*3 Star Play Under* The New York Knicks were embarrassed with their defensive performance in Game 5. Tom Thibodeau is a defensive minded coach, and he talked a lot about their poor closeouts and poor transition defense last game. 

Boston put up a ridiculous 1.396 points per possession on offense last game. The Celtics aren't likely to shoot the ball as well here, and the Knicks are almost surely going to contest those jumpers much better than they did last game.

The pace in Game 5 was slower than the series average at just 91 possessions. As the games get bigger the pace usually slows down. If we assume a pace of 91 possessions again, it would take both teams averaging about 1.16 points per possession (very high for playoff basketball) for this to get to the total.

Betting on game 6 and game 7 unders in the NBA playoffs has been a big winning proposition in the long term. Blindly betting on these in the past 16 years has given under bettors an ROI of 11.2%.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Denver Nuggets go back home down 3-2 and facing elimination if they lose this game. Oklahoma City fought very hard and dominated Denver in the 4th quarter in Game 5 to get a 3-2 series lead. 

The last three games have seen the final totals finish at 217 (in overtime), 179, and 217 total points. The pace has slowed down some and the defenses have been forcing quite a few turnovers.

In the NBA playoffs, Game 6 and Game 7 unders have done well, and when it is the team oddsmakers rate higher on the road that has been especially true. For example, when home teams in game 6 or 7 who are priced at -2.5 to +10.5 on the spread, the under is a whopping 65-31 to the under. The average margin is more than 5.5 points to the under.

Denver isn't likely to give up easily and I like this one to be a defensive battle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Boston* The New York Knicks are up 3-1 after winning three games where the Celtics led by large margins. Boston has been in control much of this series, but the Celtics have fallen apart in the closing minutes three times in this series.

Jayson Tatum is out here and that clearly hurts the Celtics, but I think some are discounting how good of a team Boston can still be without Tatum. Boston went 8-2 in the regular season without Tatum. Brown should step up and be a leader here. White should shoot the ball better. Pritchard is capable of big things. The Celtics have very good shooters, and they have underachieved on the whole in this series. 

The Celtic Pride is likely to be strong here. Boston is a very proud franchise, and I don't expect them to just roll over.

The public is all over the Knicks here. Backing a home favorite of 4 points or more that is receiving 40% or less of the spread bets is 84-51 ATS dating back to 2005. 

Take Boston. 

*3 Star Play on Oklahoma City* The Oklahoma City Thunder are the better team in this series. They have led more than 80% of the minutes in this series. Oklahoma City has let some late leads slip away and has blown two games. The other game was a complete blowout win for the Thunder. 

If the Thunder lose this game and go down 3-1 they will really be up against it. This is a massive game for the Thunder, who were easily the most dominant team in the NBA in the regular season. I think SGA and the entire team will raise their level here. Chet Holmgren should play better, and some of the Thunder role players will shoot the ball better. Oklahoma City is the much better defense, and their pressure defense has caused Nikola Jokic to turn the ball over a lot in this series.

While Oklahoma City lost 113-104 in overtime last game, Shot Quality's expected score was 128-110 with the Thunder winning based on the quality of shots taken.

I'll side with the zig zag theory here and back the better team laying the points on the road. 

Take Oklahoma City. 

*3 Star Play on Minnesota* The Golden State Warriors aren't likely to get a hero performance out of Buddy Hield on a consistent basis. Golden State was sent to 7 games against Houston, and they put everything they had into that series. Less than 48 hours after that series ends, they are headed all the way up to Minnesota to take on the very well rested Minnesota Timberwolves.

Home teams with 4 days or more of rest are 145-91 ATS (61.4% ATS) dating back to 2005 in the NBA playoffs. It's a 19.7% ROI on this specific rested home team system. 

I know the Lakers do have their shortcomings, but I was ultra impressed by the play of the Minnesota Timberwolves in round one. Anthony Edwards is a superstar, and the Wolves have plenty of talent around him to make life very tough on anyone. 

Minnesota has the better big men in this series, and they have solid perimeter defenders. 

Golden State is one of the older teams in the league now, and this quick turnaround against a well rested home team should be tough for them.

Take Minnesota. 

*3 Star Play on Oklahoma City* The Oklahoma City Thunder were the best team in the NBA in the regular season, and it wasn't very close. They were covering on a consistent basis, even when they were laying big numbers. Now, the Thunder are in a great situational spot.

The Denver Nuggets just put everything they had into a long seven game series against the LA Clippers. Game Seven in that series ended late Saturday night. Less than 48 hours after that game ended, they will tip off in Oklahoma City. 

The Thunder have been off since April 26th after sweeping the Memphis Grizzlies. They have a huge rest advantage, and the Thunder have the deeper team too.

Home teams with 4 days or more of rest are 145-90 ATS (61.7% ATS) dating back to 2005 in the NBA playoffs. It's a 19.7% ROI on this specific rested home team system. 

Teams coming off a game seven win have struggled badly ATS in game one of their next NBA playoff series too. 

I'll lay the points.

Take Oklahoma City. 

*3 Star Play on Cavs* The Cleveland Cavs swept the Miami Heat and got a lot of rest before this series. Cleveland absolutely coasted in the last two games of the series as well, which meant their starters played far less minutes than normal in both game 3 and game 4. 

The Indiana Pacers have been off since Tuesday night too, but they had some hard fought games including a fortunate overtime win over the Bucks in their series clinching win. 

Home teams with 4 days or more of rest are 145-90 ATS (61.7% ATS) dating back to 2005 in the NBA playoffs. It's a 19.7% ROI on this specific rested home team system. 

The Cavs were dominant for much of the regular season. The Pacers were only mediocre on the road. I think Cleveland comes out ready to go in game one here.

Take Cleveland. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Denver Nuggets shot lights out in their 131-115 win over the Clippers in Denver on Tuesday night. The Clippers shot it really well too. Denver shot 56% from the floor and the Clippers shot 52.4% from the floor. The Nuggets put up a ridiculous 1.394 points per possession in that one. The Clippers had 1.211 points per possession. 

For the series as a whole, four of the five games have been at 207 points or fewer at the end of regulation. Three of the five games have been at 200 points or lower at the end of regulation. 

Potential elimination games in the NBA playoffs have been good to the under in the long run. That is especially the case when we get to game six and game seven. The tendency is for the game to slow down and the defenses to be at their best. The under in game 6 and game 7 in the first round is 60-40 in the last 100 games.

The Clippers are a good defensive team, and I think they will be embarrassed by their poor defensive effort on Tuesday night. 

The average pace in this series is just 91 possessions. That requires an average of both teams averaging 1.17 points per possession or so to get to this total. The pace might be a bit slower here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Detroit Pistons and New York Knicks meet in Detroit in Game 6 of what has been a really competitive series. The young Pistons have been playing some great basketball down the stretch in the regular season, and this has been a very evenly played series. 

New York was one of the slower paced teams in the league this year. The Knicks should lean on their defense and slow this game down. 

Detroit has been physical down low and that has thrown off the Knicks quite a bit in this series. The Pistons sometimes don't have enough scoring options in the key moments. 

The under is 130-81 in the last 211 in Game 6 or Game 7 of the NBA playoffs. The pace has slowed a bit in the last two games between these two teams. 

A lot on the line in this one. I'll take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The LA Clippers were third in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the last 15 games of the regular season. The Clippers when healthy have been excellent on defense. The Nuggets have an extremely high 16.5% turnover rate in the series. 

Michael Porter Jr. is trying to play through an injury. Jamal Murray isn't completely healthy. Russell Westbrook is injured now too. There is so much pressure on Jokic to dominate all the time now. The Nuggets other options just aren't reliable. 

The pace in this series has averaged about 91 possessions. That requires about 1.17 points per possession to get to this total. With turnovers and inefficient shooting that is hard to get to without a major foul fest.

James Harden is inconsistent offensively in the playoffs. The Nuggets defense should be a bit better in this game.

The Clippers defense is the best unit on the floor in this series. I like the value to the under again.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The LA Clippers go home to host the Denver Nuggets in Game 3. This series couldn't have been closer in the first two games in Denver. I think this series will be extremely tight the whole way.

The first two games in this series were low scoring. Game one was 98-98 before overtime. Game two was 105-102. It hasn't been poor shooting numbers either. The pace numbers have slowed down a lot from the regular season meetings. The games weren't artificially low. The totals were just set too high. Both of these teams have some defensive stoppers, and open looks have been difficult to find thus far. 

Kawhi Leonard has picked up his level a lot in the postseason. The Nuggets aren't as efficient on offense with Westbrook taking questionable shots too often. On the other side, the Clippers are capable of being great on offense, but they are inconsistent and go through scoring droughts.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Rockets and Warriors met five times this year. Four of the five games finished well below this total. In fact, four of the five games were 203 total points or lower. 

The Rockets and Warriors both finished top seven in the NBA in defensive efficiency. Both of these teams finished with an average tempo that was slightly slower than the average tempo in the NBA overall. The Warriors played a bit slower in their games with Jimmy Butler in the lineup. 

The Rockets are a good team, but they lack that elite scorer to take over a game. Houston does play tremendous team defense though. They will make Golden State work very hard to get open looks.

The game changes quite a bit in the playoffs, and I think the pace here will be even slower than their regular season meetings. The shooting numbers might be a bit higher, but I think it will take some abnormally hot shooting to get past this total.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Golden State Warriors and LA Clippers have a bunch on the line on Saturday afternoon in the Bay Area.  Both teams are fighting to stay out of the play in tournament.  Both teams could finish seventh with a loss here. 

Steph Curry is listed as questionable with a hand injury. I am going to assume Curry will play here. Curry may be a bit hampered, but I'm not betting the under based on this injury. 

Golden State is third in the NBA in defensive efficiency in their last eight games. Golden State has really made a run largely because of some much improved defense in recent months. They have been playing at an average or slightly below average pace on offense too. 

The LA Clippers are second in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the last eight games. The Clippers are bottom 8 in the NBA in tempo during that time as well. 

Steph Curry was quoted as saying this game would have a Game 7 feeling because of what is on the line. I think the pace slows a bit and the defenses have the upper hand.

All three meetings between these two teams this year have stayed under this number.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* This is a big game for both teams. There is a major battle going on for the 4th-8th spots in the NBA Western Conference. Everyone wants to get in the top six to avoid the play in. Right now, Memphis is 7th in the standings and Minnesota is 8th. One game separates 4th from 8th though, so there is plenty of room for movement in the final days.

Memphis has a new coach and they have slowed their pace down slightly. Minnesota is a top ten defense in the NBA lately. The Timberwolves have been going through scoring droughts though with many of the secondary scoring options struggling in recent contests.

The importance of this game is likely to slow things down a bit. The posted total is so high that I have to side with the under with 58 points per quarter still leading to an under.

I expect a little tighter defense than usual in this Western Conference battle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Toronto Raptors are fifth in the NBA in defensive efficiency in their last ten games. Toronto is also second to last in offensive efficiency during that time. They have scored 108 points or fewer in five of their last ten games. They will be without R.J. Barrett today, and he is averaging 22 points per game this season. Scottie Barnes is their leader and he is questionable at best also.

Detroit will be without Tobias Harris which is a pretty big loss, and Cade Cunningham is questionable here as well. If Cunningham plays he isn't likely to be 100 percent. 

Detroit is 9th best in the NBA in defensive efficiency this season. I like their chances to slow down this shorthanded Toronto Raptors offense. The Pistons won't have some of their go to guys on offense though. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Philadelphia 76ers have played in five straight games that have finished with 233 total points or more. Philadelphia has allowed 122 points or more in 7 of their last 9 contests. The 76ers defense ranks third worst in defensive efficiency in the NBA in the last 10 games. The New Orleans Pelicans rank dead last in defensive efficiency during that time period. 

New Orleans has seen 234 points or more scored in 5 of their last 9. They have allowed 134 and 136 points in their last two games. 

These are two teams who have nothing to play for and that has lead to some wild high scoring games of late. The 76ers are 7th in the NBA in tempo in the last ten games, and the Pelicans are 17th. There should be a relatively quick pace here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Raptors* The Phoenix Suns are 11-20 ATS at home this season. They are 7-15 ATS as a home favorite. Toronto is 19-13 ATS on the road this season.

Phoenix is 24th in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the last six games. The Suns don't look like a motivated team of late. Toronto is 3rd in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the last six games. Toronto has multiple road wins in Orlando in the last ten games as well as a road win at Utah. 

Toronto isn't a good team, but they are playing hard to the end. Phoenix isn't worthy of such a large favorite role. 

Brent Barnaky is one of the referees for this game. Road teams are 462-395 ATS in his games. 

I'll take the points here. Take Toronto. 

*3 Star Play Under* This is an early start in Dallas. It is a noon local start in Dallas. 

The Mavericks have been much better on defense at home this year than on the road. Dallas is 26th in the NBA in offensive efficiency in their last eight games. They are struggling to score in the halfcourt. 

Philadelphia is one of the most banged up teams in the NBA. The 76ers lack elite scoring options now. Philadelphia is 25th in the NBA in offensive efficiency in their last eight games, so they too are struggling quite a bit on offense.

The early Sunday unders have been good in the last 15 years, and they have been even better in the Western Conference.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Denver Nuggets go to Oklahoma City for a big game against the Thunder on Sunday. This is a very early start time in Oklahoma City. It gets underway at noon local time. This is also after clocks moved forward in the night so there was one less hour to sleep and the body clock could be off a bit here.

These early Western Conference unders have been excellent long term. 

Admittedly, this isn't a game I really wanted to bet the under with these two offenses being in top form of late, but the situation and the price makes me feel like there is value here.

Oklahoma is a top two or three defense in the league. Denver is a top ten defense in the league. A total set this high is quite extreme. 

Oklahoma City got up defensively for a showdown with Boston on a Sunday afternoon in January. That game finished 105-92.  I think the Thunder get fired up defensively here too. This game won't be as low scoring, but this total requires more than 60 points per quarter.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Houston Rockets aren't very good on offense. Houston is in 25th in the NBA in offensive efficiency in the last ten games. Houston has scored 105 points or fewer in 5 of their last 9 contests.

Oklahoma City has had some very high scoring games of late, but the Thunder are still first in the NBA in defensive efficiency for the season overall. Houston is 4th in the NBA in defensive efficiency.

The first two times these teams met this year the totals were 220 and 214 points. This is a large adjustment and it is based on OKC's recent high scoring games. I think this is too large of an adjustment.

Justin Van Dyne is one of the refs in this one and in his career his games have gone under at a 55.5% clip.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Brooklyn Nets have had the best defense in the NBA in the last ten games. The Nets also play at the slowest pace of any team in the NBA. Brooklyn has seen 11 of their last 13 games stay under this total. 

The Washington Wizards are 24th in offensive efficiency in the NBA in the last 10 games. They are second to last in the last three games. 

The Nets are second to last in the NBA in offensive efficiency in the last ten games. 

The last meeting between these two was 221 points, but Shot Quality's advanced data suggests the final total should have been 198 based on the quality of shots taken.

All three refs in these game have edged toward the under in their careers.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Memphis* The Memphis Grizzlies have lost two straight games. The Grizzlies haven't lost three games in a row all season, and I don't think they'll do it here either. 

The Orlando Magic don't have the same upside without Jalen Suggs. Orlando doesn't have the offensive firepower to trade scores with the Grizzlies. Though Memphis plays at a very fast pace, the Grizzlies are top five or six in most advanced defensive statistics. They do make it difficult on the opposition.

Orlando comes into this one riding high, and Memphis is in a back against the wall type spot. I'll buy low on the Grizzlies.

Take Memphis. 

*3 Star Play on Kings* The Dallas Mavericks came off 5 game road trip and beat Houston in their last game. Anthony Davis starred in that game before getting injured. Davis is out here, and this being their second game back home after a load road trip is a difficult scheduling spot for the Mavericks.

Dallas has all kinds of drama right now with the upset fans and AD getting injured right away. The Mavericks aren't a bad team, but in this spot I don't trust them.

Sacramento has less pressure on them. The Kings went to Minnesota and won a few days ago. I think they can do the same again here. 

I'll fade Dallas in this situation.

Take Sacramento. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Brooklyn Nets are playing far slower than any other team in the NBA. Brooklyn's average pace of 93.5 possessions per game in their last eight games is nearly 3 full possessions slower than the second slowest paced NBA team during that span. In that time, seven of the Nets eight games have stayed under this total.

The Miami Heat are 25th out of 30 teams in the NBA in tempo. Miami is also only 25th in the NBA in offensive efficiency in the last eight games. Brooklyn is 28th in the NBA in offensive efficiency.

The last four meetings between the Heat and Nets have finished with 205 points total or lower. That includes one game that finished 96-95 with an overtime. Brooklyn has scored 97 points or fewer in each of the last three meetings between these two.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The LA Clippers are a completely different team with a healthy Kawhi Leonard on the floor. Kawhi Leonard is still one of the best defenders in the NBA. The Clippers are first in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the last eight games. They are allowing less than 1 point per possession.

The Suns are a solid 11th in the NBA in defensive efficiency during that time. 

The Suns are playing at a slightly below league average tempo of 16th. The Clippers are 21st in the NBA in tempo in the last eight games. 

The two offenses are 11th and 16th in the NBA in offensive efficiency in the last eight games. 

These two teams are going to battle for positioning in the logjam that is the NBA Pacific Division. I think this total is a few points too high considering the changes in the two teams lately.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* This is a rare early start at home for the Houston Rockets. It's a weekday early start because of the MLK Holiday on Monday. 

The Detroit Pistons have been playing some very good basketball in the last few weeks. The main reason for that has been their improved play on the defensive end. Detroit is 6th in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the last ten games. 

Both Detroit and Houston are playing at a slightly slower pace than the NBA average in the last ten games. This total is set at a pretty high number.

Houston is 4th season to date in defensive efficiency. The Rockets have length and they have been able to bother a lot of shots. 

Both of these teams are good on the defensive glass.

Early start times have trended under pretty heavily in the NBA in the last 15 years. That has been especially true of games outside of the eastern time zone.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oklahoma City Thunder have won 14 games in a row. They have the best record in the Western Conference, and the second best record in the NBA. Oklahoma City can be great on offense at times, but their defense is what is consistently leading them to win after win. 

Oklahoma City is first in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the last ten games. The Thunder are only 16th in pace in the league.

Boston is 4th in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the last 10 games. The Celtics are 28th out of 30 in pace. 

The Celtics are the defending champs and I think they get up for a game against a team on a winning streak like this. On the other hand, the Thunder have a chance to prove they are for real here against the top dog.

The early Sunday games have been good under wagers in the last decade. That has been especially true when it is a game outside of the Eastern time zone. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play on Grizzlies* The Sacramento Kings have had a couple of nice wins under their interim coach in the last two games. There were signs of issues in those games though. In the first game, Sacramento trailed the Mavericks without Luka Doncic for much of the game. In the second game, they were down big against the 76ers without Embiid before a massive fourth quarter rally.

The Memphis Grizzlies are without Ja Morant here,  but the Grizzlies are 9-5 in their last 14 without Morant. Memphis has a much deeper team this year, and overall they are fairly healthy. 

Sacramento has been very inconsistent this year, and I don't think two wins should change the perception of the team as much as it has.

I'll take the points with Memphis here.

Take Memphis. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oklahoma City Thunder and Minnesota Timberwolves are two of the very best defenses in the NBA. In fact, in the last 15 games these are the first and second ranked defenses in the NBA in terms of defensive efficiency. These are both teams who have the potential to go deep into the playoffs. 

I expect both teams to be highly motivated here. Oklahoma City is 15th in tempo in the NBA in the last 15 games. Minnesota is 26th in pace in the league in that time. The pace here should be relatively slow.

New Year's Eve games have trended quite a bit toward the under in the NBA in general in the last couple decades. Both teams will be off on January 1st. 

I like the spot for the defenses to show up in a tight hard fought game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Dallas* The Dallas Mavericks are without Luka Doncic here, but the Mavericks are deeper than they have been in recent seasons. Dallas is 6-2 without Doncic so far this season. 

The Phoenix Suns are feeling good about themselves off the upset win of the Denver Nuggets on Christmas. On the other side, Dallas is coming off a loss where they played very poorly against Minnesota on Christmas. I think this is a good spot for Dallas to bounce back.

The Suns are third to last in the NBA in defensive efficiency in their last six games. The Suns are without Devin Booker, and I think it could be tough for them to consistently step up in class.

A buy low on Dallas here.

Take Dallas. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Minnesota Timberwolves are first in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the last ten games. Minnesota is 23rd in the NBA in tempo in the last ten contests. 

Dallas is 10th and they have gradually slowed down a bit over the course of the season. The Mavericks are excellent on offense, but they have locked teams down on defense at home. Dallas is 9-5 to the under at home with an average margin of 6.3 points under the total. That's the biggest under margin at home of any team in the NBA.

Dallas is sixth best in the NBA in home points allowed per game. Minnesota is fourth best in the NBA in points per game allowed on the road.

This is an early Christmas Day contest. The NBA Christmas Day games have been good to under bettors in general, but the earlier games on Christmas have been far better to the under than games occurring later in the day. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* In the last 8 games, Minnesota is the top NBA defense and it isn't very close. The Timberwolves are allowing 0.999 points points per possession in that time. The second best team is allowing 1.036 points per possession. 

Minnesota is 26th in offensive efficiency during that time. The Atlanta Hawks are only 23rd in offensive efficiency during that time too. Atlanta is 15th in defensive efficiency.

Minnesota is one of the slower paced teams in the NBA. The Hawks do play at a fast pace, but that is definitely accounted for in this high totals number.

Brian Forte is one of the best under referees in the NBA. The under is a whopping 569-470 in his games in his career. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Minnesota Timberwolves have been playing lockdown defense of late. Minnesota is easily first in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the last five games. They are allowing just 0.938 points per possession during that time. They are 24th in offensive efficiency during that same period. Minnesota has been settling for too many bad shots on offense. Minnesota's pace is 24th quickest in the league, so they are playing slowly.

LeBron James is out for this game for the Lakers. James has the lowest individual defense rating of anyone on the Lakers team. The other guys who will get more time have a worse offensive rating, but have been significantly better than James on defense. The Lakers are 22nd in pace in the last five games.

Aaron Smith and Marc Davis are two of the referees in this contest and they have been two of the very best under refs in the business.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* In the last six games, the Cleveland Cavs have the fourth best defense in terms of defensive efficiency. The Miami Heat have the tenth best defense in terms of defensive efficiency.

Miami is 28th in that time in tempo. I'm confident the Heat will have a good game plan ready. That game plan should including slowing the game down and trying to win in a lower possession environment. 

The last three games between these two have been below this total. I think both defenses should bring the intensity here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Pacers* The Orlando Magic beat the Pacers last week in Orlando. Now, it is the Pacers turn for some revenge. Paolo Banchero is now out with an injury and the Magic just aren't the same level of team without their superstar. Orlando is averaging less than 95 points per game in their last five games. Wendell Carter is also injured and he is the team's leading rebounder.

Indiana is coming off a great showing in their last game. I think they keep it going and get quick revenge on a shorthanded Magic team.

Take Indiana here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oklahoma City Thunder have length and athleticism all over the place on the court. So far this season, the Thunder are easily first in the NBA in defensive efficiency. Oklahoma City is allowing a little less than 95 points per game so far this season. 

The Portland defense is league average so far this year, which is a clear improvement from a year ago. 

Portland's offense is bottom five or so in the NBA. The Blazers just don't have very many efficient scorers. I think Portland will try to slow the pace of this game down a bit. 

Oklahoma City is first in the NBA in defensive efficiency, but they are only 23rd in offensive efficiency. 

Divisional games early in the season have been strong to the under in the NBA in the long run.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* I'm not sure that oddsmakers have caught up with how fast the Chicago Bulls are playing. They are playing more than 3 possessions per game faster than the second fastest paced team in the NBA. 

The Bulls also happen to have a terrible defense. Chicago is 28th in transition rate allowed, so the Magic should get plenty of run out chances here. The Bulls are bottom five in the NBA in rim rate allowed. Orlando was first last year in the NBA in rim rate. The Magic are going to get to the hoop and have plenty of close looks.

Chicago is putting up a lot of three pointers and Orlando is 23rd in the NBA in 3 point defense. The Bulls have plenty of paths to scoring too.

The fast pace is helped by officials who have trended toward the over here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Early in the season the divisional games in the NBA have gone under the total at a high rate in the last decade. This is a divisional matchup between teams who know each other very well. In fact, they played each other in their last game two days ago. The final score in that one was 109-106. The pace was very slow (95.5 possessions) and both teams shot the ball above average, but it still stayed under this total.

The last four meetings between these two teams have been: 175 points, 215 points, 204 points, and 215 points. All four under this total.

Both of these teams have started this season out playing at a slower pace on average than they did a year ago. They are tied for 21st in the NBA in tempo.

I'll take the under here. 

*3 Star Play on Bulls* The Bulls have a pretty decent lineup with Lonzo Ball back at point guard now. The Bulls also have Josh Giddey who has logged a lot of good minutes in the NBA the last few seasons. Coby White, Torrey Craig, and Patrick Williams are solid guys who are underrated by many.

New Orleans is a good team, but not a team with a big home court advantage or a team that is particularly good laying a big spread. 

Early season in the NBA underdogs have outperformed against the spread for the last decade. I'll grab the points here.

Take Chicago. 

*3 Star Play on Dallas* The Dallas Mavericks are down 3-0 in this series, and there is virtually no chance they'll come back and win the series. Still, this appears to be a pretty good spot for them. If you make it to the NBA Finals, you can't give up before the final whistle has blown. The Celtics are a very good team, but they have lacked consistency both in this playoff run and in the last couple playoff runs. 

Boston has to be feeling awfully good about themselves after taking a 3-0 lead with the win in Dallas. They know they don't have to win this game. They would get multiple chances to finish the deal at home. The Celtics are likely to be without Porzingis again for this game too.

Luka Doncic has taken all kinds of heat in the media for his complaining and fouling out in Game 3. Doncic is a really talented player, and he is likely to come with a big effort in this game. It also wouldn't be surprising if he gets a couple extra calls here. The NBA profits more from a longer series and Doncic is a superstar in the league who was embarrassed after last game.

I think the Mavericks will show pride here and take a game.

Take Dallas. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Minnesota Timberwolves were the best defense in the NBA in the regular season. Early in this series we didn't see a Minnesota defense that looked like a great defense. In game four, Minnesota finally ratcheted up the pressure and bothered Dallas. 

Minnesota held the Nuggets to 70 points and 90 points in Game 6 and Game 7 in elimination games. The Timberwolves coaching staff spoke a lot about the focus on defense before and after game four.

The later in the series it gets especially this deep in the playoffs, the tempo of the game typically slows down a bit. There is a lot on the line. 

Dallas has improved in a big way defensively late in the season. They have done a good job on Anthony Edwards in this series. 

Marc Davis is the main referee here and he is one of the best under refs in the NBA.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play on Celtics* The Boston Celtics have had a lot of time off to get healthier and be well rested for this game. The Indiana Pacers just went through a long and grueling 7 game series against the New York Knicks. 

Indiana goes to Boston now to take on a Boston team that is the most talented team in the Eastern Conference even without Porzingis playing. The Celtics are very well balanced as both a great offensive and defensive team. 

The Pacers likely wouldn't have won the Bucks series without Giannis being injured. They also probably wouldn't have won the Knicks series without the Knicks having a multitude of injuries.

Indiana is a good team, but this is a really tough situational spot for them. I think Boston comes ready to play in this one.

Take Boston. 

*3 Star Play on Celtics* The Boston Celtics enter this game extremely well rested. Boston finished off the Miami Heat six days ago. The Celtics were consistently blowing away Miami in that series.

Rested playoff teams starting a series at home have done extremely well agianst the spread in the last 15 years in the NBA playoffs. 

Home favorites of 12.5 points or fewer with 4 days of rest or more are 124-79 ATS (61% ATS) since 2005 in the NBA playoffs.

The Cleveland Cavs went through a long physical series against Orlando. That series just ended on Sunday. The Cavs are far from rested here. Jarrett Allen is questionable at best here, and the Cavs badly need him. Mitchell hasn't been getting much help from the rest of the Cavs roster.

Boston is a deep team that is balanced and strong both on offense and defense. 

Cleveland was blown away consistently in Orlando against a much worse team. They lost by 20 points in New York against the Knicks last year in the playoffs. I think Boston beats them by a large margin here.

Take Boston. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Philadelphia 76ers pulled off a big comeback in the final seconds of regulation thanks to some heroics from Tyrese Maxey. They then won in overtime at Madison Square Garden. Now, the 76ers come home to play a huge game six down 3-2 in the series.

The pace in this series is very slow. The average pace is 91 possessions. With that pace, it takes 1.10 points per possession to get to this total. The defense has been much better in the last couple games of this series.

There is a lot of long term data showing that close out games in the NBA playoffs have been great to under bettors. That is especially the case if it is game six or game seven. Blindly betting playoff close out games in game 6 or game 7 to the under has an ROI of 16% in the last 15 years. This spot is 9-1 in the last 10 situations. 

This game fits the situation and I think both defenses will be ready to go in this key game on Thursday night. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The first game in this series had a total of 216.5. That total was a little too high, but now the adjustment has been too large in my opinion. The total was 210 in game three, and now we are 5.5 points lower.

New Orleans has shot the ball miserably in this series. Brandon Ingram and C.J. McCollum are far better players than they have looked in this series. The Thunder have a good defense, but it isn't as dominant as it has looked in this three game series.

Oklahoma City's offense has gotten rolling in game two and game three, and I think they will continue to score their points here. They have some matchup advantages in this one.

The pace of the games has been about 95 or 96 possessions. These two teams would only need to average 1.08 points per possession to go over this total with 95 possessions as the tempo of the game. 

The Pelicans are likely to regress positively toward their mean in this game. 

Oklahoma City was 3rd in offensive efficiency in the NBA in the regular season. New Orleans was 11th.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Phoenix Suns offense has been terrible in the first two games of this series, but this totals adjustment is too large. The total in the first game was 213.5. We are down 5.5 points.

Phoenix was 10th in the NBA in offensive efficiency during the year. The Suns are likely to get better performances out of Booker and Beal in this game. The Suns defense is only average, and Minnesota can get into the paint against them on a consistent basis. 

The pace of the first two games has been quick enough that even average or slightly below average offensive efficiencies for the teams will equal an over. 

I expect this game to be a bit higher scoring and the total has moved down too much.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on 76ers* The Philadelphia 76ers are down 2-0 in this series. I still believe the 76ers are the slightly better team. They fell apart in the last minute and were the victim of a couple bad calls late in game two.

Joel Embiid, Nick Nurse, and the rest of the Philadelphia team were extremely upset after the way they lost game two. If they don't come out and put forth their best effort here it would be pretty surprising. 

The Knicks played harder than Philadelphia in those first two games at Madison Square Garden. If Philadelphia can even just match the Knicks intensity I give them a good shot to cover here. They are down 2-0, and this game means a whole lot more to the 76ers than it does for the Knicks.

Take Philadelphia. 

*3 Star Play on Thunder* The Oklahoma City Thunder have been resting up and getting ready for game one. New Orleans had to play in the play in spot twice. They just played late Friday night against Sacramento.

A little less than 48 hours later, the Pelicans will travel to Oklahoma City to take on the #1 seeded Thunder in game one. There are loads of ATS angles that strongly support taking teams who are at home and rested in game one. That angle went 4-0 ATS yesterday as well. 

Zion Williamson is out for this one. Without Williamson, Oklahoma City blasted New Orleans by more than 20 on the road in the middle of the season. The Thunder are the top seed, but they have been doubted by a lot of people. I like their young collection of players. Even if the Pelicans give them some trouble in this series, I think this is a good spot for the Thunder.

Take Oklahoma City. 

*3 Star Play Over* These are two teams who have nothing to play for at this point. In the very late regular season contests between two teams with nothing to play for, the over has been a really good bet in the last 15 years in the NBA. 

In the last three games of the year, when the home team has a win percentage of 50% or less and the road team has a win percentage of 57% or less, the over is hitting at about 57% in the last 15 years.

The Rockets haven't played a game where the combined total fell below 219 in any of their last 7 games. Six of the seven have been 223 points or higher.

There will be a lot of guys sit out, but I expect the two defenses to put very little effort in here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* These teams played last night and the Clippers absolutely smashed the Suns. The final score wasn't indicative of how the game went at all. They coasted after getting a massive early lead.

The Suns have held 6 of their last 9 opponents to 106 points or fewer. The Clippers have scored 108 points or fewer in 6 of their last ten games. The Suns have scored 105 points or fewer in six of their last eight games.

Both teams are battling for position in the Western Conference playoff standings. The Suns really need wins to get up to sixth. The Clippers need to hold fourth.

These late season regular season games between two good teams have been great to under bettors in the last 15 years in the NBA.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Heat* The Miami Heat have always been a good road team ATS under Erik Spoelstra. I view him as one of the best coaches in the NBA. Miami goes on the road here with a lot to play for. The Heat actually have a favorable schedule down the stretch, and they absolutely still have a shot to get up to the 6th seed in the Eastern Conference if they get hot late. That would keep Miami out of the play in tournament. That is definitely a high priority for the team.

Atlanta is without Trae Young. The Hawks have been an inconsistent team. Atlanta though has far less to play for right now. They will finish in either the 9th or 10th spot in the Eastern Conference standings. They are heading for a play in position no matter what. 

Miami's upside is clearly higher than Atlanta, especially with the Hawks without Young. I trust Miami to show up with a good effort in a crucial game for them.

Take the Heat. 

*3 Star Play Under* The LA Clippers host the Cleveland Cavs in a rare early Sunday start in Los Angeles on Sunday afternoon. 

Both of these teams have had a good season up to this point. They are also both fighting for playoff positioning. 

This time of the year in the NBA, there can be some games that mean almost nothing to teams. There are also some games that mean a bunch to both teams. This is an example of a game that means a lot to both teams.

These two both prefer to play at a slow pace. There shouldn't many transition buckets in this contest. 

The Clippers have stepped up their defense in recent weeks, but their offense has been subpar. The Clippers have scored 108 points or fewer in five of their last eight games. They will be without Kawhi Leonard again in this one.

These late season regular season games between two good teams with plenty to play for have trended strongly toward the under in the long run.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Denver Nuggets and LA Clippers both have a lot to play for as far as positioning in the standings heading down the stretch of the regular season. The Western Conference standings are bunched tightly together. The Nuggets are tied with the Timberwolves at the top and they are both just one game ahead of the Thunder. The Clippers have been dropping and are still in danger of dropping out of the top four.

Late season games between two teams with this high of a win percentage have been great to under bettors. In fact, games with a total of 220 or higher with high win percentage teams late in the season are above 60% to the under.

Kawhi Leonard will miss this game and Jamal Murray is a game time decision. I expect both defenses to be highly motivated.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Cavs and Denver Nuggets are both bottom seven in the league in tempo for the season. They are also both top ten in the league in defensive efficiency for the season overall.

Jamal Murray is a big offensive catalyst for the Nuggets. Denver has been struggling on offense without him. In their last two games, Denver has scored 97 and 98 points against the Suns and the Timberwolves.

Murray is listed as questionable for this game, but Michael Malone made it sound like on Saturday that Murray isn't ready to play quite yet and the team wants to play it safe with him.

The Cavs have had some of the lower scoring games in the league this year. 

This is a late season game between two teams with a very good record. These games have been great to under bettors in the last 15 years in the NBA. This is also an early start on Sunday and those have been solid unders in the long run.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Denver Nuggets have consistently been one of the slowest paced teams in the NBA this year. They are also 10th in the NBA in defensive efficiency. They are a great offensive team too, but their games have been lower than many expected because of the improved defense and a slower tempo.

Phoenix plays at about the league average in tempo. They are 13th in defensive efficiency for the year. 

This is a very late season game that means a lot to both teams. There are very strong under angles in the NBA for games between two teams with win percentages above 55% late in the regular season. 

Denver is now in the top spot in the Western Conference standings. The Nuggets are just ahead of Oklahoma City and Minnesota. 

Phoenix is tied for the Kings in 7th/8th, but they are only one game behind the Pelicans in the 5th spot. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Indiana Pacers have been an under machine of late until last night. Indiana actually ranks top ten in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the last ten games. The Pacers lost a wild shootout against the Lakers last night, and I think they will give a better defensive effort here. 

The LA Clippers are 26th in the NBA in tempo in the last ten games. They have made a concerted effort to slow the pace down in recent weeks. The Clippers are off a bad defensive performance in a 121-107 loss to the 76ers.

This is a late season game between two teams with a winning record and with a high total. This has been a very strong system to the under in the last decade in the NBA. This game means plenty to both teams.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Milwaukee Bucks have been a different team under Doc Rivers. Milwaukee has slowed the pace down. Overall, they have improved at least somewhat on defense as well. Milwaukee's offense is only 18th in efficiency in the last 5 games though.

Middleton is expected back for this game for the Bucks. Giannis is listed as questionable with a hamstring injury. Middleton back is a positive, but it might take him some time to get back in the swing of things.

Phoenix is playing at a slightly slower than league average pace. The Suns are a little above average for the year in defensive efficiency.

This is a very early Sunday game. It's a noon local start time. Early Sunday unders have done very well in the NBA in the past 15 years. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New Orleans Pelicans are much better on defense than most believe. They are a team that is middle of the pack in tempo in the NBA. 

Atlanta is without Trae Young here. Without Young, Atlanta is a completely different team without Young. They are better defensively, and they are far worse on offense. Additionally, Atlanta is playing at a much slower pace. In Atlanta's last seven games (the games without Young) they are 23rd in the NBA in tempo. In those seven games, Atlanta is third in the NBA in defensive efficiency too. 

I think this total is too high given the situation for Atlanta and the underrated nature of the Pelicans defense.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play on Warriors* To say that the Golden State Warriors were embarrassed in their last game is an understatement. They lost 140-88 at Boston in that last game. The Celtics are a great team, but Golden State had been playing well and this is a very proud veteran team. They didn't take losing in that fashion well.

Golden State is expected to have Andrew Wiggins back in the lineup for this one. Wiggins is an underrated piece for this team. He's an excellent defender and a solid scoring option to go along with the other elite shooters Golden State has around the floor. 

Giannis is questionable for this game. The Achilles injury is a really tricky one and if he does try to play here, he should be less than 100%. Middleton is also out for the Bucks, and he is a key part of the Bucks offense too. 

Golden State is the more rested team, and they are anxious to get back on track. I like this situational spot for the Warriors.

Take Golden State. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Milwaukee Bucks are clearly playing differently with Doc Rivers as their head coach. They have slowed the pace down and they have been playing much better defense.

Milwaukee ranks 26th in the NBA in pace in the last five contests. The LA Clippers rank just 21st, so they are pretty slow paced as well.

The Bucks are first in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the last five games. The Clippers are 13th. 

Milwaukee's games were totaled extremely high with Coach Griffin, but Rivers and the Bucks are playing differently. 

The Clippers are without Russell Westbrook and they could be fatigued here after playing on Sunday as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Pacers* The Indiana Pacers were absolutely blown away by the Pelicans in their last game. This Pacers team has been pretty solid this year, and they haven't been on the receiving end of blowouts often, especially when Tyrese Haliburton has been healthy. The crazy part about last game is Haliburton was held scoreless. 

San Antonio is coming off a stunning win over Oklahoma City. The Spurs have been consistently terrible and have the worst record in the Western Conference. This is a difficult spot for the Spurs. 

The Pacers beat the Spurs by 41 points in their first meeting. I would expect a focused Pacers team here to bounce back.

Take Indiana. 

*3 Star Play on Wizards* The Washington Wizards aren't a good team, but they have actually played better away from home. This isn't a bet I'm excited to make, but the situation and the systems say it is one that holds value.

The Thunder are coming off a big win over the Clippers last night. That was the huge game for them and they put out a huge effort. This is a letdown spot. 

Non-conference road underdogs getting 12 points or more and less than 45% of the bets are 101-60 ATS (60.5%) in the last 161 in the NBA. 

I'll grab the big amount of points here.

Take Washington. 

*3 Star Play on Bulls* The Atlanta Hawks are 17-36 ATS this season. The Hawks aren't trustworthy. They are laying four points here against a Chicago Bulls team that is a far better defense.

This game means a lot to both teams because they are battling for positioning in the playoff standings (9th and 10th spot). 

The Hawks have been particularly bad when laying points, and I don't think they should be laying this many points against a Chicago team that has played better basketball of late. 

I'll take the points. 

Take Chicago. 

*3 Star Play on Pelicans* The LA Clippers are in a difficult spot here. The Clippers had a long 11 day road trip that just ended. The best players on the Clippers roster played heavy minutes the last couple games as well. Now, they come home and play their 4th game in six days.

New Orleans has been playing really good basketball. The Pelicans are playing only their 2nd game in the last five days. They have won three straight games and all of their key players should be without minutes restrictions here.

The Pelicans are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings between these two teams. Grab the points here.

Take New Orleans. 

*3 Star Play Under* Both the Timberwolves and the Thunder rank in the top five in the NBA in defensive efficiency for the season and for the last ten games. These two teams are winning with their defenses. 

Both of these teams are coming off ugly losses. Detroit beat OKC in a stunner on Sunday. Minnesota lost to the Spurs on Saturday. 

These teams are tied at the top of the Northwest Division. This games means a lot to both teams. In the NBA, the long term trends strongly suggest that more important games where both teams are highly motivated leads to more unders.

In the last five times these two teams have played each other- four of those games have stayed under the total. 

The intensity should be high here, and I like this one to stay under the total. 

*3 Star Play on Orlando* The Memphis Grizzlies are coming off two wins and feeling good about themselves. This is still a very shorthanded and offensively challenged Memphis team though. The Grizzlies are dead last in the NBA in offensive efficiency on the season. They are without both Ja Morant and Desmond Bane. Those are their top two offensive players. 

Orlando is coming off a blowout at the hands of Cleveland. The Magic have had several days to think about that game.

Road teams who are good (above 50% win percentage) coming off a blowout loss have been fantastic bets in the NBA in the last 15 years. The Magic fit the spot here. 

Orlando is healthier now with Franz Wagner back in the lineup. Wagner can take over the game.

Take Orlando to bounce back here.

*3 Star Play on Cavs* The Cleveland Cavs have won 7 straight games. It has been their defense that has led the way through the streak. Cleveland is playing the best defense in the NBA of late. 

Miami's Cole Anthony tweaked his ankle on Sunday. They said he should be ok, but it wouldn't be a surprise if he misses this game or plays fewer minutes. Franz Wagner is the team leader and he came back from injury on Sunday. There's a chance he'll be sat out here on a back to back scheduling spot. If he does play, I think his minutes will be watched closely. 

Orlando is in a tough scheduling spot. The Magic have been playing a bunch lately, and the Cavs are clearly the more rested team here.

Take Cleveland. 

*3 Star Play Under* Even in today's NBA, this is a very high total. The Indiana Pacers are without star Tyrese Haliburton and they haven't looked like the same team without him. With Haliburton, the Pacers are first in the NBA in offensive efficiency on the season. In the last three games without him, they have been a bottom ten team in the NBA in efficiency on offense. 

The Pacers have also played a bit slower without their floor general leading the way. The Pacers backups have been solid on defense.

The Utah Jazz have shot the ball extremely well their last couple games. This is an average team offensively for the year, and regression is likely coming for them.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Both Orlando and Miami are in the bottom ten in tempo in their last five contests. Both Orlando and Miami are also in the bottom ten in the NBA in offensive efficiency in that time span.

This is a divisional contest where the two teams are fighting in the standings- right now they are even. 

Orlando is without Wagner, their leading scorer, in this contest. Jimmy Butler is expected to miss this game for the Heat too. Tyler Herro is doubtful as well. That is some serious scoring threats likely to be out for this one.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play on Minnesota* The Minnesota Timberwolves have lost two straight games. They haven't lost three straight this year, and I don't think they'll do it here either. 

Good teams bouncing back on the road has been a great angle in the NBA in the last 15 years. The Timberwolves fit that in every way. Minneosta has the best record in the Western Conference. They are first in the NBA in defensive efficiency. Minnesota is a deep team with several different guys who can take over a game.

Houston has been good at home this year. The Rockets are a decent team. Still, their very best is clearly quite a bit lower than the Timberwolves very best.

I think we'll see the Timberwolves respond here with a strong effort.

Take Minnesota. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Denver Nuggets are clear favorites here, and Denver is the second slowest paced team in the NBA. Golden State is just 13th in the league in tempo. The Warriors don't play as quickly as they did a few years ago.

This is a really high total for the projected pace here. Earlier this year these two teams met, and the total in that game was set at 228 points. The game finished 108-105. 

Christmas Day unders have done very well in the NBA in the long run. That has been especially the case in early day games. This one is a rare 12:30 pm local time tipoff in Denver.

Both of these two rank in the top ten in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the last five games.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Portland Blazers and Utah Jazz have met three times already this year. Two of the games finished 226 and 214 points. The other game went into overtime, but at the end of regulation it was 212 points. 

Portland is last in the NBA in offensive efficiency when playing at home. The Utah Jazz are second to last in the NBA in offensive efficiency when playing on the road.

Utah plays at a league average pace and the Blazers play much slower than the league average.

The lead referee in this game is Brian Forte. The under is 530-438 in his games in his career. He's been one of the best under refs in the league.

Take the under in this divisional battle.

*3 Star Play on Heat* I like the spot here for Miami. The Heat are coming off a big loss to the Cavs at home. They have had three days to get ready for this game. Miami is in a good place injury wise compared to most teams. Erik Spoelstra is one of the best coaches in the NBA and I like this as a good spot for the Heat to get back on track.

Charlotte is just 7-13 on the season and they are only 8-12 ATS so far this year. The Hornets defense is a big weakness.

Miami was laying 6.5 last time these two met in Charlotte earlier this year. Miami coming off a poor game gives us some line value.

Take Miami. 

*3 Star Play Under* Do I really want to bet a Pacers/Bucks under? No. This number is so high though. It is the highest total in an NBA game this year. This is a strange mid afternoon start time in Las Vegas on a neutral court. It is a semifinal game in the NBA In Season Tournament. 

The players do seem to care at least a decent amount about the In Season Tournament. The Bucks defense has improved a bit in recent weeks and the team has been talking a lot about needing to step up defensively in a game like this. 

Indiana plays quickly and they are a good offense. The Pacers recent games being so high scoring has pushed this total up quite a bit.

Earlier this season these two met and the total was 239.5. This is a huge adjustment for a game being played a little less than a month later. The first game hit 250 points with good shooting numbers. 

I'll take the under here. 

*3 Star Play on Wizards* The Orlando Magic just beat the Washington Wizards 139-120 just a couple days ago. Orlando was 17 for 27 from 3 point range in that game. It's highly unlikely they can do that again. 

Orlando's stock has never been higher. The Magic are playing very well. Is this a game where Orlando is highly motivated to run up the score though? Orlando plays tomorrow in Brooklyn in what is a much bigger game and where the Magic will be underdogs. 

The spot here is great for Washington since they don't play again until December 6. A chance for revenge very soon and a chance to sell high on the Magic.

Take Washington. 

*3 Star Play on Heat* The Chicago Bulls haven't won back to back games all season. They are now being asked to do it tonight against a Heat team with quick revenge on their minds. 

Miami led much of their recent matchup against the Bulls. Chicago made a big late comeback and beat the Heat in the end.

Road teams with revenge has been a good angle in the NBA, especially when it is quick revenge. 

I trust the Heat more than the Bulls, and I like the spot.

Take Miami. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Charlotte Hornets have played a string of very high scoring teams in a row of late. The Hornets have taken on the Pacers, Mavericks, and then the Wizards twice in a row in their last four games. They now take on the New York Knicks who play a completely different style of basketball. 

New York is bottom five in the NBA in tempo. The Knicks are also top five in the NBA in defensive efficiency. The Knicks aren't likely to get intro a track meet with the Hornets here.

This is an extra early tipoff at Madison Square Garden. These Sunday early tip times have been good to under bettors in the long run in the NBA.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Blazers* The Portland Blazers are road underdogs in Sacramento tonight. Portland is coming off a loss to Memphis in their last game. Road underdogs off a loss has been a good angle in the NBA for the past decade. Portland is in that spot here. The Blazers have won in Toronto and in Detroit already this year.

Sacramento will be without De'Aaron Fox. He is one of the most important players to his team in the league. Fox is the facilitator of this offense. He's the guy they turn to in the biggest spots. The Kings deserve to be favored here, but this is too many points.

Take Portland. 

*3 Star Play on Indiana* The Indiana Pacers have looked like an elite offense early in the season. Indiana has scored 143, 125, and 106 points in their first three contests. The 125 point total was up against a very good Cleveland Cavaliers defense.

Boston is an excellent team, but they haven't been good at covering big spreads the last few seasons. If we go back to 2010, Boston is just 94-128 ATS (42.3% ATS) when laying 8 points or more. Since 2016, they are just 40.2% ATS when laying 8 points or more. 

Indiana has the offense to get a backdoor cover here even if the Celtics get out to a sizeable lead in the first three quarters. 

Boston is very good both offensively and defensively, but they are laying a huge number against an Indiana team that is far from a bottom feeder. I see the Pacers as a middle of the pack type team.

I'll grab the points. Take Indiana. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Dallas Mavericks and Memphis Grizzlies meet tonight. Dallas has had two high scoring games this year so far, but the Grizzlies are one of the best defensive teams in the league. Marcus Smart is a great defensive player, but his efficiency numbers on offense aren't likely to be very good especially with the Grizzlies shorthanded right now.

With Smart and Jackson the Grizzlies have two of the very best defensive players in the league. I do think they can matchup better defensively with Dallas than most teams. 

The Mavericks have played fast so far this season, but I think that is at least partially because of who they have played against in those two games. 

Divisional unders early in the season have been great in the past decade.

The referees in this one are a big plus for lower scoring. Two of the three refs here have a large sample size and are 54.4% and 55.7% to the under in their career.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New Orleans Pelicans and Memphis Grizzlies square off in a nice divisional contest in their first game of the new season for both teams. 

Early in the NBA season the under has typically cashed a bit more frequently than the over in the past 20 years. The angle is much stronger when it is a divisional game. The higher the posted total the stronger the angle has been. 

This is a high total because games between these two are typically pretty fast in pace. Both of these teams were top 6 in defensive efficiency last year. 

Marcus Smart is a good add for the Grizzlies team. Without Ja Morant, the Grizzlies are without their offensive star. Smart is an excellent defender though. Jaren Jackson Jr. is one of the best defenders in the NBA.

Herb Jones is a strong defender for the Pelicans. The Pelicans slowed their pace down last year on the whole to a league average. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Game two went over the total because both teams shot the ball lights out. It still only finished at 219 points. The Heat made 17 three pointers and the Nuggets shot 52% from the floor. Miami scored a ridiculous 1.291 points per possession and the Nuggets scored an above average 1.241 points per possession. 

The pace of the game was a very slow 86.5 possessions. Miami has clearly decided to try their best to slow the pace of this series down. It worked in game two. They'll likely do it again here, and I don't think we can assume the shots will keep falling at this rate either.

This is pivotal game for both teams. It was assumed the Nuggets were going to roll to a win after game one and the first half of game two. Denver did some sleepwalking on defense in the fourth quarter of Game 2. I wouldn't think that will happen again. The Heat are an above average defense and they have decided to let Jokic score and try to cut down on his assists.

I like this one to be a tighter lower scoring game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Boston Celtics have gotten back in this series with their defense. Boston has turned up the pressure defensively. Miami is an above average defensive team, and for the majority of the season they were a below average offense.

In Game 5, the game finished at just 207 points despite the two teams shooting the ball well. In fact, they averaged 1.25 and 1.115 points per possession in that game. The pace was just 87.5 possessions in that game. That was the slowest paced game in the series.

In the NBA playoffs, as the games get bigger the pace generally slows down. The stakes are massive for this game. Boston is in a win or go home spot, and yet you could argue the pressure has shifted back onto Miami. They don't want any part of this series getting evened up at 3 and going back to Boston. No NBA team has blown a 3-0 series lead. They certainly don't want to be the first.

This total has been adjusted down a bit, but I don't think it is enough. This should play out like a game where both teams feel their backs are up against the wall in a must win spot. 

Malcolm Brogdon is banged up for the Celtics and Gabe Vincent is injured for the Heat too. Those guys had been key offensive contributors down the stretch.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Miami* The Boston Celtics came into the Conference Finals round as a -110 favorite at many books to win the NBA Championship. How did this team get to be rated so highly? Their coach is clearly in above his head, and the team has multiple times just completely shut it down and quit in playoff games this season. 

Boston has more talent than Miami, but it hasn't been nearly a big enough edge. The Celtics are at a massive coaching disadvantage, and their team chemistry clearly isn't even close to level with Miami. 

Caleb Martin's emergence as a tremendous player for the Heat has taken them to the next level of late. Gabe Vincent has been excellent as well. Jimmy Butler is the best player on the court in this matchup.

Of course it is possible Boston could show some heart and rise up for a game. If they had a better coach or this game were at home I would lay off here. Given the situation, I have to bet Miami. The Heat should be ready to finish this one at home and get in plenty of rest.

Erik Spoelstra might be the best coach in the NBA. His teams are 39-20 ATS in the playoffs dating back to 2020. Going back to 2012, his teams are at 60% ATS in the postseason.

Take Miami. 

*3 Star Play on Miami* Erik Spoelstra is one of the best coaches in the NBA. Spoelstra has consistently helped his team peak at the right time. He is a playoffs coach. Jimmy Butler gets a lot of praise and it is well deserved regarding his playoff performances, but Spoelstra doesn't get enough credit for how he has his teams ready to play when the stage is bigger. 

Dating back to 2011, Spoelstra's teams are 59% ATS in the playoffs. He puts his team in a great position to win games. 

Boston clearly has the more talented team, but the Celtics just lost two games at home to the 76ers last round. They are an inconsistent team this season. The Heat went to Milwaukee and won two games in Round One. They also won at MSG last round. 

Miami is the more rested team here. The Celtics had to play a Game 7 on Sunday. Well rested teams have been good in Game One of an NBA playoff series over the last decade. 

I'll grab the points. 

Take Miami. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Miami Heat host the New York Knicks in Game 6. The Heat have a chance to finish off this series and go to the Eastern Conference Finals. I think there is a good chance they will do so, but I'm going to back the under here.

Game 6 and Game 7 in the NBA playoffs have been good to under bettors. The game typically slows down a bit and the defensive intensity increases even more. These are two above average defensive teams. Both coaches are well known for being good defensive minds. 

The Knicks have been a team that is prone to scoring droughts. Jalen Brunson has been consistent, but the rest of the team has been streaky shooting the basketball. The Heat have been very good offensively in the playoffs, but I still doubt that in the long run they can continue to shoot the basketball this well against good defenses.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The stats from the 76ers overtime one point win over the Celtics in Game Four are really something else. The game played to a snail's pace at 86 possessions. That's the slowest pace of any game in the NBA playoffs so far this postseason. 

Both teams shot the lights out in that game. Philly had 1.22 points per possession and Boston had 1.21 points per possession. Despite shooting the ball tremendously, the game had 214 points before overtime. Even if we assume the pace will be a bit quicker in this one (it likely will be) the teams have to shoot the ball well to get past this posted total. 

If there are 91 possessions in the game and the teams average 1.15 points per possession, that would be between 209 and 210 points. These are two top eight defenses in the league. At times Boston has shown the ability to shut the opposition completely down. I don't expect James Harden to continue to shoot the percentage he shot last game.

At 2-2 this is clearly a huge game for both teams. I expect the intensity to be there in this one.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play on Warriors* The spot here is a very good one for Golden State. The Warriors cannot afford to go down 0-2 with two losses at home. 

The Lakers had the rest advantage in game one of this series, but they no longer have that advantage. Anthony Davis played 44 minutes in game one. LeBron James played 40 minutes as well. The Warriors sat their stars quite a bit more. 

Don't be surprised if the Golden State key players play more minutes in this one. Golden State dug a hole and came back to tie it in game one only to come up a bit short.

Anthony Davis is a really talented player, but he has the tendency to be inconsistent. He's had one great game and one mediocre game in a pattern for a good while in the playoffs. He will be pretty good here, but I'm not sure he can replicate his game one performance. 

The Lakers lost by 10 and 17 in two of the three road games in Memphis. Golden State has been fantastic at home this year at 35-10. The Warriors are 40-19 ATS in their last 59 home games. 

I expect a strong performance from the home team here.

Take Golden State. 

*3 Star Play Under* Game One in this series saw the 76ers pull off a big upset in Boston 119-115. The Celtics defense in that game was very weak. I would expect a much stronger effort from Boston here. Boston is a top three defense in the NBA. They should be able to come up with a much better plan to slow down James Harden in Game two. 

Joel Embiid is doubtful to play in game two. The Sixers offense clicked beautifully in game one, but in game two I expect them to see much tougher resistance.

The pace of game one was just 91 possessions. The offensive efficiency numbers were off the charts in game one. The 76ers averaged 1.293 points per possession and the Celtics averaged 1.278 points per possession. 

Even if we assume the pace will be two possessions quicker than last game and then normalize the offensive efficiency to about 1.16 points per possession (still good numbers offensively) the total would be slightly under 216 points. 

I think the three point adjustment up in this totals number gives us some value to take the under in the second game. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* It's game seven of what has been the most exciting first round series in the NBA playoffs. Golden State shockingly was blown away at home in Game 6, so we are back to Sacramento for Game 7.

It is win or go home time for both teams. There is a bunch on the line in this one, and that usually means the defensive intensity picks up a bit more. The tempo is usually a bit slower. It will still be pretty fast in this matchup, but I think it will be a tick slower than the other games in the series. Many times in the past the refs will let them play a bit more in a game 7 as well, so hopefully we don't run into a ref crew that wants to make this all about them. 

Three of the six games in this series have stayed under this total even before they reached this critical game seven contest.

Game 7's in the NBA playoffs are 35-22 to the under in the last 57 with an average overall winning margin of about 5 points per game. 

It isn't easy to take an under between these two, but the long term systems have me on this under at a high number.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play on Warriors* The Sacramento Kings have had a great season, but I think it ends here. The Golden State Warriors have been dominant at home this year. Golden State is 40-17-1 ATS in their last 58 home games. The Warriors are now the healthier team too. De'Aaron Fox didn't score in the last quarter of Game 5, and he is at least somewhat bothered by his broken finger on his shooting hand. 

Golden State has so many different options on offense. I continue to think Andrew Wiggins is very underrated in this offense as the third scoring option. Draymond Green is a very good facilitator as well. Golden State's defense has been much better on their home floor, and they should give the Kings enough problems here.

Sacramento has to be discouraged given starting the series 2-0 only to be trailing 3-2 now. The Kings are a team on the rise for the long run, but I think they lose and fail to cover in this one. 

Take Golden State. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Milwaukee Bucks had the 4th best defense in the NBA in terms of defensive efficiency in the regular season. Miami was an average offensive team in the regular season. 

The Miami Heat have been absolutely shooting the lights out so far in this series. Miami has been torching the nets from 3 point range. Duncan Robinson is shooting 76.5% from 3 point range in this series. Jimmy Butler is shooting 53% from 3 point range in the series. Gabe Vincent is shooting 47.6% from 3 point range. Butler is fantastic and the Heat's offense has been very good, but I don't think they can keep up this ridiculous shooting. 

Milwaukee is in a win or go home situation here. The Bucks should bring the intensity in a big way here. 

Milwaukee's offense has been inconsistent and the Heat do have a strong defense. Spoelstra is a really good defensive mind.

These closeout games have been solid for under bettors in the long run, and I think the pace should slow down a bit in a game of this magnitude. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Milwaukee Bucks and Miami Heat are averaging an insane 1.244 and 1.235 points per possession in the first two games of this series. It's extremely hard to continue to shoot the ball that well, especially in the playoffs when the intensity is very high.

The Bucks and Heat are both above average defenses. Erik Spoelstra is an excellent coach, and I would expect him to have a good defensive game plan to slow down the Bucks after the Heat were awful on defense in Game Two. 

Giannis is questionable here. I do like the play whether he plays in this one or not. The Bucks have the guys to make life difficult for Jimmy Butler. 

The regular season meetings between these two teams were far lower than these two playoff games have been. I think we see some regression to the mean.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Golden State* The Golden State Warriors come home down 2-0 to the upstart Sacramento Kings. The spot screams Golden State. The price isn't cheap, but I'm going to lay it and trust the defending champs to rise up here. 

Golden State is without Draymond Green, but Green isn't the player he was a few years ago. The Warriors also have better depth than they had in some past years. I expect guys like Jordan Poole and Andrew Wiggins to have bigger games at home here. 

Golden State is 39-16-1 ATS in their home games this year. They have only lost 8 games at home this year. While this is a fairly big number to lay, the total is 240.5 and with a total that high laying 6 isn't as tough as it would be with a low totaled game.

The Kings are still a young team and the Warriors have to win this one. 

Take Golden State. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Philadelphia 76ers made 21 three pointers in Game One of this series. Brooklyn shot better than 60% for the majority of the game and still lost by a large margin. 

The pace of the game was an extremely slow 90.5 possessions. Set to a normalized points per possession figure for these two, a game at that pace should finish with about 206 or 207 points total. The first game was abnormally high because of the white hot shooting in the first half.

I'm going to bet that the shooting here cools off. These are both above average defenses and I think there will be some good adjustments made. 

I think this total is a few points too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Phoenix Suns have a very good team, and they are good at dictating the pace with Chris Paul running the show. Paul's teams have tended to like to play in the halfcourt more than not. The Suns this year are the same way. They are an above average defensive team too.

Paul George is out for the Clippers, and he is primarily an offensive star. Kawhi Leonard is a defensive superstar and he should be able to make the Suns stars take some difficult shots here. Tyronn Lue is a good defensive minded coach too.

This total is the same it was earlier this month when these two played in the regular season. This game means much more.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* This is technically the first game of the playoffs with the play in tournament now complete. 

The Brooklyn Nets and Philadelphia 76ers square off here. The Nets have slowed their pace down drastically late in the season. They rank 27th out of 30 teams in the NBA in tempo in their last 15 games. Philadelphia ranks 30th in tempo in that time frame. This game should be played in the halfcourt. 

Game one in the NBA playoffs tends to be a bit of tighter game with slower tempos to begin with. Early start times have been positive for under bettors through the playoffs and even more so in round one of the NBA playoffs.

The intensity should be up in this one, and I think the open shots will be tougher to come by than normal.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Thunder* The Oklahoma City Thunder have been proving people wrong all year long. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a superstar leading the Thunder all the way. In my opinion, SGA is the best player on the floor in this game. That is especially the case with Anthony Edwards banged up right now.

Minnesota gets Rudy Gobert back in this one, but there are clearly major chemistry problems with Gobert and the rest of the team. Minnesota isn't likely to get the amazing three point shooting from Mike Conley and company that they did in the Lakers game (at least in the first 3 quarters). The Timberwolves are an inconsistent team that actually enters this game not playing particularly well late in the season. 

The Thunder have covered the spread in 57% of their games this year. I think this game goes right down to the wire, so I'll take the points.

Take Oklahoma City.