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Stephen Nover CFL Top Picks

Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
10-25-19	Calgary -140 v. Winnipeg	Top	28-29	Loss	-140	72 h 10 m	Show
The teams just met last Saturday with Calgary winning, 37-33, but failing to cover as 6 1/2-point home favorites. The Stampeders won that game without star defensive back Tre Roberson, who has seven interceptions, and Don Jackson, one of the better RB's in the CFL. Both practiced on Tuesday and are expected to play. The Stampders have motivation trying to win the West Division. They are tied for first with Saskatchewan. Winnipeg is at low ebb having lost four of its past five games. Calgary holds a huge QB edge with Bo Levi Mitchell. The Blue Bombers may have third-stringer Zach Collaros as their starting QB. Chris Streveler, who was filling in for injured Matt Nichols, was limping during the Stampeders' win last week. Streveler was on crutches Tuesday. Collaros hasn't played since Week 1. Winnipeg is 2-6-1 ATS the past nine times hosting Calgary.
08-02-19	Ottawa +7.5 v. Montreal	Top	30-27	Win	100	9 h 26 m	Show
The Alouettes are on a three-game win streak and favored for the first time this season. This isn't a little number either. Montreal hasn't won four straight games since 2014. I'm not sold that the Alouettes can cover a touchdown. They are off a bye. But I don't see that as a good thing. It can slow their momentum. It's a big plus for the Redblacks if they get starting quarterback Dominque Davis back for this game. I think Davis plays. But if he doesn't, I like Ottawa at this price anyways. Backup QB Jonathon Jennings was a lot better in his second start completing 15 of 18 passes and the Redblacks defense has looked better. Ottawa has covered 70 percent of its past 37 road games and is 6-0 ATS the past six times playing at Montreal.
08-01-19	Hamilton v. Saskatchewan -2.5	Top	19-24	Win	100	33 h 40 m	Show
I don't see Hamilton beating Saskatchewan on the road after losing its starting quarterback, Jeremiah Mosaoli, for the season this past Friday after Masoli suffered a torn ACL. The Tiger-Cats have to turn to second-year QB Dane Evans. The Roughriders are back home after a pair of victories against British Columbia. They have momentum and revenge for a 23-17 road loss to Hamilton opening week. The Roughriders have dominated the Tiger-Cats at home going 17-4-1 ATS. Saskatchewan QB Cody Fajardo is ahead of his counterpart Evans. Fajardo has made five CFL starts and is coming off a 21-for-26 passing game and 46 yards rushing.
07-26-19	Winnipeg v. Hamilton UNDER 53	Top	15-23	Win	100	55 h 25 m	Show
This is the marquee matchup on the CFL Week 7 card. It's easy to think offense with these two teams. But I'm going defense. Winnipeg has given up the fewest points and second-fewest yards in the CFL. Hamilton isn't as good offensively as its season numbers show. The Tiger-Cats' numbers are skewed by getting to play three games against Toronto and Montreal. Those are the two worst defenses in the league. The Tiger-Cats were held under 260 yards by Calgary and Saskatchewan when they stepped up. Hamilton has surrendered 17 or fewer points in three of its five games. Winnipeg QB Matt Nichols had a huge game against Ottawa last week. Nichols, though, isn't nearly that good. These teams have a strong Under history with the low side winning 16 of the past 21 times.
07-25-19	Calgary -5 v. Ottawa	Top	17-16	Loss	-105	50 h 22 m	Show
I like Calgary in a revenge spot for an opening week, 32-28, loss to Ottawa as a 9-point home favorite. The Stampeders have won three of their last four games since then. Their defense has improved giving up an average of 18.6 points a game during their past three games. Nick Arbuckle has been doing a solid job at quarterback for Calgary replacing injured Bo Levi Mitchell. Ottawa really is struggling offensively scoring 14, 19 and one point during its last three games. The RedBlacks have a long injury list headed by quarterback Dominique Davis. Minus Davis and wide receiver R.J. Harris, Ottawa was held to 12 first downs and 175 yards in its 31-1 loss to Winnipeg last Friday. I don't see the RedBlacks solving their problems, especially at quarterback, in time for this matchup.
08-04-18	BC v. Calgary UNDER 50.5	Top	18-27	Win	100	56 h 52 m	Show
Calgary is the best team in the Canadian Football League and a huge reason for that is a defense that is on pace to give up the fewest opponent offensive touchdowns in CFL history. The Stampeders are holding foes to less than 12 points per game. I don't see BC denting this dominant defense. The Lions are third from the bottom in scoring. They haven't broken the 22-point barrier in four of their five games. Travis Lulay has been BC's starting quarterback the past two games replacing an ineffective Jonathon Jennings. Lulay has moved the team better, but he's past his prime, on the road and hasn't faced a defense close to this caliber. The teams combined to average just 39 points during their two meetings last season with Calgary winning, 21-17, and 27-13 at home. BC and Calgary each have a strong recent history of going Under in August. The under is 6-0-1 in the Lions' last seven August games while Calgary has gone below the total in seven of its past eight August matchups.
06-28-18	Ottawa v. Calgary UNDER 57	Top	14-24	Win	100	32 h 56 m	Show
This is the highest over/under on the Week 3 Canadian Football League card. It's justified if you look at how strong these offenses looked last week. Ottawa scored 40 points against Saskatchewan. Calgary reeled off 41 points against Toronto. But what's being overlooked by this high total is Calgary's tremendous defense and the situation the Stampeders are in. Calgary has allowed only 21 points all season. They are No. 1 in pass defense and run defense. The Stampeders find themselves in a tough spot here. They just played at Toronto on Saturday. So this is a very short week for them. It's such a short week they only were able to get in one practice, which did not go well, according to sources. The short week is going to hurt Calgary's offense more than its defense especially this being so early in the season. Ottawa's defense was sharp in its 40-17 victory versus the Roughriders last Thursday. The Redblacks were idle opening week. So they are going to be the fresher team. Most of the Roughriders' passing yards came in garbage time as Ottawa entered the final quarter leading, 33-14. Calgary has a history of going Under early in the season. The Under has cashed in 79 percent of the Stampeders' past 24 June games.
06-22-18	Hamilton +7 v. Edmonton	Top	38-21	Win	100	33 h 16 m	Show
Hamilton has become a much better team since June Jones took over. The Tiger-Cats nearly pulled the upset against Calgary last week, but Jeremiah Masoli threw a late interception and Calgary scored a touchdown while running out the clock resulting in a misleading 28-14 final. The Tiger-Cats have covered the past five times following a loss. They've also enjoyed excellent ATS success in Edmonton covering the past five times there. Edmonton had to scramble to nip Winnipeg last week, 33-30. Edmonton was the only CFL road winner during Week 1. The Eskimos host unbeaten BC next week so this is a bit of an early season sandwich spot for them. The Eskimos have failed to cover in 13 of their last 19 home games. The Eskimos showed some defensive vulnerability in beating the Blue Bombers. This series has been close with each of the last six head-to-head matchups being decided by a touchdown or less.
06-21-18	Saskatchewan v. Ottawa UNDER 51	Top	17-40	Loss	-115	31 h 20 m	Show
Saskatchewan may have its best defense since Chris Jones became the Roughriders coach three seasons ago. Jones is a top-notch defensive coach so that's saying a lot. Saskatchewan held Toronto, the defending Grey Cup champions, to 19 points and fewer than 300 yards in last week's 27-19 home win. The Roughriders, though, weren't sharp on offense. The Under has won in 10 of the Roughriders' last 11 games. Ottawas was the lone team that didn't play opening week. So the Redblacks are going to be rusty and operating against a strong defense that has already played a game. Saskatchewan has a very good defensive front seven and Ottawa quarterback, Trevor Harris, still isn't 100 percent from knee and ankle injuries he suffered during preseason. Harris should start, but the Redblacks are likely to have a conservative game plan since they also have a banged-up and an unsettled offensive line. The Redblacks have been a strong Under team going 12-4-1 to the under during their last 17 games.
10-09-17	Edmonton -7 v. Montreal	Top	42-24	Win	100	102 h 35 m	Show
Edmonton overachieved when it opened the season 7-0. But the Eskimos aren't as bad as their current six-game losing streak shows with five of the defeats coming to Calgary, Winnipg and Saskatchewan. Those teams own the three best records in the CFL. Look for the Eskimos to halt their losing streak against Montreal, the worst team in the CFL. The Alouettes haven't been good for a few years. They've struggled offensively, but had a decent defense. Now their defense has fallen apart surrendering an average of 38 points per game during their last seven games, all losses and non-covers. Montreal's offense remains bad, too, failing to break the 20-point barrier in all but one of those seven defeats. Montreal management tried to shake things up firing head coach Jacques Chapdelaine and defensive coordinator Noel Thorpe a couple of weeks ago. That hasn't helped. The Alouettes have lost their last two games by a combined 62 points. Edmonton needs to improve its ground attack. The Eskimos took a key step to doing just that trading for C.J. Gable, who just gained 157 yards on 18 carries and scored two touchdowns for Hamilton last week. Gable should rev up Edmonton's offense. The Eskmos have covered six of the last seven in the series.
09-04-17	Edmonton +10.5 v. Calgary	Top	18-39	Loss	-110	7 h 17 m	Show
The Eskimos are calling this their biggest game of the year. The line is inflated so the Eskimos with this many points are the right side. Edmonton has lost two in a row after opening 7-0. I don't see the Eskimos being flat a second straight week. The Eskimos are starting to get their injured players back, including wide receiver Brandon Zylstra. Wide receivers Adarius Bowman and Vidal Hazelton both are expected to play now, too, along with offensive lineman Simeon Rottier. The Stampeders are the best team in the CFL. But Calgary hasn't played an above .500 opponent during its last four games. I don't see the Stampeders winning by double-digits here.
08-25-17	Saskatchewan +6 v. Edmonton	Top	54-31	Win	100	33 h 33 m	Show
Saskatchewan is coming on and this spot sets up well for the Roughriders. The Roughriders have won three of their last five and off probably their most impressive performance of the season beating BC, 41-8, two weeks ago. Saskatchewan was idle last week. Both their offensive and defensive line played well for Saskatchewan in that win against BC. Kevin Glenn has thrown 14 TD passes in seven games. Edmonton lost for the first time this season falling on the road to Winnipeg last week. The Eskimos may be down following that defeat. They also have a huge look-ahead matchup for their next game when they meet Calgary with first place in the Western Division at stake. Given their lengthy injury list, it's not surprising the Eskimos finallly lost after opening with seven consecutive victories. They have close to 20 players hurt, including JC Sherritt, Adarius Bowman, John White, Brandon Zylstra, Almondo Sewell and Marcus Howard. The Roughriders have lost 15 straight road games versus division foes. Expect that to change with Chris Jones in charge. This is just Jones' second year as Roughriders coach. He's one of the top coaches in the league. Edmonton has failed to cover in 10 of its last 14 home games. The Eskimos also haven't covered during their past three games against the Roughriders with two of the past three going into overtime.
08-04-17	Winnipeg v. Ottawa -2.5	Top	33-30	Loss	-110	29 h 16 m	Show
Winnipeg is 3-2. Ottawa is 1-4-1. But the Redblacks are favored here. What does that tell you? It tells me the oddsmaker believes the Redblacks are going to win. And I fully agree. The defending Grey Cup champion Redblacks have played a very tough schedule. They are better than their record having gone 5-1 ATS. Their average losing margin is 2.5 points a game. Their record could be just the opposite with a few breaks. This time Ottawa is in a good spot. The Redblacks had a much needed bye last week while Winnipeg is coming off a victory for the ages nipping Montreal, 41-40, last Thursday. The Blue Bombers scored two touchdowns in the final 48 seconds to pull out the victory scoring on the final play after recovering an on-side kick. I respect Winnipeg's offense, but the Blue Bombers have a porous defense. Giving up 40 points to the Alouttes is downright scary. The Blue Bombers are surrendering an average of 35.8 points per game during their last five games and must deal with the league's top quarterback-to-receiver tandem in Trevor Harris and Greg Ellingson. The Redblacks have won four of the last five meetings against the Blue Bombers, too.
07-28-17	BC +2 v. Edmonton	Top	26-37	Loss	-105	19 h 18 m	Show
The teams met opening week at BC and the Eskimos won, 30-27, as 4 1/2-point road 'dogs. Edmonton still hasn't lost. The Eskimos are 4-0. So why fade the lone unbeaten team in the CFL? The short answers are the Lions are the better team right now, Edmonton is due to lose with its four victories coming by a combined 12 points for an average win of three points and BC revenge motivation. The Eskimos have covered only three of their last 12 home games. BC has won four in a row. The Lions have won and covered all three of their road games beating Toronto by 13, Montreal by seven and Hamilton by 15. BC has improved since its Week 1 loss to Edmonton. QB Travis Lulay has been a revelation filling in for injured starter Jonathon Jennings. The Lions are averaging 43 points during their last two games with Lulay behind center. BC's secondary also has shown major improvement. Edmonton struggled versus winless Hamilton last week before pulling out a 31-28 win. The Eskimos have injuries on defense and will be minus suspended cornerback Garry Peters against BC.
07-24-17	Ottawa v. Toronto -135	Top	24-27	Win	100	64 h 1 m	Show
There are frequent scheduling quirks in the CFL. This is one of them - and it favors Toronto in a big way. Ottawa will be playing for the third time in 11 days. During this span, the Redblacks hosted Toronto - losing by a point - lost at Edmonton and got past Montreal at home this past Wednesday. They are 1-7 ATS following a victory and facing serious fatigue issues. The Argonauts, on the other hand, last played on July 13. They will be the far fresher team and have the advantage of being home with plenty of time to game plan. Toronto coach Marc Trestman is good at three things - devising game plans, working with quarterbacks and coaching in the CFL. He's much more in his element in the CFL than he was in the NFL. It's probably not a coincidence Ricky Ray has passed for 300 yards in each of Toronto's first four games. The last time Ray, a probable CFL Hall of Famer, had a string of four straight 300-yard passing games was 2009. Toronto has the better defense sparked by linebacker Bear Woods, who is averaging nearly seven tackles a game. Ray is going to put up points against Ottawa. Toronto beat the Redblacks in Ottawa earlier this month. Now the Argonauts are home and given the situational circumstances, should have little difficulty winning again.
07-21-17	Winnipeg +4 v. BC	Top	42-45	Win	100	19 h 57 m	Show
Winnipeg has covered in five of its last six visits to British Columbia. Yet this is a huge revenge spot for the Blue Bombers, who were nipped 32-31 during their last visit to BC. That came in the playoffs last season and ended the Blue Bombers' year. Both teams are playing well. But this is a good spot for Winnipeg, which has covered the past seven times it has met a foe with a winning mark. BC could be a bit fat and happy coming home after being on the road for three straight games - all victories. These games all were in the Eastern time zone being in Toronto, Montreal and Hamilton. British Columbia is in the Pacific time zone. The last time BC played at home was opening week. The Lions lost that game to Edmonton, 30-27, as 4 1/2-point favorites. The Lions will be minus their outstanding quarterback, Jonathon Jennings. He got hurt against Hamilton last week. So career backup-type Travis Lulay took over and proceeded to throw for 436 yards, most in CFL history for a quarterback coming off the bench. That certainly was impressive. It also came against a bad Hamilton defense. Winnipeg will be prepared for Lulay, who isn't nearly that good. The Blue Bombers do an excellent job of disguising their coverages and also are opportunistic on defense. An outright Blue Bombers victory would not be a surprise.
07-13-17	Toronto v. Winnipeg -3	Top	25-33	Win	100	79 h 37 m	Show
Winnipeg didn't get the job done against Calgary this past Friday losing 29-10 after leading at halftime. Then, again, the Blue Bombers never beat the Stampeders having lost 17 of the past 18 times to them, including nine straight at home. Calgary probably was the best team in the CFL last season. The Stampeders are likely the best team this year. So there's no shame in losing to them. The Blue Bombers' offense is much better than they showed against the Stampeders. I see them bouncing back to beat Toronto, a very bad road team. The Argonauts are off a rare road victory. They nipped Ottawa, the defending Grey Cup champion, 26-25, as four-point road 'dogs this past Thursday. Toronto had failed to cover in its previous six road contests. The Argos also are just 3-12 ATS in their last 15 overall games. They are 1-4 ATS following a victory. Winnipeg is playing for just the third time. This is Toronto's fourth game and the Argos played this past Saturday. So they are traveling again having played only five days ago. Winnipeg is the fresher team. Blue Bombers QB Matt Nichols has played well since becoming the starter in Game 6 last year. Sparked by Nichols, the Blue Bombers went 11-7 and qualified for the playoffs for the first time since 2011. Nichols is off his worst game, though. So he should be highly motivated, especially at home, to play much better this weak against a much weaker opponent. Nichols has a lot going with 10 returning starters, including his entire offensive line. He has all-star running back Andrew Harris and veteran wideouts Darvin Adams, Clarence Denmark and Weston Dressler. The Blue Bombers are opportunistic defensively leading the league in takeaways last season with 59. Toronto ranks third-from-the-bottom in scoring per game this season.
11-04-16	Winnipeg v. Ottawa UNDER 51.5	Top	33-20	Loss	-110	44 h 29 m	Show
Winnipeg doesn't want to win this game and Ottawa doesn't care. That sums up things and should result in a close-to-the-vest low-scoring matchup. The teams met last week and Ottawa won, 23-10, on the road. The Blue Bombers aren't concerned with revenge because if they win here they risk drawing an early matchup with Calgary in the playoffs. Calgary is 15-2, four games better than the next best team in the CFL. So Winnipeg very well could be tanking. Ottawa, though, has no interest in this game either. The victory last week clinched first place in the East Division and a bye through to the East finals for the Redblacks. Ottawa coach Rick Campbell wants to rest his key players. He's come out and said starting quarterback Henry Burris won't play and second-string QB Trevor Harris will play very little if at all. That means third-string quarterback Brock Jensen and fourth-string quarterback Danny O'Brien will be under center for the Redblacks. Jensen hasn't started a game since he played for North Dakota State in 2013. So this matchup is going to resemble an exhibition game with neither coach wanting to risk injury to a key skill position player.
10-10-16	Calgary v. Toronto OVER 52	Top	48-20	Win	100	41 h 32 m	Show
First off, the weather is going to be fine for this day game with temperatures in the 50's with no rain and little wind. Calgary is averaging 38.3 points in nine of its last 10 games. Toronto ranks second-to-last in scoring defense allowing 30 points per game. Yet the total isn't as high as it should be because the linesmaker doesn't trust the Argonauts' offense with fill-in quarterback Drew Willy throwing to many unknown targets. Toronto released four of its receivers this past Monday. The Argonauts had scored a combined 23 points in their last two games. So those receivers weren't doing anything. The CFL is a passing league. Eager rookies now will get the chance. Willie is a five-year veteran. He's been with the team for three weeks and got his first start for the Argonauts last week. He'll be more comfortable in the system. I think the downgrade is too strict given the Stampeders' powerful offense and Toronto's weak defense, a defense that has yielded 29 or more points in six of the past eight games. The Argonauts surrendered 38 points to Montreal last week. Montreal ranks second-to-last in scoring at 22.1 points per game. Calgary is the top scoring team in the league averaging 34.1 points. The Stampeders should just about be able to cover this total themselves. Calgary's defense isn't as good as its offense. The Stampeders have allowed at least 23 points in five of their last six games.
10-07-16	Saskatchewan +7 v. Ottawa	Top	32-30	Win	100	31 h 51 m	Show
Forget the records here that show Ottawa leading the Eastern Division with a 6-6 record and Saskatchewan last in the Western Division at 3-10. Saskatchewan plays in the much superior Western Division and is coming off two straight victories. The Roughriders have covered in their last five games. They still are mathematically alive for a playoff spot. Ottawa has failed to cover in seven of its last nine games going 3-6 straight-up. The Redblacks have yet to cover in five meetings versus Western Conference foes. They also are 1-5 ATS at home. The Roughriders' offense has picked up behind quarterback Darian Durant and their defense has surrendered less than 20 points per game during their last three games. Roughriders coach Chris Jones has a strong defensive mastermind reputation. His team finally is buying into his intricate defensive system. Ottawa is giving up 27.3 points per game. The Redblacks win with offense, but are down perhaps their best offensive lineman, left tackle SirVincent Rogers. The Roughriders also have had two weeks to prepare being idle last week. Saskatchewan won the first meeting, 30-29, back in Week 5 as a six-point underdog. The timing is ripe for the Roughriders to pull a similar upset.
09-16-16	Montreal v. Hamilton -10	Top	17-20	Loss	-112	32 h 23 m	Show
These two teams met two months ago and Hamilton buried Montreal, 31-7, despite not playing an "A" game, or having quarterback Zach Collaros. Now the timing is even worse for Montreal. The Tiger-Cats scored 11 points versus the Blue Bombers in their last game before Collaros was named the starter. In five games since then, Hamilton is averaging 37 points during its past five games. Collaros has a 112.7 quarterback rating with a 15-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Hamilton is off a flat spot having just lost to Toronto, 33-21, after beating the Argonauts, 49-36, at home two weeks ago. The Tiger-Cats are 11-5 ATS the past 16 times following a non-cover. They've won by double-digits the past two times at home following a road defeat. But not only is this a play-on spot for Hamilton, but it's a heavy fade, too, against Montreal. The Alouettes are in turmoil. They are 3-8 on the season (2-8 ATS in their last 10 games) and have a lot of dissension. Montreal coach and general manager Jim Popp traded quarterback Kevin Glenn before his team's last game. Second-year man Rakeem Cato is now the Alouettes' quarterback and he's clashed with his receivers. This past Tuesday Cato had to be removed from the practice field after shouting and pushing the team's leading receiver, Duron Carter. The two had gotten into a spat the previous week, too. This is what Carter was quoted as saying this past Wednesday, "We lost a quarterback (Glenn). It's not helping our team. ... There's no way we can say we're better without Kevin." This isn't exactly a ringing endorsement for Cato. Carter had been suspended earlier this season. The players aren't happy with Popp. The locker room, according to sources, is a train wreck. Montreal scored one touchdown on offense last week. During the previous five games, the Alouettes have scored fewer than 19 points four times. If you can't score in the CFL you can't cover.
09-10-16	Saskatchewan +10.5 v. Winnipeg	Top	10-17	Win	100	100 h 19 m	Show
Saskatchewan isn't going anywhere at 1-9. The Roughriders' season is essentially finished - except for this game. This is going to be their Super Bowl. These two teams just met this past Sunday in their annual Labour Day Classic. The Roughriders lost in controversial fashion. They outgained the Blue Bombers, but fell 28-25 on a field goal during the final play of the game. Winnipeg probably should not have been in position to win the game because the referees disallowed an interception by Justin Cox with 28 seconds left instead penalizing him for pass interference even though it was reported that Cox had provided textbook coverage on the play. The Blue Bombers should be feeling fat and happy having won five in a row and returning home for the first time since Aug. 12. They are in a prime ambush spot with the Roughriders in short revenge. Winnipeg has played worse at home than on the road. The Blue Bombers are 1-3 SU and ATS at home this season and have failed to cover eight of the past 11 times they've met a foe with a losing record.
09-04-16	Winnipeg v. Saskatchewan +4.5	Top	28-25	Win	100	11 h 56 m	Show
Winnipeg is hot with four straight victories that have coincided since Matt Nichols was installed as its starting quarterback. Saskatchewan is 1-8, 3-6 ATS. But those records can be thrown out in this annual Labour Day Classic. The game is a sell-out in Saskatchewan. It's also the Roughriders' season. If they can't get a win here - in a home game they are going all out to win - then there really is no pulse on the team. I'm expecting the Roughriders to play their best game of the year fortified with returning injured offensive linemen and wide receiver Rob Bagg back. Saskatchewan has won four of the past five times hosting Winnipeg. The Blue Bombers haven't been favored since opening week. Now they're laying more than a field goal in an annual rivalry Labour Day matchup. I'm not buying it. This marks Winnipeg's third consecutive road game, too.
08-28-16	Hamilton +4.5 v. Calgary	Top	24-30	Loss	-110	25 h 5 m	Show
It's a rough to fade Calgary, but the Stampeders have a bit of a cushion in the West Division and could be in letdown mode. Even if they aren't, though, Hamilton always plays the Stampeders tough. In all but two of the last eight meetings, the games have been decided by less than a touchdown. Calgary is 3-0 the past three times meeting the Tiger-Cats. However, the combined margin of victory in those three games is by a total of eight points. Hamilton has covered the past five times when playing in Calgary. The Tiger-Cats have picked up their game with the return of QB Zach Collaros. Hamilton has scored 31 or more points in four of its last five games. The Tiger-Cats are proven road warriors, too, covering 70 percent of their last 20 away contests.
08-26-16	Winnipeg +2.5 v. Montreal	Top	32-18	Win	100	98 h 8 m	Show
Montreal has the second-worst record in the Canadian Football League. The Alouettes were 1-5 in their last six games - with all the losses occurring by double-digits - until they upset Ottawa last Friday as nine-point road 'dogs. The Alouettes are 0-5 ATS following a win and have failed to cover in six of their last seven home games. I don't think they are very good and a fluke victory doesn't change that opinion. It just sets up a letdown scenario for Montreal against the rested and hot Blue Bombers. Sparked by quarterback Matt Nichols, Winnipeg has won three in a row. The Blue Bombers beat Edmonton on the road, Hamilton at home and Toronto on the road by a combined 50 points. All three of those opponents are .500 teams. The Blue Bombers were underdogs in each game. The Blue Bombers were idle last week and are expected to get several key injured starters back, including their top receivers. In the meantime, Nichols has found good chemistry with Clarence Denmark, Kris Adams, Jace Davis and Thomas Mayo. Winnipeg leads the CFL in takeaways and its secondary can get an added boost with the return of Chris Randle and Macho Harris. The Blue Bombers should have plenty of depth now that they are healthier. The timing is right, too, off a bye and catching Montreal in a letdown spot. The Alouettes have been favored only once - and that was against the worst team in the league, Saskatchewan - and they shouldn't be favored here.
08-06-16	Edmonton +4 v. Ottawa	Top	20-23	Win	100	21 h 20 m	Show
The defending Grey Cup champion Eskimos are finding out that repeating isn't going to be easy. They have lost their last two games - both as solid home favorites. It's the first time Edmonton has lost two in a row since 2014. Now the Eskimos go on the road to play Ottawa where they are underdogs for the first this season. Look for the Eskimos to bounce back. They won their lone away game this season and are 8-2 ATS following a straight-up loss. Edmonton opened its season with a 45-37 overtime loss to the Redblacks so there also is a strong revenge factor. There is nothing wrong with Edmonton's offense. Quarterback Mike Reilly leads the CFL in passing yards and touchdown passes per game. Reilly is attacking a banged-up Redblacks secondary down several veteran starters. The Eskimos certainly should put up their share of points and they're due to play much better because the talent is there.
08-03-16	Hamilton -140 v. Winnipeg	Top	11-37	Loss	-140	55 h 54 m	Show
If you think wide receivers are valuable in the NFL, watch a CFL game. That's really all about passing and it's a key factor why host Winnipeg is in major trouble this week with a cluster injury problem at wide receiver. The Blue Bombers are down Darvin Adams, Weston Dressler and Ryan Smith. That's their No. 1, No. 2 and No. 5 leading receivers. They also are down several defensive backs. Road teams have covered an astonishing 19 of 24 games this season. The Tiger-Cats are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 away contests. Winnipeg is 0-3 SU and ATS at home. The Blue Bombers have failed to cover the past four times they've hosted the Tiger-Cats. This also is a big revenge game for Hamilton. The Blue Bombers stunned the Tiger-Cats on the road winning, 28-24, as 9-point 'dogs. Hamilton outgained Winnipeg in that game but was done in by five turnovers. The Tiger-Cats have been pointing to this matchup having been idle since July 23. Hamilton has been a far better road team going 3-0 SU and ATS beating Montreal, Toronto and Edmonton by a combined 52 points. The Tiger-Cats rank No. 1 in total defense while the Blue Bombers are last giving up nearly 100 more yards per game than Hamilton. The Blue Bombers have covered just 28 percent the past 24 times they've met an above .500 opponent.
07-31-16	Toronto +10.5 v. Ottawa	Top	23-20	Win	100	15 h 53 m	Show
The number is inflated because Ottawa starting quarterback Henry Burris is back after missing five games with a finger injury, while Logan Kilgore makes his first start replacing injured No. 1 quarterback Ricky Ray for Toronto. These teams just played each other on July 13. The score was tied 20-20 with 2:49 left when the Redblacks returned a punt 75 yards for a touchdown in a 30-20 final. Burris could be rusty. That's a possibility. But I also believe Kilgore will be ready having had all week to practice with the first unit. Kilgore looked good in preseason and will be coached up by Scott Milanovich, who has a strong reputation for developing quarterbacks. Also in Kilgore's favor is the Argonauts have improved their ground attack ranking in the middle after finishing last in 2015. Toronto's offensive line is coming around, too, allowing only one sack in its last game, a victory against Montreal, which has a top-four defense. The Argonauts should be primed for a big effort not only because it's short revenge, but also rallying around their replacement quarterback.
07-29-16	BC +5 v. Calgary	Top	41-44	Win	100	58 h 49 m	Show
Road teams have been gold this CFL season. B.C. has contributed to that going 2-0 SU and ATS in its two away matchups. The Lions aren't strong at quarterback, but they compensate for that with a league-leading running attack and outstanding defense that ranks No. 1 in fewest yards allowed per game. The Lions' ground attack can take advantage of Calgary's defensive line injuries making it easier for quarterback Jonathon Jennings to pick his spots. The Lions upset Calgary, 20-18, opening week as 2 1/2-point 'dogs. Now they are off a bye and the pointspread is doubled. It wasn't a fluke the Lions won the first meeting as they outgained the Stampeders while running off 17 more plays. Calgary's only two wins have been against Winnipeg, which has the worst record in the league at 1-4. The Lions have outgained each of their first four opponents. The line is inflated because of Calgary's revenge angle and perhaps the oddsmaker not fully buying into the much improved Lions.
07-25-16	Montreal +7 v. Toronto	Top	17-30	Loss	-135	85 h 21 m	Show
Road teams have been gold this CFL season going 13-3-1 and 15-2 against the spread through Thursday. Toronto has been part of this home field problem going 0-2 at their new BMO Field, losing by an average of 16 points to Hamilton and Ottawa. A crowd of less than 10,000 is expected so the Argonauts don't have a strong home field despite their new digs. This has been a road team series, too, with the visitor winning nine of the last 10 times. Montreal has a strong defense, but the CFL's weakest offense. A large part of the Alouettes' problems on offense have been because of injuries, including an eye injury to quarterback Kevin Glenn. But Glenn has been taking first-team reps this week after missing last week's game and is expected to start. That should give the Alouettes a needed boost. The Alouettes do have a strong defense. Toronto averages fewer than 24 points a game and ranks last in yards gained. So this is a lot of points for the Argos to lay.
07-15-16	Hamilton -120 v. Montreal	Top	31-7	Win	100	29 h 31 m	Show
Yes, there's a certain risk in getting behind Hamilton quarterback Jeremiah Masoli. He can be a turnover machine, but he's also passed for 933 yards, completed better than 71 percent of his throws and has five touchdown passes in three games. Masoli is highly mobile, too. Montreal has played decently on defense, but hasn't faced a quarterback who can operate sideline to sideline like Masoli can. Montreal has a number of key injuries with the latest being quarterback Kevin Glenn apparently out due to an inflamed left eye. That leaves the Alouettes' offense in the hands of untested Rakeem Cato. So not only do the Alouettes have to make do with Cato, but they remain without their starting center while breaking in new receivers. Road teams have fared extremely well during the first three weeks of the season entering this Week 4 covering 83 percent. Hamilton should be in circle-the-wagons mode after losing two straight home games. The Tiger-Cats are 1-0 on the road beating Toronto by 22 points as an underdog. That was the 12th time in its last 16 tries that Hamilton has covered on the road. Montreal has failed to cover in its last four home contests.
07-08-16	Saskatchewan +11 v. Edmonton	Top	36-39	Win	100	54 h 2 m	Show
This is just too many points for Edmonton to give up considering the defense and coaching of their opponent. Saskatchewan surrendered just 186 passing yards and 66 rushing yards to Toronto in its lone game this season. However, the Rough Riders lost because of turnovers - including a fumble return brought back for a touchdown - and bad special teams play. Saskatchewan quarterback Darian Durant looked good in the loss completing 31 of 48 throws for 310 yards and a touchdown. Look for Coach Chris Jones to clean that up. You know the Rough Riders are going to be tough under Jones, who knows the Eskimos having coached them to the Grey Cup last season before leaving for Saskatchewan this season along with his coaching staff. Edmonton also lost in its lone game this season. The Eskimos really appeared to be missing Jones as they gave up 45 points to Ottawa. The Eskimos not only are minus Jones, one of the top defensive minds in the CFL, but also are in heavy rebuilt mode at linebacker and in the secondary.
07-01-16	Winnipeg v. Calgary -8.5	Top	22-36	Win	100	78 h 15 m	Show
Calgary is double-digits better than Winnipeg especially when playing at home. The oddsmaker opened the Stampeders a little light because Calgary was upset by BC last Saturday, 20-18. That was the Stampeders' first season-opening loss since 2011 and should prove a wake-up call especially after blowing an 11-point second half lead. The last time Calgary lost two games in a row in a season was early in 2012. That's the longest streak in Canadian pro football history. Calgary is 21-6 ATS following a loss. Winnipeg is a bottom-three team that looked bad in losing at home to Montreal to start the season last week. Drew Willy was sacked five times and didn't look good. The Blue Bombers are averaging just 17.2 points during their last four games. So their poor offensive performance wasn't a surprise.
06-24-16	Montreal v. Winnipeg UNDER 50.5	Top	22-14	Win	100	52 h 24 m	Show
These teams are familiar with each other having just recently played a preseason game in which there were fewer than 50 points scored. Winnipeg upgraded its defense during the preseason particularly in the defensive line and at linebacker. Montreal has a strong defense led by defensive end John Bowman, who led the CFL with 19 sacks last year. The Alouettes have weapons, but quarterback Kevin Glenn is 37 and doesn't have a solid backup. The Alouettes also have a young, untested offensive line that will be missing star tackle Josh Bourke and injured center Luc Brodeur-Jourdain. Those are two key missing pieces. There also are a number of strong trends that point to an under in this matchup. Montreal has gone below the total in 18 of its last 21 games played in June. The Alouettes also are 16-6 to the under in their past 22 away contests. Winnipeg is 6-1-1 to the under in its last eight home games and only has gone above the total just four times during its last 16 overall games.

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