West Virginia vs. Minnesota 10:15 PM ET

Game# 245-246

Play On: West Virginia +5.5 (5*)

This line makes no sense. Minnesota is 8-4 and less than a touchdown favorite versus a 5-6 West Virginia team who went 2-6 versus teams playing in a bowl game. The Mountaineers enter this Guaranteed Rate Bowl game with some momentum after winning their final 2 regular season contest and surprisingly ending up in a bowl game despite their losing record. You can make a strong case that West Virginia will be far more motivated to play in this bowl game than Minnesota will be. Bet West Virginia plus the points.

Air Force vs. Louisville 3:15 PM ET

Game# 239-240

Play On: Louisville +1.5 (5*)

Louisville has played a much tougher regular season schedule than Air Force has and that will pay dividends in this matchup. The oddsmakers and sportsbooks see this as an even matchup despite Louisville being 6-6 and Air Force at 9-3. Those season record disparities and this current line can mislead the novice sports bettors out there. Thankfully, I’m not in that category. Bet on Louisville.

Detroit @ Atlanta 1:00 PM ET

Game# 463-464

Play On: Detroit +7.0 (5*)

The Falcons are coming off back-to-back road games. The Falcons are 6-8 but a an abysmal 0-5 SU&ATS at home while being outscored by an average of 14.8 points per contest. During the past 3 seasons, Atlanta is 2-14 SU and 3-13 ATS in conference home games. All previously mentioned is hardly a stellar resume for the touchdown home favorite.

Detroit looks to continue building on positives in what has been otherwise a terrible season. After beginning the season with 8 straight losses, the Lions are a respectable 2-3-1 SU and more importantly from a betting viewpoint an extremely profitable 5-1 ATS. Furthermore, despite being winless on the road, the Lions are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 away games. Bet Detroit plus the points.

LA Rams @ Minnesota 1:00 PM ET

Game# 467-468

Play On: Minnesota +3.5 (5*)

The Rams are 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3 and are now tied with Arizona for the NFC West Division lead with both teams at 10-4. However, since 2019, and all under current head coach Sean McVeigh, the Rams are a dismal 1-6 ATS and 2-5 SU in road games following 2 or more consecutive wins.

Since Mike Zimmer took over as head coach in Minnesota, the Vikings are 28-11 SU and 26-13 ATS in regular season non-division home games. That team trend with Zimmer takes on even more added significance in this case since the Vikings are an underdog of better than a field goal. Furthermore, I’m of the opinion that this matchup gives a slight edge to Minnesota regarding the degree of urgency and desperation at stake. There’s on thing for certain, with or without Dalvin Cook, this is the best looking 7-7 team I’ve seen in quite some time. Bet Minnesota plus the points.

Buffalo @ New England 1:00 PM ET

Game# 471-472

Play On: Buffalo +2.5 (5*)

New England is at home, has a 1.0-game lead over Buffalo in the AFC East, is 7-1 in their last 8, and just won at Buffalo 14-10 during a Week 13 Monday night nationally televised game. Additionally, they embarrassed the Bills by winning despite throwing a mere 3 passes in the contest. Yet, here they are as less than a field goal favorite at home in a game if they win would result in an AFC East title. Think like an oddsmaker in this spot. He’s set the bait for bettors to perceive New England as being a logical pick. I have no problem being illogical just this once (laugh). Bet Buffalo plus the small number.

San Francisco @ Tennessee 8:20 PM ET

Game# 451-452

Play On: San Francisco -3.0 (5*)

The line at the time of this writing tells me everything I need to know. We have an 8-6 San Francisco team as a road favorite versus 9-5 Tennessee in Week 16 of the season. Let’s face it, Tennessee hasn’t been the same offensively since losing star running back Derek Henry to an injury. The Titans have lost 3 of their last 4 and averaged a mere 14.7 points scored per game during that stretch while also committing an alarming 13 turnovers.

San Francisco is playing their best football at the most opportune time. The 49ers are 5-1 SU&ATS in their last 6 and had a +7 turnover margin while doing so. The 49ers are also a perfect 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 non-division games with an average victory margin of 12.0 points per contest. Bet San Francisco minus the points.

North Texas vs. Miami-Ohio 3:30 PM ET

Game# 291-292

Play On: North Texas +3.0 (5*)

Somehow the MAC has 7 teams invited to bowl games and that includes Miami-Ohio who went just 5-6 this season. The early results haven’t been very good as MAC teams are 0-4 thus far. Miami posted just 1 win all season versus an opponent with a winning record. They lost their regular season finale 48-47 to Kent State in a game they allowed 303 yards rushing. That’s not a good sign in regards to this Frisco Football Classic matchup against an opponent in North Texas that has rushed for 321 yards or more in 3 of their last 4 contests. North Texas started the season 1-6 but then finished 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 while winning by a sizable margin of 19.6 points per game. It must be noted, North Texas routed nationally ranked UTSA in their regular season finale 45-23 in a game the Roadrunners entered with a perfect 11-0 record. Bet North Texas plus the points.

Missouri vs. Army 8:00 PM ET

Game# 225-226

Play On: Missouri +7.0 (5*)

Public betting trends have heavily sided with Army since the opening line for this Armed Forces Bowl matchup has been dropped. As a matter of fact, Army has gone from an opening 3.0-point favorite to as high as 7.0 at the time of this writing. Part of the reason for this huge line move is that Missouri will be without star running back Tyler Badie who accounted for for 1934 total yards from scrimmage and scored 18 touchdowns this season. Brady Cook has been named the starter at quarterback for Missouri which is a bit of a surprise when considering his limited experience. However, since arriving on campus last season Cook has gone 25-31 passing for 179 yards and 2 touchdowns versus 0 interceptions. Missouri is a balanced offensive team that averages 36 runs and 35 passes per game. Missouri is an uninspiring 6-6 heading into the bowl season. Nevertheless, 4 of their 6 wins came over bowl participants and their regular season schedule saw them face 10 of 12 opponents that will be playing in postseason games.

Army is a deceiving 8-4 when considering 1 of their wins came against Bucknell that plays at the FCS level in addition to victories over Massachusetts and Connecticut who are arguably the worst FBS programs in college football. Army is also coming off an upset loss to bitter rival Navy (4-8) 17-13 in a game their potent rushing attack was held to 124 yards which is 154 yards below its season average. The similarity between Navy and Missouri is both played a much tougher slate than the Black Knights. Bet Missouri plus the points.

Seattle @ LA Rams 7:00 PM ET

Game# 337-338

Play On: Seattle +7.0 (5*)

Seattle is 5-8 but unlike some teams with that poor of a record this late in the season they won’t be waving the white flag with Pete Carroll as their head coach. As a matter of fact, the Seahawks have won and covered their last 2 which included an upset of San Francisco.

The Rams are coming off a huge Monday night national televised win over NFC West Division leading Arizona. However, the Rams were one of the hardest hit teams by COVID this week which caused this game to be rescheduled from Sunday until today. Their meetings have been held virtually this week since they were 1 of 7 NFL teams placed under the heading of emergency COVID protocol. It would be hard to imaging they will be sharp mentally or physically headed into this matchup. Winning the game is one thing but asking Los Angeles to cover this sizable of a point-spread under their current circumstances is a difficult ask. Bet Seattle plus the points.

Green Bay @ Baltimore 4:25 PM ET

Game# 315-316

Play On: Baltimore +7.0

I like the Ravens with or without Lamar Jackson. I assume at +7.0 it will be Tyler Huntley at quarterback. If Lamar gets the green light and get medical clearance on his injured ankle, then we aren’t going to be getting 7.0 points it will be more like 3.5 or 4.0 and that’s still fine. Tyler Huntley has accounted himself well when called upon this season. He was the starter in place of the injured Jackson at Chicago when the Ravens walked away with a 16-13 win. Last week, he just came up short of rallying Baltimore from a 24-6 halftime deficit at Cleveland, but the Ravens fell 24-22. Baltimore has gone 4-0 in non-division home games this season which includes wins Kansas City (10-3), LA Chargers (8-5), Indianapolis (7-6), and the best 6-7 team in years the Minnesota Vikings. Baltimore has gone 8-0 SU&ATS during the last 4 weeks of regular season action over the last 2 years and won by a decisive margin of 17.8 points per game. Additionally, since 2019, Baltimore is a perfect 3-0 SU&ATS as a home underdog and won by an average of 12.0 points per game.

All 3 losses by Green Bay this season were sustained away from Lambeau Field. They also escaped with narrow road wins by 3 in overtime versus Cincinnati, by 3 over Arizona, and 2 against San Francisco. It’s inevitable that Green Bay will win the NFC North and that may transpire as soon as the Vikings and Bears Monday night game goes final. I just firmly believe that a Jim Harbaugh coached Ravens team will be difficult for Green Bay to pull away from regardless of the adversity they may be facing. Bet Baltimore plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

NY Jets @ Miami 1:00 PM ET

Game# 309-310

Play On: Miami -9.0 (5*)

Miami is coming off their bye week after going 5-0 SU&ATS in the preceding 5 weeks. During this current win streak, the Dolphins allowed 9.0 points per game. Since last season, Miami has gone a perfect 3-0 SU&ATS versus the Jets and won by an average of 16.0 points per game. Since 2019, Miami is an unscathed 4-0 SU&ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 and won by 13.7 points per game.

The Jets offense has averaged a mere 16.7 points scored per game throughout their previous 5 outings. Additionally, New York has averaged just 267.6 total yards of offensive per game over its last 3 contests. Since 2019, the Jets are 1-7 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 9.5, lost all 8 straight up, and were outscored by a sizable margin of 17.7 points per game. Bet on Miami minus the points.

Marshall vs. UL-Lafayette 9:15 PM ET

Game# 217-218

Play On: Marshall +4.5 (5*)

We have #16 UL-Lafayette who has won 12 straight games since losing their season opener at Texas as just a 4.0-point favorite versus a 7-5 Marshall team from Conference USA. This game has trap written all over it as they’re pleading with you to take the ranked favorite at an inviting number over an opponent who’s mediocre on paper. Not to mention, this game is being played in New Orleans, Louisiana. If it smells like a rat, looks like a rat, then it’s a rat. Give me Marshall plus the points.

Oregon State @ Utah State 7:30 PM ET

Game# 215-216

Play On: Oregon State -7.0 (10*)

Utah State crushed San Diego State in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game 46-13 in a game they closed as a 6.5-point underdog. The Aggies enter this Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl having won 7 of their last 8 yet find themselves as a touchdown underdog versus a 7-5 Oregon State team. This is one of those situations where I trust the oddsmakers ability to set an accurate line more than what may appear to be obvious underdog betting value. As opposed to most Power 5 Conference teams playing opponents from the Group of 6 Conferences, Oregon State is delighted to be playing in a bowl game and will be plenty motivated. Especially when considering that Oregon State went a dismal 10-32 during the previous 4 seasons. Bet Oregon State minus the points for a Top Play wager.

Eastern Michigan vs. Liberty 5:45 PM ET

Game# 213-214

Play On: Liberty -9.5 (5*)

The Liberty Flames are coming off a disappointing 7-5 season which included finishing regular season play 0-3 SU&ATS. Nevertheless, they find themselves as a sizable favorite against an Eastern Michigan team that sports an identical 7-5 record. It must be noted, those last 3 losses by Liberty came to #8 Ole Miss (10-2), #16 UL-Lafayette (12-1) and Army (8-4). The Flames also own 4 wins over teams participating in bowl games. Liberty has outgained their opponents by 112.7 yards per game this season. Conversely, Eastern Michigan has been outgained by 49.4 yards per contest. Bet on Liberty minus the points.

UAB vs. BYU 3:30 PM ET

Game# 211-212

Play On: UAB +7.0 (5*)

This line makes no sense to me. BYU is ranked #12 in the country with a stellar 10-2 record. They have quality wins over #10 Utah, Mountain West Conference Champion Utah State, in addition to bowl teams Arizona State, Washington State, and Virginia. Additionally, BYU finished regular season action on a 5-game win streak. Yet here they are playing in the low-profile Independence Bowl against a team from Conference USA with an 8-4 season record. There’s no doubt in my mind that UAB will be more motivated to be playing BYU than visa-versa. When it comes to minor bowl games motivation is a key handicapping component to consider. UAB has unequivocally faced the weaker schedule of these 2 teams. However, they did give #24 UTSA (12-1) all they can handle in a 34-31 road loss in a game they outgained the Roadrunners 474-375. Bet UAB plus the points.

Coastal Carolina vs. Northern Illinois 6:00 PM ET

Game# 203-204

Play On: Coastal Carolina -10.5 (10*)

Northern Illinois is the MAC Champion that comes into this Cure Bowl matchup in Orlando Florida with a 9-4 record. However, they allowed 40 points or more in each of their 4 losses and were outgained by an average of 26.1 yards per game. Conversely, Coastal Carolina averaged 40.4 points scored per game and outgained their opponents by an average of 166.3 yards per contest. They will be facing a Northern Illinois defense that’s allowed 32.7 points per game this season. Since the start of last season, Coastal Carolina has gone a dominating 8-0 SU&ATS when facing an opponent that allows 31.0 or more points per game and they won by a decisive margin of 20.7 points per contest. Lastly, although Coastal Carolina didn’t reach the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game despite an outstanding 10-2 record, their 2 losses came by just a combined 5 points. They were that close to going undefeated. Bet Coastal Carolina minus the points for a Top Play wager.

Rams @ Cardinals 8:15 PM ET

Game# 129-130

Play On: Rams +2.5 (5*)

The sportsbooks are giving you the winner based on this current point-spread in my professional opinion. After all, Arizona won at Los Angeles 37-20 earlier this season, leads the Rams by 2-games in the NFC West Standings, and is facing a Los Angeles team that snapped a 3-game losing streak last week with a home win over lowly Jacksonville (2-11). Yet. the Cardinals are a home favorite of less than a field goal. It also must be noted, the Rams are 6-0 SU&ATS in their last 6 games at Arizona and won by an average of 13.5 points per contest.

Since 2019, Arizona has gone 0-3 ATS as a home favorite of 3.0 or less. Conversely, since 2019, the Rams are a profitable 13-7 ATS (65%) when their point-spread is between +3.0 to -3.0. Bet the Rams plus the points.

49ers @ Bengals 4:25 PM ET

Game# 109-110

Play On: Bengals +2.0 (5*)

Cincinnati is coming off last Sunday’s 41-22 blowout loss to the Cargers in a game they closed as a 3.0-point home favorite. That win dropped their season record to a still respectable 7-5.

Any NFL team that’s playing in regular season action only and after Game 4, coming off a home favorite straight up loss by 17 points or more, and they currently have a winning record, resulted in those teams going 16-0 SU and 15-1 ATS since the start of the 2014-2015 season. As impressive as that 93.8% ATS betting angle is, the unbeaten SU record takes on added significance since it backs the underdog in this matchup. Bet the Bengals plus the small number.

Bills @ Buccaneers 1:00 PM ET

Game# 125-126

Play On: Bills +3.5 (5*)

The Bills are coming off an extremely disappointing 14-10 Monday night home loss to New England. They allowed over 200 yards rushing and will down in NFL annals in rare company after losing a game when the opponent had 2 passing days or less. Being that a national television audience witnessed that performance, I fully expect public betting to back Tampa Bay. I never have an issue when it requires going against public betting patterns. This is one of those instances. Bet the Bills plus the points

Lions @ Broncos 4:05 PM ET

Game# 121-122

Play On: Broncos -10.5 (5*)

Detroit is coming off their 1st win of the season in last Sunday’s walk off win over Minnesota. However, NFL teams that are playing after Game 11 of their season, and they’re an underdog of from 7.0 to 114.0 points, resulted in those 1st time winners going 0-5 SU&ATS since 1981. They lost those 5 contests by a decisive margin of 24.2 points per game.

This is rare air for Denver at home with no pun intended. Since Vic Fangio took over as head coach for the Broncos in 2019, they’ve only been a home favorite of 7.5 or greater twice and covered on each occasion. Denver is coming off last Sunday’s 22-9 loss at Kansas City. During Vic Fangio’s current tenure, Denver has gone 6-0 SU&ATS at home following a game in which they scored 14 points or fewer. Bet the Broncos minus the points.

Raiders @ Chiefs 1:00 PM ET

Game# 105-106

Play On: Chiefs -9.5 (10*)

After starting the season 5-2, the Raiders have gone on to lose 4 of its last 5 games. Las Vegas scored 16 points or fewer in all 4 of those defeats.

Kansas City enters this week on a 5-game win streak in addition to covering each of its last 3. It’s the Chiefs defense and not their offense that has been the catalyst throughout those 5 Kansas City wins. Furthermore, and since 2019, the Chiefs are 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS after allowing 17 points or less in their previous 2 contests while winning by an average of 15.3 points per game. Lastly, Kansas City walloped the Raiders during their earlier season meeting in Las Vegas by a final score of 41-14. The Chiefs had a huge total offense yards edge of 516-299. Bet the Chiefs minus the points for a Top Play wager.

Navy vs. Army 3:00 PM ET

Game# 103-104

Play On: Navy +7.0 (5*)

Don’t be misled by the disparity in the 2 team’s records. Navy is 3-8 and Army is 8-3. However, Navy has far and away played the tougher schedule. The Midshipmen have gone up against #4 Cincinnati, #5 Notre Dame, and #21 Houston. The only lopsided loss out of the 3 came at Notre Dame 34-6. The other 2 games saw the Middies cover each in a 28-20 loss at Houston as a 20-point underdog and a 27-20 loss Cincinnati as a 29.0-point dog. The only ranked opponent that Army faced this season was #20 Wake Forest and they suffered a 70-56 loss in that contest. The Black Knights allowed Wake Forest to rack up 638 yards of total defense and were outclassed from the start. This contest goes right down to the wire, and I wouldn’t be shocked at all to see an outright upset. Nevertheless, I won’t get greedy and take the number being given to me. Bet Navy plus the points.

New England @ Buffalo 8:15 PM ET

Game# 475-476

Play On: Buffalo -2.5 (-122) (10*)

New England has gone 6-0 SU&ATS in their last 6 games and enters this contest the hottest team in the NFL. Additionally, the Patriots have gone 5-0 on the road this season. Yet, here they are as a road underdog versus a Bills team that’s just 3-3 in their last 6 games. Like I said on many occasions, it’s rarely that east when it comes to sports betting and tonight’s game will be a prime example of such. It also must be noted, 4 of the 5 road wins by New England have come over teams that currently have a losing record in the Jets (3-9), Texans (2-10), Panthers (5-7), and Falcons (5-7). The lone exception was their win at the Chargers (7-5). New England is coming off a 36-13 home win over Tennessee last Sunday. However, that final score is a bit deceiving since they only were able to

Buffalo is coming off a 31-6 blowout win at New Orleans in a game they held the Saints to a mere 146 passing yards. Since 2019, Buffalo is 11-1 SU and 9-2-1 ATS following a game in which they allowed 150 or fewer passing yards and includes 4-0 SU&ATS (+16.2 PPG) at home. Furthermore, since 2019, Buffalo is 5-0 SU at home following a game in which they allowed 14 points or fewer and they won by an average of 13.8 points per contest.

Kudos to the New England Patriots and future Hall of Fame head coach Bill Belichick for the masterful job he’s done so far this season. Nonetheless, Buffalo is the better team in this matchup and they’ll make a huge statement tonight to fulfill that statement. Bet Buffalo minus the small number for a Top Play wager.

Denver @ Kansas City 8:20 ET

Game# 457-458

Play On: Kansas City -9.5 (10*)

The public has jumped all over Denver to cover this contest as of this writing. Nonetheless, I’m here to tell you they’re dead wrong. Yes, I know the Chiefs have been a terrible play on as a home favorite this season and last. I also know Denver is coming off an impressive 28-13 home win over the Chargers and recently blew out Dallas in Arlington. It doesn’t matter, because I don’t see this as a favorable betting situation for the sizable road underdog.

The Chiefs seemed to sleepwalk through the first half of the season and frankly looked uninspired. However, Kansas City has recently caught fire and enter this week on a 4-game win streak. The most encouraging part of that successful run was the play of their defensive unit. The Chiefs have allowed an average of 11.7 points and 294.0 yards per game while also forcing 8 turnovers. Furthermore, they’ve owned the Broncos in recent seasons while going 11-0 SU and 9-2 ATS against them. Lastly, Kansas City is just 1.0 game ahead of Denver in the standings, yet they are more than a touchdown favorite. It sure feels like the sportsbooks are baiting to take the road underdog. Thanks, but no thanks. Bet on Kansas City minus the points for a Top Play wager.

Washington @ Las Vegas 4:05 PM ET

Game# 467-468

Play On: Washington +1.5 (5*)

The only thing consistent about the Raiders this season has been their inconsistency. That’s especially been the case since former head coach Jon Gruden was let go. Which team is going to show up? The one that has wins over the Cowboys, Ravens, and Denver, or losses against the Giants (4-7) and Bears (4-7). My strong feeling is we’ll see the latter. The raiders have lost 3 of their last 4 at home.

Don’t look now but after a 2-6 start to the season, Washington has gone 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3.  They currently are holding down the final NFC wildcard position as a result. What’s even more encouraging, the highly touted Washington defense is finally living expectations after floundering through the first 6 games of the season. During the last 5 contests, Washington has allowed 19.0 points and 282.8 yards per game while facing opposing quarterbacks such as Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, and Russell Wilson. Bet the Washington Football Team.

LA Chargers @ Cincinnati 1:00 PM ET

Game# 463-464

Play On: LA Chargers +3.0 (5*)

Cincinnati has been and will continue to be a heavily bet side in this matchup. Public bettors tend to have a short memory and overreact at times to what has transpired in the last couple of weeks. With that being said, the Chargers are coming off a poor performance in a 28-13 loss at Denver last Sunday. However, it’s worth noting that the Chargers are 3-1 SU following a loss this season and includes 2-0 SU&ATS in away games.

Cincinnati is coming off impressive wins over Las Vegas 32-13 and Pittsburgh 41-10. Despite those 2 high scoring outputs, the Bengals averaged just 329.0 yards of total offense per game and benefitted from forcing 5 turnovers. Let us not forgot, Cincinnati is just 3 weeks removed from suffering back-to-back losses to the Jets (3-8) and Browns (5-6) while allowing a combined 75 points during those defeats.

The Chargers have failed to cover their previous 3 games. On the other hand, Cincinnati has covered their last 2 contests. Any NFL team that’s +3.0 to -3.0 (Chargers) that failed to cover in 3 more games in a row and is facing an opponent (Bengals) who covered 2 or more games in a row, resulted in those teams on an ATS losing streak to go 35-7 ATS (80%) since 2012, 19-2 ATS since 2017, and 11-0 ATS since 2019. Bet the Chargers plus the points.

Iowa vs. Michigan 8:00 PM ET

Game# 321-322

Play On: Michigan -10.5 (10*)

Give a lot of credit to Iowa head coach Kirk Ferentz and his staff for getting Iowa to the Big 12 Championship game despite some glaring offensive weaknesses. Case in point, the Hawkeyes averaged just 20.7 points per game in their final 7 Big 10 Conference games. Unquestionably the Hawkeyes defense has been the catalyst to a successful 10-2 regular season campaign. Nonetheless, Michigan’s defense has been superb as well. The Wolverines are #14 nationally in total defense and #8 in scoring while allowing only 17.2 points per contest. Conversely, Iowa is 123rd out of 130 Division 1 teams in total offense at only 299.3 yards per game. The defenses comparisons are a wash since both units are elite. The telling difference in us covering this spread will be Michigan’s offense which is #20 nationally in total yards. The Wolverines offense is especially difficult to defend since their yards gained between run and pass are almost identical. Bet Michigan minus the points for a Top Play wager.

Wake Forest vs. Pittsburgh 8:00 PM ET

Game# 319-320

Play On: Wake Forest +3.5 (5*)

This is an intriguing matchup just from the standpoint that we have a ACC Championship Game without Clemson for a first time in 7 years. No other team besides Clemson has won an ACC title since Florida State did it in 2014. The Panthers are 10-2 with a pair of head scratching home losses to Western Michigan and Miami. Pittsburgh is #6 nationally in run defense. However, teams have had success throwing the ball against the Pitt defense. Pitt ranks #113 out of 130 Division 1 teams in pass defense at 261.1 yards allowed per game in the air. They will be facing a Wake Forest passing attack that averages 315.5 yards passing per game which is 11th best nationally. The Demon Deacons defense does give up plenty of yards, but they have forced 27 turnovers this season, and are #4 nationally in turnover margin at +12.0. Look for to win the turnover battle and that being a key contributing factor to us getting the cover. Additionally, this contest will be played in the backyard of Wake Forest at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina. Bet Wake Forest plus the points.

Houston @ Cincinnati 4:00 PM ET

Game# 313-314

Play On: Cincinnati -10.0 (5*)

Cincinnati has been arguably the most criticized 12-0 in college football history. Their detractors are quick to point out their inferior schedule compared to those of Power 5 Conference schools. Yet, they handed #6 Notre Dame their lone loss of the season and did so in South Bend.  They are currently #4 in the college football playoff rankings. It would seem they just need to beat #21 Houston who enters Saturday’s conference title game on an 11-game win streak for a berth in the college football playoffs. However, I am not convinced that just a win will be all it takes to stay in the Top 4. A convincing win is what’s needed to solidify their spot within the Top 4, and I truly believe the Bearcats will be able to produce just that. Bet Cincinnati minus the points.

Georgia vs. Alabama 4:00 PM ET

Game# 317-318

Play On: Alabama +6.5 (5*)

Georgia hasn’t truly been tested since their season opening 10-3 win over Clemson. They won their other 11 games by 17 points or more. From a statistical standpoint, Georgia is far and away the best defensive team in the country. They’ve allowed a mere 6.9 points and 230.9 yards per game this season. However, they haven’t faced as talented an offense as the one they’ll face on Saturday. The Crimson Tide averages 42.7 points and 491.6 yards per game. Alabama has passed for over 300 yards in each of its last 7 games The Alabama defense doesn’t have the dominating statistics that Georgia does. Nonetheless, they are #7 nationally in total defense while allowing just 292.5 yards per game, #3 against the run, #3 in sacks with 43, and #11 on 3rd downs. This will be the first time since 10/3/2015 that Alabama is installed as an underdog. Ironically enough, they were a 1.5-point road underdog at Georgia on that day and walked away with a decisive 38-10 win. Bet Alabama plus the points.

Appalachian State @ UL-Lafayette 3:30 PM ET

Game# 311-312

Play On: Appalachian State -2.5 (10*)

UL-Lafayette has won 11 straight games since their season opening loss at Texas. One of those 11 wins was a 41-13 home rout of Appalachian State. There was nothing lucky about that win as they outgained their bitter Sun Belt Conference rivals by a decided margin of 455-211. Yet here they are as a 3.0-point home underdog at the time of this writing. When it comes to sports betting, it’s rarely as easy as it may appear. This is a textbook example of such.

Since that disappointing loss to UL-Lafayette, Appalachian State has won 6 straight games and covered 5 of those contests with an average victory margin of 25.7 points per game. The Mountaineers will not only be playing with same season revenge on Saturday, they’ll also be out to atone for a 24-21 home loss to UL-Lafayette in last season’s Sun Belt Championship Games. Bet on Appalachian State minus the points.

Baylor vs. Oklahoma State 12:00 PM ET

Game# 307-308

Play On: Baylor +5.5 (5*)

Baylor enters this Big 12 Championship Game with an outstanding 10-2 record. One of those 2 losses came at Oklahoma State earlier this season. The Bears were held to a season low 14 points scored and 280 yards of total offense in that defeat but still only lost by 10.

Oklahoma State is coming off arguably the most successful regular season in program history. They finished 11-1, defeated arch nemesis Oklahoma 37-33 in its previous game, and are lurking at #5 in the most recent college football rankings. Despite having a lot to still play for including a playoff berth and an opportunity to win a national championship, I firmly believe that they won’t be at their sharpest on Saturday. After all, they already defeated Baylor this season, and are coming off an intense and emotional game against their despised in state rival. Bet Baylor plus the points.

Utah vs. Oregon 8:00 PM ET

Game# 305-306

Play On: Oregon +3.0 (5*)

Oregon is less than 2 weeks removed from being crushed at Utah 38-7. That defeat crushed their college football playoff aspirations. Nevertheless, it must be noted, that underdogs playing with revenge in the postseason have been a huge money-maker. Since 2008, those underdogs went 19-7 (73%) ATS and won 16 of those contests straight up. I like Oregon to bounce back tonight in a big way. Bet Oregon plus the points.

Dallas @ New Orleans 8:20 PM ET

Game# 301-302

Play On: New Orleans +6.0 (5*)

The Dallas Cowboys are coming off 2 straight losses. The latest of which was a 36-33 home loss to Las Vegas on Thanksgiving Day. The Cowboys allowed Las Vegas to amass an alarmingly high 509 yards of total offense in that defeat. That’s far more than their average of 369.5 yards per game for the season. New Orleans defense has been solid this season while allowing a respectable 343.7 yards per game.

Taysom Hill will start at quarterback tonight for the Saints. He’ll provide a needed emotional spark for a Saints offense that’s been underwhelming for a better part of this season. New Orleans looked horrible in their Thanksgiving night 31-6 loss to Buffalo. It was just the 7th time since Sean Payton has been the head coach of New Orleans that the Saints scored fewer than 10 points in a game. Nonetheless, the Saints followed those dismal offensive performances by going 6-0 ATS and 5-1 SU in their next game. Those previously mentioned results include a 28-13 win at New England earlier this season that immediately followed a 26-7 loss to Carolina. Despite their home underdog ATS loss to Buffalo, since 2019, New Orleans has gone a very profitable 9-3 ATS as an underdog and even won 8 of those contests straight up. The current total in this contest is 47.0. The reason I bring that up is that since 2017, New Orleans is 14-0 SU at home whenever there was a total of 45.5 to 49.0.

Any NFL home team (New Orleans) that’s playing after Game 8 of their season, and they’re facing an opponent that allowed 450 yards or more in their previous game, and both teams allow 335-370 yards per game on the season, resulted in those home teams going 34-6 SU (85%) since 1983. Since this NFL straight up betting angle supports the home underdog in this contest it takes on even more added significance. Bet New Orleans plus the points.

Rams @ Packers 4:25 PM ET

Game# 269-270

Play On: Green Bay +2.0 (5*)

The Rams have looked listless in their last 2 games which resulted in SU favorite losses to Tennessee 28-16 and San Francisco 31-10. Green Bay is coming off last Sunday’s 34-31 loss at Minnesota. On a positive note, the Packers have gone 10-0 SU&ATS since 12/9/2018 following a loss and outscored their opponents by an average of 13.9 points per contest. Additionally, Green Bay has gone 4-0 SU&ATS at home this season and allowed 17 points or fewer on each occasion. Bet on Green Bay.

Tampa Bay @ Indianapolis 1:00 PM ET

Game# 257-258

Play On: Tampa Bay -3.0 (5*)

Indianapolis’ offense relies heavily on running back Jonathan Taylor who was magnificent in a 41-15 blowout win at Buffalo last Sunday. Specifically speaking, Taylor rushed for 185 yards and added another 30 receiving while scoring 5 touchdowns. Here in lies the problem for Indianapolis, they will be facing a Tampa Bay run defense which has been one of the league’s best over the past 3 season. This year alone, the Buccaneers defense has held opponents to 94 yards or less rushing in 7 of 10 games. Furthermore, the Colts are just 3-3 at home this season. Their 3 home wins came over the Jags, Jets, and Texans who have a combined record of 6-24 (.200) this season. Bet Tampa Bay minus the points.

Carolina @ Miami 1:00 PM ET

Game# 261-262

Play On: Miami +2.5 (5*)

After losing 6 straight games, the Dolphins have rebounded nicely to go 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3. Their most recent win and cover came in a 24-17 road win over the Jets. The week before they pull off an upset as a 9.0-point home underdog by beating Baltimore 22-10. During this current win streak, Miami has allowed only 12.0 points and 318.7 yards per game while also forcing 7 turnovers. Conversely, Carolina has averaged just 292.7 yards of total offense and committed 5 turnovers throughout its previous 3 game. The Panthers started the season 3-0 and since then is a dismal 2-6 SU&ATS. Bet Miami plus the points.

Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati 1:00 PM ET

Game # 263-264

Play On: Cincinnati -3.5 (5*)

Don’t look now but Cincinnati has won the last 2 meetings between these AFC North Division rivals and that includes 24-10 at Pittsburgh earlier this season. The Bengals are coming off an impressive 32-13 win at Las Vegas.

Pittsburgh has been uninspiring over their past 3 games while going 1-1-1.  They barely escaped with a 29-27 home win over Chicago (4-7) despite being outgained 414-280. They also had an embarrassing 16-16 home time against a Detroit team that’s still winless after 11 games. Then last week their 4th quarter rally fell short in a 41-37 road loss to the Chargers. Somehow the scored was that close considering the Chargers outgained them by a considerable margin of 533-300. Bet Cincinnati minus the points.

Oklahoma @ Oklahoma State 7:30 PM ET

Game# 211-212

Play On: Oklahoma State -4.0 (10*)

Oklahoma State has gone winless in their last 6 versus Oklahoma and failed to cover on 5 of those occasions. Yet, the sportsbooks are unfazed by those head-to-head results with Oklahoma State opening as a 3.5-point favorite in this contest. Their defense has been sensational this season and a major reason for their 10-1 record in addition to being ranked #7 by the college football playoff committee. The Cowboys are allowing 14.9 points and 251.6 yards per game this season. As a matter of fact, the Cowboys are 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 while outscoring their opponents by a cumulative score of 165-23 and allowed a mere 137.8 yards per game. Comparatively, Oklahoma has permitted opponents to average 432.0 yards of total offense per game over its last 7 contests. Bet Oklahoma State minus the points for a Top Play wager.

Pittsburgh @ Syracuse 7:30 PM ET

Game# 157-158

Play On: Pittsburgh -12.5 (5*)

Syracuse has run the ball on 63.3% of their offensive plays this season. Furthermore, 61.1% of their offense yards gained have come via their running game. Those numbers are even more lopsided over their last 3 games where 69.1% of their offensive plays were runs and 77.2% of their yards gained came via their rushing attacks. Syracuse has passed for 66 yards or fewer in each of those previous 3 games. Those types of offensive splits resemble that of a service academy. That will be problematic when facing a Pittsburgh team that’s #7 nationally in stopping the run while allowing only 98.8 yards per game. On the other hand, the Panthers offense has averaged 44.0 points scored and 528.7 yards gained per game throughout its last 3 contests. The Pitt offense led by star senior quarterback Kenny Pickett will be facing a Syracuse defense which has failed to force a turnover in 5 straight games. Bet Pittsburgh minus the points.

Oregon State @ Oregon 3:30 PM ET

Game# 203-204

Play On: Oregon -6.5 (5*)

Oregon will be in a sour mood after last Saturday’s embarrassing 38-7 loss at Utah which knocked them out of the college football playoff picture. Now they take on in state rival Oregon state that’s enjoying an inspiring 7-4 season to this point. However, the Beavers are 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 on the road which included being upset by California 4-6 and Colorado 4-8. Oregon will also be playing with revenge after being upset 41-38 by their bitter rival last season in a game they closed as a 13.0-point road favorite. Oregon is a perfect 6-0 at home this season. Bet Oregon minus the points.

Penn State @ Michigan State 3:30 PM ET

Game# 223-224

Play On: Penn State -3.0 (5*)

This line makes no sense to me. Penn State started the season 5-0 and since that time has gone 2-4. The Nittany Lions are unranked, yet they find themselves as a small favorite versus a 9-2 Michigan State team that’s ranked #12 in the most recent college football playoff rankings. The Spartans were also shellacked last Saturday 56-7 at Ohio State. The Michigan State defense has been shaky all season and over their last 4 games that’s become painfully apparent to Michigan State backers. During that stretch the Spartans allowed 37.5 points and 563.0 yards per game.

The other puzzling part of this current point-spread is the fact that Michigan State is a perfect 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS at home this season while outscoring their opponents by 14.2 points per game. Penn State is just 2-2 SU on the road, but they covered 3 of those contests. Additionally, their only 2 road losses came at #7 Iowa (10-2) by 3 and #2 Ohio State by 9. The Nittany Lions also own a road win over #18 Wisconsin. They’re begging you to take the home underdog. I am not taking the bait. Bet Penn State minus the points.

Charlotte @ Old Dominion 2:00 PM ET

Game# 193-194

Play On: Old Dominion -9.5 (5*)

These teams have identical 5-6 records, but Old Dominion has clearly bee the better team in this latter part of regular season action. Charlotte started the year 4-2 but since then has gone 1-4 SU&ATS. Conversely, Old Dominion started the season 1-5 and has gone 4-0 SU&ATS since. All 5 losses sustained by ODU all came against teams that currently have a winning record.

Throughout their previous 3 games, Charlotte allowed an average of 38.3 points and 520 yards per game. On the other hand, the ODU offense is playing its most productive football of the season during its last 3 contests while averaging 33.7 points scored and 451.0 yards gained per game. Bet on Old Dominion minus the points.

Miami-Ohio @ Kent State 12:00 PM ET

Game# 185-186

Play On: Kent State +1.5 (5*)

Miami has won 4 of their last 5 games. Nonetheless, the fact remains that they are a dismal 1-5 SU on the road. Kent State is 4-0 SU and 3-1 at home and outscored their opponents by an average of 18.0 points per game. Furthermore, the Golden Flashes are average 46.0 points scored and 602.3 yards gained per game at home.

Kent State is coming off a 38-0 win at Akron in their previous game. That win improved their season record to 6-5. Any college football team that’s coming off a conference road win by 35 points or more, and they possess a winning record, resulted in those home teams going 48-8 SU (85.7%) since 2017. Considering what the point-spread is in this contest, this college football straight up betting angle takes on added significance. Bet on Kent State.

Missouri @ Arkansas 3:30 PM ET

Game# 131-132

Play On: Arkansas -14.5 (5*)

Missouri has won its last 2 to improve their season record to 6-5 and become bowl eligible. However, their last 5 wins have all come against teams that currently have a losing record. Missouri is 3-4 in SEC action and allowed 36.3 points and 446.9 yards per game. Conversely, Arkansas is 5-1 at home this season where they average 37.0 points scored and 472.3 yards gained per game. The Razorbacks are coming off a narrow 42-35 loss at #3 Alabama last Saturday. They were able to amass 468 yards against an Alabama defense that’s far better than the one it will face in this matchup. Bet Arkansas minus the points.

Kansas State @ Texas 12:00 PM ET

Game# 121-122

Play On: Texas -3.0 (5*)

I always profess to think like a oddsmaker and that will provide you with an edge that most don’t comprehend. This matchup has a Texas team which gone 0-6 SU&ATS in their last 6 as a small favorite against an opponent in Kansas State who enters their regular season finale with a respectable 7-4 record. It’s rarely that easy in sports betting when things seem so obvious. Besides, Texas has defeated Kansas State in each of the past 4 seasons. Bet Texas minus the points.

Buffalo @ New Orleans 8:20 PM ET

Game# 109-110

Play On: Buffalo -5.5 (10*)

Buffalo will look to rebound from a humiliating and humbling 41-15 home blowout loss to the Colts. However, the Bills have gone 3-0 SU&ATS this season following a loss and win by a decisive margin of 26.0 points per game. So before you start digging a grave for the Bills you should definitely reconsider. Since 2019, Buffalo has gone 15-6 SU and 14-6-1 ATS during regular season away games under current head coach Sean McDermott. That includes 3-0 SU&ATS as a road favorite of 7.0 or less and after Game 6 of the season with an average victory margin of 25.0 points per game. 

New Orleans has been a profitable home underdog under head coach Sean Payton. But most of those occurrences happened with future Hall of Fame quarterback Drew Brees under center and not this year’s backup Trevor Simien. The Saints may also be without star running back Alvin Kamara who is recovering from a knee injury. Bet Buffalo minus the points for a Top Play wager.

Pittsburgh @ LA Chargers 8:20 PM ET

Game# 475-476

Play On: Pittsburgh +5.5 (5*)

This is a huge game for both teams not only in their division but also regarding the AFC Playoff picture going forward. As good as Justin Herbert has been from the start of his young career which started last season, he hasn’t played in any big games in the 2nd half of regular season action. The Chargers don’t exactly come into this week with a ton of momentum after losing 3 of their last 4 games and that includes 0-2 at home. Furthermore, since 2019, the Chargers are 0-5 SU&ATS in their last 5 as a home favorite of between 4.0 and 7.5,. They were outscored in those contests by an average of 5.8 points per game.

Since 2019, Pittsburgh has gone 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games as an underdog of 3.5-9.5 and their average point-spread per contest was +5.8. In that exact situation, the Steelers were a perfect 4-0 SU&ATS if facing an opponent with a win percentage of .625 or less. Conversely, since 2019, the 5-4 (.555) Chargers are just 6-9 ATS (40%) as a home favorite and were also only 7-8 straight up as well. Bet Pittsburgh plus the points.

Cincinnati @ Las Vegas 4:05 PM ET

Game# 469-470

Play On: Las Vegas +1.0 (10*)

Las Vegas is coming off a disheartening 41-13 home underdog loss to Kansas City. That loss dropped their season record to 5-4. They will be facing a Cincinnati team that’s coming off 2 straight losses in which they allowed 37.5 points and 436.0 yards per game. I looked for the Raiders to bounce back in a big way off such a disappointing effort displayed last Sunday.

Since 1984, any home team with a point-spread of -2.5 to +5.0 that’s coming off a home underdog ATS loss, and they have a winning record, and they’re facing a non-division opponent, resulted in those home teams going 10-0 SU&ATS since 1980. The average home team point-spread was +1.2 and they won by 9.7 points per game. Bet Las Vegas for my NFL Game of the Month.

Detroit @ Cleveland 1:00 PM ET

Game# 451-452

Play On: Cleveland -12.0 (5*)

Cleveland is coming off a humiliating 45-7 road loss at New England. That loss dropped their season mark to 5-5. If they hope to stay in the AFC North Division race or even contend for a wildcard spot they can ill afford to lose against a winless Detroit team. Specifically speaking, Detroit is 0-8-1 this season following last Sunday’s 16-16 tie at Pittsburgh. T make matters worse for Detroit, starting quarterback Jared Goff is listed as doubtful.

Any NFL regular season home favorite of between 10.0 and 13.0-points that playing after game 8 and is coming off a loss by 5 points or more, versus an opponent who’s not coming off a win, resulted in those home favorites going 12-0 SU&ATS since 1996. The home teams won those 12 contests by a substantial average of 21.6 points per game. They also held those 12 visting teams to a scant 9.4 points per game. Bet Cleveland minus the points.

Oregon @ Utah 7:30 PM ET

Game# 371-372

Play On: Utah -3.0 (10*)

The #3 Oregon Ducks find themselves as an underdog against #24 Utah and I believe for good reason. After starting 1-2, Utah has won 6 of its last 7. The Utes are also a perfect 4-0 at home where they’ve outscored their opponents by 17.0 points per game. As a matter of fact, they’re 17-1 in their last 18 played in Salt Lake City. The Utes offense has been red-hot while scoring 34 points or more in each of their last 6 games. During that stretch, the Utes have only committed 3 turnovers and gained 455 yards or more in each of those contests. The Oregon offense took a huge hit when star running back C.J. Verdell went down for the season. That will catch up to them in this spot while playing in a hostile environment. Bet Utah minus the points.

Baylor @ Kansas State 5:30 PM ET

Game# 413-414

Play On: Kansas State (5*)

Baylor is coming off a game in which they knocked off undefeated Oklahoma by a score of 17-7. The Bears were sky high in that contest in front of a raucous home crowd. There’s no way humanly possible that the #11 ranked Bears will be able to match that physical or mental intensity when going on the road versus an unranked opponent. However, it must be note, Kansas State is 7-3 and winners of 4 straight game. Bet on Kansas State.

Nebraska @ Wisconsin 3:30 PM ET

Game# 363-364

Play On: Nebraska +10.0 (5*)

This is another game where the line doesn’t make sense, and yes, I’m once again taking a contrarian approach. Since starting the season 1-3, Wisconsin has gone a red-hot 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS. The latest college football poll has them ranked at #15. Yet, they find themselves as a reasonably sized favorite when considering their opponent is 3-7 and losers of 4 in a row. Nonetheless, you can make a strong case that Nebraska is the best team in the country with a losing record. For example, during their present 4-game losing streak they faced #6 Michigan (9-1), #4 Ohio State (9-1), Purdue (6-4) and Minnesota (6-4). Even with that tough stretch of games versus quality opponents they were only outscored by 6.0 points per contest. As a matter of fact, all 7 of the Cornhuskers losses were 1 possession games. Additionally, head coach Scott Frost received a vote of confidence to return next year. That should also relieve stress for the coaching staff and players alike. Bet Nebraska plus the points.

SMU @ Cincinnati 3:30 PM ET

Game# 327-328

Play On: Cincinnati -10.0 (5*)

Despite being 10-0 and posting a quality win at #7 Notre Dame, if the season were to end today, Cincinnati would be on the outside looking in. The biggest criticism of the Bearcats has been their inability to dominate seemingly weaker teams in their own conference. Well, they’ll have a chance to impress the college football committee on Saturday against an 8-2 SMU team. I believe they’ll be more than up to the task. The Bearcats are 5-0 at home while outscoring opponents by 32.4 points and outgaining them by 168.8 yards per contest. The major weakness for SMU is their defense and that’s especially been the case when facing better than average opponents. The Bearcats unequivocally qualify in that regard. Bet Cincinnati minus the points.

Michigan State @ Ohio State 12:00 PM ET

Game# 339-340

Play On: Ohio State -18.0 (5*)

We have the #4 team in the country as nearly a 3-touchdown favorite against #7 Michigan State. I am sure this substantial number will produce a lot more tickets and money bet on the underdog. But I’m here to tell you they are wrong. This isn’t a recoding but think like an oddsmaker if you want to be a successful sports bettor. Why is Ohio State such a large favorite against an opponent who is just 3 spots below them in the latest college football playoff rankings? Simply put, because those sharp and astute professionals see Michigan State the same way I do, and that’s an absolute fraud. Regardless of their superb 9-1 record, Michigan State is terrible defensively, and they will be facing a red-hot Ohio State offense that’s #1 nationally in scoring and yards gained. Conversely, Michigan State is #111 in total defense having given up 444.0 yards per game this season. Don’t get suckered into taking the sizable underdog. Lay the points with Ohio State.

Wake Forest @ Clemson 12:00 PM ET

Game# 361-362

Play On: Clemson -4.0 (5*)

This is another one of those college football betting situations that I love taking a contrarian approach. Wake Forest is 9-1 and ranked #10 in the latest college football poll yet they fin themselves as more than a field goal underdog against an unranked team. The biggest enigma for Wake Forest is their defense. The Demon Deacons has allowed 34 or more points and 500 yards or greater in 5 of its last 6 games.

Clemson is enduring an uncharacteristic season in which they never seriously threatened being a national title contender. However, they have won 3 in a row to improve their season record to 7-3. The Tigers defense has been stellar all season. The Tigers are also a perfect 5-0 at home this season and allowed a mere 10.2 points and 248.2 yards per game. They will be up to the task against Wake’s explosive offense. The Tigers offense has struggle for most of this season. On a positive note, Clemson has scored 34.7 points per contest during their current win streak. Bet Clemson minus the points.

Iowa State @ Oklahoma 12:00 PM ET

Game# 401-402

Play On: Iowa State +3.5 (5*)

Oklahoma is coming off their first loss of the season last week at Baylor. The Sooners have a huge in-state rivalry game up next versus 9-1 Oklahoma State. This sets up as a flat spot for Oklahoma.

Iowa State is coming off a 41-38 upset loss to Texas Tech last week. That dropped their season record to 6-4. The Cyclones have gone 3-0 SU&ATS this season following a loss and won by a massive margin of 43.3 points per game. Iowa State will also be out to revenge their 27-21 loss to Oklahoma in last season’s Big 12 Championship game. Bet Iowa State plus the points.

Toledo @ Ohio 7:00 ET

Game# 303-304

Play On: Ohio +7.0 (5*)

Toledo is coming off a 49-17 win over arguably the MAC’s worst team Bowling Green. The Rockets have been the model of inconsistency this season evidenced by a 1-3 record following a win. Their only win in that sequence came over a 1-9 Massachusetts team whose lone victory came over Connecticut team that’s gone 0-7 versus FBS teams. Toledo has gone over the total in each of their previous 2 games. Since 2019, the Rockets are 0-6 ATS following 2 consecutive games going over the total and were outscored by an average of 13.5 points per contest.

Ohio started the season 0-4 SU&ATS and the cumulative score was 141-55. However, we must keep in mind that long time head coach Frank Solich abruptly decided to retire just before summer camp which caused some instability heading into the season. Since that time, Ohio is 5-1 ATS and 3-3 SU with all coming versus MAC opponents. As a matter of fact, their 3 conference losses have come by a combined 11 points. The Bobcats are coming off 2 consecutive SU wins as an underdog over Eastern Michigan and Miami-Ohio. They rushed for 178.3 yards per game during those 2 victories in addition to averaging a robust 8.8 yards per passing attempt. Bet Ohio plus the points.

Kansas City @ Las Vegas 8:20 PM ET

Game# 263-264

Play On: Las Vegas +2.5 (5*)

The Chiefs have failed to cover in each of their previous 3 and are 2-7 ATS for the season. The Kansas City high powered offense has been stymied over their previous 3 contests while averaging just 12.0 points scored and 313.0 yards gained per game. The Chiefs are coming off an uninspiring 13-7 home win over Green Bay who was without Aaron Rodgers. The Chiefs amassed only 237 yards offense in that loss. The Chiefs have been consistently good when it comes to turnover margin since Andy Reid took over as head coach. That’s not been the case this season as the Chiefs have a turnover margin of -9.

The Raiders are coming off a disappointing 23-16 road loss to the Giants last Sunday. The Raiders shot themselves in the foot by committing 3 turnovers. However, their defense surrendered only 245 yards. This will be their first meeting versus Kansas City this season. Las Vegas went 1-1 SU and 2-0 ATS versus Kansas City last season and scored 31 and 40 points in those contests. Bet the Raiders plus the points.

Minnesota @ LA Chargers 4:05 PM ET

Game# 255-256

Play On: Minnesota +3.0 (5*)

The Chargers enter this week 5-3 with 2 of those losses coming at home. Los Angeles is coming off a 27-24 win at Philadelphia last week in a game they accumulated 445 yards of total offense. Unfortunately for Chargers backers, since 2019, their team has gone an abysmal 2-12 SU and 2-11-1 ATS following a contest in which they had 400 yards or more of total offense.

The Vikings are coming off a gut-wrenching 34-31 overtime loss at Baltimore in a game they blew a 14-point 2nd half lead. However, they did cover rather easily as a 7.0-point underdog. On a positive note, since Mike Zimmer has taken over as head coach, Minnesota has gone a terrific 25-4 ATS 986.2%) during their last 29 when coming off a loss. You can make a strong argument that Minnesota is the best NFL team without a winning record. After all, they’re 3-5 with all their losses coming by 7 points or fewer and an average of 3.6 points per defeat. I’m looking for Minnesota running backs to have a productive day against a Charges defense ranking dead last in the NFL at stopping the run (161.6 YPG). That’s only going to make their play action passing game to be that more successful. Bet Minnesota plus the points.

Carolina @ Arizona 4:05 PM ET

Game# 257-258

Play On: Arizona -10.0 (5*)

The Panthers have lost 5 of their last 6. During their previous 3 games the Chargers dreadful has been dreadful while averaging 9.3 points scored and 248.3 yards gained per game. The situation doen’t look any rosier this week with backup quarterback P.J. Walker getting the start. Not to mention they will be facing an Arizona defense which has allowed just 17.2 points and 321.0 yards per game this season.

The Arizona didn’t miss a beat last week with Colt McCoy filling in for injured starter Kyler Murray at quarterback McCoy led Arizona to a 31-17 win at San Francisco. McCoy was an outstanding 23-27 for 274 yards passing without an interception. The Cardinals ran the ball for 163 yards as well. Arizona enters this week with a stellar 8-1 record and 6 of their wins have come by 12 points or more. Bet Arizona minus the points.

Nevada @ San Diego 10:30 PM ET

Game# 223-224

Play On: San Diego State -3.0 (5*)

When it comes purely to my eye test, I believe Nevada is the better team in this matchup. However, when talking about a betting situation, I firmly believe the #22 San Diego State Aztecs (8-1) are the right side on Saturday. Additionally, there’s been a huge line move on this contest and for no apparent reason other than extremely sharp money being wagered on San Diego State. It’s never a bad idea to follow a sharp money move of this magnitude. Bet San Diego State minus the points.

NC State @ Wake Forest 7:30 PM ET

Game# 147-148

Play On: NC State +2.0 (5*)

Wake Forest is coming off a gut wrenching 58-55 loss at North Carolina last week in a game they led by 14 heading into the 4th quarter. That resulted in the Demon Deacons first loss of the season and put to rest any possible way of reaching the college football playoffs. I will go out on a limb and say the emotional toll taken from that defeat will carry over to this week. Couple that with them facing #16 NC State (7-2) and it doesn’t present a favorable betting situation for the small home favorite. The Wake Forest offense is undeniably an explosive group. Nonetheless, this will be unequivocally the best defense they’ve faced all season. The Wolfpack stop unit has allowed 14 points or fewer in 5 of their 9 games. Bet on NC State plus the small number.

Ole Miss @ Texas A&M 7:00 PM ET

Game# 195-196

Play On: Ole Miss +2.5 (5*)

Both teams enter this contest nationally ranked and with identical 7-2 overall records. Nevertheless, home field advantage will be key to us covering this contest. Ole Miss has gone 5-0 at home this season and outscored their opponents by an average of 21.0 points per game. During those home contests, Ole Miss has averaged 45.0 points and 575.6 yards per game. Ole Miss is an impressive +11 in turnover margin and has committed only 5 giveaways in 9 games played. The Rebels just don’t beat themselves. Bet Ole Miss plus the points.

Purdue @ Ohio State 3:30 PM ET

Game# 199-200

Play On: Ohio State -20.5 (10*)

Purdue is coming off last week’s shocking 40-29 upset win over then #3 Michigan State. The Boilermakers also pulled off a similar type upset earlier this season over then #2 and undefeated Iowa. Nevertheless. They enter this game against the #4 Buckeyes as a 3-touchdown underdog. Purdue has been solid defensively this season. However, they will have their hands full against a balanced Ohio State offense that is averaging 44.9 points and 541.8 yards per game. The Buckeyes will make a statement in this one against #19 Purdue and solidify their position within the top 4 college football playoff spots. Bet Ohio State minus the points for a Top Play wager.

Oklahoma @ Baylor 12:00 PM ET

Game# 149-150

Play On: Baylor +5.5 (5*)

The mighty Oklahoma Sooners are unbeaten at 9-0, yet the college football playoff committee has them ranked #8 going into this week, and with five 1 loss teams ranked ahead of them. They don’t think the Sooners are as good as their record indicates and neither do I. They will have their hands full at #13 Baylor (7-2) on Saturday. The Bears have gone a perfect 5-0 at home this season which includes quality wins over Iowa State, Texas, and BYU who were all ranked in the Top 25 for a large portion of this season before dropping out. Bet Baylor plus the points.

East Carolina @ Memphis 12:00 ET

Game# 173-174

Play On: East Carolina +5.5 (5*)

I love this spot for the underdog Pirates. Memphis is coming off a huge 28-25 home win over SMU. I'm looking for this to be a flat spot for the Tigers.

East Carolina is coming off a 45-3 blowout win over Temple. That’s the same Temple team that beat Memphis just a few weeks back. With that victory, East Carolina has gone a solid 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS over their previous 7 games. That’s the same South Carolina team that routed Florida 40-16 last Saturday. Bet East Carolina plus the points.

Mississippi State @ Auburn 12:00 PM ET

Game# 175-176

Play On: Mississippi State +5.5 (5*)

Mississippi is a deceiving 5-4 this season when considering they suffered 3 of those losses by 3 points or fewer. With a little bit of lick the Bulldogs could very easily have been 8-1 at this point. Mississippi State has posted quality wins over #11 Texas A&M (7-2), # 16 NC State (7-2), and Kentucky (6-3). Mississippi State is 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS on the road this season while their defense held opponents to just 272.8 yards per game. Mississippi State has a yards per game differential of +120.3 this season while Auburn comes in at -43.2. That’s a huge +163.5-yard difference and especially when considering it favors the underdog. Bet on Mississippi State plus the points.

Ball State @ Northern Illinois 7:00 PM ET

Game# 111-112

Play On: Northern Illinois +2.5 (5*)

It’s never a bad thing when your head coach signs a contract extension a day before a game. That’s exactly what happened with Northern Illinois head coach Thomas Hammock just yesterday. This certainly brings a sense of security and positivity to the coaching staff and players. By, the way, after going 0-6 last season in a pandemic shortened campaign, Northern Illinois enters this week leading the MAC West Division with a 4-1 record and is 6-3 overall. Besides their stellar conference record, Northern Illinois pulled off an upset win in their season opener at Georgia Tech and did so as a 19.0-point underdog. Ball State narrowly escaped with a 31-25 win at Akron and didn’t come close to covering as a 20.0-point favorite.  Bet Northern Illinois plus the small number.

Bears @ Steelers 8:15 PM ET

Game# 475-476

Play On: Steelers -7.0 (5*)

The Bears are pathetic on offense and that’s been a key contributing factor to them going 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 games. During that stretch, the Bears lost by an average of 18.7 points per game. Speaking of the Bears anemic offense, they are averaging 10.8 points scored and 233.0 yards gained per game throughout 4 road contests. Chicago is coming off last Sunday’s 33-22 home loss to San Francisco. Since 2019 and all under current head coach Matt Nagy, Chicago has gone 0-5 SU&ATS as a road underdog and following a loss in their previous game. Their average point-spread was +8.1 in those contests and they lost by a decisive margin of 15.6 points game.

Many counted the Steelers out after their poor 1-3 start. However, they’ve rebounded to win their last 3. Their defense has been outstanding over their current win streak in allowing just 16.3 points and 329.7 yards per game. By the way, since 2018 and all under present head coach Mike Tomlin, Pittsburgh is 6-0 SU&ATS as a home favorite of 3.0 or more following 2 or more wins in a row, and they won by a substantial margin of 19.8 points per game. Bet Pittsburgh minus the points.

Chargers @ Eagles 4:05 PM ET

Game# 467-468

Play On: Eagles +1.5 (10*)

You may be surprised to know that the Chargers are dead last in the NFL at stopping the run. They rank #32 in rushing yards allowed per game (159.6) and #32 at rush yards allowed per attempt (5.1). Furthermore, over their last 3 contests, the Chargers defense has allowed 186.0 yards rushing per game and that alone was a major contributing factor to them entering this week on a 2-game losing streak.

Philadelphia should be able to the run the ball with a huge amount of success, not only because their opponent is inept stopping it, but because they’ve had some degree of success in doing so up until now. The Eagles are coming off a 44-6 blowout win over Detroit last week and amassed 236 rushing years. The Eagles enter this week #7 in offensive rushing yards per game (131.7) and #4 in yards per rushing attempts (5.0).

Any NFL home team (Eagles) with a win percentage of .333 or better, coming off a road win by 23 points or more, versus an opponent (Chargers) coming off a home game where both teams scored 24 points or more, and they have a win percentage of .750 or worse, resulted in those home teams going 33-2 SU (94.2%) since 1983. The straight up betting angle takes on added significance when considering the current point-spread. Bet the Eagles for a Top Play wager.

Vikings @ Ravens 1:00 PM ET

Game# 455-456

Play On: Vikings +6.0 (5*)

Minnesota has enough offensive juice to stay in this game throughout. Especially when considering, the Ravens defense has allowed 491 yards or more in 3 of its first 7 games. The Vikings look to rebound off a home favorite 20-16 loss to Dallas last Sunday. Conversely, Baltimore is coming off a 41-17 blowout loss to Cincinnati in a game they closed as a 6.5-point home favorite. I wouldn’t be shocked to see an outright upset but taking the generous points we’re being afforded is a winning ticket.

Any NFL team (Vikings) playing after Game 5 of their season as a road underdog of 3.0 to 6.5 and is coming off a loss, versus an opponent (Ravens) coming off a home favorite straight up loss by 10 points or more, resulted in those teams going 8-0 ATS and 7-1 SU since 2003. Bet the Vikings plus the points.

Patriots @ Panthers 1:00 PM ET

Game# 457-458

Play On: Panthers +4.0 (5*)

The Patriots are coming last Sunday’s 27-24 road win over the Chargers which improved their season record to 4-4. Now they go on the road again but opposed to last week they find themselves as a favorite and not underdog.

Much ado will be made in NFL betting circles about the availability of Carolina starting quarterback Sam Darnold. However, I’m here to tell you there’s very little if any drop off when they go to backup P.J. Walker. Especially when considering how Darnold has performed in recent weeks. With that being said, it’s the Carolina defense that will earn us a cover. The Panthers are allowing just 19.9 points and 295.6 yards per game. The Panthers are coming off last Sunday’s 19-13 win at Atlanta in a game they closed as a 2.5-point underdog. Since Matt Ruhle became Carolina’s head coach in 2019, the Panthers have gone a profitable 6-1 ATS and 5-2 SU following an underdog SU win. Bet the Panthers plus the points.

Browns @ Bengals 1:00 PM ET

Game# 461-462

Play On: Browns +2.5 (5*)

For starters, the Browns are 5- versus the Bengals over the past 3 years which includes a 2-game sweep last season. Cincinnati showed their inexperience on handling success after last week’s 34-31 road loss to the Jets in a game they closed as a substantial 11.5point favorite and dropped their record to 5-2 (.625). The Browns are coming off a disappointing 15-10 home favorite loss to Pittsburgh. The combination of those results and existing data leads to a never lost NFL betting angle which is displayed below.

Any NFL team (Browns) that’s coming off a SU favorite loss in which they failed to cover by 9.0-points or more, and they’re playing after Game 5 of their season, versus an opponent (Bengals) coming off a road game in which both teams scored 24 points or more, and they possess a win percentage of .625 or worse, resulted in those team like the Browns going 11-0 SU&ATS since 2017. The average margin of victory in those 11 contests came by a healthy 16.0 points per game. Bet the Browns plus the small number.

Mississippi State @ Arkansas 4:00 PM ET

Game# 375-376

Play On: Arkansas -4.0 (10*)

Mississippi State is coming off last Saturday’s home win over nationally ranked Kentucky. That victory was key in the Bulldogs being ranked #17 in the first college football playoff poll. Yet they’re an underdog against an Arkansas team that failed to crack the Top 25 in that very same poll, and with an identical 5-3 record as they possess. Arkansas is also coming off a bye week which is always an advantage when facing an unrested opponent at this point of the season.

Both teams defenses are solid. Mississippi State has passed on an enormous 72.4% of their offensive snaps this season. Conversely, Arkansas has run the ball on 65.7% of their offensive snaps this season. However, the Razorbacks still average over 200 passing yards per game and extremely impressive 9.0 yards per pass attempt. The defenses will cancel each other out, Arkansas is unequivocally the more balanced offensive team. That will be the key to us attaining a successful cover. Bet Arkansas minus the points for my SEC Game of the Year.

Michigan State @ Purdue 3:30 PM ET

Game# 393-394

Play On: Purdue +3.0 (5*)

Why is the #3 ranked team in the latest college football poll Michigan State (8-0) only a 3-point favorite at unranked Purdue? I’ll tell you why, because like myself the oddsmakers don’t believe Michigan State is as good as their record and current ranking indicates. Besides, I can’t imagine that the Spartans can come close to matching the level of intensity they displayed at home last week against bitter rival and still #7 ranked Michigan. Furthermore, Michigan State needed to overcome a sizable 16-point 2nd half deficit on their way to a 37-33 win. Purdue is coming off last week’s 28-23 win at Nebraska which leaves them 1 win away from bowl eligibility. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Purdue pull off an outright upset in this spot. Nevertheless, let’s not get greedy and take the points being given to us. Bet Purdue plus the points.

SMU @ Memphis 12:00 PM ET

Game# 377-378

Play On: Memphis +5.0 (5*)

SMU is coming off their first loss of the season 44-37 at Houston. SMU is a quick tempo high scoring team. In any event, the Mustangs are vulnerable defensively and that equation has been a familiar theme during recent seasons. Their defensive ineptness places an inordinate amount of pressure on its offense to be near perfect on a weekly basis. It’s extremely difficult for a team like SMU subscribing to that formula without slipping up on 2-3 occasions over the course of a season.

Memphis hasn’t played up to their standards this season, and as a result, the Tigers are currently 4-4. Nonetheless, they are 3-1 at home with their lone loss coming against #16 UTSA (8-0), and even then it came by a slim 3-point margin. As a matter of fact, Memphis has gone an outstanding 30-2 SU in their last 32 at home which includes 6-0 ATS as an underdog with 5 of those resulting in SU wins. Memphis is also 18-1 in their last 19 conference home games with their lone setback transpiring back in 2018 which was a narrow 1-point loss to then nationally ranked Central Florida. It also should be noted, 3 of the Tigers 4 losses have come by 6 points or fewer. Bet Memphis plus the points.

Ohio State @ Nebraska 12:00 PM ET

Game# 373-374

Play On: Nebraska +15.0 (5*)

Nebraska enters this Big 10 showdown with #5 Ohio State with a disappointing 3-6 record. However, all 6 of those losses have come by 8 points or fewer. That includes losses to #3 Michigan State by 3, #7 Michigan by 3, #8 Oklahoma by 7, and #20 Minnesota by 7. Even more compelling is the fact that they have outgained their 9 opponents by an average of 121.7 yards per game. Additionally, all 3 of Nebraska’s wins have come at home. Despite the disparity in these team’s records, Nebraska is battle tested and more than capable of giving Ohio State all they can handle. Bet Nebraska plus the points.

Jets @ Colts 8:20 PM ET

Game# 311-312

Play On: Colts -10.0 (5*)

The Jets are coming off a shocking upset of Cincinnati last week and they did so as an 11.5-point home underdog. They piled up an enormous 511 yards of total offense against a Cincinnati defense which had been stout up until that point. Their previous high was 355 yards in their only other win which came as a home underdog against Tennessee. Now the Jets go on the road where they’re 0-3 SU&ATS this season and were outscored by a massive 24.0 points per game. Additionally, since 2019, the Jets are 4-12 ATS as a road underdog and were outscored by an average of 15.2 points per contest. Jets quarterback Mike White had an awesome NFL starting debut last week while throwing for over 400 yards. However, the Colts will be the first team he’ll face who had extensive tape on him to look at and I don’t anticipate him coming closing to matching his tremendous performance just 4 days ago. Not to mention, White will be making his first NFL road start and doing so on an abbreviated work week.

The Colts are coming off a disappointing 34-31 overtime loss to Tennessee in a game they closed as a 2.5-point home favorite. The good news, since 2019 and all under current head coach Frank Reich, the Colts are 5-0 SU&ATS immediately after a straight up favorite loss with an average victory margin of 13.2 points per game. The Colts enter this week with an uninspiring 3-5 record. Nevertheless, their 5 losses have come against opponents that presently have a combined record of 21-9 (.700). Bet the Colts minus the points.