Purdue vs. Connecticut 9:20 PM ET

Game# 675-676

Play On: Under 145.5

UConn has seen all 5 of their NCAA Tournament games go under the total with a combined average of 139.4 points scored per game. They were terrific defensively during those contests allowing a mere 57.2 points per contests and holding their opponents to 34.7% shooting. The Huskies also allowed just 14 free throw attempts per game during those 5 wins.

Purdue has played 4-1 to the under in the NCAA Tournament and with a combined average of 140.0 points scored per game. The Boilermakers held those 5 opponents to just 60.2 points per game, 39.4% shooting, and permitted them to get to the free throw line an average of only 10 times per game.

Neither one of these teams prefers a fast tempo game. UConn ranks 328th out of 362 Division 1 teams with regards to offensive tempo while Purdue is 211th in that same category. This will be the 4th time since the 2015 NCAA Tournament when two #1 seeds will square off against one another in the championship game. The previous 3 all went under the total and with a combined average of 141.0 points scored per game. Give me this game to go under the total.

 NC State vs. Purdue 6:09 PM ET

Game# 673-674

Play On: Purdue -9.0

The Cinderella NC State Wolfpack have been a nice story. They were just 17-14 during regular season action. However, once the postseason began, they went 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS which enabled them to reach this point. That includes 7-0 SU&ATS as an underdog. Yet, they find themselves as a 9.0-point underdog in this Final 4 matchup versus #1 seed Purdue. Here’s the caveat, since the 2017 NCAA Tournament, any #1 seed that was a favorite of between 7.0 to 14.0 in a Regional Final, National Semifinal, or Championship game have gone 5-0 SU&ATS with a substantial average victory margin of 18.8 points per contest. Although taking the red-hot sizable underdog is seemingly a very alluring option, recent history has shown that by doing so it’s been a losing proposition. Furthermore, from an analytical standpoint, Purdue has sizable advantages in rebounding, 3-point shooting percentage, and assist to field goal made percentage. Give me Purdue minus points.

NC State vs. Duke 5:05 PM ET

Game# 657-658

Play On: NC State +7.5

Duke is coming off a physically and emotionally draining 54-51 win over #1 seed Houston on Friday night. I know it’s the NCAA Tournament and the sense of urgency rises to a whole other level. However, I find it hard to believe that the physical and emotional toll that Duke needed to pull off their upset over Houston has at the very least a small carryover into Sunday’s Regional Final. Besides the fact they’re playing a red-hot NC State team that’s gone 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS this postseason and includes 6-0 SU&ATS as an underdog. Give me NC State plus points.

Tennessee vs. Purdue 2:20 PM ET

Game# 655-656

Play On: Under 148.5

These teams met in the Maui Invitational earlier this season and Purdue walked away with a 71-67 win. That contest went over the total despite Purdue shooting 35% and Tennessee 33% from the floor. However, there was a unordinary 78 free throw attempts combined in that contests which resulted in 50 points scored. It’s highly improbable we will see anywhere near that volume in this contest.

Tennessee is ranked 3rd nationally in defensive efficiency and Purdue is 7th. Tennessee is coming off an 82-75 win over Creighton on Friday. The Volunteers have played 12-3 to the under in away or neutral site games since the start of last season after scoring 80 points or more in their previous contest. Those 15 contests averaged only a combined 132.1 points scored per game. Purdue has committed 10 turnovers or fewer in each of their 3 NCAA Tournament games. Since the start of last season, the Boilermakers have played 7-0 to the under after committing 11 turnovers or fewer in each of their previous 3 games and there was only a combined average of 131.7 points scored per contest. Purdue has allowed 12.0 free throw attempts per game thus far in the NCAA Tournament and Tennessee 14.7 per contest. Tennessee has shot less than 40% in 5 of their last 7 games. Give me this game to go under the total.

Clemson vs. Alabama 8:49 PM ET

Game# 653-654

Play On: Clemson +3.5

I’ve mentioned numerous times on camera and in text about not overlooking free throws as part of your process when handicapping a game. Alabama is #319 nationally in free throw attempts allowed because of their aggressive defensive nature in an attempt to speed up the pace of games to their liking. Conversely, Clemson is #9 nationally in free throw percentage while making a terrific 78.7% of their attempts this season. Alabama has allowed 27.3 free throw attempts per contest throughout their first 3 NCAA Tournament games.

Alabama is coming off an 89-87 win over #1 seed North Carolina in the Sweet 16. However, since the start of last season, the Crimson Tide has gone a dismal 0-5 SU when coming off a win by 6 points or fewer in an away or neutral site game and lost by 15.2 points per contest. On the other side of the ledger, Clemson has gone 5-0 SU this season in an away or neutral side game when facing opponents like Alabama who average 62 or more field goal attempts per game and with a sizable average victory margin of 19.4 points per outing. Clemson has also gone 7-0 SU this season when in non-conference games when facing teams that made the 2024 NCAA Tournament. Clemson has been outstanding defensively in their first 3 NCAA Tournament game while holding opponents to a mere 34.3% shooting.

Lastly, Alabama is a team that shoots a high volume of 3-point shots. Specifically speaking, the Crimson Tide has seen 46.3% of their field goal attempts this season come from 3-point territory. However, Clemson has held their 3 NCAA Tournament opponents to 14-75 (18.3%) from beyond the 3-point line. Give me Clemson plus points.

Illinois vs. Iowa State 10:10 PM ET

Game# 631-632

Play On: Illinois +1.5

Illinois is #1 nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency and Iowa State is #1 defensively. So, something must be given. The overused cliche is defense wins championships and there’s data to back up that statement. However, this is an exception to the rule in my mind. The Cyclones are just 69% from the free throw line and that’s a concern when you get this far in the NCAA Tournament and are involved in what is seemingly an even matchup such as this one. Additionally, as good as Iowa State is defensively, they allow opponents to get to the free throw line frequently and rank #230 nationally in the category. Illinois is a solid free throw shooting team at 74.2% and is in the top 20% of college basketball teams when it comes to free throw attempts. Iowa State is one of the best teams in the country when it relates to forcing turnovers. Nevertheless, Illinois has committed turnovers on just 15% of their offensive possessions this season which is very good.

I very seldom refer to players when giving my handicapping analysis. However, Illinois guard Terrance Shannon will be unequivocally the best player on the floor tonight. He’s not only a deadly 3-point shooter but can beat defenders off the dribble and gets fouled quite frequently when doing so. Since the start of the Big Ten Tournament, Shannon is averaging 31.6 points per game, made 41.7% of his 3-point shot attempts, and has a excellent 87.9% conversion rate on free throws. Keep in mind, this is the same Terrance Shannon Jr. that was a key contributor as a freshman on a Texas Tech team that lost the 2020 national championship team in overtime. Give me Illinois.

Grand Canyon vs. Alabama 7:10 PM ET

Game# 839-840

Play On: Grand Canyon +6.0

If you watched Grand Canyon (30-4) upset nationally ranked St. Mary’s on Friday in Spokane, Washington then you know the Antelopes had overwhelming supports from their fanbase inside the building. That won’t change on Sunday and will serve as a huge emotional lift for the underdog. Grand Canyon was 28-36 (77.8%) from the free throw line in that win. Grand Canyon is #3 nationally in getting to the free throw line and has made 75.4% of those attempts. Conversely, Alabama is #320 nationally in free throw attempts allowed with much attributed to their aggressive defensive style. Grand Canyon’s interior defense was sensational versus St. Mary’s evidenced by 9 blocked shots. Alabama is #347 in the country in getting their shot attempts blocked. Another advantage Grand Canyon will have in on the offensive glass where they rank #32 nationally. On the other hand, Alabama is #236 in defensive rebounding. Give me Grand Canyon plus points.

Duquesne vs. Illinois 8:40 PM ET

Game# 797-798

Play On: Illinois -9.5

Duquesne is coming off a huge upset win as a 9.5-point underdog on Thursday versus #6 seed BYU of the vaunted Big 12 Conference. The #11 seed Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament champion is now 16-3 in their last 19 and that includes a current 9-game win streak. However, Illinois presents a whole different challenge than BYU. The Illini are #2 nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency and are a very good offensive rebounding team. If Duquesne has a weakness defensively it’s their rebounding. Duquesne ranks #222 nationally in defensive rebounding while Illinois is #16 on the offensive glass. Illinois will also have the best player on the court in this matchup Terrance Shannon Jr. who is a huge difference maker. During his 3 games in the Big 10 Tournament and in the NCAA Round of 64 versus Morehead State during an 85-69 win, Shannon has averaged 30.5 points per contest. Lastly, Illinois has gone a perfect 6-0 SU&ATS in their last 6 following a win by 15 or more and as a favorite of 5.0 or greater.  The average margin of victory in those 6 wins and covers came by a substantial average of 28.3 points per game. Give me Illinois minus points.

Virginia Tech @ Ohio State 7:00 PM ET

Game# 805-806

Play On: Ohio State -3.5

Virginia Tech has gone an abysmal 2-9 SU&ATS in true road games this season, and that includes 1-8 SU&ATS as an underdog. The Hokies have played terrible defense down the season’s final stretch while allowing opponents to shoot 50% or better in 7 of their last 10 games. Conversely, during their previous 5 contests, Ohio State has averaged 81.8 points scored per game, shot 49.5% from the field and made an excellent 43.0% of their 3-point shot attempts. For whatever reason the Buckeyes have been playing great basketball since their head coach was fired while going 6-1 SU&ATS during those contests. The Buckeyes are also 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 at home while outscoring their opponents by 9.0 points per game. Give me Ohio State minus points.

New Mexico vs. San Diego State 6:00 PM ET

Game# 623-624

Play On: New Mexico +2.5

As we’ve witnessed throughout this year’s conference tournament action, teams on the bubble for the NCAA Tournament has succeeded win either winning or covering as an underdog more times than not. Such has been the case for New Mexico. The Lobos have played with a high degree of urgency and desperation during their 3 wins in the MWC Tournament. They’ve turned in superb performances on each occasion and surprisingly have been extremely good defensively, which hasn’t been their forte this season. The Lobos allowed 61.0 points per game while holding Air Force, Boise State, and Colorado State to just 34.0% shooting. Despite of that, Joe Lunardi has New Mexico as the last team in with Missouri Valley Conference regular season champ Indiana State and Virginia lurking behind. So, I fully expect their desperation and urgency to be at a high level in the championship game and not leave it up to the NCAA Tournament committee whether or not they’ll be dancing next week. Furthermore, the Lobos are 6-0 SU&ATS this season on a neutral court with an average victory margin of 18.3 points per game.

San Diego State needed overtime in the quarterfinal round to knock off UNLV and then won decisively over #1 seed Utah State by 16. However, the Aztecs are 0-4 SU&ATS in their last 4 immediately following 2 consecutive wins and were outscored by 7.7 points per game. San Diego State is projected to be a #5 seed in the NCAA Tournament, so they have no uncertainty in that regard. Give me New Mexico plus points.

Ohio State vs. Illinois 6:30 PM ET

Game# 811-812

Play On: Illinois -5.0

Yes, Ohio State has responded well since the firing of their head coach Chris Holtman. The Buckeyes are 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5. However, just 1 of those 5 teams had a winning record in league play and that was Nebraska at 12-8. The other 4 teams had a combined record of 30-50 in Nig 10 regular season action.

I truly believe that Illinois is a legitimate contender to reach the Final Four. They finished 14-6 in the Big 10 and was second only to #3 ranked Purdue (28-3). Illinois easily won their only regular season games against Ohio State this season 87-75 and easily covered as a 3.0-point road favorite. Give me Illinois for a top-rated wager.

Utah @ Oregon 7:00 PM ET

Game# 699-700

Play On: Over 151.0

This has all the earmarks of a high scoring affair. Utah has played 3-0 to the over in their last 3 away with a combined 156.7 points scored per game. During their last 3 games overall, Utah averaged a lofty 87.7 points scored per contest and shooting 50.5% from the floor. They also played at a very fast tempo during those 3 contests while averaging 65 field goal attempts per game. Utah defeated Oregon at home earlier this season 80-77 in a game that sailed over the total of 149.5.

Oregon has scored 75 points or more and shot 49% or better in 4 of their last 5 games. The Ducks have played 4-0 to the over in their last 4 when the total was 151.0 or greater and an average of 167.5 points were scored per game. Oregon has played 7-1 to the over in their last 8 this season when facing an opponent like Utah who averages 77.0 or more points per game with a combined 160.9 points scored a game. Give me this game to go over the total.

California @ Stanford 11:00 PM ET

Game# 769-770

Play On: Over 154.5

Stanford has played 13-2 to the over at home this season with a combined 160.1 points being scored per game. California is coming off an 88-59 loss at Utah which stayed under the total of 154.5. However, the Bears have played 3-0 to the over in their last 3 following an under during their previous contest with a combined average of 158.3 points scored per outing. Stanford is #2 in PAC-12 Conference play while making 38.9% of their 3-point shot attempts. On a negative note, the Cardinal have lost 6 in a row and allowed 81.8 points per game while doing so. Conversely, California has allowed 80 points or more in each of their previous 4 conference away games. Stanford is #3 and California #4 when it comes to offensive tempo during conference action. Give me this game to go over the total.

Gonzaga @ St. Mary’s 10:00 PM ET

Game# 801-802

Play On: Over 141.0

St. Mary’s has scored 70 points or more in their last 6 abd 12 of their previous 13 games. The Gaels have played 5-0 to the over in their last 5 at home with a combined average of 148.4 points scored per game. During their last 5 outings, St. Mary’s has scored 84.0 points per game while shooting a sizzling hot 53.0% and they made an exceptional 45.0% of their 3-point shot attempts.

Gonzaga has scored 86 points or more in each of their previous 7 contests. During their previous 5 contests, Gonzaga has scored 91.6 points per game, shot 58.6% from the field, and made an excellent 41.6% of their 3-point shots. Gonzaga is #4 nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency and #1 during conference play. Give me this game to go over the total for a Top Play wager.

Kentucky @ Mississippi State 7:00 PM ET

Game# 621-622

Play On: Mississippi State -3.5

I’m of the opinion they’re giving us the winner in this matchup with unranked Mississippi State being a favorite over 6th ranked Kentucky. The sportsbooks are begging you to take the ranked road underdog in this spot. The Bulldogs will be playing with revenge stemming from a 90-77 loss at Kentucky earlier this season. That was a contest in which Kentucky was awarded 17 more free throw attempts than Mississippi State and the Wildcats outscored the Bulldogs by 17 points from the charity stripe. That type of free throw shooting disparity is unlikely to occur again. Kentucky has gone just 2-4 SU in their last 6 conference away games. Conversely, Mississippi State enter this contest on a 5-game win streak and that includes going 4-0 ATS if they were favorite by 9.5 or less with an average victory margin of 17.3 points per game.  Give me Mississippi State minus points.

Minnesota @ Nebraska 6:30 PM ET

Game# 857-858

Play On: Nebraska -6.5

I know Minnesota has been playing very well in recent weeks. However, they’re still just 2-5 SU on the road.  I also can’t ignore the fact that Nebraska is a perfect 8-0 SU&ATS during conference home game this season. The Cornhuskers will also be out to revenge a 76-65 loss at Minnesota earlier this season while outscoring their opponents by an average of 13.2 points per game. Give me Nebraska minus points.

George Mason @ Loyola-Chicago 4:30 PM ET

Game# 701-702

Play On: Loyola-Chicago -3.0

George Mason is coming off their first ever win in program history over a Top 25 opponents when they knocked off #16 Daton 74-70 the last time out. This has all the potential for a letdown spot for George Mason given the emotional high carried away from and during that win. It’s only human nature that George Mason won’t come close to the intensity level and mental sharpness it had during that upset win. Additionally, George Mason is 1-4 in their last 5 conference away games. Although Dayton and Richmond have made plenty of headlines this season in the Atlantic 10 Conference, Loyola-Chicago is a sneaky good team. Loyola enters Saturday’s contest having won 6 in a row, 9 of their last 10, and 13 of their previous 15 contests. Furthermore, tjhey already won at George Mason 85-79 earlier this season. Give me Loyola-Chicago minus points for a Top Play wager.

Florida @ Alabama 7:00 PM ET

Game# 679-680

Play On: Alabama -9.0

Florida has gone 7-1 in their last 8 games which included wins over #14 Auburn and #17 Kentucky. Yet, they find themselves as a heavy underdog in this contest and for good reason in my opinion. Alabama is 13-1 SU &12-2 ATS at home this season and outscored their opponents by an enormous average of 26.6 points per game. Furthermore, they’ve gone 6-0 SU&ATS in conference home games this season with a substantial average victory margin of 21.1 points per game. Alabama is #1 in SEC play when it comes to adjusted offensive efficiency. Conversely, Florida has allowed 80.2 points per game in SEC action this season. Additionally, Alabama is a much better defensive team than they’re given credit for and especially when considering the torrid offensive pace they play at. Give me Alabama minus points.

Maryland @ Wisconsin 9:00 PM ET

Game# 635-636

Play On: Wisconsin -7.0

Maryland has gone 1-4 SY&ATS in their last 5 which includes 0-3 ATS as an underdog. The Terrapins are a very good defensive team but can’t put the ball in the ocean offensively. During conference action, Marland has shot 39.8% from the field and made a poor 28.3% of their 3-point shot attempts.

This can be perceived to be a heavy number to cover for a Wisconsin team which is 1-5 SU & 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games. However, the Badgers are 11-2 SU at home this season with their lone defeats coming against #5 Tennessee and #3 Purdue.  Additionally, Wisconsin is 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS in conference home games and that includes 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS as a favorite. Give me Wisconsin minus points.

Youngstown State @ Clevland State 3:00 PM ET

Game# 669-670

Play On: Over 151.5

Since the start of last season, these Horizon League in-state rivals have played 3 times, and each went over the total with an average combined score of 159.3 points scored per game. That includes a 94-69 Youngstown State win earlier this season in a game that soared over the total of 146.0. YSU has played 4-0-1 to the over in their last 5 contests with a combined 167.6 points scored per game. The Penguins have allowed 81.0 points per game in their last 5 and opponents made 39.0% of their 3-point shots. Cleveland State has gone 11-2 at home this and averaged 80.2 points scored per game. Cleveland State allows the most free throw attempts of any Horizon League team during conference play. That will help us significantly since YSU is #1 in the Horizon League from the free throw line while connecting on an excellent 79.1% of their attempts.

Florida @ Kentucky 8:00 PM ET

Game# 709-710

Play On: Kentucky -5.5

Florida is an uninspiring 1-3 SU&ATS in true road games this season and allowed 84.3 points per contest while doing so. The Gators rank next to last in adjusted defensive efficiency during SEC play. That’s not good news when considering that Kentucky is #9 nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency and #4 in 3-point shooting while converting on an impressive 40.2% of their long-distance attempts. Kentucky doesn’t beat themselves which is proven by them turning the ball over on just 13.1% of their offensive possessions. The Wildcats are 10-1 at home this season which includes winning their last 4 by 15.3 points per contest and they averaged 95.3 points scored per game. Give me Kentucky minus points.

Ohio State @ Northwestern 3:30 PM ET

Game# 811-812

Play On: Northwestern -2.5

Ohio State is 0-4 this season in true away games and all those games came against fellow Big 10 Conference teams. After starting the season 11-2, Ohio State has also dropped 4 of the last 5 overall which includes losses to 3 unranked teams. Northwestern has gone 10-1 at home this season which includes quality wins over #2 Purdue (18-2) and #10 Illinois (14-5). Furthermore, Northwestern is #2 in Big 10 play in 3-point accuracy while making 41.4% of those long-distance shot. Conversely, Ohio State ranks 13th during Big 10 conference play in 3-point defense while allowing opponents to convert an alarmingly high 40.6% of their attempts. Give me Northwestern minus points for a Top Play wager.

St. Joseph’s @ St. Bonaventure 8:30 PM ET

Game# 887-888

Play On: Over 144.0

St. Bonaventure has gone over the total in each of their last 5 at home with a combined average of 153.2 points scored per game. The Bonnies have scored 89 points or more and shot 55% or better in 4 of those last 5 at home. St. Joe’s has gone over the total in all 6 of their true road games this season with a combined 163.0 points scored per game. Give me this game to go over the total.

Xavier @ Creighton 8:30 PM ET

Game# 645-646

Play On: Over 148.0

Xavier has played 4-0 to the over in their last 4 and there was a combined average of 161.0 points scored per game. The Musketeers have been playing a an extremely fast office pace over their last 7 contests which is evidenced by them having 63 or more field goal attempts on each occasion. Xavier has scored 74 points or more in 8 of their last 10 games. Creighton is averaging an impressive 87.8 points scored per game while shooting 51.2% and includes going 36% from 3-point range at home this season. Give me this game to go over the total.

Temple @ North Texas 6:00 PM ET

Game# 739-740

Play On: North Texas -11.0

Temple started the season 3-0 and has gone 5-8 since. Those struggles have occurred despite playing against a strength of schedule that ranks #217 according to KenPom. The Owls have also suffered bad losses at the hands of #235 Columbia, #262 Old Domion, #176 East Carolina, and #147 South Florida.  On the other hand, North Texas is 7-0 at home this season with an average victory margin of 20.0 points per game. The Mean Green is a very frustrating team to play against since they plat at one of the slowest offensive paces in the country and are an excellent defensive team as well. Give me North Texas minus points.

Connecticut @ Butler 6:30 PM ET

Game# 877-878

Play On: Butler +6.0

This will be just the 3rd true road game for UConn this season and they lost to Kansas by 4 and Seton Hall by 15 in the first 2. Butler is 10-4 but it’s worth noting that they’re 8-0 at home and considering their a sizable underdog in this spot that element can’t be ignored. Butler has also played the tougher schedule to this point compared to UConn which may not result in winning this game outright but certainly bodes well for them to be competitive throughout and stay inside the number. Give me Butler plus points.

Indiana @ Nebraska 9:00 PM ET

Game# 705-706

Play On: Nebraska -5.0

Nebraska is 11-2 and every good as their record indicates. The Cornhuskers have quality depth and are a very experienced team. Indiana is one of the youngest teams in the Big 10 Conference. It seems odd to see Nebraska as a favorite over Indiana in basketball. With that in mind, it most likely will produce a fair share of underdog bets just based on the perception of reach programs history on the hardwood. Give me Nebraska minus points.

San Diego State vs. Connecticut 9:20 PM ET

Game# 711-712

Play On: Under 132.5 (10*)

The only flaw that UConn has displayed defensively during their 5 NCAA Tournament games is allowing opponents to have an average of 19 free throw attempts per game. If you even want to label that as a flaw. However, San Diego State has been terrible from the free throw line during their 5 NCAA Tournament game while converting on just 63.4% of their free throw attempts. Otherwise, the Huskies have held all 5 of their opponents to 38.8% or worse while giving up a mere 59.2 points per contest. UConn has covered all 5 games in the big Dance. The Huskies have played 8-1 to the under this season when not playing at home and coming off covering each of their previous 3 games.

San Diego State is a 7.5-point underdog at the time of this writing. The Aztecs have played 8-0 to the under since 12/17/2021 and there were a combined 125.1 points scored per game. San Diego State is coming off a thrilling 72-71 buzzer beating win over FAU in a game that went over the total of 132.0. That snapped a string of 12 consecutive games going under the total for the Aztecs. As a matter of fact, they haven’t gone over the total in 2 straight games since January 10th. Furthermore, The Aztecs have played 5-0 to the under in their last 5 contests following an over in their previous outing and there was a combined average of 121.6 points scored per game. The Aztecs have also gone under in their last 5 after allowing 70 points or more during its previous contest and there was a combined 118.2 points scored per game.

According to Ken Pomeroy, San Diego State is #4 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency and UConn is #8. Additionally, UConn is #214 in adjust offensive temp and San Diego State is #270.

Give me this game to go under the total.

Miami vs. Connecticut 8:49 PM ET

Game# 703-704

Play On: Miami +5.5 (10*)

I really like this UConn team. Nevertheless, I believe this is a contest that will go down to the wire, and the Huskies will be hard pressed to cover a relatively high number with all considered. As a matter of fact, Miami has gone 9-1 ATS including 7-3 SU as an underdog this season. Additionally, if the Hurricanes were +3.5 or greater, they improved to 5-0 ATS and 4-1 SU for the season. Furthermore, their last 3 wins in the NCAA Tournament all came as an underdog versus #21 Indiana, #2 Houston, and #5 Texas. Those 3 teams finished with a cumulative record of 84-24 (.778). So, it’s not like the Canes had an easy path to reach the Final Four. On the other hand, UConn has yet to be challenged in their 4 NCAA Tournament wins with all of them coming by 15 points or more. Miami is a very difficult team to blow out with 6 of their 7 losses coming by 7 points or fewer, and 4 of those defeats were by narrow margins of 3 points or less.

Give me Miami plus the points.

San Diego State vs. Creighton 2:20 PM ET

Game# 657-658

Play On: San Diego State +2.5 (10*)

San Diego State is an elite defensive team with size, length, and athleticism. That will be the difference in the outcome of this game. During their 3 NCAA Tournament wins over Charleston, Furman, and Alabama, San Diego State allowed just 57.7 points per game while those 3 opponents shot a terrible 32.2% from the field. The Aztecs will also be playing with big time revenge stemming from a 3-point loss to Creighton in last year’s NCAA Tournament.

Creighton is coming off an 11-point win versus #15 seed Princeton and barely covered as a 10.0-point favorite despite shooting 58%. It will be a huge adjustment for them going from going up against the Ivy League champion to playing stingy defensive team like San Diego State. The Bluejays are averaging 9 three-point makes per game. However, San Diego State has gone 13-1 SU this season versus opponents who were averaging 8 or more 3-point shots made per game.

Give me San Diego State.

Farleigh-Dickinson vs. FAU 7:45 PM ET

Game# 843-844

Play On: FAU -15.0 (10*)

The oddsmakers are begging you to take the sentimental underdog and #16 seed Farleigh-Dickinson in this matchup. I believe we’ll see a similar type of result on Sunday that we saw on Saturday when San Diego State blew out Furman. San Diego State wasn’t going to take the underdog Paladins who upset Virginia in Round 1 lightly, and especially so with a Sweet 16 berth on the line. FAU finds itself in a similar position on Sunday versus a #16 seed who pulled off the massive upset over #1 seed Purdue in Round 1. The upstart FAU Owls is in no position to take any game for granted in the NCAA Tournament with being on the cusp of a first ever Sweet 16 appearance. Ken Pomeroy has FDU ranked #275 in the country, #353 in adjusted offensive efficiency, and #361 regarding strength of schedule.

Give me FAU minus the points.

Maryland vs. Alabama 9:40 PM ET

Game# 805-806

Play On: Alabama -8.5 (10*)

These teams met in the NCAA Tournament last season and Alabama walked away with a 96-77 win. I expect a similar type of result today. For starters, the game will be played in Birmingham which is about as close a home game for Alabama as you can possibly get, and I’m handicapping it as such. Alabama was a perfect 15-0 at home this season with an average victory margin of 24.5 points per game. Conversely, Maryland has gone 1-9 SU and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 on the road. Their only win came over Big 10 cellar dweller Minnesota.

Alabama has been locked in defensively over their previous 5 contests while holding their opponents to a combined 32.7% shooting from the field. On the other hand, Maryland has averaged just 64.6 points scored per game while shooting an uninspiring 42.5% throughout its previous 5 games.

Give me Alabama minus the points.

Northwestern vs. UCLA 8:40 PM ET

Game# 815-816

Play On: Northwestern +7.5 (10*)

I’m not going to poke holes in in the #7 UCLA Bruins (30-5) season resume because quite frankly there would be little to talk about. However, I do feel this will be a difficult number to cover. Northwestern possesses a veteran 3-guard veteran backcourt that’s very good and will be vital in us covering this contest. Furthermore, Northwestern has gone an extremely profitable 11-3 ATS this season as an underdog of 2.5 or greater and won 9 of those contests straight up. When tightening those numbers up even more, Northwestern improves to 7-1 ATS and 5-3 SU as an underdog of 2.5 or greater immediately following a SU win. The Wildcats are coming off Thursday NCAA Tournament 75-67 win over Boise State in a game they shot an impressive 49.1%. UCLA is #1 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. Nonetheless, Northwestern is pretty good as well with a #18 national ranking in that identical category.

Give me Northwestern plus the points.

Kent State vs. Indiana 9:55 PM ET

Game# 771-772

Play On: Kent State +4.5 (10*)

This line jumped right off the page at me. We have #21 Indiana as just a 4.0-point favorite versus unranked Kent State winners of the MAC Tournament. However, Kent State has proven it can play with the big boys this season. They lost at #2 Houston (31-3) by 5, #9 Gonzaga (28-5) by 7, and at CAA champion Charleston (31-3) by only 2. The Golden Flashes are 22-3 in their last 25 and includes a current 6-game win streak. Indiana went just 5-4 in their last 9 games. The Hoosiers did most of their damage at home this season where they went 15-2. Conversely, they were just 7-9 in away and neutral site games.

Give me Kent State plus the points.

Charleston vs. San Diego State 3:10 PM ET

Game# 737-738

Play On: San Diego State -5.0 (10*)

Charleston seems to be a popular pick when it comes to upsets on March Madness brackets being filled out by the public. After all, they’re 31-3 which includes 16-2 in conference play. However, as opposed to San Diego State, Charleston ranks #304 national in terms of strength of schedule and #232 with regards to its non-conference slate.

San Diego State (27-6) is the Mountain West Conference Tournament regular season and conference tournament champion. That’s nothing to make light off since the conference will be represented by 4 teams in the NCAA Tournament. The Aztecs have traditionally been an excellent defensive team. This season is no different since they rank #10 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Aztecs also played the 16th toughest non-conference schedule in the country. The Aztecs will also have a decided advantage when it comes to experience which should always be factored in when handicapping NCAA Tournament games.

Give me San Diego State minus the points.

Tulane vs. Wichita State 9:30 PM ET

Game# 827-828

Play On: Over 151.0 (10*)

Wichita State has seen 15 of their last 16 games go over the total. The Shockers have shot 50% or better in their last 4 and 7 of its previous 9 games.

Tulane has played 14-4-1 to the over in their last 19 games. The Green Wave have scored 78 points or more in each of their last 5 and 7 of its previous 8 games.

These teams played twice during regular season action with each contest going over the total and there were 185 and 163 combined points scored in those contests.

Give me this game to go over the total.

UNLV @ Nevada 5:00 PM ET

Game# 667-668

Play On: Nevada -8.5 (5*)

UNLV is coming off a terrible 25-point home blowout loss to Utah State in their previous game. The Rebels have now lost 4 of its last 5 while shooting a terrible 38.7% throughout that stretch.

Nevada is coming off an 80-71 upset loss at Wyoming. However, the Wolfpack is 7-0 SU and 5-2 ATS following a loss this season. Nevada is also 14-0 at home and that includes 8-0 SU and 6-1-1 ATS when facing conference opponents. The Wolfpack will be also out to atone for a 68-62 loss at UNLV earlier this season.

Give me Nevada minus the points.

Virginia @ North Carolina 6:00 PM ET

Game# 713-714

Play On: North Carolina -3.0 (10*)

This line jumped right off the page at me. We have an unranked North Carolina team which has lost 5 of its last 7 games as a favorite over the #6 ranked team in the country. They’re begging you to take the underdog in this spot. I’m not falling for the bait. 

Give me North Carolina minus the points.

Michigan State @ Michigan 8:00 PM ET

Game# 777-778

Play On: Michigan -130 (10*)

Michigan State has gone 1-3 SU&ATS in their last 4 conference away games. Their lone win that sequence came over a struggling Ohio State team that has lost its last 7 and 12 of their previous 13 games.

Michigan lost their last 2 games by 1 to Indiana and by versus Wisconsin. However, the Wolverines haven’t lost 3 consecutive games in a row all season. Michigan is a perfect 4-0 SU&ATS this season following losses in each of its previous 2 contests and won by an average of 18.5 points per game and all were versus Big 10 opponents. Michigan is 6-2 SU in conference home games this season with their only losses coming by 5 versus #3 Purdue (23-4) and against #14 Indiana (18-8) by 1. Today’s opponent Michigan State is unranked. The Wolverines are 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS this season in conference home games when facing unranked opponents and won by an average of 14.2 points per game.

Give me Michigan on the money line.

UCF @ Memphis 8:00 PM ET

Game# 799-800

Play On: Over 149.0 (10*)

Earlier this season there would be no possible chance I would bet a UCF game to go over a number that neared or surpassed 150.0. Nevertheless, much has changed between then and now. These teams played a 2-overtime thriller earlier this season which saw UCF pull out a 107-104 win. However, that game was 78-78 at the end of regulation time which still would have sailed over that total of just 135.5.

During their previous 5 contests, Memphis has averaged 90.6 points scored per game, shot 50.2% from the field, and made 38.7% of its 3-point shot attempts. Conversely, UCF has averaged 74.6 points scored per game, made 40.9% of its 3-point shot attempts, and made an average of 11 three-point shots per outing throughout their previous 5 contests. Memphis averages 24 free throw attempts and allows 24 free throw attempts per game this season. UCF is #1 in American Athletic Conference action in free throw percentage at 80.7%. Memphis is pretty good themselves in converting on 75.3% of its free throws in conference games.

UCF has played 8-0 to the over this season immediately following playing in 3 straight conference games and there was a combined 156.9 points scored per contest. The Golden Knights have also played 7-0-2 to the over in their last 9 games overall. Memphis has gone over in their last 3 and there was a combined 174.0 points scored per game.

Give me this game to go over the total.

Texas @ Kansas State 4:00 ET

Game# 666-700

Play On: Over 149.0 (10*)

These teams met earlier this season in Austin and Kansas State walked away with a 116-103 win, and no there wasn’t any overtime. There were a combined 59 free throw attempts in that contest and the team went and made 53 of them for an excellent 89.8% conversion rate. Not to mention, combining to go 24-51 (47.1%) on 3-point shot attempts. I am not predicting those gaudy numbers will repeat themselves in this one, but I do think will see a similar volume of attempts in each category. By the way, these teams have now gone over the total in each of the last 6 times they’ve met.

Texas has played 11-3 to the over in their last 14 games. The Longhorns are coming off a 76-71 home win versus Baylor and that contest barely went under the total of 148.5. Texas has played 6-0 to the over off a conference win this season and there was a combined 162.9 points scored per game. Texas has also played over in their last 4 immediately after an under and there was a combined 162.3 points scored per game.

Kansas State has played 5-0 to the over this season whenever there was a total of 143.5 or greater and it produced a combined 165.4 points scored per game. Throughout their previous 5 games, the Wildcats averaged an enormous 28 free throw attempts per game and made an outstanding 76.1% of those tries. That’s good news considering Texas allows 24 free throw attempts per game in conference play. Kansas State has also made a very good 38% of their 3-point shot attempts in conference play.

Give me this game to go over the total.

Indiana @ Maryland 9:00 PM ET

Game# 643-644

Play On: Maryland -2.5 (10*)

Indiana is coming off a home blowout win over Ohio State. However, it must be noted that Indiana is currently a money line underdog of +130 in this matchup. Since the start of the 2020-2021 season, Indiana is 0-10 SU as a money line road underdog of +200 or less and lost by an average of 11.0 points per game. They were in that situation twice this season and lost at Penn State by 19 and at Kansas by 22.

Maryland is 11-1 SU at home this season with their lone defeat coming against an extremely good UCLA team. Nevertheless, the Terrapins are a perfect 5-0 SU&ATS in conference home games this season with an average victory margin of 11.2 points per game.

Give me Maryland minus the points.

Iowa State @ Kansas 4:00 PM ET

Game# 709-710

Play On: Iowa State +8.5 (10*)

There’s no denying how good the defending national champion Kansas Jayhawks are. The Jayhawks are 15-1 with their lone defeat coming versus a Tennessee who is a serious national title contender. However, since the 2020-2021 season, Kansas is 1-8 ATS in January home games with just a +1.3 point per game differential. Kansas is 2-0 at home in conference thus far but those victories over Oklahoma and Oklahoma State came by just a combined 6 points.

Iowa State can be extremely frustrating to play against. They play at a snail’s pace offensively, are #6 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, and #1 in forcing turnovers. This is also a very experienced Cyclones team that won’t be rattled by a hostile environment. Iowa State is coming off an 84-50 home blowout win over a solid Texas Tech team. That win improved their season record to 13-2 and includes 4-0 during Big 12 Conference games.

Give me Iowa State plus the points.

Duke @ Xavier 3:30 PM ET

Game# 911-912

Play On: Duke -4.5 (10*)

Xavier enters this Phil Knight Invitational Semifinal having in Portland. Oregon having scored an average of 85.8 points scored per game this season. The Musketeers have also allowed 81 points or more in each of their previous 2 games. College Basketball neutral site favorites versus an opponent that averages 84.0 or more points scored per game who also allowed 80 points or greater in each of their last 2 games, resulted in those favorites going 39-13 ATS (75%) since 1997. The average line for those favorites during those 37 contests was 5.8 and they outscored their opponents by an average of 10.2 points per game.

Give me Duke minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Kent State @ Charleston 6:00 PM ET

Game# 693-694

Play On: Charleston -2.0 (10*)

Kent State is 5-0 but they have played a substantially weaker schedule than 4-1 Charleston has faced. Charleston’s lone loss came at #1 North Carolina by 16 and they led that contest by 8 points at the half. Charleston has recorded quality wins over Davidson, Colorado State, and Virginia Tech. They’re battle tested and are a perfect 5-0 at home while covering 4 of those contests.

Give me Charleston minus the small number.

North Carolina vs. Duke 8:49 PM ET

Game# 703-704

Play On: Over 151.0 (10*)

Duke has played 9-1 to the over in their last 10 games and that includes 5-0 (161.2 PPG) if the number was 146.0 or greater. The Blue Devils scored 78 or more points in 9 of their last 10 while shooting 47.8% or better in all 10.

North Carolina has scored 82.5 points per game in this NCAA Tournament. They also have averaged a robust 64.5 field goal attempts per game which equates to a lightning-fast pace. The Tar Heels will be facing a Duke team which has scored their opponents by an average of 12.7 points per game this season. North Carolina has played 7-0 to the over this season versus teams that outscored their opponents by 12.0 or more points per contest and there was an enormously combined 170.0 points scored per game.

Since the start of the 2019 season, these bitter ACC rivals have met 6 times and each of those contests have gone over the total. Ironically enough, the average total in those contests was 151.4 which is nearly identical to today’s number, and there was a combined 171.7 points scored per game. Duke is currently #1 in the country in terms of offensive efficiency and North Carolina is #18. Give me this game to go over the total for a Top Play wager.

St. Bonaventure vs. Xavier 7:00 PM ET

Game# 647-648

Play On: St. Bonaventure -120 (10*)

Xavier is atoning for a underachieving regular season with this NIT run to Madison Square Garden. However, all 3 of their NIT wins were on their home floor and 2 of them came by only a combined 6 points. Xavier is just 5-8 SU this season in road and neutral site games. The Musketeers entered the NIT having gone 2-8 in their previous 10 games.

St. Bonaventure has literally traveled a more difficult path. The Bonnies 3 NIT victories all came on the road versus Colorado, Oklahoma, and Virginia. Furthermore, they were an underdog in each of those contests. The Bonnies are extremely disciplined. They have committed only 8.8 turnover per game throughout its last 5 contests and allowed their opponents just 9 free throw attempts per contest. This is a battle tested Bonnies team that earlier this season posted neutral site wins over Clemson, Boise State, and Marquette. The latter 2 teams made it to the NCAA Tournament. Give me St. Bonaventure for a Top Play money line wager.

Arkansas vs. Duke 8:49 PM ET

Game# 641-642

Play On: Duke -3.5 (10*)

Arkansas is coming off a huge emotional upset win over the #1 ranked team in the country Gonzaga. Now with just 1-day of rest, they have to face another blue-blood in Duke with a legendary head coach is retiring at their season’s end. Granted that the Razorbacks win over Gonzaga was an impressive one. Nevertheless, let’s not forget that they had narrow 4 and 5-point wins over #12 seed New Mexico State and #13 seed Vermont during the first 2 rounds.

Duke is a very well-balanced team. The Blue Devils are #2 nationally in offensive efficiency while averaging 121.0 points scored per 100 possessions. Duke is 11th nationally in defensive efficiency while allowing 90.4 points per their opponent’s 100 offensive possessions. Arkansas has been dominant defensively in their previous 2 games. However, Duke has averaged 82.2 points scored per game while shooting a scalding hot 54% from the field throughout its previous 9 contests. Comparatively, Arkansas has shot 39.4% from the field and made a dismal 25.7% of their 3-point shot attempts over their last 5 games. Arkansas also has scored 22.8% of their points from the free throw line this season which is 8th highest in the country. Conversely, Duke has allowed their opponents a mere 12 free throw attempts per game this season. Give me Duke minus the points for a Top Play wager.

Providence vs. Kansas 7:29 PM ET

Game# 635-636

Play On: Kansas -7.5 (10*)

I have been harsh on Kansas all season. However, this matchup versus Providence suits them well and I’m calling for a decisive Jayhawks win and cover. Throughout their last 6 games, Kansas has allowed just 63.5 points per contest and limited their opponents to a combined 37.5% shooting. Additionally, Kansas is 5-0 SU&ATS this season as a neutral court favorite of 10.0 or less and outscored those opponents by an average of 15.8 points per game. This is a well-balanced Kansas team that #6 nationally in offensive efficiency and #27 defensively.

Granted Providence shot 51.9% in their 79-51 blowout win over #12 seed Richmond in their previous game. However, it marked the first time since 1/23 that the Friars had shot 50% or better from the field. Furthermore, despite that good shooting game, Providence has made only 40.3% of their field goal attempts over its last 5 games. It also must be noted that providence faced a #13 and #12 seed in their 2 NCAA Tournament wins. They’ll be stepping up in class to take on the #2 seed Jayhawks (30-6). Give me Kansas minus the points for a Top Play wager.

Texas Tech vs. Duke 9:39 PM ET

Game# 629-630

Play On: Texas Tech -110 (10*)

We have the lower ranked and lower seeded team as a favorite in this contest. Public bettors have flocked to the window early to bet on Duke just as I expected. However, like I said on numerous occasions, my trust lies in the oddsmakers uncanny ability to set an accurate line 24/7 and 7 days a week over all else. The Red Raiders weren’t at their best in their 59-53 second round win over Notre Dame but still walked away with a win. Nevertheless, their calling card is on the defensive side of the floor. Notre Dame entered that 2nd round matchup having shot 50% or better in 5 consecutive games. Texas Tech forced the Fighting Irish into a horrible 32% shooting day. The Red Raiders have now held opponents to less than 40% shooting and 62 points or fewer in 5 of its last 6 games. Furthermore, Texas Tech is #1 nationally in defensive efficiency while allowing 84.4 points per opponent 100 offensive possessions. How good a rating is that? The next best team in terms of defensive deficiency that’s part of the ‘Sweet 16 field is Gonzaga at 89.7. Give me Texas Tech for a money line wager.

Washington State @ BYU 9:00 PM ET

Game# 619-620

Play On: BYU -135 (10*)

During their 2 NIT games with both played at home, BYU has scored 91.5 points per contest and shot a sizzling hot 53.7% from the field. AS a matter of fact, BYU has shot 50.8% or better in 6 of their last 9 games. Conversely, Washington State has shot 38.1% or worse in 10 of its previous 14 games. This is a battle tested BYU team that has played the 31st toughest non-conference schedule in the country. The Cougars are 14-2 at home this season with their lone defeats coming versus #1 Gonzaga and San Francisco who lost to #20 Murray State in overtime during a 1st round NCAA Tournament game. Give me BYU on the money line for a Top Play wager.

TCU vs. Arizona 9:40 PM ET

Game# 829-830

Play On: Arizona -9.5 (10*)

TCU is coming off an extremely impressive 69-42 win over Seton Hall on Friday. However, the Horned Frogs have gone just 1-5 SU&ATS during their last 6 following a win in its previous game. Additionally, there’s a sizable disparity in the opponent they’ll face today compared to a Seton Hall team that was average at best over the 2nd half of their season. TCU has scored less than 70 points in each of its last 5 and 9 of their previous 11 games. That’s problematic when it comes to this matchup when considering Arizona has scored 81 points or more during its last 7 and 11 of their previous 12 games. The Wildcats have also shot 49% or better during 11 of its previous 13 games. Arizona is far the better team in this game and will walk away with a decisive win and cover. Give me Arizona minus the points for a Top Play wager.

St. Mary’s vs. UCLA 7:10 PM ET

Game# 797-798

Play On: UCLA -2.5 (10*)

St. Mary’s looked terrific in their 82-53 rout of Indiana on Thursday. Conversely, UCLA closed the game on a 15-4 run in their narrow 57-53 win over Akron in a game they were a sizable 13.5-points favorite. As a result, we’ve seen a plethora of early bets and money being wagered on St. Mary’s. I’m predicting UCLA will bounce back with a huge performance on Saturday. This is an experienced UCLA team that advanced to the Final Four a season ago and that will pay dividends in this matchup. Give me UCLA minus the points for a Top Play wager.

Vermont vs. Arkansas 9:20 PM ET

Game# 721-722

Play On: Vermont +5.5 (10*)

This line jumped right off the screen at first glance. Here we have the #17 Arkansas Razorbacks from the powerful SEC 25-8 as just a 5.0-point favorite versus a team that won the America East Conference. However, this is a Vermont Catamounts team that has an outstanding 28-5 record and that includes 22-1 during its previous 23 games. The Catamounts also went 2-1 in non-conference play versus teams that are in the 2022 NCAA Tournament field. Their wins came versus the Ivy League champion Yale Bulldogs and the other against the Patriot League automatic qualifier the Colgate Raiders. Their loss came at #13 Providence by 10. The Catamounts defeated UMBC in the conference title game by a lopsided 82-43 score. Since the start of last season, Vermont has won 8 games by 30 points or more, and they followed the previous 7 by going 7-0 SU&ATS while winning by a substantial 24.6 points per contest. Give me Vermont plus the points for a Top Play wager.

Wyoming vs. Indiana 9:10 PM ET

Game# 665-666

Play On: Wyoming +4.5 (10*)

Indiana is certainly the bigger brand than Wyoming and plays in a better Conference. Which aligns itself with an enormous amount of early money being wagered on the Hoosiers. However, the Mountain West Conference was vastly underrated this season which is evidenced by their 4 NCAA Tournament berths and 2 of those teams (Boise State, Colorado State) being currently being ranked in the Top 25. It must be noted, Indiana has gone 2-8 SU in their last 10 games versus teams that are in the 2022 NCAA Tournament field.

Wyoming is coming off a loss against #23 Boise State in the Mountain West Conference Tournament. Nevertheless, the Cowboys have been resilient this season which is proven by their 6-1 SU record following a loss. They were also an extremely profitable 7-3 ATS as an underdog. Give me Wyoming plus the points for a Top Play wager.

Texas Tech vs. Kansas 6:00 PM ET

Game# 623-624

Play On: Texas Tech +2.5 (10*)

I may be in the minority when I say that Texas Tech is the overall better team in this matchup. I also like their chances of a deep NCAA Tournament run far better than that of the higher ranked Kansas Jayhawks. These teams split the 2 games during regular season action with the home side posting blowout victories on each occasion.

During their 2 Big 12 Tournament games versus Iowa State and Oklahoma the Texas Tech Red Riders have been dominant defensively. They held those opponents to only 48.0 points scored per contest and a mere 34.7% shooting. During their 2 regular season meetings versus Kansas, Texas Tech averaged 83.0 points scored per contest and shot an impressive 48.3%. Give me Texas Tech plus the points for a Top Play wager.

Miami vs. Duke 7:00 PM ET

Game# 863-864

Play On: Duke -8.5 (10*)

This is a Duke team which has shoot 48% or better in each of their last 6 games. Conversely, Miami has allowed its opponents to shoot 48% or better during 5 of its previous 6 contests. Duke will be playing with big time revenge stemming from a 76-74 home loss to Miami earlier this season in a game they closed as a 15.0-point favorite. The Blue Devils had a scare yesterday before pulling away late in a 9-point win over an undermanned Syracuse team that they blew out twice during regular season action. That’s not likely to occur again. Miami narrowly escaped with a 2-point overtime win over a hapless Boston College team in yesterday’s conference quarterfinals. Give me Duke minus the points for a Top Play wager.

Virginia Tech vs. Notre Dame 7:00 PM ET

Game# 725-726

Play On: Virginia Tech -125 (10*)

Virginia Tech’s NCAA Tournament chances continue to be on life support after yesterday’s thrill buzzer beating 3-point shot in a 1-point win over Clemson. I look for them to carry that momentum into today. The Hokies are now 10-2 in their last 12 games. Since the start of last season, Virginia Tech is 3-0 SU in their games versus Notre Dame. Virginia Tech is an excellent defensive team that has allowed only 61.7 points per game. Conversely, Notre Dame is 1-7 SU this season versus opponents who allow 64 points or less per game. The Fighting Irish are also 0-3 SU&ATS in lined neutral site games this season. Barring something unforeseen, Notre Dame is a lock to make “The Big Dance”. On the other hand, Virginia tech needs at least 1 more if not 2 more wins in this ACC Tournament to possibly get there. I’m going with the team that will surely exhibit more desperation and urgency in this matchup. Give me Virginia Tech.

St. Mary’s vs. Gonzaga 9:00 PM ET

Game# 623-624

Play On: Gonzaga -12.5 (10*)

It’s apparent by current betting patterns that the public is wagering on St. Mary’s plus the sizable number like it’s an absolute cinch. After all, these teams just met on 2/28 in the regular season finale for both teams and St. Mary’s walked away with a convincing 10-point win as a 10.5-point home underdog. Additionally, the Gaels held Gonzaga to a season low 57 points and 36.7% shooting. I’m here to tell you that’s not happening again. Gonzaga was caught in a flat spot, and the Bulldogs will bounce back with vengeance tonight. The oddsmakers were certainly not deterred by that previous result based on the opening number of 13.5. Gonzaga will show their upper echelon class tonight in a revenge situation. Give me Gonzaga minus the points for a Top Play wager.

Mississippi State @ Texas A&M 8:30 PM ET

Game# 679-680

Play On: Texas A&M -2.0 (10*)

Mississippi State has gone a dismal 1-8 SU in SEC road games this season with their only win coming versus a Missouri team which has a poor 4-13 conference record and is 10-20 overall. The Bulldogs are coming off a disheartening home overtime loss to #5 Auburn that for all intent and purposes eliminated them from a possible at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament. It’s hard to imagine the Bulldogs recovering emotionally from that loss just 3 days later. Furthermore, Mississippi State is 0-4 SU&ATS this season within the point-spread parameter of pick to +4.0.

Texas A&M starter the season 15-2 then proceeded to lose 8 straight games. Since that time, the Aggies have rebounded to win 4 of their last 5 and includes a present 3-0 SU&ATS run. As a matter of fact, Texas A&M is coming off a 10-point road win over #25 Alabama in a game they closed as a 16.0-point underdog. During their current 3-game winning run, the Aggies scored 84.7 points per contest and shot a blistering hot 55.8% from the field. Give me Texas A&M minus the small number for a Top Play wager.

Auburn @ Mississippi State 9:00 PM ET

Game# 711-712

Play On: Mississippi State +4.0 (10*)

Auburn has gone 2-3 SU and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 on the road. Their only 2 SU wins came against the 2 worst teams in the SEC in Missouri and Georgia. As a matter of fact, those 2 wins came by a combined 3 points and they were favorites of 14.0 and 14.5 in those contests. Conversely, Mississippi State has gone 7-1 SU in conference home games this season. The Bulldogs have shot 49% or better in each of their previous 5 at home. Give me Mississippi State minus the points for a Top Play wager.

Providence @ Villanova 6:30 PM ET

Game# 605-606

Play On: Villanova -9.5 (10*)

We have the higher ranked team in #9 Providence (24-3) as close to a double-digit underdog against #11 Villanova (21-7). Just as I expected, public money has been overwhelmingly in favor of Providence. I seldom if ever go with what can be perceived as the obvious choice. This betting situation certainly qualifies in the regard. Furthermore, I unequivocally trust the oddsmakers more than those voters participating in the national polls. These teams met just 2 weeks ago at Providence and Villanova walked away with a 5-point win. This is one of those times that the revenge factor means very little to me. The Friars just don’t match up well against Villanova. I’m calling for a decisive win and cover by the home favorite Wildcats. Gove me Villanova minus the points for my Big East Game of the Year”.

Auburn @ Tennessee 4:00 PM ET

Game# 659-660

Play On: Tennessee -3.5 (10*)

This line jumped right off the page to me since #3 Auburn comes up as an underdog versus #17 Tennessee. Especially when considering, if this game were being played at Auburn, the Tigers would only be no more than a 3.0 or 4.0-point favorite. Since Auburn was ranked #1 for a first time in program history in late January, they’ve been dominant at home but very beatable on the road. Specifically speaking, during that time span Auburn is 2-2 SU and 0-4 ATS on the road. Additionally, their only 2 SU road wins in that stretch came over Missouri by 2 as a 14.0-points favorite and by 1 over Georgia as a 14.5-point chalk. Those 2 opponents are arguably the worst teams in the SEC this season. Conversely, Tennessee is a perfect 14-0 at home this season. The Volunteers are #36 nationally out of 358 Division 1 teams in terms of home court advantage. Tennessee is also #3 nationally in defensive efficiency in giving up just 87.9 points per their opponents 100 offensive possessions. Give me Tennessee minus the small number for a Top Play wager.

LSU @ Kentucky 9:00 PM ET

Game# 737-738

Play On” Over 142.0 (10*)

LSU has played 7-1 to the over in their last 8 and that includes 4-0 over (145.5 PPG) on the road. Kentucky has played 6-0 to the over in their last 6 at home when there was a total of 141.5 or greater and a combined 163.7 points were scored per game. Kentucky is ranked #4 national in offensive efficiency while scoring 120.6 points per 100 offensive possessions. The last 5 Kentucky games have seen a combined average of 127 field goal attempts per game which equated to an extremely fast pace by college basketball standards. Give me this game to go over the total for a Top Play wager.

Villanova @ Connecticut 8:00 PM ET

Game# 639-640

Play On: Over 136.5 (10*)

Villanova has played 7-1 to the over in conference away games this season and there was a combined average of 147.1 points scored per contest. The Wildcats have also gone over the total in 5 of its last 6 overall with a combined 152.0 points scored per game. Villanova averages 9 three-point makes per game this season. Conversely, Connecticut has played 7-1 to the over this season versus opponents that average 8 or more 3-point makes per contest and there was a combined 160.0 points scored per game. During the first meeting of the season, Villanova walked away with an 85-74 home win and that contest easily sailed over the total of 128.5. The adjustment has been made to their 2nd matchup, but it still won’t prevent this game from surpassing the number. Give me this game to go over the total as a Top Play wager.

Texas A&M @ Vanderbilt 6:00 PM ET

Game# 737-738

Play On: Vanderbilt -3.5 (10*)

Vanderbilt was very competitive in road losses at #2 Auburn and #19 Tennessee. They covered the Tennessee game and fell just short in a 14-point loss to Auburn as a 13.5-point underdog. The Commodores return home where they’ve won 3 straight and a much-improved team than we saw earlier this season. Conversely, Texas A&M started the season 15-2 and then since that time they’ve gone 1-8. Their lone victory in that sequence came by 1 at home over Florida. These are two teams heading in opposite directions. Give me Vanderbilt minus the points for a Top Play wager.

Towson State @ UNC-Wilmington 6:00 PM ET

Game# 743-744

Play On: NC-Wilmington +3.5 (10*)

NC-Wilmington continues to not get much respect from oddsmakers despite going 14-2 SU&ATS in their last 16 games versus Division 1 opponents. Furthermore, the Seawolves have gone a superb 9-0 ATS and 8-1 SU in their last 9 as an underdog. Wilmington is 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS in lined home games this season, and that includes 3-0 SU&ATS as a home underdog. Give me UNC-Wilmington plus the points for a Top Play wager.

Vanderbilt @ Auburn 9:00 ET

Game# 717-718

Play On: Over 143.0 (10*)

Vanderbilt has gone over the total in each of their last 5 contests. The Commodores shot a blistering hot 43.5% from 3-point territory throughout that 5-game stretch. Auburn is coming off a 75-58 home win over Texas A&M in a game that easily went under the totakl of 141.5. However, Auburn has played 4-0 to the over in their last 4 following an under and there was a combined 152.0 points scored per game. Both teams have recently been great at getting to the foul line. Through each team’s previous 5 outings, Vandy averaged 23 free throw attempts per contest and Auburn did so 26 times per game. Conversely, during that identical 5-game stretch, both teams sent their opponents to the free throw line with almost identical frequency. Give me this game to go over the total for a Top Play wager.

Ohio State @ Michigan 6:00 PM ET

Game# 739-740

Play On: Ohio State +2.5 (10*)

My prediction is Michigan will be a heavily bet side in this matchup after their 82-58 home blowout over #3 Purdue on Thursday. It was far and away the best that Michigan has played all season. It would be a big ask to expect Michigan to turn in a similar dominating performance over another ranked team just 2 days later. It’s also unlikely the Wolverines will be able to match the emotion and laser like focus they displayed against Purdue. Conversely, #16 Ohio State will be in a sour mood after being upset 66-64 at Rutgers on Wednesday night. The good news for Buckeye backers is that their team is 5-0 SU this season following a loss. Give me Ohio State plus the small number for a Top Play wager.

Purdue @ Michigan 9:00 PM ET

Game# 843-844

Play On: Over 144.5 (10*)

#3 Purdue enters this contest after going over in their last 5 and with a combined 160.2 points scored per game. The Boilermakers have scored 80 points or more in 6 straight and 8 of its last 9 games. Purdue is #1 nationally out of 357 teams playing Division 1 basketball in offensive efficiency while scoring 126.5 points per 100 possessions. They’ll be facing a Michigan team that has allowed 74.2 points per game and permitted opponents to shoot 49.2% over their previous 5 contests.

Michigan has seen all 4 of their conference home games go over the total with a combined average of 148.4 points scored per game. The Wolverines are #24 national in offensive efficiency at 113.8 points scored per 100 possessions. Michigan will be out to avenge an 82-76 loss at Purdue in a game that took place just last Friday. That contest easily surpassed the total of 145.5. Give me this game to go over the total for a Top Play wager.

Tennessee @ Mississippi State 9:00 PM ET

Game# 745-746

Play On: Mississippi State +1.5 (10*)

#19 travels to Biloxi, Mississippi for what shapes up to be a tough matchup despite them facing an unranked opponent. The Volunteers are coming off an 81-57 blowout win at South Carolina. Since the start of last season, Tennessee has gone 0-4 SU following a conference win by 20 or more and lost by an average of 9.3 points per game. The Volunteers are just 2-4 SU in conference away games this season.

Mississippi State has displayed a strong home court advantage this season while going 12-1 SU and 9-4 ATS in those games. Furthermore, Mississippi State is 5-0 SU&ATS in conference home games this season The Bulldogs are coming off a 63-55 loss at Arkansas in a game they shot just 35.3% from the field. Mississippi State is 3-0 SU&ATS this season following a game in which they shot less than 40% and has a substantial victory margin of 18.0 points per game. The Bulldogs are in desperate need of a signature win over a ranked opponent to improve their NCAA Tournament resume. Give me Mississippi State for a Top Play wager.

Auburn @ Arkansas 7:00 PM ET

Game# 623-624

Play On: Arkansas +2.5 (10*)

They’re begging you to take the #1 Auburn Tigers as a short favorite over an unranked team. Since being ranked #1 for the first time in school history 2 weeks ago, Auburn has played 2 road games and turned in uninspiring performances against arguably the 2 worst SEC teams. They escaped with narrow wins by 1 at Missouri and by 2 versus Georgia. Conversely, this is a red-hot Arkansas team that’s riding an 8-game win streak and they covered on 7 of those occasions. The Razorbacks are also 13-1 at home this season. Give me Arkansas plus the small number for a Top Play wager.

Kentucky @ Alabama 8:00 PM ET

Game# 791-792

Play On: Alabama +1.5 (10*)

The one thing that’s been consistent for Alabama this season has been their inconsistency. The Crimson Tide is coming off a resounding 100-81 road loss at #1 Auburn. That defeat dropped the Crimson Tide’s season record to 14-8. They have also suffered puzzling losses to Iona, Davidson, at Georgia as a 14.5-point favorite, and at Missouri as a 14.0-point chalk. Nonetheless, there are many positives. Alabama has posted wins over #2 Gonzaga, #6 Houston, #8 Baylor, #22 Tennessee, and #25 LSU. So, it’s unlikely they’ll be intimidated by taking on #4 Kentucky at home where Alabama has gone 10-1 SU. Their lone home defeat was by a narrow 3-point margin against top ranked Auburn. Give me Alabama plus the small number for a 10* Top Play wager.

UCLA @ Arizona 8:00 PM ET

Game# 795-796

Play On: Under 149.0 (10*)

These teams met just 10 days ago in Los Angeles and UCLA walked away 75-59 win which easily went under the total of 150.5. These are 2 of the best defensive teams in the country with Arizona ranked #7 and UCLA #9 in defensive efficiency. Just a note, there are 357 teams playing Men’s Division 1 College Basketball.

UCLA has played 5-0 to the under during their previous 5 true road games and there was only a combined 123.2 points scored per contest. Conversely, Arizona is 5-0 to the under in their last 5 when the total was 143.0 or greater. The average total in those 5 contests was 152.0 and there was just 135.2 points scored per game. The Wildcats are coming off 2 consecutive atrocious shooting games in which they made an anemic 31.3% of their field goal attempts. UCLA has shown a significant drop off in offensive production when not play at the cozy confines of Pauley Pavillion in Los Angeles. Bet this game to go under the total for a Top Play wager.

Duke @ Notre Dame 7:00 PM ET

Game# 883-884

Play On: Notre Dame +5.5 (5*)

Notre Dame which has won 10 of their last 11 and is currently on a 4-game unbeaten streak will welcome the challenge of hosting #9 Duke. The Fighting Irish are not stranger to being a home underdog this season as they’ve been in that role twice already and fared well on both occasions. They defeated #4 Kentucky as a 4.5-points underdog and North Carolina as a 1.5-point dog. As a matter of fact, the Fighting Irish are a perfect 9-0 at home this season with an average victory margin of 11.7 points per game. Despite their outstanding 17-3 season record, Duke is just 2-2 SU in true road games, and 2 of their 3 defeats came versus unranked opponents. Bet Notre Dame plus the points for a Top Play wager.

Mississippi State @ Texas Tech 6:00 PM ET

Game# 733-734

Play On: Texas Tech -7.0 (10*)

This isn’t a good matchup for Mississippi State. The Bulldogs are 0-3 in true road game this season and they allowed 80 or more points on each occasion. They’ll be facing a Texas Tech team that’s 12-0 at home with an average victory margin of 23.7 points per game. Additionally, the Red Raiders are holding their visiting opponents to a mere 57.7 points per game and 37.8% shooting from the field. Mississippi State has faced just 1 team this season that’s currently ranked in the Top 25 and it was an 8-point loss at Kentucky in their previous game. Conversely, Texas Tech has gone 4-4 this season versus ranked teams. Bet Texas Tech minus the points for a Top Play wager.

Marquette @ Seton Hall 8:30 PM ET

Game# 729-730

Play On: Seton Hall -5.5 (10*)

Marquette is a red-hot 6-0 SU&ATS in their last 6 contests. That impressive winning run has catapulted them into the Top 25 for a first time this season at #22. Seton Hall spent most of this first half of the season as a Top 25 team. However, they just recently fell out of the Top 25 rankings and is coming off a terrible 20-point home loss to St. John’s on Monday. It’s redemption time for the Pirates tonight after losing by 1 at Marquette less than 2 weeks ago. It’s also time for a statement win after they’ve seemingly been sleep walking during recent losses. Bet Seton Hall minus the points for a Top Play wager.

Michigan State @ Illinois 7:00 PM ET

Game# 619-620

Play On: Illinois -4.5 (10*)

This line doesn’t make a whole lot of sense. We have #24 Illinois (13-5) who lost their last 2 games as a sizable favorite versus #10 Michigan State (15-3). Additionally, Michigan State is coming off a convincing upset win at #8 Wisconsin this past Friday which made them 3-0 SU&ATS this season in conference road games. Conversely, Illinois has suffered 2 home losses this season at the hands of #3 Arizona and #6 Purdue. It’s just rarely that easy. Give me Illinois minus the points.

Texas A&M @ Arkansas 8;30 ET

Game# 797-798

Play On: Arkansas -8.0 (10*)

Arkansas rebounded from a recent 3-game losing streak by winning its previous 3 games and all in impressive fashion. One of those wins came by 7 on the road at #13 LSU in a game they closed as a 6.5-point underdog. Texas A&M is coming off a 64-58 home loss to Kentucky which halted their 8-game win streak. Despite that defeat, the Aggies still possess a sparkling 15-3 record and includes 4-1 in SEC action. Yet, they’re a sizable underdog versus an Arkansas squad that’s just 3-3 in SEC play and 13-5 overall. If there’s a trap game for college basketball bettors on Saturday’s enormous card this is the one. This line makes no sense to me and when that happens, I oppose what seems obvious. Bet Arkansas minus the points for a Top Play wager.

Michigan State @ Wisconsin 9:00 PM ET

Game# 891-892

Play On: Michigan State +3.5 (10*)

What’s not to like about Wisconsin’s recent play. They’ve won 7 consecutive games and covered each of their previous 5. However, they’ll be in for their toughest test to date versus a terrific Michigan State team that’s coming off a home upset loss to Northwestern. The Spartans are 2-0 SU&ATS this season following a loss while winning by 26.5 points per game. Michigan State is also an unscathed 3-0 SU&ATS in true road games this season with their average point-spread being -6.3 and an average victory margin of 11.7. Give me Michigan State plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Purdue @ Indiana 7:00 PM ET

Game# 743-744

Play On: Indiana +3.5 (5*)

#4 Purdue is coming off a thrilling 96-88 overtime win at #17 Illinois on Monday night. Now they take on an unranked Indiana team that they’ve beaten 9 consecutive times. Furthermore, Indiana is a perfect 11-0 SU at home this season and they covered 9 of those contests. The Hoosiers have been solid defensively in their 7 Big 10 Conference games while holding opponents to 63.6 points per contest and only 39.2% shooting. Bet Indiana plus the points.

LSU @ Alabama 7:00 PM ET

Game# 685-686

Play On: Alabama -3.5 (10*)

This opening line and the ensuing movement jumped off the page at me. Alabama has gone 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 and fell out of the Top 25 for a first time this season. Yet, they opened as a 2.5-point favorite and is now -4.0 against #13 LSU. Speaking of LSU, they’re coming off a listless performance during a 7-point upset home loss to unranked Arkansas. I’m looking for Alabama to bounce back in a huge way in this matchup. Bet Alabama minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Kansas @ Oklahoma 7:00 PM ET

Game# 631-632

Play On: Oklahoma +4.0 (10*)

Oklahoma has lost 3 of their last 4 but all those defeats came on the road. The Sooners are 9-1 at home this season. I really like this Sooners team and think they’re much better than their 12-5 record indicates. Former Loyola-Chicago head coach Porter Moser was a great hire by Oklahoma, and he’s been involved in several high-pressured NCAA Tournament games and was quite successful in those games at his previous stop with a majority coming as an underdog. Kansas is just 1-1 in true road games this season and is coming off a narrow 1-point win over Iowa State in a contest they were a sizable 12.5-point favorite. Bet Oklahoma plus the points for a Top Play wager.

Michigan @ Illinois 9:00 PM ET

Game# 895-896

Play On: Over 143.5 (10*)

The Wolverines have averaged 63 field goal attempts per game in their last 5 which equates to a fast tempo and shot an impressive 48.3% while doing so. Conversely, Illinois has averaged 62 field goal attempts in their last 5 and shot 50.8% from the floor while making 41.8% of its 3-point shot attempts. Michigan has played 3-0 to the over in Big 10 Conference games and there was a combined 150.3 points scored per contest. Illinois has played 9-1-1 to the over in their last 11 and that includes 5-0 if the total was 141.0 or greater. Those 5 contests in that specific total’s parameter averaged a combined 163.4 points scored per contest. Bet this game to go over the total for a Top Play wager.

Kansas @ Texas Tech 4:00 PM ET

Game# 695-696

Play On: Texas Tech +4.5 (10*)

#6 Kansas (12-1) has faced just 1 team this season currently in the Top 25 and that was in their season opener versus #10 Michigan State. Conversely, #25 Texas Tech (10-3) only 3 losses this season came at the hands of #16 Providence, #11 Iowa State, and #4 Gonzaga. The Red Raiders also own a win over #18 Tennessee. Since the start of the 2017-2018 season, Texas Tech has gone 68-10 at home and that includes 8-0 in their current campaign. The Red Raiders are a terrific defensive team that is 9th nationally in field goal percentage defense and #11 in scoring defense. We have a team with a strong home court which holds opponents to less than 40% shooting, allows less than 60 points per game, and has an extremely strong court. Bet on Texas Tech plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Marquette @ Georgetown 6:30 PM ET

Game# 861-862

Play On: Georgetown +2.5 (10*)

Unranked Marquette is coming off a resounding 32-point home win over #16 Providence. We must keep things in perspective before overreacting to that blowout win which did indeed end a 4-game Marquette losing streak. Conversely, Georgetown is coming off a 80-73 home loss to TCY which put a halt to a 3-game Hoyas win streak. Marquette has played the much stronger schedule and has a better record than Georgetown. Yet, they’re just a tiny favorite in this matchup. It’s rarely that easy when it comes to sports betting. Bet Georgetown plus the small number for a Top Play wager.

USC @ California 11:00 PM ET

Game# 835-836

Play On: California +5.5 (10*)

USC enters this contest with unbeaten 12-0 record and ranked #7 in the country. Nevertheless, they will be facing a red-hot California team which has won 5 straight and by an average of 17.6 points per game. During this current win streak, Cal is allowing just 52.8 points per game and held their opponents to a miserable 34.9% shooting from the field. Additionally, throughout their 5-game win streak Call has converted on a terrific 39.5% of its 3-point shot attempts and is a +10 rebound per game differential. Lastly, Cal was upset in their home opener by UC-Sam Diego, and since that time has reeled off 9 consecutive wins in Berkely while covering 8 of those contests. Bet California plus the points for a Top Play wager.

Wisconsin @ Purdue 7:00 PM ET

Game# 867-868

Play On: Purdue -12.5 (10*)

We have two nationally ranked teams squaring off in this matchup. The #3 Purdue Boilermakers (12-1) enters this contest as a double-digit favorite versus the #23 Wisconsin Badgers (10-2). Purdue is 8-0 at home this season while winning by a substantial margin of 28.0 points per game. The Boilermakers have shot 50% or better in 10 of 13 games this season and have made an impressive 41.1% of their 3 point-shot attempts on the year. Purdue is also a dominant rebounding team at +14 per game in that category. The Badgers aren’t a great offensive nor rebounding team. Considering these are 2 ranked teams, this is a heavy line in which the sportsbooks are begging you to take the double-digit underdog. I’m not falling for the trap. Give me Purdue minus the points for a Top Play wager.

Akron @ Wright State 7:00 PM ET

Game# 657-658

Play On: Over 146.0 (10*)

Wright State has seen each of its last 4 contests go over the total and there was a combined average of 158.5 points scored per game. According to college basketball statistical guru Ken Pomeroy, Wright State ranks 31st out of 358 Division 1 teams in offensive tempo while averaging 72.2 possessions per 40 minutes. Additionally, Wright State opponents have an average length of offensive possession against them is 15.7 seconds which is 5th fastest in the country.

Akron has also played 4-0 to the over in its last 4 with a combined average of 145.8 points scored per game. Throughout their previous 5 contests, Akron has made an excellent 79.4% of their free throws and 39.3% of its 3-point shot attempts. Bet this game over the total for a Top Play wager.

Alabama @ Memphis 9:00 PM ET

Game# 633-634

Play On: Memphis +3.5 (10*)

This game has trap written all over it. We have #6 Alabama coming off huge wins in their last 2 outings over #5 Gonzaga and #14 Houston who both were Final Four Teams last April. Then there’s Memphis who’s gone 0-4 SU&ATS in their last 4 games after starting the season 5-0 and being nationally ranked. Yet, Alabama is a short favorite in this spot and would seem to be an obvious choice for novice bettors. Well, I’m not a novice and rarely does obvious choices in sports betting appeal to me. Bet Memphis plus the points for a Top Play wager.

Arizona @ Illinois 5:00 PM ET

Game# 671-672

Play On: Illinois +3.0 (10*)

This line opened with #11 Arizona (8-0) being a 1.0-point favorite and now it’s -3.0 against unranked Illinois (7-2). Public betting has surely been influenced by Arizona not only being 8-0 but 7-1 ATS as well. Conversely, Illinois started the season 2-2 but has reeled off 5 straight wins since. They covered each of their previous 3 versus Notre Dame, Rutgers, and at Iowa. During their current 5-game win streak Illinois has averaged a robust 84.2 points scored per game, shot 51.6%, and converted on a superb 41.5% of its 3-point attempts. Illinois also possesses an outstanding +14 rebound per game margin. Since the start of the 2019-2020 season, Illinois is 31-5 at home and has only been an underdog once. Bet Illinois plus the points for a Top Play wager.

Michigan State @ Minnesota 9:00 PM ET

Game# 703-704

Play On: Michigan State -7.0 (10*)

Minnesota enters this contest with an unblemished 7-0 record. Yet, they received no votes in the latest college basketball AP Poll and for good reason in my opinion. They haven’t really beat anyone of note. The Golden Gophers will be playing its first game this season against a ranked opponent. The public will surely be enticed to take an unbeaten sizable home underdog like Minnesota against a 2-loss opponent. I on the other hand, look at this contest from a contrarian betting viewpoint.

#19 Michigan State is 6-2 with their only losses coming to #2 Baylor and #9 Kansas in their season opener. They own a win on a neutral floor over #15 Connecticut and another coming at home by 9 over Louisville. The Spartans are unequivocally more battle tested of the 2 teams in this matchup and it will pay dividends this evening. Not to mention, they’ll be out to revenge an embarrassing 25-point loss at Minnesota last season. Bet Michigan State minus the points for a Top Play wager.

Duke @ Ohio State 9:30 PM ET

Game# 637-638

Play On: Ohio State +2.5 (10*)

Duke is coming off a huge win over then #1 Gonzaga which catapulted them to the top spot in the latest AP Poll. Now thy find themselves as a short favorite on the road against an unranked Ohio State team that’s already suffered 2 losses this season. The sportsbooks are begging you to take the top ranked Duke Blue Devils. I am declining that invitation. Bet Ohio State plus the small number for a Top Play wager.

Washington vs. South Dakota State 9:30 PM ET

Game# 613-614

Play On: South Dakota State -6.0 (10*)

This line opened at 7.5 and is now down to 6.0. I’m of the opinion that public and not sharp money was the cause of the line move. After all, we have a poer conference team as an underdog versus an opponent from the Summit. Washington is coming off yesterday’s 77-74 upset win over George Mason in a game thy closed as a 4.5-point underdog. It was by far the Huskies best offensive performance of the year while shooting 48% and considering they shot 40% or worse in each of their first 4 contests. Washington is 3-2 and suffered resume killing home losses to Northern Illinois as a 20.0-point favorite and Wyoming.

South Dakota State is a terrific mid-major team. I was on them yesterday as a 2.5-point favorite when they blew out Nevada 102-75. The Jackrabbits are 5-1 straight up and 4-1 ATS in lined games. They’ve been superb offensively to start the season which is evidenced by them averaging 90.7 points scored per game while shooting an impressive 51.4% and a spectacular 44.1% from 3-point territory. The Jackrabbits only defeat came at #10 Alabama 104-88. Despite that loss, they still shot a stellar 48.6%. This is considered a neutral site game despite being played Sioux Falls, South Dakota as part of the Crossover Classic Tournament. Bet South Dakota State minus the points for a Top Play wager.

Ohio @ Kentucky 7:00 PM ET

Game# 827-838

Play On: Ohio +12.0 (10*)

Kentucky is unequivocally the more talented in athletic team in this matchup. However, Ohio is an experienced and battle tested team. The Bobcats are the defending MAC Tournament champions and upset Virginia in the 1st Round of the 2021 NCAA Tournament as a #13 seed. Ohio has begun this season by going 3-0 SU&ATS. The Bobcats are averaging 12 three-point makes per game while converting on a solid 38.3% of those long-distance attempts. Look for that ability to knock down 3-point shots as a key contributing factor to us covering this game.  Bet Ohio plus the points for a Top Play wager.

Oklahoma vs. East Carolina 7:00 PM ET

Game# 751-752

Play On: Over 137.5 (10*)

Both teams in this matchup can score with regularity and like to play at an up-tempo pace. During their first 2 contests, Oklahoma averaged 86.5 points scored per game, shot 57.3%, and made 40.0% of its 3-point attempts. Despite shooting at such a high percentage, the Sooners still averaged a robust 62 field goal attempts per contest. Through East Carolina’s first 3 games they averaged 82.7 points scored and 67 field goal attempts per outing. This one has all the earmarks of an entertaining up and down high scoring game. Bet over the total for a Top Play wager.

Baylor vs. Gonzaga 9:20 PM ET

Game# 811-812

Play On: Gonzaga -4.0 (10*)

College Basketball fans have been waiting for this matchup to take place all season and appropriately it occurs in the National Championship game. I cashed in easily with Baylor as a 10* Top Play on Saturday in their blowout win over Houston. I really like this Bears team, but Gonzaga can beat you in a vast assortment of ways. The Bulldogs are coming off their thrilling overtime win against a game and resilient UCLA team. It was the first time in 28 games that Gonzaga had not won a game by 10 points or more. The Bulldogs will be inspired by seeking their first ever national championship and after coming up short in the title game versus North Carolina in 2017. Additionally, Gonzaga will look to be the first team to finish undefeated and win a national championship since Indiana accomplished the feat in 1976. The Bulldogs had their scare against UCLA and now they’ll get back to their dominant self tonight. Bet on Gonzaga minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Houston vs. Baylor 5:15 PM ET

Game# 801-802

Play On: Baylor -5.0 (10*)

Houston is the first team in NCAA Tournament history that has won 4 straight games against double-digit seeds. However, they were lucky to escape with a 3-point win over Rutgers and nearly squandered a 17-point halftime lead before winning by 6 versus #12 seed Oregon State in their previous game. On both occasions they failed to cover.

Conversely, Baylor is 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3 with wins coming over the likes of #8 seed Wisconsin, #5 seed Villanova, and #3 seed Arkansas and the average margin of victory was 11.0 points per game. They covered each of those 3 contests as a favorite and averaged just 6.2 turnovers committed per game. Furthermore, Baylor is #1 nationally in 3-point shooting at 41.1% and #3 in offensive efficiency by scoring 123.0 points per every 100 possessions this season. Not only has the top seeded Bears had a tougher slate than Houston during the “Big Dance”, they also played in a significantly stronger Big 12 Conference than the American Athletic where Houston competes. Bet on Baylor minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

UCLA vs. Michigan 9:55 PM ET

Game# 659-660

Play On: Michigan -6.5 (10*)

#1 seed Michigan (23-4/.852) takes on #11 seed UCLA (21-9/.700) in Tuesday’s NCAA Tournament East Regional Final. The Wolverines are coming off a 76-58 win over Florida State while covering with ease as a 2.0-point favorite. UCLA is coming off an overtime win over Alabama and did so as a 6.0-point underdog.

Since the 1990 NCAA Tournament, any #1 seed that’s a favorite of 10.0 or less who possesses a win percentage of .851 to .944, and is playing after Round 1, and they covered their previous game by 4.5-points or more, versus an opponent with a win percentage of .771 or less and they are coming off an upset win, resulted in those top seeds going 12-0 ATS. The average line in those 12 contests was 8.8 and those #1 seeds won by a substantial average of 19.8 points per game. Bet on Michigan minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Arkansas vs. Baylor 9:57 PM ET

Game# 653-654

Play On: Baylor -7.5 (10*)

Baylor is coming off a 62-51 win over Villanova and covered as a 7.5-point favorite. Since the start of the 2019-2020 season, Baylor has gone an extremely profitable 12-1 ATS following a game in which they allowed 55 points or fewer and they outscored their opponents by an average of 16.1 points per game. Furthermore, Arkansas averages a robust 65 field goal attempts per game this season which translates to playing at a lightning-fast tempo. However, Baylor is 9-1 ATS during the past 3 seasons versus opponents averaging 62 or more field goal attempts per game and outscored those team by a decisive margin of 20.0 points per contest. Simply put, attempting to play up tempo basketball plays right into the Bears hands.

Arkansas barely escaped with a 72-70 win over #15 seed Oral Roberts in their previous game while failing to cover as an 11.0-point favorite. Any NCAA Tournament favorite of 9.0 or less that’s playing after Round 1, and they’re coming off an ATS cover as a favorite, versus an opponent (Arkansas) coming off game in which they failed to cover as a favorite, and that opponent has a win percentage of .687 or better, resulted in those favorites going 7-0 ATS since 2012. The average margin of victory in those 7 contests was 17.7 points per game. Bet on Baylor minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.