Notre Dame hasn't lost since Week 2. The Irish have gone 13-0 SU, 12-1 ATS. It's rare to find such a public team as Notre Dame being so mispriced and undervalued week after week. I find that once again to be the case in this title game matchup with Ohio State favored by too many points.

Ohio State has looked fantastic in the playoffs since getting upset by Michigan. The Buckeyes have rolled over Tennessee, Oregon and Texas. They've built quite a betting bandwagon by accomplishing that. But I don't see them doing that to Notre Dame.

The two teams had three common opponents - Indiana, Penn State and Purdue. Both went 3-0 SU and ATS against those foes. Ohio State's winning margin was 25 points against those three schools. Notre Dame's winning percentage versus them was 24 points.

I consider the quarterback close to even along with the offensive and defensive lines. Ohio State has the better skill position talent, but Notre Dame has the edge in special teams and coaching.

The turnover margin is heavily in Notre Dame's favor. The Irish are plus 17 in takeaways/giveaways while the Buckeyes are plus 5.

In my view this line is inflated because of how well Ohio State has looked in its last two games - blowouts of Tennessee and Oregon - and how mediocre Texas has looked.

But I'm not convinced Ohio State is better than Texas. Those just happened to be the Buckeyes' two most impressive victories of the season.

I like Longhorns QB Quinn Ewers better than Buckeyes QB Will Howard, who doesn't bring fear when it comes to downfield passing. The Longhorns also have arguably the best cornerback in the country, Jahdae Barron.

I rated Texas as having a tougher schedule. The only team the Longhorns have lost to is Georgia. Ohio State lost to Michigan. Maybe the Buckeyes beat the Wolverines eight of 10 times, but the fact is Texas crushed the Wolverines, 31-12, on the road.

Note, too, the game venue - Arlington, Texas. It's not Austin, but home field has to go to Texas.

No one is calling Buffalo a great team. But the Bulls have huge edges in this matchup making this a strong play.

Liberty isn't very good either. The Flames barely beat New Mexico State. They have one of the worst ATS marks in the country at 3-8.

Making things far worse for the Flames, though, are their many opt-outs. They will be down their quarterback Kaidon Salter and star running back, Quinton Cooley, who rushed for 1,234 yards and 13 touchdowns.

That's not all, though. The Flames also lost nearly their entire offensive line and several defensive linemen, too.

Buffalo enters the matchup with momentum and motivation riding a four-game winning streak.

The Bulls are well coached and come from the superior conference as I would take the MAC above Conference USA.

I feel confident laying this many points with Texas State. The talent gap is that large between these two teams, especially since North Texas won't have quarterback Chandler Morris and wide receiver DT Sheffield. Those are the two keys to the Mean Green's offense.

Heck, North Texas needed a close win against 3-9 Temple to even make this bowl game.

It's not like North Texas has done well when playing in a bowl having lost six straight bowl games.

Texas State has its star quarterback, Jordan McCloud, and will do plenty of damage against a North Texas defense that could be the worst of all the bowl teams. The Mean Green rank 121st in scoring defense and 126th in total defense. Their secondary has allowed 22 touchdown throws and their run defense permits an average of 195.5 yards a game on the ground.

On top of that, Texas State coach GJ Kinne has been known to run up scores.

I want the Big Ten team with motivation and a strong defense against a mediocre ACC team in what was a down season in the ACC.

So I'm landing on Nebraska for this Pinstripe Bowl matchup. The oddsmaker agrees, making the Cornhuskers a solid favorite.

The Cornhuskers haven't been to a bowl game since 2016. This game is being played at Yankee Stadium. Nebraska is excited and will have strong fan support.

Nebraska went 6-6, including victories against Colorado and Wisconsin. The Cornhuskers, though, lost five games by one score. One of those narrow losses was by four points to Ohio State. I consider the Big Ten to be vastly better than the ACC this season.

Nebraska freshman QB Dylan Raiola showed promise this season. The Cornhuskers ranked 17th in scoring defense and 17th in fewest yards. They were 11th in run defense.

Boston College, by contrast, ranked 90th in yards gained and were 110th in pass defense.

San Jose State star wide receiver Nick Nash, who led the nation in receptions, receiving yards and touchdowns, has opted out of this Hawaii Bowl.

I still like the Spartans enough to lay points with them. Why? Because South Florida may be the worst of all the bowl teams.

The 6-6 Bulls didn't beat a quality team all season. Their most impressive performance may have been against Alabama - in a 42-16 loss. The Bulls are off a 35-28 loss to 4-8 Rice. The Bulls were outscored by 27 points when they met bowl teams this season.

San Jose State has the more talented team and I give the Spartans' coaching staff an edge, too. The Spartans also have experience playing in Hawaii being a member of the Mountain West Conference. The Spartans played at Hawaii last season.

The Spartans don't need Nash to take advantage of South Florida's 128th-ranked pass defense. The Bulls' lost players in the transfer portal, including starting safety Tawfig Byard.

Coastal Carolina actually is the home team here. The game is being played at Brooks Stadium in Conway, S.C. That's where the Chanticleers play their home games.

Yet there has been a huge line movement on the University of Texas San Antonio to where the Roadrunners are around two-touchdown favorites.

Coastal Carolina being without its two quarterbacks, Ethan Vasko and Noah Kim, is what is driving the UTSA money.

But you know what? I'm not especially fond of either Coastal Carolina quarterback. Neither is very accurate. Kim only threw 56 passes. Vasko had a 14-to-8 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The Chanticleers' strength is their ground attack, which ranks 45th.

Coastal Carolina's Tim Beck is a good coach and UTSA has a horrible defense. The Roadrunners rank 108th in scoring defense giving up 31.3 points a game. They ranked 126rd in pass defense. Opposing quarterbacks threw for 26 TD passes against the Roadrunners. Only 10 teams surrendered more TD's through the air.

I have confidence in Beck coaching up Tad Hudson to get the start at quarterback. Hudson was a four-star recruit two seasons ago. North Carolina signed him, but Hudson transferred to Coastal Carolina this spring. Given home field, a good ground attack and being an intriguing prospect facing a bad defense, I believe Hudson will do well.  

UTSA isn't exactly some powerhouse. The Roadrunners went 6-6 playing in the weak American Athletic Conference. They were outgained both on a total game basis and yard-per-yard basis.

The Roadrunners shouldn't be this high of a road favorite plain and simple. So I'm going against the line move and backing Coastal Carolina.

Warm-weather SMU catches a bit of a weather break in that there won't be snow. But the Mustangs are going to have to deal with temperatures in the teens and a sold-out Beaver Stadium.

I don't see SMU staying within single-digits of Penn State.

The Nittany Lions have a better roster than SMU and their Big Ten Conference was far superior to the Atlantic Coast Conference. It was an extremely down year in the ACC.

The Mustangs didn't beat any team of note. If you remove the lower-tier ACC teams and non-conference foes they played, the Mustangs gave up 30 points a game. Penn State has an excellent QB, Drew Allard, and a deep crop of skill position talent.

No, the Nittany Lions aren't in the same class of Ohio State and Oregon. But they are at that next level, which is a tier above SMU.

The Mustangs have some firepower. However, the defensive gap between these two teams is wide. Throw in that Penn State is playing at home in weather they are used to and SMU isn't and you have a double-digit Nittany Lions victory.

I'm going to ride a hot Ohio team here. The Bobcats have won and covered each of their last six games with all six matchups being blowout victories.

The Bobcats have also won their last four bowl games. They destroyed Miami of Ohio, 38-3, in the Mid-American Conference title game. Miami of Ohio has a better defense than Jacksonville State.

Ohio QB Parker Navarro accounted for four touchdowns against Miami of Ohio. But the biggest factor why I the Bobcats is because of the gap in defenses particularly the run defenses.

The Bobcats give up fewer than 18 points a game. They rank eighth in fewest yards and are fifth in rush defense. Jacksonville State can't pass. The Gamecocks are heavily run-oriented.

Ohio is the 13th-best rushing team in the nation. Jacksonville State is 95th in run defense.

Some of the luster of Jacksonville State's 52-12 win against Western Kentucky in the Conference USA title game is gone after Western Kentucky lost, 27-17, to James Madison on Wednesday in the Boca Raton Bowl.

Navy hasn't been the same team since getting whacked by Notre Dame, 51-14, in late October. The Midshipmen have gone 2-2 since then. They got blanked by Tulane, 35-0, in their one step-up game during that span.

Now Navy is in another step-up spot - and the matchup does not work in the Midshipmen's favor.

Army is the No. 1 rushing offense in the country. Black Knights' QB Bryson Daily has rushed for 1,480 yards and scored 29 touchdowns, tying him with Ashton Jeanty for the most TD's in the nation. Navy has a small defensive interior. The Midshipmen can be run on. They rank 85th in run defense. Notre Dame and Tulane combined to rush for 485 yards against Navy,.  

QB Blake Horvath missed Navy's last game, but is expected to play here. Whether Horvath, a dual-threat, is 100 percent remains to be seen. Both Navy's offense and defense have tailed off.

Army surrenders only 15 points a game, ranks 10th in fewest yards and 11th in defensive rushing yards. Army also has 19 takeaways, which ranks in the top 10.

I rate Army above Navy on both sides of the ball. The Black Knights have had only five turnovers, too, which is the fewest in the country.

So I don't see a path for Navy to stay within a touchdown of Army. I see the Black Knights building a comfortable lead, wearing down Navy and the run-oriented Midshipmen lacking a  backdoor capability.

I've been following and covering UNLV football for 40 years and I haven't seen a better coaching job than what Barry Odom has done with the Rebels this season. Huge kudos to him.

However, I don't see the Rebels staying within a field goal of Boise State. They couldn't do it when they hosted the Broncos losing, 29- 24. Boise State didn't play that well either and Ashton Jeanty was somewhat held in check.

Now the Broncos are home with motivation this being the Mountain West Conference Championship Game. Boise State buried the Rebels, 44- 20, in last year's Mountain West title game, which was played in Las Vegas.

The only team to beat Boise State this season is top-ranked Oregon, which defeated the Broncos by three points in Oregon. Boise State is unbeaten at home winning by an average margin of 25 points.

UNLV relies on a strong ground attack and opportunistic defense. Boise State, though, ranks 17th in run defense and has committed only eight turnovers, seventh-fewest in the nation.

I trust Tulane with the American Athletic Conference championship game at stake. The Green Wave are making their third consecutive AAC title game appearance. They had won 17 straight ACC games until getting upset by Memphis last week at home. The Green Wave may have been looking ahead to this title game in that loss to Memphis knowing they already had their championship game appearance punched.

Tulane was 9-2 ATS going into that Memphis game. The Green Wave have covered five of their six road games. They have one of the best running backs in the country, Makhi Hughes, and the 15th-ranked scoring defense. Their coach, Jon Sumrall, has experience stopping run-option offenses such as Army's.

Army's offense is regressing, averaging only 19.2 points in its last four games. I don't trust the Black Knights either in this step-up spot. They were destroyed by Notre Dame, 49-14, two weeks ago. That was the only time they were taking more than a field goal. Their schedule has been extremely weak.

Hawaii is 4-7 and was destroyed by Utah State, 55-10, in its last game. This is a nothing game for the Rainbow Warriors.

New Mexico has bowl aspirations. A win here makes the Lobos bowl eligible. New Mexico has come on winning five of its last seven games.

Hawaii quarterback John-Keawe Sagapolutele is dealing with a knee injury. So he might not play. His replacement is freshman Micah Alejado.

The Rainbow Warriors have a below average run defense and only six takeaways. They have to deal with New Mexico's excellent dual threat quarterback, Devon Dampier. He's rushed for 1,065 yards and 16 touchdowns while passing for another 12 touchdowns.

The Lobos buried the Rainbow Warriors, 42-21, last year.

This is a real old-fashioned rivalry game. The point spread has never been this high since 1978. The road team has covered four of the past five times in the series.

Nevada will be sky high for this game. The key, of course, is can the Wolf Pack stay within this number?

UNLV is ranked 21st. Nevada has played two top-12 teams in SMU and Boise State. The Wolf Pack lost by five points to SMU and fell by seven points to Boise State on the road two weeks ago.

The Rebels have a strong ground attack ranking eighth in the country. So look for the Wolf Pack to load the box against UNLV since the Rebels rank 117th in passing. Nevada's pass defense ranks 42nd. The Wolf Pack also are one of the best red zone teams in the nation converting on 28-of-36 chances for 77.8 percent.

The Wolf Pack hung with SMU and Boise State. They can hang with their most hated rival.

I'll gladly accept this many points in a long-standing rivalry, coin flip matchup that USC-UCLA is. 

UCLA has covered six of its last eight games. The Trojans have already lost four times as favorites falling to Michigan, Minnesota, Maryland Washington. 

The season has been disappointing for both teams. The Bruins, though, have the confidence of having not just home field advantage but having rolled past USC, 38-20, last year. UCLA quarterback Ethan Garbers had one of his finest games in that victory throwing three TD passes. 

The strength of UCLA, however, is its run defense, which ranks eighth in the country. The Trojans rely on 1,000-yard rusher Woody Marks. Look for the Bruins to bottle up Marks like they did against Iowa's star running back Kaleb Johnson, who they held to 49 yards on 18 carries, two weeks ago. 

Not helping matters for USC is a flu outbreak that has hit its team. 

BYU had been living dangerously. They were lucky to have snuck past Utah in a controversial, 22-21, win two weeks ago. The Cougars had their unbeaten bubble finally pricked by underdog Kansas in a home loss last week. 

That loss to the 4-6 Jayhawks confirmed what many believe, including myself, that the Cougars were overrated. 

Now BYU faces one of the most improved teams in the country, 21st-ranked Arizona State in Tempe, Ariz. 

Arizona State is tied for the third-best point spread record in the country at 8-2. Sun Devils head man Kenny Dillingham is a coach of the year candidate. 

It often happens that when an unbeaten team loses their first game midseason-to-late in the year, it loses the next game. It happened to Iowa State, Liberty, Navy and Pittsburgh, all of whom opened 5-0 or better. 

I see it happening to BYU here. 

BYU and Arizona State have played six common opponents. BYU went 3-3 ATS against those foes, while Arizona State covered all six. 

The Sun Devils have the superior run defense and a better rushing offense. Their passing attack is strong, too, with quarterback Sam Leavitt throwing to his favorite target, Jordyn Tyson. 

Both teams own losing records. But there's a difference. Houston is 3-1 in its last four games and has pulled upsets in its last two games beating Kansas State and Utah. Arizona has lost and failed to cover its past five games.

The Cougars have momentum and confidence. Arizona doesn't. Houston also has found the right quarterback.

Zeon Chriss has sparked the Cougars since replacing Donovan Smith halfway through a 30-19 victory against TCU four games ago. Chriss sets up the pass because he's such an effective runner. He's made the Cougars' offense much better than their season statistics look like.

Arizona surrenders nearly 170 yards on the ground, fourth-worst in the Big 12. The Wildcats have lost three key defenders due to injuries.

The Wildcats have a superstar wide receiver, Tetairoa McMillan, but their quarterback play and coaching have been a disappointment. Since the second week of the season, the Wildcats are averaging only 17.2 points a game. Houston surrenders the 23rd-fewest yards per game in the nation.

This is a Friday night game, but attendance at Arizona could be down for this football game because its basketball team has a marquee game against Wisconsin that starts about 75 minutes before kickoff.

Bowling Green defeated Western Michigan on the road by 24 points last season. I expect the Falcons to win by double-digits hosting Western Michigan this season. 

Both teams have strong offensive capabilities. I trust Bowling Green's defense far more than the Broncos' defense, though.

The Falcons have scored 27 or more points in six of their nine games. They have one of the MAC's most talented running backs in Terion Stewart.

Western Michigan gives up an average of 34.7 points a game and ranks 124th in the metric of defensive success rate allowed. 

Sure there figures to be plenty of points scored here. I just don't see Texas Tech and its quarterback, Behren Morton, keeping up with Colorado and its Heisman Trophy candidate quarterback, Shedeur Sanders.

And Sanders isn't even the best player on the Buffaloes. That honor goes to two-way superstar Travis Hunter, who dominates at wide receiver and in the secondary.

Colorado's defense has an athletic secondary led by Hunter and a good pass rush. Texas Tech doesn't offer that. The Red Raiders rank second-to-last in the nation in pass defense and are 130th in total defense. They are last in the Big 12, too, with only 11 sacks. Sanders should feast, throwing to Hunter and LaJohntay Wester among his deep receiving corps.  

The Buffaloes were idle last week. Not so with Texas Tech. The Red Raiders went into Ames, Iowa and upset Iowa State, 23-22, as 13 1/2-point road underdogs. That made the 6-3 Red Raiders bowl eligible and could mean a letdown for this game.

Morton didn't have a good game against Iowa State completing a season-low 52.5 percent of his passes while being intercepted twice. The Red Raiders have a top running back, Tahj Brooks. But he won't be enough to elevate Texas Tech past ascending Colorado, which is 5-1 in its last six games.

After jumping out to a 6-0 start, Navy has regressed. The Midshipmen are looking like frauds now after losing to Notre Dame, 51-14, and to Rice, 24-10, last week. Some of Navy's problems can be related to quarterback Blake Horvath trying to play through a hand/thumb injury. He's looked terrible during this time span.

Navy isn't taking opponents by surprise anymore either as foes have plenty of film on Navy's unique option style attack.

South Florida, by contrast, has picked up its game. The Bulls beat UAB and Florida Atlantic by double-digits in their last two games. They have a much better run defense than pass defense and can key on the run knowing Horvath isn't 100 percent.

Hawaii can prove tough at home given its built-in travel advantage.
 
But when it comes to playing on the mainland, the Rainbow Warriors clearly are fade material. Hawaii is 1-14 in its last 15 road games, including 0-3 SU and ATS this season. Only once in their past eight away games have the Rainbow Warriors managed to cover the spread.

I don't see them doing it here against Fresno State. 

The teams last met two seasons ago in Fresno. The Bulldogs won, 55-13. Things have changed since then with Jeff Tedford no longer  Fresno State's coach. He resigned before this season due to health concerns. Tom Skipper is the interim coach and the Bulldogs have picked up their pace.

Fresno State has defeated San Jose State and Nevada during the past two weeks to move its record to 5-3. Mikey Keene was 30-of-41 passing while throwing for three touchdowns and 275 yards against San Jose State last week, his best game of the season. Keene has the receiving depth to exploit Hawaii's 73rd-ranked pass defense.

I don't expect Hawaii quarterback Brayden Schager to match Keene and Fresno State's offense. The Rainbow Warriors average only 21.5 points, which ranks them 110th. They are 123rd in rushing and 103rd in yards per game. 

The Bulldogs force an average of two turnovers a game and rank among the top-10 in interceptions. Hawaii, by contrast, has only four takeaways. 

Mississippi is getting too much respect here. The Rebels had an easy first four games, which has skewed their season-long numbers. They are 1-3 ATS during their past four games, which include upset losses to LSU and Kentucky and unimpressive non-cover against a down-in-the-dumps Oklahoma, 26-14, as a 19-point home favorite last week.

The Rebels are averaging just 21.5 points in their last four games.

Oh, yeah, the Rebels haven't won in Fayetteville in 16 years.

Only six teams have produced more yards per game than Arkansas. The Razorbacks have outgained foes by more than 133 yards per game as QB Taylen Green gets better each week.

Anytime the better team is taking points, I'm interested in the underdog. That's the case here.

Hawaii has a very weak offense. The Rainbow Warriors rank 117th in scoring at 19.7 points and are 105th in total yards. Their average per game shrinks to just 13.4 points if you count just the five FBS opponents they have played.

Hawaii is favored because of home field and Nevada likely not having injured starting QB Brendon Lewis. However, the Wolf Pack could benefit from using backup QB A.J. Bianco, who is a better passer than Lewis. Hawaii only has three takeaways.

One of the best below-the-radar coaching jobs being turned in this season is by UL-Monroe's first-year head coach Bryant Vincent. This isn't the Warhawks of 2023, who finished last year losing their final 10 games.

Vincent has Monroe off to a 5-1 start both straight-up and against the spread. This includes a 21-19 victory against James Madison as a 19-point 'dog. The Warhawks' only loss was 51-3 to fifth-ranked Texas. That loss has skewed the Warhawks' overall statistics.

South Alabama is the opposite. The 3-4 Jaguars haven't beaten a quality team. Their statistics are artificially high because of an 87-10 victory against Northwestern State, an 0-8 team that plays in the FCS Southland Conference.

The lone time South Alabama stepped up this season was when it played LSU. The Jaguars lost, 42-10, and gave up 677 yards to the Tigers.

Monroe has surrendered more than 300 yards to just one other team besides Texas. The Warhawks have a stout defense, one of the Sun Belt Conference's top running backs in Ahmad Hardy and have an improving quarterback, redshirt freshman Aidan Armenta.

Temple was an auto-fade early in the season. But the Owls have turned things around covering four of their last five games.

The key to the Owls' turnaround is the return to health of Evan Simon. He had a 122.3 passer rating in leading the Owls to a 20-10 win against Tulsa last week. Simons has completed 65 percent of his passes and has a 10-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

Mainly my involvement in this matchup is to fade East Carolina. The Pirates have lost four of their past five games. They can't stop the run, nor run the ball effectively. East Carolina ranks 96th in total yards and 97th in scoring defense.

Iowa still has its great defense. Only this season the Hawkeyes can actually produce points. 

The Hawkeyes have scored 31 or more points in four of their six games. They just put up 40 points against Washington last Saturday. 

Michigan State can't match the Hawkeyes in the trenches. The Spartans are down after being buried by Oregon and Ohio State during their past two games.

The Spartans are turnover-prone committing 14. Their quarterback, Aiden Chiles, has been intercepted nine times. 

The Hawkeyes have a top-10 running back in Kaleb Johnson. Iowa also rates a strong special teams edge. 

Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz has a strong history when favored by 6 1/2 points or fewer going 37-23 ATS. His Hawkeyes also have covered 78 percent the past 23 times as a road favorite against fellow Big Ten teams. 

Purdue is one of the three worst teams in the Big Ten Conference in a down year for the Big Ten.

But the Boilermakers are better after making a quarterback switch to redshirt freshman Ryan Browne and they draw Oregon at home while the Ducks are dealing with a huge situational disadvantage.

So getting four touchdowns with the Boilermakers is enough for me to get involved.

The Ducks moved to No. 2 in the country in The Associated Press Top 25 rankings after upsetting Ohio State at home, 32-31, at home. Now, six days later, the Ducks are back in action after traveling three time zones losing two days of practice time because of the Friday start. It's going to be difficult for the Ducks to get highly motivated for this matchup after their thrilling, emotional win against the Buckeyes.

This is by far Oregon's longest road trip of the season. The Ducks' other road games were flying to Los Angeles to play UCLA and a less-than-an-hour drive to face in-state rival Oregon State.

Big Ten teams traveling two or more time zones have covered just 31 percent of the time in 13 instances this season.

Yes, Oregon holds a monster talent edge. Browne, though, is a huge upgrade on a disappointing Hudson Card. Browne accounted for 415 total yards in a 50-49 loss to Illinois last week. Purdue averaged 9.2 yards per play against a respectable Illinois defense.

Oregon State is 4-1. Nevada is 2-4. But don't be fooled by that. These teams are remarkably even. Nevada is home and getting points so I'm on the Wolf Pack.

Nevada is 4-2 ATS and has played a tougher schedule than the Beavers. The Wolf Pack ranks 36th rushing and is above average in stopping the run. Oregon State is run-oriented.

It's not a great situational spot for the Beavers as they are off a 39-31 overtime victory against Colorado State. Oregon State allowed the Rams to pick up 6.4 yards a play.

You have to go back to 2008 to find the last time Mississippi beat LSU at Tiger Stadium. I don't see that streak ending here.

LSU is off a bye and has a very strong passing attack. LSU coach Brian Kelly is 10-2 the past dozen times following a bye.

Tigers QB Garrett Nussmeier ranks fifth in the country in passing yards. He's completed 69.8 percent of his throws while throwing 15 TD's in five games.

Mississippi's defensive strength is run defense. The Rebels are just average against the pass. They haven't faced a foe nearly as strong as LSU.

The good news is we have a Big Ten game today. The bad news is it's between two mediocre teams.

I don't think 3-2 Maryland is double-digits better than 2-3 Northwestern, so I'm on the underdog.  

I also don't think Michigan State is very good and Maryland lost at home to the Spartans. 

Northwestern has a respectable defense ranking 44th in scoring defense giving up fewer than 21 points a game and is 18th in run defense. The Wildcats have weak offensive numbers, but that is starting to change with improvement from QB Jack Lausch. 

The Terrapins allow more points per game than Northwestern and rank 121st in pass defense. 

This isn't the good Troy teams of past years. The Trojans lost a lot of quality players from last season. They are 1-4 with their lone win coming against Florida A&M.

The Trojans average just 21.4 points a game. They don't have the firepower, nor defense, to keep up with high-scoring Texas State. Troy only has one defensive takeaway, too, so turnovers shouldn't be a problem for Texas State.

The Bobcats have Jordan McCloud, who I consider to be the best QB in the Sun Belt Conference. They also have a tremendous offensive-minded coach in GJ Kinne.

No way, though, does Texas State take the Trojans lightly. Not after the Bobcats blew a 22-0 lead in a 40-39 loss to Sam Houston State last week. I see the far more talented Bobcats taking out their frustrations on the hapless Trojans.

This game has been bet up. I agree with the line movement. I see New Mexico beating New Mexico State by double-digits in the Rio Grande Rivalry.

New Mexico State is 1-3. New Mexico is 0-4. However, the Lobos have played a far tough schedule going against Montana State, Arizona, Auburn and Fresno State.

The Lobos are showing improvement. The Aggies have shown regression in losing their last three games.

New Mexico produced 485 yards against Fresno State last week. But the Lobos were done in by a negative 3 turnover margin.

New Mexico State can't stop the run, nor pass the ball. The Aggies have had fewer than 75 passing yards in three of their four games. They were gashed on the ground by Sam Houston last week giving up 280 yards rushing. The Aggies have permitted more than 200 yards rushing in each of their last three games. New Mexico has the running backs to take advantage.

Bowling Green distinguished itself well in one-score road losses to Texas A&M and Penn State during its last two games. Now the Falcons get to celebrate homecoming weekend hosting Old Dominion.

It's a step down for Bowling Green. It also leads to a letdown and perhaps concentration lapses for the Falcons.

Old Dominion is a feisty road underdog. The Monarchs are 9-3 ATS (75%) in that role the past two plus seasons under steady coach Ricky Rahne. One of these road covers was this season against South Carolina. The Monarchs lost by four points as 20 1/2-point 'dogs. South Carolina went on to whip Kentucky by 25 points. Kentucky lost to second-ranked Georgia by one point.

The Monarchs should be able to have success on the ground against Bowling Green, which also will keep the clock moving.

OK, so Michigan isn't going to win the national championship. The Wolverines are down from last year, but not down enough where they can't beat USC at home.

USC isn't top-ranked Texas.

I'm not sold on the Trojans just because they beat defensively-challenged LSU. USC happens to be 1-7 ATS the past eight times when laying points on the road against a ranked opponent.

The Wolverines can run the ball with Donovan Edwards and Kalel Mullings, two of the better running backs in the Big Ten. Michigan coach Sherrone Moore also made the right decision to make a quarterback change to Alex Orji, who can both run and pass.

USC ranked 117th in run defense last year and gave up an average of 4.5 yards rushing to LSU.

I'm going to accept three touchdowns with Arkansas State catching Iowa State in somewhat of a sandwich spot.

The Cyclones were idle last week. But two weeks ago they nipped heated in-state rival Iowa, 20-19. That win already makes the Cyclones successful for the year. Iowa State opens Big 12 Conference play next week at Houston.

So the Cyclones can't be faulted if they don't have a lot of motivation, facing this non-league opponent from the Sun Belt Conference. 

It's a major drop in class for Iowa State. But Arkansas State does have pluses. Red Wolves QB Jaylen Raynor is a dual threat. Arkansas State will have the best wide receiver on the field in Corey Rucker. Iowa State is inexperienced at linebacker and ranks 111th in run defense. 

The Cyclones likely will run the ball a lot. Arkansas State also will try to grind out yards. A heavy dose of running plays keeps the clock moving, which is good when taking a three-touchdown underdog. 

Discount Kent State and Mid-American Conference teams are 14-6 (70 percent) ATS this season. The MAC is being overlooked and Toledo is one of the better teams in the conference. 

Yet the marketplace continues to disrespect the MAC. This matchup is an example with Mississippi State bet up into being a double-digit favorite. 
I don't agree with that given the Bulldogs' inability to stop the run. Mississippi State ranks 121st in run defense. The Bulldogs are allowing up more than six yards a carry. 

Mississippi State just lost to rebuilding Arizona State, 30-23, because the Bulldogs allowed Cam Skattebo to dominate them on the ground running for 262 yards. 

The Rockets haven't played a good team yet in beating Duquesne and UMass. But they are averaging 43.5 points and are anxious to prove themselves worthy against an SEC foe. 

UCLA is down this season and Indiana is a rising team under new coach Curt Cignetti, who made James Madison a power before coming to Indiana. The Hoosiers have an underrated QB in Kurtis Rourke, who played in the MAC last year and thus wasn't that publicized.

UCLA barely got past a bad Hawaii team, 16-13, in their opener. Indiana is a big step up for the Bruins and I don't see them making that step up against an underrated Hoosiers squad that is much better than perceived.

Forget Nevada losing 16 of 20 games the past two seasons. The Wolf Pack are  much better coached under Jeff Choate. They've proven themselves beating Troy on the road as a 7 1/2-point underdog and losing by only five points to SMU as a 27-point 'dog.

Minnesota is not the right team to lay a big number, especially against a physical opponent such as Nevada.

Max Brosmer is a better passer than previous P.J. Fleck quarterbacks at Minnesota, but the Gophers still are way too top-heavy running the ball. Minnesota is averaging 35.5 rushing attempts per game. The Gophers rank 104th in rushing yards per game. They are averaging a meager 2.7 yards per carry. Nevada has a better than average rush defense giving up 3.7 yards per carry.

These are two run-oriented, conservative teams. That's a good mix when taking this big of an underdog.

Northern Illinois upset Notre Dame as a four-touchdown underdog last Saturday and Penn State escaped Bowling Green winning by only seven points as 34-point favorites.

Now it's Central Michigan's turn to stay close to Illinois - if not pull the outright upset. 

When last seen, the Illini had just upset ranked Kansas, 23-17, as 5-point home underdogs this past Saturday. Illinois fans stormed the field following the victory. 

Not only is Illinois in a major letdown situation, but also a look-ahead spot as it opens Big Ten play the following week against much-improved Nebraska in a nationally televised Friday night game. 

I've never been able to trust Illinois coach Bret Bielema and I don't trust him to have his Illini fully motivated for this matchup.
It's easy to see why Illinois could be overconfident as Central Michigan is coming off a 52-16 loss to Florida International last week. The Chippewas were favored in that game, too. 

So, what happened? The score is highly misleading. Central Michigan actually outgained FIU by 60 yards. The Chippewas were done in by a 6-0 turnover disadvantage. 

The Chippewas won 10 games in 2021, including defeating Washington State in a bowl game. They've had some tough luck the past two seasons going 9-15 in one-score games. 

I don't see Illinois being this high of a favorite, especially given the circumstances. 

Would I really go with a Sun Belt Conference team against a former Pac-12 now Big 12 team in a pick-type game?

Darn right when the matchup is Texas State hosting Arizona State and it's on Thursday. Texas State is a rising program under offensive guru G.J. Kinne. The Bobcats beat Rice in a bowl game last season in Kinne's first year as head coach.

The Bobcats feature a big-time quarterback, Jordan McCloud. He was the Sun Belt Conference Player of the Year with James Madison last year and the second overall pick in my Sun Belt Conference fantasy football draft gobbled up by me. The 2-0 Bobcats just destroyed USTA, 49-10.

This may be Texas State's biggest game in school history hosting a Power-Four team in a stand-alone college game that will be nationally-televised by ESPN.

Second-year Arizona State coach Kenny Dillingham has a sharp offensive mind, too, but he's still cleaning the manure left by former Sun Devils coach Herm Edwards. ASU was 3-9 last season, its second consecutive three-win season.

Dillingham has the Sun Devils off to a 2-0 start with victories against Wyoming and Mississippi State. The Sun Devils were touchdown favorites against those foes. Dillingham says Texas State is the best team his Sun Devils have faced so far. He's right.

It's a brutal travel spot for the Sun Devils after playing this past Saturday at home. They barely were able to get two practices in. ASU also opens Big 12 action next week on the road against Texas Tech.

ASU quarterback Sam Leavitt isn't close to being as good as McCloud. Instead, the Sun Devils rely on running back Cam Skattebo. He was tremendous last week rushing for 262 yards against Mississippi State. Skattebo did that on 33 carries. Dillingham can't burn out his star runner before conference play even begins. So Skattebo's role could be diminished.

It's hard to believe Jacksonville State is as bad as it looked in its opener, a 55-27 loss to Coastal Carolina. Maybe expectations were too high for the Gamecocks following a nine-win season in their first year as a member of Conference USA last season. 

Yet I see the Gamecocks gaining a measure of some self-respect back by playing better this week. They have a respected coach in Rich Rodriguez, a defense that is far better than it played against Coastal Carolina and extra prep time having played last Thursday. 

This isn't a fade on Louisville. The Cardinals are a strong ACC team. They opened with a 62-0 victory against Austin Peay. 

I just feel this line is inflated based on Week 1 results and that Jacksonville State is a strong enough program to be able to stay within four touchdowns of Louisville. 

Yes, North Texas has a bad defense although it won't be as bad as last season. But the Mean Green also averaged nearly 500 yards of offense, placing first in the American Athletic Conference in total offense.

South Alabama doesn't have a good defense either. QB Chandler Morris, a transfer from TCU, should keep North Texas' attack humming. Morris has accounted for 22 touchdowns, 2,433 yards passing and 400 yards rushing in his last 20 games when he played for Oklahoma and then TCU.

South Alabama has a first-year head coach, Major Applewhite, and is breaking in a new quarterback and lead running back. The Jaguars also don't have their leading wide receiver from last season.  

So I'll take this many points with North Texas not knowing for sure if South Alabama can keep up with the Mean Green in the scoring column.

I'm not a huge fan of Florida coach Billy Napier. But I'm even less of a fan of Miami coach Mario Cristobal, who has covered just 32 percent of his games during his two years at Miami.

The Hurricanes under Cristobal have had great talent. That's the case again this season - at least on paper. They always underachieve.

This is Napier's strongest team at Florida. Graham Mertz is back for his sixth season of college football. He's improved every year. Leading rusher Montrell Johnson Jr. is healthy again and will play after he was questionable following the spring. The Gators are especially strong in their defensive front seven.

The Gators have won 32 straight times since 1990 when opening the season at home. Look for that streak to continue.

Usually my first look is backing a Big Ten Conference team against a mediocre American Athletic Conference opponent, which is what we have here. However, Michigan State is not a good Big Ten team. The Spartans were 4-8 last season, 2-7 in the Big Ten.

Florida Atlantic is rebuilding in Tom Herman's second season. The Owls, though, have a respectable defense ranking 59th in scoring defense and 64th in run defense last season. The Owls should be improved this season returning eight defensive starters.

The key takeaway is that Michigan State isn't very good offensively. In fact, Michigan State's offense is downright horrible. The Spartans ranked 121st in offensive success rate, 128th in total yards and 131st in scoring averaging a meager 15.9 points a game in 2023. Sophomore QB Aiden Chiles is set to make his first college start for the Spartans.

Florida Atlantic's offense wasn't that much better statistically than Michigan State's. But the Owls upgraded their roster through the transfer portal bringing in QB Cam Fancher from Marshall, where he accounted for 15 TD's last season.

No Grayson McCall at quarterback for Coastal Carolina. No backing the Chanticleers. That along with Jacksonville State's superior defense, home field and having revenge makes me comfortable backing the Gamecocks.

A rare national TV home game and revenge for last year's loss to Coastal Carolina should have Jacksonville State sky high for this matchup. The Chanticleers defeated Jacksonville State, 30-16, at home last season but the score was misleading. The Gamecocks had more first downs and only had six fewer yards. The Gamecocks won't have to deal with star passer McCall, who transferred to NC State.

There's a huge drop from McCall to Coastal Carolina's new quarterbacks, Noah Kim and Ethan Vasko. Jacksonville State went 9-4 in its first year in the FBS. Rich Rodriquez's defense was the best in Conference USA last season giving up 21.2 points and recording 39 sacks.

Jacksonville State is a team on the rise in Rodriguez's third season. Coastal Carolina has been on the decline the past two years.

Rodriguez's teams are known for running. Coastal Carolina's is weak against the run and must replace its three top tacklers from last season.

I wasn't planning on getting involved in this Week 0 matchup between SMU and Nevada. It's a huge mismatch in SMU's favor. 

But now that the line has been bet up to around four touchdowns, I'm going to get involved with the underdog Wolf Pack. 

Nevada's Mackay Stadium is a tough place for opponents. The Wolf Pack certainly won't lack effort being the first game under new coach Jeff Choate following consecutive 2-10 seasons under Ken Wilson. Reports have been positive Nevada is improved, especially in the offensive line. SMU doesn't have film, or anything to really go by since this is a new Wolf Pack regime. That gives Nevada an element of surprise. 

SMU QB Preston Stone could be rusty, too, having missed spring camp recovering from a broken leg. 

It's time. Michigan has the superior defense, ground attack and big-game experience having been in three straight college football playoffs to beat Washington by more than a field goal. 

Washington hasn't faced a defense this good. The Wolverines give up the fewest points per game in the nation. They rank No. 2 in fewest yards allowed, too, and in pass defense.

Those who like Washington in this title game say Michigan hasn't faced a quarterback the caliber of Michael Penix Jr. The Wolverines, though, beat their share of talented quarterbacks - Jalen Milroe, Taulia Tagovailoa, Kyle McCord and Drew Allar. Michigan also is familiar with Penix having gone against him when he played for Indiana before transferring to Washington. 

The Huskies have good wide receivers. But Michigan has seen better having knocked off Ohio State, who had Marvin Harrison Jr., Emeka Egbuka and Julian Fleming. 

Michigan is stronger than Washington in the trenches. The Wolverines sacked Alabama's Milroe six times in holding the Crimson Tide to 20 points. Penix isn't as mobile as Milroe. 

Something overlooked in this matchup is penalty yardage. The well-coached Wolverines had the second-fewest penalties in the nation. Washington had more than 70 yards in penalties called against them per game, a difference of about 51 yards compared to Michigan. 

Washington ranked 122nd in pass defense and 41st in run defense. Michigan's star running back Blake Corum ran for 177 yards and three touchdowns when the teams met two seasons ago at Michigan. The Wolverines won that game, 31-10. 

Michigan's ground edge will be even more significant if Dillon Johnson, the Huskies' 1,000-yard rusher, is compromised, or unable to play, because of a lower body injury suffered against Texas in Washington's Super Bowl victory.

North Carolina State has plenty of momentum entering this bowl game. I'm going to ride that here as Kansas State was hit hard by players transferring and opting out. I see a wrong favorite here.

The Wolfpack won and covered their last five games. They won four of those games as underdogs beating Clemson, Miami, Virginia Tech and North Carolina. Kansas State, on the flip side, lost three times as a favorite falling to Missouri, Oklahoma State and Iowa State. The Wildcats are 2-2, 1-2-1 ATS in their last four games.

I'm not a huge fan of North Carolina State QB Brennan Armstrong. But he's an experienced, dual threat who played well against North Carolina in the Wolfpack's last game passing for 334 yards and three touchdowns helping North Carolina State pile up 504 yards in a 39-20 victory.

Now the Wolfpack drop down from facing Drake Maye, maybe the best quarterback in college, to drawing freshman Avery Johnson. He's replacing the Wildcats' starting QB Will Howard, who was one of around 15 Kansas State players leaving. The Wildcats also lost All-Big 12 tight end Ben Sinnott and star safety Kobe Savage. They also won't have offensive coordinator and play-caller Collin Klein. He left for Texas A&M to be the Aggies' offensive coordinator after coaching at Kansas State for seven years.

Only 16 teams ranked ahead of North Carolina State on run defense. The Wolfpack also ranked third in the country in takeaways with 17.

These two teams have changed positions as the season comes to a close. Duke opened 5-1 with just a loss to Notre Dame. But the Blue Devils lost their star QB, Riley Leonard, to injury and went 2-4 the rest of the way falling way out of the top-25. 

Troy opened 1-2 and then won 10 in a row, including defeating Appalachian State, 49-23, in the Sun Belt Conference championship game. The Trojans are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games. 

This is the first time a Sun Belt team is facing a foe from a Power 5 Conference in a bowl game. Troy has more than sufficient motivation. Not so for Duke. The Trojans also will have strong in-state crowd support with this game in Birmingham, Ala. 

I had great respect for Duke coach Mike Elko. But he left for Texas A&M. The Blue Devils not only won't have Leonard, who transferred to Notre Dame, but won't have star defensive linemen Aeneas Peebles and RJ Oben. They each entered the transfer portal. 

Troy averaged 36.5 points in its last six games. The Trojans are also strong defensively ranking sixth in sacks and 15th in total defense. Duke's offense was well below average without Leonard. The Blue Devils ended up ranking 96th in total yards.

Central Florida is making its third Gasparilla Bowl appearance in five seasons. That can't be too exciting for the Knights. I question their motivation and their being favored by more than a field goal in this bowl game.

Georgia Tech is up for this game. It's the Yellow Jackets' first bowl appearance since 2018. Nice coaching job by Brent Key in his second season with Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets were inconsistent, but dangerous as underdogs. 

Georgia Tech was 6-2 ATS as underdogs. The Yellow Jackets lost to Louisville by five points and to Georgia by eight points, two teams better than Central Florida. They beat Miami and North Carolina straight-up as double-digit 'dogs.

Both Central Florida QB John Rhys Plumlee and Georgia Tech's Haynes King are dual threats. Plumlee, though, is not 100 percent because of a lingering knee injury. 

Central Florida ranks 121st in run defense and 85th in defensive total yards. The Knights will be without their top defensive back, Corey Thornton. 

There's going to be lots of scoring in this one - and Georgia Tech will be right there if not on top at the end.

Now that Tahj Brooks is set to play, I like Texas Tech to beat California in the Independence Bowl. The Red Raiders are better than Cal on both sides of the ball and Brooks is the best player on the field. 

Brooks rushed for 1,443 yards, fourth-best in the nation. California finished the regular season ranked 113th in scoring defense and 109th in total defense. The Golden Bears didn't face that many outstanding runners in the Pac-12 because the conference was such a great passing league. 

Texas Tech had an up-and-down season, but is anxious to prove itself again after getting blasted, 57-7, on the road by then seventh-ranked Texas in its final regular season game. The Red Raiders had beaten TCU, then 16th-ranked Kansas and Central Florida during a 17-day span before falling to the Longhorns. 

The Red Raiders also had held eight of their last nine foes to 28 or fewer points before meeting Texas. 

These two teams have gone in opposite directions. New Mexico State is 8-1 SU and ATS in its last nine games. Fresno State fell apart after a promising 8-1 start, losing and failing to cover its final three regular-season games in bad form to San Jose State, New Mexico and San Diego State. The Bulldogs were favored against the Lobos and Aztecs.

New Mexico State is excited to play in this bowl game, which is in its home state. The Lobos should have a strong home crowd. Fresno State can't help but be disappointed to land a minor bowl bid for a game in Albuquerque, N.M.  

The Lobos hold a strong coaching edge, too, with Jerry Kill. He's done a fantastic job turning New Mexico State into a good team. The Lobos won six times straight-up in an underdog role. Fresno State is being coached by Jeff Skipper, who's filling in for Jeff Tedford as Tedford is stepping away due to health concerns.

This is the Big Ten Conference title game. But nothing was bigger for Michigan than beating Ohio State last week. So this matchup is actually a letdown for the Wolverines.

Iowa's offense has gotten better, but obviously this handicap is all about the Hawkeyes' outstanding defense and Michigan being in a letdown spot.

So I'll take this many points given these factors.

The Hawkeyes rank fourth in the nation in scoring defense holding opponents to 12.2 points a game. Only Penn State has scored more than 16 points against Iowa this season.

Michigan isn't going for style points in this matchup. The Wolverines have become heavily ground-oriented. They'll be content to stay on the ground - like they did against Penn State and Ohio State - and grind out a victory while the clock keeps moving. This is tremendously conducive when taking an underdog getting this many points.

West Virginia was picked to finish last in the Big 12 in the preseason poll. Instead it has been Baylor who has been terrible while the Mountaineers have gone 7-4, including 5-3 in the Big 12.

The 3-8 Bears conclude their season with this matchup. It sure looks like they've already packed it in with four straight losses following a 42-17 road loss to TCU last Saturday. Baylor has one of the worst point spread marks in the country at 2-8-1 ATS. 

Baylor was supposed to be solid on defense under Dave Aranda. That hasn't been the case at all. The Bears rank 117th in scoring defense and 109th in total defense. 

Sparked by dual threat quarterback Garrett Greene, the Mountaineers rank fifth in the nation in rushing. They are averaging 38.6 points in their five games if you discount a 59-20 loss to Oklahoma. 

Baylor doesn't have the players, nor the desire, to keep up. The Bears are likely to start backup QB Sawyer Robertson after Blake Shapen suffered chest and head injuries against TCU. Robertson has made three starts this season. The Bears have averaged 8.6 points during those starts. 

Fading New Mexico State in an obvious letdown spot is the major part of my handicap. The Aggies not only have punched their ticket to face Liberty in the Conference USA championship game, but could also have trouble getting up for this game after what happened last week.

What happened last week was the Aggies upsetting Auburn, 31-10, as 25-point road 'dogs. Never in 27 previous attempts had New Mexico State defeated an SEC opponent.

Jacksonville State has won three in a row. The Gamecocks are 8-3 and rank third in the nation in rushing entering this week. 

Texas is 9-1 with a huge non-conference victory against Alabama. But the Longhorns haven't been so high and mighty lately.

During their last five games, the Longhorns lost to Oklahoma, rolled past BYU, only beat Houston by seven points as a 23 1/2-point favorite, edged Kansas State in overtime and nearly blew a 20-point halftime lead against TCU before holding on for a 29-26 victory last Saturday. The Longhorns have been outscored by 30 points in the fourth quarter during their last two games.

Quinn Ewers isn't an elite QB and the Longhorns lost their best running back, Jonathon Brooks, for the season against TCU when he suffered a knee injury.

Now the Longhorns have to go to Ames to take on spunky and well-coached Iowa State. The Cyclones are 4-1 in their last five games, losing only to Kansas during this stretch. Iowa State has a shot to play in the Big 12 title game if it can beat the Longhorns.

Texas hasn't won in Ames since 2017. The Longhorns nipped the Cyclones, 24-21, at home last season failing to cover as 15 1/2-point favorites. Iowa State had beaten Texas the three previous seasons.

The schedule has turned for these two teams - and so have the results.

South Carolina opened 2-6 because it had the toughest schedule up to that point. But now the Gamecocks sit 4-6 after double-digit victories versus Jacksonville State and Vanderbilt. If the Gamecocks win this game and their finale against Clemson, they'll qualify for a bowl game. So they have motivation.

Kentucky already is bowl eligible thanks to an easy early-season schedule where it went 5-0 being favored by 13 or more points in four of those games. Since then, though, the Wildcats have gone 1-4 SU and ATS. 

This spot isn't good either for the Wildcats. They just got beat up by Alabama and have in-state rival Louisville up next. 

South Carolina QB Spencer Rattler has played much better at home with 15 TD passes compared to only two TD throws on the road.

Texas holds numerous edges against TCU. The Longhorns' offense still kept humming the past two games under backup QB Maalik Murphy producing 68 points and more than 800 yards of offense in beating Kansas State and BYU. But Murphy committed four turnovers. The Longhorns survived a scare from Kansas State last week before prevailing in overtime. 

The Longhorns keep all of their offensive edges, but should play a much cleaner game with starting QB Quinn Ewers looking good in practice this week and cleared to play. Ewers has accounted for 18 TD's with three interceptions. He should have success throwing against the Horned Frogs' 83rd ranked pass defense. 

TCU is 1-4 SU and ATS in its last five games. The Horned Frogs were hammered by Kansas State, 41-3, two games ago. I don't see them doing much against a Longhorns' defense that holds foes to fewer than 18 points a game and ranks 33rd in fewest yards allowed. 

The 4-5 Horned Frogs have been one of the most disappointing teams in the nation. 

Miami of Ohio has the second-best overall record in the Mid-American Conference behind 8-1 Toledo. The 7-2 RedHawks' only losses have been to the Miami Hurricanes opening week and Toledo.

Akron is 2-7. The Zips' lone win in the MAC came last Wednesday in dramatic style. The Zips staged a highly unlikely rally by scoring 21 unanswered points in the fourth quarter to pull out a 31-27 victory against rival Kent State in their annual Wagon Wheel game. Akron scored the winning TD with 26 seconds left.

The Zips treated that matchup like their Super Bowl since they won't be going to a bowl game. It was the first time Akron claimed the Wagon Wheel since 2018.

So not only is Miami of Ohio a much better team than Akron, but the Zips are in a monster letdown spot.

Akron had lost by 27 points to Bowling Green in its previous game. Miami of Ohio defeated Bowling Green, 27-0.

Miami of Ohio holds opponents to just 19 points a game. Akron allows more than 29 points per game and ranks in the bottom-10 defensively in points allowed, yards allowed and run defense.

The Redhawks lost their starting QB Brett Gabbert for the season in their loss to Toledo. Miami of Ohio, though, wins in the trenches. The Redhawks beat Ohio, 30-16, as a 7 1/2-point road 'dog in their first full game last week without Gabbert. New starting QB Aveon Smith was 7-of-11 passing for 103 yards with one TD and no interceptions in that game.

Defense trumps offense. That's what it comes down to in this matchup, especially with Alabama in a revenge spot.

LSU nipped the Crimson Tide, 32-31, in overtime at home last season. Now the Tide gets the Tigers in Tuscaloosa.

Alabama is 7-1 with a lone loss to Texas. Since that defeat, the Crimson Tide have rolled to six consecutive victories going 5-1 ATS.

The Crimson Tide rank in the top 17 in fewest points allowed and fewest yards given up per game. They are giving up just 15.1 points in their last six games.

LSU is the best offensive team in the country. Daniels is moving up on the Heisman Trophy list. But the Tigers are similar to USC, a great offense with a poor defense. LSU surrendered 31 points to Arkansas and 55 points to Mississippi. By comparison, Alabama held Mississippi to 10 points and Arkansas to 21 points.

The Tigers' defense is improving. However, Alabama's offense also has shown improvement. A key here is LSU injuries on defense. The Tigers will be without defensive tackle Mekhi Wingo and three of their best defensive backs.

Kansas is coming off one of its biggest football victories in school history having upset Oklahoma at home last Saturday. It was the Jayhawks' first home win against a Top 10 team since 1984. The fans went crazy storming the field. The victory also made the Jayhawks' bowl eligible, which is a big deal for them.

This spells a letdown.

Iowa State is peaking. The Cyclones have won four of their past five games, including the past three. They've held their last three foes, TCU, Cincinnati and Baylor, to an average of 14 points a game.

There's also revenge motivation for Iowa State. The Jayhawks halted a seven-game losing streak to the Cyclones by beating them, 14-11, at home last season.

Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State. That's the upper tier of the Big Ten. Heading up the next tier is Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights are having their best start in 11 years going 6-2, already bowl-eligible. They can stay within this number of Ohio State if not giving the Buckeyes a downright scare.

Rutgers is underrated and Ohio State is overrated. That's the way I see this point spread.

The Scarlet Knights have yet to allow more than 24 points in a game this season. They rank in the top-10 in total defense and No. 2 overall in pass defense. Offensively, the Scarlet Knights have the Big Ten's second-leading rusher, Kyle Monangai, and an offensive line that has allowed just seven sacks, fewest in the Big Ten. Gavin Wimsatt is an improving quarterback.

Ohio State has a great record, but this isn't a great Ohio State team. Kyle McCord is not an elite QB like past Buckeye passers. Ohio State ranks 93rd in rushing and has only five takeaways.

The spot sets up well, too, for Rutgers. Ohio State is on the road a second straight week for the first time this season, while the Scarlet Knights were idle last week.

I find excellent value getting Bowling Green at home laying less than a touchdown to Ball State. 

The Falcons have the better record because they are the superior team. Ball State has a terrible offense. The 2-6 Cardinals average a puny 16.1 points a game and rank 127th in total yards. They have used three quarterbacks, with none of them being any good. 

Ball State just snapped a four-game losing streak by beating Central Michigan, 24-17, this past Saturday as a 5-point home 'dog. That was the Cardinals' first MAC win in four games and makes them a little fat and happy going on the road for this short turnaround game. 

Bowling Green ranks in the top-30 in defensive total yards and pass defense. The Falcons are opportunistic, ranking fifth in takeaways with 12. The Falcons don't have an outstanding QB either, but they have a stud running back in Terion Stewart. He averages 6.1 yards per carry and has gone over 100 yards rushing in four of his last five games.

The Falcons are 4-4 and 2-2 in the MAC. They have played a tough schedule. Their losses are to unbeaten Michigan, unbeaten Liberty and to Ohio and Miami of Ohio, two of the top teams in the MAC. Bowling Green owns an impressive 38-27 road victory against Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets have defeated a pair of top-20 teams in North Carolina and Miami. 

Ball State is a big drop in class for Bowling Green.

We saw North Carolina implode last season losing its last four games after a 9-1 start. The pattern continues this season. The Tar Heels were upset, 31-27, by visiting Virginia as a 24-point favorite last week. That halted the Tar Heels' six-game win streak to start the season and raises serious concerns about North Carolina. 

I think Drake Maye is the best quarterback in college football. But his surrounding talent isn't that good. Neither is North Carolina's defense. Virginia is a very weak offensive team.

Georgia Tech thrives as an underdog. The Yellow Jackets are 9-2 ATS (82 percent) the last 11 times when getting points. Georgia Tech was a heavy underdog to North Carolina each of the last two years. The Yellow Jackets not only covered against the Tar Heels the past two seasons, but beat them straight-up! 

The Yellow Jackets already have scored upset victories against fellow ACC opponents, Miami and Wake Forest, this season. They certainly are capable of not only covering this double-digit spread, but winning straight-up. 

A decline in recruiting and coaching is taking a toll on Boise State. The Broncos are overvalued because of their past reputation. This is such a case. 
The 3-4 Broncos are giving up 30.9 points a game and rank 116th in defensive total yards. 

Wyoming is well-coached under Craig Bohls, can run the ball and has good special teams. The Cowboys are 5-2 SU and ATS. They defeated Texas Tech and Fresno State straight-up as underdogs. The Bulldogs also covered against Air Force and seventh-ranked Texas.

The Cowboys have covered the past four times in this series. 

If Houston didn't hit on a Hail Mary on the final play last week against West Virginia, the Mountaineers may have been a heavier favorite than they are now. That 41-39 loss to Houston halted the Mountaineers' four-game win and covering streak. 

I see West Virginia bouncing back at home against an Oklahoma State team that I don't find very good. 

The Mountaineers are 3-0 SU and ATS at home this year. They've played their past two games on the road. 

Oklahoma State, on the other hand, has been home in its last two games, victories against Kansas State and Kansas. Before those games, the Cowboys had dropped a road game to Iowa State and lost at home to South Alabama, 33-7, as a 7-point favorite.

A plus for West Virginia in the loss to Houston was the play of QB Garrett Greene, who threw for 391 yards and two TD's. Oklahoma State QB Alan Bowman has limited mobility and just a 4-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

This is the lowest football total of the season. So taking more than a field goal where points are going to be at an absolute premium certainly makes sense. 

But that's not just why I like Minnesota so much. 

Iowa is the most bogus Top-25 team in the nation. The Hawkeyes somehow are 6-1 despite being outgained by an average of 50 yards per game! The Hawkeyes have only outgained one of their opponents and that was 2-5 Western Michigan, a bad MAC team. 

Yes, Iowa has a great defense as it usually has. But the Hawkeyes have no offense. They've lost their starting QB, Cade McNamara, and now tight end Erick All, one of their best players, also is done for the season. 

Minnesota doesn't have a QB edge too often, but they do here with strong-armed Athan Kaliakmanis against Deacon Hill, who might be the worst starting QB in the country. Hill was 6-for-14 for 37 yards against Wisconsin last week. His average attempted pass was for just 2.2 yards. The Hawkeyes still managed to beat the Badgers, whose quarterback Tanner Mordecai, was injured in the game. 

Minnesota is well rested having had a bye last week. The 3-3 Gophers are a mediocre Big Ten team. They can't step up against the conference's Big Three of Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State. But they are capable of beating any other Big Ten team, including the much-overrated Hawkeyes.

It's a simple rule when two service academies play one another, think Under and underdog, especially when the number is at double-digits like it is here.

Navy is familiar with Air Force's option ground attack. The Midshipmen have a similar style so they practice against that. Navy ranks fifth in the nation in rushing.

The team's met last season. Navy was a 14-point road 'dog and only lost, 13-10.

Navy has played the tougher schedule and is only giving up 23 points a game.

The clock is constantly going to be moving, especially given the new rules, which is great when backing a double-digit underdog. 

Oklahoma may not be that sharp coming out of its bye having defeated arch-rival Texas in its previous game, 34-30, on a touchdown in the final minute. The Sooners still might be celebrating. 

UCF also is coming off a bye. The extra time allowed dual threat QB John Rhys Plumlee to get healthy after missing most of the last four games. He makes a difference for UCF. The Knights are familiar with Sooners' star QB Dillon Gabriel, who played for UCF from 2019-21. 

The Knights actually average more yards per game than Oklahoma. 

Schedule matters. So does quarterback injuries. Factor these elements in and Western Kentucky is worthy of a play.

Western Kentucky is 4-2 with its only losses coming on the road to Ohio State and Troy, perhaps the best team in the Sun Belt Conference. The Hilltoppers rank 45th in scoring at 32.2 points per game. They have a solid QB in Austin Reed.

Jacksonville State has a worse offense despite playing a much easier schedule. The Gamecocks' 5-2 record is deceiving because those wins have come against UTEP, East Tennessee State, Sam Houston State, Eastern Michigan and Middle Tennessee. Twice Jacksonville State has faced tough competition. Both times the Gamecocks lost and failed to cover, losing at home to Liberty, 31-13, and to Coastal Carolina on the road, 30-16.

The Gamecocks have a weak passing game and their two QB's, Logan Smothers and Zion Webb, are questionable.

I want Kansas State going for me following a 29-21 road loss to Oklahoma State as an 11 1/2-point favorite last week. Will Howard had his worst game throwing three interceptions against the Cowboys. He's much better than that, a grade above Texas Tech backup QB Behren Morton. The Red Raiders rank 94th in pass defense. I'm looking for a strong comeback performance from Howard.

The Wildcats are 11-6 ATS (65 percent) following a loss under Chris Klieman. They also have a good history of winning on the road despite the loss to Oklahoma State. The Wildcats have won at least three road contests in each of Klieman's four previous seasons as Kansas State head coach.

Both teams are strong defensively. But Iowa doesn't have enough offense to stay within double-digits of Wisconsin. The Hawkeyes were 132nd in yards per game at 249.2 and now have to go with backup QB Deacon Hill after starting QB Cade McNamara suffered a season-ending knee injury last week. Hill couldn't win the starting job at Wisconsin before transferring to Iowa. He's a step down from the mediocre McNamara. Iowa has the third-worst passing attack in the country.

Wisconsin is averaging 31.4 points a game. The Badgers have by far the best skilled position player on the field in running back Braelon Allen.

The Badgers also are 3-0 the past three times hosting Iowa.

Just because South Alabama beat a mediocre Oklahoma State on the road doesn't mean the Jaguars are any good. 

Since then, the Jaguars lost, 34-30, to Central Michigan as a 16 1/2-point home favorite and lost to James Madison, 31-22, as a 1-point road 'dog. They are 1-4 ATS on the season. 

It's Terry Bowden's third season at UL Monroe. Improvement has shown for the Warhawks under the respected Bowden. UL Monroe upset Army at home in its opener and should have upset Appalachian State as a 14-point home 'dog last week losing, 41-40, on a 54-yard field goal at the gun. 

The Warhawks have covered six of the past seven times they've been a home 'dog under Bowden. They've also played South Alabama tough. 

The Jaguars beat UL Monroe by seven points last season at home, but failed to cover as 17-point favorites. The Warhawks upset the Jaguars, 41-31, as 13 1/2-point home 'dogs two seasons ago.

Washington State seems on a mission to win the last Pac-12 football championship as we know the league to be. Maybe it's because the Cougars are one of just four teams left in the Pac-12 after the league will break up starting next season.

I like the unbeaten 13th-ranked Cougars to beat UCLA straight-up so getting points is a bonus.

I trust Washington State QB Cameron Ward, who has completed nearly 75 percent of his throws for 1,390 yards and 13 TD's with no interceptions. UCLA QB Dante Moore can't match Ward at this early stage of his college career being a freshman and inconsistent.

Utah held the Bruins to just seven points in a 14-7 win in UCLA's last game. Moore was only 15-of-35 passing in that game. The Bruins were 3-for-17 on third down.

The Cougars have proven themselves with upset wins against Wisconsin and Oregon State.

To say Sam Houston State is struggling transitioning into the FCS would be an understatement. The Bearkats are 0-5 and have by far the worst offense in the nation averaging 9.5 points and 219.8 yards a game.

These numbers include a surprising performance against Jacksonville State last Thursday when the Bearkats almost upset the Gamecocks losing, 35-28, in overtime.

But while the Bearkats are off a tough overtime loss, Liberty was idle last week. The Flames are 4-0 SU and ATS. They are prime contenders to win Conference USA. They've produced 33 or more points in each of their games. All of their victories have been by double-digits. QB Kaidon Salter has an 11-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He's only been sacked three times.

Sam Houston State ranks 116th in run defense. So Liberty should have its way both on the ground and through the air.

Jacksonville State is 4-1 while Middle Tennessee State is 1-4. Yet the Blue Raiders are the favorites. 

Surprised? Don't be. Middle Tennessee State is the right side. 

The Blue Raiders have played a far tougher schedule than Jacksonville State going against Alabama, Missouri - who they lost to by just four points on the road - Colorado State and Western Kentucky. 

Middle Tennessee State desperately needs to win this home game to even its Conference USA record to 1-1. 

Jacksonville State had to come from two touchdowns behind to defeat winless Sam Houston State in overtime, 35-28. Sam Houston State entered that matchup as the most punchless team in the nation having scored 10 points during its first three games. 

That game was played this past Thursday. So the Gamecocks will be playing a second consecutive road game within the span of six days. 

Houston isn't any good this season. Losses to Rice and to TCU by 23 points at home are evidence of that.

Texas Tech has had three one-score losses, including one to Oregon. The Red Raiders should be able to take out their frustrations against the Cougars in what will be an emotional setting. They are honoring players and coaches into their Hall of Fame, including the late Mike Leach.

I'm fine with Behren Morton taking over at QB for the Red Raiders after Tyler Shough suffered a broken leg last Saturday against West Virginia. Morton has experience having started four games last season.

Penn State is getting a lot of love so far this season. Too much in my view given this inflated point spread.

Iowa is improved at quarterback. Its defense remains first-rate and I give a checkmark in coaching to the Hawkeyes in a matchup of Kirk Ferentz versus James Franklin.

Penn State hasn't faced a defense the caliber of Iowa's yet this season. The Nittany Lions also haven't beaten Iowa by more than six points during the last six seasons. The teams didn't meet last year. Iowa defeated Penn State in 2021 and 2020.

The Hawkeyes are 7-2 ATS the last nine times they've been a road 'dog during the regular season.

No argument that Penn State has the superior skill position. But the Hawkeyes are always tough in the trenches and they are upgraded at QB this season with the transfer of former Michigan QB Cade McNamara.

Alabama has won 103 out of 112 home games under Nick Saban for 92 percent. It's rare to find the Crimson Tide such a small favorite at home. You have to go back eight years to find the last time Alabama was such a small home favorite.

But the Crimson Tide lost a lot of public support when they were upset at home by Texas.

I see this as a buy-low spot on Alabama. The Crimson Tide still are loaded at nearly every position and Saban made the right move to go back to Jalen Milroe as his starting QB. Milroe is better than Tyler Buchner.

Mississippi's 3-0 record looks good on paper. But the Rebels have played a fairly weak schedule - Mercer, Tulane and Georgia Tech.

The Crimson Tide has dominated the Rebels, beating them by an average of more than 33 points per game during the past six meetings.

The oddsmaker may know the Power-5 conferences well, but he got this Sun Belt Conference matchup wrong. Coastal Carolina should not be nearly as high as a TD favorite against Georgia State.

I downgraded Coastal Carolina with the coaching change from respected Jamey Chadwell to first-year head man Tim Beck. The Chanticleers have had one of the better QB's in the league with Grayson McCall. But so far McCall hasn't been playing as well as he has in the past. He's been picked off twice and sacked seven times. Coastal Carolina is one-dimensional averaging an unimpressive 3.8 yards on the ground.

Georgia State thrives on turnovers and is strong at quarterback and running back. The Panthers are 3-0. They've averaged more than two takeaways per game during their last 15 games and have already forced seven turnovers this season.

Panthers QB Darren Grainger has a 6-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio while completing 73.4 percent of his passes. Grainger and stud running back Marcus Carroll have combined to rush for 574 yards and nine rushing touchdowns. Coastal Carolina ranks 111th in run defense allowing 174 yards on the ground per game.

Kudos to Texas for upsetting Alabama on the road last week. That victory vaulted the Longhorns into a top-five rating in the AP poll for the first time since 2010.

It also puts the Longhorns in danger of letting down against Wyoming, especially since they have a bigger game on deck when they play at Baylor next week to begin Big 12 Conference play.

Texas has great skill position talent, but Wyoming isn't getting enough respect.

The Cowboys are a solid Mountain West Conference program under Craig Bohl. They've gone bowling five of the past six years, not including the 2020 shortened Covid season.

Wyoming is 2-0. The Cowboys are 8-2-1 ATS the last two plus seasons when taking a field goal or more. They've already scored one major upset this year defeating Texas Tech, 35-33 in overtime, as 13 1/2-point home 'dogs.

The Cowboys are not flashy. But they have a solid defense, can run the ball effectively and have a competent QB in Andrew Peasley.

I find Tennessee and its quarterback, Joe Milton, to be overrated. Considering the Volunteers haven't won at Florida since 2003, I'm going to take this many points with the Gators.

Tennessee only beat Austin Peay, 30-13, last Saturday as a 48 1/2-point home favorite. The Governors were within 10 points still in the fourth quarter. That raises a big red flag.

Wisconsin transfer QB Graham Mertz is getting more accustomed to operating Florida's offense.

Rutgers beat a horrible, rudderless Northwestern team, 24-7, last week. Apparently the oddsmaker thinks that's a big deal judging by how many points the Scarlet Knights are favored by here.

Let's not forget Rutgers losing eight of its last nine games last year, including getting blown out by Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, Minnesota and Maryland. 

Temple could surprise in the AAC with 16 returning starters. The Owls have one of the conference's better QB's in E.J. Warner, son of Hall of Fame QB Kurt Warner. 

The teams met last season. Rutgers was outgained by 58 yards, but managed to slip past the Owls, 16-14. 

The Scarlet Knights are 1-8 ATS off a double-digit point spread cover. 

This is a huge revenge spot for Wisconsin. The Badgers were stunned at home by Washington State last year, 17-14. That also was during the second week of the season. The Badgers, though, should have won. They outgained the Cougars by 148 yards and had a 38:02 to 21:58 advantage in time of possession. However, the Badgers turned the ball over three times and missed two field goals.

Don't look for the Badgers to be that sloppy again. They are focused, motivated and have upgraded their coaching going from conservative and stale Paul Chryst to Luke Fickell. Wisconsin also improved greatly at quarterback going from disappointing Graham Mertz to SMU transfer Tanner Mordecai, who threw 72 touchdown passes for the Mustangs in two seasons.

Cameron Ward had a huge game for Washington State leading the Cougars to a 50-24 win against Colorado State. The Cougars couldn't get a ground attack going, though, They ran the ball 37 times against the Rams and could average 2.4 yards per carry.

Unlike Washington State, the Badgers are balanced. They have one of the running back tandems in the country with Braelon Allen and Chez Mellusi.

Thanks to Mike Elko, Duke is more than a basketball school when it comes to sports. Elko has turned the Blue Devils around. Duke went 9-4 in Elko's first season last year after going a combined 5-18 the previous two seasons. The Blue Devils capped off their magical season beating UCF, 30-13, in the Military Bowl.

This will be one of the Blue Devil's biggest home football games ever having the national spotlight on them for Labor Day.

Clemson hasn't been the dominant power of a few seasons ago. Sure the Tigers have star power. But Duke is no one-year fluke. The Blue Devils have star power, too, including QB Riley Leonard. The dual threat QB accounted for 33 TD's and more than 3,600 yards of total offense last season.

Duke retained nearly 100 percent of its offensive production from last season and some very good defensive players, including lineman DeWayne Carter and safety Brandon Johnson. The Blue Devils ranked 28th in rush defense in 2022 and 37th in scoring defense holding foes to 22 points a game.

South Carolina covered four of its last five regular-season games last year as an underdog, including upsetting then No. 5 Tennessee and No. 7 Clemson straight-up.

So the Gamecocks are more than capable of beating North Carolina straight-up as a small 'dog. 

There's been a lot of preseason publicity about North Carolina QB Drake Maye. He could be a top-three Heisman Trophy contender. The strength of South Carolina's defense is its secondary, though. The Gamecocks have three starters back from a secondary that led the SEC in interceptions last season.

South Carolina also has a very good QB, too, in Shane Rattler. He's a gunslinger and facing a Tar Heels secondary that ranked 111th in pass defense.

The Gamecocks also get the special teams checkmark thanks to coach Shane Beamer, who like his father, Frank, has outstanding special teams.