Clemson @ Notre Dame 7:30 PM ET

Game# 421-422

Play On: Notre Dame +4.0 (5*)

Unlike other past Clemson teams that have contended for a national title, this 8-0 Tigers team has managed to escape with a trio of 1 score wins, and it includes each of their previous 2 games played. Those last 2 wins each came by exactly 6 points over Syracuse and Florida State. They also beat Wake Forest in overtime earlier this season.

Notre Dame ran the ball down Syracuse’s throat last week while amassing 246 yards rushing and average over 5 yards per running attempt. Florida State showed a few weeks back that Clemson can be run on. The Seminoles had 206 yards rushing in that contest while also averaging a robust 6.1 yards per attempt. The strength of this Notre Dame team is running the ball behind an outstanding offensive line. This will be just the 11th time since 2008 that Notre Dame will be a home underdog. They went 7-3 ATS and 6-4 in their previous 11 in that role. Furthermore, if the Irish didn’t enter those games undefeated, they were a perfect 3-0 SU&ATS. The Irish started the season 2-0, but they’ve rebounded to win 5 of their last 6.

Give me Notre Dame plus the points.

Troy @ UL-Lafayette 5:00 PM ET

Game# 391-392

Play On: Troy -3.5 (5*)

Troy is coming off a Sun Belt Conference 10-6 win at South Alabama in their previous game. That victory was the 5th in a row for the Trojans and improved their season record to 6-2. Their only 2 losses came at nationally ranked Ole Miss 28-10 and at Appalachian State 32-28 when they allowed a miracle Hail Mary touchdown pass on the last play of the game. It’s been a to0ugh transition for UL-Lafayette in the first year since former head coach Billy Napier took the Florida job. They Rajun Cajuns are just 3-4 this season versus FBS teams.

College Football away favorites of between 3.5 and 10.0 with a win percentage of .428 or better (Troy) who scored and allowed 17 points or fewer in their previous game, versus an opponent (UL-Lafayette) coming off a loss by 3 points or more, resulted in those road favorites going an unbeaten 8-0 ATS since 2018. It is a short sample size, but those 8 road favorites of 3.5 to 10.0 won those contests by an average of 32.1 points per game. This is a strong betting situation for the road favorite.

Give me Troy minus the points.

Tennessee @ Georgia 3:30 PM ET

Game# 399-400

Play On: Georgia -8.0 (5*)

Here’s the thing, Georgia remains #1 and Tennessee #2 in the AP Poll. However, the first College Football Playoff Rankings came out this week and had Tennessee #1 and Georgia #3. As if the Bulldogs needed any more incentive while playing at home. I look for the defending national champion Georgia Bulldogs to win and easily cover.

Both teams enter this game with identical 8-0 season records. Georgia is coming off a 42-20 win over Florida. Georgia has won 15 straight home games versus FBS opponents and includes going 5-1 ATS as a favorite of 7.5 to 19.0.

Any conference home favorite of 5.5 to 8.5 (Georgia) with a win percentage of .800 or better that’s playing after Game 6, and they’re coming off a conference win by 21 points or greater, versus an opponent (Tennessee) with a win percentage of .800 or better, resulted in those home favorites going 15-2 ATS and 17-0 SU since 2006. The average victory margin in those 17 contests was 17.6 points per game.

Give me Georgia minus the points.

Central Florida @ Memphis 3:30 PM ET

Game# 403-404

Play On: Memphis +3.5 (10*)

This has all the earmarks of a trap game for UCF. The Golden Knights are coming off last Saturday’s emotional 25-21 home win over perennial conference pow Cincinnati. Up next, they’ll travel to Tulane who ic currently the top ranked Group of Five team in the country. In between, it’s this Saturday’s matchup versus a 4-4 Memphis team who has lost each of their previous 3 contests. The good news for Tigers backers is their team is 3-1 at home this season with their only loss coming in fluky fashion after blowing a 32-19 lead with less than 2 minutes left versus Houston and they fell 33-32. No miracles or flukes this time.

Give me Memphis plus the points for my College Football Top Play of the Week.

Kentucky @ Missouri 12:00 PM ET

Game# 361-362

Play On: Missouri +1.0 (5*)

Kentucky was blown out 44-6 at #1 Tennessee last Saturday. After starting the season 4-0, the Wildcats have lost 3 of its last 4, and had a turnover margin of -5.

Missouri is coming off a 23-10 upset win at South Carolina last Saturday. Missouri is 4-4 (.500) this season but 3-1 at home this season with their only loss coming to #3 Georgia 26-22. The Missouri defense has been outstanding during their previous 3 games while allowing only 16.0 points and 268.3 yards per contest. They’ll be facing a Kentucky offense that over its last 4 games has averaged only just 16.5 points scored and 313.0 yards gained per game.

College Football home teams with a in percentage of .500 or worse (Missouri) playing before Game 12 and they’re coming off an underdog SU upset win, versus an opponent coming off a road loss by 21 points or more, resulted in those home teams going 21-0 SU since 2013. If those home teams had a point-spread parameter of +3.5 to -9.5 they were 11-0 SU&ATS since 2013 and won by an average of 16.4 points per game.

Give me the Missouri Tigers in this one.

Appalachian State @ Coastal Carolina 7:30 PM ET

Game# 313-314

Play On: Coastal Carolina +3.0 (5*)

Appalachian State enters this contest with a somewhat disappointing 5-3 record. That includes 2 Sun Belt Conferences losses to James Madison as a 6.0-point favorite and at Texas State as a sizable 19.0-point chalk.

Coastal Carolina is coming off last Saturday’s 24-13 win at Marshall and did so as a 2.5-point underdog. That victory improved the Chanticleers season record to 7-1 (.875). Since 2020, Coastal Carolina is 5-0 SU&ATS at home when their point-spread is between -6.0 and +11.0. The Chanticleers will also be out to revenge last year’s 30-27 upset loss at Appalachian State. Since 2020, Coastal Carolina is 5-0 SU&ATS at home when their point-spread is between -6 to +11.0 and with an average victory margin of 10.5 points per game.

Any conference home team with a win percentage of .800 or better that’s coming off a conference win by 10 points or more, and they’re facing an opponent with a win percentage of .600 to .800, resulted in those home teams going 52-5 (91.2%) straight up since 2018. This SU betting angle takes on added significance since it supports the underdog in this matchup. Additionally, if those home teams had a point-spread parameter of between -6.0 and +11.0 they were 5-0 SU&ATS with an average victory margin of 8.2 points per game.

Give me Coastal Carolina plus the points.

Buffalo @ Ohio 7:30 PM ET

Game# 303-304

Play On: Buffalo -2.5 (5*)

Ohio is coming off a 24-17 home win over Northern Illinois and did so as a 2.5-point underdog. The Bobcats are now 3-1 in conference action. However, there’s a red flag when considering they’re allowing 486.0 yards per game in those contests.

Buffalo got off to a terrible 0-3 start in the non-conference portions of their schedule. Nonetheless, they’ve gone 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 and all versus conference opponents. Their most recent victory was a 34-27 home victory over Toledo. During their last 4 contests, the Bulls defense is allowing 15.3 points and 349.3 yards per game while also forcing 11 turnovers.

Any conference road favorite of 1.5 or more that’s coming off a home win in which they scored 28 points or greater, versus an opponenta with a win percentage of less than .666 and off a conference SU underdog win, resulted in those home favorites going 15-0 SU&ATS since 2018. The average victory margin came by an enormous 23.7 points per game.

Give me Buffalo minus the points.

San Francisco @ LA Rams 4:25 PM ET

Game# 273-274

Play On: Rams +1.0 (10*)

The Rams are coming off a bye week and were a 24-10 home winner over Carolina in their previous game. San Francisco is coming off an embarrassing 44-23 home loss to Kansas City which dropped their season record to a disappointing 3-4.

NFL home teams (Rams) off a home win by 10-points or more, versus an opponent coming off a home loss by 21 points or greater (49ers) and they have a losing season record, resulted in those home teams going 21-0 SU since 1984. The average margin of victory in those 21 contests came by 11.0 points per game. The SU betting angle takes on added significance because it backs the current 1.0-point underdog LA Rams.

Give me the LA Rams for a 10* Top Play.

Chicago @ Dallas 1:00 PM ET

Game# 253-254

Play On: Dallas -10.0 (5*)

Chicago is coming off a huge 33-14 upset win at New England this past Monday night in a game they closed as a 9.5-point underdog. Since 2020, the Bears have gone 0-5 SU&ATS as an away underdog following an away win in their previous game and lost by an average of 13.4 points per contest.

Since the start of last season, Dallas has gone 7-0 SU&ATS as a favorite when facing teams with a losing record. The Cowboys won those 7 contests by an average of 18.6 points per game. The Cowboys lead the NFL in sacks with 29. Conversely, Chicago is dead last in the NFL in sacks allowed with 27, and that’s with an extremely mobile quarterback in Justin Fields. This isn’t exactly a good matchup for a Bears offense against an outstanding Dallas defense that allows just.  That’s especially so if they fall behind by more than one score since their passing offense is also dead last in the NFL.

NFL home favorites of 7.5 or greater (Dallas) with a win percentage of less than .750, versus an opponent (Chicago) coming off an away underdog of 7.5 to 14.0 ATS win, resulted in those home favorites going 9-0 SU&ATS since 2009. The average victory margin came by an enormous average of 23.9 points per game.

Give me Dallas minus the points.

Carolina @ Atlanta 1:00 PM ET

Game# 257-258

Play On: Carolina +4.0 (5*)

Carolina showed a ton of heart and character in last Sunday’s 21-3 home win over Tampa Bay in a gme they closed as a 13.0-point underdog. Atlanta received a dose of reality in last week’s 35-17 loss at Cincinnati in a game they closed as a 6.5-point underdog.

NFL away underdogs of 4.5 or less (Carolina) in Games 2 through 16 with a win percentage of .250 to .400, versus an opponent (Atlanta) coming off an away SU&ATS loss in which they failed to cover by 7.0 or more and they have a win percentage of .400 to .490, resulted in those away underdogs of 4.5 or less going 15-0 ATS since 1981. They also went 13-1-1 SU as well.

Give me Carolina plus the points.

Missouri @ South Carolina 4:00 PM ET

Game# 127-128

Play On: Missouri +4.0 (5*)

Missouri is coming off an uninspiring 17-14 home win over Vanderbilt and they now possess a season record of 3-4. However, their previous 3 losses came by a combined 14 points versus Auburn, Florida, and #1 Georgia. Since a 40-12 loss at Kansas State, Missouri has allowed just 19.6 points and 319.8 yards per game during their last 5 contests.

Missouri enters this game having gone 10-18 SU in their last 28 road games and that includes 0-3 this season. South Carolina is on a current 4-0 SU&ATS run. By doing so they’ve cracked the Top 25 for the first time this season. Their most recent win came at home 30-24 over Texas A&M.

With all being considered, this is an extremely fishy line. We have a Top 25 teams at home laying a short number versus an opponent with a losing record. When it looks too easy in sports betting, more times than not it isn’t.

College Football Road Underdogs of 9.5 or less (Missouri) with a losing record who are coming off a conference win by 7 points or fewer, and they’ve won 16 or fewer of their last 28 away games, versus an opponent (South Carolina) with a win percentage of .250 or better that scored 20 points or more during its previous game, resulted in those road underdogs of 9.5 or less going 13-0 SU&ATS since 2018. The average victory margin for those 13 road underdogs came by 10.9 points per game.

Give me Missouri plus the points.

Louisville @ Wake Forest 3:30 PM ET

Game# 137-138

Play On: Louisville +3.5 (10*)

Wake Forest is coming off a 48-15 conference win at home over Boston College which improved their season record to 6-1.

Louisville is coming off conference wins in each of their last 2 games and both came by double-digit margins. That improved their season record to 4-3. The Cardinals are showing positive signs regarding finishing this season strong. During their previous 4 games, Louisville is at an excellent +8 turnover margin and forced 13 turnovers by opponents. The Cardinals are just 15-13 SU in their last 21 at home, but that fits perfectly into the betting angle displayed below.

Since 2018, college football home teams (Louisville) with a winning record that are +10.0 to -10.0 and are coming off back-to-back conference wins in which they allowed 33 points or fewer on each occasion, and they’ve won 23 or less of its previous 28 at home, versus an opponent (Wake Forest) with at least 1 loss on the season and coming off a conference win by 21 points or more, resulted in those home teams going 14-0 SU&ATS since 2018. The average victory margin in those 14 contests came by 17.1 points per game.

Give me Louisville plus the points.

Ohio State @ Penn State 12:00 PM ET

Game# 135-136

Play On: Ohio State -15.0 (5*)

Penn State is coming off an impressive 45-17 home win over Minnesota which improved their season record to 6-1. However, the sportsbooks apparently weren’t swayed by that result as they’ve made the Nittany Lions a better than 2-touchdown home underdog against #2 Ohio State (7-0). After failing to cover their first 2 games of the season, Ohio State is 4-0-1 ATS since with an average victory margin of 41.8 points per game.

College Football away favorites of 13.5 to 21.0 with a win percentage of .625 or better, versus an opponent (Penn State) with a win percentage of .272 or better and they’re coming off a conference win, resulted in those road favorites withing that point-spread parameter going 23-0 SU&ATS since 2018. The average margin of victory in those 23 contests came by 29.2 points per game.

Give me Ohio State minus the points.

Louisiana Tech @ FIU 8:00 PM ET

Game# 113-114

Play On: FIU +6.5 (5*)

Louisiana Tech has gone a dismal 1-5 versus FBS teams this season and allowed 31 points or more in each contest. Additionally, they allowed 38 points or more on 5 of those 6 occasions. During those 6 games the Bulldogs committed an alarmingly high 15 turnovers. That’s especially concerning when considering FIU has forced 7 turnovers during its last 2 games. The Bulldogs are coming off a 42-41 home loss to Rice in their previous game.  Since 2020, Louisiana Tech is 0-6 SU&ATRS on the road following a loss in their previous game.

FIU is far from a good team. However, they’re coming off a confidence building 34-15 win at Charlotte in their previous game and racked up a season high 453 yards of total offense. That win improved their season record to 3-4 overall and 2-4 versus FBS teams.

This is a case of taking the lesser of 2 evils and based on all the above, there’s plenty of betting value on the home underdog in this contest. Give me FIU plus the points.

Steelers @ Dolphins 8:20 PM ET

Game# 473-474

Play On: Dolphins -7.0 (-120) (5*)

The Dolphins will be desperate after spoiling their 3-0 start and losing each of their previous 3 games. They will be facing a Steelers team off a huge 20-18 upset win at home versus Tampa Bay and they did so as a 9.5-point underdog.

Since 1998, NFL home favorites of 6.5 or greater (Dolphins) playing before Game 14, versus an opponent (Steelers) coming off a SU win by 6 points or fewer and as an underdog ranging from 7.0 to 14.0, resulted in those sizable home favorites going 13-0 SU&ATS. The average victory margin came by an enormous 22.3 points per game.

Give me the Dolphins minus the points.

Lions @ Cowboys 1:00 PM ET

Game# 451-452

Play On: Lions +6.5 (5*)

NFL away underdogs of between 6.5 and 10.0 (Lions) that are coming off an away underdog ATS loss in which they held scoreless, and they’re facing an opponent (Cowboys) with a season win percentage of .800 or less, resulted in those away underdogs going 11-1 ATS since 1984. Furthermore, those underdogs also went 9-3 SU during those contests.

Give me the Lions plus the points.

Falcons @ Bengals 1:00 PM ET

Game# 457-458

Play On: Bengals -6.5 (5*)

NFL home favorites (Bengals) of between 4.5 to 9.5 that are coming off a SU win, versus an opponent (Falcons) with a win percentage ranging from .450 to .550 and they’re coming off an underdog SU win by 14 points or more, resulted in those home favorites going 12-1 ATS since 1993. The home favorites also won all 13 of those contests SU and by a decisive margin of 14.8 points per game.

Give me the Bengals minus the points.

Packers @ Commanders 1:00 PM ET

Game# 463-464

Play On: Packers -4.5 (5*)

NFL favorites of 4.0 or greater (Packers) with a win percentage of .538 or worse that are coming off back-to-back SU favorite losses, and they’re playing after Game 5, resulted in those favorites going 12-1 ATS since 2003.

Give me the Packers minus the points.

Colts @ Titans 1:00 PM ET

Game# 455-456

Play On: Tennessee -2.5 (10*)

Indianapolis is coming off 2 straight wins but there were red flags to take into consideration moving forward. The Colts allowed an average of 184.0 yards rushing per game in those 2 wins, and that doesn’t bode well for this matchup since they’ll be facing a great running back in Derrick Henry.

Tennessee is coming off a bye week and that’s a noteworthy from a betting perspective. Since Mike Vrabel has been their head coach, the Titans have gone 4-0 SU&ATS in regular season games following a bye week, and with a substantial average victory margin of 20.5 points per contest. Tennessee has gone 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 versus Indianapolis and that includes a 24-17 road victory on just 3 weeks ago. The Titans were a 21-17 winner at Washington in their previous game and that made them 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3.

Since 2014, NFL teams (Titans) with a point-spread ranging from +2.5 to -3.0 with a win percentage of .510 to .600 that’s coming off a SU&ATS win, versus an opponent (Colts) with a win percentage of .571 to .750, resulted in those teams going 10-0 SU&ATS. The average victory margin in those 10 contests was 13.1 points per game.

Give me Tennessee minus the points for a 10* Top Play.

Minnesota @ Penn State 7:30 PM ET

Game# 409-410

Play On: Minnesota +5.0 (10*)

Michigan exposed a huge weakness in the Penn State run defense last week while rushing for 418 yards including 7.6 yards per attempt.  Minnesota will present them with similar challenges in attempting to stop the run. The Golden Gophers offensive rushing game has amassed 240 yards or more in 4 of 6 contests this season. Minnesota will get back on track in this one and wouldn’t be shocked if they won the game outright.

We won’t get greedy. Give me Minnesota plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

UCLA @ Oregon 3:30 PM ET

Game# 375-376

Play On: Oregon -6.0 (5*)

The #10 Oregon Ducks have reeled off 5 consecutive wins since suffering a humiliating 49-3 loss to #1 Georgia in their season opener. They will be facing #9 UCLA that comes in with an unbeaten 6-0 record. Yet, it’s the lower ranked 1-loss Ducks who come up as a touchdown favorite versus the undefeated UCLA Bruins. It comes as no surprise to me that greater than 60% of tickets bet and money wagered has gone on UCLA. I am taking the contrarian approach in this one.

Give me Oregon minus the points.

West Virginia @ Texas Tech 3:00 PM ET

Game# 387-388

Play On: Texas Tech -5.0 (5*)

West Virginia has gone just 2-8 SU and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 conference away games. The Mountaineers are 3-3. However, they’ve allowed an alarming 38 points or more in 4 of 5 contests versus FBS teams.

Texas Tech is coming off conference losses in each of their previous 2 games by scores of 41-31 at #11 Oklahoma State and 37-28 at #17 Kansas State. As a matter of fact, all 3 of Texas Tech losses have come versus ranked opponents with the other defeat at #23 NC State. The Red Raiders had last week off and will be ready to go on Saturday against a West Virginia. They’ve beaten West Virginia in each of the previous 3 meetings. The Red Raiders are a perfect 3-0 at home thus far which includes quality wins over Texas and Houston.

College Football conference home favorites of -5.0 to -21.0 (Texas Tech) who’s playing after Game 6, and they’re coming off back-to-back conference SU losses in which they allowed 31 points or more on each occasion, versus an opponent (West Virginia) with a win percentage of .500 or worse, resulted in those home favorites going 22-4 ATS (84.6%) since 2018.

Give me Texas Tech minus the points.

Saints @ Cardinals 8:20 PM ET

Game# 303-304

Play On: New Orleans +2.5 (5*)

Arizona has lost 8 consecutive home games and we’re talking about a team that qualified for the playoffs last season. Furthermore, 5 of those 8 home losses came as a favorite. The Cardinals are also coming off a 19-9 SU favorite loss at Seattle last week that dropped their season record to an extremely disappointing 2-4.

Conversely, since 2018, New Orleans has gone 27-8 SU and 24-11 ATS during its last 35 away games. That includes going 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 as an away underdog. The Saints have scored 25 points or more in their last 3 games. On the other hand, Arizona has scored 17 points or fewer in 3 of their last 4 games.

Give me the Saints plus the small number.

Broncos @ Chargers 8:20 PM ET

Game# 275-276

Play On: Chargers -4.0 (5*)

The Chargers are coming off back-to-back away favorite ATS covers. Denver is coming off a 12-9 home loss to Indianapolis.

NFL home favorites of -4.0 to -15.0 that are coming off 2 consecutive away favorite covers, and they’re facing a team (Broncos) coming off a non-division loss, resulted in those home favorites going 19-3 ATS since 1957. The home favorites also won all 22 of those contests straight up by an average of 17.5 points per game.

Give me the Chargers minus the points.

Cowboys @ Eagles 8:20 PM ET

Game# 273-274

Play On: Eagles -6.0 (10*)

Dallas is coming off a 22-10 road win over the Rams. The Eagles are coming off a 20-17 win over Arizona and failed to cover as a 5.5-point favorite. That victory improved the Eagles record to a perfect 6-0. Philadelphia has now gone 16-16 SU in their last 32 games played.

NFL home favorites of between 5.5 to 12.0 with a win percentage of better than .600 playing after Game 5 of the season, and they’re coming off an away win in which they scored 13 or more and allowed 24 or less and failed to cover, and they’ve won 24 or fewer of their last 32 games played versus an opponent who scored 31 or less in their previous game, resulted in those home favorites going 17-0 SU&ATS since 1982. The average margin of victory in those 17 contests came by an enormous 22.2 points per game.

Give me the Eagles minus the points.

Cardinals @ Seahawks 4:05 PM ET

Game#269-270

Play On: Cardinals -2.0 (5*)

Arizona has unusual home/away splits to start the season. The Cardinals are 0-3 SU&ATS at home and 2-0 SU&ATS in away games. That road success isn’t out of the ordinary for Arizona. Since the start of last season, Arizona has gone 10-1 SU&ATS during regular season away games.

The Cardinals are coming off a 20-17 loss to Philadelphia, but they covered as a home underdog of +5.5. That loss dropped their season record to 2-3 (.400). Conversely, Seattle is coming off a 39-32 loss at New Orleans.

NFL road favorites of 3.0 or less (Cardinals) with a win percentage between .250 and .600, and they’re coming off a SU loss but covered as an underdog, versus an opponent (Seahawks) coming off a SU loss by 16 or less in which they also allowed 20 points or more, resulted in the away favorites of 3.0 or less going 12-0 SU&ATS since 1986. The average victory margin came by a decisive 16.1 points per game.

Give me the Cardinals minus the small number.

Patriots @ Browns 1:00 PM ET

Game# 257-258

Play On: Browns -2.5 (5*)

The Browns are coming off a 31-29 home loss to the Chargers. New England is coming off a 29-0 home win over Detroit. New England has gone 1-5 SU and 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 road games. That includes 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS as a road underdog.

Any NFL team with a point-spread between +3.0 and -3.0 (Browns) that’s coming off a SU loss by 3 or less, versus an opponent (Patriots) that allowed 6 points or fewer in their previous contest, resulted in those teams going 38-11 SU&ATS (77.5%) since 1982.

Give me the Browns minus the points.

Ravens @ Giants 1:00 PM ET

Game# 261-262

Play On: Giants +6.0 (5*)

The Giants are coming off a 27-22 upset win over Green Bay last Sunday. That win improved their season record to a surprising 4-1 (.800). They will be facing a Baltimore team coming off a narrow 19-17 home win over Cincinnati last Sunday.

NFL non-division home underdogs playing after Game 3 that are coming off a SU win by 2 points or more, and they have win percentage of .800 or better, versus an opponent coming off a SU win by 28 or less, resulted in those home underdogs going 15-0 ATS since 1986. The average line in those 15 games was +3.1 and the underdogs won 12 of those contests straight up.

Give me the Giants plus the points.

Jets @ Packers 1:00 PM ET

Game# 259-260

Play On: Packers -7.5 (5*)

Green Bay is coming off a 27-22 loss to the Giants in their previous game. That defeat dropped their season record to 3-2. The Jets are coming off a division home underdog SU win over Miami.

NFL favorites of between 5.0 and 12.0 (Packers) with a winning record, versus an opponent (Jets) with a winning record and coming off a division home underdog SU win, resulted in those NFL favorites going 25-4 ATS (86.2%) since 1990. If those favorites were coming off a loss, this betting angle improves to 9-0 SU&ATS with an average margin of victory coming by 19.0 points per game.

Give me the Packers minus the points.

Memphis @ East Carolina 7:30 PM ET

Game# 147-148

Play On: East Carolina -5.0 (5*)

Since the start of the 2016 season, Memphis has gone an abysmal 0-12 ATS as a road underdog of 1.5 or greater and lost by an average of 18.8 points per game. Furthermore, Memphis is coming off a gut-wrenching 33-32 home loss to Houston in a game they led 32-19 with less than 2 minutes to play. It’s hard to imagine that not taking a mental toll on players and the coaching staff.

East Carolina is coming off a disappointing 24-9 loss at Tulane which evened their record at 3-3. The Pirates responded very well after their previous 2 losses with wins over Old Dominion 39-21 and South Florida 48-28. The Pirates offense averages 475 yards gained per game this season and its defense allows 1 point per 18.6 yards gained which is terrific by college football standards. This is a great spot for the Pirates.

Give me East Carolina minus the points.

Nebraska @ Purdue 7:30 ET

Game# 145-146

Play On: Purdue -14.0 (10*)

Nebraska started 1-3 but has bounced back to win their last 2 over Rutgers and Indiana. Don’t get carried away Cornhuskers fans as those 2 teams have combined to go 1-5 in Big 10 Conference play. This is the same Nebraska team that lost 49-14 to Oklahoma. Since then, Oklahoma lost its next 3 and were outscored by an average of 29.0 points per game. They also lost to Georgia Southern at home in a game they were a 23.5-point favorite and versus Northwestern in the Big 10 opener and once again as a double-digit favorite.

Purdue is 4-2 on the season and is arguably one of the best 2-loss teams in the country. Their only losses came to #18 Syracuse (5-0) and #10 Penn State (5-0). As a matter of fact, those 2 defeats came by a combined 6 points. The Boilermakers are coming off back-to-back SU road underdog wins at Minnesota (4-1) and Maryland 4-2). Purdue has played a much tougher schedule than Nebraska at this point. The Boilermakers are much better than their record indicates, and they will make sure that’s known in this contest.

Give me Purdue minus the points.

Oklahoma State @ TCU 3:30 ET

Game# 185-186

Play On: TCU -3.5 (5*)

TCU is coming off a 38-31 road win over previously unbeaten Kansas and improved to a perfect 5-0 on the season. Oklahoma State is coming off a 41-31 home win over Texas Tech and they also remain undefeated. TCU will be out to revenge last season’s embarrassing 63-17 loss at Oklahoma State. This sets up a very profitable college football betting angle displayed below.

Any undefeated home favorite of 4.5 or less that’s playing with revenge and is coming off a conference win by 24 points or less, versus an opponent with a win percentage of .727 or better and they’re coming off a conference win, resulted in those home favorites within that point-spread parameter to go 18-3 ATS (85.7%) since 2001.

Give me TCU minus the points.

Iowa State @ Texas 12:00 ET

Game# 187-188

Play On: Texas -15.5 (5*)

Texas will be playing with big time revenge after losing to Iowa State in each of the previous 3 meetings. I say this because it’s unlikely that Texas will take their foot off the gas peddle even if they possess a comfortable lead.

Texas will be facing an Iowa State team with anemic offensive numbers. As a matter of fact, the Cyclones have scored 11 points or fewer in 3 of their 6 games this season. Conversely, Texas has allowed 20 points or fewer in 5 of its 6 games. Additionally, the Texas offense unlike Iowa State has been dynamic on most occasions thus far. Case in point, the Longhorns have scored 34 points or more in 5 of 6 games with the lone exception coming in a 20-19 loss to #3 Alabama. This isn’t a good matchup for Iowa State even despite of their stellar defense.

Give me Texas minus the points.

Auburn @ Ole Miss 12:00 PM ET

Game# 179-180

Play On: Ole Miss -14.5 (5*)

This is another big-time revenge situation for the favorite. Ole Miss will be highly motivated to snap a 6-game losing streak to Auburn and I truly believe they’ll be more than up to the task. The #9 Rebels enter this week with a perfect 6-0 record and they’re allowing just 14.5 points and 334.2 yards per game. Their offense is no slouch as well at 39.7 points and 490.3 yards per game.

On the other side of the coin is an Auburn offense which has scored 17 points or fewer in each of their last 4 games. During that 4-game stretch, the Tigers had an awful -9 turnover differential. Throughout that identical span, Auburn’s defense allowed 213.8 yards per game. They’ll have their hands full against an Ole Miss offense which averages 242 yards rushing per game and 5.6 per running attempt. Auburn doesn’t match up well at all in this SEC contest.

Any college football conference home favorite (Ole Miss) of between 13.0 and 17.0 that’s coming off a conference away favorite cover in which they scored 41 points or more, and they have a win percentage of .750 or better, versus an opponent (Auburn) whose coming off losses in each of their previous 2 games, resulted in those conference home favorites within that exact point-spread parameter going 9-0 SU&ATS since 1981. The average margin of victory in those 9 contests came by 24.3 points per game.

Give me Ole Miss minus the points.

Penn State @ Michigan 12:00 ET

Game# 127-128

Play On: Michigan -7.0 (5*)

Any conference home favorite of 5.5 to 10.0 (Michigan) that’s playing after Game 5 and is coming off 3 straight wins which all came over conference opponents, versus a team (Penn State) coming off a conference win by 10 or more and allowed 27 points or fewer, resulted in those home favorite 17-0 SU and 16-1 ATS since 2017. The average victory margin for the home teams came by 22.9 points per game.

Give me Michigan minus the points.

UL-Lafayette @ Marshall 7:30 PM ET

Game# 101-102

Play On: Marshall -10.0 (5*)

Marshall is coming off a 28-7 win in their previous game. UL-lafatette lost each of their previous 2 games by scores of 21-17 and 20-17. These results set up into a rare but unblemished college football angle which has gone unbeaten since 1981.

Any college football home favorite of between 8.0 to 14.0 that’s coming off a win by 16 points or fewer, and they’re facing an opponent coming off back-to-back SU losses which each came by 4 points or less, resulted in those home favorites within these point-spread parameters going 7-0 SU&ATS since 1981. The average victory margin by the home favorites in those contests came by an average of 23.7 points per game.

Give me Marshall minus the points.

Raiders @ Chiefs 8:15 PM ET

Game# 479-480

Play On: Raiders +8.0 (5*)

This sets up as a potential flat spot for Kansas City. They’re coming off a 41-31 win at Tampa Bay in their previous game which avenged their 2021 Super Bowl loss to the Bucs. Next up for the Chiefs is what figures to be a mega-hyped home game versus a Buffalo team which is, and continues to be, the favorite to win the AFC. Sandwiched between those 2 contests is a game versus the 1-3 Las Vegas Raiders who they swept last season by blowout scores of 48-9 and 41-14. By the way, the Chiefs are 0-3 ATS in their last 3 regular season games as a home favorite of 9.0 or less versus an opponent with a win percentage of .750 or less. All 3 of those contests took place last season and Kansas City lost 2 of those games straight up.

The Raiders are coming off their first win of the season after last week’s 32-23 win over Denver in a game they covered as a 2.5-point home favorite. Since the start of last season, Las Vegas has gone 4-0 SU&ATS as an away underdog of between 4.0 to 9.5. The average line in those 4 contests was +6.5 and the underdog Raiders won all 4 SU by an average of 6.3 points per game.

Any NFL division away underdog of between 5.5 to 9.5 that’s coming off a dive home favorite ATS win in which they covered by 17.5 or less, and they’re facing a team that allowed 13 points or more in their previous game, resulted in those away underdogs going 15-0 ATS since 1994. Those away underdogs also went 8-6-1 SU as well.

Give me the Raiders plus the points.

Bengals @ Ravens 8:20 PM ET

Game# 477-478

Play On: Bengals +3.5 (10*)

Baltimore is a mentality fragile team right now. They’re 0-2 at home this season while blowing leads of 17 versus Buffalo and 21 points against Miami in doing so. This will be their first meeting with Cincinnati this season after losing twice versus the Bengals last year by scores of 41-21 and 41-17. The Ravens defense has looked vulnerable in 3 of their 4 games this season and I look for Cincinnati’s offense to expose them once again.

After starting the season with a pair of narrow 3-point losses, Cincinnati has roared back with 2 straight wins and covered both of those contests as a favorite. It worth noting the obvious of Cincinnati having 3 days more rest than Baltimore heading into this matchup. This is a Bengals team that’s also gone an extremely profitable 10-5 SU and 12-3 ATS during its last 15 away games. That includes 9-0 ATS and 7-2 SU if they were an underdog of 2.5 or greater in those contests.

Any NFL division road underdog of 3.5 or less that’s playing in Games 3 through 8, and is playing an opponent (Ravens) who will be playing with double revenge, resulted in those away underdogs going 12-0 SU&ATS since 2009. Now only did the away dogs cover all 12 contests but they won all of them SU by an average of 11.0-points per game. Give me the Bengals plus the points for a Top Play wager.

Steelers @ Bills 1:00 PM ET

Game# 457-458

Play On: Buffalo -14.0 (5*)

Since winning at Cincinnati in their season opener, Pittsburgh has lost 3 consecutive games in a row. Rookie 1st round draft choice Kenny Pickett will make his first career NFL start on Sunday. He will be doing so in one of the most hostile environments that NFL visiting teams are subjected to. Pickett came on in relief of Mitch Trurbisky last week and went 10-13 for 120 yards. However, although that performance line looks impressive, he had 0 touchdown passes and his only 3 incompletions were all interceptions. During their 1-3 start to the season, Pittsburgh is being outgained by an average of 104.2 yards per game. Under head coach Mike Tomlin, Pittsburgh is 0-6 SU&ATS in their last 6 on the road following a SU loss in its previous contest and was outscored by an average of 14.7 points per game.

The Bills will be missing a minimum 4 starters on Sunday. However, we’ve seen very little if any line movement, and they possess as good or better, quality depth than any team in the NFL. Buffalo is 3-1 thus far and is outgaining opponents by an average of 178.0 yards per game. Under head coach Sean McDermott, Buffalo is 7-0 SU and 5-0-2 ATS in their last 7 as a home favorite of 10.0 or more and outscored those opponents by an average of 21.7 points per game.

Any NFL home favorite of 10.5 or greater (Buffalo) with a winning record, versus an opponent (Steelers) coming off losses in each of their previous 2 games and they have a win percentage of .250 to .400, resulted in those home favorites going 19-0 SU&ATS since 2013. The average victory margin in those 19 contests came by an average of 23.4 points per game.

Give me Buffalo minus the points.

Titans @ Commanders 1:00 PM ET

Game# 463-464

Play On: Commanders +1.0 (5*)

Since winning their opening game versus Jacksonville, Washington has gone a dismal 0-3 SU&ATS and lost by an average of 13.3 points per game. Nevertheless, they’re just a 1.5-point underdog versus an opponent that was the #1 seed in the AFC last season, and is coming off wins in their last 2 games. It’s seldom as easy as it looks when it comes to NFL betting.

Tennessee is coming of 2 consecutive SU wins, and both came as underdogs. NFL teams haven’t fared well at all when in that exact situation over the past 5 decades. Specifically speaking, NFL teams coming off 2 consecutive SU underdog wins have gone a dismal 39-111-1 SU and 56-95 ATS (37.1%) since 1982 when facing non-division opponents.

Give me the Commanders plus the small number.

Washington State @ USC 7:30 PM ET

Game# 367-368

Play On: USC -12.5 (10*)

This USC team continues to get better every week under new head coach Lincoln Riley. If the Trojans have a glaring weakness, it’s defending the run. Conversely, although Washington’s offense has been productive in the air, the Cougars have struggled to get any consistency in their running game. During its 4 games versus FBS opponents this season, Washington State has averaged just 81.5 yards rushing per game while averaging a paltry 3.3 yards per attempt.  During their only game versus a ranked opponent this season, Washington State allowed 44 points and surrendered 624 yards in a home loss to Oregon.

Here's another key football handicapping component that stands out in this contest. Throughout their first 5 games, USC has yet to commit a turnover while also forcing opponents to turn it over 14 times. On the other hand, Washington State has committed 12 turnovers over their first 5 games. This isn’t a good matchup for the Washington State Cougars. Yes, the Cougars are 4-1 but their win have all come versus unranked teams that have been less than impressive to start their seasons.

Any college football undefeated home favorite of -4.0 to -19.0 that’s coming off a home win, and they’re facing an opponent with a win percentage of .600 or better, resulted in those home favorites within this point-spread parameters going 11-0 ATS since 2018. The average victory margin in those 11 contests came by a decisive 22.5 points per game.

Give me USC minus the points for a 10* Top Play.

Utah @ UCLA 3:30 PM ET

Game# 367-368

Play On: UCLA +3.5

Utah is coming off a 42-16 home win over Oregon State and covered easily as a 10.5-point favorite. UCLA is coming off a 40-32 home win over Washington and did so as a 3.5-point underdog. That win improved the Bruins season record to 5-0.

Any college football conference home underdog of 7.5 or less whose won 3 or more games in a row, and their previous game was against a conference opponent, versus a team (Utah) coming off a SU&ATS win, resulted in those home underdogs going 16-1 ATS (94.4%) since 2018. The home underdogs went 14-3 SU as well.

Give me UCLA plus the points.

Louisville @ Virginia 12:00 PM ET

Game# 315-316

Play On: Virginia +3.0 (5*)

Louisville is coming off a 34-33 loss at Boston College in a game they closed as a 13.5-point favorite. That upset loss dropped their season record to 2-3 (.400). That record includes 0-3 SU&ATS versus fellow ACC teams. Virginia enters this week 2-3 while going 0-3 on the road but they’re 2-0 at home.

Any college football home team (Virginia) with a win percentage of .363 or better, versus an opponent coming off a conference upset loss as a favorite of -10.0 to -17.0, and that road team has a losing record, resulted in those home teams 23-2 SU (92%) since 2007. The SU betting angle takes on added significance since it backs the hone underdog Virginia Cavaliers.

Give me Virginia plus the points.

TCU @ Kansas 12:00 PM ET

Game# 337-338

Play On: Kansas +7.0 (5*)

I was on TCU last week as a 6.0-point home underdog and they came through after blowing out Oklahoma 55-24. That win improved TCU to 4-0 on the season. However, my over 2 decades of experience reminds me that teams coming off an upset win at home versus a nationally ranked opponent are more times than not flat in their following game. I firmly believe that mental aspect will come into play when they travel to Lawrence, Kansas to take on an upstart Jayhawks team which has started the season 5-0.

Any college football home underdog (Kansas) who’s undefeated and is playing after Game 5 of the season, and they won 24 or less of their previous 28 home games, versus an opponent coming off a SU win and they have a win percentage of .833 or better, resulted in those home underdogs going 18-1 ATS (94.2%) since 1982. Those home underdogs also went 17-2 SU in those 19 contests.

Give me Kansas plus the points.

Tennessee @ LSU 12:00 PM ET

Game# 377-378

Play On: LSU +3.0 (5*)

Tennessee is coming off a 38-33 home win over Florida last week which improved their season record to 5-0. The bad news, they allowed Florida to rack up 594 yards of total offense.

Since losing their season opener to Florida State 24-23, LSU has reeled off 4 consecutive wins and includes a 2-0 start in the SEC. LSU played a highly ranked team at home earlier this season and came away with a convincing 31-16 win over #24 Mississippi State. LSU also beat Auburn 21-17 on the road during its previous game.

Any college football home team with a win percentage of .800 or better that’s coming off a conference away win, and is playing after Game 3 of the season, and they’re facing a conference opponent with a win percentage of .800 or better, resulted in those home teams going 41-9 SU (82%) since 2018. If the home teams were an underdog of 7.5 or less, they were an extremely profitable 10-2 SU and 11-1 ATS.

Give me LSU plus the points.

Houston @ Memphis 7:30 PM ET

Game# 305-306

Play On: Houston +3.0 (5*)

Memphis lost 49-23 in their season opener at #23 Mississippi State. Since then, they have strung together 4 straight wins.  It must be noted, their 4 wins came against opponents with a combined 8-12 (.400) record and none of those teams currently have a winning record. Memphis has also benefitted from a +9 turnover margin thus far. Houston on the other hand is exactly even in that category and against far better competition than Memphis has faced.

Houston was a Top 25 ranked team in the AP Preseason college football poll. Nevertheless, the Cougars are off to a disappointing 2-3 start to the season. However, they have faced an extremely tough schedule to date with their five opponents currently possessing a cumulative 18-7 (.720) record. Furthermore, 2 of their 3 losses came by exactly 3 points to Tulane (4-1) and at Texas Tech (3-2) in overtime. The other came against #19 Kansas (5-0). Their 2 wins came over Rice and UTSA who both currently are at 3-2 on the season. Give me Houston plus the points.

SMU @ Central Florida 7:00 PM ET

Game# 421-422

Play On: SMU +3.0 (5*)

Central Florida is coming off a 27-10 home win over Georgia Tech. The victory margin in that contest was a bit misleading since the Golden Knights were outgained 452-333 in that contest. UCF relies heavily on their running game which has encompassed 62.5% of their offensive plays this season in addition to 57% of their total yards. That is a winning formula when playing with the lead. However, they showed vulnerability in the 2nd half of their 20-14 home loss to Louisville when their running game stalled, and their defense couldn’t get off the field. Louisville forced the Golden Knights out of their comfort zone evidenced by them forced to throw the ball on 47.2% of their offensive plays.

SMU is coming off a bye week that was preceded by 2 close losses against quality non-conference competition. They lost 42-34 to #17 TCU (4-0) and fell short in a 34-27 defeat at Maryland (4-1). Those losses evened the Mustangs record at 2-2. The SMU offense has been dynamic thus far while amassing 453 yards of total offense in all 4 of their contests while also averaging a healthy 38.5 points scored per game. If I may steal a boxer’s cliché, you most time than not have a puncher’s chance when betting on an underdog with high-powered offense. Additionally, SMU has faced the tougher competition compared to UCF and the Mustangs are coming off a bye week.

Any college football conference away underdog of 4.0 or less (SMU) who is coming off 2 consecutive losses, and is coming off a bye week, and they possess a win percentage of less than .545, resulted in those away underdogs going 32-9 ATS (78%) since 1980. Those underdogs also went 30-11 SU in those contests. If they were facing an opponent (UCF) coming off a SU win this college football ATS betting angle improves to 12-1 ATS (92.3%) and 11-2 SU. Give me SMU plus the points.

Patriots @ Packers 4:25 PM ET

Game# 275-276

Play On: Patriots +10.5 (10*)

I may be in the minority, but I’m not as high on New England starting quarterback Mac Jones as most others are. As a matter of fact, I truly believe that there’s very little drop off by going to the veteran Booby Hoyer who will get the start due to Jones being on the shelf with an ankle injury. New England is coming off last Sunday’s 37-26 home loss to Baltimore. Under Bill Belichick, New England has gone 26-6 SU&ATS following a loss in which they allowed 31 points or more. That also includes 13-1 SU in their last 14 if they’re coming off a home defeat.

Green Bay is 2-1 thus far but it’s been the Packers defense that has far outplayed their offensive teammates. The Packers are averaging just 16.0 points scored per game. Furthermore, they are averaging 1.0 point scored per 22.2 yards gained which is terrible. They’ll be facing a solid New England defensive unit which is surrendering only 314.7 yards per game.

NFL underdogs versus teams that average 17.0 or fewer points scored per game are 21-3 ATS (87.5%) since 2018. They also went 14-11 SU during those contests.

Give me the Patriots plus the points for a 10* Top Play.

Cardinals @ Panthers 4:05 PM ET

Game# 271-272

Play On: Panthers +1.0 (5*)

Arizona has gone 9-1 SU&ATS during its last 10 regular season away games. Nonetheless, the Cardinals are coming off a 20-12 division home loss to the Rams which left them with a 1-2 record. Arizona is 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 away following a division home loss and were outscored by 17.3 points per game.

Carolina is coming off a 22-14 home win over New Orleans which improved their season mark to 1-2. The Panthers 2 losses have come by a combined 5 points. So, with a little bit of luck they could very easily be 3-0. The Panthers are a poor 7-22 during their last 29 at home, and last week’s home win over New Orleans snapped an 0-7 SU&ATS skid in games played at Charlotte. Additionally, 6 of those previously mentioned 7 home wins have come when their point-spread is +3.0 to -3.0.

Any NFL home team with a win percentage of .250 to .400 that’s coming off a win in which they scored 22 points or more, versus an opponent with a losing record and is coming off a loss in which they scored 21 points or fewer, resulted in those home teams going 17-1 SU (94.4%) since 2016. If those home teams were -2.5 to +4.5, they were a perfect 6-0 SU&ATS with an average victory margin of 8.8 points per game. Give me the Panthers.

Titans @ Colts 1:00 PM ET

Game# 253-254

Play On: Colts -3.5 (5*)

Tennessee’s offensive strength is their running game. However, that aspect of their game has been disappointing throughout their first 3 games of the season. It doesn’t get any easier against a Colts defense which has held their first 3 opponents to a mere 77 yards rushing per game and a paltry 2.6 yards per attempt. Furthermore, after trading away start wide receiver A.J. Brown to Philadelphia during the offseason, the Titans sorely are lacking a receiver that can threaten opponents in the deep vertical passing game. Another concern for Tennessee is their defense is allowing 145 yards per game rushing and will have the unenviable task of trying to slow down star Colts running back Jonathan Taylor.

Give me the Colts minus the points.

Jaguars @ Eagles 1:00 PM ET

Game# 265-266

Play On: Eagles -6.5 (5*)

Philadelphia is coming off last Sunday’s 24-8 win over Washington and covered easily as a 6.0-point favorite. Jacksonville is coming off a 38-10 road win over the Los Angeles Chargers in a game they closed as a 6.5-point underdog. This sets up an unbeaten NFL ATS betting angle which is shown below.

Any NFL home favorite of 10.5 or less (Eagles) that’s coming off an away favorite ATS win in which they covered by 9.5-points or greater, versus an opponent (Jaguars) off an away underdog SU win and has a win percentage of .416 or better, resulted in those home favorites going 11-0 ATS. The average victory margin for those home favorites was 15.5 points per game. Give me the Eagles minus the points.

Liberty @ Old Dominion 6:00 PM ET

Game# 137-138

Play On: Old Dominion +3.5 (5*)

Old Dominion is coming off a 29-26 home win over Arkansas State. The Monarchs are 2-0 ATS this season as a single-digit underdog. They upset Virginia Tech in their season opener as a 6.0-point underdog. Additionally, as a 9.0-point road underdog at Virginia, they lost 16-14 with the Cavaliers kicking a game winning field goal with only 0:02 left to play in the game.

Any college football home underdog of 6.0 or less that’s coming off a home win by 3-points or fewer in which they scored 32 points or less, and they’re playing in Games 2 through 6, resulted in those home underdogs going 25-1 ATS (95.8%) since 1985. Those home underdogs also went 22-4 SU in those contests. Give me Old Dominion plus the points.

Wake Forest @ Florida State 3:30 PM ET

Game# 123-124

Play On: Florida State -6.5 (10*)

Florida State is off to a 4-0 start to the season which includes wins over LSU (3-1) in a game played in New Orleans, and conference victories at Louisville as well as last week’s 44-14 blowout of Boston College.

Wake Forest is coming off last Saturday’s emotional and heartbreaking 44-38 overtime loss to #5 ranked Clemson. There’s very little chance they can come close to matching the intensity level they exhibited last week, especially so because of the nature in which they lost, and now playing another national ranked team on the road. Additionally, this is an opportunity for Florida State to make a huge statement to the nation that Seminoles football is once again highly relevant. I think Florida State will be more than up to the task.

Any college football home favorite (Florida State) that averages 440 yards or more of total offense per game, and they averaged 7.25 yards or more per offensive yards per play throughout their previous 2 contests, versus an opponent (Wake Forest) who defensively allows 330 to 390 yards per game, resulted in those home teams going an exceptional 71-25 ATS (74%) since 1992. Those home teams also went 93-5 SU during those contests and outscored the visiting teams by an average of 25.9 points per game. Give me Florida State minus the points for a 10* Top Play winner.

Oklahoma @ TCU 12:00 PM ET

Game# 183-184

Play On: TCU +6.5 (5*)

TCU is off to a 3-0 start to the season and they’re averaging an impressive 510 yards of total offense per game. During their previous 2 contests the Horned Frogs averaged an excellent 7.48 yards per offensive play. Conversely, the Oklahoma defense which has allowed 361.8 yards per game during its 3-1 start to the season. This sets up an awesome college football betting angle displayed below.

Any college football home team (TCU) that averages 440 yards or more of total offense per game, and they averaged 7.25 yards or more per offensive yards per play throughout their previous 2 contests, versus an opponent who defensively allows 330 to 390 yards per game, resulted in those home teams going an exceptional 99-13 SU (88.4%) since 1992. This college football SU betting angle takes on added significance since it supports the home underdog in this matchup. We won’t get greedy and take the points as an additional bonus. Give me TCU plus the points.

Washington @ UCLA 10:30 PM ET

Game# 111-112

Play On: UCLA +3.5 (5*)

Both teams come in with identical 4-0 records. UCLA is coming off a convincing 45-17 win at Colorado. Washington is coming off a 40-22 home win over Stanford and covered as a 14.0-point favorite. Any college football conference home pick or underdog of 6.5 or less (UCLA) that’s coming off a road win by 28 points or more, and has a win percentage of .800 or better, versus an opponent (Washington) with a winning record who’s coming off a SU&ATS win, resulted in those home teams going 9-0 ATS since 2018. Those home teams also went 8-1 SU in those contests. The lone SU loss came on 9/29/2018 when Penn State sustained a 27-26 defeat to Ohio State, but they covered as a 3.0-point home underdog. Those 9 home teams in this identical betting scenario also outscored their opponents by an average of 8.3 points per game. Give me UCLA plus the points.

UTSA @ Middle Tennessee State 7:30 PM ET

Game# 107-108

Play On: Middle Tennessee State +4.0 (5*)

The UTSA Roadrunners enter this game at 2-2. Their 2 victories were 41-38 over Army (overtime) and last week’s 52-24 thrashing of Texas Southern who plays at the FCS level. However, that Texas Southern win comes with a huge red flag as the Roadrunners defense allowed 464 yards in the contest. That marks the 3rd consecutive game in which the Roadrunners stop unit surrendered 459 yards or more and in addition to allowing an alarmingly high 34.3 points per game during that stretch.

After beginning the season with a 44-7 blowout loss to James Madison (4-0), MTSU has gone 3-0 SU&ATS. As a matter of fact, last Saturday they upset then #25 Miami 45-31 as a large 26.0-point road underdog. The Blue Raiders amassed an impressive 507 yards of total offense in that stunning result. MTSU also has an impressive turnover margin of +5 during their current 3-game win streak.

Any college football home underdog of 7.0 or less (MTSU) that’s coming off 3 or more wins in a row, and they scored 42 points or more in their previous game, versus an opponent (UTSA) coming off a SU win, resulted in those home underdogs going a perfect 15-0 ATS since 2016. Those underdogs also won 12 of those 15 games straight up. Give me Middle Tennessee State plus the points.

Dolphins @ Bengals 8:20 PM ET

Game# 101-102

Play On: Bengals -4.0 (10*)

Miami is coming off a physically grueling 21-19 home upset win over Buffalo. That game was played in extremely hot and humid conditions. Now they have a task of facing the AFC defending champion Cincinnati Bengals on the road and with just 3 days of rest. Stop and think for a second, we have a 3-0 Dolphins team that’s better than a field goal underdog, and they’re facing an opponent who’s 1-2. My educated guess is public betting will side with the underdog for just that reason alone. It’s very seldom that simple or easy when it comes to sports betting. Like I’ve said on numerous occasions and it’s worth repeating. Think like an oddsmaker and you will be much better for it.

By the way, since the start of last season, Cincinnati has gone 10-3 SU and 11-2 ATS when facing teams with a winning record. This will be their first game of the season versus a team with a winning record. The Bengals are coming off a much-needed 27-12 road win over the Jets while easily covering as a 6.5-point favorite.

Any NFL non-division home favorite of 3.0 or more (Bengals) with a win percentage of .900 or less that’s playing after Game 3 of the season, versus an opponent (Dolphins) coming off a division home underdog SU win, resulted in those home favorites going 19-2 ATS (90.5%) since 1985. Give me the Bengals minus the points for my NFL Thursday Game of the Month.

San Francisco @ Denver 8:20 PM ET

Game# 487-488

Play On: Denver +2.0 (10*)

Denver has an extremely successful win rate when playing at home during the first 3 games of the season while going 38-9 SU (80.9%). Denver is coming off a 16-9 home win over Houston last Sunday but failed to cover as a sizable 10-5-point favorite. The 49ers are coming off an easy 27-7 home win over Seattle last week.

NFL home teams that are coming off a SU win in which they failed to cover as a favorite, and they’re playing in Games 2 through 5, and they’re facing an opponent coming off a division win, resulted in those home teams going 26-3 SU (89.7%) since 1990. If their road opponent’s division win came by 9 points or more, that identical NFL SU betting angle improves to 14-0 SU since 1990. The straight up betting angle takes on added value because it backs the home underdog Denver Broncos in this matchup. Give me the Denver Broncos plus the small number for a 10* Top Play.

Bengals @ Jets 1:00 PM ET

Game# 465-466

Play On: Jets +6.0 (5*)

The Bengals find themselves in a rare situation as an away favorite and coming off a pair of 3-point losses. Any NFL away favorite of 6.0 or more that’s coming of 2 consecutive losses by 3 points or fewer, resulted in those away favorites going 0-4 SU&ATS since 1980 and were defeated by an average of 10.3 points per game.

The Jets are coming off a remarkable and unlikely comeback win last Sunday in Cleveland. They overcame a 30-17 deficit to win 31-30 after scoring 2 touchdowns with less than 2 minutes to play. They closed as a 6.5-point underdog in that contest. Any NFL non-division home underdog of 5.0 to 8.5 that’s coming off an away underdog SU win, and they’re playing in Game 2 through Game 6 of their season, resulted in those home underdogs going 21-1 ATS (95.5%) since 1980. Those underdogs also went a more than respectable 11-11 SU during those contests. Give me the Jets plus the points.

Lions @ Vikings 1:00 ET

Game# 469-470

Play On: Lions +6.0 (5*)

The Lions are coming off an impressive 36-27 home win over Washington. Conversely, Minnesota is coming off a 24-7 Monday night loss at Philadelphia. The Lions have gone 3-0 ATS in their last 3 versus the Vikings. They went just 1-2 SU in those contests but both losses each came by narrow 2-point margins.

Any division away underdog that’s coming off a win in which they scored 35 points or more, versus an opponent coming off a loss by 11 or more and they scored 14 or less, resulted in those division away underdogs going 14-0 ATS since 1986. Those underdogs also went a stellar 10-4 SU as well. Give me Detroit plus the points.

USC @ Oregon State 9:30 PM ET

Game# 375-376

Play On: Oregon State +6.0 (10*)

Oregon State is coming off a 68-28 win over Montana State which improved their season record to 3-0. Since 1980, any college football home team that’s 3-0 to start the season and is coming off a win by 35 points or more, resulted in those home teams going 49-5 SU (90.7%). This SU betting angle takes on added significance since it supports the underdog Oregon State Beavers in this matchup. USC is a +10 turnover differential during it 3-0 start, but Oregon State isn’t too shabby at +5 in that category. Give me Oregon State plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Minnesota @ Michigan State 3:30 PM ET

Game# 337-338

Play On: Minnesota -3.0 (5*)

The Gophers enter this matchup with an unblemished 3-0 record after recording 3 home wins. They outgained those 3 opponents by an enormous 384.4 yards per game and displayed a dominating running game while doing so. Since the start of last season, Minnesota is 6-0 SU&ATS when coming off a home win and won by 30.2 points per game. Minnesota has gone 3-0 SU&ATS as a conference home favorite of 8.0 or less under current head coach P.J. Fleck and won by a decisive margin of 25.0 points per game. Conversely, Michigan State is coming off a humbling 39-28 loss at Washington in a game they also the Huskies to rack up 503 yards of total offense.

Any college football away team with a point-spread of +1.5 to -4.5 playing in a Game 4, and is 3-0 to start the season, and they allowed 23 points or fewer in their previous games which came versus a non-conference opponent, resulted in those away teams going 11-0 SU&ATS since 1987. The average margin of victory was by 12.0 points per game. Give me Minnesota minus the points.

Clemson @ Wake Forest 12:00 PM ET

Game# 339-340

Play On: Wake Forest +7.0 (5*)

Talk about revenge, Wake Forest has lost their last 13 games versus Clemson and 12 of those defeats came by 10 points or more. However, most of those matchups involved Wake Forest teams not as good as this current edition and Clemson teams much better than this one in 2022. The Demon Deacons have established a strong home field in recent years. They’ve won 11 straight at home and are 17-2 in their last 19 in Winston-Salem, North Carolina. That certainly bodes well when considering they’re a home underdog on Saturday. The Demon Deacons were caught looking ahead in last week’s 37-36 home win over Liberty in a game they closed as a 17.0-point favorite. Give me Wake Forest plus the points.

Duke @ Kansas 12:00 PM ET

Game# 361-362

Play On: Duke +7.5 (5*)

Someone is going to come out of this game with a 4-0 record. Raise your hand if you predicted that kind of start from either team. Now your hand down if you raised because you’re either a pathological or blatant liar. Kansas is coming off upset wins as an away underdog at Houston and West Virginia. Despite their 3-0 start with 1 of those wins coming on the road, Duke is just 10-18 in their last 28 away games. The Blue Devils are at a +5 turnover differential thus far in 2022.

Since 1980, any non-conference college football away underdog of 2.5 to 9.5 that’s coming off 2 or more wins in a row, and they’ve won 11 or fewer of its last 28 road games, versus an opponent off 2 straight away underdog SU upset win, resulted in those away underdogs going 8-0 ATS. Those away underdogs also won 6 of those 8 contests straight up. Give me Duke plus the points.

Pittsburgh @ Cleveland 8:15 PM

Game# 301-302

Play On: Cleveland -4.5 (5*)

Both teams enter today with a 1-1 record, and each is coming off a loss. The Browns managed to squander a 30-17 lead with less than 2 minutes to play in a 31-30 loss to the New York Jets as a closing 6.5-point favorite. Pittsburgh is coming off a disappointing 17-14 home loss to New England. Pittsburgh is 0-5 SU&ATS in their last 5 on the road following a SU loss and lost by an average of 15.2 points per game.

Any NFL Thursday division home favorite that’s coming off a home favorite loss in which they scored 7 points or more versus an opponent with at least 1 win on the season, resulted in those home favorites going 11-1 ATS since 1980. Those home favorites were also a perfect 12-0 SU in those contests and won by an average of 12.8 points per game. Give me Cleveland minus the points.

West Virginia @ Virginia Tech 7:30 PM ET

Game# 303-304

Play On: Virginia Tech +1.5 (5*)

Virginia Tech is coming off a 27-7 win over Wofford and outgained them by 276 yards. The Hokies are 2-1 thus far and their defense has been outstanding while having allowed 12.3 points and 199.7 points per game. During West Virginia’s only 2 games versus FBS opponents this season their defense allowed 46.5 points and 402.0 yards per game.

Any college football home team that outgained their previous opponent by 275 yards or more and its defense is allowing an average of 225 or fewer yards per game, resulted in those home teams going 34-2 SU (94.2%) since 2018. That exact betting angle is also a perfect 12-0 SU since 2020. Since this college football SU betting angle supports the home underdog in this matchup it takes on even greater significance. Give me Virginia Tech plus the small number.

Chicago @ Green Bay 8:20 PM ET

Game# 287-288

Play On: Green Bay -10.0 910*)

Chicago is coming a 19-10 home win in their season opener last Sunday. However, we must avoid overreacting to that result especially after Green Bay’s double-digit defeat in their opening game. After all, Chicago is 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 trips to Green Bay and they were outscored by an average of 13.4 points per game.

Green Bay is coming off a 23-7 loss at Minnesota in a game they were thoroughly dominated. Before we stick a fork in the Packers after just 1 game, we must keep in mind how resilient this team has been following a regular season loss. Green Bay is 11-0 SU&ATS in their last 11 regular season games following a loss and won by an average of 13.4 points per contest.

Any NFL home favorite of 4.5 or more (Packers) that’s coming off an away underdog ATS loss, and they’re facing a team (Bears) coming off a home underdog SU win, resulted in those home favorite going 39-12 ATS (76.4%) since 1991. Give me the Packers minus the points for a 10* Top Play.

Washington @ Detroit 1:00 PM ET

Game# 267-268

Play On: Washington +1.5 (5*)

Detroit of is coming off a season opening 38-35 home loss to Philadelphia. The Lions lost despite rushing for 181 yards and that’s difficult to do in the NFL. However, they also allowed Philadelphia to rush for 216 yards of their own. Detroit is now a dismal 6-22 SU in their last 28 at home. The Lions are also 1-7 SU at home since 2020 when the line is +3.0 to -3.0 and were outscored by an average of 10.6 points per game.

Washington has gone a perfect 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 regular road games when the line was +3.5 to -3.5 under current head coach Ron Rivera and they won by an average of 9.0 points per game. The Commanders will look to carry the momentum over from last week’s come from behind 28-22 home win over Jacksonville.

UTSA @ Texas 8:00 PM ET

Game# 193-194

Play On: UTSA +13.0 (5*)

Texas is coming off a gut-wrenching 20-19 loss to then #1 Alabama in a game they closed as a massive 20.5-point home underdog. The Longhorns have their Big 12 Conference opener coming up next versus Texas Tech and this shapes up to be a flat spot for them emotionally on Saturday. After all, it’s just human nature when prediction Texas won’t come close to matching the intensity level and razor-sharp focus they displayed last week versus Alabama, and especially so versus an opponent from Conference USA. Furthermore, the top 2 quarterbacks on the Longhorns depth chart were injured in the Alabama loss and their 3rd stringer Maalik Murphy has been also sidelined with an undisclosed injury. They may be forced to go with 4th string quarterback Charles Wright. It’s also worth noting that star running back Bijan Robinson was also banged up and is listed as day-to-day.

Getting up emotionally for this game won’t be an issue for the UTSA Roadrunners. The Roadrunners are coming off a 41-38 overtime win at Army and opened the season with a narrow 37-35 loss to then nationally ranked Houston. This is a UTSA program which has gone 16-4 SU in their last 20 games and includes 6-1 ATS and 4-3 SU as an underdog. I went with Texas +20.5 last Saturday but this week they will be a fade. Give me UTSA plus the points.

Colorado State @ Washington State 5:00 PM ET

Game# 161-162

Play On: Washington State -16.5 (5*)

Washington State is coming off a 17-14 upset win at Wisconsin and did so as a 20.5-point underdog. They will be facing a Colorado State team coming off a 34-19 upset loss to Middle Tennessee State at home in a game they closed as a 14.5-point favorite. This sets up and extremely profitable college football betting angle displayed below.

Any college football home favorite of 11.0 to 30.0-points that coming off an upset win as a road underdog of 10.0 or greater has gone 22-1 ATS (95.6%) since 1990. If they’re facing an opponent coming off a loss, the betting angle improves to 13-0 ATS with an average victory margin of 30.9 points per game. Give me Washington State minus the points.

Florida State @ Louisville 7:30 PM ET

Game# 105-106

Play On: Louisville +3.0 (5*)

Regarding betting trends, we took advantage of a similar situation last week by taking Texas +21.0 over Alabama. The Longhorns came oh so close to winning that game outright during a 20-19 defeat. In that scenario, over 80% of betting tickets and money was wagered on Alabama. Believe it or not, the betting trend percentages in this game exceed last week’s previously mentioned occurrence, and favors the small road favorite Florida State Seminoles. It’s worth repeating, more times than not when the betting percentages exceed 80% to one side, betting the other team is the right move.

Florida State is coming off a 24-23 win over LSU last week in a game they closed as a 4.0-point underdog. However, let’s keep it real Seminoles backers, that’s an LSU team that was playing in their season opener while playing with a new coaching staff and large turnover in player personnel. The Seminoles also held a slight edge in respect to already having a game under the belt after defeating Duquesne in Week 0. This will be just the 4th time since 2018 that Florida State has been a road favorite. The Seminoles went 0-3 ATS and 1-2 SU during the previous 3 in that exact role.

Louisville showed a ton of character during last week’s 20-14 win at Central Florida in a contest they closed as a 5.5-point underdog. They Cardinals were down 14-7 in that contest, and it was on the heels of a dismal performance at Syracuse the week before which resulted in a 31-7 blowout loss. Yet, they outscored UCF 13-0 during 2nd half action to pull off a much-needed upset win. Look for them to carry that momentum into this week’s home opener. Give me Louisville plus the points.

LA Chargers @ Kansas City 8:15 PM ET

Game# 103-104

Play On: LA Chargers +4.0 (5*)

Since taking over as head coach in Kansas City, Any Reid has gone and outstanding 60-23 at home. However, 4 of those 23 home losses have come to the Chargers. He’s 5-4 SU and 3-6 ATS versus the Chargers at home. The current total in this game is 54.5. The Chiefs are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 home games when the total was 49.5 or greater. That includes 0-3 ATS and 1-2 SU if they were facing a divisional opponent. Both teams are coming off impressive opening game win over opponents that were playoff teams a season ago.

Under current head coach Brandon Staley, the Chargers went 3-1 SU&ATS as an away underdog last season which included a 30-24 win at Kansas City as a 7.0-point underdog. Give me the Chargers plus the points.

The Chiefs are coming off 44-21 win at Arizona in which they covered as a 6.0-point favorite. They’re now 24-8 in their last 32 games. Since 2003, any NFL away underdog (Chargers) of 6.0 or less, versus an opponent (Chiefs) coming off an away favorite ATS win it covered by 3.0 or more, and they’ve won 18 or more of their last 32 games, resulted in those away underdogs going 22-3 ATS (88%). The away underdog also won 19 of those 25 games straight up. Give me the Chargers plus the points.

Denver @ Seattle 8:15 PM ET

Game# 481-482

Play On: Seattle +6.5 (5*)

Seattle isn’t a very good team at this juncture. Conversely, I believe the Russell Wilson factor in Denver certainly makes Denver better, but not to the point where they’re a better than touchdown road favorite in a season opening nationally televised Monday night game. Besides, under current head coach Pete Carroll, the Seahawks are 13-1 ATS and 10-4 SU in their last 14 as a home underdog of +3.0 or greater.

Seattle went 7-10 last season and is also 19-13 during it previous 32 at home. Any Monday night non-division home underdog (Seattle) that won 7 or more games during regular season action the year before and has also won 17 or more of its previous 32 at home, resulted in those home underdogs going 7-0 ATS since 1987. Those underdogs also won 5 of those 7 contests straight up. Give me Seattle plus the points.

Tampa Bay @ Dallas 8:20 PM ET

Game# 481-488

Play On: Dallas +3.0 (-120) (5*)

Dallas is coming off last year’s successful 12-5 regular season campaign. Since 1985, NFL Game 1 home teams that won 12 or more regular season games the year before are a superb 55-19 (74.3%) SU. Those SU results take on added betting value since the home team in this instance is an underdog. The Cowboys will also be playing with revenge stemming from last season’s opening game 31-29 loss at Tampa Bay. Tom Brady took a brief sabbatical during training camp to attend to family matters. I am skeptical about how mentally prepared he is going into this season even as great as his illustrious career has been. Since 2018, Dallas is a perfect 4-0 SU&ATS as a conference home underdog and averaged outscoring those opponents by a decisive margin of 13.5 points per game. Give me Dallas plus the points.

Green Bay @ Minnesota 4:25 PM ET

Game# 475-476

Play On: Minnesota +1.5 (5*)

I am not crazy about the Green Bay Packers wide receiver group and especially when compared to what they had at that position in recent years. The loss of Devante Adams who signed with Las Vegas was a huge blow.

Minnesota is coming off a disappointing 8-9 season which ended the 8-year head coaching tenure of Mike Zimmer. However, they still have top shelf offensive skilled players that can create opposing defenses nightmares.

Any NFL home team (Minnesota) that’s facing a division opponent in their season opener, and they won 8 or more regular season games the year before, resulted in those home teams going 83-30 SU (73.4%) since 1985. The SU results take on added significance since the Vikings are currently a small underdog. Furthermore, if those home teams were an underdog of +6.0 or less, and they were facing an opponent which won 11 or more regular season games the year before, those home teams went 7-0 ATS and 6-1 SU since 1985. Give me the Vikings plus the small number.

Kansas City @ Arizona 4:25 PM ET

Game# 471-472

Play On: Arizona +7.0 (-120) (5*)

Since Kliff Kingsbury head coaching tenure began in 2019, the Cardinals have been quite successful in getting off to good starts. Specifically speaking, during that time span Arizona has gone 10-2 ATS and 8-3-1 SU as an underdog during its first 8 games of the season. Furthermore, since 2020, Arizona is a perfect 5-0 SU&ATS as an underdog in Games 1 through 8 and won by an extremely impressive 19.4 points per contest.

The Cardinals franchise has enjoyed much success as a non-conference home underdog by going 21-7 ATS (75%) and 19-8-1 SU. If they were an underdog of 2.5 or greater in those contests, the numbers improve to 18-4 (81.8%) ATS and 16-5-1 SU. Give me the Cardinals plus the points.

NY Giants @ Tennessee 4:25 PM ET

Game# 477-478

Play On: NY Giants +5.5 (10*)

Tennessee has won 11 or more games in each of their previous 3 season. As a matter of fact, they were the AFC #1 seed last year entering the playoffs after recording a 12-5 regular season record. Nonetheless, their regular season win total over or under has dropped to 8.5. That speaks volumes to me regarding how the oddsmakers project the Titans to be a mediocre team at best.

The Giants begin the Brian Daboll head coaching era on the road and as an underdog at Tennessee. Daboll inherits a team that went a poor 4-13 a season ago. As a matter of fact, since 2018, the Giants have gone a combined 19-46 and never won more than 6 games in a season. However, New York has gone an extremely profitable 12-2 ATS in their last 14 as an away underdog of 6.5 or less during that same time span.

Any NFL Week 1 away underdog of 6.5 or less (Giants) who won 6 games or fewer in the previous season, resulted in those away underdogs going 45-13 (77.6%) since 2000. Give me the NY Giants plus the points for a 10* Top Play.

Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati 1:00 PM ET

Game# 461-462

Play On: Pittsburgh +7.5 (5*)

Since the start of the 2016 season, when play in games 1 through 9, Pittsburgh has gone an extremely profitable 10-2 ATS (83.3%) and 9-3 SU as an away underdog of 9.5 or less. The Steelers will have revenge on their mind after being swept in both regular season meetings against Cincinnati last season. The Steelers finished an uninspiring 8-8-1 last season but somehow it was good enough for the last Wild Card berth in the AFC.

Any Game 1 division away underdog of 7.0 or less that lost both regular season meetings to their current opponent in the previous year, resulted in those away underdogs going 18-6 ATS (75%) since 1998. Furthermore, if those division away teams were an underdog of +3.5 to +6.5, then that exact NFL betting angle improves to 16-2 ATS (88.9%). Give me Pittsburgh plus the points.

Houston @ Texas Tech 4:00 PM ET

Game# 365-366

Play On: Houston +3.5 (5*)

Texas Tech is coming off last Saturday’s 63-10 rout of Murray State and covered as a 38.0-point home favorite. Since 2020 the Red Raiders 0-4 SU&ATS off an ATS cover and when facing an opponent coming off a SU win. Texas Tech lost those 4 contests by an average of 25.6 points per game.

Houston went 12-2 last season losing only to College Football Playoff participant Cincinnati and ironically enough Texas Tech. So, obviously the Cougars will be out for big time revenge. They almost got looking ahead in last week’s season opening 37-35 road win versus defending Conference USA champion UTSA. That was an experienced UTSA team that went 12-2 last season and began 2021 with a perfect 11-0 record. Give me Houston plus the points.

Tennessee @ Pittsburgh 3:30 PM ET

Game# 347-348

Play On: Pittsburgh +6.5 (10*)

Tennessee is coming off an encouraging 59-10 home blowout win in their season opener last Saturday and easily covered as a 37.0-point favorite. Regardless of that emphatic win, Tennessee has gone a dismal 0-5 ATS and 2-3 SU in their last 5 as an away favorite of 2.0 or greater.

Pittsburgh is the higher ranked team, and the defending ACC champions. Yet, here they are as a touchdown underdog at home. Normally I would side with the sportsbooks in situations such as these, and then label it as a sucker play. Nevertheless, this is one of those very rare occasions I don’t have that mindset and falls under the category of there’s an exception to every sports betting rule. Recent seasons have displayed have shown me that when you disrespect Pat Narduzzi and the Panthers, it’s like poking the bear who was hibernating in his winter cave.

Any college football Game 2 non-conference home underdog of 9.0 or less (Pittsburgh) that’s coming off a non-conference home SU win, but either pushed or failed to cover, versus an opponent (Tennessee) coming off a SU&ATS win in which they covered by 8.0 or more, resulted in those home underdogs going 14-0 ATS since 2002. Those underdogs also won 10 of those 14 games outright. Give me Pittsburgh plus the points as a 10* Top Play wager.

Colorado @ Air Force 3:30 PM ET

Game# 351-352

Play On: Air Force -17.0 (5*)

This one jumped right off the page at me. We have a service academy team from the Mountain West Conference as a more than 2-touchdown favorite over a Power 5 Conference team. The sportsbooks are begging you to take the underdog. Well, I’m not falling for the bait. Colorado opened the season last Saturday with a terrible effort in a 38-13 blowout loss at home to TCU. That’s a TCU team that was playing with a new coaching staff and a large turnover in personnel. Furthermore, Colorado went 0-5 SU&ATS on the road last season and lost by 17.4 points per game.

Air Force easily handled a good FCS program in Northern Iowa while walking away with a convincing 48-17 home win. The Falcons had an enormous 691 yards of total offense in that victory. Since 2020, Air Force has gone 3-0 SU&ATS as a double-digit home favorite versus FBS opponents and won by 25.3 points per game. Moreover, during that identical time span, Air Force was 6-0 SU&ATS immediately following a game in which they had 475 yards or more of total offense. Give me Air Force minus the points.

Alabama @ Texas 12:00 PM ET

Game# 335-336

Play On: Texas +21.0 (5*)

You would have to be crazy to bet against Alabama after seeing them squash Utah State last week 55-0 and outgained them in total yards by 559-136. That would be the opinion of a vast majority of bettors this week based on early returns. Nonetheless, this line moved quickly from the opening number of 17.0 to 20.0. There also has been more than 80% of tickets and money wagered going on Alabama. The sportsbooks win a heck of a lot more than they lose when the betting trends are so lopsided toward one side.

Besides, it’s not like Texas is a horrible team. The Longhorns opened their season with last Saturday’s 52-10 won over UL-Monroe and covered as a huge 37.0-point favorite. Texas pulled of the hat trick in that win by scoring on offense, defense, and special teams. You also know that offensive guru and head coach Steve Sarkisian didn’t come close to unveiling his playbook last week. I’m not willing go out on a limb and call for a Texas outright upset. However, really like their chances of staying inside this sizable number.

North Carolina @ Georgia State 12:00 PM ET

Game# 321-322

Play On: Georgia State +7.5 (5*)

Despite allowing 40 points in the 4th quarter last week at Appalachian State, North Carolina still managed to escape with a thrilling 63-61 win. Apparently by the price that ticket brokers were charging, that game was much bigger in North Carolina than the rest of the country realized. Now the Tar Heels go on the road for a 2nd consecutive week to take on another Sun Belt Conference opponent. Keep in mind, up next for North Carolina is a home game versus nationally ranked Notre Dame. This sets up as a flat spot for the Tar Heels. Additionally, the Tar Heels defense has allowed 84 points and 984 yards during their first 2 games.

Georgia State lost their season opener last week 35-14 at South Carolina. However, the 35 points allowed is misleading since they held South Carolina to only 306 yards of total offense. So you can make a strong case that this will be the best defense that North Carolina would have faced so far in 2022. This line opened with Georgia State as a 9.0-point home underdog, and now it’s at 7.5 despite just 37% of tickets bet siding with the home side. Surely it sounds and smells like a sharp money move to me. Give me Georgia State plus the points.

Duke @ Northwestern 12:00 PM ET

Game# 329-330

Play On: Northwestern -9.5 (-115) (5*)

Duke got off to a shining start last week as they blanked a hapless Temple team 30-0 at home. The red flag for me in that result is the fact that Duke amassed 510 yards of total offense in that contest but only managed to score 30 points. By the way, Duke has gone 0-8 SU&ATS in their last 8 away games and lost by a massive average of 25.6 points per contest. The average closing point-spreads for Duke in those 8 games was +8.5.

Northwestern is coming off an impressive 31-28 season opening win over Nebraska in a game that played 2 weeks ago in Dublin, Ireland, and they did so as a closing 10.5-point underdog. The Wildcats racked up 538 yards of total offense in that game. Northwestern has gone 5-0 ATS in their last 5 as a home favorite of 4.0 or greater and they won by a decisive margin of 26.8 points per game. The Wildcats will also be playing with revenge stemming from a 30-23 loss at Duke last season.

Any college football home favorite of 9.5 or great that’s coming off a double-digit underdog upset win in which they scored 31 points or more, and its playing game 2 through game 7 of their season, resulted in those home favorites going a very profitable 28-8 ATS (77.7%) since 1983. Give me Northwestern minus the points.

Louisville @ Central Florida 7:30 PM ET

Game# 315-316

Play On: Louisville +5.5 (5*)

Central Florida ran roughshod over South Carolina State in their 56-10 season opening win. However, that was against an opponent that competes at the FCS level and not a “Power 5 Conference” team coming up.

Louisville was thoroughly embarrassed in a 31-7 lopsided loss to Syracuse last Saturday in a game they closed as a 5.0-point favorite. I look for the Cardinals to bounce back on Friday evening. The Cardinals have 8 returning starters from a team that scored 42 points and racked up 501 yards of total offense in a win over Central Florida last season. Give me Louisville plus the points.

Florida State vs. LSU 7:.0 PM ET

Game# 233-234

Play On: Florida State +4.0 (5*)

It’s the debut of Brian Kelly as the new head coach of LSU. However, there’s been a huge personnel changeover and with a new coaching staff usually doesn’t equate to teams being sharp early in the season and especially so in their opener. Kelly has brought in 15 players from the transfer portal including former Arizona State quarterback Jayden Daniels.

This is a crucial season for Florida State head coach Mike Norvell. The Seminoles have gone an extremely disappointing 8-13 during his first 2 seasons in Tallahassee. They return 9 players each on defense and offense and are #11 nationally in returning production. As a matter of fact, 32% of last year’s starts were by freshmen. Florida State saw 6 of their 12 games last season decided by exactly 3 points and they went 3-3 during those contests. Florida State is coming off last week’s 47-7 blowout win over Duquesne who’s plays at the FCS level. They were able to rack up 638 yards of total offense in that contest and included 406 of those on the ground. Granted the level of competition leaves a lot to be desired but having that game experience and facing an opponent that’s playing their season opener surely will be beneficial. Give me Florida State plus the points.

Boise State @ Oregon State 10:30 PM ET

Game# 201-202

Play On: Oregon State -2.5 (5*)

After recording 10 wins or more for 6 straight seasons excluding 2020 when Boise State played only 7 games due to covid, that streak came to an end under first year head coach Andy Avalos.

Oregon State went 7-6 last season and made it to a bowl game for a first time since 2013. Ironically enough, there opponent in that bowl game was Boise State. Last season marked the first time also since 2013 that the Beavers finished with a winning record. It speaks volumes to me when a downtrodden program like Oregon State comes up favorite in this spot versus a perennial Top 25 team. Give me Oregon State minus the points.

Army @ Coastal Carolina 7:00 PM ET

Game# 183-184

Play On: Army +2.5 (10*)

Coastal Carolina returns only 7 starters from a program that’s won 11 games in each of their previous 2 quarterbacks. One of those returning starters is Grayson McCall but he won’t have the supporting cast he was afforded last season. Furthermore, Army is adept at dominating time of possession with their triple option running attack which in turn can keep opposing offenses on the sidelines. Coastal ended last season on a streak of 21 consecutive weeks ranked in the Top 25. However, here they are as a short home favorite and the sportsbooks are begging you to take them.

Army has gone a combined 18-7 the last 2 seasons under current head coach Jeff Monken. Last year concluded with a 24-22 bowl win over Missouri from the SEC. The Black Knights return 14 starters including 8 on offense. Army will control the clock with long time-consuming scoring drives which will frustrate the Chanticleers. Give me Army plus the small number for a Top Play.

Houston @ UTSA 3:30 PM ET

Game# 223-224

Play On: UTSA +4.0

This is a much bigger game for UTSA than Houston. The Roadrunners rarely get to host a nationally ranked opponent like #24 Houston. Houston returns 13 starters from a team that went 12-2 last season including a bowl game win over Auburn. Yet, this line opened as Houston being 6.5-point favorite and is now down to 4.0.

UTSA is no slouch by any means. The Roadrunners went 12-2 last season and won the Conference USA title. It was the best win percentage and numbers of wins in program history. Since head coach Jeff Traylor took over as head coach in 2020, UTSA has gone 11-1 SU at home and that includes 9-0 in their last 9 at the Alamodome in San Antonio. Give me UTSA plus the points.

West Virginia @ Pittsburgh 7:00 PM ET

Game# 143-144

Play On: Pittsburgh -7.0 (5*)

West Virginia went 6-7 last season and returns very little production on both sides of the ball. Pittsburgh went 11-3 last season and won the ACC title. The Panthers lost starting quarterback Kenny Pickett who was a 1st round pick by the Steelers and star wide receiver’s Jordan Addison who transferred to USC. However, they still return 16 starters and were able to grab former USC starting quarterback Kedon Slovis in the transfer portal. Pittsburgh has gone a solid 19-9 in their last 28 at home.

Any non-conference college football home favorite of 4.0 to 10.0-points (Pittsburgh) playing in an opening game of the season, and they won 10 games or more during the previous year, and they’ve won 22 or fewer of their last 28 at home, versus an opponent (West Virginia) that won 6 or fewer games in the previous season, resulted in those home teams going 13-0 SU&ATS since 1986. The average margin of victory in those 13 contests came by a decisive 20.0 points per game and the average line was 8.0. Give me Pittsburgh minus the points.

LA Rams vs. Cincinnati 6:30 PM ET

Game# 101-102

Play On: LA Rams -4.0 (10*)

Cincinnati allowed 55 sacks of their quarterbacks during regular season action. Only Baltimore and Chicago were worse in that statistical category. Conversely, the Rams defense amassed 50 sacks during regular season which was 3rd best among all NFL teams. The Bengals have allowed 12 more sacks in the postseason, and it includes 9 during their upset win at Tennessee.

Cincinnati has rushed for less than 100 yards in all 3 postseason games. On the other hand, Los Angeles has limited their 3 postseason opponents to 61 yards or fewer rushing and permitted a mere 3.1 yards per carry.

The Rams are coming off a win over bitter division rival San Francisco in the NFC Championship Game. Since the 2019-2020 season began, the Rams are 15-4 SU&ATS immediately following a division game and includes 7-1 SU&ATS if they played at home. The Rams enter the Super Bowl having won 8 of its last 9 games. Their only loss during that stretch came by 3 to San Francisco in a game they squandered a 17-point lead.

The Los Angeles running game is much better than their season statistics indicate. They were without star running back Cam Ackers until their regular season finale. Their passing game has been dynamic this season and ranked #5 during NFL regular season action while amassing 273.1 yards per game. They’ll be facing a Cincinnati defense which was 26th against the pass in allowing 248.1 yards per contest.

This is a bad matchup for Cincinnati on both sides of the ball. Cincinnati won’t be able to sustain a consistent running game against a stout Rams defense. Furthermore, the Bengals offensive line will struggle mightily in protecting Joe Burrow. That’s not a winning formula by any stretch of the imagination. Give me the LA Rams minus the points.

Cincinnati @ Kansas City 3:05 PM ET

Game# 321-322

Play On: Cincinnati +7.5 (5*)

Kansas City is coming off an emotionally draining 42-36 overtime win versus Buffalo last Sunday. The media has pretty much convinced numerous bettors that the AFC Championship Game versus an upstart Cincinnati team is merely a formality. Granted the Chiefs are 11-1 in their last 12 game. However, their lone loss came to these very same Bengals in a game Cincinnati quarterback Joe Burrow torched the suspect Kansas City secondary for 422 passing yards. If the Bengals defense steps up in this one, they’ll have an opportunity to pull off an upset. Otherwise, there’s an ample amount offensive firepower for Cincinnati to keep this game competitive and inside the number. Bet Cincinnati plus the points.

Buffalo @ Kansas City 6:30 PM ET

Game# 317-318

Play On: Buffalo +2.5 (10*)

So, the Kansas City Chiefs are 10-1 in their last 11 games, the higher seed in this matchup, but they’re just a 1.5-point home favorite. The oddsmakers and early sharp money are huge indicators as to who the right side in this contest. The sportsbooks are begging you to take the red-hot Chiefs at this small of a number. Granted Kansas City has been exceptional in the 2nd half of the regular season and into the playoffs. However, Buffalo is currently on a 5-game win streak and held those opponents to 15.4 points and 237.2 yards per contest. By the way, the Chiefs have accumulated 378 yards or more of total offense in each of their previous 5 games. Nonetheless, Kansas City is just 3-3 SU and 1-5 ATS at home immediately following 4 straight games in which they had 375 yards or more of total offense.

The Bills outgained New England by a massive margin of 177 yards during their 47-17 home blowout win last Saturday. Since the start of the 2019-202 season, Buffalo is 8-0 SU on the road following a game in which they outgained their opponent by 100 yards or more and had a decisive average victory margin of 18.4 points per contest. The Bills are one of just a few NFL teams that can match Kansas City’s offensive explosiveness. Bet Buffalo for a Top Play wager.

LA Rams @ Tampa Bay 3:00 PM ET

Game# 315-316

Play On: Tampa Bay -2.5 (5*)

The Rams will receive plenty of public action as an underdog after bettors witnessed last Monday night’s dominating 34-11 win over Arizona. However, they’ll be facing the defending world champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers who are 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS at home this season. The Bucs will also be playing with revenge stemming from 34-24 loss at Los Angeles in Week 3 action. Tampa Bay enters this Divisional Round matchup having won 8 of its last 9 games and covered on 6 of those occasions. Furthermore, the Bucs have gone 14-2 SU this season against all teams who are not named the New Orleans Saints, and that includes 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS at home.

At this time of year, winning the turnover battle is usually a precursor to who wins and covers. Tampa Bay has an inspiring turnover margin of +6 during their current 4-game win streak. Additionally, they committed only 1 turnover during that stretch. Conversely, the Rams have committed 11 turnovers in their last 5 away games. Bet Tampa Bay minus the small number.

Cincinnati @ Tennessee 4:30 PM ET

Game# 301-302

Play On: Cincinnati +3.5 (10*)

Tennessee star running back Derrick Henry returns from injury after missing 9 games. However, it’s unlikely he will be given a heavy workload after that long hiatus. The Titans went only 4-3 SU in their last 7 games and included a home loss to lowly Houston. The Titans have allowed 280 yards or more passing 8 times this season. This has been an area of concern for 2 years now, and against a talented young quarterback (Joe Burrow) and group of receivers that Cincinnati possesses, there’s a good chance they’ll be further exposed. Cincinnati has gone 5-2 SU this season versus teams that made the playoffs, and their lone 2 losses came in overtime against Green Bay and San Francisco. Give me Cincinnati plus the points for a Top Play wager.

Cardinals @ Rams 8:15 PM ET

Game# 151-152

Play On: Cardinals +4.0 (10*)

The Cardinals finished the regular season by losing 4 of its last 5 games. However, Arizona was a terrific 8-1 SU&ATS on the road this season and that includes 6-0 SU&ATS as an underdog. It’s not like they feasted on a bunch of creampuffs. The Cardinals defeated 4 teams that qualified for the playoffs on the road in Dallas, LA Rams, Tennessee, and San Francisco. Conversely, the Rams went just 5-3 SU and 4-4 ATS at home this season. Furthermore, Los Angeles was a dismal 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 at home versus teams that finished regular season action with a winning record. The road teams won and covered both games between these division rivals this season. Bet Arizona plus the points.

Pittsburgh @ Kansas City 8:15 PM ET

Game# 143-144

Play On: Kansas City -12.5 (5*)

These teams just met in Kansas City just 3 weeks ago and the Chiefs walked away with a 36-10 blowout win. I look for more of the same on Sunday night. Additionally, the Chiefs are 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 at home with an average victory margin of 22.0 points per game. Conversely, Pittsburgh is 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 non-division contest and were outscored by 21.7 points per game. Bet on Kansas City minus the points. By the way, NFL postseason home favorites of 10.5 or more have gone 9-0 SU&ATS since 2011 and outscored their opponents by an average of 18.7 points per game.

San Francisco @ Dallas 4:30 PM ET

Game# 147-148

Play On: San Francisco +3.0 (10*)

Dallas (13-5) is the NFC East champion and finished the regular season going 5-1 SU&ATS in their final 6 regular season contests. Yet, they opened and remain just a 3.0-point favorite versus an opponent that needed to overcome a 17-3 halftime deficit in their final regular season game just to qualify for the postseason. Since 2019, Dallas has gone 4-11 SU and 3-12 ATS when their point-spread is +3.0 to -3.0.

The 49ers have been chasing the Rams and Cardinals all season when it comes to the NFC West standing and it became clear their only path to the postseason was a wildcard berth. So, they’ve been in win or go home mode over the final few weeks of regular season action. I look for that to pay dividends in this contest. Furthermore, the 49ers have been better on the road than at home this season. San Francisco is 7-2 SU in away games. Since the 2019-2020 season began, the 49ers are 4-1 SU&ATS in away games when their point-spread was +3.0 to -3.0. Bet the 49ers plus the points for a Top Play wager.

Philadelphia @ Tampa Bay 1:00 PM ET

Game# 145-146

Play On: Philadelphia +10.0 (5*)

I was quite surprised when Tampa Bay opened as just an 8.5-point favorite in this game. My personal power numbers which are usually accurate had Tampa Bay as a 10.5-point chalk. Having said that, you would think I would be all over the Bucs but quite the contrary. Like I’ve said may times over the years, I don’t fear the oddsmakers but genuinely respect their ability to set an accurate line. So, my conclusion is this is a fishy line, and the sportsbooks are begging you to take the defending world champion Bucs versus a Philadelphia team which is 9-8 and failed to beat a team all season that finished with a winning record. Bet Philadelphia plus the points.

New England @ Buffalo 8:15 PM ET

Game# 143-144

Play On: Buffalo -4.5 (10*)

Buffalo has scored 27 points or more in each of their last 5 games. Since Sean McDermott has taken over as head coach in Buffalo, the Bills are an unbeaten 10-0 SU and 8-1-1 ATS at home after scoring 25 points or more in each of their previous 2 games. Since 2009, Wildcard Round teams that win straight up have gone 47-8 ATS (85.4%). Do you see where I am going with this? I hope so.

Since Bill Belichick took over as head coach in New England, his Patriots team have gone 36-8 versus Buffalo. However, since the start of last season which coincides with the departure of Tom Brady, New England is 1-3 SU&ATS versus Buffalo. Furthermore, heading into Week 15 of this season, New England held a comfortable 2.0 game lead over Buffalo in the AFC East standings. Then they lost 3 of their last 4 while Buffalo put together a 4-game win streak. One of those defeats was a 33-21 home setback to Buffalo in a game they were outgained 448-288. They will be playing against a Buffalo defense that’s allowed 15 points or fewer and 275 yards or less in each of their last 4 at home. Many people will jump all over a Bill Belichick coached New England team as a playoff underdog. I’m not one of them. Give me Buffalo minus the points for a Top Play wager.