I fully expected to see an early overreaction with bettors after Dallas staved off elimination walloped Boston 122-84 in Game 4. As of Saturday, the source I use shows 72% of individual bets and 65% of money wagered going the way of the underdogs Mavericks. Since the start of the 2021-2022 NBA season, the Celtics are 8-0 SU and 7-0-1 ATS immediately following a loss by 20 points or more. Their average margin of victory during those 8 contests came by a substantial 16.0 points per game.

Furthermore, since 207, NBA Finals home favorites coming off an away loss in which they scored 89 points or fewer went 4-0 SU&ATS with an average victory margin of 25.0 points per game. Additionally. Since 2013, NBA Finals home favorites of 5.5 or more that are coming off an away loss in which they scored fewer than 100 points have gone 8-0 SU&ATS. The average line during those 8 contests was 8.4 and those home favorites won by an average of 21.8 points scored per game. Give me the Celtics minus points.

Mavericks @ Celtics 8:30 PM ET

Play On: Celtics -6.5

Boston has owned Dallas the past 2 seasons while going 4-0 SU&ATS against them and the average margin of victory came by an impressive 19.7 points per game. The average line in those 4 contests was Boston -5.0 which is in the near vicinity of where today’s line is. It’s also woth noting. The Celtics are 6-0 SU this season when playing on 3 or more days rest and outscored their opponents by an average of 14.0 points per game.

Any NBA Finals Game 1 home team has gone 17-2 SU and 16-3 ATS since 2004. If those home teams were a favorite of 4.0 or more and won their Conference Finals series in 4 or 5 games they improve 7-0 SU&ATS since 2004 and with an average victory margin of 13.0 points per game. The average line in those 7 contests was 6.4 which is almost identical to the current number at the time of this writing. Give me the Celtics minus points for a Top Play wager.

Reds (Greene) @ Cubs (Steele) 7:15 PM ET

Play On: Reds +122

This will be Justin Steele’s 1st start of the season versus the Reds. He made 2 starts last season versus Cincinnati with a terrible 8.38 ERA while doing so and both came at Wrigley Field. During his last 2 home starts which came against Atlanta and Pittsburgh, Steele allowed 10 earned runs in just 11.0 innings of work. The Cubs bullpen has been awful over their last 7 games with a 9.16 ERA/1.77 WHIP. Chcago enters today having lost 8 of their last 9.

Hunter Greene has been in exceptional form over his last 3 starts while recording a 2.33 ERA/0.93 WHIP and averaged 6.4 innings pitched per outing. Green also has an impressive 1.85 ERA/0.86 WHIP in 4 road starts this season and averaged 6.1 innings pitched per appearance. During his lone start at Wrigley Field last season Green pitched 6.0 innings of no-hit and scoreless baseball. Give me the Reds for a Top Play money line underdog wager.

Timberwolves @ Mavericks 8:00 PM ET

Play On: Timberwolves +2.5

This series can just as easily be 2-0 in favor of Minnesota instead of the other way around. Those 2 games were decided by a combined 4 points. Additionally, this is a Timberwolves team that’s a very good 31-16 on the road this season. Furthermore, Minnesota has gone an extremely profitable 5-1 SU&ATS in in their last 6 as an away underdog and outscored their opponents by an average of 8.2 points per game.

Any NBA Playoffs away underdog of 2.0 to 4.5 that down 2-0 in a series and they’re facing a #5 seed or higher has gone 9-0 ATS since 2006. Those underdogs within the previously mentioned point-spread parameter also went 8-1 SU in those contests and outscored the favorites by an average of 8.8 points per game. Give me the Timberwolves plus points.

Mavericks @ Timberwolves 8:30 PM ET

Pick: Mavericks +4.5

Dallas has gone 5-0 ATS and 4-1 SU in their last 5 as an underdog of 4.0 or greater. The Mavericks overcame a halftime deficit in their series clinching Game 6 home win over Oklahoma City. The Mavericks are 5-0 SU in their last 5 away games this season following a win in their previous game during which they trailed at the half. Furthermore, they won those 5 contests by an enormous average of 21.0 points per game.

Minnesota is coming off a thrilling Game 7 road win over the defending world champion Denver Nuggets on Sunday night. They trailed that contest by 15 points at the half. That final result marked the biggest comeback from a Game 7 halftime deficit in the history of the NBA Playoffs. However, Minnesota is 0-2 SU&ATS this season following a win in which they erased a double-digit halftime deficit and they lost by an average of 11.5 points per game.

Since the 2010 NBA Playoffs, home favorites of 5.0 or less like Minnesota that are coming off a Game 7 win and open the following series at home, resulting in them going 5-9 SU and 4-10 ATS. If they were coming off a Game 7 away win then they’re 0-3 SU&ATS. Additionally, Game 1 home favorites of 5.5 or less that are coming off a Game 7 win are 1-7 SU&ATS since 2009. Tightening that betting angle up even more, if those home favorites of 5.5 or less in that previously described exact betting situation are facing an opponent like Dallas that clinched their previous series in either 6 or 7 games, they fell to 0-4 SU&ATS since 2010 and lost by an average of 8.2 points per contest. Give me the Mavericks plus points.

Thunder @ Mavericks 8:00 PM ET

Game# 531-532

Play On: Under 209.5

Oklahoma City is coming off a disappointing 104-92 home loss in Game 5 and now finds themselves on the brink of elimination with a 3-2 series deficit. The Thunder have played 6-1 to the under this season whenever the total was 217.0 or less. That includes 5-0 to the under in the last 5 in that role with all those games taking place during these 2024 NBA Playoffs. Those 5 contests had an average total of 213.0 and there was a combined 195.0 points scored per game. OKC has also played 4-0 to the under in their away games this postseason and there was a combined 194.8 points per game. Furthermore, the Thunder has held 6 of their 9 postseason opponents to 96 points or fewer and 105 or less on 8 of those 9 occasions.

Dallas has held their opponents to 101 points or fewer in 8 of their last 10 games with all taking place in the postseason. AS a matter of fact, Dallas has played 21-8 to the under in their last 29 games and you can make a strong case for them being the most improved team defensively in the NBA during that stretch. Dallas has played 4-1 to the under this season when the total was 217.0 or less and their previous game stayed under the number. There was a combined average of 199.8 points scored per game during those 5 contests. If Dallas has a current major flaw it’s been their free throw shooting during these NBA Playoffs. They’ve made a lousy 69.7% of their free throw attempts during this postseason, and that includes 65.5% in this series versus OKC.

The last 3 games of this series have played under and with a combined average of 199.3 points scored per game. Any NBA Playoffs home team playing in a Game 6 with a 3-2 series lead with a total between 202.0 to 217.0, and they went under the total while allowing 90 points or more in their previous game, resulted in those contests playing 6-0 to the under since 2013. The average total was 211.5 and there was a combined 194.3 points scored per game. Give me this game to go under the total.

Knicks @ Pacers 8:30 PM ET

Game#529-530

Play On: Pacers -5.5

The Pacers are coming off an embarrassing 121-91 loss in Game 5 at New York. Indiana is a perfect 4-0 SU&ATS at home this season after losing by 20 or more in their previous contest, and their average margin of victory came by 19.3 points per game. The Pacers are also 4-0 SU&ATS this season after scoring 101 or less in their previous contest and won by an average of 15.0 points per game. Since the start of last season, Indiana is 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS following a game in which they scored 99 points or fewer and won by an average of 11.4 points per game. Give me the Pacers minus points as a Top Play.

Knicks @ Pacers 7:00 PM ET

Game# 501-502

Play On: Pacers -6.5

The Pacers are coming off a 130-121 loss in Game 2 at New York on Wednesday night. Indiana has gone 10-0 SU and 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 this season following a game in which they scored 130 points or more. Indiana is also 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 at home immediately following an away loss in their previous game. The average line for Indiana in those 4 games was -7.4 and they won by a substantial margin of 24.2 points per game.

Conversely, the Knicks are 0-3 SU&ATS this season following a game in which they allowed 130 points or more and they lost by an average of 10.0 points per game. We must also keep in mind; the Knicks will be a shorthanded team in this one with 3 key players out for the year and O.G Anunoby listed as questionable after suffering a hamstring in Wednesday’s 1st half. They also loss center Mitchell Robinson for the season after he suffered ankle injury in Game 1 of this series. Not to mention Bojan Bogdanovich who was injured during the Knicks opening round win over Philadelphia and is ruled out for the season. Not to mention Jalen Brunson missing the entire 2nd quarter in Wednesday’s win while receiving treatment for n injured food and NBA all-star Julius Randle was lost for the year during their last month of regular season action.

Any NBA Playoffs Game 3 home favorite -4.0 to -9.5 that’s coming off away SU&ATS underdog losses in the first 2 games of the series, and they allowed 112 points or more in their previous game, resulted in those Game 3 home favorites going 10-0 SU and 8-1-1 ATS since 2003. Give me Indiana minus points.

Mavericks @ Clippers 10:00 PM ET

Game# 505-506

Play On: Mavericks -2.5

The Mavericks are coming off a 116-11 Game 4 home favorite upset loss to the Clippers. The Clippers are 0-5 SU&ATS this season as an underdog of 6.5 or less following an away win and lost by an average of 13.0 points per game. They've also gone a dismal 1-5 SU&ATS this season following a SU underdog win in their previous game.

 Dallas has gone an extremely profitable 20-6 ATS this season as a road favorite, and it improves to 3-0 SU&ATS following a home loss with an average victory margin of 10.0 points per game. The Mavericks are 4-0 SU&ATS this season as a favorite following a SU favorite loss in their previous game.

This is a very rare NBA postseason betting situation that favors the road favorite in a very small sample size. Nonetheless, any NBA Playoffs away favorite in a Game 5 with the series tied 2-2 that's coming off a home loss has gone 3-0 SU&ATS since 2004. Those 3 road favorites won by an average of 11.4 points per game. Give me the Mavericks minus points.

Cavaliers @ Magic 7:00 PM ET

Game# 525-526

Play On: Magic -125 (ML)

The Cleveland Cavaliers force 13 turnovers per game this season and that’s significant. Orland is 17-2 SU at home this season when facing an opponent who forces 13 turnovers or fewer per contest and with a sizable point per game differential of +14.3. Orlando has also gone a perfect 9-0 SU&ATS in their last 9 conference home games and with an enormous average victory margin 17.7 points per contest. Conversely, Cleveland is an abysmal 0-5 SU&ATS this season as an away underdog of 3.5 or less and lost by an average of 14.6 points per contest.

Since the 2003 NBA Playoffs, any Game 3 home favorite of 1.5 or greater that’s coming off SU&ATS losses in the first 2 games of the series have gone 33-8 SU (80.5%). Give me the Magic as a money line favorite.

Pacers @ Bucks 8:30 PM ET

Game# 511-512

Play On: Over 222.0

Since the start of last season, Indiana has played 8-0 to the over when there’s a total of 234.5 or less and they scored 105 points or fewer in their previous game. Those 8 contests averaged a combined 245.0 points scored per game. Despite Game 1 having just a combined 203 points scored, the 6 meetings between these division rivals this season has produced an average of 245.5 points scored per game. Milwaukee has seen their last 4 go over the total after allowing 105 points or fewer in their previous contest and there was a combined average of 242.2 points scored per game.

Cardinals (Gibson) @ Diamondbacks (Nelson) 8:10 ET

Game# 905-906

Play On: Cardinals -104

Ryne Nelson has made 2 starts for Arizona so far and had a horrible 8.21 ERA/1.83 WHIP while lasting only a combined 7 2/3 innings. That’s even more alarming when you consider the Arizona bullpen has a shaky staff 5.64 ERA/1.79 WHIP over their previous 7 games. Nelson has 1 career start versus St. Louis and that took place last season. It was certainly an uninspiring performance as he allowed 5 earned runs, 8 hits, and walked 3 in 6.0 innings. Despite having a subpar 6-8 record. Arizona is a +1.0 run per game differential. However, that’s a bit deceiving when considering they’re 5-2 versus Colorado (4-10) with a +2.0 run per game differential and 1-6 against everyone else.

Kyle Gibson has gone 6-0 in his teams starts on the road since last season when facing teams like Arizona who have a +0.5 or greater run per game differential. Gibson has made 4 starts versus the Diamondbacks since 2020 and posted a stellar 2.35 ERA/1.17 WHIP during those outings. The St. Louis bullpen has been solid over their last 7 games with a staff 3.33 ERA/1.26 WHIP. Give me the Cardinals on the money line.

Pelicans @ Kings 10:00 PM ET

Game# 551-552

Play On: Pelicans +1.5

The New Orleans Pelicans have dominated Sacramento this season while going 4-0 SU&ATS in their head-to-head meeting and with an enormous average victory margin of 21.3 points per game. The Pelicans have been better on the road than at home this season. New Orleans is currently 26-14 (.650) on the road and 21-18 (.538) on their home floor. The Kings enter tonight’s game having lost 3 of their last 4 and 5 of the previous 8 contests. Although Sacramento is averaging 116.5 points scored per game this season, they’ve recently struggled in that category of late. The Kings have scored 109 points or fewer in 10 of their last 11 games. Sacramento has gone a mediocre 7-6 SU in their last 13 at home. Give me the Pelicans.

Purdue vs. Connecticut 9:20 PM ET

Game# 675-676

Play On: Under 145.5

UConn has seen all 5 of their NCAA Tournament games go under the total with a combined average of 139.4 points scored per game. They were terrific defensively during those contests allowing a mere 57.2 points per contests and holding their opponents to 34.7% shooting. The Huskies also allowed just 14 free throw attempts per game during those 5 wins.

Purdue has played 4-1 to the under in the NCAA Tournament and with a combined average of 140.0 points scored per game. The Boilermakers held those 5 opponents to just 60.2 points per game, 39.4% shooting, and permitted them to get to the free throw line an average of only 10 times per game.

Neither one of these teams prefers a fast tempo game. UConn ranks 328th out of 362 Division 1 teams with regards to offensive tempo while Purdue is 211th in that same category. This will be the 4th time since the 2015 NCAA Tournament when two #1 seeds will square off against one another in the championship game. The previous 3 all went under the total and with a combined average of 141.0 points scored per game. Give me this game to go under the total.

 NC State vs. Purdue 6:09 PM ET

Game# 673-674

Play On: Purdue -9.0

The Cinderella NC State Wolfpack have been a nice story. They were just 17-14 during regular season action. However, once the postseason began, they went 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS which enabled them to reach this point. That includes 7-0 SU&ATS as an underdog. Yet, they find themselves as a 9.0-point underdog in this Final 4 matchup versus #1 seed Purdue. Here’s the caveat, since the 2017 NCAA Tournament, any #1 seed that was a favorite of between 7.0 to 14.0 in a Regional Final, National Semifinal, or Championship game have gone 5-0 SU&ATS with a substantial average victory margin of 18.8 points per contest. Although taking the red-hot sizable underdog is seemingly a very alluring option, recent history has shown that by doing so it’s been a losing proposition. Furthermore, from an analytical standpoint, Purdue has sizable advantages in rebounding, 3-point shooting percentage, and assist to field goal made percentage. Give me Purdue minus points.

Knicks @ Bulls 8:10 PM ET

Game# 545-546

Play On: Bulls -119 (ML)

Chicago is coming off a 1 13-101 loss to Atlanta in a game they closed as a 2.0-point home favorite. The Bulls are a perfect 7-0 this season when coming off a SU favorite loss by 10 or more and won by an average of 7.2 points per contest. Chicago is also 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 this season at home immediately following a home favorite SU loss and with an average victory margin of 10.2 points per contest. The Knicks are coming off yesterday’s home win over Sacramento. New York is 1-4 SU&ATS this season as a road underdog playing with no rest and were outscored by an average of 9.6 points per game. Give me the Bulls.

NC State vs. Duke 5:05 PM ET

Game# 657-658

Play On: NC State +7.5

Duke is coming off a physically and emotionally draining 54-51 win over #1 seed Houston on Friday night. I know it’s the NCAA Tournament and the sense of urgency rises to a whole other level. However, I find it hard to believe that the physical and emotional toll that Duke needed to pull off their upset over Houston has at the very least a small carryover into Sunday’s Regional Final. Besides the fact they’re playing a red-hot NC State team that’s gone 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS this postseason and includes 6-0 SU&ATS as an underdog. Give me NC State plus points.

Tennessee vs. Purdue 2:20 PM ET

Game# 655-656

Play On: Under 148.5

These teams met in the Maui Invitational earlier this season and Purdue walked away with a 71-67 win. That contest went over the total despite Purdue shooting 35% and Tennessee 33% from the floor. However, there was a unordinary 78 free throw attempts combined in that contests which resulted in 50 points scored. It’s highly improbable we will see anywhere near that volume in this contest.

Tennessee is ranked 3rd nationally in defensive efficiency and Purdue is 7th. Tennessee is coming off an 82-75 win over Creighton on Friday. The Volunteers have played 12-3 to the under in away or neutral site games since the start of last season after scoring 80 points or more in their previous contest. Those 15 contests averaged only a combined 132.1 points scored per game. Purdue has committed 10 turnovers or fewer in each of their 3 NCAA Tournament games. Since the start of last season, the Boilermakers have played 7-0 to the under after committing 11 turnovers or fewer in each of their previous 3 games and there was only a combined average of 131.7 points scored per contest. Purdue has allowed 12.0 free throw attempts per game thus far in the NCAA Tournament and Tennessee 14.7 per contest. Tennessee has shot less than 40% in 5 of their last 7 games. Give me this game to go under the total.

Clemson vs. Alabama 8:49 PM ET

Game# 653-654

Play On: Clemson +3.5

I’ve mentioned numerous times on camera and in text about not overlooking free throws as part of your process when handicapping a game. Alabama is #319 nationally in free throw attempts allowed because of their aggressive defensive nature in an attempt to speed up the pace of games to their liking. Conversely, Clemson is #9 nationally in free throw percentage while making a terrific 78.7% of their attempts this season. Alabama has allowed 27.3 free throw attempts per contest throughout their first 3 NCAA Tournament games.

Alabama is coming off an 89-87 win over #1 seed North Carolina in the Sweet 16. However, since the start of last season, the Crimson Tide has gone a dismal 0-5 SU when coming off a win by 6 points or fewer in an away or neutral site game and lost by 15.2 points per contest. On the other side of the ledger, Clemson has gone 5-0 SU this season in an away or neutral side game when facing opponents like Alabama who average 62 or more field goal attempts per game and with a sizable average victory margin of 19.4 points per outing. Clemson has also gone 7-0 SU this season when in non-conference games when facing teams that made the 2024 NCAA Tournament. Clemson has been outstanding defensively in their first 3 NCAA Tournament game while holding opponents to a mere 34.3% shooting.

Lastly, Alabama is a team that shoots a high volume of 3-point shots. Specifically speaking, the Crimson Tide has seen 46.3% of their field goal attempts this season come from 3-point territory. However, Clemson has held their 3 NCAA Tournament opponents to 14-75 (18.3%) from beyond the 3-point line. Give me Clemson plus points.

Illinois vs. Iowa State 10:10 PM ET

Game# 631-632

Play On: Illinois +1.5

Illinois is #1 nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency and Iowa State is #1 defensively. So, something must be given. The overused cliche is defense wins championships and there’s data to back up that statement. However, this is an exception to the rule in my mind. The Cyclones are just 69% from the free throw line and that’s a concern when you get this far in the NCAA Tournament and are involved in what is seemingly an even matchup such as this one. Additionally, as good as Iowa State is defensively, they allow opponents to get to the free throw line frequently and rank #230 nationally in the category. Illinois is a solid free throw shooting team at 74.2% and is in the top 20% of college basketball teams when it comes to free throw attempts. Iowa State is one of the best teams in the country when it relates to forcing turnovers. Nevertheless, Illinois has committed turnovers on just 15% of their offensive possessions this season which is very good.

I very seldom refer to players when giving my handicapping analysis. However, Illinois guard Terrance Shannon will be unequivocally the best player on the floor tonight. He’s not only a deadly 3-point shooter but can beat defenders off the dribble and gets fouled quite frequently when doing so. Since the start of the Big Ten Tournament, Shannon is averaging 31.6 points per game, made 41.7% of his 3-point shot attempts, and has a excellent 87.9% conversion rate on free throws. Keep in mind, this is the same Terrance Shannon Jr. that was a key contributor as a freshman on a Texas Tech team that lost the 2020 national championship team in overtime. Give me Illinois.

Grand Canyon vs. Alabama 7:10 PM ET

Game# 839-840

Play On: Grand Canyon +6.0

If you watched Grand Canyon (30-4) upset nationally ranked St. Mary’s on Friday in Spokane, Washington then you know the Antelopes had overwhelming supports from their fanbase inside the building. That won’t change on Sunday and will serve as a huge emotional lift for the underdog. Grand Canyon was 28-36 (77.8%) from the free throw line in that win. Grand Canyon is #3 nationally in getting to the free throw line and has made 75.4% of those attempts. Conversely, Alabama is #320 nationally in free throw attempts allowed with much attributed to their aggressive defensive style. Grand Canyon’s interior defense was sensational versus St. Mary’s evidenced by 9 blocked shots. Alabama is #347 in the country in getting their shot attempts blocked. Another advantage Grand Canyon will have in on the offensive glass where they rank #32 nationally. On the other hand, Alabama is #236 in defensive rebounding. Give me Grand Canyon plus points.

Duquesne vs. Illinois 8:40 PM ET

Game# 797-798

Play On: Illinois -9.5

Duquesne is coming off a huge upset win as a 9.5-point underdog on Thursday versus #6 seed BYU of the vaunted Big 12 Conference. The #11 seed Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament champion is now 16-3 in their last 19 and that includes a current 9-game win streak. However, Illinois presents a whole different challenge than BYU. The Illini are #2 nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency and are a very good offensive rebounding team. If Duquesne has a weakness defensively it’s their rebounding. Duquesne ranks #222 nationally in defensive rebounding while Illinois is #16 on the offensive glass. Illinois will also have the best player on the court in this matchup Terrance Shannon Jr. who is a huge difference maker. During his 3 games in the Big 10 Tournament and in the NCAA Round of 64 versus Morehead State during an 85-69 win, Shannon has averaged 30.5 points per contest. Lastly, Illinois has gone a perfect 6-0 SU&ATS in their last 6 following a win by 15 or more and as a favorite of 5.0 or greater.  The average margin of victory in those 6 wins and covers came by a substantial average of 28.3 points per game. Give me Illinois minus points.

Virginia Tech @ Ohio State 7:00 PM ET

Game# 805-806

Play On: Ohio State -3.5

Virginia Tech has gone an abysmal 2-9 SU&ATS in true road games this season, and that includes 1-8 SU&ATS as an underdog. The Hokies have played terrible defense down the season’s final stretch while allowing opponents to shoot 50% or better in 7 of their last 10 games. Conversely, during their previous 5 contests, Ohio State has averaged 81.8 points scored per game, shot 49.5% from the field and made an excellent 43.0% of their 3-point shot attempts. For whatever reason the Buckeyes have been playing great basketball since their head coach was fired while going 6-1 SU&ATS during those contests. The Buckeyes are also 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 at home while outscoring their opponents by 9.0 points per game. Give me Ohio State minus points.

New Mexico vs. San Diego State 6:00 PM ET

Game# 623-624

Play On: New Mexico +2.5

As we’ve witnessed throughout this year’s conference tournament action, teams on the bubble for the NCAA Tournament has succeeded win either winning or covering as an underdog more times than not. Such has been the case for New Mexico. The Lobos have played with a high degree of urgency and desperation during their 3 wins in the MWC Tournament. They’ve turned in superb performances on each occasion and surprisingly have been extremely good defensively, which hasn’t been their forte this season. The Lobos allowed 61.0 points per game while holding Air Force, Boise State, and Colorado State to just 34.0% shooting. Despite of that, Joe Lunardi has New Mexico as the last team in with Missouri Valley Conference regular season champ Indiana State and Virginia lurking behind. So, I fully expect their desperation and urgency to be at a high level in the championship game and not leave it up to the NCAA Tournament committee whether or not they’ll be dancing next week. Furthermore, the Lobos are 6-0 SU&ATS this season on a neutral court with an average victory margin of 18.3 points per game.

San Diego State needed overtime in the quarterfinal round to knock off UNLV and then won decisively over #1 seed Utah State by 16. However, the Aztecs are 0-4 SU&ATS in their last 4 immediately following 2 consecutive wins and were outscored by 7.7 points per game. San Diego State is projected to be a #5 seed in the NCAA Tournament, so they have no uncertainty in that regard. Give me New Mexico plus points.

Ohio State vs. Illinois 6:30 PM ET

Game# 811-812

Play On: Illinois -5.0

Yes, Ohio State has responded well since the firing of their head coach Chris Holtman. The Buckeyes are 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5. However, just 1 of those 5 teams had a winning record in league play and that was Nebraska at 12-8. The other 4 teams had a combined record of 30-50 in Nig 10 regular season action.

I truly believe that Illinois is a legitimate contender to reach the Final Four. They finished 14-6 in the Big 10 and was second only to #3 ranked Purdue (28-3). Illinois easily won their only regular season games against Ohio State this season 87-75 and easily covered as a 3.0-point road favorite. Give me Illinois for a top-rated wager.

Bucks @ Kings 10:10 PM ET

Game# 557-558

Play On: Over 235.0

These teams have gone over the total in their last 22 head-to-head meetings and did so by an average of 15.6 points per game. Since the start of the 2020-2021 season, they’ve met 7 times and produced a combined average of 257.4 points per game, and that includes a 143-142 Bucks win in Milwaukee on 1/14/2024.

After going through a 6-game win streak in which they allowed 106 points or fewer on each occasion, Milwaukee has dropped 2 of their last 3 while allowing 122.7 points per contest. During that recent 3-game stretch Milwaukee opponents have combined to shoot a combined 50.9%. The Bucks offensive play has very rarely been an issue this season based on them averaging 120.9 points per contest to this point.

Sacramento is coming off a 112-104 home loss to Houston that went under the total of 234.0. However, the Kings have played 5-0 to the over in their last 5 immediately following an under and there was a combined average of 245.8 points scored per game. The Kings shot 45.6% in that loss to Houston. Sacramento has shot 50% or better in 6 straight games immediately after a contest in which they shot less than 50%. Throughout their previous 6 contests, the Kings have averaged 95.3 field goal attempts per game which equates to an extremely fast pace even by NBA standards. Give me this game to go over the total.

Pacers @ Magic 6:10 PM ET

Game# 517-518

Play On: Magic -125

Orlando is coming off road loss at New York. However, the Magic have gone 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 following a loss and won by a decisive margin of 17.2 points per game. Orlando is also an extremely profitable 22-3 this season as a money line favorite. Orlando has shot 52.7% or better from the field in 5 of their last 6 games. The Magic have also allowed 109 points or fewer in 10 consecutive games. Conversely, Indiana has allowed 110 points or more in each of their previous 13 and their opponents have shot 50% or better during 17 of their last 26 games. As a matter of fact, Indiana is allowing 121.8 points per game this season. Conversely, Orlando is 15-2 SU this season versus opponents that allow an average of 220.0 points or more per game. Give me the Magic minus points.

Utah @ Oregon 7:00 PM ET

Game# 699-700

Play On: Over 151.0

This has all the earmarks of a high scoring affair. Utah has played 3-0 to the over in their last 3 away with a combined 156.7 points scored per game. During their last 3 games overall, Utah averaged a lofty 87.7 points scored per contest and shooting 50.5% from the floor. They also played at a very fast tempo during those 3 contests while averaging 65 field goal attempts per game. Utah defeated Oregon at home earlier this season 80-77 in a game that sailed over the total of 149.5.

Oregon has scored 75 points or more and shot 49% or better in 4 of their last 5 games. The Ducks have played 4-0 to the over in their last 4 when the total was 151.0 or greater and an average of 167.5 points were scored per game. Oregon has played 7-1 to the over in their last 8 this season when facing an opponent like Utah who averages 77.0 or more points per game with a combined 160.9 points scored a game. Give me this game to go over the total.

California @ Stanford 11:00 PM ET

Game# 769-770

Play On: Over 154.5

Stanford has played 13-2 to the over at home this season with a combined 160.1 points being scored per game. California is coming off an 88-59 loss at Utah which stayed under the total of 154.5. However, the Bears have played 3-0 to the over in their last 3 following an under during their previous contest with a combined average of 158.3 points scored per outing. Stanford is #2 in PAC-12 Conference play while making 38.9% of their 3-point shot attempts. On a negative note, the Cardinal have lost 6 in a row and allowed 81.8 points per game while doing so. Conversely, California has allowed 80 points or more in each of their previous 4 conference away games. Stanford is #3 and California #4 when it comes to offensive tempo during conference action. Give me this game to go over the total.

Spurs @ Rockets 8:10 PM ET

Game# 525-526

Play On: Rockets -7.5

Houston is 7-0 SU&ATS this season as a home favorite of between 3.5 to 9.5 and with an average victory margin of 178.6 points per game. San Antonio are coming off 2 consecutive wins for just the 4th time this season while defeating Oklahoma City 132-118 and Indiana 117-105. However, the Spurs are an abysmal 0-9 SU&ATS this season as an away underdog of between 3.5 to 9.5 and were outscored by a massive average of 23.0 points per game. San Antonio is 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS this season immediately following 2 wins in a row. Give me Houston minus points. Give me the Rockets minus points.

Gonzaga @ St. Mary’s 10:00 PM ET

Game# 801-802

Play On: Over 141.0

St. Mary’s has scored 70 points or more in their last 6 abd 12 of their previous 13 games. The Gaels have played 5-0 to the over in their last 5 at home with a combined average of 148.4 points scored per game. During their last 5 outings, St. Mary’s has scored 84.0 points per game while shooting a sizzling hot 53.0% and they made an exceptional 45.0% of their 3-point shot attempts.

Gonzaga has scored 86 points or more in each of their previous 7 contests. During their previous 5 contests, Gonzaga has scored 91.6 points per game, shot 58.6% from the field, and made an excellent 41.6% of their 3-point shots. Gonzaga is #4 nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency and #1 during conference play. Give me this game to go over the total for a Top Play wager.

Trailblazers @ Heat 10:10 PM ET

Game# 571-572

Play On: Heat -7.0

Portland is coming off a 93-80 home loss to Charlotte. The Trailblazers have gone an abysmal 0-7 SU&ATS this season as an underdog of 13.5 or less and after game in which they scored 95 points or fewer. The lost those 7 contests by an enormous margin of 26.6 points per game. Portland is also 0-6 SU&ATS in their last 6 contests and lost by an average of 14.0 points per game.

Miami is coming off last night’s win at Sacramento. The Heat are 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 with all coming as a road underdog. Additionally, the heat have gone 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 as a favorite and won by 13.7 points per game. I have little concern about Miami playing with no rest this evening since they’re recently coming off the all-star break. Give me the Heat minus points.

Kentucky @ Mississippi State 7:00 PM ET

Game# 621-622

Play On: Mississippi State -3.5

I’m of the opinion they’re giving us the winner in this matchup with unranked Mississippi State being a favorite over 6th ranked Kentucky. The sportsbooks are begging you to take the ranked road underdog in this spot. The Bulldogs will be playing with revenge stemming from a 90-77 loss at Kentucky earlier this season. That was a contest in which Kentucky was awarded 17 more free throw attempts than Mississippi State and the Wildcats outscored the Bulldogs by 17 points from the charity stripe. That type of free throw shooting disparity is unlikely to occur again. Kentucky has gone just 2-4 SU in their last 6 conference away games. Conversely, Mississippi State enter this contest on a 5-game win streak and that includes going 4-0 ATS if they were favorite by 9.5 or less with an average victory margin of 17.3 points per game.  Give me Mississippi State minus points.

Minnesota @ Nebraska 6:30 PM ET

Game# 857-858

Play On: Nebraska -6.5

I know Minnesota has been playing very well in recent weeks. However, they’re still just 2-5 SU on the road.  I also can’t ignore the fact that Nebraska is a perfect 8-0 SU&ATS during conference home game this season. The Cornhuskers will also be out to revenge a 76-65 loss at Minnesota earlier this season while outscoring their opponents by an average of 13.2 points per game. Give me Nebraska minus points.

George Mason @ Loyola-Chicago 4:30 PM ET

Game# 701-702

Play On: Loyola-Chicago -3.0

George Mason is coming off their first ever win in program history over a Top 25 opponents when they knocked off #16 Daton 74-70 the last time out. This has all the potential for a letdown spot for George Mason given the emotional high carried away from and during that win. It’s only human nature that George Mason won’t come close to the intensity level and mental sharpness it had during that upset win. Additionally, George Mason is 1-4 in their last 5 conference away games. Although Dayton and Richmond have made plenty of headlines this season in the Atlantic 10 Conference, Loyola-Chicago is a sneaky good team. Loyola enters Saturday’s contest having won 6 in a row, 9 of their last 10, and 13 of their previous 15 contests. Furthermore, tjhey already won at George Mason 85-79 earlier this season. Give me Loyola-Chicago minus points for a Top Play wager.

Florida @ Alabama 7:00 PM ET

Game# 679-680

Play On: Alabama -9.0

Florida has gone 7-1 in their last 8 games which included wins over #14 Auburn and #17 Kentucky. Yet, they find themselves as a heavy underdog in this contest and for good reason in my opinion. Alabama is 13-1 SU &12-2 ATS at home this season and outscored their opponents by an enormous average of 26.6 points per game. Furthermore, they’ve gone 6-0 SU&ATS in conference home games this season with a substantial average victory margin of 21.1 points per game. Alabama is #1 in SEC play when it comes to adjusted offensive efficiency. Conversely, Florida has allowed 80.2 points per game in SEC action this season. Additionally, Alabama is a much better defensive team than they’re given credit for and especially when considering the torrid offensive pace they play at. Give me Alabama minus points.

Maryland @ Wisconsin 9:00 PM ET

Game# 635-636

Play On: Wisconsin -7.0

Maryland has gone 1-4 SY&ATS in their last 5 which includes 0-3 ATS as an underdog. The Terrapins are a very good defensive team but can’t put the ball in the ocean offensively. During conference action, Marland has shot 39.8% from the field and made a poor 28.3% of their 3-point shot attempts.

This can be perceived to be a heavy number to cover for a Wisconsin team which is 1-5 SU & 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games. However, the Badgers are 11-2 SU at home this season with their lone defeats coming against #5 Tennessee and #3 Purdue.  Additionally, Wisconsin is 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS in conference home games and that includes 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS as a favorite. Give me Wisconsin minus points.

Youngstown State @ Clevland State 3:00 PM ET

Game# 669-670

Play On: Over 151.5

Since the start of last season, these Horizon League in-state rivals have played 3 times, and each went over the total with an average combined score of 159.3 points scored per game. That includes a 94-69 Youngstown State win earlier this season in a game that soared over the total of 146.0. YSU has played 4-0-1 to the over in their last 5 contests with a combined 167.6 points scored per game. The Penguins have allowed 81.0 points per game in their last 5 and opponents made 39.0% of their 3-point shots. Cleveland State has gone 11-2 at home this and averaged 80.2 points scored per game. Cleveland State allows the most free throw attempts of any Horizon League team during conference play. That will help us significantly since YSU is #1 in the Horizon League from the free throw line while connecting on an excellent 79.1% of their attempts.

Warriors @ Nets 7:40 PM ET

Game# 565-566

Play On: Nets +1.5

This is an attractive spot for the home team in this matchup as I see and diagnose it. This will be the Warriors 3rd road game in 4-days and they wasted a 62-point epic performance at Atlanta on Saturday while falling to the Hawks 141-131. Golden State is now 6-11 SU in their last 17 overall and 3-9 SU during their previous 12 road games. Since the start of last season, the Warriors are a dismal 5-18 SU on the road immediately following a road loss.

Contrary to their opponent tonight, Brooklyn is a well-rested team that will be playing just their 3rd game in 7 days. Additionally, Brooklyn isn’t road weary considering 5 of their last 6 have been played at home. The Nets have won 3 of their last 4. During their previous 3 outings Brooklyn has scored 134.3 points per game and shot a red-hot 51.0%. Brooklyn has also made a stellar 39.1% of their 3-point shot attempts over their previous 5 games. All that is good news for Nets backers when considering Golden State has allowed 125.6 points per game over their last 5 while opponents knocked down 37.1% of their 3-point shots against them. Give me the Nets on the money line.

Raptors @ Thunder 7:10 PM ET

Game# 553-554

Play On: Over 238.0

The Raptors have played 8-0 to the over in their last 8 on the road whenever the number was 230.0 or greater. Those 8 contests had an average total of 236.7 and there was a combined 253.9 points scored per game. Toronto has also played 6-0 to the over in their last 6 non-conference road contests and there was a combined 254.0 points scored per game.

This will be the finale of a 4-game homestand for the Thunder. Since the start of last season, Oklahoma City has played 10-1 to the over when playing 4 or more consecutive home games in a row and there was a combined 245.1 points scored per contest. The Thunder averages 122.3 points scored per game while shooting 50.7% and making 38.1% of their 3-point shots at home this season. They’ll be facing a Raptors team that has allowed 120.7 points per game while their opponents shot a combined 51.7% throughout their previous 6 games.

Kings @ Bulls 8:10 PM ET

Game# 533-534

Play On: Bulls -130

Sacramento will be playing their 6th road game in 10 days. That includes playing last night and 3 in the last 4 days. The Kings are coming off last night’s 133-122 win at Indiana which makes them 4-1 on this current trip. However, they’ll be facing a Bulls team playing on 2-days rest and coming off a 117-110 at Charlotte on Wednesday. The Bulls have gone 3-0 SU&ATS this season in non-conference games following a road win and with an average victory margin of 16.7 points per contest. Conversely, the Kings are 0-4 SU&ATS this season playing with no rest and when the point-spread is between +3.5 and -3.5 while being outscored by an enormous margin of 20.4 points per game. Give me the Bulls plus points.

Florida @ Kentucky 8:00 PM ET

Game# 709-710

Play On: Kentucky -5.5

Florida is an uninspiring 1-3 SU&ATS in true road games this season and allowed 84.3 points per contest while doing so. The Gators rank next to last in adjusted defensive efficiency during SEC play. That’s not good news when considering that Kentucky is #9 nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency and #4 in 3-point shooting while converting on an impressive 40.2% of their long-distance attempts. Kentucky doesn’t beat themselves which is proven by them turning the ball over on just 13.1% of their offensive possessions. The Wildcats are 10-1 at home this season which includes winning their last 4 by 15.3 points per contest and they averaged 95.3 points scored per game. Give me Kentucky minus points.

76ers @ Warriors 10:10 PM ET

Game# 563-564

Play On: Over 235.5

Golden State has played 7-0 to the over in their last 7 whenever the total was 227.0 or greater and there was a combined average of 259.6 points scored per game. Philadelphia has gone 4-0 to the over in their last 4 when the total was 227.0 or greater and there was a combined 249.5 points scored per game. The 76ers have seen a combined 56 free throw attempts per contest throughout their previous 5 games, and that included 30 per outing by themselves. Golden State has allowed 29 free throw attempts per contest over their previous 5 games. That should provide us with a plethora of scoring opportunities with the clock stopped in this matchup. Give me this game to go over the total.

Lakers @ Rockets 8:10 PM ET

Game# 543-544

Play On: Over 232.5

Houston has played 7-1 to the over in their previous 8 when the total was 227.0 or greater and there was a combined average of 243.1 points scored per game. The Rockets are coming off a 106-104 loss at Brooklyn in a game that went under the total 222.0. Houston has played 4-0 to the over in their last 4 following an under in their previous contest and there was a combined average of 253.0 points scored per game. Houston has averaged an extremely high 98 field goal attempts per contest and scored 121.4 points per game throughout their previous 5 outings.

The Lakers have played 13-0 to the over in their last 13 on the road when the total was 227.0 or greater and there was a combined average of 247.9 points scored per game. Los Angeles has gone over the total in each of their last 5 games overall and with a combined 258.2 points scored per game. Give me this game to go over the total.

Lions @ 49ers 6:30 PM ET

Game# 321-322

Play On: 49ers -7.0

The difference in this game will be the 49ers passing game against a Detroit defense which has allowed 319 yards or more through the air in each of their previous 5 games. Additionally, the 49ers defense is allowing just 17.7 points and 305.4 yards per game this season which ranks among the league’s best in both categories. Lastly, the 49ers are the more experienced team in big game situations such as these and Detroit takes to the road for a first time this postseason. Give me the 49ers plus points.

Props

·       Brock Purdy over 276.5 passing yards.

·       49ers over 30.5 points scored.

·       Chrisian McCaffery under 84.5 (-115) rushing yards.

·       Chrisian McCaffery over 36.5 (-115) receiving yards.

Ohio State @ Northwestern 3:30 PM ET

Game# 811-812

Play On: Northwestern -2.5

Ohio State is 0-4 this season in true away games and all those games came against fellow Big 10 Conference teams. After starting the season 11-2, Ohio State has also dropped 4 of the last 5 overall which includes losses to 3 unranked teams. Northwestern has gone 10-1 at home this season which includes quality wins over #2 Purdue (18-2) and #10 Illinois (14-5). Furthermore, Northwestern is #2 in Big 10 play in 3-point accuracy while making 41.4% of those long-distance shot. Conversely, Ohio State ranks 13th during Big 10 conference play in 3-point defense while allowing opponents to convert an alarmingly high 40.6% of their attempts. Give me Northwestern minus points for a Top Play wager.

St. Joseph’s @ St. Bonaventure 8:30 PM ET

Game# 887-888

Play On: Over 144.0

St. Bonaventure has gone over the total in each of their last 5 at home with a combined average of 153.2 points scored per game. The Bonnies have scored 89 points or more and shot 55% or better in 4 of those last 5 at home. St. Joe’s has gone over the total in all 6 of their true road games this season with a combined 163.0 points scored per game. Give me this game to go over the total.

Suns @ Mavericks 7:30 PM ET

Game# 539-540

Play On: Suns -135

The Suns are coming off a narrow 115-113 home win over Chicago and they overcame a 15-point halftime deficit while doing so. That victory improved their current win streak to 6 games. That includes 3-0 SU&ATS on the road with an average margin of victory coming by 14.3 points per game. During their current win streak, the Suns have scored 121.3 points per game and shot a sizzling hot 53.5% from the field. Conversely, Dallas has allowed 121.3 points per game and opponents shot a combined 49.7% throughout their previous 6 contests. Give me the Suns as a money line favorite.

Xavier @ Creighton 8:30 PM ET

Game# 645-646

Play On: Over 148.0

Xavier has played 4-0 to the over in their last 4 and there was a combined average of 161.0 points scored per game. The Musketeers have been playing a an extremely fast office pace over their last 7 contests which is evidenced by them having 63 or more field goal attempts on each occasion. Xavier has scored 74 points or more in 8 of their last 10 games. Creighton is averaging an impressive 87.8 points scored per game while shooting 51.2% and includes going 36% from 3-point range at home this season. Give me this game to go over the total.

Chiefs @ Bills 6:30 PM ET

Game# 317-318

Play On: Bills -2.5 (10*)

Despite all the success that Patrick Mahomes has had in his career postseason career, this will be his first start on the road in the AFC Wildcard Round, AFC Divisional Round, and AFC Championship Game. Technically Mahomes does have 1 postseason road start and came versus Tampa Bay in the Super Bowl which the Chiefs lost.

Buffalo is 8-1 at home this season while outscoring their opponents by an average of 14.7 points per game. Under current head coach Sean McDermott, the Bills are 5-1 SU in their postseason home games. Additionally, this will be just the 3rd time in that stretch they’ll be a home favorite of 4.5 or less. The previous 2 time they beat Baltimore 17-3 in 2021 and New England 47-17 in 2022. The Bills enter this contest on a 6-game win streak while 4 of those 6 opponents finished with regular season action with a winning record. The Bills suffered 6 losses this season, and they all came by 6 points or fewer. So, a strong case can be made for them being an even better team than their current 12-6 record indicates. It’s been well documented how Buffalo will be shorthanded due to several injuries to starters and most notable on the defensive side of the board. However, they do have quality depth on the defensive side of the ball. Buffalo began their current win streak with a 20-17 win at Kansas City.

The Bills are coming off a 31-17 home win over Pittsburgh last week, and they covered as a 10.0-point favorite. The current total on today’s game is 45.5. This sets up a 100% betting angle that has remained unscathed since 2009. NFL postseason home favorites of 7.0 or less with a total that’s 51.0 or less and they’re coming off a home favorite ATS win in which they covered by 10.0 or less, resulted in those postseason home favorites going 6-0 ATS since 2009. The average line in those 6 contests was 4.9 and those home favorites won by an average of 13.7 points per game. Give me the Bills minus points.

Bulls @ Raptors 7:30 PM ET

Game# 521-522

Play On: Bulls -125

Toronto is coming off last night’s 121-97 home blowout win over Miami. However, the Raptors are 3-12 SU this season following a win. Furthermore, Toronto has lost their last 3 at home following a win and were outscored by a sizable margin of 14.3 points per game.

Conversely, the Bulls are 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3 when playing on 1 or more days rest and versus an opponent who played the day before. Chicago won those 3 contests by an average of 9.0 points per game. The Bulls are coming off a loss. Nonetheless, Chicago has gone 6-1 SU in their last 7 games immediately after a loss. Give me the Bulls as a money line favorite.

Kings @ Suns 9:10 PM ET

Game# 571-572

Play On: Kings +4.5

The Suns are a disappointing 21-18 this season and that includes an extremely uninspiring 11-11 at home. Phoenix will be facing an opponent tonight in the Sacramento Kings averaging 118.2 points scored per game. That’s a significant statistic since Phoenix has gone an abysmal 0-10 ATS this season when facing teams that average 116.0 or more points scored per game and were outscored by 10.8 points per contest. Phoenix is only forcing 12 turnovers per game this season. That’s also noteworthy since Sacramento is 9-1 ATS this season versus teams that force an average of 13 turnovers or less per game and they outscored those opponents by 6.0 points per contest. Lastly, dating back to last season, Sacramento is 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 versus Phoenix while outscoring them by an average of 10.0 points per game. Give me the Kings plus the points.

Dolphins @ Chiefs 8:15 PM ET

Game# 143-144

Play On: Chiefs -4.5

Miami enters the postseason mentally deflated. They lost their last 2 games of regular season action which included last Sunday night’s home loss to Buffalo that dropped them from a #2 to #6 seed. Putting things into perspective, they blew a 3.0 game lead over Buffalo in the last 5 games of the season and choked away a chance to end Buffalo’s 3-year reign as AFC East Division champions.  It’s also well documented the recent struggle that Miami has endured when playing teams with a winning record since early last season. To make matters worse, they’ll be facing a Kansas City team which is 8-1 SU & 6-3 ATS in their last 9 postseason home games and that includes 3-0 SU&ATS as a favorite of 6.5 or less.

NFL postseason home favorites of 5.0 or less with a win percentage of .625 or better versus an opponent coming off 2 consecutive losses, resulted in those home favorites going 7-0 SU&ATS since 1996. The average margin of victory in those 7 contests came by an average of 18.9 points per game. Give me the Chiefs minus points.

Temple @ North Texas 6:00 PM ET

Game# 739-740

Play On: North Texas -11.0

Temple started the season 3-0 and has gone 5-8 since. Those struggles have occurred despite playing against a strength of schedule that ranks #217 according to KenPom. The Owls have also suffered bad losses at the hands of #235 Columbia, #262 Old Domion, #176 East Carolina, and #147 South Florida.  On the other hand, North Texas is 7-0 at home this season with an average victory margin of 20.0 points per game. The Mean Green is a very frustrating team to play against since they plat at one of the slowest offensive paces in the country and are an excellent defensive team as well. Give me North Texas minus points.

Celtics @ Bucks 7:40 PM ET

Game# 571-572

Play On: Celtics +4.5

The Bucks are an impressive 16-3 at home this season. However, they lost their last 2 in Milwaukee to Utah 132-116 and Indiana 122-113. As a matter of fact, the Bucks are 1-4 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last 5 overall.

The Celtics find themselves as an underdog for just the 2nd time all season. Since the start of last season, Boston is 9-1 ATS and 6-4 SU as an underdog. All 4 of those SU losses came by 6 points or fewer and by a combined 15 points. Their lone time as an underdog this season, they were +3.0 at Sacramento and won 144-119. Give me the Celtics plus points.

Washington vs. Michigan 7:30 PM ET

Game# 287-288

Play On: Michigan -4.5

The Wolverines defense will be the difference in this contest and will be the best stop unit that Washington’s offense will have faced all season. The Huskies star quarterback Michael Pennix is adept when it comes to getting rid of the ball quickly and with pinpoint accuracy. Those traits have given opposing secondaries fits this season. However, the Wolverines defense is extremely good and will force Pennix to hang on to the ball a lot more than he’s been used to and in turn will make Michigan’s stellar front 7 a relevant factor. The Wolverines have allowed 24 points or fewer in all 14 games this season and 15 or less on 11 separate occasions. Additionally, Michigan has also allowed less than 200 yards passing in 12 of 14 games. Conversely, Washington has allowed 31 points or more 6 times this season. Here’s another thing that favors Michigan. They’re +16 in the turnover margin this season while Washington is only +1. This is the Wolverines year and they’ll be out to make an emphatic statement tonight. Give me Michigan minus points.

Bills @ Dolphins 8:20 PM ET

Game# 455-456

Play On: Bills -2.5

Buffalo has had Miami’s number in recent season while winning 10 of the last 11 meetings. Their lone loss in that sequence was 21-19 on the road in September of 2022. The Bills deserved a better fate in that defeat when considering they outgained Miami 497-212. Additionally, Josh Allen’s career passing and rushing statistics are far and away the best against Miami than any other NFL team. Buffalo has been as healthy as they’ve been in quite some time, while Miami has sustained many key injuries heading into this matchup. Give me Buffalo minus points.

Connecticut @ Butler 6:30 PM ET

Game# 877-878

Play On: Butler +6.0

This will be just the 3rd true road game for UConn this season and they lost to Kansas by 4 and Seton Hall by 15 in the first 2. Butler is 10-4 but it’s worth noting that they’re 8-0 at home and considering their a sizable underdog in this spot that element can’t be ignored. Butler has also played the tougher schedule to this point compared to UConn which may not result in winning this game outright but certainly bodes well for them to be competitive throughout and stay inside the number. Give me Butler plus points.

Indiana @ Nebraska 9:00 PM ET

Game# 705-706

Play On: Nebraska -5.0

Nebraska is 11-2 and every good as their record indicates. The Cornhuskers have quality depth and are a very experienced team. Indiana is one of the youngest teams in the Big 10 Conference. It seems odd to see Nebraska as a favorite over Indiana in basketball. With that in mind, it most likely will produce a fair share of underdog bets just based on the perception of reach programs history on the hardwood. Give me Nebraska minus points.

Texas vs. Washington 8:45 PM ET

Game# 279-280

Play On: Texas -3.5

This is one of those situations where many bettors will be lured into taking the underdog Washington Huskies. After all, Washington enters this matchup 13-0 and is the higher ranked team versus the favorite Texas Longhorns (12-1). Nonetheless, I’m not taking the bait. Keep in mind, Washington’s last 9 wins have all come by 10 points or fewer. So, it’s not like they’ve been dominating the opposition. Both offenses will be able to move the ball. But I like Texas’ defense much better than that of Washington’s stop unit. Despite their undefeated record, the Washington defense allowed 500 yards or more on 3 separate occasions this season. Give me Texas minus points.

Bengals @ Chiefs 4:25 PM ET

Game# 127-128

Play On: Bengals +6.5

The Chiefs are 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 as a favorite of 8.5 or less. Furthermore, Kansas City is 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 at home, and 0-3 SU&ATS at home this season versus opponents that currently own a winning record. The Chiefs are also a concerning -10 turnover margin throughout their previous 8 games.

Since taking over at starting quarterback for an injured Joe Burrow, Jale Browning has made 5 starts and averaged 303.0 yards passing per game, threw for 7 touchdowns, and ran for 2 scores. That’s a respectable job done from a backup quarterback. The Bengals are coming off last week’s extremely disappointing 34-11 loss at Pittsburgh which halted their 3-game win streak.  Cincinnati is 8-7 and still contending for a Wildcard berth. Here’s the odd thing about the Bengals record this season, they’re a dismal 0-5 versus division opponents, and an impressive 8-2 in their other 10 games. Since the start of the 2021-2022 season, Cincinnati is a very profitable 9-1 ATS as a road underdog of between 3.5 to 9.5-points, and they won 7 of those 10 contests SU. Give me the Bengals plus points.

49ers @ Commanders 1:00 PM ET

Game# 123-124

Play On: Over 49.5

The Commanders figure to get a much-needed spark with veteran quarterback Jacoby Brissett replacing struggling Sam Howell. Even with Howell, Washington has gone over the total in their last 4 at home with a combined average of 59.7 points scored per contest. On a negative note, the Commanders have allowed 34.7 points and 407.3 yards per game throughout their previous 6 contests.

The 49ers are one of if not the best NFL offenses when healthy like they are right now. Throughout their previous 4 on the road, the 49ers averaged 38.0 points scored and 419.0 yards gained per game. They’ve also gone over the total in their last 3 on the road with a combined average of 59.7 points scored per game. The 49ers have a very talented group, but over their previous 3 contests they’re allowing an uninspiring 26.0 points and 367.7 yards per game. Give me this game to go over the total.

Knicks @ Magic 7:10 PM ET

Game# 549-550

Play On: Knicks -119 (ML)

No analysis on today’s games due to time restrictions.

Texas A& M vs. Oklahoma State 9:00 PM ET

Game# 247-248

Play On: Oklahoma State -3.5

Texas A&M will be playing with an interim coaching staff while Mike Elko waits in the wings to take over as head coach. The A&M roster has been decimated by opt outs and players entering the transfer portal. Notably starting quarterback Max Johnson and 5 defensive starters that logged 365 plays or more this season. That’s not good news when facing an Oklahoma State team that made it to the Big 12 Conference Championship game and scored 39 points or more in 5 of their last 8 games. Additionally, the Cowboys roster was hardly dented by the transfer portal and opt outs in comparison to the rest of this season’s bowl teams.

Ravens @ 49ers 8:15 PM ET

Game# 481-482

Play On: 49ers -6.0

The 49ers are 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 as a favorite of 13.0 or less while outscoring those opponents by 22.0 points per game and with an average line of -6.3. As a matter of fact, San Francisco will enter tonight’s matchup on a 6-game win streak. Since the 2021-2022 season began, San Francisco is 8-0 SU & 7-1 ATS at home after winning 4 or more games in a row and with an average victory margin of 19.3 points per game. Baltimore and Lamar Jackson have put together an excellent winning track record against NFC teams. Buth this 49ers squad is a whole different animal. Give me the 49ers minus points.

Ravens @ Jaguars 8:20 PM ET

Game# 329-330

Play On: Over 41.5

The weather conditions won’t be ideal, but it won’t automatically make this a low scoring affair. The Ravens offense has been humming which is evidenced by them scoring 31 points or more in 6 of their last 7 games. The Ravens are the #1 running team in the NFL so far this season and are averaging 157.1 yards per game. Baltimore is also #4 in scoring offense at 27.2 points per game. The Ravens have played 5-2 to the over during their previous 7 contests and with a combined average of 52.1 points scored per game.

Jacksonville enters this week #11 in total offense, #9 in passing offense, and #9 in scoring offense. Additionally, throughout their previous 4 contests the Jags have averaged 29.0 points scored and 375.8 yards gained per game. Jacksonville has also allowed 26.8 yards and 380.8 yards per contest throughout their previous 5 games. Jacksonville has played 4-0 to the over at home this season when the number was 44.0 or less and there was a combined average of 54.8 points scored per game. Give me this game to go over the total.

Eagles @ Cowboys 8:20 PM ET

Game# 127-128

Play On: Cowboys -3.5

Let’s start with this. The Cowboys are averaging 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS at home while averaging a massive 4141.0 points scored and 438.0 yards gained per game. Conversely, the Eagles have allowed 29.4 points and 433.0 yards per game throughout their previous 4 contests. The stout Dallas defense had an uncharacteristically bad game during last week’s 41-35 home win over Seattle in which they allowed the Seahawks to rack up 406 yards of total offense. Since the start of the 2021-2022 season Dallas has gone 10-0 SU&ATS after a contest in which they allowed 400 yards or more and won by an average of 17.5 points per game. During that identical time span, Dallas went 7-0 SU&ATS following a game in which they allowed 30 points or more and won by an average of 15.1 points per contest and held their opponents to a mere 14.9 points scored per outing. The Cowboys will also be playing with revenge stemming from a 28-23 loss at Philadelphia earlier this season. Dallas deserved a better fate in that contest when considering they outgained the Eagles in total yards by a margin of 406-292. Give me the Cowboys minus points.

Oregon vs. Washington 8:00 PM ET

Game# 305-306

Play On: Oregon -9.5

This line jumped right off the screen at me last Sunday night. Oregon opened as a 7.5-point favorite, and it was quickly moved to 9.5 with the game being played on a neutral field in Las Vegas. Keep in mind, the Ducks sustained their only loss of the year earlier this season in a 36-33 heartbreaking setback at Washington. The Ducks missed a 38-yard field goal with no time left in that contest and deserved a better fate when considering they outgained Washington is that contest by a wide margin of 126 yards while also not committing a turnover. The Huskies are 12-0 but have won their last 8 games by just 10 points or fewer. Washington’s defense and received acclaim for being so good in the 4th quarter of games down the stretch. However, the Huskies stop unit has allowed 500 yards or more on 3 occasions this season which included 545 versus Oregon. Oregon is a terrific 9-2 ATS as a favorite this season. Oregon has amassed 500 yards or more of total offense in 9 of their 12 games. Furthermore, over their previous 4 contests the Ducks are averaging 44.7 points scored and 562.0 yards gained per game.

Since 1993, favorites of 3.0 or more in conference championship games that are playing with revenge went 7-0 SU&ATS. The favorites average line in those contests was -9.1 and their margin of victory came by 18.9 points per game. All 7 wins came by 14 points or greater. Give me Oregon minus points as my College Football Conference Championship Game of the Year.

Ravens @ Chargers 8:20 PM ET

Game# 271-272

Play On: Chargers +3.0

The Ravens are coming off a 34-20 home win over the Bengals. However, that win came at a heavy expense as they lost star tight end Mark Andrews to an injury that will keep him out for an indefinite period. Additionally, the Ravens are 0-4 SU&ATS over the past 3 seasons following a division win.

The Chargers are coming off a 23-20 loss at Green Bay as a 3.0-point favorite. That dropped their season record to an extremely disappointing 4-6. Nonetheless, it’s a deceiving 4-6 when considering they’ve now suffered 5 losses by 3 points or fewer. Throughout the past 3 seasons, the Chargers are 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS after Game 2 and following a SU favorite loss.

Since the start of the 2018-2019 NFL season, underdogs of 5.5 or less who are playing after Game 8 that possess a losing record and are coming off a SU favorite loss, and they’re facing an opponent with a win percentage of .333 or better, resulted in those underdogs going a spotless 11-0 ATS. Those underdogs of 5.5 or less also won 10 of those 11 contests SU. Give me the Chargers plus points as my Sunday NFL Top Play.

Ohio State @ Michigan 12:00 PM ET

Game# 141-142

Play On: Michigan -3.0

Since the start of the 2021 season, Michigan has gone a perfect 21-0 SU at home. That includes 3-0 SU&ATS as an underdog or favorite of 7.0 or less with an average victory margin of 19.7 points per game. Michigan has beaten Ohio State in emphatic fashion during the last 2 meetings by scores of 45-23 and 42-27. Michigan went without a turnover committed in 7 of 11 games this season and are a +11 turnover margin for the year. Ohio State has forced only 10 turnovers in their first 11 games. So, there’s very little chance that Michigan will be themselves on Saturday. The total in this contest is currently 46.5. Since the start of last season, Michigan is 6-0 SU&ATS whenever the total was 42.5 to 49.0 and with an average victory margin of 32.6 points per game. Give me Michigan minus points.

Nuggets @ Rockets 8:10 PM ET

Game# 567-568

Play On: Rockets +3.0

The defending NBA champion Denver Nuggets are just 3-4 SU and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games. Denver is a perfect 7-0 at home this season, but they’re an uninspiring 3-5 SU on the road and includes a dreadful 1-7 ATS in those contests.

Since losing their home opener, Houston has gone an unscathed 7-0 SU&ATS at home with 4 of those coming as an underdog. Their average margin of victory in those contests came by a decisive 16.0 points per game. Give me the Rockets plus points.

Commanders @ Cowboys 4:30 PM ET

Game# 107-108

Play On: Over 48.5

Washington has played 4-0 to the over this season when the number is 42.5 or greater and there was a combined 62.3 points scored per game. During their previous 3 games, Washington has averaged 24.0 points scored and 415.8 yards gained per contest. They’ll be facing a Cowboys team which has averaged 40.0 points scored and 446.5 yards gained per game at home this season. Both teams have played 3-1 to the over in their last 4 games with averaged combined scores of 55.8 points scored in contests involving Dallas and 52.3 in those Washington outings.

Dallas is coming off a 33-10 win at Carolina and covered as an 11.0-point favorite. Washington is coming off a 31-19 home loss to the New York Giants. Any NFL home favorite of -10.0 or greater that’s coming off an away favorite of 10.0 or more ATS cover, versus an opponent that allowed 19 points or more in their previous contest, and the total in this current identical situation is 45.0 or greater, resulted in those games playing 7-0 to the over since 1998. There was a combined average of 65.7 points scored per gane during those 7 contests. Give me this game to go over the total.

Vikings @ Broncos 8:20 PM ET

Game# 473-474

Play On: Vikings +3.0

The Broncos are 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3. But it comes with an asterisk since they has a massive +8 turnover differential in those contests that were instrumental in them prevailing. During that stretch, the Broncos offense has only averaged 293.0 yards of total offense per game. Additionally, Denver has been outgained in 8 of 9 games this season with the line exception being +8 in total yards versus Green Bay. The Viking are a red-hot 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 games in which 4 of those came as a pick or underdog. Minnesota is also 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 on the road. Granted those 4 wins all came over teams that currently have a losing record. However, despite their recent win streak, Denver is still only 4-5 this season. The Vikings defense has been a very formidable unit since Game 4 of their season. During their last 7 contests they’ve allowed just 18.1 points and 297.9 yards per game. Give me the Vikings plus points.

Kansas State @ Kansas 7:00 PM ET

Game# 363-364

Play On: Kansas State -9.5

So let me get this straight, both teams have identical 7-3 records and are ranked in the Top 25. Yet, one team (Kansas State) comes up as better than a touchdown road favorite. They’re begging yo to take the home underdog Kansas Jayhawks. Nonetheless, I’m not taking the bait. Give me Kansas State minus points.

Commanders @ Seahawks 4:25 PM ET

Game# 261-262

Play On: Commanders +6.0

Seattle was hammered in last week’s 37-3 loss at Baltimore in a game the Ravens held a total yard advantage of 515-151. Since the 2021-2022 season, Seattle is 2-8 ATS as a home favorite of between 3.5 and 7.0. Furthermore, they lost 6 of those 10 games outright. Washington is coming off a confidence building 20-17 win at New England last Sunday in a game they closed as a 3.0-point underdog. The Commanders are now a perfect 4-0 ATS as an away underdog this season and won 3 of those contests SU. Washington’s 2nd year quarterback Sam Howell has been terrific in the last 2 games while going 68-97 (70.1%) passing which accounted for 696 yards. Since 2021-2022, Washington is 7-0-1 SU and 7-1 ATS in Games 10 through 13. Give me the Commanders plus the points as my Top Play of the Week.

Oklahoma State @ UCF 3:30 PM ET

Game# 141-142

Play On: UCF +2.5

Oklahoma State has been a resurgent team after a an uninspiring 2-2 start to the season. The Cowboys have gone a red-hot 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 games which included wins over nationally ranked teams Kansas, Kansas State, and Oklahoma. Yet, here they are as just a 2.5-point favorite over a UCF team that’s 4-5 and has been a huge disappointment considering their preseason expectations. If it looks to good to be true when pertaining to sports betting it usually is.

College Football teams like UCF that are +3.0 to -3.0 that’s playing an opponent like Oklahoma State who’s coming off 4 or more ATS covers in a row, resulted in those teams going 35-13 ATS (72.9%) since 2019. Give me UCF plus points.

Buffalo @ Cincinnati 8:15 PM ET

Game# 8:20 PM ET

Play On: Buffalo +2.5

A lot of people have written off Buffalo but I’m not one of them. Granted they’ve looked anything like a serious Super Bowl contender during a listless 5-3 start to the season. Now they’re about to face a Cincinnati team that’s rounded into form over the last 3 games and very much appears like they’re going on another deep postseason run. However, why are they just a 2.5-point home favorite? This looks like a huge trap to take the small home favorite that’s on a red-hot roll right now. However. keep in mind that Buffalo hasn’t been an underdog very much in recent seasons but when that occurs, they’ve been money in the bank. Specifically speaking, the Bills are 6-0 ATS including 5-1 SU in their last 6 as a regular season underdog of 3.0 or less while averaging a massive 39.2 points scored per game. Their only SU loss in that sequence came when Kyler Murray hooked up with Deandre Hopkins on a miracle Hail Mary pass on the last playoff the game which enable Arizona to defeat Buffalo 34-32. Give me the Bills plus points as my NFL Top Play of the Week.

Penn State @ Maryland 3:30 PM ET

Game# 337-338

Play On: Maryland +9.0

#9 Penn State (7-1) struggled mightily is last week’s 33-24 home win over Indiana in a game they closed as a 31.0-point favorite. Granted they were coming off a deflating 20-12 loss at Ohio State the week before and were extremely flat as a result. However, a string case can be made for the Nittany Lions to be flat again on Saturday when factoring in that they’ll be hosting #2 Michigan 7 days later, and they’re facing a Maryland team which has lost 3 straight contests.

Don’t sleep on Maryland because of their recent funk. The Terrapins are still 5-3 even with their recent struggles. They’ll be out to atone for 2 consecutive losses as a double-digit favorite against Northwestern and Illinois. Their other loss was a 37-17 defeat at #3 Ohio State in which the game was much closer than the final score indicates. The Terrapins trailed that contest 20-17 with less than 11 minutes to play before Ohio State finished the contest with 17 unanswered points. Give me Maryland plus points.

Bengals @ 49ers 4:25 PM ET

Game# 273-274

Play On: 49ers -5.0

Cincinnati is coming off a home favorite ATS 17-13 win over Seattle. Nevertheless, that Bengals win was a bit deceiving since they were outgained in the contest by a wide margin of 169 yards. It was more a result of Seattle failing miserably to cash in on their scoring opportunities more than anything else.

San Francisco started the season 5-0 and looked like the best team in the NFL while doing so. However, they’re coming off 2 straight away favorite SU losses against Minnesota and Cleveland. NFL betting history has shown that teams like San Francisco in this exact situation have done very well. NFL home favorites of 3.0 or more that are coming off 2 straight away favorite SU losses and their facing an opponent like Cincinnati who’s coming off a SU&ATS win, resulted in those home favorites going 15-0-1 ATS since 1980, and with an average victory margin of 14.5 points per game.

Wyoming @ Boise State 5:30 PM ET

Game# 163-164

Play On: Wyoming +5.0

Wyoming is a perfect 4-0 ATS as an underdog this season and won 2 of those contests straight up. The Cowboys will be well rested after having their last week off and after a game in which they gave nationally ranked Air Force (7-0) all they can handle in a 34-27 road loss while covering as a 12.5-point underdog. Wyoming is at a +6-turnover differential for the season and hasn’t turned the ball over during each of their previous 3 games. In my professional opinion, Boise State has been overvalued all season due to their winning tradition. This is another prime example of such. The Broncos have really struggled defensively over their previous 4 contests while allowing 31.0 points and 399.0 yards per game. Give me Wyoming plus points.

Dolphins @ Eagles 8:20 PM ET

Game# 471-472

Play On: Dolphins +3.0

Both teams enter this much anticipated matchup with stellar 5-1 (.833) records. Nevertheless, Miami was the more impressive of the 2 teams. Philadelphia has outscored their opponents by an average of 5.1 points and outgained them by 97.0 yards per game. Conversely, Miami has outscored opponents by an average of 11.2 points and outgained them by 155.0 yards per game. The Eagles are coming off their first loss of the season as they fell 20-14 on the road last Sunday at the New York Jets. Miami is coming off a 42-21 home win over Carolina.

Any non-division away team like Miami with a point-spread of between +3.0 to -3.0 that’s playing after Game 4 and has a win percentage of .500 or better, versus an opponent coming off 2 consecutive away games with the last of which being a SU loss by 6 points or more, resulted in those away teams going 8-0 SU&ATS since 2018. Give me Miami plus points.

Colorado State @ UNLV 7:00 PM ET

Game# 375-376

Play On: UNLV -7.0

UNLV is coming off a 45-27 win at Mountain West Conference rival Nevada and covered easily as a 7.5-point favorite. Conversely, Colorado State comes off a 31-30 upset win over Boise State as a 7.5-point underdog. UNLV has been red-hot offensively over their last 4 contests while averaging 43.5 points scored and 466.5 yards gained per game. The Rebels are also a perfect 3-0 SU&ATS at home this season with an average victory margin of 19.0 points per game. UNLV also is at an impressive +9 turnover differential while getting off to a stellar 5-1 start to the season. They’ll be facing a 2-3 Colorado State team which has allowed 38.0 points and 485.0 yards per game. The Rams have committed a concerning 11 turnovers through 5 games.

Any College Football conference home favorite of 23.0 or less that’s coming off an away favorite ATS win in which they scored 45 points or more, versus an opponent like Colorado State that’s coming off a conference home underdog SU win, resulted in those home favorites going 16-0 SU&ATS since 1981. Give me UNLV minus points.

Astros (Verlander) @ Rangers (Montgomery) 5:07 PM ET

Game# 911-912

Play On: Under 9.0

Justin Verlander has established himself as one of the best starting pitchers in postseason baseball over the past 2 decades. There’s no reason to think that will change tonight. Verlander has been in excellent form over his last 4 starts with a 1.05 ERA/0.93 WHIP. During his last 4 road starts Verlander recorded a sparkling 0.72 ERA. Verlander has made 2 starts versus Texas this season with a 1.98 ERA/0.95 WHIP in 13 2/3 innings pitched. The Astros bullpen has a terrific staff 1.47 ERA/0.69 WHIP throughout their previous 7 games.

Jordan Montgomery has been magnificent for Texas down the stretch. During his last 7 starts the Texas lefty has a brilliant 1.22 ERA. During his 2 starts versus Houston this season Montgomery had a superb 0.69 ERA. The Rangers bullpen had a tough day yesterday, but they’ve been very good during a majority of postseason action. Give me this game to go under the total.

Cowboys @ Chargers 8:15 PM ET

Game# 277-278

Play On: Cowboys -122

The Cowboys (3-2) are coming off a humiliating 42-10 loss at San Francisco in their previous game. However, this has been a resilient team with Mike McCarthy as their head coach. Dallas has gone 8-0 SU&ATS in their last 8 following a loss and won by a decisive margin of 18.9 points per game. Additionally, recent NFL betting history highly favors Dallas in this exact betting situation. NFL money line away favorites coming off a loss by 12 points in which they allowed 40 points or greater and they possess a winning record, resulted in those away money line favorites going 19-2 (90.5%) since 2004. Furthermore, if they were facing an opponent like the Chargers who had a win percentage of .363 or better, they improved to 8-0 and with a victory marge of 10.8 points per game. Give me the Cowboys on the money line.

Lions @ Buccaneers 4:25 PM ET

Game# 267-268

Play On: Buccaneers +3.5

The Lions certainly received their fair share of preseason hype and thus far have lived up to expectations by going 4-1. However, Tampa Bay has quietly flown under the radar with a 3-1 record with their lone defeat coming at the hands of defending NFC champion Philadelphia.  The Bus are coming off their bye week and a convincing 26-9 win at New Orleans in their previous game. Throughout their first 4 games the Bucs are a +7 in turnover differential while the Lions are only +1 during their first 5 contests. I look for that to be a key factor in us getting the cover.

NFL home teams like Tampa Bay that are coming off an underdog SU win and both teams in the contest have win percentages of .750 or better, resulted in those home teams going 26-6 SU (85%) and 23-8-1 ATS since 1983.  If the home team was an underdog of between 2.0 and 4.0, they went 7-0 SU&ATS and won by an average of 13.7 points per game. Give me the Buccaneers plus points.

USC @ Notre Dame 7:00 PM ET

Game# 215-216

Play On: Notre Dame -130 (ML)

Notre Dame (5-2) has played the tougher schedule and has the better defense in this matchup. Additionally, we have a 2-loss team in Notre Dame as a favorite against an undefeated and #10 ranked team like USC. For lack of a better phrase, the oddsmakers are giving you the winner in this contest and I’m more than willing to accept that offer. Notre Dame has also won the last 5 meetings in South Bend played between these perennial rivals and won by an average of 13.4 points per game.

Despite their perfect 6-0 record, USC has allowed 36.7 points and 474.3 yards per contest over during their previous 3 games. They were extremely fortunate to escape with a 43-41 triple overtime win at home versus Arizona last week.

Notre Dame is coming off their first loss of the season last week at Louisville where they shot themselves in the foot with 5 turnovers. Prior to that, “The Irish” committed only 2 turnovers in their first 5 games of the season. I’m willing to give them a pass last week after playing back-to-back road games versus 2 undefeated and nationally ranked opponents. This week they return home in a huge rivalry game in which they can possibly spoil their opponent’s aspirations of possibly winning a national championship. Furthermore, they’ll be out for revenge after losing 38-27 at USC last season. The Blue and Gold will be primed to do exactly that.

Any College Football home favorite of 9.0 or less that playing before Game 9 like Notre Dame who is coming off an away favorite loss in which they allowed 38 points or fewer, and they’re facing an opponent like USC with a win percentage of .500 or better, resulted in those home favorites going 15-1 ATS since and 16-0 SU. The average margin of victory during those 16 contests came by a decisive 17.8 points per game. Give me Notre Dame as a money line favorite.

Cowboys @ 49ers 8:20 PM ET

Game# 473-474

Play On: Cowboys +4.0

Since 12/20/2020, Dallas has gone 5-0 SU&ATS as a regular season underdog of +3.0 to +5.5. The Cowboys even averaged 28.0 points scored per game during those upset wins. Dallas will also be playing with big time revenge after being eliminated in the playoffs by San Francisco in each of the last 2 years. The Cowboys are coming off an impressive 38-3 home win over the New England Patriots. The 49ers have begun the season 4-0 and scored 30 points or more on each occasion.

Any NFL away team like Dallas that’s coming off a win by 21 points or more in which they scored between 34 and 46 points, versus an opponent coming off 2 straight games in which they scored 30 points or more, resulted in those away teams going 8-0 SU&ATS since 2013. The average margin of victory during those 8 contests came by 10.0 points per game. Give me the Cowboys plus the points.

Alabama @ Texas A&M 3:30 PM ET

Game# 393-394

Play On: Texas A&M +1.5

Both teams come into this key SEC matchup with identical 4-1 records. Texas A&M is coming off last week's 34-22 neutral site win over Arkansas. Since losing at Miami, Texas A&M has gone 3-0 SU&ATS and outgained their 3 opponents (UL-Monroe, Auburn, Arkansas) by an average of 259 yards per game. The Alabama offense has been far from explosive over their previous 3 games while average just 342.0 yards per contest which is well below their standards, they’ve established under head coach Nick Saban.

Since 2020, conference home teams after Game 4 that are coming off a conference win in which they scored 27 points or more, and they possess a win percentage of .800 or better, versus an opponent with a win percentage of .800 or better, resulted in those home teams going 27-3 SU and 23-7 ATS. The SU results take on added significance in this case since it supports the underdog Texas A&M Aggies. 

Diamondbacks (Pfadt) @ Brewers (Burnes) 7:05 PM ET

Game# 949-950

Play On: Over 7.5

Despite Arizona being anemic offensively over the final week of regular season action this total moved from an opening number of 7.5 to 8.0. Some of that mover may be due to the slated Arizona starting pitcher Brandon Pfadt. During regular season play Pfadt made 18 starts and posted a lofty 5.70 ERA while surrendering 19 home runs in 90 innings pitched. The Diamondbacks have played 7-0-1 to the over in their last 8 on the road this season immediately following an off day and there was a combined average of 14.0 runs scored per game.

Former National League Cy Young Award winner Corbin Burnes has once again had a very good season. However, his ERA was much better on the road than at home where 9 of his 14 starts went over the total and he posted an ordinary 4.27 ERA during those outings. During his lone start at home versus Arizona this year, Burnes allowed an alarmingly high 7 earned runs in 5.0 innings of work. Milwaukee has played 12-4 to the over at home versus NL West teams this season and there was a combined average of 10.3 runs scored per game. Give me this game to go over the total.

Ravens @ Browns 1:00 PM ET

Game# 259-260

Play On: Browns -120

A lot can change between now and the end of the season, but as of this present moment, I’m of strong belief that Cleveland is the better team in this matchup and especially defensively. The Browns are 2-0 at home and won each contest in dominating fashion by a cumulative score of 51-6. Cleveland did lose at Pittsburgh 26-22 but by no fault of their defense. Pittsburgh was a beneficiary of 2 defensive touchdowns in that contest. As a matter of fact, the Browns defense has allowed just 1 touchdown thus far in 2023. Cleveland has won their last 2 at home versus the Ravens. During their first 3 contests, the Browns stop unit allowed only an average of 163.7 yards per game. You may be surprised to know that since 12/19/2021, Baltimore has gone an abysmal 0-9 SU when facing teams with a winning record. Give me the Browns on the money line.

Eagles @ Buccaneers 7:15 PM ET

Game# 477-478

Play On: Buccaneers +5.0

Both teams are off to 2-0 starts. However, I’ve been more impressed with Tampa Bay so far considering the low expectation level compared to the defending NFC Champion Philadelphia Eagles. The Eagles defeated New England 25-20 and Minnesota 34-28. Thos teams are a combined 0-4 to start the season. Yet, the Eagles defense allowed 300 yards or more passing in both wins. The Eagles have also been beneficiaries of 6 turnovers committed by those opponents.

Conversely, Tampa Bay didn’t commit a turnover during their 2-0 start while forcing its opponents into 5 giveaways.  Tampa is coming off a 27-17 home win over the Bears in which quarterback Baker Mayfield threw for 317 yards.

Any NFL Game 3 home underdog that won each of their first 2 games, and their previous win came by 11 points or fewer, resulted in those home underdogs going 9-0 ATS since 2006. The underdogs also won 8 of those 9 games straight up. Additionally, NFL Monday Night home underdogs of between 2.0 to 5.5-points that are coming off a SU&ATS win and are playing in the first 4 games of the season, resulted in those home underdogs going 6-0 SU&ATS since 2006. The average margin of victory during those 6 contests came by 11.8 points per game. Give me the Buccaneers as my NFL Top Play of the Week.

BYU @ Kansas 3:30 PM ET

Game# 343-344

Play On: Kansas -9.5   

BYU (3-0) was able to pull off a 38-31 upset win at Arkansas last week as an 8.0-point underdog despite being outgained 424-281. During their only other game versus an FBS opponent that were listless in a 14-0 home win versus Sam Houston State and they were only able to amass a mere 257 yards in that contest.

Kansas (3-0) is coming off a flat sport last week in which they won 34-27 at Nevada but didn’t come close to covering as a 28.5-point favorite. However, I’m willing to pass since that game began at 9:30 PM ET Central Time and they were facing what was perceived to be a terrible Nevada team, and their Big 12 opener was up next versus BYU. I look for the Jayhawks to bounce back in a big way at home on Saturday.

Any College Football conference home favorite of 19.0 or less that’s coming off a SU win by 7 points or more in which they failed to cover as a favorite, and they possess a season win percentage of .800 or better, versus an opponent with a win percentage of .800 or better and they’re coming off a SU win, resulted in those home favorites going 13-0 SU&ATS since 2016. The average line in those 13 contests was 7.8 and the favorites won those contests by 21.6 points per game. Give me Kansas minus points for my Top Play of the Week.

Jets @ Dallas 4:25 PM ET

Game# 283-284

Play On: Cowboys -8.0

Dallas is coming off a 40-0 blowout road win over the Giants last Sunday night in a game their defense was dominant. The Jets defense will keep them in a game for a while. However, they’ll eventually wear down due to their offense not being able to sustain drives with any consistency.

Any NFL non-division home favorite of 8.0 to 16.0-points like Dallas that’s coming off a division away favorite ATS cover in which they scored 33 points or more, and they’re facing an opponent like the Jets who scored 24 points or fewer in their previous game, resulted in those teams going 8-0 SU&ATS since 2004. The average margin of victory in those 8 contests came by a massive 25.6 points per game. Give me Dallas minus points.

Tennessee @ Florida 7:00 PM ET

Game# 175-176

Play On: Florida +6.5

Since 2016, Tennessee is just 3-6 ATS as an SEC road favorite. Conversely, since 2018, Florida is 4-0 ATS as an SEC home underdog and won 3 of those contests SU. Their only SU loss in that sequence was a narrow 31-29 defeat as a 14.0-point underdog versus Alabama. The Gators have won 9 consecutive home games versus Tennessee. Their last home loss to the Volunteers came way back in 2003. We can’t ignore that domination when considering Florida is a touchdown home underdog on Saturday. They’ll also be out to revenge a 38-33 loss at Tennessee last season in a game they covered as an 11.0-point underdog. The Gators dropped their season opener 24-11 at #12 Utah in a contest they outgained the Utes 346-270. Florida bounced back during last Saturday’s home opener with a 49-7 win over McNeese State and outgained their outclassed opponent in total yards by a decisive margin of 560-112.

College Football home underdogs of 3.5 to 10.0-points like Florida who outgained their opponent by 175 yards or more in their previous game, resulted in those home underdogs within that poiont-spread parameter going 33-6 ATS (84.6%) since 2019. The average line for the underdogs in those contests was +5.8 and they went 26-13 SU as well. Give me Florida plus points.

Dolphins @ Chargers 4:25 PM ET

Game# 473-474

Play On: Chargers -3.0

I think the Chargers are one of the biggest sleepers in an otherwise loaded AFC heading into the season. They possess high quality offensive skilled possession players and a defense that will be vastly improved. The Chargers have gone 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 season openers. Since 2021, Miami is 2-6 ATS and 1-7 SU on the road when there’s a total of 45.5 or greater.

Any NFL Game 1 home team with a point-spread ranging from 0.0 to -5.0 that won 10 games or more the season before, and they’re facing an opponent like Miami that won 8 or more games the season before, resulted in those home teams withing that point-spread parameter going 31-14 ATS (68.8%) since 1989. Those home teams also went 35-10 SU in those contests as well. Give me the Chargers minus points for my NFL Week 1 Top Play.

Texas A&M @ Miami Fla. 3:30 PM ET

Game# 333-334

Play On: Miami Fla. +4.0

Miami is coming off a 38-3 non-conference win over Miami-Ohio and they covered easily as a 16.5-point home favorite. Texas A&M comes off a 52-10 home win over New Mexico.

Any non-conference home underdog of 5.5 or less Like Miami that’s coming off a non-conference home favorite of 12.0 or greater ATS win in which they covered by 10.0-points or more, versus an opponent like Texas A&M that’s coming off a SU win, resulted in those home underdogs going 8-0 SU&ATS since 1993. Those home underdogs won all 8 of those games straight up and by a decisive margin of 12.6 points per contest. Give me Miami plus points.

Padres (Wacha) @ Brewers (Houser) 2:10 PM ET

Game# 957-958

Play On: Under 9.0

Michael Wacha has been in terrific form over his last 6 starts while recording a 1.06 ERA/0.94 WHIP. Wacha has also been superb in form day game starts this season with a 1.12 ERA/0.88 WHIP. The Padres bullpen has been very good over the past week. However, their offense has been silent and they were hitting just .182 as a team and averaged 3.1 runs scored per outing over their last 7 games heading into the weekend.

The Brewers Adrian Houser is a perfect 6-0 during his team starts in day games with a shiny 3.03 ERA/1.06 WHIP. Houser has made 3 home starts versus the Padres since 2019 and posted a brilliant 1.80 ERA/0.87 WHIP in those appearances. The Milwaukee bullpen has been extremely good of late. The Brewers have played 26-11 to the under this year whenever the total was 9.0 or 9.5. Give me this game to go under the total.

Rangers (Scherzer) @ Twins (Ryan) 7:15 PM ET

Game# 923-924

Play On: Over 7.5

There’s something going on with Twins starter Joe Ryan who has been awful in recent starts. During his previous 5 starts, Ryan has compiled a sizable 9.00 ERA/1.83 WHIP and allowed an alarming 11 home runs in just 23.0 innings pitched. The Twins bullpen has been shaky over their previous 7 games while recording a staff 4.98 ERA/1.85 WHIP and they walked 17 batters in 21 2/3 innings pitched. Throughout their previous 7 games, Minnesota is averaging 5.7 runs scored per game and belted 13 homers.

Some of you may be scratching your head when seeing this pick, and consequently feeling uncomfortable betting a game over with Max Scherzer as one of the starting pitchers. However, as much as Scherzer has been dominant in his home starts this season that’s not been the case on the road. Scherzer has pitched 8-4-1 over on the road this season with a lofty 4.79 ERA. The most concerning part of Scherzer’s road starts is that he’s allowed 20 homers in 73.3 innings pitched. Couple that with the fact that he’ll be facing a Twins team which averages 1.48 homers hit per game at home and identically 1.48 hit per outing during 97 games versus right-handed starting pitchers, and he points toward a perfect storm. Furthermore, the Rangers bullpen has been brutal over the last 7 games while posting a 8.69 ERA/1.66 WHIP as a staff and they gave up 7 homers in 29.0 innings. Give me this game to go over the total.

Reds (Ashcraft) @ Angels (Giolito) 9:38 PM ET

Game# 967-968

Play On: Reds +135

The Angels pitching has been horrific of late. The Halos have allowed 7 runs or more in their last 3 and 6 of the previous 7 games. Lucas Giolito is the slated starting pitcher for the Angels, and he’s been in bad form over his last 3 starts while recording a 9.19 ERA/1.66 WHIP. The Angels bullpen has a miserable 8.16 ERA/1.92 WHIP over their previous 7 games. Despite being 3-4 in their last 7, the Angels are a -4.2 run per game differential over that course of time. 

Graham Ashcraft of the Reds has exhibited very good form over his last 4 starts with a 2.25 ERA/0.89 WHIP. The Reds bullpen has an excellent staff 1.42 ERA/0.79 WHIP throughout their previous 7 games. Cincinnati is 33-21 this season versus teams like the Angels who have a losing record. Give me the Reds on the money line as my MLB Underdog Game of the Month. 

Ravens @ Commanders 8:00 PM ET

Game# 431-432

Play On: Baltimore -125

Washington is coming off last week’s 17-15 win as a 2.5-pont road underdog at Cleveland. Baltimore is coming off a 20-19 win over Philadelphia but failed to cover as a large 6.0-point home favorite. Despite that close call, Baltimore has gone 24-0 SU and 20-3-1 ATS under the guidance of current head coach John Harbaugh. That includes 11-0 SU and 10-1 ATS on the road and with a decisive average victory margin of 12.3 points per game. Furthermore, except for 2020 when there were no preseason games due to COVID, these teams have met in preseason action every year since 2017. Baltimore was 5-0 SU in those contests and won by a substantial average of 15.8 points per game.

Any NFL preseason away team like Baltimore with a point-spread parameter of +2.0 to -2.0, and they’re coming off a home win in which they failed to cover as a favorite, versus an opponent like Washing who’s coming off an away underdog SU win, resulted in those away teams withing that point-spread parameter going 9-0 SU since 2004, and with an average victory margin of 12.3 points per game. Give me the Ravens on the money line.