At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Tennessee/Miami game.  The Dolphins come into this game off an outing where they scored just 3 points (a 24-3 loss to the Seahawks).  And Miami has played each of its first three games Under the total.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to look for another low-scoring game here, especially with backup QB Tyler Huntley getting the start.  But NFL teams tend to go OVER the total in Week 4 after commencing a season with 3 straight Unders, and especially when the O/U line is in the 35 to 42.5-point range (42-22-1 OVER).  Indeed, yesterday, the Falcons, Steelers, Vikings and Bears all went Over the total after starting the season with 3 Unders (only the Chargers went Under on Sunday after starting with 3 Unders).  Take the Titans/Dolphins OVER the total.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns over the Las Vegas Raiders.  The Browns were upset by the New York Giants last week, 21-15. I like Cleveland to bounce back, as it’s 13-2 ATS off an upset loss when matched up against an opponent which isn’t a winning team. Also, the Raiders have been horrible at home vs. losing teams when not getting 3 or more points, as they’ve gone 24-60 ATS. Take Cleveland.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Cardinals minus the points over Washington.  The Cardinals lost at home to Detroit, 20-13, last week, while the Commanders upset Cincy on Monday Night, 38-33.  We’ll take Arizona to bounce back at home, as it is 35-11 ATS at home off a home loss when it wasn’t favored by 6 or more points.  Take the Cardinals.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Jacksonville Jaguars + the points over Houston.  The Jaguars were annihilated on Monday Night Football by the Buffalo Bills.  Buffalo scored touchdowns on its first 5 possessions, and had a 34-3 lead at halftime. The final score was 47-10, and the Jaguars are now 0-3 on the season. We’ll take Jacksonville to bounce back off that embarrassing loss, as underdogs have gone 48-28 ATS following a blowout loss on Monday Night Football by 20+ points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Pittsburgh/Indianapolis game.  The Steelers have the best defense in the league, as they’re giving up just 8.66 points per game. The knee-jerk reaction might be to look for a low-scoring game here. But consider that great defensive teams with scoring averages of less than 11.6 points per game, have gone OVER the total 130-99 since 1980, at Game 4 forward.  I’ll take the OVER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Green Bay Packers minus the points over Minnesota.  Last week, the Vikings were a 1.5-point home dog, and they blew out Houston, 34-7. Minnesota is now 3-0 on the season. Unfortunately, undefeated teams off upset home wins by more than 20 points have gone 1-12 ATS when they weren’t favored by 4+ points. Even worse: the Vikings are 5-13 ATS on the division road when facing a foe with a .625 (or better) win percentage.  We’ll fade Minnesota as a road underdog.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons minus the points over the New Orleans Saints.  When these two teams last met in the final week of the 2023 season, the Saints blew out the Falcons, 48-17. We’ll take Atlanta in this game, as NFL favorites off a SU loss, who are playing with revenge from a game where they gave up 48 or more points, have gone 10-1 ATS. Take the Falcons.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers + the points over Philadelphia.  We played on the Eagles last week, and got the $$$ when they upset the Saints on the road, 15-12. But they’re now playing their 2nd straight road game. And winning teams are a poor 68-95-5 ATS on the non-division road, if they won outright as a road underdog in their previous game, and their opponent wasn’t off a SU/ATS win. With Tampa off an upset loss to Denver, we’ll take the Bucs to bounce back here at home on Sunday.  Grab the points.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Cincinnati/Carolina game.  The Panthers have been installed as a home underdog.  And they've gone 16-4 UNDER when they were a home dog.  Even better:  the Bengals have gone 37-9 UNDER away from home when the O/U line was greater than 46 points.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bengals minus the points over Carolina.  The Bengals are one of the most disappointing teams in football, with an 0-3 record. But we’ll lay the points with Cincy and go against a Panthers team off a 36-22 upset win at Las Vegas. Indeed, winless favorites of more than 3 points have gone 28-11 ATS vs. foes off SU/ATS wins. Lay the points.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets minus the points over Denver.  There has only been one team to have covered as a favorite of 6 or more points this season.  And that was the New York Jets last week, when they blew out the Patriots, 24-3, as a 6.5-point home favorite.  But, overall, favorites of -6 or more have gone 1-12 ATS this season.  Still, I like the Jets here as a big favorite, as NFL teams (like Denver) off 19-point (or greater) upset wins have gone 130-177-8 ATS in their next game.  And Denver is also 0-7 ATS its last seven (and 15-30 ATS its last 45) off an upset win when playing a foe off a SU win.  Take the Jets.

At 7:45 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the LSU/South Alabama game.  The Over/Under number for this game has been installed in the mid-60s.  I look for a relatively low-scoring game, as the UNDER falls into a 70-23 Totals system of mine.  Moreover, the Jaguars have gone 41-23-3 UNDER when the O/U line was greater than 54 points.  Take LSU and South Alabama UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Ohio State Buckeyes minus the points over Michigan State.  The Spartans have been installed as a huge underdog in East Lansing.  Unfortunately, Michigan State has been miserable in the role of a big dog, as they've covered just one of their last 11 when getting more than 13 points.  Ohio State is absolutely loaded with talent this season, and is the current favorite (at 7-2 odds) to win the National Championship.  The Buckeyes have completely dominated Sparty the last eight years, as they're 8-0 SU.  They're also 7-0 ATS over the last seven seasons vs. MSU, covering the spread by an average of 14.21 ppg.  And Ohio State is 75-48-4 ATS as a road favorite.  Lay the points with the Buckeyes.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Clemson Tigers minus the points over Stanford.  Last week, the Cardinal upset Syracuse in their maiden ACC Conference game, 26-24, as a 9.5-point road underdog.  Off that huge upset win, we will fade Stanford in Death Valley on Saturday night.  Stanford is a wallet-busting 25-41 ATS off an upset win, including 0-9 ATS when catching 13.5 (or more) points.  And Clemson is a sensational 23-7-1 ATS vs. foes off an upset win, including 8-0 ATS when favored by 19+ points.  The Tigers blew out NC State, 59-35, last Saturday.  And that bodes well for Dabo Swinney's men, as Clemson is 19-3 ATS after scoring more than 56 points.  Lay the wood with the Tigers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Minnesota Golden Gophers + the points over Michigan.  We played on the Wolverines last Saturday as a home underdog vs. Southern Cal, and were rewarded with a 27-24 upset victory.  This week, we'll switch gears and go against Sherrone Moore's men as a big favorite vs. the Gophers.  The Wolverines have gone 0-8-1 ATS at home following an upset win as a 4-point (or greater) underdog.  Even worse:  after defeating USC at home, conference foes have covered just 15 of 46 conference games.  Finally, Big 10 Conference teams, after an upset home win the previous week, have gone 2-18 ATS at home vs. .600 (or worse) conference foes.  Look for U-M to suffer a letdown on Saturday.  Grab the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Northern Illinois Huskies + the points over the NC State Wolfpack.  Last week, the Huskies were upset, 23-20, by Buffalo.  And that upset loss followed Northern Illinois' huge upset win at Notre Dame, as a 27.5-point road dog.  Certainly, it wasn't a surprise that the Huskies had a letdown following its win in South Bend.  After all, teams off upset wins over Notre Dame generally fall flat in their subsequent game.  But off its own upset defeat, we'll take Northern Illinois to bounce back on Tobacco Road against NC State.  The Huskies are a sensational 54-28-1 ATS as a road underdog.  And they're also 9-3 ATS off an upset loss, including 5-0 ATS on the road.  Meanwhile, NC State is a poor 3-13 ATS as a favorite/PK vs. a foe off an upset loss.  Take N. Illinois.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the Rutgers Scarlet Knights minus the points over the Washington Huskies.  Washington comes into this game off a 24-5 blowout win over Northwestern, while Rutgers moved to 3-0 last week with an upset win, 26-23, at Virginia Tech.  Greg Schiano's Scarlet Knights have been installed as a small home favorite vs. the Huskies.  And we'll lay the points, as Rutgers is 18-9 ATS its last 27 as a favorite.  Additionally, Big 10 Conference teams are a woeful 35-58-3 ATS in their first road game of the season, if they were off a SU/ATS win, and their opponent wasn't off a SU loss.  Take the Scarlet Knights to blow out Washington.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Lions minus the points over the Arizona Cardinals.  Last week, Arizona annihilated the L.A. Rams, 41-10.  But off that high-scoring win, we'll fade Arizona as a home dog on Sunday.  Indeed, home teams have been poor (92-126-2 ATS) in non-division games off a win the previous week, in which they scored more than 40 points.  Additionally, the Lions are 21-6 ATS under coach Dan Campbell, if their opponent was not off a SU loss.  Take Detroit.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Rams + the points over the San Francisco 49ers.  The Rams were annihilated last week, 41-10, by Arizona.  But off that 31-point loss, we'll take the Rams as a huge home dog vs. San Francisco.  Indeed, NFL home dogs off losses by 27 (or more) points, have gone 161-113-4 ATS since 1980.  The Rams are also a solid 21-14-3 ATS off a SU loss. Take Los Angeles.  Good luck, as always.  Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers + the points over Las Vegas.  The Panthers have been the worst offense in football to start the season.  They scored just 10 points in Week 1 and managed only 3 last week in their 2nd game.  Andy Dalton will get the start at QB this week for the Panthers, and we'll take the underdog, as teams that start the season 0-2 SU/ATS, while not scoring more than 10 points in either game, have gone 17-7 ATS in Week 3.  Additionally, teams (like the Raiders) off an upset win as an 8-point (or greater) underdog, have gone 44-59-3 ATS vs. foes off back to back losses.  Take Carolina.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Eagles + the points over New Orleans.  The Saints have been the most impressive team thus far, with blowout wins over the Panthers and Cowboys.  And New Orleans has scored 93 points across those two games.  But teams off back to back high scoring SU/ATS wins, in which they tallied 35 (or more) points in each game, have covered just 42 of 100 vs. foes off a SU loss.  With Philly, indeed, off an upset loss to the Falcons this past Monday, we'll grab the points with the Eagles.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Over in the Pittsburgh Steelers/Los Angeles Chargers game.  Both the Chargers and Steelers come into this game playing great defense.  Los Angeles held the Raiders to 10 and the Panthers to 3, while the Steelers held Atlanta to 10, and Denver to 6.  Teams that opened the season with 2 strong defensive games, and held each of their two opponents to 15 (or less) points, have gone OVER the total 71% since 2007.  Take the Steelers/Chargers OVER.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Green Bay/Tennessee game.  Last Sunday, the Packers upset the Indianapolis Colts, 16-10, as a 2-point home underdog.  This week, Green Bay will travel to Nashville to play a Titans team which lost its first two games by the identical score of 24-17.  Green Bay is 65-37 OVER the total after not scoring 17+ points in its previous game, while Tennessee is 59-41 OVER the total off a point spread loss.  Take the OVER.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the New York Giants/Cleveland Browns game.  The defenses of these two teams have not played well thus far.  The Browns' defense is allowing 23 ppg (ranking #23), and gave up 33 to Dallas (which only scored 19 vs. New Orleans).  Meanwhile, the Giants are allowing 24.5 ppg (ranking #26).  By my math, this Over/Under line is too low, and the value is on the OVER.  Additionally, the Browns are 9-3 OVER the total off a win, and the OVER also falls into 82-35 and 60-18 Totals system of mine.  Take the OVER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the BYU Cougars + the points over Kansas State.  The Cougars moved to 3-0 with a 34-14 blowout win in Laramie, as a 10-point road favorite vs. the Wyoming Cowboys last weekend.  BYU has been installed as a big home dog vs. the ranked Wildcats.  We'll grab the points, as undefeated home dogs with a 3-0 (or better) record, off a double-digit cover, have cashed 62.2% vs. conference foes since 1980.  And the Wildcats have covered just 11 of their last 34 games as road favorites.  Take BYU.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Texas Longhorns minus the points over Louisiana Monroe.  The Longhorns are ranked #1 in the country, and looked great with "backup" quarterback Arch Manning at the helm.  Texas smashed UTSA, 56-7, after erstwhile starter, Quinn Ewers, was injured in the 2nd quarter of that game.  Ewers was downgraded to "doubtful" for this week's game vs. the Warhawks, and we'll lay the points with Manning under center.  Texas is one of 3 teams with 3 SU/ATS wins vs. FBS competition this season (Pitt and Arizona St. are the other two).  Texas is 12-4-1 ATS when laying 32+ points vs. non-conference foes, while Monroe is a wallet-breaking 22-39 ATS in non-conference games when getting 24+ points.  Take Texas.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Michigan State Spartans + the points over Boston College.  The Spartans are 3-0 after pounding Prairie View, 40-0, last weekend.  We'll take the Spartans + the points, as they're 47-25-2 ATS off a SU win, when playing on the road vs. winning foes.  Meanwhile, Boston College falls into a negative 63-130 ATS system of mine following its loss last week vs. Missouri.  Take Michigan State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:45 pm, our selection is on the Mississippi Rebels minus the points over Georgia Southern.  Ole Miss has taken no prisoners this season.  It's 3-0 SU/ATS after blowout wins over Furman (76-0), Middle Tennessee (52-3) and Wake Forest (40-6).  I won't step in front of this freight train, as Ole Miss falls into a 133-84-2 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams with big scoring margins.  Lay the points.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Oklahoma Sooners + the points over Tennessee.  The 3-0 Sooners have been installed as a home underdog vs. 3-0 Tennessee.  And we'll happily take the points with the home team, as Oklahoma is a sensational 49-26-3 ATS at home when not favored by more than 21 points.  Additionally, the home teams have gone 193-145-9 ATS in matchups between top-level teams (with win percentages of .875+) that are both off 3+ wins.  Take the Sooners.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Miami/South Florida game to go UNDER the total.  The Hurricanes will travel to Raymond James Stadium on Saturday night to take on the Bulls.  We'll take the UNDER, as South Florida is 6-1 UNDER its last 7 non-conference FBS games, while Miami is 20-10 Under the total when the O/U line has been 60+ points.  Additionally, the UNDER falls into a 70-22 totals system of mine.  Take the UNDER.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers + the points over Toledo.  Western Kentucky is a super 41-12 ATS when priced from -1 to +10 points vs. FBS competition.  We'll grab the points with the home underdog Hilltoppers.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the SMU Mustangs + the points over TCU.  This Dallas metroplex rivalry has favored the underdog (24-15 ATS) and the revenge-minded team (21-14 ATS).  SMU falls into both categories on Saturday evening, and we'll grab the points with the Mustangs.  Additionally, TCU is a terrible 24-48-3 ATS vs. revenge-minded winning teams.  Take SMU.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Navy Midshipmen + the points over Memphis.  Navy is off to a 2-0 start, with wins over Bucknell (49-21) and Temple (38-11), while Memphis is 3-0 following wins over North Alabama (40-0), Troy (38-17) and Florida State (20-12).  The Midshipmen have been installed as a big home dog, and we'll grab the points.  Since 1980, home dogs of +8 (or more) points are 90-63 ATS in FBS games after back to back wins by > 7 points.  And Memphis is a miserable 13-37-2 ATS when favored by 13 or less points vs. foes off a SU win.  Take Navy.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Michigan Wolverines + the points over the USC Trojans.  The defending champs have gotten off to a slow start this season.  They're 2-1 SU, but 0-3 ATS.  Michigan has been installed as a home dog vs. USC, and we will happily grab the points.  USC has burned bettors' money over the years when installed as a road favorite of more than 4 points vs. foes off a win, as they've covered just 15 of 51.  Take Michigan.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the South Alabama/Appalachian State game.  Last week, the Jaguars put up 87 points vs. Northwestern State.  And that was the most points scored by an FBS team since Fresno State walloped New Mexico, 94-17, on October 5, 1991.  We'll look for a much lower-scoring game tonight, as FBS games have gone 62% under when the O/U line was > 60 points, and a team scored more than 70 in its previous game.  Even better:  the Jaguars have gone 32-14-2 UNDER in conference games with O/U lines > 53 points.  Likewise, Appalachian State is 21-12 UNDER in conference games with O/U lines > 53 points.  Take the Under.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

The Bengals suffered the biggest upset loss in Week 1 when they lost to the Patriots as a 7.5-point favorite. But teams that get upset in Week 1 as favorites of more than 6 points tend to bounce back in Week 2, and have gone 27-10 ATS. Additionally, the Bengals are an awesome 14-2 ATS as an underdog of more than 2 points. Take Cincy.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

Interestingly, this is the 2nd straight week that the Detroit Lions will be playing an opponent it defeated in last year’s playoffs. Last week, Detroit covered by a half-point in overtime vs. the Rams. And I also like Detroit to cover the spread in this home game vs. Tampa Bay, which blew out Washington, 37-20, last Sunday. Under Dan Campbell, the Lions are 21-5-1 ATS when playing an opponent not off a straight-up loss.  And teams playing their road openers at Detroit have gone just 12-23-1 ATS, including 4-12-1 ATS off a win by 17+ points.  Take the Lions.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns + the points over Jacksonville.  The Browns were upset at home by the Dallas Cowboys, 33-17, in Week 1.  I like playing on road teams in Week 2 off double-digit upset losses, as they have bounced back to cover 65.3%.  Take Cleveland + the points.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Cowboys minus the points over New Orleans. The Saints had the biggest margin of victory in Week 1, with a 37-point triumph over Carolina. Now, they’re getting a whopping 6.5 points from Dallas. The knee-jerk reaction might be to grab those points with the Saints. But be careful, as teams off a 20-point (or greater) win in Week 1 are 0-9 ATS their last nine (and 24-42-6 ATS since 1982) when not favored by more than 3 points. I’ll lay the points with Dallas.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New York Giants + the points over the Washington Commanders.  Washington has long been horrible at home vs. non-winning teams, if Washington wasn’t an underdog of 2 or more points.  In this situation, Washington has gone 35-81 ATS.  The Giants were a 1-point home favorite last week and were blown out by Minnesota, 28-6.  I’ll take New York to bounce back, as division road underdogs off an upset loss by more than 10 points have gone 109-69 ATS.  Take New York.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:45 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Tennessee/Kent State game.  The Golden Flashes have gone 33-19-2 UNDER in FBS games with O/U lines > 55 points, including 5-0 UNDER their last five, and 22-9 UNDER on the road.  We'll look for the Volunteers and Golden Flashes to play a relatively low-scoring game on Saturday night.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6 pm, our selection is on the Virginia Tech Hokies minus the points over Old Dominion.  The Hokies have started slowly this season, going 1-1 SU and 0-2 ATS after failing to get the $$$ last week in a 31-14 win over Marshall.  This evening, the Hokies will battle the Monarchs in Norfolk, and have been installed as a double-digit favorite.  We'll lay the points, as Va Tech is 11-4 ATS on the road off back to back ATS defeats.  And it also falls into a 152-89 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams that have underperformed ATS on the season.  Lay the points.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Miami-Fla Hurricanes minus the points over Ball State.  The Cardinals have been installed as a massive underdog this afternoon vs. the #10-ranked Hurricanes.  And Ball State has been woeful as big underdogs, going 0-13 SU and 2-10-1 ATS when catching 21+ points, while Mid-American Conference teams are 14-25-1 ATS when installed as underdogs of > 34 points.  Take Miami-Fla.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Oregon Ducks minus the points over Oregon State.  Dan Lanning's men have burned bettors the first two weeks, with ATS losses vs. Idaho and Boise State.  We'll look for a bounce-back on this Saturday, as the Ducks are a solid 20-10 ATS off back to back point spread defeats.  Additionally, Oregon is 6-0 ATS its last six, and 20-6-1 ATS its last 27 on the road vs. a foe off a SU win, if Oregon wasn't off a point spread win.  And the Ducks are 8-2-1 ATS in this rivalry when priced from -13.5 to -19.5 points.  We'll take the Ducks to blow out the Beavers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Texas State Bobcats over the Arizona State Sun Devils.  Last week, the Bobcats had a hugely impressive win, as they throttled Texas-San Antonio, 49-10, as a 2-point home favorite.  The Sun Devils also were victorious, with a 30-23 win at home vs. Mississippi State, as a 6.5-point favorite.  And that followed a home blowout win (48-7) over Wyoming to kick off the season.  We'll fade the Sun Devils in their first road game tonight, as road teams off back to back SU/ATS home wins over FBS teams to start the season have covered just 39.2% since 1980 when they weren't getting > 4 points.  Even better:  Arizona State is a wallet-busting 15-30-2 ATS on the road off back-to-back wins.  We'll take the homestanding Bobcats.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons minus the points over Pittsburgh.  The Atlanta Falcons have not had a winning season since 2017, while Pittsburgh has never had a losing season in Mike Tomlin's 17 years as the head coach.  However, I wouldn't be surprised if Tomlin's 17-season streak ended this year.  We'll lay the points with Atlanta, as NFL teams off back to back losing seasons have covered 80% over the last 43 years in Week 1, when favored (or PK) vs. an opponent off back to back winning seasons.  The Falcons are an awesome 19-6 ATS in their home openers, while the Steelers have started the season off slowly, going 4-8-1 ATS in their last 13 season openers.  Lay the points with Atlanta.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers + the points over the New Orleans Saints.  Last season, the Panthers lost both games to their division rival, including a 20-17 defeat in their home opener, and 28-6 in December.  I like playing on revenge-minded underdogs (or PK) in the season opener, as they've cashed 55.2% over the last 34 years.  Even better, if our team lost the previous game to its opponent by double-digits, and is now getting more than 3 points in Week 1, our revengers have cashed 62%.  The road team has dominated this division rivalry, with a 29-16-2 ATS record, including 20-8 ATS as an underdog, 14-3-1 ATS with revenge.  Grab the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Ohio State Buckeyes minus the points over Western Michigan.  The Buckeyes are loaded this season and are one of the favorites to win the NCAA Championship in January.  Ohio State is a reliable 38-22 ATS when priced from -17 to -44 points, including a perfect 3-0 ATS vs. Mid-American Conference foes.  And the Big 10 Conference has generally beat up on MAC opponents when the line was higher than -20 points, going 126-3 straight-up, and 76-53 ATS since 1980.  Lay the lumber with the Buckeyes.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the Central Florida Knights minus the points over Sam Houston St.  Both of these teams kicked off 2024 with a blowout win.  UCF annihilated New Hampshire, 57-3, while the Bearkats routed Rice, 34-14, as a 9-point underdog.  We'll fade Sam Houston St. on Saturday, as teams that won by double-digits in their season opener as 9-point (or greater) underdogs have covered the spread in their next game just 34% since 1980.  Moreover, the Knights are 8-2 ATS their last 10 (including 5-0 ATS their last five) when favored by more than 7 vs. non-conference foes off a win.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:30 pm, our selection is on the Virginia Tech Hokies minus the points over Marshall.  Last season, the Thundering Herd knocked off Va Tech in Huntington, 24-17.  The Hokies have long been a great bet when playing with revenge, as they're 58-36-2 ATS in that situation, including 22-9 ATS when coming off a SU loss.  And the Hokies are, indeed, coming off a loss, as they were upset by Vanderbilt, in overtime, last Saturday.  That bodes well for Virginia Tech on Saturday.  As does the fact that Marshall is a wallet-breaking 47-66-2 ATS vs. revenge-minded foes, including 26-40-1 ATS on the road.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Michigan State Spartans + the points over Maryland.  Last season, Maryland went into East Lansing, and blew out the Spartans, 31-9.  We'll take Michigan State as a revenge-minded road underdog, as the Terrapins have covered just 15 of their last 45 vs. revenge-minded foes.  Even better:  Big 10 underdogs of +10 or less points have cashed 61.3% when playing with revenge from a home loss the previous season.  Take Michigan State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, on Saturday, our selection is on the Syracuse Orange + the points over Georgia Tech.  The Yellow Jackets opened the season with a stunning win over Florida State.  But then Boston College also knocked off the Seminoles this past Monday, so Georgia Tech's victory has lost some of its luster.  The Yellow Jackets have been installed as a road favorite at Syracuse.  But Georgia Tech has been woeful has a road fave, with a 2-9 ATS record.  Even worse for the Jackets:  ACC Conference road favorites have gone just 86-134-6 ATS vs. conference foes that weren't off a SU/ATS win.  Finally, the Orange are 28-11-1 ATS at home off a win, when matched up against a foe off back-to-back wins (including 10-0 ATS when priced from -3.5 to +6.5 points).  Take Syracuse + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Army Black Knights + the points over Florida Atlantic.  Last week, Army blew out Lehigh, 42-7, while the Owls lost by six at Michigan State, 16-10, as a 13-point underdog.  Army has been installed as a road underdog vs. the Owls.  And we'll take the points, as Army is a solid 25-13-2 ATS as an underdog away from home, while Florida Atlantic is an awful 1-9 ATS at home vs. non-division foes.  Army also falls into 95-62 and 158-61 ATS systems of mine that fade certain teams (like Florida Atlantic) off ATS wins.  Take the Black Knights.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Michigan Wolverines + the points over Texas.  Last season, Michigan went 15-0 to win the National Championship.  This season, the Wolves were ranked #9 in the preseason poll, and got off to a slow start last week vs. Fresno.  Michigan won the game, 30-10, but didn't cover the spread.  I look for the Wolverines to bounce back with a stronger game on Saturday afternoon.  They've been installed as a home dog vs. #3-ranked Texas.  And defending champs have covered 69.5% since 1980 as an underdog off a point spread loss, when matched up against an opponent off a SU win (and 83% as home dogs).  Additionally, Texas has covered just 8 of 25 games as non-conference road favorites.  Grab the points.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Charlotte 49ers + the points over James Madison.  The 49ers have been installed as a home underdog to kick off the 2024 season.  We'll grab the points with Biff Poggi's men, as home underdogs of 13 or less points (or PK) have gone 175-130 ATS in Game 1 of the season when not playing a revenge-minded foe.  Take Charlotte.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, on Saturday, our selection is on the West Virginia Mountaineers + the points over Penn State.  These two teams met last season in Happy Valley, and the Nittany Lions mauled the Mountaineers, 38-15.  This rematch will be played in Morgantown, and WVU has been installed as a single-digit home dog.  We'll grab the points, as revenge-minded, single-digit home dogs have cashed 69% ATS in their home opener, dating back to Sept 18, 2010.  Even better:  Penn State is a dismal 16-27-1 ATS as a favorite of 14 or less points vs. a revenge-minded, non-conference foe (including 4-13-1 ATS if it won the previous meeting by 15+ points).  Take West Virginia.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco 49ers (on the moneyline), to win the game, straight-up, over the Kansas City Chiefs.  This is a rematch of the 2020 Super Bowl won by the Chiefs, 31-20, as a 1.5-point favorite.  Since then, the two teams have met once.  And that was last season, in San Francisco, in RB Christian McCaffrey's first game as a 49er following the trade with the Carolina Panthers.  The Chiefs were favored by 1 point, and won, 44-23.  Kansas City is, without a doubt, playing its best football of the season.  It won impressively at Buffalo and Baltimore to reach this game.  And it has been well-chronicled how well the Chiefs have performed in the underdog role (17-4-1 ATS, including 15-1-1 ATS away from home).  But the 49ers have also excelled in the role of small favorite.  San Francisco is a perfect 7-0 SU/ATS when favored by less than 4 points.  And it has covered the spread in those games by an average of 16.25 ppg.  Notably, six of those seven games involved opponents that qualified for the playoffs.  The 49ers have also been terrific against teams off upset wins (8-1-1 ATS) and against opponents off back-to-back wins (59-39-3 ATS).  And, while it's true that the Niners failed to cover the spread in their three previous games, the Chiefs are 1-10 SU and 2-8-1 ATS as underdogs vs. foes off 3 ATS losses!  Even better:  NFL Playoff teams that weren't getting 3+ points, have gone 0-9 ATS if they covered their previous game by 10+ points, and their opponent was on a 3-game (or worse) ATS losing streak.  The 49ers will no doubt be prepared for Steve Spagnuolo's blitz packages.  And Brock Purdy led the NFL, statistically, this season when facing a blitz.  He ranked #1 with 9.9 yards per attempt, and also had the best QB rating (127.9).  I will take the 49ers to win the game, straight-up, on the moneyline.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:30 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the San Francisco 49ers minus the points over Detroit.  This is the 49ers' 3rd straight game at home, and they failed to cover the point spread in the first two (with a 21-20 loss to the Los Angeles Rams, and a narrow 3-point win last week vs. the Green Bay Packers).  I think the 3rd time will be the charm, as NFL home favorites have covered 65.9% since 1980 off back to back ATS losses at home.  Even better for San Francisco:  its defense ranked among the top 3 in points allowed (17.5) in the regular season, while Detroit's defense ranked in the bottom 10 (23.2).  Detroit was especially poor against the pass, as its defense ranked next-to-last in passing yards per attempt (7.8).  In contrast, the 49ers ranked #5, and gave up just 6.4 yards per pass attempt.  In NFL Conference Championship games, road teams that give up more than 19.3 ppg have covered the spread just 33% of the time.  And, finally, Detroit is a dreadful 14-32-1 ATS on the road if it owned a win percentage of .700 (or better), and it won its previous game, including 0-10 ATS its last 10, if it was an underdog of +5 or more points.  Take the 49ers minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills OVER the total.  Last week, the Chiefs held the high-octane Miami Dolphins' offense -- which was averaging 29 ppg -- to just 7 points.  And that game went under the total of 43.5.  But NFL teams that hold a Playoff opponent to 20+ points less than their scoring average (and went Under the total in that win), have proceeded to go 12-0 OVER the total in their next game.  Moreover, after its 31-17 win against the Steelers, Buffalo's home playoff games have now gone 11-1 Over when the line was 48 or less points.  Take the Chiefs and Bills Over.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Detroit Lions and Tampa Bay Bucs to go OVER the total.  This game will be played at Ford Field, which is an enclosed stadium.  And enclosed stadia tend to be higher scoring as they're not exposed to the (sometimes) inclement weather, and have gone Over the total 59.5 percent since 1980.  That's one reason I favor a high-scoring game.  Another is that Detroit has gone 18-2 Over at home if it wasn't off a game which went Over the total (including 12-0 Over if the O/U line was 47+ points).  Take the Lions and Bucs Over.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Detroit Lions minus the points over Tampa Bay.  We played on Detroit last week as a 3-point home favorite and unfortunately lost, as Detroit won that game, 24-23.  We'll come right back with Dan Campbell's men in this Divisional round game.  The Lions are a super 18-5 ATS under Campbell if their opponent wasn't off a straight-up loss.  Additionally, Tampa Bay has held its last two opponents (Eagles, Panthers) to 9 combined points.  And NFL teams have covered just 31% in the Playoffs after not giving up 10+ points in either of their two previous games.  Take Detroit to blow out the Buccaneers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the San Francisco 49ers minus the points over Green Bay.  The 49ers had last week off following their 21-20 loss to the LA Rams, as a 6-point home favorite, to end the regular season.  Meanwhile, the Packers went into Dallas and shocked the Cowboys last week, 48-32, as a 7-point road underdog.  Unfortunately, it's tough to pull off two road upsets in a row in the Playoffs.  We'll fade Green Bay, as NFL road teams, with a sub-.666 record, have cashed just 40% on the post-season road since 1980, if they won as a road dog in the Playoffs the previous week.  Even worse for Green Bay:  the 49ers are 70-31 ATS off an upset loss, if the 49ers were favored by 3+ points in their previous game.  Take San Francisco minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:30 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Baltimore Ravens minus the points over Houston.  We had a big play on the Texans last Saturday, and were rewarded with a 45-14 blowout win.  We also played against Baltimore in its last game, and got the $$$ with the Steelers, when they defeated the Ravens, 17-10.  Here, however, we'll take the Ravens and fade Houston off its 31-point victory.  Indeed, underdogs of +5 to +15 points, off a win by 28+ points, have gone 0-13 ATS vs. foes off a straight-up loss.  That doesn't bode well for Houston.  Nor does the fact that the Ravens are a spectacular 45-14 ATS when playing a non-division foe that owns a winning record, if the Ravens weren't off an ATS win.  And Houston is a horrible 22-39-3 ATS off an upset win.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Eagles and Tampa Bay Buccaneers to go OVER the total.  Last week, the Tampa Bay Bucs won, 9-0, at Carolina.  Off that extremely low scoring game, we'll look for a bounce higher tonight.  Indeed, NFL games have gone OVER the total 62-40-3 when the line was < 46 points, if a team's prior game totaled less than 14 points (including 4-1 Over in the Playoffs).  Likewise, Tampa has gone Over the total 16 of 21 at home following a low-scoring game which totaled 28 points or less.  Finally, the Eagles are 31-11 Over the total when the line was 44 < points, if the Eagles scored less than 24 points in their previous game.  Take the Over.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Buffalo Bills and Pittsburgh Steelers to go Over the total.  The weather forecast for Buffalo, NY on Sunday is calling for winds in the 15 to 25 mph range.  This has caused the O/U line to be adjusted downward.  I think the move has been too severe, and that there's value on the over.  Buffalo's home playoff games have also tended to be relatively high scoring, as the Over has cashed 10 straight when the O/U line was 44 points or less.  Likewise, the Steelers are 15-1 Over their last 16 Playoff games (and 24-6 Over their last 30) when the O/U line was 44 points or less.  Take the Over.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Buffalo Bills and Pittsburgh Steelers to go Over the total.  The weather forecast for Buffalo, NY on Sunday is calling for winds in the 15 to 25 mph range.  This has caused the O/U line to be adjusted downward.  I think the move has been too severe, and that there's value on the over.  Buffalo's home playoff games have also tended to be relatively high scoring, as the Over has cashed 10 straight when the O/U line was 44 points or less.  Likewise, the Steelers are 15-1 Over their last 16 Playoff games (and 24-6 Over their last 30) when the O/U line was 44 points or less.  Take the Over.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Lions minus the points over the Los Angeles Rams.  Los Angeles went into San Francisco and upset the 49ers last Sunday, 21-20, while Detroit downed the Minnesota Vikings, 30-20.  The Lions have excelled since Dan Campbell took over as head coach.  They've gone 21-13 SU and 24-9-1 ATS, including an awesome 16-2-1 ATS vs. foes that didn't have a losing record.  On Sunday night, the Lions will welcome the Rams to Ford Field for Detroit's first home playoff game in 30 years.  This will be the Rams' 3rd straight road game, and NFL single-digit dogs off an upset win, and playing their 3rd straight road game have covered just 35.7% since 1980.  Additionally, the Rams are a poor 14-29 ATS off back to back wins (including 1-7 ATS off an upset win).  Take Detroit.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:30 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Cowboys minus the points over Green Bay.  The Cowboys annihilated their opponents here, at home, this season.  Dallas went 8-0 and covered the point spread by an average of 12.87 ppg!  Dating back to last season, the Cowboys' home win streak is 16 games, and it's gone 12-4 ATS, and has covered the spread in those home games by 9.78 ppg.  Green Bay was 4-5 ATS on the road this season (but 1-5 ATS in non-division road games, compared to 3-0 ATS vs. its division rivals).  Dallas and Green Bay did meet last season at Lambeau Field, and the Packers came away with a 31-28 victory.  Unfortunately for the Packers, revenge-minded favorites of -7 (or more) points have covered 67% in the NFL Playoffs.  Take Dallas minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Miami Dolphins + the points over Kansas City.  The Chiefs' offense was a mess for much of the season, and it finished the regular season with an offensive average of 21.82 ppg.  In contrast, Miami averaged 29.0 ppg.  To put Kansas City's number into context, it averaged 35.31, 28.18, 29.56, 28.23, and 29.17 ppg over the previous five seasons.  We'll grab the points with the Dolphins as underdogs have cashed 67% the last 44 seasons in the Playoffs, if their offense averaged 4.30+ ppg more than their opponent.  Take Miami.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:30 pm, our selection is on the Houston Texans + the points over Cleveland.  The Texans punched a spot into the Playoffs with a road win at Indianapolis, while Cleveland rested many of its players, and mailed in its game at Cincy last week, with a 31-14 loss.  These two teams met here, in Houston, three weeks ago, and the Browns were victorious, 36-22.  We'll take Houston to avenge that loss, as revenge-minded NFL home teams have cashed 69% in the Playoffs if the two teams recently met within the three previous games.  Even better:  the Browns are a wallet-breaking 0-12 ATS off a SU/ATS loss if it defeated its opponent earlier in the season.  Grab the points with Houston.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Under in the Buffalo/Miami game.  Buffalo has been installed as a road favorite.  And it's 8-0 Under its last eight as a road favorite of less than 6 points, while Miami is 42-21 Under at home when playing with revenge.  Take the Under.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Miami Dolphins + the points over the Buffalo Bills.  The Dolphins were blown out last week by Baltimore, 56-19.  But winning teams, off a loss by more than 7 points, have covered 86% as home underdogs since 1980, if they were playing with revenge.  And the Dolphins do, indeed, have revenge, since Buffalo blasted them by 28 points earlier this season.  I'll take the points with the home underdog.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers to go Over the total.  The Chiefs are not incentivized to win, so they will turn to QB Blaine Gabbert to line up under center for this game, while Patrick Mahomes will be on the sidelines.  The line has been adjusted, of course, to compensate for the players who won't be available, but I think there's significant value now on the Over, as it falls into a 24-4 Totals system of mine.  Additionally, the Chargers have gone Over the total 14 of the last 17 years in their final game, while KC has gone 6-2 Over in their final road game.  Take the Over.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Over in the Atlanta/New Orleans game.  The Over falls into a 67-36 Totals system of mine, and I look for a relatively high scoring game on Sunday afternoon.  Take the Over.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Over in the Carolina/Tampa Bay game.  The Panthers and Buccaneers both played poorly on offense last week.  Carolina was shutout, 26-0, by Jacksonville, while Tampa mustered just 13 points in a 10-point home loss to New Orleans.  I expect a higher scoring game this week, as NFL games tend to go over the total more often than not when both teams scored less than 14 points in their previous game.  And the Over also falls into a 109-58 Totals system of mine.  Take Carolina/Tampa Over.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Vikings + the points over Detroit.  These two teams met two game ago in Minneapolis, and the Lions came away with a 30-24 victory.  The story of that game was 4 interceptions thrown by Vikings QB Nick Mullens.  That led to Mullens being benched for last week's game vs. Green Bay.  But after the Vikes trailed 23-3 at halftime, coach Kevin O'Connell had second thoughts and inserted Mullens into the game to replace the ineffective Jaren Hall.  Mullens played better vs. Green Bay, as he was 13-of-22 for 113 yards and a TD.  But it was not enough as the Vikes fell, 33-10.  It's unclear who will start at QB for Minnesota in this game, which it must win if it is to have any shot at the Playoffs.  But regardless of who is under center, we'll take the road underdog, as Minnesota falls into a 152-77 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off blowout losses.  Grab the points with the Vikings.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bengals minus the points over the Cleveland Browns.  Cincy lost at Cleveland, 24-3, to open the season.  We'll take the Bengals to close out the season with some payback, as Cleveland is a poor 5-21 ATS vs. revenge-minded foes that Cleveland defeated earlier in the season.  Additionally, the Bengals are 25-9 ATS in their final home game of the season, if they weren't laying more than 7 points.  Take Cincinnati.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Tennessee Titans + the points over Jacksonville.  Last week, the Titans were blown out, 26-3, by Houston, while the Jaguars shut out Carolina, 26-0.  We'll take Tennessee to bounce back, as NFL home dogs  (or PK) have cashed 64% since 1980 off a loss by 23+ points, if their opponent was off a win by 23+ points.  Take Tennessee.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers + the points over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.  The Panthers were shut out, 26-0, by Jacksonville.  I look for Carolina to bounce back as teams off shutout losses have gone 66-40 ATS when priced from +3.5 to +9.5 points.  Even better, over the last 44 years, home underdogs have cashed 58.0 ATS in the last 3 weeks of the season, if they were off an SU/ATS loss.  Finally, the Panthers fall into 145-67, 84-25 and 157-72 ATS systems of mine.  Grab the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans Under the total.  These two teams met earlier this season.  The Over/Under for that game was just 40 points. And it went over the total, as the two teams combined to score 51. This O/U line is significantly higher than the first meeting. I think it's too high. The Indianapolis Colts have not played a game with an Over/Under line this high in any of their last 30 games. And the Texans have only played two games this season with an over/under line north of 47 points. Both of those were 48, and Houston went under the total in each game. The Texans are 10-6 Under this season, and are 46-35 Under when the line was greater than 47 points. And the Colts are 86-59 under at home vs. division rivals, including 26-15 Under if the season's first meeting went Over the total.  Take the Under.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:30 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Steelers minus the points over the Baltimore Ravens.  The Ravens are 13-3 SU and 11-5 ATS, and will be the #1 seed in the AFC following their 56-19 blowout of the Miami Dolphins.  The Steelers are still in the running for the Playoffs.  And though they can still get in with a loss (if the Broncos win and the Jaguars lose), their chances will be greatly improved with a win.  We'll lay the points with Pittsburgh, as it's 81-34 ATS vs. foes that scored 23+ points in their previous game, if that foe owned an ATS win pct. of .400 (or better).  Additionally, Baltimore is 2-10 ATS at home vs. the rival Steelers, if Baltimore had a winning record ATS.  Lay the points with Pittsburgh.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 8:45 pm, our selection is on the Texas Longhorns minus the points over Washington.  The Longhorns have the better ground game, as they're averaging 189 yards per game (compared to 125.2 by Washington).  And Texas' yards per rush is also favorable (4.9 vs 4.5).  All things being equal, I prefer to play on the team with the better ground game in the semifinals or championship games.  Indeed, the team with the better offensive YPR has gone 27-8 ATS their last 35.  That bodes well for Texas on Monday night.  As does the fact that Washington is a soft 6-12 ATS its last 18 as an underdog of 7 or less points.  Take the Longhorns.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:45 pm, our selection is on the Under in the Washington/Texas game.  This game falls into my two best College Football Totals systems, which are 124-54 and 84-30.  Additionally, the Longhorns are surrendering just 17.54 ppg, and rank #11 in the country in defense.  This is the highest total they've had this season (and, in my estimation, too high).  Texas is 44-22 Under when the O/U line was greater than 58 points, while Washington is 26-18-3 Under with a line of 58+ points.  And, in the post-season, teams with defenses that give up less than 19 ppg are on a 60.5% under run when the O/U line was 53+ points.  Take the Under.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the Michigan Wolverines minus the points over Alabama.  This is the 3rd straight season Michigan has made the College Football playoff, but the first that it entered as the #1 team in the country.  And its #1 ranking is warranted.  In 2021, Michigan was overmatched by a dominant Georgia team, which had a defense giving up just 9.5 ppg.  Then, last season, Michigan was really good, and led by its defense which was allowing just 13.3 ppg.  Unfortunately, they couldn't contain TCU's Quentin Johnson, and were burned for 51 points.  But this season, Michigan's defense has been the country's best (and the only defense to allow less than 10.0 ppg).  Texas' defense ranks 11th (17.54 ppg), Alabama's defense ranks 15th (18.38) and Washington's defense ranks 49th (23.62).  This is the 4th time a team was in the NCAA semifinals or championship game with a defense that gave up less than 10 ppg.  All three of the other teams won 15+ point blowouts, and covered by an average of 15.3 ppg.  The Wolverines are 26-13-2 ATS the last 3 seasons, including 14-3 ATS when not favored by 17+ points.  After knocking on the door the past 2 seasons, I expect Jim Harbaugh's men to bang it down this season.  Take Michigan.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Iowa Hawkeyes + the points over Tennessee.  The Volunteers ended their regular season with 3 straight point spread defeats.  And now they've been installed as a sizable favorite vs. Iowa.  I don't want any part of Tennessee as a favorite, as NCAA teams have covered just 86 of 207 in the post season when favored by more than 1 points, if they were off back to back ATS losses to end the regular season.  Additionally, Iowa is 78-55-4 ATS off a SU/ATS loss, and 14-7-1 ATS its last 22 Bowl games.  Take the Hawkeyes + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, on Monday, our selection is on the Wisconsin Badgers + the points over LSU.  The Badgers have been installed as a huge underdog vs. LSU.  We'll happily grab the points with Luke Fickell's men, as Wisconsin is 38-15-2 ATS its last 55 games when getting more than 6 points.  Even better:  its defense gives up 8.83 ppg less than LSU's defense.  And NCAA teams that give up 8.83 points less than their foes are on a 61.4% run in the post-season.  Take Wisconsin + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bengals + the points over Kansas City.  The Bengals lost in the Playoffs to the Chiefs last season, so that will be added incentive for Zac Taylor's men on Sunday.  Both of these teams come into this game off losses.  Cincy was blown out by Pittsburgh on Saturday, while the Chiefs lost to the Raiders on Monday.  I like the underdog Bengals here, as they're 14-1 ATS when installed as an underdog of more than 2 points.  Take Cincy.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Cowboys minus the points over Detroit.  After losing to the Miami Dolphins last week, the Cowboys are now 1-12 ATS their last 13 on the road vs winning teams that were in the Playoffs the previous season. The good news for Dallas, then, in this game is that it is not on the road, and Detroit wasn't in the Playoffs last season. Dallas has played 5 games the past two seasons at home vs. winning clubs, and the Cowboys have won all 5, and have gone 3-2 straight-up. Even better: winning NFL teams have gone 41-20 ATS as a single-digit home favorite (or PK) off back to back SU/ATS road losses. Take Dallas.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Under in the Detroit/Dallas game.  The Lions come into this game off back to back Overs, as they blew out Denver, 42-17, and won at Minnesota, 30-24.  But off those two high-scoring games, we'll take the Under on Saturday night, as Detroit has gone 62-42 Under off back to back Overs, including 8-0 UNDER when the O/U line was 52+ points.  Take the Under.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:30 pm, our selection is on the Toledo Rockets + the points over Wyoming.  The Rockets went 11-1 in the regular season, and reached the Mid-American Conference title game, where they lost to Miami-Ohio, 23-14.  Wyoming ended the season with back to back blowout wins to finish 8-4, but failed to reach the Mountain West championship game.  I like playing on .692 (or better) underdogs in the Bowls that played in their title game against opponents that did not reach their conference championship game.  Our Bowl underdogs have cashed 58.2%.  Moreover, favorites off back to back wins have gone 46-70-3 ATS away from home in the post-season vs. .846 (or better) opponents.  Take Toledo + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Georgia Bulldogs minus the points over Florida St.  The Bulldogs were upset by the Alabama Crimson Tide in the SEC Championship game.  Off that upset loss, we'll lay the points with Georgia this afternoon, as Georgia is 10-1 ATS off an upset loss against an opponent off a SU/ATS win, if Georgia wasn't getting 7+ points.  Even better:  undefeated teams (like Florida State), with a 5-0 (or better) record, have covered just 21.4% since 1994 when getting more than 14 points.  Take the Bulldogs.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Auburn Tigers minus the points over Maryland.  The Tigers suffered a heartbreaking loss to rival Alabama at season's end, and finished with a 6-6 record.  The good news for Auburn is that it will be able to redeem itself in this Music City Bowl game vs. Maryland.  And it's 11-0 SU and 9-2 ATS when favored off back to back losses, if it didn't own a winning record.  The Terrapins will play this game without star QB, Taulia Tagovailoa, who is their all-time leader in passing yards (11,356), as well as the Big 10's all time leader.  In his stead will be Billy Edwards Jr., who had a QB rating of 59.4 (compared to Tagovailoa's 73.6 rating).  I expect Maryland to drop off significantly on offense without Tagovailoa, and we'll lay the points with Auburn.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Ohio St Buckeyes minus the points over Missouri.  Ryan Day's men had high hopes to be in the FBS playoffs.  They were ranked #1 in the country, but lost their season-ending game at Michigan, 30-24.  I look for Ohio State to bounce back off that defeat, as it's a super 16-5 ATS away from home off a loss.  Meanwhile, Missouri is 2-11 ATS in the post-season off a straight-up win, and 19-40 ATS off a win, if they were playing an opponent off a road loss.  Take Ohio State minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Tigers + the points over Iowa St.  This game will be played at the Tigers' home field in Memphis, so the Tigers will have a very friendly crowd in their corner.  Memphis is a solid 13-5 ATS as a home underdog, including 6-0 ATS when getting more than 5 points, while Iowa State is a soft 5-8 ATS as a double-digit road favorite.  Grab the points with the homestanding Tigers.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Oregon State Beavers + the points over Notre Dame.  This Sun Bowl game's over/under line has been installed around 41 points.  And that bodes well for Oregon State, as it's 11-1 ATS in games with O/U lines < 52 points.  Additionally, Oregon State is 17-8-1 ATS as an underdog.  And the underdog has cashed in 30 of 39 Sun Bowls, including 7-0 ATS off back to back losses.  Take the Beavers + the points.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Kentucky Wildcats + the points over the Clemson Tigers.  The Wildcats pulled off a big upset to end their season, with a 38-31 win over rival, Louisville.  Kentucky has been installed as an underdog this afternoon in the Gator Bowl, and we'll grab the points, as Kentucky is 35-18-1 ATS in non-conference games, if it won its previous game, straight-up, including 5-1-1 ATS off an upset win.  And Clemson has covered just 3 of 11 bowl games when favored by 3 or more points.  Finally, the SEC conference is a solid 69-50 ATS as a post-season underdog vs. non-conference foes, including 23-11 ATS vs. the ACC conference.  Take Kentucky + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:15 pm, our selection is on the Alamo Bowl game to go Under the total.  This game will pit the Oklahoma Sooners vs. the Arizona Wildcats.  Each of these teams ended the season with high-scoring victories.  The Sooners put up 69 points in a 24-point win over TCU, while Arizona tallied 59 in a 36-point blowout of rival, Arizona St.  Dating back to 2013, match-ups between teams that scored 54+ points in their previous game have gone under 61% of the time.  Additionally, Arizona is 19-7 Under when the line has been 56+ points.  And the Under falls into a 139-62 Totals system of mine.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.