*3 Star Play on Ryan Blaney over Chase Elliot* Chase Elliot has been a bit off of late. He starts in 35th in this race. Pocono has been pretty tough to pass at in the past, and this is a lot of ground to make up. Ryan Blaney was very fast in practice despite being in the slower grouping of cars. 

Blaney has a higher average driver rating than Elliot does at Pocono. Blaney was very quick last week before making an error in the pits late. 

I like the value here on Blaney. Take Blaney over Elliot. 

*3 Star Play on Truex Jr. to finish ahead of Kyle Busch* Martin Truex Jr. has been fantastic at Dover. He won the race at Dover last month. Many of the drivers are saying the track here at Nashville is extremely similar to Dover this weekend. Truex Jr. had a top three car throughout practice. He starts in sixth place and I would expect him to be very good here.

Kyle Busch starts 11th and his car was outside the top 20 in practice speeds. Busch is a great driver, but his car wasn't good at Dover earlier this year either. 

Take Truex Jr. over Busch in this one. 

*3 Star Play on Truex Jr. over Logano* Joey Logano is in a Ford and the Ford teams have been off so far this weekend at Sonoma. Martin Truex Jr. is well known for being a strong road course racer, and the Toyota teams seem to be much better than Ford on the whole so far this weekend.

Truex Jr. starts eighth and he was the second fastest car in practice in the one lap time span. He was 5th fastest in the 5 lap time span. A very solid practice for him. Joey Logano starts 17th and he was 21st and 13th in the one and five lap averages respectively. 

Take Truex over Logano here. 

*3 Star Play on William Byron to finish ahead of Martin Truex Jr.* William Byron was blazing fast in practice for this race. He has a great recent history at Martinsville as well. This paperclip style racetrack is hard on the brakes and Byron's driving style is good for this short track. 

Martin Truex Jr. went in the faster of the two practice times (a fresher track in the first practice he went in) and even then his practice times were far slower than Byron. Truex hasn't been nearly as good in recent outings at Martinsville. 

Take Byron here. 

*4 Star Play on Logano vs. Truex Jr.* This is the Bristol race on dirt. There is certainly some variance in something like this with several wrecks and some unknowns. Still, I find value in this matchup.

Martin Truex Jr. hasn't been bad on dirt. He has finished 19th and 21st in the two Bristol dirt races. He is 10th in average driver rating. 

Joey Logano is 1st in average driver rating in the two Bristol dirt races. Logano has finished 1st and 3rd in those two races.

Logano starts 12th here, while Truex Jr. starts all the way back in 27th. I like Logano at this price.

Take Logano to finish ahead of Truex Jr. 

*3 Star Play on Chris Buscher over Kyle Busch* Kyle Busch will have to go to the back at the start of this race. Track position is key at a race like this and dropping down to 38th at the start of the race is a big hit. Busch was only mediocre at practice turning the 19th quickest 1 lap time and the 14th fastest 5 lap average. I don't see him being a guy who gets into the mix here for the win. He'll likely find it hard to get into the top 10. In fact, Kyle Busch has just one top 20 at a road course this year.

Chris Buescher has three top 15 finishes at road courses already this year. Buescher also starts 7th on the track here at Watkins Glen. He was really fast at practice turning the 6th fastest single lap and the 4th fastest five lap average. I think he'll be a factor all day long barring a wreck or mechanical failure. 

Take Chris Buescher to finish in front of Kyle Busch here. 

*3 Star Play on Michael McDowell to finish ahead of Daniel Suarez* Michael McDowell has a road racing background, and he has been showing it of late. McDowell has finished in 12th or better in four of the last five road course races. McDowell ran well at Dayton and COTA this season. 

Daniel Suarez usually runs middle of the pack on road courses. Suarez isn't a terrible road course racer, but he doesn't have the same kind of consistent upside that a guy like McDowell has either. 

Take McDowell over Suarez. 

*3 Star Play on Brad Keselowski over Denny Hamlin* Brad Keselowski has finished in the top five in eight of the last nine races at Martinsville. No one has led more laps at Martinsville than Brad in the last seven races here. He has led 717 laps here during that time. Denny Hamlin has led only 203 laps in those seven races. 

In those last seven races, Keselowski has finished in front of Hamlin six times, while Hamlin has beaten Keselowski only once. 

Drawing the pole position and getting a great pit stall is really important at Martinsville, and Keselowski has that pole position. 

Take Brad Keselowski over Denny Hamlin in a Nascar matchup on Sunday. 

*3 Star Play on Kurt Busch to finish ahead of William Byron* Kurt Busch has been tremendous at Texas. How good? He has a top ten in his last seven starts at Texas. He has the fifth best driver rating of anyone in the last seven races at Texas. He has been extremely consistent. 

Busch is still in the playoffs, while William Byron isn't in the playoffs anymore. William Byron's driver rating is 17th at Texas in his starts at this track. Byron has only two top tens in his last five races here.

Kurt Busch will start 8th here, while Byron will start 11th. 

Busch is 5th in average driver rating at Atlanta as well. Byron isn't even in the top 20. Atlanta is considered the single most similar track to Texas. 

Busch should have the advantage in this one. 

Take Kurt Busch to finish ahead of William Byron in this Nascar matchup. 

*3 Star Play on Brad Keselowski over Denny Hamlin* Denny Hamlin said himself that Las Vegas is "Really our Achilles Heel." Hamlin has no top fives in his last six races at this track. In his career, his average finish at Las Vegas is only 14th. 

Brad Keselowski's record at Las Vegas is amazing. Keselowski hasn't finished outside the top 10 in his last 10 starts at Vegas. Keselowski has four top fives in his last six races here. Hamlin has no top fixes and only two top ten's in his last six starts at Vegas.

Earlier this year at Las Vegas, Hamlin finished 17th and just didn't have the speed he needed. Keselowski had a solid race and finished 7th.

I'll lay the very short price here.

Take Keselowski over Hamlin.

*3 Star Play on Clint Bowyer over Kurt Busch* Clint Bowyer has said many times that he sees Richmond as one of his very best tracks. In general, Bowyer and Kurt Busch are pretty even teams, but it is surprising to see Bowyer as an underdog of this price against Busch at Richmond. 

We are getting a nice plus money price on Bowyer despite the fact that he has beaten Busch four times in a row at Richmond. 

These two start near the same spot on Saturday night. I think Bowyer has a better than 50% chance of finishing ahead of Busch, so I'll gladly take the plus money price.

Take Clint Bowyer over Kurt Busch.

*4 Star Play on Jimmie Johnson over Ryan Blaney* Jimmie Johnson is neck and neck with William Byron and Erik Jones in the playoff standings. Johnson is at his best race track here and it is a great chance for him to try to put some room between him and those cars.

Johnson said after the race on Saturday that he needs to drive a clean race and not take so many chances that it could hurt them, because Sunday is a chance to get a bit of a lead on his competition.

Ryan Blaney has a terrible history at Dover. His average finish in 7 races here is 19.71. He has one top 10 in those 7 races. Johnson has five top 10's during that time.

Take Jimmie Johnson over Ryan Blaney. 

*3 Star Play on Clint Bowyer over William Byron* Clint Bowyer has been excellent at Dover in his career. Bowyer has 16 top 10's at Dover in his career and he has four top 10 finishes in his last six races here. Bowyer is fighting hard in the points standings and he needs a good showing here.

William Byron has just one top ten in his four races at Dover. Byron has an average driver rating of just 80.7 at Dover in those four races, while Bowyer has a driver rating of 91.5 in his last six races at Dover.

Bowyer starts fourth here and track position could be a big key in a shorter race. Look for Bowyer to have a solid finish, and Byron is a question mark at this track.

Take Clint Bowyer over William Byron.

*4 Star Play on Chase Elliot over Kyle Busch* Chase Elliot is coming off a win last weekend, and Elliot is going to one of his best tracks. 

Elliot has six top five finishes in eight races at Dover where NASCAR will be racing on Saturday afternoon. 

Importantly, Elliot starts on the pole for this short 311 mile race. He gets the best pit stall as well. That is a big plus for him.

Kyle Busch will start 22nd in this one. Busch has had a really tough season (for him), and in a race this short starting so far back could be a big problem. Busch hasn't had the speed Elliot has had on 1 and 1.5 mile tracks most of this year either.

Take Chase Elliot over Kyle Busch here.

*4 Star Play on Jimmie Johnson over Aric Almirola* Jimmie Johnson has won 11 times at Dover. Johnson says this is his favorite track, and many would say it has been his best track. It's the last spot Johnson won a race as well. 

Johnson has shown himself to be much better when NASCAR is running the 750 horsepower package this year compared to the 550 package. This race will be with the 750 horsepower package. Johnson has four top 10's in his last six races at Dover. 

Aric Almirola had some nice results earlier this year, but he has been slumping of late. Almirola's successes were with the 550 horsepower package that will not be used this weekend as well. Almriola has zero top 10 finishes at Dover in his last five races here. 

Johnson needs the points badly since he is on the bubble in the standings. I think he has a good race here.

Take Jimmie Johnson over Aric Almirola.