I believe in taking points with the better team. So I'm going with the Eagles fully realizing how clutch and lucky the Chiefs are in close games.

I give the Eagles a check mark in every area except quarterback and coaching. The Eagles have a much superior running game with Saquon Barkley, are better in the trenches, have a higher-rated secondary and the two best wide receivers, A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith.

No team produced more than 23 points against the Eagles during the last 16 games except the Commanders.

Philadelphia ranked either first or second in scoring defense, pass defense and total defense. The Chiefs were below average in pass defense.

Patrick Mahomes doesn't have any superstar skill position players around him unless you include a declining Travis Kelce. Jalen Hurts has Barkley and Brown.

The Eagles don't need to blitz Mahomes because their defensive front is so good both against the run and pass. The Texans had a very good defensive front, too. The Chiefs only managed 212 yards of offense and 4.2 yards per play against the Texans in their playoff opener.

Philadelphia's offensive line was ranked the best in the NFL for the third straight season by Pro Football Focus. Barkley was close to setting the NFL single-season rushing record running behind that line.

Kansas City was an underdog during the past two Super Bowls. The last time the Chiefs were a Super Bowl favorite was against the Buccaneers in 2021. Tampa Bay beat the favored Chiefs, 31-9.

This time around the Chiefs are back to being the Super Bowl favorite. The oddsmaker had no choice, but to make Kansas City chalk. No way could they open Mahomes as a Super Bowl underdog.

That doesn't mean the Chiefs are the better team. They're not, which the Eagles will prove.

Super Bowl Props

Dallas Goedert Over his receiving yardage

Travis Kelce is going to get all the publicity and be heavily bet on the prop market. Dallas Goedert is the other tight end in this Super Bowl matchup.

It's going Over Goedert's receiving yardage, though, that offers value.

The Chiefs surrendered an NFL-high 1,191 yards to tight ends during the regular season. That's an average of 70 tight end receiving yards a game.

Kansas City didn't face too many exceptional tight ends. The last one the Chiefs went against was Brock Bowers eight games ago. Bowers caught 10 passes for 140 yards in that game against the Chiefs.

Goedert is an above average tight end. Jalen Hurts relies on him. Goedert tied A.J. Brown with 18 receiving targets in the Eagles' three playoff games. Goedert averaged 62.6 receiving yards in these three postseason games.

DeAndre Hopkins Over his receptions and receiving yardage: 

DeAndre Hopkins isn't the star wide receiver of past seasons. But he's not washed up either. He remains respectable and dangerous on slant patterns.

I'm sure Patrick Mahomes is not going to ignore him. The Eagles will be keying on Travis Kelce and concerned about Xavier Worthy's great speed. That leaves Hopkins, with his always dependable hands, an inviting target for Mahomes. 

Notre Dame hasn't lost since Week 2. The Irish have gone 13-0 SU, 12-1 ATS. It's rare to find such a public team as Notre Dame being so mispriced and undervalued week after week. I find that once again to be the case in this title game matchup with Ohio State favored by too many points.

Ohio State has looked fantastic in the playoffs since getting upset by Michigan. The Buckeyes have rolled over Tennessee, Oregon and Texas. They've built quite a betting bandwagon by accomplishing that. But I don't see them doing that to Notre Dame.

The two teams had three common opponents - Indiana, Penn State and Purdue. Both went 3-0 SU and ATS against those foes. Ohio State's winning margin was 25 points against those three schools. Notre Dame's winning percentage versus them was 24 points.

I consider the quarterback close to even along with the offensive and defensive lines. Ohio State has the better skill position talent, but Notre Dame has the edge in special teams and coaching.

The turnover margin is heavily in Notre Dame's favor. The Irish are plus 17 in takeaways/giveaways while the Buckeyes are plus 5.

It's rare, but sometimes you can find value on an NFL favorite. This game is an example.

Home field advantage for the Eagles should be worth more than a field goal in this instance given the Rams are traveling across three time zones on a short week to Philadelphia and that's after returning from Arizona to Los Angeles.

This isn't a Rams type of setting either being outdoors with 30-degree weather and possible rain.

I rate the Eagles as far better than the Rams, not just three points better on a neutral field, which is what the betting line seems to indicate.

Philadelphia had its bye in Week 5. Since then the Eagles have gone 13-1. That record most likely would be 14-0 because the one loss came to the Commanders after Jalen Hurts was injured early in the game. Philadelphia had a two-touchdown lead against Washington, but were punchless when backup stiff Kenny Pickett replaced Hurts.

The Eagles defense has become the best in the league ranking No. 2 in scoring defense and first in fewest yards and passing yards. The Rams are not only the lowest scoring team to make the playoffs, but also allowed the most yards of any of the postseason participants.

Hurts was getting the rust off in the Rams' 22-10 wild card win against the Packers this past Sunday. It was far from the Eagles' "A" game. Yet they never were threatened. The Rams lost to the Packers at home, 24-19, in Week 5.

The Rams couldn't hang against the Eagles at home either when they met in Week 12. Saquon Barkley had 302 total yards of offense just by himself in the Eagles' 37-20 victory.

Not only are the Eagles far superior to the Rams talent-wise, but they have home field and the Rams are in a bad situational spot. That merits a double-digit point spread in my view so I'm easily on the Eagles.

In my view this line is inflated because of how well Ohio State has looked in its last two games - blowouts of Tennessee and Oregon - and how mediocre Texas has looked.

But I'm not convinced Ohio State is better than Texas. Those just happened to be the Buckeyes' two most impressive victories of the season.

I like Longhorns QB Quinn Ewers better than Buckeyes QB Will Howard, who doesn't bring fear when it comes to downfield passing. The Longhorns also have arguably the best cornerback in the country, Jahdae Barron.

I rated Texas as having a tougher schedule. The only team the Longhorns have lost to is Georgia. Ohio State lost to Michigan. Maybe the Buckeyes beat the Wolverines eight of 10 times, but the fact is Texas crushed the Wolverines, 31-12, on the road.

Note, too, the game venue - Arlington, Texas. It's not Austin, but home field has to go to Texas.

I give all the credit in the world to the coaching staff of the Vikings and to their quarterback, Sam Darnold.

If it weren't for phenomenal years from Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen and Joe Burrow, Darnold would be in the MVP discussion.

But we've reached the stage where it's time to get off the Vikings. They couldn't beat the Lions at home and I don't see them winning at Detroit.

The Vikings have been extremely fortunate. They've won nine games by one score with six of their victories coming by a combined 16 points. That's an average winning margin of 2.6 points a game.

The Lions are 12-1 in their last 13 games. This is their best team since the 1950's. As solid as Darnold has been, I would take Jared Goff at home over him.

Detroit also is getting healthier on defense.

Given this choice with a low point spread, I'll back the Lions.

All the pressure is on the Broncos here being in must-win territory. This is a new experience for Denver, which hasn't made the playoffs since 2015.

Yes, the Chiefs will be resting many players, including Patrick Mahomes. But this is a Kansas City team deep in talent, prideful and with stellar coaching. The Chiefs won't roll over even without some of their key starters. Carson Wentz is one of the better backups. He won't lack motivation either as he showcases himself.

Andy Reid has a tremendous track record in the final week of the regular season. The Chiefs are 9-1 the last 10 regular season games despite being underdogs on multiple occasions.

Note, too, the Chiefs have beaten the Broncos in 17 of the last 18 meetings.

Yes, the Texans are locked into the No. 4 seed in the AFC. But they are not playing well. The Texans would rather not enter the playoffs on a three-game losing streak. So their starters may play longer than some expect. If the backups do play the Texans have one of the better backup quarterbacks in Davis Mills. Houston also has had extra rest and preparation time having last played on Christmas Day.

I'd rather have Mills than either Tennessee quarterback, Will Levis or Mason Rudolph. The Titans are poorly coached, their defense has shown signs of quitting and their quarterback play has been awful. The Titans made NFL history with their 2-14 against the spread record.

The Titans have lost five in a row. They are 1-7 in their last eight games with that one victory occurring against the Texans. So Houston also has revenge motivation.

The Titans would get the No. 1 overall draft pick if they were to lose and the Patriots beat the Bills.

No one is calling Buffalo a great team. But the Bulls have huge edges in this matchup making this a strong play.

Liberty isn't very good either. The Flames barely beat New Mexico State. They have one of the worst ATS marks in the country at 3-8.

Making things far worse for the Flames, though, are their many opt-outs. They will be down their quarterback Kaidon Salter and star running back, Quinton Cooley, who rushed for 1,234 yards and 13 touchdowns.

That's not all, though. The Flames also lost nearly their entire offensive line and several defensive linemen, too.

Buffalo enters the matchup with momentum and motivation riding a four-game winning streak.

The Bulls are well coached and come from the superior conference as I would take the MAC above Conference USA.

I feel confident laying this many points with Texas State. The talent gap is that large between these two teams, especially since North Texas won't have quarterback Chandler Morris and wide receiver DT Sheffield. Those are the two keys to the Mean Green's offense.

Heck, North Texas needed a close win against 3-9 Temple to even make this bowl game.

It's not like North Texas has done well when playing in a bowl having lost six straight bowl games.

Texas State has its star quarterback, Jordan McCloud, and will do plenty of damage against a North Texas defense that could be the worst of all the bowl teams. The Mean Green rank 121st in scoring defense and 126th in total defense. Their secondary has allowed 22 touchdown throws and their run defense permits an average of 195.5 yards a game on the ground.

On top of that, Texas State coach GJ Kinne has been known to run up scores.

Injuries have decimated the 49ers this season. They are 1-6 in their last seven games and have little motivation being eliminated from the playoffs.

Dan Campbell's style is for his team to go all out. The Lions haven't forgotten about a 34-31 loss to the 49ers in the NFC championship game last season.

Detroit is 7-0 on the road and have a far better offense than the 49ers, who are down to their third-string running back, without Brandon Aiyuk and are scrambling to put together a makeshift offensive line with multiple injuries.

The Lions have multiple defensive injuries, but possess excellent depth in their defensive line and maybe the best safety tandem in the league.

I want the Big Ten team with motivation and a strong defense against a mediocre ACC team in what was a down season in the ACC.

So I'm landing on Nebraska for this Pinstripe Bowl matchup. The oddsmaker agrees, making the Cornhuskers a solid favorite.

The Cornhuskers haven't been to a bowl game since 2016. This game is being played at Yankee Stadium. Nebraska is excited and will have strong fan support.

Nebraska went 6-6, including victories against Colorado and Wisconsin. The Cornhuskers, though, lost five games by one score. One of those narrow losses was by four points to Ohio State. I consider the Big Ten to be vastly better than the ACC this season.

Nebraska freshman QB Dylan Raiola showed promise this season. The Cornhuskers ranked 17th in scoring defense and 17th in fewest yards. They were 11th in run defense.

Boston College, by contrast, ranked 90th in yards gained and were 110th in pass defense.

The Texans made the playoffs last season. They likely will make the playoffs again because they have a two-game lead in the weak AFC South Division.

But Houston has not shown the necessary improvement to take the next step, which is beating an elite foe such as the Ravens. The Texans have played three above .500 teams during their last 10 games. They lost each of those games to the Chiefs, Lions and Packers.

Baltimore defeated the Texans, 25-9, in the opening game last year and then whipped the Texans, 34-10, in the playoffs. Both of those games were at home for the Ravens. That doesn't matter. The Ravens remain what I consider to be two tiers above Houston. So, yes, I expect them to win this game by more than a touchdown.

Playing on Christmas Day is a plus, too, for the Ravens.

The Wednesday game means the Texans probably aren't going to have two starting offensive linemen and will be missing both of their starting safeties, Jimmie Ward and Jalen Pitre, because of injuries.

Lamar Jackson is having another MVP-caliber season with a 37-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio and close to 800 yards rushing. The Texans have never beaten Jackson in four attempts. Houston's defensive strength is its pass rush. Jackson has the mobility to escape that.

The Ravens are going to get their points. I don't see C.J. Stroud keeping up. Stroud's numbers are down from his rookie season. He's minus his No. 2 and No. 3 receivers with Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell out. Stroud may not be fully recovered mentally from watching his friend Dell suffer a career-threatening gruesome knee injury this past week.

Houston made a smart waiver claim getting Dioontae Johnson from the Ravens, who apparently were so receiver-rich they didn't even use Johnson. However, Johnson hasn't had enough acclimation time with Houston to make a dent in this matchup.

Prop Bet

Mark Andrews to score a touchdown and go Over his yardage total

After a slow start, Mark Andrews has returned to his star form. Andrews has scored a touchdown in five of his last six games, including the past four games. During these last six games, Andrews has averaged 4.1 receptions a game and 43.6 yards. His hands are as reliable as ever.

But what makes Andrews especially intriguing in this game is Houston is down its starting safeties, Jimmie Ward and Jalen Pitre. That means the middle of the field should be there for the taking for Andrews. Lamar Jackson trusts him and I expect will be looking often for Andrews.

San Jose State star wide receiver Nick Nash, who led the nation in receptions, receiving yards and touchdowns, has opted out of this Hawaii Bowl.

I still like the Spartans enough to lay points with them. Why? Because South Florida may be the worst of all the bowl teams.

The 6-6 Bulls didn't beat a quality team all season. Their most impressive performance may have been against Alabama - in a 42-16 loss. The Bulls are off a 35-28 loss to 4-8 Rice. The Bulls were outscored by 27 points when they met bowl teams this season.

San Jose State has the more talented team and I give the Spartans' coaching staff an edge, too. The Spartans also have experience playing in Hawaii being a member of the Mountain West Conference. The Spartans played at Hawaii last season.

The Spartans don't need Nash to take advantage of South Florida's 128th-ranked pass defense. The Bulls' lost players in the transfer portal, including starting safety Tawfig Byard.

Coastal Carolina actually is the home team here. The game is being played at Brooks Stadium in Conway, S.C. That's where the Chanticleers play their home games.

Yet there has been a huge line movement on the University of Texas San Antonio to where the Roadrunners are around two-touchdown favorites.

Coastal Carolina being without its two quarterbacks, Ethan Vasko and Noah Kim, is what is driving the UTSA money.

But you know what? I'm not especially fond of either Coastal Carolina quarterback. Neither is very accurate. Kim only threw 56 passes. Vasko had a 14-to-8 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The Chanticleers' strength is their ground attack, which ranks 45th.

Coastal Carolina's Tim Beck is a good coach and UTSA has a horrible defense. The Roadrunners rank 108th in scoring defense giving up 31.3 points a game. They ranked 126rd in pass defense. Opposing quarterbacks threw for 26 TD passes against the Roadrunners. Only 10 teams surrendered more TD's through the air.

I have confidence in Beck coaching up Tad Hudson to get the start at quarterback. Hudson was a four-star recruit two seasons ago. North Carolina signed him, but Hudson transferred to Coastal Carolina this spring. Given home field, a good ground attack and being an intriguing prospect facing a bad defense, I believe Hudson will do well.  

UTSA isn't exactly some powerhouse. The Roadrunners went 6-6 playing in the weak American Athletic Conference. They were outgained both on a total game basis and yard-per-yard basis.

The Roadrunners shouldn't be this high of a road favorite plain and simple. So I'm going against the line move and backing Coastal Carolina.

Baker Mayfield has proven his distractors wrong for a second straight season. He's thrown 32 TD passes, third-most behind Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow.

But the key to Buccaneers' tremendous offensive success is their unheralded offensive coordinator, Liam Coen. He has elevated what looked to be an ordinary offense into a high-scoring unit that is the fourth-highest scoring in the NFL at 28.8 points a game. Tampa Bay has scored 30 or more points in seven games. The Bucs' ground attack has improved so much they now rank tied for second in yards per carry and fifth in rushing yards.

Dallas gives up the third most points per game in the NFL. The Cowboys rank fourth from the bottom in run defense. Making matters worse for the Cowboys is they have multiple defensive injuries, some to key players.

Tampa Bay just hung 40 points on the Chargers on the road. The Chargers had the lowest-scoring defense in the league. Dallas' defense isn't close to that level.

The Cowboys, behind backup QB Cooper Rush, don't have the offensive capability to trade points with Tampa Bay.

Dallas is 3-6 in its last nine games with two of those victories coming against the Panthers and Giants. The Cowboys simply aren't in the class of the Buccaneers.

At 3-11, the Browns organization has made the decision to punt the rest of the season hoping to improve their draft position.

Doubt this? Then how else to explain the decision to bench Jameis Winston for third-stringer Dorian Thompson-Robinson.

Yeah, Winston commits turnovers. He does it because he's in attack mode constantly throwing downfield. Winston is high variance. But Cleveland is capable of pulling upsets with him like it did against the Ravens and Steelers and nearly did against the Broncos.

Thompson-Robinson is third-string for a reason. He's a stiff. There's no way now that the Browns can trade points against Joe Burrow.

Burrow would be in the MVP discussion if Cincinnati had a better record. He leads the NFL in touchdown throws and passing yards. The Browns defense is way down ranking 26th giving up 25.4 points a game and coming up with just four takeaways.

Look for Burrow to go off again. The Browns won't be able to counter Burrow with Thompson-Robinson.

I agree with the Falcons' decision to turn to rookie Michael Penix Jr. and bench what appears to be a washed-up Kirk Cousins. 

It should not be overlooked, though, this is Penix's first NFL start. Inexperience is going to cause mistakes. 

I expect the Giants to play hard because a loss here sets a franchise record for most defeats in a row. The Giants have played better when not under home scrutiny. They are 2-4 in their road games with one of the losses occurring in overtime.

All of the Giants' road losses have been by one score. 

The Falcons have one victory by more than six points. 

Drew Lock is going to start. He's the best of a bad lot and gives the Giants their optimal chance of winning. The Giants have a beat-up offensive line. Atlanta's pass rush has improved, but it still ranks last in the league with only 23 sacks.

The class difference between these two teams is not reflected in the point spread. The Eagles hold edges on the Commanders at every position, including quarterback now that Jalen Hurts is back on the same page with ace wide receivers, A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. 

Philadelphia is the best team in the NFC with a franchise-record 10 consecutive victories. The Eagles have won all of these games by four or more points. 

The Commanders rank 25th in run defense. Saquon Barkley leads the NFL in rushing by 214 yards. 

The Eagles' defense has gotten much better as the team is now comfortable executing ace defensive coordinator Vic Fangio's system. 

Philadelphia has held its last six opponents to an average of 15.3 points a game. Jayden Daniels doesn't have the skill position weapons the Eagles have. His offensive line is much worse than Philadelphia's, too, and he's facing a much tougher defense. 

The price is cheap to get the Eagles.

Warm-weather SMU catches a bit of a weather break in that there won't be snow. But the Mustangs are going to have to deal with temperatures in the teens and a sold-out Beaver Stadium.

I don't see SMU staying within single-digits of Penn State.

The Nittany Lions have a better roster than SMU and their Big Ten Conference was far superior to the Atlantic Coast Conference. It was an extremely down year in the ACC.

The Mustangs didn't beat any team of note. If you remove the lower-tier ACC teams and non-conference foes they played, the Mustangs gave up 30 points a game. Penn State has an excellent QB, Drew Allard, and a deep crop of skill position talent.

No, the Nittany Lions aren't in the same class of Ohio State and Oregon. But they are at that next level, which is a tier above SMU.

The Mustangs have some firepower. However, the defensive gap between these two teams is wide. Throw in that Penn State is playing at home in weather they are used to and SMU isn't and you have a double-digit Nittany Lions victory.

I'm going to ride a hot Ohio team here. The Bobcats have won and covered each of their last six games with all six matchups being blowout victories.

The Bobcats have also won their last four bowl games. They destroyed Miami of Ohio, 38-3, in the Mid-American Conference title game. Miami of Ohio has a better defense than Jacksonville State.

Ohio QB Parker Navarro accounted for four touchdowns against Miami of Ohio. But the biggest factor why I the Bobcats is because of the gap in defenses particularly the run defenses.

The Bobcats give up fewer than 18 points a game. They rank eighth in fewest yards and are fifth in rush defense. Jacksonville State can't pass. The Gamecocks are heavily run-oriented.

Ohio is the 13th-best rushing team in the nation. Jacksonville State is 95th in run defense.

Some of the luster of Jacksonville State's 52-12 win against Western Kentucky in the Conference USA title game is gone after Western Kentucky lost, 27-17, to James Madison on Wednesday in the Boca Raton Bowl.

Now that Matt Eberflus is gone, my vote for worst NFL head coach is Antonio Pierce of the Raiders.

Not that Pierce has much to work with since the Raiders give up the second-most points in the NFL, rank last in rushing, turn the ball over the third-highest amount and only have one star defensive player, Maxx Crosby.

Make that zero stars on defense as Crosby is now out for the season with an ankle injury.

Atlanta is a mediocre team. But mediocre is enough to beat the Raiders by a touchdown especially considering the situation.

More than likely the Raiders are going to be forced to start third-string QB Desmond Ridder. The Falcons certainly know how to defend Ridder, who is mobile but inaccurate and highly-turnover prone. Ridder started 13 games for the Falcons last season before Atlanta finally gave up on him.

The Falcons' pass rush has picked up considerably during their last two games. Atlanta has recorded nine sacks during this span. If  Aidan O'Connell is somehow able to play on a bad knee - and he's doubtful - the Raiders would have more of a downfield threat but no mobility at quarterback.

The Raiders have no above average weapons for their quarterbacks except tight end Brock Bowers. Las Vegas hasn't broken the 20-point barrier in nine of its last 10 games.

Kirk Cousins could lose his starting position if he doesn't play better for Atlanta. He has far more weapons than the Las Vegas quarterbacks do and is facing a Raiders defense that allows an average of 27.8 points per game - and that was with Crosby, one of the NFL's elite pass rushers.

The Raiders don't have much of a home field edge either with Las Vegas being a tourist destination and being in a dome with controlled settings, which is what the Falcons are used to.

The Packers have won one road game by more than five points all season. They beat the 3-10 Titans early in the season. 

During their past three away matchups, Green Bay lost to the Lions, nipped the Bears by one point by blocking a short, game-winning field goal attempt at the gun and edged the 3-10 Jaguars by a field goal. 

Now the Packers are traveling to Seattle, which has been a house of horror for them through the years. Green Bay last won at Seattle 16 years ago. 
Defensive guru Mike Macdonald has upgraded the Seahawks' defense where the team is now comfortable playing his style and system.

The Seahawks are in the argument for best defensive team during the last four weeks. They've surrendered fewer than 16 points a game during this span. 

Not once in their last four games have the Packers reached 400 yards. Jordan Love hasn't been playing as well as he did at the end of last season. 
The Packers came up with 17 takeaways during their first six games. Since then, they've forced just seven turnovers. 

Once again, star cornerback Jaire Alexander is out for the Packers. That means Green Bay is going to have to cover DK Metcalf, emerging star Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Tyler Lockett with Carrington Valentine, Keisean Nixon and the disappointing Eric Stokes. None of those three players is NFL cornerback-starter worthy.

Just not sold on the Broncos in this price range. The Broncos have failed to win in their AFC step-up games, losing to the Steelers, Chargers, Ravens and Chiefs.

The Colts aren't in the class of those teams. However, Indy is a playoff contender that keeps games close. The only two teams the Colts have lost to by more than one-score are the Lions and Bills.

Indianapolis has won its last two road games, both outdoors against the Patriots and Jets. The Colts catch a weather break here with the forecast calling for sunny skies and temperatures in the 50's.

The Colts also are off a bye. Bo Nix is a more accurate passer than Anthony Ricahrdson, but he lacks Richardson's dual-threat big-play ability. Richardson has a winning record as an NFL starter.

Denver could be fat and happy having won three in a row. Those victories were against the Browns, Raiders and Falcons. Those teams all have losing records.

The Jets are a disappointing mess. But Aaron Rodgers still has pride and the Jets still have way more talent than Jacksonville. So I don't see the Jets losing to the Jaguars, who are playing the string out, too, with a dead man walking coach and more key injuries than New York has.

Rodgers is off his best game of the season. He has elite receiving weapons with Davante Adams and Garrett Wilson. It's a bonus if Breece Hall returns after missing last week.

Not only are the Jaguars missing Trevor Lawrence, but they are without their two best receiving options with Christian Kirk and tight end Evan Engram out. That leaves only rookie Brian Thomas as a decent receiving weapon and he'll be watched by star cornerback Sauce Gardner, who is back from injury.

Mac Jones is in the argument for being the worst starting QB in the NFL right now. He has a 2-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Jones also has a 2-13 ATS record as an underdog of seven points or fewer.

Bryce Young and Carolina are much improved. Now the Panthers have reached the stage where they can lose close games. Carolina does not know how to win. So the Panthers should not be favored.

This is uncharted waters for the Panthers, who haven't been chalk since 2022. 

Dallas is down, its playoff hopes slim. But the Cowboys are not mathematically eliminated yet. Mike McCarthy is fighting for his coaching life. 

The Cowboys will have motivation. They have the best skill position player on the field, CeeDee Lamb, and the top defensive player, Micah Parsons, who is back from injury and has 3 1/2 sacks in his last three games. Parsons could wreak havoc on a bad Carolina offensive line. 

Rico Dowdle has put together the first two 100-yard rushing games of his career the past two weeks. He'll be running against the worst run defense in the league. Carolina gives up 170 yards per game on the ground and 4.97 yards per carry. The Panthers, by contrast, are thin at running back with their No. 2, 3 and 4 running backs all hurt. 

Dallas has put up an average of 27 points per game during its past three games. 

The Panthers, for all of their improvement, still have lost eight of their last 10 games.

Navy hasn't been the same team since getting whacked by Notre Dame, 51-14, in late October. The Midshipmen have gone 2-2 since then. They got blanked by Tulane, 35-0, in their one step-up game during that span.

Now Navy is in another step-up spot - and the matchup does not work in the Midshipmen's favor.

Army is the No. 1 rushing offense in the country. Black Knights' QB Bryson Daily has rushed for 1,480 yards and scored 29 touchdowns, tying him with Ashton Jeanty for the most TD's in the nation. Navy has a small defensive interior. The Midshipmen can be run on. They rank 85th in run defense. Notre Dame and Tulane combined to rush for 485 yards against Navy,.  

QB Blake Horvath missed Navy's last game, but is expected to play here. Whether Horvath, a dual-threat, is 100 percent remains to be seen. Both Navy's offense and defense have tailed off.

Army surrenders only 15 points a game, ranks 10th in fewest yards and 11th in defensive rushing yards. Army also has 19 takeaways, which ranks in the top 10.

I rate Army above Navy on both sides of the ball. The Black Knights have had only five turnovers, too, which is the fewest in the country.

So I don't see a path for Navy to stay within a touchdown of Army. I see the Black Knights building a comfortable lead, wearing down Navy and the run-oriented Midshipmen lacking a  backdoor capability.

There's too much of a defensive gap between these two teams for me to back the Rams. The timing isn't good either for LA.

San Francisco ranks third in fewest yards allowed and pass defense. The 49ers give up the fifth-fewest yards per play. 

By comparison, the Rams rank in the bottom-nine in most major defensive categories, including scoring, total defense, pass defense, yards per play and run defense. 

The Rams had no answer for the Bills this past Sunday giving up 44 points and 445 yards. Yet they still won. But now the Rams have to travel on a short week. 

The prideful 49ers are in must-win mode at 6-7. They regained their confidence returning home last week and smashing the Bears, 38-13, after losing on the road to the Bills and Packers the previous two games.

The two-time defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs are 11-1. They are at the highest elite level, several notches above the Chargers. Given three to 3 1/2 points for home field advantage, why then is Kansas City barely more than a field goal home favorite against Los Angeles? 

Why indeed? 

The Chargers beat the Falcons on the road inside a dome last week despite only gaining 187 yards facing a team with the fewest sacks in the league. No way will the Chargers be able to get away with that against the Chiefs on the road.

The warm-weather Chargers are looking at temperatures in the 30's with wind in the 10-15 miles per hour range for this Sunday night game in one of the toughest road venues in football. 

The Chargers are without their only decent running back, versatile J.K. Dobbins, and aren't likely to have their only decent receiver either with Ladd McConkey dealing with shoulder and knee injuries. Jim Harbaugh has turned Justin Herbert into more of a game manager than gunslinger and Herbert doesn't have the weapons to compete against Patrick Mahomes. 

Kansas City gives up the eighth-fewest points and yards per game. The Chiefs rank No. 3 in run defense. 

LA's strength is pass defense. The Chargers might have the best secondary in the league. However, the Chargers' run defense is merely average. They especially have trouble against opponents who employ a two tight end system like the Chiefs do. 

Kansas City should be able to run effectively against LA especially with Isiah Pacheco getting the rust off like he did last week. He and Kareem Hunt provide the Chiefs with a better than average 1-2 running punch. The Chiefs are back healthy at offensive tackle, too, with the return from injury of D.J. Humphries.
  
A strong ground game will allow Mahomes to pick his spots and lead to the Chiefs' seventh straight victory over the Chargers. 

The Vikings win, but they don't win by much. Minnesota's average winning margin in its past seven victories is by five points with one of those wins decided in overtime.

Minnesota is well-coached, but far from being a dominant team, not nearly as good as its 10-2 record.

This is a buy-low spot on the Falcons off a 17-13 loss to the Chargers last week. The Falcons played one of their best defensive games of the year in that loss, doubling their season sack total and rendering Justin Herbert ineffective, holding the Chargers to 187 yards and 10 first downs. They can do the same to Sam Darnold now that their defense has gotten healthy.

The takeaway, though, from that Chargers game was Kirk Cousins throwing four interceptions. Cousins won't lack motivation after that performance especially going against his former team. The Falcons are comfortable, too, playing in a dome. That is their natural setting. Cousins has weapons and the Vikings aren't expected to have injured cornerback Stephon Gilmore.

Minnesota nearly was upset by the Bears two weeks ago. It took the Vikings overtime to subdue Chicago. Then the Cardinals outgained the Vikings by 133 yards last week. Arizona led nearly the entire game before the Vikings pulled out a 23-22 home win.

Look for the Vikings' luck to finally run out here.

Facing the Steelers in Pittsburgh is not fun. It's been especially rough for the Browns, who haven't won a regular season game there since 2003! 
Look for that pattern to continue. 

The Browns are still fat-and-happy after upsetting the Steelers two weeks ago and then nearly beating the Broncos in Denver this past Monday night. So they are traveling off a short week. 

Jameis Winston threw for 497 yards and four TD's against the Broncos. Winston also was picked off three times of which two were returned for touchdowns. 

There are reasons why Winston is not a starting caliber NFL quarterback starting with interceptions. No QB in the league is more live for a pick-six than Winston, who usually follows a good game with a bad one. He is highly inconsistent. 

The Steelers get back Alex Highsmith, their second-best pass rusher. Highsmith and T.J. Watt should cause plenty of havoc against a banged-up Cleveland offensive line. The Browns haven't produced a decent ground attack all season. 

 Russell Wilson is enjoying a strong bounce back season. He's the No. 1 graded QB on passes of more than 15 yards, according to research compiled by Pro Football Focus. The Browns give up the second-most yards per pass attempt and third-most completions of 20 or more yards. 

I've been following and covering UNLV football for 40 years and I haven't seen a better coaching job than what Barry Odom has done with the Rebels this season. Huge kudos to him.

However, I don't see the Rebels staying within a field goal of Boise State. They couldn't do it when they hosted the Broncos losing, 29- 24. Boise State didn't play that well either and Ashton Jeanty was somewhat held in check.

Now the Broncos are home with motivation this being the Mountain West Conference Championship Game. Boise State buried the Rebels, 44- 20, in last year's Mountain West title game, which was played in Las Vegas.

The only team to beat Boise State this season is top-ranked Oregon, which defeated the Broncos by three points in Oregon. Boise State is unbeaten at home winning by an average margin of 25 points.

UNLV relies on a strong ground attack and opportunistic defense. Boise State, though, ranks 17th in run defense and has committed only eight turnovers, seventh-fewest in the nation.

I trust Tulane with the American Athletic Conference championship game at stake. The Green Wave are making their third consecutive AAC title game appearance. They had won 17 straight ACC games until getting upset by Memphis last week at home. The Green Wave may have been looking ahead to this title game in that loss to Memphis knowing they already had their championship game appearance punched.

Tulane was 9-2 ATS going into that Memphis game. The Green Wave have covered five of their six road games. They have one of the best running backs in the country, Makhi Hughes, and the 15th-ranked scoring defense. Their coach, Jon Sumrall, has experience stopping run-option offenses such as Army's.

Army's offense is regressing, averaging only 19.2 points in its last four games. I don't trust the Black Knights either in this step-up spot. They were destroyed by Notre Dame, 49-14, two weeks ago. That was the only time they were taking more than a field goal. Their schedule has been extremely weak.

If there's a time to step in against the Lions this is it. Detroit is getting a lot of deserved love riding a 10-game winning streak. Dan Campbell is everybody's coaching darling.

But with little fanfare, the Packers are 7-1 in their last eight games. They also happen to be 18-2 in the month of December under Matt LaFleur.

The major reason, though, why I like the Packers to spring the upset is multiple injuries to the Lions. Detroit isn't likely to have offensive left tackle Taylor Decker.

Jordan Love has a bevy of weapons. They can take advantage of a Detroit defense down its best pass rusher, two of its top three linebackers and also has additional injuries in the line and secondary.

  The Lions have the No. 1 offense in the NFL. Green Bay's defense has been coming on, though, improving against the run and putting more pressure on the quarterback. The Packers are giving up fewer than 16 points a game during their last three games.

I don't trust erratic Browns quarterback Jameis Winston, nor Cleveland's offensive line, against this caliber of defense. Denver gives up the third-fewest points, second fewest yards and has the most sacks.

The Browns are 0-4 in their last four road games with an average loss of more than 12 points in those games. Two of those defeats occurred to the Raiders and Saints, teams far worse than the Broncos.

Bo Nix plays better at home and should be able to find openings in a Browns defense missing their most versatile defender, injured linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah.

Minnesota is not nearly as good as its 9-2 record. The Vikings were fortunate to play the Jaguars, Titans and Bears in their last three games. The combined record of those teams is 9-24 yet Minnesota only beat Jacksonville by five points and needed overtime to subdue Chicago.

The Vikings are due for a loss - and it comes here. Getting points with the Cardinals is just a nice bonus.

Yes, Arizona laid an egg on the road against the Seahawks this past week. The Cardinals also had trouble playing in Green Bay. But this game is inside. That's a major plus for Kyler Murray and his bevy of weapons. Arizona had won four in a row, including defeating the Chargers and Dolphins, before losing to Seattle.

The Cardinals have surrendered just five touchdowns in their last five games. That's the best in the NFL during that span. Arizona also has 14 sacks in its past three games. The Vikings could be down to their third-string offensive left tackle with Christian Darrisaw out for the season and backup Cam Robinson questionable with a foot injury.

Minnesota has been on the road during the last three weeks. So the Vikings' home advantage is somewhat negated by the family/friends distraction factor, especially coming home during Thanksgiving week.

Hawaii is 4-7 and was destroyed by Utah State, 55-10, in its last game. This is a nothing game for the Rainbow Warriors.

New Mexico has bowl aspirations. A win here makes the Lobos bowl eligible. New Mexico has come on winning five of its last seven games.

Hawaii quarterback John-Keawe Sagapolutele is dealing with a knee injury. So he might not play. His replacement is freshman Micah Alejado.

The Rainbow Warriors have a below average run defense and only six takeaways. They have to deal with New Mexico's excellent dual threat quarterback, Devon Dampier. He's rushed for 1,065 yards and 16 touchdowns while passing for another 12 touchdowns.

The Lobos buried the Rainbow Warriors, 42-21, last year.

This is a real old-fashioned rivalry game. The point spread has never been this high since 1978. The road team has covered four of the past five times in the series.

Nevada will be sky high for this game. The key, of course, is can the Wolf Pack stay within this number?

UNLV is ranked 21st. Nevada has played two top-12 teams in SMU and Boise State. The Wolf Pack lost by five points to SMU and fell by seven points to Boise State on the road two weeks ago.

The Rebels have a strong ground attack ranking eighth in the country. So look for the Wolf Pack to load the box against UNLV since the Rebels rank 117th in passing. Nevada's pass defense ranks 42nd. The Wolf Pack also are one of the best red zone teams in the nation converting on 28-of-36 chances for 77.8 percent.

The Wolf Pack hung with SMU and Boise State. They can hang with their most hated rival.

If the Chiefs are going to cover one big point spread this season it's this game.

The Raiders are as bad as their 2-9 record shows. Las Vegas is turning back to immobile Aidan C'Connell after losing Gardner Minshew for the season because of a broken collarbone suffered last week. O'Connell has been out the last four games because of a broken thumb on his passing hand. O'Connell has admitted that his thumb is not 100 percent.

O'Connell can not expect any help from a ground game that is the worst in the NFL. Because of this early Friday start, O'Connell only was able to go through one walkthrough practice. I don't see O'Connell, or the poorly-coached Raiders, being ready for this game.

The Chiefs aren't going to lack motivation for this special stand-alone NFL Friday game, especially after the Raiders upset the Chiefs in Kansas City on Christmas Day last season.

I'll accept an inflated point spread because of the absence of Brock Purdy and Nick Bosa. This is the first time in 37 games the 49ers are not favored.

The 49ers are getting close to must-win territory being just 5-5 having blown three late leads and also lost to the Chiefs.

Backup QB Brandon Allen is a veteran. But the 49ers will be relying more on superstar all-purpose back Christian McCaffrey, who has five straight games of at least 100 yards from scrimmage, including both games he's played in this season.

The Packers' defense has been propped up by 19 takeaways, fourth-best in the league. Green Bay has invested many high draft choices on defensive players and nearly all of them have disappointed. Nose tackle Kenny Clark is having a horrible season and Jaire Alexander, the Packers' lone legitimate starting-caliber cornerback, is out.

Kyle Shanahan can coach Allen up to take advantage of Green Bay's overrated defense. Allen won't lack weapons with McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel and George Kittle.

I'm not fooled by the Packers' 7-3 record. The Packers nearly lost to the Jaguars and then were able to block a low field goal attempt at the gun to hold off the Bears, who were averaging nine points during their previous three games.

San Francisco has come back from its previous three losses to win in its following game. The 49ers also have won their past two road games, defeating the Buccaneers and Seahawks. The Packers' last three victories have been by a combined six points. They are 0-3 the past three times they've been favored.

I'll gladly accept this many points in a long-standing rivalry, coin flip matchup that USC-UCLA is. 

UCLA has covered six of its last eight games. The Trojans have already lost four times as favorites falling to Michigan, Minnesota, Maryland Washington. 

The season has been disappointing for both teams. The Bruins, though, have the confidence of having not just home field advantage but having rolled past USC, 38-20, last year. UCLA quarterback Ethan Garbers had one of his finest games in that victory throwing three TD passes. 

The strength of UCLA, however, is its run defense, which ranks eighth in the country. The Trojans rely on 1,000-yard rusher Woody Marks. Look for the Bruins to bottle up Marks like they did against Iowa's star running back Kaleb Johnson, who they held to 49 yards on 18 carries, two weeks ago. 

Not helping matters for USC is a flu outbreak that has hit its team. 

BYU had been living dangerously. They were lucky to have snuck past Utah in a controversial, 22-21, win two weeks ago. The Cougars had their unbeaten bubble finally pricked by underdog Kansas in a home loss last week. 

That loss to the 4-6 Jayhawks confirmed what many believe, including myself, that the Cougars were overrated. 

Now BYU faces one of the most improved teams in the country, 21st-ranked Arizona State in Tempe, Ariz. 

Arizona State is tied for the third-best point spread record in the country at 8-2. Sun Devils head man Kenny Dillingham is a coach of the year candidate. 

It often happens that when an unbeaten team loses their first game midseason-to-late in the year, it loses the next game. It happened to Iowa State, Liberty, Navy and Pittsburgh, all of whom opened 5-0 or better. 

I see it happening to BYU here. 

BYU and Arizona State have played six common opponents. BYU went 3-3 ATS against those foes, while Arizona State covered all six. 

The Sun Devils have the superior run defense and a better rushing offense. Their passing attack is strong, too, with quarterback Sam Leavitt throwing to his favorite target, Jordyn Tyson. 

The Bengals have a history of being strong in the second half of the season during the Joe Burrow era going 12-4 the last two plus seasons after Week 10.

Don't be fooled by the team's records here. The oddsmaker certainly isn't. Cincinnati is 4-6, but three of those losses were to the Ravens twice and Chiefs by a combined five points.

The Chargers' 6-3 record is bolstered by five of those wins coming against the Raiders, Panthers, Saints, Browns and Titans. The combined record of those five losers is 12-35.

Cincinnati should be fortified with the expected return of Tee Higgins and offensive left tackle Orlando Brown Jr.

The Chargers' home field offers little advantage to them compared to those of other teams because of fan apathy.

The good news for the Bears is they got rid of offensive coordinator Shane Waldron. The bad news is they still have Matt Eberflus as their head coach.

Chicago hasn't been right for three straight weeks, unable to recover from losing to the Commanders on a Hail Mary touchdown pass from Jayden Daniels. The Bears are averaging nine points during their last three games and have gone 23 consecutive offensive drives without a touchdown.

Physically the Bears have multiple offensive line injuries. Caleb Williams, a mental wreck, has been sacked an average of six times during each of the last three games. 

The Packers were idle last week. They've had two weeks to stew about a home loss to the Lions that ended a four-game winning streak. Green Bay has beaten and covered against Chicago 10 straight times. They are in a great position to extend that streak. 

I understand that Jameis Winston can blow hot or cold. But the Browns have been the healthiest they've been all season coming out of their bye. Their offensive line should have the right pieces finally in place and Nick Chubb should have the rust off. 

Mainly, though, this is a fade on New Orleans. The Saints are terrible on both sides of the ball. They rank in the bottom-six in yards allowed, rush defense and pass defense. Derek Carr has maybe the worst set of wideouts in the league with Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed out. The Saints' offensive line, not good to begin with, has injuries, too.

The Browns' defense has regressed this season, but their pass rush is still good led by Myles Garrett. Carr is at his worst when pressured. 

The Saints gave an all-out effort getting a coaching bump in Darren Rizzi's first game as interim coach in last week's victory against the Falcons. Atlanta, though, outplayed New Orleans. The Falcons happened to miss three field goals in that game.

I don't see the Saints nearly as motivated for this non-division matchup especially with their bye coming next week. 

Great job by Mike Tomlin and the Steelers this season. But I don't see the Steelers continuing their magic in this step-up matchup. 

Pittsburgh is riding a four-game win streak after nipping the Commanders by one point this past Sunday. The Steelers' previous three victories were against the Giants, Jets and Raiders, whose combined record is 7-22. 

Baltimore is in the argument for best team in the NFL. Certainly the Ravens are the most explosive. Lamar Jackson has thrown 24 touchdown passes to just two interceptions. Thanks to Jackson, rushing leader Derrick Henry and a bevy of quality receivers, the Ravens are No. 1 in the NFL in points, yards and rushing yards. The Steelers just surrendered 27 points to the Commanders. The previous week they gave up 22 points to the punchless Giants. No way can they contain the Ravens.

Pittsburgh is reliant upon the run. Baltimore has the top run defense in the NFL. Russell Wilson is far from his prime. He can't keep up with Jackson. Pittsburgh ranks 26th in passing. 

The Ravens play well on the road, too, going 10-3 during their past 13 away contests. The Ravens defense is dropping way down in quarterback class facing Wilson after going against Joe Burrow. 

Both teams own losing records. But there's a difference. Houston is 3-1 in its last four games and has pulled upsets in its last two games beating Kansas State and Utah. Arizona has lost and failed to cover its past five games.

The Cougars have momentum and confidence. Arizona doesn't. Houston also has found the right quarterback.

Zeon Chriss has sparked the Cougars since replacing Donovan Smith halfway through a 30-19 victory against TCU four games ago. Chriss sets up the pass because he's such an effective runner. He's made the Cougars' offense much better than their season statistics look like.

Arizona surrenders nearly 170 yards on the ground, fourth-worst in the Big 12. The Wildcats have lost three key defenders due to injuries.

The Wildcats have a superstar wide receiver, Tetairoa McMillan, but their quarterback play and coaching have been a disappointment. Since the second week of the season, the Wildcats are averaging only 17.2 points a game. Houston surrenders the 23rd-fewest yards per game in the nation.

This is a Friday night game, but attendance at Arizona could be down for this football game because its basketball team has a marquee game against Wisconsin that starts about 75 minutes before kickoff.

All the credit in the world to Jayden Daniels and the Commanders for their surprising 7-3 record. But they aren't nearly as good as the Eagles are from top to bottom and face a brutal scheduling spot here.

The Eagles are back on track winning five in a row. Jalen Hurts has far better skill position talent than Daniels. While Daniels is looking like the Rookie of the Year, Hurts quietly has accounted for 16 touchdowns in his last five games. Philadelphia is averaging 31.7 points in its past four games.

Not only does Hurt have elite receiving targets, but Saquon Barkley should eat well, too, facing a Washington run defense that ranks fifth-from-the-bottom.

While the Eagles had an easy time against the Cowboys last week, the Commanders suffered a tough 28-27 home loss to the Steelers that could be a burst to their growing confidence and swagger.

It's always tough being the road team on Thursday night. The short week also might prevent running back Brian Robinson Jr. and cornerback Marshon Lattimore from playing after missing last week due to injuries.

Bowling Green defeated Western Michigan on the road by 24 points last season. I expect the Falcons to win by double-digits hosting Western Michigan this season. 

Both teams have strong offensive capabilities. I trust Bowling Green's defense far more than the Broncos' defense, though.

The Falcons have scored 27 or more points in six of their nine games. They have one of the MAC's most talented running backs in Terion Stewart.

Western Michigan gives up an average of 34.7 points a game and ranks 124th in the metric of defensive success rate allowed. 

Nico Collins and pass rusher Will Anderson Jr. are two of the Texans' five best players. I don't think either one is going to play against the Lions. But even if they do, I still like Detroit to beat Houston by at least a touchdown.

The well-balanced Lions are a top-five team. Houston is 6-3, but 3-6 ATS and not in Detroit's elite class. The Texans have won four of their games against their weak AFC South Division foes. The other two were against the Patriots and Bears. Houston lost to the Packers in Green Bay. The Lions just got done beating the Packers by double-digits in Green Bay.

Letdown you say for Detroit after a highly-satisfying victory against the Packers? No way. Not with this being the nationally televised Sunday night game.  

The Lions have the highest-scoring offense, the best point differential and the best turnover differential. Jared Goff has the highest passer rating (140.1) during the past six games in NFL history for any QB with at least 50 passing attempts. And now Goff gets back from suspension the Lions' most explosive player, Jameson Williams. Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery are both on pace to rush for more than 1,000 yards.

The Texans have permitted 19 TD passes already having given up just 17 last season.

Houston's offense line sprung a week against the Jets last week allowing C.J. Stroud to be sacked eight times. The Lions just beefed up their pass rush acquiring Za'darius Smith. Detroit is 4-0 SU and ATS on the road this season.

No need to overthink this and be afraid to lay a touchdown on the road in a division game. The Eagles are ascending despite Nick Sirianni's best efforts to prevent this. The Cowboys were close to dead with Dak Prescott. Now they don't have him. Micah Parsons may return here, but it's too late.

The Cowboys can't be saved, certainly not by backup QB Cooper Rush. He's a competent systems backup. But he needs weapons surrounding him. Aside from CeeDee Lamb, the Cowboys offer nothing at the skill positions. Dallas is the second-worst rushing team in the NFL.

The Eagles are the lone team in the league to rank in the top six in both offense and defense.

Philadelphia is averaging 31 points in its last three games. Dallas is surrendering an average of 34.6 points in its past three games. Jalen Hurts has accounted for 12 touchdowns in his last four games. Saquon Barkley is in the argument for best all-around running back. A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith are in the argument for best wide receiver tandem and both are expected to play here after being banged-up.

Bad news for a Dallas defense that is allowing a staggering 41.7 points in its last four home games.

The Eagles have won 16 of their last 22 road games. This includes a 4-0 mark this season when not playing at Lincoln Financial Field.

Hard to imagine these two teams are a combined 13-4. Pittsburgh is the better all-around team so getting points with the Steelers is a bonus.

The Steelers have the second-stingiest defense in the NFL giving up just 14.9 points a game. They should be well prepared for dual threat Jayden Daniels having had an extra week of preparation with their bye. Pittsburgh defense also gets to practice against Justin Fields, another dual threat type of quarterback with great mobility.

Pittsburgh is 12-4 off a bye under Mike Tomlin, including winning the last seven times in that spot.

Daniels will be without his top running back as Brian Robinson Jr. is out another week due to a hamstring injury. The Steelers, on the other hand, are getting a number of their walking wounded back. This includes center Zach Frazier and running back/stud kickoff returner Cordarrelle Patterson.

Newly acquired cornerback Marshon Lattimore won't play for Washington because of a hamstring injury. The Commanders rank 29th in run defense and have just three takeaways. The ground-oriented Steelers should be able to put Russell Wilson, who has played well in his last two games, into favorable play-calling situations.

Pittsburgh hasn't lost by more than three points all season. The Steelers won straight-up the two times they were underdogs.

Yes the 49ers are 4-4. No one doubts their talent, though, especially since they are going to be reinforced coming off their bye with Christian McCaffrey, Jauan Jennings and kicker Jake Moody all likely to return here. Deebo Samuel should be a go, too.

Let the record show that San Francisco is 16-2 following a Week 9 bye during the past two seasons.

Tampa Bay's defense is way down, ranking 28th in points allowed and 30th in pass defense. Tampa Bay's gassed defense was on the field for 83 plays this past Monday night in an overtime road loss to the Chiefs. Now they're playing on one less day of rest. Unlike the rested 49ers, the Buccaneers haven't had their bye yet. This will be their 10th straight week of action.

Baker Mayfield has compensated for the loss of his two star wideouts, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, by targeting tight end Cade Otton and his running backs out of the backfield. The 49ers' linebackers, though, are excellent in covering tight ends and running backs. The 49ers have a defensive passer rating of 78.7, fourth-best in the NFL.

Sure there figures to be plenty of points scored here. I just don't see Texas Tech and its quarterback, Behren Morton, keeping up with Colorado and its Heisman Trophy candidate quarterback, Shedeur Sanders.

And Sanders isn't even the best player on the Buffaloes. That honor goes to two-way superstar Travis Hunter, who dominates at wide receiver and in the secondary.

Colorado's defense has an athletic secondary led by Hunter and a good pass rush. Texas Tech doesn't offer that. The Red Raiders rank second-to-last in the nation in pass defense and are 130th in total defense. They are last in the Big 12, too, with only 11 sacks. Sanders should feast, throwing to Hunter and LaJohntay Wester among his deep receiving corps.  

The Buffaloes were idle last week. Not so with Texas Tech. The Red Raiders went into Ames, Iowa and upset Iowa State, 23-22, as 13 1/2-point road underdogs. That made the 6-3 Red Raiders bowl eligible and could mean a letdown for this game.

Morton didn't have a good game against Iowa State completing a season-low 52.5 percent of his passes while being intercepted twice. The Red Raiders have a top running back, Tahj Brooks. But he won't be enough to elevate Texas Tech past ascending Colorado, which is 5-1 in its last six games.

After jumping out to a 6-0 start, Navy has regressed. The Midshipmen are looking like frauds now after losing to Notre Dame, 51-14, and to Rice, 24-10, last week. Some of Navy's problems can be related to quarterback Blake Horvath trying to play through a hand/thumb injury. He's looked terrible during this time span.

Navy isn't taking opponents by surprise anymore either as foes have plenty of film on Navy's unique option style attack.

South Florida, by contrast, has picked up its game. The Bulls beat UAB and Florida Atlantic by double-digits in their last two games. They have a much better run defense than pass defense and can key on the run knowing Horvath isn't 100 percent.

All the Colts do is play one-score games. All of their eight games this season have been decided by six or fewer points. 
Expect another one-score affair in this matchup. 

Minnesota's magic is slipping away with two straight losses. 

Sam Darnold could turn into a pumpkin at any time. The Colts have gotten healthy on defense. Having defensive line stud DeForest Buckner makes a huge difference for Indy.

The Vikings will be without their best offensive lineman, injured left tackle Christian Darrisaw. He's out for the season after suffering a knee injury against the Rams last week. The Vikings are so concerned about protecting the immobile Darnold they just traded for overpriced Jaguars' offensive left tackle Cam Robinson, who Jacksonville benched against the Packers last Sunday. 

Inexperienced Anthony Richardson may have struggled on the road inside a dome against the Vikings' aggressive, blitz-happy defense orchestrated by defensive coordinator, Brian Flores. That style of defense, though, shouldn't faze veteran Joe Flacco, who was named the Colts' starter. The veteran Flacco has shown plenty of life during the past couple of seasons. Flacco has passed for 716 yards with a 7-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio in parts of three games this season. Flacco had 13 TD passes in five games for the Browns last year. 

The Vikings rank 30th in pass defense. All of the Colts' wideouts are made better with the switch from the erratic and inaccurate Richardson to Flacco. Minnesota has surrendered at least 29 points in three of its last four games.  

It doesn't matter if it's Jordan Love or Malik Willis behind center for Green Bay. The Packers are not at the level of the Lions and are going to lose this game.

Detroit has won and covered in its last five games, peaking right now. The Lions are averaging 43 points a game during their past four games.

During the past two weeks, Green Bay was barely able to squeak past the Texans at home and then nipped the 2-6 Jaguars by three points last Sunday on a field goal at the gun.

I doubt the Packers risk Love since they have their bye next week. Love is on pace to throw 28 interceptions this season. He might be gimpy if he plays. Willis can't throw downfield. The Packers would have no backdoor capability if Willis gets the start.

Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery have become the best running back tandem in football. Jared Goff is the highest rated passer in the NFC. Amon-Ra St. Brown gives Detroit the best wide receiver on the field. The Lions hold a special teams edge, too.

Green Bay's defense isn't that good, nor does it produce a consistent pass rush. The Packers have been propped up by an unsustainable 19 takeaways, which is No. 1 in the NFL. It's more than the Packers had all of last season.

Goff's matchup gets even better if cornerback Jaire Alexander and versatile defensive back Evan Williams can't go for Green Bay. They were both injured against the Jaguars.

Look for an all-out, intense effort from the Cowboys, who trail the Commanders and Eagles by two games in the NFC East.

I doubt that will be the case for the Falcons, who are fat and happy leading the NFC South after defeating their main division rival, Tampa Bay, for the second time in four weeks.

Dallas lacks a ground attack. But Dak Prescott has a top-three wide receiver CeeDee Lamb and should have plenty of time in the pocket. The Falcons have just six sacks, lowest in the NFL. Atlanta is giving up nearly 27 points a game during its past five games. The Falcons have been without their best defensive back, safety Justin Simmons, and top linebacker, Troy Andersen.

After facing the 49ers, Lions and Steelers, the Cowboys are dropping way down in defensive class against this opponent.

Kirk Cousins has been great against the Buccaneers with an 8-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. However, he has 6-to-6 touchdown-to-interception ratio in his other games this season. It's a huge bonus if Dallas gets back injured pass rushing stud Micah Parsons.

Hawaii can prove tough at home given its built-in travel advantage.
 
But when it comes to playing on the mainland, the Rainbow Warriors clearly are fade material. Hawaii is 1-14 in its last 15 road games, including 0-3 SU and ATS this season. Only once in their past eight away games have the Rainbow Warriors managed to cover the spread.

I don't see them doing it here against Fresno State. 

The teams last met two seasons ago in Fresno. The Bulldogs won, 55-13. Things have changed since then with Jeff Tedford no longer  Fresno State's coach. He resigned before this season due to health concerns. Tom Skipper is the interim coach and the Bulldogs have picked up their pace.

Fresno State has defeated San Jose State and Nevada during the past two weeks to move its record to 5-3. Mikey Keene was 30-of-41 passing while throwing for three touchdowns and 275 yards against San Jose State last week, his best game of the season. Keene has the receiving depth to exploit Hawaii's 73rd-ranked pass defense.

I don't expect Hawaii quarterback Brayden Schager to match Keene and Fresno State's offense. The Rainbow Warriors average only 21.5 points, which ranks them 110th. They are 123rd in rushing and 103rd in yards per game. 

The Bulldogs force an average of two turnovers a game and rank among the top-10 in interceptions. Hawaii, by contrast, has only four takeaways. 

Mississippi is getting too much respect here. The Rebels had an easy first four games, which has skewed their season-long numbers. They are 1-3 ATS during their past four games, which include upset losses to LSU and Kentucky and unimpressive non-cover against a down-in-the-dumps Oklahoma, 26-14, as a 19-point home favorite last week.

The Rebels are averaging just 21.5 points in their last four games.

Oh, yeah, the Rebels haven't won in Fayetteville in 16 years.

Only six teams have produced more yards per game than Arkansas. The Razorbacks have outgained foes by more than 133 yards per game as QB Taylen Green gets better each week.

The Lions just may be the best team in the NFC right now, but they are in uncharted point spread territory here. They've never been this high of a favorite in the Dan Campbell era.

Detroit is laying these big points, too, in a division sandwich spot. The Lions went all out - physically and emotionally -  to nip the Vikings on a field goal with 15 seconds left this past Sunday. The Lions meet the Packers in Green Bay the following week.

In between the lowly Titans come calling. Can't blame the Lions for looking past Tennessee.

That could prove embarrassing, though, for Detroit.  

The Titans give up the fewest yards per play. They also rank No. 3 in pass defense.

Reckless second-year QB Will Levis has sunk the Titans with his boneheaded turnovers.

Veteran Mason Rudolph, though, is expected to make his second straight start as Levis nurses a sore shoulder. Rudolph is mediocre at best, but he knows how to take care of the ball. He has a reliable running back, Tony Pollard, an improving offensive line and decent receivers even with DeAndre Hopkins getting traded.

The Titans have lost by one score in three of their five defeats. They can keep this one close given the circumstances and Detroit missing star defensive lineman Aidan Hutchinson and suspended explosive, big-play wideout Jameson Williams.

After dominating the Patriots, 24-3, the Jets have lost four in a row. Those defeats came to the Broncos, Vikings, Bills and Steelers. The combined record of those teams is 19-9. Now the Jets drop way down in class getting the Patriots again. 

New England hasn't won since opening week. The Patriots have lost six in a row with their past five defeats being by an average of 15.8 points. 
The Jets have gotten two key reinforcements - Davante Adams and elite pass rusher Haasan Reddick, who has 27 sacks the past two years going into this season. He was second in the NFL in sacks two seasons ago. 

The Patriots have regressed defensively due to injuries and a suspension to safety Jabril Peppers. Among those out for New England are Christian Barrmore, their top defensive lineman, and their best linebacker, Ja'Whuan Bentley. 

Drake Maye is a downfield passing upgrade on Jacoby Brissett. The Patriots have multiple offensive line injuries and are well below par at wide receiver. The rookie Maye has to face an above average Jets defense with these handicaps. 

I expect the Jets to be highly motivated to end their losing streak especially after Adams and Aaron Rodgers questioned the team's energy following a 37-15 loss to the Steelers last Sunday. 

On the flip side, I question the morale of the Patriots and the ability of first-year head coach Jerod Mayo. The Patriots also could be flat from lingering jet lag having played in London last Sunday where they got blown out by the lowly Jaguars. 

When Tua Tagovailoa is healthy and starting, the Dolphins are one of the most explosive teams in the NFL. Tagovailoa makes all his speedy skill position weapons dangerous.

Well Tagovailoa is back in the lineup and Miami should get a huge spark from that, especially being home. The Dolphins face a bottom-tier Cardinals defense that has multiple injuries in their defensive front seven and has a weak secondary that ranks 26th. One of the defenders the Cardinals just lost was linebacker Dennis Gardeck, who is their team leader in sacks.

The Cardinals are traveling cross-country on a short week after upsetting the Chargers at home this past Monday night. Arizona's offense is at its worst playing on grass outdoors.

Note, too, that the last time Kyler Murray won consecutive starts was 2021. It's a string of 11 losses in a row following a victory.

Anytime the better team is taking points, I'm interested in the underdog. That's the case here.

Hawaii has a very weak offense. The Rainbow Warriors rank 117th in scoring at 19.7 points and are 105th in total yards. Their average per game shrinks to just 13.4 points if you count just the five FBS opponents they have played.

Hawaii is favored because of home field and Nevada likely not having injured starting QB Brendon Lewis. However, the Wolf Pack could benefit from using backup QB A.J. Bianco, who is a better passer than Lewis. Hawaii only has three takeaways.

One of the best below-the-radar coaching jobs being turned in this season is by UL-Monroe's first-year head coach Bryant Vincent. This isn't the Warhawks of 2023, who finished last year losing their final 10 games.

Vincent has Monroe off to a 5-1 start both straight-up and against the spread. This includes a 21-19 victory against James Madison as a 19-point 'dog. The Warhawks' only loss was 51-3 to fifth-ranked Texas. That loss has skewed the Warhawks' overall statistics.

South Alabama is the opposite. The 3-4 Jaguars haven't beaten a quality team. Their statistics are artificially high because of an 87-10 victory against Northwestern State, an 0-8 team that plays in the FCS Southland Conference.

The lone time South Alabama stepped up this season was when it played LSU. The Jaguars lost, 42-10, and gave up 677 yards to the Tigers.

Monroe has surrendered more than 300 yards to just one other team besides Texas. The Warhawks have a stout defense, one of the Sun Belt Conference's top running backs in Ahmad Hardy and have an improving quarterback, redshirt freshman Aidan Armenta.

Temple was an auto-fade early in the season. But the Owls have turned things around covering four of their last five games.

The key to the Owls' turnaround is the return to health of Evan Simon. He had a 122.3 passer rating in leading the Owls to a 20-10 win against Tulsa last week. Simons has completed 65 percent of his passes and has a 10-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

Mainly my involvement in this matchup is to fade East Carolina. The Pirates have lost four of their past five games. They can't stop the run, nor run the ball effectively. East Carolina ranks 96th in total yards and 97th in scoring defense.

The fat-and-happy Falcons, off three consecutive NFC South Division victories, are looking to win four in a row for the first time since 2019.

I don't see it happening here.

There's tremendous urgency here for the Seahawks. Seattle opened 3-0, but has dropped its past three games.

Let's look at those defeats. The first occurred against the Lions, 42-29, on the road on Monday night. The Seahawks were hampered by multiple defensive injuries against a Lions squad that leads the NFL in points per game. Seattle then traveled home to host the Giants on a short week. The Seahawks played a terrible game and lost to the Giants. Next up was a Thursday night game against the 49ers, maybe the most talented team in the NFL.

Now the Seahawks are dropping down in class and doing it with extra time to prepare and rest. Their defense isn't back to full strength, but it has gotten healthier with promising rookie defensive tackle Byron Murphy expected back. Seattle also bolstered its defensive line, acquiring veteran Roy Robertson-Harris.

Atlanta is better because of Kirk Cousins at quarterback and Arthur Smith no longer being there to feature second-stringers instead of his star skill position players. However, the Falcons remain below average defensively. They are 24th in run defense and last in the NFL in sacks with just five.

Geno Smith will have to throw for the first time in four games. He has the wide receiving weapons to burn a vulnerable Falcons secondary. Kenneth Walker III is back healthy to provide Smith with a running back threat.

The Falcons have not been good in this role going 4-10 the last 14 times they've been favored.

Iowa still has its great defense. Only this season the Hawkeyes can actually produce points. 

The Hawkeyes have scored 31 or more points in four of their six games. They just put up 40 points against Washington last Saturday. 

Michigan State can't match the Hawkeyes in the trenches. The Spartans are down after being buried by Oregon and Ohio State during their past two games.

The Spartans are turnover-prone committing 14. Their quarterback, Aiden Chiles, has been intercepted nine times. 

The Hawkeyes have a top-10 running back in Kaleb Johnson. Iowa also rates a strong special teams edge. 

Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz has a strong history when favored by 6 1/2 points or fewer going 37-23 ATS. His Hawkeyes also have covered 78 percent the past 23 times as a road favorite against fellow Big Ten teams. 

Purdue is one of the three worst teams in the Big Ten Conference in a down year for the Big Ten.

But the Boilermakers are better after making a quarterback switch to redshirt freshman Ryan Browne and they draw Oregon at home while the Ducks are dealing with a huge situational disadvantage.

So getting four touchdowns with the Boilermakers is enough for me to get involved.

The Ducks moved to No. 2 in the country in The Associated Press Top 25 rankings after upsetting Ohio State at home, 32-31, at home. Now, six days later, the Ducks are back in action after traveling three time zones losing two days of practice time because of the Friday start. It's going to be difficult for the Ducks to get highly motivated for this matchup after their thrilling, emotional win against the Buckeyes.

This is by far Oregon's longest road trip of the season. The Ducks' other road games were flying to Los Angeles to play UCLA and a less-than-an-hour drive to face in-state rival Oregon State.

Big Ten teams traveling two or more time zones have covered just 31 percent of the time in 13 instances this season.

Yes, Oregon holds a monster talent edge. Browne, though, is a huge upgrade on a disappointing Hudson Card. Browne accounted for 415 total yards in a 50-49 loss to Illinois last week. Purdue averaged 9.2 yards per play against a respectable Illinois defense.

I get that the Bengals are 1-4 and their defense has taken a major step back. I also know the Bengals can't take a loss here. This is the Bengals' season and they are on national television with this being the Sunday night game.

I'm not going to quit on the Bengals. Their offense is humming. The Giants don't have the skill position talent to trade points with Joe Burrow especially with Malik Nabors out for a second straight week due to a concussion.

The Bengals are averaging 32.4 points in their last four games. Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are playing at elite levels. The Giants have an outstanding pass rush. Yet lost in all the adulation for Burrow and Chase is that Cincinnati's offensive line has been playing well. 

The Bengals have decent coaching on the defensive side of the ball. Many of their defenders, especially safeties Von Bell and Geno Stone, are better than what they've shown so far. Cincinnati has faced three quarterbacks far better than Daniel Jones during their past four games in Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels and Patrick Mahomes.

Surprised the 4-1 Broncos are home underdogs to the 2-2 Chargers? I'm not. The Chargers are the better team and in the better situation.

Even though this is a division game, the Broncos have to be fat and happy with three victories in a row, including underdog road wins against the Jets and Buccaneers. They just blew out the Raiders further bolstering their complacency.

The Chargers got off to a 2-0 start. But then could manage only 10 points apiece in losses to the Chiefs and Steelers. Those are two excellent defenses, but the Chargers didn't have their star offensive tackles Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt. That not only hurt their ground attack, but Justin Herbert couldn't get enough time in the pocket.

Slater and Alt are expected to play this Sunday. That should make a big difference in LA's offenses.

I like Herbert much more than Bo Nix, who is a dink-and-dunker with a 3-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The Chargers' defense has been outstanding, surrendering an NFL-low 12.5 points a game and giving up the fifth-fewest yards per game. Denver's offensive line is banged-up, too, with its right tackle and center likely out.    

Not only are the Broncos in fat-and-happy mode, but the hungry Chargers are coming off a bye on a two-game losing streak. They are stepping down in class from the Chiefs and Steelers. Jim Harbaugh will have them ready.

I want no part of the rudderless Raiders. They have serious morale issues, a bad head coach and a bottom-tier quarterback situation.
The Steelers are a well-coached, defensive-minded power team. A good quarterback can beat the Steelers like Dak Prescott did last week. But the Raiders lack that.

Las Vegas is switching QB's going with Aidan O'Connell. He's not any better than Gardner Minshew. Both are backup quality. Davante Adams remains out leaving the Raiders with woeful wide receivers to go with below par running backs. 

The Raiders are going against a Pittsburgh defense that yields the second-fewest points per game at 14.6. 

The Steelers should do enough offensively to cover this number. Bo Nix, after all, posted a 117.2 passer rating against the Raiders last week in Denver's, 34-18, victory. The Raiders had 11 penalties in that game. Antonio Pierce has long worn out the initial spark he provided the Raiders when he first took over as head coach last year. He's a bottom-five coach in my book, while Mike Tomlin is a future Hall of Famer. 

Pittsburgh was nipped by Dallas in the final minute last week. The Steelers are 8-3 ATS following a loss. 

The Steelers are heavily run-oriented. The Raiders rank 28th in scoring defense and 22nd in run defense. They are now without star defensive lineman Christian Wilkins. 

The Raiders are minus 7 in turnovers. The Steelers are plus 4. 

Getting behind the Patriots is a combination that new starting QB Drake Maye will provide a spark and a downfield passing attack New England lacked with Jacoby Brissett and the Texans being overpriced without Nico Collins and possibly Joe Mixon again.

This is the largest the Texans have been favored during the two-year DeMeco Ryans era. And it comes on the road. 

It's Houston's first game without Collins, who leads the NFL in receiving yards. It's a big loss because the Texans lack a reliable ground attack if Mixon has to miss another week. 

Maye gives the Patriots an element of surprise since this is his first NFL start. He'll have the home crowd on his side. 

The Patriots are bottom-three bad. But they will be up for this game while the Texans are in a flat spot off consecutive satisfying victories against the Bills and Jaguars. 

Houston's four victories have been by an average of 3.7 points. 

The Bears have looked so good in their last two games that they are favored against the Jaguars in London. I say whoa to that.

Chicago's victories the past two weeks have come against the Panthers, perhaps the worst defensive team in the NFL, and the beat-up Rams. 
The Jaguars finally got their offense going with Trevor Lawrence having his biggest game of the season in a 37-34 win against the Colts this past Sunday. 

Tank Bigsby emerged in that game as a legitimate home-run threat and the Jaguars are expected to have back tight end Evan Engram. He's a key part to Jacksonville's offense. Engram has missed the last four games. 

The Jaguars know how to prepare and play in London. They've done it for 11 of the past 12 seasons. The Bears are new to this and also they are in a fat and happy mood ready for a fall. Chicago isn't good enough to beat a motivated team unless playing well. 

Oregon State is 4-1. Nevada is 2-4. But don't be fooled by that. These teams are remarkably even. Nevada is home and getting points so I'm on the Wolf Pack.

Nevada is 4-2 ATS and has played a tougher schedule than the Beavers. The Wolf Pack ranks 36th rushing and is above average in stopping the run. Oregon State is run-oriented.

It's not a great situational spot for the Beavers as they are off a 39-31 overtime victory against Colorado State. Oregon State allowed the Rams to pick up 6.4 yards a play.

You have to go back to 2008 to find the last time Mississippi beat LSU at Tiger Stadium. I don't see that streak ending here.

LSU is off a bye and has a very strong passing attack. LSU coach Brian Kelly is 10-2 the past dozen times following a bye.

Tigers QB Garrett Nussmeier ranks fifth in the country in passing yards. He's completed 69.8 percent of his throws while throwing 15 TD's in five games.

Mississippi's defensive strength is run defense. The Rebels are just average against the pass. They haven't faced a foe nearly as strong as LSU.

The good news is we have a Big Ten game today. The bad news is it's between two mediocre teams.

I don't think 3-2 Maryland is double-digits better than 2-3 Northwestern, so I'm on the underdog.  

I also don't think Michigan State is very good and Maryland lost at home to the Spartans. 

Northwestern has a respectable defense ranking 44th in scoring defense giving up fewer than 21 points a game and is 18th in run defense. The Wildcats have weak offensive numbers, but that is starting to change with improvement from QB Jack Lausch. 

The Terrapins allow more points per game than Northwestern and rank 121st in pass defense. 

If Seattle wins this game it would be leading the NFC West with a 4-2 record while the 49ers would be 2-4. I can't envision that. The 49ers have uncharacteristically blown two double-digit fourth quarter leads, or they would be 4-1. That's more in line with the talent the 49ers possess, which I regard as the best in the NFC. 

So I'm not going to overthink this. Records be damned. The 49ers are the superior team and they won't lack motivation after a bad home loss to the Cardinals last Sunday. The 49ers probably would have won that game if their kicker, Jake Moody, didn't suffer an ankle injury leaving them without a suitable field goal kicker. That problem has been rectified with the 49ers signing Matthew Wright. 

The Seahawks have capitalized on playing a weak schedule. Yet they were thoroughly outplayed and lost at home to the Giants last week despite New York missing its star wide receiver Malik Nabers. 

Seattle is a mediocre team with a cluster injury problem to its defensive front and has a weak offensive line that has allowed Geno Smith to be sacked 18 times, highest in the NFC. 

The Seahawks' home field edge is way overrated just 5-12 ATS in their past 17 home games. The Seahawks also have lost five in a row to the 49ers with the average losing margin being 15.2 points. None of the games have been close. 

This isn't the dangerous, Super Bowl-caliber Bills team of the past four seasons. The Bills are more down than perceived. It wasn't a fluke that the Bills were exposed by the Ravens this past Sunday night.

The Bills aren't explosive anymore. Josh Allen doesn't have the quality wide receivers he had before. Stefon Diggs is on Houston now. He will have the Texans highly motivated to beat his former Bills team. Khalil Shakir is Buffalo's top wide receiver and he's out with an ankle injury.

The Texans have the better overall roster given Buffalo's multiple key injuries on defense.

C.J. Stroud leads the AFC in passing yards. Nico Collins is emerging as a top-five wide receiver. Diggs will be involved. Tank Dell is expected back. It's an added plus if Joe Mixon can return after being out the past two weeks.

Houston is 9-3 at home under second-year coach DeMeco Ryans.

This line is too respectful of the Panthers. Are they a better team with Andy Dalton at QB? Yes. Are they still the worst team in the NFC? Yes, too.

Dalton isn't some savior. He's an over-the-hill, mediocre starting QB who only has looked decent in comparison to Bryce Young.

Defense, though, is the Panthers' biggest problem. Carolina is surrendering the most points in the NFL giving up 32.3 a game. The Panthers' defense is likely to get even worse as injuries take a toll. They are without their best defensive lineman, Derrick Brown, and just this past week lost their two best linebackers, Shaq Thompson and Josey Jewell.

The Bears have a top-10 defense. They are very opportunistic, too, ranking fourth in takeaways.

Caleb Williams is improving each week. The Bears displayed a balanced attack last week, which can only help Williams as he now faces the easiest defense of his early NFL career.

The Colts are 2-2. The Jaguars are 0-4, the lone winless team in the NFL. But Jacksonville isn't a terrible 0-4. The Jaguars are 2-2 ATS and have losses to the Dolphins, Browns and Texans by a combined margin of 12 points, an average loss of four points. A goal line fumble cost the Jaguars probably a sure win against Miami when the Dolphins were at full strength with Tua Tagovailoa.

The oddsmaker believes it's time for the Jaguars to win making them the favorite. I agree. 

The Colts, a dome team, haven't won at Jacksonville since 2014. Indy has dropped nine consecutive road games against the Jaguars, counting one in London. There is a high possibility of rain for this game. That's a plus in Jaguars' favor being an outdoor team. 

Jacksonville not only is due and in must-win mode win, but the timing is good. The Colts are severely hobbled. Jonathan Taylor is out and Anthony Richardson isn't likely to play leaving the Jaguars to defend against immobile Joe Flacco.

The Colts are even more banged-up on defense. They are down several defensive backs and linemen, including three-time Pro Bowler DeForest Buckner. The Colts rank 31st in run defense. The Jaguars are averaging 5.7 yards per run, which rates second in the NFL.

This isn't the good Troy teams of past years. The Trojans lost a lot of quality players from last season. They are 1-4 with their lone win coming against Florida A&M.

The Trojans average just 21.4 points a game. They don't have the firepower, nor defense, to keep up with high-scoring Texas State. Troy only has one defensive takeaway, too, so turnovers shouldn't be a problem for Texas State.

The Bobcats have Jordan McCloud, who I consider to be the best QB in the Sun Belt Conference. They also have a tremendous offensive-minded coach in GJ Kinne.

No way, though, does Texas State take the Trojans lightly. Not after the Bobcats blew a 22-0 lead in a 40-39 loss to Sam Houston State last week. I see the far more talented Bobcats taking out their frustrations on the hapless Trojans.

First-year head coach Mike Macdonald has gotten the Seahawks out to a 3-0 start. Macdonald is a defensive mastermind and appears to be a promising head coach.

But this is a bad spot for the Seahawks, who have been fortunate to have begun with three easy opponents: Broncos, Patriots - who they beat in overtime - and Dolphins minus Tua Tagovailoa getting Skyler Thompson and Tim Boyle instead. The Seahawks committed 11 penalties in their victory against Miami, but the Dolphins were done in by totally inept quarterback play. That won't be the case here with Jared Goff and his bevy of weapons and excellent offensive line.

The Lions hold Super Bowl aspirations. The Seahawks are far from that stage. This is a huge step-up game for Seattle.

Detroit has revenge for a 37-31 overtime home loss to the Seahawks last year. The Lions also catch Seattle down four key members of their defensive front seven. The Seahawks also might be missing starting linebacker Jerome Baker, who is questionable with a hamstring injury. Out for Seattle are Byron Murphy, Leonard Williams, Uchenna Nwosu and Boye Mafe. The Seahawks don't have much of a pass rush without Nwosu and Mafe.

The Seahawks do expect to get back running back Kenneth Walker III. But offensive right tackle George Fant remains out. Backup tackle Stone Forsythe replaces Fant and has the primary responsibility of blocking emerging superstar Aidan Hutchinson, who entered this week leading the NFL in sacks with 6 1/2.

The Cardinals are a team on the rise in Jonathan Gannon's second season. They are dangerous with a healthy Kyler Murray.

It's a great spot for the Cardinals here. Arizona is off a disappointing loss to the Lions and catching the Commanders traveling on a short week following a tremendous road upset of the Bengals.

Jayden Daniels is a star in the making. Right now, though, he's not as good as Murray. Murray also has more dangerous weapons with Marvin Harrison Jr. and James Conner.

Arizona's defense is showing improvement. The Commanders have much farther to go. Washington ranks 30th in scoring defense giving up 29.3 points a game. The Commanders are 31st in pass defense and 29th in total defense.

The Patriots have the worst skill position talent in the league. At best they've been semi-respectable the past couple of years because of Bill Belichick and a solid defense.

That's no longer the case. Belichick is gone and New England's defense is racked by injuries with probably four of their five best defenders out.

New England also picked a bad time to play the 49ers. San Francisco just blew a two-touchdown lead against the Rams last Sunday. The 49ers are expected to get some of their injured players back and they won't be letting up after last week's meltdown.

The Patriots average 13 points. They lack the weapons to trade points with the 49ers, whose system is so strong that even reserves such as Jordan Mason and Jauan Jennings have produced big numbers.

By way of comparison, the 49ers cruised past the Jets, 32-19, opening week. The Jets, in turn, just crushed the Patriots, 24-3. The Patriots were outgained by 261 yards.

Andy Dalton certainly upgrades Carolina. But he's still Andy Dalton, a borderline starting QB who is past his prime. I don't see him coming close to duplicating his success against the Raiders last week against a well-coached Bengals defense. Cincinnati had trouble handling Jayden Daniels' mobility. Dalton is a statue in the pocket.

The Bengals' 0-3 record wouldn't look so bad if the Chiefs hadn't nipped them at the gun on a long field goal.

Cincinnati's offense is showing signs of clicking with Joe Burrow back in star form, Ja'Marr Chase in dominant form and Tee Higgins healthy. Burrow has a 5-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio the past two weeks while throwing for 582 yards.

Carolina has a terrible defense. The Panthers are 3-17 in their last 20 games.

No way can the Bengals fall to 0-4 in the tough AFC North Division. They are in must-win mode.

This game has been bet up. I agree with the line movement. I see New Mexico beating New Mexico State by double-digits in the Rio Grande Rivalry.

New Mexico State is 1-3. New Mexico is 0-4. However, the Lobos have played a far tough schedule going against Montana State, Arizona, Auburn and Fresno State.

The Lobos are showing improvement. The Aggies have shown regression in losing their last three games.

New Mexico produced 485 yards against Fresno State last week. But the Lobos were done in by a negative 3 turnover margin.

New Mexico State can't stop the run, nor pass the ball. The Aggies have had fewer than 75 passing yards in three of their four games. They were gashed on the ground by Sam Houston last week giving up 280 yards rushing. The Aggies have permitted more than 200 yards rushing in each of their last three games. New Mexico has the running backs to take advantage.

Bowling Green distinguished itself well in one-score road losses to Texas A&M and Penn State during its last two games. Now the Falcons get to celebrate homecoming weekend hosting Old Dominion.

It's a step down for Bowling Green. It also leads to a letdown and perhaps concentration lapses for the Falcons.

Old Dominion is a feisty road underdog. The Monarchs are 9-3 ATS (75%) in that role the past two plus seasons under steady coach Ricky Rahne. One of these road covers was this season against South Carolina. The Monarchs lost by four points as 20 1/2-point 'dogs. South Carolina went on to whip Kentucky by 25 points. Kentucky lost to second-ranked Georgia by one point.

The Monarchs should be able to have success on the ground against Bowling Green, which also will keep the clock moving.

I find this line short in a matchup of the defending Super Bowl champions against the Falcons, who are trying to avoid a seventh straight losing season.

The line is short because the Chiefs will be without their best running back, injured Isiah Pacheco, and the Falcons pulled off a dramatic road victory against the Eagles this past Monday night.

It means the Falcons are on a short week and in a letdown spot.

Andy Reid can mix and match running backs to replace Pacheco, who is not an elite player. Patrick Mahomes is. Mahomes has speedsters Rasheed Rice and Xavier Worthy to throw to on a fast track inside Atlanta's dome stadium. That makes Mahomes even more dangerous if that's possible.

Kirk Cousins played better than he did opening week coming back from his Achilles injury. Cousins isn't all the way back, though. His offensive line could encounter trouble from Kansas City's star defensive lineman Chris Jones, who could collapse the pocket on the immobile Cousins.

I don't see the Falcons being strong enough to trade points with Mahomes.

The Seahawks were getting stale under Pete Carroll. Mike Macdonald is a defensive whiz and a promising first-year head coach. I just don't trust his Seahawks laying more than a field goal in this spot. Seattle was fortunate to draw the Broncos and Patriots in its first two games. If it wasn't for a fourth quarter field goal miss by New England, the Seahawks probably would not have beaten the Patriots.

Yeah Tua Tagovailoa is out. I trust offensive guru Mike McDaniel to coach up Skylar Thompson. The Dolphins have had extra preparation time having played last Thursday, Thompson has been in Miami's system for the past three seasons and he has major weapons with De'Von Achane, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Raheem Mostert could be back this week, too, adding to the skill position speed.

Thompson isn't close to Tagovailoa's accuracy, but he's mobile and doesn't have to throw pin-point passes with the speedy stars he has around him.

Seattle is dealing with a major injury, too. Kenneth Walker III missed last week due to an oblique injury. That's likely to cause him to miss this game, too, forcing another top-heavy passing attack from Seattle. The Seahawks are much better off when they are balanced. Miami ranks fifth in pass defense.

I know Bo Nix. I'm holding my nose. But this is a buy-low spot on the Broncos and even more of a sell-high spot on the Buccaneers.

Unbeaten Tampa Bay is fat and happy. The Buccaneers are in a letdown spot after stealing a road game from the Lions last Sunday. Detroit outgained Tampa Bay, 463-216, and had 12 more first downs.

The Buccaneers haven't been this big of a favorite in two years.

Denver is in desperation 0-2 mode after one-score losses to the Seahawks and Steelers.

Baker Mayfield has looked great so far. But the Broncos will be the toughest secondary he's seen this season.

Denver is averaging just one touchdown. Sean Payton is an offensive guru, though, and he knows he has to simplify things for Nix. It has been two games. The Broncos also catch the Buccaneers with multiple defensive injuries. Tampa Bay is going to be without two key defenders, nose tackle Vita Vea and safety Antoine Winfield.

OK, so Michigan isn't going to win the national championship. The Wolverines are down from last year, but not down enough where they can't beat USC at home.

USC isn't top-ranked Texas.

I'm not sold on the Trojans just because they beat defensively-challenged LSU. USC happens to be 1-7 ATS the past eight times when laying points on the road against a ranked opponent.

The Wolverines can run the ball with Donovan Edwards and Kalel Mullings, two of the better running backs in the Big Ten. Michigan coach Sherrone Moore also made the right decision to make a quarterback change to Alex Orji, who can both run and pass.

USC ranked 117th in run defense last year and gave up an average of 4.5 yards rushing to LSU.

I'm going to accept three touchdowns with Arkansas State catching Iowa State in somewhat of a sandwich spot.

The Cyclones were idle last week. But two weeks ago they nipped heated in-state rival Iowa, 20-19. That win already makes the Cyclones successful for the year. Iowa State opens Big 12 Conference play next week at Houston.

So the Cyclones can't be faulted if they don't have a lot of motivation, facing this non-league opponent from the Sun Belt Conference. 

It's a major drop in class for Iowa State. But Arkansas State does have pluses. Red Wolves QB Jaylen Raynor is a dual threat. Arkansas State will have the best wide receiver on the field in Corey Rucker. Iowa State is inexperienced at linebacker and ranks 111th in run defense. 

The Cyclones likely will run the ball a lot. Arkansas State also will try to grind out yards. A heavy dose of running plays keeps the clock moving, which is good when taking a three-touchdown underdog. 

There would be a huge class difference in favor of the Jets if there weren't an injury factor and situational element to this game. But there is, making it even worse for New England.

The Patriots are traveling on a short week with a rookie head coach following an overtime game. Not only do the Patriots lack a downfield passing game - none of their wide receivers have averaged more than 31 receiving yards - but they have a cluster injury problem in their offensive line, which wasn't good to start.

New England will be missing the starting left side of its offensive line. They also could be down their center and right tackle. The Jets have defensive injuries. But their defense is deep enough to take advantage especially when they can stack the line knowing their secondary has no fear of Jacoby Brissett.

Aaron Rodgers has enough weapons to rely on to push the Jets' offense to win by more than a touchdown.