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Stephen Nover CFL Top Picks

Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
07-05-25	BC v. Montreal -150	Top	21-20	Loss	-150	28 h 19 m	Show
The marketplace has reacted to the quarterback information in this matchup by betting against Montreal. Makes sense. BC gets its best QB, Nathan Rourke, back while the Alouettes won't have their starting QB, Davis Alexander, due to a hamstring injury. Rourke had missed the Lions' last two games. Montreal suffered its first loss in four games without Alexander last week, losing to Hamilton, 35-17, on the road. Sure I'd rather have Alexander than McLeod Bethel-Thompson. But Bethel-Thompson should play better this week. The reduction in points is worth it since the Alouttes are home off a loss and have the superior defense. BC has dropped three in a row since an opening week win against winless Edmonton. It's Montreal's first home game since opening week. BC has lost four consecutive road games dating back to last season.
06-28-25	BC +5.5 v. Saskatchewan	Top	18-37	Loss	-115	77 h 41 m	Show
A major part of this handicap is because of the quarterback position. Saskatchewan's star QB, Trevor Harris, didn't practice Wednesday because of a head injury and illness. This was the second straight day Harris didn't practice. Harris has thrown for the second-most yards in the CFL this season. There's a big drop-off from Harris to back-up QB Jake Maier. Harris suffered the injury when he was hit in the head by Toronto's Jordan Williams during the Roughriders' wild, 39-30, win against the Argos last week. "It was a big hit," Saskatchewan coach Corey Mace was quoted as saying about Harris' injury. "We did keep eyes to that, you know what I mean and protecting the players. It's what we're about here in that situation. But also he is dealing with some kind of infection. From this standpoint, we're being careful from the hit to the head." This is Maier's first season with the Roughriders. He had played for Calgary for the previous four seasons, failing to impress. At 3-0, there's no reason for the Roughriders to take a chance playing Harris, especially when he's dealing with a head injury. BC is hoping to get its starting quarterback, Nathan Rourke, back this week. Backup QB Jeremiah Masoli made several key mistakes in costing the Lions a loss against the Blue Bombers last week, which dropped BC's record to 1-2. Rourke has practiced in limited fashion this week. The Lions have several excellent receivers, including league-leader Keon Hatcher and Justin McInnis. Masoli is a veteran with dual threat capability. So all is not lost if Rourke can't go. Saskatchewan's defensive strength is a strong pass rush. The Lions, however, have permitted only two sacks. The Roughriders are 3-0, but they have not been blowing out opponents winning by an average of 5.6 points - and that was with Harris behind center.
06-13-25	Montreal -119 v. Ottawa	Top	39-18	Win	100	53 h 0 m	Show
After being the league's statistical leader following opening week, Ottawa QB Dru Brown has been ruled out for the Redblacks' Week 2 matchup against Montreal. That's a big loss. Replacement QB Matthew Shiltz has CFL experience, but isn't very good. He's thrown 21 TD's in his career, but has been intercepted 20 times. Shiltz will be facing a strong Alouettes defense. Montreal QB Davis Alexander is unbeaten as a starter. He has the receiving depth to attack a vulnerable Redblacks secondary. The Alouettes have dominated this series winning the past eight times, while going 7-1 ATS.
10-25-24	Toronto v. Edmonton Elks +1.5	Top	30-31	Win	100	64 h 31 m	Show
The Toronto Argonauts are 10-7. Edmonton is 6-11. But I fully expect the Elks to beat Toronto. How's that? This is the final week of the regular season. Toronto is in the playoffs. Edmonton is not and won't be. The game is meaningless for the Argonauts. Toronto clinched second-place in the East with a 38-31 win against Ottawa last week. It would be foolish for the Argonauts to risk injuries to starters in this game. So I expect many to sit, or play very little. On the flip side, I expect a big effort from Edmonton. The Elks were idle last week. This is their last game and it comes at home. They have revenge for a three-point road loss to Toronto earlier in the season. Edmonton has been up-and-down, but the Elks are more than capable. The Elks upset Calgary on the road in their last game. They are a youthful team with many jobs on the line for next year. Quarterback Tre Ford is one of those Edmonton players auditioning for next season. He's a dual threat and can cause damage, especially against non-starters.
10-11-24	Toronto v. Winnipeg -3.5	Top	14-11	Loss	-110	69 h 41 m	Show
Hard to believe Winnipeg opened 2-6 with the way the Blue Bombers are playing now. They've won eight in a row and top the CFL power rankings. I'm not going to stand in the Blue Bombers' way as they host Toronto on Friday. Not only are the Blue Bombers looking to lock up the Western Division, but this is a revenge spot. The Argonauts nipped Winnipeg, 16-14 in overtime, at home on July 27. The Blue Bombers haven't lost since. Toronto is 6-2 at home, but 2-5 on the road. The Argos are 4-4 during their past eight games. The Argos have a below average pass defense. If they load up on pass coverage trying to stop Zach Collaros, who has come up big during the second half of this season, they'll be vulnerable to Brady Oliveira, who leads the CFL in rushing.
09-21-24	Winnipeg v. Edmonton Elks +2	Top	27-14	Loss	-110	93 h 28 m	Show
Don't be fooled by Edmonton's 5-8 record. The Elks are 5-1 SU, 6-0 ATS in their last six games, peaking at the right time. Their ground game has picked up and speedy dual threat Tre Ford is back at quarterback. The Elks are averaging 35.1 points in their last six games. They are the best offensive team in the CFL now ranking first in points, rushing yards and No. 2 in total yards. The Elks are playing with tremendous confidence. Being at home is another plus. Winnipeg can't match Edmonton's speed. The Blue Bombers are averaging 22.7 points in their last seven games. It is telling that five of the six writers on CFL.com, the official web site of the CFL, pick Edmonton to win. I concur.
08-25-24	Edmonton Elks +6.5 v. Montreal	Top	17-21	Win	100	119 h 21 m	Show
Montreal has the best record in the CFL at 9-1. I'm not fading the Alouettes. This is a play on Edmonton, which has won three in a row for the first time in six years. The Elks have battled into playoff contention by posting impressive victories against Saskatchewan on the road, BC at home and on the road vs. Hamilton. They've done this by finding a strong ground attack averaging 199.3 rushing yards during the past three games. The Elks lead the CFL in scoring at 29.6 points per game. The Elks can keep this game close by staying on the ground, keeping the ball away from Montreal. The Elks were playing much worse when they lost to Montreal earlier this season, 23-20, as a four-point home 'dog.
08-11-24	BC v. Edmonton Elks OVER 48.5	Top	16-33	Win	100	95 h 57 m	Show
No weather concerns here so expect a lot of scoring. Edmonton is averaging 31 points in its last two home games. Most impressive, though, is the Elks racing to a 42-31 upset road victory against Saskatchewan last Saturday. The Roughriders brought in the CFL's top-ranked run defense. But the Elks exploded for 276 yards rushing. Running back Javon Leake and wide receiver Tevin Jones combined for 292 rushing/receiving yards and five touchdowns against the Roughriders. The oddsmaker set the opening total too low for this game, perhaps influenced by BC not having starting QB Vernon Adams Jr. Replacing the injured Adams is 6-foot-7, 242-pound Jake Dolegala. He played in 13 games, nine starts, for Saskatchewan last year throwing for 2,641 yards and 11 touchdowns. He also wasn't afraid to run. The Lions had scored at least 24 points in every game this season until suffering a 25-0 road loss to Winnipeg last week. That game was back on Aug. 1 so Dolegala has plenty of practice time to get adjusted to being first-string with his new team. The Blue Bombers are the top defensive team in the CFL. It's quite a drop in defensive class going from the Blue Bombers to the Elks, who give up the most yards in the league while ranking second-to-last in scoring defense and pass defense. BC was averaging 29.4 points until losing to Winnipeg.
08-04-24	Toronto v. Calgary -3	Top	23-27	Win	100	116 h 49 m	Show
Aside from upsetting Montreal, Toronto has done nothing on the road this season. The Argonauts, plagued by the worst passing attack in the CFL, lost to Saskatchewan and Hamilton in their other two away games. They were favored in both of those games, too. Calgary is 3-0 SU and ATS at home this year. The Stampeders upset BC in their previous home game two weeks ago. The Stampeders also have won and covered the past two seasons at home against Toronto winning, 20-7, last year and 29-2 in 2022. Calgary has the second-most takeaways and the second-fewest giveaways in the CFL. The Argonauts have been relying on defense and kicker Lirim Hajrullahu. But that won't be enough to score an upset road win here. Toronto is last in passing yards and second-to-the-bottom in total yards per game. Argos quarterback, Cameron Dukes, has thrown just one TD pass in his last five games. Backup Nick Arbuckle isn't any good either. He has one touchdown pass and one interception on 42 attempts this year.
07-25-24	Saskatchewan +4.5 v. Montreal	Top	16-20	Win	100	11 h 27 m	Show
Record-wise these are the two best teams in the CFL. Both have outstanding defenses and both are missing their injured starting quarterbacks. The situation favors Montreal, which had a bye last week and is home. But taking more than a field goal with Saskatchewan makes sense knowing Montreal QB Cody Fajardo is out with a hip injury suffered in the Alouettes' last game, a 37-18 home loss to Toronto. The Roughriders have the top run defense in the league. I don't believe the Alouettes have a strong enough passing game with backup QB Caleb Evans to exploit the Roughriders through the air, especially if they are in unfavorable yardage situations. Saskatchewan has been underrated all season. The Roughriders have the best point spread record in the league at 5-1. Their backup QB, Shea Patterson, is a running threat and Montreal ranks second-to-last in the league in run defense.
10-06-23	Winnipeg v. BC OVER 50.5	Top	34-26	Win	100	23 h 44 m	Show
This is the biggest game of the CFL season so far with Winnipeg and BC tied for first in the West Division each at 11-4. But the real value comes not with trying to come up with the right side, but on the total going Over. Winnipeg is either first or second in the league in the major offensive categories, including scoring and total yards. The Blue Bombers are averaging 36.1 points in their last eight games. The Over has cashed in each of their last five games. Blue Bombers QB Zach Collaros leads the CFL with 30 TD passes. He has four reliable receiving targets, including league receiving yardage leader, Dalton Schoen. Brady Oliveira provides excellent balance for Winnipeg. He's the No. 1 rusher in the CFL with 1,359 yards. BC has gone Over in each of its last four games and five of its past six games. The Lions have scored 29 or more points in six of their last seven games. However, they are surrendering an average of 30.1 points during their last six games. Lions QB Vernon Adams Jr. is coming off a career performance, throwing for 458 yards and three TD's against Saskatchewan. He has a bevy of good targets to throw to. There were 64 points scored when the teams last met back in early August with Winnipeg winning, 50-14. Look for that many points to be scored again except more evenly divided.
09-08-23	Hamilton v. Ottawa -4	Top	27-24	Loss	-110	30 h 13 m	Show
Desperation versus exhaustion should spell a win and cover for host Ottawa. The Redblacks are in circle-the-wagons mode having lost five in a row with three of those defeats coming by a combined seven points. They have double revenge against Hamilton and fully realize this is their last week at getting an opponent that has a losing record. The rest of Ottawa's schedule is against foes that currently all have winning records. There should not be any excuse for the Redblacks because this is a golden spot for them. They were idle last week, while the Tiger-Cats are on a very short week having played rival Toronto this past Monday. The Tiger-Cats went all out trying to come back from a 17-0 deficit before losing to the Argonauts, 41-28. Hamilton gives up the second-most points per game in the league at 27.5 while ranking third-from-the-bottom in total defensive yards. Ottawa dual threat Dustin Crum is a good enough quarterback to take advantage.
08-27-23	Ottawa v. Edmonton Elks	Top	20-30	Win	100	19 h 40 m	Show
Edmonton is the worst team in the Canadian Football League and has lost 22 straight home games. But I'm counting on the Elks to put an end to those two horrible marks. Edmonton is riding momentum for the first time this season following a 24-10 road upset victory against Hamilton last week. That road upset win looks even more impressive after Hamilton upset BC - the third-best team in the CFL - as a 12-point road underdog Saturday night. The Elks finally appear to have a decent QB in dual-threat Tre Ford. He threw for 174 yards and two TD's while rushing for 60 yards on five carries in Edmonton's win against Hamilton. The Elks are averaging 26.5 points in their last two games versus Hamilton and Winnipeg, which has the most victories in the CFL this season and gives up the second-fewest points, with offensive coordinator Jarious Jackson taking over the play-calling for Edmonton. Edmonton gets to go against an Ottawa defense that gives up the most passing yards and third-most overall yards. The Redblacks are 0-4 SU, 1-3 ATS in their last four games. So the arrow finally is pointing up for an Edmonton home victory.
08-13-23	Ottawa +10 v. Toronto	Top	31-44	Loss	-110	9 h 51 m	Show
Being able to stop the run and run the ball effectively with a mobile quarterback is a strong combination when taking double-digits on the road against an overrated opponent. That's how I see things in backing the Ottawa Redblacks against Toronto. The Redblacks are No. 1 in the CFL both in rushing and run defense. Ottawa's QB Denny Crum has given the team a huge lift with his exciting play since taking over from injured Jeremiah Masoli. Crum averages 8.5 yards per carry, highest in the CFL. Crum should present a strong dual threat as Toronto ranks eighth out of nine teams in the league in pass defense. Only once have the Redblacks lost by double-digits. They are capable of springing a major upset like they did against Winnipeg, also as a double-digit 'dog. The Redblacks defeated Calgary three weeks ago, too. Calgary upset Toronto last week. That loss looks worse now for the Argonauts after BC thrashed Calgary, 37-9, last night. That was the Argos' first loss of the season. They are 6-1 and have played only two above .500 opponents. The Argos rank sixth in total yards and yards allowed. That's below average. Toronto will have Chad Kelly at quarterback. Kelly suffered an ankle injury last week, but has been cleared to play. However, Kelly - like Crum - relies on mobility and that mobility could be compromised by his ankle injury. Toronto also is banged-up on defense.
07-30-23	Calgary +2.5 v. Montreal	Top	18-25	Loss	-105	20 h 14 m	Show
There are three elite teams in the CFL - Toronto, BC and Winnipeg. The other six CFL teams are all below .500. Calgary is 2-4. Montreal is 2-3. The Stampeders have a higher ceiling than Montreal. Their won-lost record is a bit misleading with two of their losses coming to BC and Winnipeg. The other two defeats occurred in overtime by a combined five points. Montreal has lost three in a row. Those defeats were to Toronto, Winnipeg and BC by an average of 12.6 points. This really is a must-win spot for the Stampeders since their next four games are against Toronto, BC, Winnipeg and Toronto again. Calgary can't take a loss here to the Alouettes with that murderous schedule ahead of them. The Stampeders rank fifth in both offense and defense yardage. They are the fourth-highest scoring team. QB Jake Maier is off his finest game throwing for 450 yards and four TD's in a 43-41 overtime loss to Ottawa last week. I like the Stampeders to win the battle of the trenches in this one. The Alouettes have allowed a league-worst 26 sacks in just five games. Calgary has covered 75 percent of its last 21 road games going 15-5-1 ATS.
07-23-23	Ottawa +5 v. Calgary	Top	43-41	Win	100	18 h 13 m	Show
Seems strange to say, but the Redblacks might have found their best quarterback in Dustin Crum following season-ending injuries to starter Jeremiah Masoli and Tyrie Adams. You may recall Crum from his Mid-American Conference days with Kent State. He was the MAC Offensive Player of the Year in 2021. Crum rallied Ottawa from a 25-6 deficit to a 31-28 upset overtime victory against Winnipeg last week. Crum accounted for 261 yards passing and another 103 yards rushing. This was against a Blue Bombers defense that gives up the second-fewest yards per game in the CFL. Ottawa is now 2-3, same as Calgary. The Stampeders needed to pull out a 33-31 win against Saskatchewan last week to reach that mark. The Stampeders have not shown to be very good this season. Calgary is giving up an average of 28 points its last three games. The Stampeders haven't faced many mobile QB's such as Crum either. Ottawa ranks No. 2 in the CFL in fewest points allowed per game. The Redblacks defense should hold up against Calgary QB Jake Maier, who ranks in the bottom half among the passing yardage leaders in what has been a down year for CFL quarterbacks. The Redblacks not only hold quarterback and defensive edges, but also get the checkmark on special teams. Calgary has given up a league-worst seven big return plays on special teams. The Stampeders have fared poorly spread-wise at home, too, covering only 25 percent of their last 28 home games going 7-21 ATS.
07-22-23	Saskatchewan v. BC -10	Top	9-19	Push	0	98 h 38 m	Show
There are three powerful teams in the Canadian Football League this season - BC, Winnipeg and Toronto. Saskatchewan is at least two tiers below the Lions and could sink even more with its starting quarterback, Trevor Harris, out with injury. The Roughriders are 3-2. But two of those victories were against 0-6 Edmonton and the Roughriders only beat the Elks by a combined five points. BC ranks No. 2 in points per game and yards per game. But the Lions really shine on defense, which is bad news for untested Saskatchewan backup QB Mason Fine. The Lions have the best defense in the CFL ranking No. 1 in fewest points and yards allowed. They also are No. 1 in pass defense and have the second-most sacks. BC also has a scheduling break coming off a bye. The Lions have film on Fine since he played after Harris suffered a serious knee injury in last Saturday's loss to Calgary. The Roughriders are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games and 0-5 ATS in their past five games versus above .500 opponents. BC has covered its last five home games.
07-15-23	Calgary +1.5 v. Saskatchewan	Top	33-31	Win	100	76 h 43 m	Show
Saskatchewan is 3-1 this season while Calgary is 1-3. But don't be deceived by those records. The Roughriders own two victories against 0-5 Edmonton by a combined five points. Their other win was a 29-26 upset overtime win against Calgary three weeks ago. Look for the Stampeders to get their revenge in this rematch. The Stampeders' other two losses were to powerful BC and Winnipeg, whose combined record is 8-2. Saskatchewan is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games and has failed to cover its last four home games. "We know we have to be better,'' Roughriders coach Craig Dickenson admitted. Calgary is in near must-win mode. This is the Stampeders' fifth game. Their offensive line and QB, Jake Maier, should start showing improvement by this stage. Calgary is more talented than Saskatchewan. The Roughriders are dealing with a heavy injury list, too. The Roughriders had a dozen players held out of practice among them kicker Brett Lauther, defensive back Rolan Milligan and defensive lineman Anthony Lanier II. The Stampeders are 11-2-1 ATS the last 14 times following a loss. They have covered in six of their last eight visits to Saskatchewan.
07-14-23	Toronto -5 v. Montreal	Top	35-27	Win	100	33 h 54 m	Show
This price is too short. Unbeaten Toronto has outscored its three opponents by an average of 17 points in going 3-0 SU and ATS. Montreal opened with victories against Ottawa and Hamilton - whose combined record is 2-6 - but got crushed the past two weeks when stepping up in class losing to BC by 16 points and to Winnipeg by 14. Toronto is another step-up game for Montreal. I don't see the Alouettes hanging within single digits. The Argonauts should dominate the line of scrimmage. They are averaging nearly four sacks a game and have a ballhawking secondary. Montreal hasn't been able to protect QB Cody Fajardo giving up more than five sacks per game. Toronto has the top rushing attack in the CFL with AJ Ouellette and Andrew Harris along with an athletic QB in Chad Kelly. Montreal is the home team, but this spot is very much against the Alouettes. Toronto is off a bye. The Alouettes had to play in Vancouver this past Sunday and then make the nearly 3,000-mile trip back to Montreal. All of this on a short week with this being a Friday game.
07-07-23	Calgary +8.5 v. Winnipeg	Top	11-24	Loss	-110	19 h 15 m	Show
Coming off a bye, 1-2 Calgary has a chance to get back into contention in the tough West Division. Teams off a bye are 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS this season in the CFL. Winnipeg is 3-1. But its offense and defense have yet to both play well in a game. The Blue Bombers gave up an average of 29.3 points during their first three games. They held Montreal to three points in a 17-3 win last week. The Alouettes average just 20 points. They rank fourth-from-the-bottom in points and yards gained per game. Montreal picked up 363 yards despite scoring only three points. There was bad weather in that game, too. So I'm looking for the Stampeders to put up their share of points against a Blue Bombers defense that ranks below average in opponent yards per play. Calgary QB Jake Maier has played much better after struggling opening week against BC's top-ranked defense. The Stampeders have scored 26 points in each of their past two games while averaging 418 yards during this span. Maier averaged 310 yards passing in the last two games while throwing four touchdowns. Calgary suffered wide receiver injuries, but gets back Reggie Begelton this week from a rib injury that kept him out of the Stampeders' last game. The Blue Bombers have scored just 23 points in their last two games. There are some strong trends that favor Calgary: The Stampeders are 11-1-1 ATS after not covering in their previous game, which they failed to do with an overtime loss to Saskatchewan, and they are 12-3-1 ATS during their last 16 road games.
06-24-23	Saskatchewan +3.5 v. Calgary	Top	29-26	Win	100	20 h 12 m	Show
These teams are close to even. But Calgary's home field isn't worth this many points. Saskatchewan has a quarterback edge, too, with Trevor Harris against Jake Maier. The Stampeders also have a pair of key skill position injuries. So I find good value taking Saskatchewan at more than a field goal. Calgary showed a good run defense against Ottawa last week. However, the Roughriders can hurt the Stampeders through the air. Harris has four quality receivers. He passed for 413 yards and three TD's in a 45-27 shootout loss to Winnipeg last week. Saskatchewan opened its season with a 17-13 upset road victory against Edmonton. The Stampeders have just one TD pass in their two games. Maier will be without star running back Ka'Deem Carey again and wide receiver Reggie Begelton is out, too. Begelton is Calgary's leading in receptions and receiving yards. Calgary has failed to cover during 20 of its past 27 home games.
06-22-23	BC v. Winnipeg OVER 49	Top	30-6	Loss	-110	53 h 41 m	Show
These are the two best teams in the Canadian Football League. I expect offense to dominate. Winnipeg is averaging 43.5 points and 447 yards, both league-leading marks. BC is second in yards per game at 427. The Blue Bombers averaged 30 points last season and ranked No. 3 in yards. The Lions led the league in yards per game last year while also averaging 30 points. So this is a heavyweight offensive matchup. I don't see BC being able to stop Blue Bombers QB Zach Collaros, who has thrown for the most yards and TD's in the league so far this season. Collaros turns 35 this season, but is in top form. He has an elite receiver in Dalton Schoen. Winnipeg also has a dangerous return specialist in Janarion Grant. BC QB Vernon Adams Jr. is second in passing yardage. The big question is can Adams fill the shoes of departed star QB Nathan Rourke. I believe he can because of his mobility and big arm. So I'm expecting Adams to trade points with Collaros resulting in a high-scoring game.
06-17-23	Edmonton Elks v. BC OVER 46	Top	0-22	Loss	-110	18 h 33 m	Show
BC is home after posting a 25-15 road win against Calgary opening week on June 8. The Lions led the CFL in points scored at home last season, averaging 32.1 points in nine games. Look for the Lions to produce a big point total in this matchup based on how good QB Vernon Adams Jr. looked during preseason and in Week 1 throwing for 300 yards. BC rolled up 421 yards of offense. The Lions' found a good running back in Taquan Mizzell, who rushed for 81 yards on 12 carries. Adams won't have injured Lucky Whitehead, but he has other quality wideouts, including star Dominique Rhymes. I see Edmonton have difficulty trying to cover Rhymes, Alexander Hollins and Jevon Cottoy while also having to pay attention to Mizzell. The Elks have gone Over in eight of their last 10 road games. Edmonton opened its season with a 17-13 home loss to Saskatchewan. I'm expecting Elks QB Taylor Cornelius to play better than he did against the Roughriders. He was comfortable throwing to Eugene Lewis, who hauled in five receptions for 148 yards.
06-16-23	Winnipeg -6.5 v. Saskatchewan	Top	45-27	Win	100	22 h 44 m	Show
Winnipeg and Saskatchewan each opened the season with victories. But that's where the similarities end. The Blue Bombers are much better than the Roughriders. So I have no qualms laying a touchdown with them on the road. The Blue Bombers came within two points of winning the Grey Cup last season going 16-4 on the season, including playoffs. Winnipeg has most of its core players back, including QB Zach Collaros, RB Brady Oliveria and WR Dalton Schoen. The Blue Bombers have defeated Saskatchewan seven straight times, including going 3-0 last season. They rolled past the Roughriders by a combined 52 points during the past two meetings. Collaros was in good form in Winnipeg's, 42-31, opening week victory against Hamilton throwing for 354 yards and three TD's. The Blue Bombers compiled 499 yards of offense. Hamilton's 31 points were misleading. Defense and special teams played a big role in accumulating that total. The Blue Bombers held Ticats' QB Bo Levi Mitchell to 200 yards passing, picking him off twice. Saskatchewan was 6-12 last year, 3-6 at home. The Roughriders nipped Edmonton, 17-13, on the road in Week 1. The Roughriders forced three turnovers, but gave up 202 passing yards. The Roughriders also suffered some key injuries. Wide receiver Derel Walker, who scored their lone TD last week, is out with a knee injury and QB Trevor Harris suffered a bruised hip late in the game. Harris is likely to play, but he may not be 100 percent. I don't see him and Saskatchewan's offense keeping up with Winning's attack. I expect the Blue Bombers to be sharper in Week 2 after committing four turnovers against Hamilton yet still winning by 11 points.
09-02-22	Ottawa +5.5 v. Montreal	Top	38-24	Win	100	72 h 52 m	Show
Ottawa has covered during each of its last NINE visits to Montreal. That's a strong historical trend. But there is much more as to why I like the underdog Redblacks to cover if not win straight-up. The Redblacks have covered four of their five road games this season. Montreal is a money-burner at home covering only four of its last 14 home contests. Ottawa has a respectable defense. The Redblacks are giving up an average of 19.5 points in their last four games. Montreal has won two in a row. But the Alouettes may have lost that winning momentum since they last played on Aug. 20. This is just their third game since Aug. 11. Their two victories in a row came by three in overtime and by one point. The Alouettes have surrendered an average of 31.6 points in their last three home games. Ottawa looks like it has gotten its offense back on track with Nick Arubckle returning at quarterback. He helped spark the Redblacks to a 25-18 road upset victory against Edmonton as a short underdog in Ottawa's last game. The Redblacks don't need to have a dominant offense to upset Montreal. They can accomplish this via ball-control with Arbuckle providing steady quarterback play and Devonte Williams running the ball. Williams is in line for a big game facing a Montreal defense that ranks second-to-last in run defense giving up 5.3 yards per carry on the ground and 10 rushing TD's.
07-29-22	BC -125 v. Saskatchewan	Top	32-17	Win	100	29 h 55 m	Show
Saskatchewan could be far closer to full strength than it was last week because of injuries and a COVID-19 outbreak. The Roughriders aren't a very good team, though, even if healthy. They lost and failed to cover against Toronto in their last two games. The Roughriders gave up an average of 30.5 points to the Argos in those two games. The Roughriders have played an easy schedule. BC is the first strong Western Division foe Saskatchewan has faced. BC is 4-1 with the lone loss occurring to two-time defending Grey Cup champion Winnipeg. The Lions rank No. 1 in totals yards and points per game. They also give up the fewest yards per game on defense along with ranking first in pass defense. Roughriders QB Cody Fajardo sat out last week due to a knee injury. Jake Dolegala filled in for Fajardo and completed just 46 percent of his throws. Fajardo is likely to return here, but his mobility may be limited. Saskatchewan last played this past Sunday. So the Roughriders are on a short week. BC, by contrast, last played on July 21. So the Lions are on extra rest and prep time.
07-22-22	Winnipeg v. Edmonton Elks OVER 47	Top	24-10	Loss	-110	45 h 10 m	Show
Winnipeg is coming off a season-high 43-point scoring performance against BC, who gives up the fewest yards per game in the CFL. Now the Blue Bombers step way down in defensive class facing Edmonton. The Elks have the worst defensive numbers in the league, including allowing a CFL-worst 36.7 points per game. QB Zach Collaros is off to an excellent start despite the Blue Bombers breaking in many new faces on offense. Winnipeg hasn't found a bell cow running back, but Collaros has found chemistry with his old receiving target from Hamilton, Greg Ellingson, and Dalton Schoen. Those two receivers have combined for 699 receiving yards, 44 receptions and six TD's in five games. Collaros has a 5-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio in 68 attempts during his past two games. The Elks rank last in pass defense while also surrendering the most passing TD's. So Collaros is in line for another big performance. Edmonton should do its part to help get this total Over. Winnipeg gives up the fewest points per game. However, the Blue Bombers' defensive statistics don't match that lofty No. 1 mark as Winnipeg ranks eighth in pass defense and sixth in total defense.
07-09-22	Winnipeg v. BC -3	Top	43-22	Loss	-120	69 h 39 m	Show
Both Winnipeg and British Columbia are unbeaten. But statistically and situational-wise these teams are not that close. BC is much superior. The Lions rank first in the CFL in the major categories in both offense AND defense. They have allowed just two sacks in three games. Nathan Rourke has opened the season with the highest completion percentage in any three-game span in CFL history going 88-for-105 for 83.8 percent. The Blue Bombers average fewer than 22 points. They rank second-to-last in yards and are last in pass defense. They were fortunate to nip 1-2 Toronto last week in a 23-22 victory. The Lions average the most yards in the league while giving up the fewest yards per game. They are the No. 1 passing and scoring team. Their defense is No. 1 against the pass and No. 2 against the run. Winnipeg is getting a lot of respect based on its 4-0 record and being the defending Grey Cup champions. Right now, though, BC is the best team in the league. The spot sets up well, too, for the Lions as the Blue Bombers will be making the 1,318-mile, cross-country journey.
07-04-22	Winnipeg -4.5 v. Toronto	Top	23-22	Loss	-110	34 h 30 m	Show
This was supposed to be a down season for two-time defending CFL champion Winnipeg. But the Blue Bombers are 3-0. Their stout defense is giving up just 13 points per game in victories against Hamilton and Ottawa twice. The Blue Bombers are disciplined, well-coached under Mike O'Shea and won't beat themselves. That should prove to be enough to win by more than a touchdown against Toronto. The Argos nipped Montreal, 20-19, in their opener failing to cover as 3-point home favorites. However, the 1-1 Argos were buried by BC, 44-3, in their last game raising a huge red flag about just how good they are. Toronto surrendered 583 yards and 35 first downs in that loss. The Argos' defense last forced a two-and-out during the opening drive of their season-opener. The Blue Bombers feature two top pass rushers in Willie Jefferson and Jackson Jeffocats. Toronto has a banged-up offensive line and a vulnerable defense. So I see Winnipeg covering for the ninth time in the last 11 meetings against the Argos.
07-01-22	Edmonton Elks v. Hamilton -7	Top	29-25	Loss	-110	17 h 22 m	Show
Both Edmonton and Hamilton are 0-3 on the season. But these are different types of 0-3. Rebuilding Edmonton averages 18 points a game and has the worst defense in the CFL. Hamilton's three losses have come to Calgary, Winnipeg and Saskatchewan. Those three opponents have a combined record of 8-1. Now the Tiger-Cats finally get to step down in class - way down in class. This is the Tiger-Cats' second home game. They were nipped by Calgary, 33-30 in overtime, during their first home game. Hamilton is 14-6-1 ATS in its last 21 home contests. Edmonton is giving rookie QB Tre Ford his first start. This is a tough road setting for Ford, who replaces Nick Arbuckle. Ford couldn't beat out Arbuckle during preseason. Ford has thrown three passes, completing one throw for eight yards. One of his passes was intercepted. The Elks are going to be without injured James Wilder Jr., their best running back. Note, too, that the Tiger-Cats have covered the last four times they've played Edmonton.
06-30-22	BC v. Ottawa OVER 47	Top	34-31	Win	100	48 h 41 m	Show
The spot isn't great for British Columbia traveling on a short week. But the Lions' offense has gotten off to a great start averaging 51.5 points and 526 yards per game. Both lead the CFL. Nathan Rourke has quieted any critics so far with his quarterback play for BC. The Over has cashed in seven of the Lions' last eight games going back to last season. Ottawa should do its part to push this total Over behind QB Jeremiah Masoli. The Redblacks have played two games - both against defending Grey Cup champion Winnipeg and its stout defense. The Lions' defensive numbers are inflated because they played a pair of weak offenses, Edmonton and Toronto. Those two teams rank last and second-to-last offensively. Ottawa and the veteran Masoli should produce much better numbers against the Lions than the Elks and Argonauts did. Expect the Redblacks to be fresh and have a strong offensive design since they were idle last week.
10-25-19	Calgary -140 v. Winnipeg	Top	28-29	Loss	-140	72 h 10 m	Show
The teams just met last Saturday with Calgary winning, 37-33, but failing to cover as 6 1/2-point home favorites. The Stampeders won that game without star defensive back Tre Roberson, who has seven interceptions, and Don Jackson, one of the better RB's in the CFL. Both practiced on Tuesday and are expected to play. The Stampders have motivation trying to win the West Division. They are tied for first with Saskatchewan. Winnipeg is at low ebb having lost four of its past five games. Calgary holds a huge QB edge with Bo Levi Mitchell. The Blue Bombers may have third-stringer Zach Collaros as their starting QB. Chris Streveler, who was filling in for injured Matt Nichols, was limping during the Stampeders' win last week. Streveler was on crutches Tuesday. Collaros hasn't played since Week 1. Winnipeg is 2-6-1 ATS the past nine times hosting Calgary.
08-02-19	Ottawa +7.5 v. Montreal	Top	30-27	Win	100	9 h 26 m	Show
The Alouettes are on a three-game win streak and favored for the first time this season. This isn't a little number either. Montreal hasn't won four straight games since 2014. I'm not sold that the Alouettes can cover a touchdown. They are off a bye. But I don't see that as a good thing. It can slow their momentum. It's a big plus for the Redblacks if they get starting quarterback Dominque Davis back for this game. I think Davis plays. But if he doesn't, I like Ottawa at this price anyways. Backup QB Jonathon Jennings was a lot better in his second start completing 15 of 18 passes and the Redblacks defense has looked better. Ottawa has covered 70 percent of its past 37 road games and is 6-0 ATS the past six times playing at Montreal.
08-01-19	Hamilton v. Saskatchewan -2.5	Top	19-24	Win	100	33 h 40 m	Show
I don't see Hamilton beating Saskatchewan on the road after losing its starting quarterback, Jeremiah Mosaoli, for the season this past Friday after Masoli suffered a torn ACL. The Tiger-Cats have to turn to second-year QB Dane Evans. The Roughriders are back home after a pair of victories against British Columbia. They have momentum and revenge for a 23-17 road loss to Hamilton opening week. The Roughriders have dominated the Tiger-Cats at home going 17-4-1 ATS. Saskatchewan QB Cody Fajardo is ahead of his counterpart Evans. Fajardo has made five CFL starts and is coming off a 21-for-26 passing game and 46 yards rushing.
07-26-19	Winnipeg v. Hamilton UNDER 53	Top	15-23	Win	100	55 h 25 m	Show
This is the marquee matchup on the CFL Week 7 card. It's easy to think offense with these two teams. But I'm going defense. Winnipeg has given up the fewest points and second-fewest yards in the CFL. Hamilton isn't as good offensively as its season numbers show. The Tiger-Cats' numbers are skewed by getting to play three games against Toronto and Montreal. Those are the two worst defenses in the league. The Tiger-Cats were held under 260 yards by Calgary and Saskatchewan when they stepped up. Hamilton has surrendered 17 or fewer points in three of its five games. Winnipeg QB Matt Nichols had a huge game against Ottawa last week. Nichols, though, isn't nearly that good. These teams have a strong Under history with the low side winning 16 of the past 21 times.
07-25-19	Calgary -5 v. Ottawa	Top	17-16	Loss	-105	50 h 22 m	Show
I like Calgary in a revenge spot for an opening week, 32-28, loss to Ottawa as a 9-point home favorite. The Stampeders have won three of their last four games since then. Their defense has improved giving up an average of 18.6 points a game during their past three games. Nick Arbuckle has been doing a solid job at quarterback for Calgary replacing injured Bo Levi Mitchell. Ottawa really is struggling offensively scoring 14, 19 and one point during its last three games. The RedBlacks have a long injury list headed by quarterback Dominique Davis. Minus Davis and wide receiver R.J. Harris, Ottawa was held to 12 first downs and 175 yards in its 31-1 loss to Winnipeg last Friday. I don't see the RedBlacks solving their problems, especially at quarterback, in time for this matchup.
08-04-18	BC v. Calgary UNDER 50.5	Top	18-27	Win	100	56 h 52 m	Show
Calgary is the best team in the Canadian Football League and a huge reason for that is a defense that is on pace to give up the fewest opponent offensive touchdowns in CFL history. The Stampeders are holding foes to less than 12 points per game. I don't see BC denting this dominant defense. The Lions are third from the bottom in scoring. They haven't broken the 22-point barrier in four of their five games. Travis Lulay has been BC's starting quarterback the past two games replacing an ineffective Jonathon Jennings. Lulay has moved the team better, but he's past his prime, on the road and hasn't faced a defense close to this caliber. The teams combined to average just 39 points during their two meetings last season with Calgary winning, 21-17, and 27-13 at home. BC and Calgary each have a strong recent history of going Under in August. The under is 6-0-1 in the Lions' last seven August games while Calgary has gone below the total in seven of its past eight August matchups.
06-28-18	Ottawa v. Calgary UNDER 57	Top	14-24	Win	100	32 h 56 m	Show
This is the highest over/under on the Week 3 Canadian Football League card. It's justified if you look at how strong these offenses looked last week. Ottawa scored 40 points against Saskatchewan. Calgary reeled off 41 points against Toronto. But what's being overlooked by this high total is Calgary's tremendous defense and the situation the Stampeders are in. Calgary has allowed only 21 points all season. They are No. 1 in pass defense and run defense. The Stampeders find themselves in a tough spot here. They just played at Toronto on Saturday. So this is a very short week for them. It's such a short week they only were able to get in one practice, which did not go well, according to sources. The short week is going to hurt Calgary's offense more than its defense especially this being so early in the season. Ottawa's defense was sharp in its 40-17 victory versus the Roughriders last Thursday. The Redblacks were idle opening week. So they are going to be the fresher team. Most of the Roughriders' passing yards came in garbage time as Ottawa entered the final quarter leading, 33-14. Calgary has a history of going Under early in the season. The Under has cashed in 79 percent of the Stampeders' past 24 June games.
06-22-18	Hamilton +7 v. Edmonton	Top	38-21	Win	100	33 h 16 m	Show
Hamilton has become a much better team since June Jones took over. The Tiger-Cats nearly pulled the upset against Calgary last week, but Jeremiah Masoli threw a late interception and Calgary scored a touchdown while running out the clock resulting in a misleading 28-14 final. The Tiger-Cats have covered the past five times following a loss. They've also enjoyed excellent ATS success in Edmonton covering the past five times there. Edmonton had to scramble to nip Winnipeg last week, 33-30. Edmonton was the only CFL road winner during Week 1. The Eskimos host unbeaten BC next week so this is a bit of an early season sandwich spot for them. The Eskimos have failed to cover in 13 of their last 19 home games. The Eskimos showed some defensive vulnerability in beating the Blue Bombers. This series has been close with each of the last six head-to-head matchups being decided by a touchdown or less.
06-21-18	Saskatchewan v. Ottawa UNDER 51	Top	17-40	Loss	-115	31 h 20 m	Show
Saskatchewan may have its best defense since Chris Jones became the Roughriders coach three seasons ago. Jones is a top-notch defensive coach so that's saying a lot. Saskatchewan held Toronto, the defending Grey Cup champions, to 19 points and fewer than 300 yards in last week's 27-19 home win. The Roughriders, though, weren't sharp on offense. The Under has won in 10 of the Roughriders' last 11 games. Ottawas was the lone team that didn't play opening week. So the Redblacks are going to be rusty and operating against a strong defense that has already played a game. Saskatchewan has a very good defensive front seven and Ottawa quarterback, Trevor Harris, still isn't 100 percent from knee and ankle injuries he suffered during preseason. Harris should start, but the Redblacks are likely to have a conservative game plan since they also have a banged-up and an unsettled offensive line. The Redblacks have been a strong Under team going 12-4-1 to the under during their last 17 games.
10-09-17	Edmonton -7 v. Montreal	Top	42-24	Win	100	102 h 35 m	Show
Edmonton overachieved when it opened the season 7-0. But the Eskimos aren't as bad as their current six-game losing streak shows with five of the defeats coming to Calgary, Winnipg and Saskatchewan. Those teams own the three best records in the CFL. Look for the Eskimos to halt their losing streak against Montreal, the worst team in the CFL. The Alouettes haven't been good for a few years. They've struggled offensively, but had a decent defense. Now their defense has fallen apart surrendering an average of 38 points per game during their last seven games, all losses and non-covers. Montreal's offense remains bad, too, failing to break the 20-point barrier in all but one of those seven defeats. Montreal management tried to shake things up firing head coach Jacques Chapdelaine and defensive coordinator Noel Thorpe a couple of weeks ago. That hasn't helped. The Alouettes have lost their last two games by a combined 62 points. Edmonton needs to improve its ground attack. The Eskimos took a key step to doing just that trading for C.J. Gable, who just gained 157 yards on 18 carries and scored two touchdowns for Hamilton last week. Gable should rev up Edmonton's offense. The Eskmos have covered six of the last seven in the series.
09-04-17	Edmonton +10.5 v. Calgary	Top	18-39	Loss	-110	7 h 17 m	Show
The Eskimos are calling this their biggest game of the year. The line is inflated so the Eskimos with this many points are the right side. Edmonton has lost two in a row after opening 7-0. I don't see the Eskimos being flat a second straight week. The Eskimos are starting to get their injured players back, including wide receiver Brandon Zylstra. Wide receivers Adarius Bowman and Vidal Hazelton both are expected to play now, too, along with offensive lineman Simeon Rottier. The Stampeders are the best team in the CFL. But Calgary hasn't played an above .500 opponent during its last four games. I don't see the Stampeders winning by double-digits here.
08-25-17	Saskatchewan +6 v. Edmonton	Top	54-31	Win	100	33 h 33 m	Show
Saskatchewan is coming on and this spot sets up well for the Roughriders. The Roughriders have won three of their last five and off probably their most impressive performance of the season beating BC, 41-8, two weeks ago. Saskatchewan was idle last week. Both their offensive and defensive line played well for Saskatchewan in that win against BC. Kevin Glenn has thrown 14 TD passes in seven games. Edmonton lost for the first time this season falling on the road to Winnipeg last week. The Eskimos may be down following that defeat. They also have a huge look-ahead matchup for their next game when they meet Calgary with first place in the Western Division at stake. Given their lengthy injury list, it's not surprising the Eskimos finallly lost after opening with seven consecutive victories. They have close to 20 players hurt, including JC Sherritt, Adarius Bowman, John White, Brandon Zylstra, Almondo Sewell and Marcus Howard. The Roughriders have lost 15 straight road games versus division foes. Expect that to change with Chris Jones in charge. This is just Jones' second year as Roughriders coach. He's one of the top coaches in the league. Edmonton has failed to cover in 10 of its last 14 home games. The Eskimos also haven't covered during their past three games against the Roughriders with two of the past three going into overtime.
08-04-17	Winnipeg v. Ottawa -2.5	Top	33-30	Loss	-110	29 h 16 m	Show
Winnipeg is 3-2. Ottawa is 1-4-1. But the Redblacks are favored here. What does that tell you? It tells me the oddsmaker believes the Redblacks are going to win. And I fully agree. The defending Grey Cup champion Redblacks have played a very tough schedule. They are better than their record having gone 5-1 ATS. Their average losing margin is 2.5 points a game. Their record could be just the opposite with a few breaks. This time Ottawa is in a good spot. The Redblacks had a much needed bye last week while Winnipeg is coming off a victory for the ages nipping Montreal, 41-40, last Thursday. The Blue Bombers scored two touchdowns in the final 48 seconds to pull out the victory scoring on the final play after recovering an on-side kick. I respect Winnipeg's offense, but the Blue Bombers have a porous defense. Giving up 40 points to the Alouttes is downright scary. The Blue Bombers are surrendering an average of 35.8 points per game during their last five games and must deal with the league's top quarterback-to-receiver tandem in Trevor Harris and Greg Ellingson. The Redblacks have won four of the last five meetings against the Blue Bombers, too.
07-28-17	BC +2 v. Edmonton	Top	26-37	Loss	-105	19 h 18 m	Show
The teams met opening week at BC and the Eskimos won, 30-27, as 4 1/2-point road 'dogs. Edmonton still hasn't lost. The Eskimos are 4-0. So why fade the lone unbeaten team in the CFL? The short answers are the Lions are the better team right now, Edmonton is due to lose with its four victories coming by a combined 12 points for an average win of three points and BC revenge motivation. The Eskimos have covered only three of their last 12 home games. BC has won four in a row. The Lions have won and covered all three of their road games beating Toronto by 13, Montreal by seven and Hamilton by 15. BC has improved since its Week 1 loss to Edmonton. QB Travis Lulay has been a revelation filling in for injured starter Jonathon Jennings. The Lions are averaging 43 points during their last two games with Lulay behind center. BC's secondary also has shown major improvement. Edmonton struggled versus winless Hamilton last week before pulling out a 31-28 win. The Eskimos have injuries on defense and will be minus suspended cornerback Garry Peters against BC.
07-24-17	Ottawa v. Toronto -135	Top	24-27	Win	100	64 h 1 m	Show
There are frequent scheduling quirks in the CFL. This is one of them - and it favors Toronto in a big way. Ottawa will be playing for the third time in 11 days. During this span, the Redblacks hosted Toronto - losing by a point - lost at Edmonton and got past Montreal at home this past Wednesday. They are 1-7 ATS following a victory and facing serious fatigue issues. The Argonauts, on the other hand, last played on July 13. They will be the far fresher team and have the advantage of being home with plenty of time to game plan. Toronto coach Marc Trestman is good at three things - devising game plans, working with quarterbacks and coaching in the CFL. He's much more in his element in the CFL than he was in the NFL. It's probably not a coincidence Ricky Ray has passed for 300 yards in each of Toronto's first four games. The last time Ray, a probable CFL Hall of Famer, had a string of four straight 300-yard passing games was 2009. Toronto has the better defense sparked by linebacker Bear Woods, who is averaging nearly seven tackles a game. Ray is going to put up points against Ottawa. Toronto beat the Redblacks in Ottawa earlier this month. Now the Argonauts are home and given the situational circumstances, should have little difficulty winning again.
07-21-17	Winnipeg +4 v. BC	Top	42-45	Win	100	19 h 57 m	Show
Winnipeg has covered in five of its last six visits to British Columbia. Yet this is a huge revenge spot for the Blue Bombers, who were nipped 32-31 during their last visit to BC. That came in the playoffs last season and ended the Blue Bombers' year. Both teams are playing well. But this is a good spot for Winnipeg, which has covered the past seven times it has met a foe with a winning mark. BC could be a bit fat and happy coming home after being on the road for three straight games - all victories. These games all were in the Eastern time zone being in Toronto, Montreal and Hamilton. British Columbia is in the Pacific time zone. The last time BC played at home was opening week. The Lions lost that game to Edmonton, 30-27, as 4 1/2-point favorites. The Lions will be minus their outstanding quarterback, Jonathon Jennings. He got hurt against Hamilton last week. So career backup-type Travis Lulay took over and proceeded to throw for 436 yards, most in CFL history for a quarterback coming off the bench. That certainly was impressive. It also came against a bad Hamilton defense. Winnipeg will be prepared for Lulay, who isn't nearly that good. The Blue Bombers do an excellent job of disguising their coverages and also are opportunistic on defense. An outright Blue Bombers victory would not be a surprise.
07-13-17	Toronto v. Winnipeg -3	Top	25-33	Win	100	79 h 37 m	Show
Winnipeg didn't get the job done against Calgary this past Friday losing 29-10 after leading at halftime. Then, again, the Blue Bombers never beat the Stampeders having lost 17 of the past 18 times to them, including nine straight at home. Calgary probably was the best team in the CFL last season. The Stampeders are likely the best team this year. So there's no shame in losing to them. The Blue Bombers' offense is much better than they showed against the Stampeders. I see them bouncing back to beat Toronto, a very bad road team. The Argonauts are off a rare road victory. They nipped Ottawa, the defending Grey Cup champion, 26-25, as four-point road 'dogs this past Thursday. Toronto had failed to cover in its previous six road contests. The Argos also are just 3-12 ATS in their last 15 overall games. They are 1-4 ATS following a victory. Winnipeg is playing for just the third time. This is Toronto's fourth game and the Argos played this past Saturday. So they are traveling again having played only five days ago. Winnipeg is the fresher team. Blue Bombers QB Matt Nichols has played well since becoming the starter in Game 6 last year. Sparked by Nichols, the Blue Bombers went 11-7 and qualified for the playoffs for the first time since 2011. Nichols is off his worst game, though. So he should be highly motivated, especially at home, to play much better this weak against a much weaker opponent. Nichols has a lot going with 10 returning starters, including his entire offensive line. He has all-star running back Andrew Harris and veteran wideouts Darvin Adams, Clarence Denmark and Weston Dressler. The Blue Bombers are opportunistic defensively leading the league in takeaways last season with 59. Toronto ranks third-from-the-bottom in scoring per game this season.
11-04-16	Winnipeg v. Ottawa UNDER 51.5	Top	33-20	Loss	-110	44 h 29 m	Show
Winnipeg doesn't want to win this game and Ottawa doesn't care. That sums up things and should result in a close-to-the-vest low-scoring matchup. The teams met last week and Ottawa won, 23-10, on the road. The Blue Bombers aren't concerned with revenge because if they win here they risk drawing an early matchup with Calgary in the playoffs. Calgary is 15-2, four games better than the next best team in the CFL. So Winnipeg very well could be tanking. Ottawa, though, has no interest in this game either. The victory last week clinched first place in the East Division and a bye through to the East finals for the Redblacks. Ottawa coach Rick Campbell wants to rest his key players. He's come out and said starting quarterback Henry Burris won't play and second-string QB Trevor Harris will play very little if at all. That means third-string quarterback Brock Jensen and fourth-string quarterback Danny O'Brien will be under center for the Redblacks. Jensen hasn't started a game since he played for North Dakota State in 2013. So this matchup is going to resemble an exhibition game with neither coach wanting to risk injury to a key skill position player.
10-10-16	Calgary v. Toronto OVER 52	Top	48-20	Win	100	41 h 32 m	Show
First off, the weather is going to be fine for this day game with temperatures in the 50's with no rain and little wind. Calgary is averaging 38.3 points in nine of its last 10 games. Toronto ranks second-to-last in scoring defense allowing 30 points per game. Yet the total isn't as high as it should be because the linesmaker doesn't trust the Argonauts' offense with fill-in quarterback Drew Willy throwing to many unknown targets. Toronto released four of its receivers this past Monday. The Argonauts had scored a combined 23 points in their last two games. So those receivers weren't doing anything. The CFL is a passing league. Eager rookies now will get the chance. Willie is a five-year veteran. He's been with the team for three weeks and got his first start for the Argonauts last week. He'll be more comfortable in the system. I think the downgrade is too strict given the Stampeders' powerful offense and Toronto's weak defense, a defense that has yielded 29 or more points in six of the past eight games. The Argonauts surrendered 38 points to Montreal last week. Montreal ranks second-to-last in scoring at 22.1 points per game. Calgary is the top scoring team in the league averaging 34.1 points. The Stampeders should just about be able to cover this total themselves. Calgary's defense isn't as good as its offense. The Stampeders have allowed at least 23 points in five of their last six games.
10-07-16	Saskatchewan +7 v. Ottawa	Top	32-30	Win	100	31 h 51 m	Show
Forget the records here that show Ottawa leading the Eastern Division with a 6-6 record and Saskatchewan last in the Western Division at 3-10. Saskatchewan plays in the much superior Western Division and is coming off two straight victories. The Roughriders have covered in their last five games. They still are mathematically alive for a playoff spot. Ottawa has failed to cover in seven of its last nine games going 3-6 straight-up. The Redblacks have yet to cover in five meetings versus Western Conference foes. They also are 1-5 ATS at home. The Roughriders' offense has picked up behind quarterback Darian Durant and their defense has surrendered less than 20 points per game during their last three games. Roughriders coach Chris Jones has a strong defensive mastermind reputation. His team finally is buying into his intricate defensive system. Ottawa is giving up 27.3 points per game. The Redblacks win with offense, but are down perhaps their best offensive lineman, left tackle SirVincent Rogers. The Roughriders also have had two weeks to prepare being idle last week. Saskatchewan won the first meeting, 30-29, back in Week 5 as a six-point underdog. The timing is ripe for the Roughriders to pull a similar upset.
09-16-16	Montreal v. Hamilton -10	Top	17-20	Loss	-112	32 h 23 m	Show
These two teams met two months ago and Hamilton buried Montreal, 31-7, despite not playing an "A" game, or having quarterback Zach Collaros. Now the timing is even worse for Montreal. The Tiger-Cats scored 11 points versus the Blue Bombers in their last game before Collaros was named the starter. In five games since then, Hamilton is averaging 37 points during its past five games. Collaros has a 112.7 quarterback rating with a 15-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Hamilton is off a flat spot having just lost to Toronto, 33-21, after beating the Argonauts, 49-36, at home two weeks ago. The Tiger-Cats are 11-5 ATS the past 16 times following a non-cover. They've won by double-digits the past two times at home following a road defeat. But not only is this a play-on spot for Hamilton, but it's a heavy fade, too, against Montreal. The Alouettes are in turmoil. They are 3-8 on the season (2-8 ATS in their last 10 games) and have a lot of dissension. Montreal coach and general manager Jim Popp traded quarterback Kevin Glenn before his team's last game. Second-year man Rakeem Cato is now the Alouettes' quarterback and he's clashed with his receivers. This past Tuesday Cato had to be removed from the practice field after shouting and pushing the team's leading receiver, Duron Carter. The two had gotten into a spat the previous week, too. This is what Carter was quoted as saying this past Wednesday, "We lost a quarterback (Glenn). It's not helping our team. ... There's no way we can say we're better without Kevin." This isn't exactly a ringing endorsement for Cato. Carter had been suspended earlier this season. The players aren't happy with Popp. The locker room, according to sources, is a train wreck. Montreal scored one touchdown on offense last week. During the previous five games, the Alouettes have scored fewer than 19 points four times. If you can't score in the CFL you can't cover.
09-10-16	Saskatchewan +10.5 v. Winnipeg	Top	10-17	Win	100	100 h 19 m	Show
Saskatchewan isn't going anywhere at 1-9. The Roughriders' season is essentially finished - except for this game. This is going to be their Super Bowl. These two teams just met this past Sunday in their annual Labour Day Classic. The Roughriders lost in controversial fashion. They outgained the Blue Bombers, but fell 28-25 on a field goal during the final play of the game. Winnipeg probably should not have been in position to win the game because the referees disallowed an interception by Justin Cox with 28 seconds left instead penalizing him for pass interference even though it was reported that Cox had provided textbook coverage on the play. The Blue Bombers should be feeling fat and happy having won five in a row and returning home for the first time since Aug. 12. They are in a prime ambush spot with the Roughriders in short revenge. Winnipeg has played worse at home than on the road. The Blue Bombers are 1-3 SU and ATS at home this season and have failed to cover eight of the past 11 times they've met a foe with a losing record.
09-04-16	Winnipeg v. Saskatchewan +4.5	Top	28-25	Win	100	11 h 56 m	Show
Winnipeg is hot with four straight victories that have coincided since Matt Nichols was installed as its starting quarterback. Saskatchewan is 1-8, 3-6 ATS. But those records can be thrown out in this annual Labour Day Classic. The game is a sell-out in Saskatchewan. It's also the Roughriders' season. If they can't get a win here - in a home game they are going all out to win - then there really is no pulse on the team. I'm expecting the Roughriders to play their best game of the year fortified with returning injured offensive linemen and wide receiver Rob Bagg back. Saskatchewan has won four of the past five times hosting Winnipeg. The Blue Bombers haven't been favored since opening week. Now they're laying more than a field goal in an annual rivalry Labour Day matchup. I'm not buying it. This marks Winnipeg's third consecutive road game, too.
08-28-16	Hamilton +4.5 v. Calgary	Top	24-30	Loss	-110	25 h 5 m	Show
It's a rough to fade Calgary, but the Stampeders have a bit of a cushion in the West Division and could be in letdown mode. Even if they aren't, though, Hamilton always plays the Stampeders tough. In all but two of the last eight meetings, the games have been decided by less than a touchdown. Calgary is 3-0 the past three times meeting the Tiger-Cats. However, the combined margin of victory in those three games is by a total of eight points. Hamilton has covered the past five times when playing in Calgary. The Tiger-Cats have picked up their game with the return of QB Zach Collaros. Hamilton has scored 31 or more points in four of its last five games. The Tiger-Cats are proven road warriors, too, covering 70 percent of their last 20 away contests.
08-26-16	Winnipeg +2.5 v. Montreal	Top	32-18	Win	100	98 h 8 m	Show
Montreal has the second-worst record in the Canadian Football League. The Alouettes were 1-5 in their last six games - with all the losses occurring by double-digits - until they upset Ottawa last Friday as nine-point road 'dogs. The Alouettes are 0-5 ATS following a win and have failed to cover in six of their last seven home games. I don't think they are very good and a fluke victory doesn't change that opinion. It just sets up a letdown scenario for Montreal against the rested and hot Blue Bombers. Sparked by quarterback Matt Nichols, Winnipeg has won three in a row. The Blue Bombers beat Edmonton on the road, Hamilton at home and Toronto on the road by a combined 50 points. All three of those opponents are .500 teams. The Blue Bombers were underdogs in each game. The Blue Bombers were idle last week and are expected to get several key injured starters back, including their top receivers. In the meantime, Nichols has found good chemistry with Clarence Denmark, Kris Adams, Jace Davis and Thomas Mayo. Winnipeg leads the CFL in takeaways and its secondary can get an added boost with the return of Chris Randle and Macho Harris. The Blue Bombers should have plenty of depth now that they are healthier. The timing is right, too, off a bye and catching Montreal in a letdown spot. The Alouettes have been favored only once - and that was against the worst team in the league, Saskatchewan - and they shouldn't be favored here.
08-06-16	Edmonton +4 v. Ottawa	Top	20-23	Win	100	21 h 20 m	Show
The defending Grey Cup champion Eskimos are finding out that repeating isn't going to be easy. They have lost their last two games - both as solid home favorites. It's the first time Edmonton has lost two in a row since 2014. Now the Eskimos go on the road to play Ottawa where they are underdogs for the first this season. Look for the Eskimos to bounce back. They won their lone away game this season and are 8-2 ATS following a straight-up loss. Edmonton opened its season with a 45-37 overtime loss to the Redblacks so there also is a strong revenge factor. There is nothing wrong with Edmonton's offense. Quarterback Mike Reilly leads the CFL in passing yards and touchdown passes per game. Reilly is attacking a banged-up Redblacks secondary down several veteran starters. The Eskimos certainly should put up their share of points and they're due to play much better because the talent is there.
08-03-16	Hamilton -140 v. Winnipeg	Top	11-37	Loss	-140	55 h 54 m	Show
If you think wide receivers are valuable in the NFL, watch a CFL game. That's really all about passing and it's a key factor why host Winnipeg is in major trouble this week with a cluster injury problem at wide receiver. The Blue Bombers are down Darvin Adams, Weston Dressler and Ryan Smith. That's their No. 1, No. 2 and No. 5 leading receivers. They also are down several defensive backs. Road teams have covered an astonishing 19 of 24 games this season. The Tiger-Cats are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 away contests. Winnipeg is 0-3 SU and ATS at home. The Blue Bombers have failed to cover the past four times they've hosted the Tiger-Cats. This also is a big revenge game for Hamilton. The Blue Bombers stunned the Tiger-Cats on the road winning, 28-24, as 9-point 'dogs. Hamilton outgained Winnipeg in that game but was done in by five turnovers. The Tiger-Cats have been pointing to this matchup having been idle since July 23. Hamilton has been a far better road team going 3-0 SU and ATS beating Montreal, Toronto and Edmonton by a combined 52 points. The Tiger-Cats rank No. 1 in total defense while the Blue Bombers are last giving up nearly 100 more yards per game than Hamilton. The Blue Bombers have covered just 28 percent the past 24 times they've met an above .500 opponent.
07-31-16	Toronto +10.5 v. Ottawa	Top	23-20	Win	100	15 h 53 m	Show
The number is inflated because Ottawa starting quarterback Henry Burris is back after missing five games with a finger injury, while Logan Kilgore makes his first start replacing injured No. 1 quarterback Ricky Ray for Toronto. These teams just played each other on July 13. The score was tied 20-20 with 2:49 left when the Redblacks returned a punt 75 yards for a touchdown in a 30-20 final. Burris could be rusty. That's a possibility. But I also believe Kilgore will be ready having had all week to practice with the first unit. Kilgore looked good in preseason and will be coached up by Scott Milanovich, who has a strong reputation for developing quarterbacks. Also in Kilgore's favor is the Argonauts have improved their ground attack ranking in the middle after finishing last in 2015. Toronto's offensive line is coming around, too, allowing only one sack in its last game, a victory against Montreal, which has a top-four defense. The Argonauts should be primed for a big effort not only because it's short revenge, but also rallying around their replacement quarterback.
07-29-16	BC +5 v. Calgary	Top	41-44	Win	100	58 h 49 m	Show
Road teams have been gold this CFL season. B.C. has contributed to that going 2-0 SU and ATS in its two away matchups. The Lions aren't strong at quarterback, but they compensate for that with a league-leading running attack and outstanding defense that ranks No. 1 in fewest yards allowed per game. The Lions' ground attack can take advantage of Calgary's defensive line injuries making it easier for quarterback Jonathon Jennings to pick his spots. The Lions upset Calgary, 20-18, opening week as 2 1/2-point 'dogs. Now they are off a bye and the pointspread is doubled. It wasn't a fluke the Lions won the first meeting as they outgained the Stampeders while running off 17 more plays. Calgary's only two wins have been against Winnipeg, which has the worst record in the league at 1-4. The Lions have outgained each of their first four opponents. The line is inflated because of Calgary's revenge angle and perhaps the oddsmaker not fully buying into the much improved Lions.
07-25-16	Montreal +7 v. Toronto	Top	17-30	Loss	-135	85 h 21 m	Show
Road teams have been gold this CFL season going 13-3-1 and 15-2 against the spread through Thursday. Toronto has been part of this home field problem going 0-2 at their new BMO Field, losing by an average of 16 points to Hamilton and Ottawa. A crowd of less than 10,000 is expected so the Argonauts don't have a strong home field despite their new digs. This has been a road team series, too, with the visitor winning nine of the last 10 times. Montreal has a strong defense, but the CFL's weakest offense. A large part of the Alouettes' problems on offense have been because of injuries, including an eye injury to quarterback Kevin Glenn. But Glenn has been taking first-team reps this week after missing last week's game and is expected to start. That should give the Alouettes a needed boost. The Alouettes do have a strong defense. Toronto averages fewer than 24 points a game and ranks last in yards gained. So this is a lot of points for the Argos to lay.
07-15-16	Hamilton -120 v. Montreal	Top	31-7	Win	100	29 h 31 m	Show
Yes, there's a certain risk in getting behind Hamilton quarterback Jeremiah Masoli. He can be a turnover machine, but he's also passed for 933 yards, completed better than 71 percent of his throws and has five touchdown passes in three games. Masoli is highly mobile, too. Montreal has played decently on defense, but hasn't faced a quarterback who can operate sideline to sideline like Masoli can. Montreal has a number of key injuries with the latest being quarterback Kevin Glenn apparently out due to an inflamed left eye. That leaves the Alouettes' offense in the hands of untested Rakeem Cato. So not only do the Alouettes have to make do with Cato, but they remain without their starting center while breaking in new receivers. Road teams have fared extremely well during the first three weeks of the season entering this Week 4 covering 83 percent. Hamilton should be in circle-the-wagons mode after losing two straight home games. The Tiger-Cats are 1-0 on the road beating Toronto by 22 points as an underdog. That was the 12th time in its last 16 tries that Hamilton has covered on the road. Montreal has failed to cover in its last four home contests.
07-08-16	Saskatchewan +11 v. Edmonton	Top	36-39	Win	100	54 h 2 m	Show
This is just too many points for Edmonton to give up considering the defense and coaching of their opponent. Saskatchewan surrendered just 186 passing yards and 66 rushing yards to Toronto in its lone game this season. However, the Rough Riders lost because of turnovers - including a fumble return brought back for a touchdown - and bad special teams play. Saskatchewan quarterback Darian Durant looked good in the loss completing 31 of 48 throws for 310 yards and a touchdown. Look for Coach Chris Jones to clean that up. You know the Rough Riders are going to be tough under Jones, who knows the Eskimos having coached them to the Grey Cup last season before leaving for Saskatchewan this season along with his coaching staff. Edmonton also lost in its lone game this season. The Eskimos really appeared to be missing Jones as they gave up 45 points to Ottawa. The Eskimos not only are minus Jones, one of the top defensive minds in the CFL, but also are in heavy rebuilt mode at linebacker and in the secondary.
07-01-16	Winnipeg v. Calgary -8.5	Top	22-36	Win	100	78 h 15 m	Show
Calgary is double-digits better than Winnipeg especially when playing at home. The oddsmaker opened the Stampeders a little light because Calgary was upset by BC last Saturday, 20-18. That was the Stampeders' first season-opening loss since 2011 and should prove a wake-up call especially after blowing an 11-point second half lead. The last time Calgary lost two games in a row in a season was early in 2012. That's the longest streak in Canadian pro football history. Calgary is 21-6 ATS following a loss. Winnipeg is a bottom-three team that looked bad in losing at home to Montreal to start the season last week. Drew Willy was sacked five times and didn't look good. The Blue Bombers are averaging just 17.2 points during their last four games. So their poor offensive performance wasn't a surprise.
06-24-16	Montreal v. Winnipeg UNDER 50.5	Top	22-14	Win	100	52 h 24 m	Show
These teams are familiar with each other having just recently played a preseason game in which there were fewer than 50 points scored. Winnipeg upgraded its defense during the preseason particularly in the defensive line and at linebacker. Montreal has a strong defense led by defensive end John Bowman, who led the CFL with 19 sacks last year. The Alouettes have weapons, but quarterback Kevin Glenn is 37 and doesn't have a solid backup. The Alouettes also have a young, untested offensive line that will be missing star tackle Josh Bourke and injured center Luc Brodeur-Jourdain. Those are two key missing pieces. There also are a number of strong trends that point to an under in this matchup. Montreal has gone below the total in 18 of its last 21 games played in June. The Alouettes also are 16-6 to the under in their past 22 away contests. Winnipeg is 6-1-1 to the under in its last eight home games and only has gone above the total just four times during its last 16 overall games.

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