Retooled Indiana was supposed to be good enough to challenge for the WNBA title this season. Through 13 games, it hasn't gone that way for the 6-7 Fever.

Caitlin Clark is back from injury, but has missed 16 of 17 3-point shots during the past two games. The Fever lost each of those games falling to the expansion Valkyries and the Aces, who are below .500 themselves. Things are not looking up for the Fever as they play their third road game in a row taking on hot Seattle.

The Storm are playing their best ball winning six of their last seven games. Seattle has defeated much better teams than the Fever during this span, including the Lynx and defending champion Liberty although New York was missing two of its three best players in that game, Sabrina Ionescu and Jonquel Jones.

This point spread is too low considering the circumstances. Seattle has won three in a row. The Storm's confidence is up and they are home. Nneka Ogwumike may be the hottest player in the WNBA averaging 25.7 points in her last three games. Skylar Diggins is an elite guard and Gabby Williams is the most underrated player in the league. Opponents get sky high for the Fever because of the presence of Clark and the media attention she brings.

The timing is bad right now for Indiana. Stephanie White was supposed to be a huge coaching upgrade on Christie Sides. White hasn't cleaned that low bar yet. White already has missed a couple of games due to personal reasons. Not a good look with this being her first year coaching the Fever.

Morale is not good for the Fever. Critics are saying White isn't running the right offense for Clark. The Fever was supposed to have upgraded their bench. But core veteran DeWanna Bonner is out for personal reasons and the reserves have been underwhelming during the current road trip.  

Clark and White are proven winners. They likely will get their ship back on the right course. But for now, they can't be backed.

Can the Pacers become only the third team in the last 47 years to win a Game 7 NBA Championship Series on the road?

No.

The marketplace is in love with the Pacers for this Game 7. The oddsmaker opened Oklahoma City minus 9. Many bettors remember what they last saw and that was the Pacers wiping out the Thunder, 108-91, in Game 6.

That game was in Indiana. This one is in Oklahoma City where the Thunder have a home net rating of plus 20.7 in the playoffs. Oklahoma City also is 6-0 following a loss in the postseason. Indiana has not beaten Oklahoma City twice in a row during the series. The Pacers have lost by 11 and 16 points in their last two away games versus the Thunder.

Oklahoma City is the best defensive team in the NBA. No team creates more turnovers than the Thunder. Indiana's most dynamic player, Tyrese Haliburton, is not 100 percent. If the Pacers fall behind, which I expect, they will get desperate with this being Game 7. That could lead to even a larger winning margin for the Thunder.

I'm backing the Pacers knowing they might not have Tyrese Haliburton, or a severely banged-up Haliburton if he does play.

There is one certainty for this Game 6 matchup. The Pacers are home, in must-win mode and will be playing their guts out. Here's another fact, the Thunder are 1-8 ATS on the road during the playoffs. They just are not trustworthy away from Oklahoma City.

Indiana happens to be 3-0 ATS in Game 6's and 3-0 ATS when facing elimination under elite coach Rick Carlisle.  

The Pacers have had the stronger bench and all five of their starters averaged double-digits this season. They have the depth with T.J. McConnell and Andrew Nembhard to compensate for Haliburton's situation. McConnell is playing at a high level averaging 11.2 points, 4.2 assists and two steals a game during 18 minutes of playing time.

Not only is Connecticut 2-9 and arguably the worst team in the WNBA. But the Sun have to play on consecutive days, something extremely rare in the WNBA. 

The Sun have to do this, too, traveling and off a physical, dirty game on the road against Indiana last night. There were multiple technical fouls called in the game and two Connecticut players were ejected, Jacy Sheldon and Lindsay Allen. A third Connecticut player, Marina Mabrey, should have been ejected for shoving Caitlin Clark to the floor.

Tina Charles played a game-high 30 minutes. The 36-year-old Charles is Connecticut's best front-court player. You have to think she could be rested for this matchup.

All in all, it's simply one of the worst spots of the season for one of the worst teams.

Phoenix loaded up during the off-season getting Alyssa Thomas and Satou Sabally to join holdover star Kahleah Cooper, who is back healthy. Thomas and Sabally are among the best dozen players in the league. Thomas should be especially motivated returning to Connecticut having played 11 years for the Sun. 

The Mercury are 8-4, finding their stride with a 5-2 ATS record in their last seven games. They last played on Sunday.

At 5-5, the expansion Valkyries are way ahead of their projected season win total of 8 1/2. Natalie Nakase would get my vote for Coach of the Year if the season ended today.

Unfortunately for Golden State it doesn't.

Things are about to get a lot worse for the Valkyries. That's because EuroBasket 2025 starts Wednesday. Golden State will be missing four of its top seven players because of it. The Valkyries will be missing two of their three best players - Temi Fagbenle, who is competing in EuroBasket, and injured Tiffany Hayes - not to mention losing much of their depth.

The timing for this game couldn't be better for Dallas. The Wings are in dire condition at a league-worst 1-11 after blowing an 11-point lead against the Aces with 3:34 left during their last game, this past Friday.

Dallas is the biggest underachievers in the league. First-year coach Chris Koclanes is coming under heavy fire. This is a true circle-the-wagons game for the Wings.

Dallas has the talent. Paige Bueckers is living up to the high expectations of being the No. 1 overall draft pick and future superstar. She's averaging 17.4 points, 6.1 assists and 1.9 steals per game. Arike Ogunbowale was the MVP of last year's All-Star game. DiJonai Carrington gives the Wings the three best players on the court.

It's not a surprise Phoenix is a road favorite against Las Vegas. The Aces are way down from their championship team of two seasons ago and are without reigning league MVP, A'Ja Wilson. She remains sidelined being in concussion protocol. Wilson's importance can't be stressed enough. She leads the Aces in points (20.9), rebounds (9.6 rebounds) and assists (4.0). She also prevents opponents from driving the lane with her defense and shot-blocking.

The Aces had not been playing well even with Wilson. Their only victory against an above .500 team was against the 6-5 Storm.

Phoenix has the second-best record in the Western Conference at 7-4. The Mercury rank fourth defensively giving up 78.3 points a game. By contrast, the Aces rank ninth defensively permitting 84 points a game and now they don't have Wilson.

The 1-11 Wings, the worst team in the league, put up 84 points against the Aces despite scoring only two points during the final four minutes. The Aces exerted tremendous energy in coming from way behind to beat the Wings at home two days ago. They still could be tired from that game since it was their first full game minus Wilson. Rested Phoenix has been idle since Wednesday.

Not only do the Sparks possess a huge talent edge against the Valkyries, but this also is a good situational spot for Los Angeles. 
Golden State could still be on Cloud 9 after stunning the Aces, 95-68, at home this past Saturday. That was the first-year Valkyries' biggest win in their short existence. 

It also puts the Valkyries in a letdown spot against the revenge-minded Sparks. Los Angeles lost to Golden State, 82-73, as 10 1/2-point home favorites on May 23. 

There isn't one player on expansion Golden State that I would rank above LA's top five players - Kelsey Plum, Dearica Hamby, Azura Stevens, Rickea Jackson and Odyssey Sims. Those players have made LA the No. 1 scoring team in the WNBA at 93.3 points a game. That's 16.3 points per game more than what the Valkyries average.

Unlike what this inflated point spread may indicate, this Game 1 moment isn't too big for the Pacers. It wouldn't even shock me if the Pacers stole this road game. 

The Pacers have four strong things going for them: They are the most accurate 3-point shooting percentage team in the postseason hitting at a 40.1 percent clip. They take care of the ball ranking third in turnover rate, which is where they finished during the regular season, and they are extremely well coached by Rick Carlisle. That results in the fourth factor, a tremendous point spread mark.

Indiana has covered 11 of its 16 playoff games for 69 percent! This includes a 6-1 ATS record during their past seven road games. When it comes to Game 1's, the Pacers are 3-0 with victories against the Bucks and straight-up road wins against the Cavaliers and Knicks as underdogs. 

The situation also is good for the underdog. Indiana last played on Friday. So the Pacers have had a good rest and the dangerous Carlisle has had ample time to draw up a solid game plan. The Pacers were 7-1 SU and ATS when they played this season with at least three days of rest. 

On the other hand, Oklahoma City has been idle for eight days. That's too long. It adds an extra element of randomness into the equation. Randomness is good for a large underdog. 

By the way, the Thunder had nine days off before they played the Nuggets after opening their postseason with a sweep of the Grizzlies. The Thunder were 10 1/2-point home favorites and lost that Game 1 to the Nuggets straight-up.

Since losing superstar Caitlin Clark to a quad strain, Indiana has gone 0-2. The Fever lost to Washington, 83-77, as a four-point road favorite last Wednesday and then was humbled by Connecticut - the worst team in the WNBA - with an 85-83 loss as a double-digit home favorite last Friday.

The Fever had veteran guards Sophie Cunningham and Sydney Colson when they lost to the Mystics last week. Now those two aren't expected to play because of injuries joining Clark on the sidelines. It leaves the Fever so thin at guard that they had to apply to the league to get an emergency hardship in order to sign guard Aari McDonald.

So not are the Fever going to be missing Clark and her across the board production and leadership - 19 points a game, 9.3 assists, 6.0 rebounds, 1.3 steals and 31.4 percent shooting from 3-point range - but they are down to their fourth-string point guard.

Washington is not a patsy. The Mystics tied for the best point spread record in the league last year at 25-14-1 (64 percent) and has a winning point spread record this season. They have the best guard on the court by far with Clark out in Brittney Sykes and a pair of rookie-of-the-year candidates, Sonia Citron and Kiki Iriafen.

The Mystics are physical and they like to run. The Fever are going to have problems staying with them minus Clark.

The Fever are a frustrated bunch. Caitlin Clark is out with an injury and the Fever just suffered an upset road loss to the Mystics this past Wednesday. 
I look for the Fever at home to take their frustrations out on the perfect patsy, Connecticut. 

This isn't the successful Sun team of the two previous seasons that reached the conference semifinals each of those years under Stephanie White. The Sun are in total rebuild with a first-year coach and all new starters. They are the worst team in the WNBA at 0-5, 1-4 ATS. 

White is now Indiana's head coach. Worse for the Sun is they are banged-up especially in the backcourt where their second-leading scorer and assists leader, Marina Mabrey, is questionable and Lindsay Allen is out. Frontcourt player, Olivia Nelson-Ododa, is questionable, too. She's Connecticut's third-leading scorer and second-best rebounder. 

The Fever desperately want to prove they are far more than just Caitlin Clark. This is their golden opportunity to show that.

The Knicks stole a couple of games from the Celtics then caught a break when Jayson Tatum got hurt. The Knicks weren't better than the Celtics and they aren't better than Indiana. Sure New York has been somewhat magical. But I don't see them coming back from 3-1 down in this Eastern Conference series. A team hasn't done that in the East since 1981.

Since I regard the Pacers as the superior team, I'm backing them as an underdog in this Game 5.

The game is at Madison Square Garden. But getting this many points with the Pacers is well worth them being the away team and fading the zig/zag theory. Indiana has won and covered each of its last six road playoff games.

The deeper the series goes the more Indiana has the advantage. I say this because the Pacers have the better depth and coach. Not helping matters for the Knicks is that Karl-Anthony Towns also could be limited due to a knee injury.

Even though Jalen Brunson has emerged a superstar during the postseason, the Pacers' starters have been superior to New York's. The Pacers are quicker and more explosive. They've forced the Knicks to commit an uncharacteristic 15 turnovers per game in the series. Tyrese Haliburton has negated Brunson's dominance by his speed and all-around skill set.

Yes, Oklahoma City is the superior team and playing at home. But the tax to back the Thunder is way too high, especially given Minnesota is facing elimination. The Timberwolves have covered the past two games losing by only two points and winning by 42 points.

Since Feb. 13, the Timberwolves only have been an underdog of eight or more points three times. All were against the Thunder. Minnesota covered all three of those games, winning two straight-up.

The Timberwolves are 5-2 ATS, 4-3 SU when facing an elimination game under Chris Finch. 

Anthony Edwards and Julius Randle, Minnesota's two best players, made 21 of 32 shots for a combined 54 points in Game 3. The pair, however, were only 6-of-20 from the floor for 21 points in Game 4. They probably won't be as hot as they were in Game 3, but certainly should be better than their Game 4 performance. Even with those two shooting so poorly, the Timberwolves only lost by two points. That bodes well for the Timberwolves staying within the number here.

Now that the Timberwolves got their bad game out of the way, I'm expecting a much better performance from them in Game 2 of this Western Conference Finals. 

One of the keys is the open looks were there for the Timberwolves. They just couldn't connect, especially key reserves Naz Reid and Donte DiVincenzo. Those two were a miserable 4-for-25 combined from the field. 

Minnesota also didn't do a good job of setting up Anthony Edwards. He attempted only 13 field goals, his second-fewest shots in 38 career playoff games. Julius Randle was his steady reliable self, though. Randle scored 28 points on 9-of-13 shooting from the floor. He's averaging 24.3 points in 11 playoff games this season hitting 52.3 percent from the floor and 39.3 percent from 3-point range. So the Thunder just can't key on Edwards. 

Oklahoma City can't but feel relaxed and perhaps overconfident after winning Game 1 by 26 points. The Timberwolves have to feel humbled and highly motivated to redeem their honor. 

The Thunder is 1-4 ATS the past five times following a win. Minnesota has won eight of its 11 playoff games. The Timberwolves are 2-0 SU and ATS following each of their previous postseason losses. They covered six of eight playoff games as a road underdog last season. Minnesota also went 11-6 for 65 percent as a road 'dog during the regular season.

The last time the Timberwolves lost two in a row by more than seven points, was way back on Dec. 21 and Dec. 23. That's a span of 65 games!

Judging by the series price and Game 1 point spread it seems preordained that the Thunder are going to roll past the Timberwolves in this Western Conference Finals series.

Oklahoma City deserves to be favored. Just not by such inflated prices. The Thunder are especially vulnerable in Tuesday's Game 1 having just eliminated the Nuggets in Game 7 this past Sunday.

Minnesota, meanwhile, took care of business last Wednesday. The Timberwolves have had six days of rest and preparation for this series opener.

But it's not just the situation why I believe the Timberwolves will cover - if not beat the Thunder straight-up on Tuesday. People that should know better are sleeping on the Timberwolves.

Anthony Edwards is blossoming into a superstar. He's averaging 26.5 points in the playoffs. Jaden McDaniels is becoming one of the best two-way players and Julius Randle is playing the finest basketball of his life, which is a high bar. The Timberwolves are 30-6 in Randle's last 36 games.

Oklahoma City hasn't been in the position it is now, expected to win not only this series but its first championship. Minnesota has never won an NBA championship either. But the pressure is on the Thunder, not the Timberwolves.

While the Thunder had to labor seven games to take care of the Nuggets, the Timberwolves took out the Lakers in five games and then won four straight against the Warriors after losing the series opener.

The Storm are a good team. Not elite, but above average with plenty of star power and experience.

I'm not so sure about Phoenix. The Mercury have a big three of Alyssa Thomas, Satou Sabally and Kahleah Cooper, but lack depth and backcourt experience.

It's a good time to play Phoenix right now. That's because Cooper is out with a knee injury. The Mercury are thin in the backcourt and the team is going through an adjustment period as Thomas and Sabally are new to Phoenix. It's a new look for the Mercury as Diana Taurasi retired after 20 seasons with the team and Brittney Griner left Phoenix in free agency after 11 years.

Judging by an 0-2 preseason, including a loss to the expansion Valkyries, the Mercury have yet to develop any chemistry.

So I don't see the Mercury ready yet to beat a borderline top-five team.

There's a reason why the Thunder are a road favorite against the Nuggets. They are the superior team. I look for the Thunder to close out Denver in Thursday's Game 6 Western Conference semifinal.

What gives me the confidence to say that is the Thunder are better defensively, have a much stronger bench, have less fatigue and their confidence and savvy has grown as the series has progressed. Oklahoma City has won the last two games in the series by poise and execution.

"We're a better team today than we were at the beginning of the series," Oklahoma City coach Mark Daigneault was quoted as saying. "We're definitely evolving and growing and learning."

The Thunder were the best team in the NBA entering the series - and are even better now.

Denver is wearing down as the series progresses. Interim Nuggets coach David Adelman had three players logging at least 42 minutes during Tuesday's Game 5. Aaron Gordon played 37 minutes. Michael Porter Jr.'s shooting is off because of an injured left shoulder.

By contrast, the Thunder had only Shai Gilgeous-Alexander play more than 38 minutes on Tuesday.

The Nuggets primarily have used just seven players. The fatigue factor weighs heavy on them. Oklahoma City is the fresher team. That's another key reason why I favor the Thunder to close out the series here.

Returning home after a season-long 10-game road trip, the Dodgers were ambushed by the A's, 11-1, on Tuesday night.

Situational handicapping isn't nearly so strong in baseball as in other sports, but I have to believe the Dodgers will be serious about this game after having their pride stung. LA is 15-4 at home.

LA has its best pitcher going, Yoshinobu Yamamoto. He might be the best pitcher in the entire National League. Yamamoto has a 1.80 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. Yet Yamamoto also had his pride pricked during his last start. It came against the Diamondbacks in a loss last Thursday when he gave up five runs in five innings, easily his worst outing of the season.

Rookie Gunnar Hoglund is set to make his third big league start for the A's. He is 1-0 with a 2.38 ERA. Hoglund has pitched well, but is stepping way up having accomplished those numbers versus the Marlins and Mariners. The Dodgers are first in the majors in batting average, second in homers and OPS and fourth in runs. Hoglund is not considered to be an elite prospect.

The A's bullpen has not been good, especially during the last 10 days where their ERA is 8.24. The Dodgers' bullpen, by contrast, has a 3.57 ERA during this time frame.

The absence of superstar Jayson Tatum and the continued poor coaching of Joe Mazzulla very well could mean the playoff outster of the Celtics to the Knicks. But I don't see that happening in Wednesday's Game 5 in Boston.

The Celtics are going to be super motivated with tremendous resolve to win this game having suffered three collapses in this series to the Knicks, a team they are superior to. The obvious question is just how much better are the Celtics to the Knicks without Tatum?

Given the circumstances - step-up situation, being home and with the season on the line - I envision Boston playing with fire and brimstone that results in a blowout victory.

The Celtics won 71 percent of the time with Tatum. They are 8-2 (80 percent) without him. So the Celtics actually have a higher winning percentage when they were missing Tatum. All of those victories without Tatum were by at least six points, too.

The Celtics restored some sanity to the NBA playoffs with their road blowout victory against the Knicks on Saturday. Now I'm expecting the same from the Thunder against the Nuggets in the Western Conference.

Denver leads this series, 2-1. But Oklahoma City is the superior team. The Thunder have led 82 percent of the time during this series. Not only are the Thunder a top-notch scoring team with better athletes and a deeper bench than Denver, but they are far better defensively than the Nuggets.

Oklahoma City has held Nikola Jokic to 14-of-41 shooting (34 percent) from the floor and forced him to commit 14 turnovers during the past two games. 

Credit to the Nuggets for managing a series lead despite being more banged-up than Oklahoma City and having an interim coach. But a return to normalcy is set to take place Sunday in Denver. 

The Thunder are an ascending team. They were the best during the regular season - and nothing has changed my mind that they still aren't the best. A Thunder blowout would not surprise me. It happened two games ago when Oklahoma City whipped Denver by a whopping 43 points.

Denver suffered a 34-point blowout loss to the Clippers in their opening series round, which went a grueling seven games. The Nuggets suffered two blowout losses - by 26 and 45 points - to the Timberwolves in the playoffs last season. The Timberwolves eliminated the Nuggets in that series last year. The Thunder are better than that Timberwolves team.

What are the chances of the Celtics blowing two 20-point leads at home?

What are the chances of the Celtics missing 75 of 100 3-point shots in those games?

What are the chances of Jayson Tatum missing 30 of 42 shots in those games?

I can't begin to calculate the odds of all that happening. I just know no NBA team had lost consecutive home playoff games after being up by 20 points in each game. Until now.

The Knicks are riding a lot of house money as they come home to what's going to be a raucous and crazy Madison Square Garden. But, know this, defending world champion Boston is and remains the superior team.

The Celtics certainly aren't going to lack incentive and focus. They shot 36.8 percent from 3-point range during the season, 10th-best in the league. Tatum made 45.2 percent of his shots during the season, not the 29 percent he's shooting during this series.

Boston had a better road record than a home mark going 33-8. The Celtics have a deeper bench, are healthy and have more star power.

I don't believe it's a leap of faith for Boston to show a strong positive regression in this Game 3.

Stung by the Nuggets stealing Game 1, the Thunder buried Denver, 149-106, in Game 2 of their series this past Wednesday. 
I'm going against the zig-zag theory here and backing the Thunder to soundly defeat Denver again. 

It's not a fluke that Oklahoma City was 18 games better than Denver during the regular season. The Thunder are deeper and superior defensively. Oklahoma City also is faster. The Thunder averaged 120.5 points a game. Denver, which relies on its offense, averaged two more points per game than Oklahoma City, but gave up 11 points more per game than the Thunder. 

Denver is heavily reliant on Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray. The Thunder has the antidote for Murray in defensive whiz Lu Dort. Oklahoma City figured out the right strategy to bottle up Jokic in its 43-point Game 2 victory - swarming him while playing pressure defense the entire time without a letup. The Thunder have the youth and depth to do this. Oh, yes, the Thunder have their own legitimate league MVP in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. 

The Thunder have covered 22 of the last 30 times they've been favored. That's 73 percent. The Thunder are a level higher than Denver and they are proven point spread winners. A change of venue isn't going to change that except to lower the point spread making the bar easier for the Thunder to cover another game.

Certainly Golden State deserves a lot of credit for its upset of the Timberwolves in Game 1 of this series two days ago. But the Timberwolves sure came out rusty after a five-day layoff following their first-round series win against the Lakers. 

Now the Warriors are looking at a highly-motivated Timberwolves squad that doesn't want to be trailing 2-0 heading to Golden State if they were to lose this game. The Warriors also are temporarily looking at life without Stephen Curry. He's out with a hamstring injury. 

Minnesota shot 17 percent from 3-point range against the Warriors on Tuesday hitting on just 5-of-29 from beyond the arc. The Timberwolves ranked fourth in the NBA in 3-point percentage during the regular season at 37.7 percent.

Stephen Curry and Jimmy Butler showed Sunday that you can never fully count the Warriors out. But the Warriors aren't the better team against the Timberwolves and they are at a severe situational disadvantage.

Minnesota has arguably emerged as a top-five team during the past 5 1/2 months. Anthony Edwards gives the Timberwolves their own superstar.

Golden State had to dig deep - physically and mentally - to upset the Rockets on the road in Sunday's Game 7. The Warriors also got an unlikely 33 points from Buddy Hield, who made a staggering 9 of 11 3-point shots and missed only three of 15 field goal attempts.

People were ripping the Lakers for losing their first-round series to the Timberwolves. That outcome wasn't surprising, though. Minnesota is the superior team.

Now the Timberwolves are in a great spot having been idle since eliminating LA last Wednesday.

Situation matters when it comes to the NBA. And this one sets up great for Oklahoma City.

The Thunder last played nine days ago after sweeping the Grizzlies. Superstar Shai Gilgeous-Alexander didn't even play up to his lofty standards during the series yet Oklahoma City still won the series, 4-0.

Denver has gotten exactly one day of rest after getting past the Clippers in a grueling seven-game series that ended Saturday night.

The Thunder have the best record in the NBA at 72-14 counting the playoffs. They had the best point spread record during the regular season, too, at 55-23-4 for a phenomenal 71 percent. Oklahoma City is home and has a huge situational edge.

That spells a double-digit victory in my book.

The Warriors would very much like to close the Rockets out at home today leading 3-2 in this best-of-seven series rather than go to a seventh and deciding game, which would be in Houston on Sunday. 

But what the Warriors would like and can do are two different things. 

Yes, Golden State has far more playoff experience than Houston. The Warriors also have two proven superstars, Stephen Curry and Jimmy Butler. The Rockets can't match the reliability of those two.

Houston, though, has edges the Warriors lack. The Rockets have more overall talent, are younger and the superior rebounding and defensive team. Houston has had a fourth quarter lead in each of its playoff losses to Golden State.

Golden State is ahead in the series because of its veteran savvy. The Rockets, however, have chipped away at that as this series has gone deeper. The Rockets have their confidence up after building a 29-point third quarter lead this past Wednesday in coasting to a 131-116 Game 5 victory. 
The Rockets picked up the pace and applied relentless defensive pressure. Those tactics worked. 

"It feels like we're getting more consistent recognition of what they're doing throughout the series as it goes on," Rockets coach Ime Udoka said following his team's Game 5 victory. "Trying to wear them down and taking away certain actions, and we did that. Try to make them make plays and not run their plays. If they have to beat us one-one, we feel that's to our advantage."

Houston has its confidence and blueprint. The Rockets aren't intimidated anymore being in the playoffs with the Warriors. They are a rising power. Maybe it's not their time quite yet, but I'll take this many points to find that out.

The Rockets' young talent is obvious. But playoff inexperience, Golden State's veteran savvy and missed free throws have resulted in the Rockets being down 3-1 in their first-round playoff series against Golden State.

Now the Warriors look to close out the series with a road victory today. I don't see them doing it. Not at Houston.

The Rockets' one win in this series came at home in blowout fashion, 109-94, in Game 2. Houston is 30-12 at home. 

The Warriors have proven superstars with Stephen Curry and Jimmy Butler. But Golden State also has far more age. This is their third game in five days and Houston is desperate. The oddsmaker made the Rockets the favorite and I fully agree. 

This is what Curry had to say about this game, "You understand closeout games are extremely difficult because of desperation from the other side. Try to do it on the road is even more challenging." 
The Rockets have the talent to match Golden State with Alperen Sengun, Jalen Green, Amen Thompson and Tari Eason. Houston has had fourth-quarter leads in its losses. The Rockets are the superior rebounding team. Their confidence and poise will be much better at home.

The record shows the Stars had a better regular season record than the Avalanche and Dallas leads this series, 2-1.

But I don't believe the Stars are superior to Colorado. Dallas has only led Colorado for fewer than two minutes during the series, yet is up two games to one because of a pair of overtime victories the past two games. The last coming three day ago, 2-1, in Colorado.

What was notable about that game was the return of Gabriel Landeskog. He played for the first time in nearly three years and looked comfortable playing on the Av's third line. The Avalanche plan on moving Landeskog to the second line tonight and use him on their power play.

The Avalanche ranked higher than the Stars in expected goals percentage and now they have Landeskog, an offensive force and spark, to go with superstars Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar.

Jake Oettinger has not been playing well for Dallas, giving up at least four goals in four of his past six starts. During this span, he has an .879 save percentage and 3.64 goals against average.

I see this as a kill spot for Colorado at home where the Avalanche take out their bad luck and frustrations on the Stars.

I had the Warriors to beat the Rockets in Game 1 - and felt lucky to win even though the final score was Golden State, 95-85. 

The Rockets grabbed 16 more offensive rebounds than the Warriors and had numerous missed open 3-point shots. 

The Rockets' youth showed in that first playoff game. Still, the Rockets could have cut the Warriors' lead to two points with less than five minutes left if Stephen Curry didn't hit a long 3-point desperation heave that took the pressure off by putting the Warriors ahead by seven points. 

Golden State shot 47.4 percent from the floor. The Rockets got off 11 more shots than the Warriors, but made only 39.1 percent of their field goal attempts. 

Expect an all-out effort by the Rockets knowing they can't go down 0-2 in the series at home. Their young, but highly-talented players, should be more comfortable and less rusty in Game 2. Houston also should make a much higher percentage of its offensive rebounds and open shots resulting from kick-outs. 

I see that happening.

The Rockets were four games better than the Warriors during the regular season. Houston is the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference. Golden State is seventh-seeded.

Pay no attention to that, though.

It's misleading and doesn't mean anything now.

The Rockets have been idle for a week. They are rusty and lack Golden State's playoff experience having last made the postseason in 2020, the Covid year when the playoffs were held in the bubble in Orlando.

The Warriors played at a 61-win pace during their last 31 games going 23-8 transformed by a resurgent Jimmy Butler. They defeated the Grizzlies this past Tuesday in a play-in game to reach this point.

Houston coasted into the playoffs, losing its last three games by an average of 21 points. The Rockets are young lacking the proven stars the Warriors have with Stephen Curry, Butler and Draymond Green.

It's going to be difficult for the Rockets to reach full intensity having been idle since last Sunday and not caring during the last week of the regular season. The Warriors won't have that problem. They'll be ready.

The Wild halted a four-game losing streak and greatly aided their chances of holding on to the final playoff spot in the Western Conference by upsetting the Stars in overtime at home this past Sunday. 

Minnesota hasn't played since. The Wild don't want to give that important victory back by losing to the lowly Sharks, who have the worst record in the Western Conference and have lost six in a row. 

The Wild have defeated the Sharks six consecutive times. That includes a 2-0 record this season with each win coming by more than one goal. 
San Jose only has scored 10 goals in its last six games. If the Sharks can't find the net, they are in big trouble as they have the worst defense in the NHL allowing an average of 3.7 goals a game. 

The Wild are not a dynamic team. But they've had ample rest and should take care of business while the Sharks hit the road for the first time in eight days.

As much as I like and respect Florida, Houston's tenacity and elite defense has me going with the Cougars. 

Houston held the Blue Devils to 40 percent shooting from the floor and only one field goal during the final 10:30 of its dramatic Final Four, 70-67, comeback victory this past Saturday.  Duke averaged 82.7 points and 48.8 percent shooting during the season. Both top-18 marks. 

 Duke averaged 91.7 points during its previous four games before meeting Houston. To be honest, I thought Duke was going to win the NCAA Tournament. 

The Cougars are the best defensive team in the country. Their offense can look a little disjointed at times, but they ranked No. 2 in the country in 3-point percentage. The Cougars also are a strong rebounding team. They have the Big 12 defensive player of the year, Joseph Tugler. He's 6-foot-8 with a wingspan of a 7-foot-6 player. Tugler has 77 blocks, including four against Duke.

Kelvin Sampson is a Hall of Fame coach, a tremendous defensive tactician. 

Nothing against Florida, but I'm going with Houston since I give the Cougars checkmarks in defense, coaching and 3-point shooting. I can't see them not winning the title after their unbelievable semifinal victory against Duke.

NBA Bonus Play

Pistons minus 7 1/2 hosting Kings

Detroit has been special all season in qualifying for the playoffs for the first time since 2019. The spot here sets up for the Pistons to crush the visiting Kings.

The Pistons are off a home loss to the Grizzlies from this past Saturday. They did get their superstar, Cade Cunningham, back for that game, though, after Cunningham had missed the previous six games with a calf strain. Detroit is 1-3 in its last four games. The Pistons won't lack motivation. The last time they had a 1-4 run was back in early December.

The Kings are off a huge road upset win against the Cavaliers last night. All five of Sacramento's starters logged at least 40 minutes in that victory. This is the finale of a six-game, 10-day road trip for the Kings and their fourth game in six days. That's a rough stretch, especially this late in the season.

I don't see anything left in the Kings' tank for this one.

Behold the largest Eastern Conference point spread of the season. Sure the Celtics probably could name their score here at home against the Wizards, but I don't see them being very motivated. Boston also doesn't have a good track record in this point spread range, failing to cover 13 of the last 18 times (28 percent) as double-digit favorites.  

The Celtics took their frustrations out on Phoenix after their nine-game win streak was halted by the Heat this past Wednesday. Boston buried the Suns, 123-103, in its following game this past Friday.

Boston knows it's locked into the No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference being eight games of the third-place Knicks, but trailing first-place Cleveland by five games with five regular season games left. The Celitcs travel to Madison Square Garden to meet the Knicks on Tuesday in their next game.

Only twice in their last 28 games, have the Wizards lost by more than 20 points. Washington has many young players. They'll want to show their best against the defending world champions.

Checkmark to Houston on defense. Duke, however, is the more complete team, has a size advantage and superstar Cooper Flagg. Those are reasons enough to justify laying these points with the Blue Devils.

Duke has a size advantage in the backcourt - pivotal because Houston relies on its perimeter shooting - and has 7-footer Khaman Maluach inside to dominate both ends in the paint.

The Blue Devils' size was a key in holding Alabama to 65 points in an 85-65 win during their last game. Alabama was the No. 1 scoring team in the nation averaging 91.1 points. Houston averages 17 points fewer per game than Alabama.

I don't see the Cougars being able to keep up with Duke in the scoring column. Not only do the Blue Devils have the magnificent Flagg, but also Tyrese Proctor and a strong bench. Unlike Houston, Duke is equally proficient scoring both inside and outside.

The Timberwolves' dramatic, 140-139, last-second two overtime road victory against the Nuggets this past Tuesday night was one of the best games of the NBA season.

Denver followed up that game with an upset home loss to the Spurs last night, although Nikola Jokic sat out.

While I don't expect the Nets to beat Minnesota straight-up, I do believe this is an excellent ambush spot for Brooklyn to throw a scare into the Timberwolves, who have to be feeling great about themselves pulling out a win against the Nuggets. Minnesota defeated Denver when Russell Westbrook missed a layup near the end of the game and Nickeil Alexander-Walker was fouled with one-tenth of a second left. Alexander-Walker's two free throws accounted for Minnesota's final victory margin.

That win put the Timberwolves into a tie for the sixth and final guaranteed playoff spot in the West. You can't fault the Timberwolves if they suffer a letdown here facing the Nets, who are 26 games below .500.

Still, this is a second straight road game and a time change for the Timberwolves. The Nets are pesky. They actually have been quite good point spread-wise covering nine of their last 13 games. The Nets also are the more rested team having been idle since Monday.

This is one of those rare, if any, times I'm going against Oklahoma City being fully aware the Thunder are riding a nine-game win streak and have the best point spread mark in the NBA. 

Actually, it's not so much I'm going against the Thunder, but rather taking value on the Bulls, who are below-the-surface. 

Chicago is 9-3 in its last dozen games, 10-2 ATS. If it weren't for a one-point loss to the Mavericks, the Bulls would be on a five-game win streak. 

This is a good test for the Bulls to find out just how competitive they are. I'll back them, given how well they have been playing, at what I see is an inflated point spread.

Michigan State has reached the Sweet 16, but the Spartans haven't played their best. They are due for a big game. I see that coming here against a Mississippi team they match up well to.

Mississippi has pulled off upset victories against Iowa State and North Carolina to reach this point. The Rebels are extremely well-coached like the Spartans are. Mississippi is not a strong rebounding team, though, ranking 15th out of 16 teams in the SEC. Michigan State, by contrast, was the No. 2 rebounding team in the Big Ten and eighth in the nation in offensive rebounding.

The Rebels hit 49 percent of their 3-point shots against the Tar Heels and Cyclones going an amazing 19-for-39. That is uncharacteristic of Mississippi. The Rebels are not nearly that good of a 3-point shooting team. They ranked 173rd in 3-point accuracy during the regular season hitting 34.1 percent. Michigan State has the toughest 3-point defense in the country ranking No. 1.

The combination of Michigan State's 3-point defense and rebounding should be enough to derail the Rebels and allow the Spartans to cover this point spread margin. Michigan State is due for a better performance while the Rebels are overdue to cool off from beyond the arc, especially playing this opponent.

Alabama-Birmingham is an underdog worth backing. Not only do the Blazers play in the stronger American Athletic Conference compared to Cal-Irvine, which is in the weak Big West Conference, but Alabama-Birmingham has proved itself on the road.

The Blazers have scored road upset victories against Santa Clara as a 7-point 'dog and against St. Joe's getting six points. Cal Irvine wasn't impressive in beating but failing to cover against Jacksonville State at home, 66-61, in its last NIT game. 

UAB also has the best player on the court in 6-foot-9 Yaxel Lendeborg. He averages 17.8 points, 11.2 rebounds, 4.3 assists, 1.8 steals and 1.8 blocked shots. He owns the school record for double-doubles. 

The Blazers play fast and are explosive. They are 16th in the nation in scoring at 82.6 points per game. Being on the road hasn't changed this as the Blazers rank 15th in the country in points per possession when playing away. 

Cal Irvine averages nearly seven points fewer per game than UAB, but features the superior defense. Some of that, though, comes from playing in the smallish Big West. UAB has been playing better defense late in winning and covering four of their five postseason games. 

UAB holds a rebounding edge. The Blazers rank in the top-20 in offensive rebounding. Going against UAB is going to prove a real contrast for Cal Irvine. 

The Blazers have enough going to pull the outright upset.

Washington is 15-55 after losing by 19 points to the Knicks on the road this past Saturday. 

Yet Washington opened as the favorite because Toronto is 24-47 and looked terrible in losing, 123-89, to the Spurs on Sunday. The Raptors were playing at home for the first time since returning from a four-game West Coast trip. 

"...We have to be much better, and I expect us to be much better tomorrow (Monday)," Raptors coach Darko Rajakovic said following his team's no-show against the Spurs.

The Raptors are better than Washington and should be motivated. Only the Thunder and Cavaliers have a better point spread record than the Raptors, who are 42-28-1 for 60 percent.

Of the many great teams in the SEC this season, Mississippi is one of the least flashy. The Rebels don't get talked about much. Certainly not like Auburn, Florida, Alabama, Tennessee and Kentucky. 

But this doesn't mean the Rebels aren't dangerous. They have the right mix and coaching to pull the upset against Iowa State. 

Mississippi is a semi-rarity these days for an NCAA Tournament team - a veteran starting lineup consisting of four seniors and a junior. They have leadership, poise and an elite coach in Chris Beard. 

I also believe Iowa State's coach, T.J. Otzelberger, is elite. The Cyclones, though, are the ones laying mid-range points and missing a key injured player in guard Keshon Gibert. He is Iowa State's second-leading scorer at 13.4 points a game and is the team leader in assists. 

The Cyclones were able to easily triumph against Lipscomb in their first-round NCAA Tournament game. Mississippi has better athletes than Lipscomb and can exploit Gilbert's absence with a more swarming defensive style. 

Mississippi's strength is forcing turnovers while ranking in the top-15 in committing the fewest turnovers. That's a winning combination against this opponent.

It's been an up-and-down season for Connecticut. But if the two-time defending champion Huskies are going to get eliminated from the NCAA Tournament, it's going to come from Florida not Oklahoma. 

The Huskies have won and covered their past 12 NCAA Tournament games. Look for that impressive streak to continue against the Sooners, who may be without center Sam Godwin. He's missed the last three games because of a knee injury.

Even with Godwin, the Sooners can't rebound with Connecticut. The Huskies hold a defensive and depth edge, too. 

Connecticut ranks 60th defensively and is the No. 2 defensive rebounding team. Oklahoma rates 269th defensively and is 324th in offensive rebounding. 

The Huskies are healthy, too, unlike the Sooners. 

Connecticut is the more well-rounded team with big edges on defense and on the boards. I'm not going against the Huskies against this opponent.

Cleveland is in danger of losing three in a row for just the second time all season. I don't see that happening here, though.

Following a 16-game win streak, the Cavaliers were upset at home by the Magic and then embarrassed by the Clippers, 132-119, on the road last night. LA made 54.8 percent of its field goal attempts against Cleveland.

Cavaliers coach Kenny Atkinson called out his team following that poor defensive performance citing lack of discipline.

So I'm banking on a strong, motivated effort from the Cavaliers.

The Kings have won 22 fewer games than Cleveland. The Cavaliers are an elite team. Sacramento is a borderline playoff team that had dropped four in a row before defeating the Grizzlies, 132-122, at home two days ago. That victory was costly as the Kings lost their best rebounder and defender, Domantas Sabonis, to an ankle injury.

Cleveland has the No. 2 scoring offense in the NBA. The Cavaliers rank first in 3-point accuracy. The Kings rank last in 3-point defense and now won't have Sabonis.

Motivation is a huge factor when handicapping first-round NIT games. Samford has it for this matchup. George Mason doesn't.

George Mason went 26-8, including 15-3 in the Atlantic-10 Conference. Yet the Patriots couldn't get a spot in the NCAA Tournament because they lost, 68-63, to VCU in the Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament finals this past Sunday.

This was a highly-disappointing loss for the Patriots. I don't see them bouncing back on such a short turnaround. The Patriots aren't built to cover big margins either with their extreme slowdown style. They are 0-4 ATS the past four times when laying more than four points.

Samford, on the other hand, is excited to compete having never participated in the NIT before. The Bulldogs want to prove themselves after getting upset by Furman in the quarterfinals of the Southern Conference Tournament.

The Bulldogs aren't nearly as good defensively as George Mason. But they have other factors going for them. Samford ranks 12th in the nation in scoring, averaging 13 more points per game than George Mason. The Bulldogs are an excellent 3-point shooting team and are patient, ranking 29th in the country in assists per game. That's important when going against George Mason's vaunted defense and slow tempo.

So sure their season had ended, some of the Shockers left Wichita State for spring break following the team's quarterfinals loss in the American Athletic Conference Tournament this past Friday.

It was a surprise then for Wichita State when it found out it had made the 32-team NIT field. Now the Shockers have to travel to Stillwater, Okla., to face Oklahoma State. 

This is Wichita State's first postseason appearance in four years. I don't believe the Shockers are ready for the challenge having already thought their season had ended.

Making it worse for the Shockers is Oklahoma State plays at an extremely fast tempo. The Cowboys aren't going to lack motivation having missed out on the postseason last season and being knocked out in the first round of the Big 12 Conference Tournament. 

The Big 12 is superior to the AAC. Wichita State didn't encounter too many up-tempo teams in the ACC. Now the Shockers are on the road against a well-coached aggressive foe that loves to full-court press and plays at a top-15 pace. 

So I don't see the Shockers staying within this number.

Love the way Maryland is playing defense. But I'm not so in love with the depth of the Terrapins. However, the Terrapins only had two players log 35 minutes in yesterday's blowout victory against Illinois.

Maryland held the high-scoring Illini to 65 points. The Terrapins have now held their last five opponents to an average of 62.6 points a game.

The teams just met 10 days ago at Michigan and the Terrapins defeated the Wolverines, 71-65. I'm riding Maryland's excellent defensive form.

There are few sure things. UC Santa Barbara beating Bakersfield is one of them. The Gauchos have won the last 11 meetings.

This includes Santa Barbara's 12-point home win and six-point road win against the Roadrunners this season.

It's not a fluke that Santa Barbara is 19-12, 11-9 in the Big West Conference while the Roadrunners are 14-18 and 8-12 in the conference.

The Gauchos are a much better shooting team than Bakersfield and much superior defensively.

I have Western Kentucky as a far stronger favorite than the point spread indicates in this Conference USA Tournament opener. No, the 17-14 Hilltoppers aren't some great team. But 9-22 Florida International is that bad.

The Panthers just may be the worst 3-point shooting team in the country. They are inferior to Western Kentucky both offensively and defensively.

Florida International is far from being in good form either, covering only one of its last eight games. The Panthers lost 15 of its 18 conference games.

Western Kentucky  just defeated FIU, 76-67, at home this past Thursday. The Hilltoppers were 8-10 in league. They rank in the top 50 in defensive field goal percentage.

Don McHenry, an all-around star, gives the Hilltoppers the best player on the court.

I don't expect Zion Williamson to see action in this game since he played in the Pelicans', 146-117, embarrassing road loss to the Rockets last night. Williamson hasn't played in back-to-back games since returning from a hamstring injury in early January. 

Still, I like the Pelicans getting this many points. 

New Orleans plays much better at home. The Pelicans are 6-3-1 ATS in their last 10 games in New Orleans. They're much improved on the boards, which was a real weakness.

Mainly, though, my handicap is a fade on Memphis.

The Grizzlies aren't playing well enough to lay this many points on the road. They are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 games. Memphis gave up 94 points through three quarters to the short-handed Mavericks before winning, 122-111, this past Friday. That has been the Grizzlies' lone cover during their past 10 games. 

Memphis continues to be without its best big man, injured Jaren Jackson Jr. He won't play today because of an ankle injury. The Pelicans have upgraded their rebounding enough to take advantage.

This is too many points for UCLA to lay in this cross-town long-standing rivalry. The game means far more to USC, which has started to play better. An upset win by the Trojans here secures their place in the Big Ten Conference Tournament.

USC rolled past Washington, 92-61, three days ago. That halted a five-game Trojans' losing skid and should restore the team's confidence.

The Trojans are a top-100 scoring team. They've produced 82 or more points in three of their last four games. They are dangerous. Just ask Big Ten leader Michigan State. The Spartans fell to USC, 70-64, early last month.

The Trojans trailed the Bruins by just one point with 96 seconds left in the first matchup this season before losing by six points.

This may look like an easy game for the Kings on paper, but it's not given the spot and Sacramento's injury situation. 

The Kings just concluded a four-game, eight-day road trip with a tough loss to the Nuggets two days ago. Sacramento had won the first three games of its road swing and led the Nuggets by nine points going into the fourth quarter, but ran out of gas and lost by six. 

The Sacramento players barely have time to get acclimated to being back home before they go back on the highway for a bigger game against the Clippers on Sunday. So there could be a concentration and focus problem for the Kings, especially given the low bar of their opponent. 

The Kings, though, would be challenged to cover a mid-range number without playing well even if they were healthy. But they aren't. Domantas Sabonis and Malik Monk are both out. Those injuries more than offset the Spurs being without Victor Wembanyama. Sabonis is Sacramento's top rebounder, defender and shot-blocker. Monk averages 17.6 points a game and is second on the team in assists. 

San Antonio has an added day of rest after a 14-point home victory against the Nets this past Tuesday. This is a bigger than normal game for the Spurs because De'Aaron Fox is playing against his former team. That should provide extra motivation for the Spurs.

It's easy to overlook Iowa. The Hawkeyes never were able to recover after losing their star big man, Owen Freeman, for the season with a finger injury. Iowa is 3-10 in its last 13 games.

But Michigan State won't be looking past the Hawkeyes despite Iowa's dismal record. It's not just because the Spartans clinch an outright Big Ten Conference title with a win. No, it's more than that.

Tom Izzo has a history of getting the Spartans to peak right before tournament time. That's the case again this season with Michigan State winning and covering its last five games. Izzo is putting a great deal of emphasis on this matchup remembering a home loss to Iowa last season and what happened to his team the last time they visited Iowa. The Spartans blew a 13-point lead with 1:34 left, losing in overtime.

That marked only the fourth time in Division I history a team lost when leading by at least 11 points with 55 seconds to play in regulation.  

This is what Michigan State center Carson Cooper told the Detroit newspapers about this game: "I think for us right now, the attention to detail is probably at an all-time high. Especially Iowa, you can't look past them even though they're not playing great basketball right now, because of what they've been able to do with us the last couple of years. It really makes it personal for us."

Iowa is a top-30 scoring and 3-point shooting team. However, the Hawkeyes rank 340th defensively, surrendering nearly 80 points a game. They are near the bottom of the Big Ten standings with a 6-12 league mark. Michigan State ranks fourth in the nation in 3-point defense.

I disagree with the early marketplace activity that has made Stanford road chalk against Notre Dame. 

This is a sell-high on Stanford, buy-low spot on Notre Dame. The Cardinal is off a 3-0 homestand. However, Stanford has lost six of its past seven road games. The Cardinal is averaging just 65 points a game during their past six away contests. This also is their first road matchup since Feb. 15. So there's going to be an adjustment period.

Stanford is a solid shooting team. Notre Dame, though, ranks 42nd in defensive rebounding and can limit Stanford's scoring opportunities.  
The Irish return home following a 74-71 road loss to Wake Forest and an 83-68 away defeat to Clemson. Note, however, Stanford lost at Wake Forest, 80-67, and lost at Clemson, 85-71. 

Notre Dame should be up for this home matchup. I see the Irish getting the job done.

I'm surprised this line opened where it did because I consider New Mexico to be far superior to Nevada. The Lobos are 23-6 and have won nine of their last 11 games. If the Lobos win this game, they earn at least a share of their first Mountain West Conference regular-season title since 2012-13. So New Mexico certainly is going to have incentive.

Nevada is 16-13 and ranks seventh in the Mountain West with an 8-10 league mark. The Wolf Pack have lost three of their last four games. They are off a terrible loss to UNLV  this past Friday. 

The Wolf Pack haven't beaten a top-five Mountain West team all season. 

The Lobos outscore the Wolf Pack by 10 points a game. They also are much better on the boards. New Mexico has the best guard on the floor in Donovan Dent and the best big man in Nelly Junior Joseph. 

New Mexico has won the last three in this series. Nevada isn't expected to have two of its rotation players, Tre Coleman and Daniel Foster.

This is an excellent gauge to determine just how much the Trail Blazers have improved. They are riding a four-game win streak and have drawn to within four games of qualifying for a play-in tournament spot.

The Cavaliers are in letdown mode after coming from 18 points down to defeat the Celtics in Boston two days ago. It was one of the Cavaliers' most satisfying victories of the season.

So the situation, Portland's improvement and getting this many points puts me on the underdog.

Now that the calendar has hit the magic month of March, powerful second-ranked Duke is thinking about down the road with the ACC Tournament and March Madness. This is the Blue Devils' second-to-last home game. I don't see their focus and motivation being fully there.

Duke has to be satisfied to follow up a loss to Clemson with five straight blowout victories. I understand there's a huge talent gap between the two teams. But Florida State is playing hard for Leonard Hamilton, in his final season. The 15-12 Seminoles are playing better in their past six games. An upset win against Duke would be the highlight of their season and a great going away present for Hamilton.

During this span, Florida State beat Notre Dame and upset Wake Forest on the road, covered at Louisville and played better against North Carolina than the final score of 96-85 showed. Malique Ewin, the Seminoles' leading rebounder and shot blocker and second top scorer, had to leave that game with foot soreness. He should play here having had five days of rest. He is the second-best offensive rebounder in the ACC.

Senior Jamir Watkins, the fifth-leading scorer in the ACC, gives the Seminoles that needed star guard to hang against the Blue Devils.

Coastal Carolina doesn't have a player averaging more than 12.7 points a game. It's easy to see why the Chanticleers are last in the Sun Belt Conference while losing 13 of their past 14 games. They rank 341st in scoring.

Georgia State averages nine points more per game than Coastal Carolina. The Panthers are 8-8 in the conference compared to the Chanticleers' 2-14 Sun Belt mark.

The Panthers are playing well with five wins in their last six games. Georgia State defeated Coastal Carolina, 79-74, in the first meeting this season. That was back on Jan. 11. The Panthers have gotten better since then while Coastal Carolina has gotten worse. The Chanticleers are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games.

I get that fifth-ranked Houston has the top defense in the country and is at home. But this point spread is too much disrespect to eighth-ranked Iowa State.

The Cyclones average six more points per game than Houston. Iowa State's TJ Otzelberger is in my discussion for best coach in the country. 
Otzelberger dealt with Houston last season and came away with two victories in three games. Point spread-wise, the Cyclones were 2-0-1 ATS versus the Cougars last season.

Perhaps Houston is better than it was last season. But Otzelberger also has his strongest Iowa State team. 

The Cyclones are a top-30 scoring team. Their defense is in excellent current form holding the past five opponents to an average of 64.2 points. 

Otzelberger has a pair of ball handlers, Tamin Lipsey and Keshon Gilbert, who won't get rattled by Houston's tenacious pressing defense.

Memphis hasn't lost three games in a row all season. Orlando hasn't won three straight since Dec. 1. 

I don't see these trends changing here. Memphis is the far superior team and isn't going to lack motivation after a 127-113 road loss to the Pacers on Thursday night. A big takeaway from that game is the Grizzlies finally are fully healthy. 

Orlando also played last night, beating the Hawks at home, 114-108. The Magic still don't have Jalen Suggs back in their lineup. He's missed the last 10 games with a bruised thigh. Suggs is the Magic's third-leading scorer and an excellent defensive player. 

Memphis is 36-19. Orlando is below .500. The Magic have lost 14 of their past 21 games.

The Grizzlies average 19 more points per game than the Magic and rank No. 3 in defensive field goal percentage.

The point spread is more than reasonable to back the Grizzlies.

Friday Free Play

Pistons minus 4 at Spurs

Often a team suffers a letdown in their second game after losing a superstar following winning initially. I believe that's going to be the case with the Spurs in their game tonight against the Pistons.

San Antonio gave an inspired, gutty performance in upsetting the Suns on Thursday after learning Victor Wembanyama would be out for the rest of the season because of deep vein thrombosis in his right shoulder. All Wembanyama was doing was averaging 24.3  points, 11.0 rebounds, 3.7 assists while leading the league in blocked shots with 3.8 per game. Keep in mind, too, that Charles Bassey, who is Wembanyama's backup, has missed the last six games with a knee injury.

Also please note that the Spurs defeated Phoenix in Austin not San Antonio. The game tonight also will be in Austin.

It takes two, though, to make the right handicap. The key question is have the Pistons improved enough this season to justify laying mid-range points with them on the road?

I'm going to say yes. The Pistons enter this matchup with a season-best four-game win streak. Their 29-26 record at this point of the season is their best mark in seven years. Only six teams have had a better record than the Pistons since Dec. 21. Detroit is 18-9 during its past 27 games, registering the fifth-best defensive rating and nine-best offensive ranking during this time span.

San Antonio, by comparison, is 24-29 and has lost 13 of its last 19 games.

The wild-card is Detroit last played nine days ago. The Pistons went into All-Star break riding a lot of confidence and optimism. I have to trust that J.B. Bickerstaff will have the Pistons ready to play to keep their momentum going.

New Mexico leads the Mountain West Conference with a 14-1 record and is hot, winning eight in a row.

Yet the oddsmaker opened Boise State the favorite against the Aggies. Early market activity has been on the Broncos, too.

Wrong?

Not the way I see it. The oddsmaker pegged it right. The Broncos are 38-2 during their past 40 home night games. They have beaten New Mexico each of the last six times they've hosted them.

Even though the Broncos have certain matchup edges on New Mexico, they were buried, 84-65, on the road by the Aggies last month. Boise State committed 17 turnovers and missed 19 of 24 shots from beyond the arc while the Aggies made 54.4 percent of their 3-point shots in that game.

But now Boise State is home with revenge. The Broncos have held their past five home opponents to an average of 56.4 points.

Boise State is the fourth-best defensive rebounding team in the country and a far better free throw shooting team than New Mexico, ranking 36th in the nation in accuracy. The Aggies rank 288th in free throw percentage and are 228th in defensive rebounding.

Arizona has not lost three straight games all season. I don't see that streak ending here for the 13th-ranked Wildcats.

The Wildcats are better than unranked Baylor. They proved that last month at home when they built a 27-point second half lead and coasted to an, 81-70, victory. KenPom ratings have Arizona as the 12th best team while ranking Baylor 29th. 

But now Arizona is in stop-the-pain mode after a 73-70 road loss to surging Kansas State six days ago and a tough, 62-58, home loss to sixth-ranked Houston this past Saturday.

Baylor has a potential lottery pick in big man Norchad Omier. However, the Bears' rotation took a hit three games ago when center Josh Ojianwuna was lost for the season with a knee injury. 

The Bears failed to cover as 8 1/2-point home favorites in beating West Virginia, 74-71 in overtime, two days ago. Just seven players saw action for the Bears with four players logging 35 minutes, including Omier. VJ Edgecombe and Langston Love each went 41 minutes. 

Baylor also had to change its style without Ojianwuna going with four perimeters alongside Omier. That style is less effective matching up against the Wildcats, who rank 12th in offensive rebounding.

Surprised unranked Texas is a favorite against 15th-ranked Kentucky? Don't be. The spot and Kentucky likely missing two key players make the Longhorns a deserving home favorite. 

Texas is in desperation mode having gone 1-4 in its last five games. The Longhorns have played the toughest schedule in the toughest conference, the SEC. But they need this game to improve their NCAA Tournament resume. 

The timing works for Texas. The Longhorns draw the Wildcats after Kentucky just upset fifth-ranked Tennessee at home this past Tuesday. 

The Wildcats, though, finished their emotional victory against the Volunteers minus Jaxson Robinson, who sat out with a wrist injury, and point guard Lamont Butler, who went out with injury during the game. Kentucky coach Mark Pope said he does not expect either player to play. Those are Kentucky's second and third leading scorers. Butler also is Kentucky's assists leader. 

Butler's expected absence should be a plus for Texas' Tre Johnson, who leads the SEC in scoring.

A decimated front-court, no Luka Doncic and a disgruntled, hostile fan base puts me on the Warriors. Golden State is coming on since acquiring Jimmy Butler burying the Bucks and and Bulls in their last two games.

This more a fade on the Mavericks, though. Dallas wanted to load up in the frontcourt and beat teams dominating the paint after dealing Doncic for Anthony Davis. Unfortunately for the Mavericks they have a cluster injury situation with their big men.

Center Daniel Gafford is the latest Dallas casualty after suffering a sprained knee in an overtime loss to the Kings this past Monday. He joins other injured Dallas players Anthony Davis, Dereck Lively II, Dwight Powell, P.J. Washington and Caleb Martin.

The Mavericks are generating no sympathy from their fans, who hate them now for trading Doncic. Dallas probably is better off being on the road than playing at home during this time.

A rejuvenated Butler has made the Warriors relevant again. It's not a fluke the Warriors had a season-16 steals against the Bucks in their last game, a 125-111 win, and that Curry is averaging seven 3-pointers during the past two games.

There is only one team better than the Thunder in the Western Conference and it's not the Suns. Memphis is 35-17, the No. 2 team in the West and nine games better than Phoenix.

I want the Grizzlies after they lost, 125-112, at home to Oklahoma City this past Saturday. That was only Memphis' second loss in its last 12 games. The Grizzlies are 13-3 this season when playing following a defeat for 81 percent.

Phoenix has lost and failed to cover in four of its five games this month. The Suns are expected to get Kevin Durant back, but won't have Bradley Beal for a third straight game due to a toe injury.

The Suns had Durant and still lost at home to the Grizzlies, 117-112, when they last met on Dec. 31.

I believe in taking points with the better team. So I'm going with the Eagles fully realizing how clutch and lucky the Chiefs are in close games.

I give the Eagles a check mark in every area except quarterback and coaching. The Eagles have a much superior running game with Saquon Barkley, are better in the trenches, have a higher-rated secondary and the two best wide receivers, A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith.

No team produced more than 23 points against the Eagles during the last 16 games except the Commanders.

Philadelphia ranked either first or second in scoring defense, pass defense and total defense. The Chiefs were below average in pass defense.

Patrick Mahomes doesn't have any superstar skill position players around him unless you include a declining Travis Kelce. Jalen Hurts has Barkley and Brown.

The Eagles don't need to blitz Mahomes because their defensive front is so good both against the run and pass. The Texans had a very good defensive front, too. The Chiefs only managed 212 yards of offense and 4.2 yards per play against the Texans in their playoff opener.

Philadelphia's offensive line was ranked the best in the NFL for the third straight season by Pro Football Focus. Barkley was close to setting the NFL single-season rushing record running behind that line.

Kansas City was an underdog during the past two Super Bowls. The last time the Chiefs were a Super Bowl favorite was against the Buccaneers in 2021. Tampa Bay beat the favored Chiefs, 31-9.

This time around the Chiefs are back to being the Super Bowl favorite. The oddsmaker had no choice, but to make Kansas City chalk. No way could they open Mahomes as a Super Bowl underdog.

That doesn't mean the Chiefs are the better team. They're not, which the Eagles will prove.

Super Bowl Props

Dallas Goedert Over his receiving yardage

Travis Kelce is going to get all the publicity and be heavily bet on the prop market. Dallas Goedert is the other tight end in this Super Bowl matchup.

It's going Over Goedert's receiving yardage, though, that offers value.

The Chiefs surrendered an NFL-high 1,191 yards to tight ends during the regular season. That's an average of 70 tight end receiving yards a game.

Kansas City didn't face too many exceptional tight ends. The last one the Chiefs went against was Brock Bowers eight games ago. Bowers caught 10 passes for 140 yards in that game against the Chiefs.

Goedert is an above average tight end. Jalen Hurts relies on him. Goedert tied A.J. Brown with 18 receiving targets in the Eagles' three playoff games. Goedert averaged 62.6 receiving yards in these three postseason games.

DeAndre Hopkins Over his receptions and receiving yardage: 

DeAndre Hopkins isn't the star wide receiver of past seasons. But he's not washed up either. He remains respectable and dangerous on slant patterns.

I'm sure Patrick Mahomes is not going to ignore him. The Eagles will be keying on Travis Kelce and concerned about Xavier Worthy's great speed. That leaves Hopkins, with his always dependable hands, an inviting target for Mahomes. 

Even though the Raptors won't have Jakob Poeltl and RJ Barrett while the Thunder gets back Chet Holmgren, I find this point spread too inflated given the situation and Toronto's skill level.

The Raptors have come on to win eight of their last 12 games. They have covered 58 percent of their games this season.

It's easy to see why the oddsmaker is so strong on Oklahoma City. The Thunder are 3-0 on their homestand with blowout victories against the Kings, Bucks and Suns. Holmgren returns for the first time since suffering a pelvic fracture nearly three months ago.

Toronto just suffered its worst loss of the season, 138-107, to the Grizzlies two days ago.

So the Raptors should have motivation after that embarrassing defeat. They also have revenge. Holmgren figures to be rusty, too, after being out for so long.

But the biggest factor in Toronto's favor is the situation. Not only are the Thunder fat and happy, but they have a much bigger game tomorrow night on the road against the Grizzlies. Memphis has the second best record in the West behind Oklahoma City.

So the backdoor could swing wide open if the Raptors need it during the final few minutes when the Thunder surely would be resting starters if holding a big lead.

The Hornets are a bottom-tier team. But they are upper echelon when compared to the 7-41 Wizards. This isn't too many points for the Hornets to lay, playing at home after a tough, 107-104, home loss to the Nuggets this past Saturday in which they led by four points with less than a minute left.

The Wizards halted a 16-game losing streak with a 105-103 road win against the Timberwolves this past Saturday. That put Washington's road record at 2-21. The Wizards have won back-to-back games only once this season - and that was back in October.

The Hornets' front-court received a big boost with center Mark Williams returning from a foot injury. He had 20 points and 15 rebounds against the Nuggets.

I'm attracted to the better team getting points especially when the situation and statistical matchup favor the underdog. 

That's the case in this matchup where the Grizzlies try to make it seven straight wins against the Bucks. Memphis blew out Milwaukee, 122-99, at home back in late October in the first meeting between the team's this season. 

The Bucks showed fatigue getting blown out by the Spurs two days ago. That was the conclusion of a four-game, seven-day road trip for Milwaukee. The Bucks had to fly back for this home game and they will take off for Oklahoma City to play the Thunder on Monday. So the Bucks' focus and concentration might not be fully there. 

Memphis is one of the most well-rounded teams in the league ranking fifth on offense and seventh defensively. The Grizzlies also hold a rebounding edge on the Bucks. Milwaukee will be without Bobby Portis, its second-leading rebounder. That's good news for Memphis big men Jaren Jackson Jr. and Zach Edey.

Gonzaga has a well-earned great reputation. But the Bulldogs are not the class of the West Coast Conference. St. Mary's is with the record and statistics to prove it. The Gaels should not be a home 'dog to Gonzaga.

St. Mary's is unbeaten in nine WCC games. The Gaels are 19-3 overall. Gonzaga is 16-6 overall, 9-13 ATS and is 7-2 in the WCC with losses to Oregon State, 97-89, and to Santa Clara at home, 103-99, on Jan. 18.

The Gaels, who are 11-1 at home, just defeated Santa Clara, 67-54, on the road this past Wednesday. St. Mary's defeated Gonzaga in two of three meetings last season, including in the conference tournament, 69-60.

Gonzaga is the No. 2 scoring team in the nation. However, St. Mary's is the superior defensive and rebounding team. The Gaels give up 10 points fewer per game than the Bulldogs ranking seventh in the country defensively. The Gaels also are the top rebounding team in the nation with a team total rebounding percentage of 57.6 percent.

Gonzaga's 3-point shooting percentage drops seven percent when it plays on the road.

Bottom line: Wrong team favored.

Big favorites can get a little lazy this time of the year in the NBA with the All-Star break not too far away in mid-February.

But I don't see this as a problem for Oklahoma City. The Thunder have the best point spread record in the league at 29-13-2 (69%).

Not only are the Thunder 15 games better than the Warriors in the loss column, but the situation lays out well for them even being the visitor.

The Warriors got away with resting Stephen Curry and his sore knees against the Jazz on Tuesday night in a 114-103 victory. Curry is likely to return here, but the Warriors still are missing two key injured players, Draymond Green and third-leading scorer Jonathan Kuminga.

Golden State has lost and failed to cover during three of the past four times it played without rest. The Warriors were merely a .500 team at home until beating the hapless Jazz.

The Thunder have been idle since Sunday. After this game, they won't play again until Saturday. So Oklahoma, the No. 1 defensive team in the NBA, should have its full focus. The Thunder won't be taking the Warriors lightly either after losing to them at home back in November.

VCU is playing well with five straight victories. But this line is too high.

St. Bonaventure defeated the Rams, 77-75, at home on New Year's Eve. 

The Bonnies are 7-2 ATS in road/neutral site games. 

VCU ranks 12th defensively allowing just 62.6 points a game. St. Bonaventure, though, is right there with the Rams holding foes to an average of 63.6 points a game. VCU's offensive superiority isn't enough to cover this high of a point spread.

Iowa averages nearly 20 points more per game than Minnesota and plays much better at home. Minnesota has yet to win away from home going 0-5 in away and neutral-site court games. That includes blowout road losses to Wisconsin and Indiana, a team Iowa defeated by 25 points at home.

The spot here sets up for an Iowa double-digit victory. The Hawkeyes won't lack motivation returning home after losing West Coast games to UCLA and Southern Cal last week. The Hawkeyes are 10-1 at home with their lone loss occurring to third-ranked Iowa State. 

The Gophers are averaging just 65.2 points in regulation during their last five games. 

Only two teams in the country average more than Iowa's 88.4 points a game - and the Hawkeyes are at their offensive-best at home.

It's rare, but sometimes you can find value on an NFL favorite. This game is an example.

Home field advantage for the Eagles should be worth more than a field goal in this instance given the Rams are traveling across three time zones on a short week to Philadelphia and that's after returning from Arizona to Los Angeles.

This isn't a Rams type of setting either being outdoors with 30-degree weather and possible rain.

I rate the Eagles as far better than the Rams, not just three points better on a neutral field, which is what the betting line seems to indicate.

Philadelphia had its bye in Week 5. Since then the Eagles have gone 13-1. That record most likely would be 14-0 because the one loss came to the Commanders after Jalen Hurts was injured early in the game. Philadelphia had a two-touchdown lead against Washington, but were punchless when backup stiff Kenny Pickett replaced Hurts.

The Eagles defense has become the best in the league ranking No. 2 in scoring defense and first in fewest yards and passing yards. The Rams are not only the lowest scoring team to make the playoffs, but also allowed the most yards of any of the postseason participants.

Hurts was getting the rust off in the Rams' 22-10 wild card win against the Packers this past Sunday. It was far from the Eagles' "A" game. Yet they never were threatened. The Rams lost to the Packers at home, 24-19, in Week 5.

The Rams couldn't hang against the Eagles at home either when they met in Week 12. Saquon Barkley had 302 total yards of offense just by himself in the Eagles' 37-20 victory.

Not only are the Eagles far superior to the Rams talent-wise, but they have home field and the Rams are in a bad situational spot. That merits a double-digit point spread in my view so I'm easily on the Eagles.

Kudos to the motivated Timberwolves, who upset the Knicks at Madison Square Garden, 116-99, on Friday night. The Timberwolves' reward? They have to immediately fly back home to take on an angry Cavaliers squad that was humiliated by the Thunder on national TV this past Thursday.

The rested Cavaliers have been itching to redeem themselves after losing, 134-114, to the Thunder in a game that wasn't even as close as the 20-point margin. Cleveland pulled its starters out early of the blowout in anticipation of this matchup. No Cavalier starter logged more than 25 minutes in that loss with three playing fewer than 21 minutes.

You have to go back to November to find the last time the Cavaliers lost consecutive games.

Minnesota's victory against the Knicks at Madison Square Garden was emotional because of Julius Randle's return to New York. Randle was one of four Minnesota starters to log at least 34 minutes. Not only are the Timberwolves playing without rest, but this marks their third game in four days having lost at home to the Warriors by one point this past Wednesday.

In my view this line is inflated because of how well Ohio State has looked in its last two games - blowouts of Tennessee and Oregon - and how mediocre Texas has looked.

But I'm not convinced Ohio State is better than Texas. Those just happened to be the Buckeyes' two most impressive victories of the season.

I like Longhorns QB Quinn Ewers better than Buckeyes QB Will Howard, who doesn't bring fear when it comes to downfield passing. The Longhorns also have arguably the best cornerback in the country, Jahdae Barron.

I rated Texas as having a tougher schedule. The only team the Longhorns have lost to is Georgia. Ohio State lost to Michigan. Maybe the Buckeyes beat the Wolverines eight of 10 times, but the fact is Texas crushed the Wolverines, 31-12, on the road.

Note, too, the game venue - Arlington, Texas. It's not Austin, but home field has to go to Texas.

All the pressure is on the Broncos here being in must-win territory. This is a new experience for Denver, which hasn't made the playoffs since 2015.

Yes, the Chiefs will be resting many players, including Patrick Mahomes. But this is a Kansas City team deep in talent, prideful and with stellar coaching. The Chiefs won't roll over even without some of their key starters. Carson Wentz is one of the better backups. He won't lack motivation either as he showcases himself.

Andy Reid has a tremendous track record in the final week of the regular season. The Chiefs are 9-1 the last 10 regular season games despite being underdogs on multiple occasions.

Note, too, the Chiefs have beaten the Broncos in 17 of the last 18 meetings.

No one is calling Buffalo a great team. But the Bulls have huge edges in this matchup making this a strong play.

Liberty isn't very good either. The Flames barely beat New Mexico State. They have one of the worst ATS marks in the country at 3-8.

Making things far worse for the Flames, though, are their many opt-outs. They will be down their quarterback Kaidon Salter and star running back, Quinton Cooley, who rushed for 1,234 yards and 13 touchdowns.

That's not all, though. The Flames also lost nearly their entire offensive line and several defensive linemen, too.

Buffalo enters the matchup with momentum and motivation riding a four-game winning streak.

The Bulls are well coached and come from the superior conference as I would take the MAC above Conference USA.

I feel confident laying this many points with Texas State. The talent gap is that large between these two teams, especially since North Texas won't have quarterback Chandler Morris and wide receiver DT Sheffield. Those are the two keys to the Mean Green's offense.

Heck, North Texas needed a close win against 3-9 Temple to even make this bowl game.

It's not like North Texas has done well when playing in a bowl having lost six straight bowl games.

Texas State has its star quarterback, Jordan McCloud, and will do plenty of damage against a North Texas defense that could be the worst of all the bowl teams. The Mean Green rank 121st in scoring defense and 126th in total defense. Their secondary has allowed 22 touchdown throws and their run defense permits an average of 195.5 yards a game on the ground.

On top of that, Texas State coach GJ Kinne has been known to run up scores.

Injuries have decimated the 49ers this season. They are 1-6 in their last seven games and have little motivation being eliminated from the playoffs.

Dan Campbell's style is for his team to go all out. The Lions haven't forgotten about a 34-31 loss to the 49ers in the NFC championship game last season.

Detroit is 7-0 on the road and have a far better offense than the 49ers, who are down to their third-string running back, without Brandon Aiyuk and are scrambling to put together a makeshift offensive line with multiple injuries.

The Lions have multiple defensive injuries, but possess excellent depth in their defensive line and maybe the best safety tandem in the league.

I like the spot here from a Dallas standpoint. The Mavericks are off a home loss on Christmas Day to the Timberwolves, while the Suns upset the Nuggets at home on Christmas Day.

Dallas is the better team and is a slight underdog.

The Mavericks won't have injured Luka Doncic. But that's somewhat negated with Devin Booker, the Suns' second-leading scorer, out with a groin injury.

Dallas has the better defense and has proven it can score and win without Doncic, averaging 117 points during his absence. The Mavericks are 6-2 when Doncic hasn't played.

Until defeating the Nuggets, the Suns had gone 1-7 ATS in their last eight games.

Once a season it might be permissible to lay points with the Hornets on the road. That time is now.

The desperate Hornets, fresh off a players-only meeting, are playing the Wizards.

Washington has the worst record in the NBA at 4-23. The Wizards are 2-21 in their last 23 games. Each of their last 15 defeats have been by double-digits. 

Making it so tough for the Wizards is they have multiple injuries. Kevin Kuzman, their second-leading scorer, is out. So is big man Marvin Bagley III. Several rotation players are questionable, including their fourth and sixth-leading scorers. 

I get that Charlotte is no prize being 7-22. But the Hornets are the healthier team and have revenge for a 123-114 road loss to the Wizards last Thursday. Charlotte shot just 41 percent from the floor and 19 percent from 3-point range in that game. Washington, by contrast, made 49 percent of its field goal attempts and hit 40 percent of its 3-pointers.

The Texans made the playoffs last season. They likely will make the playoffs again because they have a two-game lead in the weak AFC South Division.

But Houston has not shown the necessary improvement to take the next step, which is beating an elite foe such as the Ravens. The Texans have played three above .500 teams during their last 10 games. They lost each of those games to the Chiefs, Lions and Packers.

Baltimore defeated the Texans, 25-9, in the opening game last year and then whipped the Texans, 34-10, in the playoffs. Both of those games were at home for the Ravens. That doesn't matter. The Ravens remain what I consider to be two tiers above Houston. So, yes, I expect them to win this game by more than a touchdown.

Playing on Christmas Day is a plus, too, for the Ravens.

The Wednesday game means the Texans probably aren't going to have two starting offensive linemen and will be missing both of their starting safeties, Jimmie Ward and Jalen Pitre, because of injuries.

Lamar Jackson is having another MVP-caliber season with a 37-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio and close to 800 yards rushing. The Texans have never beaten Jackson in four attempts. Houston's defensive strength is its pass rush. Jackson has the mobility to escape that.

The Ravens are going to get their points. I don't see C.J. Stroud keeping up. Stroud's numbers are down from his rookie season. He's minus his No. 2 and No. 3 receivers with Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell out. Stroud may not be fully recovered mentally from watching his friend Dell suffer a career-threatening gruesome knee injury this past week.

Houston made a smart waiver claim getting Dioontae Johnson from the Ravens, who apparently were so receiver-rich they didn't even use Johnson. However, Johnson hasn't had enough acclimation time with Houston to make a dent in this matchup.

Prop Bet

Mark Andrews to score a touchdown and go Over his yardage total

After a slow start, Mark Andrews has returned to his star form. Andrews has scored a touchdown in five of his last six games, including the past four games. During these last six games, Andrews has averaged 4.1 receptions a game and 43.6 yards. His hands are as reliable as ever.

But what makes Andrews especially intriguing in this game is Houston is down its starting safeties, Jimmie Ward and Jalen Pitre. That means the middle of the field should be there for the taking for Andrews. Lamar Jackson trusts him and I expect will be looking often for Andrews.

San Jose State star wide receiver Nick Nash, who led the nation in receptions, receiving yards and touchdowns, has opted out of this Hawaii Bowl.

I still like the Spartans enough to lay points with them. Why? Because South Florida may be the worst of all the bowl teams.

The 6-6 Bulls didn't beat a quality team all season. Their most impressive performance may have been against Alabama - in a 42-16 loss. The Bulls are off a 35-28 loss to 4-8 Rice. The Bulls were outscored by 27 points when they met bowl teams this season.

San Jose State has the more talented team and I give the Spartans' coaching staff an edge, too. The Spartans also have experience playing in Hawaii being a member of the Mountain West Conference. The Spartans played at Hawaii last season.

The Spartans don't need Nash to take advantage of South Florida's 128th-ranked pass defense. The Bulls' lost players in the transfer portal, including starting safety Tawfig Byard.

Coastal Carolina actually is the home team here. The game is being played at Brooks Stadium in Conway, S.C. That's where the Chanticleers play their home games.

Yet there has been a huge line movement on the University of Texas San Antonio to where the Roadrunners are around two-touchdown favorites.

Coastal Carolina being without its two quarterbacks, Ethan Vasko and Noah Kim, is what is driving the UTSA money.

But you know what? I'm not especially fond of either Coastal Carolina quarterback. Neither is very accurate. Kim only threw 56 passes. Vasko had a 14-to-8 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The Chanticleers' strength is their ground attack, which ranks 45th.

Coastal Carolina's Tim Beck is a good coach and UTSA has a horrible defense. The Roadrunners rank 108th in scoring defense giving up 31.3 points a game. They ranked 126rd in pass defense. Opposing quarterbacks threw for 26 TD passes against the Roadrunners. Only 10 teams surrendered more TD's through the air.

I have confidence in Beck coaching up Tad Hudson to get the start at quarterback. Hudson was a four-star recruit two seasons ago. North Carolina signed him, but Hudson transferred to Coastal Carolina this spring. Given home field, a good ground attack and being an intriguing prospect facing a bad defense, I believe Hudson will do well.  

UTSA isn't exactly some powerhouse. The Roadrunners went 6-6 playing in the weak American Athletic Conference. They were outgained both on a total game basis and yard-per-yard basis.

The Roadrunners shouldn't be this high of a road favorite plain and simple. So I'm going against the line move and backing Coastal Carolina.

The class difference between these two teams is not reflected in the point spread. The Eagles hold edges on the Commanders at every position, including quarterback now that Jalen Hurts is back on the same page with ace wide receivers, A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. 

Philadelphia is the best team in the NFC with a franchise-record 10 consecutive victories. The Eagles have won all of these games by four or more points. 

The Commanders rank 25th in run defense. Saquon Barkley leads the NFL in rushing by 214 yards. 

The Eagles' defense has gotten much better as the team is now comfortable executing ace defensive coordinator Vic Fangio's system. 

Philadelphia has held its last six opponents to an average of 15.3 points a game. Jayden Daniels doesn't have the skill position weapons the Eagles have. His offensive line is much worse than Philadelphia's, too, and he's facing a much tougher defense. 

The price is cheap to get the Eagles.

Cal Irvine is 10-1 and has revenge for a 66-62 loss to Duquesne last season.

Cal Irvine is much better than the Dukes this season. The Anteaters shoot better, are the superior rebounding team and make 84 percent of their free throws compared to the Dukes, who make less than 65 percent of their free throws.

The Anteaters are 4-1 on the road while the Dukes have dropped four of their past five home contests.

Marquette has had four days to stew about a loss to Dayton in its last game.

The Golden Eagles are far superior to Butler and I want them off a loss playing at home. 

Marquette is 7-0 at home, 5-1-1 ATS. The Golden Eagles' average home win has been by 23.7 points. 

Butler has a losing point spread record. The Bulldogs lost their last game to Wisconsin, 83-74, at a neutral site. That was their third straight defeat. Early in the season, they lost at home to Austin Peay as a 17-point favorite. 

By contrast, Marquette beat Wisconsin, 88-74, at home. 

Class difference, home-court and motivation should all factor in Marquette covering this number.

Now that Matt Eberflus is gone, my vote for worst NFL head coach is Antonio Pierce of the Raiders.

Not that Pierce has much to work with since the Raiders give up the second-most points in the NFL, rank last in rushing, turn the ball over the third-highest amount and only have one star defensive player, Maxx Crosby.

Make that zero stars on defense as Crosby is now out for the season with an ankle injury.

Atlanta is a mediocre team. But mediocre is enough to beat the Raiders by a touchdown especially considering the situation.

More than likely the Raiders are going to be forced to start third-string QB Desmond Ridder. The Falcons certainly know how to defend Ridder, who is mobile but inaccurate and highly-turnover prone. Ridder started 13 games for the Falcons last season before Atlanta finally gave up on him.

The Falcons' pass rush has picked up considerably during their last two games. Atlanta has recorded nine sacks during this span. If  Aidan O'Connell is somehow able to play on a bad knee - and he's doubtful - the Raiders would have more of a downfield threat but no mobility at quarterback.

The Raiders have no above average weapons for their quarterbacks except tight end Brock Bowers. Las Vegas hasn't broken the 20-point barrier in nine of its last 10 games.

Kirk Cousins could lose his starting position if he doesn't play better for Atlanta. He has far more weapons than the Las Vegas quarterbacks do and is facing a Raiders defense that allows an average of 27.8 points per game - and that was with Crosby, one of the NFL's elite pass rushers.

The Raiders don't have much of a home field edge either with Las Vegas being a tourist destination and being in a dome with controlled settings, which is what the Falcons are used to.

Bryce Young and Carolina are much improved. Now the Panthers have reached the stage where they can lose close games. Carolina does not know how to win. So the Panthers should not be favored.

This is uncharted waters for the Panthers, who haven't been chalk since 2022. 

Dallas is down, its playoff hopes slim. But the Cowboys are not mathematically eliminated yet. Mike McCarthy is fighting for his coaching life. 

The Cowboys will have motivation. They have the best skill position player on the field, CeeDee Lamb, and the top defensive player, Micah Parsons, who is back from injury and has 3 1/2 sacks in his last three games. Parsons could wreak havoc on a bad Carolina offensive line. 

Rico Dowdle has put together the first two 100-yard rushing games of his career the past two weeks. He'll be running against the worst run defense in the league. Carolina gives up 170 yards per game on the ground and 4.97 yards per carry. The Panthers, by contrast, are thin at running back with their No. 2, 3 and 4 running backs all hurt. 

Dallas has put up an average of 27 points per game during its past three games. 

The Panthers, for all of their improvement, still have lost eight of their last 10 games.

Navy hasn't been the same team since getting whacked by Notre Dame, 51-14, in late October. The Midshipmen have gone 2-2 since then. They got blanked by Tulane, 35-0, in their one step-up game during that span.

Now Navy is in another step-up spot - and the matchup does not work in the Midshipmen's favor.

Army is the No. 1 rushing offense in the country. Black Knights' QB Bryson Daily has rushed for 1,480 yards and scored 29 touchdowns, tying him with Ashton Jeanty for the most TD's in the nation. Navy has a small defensive interior. The Midshipmen can be run on. They rank 85th in run defense. Notre Dame and Tulane combined to rush for 485 yards against Navy,.  

QB Blake Horvath missed Navy's last game, but is expected to play here. Whether Horvath, a dual-threat, is 100 percent remains to be seen. Both Navy's offense and defense have tailed off.

Army surrenders only 15 points a game, ranks 10th in fewest yards and 11th in defensive rushing yards. Army also has 19 takeaways, which ranks in the top 10.

I rate Army above Navy on both sides of the ball. The Black Knights have had only five turnovers, too, which is the fewest in the country.

So I don't see a path for Navy to stay within a touchdown of Army. I see the Black Knights building a comfortable lead, wearing down Navy and the run-oriented Midshipmen lacking a  backdoor capability.

There's too much of a defensive gap between these two teams for me to back the Rams. The timing isn't good either for LA.

San Francisco ranks third in fewest yards allowed and pass defense. The 49ers give up the fifth-fewest yards per play. 

By comparison, the Rams rank in the bottom-nine in most major defensive categories, including scoring, total defense, pass defense, yards per play and run defense. 

The Rams had no answer for the Bills this past Sunday giving up 44 points and 445 yards. Yet they still won. But now the Rams have to travel on a short week. 

The prideful 49ers are in must-win mode at 6-7. They regained their confidence returning home last week and smashing the Bears, 38-13, after losing on the road to the Bills and Packers the previous two games.

The Hawks' 28th defensive rating caught up to them in their last game. Atlanta lost, 141-111, to the Nuggets at home this past Sunday.

I don't see the Knicks beating the Hawks by 30 points. Just double-digits.

New York is by far the superior defensive team - allowing an average of 103 points in its last six games - at home and much the healthier team.

Atlanta has four of its top five scorers banged-up. Jalen Johnson and Bogdan Bogdanovic may not even be able to play.

The Knicks are 5-1 in their last six games. Their past six wins at home have come by an average of 18.3 points.