|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|01-22-23||Bengals v. Bills -5.5||Top||27-10||Loss||-110||27 h 4 m||Show|
Cincinnati @ Buffalo 3:00 PM ET
Play On: Buffalo -5.5 (10*)
The Cincinnati Bengals have been a betting darling right now and are on a 9-game win streak. However, since the start of the 2011 NFL season, teams that are an underdog of 3.0 or greater that have won 8 of more games in a row have gone 0-7-1 ATS. The Bengals offensive line will be without 2 and possibly 3 starters on Sunday. Cincinnati was very fortunate to escape with a 24-17 home win over Baltimore in the Wildcard Round. They were outgained in that contest by a substantial margin 364-234 yards. If not for a game changing 98-yard fumble return with 10 minutes left with the game tied at 17, the Bengals were in line for a shocking early postseason exit.
Buffalo’s 34-31 win over Miami was extremely deceiving. The Bills outgained the Dolphins in that contest by a massive margin 423-231 yards. The Dolphins were afforded short fields by way of 2 interception returns and a punt return. Miami also scored a defensive touchdown on a strip sack fumble return. Buffalo has been a highly scrutinized team despite their 14-3 season record which includes a current 8-game win streak. As a matter of fact, they’re 3 losses came by just a combined 3-points. Yet, because of the preseason hype which publicized them as a favorite to win the Super Bowl, the Bills have been labeled by many as an overrated team. Under current head coach Sean McDermott, the Bills are a perfect 4-0 in home playoff games, and cover on both occasions that they were a favorite of 6.0 or less while winning by a enormous average of 22.0 points per game.
NFL Playoff home favorites of 9.0 or less like Buffalo who are coming off a home favorite SU win in which they failed to cover, and there’s a total of 40.0 or greater, versus an opponent like Cincinnati who has a win percentage of .777 or worse, resulted in those postseason home favorites going 5-0 SU&ATS since 1990. The average victory margin in those 5 contests came by an average of 20.0 points per game, and they covered those outings by an average of 16.1 points per occurrence.
Give me Buffalo minus the points.
|01-21-23||Jaguars v. Chiefs OVER 52||Top||20-27||Loss||-110||20 h 18 m||Show|
Jacksonville @ Kansas City 4:30 PM ET
Play On: Over 52.0 (10*)
Since 1/20/2019, Kansas City has played 6-1 to the over in home playoff games with a total of 56.5 or less. Those 7 contests had an average total of 52.2 and there was a combined 66.1 points scored per game.
Jacksonville has played 5-0 to the over in their last 5 non-division away underdog of 9.0 or less, and there was a total of 42.0 or greater. The Jaguars have also played 3-0 to the over in their last 3 when there was a total of 45.5 or greater, and there was a combined 63.0 points per game. The Jaguars enter this Divisional Round matchup riding a 6-game win streak. NFL Playoff teams like Jacksonville who have won 6 or more games in a row, and there was a total of 52.0 or greater, saw those situations play 4-0 to the over and there was a combined 62.3 points scored per occurrence since 2017.
NFL Playoff home favorites of 4.5 or more like Kansas City that are coming off a bye, with a total of 42.0 or more, and they’re coming off 5 or more wins in a row, resulted in those situations playing 11-0 to the under since 1990. The average total in those games was 47.5 and there was a combined 55.5 points scored per game.
Give me this game to go over the total.
|01-14-23||Iowa State +8.5 v. Kansas||Top||60-62||Win||100||20 h 32 m||Show|
Iowa State @ Kansas 4:00 PM ET
Play On: Iowa State +8.5 (10*)
There’s no denying how good the defending national champion Kansas Jayhawks are. The Jayhawks are 15-1 with their lone defeat coming versus a Tennessee who is a serious national title contender. However, since the 2020-2021 season, Kansas is 1-8 ATS in January home games with just a +1.3 point per game differential. Kansas is 2-0 at home in conference thus far but those victories over Oklahoma and Oklahoma State came by just a combined 6 points.
Iowa State can be extremely frustrating to play against. They play at a snail’s pace offensively, are #6 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, and #1 in forcing turnovers. This is also a very experienced Cyclones team that won’t be rattled by a hostile environment. Iowa State is coming off an 84-50 home blowout win over a solid Texas Tech team. That win improved their season record to 13-2 and includes 4-0 during Big 12 Conference games.
Give me Iowa State plus the points.
|01-08-23||Lions v. Packers -4.5||Top||20-16||Loss||-110||26 h 16 m||Show|
Detroit @ Green Bay 1:00 PM ET
Play On: Green Bay -4.5 (10*)
Detroit does come in having gone a red-hot 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games. However, their defense has horrible against the run over the last 2 games while allowing a combined 520 yards rushing and a massive 8.0 yards per attempt. They will be up against it again against a the superb running back due of Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon.
Let’s start with the regular season home record of Green Bay. Since the beginning of the NFL 2019-2020 season, the Packers have gone an outstanding 27-4 SU (.871) and 21-10 ATS (68%) in regular season home games. Furthermore, Green Bay is 6-0 SU&ATS in their last 6 NFC North Division home games. The average line in those games was -9.4 and they won by 19.5 points per contest. Green Bay will be playing with revenge from an earlier season 15-9 loss at Detroit in a game they outgained the Lions by a decisive 135 yards, and only to be victimized by 3 Aaron Rogers interceptions. That’s highly unlikely to occur again. Green Bay enters this regular season finale having gone 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 and in a position to guarantee an NFC Wildcard Playoff spot with a win over their division rival.
Any NFL home favorite of 7.0 or less like Green Bay that’s playing in their final regular season finale, and they’ve won 4 or more games in a row, and they covered their previous contest against a division foe while doing so by 7.0 points or more, resulted in those home favorites of 7.0 or less going 6-0 SU&ATS since 1986. The average point spread in those 6 contests was 5.0 and there was an substantial average victory margin of 23.2 points per game.
Give me Green Bay minus the points.
|01-01-23||Vikings v. Packers -3||Top||17-41||Win||100||27 h 46 m||Show|
Vikings @ Packers 4:25 PM ET
Play On: Packers -3.0 (10*)
The Packers will have a high degree of urgency and desperation with their playoff chances hanging in the balance. Since the beginning of the 2019-2020 NFL season, Green Bay has gone 26-4 SU (86.7%) and 20-10 (67%) during their regular season home games. During that exact time span, Green Bay was 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS in NFC North Division home games.
Additionally, and since the 2019-2020 NFL season began, Minnesota has gone 1-6 SU&ATS when they were a pick’em/underdog of 3.0 or less. They’ve also gone 0-4 SU&ATS in their last 4 in that exact role and lost by an average of 13.0 points per game. They had 2 such instances this year which resulted a 24-7 loss at Philadelphia and 34-23 defat at Detroit.
NFL regular season home favorites of 3.0 or greater like the Packers who are playing after Game 14 and are coming off a win, and they possess a losing record, versus an opponent like Minnesota that has a win percentage of .571 or better, resulted in those home favorites going 7-0 ATS since 1983. The average victory margin in those 7 contests came by 13.0 points per game.
Give me Green Bay minus the points.
|12-18-22||Steelers v. Panthers -3||Top||24-16||Loss||-100||22 h 50 m||Show|
Pittsburgh @ Carolina 1:00 PM ET
Play On: Carolina -3.0 (5*)
Carolina is coming off wins at Seattle and versus Denver in their previous 2 games. That improved their season record to 5-8 and only 1.0 game behind NFC South leading Tampa Bay. What was even more --impressive about those 2 wins was the Panthers ability to run the ball with a high degree of success. They rushed for a combined 361 yards in those 2 wins. The Panthers have gone a perfect 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3 at home and all those victories came by 10 points or more. They rushed for 173 yards or more in all 3 of those home wins.
The Carolina defense has been outstanding over their previous 5 contests while allowing only 15.5 points and 283.0 yards per game. That doesn’t bode well for a Pittsburgh offense that averages just 15.6 points scored per game on the road. The Steelers defense has allowed a combined 361 yards on the ground and 5.2 yards per rushing attempt in their last 2 games. The Steelers are a deceiving 3-4 on the road this season when considering they’re at -8.8 points and -67.9 yards per game differential during those outings.
Give me Carolina minus the points.
|12-17-22||Florida v. Oregon State -8||Top||3-30||Win||100||24 h 0 m||Show|
Florida vs. Oregon State 2:30 PM ET
Play On: Oregon State -8.0 (10*)
This will be a depleted Florida roster that will enter Saturday’s Las Vegas Bowl. Quite frankly, they were an average at best team before the loss of players to the transfer portal and opt out for the NFL Draft since their regular season slate concluded. The Gators finished 6-6 during regular season action which included 1-4 in neutral site or away games and allowed 31 points or more in those losses.
Oregon State enters this bowl game riding a ton of momentum after completing a 9-3 regular season campaign which culminated with a 38-34 win over bitter in state rival Oregon. They also saw 2 of their 3 losses come by exactly 3 points versus nationally ranked Washington and USC.
Give me Oregon State minus the points for a Top Play wager.
|12-11-22||Bucs v. 49ers -3||Top||7-35||Win||100||23 h 53 m||Show|
Tampa Bay @ San Francisco 4:25 PM ET
Play On: San Francisco -3.0 (-120) (10*)
Forget about the San Francisco’s injury issues at quarterback. They will win this game by a comfortable margin with their stout defense and effectively running the ball on offense. The 49ers enter this week on a 5-games winning streak with all 5 wins coming by 6 points or more and 4 of those by 13 points or greater. Even further impressive is the fact that their defense has allowed 11.4 points per game during this current win streak. Speaking of the 49ers defense, they rank #1 in both points and yards allowed per game. San Francisco has held 8 of 12 opponents to less than 300 yards of total offense this season. On the other hand, Tampa Bay has scored 22 points or fewer in their last 8 and 10 of its previous 11 games.
NFL home favorites of 4.5 or less like San Francisco that are playing before Game 15 and they’re coming off home wins in their last 2 games, and they’re not undefeated, versus teams like Tampa Bay coming off a win and they have a win percentage of between .384 and .727, resulted in those home favorites of 4.5 or less going 11-0 SU&ATS since 1983. The average margin of victory came by 13.0 points per game.
Give me the 49ers minus the points.
|12-04-22||Dolphins v. 49ers -4||Top||17-33||Win||100||23 h 49 m||Show|
Dolphins @ 49ers 4:05 PM ET
Play On: 49ers -4.0 (10*)
Miami is extremely explosive offensively. Nonetheless, this will be that high scoring unit’s toughest task of the season up until now. The 49ers defense has allowed 19 points or fewer in 9 of 11 games this season. They also yielded fewer than 300 yards on 8 separate occasions. Miami is currently on a 5-game win streak but all those beaten opponents currently have a losing record and a cumulative season record of 15-31-1 (.326). The Dolphins are 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 this season when facing teams that currently have a winning record. By the way, San Francisco has won its last 4 and outscored those opponents by an average of 16.0 points per game.
Give me the 49ers minus the points.
|12-03-22||Toledo v. Ohio +3||Top||17-7||Loss||-110||23 h 50 m||Show|
Toledo vs. Ohio 12:00 PM ET
Play On: Ohio +3.0 (10*)
These teams finished on opposite paths to close regular season action. Toledo has gone an uninspiring 2-3 SU and abysmal 0-5 ATS throughout their previous 5 games played. Ohio started their MAC schedule with a loss at Kent State. Since that time, they’ve gone 7-0 SU&ATS in their last 8 and with a substantial average victory margin of 17.4 points per game. Furthermore, over their previous 3 games, Ohio has averaged 35.7 points scored per contest while also owning an average time of possession of 38:06 per game. Which simply means, the Bobcats defense will be fresh and hard to score against considering how their offense has dominated time of possession.
Give me Ohio plus the points as my 10* MAC Game of the Year.
|11-27-22||Bengals v. Titans +1.5||Top||20-16||Loss||-110||17 h 14 m||Show|
Bengals @ Titans 1:00 PM ET
Play On: Tennessee +1.5 (10*)
Under the guidance of head coach Mike Vrabel, and since the start of last season, Tennessee has gone 8-0 SU&ATS as regular season underdog of 1.5 to 6.5. As a matter of fact, since the beginning of the 2020 season, the Titans are 11-1 SU&ATS in that identical role under Vrabel. Lastly, since the start of last season, the Titans are 4-0 SU&ATS as a home underdog.
|11-26-22||Oregon v. Oregon State +3||Top||34-38||Win||100||22 h 10 m||Show|
Oregon @ Oregon State 3:30 PM ET
Play On: Oregon State +3.0 (5*)
You may be surprised to know that since the start of last season, Oregon State is 10-1 SU and 11-0 ATS at home versus FBS teams. The Beavers have won 5 of their last 6 overall with their only loss coming by 3 at Washington (9-2). Furthermore, each of the Beavers previous 4 wins have come by 14-points or greater, and their defense has allowed 10 points or fewer and 290 yards or less during 3 of its last 4 contests. This isn’t so much about why to fade Oregon and more aligned with my betting value concepts.
Give me Oregon State plus the points.
|11-25-22||Duke -4.5 v. Xavier||Top||71-64||Win||100||4 h 21 m||Show|
Duke @ Xavier 3:30 PM ET
Play On: Duke -4.5 (10*)
Xavier enters this Phil Knight Invitational Semifinal having in Portland. Oregon having scored an average of 85.8 points scored per game this season. The Musketeers have also allowed 81 points or more in each of their previous 2 games. College Basketball neutral site favorites versus an opponent that averages 84.0 or more points scored per game who also allowed 80 points or greater in each of their last 2 games, resulted in those favorites going 39-13 ATS (75%) since 1997. The average line for those favorites during those 37 contests was 5.8 and they outscored their opponents by an average of 10.2 points per game.
Give me Duke minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.
|11-24-22||Giants v. Cowboys -10||Top||20-28||Loss||-110||22 h 18 m||Show|
Play On: Dallas -10.0 (10*)
Both teams are 7-3 but that’s where the similarity ends. Dallas is a legitimate contender to reach the Super Bowl and is getting better each week as the season has progressed. The Giants have been a nice story as they’ve vastly overachieved and the statistical numbers and analytic convincingly support those statements.
Dallas is coming off a 40-3 win at Minnesota (8-2). While the Giants come off a home favorite SU loss to Detroit (4-6). NFL home favorites of 6.5 to 12 after Game 4 and are coming off an away win by 23 or more in which it scored 28 points or greater, versus an opponent (Giants) who is coming off a home favorite SU loss, resulted in those home favorites going 13-0 SU&ATS since 1990. The average victory margin came by 22.0 points per game.
|11-23-22||Kent State v. College of Charleston -2||Top||72-74||Push||0||7 h 22 m||Show|
Kent State @ Charleston 6:00 PM ET
Play On: Charleston -2.0 (10*)
Kent State is 5-0 but they have played a substantially weaker schedule than 4-1 Charleston has faced. Charleston’s lone loss came at #1 North Carolina by 16 and they led that contest by 8 points at the half. Charleston has recorded quality wins over Davidson, Colorado State, and Virginia Tech. They’re battle tested and are a perfect 5-0 at home while covering 4 of those contests.
Give me Charleston minus the small number.
|11-20-22||Cowboys -120 v. Vikings||Top||40-3||Win||100||24 h 44 m||Show|
Dallas @ Minnesota 4:25 PM ET
Play On: Dallas -120 (ML) (10*)
This line jumped right off the board at me when it opened as a pick on Sunday night and quickly ascended to Dallas being a 1.5-point road favorite. Why did my reaction occur? Well, Minnesota is 8-1, Dallas 6-3, and it’s the home Vikings who come up underdog. It’s rarely as easy as it looks when it comes to sports betting, and this is a prime example of such. Most sports bettors would think it’s common sense to take the home underdog versus an opponent they are 2.0 games better than in the standings and especially so when it’s the 2nd half of a season. However, common sense is crucial in everyday life but usually loses you money in the long haul when applicable to sports wagering.
Minnesota would have to lose the rest of their games to squander their NFC North Division lead, and even then, they still could possibly land on top. They’re also coming off what’s considered to be a statement win in overtime at Buffalo last Sunday. Unlike Dallas, their degree of urgency this Sunday will be much lower for Minnesota than that of the Cowboys in my professional opinion. It’s not an exact science when predicting who will be a more desperate team when it comes to NFL betting. Nonetheless, the human response element I expect from these teams on Sunday is more likely to occur in this situation.
Currently, Dallas (6-3) is in 3rd place in the NFC East standing behind the 8-1 Eagles and 7-2 Giants. They have little room for error down the regular season stretch is they aspire to be the NFC East Division champ. So yes, their sense of urgency should and will probably be at a fever high pitch. Lastly, these teams have squared off in each of the previous 2 season, both were played at Minnesota, and Dallas won each SU as an underdog.
Give me Dallas on the money line for my NFL 10* Game of the Year.
|11-19-22||USC -119 v. UCLA||Top||48-45||Win||100||26 h 43 m||Show|
USC @ UCLA 8:00 PM ET
Play On: USC -119 (10*)
College Football away teams playing after Game 7 that are coming off a home win by 33 points or more, and they have a win percentage of .800 or better, versus an opponent coming off a home loss, resulted in those road teams going 25-3 SU (89.2%) since 1984.
Give me USC on the money line for my PAC-12 Game of the Year.
|11-13-22||Browns +4 v. Dolphins||Top||17-39||Loss||-110||122 h 6 m||Show|
Browns @ Dolphins 1:00 PM ET
Play On: Browns +4.0 (10*)
Miami is currently on a 3-game win streak. However, those 3 victories came against Pittsburgh (2-6), Detroit (2-6), and Chicago (3-6) who have a combined season record of 7-18 (.280). Furthermore, all 3 of those wins came by 6 points or fewer. During their previous game which resulted in a 35-32 win at Chicago, they allowed the Bears to rush for 252 yards and an alarmingly high average of 6.3 yards per attempt. Miami will be facing Cleveland’s #3 rushing offense in the NFL that averages 164.6 yards per game on the ground and 5.0 yards per attempt. The only teams that rank higher than Cleveland in that department are the Bears and Ravens, and both have extremely mobile quarterbacks (Lamar Jackson, Justin Fields) who have combined to rush for 1237 yards thus far this season. So, we can make a strong case that the Dolphins defense will be facing the best conventional rushing attack in the NFL.
Cleveland is just 3-5 this season. However, 4 of their 5 losses came by just a combined 9 points. With a little bit of luck, they very easily could be 7-1. My point being, the Browns are a much better team than their record indicates. They’ll also enter this contest off a momentum building 32-13 home win over the defending AFC champion Cincinnati Bengals and did so as a 3.0-point home underdog. Additionally, the Browns are coming off their bye week while Miami played last Sunday. The Browns will be able to run the ball with a high degree of success and in turn dominate time of possession. Hence, limiting an explosive Dolphins offense in terms of number of possessions. By the way, Cleveland has gone 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 3.5 or greater and won 3 of those 7 contests straight up. Their 4 SU losses in that situation all came by 5 points or fewer.
Give me the Browns plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.
|11-12-22||TCU v. Texas -7||Top||17-10||Loss||-110||50 h 2 m||Show|
TCU @ Texas 7:30 PM ET
Play On: Texas -7.0 (10*)
I have preached to whomever will listen, “think like an oddsmaker”. By doing so, you will have a huge edge when compared with many sports bettors in terms of your ability to pick winners.
If the season were to end today, the unbeaten 9-0 TCU Horned Frogs would be the #4 seed in the College Football Playoffs. Yet, here they are as a sizable underdog versus a Texas team which enters this matchup with just a 6-3 record. It’s worth noting, despite their 9-0 record, TCU has won 6 of its last 7 by 10 points or fewer. The sportsbooks thrive off bettors who make which are perceived to be obvious picks, and they will again after this contest goes final as well.
College Football conference home favorites of between 2.5 to 10.0 (Texas) who have a win percentage of .875 or less, facing an undefeated team (TCU) that’s playing after Game 7 and they’re coming off a SU win by 12 points or less, resulted in those home favorites going 13-0-1 ATS and 14-0 SU since 1983. The average victory margin during those 14 contests came by 15.6 points per contest.
Give me Texas minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.
|11-06-22||Seahawks v. Cardinals OVER 49||Top||31-21||Win||100||27 h 5 m||Show|
Seattle @ Arizona 4:05
Play On: Over 49.0 (10*)
Seattle has seen each of their previous 3 away games go over the total and there was an enormous average of 74.7 points per contest. Seattle is coming off a 27-13 home win over the New York Giants which has improved their season record to 5-3 (.625).
Arizona has seen its last 2 go over the total with a combined average of 68.0 points scored per contest. The Cardinals are coming off last week’s 34-26 loss at Minnesota and they now find themselves with an uninspiring 3-4 (.375) season record.
Since 2016, NFL teams with a total of 47.5 or greater who are playing after Game 6, and they’re coming off a home win by 13 or more points in which they scored 48 points or fewer, and their win percentage is between .600 to .750, versus an opponent with a win percentage of .333 or better (Arizona), resulted in those games playing 32-7 (82%) to the over.
Give me this game to go over the total.
|11-05-22||Central Florida v. Memphis +3.5||Top||35-28||Loss||-110||21 h 46 m||Show|
Central Florida @ Memphis 3:30 PM ET
Play On: Memphis +3.5 (10*)
This has all the earmarks of a trap game for UCF. The Golden Knights are coming off last Saturday’s emotional 25-21 home win over perennial conference pow Cincinnati. Up next, they’ll travel to Tulane who ic currently the top ranked Group of Five team in the country. In between, it’s this Saturday’s matchup versus a 4-4 Memphis team who has lost each of their previous 3 contests. The good news for Tigers backers is their team is 3-1 at home this season with their only loss coming in fluky fashion after blowing a 32-19 lead with less than 2 minutes left versus Houston and they fell 33-32. No miracles or flukes this time.
Give me Memphis plus the points for my College Football Top Play of the Week.
|10-30-22||49ers v. Rams +1||Top||31-14||Loss||-110||27 h 10 m||Show|
San Francisco @ LA Rams 4:25 PM ET
Play On: Rams +1.0 (10*)
The Rams are coming off a bye week and were a 24-10 home winner over Carolina in their previous game. San Francisco is coming off an embarrassing 44-23 home loss to Kansas City which dropped their season record to a disappointing 3-4.
NFL home teams (Rams) off a home win by 10-points or more, versus an opponent coming off a home loss by 21 points or greater (49ers) and they have a losing season record, resulted in those home teams going 21-0 SU since 1984. The average margin of victory in those 21 contests came by 11.0 points per game. The SU betting angle takes on added significance because it backs the current 1.0-point underdog LA Rams.
Give me the LA Rams for a 10* Top Play.
|10-29-22||Wake Forest v. Louisville +3.5||Top||21-48||Win||100||22 h 5 m||Show|
Louisville @ Wake Forest 3:30 PM ET
Play On: Louisville +3.5 (10*)
Wake Forest is coming off a 48-15 conference win at home over Boston College which improved their season record to 6-1.
Louisville is coming off conference wins in each of their last 2 games and both came by double-digit margins. That improved their season record to 4-3. The Cardinals are showing positive signs regarding finishing this season strong. During their previous 4 games, Louisville is at an excellent +8 turnover margin and forced 13 turnovers by opponents. The Cardinals are just 15-13 SU in their last 21 at home, but that fits perfectly into the betting angle displayed below.
Since 2018, college football home teams (Louisville) with a winning record that are +10.0 to -10.0 and are coming off back-to-back conference wins in which they allowed 33 points or fewer on each occasion, and they’ve won 23 or less of its previous 28 at home, versus an opponent (Wake Forest) with at least 1 loss on the season and coming off a conference win by 21 points or more, resulted in those home teams going 14-0 SU&ATS since 2018. The average victory margin in those 14 contests came by 17.1 points per game.
Give me Louisville plus the points.
|10-23-22||Colts v. Titans -2.5||Top||10-19||Win||100||24 h 49 m||Show|
Colts @ Titans 1:00 PM ET
Play On: Tennessee -2.5 (10*)
Indianapolis is coming off 2 straight wins but there were red flags to take into consideration moving forward. The Colts allowed an average of 184.0 yards rushing per game in those 2 wins, and that doesn’t bode well for this matchup since they’ll be facing a great running back in Derrick Henry.
Tennessee is coming off a bye week and that’s a noteworthy from a betting perspective. Since Mike Vrabel has been their head coach, the Titans have gone 4-0 SU&ATS in regular season games following a bye week, and with a substantial average victory margin of 20.5 points per contest. Tennessee has gone 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 versus Indianapolis and that includes a 24-17 road victory on just 3 weeks ago. The Titans were a 21-17 winner at Washington in their previous game and that made them 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3.
Since 2014, NFL teams (Titans) with a point-spread ranging from +2.5 to -3.0 with a win percentage of .510 to .600 that’s coming off a SU&ATS win, versus an opponent (Colts) with a win percentage of .571 to .750, resulted in those teams going 10-0 SU&ATS. The average victory margin in those 10 contests was 13.1 points per game.
Give me Tennessee minus the points for a 10* Top Play.
|10-22-22||Minnesota +5 v. Penn State||Top||17-45||Loss||-110||24 h 29 m||Show|
Minnesota @ Penn State 7:30 PM ET
Play On: Minnesota +5.0 (10*)
Michigan exposed a huge weakness in the Penn State run defense last week while rushing for 418 yards including 7.6 yards per attempt. Minnesota will present them with similar challenges in attempting to stop the run. The Golden Gophers offensive rushing game has amassed 240 yards or more in 4 of 6 contests this season. Minnesota will get back on track in this one and wouldn’t be shocked if they won the game outright.
We won’t get greedy. Give me Minnesota plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.
|10-16-22||Cowboys v. Eagles -6||Top||17-26||Win||100||29 h 20 m||Show|
Cowboys @ Eagles 8:20 PM ET
Play On: Eagles -6.0 (10*)
Dallas is coming off a 22-10 road win over the Rams. The Eagles are coming off a 20-17 win over Arizona and failed to cover as a 5.5-point favorite. That victory improved the Eagles record to a perfect 6-0. Philadelphia has now gone 16-16 SU in their last 32 games played.
NFL home favorites of between 5.5 to 12.0 with a win percentage of better than .600 playing after Game 5 of the season, and they’re coming off an away win in which they scored 13 or more and allowed 24 or less and failed to cover, and they’ve won 24 or fewer of their last 32 games played versus an opponent who scored 31 or less in their previous game, resulted in those home favorites going 17-0 SU&ATS since 1982. The average margin of victory in those 17 contests came by an enormous 22.2 points per game.
Give me the Eagles minus the points.
|10-15-22||Nebraska v. Purdue -14||Top||37-43||Loss||-105||21 h 29 m||Show|
Nebraska @ Purdue 7:30 ET
Play On: Purdue -14.0 (10*)
Nebraska started 1-3 but has bounced back to win their last 2 over Rutgers and Indiana. Don’t get carried away Cornhuskers fans as those 2 teams have combined to go 1-5 in Big 10 Conference play. This is the same Nebraska team that lost 49-14 to Oklahoma. Since then, Oklahoma lost its next 3 and were outscored by an average of 29.0 points per game. They also lost to Georgia Southern at home in a game they were a 23.5-point favorite and versus Northwestern in the Big 10 opener and once again as a double-digit favorite.
Purdue is 4-2 on the season and is arguably one of the best 2-loss teams in the country. Their only losses came to #18 Syracuse (5-0) and #10 Penn State (5-0). As a matter of fact, those 2 defeats came by a combined 6 points. The Boilermakers are coming off back-to-back SU road underdog wins at Minnesota (4-1) and Maryland 4-2). Purdue has played a much tougher schedule than Nebraska at this point. The Boilermakers are much better than their record indicates, and they will make sure that’s known in this contest.
Give me Purdue minus the points.
|10-13-22||Mariners v. Astros OVER 6.5||Top||2-4||Loss||-120||3 h 49 m||Show|
Mariners (Castillo) @ Astros (Valdez) 3:37 PM ET
Play On: Over 6.5 (10*)
Seattle has played 17-3 to the over in their last 20 road games following a loss. The Mariners have also played 8-2 to the over this season on the road following an off day, and that includes 4-0 over if they scored 6 runs or more in their previous outing. Additionally, there was a combined 13.0 runs scored per game in those previously mentioned 4 occurrences. The Mariners have played 6-1-1 to the over in their last 8 and there was a combined average of 11.9 runs scored per game. The Mariners bullpen has a terrible 8.18 ERA during their 3 postseason games thus far.
The Astros Framber Valdez has gone 21-10 in his team starts this season. However, during his 2 starts versus Seattle he allowed 3 earned runs on both occasions. There were 5 combined home runs hit in Game 1 of this ALDS including 3 by Houston. Give me this game to go over the total.
Any American League road team with a total of 7.0 or less that has a slugging percentage of .410 or less, and they’re coming off a game in which there was a combined 15 runs or more being scored, resulted in those games playing 34-10 (77.3%) to the over since 2018. There was a combined average of 9.1 runs scored per game in those previously mentioned 44 occurrences.
Give me this game to go over the total.
|10-09-22||Bengals +3.5 v. Ravens||Top||17-19||Win||100||27 h 18 m||Show|
Bengals @ Ravens 8:20 PM ET
Play On: Bengals +3.5 (10*)
Baltimore is a mentality fragile team right now. They’re 0-2 at home this season while blowing leads of 17 versus Buffalo and 21 points against Miami in doing so. This will be their first meeting with Cincinnati this season after losing twice versus the Bengals last year by scores of 41-21 and 41-17. The Ravens defense has looked vulnerable in 3 of their 4 games this season and I look for Cincinnati’s offense to expose them once again.
After starting the season with a pair of narrow 3-point losses, Cincinnati has roared back with 2 straight wins and covered both of those contests as a favorite. It worth noting the obvious of Cincinnati having 3 days more rest than Baltimore heading into this matchup. This is a Bengals team that’s also gone an extremely profitable 10-5 SU and 12-3 ATS during its last 15 away games. That includes 9-0 ATS and 7-2 SU if they were an underdog of 2.5 or greater in those contests.
Any NFL division road underdog of 3.5 or less that’s playing in Games 3 through 8, and is playing an opponent (Ravens) who will be playing with double revenge, resulted in those away underdogs going 12-0 SU&ATS since 2009. Now only did the away dogs cover all 12 contests but they won all of them SU by an average of 11.0-points per game. Give me the Bengals plus the points for a Top Play wager.
|10-08-22||Washington State v. USC -12.5||Top||14-30||Win||100||25 h 8 m||Show|
Washington State @ USC 7:30 PM ET
Play On: USC -12.5 (10*)
This USC team continues to get better every week under new head coach Lincoln Riley. If the Trojans have a glaring weakness, it’s defending the run. Conversely, although Washington’s offense has been productive in the air, the Cougars have struggled to get any consistency in their running game. During its 4 games versus FBS opponents this season, Washington State has averaged just 81.5 yards rushing per game while averaging a paltry 3.3 yards per attempt. During their only game versus a ranked opponent this season, Washington State allowed 44 points and surrendered 624 yards in a home loss to Oregon.
Here's another key football handicapping component that stands out in this contest. Throughout their first 5 games, USC has yet to commit a turnover while also forcing opponents to turn it over 14 times. On the other hand, Washington State has committed 12 turnovers over their first 5 games. This isn’t a good matchup for the Washington State Cougars. Yes, the Cougars are 4-1 but their win have all come versus unranked teams that have been less than impressive to start their seasons.
Any college football undefeated home favorite of -4.0 to -19.0 that’s coming off a home win, and they’re facing an opponent with a win percentage of .600 or better, resulted in those home favorites within this point-spread parameters going 11-0 ATS since 2018. The average victory margin in those 11 contests came by a decisive 22.5 points per game.
Give me USC minus the points for a 10* Top Play.
|10-07-22||Rays v. Guardians -109||Top||1-2||Win||100||22 h 5 m||Show|
Rays (McClanahan) @ Guardians (Bieber) 12:07 PM ET
Play On: Guardians -109 (10*)
These teams finished the regular season headed down opposite paths. Tampa Bay heads into the postseason having gone a dismal 8-18 in their last 26 games. Conversely, Cleveland finished regular season action a red-hot 24-6 in their last 30. The Rays finished up regular season play on a 9-game road trip which saw them go 2-7. Tampa is an awful 7-18 (.280) this season following 6 or more games on the road. Meanwhile, Cleveland played their last 10 regular season games at home. The Guardians are 23-10 (.697) this season following 5 or more consecutive games played at home.
At one point this season lefthander Shane McClanahan may have been the frontrunner for the American CY Young Award. However, the Rays hurler is 0-3 during his last 3 teams starts with a sizable 7.07 ERA/1.64 WHIP and that certainly doesn’t equate to good form. McClanahan will be facing a Cleveland team that has gone a terrific 17-4 this season as a home favorite of -110 or greater when facing a lefthanded starting pitcher. The Tampa Bay bullpen has recently struggled as evidence by their staff 6.05 ERA/1.55 WHIP over its previous 7 games. As a matter of fact, the Rays bullpen has converted on a terrible 16 of 34 (47.1%) save opportunities on the road in 2022. One more final note, the Rays were a shiny 51-30 (.629) at home this season but went just 35-46 (.432) in away games.
Shane Bieber has gone a stellar 20-11 in his teams starts this season with an exceptional 2.93 ERA/1.04 WHIP. Furthermore, Bieber is 5-1 in his previous 6 teams starts with an outstanding 2.20 ERA/0.85 EHIP. The Guardians bullpen has an excellent 0.99 WHIP throughout their previous 7 games. Cleveland’s bullpen has converted 21 of 25 (84%) save opportunities at home this season. Give me the Guardians on the money line.
|10-02-22||Patriots +10.5 v. Packers||Top||24-27||Win||100||25 h 58 m||Show|
Patriots @ Packers 4:25 PM ET
Play On: Patriots +10.5 (10*)
I may be in the minority, but I’m not as high on New England starting quarterback Mac Jones as most others are. As a matter of fact, I truly believe that there’s very little drop off by going to the veteran Booby Hoyer who will get the start due to Jones being on the shelf with an ankle injury. New England is coming off last Sunday’s 37-26 home loss to Baltimore. Under Bill Belichick, New England has gone 26-6 SU&ATS following a loss in which they allowed 31 points or more. That also includes 13-1 SU in their last 14 if they’re coming off a home defeat.
Green Bay is 2-1 thus far but it’s been the Packers defense that has far outplayed their offensive teammates. The Packers are averaging just 16.0 points scored per game. Furthermore, they are averaging 1.0 point scored per 22.2 yards gained which is terrible. They’ll be facing a solid New England defensive unit which is surrendering only 314.7 yards per game.
NFL underdogs versus teams that average 17.0 or fewer points scored per game are 21-3 ATS (87.5%) since 2018. They also went 14-11 SU during those contests.
Give me the Patriots plus the points for a 10* Top Play.
|10-01-22||Wake Forest v. Florida State -6.5||Top||31-21||Loss||-110||51 h 57 m||Show|
Wake Forest @ Florida State 3:30 PM ET
Play On: Florida State -6.5 (10*)
Florida State is off to a 4-0 start to the season which includes wins over LSU (3-1) in a game played in New Orleans, and conference victories at Louisville as well as last week’s 44-14 blowout of Boston College.
Wake Forest is coming off last Saturday’s emotional and heartbreaking 44-38 overtime loss to #5 ranked Clemson. There’s very little chance they can come close to matching the intensity level they exhibited last week, especially so because of the nature in which they lost, and now playing another national ranked team on the road. Additionally, this is an opportunity for Florida State to make a huge statement to the nation that Seminoles football is once again highly relevant. I think Florida State will be more than up to the task.
Any college football home favorite (Florida State) that averages 440 yards or more of total offense per game, and they averaged 7.25 yards or more per offensive yards per play throughout their previous 2 contests, versus an opponent (Wake Forest) who defensively allows 330 to 390 yards per game, resulted in those home teams going an exceptional 71-25 ATS (74%) since 1992. Those home teams also went 93-5 SU during those contests and outscored the visiting teams by an average of 25.9 points per game. Give me Florida State minus the points for a 10* Top Play winner.
|09-29-22||Dolphins v. Bengals -4||Top||15-27||Win||100||27 h 55 m||Show|
Dolphins @ Bengals 8:20 PM ET
Play On: Bengals -4.0 (10*)
Miami is coming off a physically grueling 21-19 home upset win over Buffalo. That game was played in extremely hot and humid conditions. Now they have a task of facing the AFC defending champion Cincinnati Bengals on the road and with just 3 days of rest. Stop and think for a second, we have a 3-0 Dolphins team that’s better than a field goal underdog, and they’re facing an opponent who’s 1-2. My educated guess is public betting will side with the underdog for just that reason alone. It’s very seldom that simple or easy when it comes to sports betting. Like I’ve said on numerous occasions and it’s worth repeating. Think like an oddsmaker and you will be much better for it.
By the way, since the start of last season, Cincinnati has gone 10-3 SU and 11-2 ATS when facing teams with a winning record. This will be their first game of the season versus a team with a winning record. The Bengals are coming off a much-needed 27-12 road win over the Jets while easily covering as a 6.5-point favorite.
Any NFL non-division home favorite of 3.0 or more (Bengals) with a win percentage of .900 or less that’s playing after Game 3 of the season, versus an opponent (Dolphins) coming off a division home underdog SU win, resulted in those home favorites going 19-2 ATS (90.5%) since 1985. Give me the Bengals minus the points for my NFL Thursday Game of the Month.
|09-25-22||49ers v. Broncos +2||Top||10-11||Win||100||27 h 45 m||Show|
San Francisco @ Denver 8:20 PM ET
Play On: Denver +2.0 (10*)
Denver has an extremely successful win rate when playing at home during the first 3 games of the season while going 38-9 SU (80.9%). Denver is coming off a 16-9 home win over Houston last Sunday but failed to cover as a sizable 10-5-point favorite. The 49ers are coming off an easy 27-7 home win over Seattle last week.
NFL home teams that are coming off a SU win in which they failed to cover as a favorite, and they’re playing in Games 2 through 5, and they’re facing an opponent coming off a division win, resulted in those home teams going 26-3 SU (89.7%) since 1990. If their road opponent’s division win came by 9 points or more, that identical NFL SU betting angle improves to 14-0 SU since 1990. The straight up betting angle takes on added value because it backs the home underdog Denver Broncos in this matchup. Give me the Denver Broncos plus the small number for a 10* Top Play.
|09-24-22||USC v. Oregon State +6||Top||17-14||Win||100||50 h 7 m||Show|
USC @ Oregon State 9:30 PM ET
Play On: Oregon State +6.0 (10*)
Oregon State is coming off a 68-28 win over Montana State which improved their season record to 3-0. Since 1980, any college football home team that’s 3-0 to start the season and is coming off a win by 35 points or more, resulted in those home teams going 49-5 SU (90.7%). This SU betting angle takes on added significance since it supports the underdog Oregon State Beavers in this matchup. USC is a +10 turnover differential during it 3-0 start, but Oregon State isn’t too shabby at +5 in that category. Give me Oregon State plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.
|09-18-22||Bears v. Packers -10||Top||10-27||Win||100||34 h 14 m||Show|
Chicago @ Green Bay 8:20 PM ET
Play On: Green Bay -10.0 910*)
Chicago is coming a 19-10 home win in their season opener last Sunday. However, we must avoid overreacting to that result especially after Green Bay’s double-digit defeat in their opening game. After all, Chicago is 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 trips to Green Bay and they were outscored by an average of 13.4 points per game.
Green Bay is coming off a 23-7 loss at Minnesota in a game they were thoroughly dominated. Before we stick a fork in the Packers after just 1 game, we must keep in mind how resilient this team has been following a regular season loss. Green Bay is 11-0 SU&ATS in their last 11 regular season games following a loss and won by an average of 13.4 points per contest.
Any NFL home favorite of 4.5 or more (Packers) that’s coming off an away underdog ATS loss, and they’re facing a team (Bears) coming off a home underdog SU win, resulted in those home favorite going 39-12 ATS (76.4%) since 1991. Give me the Packers minus the points for a 10* Top Play.
|09-17-22||Mississippi State -130 v. LSU||Top||16-31||Loss||-130||47 h 22 m||Show|
Mississippi State @ LSU 6:00 PM ET
Play On: Mississippi State -130 (10*)
LSU opened as a 1.0-point favorite in this contest and were overvalued at that simply because of their brand name. Don’t be misled by their 65-17 home blowout win last week over an FCS team in Southern University. This is a team in transition under new head coach Brian Kelly and their roster and their 2 deep roster is filled with first year transfers.
Mississippi State has looked terrific during their 2-0 starts with a 49-23 home win over Memphis in their season opener and then last week’s 39-17 blowout of Arizona on the road. The Bulldogs will be out to revenge a narrow 28-25 home loss to LSU a season ago. The Bulldogs have held their own in its last 4 trips to Baton Rouge going 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS. The mad professor Mike Leach’s air raid attack has amassed a combined 770 yards passing in their first 2 games. Give me Mississippi State on the money line for a Top Play.
|09-11-22||Giants +5.5 v. Titans||Top||21-20||Win||100||29 h 13 m||Show|
NY Giants @ Tennessee 4:25 PM ET
Play On: NY Giants +5.5 (10*)
Tennessee has won 11 or more games in each of their previous 3 season. As a matter of fact, they were the AFC #1 seed last year entering the playoffs after recording a 12-5 regular season record. Nonetheless, their regular season win total over or under has dropped to 8.5. That speaks volumes to me regarding how the oddsmakers project the Titans to be a mediocre team at best.
The Giants begin the Brian Daboll head coaching era on the road and as an underdog at Tennessee. Daboll inherits a team that went a poor 4-13 a season ago. As a matter of fact, since 2018, the Giants have gone a combined 19-46 and never won more than 6 games in a season. However, New York has gone an extremely profitable 12-2 ATS in their last 14 as an away underdog of 6.5 or less during that same time span.
Any NFL Week 1 away underdog of 6.5 or less (Giants) who won 6 games or fewer in the previous season, resulted in those away underdogs going 45-13 (77.6%) since 2000. Give me the NY Giants plus the points for a 10* Top Play.
|09-10-22||Tennessee v. Pittsburgh +6.5||Top||34-27||Loss||-110||53 h 13 m||Show|
Tennessee @ Pittsburgh 3:30 PM ET
Play On: Pittsburgh +6.5 (10*)
Tennessee is coming off an encouraging 59-10 home blowout win in their season opener last Saturday and easily covered as a 37.0-point favorite. Regardless of that emphatic win, Tennessee has gone a dismal 0-5 ATS and 2-3 SU in their last 5 as an away favorite of 2.0 or greater.
Pittsburgh is the higher ranked team, and the defending ACC champions. Yet, here they are as a touchdown underdog at home. Normally I would side with the sportsbooks in situations such as these, and then label it as a sucker play. Nevertheless, this is one of those very rare occasions I don’t have that mindset and falls under the category of there’s an exception to every sports betting rule. Recent seasons have displayed have shown me that when you disrespect Pat Narduzzi and the Panthers, it’s like poking the bear who was hibernating in his winter cave.
Any college football Game 2 non-conference home underdog of 9.0 or less (Pittsburgh) that’s coming off a non-conference home SU win, but either pushed or failed to cover, versus an opponent (Tennessee) coming off a SU&ATS win in which they covered by 8.0 or more, resulted in those home underdogs going 14-0 ATS since 2002. Those underdogs also won 10 of those 14 games outright. Give me Pittsburgh plus the points as a 10* Top Play wager.
|09-03-22||Army +2.5 v. Coastal Carolina||Top||28-38||Loss||-110||20 h 43 m||Show|
Army @ Coastal Carolina 7:00 PM ET
Play On: Army +2.5 (10*)
Coastal Carolina returns only 7 starters from a program that’s won 11 games in each of their previous 2 quarterbacks. One of those returning starters is Grayson McCall but he won’t have the supporting cast he was afforded last season. Furthermore, Army is adept at dominating time of possession with their triple option running attack which in turn can keep opposing offenses on the sidelines. Coastal ended last season on a streak of 21 consecutive weeks ranked in the Top 25. However, here they are as a short home favorite and the sportsbooks are begging you to take them.
Army has gone a combined 18-7 the last 2 seasons under current head coach Jeff Monken. Last year concluded with a 24-22 bowl win over Missouri from the SEC. The Black Knights return 14 starters including 8 on offense. Army will control the clock with long time-consuming scoring drives which will frustrate the Chanticleers. Give me Army plus the small number for a Top Play.
|08-31-22||Mariners v. Tigers OVER 8.5||Top||5-3||Loss||-110||7 h 50 m||Show|
Mariners (Gonzalez) @ Tigers (Alexander) 7:10 PM ET
Play On: Over 8.5 (10*)
Lefthander Tyler Alexander has displayed poor form over his last 3 starts while posting an 8.36 ERA/1.86 WHIP and allowed 5 homers in just 14.0 innings pitched. Detroit has seen its previous 4 all go over the total with a combined 13.7 runs scored per game.
Seattle has gone 10-1-1 to the over during its last 12 on the road and there was a combined average of 10.5 runs scored per game and that includes 4-0-1 over if there was a total of 8.0 or less. The Mariners have played 19-9-1 to the over this season when facing a lefthanded starting pitcher. Marco Gonzalez has a lofty 1.61 WHIP 12 road starts this season. Give me this game to go over the total for a Top Play wager.
|08-28-22||Braves v. Cardinals -122||Top||3-6||Win||100||9 h 51 m||Show|
Braves (Odorizz) @ Cardinals (Wainwright) 7:08 PM ET
Play On: Cardinals -122 (10*)
Jake Odorizzi is the weak link in Atlanta’s otherwise solid starting pitching rotation. Odorizzi has been in shaky form over his last 4 starts which is evidenced by a 1.63 WHIP during those outings.
Veteran righthander Adam Wainwright has been tough at home during his career and this season is no different. Wainwright has compiled and excellent 2.11 ERA/1.03 WHIP in 13 home starts in 2022 while averaging a lofty 6.6 innings pitched per start. The Cardinals are a terrific 41-22 at home this season which included 30-11 as a money line favorite of -110 or greater and 11-2 if the money line is -100 to -150. Give me the Cardinals for a Top Play wager.
|08-27-22||Braves v. Cardinals +107||Top||5-6||Win||107||8 h 35 m||Show|
Braves (Morton) @ Cardinals (Montgomery) 4:10 PM ET
Play On: Cardinals +107 (10*)
Charlie Morton has been terrific at home this season. However, he’s 4-7 in his road team starts with a 5.08 ERA. As a matter of fact, during his last 2 road starts Morton has allowed an alarmingly high 9 earned runs in 11.0 innings pitched. The Braves have suffered 23% of their losses this season with Charlie Morton as their starting pitcher.
The Cardinals are coming off an 11-4 home loss to Braves on Friday night. St. Louis has gone 7-0 in their last 7 immediately following a loss and won by an average of 4.8 runs per game. Since coming to St. Louis in a trade with the Yankees, Jordan Montgomery is a perfect 4-0 in his team starts with a magnificent 0.35 ERA. Despite Friday’s loss, St. Louis is still an excellent 40-22 at home this season and that includes 13-2 during its previous 15 at Busch Stadium. Give me the Cardinals as a Top Play money line underdog.
|08-27-22||Washington Commanders v. Ravens -6||Top||15-17||Loss||-110||122 h 23 m||Show|
Commanders @ Ravens 7:00 PM ET
Play On: Ravens -6.0
Washington has gone a dismal 0-6 ATS in their last 6 as a preseason underdog and lost by an average margin of 16.0 points per game. That includes 0-3 ATS (-17.7 PPG) under current head coach Ron Rivera.
Since 2016, Baltimore has gone an incredible 22-0 SU and 20-1-1 ATS in their preseason games under present head coach John Harbaugh. As a matter of fact, since Harbaugh was appointed as the Ravens head coach in 2008, Baltimore has gone 42-12 SU (.778) and 39-14-1 ATS (74%) in their preseason games. Since 2017, Baltimore is 4-0 SU&ATS in preseason action when facing Washington and won by an average of 19.3 points per game. Finally, Baltimore has unequivocally more quality depth on its roster which is always a key component when handicapping preseason action since starters see limited to very little playing time.
|08-15-22||Diamondbacks v. Giants OVER 7.5||Top||1-6||Loss||-120||8 h 44 m||Show|
Diamondbacks (Bumgarner) @ Giants (Cobb) 9:45 PM ET
Play On: Over 7.5 (-120) (10*)
Alex Cobb has made 3 career starts versus Arizon and all have taken place since last season. During those outings Cobb posted a large 7.20 ERA and 1.73 WHIP. The Giants bullpen has a poor 5.66 ERA/1.84 WHIP over their last 7 games and that includes 6 home runs allowed in just 20 2/3 innings pitched. San Francisco has played 8-3-1 to the over in their last 12 games. The Giants have an excellent .345 team on-base-percentage throughout its previous 7 games.
Madison Bumgarner has displayed bad form over his last 3 starts while compiling a 6.62 ERA/1.81 WHIP. Bumgarner returns to his old stomping grounds in San Francisco where he enjoyed many great campaigns. However, during his 2 starts as a visitor, Bumgarner has a lofty 6.00 ERA. Arizona is averaging a healthy 5.2 runs scored per game in their last 13 outings. The Diamondbacks are coming off a 3-game series at Coors Field which saw each go under the total. Since the start of last season, Arizona has played 17-3 to the over immediately following 3 consecutive games going under. Give me this game to go over the total for a Top Play wager.
|07-31-22||Diamondbacks v. Braves UNDER 8||Top||0-1||Win||100||3 h 27 m||Show|
Diamondbacks (Kelly) @ Braves (Fried) 1:35 PM ET
Play On: Under 8.0 (5*)
Merrill Kelly has displayed dominating form over his last 3 starts while collecting a 1.29 ERA/0.76 WHIP and averaged 7.0 innings pitched per outing. It should come as no surprise when pointing out that all 3 of those games went under the total. As a matter of fact, Kelly has pitched 6.0 innings or more during each of his last 9 starts. Kelly is also 7-2 in his road team starts this season with a more than respectable 3.18 ERA/1.14 WHIP. Conversely, Arizona has gone a terrible 11-25 on the road whenever Kelly wasn’t their starting pitcher. Heading into the weekend, the Arizona bullpen had a sparkling 2.25 ERA/1.00 WHIP during its previous 7 games.
As of games played through Friday 7/29, Atlanta had played 12-2 (83%) to the under in their last 14 at home. Max Fried has a stellar 2.73 ERA/1.09 WHIP in 12 home starts this season while averaging 6.3 innings pitched per outing. The Braves bullpen has a shiny 1.08 WHIP throughout their previous 7 games. Give me this game to go under the total.
|07-30-22||Dodgers v. Rockies OVER 11||Top||3-5||Loss||-106||9 h 5 m||Show|
Dodgers (Kershaw) @ Rockies (Freeland) 8:10 PM ET
Play On: Over 11.0 (-106) (10*)
Despite this game being played at Coors Field, this is an extremely high total for a game in which Clayton Kershaw is one of the starting pitchers. They’re begging you to take the under in this matchup and I’m not falling for the bait. Truth be told, Kershaw has made 1 start both this year and last at Coors, and he posted a terrible 10.24 ERA/2.48 WHIP during those 2 outings. Kershaw does possess a sparkling 2.49 ERA this season. However, Colorado has played 23-6 to the over since the start of last season when facing a National League starting pitcher with an ERA of 2.70 or less.
Since 2019, Kyle Freeland is 1-5 during his home team starts versus the Dodgers with a 7.10 ERA/1.55 WHIP and he allowed 7 home runs in 31 2/3 innings pitched. The Dodgers won Game 2 of this series last night 5-4 and it went under the total of 11.5. The Dodgers have played 6-1 to the over during their last 7 following an under in its previous game, and there was a combined average of 12.3 runs scored per occurrence. Give me this game to go over the total.
|07-29-22||Brewers -1.5 v. Red Sox||Top||4-1||Win||100||9 h 32 m||Show|
Brewers (Woodruff) @ Red Sox (Bello) 7:10 PM ET
Play On: Brewers -1.5 (+100) (5*)
Brayan Bello has made 3 starts this season and all have come since 7/6. During those 3 outings Bello posted an alarmingly high 10.50 ERA/2.50 WHIP. The Red Sox bullpen has an awful 8.10 ERA/1.80 WHIP throughout its previous 7 games. Despite yesterday’s 4-3 win over Cleveland, Boston is still a dismal 5-15 in their last 20 games and includes 1-7 during its previous 8.
On the other hand, Milwaukee enters today having won 5 of its previous 6 games and they scored 6 runs or more in all 5 wins. The Brewers last played on Wednesday when they recorded a 10-4 win over Minnesota. Since the start of last season, Milwaukee has gone an extremely profitable 25-9 on the road immediately following a win by 4 runs or more. Brandon Woodruff has displayed good form over his last 5 starts while collecting a 2.20 ERA/1.05 WHIP during that stretch. Give me the Brewers on the run line.
|07-25-22||Braves -1.5 v. Phillies||Top||4-6||Loss||-109||7 h 32 m||Show|
Braves (Fried) @ Phillies (Suarez) 7:05 PM ET
Play On: Braves -1.5 (-109) (10*)
Rangers Suarez has made 2 starts versus Atlanta this season and was highly ineffective in both. During those 2 outings, Suarez posted a 7.36 ERA/1.64 WHIP in 11.0 innings pitched. The Phillies bullpen has posted a lofty 5.56 ERA over their last 7 games. Philadelphia enters today having lost their last 3 and 7 of its previous 10 games.
Atlanta is coming off yesterday’s 9-1 home loss to the Angels. However, the Braves have gone 10-0 in their last 10 following a loss and outscored their opponents by an average of 4.3 runs per game. As a matter of fact, Atlanta hasn’t lost 2 consecutive games since 6/18. Since the start of last season, Atlanta has gone an extremely profitable 41-14 as a money line road favorite of -125 or greater. Max Fried is 6-1 in his road team starts this season with a terrific 2.51 ERA/0.79 WHIP and averaged 6.7 innings pitched per outing. The current total on this game is 8.0. Fried is a superb 21-3 in his team starts since last season whenever there was a total of 8.0 or 8.5. Give me the Braves on the run line for a Top Play.
|07-24-22||Cardinals -131 v. Reds||Top||3-6||Loss||-131||19 h 19 m||Show|
Cardinals (Mikolas) @ Reds (Mahle) 1:40 PM ET
Play On: Cardinals -131 (10*)
We have the better starting pitcher and bullpen in Sunday’s matchup of NL Central foes. Miles Mikolas has been as consistent as they come in 2022 while posting a 2.54 ERA/0.96 WHIP throughout 19 starts. Mikolas has also been a workhouse while averaging 6.3 innings pitched per start over those 19 outings. The Cardinals hurler has gone 25-8 in his career team starts during day games. St. Louis has gone an extremely profitable 32-14 this season as a money line favorite of -110 or greater. Furthermore, since the start of last season, the Cardinals are 30-10 as a money line road favorite of -110 or greater and won by 2.3 runs per game.
Cincinnati is a dismal 5-23 this season when facing National League teams that allow 4.0 or fewer runs scored per game, and they outscored by a decisive 3.0 runs per outing. Tyler Mahle has gone 1-9 in his home team starts this season with a lofty 1.51 WHIP while doing so. The Reds bullpen is atrocious and can’t be trusted. Give me the Cardinals on the money line for a Top Play wager.
|07-23-22||Cubs v. Phillies UNDER 8||Top||6-2||Push||0||10 h 40 m||Show|
Cubs (Stroman) @ Phillies (Wheeler) 6:05 PM ET
Play On: Under 8.0 (10*)
The Cubs won 15-2 at Philadelphia last night in a game that easily went over the total. However, the Cubs have played 16-5 to the under in their last 21 after going over in their previous game. Conversely, Philadelphia has played 6-0 to the under in their last 6 following an over during its previous game.
Despite yesterday’s 15-run scoring output, the Cubs have scored 3 runs or fewer in 13 of its last 16 games. This will be the first start of the season made against Philadelphia by Marcus Stroman. The veteran right-hander made 4 versus the Phillies last season and was dominant during those appearances. Stroman posted a combined 1.89 ERA, and all 4 games went under the total. Furthermore, in 5 starts on the road this year, Stroman has compiled an excellent 1.24 ERA/0.79 WHIP. The Cubs bullpen has a cumulative 2.30 ERA/1.14 WHIP throughout its last 7 games.
Philadelphia continues to struggle offensively having scored only 30 runs in their last 10, including 1 game where they scored 10 runs, and that means the Phillies averaged a mere 2.2 runs in the other 9 games. Zack Wheeler has been excellent in 9 home starts this season with an 1.62 ERA/0.84 WHIP and averaged 6.2 innings pitched per outing.
Marcus Stroman has a 1.15 WHIP in 11 starts this season. The Phillies have played 19-6 to the under since the start of last season when facing a National League starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.15 or better. Conversely, Zack Wheeler has a 1.08 WHIP in 17 starts this season. The Cubs have played 9-1 to the under on the road this season when facing a National League starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.15 or better. Give me this game to go under the total for a Top Play wager.
|07-22-22||Astros v. Mariners +114||Top||5-2||Loss||-100||10 h 41 m||Show|
Astros (Urquidy) @ Mariners (Gonzalez) 10:10 PM ET
Play On: Mariners +114 (10*)
The Astros are coming off yesterday’s doubleheader sweep against their bitter rival New York Yankees. Nonetheless, Houston is 0-3 in their last 3 following wins in each of their previous 2 games. Now the Astros head on the road to take on the hottest team in baseball that hasn’t played since last Sunday. Seattle has won 14 consecutive games as well as going a tremendous 22-3 during their previous 25.
Jose Urquidy is 0-3 during his 3 team starts versus Seattle this year with a massive 10.38 ERA and 2.62 WHIP. Urquidy also has a lofty 5.20 ERA in 10 road starts this season.
Marco Gonzalez has been tough in 3 starts versus Houston this season with a 2.56 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. The Mariners bullpen has a superb 2.20 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in their last 7 games. You may be surprised to know that Seattle is 11-7 at home versus Houston since 2020 and includes 4-2 in 2022. Give me the Mariners as a Top Play money line wager.
|07-16-22||Red Sox v. Yankees OVER 8.5||Top||1-14||Win||100||25 h 7 m||Show|
Red Sox (Pivetta) @ Yankees (Taillon) 7:15 PM ET
Play On: Over 8.5 (10*)
Nick Pivetta has been brutal during his last 2 starts while allowing 13 earned runs in 9.0 innings pitched. Pivetta has made 2 starts versus the Yankees this season and recorded a large 10.00 ERA and 1.89 WHIP. Boston has played 6-2 to the over in their last 8 and there was a combined average of 10.6 runs scored per game.
James Taillon has been in poor form over his previous 4 starts with a 8.57 ERA, 2.38 WHIP, and surrendered 7 home runs in just 21.0 innings pitched. Taillon was tagged for 6 earned runs in 5.0 innings in a game at Fenway Park just last week. The usually reliable Yankees bullpen has been shaky of late with a staff 5.72 ERA throughout its last 7 games. The Yankees have played 7-1 to the over during its last 8 games and there was a combined average of 13.1 runs scored per game.
|07-15-22||Mariners -1.5 v. Rangers||Top||8-3||Win||110||7 h 48 m||Show|
Mariners (Ray) @ Texas (Bush) 8:05 PM ET
Play On: Mariners -1.5 (+110) (10*)
Texas will be reeling after blowing a 5-1 leading heading into the 7th inning during last night’s 6-5 loss to Seattle. Conversely, the Mariners have now won 11 straight and 19 of its last 22 games. That successful stretch also has seen Seattle go 10-1 on the road. Since 2020, Seattle has dominated Texas while going 26-10 versus the Rangers.
Michael Bush has made 3 starts this season and went just 1.0 inning on each occasion. So. Texas will attempt to piece this game together with a bullpen that has a sizable staff 6.68 ERA throughout the previous 7 days.
Robbie Ray has been brilliant over his last 6 starts with a 0.91 ERA/0.73 WHIP and averaged 6.6 innings pitched per start. Rays has made 1 start this season and 1 last while posting a 2.89 ERA/0.96 WHIP. The Mariners bullpen has an excellent 1.61 ERA/1.00 WHIP during its previous 7 games. The Mariners are brimming with confidence after winning their last 11 and 19 of its previous 22 games. Give me the Mariners on the run line for a Top Play wager.
|07-12-22||Dodgers v. Cardinals UNDER 9||Top||6-7||Loss||-120||8 h 8 m||Show|
Dodgers (White) @ Cardinals (Liberatore) 7:45 PM ET
Play On: Under 9.0 (10*)
St. Louis has gone under the total in their last 9 and averaged a paltry 1.9 runs scored per game. Additionally, during that 9 game stretch they were shutout 4 times. Mathew Liberatore has made 2 home starts this season and allowed 0 earned runs in 10.0 innings pitched. The Cardinals bullpen has been outstanding over their previous 7 games while posting a 0.84 ERA as a staff.
Mitch White has seen each of his previous 4 starts go under the total and his 1.86 over that stretch was a major reason why. The Dodgers bullpen has a brilliant 0.85 WHIP throughout its previous 7 games. The Dodgers have witnessed only 33.3% of their 42 road games going over the total. Give me this game to go under the total for a Top Play wager.
|07-10-22||Marlins v. Mets UNDER 7||Top||2-0||Win||100||22 h 48 m||Show|
Marlins (Alcantara) @ Mets (Walker) 1:40 PM ET
Play On: Under 7.0 (10*)
Sandy Alcantara is the best kept secret in baseball due to the franchise that he pitches for. Alcantara has posted a brilliant 1.82 ERA and 0.91 ERA in 17 starts this season while averaging a lofty 7.3 innings pitched per outing. Since the start of last season, Alcantara has pitched 15-3 to the under in his starts versus division opponents and there was only a combined average of 5.8 runs scored per game.
Tijuan Walker has pitched 4-1 to the under at home this season with a superb 1.86 ERA. Walker has also pitched 5-0 to the under in day games this season with a spectacular 0.53 ERA and averaged 6.8 innings per outing. Give me this game to go under the total for a Top Play wager.
|07-07-22||Rockies v. Diamondbacks OVER 9.5||Top||4-3||Loss||-100||11 h 11 m||Show|
Rockies (Gomber) @ Diamondbacks (Keuchel) 9:40 PM ET
Play On: Over 9.5 (10*)
Austin Gomber has a horrible 11.12 ERA over his last 5 starts. He doesn’t figure to get much help from a Rockies bullpen that has recorded a 5.26 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, and allowed 5 home runs in 25 2/3 innings pitched throughout their previous 7 games. Colorado is currently a money line favorite of -115 in this matchup. The Rockies have played 13-4 to the over this season as a money line favorite of -110 or greater and there were a combined 13.6 runs scored per game.
Dallas Keuchel has a massive 12.92 ERA and 2.54 WHIP throughout his previous 4 starts. The Diamondbacks bullpen has a lofty 5.87 ERA and 1.57 WHIP over their previous 7 games. Arizona has averaged 5.7 runs scored per game in their last 7. The Diamondbacks have played 7-2-1 to the over in their last 10 and there were a combined 11.6 runs scored per game. Give me this game to go over the total for a Top Play wager.
|07-06-22||Nationals v. Phillies UNDER 8||Top||3-2||Win||100||6 h 25 m||Show|
Nationals (Gray) @ Phillies (Nola) 7:05 PM ET
Play On: Under 8.0 (10*)
Josiah Gray has been very good in 7 road starts this season with a 2.01 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. Despite the Nationals 11-0 loss yesterday that went over the total, they have played 8-4-1 to the under in their last 13 games. Gray has made 1 starts versus Philadelphia this season and pitched 6.0 innings of scoreless baseball.
Aaron Nola has been brilliant during his previous 5 starts while compiling a 1.70 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, and averaging 7.4 innings pitched per outing. The often-criticized Phillies bullpen has been lights out throughout their previous 7 games with a staff 1.17 ERA and 0.87 WHIP. Nola will be facing a Washington team that has been outscored by an alarmingly high 1.6 runs per game this season. Nola has pitched 19-6 (76%) to the under in his career when facing teams that are being outscored by 1.0 or more runs per game on the season. Nola has made 1 start versus Washington in 2022 and pitched 8.0 innings of scoreless baseball. Give me this game to go under the total for a Top Play wager.
|07-05-22||Rays v. Red Sox UNDER 9.5||Top||8-4||Loss||-110||8 h 9 m||Show|
Rays (Springs) @ Red Sox (Pivetta) 7:10 PM ET
Play On: Under 9.5 (10*)
These teams have played each other 4 times this season and each went under the total with a combined average of 5.7 runs scored per game. Boston has played 16-7-2 to the under in division games this season. Conversely, Tampa Bay has played 19-12 to the under in division games this year.
Nick Pivetta has made 4 career starts versus Tampa Bay and all came last season. He was very good during those outing while posting a 2.95 ERA and 3 of those 4 games stayed under the total. Pivetta has been superb during his last 4 starts overall with a 1.93 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. The Rays Jeffrey Spring is 8-2 in his team starts this season with a solid 2.72 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, and a 54:10 strikeout to walk ratio. Give me this game to go under the total for a Top Play.
|07-02-22||White Sox v. Giants UNDER 7||Top||5-3||Loss||-100||4 h 22 m||Show|
White Sox (Cease) @ Giants (Webb) 4:05 PM ET
Play On: Under 7.0 (10*)
The White Sox have played 7-1 to the under in their last 8 games. Dylan Cease has been outstanding over his last 6 starts with a microscopic 0.26 ERA. The White Sox bullpen has a very good 2.00 ERA during its previous 7 games.
Logan Webb has been in excellent form over his last 3 starts with a 0.45 ERA and averaged 6.7 innings pitched per start. The Giants bullpen has a shiny 2.01 ERA throughout their last 7 games. Give me this game to go under the total for a Top Play.
|07-01-22||Marlins v. Nationals -128||Top||6-3||Loss||-128||4 h 1 m||Show|
Marlins (Rogers) @ Nationals (Gray) 6:05 PM ET
Play On: Nationals -128 (10*)
The Marlins Trevon Rogers has shown bad form over his last 3 starts while recording a 6.92 ERA and 2.00 WHIP. Miami is coming off a 4-3 win at St. Louis. The Marlins are 1-6 in their last 7 away games following a road win. Since 4/28, Miami has won 2 consecutive road games just once. The Marlins offense has been anemic over their last 7 while averaging a mere 2.7 runs per game.
Despite their poor season record, Washington has gone a more than respectable 6-3 in their last 9 games. After a terrible start to the season, Josiah Gray has figured it out in recent starts. Specifically speaking, Gray has a brilliant 1.24 ERA and 0.97 WHIP throughout his previous 5 starts. The Washington bullpen has struggled on the road this season. However, at home the Nationals relievers has a solid 3.24 ERA.
Washington is 7.0 games behind Miami in the NL East standings and have lost 8 of 9 versus the Marlins this year. Yet, they’re a money line favorite in this spot. The oddsmakers will never be mistaken as being generous. They’re begging you to take the underdog. Well, I’m not taking the bait. Give me the Nationals on the money line for a 10* Top Play.
|06-30-22||Yankees -117 v. Astros||Top||1-2||Loss||-117||6 h 41 m||Show|
Yankees (Severino) @ Astros (Garcia) 6:10 PM ET
Play On: Yankees -117 (10*)
Luis Garcia has allowed 7 home runs during just 33.0 innings pitched at home this season while posting a lofty 5.28 ERA. That doesn’t bode well for Houston’s chances today considering the Yankees have hit 126 home runs which leads all of MLB. The Astros bullpen has been terrific for the beter part of the first half of this season. Nevertheless, they’ve been slumping over its last 7 games with a staff 5.28 ERA and 1.76 WHIP. During that span, Houston relief pitchers have walked 15 in 15 1/3 innings pitched and surrendered 3 home runs.
Luis Severino has made 4 starts versus Houston since 2018 and had a stellar 2.39 ERA while averaging 6.6 innings pitched per start. The Yankees bullpen has been fantastic over their last 7 games while recording a 0.78 ERA as a staff. The Yankees are 47-12 (.797) this season whenever there was a total of 7.0 to 8.5. Give me the Yankees on the money line for a Top Play.
|06-27-22||Orioles v. Mariners UNDER 7.5||Top||9-2||Loss||-100||10 h 14 m||Show|
Orioles (Wells) @ Mariners (Kirby) 10:10 PM ET
Play On: Under 7.5 (10*)
Tyler Wells is 5-0 during his last 5 team starts with a superb 2.00 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. The Orioles bullpen has been lights out throughout their previous 7 games with a staff 1.11 ERA, 0.74 WHIP, and they converted on all 4 of their save opportunities. Baltimore has gone under the total in each of their last 7 games.
George Kirby has a more than respectable 3.12 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in 9 starts this season. What stands out the most to me is Kirby’s 47:6 strikeout to walk ratio. The Seattle bullpen has a brilliant staff 0.44 ERA and has converted all 3 of its save opportunities throughout their previous 7 games. Give me this game to go under the total for a Top Play.
|06-26-22||Dodgers -107 v. Braves||Top||5-3||Win||100||24 h 50 m||Show|
Dodgers (Gonsolin) @ Braves (Strider) 7:08 PM ET
Play On: Dodgers -107 (10*)
Spence Strider has an uninspiring 5.40 ERA in 5 starts this season. The Braves bullpen has been borderline average over their previous 7 games.
The Dodgers entered this weekend’s action on a 4-game win streak in which they outscored their opponents by a cumulative score of 30-12. The Dodgers are also an outstanding 18-8 during their previous 26 road games. Tony Gonsolin has compiled an excellent 1.58 ERA and 0.82 WHIP in 13 starts this season. Furthermore, the Dodgers have gone 6-0 in their last 6 games when Tony Gonsolin is their starting pitcher. The Dodgers bullpen has posted a stellar 2.42 ERA and 0.96 WHIP throughout its previous 7 games. Give me the Dodgers for a money line Top Play.
|06-24-22||Blue Jays v. Brewers UNDER 8.5||Top||9-4||Loss||-100||7 h 5 m||Show|
Blue Jays (Manoah) @ Brewers (Houser) 8:10 PM ET
Play On: Under 8.5 (10*)
Alek Manoah has pitched 10-3 to the under in his 13 starts this season with an impressive 2.00 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. The Toronto bullpen has been much better on the road than at home. Manoah has also pitched 8-0 to the under in his career which began last season when facing teams with a winning record and there was a mere combined average of 5.4 runs scored per game. The Blue Jays relievers have a combined 3.37 ERA and 1.22 WHIP during away games.
Adrian Houser has been solid in 6 home starts this year with a 2.94 ERA. The Brewers bullpen has been lights out over their previous 10 games. Give me this game to go under the total for a Top Play.
|06-21-22||Blue Jays v. White Sox OVER 9||Top||6-7||Win||100||8 h 4 m||Show|
Blue Jays (Gausman) @ White Sox (Cease) 8:10 PM ET
Play On: Over 9.0 (10*)
Toronto has played 7-1 to the over in their last 8 and there was a combined average of 13.0 runs scored per game. The White Sox have played 8-2-1 to the over during its previous 11. Throughout that stretch, Chicago averaged 7.3 runs scored and 11.1 hits per game. These teams are meeting for the 5th time this season and each of the previous 4 went over with a combined 11.7 runs scored per game.
The performance line of Dylan Cease indicates that he has a 0.00 ERA over his last 3 starts. However, during those outings he walked 11 and allowed 14 hits in 14 1/3 innings pitched which equates to a sizable 1.74 WHIP. My point is that Cease has been extremely lucky and encountered several high-pressure innings in which he was fortunate to escape unharmed. During 4 starts at night this season, Cease has posted a lofty 7.13 ERA and 1.75 WHIP. The White Sox bullpen has a terrible 5.49 ERA and 1.60 WHIP at home this season.
After a terrific start to the season, Kevin Gausman has hit the proverbial wall of late. Gausman is 0-3 in his last 3 starts with a poor 6.75 ERA and atrocious 2.25 WHIP. The Blue Jays bullpen has a concerning 7.16 ERA and allowed 9 home runs in 32 1/3 innings pitched during its last 7 games. Give me this game to go over the total for a Top Play.
|06-19-22||Yankees -117 v. Blue Jays||Top||9-10||Loss||-117||22 h 38 m||Show|
Yankees (Severino) @ Blue Jays (Kikuchi) 1:37 PM ET
Play On: Yankees -117 (10*)
The Blue Jays Kikuchi has been in horrendous form over his last 3 starts with a 10.60 ERA and 2.36 WHIP. Kikuchi has made 3 career home starts versus the Yankees and had a miserable 6.60 ERA during those outings. The Blue Jays bullpen has a sizable 6.43 ERA during its last 7 games with much of that damage attributed to 6 homers allowed 28.0 innings pitched. That’s not good news considering they’ll be facing the top home run hitting team in in baseball who’s hit 104 home runs in their first 64 games. The Blue Jays are 3-9 this season with Kikuchi as their starter and 34-18 with everyone else.
The Yankees headed into this weekend having won 8 straight and 15 of its last 16 games. Luis Severino has been in terrific form over his last 5 starts with a sparkling 1.67 ERA and 0.77 WHIP while averaging 6.5 innings pitched per outing. The Yankees bullpen has been lights out with a 1.57 ERA and 0.84 WHIP over their previous 7 games. Give me the Yankees on the money line for a Top Play wager.
|06-17-22||Brewers v. Reds OVER 9||Top||5-4||Push||0||6 h 55 m||Show|
Brewers (Lauer) @ Reds (Greene) 6:40 PM ET
Play On: Over 9.0 (10*)
These teams have met 6 times already this season and all have gone over the total with a combined average of 15.8 runs scored per game. Cincinnati has played 18-11-1 to the over at home this season with a combined 11.7 runs scored per game. Milwaukee has played 6-2 to the over during its previous 8 and there was a combined average of 10.1 runs scored per game.
Hunter Green has made 2 starts versus Milwaukee this season with a massive 11.25 ERA, 2.25 WHIP, and allowed an alarmingly high 6 home runs in just 8.0 innings pitched. The Reds bullpen has been shaky over its last 7 games with a staff 5.49 ERA and 1.53 WHIP. The Brewers Eric Lauer has displayed poor form throughout his last 3 starts with a 6.60 ERA, 1.80 WHIP, and all 3 games went over the total. Give me this game to go over the total for a Top Play wager.
|06-16-22||Warriors v. Celtics -3.5||Top||103-90||Loss||-110||8 h 34 m||Show|
Warriors @ Celtics 9:00 PM ET
Play On: Celtics -3.5 (10*)
Boston is coming off a disappointing 104-94 loss in Game 5 at Golden State. The Celtics have now lost 2 straight and find themselves on the brink of elimination with a 3-2 series deficit. However, the Celtics haven’t lost 3 consecutive games since 12/29/2021. As a matter of fact they’re 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in their last 4 following 2 consecutive losses and won by an average of 18.3 points per contest. Golden State enters tonight’s game with a season record of 68-35 (.660).
Any NBA Playoff home favorite of 7.0 or less (Celtics) that’s playing in a Game 6, and is coming off a loss in which they scored less than 100 points, versus an opponent (Warriors) with a season record of .636 to .736, resulted in those home favorites going 10-0 SU&ATS since 2004. Those home teams won those 10 contests by a decisive margin of 14.9 points per game. Give me the Celtics minus the points for a Top Play.
|06-13-22||Celtics +4 v. Warriors||Top||94-104||Loss||-110||11 h 41 m||Show|
Celtics @ Warriors 9:00 PM ET
Play On: Celtics +4.0 (10*)
The Celtics missed a golden opportunity to give themselves a commanding 3-1 series lead following their 107-97 home loss to Golden State in Game 4. Nevertheless, Boston has gone a perfect 7-0 SU&ATS during these playoffs following a loss and outscored their opponents by a decisive margin of 15.6 points per game. The Celtics are also a very successful 7-3 SU and 7-2-1 ATS on the road during these 2022 NBA Playoffs. Furthermore, the Celtics are 10-2 ATS this season following a loss by 10 points or more with a sizable +11.1 points per game differential. Give me the Celtics plus the points for a 10* Top Play.
|06-11-22||Diamondbacks v. Phillies -1.5||Top||0-4||Win||100||6 h 12 m||Show|
Diamondbacks (Bumgarner) @ Phillies (Wheeler) 4:10 PM ET
Play On: Phillies -1.5 (-105) (10*)
Madison Bumgarner has a lofty 5.63 ERA over his last 4 starts and allowed 6 home runs in 24.0 innings pitched. That high ratio of home runs allowed is problematic when considering he’ll be facing a Phillies team which has cracked 21 home runs throughout its previous 8 games. The Arizona bullpen has been extremely shaky of late. Since last season, Arizona is 6-30 during the month of June.
The Phillies enter today riding a red-hot 8-game win streak and scored 6 runs or more 7 times. Blake Wheeler has a brilliant 1.73 ERA and 0.94 WHIP during 6 home starts this season. The maligned Phillies bullpen has been terrific recently. Give me the Phillies on the run-line.
|06-10-22||Warriors v. Celtics -3.5||Top||107-97||Loss||-115||7 h 17 m||Show|
Golden State @ Boston 9:00 PM ET
Play On: Boston -3.5 (10*)
Boston is coming off a 116-100 win over Golden State in Game 3 on Wednesday night an easily covered as a 3.5-point home favorite. This sets up a terrific NBA Playoff betting angle which is displayed below.
Any NBA Playoffs home favorite of 5.0 or less that’s playing in Game 4 of a series and is coming off a home favorite ATS win in which they covered by 6.0 to 24.0 points, resulted in those Game 4 home favorites going 14-1 SU&ATS since 2010. If that point-spread was 2.5 to 5.0 points the home favorite improves to 10-0 ATS with an average victory margin of 11.8 points per game. Give me Boston minus the points for a Top Play wager.
|06-09-22||Lightning v. Rangers +113||Top||3-1||Loss||-100||9 h 49 m||Show|
Lightning @ Rangers 8:15 PM ET
Play On: Rangers +113 (10*)
The Rangers return home with the series tied at 2-2 and coming off 2 road losses at Tampa Bay. The Rangers are 10-1 in their last 11 games following 2 consecutive losses. New York is also 8-0 in their last 8 at home during these playoffs and outscored their opponents by an aggregate score of 35-16. Furthermore, they’re 3-0 at home versus Tampa Bay this season and outscored them 13-4 while doing so. During his 7 starts versus Tampa Bay this season, Igor Shesterkin has a brilliant .942 save percentage. That includes a 3-0 record at home versus Tampa Bay with a superb .962 save percentage. Give me the Rangers for a Top Play wager.
|06-08-22||Warriors v. Celtics -3.5||Top||100-116||Win||100||10 h 31 m||Show|
Golden State @ Boston 9:00 PM ET
Play On: Boston -3.5 (10*)
Golden State has been terrific at home during these 2022 NBA Playoffs with a 10-1 record. Nonetheless, they’ve gone a concerning 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS during their last 6 on the road. The Warriors enter today with a season record of 66-34 (.660).
Boston is coming off a 107-88 loss in Game 2 at Golden State which evened this NBA Finals series at 1-1. However, the Celtics have been a resilient bunch during the postseason following a loss while going 6-0 SU&ATS and winning by a decisive average of 15.5 points per game. As a matter of fact, Boston hasn’t lost 2 consecutive games since 3/30. This will be the 1st NBA Finals home game for the Celtics faithful since 2010 and the atmosphere at TD Garden tonight promises to be electric thus giving an additional energy boost to their beloved team.
Any NBA Playoff Game 3 home favorite of 2.5 to 4.5 points (Boston) that’s coming off an away SU&ATS loss in which they failed to cover by 15.0 or less, and it evened the series at 1-1, and is facing an opponent (Golden State) with a win percentage of .690 or less, resulted in those Game 3 home teams going 10-0 SU&ATS since 1996. The home teams won those 10 contests by an average of 10.7 points per game. Give me the Celtics minus the points for my NBA Playoff Game of the Year.
|06-07-22||Tigers v. Pirates UNDER 7||Top||5-3||Loss||-103||9 h 4 m||Show|
Tigers (Skubal) @ Pirates (Quintana) 7:05 PM ET
Play On: Under 7.0 (10*)
The Tigers Tarik Skubal has been superb this season while posting a 1.84 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in 10 starts. Furthermore, Skubal has been dominant throughout his previous 5 starts while compiling a 0.85 ERA and 0.75 WHIP during 32.0 innings pitched. Those 5 games played 4-0-1 to the under. The Tigers are coming off a 5-4 extra inning loss at Yankee Stadium on Sunday. Detroit is an incredible 13-1-2 to the under this season following an over in their previous game. The Tigers have also played 15-4 (79%) to the under this season when facing teams with a losing record. By the way, the Tigers bullpen has an impressive staff 1.80 ERA over their last 7 games.
The Pirates Jose Quintana has been a pleasant surprise thus far in 2022 while recording a sparkling 2.23 ERA in 10 starts. Quintana has pitched 4-0-2 to the under in 6 starts at home with a very good 2.03 ERA. Quintana will be facing a Tigers team that has accounted for a mere 11 stolen bases in 52 games this season. The veteran lefthander has pitched 27-9 (75%) to the under in his career when facing a team that averages 0.35 or less stolen bases per game. The Pirates are averaging just 0.21 per game. The Pirates bullpen has more than held their own throughout is previous 7 games with a 2.54 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. Pittsburgh has witness just 6 of their last 23 games (26%) going over the total. Give me this game to go under the total for a Top Play.
|06-06-22||Avalanche -124 v. Oilers||Top||6-5||Win||100||8 h 6 m||Show|
Colorado @ Edmonton 8:00 PM ET
Play On: Colorado -124 (10*)
Edmonton has been limited to only 4 power play chances in the first 3 games of this series. The Oilers will be without forward Evander Kane who has scored 13 goals during these playoffs and is out via 1-game suspension due to a dangerous boarding penalty in Game 3.
Colorado has dominated the first 3 games of this series while outscoring Edmonton by a cumulative score of 16-8 and they hold a 130-90 advantage in shots on goal. The Avalanche have averaged an extremely impressive 40.6 shots on goal per game during these playoffs. The Avalanche have amassed 34 or more shots on goal in each of their previous 6 games. Colorado is 26-6 this season after having 30 or more shots on goal in each of their previous 5 games and averaged outscoring those opponents by a sizable 1.7 goals per game. Colorado has also won 6 of their last 7 and averaged a robust 4.9 goals scored per game. Give me Colorado on the money line for a 10* Top Play wager.
|06-05-22||Celtics +4.5 v. Warriors||Top||88-107||Loss||-115||29 h 38 m||Show|
Celtics @ Warriors 8:00 PM ET
Play On: Boston +4.5 (10*)
The early betting on this game has heavily sided with the home favorite Golden State Warriors. Yet, this line opened at 4.0 and is currently still at 4.0 at most betting parlors. The sportsbooks have been unfazed by the onslaught of action wagered on the home side while refusing to move off the opening line. Since the Celtics are coming off a 120-108 win in Game 1 on Thursday night, their remains many NBA bettors that still subscribe to the zig-zag theory as being a no brainer concept at playoff time. There is also a consensus opinion out there giving little if any chance the Golden State will lose 2 straight at home, especially after starting the postseason 9-0 in San Francisco, and going 40-11 this season on their home floor all year. Hence, the predictable heavy action on the Warriors. Much ado has been given to the Warriors home court prowess during these playoffs, and rightfully so. Nevertheless, we must not forget that Boston is 8-2 SU and 8-1-1 ATS on the road during the postseason while facing very good opponents in Brooklyn, Milwaukee, and Miami.
These teams are being lauded as being elite defensively. Boston has certainly earned that reputation for their play during regular season action in which they were #1 in many defensive categories. Despite giving up 108 to Golden State in Game 1, the Celtics have held their last 5 playoff opponents to 95.3 points scored per game. Furthermore, Boston has allowed 96 points or fewer in 5 of their previous 10 contests. Conversely, Golden State has allowed 110 points or more in 4 of their previous 5 games.
Boston is coming off a 120-108 win at Golden State on Thursday and did so as a 3.5-point underdog. That defeat dropped the Warriors season record to 65-34 (.657). Any NBA Finals away underdog of 6.0 or less (Boston) that’s coming off an away underdog SU win in which they allowed 110 points or fewer, versus an opponent (Golden State) with a win percentage of .707 or less, resulted in those away underdogs going 4-0 SU&ATS since 1991. The away underdogs not only won all 4 of those contests straight up, but they did so by a decisive margin of 14.5 points per game. The average line in those 4 games was 4.7. Give me the Celtics plus the points for a Top Play wager.
|06-04-22||Avalanche v. Oilers OVER 7||Top||4-2||Loss||-100||7 h 16 m||Show|
Colorado @ Edmonton 8:00 PM ET
Play On: Over 7.0 (10*)
Both teams have some strong recent algorithms going on with totals in recent weeks. Colorado won Game 2 of this series 4-0 on Thursday night. That game easily stayed under the total of 7.0. Colorado has played 6-1 to the over in their last 7 following an under in their previous outing and there were a combined 8.9 goals scored per game. Edmonton has played 7-1 to the over in their last 8 following an under in their previous outing and there was a combined 8.0 goals scored per game.
Colorado has gone a sizzling hot 12-31 (38.7%) on the power during these playoffs. Edmonton isn’t bad themselves having gone 12-41 (29.3%).
Colorado has averaged an enormous 40.4 shots on goal per game during these playoffs. That includes a massive 87 shots on goal in the first 2 games of this series with both ending in regulation time. Colorado has played 4-1 to the over on the road during playoff action with a combined average of 7.8 goals scored per game.
Edmonton was shutout for just a 3rd time this season on Thursday. The Oilers followed those shutout losses in games that went over the total with final scored of 5-4 and 5-3. The Oilers have played 28-18 (61%) to the over at home this season. Give me this game to over the total for a Top Play.
|06-02-22||Celtics +3.5 v. Warriors||Top||120-108||Win||100||28 h 37 m||Show|
Celtics @ Golden State 9:00 PM ET
Play On: Celtics +3.5 (10*)
Golden State is a perfect 9-0 SU at home during these 2022 NBA Playoffs. However, Boston is 7-2 SU and 7-1-1 ATS on the road in this postseason. Golden State has been a heavily wagered on side thus far according to public betting patterns. Afterall, they have a huge edge in NBA Finals experience and will be facing a Celtics team coming off back-to-back series that have gone an entire 7 games. Additionally, Golden State will be playing on an extra 3 days of rest compared to Boston in Game 1. Thus, public perception and betting trends being lopsided toward Golden State.
However, Boston has gone 19-9 ATS as an underdog this season including 5-2 SU and 5-1-1 ATS in the playoffs. The Celtics have also won their last 4 and 6 of its previous 7 played at Golden State. That includes a 22-point win at Golden State on 3/16. The Celtics were tremendous defensively against Miami in the Eastern Conference Finals, and especially so during the last 5 in that series when they held the Heat to 95.6 points scored per game and an atrocious 39.6% shooting. Granted Golden State will present more challenges offensively than Miami. Nonetheless, the Heat are more committed defensively than Golden State. Boston has defeated Brooklyn with Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving, defending world champion Milwaukee, and #1 Eastern Conference seed Miami to reach the Finals. A far tougher path than Golden State has taken. Give me Boston plus the points for a Top Play wager.
|05-31-22||Oilers v. Avalanche OVER 7||Top||6-8||Win||121||7 h 21 m||Show|
Oilers @ Avalanche 8:00 PM ET
Play On: Over 7.0 (10*)
We seldom see an NHL total go to 7.0 or more in this modern era and let alone during the playoffs. However, the statistics fully support the oddsmakers bold move. Both teams put on enormous offensive pressure to their opponents. Colorado averages 35 shots on goal per game while Edmonton is at 34. Each team’s power plays have been extremely efficient during these playoffs.
Edmonton has scored 4 goals or more in 9 of its last 11 games. The last 5 times Edmonton has played it resulted in a combined 9.0 goals scored per game. Conversely, Colorado has scored 3 goals or more in 8 of its previous 10 games. Colorado has gone an outstanding 10-29 (34.5%) on the power play during postseason action. Give me this game to go over the total for a 10* Top Play.
|05-30-22||Rangers +135 v. Hurricanes||Top||6-2||Win||135||7 h 25 m||Show|
Rangers @ Hurricanes 8:00 PM ET
Play On: Rangers +134 (10*)
The opposition to this pick will come from Carolina’s 7-0 home playoff record during these 2022 NHL Playoffs. However, my positive experiences when betting on any Game 7 of a NHL Playoff series started with who I felt was the most reliable or sharp in goal. I don’t think there will be many to disagree with me that Igor Shesterkin has been far better than Antti Raanta. That’s especially so over the past 4 games. During that stretch Shesterkin is 3-1 with a terrific .953 save percentage. Throughout the previous 3 games, Raanta has an uninspiring .889 save percentage. Additionally, the Rangers special teams play has outplayed the Hurricanes and by a wide margin. I look for both of my main points regarding special teams and goaltending to pave the way for a Rangers win tonight. Give me the Rangers on the money line.
|05-29-22||Celtics -2.5 v. Heat||Top||100-96||Win||100||8 h 23 m||Show|
Celtics @ Heat 8:30 PM ET
Play On: Celtics -2.5 (10*)
This will be just the 3rd time since 1991 NBA Playoffs that we have a Game 7 road favorite. That speaks volumes to me. Not only are the Celtics a Game 7 road favorite, but it comes after a Game 6 home loss and them squandering a chance to advance to the NBA Finals. The sportsbooks are dangling the carrot to take the home underdog in this win or go home matchup. I am not taking the bait.
Any NBA Game 7 away team with a point-spread of +3.0 to -3.0 and there was a total of 203.0 or less, resulted in those road teams going 5-0 SU&ATS since 1991. The average margin of victory was 7.0-points per game. Give me Boston minus the points for a Top Play wager.
|05-28-22||Phillies v. Mets -121||Top||2-8||Win||100||7 h 1 m||Show|
Phillies (Eflin) @ Mets (Walker) 7:10 PM ET
Play On: Mets -121 (10*)
Zach Eflin has a horrible 8.36 ERA and 1.79 WHIP in 3 road starts this season. That included an outing at Citi Field in New York on 5/1 when he allowed 5 earned runs on 8 hits during just 4 1/3 innings pitched. The Phillies bullpen has been terrible over its last 7 games with a staff 5.48 ERA and enormous 2.15 WHIP.
By virtue of an 8-6 win last night, the Mets are now 7-3 this season versus Philadelphia and that includes 3-1 at Citi Field. The Mets have been red-hot offensively while averaging 6.6 runs scored per game throughout their previous 7 and recording an excellent team batting average of .308. The Mets are an extremely profitable 24-9 when facing right-handed starting pitchers this season. Tijuan Walkers has a stellar 1.86 ERA and 0.89 WHIP during 4 career home starts versus the Phillies. Walker has also displayed terrific form in his last 3 starts overall while compiling a 1.42 ERA and averaging 6.3 innings pitched per outing. Give me the Mets on the money line for a Top Play.
|05-27-22||Heat v. Celtics OVER 201.5||Top||111-103||Win||100||7 h 11 m||Show|
Heat @ Celtics 8:30 PM ET
Play On: Over 201.5 (10*)
Miami just can’t possibly play any worse offensively than they did in their Games 4 and 5 losses. They were just a combined 60-184 (32.6%) shooting and scored 80 and 82 points. The Heat were embarrassed in a 93-80 home loss to Boston in Game 5 and were outscored 57-39 during 2nd half action. However, Miami has played 11-2 to the over on the road this season following a loss by 10 or more and there was a combined 222.4 points scored per game. Each of the last 2 games in this series went under. Boston has played 5-1 to the over at home this season following 2 consecutive games going under. Play on this game to go over the total for a Top Play wager.
|05-25-22||Celtics v. Heat +2.5||Top||93-80||Loss||-110||9 h 29 m||Show|
Celtics @ Heat 8:30 PM ET
Play On: Miami +2.5 (10*)
Miami is coming off a terrible performance in Game 4 at Boston on Monday which resulted in a 102-82 blowout loss. However, the Heat have gone 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3 at home following a loss and won by a massive average of 27.3 points per game. Despite that lopsided loss, Miami still held Boston to just 39% shooting. Miami is 7-0 SU&ATS in their last 7 following a game in which they held their opponent to less than 40% shooting and won by an average of 15.0 points per game. Furthermore, the Heat have gone 20-1 SU this season following a game in which there was a combined 205 points or less scored. Lastly, Boston has gone a dismal 1-5 SU&ATS in their last 6 following a win and all those contests took place in the playoffs. Give me the Heat plus the small number for a Top Play wager.
|05-24-22||Warriors v. Mavs OVER 215.5||Top||109-119||Win||100||8 h 12 m||Show|
Golden State @ Dallas 9:00 PM ET
Play On: Over 215.5 (10*)
Golden State holds a commanding 3-0 series lead following a 109-100 win at Dallas on Sunday. That contest went under the total of 216.5. Golden State has played 6-1 to the over in their last 7 following a game which went under the total and there was a combined 233.3 points scored per game. Additionally, Golden State scored 121.1 points per game throughout those 7 contests. Conversely, Dallas has averaged 114.0 points scored per contest in their last 15 this season following an outing in which they scored 100 points or fewer.
Since the 1991 NBA Playoffs, visiting teams that hold a 3-0 series lead and there’s a total of 214.0 or greater, resulted in those games playing 8-1 (88.9%) to the over. The average total in those 9 postseason contests was 220.8 and there were a combined 234.3 points scored per game. Play on this game to go over the total for a Top Play.
|05-23-22||Heat v. Celtics UNDER 206.5||Top||82-102||Win||100||7 h 3 m||Show|
Heat @ Celtics 8:30 PM ET
Play On: Under 206.5 (10*)
These teams have a combined 8 players that are listing as questionable for tonight’s game. There’s a good chance that most will play and be less than 100% which is typical at this time of year. More times than not, teams in this situation lose more offensively than defensively.
The first 3 games of this series have all gone over the total. Miami has played 3-0 to the under in their last 3 games following 3 straight overs. Miami is coming off an upset win in Game 3 at Boston. However, Boston has allowed just an average of 97.5 points per game this season immediately following 1 of their 17 straight up favorite losses. Furthermore, the Celtics have allowed only 97.8 points scored per game in their last 4 games immediately following a loss. Give me this game to go under the total for a Top Play.
|05-22-22||Warriors v. Mavs -125||Top||109-100||Loss||-125||30 h 30 m||Show|
Mavericks @ Warriors 9:00 PM ET
Play On: Dallas -125 (10*)
Dallas lost the first 2 games of this series and allowed Golden State to shoot exactly 56.1% on both occasions. However, the Mavericks haven’t lost 3 straight games since 12/7/2021. Additionally, they’ve gone 7-2 SU this season immediately following 2 consecutive losses and that includes 5-0 SU in their last 5. It’s also worth noting that Dallas is 5-0 SU&ATS following 2 straight games in which they allowed opponents to shoot 50% or better and they won by an average of 16.0 points per game. Dallas is currently a money line home favorite of -125. The Mavericks have gone an unblemished 16-0 this season as a money line home favorite of -250 or less. Give me Dallas on the money line for a Top Play wager.
|05-20-22||Mavs +6.5 v. Warriors||Top||117-126||Loss||-110||8 h 39 m||Show|
Mavericks @ Warriors 9:00 PM ET
Play On: Mavericks +6.5 (10*)
Dallas is coming off a terrible 112-87 loss in the series opener on Wednesday. The Mavericks were held to 36% shooting and were dominated on the boards 51-35. However, this is a very resilient Dallas team that’s gone 10-0 SU this season following a loss by 20 points or more and outscored opponents by 13.2 points per game. Dallas is also 7-0 SU&ATS in their last 7 this season after shooting worse than 40% during its previous game and won by 14.9 points per contest. Lastly, the Mavericks are 12-1 SU during their last 13 following a game they scored less than 100 points. Give me the Mavericks plus the points for a Top Play wager.
|05-19-22||Celtics +3.5 v. Heat||Top||127-102||Win||100||9 h 32 m||Show|
Celtics @ Heat 8:30 PM ET
Play On: Boston +3.5 (10*)
Boston is coming off an opening game 118-107 loss at Miami and failed to cover as a 4.0-point underdog. Boston has gone a terrific 10-1 SU in their last 11 following a loss in their previous game, and that includes 3-0 SU&ATS in the playoffs with an average victory margin 14.7 points per contest. The Celtics will also welcome NBA Defensive Player of the Year Marcus Smart back to the lineup after he missed Game 1 due to a foot injury.
Since the 2011 NBA Playoffs, any away underdog of 4.5 or less that’s playing in a Game 2 and is coming off an away underdog ATS loss in which they failed to cover by 20.0-points or less, resulted in those away underdogs going 9-0 ATS. Furthermore, those away underdogs won 8 of those 9 games straight up. Give me Boston plus the points for a Top Play wager.
|05-18-22||Mavs +5 v. Warriors||Top||87-112||Loss||-110||31 h 56 m||Show|
Mavericks @ Warriors 9:00 PM ET
Play On: Mavericks +5.0 (10*)
Dallas has gone 3-1 SU&ATS versus Golden State this season. The Mavericks recently concluded a huge upset win over #1 seed Phoenix in their previous series which was culminated with a decisive 123-90 road win in Game 7. Dallas is 8-0 ATS this season after allowing 90 points or fewer in their previous contest and outscored their opponents by an average of 16.4 points per game. The Mavericks are also 15-3 SU this season following a game in which they allowed 95 points or fewer. During their last 3 games in the Conference Semifinals versus Memphis, Golden State only averaged 102.0 points scored per contest while shooting a poor 41.2% from the field. Give me the Mavericks plus the points for a Top Play wager.
|05-17-22||Celtics +2 v. Heat||Top||107-118||Loss||-105||9 h 37 m||Show|
Celtics @ Heat 8:45 PM ET
Play On: Celtics +2.0 (10*)
The Celtics are 4-1 SU and 4-0-1 ATS on the road thus far in the 2022 NBA Playoffs. Their only blemish came in Game 3 at Milwaukee when they fell by just 2 points after Al Horford’s potential last second game tying tip was waved off and deemed to be just after time had expired. The Celtics have also gone a noteworthy 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 games played in Miami. Boston has an impressive +7.4 point per game differential on the road this season. During their 3 regular season meetings versus Miami, Boston held the Heat to a mere 92.0 points scored per game and 40.5% shooting. During their 7-game series win over Milwaukee, Boston held a potent offensive team like the Bucks to just 97.7 points per contest. Lastly, it’s really odd to seed a #1 seed as just a 2.0-point home favorite in Game 1 of a Conference Finals, not to mention that the Heat are a money line underdog of +150 to win the series. Give me Boston plus the small number for a Top Play wager.
|05-15-22||Bucks v. Celtics -4.5||Top||81-109||Win||100||25 h 55 m||Show|
Bucks @ Celtics 3:30 PM ET
Play On: Celtics -4.5 (10*)
Boston has exhibited exactly why they were #1 in overall defensive efficiency during regular season action. Throughout the first 6 games of this series versus Milwaukee they held the Bucks to 110.5 points scored per game and 42.2% shooting. They will carry the momentum carried over from a convincing 108-95 win in Game 6 at Milwaukee. Boston has already lost twice at home in this series. I deem it to be highly improbable that a team that played so well during the 2nd half of the season will lose 3 at home in a single playoff series and is even more likely to win by a comfortable margin.
The Celtics forced a Game 7 with an impressive 108-95 win at Milwaukee on Thursday night. That win improved the Celtics season record to 58-34 (.630). Any NBA Playoff team that’s a home favorite of 4.0 to 6.5-points in a Game 7, and they possess a win percentage of .626 or better, and they allowed 98 points or fewer in their previous game, resulted in those Game 7 home favorites going 7-0 SU&ATS. The home teams also outscored their 7 opponents by a decisive average of 15.6 points per game. The home team only allowed an average of 88.3 points per game during those 7 contests. Give me the Celtics minus the points for a Top Play wager.
|05-13-22||Celtics +1.5 v. Bucks||Top||108-95||Win||100||27 h 46 m||Show|
Celtics @ Bucks 7:30 PM ET
Play On: Celtics +1.5 (10*)
The defending world champion Milwaukee Bucks are coming off a thrilling 110-107 comeback win at Boston on Wednesday. The Bucks overcame a 14-point early 4th quarter deficit and trailed by 6 with less than 2 minutes left. Yet, they’re just a 1.5-point favorite with a chance to close the series at home and prevent going back to Boston for a Game 7. As I have stated on too many times to remember, “think like a bookmaker”. If it looks too easy, then most times it is when it’s regarding sports betting. This is a textbook example of such.
Any away team (Celtics) with a win percentage of .700 or less that’s playing in a Game 6 during the first 2 rounds of the NBA Playoffs and is coming off a home favorite SU loss in Game 5, resulted in those away teams going 20-2 ATS (91%) since 2000. Those away teams also went 21-3 SU (.875) in those contests as well. Give me Boston plus the small number for a Top Play wager.
|05-12-22||Suns v. Mavs +2||Top||86-113||Win||100||9 h 28 m||Show|
Phoenix @ Dallas 9:30 PM ET
Play On: Dallas +2.0 (10*)
Dallas is coming off a brutal performance during Tuesday night’s 110-80 loss at Phoenix and now finds itself down 3-2 in this series, and on the brink of elimination. However, this is a Mavericks team that’s shown excellent recuperative powers following a lopsided loss. Specifically speaking, Dallas is a perfect 8-0 SU this season following a road loss by 20 points or more and they won by an average of 11.5 points per game. The Mavericks are also 14-1 SU since the start of last season following any loss by 20 points or greater. This is also a Mavericks team which is 33-13 SU (.715) at home this season. Phoenix is just 2-3 on the road in the playoffs after going a terrific 32-9 during regular season away games. Give me Dallas plus the small number for a Top Play.
|05-11-22||Bucks v. Celtics -5||Top||110-107||Loss||-110||9 h 31 m||Show|
Bucks @ Celtics 7:00 PM ET
Play On: Celtics -5.0 (10*)
The Celtics have held one of the better offensive teams in the NBA to 99.5 points scored per game and 42.1% shooting throughout the first 4 games of this series. Furthermore, during the previous 3 games of the series, Milwaukee is a terrible 21-79 (26.6%) from beyond the 3-point line. Additionally, during those 3 contests Boston has outscored Milwaukee in the 4th quarters by a combined score of 103-71. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to draw the conclusion that Milwaukee is obviously wearing down late in game while the Celtics keep getting stronger.
Any NBA home favorite of 6.0 or less (Celtics) that’s play in a Round 2 Game 5 of a playoff series and is coming off an away underdog SU win by 5 points or more, resulted in those reasonably sized home favorites going 8-0 SU&ATS since 1991. Those 8 home favorites won those contests by a decisive average of 20.0 points per game. Give me the Celtics minus the points for a Top Play wager.
|05-10-22||76ers +3 v. Heat||Top||85-120||Loss||-110||7 h 9 m||Show|
76ers @ Heat 7:30 PM ET
Play On: 76ers +3.0 (10*)
The 76ers are obviously a different team when Joel Embiid is healthy and able to play. They lost the first 2 games of this series by sizable margins. However, Embiid returned in Game 3 and Philadelphia went 2-0 SU&ATS since. Additionally, Jimmy Butler of Miami accounted for 73 of Miami’s 187 points (39%) in those 2 losses, and the 76ers prevented any other Heat players from putting up any big numbers. That recent defensive strategy has worked, and l look for it to be continued in Game 5. Give me the 76ers plus the points for a Top Play wager.
|05-09-22||Celtics +1.5 v. Bucks||Top||116-108||Win||100||7 h 53 m||Show|
Celtics @ Bucks 7:30 PM ET
Play On: Boston +1.5 (10*)
Down 2-1 in the series, I look for Boston to be playing with an extremely high degree of desperation and urgency. Boston is coming off a 103-10 loss at Milwaukee in Game 3. Nonetheless, the Celtics are 7-1 SU&ATS in their last 8 following a loss. Their only blemish to that recent team trend was a loss at Miami in a game that Boston was without its 2 top scorers Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum. Furthermore, Boston shot a miserable 36% in that Game 3 loss on Saturday. The Celtics are an unscathed 6-0 SU&ATS during their last 6 following a game in which they shot less than 40% and won by a decisive margin of 14.8 points per contest. Give me the Celtics on the money line.
|05-07-22||Grizzlies v. Warriors OVER 225||Top||112-142||Win||100||11 h 46 m||Show|
Memphis @ Golden State 8:30 PM ET
Play On: Over 225.0 (10*)
Just as I expected, the public has overreacted to Game 2 easily going under the total of 227.5 during a Memphis 106-101 win. However, the oddsmakers were undeterred by that result and made just a slight adjust to an opening total of 226.5 for Game 3. Let’s not forget, Golden State won the series opener 117-116 in a game that was extremely entertaining to watch. Furthermore, the pace of the first 2 games of the series was lightning fast with a combined 188 and 186 field goal attempts which is extremely high by even NBA standards. Lastly, Memphis has played 16-5 to the over this season whenever there was a total of 220.0 to 229.5. Give me this game to go over the total for a Top Play wager.