Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-04-23 | Clemson v. Duke +13 | 7-28 | Win | 100 | 19 h 6 m | Show | |
Clemson/Duke 8:00: Duke, no longer just a basketball school, as exhibited last year with new HC Mike Elko restoring life in the football program that's been moribund from 2019-21. Elko, whose background was as a defensive coordinator, had his Blue Devils' defense 2nd in the nation in turnover margin. Him and new DC Santucci should be equally strong this season with many returning starters. They'll be facing Cade Klubnik who excites the entire Clemson fanbase as he's coupled with former TCU offensive coordinator - Garrett Riley (yes, same pedigree). He's got good weaponry including RB Shipley. On the other hand, Duke is pretty explosive themselves. Versatile QB Riley Leonard came on the scene last season to lead the Blue Devils to a nine-win season, including a blowout bowl win over UCF. And a major part of that offensive production is back including all seven Duke receivers who caught triple digit numbers from Leonard. Blue Devils have lots of returning production from last year's team and not an easy out. Take the points. |
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09-03-23 | LSU v. Florida State +2 | 24-45 | Win | 100 | 16 h 19 m | Show | |
LSU/Florida State 7:30: One year ago today, Florida State eked out a 24-23 win over LSU. Florida State has a lot of returning production from last year's bowl winning team that finished the year with six straight wins and sported a money making 8-4 ATS mark overall. And well-respected HC Mike Norvell did a solid job surrounding playmaker QB Jayden Daniels with quality athletes and a much-anticipated improved offensive line. LSU, on the other hand, in hands with Brian Kelly who has the Tigers headed in the right direction; however, a lot of top-notch players from last year's stellar team went on to the NFL; as a matter of fact, LSU second to Georgia in terms of losing players (10) to the NFL. And although Kelly has a deep backfield, he won't have dazzling RB Emery (out) or star DT Maason Smith (suspended). No doubt, LSU QB Jayden Daniels is a playmaker, but 'Noles' veteran defense with 10 returning starters, should be up to the task. Take the points. |
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09-02-23 | North Carolina v. South Carolina +2.5 | 31-17 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 9 m | Show | |
North Carolina/South Carolina 7:30: Drake Maye getting an inordinate amount of attention heading into this one. Meanwhile, former Heisman frontrunner Spencer Rattler taking a back seat here. And it may work out best for him. Rattler has done the most damage when he's flying under the radar. Just when you think he's not an NFL caliber QB, he comes back strong. He exhibited that late last season vs Tennessee and then at Clemson. And he did well vs Notre Dame. Beamer has recruited well and surrounded him with a good cast of players. Defensively, they'll need to improve. Fortunately, for the Gamecocks, their secondary won't have Tez Walker (denied transfer by NCAA) running rampant through it. On December 20th of 2021, South Carolina hung 536 total yards on North Carolina. There's a lot of explosive play making in this year's version of the Gamecocks. And the Tar Heels' defense has not improved much under DC Chizik. We'll take the points here. |
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09-01-23 | Stanford v. Hawaii +3 | 37-24 | Loss | -109 | 22 h 52 m | Show | |
Stanford/Hawaii 11:00: Hawaii a bit more established in their program in the second year under Timmy Chang. He actually did a decent job considering what he had to work with. The former Hawaii record setting QB is on an 8-1 ATS run dating back to last year, including a strong effort at Vanderbilt on August 26th. The Warriors outgained Vanderbilt and were in that game late to win. Chang instituted his run-and-shoot offense and QB Schager is now prepared for his 11th career start. On the other hand, Stanford's HC Troy Taylor has yet to announce a starting QB. Taylor, who turned around a moribund Sacramento State team, is in his first year at Stanford and the cupboard was left bare by the dismissed David Shaw. He'll eventually turn around Stanford but I'm going to give the edge to Hawaii based on what I saw from them last week, and the immediate prep by Chang and his staff, who were scheming all spring on this game. Hawaii the call. |
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08-31-23 | NC State v. Connecticut +14 | 24-14 | Win | 100 | 20 h 35 m | Show | |
NC State/U Conn 7:30: U Conn turned in an impressive performance last year under their first year HC Jim Mora. They were a spread darling cashing in on 8 of 11 games. This season, they have a crap load of returning production (#9 in nation) to a team that was embarrassed at NC State last year 41-10. They did, however, cover that game as a 38' road dog. NC State was highly ranked last year but ended up underachieving as they've done for so many years under HC Doeren. They'll no longer have QB Devin Leary (transferred to Kentucky) calling the signals but graduate transfer from Virginia - Brennan Armstrong, who came with his OC Anae, will fill the void nicely. U Conn, however, has been tough in-home openers at 11-3 SU. They too bring in a new QB Joseph Fagnano who put some big numbers up at Maine (5,655 yards 46 TD/12 INTs). We'll take the points with the home dog in this revenge game. |
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08-31-23 | Kent State v. Central Florida -35 | 6-56 | Win | 100 | 18 h 11 m | Show | |
Kent State/UCF 7:00: This one should get ugly quick, and I don't project a back door cover late. UCF, in its third season behind respectable coach Gus Malzahn, is stacked with 15 returning starters from a decent 9-5 season, including their versatile QB Rhys Plumlee. Not only that, but Malzahn was strong in hitting the transfer portal in the offseason, acquiring 19 players from Power Five conferences. On the other hand, Kent State lost a crap load of players and coaches. The Flashes lost 18 players in the transfer portal, including their QB Schlee and their 1,300 yard rusher Cooper. They have just 1 returning starter on the offensive end and are in the bottom tier of the NCAA in recruiting for this year. Needless to say, first year head coach Burns, will have his work cut out for him this season. Lay the wood. |
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01-09-23 | TCU +13 v. Georgia | 7-65 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 49 m | Show | |
TCU/Georgia 7:30: Lots of early action on TCU with the early line but the line hasn't softened as smart money going on Georgia. Smart money not always winning money and I think that applies here. TCU's Sonny Dykes has done an amazing job with the offense this year considering his QB Duggan was the backup after Chandler Morris went down with a knee injury in Game 1 vs Colorado. Duggan filled in like a champ and even finished as a Heisman Finalist. He also has a tremendous supporting cast with one of the best offensive lines in the nation as proven in the Semifinals vs the top defense in the nation. Moreover, even with their 1000+ rusher Kendre Miller going down in the game, reserve Demercado stepped in to rush for 150+ yards behind the mammoth (6'5" 315 lb. average) offensive line! Georgia's run stop unit very strong lead by future NFL top draft choice Jalen Carter; however, he was gassed in that OSU game and TCU has a similar explosive offense with quality depth. Georgia believes their top cover guy Ringo can matchup with matchup nightmare Quentin Johnston, yet no one has stopped him yet. Horned Frogs also have Jaye Barber who could emerge as a go to option if Johnston is bracketed. And the Georgia secondary has given up tons of passing yardage in the SEC Title game (502) and toasted in the Semi-Finals. Defensively, TCU's 3-3-5 scheme is not seen in the SEC. Like Michigan, it will take a while to figure out. TCU defense yields yardage but thrives on creating turnovers as exhibited vs Michigan (2 pick 6). We'll stay on the underdog here as TCU should remain competitive. |
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01-02-23 | Utah v. Penn State | 21-35 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 25 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
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01-02-23 | Tulane +2.5 v. USC | 46-45 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show | |
Tulane/USC 1:00: This year's USC team is defined by Caleb Williams. When he goes, the Trojans go. And that works both ways, as exhibited in the PAC12 Championship after he hurt his hamstring; consequently, the offense fell apart when he was no longer his mobile self. It's been a month since that injury occurred and I believe he's not going to be at his best today. Today, USC faces a similar staunch defense to Utah. Tulane has a Top 20 scoring defense, very good secondary, and they bring the heat on QBs. And Williams won't have his top receiver (Addison) plus two starting linemen Vorhees and Neilon. Defensively, LB Goforth (43 tackles) is in the transfer portal to Washington. USC defense ranks 101st in total yards given up and 112th vs the pass. Tulane offense productive led by mobile QB Pratt (25 TD/5 INT). Take Tulane |
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12-31-22 | Ohio State +6 v. Georgia | 41-42 | Win | 100 | 16 h 53 m | Show | |
OSU/Georgia 8:00: Hypothetically, if OSU plays defense like they did against Michigan, they'll lose big. I don't believe OSU DC Knowles will make that mistake twice. Against Michigan, he prepared the Buckeyes' defense to stack the line, go man coverage with a single high safety or Cover O (no safety) and the Wolverines smoked them with explosive plays routinely in a blowout. Bulldogs have a similar powerful offensive line, great skill personnel and a sharp QB. Knowles was a great coordinator with Oklahoma State and did a bang-up job with Ohio State up until that nightmare day on November 26th in Columbus. Look for Knowles to take a bend don't break philosophy to disallow explosive plays yet tighten in the red zone. As for offensively, OSU has a few injuries to key skill personnel, but Stroud still has a deep receiving corps, including matchup nightmare Marvin Jarrison Jr.. OSU plays the dog role well at 9-0 ATS getting 3 or more points. Take the points. |
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12-31-22 | TCU +8 v. Michigan | 51-45 | Win | 100 | 13 h 35 m | Show | |
TCU/Michigan 4:00: In the Harbaugh era of the Wolverines, they've been the grind it out, run the football, play action team and they're not changing their style nor should they. They have arguably the best offensive line in the nation and very good skill personnel to accomplish what Harbaugh wants this year. Donovan Edwards filled in well for injured Blake Corum, running for 216 vs OSU and 185 vs Purdue. The problem for the Wolverines throughout Harbaugh's tenure has been the teams that have a veteran offensive line with superior athletes in skill positions. Up until this year, Ohio State gassed their defense with up-tempo offense, Alabama beat them up in the 2019 Citrus Bowl and Georgia pulverized them in last year's Semi-Finals in the CFP. This year, with a few coaching changes, addition of better athletes, Wolves are a legitimate contender and no longer an underdog loser in big games, as exhibited by their blowout against OSU. They now go into the pricey favorite role and I'm not quite ready to lay more than a TD here. TCU defense most likely will bend vs the Wolverines but thrive on creating turnovers. Offensively, TCU has thrived under Dykes' offense. Max Duggan and company drop 40.3 PPG on opponents. No one has been able to stop match up nightmare WR Quentin Johnston, and Kendre Miller has been outstanding running behind the veteran TCU offensive line. TCU has too many weapons to get beaten soundly here. We'll take the points. |
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12-31-22 | Kansas State +7 v. Alabama | 20-45 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 14 m | Show | |
Kansas State/Alabama Noon: I won't deny that Alabama will be up for this game on account of being denied in the CFP. Saban and company feel they can take out their frustration on Kansas State here to make a statement to the committee. But he'll have to do it without 5 offensive linemen and 5 wide receivers which entered the transfer portal. Sure, Saban is loaded with 5* two deep and will have QB Bryce Young and #1 draft pick edge player Will Anderson in this game. But don't discount the Chris Klieman who can flat out coach. He sports a 76% career winning percentage and destroyed LSU 42-20 in the Texas Bowl in January. Kansas State has no opt outs and not intimidated. K State has a Top 20 defense and allows only 20.1 PPG. They're highly opportunistic with 16 takeaways. Offensively, well-disciplined with a ground-controlled game led by Deuce Vaughn. QB Will Howard well skilled with a 15/2 TD/INT ratio. Very few weaknesses on K State including quality special teams. We'll take the TD with K State. |
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12-30-22 | Clemson -5.5 v. Tennessee | Top | 14-31 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 46 m | Show |
Tennessee/Clemson 8:00: Tennessee was well on its way to play in the CFP when QB Hooker went down vs South Carolina. Former Michigan QB Joe Milton, who has a rifle of an arm, came in to save the season but couldn't, as the 2nd loss of the season sent them to this bowl. Milton did lead the Volunteers to a decisive blow out win over Vanderbilt, albeit the run game is what gutted the Commodores defense. That won't happen against the well-disciplined Top 20 defense of Clemson. And although Joe Milton has the arm strength to stretch a defense, he doesn't have the accuracy to do it against Clemson's. Furthermore, he won't have his top two receivers - Hyatt and Tillman (NFL draft opt outs). On the other hand, Clemson won't have their starting QB D.J. Uiagalelei who already transferred to Oregon State. And that's a good thing because Klubnik, who came into the game in the ACC Championship and lit up the UNC secondary, is the better option and should have been the starter. Tennessee's secondary (127th in the nation) is not very good. Klubnik should light it up like a torch. Clemson HC Swinney has an excellent bowl record and should have his men finishing strong as a springboard for next year. Clemson the call. |
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12-30-22 | South Carolina +3.5 v. Notre Dame | 38-45 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 30 m | Show | |
Notre Dame/South Carolina 3:30: ND turned in a solid season and looks good going forward. However, a few key opt outs and change of QB should cost them here. TE Mayer (67 catches for 809 yards) was the main go-to weapon of QB Pyne. He opted out as he prepares for the NFL draft. DL Foskey (11 sacks) is a menace to QBs - opted out. And starting corner Hart (shoulder) won't play. Moreover, Tyler Buchner, who started the year as the starting QB, will now take over for Pyne who has already transferred. South Carolina is coming off a great second year under Shane Beamer. And QB Spencer Rattler got into rhythm at the right time down the stretch with an electrifying performance (798 total yards with 8 TDs/2 INTs) vs Tennessee and Clemson. Even though SC has a few opt outs of their own, hard to go against the momentum of South Carolina now. They're 4-1 ATS in non-conference games, including last year's bowl upset win over North Carolina as a 13-point dog under Beamer. We'll take the points here. |
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12-29-22 | Washington +3 v. Texas | 27-20 | Win | 100 | 7 h 52 m | Show | |
Texas/Washington 9:00: Got to question Texas motivation coming into this one. Longhorns had high expectations going into the season but forced to play in Alamo Bowl for the third time in four years. Longhorns' offense is ignited by Doak Walker winner RB Bijon Robinson. His YAC (yards after contact) were off the chart and almost single handedly destroyed Baylor in final game of the year. Washington is sound in their defensive scheme and play the run well. Of course, Texas has super athletes to fill the RB position, but Robinson (opted out) is hard to replace; moreover, their second-best RB Roschon Johnson opted out as well. Texas QB Ewers will be showcasing his talent for BMOC (Big Man on Campus) Arch Manning will be arriving in January to take away his position. Washington secondary not the greatest but they should get help from a solid defensive front that has been successful getting to QB (2.9 sacks per game). Offensively, Washington has the #2 offense in the nation (522 YPG) led by the nation's top yardage producer through the air - Michael Pennix Jr. When he gets in rhythm, he's hard to stop. Texas will not have LB Overshown (NFL opt out) surging downhill. And Overshown and Roschon Johnson were key special teams' players for them as well. With the opt outs and the lack of motivation, I'll take the field goal with a hungry Washington (4-0 ATS non-conference) team eager to win a bowl. |
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12-29-22 | Oklahoma v. Florida State -9.5 | 32-35 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 5 m | Show | |
Oklahoma/Florida State 5:30: Mike Norvell is guiding Florida State in the right winning direction nowadays. And he has a tendency to close regular season games strong. He posted strong November winning marks at Memphis, and he did again this year with the Seminoles; however, as a word of caution, he went SU/ATS with Memphis in bowl games and that's a concern. But given the situation with nearly a fully loaded team eager to restore the winning tradition of bowl success from the Bowden and Fisher days, we'll lay the wood but with caution. Florida State has not won a bowl game since 2017. Florida State closed the season strong and looks good on both sides of the ball. QB Jordan Travis had a breakout year in a productive offense and the 'Noles have a Top 20 defense. Oklahoma, on the other hand, struggled mightily defensively this year. They're 120th in yards allowed and allow nearly 30 PPG! Moreover, the opt outs are plentiful: both starting offensive tackles (Morris & Henderson), RB Eric Gray, DT Redmond to name a few. The 'Noles are a solid 6-1 ATS as a non-conference favorite of less than 14 points. Given the direction these teams are going at this point, we'll lay the wood with Florida State. |
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12-28-22 | Ole Miss v. Texas Tech +4 | 25-42 | Win | 100 | 19 h 17 m | Show | |
Texas Tech/Ole Miss 9:00: Now that big time QB Tyler Shough is back healthy, I'll take the points here. After recovering from collarbone injury, Shough came back for the last 3 games full time and Tech rolled. HC McGuire did a solid job in his first year at the helm. Tech defense not the greatest but they make plays. Rebels went 0-3 ATS down the stretch and 1-3-1 ATS off a SU loss. Both teams pretty much at full strength with no major opt outs. We'll take the points. |
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12-28-22 | North Carolina +13 v. Oregon | 27-28 | Win | 100 | 19 h 8 m | Show | |
Oregon/North Carolina 8:00: Both starting QBs will play. Nix for Oregon and Drake Maye for NC. Maye won't have his top receiver - Downs (NFL prep). Won't panic there for Mack Brown had solid recruiting classes the last few years and has really good skill players to see the field today. Oregon has some key personnel opting out of this one, however. C Gonzale (4 INTs), LB Sewell (56 tackles), DE DJ Johnson (6 sacks). Not a fan of Tar Heels' defense which is in the lower echelon of college football. However, the Tar Heels have enough offense to trade points and stay in games. 14 of the last 18 losses by Mack Brown have been one possession games. We'll look for NC to stay in this one. |
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12-28-22 | Central Florida +3.5 v. Duke | 13-30 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 41 m | Show | |
Central Florida/Duke 2:00: Great season by Duke as first year HC Elko did an amazing job. But Malzahn no joke. He did a solid job in his second year. He's dealing with a few key players going into the transfer portal; however, UCF is deep in athletes. A veteran team with lots of players logging minutes on last year's bowl winning team. QB Plumlee, who was not healthy late in season, is healthy and ready to roll. UCF 4-1 ATS off SU loss. Malzahn lost his DC Travis Williams to Arkansas but defensive back coach Addison Williams may be an upgrade. We'll take the points here with another strong American Athletic Conference team to do well in the bowls. |
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12-27-22 | Oklahoma State v. Wisconsin -3.5 | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 21 h 47 m | Show | |
Oklahoma State/Wisconsin 10:15: These two teams will be shells of what they were during the regular season. Both QBs Sanders (Oklahoma State) and Mertz (Wisconsin) are transferring. Badgers have their starting NG out and LG out. Oklahoma State, however, has been hit hard by the transfer portal with 11 players transferring. Their defense under first year DC Mason was horrific compared to last year under Knowles. They went from the best defense in the Big 12 to the worst. They were 96th against the run allowing 171 YPG. Gundy's team was rolling early led by their normal potent offensive attack but the declining health of their QB Sanders led to a dismal 2-5 SU slide where they averaged a paltry 14 PPG. Wisconsin will have a new coach next season (Fickell from Cincinnati). The defensive coordinator Leonard, who did a rock solid job with this club for years, is the interim coach. The guys will play hard for him in his last game. And offensively, Badgers are deeply rooted in running the football for decades. That won't change today with mostly likely starter - QB Miles Burkett. He's got 1100+ yard rusher Braelon Allen playing behind some still quality offensive linemen. Lay the points with Wisconsin. |
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12-27-22 | Utah State v. Memphis -7 | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show | |
Memphis/Utah State: Memphis has the edge in offensive prowess with record setting QB Henigan. Aggies more ball control with RB Calvin Tyler Jr.; however, the only problem is that he opted out of this game. Memphis plays pretty sound defense considering the high octane offense they possess. The Aggies are among the nation's least-disciplined teams when it comes to penalties, and they struggle to win the turnover battle. The Tigers are far sounder in both areas and have the passing attack to deliver. We'll lay the TD. |
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12-26-22 | New Mexico State v. Bowling Green -3 | 24-19 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 16 m | Show | |
12-23-22 | Houston v. UL-Lafayette +7 | 23-16 | Push | 0 | 14 h 17 m | Show | |
UL-Lafayette/Houston 3:00: Houston clearly has the more potent offense with Tune and company; however, defensively, they allow teams back in games. Six of Houston's 12 games came down to a final drive - 3 in OT. Ragin' Cajuns have an opportunistic defense that's forced 23 turnovers and Houston has had their share (95th in nation) this season. ULL has a ball hawking secondary (15 picks) led by Bralen Trahan (4). And despite a few early NFL prep defectors, they still have Zi'yon Hill who is seeking the career sack record of 22 today. Offensively, 'Cajuns in good hands with Wooldridge 15/5 TD/INT and Chandler Fields, plus a decent run game with RB Chris Smith. Disturbing trend for Houston's HC Holgorsen whose teams are 8-22 ATS with rest, including 1-12 ATS when coming off a loss. Take the points with ULL. |
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12-22-22 | Air Force v. Baylor -3.5 | 30-15 | Loss | -110 | 43 h 55 m | Show | |
Air Force/Baylor 7:30: Great season for AF but schedule maker was kind. Last game of the season vs San Diego State was their biggest win. As for Baylor, they slugged it out in the Big12 including trading blows with CFP #3 TCU. HC Aranda was upset with defense this year and fired his DC and Special Teams/Safeties coaches. Aranda takes over the defense and that's a good thing. He was LSU's DC when they won the National Championship in 2019. Aranda will see to it that attention to detail is made in assignment football against the dangerous Flex Bone Option of AF. He's had plenty of time to study it and Baylor has the athletes to execute. We'll jump on Baylor here. |
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12-21-22 | South Alabama -3 v. Western Kentucky | 23-44 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 45 m | Show | |
Western Kentucky/South Alabama 9:00: Jaguars turned in one of their best seasons ever on account of great defense and an efficient offense. They sport the 4th best rushing defense allowing just 90 YPG. And 14th scoring defense allowing just 20.5 PPG. They'll have their hands full with the potent offense of QB Austin Reed and company. Look for the Jaguars to pound 1000+ yard rusher Webb to keep the Hilltoppers' offense off the field. Hilltoppers' stop unit gives up a ton of yards. And QB Carter Bradley has a few quality receivers in Wayne (795 yards) and Lacy (756 yards). Jaguars the call. |
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12-20-22 | Toledo -3.5 v. Liberty | 21-19 | Loss | -108 | 6 h 44 m | Show | |
Liberty/Toledo 7:30: Liberty was cruising along and even upset Arkansas November 5th. Then the crap hit the fan when word circulated that HC Hugh Freeze was going to Auburn. The Flames plummeted on an 0-3 SU/ATS slide capped off by a blowout loss to lightweight New Mexico State. Liberty will be in good hands after the season with Jamey Chadwell who went 31-6 SU over the last 3 seasons with Coastal Carolina. But as for now, the Flames will have to make do with interim HC Josh Aldridge (LB/DC). It sure looks like Liberty players shut it down on him. As for Toledo, they're coming off their first MAC title win under Jason Candle. They haven't won a bowl game under him yet in 4 attempts. Candle has his best squad yet. A solid defense led by All-American corner Mitchell. And offensively, versatile QB Finn. We'll lay the points with Toledo. |
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12-20-22 | Eastern Michigan +4 v. San Jose State | 41-27 | Win | 100 | 13 h 45 m | Show | |
Eastern Michigan/San Jose State 3:30: Eastern Michigan hadn't been to a bowl game since 1987 before Chris Creighton arrived. Including today, he's taken the Eagles bowling five times since 2016. They've covered 3 of those 4 bowls keeping it competitive. EM has been a solid traveler under Creighton and always dangerous as a dog. Eagles are a hungry scrappy team that stays in games. SJS has a great defense but lays eggs in bowl games under Brennan. Take the points. |
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12-19-22 | Connecticut v. Marshall -11.5 | 14-28 | Win | 100 | 14 h 31 m | Show | |
Marshall/Connecticut 2:30: U Conn had a solid season as Jim Mora Jr. guided the Huskies to their first bowl appearance since 2015. Fortunately for the Huskies, their schedule enabled them to have some success. A win over Fresno State was doable primarily because the Bulldogs' starting QB was out. A win over Liberty happened November 12th on account of heavy Hugh Freeze rumors circulating he was going to Auburn. Huskies have a long way to go on the recruiting trail. U Conn does have a decent run game with Victor Rosa but that's as far as it goes. QB Zion Turner poses no threat on the ground (2.8 YPC) and no vertical passing game. Huskies face the #7 scoring defense in the nation, #5 vs the run, and well-schooled in the secondary. The pedestrian offense of U Conn should be suffocated Monday afternoon. On the other hand, Marshall does have some athletic prowess with a well-balanced offense (205 YPG rush/200 YPG pass) and a decent signal caller in Laborn. This Marshall team knocked off Notre Dame September 10th and beat some quality Sun Belt teams. We'll lay the points. |
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12-16-22 | Troy v. UTSA -1 | 18-12 | Loss | -107 | 14 h 5 m | Show | |
12-16-22 | Miami-OH +12 v. UAB | 20-24 | Win | 100 | 10 h 24 m | Show | |
12-10-22 | Navy -2.5 v. Army | 17-20 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 44 m | Show | |
Navy/Army 3:00: Both teams well versed on each other which is why this game has been low scoring for 16 straight years. Both teams will throw about 4 or 5 passes combined, if that. Navy has the edge in defense where they're 4th in the nation against the run allowing just 85.8 YPG. On the other hand, Army defense allows a generous 193.6 YPG (115th). And Navy had the tougher schedule. They played the likes of SMU, Houston, Cincinnati, Notre Dame and UCF: All potent offensive teams. Army did well vs UTSA early in the season, got blasted by Wake Forest. Both teams, of course, lost to Air Force in competitive games. Army has a bit more experienced QB in Cade Ballard. And the Midshipmen won't have their season starter Lavatai (knee) but Arline (4 YPC) came in and did a nice job down the stretch with a bit more running strength. Maynor, who has a better arm is used occasionally. Their go-to-runner is FB FoFana (749 yards/6 TDs). He's a beast of a FB and can gut a weak interior as the game goes on. Navy the call. |
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12-03-22 | Purdue +17 v. Michigan | Top | 22-43 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 9 m | Show |
Purdue/Michigan 8:00: Michigan off a huge upset of Ohio State. Harbaugh should have them prepared and at even keel tonight facing the Boilermakers. Michigan is well rooted in the CFP so this won't be an absolute must win. For Purdue, they have nothing to lose. And let it be known, Purdue is dangerous under HC Brohm vs ranked opponents going 7-6 SU; moreover, he's an incredible 22-6 ATS as a dog of 4+ points including 2-0 SU/ATS in that role this season. Take the points. |
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12-03-22 | Kansas State +2 v. TCU | 31-28 | Win | 100 | 10 h 58 m | Show | |
Kansas State/TCU Noon: Undefeated TCU in the driver's seat to create their own destiny and secure a birth in the CFP. Even a competitive loss most likely won't eliminate them from the Final Four. TCU has explosive skill personnel (RB Miller, QB Duggan, WR Johnston), a veteran offensive line and solid defensively. But we won't discount the surging K State Wildcats that went on a 4-1 SU/ATS run after losing to TCU October 22nd. They had TCU on the ropes in the first half building an 18-point lead before the Horned Frogs exploded for 28 unanswered to secure the win in Fort Worth. The 'Cats made nice adjustments going forward averaging 40.2 PPG over their last 5 games. Don't discount the coaching ability of Chris Klieman. This guy won 4 FCS National Championships in 5 seasons while at North Dakota State University. He knows how to prepare for these big games, and he has the personnel to deliver. QB Will Howard has been rock solid in 5 appearances (13 TD/2 INT) after taking over for Adrien Martinez (leg). And 1200+ yard rusher Vaughn has a veteran line to keep him rolling here. Defensively, K-State allows just 19.4 PPG (15th in the nation). On the other hand, Sonny Dykes, who's done an unbelievable job in coaching TCU up this season, does have something to prove. He's had trouble in closing out seasons; as a matter of fact, he's a money burning 0-4 SU/ATS in his final game of the season while at SMU, including 0-1 SU/ATS in Bowls. We'll look for K-State to deliver. |
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12-02-22 | Utah v. USC -2 | Top | 47-24 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 12 m | Show |
Utah/USC 8:00: USC a win away from playing in the CFP for the first time. With OSU on their tail, they must win and possibly convincingly to deliver no doubt in CFP Management Committee's mind. Utah no joke; after all, they're well coached under Whittingham and will always play hard. And on paper, Utah has a much better defense, solid special teams and a productive Top 20 offense. However, a closer look reveals Utah has not covered all season vs a winning team (0-4 ATS). And Cameron Rising had a big opportunity at Oregon November 19th to take Utah to another level but flopped miserably with three interceptions costing his team the win. Sure, he helped deliver a controversial SU win (loss ATS) over USC October 15th in the comfortable confines of Rice-Eccles Stadium. Tonight, in Las Vegas, I see the Heisman Trophy frontrunner - Caleb Williams and the explosive, yet efficient (1 turnover) USC offense getting the job done. And don't put a whole lot of stock into the yielding defense of USC (allow 405 YPG). They have a ball hawking secondary and created 21 takeaways - 2nd nationally! USC delivers! |
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11-26-22 | Notre Dame +5 v. USC | 27-38 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 59 m | Show | |
Notre Dame/USC 7:30: Recently, ND has gotten the best of this series at 4-0 SU; however, this year's USC loaded with talent under new HC Lincoln Riley. He brought with him plenty of dudes including Heisman favorite - Caleb Williams and stole big play receiver Addison away from Pittsburgh. It surely will be Williams' Heisman moment if he can lead his team to victory over the toughest defense that he's faced all season. ND has a well versed secondary and can get to the QB (3 sacks per game). And ND HC Marcus Freeman has his team playing great football at the right time. The Irish are on a 5-game win streak of 39.8 PPG, including dropping 35 on Clemson. QB Drew Pyne has been efficient this season primarily because he's got a strong run game with Estime and Diggs who have each grinded out 5 YPC. TE Mayer has been Pyne's go-to-guy. USC has not played any team worth a note outside the offensive minded PAC 12. USC defense has been vulnerable to the pass but do have a nation leading 18 takeaways. I'm going to look for ND to maintain their discipline, hold onto the football and continue their success running the football, eating clock to keep the explosive Caleb Williams and company off the field. Take the points with ND. |
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11-26-22 | Michigan State v. Penn State -18.5 | 16-35 | Win | 100 | 12 h 49 m | Show | |
11-26-22 | Oregon v. Oregon State +3 | 34-38 | Win | 100 | 14 h 56 m | Show | |
Oregon/Oregon State 3:30: Beavers' HC Jonathan Smith has done an outstanding job bringing this football program back to respectability. And any team that comes into Corvallis, better be prepared for a fight. The Beavers are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 home games under Smith, including battling #5 ranked USC to a 17-14 SU loss but cover (+5). Oregon is coming into this one off a physical battle with Utah. The Ducks have a few starting linemen questionable with injuries and QB Nix (leg). Meanwhile, Beavers coming off an impressive beat down of Arizona State on the road. OSU a perfect 9-0 ATS off a SU win of 20+. Beavers' offense efficient with QB Ben Gulbranson (5-1 as a starter) winning the job. He's tossed 8 TD to just 1 INT. The offense revolves around bruising RB Damien Martinez who has rushed for 100+ in 5 straight games. And defensively, OSU sports a very good defense which is #25 in yards allowed and #27 in points allowed (20.3 PPG). OSU has covered 2 of the last 3 in this series including an outright in 2020. Look for the under the radar Beavers to deliver the goods. |
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11-26-22 | Michigan v. Ohio State -7.5 | 45-23 | Loss | -105 | 87 h 25 m | Show | |
Michigan/Ohio State Noon: Revenge game for the Buckeyes, who were embarrassed at Ann Arbor last season. As a result of that loss, Buckeyes made offseason changes in their coaching staff that helped tremendously. They brought in highly successful DC of Oklahoma State's Top 10 defense last season - Jim Knowles. He's reshaped the dynamic of the OSU defense successfully for they're a Top 10 defense in allowing yards per play (5th nationally) and scoring (#10). And he's used a majority of the same personnel. Today, they'll focus on taking away the power run game of Michigan, which was a big problem last year for them. Michigan gutted them for nearly 300 yards! With Michigan's top horse and Heisman Finalist - Blake Corum recovering from a knee injury, it will be an uphill battle. The Wolves struggled to gain traction offensively vs another top tier defense last week at home vs Illinois scoring 19 points. Illinois, however, doesn't have the explosive offense that OSU possesses. QB Stroud, WR Harrison Jr., WR Egbuka are big play skill personnel and, by far, the best offense Michigan has played all season. And the Buckeyes, which are battling some running back injuries themselves, are loaded with skill personnel. Wolves have not fared well in Columbus. They've lost nine straight there since 2001. And btw, OSU 14-1 ATS with revenge vs greater than .500 opponent at home in Big 10 play. Buckeyes deliver. |
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11-25-22 | Florida +10 v. Florida State | 38-45 | Win | 100 | 19 h 57 m | Show | |
Florida/Florida State 7:30: Florida is coming off a stunner vs Vanderbilt, a team they've dismantled for decades. Look for the Gators to bounce back strong here. Florida has been consistently inconsistent throughout the season and Napier is a well-versed coach who will keep them focused and in the game. Gators need to establish the run like they did so well against TX A&M and S. Carolina to take pressure off versatile QB Richardson. FSU on a hot 4-0 SU/ATS run but not exactly against Murderer's Row: Georgia Tech, Miami U, fading Syracuse, and ULL. Take Florida |
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11-25-22 | Baylor +10 v. Texas | Top | 27-38 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
Baylor/Texas Noon: Two teams near evenly matched in a lot of ways. Both with solid run games, good defenses, well coached. Baylor has gone 3-0-1 ATS in this series including an outright last season. And Baylor will surely not roll over here after heartbreaking loss last week to TCU. Bears are 5-1 ATS off a SU loss, and they're 5-1-1 ATS in Austin. They'll surely try to establish the run game vs Texas; after all, Baylor has grinded out 230+ yards in 4 of its last 5 games behind a mammoth OL. Reese has carried a majority of the load. Shapen is at his best when the run game is cooking. On the other side of the ball, Aranda has developed another rock-solid defense to counter explosive NFL bound RB Bijan Robinson and a solid QB in Ewers. Baylor leads the conference in interceptions in 13. Too many points to give this team. Baylor an amazing 16-0 ATS as conference dogs of more than 4 points vs an opponent off a SU/ATS win. Texas has failed to cover in two attempts this season coming off blowout wins. Baylor the call. |
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11-24-22 | Mississippi State +2.5 v. Ole Miss | 24-22 | Win | 100 | 17 h 54 m | Show | |
Miss State/Ole Miss 7:00: Rivalry of Mississippi which went to Ole Miss the last two years. Tonight, we'll look for Mississippi State and veteran QB Will Rogers to finally deliver. The dog has covered 5 of the last 6 in this series. The road team is 6-1 ATS. Both teams struggling down the stretch as the Rebels went 1-3 SU while Miss State went 2-2 SU. Kiffin and his Rebels to it on the chin last week at Arkansas. Kiffin is a money burning 2-11 ATS at home when his team is coming off a double-digit loss. Leach had a much easier time last week with a mere scrimmage like blowout of East Tenn State. Roll with the Bulldogs of Miss State in this one. |
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11-19-22 | Utah -2 v. Oregon | 17-20 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 13 m | Show | |
Utah/Oregon 10:30: Utah has a deeply rooted football program under Whittingham. Kyle Whittingham has been HC for 18 years at Utah. And he doesn't flip staffs regularly like lots of others in the PAC 12. Oregon, on the other hand, has another first year HC Lanning who coordinated a great defense at Georgia last year; however, a coach has to have the horses to compete at a high level and he doesn't. He's reshuffled the secondary routinely and met his match last week when Washington went into Autzen Stadium and dropped 400+ yards passing on them. Oregon just 9-19 ATS after allowing 288 yards+ passing. Sure, the Ducks have an explosive offense but this is one of the better defenses they faced all year. Utah is a Top 20 defense across the board. The last time Oregon faced a Top 20 defense, they got mauled 49-3 (Georgia in Week 1). Utah blasted Oregon last year late in the regular season 38-7 and then followed up in the PAC12 Playoffs 38-10. And most of the Utes from that team are back including versatile QB Cameron Rising. Utah is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 November tilts and road savvy. Take Utah |
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11-19-22 | Iowa v. Minnesota -2.5 | Top | 13-10 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
Iowa/Minnesota 4:00 Iowa has owned this series to the tune of 7-0 SU/6-0-1 ATS. But in the bitter cold of Huntington Bank Stadium where temperatures are dropping to 10 degrees with 14 MPH winds, Gophers should pull this one out today. Sure, Iowa is winning games with a Top 10 defense and special teams with little contribution from an offense ranked 130th in the nation. But Iowa offensive struggles should prove to be costly here. Gophers should hitch the wagon to their horse - RB Mo Ibrahim who has 18 consecutive starts with 100+ yards. And he's tough. 70% of his 1261 rush yards have come after contact - most of any Power 5 player. Four quarters of pounding him behind the mammoth Minnesota offensive line which averages 6'5" 318 pounds per person, should eventually cave in the Iowa defense. On the other hand, Gophers' defense very stout - 8th in the nation in yards allowed and 4th in the nation in points allowed. Going to be tough for Iowa to move the football. And I do realize the Hawkeyes are rolling on a 3-0 SU/ATS run; however, they're 0-12 ATS after three consecutive ATS wins. Minnesota the call. |
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11-19-22 | Miami-FL v. Clemson -18.5 | 10-40 | Win | 100 | 16 h 30 m | Show | |
Miami Fla/Clemson 3:30: Miami Fla put a whipping on bottom feeder of the ACC Georgia Tech but traveling to Clemson late in the season will be a major challenge. The 'Canes got good work out of their freshman QB Jacurri Brown last week in his first collegiate start; however, he's taking on a whole different animal today at Clemson. The Hurricanes have not shown they can handle winning at 0-4 ATS off a SU win. Clemson is in a fight to stay relevant in the BCS in hoping one of the Top 4 loses and they impress the committee with blowouts in last 2 games. It should start here. Clemson has blown out Miami in its last 3 meetings. Clemson the call. |
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11-19-22 | Ohio State -27 v. Maryland | 43-30 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 20 m | Show | |
Maryland/Ohio State 3:30: Maryland continues its late season collapse under Locksley. I had Penn State as the Top Play last week and they didn't disappoint by destroying Maryland. The Terps couldn't generate anything offensively last week. Tagovailoa threw for a paltry 74 yards and was sacked 7 times. Now he has to face the Buckeyes much-improved defense from a season ago. DC Knowles has done some amazing things for the Buckeyes in his first year in Columbus. The Buckeyes have blown out Maryland the last 2 meetings, including 73-14 in 2019 and 66-17 last season. With an even more dominant defense and a continued machine-like offensive attack, another blowout is expected as OSU has its eye on staying relevant in the Top 4. |
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11-16-22 | Eastern Michigan +8 v. Kent State | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 1 h 42 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
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11-15-22 | Ohio -3.5 v. Ball State | 32-18 | Win | 100 | 19 h 2 m | Show | |
Ohio U/Ball State 7:00: Bobcats have serious momentum heading into tonight; after all, they've rattled off 6 straight covers (5-1 SU), and with a win tonight, land a spot in the MAC Championship game. Cardinals, on the other hand, are coming off a loss but are one win away from a Bowl bid. We'll look for Ohio U to deny, or at least postpone that tonight. Ohio U sports arguably the best QB in the conference in Kurtis Rourke. He's thrown for 3000+ yards and has quality playmakers in Cross, Jones and Wiglusz. Although Ball State's defense seems up for the challenge on paper, they've allowed a generous 185 YPG on the ground. Ohio U's run game is pretty effective too with Sieh Bangura running the rock behind a quality offensive line. Ball State offense relies on 1000+ rusher Caron Steele. He's good! But QB John Paddock has made questionable decisions when forced to throw resulting in 11 INTs for the season. Ohio U does not play the pass well but have gotten better secondary play during their winning run. Cards should get their share of points, but I don't believe they can trade points with the well-oiled machine of the Bobcats' offense. Cards are just 3-9 ATS at home vs a winning team and have lost three straight in this series. Ohio U the call. |
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11-12-22 | Maryland v. Penn State -10.5 | 0-30 | Win | 100 | 13 h 24 m | Show | |
Maryland/Penn State 12:30: Maryland is at it again with their late season slide. Now 0-11 SU/ATS during the regular season following a win from "game seven" out over the last 10 seasons. On the other hand, Penn State turning it up as the season winds down on a 3-0 ATS run. Maryland wants revenge from last year's blowout loss but they're not going to get it. Nittany Lions 9-0 ATS as home favorite of less than 15 points vs .500 or greater opponent with revenge. Penn State the call. |
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11-12-22 | Purdue +7 v. Illinois | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show | |
Purdue/Illinois Noon: Purdue has owned this series including last season's 13-9 slugfest win. And the Boilermakers are 3-1 ATS at Champaign. Both of these teams coming off a loss. Illinois couldn't punch the ball in last week at home vs Michigan State. Purdue got choked out by a tough Iowa team. Illinois has the Top Defense in the NCAA but does face arguably the best offense they've faced all year. Aiden O'Connell and company are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 after accumulating less than 170 yards passing. Sure, Illinois has lockdown corner Devon Witherspoon who most likely will take away top Purdue receiver Charlie Jones; however, Durham and Downing will have to step up their game. And 600+ rushing yard RB Mockobee can be leaned on. Purdue defense gives up yardage but solid in the red zone and that is where Illinois struggles. And keep in mind that Jeff Brohm (HC) is a sweet 20-6 ATS as a dog of 4+ points, including a perfect 10-0 ATS off a loss. Purdue which is one game behind Illinois in the West Division will find a way to stay in this one. |
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11-12-22 | Rutgers +10.5 v. Michigan State | 21-27 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show | |
Rutgers/Michigan State Noon: Rutgers may not be able to compete yet with the likes of Ohio State, Michigan or even Minnesota; however, they can be competitive vs the Spartans. The visitor in this series is 5-0 ATS. The Rutgers' offense sputters with QB Winsatt but MSU defense is yielding. Spartans allow a generous 427 YPG and have just 2 takeaways. Meanwhile, Scarlett Knights have a solid secondary and 18th in the nation in yards allowed. Sure, MSU blasted Rutgers 31-13 last year but that was with Kenneth Walker III (Seahawks #1) was running roughshod through secondaries. Spartans can't be trusted off a SU dog win at 1-9 ATS. Take the double digits. |
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11-12-22 | Oklahoma v. West Virginia +9 | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show | |
Oklahoma/West Virginia Noon: For the most part, Mounties have played well in Morgantown this season. A few breaks here and there and WV could be 3-1 ATS at home; for example, a last second bomb against TCU did them in on a cover. The OT loss to KU was inexcusable early in the season. But J.T. Daniels hangs in the pocket well and needs his receivers to step up. They've dropped too many balls. We'll look for the Mounties to get it together here; after all, they have a nine-game losing streak in this series and face the weakest Oklahoma defense in years. HC Neal Brown is a sweet 11-3 ATS when coming off a loss of 14+. We'll take the generous number of points. |
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11-08-22 | Ohio v. Miami-OH +2.5 | 37-21 | Loss | -107 | 2 h 51 m | Show | |
11-08-22 | Eastern Michigan -6.5 v. Akron | 34-28 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 21 m | Show | |
Eastern Michigan/Akron 7:00: Eastern Michigan has been a good traveler in Creighton's tenure. And they're extremely dangerous on the road off a loss under Chris Creighton; as a matter of fact, they're 23-5-1 ATS on the road when coming off a loss. Tonight, they face a down and out Akron team that's constantly rebuilding. They've lost 8 straight games, been competitive in a few, but fade late in games. First, they don't have a run game (129th in NCAA), they turn the ball over frequently (129th), and have a defense that can't stop anyone (allow 37 PPG). Their duel threat QB DJ Irons has some talented receivers to go to, but the line can't hold up long enough for him to complete passes. Irons has been sacked a ridiculous 5.2 times per game. EM defense only has 14 sacks on the season, but Jose Ramirez has 7 of them and 12 TFL's. He's surely licking his chops to play tonight. Offensively, the Eagles use two QBs: traditional drop-back Taylor Powell and mobile Austin Smith. They're helped considerably by the rushing of RB Samson Evans who has 722 rush yards on the year along with 9 rushing TDs. Eastern Michigan is a win away from going bowling and it should come here. We'll lay the points. |
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11-05-22 | Clemson -3.5 v. Notre Dame | 14-35 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 30 m | Show | |
Clemson/Notre Dame 7:30: Well rested Clemson, ranked #4 in College Football Playoff Rankings, should turn it up a notch here. They got a scare vs Syracuse on the 22nd and were fortunate to have Fr QB Cade Klubnik come in to rally the Tigers past the Orangemen in the second half. Tigers are deep in a lot of areas and sport a better scoring defense than their counterpart. Clemson is notorious for playing down to their opponent at times but should come out swinging for the fences tonight against the surging Irish who won 5 of their last 6. Tigers are 5-1 ATS on the road vs a team with a winning home record. Take Clemson. |
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11-05-22 | Tennessee +9.5 v. Georgia | 13-27 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 14 m | Show | |
Tennessee/Georgia 3:30: It isn't often the #1 ranked team in college football is GETTING points to near double digits! Georgia, of course, is incensed that a team they beat 41-17 last year is ranked higher than them. Nevertheless, the road to the NCAA Championship usually goes through Alabama. And the Vol's took them down on the 15th. So far, no team has been capable of slowing down the Tennessee offense (#1 nationally). Georgia's defense not what it was a year ago. And the Bulldogs won't have star LB Nolan Smith (out) in the lineup. Moreover, Bulldogs only sacking QB at a 1.2 SPG clip this season, not nearly as dominant as last year's bunch. I do realize Tennessee's pass defense leaves a lot to be desired - ranked in bottom tier of NCAA; however, Hendon Hooker and company can trade points with the best of them. We'll grab the points. |
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11-05-22 | Baylor +3.5 v. Oklahoma | Top | 38-35 | Win | 100 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
Baylor/Oklahoma 3:00: Both teams run the football well, have above average QBs and athletes who can make plays; however, the difference is in the defensive execution. Oklahoma has been gutted on the ground to the tune of 198 YPG. Baylor's defense allows just 113 YPG. Baylor will surely attempt to exploit the Sooners' run stop unit with leading rusher Reese; consequently, that should eventually open the RPO windows vs the Sooners' linebackers. On the other hand, defensive minded Baylor HC Aranda should have his unit well prepared to face QB Gabriel and company. Baylor's covered this series for 4 straight and finally have near equal talent as Oklahoma. Oklahoma 1-5 ATS before West Virginia and 0-5 ATS at home vs an opponent off back-to-back SU/ATS wins. Baylor the call. |
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11-05-22 | Florida v. Texas A&M -2.5 | 41-24 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 36 m | Show | |
Florida/Texas A&M Noon: Texas A&M severely underachieving considering Jimbo Fisher nabbed the #1 recruiting class for 2022. Sitting at 3-5 SU and in danger of missing out on a bowl bid, look for the Aggies to turn it around here. Fisher is sticking with QB Conner Weigman after his strong outing vs Ole Miss last week. The Aggies desperately need of establishing a ground game. They've been outrushed in 6 of last 7 games going 2-5 SU. Today, they face a struggling run stop unit in a defense that's allowing nearly 30 PPG. Florida is 1-6 ATS before facing South Carolina and an amazing 0-11 ATS vs an opponent off a SU loss the last 2 1/2 seasons! This series has been closely contested but like A&M to eke out the win and cover at home. |
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11-04-22 | Duke -9.5 v. Boston College | 38-31 | Loss | -118 | 18 h 2 m | Show | |
11-02-22 | Central Michigan +6 v. Northern Illinois | 35-22 | Win | 100 | 20 h 31 m | Show | |
Central Michigan/Northern Illinois 7:00: Chippewas 7-1 ATS in the last 8 in this series, 4-0 ATS at DeKalb, we'll grab the dog which is 7-1 ATS in this series. Central Michigan looking to avenge last year's 38-39 loss at Mt. Pleasant, should be on their game tonight. Right now the status of CM star running back - Lew Nichols III is questionable. He's a big time back that led the nation in yards from scrimmage last year, he is an NFL prospect and loves the prime-time stage and I believe he'll suit up tonight. CM in desperate need of a run game to help out QB Daniel Richardson. Richardson is a solid QB (13 TD/4 TD) but not as mobile as versatile QB Bauer who is a good changeup when the offense stalls. NIU is yielding defensively and allow a generous 33 PPG. Their weakness is the secondary that is torched for 268 YPG. CMU defense not great but better than their counterpart. CMU can bring pressure. CM defense has recorded 24 sacks (15th in nation) with playmaker Incoom recording 7. What has been hurting CM is their turnovers. NIU does not have the most opportunistic defense and should allow the Chippewas' offense to establish rhythm, especially if Nichols goes. Coach Mcelwain has a solid late season record and the Chippewas are overdue to get it rolling tonight. Take CM |
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10-29-22 | Pittsburgh +3 v. North Carolina | 24-42 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 31 m | Show | |
Pittsburgh/North Carolina 8:00: Mack Brown underachieved with his 2021 team after pre-season polls had them at #10. This year, UNC sits at 6-1 SU but has one of the worst defenses in the NCAA including 109th vs the run. Fortunately, he has a great QB in versatile QB Drake Maye that makes plays. But Brown continues to burn money for bettors as a favorite at 3-8 ATS last 11. Sure, UNC is coming off a bye, but history suggests trouble as UNC is 0-6 ATS in last 6 with rest. Pittsburgh is coming off a loss at Louisville, but Narduzzi is a dangerous 6-0 ATS following a defeat. And Narduzzi loves to pound the rock and with much success this year with RB Abanikanda (959 rush yards). Pitt also has a quality QB in Slovis who can torch a secondary that's given up 290 YPG. Pittsburgh the call. |
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10-29-22 | TCU v. West Virginia +7.5 | 41-31 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 56 m | Show | |
TCU/West Virginia Noon: We won't sleep on West Virginia in Morgantown where they're a different team than they are on the road. QB J.T. Daniels didn't have a good game last week (3 INTs) but he should be locked in at home today. He's got some good receiving weaponry including Bryce Ford-Wheaton and a decent offensive line that needs to open holes in the running game without Mathis Jr. We'll look for them to get it done vs Sonny Dykes' TCU Horned Frogs that have a tendency to get down early. They've made dramatic comebacks to go undefeated but could be shocked here in Morgantown; after all, WV has covered 4 straight in this series at home. And let's not forget that HC Neal Brown is a sweet 11-2 ATS in games off a loss of 14+. West Virginia the call. |
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10-29-22 | Notre Dame v. Syracuse -1 | 41-24 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 26 m | Show | |
Notre Dame/Syracuse Noon: Syracuse has made a dramatic turnaround from a season ago. Last year, they had young talent but couldn't finish games. This season, lots of those players are back and coached up under HC Babers and staff. They're 6-1 and could be undefeated had it not been for 10 penalties and a late interception last week at Clemson. They're 3 of 11 in 3rd downs didn't help matters either. But Syracuse remains hungry and should do well back home vs an Irish team that hasn't played that tough of a schedule, of course since September 3rd at Ohio State. Offensive production is mediocre for the Irish despite a respectable run game. QB Drew Pyne will not strike fear in Syracuse' Top 10 defense that allows 15.1 PPG. On the other hand, Syracuse should go a lot more often to their star running back - Sean Tucker this week; last week, he had just three carries and Babers admitted he needed to run him more. QB Shrader has been solid most of the season and he has a solid favorite target in Gadsden II. We'll look for the new and improved Orangemen to deliver over the upstart Irish today. |
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10-29-22 | Oklahoma v. Iowa State +1.5 | Top | 27-13 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
Oklahoma/Iowa State Noon: Both teams coming off bye weeks but Iowa State a bit healthier. Sooners S Bowman still on the mend. Iowa State has dropped four straight conference games yet competitive (by a combined 14 points). The Cyclones are looking to avenge last season's 28-21 loss at Norman. Cyclones' HC Matt Campbell has a deeply rooted staff including a terrific DC in Jon Heacock. Cyclones have a Top 10 defense in not only yards allowed but points allowed (15.1 PPG). They play the pass well and should be able to contain Sooners' QB Gabriel. On the other hand, Sooners' defense has been atrocious - allowing 31 PPG (103rd nationally) with a poor run stop unit allowing 207 YPG. Cyclones have good weapons offensively including NFL bound Xavier Hutchinson (758 yards). And QB Hunter Dekkers is gradually living up to his potential coming out of high school as one of the most prolific passers in Iowa HS football history. He'll have RB Brock to help alleviate some pressure. Matt Campbell a dangerous conference dog at 25-8 ATS including 17-3 ATS when opponent is coming off a win. Iowa State should deliver. |
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10-28-22 | East Carolina +3.5 v. BYU | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 19 h 24 m | Show | |
East Carolina/BYU 8:00: Two teams going in the opposite direction. BYU defense in a state of flux. After giving up tons of yardage, BYU HC Sitake was furious watching his now 106th ranked defense giving up excessive yards at Liberty last week; consequently, he took over the DC duties while demoting his DC Tuiaki to taking over the defensive line. Sitake will continue to call the defense this week and that spells trouble. East Carolina heated up with an OT win over Memphis and a very impressive win over UCF. QB Ahlers was an impressive 30 of 36 for 311 yards and a TD while RB Mitchell grinded out 100+ yards on the ground. And UCF sports a Top 20 defense! On the other hand, EC defense had trouble defending the pass up until facing UCF where they shut the high-powered Knights to 13 points. Pirates' HC Mike Houston doing a solid job as his men are consistently getting better as the season progresses. BYU not. We'll grab the points on the road with the Pirates. |
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10-22-22 | Texas v. Oklahoma State +6 | 34-41 | Win | 100 | 15 h 33 m | Show | |
Texas/Oklahoma State 3:30: Oklahoma State under Gundy stays in football games. They're a sweet 13-1 ATS as a dog of less than 12 points. Offensively, they can trade points with any team in the nation. And they probably will have to here. Cowboys' defense is not what it was when Jim Knowles (now at Ohio State) led them last year. Former Vandy HC Derek Mason not getting it done. Nevertheless, the Cowboys have the horses, can sack the QB (nearly 3 per game), and can create turnovers. Cowboys have won 3 of the last 4 in this series, including last year's 32-24 win in Texas. We're counting on Spencer Sanders (shoulder) to go. Again, we'll look for Okie State to stay in this one and cover. |
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10-22-22 | Purdue +2 v. Wisconsin | Top | 24-35 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
Purdue/Wisconsin 3:30: Wisconsin has amazingly gone 15-0 SU in this series. Purdue has competed well in Madison though at 3-0 ATS under Brohm. Today, the Boilermakers should notch their 5th straight win and defeat the Badgers to become bowl eligible. They're catching the Badgers off a double-OT defeat at Michigan State. They're 1-1 SU/ATS since DC Leonhard took over for fired Paul Chryst. Both teams are similar in defensive philosophy, highly opportunistic, and good run stoppers; however, where the Badgers lack is the passing game under Mertz. He's doing well, but run game isn't what it was in years past with RB Allen the leading rusher. As for Purdue, RB Mockobee emerged last week with a big game as another strong runner to give support to QB Aidan O'Connell - who's well-groomed under Brohm. Today, we'll look for the Boilermakers to finally break the losing streak vs Wisconsin. |
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10-22-22 | Eastern Michigan +2.5 v. Ball State | 20-16 | Win | 100 | 14 h 48 m | Show | |
Eastern Michigan/Ball State 2:00: One thing is consistent under Eagles' HC Creighton. He's dangerous on the road when coming off a loss as his 22-5-1 ATS ledger suggests in that role. And that includes the road upset at Arizona State on September 17th! The Eagles are also 4-0 ATS at Muncie, IN. Moreover, they're 6-0 ATS before playing Toledo. On the other hand, Ball State, under current coach Mike Neu, is a money burning 2-9 SU/1-10 ATS when coming off a win and facing a losing team. They managed to narrowly beat lightweight Connecticut at home as a 9.5-point favorite. Eastern Michigan is eyeing revenge from last year's beating, and we'll grab them here! |
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10-22-22 | Cincinnati -3 v. SMU | 29-27 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 14 m | Show | |
Cincinnati/SMU Noon: Bearcats crushed Sonny Dykes led SMU last season to the tune of 48-14 in Cincinnati. QB Mordecai was handcuffed throwing for a measly 66 yards. Today, despite losing some top secondary personnel to the NFL in the draft, the Bearcats bring another Top 20 defense to Dallas, Texas. And this year's bunch gets after the QB - averaging nearly 4 sacks per game. Sure, Mordecai is improved and playing well this year under first year HC Lashlee, but this is the best defense he has faced. On the other hand, Bearcats reloaded offensively with skill personnel including QB Ben Bryant who has gotten better as the season progressed. He has a solid run game to lean on with 500 yard rusher - McClelland getting the bulk of the carries; consequently, the Bearcats should pound the rock repeatedly against an SMU run-stop-unit that allows 212 YPG! Bearcats 4-1 ATS in this series and they're well rested coming off a bye. Cincinnati the call. |
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10-21-22 | UAB +2 v. Western Kentucky | 17-20 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 19 m | Show | |
UAB/Western Kentucky 8:00: Blazers have one of the most underrated coaches in NCAA Football in Bill Clark. He resurrected a football program that was shut down for two seasons in 2015-16 and took them bowling every year since 2017. Once again, the Clark leads another solid Blazers' team. And they're a sweet 10-2 ATS as a conference dog. They have a Top 20 defense that plays the pass well (15th nationally), and an offense that hitches the wagon onto RB DeWayne McBride, part of the 8th best run game in the nation. Western Kentucky no joke and QB Austin Reed, who transferred in from West Florida to take over for record setting Zappe, can sling it. But the Hilltoppers a bit too reliant on their pass game. We'll look for the more methodical Blazers to deliver on the road where they're 6-1 ATS vs teams with winning home records. UAB the call. |
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10-20-22 | Virginia v. Georgia Tech -3 | 16-9 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 47 m | Show | |
Virginia/Georgia Tech 7:30: Georgia Tech established winning momentum after the firing of Geoff Collins. Virgina struggling under first year HC Elliot. Brent Key took over October 1st and the Yellow Jackets rolled with wins over Pittsburgh and Duke. Their defense is creating turnovers, which bodes well for them against the turnover laden Cavaliers (8). And the Virginia offense can't get their run game going with an inexperienced offensive line this season, putting too much pressure on QB Armstrong. On the other hand, like GT versatile QB Sims who makes plays and has a pretty good surrounding cast that can run the football and hold on to the ball. Rambling Wreck a sweet 7-0 ATS off back-to-back wins, and they're feeling good coming out of their bye-week at home. Virginia, however, 0-3 ATS on the road and not feeling so good off bye-week as a traveler. Tech looking to avenge last year's 40-48 loss at Virginia. We'll lay a FG with them here. |
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10-19-22 | Georgia State v. Appalachian State -9.5 | 17-42 | Win | 100 | 19 h 53 m | Show | |
Georgia State/Appalachian State 7:30: Tale of two teams going in opposite directions. Georgia State coming off two impressive wins over Army and Georgia Southern. Appalachian State lost 2 of its last 3 including major upset loss to lightweight Texas State. But this is not a good matchup for the Panthers. They've lost 3 of the last 4 in this series, including 45-16 blowout loss last year at home. Mountaineers made the mistake of chucking the ball record times at Texas State. Tonight, they'll be able to establish a ground game vs a run stop unit allowing 180 YPG. If Mountaineers' leading rusher Cameron Peoples (illness) can't go, Mounties have a deep backfield with Harrington, Noel and Marshall. A successful run game should open up the pass game for accurate QB Chase Brice (18/3 TD/INT). On the other side of the ball, Appalachian State brings a solid unit to the field including a run stop unit that allows a measly 2.6 YPC vs Sun Belt teams. Georgia State's game is running the football, and Appalachian State is one of the best run stop units in the Sun Belt Conference. When the Panthers are forced to pass, they're not at their best. Appalachian State 6-1 ATS off a double-digit SU loss and 6-1 ATS with extended rest. Mountaineers get it back together tonight. |
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10-15-22 | Wisconsin -7 v. Michigan State | 28-34 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 6 m | Show | |
Wisconsin/Michigan State 4:00: We'll lay a TD with the much better Badgers football team. Despite the loss of HC Chryst last week, the Badgers blasted NW in in Evanston. QB Mertz came alive with a big game. He should be equally impressive here against a Michigan State secondary that gives up a generous 292 YPG (122nd nationally). And the Spartans have forced just 1 turnover all season. Wisconsin offense is productive and should roll. On the other hand, the tough Badgers' defense, which has forced 10 turnovers this season, should be able to stall out a Spartans' offense stuck in neutral. Without Walker III (Seahawks), the sputtering Spartans' run game produced just 107 YPG. Last time these teams met (2019), Badgers throttled the Spartans 38-0. That was under Dantonio. Tucker has taken the Spartans a few notches backwards this year. Wisconsin the call. |
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10-15-22 | NC State +3 v. Syracuse | 9-24 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 6 m | Show | |
NC State/Syracuse 3:30: NC State won this game handily last season 41-17. QB Leary torched the Syracuse defense for 303 yards and 2 TDs. Syracuse had success on the ground but QB Schrader couldn't get it going through the air going 8 out of 20 for just 63 yards, an INT and sacked 5X. NC State brings virtually the same defense back to the field. Offensively, Leary (shoulder) is questionable but backup Chambers, who showed his mettle last week in the comeback win vs Florida State, is definitely a viable option. OC Tim Beck has the offense running smooth. The jury is still out on Syracuse as a serious contender in the ACC. NC State the call. |
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10-15-22 | Kansas +9 v. Oklahoma | 42-52 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 4 m | Show | |
Kansas/Oklahoma Noon: Kansas gave Oklahoma a run for the money last season in a 35-23 loss but cover as a 38.5 point dog. Those heavy dog daze are over for Kansas under HC Leipold, who has turned the Jayhawks program around in a year and a half. I do plan on Sooners' QB Gabriel is good to go; at the same time, Kansas' QB Jalon Daniels (shoulder) is likely out but his backup Jason Bean did a great job coming in last week to keep it competitive. Oklahoma 114th ranked defense getting gashed on the ground to the tune of 214.5 YPG. Kansas' run game produces 214 YPG. With a respectable defense, a newfound confidence, we'll look for the vengeful Jayhawks to cover again. |
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10-15-22 | Iowa State +15.5 v. Texas | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 13 h 47 m | Show | |
Iowa State/Texas Noon: Texas looking like world beaters after blasting Oklahoma last week. But the Longhorns are a money burning 2-12 ATS as a favorite of less than 27 points off a double-digit ATS win vs .500 or less opponent. Meanwhile, Iowa State lost another close one last week as Kansas State won 10-9. It was the Cyclones third straight loss - all by a combined 11 points. Iowa State offense nothing like it was last year when the Cyclones blasted Texas 30-7. Now the Cyclones rely on their Top 10 defense to keep them in games. Iowa State does have a solid future QB in Dekkers and he has a few weapons to go to in Hutchinson and RB Brock. Iowa State a sweet 24-8 ATS as a conference dog including 16-3 ATS vs foes off a win. We'll take the points. |
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10-14-22 | Navy +12.5 v. SMU | 34-40 | Win | 100 | 20 h 31 m | Show | |
Navy/SMU 7:30: Navy is starting to get it rolling on a 2-1 SU/3-0 ATS run. Interior offensive line is opening holes for FB Fofana; consequently, the Midshipmen vaulted to 12th in the nation running the football to the tune of 232 YPG. SMU' defense had less than a week to prep for the difficult triple option attack. The Mustangs' defense already allow a generous 180 YPG (106th nationally). SMU maintained its pass-oriented offense under new head coach Lashlee. They may go to the freshman Stone who gave them a spark last week replacing veteran Mordecai; however, Mustangs sport a 2-3 SU record at this point and struggling. Navy defense good run stoppers but vulnerable against the pass so we know where SMU will attack them. Look for Navy to do what they do best - run the rock and eat clock. The Midshipmen look to avenge last year's 31-24 loss but cover (+13'). Navy is better this year and SMU down a notch. SMU a money burning 0-7 ATS as a conference home favorite off back-to-back SU losses vs an opponent with revenge. Navy, however, is 16-0 ATS as a dog off a SU win vs a less than .500 opponent. Grab the points with Navy who are 7-2 ATS in this series. |
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10-13-22 | Temple v. Central Florida -23 | 13-70 | Win | 100 | 6 h 22 m | Show | |
Temple/Central Florida 7:00: Both teams are defensively sound, but the contrasting offensive production should be difference maker here. Temple's defense keeps them in games but their horrific offensive production (bottom tier of NCAA in points scored, total yards, 3rd down conversions) handcuffs them. UCF sports a solid defense and is the #1 defense in the red zone. On the flip end, Malzahn's offense produces a healthy 35.6 PPG. UCF thrashed Temple 49-7 in Philadelphia last year. Hard to stake a case for revenge when the Owls haven't won or covered a road game in their last 6 attempts. Knights the call. |
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10-08-22 | Wyoming -3 v. New Mexico | 27-14 | Win | 100 | 17 h 33 m | Show | |
10-08-22 | Duke -3.5 v. Georgia Tech | 20-23 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 38 m | Show | |
Georgia Tech/Duke 4:00: Georgia Tech coming off an emotional win over then #25 ranked Pittsburgh. Last week, Geoff Collins was let go and interim coach Brent Key took over to guide the Yellow Jackets to victory. The Panthers were run roughshod on by the Engineers to the tune of 232 yards on 44 attempts. Pittsburgh's Narduzzi has been known to play down to opponents and his boys did. Panthers had 12 penalties for 75 yards. Today, look for a well-disciplined Duke team to be a different story. They're +9 on the season in turnover margin, play solid run defense and can run the ball offensively. QB Riley Leonard manages the game well (7 TD/2 INT). And Duke is stingy allowing points: 19 PPG (28th nationally). Defensive minded Duke HC Elko should orchestrate an effective game plan. Blue Devils are looking to avenge last year's close defeat. Duke is 6-1 ATS in this series and 3-1 ATS at Atlanta. Duke the call. |
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10-08-22 | Wisconsin v. Northwestern +10.5 | Top | 42-7 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 49 m | Show |
Wisconsin/Northwestern 3:30: Two struggling Big Ten programs. Wisconsin, off their latest loss to Illinois last week to fall to 2-3 on the season, fired HC Paul Chryst. DC Leonhard takes over HC duties. Meanwhile, Northwestern fell to Penn State in a rain-soaked mess at Happy Valley. The Wildcats dropped to 1-4 with only win coming vs Nebraska in Week O in Dublin, Ireland. That was a Top Play then, and I'm back on Fitgerald as a Top Play here. Wildcats looking to avenge last year's 35-7 whitewashing in Wisconsin. Wisconsin doesn't have the run game this year that they've had in recent years. Last week, Illinois held them to 2 rush yards on 24 carries! And defensively, have slid this year as well (50th in scoring defense). Northwestern has been marred by turnovers (9) and need to clean it up quick. Weather calls for sunshine in Evanston with a bit of wind. We'll look for QB Hilinski to get it together this week. Northwestern has covered 9 of the last 10 at home vs Wisconsin; moreover, Fitzgerald is an amazing 10-1 ATS as a dog with revenge vs .500 or fewer opponent. Northwestern the call. |
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10-08-22 | Georgia Southern +2.5 v. Georgia State | 33-41 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 51 m | Show | |
Georgia Southern/Georgia State 2:00: The Eagles are Clay Helton's team now and he's turning them into a replica of his old USC teams; after all, their offense is cooking (500 yards per game) but their ability to stop the run defensively leaves much to be desired - 205 YPG allowed. Today, they battle run oriented Georgia State which is coming off a huge win at Army. The good news for Georgia Southern is that the Panthers allow nearly 34 PPG. Some of these numbers are skewed for these Sun Belt teams have taken on some solid competition - especially the Panthers. But I like the Eagles offensive line that leads the nation in allowing the fewest tackles for loss and second in the nation in sacks allowed. Give QB Van Trease (1574 pass yards) time and he'll burn a secondary. Throw in the run game of Jalen White (450 yards rush) and I believe the Eagles have more firepower to outlast the Panthers late. Georgia Southern the call. |
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10-08-22 | TCU v. Kansas +7 | 38-31 | Push | 0 | 11 h 16 m | Show | |
TCU/Kansas Noon: Kansas HC Leipold turned Buffalo into a big winner in the MAC and he's turning around a moribund Kansas program, which hasn't had a winning season since 2009, in just two years. The undefeated Jayhawks at 5-0 haven't fought lightweights either. They've beaten West Virginia at Morgantown, Houston at Houston, and took care of Duke and Iowa State. They almost upset TCU last year as a 21-point dog at Fort Worth. Today, like their chances for revenge at home. Jayhawks' QB Daniels doing a solid job of managing the offense. He struggled last week but fortunately the Jayhawks' run game with Devin Neal was able to gain some ground. And although Kansas got out-statted by Iowa State, they found a way to win by taking away the Cyclones ground game (30 carries for 26 yards). TCU will be a tough challenge, but we'll take the points. TCU just 1-15 ATS as a favorite of more than 3 points when coming off a SU underdog win. Jayhawks the call. |
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10-07-22 | Nebraska v. Rutgers +3 | 14-13 | Win | 100 | 27 h 54 m | Show | |
Nebraska/Rutgers 7:00: Nebraska coming off win at home vs Indiana; however, can't trust them on the road as a favorite with interim coach. Schiano had a few years to build back Rutgers to where it was in his first term. He's done a pretty good job, establishing a solid defense (18th total yards). Offensively, Scarlet Knights are struggling (105th). However, their run game is solid and they don't turn the ball over much (2). QB Evan Simon isn't going to light up the scoreboard but I believe the Knights can win the field position battle against a Nebraska defense that allows 469 YPG, and ranked 119th vs the run. Knights are 7-2 ATS after accumulating 275 yards or less. Nebraska 2-8 ATS in October, 3-8 ATS off SU win. In 2020, Rutgers hung around with the Cornhuskers before losing by a TD. We'll look for them to deliver tonight. |
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10-01-22 | West Virginia +9.5 v. Texas | Top | 20-38 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 38 m | Show |
West Virginia/Texas 7:30: I'm surprised the Mounties are getting these many points. In recent years, this series has been relatively close, and WV actually is 3-0 ATS in Austin. The Mounties played well on the road this season almost knocking off Pittsburg, destroyed Virginia Tech in Blacksburg. JT Daniels is poised in the pocket and has a serious run game (217.5 YPG) to lean on. Texas defense, however, having trouble stopping both the run and pass; consequently, that doesn't bode well laying 9' points! Texas got whipped 23-31 last year at West Virginia; however, they're a poor 1-6 ATS at home after allowing 35+ points vs an above .500 team. West Virginia the call. |
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10-01-22 | Michigan State v. Maryland -7.5 | 13-27 | Win | 100 | 14 h 3 m | Show | |
Michigan State/Maryland 3:30: Maryland has lots of talented receivers and QB Tagoviola is as good as advertised. His backup (Edwards) is solid too. Last week, Maryland gave Michigan a run for the money at Ann Arbor - a tough task for any team. Meanwhile, Michigan State was blasted on their home field by Minnesota (my top play). Maryland looking to avenge last year's 21-40 beatdown at East Lansing. Spartans no longer have Kenneth Walker III running roughshod over defenders. Their run game is a dismal 95th in the nation. On the other hand, the Michigan State secondary remains in tatters and that's bad news against the explosive MD offense that passes for 301 YPG. Maryland 7-0 ATS w/ revenge after allowing 30+ points vs an opponent off SU loss. MD the call. |
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10-01-22 | Oklahoma -5 v. TCU | 24-55 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 40 m | Show | |
Oklahoma/TCU Noon: Oklahoma stewing after dropping a 41-34 decision to K State. In that game, former Nebraska QB Martinez rushed for 148 yards on them. Defensive minded Sooners' HC Venables not happy and should make proper adjustments vs veteran TCU QB Max Duggan. He was sacked 5X last week vs SMU. TCU managed to sneak by 42-34. TCU padded their earlier season wins with lightweights Colorado and Tarleton State. Sooners, which sport the #7 offense in nation, should be able to roll through the suspect TCU defense. Horned Frogs secondary ranked 107th in nation and vulnerable to accurate QB Dillon Gabriel. Sooners 6-1 ATS in this series and 4-1 ATS at Fort Worth. Oklahoma the call. |
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10-01-22 | Kentucky +7 v. Ole Miss | 19-22 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show | |
Kentucky/Ole Miss Noon: The last two games in this series were decided by 3 points or less. Ole Miss' secondary torched last week by backup quarterback. Rebels are 98th vs the pass allowing 207 YPG. This is the first year in, perhaps, the Stoops era, that Kentucky actually has a formidable pass game. Will Levis does a nice job running the offense passing for nearly 300 YPG. The run game, which is usually a staple of Stoops' offense gets a boost as Rodriguez Jr. (off suspension) is back! He led the team in rushing with 1379 yards last year. KY 4-0-1 ATS vs teams with a winning home record. Stoops 17-9-1 ATS coming off back-to-back wins. Kentucky the call. |
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09-30-22 | Washington -2.5 v. UCLA | 32-40 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 43 m | Show | |
Washington/UCLA 10:30: Both teams come in to this one undefeated; however, Washington appears to be the more complete team. They have more experience on both sides of the ball and more returning player experience from a year ago. They're also looking to avenge last year's 24-17 loss at home - that one under former Huskies' coach Jimmy Lake who underachieved mightily. In came Kalen Deboer and brought in QB Michael Penix Jr. (former Hoosier) making him the nation's top passer (347 YPG). UCLA is potent too with 5th year man Dorian Thompson-Robinson who sports a 74.8% completion with 8 TD/1 INT. But don't discount the Washington defense. Washington has won the stats in each of its games by a wide margin, including Michigan State and Stanford. UCLA has the jury still out after whipping four lightweights. Bruins just 5-15-2 ATS vs a winning team, 7-16-1 ATS in September, and 0-4 ATS on Friday. We'll lay a few points with the Huskies. |
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09-30-22 | Tulane +2.5 v. Houston | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 42 h 5 m | Show | |
Tulane/Houston 7:00: Houston cannot be trusted. Now 1-3 ATS and barely survived a win over lightweight Rice. Tulane no joke. Fritz has a veteran team with lots of returning starters. They knocked off Big 12 contender Kansas State on the 17th before falling to a fired up and underrated Southern Miss team. Houston will not have their impact DE Derek Parish (Biceps) and that's a big loss. He has 5 sacks on the year and a menace disrupter in the backfield. Tulane has a solid run game, a respectable versatile QB Pratt (7 TD passes/197 yards rushing) and sound defensively: 4th in total yards allowed/8th in total points allowed. Houston has been victim to penalties and mistakes. Holgorsen yells until he's blue in the face but to no avail. Take Tulane. |
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09-24-22 | Wisconsin v. Ohio State -19 | 21-52 | Win | 100 | 20 h 45 m | Show | |
Wisconsin/Ohio State 7:30: OSU warmed up their offense and scored TDs on 7 consecutive possessions last week vs Toledo. Wisconsin has a much better defense but still not a match for the offensive machine of the Buckeyes. CJ Stroud and company (#1 offense in nation) should get it rolling in Columbus. Wisconsin is coming off a blowout win over New Mexico State but should find points to be at a premium vs the Buckeyes. Ryan Day brought in Jim Knowles from Oklahoma State, where he did wonders for the Cowboys. Knowles is now shaping the Buckeyes' veteran defensive unit into a top-notch unit. OSU 4-0 ATS at home vs Wisconsin and we'll lay the wood. |
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09-24-22 | Tulsa v. Ole Miss -21 | 27-35 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 36 m | Show | |
Tulsa/Ole Miss 4:00: On the surface, looks like a good play on Tulsa; after all, they have the #1 pass game in the nation and have been a covering machine for HC Montgomery over the last few seasons. A closer look, however, reveals fundamental flaws to their game that will be exploited by Lane Kiffin. The Golden Hurricane doesn't have a run game to protect QB Brin. They're 114th in the nation running the football. Ole Miss is winning games on defense - allowing a combined 13 points. And the Rebels can bring the pressure averaging 4.3 sacks per game. Moreover, Kiffin struck gold in the off-season in the transfer portal with QB Jaxson Dart (USC), RBs Zach Evans (TCU) and Ulysses Bentley IV (SMU) along with a crapload of talented receivers. The Rebels are grinding out a ridiculous 272 YPG on the ground. Tulsa defense doesn't have the depth to sustain or contain that ground game for 4 quarters. Ole Miss rolls. |
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09-24-22 | Oregon v. Washington State +6.5 | 44-41 | Win | 100 | 1 h 20 m | Show | |
09-24-22 | Minnesota -3 v. Michigan State | Top | 34-7 | Win | 100 | 22 h 33 m | Show |
Minnesota/Michigan State 3:30: Gradual erosion taking place at Michigan State. Last season, defensively they yielded 46 YPG more than in 2020. And their secondary ranked 85th but managed an 11-win season and bowl win. They did make big plays, but the wagon is no longer hitched to Heisman finalist Kenneth Walker III. Last week, Washington exploited the Spartans' weaknesses as QB Penix lit up the secondary for 397 yards and 4 TDs. On the offensive side, the Spartans' offensive line couldn't get their top running back going (27 yards on 13 carries). QB Payton Thorne isn't a guy that can carry the team without a strong run game. Minnesota comes in to East Lansing off 3 blowout wins and hungry. Their offense is equipped with a mammoth front line that's opening truck sized holes for their horse Mohamed Ibrahim (464 yards rushing). And veteran signal caller Tanner Morgan is helped with the return of OC Ciarocca this season. Gophers lighting up the scoreboard (47.2 PPG). Minnesota has had success at East Lansing (4-0 ATS). With the road team in this series at 4-1 ATS, we'll roll with the Gophers. |
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09-24-22 | Maryland v. Michigan -17 | 27-34 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 9 m | Show | |
Maryland/Michigan Noon: Michigan's first challenge after thrashing three consecutive lightweights. Wolves should be up to the challenge. They're 5-0 ATS as conference favorites off non-conference game. Maryland surely has the athletes under Locksley but can't create a consistent winner. And they usually crap the bed when stepping up in competition. Terps are a money burning 2-15 ATS vs greater than .500 conference opponent the last four years. Michigan is 6-0 ATS in this series including the 59-18 whitewashing last November. Sure, Tagoviola has a hot hand and lots of skill talent to go to, but Michigan's defense has been overwhelmingly strong this season. And defensively, Terps have secondary issues which will be a problem as Michigan getting the pass game going with McCarthy and McNamara. Michigan the call. |
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09-23-22 | Nevada v. Air Force -24 | 20-48 | Win | 100 | 20 h 0 m | Show | |
09-17-22 | Colorado State v. Washington State -16.5 | Top | 7-38 | Win | 100 | 15 h 47 m | Show |
Colorado State/Washington State 5:00: Washington State coming off one of the most impressive non-conference victories in school history. They went into Madison, Wisconsin and knocked off the Badgers as a 17.5 point dog. The Cougars' defense held the vaunted Wisconsin run game to less than 4 YPC. Now, the Cougars will take on a Rams' unit that is 130th out 131 teams running the football with a paltry 36 rush YPG. And their QB Millen has been sacked 16 times! It's not that their skill personnel is bad, it's an offensive line that can't block anyone. Jay Norvell won't figure it out just yet. i don't believe Washington State will suffer a letdown here. Cougars covered 4 of last 5 at home and are 15-6 ATS at home vs a team with a losing road record. |
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09-17-22 | Kansas +9 v. Houston | 48-30 | Win | 100 | 13 h 52 m | Show | |
Kansas/Houston 4:00: Lance Leipold gradually turning the moribund Kansas Jayhawks around. Since last season, they've now covered 5 straight games and, with a win here, could be the first Kansas team to be 3-0 SU since the 2009 team under Mark Mangino. The Jayhawks offense is cooking with QB Jalon Daniels. Kansas won a barnburner at West Virginia in OT last week. Houston's defense is nothing to rave about - allowing 455.5 YPG (116th). Jayhawks surely capable of trading points. We'll grab the points. |
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09-17-22 | BYU +3.5 v. Oregon | 20-41 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 11 m | Show | |
BYU/Oregon 3:30: BYU plays a tough physical brand of football. They went into a slugfest with a tough Baylor team last week and came out victorious. I expect a similar result here. Oregon QB Bo Nix can light up the scoreboard vs lightweights but he's in for another heavyweight battle here. The first one didn't fare well vs Georgia and it won't go well tonight. Sitake has lots of returning starters on a deep defensive unit, a good QB Hall and quality special teams. BYU 10-0 ATS as a dog of less than 6 points off a SU win. BYU the call. |
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09-17-22 | Oklahoma -11 v. Nebraska | 49-14 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show | |
Oklahoma/Nebraska Noon: Scott Frost era officially over and the transition to a new coaching staff comes at an inopportune time. Oklahoma so far has been near flawless in their execution with QB Dillon Gabriel playing well: 70% completions, 5 TDs, 0 INTs. Defensively, Sooners allowed just 16 points. Mickey Joseph, the interim HC for Nebraska will attempt to get Casey Thompson and company rolling here; however, the focus is questionable at best here. We'll look for the Sooners to deliver. |
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09-17-22 | Purdue +1.5 v. Syracuse | 29-32 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 10 m | Show | |
Purdue/Syracuse Noon: Syracuse screened the crap out of L'ville in Game 1 and followed up with a blowout of Jim Mora Jr.'s rebuilding project at Connecticut. Today, Babers gets his toughest test yet. Purdue was a minute away from pulling the upset against Penn State in Game 1. Brohm's boys bounced back with a blowout win over Indiana State. We'll look for the Boilermakers to follow up with a win here. Purdue more than capable of trading points with Syracuse whose offense is fueled behind QB Shrader and RB Sean Tucker. Purdue is equipped with accurate QB Aidan O'Connell and his top WR Charlie Jones who already has 21 catches for 286 yards and 4 TDs. Expect Syracuse to bracket or double him. Look for TE Durham to step up his game today. Defensively, Purdue without their star Jalen Graham. Boilermakers do have some defensive depth to handle the massive line of Syracuse and good leadership from Chris Jefferson (72 yard TD return in 4th quarter vs Penn State). Purdue sports a 16-6-2 ATS mark on the road vs teams with a winning home record. Syracuse sports a money burning 1-4 ATS mark vs Big 10. Purdue the call. |