12-20-14 |
San Diego Chargers v. San Francisco 49ers |
Top |
38-35 |
Loss |
-125 |
19 h 3 m |
Show
|
Chargers/49ers 8:25: Consensus is the 49ers threw in the towel after the Seattle loss but I won't stick a fork in them yet. Sure, there will be no playoffs and Harbaugh has a foot out the door; however, many in the SF organization have much to play for, including QB Kaepernick whose stock has plummeted. And the SF defense remains staunch even without McDonald. On the other hand, the Chargers will be without leading receiver Keenan Allen while QB Rivers is hampered with chest and back injuries. Rivers' production has declined over the last month and given his limited mobility to begin with, he'll have difficulty maneuvering against an aggressive SF pass rush. Chargers are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 on grass and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 Saturday tilts. SF, under Harbaugh, is 8-2 ATS as a favorite against an opponent off back-to-back losses, and 8-1 ATS as a home favorite against an opponent off a division game. SF the call.
|
12-14-14 |
Green Bay Packers v. Buffalo Bills +5.5 |
Top |
13-21 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 55 m |
Show
|
|
12-06-14 |
Florida State v. Georgia Tech +4 |
Top |
37-35 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 47 m |
Show
|
|
12-06-14 |
Temple -2.5 v. Tulane |
Top |
10-3 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 15 m |
Show
|
|
11-27-14 |
LSU -3 v. Texas A&M |
Top |
23-17 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 13 m |
Show
|
|
11-22-14 |
USC +4.5 v. UCLA |
Top |
20-38 |
Loss |
-110 |
43 h 25 m |
Show
|
USC/UCLA 8:00: Like the discipline of USC under HC Sarkisian as opposed to UCLA under Mora Jr. As statistics show, the Trojans take better care of the football, more opportunistic defensively (+9 turnover margin), better defensively in total defense and scoring defense, less penalties, and better special teams; consequently, USC is 6-4 ATS whereas the Bruins are an underachieving 3-7 ATS. Sure, Hundley is a very good QB and a playmaker but the Trojans are more well rounded in their talent. USC lost three close games and could easily be 9-1 SU going into this one with a few breaks going their way. The Trojans are seeking double revenge including the 35-14 loss at home last season. UCLA in a spot they're not comfortable in with a 1-7 ATS mark at home vs an opponent with revenge. USC the call!
|
11-20-14 |
Kansas State +2.5 v. West Virginia |
Top |
26-20 |
Win
|
105 |
4 h 49 m |
Show
|
Kansas State/West Virginia 7:00: West Virginia has shown improvement defensively under DC Tony Gibson; however, the Mounties couldn't get any worse after Holgorsen fired the previous three in four years. Gibson's defense is getting gutted on the ground to the tune of 181 yards per game but the Mounties have been fortunate to narrowly escape with wins this season on account of offensive efficiency -- a commonality in HC Holgorsen's game. Tonight, I don't think WV will be so fortunate. The Mounties, off back-to-back losses, did have an extra week to rest and sharpen some areas of weakness; however, history has it that WV has not been able to show results following a bye with a money burning 0-7 ATS mark in that department. On the other hand, the well disciplined Wildcats have shown success of bye weeks under Snyder with an impressive 6-0 ATS mark. Furthermore, K State is a sweet 15-3 ATS off a SU loss and 22-7 ATS off a SU loss of 20+. Sure, WV is looking to avenge last year's 35-12 loss in Manhattan but the Mounties are a mere 3-13 ATS at home vs an opponent off a double-digit SU loss. And with ranked K State getting points, I'll gladly jump on the Wildcats who sport an impressive 5-0 ATS mark as a dog of less than 7 points off a double-digit loss. And yes, the 'Cats can play on the road with a 15-5-1 ATS mark as a traveler against teams with winning records at home. K State the call.
|
11-16-14 |
Cincinnati Bengals v. New Orleans Saints -7 |
Top |
27-10 |
Loss |
-103 |
12 h 30 m |
Show
|
Bengals/Saints 1:00: Bengals sliding fast as they looked bad on Nov 6th against Cleveland. And though time to stew over it, Cincinnati does not have a favorable mark off bye weeks at 8-16-1 SU. Dalton remains in a funk and the Bengals' defense not nearly as formidable under DC Guenther as they were for last few years under Zimmer (Vikings HC). And the Saints' RB Ingram is hitting stride on the ground, which should open up the passing game for Brees to torch Cincinnati's secondary. We'll look for New Orleans to clean up the turnovers and roll. The Saints are 10-0 ATS off a SU loss vs an opponent off a double-digit SU loss during mid November. Marvin Lewis is a shaky 2-11 ATS off a double-digit SU loss vs an opponent off a home game. We will look for the Saints to march to a 5-1 ATS mark in Week 11.
|
11-15-14 |
Mississippi State +10 v. Alabama |
Top |
20-25 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 0 m |
Show
|
Miss State/Alabama 3:30: The Crimson Tide has bullied Miss State for some time, especially in Tuscaloosa where they last lost in 2006; however, the Bulldogs offense has gelled this season with QB Prescott having a Heisman season. He has a very good offensive line and supporting skill player RB Robinson. I realize the 'Tide defense is #1 in the nation but they're going to be challenged today. Alabama is coming off a bruising OT battle with LSU while Miss State rolled in a scrimmage-like game vs Tenn Martin. Alabama's offense is starting to roll up rushing yards but not the formidable O of a few seasons ago. We'll look for Miss State to hang tough here.
|
11-09-14 |
Atlanta Falcons v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 |
Top |
27-17 |
Loss |
-115 |
10 h 26 m |
Show
|
Atlanta/Tampa Bay 1:00: TB is seeking revenge from their 56-14 beat down in Week 3 in Atlanta. Atlanta has lost 5 straight since. TB are losing close games but remain competitive. The Bucs are 21-6-1 ATS in November and 4-1 ATS in Week 10; however the Falcons are 1-4 ATS in Week 10. Sure, the Bucs' offense is not good and now HC Smith will go back to McCown at QB. McCown has some weapons to go to including Mike Evans and should be able to work a Falcons' defense that has not been good. On the other hand, Falcons' QB Ryan has been sacked 11 times over the last three games and TB's defense has improved dramatically from September 18th embarrassment. Bottom line is Atlanta is 0-7 SU on the road and 2-5 ATS at TB. With the home team at 5-1-1 ATS in this series, I'm grabbing the points and TB.
|
11-09-14 |
San Francisco 49ers +6 v. New Orleans Saints |
Top |
27-24 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 58 m |
Show
|
|
11-08-14 |
Ohio State +4 v. Michigan State |
Top |
49-37 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 42 m |
Show
|
|
11-06-14 |
Cleveland Browns +7 v. Cincinnati Bengals |
Top |
24-3 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 12 m |
Show
|
|
11-06-14 |
Clemson -21 v. Wake Forest |
Top |
34-20 |
Loss |
-105 |
5 h 40 m |
Show
|
Clemson/Wake Forest 7:30: Wake Forest having trouble running the football is a gross understatement; as a matter of fact, they're averaging 35.5 YPG on the ground with a paltry 1.1 YPC average! The Clemson defense has tightened the bolts recently allowing just 9 PPG over their last 4 games. Moreover, WF is inexperienced at QB with John Wolford having just 1 TD pass with 6 INTs in conference play. I don't believe WF will be able to sustain any offensive momentum in this game; consequently, the exhausted WF defense will eventually succumb. Sure, Clemson is suspect at QB but they still have enough surrounding blocking and skill talent to wear down the Demon Deacons. Clemson is 8-3 ATS vs sub-.500 teams, 4-1 ATS in this series and should deliver here.
|
11-02-14 |
Arizona Cardinals v. Dallas Cowboys |
Top |
28-17 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 52 m |
Show
|
Cardinals/Cowboys 1:00: Cowboys coming off a short week of prep and Romo (small fractures in lower back) is doubtful. Cowboys are 1-4 ATS off of a Monday night game, 1-5 ATS in November and 0-4 ATS in Week 9. I'm not a fan of Brandon Weeden taking over at the helm; after all, he did not do well in his limited time as a starter in Cleveland. Sure, the Cowboys will roll with RB Murray but Arizona has the leading run-stop-unit in the league at allowing 78 YPG on 3.3 YPC. And C Patrick Paterson's return will fuel the secondary. Bruce Arians is doing a super job with Arizona and their well balanced offense should exploit the Dallas defense void of leading tackler Durant (biceps tear). Cards are a sweet 5-1 ATS and covered 6 of their last 7 road tilts. Cardinals the call.
|
11-01-14 |
Arizona +7 v. UCLA |
Top |
7-17 |
Loss |
-125 |
11 h 10 m |
Show
|
Arizona/UCLA 10:30: Not a fan of Jim Mora Jr. and his staff. Went to a coaching clinic over the summer and wasn't impressed. Their lack of attention to detail didn't leave a positive impression in my mind for a team attempting to vie for a national championship run. They now sit out of the national championship picture with an underachieving defense and an 0-3 ATS mark at home. Like the traveling 'Cats who won at Oregon and Washington State. Arizona is a sweet 11-2 ATS as a conference road dog of more than 4 points with revenge. We'll look for Arizona to bring their game to Pasadena tonight.
|
10-30-14 |
New Orleans Saints v. Carolina Panthers +3.5 |
Top |
28-10 |
Loss |
-125 |
4 h 40 m |
Show
|
|
10-25-14 |
Michigan v. Michigan State -17 |
Top |
11-35 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 1 m |
Show
|
|
10-24-14 |
South Florida +10 v. Cincinnati |
Top |
17-34 |
Loss |
-100 |
4 h 24 m |
Show
|
S. Fla/Cincinnati 7:00: Like how the Bulls play on the road with Taggart; as a matter of fact, Taggart is a sweet 21-3-1 ATS on the road as a head coach. USF had a relatively rough schedule but fared well against majors at 3-1 ATS. On the other hand, Cincinnati was drilled at Ohio State and blasted by a much improved Memphis team. Cincinnati is coming off a blowout win over bottom feeder SMU but should stumble here. The Bearcats' defense is giving up a whopping 524 ypg. And can't trust Cincy off blowout wins where they're 2-7 ATS off a SU win of 20+. With the dog at 5-2 ATS in this series, we'll look for USF to get er done.
|
10-23-14 |
San Diego Chargers +9.5 v. Denver Broncos |
Top |
21-35 |
Loss |
-105 |
5 h 20 m |
Show
|
Chargers/Broncos 8:25: I realize the Broncos are playing really well but catching a pissed off SD team in a spot they do pretty well. SD is 4-2 SU on Thursday nights and 7-1 ATS off a SU favorite loss. And SD is a solid road team against teams above .500 at home at 7-0 ATS. Furthermore, they're 8-0 ATS in Denver. Chargers defensive strength is against the pass and despite the loss of Brandon Flowers, their defensive line strength and quality secondary depth should be able to limit Peyton Manning and company. On the other hand, the Denver defense is much improved this year and book ends Ware and Von Miller are outstanding; however, SD's HC McCoy has done a tremendous job putting QB Rivers in a win/win situation this year with a fundamentally sound run game and quality pass blocking. And a healthy TE Gates is always a big plus. With the dog in this series at 5-1 ATS, we're grabbing the generous amount of points.
|
10-19-14 |
Seattle Seahawks -6 v. St. Louis Rams |
Top |
26-28 |
Loss |
-107 |
1 h 27 m |
Show
|
Seahawks/Rams 1:00: Rams catching the Seahawks in an ornery mood. Seattle is off a loss to Dallas but their 4-0 ATS off a SU loss, 5-0-1 in Week 7, and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road tilts. They're also 15-3 ATS off a non division game vs a division opponent off back-to-back SU losses. The Rams are coming off a short prep week after a strong losing effort Monday to SF; however, St. Louis is a poor1-32 SU and 7-26 ATS as division home dogs of 3 or more points. The Rams are also 2-19 ATS vs a division opponent off a SU loss as a favorite. The Rams defense is 26th against the run and should allow Seattle's Lynch to get back on track. And the Rams' offense with inexperienced QB Austin Davis at the helm, should struggle vs the hungry ball hawking Seattle defense. We'll look for Seattle to bounce back in a big way under Carroll here.
|
10-18-14 |
Akron -2.5 v. Ohio |
Top |
20-23 |
Loss |
-115 |
3 h 3 m |
Show
|
|
10-12-14 |
NY Giants +3 v. Philadelphia Eagles |
Top |
0-27 |
Loss |
-125 |
17 h 19 m |
Show
|
Giants/Eagles 8:30: Giants starting to roll and that bodes well for the G-Men here. They're 8-1 ATS as dogs off BB SU/ATS wins vs division. And this time of year NY gets rolling: In the second quarter of the season, they're 11-1 ATS as a road dog off a SU win against a .500 opponent. One of the keys to their success is the run game and it should continue with Andre Williams in the mix. Manning has gotten in rhythm with the new OC and new offense. I'm not a fan of the Eagles' defense and I believe Manning and company will roll. On the other hand, I like the way the NYG defense played them last year and like their chances again here. Giants are 6-2 ATS at Philadelphia. New York the call.
|
10-11-14 |
Miami (OH) v. Akron -15 |
Top |
19-29 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 5 m |
Show
|
|
10-05-14 |
NY Jets +7 v. San Diego Chargers |
Top |
0-31 |
Loss |
-115 |
6 h 53 m |
Show
|
Jets/Chargers 4:25: Chargers are rolling under HC McCoy who has QB Rivers playing exceptionally well while Ryan and the Jets are the polar opposite. Jets QB Smith remains a turnover machine and the Jets' secondary is disappointing. However, NY is in a good spot here: they get C Dee Millner back and that will help correct some secondary trouble. Furthermore, the Jets can be more creative in their blitz schemes coming in to this game with the best run-stop-unit in the NFL (64 YPG) and disrupt immobile QB Rivers' timing with his talented receiving corps. And SD does not run the ball well (2.4 YPC). Jets are 7-3 ATS in October under Ryan, and sport a 6-2 ATS mark in this series, including 4-1 ATS at San Diego. SD is just 2-6 ATS in October, 1-4 ATS in Week 5 nd 1-5-1 ATS after scoring 30+ the previous week. With the dog at 5-1 ATS in this series, we'll look for NY to get their strong run game going and keep it competitive.
|
10-05-14 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers v. New Orleans Saints -10 |
Top |
31-37 |
Loss |
-100 |
2 h 15 m |
Show
|
Buccaneers/Saints 1:00: Saints remain a poor road team yet flourish at home and should get back on track here. Saints' offense less turnover prone in the Superdome and Brees, with his talented receiving corps, should shred the TB defense. At the same time, Rob Ryan should correct the defensive flaws that plagued them for the first quarter of this season. The Saints in games 5 through 8 are 8-1 ATS off a SU favorite loss against a team below .500. Saints are 4-1 ATS in this series including the 41-17 whitewash last year here. TB defense should revert back to their crappy performance at Atlanta in the third week than what they did last week against the underachieving Steelers. Saints the call.
|
10-04-14 |
Stanford v. Notre Dame +3 |
Top |
14-17 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 7 m |
Show
|
|
10-04-14 |
Ball State +2.5 v. Army |
Top |
24-33 |
Loss |
-104 |
1 h 5 m |
Show
|
Ball State/Army 12:00: Ball State HC Lembo knows how to build a winning team and his boys are struggling early. We'll look for the Cardinals machine to start ramping up here. BS is 7-0 ATS in the second of back-to-back road games and 8-1 ATS vs opponent off back-to-back SU losses. The Cardinals crushed Army last season and the Black Knights want revenge; however, BS is 11-1 ATS vs an opponent with revenge. Army is a mere 2-8 ATS vs the MAC with a defense that is dreadful. Cardinals roll.
|
10-03-14 |
San Diego State +3.5 v. Fresno State |
Top |
13-24 |
Loss |
-115 |
5 h 28 m |
Show
|
|
09-28-14 |
Philadelphia Eagles v. San Francisco 49ers -4 |
Top |
21-26 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 55 m |
Show
|
Eagles/49ers 4:25: 49ers dug themselves in a hole with back-to-back 4th quarter collapses but we'll look for them to straighten things out here. SF is 7-1 ATS as favorites off a SU favorite loss in September. And Harbaugh sports a sweet 8-1 ATS mark as a home favorite vs an opponent off a division game. The Eagles' defense has its share of flaws and the 49ers should get their run game back up to speed with Gore and company. Philly is a mere 2-10-1 ATS after allowing 350+ yards the previous week. SF has its share of injuries and problems defensively; however, their team discipline remains strong and should recover well here. SF has responded to adversity well under Harbaugh with a sweet 24-8-3 ATS mark off an ATS loss and we'll back him and the 49ers again here. SF 4-0 ATS in week 4 while the Eagles are 0-5 ATS in week 4. SF the call.
|
09-27-14 |
UNLV v. San Diego State -18 |
Top |
17-34 |
Loss |
-115 |
9 h 56 m |
Show
|
UNLV/San Diego State 8:00: Revenge game for Rocky Long and he should have his boys well prepared. UNLV thrashed them last year in 'Vegas 45-19. UNLV has not shown a good fight in their games this year -- underachieving against inferior competition and getting throttled by out of conference majors; as a result, 0-4 ATS. On the other hand, the Aztecs were competitive and defensive minded HC Long should put the clamps down on the UNLV offense this year; after all, he won't have to worry about QB Herring (graduated) and RB Cornett (graduated). The Rebels have not filled those roles adequately this year. Moreover, the Rebels are dealing with a host of injuries. And keep in mind that UNLV is a mere 12-39-4 ATS on the road, and 0-4 ATS off a SU loss of 20+, and 1-5 ATS at SDS. The Aztecs, however, are 5-2 ATS at home and should deliver.
|
09-27-14 |
Western Michigan v. Virginia Tech -21 |
Top |
17-35 |
Loss |
-102 |
2 h 45 m |
Show
|
|
09-25-14 |
NY Giants +4 v. Washington Redskins |
Top |
45-14 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 51 m |
Show
|
Giants/Redskins 8:25: Hard to dismiss the Giants as a contender and certainly when they started revving it up. Manning has finally gotten in rhythm in the new offense and the run game is producing behind RB Rashad Jennings. As a matter of fact, NY is a sweet 40-17-2 ATS after accumulating 150+ rushing yards the previous week. Sure, the Redskins' offense is explosive with QB Cousins and company racking up big numbers; however, Giants have bolstered their secondary this year with Rodgers-Cromartie and Amukamara; moreover, we're going to look for the NYG' defensive line to pressure Cousins to force mistakes. And with 17 injuries listed on Washington's roster, the short week should take its toll. The Giants are feeling pretty good off their win at home vs the Texans. And New York is a strong 8-1 ATS vs their division off back-to-back home games. They also post a 5-1 ATS Thursday night mark. We'll look for New York to be competitive here as the Redskins have trouble enacting double revenge.
|
09-21-14 |
Indianapolis Colts -7 v. Jacksonville Jaguars |
Top |
44-17 |
Win
|
103 |
2 h 43 m |
Show
|
Colts/Jaguars 1:00: The Jags have not been a good home team at 1-5 ATS and face an angry Colts team that let one slip away Monday vs Philadelphia. Indianapolis is 10-1 ATS off a SU loss and 9-2 ATS vs division foes. Jacksonville has yet to cover this game in three attempts and I don't see it happening here. Jacksonville has problems with their offensive line and Gus Bradley went with a quick fix in reshuffling it for today. Chad Henne is not comfortable in the pocket and RB Gerhart (8 yards rushing on 7 carries) is not helping. We'll look for the Colts' defense, which has come off playing two explosive offenses to settle in and lock down a Marcedes Lewis (injured) less Jaguars' offense. And throw in that second leading receiver Marqise Lee (hamstring) is out, the Jaguars should significantly help the Colts' defense shine. We'll look for ultra competitive Andrew Luck to atone for last Monday's costly interception late in the game. Luck has a relatively healthy receiving corps and should pick apart the shaky Jaguars secondary. Colts the call.
|
09-21-14 |
Minnesota Vikings v. New Orleans Saints -10 |
Top |
9-20 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 40 m |
Show
|
Vikings/Saints 1:00: It will be difficult for the Vikings to compete at this strong venue today. Vikings not filling the void at RB for Peterson and that should create more problems for QB Matt Cassel today. The Saints' defense should be much more improved in their first home game and the noisy crowd should help. Offensively, QB Brees should be at his best here against a Vikings' defense left exposed last week against New England. And although Zimmer is excellent strategizing on the defensive side of the ball, the Vikings are work in progress in a number of areas and New Orleans' HC Payton should exploit them. New Orleans is 35-16 ATS at home and hungry for their first win. We'll look for a big one.
|
09-20-14 |
North Carolina +3 v. East Carolina |
Top |
41-70 |
Loss |
-115 |
4 h 41 m |
Show
|
North Carolina/East Carolina 3:30: EC feeling great after coming off upset of Virginia Tech last week; however, they're catching a vengeful NC team eager to atone for last year's 31-55 home shellacking. Fedora has an improved defense and he's further along in the development of his players than anticipated. NC is #25 in the nation for a reason and they will be hungry here. We'll look for the Tar Heels to disrupt EC QB Shane Carden's proficiency. East Carolina has some defensive issues with a young group that will have difficulty with discipline against a solid NC offense. And McNeill is just 4-14 SU/ATS vs winning teams. We'll look for NC to up this series mark to 7-1 ATS.
|
09-13-14 |
Penn State v. Rutgers +3.5 |
Top |
13-10 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 1 m |
Show
|
|
09-07-14 |
Cincinnati Bengals v. Baltimore Ravens -1.5 |
Top |
23-16 |
Loss |
-105 |
2 h 49 m |
Show
|
Bengals/Ravens 1:00: After a mediocre campaign last season, I'm looking for Baltimore to come out firing. New OC Kubiak should infuse some life in the sputtering offense of last year. A more experienced offensive line, bolstered receiving corps including the acquisition of Steve Smith should get them rolling. And defensively, they added some talent through the draft to add to the experience of veterans Dumervil, Suggs and Ngata. In Week 1, the Bengals are just 1-4-1 ATS as opposed to 5-1 ATS for the Ravens. And let's not forget that Flacco is 11-0 ATS at home in September. We'll roll with Baltimore.
|
09-06-14 |
Fresno State v. Utah -13 |
Top |
27-59 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 30 m |
Show
|
|
08-30-14 |
UCLA v. Virginia +20 |
Top |
28-20 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 13 m |
Show
|
UCLA/Virginia Noon: Good value with a talented Virginia team that was extremely young last year, which led to a disappointing 2-10 SU year; however, HC London can't use inexperience this year as his excuse and his boys should be quite competitive today; after all, they're playing a west coast team right in their wheel house. UCLA normally wakes up at this time (9am PST). And the Bruins have not been a good away favorite in recent years. And keep in mind that Virginia has beaten Penn State and BYU at home in early non-conference action over the last few years. Virginia the call.
|
02-02-14 |
Seattle Seahawks +3 v. Denver Broncos |
Top |
43-8 |
Win
|
100 |
146 h 0 m |
Show
|
Seahawks/Broncos 6:30: Didn't take long to determine winner here; after all, I had Seattle at -1 as the real line before the Peyton Manning affect went into play and the line posted Denver as the favorite while the public bought into it and drove it up to -3. Seattle's played a tougher schedule with two victories over SF and New Orleans. And the Seattle defense has been outstanding against passing teams. They have a defensive front that can get after opposing QBs without bringing backers or secondary. Albeit Peyton Manning is great, he still is one dimensional and doesn't possess a running threat like Russell Wilson does. Seattle's got a ball hawking secondary and extremely well disciplined under Carroll. And throw in Marshawn Lynch, who usually does his best work when the lights shine the brightest; moreover, Percy Harvin is a game breaker and must be accounted for offensively, which gives Seattle a triple threat and difficult task for Denver to handle. Furthermore, the Seahawks have the special teams edge and that can surely be another deciding factor. We're going to look for Denver to flame out here and for the Seahawks to deliver.
|
01-12-14 |
San Francisco 49ers v. Carolina Panthers |
Top |
23-10 |
Win
|
105 |
3 h 29 m |
Show
|
|
01-04-14 |
Houston +2.5 v. Vanderbilt |
Top |
24-41 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 7 m |
Show
|
|
01-03-14 |
Clemson v. Ohio State -3 |
Top |
40-35 |
Loss |
-102 |
47 h 27 m |
Show
|
|
12-31-13 |
Mississippi State -7 v. Rice |
Top |
44-7 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 1 m |
Show
|
|
12-29-13 |
Baltimore Ravens +7 v. Cincinnati Bengals |
Top |
17-34 |
Loss |
-120 |
1 h 6 m |
Show
|
Ravens/Bengals 1:00: Value with the Ravens, which are still in the playoff hunt. Baltimore is coming off a blowout loss to NE but history has it they respond well in these situations. Harbaugh sports a 4-0 SU/ATS mark in the game following a defeat of 20+. On the other hand, Cincy's HC Marvin Lewis sports an unsightly 0-5 ATS mark at home against a division opponent off a double-digit SU loss. Ravens, which have made the playoffs in each of the last five years, are not going away without a good fight here.
|
12-28-13 |
Cincinnati +3 v. North Carolina |
Top |
17-39 |
Loss |
-115 |
4 h 7 m |
Show
|
Bearcats/Tar Heels 3:20: Now that Tar Heels' QB Marquise Williams is well into the throes of the NC offense, he isn't going to sneak up on any defense. The Bearcats have a nationally ranked top 10 defense and should limit explosive plays to the Tar Heels' dominant TE Ebron and WR Davis while limiting major running weapon Williams. Bearcats' DC Kauffman does a good job preparing his men and keeping teams out of the end zone. On the other hand, the Cincinnati offense should utilize its size and experience along the offensive line and work the undersized NC defensive front. Sure, NC went on a nice tear down the stretch of the season but NC State, Virginia and Old Dominion not exactly high caliber opposition. And the 2 1/2 hour trek from Chapel Hill to Bank of America Stadium is not exactly a home field advantage as it's made out to be. We'll look for Cincy to control the clock offensively, hunker down defensively and deliver here.
|
12-27-13 |
Washington v. BYU +4 |
Top |
31-16 |
Loss |
-110 |
5 h 45 m |
Show
|
Washington/BYU 9:30: Like the BYU run game, defense and the fact that HC Mendenhall is 6-2 ATS in bowl games, including 4-0 in their last 4. For Washington, they lose their key offensive mastermind and HC Sarkisian. Sure, Tuiasosopo has experience in the system but doesn't have the adept clock management and system expertise Sarkisian has, especially in a big game like this. Like the Cougars and Taysom Hill here. BYU the call.
|
12-22-13 |
Minnesota Vikings v. Cincinnati Bengals -7.5 |
Top |
14-42 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 51 m |
Show
|
|
12-21-13 |
Buffalo +2.5 v. San Diego State |
Top |
24-49 |
Loss |
-113 |
6 h 0 m |
Show
|
|
12-16-13 |
Baltimore Ravens +7 v. Detroit Lions |
Top |
18-16 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 56 m |
Show
|
|
12-15-13 |
NY Jets v. Carolina Panthers -10 |
Top |
20-30 |
Push |
0 |
4 h 13 m |
Show
|
Jets/Panthers 4:05: Panthers got a little fat and happy during eight game run but last week got their wakeup call at New Orleans. The Panthers are 8-1 ATS off a SU loss of more than five points and should win their 6th straight ATS at home. The Panthers' defense allows a league low 14 1/2 ppg and should stall out the a sluggish Jets' offense that produces just 17.4 ppg. Sure, Geno Smith had a rare respectable performance last week but it was against the shaky Oakland secondary. On the other hand, the Jets' defense is 24th against the pass and will be sorely tested by the mobile Cam Newton. Jets' which play a lot of man to man, struggle against mobile QBs. And it surely won't help the Jets playing without Cromartie (concussed). Panthers, 22-8 ATS in December should deliver vs the inconsistent Jets.
|
12-08-13 |
Seattle Seahawks v. San Francisco 49ers -2 |
Top |
17-19 |
Push |
0 |
5 h 8 m |
Show
|
Seattle/San Francisco 4:30: Big revenge game for SF with that 29-3 drubbing on September 15th still in mind. The 49ers have Seattle in a good spot. The Seahawks are coming off a 34-7 demolition of New Orleans Monday night and operate on a short week of prep. The 49ers do have Crabtree back to add to the talented skill players Boldin, TE Davis and RB Gore. Kaepernick is playing better -- strong last two games -- and should be on his game here. The Seahawks won't have that twelfth man to aid them here and the 49ers should be able to move the football with Seattle's limited depth in secondary. Defensively, the 49ers have toughened up recently and getting back to its dominant state of last year. SF is 7-1 ATS after allowing less than 15 points previously. The favorite in this series is 5-1 ATS and the home team is 7-2 ATS. Today, we'll look for Harbaugh to get the best of his nemesis Carroll.
|
12-07-13 |
Utah State +3 v. Fresno State |
Top |
17-24 |
Loss |
-105 |
10 h 5 m |
Show
|
Utah State/Fresno State 10:00: Classic case of defense wins championships here. The Bulldogs are coming off a narrow loss to ruin their BCS hopes; in the process, they allowed a staggering 736 total yards to SJS. And the Bulldogs have historically not responded well after allowing 40+ points going a dismal 5-20-2 ATS. Utah State had its share of adversity to overcome mid-season -- losing its starting QB Keeton; however, they've responded well with Fr Darell Garretson who has a good supporting cast with SR RB DeMartino and an experienced offensive line. We'll look for Utah State to be productive offensively against the soft Bulldogs' defense. On the other hand, Utah State packs a solid punch defensively with a Top 20 defense that doesn't give up the explosive play often and stays tough backed up in the red zone (#6 nationally). Utah State 11-2 in their last 13 as a dog and 5-2 ATS in this series. The Aggies haven't won against FSU the past five meetings and hungry for a win here. Utah State the call.
|
12-02-13 |
New Orleans Saints +6.5 v. Seattle Seahawks |
Top |
7-34 |
Loss |
-104 |
5 h 32 m |
Show
|
Saints/Seahawks 8:45: Two great coaches in Payton/Carroll square off but I like the value with the Saints. Thought this line would be more competitive given that the Seahawks' secondary will be without Thurmond (suspended) and Browner (groin). Saints' Payton has plenty of weaponry at his disposal now that Graham and Sproles had additional time to recover during bye week. And Payton should create personnel matchups to exploit the thinning Seattle secondary that HC Carroll can only scheme and shuffle to a certain extent. And keep in mind that Drew Brees works great magic on prime time, including nine straight winning starts on Mondays with a 124 passer rating! On the other hand, the Saints' defense is the best it has been in years under DC Rob Ryan -- in the top quarter of the NFL in Total Defense. We'll look for the Saints to be more equipped than they were in that forgetful 2010 Playoff loss at Seattle when RB Lynch ran all over them. Saints are 5-0 ATS on Mondays and 6-0 ATS off a bye; moreover, they're 6-0 ATS as a dog of more than 3 points against .500 or greater foes. Saints the call.
|
11-30-13 |
Georgia v. Georgia Tech +3.5 |
Top |
41-34 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 27 m |
Show
|
Georgia/Georgia Tech 3:30: Quadruple revenge for the 'Jackets, which come into this one reasonably healthy for this time of year; on the other hand, the Bulldogs' QB Murray (ACL) out and should give G Tech the edge. Although much respect for Georgia's replacement QB Mason, who will eventually shine; however, this is his first start at this level and against a bitter rival on a rival's home field. G Tech, which is 7-2 ATS on their home turf has the defensive components this year to neutralize Georgia's attack. G Tech sports a defense in the top quarter echelon of the nation, can generate sacks and plays run well (9 in nation). We'll look for GT to get their powerful ground attack going and run away late with this one.
|
11-28-13 |
Ole Miss v. Mississippi State +4 |
Top |
10-17 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 11 m |
Show
|
|
11-23-13 |
Michigan State -6 v. Northwestern |
Top |
30-6 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 10 m |
Show
|
Michigan State/Northwestern 12:00: The Wildcats are on an 0-6 SU slide and struggled to put points on the board since mid-October; consequently, that does not bode well against the #1 total defense in the nation today. Michigan State is 5-1 ATS in Northwestern and sports a 15-5-1 ATS run on the road. Furthermore, the Spartans are revenge minded from last year's 23-20 home loss. And with the incentive to punch a ticket to the Big Ten Championship game, we'll look for the Spartans to answer the bell. I do realize NW is opportunistic on the defensive end with 22 forced turnovers; however, the Spartans' offense, although not explosive, has gotten efficient as the season progressed and has limited turnovers. With Dantonio strong in November, we'll ride the Spartans here.
|
11-20-13 |
Northern Illinois v. Toledo +3 |
Top |
35-17 |
Loss |
-105 |
4 h 43 m |
Show
|
Northern Illinois/Toledo 8:00: Like the revenge minded Rockets which have been strong at home and present a stiff challenge on each side of the ball. The Rockets had an extra prep day, which is huge this late in the season -- for recovery. Toledo has offensive firepower to match dangerous QB Jordan Lynch and company. Rockets' QB Owens has limited turnovers and has good support from a veteran offensive line and a run game. RB Kareem Hunt has been a solid fill in for injured David Fluellen (leg). The Rockets' defense is yielding but opportunistic -- forcing 19 turnovers this year. And at home in a sold out Glass Bowl, we'll give them the edge. Dog in this series is 8-3 ATS and Toledo has covered 5 of the last 7. Throw in triple revenge and Toledo has a great shot of pulling this out.
|
11-17-13 |
Kansas City Chiefs +7.5 v. Denver Broncos |
Top |
17-27 |
Loss |
-110 |
9 h 50 m |
Show
|
Chiefs/Broncos 8:30: Chiefs will look to shorten this game and keep Peyton Manning and company off the field. To do this, KC will have to get their running game going with Jamaal Charles to allow Alex Smith open up play action. Fortunately, WR Bowe will play and that bodes well for KC. Broncos know QB Manning (ankle) will be needed for the rest of season and playoffs; consequently, Denver should 5 to 7 step drop passes against a sack happy Chiefs team (36 sacks leads league). With double revenge on the Chiefs' minds, they should be quite competitive here. And HC Reid is a sweet 13-1 ATS off a bye and 7-1 as a dog of 6 or more points. KC the call.
|
11-16-13 |
Stanford -3.5 v. USC |
Top |
17-20 |
Loss |
-101 |
16 h 6 m |
Show
|
Stanford/USC 8:00: USC had a nice run under interim HC Orgeron, but it ends here. Stanford, with a few extra prep days after upending Oregon, maintains a level of stability and discipline that USC doesn't have. And although stats support the Trojans in areas of winning the turnover battle, they've been fortunate during their winning run to face teams in decline. And USC is notorious for sluggishness after SU wins (3-10 ATS) and on stay away alert after 20+ blowout wins (0-5 ATS). Stanford, however, is a sweet 19-6-1 ATS as a traveler, 12-3-1 ATS on the road vs teams above .500 at home, and 6-1 ATS in November. The Cardinal is 4-0 ATS in Southern California and the road team in this series has covered 6 of the last 8. We'll ride the methodical approach of Stanford to neutralize the Trojans' athletes and deliver.
|
11-16-13 |
Cincinnati +1.5 v. Rutgers |
Top |
52-17 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 30 m |
Show
|
|
11-14-13 |
Indianapolis Colts -1 v. Tennessee Titans |
Top |
30-27 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 9 m |
Show
|
Colts/Titans 8:25: Two teams coming off disastrous losses: Colts getting blown out at home vs St. Louis and Tennessee upset by lowly Jacksonville. We'll look for the Colts to bounce back tonight, however. Colts are 10-1 ATS off a SU loss and 6-0 ATS after allowing 30+ points. With similar defensive stats, it will ultimately come down to special teams and offensive production with Andrew Luck vs backup Ryan Fitzpatrick, which is an easy call; after all, the Colts special teams are better and should learn from last week's disaster (Tavon Austin). And the Titans have turned the ball over 13 times over their last five games. Their QB Fitzpatrick has a history of interception problems stemming from Buffalo. Furthermore, the Colts are 8-1 SU in this series and 5-0 ATS on the road against a team with a losing home record. Colts the call.
|
11-13-13 |
Ball State +9 v. Northern Illinois |
Top |
27-48 |
Loss |
-108 |
4 h 43 m |
Show
|
Ball State/N. Illinois 8:00: Northern Illinois' soft schedule gives us value here. Sure, Ball State didn't take on powerhouses but did cover against another MAC contender Toledo. Moreover, the Cardinals sport a strong 40-14 ATS mark on the road and 8-2 ATS with extra prep under Lembo. The Cardinals are looking for revenge from last year's 23-35 loss at home to the Huskies. And Ball State sports an impressive 3-1 ATS mark at Huskie Stadium. The Cardinals' QB Wenning leads a potent offense that racks up 476 yards per game and capable of trading points with the dynamic Jordan Lynch and company. The Huskies have few apparent weaknesses but are vulnerable defensively when teams break their red zone -- scoring 92% of the time (113th in nation). Ball State's offense closes out at a strong 88% in the red zone and should be able to stay in this one. Huskies just 1-4-1 ATS on weekdays and 0-3-1 ATS vs winning teams. Ball State the call.
|
11-10-13 |
Dallas Cowboys v. New Orleans Saints -6 |
Top |
17-49 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 55 m |
Show
|
Cowboys/Saints 8:30: Saints, which are coming off a loss at NY, should get back to biz here. New Orleans is 6-2 ATS off a SU loss and 6-2 ATS in this series. Rob Ryan, the Saints' DC who was fired by the Cowboys after last season, should have his men well focused to stop the pass happy Cowboys. On the other hand, the Saints will have another key offensive cog -- Sproles -- back in the mix to work a mediocre Dallas defense. Cowboys are just 1-6 ATS in November football and should have trouble in this spot; after all, New Orleans is a dangerous 20-6 ATS at the Superdome. New Orleans the call.
|
11-09-13 |
Penn State +3 v. Minnesota |
Top |
10-24 |
Loss |
-120 |
8 h 17 m |
Show
|
|
11-03-13 |
San Diego Chargers v. Washington Redskins |
Top |
24-30 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 2 m |
Show
|
|
11-02-13 |
West Virginia v. TCU -11.5 |
Top |
30-27 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 17 m |
Show
|
|
10-31-13 |
Arizona State v. Washington State +11 |
Top |
55-21 |
Loss |
-110 |
6 h 11 m |
Show
|
|
10-27-13 |
Buffalo Bills v. New Orleans Saints -10.5 |
Top |
17-35 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 34 m |
Show
|
Bills/Saints 1:00: Bills catching the Saints at the wrong time. Bills, coming off a huge upset win at Miami now have to enter a dome stadium in which Drew Brees can put up big numbers. Brees should torch a Buffalo defense that's in the bottom quarter of the NFL defending the pass. And TE Jimmy Graham (foot) should be ready to go. And keep in mind that the Saints are 5-0 ATS off a bye week and had time to stew over their last second loss at New England. Furthermore, Rob Ryan had an extra week to prep for Thad Lewis and company. The New Orleans defense is in the upper echelon of the NFL. Moreover, the Saints are a sweet 11-0 ATS at home against a non-conference team off a SU dog win. And the Bills are 0-3 ATS in their last 3 vs New Orleans. Saints the call.
|
10-26-13 |
Colorado State -1 v. Hawaii |
Top |
35-28 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 53 m |
Show
|
|
10-26-13 |
Buffalo -1.5 v. Kent State |
Top |
41-21 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 18 m |
Show
|
|
10-20-13 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers v. Atlanta Falcons -6 |
Top |
23-31 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 46 m |
Show
|
|
10-19-13 |
USC v. Notre Dame -2.5 |
Top |
10-14 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 53 m |
Show
|
USC/Notre Dame 7:30: Athletically the Trojans, which get back Marqise Lee and CB Anthony Brown, are more equipped to win this game; however, coaching and other variables come into play and that is where Notre Dame has the edge. Coaching mismatch with Kelley against Orgeron. Brian Kelly is a national championship caliber coach whereas his counterpart -Ed Orgeron is not (i'm going to be nice and quit there). The Trojans caught an unprepared Arizona defense off guard on October 10th with their run game and explosive play nine routes. That is unlikely to happen against a well disciplined Irish defense that will have DE Sheldon Day back to add to a much needed pass rush. On the other hand, the Irish can exploit a USC pass defense that gave up 975 yards over the last two games. And keep in mind that USC coughed up a 25 point lead against Arizona to cover by a only a point. Good value with ND that's 4-1 ATS off a bye. Trojans have not traveled well at 0-9 ATS on the road and 0-6 ATS against a team with a winning home record. Emotion and energy got USC the win last week; today, reality sets in as Kelly and his staff draw circles around the brains of Orgeron's staff.
|
10-13-13 |
Carolina Panthers +3 v. Minnesota Vikings |
Top |
35-10 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 18 m |
Show
|
|
10-12-13 |
Oregon v. Washington +13.5 |
Top |
45-24 |
Loss |
-110 |
13 h 0 m |
Show
|
|
10-10-13 |
Arizona +6 v. USC |
Top |
31-38 |
Loss |
-115 |
6 h 19 m |
Show
|
Arizona/USC 10:30: The Trojans should continue their demise under fat head Orgeron who controls a 10-25 SU mark as a HC. It won't help USC that their top receiver Lee has an ailing knee; moreover, their defense should continue its backward slide to Rodriguez's quick strike spread attack led by RB Ka'Deem Carey. Arizona has a veteran team and better depth than the Trojans. Moreover, the Wildcats have covered 7 of the last 8 in this series and 4 straight at the Coliseum. Arizona is 10-4 ATS off a bye and 5-2 ATS on Thursdays. Arizona the call.
|
10-06-13 |
New England Patriots v. Cincinnati Bengals +2 |
Top |
6-13 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 59 m |
Show
|
|
10-05-13 |
Northern Illinois -7 v. Kent State |
Top |
38-24 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 46 m |
Show
|
|
10-03-13 |
Texas v. Iowa State +7.5 |
Top |
31-30 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 6 m |
Show
|
|
09-29-13 |
NY Jets +3.5 v. Tennessee Titans |
Top |
13-38 |
Loss |
-116 |
4 h 58 m |
Show
|
|
09-29-13 |
Pittsburgh Steelers -3 v. Minnesota Vikings |
Top |
27-34 |
Loss |
-100 |
9 h 34 m |
Show
|
|
09-28-13 |
LSU +3.5 v. Georgia |
Top |
41-44 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 16 m |
Show
|
|
09-22-13 |
Jacksonville Jaguars v. Seattle Seahawks -19 |
Top |
17-45 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 14 m |
Show
|
|
09-21-13 |
Wyoming -4 v. Air Force |
Top |
56-23 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 7 m |
Show
|
Wyoming/Air Force 10:15: Last year's second half comeback by AF rattled Wyoming HC Christensen and he has had his eye on this revenge match since; moreover, Christensen does not like AF HC Calhoun. This season, the Falcons are thin in a lot of areas, especially defensively; as a result, we'll look for the potent offense of the Cowboys with QB Brett Smith and company to overwhelm AF's vulnerable defense. Offensively, AF lost their starting QB Pearson and one dimensional backup Awini not in total rhythm with offense. Wyoming 4-0 ATS in series. AF is a mere 1-6 ATS off a SU loss of 20+. We'll look for Wyoming to get sweet revenge here.
|
09-15-13 |
Dallas Cowboys +3 v. Kansas City Chiefs |
Top |
16-17 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 30 m |
Show
|
|
09-15-13 |
Carolina Panthers v. Buffalo Bills +3.5 |
Top |
23-24 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 27 m |
Show
|
Carolina/Buffalo 1:00: Not sure Mike Shula is a good fit for Cam Newton. Newton struggled last week, albeit against a great Seattle defense, but he was uncomfortable and confused at times when receivers were open. Buffalo wasn't intimidated last week against New England as they came after Brady with a lot of Cover 1. We'll look for them to attack Newton in similar fashion. On the other side of the ball, Buffalo looked good with Manuel at the helm and Spiller behind a good offensive line will add for more positive production for this offense. Bills 12-5 ATS in Week 2 while Carolina a mere 4-10 ATS in September. Bills the call.
|
09-14-13 |
Washington v. Illinois +10.5 |
Top |
34-24 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 7 m |
Show
|
|
09-08-13 |
Cincinnati Bengals +3 v. Chicago Bears |
Top |
21-24 |
Push |
0 |
8 h 39 m |
Show
|
Bengals/Bears 1:00: We'll take stability over change here. The Bengals have gradually worked their way back to respectability under HC Marvin Lewis and should be ready for a breakout season with a bruising defense in which Pro Bowl LB James Harrison will enhance. The Bears are in a transition mode with converted CFL coach Marc Trestman running the show. It should be a difficult transition to create instant pass protection for QB Cutler against last season's top pass rushing team in the league bearing down on him. Offensively, the Bengals' underrated QB Dalton, who worked through his sophomore slump and is ready to get out of the gate strong with a solid supporting cast. Bears have reloaded their defense after Urlacher's departure, but it should take time to gel. Bengals are 4-1 ATS at Chicago and we'll roll with them.
|
09-06-13 |
Central Florida -24 v. Florida International |
Top |
38-0 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 44 m |
Show
|
UCF/Fla Int'l: UCF has a meaningful disparity in talent and experience over FIU. FIU's inexperienced defense was gutted last week by an average MD offense. UCF's All-Conference QB Blake Bortles will most likely torch the inexperienced secondary of the Panthers, especially when the running game gets going with RB Storm Johnson (99 yds last week vs Akron). The Panthers' offense should be handcuffed too. They got a paltry 171 total yards against MD last week. And UCF brings another well disciplined defense to the gridiron this year. We'll look for the Knights to choke out the rebuilding Panthers, which don't have too much talent to operate with. And clearly UCF's HC O'Leary wants to keep it that way with Miami Florida recruits going his way. On the other hand, first year Panthers' HC Turner is a mere 6-23 SU/ATS in games off a SU/ATS loss in his collegiate coaching career. UCF the call.
|
02-03-13 |
Baltimore Ravens v. San Francisco 49ers -4 |
Top |
34-31 |
Loss |
-106 |
8 h 49 m |
Show
|
Baltimore/San Francisco 6:30: I've given myself plenty of reasons change my original selection of the 49ers as the winner/cover of this game, including the Super Bowl dog covering 8 of the last 11; however, I'm staying with SF based a variety of factors: first, the SF offense is brilliantly designed to create an extra blocker through their formations and utilize their strengths of speed and brute force. And the Baltimore defense is a step slow up front to effectively counter the read option. If Baltimore does sell out and bring an extra body in the box, SF's Kaepernick can find the perimeter quick and locate his talented receiving corps. On the other hand, the Ravens offense is cooking too, but Caldwell's play calling has been suspect and predictable. SF brings an outstanding defense to the field, including a fierce pass rush with the Aldon and Justin Smith to disrupt Flacco's vertical game. We'll stay on the 49ers.
|
01-20-13 |
San Francisco 49ers -3.5 v. Atlanta Falcons |
Top |
28-24 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 21 m |
Show
|
49ers/Falcons 3:00: Falcons may play well at home but have struggled in the biggest of games on their turf. Remember, over the last few years under Smith at home in the playoffs, they lost in the 2010 season playoffs 48-21 against Green Bay, got smothered by the Giants 24-2 last year, and choked away a 20 point lead to the Seahawks to blow the cover last week. Defensively, the Falcons are second worst in the league on yardage given up following initial hit. And they struggle against mobile QBs. Cam Newton had huge games this season vs them (502 pass/202 rush). And Russell Wilson thrashed them in the second half last week. They face the most dynamic runner after contact yet in Kaepernick. And throw in that Atlanta will spy Kaepernick with athletic Kroy Biermann, which takes away a defender in the secondary and rusher at point of attack during pass plays. Keep in mind Kaepernick can pass with a receiving corps that developed well this year. And throw in the physical front line of SF and Gore running behind it, Atlanta's defense should be on its heels. On the other hand, Atlanta's offense is good, but the SF defense has consistently been good when healthy. And DT Justin Smith appears back in form. We'll roll with SF.
|
01-13-13 |
Seattle Seahawks +3 v. Atlanta Falcons |
Top |
28-30 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 4 m |
Show
|
|
01-07-13 |
Alabama v. Notre Dame +10 |
Top |
42-14 |
Loss |
-130 |
13 h 31 m |
Show
|
Alabama/Notre Dame 8:30: Alabama presents another dominant defense with a limited mistake offense with QB McCarron; however, keep in mind that 2 of 3 of McCarron's interceptions were in goal-to-goal situations. And Notre Dame's defense, which has limited explosive plays all season, has done its best work when backed up in the red zone; as a matter of fact, ND has given up the lowest percentage of red zone TDs at 24% than any FBS team over the past nine years. Heisman runner up Manti Te'o has extraordinary instincts and his teammate NG Nix he has to thank for the tremendous job at manning two gaps proficiently all season. Alabama will be hard pressed to pound the ball down the Irish' throat. On the other hand, Irish QB Golson has made significant strides over the course of the season and he has a great surrounding cast to work with, including 6'6" 251 pound Eifert who is a nightmare matchup in the red zone. Alabama deserves its hype but keep in mind that the SEC was not their usual dominating self in bowl games this year at 5-3 SU, including disapointing outright losses by LSU and Florida. The 'Tide is just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games. ND's Brian Kelly is masterful in prepping his team and rarely gets beaten handily. And I don't see it happening here either. ND the call.
|
01-06-13 |
Seattle Seahawks -3 v. Washington Redskins |
Top |
24-14 |
Win
|
105 |
5 h 16 m |
Show
|
|
01-05-13 |
Cincinnati Bengals +5 v. Houston Texans |
Top |
13-19 |
Loss |
-110 |
6 h 34 m |
Show
|
Bengals/Texans 4:30: I realize the Texans had the Bengals number in recent matches; however, the Texans' production has really fallen off after three strong months of football. Houston's 1-3 ATS slide has them searching for answers. They're run game has lost it's luster and I don't see them recapturing it here against a staunch Bengals' defense; moreover, the Bengals are strong in third and long on account of their outstanding ability to rush the passer. Bengals are on a 7-1 ATS tear and realize it's meaningless if they can't win a playoff game. We'll look for Marvin Lewis to notch his first playoff win. Bengals play well on the road (4-0 ATS run) and will get it done.
|
01-04-13 |
Texas A&M v. Oklahoma +3.5 |
Top |
41-13 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 58 m |
Show
|
Texas A&M/Oklahoma 8:00: I clearly understand the hype over Manziel and company, which are the trendy pick across the land; however, Oklahoma posts the same record and did finish the year strong. QB Landry Jones completed 67% of his passes down the stretch en route to a 5-0 run. And he'll have WR Jalen Saunders (marijuana ordeal) to throw to. Sure, the Sooners' defense was downright poor stopping the run in the predominant pass heavy Big 12; however, DC Mike Stoops had plenty of time to develop a quality assignment football scheme and drill fundamentals to his veteran athletic troops. We'll look for better gap discipline and tackling tonight. And with OC Kingsbury on to Texas Tech, offensive rhythm could be curtailed. On the other hand, the A&M defense faced only one other Top 20 BCS automatic qualifier this season -- LA Tech in which they snuck by 59-57. A&M's defense will have its hands full tonight as we look for the Sooners to be very competitive.
|
01-01-13 |
Wisconsin v. Stanford -3.5 |
Top |
14-20 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 22 m |
Show
|
Wisconsin/Stanford 5:00: Years ago, Barry Alvarez made us money when he was the man at Wisconsin and he surely has the touch in the Rose Bowl at 3-0; however, I don't believe this is a great matchup for the Badgers. Value added off their crushing win in the Big Ten Championship but Nebraska is equipped with a relative soft run-stop-unit. Stanford possesses one of the best run defenses in the nation allowing just 88 yards per game / 2.9 ypc. We believe the well disciplined Cardinal defense can take away the power run game of Wisconsin and force the Badgers into what they don't do well -- pass. Mediocre QB play by Stave (cleared to play) and Phillips (will start) will most likely not threaten Stanford's secondary. On the other hand, Stanford's QB Hogan took over and turned their offense up several notches with his mobility and accuracy (73%). And he has RB Stephan Taylor and a physical offensive line to attain a comfort level tonight. Stanford a sweet 10-1 ATS in non-conference play and 19-6-1 ATS on grass. Wisconsin just 0-6 ATS after scoring 40+ points. Stanford the call.
|
12-31-12 |
Clemson v. LSU -4.5 |
Top |
25-24 |
Loss |
-105 |
4 h 48 m |
Show
|
|
12-16-12 |
San Francisco 49ers +5 v. New England Patriots |
Top |
41-34 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 56 m |
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49ers/Patriots 8:30: The Patriots are seemingly unstoppable offensively and smothered 4 of their last 6 opponents; however, the SF defense (#2 total defense) will give them trouble. They have two of the top defensive line players in the game (Aldon Smith/Justin Smith), a vicious linebacking corps and heads up secondary. We'll look for the SF defense to put elusive QB Kaepernick and company in good position to put points on the board. SF is 4-1 ATS on the road against a team with a winning road record. NE is a mere 1-5 ATS in the 2nd of back-to-back home games vs .500 or greater opponents. SF the call.
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