogus. The Bills have played opponents whose combined record is 19-53. They haven't faced an offense the caliber of Dallas. The Bills rank third versus the pass, but are just average versus the run. That makes them vulnerable to Ezekiel Elliott. He should be in line for a big game, which in turn would make Dak Prescott very effective picking his spots. Prescott has three quality wideouts plus Elliott out of the backfield catching passes. Buffalo lacks explosiveness on offense to keep up. The Cowboys rank in the top-seven in total defense and scoring defense. They are extremely well-coached on the defensive side of the ball. I wouldn't be surprised to see Josh Allen make a lot of mistakes in this matchup.
11-28-19	Bears -2.5 v. Lions	Top	24-20	Win	100	57 h 14 m	Show
The Bears have been a major disappointment this season. But the Lions are in worse shape. Detroit has dropped four in a row. The teams just met three weeks ago and Chicago won, 20-13. The Lions didn't have Matthew Stafford in that game and they won't have him Thursday. The Lions also aren't going to have second-stringer Jeff Driskel either. Driskel hurt his hamstring in the Lions' loss to the Redskins this past Sunday. So the Lions are forced to turn to rookie David Blough. He's never taken an NFL snap. Hopefully, you locked into this game early in the week like I did in anticipation of upward line movement. Even if you didn't, though, this is a kill spot for the Bears. Their defense should overwhelm the overmatched Blough. Chicago's defense ranks fourth in fewest points allowed and in fewest yards allowed. The Lions' defense, by contrast, ranks 29th in total yards and 26th in scoring defense. The Bears surrender 81 fewer yards per game than the Lions and nine fewer points a game. The Bears' biggest problem is Mitchell Trubisky. He plays well, though, against the Lions. Trubisky completed 16 of 23 passes for 173 yards and three touchdowns in the earlier victory against the Lions. Trubisky faced the Lions once last season and passed for 355 yards and three touchdowns in a 34-22 win.
11-25-19	Ravens v. Rams +4	Top	45-6	Loss	-115	10 h 14 m	Show
Lamar Jackson and the Ravens are a hot commodity. The Rams are struggling to make the playoffs at 6-4. The combination makes the Rams a good value play. LA has the defense, coaching smarts and offense to win this game straight-up. Oh, yes, the situation is perfect for them, too. Jared Goff is a quarterback you don't want to touch on the road especially in cold weather. But he and the Rams offense are a different animal at home especially against a defense that doesn't apply that much quarterback heat. Goff has all his receiving weapons back, too, with deep threat Brandin Cooks expected to play. The Rams have four quality wideouts plus Todd Gurley in the backfield. The Rams defense is strong with Jalen Ramsey shoring up the secondary and Aaron Donald having another dominating season in the trenches. Wade Phillips is in the argument for being the top defensive coordinator in the NFL. This is a unit that can control Jackson.
11-24-19	Steelers v. Bengals +7		16-10	Win	100	92 h 7 m	Show
No, I don't like being on the Bengals. But laying this many points on the road with the punchless Steelers is much worse. Pittsburgh has a strong defense, playoff-caliber. But the Steelers aren't going to reach the postseason because Mason Rudolph is a stiff. Rudolph needs weapons and he's not going to have them here. Center Maurkice Pouncey is suspended. JuJu Smith-Schuster, Pitt's No. 1 wideout by far, is injured and won't play. I doubt James Conner, the Steelers' No. 1 runner, plays either. He missed last week and remains banged-up. Even when they had Ben Roethlisberger healthy, the Steelers still were bad on the road. They are 1-6 in their last seven road games, including 1-3 this season. The Steelers have the lowest road scoring percentage of possessions in the NFL. The Bengals should play hard trying to get their first win, being home and facing a much hated division opponent. So taking this many points looms large especially given the low total in this matchup.
11-24-19	Raiders v. Jets +3	Top	3-34	Win	100	92 h 6 m	Show
Jon Gruden has improved the Raiders this season. But he hasn't improved Oakland enough where it can cover as a road favorite in a flat spot like this. The Raiders are traveling cross-country for an early West Coast start time. Up next for Oakland is an AFC West showdown against the Chiefs. Under Gruden, the Raiders have failed to cover in eight of 12 away matchups. The Raiders need to establish a balanced attack. The Jets do one thing extremely well - stop the run ranking No. 1 in the NFL giving up fewer than 80 yards per game. Saquan Barkley managed just one yard on 13 carries against the Jets. That does not bode well for Josh Jacobs. Oakland is vulnerable through the air ranking 27th in pass defense. Sam Darnold has started to play better and has good receiving targets to take advantage. The Jets' strengths match up well to Oakland and New York also is in the superior situational spot.
11-23-19	Washington v. Colorado +14.5	Top	14-20	Win	100	57 h 47 m	Show
This high line might be justified from a Washington point of view if this were last season and if the Huskies cared about this game. But it's not. Washington is down from the past couple of seasons. The Huskies have the third-best defense in the Pac-12. Certainly that's good by ordinary standards, but not by Washington standards. The Huskies had led the Pac-12 in the key defensive categories during the previous four seasons. Colorado has receiving weapons for experienced QB Steven Montez with Laviska Shenault, Tony Brown and K.D. Nixon. Shenault is one of the top wideouts in the nation. The Huskies already have a bowl spot secured with their 6-4 record. They have a look-ahead spot with their traditional season-ending game against Washington State next week. The Buffaloes are in must-win mode if they want to stay alive for a bowl berth. They have played better at home going 3-2 ATS posting straight-up victories against Nebraska and Stanford. Colorado lost by four points to USC as 10 1/2-point home 'dogs.
11-23-19	Texas +6 v. Baylor	Top	10-24	Loss	-110	22 h 21 m	Show
It may take more than a week for Baylor to get over its choke job against Oklahoma. The Sooners rallied from 25 points down to beat the Bears last week ending Baylor's hopes of an unbeaten season. Baylor doesn't even need to win this game to earn a rematch with the Sooners in the Big 12 title game. All the Bears have to do to accomplish that is defeat Kansas in their regular season finale. Texas has had a disappointing season. But the Longhorns still have an outside chance of a conference title plus a strong bowl game if they win their final two regular season games. The Longhorns are at their most dangerous in an underdog role thanks to Tom Herman. He's the premier underdog coach in CFB. Herman coached Houston for two years before going to Texas. The Cougars were 5-0 ATS as 'dogs under Herman. The Longhorns are 10-4 ATS when getting points in three years under Herman. So Herman's combined head coaching record against the spread as an underdog is 15-4 (79 percent)! I like Baylor QB Charlie Brewer. But I like Texas QB Sam Ehlinger even more. Texas has defeated Baylor the past four times the teams have met, including 23-17 last season and 38-7 in Waco two years ago.
11-23-19	Michigan v. Indiana +10		39-14	Loss	-110	49 h 58 m	Show
Michigan's biggest game of its season always is Ohio State. It's one of the top rivalries in the nation and the best one in the Big Ten. The Wolverines host the Buckeyes next week. That puts them in a dangerous look-ahead spot here against Indiana. It's also a Big Ten Conference sandwich spot for the Wolverines as they just whipped their hated in-state rival, Michigan State, at home this past Saturday. The Wolverines are 1-4 ATS the last five years in their previous game before Ohio State, including failing to cover the last three seasons in this spot. Indiana is much improved. The Hoosiers reached the Top 25 for the first time since 1994 before suffering a 34-27 road loss to Penn State last week. Indiana covered that game and is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games. Michigan hasn't beaten Indiana on the road by more than seven points in its last three visits. The Hoosiers are averaging 33.3 points. They have the offense to stay within single digits of the Wolverines at home again especially considering Michigan's negative scheduling dynamics.
11-23-19	BYU v. UMass +40.5		56-24	Win	100	26 h 10 m	Show
BYU just isn't good enough to lay this kind of number especially on the road with an early East Coast start time and being in a letdown spot following four consecutive victories. UMass is one of the worst teams in college football. But the Minutemen are capable of putting up points. They average 28.2 points at home. The Minutemen haven't played a home game in three weeks. This is their final game of the season so an effort should be forthcoming.
11-17-19	Bengals +11.5 v. Raiders		10-17	Win	100	117 h 50 m	Show
I get that the Bengals remain the only winless team in the NFL and that their new QB, Ryan Finley, isn't even as good as Andy Dalton. But the Raiders aren't a team to lay this high of a number. Only once during the Jon Gruden era have the Raiders won a game by more than eight points. Oakland is in a flat spot, too, having narrowly won a huge home division game against the Chargers last week. This is the Raiders' third home game in a row. Finley could prove better now that he's had a start. He's going against the league's 30th-ranked pass defense. The Raiders are down their three best players in the secondary with safety Karl Joseph out with a foot injury. Earlier they lost safety Jonathan Abram to injury and traded cornerback Gareon Conley. It's a huge added bonus if the Bengals finally get the services of star wide receiver A.J. Green and offensive left tackle Cordy Glenn for the first time this season. The Bengals have been money-makers on the road covering in seven of their last nine road contests.
11-17-19	Jets +1.5 v. Redskins		34-17	Win	100	114 h 31 m	Show
The Jets do one thing exceptionally well and that's stop the run. They rank No. 2 in rush defense. The Redskins have become totally reliant on a ground-and-pound approach under interim coach Bill Callahan. That means heavy duty work for 34-year-old Adrian Peterson. This might be a sound approach - if it were 2012. Washington is force-feeding not-ready QB Dwayne Haskins. This reminds me of what the Browns experienced during their winless 2017 season when they kept trotting out overmatched DeShone Kizer at QB. The Jets have the superior skill position players. Sam Darnold is off to a slow start in this his second season. However, he still rates a strong edge on Haskins.
11-16-19	LSU v. Ole Miss +21.5	Top	58-37	Win	100	28 h 53 m	Show
Huge letdown spot here for LSU after the Tigers' great SEC showdown victory over Alabama last week. That effort was both physically and emotionally draining for the Tigers. If you discount its loss to Alabama, Mississippi has lost five games by an average of 6.6 points. The Rebels played both Texas A&M and Auburn close. Mississippi ranks No. 1 in the SEC and 13th nationally in rushing. Rebels freshman QB John Rhys Plumlee is a dual threat. He leads the team in rushing. LSU QB Joe Burrow can't produce points if his offense is on the bench watching Mississippi control clock with its ground attack.
11-16-19	Navy v. Notre Dame -7	Top	20-52	Win	100	23 h 29 m	Show
I'm going to fade the line movement. The marketplace is overthinking this matchup by their heavy play on Navy. Notre Dame has won 16 in a row at home. The Irish have played a tougher schedule than Navy and beat them, 44-22, last season as 21 1/2-point favorites at a neutral site. This is the last ranked regular season opponent Notre Dame faces. So the Irish won't lack motivation. Navy actually has a bigger game on deck with a first-place showdown in the American Athletic Conference West Division playing at home against SMU.
11-11-19	Seahawks +6 v. 49ers	Top	27-24	Win	100	174 h 14 m	Show
Russell Wilson is the best QB in the NFL right now. I want Wilson going for me with this many points on the Monday Night Football center stage. Seattle has covered the last eight times it has been an underdog, including both times this season. The 49ers are the most improved team in the league. But now they have the bullseye and pressure on them to only win, but cover margins, too. They lack Seattle's prime time big-game experience and record. The Seahawks are well-balanced with a respectable ground attack and now three dangerous wide receiving targets for Wilson with Josh Gordon joining Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf. San Francisco suffered an unsung defensive injury with linebacker Kwon Alexander out for the year with a torn pec muscle. Alexander was the 49ers' second-leading tackler. The 49ers also have been missing their starting offensive tackles and star tight end George Kittle is doubtful. Seattle has dominated this series winning 10 of the past 11 meetings going 7-3-1 ATS.
11-10-19	Chiefs v. Titans +6.5		32-35	Win	100	20 h 40 m	Show
I'm taking the underdog Titans fully expecting Patrick Mahomes to play. If Mahomes doesn't, or is limited from his knee injury after being out just two weeks, so much for the better but I'm not counting on that. Instead I'm backing the Titans based on their merit, style of play and situation. The Titans are solid defensively. They've given up the sixth-fewest points per game in the NFL. Kansas City doesn't have an outstanding offensive line. Andy Reid is going to have to be more conservative in Mahomes' first game back from injury. This is a huge game for the Titans. They are two games behind in the AFC South Division and have a bye next week. Ryan Tannehill has been an upgrade on Marcus Mariota. The key, though, is the running of Derrick Henry. He's a powerful inside runner, who has a history of playing his best during November and December. The Chiefs rank 29th versus the run, surrendering 180 or more rushing yards four times this year. The Titans can maintain ball-control because of Henry keeping the Chiefs' high-octane offense off the field.
11-10-19	Falcons +14.5 v. Saints		26-9	Win	100	20 h 31 m	Show
The Saints are 7-1 fat and happy. The Falcons are 1-7 despondent and desperate. It's a division rivalry. The Falcons are off a bye and have Matt Ryan back. That's enough to get me involved taking two touchdowns. Atlanta actually averages more yards per game than New Orleans. Thanks to Ryan, who is having an excellent season, the Falcons lead the NFL in passing. Ryan has dangerous weapons with Julio Jones - who is in the argument for best wideout in the league - Calvin Ridley, Devonta Freeman and tight end Austin Hopper. Only once this season have the Saints won by more than 11 points. This should be a shooout and the Falcons have backdoor capabilities.
11-09-19	Iowa v. Wisconsin -9		22-24	Loss	-105	26 h 9 m	Show
Wisconsin wasn't as good as advertised when it steamrolled its first six opponents by an average of 38 points. But the Badgers aren't as bad as they looked in a 38-7 loss to Ohio State two weeks ago and in letting themselves get upset by Illinois before that game in an obvious look-ahead spot to Ohio State. The Badgers had a much needed bye last week. I see a regrouped Badgers squad taking care of Iowa at home. Wisconsin is 16-5 ATS following a bye. Both teams are tough defensively. The difference is Wisconsin has a stud RB in Jonathan Taylor, who I consider the best RB in the country. Iowa ranks 94th in scoring offense averaging only 24.4 points a game. The Hawkeyes could be minus star offensive lineman Alaric Jackson, too. Wisconsin has won the last three in the series.
11-09-19	Stanford -3 v. Colorado		13-16	Loss	-110	26 h 22 m	Show
Stanford is a much better team now that QB K.J. Costello is back from a thumb injury. The Cardinal have a balanced attack with Costello, who has the skill set to find his second and third targets. Stanford also is in the hunt to become bowl eligible for the 11th consecutive season. The Cardinal can't afford to slip here. I don't they will given Colorado's woes. The Buffaloes entered the season with a great deal of optimism under first-year coach Mel Tucker. That's gone now. The Buffaloes have underachieved offensively scoring 14 or fewer points in three of their last four games and their defense has falled apart due to attriution and injuries. Colorado ranks second-to-last in the Pac-12 in scoring defense allowing 34.4 points.
11-09-19	East Carolina v. SMU -21		51-59	Loss	-108	23 h 14 m	Show
Kill spot for SMU here off a six-point road loss to Memphis. This is the Mustangs' homecoming game and they need a victory to stay in the AAC hunt. East Carolina is a patsy. The Pirates' lone victories were against Gardner-Webb, Old Dominion and William & Mary. The Pirates played extremely hard against Cincinnati last week nearly pulling off an upset before losing, 46-43, as 25-point home 'dogs. That loss eliminated East Carolina from any hope of earning a bowl bid. The Pirates are likely to be deflated and don't have the offense, averaging fewer than 24 points a game, to keep pace with the Mustangs.
11-03-19	Patriots -3 v. Ravens		20-37	Loss	-103	54 h 28 m	Show
Don't overthink this. Just ride New England until proven otherwise. The Patriots have covered 71 percent of their last 65 games! Bill Belichick should enter the Hall of Fame just on that number alone. A lot is being made of the Patriots going up against the most dangerous dual-threat QB in the NFL in second-year man Lamar Jackson. Turn it around, though. Jackson is going up against a Patriots defense that could be Belichick's all-time best. The Patriots are surrendering an NFL-low 7.6 points per game. They rank No. 2 in totals yards and passing yards. New England has intercepted at least one pass in each game and rank first in interceptions and sacks. Oh, yes, the Patriots have won the last 21 times they've gone against a first or second-year QB. John Harbaugh has been tough following a bye. The Ravens, however, haven't been a strong home team failing to cover in their past six home contests.
11-03-19	Bucs +6 v. Seahawks		34-40	Push	0	50 h 15 m	Show
Tampa Bay can pass the ball effectively and stop the run. Those are two key components when taking on the Seahawks. Seattle is heavily run-oriented. The Buccaneers give up just 68.6 yards rushing, best in the NFL. Tampa Bay's pass rush is upgraded, too, with the return of Jason Pierre-Paul. He'll team up with NFC sacks leader Shaq Barrett. Jameis Winston has strong receiving weapons. Seattle ranks 27th in pass defense and has injuries with safeties Tedric Thompson and newly acquired Quandre Diggs out. The Seahawks have only three sacks in their past four games. The Buccaneers have proven dangerous as road 'dogs already knocking off the Panthers and Rams. Seattle has failed to cover the past four times it has been a home favorite, including nearly losing to the Bengals and falling by 14 points to the Ravens two games ago.
11-03-19	Redskins v. Bills -9	Top	9-24	Win	100	48 h 4 m	Show
The Redskins are averaging 8.5 points in their last six games. They may get shut out by a strong and angry Bills defense that is coming off an embarrassing, 31-13, home loss to the Eagles last Sunday. Before that game, the Bills had held five of their first six foes to 17 points or fewer. I see Buffalo's defense rebounding in big fashion against rookie QB Dwayne Haskins, who is in line to make his first NFL start. Jay Gruden was right about Haskins in that the first-year QB isn't nearly ready. Haskins has a 34.5 passer rating with four interceptions in two cameo appearances. The Bills should stack the line to stop ancient Adrian Peterson forcing Haskins to make plays, which I don't see him doing. The Bills are very alive to come up with a pick-six or two. The Bills don't have a good offense. But Josh Allen can make plays with his feet and Buffalo should be operating from outstanding field position. The Bills do own two double-digit victories this season.
11-03-19	Jets -3 v. Dolphins		18-26	Loss	-119	48 h 34 m	Show
The Jets have looked bad lately facing two strong defenses, New England and Jacksonville. Now, though, the Jets are stepping all the way down in class. The Dolphins have the worst personnel in the NFL and they just lost one of their few good players in Pro Bowl cornerback Xavien Howard. The Jets have far more talent than the Dolphins. If there is one team Jets coach Adam Gase does not want to lose to it's his former team the Dolphins. Gase should know the Dolphins - or what is left of them - well having been Miami's head coach the previous three seasons. Miami is home, but on a short week having exerted a mental and physical effort in a Monday night road loss to the Steelers. All of Miami's losses, except the one to the Redskins, have been by double-digits.
11-02-19	UAB +12.5 v. Tennessee		7-30	Loss	-109	43 h 24 m	Show
Look I get that Alabama Birmingham's 6-1 record is deceiving being littered by beating patsies. But I don't think Tennessee is that good with its three-headed QB monster running an offense that ranks 103rd in yards. The Blazers defense is impressive regardless ranking No. 8 in run defense and 11th in points allowed at just 15.7 per game. None of the Blazers' opponents have scored more than 20 points on them. UAB has a balanced attack. QB Tyler Johston III has thrown for 260 or more yards in five of the Blazers' last six games. Tennessee is in a letdown spot after its big win against South Carolina last week. The Volunteers don't have a good track record at home failing to cover in 15 of their last 21 home games. UAB has been a strong money-maker going 25-10-1 ATS in its last 36 games.
11-02-19	Kansas State v. Kansas +6.5	Top	38-10	Loss	-115	55 h 55 m	Show
Kansas is one of the most improved teams in the nation under Les Miles. The Jayhawks have posted upsets of Boston College and Texas Tech while nearly knocking off Texas losing at the gun. The Jayhawks' offense has picked up under offensive coordinator Brent Dearmon with Carter Stanley one of the more underrated QB's in the country. Kansas is ready to spring another upset, this time against arch-rival Kansas State. The Wildcats have dominated this series winning the last 10 times. The Jayhawks hung tough against the Wildcats last season on the road, losing 21-17. Now the Jayhawks are home, vastly improved, riding some confidence and catch the Wildcats in a letdown spot. Kansas State just pulled off a monster upset of Oklahoma last Saturday as a 23 1/2-point home 'dog. This is the Wildcats' first road game in four weeks and only their third road game of the season.
10-31-19	West Virginia v. Baylor -17.5	Top	14-17	Loss	-110	32 h 19 m	Show
This matchup sets up well for Baylor coming off a bye. Baylor is very solid on both sides of the ball and is running hot with seven straight wins. West Virginia is at low ebb losing three in a row, being outscored in those games, 132-59, by Texas, Iowa State and Oklahoma State. Those are all good Big 12 teams. But so is unbeaten 11th-ranked Baylor. The Bears have the third-best scoring offense in the Big 12. The Bears have depth at running back, a receiving threat in Denzel Mims and dual threat quarterback Charlie Brewer knows how to take care of the ball. If you discount the Texas Tech game, Brewer hasn't thrown an interception all season. Brewer will be operating against a depleted West Virginia defense that gives up the most points in the Big 12 and just lost linebacker Josh Chandler to a knee injury.
10-27-19	Packers v. Chiefs +4.5	Top	31-24	Loss	-110	45 h 14 m	Show
OK, Patrick Mahomes isn't going to play. But the Chiefs are far from dead without Mahomes especially as a home 'dog in this price range. We can all agree Arrowhead Stadium is one of the tougher road venues. There should be unanimous agreement, too, that Andy Reid is an elite coach dangerous with extra prep time, which the Chiefs have from playing last Thursday. Veteran Matt Moore is one of the better backups in the league. I respect Moore because he throws downfield where many backups don't have the skill set to do anything except game manage and checkdown. Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill provide Moore with a top-two tight end and perhaps the premier deep threat in the league. This is just Green Bay's second road game in seven weeks. Aaron Rodgers has a career losing road record and isn't expected to have his top wide receiver, injured Davonte Adams.
10-27-19	Broncos v. Colts -4	Top	13-15	Loss	-115	38 h 25 m	Show
If the Broncos thought they could make a successful run with Joe Flacco at quarterback they were sadly delusional. It took a 30-6 home loss to the Chiefs last Thursday to figure that out. Now, at 2-5, the Broncos know they are dead. Only seven teams during the last 40 years have made the postseason after opening 2-5. Emmmanuel Sanders, Denver's best wideout, got traded. Others are likely to follow before Tuesday's trade deadline concludes. Unless Dwayne Haskins becomes the Redskins new first-stringer, Flacco is the worst starting QB in the NFL. And Garett Bolles may be the worst offensive left tackle in the league. It's a lethal combination that sinks the Broncos' popgun offense that has failed to break 16 points in five of their seven games. The Broncos' defense is good, but not great. Certainly it's not nearly strong enough to carry such a putrid offense. The Colts have proven time after time under Frank Reich that they are legitimate. Indy's defense has back it's best playmaker, linebacker Darius Leonard, and top defensive back in free safety Malik Hooker. The Colts are balanced on offense with Jacoby Brissett coming off a confidence-building four-touchdown performance in a 30-23 home win against Houston last Sunday. When you factor in home field advantage and the Colts being without a major weakness, this line comes up short.
10-27-19	Eagles +2.5 v. Bills		31-13	Win	100	37 h 45 m	Show
The records show 5-1 and 3-4. But it's the Bills who are the 5-1 team. Buffalo has a very solid defense. The Bills' offense scares no one, though. Buffalo has built its record by beating the Jets, Giants, Bengals, Titans and Dolphins. Combined record of those teams is 6-27. None of those foes is above .500. The Eagles opened 3-2 before losing consecutive road games to the Vikings and Cowboys. Philly was outmatched in those games. The Eagles won't be here. They also won't lack motivation after a humiliating national TV loss to the Cowboys unlike the Bills, who are fat and happy. Buffalo is heavily run-oriented. Bills second-year QB Josh Allen is turnover-prone. The Eagles have gotten healthier in the secondary and rank seventh in rush defense. They've been tough on every running back except superstar Ezekiel Elliott.
10-27-19	Jets +7.5 v. Jaguars		15-29	Loss	-140	37 h 38 m	Show
The Jets aren't as good as they looked in beating the Cowboys two weeks ago. But they also aren't as befuddled as they looked this past Monday against the Patriots. New York's season stats are skewed because of the three games Luke Falk started. The Jets are much better with Sam Darnold behind center. The only ghost Darnold is going to see is the ghost of departed Jaguars cornerback Jalen Ramsey. Jacksonville's defense isn't as good without Ramsey, their top defensive back, and injured lineman Marcell Dareus. Jacksonville also is banged up at linebacker. Darnold has gone against the Bills, in a game the Jets lost by one point, Cowboys and Patriots. The Jaguars aren't as good as those teams. I fail to see the publicity match the skill set with Jaguars QB Gardner Minshew. He's thrown one TD pass in his last two games while failing to complete even half of his passes in those two games.
10-27-19	Giants +7 v. Lions		26-31	Win	100	37 h 32 m	Show
It seemed for a brief moment that the Lions might be better than mediocre this season. That moment has flickered away. The Lions are who they always have been - poorly coached, bad on defense, unable to run and adept at blowing leads. The Giants need to protect Daniel Jones better, but they don't lack for skill position weapons headed by the electrifying Saquan Barkley. He's in line for a huge game going against a beat-up Lions defense line that has injuries to Damon Harrison, Da'Shawn Hand and Mike Daniels. The Lions also are without their top cornerback, injured Darius Slay, and traded away safety Quandre Diggs. The Lions lack the pass rush to protect their now undermanned secondary. Detroit has yielded 430 or more yards in each of its last three games, the first time the Lions have done that in 11 years. The Lions' largest victory margin this season is three points. The Giants have covered eight of the last 10 times as a road 'dog. New York's defense can key on the pass as the Lions also lost their top running back, Kerryon Johnson.
10-26-19	Arizona State v. UCLA +3.5		32-42	Win	100	32 h 12 m	Show
UCLA is getting better. The Bruins are 2-1-1 ATS in their last four games, including SU road victories against Washington State and Stanford. The Bruins have improved their defense, allowing 366 yards per game during their last three games, and getting better QB play. Star running back Joshua Kelley is healthy again, too. Arizona State has been getting worse. The Sun Devils are coming off a lackluster 21-3 loss to Utah. UCLA has played a tougher schedule than Arizona State. The Sun Devils' early season win against Michigan State doesn't look so impressive now given the Spartans' woes. This has been an extremely tight series. The Sun Devils nipped UCLA, 31-28, last year. The Bruins are better than they were last season. I see them getting revenge at home.
10-26-19	Texas Tech -4.5 v. Kansas		34-37	Loss	-108	32 h 14 m	Show
Kansas is much improved under Les Miles. But the Jayhawks still have a long rebuild and this spot sets up great for Texas Tech. The Red Raiders are coming off a tough 34-24 home loss to Iowa State. They can't afford a loss to Kansas in their quest to make a bowl game. The Red Raiders have plenty of firepower and should give the Jayhawks their best effort. Kansas, on the other hand, is in a letdown spot after nearly upsetting Texas in one of its best performances of the past few years. The Jayhawks had rallied several times to lead, but lost on a field goal at the gun, 50-48. Kansas played its guts out and it's going to be difficult for the Jayhaws to match that performance physically and emotionally. Texas Tech has dominated this series winning the past nine times while going 7-2 ATS. The Red Raiders' average win in this span has been by 24 points. Texas Tech has defeated Kansas by an average of 38 points during the last three years. The gap has narrowed. But not enough and the situation lays out well for the Red Raiders.
10-26-19	Auburn +11 v. LSU		20-23	Win	100	28 h 34 m	Show
LSU hasn't faced a defense nearly this good all season. Auburn gives up just 17.1 points per game. That ranks 16th in the nation. Auburn also is 11th in run defense with its NFL-caliber defensive line. Auburn freshman QB Bo Nix is getting better. He's surrounded by strong pieces. LSU plays Alabama in its next game. So the Tigers have to guard against getting ahead of themselves. Not so with Auburn, which needs this game to keep in contention to win the Western Division portion of the SEC. Auburn has covered seven of its last eight games. This should be a highly competitive game just like the past three, which were decided by 1, 4 and 5 points.
10-26-19	Illinois v. Purdue -9.5	Top	24-6	Loss	-106	41 h 45 m	Show
Congrats to Illinois on pulling off the season's biggest upset with its 24-23 home victory against sixth-ranked Wisconsin last Saturday. The Illini were 28 1/2-point underdogs. It was the first time Illinois had defeated a ranked team in eight years. I'm not a fan of Illinois coach Lovie Smith, though, and I don't see the Illini being ready to go on the road to take on a frustrated Purdue team that has dominated them recently. This is the mother of all letdown spots for Illinois. Purdue has lost its quarterback, Elijah Sindelar, and star wide receiver Rondale Moore to injuries. However, backup QB Jack Plummer is showing steady improvement, the Boilermakers still have good receiving depth - including an excellent pass-catching tight end in Brycen Hopkins - and an edge in coaching with Jeff Brohm. Illinois could be missing its leading pass receiver, Ricky Smalling, and defensive end Oluwole Betiku, who ranks among the nation leaders in sacks. Both were injured against Wisconsin. The Boilermakers have beaten the Illini each of the last three years, including 46-7 on the road last season and 29-10 two years ago.
10-24-19	SMU v. Houston +14.5	Top	34-31	Win	100	18 h 24 m	Show
These are heady times for SMU. The Mustangs are 7-0 for the first time in 37 years and ranked 16th in the AP's Top 25 poll. That's the highest the Mustangs have been rated since 1985. The combination of that and the perception that Houston is a dead team after losing outright as 21-point road favorites to lowly Connecticut last week push this line to the two-touchdown mark. I'm stepping in at this point. Houston still has bowl aspirations. The Cougars also should get back QB Clayton Tune. He's a big upgrade on third-stringer Logan Holgorsen, who was behind center against Connecticut. Tune didn't play in that huge upset because of a hamstring injury. He is practicing this week and expected to play. The Cougars rank 22nd in rushing. They have the capability to play ball control preventing SMU's high octane offense from taking the field. This also is a big in-state rivalry and has recruting ramifications. The Cougars have revenge motivation, too. They were ranked 17th in the country when SMU beat them last season as 14-point home 'dogs.
10-21-19	Patriots v. Jets +10.5	Top	33-0	Loss	-130	121 h 7 m	Show
The Jets are a much different - and better - team with Sam Darnold at QB. They should be mentally ready to take on the Patriots off a confidence-building home victory against the Cowboys last week. Statistically speaking, the Patriots have the best defense in the NFL. Darnold has weapons, though, with Le'Veon Bell, deep threat Robbie Anderson and much underrated slot man Jamison Crowder. The Patriots' offense hasn't been that sharp. This has largely gone unnoticed because their defense has been so good and because of an easy schedule. New England, however, is banged up at wide receiver, deficient at tight end and weak at the offensive tackle spots. The Jets should be up for this game more than any other matchup all season being against their most hated division rival and at home on Monday night.
10-20-19	Eagles +3 v. Cowboys		10-37	Loss	-114	97 h 9 m	Show
Why the Eagles? Better team getting points especially with Dallas not playing well losing to the Jets and Packers, who scored the first 24 points in that game. The Cowboys are dealing with key injuries. Both of Dallas' starting offensive tackles have been out the last couple of weeks. The Cowboys rely on Ezekiel Elliott to produce yardage on the ground, but the Eagles rank second in run defense. Dak Prescott isn't that effective in the air without his top wideout, Amari Cooper, who isn't expected to play. The Cowboys also could be minus their top cornerback, Byron Jones. He's dealing with a hamstring injury. The Eagles, on the other hand, are getting healthier as several of their cornerbacks could play after being out. This has been a road series with the visitor covering 11 of the last 15 times.
10-20-19	Saints v. Bears -3		36-25	Loss	-120	93 h 15 m	Show
I want the Bears going for me at home having had two weeks to stew about their embarrassing loss to the Raiders in London. The Saints are overdue for a loss. They are 5-1 with an average winning margin of 4.8 points. They have outscored their opponents by just six points in six games. Teddy Bridgewater is a game manager. He needs weapons. Unfortunately for New Orleans, Alvin Kamara is dealing with an ankle injury that may cause him to miss this game if not limit his effectiveness. The Bears are in the argument for having the best defense in football. This also is an off-surface for the Saints, who play on turf indoors not outdoors on grass.
10-20-19	Raiders v. Packers -5		24-42	Win	100	90 h 47 m	Show
Kudos to the Raiders for maybe putting forth their best effort ever under Jon Gruden in upsetting the Bears two weeks ago in London. But I'm not sold on Oakland especially when playing away from home, which they will be doing for the fourth straight time. The Raiders are 3-8 SU, 4-7 ATS when not playing in Oakland under Gruden. It's easy to remember the Raiders' stirring performance across the pond. But earlier they were smashed, 34-14, by the Vikings on the road. Green Bay defeated the Vikings at home earlier this season. This is an early start time, too, for the Raiders. They are 1-6 SU and ATS the past seven times when playing at 10 a.m. PDT. All of those losses have been by at least seven points. Aaron Rodgers doesn't need Davante Adams to beat Oakland. Obviously it's a nice plus if Adams is over his toe injury that has caused him to miss the last two games. Rodgers, though, is an elite QB with a monster edge on Derek Carr, who is far more of a dink-and-dunker than gunslinger and lacks receiving weapons. Green Bay's defense is one of the most improved units in football ranking ninth in fewest points allowed. The Raiders average less than two sacks per game, are penalty prone and give up nearly 25 points a game.
10-20-19	Cardinals v. Giants -3	Top	27-21	Loss	-100	90 h 46 m	Show
The Giants are home, have a huge scheduling advantage and get back Saquan Barkley and Evan Engram. Barkley is a top-three running back and I rate Engram as a top-five tight end. The Cardinals have a porous defense ranking among the bottom-four in several key statistical categories, including yards allowed, points and pass defense. The return of cornerback Patrick Peterson from suspension is a plus for the Cardinals, but doesn't move the needle nearly enough. The Cardinals are coming off a 34-33 home victory against the Falcons. The Cardinals achieved the victory when normally reliable veteran Matt Bryant missed an extra point after the Falcons scored a touchdown with less than two minutes left. The Cardinals nipped the Bengals at the gun on a field gun two weeks ago. The Falcons and Bengals are a combined 1-11. The spread would be much higher here if the Cardinals held a 0-5-1 mark instead of a far more respectable 2-3-1 record. This also is Arizona's longest trip of the season and it's at an early West Coast start time. The Cardinals are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 Eastern Standard Time games. The Giants are on extra rest having played last Thursday.
10-20-19	Jaguars -4 v. Bengals		27-17	Win	100	9 h 18 m	Show
If the NFL draft were to take place today it would not be the Miami Dolphins picking first. Instead it would be the Bengals because they have the worst record in the NFL at 0-6. The Bengals aren't tanking, but they are as bad as Miami. Cincinnati ranks last in rushing and last in stopping the run. On top of this, the Bengals have cluster injury situations in their offensive line and secondary with both starting cornerbacks out. A.J. Green, their best wideout, remains sidelined. Some regard the Saints as the best team in the NFC. Yet the Jaguars were nearly a field goal favorite against New Orleans last week. The Jaguars are slightly more than a field goal favorite against the Bengals. Doesn't make sense. Yes, the Jaguars were home against the Saints. Cincinnati, though, has a minimal home field edge. The Jaguars have an above average defense. That's without star cornerback Jalen Ramsey, who missed the past three games. Ramsey getting traded could help the Jaguars' morale. He certainly won't be a distraction anymore. Jacksonville needs this game being two games out of first in the wide open AFC South Division. In their last five games, the Jaguars have defeated the Broncos and Titans while losing on the road to the Texans by one point and by seven to the Panthers. Jacksonville fell to the Saints by seven points at home last Sunday. The Jaguars are at their best when Leonard Fournette is gashing defenses. Fournette is having his best season averaging 5.1 yards a carry and ranking No. 2 in the AFC in rushing. The Bengals have allowed half of their opponents to rush for at least 250 yards. An effective Fournette sets up Gardner Minshew's play action passes. On top of all their injuries, the Bengals' defense carries a high fatigue rating. They were on the field for nearly 40 minutes and more than 80 snaps against the Ravens last week.
10-19-19	Kansas +21.5 v. Texas	Top	48-50	Win	100	32 h 50 m	Show
This line might make sense - it it were last year. Les Miles has made Kansas far more respectable. But even before Miles came on board the Jayhawks have given Texas trouble. The Longhorns defeated the Jayhawks, 24-17, last year failing to cover as 15 1/2-point road favorites. Texas beat Kansas by 15 points at home two seasons ago failing to cover as 32-point favorites and three years ago the Jayhawks stunned the Longhorns, 24-21, as 23 1/2-point home 'dogs. Kansas had a bye last week. The Jayhawks draw the Longhorns after Texas just had its annual Red River Shootout against arch-rival Oklahoma. The Longhorns are at TCU next week. So the spot clearly favors Kansas. Sam Ehlinger is one of the best QB's in the country. But I see the Jayhawks having the weapons to hang with Texas especially since the Longhorns have multiple defensive injuries. The Longhorns are giving up 453.3 yards per game, which ranks 111th. They have permitted an average of 31.6 points in their three Big 12 games. Kansas senior QB Carter Stanley ranks among the top 10 QB's statistically in Kansas history. He should be helped by a switch in offensive coordinators that has a more aggressive approach. Stanley has a pair of capable WR's in Andrew Parchment and Stephon Robinson Jr. plus one of the best running backs in the conference, Pooka Williams.
10-19-19	Central Michigan -10.5 v. Bowling Green		38-20	Win	100	26 h 51 m	Show
Central Michigan is playing its best ball with consecutive blowout victories against Eastern Michigan and New Mexico State. New Mexico State is a very bad team. So is Bowling Green. Don't look for the Chippewas to overlook Bowling Green, though. Not after the Falcons stunned Toldeo at home last Saturday winning 20-7 as 26 1/2-point 'dogs. That game was a total exception. Bowling Green is terrible on both sides of the ball. The Falcons had allowed four of their previous six opponents to score 35 or more points. They are 4-18 ATS in their last 22 home games. Bowling Green also is 1-6 ATS following a victory. Bowling Green had not beaten Toldeo, a rivalry matchup, since 2009. The Falcons' defense is weak especially against the run. Central Michigan has a balanced offense averaging 32.3 points. The Chippewas rank 51th in rushing while Bowling Green rates 111th in run defense yielding 208 yards on the ground per game. The Falcons also are 127th in scoring averaging a meager 15.5 points. Central Michigan has covered four of the last five times versus below .500 opponents.
10-19-19	Florida -4.5 v. South Carolina		38-27	Win	100	24 h 8 m	Show
You can't hold it against South Carolina if the Gamecocks suffer a letdown here against a strong Florida team. South Carolina is coming off a monster upset of then third-ranked Georgia, 20-17, in double overtime last week. The Gators are looking to rebound following a 42-28 loss to third-ranked LSU. Florida had won 10 in a row until falling to the Tigers.The Gators still have a shot to reach the SEC title game, but they need to win here. Kyle Trask is playing better at QB and the Gators own the superior defense in this matchup. Florida was leading the nation in sacks until last week.
10-19-19	NC State v. Boston College +3.5		24-45	Win	100	24 h 1 m	Show
Boston College is 3-3, but 4-2 ATS, including 3-0 ATS as an underdog. The Eagles were idle last week. That has given more time to new QB Dennis Grosel, who replaces injured Anthony Brown. Grosel looked good in the Eagles' 41-39 road loss to Louisville two weeks ago when Brown was injured. NC State loves to blitz. The Eagles, however, have allowed just three sacks. The Wolfpack also are using a backup QB, Bailey Hockman. I prefer Grosel especially since he's backed by star RB AJ Dillon, who leads the ACC in rushing. NC State has failed to cover in its last four road games. The Wolfpacks are 1-5-1 ATS in their seven visits to BC.
10-13-19	49ers v. Rams -3	Top	20-7	Loss	-120	54 h 28 m	Show
The Rams are feeling heat from the Seahawks and 49ers having lost two in a row. So this becomes a crucial game. Sean McVay is the best coach in the NFC. Jared Goff has a history of playing much better at home. The 49ers are not used to taking on opponents who are extremely motivated to play them - until now. San Francisco is much improved as its 4-0 record attests. But do note those victories have come against the Buccaneers, Bengals, Steelers and Browns. The combined record of those teams is 5-15. LA is on extra rest having played last Thursday. The Rams are 7-1 ATS when having a rest advantage under McVay. The 49ers, on the other hand, are on a short week coming off a great Monday night home win against the Browns. Lost in the glare of the 49ers' dismantling of the Browns, though, was two key injuries - fullback Kyle Juszcyk and offensive right tackle Mike McGlinchey. Both are out long-term. Juszcyk may be the best fullback in the league. Compounding McGlinchey's injury is San Francisco already is minus star offensive left tackle Joe Staley. Aaron Donald should be in for a monster game. The Rams' defense isn't as down as some may perceive. LA's offense has been turning the ball over, which has put its defense in difficult field position. Jimmy Garoppolo doesn't have that much starting QB experience. He's going to face a heavy pass rush without his starting tackles. I don't see him keeping up with a high caliber Rams offense that should be well-designed with nine days to prepare under QB guru McVay. Todd Gurley may not play, but the Rams have two other good running backs. One of the keys to McVay's success has been a 10-3 division record. The 49ers are 2-10 against NFC West foes under Kyle Shanahan.
10-13-19	Bengals +12.5 v. Ravens	Top	17-23	Win	100	96 h 45 m	Show
As bad as the Bengals are, the Ravens aren't nearly good enough to lay this big of a number in a division matchup. The Ravens' defense has surrendered 96 points in its last three games. They rank 29th in pass defense and are down several key members in their secondary, including Jimmy Smith and Tony Jefferson. It's become obvious how much Baltimore misses former defensive stalwarts Terrell Suggs and C.J. Mosley, both of whom departed via free agency. The Bengals have proven to be a feisty underdog covering five of the past six times in that role. They nearly beat Seattle and Buffalo straight-up on the road this season. Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS during its last five visits to Baltimore. The Ravens have failed to cover in their last five games and are 1-6 ATS the past seven times they have been favored. Their heavy reliance on running the ball makes them an especially poor choice to lay double-digits.
10-13-19	Eagles v. Vikings -3		20-38	Win	100	95 h 23 m	Show
The Vikings are healthier and a better team than the Eagles right now. I also believe the Vikings' strong home field is worth more than the standard three points. So this line is short. Minnesota is 15-5 SU and ATS the last 20 times when laying five points or less at home. Kirk Cousins does his best work against bad teams and crippled secondaries. The Eagles have a cluster injury problem in their secondary. Cousins has a strong history versus Philadelphia, too, with a 101.2 career passer rating that includes 17 TD passes in eight games. The Eagles have to respect Dalvin Cook. So the Vikings are balanced and should have no problem moving the ball. Not so with the Eagles. Carson Wentz hasn't been sharp so far this season and he's squaring off on the road against an elite defense.
10-12-19	BYU -4 v. South Florida		23-27	Loss	-110	21 h 53 m	Show
If BYU wants to have a realistic bowl shot it can't stumble here. The Cougars have lost consecutive games to Washington and Toledo on the road. There is no shame in losing to those two teams especially drawing the Rockets in Toledo. There would be tremendous shame, though, if the Cougars were to get upset by South Florida. I don't see that happening, though, even with BYU starting QB Zach Wilson out with a broken thumb. The Cougars had a needed bye last week. Redshirt freshman QB Jaren Hall should be prepared. He's facing a Bulls squad that yields nearly 30 points a game ranking 93rd in scoring defense. BYU is bigger and has the more mature athletes. The Cougars have proven themselves with victories against Southern Cal and Tennessee. This has become a crucial game for the Cougars so their concentration, level of urgency and motivation should be there.

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