Steelers @ Patriots 8:20 PM ET

Game# 477-478

Play On: Patriots -5.5 (5*)

Betting against the Patriots at home during the past 4 seasons has been a recipe for claiming bankruptcy. New England has gone an extremely profitable 26-9-3 ATS in Foxboro since 2015, and that includes an even better 12-2 ATS (83%) when they closed as a favorite of 6.5 or less. New England has also had the Steelers number in recent seasons. Specifically, since 2013, the Patriots have won 5 of the last 6 head to head meetings versus Pittsburgh, and they also went 4-1-1 ATS in those contests. Those results include New England going 3-0 at Gillette Stadiums while winning by a decisive average of 16.7 points per contest.

Counting the postseason, New England went 14-5 a season ago. Conversely, Pittsburgh went 9-7 and didn’t qualify for postseason actions. Those 2 records sets up a successful NFL season opener betting angle listed below.

Any NFL team (New England) playing in their season opener that’s a home favorite of 7.5 or less, and they won 12 or more games in the previous year, versus an opponent (Pittsburgh) that won 12 games or fewer during the previous year, resulted in those home favorites going a perfect 11-0 ATS since 2005. The average victory margin in those 11 contests was 13.1 points per game. Bet on the Patriots minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Patriots vs. Rams 6:30 PM ET

Game# 101-102

Play On: Rams +3.0 (10*)

New England has unequivocally more postseason experience let alone Super Bowl experience than the Rams do. However, I firmly believe the Rams are the more talented team on both sides of the ball, and that will trump all on Sunday. It’s also worth noting, since last season’s Super Bowl, New England has gone a dismal 0-5 SU&ATS as a favorite of 2.0 to 9.0-points when not playing at Gillette Stadium in Foxboro. New England was outscored in those 5 contests by an average of 11.2 points per game. Bet on the Rams plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Rams @ Saints 3:05 PM ET

Game#311-312

Play On: Saints -3.0 (10*)

The Rams are coming off last week’s Divisional Round 30-22 home win over Dallas. The Rams covered their closing point-spread line of -7.0.

NFL Playoff home favorites of 9.0-points or fewer (Saints) that’s facing an opponent (Rams) m coming off a playoff game in which they covered as a home favorite by 6.5-points or less, resulted in those home favorites going 11-1 ATS (91.7%) since 1988. Bet on the Saints minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Chargers @ Patriots 1:05 PM ET

Game# 305-306

Play On: Under 48.0 (10*)

The Chargers have seen 13 of their last 20 away games (65%) go under the total. They’ve also gone under in 8 of their last 11 overall which includes each of its previous 3. Additionally, they’ve allowed 19 points or fewer in 8 of their previous 13 games.

New England’s defense quietly performed extremely well during the 2nd of this season. Specifically, the Patriots allowed 17 points or fewer in 7 of their previous 9 games. Furthermore, New England went under the total during 8 of those 9 contests and that includes each of the last 3. Bet on this game to go under the total for a 10* Top Play wager.

Chargers @ Patriots 1:05 PM ET

Game# 305-306

Play On: Under 48.0 (10*)

The Chargers have seen 13 of their last 20 away games (65%) go under the total. They’ve also gone under in 8 of their last 11 overall which includes each of its previous 3. Additionally, they’ve allowed 19 points or fewer in 8 of their previous 13 games.

New England’s defense quietly performed extremely well during the 2nd of this season. Specifically, the Patriots allowed 17 points or fewer in 7 of their previous 9 games. Furthermore, New England went under the total during 8 of those 9 contests and that includes each of the last 3. Bet on this game to go under the total for a 10* Top Play wager.

Cowboys @ Rams 8:15 PM ET

Game# 303-304

Play On: Cowboys +8.5 (5*)

Despite Rams management spending an enormous amount of money on their defense, they still allowed a lofty 24.0 points per game during its regular season slate. As a matter of fact, the Rams have allowed 30 points or more in each of their last 4 home games. The Rams have also gone 1-5-2 ATS during this NFL campaign versus opponents that finished their regular season slate with a winning record.

During the past 3 seasons, Dallas has gone a perfect 7-0 ATS in away games against teams that were allowing 24.0 or more points per game. The Cowboys are also 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games as an away underdog of 3.5 or more, and they won 10 of those 19 contests straight up. Bet on Dallas plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Chargers @ Ravens 1:00 PM ET

Game# 105-106

Play On: Baltimore -2.5 (10*)

Baltimore is #2 in rushing offense and #1 in total defense in the NFL. When it comes to playoff football, that’s unequivocally a recipe for success. The Ravens have won their last 4 at home and 6 of their last 7 overall. They also dominated the Chargers in a Week 16 road win in which they held a potent Los Angeles offense to less than 200 yards. Bet on the Ravens minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Seahawks @ Cowboys 8:15 PM ET

Game# 103-104

Play On: Over 43.0 (10*)

Seattle saw their last 3 regular season games all go over the total. They also went over their total during their previous 3 road games and there were a combined 57.7 points scored per contest. The Seahawks have scored 20 points or more in 14 of 16 games this season and have allowed 24 or more during 5 of its 7 true road games. Since 2015, Dallas has gone 8-2 over at home when the total was 42.0 to 45.0. Those 10 contests averaged a combined 50.0 points scored per game. Bet on this game to go over the total for a 10* Top Play wager.

Indianapolis @ Tennessee 8:00 PM ET

Game# 321-322

Play On: Tennessee +3.5 (10*)

The uncertain status of Tennessee starting quarterback Marcus Mariota has already been factored into the current point-spread. Tennessee enters this final week of regular season action on a 4-game winning streak and with their playoff hopes on the line. Tennessee has gone an outstanding 16-3 during its previous 19 home games and that includes a perfect 7-0 SU&ATS (+10.7 PPG) when facing a fellow AFC South team. Conversely, the Colts are a dismal 4-12 in their last 16 away games which hardly bodes well for a road favorite of better than a field goal.

Any NFL regular season home underdog of 4.0 or less that’s playing after game 6 and is coming off 4 or more wins in a row, versus an opponent (Colts) coming off a win by 31 points or fewer, resulted in those home underdogs going an unblemished 14-0 ATS since 1981, and they won 13 of those contests straight up. Bet on Tennessee plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Packers @ Jets 1:00 PM ET

Game# 117-118

Play On: Over 46.0 (10*)

Green Bay has gone over the total in their last 6 games as a non-division road favorite and there were a combined 55.7 points scored per contest. As a matter of fact, since the start of the 2016 season, Green Bay has gone 12-1 over in non-division road games when there was a total of 55.5 or less.

New York has seen each of their previous 3 games go over the total. The Jets are 9-3 over in their last 12 at home and that includes 6-0 over if they were a pick or underdog of 6.5 or less. Those 6 contests averaged a combined 55.8 points scored. Bet on this game to go over the total for a 10* Top Play wager.

Buccaneers @ Ravens 1:00 ET

Game# 311-312

Play On: Baltimore -7.5 (10*)

Tampa Bay has gone a dismal 2-14 in their last 16 away games and that includes 1-7-2 ATS if they were an underdog of 9.5-points or fewer. As a matter of fact, after winning their season opener at New Orleans, Tampa lost their next 5 on the road and allowed a enormous 39.8 points per game while doing so.

Baltimore has maintained a strong home field advantage since John Harbaugh has taken over the head coaching duties. Under the guidance of Harbaugh, Baltimore is a perfect 7-0 ATS as a non-division home favorite of 5.5 to 10.5 points when facing an opponent coming off a loss in their previous game. They won those 7 contests by a substantial 20.6 points per game. Baltimore’s playoff hopes will be hanging in the balance during the final 3 weeks of regular season action. They can ill afford to lose a game like this against a Tampa team that struggles on the road and comes in with a lousy 5-8 record. Bet on Baltimore minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Patriots @ Dolphins 1:00 PM ET

Game# 117-118

Play On: Dolphins +9.0 (10*)

You may be very surprised to know that Miami is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games against New England, and that includes winning 4 of the last 5 meetings straight up. Miami has been awful on the road this season but has fared extremely well at home. Miami is 5-1 SU&ATS at Hard Rock Stadium in 2018. Conversely, New England is a perfect 6-0 at home but a beatable 3-3 on the road. Bet on Miami for a 10* Top Play wager.

Minnesota @ New England 4:25 PM ET

Game# 375-376

Play On: Minnesota +5.5 (10*)

New England is coming off a 27-13 win over the Jets in a game they covered as a 13.0-point road favorite.

Minnesota is coming off a 24-17 win over Green Bay in a game they covered as a home favorite. That win improved their season record to 6-4-1 (.600). Minnesota has gone an extremely profitable 35-9 ATS (79.5%) in their last 44 non-division games and all under current head coach Mike Zimmer.

Any regular season NFL away underdog of 10.0-points or fewer with a win percentage of .600 or better, and is playing after game 8 of their schedule, and is coming off a home favorite ATS win, versus an opponent coming off an away favorite ATS win in which they covered by 25.0 or less and allowed 17 points or fewer, resulted in those away underdogs going 12-1 ATS since 1984. Those road underdogs also won 11 of those 13 games straight up. Bet on Minnesota plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Tennessee @ Houston 8:15 ET

Game# 273-274

Play On: Tennessee +4.0 (10*)

After staring the season 0-3, Houston has reeled off 7 straight wins and will be seeking a franchise record 8-game winning streaks tonight. Houston is coming off a narrow 23-21 win at Washington in their previous game but failed to cover as a 3.0-point favorite. Conversely, Tennessee is coming off an embarrassing 38-10 loss at Indianapolis last week which dropped their record to 5-5. Yet, the sportsbooks have Tennessee currently listed as just a 3.5 or 4.0-point underdog for tonight’s game. It’s never that easy when it comes to sports betting and that’s especially so as it applies to NFL wagering.

Any Monday night NFL road team with a point-spread of +4.5 to -4.5, versus an opponent (Houston) coming off a non-division ATS loss and they possess a win percentage of .300 or better, resulted in those road teams going 16-0 SU&ATS since 2009. The road teams won those 16 contests by an average of 12.6 points per game. Bet on Tennessee plus the points for a 10* wager.

Seahawks @ Panthers 1:00 PM ET

Game# 263-264

Play On: Panthers -3.0 (10*)

Carolina has gone 28-6 during its last 34 home games and that includes a current 10-game win streak in Charlotte. On a negative note, the Panthers are coming off road losses in each of their previous 2 games. Conversely, Seattle is coming off a 27-24 home win over Green Bay. That victory evened the Seahawks season record at 5-5.

Any non-division home favorite of 2.0 to 5.0-points that’s coming off road losses in each of their previous 2 games played, versus an opponent who’s coming off a win and that possesses a win percentage of .500 or better, resulted in those home favorites going 11-0 ATS since 2004. The average margin of victory was 14.2 points per game. Bet on the Panthers minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Redskins @ Cowboys 4:30 ET

Game# 107-108

Play On: Redskins +7.5 (10*)

Dallas is coming off a thrilling 22-19 road win at Atlanta while doing so as a 3.0-point underdog. That win evened the Cowboys record at 5-5 (.500). Dallas is 0-3 ATS in its last 3 games as a favorite this season, and they lost 2 of those contests straight up.

The Redskins are coming off a 23-21 home loss to Houston. Although they covered that contest as a 3.0-point underdog. That defeat dropped their season record to 6-4 which is still good for 1st place in the NFC East standings. Adding insult to injury with no pun intended, they lost their starting quarterback Alex Smith for the year in that contest after he suffered a gruesome leg injury. Colt McCoy will assume the starting quarterback and he’s proven to be very capable when given the opportunity which included nearly rallying the Redskins to a win in that loss against Houston. By the way, Washington is 6-1 ATS as an underdog this season and that includes 3-0 SU&ATS (+12.7 PPG) if they’re coming off a loss in their previous game.

Chiefs @ Rams 8:15 PM ET

Game# 473-474

Play On: Rams -3.0 (5*)

After running several NFL handicapping algorithms on this game, it was clear that games played in this precise situation clearing favorited the home favorite. Additionally, according to one major offshore sportsbook, 72% of point-spread betting ticket have gone the way of the underdog Chiefs. Since I’m not a big fan of siding with public betting, it’s just added that much more sugar to my spice.

Let’s start with all the betting parameters I used for the 3 extremely successful betting angles illustrated below. For starters, both teams enter this game with identical 9-1 (.900) records. The Rams suffered their only loss 2 weeks ago during a 45-35 setback at New Orleans. Kansas City is coming off last Sunday’s 26-14 home win over Arizona.

Any NFL home favorite (Rams) of 5.0-points or less that’s playing after game 9 of their season, and own a win percentage of .900 or better, versus an opponent (Chiefs) with a winning record, resulted in those home favorites going 8-0 ATS since 1990. The average victory margin in those 8 contests was 16.4 points per game.

Any home favorite (Rams) that’s won 3 of its last 4 games and is facing an opponent (Chiefs) that’s won 8 or more of its previous 10 contests, resulted in those home favorites going 25-4 ATS (86.2%) since 2009.

Any Monday night home favorite (Rams) that’s playing after game 9 of the season with a win percentage of .750 or better, versus an opponent (Chiefs) coming off a win and has a win percentage of .643 or better, resulted in those home favorites going 10-0 ATS since 1980. The average margin of victory in those 10 contests was 22.2 points per game. Bet on the Rams minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Houston @ Washington 1:00 PM ET

Game# 463-464

Play On: Washington +3.0 (10*)

Houston enters this week on a red-hot 6-game winning streak. However, none of those 6 opponents currently have a winning record. It will get much tougher on the road this Sunday against a 6-3 Redskins team.

Speaking of the Redskins, they have plenty of successful experiences as a home underdog since 2015. Excluding season openers, Washington is 10-1 SU&ATS in their last 11 games as a home underdog, and that includes 6-0 SU&ATS if they were facing a non-division opponent. Bet on Washington plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Seattle @ LA Rams 4:25 PM ET

Game# 271-272

Play On: LA Rams -9.0 (10*)

The worst thing that happened for Seattle regarding this matchup is the Rams suffering their first loss of the season last Sunday at New Orleans. Since 10/15/2017, the Rams are 3-0 SU&ATS in regular season games following a loss in their previous contest and they won by an average of 17.0 points per game. They’re also 6-0 straight up and 5-1 ATS during their previous 6 games as a home favorite and their winning margin was 14.5 points per contest. The Rams have outscored Seattle 75-38 during the last 2 times these division rivals have met while winning both of those contests. The Seahawks defense had no answer for stopping Todd Gurley in those 2 losses to their division rival. Gurley rushed for a combined 229 and scored 7 touchdowns in those Rams wins. I look for more of the same on Sunday. Take the Rams minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

LA Rams @ New Orleans 4:25 PM ET

Game# 469-470

Play On: New Orleans +2.5 (5*)

New Orleans is coming off an impressive 30-20 win at Minnesota last Sunday night. That marked their 6th straight win following a loss to Tampa Bay in their season opener. The Saints are also a very good 21-11 during their previous 32 games overall. The Rams remained unbeaten following last week’s 29-27 home win over Green Bay.

Any home team (New Orleans) that’s coming off a road win by 10 points or more, and they have a win percentage of .600 or better, and they’ve won 24 game or fewer of their previous 32 contests. versus an opponent (LA Rams) who’s coming off a home game in which they scored and allowed 24 points or more, resulted in those home teams going 70-9 (88.6%) straight up since 1983. Considering the home team is an underdog in this spot, the straight up results in this betting angle take on an enormous amount more significance. Bet on New Orleans plus the points for a 5* wager.

Green Bay @ LA Rams 4:25 PM ET

Game# 271-272

Play On: LA Rams -8.5 (10*)

This is largest underdog role that Aaron Rogers has seen since he’s been Green Bay’s starting quarterback. Hence, the public has been hammering the sportsbooks with Packers bets like they’re stealing money from an open safe. The Packers enter this week with a mediocre 3-2-1 record and they’ve gone just 14-18 during their last 32 away games. The Rams are a perfect 7-0 thus far and are coming off last Sunday’s 39-10 win at San Francisco while easily covering as a 9.0-point favorite.

Any undefeated NFL non-division home favorite (LA Rams) that’s playing in games 2 through 8 of their season, and they’re coming off an away favorite ATS win in which they won straight up by 13 points or more, versus an opponent (Green Bay) with at least 1 loss, and they’ve won 14 or less of its last 32 away games, resulted in those home favorites going 13-0 ATS since 1980. The average margin of victory in those 13 contests came by a decisive margin of 21.0 points per game. Bet on the LA Rams minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

LA Rams @ San Francisco 4:25 PM ET

Game# 473-474

Play On: San Francisco +9.5 (10*)

San Francisco gave Green Bay all they can handle this past Monday night at Lambeau Field before losing 33-30 on a last second field goal. The 49ers easily covered that contest as a sizable 9.0-point road underdog.

The Rams came away with an uninspiring 23-20 road win at Denver last week and they failed to cover as a 7.0-point road favorite for a second consecutive week. In any event, they improved their season record to a perfect 6-0. Since 1983, NFL teams playing in their 3rd consecutive road game they gone just 81-152 straight up. If those teams are coming off a straight up win they’ve gone 3-9 straight up and 2-10 ATS since 2014.

Any NFL home underdog of 10.0-points or fewer that scored 19 points or fewer in their previous game, and they’re facing an undefeated opponent playing in Game 7 of their season, and that opponent scored 36 points or less in their previous outing, resulted in those home underdogs going 9-0 SU&ATS since 1981. Bet on San Francisco plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Chiefs @ Patriots 8:20 PM ET

Game# 275-276

Play On: Patriots -3.0 (10*)

New England has historically been a huge money maker as a home favorite since Bill Belichick took over as head coach. That’s been especially evident during recent years. Since the 2013 season began, New England has gone an extremely profitable 35-13 ATS (73%) as a home favorite. Moreover, during that identical time frame, the Patriots are a perfect 10-0 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5-points or fewer when facing a non-division opponent, and they won by 14.6 points per contest. The current total on Sunday’s game against the Chiefs is 59.5, and that’s significant. Since 11/18/2012, New England is 14-0 SU&ATS at home when there’s a total of 50.5 or greater, and they won by an enormous 20.7 points per game.

The Chiefs are coming off last Sunday’s 30-14 win over Jacksonville and they covered as a 3.5-point home favorite. That victory improved Kansas City to a perfect 5-0 in 2018. New England is coming off a 38-24 home win over Indianapolis and they covered as a sizable 10.0-point favorite. This previously mentioned data sets up a rare but unblemished NFL betting angle which is displayed below.

Any home favorite of 4.5-points or fewer (Patriots) that’s coming off a home favorite ATS win in which they covered by 21.0-points or less, and they’re facing an undefeated opponent (Chiefs) who’s coming off a home favorite ATS win, resulted in those home favorites going 9-0 SU&ATS since 1983. Those 9 home favorites won by an average of 13.1 points per game. Bet on the Patriots minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Giants @ Panthers 1:00 PM ET

Game# 457-458

Play On: Panthers -6.0 (10*)

Carolina will enter this game well rested after enjoying a bye week. The last time the Panthers took the field they defeated Cincinnati 31-21 and cover as a 3.0-point home favorite. The Giants are coming off a 33-18 home loss to New Orleans.

Any NFL regular season home favorite (Panthers) that’s coming off a bye week, and their previous game was a home favorite ATS win, versus an opponent (Giants) who’s coming off a straight up favorite loss by 10 points or more, resulted in those home favorites going 9-0 ATS. The 9 home favorites won by a substantial average of 20.3 points per game. Bet on the Carolina Panthers minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Miami @ New England 1:00 PM ET

Game# 251-252

Play On: New England -6.5 (10*)

We have a 1-2 team in New England who’s favorite against the 3-0 Miami Dolphins. An impulse reaction would lead you to taking the underdog in this spot just based on common sense alone. However, solely relying on common sense when it comes to NFL handicapping is the shortest route to betting poverty.

New England has gone a perfect 7-0 SU&ATS during their last at home against Miami, and they won those contests by an average of 21.6 points per game. After beginning the season with a home win over Houston, New England preceded to lose 2 straight road games to Jacksonville and Detroit. Since 2011, New England is 4-0 SU&ATS following back to back losses and won by a decisive margin of 16.7 points per game. The Patriots are also 7-0 SU&ATS (+18.8 ppg) in their last 7 as a home favorite when facing an opponent who’s won 3 or more games in a row.

Miami is 0-6 SU&ATS since 2015 as an away underdog of 6.0 to 13.0-points and when going up against an opponent who’s recorded at least 1 win on the season. Bet on New England minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

New England @ Detroit 8:20 PM ET

Game# 487-488

Play On: Under 54.0 (10*)

New England is coming off a 31-20 loss at Jacksonville and did so as a 1.5-point favorite. Since 2014, New England has gone under the total on the road following a road loss, and those games averaged a combined 38.8 points scored per game. Additionally, since 2016, New England has gone 5-1 under when there’s a total of 49.5 or greater.

Detroit is coming off last Sunday’s 30-27 loss at San Francisco. The combination of this data leads us to an extremely profitable NFL totals betting angle which is displayed below. Detroit is 5-0 under in their last 5 at home when there’s of 48.0 or greater, and they’re coming off a road loss in which it allowed 38 points or fewer. Those 5 contests averaged a combined 39.6 points scored per game.

Any team (New England) playing before Game 14 of their season with a total of 35.0 or greater, coming off an away double-digit loss as a favorite of 1.5-points or more, versus an opponent (Detroit) coming off an away loss in which they allowed 30 points or less, resulted in those games going 32-5 (86.5%) under the total since 1984. Bet on this game to go under the total for a 10* Top Play wager.

Miami @ NY Jets 1:00 PM ET

Game# 273-274

Play On: Jets -2.5 (10*)

Miami has gone a dismal 1-12 ATS in their last 13 games as a division away underdog. The Dolphins christened their 2018 regular season campaign with a 27-20 win over Tennessee.

The Jets are coming off an extremely impressive 48-17 road win at Detroit and did so as a sizable 7.0-point underdog. You may be surprised to know that the Jets are 6-1 during its previous 7 home openers.

Any home favorite of 5.5-points or less that’s coming off a non-division away underdog straight up win in which they scored 41 points or more and allowed 10 or greater, and they’re facing an opponent who scored 21 points or more during its previous contests, resulted in those home favorites going 8-0 SU&ATS since 1980. The average margin of victory in those contests was 13.5 points per game. Bet on the Jets minus the points as a 10* Top Play wager.

Chiefs @ Chargers 4:05 PM ET

Game# 469-470

Play On: Chargers -3.0 (10*)

Talk about big time revenge, the Chargers have lost 8 straight times to Kansas City. The Chargers will look to build on the momentum of going 9-3 during their final 3 games last season, and that included a perfect 5-0 in its last 5 at home. Meanwhile, Kansas City ended last season by going a dismal 1-4 SU&ATS in their last 5 away games.

Any home favorite of 3.0 or less that won 9 regular season games of more during the previous season resulted in those teams going 15-0 SU&ATS since 1987. The average victory margin in those 15 contests came by a decisive average of 12.4 points per game. Bet on the Chargers minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Philadelphia vs. New England 6:30 PM ET

Game# 101-102

Play On: Philadelphia +4.5 (10*)

New England defeated Jacksonville 24-20 in the AFC Championship Game but failed to cover as a 7.5-point favorite. Since 2002, Super Bowl teams coming off a game in which they failed to cover as a favorite have gone 0-4 SU&ATS.

The Eagles took the unusual route of entering this Super Bowl after winning each of their last postseason contests as an underdog. Since 2002, any Super Bowl team that’s coming off a straight up underdog win has gone 9-0 ATS and won straight up on 7 of those occasions. If those teams were a favorite or underdog of less than 6.0 points they were 5-0 SU&ATS and won by 10.8 points per game.

Turnovers will play a huge part in winning Super Bowl LII. Philadelphia is averaging just 1.23 turnovers per game this season. Meanwhile, New England has forced just 18 turnovers in 18 games this season. As a matter of fact, the Patriots have not forced a turnover in their previous 4 games. Any team (Philadelphia) playing after Game 8 of their season, and they average 1.25 or fewer turnovers committed per game, and they’re facing an opponent (New England) who averages forcing 1.25 or fewer turnovers per game, resulted in those teams going 60-15 (80%) straight up since 2008. Since this straight up betting angle sides with the underdog on Sunday, there’s a ton of betting value to be had on the Eagles. Bet on Philadelphia plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Minnesota @ Philadelphia 6:40 PM ET

Game# 313-314

Play On: Philadelphia +3.5 (10*)

For starters, this is an Eagles team that’s 8-1 at home this season, and their only defeat came against Dallas in a meaningless Week 17 regular season game. They were also a 2.5-point home underdog during last Sunday’s 15-10 Divisional Round win over the defending NFC champion Atlanta Falcons.

Counting last week’s playoff game, Philadelphia is 14-3 (.823) this season. Since 1980, NFL playoff home underdogs have gone an extremely profitable 27-13 ATS (67.5%). If those postseason home underdogs had a win percentage of .750 or better, they improved to 9-2 ATS (81.8%) and won straight up on 8 of those occasions.

Minnesota is also an identical 14-3 (.823) this season. Since 1985, any NFL home underdog of 2.0-points or more that’s playing after Game 5 of their season, possessing a win percentage of .750 or better, versus an opponent with a win percentage of .750 or better, resulted in those home underdogs going 8-0 SU&ATS. The average margin of victory in those 8 contests was 13.5 points per game. Bet on Philadelphia plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Jacksonville @ New England 3:05 PM ET

Game# 311-312

Play On: Under 46.5 (10*)

Despite the Jaguars defense looking less than impressive during last week’s 45-42 Divisional Round win at Pittsburgh, they’re still a force to be reckoned with. Jacksonville has allowed 10 points or less in 9 of 18 games this season, and they’re at or near the top of every defensive category.

New England’s explosive offense led by future Hall of Fame quarterback Tom Brady gets a plethora of attention and rightfully so. Nevertheless, the Patriots defense has allowed 17 points or less in 11 of their last 13 games played, and that includes each of it previous 5 at home.

Any road team with a total of 42.5 to 49.0, coming off a road win in which they scored and allowed 31 points or more, resulted in those road teams going 31-5 (86.1%) under the total since 1985. Bet on this game to go under the total for a 10* Top Play wager.

New Orleans @ Minnesota 4:40 PM ET

Game# 305-306

Play On: Minnesota -4.0 (10*)

New Orleans is 8-1 at home this season but a mediocre 4-4 on the road. As a matter of fact, the Saints are a dismal 0-3 SU&ATS in its last 3 away games. Ironically, New Orleans opened the season at Minnesota, and lost that contest 29-19 in a game wasn’t nearly as close as the final score indicates. New Orleans was outgained by Minnesota in that game by a decisive margin of 470-344.

Since Mike Zimmer has taken over the Minnesota Vikings head coaching duties in 2014, Minnesota is 14-1 ATS as a non-division home favorite. Considering the sample size and continuity pertaining to this precise situation, it’s a team betting trend that I certainly can’t ignore. Additionally, we can’t dismiss how dominating the Vikings defense has been this season, and especially so at home. Minnesota has allowed a paltry 12.5 points and 248.5 yards per game in their 8 home contests this season. Furthermore, the Vikings have given up 10 points or less in 5 of its last 7 games, and that includes in each of their previous 3 outings. Bet on Minnesota minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Atlanta @ Philadelphia 4:35 PM ET

Game# 301-302

Play On: Philadelphia +3.0 (10*)

Granted there’s significant drop off from going with Nick Foles as opposed to Carson Wentz at quarterback. However, Foles is experienced enough to play within himself and not try to do too much. He’s also confident in knowing that this is an Eagles defense which has allowed 13.4 points and 321 yards per game at home this season. Philadelphia was a stellar 7-1 at home this season, and their only defeat came in their meaningless regular season finale to Dallas. The Eagles used primarily backups in that 6-0 loss to ensure it starters could avoid injury.

Besides all that I’ve already pointed out, home playoff teams in this precise scenario have won at an extremely high rate over the past 26 years. Any playoff home team (Philadelphia) playing that had a bye the week before, versus an opponent (Atlanta) coming off a playoff win, and they possess a win percentage of less than .705 (Atlanta .647), resulted in those home teams going 43-7 (86%) straight up since 1992. Considering the home team is an underdog in this instance, it takes on added betting value. Bet on Philadelphia plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Carolina @ New Orleans 4:35 PM ET

Game# 107-108

Play On: Carolina +7.0 (5*)

New Orleans has already defeated Carolina twice this season. It’s extremely difficult to be a very good football team 3 times in a season. Make no mistake, the 11-5 Panthers are a very good football team. If not for losing on the road to the defending NFC champion Atlanta Falcons last week, it would be Carolina hosting this playoff contest on Sunday and not New Orleans. New Orleans is very lucky that didn’t transpire after losing to a then 4-11 Tampa Bay team last Sunday. After going on a torrid 8-game win streak, New Orleans went just 3-3 during its last 6 games. At the very least, I like Carolina to take this game right down to the wire, and I wouldn’t be shocked at all to see an outright upset. Bet on Carolina plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Atlanta @ LA Rams 8:15 ET

Game# 103-104

Play On: Under 48.5 (5*)

Atlanta enters this postseason after seeing each of their last 5 regular season games go under the total. As a matter of fact, during the past 3 seasons Atlanta is 19-6 under following an under in their previous game, and that includes 11-1 under if there’s a total of 46.5 to 53.5. The Falcons defense has flown under the radar this season with no pun intended. Atlanta has allowed just 19.6 points and 318.0 yards per game during its regular season slate. This Falcons offense is far from the offensive juggernaut we saw a season ago. Much can be attributed to the loss of last season’s offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan who accepted the head coaching job in San Francisco.

The Rams have been a dynamic offensive team this season. However, they have very little playoff experience on their roster, and this will be the Rams franchise first postseason appearance since 2005. This is an extremely talented Rams defense, and they’re masterminded by one of the best coordinators in football in Wade Phillips.

Atlanta concluded its regular season last Sunday with a 22-10 home win over division rival Carolina. That victory improved their final regular season record to 10-6 (.625). They will be facing a Rams team that went 11-5 (.687). Any road team (Atlanta) playing in a playoff game that coming off a division home win, and they possess a win percentage of .600 to .750, versus an opponent (LA Rams) with a win percentage of .687 or worse, resulted in those postseason games going 12-0 under the total since 2008. There was a combined average of 37.1 points scored per game during those 12 contests. Bet on this game to go under the total for a 10* Top Play wager.

Buffalo @ Miami 4:25 PM ET

Game# 305-306

Play On: Buffalo -2.0 (10*)

Buffalo is still alive for an AFC Wild Card berth. First and foremost, the Bills must win, or they’ll be eliminated from any postseason possibilities. Buffalo starting quarterback Tyron Taylor has enjoyed much success in his 5 starts against Miami since 2015. Taylor completed 65% of his passes for 1232 yards and 9 touchdowns while throwing 0 interceptions. Taylor also ran for 193 yards and 2 touchdowns in those outings. Buffalo went 3-2 in those games, and their only 2 losses came by just 3 points each. During Taylor’s 14 starts this season, Buffalo turned the ball over just 10 times.

Miami quarterback Jay Cutler had a miserable day against Buffalo just 2 weeks ago. Cutler was intercepted 3 times during that 24-16 loss and looked totally disinterested and frustrated for most of the game. Miami has an awful -13 turnover margin this season, and they’ll be facing a Bills team which is +8 in that category.

Don’t be surprised if you don’t see Dolphins backup quarterback at some point in this game. Fales has been taking a high volume of first team reps in practice this week. I’m going with the team that will be playing with a sense of urgency. Bet on Buffalo minus the small number for a 10* Top Play wager.

Rams @ Titans 1:00 PM ET

Game# 123-124

Play On: Titans +7.0 (10*)

The Rams are coming off a 42-7 blowout win at Seattle that put them in full control of the NFC West. That victory improved their season record to 10-4 (.714). The Rams start running back Todd Gurley has been on fire. However, he’ll be facing a Titans defense which allows just 87.2 yards rushing per game. Only Philadelphia and Minnesota have been better at stopping the run this season.

Tennessee is coming off damaging road losses against San Francisco and Arizona. Despite those defeats, the Titans 8-6 (.571) record is still good enough to hold onto one of the AFC wild card spots. The Titans return home where they’ve gone 9-1 in their last 10 games, and that includes winning its previous 5 played in Nashville. Regardless of the quality of the opponent, that type of success at home couple with being a touchdown underdog creates substantial betting value.

Any home team playing after Game 9 of the season, coming off road losses in each of their previous 2 games, and they own a winning record, versus an opponent coming off a win, and they have a win percentage of .444 to .714, resulted in those home teams going 20-1 ATS (95.2%) since 1983. Those home teams also won 18 of those 21 contests straight up. Bet on the Titans plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Rams @ Seahawks 4:05 PM ET

Game# 323-324

Play On: Seattle -1.0 (10*)

Whoever wins this contest will be in control of their own destiny in terms of being the AFC West Division winner. One thing is for sure, Seattle has been in a plethora of critical late season games during recent years. Meanwhile, the Rams roster has very little experience in that regard.

It’s rare that we’ve seen the Seahawks as such a small home favorite over the past 6 seasons. A straight up win by Seattle on Sunday gives you an extremely high probability of covering. Keep this in mind as well, since 2012 the Seahawks are a superb 43-8 (.843) at Century Link Field in Seattle. The Seahawks are coming off last Sunday’s 30-24 loss at Jacksonville and that’s pertinent when handicapping this game. After all, the Seahawks are an unscathed 12-0 in their last 12 games following a loss. Bet on Seattle for a 10* Top Play wager.

Chargers @ Chiefs 8:25 PM ET

Game# 305-306

Play On: Chargers (10*)

The Chargers are playing excellent football right now, and should be commended since bouncing back from an 0-4 start to get where they are right now. It seemed unfathomable in October to ponder the Chargers would be playing a game in Week 15 that with a win could give them sole possession of first place. However, that will be exactly the case come Saturday night in Kansas City. The Chargers have won 4 straight and did so by a decisive average of 19.5 points per game. The Chargers are 7-6 heading into this week’s action. Nevertheless, keep in mind, 4 of their 6 losses have come by 3 points or less.

Meanwhile, after jumping out to a 5-1 start, the Chiefs have lost 6 of their last 8 games. Kansas City won the first meeting against the Chargers 24-10.

Any road pick/favorite of 6.0 or less, possessing a win percentage of .510 to .600, and their playing after Game 8 of the season, resulted in those road teams going 9-0 SU&ATS since 1999. The average margin of victory in those 9 contests was 12.0 points per game. Bet on the Chargers for a 10* Top Play wager.

Minnesota @ Carolina 1:00 PM ET

Game# 115-116

Play On: Carolina +3.0 (10*)

Minnesota is coming off a 14-9 win at Atlanta and they did so as a 2.0-point underdog. The win improved the Vikings record to 10-2 (.833).

Carolina is coming off last Sunday’s 31-21 road loss at New Orleans. That defeat dropped their season record to 8-4 (.666). Since 2013, Carolina is a perfect 7-0 ATS at home following a loss, and when facing non-division opponents.

Any home team (Carolina) during regular season action with a win percentage of .666 or better, playing after Game 8 of the season, and they allowed 21 points or more in their previous game, versus an opponent coming off a straight up underdog win by 3 points or more in which they scored 14 or more, and they (Minnesota) possess a win percentage of .200 or better, resulted in those home teams going 42-0 straight up since 1981. Since this NFL straight up betting angle supports the home underdog, it takes on an enormous amount of more value. Bet on Carolina plus the points as a 10* Top Play underdog.

Minnesota @ Atlanta 1:00 PM ET

Game# 355-356

Play On: Atlanta -2.5 (10*)

The defending NFC champion Atlanta Falcons are showing signs of coming to life, and are beginning to resemble the team we witnessed a season ago. Atlanta is coming off a 34-20 home win over Tampa Bay, and they covered as a large 10.0-point favorite.

Minnesota enters this week with an excellent 9-2 (.818) record. The Vikings won their last game 30-23 at Detroit on Thanksgiving Day, and covered as a 2.5-point favorite.

Any home favorite of 2.5 to 6.0-points, coming off a home favorite ATS win in which they covered by 4.0-points or more, versus an opponent (Minnesota) coming off an away favorite ATS win in which they covered by 17.0-points or less, and they (Vikings) have a win percentage of .400 or better, resulted in those home favorites going 10-0 ATS since 1980. The average margin of victory in those 10 contests was 12.9 points per game. Bet on Atlanta minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Seattle @ San Francisco 4:05 PM ET

Game# 265-266

Play On: San Francisco +7.0 (10*)

The 49ers are coming off their bye week, and it was preceded by 31-21 home win over the Giants. It marked the first victory of the season for San Francisco. However, the 49ers have been more competitive than its 1-9 record may indicate. They’ve lost 5 games this season by 3 points or less. One of those narrow defeats came at Seattle when they fell to the Seahawks 12-9.

Seattle is coming off a tough 34-31 home loss to Atlanta last Monday night. The Seahawks are now 6-4, and their defensive secondary has been ravaged by injuries.

Any regular season division home underdog of 5.5 to 10.5 points (49ers) that’s coming off its bye week, possessing a win percentage of .400 or worse, and they’re playing with revenge, resulted in those home underdogs going 17-0 ATS since 1987. The underdog also won 8 of those 17 games straight up. Bet on San Francisco plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

LA Chargers @ Dallas 4:30 PM ET

Game# 109-110

Play On: LA Chargers (10*)

Dallas is coming off an embarrassing 37-9 home loss this past Sunday night to their division rival the Philadelphia Eagles. The Cowboys are now 0-2 SU&ATS without their suspended star running back Ezekiel Elliott and were outscored by a combined 64-16. Since the start of the 2013 season, Dallas is 0-4 SU&ATS at home following a loss by 14 points or more.

The Chargers jumped out to a 37-7 halftime lead last Sunday at Buffalo on their way to a 54-24 blowout win. That win improved their record to 4-6 and moved them within 1.0 game of the final AFC wild card spot. The Chargers are much better than their record may indicate. They’ve suffered 4 of those 6 defeats by 3 points or less, and can very easily could be 8-2 at this juncture.

Any team (Chargers) that lead at the half by 14 points or more in their previous game, and is facing an opponent (Cowboys) who allowed 35 points or more in their previous game, resulted in those teams going 25-3 (89.3%) straight up since 2013. Bet on the Los Angeles Chargers for a 10* Top Play wager.

LA Rams @ Minnesota 1:00 PM ET

Game# 459-460

Play On: Minnesota -2.5 (10*)

The Vikings have been extremely good at home during recent seasons. Specifically, the Vikings are 18-6 SU&ATS in their last 24 regular season home games. During that exact time frame, the Vikings are a perfect 9-0 SU&ATS as a regular season non-division home favorite of 4.5 or less, and they won by an average of 10.8 points per game.

The Rams have won each of their previous 3 games while covering as a favorite on all those occasions.

Any home favorite of 4.0 or less that possesses a win percentage of better than .666, and they’re facing an opponent coming off 3 straight covers as a favorite, resulted in those home favorites going 10-0 SU&ATS since 2001. The average victory margin in those 10 contests came by a decisive 15.3 points per game. Bet on Minnesota minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Dallas @ Atlanta 4:25 PM ET

Game# 269-270

Play On: Atlanta -3.0 (10*)

Atlanta is coming off 2 straight games in which they failed to cover as an away favorite. The Falcons lost 20-17 last Sunday at Carolina. Surprisingly, the defending NFC champions enter the 2nd half of their season with just a 4-4 record. It’s about that time in which they go on a winning run and resemble the team we saw a season ago.

Any home favorite of 13.5-points or less (Atlanta) that’s failed to cover as an away favorite in each of their previous 2 contests, and they’re coming off a straight up loss by 9 points or less in its last game, and they possess a win percentage of .750 or less, resulted in those home favorites going 14-0 SU&ATS since 1980. The average margin of victory in those 14 contests came by a decisive 17.6 points per game. Bet on Atlanta minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Kansas City @ Dallas 4:25 PM ET

Game# 469-470

Play On: Dallas -2.0 (10*)

Dallas has scored 30 points or more in each of their previous 4 games. The Cowboys have won 2 straight and now find themselves with a 4-3 record.

Kansas City is coming off last Monday night’s 29-19 win over Denver. That victory improved their season record to 6-2 (.750).

Any home team possessing a win percentage of .500 or better, coming off 4 straight games in which they scored 30 points or more on each occasion, versus a non-division opponent with a win percentage of .800 or less that scored 33 points or less in their previous game, resulted in those home teams going 26-0 straight up since 1993. The straight up numbers take on added significance due to the current point-spread on this contest. Bet on Dallas minus the small number for a 10* Top Play wager.

Denver @ Kansas City 8:30 PM ET

Game# 273-274

Play On: Denver +7.5 (10*)

Denver is coming off a 21-0 road loss against the Chargers. That defeated dropped the Broncos season record to 3-3 (.500). Kansas City is coming off an excruciating 31-30 loss at Oakland in their previous game. The Chiefs enter this week with a 5-2 (.714) record.

Any away underdog of 10.5-points or less playing before Game 9 of the season, possessing a win percentage of .538 or less, and they’re coming off an away loss by 21 points or more, versus an opponent coming off an away loss, and they have a win percentage of less than .750, resulted in those away underdogs going 18-0 ATS since 1986. The underdogs also won 15 of those 18 games straight up. Bet on Denver plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh 4:25 PM ET

Game# 455-456

Play On: Pittsburgh -5.0 (10*)

Cincinnati started the season 0-3 and has since rebounded to win 2 games in a row. The Steelers will enter this AFC North showdown with a season record of 4-2, and have also gone 22-10 in their previous 32 games played.

Any home favorite of 4.0 to 7.0-points with a win percentage of .666 or better, and they’ve won 17 or more of their previous 32 games played, versus an opponent coming off 2 or more straight up wins in a row, and they possess a win percentage of .454 or less, resulted in those home favorites going 15-0 ATS since 1980. The average margin of victory in those 15 contests came by 16.6 points per game. Bet on Pittsburgh -7.0 for a 10* Top Play.

Buccaneers @ Cardinals 4:05 PM ET

Game# 267-268

Play On: Cardinals +2.0 (10*)

Since 2013, the Cardinals are 7-0 SU&ATS at home when they’re +2.5 to -2.5. Since 2014, Arizona is 19-7-1 straight up at home, and that includes 11-0-1 during Games 5 through 13 of the season.

Sunday will mark the Bucs 34th road game since 2013, and it’s only the 2nd time they will be installed as a favorite. Saying they’re entering unchartered waters would be a vast understatement. The Bucs are 0-2 SU&ATS in its first 2 games on the road this season.

The Cardinals are coming off a humiliating 37-7 road loss at Philadelphia. The defeat dropped their season record to 2-3 (.400). Meanwhile, Tampa Bay is coming off a 19-14 Thursday night home loss to New England, and they failed to cover as a 3.5-point underdog. The combination of this data leads us to a rare but perfect NFL ATS betting angle.

Any home team (Cardinals) with a win percentage of .333 or better that’s facing a non-division opponent (Buccaneers), and that opponent is coming off a Thursday home underdog ATS loss in which they failed to cover by 9.0 points or less, resulted in those home teams going 10-0 SU&ATS since 1989. The home teams won those contests by the convincing average of 16.2 points per game.

Seahawks @ Rams 4:05 PM ET

Game# 467-468

Play On: Rams -1.0 (10*)

As bad as the Rams have been in recent years, they’ve gone 3-1 during the past 2 seasons against Seattle, and have also defeated the Seahawks the previous 3 times when playing at home. The Rams are coming off back to back wins in which they scored 35 points or more on each occasion.

Seattle is coming off a 46-18 home win over Indianapolis, and it improved their record to 2-2. However, they’re 0-2 SU&ATS on the road thus far. As a matter of fact, the Seahawks are 0-6 ATS and 1-5 straight up in their previous 6 away games which dates back to last season. As good as Seattle has been during the past 4 season, they’re only a mediocre 16-16 in their last 32 games on the road.

Any home team coming off 2 straight wins in which they scored 35 points or more on each occasion, versus an opponent that has at least 1 loss on the season, and they’ve won 17 or less of their last 32 games played on the road, resulted in those home teams going 66-8 (89.2%) straight up since 1984. Considering the point spread in this contest, the straight up records take on added significance. Bet on the Rams for a 10* Top Play wager.

Eagles @ Chargers 4:05 PM ET

Game# 271-272

Play On: Eagles +2.5 (10*)

The Chargers are off to a disappointing 0-3 and 2 of those contests were played at home. As a matter of fact, dating back to last season, they’ve lost 6 straight at home. The most recent of which came last Sunday 24-10 against division rival Kansas City.

The Eagles are coming off a thrilling last second win over the Giants via a made 60-yard field goal. The victory improved their record to 2-1. Since 2012, Philadelphia has gone 12-5 SU&ATS as an underdog or favorite of 2.5 or less, and that includes 6-2 SU&ATS during away games.

Any team (Philadelphia) possessing a winning record, versus an opponent coming off a home loss by 14 points or more, and they (Chargers) have a win percentage of .250 or less, resulted in those teams going 46-4 straight up since 2008. The straight up results take on added significance considering Philadelphia is an underdog. Bet on the Eagles plus the small number for a 10* Top Play wager.

New Orleans @ Carolina 1:00 PM ET

Game# 473-474

Play On: Carolina -5.5 (10*)

Carolina and Cam Newton has had their way with New Orleans in recent games. The Panthers have won 4 of their last 5 meetings with their division rival while averaging 34.0 points scored per game. Carolina amassed 406 or more yards of total offense in 4 of those 5 contests. Based on the New Orleans’ defense allowing their opponents to rack up 512.5 yards per game thus far, and have failed to force a turnover, I look for Carolina’s offense to once again dominate against them on Sunday. Meanwhile, the Panthers defense has allowed 3 points in each of their first 2 games, and allowed a mere 196.5 total yards per contest.

Carolina has opened the season with 2 straight wins, and is now 18-14 during their last 32 games played. Conversely, New Orleans has dropped its first 2 contests and failed to cover on each occasion as an underdog. The Saints are now 14-18 during their previous 32 games played. These results and past records fit nicely into a rare but never lost NFL ATS betting angle that’s illustrated below.

Any division home favorite of 9.0 or less (Carolina) that’s coming off 2 or more wins in a row, and they’ve won 11 or more of their last 32 games, versus an opponent coming off 2 straight underdog ATS losses, and they also won 11 or more of their previous 32 games, resulted in those home favorites going 10-0 SU&ATS since 1980. The average margin of victory in those contests was a substantial 20.4 points per game. Bet on Carolina minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Cleveland @ Baltimore 1:00 PM ET

Game# 263-264

Play On: Baltimore -7.5 (10*)

The Browns have gone 1-15 on the road during the past 2 seasons, and that includes losing 13 straight away games. As a matter of fact, since 2004, Cleveland is a pathetic 4-35 in division away games. If that isn’t enough, the Browns rookie quarterback Deshone Kizer will be making his first career start on the road, and it will be against what I perceive to be one of the best defenses in the NFL.

Conversely, Baltimore is a superb 47-14 (.770) in their last 61 home games. Furthermore, the Ravens are 16-2 straight up and 12-6 ATS during their previous 18 games against Cleveland. The Ravens are coming off an extremely impressive 20-0 win at Cincinnati in their season opener.

Any NFL home favorite of 4.0 or more (Baltimore), coming off an away win in which they held their opponent scoreless, and they’ve won 13 or more of their previous 32 games, versus an opponent (Cleveland) coming off a loss, and that opponents has won 24 or less of their previous 32 games played, resulted in those home favorites going 19-1 ATS (95%) since 1980. Bet on Baltimore minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Chargers @ Broncos 10:20 PM ET

Game# 481-482

Play On: Chargers +3.0 (10*)

Although Denver’s defense is still considered among the top stop units in the NFL, their offense leaves a lot to be desired. They’ll be facing a Chargers team tonight that has improved considerably on both sides of the ball. The Chargers have covered in each of their last 5 season openers. They’ve also gone a very profitable 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games played in Denver. Furthermore, the Chargers are 5-1 ATS in their previous 6 division away games.

The Chargers are coming off a poor 5-11 season, and are an abysmal 9-23 over their last 32 games overall. Nevertheless, NFL ATS betting history that pertains to opening games favors away underdogs with the Chargers win/loss parameters.

Any away underdog of 3.5 or less that’s playing in its season opener, coming off a season in which they won 6 games or less, and they’ve won 9 or less of their last 32 games overall, resulted in those away underdogs going 13-3 ATS since 1980. They also won 12 of those 16 games straight up. Bet on the Chargers plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Arizona @ Detroit 1:00 PM ET

Game# 461-462

Play On: Detroit +2.5 (5*)

You may be surprised to know, as good as Arizona has been in recent years, they’ve gone an abysmal 0-6 SU&ATS during their last 6 non-conference road contests, and lost by a decisive average of 14.5 points per game. Conversely, Detroit is a stellar 7-1 SU&ATS in their last 8 non-division home games.

Any home team (Detroit) that’s +2.5 to -2.5 in their season opener, and they won 9 games or more in the previous season, versus an opponent that won 9 games or more in their previous season, resulted in those home teams going 16-0 ATS and 15-1 straight up since 1985. Bet on Detroit for a 5* wager.

New England vs. Atlanta 6:35 PM ET

Game# 101-102

Play On: New England -3.0

New England is 23-8 in postseason games under Bill Belichik. This will be the 7th Super Bowl appearance for New England with Belichik as their head coach, and they’ve gone to the winner’s circle 4 times. All 6 of those Super Bowls came with current starting quarterback Tom Brady under center. Conversely, Atlanta has just 5 players on their current roster with Super Bowl experience, and none them played any type of significant role for the teams they represented. You can’t undervalue the big game experience this current Patriots roster has garnered in recent years compared to that of Atlanta.

Since 10/5 2014, New England is 6-0 SU&ATS as a favorite or underdog of 3.0 or less versus an opponent coming off a SU&ATS win. New England has won those 6 contests by a substantial average of 20.0 points per game. Under Bill Belichik, New England is 12-3 in postseason games coming off a week of rest. Bet on New England minus the small number for a 10* wager.

Green Bay @ Atlanta 3;00 PM ET

Play On: Atlanta -4.0 (10*)

The public has certainly fallen in love with Green Bay, and they’ll be especially adoring with the Packers as an underdog. However, Atlanta has the offensive skilled position players to expose a Packers defense that I’m not all that impressed with, and that’s especially the case in their secondary. I’ve been impressed with the improved play of Atlanta’s defense in recent games, and that’s been especially the case in terms of their pass rush. Atlanta will enter this game on a 5-game win streak, won by 19.0 points per contest, and averaged a robust 38.0 points scored per outing. Bet on Atlanta minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Green Bay @ Dallas 4:40 PM ET

Play On: Dallas -4.0 (10*)

I wish I had a dollar for every time I read or heard that Dallas isn’t that good since early October. Since losing their season opener at home to the Giants, Dallas has gone 13-2, and that includes a perfect 7-0 at home. As a matter of fact, the Cowboys were an unscathed 10-0 in non-division games this season and covered on 8 of those occasions. Those results included a decisive 30-16 win as a 5.0-point underdog at Green Bay on 10/16.

You may be surprised to know, Green Bay has played in 3 playoff games on the road since 2013, and fell short in each of those contests. The unavailability of Packers wide receiver Jordie Nelson is a huge handicapping factor to account for. Although Randall Cobb had a monster game in last week’s playoff win over the Giants, he’s struggled when cast into a #1 wide receiver like what transpired a season ago.

Since the 1986 NFL Playoffs, any home favorite of 3.5 to 8.5, coming off a loss in their last regular season game, and they possess a win percentage of .625 or better, versus an opponent (Green Bay) coming off a win, resulted in those home favorites going 21-7 ATS (75%) since 1986. Bet on Dallas minus the points for a 10* Top Play Wager.

Atlanta @ Seattle 4:35 PM ET

Play On: Seattle +4.5 (10*)

Since the start of the 2012 season, Seattle has gone an extremely profitable 14-3 ATS as an underdog. If they were an underdog of 3.5 or more, the Seahawks were a perfect 5-0 ATS, and won 4 of those 5 straight up.

Since 10/12/14, Atlanta is a dismal 3-13 as a home favorite, and that includes 0-7 ATS as a favorite of 6.5 or less. As a matter of fact, the Falcons 0-4 ATS this season as a home favorite of 6.5 or less, and lost 3 of those 4 straight up.

Atlanta quarterback Matt Ryan is 0-5 ATS in 5 career starts in the playoffs, and lost 4 of those games straight up. Conversely Russell Wilson is 8-3 straight up and 6-5 ATS in 11 career starts during the postseason, and that includes winning the 2014 Super Bowl.

Granted the Atlanta offense has been the most explosive in the NFL this season. However, their defense has allowed 28 points or more 7 times, and opponents racked up 387 yards or more of total offense on 9 separate occasions.

I can’t ignore nor pass up the underdog value in this contest. Bet on Seattle plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Miami @ Pittsburgh 1:05 PM ET

Play On: Over 45.5 (10*)

Miami finished the regular season by going 9-1 over the total in its last 10 games. As a matter of fact, they surpassed the number in each of their previous 6 contests, and there was a combined 51.5 points scored per game. The Dolphins are coming off a 35-14 blowout loss to New England. Since 2014, Miami is 5-0 over the total in road contests following a game in which they scored 14 points or less.

Since 2014, Pittsburgh is 11-2 over the total as a home favorite when the number is 48.0 or less. Furthermore, if they were facing a non-division opponent in that exact situation, Pittsburgh was 6-0 over the total, and there was a combined 59.3 points scored per game. The Steelers finished the regular season on a 6-game win streak, and they enter these playoffs with an 11-5 (.687) record. Pittsburgh scored 27 and 31 points in their last 2 games.

Any NFL road team (Miami) with at least 1 win on the season, and there’s a total of 45.0 or more, coming off a home game in which they scored 14 points or less, versus an opponent with a win percentage of less than .750, and they (Pittsburgh) scored 25 points or more in each of their previous 2 outings, resulted in those games going 10-0 over the total since 2007. There was a combined average of 63.3 points scored per game during those 10 contests. Bet on this game to over the total for my NFL Wild Card Round Total of the Year.

Tampa Bay @ Dallas 8:30 PM ET

Play On: Dallas -7.0 (10*)

It would be easy to be enamored with Tampa Bay as a touchdown underdog, and especially how well they’ve been playing of late. Dallas will be in a sour mood after having its 11-game win streak snapped last week after losing to the Giants. Play in front of the home folks in a primetime game is just what the doctor has prescribed for Dallas.

Any NFL regular season home favorite of 3.0 to 9.0 (Dallas), coming off an away favorite straight up loss against a division opponent, and is facing a team which scored 35 points or less in their previous game, resulted in those home favorites going 12-0 SU&ATS since 1980. The average margin of victory was 16.5 points per game. Bet on Dallas minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

New Orleans @ Tampa Bay 4:25 PM ET

Play On: New Orleans +2.5 (10*)

Dating back to 12/6/2015, New Orleans is a perfect 9-0 ATS as an underdog, and won 5 of those contests straight up. Their 4 straight up losses in that sequence came by a combined 15-points. Conversely, since 12/19/2012, Tampa Bay has gone an abysmal 1-10 SU&ATS as a favorite of 2.5 or more. This will be just the 2nd time in 13 games that Tampa Bay has been installed as a favorite this season.

New Orleans is coming off a 28-13 loss to Detroit last Sunday. The Saints have now gone 14-18 over their last 32 games played, including 5-7 this season. Tampa Bay is coming off a 28-21 win as a 3.0-point underdog at San Diego last week. That win improved Tampa’s record to 7-5. When combining these results and statistical data, it leads us to a never lost NFL betting angle illustrated below.

Any underdog of 3.0 or less playing in a division game following a non-division contest, possessing a losing record, and has won 22 or less of its last 32 games, versus an opponent with a winning record and coming off an away underdog straight up win, resulted in those underdogs going 14-0 SU&ATS since 1981. The average margin of victory in those 14 contests was 9.3 points per game. Bet on New Orleans for a 10* Top Play wager.

Carolina @ Seattle 8:30 PM ET

Play On: Carolina +8.5 (5*)

Despite their 4-7 (.363) record, Carolina was an underdog for a first time all season in last Sunday’s game at Oakland. Although Carolina loss that contest 35-32, they covered as a 3.5-point underdog. Carolina has now gone 5-0 ATS since 12/7/2014 as an underdog of 8.5 or less, and won 4 of the 5 straight up. Furthermore, I love the character the team displayed by rallying from a 24-7 halftime deficit to take a 32-27 lead before coming up short. It must be noted, 5 of Carolina’s 7 losses have come by 3 points or less.

It’s difficult to describe a team that’s 7-3-1 as being uninspiring, but it’s exactly how I feel about Seattle. Their offensive flaws were exposed again last week during a 14-5 loss at Tampa Bay. The Seahawks offensive line isn’t playoff caliber, and Carolina still possesses a strong defensive front 7. Seattle has rushed for 96 yards or less in 7 of their 11 games this season. Carolina has allowed 91 yards or less on the ground during 10 of its last 11 games. I like the Panthers to at least stay inside this number, if not pull the outright upset.

Any underdog of 3.5 to 9.5, playing after game 4 of the season, coming off a loss in which they covered as an underdog, and they own a win percentage of .250 to .400, resulted in those underdogs going 23-3 ATS since 2008. The underdogs were also 17-9 straight up. Bet on Carolina plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Green Bay @ Philadelphia 8:30 PM ET

Play On: Green Bay +4.5 (10*)

Green Bay (4-6) is coming off a pair of pathetic performances during road losses to Tennessee 47-24, and then last Sunday’s 42-24 loss at Washington. It would seem like a no-brainer to fade the rather small underdog of +4.5 tonight based on those last 2 results. However, NFL ATS betting history has shown differently. Any NFL team (Green Bay) that’s +5.5 to -5.5 with a win percentage of .200 or better, playing in game 3 through 12 of the season, and is coming off 2 straight losses in which they allowed 40 points or more in each contest, versus an opponent (Philadelphia/5-5) with a win percentage of less than .666, resulted in those teams going a perfect 7-0 SU&TS since 1981. The average margin of victory in those 7 contests was a substantial 15.0 points per game.

Here’s another NFL betting angle with a larger sample size. Keeping in mind Green Bay’s 42-24 loss at Washington last week, and noting Philadelphia’s 26-15 loss at Seattle in their previous game. Any non-division road underdog of 7.5 or less (Green Bay), coming off a road loss by 14 points or more, versus an opponent (Philadelphia) coming off a road loss by 26 points or less, resulted in those road underdogs going an outstanding 31-5 ATS (86.1%) since 1987. Furthermore, those road underdogs also went an impressive 29-7 (.801) straight up during those 36 contests. Play on Green Bay plus the points for my NFL Monday Night Game of the Year.

New England @ NY Jets 4:25 PM ET

Play On: NY Jets +8.5 (10*)

The Jets have played New England as about as tough as any team in the NFL during recent years. As a matter of fact, they’ve gone 6-0 ATS versus New England in the last 6 times they faced them, and won 2 of the last 3 straight when playing at home. New York has the luxury of coming off a bye week.

New England won 30-17 at San Francisco last Sunday, and they’re now 8-2 (.800) this season. The Patriots are stellar 24-8 over their previous 32 games.

Any division home underdog of 5.5 to 10.0, coming off a bye week, versus an opponent with a win percentage of .375 or better, and they’ve also won 17 or more of their previous 32 games, resulted in those home underdogs going 21-1 ATS (95.4%) since 1987. The underdogs won 10 of those 22 contests straight up. Bet on the New York Jets plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Washington @ Dallas 4:30 PM ET

Play On: Under 52.0 (10*)

Washington is coming off a 42-24 home win against Green bay this past Sunday night. Dallas is coming off a 27-17 home win against Baltimore last Sunday. The combination of these two results, and the current total, sets up a never lost NFL total betting angle which has held firm during the past 12 seasons.

Any away team with a total of 50.0 or more, coming off a home win in which they scored 20 points or more, versus a division opponent which scored 37 points or less in their previous game, resulted in those away teams going a perfect 25-0 under the total since 2005. There was a combined average of just 39.4 points scored per game during those 25 contests. Bet on this game to go under the total for a 10* Top Play wager.

Green Bay @ Washington 8:30 PM ET

Play On: Washington -2.5 (10*)

The Green Bay Packers clearly have issues heading into this week. They’re coming off straight up favorite loss to the Colts and Titans in each of its last 2 games. As a matter of fact, they’ve dropped 3 in a row, and last week’s embarrassing 47-25 loss at Tennessee that made them 4-5 (.444) put an exclamation point on their struggles. Washington is 6-0 SU&ATS in their last 6 home games versus an opponent with a win percentage of better than .400. The Redskins are also 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3 home games overall.

Any regular season home favorite of 4.5 or less, versus an opponent coming off back to back straight up favorite losses, and that opponent t possesses a win percentage of .400 or better, resulted in those home favorites going a perfect 16-0 SU&ATS since 1985. The average margin of victory in those contests was 14.4 points per game. Bet on Washington minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager wager.

Dallas @ Pittsburgh 4:25 PM ET

Play On: Pittsburgh -2.5 (10*)

Pittsburgh enters this week having gone 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3, and Dallas is a remarkable 7-0 SU&ATS during it previous 7 games. Yet, The Steelers are a favorite in this contest. The books are inviting you to take the red-hot underdog against a reeling opponent. Nevertheless, I’m not taking the bait.

Pittsburgh is coming off a 21-14 loss as a 3.0-point favorite at Baltimore last Sunday. Pittsburgh is 10-0 SU&ATS in their last 10 games as a home favorite following a loss by 7 points or more. Dallas won 35-10 at Cleveland last week, and easily covered as a 4.5-point favorite.

Any home favorite coming off an away favorite straight up loss, playing before game 13 of the season, and is facing an opponent coming off an away favorite ATS win, resulted in those home favorites going 12-0 SU and 11-1 ATS since. The average margin of victory in those contests was a sizable 17.4 points per game. Bet on Pittsburgh for a 10* Top Play wager.

Eagles @ Giants 1:00 PM ET

Play On: Eagles +2.5 (10*)

Let’s not get carried away with the Giants 2-game win streak. They defeated Baltimore who’s currently on a 4-games losing streak, and against a Rams team which has lost 3 in a row. Conversely, Philadelphia’s 3 losses this year have come by a combined 14 points, including last week’s 29-23 overtime defeat at Dallas. On the other hand, the Eagles 4 wins have come by a decisive average of 19.0 points per game.

Any road team that’s +3.0 to -3.0, coming off a road loss, and has a win percentage of less than .625, resulted in those road teams going 59-15 SU&ATS (79.7%) since 2007. Bet on Philadelphia plus the small number for a 10* Top Play wager.

San Diego @ Denver 4:05 PM ET

Play On: San Diego +4.0 (10*)

San Diego enters this week with an uninspiring 3-4 record thus far. However, if you look closer inside the numbers, San Diego is a much better team than their record indicates. The Chargers 4 losses have come by a combined 14 points. With a little bit of luck, and a lot less bad fortune, the Chargers could’ve easily been 7-0 at this juncture. After starting 1-4, they’ve bounced back to win its next 2 games against Denver and at Atlanta. San Diego has been a terrific away underdog of late. The Chargers are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 games as an away underdog of 2.0 or more. As a matter of fact, since 2013, San Diego has gone 8-0 ATS overall as an underdog of 3.5 to 7.0, and won 4 of those games straight up.

You may be surprised to know that Denver hasn’t exactly been a profitable home favorite recently. The Broncos are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite of 8.0 or less following a win. Even more telling has been Denver’s ATS mark as a division home favorite of 6.0 or less. They’ve gone a dismal 0-6 in their last 6 in that precise role, and lost 5 of those contests straight up. Bet on San Diego plus the points as a 10* Top Play selection.

Colts @ Titans 1:00 PM ET

Play On: Colts +3.0 (10*)

Tennessee has gone 4-21 over their last 25 home games, and that includes 1-16 when they’re +3.0 to -3.0. Since 2012, Indianapolis has gone 10-3 SU&ATS in their last 13 division away games.

Indianapolis is coming off a heartbreaking loss at Houston last Sunday night. That defeat dropped their record to 2-4 this season. Tennessee enters this contest with a 3-3 mark.

Any road team (Colts) that’s +3.0 to -3.0, playing in games 2 through 12, coming off a road loss, and has a losing record, versus an opponent (Titans) with a win percentage of .500 or better, resulted in those road teams going 34-3 SU&ATS (91.8%) since 2007. Bet on the Colts plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Falcons @ Seahawks 4:25 PM ET

Play On: Seahawks -6.0 (10*)

Atlanta is coming off an impressive run of winning 3 games in a row, and did so as an underdog on each occasion. As a result, they’re off to a terrific 4-1 (.800) start to the season. Since 1980, there’s been just 12 teams which have accomplished that identical feat while possessing a better than win percentage of better than .588, and in their following games they proceeded to go a dismal 1-11 SU&ATS.

Since 2012, Seattle is 33-5 at home, and that includes an extremely profitable 25-13 ATS (65.7%). Furthermore, during that exact time period, the Seahawks are 9-0 SU&ATS as at home when +6.0 to -6.0, and when facing a non-division opponent. Seattle had the luxury of a bye last week.

Since 1980, any home favorite of 4.5 or more, playing an opponent coming off 2 consecutive straight up underdog wins, resulted in those home favorites going 6-0 SU&ATS. The average victory margin was a massive 22.2 points per game. Bet on Seahawks minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Eagles @ Lions 1:00 PM ET

Play On: Lions +3.5 (10*)

Detroit is off to a disappointing 1-3 start. However, their 3 losses have come by a combined 11 points. Detroit is coming off a 17-14 loss at Chicago last Sunday, and failed to cover as a 3.5-point road favorite. The Lions have epitomized mediocrity by going 16-16 over their previous 32 games. They’ll be facing a Philadelphia team which is coming off a 34-3 blowout of Pittsburgh, and they easily covered as a 3.5-point home underdog. These teams met on Thanksgiving Day in Detroit last season, and the Lions won in a 45-14 rout.

Any home team (Lions) coming off an away favorite straight up loss, and they won 16 or more of their last 32 games, versus an opponent coming off a home underdog straight up win, resulted in those home teams going 44-5 (89.8%) straight up since 1980. Furthermore, if those home teams were playing non-division opponents, this betting angle improved to a perfect 25-0 straight up. The straight up numbers take on added significance since the home team in this instance is an underdog. Bet on the Lions plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Chiefs @ Steelers 8:30 PM ET

Play On: Steelers -4.0 (10*)

Pittsburgh is coming off an embarrassing 34-3 loss as a 3.5-point favorite at Philadelphia last Sunday. The Steelers have recently been successful following a loss, and especially so during the early part of the schedule. The Steelers are a perfect 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 contests following a loss, and when playing in games 2 through 7. They won those contests by a decisive 12.4 points per game. The final kicker, Pittsburgh will be out to revenge last season’s 28-13 loss at Kansas City.

Kansas City is 0-5 SU&ATS in its last 5 as a non-division away underdog, and lost by 9.2 points per game. Additionally, they’re coming off a 24-3 SU&ATS win over the Jets last Sunday, and easily covered as a 3.0-point favorite.

Any non-division home favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 that’s playing with revenge, coming off an away favorite straight up loss, versus an opponent coming off a non-division SU&ATS win in which they covered by 3.0 points or more, resulted in those home favorite going 13-0 SU&ATS since 1981. The average margin of victory was a massive 20.0 points per game. Bet on the Steelers minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Cardinals @ Bills 1:00 PM ET

Play On: Bills +4.0 (10*)

After a disappointing 0-2 start, desperation and urgency will be Buffalo’s biggest ally against a very good opponent on Sunday. Beware of the wounded animal.

Buffalo is coming off a 37-31 loss at the hands of their AFC East rival the New York Jets. Arizona’s previous game resulted in a convincing 40-7 home win over Tampa Bay, and they easily covered as a 7.0-point favorite.

Any NFL home underdog of 5.0 or less (Buffalo), coming off a division home loss, versus an opponent (Arizona) coming off a home favorite ATS win, resulted in those home underdogs going 12-0 ATS since 1983. Furthermore, those home underdogs won 10 of the 12 games outright. Bet on the Bills plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Packers @ Vikings 8:30 PM ET

Play On: Vikings +2.0 (10*)

Emotions will be high on Sunday night in Minnesota. After all, it will be the defending NFC North champs first game in its new state of the art stadium. Not to mention, arch rival Green Bay is in town. The Vikings went into Tennessee last week and won SU&ATS with 36-year-old backup quarterback Shaun Hill at the helm. This week Sam Bradford makes his Vikings debut at that’s a huge upgrade compared to Hill. This is an excellent Vikings defensive unit, and they’ll play a major role in use collecting on this wager. The Packers had less than 300 yards of offense in last week’s win at Jacksonville. They’ll be facing a vastly superior stop unit on Sunday night.

Since 2010, any underdog of 4.5 or less playing in their home opener which won 2 or more game during the previous season, and they’re facing a division opponent, resulted in those home underdogs going 17-1 ATS. The underdogs also won 15 of those contests outright. Bet the Vikings plus the small number for a 10* Top Play wager.

Bengals @ Jets 1:00 PM ET

Play On: Jets +2.5 (10*)

Note: Please buy this up to +3.0 if you possibly can. Otherwise, +2.5 is fine.

This is one of those rare situations when you have a team (Bengals) which won 12 or more games the year before, and they’re in a +2.5 to -2.5 point spread parameter in their season opener. NFL ATS history has shown this to be an extremely profitable situation when fading such teams. Furthermore, I firmly believe when it’s all said and done, the Jets will prove to be a better team than Cincinnati during this 2016-2017 campaign. That point will begin to be made apparent starting on Sunday.

Any home team which is +2.5 to -2.5, and is playing in its season opener, versus an opponent that won 12 or more games during the previous year, resulted in those home teams going a perfect 17-0 SU&ATS since 1987. Those home teams won those 17 contests by an average of 12.1 points per game. Take the Jets plus the small number for a 10* Top Play wager.

Carolina vs. Denver 6:30 PM ET

Play On: Carolina -5.5 (10*)

Let’s just do some simple comparisons. Carolina is a +28 turnover differential this season, and that includes +8 in its two playoff contests. Denver is -2 for the season. Cam Newton has thrown for 38 touchdowns against only 11 interceptions this season. Peyton Manning has tossed 11 touchdowns and has been intercepted 17 times. Carolina has held opponents to 78 yards or less rushing in ten of its last eleven games. The Panthers have run for 105 yards or more in all 18 of their games this season. Denver has been held to less than 100 yards rushing ten times, and that includes 69 yards or fewer on seven separate occasions.

Any NFL postseason favorite of 4.5 or more, possessing a better than .666 win percentage, versus an opponent coming off a home underdog straight up win, and they have a .470 or better win percentage, resulted in the favorite going 14-1 ATS since 1984. They also won all 15 games outright, and by an average of 18.0 points per contest. Play on Carolina minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Carolina vs. Denver 6:30 PM ET

Play On: Over 43.0 (10*)

Carolina has gone a perfect 9-0 over the total the past two seasons when facing an opponent with a winning record. Those nine games averaged a combined 57.6 points per contest. Carolina has gone over the total in each of their last five games this season as a favorite of 6.5 or less, and there were a combined average of 63.6 points scored per contest. Carolina has scored 31 points or more in eight of its previous nine games, and they’re average 32.2 points scored per contest this season. Denver has gone over the total in each of their last five contests after winning four in a row, and there was a combined average of 69.2 points scored per game.

Any Super Bowl team (Carolina) that’s gone 3-0 SU&ATS as a favorite in its last three games, and there was a total of 46.5 or less, resulted in all eight of those contests going over the total since 1980. Those eight Super Bowls averaged a combined 55.4 points scored per game. Play on this game to go over the total for a 10* Top Play selection.

Arizona @ Carolina 7:40 PM ET

Play On: Over 47.0 (10*)

Both of these NFC Championship Game participants have been explosive offensively this season. As a matter of fact, they’re the top two scoring teams in the NFL. Arizona has averaged 30.6 points (#2) and 408.3 yards (#1) of total offense per game this season. They’re even better than that on the road. In eight away games, the Cardinals are averaging 32.7 points and 426 yards per contest. Arizona averages a large 6.28 yards per offensive play, and that’s best in the NFL.

Carolina has eerily similar offensive numbers in comparison to their upcoming opponent. They’re averaging 31.2 points (#1) and 367 yards of total offense per game. Those numbers improve to 33.0 points and 392 yards per game when playing at home.

Arizona is #5 in total defense, allowing an average of only 321.7 yards per game. However, the Cardinals have allowed 354 yards or more in four of its previous five games. Arizona has been adept at creating turnovers this season. They’ve had 34 takeaways in 17 games. However, Carolina has committed only 19 turnovers in 17 contests thus far.

Along those same lines, Carolina is #6 in the NFL in total defense, allowing an average of 322.9 yards per game. Unfortunately, the Panthers defense has been torched for 373 yards or more in each of their last four contests. They’ve been able to cover up that deficiency during this stretch by creating a combined 9 turnovers, and having a +5 takeaway/giveaway differential. They’ll have their hands full in those regards against a Cardinals team which is a +8 this season in that exact category. As good as the Panthers defense whole body of work has been this season, they’ve been amongst the worst stop units in regards to allowing plays of 20 or more yards.

Granted the Cardinals are 6-1 under the total in their last seven games. We also mustn’t forget, they began the season by going over the total in eight of its first ten contests. Carolina has seen its last eight games go over the total when facing an opponent with a winning record. Those contests averaged a combined 56.9 points scored per contest. Since Ron Rivera took over as head coach in Carolina prior to the start of the 2011 season, the Panthers are 19-7 over the total when facing an opponent with a winning record. Tightening those numbers up even further, if the total was 46.0 or more, Carolina is 10-1 over the total during that five season stretch. Play on this game to go over the total for a 10* rating.

Pittsburgh @ Denver 4:40 PM ET

Play On: Denver -7.5 (10*)

I’m no doctor, but torn ligament and a sprained AC joint in your throwing shoulder isn’t a good thing for a quarterback. Ben Roethlisberger is as tough as they come. However, I’m fairly sure that the Steelers vertical passing game will be hindered by his injuries, not to mention all world wide receiver Antonio Brown being doubtful due to a concussion. In addition, they’ll be facing one of if not the best defensive unit (Denver) in the NFL. Another point that can’t be overlooked is the 26 turnovers committed by Pittsburgh during its last eleven games. Giving Peyton Manning an extra week to prepare against a suspect at best Pittsburgh defense will provide another edge for Denver.

Any home favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 that has a winning record, and has won 19 or more of their last 32 home games, versus an opponent coming off road wins in each of their previous two games, and they have a winning percentage of greater than .571, resulted in those home favorites going 18-0 SU&ATS since 1988. Those home favorites won those contests by a lofty average of 18.2 points per game. Play on the Denver Broncos minus the points for a 10* Top Play pick.

Green Bay @ Arizona 8:15 PM ET

Play On: Arizona -7.0 (10*)

Let’s not get carried away with the so called offensive resurgence by Green Bay last week. They caught a monumental break by drawing a Washington team that won the “NFL Least” with a 9-7 record. They will be facing a much tougher defense this week as well. Arizona was #5 in total defense as well as #7 in scoring defense in the NFL this season. The Cardinals were also #1 in total offense and #2 in scoring. These teams met in Week 16 of the regular season, and Arizona blew out Green Bay by a score of 36-8. Green Bay was only able to amass 178 yards of offense in that loss and tuned the ball over 4 times. They also sacked the usually elusive Aaron Rodgers 9 times. Arizona is 15-0 in their last 15 home games against non-division opponents, and they were also 10-5 ATS in those contests. Since 11/26/2012, Green Bay has gone 1-7 SU&ATS as a road underdog of 2.0 to 8.0 points.

Any non-division playoff home favorite of 3.0 or more that’s won 19 or more of their previous 32 games, versus an opponent coming off a game in which they scored 35 points or more, and that opponent is playing with revenge, resulted in the home favorite going 24-3 SU&ATS (88.8%) since 1980. Play on the Arizona Cardinals minus the points for a 10* Top Play selection.

The Vikings will be playing with big time revenge stemming from an embarrassing 38-7 home loss to Seattle in early December. It also must be kept in mind, playoff home underdogs of 4.0 or more have gone 4-0 ATS since 1980, and won three of those contests straight up. The Vikings have gone 9-2 straight up and 8-3 ATS during their last 11 home games. During that successful home stretch, they’ve also gone 6-1 SU&ATS against non-division opponents. Minnesota finished the regular season by going 3-0 SU&ATS, and allowed an average of just 16.7 points per game.

Any home underdog of 7.0 or less, playing with same season revenge, coming off three or more wins in a row with the last as an underdog, versus an opponent coming off a win, and that opponent has a winning percentage of .625 or better, resulted in those home underdogs going 15-0 SU&ATS since 1985. The underdog won all of those games outright by an average of 10.0 points per contest. Play on the Minnesota Vikings as a 10* Top Play selection.

Kansas City won the first meeting between these teams 34-20 in Oakland. The final score of that contest is quite deceptive. Oakland blew a 20-13 fourth quarter lead in that contest, and it was a direct result of three David Carr interceptions thrown in that final stanza. One of those picks was returned for a touchdown, and the other two turned into touchdowns on Kansas City drives following the change of possession. Oakland actually held a 361-222 advantage in total yards during the defeat. Oakland has gone 4-3 straight up and 5-2 ATS on the road this season. As a matter of fact, they’ve gone 4-0 ATS this season as an away underdog, and won three of those contests outright. Jack Del Rio is a perfect 8-0 against the spread in his head coaching career when his teams were playing with same season revenge.

Any division away underdog of 9.5 or less with a win percentage of better than .400, playing with revenge after game 12 of the season, coming off a straight up home win in which they were installed as a favorite, versus an opponent coming off a straight up win, and they possess a winning percentage of .600 or better, resulted in those away underdogs going 23-1 ATS (95.8%) since 1983. The underdog also won 18 of those 24 (75%) games outright. Play on the Oakland Raiders plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Arizona is coming off a 40-17 win at Philadelphia last Sunday night. The Cardinals are 9-0 SU&ATS in their last nine home games following a non-division away win, and won by an average of 18.7 points per contest. Since the start of the 2013 season, Arizona is a perfect 14-0 at home against non-division opponent, and their average margin of victory was 8.4 points per contest. Since 11/25/2012, Green Bay has gone a dismal 2-8 ATS as an away underdog of 7.0 or less.

Any favorite (Arizona) of 5.0 or less that has a win percentage of .684 or better, versus an opponent which is three straight covers as a favorite, resulted in those favorites going 15-0 SU&ATS since 1997. The average margin of victory was 15.0 points per game. Play on the Arizona Cardinals minus the points as a 10* Top Play selection.

I just don’t see the Lions recovering from that gut wrenching home loss to Green Bay two weeks ago. They played uninspired football in last Sunday’s 21-14 loss as a 3.0 point favorite at St. Louis. Detroit is 1-14 ATS in their last fifteen on the road after game 9 of the season.

The Saints showed me a lot of character by going on the road last week and churning out a 24-17 win at Tampa Bay. With the way their season has gone, it would’ve been easy to mail it in last week, and especially so on the road. The Saints are 10-2 ATS in their last twelve games as a home favorite of 4.0 or less.

Any non-division home favorite of 5.5 or less, coming off a straight up underdog win versus a division opponent, versus a team coming off a straight up favorite loss, resulted in the home favorites going 20-2 ATS (90.9%) since 1988. Play on the New Orleans Saints minus the points for a 10* Top Play selection.

The Rams opened as a 1.0 point underdog in this contest, and has since moved to a current line of either -2.5 or -3.0. This huge line movement has taken place despite the fact that the volume of point spread wagers have been virtually even. However, the bigger bets and sharper money has decisively gone on the Rams, and in my opinion for good reason. St. Louis is coming off a 21-14 home win last week over Detroit. Tampa Bay sustained a 24-17 home defeat to New Orleans this past Sunday, and that loss was a crushing blow to their already feint playoff hopes.

Any home team playing after game 11 of the season, coming off a home win in which they allowed 22 points or less, and they have a .384 or better win percentage, versus a non-division opponents with a losing record and coming off a home loss, resulted in those home teams going 30-0 straight up since 1980. Considering the small number we’re being asked to cover, the straight up results take on a more added significance. Play on the St. Louis Rams for a 10* Top Play wager.

Obviously the Patriots offense has been slowed a bit in recent weeks due to the loss of wide receiver Julian Edelman, all world tight end Rob Gronkowski, and running back Dion Lewis. None of those three players will be in uniform today. However, Tom Brady is still their quarterback, and no team in the NFL adjusts better to the personnel that’s available than New England. The Patriots have gone 4-1 over the total on the road this season, and there was a combined average of 55.2 points scored per contest.

Houston’s defense dominant three game run came to a screeching halt last week in a 30-21 loss at Buffalo. The Bills offense racked up 390 yards of total offense, and that included 183 yards on the ground. Buffalo also may have established the blueprint to Neutralizing J.J. Watt who was a non-factor in last Sunday’s game. On the other hand, the Texans offense was able to amass 401 yards of total offense in the loss. During the past three seasons, Houston is 7-1 over the total as a home underdog of 7.0 or less. Play on this game to go over the total for a 10* Top Play wager.

Eli Manning versus Kirk Cousins, and Tom Coughlin against Jay Gruden, and I’m fairly certain you see where I’m going with this. The Giants have gone a perfect 5-0 SU&ATS in their last five meetings with the Redskins. In addition, the Giants have been notorious for coming up with superb performances on the road in big games since Tom Coughlin has been in charge. The Giants are averaging 35.7 points and 388.3 yards of total offense in their previous three contests. Washington is allowing 28.3 points and 392.7 yards per game in their last three contests.

Any road underdog or favorite of 3.0 or less playing in game 10 of the season or beyond, coming off a straight up loss but ATS cover in their previous game, versus an opponent with a winning percentage of .100 to .499, resulted in that road team going 25-1 SU&ATS (96.1%) since 1991. Play on the New York Giants for a 10* Top Play wager.

Chicago has gone a very respectable 4-3 during their previous seven games. Their three losses during that stretch have all come by 3 points or less. The Bears defense has shown a substantial improvement this year under the guidance of new head coach John Fox. They’ve allowed 23 points or less in six of their last seven games. During their season opening 31-23 loss to Green Bay, they held the Packers to just 322 yards of total offense. They’ve also held four of their previous nine opponents to 300 yards or less. Matt Forte is expected to return for this game, and that will certainly give the Bears an additional boost.

The Packers snapped a three game losing streak last Sunday with a 30-13 win at Minnesota. Their offense still doesn’t look like that overwhelming attach they’ve been in recent years. During their last four contests they’re averaging a mediocre 21.3 points and 308.5 yards per game.

Any division away underdog of 3.0 to 9.5, playing with revenge, versus an opponent coming off a division away underdog straight up win in which they covered by 10.0 or more, resulted in the road underdog going 27-2 ATS (93.1%) since 1986. The underdog also won 14 of those 29 games outright. Play on the Chicago Bears for a 10* Top Play wager.

The Packers are sorely missing their deep vertical threat Jordy Nelson, and especially so during this current three game losing streak. Opposing defenses have really figured out how to neutralize the usually explosive Packers offense. You may be surprised to know that Green Bay is 1-8 SU&ATS in their last nine games as an away pick or underdog of 7.5 or less, and that includes 0-5 SU&ATS as an underdog of 3.5 or less (-16.2 PPG).

The Vikings are a perfect 4-0 SU&ATS at home this season with an average victory margin of 9.0 points per game. As a matter of fact, they’ve won 7 in a row at home dating back to last season, and are 13-3 in the last 16 in Minnesota. Considering the current point spread, and the fact they’re facing an opponent that’s currently struggling, there’s a lot of betting value for the home side.

Minnesota is coming road underdog straight up 30-14 win at Oakland last Sunday. Any NFL home favorite or underdog of 3.0 or less, coming off an away underdog straight up win by 10 points or more, and they allowed 20 points or less, resulted in the home team going 17-2 SU&ATS since 1996. Play on the Minnesota Vikings for a 10* Top Play wager.

For the second consecutive week Green Bay is installed as a road favorite against an undefeated opponent. Unfortunately for them, the first time around didn’t go well. They were beaten quite convincingly at Denver by a score of 29-10, and were outgained in that contest 500-140. Star quarterback Aaron Rogers suffered through one of, if not the worst day of his illustrious career. Despite that loss, the books seem undeterred. The last I checked, they’re not generous, nor charitable to sports bettors. Public perception will look at the Packers loss last week, and believe they’re getting an absolute steal with an undefeated home underdog this week. The reality of the situation, if it looks that easy, it seldom is.

Since 12/28/2008, Green Bay has gone 23-5-1 following a loss. That number is even more impressive if they’re coming off a loss against a non-division opponent. The Packers are 17-2-1 during that exact time frame when coming off a non-division defeat in their previous game, and they’re also 15-5 ATS in those contests.

Since the start of the 2011 NFL season, any road favorite that’s coming off a road favorite straight up loss, resulted in that team going 14-5 ATS (73.7%). It’s even more profitable if they’re a favorite of 4.5 or less, going 9-1 ATS during that exact time frame.

The Packers defense had been vastly improved and quite impressive this season. That is of course, until last Sunday’s debacle in Denver. However, that Denver defense appears to be the best in the NFL at this juncture, and especially so when playing at home. The Panthers defense is very good as well, but they won’t present the same challenges to Aaron Rogers and company that they encountered last Sunday. Speaking of Aaron Rogers, he’s not going to have two bad games in a row. The Green Bay defense will also be out to atone for last week’s embarrassing performance, and I firmly believe they’ll bounce back in a big way. Play on the Green Bay Packers for a 10* wager.

The Denver Broncos have gone an outstanding 23-1 in their last 24 regular season home games, and that includes15-0 if they’re facing a non-division opponent. You may be surprised to know that Green Bay has gone an uninspiring 7-12 in their last 19 non-division away games, and that includes 2-7 as a favorite or underdog of 3.5 or less.

Let’s briefly discuss the matter of an undefeated home team at this juncture of the season. Any NFL home team that’s undefeated, and playing in games 7 through 13 of the season, versus an opponent with a winning percentage of .200 or better, resulted in that undefeated home underdog going 25-2 (92.6%) since 2004. Play on the Denver Broncos plus the points as my “NFL Game of the Year Part I”.

The St. Louis Rams have gone a dismal 3-9 ATS as a home favorite of 10.0 or less since 2011. St. Louis has gone 1-3 SU&ATS in their last four games, and their inept offensive play has been a major contributor to those defeats. During that four game stretch, they’ve averaged just 12.5 points and 288.3 yards per game.

The Browns are coming off a gut wrenching 26-23 overtime home loss to undefeated Denver last Sunday. It was the third consecutive game for Cleveland that was decided by 3 points. Prior to the Denver loss, they were a 33-30 winner at Baltimore, and that was preceded by a 30-27 defeat at San Diego. Cleveland’s last three losses have come by a combined 13 points. Since Mike Pettine took over as head coach last season, Cleveland has gone a perfect 7-0 ATS as an underdog following a loss. Cleveland could’ve very easily won each of their last five instead of going 2-3 during that span. There’s nothing apparent which would lead me to believe that Cleveland won’t be in this game for the duration, or possibly even pull off an outright upset. Play on the Browns for a 10* Top Play wager.

Seattle possesses an extremely strong home field advantage. The only other team that it’s even in the same stratosphere is Green Bay. Since the start of the 2012 season, Seattle has gone 28-2 at Century Link Field. They’ve also been a cash cow at home during that stretch, going 21-9 (70%) ATS, and includes a perfect 12-0 SU&ATS as an underdog or favorite of 7.5 or less. Seattle has allowed a combined 10 points in their first two games at Century Link Field, and the only touchdown they surrendered came on a defensive fumble return by Detroit. The Seahawks defense allowed just 146 yards to Chicago, and 256 against Detroit during those two home contests

The Carolina Panthers are coming off a bye week. You would think a 4-0 team playing with rest, and installed as an underdog, would provide an optimum betting edge. Well think again, because the ATS history of this exact situation says otherwise. The Panthers were a 37-23 winner at Tampa Bay in their previous game, and covered easily as a 3.0 point road favorite. This becomes an extremely rare scenario where you have an away underdog playing with rest, and is coming off an away favorite ATS win. This is just the eleventh such time this has occurred since 1980. Any away underdog playing with rest, and is coming off an away favorite ATS win, has gone 1-9 ATS in addition to losing all ten games outright.

Carolina has defeated Jacksonville, Houston, New Orleans, and Tampa Bay on their way to a 4-0 start. Those four teams were a combined 5-15 heading into this week’s action. This is clearly an overrated Carolina team. Contrarily, they’re certainly not being overvalued by the sportsbooks this week considering they’re a touchdown underdog versus an opponent that currently sports a losing record. Play on the Seattle Seahawks minus the points as a 10* top Play selection.

At this stage of their careers, I much prefer Blake Bortles at quarterback over highly prized rookie Jameis Winston. Jacksonville deserved a better fate in last week’s 16-13 overtime loss at Indianapolis. The Jaguars three losses this season have come against opponents that are a combined 10-2. Tampa Bay has been outscored in their two home games by a wide margin of 79-37. The Buccaneers have also committed 10 turnovers during their first four games of the year, and Jacksonville has turned it over just 4 times in as many contests.

Any road favorite or underdog of 3.0 or less that’s won 13 or less of their previous 32 games, coming off a loss by 3 points or less, versus an opponent that allowed 30 points or more in their last game, that opponent (Buccaneers) has a winning percentage of less than .600, resulted in the road team going 25-3 SU&ATS (89.3%) since 1980. Play on the Jacksonville Jaguars plus the points as a 10* Top Play selection.

Cincinnati has not only won their first three games, but they covered on each of those occasions. NFL history has shown that home favorites or underdogs of 9.0 or less, playing in game 4 of the season, and were 3-0 SUATS in their first 3 contests, coming off a game in which they covered by 15.0 or less while scoring 20 points or more, resulted in the home team going 12-1 SU&ATS since 1980. Needless to say, this exact situation clearly favors Cincinnati. In addition, the Bengals are 17-4-1 straight up in their last twenty-two at home, including 16-5-1 ATS. They’ve also gone an extremely profitable 8-1 SU & ATS in their last nine as a home underdog or favorite of 5.5 or less. All those games have come under the watchful eye of current head coach Marvin Lewis.

This is a classic example of one team (Chiefs) not living up to their preseason billing, and the other (Bengals) being much better than even the positive predictions would have implied. Of course it’s still very early, but the situation shapes up very nicely for a Bengals cover.

Any favorite of 6.5 or less coming off SU&ATS wins in each of their previous two games, and the last one came as an underdog, versus an opponent coming off a loss in which they allowed 37 points or more, resulted in the favorite going 24-5 ATS (82.7%) since 1981. Play on Cincinnati minus the points as a 10* Top Play selection.

Oakland has lost the last 10, and they’re 1-19 during their previous twenty road games. When looking inside those numbers, the Raiders have seen 18 of those 19 losses come by 4 points or more. Need I remind you what the current point spread is? As a matter of fact, they were an underdog in each contest, and were +6.0 or more in 19 of those 20 games. The Raiders are in relatively unchartered waters as this small of a road underdog. I understand the Raiders are coming off an impressive home underdog straight up win last week over Baltimore. However, Oakland has gone 0-9 SU&ATS in their previous nine games following a win, and lost those contests by an average of 21.1 points per game.

Josh McCown has been cleared to play and by all account he will resume as the Browns starting quarterback. Johnny Manziel filled in admirably last week in McCown’s absence during Cleveland’s 28-14 home win over Tennessee. I may be in the minority, but I don’t feel as though McCown is a huge upgrade over Manziel, nor do I believe there a significant drop off when “Johnny Football” is under center. One thing I do like a lot in this matchup is the Browns defense. Raiders quarterback Derek Carr is bright young star in the making, but he will be in a very tough environment at “The Dawg Pound” on Sunday. Play on the Cleveland Browns minus the points as a 10* Top Play selection.

It may be a bit of an old fashioned approach, but certainly is a proven winning formula at playoff time. The New England Patriots are an impressive +13 in the turnover department this season, while the Colts are a -6. That's a huge +19 turnover differential disparity between that favors the Patriots. I would be foolish to ignore that factor. This is also a New England team which has gone an outstanding 23-8 ATS (74.2%) in their last 31-games as a home favorite of 9.0 or less. They've faced the Colts three times since 2012, and have gone 3-0 SU&ATS in those contests. Even more impressive is the decisiveness of those three wins by the scores of 42-20, 43-22, and 59-24. Since the start of the 2011 season, the Colts are 1-7 SU&ATS as an away underdog of 7.5 or less versus an opponent with a winning percentage of .500 or better.

Any playoff home favorite of 4.5 to 9.5, coming off a playoff home win by 4-points or more, versus an opponent that has a winning percentage of .800 or less, and that opponent is playing with revenge, has seen the home favorite go 14-2 ATS since 1982. The home favorite was upset just once in those 16 playoff games. Play on the New England Patriots as a 10* Top Play selection.

Since the start of the 2012 season, the Carolina Panthers have gone an extremely profitable 15-5 ATS as an underdog of 2.5 or more, and they're not coming off a week of rest. The Panthers have gone 10-9-1 straight up in those contests as well. The Panthers have faced the Seahawks in each of the past two season, and although they lost in both games, the outcomes were in jeopardy throughout the entire games. This strongly suggests to me that the Panthers are one of the few teams in the NFL that stack up quite well versus Seattle.

Since the 1980 season, any away underdog with a winning percentage of .300 or more, versus an opponent which had allowed 6-points or less in each of their previous two games, has seen the away team go 25-6 ATS (80.6%). The away underdog also went 17-13-1 straight up on those contests. Play on the Carolina Panthers plus the points as a 10* Top Play selection.