Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-26-24 | Warriors -2.5 v. Heat | 113-92 | Win | 100 | 7 h 54 m | Show | |
Warriors @ Heat 7:40 ET Game# 535-536 Play On: Warriors -2.5 Miami has been a tad better on the road than at home this season. As a matter of fact, the Heat have lost 3 of their last 4 at home. Conversely, Golden State has gone 11-4 SU in their last 15 on the road. The Warriors are coming off losses in each of their previous 2. However, Golden State has gone 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 immediately following back-to-back losses and with an average victory margin of 11.0 points per game. The Warriors haven’t lost 3 straight games since 12/30/2023. Give me the Warriors minus points. |
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03-05-24 | Spurs v. Rockets -7.5 | Top | 101-114 | Win | 100 | 8 h 52 m | Show |
Spurs @ Rockets 8:10 PM ET Game# 525-526 Play On: Rockets -7.5 Houston is 7-0 SU&ATS this season as a home favorite of between 3.5 to 9.5 and with an average victory margin of 178.6 points per game. San Antonio are coming off 2 consecutive wins for just the 4th time this season while defeating Oklahoma City 132-118 and Indiana 117-105. However, the Spurs are an abysmal 0-9 SU&ATS this season as an away underdog of between 3.5 to 9.5 and were outscored by a massive average of 23.0 points per game. San Antonio is 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS this season immediately following 2 wins in a row. Give me Houston minus points. Give me the Rockets minus points. |
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03-03-24 | Clippers +1.5 v. Wolves | 89-88 | Win | 100 | 5 h 41 m | Show | |
Clippers @ Timberwolves 3:40 PM ET Game# 581-582 Play On: Clippers +1.5 Minnesota started the season by going 22-2 SU in their first 24 at home. Nevertheless, sinced then they’re only 5-5 SU on their home floor. The Clippers are 30-10 SU in their last 40 games and that includes 17-6 SU on the road. Los Angeles is coming off home games in each of their previous 3 outings. The Clippers are a perfect 7-0 SU&ATS this season immediately following playing their previous 3 on the road and won by an average of 15.9 points per game. Give me the Clippers plus points. |
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03-03-24 | Warriors v. Celtics -10.5 | 88-140 | Win | 100 | 5 h 41 m | Show | |
Warriors @ Celtics 3:40 PM ET Game# 583-584 Play On: Celtics -10.5 The oddsmakers are begging you to take the red-hot Golden State Warriors as an 11.0-point underdog. After all, the Warriors have gone 8-0 SU&ATS in their last 8 on the road. However, please keep in mind that their star point guard Stephen Curry is listed as questionable as he’s nursing bursitis in his right knee. Boston has won 10 in a row and covered each of their previous 5. During that 5-0 SU&ATS stretch, Boston outscored their opponents by an enormous 25.4 points per game. Boston has shot 50% or better in each of their last 9 and 12 of its previous 15 games. Give me the Celtics minus points. |
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03-01-24 | Mavs v. Celtics -9.5 | 110-138 | Win | 100 | 8 h 15 m | Show | |
Mavericks @ Celtics 7:40 PM ET Game# 555-556 Play On: Celtics -9.5 This line has moved from 7.5 to 9.5 due to the availability status of star point guard Luka Doncic who has both a sprained ankle and broken nose. Considering this will be the Mavs 3rd road game in 4 days and the finale of a 4-game in 6-day road trip, I would be surprised if Dallas doesn’t air on the side of caution and opt not to play Doncic. Conversely, Boston will be playing on 2 days rest, and this will be only their 2nd game in 6 days. The Celtics enter today riding an 8-game win streak. That includes covering each of their previous 4 while winning by a substantial margin of 24.7 points per game. During this current win streak, Boston has shot 51.8% or better on each occasion and also allowed 105 points or fewer on 5 of those occasions. They’ll be facing a Dallas team that allows 117.6 points per game and opponents have shot 48.2% against them this season. Boston is 27-3 SU at home this season while outscoring opponents by an average of 13.8 points per game. Saying they’ve been dominant on their own floor would be the vastest of understatements. Give me the Celtics minus points. |
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02-28-24 | Lakers +3.5 v. Clippers | 116-112 | Win | 100 | 7 h 54 m | Show | |
Lakers @ Clippers 10:10 PM ET Game# 533-534 Play On: Lakers +3.5 The Lakers are coming off a 123-113 loss at Phoenix. However, they’ve gone 3-0 SU in their last 3 following a loss and with an average victory margin of 10.3 points per game, and 2 of those wins came as an underdog. The Clippers are an uninspiring 3-4 and money-draining 1-6 ATS over their previous 7 games. That includes 2-3 SU and 0-5 ATS as a favorite. Give me the Lakers plus points. |
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02-28-24 | Mavs v. Raptors +3.5 | 136-125 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 25 m | Show | |
Mavericks @ Raptors 7:40 PM ET Game# 527-528 Play On: Raptors +3.5 Dallas will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days and is coming off last night’s disheartening 121-119 loss at Cleveland. I described that as disheartening because the Cavaliers his a 59-foot 3-point shot at the buzzer to steal that win. That usually will take an emotional toll on a team after sustaining such a brutal loss and I strongly believe that will be the case in this matchup. Toronto will be playing only their 2nd game in 5 days and has a decided advantage regarding rest. Toronto also enters tonight having gone 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3 games. Give me Toronto plus points. |
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02-27-24 | Heat -7 v. Blazers | Top | 106-96 | Win | 100 | 7 h 1 m | Show |
Trailblazers @ Heat 10:10 PM ET Game# 571-572 Play On: Heat -7.0 Portland is coming off a 93-80 home loss to Charlotte. The Trailblazers have gone an abysmal 0-7 SU&ATS this season as an underdog of 13.5 or less and after game in which they scored 95 points or fewer. The lost those 7 contests by an enormous margin of 26.6 points per game. Portland is also 0-6 SU&ATS in their last 6 contests and lost by an average of 14.0 points per game. Miami is coming off last night’s win at Sacramento. The Heat are 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 with all coming as a road underdog. Additionally, the heat have gone 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 as a favorite and won by 13.7 points per game. I have little concern about Miami playing with no rest this evening since they’re recently coming off the all-star break. Give me the Heat minus points. |
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02-23-24 | Bucks +4.5 v. Wolves | 112-107 | Win | 100 | 10 h 8 m | Show | |
Bucks @ Timberwolves 10:10 PM ET Game# 535-536 Play On: Bucks +4.5 This line makes little sense to me with Minnesota being just a short home favorite against a struggling Bucks team. Especially when considering, Minnesota walloped the Bucks 129-105 at Milwaukee just 2 weeks ago. When these types of situations occur, I am apt to having a contrarian mind set. Milwaukee is coming off back-to-back losses. However, the Bucks are 5-1 SU this season following losses in each of their previous 2 games. Minnesota is 4-0 SU&ATS in their previous 4 games played. The Timberwolves started the season 17-2 SU in their first 19 at home but have gone just 2-3 since. Milwaukee is coming off a disheartening loss to Memphis in their previous game as a massive 12.0-point home favorite. This will be just the 3rd game in the last 11 days for Milwaukee. Any NBA team that’s coming off a double-digit favorite SU loss and is playing in their 3rd game or less over the previous 10 days, has seen those teams go 28-6 SU (82.4%) since the start of the 1996-1997 season. The SU betting angle is significant since it backs the underdog in this specific matchup. Give me the Bucks plus points. |
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02-23-24 | Heat v. Pelicans -3.5 | 106-95 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 8 m | Show | |
Heat @ Pelicans 10:10 PM ET Game# 539-540 Play On: Pelicans-3.5 New Orleans is 6-0 SU&ATS this season as a non-conference home favorite of between 2.5 to 13.0 and won by a convincing average margin of 18.9 points per game. The Pelicans are coming off last night’s 127-105 blowout win over Houston. They’ve now won 4 in a row and 8 of their last 9. They’ve also won their previous 3 at home by a decisive margin of 22.3 points per game. Miami returns from the all-star break coming off road wins at Milwaukee and Philadelphia with both coming as an underdog. Those wins improved Miami’s season record to 30-25 (.545). Any NBA team like the Pelicans that is facing an opponent coming off back-to-back SU wins as an underdog, and that opponent has a win percentage of between .510 to .600, resulted in those teams like New Orleans going 63-26 ATS (70.8%) since the 19969-1997 season began. Give me the Pelicans minus points. |
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02-13-24 | Thunder v. Magic +3 | 127-113 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 16 m | Show | |
Thunder @ Magic 7:30 PM ET Game# 501-502 Play On: Orlando +3.0 Orlando is 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3 at home with an average margin of victory of 12.3 points per game. Orlando will be playing on 2 days rest and each of their previous 2 were at home. Since the start of last season, Orlando is 7-1 SU at home after playing each of their previous 2 at home, and they outscored their opponents in those 8 contests by 10.4 points per game. Conversely, Oklahoma City is 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 on the road and all came as a favorite while they were outscored by 19.7 points per contest. Give me the Magic plus points. |
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02-06-24 | Bucks v. Suns -3.5 | 106-114 | Win | 100 | 8 h 38 m | Show | |
Bucks @ Suns 10:10 PM ET Game# 583-584 Play On: Suns -3.5 Despite the head coaching change for the Bucks, something still feels off with them. Milwaukee is 0-3 ATS in their last 3 as an underdog and lost by an enormous 20.3 points per game. As a matter of fact, since the start of last season, the Bucks are an abysmal 4-15 ATS as an underdog of 6.0 or less and were outscored by an average of 12.0 points per game. The Suns are coming off a successful 4-3 road trip and they’re now 11-3 over their previous 14 contests. The Suns have shot 49% or better in 14 consecutive games in addition to 18 of their previous 20 contests. During their previous 4 the Bucks are allowing 118.0 points per game and permitted their opponents to shoot a combined 49.9%. Give me the Suns minus points. |
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02-06-24 | Thunder -3 v. Jazz | 117-124 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 48 m | Show | |
Thunder @ Jazz 9:10 PM ET Game# 581-582 Play On: Thunder -3.0 Oklahoma City has gone a profitable 4-1 SU&ATS in their last 5 on the road. The Thunder are 2-0 SU&ATS versus Utah this season while averaging 134.0 points scored per contest and shot 53.5% from the field. Utah is 3-6 in their last 9 and allowed 124.4 points scored per game while opponents shot 49.3% and make 41.3% of their 3-point shot attempts. The Thunder has shot 49.6% throughout their previous 5 while making 39.9% of their 3-point shot attempts. Give me the Thunder minus points. |
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02-06-24 | Magic +3.5 v. Heat | 95-121 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 19 m | Show | |
Magic @ Heat 7:40 PM ET Game# 577-578 Play On: Magic +3.5 Orlando has gone 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS during their previous 5 outings. Conversely, Miami is 2-8 SU&ATS over their previous 10 and that includes 1-5 SU&ATS during their last 6 at home. Give me the Magic plus points. |
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02-05-24 | Warriors v. Nets +1.5 | Top | 109-98 | Loss | -120 | 6 h 31 m | Show |
Warriors @ Nets 7:40 PM ET Game# 565-566 Play On: Nets +1.5 This is an attractive spot for the home team in this matchup as I see and diagnose it. This will be the Warriors 3rd road game in 4-days and they wasted a 62-point epic performance at Atlanta on Saturday while falling to the Hawks 141-131. Golden State is now 6-11 SU in their last 17 overall and 3-9 SU during their previous 12 road games. Since the start of last season, the Warriors are a dismal 5-18 SU on the road immediately following a road loss. Contrary to their opponent tonight, Brooklyn is a well-rested team that will be playing just their 3rd game in 7 days. Additionally, Brooklyn isn’t road weary considering 5 of their last 6 have been played at home. The Nets have won 3 of their last 4. During their previous 3 outings Brooklyn has scored 134.3 points per game and shot a red-hot 51.0%. Brooklyn has also made a stellar 39.1% of their 3-point shot attempts over their previous 5 games. All that is good news for Nets backers when considering Golden State has allowed 125.6 points per game over their last 5 while opponents knocked down 37.1% of their 3-point shots against them. Give me the Nets on the money line. |
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02-04-24 | Magic v. Pistons +7.5 | 111-99 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 7 m | Show | |
Magic @ Pistons 3:10 PM ET Game# 541-542 Play On: Pistons +7.0 Orlando will be playing in their 4th of a 5-game 9-day road trip. They’re coming off a 108-106 win at Minnesota who’s arguably the best team in the Western Conference. Up next is the finale of their road trip at division rival Miami on Tuesday. Sandwiched in between is the lowly Detroit Pistons who have an atrocious 6-42 season record. However, Detroit has gone 8-0 ATS in their last 8 as an underdog and won 2 of those games outright. The Pistons are coming off a 1369-125 home loss to the red-hot Los Angeles Clippers but still managed to cover as a 12.0-point underdog. Detroit is a perfect 5-0 ATS this season as an underdog after allowing 135 points or more in their previous game. Give me the Pistons plus points. |
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01-31-24 | Suns v. Nets +3.5 | 136-120 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 53 m | Show | |
Suns @ Nets 8:40 PM ET Game# 581-582 Play On: Nets +3.6 The Suns are unequivocally the better team in this matchup. However, I like the home underdog betting value in this specific spot. Phoenix will be playing their 5th of a 7-game 12-day road tripp that has saw them go 2-2 thus far. The Nets will be playing in their 3rd consecutive game at home, and they won the previous 2. The latest of which was a 147-114 thrashing of Uta on Monday night. Brooklyn has also gone a profitable 14-8 ATS (63.6%) at home this season. Give me the Nets plus points. |
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01-31-24 | Kings +1.5 v. Heat | 106-115 | Loss | -109 | 6 h 55 m | Show | |
Kings @ Heat 7:40 PM ET Game# 571-572 Play On: Kings +1.5 Miami has hit a brick wall recently while going 0-7 SU&ATS in their last 7 games and they were outscored in those outings by a substantial 16.3 points per outing. That includes 4 of those games taking pace at home. The Kings enter today on a 4-game win streak with the last 3 coming on the road. Sacramento has averaged a robust 120.6 points scored per game over their previous 10 contests and shot 50% or better 8 times. On the other hand, Miami has allowed 128.7 points per game and opponents have shot 54% over their previous 3 contests. The Heat have also averaged just a mere 101.1 points scored per game over their previous 10 contests. Give me the Kings plus points. |
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01-27-24 | Clippers v. Celtics -7.5 | 115-96 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 7 m | Show | |
Clippers @ Celtics 7:10 PM ET Game# 511-512 Play On: Celtics -7.5 The Clippers are coming off an impressive 127-107 road win over Toronto last night. The Clippers are 0-3 SU&ATS on the road this season when playing with no rest and they were an underdog on each occasion. Conversely, Boston is -0 SU this season when playing at home versus an opponent playing with no rest and with an average victory margin of 14.4 points per game. The Celtics are coming off a dominating performance during a 143-110 win at Miami on Thursday. Boston is 4-0 SU at home this season following a road win and outscored their opponents by a decisive 21.0 points per game. Furthermore, we need to think like an oddsmaker in this matchup. We have a Clippers team that’s been red-hot while going 12-2 SU and 11-3 ATS over their previous 15 contests. That includes a current 4-0 SU&ATS run in their last 4 with an average victory margin of 13.3 points per contest. Yet, here they are as a 7.5-point underdog. They’re giving us the winner. Give me Boston minus points. |
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01-26-24 | Cavs +6 v. Bucks | 112-100 | Win | 100 | 8 h 8 m | Show | |
Cavaliers @ Bucks 8:10 PM ET Game# 569-570 Play On: Cavaliers +6.0 The Cavaliers will be looking to atone for a 126-116 loss at Milwaukee on Wednesday that snapped their red-hot 8-game win streak. I love their chances of being able to do so and especially betting on them as a point-spread underdog in this spot. Cleveland has shot 50% or better in each of their previous 4 games. During their previous 3 meetings with Milwaukee this season, Cleveland averaged 120.3 points scored per game and shot a combined 52.2% from the field. Furthermore, the Bucks have allowed an average of 126.5 points per game throughout their previous 6 contests. Milwaukee has also allowed opponents to shoot 50% or better in 5 of their last 7 games. Give me the Cavaliers plus the points. |
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01-25-24 | Bulls +4.5 v. Lakers | 132-141 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 1 m | Show | |
Bulls @ Lakers 10:40 PM ET Game# 555-556 Play On: Bulls +4.5 Since winning the NBA In-Season Tournament, the Lakers have gone a dismal 8-14 SU which includes an uninspiring 6-6 at home. The Bulls aree coming off a gut-wrenching 115-113 loss at Phoenix in which they blew a 23-point 2nd half lead but still managed to cover as a 5.0-point underdog. Chicago is 3-0 SU in their last 3 and 7-1 during the previous 8 immediately following a loss. The Bulls are also 5-1 SU in their last 6 away games following a loss. Give me the Bulls plus the points. |
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01-25-24 | Nuggets v. Knicks +2.5 | 84-122 | Win | 100 | 7 h 1 m | Show | |
Nuggets @ Knicks 7:40 PM ET Game# 549-550 Play On: Knicks +2.5 The Knicks will be catching the Nuggets in the right time. Today will be Denver’s finale of a 5-game 10-day road trip. New York enters today riding a 4-game win streak and has also gone a red-hot 10-2 SU in their last 12. The Knicks defense has been superb over their previous 6 contests while allowing only 99.7 points per game. Additionally, the Knicks are 10-1 SU and 10-0-1 ATS at home this season when there’s a total of between 220.0 to 229.5 like it will be today. The Knicks are also 7-1 in their last 8 at home. This is an excellent betting value on the home underdog. Give me the Knicks plus points. |
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01-23-24 | Jazz +7 v. Pelicans | 124-153 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 27 m | Show | |
Jazz @ Pelicans 8:10 PM ET Game# 521-522 Play On: Jazz +7.0 New Orleans has gone just 4-5 SU and 36-6 ATS in their last 9 at home. Despite Utah losing their last 2, they’re still 12-4 SU and 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games. That includes 7-1 ATS in their last 8 away games. Throughout their previous 5 contests Utah has averaged an impressive 132.8 points scored per game while shooting 49.9% and 38.9% from 3-point territory. During that same 5-game span they posted a +8 rebound per game differential and shot a blistering hot 84.4% from the free throw line with an alarmingly high average of 34 attempts per contest. Conversely, New Orleans has allowed 118.6 points per contest while permitting opponents to shoot 48.0% and make 39.9% of their 3-point shot attempts. Give me Utah plus the points. |
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01-23-24 | Blazers v. Thunder -13 | 109-111 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 24 m | Show | |
Trailblazers @ Thunder 8:10 PM ET Game# 523-524 Play On: Thunder -13.0 When it comes to NBA double-digit point-spreads I usually steer clear of handicapping those contests, and if I do it’s because I’m looking to take the underdog. However, this specific matchup is an exception. Portland is 0-5 SU&ATS in their last 5 as a road double-digit underdog and they were outscored by an enormous average of 33.2 points per game. On the other hand, we have an Oklahoma City team which has gone 6-0 SU&ATS in their last 6 at home with an average margin of victory coming by 21.0 points per game. Give me the Thunder minus points. Additionally, Oklahoma City will be playing on 2 days of rest. The Thunder are 5-0 SU&ATS this season as a home favorite when playing on 2 or more days rest and won by an average of 15.8 points per contest. Give me the Thunder minus points. |
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01-22-24 | Bulls +5 v. Suns | 113-115 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
Bulls @ Suns 9:10 PM ET Game# 513-514 Play On: Bulls +5.5 The Suns are coming off last night’s 117-110 home win iver Indiana which improved their current unbeaten streak to 5 games in a row. However, NBA teams which have won 5 or more in a row are playing with no rest are a poor 37-56 SU since the start of the 2019-2020 season. Furthermore, if those teams were playing at home they were just 13-21 SU and that includes 1-8 this season. Chicago enters tonight having gone 6-2 SU in their last 8 games. Chicago is also a respectable 6-5 SU and 7-4 ATS in their previous 11 played on the road. Additionally, Chicago is 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 this season when playing on 1 or more days rest and when facing an opponent with no rest with a +8.3 point per game differential. Give me the Bulls plus points. |
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01-19-24 | Hawks v. Heat -6.5 | 109-108 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 30 m | Show | |
Hawks @ Heat 8:10 PM ET Game# 539-540 Play On: Heat -6.5 Atlanta is coming off home wins in their last 2 games. Nonetheless, the Hawks are 0-4 SU&ATS in their last 4 after recording wins in their previous 2 contests and they lost by an average of 15.5 points per game. Atlanta has also gone 0-7 SU&ATS in their last 7 this season as an underdog of 3.0 or greater and they were outscored by 14.8 points per contest. Miami is coming off an embarrassing 121-97 loss at Toronto in their previous outing and they allowed the Raptors to shoot 51.1%. The Heat is 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 following a game in which they allowed an opponent to shoot 50% or better. Furthermore, Miami han’t allowed opponents to shoot 50% or better in 2 straight for 21 consecutive games. Miami is 9-0 SU and 6-3 ATS versus fellow Southeast Division teams this season. The Heat are also 8-1 SU and 6-3 ATS in their last 9 following a loss. Give me the Heat minus points. |
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01-16-24 | Kings +4.5 v. Suns | Top | 117-119 | Win | 100 | 6 h 23 m | Show |
Kings @ Suns 9:10 PM ET Game# 571-572 Play On: Kings +4.5 The Suns are a disappointing 21-18 this season and that includes an extremely uninspiring 11-11 at home. Phoenix will be facing an opponent tonight in the Sacramento Kings averaging 118.2 points scored per game. That’s a significant statistic since Phoenix has gone an abysmal 0-10 ATS this season when facing teams that average 116.0 or more points scored per game and were outscored by 10.8 points per contest. Phoenix is only forcing 12 turnovers per game this season. That’s also noteworthy since Sacramento is 9-1 ATS this season versus teams that force an average of 13 turnovers or less per game and they outscored those opponents by 6.0 points per contest. Lastly, dating back to last season, Sacramento is 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 versus Phoenix while outscoring them by an average of 10.0 points per game. Give me the Kings plus the points. |
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01-12-24 | Pelicans v. Nuggets -8 | 113-125 | Win | 100 | 9 h 47 m | Show | |
Pelicans @ Nuggets 10:10 PM ET Game# 515-516 Play On: Nuggets -8.0 This line jumped right off the board at me. Granted the Nuggets are the defeding world champions. However, New Orleans has gone 7-0 SU&ATS in their last 7 road games. They’re begging to take the underdog in this spot but I’m not taking the bait and will go the opposite way. It must be noted, New Orleans has listed 4 of their top 5 scorers as questionable in this contest and those 4 players average a combined 77.2 points scored per game. Denver is coming off a disappointing 124-111 loss at Utah. Nevertheless, Denver is 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 immediately after a loss and they won by an average of 17.0 points per game. Give me Denver minus the points. |
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01-11-24 | Celtics +4.5 v. Bucks | Top | 102-135 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 34 m | Show |
Celtics @ Bucks 7:40 PM ET Game# 571-572 Play On: Celtics +4.5 The Bucks are an impressive 16-3 at home this season. However, they lost their last 2 in Milwaukee to Utah 132-116 and Indiana 122-113. As a matter of fact, the Bucks are 1-4 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last 5 overall. The Celtics find themselves as an underdog for just the 2nd time all season. Since the start of last season, Boston is 9-1 ATS and 6-4 SU as an underdog. All 4 of those SU losses came by 6 points or fewer and by a combined 15 points. Their lone time as an underdog this season, they were +3.0 at Sacramento and won 144-119. Give me the Celtics plus points. |
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12-28-23 | Heat v. Warriors -3.5 | 114-102 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 47 m | Show | |
Heat @ Warriors 10:10 PM ET Game# 545-546 Play On: Warriors -3.5 This pick is more about positives for the Warriors than negatives applied to Miami. Golden State began this season by losing 6 of their first 7 at home. The Warriors have since rebounded to win 8 consecutive home games. Additionally, since the start of the 2021-2022 season, Golden State is 40-21 ATS at home when facing an opponent like Miami that possesses a winning record and with a respectable +8.0 per game point differential. Lastly, Golden State has averaged 123.8 points scored per game and shot a red-hot 49.9% over their previous 5 contests. Give me the Warriors minus points. |
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12-28-23 | Pacers v. Bulls +1.5 | 120-104 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 47 m | Show | |
Pacers @ Bulls 8:10 PM ET Game# 537-538 Play On: Bulls +1.5 These are teams that are headed down opposite paths right now. Indiana has gone 2-6 SU&ATS in their last 8 games with 1 of those wins coming over Detroit (2-28) who’s currently on a 27-game losing streak. The Pacers have allowed opponents to shoot 51% or better in 8 of their last 10 contests. Indiana is coming off a road win over Houston. However, the Pacers are 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 following a win. Conversely, Chicago is 9-4 SU and 11-2 ATS over their last 11 games. The Bulls are also 5-0 ATS and 4-1 SU in their previous 5 games as an underdog. Chicago comes off a 118-113 win over Atlanta in a game they closed as a 1.0-point home underdog. The Bulls are 9-2 SU since the start of last season following a game in which they won SU as a home underdog, and that includes 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3 this season when cast into that identical role. Give me the Bulls. |
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12-26-23 | Wolves +2.5 v. Thunder | 106-129 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 57 m | Show | |
Timberwolves @ Thunder 8:10 PM ET Game# 505-506 Play On: Timberwolves +2.5 Oklahoma City averages just 23 free throw attempts per game this season and that’s a significant note as it applies to this matchup. Conversely, Minnesota has gone a perfect 17-0 SU this season versus opponents that average 24 or fewer free throw attempts per game and with an average victory margin of 13.6 points per contest. Another worthwhile fact as it applies to today’s game. The Timberwolves have made a red-hot 40.5% of their 3-point shot attempts over their previous 5 while the Thunder has allowed team to make 39.8% of their 3-point shot attempts throughout their previous 5 contests. Additionally, Minnesota enters today having gone 21-4 during their previous 5 games. Give me the Timberwolves plus points. |
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12-20-23 | Lakers v. Bulls +4.5 | 108-124 | Win | 100 | 7 h 2 m | Show | |
Lakers @ Bulls 8:10 PM ET Game# 545-546 Play On: Bulls +4.5 The Lakers have dropped 3 of their last 4 and failed to cover on each occasion. Conversely, Chicago is 6-3 SU and 8-1 ATS during their previous 9 games. The Bulls have shot an impressive 39.5% from 3-point territory over their last 5 contests. That’s good news as it applies to this matchup considering the Lakers 3-points defense has left much to be desired over their last 5 while opponents have made 38.9% of those long-distance attempts against them. The great equalizer for an underdog is their ability to make 3-point shots at a high percentage. This will be a textbook example of such. Give me the Bulls plus points. |
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12-19-23 | Celtics v. Warriors +6 | 126-132 | Win | 100 | 7 h 19 m | Show | |
The Celtics are a perfect 14-0 at home this season. However, on the road they've gone just 6-5 SU and 2-7-2 ATS. As a matter of fact, Boston is 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 away games and was a favorite on each occasion. Golden State began the season by losing 6 of their first 7 at home. Since that time, they've captured 5 home wins in a row. Give me the Warriors plus points. |
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12-17-23 | Magic v. Celtics -8.5 | 97-114 | Win | 100 | 4 h 13 m | Show | |
I used Boston on Friday night as a home favorite over Orlando and they easily won and covered. I'm coming right back with them today. The Celtics are 13-0 SU and 8-3-2 ATS at home this season while outscoring opponents by 15.5 points per game. The Celtics have shot 50% or better in 8 of their last 10 at home. Conversely, Orlando is 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 away and allowed opponents to score 121 points or more and shoot 50% or better on each occasion. Orlando is a terrific 11-1 at home this season but just 5-7 on the road. Give me the Celtics minus points. |
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12-15-23 | Knicks v. Suns -4.5 | 139-122 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 57 m | Show | |
Knicks @ Suns 10:10 PM ET Game# 547-548 Play On: Suns -4.5 I faded the Suns on Wednesday against Brooklyn and cashed that winning ticket. Nonetheless, I am betting on them tonight and without the least bit of hesitancy. This will be just the 2nd time this season that Phoenix will have their terrific trio of Bradley Beal, Devin Booker, and Kevin Durant all available at the same time. I look for that to be a more telling factor than the debut in Wednesday’s home loss. Besides, the Knicks are 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 on the road and were outcored by an average of 12.7 points per game. New York’s defensive play has been horrible throughout their previous 5 contests as they allowed 126.4 points per game and opponents shot a combined 49.4% which includes 39.4% from 3-point territory. Give me the Suns minus points. |
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12-15-23 | Magic v. Celtics -5.5 | 111-128 | Win | 100 | 7 h 28 m | Show | |
Magic @ Celtics 7:40 PM ET Game# 541-542 Play On: Celtics -5.5 Despite Orlando beating Boston 4 consecutive times dating back to last season and being a vastly improved team this season with a current record of 16-7, they still find themselves as a sizable road underdog in this spot. I find this current point-spread to be justified and am not swayed by the Magic’s recent success versus Boston. Keeping Orlando’s fast start to this 2023-2024 campaign into perspective, they’ve done much of their damage at home where they’re 11-1 SU and 10-2 ATS. On the road they’re a mediocre 5-6 SU. Conversely, Boston is 12-0 SU at home with a dominating average victory margin of 15.3 points per game. Give me the Celtics minus points. |
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12-15-23 | Pacers v. Wizards +9 | 123-137 | Win | 100 | 7 h 58 m | Show | |
Pacers @ Wizards 7:10 PM ET Game# 535-536 Play On: Wizards +9.0 To be a successful sports bettor there are times it requires making an uncomfortable wager. This is a textbook example of such. The Wizards are a terrible team that comes into this Eastern Conference matchup with an abysmal 3-20 record. However, this sets up to be a favorable situation to get inside this sizable number as a home underdog. One thing that’s been respectable for Washington has been their play on the offensive side of the floor. The Wizards have averaged 115.2 points scored per game and shot 48.2% from the field this season. The major weakness of an otherwise impressive young Pacers team is their shoddy defensive play. That’s especially evident when Indiana is on the road where they’re allowing 132.6 points per game while allowing opponents to shoot a blistering 52.6% from the field. Furthermore, over their last 5 road games, Indiana has allowed 137.2 points per outing and all those opponents shot 53% or better from the field. Lastly, Indiana is coming off a 140-126 divisional loss at Milwaukee, and they’re 0-7 ATS following a divisional game this season. It’s also worth noting, they were outscored in those 7 contests by a substantial margin of 14.5 points per game. Give me the Wizards plus points. |
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12-13-23 | Nets +2.5 v. Suns | 116-112 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show | |
Nets @ Suns 9:10 PM ET Game# 517-518 Play On: Nets +2.5 The Suns are an uninspiring 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games. Phoenix will be facing a Brooklyn team that has shot 47.3% from the field this season. The Suns are an atrocious 1-11 ATS and 3-9 SU this season when facing opponents with a season offensive field goal percentage of 46.0% or better. The Nets have been an extremely profitable 16-5-1 ATS this season which includes 6-3 ATS on the road. Additionally, Brooklyn is coming off Monday’s 131-118 at Sacramento and that is significant. The Nets are 8-1 ATS this season following a SU loss and with a +4.1 point per game differential. Lastly, since the beginning of last season, Brooklyn is 15-2 SU in December and Phoenix is 7-14 SU. Give me the Nets plus points. |
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12-11-23 | Wolves v. Pelicans -3.5 | 107-121 | Win | 100 | 7 h 26 m | Show | |
Timberwolves @ Pelicans 8:10 PM ET Game# 555-556 Play On: Pelicans -3.5 This is another fishy line with all being considered and even with star guard Anthony Edwards listed as questionable to play. Minnesota is coming off a 127-103 blowout win at Memphis which extended their win streak to 6-games and they’re also on a red-hot 16-2 winning run. Yet, they’re an underdog against a New Orleans team which is coming off an embarrassing 133-89 loss to the Lakers in the NBA In-Season Tournament Semifinal. However, New Orleans is 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3 at home following a loss in their previous contest and won by a substantial margin of 22.3 points per game. Give me the Pelicans minus points. |
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12-11-23 | Nuggets v. Hawks +2.5 | 129-122 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 56 m | Show | |
Nuggets @ Hawks 7:40 PM ET Game# 545-546 Play On: Hawks +2.5 Like many reigning NBA championship teams before them, the Denver Nuggets have a bullseye on their head. Teams have used that emotional advantage quite well when hosting the Nuggets this season. Denver is 9-1 SU at home but a below average 5-8 on the road. This current line showing Denver has a small favorite versus an Atlanta team which is 0-3 in their last 3 and 3-8 during their previous 11 games speaks loudly to me. I am listening. Give me the Hawks plus points. |
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12-11-23 | Cavs +1.5 v. Magic | 94-104 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 27 m | Show | |
Cavaliers @ Magic 7:10 PM ET Game# 539-540 Play On: Cavaliers +1.5 This point-spread jumped right off the screen at me. We have an Orlando team which is 10-1 at home this season and outscoring those visiting opponents by a decisive margin of 14.5 points per game, and here they are as just a short favorite. Not to mention, Orlando is on a current 8-game home win streak. However, the Cavaliers are 7-3 on the road this season and that includes 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road tilts. These teams met last Wednesday in Cleveland and the Cavaliers walked away with a 121-111 win despite Orlando being awarded 37 free throw attempts. The Cavaliers are a much better defensive team than Orlando and they’ve allowed 105 points or fewer in 5 of their last 6 games. Give me the Cavaliers plus points. |
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12-09-23 | Pacers v. Lakers -4 | 109-123 | Win | 100 | 10 h 14 m | Show | |
Lakers vs. Pacers 8:30 PM ET Game# 535-536 Play On: Lakers -4.0 The Lakers have gone 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 as a favorite and won by a decisive margin of 23.0 points per game. Los Angeles is also 8-1 ATS in their last 9 as a favorite of 2.0 or greater. The difference in this matchup is the Lakers are far superior on the defensive side of the floor than Indiana. The Pacers have allowed 111 points or more in every game this season. Conversely, the Lakers have allowed 110 points or fewer in 13 of their 23 games. As a matter of fact, the Pacers are allowing 124.9 points per game but have been able to get away with it on many occasions during a 12-8 start because they also average 128.4 points per contest. When it comes to big games in any sport my tendency is to lean toward the team that’s better defensively. This is a textbook example of such. For those unaware, this is the Finals of the NBA In-Season Tournament with the winning team awarded $500,000 being awarded to each player. Furthermore, the Lakers are the more experienced team and have players who have been in big games such as these much more than those of the Pacers. Give me the Lakers minus points. |
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12-08-23 | Rockets v. Nuggets -8.5 | 114-106 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 46 m | Show | |
Rockets @ Nuggets 9:10 PM ET Game# 521-522 Play On: Nuggets -8.5 Considering the Rockets have shown to be a much-improved team in the early going of this season, this appears as a very heavy line which makes it alluring to take the underdog. Nonetheless, I just can’t ignore the home/away dichotomies in this matchup. Houton is an outstanding 9-1 SU at home but an abysmal 0-8 SU on the road. On the other hand, Denver is an uninspiring 5-8 SU on the road but an unbeaten 9-0 SU at home where they’ve outscored opponents by an average of 11.0 points per game. The Nuggets are coming off 2 losses in a row with both coming on the road versus the Kings and Clippers. However, the defending world champions haven’t lost 3 straight games all season and are 2-0 SU&ATS immediately following back-to-back losses. Give me the Nuggets minus points. |
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12-08-23 | Warriors +3 v. Thunder | 136-138 | Win | 100 | 9 h 46 m | Show | |
Warriors @ Thunder 8:10 PM ET Game# 517-518 Play On: Warriors +3.0 These teams have already met 3 times this season and the visitors are unscathed 3-0 during those matchups. The Warriors are certainly off to a disappointing start to the season. Nevertheless, they’re a money-making 7-3 ATS on the road. The upstart Thunder are just 2-3 in their last 5 games. During that stretch, they’re allowing opponents to attempt 33 free throw attempts per games and make an alarmingly high 38% of their 3-point shot attempts. Conversely, throughout their last 5 contests Golden State is averaging 28 free throws per contest while making a stellar 81% of those attempts. During that identical 5-game span, the Warriors have made an impressive 39.6% of their 3-point shot attempts. During their first 3 meetings against Oklahoma City, Golden State averaged an extremely high 15.7 offensive rebounds per game which equates to a better than average amount of multiple offensive possessions. Give me the Warriors plus points. |
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12-02-23 | Nuggets v. Kings -4.5 | 117-123 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show | |
Nuggets @ Kings 10:10 PM ET Game# 551-552 Play On: Kings -4.5 The defending NBA champion Denver Nuggets have seeming got back into a groover of late after going into a short tailspin. The Nuggets are 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 and with an average victory margin of 9.7 points per game. Yet they find themselves as an underdog against a Kings team that’s coming off a 14-point home loss. Here’s the catch. Denver played last night in Phoenix and this will be their 3rd game in 4 days and 6th in 9 days. The Kings will be playing on 2 days of rest and this will only be their 4th game in 9 days. Additionally, that previously mentioned home loss to the Clippers snapped a 5-game home win streak for Sacramento. I look for them to get back on track tonight especially with a sizable rest advantage on their side. Give me the Kings minus points. |
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11-30-23 | Pacers +2.5 v. Heat | 132-142 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 38 m | Show | |
Pacers @ Heat 7:40 PM ET Game# 503-504 Play On: Pacers +2.5 Indiana is coming off a stunning 114-110 home loss to Portland in a game they closed as a 12.0-point favorite. However, the Pacers have only dropped back-to-back games once this season and the last time it occurred was way back on 11/1. As a matter of fact, Indiana has gone a perfect 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 immediately following a loss and won by an average of 16.0 points per game. The Pacers have been a dynamic offensive team thus far and have averaged 127.6 points scored per game while also shooting a red-hot 50.3% from the field. Conversely, Miami is 0-3 SU in their last 3 and during those contests they allowed opponents to shoot 50.6%. Five me the Pacers plus points. |
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11-26-23 | Raptors +1.5 v. Cavs | 102-105 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
Raptors @ Cavaliers 7:00 PM ET Game# 525-526 Play On: Raptors +1.5 The Raptors have shot the ball extremely well of late and Cleveland has been porous defensively over their last 2 games. Toronto has averaged 121.4 points scored per contest and shot 51.9% throughout their previous 2 games. Conversely, Toronto is coming off 2 consecutive home losses in which they allowed 125.0 points per contest, permitted their opponents to shoot 52.3%, and was -7 rebounds per game. Give me the Raptors plus points. |
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11-25-23 | Heat v. Nets -3.5 | 97-112 | Win | 100 | 7 h 21 m | Show | |
Heat @ Nets 6:10 PM ET Game# 503-504 Play On: Nets -3.5 Miami (10-6) has won 9 of their last 11, and Brooklyn (6-8) is on a current 3-game losing streak. Yet, it’s the Nets that come up favorite in this spot which jumped off the page at me. However, after careful examination I can see precisely why the line is set where it is and a compelling case can be made for the home favorite. Miami will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days. The Heat suffered a 2-point loss to New York at Madison Square Garden last night in which they mounted a furious rally from a 21-point deficit and just fell short. In doing so, Miami expended a lot of energy and now will play today on less than 24 hours of rest. Conversely, Brooklyn will be playing on 2 days of rest. This marks just the 4th time this season that the Nets are installed as a favorite. That’s significant because Brooklyn is 3-0 SU&ATS as a favorite this season with an average victory margin of 13.3 points per game. Give me the Nets minus points. |
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11-24-23 | Nuggets v. Rockets +3 | Top | 86-105 | Win | 100 | 7 h 19 m | Show |
Nuggets @ Rockets 8:10 PM ET Game# 567-568 Play On: Rockets +3.0 The defending NBA champion Denver Nuggets are just 3-4 SU and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games. Denver is a perfect 7-0 at home this season, but they’re an uninspiring 3-5 SU on the road and includes a dreadful 1-7 ATS in those contests. Since losing their home opener, Houston has gone an unscathed 7-0 SU&ATS at home with 4 of those coming as an underdog. Their average margin of victory in those contests came by a decisive 16.0 points per game. Give me the Rockets plus points. |
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11-22-23 | Grizzlies v. Rockets -4.5 | 91-111 | Win | 100 | 8 h 48 m | Show | |
Grizzlies @ Rockets 8:10 PM ET Game# 545-546 Play On: Rockets -4.5 Memphis is off to a horrible 3-10 start to the season. Additionally, 2 of their 3 wins came over Portland and San Antonio who are currently a combined 6-22. Houston comes off a recently completed 0-3 road trip. However, those defeats came by a combined 8 points, and they covered on each occasion as an underdog. This will be just the 3rd time this season that Houston is installed as a favorite and they covered each of those situations. The Rockets are also 6-1 SU&ATS at home this season with a decisive +11.6 point per game differential. Give me the Rockets minus points. |
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11-21-23 | Blazers v. Suns -12.5 | 107-120 | Win | 100 | 8 h 59 m | Show | |
Trailblazers @ Suns 9:10 PM ET Game# 523-524 Play On: Suns -12.5 This is one of those rare instances that I’m willing to side with an NBA double-digit favorite. Portland has lost 7 straight which includes failing to cover their last 4 and losing being outscored by an average of 21.3 points per game. Throughout that 4-game stretch they averaged a mere 95.0 points scored per contest and shot a miserable 39.9%. During the past 3 seasons, Portland is 1-10 ATS after scoring 95 points or fewer in their previous contest and they were outscored by an average of 23.0 points per game. The Suns will enter this Pacific Division contest on a 3-game win streak while averaging 134.7 points scored per game and they shot a combined 53.5%. Phoenix has also made a sizzling hot 44% of their 3-point shot attempts throughout their last 5 games. Give me the Suns minus points. |
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11-21-23 | Cavs +8 v. 76ers | 122-119 | Win | 100 | 6 h 19 m | Show | |
Cavaliers @ 76ers 7:30 PM ET Game# 519-520 Play On: Cavaliers +8.0 After a disappointing start to the season, Cleveland has begun to right the ship while having won their last 3. The latest of which was a 121-109 win over defending NBA champion Denver. During this current win streak, they shot 51.2% or better on all 3 occasions. Philly is coming off 2 straight road win over Atlanta 126-116 and Brooklyn 121-99. However, they’ve lost their last 2 at home. Any NBA underdog of between 3.5 to 9.0 that scored 120 points or more in their previous game, and they’re facing an opponent that scored 120 points or greater in each of their previous 2 contests, resulted in those underdogs going 31-11 ATS (73.8%) during the previous 3 seasons. Give me the Cavaliers plus points. |
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11-17-23 | Rockets v. Clippers -7.5 | 100-106 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 8 m | Show | |
Rockets @ Clippers 10:40 PM ET Game# 541-542 Play On: Clippers -7.5 Taking the red-hot sizable road underdog Rockets who’s won 6 in a row versus an ice-cold Clippers team that’s on a 6-game losing streak qualifies as my designated sucker play of the day. Houston has played 7 of their first 9 games at home. During their current 6-0 SU&ATS run all have been played at home. The Rockets are 0-2 SU&ATS on the road and lost by an average of 17.0 points per game. The Clippers played 5 of 6 on the road during their current winless streak. However, at home, Los Angeles has gone 3-1 SU&ATS with an average +16.0 points per game differential. This line opened at 6.0 and at the time of this writing is 7.5 or 8.0 depending on what sportsbook you are looking at. If it looks too good to be true when it pertains to sports betting, it usually is. Give me the Clippers minus points. |
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11-16-23 | Nets +3.5 v. Heat | 115-122 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 1 m | Show | |
Nets @ Heat 7:40 PM ET Game# 519-520 Play On: Nets +3.5 Yes, Miami is on a 6-game win streak. However, all 6 of those wins have come by 8 points or fewer. So, it’s not like they’ve been winning decisively during this current hot run. The Heat are 3-1 SU at home but failed to cover on each of those 4 occasions. Additionally, in their only game versus Brooklyn this season they lost 109-105 as a 6.5-point home favorite. Brooklyn is a mediocre 6-5 to start the season. Nevertheless, they’ve gone an extremely profitable 9-1-1 ATS during those 11 contests. Brooklyn has held all 11 of their opponents to less than 50% shooting. They’ve been especially stout defensively over their previous 4 contests while holding teams to 103.0 points scored per game and just 41.1% shooting. Give me the Nets plus points. |
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11-15-23 | Wolves v. Suns -6 | 115-133 | Win | 100 | 8 h 58 m | Show | |
Timberwolves @ Suns 9:10 PM ET Game# 511-512 Play On: Suns -6.0 This is an extremely fishy line with all being considered. Minnesota is on an 7-game win streak including coming off back-to-back wins at Golden State. Keep in mind, their win over the Warriors last night saw a brawl break out in the first 2 minutes of the game which resulted in 3 players being ejected and may cause a possible suspension or 2 which has yet to be determined. Then we have the Suns who have lost 4 in a row at home. Yet, it’s Phoenix that’s a sizable home favorite tonight. The sportsbooks are begging you to take the red-hot underdog in this spot. I’m going to reject that temptation. Give me the Suns minus points. |
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11-15-23 | Celtics -4.5 v. 76ers | 117-107 | Win | 100 | 6 h 29 m | Show | |
Celtics @ 76ers 7:40 PM ET Game# 503-504 Play On: Celtics -4.5 These teams have played once this season and it occurred at Philadelphia last Wednesday with Philadelphia winning 106-103 as a 2.5-point home underdog. Well, the oddsmakers seem undeterred by that result based on the Celtics opening as a 3.5-point road favorite and they quickly moved to 4.5. Since that loss, Boston has gone 3-0 SU&ATS with an average victory margin of 17.7 points per game. The 76ers will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days with the previous 2 at home versus Indiana in which they went 1-1. The 76ers expended a ton of energy in those 2 contests against a Pacers team that pushes the pedal to the metal regarding pace. Give me the Celtics minus points. |
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11-14-23 | Pacers +5.5 v. 76ers | 132-126 | Win | 100 | 6 h 47 m | Show | |
Pacers @ 76ers 7:10 ET Game# 563-564 Play On: Pacers +5.5 These team played in Philadelphia on Tuesday and the 76ers walked away with a 137-26 win while also covering as a 7.0-point favorite. Yet, the 76ers opened as a 6.5-point favorite for today’s game and now they’re down to 5.0 despite them going 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 outings. The Pacers are very good offensively and to steal a boxing adage they give us a puncher’s chance as a result. Throughout their previous 6 contests, Indiana has averaged a robust 130.5 points scored per game and shot 51.7% from the field. Give me the Pacers plus points. |
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11-09-23 | Bucks v. Pacers +3 | 124-126 | Win | 100 | 7 h 33 m | Show | |
Bucks @ Pacers 7:10 PM ET Game# 501-502 Play On: Pacers +3.0 Milwaukee is 5-2 to start the season. However, 4 of those 5 wins have come by 5 points or fewer and with the line exception being a 122-114 home victory over Miami. As a matter of fact, despite their 5-2 record, the Bucks are a -2.3 points per game differential and a -7.1 rebound per game differential. Additionally, throughout their previous 4 contests they’re an abysmal -12.3 rebound per game differential. The Bucks offense has been as explosive as it’s been in recent years. However, their play at the defensive end of the floor has been terrible. Indiana will be playing the finale of a 5-game homestand today. The Pacers have been victorious in their last 2 with blowout wins over Utah 134-118 and San Antonio 152-111. The Pacers are 5-3 and 0.5 games behind Milwaukee in the standings, yet they have a superior point per game differential of +4.8 compared to the Bucks -2.3. Any NBA home team like Indiana that’s coming off 2 or more home wins in a row, versus an opponent like Milwaukee that’s coming off a home win in which they scored 110 points or greater, resulted in those home teams going 55-19 SU since the 2019-2020 season. The SU betting angle takes on added significance because it backs the underdog in this spot. Give me the +Pacers plus points. |
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11-08-23 | Raptors +4.5 v. Mavs | 127-116 | Win | 100 | 7 h 19 m | Show | |
Raptors @ Mavericks 8:40 PM ET Game# 573-574 Play On: Toronto +4.5 Despite being 6-1 to starts this season which includes 3-0 at home, Dallas finds itself as just a 4.5-point favorite versus a 3-4 Toronto team. Furthermore, this line opened at 6.0 and has come down to 4.5 even with most individual bets and money going the way of Dallas. This will only the 3rd game in 7 days for Toronto. Conversely, Dallas will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days. The Mavericks are a very talented team, but their defensive play leaves much to be desired and should rear its ugly head even more so when playing against an opponent with a clear advantage in terms of rest. Give me the Raptors plus points. |
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11-02-23 | Raptors v. 76ers -8 | 99-114 | Win | 100 | 7 h 25 m | Show | |
Raptors @ 76ers 7:10 PM ET Game# 555-556 Play On: 76ers -8.0 I had Toronto last night and that result was never in doubt from the start has they blew out Milwaukee 130-11 as a 5.0-point home underdog. However, I don’t like this sport at all for them tonight. Toronto will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days. Additionally, they’ll be facing an opponent in Philadelphia which will be playing with 3 days rest since their last game. These teams met in Toronto last week and Philadelphia walked away with a 114-107 win despite Toronto making 53.1% of their 3-point shot attempts. I will go out on a limb and say the Raptors won’t come anywhere close to that in this one. Give me the 76ers minus points. |
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11-01-23 | Kings v. Warriors -7 | 101-102 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 23 m | Show | |
Kings @ Warriors 10:10 PM ET Game# 551-552 Play On: Warriors -7.0
No analysis on NBA picks today due to time constraints. |
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11-01-23 | Bucks v. Raptors +5.5 | 111-130 | Win | 100 | 6 h 24 m | Show | |
Bucks @ Raptors 7:10 PM ET Game# 531-532 Play On: Raptors +5.5
No analysis on NBA picks today due to time constraints. |
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06-09-23 | Nuggets v. Heat +3.5 | 108-95 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 3 m | Show | |
Nuggets @ Heat 8:30 PM ET Game# 519-520 Play On: Heat +3.5 (10*) Miami is coming off Wednesday’s 109-94 home loss in Game 3. As expected, there’s been a ton of bets and money placed on Denver in today’s Game 4 based on what the public just witnessed 2 days ago. We have seen this act before where bettors kick Miami right in the teeth when they’re down and presumably on life support. On most occasions the Heat have responded in a big way to those situations and especially so when playing at home. Specifically speaking, Miami is 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 at home immediately following a loss in their previous game. That includes 3-0 ATS and 2-1 SU if they were a home underdog. NBA Playoffs home underdogs of 4.0 or less that are playing in Round 2 or beyond like Miami that are coming off a home SU&ATS loss, and they’re down 2-1 in a series, resulted in those home underdogs of 4.0 or less going 5-0 SU&ATS since the 2003 postseason. Those underdogs not only covered on each occasion, and but won all 5 contests SU and by an average of 8.4 points per game. Give me the Miami Heat plus points. |
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06-04-23 | Heat +8.5 v. Nuggets | 111-108 | Win | 100 | 29 h 19 m | Show | |
Heat @ Nuggets 8:00 PM ET Game# 515-516 Play On: Heat +8.5 (5*) The Heat barely missed covering in Game 1 despite attempting only 2 free throws and shooting a miserable 40.6% from the field. Miami amassed 96 field goal attempts in that opening game loss and that’s significant. The Heat are 11-1 SU this season after attempting 93 or more field goal attempts during regulation time in their previous game. That improves to 6-0 SU if they lost that previous game, and they outscored those 6 opponents by an average of 8.5 points per contest. Those SU results take on added betting value when considering Miami is currently an 8.5-point underdog in Game 2. Furthermore, Miami has gone 4-0 SU in their last 4 this postseason following a game in which they shot 45.7% or worse. As a matter of fact, they shot a red-hot 52.7% in those 4 wins. Miami was just 13-39 from 3-point territory in Game 1. Nevertheless, they finished that contest 7-15 from beyond the 3-point line after starting the contest 6-24. Give me the Miami Heat plus points. |
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06-01-23 | Heat v. Nuggets -8.5 | 93-104 | Win | 100 | 33 h 41 m | Show | |
Heat @ Nuggets 8:30 PM ET Game# 513-514 Play On: Denver -8.5 (5*) Since the start of the 2021-2022 NBA season, Denver has gone an unscathed 6-0 SU&ATS versus Miami. The Nuggets are also 8-0 SU at home during these 2023 NBA Playoffs with an average victory margin of 12.0 points per game. Additionally, Miami is coming off a grueling and emotional 7 game series win over Boston that just ended on Monday night in which they nearly squandered a commanding 3-0 series lead. Conversely, Denver will be playing on 9 days rest after completing a 4-game sweep of the Los Angeles Lakers in the Western Conference Finals. The Nuggets will obviously have a huge advantage in terms of rest and preparation heading into Game 1 of the 2023 NBA Finals. Since 2004, NBA Finals Game 1 home favorites like Denver have gone an extremely profitable 16-2 SU and 15-3 ATS (83%). Furthermore, if those favorites were -5.5 to -11.5 like Denver will be in Game 1 on Thursday night, then they improve to a perfect 8-0 SU&ATS with a substantial average victory margin of 15.0 points per contest. Give me the Denver Nuggets minus the points. |
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05-25-23 | Heat v. Celtics -8 | 97-110 | Win | 100 | 8 h 32 m | Show | |
Heat @ Celtics 8:30 PM ET Game# 549-550 Play On: Celtics -8.0 (5*) The Celtics staved off elimination with an impressive blowout win at Miami in Game 4. NBA Playoffs home favorites of -6.0 to -12.5 like Boston that are down 3-1 in their current series, resulted in those home favorites going 8-1 ATS and 9-0 SU since the 2009 postseason. The average margin of victory in those 8 contests came by an average of 13.1 points per game. The only non-cover came on 4/30/2013 when Denver was a 7.5-point home favorite and they won by 7 versus Golden State. Give me the Boston Celtics minus the points. |
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05-23-23 | Celtics +2 v. Heat | 116-99 | Win | 100 | 9 h 43 m | Show | |
Celtics @ Heat 8:30 PM ET Game# 545-546 Play On: Celtics +2.0 (5*) Boston has lost the first 3 games of this Eastern Conference Finals. Since the start of the 2020-2021 NBA season, Boston has gone 11-1 SU and 10-2 ATS immediately following 3 straight losses. Putting those results into perspective, the Celtics have lost 4 games in a row just once over the previous 3 seasons. Furthermore, since 11/28/2021, Boston is an unscathed 6-0 SU&ATS on the road in contests like today in which they scored 105 points or fewer in each of their previous 2 games. Boston had an average point-spread of -1.1 in those 6 contests and won by an average of 14.8 points per game. Miami is 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS this season immediately following 2 straight wins in which they allowed 105 points or fewer. That includes 0-4 SU&ATS in their last 4 in that identical situation. Give me the Boston Celtics plus the small number. |
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05-20-23 | Nuggets v. Lakers -5.5 | 119-108 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 43 m | Show | |
Nuggets @ Lakers 8:30 PM ET Game# 539-540 Play On: Lakers -5.5 (5*) The Nuggets are a perfect 8-0 at home in these Playoffs, but they’ve lost 3 of their last 4 on the road. The Lakers will be playing with plenty of desperation and urgency at home tonight after losing the first 2 games of this Western Conference Final at Denver. It’s worth noting, the Lakers are 6-0 at home during the 2023 NBA Playoffs and with a substantial average victory margin of 18.3 points per game. As a matter of fact, dating back to the regular season, the Lakers will enter today on a 9-game home win streak. Since the 2003 NBA Playoffs, any home favorite of 4.5 to 8.5-points that’s down 2-0 in the series, and they’re facing an opponent that’s anywhere from a #1 through #4 seed, resulted in those home favorites withing that specific point-spread parameter going 22-5 ATS (81.5%). If those home teams were facing a #1 seed, they were a perfect 6-0 SU&ATS during that exact time span, and they won by an average of 17.0 points per game. Give me the Lakers minus the points. |
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05-19-23 | Heat v. Celtics -8.5 | 111-105 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 39 m | Show | |
Heat @ Celtics 8:30 PM ET Game# 537-538 Play On: Celtics -8.5 (5*) Boston is coming off a disappointing 123-116 home loss to Miami in game they closed as a 8.5-point favorite. Recent NBA Playoff betting history shows that teams like Boston coming off a Game 1 loss as a sizable home favorite doing very well as a similar sized chalk in Game 2. Additionally, the Celtics are an extremely profitable 9-1 SU&ATS in their last 10 games following a loss in their previous contest. Any NBA Playoffs Game 2 home favorite of 3.5 to 9.5-points that’s coming off an upset loss as a home favorite in which they scored 105 points or more, resulted in those home teams going a perfect 8-0 SU&ATS since the 2019 NBA Postseason. The average line for those home favorites was -6.8 and they won by an enormous 23.5 points per game. Give me the Boston Celtics minus points. |
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05-18-23 | Lakers +5.5 v. Nuggets | 103-108 | Win | 100 | 9 h 4 m | Show | |
Lakers @ Nuggets 8:30 PM ET Game# 535-536 Play On: Lakers +5.5 (5*) The Lakers have been terrific in recent times while going 6-0 SU&ATS in their last 6 immediately following a loss. As a matter of fact, they’re 4-0 SU&ATS during these 2023 NBA Postseason following a loss and won by a massive 25.3 points per game. Furthermore, the Lakers are 6-0 SU&ATS in their last 6 as an away underdog of 8.5 or less following a loss with an average victory margin of 10.1 points per game. Give me the Lakers plus the points. |
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05-14-23 | 76ers v. Celtics -6.5 | 88-112 | Win | 100 | 24 h 51 m | Show | |
76ers @ Celtics 3:30 PM ET Game# 509-510 Play On: Celtics -6.5 (10*) The Celtics are coming off a 95-86 win at Philadelphia in Game 6 to force these deciding 7th game. NBA Playoffs Game 7 betting history over the past 20 years indicates teams like Boston in this exact situation haven’t failed to cover on each occasion. NBA Game 7 home favorites of 4.5 or greater like Boston that are coming off a Game 6 road win by 6-points or more, resulted in those home favorites going 11-0 SU&ATS since the 2003 NBA Playoffs. The average margin of victory in those 11 contests came by a massive average of 18.9 points per game. Give me the Boston Celtics minus points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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05-12-23 | Warriors v. Lakers -2.5 | Top | 101-122 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
Warriors @ Lakers 10:00 PM ET Game# 503-504 Play On: Lakers -2.5 (10*) Golden State will try to stave off elimination for a 2nd time in 3 days. Nevertheless, that Game 5 win came at home. The Warriors are a miserable 11-34 on the road this season and that includes 5-21 when facing opponents with a winning record. Additionally, Golden State is a miserable 1-10 SU&ATS this season as a road underdog of 5.0 or less. The Lakers are coming off a 121-106 loss at Golden State in Game 5 and they squandered an opportunity to close out the defending world champions. However, recent NBA Playoffs betting history shows that teams like the Lakers in this exact situation have been exceptional good. NBA Playoff home favorites of 8.0 or less that have a 3-2 series and are coming off a Game 5 loss by 11 points or more, resulted in in those home favorites going 7-0 SU&ATS since the 2008 NBA Playoffs. Furthermore, the average margin of victory during those 7 contests came by a substantial 17.2 points per game. Give me the Lakers minus points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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05-11-23 | Nuggets +2.5 v. Suns | Top | 125-100 | Win | 100 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
Nuggets @ Suns 10:00 PM ET Game# 555-556 Play On: Nuggets +2.5 (10*) Phoenix is coming off a 118-102 loss at Denver in Game 5 and failed to cover as a 6.5-point underdog. As a result, they’re facing elimination tonight as they’re down 3-2 in the series. The Suns are an impressive 32-14 at home this season. However, they’ve gone just 4-4 SU at home following an away underdog ATS loss in their previous game. Furthermore, Phoenix is a miserable 2-8 SU&ATS this season when their point-spread was +3.0 to -3.0 and they were coming off a SU loss in their previous game. That includes 0-5 SU&ATS in their last 5 in that exact scenario if they were coming off a loss by 10 points or more. The above numbers and results certainly don’t bode well for the Suns as a favorite in tonight’s game. NBA Playoffs betting history supports #1 seed away underdogs like Denver who are attempting to close out a 7-game series. Any NBA Playoffs #1 seed like Denver that’s an away underdog of 5.0 or less while attempting to close out a 7-game series, and they’re coming off a SU win in their previous game, resulted in those top seeded away underdogs going 10-2 SU and 11-1 ATS since the 2005 postseason. Furthermore, that identical NBA Playoffs betting angle is a perfect 7-0 ATS and 6-1 SU since 2010. Give me the Denver Nuggets plus points. |
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05-10-23 | Lakers v. Warriors -7 | Top | 106-121 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show |
Lakers @ Warriors 10:00 PM ET Game# 551-552 Play On: Warriors -7.0 (10*) The Lakers have seized control of this series after winning Game 3 and 4 on their home floor to take a commanding 3-1 lead. However, look for an inspired effort from the defending world champion Warriors on their home floor. Since the 2014 NBA Playoffs, Golden State is 5-1 SU&ATS when facing elimination and coming off a loss in the previous game. The Warriors have also gone 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite following losses in each of their last 2 contests and won by an average of 12.5 points per game. Give me the Golden State Warriors minus points for a highest rated 10* Top Play. |
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05-09-23 | Suns v. Nuggets -5.5 | 102-118 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show | |
Suns @ Nuggets 10:00 PM ET Game# 547-548 Play On: Nuggets -5.5 (5*) Phoenix has gone 0-7 SU&ATS in their last 7 as an away underdog. The average line in those 7 contests was 4.7 and they lost by 10.9 points per game. Phoenix is also 0-3 SU&ATS this season as an away underdog immediately following wins in their previous 2 contests and they lost by an average of 13.7 points per game. Denver is 39-7 SU and 28-17-1 ATS at home this season and outscored their opponents by 10.2 points per game. That includes 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS at home during the 2023 NBA Playoffs and with an average victory margin of 13.8 points per game. Give me the Denver Nuggets minus points. |
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05-09-23 | 76ers v. Celtics -7 | 115-103 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 42 m | Show | |
76ers @ Celtics 7:30 PM ET Game# 545-546 Play On: Boston -7.0 (5*) The Celtics are coming off a heartbreaking 116-115 loss to Philadelphia in Game 4. However, the Celtics have been a resilient bunch and especially so of late. Boston is 6-0 SU&ATS in their last 6 immediately following a loss and won by a substantial margin of 19.7 points per game. Conversely, Philadelphia has gone 0-4 SU&ATS this season as an away underdog immediately following a home win and lost by 14.0 points per game. I’m predicting the Celtics will make a huge statement tonight on their home floor. Give me the Boston Celtics minus points. |
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05-08-23 | Warriors +3 v. Lakers | 101-104 | Push | 0 | 11 h 47 m | Show | |
Warriors @ Lakers 10:00 PM ET Game# 543-544 Play On: Warriors +3.0 (5*) Golden State is coming off an embarrassing 127-100 road loss in Game 3. However, the Warriors are 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3 during these playoffs following a loss and won by 21.3 points per game. Since the 2017 postseason, Golden State is 3-0 SU&ATS as an underdog of 1.5 or greater following a playoff loss and won by 11.7 points per game. Considering their vast playoff experiences and successes, I expect Golden State to respond in a big way this evening. NBA Playoffs Game 4 away pick or underdog of 8.0 or less that are coming off an away underdog ATS loss in which they failed to cover by 20.0 points or more, resulted in those teams going 6-0 SU&ATS since the 2005 NBA Postseason. Those teams’ average point-spread was +4.2 and they won by an average of 13.3 points per game. Give me Golden State plus points. |
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05-07-23 | Nuggets +2.5 v. Suns | 124-129 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 6 m | Show | |
Nuggets @ Suns 8:00 PM ET Game# 539-540 Play On: Nuggets +2.5 (5*) Denver is coming off a disappointing Game 3 loss at Phoenix but still holds a 2-1 series lead. Any NBA Playoffs team that’s ahead in a series like Denver versus an opponent like Phoenix that has a season win percentage of .450 to .550 has gone 46-12 (79.35) since the 2019 postseason, and they outscored those opponents by an average of 9.7 points per contest. The SU results take on added significance since it backs the underdog in this matchup. Give me the Denver Nuggets plus points. |
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05-07-23 | Celtics v. 76ers +2.5 | 115-116 | Win | 100 | 3 h 24 m | Show | |
Celtics @ 76ers 3:30 PM ET Game# 537-538 Play On: 76ers +2.5 (5*) After winning Game 1 in Boston, the 76ers have lost the last 2 in this series to fall behind 2-1. The 76ers are 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 at home this season and they outscored those opponents by 11.2 points per game. Philadelphia lost Game 3 at home 114-102. Since the start of last season, Philadelphia is 8-0 SU immediately following a home SU loss by 11-points or more and they outscored those opponents by 9.9 points per game. The 76ers certainly don’t want to return to Boston down 3-1 in the series. So, desperation and urgency with a quality team like Philadelphia will be a key component in us covering this contest. Any NBA Playoffs Game 4 home underdog of 4.5 or less like Philadelphia that down 2-1 in the series and is coming off losses in the last 2 contests, resulted in those home underdogs going 10-1 SU&ATS since 2008. Furthermore, if those home underdogs lost the previous game by 15 points or fewer, they improved to 5-0 SU&ATS with an average victory margin of 14.8 points per game. Play on the Philadelphia 76ers plus the points. |
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05-06-23 | Warriors v. Lakers -3.5 | 97-127 | Win | 100 | 6 h 1 m | Show | |
Warriors @ Lakers 8:30 PM ET Game# 535-536 Play On: Lakers -3.5 (5*) Golden State’s inexplicable struggles on the road (13-32 SU/15-30-2 ATS) this season have been well documented. They went 0-2 SU&ATS in their 2 road games versus the Lakers and were held to a poor 38.8% shooting from the floor. The oddsmakers were undeterred by the Warriors 127-100 blowout home win in Game 2 which evened the series at 1-1. The Lakers opened as a 2.0-point home favorite in Game 3 but they’ve since moved to -3.5. The Lakers are 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS at home during this 2023 postseason and won by an average of 15.5 points per game. The Lakers are also 10-1 SU and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 following a loss in their previous game. Give me the Lakers minus points. |
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05-06-23 | Knicks +4 v. Heat | 86-105 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 18 m | Show | |
Knicks @ Miami 3:30 PM ET Game# 533-534 Play On: Knicks +4.0 (5*) The Miami Heat’s injury list is starting to resemble a mash unit. This is a spot where those key missing pieces or even playing injured players finally begins to catch up with them. The Heat’s Game 2 loss at New York halted a 4-game win streak. Miami has gone a dismal 3-11 SU this season after winning 4 of their last 5 games. The Knicks are coming off a 6-point home win in Game 2 to even this series up at 1-1. During the first 2 games of the series, New York had a combined +25 rebounding advantage. The Knicks defense has been terrific during the playoffs while allowing just 97.8 points per game. New York has gone a more than respectable 26-18 SU and 28-15-1 ATS (65.1%) on the road this season. Furthermore, the Knicks are 7-0 SU&ATS in their last 7 this season as an away underdog of 4.0 or less and immediately following a SU win by 6-points or more. Lastly, New York 7-0 SU&ATS this season as a conference underdog of 4.0 or less and immediately following a home SU win. Their average point-spread in those 7 contests was +3.4 and they won by an average of 10.7 points per game. Give me the New York Knicks plus the points. |
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05-04-23 | Lakers v. Warriors -6 | 100-127 | Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show | |
Lakers @ Warriors 9:00 ET Game# 525-526 Play On: Warriors -6.0 (5*) Golden State lost Game 1 at home to the Lakers 117-112 in a game they closed as a 4.5-point favorite. However, Golden State is 6-0 SU&ATS in their last 6 at home immediately following a SU loss. Any NBA Playoffs Game 2 home favorite of 1.5 to 9.0 (Golden State) has gone 26-2 ATS (92.9%) since 2021. That also includes 18-0 SU&ATS the last 18 times this exact situation has come up. The average line for the favorites in those 18 contests was -6.4 and they outscored the underdogs by an average of 17.2 points per game. Give me Golden State minus points. |
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05-03-23 | 76ers v. Celtics -7.5 | 87-121 | Win | 100 | 8 h 42 m | Show | |
76ers @ Celtics 8:00 PM ET Game# 521-522 Play On: Celtics -7.5 (5*) I’m looking for this to be a monumental bounce back spot for Boston after losing Game 1 at home 119-115. The Celtics lost that contest despite shooting 58% from the field and being +10 on the boards. Nonetheless, Boston is a perfect 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 following a loss in their previous contest and they won by an average of 16.8 points per game. Since the 2021 NBA Playoffs, Game 2 home teams like Boston are 35-5 SU (.875) and 33-7 ATS (83%). If those home teams were a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5, then they improved to 22-4 ATS (85%) during that identical span of time. Give me the Celtics minus the points. |
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05-01-23 | Suns v. Nuggets -4 | 87-97 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show | |
Suns @ Nuggets 10:05 PM ET Game# 513-514 Play On: Nuggets -4.0 (5*) Denver is coming off a convincing 125-107 home win over Phoenix in Game 1 and they easily covered as a 4.5-point favorite. That now makes the Nuggets 38-7 SU and 24-17-1 ATS at home this season. Since the 2021 NBA Playoffs began, any NBA postseason favorite of -3.5 to 9.0 in Game 2 of a series like Denver, resulted in those favorites going an extremely profitable 20-2 ATS (90.9%). The average line during those 22 contests was -6.3 and the favorite outscored the underdogs by 16.4 points per game. Give me the Denver Nuggets minus points. |
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04-30-23 | Heat v. Knicks -4 | 108-101 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 19 m | Show | |
Miami @ New York 1:00 PM ET Game# 501-502 Play On: New York -4.0 (5*) The #8 seed Miami Heat shocked the top seeded Milwaukee Bucks in 5 games to advance. Despite losing 2 key players in that series to injuries in Victor Oladipo and Tyler Herro, Miami was able to prevail mostly due in part to Jimmy Butler’s super-human effort in the series which saw him average 37.6 points per game, and the defensive ineptitude displayed by Milwaukee who allowed the Heat to average 124.0 points per contest while shooting a sizzling hot 51.9%. Miami won’t find it quite as easy on the offensive end versus a New York team which held Cleveland to 97 points or fewer in 4 of 5 games during their East Conference Quarterfinal series win. As a matter of fact, the Knicks were 2-0 at home versus Miami this season and held the Heat to a mere 98.0 points per game. Give me New York minus points. |
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04-28-23 | Grizzlies v. Lakers -4.5 | 85-125 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show | |
Grizzlies @ Lakers 10:30 PM ET Game# 549-550 Play On: Lakers -4.5 (5*) Memphis is coming off an impressive 116-99 home win in Game 5 to stay alive and cut their series deficit to 3-2. However, the Grizzlies are 0-5 SU&ATS in their last 5 following a win and lost by a decisive margin of 12.4 points per game. Conversely, the Lakers are 9-1 SU and 8-1-1 ATS following a loss in their previous contest. Put that Lakers run of resiliency into perspective, they’ve only lost 2 straight games just once since 2/9/2022 (78-days). Counting the postseason, the Lakers are 4-0 SU&ATS at home versus Memphis during this 2022-2023 NBA campaign. The Lakers held the Grizzlies to 42% or worse shooting in all 4 of those home wins and that includes 39% or less in each of the previous 3 meetings. Give me the Lakers minus points. |
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04-27-23 | Celtics -6.5 v. Hawks | 128-120 | Win | 100 | 5 h 4 m | Show | |
Celtics @ Hawks 8:30 PM ET Game# 537-538 Play On: Celtics -6.5 (5*) Since the start of the 2021-2022 season, Boston is 4-0 SU&ATS as an away favorite of 5.0 or greater following a home loss in their previous game and with an average victory margin of 14.5 points per game. The current total on this contest is 231.0, and Boston is 5-0 SU&ATS this season during away games that have a total of 230.0 or greater and won by a massive 22.4 points per game. Conversely, Atlanta is 0-4 SU&ATS in their last 4 this season following a win. Since the 2014 NBA Playoffs, round 1 Game 6 away favorites like Boston have gone an extremely profitable 13-1 SU&ATS. Furthermore, if those away favorites were coming off a SU loss in Game 5, they improved to 4-0 SU&ATS with a decisive average victory margin of 18.7 points per game. Additionally, teams like Boston that are playing as an away favorite of 2.0 to 8.0-points in Game 6 of a playoffs series that they lead 3-2, and they’re coming off a Game 5 home favorite SU loss, resulted in those Game 6 away favorites going 4-0 SU&ATS with an average victory margin of 21.8 points per game. Give me the Boston Celtics minus points. |
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04-26-23 | Heat v. Bucks -11.5 | 128-126 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 32 m | Show | |
Heat @ Bucks 9:30 ET Game# 527-528 Play On: Bucks -11.5 (5*) We have a double-digit postseason favorite that’s down 3-1 in a playoff series. This point-spread tells me everything I need to know. This is the game where Miami truly misses the loss of Tyler Herro and Victor Oladipo. Their absences in the previous game weren’t noticeable because the Heat won and Jimmy Butler turned in a playoff performance for the ages with a 58-point game. Although Butler will continue to carry the load offensively, the probability of him even coming close to his 58-point scoring night are extremely low. Nobody else in the Heat lineup at this present time has shown any indication they can be a consistent offensive contributor to help take off some of the burden currently bestowed upon “Jimmy Buckets”. I’m looking for the Bucks defensive intensity to be at a high-level tonight after going through lapses over the past 2 weeks. Give me the Milwaukee Bucks minus points. |
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04-26-23 | Lakers +4.5 v. Grizzlies | 99-116 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 33 m | Show | |
Lakers @ Grizzlies 7:30 ET Game# 531-532 Play On: Lakers +4.5 (5*) For starters, the Lakers lost their last contest on the road in Game 2 at Memphis. Los Angeles is a perfect 6-0 SU&ATS in their last 6 away after losing the last time they played a road game. The lakers won both games at home in this series to take a commanding 3-1 lead. The Lakers are 6-0 ATS and 5-1 SU this season as an away underdog of 9.0 or less immediately following a home win. The average point-spread in those 6 contests was 6.5 and they outscored those 6 opponents by an average of 5.0 points per game. The Lakers have played superb defense in their 5 postseason games while holding opponents 105.8 points per contest and 42.0% shooting from the field. The average point total allowed would be better than it already was if not for 2 of those 5 games requiring overtime. Despite Memphis being the Western Conference #2 seed and the Lakers #7, the lower seeded team is the better team at this juncture of the season. Give me the Lakers plus the points. |
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04-26-23 | Knicks v. Cavs -5.5 | Top | 106-95 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 4 m | Show |
Knicks @ Cavaliers 7:00 PM ET Game# 529-530 Play On: Cavaliers -5.5 (10*) We have a sizable home favorite that trails this playoff series 3-1 and has lost the last 2 games. Must be awfully tempting for many bettors to take the underdog in that spot. However, I’m going with a contrarian approach in this spot. We saw the teams down 3-1 in their series go 2-1 ATS as underdogs last night. Additionally, Atlanta won their game SU as a +13.5 underdog at Boston and Minnesota lost by just 2 as a 10.0-point dog at #1 seed Denver. Both those teams were on the road while the Cavaliers will be at home this evening where they’ve gone 32-11 SU and 26-17 ATS this season. Furthermore, Cleveland is 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 as a home favorite of 12.0 or less immediately following 2 consecutive losses, and they won by a substantial average of 16.7 points per contest. The Cavaliers are just 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games played. Nevertheless, Cleveland is 9-1 ATS this season after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their previous 6 and outscored those 10 opponents by 16.6 points per game. Give me the Cleveland Cavaliers minus the points. |
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04-25-23 | Wolves v. Nuggets -9.5 | 109-112 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 24 m | Show | |
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets 9:00 PM ET Game# 521-522 Play On: Nuggets -9.5 (5*) Minnesota staved off elimination with a 114-108 home overtime win in Game 4 on Sunday. The Timberwolves blew a 12-point lead late in the 4th quarter but survived to play another day. However, playing in Denver this season has been nothing short of a hornet’s nest for Minnesota. The Nuggets have won all 4 meetings at home versus Minnesota this season and won by an average of 18.5 points per game. During those 4 contests, Denver scored 124.7 points per game and shot a sizzling hot 53.8% from the field. Denver is 6-0 SU&ATS in their last 6 conference home games following a loss and won by 16.7 points per contest. As a matter of fact, Denver is an outstanding 36-7 SU (.837) and 27-16-1 ATS (62.8%) at home this season. Any #1 seed home favorite of 9.0 or greater like Denver who are playing in Game 5 of a NBA Playoff series, and they’re coming off an away favorite SU loss in Game 4. resulted in them going 7-0 SU&ATS since the 2008 NBA postseason. Those favorites won by an average of 23.7 points per game. Give me the Denver Nuggets minus points. |
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04-23-23 | Kings v. Warriors -7.5 | 125-126 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 57 m | Show | |
Kings @ Warriors 3:30 ET Game# 503-504 Play On: Warriors -7.5 (5*) Golden State is coming off a 114-97 home win over Sacramento to take a 2-1 series lead. Golden State is 6-0 SU&ATS in their last 6 at home following a game in which they allowed 105 points or fewer and won by an average of 12.0 points per game. Since the start of the 2020-2021 season, Golden State is a perfect 7-0 SU at home versus Sacramento with an average victory margin of 12.5 points per game. Golden State is 11-1 SU&ATS in their last 12 as a home favorite of -9.5 or less, and if their opponent was coming off a SU loss, they were 4-0 SU&ATS during that time frame. Sacramento scored less than 100 points for just the 5th time this season in their Game 3 loss. Furthermore, the Kings are 0-3 SU&ATS on the road this season following a game in which they scored 99 points or fewer and were beaten by an average of 13.7 points per contest. Give me the Golden State Warriors minus the points. |
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04-22-23 | Bucks v. Heat +5 | Top | 99-121 | Win | 100 | 25 h 18 m | Show |
Bucks @ Heat 3:30 PM ET Game# 567-568 Play On: Heat +5.0 (10*) Since the start of last season, Miami has gone 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS at home versus Milwaukee, and the average victory margin came by a whopping 18.3 points per contest. Additionally, they held the Bucks to 97 points or fewer in all 4 of those wins. So, there’s no denying they won’t be lacking for confidence in this pivotal game of series that’s tied up at 1-1. Furthermore, they knocked off the Bucks in the series opener 130-117 at Milwaukee. The logic being this isn’t your typical #8 vs. #1 seed first round matchup where the underdog looks overwhelmed and passive. The Bucks did make 25 three-point shots in their Game 2 home win. However, that was on the heels of going 11-45 (24.4%) during the series opener. Speaking of 3-point shooting, Miami has shot a red-hot 31-61 (51.4%) from 3-point territory in the first 2 games of this series. The Heat have shot 51.2% or better from the field in 6 of their last 9 games. Conversely, the Bucks have allowed opponents to shoot 50% or better in their last 4 and 8 of their previous 11 games. Give me the Miami Heat plus points. |
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04-20-23 | Suns -2.5 v. Clippers | 129-124 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show | |
Suns @ Clippers 10:30 PM ET Game# 551-552 Play On: Suns -2.5 (5*) Phoenix is coming off a 123-109 home win over the Clippers which tied the series at 1-1. Since 2017, Game 3 NBA Playoff away favorites that are coming of a home win by 10 points or more which evened the series up at 1-1 went 10-0 SU and 9-0-1 ATS. The away favorites won by an average of 10.4 points per game. Furthermore, the Clippers are 0-4 SU&ATS at home this season immediately following a road loss by 10 points or more and they lost by an average of 12.0 points per game. All 4 of those losses came against teams that are currently participating in the NBA Playoffs. The Clippers are 0-2 SU&ATS at home versus the Suns this season and lost by scores of 111-95 and 112-95. Give me the Phoenix Suns minus the points. |
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04-19-23 | Wolves +8.5 v. Nuggets | 113-122 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 45 m | Show | |
Timberwolves @ Nuggets 10:00 PM ET Game# 543-544 Play On: Timberwolves +8.5 (5*) Minnesota turned in an embarrassing performance during a 109-80 blowout loss to Denver in Game 1. The Timberwolves are 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 in their last 5 away games following an away loss in which they scored 108 points or fewer. Their average point-spread in those 5 win and covers was +4.9. I look for Minnesota to put up a huge fight and take this game down to the wire at the very least. Give me the Minnesota Timberwolves plus the points. |
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04-19-23 | Heat v. Bucks -6.5 | 122-138 | Win | 100 | 8 h 41 m | Show | |
Heat @ Bucks 9:00 PM ET Game# 541-542 Play On: Bucks -6.5 (5*) With or without Giannis Antetokounmpo I like the Bucks this evening. He’s likely out and being listed as doubtful and by what the current point-spread indicates it points directly to him being unavailable. Nevertheless, the Bucks have one of the deepest rosters quality wise as any in the NBA. They’ll also display a high degree of urgency and desperation this week in attempting to avoid traveling back to Miami down 2-0 in the series. Since 5/26/2021, NBA Playoffs home teams playing in a Game 2 and coming off a home loss have gone 11-0 SU&ATS with an average victory margin of 16.6 points per game. Give me the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points. |
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04-19-23 | Lakers v. Grizzlies +1.5 | 93-103 | Win | 100 | 6 h 11 m | Show | |
Lakers @ Grizzlies 7:30 PM ET Game# 539-540 Play On: Grizzlies +1.5 (5*) Memphis dropped the series opener to the Lakers 128-112. Despite that very disappointing performance, the Grizzlies are 35-7 SU (.833) at home this season. Furthermore, the Grizzlies are 3-0 SU&ATS at home this season immediately after losing at home in their previous contest and they won by a substantial margin of 16.7 points per game. Ja Morant is listed as questionable due to the bruised hand he suffered in Game 1 and this current point-spread surely indicates the sportsbooks don’t expect him to play. However, if he’s available and even not 100% expect Memphis to move to a small favorite in this contest. Ja Morant playing or not playing, I’m taking the Memphis Grizzlies either way. |
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04-18-23 | Clippers v. Suns -8 | Top | 109-123 | Win | 100 | 9 h 24 m | Show |
Clippers @ Suns 10:00 PM ET Game# 535-536 Play On: Suns -8.0 (10*) Since the 1996 NBA Playoffs, the Clippers have gone a dismal 4-16 ATS on the road when leading a series. Additionally, this current line speaks volumes. Phoenix is a sizable favorite despite losing 3 in a row and they’re facing an opponent like the Clippers who have won 4 straight. The sportsbooks are begging you to take the underdog in this spot. Furthermore, the Clippers are 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS this season as an away underdog immediately following a game in which they won SU as an away underdog, and they were outscored by a substantial margin of 14.0 points per contest. Phoenix is coming off a 115-110 home loss as a favorite of -7.5 in Game 1 of this series. NBA favorites like Phoenix who are playing with revenge stemming from a SU loss as a home favorite of 7.0 or greater, and they’re coming off a home favorite SU loss in their previous game, resulted in those teams going 39-10 ATS (79.6%) since the 2018-2019 season began. The average point-spread for those favorites was -6.8 and they outscored the underdogs by 13.8 points per game. Give me the Phoenix Suns minus the points. |
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04-18-23 | Knicks v. Cavs -5.5 | 90-107 | Win | 100 | 7 h 52 m | Show | |
Knicks @ Cavaliers 7:30 PM ET Game# 533-534 Play On: Cavaliers -5.5 (5*) The Knicks are coming off an impressive Game 1 SU win at Cleveland in a game they closed as a 5.0-point underdog. Recent NBA Playoffs betting history has shown those losing home teams like Cleveland recover strongly at home in Game 2 to not only win, but they do so by a decisive margin. NBA playoff teams that are playing in Game 2 of a series at home and are coming off a home SU loss in Game 1 have gone 9-0 SU&ATS since 5/26/2021. The average line for the home team was -3.9 and they outscored the visitors by 16.9 points per game. Give me the Cleveland Cavaliers minus the points. |