Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-07-16 | Panthers -5.5 v. Broncos | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 54 m | Show |
Carolina vs. Denver 6:30 PM ET Play On: Carolina -5.5 (10*) Let’s just do some simple comparisons. Carolina is a +28 turnover differential this season, and that includes +8 in its two playoff contests. Denver is -2 for the season. Cam Newton has thrown for 38 touchdowns against only 11 interceptions this season. Peyton Manning has tossed 11 touchdowns and has been intercepted 17 times. Carolina has held opponents to 78 yards or less rushing in ten of its last eleven games. The Panthers have run for 105 yards or more in all 18 of their games this season. Denver has been held to less than 100 yards rushing ten times, and that includes 69 yards or fewer on seven separate occasions. Any NFL postseason favorite of 4.5 or more, possessing a better than .666 win percentage, versus an opponent coming off a home underdog straight up win, and they have a .470 or better win percentage, resulted in the favorite going 14-1 ATS since 1984. They also won all 15 games outright, and by an average of 18.0 points per contest. Play on Carolina minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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02-07-16 | Panthers v. Broncos OVER 43 | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 52 m | Show |
Carolina vs. Denver 6:30 PM ET Play On: Over 43.0 (10*) Carolina has gone a perfect 9-0 over the total the past two seasons when facing an opponent with a winning record. Those nine games averaged a combined 57.6 points per contest. Carolina has gone over the total in each of their last five games this season as a favorite of 6.5 or less, and there were a combined average of 63.6 points scored per contest. Carolina has scored 31 points or more in eight of its previous nine games, and they’re average 32.2 points scored per contest this season. Denver has gone over the total in each of their last five contests after winning four in a row, and there was a combined average of 69.2 points scored per game. Any Super Bowl team (Carolina) that’s gone 3-0 SU&ATS as a favorite in its last three games, and there was a total of 46.5 or less, resulted in all eight of those contests going over the total since 1980. Those eight Super Bowls averaged a combined 55.4 points scored per game. Play on this game to go over the total for a 10* Top Play selection. |
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01-24-16 | Cardinals v. Panthers OVER 47 | Top | 15-49 | Win | 100 | 24 h 2 m | Show |
Arizona @ Carolina 7:40 PM ET Play On: Over 47.0 (10*) Both of these NFC Championship Game participants have been explosive offensively this season. As a matter of fact, they’re the top two scoring teams in the NFL. Arizona has averaged 30.6 points (#2) and 408.3 yards (#1) of total offense per game this season. They’re even better than that on the road. In eight away games, the Cardinals are averaging 32.7 points and 426 yards per contest. Arizona averages a large 6.28 yards per offensive play, and that’s best in the NFL. Carolina has eerily similar offensive numbers in comparison to their upcoming opponent. They’re averaging 31.2 points (#1) and 367 yards of total offense per game. Those numbers improve to 33.0 points and 392 yards per game when playing at home. Arizona is #5 in total defense, allowing an average of only 321.7 yards per game. However, the Cardinals have allowed 354 yards or more in four of its previous five games. Arizona has been adept at creating turnovers this season. They’ve had 34 takeaways in 17 games. However, Carolina has committed only 19 turnovers in 17 contests thus far. Along those same lines, Carolina is #6 in the NFL in total defense, allowing an average of 322.9 yards per game. Unfortunately, the Panthers defense has been torched for 373 yards or more in each of their last four contests. They’ve been able to cover up that deficiency during this stretch by creating a combined 9 turnovers, and having a +5 takeaway/giveaway differential. They’ll have their hands full in those regards against a Cardinals team which is a +8 this season in that exact category. As good as the Panthers defense whole body of work has been this season, they’ve been amongst the worst stop units in regards to allowing plays of 20 or more yards. Granted the Cardinals are 6-1 under the total in their last seven games. We also mustn’t forget, they began the season by going over the total in eight of its first ten contests. Carolina has seen its last eight games go over the total when facing an opponent with a winning record. Those contests averaged a combined 56.9 points scored per contest. Since Ron Rivera took over as head coach in Carolina prior to the start of the 2011 season, the Panthers are 19-7 over the total when facing an opponent with a winning record. Tightening those numbers up even further, if the total was 46.0 or more, Carolina is 10-1 over the total during that five season stretch. Play on this game to go over the total for a 10* rating. |
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01-17-16 | Steelers v. Broncos -7.5 | Top | 16-23 | Loss | -101 | 42 h 27 m | Show |
Pittsburgh @ Denver 4:40 PM ET Play On: Denver -7.5 (10*) I’m no doctor, but torn ligament and a sprained AC joint in your throwing shoulder isn’t a good thing for a quarterback. Ben Roethlisberger is as tough as they come. However, I’m fairly sure that the Steelers vertical passing game will be hindered by his injuries, not to mention all world wide receiver Antonio Brown being doubtful due to a concussion. In addition, they’ll be facing one of if not the best defensive unit (Denver) in the NFL. Another point that can’t be overlooked is the 26 turnovers committed by Pittsburgh during its last eleven games. Giving Peyton Manning an extra week to prepare against a suspect at best Pittsburgh defense will provide another edge for Denver. Any home favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 that has a winning record, and has won 19 or more of their last 32 home games, versus an opponent coming off road wins in each of their previous two games, and they have a winning percentage of greater than .571, resulted in those home favorites going 18-0 SU&ATS since 1988. Those home favorites won those contests by a lofty average of 18.2 points per game. Play on the Denver Broncos minus the points for a 10* Top Play pick. |
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01-16-16 | Packers v. Cardinals -7 | Top | 20-26 | Loss | -115 | 26 h 7 m | Show |
Green Bay @ Arizona 8:15 PM ET Play On: Arizona -7.0 (10*) Let’s not get carried away with the so called offensive resurgence by Green Bay last week. They caught a monumental break by drawing a Washington team that won the “NFL Least” with a 9-7 record. They will be facing a much tougher defense this week as well. Arizona was #5 in total defense as well as #7 in scoring defense in the NFL this season. The Cardinals were also #1 in total offense and #2 in scoring. These teams met in Week 16 of the regular season, and Arizona blew out Green Bay by a score of 36-8. Green Bay was only able to amass 178 yards of offense in that loss and tuned the ball over 4 times. They also sacked the usually elusive Aaron Rodgers 9 times. Arizona is 15-0 in their last 15 home games against non-division opponents, and they were also 10-5 ATS in those contests. Since 11/26/2012, Green Bay has gone 1-7 SU&ATS as a road underdog of 2.0 to 8.0 points. Any non-division playoff home favorite of 3.0 or more that’s won 19 or more of their previous 32 games, versus an opponent coming off a game in which they scored 35 points or more, and that opponent is playing with revenge, resulted in the home favorite going 24-3 SU&ATS (88.8%) since 1980. Play on the Arizona Cardinals minus the points for a 10* Top Play selection. |
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01-10-16 | Seahawks v. Vikings +4.5 | Top | 10-9 | Win | 100 | 13 h 0 m | Show |
The Vikings will be playing with big time revenge stemming from an embarrassing 38-7 home loss to Seattle in early December. It also must be kept in mind, playoff home underdogs of 4.0 or more have gone 4-0 ATS since 1980, and won three of those contests straight up. The Vikings have gone 9-2 straight up and 8-3 ATS during their last 11 home games. During that successful home stretch, they’ve also gone 6-1 SU&ATS against non-division opponents. Minnesota finished the regular season by going 3-0 SU&ATS, and allowed an average of just 16.7 points per game. Any home underdog of 7.0 or less, playing with same season revenge, coming off three or more wins in a row with the last as an underdog, versus an opponent coming off a win, and that opponent has a winning percentage of .625 or better, resulted in those home underdogs going 15-0 SU&ATS since 1985. The underdog won all of those games outright by an average of 10.0 points per contest. Play on the Minnesota Vikings as a 10* Top Play selection. |
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01-03-16 | Raiders +7.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 19 h 42 m | Show |
Kansas City won the first meeting between these teams 34-20 in Oakland. The final score of that contest is quite deceptive. Oakland blew a 20-13 fourth quarter lead in that contest, and it was a direct result of three David Carr interceptions thrown in that final stanza. One of those picks was returned for a touchdown, and the other two turned into touchdowns on Kansas City drives following the change of possession. Oakland actually held a 361-222 advantage in total yards during the defeat. Oakland has gone 4-3 straight up and 5-2 ATS on the road this season. As a matter of fact, they’ve gone 4-0 ATS this season as an away underdog, and won three of those contests outright. Jack Del Rio is a perfect 8-0 against the spread in his head coaching career when his teams were playing with same season revenge. Any division away underdog of 9.5 or less with a win percentage of better than .400, playing with revenge after game 12 of the season, coming off a straight up home win in which they were installed as a favorite, versus an opponent coming off a straight up win, and they possess a winning percentage of .600 or better, resulted in those away underdogs going 23-1 ATS (95.8%) since 1983. The underdog also won 18 of those 24 (75%) games outright. Play on the Oakland Raiders plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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12-27-15 | Packers v. Cardinals -4 | Top | 8-38 | Win | 100 | 22 h 48 m | Show |
Arizona is coming off a 40-17 win at Philadelphia last Sunday night. The Cardinals are 9-0 SU&ATS in their last nine home games following a non-division away win, and won by an average of 18.7 points per contest. Since the start of the 2013 season, Arizona is a perfect 14-0 at home against non-division opponent, and their average margin of victory was 8.4 points per contest. Since 11/25/2012, Green Bay has gone a dismal 2-8 ATS as an away underdog of 7.0 or less. Any favorite (Arizona) of 5.0 or less that has a win percentage of .684 or better, versus an opponent which is three straight covers as a favorite, resulted in those favorites going 15-0 SU&ATS since 1997. The average margin of victory was 15.0 points per game. Play on the Arizona Cardinals minus the points as a 10* Top Play selection. |
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12-21-15 | Lions v. Saints -2.5 | Top | 35-27 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 38 m | Show |
I just don’t see the Lions recovering from that gut wrenching home loss to Green Bay two weeks ago. They played uninspired football in last Sunday’s 21-14 loss as a 3.0 point favorite at St. Louis. Detroit is 1-14 ATS in their last fifteen on the road after game 9 of the season. The Saints showed me a lot of character by going on the road last week and churning out a 24-17 win at Tampa Bay. With the way their season has gone, it would’ve been easy to mail it in last week, and especially so on the road. The Saints are 10-2 ATS in their last twelve games as a home favorite of 4.0 or less. Any non-division home favorite of 5.5 or less, coming off a straight up underdog win versus a division opponent, versus a team coming off a straight up favorite loss, resulted in the home favorites going 20-2 ATS (90.9%) since 1988. Play on the New Orleans Saints minus the points for a 10* Top Play selection. |
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12-17-15 | Bucs v. Rams -2.5 | Top | 23-31 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
The Rams opened as a 1.0 point underdog in this contest, and has since moved to a current line of either -2.5 or -3.0. This huge line movement has taken place despite the fact that the volume of point spread wagers have been virtually even. However, the bigger bets and sharper money has decisively gone on the Rams, and in my opinion for good reason. St. Louis is coming off a 21-14 home win last week over Detroit. Tampa Bay sustained a 24-17 home defeat to New Orleans this past Sunday, and that loss was a crushing blow to their already feint playoff hopes. Any home team playing after game 11 of the season, coming off a home win in which they allowed 22 points or less, and they have a .384 or better win percentage, versus a non-division opponents with a losing record and coming off a home loss, resulted in those home teams going 30-0 straight up since 1980. Considering the small number we’re being asked to cover, the straight up results take on a more added significance. Play on the St. Louis Rams for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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12-13-15 | Patriots v. Texans OVER 45 | Top | 27-6 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
Obviously the Patriots offense has been slowed a bit in recent weeks due to the loss of wide receiver Julian Edelman, all world tight end Rob Gronkowski, and running back Dion Lewis. None of those three players will be in uniform today. However, Tom Brady is still their quarterback, and no team in the NFL adjusts better to the personnel that’s available than New England. The Patriots have gone 4-1 over the total on the road this season, and there was a combined average of 55.2 points scored per contest. Houston’s defense dominant three game run came to a screeching halt last week in a 30-21 loss at Buffalo. The Bills offense racked up 390 yards of total offense, and that included 183 yards on the ground. Buffalo also may have established the blueprint to Neutralizing J.J. Watt who was a non-factor in last Sunday’s game. On the other hand, the Texans offense was able to amass 401 yards of total offense in the loss. During the past three seasons, Houston is 7-1 over the total as a home underdog of 7.0 or less. Play on this game to go over the total for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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11-29-15 | Giants -2.5 v. Redskins | Top | 14-20 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 38 m | Show |
Eli Manning versus Kirk Cousins, and Tom Coughlin against Jay Gruden, and I’m fairly certain you see where I’m going with this. The Giants have gone a perfect 5-0 SU&ATS in their last five meetings with the Redskins. In addition, the Giants have been notorious for coming up with superb performances on the road in big games since Tom Coughlin has been in charge. The Giants are averaging 35.7 points and 388.3 yards of total offense in their previous three contests. Washington is allowing 28.3 points and 392.7 yards per game in their last three contests. Any road underdog or favorite of 3.0 or less playing in game 10 of the season or beyond, coming off a straight up loss but ATS cover in their previous game, versus an opponent with a winning percentage of .100 to .499, resulted in that road team going 25-1 SU&ATS (96.1%) since 1991. Play on the New York Giants for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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11-26-15 | Bears +9 v. Packers | Top | 17-13 | Win | 100 | 25 h 1 m | Show |
Chicago has gone a very respectable 4-3 during their previous seven games. Their three losses during that stretch have all come by 3 points or less. The Bears defense has shown a substantial improvement this year under the guidance of new head coach John Fox. They’ve allowed 23 points or less in six of their last seven games. During their season opening 31-23 loss to Green Bay, they held the Packers to just 322 yards of total offense. They’ve also held four of their previous nine opponents to 300 yards or less. Matt Forte is expected to return for this game, and that will certainly give the Bears an additional boost. The Packers snapped a three game losing streak last Sunday with a 30-13 win at Minnesota. Their offense still doesn’t look like that overwhelming attach they’ve been in recent years. During their last four contests they’re averaging a mediocre 21.3 points and 308.5 yards per game. Any division away underdog of 3.0 to 9.5, playing with revenge, versus an opponent coming off a division away underdog straight up win in which they covered by 10.0 or more, resulted in the road underdog going 27-2 ATS (93.1%) since 1986. The underdog also won 14 of those 29 games outright. Play on the Chicago Bears for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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11-22-15 | Packers v. Vikings | Top | 30-13 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 28 m | Show |
The Packers are sorely missing their deep vertical threat Jordy Nelson, and especially so during this current three game losing streak. Opposing defenses have really figured out how to neutralize the usually explosive Packers offense. You may be surprised to know that Green Bay is 1-8 SU&ATS in their last nine games as an away pick or underdog of 7.5 or less, and that includes 0-5 SU&ATS as an underdog of 3.5 or less (-16.2 PPG). The Vikings are a perfect 4-0 SU&ATS at home this season with an average victory margin of 9.0 points per game. As a matter of fact, they’ve won 7 in a row at home dating back to last season, and are 13-3 in the last 16 in Minnesota. Considering the current point spread, and the fact they’re facing an opponent that’s currently struggling, there’s a lot of betting value for the home side. Minnesota is coming road underdog straight up 30-14 win at Oakland last Sunday. Any NFL home favorite or underdog of 3.0 or less, coming off an away underdog straight up win by 10 points or more, and they allowed 20 points or less, resulted in the home team going 17-2 SU&ATS since 1996. Play on the Minnesota Vikings for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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11-08-15 | Packers -2.5 v. Panthers | Top | 29-37 | Loss | -110 | 41 h 5 m | Show |
For the second consecutive week Green Bay is installed as a road favorite against an undefeated opponent. Unfortunately for them, the first time around didn’t go well. They were beaten quite convincingly at Denver by a score of 29-10, and were outgained in that contest 500-140. Star quarterback Aaron Rogers suffered through one of, if not the worst day of his illustrious career. Despite that loss, the books seem undeterred. The last I checked, they’re not generous, nor charitable to sports bettors. Public perception will look at the Packers loss last week, and believe they’re getting an absolute steal with an undefeated home underdog this week. The reality of the situation, if it looks that easy, it seldom is. Since 12/28/2008, Green Bay has gone 23-5-1 following a loss. That number is even more impressive if they’re coming off a loss against a non-division opponent. The Packers are 17-2-1 during that exact time frame when coming off a non-division defeat in their previous game, and they’re also 15-5 ATS in those contests. Since the start of the 2011 NFL season, any road favorite that’s coming off a road favorite straight up loss, resulted in that team going 14-5 ATS (73.7%). It’s even more profitable if they’re a favorite of 4.5 or less, going 9-1 ATS during that exact time frame. The Packers defense had been vastly improved and quite impressive this season. That is of course, until last Sunday’s debacle in Denver. However, that Denver defense appears to be the best in the NFL at this juncture, and especially so when playing at home. The Panthers defense is very good as well, but they won’t present the same challenges to Aaron Rogers and company that they encountered last Sunday. Speaking of Aaron Rogers, he’s not going to have two bad games in a row. The Green Bay defense will also be out to atone for last week’s embarrassing performance, and I firmly believe they’ll bounce back in a big way. Play on the Green Bay Packers for a 10* wager. |
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11-01-15 | Packers v. Broncos +3.5 | Top | 10-29 | Win | 100 | 29 h 1 m | Show |
The Denver Broncos have gone an outstanding 23-1 in their last 24 regular season home games, and that includes15-0 if they’re facing a non-division opponent. You may be surprised to know that Green Bay has gone an uninspiring 7-12 in their last 19 non-division away games, and that includes 2-7 as a favorite or underdog of 3.5 or less. Let’s briefly discuss the matter of an undefeated home team at this juncture of the season. Any NFL home team that’s undefeated, and playing in games 7 through 13 of the season, versus an opponent with a winning percentage of .200 or better, resulted in that undefeated home underdog going 25-2 (92.6%) since 2004. Play on the Denver Broncos plus the points as my “NFL Game of the Year Part I”. |
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10-25-15 | Cleveland Browns +6.5 v. St Louis Rams | Top | 6-24 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 56 m | Show |
The St. Louis Rams have gone a dismal 3-9 ATS as a home favorite of 10.0 or less since 2011. St. Louis has gone 1-3 SU&ATS in their last four games, and their inept offensive play has been a major contributor to those defeats. During that four game stretch, they’ve averaged just 12.5 points and 288.3 yards per game. The Browns are coming off a gut wrenching 26-23 overtime home loss to undefeated Denver last Sunday. It was the third consecutive game for Cleveland that was decided by 3 points. Prior to the Denver loss, they were a 33-30 winner at Baltimore, and that was preceded by a 30-27 defeat at San Diego. Cleveland’s last three losses have come by a combined 13 points. Since Mike Pettine took over as head coach last season, Cleveland has gone a perfect 7-0 ATS as an underdog following a loss. Cleveland could’ve very easily won each of their last five instead of going 2-3 during that span. There’s nothing apparent which would lead me to believe that Cleveland won’t be in this game for the duration, or possibly even pull off an outright upset. Play on the Browns for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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10-18-15 | Carolina Panthers v. Seattle Seahawks -7 | Top | 27-23 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 6 m | Show |
Seattle possesses an extremely strong home field advantage. The only other team that it’s even in the same stratosphere is Green Bay. Since the start of the 2012 season, Seattle has gone 28-2 at Century Link Field. They’ve also been a cash cow at home during that stretch, going 21-9 (70%) ATS, and includes a perfect 12-0 SU&ATS as an underdog or favorite of 7.5 or less. Seattle has allowed a combined 10 points in their first two games at Century Link Field, and the only touchdown they surrendered came on a defensive fumble return by Detroit. The Seahawks defense allowed just 146 yards to Chicago, and 256 against Detroit during those two home contests The Carolina Panthers are coming off a bye week. You would think a 4-0 team playing with rest, and installed as an underdog, would provide an optimum betting edge. Well think again, because the ATS history of this exact situation says otherwise. The Panthers were a 37-23 winner at Tampa Bay in their previous game, and covered easily as a 3.0 point road favorite. This becomes an extremely rare scenario where you have an away underdog playing with rest, and is coming off an away favorite ATS win. This is just the eleventh such time this has occurred since 1980. Any away underdog playing with rest, and is coming off an away favorite ATS win, has gone 1-9 ATS in addition to losing all ten games outright. Carolina has defeated Jacksonville, Houston, New Orleans, and Tampa Bay on their way to a 4-0 start. Those four teams were a combined 5-15 heading into this week’s action. This is clearly an overrated Carolina team. Contrarily, they’re certainly not being overvalued by the sportsbooks this week considering they’re a touchdown underdog versus an opponent that currently sports a losing record. Play on the Seattle Seahawks minus the points as a 10* top Play selection. |
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10-11-15 | Jacksonville Jaguars +3 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Top | 31-38 | Loss | -115 | 23 h 10 m | Show |
At this stage of their careers, I much prefer Blake Bortles at quarterback over highly prized rookie Jameis Winston. Jacksonville deserved a better fate in last week’s 16-13 overtime loss at Indianapolis. The Jaguars three losses this season have come against opponents that are a combined 10-2. Tampa Bay has been outscored in their two home games by a wide margin of 79-37. The Buccaneers have also committed 10 turnovers during their first four games of the year, and Jacksonville has turned it over just 4 times in as many contests. Any road favorite or underdog of 3.0 or less that’s won 13 or less of their previous 32 games, coming off a loss by 3 points or less, versus an opponent that allowed 30 points or more in their last game, that opponent (Buccaneers) has a winning percentage of less than .600, resulted in the road team going 25-3 SU&ATS (89.3%) since 1980. Play on the Jacksonville Jaguars plus the points as a 10* Top Play selection. |
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10-04-15 | Kansas City Chiefs v. Cincinnati Bengals -3 | Top | 21-36 | Win | 100 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
Cincinnati has not only won their first three games, but they covered on each of those occasions. NFL history has shown that home favorites or underdogs of 9.0 or less, playing in game 4 of the season, and were 3-0 SUATS in their first 3 contests, coming off a game in which they covered by 15.0 or less while scoring 20 points or more, resulted in the home team going 12-1 SU&ATS since 1980. Needless to say, this exact situation clearly favors Cincinnati. In addition, the Bengals are 17-4-1 straight up in their last twenty-two at home, including 16-5-1 ATS. They’ve also gone an extremely profitable 8-1 SU & ATS in their last nine as a home underdog or favorite of 5.5 or less. All those games have come under the watchful eye of current head coach Marvin Lewis. This is a classic example of one team (Chiefs) not living up to their preseason billing, and the other (Bengals) being much better than even the positive predictions would have implied. Of course it’s still very early, but the situation shapes up very nicely for a Bengals cover. Any favorite of 6.5 or less coming off SU&ATS wins in each of their previous two games, and the last one came as an underdog, versus an opponent coming off a loss in which they allowed 37 points or more, resulted in the favorite going 24-5 ATS (82.7%) since 1981. Play on Cincinnati minus the points as a 10* Top Play selection. |
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09-27-15 | Oakland Raiders v. Cleveland Browns -3 | Top | 27-20 | Loss | -130 | 25 h 29 m | Show |
Oakland has lost the last 10, and they’re 1-19 during their previous twenty road games. When looking inside those numbers, the Raiders have seen 18 of those 19 losses come by 4 points or more. Need I remind you what the current point spread is? As a matter of fact, they were an underdog in each contest, and were +6.0 or more in 19 of those 20 games. The Raiders are in relatively unchartered waters as this small of a road underdog. I understand the Raiders are coming off an impressive home underdog straight up win last week over Baltimore. However, Oakland has gone 0-9 SU&ATS in their previous nine games following a win, and lost those contests by an average of 21.1 points per game. Josh McCown has been cleared to play and by all account he will resume as the Browns starting quarterback. Johnny Manziel filled in admirably last week in McCown’s absence during Cleveland’s 28-14 home win over Tennessee. I may be in the minority, but I don’t feel as though McCown is a huge upgrade over Manziel, nor do I believe there a significant drop off when “Johnny Football” is under center. One thing I do like a lot in this matchup is the Browns defense. Raiders quarterback Derek Carr is bright young star in the making, but he will be in a very tough environment at “The Dawg Pound” on Sunday. Play on the Cleveland Browns minus the points as a 10* Top Play selection. |
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01-18-15 | Indianapolis Colts v. New England Patriots -6.5 | Top | 7-45 | Win | 100 | 27 h 13 m | Show |
It may be a bit of an old fashioned approach, but certainly is a proven winning formula at playoff time. The New England Patriots are an impressive +13 in the turnover department this season, while the Colts are a -6. That's a huge +19 turnover differential disparity between that favors the Patriots. I would be foolish to ignore that factor. This is also a New England team which has gone an outstanding 23-8 ATS (74.2%) in their last 31-games as a home favorite of 9.0 or less. They've faced the Colts three times since 2012, and have gone 3-0 SU&ATS in those contests. Even more impressive is the decisiveness of those three wins by the scores of 42-20, 43-22, and 59-24. Since the start of the 2011 season, the Colts are 1-7 SU&ATS as an away underdog of 7.5 or less versus an opponent with a winning percentage of .500 or better. |
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01-10-15 | Carolina Panthers +12 v. Seattle Seahawks | Top | 17-31 | Loss | -130 | 29 h 60 m | Show |
Since the start of the 2012 season, the Carolina Panthers have gone an extremely profitable 15-5 ATS as an underdog of 2.5 or more, and they're not coming off a week of rest. The Panthers have gone 10-9-1 straight up in those contests as well. The Panthers have faced the Seahawks in each of the past two season, and although they lost in both games, the outcomes were in jeopardy throughout the entire games. This strongly suggests to me that the Panthers are one of the few teams in the NFL that stack up quite well versus Seattle. |
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01-04-15 | Cincinnati Bengals v. Indianapolis Colts UNDER 49 | Top | 10-26 | Win | 100 | 20 h 26 m | Show |
The Bengals have seen their last 6-games on the road all go under the total. The average total in those games was 46.9, and the average points scored was 33.3. Those 6-games stayed under the total by a decisive average of 13.6 points per contest. I look for the Bengals to rely heavily on their running game. Especially considering star wide receiver A.J. Green is doubtful to play due to a concussion, and tight end Jermaine Gresham is far less than 100% due to a back injury. The Bengals have rushed for an impressive 557-yards over their previous 3-games, and averaged a superb 5.1 yards per rushing attempt. The Cincinnati run defense has been outstanding in their previous 5 road games. They've allowed opponents a total of only 296-yards during that time, and surrendered a paltry 2.8 yards per attempt. |
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01-03-15 | Arizona Cardinals +6.5 v. Carolina Panthers | Top | 16-27 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 33 m | Show |
I understand that the Cardinals are limited offensively with 3rd string quarterback Ryan Lindley. However, they're still a quality football team, and shouldn't be a sizable underdog versus an opponent with a losing record. In case you're wondering, the Cardinals are 19-2 ATS in their last 21-games as an underdog of 6.5 or less, and if they were facing an opponent with a winning percentage of less than .571, they improve to 12-0 ATS. On the other hand, Carolina has gone 2-8 ATS in their last 10-games as a non-division home favorite of between 3.0 and 6.5. The Cardinals finished the regular season by losing their final two games. Believe it or not, NFL Playoff betting history shows teams that enter the playoffs on a down note similar to the Cardinals have done very well. Since 1990, any non-division playoff team, coming off two losses in a row, and is facing an opponent with a winning percentage of less than .625, has gone 8-0 ATS, and won 7 of those 8 outright. |
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12-28-14 | Cincinnati Bengals v. Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 | Top | 17-27 | Win | 107 | 25 h 56 m | Show |
Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh 8:30 PM ET |
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12-28-14 | Carolina Panthers v. Atlanta Falcons UNDER 48 | Top | 34-3 | Win | 100 | 22 h 16 m | Show |
Carolina @ Atlanta 4:25 PM ET |
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12-21-14 | Indianapolis Colts v. Dallas Cowboys -3 | Top | 7-42 | Win | 100 | 22 h 34 m | Show |
Indianapolis @ Dallas 4:25 PM ET |
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12-20-14 | San Diego Chargers v. San Francisco 49ers -1 | Top | 38-35 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
San Diego @ San Francisco 8:25 PM ET |
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12-14-14 | San Francisco 49ers +10.5 v. Seattle Seahawks | Top | 7-17 | Win | 100 | 42 h 17 m | Show |
San Francisco @ Seattle 4:25 PM ET |
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12-14-14 | Cincinnati Bengals v. Cleveland Browns | Top | 30-0 | Loss | -110 | 39 h 49 m | Show |
Cincinnati @ Cleveland 1:00 PM ET |
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12-07-14 | Baltimore Ravens +3 v. Miami Dolphins | Top | 28-13 | Win | 100 | 49 h 1 m | Show |
Baltimore @ Miami 1:00 PM ET |
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11-30-14 | Carolina Panthers +3 v. Minnesota Vikings | Top | 13-31 | Loss | -135 | 20 h 15 m | Show |
Carolina @ Minnesota 1:00 PM ET |
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11-27-14 | Philadelphia Eagles v. Dallas Cowboys -3 | Top | 33-10 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 31 m | Show |
Philadelphia @ Dallas 4:30 PM ET |
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11-23-14 | Arizona Cardinals v. Seattle Seahawks -7 | Top | 3-19 | Win | 100 | 21 h 55 m | Show |
Arizona @ Seattle 4:05 PM ET |
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11-16-14 | Detroit Lions v. Arizona Cardinals | Top | 6-14 | Win | 100 | 23 h 57 m | Show |
Detroit @ Arizona 4:25 PM ET |
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11-13-14 | Buffalo Bills +7 v. Miami Dolphins | Top | 9-22 | Loss | -140 | 25 h 12 m | Show |
Buffalo @ Miami 8:20 PM ET |
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11-09-14 | NY Giants v. Seattle Seahawks -8 | Top | 17-38 | Win | 100 | 21 h 51 m | Show |
Giants @ Seahawks 4:25 PM ET |
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11-02-14 | San Diego Chargers v. Miami Dolphins OVER 44.5 | Top | 0-37 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 25 m | Show |
San Diego @ Miami 1;00 PM ET |
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10-26-14 | Green Bay Packers v. New Orleans Saints -1 | Top | 23-44 | Win | 100 | 26 h 13 m | Show |
Green Bay @ New Orleans 8:30 PM ET |
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10-19-14 | Carolina Panthers v. Green Bay Packers -6.5 | Top | 17-38 | Win | 100 | 18 h 22 m | Show |
Carolina @ Green Bay 1:00 PM ET |
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10-16-14 | NY Jets +10.5 v. New England Patriots | Top | 25-27 | Win | 100 | 24 h 39 m | Show |
Jets @ Patriots 8:20 PM ET |
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10-12-14 | Pittsburgh Steelers v. Cleveland Browns -1 | Top | 10-31 | Win | 100 | 21 h 8 m | Show |
Pittsburgh @ Cleveland 1:00 PM ET |
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10-05-14 | Kansas City Chiefs v. San Francisco 49ers -5 | Top | 17-22 | Push | 0 | 20 h 56 m | Show |
Kansas City @ San Francisco 4:25 ET |
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09-28-14 | Philadelphia Eagles v. San Francisco 49ers -4.5 | Top | 21-26 | Win | 100 | 24 h 51 m | Show |
Eagles @ 49ers 4:25 PM ET |
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09-21-14 | San Francisco 49ers v. Arizona Cardinals +3 | Top | 14-23 | Win | 105 | 24 h 3 m | Show |
San Francisco @ Arizona 4:05 PM ET |
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09-14-14 | NY Jets +8.5 v. Green Bay Packers | Top | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 44 h 11 m | Show |
Jets @ Packers 4:25 ET |
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09-08-14 | San Diego Chargers v. Arizona Cardinals -3 | Top | 17-18 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 2 m | Show |
San Diego @ Arizona 10:20 PM ET |
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09-07-14 | Cincinnati Bengals v. Baltimore Ravens -1 | Top | 23-16 | Loss | -120 | 72 h 39 m | Show |
Cincinnati @ Baltimore 1:00 PM ET |
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09-04-14 | Green Bay Packers v. Seattle Seahawks -5 | Top | 16-36 | Win | 100 | 81 h 40 m | Show |
Green Bay @ Seattle 8:30 PM ET |
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02-02-14 | Seattle Seahawks v. Denver Broncos -2 | Top | 43-8 | Loss | -113 | 27 h 10 m | Show |
In my humble opinion the #1 offense of Denver, versus the #1 defense of Seattle, will cancel each other out. The Broncos defense has played far better than the Seattle offense down the stretch of the regular season, and in the playoffs. Giving Peyton Manning 2 weeks to prepare in any situation isn't good for an opposing defense, let alone in a game of this magnitude.
Any Super Bowl favorite of 12.0 or less and a total of 47.0 or more, and their coming off a home favorite ATS win, has gone 5-0 SU&ATS since 1984. They've won those 5-games by an average of 20.4 points per game. Play on the Denver Broncos as a 10* Best Bet selection. |
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01-19-14 | San Francisco 49ers v. Seattle Seahawks -3 | Top | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 47 h 56 m | Show |
The Seahawks are 8-1 at home this season, and dating back to last they've gone 16-1 in their last 17 at Seattle. Included in those home victories were a pair of wins versus the 49ers winning 29-3 this season, and 42-13 in 2012. Both of those wins came before a national prime time audience. This will be the same, with the only difference being the stakes are much higher. Seattle is a perfect 6-0 SU&ATS the last years in the 2nd half of the season versus opponents that average 130 or more yards per game rushing.
San Francisco is coming off 2 straight playoff road wins to advance the the NFC Championship Game. The postseason hasn't been kind to teams that have taken a similar path. As a matter of fact playoff away underdogs of between 3.5 to 7.0, that come of 2 playoff road wins in a row, have gone 0-6 SU & ATS since the beginning of the 1987 season. In addition the 49ers have caught two very fortunate draws in the first 2 rounds the this seasons playoffs. They defeated a mediocre at best Green Bay team, who won the NFC North pretty much by default, after both Detroit and Chicago fell apart down the stretch. The last week they defeated a Carolina team that overachieved this season, and had very little playoff experience on their roster. Any home favorite of between 3.5 to 10.0 that has a winning record on the season, versus an opponent coming off 2 straight road wins in their previous 2- games, has gone 24-5 ATS (82.8%) since the beginning of the 1983 season. Play on the Seattle Seahawks minus the points as a 10* Best Bet selection. |
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01-11-14 | Indianapolis Colts v. New England Patriots -7 | Top | 22-43 | Win | 100 | 23 h 10 m | Show |
This is a New England team that's gone 40-6 in their last 46, and 58-9 in their last 67 home games under the guidance of head coach Bill Belichick. The Patriots are also 11-1 in their last 12 home games following a bye week under Belichick. There's no doubt that the Colts have been a whole different team since Andrew Luck came into the picture in 2012. However, they're still a dismal 1-5 SU&ATS on the road during that period versus an opponent with a winning record. Their comeback versus Kansas City last week was of epic proportions. In my opinion they will be emotionally spent this week on the road, versus an opponent that's rested, and in one of the more tougher stadiums to win at in the NFL.
Any home favorite or more that's playing in game 11 of the season or beyond, and they have a better than .666 winning percentage, versus an opponent coming off a home underdog straight up win, and they have a winning record on the season, has gone 20-1 ATS since the beginning of the 1981 season. If that home favorite of 4.0 or more is coming off a bye week, they improve to 11-0 SU&ATS, and win by an average of 21.6 points per game, since the beginning of the 1980 season. Play on the New England Patriots minus the points as a 10* Best Bet selection. |
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01-05-14 | San Francisco 49ers -2.5 v. Green Bay Packers | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 25 h 40 m | Show |
Any favorite or underdog of 2.5 or less (San Francisco) that's playing in game 15 of the season or beyond, that's coming off a division away win by 16-points or less, versus an opponent (Green Bay) coming off a win, has gone 14-0 SU&ATS since the beginning of the 1992 season. The average margin of victory in those 14-games is 12.5 points.
Any away favorite with a winning percentage of .600 or better that's playing in game 9 of the season or beyond, they've won 15 or more of their last 32-games, versus an opponent coming off an away favorite ATS win in which they scored 42-points or less, and that opponent has a less than .600 winning percentage, has gone 10-0 SU&ATS since the beginning of the 1999 season. The away team won those 10-games by an average of 13.0 points. Any favorite or underdog of 2.5 or less (San Francisco), that comes off an away win by 3-points or less, they're playing in game 10 of the season or beyond, they have a winning percentage of between .600 to .750, versus an opponent (Green Bay) with a winning record, has gone 7-0 SU&ATS since the beginning of the 1992 season. The average margin of victory in those 7-games was 16.4 points. Play on the San Francisco 49ers as a 10* Best Bet selection. |
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01-05-14 | San Diego Chargers v. Cincinnati Bengals -6.5 | Top | 27-10 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 6 m | Show |
The Bengals are 8-0 SU&ATS at home this season with a huge +17.7 point per game differential. Going back to last season they're 11-1 SU&ATS in their last 12 at Paul Brown Stadium. The Chargers are extremely fortunate to be in the playoffs. The early start time, and cold weather, will be a major nuisance for a west coast team like the Chargers.
Any playoff non-division home favorite of 5.0 or more that's playing in game 17 of the season, that's coming off a division win by 6-points or more, versus an opponent playing with revenge, and that opponent has a winning percentage of less than .647, has gone 8-0 SU&ATS since the beginning of the 1980 season. The home favorite has won those 8 playoff games by an average of 28.9 points per game. Play on the Cincinnati Bengals minus the points as a 10* Best Bet selection. |
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01-04-14 | New Orleans Saints v. Philadelphia Eagles -2 | Top | 26-24 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 14 m | Show |
You may be surprised to know the Saints are 0-6 SU&ATS in their last 6 as an away underdog, after allowing 13-points or more in their previous game. All of those contests have taken place since 10/28/2012. The Eagles are 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4-games as a pick or favorite of 3.0 or less, and won those 4-games by an average of 25.0 points per game. After enduring an 0-10 SU&ATS stretch at home, the Eagles have followed that up by winning their last 4 in the "City of Brotherly Love". They won those 4-games by an average of 17.0 points per game.
Any home favorite or underdog of 2.5 or less playing in game 15 of the season or beyond, and is coming off a division away straight up win, has gone 17-0 SU&ATS since the beginning of the 1989 season. The home team won those 17-games by an average of 11.7 points per game. Play on the Philadelphia Eagles as a 10* Best Bet selection. |
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12-29-13 | San Francisco 49ers v. Arizona Cardinals +1 | Top | 23-20 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 13 m | Show |
Arizona is 9-1 SU&ATS in their last 10-games as a home favorite or underdog of 3.5 or less. If they're facing an opponent coming off a win in that exact previously mentioned situation, then they improve to 7-0 SU&ATS in their last 7, and all of those contests have taken place since 11/6/2011.
Any division home favorite or underdog of 2.5 or less with a winning record, that's playing in game 13 of the season or beyond, and is coming off an away underdog straight up win is 8-0 SU&ATS since 1992. The home team won those 8-games by an average of 12.4 points per game. Play on the Arizona Cardinals as a 10* Best Bet selection. |
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12-22-13 | Minnesota Vikings v. Cincinnati Bengals -8 | Top | 14-42 | Win | 100 | 19 h 33 m | Show |
The Bengals are 7-0 SU&ATS in their last 7 home games winning by an average of 14.6 points per game. Cincinnati is also a very dominant 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3-games as a favorite following a loss, and won those contests by an average of 18.0 points per game. The Vikings are a dismal 3-14 ATS and 2-15 straight up in their last 17 road games, after allowing 24-points or more in their previous game.
Any non-division home favorite of 3.5 or more that's coming off an away favorite straight up loss, they're playing in game 4 of the season or beyond, versus an opponent coming off a home underdog straight up win in which they scored 17-points or more, and they have a winning percentage of .200 or better, has gone 8-0 SU&ATS since the beginning of the 1980 season. The home favorite has won those 8-games by an average of 16.8 points per game. Play on the Cincinnati Bengals minus the points as my 10* "NFL Blowout Game of the Week". |
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12-15-13 | San Francisco 49ers -5 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Top | 33-14 | Win | 100 | 14 h 44 m | Show |
Any regular season away favorite of 5.5 or less that allowed 25-points or less in their previous game, versus an opponent coming off a home favorite ATS win that they covered by 19.0 points or less, and they've won 15 or less of their last 32-games is 21-0 SU&ATS since the beginning of the 1994 season. The away favorite won those 21-games by an average of 11.7 points per game. Play on the San Francisco 49ers as a 5* selection.
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12-08-13 | Carolina Panthers +3.5 v. New Orleans Saints | Top | 13-31 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 3 m | Show |
Carolina @ New Orleans 8:30 ET
Play On: Carolina +3.5 (10*) Any away underdog playing in game 9 of the season or beyond that's coming off a home favorite ATS win that they covered by 27.0 or less, versus an opponent coming off an non-division away underdog ATS loss by 13-points or more, and they have a better than .333 winning percentage is 16-2 ATS since the beginning of the 1980 season. Play on the Carolina Panthers plus the points as a 10* Best Bet selection. |
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12-05-13 | Houston Texans -3 v. Jacksonville Jaguars | Top | 20-27 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 3 m | Show |
This line speaks volumes when you have a favorite that has lost 10-games in a row like the Texans have.In addition this is a Jacksonville team that gone 1-11 straight up, and 2-10 ATS at home since the beginning of the 2012 season. I can even tighten that up further by telling you that they're 0-8 SU&ATS in that same time span, when installed as a non-division home underdog of 13.0 or less. The Jaguars have lost those 8-games by a whopping 22.2 points per game.
Any away favorite or underdog of 3.0 or less in game 9 of the season or beyond, that comes off a straight up loss in which they allowed 19-points or more, and they covered that game as an underdog, versus an opponent that allowed 38-points or less in their previous game is 41-5 ATS (89.1%) since the beginning of the 1980 season. The away team also won 40 of those 46-games straight up. Play on the Houston Texans as a 10* Best Bet selection. |
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12-02-13 | New Orleans Saints v. Seattle Seahawks -5.5 | Top | 7-34 | Win | 100 | 7 h 43 m | Show |
The Seahawks have arguably the best home field advantage in the entire NFL. The Seahawks have gone a perfect 13-0 at home since the start of the 2012 season, and covered 10 of those 13 contests. In that same time span, if they're a home favorite or underdog of 10.0 or less, then they improve to 8-0 SU&ATS while winning by an average of 22.5 points per game.
Any regular season home favorite of 4.5 or more that comes off back-to-back favorite ATS win, they have a winning percentage of .866 or better, and they scored 45-points or less in their previous game, and the game isn't being played on a Sunday is 12-0 SU&ATS since the beginning of the 1980 season. The home favorite won those 12-games by an average of 22.3 points per game. Play on the Seattle Seahawks minus the points as a 10* Best Bet selection. |
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12-01-13 | Miami Dolphins +2.5 v. NY Jets | Top | 23-3 | Win | 100 | 20 h 41 m | Show |
The Dolphins have seen 4 of their 6 losses come by 4-0 points or less. They're much better than their 5-6 record may indicate. The Dolphins are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6-games versus the Jets. The Jets are 1-6 ATS in their last 7-games versus opponents with a losing record, including 0-4 ATS in the last 4 at home in that role. The Jets rookie starting quarterback Geno Smith has been horrible in his last 3 starts. Smith has completed a pathetic 39.1% of his pass attempts for 0 touchdowns and 5 interceptions.
Any away underdog or favorite of 3.0 or less that comes off a straight up loss in which they covered as an underdog, they're playing in game 5 of the season or beyond, and they have a winning percentage or better is 32-5 ATS (86.5%) since the beginning of the 1992 season. Play on the Miami Dolphins as a 10* Best Bet selection. |
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11-24-13 | Indianapolis Colts v. Arizona Cardinals -3 | Top | 11-40 | Win | 100 | 20 h 16 m | Show |
One team is better than their record may indicate, and the other isn't as good in that regard. The Colts have stole a couple of games this season they probably didn't deserve to win. The Cardinals have flown under the radar with no pun intended. The Arizona defense may be the most underrated stop unit in the NFL. Carson Palmer is finally starting to show his with after a shaky start to the season.The Cardinals are 8-2 SU&ATS in their last 8 as a home favorite or underdog of 3.0 or less versus an opponent coming off a win, and who has a winning percentage of better than .666.
Any home favorite of 3.5 or less that comes off an away favorite ATS win and has a winning percentage of less than .750, they've won 22 or less of their last 32-games, versus an opponent coming off a road win. and they have a winning percentage of .700 or better is 8-0 SU&ATS since the beginning of the 1987 season. The home favorite has won those 8-games by an average of 14.4 points per game. Play on the Arizona Cardinals as a 10* Best Bet selection. |
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11-18-13 | New England Patriots v. Carolina Panthers -1 | Top | 20-24 | Win | 100 | 6 h 5 m | Show |
Any Monday night non-division home favorite of 5.0 or less that comes off a straight up win, and has a winning percentage of better than .545 is 36-8 ATS since the beginning of the 1980 season. Play on the Carolina Panthers as a 10* Best Bet selection.
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11-17-13 | Kansas City Chiefs +7.5 v. Denver Broncos | Top | 17-27 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 17 m | Show |
Any undefeated team in game 10 of the season or beyond, and they're facing a division opponent has won all 16-games outright since the beginning of the 1980 season.
Any away underdog of 4.5 or more that comes off an away favorite ATS win that they covered by 3.0 or more, versus an opponent with a less than .900 winning percentage, and they're coming off an away favorite ATS win is 8-0 ATS since the beginning of the 1980 season. Play on the Kansas City Chiefs plus the points as amy10* Sunday Night Game of the Year. |
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11-17-13 | Baltimore Ravens v. Chicago Bears -3 | Top | 20-23 | Push | 0 | 14 h 44 m | Show |
Any home favorite of 3.5 or less that comes off a home underdog ATS loss, and they're playing in prior to game 14 of the season, versus an opponent coming off a home favorite ATS win is 9-0 SU&ATS since the beginning of the 1980 season. The home favorite won those 9-games by an average of 14.3 points per game.
Any non-division home favorite of 5.0 or less coming off home underdog ATS loss, that has a less than .600 winning percentage, and they're playing in game 6 of the season or beyond, versus an opponent coming off a win, and has a winning percentage of .200 or more is 14-0 SU&ATS since the beginning of the 1980 season. The home favorite won those 14-games by an average of 12.2 points per game. Play on the Chicago Bears minus the points as a 10* Best Bet selection. |
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11-10-13 | Houston Texans v. Arizona Cardinals -3 | Top | 24-27 | Push | 0 | 23 h 46 m | Show |
This is a tale of two teams headed in polar opposite directions. The Cardinals are legitimate playoff contenders in the NFL, while the Texans are developing into the poster team pretender. Carson Palmer is coming off his best game by far with his new team. The Cardinals are 7-1 SU&ATS in their last 8-games as a home favorite or underdog of 3.0 or less versus an opponent with a losing record. The Texans are 0-6 SU&ATS in their last 6-games as an away underdog of 5.0 or less following a loss by 14-points or less.
Any home favorite of 11.5 or less that's coming off a bye week and in their previous game they covered as a home favorite, versus an opponent coming off a SU&ATS loss is 11-0 SU&ATS since the start of the 2000 season. The home favorite won those 11-games by an average of 20.5 points per game. Play on the Arizona Cardinals minus the points as a 10* Best Bet selection. |
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11-03-13 | Pittsburgh Steelers +7 v. New England Patriots | Top | 31-55 | Loss | -115 | 17 h 29 m | Show |
As disaapointing a start to the season that the Steelers have had they
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10-28-13 | Seattle Seahawks -11.5 v. St Louis Rams | Top | 14-9 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 50 m | Show |
The Rams suffered a crushing blow to their season in their previous game when Sam Bradford injured his knee and was ruled out for the season. There's a huge drop off from Bradford to backup Kellen Clemens which will be even more evident versus a suffocating Seattle defense. The novelty of the Rams hosting their first Monday night game since 2006 is diminished by the fact the Cardinals will be hosting game 5 of the World Series tonight.
Seattle has shed the tag of being a team that can just win at home. The Seahawks have won 6 of their last 8 road games, including going a perfect 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 when playing an opponent with a less than .750 winning percentage. Seattle has owned St. Louis over the last 8 seasons winning 14 of the 16 meetings between these two clubs. Seattle comes off an impressive win on the road versus an underrated Arizona Cardinals team. The Seahawks easily covered that contest as a 4.5 point favorite winning 34-22. History is on Seattle's side as away favorites of 4.5 or more, that come off an away favorite ATS win, and have a winning percentage of better than .846 are a very profitable 30-12 ATS (71.4%) since the start of the 1980 season. That exact scenario has been even stronger since 2003 as the away favorite of 4.5 or more has gone an excellent 14-2 ATS. Any division road favorite of 6.0 or more that comes off an away favorite ATS win in which they covered by 3.0 or more, versus an opponent coming off an away underdog ATS loss is 9-0 SU&ATS since 1980. The road favorite won those 9-games by an average of 15.4 points per game. Play on the Seattle Seahawks minus the points as a 10* Best Bet selection. |
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10-27-13 | Atlanta Falcons v. Arizona Cardinals -1 | Top | 13-27 | Win | 100 | 26 h 29 m | Show |
Forget what happened in the Cardinals last game versus Seattle. The Seahawks will make a lot of teams look bad this season. This is a vastly underrated Arizona defense. Carson Palmer won't be pressured anything like he was versus Seattle, nor will he be facing as good a secondary this week. The Cardinals are a perfect 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5-games as a home underdog or favorite of 3.0 or less, versus an opponent coming off a win. The Falcons are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 as an away underdog or favorite of 2.5 or less.
Any home favorite of 3.0 or less that comes off back-to-back underdog ATS losses versus an opponent coming off a home favorite ATS win is 5-0 SU&ATS since the start of the 1980 season. The home team won those 5-games by an average of 14.0 points per game. |
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10-20-13 | Cincinnati Bengals v. Detroit Lions -1 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -125 | 23 h 6 m | Show |
I haven
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10-13-13 | New Orleans Saints v. New England Patriots -1 | Top | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 15 h 42 m | Show |
It
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10-13-13 | Green Bay Packers v. Baltimore Ravens +3 | Top | 19-17 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
The Ravens were in a similar situation a few weeks back versus Houston and handed the Texans their behinds. This is a Ravens franchise that
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10-06-13 | New England Patriots v. Cincinnati Bengals +1 | Top | 6-13 | Win | 100 | 21 h 10 m | Show |
The Bengals have been solid at home dating back to last season going 5-1 SU&ATS in their last 6 including 2-0 SU&ATS this season. They were caught in a flat spot a week ago as a division road favorite versus a perceived weak team after 2 stirring home wins over Green Bay and Pittsburgh. They will be focused and hungry versus the undefeated Patriots this week and will relish the role as a home underdog.
The Patriots comes off an impressive Sunday night win at Atlanta last week. However, I firmly believe this team isn |
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09-29-13 | Cincinnati Bengals v. Cleveland Browns +4 | Top | 6-17 | Win | 100 | 25 h 18 m | Show |
The Browns come off a confidence building upset win at Minnesota a week ago. The insertion of quarterback Brian Hoyer seemed to breathe new life into an offense that was anemic in the first 2 games of the season. Cincinnati comes off two big home wins versus Pittsburgh in a Monday night nationally televised game, then last week's stirring come from behind win versus Green Bay in which they overcame a 16-point 2nd half deficit. With another marquee game versus New England next week I fully expect the Bengals to be flat in this spot.
Any division home underdog of 8.0 or less that comes off a straight up win, versus an opponent coming off a home underdog of +9.5 or less straight up win in which they scored 38-points or less is 13-0 ATS since 1985. The home underdog won 12 of those 13 games outright. Any home underdog of 3.0 or more coming off an away underdog straight up win, versus an opponent coming off a home underdog straight up win is 4-0 SU&ATS since 1980. The home underdog won all 4-game straight up by an average of 6.3 points per game. Play on the Cleveland Browns plus the points as a 10* Best Bet. |
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09-15-13 | Denver Broncos v. NY Giants +5 | Top | 41-23 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 21 m | Show |
The Giants have been an absolute cash cow as an underdog with Tom Coughlin as their head coach. New York is an extremely profitable 25-13 ATS since the start of the 2007 season when cast into the role of an underdog, including 8-2 SU&ATS in the last 10. Despite turning the ball over 5 times in last week's opening game loss at Dallas the Giants still had a chance in the final minutes to pull the game out. Denver looked magnificent especially on offense in their season opening rout of Baltimore. Unfortunately for them history isn't on their side. Teams that open their season on a Thursday night with a win are 0-6 ATS all time in the following week. I wouldn't be the least bit shocked to get the outright win in this one but I will gladly take the points as an additional bonus. Play on the New York Giants as a 10* Best Bet selection.
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02-03-13 | Baltimore Ravens v. San Francisco 49ers -3.5 | Top | 34-31 | Loss | -108 | 105 h 43 m | Show |
Baltimore has had an epic run to the Super Bowl winning 3 straight playoff games including 2 in a row on the road. We mustn
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02-03-13 | Baltimore Ravens v. San Francisco 49ers OVER 47 | Top | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 104 h 52 m | Show |
Baltimore vs. San Francisco 6:30 ET
Play On: Over 47.0 The 49ers have gone over the total in their last 6 games and 9 of their last 10. The Ravens have gone over the total in 7 of their last 8 games as an underdog with a total of 48.5 and after scoring 32 points or less in their previous game. The average combined score in those 8 games was 53.9. The Ravens have allowed 398 yards or more to all 3 of this year's playoff opponents. Any team with a total of 42.5 to 49.0 that comes off 3 or more ATS wins in a row, they are playing in game 8 of the season or beyond, they scored 33 points or less in their previous game, they have a winning record, versus an opponent who allowed 26 points or less in their previous game, and they also have a winning record has seen 22 of those 27 games (81.5%) go over the total since the start of the 2007 season. Since the 1989 Super Bowl any favorite who went over the total in their previous 2 games has seen all 4 of those games go over the total with an average combined score of 53.5. Play on this game to go over the total. |
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01-20-13 | Baltimore Ravens v. New England Patriots -8.5 | Top | 28-13 | Loss | -110 | 121 h 50 m | Show |
Any playoff home favorite of 8.0 or more that's playing with revenge and has a winning percentage of .777 or less, versus an opponent with a winning percentage of less than .705 is 10-0 SU&ATS since the 1980 playoffs. The home favorite won those 10 games by an average of 17.6 points per game.
Any non-division home favorite of 3.5 to 10.0 that's playing in game 9 of the season or beyond that has a winning record on the season, versus an opponent coming off a SU underdog win by 7 points or less, and they also have a winning record on the season is 24-6 ATS since the start of the 1984 season. If the home favorite is playing with revenge this angle improves to a perfect 11-0 SU&ATS since the start of 1984 with an average margin of victory by 17.1 points per game. Play on the New England Patriots minus the points. |
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01-20-13 | San Francisco 49ers v. Atlanta Falcons +4.5 | Top | 28-24 | Win | 100 | 117 h 22 m | Show |
The Falcons are 38-8 SU in their last 46 home games. If you factor in the fact they're the home underdog, the amount of points they're receiving, and the magnitude of this contest it adds up to a ton of value. In addition Atlanta will have a huge chip on their shoulders considering in spite of their 14-3 record on the year they've not been shown the respect that usually comes along with that kind of year. In addition the general public has had a tendency to fade the Falcons all season and most especially in the latter part of the year.
Any home underdog in game 9 of the season or beyond that has a winning percentage of .750 or better, versus an opponent coming off a SU&ATS win, and they have a winning percentage of less than .777 is 6-0 SU&ATS since the start of the 1980 season. The home underdog won all 8 of those games outright by an average of 13.7 points per game. Any playoff home underdog with a winning percentage of .700 or better, versus an opponent with a winning percentage of less than .777 is 5-0 SU&ATS since 1980. The home underdog won all 5 of those games outright by an average of 15.6 points per game. Play on the Atlanta Falcons plus the points. |
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01-13-13 | Houston Texans +10 v. New England Patriots | Top | 28-41 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 52 m | Show |
Any away underdog of 3.5 to 10.0 playing in game 8 of the season or beyond, versus a team that outgained their previous opponent by 150 yards or more, and both teams in this contest average 0.4 or more yards per play is 30-7 ATS (81.1%) since the start of the 1983 season.
Any underdog of 3.5 to 10.0 that's playing with revenge from a game in which their opponent scored 28 points or more, they are playing in game 9 of the season or beyond, and they have a winning record on the season is 24-4 ATS (85.7%) since the start of the 2003 season. Play on the Houston Texans plus the points. |
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01-13-13 | Seattle Seahawks v. Atlanta Falcons OVER 45.5 | Top | 28-30 | Win | 100 | 23 h 21 m | Show |
Any team with a total of 42.5 to 49.0 that comes off 2 or more unders in a row, and they're allowing 17 or less points per game on the season has seen 27 of those 32 games (84.4%) go over the total since the start of the 2008 season.
Any team with a total of 42.5 to 49.0 that allows 4.5 yards or more per rush, and they gained 99 yards or less rushing in each of the last 2 games has seen 39 of those 54 games (72.2%) go over the total since the start of the 2008 season. |
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01-12-13 | Green Bay Packers +3 v. San Francisco 49ers | Top | 31-45 | Loss | -125 | 52 h 33 m | Show |
Green Bay @ San Francisco 8:00 ET
Play On: Green Bay +3.0 Green Bay is a perfect 10-0 SU&ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite or underdog of 6.5 or less versus opponents with a better than .600 winning percentage. The Packers have won those 10 games by an average of 12.9 points per game. This is a Green Bay team that's peaking at the right time and became very healthy at playoff time. San Francisco hasn't been as dominate late in the year as they were early on. The 49ers rely heavily on a staunch defense and that unit has been very good for the better part of the year. However over their last 3 games they allowed an average of 29.7 points and 376.0 yards per game. This will be the first career playoff start for 49ers quarterback Colin Kapernick. Contrarily the Packers Aaron Rodgers has plenty of playoff experience including a Super Bowl championship. During that Super Bowl run the Packers are able to win all 3 playoff games on the road to get to the big game. Any away underdog or favorite of 3.0 or less in game 8 of the season or beyond that's coming off a SU win by 7 points or more, and both teams in this game have a .600 to .750 winning percentage is 12-0 SU&ATS since the start of the 2003 season. Play on the Green Bay Packers plus the points. |
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01-06-13 | Seattle Seahawks v. Washington Redskins +3 | Top | 24-14 | Loss | -120 | 45 h 13 m | Show |
This is a Seattle franchise that's 1-16 SU in their last 17 road games following a SU win and versus a team with a better than .300 winning percentage. Yet the Seahawks find themselves as a road favorite in a playoff game versus a team that's reeled off 7 wins in a row. The Redskins are a perfect 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog of 4.0 or less winning by an average of 9.3 points per game.
Any home playoff team coming off 6 or more SU wins in a row, versus an opponent with a winning percentage of less than .700 is 10-0 SU since the start of the 1990 playoffs. The home team won those 10 games outright by an average of 15.4 points per game. Any playoff underdog of 6.0 or less that comes off 7 or more SU wins in a row that has a winning percentage of less than .857, they scored 38 points or less in their previous game, versus an opponent that allowed 10 points or more in their previous game is 9-0 SU&ATS since 1981. The underdog won all 9 of those games outright by an average of 11.6 points per game. Play on the Washington Redskins plus the points. |
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01-06-13 | Indianapolis Colts v. Baltimore Ravens -6.5 | Top | 9-24 | Win | 100 | 42 h 44 m | Show |
Indy enters this game having won 5 of their last 6 regular season games on the way to a shocking 11-5 record. The Ravens still won the AFC North in spite of losing 4 of their last 5 games. In spite of all that the books have deemed the Ravens a touchdown favorite. Rest assured it's not Christmas in Las Vegas and the books aren't handing out gifts. Baltimore will get a huge emotional lift with the return of veteran linebacker and inspirational leader Ray Lewis. Lewis has already indicated that he will be retiring at the end of this season. That motivation in addition to one of the better home field advantages in the NFL will pay huge dividends.
Any non-division playoff home favorite of 4.0 or more versus an opponent coming off a home underdog SU win, and has a winning percentage of better than .625 is 11-0 SU&ATS since 1984. The favorite has won those 11 games by an average of 18.9 points per game. Play on the Baltimore Ravens minus the points. |
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01-05-13 | Minnesota Vikings v. Green Bay Packers -7.5 | Top | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 25 h 50 m | Show |
Any playoff home favorite of 4.5 or more that has a winning percentage of better than .666, versus an opponent coming off a home underdog SU win is 14-0 SU&ATS since the start of the 1983 season. The favorite won those 14 games by an average of 19.3 points per game.
Any playoff home favorite of 5.5 or more that's playing with revenge versus an opponent with a winning percentage of less than .705 is 6-0 SU&ATS since 1980. The home favorite won those 6 games by an average of 15.8 points per game. Any home favorite that comes off a SU favorite loss in which they failed to cover by 7.0 or less, versus an opponent with a less than .700 winning percentage is 6-0 SU&ATS since the start of the 1980 season. The home favorite won those 6 games by an average of 19.8 points per game. Play on the Green Bay packers minus the points. |
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12-30-12 | Green Bay Packers v. Minnesota Vikings +3.5 | Top | 34-37 | Win | 100 | 20 h 5 m | Show |
Any home underdog of 6.0 or less with a winning percentage of less than .666 that's playing with revenge, and they're coming off a SU underdog win by 14 points or less is 8-0 SU&ATS since the start of the 2003 season. The home underdog won all 8 of those games outright by an average of 11.7 ppg. Play on the Minnesota Vikings plus the points.
Any home underdog of 4.0 or more with a winning percentage of .461 or better that's playing in their last home game of the season, versus an opponent that's coming off a SU&ATS win that they covered by 7.0 or more, and they have a winning percentage of better than .571 is 14-1 SU&ATS since the start of the 1988 season. Play on the Minnesota Vikings plus the points. |
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12-30-12 | Houston Texans -6.5 v. Indianapolis Colts | Top | 16-28 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 41 m | Show |
Any away favorite of 3.0 or more that's coming off a SU loss by 27 points or less versus an opponent playing in game 4 of the season or beyond, and they're coming off an away favorite ATS win is 10-0 SU&ATS since the start of the 1984 season. The away favorite has won those 10 games by an average of 18.2 ppg. Play on the Houston Texans minus the points.
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12-23-12 | Minnesota Vikings v. Houston Texans -7.5 | Top | 23-6 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 5 m | Show |
Any non-division home favorite of between 3.5 to 10.0 that's playing in game 9 of the season or beyond that scored 36 or less and gave up 7 or more in their previous game, versus an opponent with a winning record who comes off a SU underdog win in which they scored 16 or more is 29-5 ATS since the start of the 1983 season.
Any home favorite versus an opponent that's coming off BB SU underdog wins the last of which they scored 36 points or more, and they've won 18 or less of their last 32 games is 8-0 SU&ATS since the start of the 1989 season. The home favorite won those 8 games by an average of 19.5 points per game. Play on the Houston Texans minus the points. |
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12-23-12 | New Orleans Saints v. Dallas Cowboys -1 | Top | 34-31 | Loss | -125 | 18 h 55 m | Show |
Any home favorite of 9.5 or less playing in game 8 of the season or beyond that comes off a SU win, versus an opponent coming off a home favorite ATS shutout win is 16-0 SU&ATS since the start of the 1984 season. The home favorite won those 16 games by an average of 15.2 points per game.
Any home favorite or home underdog of 3.0 or less that's playing in game 4 of the season or beyond, they have a less than .666 winning percentage, they allowed 36 points or less in their previous game, versus an opponent that covered by 21 points or more in their previous game and scored 20 points or more is 19-1 SU&ATS since the start of the 2004 season. Play on the Dallas Cowboys. |
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12-23-12 | Cincinnati Bengals v. Pittsburgh Steelers -3 | Top | 13-10 | Loss | -115 | 18 h 52 m | Show |
Any division home favorite of 7.5 or less that comes off BB SU favorite losses the last of which was by 8 points or less, they have a less than .600 winning percentage, versus an opponent that won 10 or more of their last 32 games is 15-0 SU&ATS since the start of the 1985 season. The home favorite won those 15 games by an average of 13.8 ppg. Play on the Pittsburgh Steelers minus the points.
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12-17-12 | NY Jets +1 v. Tennessee Titans | Top | 10-14 | Loss | -103 | 7 h 8 m | Show |
Somehow the Jets find themselves right in the thick of the AFC Wild Card race. They do need some help over the last 2 weeks from notably opponents of the Steelers and Bengals. However one thing is certain it will all be a moot point if they don't win out. If this game was played 4 or 5 weeks ago the Jets would've been anywhere for a 3.0 to 4.0 point favorite. In spite of their struggles they are still the superior team in this contest and coupling that with the degree of urgency it adds up to a winner!
Any Monday night home favorite or underdog of 3.0 or less with a winning percentage of less than .363, they allowed 28 points or less in their previous game, versus an opponent with a losing record is 0-8 ATS since 1980. The home team is also 0-7-1 SU in those 8 games. Play on the New York Jets. |
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12-16-12 | Carolina Panthers v. San Diego Chargers UNDER 45 | Top | 31-7 | Win | 100 | 24 h 27 m | Show |
Any home team with a total between 42.5 and 49.0 coming off a road game in which both teams scored 24 points or more and their playing in game 15 of the season or before, versus an opponent with a winning percentage of less than .750, and they scored 13 points or more in their previous game has seen 33 of those 37 (89.2%) go under the total since the start of the 2004 season. Play on this game to go under the total.
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12-16-12 | Denver Broncos v. Baltimore Ravens +3 | Top | 34-17 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 29 m | Show |
The Ravens need to stop the bleeding and will be in urgent mode to do so. This is a Baltimore team that
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12-16-12 | Minnesota Vikings v. St. Louis Rams -1 | Top | 36-22 | Loss | -135 | 21 h 23 m | Show |
The Rams come in with a ton of confidence and are still alive in the NFC wild Card race. Minnesota is a paltry 5-21 SU in their last 26 road games including 1-12 in the last 13 following a SU win. Christian Ponder has steadily regressed at quarterback and has no help at the receiver position. The Rams defense will play 8 men in the box to slow down Adrian Peterson and force Ponder to beat them.
Any home favorite of 3.5 or less coming off BB SU underdog wins with the last coming by 10 points or less, they |
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12-13-12 | Cincinnati Bengals v. Philadelphia Eagles OVER 45 | Top | 34-13 | Win | 100 | 34 h 37 m | Show |
The Eagles rookie quarterback Nick Foles seems to be coming of age in his last 2 starts completing 54 of 85 pass attempts (63.5%) for 3 touchdowns and no picks. The Eagles have gone over the total in their last 4 home games this season with an average combined score of 52.3 ppg. The Bengals have been dominating defensively at home but very average on the road. In the Bengals 6 road games the average combined total score has been 48.0 ppg.
Any road team with a total of 42.5 or more that |
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12-10-12 | Houston Texans v. New England Patriots -5.5 | Top | 14-42 | Win | 100 | 6 h 11 m | Show |
The weather forecast calls for this game to be played in less than ideal conditions which will obviously favor the Patriots in that regard. There are two premier bad weather quarterbacks in the NFL one of them plays in Green Bay (Aaron Rodgers) and the other is Tom Brady of New England. This line jumped right off the board at me considering you have an 11-1 team this late in the season, as an underdog of this size, and they
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12-09-12 | Arizona Cardinals +10 v. Seattle Seahawks | Top | 0-58 | Loss | -110 | 45 h 26 m | Show |
Any road underdog of 12.5 or less off a road SU loss in which they covered the spread, they
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12-09-12 | Tennessee Titans v. Indianapolis Colts UNDER 48 | Top | 23-27 | Loss | -123 | 42 h 8 m | Show |
These two teams have seen their last 4, 7 of their last 8, and 11 of their last 13 meetings all go under the total. The Colts have gone under the total in their last 10 games versus division opponents. The Colts have been installed as a favorite just 4 times this year prior to this week and all 4 of those contests have gone under the total.
Any division home favorite with a total of 42.5-49.0 that |