Utah vs. Penn State 5:00 PM ET

Game# 283-284

Play On: Utah +1.5 (5*)

Penn State ended the regular season on a 4-game win streak to improve its record to 10-2 (.833). However, in their 2 marquee games this season they lost to Michigan 41-17 and at home to Ohio State 44-31. The Nittany Lions allowed a combined 1015 yards in those defeats. They’ll be facing a Utah team in the Rose Bowl that’s one of just a handful of college football squads that can match or exceed their physicality.

Since Kyle Whittingham took over as head coach Utah, the Utes have gone 11-4 SU and 10-5 ATS in either bowl games of Conference Championship contests. That includes 9-0 ATS and 8-1 SU if their point-spread was -2.5 to +9.5 in those postseason games. Utah is coming off USC 47-24 as a 2.5-point underdog in the PAC-12 Championship Game that improved their season record 10-3 (.769).

College Football teams like Utah who have a point-spread parameter of +2.5 to -2.5 +2.5 and are playing after Game 10 with a win percentage of .857 or less, and they’re coming off a SU underdog win by 7 points or greater in which they scored 35 points or more, versus opponents like Penn State that have a win percentage of better than .600, resulted in those teams going 12-0 SU&ATS since 2001.

Give me Utah over Penn State.

Tulane vs. USC 1:00 PM ET

Game# 279-280

Play On: Tulane +2.5 (5*)

This line jumped right off the screen at me when it first came out. We have mighty USC who blew a sure College Football Playoff invite when they fell to Utah in the PAC-12 Championship Game. Now they’re less than a field goal favorite with little to no line movement off the opener while facing Tulane from a Group-Of-5 Conference (AAC). The totality of those previous 3 sentences speaks volumes to me. As a result, and just like I expected public perception will be askew when assessing who to take in this game. The consensus obvious choice would be USC and especially for those looking through a narrow lens. The Green Wave are for real. They defeated Big 12 champion Kansas State on the road earlier this season. That’s the same Kansas State that beat TCU (13-1) in their Conference Championship Game. By the way, TCU will be playing Georgia for College Football National Championship Game on January 9th.

Enough said, give me Tulane plus the small number.

Ohio State vs. Georgia 8:00 PM ET

Game# 273-274

Play On: Ohio State +6.0 (10*)

Fresh in the minds of many is Ohio State’s embarrassing home blowout loss to Michigan. The Buckeyes allowed 45 points and 542 yards in that defeat. Despite that poor defensive showing, the Buckeyes defense still allows just 19.3 points and 304.1 yards per game. The Georgia defense has been an elite unit for the past 2 seasons. However, LSU may have exposed a weakness in Georgia’s pass defense during the SEC Championship Game. LSU Tigers was able to rack up 502 passing yards in a loss. On the other hand, Ohio State has averaged 44.5 points and 492.8 yards per game this season. Because of those last 2 points, we have a puncher’s chance with the underdog Buckeyes explosive offense.

Give me Ohio State plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Kansas State vs. Alabama 12:00 PM ET

Game# 271-272

Play On: Kansas State +7.0 (5*)

Kansas State enters this Sugar Bowl matchup with mighty Alabama on an extremely high level of confidence. The Wildcats went 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 including an upset of then undefeated TCU in the Big 12 Conference Championship game. Now they get to take on the current biggest brand name in College Football. Kansas State has been terrific offensively throughout their previous 7 contests while averaging 38.7 points scored and 442.3 yards gained per game. They’ll be facing a Crimson Tide defense which looked a bit vulnerable in their final 3 regular season games versus LSU, Ole Miss, and Auburn. During that stretch, Alabama allowed a mere mortal 27.7 points and 388.3 yards per game.

Here's a key element in which I believe why Kansas State will at the very least keep this game close throughout. The Wildcats have an outstanding turnover margin of +14 this season. Conversely, Alabama comes in at a -4. Here’s another, Kansas State’s emotional edge over Alabama. Nick Saban has built this program to the standard that anything less than a national championship isn’t acceptable. Let alone what occurred this season where they failed to reach both the SEC Championship Game and the College Football Playoffs. Kansas State on the other hand, will be extremely excited for this opportunity in a major bowl game and expecting to win.

Give me Kansas State plus the points.

Oklahoma vs. Florida State 5:30 PM ET

Game# 255-256

Play On: Florida State -9.5 (5*)

Oklahoma enters the bowl season with a disappointing 6-6 record under 1st year head coach Brett Venables. The Sooners were 1-6 SU and 0-7 this season in games they allowed 14 points or greater. They’ll be facing a Florida State team that hasn’t scored 14 points or fewer in any game this season. Furthermore, Oklahoma has allowed 38 points or more in 6 of its last 9 and 400 yards or greater in 8 of its previous 9 games.

Florida State is on a path of returning to the glory days in year 3 of head coach Mike Norvell’s tenure. The Seminoles finished regular season action with a stellar 9-3 record. Furthermore, they went 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS over their last 5 games. During this current winning streak, the Seminoles averaged 43.6 points scored and 490.6 yards per game. Florida State is also 3-0 SU&ATS this season versus non-conference FBS opponents. The Seminoles defense isn’t too shabby as well. They’re allowing just 19.7 points and 308.0 yards per game. Florida State won’t beat themselves, evidenced by them committing only 12 turnovers this season.

Give me Florida State minus the points.

Texas Tech vs. Ole Miss 2:00 PM ET

Game# 251-252

Play On: Texas Tech +3.5 (5*)

These teams enter the bowl season on opposite sides of the momentum meter. Texas Tech finished its regular season schedule by going 3-0 SU&ATS to end up 7-5. On the other hand, after beginning the season 7-0 and being ranked in the Top 10, Ole Miss lost 4 of its last 5, and includes a current 3-game losing streak. Despite Ole Miss coming from the powerful SEC, Texas Tech has played a slightly tougher schedule according to the metrics I use to determine that matchup element.

Give me Texas Tech plus the points.

UCF vs. Duke 2:00 PM ET

Game# 245-246

Play On: Duke -3.0 (5*)

Duke won 4 of their last 5 to finish its regular season slate 8-4. All 4 of the Blue Devils losses came by 8 points or fewer. As a matter of fact, their previous 3 defeats came by a combined 8 points. Unlike most teams this bowl season including UCF, Duke’s roster has remained intact with regards to transfer portal losses or players opting out for the 2023 NFL draft. During that 4-1 stretch to finish the regular season, Duke allowed a mere 90.6 yards rushing per game. That's not good news for UCF since they went 0-3 SU&ATS this season when rushing for less than 160 yards in a game and lost by 14.7 yards per contest. Another key element is Duke averages 33:00 in time of possession per game and is effectively balanced offensively. Lastly, Duke doesn’t beat themselves. The Blue Devils have committed 10 turnovers all season and are a +14 in turnover margin.

Give me Duke minus the points.

East Carolina vs. Coastal Carolina 6:45 PM ET

Game# 241-242

Play On: East Carolina -7.0 (5*)

East Carolina has gone 6 consecutive games without committing a turnover. As a matter of fact, that had 0 turnovers in 8 of 12 games this season. After starting the season 9-1, Coastal Carolina lost it’s last 2 to Troy 45-26 and James Madison 47-7. Conversely, Coastal Carolina committed 6 turnovers in their last 3 games alone which is 1 less than East Carolina had all season.

Coastal Carolina star quarterback Grayson McCall is set to return from injury and play despite entering his name into the transfer portal. It also remains to be seen how sharp McCall will be after not seeing live action for an extended period. Additionally, successful head coach Jamey Chadwell notified the school after the Chanticleers loss in the Sun Belt Championship Game that he’ll be leaving to take the job at Liberty. Other than more money which is most always alluring, it appears to be a lateral move and certainly won’t bode well in terms of team morale.

East Carolina has an impressive passing game that averages 288 yards per contest in the air. Conversely, Coastal Carolina was last in the Sun Belt Conference in pass yards allowed. Specifically speaking, the Chanticleers allowed 278 or more passing yards in their last 5 and 9 of its previous 11 games.

Give me East Carolina minus the points.

UL-Lafayette vs. Houston 3:00 PM ET

Game# 229-230

Play On: Houston -7.0 (5*)

UL-Lafayette has lost 2 starters for this game due to them opting out for the NFL Draft. They include top wide receiver Michael Jefferson and star defensive end Andre Jones. On the one occasion the Ragin Cajuns stepped in class this season, they were blown out 49-17 at Florida State.

Houston finished the regular season with a somewhat disappointing 7-5 record. However, this is an offense that’s been clicking on all cylinders while averaging 41.7 points scored per game over their last 7 contests and amassed 445 yards or more of total offense on each occasion. The Cougars are #14 nationally in scoring offense at 37.5 points per game. They also possess the 7th best passing offense in the country while averaging 321.1 yards in the air per game. The Cougars have unequivocally played the stronger schedule in this matchup.

Give me Houston minus the points.

Liberty vs. Toledo 7:30 PM ET

Game# 223-224

Play On: Liberty +4.0 (5*)

This Boca Raton Bowl opened with Toledo being a 1.0-point favorite and was quickly moved to 3.5 and 4.0. The move had to do more with the departure of head coach Hugh Freeze who left Liberty to take the same position at Auburn than money related. Since the interim tag was removed from Jason Candle at Toledo, the Rockets have gone a dismal 0-4 SU&ATS in bowl games under his guidance, and 3 of those defeats came as a favorite. Conversely, since becoming a FBS team, Liberty has gone 3-0 SU&ATS in bowl games with 2 of those wins coming as an underdog.

Give me Liberty plus the points.

Florida vs. Oregon State 2:30 PM ET

Game# 215-216

Play On: Oregon State -8.0 (10*)

This will be a depleted Florida roster that will enter Saturday’s Las Vegas Bowl. Quite frankly, they were an average at best team before the loss of players to the transfer portal and opt out for the NFL Draft since their regular season slate concluded. The Gators finished 6-6 during regular season action which included 1-4 in neutral site or away games and allowed 31 points or more in those losses.

Oregon State enters this bowl game riding a ton of momentum after completing a 9-3 regular season campaign which culminated with a 38-34 win over bitter in state rival Oregon. They also saw 2 of their 3 losses come by exactly 3 points versus nationally ranked Washington and USC.

Give me Oregon State minus the points for a Top Play wager.

Clemson vs. North Carolina 8:00 PM ET

Game# 321-322

Play On: Clemson -7.5 (5*)

North Carolina was 9-1 to start the season before losing their last 2 regular season games versus Wake Forest and Georgia Tech. Despite their still stellar 9-3 record, the tar Heels defense isn’t championship caliber. That’s been a common theme during Mack Brown’s second tenure as the Tar Heels head coach. His teams post winning records that are more of a result of superb offensive play than its defensive prowess. The Tar Heels are a misleading 6-0 this season in games not played at Chapel Hill. Nevertheless, they were just a +3.3 point per game differential in those contests and their opponents average 35.0 points scored per occurrence. Furthermore, 5 of those 6 wins came by 3 points or fewer and the other being a 7-point victory over Georgia State.

Clemson has gone 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 ACC Championship games and outscored their opponents by an average of 25.8 points per contest. The Tigers are coming off a 31-30 upset loss to South Carolina in their regular season finale. Since the start of the 2012 season, Clemson is 14-0 SU following a loss. Those results include 5-0 ATS as a favorite of 14.0 or less and with an average victory margin of 13.6 points per game. Simply put, Clemson hasn’t lost 2 straight games since 2011 and with them laying a single-digit number on Saturday it creates a strong betting value.

Give me Clemson minus the points.

Purdue vs. Michigan 8:00 PM ET

Game# 323-324

Play On: Purdue +17.0 (10*)

Since 2017, Purdue has gone an extremely profitable 18-4 ATS (81.8%) as an underdog of 4.0 or more and they won 11 of those 22 contests straight up. By the way, 2017 is the year Jeff Brohm took over as their head coach. The Boilermakers are coming off a 30-16 win at Indiana in their regular season finale and covered as a 10.0-point favorite. That victory improved their season record to 8-4 (.666). Conversely, Michigan comes off a huge 45-23 upset win at bitter rival Ohio State and did so as a 9.0-point underdog to conclude their regular season slate with an undefeated 12-0 record. It must be noted that college football neutral site favorites of 10.0 or greater that are coming off an away underdog of 9.0 or greater SU upset win, resulted in those teams going 0-6 ATS since 2002.

College Football conference underdogs of 10.0 to 20.0 that are coming off a conference away favorite ATS win, and they possess a win percentage of .666 or better, versus an undefeated opponent (Michigan) that’s coming off an ATS win in which they scored 56 points or fewer, resulted in those conference underdogs of 10.0 to 20.0 going 14-0 ATS since 1980.

Give me Purdue plus the points.

LSU vs. Georgia 4:00 PM ET

Game# 317-318

Play On: Georgia -17.5 (5*)

Georgia (12-0) is a tremendous defensive team that has allowed 14 points or fewer in 8 of 12 games this season. The Bulldogs have also allowed 22 points or fewer in all 12 of their regular season games. Additionally, Georgia has allowed 22 points or fewer in 29 of its previous 30 games. The offense will certainly do their part, but defense will ultimately earn us a cover.

Brian Kelly has done a superb job in his 1st year as head coach at LSU. His Tigers are 9-3 and find themselves in the SEC Championship Game versus the nation’s top-ranked team. LSU was a shiny 6-1 SU&ATS at home this season. However, in all other games not played in Baton Rouge they were 3-1 SU but 0-4 ATS. That basically tells me they’ve played far beneath expectations in those contests.

Give me Georgia minus the points.

Fresno State @ Boise State 4:00 PM ET

Game# 315-316

Play On: Fresno State +3.0 (5*)

These teams just played one another on October 18th and Boise State walked away with a 40-20 final score. However, the final score was very deceiving when considering that Fresno State had a total yards advantage of 443-233. Since that defeat, Fresno State has won 7 consecutive contests and won by a convincing average of 21.3 points per game. The Bulldogs rushed for a season high 316 yards in that loss and only threw the ball 18 times. This is also a Fresno State offense that’s amassed 313 or more passing yards in 4 of its last 5 games while also posting a turnover differential of +8 during that stretch.

Give me Fresno State plus the points.

Coastal Carolina @ Troy 3:30 PM ET

Game# 311-312

Play On: Troy -8.0 (5*)

Coastal Carolina is coming off a 47-7 loss at James Madison in their regular season finale. That dropped their season record to 9-2 (.818). The Chanticleers have been without starting senior quarterback Grayson McCall for the last 2 games and he’ll be sidelined for this Sun Belt Conference Championship Game. Without McCall, the Chanticleers have averaged just 16.5 point scored and 276.5 yards gained per game. Those offensive numbers are significantly below their season averages.

Troy started the season 1-2 and since that time have reeled off 9 consecutive wins in a row to close out regular season play. Not only have they won 9 straight, but they also went an extremely profitable 7-2 ATS over that stretch. Troy will be playing with plenty of revenge after losing the last 3 versus Coastal Carolina. All those defeats came by 7 points or fewer.

College Football conference home favorites of 16.5 or less with a win percentage of .800 or better who are playing after Game 3, and they’re coming off a road win by 14 points or more, versus an opponent with a win percentage of .800 or better, resulted in those conference home favorites going 17-3 ATS (85%) since 2018. Those home favorites also won all 20 of those contests SU and by an average of 15.8 points per game.

Give me Troy minus the points.

Toledo vs. Ohio 12:00 PM ET

Game# 309-310

Play On: Ohio +3.0 (10*)

These teams finished on opposite paths to close regular season action. Toledo has gone an uninspiring 2-3 SU and abysmal 0-5 ATS throughout their previous 5 games played. Ohio started their MAC schedule with a loss at Kent State. Since that time, they’ve gone 7-0 SU&ATS in their last 8 and with a substantial average victory margin of 17.4 points per game. Furthermore, over their previous 3 games, Ohio has averaged 35.7 points scored per contest while also owning an average time of possession of 38:06 per game. Which simply means, the Bobcats defense will be fresh and hard to score against considering how their offense has dominated time of possession.

Give me Ohio plus the points as my 10* MAC Game of the Year.

North Texas @ UTSA 7:30 PM ET

Game# 303-304

Play On: UTSA -8.5 (5*)

UTSA started the season 1-2 with losses coming to Houston by 2 and at Texas 41-20. Since that time, they’ve won 9 straight including going 8-0 in Conference USA action. UTSA defeated North Texas 31-27 at home earlier this season but failed to cover as a 10.0-point favorite. However, looking inside the numbers they outgained North Texas (7-5) in that contest by a wide margin of 496-347 and on most occasions that would be good enough for at double-digit win at the very least. The Mean Green have also lost on the road 3 other times by 31 at UNLV, by 20 at UAB, and by 10 at Memphis. On those occasions they allowed an average of 47.7 points and 471.7 yards per game. North Texas has allowed 496 yards or more in 5 of 12 games this season. That’s hardly championship material defensive play. They will be tasked with stopping a UTSA offense that’s averaged 38.4 points and 480.5 yards per game in Conference USA action.

Give me UTSA minus the points.

Oregon @ Oregon State 3:30 PM ET

Game# 125-126

Play On: Oregon State +3.0 (5*)

You may be surprised to know that since the start of last season, Oregon State is 10-1 SU and 11-0 ATS at home versus FBS teams. The Beavers have won 5 of their last 6 overall with their only loss coming by 3 at Washington (9-2). Furthermore, each of the Beavers previous 4 wins have come by 14-points or greater, and their defense has allowed 10 points or fewer and 290 yards or less during 3 of its last 4 contests. This isn’t so much about why to fade Oregon and more aligned with my betting value concepts.

Give me Oregon State plus the points.

Louisville @ Kentucky 3:00 PM ET

Game# 159-160

Play On: Louisville +3.0 (5*)

College Football away teams (Louisville) with a winning record, and they’re coming off a conference SU win by 30 points or fewer, versus an opponent (Kentucky) with a win percentage of .510 to .600 who’s coming off a SU loss in which they covered as an underdog, resulted in those away teams going 24-10 SU (70.6%) and 28-6 ATS (82.4%) since 1992.

Give me Louisville plus the small number.

Akron @ Northern Illinois 1:30 PM ET

Game# 183-184

Play On: Northern Illinois -10.0 (5*)

College Football home favorites of 6.5 to 14.0 (Northern Illinois) that are coming off a home SU&ATS loss in which they failed to cover by 35.0 points or less, versus teams like Akron who have a win percentage of .250 to .400 and coming off a loss by 3 points or more, resulted in those home favorites going 18-2 ATS (90%) since 1986. The home favorites won all 20 of those games straight up and by an average of 19.7 points per contest.

Give me Northern Illinois minus the points.

Coastal Carolina @ James Madison 12:00 PM ET

Game# 175-176

Play On: James Madison -14.0 (5*)

I’m aware of the fact that Coastal Carolina star quarterback was lost to a season ending injury. However, this is still a Coastal Carolina team that’s ranked #23 in the latest College Football Playoff Rankings with an outstanding 9-1 record. Yet, here they are as a 2-touchdown underdog versus an unranked conference opponent with a 7-3 record. Coastal is the sucker play of the week.

Give me James Madison minus the points.