02-09-25 |
Chiefs v. Eagles +2 |
Top |
22-40 |
Win
|
100 |
325 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 6:30 pm, on Sunday, Feb. 9, our selection is on the Philadelphia Eagles + the points over the Kansas City Chiefs. At the start of the Playoffs, I predicted the Eagles would defeat the Chiefs in the Super Bowl, and I have no reason to run away from that prediction now. Especially since Philly has been installed as the underdog. I've always agreed with the adage that -- at least in the NFL -- "defense wins championships." Admittedly, this Super Bowl 59 matches up two excellent defensive teams. But Philly has been the league's best defensive team throughout the season, when assessed by the most important metrics. For example, the Eagles ranked #2 in the league in scoring defense, with 303 points allowed. And they fell just 2 points shy of the Los Angeles Chargers' defense, which allowed 301 points. Kansas City ranked #4 in scoring defense, at 326 points allowed. Then, in yards per game, the Eagles were #1, at 278.4 ypg, while the Chiefs were 9th, at 320.6 ypg. And, finally, the Eagles were also #1 in yards per play, at 4.8 ypp, while the Chiefs ranked #12, at 5.4 ypp. Most years, the team with the better scoring defense is installed as the favorite; here, it's the underdog. And underdogs have gone 10-4 ATS in Super Bowls with the better scoring defense. And Philly has gone 8-1 ATS as an underdog in the Playoffs with the better scoring defense. Meanwhile, for all of Andy Reid's success, his teams have gone just 5-6 ATS when favored in the Playoffs, if they didn't own the better scoring defense (compared to 14-11-1 ATS when Reid's team DID own the better defense). So, defense + underdog status is one reason why I favor the Eagles. The other is that Philly has played relatively better than the Chiefs down the stretch, whether in the Playoffs, or in the last five games. And, to be generous to the Chiefs, I will toss out their 38-0 loss to the Broncos in the season finale, when they rested their best players. So far, in the Playoffs, KC has covered the point spread by an average of 2.0 ppg, while the Eagles have covered by an average of 12.5 ppg. Then, over the teams' last five games (with the game vs. Denver tossed out), KC's average point spread differential was +7.2, while the Eagles' point spread differential was +12.5. And these point spread differential statistics tie into a Super Bowl 'momentum' system of mine which has cashed 77.2%. Finally, Philadelphia has the better scoring margin than Kansas City. The Eagles have outscored their foes by an average of 10.5 ppg, while the Chiefs are at 3.73 ppg (or 6.05 ppg if the 38-0 loss is excepted). Now, most of the time, the team with the better scoring margin has NOT been the underdog in the Playoffs. That's been the case in 383 of the 490 post-season games played up to this point since 1980. But in the games where they were installed as an underdog, they've gone 63-41-3 ATS since 1980. Take Philadelphia + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|
01-26-25 |
Bills v. Chiefs -1.5 |
Top |
29-32 |
Win
|
100 |
129 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs minus the points over the Buffalo Bills. We played on the Bills as a 1-point home dog last week, in part because of Buffalo's strong record at home in the Playoffs (now, 16-3 SU at home). But it's been a completely different story for the Bills outside of Orchard Park. Since 1980, the Bills have gone 3-15 SU and 4-13-1 ATS in the Playoffs when not in front of their home faithful. And if Buffy's opponent owned a .714 (or better) win percentage, then our 4-13-1 ATS mark collapses to 0-9 SU/ATS. The Chiefs (obviously) have excelled in the playoffs the last six seasons, with a 15-2 SU record, and a 12-4-1 ATS ledger. And they're a perfect 7-0 SU/ATS when not laying 3 or more points. And this success as an underdog or a short favorite has extended to the regular season, as well. When one looks at KC's ATS record in all games, it is a sensational 24-9 SU/ATS when not favored by more than 3 points. For this AFC Championship game, one of the key factors for me is the superiority of the Chiefs' defense. KC is allowing just 18.88 ppg, while Buffalo is 2.17 points worse, at 21.05. And, since 1980, in AFC Conference Championship games, favorites of less than 9 points, with scoring defenses at least 1.3 ppg better, have gone 11-1 SU/ATS. Lay the points with the Chiefs. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|
01-26-25 |
Commanders v. Eagles -5 |
Top |
23-55 |
Win
|
100 |
150 h 36 m |
Show
|
At 3 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Philadelphia Eagles minus the points over Washington. Last weekend, the Commanders put up a whopping 45 points and defeated Detroit, 45-31. But off that offensive explosion, we'll fade the Commanders in this NFC Title game. Indeed, since 1980, teams that scored 35 (or more) points in their previous game have cashed just 31.2% of Conference Championship games, when installed as an underdog. Even better: Philly plays this game with revenge from a 36-33 loss last month at Washington. However, the good news for Philly is that it is 102-75 ATS when playing with revenge. Lay the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|
01-19-25 |
Ravens v. Bills OVER 51 |
Top |
25-27 |
Win
|
100 |
64 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 6:30 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the OVER in the Baltimore/Buffalo game. This is a great match-up, as they're two of the 4 best scoring margin teams in the league (along with the Lions and Eagles). The Ravens are outscoring their opponents by 9.50 ppg, while Buffalo has outscored its foes by 10.05 ppg. I like playing on match-ups between elite teams Over the total, and especially when the O/U line projects the game to be relatively high-scoring, with a line of greater than 50 points. Buffalo's home playoff games have gone OVER 13 of 17 since 1991. Additionally, over the last 45 years, the Ravens have gone OVER in 60% of their games with O/U lines greater than 50, while the Bills have gone OVER in 57% of their games with O/U lines greater than 50. Take the Over. Good luck as always...Al McMordie.
|
01-19-25 |
Ravens v. Bills +1.5 |
Top |
25-27 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 49 m |
Show
|
At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the Buffalo Bills + the points over Baltimore. It's not often you get the Bills priced as an underdog. And at home, no less. But that's the case today against the Ravens, who are 13-5 SU and 11-6-1 ATS. We'll grab the points with Josh Allen & Co., as they're an awesome 19-4-2 ATS their last 25 (and 40-18-3 ATS their last 61) vs. foes with a winning SU/ATS record, if the Bills were not favored by 4+ points. The Bills have also won 15 of their last 18 home playoff games, straight-up, including 6-1 SU and 5-1-1 ATS when the game was competitively-priced with a point spread between PK and 4.5. Take Buffalo. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|
01-19-25 |
Rams v. Eagles OVER 43.5 |
Top |
22-28 |
Win
|
100 |
102 h 54 m |
Show
|
At 3 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Philadelphia Eagles and Los Angeles Rams to go OVER the total. The Eagles come into this game off back-to-back low-scoring affairs. They defeated the New York Giants, 20-13, to end the regular season. And, then, they took care of business last week with a 22-10 win over Green Bay. But off those two relatively low-scoring games, we'll look for a much higher-scoring game on Sunday. Indeed, Philadelphia is 11-4 OVER the total its last 15 after going Under in two straight games. And five of the last six meetings between these teams have gone OVER the total, including Philly's 37-20 triumph over the Rams back in November. Take the Over. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|
01-19-25 |
Rams v. Eagles -5.5 |
Top |
22-28 |
Win
|
100 |
102 h 53 m |
Show
|
At 3 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Philadelphia Eagles minus the points over the Los Angeles Rams. The Eagles have completely dominated the Rams, with SU/ATS wins in each of the current and previous seasons. And Philly is 8-1 SU its last nine vs. L.A., and 16-3-1 ATS its last 20 games in this series. Some might be tempted to take Los Angeles because it was playing with double revenge from its 37-20 loss this season, and its 23-14 loss to the Eagles last season. But NFL teams playing with double revenge have gone 11-27-2 ATS in the Playoffs if they weren't getting more than 7 points, and were not off an ATS loss. Take Philly to blow out Los Angeles. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|
01-18-25 |
Texans v. Chiefs -8 |
Top |
14-23 |
Win
|
100 |
79 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 4:30 pm, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs minus the points over Houston. We played on the Texans as a home underdog last week, and were rewarded with a blowout win, 32-12, over the L.A. Chargers. But off that game, where the Texans covered by 22.5 points, we'll fade them on the road against the defending champs. Since Andy Reid took over the coaching reins of the Chiefs, they've gone 35-24 ATS vs. foes that covered the spread by more than 7 points in their previous game, including 21-13 ATS at home. That bodes well for Kansas City on Saturday. As does the fact that NFL home favorites of more than 7 points, off a SU loss in their previous game, have gone 22-12 ATS in the Playoffs. Finally, in Reid's years as a head coach with the Eagles and Chiefs, his teams have excelled when playing with a week of rest, as they've gone 33-7 SU and 25-15 ATS. Lay the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|
01-13-25 |
Vikings v. Rams +2.5 |
Top |
9-27 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 8 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the Los Angeles Rams + the points over the Minnesota Vikings. These two teams met in Los Angeles earlier this season, and the Rams defeated Minnesota, 30-20. And that was the 3rd straight win by the Rams in this series -- each time scoring 30+ points. I like the Rams as an underdog, as they're 8-4 ATS their last 12 in this role. Meanwhile, Minnesota is 28-40-4 ATS as a favorite away from home vs. non-division foes. And it's 4-12 ATS its last 16 playoff games away from home. Finally, the Rams fall into a 55-16 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams with worse W/L records. Take Los Angeles. Good luck as always...Al McMordie.
|
01-12-25 |
Packers +5.5 v. Eagles |
Top |
10-22 |
Loss |
-115 |
30 h 20 m |
Show
|
At 4:30 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Green Bay Packers + the points over Philadelphia. The Packers lost to the Chicago Bears, 24-22, as a 10-point favorite last weekend. I like Green Bay to bounce back on Sunday, as it will play this game with revenge from a loss to the Eagles in Sao Paulo, Brazil, on opening weekend. And revenge-minded teams have cashed 78% in the NFL playoffs vs. non-division foes, if our revenger was off an upset loss to end the regular season. Additionally, the Packers are 21-12 ATS off a SU loss, while Philadelphia is 4-12-1 ATS its last 17 vs. foes off a SU loss (and 1-8 ATS its last 9 vs. foes off back-to-back losses). Take Green Bay. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|
01-11-25 |
Steelers +9.5 v. Ravens |
Top |
14-28 |
Loss |
-105 |
10 h 41 m |
Show
|
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Steelers + the points over the Baltimore Ravens. This is arguably the league's best current rivalry. And, like many heated rivalries, the underdog has barked loudly. Indeed, the underdog has won 10 of the last 14 meetings in this series OUTRIGHT. Even better: when the underdog has also owned a worse W/L record, it's gone 13-0 ATS over the last 13 in this situation! We'll grab the points with Mike Tomlin's men. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|
01-11-25 |
Chargers v. Texans +3 |
Top |
12-32 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 4:30 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Houston Texans + the points over the Los Angeles Chargers. The Chargers will be playing their 3rd straight road game on Saturday. And that doesn't bode well, as teams playing their 3rd straight road game are a poor 27-43-3 ATS in the Playoffs. Even worse: favorites are a soft 49-66-1 ATS in their first playoff game of the season, if they weren't a playoff team the previous year. Take Houston + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|
01-05-25 |
Vikings v. Lions UNDER 56 |
Top |
9-31 |
Win
|
100 |
76 h 59 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Minnesota/Detroit game. The Lions have played their last 4 games OVER the total. But off that string of high-scoring games, we'll look for a lower-scoring game on Sunday night. Indeed, NFL teams off EXACTLY 4 Overs have gone 136-72-5 Under the total in division games with O/U lines greater than 36 points. Take the Lions and Vikings UNDER. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|
01-05-25 |
Dolphins v. Jets +1 |
Top |
20-32 |
Win
|
100 |
72 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets + the points over Miami. The Jets were blown out, 40-14, last week by Buffalo. We'll take New York to rebound off that blowout loss, as NFL home dogs (or PK) with a losing record have gone 58-43 ATS in division games off a loss by more than 25 points. Take the Jets. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|
01-05-25 |
Seahawks -6.5 v. Rams |
Top |
30-25 |
Loss |
-106 |
72 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Seahawks minus the points over the Los Angeles Rams. Sean McVay has signaled that he plays to rest his starters. We'll fade Los Angeles, as it is a soft 18-31 ATS off back to back wins in McVay's coaching tenure, including 6-15 ATS at home. Take Seattle.
|
01-05-25 |
Chiefs v. Broncos -10.5 |
Top |
0-38 |
Win
|
100 |
72 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Denver Broncos minus the points over the Kansas City Chiefs. Andy Reid won't play his starters in this meaningless game, so the Chiefs have been installed as a big underdog. We'll take Denver to bounce back off its two losses to the Chargers and Bengals, as winning teams have gone 35-20 ATS when favored by more than 3 points against foes off back to back wins. Take Denver. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|
01-05-25 |
Bills v. Patriots +2.5 |
Top |
16-23 |
Win
|
100 |
69 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 1 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots + the points over Buffalo. The Bills defeated New England by 3 points two weeks ago. We'll grab the points with New England, as it's 22-7-2 ATS at home when playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season. Take the Patriots.
|
01-05-25 |
Panthers +9 v. Falcons |
Top |
44-38 |
Win
|
100 |
69 h 46 m |
Show
|
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers + the points over Atlanta. The Falcons have a negative scoring margin, at -1.75, but are laying north of a touchdown. I don't like laying 7+ points with teams that have negative scoring margins, as they've cashed just 42.8% since 1980. Take Carolina.
|
01-05-25 |
Commanders v. Cowboys +6.5 |
Top |
23-19 |
Win
|
100 |
69 h 46 m |
Show
|
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Cowboys + the points over Washington. The Cowboys were blown out last week at Philly, while Washington won in overtime vs. Atlanta. We'll grab the points with Dallas as the underdog in this NFC East division rivalry has gone 40-18-1 ATS if its opponent wasn't off a SU loss. Take the Cowboys + the points.
|
01-05-25 |
Giants +3 v. Eagles |
Top |
13-20 |
Loss |
-108 |
69 h 45 m |
Show
|
At 1 pm, our selection is on the New York Giants + the points over Philadelphia. The Giants are an awesome 80-47-1 ATS away from home when it doesn't own the better W/L record, including 28-15 ATS vs. division foes. Take New York.
|
01-05-25 |
Saints v. Bucs -13.5 |
Top |
19-27 |
Loss |
-108 |
69 h 43 m |
Show
|
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Bucs minus the points over New Orleans. The Saints mustered just 10 points last week at home vs. the Las Vegas Raiders. We'll fade New Orleans in this final game of the season, as road teams have cashed just 36% since 1980 vs. winning foes in the season finale after scoring 10 points or less at home in their previous game. Take Tampa.
|
01-05-25 |
Bears v. Packers -10 |
Top |
24-22 |
Loss |
-108 |
69 h 43 m |
Show
|
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Green Bay Packers minus the points over Chicago. Green Bay lost last week to Minnesota. We'll take the Packers at home vs. Chicago, as the Bears are 11-33 ATS on the road vs. winning foes that weren't off a SU/ATS win. Take Green Bay.
|
01-05-25 |
Jaguars v. Colts -4.5 |
Top |
23-26 |
Loss |
-112 |
69 h 42 m |
Show
|
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Indianapolis Colts minus the points over Jacksonville. We played against the Colts last week, and got the $$$ with New York, which upset Indy, 45-33. We'll switch gears and play on the Colts this week, as they're a solid 61-36-1 ATS off a straight-up loss. Take Indianapolis.
|
01-05-25 |
Jaguars v. Colts UNDER 44 |
Top |
23-26 |
Loss |
-110 |
69 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Under in the Indianapolis/Jacksonville game. Indianapolis' division home games are 72-43-1 UNDER the total since 1990. I look for another low-scoring game on this Sunday. Take the Under.
|
01-05-25 |
Giants v. Eagles UNDER 37.5 |
Top |
13-20 |
Win
|
100 |
69 h 37 m |
Show
|
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Under in the Philadelphia/New York game. Last week, the Eagles put up 41 points vs. Dallas. But off that offensive explosion, I expect Philly's offense to take a holiday on Sunday -- especially since their key personnel will be on the sidelines. The Eagles are 21-8-1 Under after scoring 40+ points. Even better: the Giants are 53-26-1 UNDER in their last 80 games. I won't fade those stats, and look for a very low-scoring game in Philadelphia on Sunday. Take the Under.
|
01-05-25 |
Panthers v. Falcons UNDER 48 |
Top |
44-38 |
Loss |
-110 |
69 h 37 m |
Show
|
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Under in the Carolina/Atlanta game. This series has largely favored the Under, as the Under has gone 36-19-3 the last 58 meetings. That bodes well for a low-scoring game on Sunday. Also, the Under falls into a Totals system of mine which is 346-240-12. Take the Under. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|
01-04-25 |
Bengals v. Steelers UNDER 48 |
Top |
19-17 |
Win
|
100 |
59 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bengals and Pittsburgh Steelers to go Under the total. Pittsburgh has played 19 of its last 28 home games Under the total, including 9-0 UNDER when the O/U line was greater than 41 points. Take the Under. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|
01-04-25 |
Browns v. Ravens -17.5 |
Top |
10-35 |
Win
|
100 |
56 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 4:30 pm, our selection is on the Baltimore Ravens minus the points over Cleveland. The Browns upset the Ravens, 29-24, earlier this season. We'll take Baltimore on Saturday, as Cleveland is 5-24 ATS when playing a revenge-minded foe it defeated earlier in the season.
|
01-04-25 |
Browns v. Ravens OVER 41 |
Top |
10-35 |
Win
|
100 |
56 h 46 m |
Show
|
At 4:30 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Baltimore/Cleveland game. The Ravens are 9-4-1 OVER their last 14 home games, while Cleveland is 13-5 Over their last 18 road games. I look for another high-scoring game on Saturday. Take the Over.
|
12-30-24 |
Lions v. 49ers UNDER 50.5 |
Top |
40-34 |
Loss |
-110 |
9 h 18 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the 49ers/Lions game. Detroit enters this Monday night tilt off 3 straight high-scoring affairs, in which they scored 34, 42 and 34 points. Off those 3 high scores, we'll look for the Lions + Niners to go UNDER, as Monday Night Football games have gone 70.5% Under if a team scored more than 30 points in each of its 3 previous games. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|
12-30-24 |
Lions v. 49ers +3.5 |
Top |
40-34 |
Loss |
-108 |
9 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco 49ers + the points over Detroit. These two teams met in last year's NFC conference championship game. San Francisco won that game, 34-31, to reach the Super Bowl. This season, the 49ers won't reach the post-season, while Detroit is the odds-on choice to represent the NFC in the title game. I like the 49ers as a home underdog tonight. It's San Francisco's final home game of the season, and it enters off back to back upset losses to the Rams and Dolphins. San Francisco is a terrific 81-47-3 ATS off an upset loss. And teams playing their final home game of the season on Monday Night Football have gone 33-21-1 ATS. Take the 49ers. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|
12-29-24 |
Falcons +3.5 v. Commanders |
Top |
24-30 |
Loss |
-108 |
12 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons + the points over the Washington Commanders. Last week, Washington stormed back in the final seconds to defeat Philly, as a 3.5-point home dog. Off that huge upset win over the division-leading Eagles, we'll fade Washington this evening. The Commanders are a soft 86-120 ATS as a regular season home favorite. Even worse: home favorites off upset home wins have covered just 44% over 45 years. Take Atlanta + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|
12-29-24 |
Dolphins v. Browns +6.5 |
Top |
20-3 |
Loss |
-108 |
82 h 20 m |
Show
|
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns + the points over Miami. The Browns have lost their last four games, both SU and ATS. Still, I'll grab the points with the Browns, as in the final 2 weeks of the NFL season, home dogs have cashed 61.2% since 1980 off 4 SU/ATS losses. Take Cleveland. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|
12-29-24 |
Colts v. Giants +7.5 |
Top |
33-45 |
Win
|
100 |
79 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 1 pm, our selection is on the New York Giants + the points over Indianapolis. This is the Giants' final home game of the season. And home dogs have gone 77-49 ATS in their final home game off back-to-back SU/ATS losses. Take New York + the points.
|
12-29-24 |
Titans v. Jaguars OVER 39.5 |
Top |
13-20 |
Loss |
-109 |
79 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 1 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Tennessee/Jacksonville game. These two teams played a low-scoring game in the season's first meeting, with the Jaguars prevailing, 10-6. I'll look for a relatively high-scoring game on Sunday, as NFL games have gone over the total 58.2% if the previous meeting totaled less than 35 points. Take the Over.
|
12-26-24 |
Seahawks v. Bears +4.5 |
Top |
6-3 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 28 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Bears + the points over Seattle. Chicago will be playing its last home game of the season, and will seek to snap a long 9-game losing streak tonight. Chicago falls into 13-1 and 72-26 ATS 'Last Home Game' systems of mine that play on certain teams in their final home game off SU losses. Also, the Bears are a super 47-27 ATS at home off back to back losses, if they're not favored by more than 3 points. Take the Bears + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|
12-26-24 |
Seahawks v. Bears UNDER 42.5 |
Top |
6-3 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Bears and Seattle Seahawks to go UNDER the total. The Bears have been installed as a home dog in this game. And Chicago has gone 38-22 UNDER when installed as a home dog, if the O/U line was between 41 and 48 points. Additionally, the Seahawks are 68-51-1 UNDER as a road favorite. I'll look for a low-scoring game on Thursday night. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|
12-25-24 |
Chiefs v. Steelers +3 |
Top |
29-10 |
Loss |
-115 |
31 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Steelers + the points over the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs come into this game off a 27-19 victory over Houston, while the Steelers were blown out by Baltimore, 34-17. We'll fade KC on Christmas, as defending Super Bowl champs are an awful 2-13 ATS on the road off a SU win, if they were playing a winning, non-division foe. Even better: the Steelers are an awesome 18-0 ATS off a SU loss, in which they gave up 30+ points, if they weren't getting 6+ points in their current game. Take Pittsburgh. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|
12-22-24 |
Bucs v. Cowboys +4 |
Top |
24-26 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Cowboys + the points over Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers pulled off a massive upset last week, when they pummeled the Los Angeles Chargers, 40-17. But off that huge 23-point win, I'll fade Tampa, as NFL favorites are a dismal 85-109 ATS off a 10-point (or greater) upset win. Take Dallas + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|
12-22-24 |
Patriots v. Bills UNDER 46.5 |
Top |
21-24 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 26 m |
Show
|
At 1 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Buffalo/New England game. The Bills come into this game off back to back high-scoring affairs vs. the Rams and Lions. And Buffalo allowed 44 points to L.A. and 42 to Detroit. I'll take the UNDER in this game, as NFL teams have gone 157-116 UNDER in games with O/U lines between 42.5 and 56, if they gave up more than 33 points in each of their two previous games. Take New England + Buffalo Under the total. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|
12-22-24 |
Vikings v. Seahawks +3 |
Top |
27-24 |
Push |
0 |
10 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Seahawks + the points over the Minnesota Vikings. This is Seattle's last home game of the season. And winning teams have cashed 60% since 1980 off a straight-up loss, if they were playing their final home game, and installed as an underdog (or PK). Seattle's also 25-15 ATS its last 40 as a home dog, while the Vikings are a poor 54-72-5 ATS as a road favorite, including 6-14 ATS vs. winning foes. Take the Seahawks. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|
12-22-24 |
Lions v. Bears UNDER 47.5 |
Top |
34-17 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Under in the Detroit/Chicago game. The Lions come into this game off back to back Overs vs. the Packers (34-31) and Bills (48-42). Off those two high-scoring games, we'll take the UNDER, as NFL teams have gone 43-26 UNDER following two games where 65+ points were scored in each. Take the Under.
|
12-22-24 |
Eagles v. Commanders +4 |
Top |
33-36 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 3 m |
Show
|
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Washington Commanders + the points over Philadelphia. This is the Eagles' last road game of the season, and they have 2 more home games on deck. Since 1990, NFL teams have cashed just 73 of 170 when they were playing their final road game with at least 2 more home games to go. Additionally, the Commanders are 47-27 ATS as underdogs vs. foes off a SU/ATS win, if the Commanders were also off a win. Grab the points with the home underdog.
|
12-22-24 |
Lions v. Bears +7 |
Top |
34-17 |
Loss |
-116 |
7 h 60 m |
Show
|
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Bears + the points over the Detroit Lions. The Bears have been installed as a home dog vs. Detroit, which defeated the Bears on Thanksgiving Day by 3 points. We'll grab the points, as Chicago is a super 12-3 ATS as a home dog of +6 (or more) points, if it didn't cover the spread in either of its two previous games. Additionally, in the season's final 3 games, NFL road teams with a win percentage > .800, have covered just 1 of 13 since 1986 vs. foes off a SU/ATS loss, if our home team was playing with revenge from a loss suffered earlier in the season. Take Chicago. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|
12-22-24 |
Rams v. Jets UNDER 47 |
Top |
19-9 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Jets/Rams to go UNDER the total. The line in this game has ticked up to 47, and that's all I need to pull the trigger on the Under, since it now falls into a super 334-238-12 Totals system of mine. Additionally, the Rams are 42-22-4 Under vs. foes off 3+ Overs, including 11-0 Under their last 11 (and 20-3-3 Under their last 26) if the O/U line was greater than 46 points. Take the Under. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|
12-21-24 |
Texans +3.5 v. Chiefs |
Top |
19-27 |
Loss |
-108 |
52 h 54 m |
Show
|
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Houston Texans + the points over Kansas City. The Chiefs covered last week vs. Cleveland, but that was their first point spread win in eight games. We'll fade Kansas City on Saturday, as defending Super Bowl champs have gone 3-13 ATS when they were off 4+ wins, and favored by 3+ points (including 0-6 ATS vs. a foe off a SU win). Additionally, the road team has gone 9-2 ATS in this series when the line was less than 8 points. And, finally, the underdog has gone 24-13-1 ATS in Houston's last 38 games, and 18-9 ATS in KC's last 27 games. Take the Texans + the points. Good luck as always...Al McMordie.
|
12-21-24 |
Texans v. Chiefs OVER 41.5 |
Top |
19-27 |
Win
|
100 |
52 h 53 m |
Show
|
At 1 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs and Houston Texans to go OVER the total. The Chiefs have played their last 3 games under the total, but they are 29-18-1 OVER off 3+ unders. Likewise, the Texans have gone under in their last two games. But Houston is 40-24 OVER following back-to-back unders. The last 5 meetings between these clubs have sailed OVER the total, and I look for a relatively high-scoring game on Saturday. Take the OVER. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|
12-15-24 |
Chiefs v. Browns +4 |
Top |
21-7 |
Loss |
-108 |
98 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 1 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns + the points over the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs have now failed to cover the spread in each of their last 7 games. We'll fade Patrick Mahomes & Co. as road favorites on Sunday, as winning teams are a wallet-breaking 30% ATS since 1980 off 7+ ATS losses. Moreover, defending Super Bowl champs are a poor 21-39 ATS away from home, when favored off a SU Win and ATS Loss in their previous game. Take Cleveland + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|
12-12-24 |
Rams v. 49ers -2.5 |
Top |
12-6 |
Loss |
-110 |
33 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the San Francisco 49ers minus the points over Los Angeles. These two division rivals met in L.A. earlier this season, and the Rams upset the Niners, as a 6-point home underdog, 27-24. We'll take San Francisco on Thursday, as it's cashed 67% over the last 45 seasons when favored and playing with revenge from an upset loss earlier in the season. Additionally, the Rams are a poor 16-30 ATS off back to back wins during coach Sean McVay's tenure. Lay the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|
12-09-24 |
Bengals -5.5 v. Cowboys |
Top |
27-20 |
Win
|
100 |
105 h 31 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bengals minus the points over Dallas. The Bengals come into this game off 3 straight losses, including a 44-38 defeat as a home favorite vs. Pittsburgh last Sunday. We'll take the Bengals to bounce back in Dallas, as NFL teams that scored more than 36 points in defeat have gone 43-23 ATS in their next game, including a perfect 5-0 ATS on Monday Nights. Look for Joe Burrow & Co. to roast the Cowboys. Lay the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|
12-09-24 |
Bengals v. Cowboys UNDER 49.5 |
Top |
27-20 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 27 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati/Dallas game to go UNDER the total. The Bengals gave up 44 points last week to the Pittsburgh Steelers. But off that defensive debacle, we'll look for a much better defensive effort tonight. Indeed, Cincy has gone 65-45 UNDER the total following a game where they gave up 33+ points, including 39-17 UNDER on the road. And Monday Night Football games, where the home team was installed as an underdog, have gone 44-20-2 UNDER (compared to 53-46 OVER when the home team was favored), including 30-7-2 UNDER when the O/U line was between 43 and 50 points. Take the UNDER. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|
12-08-24 |
Browns v. Steelers UNDER 43.5 |
Top |
14-27 |
Win
|
100 |
73 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 1 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the UNDER in the Pittsburgh Steelers/Cleveland Browns game. These two teams played very high-scoring games last week. The Steelers won, 44-38, while the Browns lost at Denver, 41-32. Over the last 45 years, games between teams that each played a high-scoring game the previous week that totaled more than 72 points have gone UNDER the total 75% of the time. Take the Under. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|
12-08-24 |
Saints v. Giants +5 |
Top |
14-11 |
Win
|
100 |
73 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 1 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the New York Giants + the points over the New Orleans Saints. The Giants have lost their last 7 in a row -- both SU and ATS. I'll take New York + the points, as teams off 7+ point spread defeats have gone 16-4-2 ATS when priced as an underdog of less than 6 points. Take New York. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|
12-01-24 |
Titans v. Commanders -5 |
Top |
19-42 |
Win
|
100 |
51 h 1 m |
Show
|
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Washington Commanders minus the points over Tennessee. We played on the Titans last week, and were rewarded with a huge upset win over the Texans, as an 8-point road underdog. But off that stellar game, we'll fade Tennessee on Sunday, as road underdogs, off upset road wins as an underdog of 8+ points, have gone 35-58 ATS. Take the Commanders.
|
12-01-24 |
Steelers v. Bengals UNDER 48 |
Top |
44-38 |
Loss |
-110 |
51 h 1 m |
Show
|
At 1 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Pittsburgh/Cincinnati game. The Bengals have gone Over in eight of their last 10, and their games are averaging 53.9 ppg this season. But the Steelers are one of four teams whose defensive ppg is less than 17 points. And only one of Pittsburgh's games had an O/U line this high. That was its game vs. the Ravens -- another team playing high-scoring games. Baltimore's games were averaging 57.1 ppg, but its game vs. Pittsburgh finished 18-16. The Steelers are 47-26 UNDER the total in games with O/U lines at 47+ points. Take the Under.
|
12-01-24 |
Texans v. Jaguars +4 |
Top |
23-20 |
Win
|
100 |
51 h 0 m |
Show
|
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Jacksonville Jaguars + the points over Houston. The Jags had their Bye week last weekend following their 52-6 loss to Detroit. I like them to bounce back from that 46-point shellacking, as rested home dogs, with a losing record, off a SU/ATS loss, have gone 14-2 ATS vs. unrested division foes with a winning record. Take Jacksonville. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|
12-01-24 |
Chargers v. Falcons UNDER 48 |
Top |
17-13 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 1 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Los Angeles Chargers/Atlanta Falcons game. Both of these teams have largely played unders this season. The Chargers are 7-4 to the Under while Atlanta is also 7-4 under. And the Falcons are 29-10 UNDER in non-division home games, including 5-0 UNDER the last five. Take the Under.
|
12-01-24 |
Chargers v. Falcons +1 |
Top |
17-13 |
Loss |
-108 |
6 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons + the points over the Los Angeles Chargers. The Falcons were blown out, 38-6, last week by Denver. I like the Falcons to bounce back at home this afternoon, as home dogs (or PK) have gone 113-74 ATS off a road loss by 28+ points. Take Atlanta.
|
12-01-24 |
Colts v. Patriots +2.5 |
Top |
25-24 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots + the points over Indianapolis. In the last 5 weeks of an NFL season, home dogs of less than 11 points (or PK) have covered 57.1% since 1980 off back to back ATS losses. And New England is 58-33-1 ATS off a loss, if they weren't favored by 7+ points. Take the home dog Patriots.
|
12-01-24 |
Seahawks v. Jets |
Top |
26-21 |
Loss |
-108 |
6 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 1 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets + the points over Seattle. The Jets are 18-0 ATS when priced from -1.5 to +11.5 points in the 2nd of back to back home games, if they were not off a SU/ATS win, and their opponent has a winning record. Take New York. Good luck as always...Al McMordie.
|
11-28-24 |
Giants +3.5 v. Cowboys |
Top |
20-27 |
Loss |
-108 |
30 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 4:30 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the New York Giants + the points over the Dallas Cowboys. The Giants no doubt laid an egg last week vs. Tampa Bay. But I expect a huge bounce-back on this Thanksgiving Day. We'll grab the points, as underdogs in NFC East division games have gone 104-75 ATS if they owned a losing record, and their opponent was off a SU/ATS win. With Dallas in off its stunning upset as a double-digit dog at Washington, we'll fade the Cowboys on Thursday. Take New York. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|
11-24-24 |
Eagles v. Rams +3 |
Top |
37-20 |
Loss |
-116 |
17 h 42 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Rams + the points over the Philadelphia Eagles. The Rams lost by 9 points to the Eagles last season. I'll take L.A. to avenge that defeat, as revenge-minded home dogs have cashed 67% since 1980 vs. non-division foes, if our home pup had a .500 (or better) record both this season, and last season. The Rams are 5-2-1 their last 8 as home underdogs, while the Eagles have covered just 10 of their last 27 as road favorites. Take Los Angeles. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|
11-24-24 |
Broncos v. Raiders +6 |
Top |
29-19 |
Loss |
-120 |
12 h 26 m |
Show
|
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Las Vegas Raiders + the points over the Denver Broncos. Last week, the Broncos blew out the Falcons, while the Raiders were blown out by Miami. But off those disparate results, I'll side with the home dog Raiders on Sunday. Since 1980, NFL home dogs have gone 106-84 ATS if they were off a double-digit SU/ATS loss, and were matched up against a division foe off a double-digit SU/ATS win. We'll grab the points with Las Vegas. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|
11-24-24 |
Titans +9 v. Texans |
Top |
32-27 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 20 m |
Show
|
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Tennessee Titans + the points over Houston. The Titans are mired in a 6-game point spread losing streak, while Houston has covered its last two. That will keep many bettors away from them this afternoon. But not me. Indeed, NFL teams that were on a 6-game (or worse) ATS losing streak have gone 11-0 ATS their last 11 vs. foes off back to back point spread wins. Moreover, Houston is a horrid 2-10 ATS its last 10 as a favorite of more than 7 points. Take Tennessee. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|
11-24-24 |
Vikings v. Bears +3.5 |
Top |
30-27 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 18 m |
Show
|
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Bears + the points over the Minnesota Vikings. This is the Bears' 3rd straight game at home, while it's Minnesota's 3rd straight game on the road. We'll fade the road-weary Vikings, as teams playing their 3rd straight road game have gone 7-21 ATS vs. foes playing their 3rd straight at home. Even better: the Bears are a super 47-26 ATS at home off back-to-back losses, if they weren't favored by more than 3 points. Take Chicago.
|
11-24-24 |
Cowboys +11 v. Commanders |
Top |
34-26 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 18 m |
Show
|
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Cowboys + the points over Washington. The underdog in this long-standing rivalry has gone 55-32-1 ATS. That bodes well for the Cowboys. As does the fact that Washington is a horrible favorite, including 16-46 ATS when laying more than 5 points. It's also a wallet-breaking 14-20 straight-up and 8-25-1 ATS as a favorite vs. Dallas. Take the Cowboys.
|
11-24-24 |
Bucs v. Giants +6 |
Top |
30-7 |
Loss |
-105 |
9 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 1 pm, our selection is on the New York Giants + the points over Tampa Bay. The Giants had last week off, and the Bye week tends to benefit the worst (record-wise) NFL teams. To wit: sub-.400 teams off their Bye week have gone 40-14 ATS when getting more than 5 points. Take the Giants. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|
11-21-24 |
Steelers v. Browns +3.5 |
Top |
19-24 |
Win
|
100 |
15 h 59 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns + the points over Pittsburgh. Interestingly, the 2-8 Browns are a relatively short underdog vs. the 8-2 Steelers tonight. The knee-jerk reaction might be to lay the points with the first place Steelers. But be careful. Consider that, over the past 45 years, NFL teams with a win percentage differential of at least 60%, have covered just 25% at Game 11 forward, when they weren't favored by 6+ points. Even better: the Browns enter this division rivalry game off a 35-14 upset loss at the hands of the Saints last week. And NFL home dogs have cashed 60% of division games since 1980 off an upset loss by more than 10 points. Grab the points with the Browns. Good luck as always...Al McMordie.
|
11-18-24 |
Texans v. Cowboys +7 |
Top |
34-10 |
Loss |
-105 |
13 h 54 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Cowboys + the points over the Houston Texans. The Texans are 6-4, but have a negative scoring margin on the season. They're favored by a touchdown tonight, and I don't like laying this many points with teams that have negative scoring margins. Since 1980, favorites of -7+ points, that have been outscored on the season, have gone 238-320-9 ATS, including 19-38 ATS as road favorites, and 2-6 ATS this season. Take the Cowboys as a big home dog tonight. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|
11-17-24 |
Bengals v. Chargers UNDER 48.5 |
Top |
27-34 |
Loss |
-110 |
26 h 27 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Under in the Los Angeles Chargers/Cincinnati Bengals game. The Chargers have played seven of their nine games Under the total this season, and this is the highest Over/Under line for Jim Harbaugh's men this season. And L.A.'s two games that went over (23-16 vs. Denver; 27-17 vs. Tennessee) only did so with somewhat meaningless, last-second scores. In last week's game, Tennessee was down 17 when it scored a TD with just 54 seconds left to send that game Over its 40.5-point total. And Denver scored a FG with just 64 seconds left, to send that game Over its 37.5-point total. So just 118 seconds have separated the Chargers from being 9-0 Under this season. Additionally, the Bengals have gone 37-11 Under when playing away from home, if the O/U line was greater than 46 points. Take the Under. Good luck as always...Al McMordie.
|
11-17-24 |
Colts v. Jets -3.5 |
Top |
28-27 |
Loss |
-116 |
19 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 1 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets minus the points over Indianapolis. The Jets were favored last week at Arizona, but managed to score just 6 points in a 31-6 blowout defeat. I'll take the Flyboys to bounce back on Sunday, as teams off upset road defeats, in which they scored less than 7 points, have cashed 71.1% since 1980 when favored by 3 (or more) points. Lay the wood with New York. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|
11-17-24 |
Packers v. Bears OVER 40 |
Top |
20-19 |
Loss |
-115 |
19 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Over in the Green Bay/Chicago game. The Bears fired offensive coordinator, Shane Waldron, on Tuesday, as they were unhappy with Chicago ranking #24 in offensive efficiency, and dead last in yardage. Thomas Brown, who was serving as the passing game coordinator, will take over. I think the coaching change will provide a spark to the Bears' offense. I like the Over, as the Packers have been a team which tends to go Under at home, but Over the total away from Lambeau Field. Indeed, dating back to 2012, they're 64-40 Over the total on the road, including 36-15 Over when the O/U line was 47 or less. Additionally, the Packers are 68-37 Over the total after not scoring 17+ points in their previous game. Take the Over.
|
11-17-24 |
Ravens v. Steelers UNDER 48.5 |
Top |
16-18 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Under in the Baltimore/Pittsburgh game. This is one of the fiercest rivalries in the NFL. It's generally favored the underdog, and has been low-scoring. The Under has now cashed 7 straight in the series. And when the O/U line was 39+ points, the Under has gone 28-14-2. Take the Under.
|
11-17-24 |
Vikings v. Titans +6 |
Top |
23-13 |
Loss |
-108 |
19 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Tennessee Titans + the points over the Minnesota Vikings. The Titans have lost their last five games to the spread. I'll take them as a home underdog, as teams on 3-game (or worse) ATS losing streaks, have gone 135-96-8 ATS as home pups less than 11 points vs. non-division foes. And the Vikes are a poor 29-51 ATS as a roaad favorite vs. foes not off an ATS win. Grab the points with Tennessee. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|
11-11-24 |
Dolphins v. Rams UNDER 49 |
Top |
23-15 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the Miami Dolphins and Los Angeles Rams to go UNDER the total. Miami has had a disappointing season, as it's 2-6, while the Rams enter with a 4-4 record. The Dolphins have gone 56-41 Under the total on the road when they were a losing team, including 28-9 Under if the O/U line was greater than 44 points. Meanwhile, the Rams have gone 29-16 Under the total in their last 45 home games, including 9-0 their last 9 (and 15-2 their last 17) when the O/U line was greater than 47 points. And, regardless of home/away venue, when the O/U line was 49+ points, and the Rams have played a team without a winning record, the Rams have gone 11-0 Under the total. The Rams also have played their last 4 Monday Night Football games Under the total, as well as Unders their last four games against the Dolphins. Finally, the Under falls into a Totals system of mine which is 340-237. Take tonight's game Under. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|
11-10-24 |
Lions v. Texans +4 |
Top |
26-23 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Houston Texans + the points over Detroit. The Lions had a huge division win last Sunday. They were 6-1 entering the game vs. 6-2 Green Bay, so the winner was going to be all alone in first place. Detroit won that game, and now has to go on the road to face a Houston team off a SU loss to the Jets on Thursday night. I’ll take Houston, as Detroit falls into a negative 9-26 ATS system of mine which goes against certain teams off big division wins. Also, teams off Thursday games have had an edge over unrested foes off a Saturday, Sunday or Monday game, going 352-312 ATS. Take Houston + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|
11-10-24 |
Jets -1.5 v. Cardinals |
Top |
6-31 |
Loss |
-108 |
12 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets minus the points over the Arizona Cardinals. The Jets will be playing this game with additional days of rest, since they last played on Thursday Night Football. And NFL teams that played on Thursday have gone 352-312 ATS vs. unrested foes that last played on Saturday, Sunday or Monday, so a slight edge to New York. Additionally, the Jets fall into several of my best NFL systems that have records of 53-18, 92-57 and 83-44 ATS since 1980. Finally, in his career as a starting QB, Aaron Rodgers' teams have gone 14-6 ATS away from home, when playing a foe off back-to-back SU/ATS wins, including 8-1 ATS when not getting more than 2 points. Take New York. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|
11-10-24 |
Titans +7.5 v. Chargers |
Top |
17-27 |
Loss |
-108 |
12 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Tennessee Titans + the points over the Los Angeles Chargers. The Titans won in overtime, 20-17, last week, but failed to cover the closing 3.5-point line, while the Chargers won and covered their 2nd straight game, with a 27-10 blowout of Cleveland, as a 2-point favorite. I love Tennessee + the points, as it falls into 28-3, 32-6 and 48-16 ATS systems of mine. Additionally, the Chargers are a wallet-busting 7-17 ATS off back to back point spread wins, while the Titans are a solid 20-12 ATS vs. foes off back to back ATS wins. Finally, NFL teams (like the Chargers) off back to back covers by 9+ points, have gone 1-12-1 ATS their last 14 vs. foes off 4+ ATS losses. Take the Titans. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|
11-10-24 |
Falcons v. Saints +3.5 |
Top |
17-20 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 60 m |
Show
|
At 1 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Saints + the points over Atlanta. The Saints lost their 7th straight last week, and coach Dennis Allen was fired. Darren Rizzi will serve as interim head coach. I'll take New Orleans as a home dog, as it is 69-38 ATS when matched up against .500 (or better) foes off a SU win. Also, NFL teams are 28-12 ATS in their first two games following a head coach's departure, if it occurred prior to Game 11 of a season. Take the Saints. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|
11-10-24 |
49ers v. Bucs UNDER 50.5 |
Top |
23-20 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 59 m |
Show
|
At 1 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco 49ers and Tampa Bay Bucs to go UNDER the total. The Buccaneers have played 6 straight Overs and have given up 30, 31, and 41 points in their last three games. I'll look for a much lower-scoring game on Sunday, as NFL teams that gave up 30+ points in each of their two previous games have gone UNDER the total 58% when the O/U line was 50+ points. Additionally, since Kyle Shanahan took over as head coach, the 49ers are 9-1-1 UNDER off a bye week, while the Bucs are 5-0 UNDER their last 5 when playing with a week off. Take the Under. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|
11-07-24 |
Bengals v. Ravens UNDER 53.5 |
Top |
34-35 |
Loss |
-115 |
11 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Under in the Cincinnati/Baltimore game. Both of these teams tallied 41 points lasts week. The Bengals blew out Las Vegas, 41-24, while the Ravens routed Denver, 41-10. I'll look for a much lower-scoring game tonite, as NFL games have gone UNDER the total 60.4% since 1980 if both teams scored 38+ points in their previous game, and the O/U line was 54 points or less. Take the Under. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|
11-03-24 |
Lions v. Packers +2.5 |
Top |
24-14 |
Loss |
-100 |
9 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Green Bay Packers + the points over Detroit. The Lions have won and covered 5 straight after a 52-14 blowout win over Tennessee. We'll fade Detroit as a road favorite at Green Bay, as NFL road teams off 3 SU/ATS wins are a poor 86-124-4 ATS vs. .666 (or better) foes. Even worse for Detroit: it's 1-12-1 ATS on the division road, off a home win, if it owned a win percentage greater than 0.667. Take Green Bay. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|
11-03-24 |
Lions v. Packers UNDER 47.5 |
Top |
24-14 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 3 m |
Show
|
At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Detroit/Green Bay game. The Lions have played their last 4 games OVER the total, including a 52-14 blowout of Tennessee last week. I will look for a lower-scoring game this afternoon, as road teams off 4+ Overs have gone Under 60.2% since 1980 vs. division rivals, including 73.9% Under if they scored 40+ points in their previous game. Moreover, there is rain in the forecast today, with winds at 15 to 25 mph. Take the Under. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|
11-03-24 |
Jaguars +7.5 v. Eagles |
Top |
23-28 |
Win
|
100 |
43 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Jacksonville Jaguars + the points over the Philadelphia Eagles. This season, underdogs of +6 (or more) points started out like a house on fire, as they were 16-3 ATS through the first five weeks. They've come down a bit since, but are still 21-12-1 ATS on the season, including 7-0-1 ATS if they were off an ATS win. And, of course, the Jaguars are off a point spread win, as they covered in last week's loss to Green Bay. The Eagles are a soft 45-67 ATS when priced from -3 to -9.5 points. Take Jacksonville. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
|
11-03-24 |
Patriots v. Titans -3.5 |
Top |
17-20 |
Loss |
-100 |
40 h 3 m |
Show
|
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Tennessee Titans minus the points over New England. The Titans were demolished, 52-14 last week. And they've lost 3 straight, overall. I'll take Tennessee to bounce back off that blowout loss, as home teams have gone 7-0 ATS their last seven (and 23-6 ATS their last 29) off a loss by 38+ points, if they also lost 2 games back. Lay the points.
|
11-03-24 |
Dolphins +6.5 v. Bills |
Top |
27-30 |
Win
|
100 |
40 h 2 m |
Show
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At 1 pm, our selection is on the Miami Dolphins + the points over the Buffalo Bills. The Dolphins were upset by Arizona last Sunday, and were also upset by Buffalo in the season's first meeting. I'll take Miami to avenge that upset loss, as road dogs of +5 (or more) points have gone 82-49 ATS if they were upset in the season's prior meeting, including 22-9 ATS if our road dog was also off an upset loss in its previous game. Take Miami.
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11-03-24 |
Cowboys v. Falcons UNDER 52 |
Top |
21-27 |
Win
|
100 |
40 h 0 m |
Show
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At 1 pm, our selection is on the Under in the Dallas Cowboys/Atlanta Falcons game. The Cowboys enter this game off back to back Overs, as they were blown out, 47-9, by Detroit, and lost to San Francisco, 30-24. I will take this game UNDER, as Dallas is 29-17 Under the total off back-to-back Overs, while Atlanta is 33-21 Under vs. an opponent off back-to-back Overs. Take the Under. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
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11-03-24 |
Saints v. Panthers UNDER 43.5 |
Top |
22-23 |
Loss |
-105 |
40 h 60 m |
Show
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At 1 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Saints and Carolina Panthers to go UNDER the total. The first meeting between these two NFC South division rivals was in Week 1, and the Saints blew out the Panthers, 47-10. That game went over the total of 41.5 by 15.5 points. But prior to that meeting, these two teams had gone Under in 7 straight games. I'll look for a reversion to the norm on Sunday, as the Under falls into a 339-255 Totals system of mine, as well as another 145-87 system. Take the Under.
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11-03-24 |
Patriots v. Titans UNDER 38 |
Top |
17-20 |
Win
|
100 |
40 h 59 m |
Show
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At 1 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots and Tennessee Titans to go UNDER the total. Both of these teams come into this game off a string of Overs. The Pats have gone Over in 3 straight, while the Titans have gone Over in 2 straight, including last week's 52-14 blowout loss to the Detroit Lions. I'll look for a lower-scoring game on Sunday, as teams off back-to-back Overs that gave up more than 38 points in their previous game have gone Under 58.6% vs. foes off 3+ Overs. Take the Pats/Titans game to go UNDER.
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11-03-24 |
Broncos v. Ravens -9.5 |
Top |
10-41 |
Win
|
100 |
40 h 57 m |
Show
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At 1 pm, our selection is on the Baltimore Ravens minus the points over the Denver Broncos. Last week, the Broncos moved to 5-3 with a 28-14 win over Carolina, while Baltimore was upset by Cleveland, 29-24. I like the Ravens to bounce back, as they have dominated winning teams outside their division, going 84-49 ATS, including 48-15 ATS if the Ravens were not off an ATS win. Denver also falls into negative 36-102 and 62-135 ATS systems of mine. Lay the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
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11-03-24 |
Chargers v. Browns OVER 42 |
Top |
27-10 |
Loss |
-110 |
40 h 55 m |
Show
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At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns and Los Angeles Chargers to go OVER the total. The Chargers went under the total of 41.5 last week vs. New Orleans, as they won, 26-8. And that was L.A.'s 6th under in their 7 games. A lot of bettors might look to play the under in this game, especially because the Browns are 5-3 under, themselves. I'm going to look for a relatively high-scoring game, as the Over falls into a Totals system of mine which has cashed 59.2% of the time. Additionally, the Chargers tend to go Under at home in non-division games (101-53 Under), but Over on the road outside the division (114-93 Over). Take the Browns/Chargers game Over the total. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
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11-03-24 |
Saints v. Panthers +7.5 |
Top |
22-23 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 37 m |
Show
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At 1 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers + the points over the New Orleans Saints. The Saints have lost 6 straight since their 2-0 start, and have been installed as a big road favorite at Carolina. The Saints' scoring margin is -2.62 ppg, and I won't lay this many points with teams that have negative scoring margins. And especially not on the road vs. foes off back to back losses, as they've covered just 26.3% since 1980. We saw this exact situation last week, when the Jets were favored by 7 at New England, even though the Jets' scoring margin was -2.42 ppg. The Patriots won that game outright, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Carolina do the same. We'll take the Panthers + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
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10-31-24 |
Texans v. Jets -2 |
Top |
13-21 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 57 m |
Show
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At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets minus the points over Houston. The Jets are on a 5-game SU/ATS losing streak and their last two losses were both as road favorites. The Jets lost, 37-15, at Pittsburgh, as a 2.5-point favorite, and fell last week at New England, 25-22, as a 7-point fave. I'll take New York to get off the schneid tonight, as home teams have cashed 61% since 1980 off back-to-back losses as road favorites. Additionally, the Jets are 5-0-1 ATS vs. Houston in the last six meetings, when not favored by 4+ points. Lay the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
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10-28-24 |
Giants +6 v. Steelers |
Top |
18-26 |
Loss |
-105 |
92 h 34 m |
Show
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At 8:15 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the New York Giants + the points over Pittsburgh. The New York Giants mustered just 3 points last week, in a 25-point loss to the Eagles, while the Steelers went for 37 in a 22-point win vs. the New York Jets. Given the disparate results, the knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the home team in this Monday Night Football game. But I will grab the points with New York, as underdogs off losses by more than 20 points have gone 40-24-1 ATS vs. foes off wins by more than 20 points. Take the Giants. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
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10-28-24 |
Giants v. Steelers OVER 36 |
Top |
18-26 |
Win
|
100 |
92 h 32 m |
Show
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At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Pittsburgh/New York Giants game. Last week, in Russell Wilson's debut for the Steelers, Mike Tomlin's men racked up 37 points in a 22-point win over the Jets. And that was the most points that the Steelers scored in a win since October 18, 2020, when they blew out Cleveland, 38-7. I expect a relatively high-scoring game on Monday, and will take the OVER, as Pittsburgh has gone 75-51-2 OVER the total when the O/U line was less than 40 points, including 30-8-2 OVER when the Steelers were favored between -3.5 and -8.5 points. Take the Over. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
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10-27-24 |
Cowboys +5 v. 49ers |
Top |
24-30 |
Loss |
-110 |
68 h 43 m |
Show
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At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Cowboys + the points over San Francisco. Dallas was blown out, 47-9, two weeks ago, and had last week off to lick their wounds and regroup for this huge game against San Francisco. The Cowboys have been installed as a road underdog. And NFL dogs of +4 (or more) points have cashed 72.7% ATS off losses by more than 37 points. We'll take the Cowboys on this Sunday night. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
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10-27-24 |
Panthers +10.5 v. Broncos |
Top |
14-28 |
Loss |
-108 |
64 h 49 m |
Show
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At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers + the points over the Denver Broncos. The Panthers are in a tailspin, and have failed to cover the spread by 23, 12, and 22 points in their last 3 games. They're now getting more than a touchdown from the Broncos, and underdogs of more than 4 points that failed to cover the spread by 12+ points in each of their last three games, have gone 16-4 ATS their last 20, including 9-1 ATS on the road. Take Carolina. Good luck as always...Al McMordie.
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10-27-24 |
Panthers v. Broncos UNDER 41.5 |
Top |
14-28 |
Loss |
-110 |
64 h 45 m |
Show
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At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Carolina/Denver game. The Panthers' defense is giving up 34.7 ppg this season. The knee-jerk reaction might be to look for their games to go Over the total. But consider that NFL teams with horrid defenses that give up more than 34 ppg, have gone 160-106 UNDER the total. We played on Carolina/Washington UNDER last week, and got the $$$ in the Commanders' 40-7 win. We'll take the UNDER once again, as it falls into a 112-55 totals system of mine. Take the Under. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
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10-27-24 |
Saints v. Chargers UNDER 41 |
Top |
8-26 |
Win
|
100 |
63 h 29 m |
Show
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At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Under in the New Orleans/LA Chargers game. The Chargers are 5-1 Under this season. And their one game which went Over -- their 23-16 win at Denver -- only did so when the Broncos kicked a FG with 1:03 left in the game. For those who follow coach Jim Harbaugh, this isn't a surprise, as the 49ers went 21-13 Under his last 2 seasons with them, as head coach. I'll look for another low-scoring Chargers game on this Sunday.
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10-27-24 |
Saints +7 v. Chargers |
Top |
8-26 |
Loss |
-100 |
63 h 27 m |
Show
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At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Saints + the points over the Los Angeles Chargers. The Saints were blown out in their Thursday night football game, 33-10, by the Denver Broncos. I like playing on NFL teams off huge blowout losses on Thursdays, and especially when they're installed as an underdog vs. an unrested opponent. One reason is that teams that get embarrassed are highly-motivated to redeem themselves in their next game. And when you are able to get points as a dog, and play a team which isn't as well-rested, it adds up to an advantageous situation, which has cashed north of 60% over the last 45 years. Take New Orleans. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
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