There have been a lot of bad beats in this NCAA Tournament. I don't see San Diego State winning this game. But I could see the Aztecs hanging around. Until the end that is when they start fouling a lot, which allows the Huskies to cover this number.

Then again, the Huskies just could outclass the Aztecs. They are the better all-around team. Both teams are outstanding defensively.

However, Connecticut is averaging 79.8 points in the NCAA Tournament. The Huskies have scored 70 or more points in 30 games. They rank third in offensive efficiency, according to KenPom's numbers. San Diego State can't match that.

Connecticut hasn't allowed more than 70 points in its last nine games - all played in March. The Huskies just held Gonzaga to 54 points and Miami to 59 points. Those were season lows in points for both of those teams.

Much respect to San Diego State for getting to this late stage. But I'm not going against the Huskies here.

There's only one way to play the total in this game - and it's not to the Over.

San Diego State is an Under machine. The Aztecs have gone Under in their last 12 games and 14 of their past 15! Florida Atlantic is a big-scoring team reliant on 3-point accuracy. But the Owls haven't faced a 3-point defense as good as San Diego State. The Aztecs have held foes to below 28 percent shooting from 3-point range.

Florida Atlantic ranks in the top 40 in defensive field goal percentage. The Owls have given up an average of fewer than 65 points during their seven post-season games, five of which went Under. San Diego State doesn't have a player who averages even 11 points a game in the NCAA Tournament.

The game is being played at NRG Stadium in Houston. That's a football stadium where the Texans play. It's a huge structure with an unusual shooting backdrop for college basketball teams. It's a huge plus for the Under.

Alabama-Birmingham has been the best team in the NIT. I'm going to ride the Blazers here. UAB defeated Southern Mississippi and Morehead State by double-digits in the tournament and then reached this semifinal match by defeating Vanderbilt, 67-59, on the road.

The Blazers have done all this despite their top scorer and best player, senior guard Jordan Walker, shooting just 35.4 percent from the field during the tournament. Walker averaged 23 points during the regular season while shooting 42.3 percent from the floor.

UAB is winning by playing its best defense holding their three NIT opponents to an average of 59.3 points. None of these opponents were able to score more than 60 points on the Blazers.

Utah Valley is giving up an average of 74 points in its last four games.

I see a class difference of more than this point spread between UAB of Conference USA and Utah Valley from the Western Athletic Conference. The Blazers are 15-2 in their last 17 games. Their only losses during this time span were on the road to North Texas in overtime and to Florida Atlantic in the finals of the conference tournament game. North Texas plays Wisconsin in the other NIT semifinal and Florida Atlantic is one of four teams left in the NCAA Tournament.

Miami had a great win against Houston on Friday. But the Hurricanes don't match up well to Texas. The Longhorns are averaging eight more points in the paint than Miami during the NCAA Tournament and playing outstanding defense.

Texas is giving up an average of only 60 points during its last seven games. The Longhorns beat top-seeded Kansas to capture the Big 12 Conference Tournament and are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight games. They are a team that has peaked at the perfect time after a mediocre late February stretch. Interim Longhorns coach Rodney Terry has made all the right moves.

Miami, on the other hand, finished its ACC regular season blowing a 25-point lead in a home loss to Florida State and then barely beat Pittsburgh failing to cover as a 7 1/2-point home favorite. Then in the ACC Tournament, the Hurricanes only beat Wake Forest by two points followed by a seven-point loss to Duke. The Hurricanes weren't that sharp either against Drake in the NCAA Tournament.

It's a bonus if Big 12 Tournament MVP big man Dylan Disu is able to play for Texas after suffering a foot injury in the Longhorns' Friday win against Xavier. Miami isn't set up to take advantage if Disu can't play. The Hurricanes do their damage from the perimeter rather than inside.

Texas has other capable scorers, including Marcus Carr, Timmy Allen and Sir Jabari Rice. Carr and Allen have scored more than 2,000 career points.

I want Texas' defense, the outstanding coaching of Terry and the Longhorns' hot point spread mark going for me.

Florida Atlantic is on house money having never advanced this far. The Owls have a strong backcourt. But I'm going with Kansas State coming out of the Big 12 and having two star players, point guard Markquis Nowell and Keyonate Johnson. There might not have been a tougher conference in the country than the Big 12.

Nowell and Johnson give Kansas State the talent edge.

Nowell, averaging 17.2 points, 8.1 assists and 2.5 steals, has been the star of the tournament. He sparked the Wildcats past Michigan State and Kentucky.

Kansas State has covered 77 percent during their past 22 games against above .500 opponents going 17-5.

Texas can win either by its defense or offense. They are one of just four schools that rank in the Top 20 in both adjusted offensive efficiency and adjusted defensive efficiency.

Xavier is heavily reliant on offense. The Musketeers rank 305th defensively. They average 82.1 points, however, which ranks 12th.

Texas, though, is playing outstanding defense. The Longhorns have held their last six opponents - Kansas twice, Oklahoma State, TCU, Colgate and Penn State - to an average of only 58.2 points a game.

Xavier's season-long numbers are skewed. The Musketeers haven't been that potent since losing their second-leading scorer, Zach Freemantle, at the end of January. He was averaging 15.2 points, while shooting 58.5 percent from the floor. Xavier has rarely encountered an opponent as athletic and defensively sound as the Longhorns.

The Longhorns haven't missed a beat since Rodney Terry replaced Chris Beard as head coach in January. The Longhorns upset Kansas to win the Big 12 Conference Tournament. They are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games.

Tom Izzo is a great coach. But Michigan State is getting too much respect here because of that. Kansas State is the better team. So I'll back the Wildcats in an underdog role. 

The Wildcats have been underrated on the line all season. They have covered 16 of the past 21 times versus above .500 opponents. 

Michigan State missed 14 of 16 3-point shots in its win against Marquette. The Spartans won't survive Kansas State if they don't shoot a whole lot better from beyond the arc. The Wildcats have the superior defense. They rank 13th in 3-point defense. 

The Spartans are averaging just 66.3 points in their last three games. 

Both team's defenses were solid during the regular season. But they've each stepped up during the postseason. Now, with ample time to prepare, expect both defenses to be at their finest.

Michigan State has a top-100 defense. The Spartans rank 33rd in 3-point defense. They've held their past three opponents to an average of 63.3 points. This includes holding Marquette to 21 points under its season average. Coaching guru Tom Izzo has plenty of time to work on defensive schemes designed to bother this specific opponent. Look for Michigan State to play at a slow tempo.

Kansas State has been a high level defensive team since last month. The Wildcats are giving up an average of 67 points during their last two games. They just held Kentucky six points under its season average.

Note the Madison Square Garden venue, too. This is a huge arena making it tough for teams unfamiliar with this arena to shoot a high percentage.

Oddsmaker opened Vanderbilt the favorite. Wrong. Alabama-Birmingham is the better team. That's the way the marketplace has so far reacted and I'm in agreement.

Vanderbilt is home and off an impressive victory against big-name Michigan. So it's understandable why the oddsmaker opened the Commodores the favorite.

But UAB is hot - 14-2 in its last 16 games, including six straight wins - and holds several key edges.

The Blazers have a rebounding edge being one of the top offensive rebounding teams in the country. The Commodores are minus their top rebounder, injured Liam Robbins. UAB also has a deeper bench. This is important, too, because the Blazers play at an extremely fast tempo. Vanderbilt has a shorter rotation making it more vulnerable to getting worn down, especially this late in the season.

Both teams played Southern Mississippi. The Blazers buried Southern Mississippi, 88-60, in their first-round NIT game. Vanderbilt lost to Southern Mississippi, 60-48, at home early in the season.

UAB is coached by Andy Kennedy, who knows the SEC well having been the head coach at Mississippi. The Blazers are 2-0 versus SEC teams this season beating Georgia at a neutral site and South Carolina at home.

I like San Jose State to win this College Basketball Invitational matchup by double-digits. 

The Spartans play in the superior conference being in the Mountain West Conference compared to Radford, which finished third in the Big South Conference. San Jose State plays strong defense, is in better current form than Radford, is the superior rebounding team and much better at the free throw line.

San Jose State is 5-1 in its last six games. The Spartans have been playing tremendous defense giving up an average of 58.8 points during their last seven games. 

Radford averages fewer than 70 points a game. The Highlanders are 290th in free throw percentage at 68.8 percent. Radford has a losing record in its last seven games. 

San Jose State has been a reliable point spread team covering 20 of its last 28 games for 71 percent. 

Death, taxes and Gonzaga making the Sweet 16. The Bulldogs are gunning to make the Final 16 teams in the NCAA Tournament for the eighth straight time. I see them doing it, too, against TCU.

Gonzaga is peaking at the right time as the Bulldogs annually do. TCU is 3-8 ATS the past 11 times when facing an above .500 opponent.

I don't trust the Horned Frogs to stay with Gonzaga in the scoring column. Six-foot-10 star Drew Timme is going to cause problems inside for TCU and the Horned Frogs don't have enough of a strong perimeter game to compensate. They rank a hideous 353rd in 3-point accuracy.

TCU nearly didn't even reach this stage. The Horned Frogs needed a basket with 1.5 seconds left to get past Arizona State in their first round game. TCU is 0-6 ATS the past six times following a victory.

Strength of schedule means a lot when getting involved in the College Basketball Invitational Tournament.

I have Tarleton State power-rated higher than Radford. Key reasons for that is the superior competition the Texans played along with being in the Western Athletic Conference. Radford, out of the Big South Conference, was 275th in strength of schedule.

Tarleton State faced the 16th-toughest non-conference schedule. The Texans beat Belmont, which won 21 games, and Boston College of the ACC. The Texans also played NCAA Tournament teams Arizona State, Baylor and Drake.

Radford also is 1-5 ATS in its last six games.

Penn State has the right combination to upset Texas. The Nittany Lions are peaking at the perfect time going 9-2 in their last 11 games, covering in their past five matchup.

The Nittany Lions have a great guard in Jalen Pickett. They have veterans who don't get rattled and are tremendous as underdogs covering the past nine times in that role. Penn State also is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 neutral site games. The Nittany Lions are 6-1 SU the past seven times they've played a tournament team.

The pressure is all on Texas. The Longhorns haven't responded well before to this type of pressure going 2-11 ATS in their last 13 NCAA Tournament games. Interim Longhorns coach Rodney Terry lacks NCAA Tournament experience. So that's a question mark.

Penn State is 21-8-1 (72 percent) ATS the past 30 times when playing an opponent with a winning percentage above .600.

Houston may be the top seed in the Midwest Regional, but the Cougars are in trouble against Auburn. The Cougars haven't been playing well going 1-6 ATS in their last seven games. They lost by 10 points to Memphis in the American Athletic Conference Tournament title game and only beat 16th-seeded Northern Kentucky, 63-52, this past Thursday in their first-round NCAA Tournament game.

Star guard Marcus Sasser aggravated a groin injury against Northern Kentucky. His status is questionable. Jamal Shead, Houston's top assists player, also isn't 100 percent with a knee injury.

Auburn is a tough opponent for the Cougars. The Tigers are playing excellent defense, not turning the ball over and are battle tested having dealt with upper tier competition being in the SEC.

Auburn beat Iowa, 83-75, to win its 11th straight opening-round NCAA Tournament game. The Tigers took No. 1 ranked Alabama to overtime on the road and beat Tennessee by nine points during their last two regular season games. They are 6-1 ATS in their last seven NCAA Tournament games.

Princeton successfully outrebounded and slowed down Arizona, 59-55, in their first-round NCAA Tournament victory. The Tigers certainly can do the same to Missouri.

The Tigers held Arizona to 28 points below its season average. Missouri held Utah State to 14 points below the Aggies' season average in a 76-65 first-round tournament win on Thursday. 

No way Princeton gets into a track meet with Missouri so I find this total too high especially because Princeton also is very strong on the defensive glass, ranking in the top 10 in defensive rebounding. 

The Under has cashed six of the last seven times Princeton has played on a neutral court. 

Missouri is underrated defensively in this matchup with its defensive statistics skewed playing in the SEC. Now the Tigers are facing an Ivy League opponent. 

Missouri held Utah State to 4-of-24 shooting from 3-point range. Princeton missed 21 of 25 3-point shots against Arizona. Princeton is a below average 3-point shooting team so the Tigers should not be able to hurt Missouri from beyond the arc. 

This is my Game of the Week.

Drake is a trendy pick to upset Miami in this NCAA Tournament matchup. But I don't see the Bulldogs pulling the upset even if the Hurricanes don't have Norchad Omier, their second-leading rebounder. He's questionable after suffering a knee injury against Duke last Friday.

Miami has many other scorers, including star guard and ACC Player of the Year, Isaiah Wong.

I respect Drake and the Missouri Valley Conference. Drake demolishing Bradley in the MVC Tournament title game, though, is less impressive after the Braves were buried by Big Ten disappointment Wisconsin in the NIT.

Miami is the superior team having beaten ranked opponents Virginia, Clemson and Pittsburgh along with scoring non-conference wins against Providence, Central Florida and Rutgers. Drake doesn't have that kind of resume.

I'm not in love laying this many points in an NCAA Tournament game, but it's justified in this mismatch of Texas versus Colgate of the Patriot League. 
Texas has the outstanding guard play, experience, depth and defense to make a serious run in the tournament. 

Colgate played the 332nd easiest schedule. The Patriot League - a minor conference to start with - was especially terrible this season. The Raiders haven't faced a team with the athletic ability and size of Texas. The best team they played was Auburn and the Tigers buried them, 93-66. shooting 55 percent from the field. 

The Longhorns average nearly 79 points a game. They've been playing great defense, too, holding their last four opponents - Kansas twice, TCU and Oklahoma State - to an average of 55.5 points a game. 

Utah State and Missouri are two of the highest-scoring teams in the nation. Utah State averages 79.1 points while the Tigers average 80.1 points.
So why get involved in this track meet? 

Because Missouri is the superior team. I largely base this opinion on the quality of opponents each team has played. Utah State finishing second in the Mountain West Conference doesn't impress me as much as Missouri finishing fourth in the SEC. Missouri also has a number of significant victories that Utah State lacks. 

The Tigers have the potential to go far in this tournament. Something I can't envision for Utah State. 

Missouri struggled against high-level, elite talent teams such as Alabama and Kansas. Utah State isn't nearly in that class. The Tigers scored numerous impressive victories that Utah State didn't achieve. I point to the Tigers scoring 93 points in an 18-point neutral court win against Illinois, scoring 78 points in a 17-point win against Iowa State and beating Tennessee twice, including posting 86 points against the Volunteers on the road. 

Missouri is 22-0 this season when scoring at least 70 points. Utah State allows an average of 70 points a game. The Aggies also rank 294th in defensive 3-point percentage. Missouri can exploit that. 

Florida was hoping to get back into the NCAA Tournament. The Gators were on the bubble until mid-February when their best player, Colin Castleton, went down for the season with a broken hand. Without Castleton, their leading scorer and rebounder, the Gators went 2-4. They were blown out by Arkansas and Vanderbilt during this span and then eliminated in the first round of the SEC Conference Tournament, beaten by Mississippi State.

The Gators aren't nearly as good without Castleton and they aren't going to be highly motivated playing in the NIT again after failing to reach the NCAA Tournament for the second straight year.

Central Florida will be the more motivated team. This is the Knights' chance to beat an in-state SEC rival.

The Knights are certainly capable. They have a top-50 defense, while ranking No. 32 in 3-point defense. The Knights are 17-13. Florida is 16-15. Central Florida upset Wichita State and Mississippi on the road. The Knights also upset Oklahoma State on a neutral court. They also lost by one point at Memphis during the regular season and then played the peaking Tigers tough in the American Athletic Conference Tournament losing by five points.

I'm going to ride Texas Southern's momentum and point spread record at neutral sites in this NCAA Tournament play-in game at Dayton, Ohio.

The Tigers upset both Alcorn State and Grambling on their way to winning their third straight Southwest Athletic Conference title. 

Texas Southern is 15-4-2 ATS in its last 21 neutral site games. 

Fairleigh Dickinson would not even be in this position if Merrimack had been eligible to play in the NCAA Tournament. 

Fairleigh Dickinson is 2-10 ATS in its last dozen neutral site contests. 

Two slow tempo teams. Two strong defensive clubs. Plus injuries. Factor all of that in and you have the basis for a strong Under play here.

Villanova is one of the slowest-paced teams in the nation. The Wildcats are facing a Liberty defense that ranks eighth in the country surrendering only 60.2 points a game. Both teams are strong on the defensive glass.

The Wildcats have four players who score in double figures. Justin Moore and Cam Whitmore are two of them - and both could be out due to soreness and in Whitmore's case an eye injury.

Credit to Southeast Missouri State capturing the Ohio Valley Conference Tournament as a No. 5 seed. But I don't see the Redhawks getting past Texas A&M Corpus Christi.

Texas A&M Corpus Christi is hot, winning 12 of its last 13 games, and are battle tested. The Islanders captured the Southland Conference Tournament title for the second year in a row. They also won the regular season championship. Southeast Missouri State last made the NCAA Tournament 23 years ago.

Both teams play fast and can score. The big difference is at the free throw line. Southeast Missouri State ranks 226th in free throw percentage. The Islanders rank fifth in the nation in free throw percentage at 79.1 percent.

I'm taking the points with Memphis in this American Athletic Conference Championship Tournament game. The Tigers play Houston tough and the Cougars aren't likely to have their leading scorer, Marcus Sasser, for this game. He's doubtful with a groin injury. Even if he were to play he'd be far from 100 percent. 

Sasser averages 17 points a game. No other Houston player averages more than 14 points.

Memphis is the fifth-highest scoring team in the nation led by superstar scorers, DeAndre Williams and Kendrick Davis. They combine to average nearly 58 points a game.

The Cougars beat Memphis in both regular season meetings. But their combined winning margin was five points. Sasser played in both of those games, averaging a combined 16 points.

Houston has the No. 2 defensive team in the country. The Cougars, though, are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight games. Memphis averages 79.5 points a game, which is fifth-best in the nation.

A key here is the Tigers also have been playing excellent defense. They rank 34th in the country in defensive field goal percentage and have held their last four opponents to an average of 64.7 points.

Santa Barbara is riding a lot of momentum and had the easier path to reach this game. The Gauchos have won their last six games going 5-0-1 ATS.

Cal-State Fullerton had to go overtime to beat Hawaii this past Thursday and then upset Cal-Irvine in a tough game last night. 

These teams are close defensively, but the Gauchos shoot the ball far better than the Titans. 

Utah State averages nearly 80 points a game. But the Aggies are heavily reliant on their 3-point shooting.

San Diego State has an elite defense, especially when it comes to defending 3-pointers. The Aztecs rank 15th in the country in 3-point defense.

The Aztecs are in top defensive form, too. They just held San Jose State to 49 points. San Diego State is 10-4-1 ATS in its last 15 games and 8-2-1 ATS versus above .500 opponents.

San Diego State beat Utah State in the last meeting. Look for the Aztecs to do it again here.

There were 123 points scored when these teams last met. That was no fluke. These teams play slow and points are at a premium.

That's especially so during the Big West Conference Tournament, which is played at the neutral site of the Dollar Loan Center in Henderson, Nev.

All four Big West Tourney games went Under on Thursday, including Fullerton-Hawaii, which went to overtime. All together, the Under has cashed in five of the six Big West Tourney games.

Fullerton has not scored more than 62 points in regulation during its last four games. Irvine is averaging 53.3 points in its last three games.

I find this line to be way short given how well Sam Houston State has been playing. 

Not only does Sam Houston State outscore Grand Canyon on the season, but the Bearkats are the fifth-best defensive team in the nation both in scoring defense and defensive field goal percentage.

The 25-6 Bearkats are peaking at the perfect time. They've won eight in a row going 7-1 ATS. 

Sam Houston State has held their last seven opponents to an average of 53.7 points in regulation. None of these foes was able to reach 60 points. 
Grand Canyon was three games worse than Sam Houston State during the Western Athletic Conference regular season. The Lopes are 22-11 on the season. 

Sam Houston State is 9-1-1 ATS the past 11 times when playing an opponent with a winning record.  

Washington State is peaking at the right time. The Cougars have won their last seven games. I like their chances against Oregon, which hasn't played in five days, in this Pac-12 Conference Tournament matchup.

Oregon has failed to cover in eight of its last 10 neutral site games.

The teams just met on Feb. 19 at Washington State and the Cougars won, 68-65.

Nevada had little trouble handling San Jose State during the regular season. The Wolf Pack beat the Spartans, 66-51, at home and 67-40 on the road.

I don't see the Wolf Pack encountering problems in this Mountain West Conference Tournament matchup at neutral site Las Vegas.

Nevada has covered 13 of its last 18 neutral site games.

San Jose State is a one-man show when it comes to scoring. Omari Moore is the Spartans' only player averaging double-figures in scoring. The Spartans will need to hit their 3-pointers to stay in the game. They are not a good long-range shooting team.

Nevada is the deeper and superior team with two excellent defenders, Tre Coleman and Kenan Blackhshear, to limit Moore and clamp down on the Spartans inside.

Georgetown has failed to break 70 points during its last five games. The Hoyas managed only 59 points against Creighton in their last game.

Villanova gives up fewer than 68 points per game on the season. The Hoyas are going to have to earn their points the hard way as they are one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the country.

This should be a very slow-paced game. Villanova plays at the slowest tempo of any Big East team.

Note, too, the venue: Madison Square Garden. This is a spacious arena with a history of Unders. The Under has cashed 69 percent of the time during the past 39 instances when there has been a total of 136 or higher at this arena in postseason college games.

I get that it's been a very disappointing season for Wisconsin, who are 17-13 and went 9-11 in the Big Ten. But the Badgers underdogs to Ohio State? No way.

The Buckeyes are 13-18, 5-15 in the Big Ten. They had a prolonged stretch where they went 1-14 in the Big Ten. The Buckeyes aren't winning five games in five days through the Big Ten Conference Tournament gauntlet to make the NCAA Tournament - and they know it.

Wisconsin is capable of beating any team, something Ohio State isn't. The Badgers defeated sixth-ranked Marquette and took third-ranked Kansas to overtime. The Badgers are a bubble team. They know they must win at least the next three games to stay in realistic contention for an NCAA Tournament bid.

The Badgers have an elite defense, giving up 63.8 points. That ranks them 33rd in the nation and is six points fewer per game than Ohio State allows.

Wisconsin holds a big coaching edge, too, with Greg Gard against Chris Holtmann.

The teams met once during the regular season. The Badgers beat the Buckeyes, 65-60, at Ohio State. Now they're playing at a neutral site.

This is a cheap price to get Stephen F. Austin in this first round Western Athletic Conference Tournament matchup. The Lumberjacks are 19-12 and the No. 6 seed in the tournament. They are a darkhorse to win the tourney.

Utah Tech is 13-18. The Trailblazers won just five of 18 conference games. They are 2-5 in their last seven games. 

Stephen F. Austin had no problem handling the Trailblazers when they played in Utah during the regular season, winning 85-72. 

This isn't the St. Peter's team of last season. The Peacocks haven't been awful as some might have thought they'd be in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference, but they are far from good after losing so much from last year. 

I don't see the Peacocks getting past Fairfield in this MAAC Tournament. 

St. Peter's has the worst offense in the conference. Nationally, the Peacocks rank 352nd in scoring, 361th in field goal percentage and 357th in 3-point percentage. 

Fairfield isn't much better offensively, but the Staggs play tough defense and just scored 92 points against Quinnipiac. St. Peter's is averaging 58.5 points in regulation during its last six years. 

The Stags defeated St. Peter's in both regular season meetings, winning 56-52 on the road on Jan. 15 and 67-55 at home on Dec. 3. 

The 12-17 Peacocks nipped Siena, 73-72, in overtime during their last game. St. Peter's, however, is 0-11 ATS after covering in their previous game. 

Fairfield is 19-7 ATS the past 26 times against below .500 foes.

Florida State coach Leonard Hamilton may have said it best when asked about the Atlantic Coast Conference Tournament, which begins today. ''We have our work cut out for us with who we are this particular year,'' Hamilton said.

That's certainly true. Florida State is 9-22. The Seminoles are 2-9 in their last 11 games. They have failed to cover in eight of their last nine games. I don't see them upsetting Georgia Tech in this ACC tournament opener.

The Yellow Jackets have gotten hot, winning five of the last six games. They have covered in each of their last eight games.

Georgia Tech has momentum and its confidence up. Skidding Florida State just lost by 22 points to Virginia Tech as a 10-point road 'dog this past Saturday.

Backing the Yellow Jackets on the money line should be a safe play.

Idaho State is 11-20. I'm surprised the Bengals even have that many wins because they are terrible.

Montana has underachieved in going 16-13, 10-7 in the Big Sky. But the Grizzlies have a huge talent edge here along with momentum. The fourth-seeded Grizzlies are very live to capture the Big Sky Conference Tournament.

Montana is 7-1 in its last eight games. Idaho State is 2-5 in its last seven games. Josh Bannan and Aanen Moody give the Grizzlies the two best players on the court.

The Grizzlies were 2-0 against Idaho State during the regular season winning 84-55 at home and 69-61 on the road.

Don't overthink this one. Louisiana Lafayette is 25-7 and 13-5 in the Sun Belt Conference. South Alabama is 19-15 and 9-9 in the Sun Belt. Lafayette has the superior record and is the better team.

So I like the Ragin' Cajuns to win this game. That's why I'm going with them on the money line.

Lafayette won both regular season meetings against South Alabama beating the Jaguars, 79-76 and 74-64. The Ragin Cajuns average nearly eight more points per game than the Jaguars.

Barring the unlikely possibility of winning the Big Ten Conference Tournament, Wisconsin better win this game if it has any chance of earning an NCAA Tourney bid.

The Badgers are 16-13 with a lot of close losses, including a 63-61 home loss to fifth-ranked Purdue this past Thursday.

Wisconsin should take care of business against Minnesota, a team it has defeated 14 of the last 16 times, including the past five. The Badgers are 5-0 ATS following a loss.

Minnesota, 2-16 in the Big Ten, is in a rare fat-and-happy mood having ended a 12-game losing streak with a 75-74 home upset win against Rutgers this past Thursday.

Back when UNLV was playing much better, the Rebels defeated Nevada, 68-62, at home on Jan. 28. Since then UNLV only has managed to beat three of the four worst teams in the Mountain West Conference. The Rebels were a no-show in their last game, a 91-66 home loss to Utah State this past Wednesday.

If it wasn't for a last-second tip-in in a 54-53 home win against Air Force, the Rebels would be 0-5 in their last five games.

So I don't see the Rebels staying with revenge-minded Nevada.

The 22-8 Wolf Pack need this game to have a good chance of landing an NCAA Tournament berth. Nevada is a perfect 15-0 at home. The Wolf Pack will have a sellout crowd at home on senior night playing their arch-rival. They are the superior team catching a downtrodden UNLV team. Expect a double-digit Wolf Pack victory.

I'm very surprised Kansas City opened as a 'dog to Nebraska Omaha in this Summit League Tournament matchup.

UMKC is 11-20. Nebraska Omaha is 8-22. The Mavericks have lost 10 of their last 11 games. UMKC beat them in both meetings during the regular season, 64-61, on Jan. 26 and 75-59 on the road Dec. 31.

The Kangaroos give up nearly nine points fewer per game than Nebraska Omaha. They also are a much stronger rebounding team than the Mavericks.

UMKC has the best player on the court, too, in Rayquawndis Mitchell.

Mercer has become much improved defensively. So this is a good matchup for the Bears because The Citadel is very bad offensively and not good either on defense giving up nearly 75 points a game.

The teams just met on Feb. 25. Mercer held the Bulldogs to 50 points in a 22-point victory. Mercer also defeated The Citadel in the first meeting, 74-65, on the road.

It's clear who the better team is here.

Cal Irvine is 36 teams above UC Riverside in the KenPom rankings. I agree with that assessment. I have the Anteaters as the better team, too. They destroyed the Highlanders, 83-64, as 6 1/2-point home favorites on Feb. 11. 

Cal Irvine has the second-best offense in the Big West and surrenders fewer points per game than UC Riverside. 

The Anteaters also have dominated the Highlanders winning and covering during the past five meetings. They've also gone 7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS the last eight times when playing at UC Riverside. 

These two teams met twice during the regulation season. There were 127 and 122 points scored during those two games.

Now Illinois-Chicago and Missouri State are meeting again with the stakes much higher - the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament. So the defensive intensity is going to be even greater.

The game is being played at a neutral site, Enterprise Arena in St. Louis. This venue is set up for hockey not basketball. Historically there have been a lot of Unders because of the tough shooting background.

Illinois Chicago ranks 289th in scoring, 315th in field goal percentage and 336th in free throw percentage. Missouri State has the 32nd best defense in the country holding foes to 63.7 points a game.

The Bears, though, average only 65.8 points per game and are even worse from the foul line than Illinois-Chicago. No Missouri Valley team plays at a slower tempo either than Missouri State.

Rider is a much better team than St. Peter's. Rider is 12-6 in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference while St. Peter's is 6-12 in league.

It's not just the conference records either. The Broncos buried the Peacocks, 82-61, at home on Feb. 3.

Both teams are tough defensively. But St. Peter's can't score. The Peacocks average 61.3 points a game, which ranks 354th. They also are 362nd in field goal percentage and 358th in 3-point shooting percentage in addition to being well below average in free throw shooting.

I'm not putting any stock in St. Peter's being home either. The Peacocks are 1-4 ATS in their last five home contests while Rider has covered its last five away games.

If you're into bad Atlantic 10 Conference games then this is a good matchup. I'm involved because I don't believe St. Joe's should be a home 'dog to Richmond.

The Spiders could have the worst offense in the A-10. They also are terrible on the road failing to cover in 10 of their last 11 away games. Overall, Richmond is 2-10 ATS in its past dozen games. 

St. Joe's, by contrast, is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 home games. The Hawks outscore the Spiders and do a good job of not turning the ball over. They often are undervalued, like this time, going 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games. 

The Big South Conference Tournament isn't exactly a big deal. But good spots can be found. This is one of them as High Point is playing much better than Charleston Southern and is the superior team so the price certainly is right to back the Panthers.

High Point brings momentum into the tournament winning four of its last five games while going 5-0 ATS.

That's not the case for Charleston Southern. The Buccaneers are 2-11 SU, 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games.

Charleston Southern is the worst defensive team in the Big South. How bad defensively are the Buccaneers? They rank 304th in scoring defense nationally, 328th in defensive field goal percentage and 330th in 3-point defense.

The Panthers are 9-2 ATS the past 11 times when facing a below .400 opponent, which the 9-20 Buccaneers are. High Point beat Charleston Southern, 81-73, at home when the teams last played on Feb. 6.

This line is out of whack. Both teams are 20-9 and battling for third place in the Mid-American Conference. Ball State State was a three-point home favorite against Akron on Jan. 6 and won, 70-63.

Now look at the line.

This should be a very close game. It wouldn't surprise me to see the Cardinals win again. They are in better current form although they got a jolt in their last game losing as road chalk to Eastern Michigan this past Saturday. Before that defeat, though, Ball State had won seven of its past eight games.

The Cardinals should be highly-focused following that wake-up call. They are 16-5 ATS (76 percent) the past 21 times following a loss. Ball State also has covered four of the last five times against opponents with a winning percentage above .600.

Akron, by contrast, is 1-7 ATS the past eight times when it has met a foe with a winning percentage above .600. The Zips' 14-1 home record looks impressive, but they have a losing ATS mark on the season and are 3-3 during their last six games.

The teams have similar statistics. Ball State, however, ranks 43rd nationally in 3-point percentage. That's nearly 100 teams better than Akron in that key category.

This is an opening round game of the Atlantic Sun Conference Tournament. Both teams are each 17-14. But sources tell me Queens is the right side. Early money has come on Queens, too. Queens defeated Florida Gulf Coast, 84-82, when the teams met late last month. Queens outscored Florida Gulf Coast by seven points in the second half. 

Even given home-court advantage, I don't think Stanford should even be favored against Washington let alone laying mid-sized points like this.

So I'm on the Huskies. Washington is 16-13 and 8-10 in the Pac-12. Stanford is 11-17 and 5-12 in the Pac 12.

Washington is playing much better than the Cardinal, too. The Huskies have won three in a row. They are 6-0 ATS in their last six games. Stanford has lost five of its last six games, including the past three.

The teams met on Jan. 12 in Seattle and the Huskies easily won, 86-69. The Cardinal could connect on just nine of 29 3-point attempts. It wasn't a fluke. The Huskies rate seventh in the country in 3-point defense while Stanford is 306th in 3-point defense.

I find this line to be way off. Utah Valley is the best team in the Western Athletic Conference at 12-3. Abilene Christian, by contrast, is 7-9 in league.

The Wolverines shouldn't lack motivation after getting upset on the road by Tarleton State in their last game. Utah Valley had won five in a row until that defeat. The Wolverines are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 away games.

The 21-7 Wolverines are a better rebounding team than Abilene Christian and much better in defensive field goal percentage. Utah Valley ranks fifth in the country in defensive field goal percentage. Abilene Christian ranks 353rd.

The Wildcats are 4-8 in their last 12 games.

It's not too much to ask of Utah Valley just to win the game straight-up so I'm backing the Wolverines on the money line.

Just three games ago, Nevada handled Fresno State winning, 77-66, as a nine-point home favorite. Fresno State is playing better and is home. But the point spread is still too short.

Fresno State only averages 61.7 points. That's 351st. Nevada should reach 70 points just like it did two weeks ago against the Bulldogs. Fresno State is 1-6 when giving up 70-plus points.

The Bulldogs' key is their pressure defense. They rank second in the Mountain West Conference in creating takeaways. Nevada, however, ranks 27th in the nation in fewest turnover percentage. They turned the ball over just 10 times in the first meeting against the Bulldogs.

After two close calls in their last two games, look for Virginia to cover this point spread margin with a double-digit victory.

Boston College is in a letdown spot after an upset road win against Florida State.

The Cavaliers have dominated this series winning 10 of the last 11 times, including 76-57 on Jan. 28.

This is the most points Iowa State has gotten all season. T.J. Otzelberger could be the best coach in the country. So I'm going to accept this many points.

Texas is a top-25 offense. Iowa State is a top 15-defense. I trust Otzelberger and the Cyclones' defense to keep this close.

Texas was fortunate to get past Oklahoma, 85-83 in overtime, this past Saturday as a 10 1/2-point home favorite. The Longhorns are 7-21 (25 percent) ATS the last 28 times following a victory.

Iowa State handled the Longhorns at home. The Cyclones beat them, 78-67, on Jan. 17. They can hang here.

I'm expecting a much higher-scoring game than the first meeting, which Marquette won, 69-58, back on Dec. 16. Ryan Kalkbrenner, Creighton's leading scorer, missed that game. The total on that matchup was 153 1/2.

Early money on this total has been to the Under, knocking it down to where I see value going Over.

Marquette is the 19th-highest scoring team in the nation averaging 80.7 points. The Golden Eagles rank fifth in the country in field goal percentage.

Creighton averages 76.3 points a game, which ranks in the top 70.

Since upsetting Tennessee, Missouri has lost and failed to cover its last two games. Mississippi State is just as good - if not better - than the Tigers. So I'll take the Bulldogs getting this many points.

The Bulldogs have come on after a slow SEC start to go 6-1 SU and ATS in their last seven league games, including posting road victories against South Carolina, Arkansas and Mississippi during their last three SEC away games. The Bulldogs are 5-0 ATS in their past five road contests.

The teams met on Feb. 4 and Mississippi State held Missouri to a season-low in points in a 63-52 home victory. Take away their victory against Tennessee and the Tigers would be 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games.

There is one team in the Big Ten Conference who is an autofade - Minnesota. The Gophers are 1-13 in the league. They haven't been competitively on the road lately.

The Gophers lost by 35 points to Rutgers and by 20 points to Northwestern in their last two away games. Minnesota is 4-9-1 ATS in their past 14 road contests. 

I see this as a kill spot for the host Illini. Minnesota has lost nine in a row. It's also a difficult situational spot for the Gophers as because of previous postponements this will be just their third game in 16 days. 

Delaware State defeated South Carolina State, 88-85, in overtime on the road in the first meeting on Jan. 23. Now the Bulldogs have to travel to Dover to play the Hornets.

I like Delaware State's chances at this number considering South Carolina State has lost 11 consecutive road games. The Bulldogs have lost their past three away contests by an average of 18.6 points.

The Hornets are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games. They give up nine fewer points per game than South Carolina State.

I find this line short so I'm backing Howard, which has won nine in a row. The Bison have covered all but one of these games during their win streak.

Morgan State is 11-25 ATS in its last 36 home games. The Bears have failed to cover in five of their last six games.

This has been a road team series with the visitor cashing seven of the last eight times.

Boise State is very tough at home. UNLV is a sliding team with a bad recent history against the Broncos.

So I find this a simple choice: Lay the points with Boise State.

The 20-6 Broncos have won their last 11 home games with all but one of those victories coming by nine or more points. They are 10-3 in the Mountain West Conference.

UNLV is 16-10 with a 5-9 Mountain West record. The Rebels have lost three of their past four games, including home losses to San Jose State and Fresno State as mid-sized favorites. They are 5-9 SU, 6-8 ATS in their last 14 games.

Boise State is 5-1 in its last six games. The Broncos have held opponents to fewer than 60 points a game when playing at home, while averaging more than 74 points shooting 49 percent from the floor and 77 percent from the foul line.

The Broncos have dominated the Rebels winning the past six meetings. This includes an 84-66 road win on Jan. 11.

Going to the added board for this one. 

Both teams are playing well. But I see Penn having the greater urgency being in revenge mode and trailing Yale by one game in the Ivy League standing.

The Quakers have won their last five games. They are 4-1-1 ATS during their past six games and have the best player on the court, Jordan Dingle. He leads the Ivy League in scoring by a wide margin at 24 points per game.

Penn has revenge for a 70-63 loss to Yale earlier this season. I make the game pick, so getting this many points is a bonus and puts me in play.

Maybe it's because Southeast Missouri State has lost three in a row. But I find this line to be well short of my power rankings for these two teams.

The Redhawks are at least a dozen points better than Eastern Illinois given home-court advantage. SE Missouri State has won the last five in the series, including defeating the Panthers, 79-68, on the road Jan. 28.

SE Missouri State is in a five-way tie for second place in the Ohio Valley Conference at 8-6. Eastern Illinois is 9-18 overall and 5-9 in the OVC.

The Redhawks lead the conference in scoring, field goal percentage and have the best turnover margin. They have the best player on the court in Phillip Russell, who leads the Ohio Valley Conference in scoring at 19 points per game while also dishing off 5.2 assists per game.

I don't see Eastern Illinois staying with SE Missouri State. The Panthers average fewer than 70 points per game. They rank last in the OVC in free throw percentage, rebounding margin and 3-pointers made.

I am getting behind New Mexico. The Lobos are in stop-the-pain mode having dropped three in a row. This is their time to get right hosting 7-17 Wyoming, the worst team in the Mountain West Conference.

Wyoming has lost and failed to cover in its last three games suffering double-digit defeats to San Jose State, UNLV and Boise State during this span. The Cowboys are 1-5 ATS in their past six road games. New Mexico is 5-1 ATS the last six times hosting opponents with a road percentage of less than .400.

The Cowboys rank 249th in scoring defense and 311th in defensive field goal percentage. That's bad news going against the high-scoring Lobos. New Mexico averages 81.6 points a game, which ranks 16th in the nation. The Lobos also are 11th in the country in field goal percentage.

Illinois is stepping up, winning eight of its last 10 games. But Penn State is tough at home and this is a circle-the-wagons game for the Nittany Lions.

Penn State has dropped four in a row. The latest being a loss - but a cover - in a road loss to Maryland this past Saturday. The Nittany Lions have won seven of their last eight home games. During this span, the Nittany Lions have defeated Michigan, Indiana and Iowa. Their lone home defeat during this time frame was to Wisconsin in overtime.

The Nittany Lions are 11-4 ATS following a loss.

Penn State should play the Illini with confidence. The Nittany Lions won the first matchup, winning by 15 points on the road in mid-December.

Given how bad SMU is on the road, I find this line to be short. Wichita State is the superior team and home. That's huge because SMU is 1-8 SU, 1-7-1 ATS away from home this season.

The Mustangs average fewer than 70 points per game. They rank among the bottom 50 teams in field goal percentage, free throw percentage and 3-point shooting.

Wichita State is 14th in the nation in defensive field goal percentage.

The Shockers have defeated the Mustangs six consecutive times, including 73-65 on the road last month.

Much respect to Northwestern for its 17-7 season. But I don't see the Wildcats keeping this one close against top-ranked 23-2 Purdue. 
The Boilermakers haven't lost to Northwestern in nine years, winning the past 11 games. 

Purdue has too much balance and depth for the Wildcats. Led by 7-foot-4 center Zach Edey, the Boilermakers are serious contenders to win the national championship. Northwestern is nowhere near that level. 

Beating disappointing Wisconsin and Ohio State, which has lost 10 of its last 11 games, during the past week on the road does not elevate the Wildcats into elite atmosphere. 

Hawaii has the better record. Hawaii is the better team. The key question is can the Rainbow Warriors cover this number?

I say they can. Home-court is huge here. Hawaii is 15-3 at home. Cal State-Fullerton is 3-10 on the road. The Rainbow Warriors have won their home games by an average of nearly eight points per game. This has been a home team series with the host covering five of the past six times.

Cal-State Fullerton doesn't have enough scoring to stay within this number. Hawaii ranks 19th in the country defensively allowing 62 points a game. The Titans average fewer than 69 points per game.

The Rainbow Warriors also have revenge motivation. The Titans beat them, 79-72 in overtime, when they hosted them on Jan. 7. Hawaii plays much better at home.

Nevada is extremely tough at home. I know first hand having covered games at Lawlor Events Center on the Reno campus during my sportswriting days. I don't see Fresno State staying within double-digits on the road against the Wolf Pack.

The Wolf Pack average nearly 79 points at home, outscoring  opponents by an average of 14 points. They are 11-2-1 ATS in their last 14 games at Lawlor. 

Fresno State doesn't have the scoring to keep up. The Bulldogs average just 62 points a game, which ranks 353rd in the country. They are terrible at making 3-pointers and bad at defending against 3-pointers. 

The Bulldogs are 3-10 on the road. They have failed to cover in nine of their past 13 away contests. I'm not fooled by Fresno State's two game win streak, upsetting UNLV and defeating San Jose State. During their previous three games before those wins, the Bulldogs lost to Wyoming on the road, fell to Utah State at home and lost to Boise State on the road. They averaged just 56 points during those three matchups. 

Nevada has won and covered three in a row. In their last four home games, the Wolf Pack beat Utah State by 15 points, defeated New Mexico by three in overtime, knocked off San Diego State by nine and rolled past Air Force by 20 despite being in a letdown spot. Utah State, New Mexico and San Diego State are far superior to Fresno State. 

The Wolf Pack are 20-8 ATS the past 28 times at home when going against a foe with a losing road record. 

No surprise that Memphis ranks 25th in scoring averaging 80.2 points. The Tigers have Kendric Davis, play fast and feature a deep bench. They are averaging 86 points in regulation during their past three games.

It's South Florida who has caught the oddsmaker off guard with its up-tempo style. The Bulls don't play slow anymore. It's not a fluke that the Over has cashed in 17 of their last 21 games. The Over also has cashed in nine of South Florida's past 12 home games.

There is a blueprint for this matchup. It came on Dec. 29 in Memphis when the Tigers hosted South Florida. There were 179 points scored in Memphis' 93-86 victory. Neither team could stop the other especially on the defensive glass.

The Bulls aren't going to back down from Memphis especially in revenge mode and playing at home. The Tigers should be pumped for a big scoring performance, too, after having their five-game win streak snapped by underdog Tulane at home this past Saturday in an overtime loss.

Don't count Wisconsin out. The Badgers, who have made the NCAA Tournament 22 of the past 23 seasons, have been one of the more disappointing teams but are showing life now. The buy sign is on them. They are healthy and off a confidence-building, 65-60, road win at Ohio State this past Thursday.

Wisconsin has defeated Northwestern 17 of the past 20 times at Kohl Center. The Wildcats have averaged just 51.8 points during those games.

This is a huge revenge game, too, for the Badgers. Northwestern defeated Wisconsin, 66-63, at home on Jan. 23. That snapped a seven-game Wisconsin win streak versus the Wildcats.

You have to go back to 2018 to find the last time Northwestern defeated Wisconsin in Madison. The Wildcats last swept a season series against the Badgers in 1996.

The Wildcats are a terrible shooting team ranking 341st in field goal shooting and their defense is showing slippage giving up an average of 77 points in their last two games against Michigan and Iowa.

Northwestern also is 1-4 ATS the past five times facing an above .500 opponent.

Both teams are struggling offensively as the rugged Big Ten season hits the first weekend of February.

Ohio State has failed to break the 60-point barrier in three of its last five games. The Buckeyes are averaging 63.3 points in their last three games.

Michigan is averaging 63.4 points during its last five games.

The Wolverines have held three of their last five foes to 64 or fewer points. Ohio State defends the 3-point shot well.

So I see defense carrying the day in this one.

Michigan State is strong defensively. No surprise there. Rutgers is super strong defensively ranking in the top-six nationally in scoring defense and defensive field goal percentage.

The combination of outstanding defenses and this intense matchup being played at Madison Square Garden in New York should produce a very low-scoring game - and an Under. College teams not used to playing at Madison Square Garden often have trouble scoring there because of the large arena and shooting background. It is a tough, foreign court in a city full of distractions.

Michigan State is averaging only 62 points during its last two games.

The teams met on Jan. 19 at Michigan State. The Spartans won, 70-57. That's a total of 127 points. Note there were nine unanswered garbage points scored during the final minute that inflated that final score.

San Diego State couldn't beat Boise State last season and the Aztecs can't cover this inflated number against the Broncos this season.

Boise State held San Diego State to a puny 48.6 points a game in going 3-0 versus the Aztecs last season. Boise is just as strong this season while I have doubts about the Aztecs following their nine-point loss to Nevada this past Tuesday.

The Broncos and Aztecs are tied for first in the Mountain West Conference. Points should be at a premium in this matchup so I'll gladly take this many.

Boise State is playing extremely well going 8-2 in its last 10 games. Its only two losses during this span occurred on the road to New Mexico in overtime by two points and to Nevada on the road by two points.

The Broncos are proven road warriors going 19-6-1 in their last 26 away matchups for 76 percent. They've proven themselves on the road against top competition, too, going 21-8-1 ATS versus opponents with a home winning percentage greater than .600. San Diego State is 4-9-1 ATS in its last 14 home games.

Look, Gonzaga just isn't that dominant this season. Yet the oddsmaker continues to inflate the Bulldogs. This game is another example.

Much is made of Gonzaga having its 75-game home winning streak ended on Jan. 19 by Loyola Marymount. Less publicized is the Bulldogs being 5-14-3 ATS during their past 22 home games.

Santa Clara is 16-7 and deserving of being a shorter underdog than this point spread. The Broncos nearly upset Gonzaga in the first meeting on Jan. 7, losing 81-76, covering as an 8-point home 'dog. Santa Clara is 7-1 ATS the past eight times when playing an above .500 team.

Queens is the 21st-highest scoring team in the nation averaging 80.9 points. That's six points more per game than what Lipscomb averages. 

Queens has won two in a row, while scoring at least 81 points in three of its last four games.

Lipscomb has lost and failed to cover its past two games. 

Power rating-wise, I have Queens as the better team. So getting this many points makes this a worthy investment. 

I'm surprised William & Mary didn't open a mid-range favorite. I rate the Tribe much better than Hampton.

William & Mary has a superior record - 9-14 overall, 4-6 in the Colonial Athletic Association - compared to the Pirates' 5-17 mark and 2-8 CAA record.

The Tribe also proved that by defeating the Pirates, 81-65, as an 8-point home favorite on Jan. 11.

William & Mary is statistically better than Hampton, too, on both sides of the ball. The Pirates rank last in the CAA in shooting percentage and second-to-last in defensive field goal percentage. They also rate last in the league in rebounding margin. But where William & Mary holds a significant edge is 3-point shooting. The Tribe is 38th in the country in 3-point accuracy while Hampton is 344th in 3-pt defense.

The major concern about the Tribe is their lack of road victories. Some of this concern can be eased by the Tribe upsetting UNC Wilmington as a 12-point road 'dog on Jan. 14. Hampton hasn't been a good home team either going 1-5 ATS in its last six home contests.

I'm going to ride Lehigh's momentum and revenge in this matchup against Army.

The Mountain Hawks have won eight in a row. They are 8-2 at home. Army has lost three of its last four games.

Lehigh has a much stronger defense than Army. The Mountain Hawks also have played the tougher schedule.

Army hosted Lehigh on Dec. 30 and won 80-78. Army shot better than 54 percent from the floor and 52 percent from 3-point range yet merely won by two points at home.

The Panthers are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 road contests. They are 5-2 in road games this season with four of those wins coming versus ACC foes.

Pittsburgh is off a 71-68 home win against ranked Miami this past Saturday. North Carolina hasn't played in more than a week. The rest is good for the Tar Heels, but it could come with some rust. The Tar Heels are 2-5 ATS the past seven times when meeting above .500 opponents.

The Panthers beat North Carolina, 76-74, when the teams met on Dec. 30. Jamarius Burton had a monster game with 31 points.

Kudos to San Diego State on being ranked 22nd in the latest AP Top 25 poll. The Aztecs hold the top spot in the Mountain West Conference. But I don't see them beating Nevada in Reno.

The Wolf Pack are 10-0 at home. They are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 home games.

San Diego State defeated Nevada, 74-65, at home three weeks ago. The Aztecs got the Wolf Pack to play their game. That won't be the case in Reno. The Wolf Pack should also shoot much better. They shot under 40 percent from the field in that first meeting missing 20 of 25 3-point shots.

Anytime the better team is getting points, I'm seriously interested. That's the case here with Northern Illinois. The Huskies are 8-13, 4-4 in the Mid-American Conference. Western Michigan is 6-15, 2-6 in the MAC.

Northern Illinois is 3-1 in its last four games, with all three victories during this span coming as an underdog. This includes an impressive 10-point victory against 17-4 Kent State a week ago.

Western Michigan, by contrast, has lost four in a row. The Broncos also played Kent State and lost by eight points to the Golden Flashes.

Numerous trends all point to the Huskies as the right side. Northern Illinois has covered 15 of its last 22 road games and is 9-2 ATS the past 11 times versus sub .500 opponents.

Western Michigan is 3-9 ATS the last dozen times meeting a foe with a winning percentage below .400.

The underdog is 8-1 ATS the past nine times these teams have met.

This may seem like a lot of points to lay, but I find the gap between these two Summit League teams much wider than the point spread. So I'm on Oral Roberts.

The Eagles have the offense to easily blow out South Dakota, which is weak defensively. Oral Roberts averages 84.5 points. That's fifth-best in the country.

South Dakota ranks 264th defensively allowing 72.4 points per game. The Coyotes have even a worse statistical ranking in defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense. It wouldn't surprise me to see the Eagles reach triple-digits in this home game against the 10-12 Coyotes, who are 2-7 on the road.

Oral Roberts, which has won 17 of its last 18 games, is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 home games when facing a foe with a road winning percentage of less than .400. South Dakota has failed to cover in eight of its past 11 away games.

I don't see the Eagles keeping up with Oral Roberts. They've been held under 65 points in four of their last seven games despite playing in the Summit League, which is a high-scoring conference.

Slow tempo. Bad offenses. That adds up to an Under in this matchup despite the low total the oddsmaker has set.

Cal State-Fullerton ranks third in the Big West Conference in defensive efficiency. The Titans just held Cal-Irvine to 15 points under its season average in a 62-61 win two days ago. Cal Poly is not Cal-Irvine. The Mustangs average 61.9 points, which is 354th in the country. The Under is 46-21 in their last 67 games, including 6-1 during their past seven home games.

Fullerton has gone Under in 11 of its last 16 games. The Titans are 306th in shooting percentage. Cal Poly is a very strong defensive rebounding team and holds opponents to fewer than 66 points a game.

This is a circle-the-wagons game for Wisconsin, which is 1-5 in its last six games.

The Badgers, though, are home - where they historically play much better - have their leading scorer Tyler Wahl back and are in revenge mode from a 79-69 loss suffered to Illinois three weeks ago.

The Badgers should get a boost, too, with starting guard Max Klesmit expected to play.

Samford could still be suffering the after effects from a tough 91-84 overtime road loss to Furman this past Wednesday night in its biggest game of the season.

Wofford, on the other hand, is off a confidence-building underdog road victory against Tennessee-Chattanooga this past Wednesday that halted a two-game losing streak.

The Terriers have been strong in an underdog role this season covering six of eight.

New Mexico has scored 76 or more points in 10 of its last 11 games. The Lobos are the 14th-highest scoring team in the nation. They should have no problem getting their points against Air Force, which is slipping defensively. 

The Falcons have surrendered at least 70 points in seven of their last eight games. They just gave up 82 points to San Jose State this past Tuesday. That was 14 points above San Jose State's season scoring average. 

Air Force should get its share of points, too. New Mexico is last in the Mountain West Conference in two-point defense. The Over has cashed in eight of the Lobos' last 11 home games. 

I want Kent State going for me at home and off a stunning upset road loss to Northern Illinois this past Tuesday.

The Golden Flashes had won 10 in a row until losing, 86-76, to the Huskies as a 13-point favorite.

That was Kent State's first MAC loss in seven games. The Golden Flashes are 16-4 overall and unbeaten in nine home games.

Buffalo is a mediocre 10-10 with a 2-6 road record. Kent State is 8-1-1 ATS the past 10 times hosting foes with losing road records.

San Diego is 9-12, including 2-5 in the West Coast Conference. But that's still better than Pepperdine, which is 7-14 and 0-7 in the WCC.

The Toreros are a horrendous defensive team. They can score, though. ranking 48th in scoring. They also are 23rd in free throw accuracy. Pepperdine shot 56 percent from the floor against San Diego when the teams met two weeks ago in San Diego. The Toreros still won, 92-89, covering as 2 1/2-point favorites. I see this point spread being too lopsided in favor of Pepperdine.

San Diego should have plenty of energy. The Toreros last played a week ago. They lost at Portland, 88-83, in that game. Pepperdine just played Portland, too, on the road this past Saturday. The Waves lost, 91-76, to Portland. Pepperdine has failed to cover now in seven of its last eight games.

I'm not going to make out that 7-13 SMU is a good team. The Mustangs aren't. But they have been playing solid defense holding their last three opponents to an average of 63 points in regulation.

Memphis is not a good defensive team and the Tigers don't cover point spreads - 1-8 ATS in their last nine games.

The Tigers have failed to cover the last seven times they've played a sub .500 opponent. 

South Carolina has proven to be tough on the road. Just ask Kentucky. The Gamecocks upset the Wildcats, 71-68, at Rupp Arena on Jan. 10. South Carolina hasn't won since losing three in a row - all at home.

So going back on the road may be a good thing for the Gamecocks. They've covered their past four road games.

Florida has been playing well. However, the Gators aren't likely to have starting 6-foot-9 forward Alex Fudge, their second-leading rebounder. That would hurt their size advantage forcing them to employ four guards.

The Gators are off a narrow victory against Mississippi State. They are 5-14 ATS following a victory.

Samford is the top team in the Southern Conference at 8-0. Furman is 6-2 in the league. Samford has won eight in a row. This should be a very close game so I find this point spread to be out of whack in this mid-range.

Samford is the superior defensive team. The Bulldogs also have back guard Ques Glover, their leading scorer. He returned to action this past Saturday after being out since Nov. 30. Glover really bolsters Samford's rotation. I don't believe the oddsmaker took that into enough consideration in making this line.

Furman has failed to cover six of the last eight times it has met an above .500 opponent.

This has been a road team series, too, with the visitor covering eight of the last 11 times.

Certain high profile schools get too much respect from the linesmaker. North Carolina falls into that group.

Yes, the Tar Heels are 14-6. However, they are 7-12-1 (37 percent) ATS.

Syracuse is coming on winning and covering five of its last seven games. The Orange are 10-3 SU, 9-4 ATS during their past 13 games. Only one of those losses was by more than seven points. The Orange are averaging 79.5 points in their last four games. They've scored at least 78 points in 10 of their past 12 games.

The Orange are at their point spread-best against strong competition covering five of the last six times when taking on an opponent with a winning percentage above .600.

North Carolina has been at its worst on the road. Not counting neutral site games, the Tar Heels are 1-4 SU and ATS away from home. Their only road victory came against 2-17 Louisville. North Carolina is 1-6-1 ATS in its past eight road contests versus foes with a winning home mark.

I want Davidson in circle-the-wagon mode after four straight losses. The Wildcats covered in their last two games losing to George Mason by two points on the road and to Dayton on the road by seven points. The Wildcats last played a week ago. They should be pointing to this matchup. 

I'm not a fan of LaSalle. The Explorers rank 330th in field goal percentage and aren't good on the defensive end either. The Wildcats are the better free throw shooting team, too. 

Nothing like watching the two worst teams in the Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference to induce a deep sleep.

How can 3-17 South Carolina State be a mid-range favorite? The answer is being at home and playing Delaware State. The Hornets are in the discussion for worst Division I team in college basketball at 1-16. They've lost 15 in a row.

Delaware State is horrible both offensively, averaging 61.6 points, and defensively giving up 75.4 points.

Yes, this is bad on bad. But South Carolina State is in better current form averaging 81.2 points in its last five games. Delaware State is averaging 57 points during its last seven games. The Hornets are 6-3 ATS in their past nine games. Delaware State has failed to cover in its last eight games.