12-09-24 |
Minnesota v. Indiana UNDER 140.5 |
Top |
67-82 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 23 m |
Show
|
This is Indiana's opening Big Ten Conference game. I'm expecting a lot of intensity from the Hooisers. Indiana coach Mike Woodson wasn't pleased with the lack of energy in his team's last game, a 76-57 home win against Miami of Ohio this past Friday.
Minnesota is one of the worst shooting teams in the nation. The Gophers rank 342nd in scoring and 351st in free throw percentage. They also are well below par in offensive rebounding. Because of their lack of scoring, the Gophers play at a slow tempo ranking 354th in total possessions per game.
Indiana is holding opponents to 40 percent shooting from the floor.
Minnesota's only chance is to slow tempo, relying on a defense that ranks 17th in the nation giving up 62 points a game.
So I envision a lower-scoring game than what the oddsmaker does.
|
12-05-24 |
Purdue v. Penn State -115 |
|
70-81 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 48 m |
Show
|
This is a combination of Purdue being down from last season and Penn State looking highly improved after last season's 16-17 record in Mike Rhoades' first season.
The Nittany Lions are 7-1. All of their victories have been by double-digits. Their one loss was to Clemson on a neutral court. Penn State ranks fourth in scoring in the nation and third in field goal percentage.
Purdue has played one true road game this season - and lost, 76-58, to Marquette.
Penn State has much to prove in this home game. I look for the Nittany Lions to get the job done with a victory.
|
12-04-24 |
Ohio State v. Maryland -5.5 |
Top |
59-83 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 10 m |
Show
|
Maryland is 7-1 with its lone loss coming to 15th-ranked Marquette by four points. The Terrapins are better than Ohio State and playing at home. That combination should mean a point spread cover here.
Ohio State needs to shake off a 91-90 home loss to underdog Pittsburgh this past Friday. The Panthers pulled the upset on a 3-pointer at the buzzer. Ohio State is a bad free throw shooting team and it bit them against Pittsburgh.
Maryland is a much better free throw shooting team than the Buckeyes and the Terrapins commit four fewer fouls per game.
The Terrapins have revenge, too, for a 79-75 double overtime road loss to Ohio State last February.
|
12-03-24 |
Cincinnati -3.5 v. Villanova |
|
60-68 |
Loss |
-110 |
13 h 59 m |
Show
|
I'm going to ride the Bearcats, who are 6-0 to start the season. Cincinnati's competition hasn't been great, but I rate the Bearcats much better than Villanova.
The Wildcats haven't played great opponents either, but are just 4-4 with losses to Columbia, St. Joe's, Virginia and Maryland.
Villanova is vulnerable from 3-point range ranking 311th in 3-point defense. Cincinnati is the most accurate shooting team in the nation hitting 53.6 percent from the floor. The Bearcats also rank No. 10th in 3-point shooting at 41.5 percent.
Cincinnati is very strong defensively, too, ranking third in scoring defense and defensive field goal percentage.
|
11-26-24 |
Loyola Marymount v. Belmont -120 |
Top |
77-63 |
Loss |
-120 |
9 h 21 m |
Show
|
Loyola Marymount and Belmont are meeting tonight in Mexico as part of the Cancun Challenge.
I trust Belmont's accurate shooting and am banking on Loyola Marymount's struggles against Division I opponents.
Belmont ranks 23rd in the country in field goal accuracy. The Bruins have won and covered their past three games.
The Lions are 0-3 against Division I foes this season. They have lost each of their past five non-conference games going back to last season. Loyola Marymount is coming off a 77-73 home loss to North Dakota as an 11-point favorite.
The Lions rank 337th in 3-point defense.
|
11-21-24 |
Vanderbilt v. Nevada -3.5 |
Top |
73-71 |
Loss |
-110 |
17 h 55 m |
Show
|
This is a neutral site matchup being played in Charleston, S.C. as part of the Charleston Classic. Power rating-wise, I have Nevada as the much superior team. So I'm backing the Wolf Pack.
Nevada has a huge size advantage, has played the stronger schedule and is a much better defensive team than Vanderbilt.
The Commodores are averaging 91.5 points, but have played only one semi-decent team and that was California. Their three other victories came against cupcakes. The Commodores have played one of the 15 easiest schedules in the country.
Vanderbilt is not highly thought of despite its 4-0 record. The Commodores were picked to finish last in the 16-team SEC in the league's preseason poll.
Nevada is a huge step-up for Vanderbilt. The Wolf Pack are well-balanced and more battle-tested. I expect them to have no problem covering this small number.
|
11-20-24 |
Idaho State +24.5 v. UCLA |
Top |
70-84 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 28 m |
Show
|
UCLA has rolled past three cupcakes at home. The one time this season the Bruins stepped up in class they lost to New Mexico, 72-64, as a short favorite at neutral site Henderson, Nev.
The Bruins are going to get better. But right now they are laying too many points against spunky Idaho State, which has been undervalued by the oddsmaker going 4-0 ATS.
UCLA fans are not giving the Bruins much home support. UCLA is averaging 4,694 fans, which ranks 17th out of the 18 Big Ten Conference teams in home attendance. Bruins fans don't get excited about bad matchups.
Idaho State has played Arizona State and USC close, easily covering both road games. The Bengals were 17 1/2-point road 'dogs to Arizona State and lost, 55-48, and were plus 24 at USC losing, 75-69, to the Trojans.
The Bengals lost as a road underdog to Fullerton and upset San Diego as a four-point road 'dog, 78-66. Idaho State is giving up just 64.2 points per game and is a solid rebounding team.
Will the Bengals beat UCLA? No. But they can keep this game closer than this lopsided point spread.
|
11-16-24 |
Santa Clara v. Nevada -7.5 |
|
59-85 |
Win
|
100 |
27 h 6 m |
Show
|
Look for a double-digit victory from Nevada as Santa Clara can't make 3-pointers, nor defend well against them.
The Broncos rank 328th in scoring defense, 308th in defensive field goal percentage and 350th in 3-point defense. Santa Clara just lost straight-up as a 15 1/2-point home favorite against North Dakota State.
Nevada has won and covered each of its first three games, all of which were played at home. The Wolf Pack held Weber State to 58 points and Washington to 53 points in their last two games.
|
11-12-24 |
Tarleton State +19 v. Florida State |
|
52-72 |
Loss |
-110 |
9 h 38 m |
Show
|
Florida State has other things on its mind than worrying about this outclassed foe. The Seminoles meet their in-state rival Florida in three days. That's the game they care about not this one. Tarleton State, though, can hang in based on its ball pressure. The Texans ranked in the top 40 in forcing turnovers per possession last season. They rated in the top 40 in that category, too, two seasons ago.
|
11-04-24 |
New Hampshire v. Massachusetts -16 |
Top |
74-103 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 29 m |
Show
|
Frank Martin is one of the better college basketball coaches. Martin proved that again leading UMass to a 20-11 record last season. The Minutemen should be even better this season upgrading their frontcourt and returning a steady backcourt. UMass has too much defense for New Hampshire to handle. Expect a blowout with the Minutemen covering this large point spread. "Defensively, we're ahead of the game right now," Martin was quoted as saying. "It's the first time since I've been here where defensively we're ahead of the game." New Hampshire was 7-10 in away games last season. The Wildcats' major weakness is inconsistent scoring. They are at their worst against above average defenses, something they don't find that much playing in the America East Conference. UMass went 13-3 at home last season. The Minutemen return point guard Rahsool Diggins and they brought in height and athleticism to their forecourt with transfers Malek Abdelgowad (Murray State), Shahid Muhammad (Seton Hall) and Akil Watson. All three of those players are 6-foot-9 or taller.
|
04-08-24 |
Purdue v. Connecticut UNDER 145.5 |
Top |
60-75 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 55 m |
Show
|
Come tournament time strong defenses have turned into great defenses. That's the case with Purdue and Connecticut.
The Boilermakers have allowed an average of only 61.2 points in regulation during their seven games, spanning the Big Ten Tournament and NCAA Tournament.
Connecticut has gone Under in nine of its last 10 games, including the past six. The Huskies have held seven of their last nine foes to 60 points or fewer.
So it's no surprise early money has come on the Under. The Under is helped, too, by Connecticut's slow pace and the game being played at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Ariz., which is known for being a tough venue for shooters.
Zach Edey has been dominant scoring inside for Purdue. But the 7-foot-4 Edey will face his biggest challenge going against 7-2 Donovan Clingan. Both are excellent defenders. Clingan ranked eighth in the nation in blocked shots per game.
|
03-30-24 |
Illinois v. Connecticut OVER 154.5 |
Top |
52-77 |
Loss |
-108 |
32 h 7 m |
Show
|
How good is Illinois' offense? The Illini just put up 72 points on Iowa State's fifth-ranked defense despite going just 15-of-29 from the foul line for 52 percent. Illinois' season free throw percentage is 74.1 percent.
Illinois ranks 12th in the nation in scoring and second in offensive efficiency. Connecticut is strong defensively, but not as good as Iowa State.
There hasn't been any stopping Illinois' Terrence Shannon Jr. He's averaging 30.2 points in his last seven games, the hottest player in the country. Connecticut has even a better offense than Illinois in terms of efficiency ranking No. 1 in the country. The Huskies are going to get their points against an Illinois defense that ranks below average rating 214th in scoring defense and 259th in 3-point defense.
|
03-29-24 |
Duke +4 v. Houston |
|
54-51 |
Win
|
100 |
20 h 24 m |
Show
|
Betting on ACC teams during the NCAA Tournament has been a gold mine. ACC teams are 9-1 SU, 8-1-1 ATS with Duke contributing a 2-0 SU and ATS mark. The Blue Devils are strong both on offense and defense. The same can't be said for Houston. The Cougars may have the best defense in the country, but their offense was below average. It ranked 165th in scoring, 240th in field goal percentage and 298th in free throw percentage. Duke has a top-20 defense going by Ken Pom's advanced metrics and averages six points more per game than Houston. The Blue Devils have an elite big man, Kyle Filipowski, and three excellent guards. Houston can't match that offensively. While the Blue Devils destroyed James Madison, 93-55, in the second round, Houston barely survived. The Cougars needed overtime to slip past Texas A&M after blowing a 13-point lead with under four minutes to play in regulation.
|
03-28-24 |
Illinois v. Iowa State -125 |
Top |
72-69 |
Loss |
-125 |
73 h 11 m |
Show
|
Illinois already has succeeded in winning more games in the NCAA Tournament, with two victories, than it did during the previous three seasons it was in the tournament.
But I don't see the Illini reaching three wins in their Thursday East Regional semifinal matchup against Iowa State.
Defense trumps offense. Illinois ranks 12th in scoring, but 214th defensively and 259th in 3-point defense. Terrence Shannon Jr. has carried Illinois in the tournament averaging 31.6 points.
Iowa State averages a respectable 75.7 points a game, but has the fifth-ranked defense in the country. If you judge by Ken Pom's rating then the Cyclones are the best defensive team. Iowa State's TJ Otzelberger may be the best defensive coach in the nation. He's going to be very dangerous given extra preparation time.
Look for the Cyclones to slow down and frustrate Shannon and the Illini with how well they double-team and rotate their defense. Iowa State has scoring depth. The Illini heavily rely on Shannon.
Illinois did well to win the Big Ten Conference Tournament. The Illini, though, were fortunate to have avoided Purdue and Michigan State. They beat Ohio State, which didn't make the NCAA Tournament, Nebraska and Wisconsin. Those last two teams lost by double-digits in their first-round NCAA Tourney games.
Iowa State won the Big 12 Conference Tournament beating Houston, the No. 2 ranked team in the country, 69-41, in the finals. The Cyclones also own victories Baylor and BYU during the past three weeks. I consider the Big 12 to be the toughest conference in the country.
|
03-25-24 |
Chicago State v. Fairfield -5 |
|
74-77 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 22 m |
Show
|
The 23-12 Fairfield Stags are a solid team that has a good offense, ranks 14th in 3-point shooting percentage and 35th in free throw percentage.
Chicago State has a lower-tier offense and is 13-18. The Cougars have a number of bad losses, including a 12-point loss to DePaul.
The Cougars, though, were able to take advantage of a disinterested San Diego team to pull off a first-round upset in their CBI opener. I don't see it happening again. This is just the Cougars' second game since Feb. 19.
|
03-24-24 |
Texas A&M +10.5 v. Houston |
Top |
95-100 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 54 m |
Show
|
Notice the low total here. It's justified. Houston is the top defensive team in the nation. Texas A&M also is strong defensively. The pace is going to be extremely slow. It means points are going to be hard to come by. So grabbing double-digits is the way to go especially given the line value and various edges that are in favor of the underdog Aggies.
Texas A&M has picked up its offense at the right time averaging 90.2 points in its last five games. The Aggies rank third in the nation in offensive rebounding and are a better free throw shooting team than Houston.
It takes good guards to beat Houston. Texas A&M has that. The Aggies also are healthier than the banged-up Cougars.
The two teams played each other this season. The game was played in Houston and the Cougars won, 70-66, failing to cover as a 7-point favorite. Now the game is at a neutral site and the point spread is much higher.
The Aggies have proven themselves against some elite opponents beating Tennessee, Kentucky and Iowa State. The Cougars just met Iowa State in the finals of the Big 12 Tournament championship game and lost big, 69-41.
|
03-23-24 |
Oregon +5.5 v. Creighton |
Top |
73-86 |
Loss |
-120 |
20 h 52 m |
Show
|
I have tremendous respect for Creighton. The Bluejays are strong on both sides of the ball and have an elite defensive center in Ryan Kalkbrenner. But I'm going to ride Oregon's momentum. The Ducks are at their peak, have a tremendous coach, Dana Altman, and a dominant center, N'Faly Dante.
Sparked by Dante stepping up the past few weeks as he's gotten fully healthy, the Ducks won the Pac-12 tournament - beating Arizona in the semifinals - and then knocking off South Carolina by 14 points in their opening NCAA Tournament game.
This game holds special meaning for Altman, a native of Nebraska who spent 16 seasons coaching Creighton leading the Bluejays to seven NCAA Tourney appearances.
Akron couldn't handle Creighton's height and shot poorly in losing to the Bluejays in the first round. Creighton, though, is stepping up in class with Oregon.
The Bluejays have to contend not only with Dante, but Oregon's hot-shooting guards. Dante missed the start of the season, but he's averaged 19.9 points on 84.1 percent shooting from the floor during his last seven games.
|
03-22-24 |
Texas A&M +1.5 v. Nebraska |
|
98-83 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 43 m |
Show
|
Nebraska can't be trusted outside of Lincoln going 5-9 in those games. Texas A&M should dominate on the glass. They also have a hot guard in Wade Taylor, who is coming off consecutive 30-point games. Nebraska has never won an NCAA Tournament game going 0-7. This is the Cornhuskers' first NCAA Tourney appearance in 10 years. Don't expect much.
|
03-22-24 |
Yale v. Auburn UNDER 140.5 |
|
78-76 |
Loss |
-110 |
14 h 58 m |
Show
|
Auburn is used to high-scoring SEC opponents who can play fast. That's certainly not Yale. The Bulldogs are a well-coached Ivy League team that is going to try to frustrate Auburn by playing at their usual slow tempo. They ranked in the top-30 in having the slowest possession time.
Yale earned its way to the NCAA Tournament by nipping Brown, 62-61, in the Ivy League Conference Tournament final. The Bulldogs like to score inside. That's going to be problematic against Auburn, though, because the Tigers have the 16th-best shot blocker in the country in Johni Broome.
The Tigers' strength is offensive rebounding. Yale, however, doesn't foul much and ranks in the top-15 in defensive rebounding.
So this matchup sets up for an Under.
|
03-22-24 |
Northwestern v. Florida Atlantic -3 |
Top |
77-65 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 29 m |
Show
|
Florida Atlantic was ranked as high as No. 7 this season in The Associated Press Top 25 before slipping out. The Owls were superior to Northwestern back then and they still are much the better team especially given the Wildcats' injury situation. The Owls reached the semifinals of the NCAA Tournament last season before losing to San Diego State by one point on a buzzer beater. Florida Atlantic returns that experience and is in an angry mood after a stunning upset loss to Temple in the American Athletic Conference Tournament.
Northwestern was fortunate to even be picked for the NCAA Tournament. I have Florida Atlantic ranked way ahead of the Wildcats in my power ratings. Not helping matters for Northwestern is injuries. Senior guard Ty Berry is out. He's the Wildcats' fourth leading scorer and center Matthew Nicholson is dealing with a knee injury.
|
03-21-24 |
NC State v. Texas Tech -4.5 |
Top |
80-67 |
Loss |
-120 |
22 h 42 m |
Show
|
Tremendous kudos for North Carolina State to win the ACC Conference Tournament as a No. 10 seed. The Wolfpack accomplished that by winning five games in five days. Great feat, but reality catches up to North Carolina State here. The NCAA Tournament committee did the Wolfpack no favors by making them play in Pittsburgh on Thursday.
Grant McCasland continued a recent Texas Tech tradition of strong coaching. The Red Raiders were riding a hot streak until running into second-ranked Houston in the Big 12 Conference Tournament semifinals.
The Big 12 may be the best conference in the country this season, while it was a down year for the ACC.
|
03-21-24 |
Oregon +1.5 v. South Carolina |
|
87-73 |
Win
|
100 |
16 h 40 m |
Show
|
In Dana Altman I trust. Altman is an elite coach. He's taken Oregon to seven NCAA Tournaments. The Ducks have never lost in the first round in any of them. Altman has Oregon peaking at just the right time as the Ducks won three in row to capture the Pac-12 Conference Tournament. One of their victories was against ninth-ranked Arizona. South Carolina is a great story going 26-7 after being picked to finish last in the 14-team Southeastern Conference preseason media poll. However, the Gamecocks have been wearing down going 5-4 in their last nine games.
|
03-21-24 |
Morehead State +12 v. Illinois |
|
69-85 |
Loss |
-110 |
15 h 2 m |
Show
|
I don't like Illinois' track record in the NCAA Tournament. The Illini have failed to get through the first weekend of the tournament during their last three appearances. Illinois gets worn down, which could be the case again this season after beating Wisconsin in the always-physical Big Ten Conference Tournament. The Illini have a potential superstar guard in Terrence Shannon Jr. Morehead State, however, has a very strong backcourt, too, with Riley Minix, Drew Thelwell and Kalil Thomas. Minix was the Ohio Valley Conference Player of the Year averaging 20.8 points and 9.8 rebounds. Thelwell holds the school's single-season assist record while Thomas ranked in the top 20 nationally with 103 3-pointers this season. The Eagles enter this matchup with a six-game win streak and being very underrated.
|
03-20-24 |
Appalachian State +7 v. Wake Forest |
Top |
76-87 |
Loss |
-110 |
14 h 18 m |
Show
|
Some teams aren't happy to have to settle for playing in the NIT. Appalachian State isn't one of those teams. The Mountaineers are excited to compete and even more excited to go against a bigger name in-state school, Wake Forest, a team they have never beaten. It's a quick 80-mile trip for the Mountaineers to meet the Demon Deacons in Winston-Salem, N.C.
"Playing in the postseason is a huge deal,'' Appalachian State coach Dustin Kerns was quoted as saying. "This is another stair taken upwards in the evolution of our program. No one on our team has ever played in the NIT, so this will be a great experience for everyone."
Appalachian State has the motivation and is good enough to upset Wake Forest straight-up. The Mountaineers rank 30th defensively and fourth in defensive field goal percentage. Each team averages 78 points a game. The Mountaineers are the stronger defensive team.
The Mountaineers can contain Wake Forest's pick-and-rolls and they have elite rim protector Justin Abson, who was the NCAA's fourth-leading shot-blocker. The Mountaineers defeated James Madison, a team getting a lot of love in the NCAA Tournament, twice this season.
The Mountaineers have won 16 of their last 18 games. Wake Forest is 2-4 SU and ATS in its last six games. Appalachian State and Wake Forest last met two years ago and Wake Forest won by one point.
|
03-19-24 |
Wagner v. Howard -3 |
|
71-68 |
Loss |
-110 |
9 h 8 m |
Show
|
Wagner and Howard meet in this play-in NCAA Tournament game. Power ratings-wise, I have Howard as more than a 3-point favorite. So I'll be on the Bison.
Wagner finished 7-9 in the Northeast Conference, but got hot in the conference tournament. The Seahawks finished the conference tournament title game with just seven healthy players. The Seahawks average just 63.1 points a game and rank 358th in field goal percentage.
Howard has the better record and the top player on the court in Bryce Harris, who led the team in scoring and rebounding.
|
03-17-24 |
Wisconsin v. Illinois -2.5 |
Top |
87-93 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 3 m |
Show
|
It took a layup at the buzzer to force overtime and then a great effort in overtime for Wisconsin to upset Purdue, 76-75, in a Big Ten Conference Tournament semifinal game Saturday.
But now the Badgers go from getting past the best big man in the Big Ten in 7-foot-4 Zach Edey to perhaps the most talented player in the conference, Illinois' Terrence Shannon Jr.
The Badgers entered the Big Ten Tournament losing eight of their last 11 games. The Badgers beat Maryland and banged-up Northwestern. Their victory against Purdue was a gutty effort. However, I don't see the Badgers pulling off a second straight upset in two days with some of their energy zapped from such a physical and emotional tussle with the Boilermakers.
Illinois also is not a good matchup for Wisconsin. The team's met once this season at Wisconsin on March 2. Illinois won, 91-83. Now the teams are on a neutral court in Minneapolis.
The Illini are explosive and talented, none more than the dynamic Shannon. Illinois is going to get its points. The Illini rank 12th in the country in scoring at 83.9 points a game. The way to beat Illinois is exploit its weak 3-point defense that ranks 259th.
Wisconsin, though, is a below average 3-point shooting team. The Badgers rank 192nd in 3-point accuracy at 33.9 percent. The Illini didn't have nearly the tough time with Nebraska in their semifinal Saturday game as the Badgers did in upsetting Purdue.
|
03-16-24 |
New Mexico +2.5 v. San Diego State |
|
68-61 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 26 m |
Show
|
I like New Mexico to upset San Diego State in the Mountain West Conference Tournament championship game.
The Lobos have looked good in the tournament going 3-0 SU and ATS sparked by guard Jaelen House, who is averaging 21.3 points in the tourney.
New Mexico has a scoring advantage and backcourt edge. San Diego State holds a defensive edge and front-court edge.
The Lobos are not a lock to reach the NCAA Tournament if they lose this game. The key is controlling pace. I don't see the Lobos, based on how they've looked in the tournament, getting dragged down to San Diego State's slow tempo.
|
03-16-24 |
UMass Lowell v. Vermont -7 |
|
61-66 |
Loss |
-110 |
11 h 11 m |
Show
|
This is the finals of the America East Conference Tournament and the deck is stacked in Vermont's favor. The venue is the Patrick Gym in Burlington, VT. That is the Catamounts' home floor where they are 44-2 since the start of 2021-22 season. Vermont has won 32 straight conference games at home.
UMass Lowell plays up-tempo and averages 80.3 points. Vermont ranks ninth in the country defensively holding opponents to 62.9 points. The Catamounts are disciplined and do not turn the ball over with the 10th-lowest turnover rate in the nation.
So we have a complete contrast of styles. Which will prevail?
The teams met twice during the regular season. Vermont won both times with the latest being a 74-62 home win two weeks ago. The Catamounts have won nine in a row.
Vermont has the history, home-court and right style to beat UMass by double-digits again.
|
03-15-24 |
St. Peter's v. Quinnipiac UNDER 137.5 |
|
62-60 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 45 m |
Show
|
St. Peter's ranks 14th in the nation defensively allowing only 64.1 points a game. Quinnipiac has stepped up defensively holding its last four foes to an average of 61.7 points. St. Peter's ranks 339th in scoring. This is a semifinal matchup of the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference so the defensive intensity should be raised. The site, Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City, N.J., is notorious for being a tough shooting venue because of its difficult backdrops and structure. The Under has cashed 65 percent of the past 62 tournament games played there.
|
03-15-24 |
Mississippi State v. Tennessee -10 |
|
73-56 |
Loss |
-110 |
12 h 17 m |
Show
|
Tennessee beat every team in the SEC except one on its way to capturing the regular-season title. The one team the Volunteers lost to happened to be Mississippi State.
That should ensure a full, motivated effort from the 24-7 Volunteers against the Bulldogs, who finished the regular season with a losing SEC record.
Mississippi State beat LSU, 70-60, as a 4 1/2-point favorite in the first round of the SEC Tournament on Thursday. I'm not putting much stock in that, though. The Bulldogs often had trouble when stepping up in class like they will here. Mississippi State had lost and failed to cover during its previous four games before beating LSU.
The Volunteers, on the other hand, enter the conference tournament 7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS in their past eight games. They've scored at least 81 points in six of their last eight games.
Look for rested Tennessee to get its revenge in a big way against the Bulldogs.
|
03-14-24 |
Colorado State v. Nevada -2.5 |
Top |
85-78 |
Loss |
-110 |
21 h 33 m |
Show
|
I'm going to roll with Nevada, which has won 10 of its last 11 games. The Wolf Pack also won both regular-season games against Colorado State, 77-64, at home and, 77-74, on the road where they led nearly the entire game. Nevada defeated the Rams on the road minus Kenan Blackshear, its best all-around player. Blackshear is healthy now.
The Wolf Pack get a scheduling edge, too, with the Mountain West Conference Tournament being in Las Vegas.
Matchup-wise, Nevada has a size advantage in the low post with Nick Davidson and has a trio of excellent defensive guards to hound Colorado State's star point guard Isaiah Stevens.
Colorado State has been out of sync when playing Nevada due to the Wolf Pack slowing things down and playing excellent perimeter defense. The Rams were just 12-of-41 (29 percent) from 3-point range in their two games against Nevada while the Wolf Pack made 14-of-31 shots from beyond the arc for 45 percent. This isn't surprising since Nevada is a top-50 3-point shooting team while the Rams ranked second-to-last in the Mountain West in 3-point accuracy.
|
03-14-24 |
Providence v. Creighton -8 |
|
78-73 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 44 m |
Show
|
Creighton is at its finest when it comes to the best time to peak - in March. The Bluejays have covered 82 percent of their past 17 March games. I like the Bluejays to roll past Providence by double-digits.
The Bluejays enter the Big East Conference Tournament having won seven of their last eight games, including defeating No. 2 ranked UConn by 19 points on Feb. 20.
Providence isn't nearly as good as Creighton and isn't in good form going 2-3 SU and ATS in its last five games. Both of the Friars' victories during this span were against Georgetown, which went 2-18 in conference.
|
03-13-24 |
Vanderbilt v. Arkansas -6 |
|
85-90 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 36 m |
Show
|
Vanderbilt is coming off an upset home win against Florida. But even though Arkansas has had a disappointing season, I don't see the Commodores hanging in against the Razorbacks.
Prior to upsetting the Gators, the Commodores were blown out by Kentucky and LSU. Vanderbilt's last five defeats have all been by double-digits.
Arkansas, on the other hand, has covered six of its last seven games. Sparked by Khalif Battle, the Razorbacks have averaged nearly 91 points during their past five games. Vanderbilt can't match that firepower with its 323rd-ranked offense.
|
03-12-24 |
Florida International v. Jacksonville State -4 |
|
76-67 |
Loss |
-110 |
11 h 17 m |
Show
|
This is a matchup of the bottom two teams in Conference USA. But it has a clear right side - Jacksonville State. The Gamecocks won and covered both regular-season games against Florida International out-rebounding the Panthers by 27 boards.
Jacksonville State's strength is its 32nd-ranked defense that yields just 66.1 points a game. FIU has no strengths. The Panthers are a below average shooting team, terrible from the free throw line and give up 10 more points per game than Jacksonville State. The Panthers rank 349th in defensive field goal percentage and 369th in 3-point defense.
FIU is not in good form having dropped 10 of its last 13 games.
|
03-11-24 |
Tex A&M Commerce v. Nicholls State -5.5 |
|
51-72 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 50 m |
Show
|
Nicholls State is the better team and in better form than Texas A&M Commerce in this Southland Conference Tournament game. Texas A&M Commerce has been terrible in an underdog role. The Lions are 0-7-1 ATS the past eight times they've been an underdog of more than one point. They are a bad shooting team and are bad, too, in defensive field goal percentage ranking 300th. Nicholls State went 2-0 vs the Lions during the regular season, winning the most recent matchup, 85-70, at home on Feb. 24.
|
03-09-24 |
Arizona v. USC OVER 159.5 |
|
65-78 |
Loss |
-110 |
13 h 47 m |
Show
|
Thanks to the No. 2 scoring offense in the nation, Arizona has wrapped up another Pac-12 regular-season championship. USC has finally gotten healthy and is coming on scoring 81 and 82 points, respectively, in their last two games.
I see a loose, up-tempo fun game between these two teams as they conclude their regular season. And, yes, plenty of points.
Arizona averages 90.3 points. USC rates 265th defensively and 331st in 3-point defense. The Trojans will be motivated to match the Wildcats' huge scoring output since they won't be able to stop them defensively. They are capable of that being at home, healthy and drawing Arizona when it doesn't have incentive.
|
03-09-24 |
Cal Poly v. UC San Diego -18 |
Top |
87-92 |
Loss |
-110 |
17 h 20 m |
Show
|
Yes, San Diego is a much better team than Cal Poly SLO. That's why the point spread is as high as it is. But motivation also matters in this season-finale. San Diego has it. Cal Poly doesn't and that is why the Tritons will bury Cal Poly by far more points than even this lopsided point spread.
The Mustangs are one of the worst teams in the country with a 4-27 record. Their last victory was on Dec. 21. They are an embarrassing 0-19 in the Big West Conference.
San Diego is 20-11 and 14-5 in the Big West, which is the second-best mark in the league. However, the Tritons are ineligible to play in the conference tournament, NCAA Tournament and NIT. That's because they transitioned from Division II to Division I when they joined the Big West in 2020. There is a four-year transition period before the team can be eligible to play in those postseason tournaments. This is the final year the Tritons have to wait.
So look for San Diego to come out strong with this being its final game. The Tritons were upset by Cal-Davis at home in their previous game this past Thursday. They certainly don't want to close their season with another disappointing performance. They should come out focused and they have the perfect patsy to make amends.
The overmatched Mustangs just want their horrendous season to close. They are a terrible defensive team and the sixth-lowest scoring team in the nation averaging a puny 62.9 points a game. San Diego averages nearly 15 more points per game than the Mustangs.
|
03-09-24 |
Colorado v. Oregon State +8 |
|
73-57 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 18 m |
Show
|
It's tough to beat both Oregon and Oregon State on the road in the span of three days. Colorado accomplished the first task defeating Oregon, 79-75, this past Thursday. That win clinched third place in the Pac-12 standings and earned the Buffaloes a first round bye in the Pac-12 Conference Tournament.
It also puts the Buffaloes in a flat spot here.
Oregon State has been disappointing with a 13-17 record. However, the Beavers have some big Pac-12 victories, including upsetting Arizona, Utah and Arizona State. Those victories all came at home.
The Beavers are 2-1 in their last three games. They just defeated Utah, 92-85, two days ago as a 7-point home underdog.
"I know the progress has not shown in the win-loss record, but our guys are getting better," Oregon State coach Wayne Tinkle said following the Utah game.
Cody Williams, Colorado's third-leading scorer, is questionable with an ankle injury.
|
03-08-24 |
Boise State v. San Diego State UNDER 136 |
Top |
79-77 |
Loss |
-110 |
12 h 39 m |
Show
|
Boise State and San Diego State are two of the better teams in the highly competitive Mountain West Conference. Boise State is 21-9 and San Diego State is 22-8. Both, though, are in bad moods coming off losses.
So the defensive intensity should be up as the teams close out the regular season with this game, with seeding position in next week's conference tournament at stake.
San Diego State gives up the 29th-fewest points per game in the country. The Aztecs have held their last opponents to an average of 55.6 points.
Boise State ranks 50th in the nation defensively and eighth in defensive rebounding. The Broncos play at the second-slowest tempo in the Mountain West. San Diego State is a terrible 3-point shooting team and the Aztecs aren't likely to get many second-chance points, either.
The last six games in the series have averaged only 113.6 combined points. There were 133 points scored in the first meeting in Boise when the Broncos nipped the Aztecs, 67-66.
|
03-08-24 |
Ball State +5 v. Bowling Green |
|
70-80 |
Loss |
-110 |
6 h 28 m |
Show
|
I like Ball State's current form. The Cardinals have been underdogs three times in their last five games. They've won each of those games beating Northern Illinois and Central Michigan on the road. Then this past Tuesday, the Cardinals upset Kent, 76-69, as a 3-point home 'dog.
Bowling Green is 2-5 in its last seven games. The Falcons are only 2-7 ATS the last nine times they've been favored. Bowling Green is good defensively, but hasn't scored more than 60 points in five of its last seven games. So I find this too many points for the Falcons to be laying.
|
03-07-24 |
CS-Fullerton v. Cal-Riverside UNDER 137 |
|
74-84 |
Loss |
-110 |
13 h 32 m |
Show
|
These teams are far better on defense than offense. Cal State-Fullerton ranks 320th in scoring, but 78th defensively. Cal Riverside rates 288th in scoring and 169th defensively.
Cal Riverside may catch a break as Fullerton could be without its second-leading scorer, guard Max Jones. He's questionable with an injury.
This is an important game for both teams with the Big West Conference Tournament approaching. So I'm expecting a cautious approach with both teams relying on their defense to get stops.
There won't be much of a crowd either, probably no more than 500 people. So the lack of people isn't exactly going to ignite either team's offense either.
|
03-07-24 |
SIU-Edwardsville v. Morehead State UNDER 138 |
Top |
63-78 |
Loss |
-110 |
13 h 6 m |
Show
|
Strong defense, slow tempo and a tough shooting venue. Those are the reasons why I like this total to go Under in this Ohio Valley Conference Tournament game. Morehead State gives up the second-fewest points in the country at 62.5 per game. They rank in the top-10, too, in defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense. And here's the kicker - the Eagles also are a bottom-10 team in terms of pace. They play extremely slow. That is fine with SIU Edwardsville. The Cougars are playing without rest having beaten Eastern Illinois, 68-57, in a first round OVC tournament game on Wednesday. The tempo in that game was slow and the Cougars were fine playing that way. Morehead State has been especially sharp defensively in its last three games allowing an average of just 52 points. The Eagles are strong favorites to beat SIU Edwardsville, but they will be careful. The Cougars upset them, 61-48, at home during the regular season. The Cougars accomplished that by playing at a slow tempo. They have an above average defense, giving up 70.3 points. The venue should factor, too. The game is being played at Ford Center in Evansville, Ind. This is a neutral site arena with 11,000 seats that traditionally has been hard for players to get used to the shooting sights. The Under has cashed in 58 percent of the previous 43 Ohio Valley Conference tournament games played at Ford Center.
|
03-06-24 |
Fairleigh Dickinson v. Le Moyne -3.5 |
|
61-82 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 18 m |
Show
|
I trust Le Moyne's defense much more than Fairleigh Dickinson's offense in this Northeast Conference Tournament matchup.
Le Moyne is giving up an average of 63.5 points in its last eight games. Fairleigh Dickinson ranks 318th defensively giving up an average of 77.4 points.
Le Moyne held the Knights to an average of 65.5 points in the two regular season meetings.
|
03-06-24 |
Villanova v. Seton Hall |
|
56-66 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 3 m |
Show
|
Villanova is in good shape for an NCAA Tournament bid. Seton Hall isn't - unless it wins here. I believe the Pirates will accomplish that.
Seton Hall is coming off road defeats to Creighton and Connecticut. No shame in that. But the Pirates must protect their home-court edge where they are 12-3.
Villanova shouldn't have the motivation that Seton Hall has. The Pirates also have revenge incentive for an, 80-54, road loss to the Wildcats on Feb. 11.
|
03-05-24 |
Nevada v. Boise State UNDER 142.5 |
Top |
76-66 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 45 m |
Show
|
There were only 120 points scored in the team's first meeting, a 64-56 Boise State win on Jan. 12. Do I think more points will be scored in this rematch? Yes, but not enough of them go to Over the total.
This is an important Mountain West Conference game with Nevada tied for second place one game behind Boise State and Utah State for the lead. So the intensity should be there.
Nevada ranks 42nd defensively and 38th in defensive efficiency. The Wolf Pack were hurt by Boise State's star big man, Tyson Degenhart in that first meeting. Degenhart, who averages 17 points a game, scored 20 points against Nevada. But the Wolf Pack have improved their low-post defense since then.
Boise State ranks 43rd defensively and 31st in defensive efficiency. The Broncos play at the second slowest tempo in the Mountain West. They are strong both in defensive rebounding and 3-point defense. Nevada managed only two offensive rebounds in the first meeting. That wasn't a fluke. Only 10 teams in the country allow fewer second-chance points than Boise State.
There's a chance the Wolf Pack could be without their best backcourt player, point guard Kenan Blackshear. He missed the Wolf Pack's last game and is questionable here with a calf injury. That injury could slow him - and Nevada's pace - if Blackshear does play.
|
03-04-24 |
Delaware State v. Howard -4 |
|
66-85 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 54 m |
Show
|
Howard is in excellent form winning five of its last six games, including three in a row.The Bison average four more points per game than Delaware State and can exploit the Hornets' porous 3-point defense, which ranks 338th.
The teams met a month ago at Delaware State and the Hornets lost to the Bison, 75-71, despite getting to shoot 10 more free throws.
|
03-03-24 |
Indiana +9 v. Maryland |
|
83-78 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 24 m |
Show
|
Maryland ranks 332nd in field goal percentage, is the worst 3-point shooting team in the Big Ten Conference and its home mystique has been shattered with losses to Rutgers and Northwestern.
So Indiana isn't getting enough respect here.
Kel'el Ware, the Hooisers' 7-foot center, is coming on strong and Indiana is off a confidence-building home win against Wisconsin this past Tuesday. Ware is averaging 20.5 points in his last four games. He made 11 of 12 shots from the floor against the Badgers.
Indiana defeated Maryland, 65-53, at home when the teams first met this season.
|
03-02-24 |
UT-Rio Grande Valley v. California Baptist UNDER 138 |
|
52-88 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 19 m |
Show
|
Both teams are dealing with injuries that have derailed their offenses.
UT Rio Grande Valley is averaging only 52.6 points in its last three games. The Vaqueros are a bottom-15 3-point shooting defense and facing a Cal Baptist defense that ranks 41st. They could manage just 54 points in a 63-54 loss to Cal Baptist in the first meeting.
The Lancers' offense is down without Dominique Daniels, who is far and away their scoring leader averaging 19.2 points. The Lancers are averaging 59 points during their past three games.
|
03-02-24 |
Kansas State +6.5 v. Cincinnati |
|
72-74 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 36 m |
Show
|
Kansas State is coming on and Cincinnati is reeling. So this is a generous amount of points to back the Wildcats in an important game for both teams that should feature lots of intensity.
The 17-11 Wildcats are off victories against ranked BYU and West Virginia. They remain alive for an NCAA Tournament bid given how tough the Big 12 is this season.
Cincinnati has likely played itself out of the NCAA Tournament going 1-5 in its last six games. The Bearcats are 16-12 overall and 5-10 in the Big 12. Cincinnati's lone win during its last six games was against Central Florida by two points. If you take away their two victories vs Central Florida, the Bearcats would be 1-8 in their last nine games.
|
03-01-24 |
Southern Miss v. UL - Lafayette -7 |
|
61-77 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 0 m |
Show
|
Lafayette is home, in a revenge spot and in stop-the-pain mode having lost four in a row. It says a lot that the oddsmaker has opened the Ragin' Cajuns such a strong favorite against Southern Mississippi. I agree with their assessment. I see the Ragin' Cajuns winning by double-digits as three of their past four four losses have come on the road.
The Ragin' Cajuns average six more points per game than the Golden Eagles. They also rank third nationally in 3-point defense. Southern Mississippi is 220th in 3-point shooting and 249th in 3-point defense.
There also is a key injury. Southern Mississippi will be without Donovan Ivory, who is its third-leading scorer at 13.1 points and most accurate free throw shooter. He's out with a foot injury.
|
03-01-24 |
Fairfield +1.5 v. Marist |
Top |
55-58 |
Loss |
-115 |
16 h 38 m |
Show
|
Marist opened the smallest of favorites. Still, The Red Foxes opened as a favorite - and that's wrong. Fairfield is the superior team.
Fairfield leads the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference (MAAC) with a 12-5 mark. Marist is in fourth place with a 10-6 mark. The Red Foxes have three fewer overall victories than Fairfield.
Marist lost, 69-60, to Saint Peter's as 3 1/2-point road 'dogs in its last game this past Sunday. Fairfield defeated Saint Peter's, 64-62, on the road and whipped them, 76-67, at home.
The Staggs also rolled past Marist, 82-61, as short home favorites back on Jan. 7. Fairfield has the healthier frontcourt and holds a strong backcourt edge on the Red Foxes. The Staggs have the top guard depth in the MAAC. They forced 18 turnovers against Marist in the first game. That wasn't unusual. Marist has a turnover problem and the Staggs' guards are excellent defenders.
Marist has a stingy defense that is aided by its offense's half-court slow, deliberate style. However, Fairfield averages 12 points more per game and ranks 10th in the nation in 3-point accuracy. Caleb Fields, one of four good guards Fairfield has, burned the Red Foxes for 33 points while hitting 10-of-18 3-pointers in the first meeting.
The Staggs are in excellent current form, too, winning six of their last seven games, including going 3-0 SU and ATS in their past three games. The Staggs have won outright five of the last six times they've been underdogs. Marist has a losing ATS record the past nine times it has been favored.
Fairfield has defeated Marist each of the previous five seasons on the road. This includes a 70-61 away win last year.
|
02-29-24 |
Gonzaga v. San Francisco +4 |
|
86-68 |
Loss |
-110 |
13 h 41 m |
Show
|
Gonzaga is back in the Associated Press Top 25 ranking 23rd. But this isn't the elite Gonzaga team of previous years. They are overpriced against San Francisco, which is 7-1 in its last eight games and 13-1 at home.
The Bulldogs beat the Dons on their home-court, but the game was close. Gonzaga won, 77-72, as a 9 1/2-point favorite on Jan. 25.
While this is a huge game in the West Coast Conference, the Bulldogs have even a bigger game on deck when they play at 17th-ranked Saint Mary's on Saturday night.
|
02-28-24 |
Minnesota +11.5 v. Illinois |
|
97-105 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 9 m |
Show
|
You wouldn't know it from their last game, a bad 18-point loss to Nebraska this past Sunday. But the Minnesota Gophers own the best point spread mark in college basketball at 23-4 (85 percent).
The 17-10 Gophers have been a huge surprise. I expect Minnesota to play hard with tremendous effort after laying an egg against Nebraska. Gophers coach Ben Johnson called into question the passion of his players following that 73-55 road loss to the Cornhuskers.
It was just the third time in 27 games the Gophers had lost by more than 11 points. Minnesota has covered 11 of 14 times as an underdog and had covered nine in a row until the dreadful loss to Nebraska.
Illinois has a losing ATS record in its last nine games. The Illini have won 14 of their 16 home games, but are only 8-7-1 ATS in those games.
|
02-28-24 |
St. John's v. Butler -120 |
Top |
82-59 |
Loss |
-120 |
20 h 13 m |
Show
|
Butler is home, has revenge and is in circle-the-wagons mode. The Bulldogs have lost four in a row putting them on the NCAA Tournament bubble. This is a huge game for the Bulldogs and I believe they will come through given St. John's recent road conference struggles.
St. John's is off a huge, 80-66, upset of then 15th-ranked Creighton this past Sunday. That was at home, though. The Red Storm are 1-5 SU, 2-4 ATS in their last six Big East road contests. Their lone victory during this span was against Georgetown, which is 2-15 in the Big East.
Despite the win against Creighton, the Red Storm have not been doing that well going 4-8 in their last 12 games.
|
02-27-24 |
Nevada +7.5 v. Colorado State |
Top |
77-74 |
Win
|
100 |
23 h 58 m |
Show
|
Colorado State has yet to lose at home in seven Mountain West Conference games this season. But it wouldn't shock me if the Rams lost straight-up to Nevada.
The Wolf Pack are a tough matchup for Colorado State. That was proven in the first game between these teams on Jan. 24. The Wolf Pack won, 77-64, as 4 1/2-point home favorites. That was the most points the Rams allowed in regulation during their last 19 games.
Nevada took advantage of its height advantage to make 56.8 percent of its shots inside the paint.
The Rams are heavily reliant upon point guard Isaiah Stevens. But Stevens had trouble against the Wolf Pack's 38th-ranked defense making only four-of-16 shots from the field. Nevada held Colorado State to just 26.1 percent from 3-point range as the Rams missed 17 of 23 shots from beyond the arc. This wasn't a fluke as the Wolf Pack have some of the Mountain West Conference best perimeter defenders in Tre Coleman, Daniel Foster and Kenan Blackshear. They are a big reason why the Wolf Pack give up just 66.3 points a game.
The Wolf Pack have held six of their last seven opponents to 66 or fewer points. Discount an 83-82 loss to New Mexico and Nevada is surrendering an average of only 61.6 points in its last six games.
|
02-27-24 |
Valparaiso v. Northern Iowa UNDER 148 |
|
54-68 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 32 m |
Show
|
I always think defense first when it comes to the Missouri Valley Conference. This quick rematch between Valparaiso and Northern Iowa should result in a lower-scoring game than the oddsmaker perceives.
Valparaiso has been playing better defense with the exception of its Feb. 14 game against Northern Iowa. The Panthers beat Valparaiso, 86-67, by shooting a phenomenal 67 percent from the floor.
Northern Iowa has held five of its last seven opponents to 71 or fewer points. Valparaiso has been held to 70 or fewer points in eight of its last 10 games.
|
02-26-24 |
Coppin State v. Howard -13 |
|
69-78 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 1 m |
Show
|
Howard is a mediocre MEAC team. But the Bison are vastly superior to Coppin State, which is 2-22 and has lost 15 of its last 16 games.
The Eagles average 57.6 points a game. That's the second-lowest mark in the country! Howard averages 18 points more per game than Coppin State.
The Bison played at Coppin State on Jan. 29 and won, 81-66. It's not too much to ask of them to cover this number at home against a punchless and dead opponent.
|
02-25-24 |
Siena +16 v. Fairfield |
|
64-88 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 18 m |
Show
|
Siena has been an easy fade as the Saints are one of the worst teams in college basketball with a 4-22 record, including 3-12 in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference.
But I'm going to be on the Saints today getting this many points because Fairfield is in a major letdown spot. The Stags moved into second place in the MAAC after upsetting conference leader Quinnipiac, 85-81, as a road underdog just two days ago.
That was a great victory for Fairfield. The Stags, though, are not some great power. They have a losing ATS mark and have dropped four games at home.
Siena does have one good player, Sean Durugordon. He's averaging 19.4 points and 7.6 rebounds per game.
The Saints were only three-point 'dogs when they lost at home to Fairfield, 93-69, on Jan. 5. Now look at how high the point spread is.
|
02-24-24 |
Pepperdine v. San Francisco OVER 149.5 |
|
68-92 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 8 m |
Show
|
Pepperdine has gone Over in five of its last six games. The Waves are averaging 90 points in their last two games, but their defense remains awful.
Pepperdine ranks 269th in scoring defense, 357th in defensive field goal percentage and 356th in 3-point defense. Just three games ago they yielded 103 points to St. Mary's, which is 27 points above the Gaels' season average.
San Francisco certainly can exploit such a weak defense, especially at home. The Dons average 78.6 points. They rank 12th in field goal percentage. The Dons have scored at least 90 points in four of their last seven home games.
Defensively, though, the Dons have surrendered 70 or more points in eight of their last 10 games.
|
02-24-24 |
CS-Northridge +2.5 v. CS-Fullerton |
|
65-60 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 42 m |
Show
|
Even though Cal-State Fullerton is playing at home, it's a surprise the Titans are favored. Cal-Northridge is the superior team.
The Matadors average nine more points per game than Fullerton and defeated the Titans by five points at home on Jan. 13 as a four-point favorite.
Northridge has proven itself on the road, too, winning eight times. This includes an eight-point upset win against Santa Barbara four games ago.
Fullerton has lost five times already at home. The Titans are 1-5 in their last six overall games.
|
02-24-24 |
Duke +2.5 v. Wake Forest |
Top |
79-83 |
Loss |
-105 |
16 h 25 m |
Show
|
This is only the second time Duke is an underdog this season. The first came against North Carolina on the road. The Blue Devils lost to North Carolina. Since that defeat, though, Duke has won and covered five in a row.
Wake Forest is 14-0 at home, the only ACC team without a home loss. But the 17-9 Demon Deacons aren't as good as the 21-5 Blue Devils, who are 12-3 in the ACC compared to Wake Forest's 9-6 league mark.
I was far more impressed with Duke's 84-55 road victory against Miami this past Wednesday than Wake Forest's, 91-58, home victory against Pittsburgh, which shot just 29 percent from the field vs the Demon Deacons.
Duke handled Wake Forest, 77-69, as seven-point home favorites on Feb. 12. So I find plenty of line value on the Blue Devils as an underdog.
|
02-23-24 |
Fairfield v. Quinnipiac -2.5 |
|
85-81 |
Loss |
-115 |
9 h 16 m |
Show
|
Quinnipiac is 10-2 in its last dozen games, but coming off an embarrassing home to Niagara. The Bobcats are superior to Fairfield, which is 2-6 ATS in its last eight games, and the price is low enough to back them.
The Bobcats rank 13th in the country in free throw percentage. Their free throw shooting and defensive field goal percentage is far better than Fairfield.
Quinnipiac didn't play that well in its first meeting with Fairfield this season committing 16 turnovers. The Stags made more free throws than the Bobcats, too. Yet the Bobcats still won. I expect them to play much better at home especially off a bad loss.
|
02-22-24 |
Troy State +2.5 v. Arkansas State |
Top |
71-79 |
Loss |
-110 |
22 h 53 m |
Show
|
Troy is 7-1 in its last eight games. However, that one defeat came at home to Arkansas State, 82-71, last Thursday.
The Trojans were 6 1/2-point favorites in that matchup. Now, a week later, they opened as underdogs to Arkansas State.
I'm not buying that. It's not just rapid revenge for Troy. The Trojans are the superior team. Troy is 18-9 and 11-3 in the Sun Belt Conference, tied for second one game behind Appalachian State. Arkansas State is 13-4 overall and 8-6 in the Sun Belt.
Both teams average 79 points. The difference comes on defense. Troy gives up 69.4 points a game. Arkansas State permits 78.4 points per game, which ranks 334th. The Red Wolves also are 300th in defensive field goal percentage.
Don't expect Troy to have a second straight off-shooting game against Arkansas State. So I'll take the points with the superior team.
|
02-22-24 |
College of Charleston v. Delaware +2 |
|
90-71 |
Loss |
-110 |
18 h 19 m |
Show
|
College of Charleston has a better record than Delaware, but I don't see the Cougars winning this game.
The Cougars are 1-5 ATS in their last six games and surrender more than 76 points on the road. The Blue Hens are 5-1 in their last six games.
Delaware surrenders fewer than 70 points a game and ranks 38th in 3-point defense. The Blue Hens are giving up an average of 61.7 points in their last four games. College of Charleston is heavily reliant on hitting 3-pointers. The combination of being on the road and facing a strong 3-point defense will prove the undoing of College of Charleston in this one.
|
02-22-24 |
Hampton +9.5 v. Campbell |
|
72-68 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 35 m |
Show
|
Hampton was a 3 1/2-point favorite when it hosted Campbell back on Jan. 6. Even though Campbell won, 80-69, I find this point spread too high. Hampton has a winning ATS mark in its last six games. The Pirates have lost by more than six points twice in their last seven games. They are 6-2 ATS the last eight times when getting three or more points. Campbell is 3-6 in its last nine games. The Fighting Camels have been favored by more than four points only once all season. That was against 9-16 Morgan State.
|
02-21-24 |
UNLV -5.5 v. Air Force |
Top |
72-43 |
Win
|
100 |
22 h 37 m |
Show
|
Air Force is the worst team in the Mountain West Conference. The Falcons are 1-11 in the conference and have lost 14 of their past 15 games. Guess who that one victory came against? Yep, it was against UNLV.
The Falcons stunned the Rebels, 90-58, as 10 1/2-point road 'dogs on Jan. 23. Air Force is 0-6 SU and ATS since then. Air Force made 14 of 28 3-pointers against the Rebels.
Not only do the Rebels have revenge, but they also are in a kill mood after blowing an 11-point second-half lead in a 69-66 home loss to arch-rival Nevada this past Saturday. That loss snapped a five-game UNLV win streak.
The Rebels are 14-10 on the season, 7-5 in the Mountain West Conference. They are a much better team than Air Force and should have huge motivation. Air Force ranks 315th in scoring at 67.9 points per game. The Falcons rank 337th in defensive field goal percentage and 354th in 3-point defense.
Oh, yes, the Falcons also are 0-8 SU and ATS in their last eight home games.
|
02-21-24 |
Dayton -130 v. George Mason |
|
67-71 |
Loss |
-130 |
9 h 15 m |
Show
|
If Dayton wins this game it will take over sole possession of first place in the Atlantic 10 Conference. The Flyers are a complete team with a star player, DaRon Holmes, to match George Mason's key player, Keyshawn Hall.
George Mason, though, could be minus their second-leading scorer, Darius Maddox, though. He's questionable with an injury.
The 16th-ranked Flyers have proven themselves on the road covering eight of 11 times. They are the superior team so this is a short price to lay.
|
02-21-24 |
Richmond -4 v. Rhode Island |
|
85-77 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 49 m |
Show
|
Richmond is a couple of levels higher than Rhode Island, much closer to the elite of the Atlantic 10 Conference - Dayton and Loyola of Chicago - than below .500 where Rhode Island resides.
The Spiders are 13-2 in their last 15 games, riding a lot of momentum. Rhode Island has been going the opposite direction, losing seven of its past nine games. Richmond is 18-7 overall and 10-2 in the Atlantic 10. The Rams, by contrast, are 11-14 and have a losing conference record.
Richmond ranks 32nd defensively and ninth in defensive field goal percentage. The Rams are mediocre offensively and are one of the worst free throw shooting teams in the nation making only 63.8 percent.
The Spiders have won five of the last six times on the road and have defeated Rhode Island five consecutive times.
|
02-20-24 |
Wyoming +14.5 v. Nevada |
Top |
58-76 |
Loss |
-110 |
11 h 43 m |
Show
|
There is no team Nevada gets more motivated to play then its in-state rival, UNLV. The Wolf Pack had lost four in a row to UNLV - until this past Saturday night.
Nevada rallied from nine points down to nip the Rebels, 69-66, as two-point road 'dogs. It was a very satisfying victory for the Wolf Pack. But it also puts the Wolf Pack in a letdown spot for this matchup against Wyoming.
The Cowboys are a respectable .500 Mountain West Conference team that has a winning overall record and a winning league road mark. They are not an easy opponent for Nevada. The Cowboys proved that back on Jan. 20 when they upset the Wolf Pack, 98-93, as seven-point home 'dogs. Now the line has doubled, which I find way too high.
|
02-20-24 |
UCF v. West Virginia +2.5 |
|
67-77 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 22 m |
Show
|
UCF is 1-5 in its last six games and shouldn't be laying points on the road to West Virginia. The Mountaineers are finally healthy and have proven themselves at home having knocked off then No. 3 Kansas.
Just a couple of days after upsetting Kansas, West Virginia had to play at Central Florida and lost in that flat spot. RaeQuan Battle, the Mountaineers' leading scorer, was ejected with nearly 11 minutes left in that game.
Battle and the rest of the Mountaineers will be seeking revenge. Central Florida has been far less effective offensively when playing on the road, averaging 10 points fewer per 100 possessions.
|
02-20-24 |
Bowling Green +1.5 v. Central Michigan |
|
60-62 |
Loss |
-105 |
9 h 57 m |
Show
|
I find this line to be off. Bowling Green was a whooping nine-point home favorite against Central Michigan on Feb. 3. Central Michigan upset Bowling Green, 77-76 in overtime. The Chippewas shot 51 percent from the floor in that game. Bowling Green had a terrible shooting game making only 33 percent of their field goals, 66 percent of their free throws and missing 33 of 40 shots from beyond the arc.
These teams are third and fourth in the MAC. Bowling Green has the better overall record.
Central Michigan ranks 328th in scoring at 66.1 points a game. Bowling Green averages 75.8 points a game. I expect the Falcons to shoot much better and for Central Michigan to shoot much worse in this short revenge spot for Bowling Green.
|
02-19-24 |
Iowa State +9.5 v. Houston |
Top |
65-73 |
Win
|
100 |
23 h 43 m |
Show
|
Maybe it's because Houston dominated Texas this past Saturday holding the Longhorns to their lowest point total of the season in an 82-61 victory. But I find this line way too high on the Cougars.
So I'm on the Cyclones.
Yes, Houston has a 19-game home win streak and is ranked first in the country defensively. Iowa State, however, ranks seventh defensively in the nation, averages more points per game than the Cougars and is a better free throw shooting team.
The Cyclones have had the Cougars' number, too, winning seven of the past eight times. This includes a 57-53 home victory against Texas on Jan. 9 when the Cyclones were a much shorter underdog.
Iowa State's T.J. Otzelberger is one of the top-five coaches in the country, in my view. The Cyclones are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games. Texas had failed to cover in its past four games before its victory against Texas.
|
02-18-24 |
Canisius -2.5 v. Siena |
Top |
73-64 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 16 m |
Show
|
Canisius is nothing great. But Siena is the Washington Generals of college basketball. Canisius is 9-15. Siena is 3-21 in its last 24 games. The Saints very well could be the worst offensive team in the country.
The Golden Griffins average 71.8 points a game. That's nearly 12 points more per game than the Saints.
Siena is averaging 60.1 points. That miniscule average shrinks even more to 54.2 points in its last eight games.
The Saints rank 360th in scoring, 354th in free throw accuracy, 348th in field goal percentage and 358th in 3-point percent.
Siena's below-average defense can't make up for its lack of offense. The Saints rank 278th defensively allowing 75.2 points a game. Canisius defeated Siena, 67-63, on Jan. 12. The Saints have gotten worse since then losing eight of their last nine games.
|
02-17-24 |
NC State +8 v. Clemson |
|
78-77 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 38 m |
Show
|
The ACC has a tendency to bring down teams that are riding high. It's that competitive and prideful of a conference loaded with quality teams.
North Carolina State is one of those quality teams. But the Wolfpack find themselves in must-win mode if they hope to be considered for an NCAA Tournament berth after a four-point loss to Wake Forest and a three-point loss to Pittsburgh during their last two games.
Clemson is looking strong, winners of three in a row.
North Carolina State, though, has had a week to prepare and rest up for this specific matchup. The Wolfpack also have triple revenge for two regular season losses to the Tigers last season and a defeat in the ACC Tournament.
|
02-17-24 |
Indiana State -4.5 v. Southern Illinois |
Top |
69-74 |
Loss |
-110 |
18 h 14 m |
Show
|
There hadn't been this much excitement about Indiana State since Larry Bird played for the Sycamores. Unfortunately for the 23rd-ranked Sycamores they are coming off a stunning home upset loss to 12-14 Illinois State this past Tuesday.
Indiana State coach Josh Schertz ripped his team following that defeat calling them soft and lacking toughness.
I'm expecting the Sycamores to be fired-up and to bury Southern Illinois even if Jayson Kent, their leading rebounder, can't play.
Southern Illinois was no match for Indiana State when the teams met earlier this season on Nov. 28. The Sycamores buried the Salukis, 77-48. Southern Illinois ranks 239th in defensive field goal percentage. The Salukis have allowed their past three opponents to shoot at least 50 percent from the field. Indiana State is the third-best shooting team in the country and ranks eighth in points per game at 84.9.
Despite their Top 25 ranking, Indiana State is not a lock to make the NCAA Tournament. The Sycamores lead Drake by just one game in the Missouri Valley Conference.
|
02-17-24 |
Cal-Riverside v. UC-Davis -5 |
|
67-61 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 55 m |
Show
|
UC Davis is the better all-around team. The Aggies are home and in stop-the-pain mode with two straight losses. Cal-Riverside is two things - unable to win on the road and a terrible shooting team. The Highlanders are 1-12 in their away games. They average fewer than 70 points per game and rank 357th in field goal percentage at 39 percent.
|
02-17-24 |
Cincinnati v. UCF UNDER 135.5 |
|
76-74 |
Loss |
-109 |
5 h 23 m |
Show
|
There were only 125 points scored in Cincinnati's, 68-57, home win against UCF on Jan. 27. Expect a similar low-scoring game in this rematch. Both teams surrender fewer than 67 points per game and play at a slow tempo. The Bearcats excel in blocked shots percentage and defensive rebounding. UCF's defensive strength is its interior defense. The Knights are one of the poorest shooting teams in the country. They rank last in the Big 12 in shooting percentage.
|
02-17-24 |
Marquette v. Connecticut -6 |
|
53-81 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 26 m |
Show
|
I don't see top-ranked Connecticut losing to Marquette at home. The Huskies have won 13 in a row and haven't forgotten how Marquette knocked them out of the Big East Conference Tournament last season.
There's not much to nit-pick about Marquette. I just don't trust the Golden Eagles on the road where they have lost to Seton Hall, Providence and Wisconsin.
|
02-16-24 |
Siena v. St. Peter's -9 |
|
53-75 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 48 m |
Show
|
St. Peter's is an 11-11 average team that is in circle-the-wagons mode with a four-game losing streak following a 64-62 home loss to Fairfield, the second-best team in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference. The Peacocks did cover that game, though, as 3 1/2-point 'dogs. Look for the Peacocks to take out their frustrations out at home against a terrible Siena team that is 4-20 overall and 2-15 in its last 17 games.
The Saints hosted St. Peter's on Jan. 28 and lost, 63-52. Siena turned the ball over 19 times in that game. That wasn't anything new. The Saints have the second-worst turnover rate in the nation, average just 60.4 points and shoot 39.9 percent from the floor. St. Peter's ranks 23rd defensively in turnover rate. The Peacocks rank 20th defensively holding foes to 64.6 points per game.
Going by the KenPom rankings, the Peacocks rank 233rd compared to Siena's 358th placement.
|
02-16-24 |
Jacksonville v. Queens NC -1.5 |
|
65-74 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 2 m |
Show
|
Queens is 9-3 at home. Jacksonville is 2-12 in true road games.
The teams met in Jacksonville on Jan. 18 with the home team winning, 79-77. The Dolphins shot 72.6 from the foul line in that game. Queens, by contrast, could make only 21 of 43 free throws for 49 percent. Queens shoots 70.6 percent from the foul line.
So I see Queens getting its revenge in this rematch.
|
02-16-24 |
Brown v. Princeton -12.5 |
Top |
63-72 |
Loss |
-110 |
14 h 7 m |
Show
|
Princeton has the best overall record of any team in the Ivy League at 17-3. Brown has one of the worst records at 6-16 with a 3-9 road mark.
The teams met two games ago on Feb. 3. Princeton beat the Bears, 70-60, covering as seven-point road favorites. The Tigers accomplished that despite a bad shooting game. They shot 44 percent from the floor and 27 percent from 3-point range. The Tigers' season average is 46.3 shooting from the field and 36.1 percent from beyond the arc.
Brown then lost as a 4 1/2-point home favorite to Columbia, 83-69, in its last game. I don't see Brown staying within this number on the road to Princeton. The Bears lost by double-digits to the Tigers at home when Princeton wasn't shooting well.
Princeton is 8-0 at home. The Tigers permit only 64.7 points per game, which ranks 23rd in the nation. The Tigers also are the second-best free throw shooting team in the country making 79.9 percent.
Brown is below par on both sides of the ball. The Bears average just 70 points and could be the worst free throw shooting team in the land making only 64.7 percent.
|
02-15-24 |
NJIT v. Albany OVER 152 |
|
58-83 |
Loss |
-112 |
9 h 1 m |
Show
|
Albany is one of the worst defensive teams in the nation ranking 334th. The Great Danes, though, average 78 points and play high-scoring games at home. All but one of their seven home contests have gone Over the total. The combined total of Albany's last five home games have been 216 points, 187, 173, 170 and 172. New Jersey Tech is a below average defensive team that has problems guarding the 3-point shot.
|
02-15-24 |
Northwestern v. Rutgers -3.5 |
Top |
60-63 |
Loss |
-110 |
17 h 4 m |
Show
|
Big Ten Conference basketball is all about defense and protecting your home floor. Both of these key factors are in play for Rutgers in this matchup.
The Scarlet Knights have won their last three games posting upset victories against Wisconsin at home and road wins against Michigan and Maryland. It's not a coincidence that these three victories have all come since Iowa State transfer Jeremiah Williams became eligible and played in his first three games for Rutgers. Williams sparked the Scarlet Knights to their, 78-56, upset of 11th-ranked Wisconsin this past Saturday by scoring 18 points, dishing off seven assists and grabbing five rebounds.
Williams provides offense and all-around play to the Scarlet Knights, who give up the 28th-fewest points in the nation and rank 13th in defensive field goal percentage.
Northwestern is much better at home than on the road. The Wildcats are 1-5 in their Big Ten away contests.
|
02-14-24 |
Miami-FL +7.5 v. Clemson |
|
60-77 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 5 m |
Show
|
Clemson returns home after posting impressive road victories against North Carolina and Syracuse. But the Tigers haven't played well at home and have had matchup problems against Miami.
Clemson is 2-3 SU, 1-4 ATS in its last five home games. One of those losses was to Georgia Tech as an 11 1/2-point favorite. The Tigers only defeated Louisville by six at home as a 16 1/2-point favorite.
The Tigers are playing their first home game in 11 days. Miami is 1-3 in its last four games, but nearly beat North Carolina at home this past Saturday losing, 75-72. The Hurricanes have defeated Clemson in the last four meetings, including 95-82 on Jan. 3.
|
02-13-24 |
Pittsburgh v. Virginia -6.5 |
|
74-63 |
Loss |
-115 |
8 h 47 m |
Show
|
Pittsburgh upset Virginia when these teams last met last season. The Cavaliers won't let it happen again, especially at home where they are 13-0. Virginia, in fact, has the longest home winning streak in NCAA Division I with 23 straight victories. Pittsburgh is fat and happy riding a three-game win streak. Two of those wins were in a favorite's role against Notre Dame and Wake Forest. The Panthers' 3-point defense is showing signs of regression. That could prove crucial as the Cavaliers' strengths are their third-ranked defense and 15th-ranked 3-point shooting percentage. During the past four weeks, the Cavaliers are the fifth-hottest shooting 3-point team.
|
02-13-24 |
Duquesne v. Dayton -8.5 |
Top |
59-75 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 17 m |
Show
|
You have to go back 12 years to find the last time Duquesne won at Dayton. I don't see the Dukes ending their long road losing streak here against the Flyers.
Dayton is ranked 16th, but coming off an ugly, 49-47, road loss to VCU this past Friday. The Flyers held VCU scoreless during the final 5:57, but still couldn't win because of their cold shooting. This was highly unusual since the Flyers rank seventh in 3-point shooting percentage.
That loss has put Dayton in a bounce back spot, while Duquesne is fat-and-happy after upsetting St. Bonaventure this past Saturday.
The Flyers' DaRon Holmes II leads the Atlantic 10 in scoring at 19.4 points per game. Holmes, though, is off a terrible performance against VCU. I expect the Flyers and Holmes to bounce back strong against Duquesne, which is a well below average shooting team. Dayton gives up the seventh-fewest points in the country at 64.3.
Prior to losing to VCU, the Flyers had gone 16-1 with one of those victories during this span coming against Duquesne, 72-62, on the road on Jan. 12.
|
02-11-24 |
Penn State +8.5 v. Northwestern |
|
63-68 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 42 m |
Show
|
Northwestern is laying too many points here against a hot Penn State team that has won and covered its last three games, beating Rutgers and Indiana on the road and Iowa at home. The Nittany Lions are 5-2 ATS in their last seven home games.
Penn State averages more points per game than Northwestern and has revenge for a 76-72 home loss to the Wildcats from Jan. 10. The Nittany Lions led Northwestern by eight points at halftime during that first meeting. But they finished just 3-of-17 from 3-point range. The Wildcats rank 321st in 3-point defense. Penn State should shoot better from 3-point range against this opponent this time around while it's highly unlikely the Wildcats hit 61 percent of their shots from the floor like they did in the first meeting.
Northwestern could be without guard Ty Berry, who is the Wildcats' fourth-leading scorer and best free throw shooter. He suffered a knee injury in the Wildcats' last game, an 80-68 victory against Nebraska this past Wednesday.
|
02-10-24 |
Providence v. Butler -3.5 |
|
72-75 |
Loss |
-110 |
12 h 47 m |
Show
|
Providence defeated Butler, 85-75, in overtime on Dec. 23. Much has changed since then. Butler is the better team.
The Bulldogs are 4-1 in their last five games with their only defeat in this time frame coming on the road to top-ranked Connecticut. Butler covered as a 14 1/2-point road 'dog in that game, losing, 71-62. The Bulldogs have covered in their last four games.
Providence lost Bryce Hopkins, its third-leading scorer, shortly after beating Butler. The Friars are 4-5 since losing Hopkins. They are off a 91-87 overtime victory against Creighton at home this past Wednesday. But that could cause a letdown in this spot.
|
02-10-24 |
Vanderbilt v. South Carolina -11 |
|
60-75 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 49 m |
Show
|
Before the season, the SEC media picked Vanderbilt to finish 11th in the conference and South Carolina to place last. Vanderbilt has held true to that prediction with a 1-8 SEC mark.
But not South Carolina. The 15th-ranked Gamecocks are tied for first in the conference thanks to a six-game winning streak.
I don't see South Carolina having any trouble hosting Vanderbilt. The Gamecocks hold huge edges on the frontcourt and depth-wise. Vanderbilt is 1-8 in its last nine games with its last six defeats all occurring by 13 or more points.
|
02-10-24 |
Creighton v. Xavier +1.5 |
|
78-71 |
Loss |
-115 |
10 h 27 m |
Show
|
Xavier is playing well and in revenge mode for an 85-78 road loss to Creighton on Jan. 23.
The Musketeers are 6-2 in their last eight games, including winning three in a row. Xavier is 7-1 in its last eight home games with its lone loss during this span coming to top-ranked Connecticut.
Creighton has to get over a tough, 91-87, overtime road loss to Providence this past Wednesday. The Bluejays are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games, including 0-4 ATS during their past four games.
|
02-09-24 |
Dayton -1.5 v. VCU |
Top |
47-49 |
Loss |
-110 |
20 h 6 m |
Show
|
Dayton is 18th-ranked in the country, leads the Atlantic 10 Conference and has won 16 of its last 17 games. But this matchup against VCU holds special meaning for the Flyers.
It's their revenge game of the year. VCU defeated Dayton, 68-56, in the Atlantic 10 title game last season.
VCU is good again this season at 15-8, 7-3 in conference. But 19-3 Dayton is better. The Flyers are a better offensive team than they were when they lost to VCU last season. The Flyers average three points more per game than the Rams and rank fifth in the nation in 3-point accuracy. Dayton's DaRon Holmes II leads the A-10 in scoring at 19.7 points per game.
The oddsmaker agrees that Dayton is the superior team, opening the Flyers a road favorite. I'm going to back Dayton on the money line with the line as short as it is.
|
02-08-24 |
Washington State v. Oregon State +9 |
|
64-58 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 60 m |
Show
|
Forget Oregon State being just 3-8 in the Pac-12 Conference and 11-11 overall. The Beavers are much stronger when playing at home. They are 11-2 at Gill Coliseum. One of the victories was an 83-80 win against then ninth-ranked Arizona on Jan. 25. The Beavers were 18 1/2-point 'dogs in that game. As home underdogs this season, the Beavers are 3-2 SU, 4-1 ATS. Washington is mediocre on the road with a 3-3 SU and ATS mark.
Oregon State gave Washington State a battle in Pullman, Wash., on Jan. 4 losing, 65-58. The Beavers were missing their third-leading scorer, Dexter Akanno, in that game.
|
02-07-24 |
Furman -2.5 v. Mercer |
|
69-78 |
Loss |
-115 |
19 h 16 m |
Show
|
Furman is in better form than Mercer and has too much offense for the Bears to stay close.
The Paladins rank 33rd in the nation in scoring averaging 81.3 points a game. They have scored 82 or more points in five of their past eight games.
Mercer averages 11 points fewer per game than Furman. The Bears also are one of the worst free throw shooting teams in the country making only 65.6 percent. They are 2-6 in their last eight games.
|
02-06-24 |
St. Mary's v. Pacific +21.5 |
|
84-43 |
Loss |
-110 |
14 h 35 m |
Show
|
Saint Mary's probably could name its score. The Gaels did that when these two teams met on Jan. 25. The Gaels embarrassed Pacific, 76-28.
So why back Pacific in the rematch besides the Tigers being at home this time?
The timing. Not only can the Gaels be forgiven if they enter this matchup overconfident, but it's also a huge flat spot for them.
Saint Mary's is off a monster, 64-62, road upset victory against its major rival, Gonzaga, this past Saturday night. It's going to be extremely difficult for the Gaels to get motivated for this matchup.
The Gaels are 18-6 and lead the West Coast Conference with a 9-0 mark. However, they are just mediocre point spread-wise with an 11-11 ATS record.
It's asking a lot for Saint Mary's to cover this large number given the situation and that its offense averages just 72.5 points. The Gaels rank 254th in field goal percentage and 289th in free throw percentage.
|
02-06-24 |
Oklahoma State v. Houston -20 |
Top |
63-79 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 3 m |
Show
|
I want Houston going for me at home after it was smashed, 78-65, by Kansas on the road this past Saturday. That was the Cougars' worst regular-season defeat in two years.
Even giving up 78 points in that game, the Cougars still rank first in the country in fewest points allowed per game at 54 and in defensive efficiency. Oklahoma State is the worst team in the Big 12 Conference. The Cowboys only average 71.1 points, which ranks 259th. They also rank 314th in free throw percentage.
The Cowboys are actually a little fat and happy, though, after upsetting Kansas State at home this past Saturday. That was just their second win in their past nine games.
Texas has a strong record as a big favorite covering 62 percent of the past 104 times when they've been chalk of more than 10 points.
|
02-05-24 |
Kansas v. Kansas State +4.5 |
|
70-75 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 27 m |
Show
|
Fresh off a 78-65 home victory against fourth-ranked Houston, Kansas is looking good. But now the Jayhawks find themselves in a difficult scheduling spot. They have to travel to Kansas State for this in-state, Big 12 Conference rivalry matchup.
Kansas State is at low ebb with four consecutive losses. The Wildcats, though, have played tough competition during this span - road games against Iowa State and Houston and home games vs Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. Kansas State is capable of winning outright. The Wildcats bet LSU and Baylor while losing to Texas Tech on the road by one point.
The Wildcats are 10-2 at home. This is their biggest home game of the season - their Super Bowl.
"The atmosphere we'll play in on Monday will be very comparable to the atmosphere Houston played in today," Kansas coach Bill Self was quoted as saying on Saturday following the Jayhawks' upset win against the Cougars. "We'll have to go over there and play well ..."
|
02-03-24 |
St. Mary's +4.5 v. Gonzaga |
|
64-62 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 8 m |
Show
|
I'm not convinced Gonzaga is better than Saint Mary's so I'm taking these many points. The Bulldogs have fewer wins than Saint Mary's and have battled inconsistency. Saint Mary's is in top form winning 14 of its last 15 games, including nine in a row.
Gonzaga is 0-4 against Quadrant 1 opponents. The Bulldogs are ranked 26th in the NCAA Net Rankings. The Gaels are ranked 21st in the NCAA Net Rankings.
The Gaels give up the third-fewest points in the country at 58.4. Their offense has picked up where they are averaging 78.8 points per game during their last six games.
|
02-03-24 |
Tennessee v. Kentucky +1.5 |
Top |
103-92 |
Loss |
-110 |
20 h 25 m |
Show
|
This is Kentucky's game to win and I see the Wildcats doing just that. Getting any points with the Wildcats is just a bonus.
Kentucky defeated Tennessee in both meetings last season. Kentucky won those games by a combined 19 points. The Wildcats close their regular season at Tennessee. So it is paramount they beat the Volunteers in Lexington, Ky.
Both teams got caught peeking ahead to this marquee matchup in their last game. Kentucky blew a four-point home lead with 20 seconds and lost in overtime to Florida this past Wednesday. That was just the Wildcats' second home loss in 12 home contests. Tennessee looked far worse, though. The Volunteers lost, 63-59, to South Carolina as a 14-point home favorite this past Tuesday. Tennessee is going to have to play far, far better than that to stay competitive against the Wildcats.
The Wildcats own the deeper bench and have a highly-underrated shooting guard in Antonio Reeves. Not only is he an elite defensive player, but he's scored 19 or more points in eight of the last 10 games.
|
02-03-24 |
Weber State +2 v. Northern Colorado |
|
82-63 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 52 m |
Show
|
This is a power ratings play. These teams have similar records, but I have Weber State as the superior team. So I will back the underdog. Weber State ranks 65th in the nation defensively holding foes to 65.2 points per game. That's remarkable for a Big Sky Conference team. Northern Colorado has had some high-scoring games in its last few games, but the Bears have played weak competition during this span. They rank 326th defensively allowing 78.2 points per game.
|
02-03-24 |
Houston v. Kansas +1.5 |
|
65-78 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 55 m |
Show
|
Maybe it's a sucker's play. But I'm not going to turn down Kansas as a home underdog to Houston. The last time the Jayhawks were an underdog in Allen Fieldhouse was 2021 when they rolled past future national champion Baylor, 71-58.
Kansas is 11-0 at home this season. This includes a win and cover against third-ranked Connecticut.
Houston has the top defense in the country, but is 2-2 in its Big 12 road games, 1-3 ATS. One of those conference victories came in overtime against Texas this past Monday. The Cougars are 3-6 ATS in road/neutral site games.
Texas is a terrible free throw shooting team and scores five fewer points per game than Kansas.
|