*3 Star Play on Braves ML* I'm high on Spencer Schwellenbach's ability to be a very good big league pitcher. Schwellenbach has elite control, and he gets hitters to chase a bunch of pitches outside of the strike zone. 

Brayan Bello is due for more regression to the mean. He has an 2.33 ERA and a 5.17 expected ERA and a 5.55 FIP. Bello is striking out only 5.67 batters per nine innings this year. 

Bello has a terrible day/night split in his career. In day games he has a 1.64 WHIP while at night it is 1.32. Schwellenbach has a great 0.99 WHIP in day games in his short career.

The Braves started the season terribly, but I think they are a more complete team than the Red Sox. Atlanta has been playing much better in recent weeks. I'll back the road team with the better starting pitcher here.

Take Atlanta. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Seattle Mariners are second in the majors in wRC+ on the road. Seattle is also third in the majors in wOBA on the road. Seattle's lineup has hit Nick Pivetta extremely well in the past. Pivetta has allowed a whopping .443 weighted on base average in 96 plate appearances. He has allowed ten home runs in those 96 plate appearances as well.

Pivetta started the season on fire, but he has struggled a bit more in his last couple starts. He isn't a bad pitcher by any means, but I do think he is due for some regression to the mean. 

Emerson Hancock is a below average starter up against an above average San Diego lineup. Hancock has a 6.91 ERA and a 5.94 expected ERA so far this season. His expected batting average allowed is in the bottom 4% of all pitchers in the majors according to Baseball Savant. The Padres should have plenty of scoring chances.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play on Detroit Tigers ML* The Detroit Tigers are 15-5 at home this year. The Tigers have been underrated by the oddsmakers, and I think based on this price they are still being undervalued.

Brayan Bello hasn't pitched nearly as well as his top line numbers. Bello has a 2.01 ERA, but a 5.56 expected ERA and a 5.58 FIP. He has stranded 97.1% of runners on base which is absolutely going to regress toward the mean over time. 

Detroit's offense is 6th in the majors in wRC+ and I think they can do some damage against Bello in this one. 

Boston's offense is above average, but Holton is a good opener for the Tigers. Montero shows some signs of promise for Detroit, and the hope is not starting will help take some pressure off him.

Boston is a middle of the road team right now, and they are favored at Detroit? 

Take Detroit here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Kansas City Royals offense isn't good. The Royals are 25th in the majors in weighted on base average. Witt is a star, but he doesn't have enough help around him in this lineup.

Even at this low number, 10 of the Royals last 14 games have gone under this total. The Royals have an above average bullpen, and their defense is very good. 

Cole Ragans starts here, and Ragans has a 3.79 ERA, but an excellent 2.28 expected ERA and a 2.38 FIP. Ragans has a .347 batting average on balls in play allowed so far this year, and that is bound to positively regress toward the mean over time. Ragans is striking out an insane 14.38 batters per nine innings, and he is one of the best lefties in the majors.

Garrett Crochet has a 2.02 ERA and 2.84 FIP. Crochet is another excellent lefty. The Boston left hander has allowed two runs or fewer in six of eight starts this year. He should be able to slow this Kansas City offense.

The home plate umpire here is Ron Kulpa, who is an excellent under umpire based on his long history of a high strikeout/walk ratio. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The New York Yankees start Will Warren here. Warren has plenty of potential, but thus far it just has not worked out. He had a 5.23 ERA in Triple A in 2023. He had an ERA over 10 in a little over 22 innings last year. He has a 5.67 ERA so far this season. He is in the bottom 1% of all pitchers in baseball in average exit velocity allowed (93.7 mph). He has a home run problem.

Osvaldo Bido ranks in the bottom 5% of all pitchers in the majors in strikeout rate. He is in the bottom 25% in expected ERA as well. 

The Yankees are first in the majors in most offensive categories. The Athletics are top ten in most of them too. 

Sutter Park is the second most hitter friendly park in the majors so far this year. These two lineups should get plenty of scoring chances in this game.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The LA Dodgers and Arizona Diamondbacks both rank in the top five in the majors in total offense. They are two deep lineups with the ability to score through stringing together singles or through the long  ball. 

Eduardo Rodriguez has a 5.92 ERA on the year, and he has been torched by the Dodgers lineup in the past. The Dodgers have a .329 batting average and a .382 wOBA against him in his career. Freddie Freeman has really hit him hard.

Roki Sasaki has major control problems. He has 20 walks in his 30 and 1/3 innings pitched. He's walked at least two batters in every start despite only going six innings once all season. He isn't getting batters to swing at the balls out of the strike zone thus far.

Chase Field is a top three or four hitters park with the roof open and the roof is scheduled to be open for this game.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Dodgers ML* The LA Dodgers are the best team in baseball. It's pretty rare you'll be able to find them in this price range. Yamamoto has become one of the best pitchers in baseball. He has a 0.90 ERA and a 2.27 FIP on the season. He is striking out 11.03 batters per nine innings.  

Brandon Pfaadt has a 5.06 career ERA at home. He has a 5.31 expected ERA this season overall. The Dodgers lineup has hit him hard in the past. They have a .329 batting average and a .398 wOBA against Pfaadt in 85 career plate appearances.

The Dodgers lineup is excellent and the bullpen is sixth in the majors in FIP. The DBacks bullpen is 23rd.

The price is too low for me to pass here.

Take the Dodgers. 

*3 Star Play on Mets ML* The New York Mets are coming off a 5-1 loss to the Arizona Diamondbacks last night. The Mets still have one of the best records in the majors. The Mets have no clear weakness. Their starting pitching is solid. Their offense is clearly above average. The bullpen is very good. 

Kodai Senga starts here for the Mets. Senga has been excellent this year. He has a 1.38 ERA and a 2.76 FIP. Senga has proven himself to be a very good starter in the last three seasons. Senga has dominated this Arizona lineup too. The Diamondbacks lineup has a .148 batting average and a .177 weighted on base average against him in 60 plate appearances.

Merrill Kelly is a decent starter too, but he is a level below Senga. Kelly has allowed a .355 wOBA against the Mets lineup. Pete Alonso has 3 HR's against him in 16 at bats.

The Mets are 3rd in the majors in bullpen FIP. The Diamondbacks are 21st. Arizona's bullpen isn't deep enough.

Take the Mets here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Mariners take on the Athletics in Sacramento on Tuesday night. Seattle is first in the majors in weighted on base average on the road. They get to play in a very hitter friendly park in Sacramento on Tuesday night against a middle of the road left handed starter in Springs. 

Springs has a 7.20 ERA and a .374 wOBA allowed in games at Sacramento. On the road, Springs has a 3.26 ERA and a .270 wOBA allowed. 

Emerson Hancock starts for the Mariners here. Hancock has a 6.62 ERA on the season thus far. Hancock just doesn't get enough swings and misses with his stuff. He is in the 14th percentile in the majors in whiff rate and 13th percentile in chase rate. The Athletics offense has some young talent and I think they'll be able to do damage here.

Both bullpens have been used heavily of late, especially after going into extra innings on Monday night.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Philadelphia Phillies host the Arizona Diamondbacks on Saturday evening. Arizona is 6th in the majors in runs per game. The Phillies are 5th in the majors in runs per game at home. 

Aaron Nola has lost velocity on his fastball, and his breaking pitches have had far less run to them this year. Nola is in the 24th percentile of major league pitchers in expected batting average allowed. He has a 5.40 ERA on the season. He has 11 walks in his last four starts. 

Brandon Pfaadt is due for some regression. He has a 2.78 ERA and a 3.93 FIP and a 5.01 expected ERA. 

The weather calls for winds of about 10-12 mph with higher gusts blowing out toward center and left center field during the game. There is a chance for some rain/thunderstorms popping up during this game. 

If there is a rain delay, the bullpens might get some extra work. Both of these bullpens are in the bottom ten in the majors in bullpen ERA.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Mets ML* Sonny Gray's velocity is down quite a bit this year. Gray's strikeout rate is also his lowest since 2017. He has an ERA of 3.60 and an expected ERA of 4.02. He isn't a bad pitcher, but he isn't as good as he once was.

Clay Holmes has been excellent for the Mets. Holmes has a 2.64 ERA with a 2.18 FIP so far this season. He is an extreme ground ball pitcher, and he is racking up the strikeouts at a rate of more than 10 strikeouts per nine innings pitched. 

The Mets bullpen is top five in all the advanced statistics. The Cardinals bullpen is around 20th in the majors in most of the advanced numbers.

The Mets lineup has crushed Sonny Gray in their past appearances. In 118 plate appearances against Gray, the current Mets lineup has a .384 weighted on base average against Gray. 

Take the Mets. 

*3 Star Play on Tigers ML* The Detroit Tigers start Casey Mize in this one. Mize has a 2.12 ERA and an expected ERA of 2.44. In 48 plate appearances, the current LA Angels offense has a .156 batting average and a .179 weighted on base average against Mize. 

Yusei Kikuchi has 4.31 ERA and a 4.68 FIP on the season. He also has allowed a .423 weighted on base average in 46 plate appearances against the Tigers lineup. 

The Tigers are 4th in the majors in bullpen ERA. The Angels are 28th in the majors in bullpen ERA.

There's no doubt the Tigers have the better lineup as well. The Angels rank bottom five in most offensive categories on the season. Detroit is still being doubted in the marketplace, and I'm going to take them with all the advantages they have in this matchup.

Take Detroit. 

*3 Star Play on Padres ML* The San Francisco Giants start a talented youngster in Roupp here. Roupp has high upside, but he hasn't proven to be consistent especially when it comes to finding the strike zone. He has 3 walks or more in 3 of his 5 starts this year. Roupp is up against a good Padres lineup here.

I am very high on Padres starter Michael King. He has a 2.18 ERA and a 2.91 FIP on the season thus far. He is averaging 10.91 strikeouts per nine innings. In his last five starts, he has a 1.48 ERA. 

The Padres have the best bullpen FIP so far this season. San Diego has a lot of good arms out of the bullpen. They have the fifth highest strikeout rate of any bullpen in the majors. They also have the third lowest walk rate of any bullpen in the majors. 

In 72 plate appearances against King, the Giants have a .210 batting average.

Take San Diego. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Texas Rangers have had a ton of low scoring games this year. In fact, 13 of the Rangers last 14 games have gone under this posted total. Their last six games have all finished with 7 total runs or fewer. 

The A's have been a relatively high scoring team, but they play in Sacramento for their home games and that is a clear hitters park. Even with that being the case, 10 of their last 15 games overall have finished under 8.5.

Jacob Degrom is still working back from his injury, but he has looked much better in his last couple starts. Degrom is still one of the best pitchers in baseball, and I think he can have a solid start here.

Jacob Lopez starts for the A's here. The Rangers offense is bottom five in the majors in weighted on base average this year. 

Texas is 5th in bullpen FIP and the Athletics are 11th, so these are two solid bullpens.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Houston Astros have one of the best bullpens in baseball. They are loaded with depth in the bullpen, and they are second in the majors in FIP and 4th in ERA. Ronel Blanco has pitched into some bad luck, and he starts in this one. I still think Blanco is at least a pretty good starting pitcher. His expected ERA is more than 1 full run lower than his ERA right now. 

Jack Flaherty starts for the Tigers. Flaherty is a proven very good right handed pitcher. He has a 2.63 ERA and a 3.07 FIP. Flaherty is striking out 11.20 batters per nine innings. The Tigers bullpen is also ranked top five in the majors in ERA.

The Astros offense is bottom five in the majors against right handed pitching. The Tigers offense is below average against righties. 

Both pitchers have had great success going against the opposing lineups in this one. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Colorado Rockies are 5th in the majors in weighted on base average at home. Coors Field is obviously a fantastic hitters park. The Cincinnati Reds are third in the majors in wOBA on the road so far this year. 

Nick Lodolo is a good pitcher, but his strikeout rate is down this year and he is due for regression. A pitcher due for this much regression heading to Coors Field is a warning sign.

Ryan Feltner has been much worse at Coors Field in his career, and he has been far worse in the first half of the season than he has been in the second half of the season in his career.

These two bullpens are very bad. The Rockies bullpen is third worst in the majors in FIP. The Reds bullpen is worst in the majors in FIP. Both of them are bottom three in the majors in SIERA as well. There should be plenty of scoring chances late in this one.

Coors Field day games with warm temperatures have been great to over bettors. That factor alone has been north of 60% in the last decade. The average wind in this one is blowing out to center field at about 17 or 18 mph. These are great conditions for the hitters.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The New York Yankees are tied for the top spot in the majors in weighted on base average offensively. They are first in the majors in wRC+. This is a deep lineup with a ton of power all through the lineup. The Yankees hitters have tremendous career stats against Jose Berrios. In 113 plate appearances against the Yankees, Berrios has allowed a .323 batting average and a .437 wOBA. Aaron Judge has 5 career home runs against Berrios. Cody Bellinger is 3/4 with a homer against him as well. Berrios has a 5.02 ERA and a 5.43 FIP on the season thus far.

Carlos Carrasco has a 6.53 ERA and a 5.74 FIP on the season. Carrasco gives up loads of hard contact and has a very high home run rate allowed. The Blue Jays do have some power in the lineup, and Carrasco is completely capable of giving up a big number here.

The two bullpens are average and there should be scoring chances against them as well.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Pirates ML* The Los Angeles Angels have overachieved in the early going. They started really hot, and they have been coming back down to earth in recent games. They are 3-7 in their last 10 games. The Angels had a season win total of 72.5 before the season, and I would be really surprised if they end up being a .500 team.

The Pittsburgh Pirates aren't a good team, so I'm not going to pretend they are good. The Pirates have a couple advantages in this game though. The Angels bullpen is third worst in the majors in ERA and third worst in FIP on the season thus far. The Pirates are 13th best and 14th best in those two categories. 

Andrew Heaney is pitching against his old team here. Heaney has been a fast starter in the March/April period during his career. He has been very good again this year in the early going. Heaney has a 2.13 ERA and a 2.76 FIP. 

Kochanowicz has extremely low strikeout numbers (4.43 strikeouts per nine innings) and his ERA is 6.20 with a 5.79 FIP on the season. 

The Pirates aren't good, but neither are the Angels and the Angels are too big of a favorite here.

Take Pittsburgh. 

*3 Star Play on Nationals ML* The Baltimore Orioles are third in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. They are 29th in wOBA against left handed pitching. 

Mitchell Parker has a career 2.41 ERA when pitching at home at Washington. He has given up a very low .271 wOBA. Parker has also been much better in the first half of the season than the second half.

Dean Kremer has a 4.92 ERA in his career in the first half of the season. He has a 3.75 ERA in the second half. Kremer is off to another bad start this season. The Nationals lineup isn't bad, especially with James Wood and Keibert Ruiz coming of age.

Baltimore shouldn't be favored by this much against a lefty that is at least average (likely a little better). The Orioles are getting too much respect with this line.

Take Washington. 

*3 Star Play on Mets ML* Aaron Nola has really struggled this year. Nola's velocity is way down. He is averaging just 90.7 miles per hour on his fastball, which ranks in the bottom ten percent of pitchers in the majors. Nola has a 6.65 ERA and he has allowed 27 hits in just 21 and 2/3 innings pitched. 

Nola's past history against this current Mets lineup is terrible as well. The Mets have a .363 weighted on base average against Nola. Pete Alonso has six career home runs against Nola. Juan Sota has a .438 wOBA against Nola as well. I like the Mets to get to Nola again in this one.

Tylor Megill has a 1.40 ERA and a 2.21 FIP so far this season. Megill is getting the most swings and misses on pitches outside the strike zone that he has gotten in his career. In 94 plate appearances, the Phillies have just a .202 batting average against Megill.

Take New York here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The wind is expected to be blowing in at about 12 mph with gusts up to 18 mph at Citi Field for this Sunday afternoon battle between the Cardinals and Mets. 

Clay Holmes is off to a nice start for the Mets. He has a 3.66 ERA and his FIP is 2.17, which suggests he has gotten at least somewhat unlucky as well. Holmes is striking out 12.81 batters per nine innings.

Sonny Gray has a solid 3.13 ERA and a 3.94 FIP. Gray has been better in the first half of the season than the second throughout his career. He has also been better on the road.

Bill Miller is the home plate umpire here, and he is one of the top two or three under umpires in baseball. He is a strike caller who frustrates the batters game after game. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Padres ML* The San Diego Padres start Michael King here. King has turned into a legitimate Ace of the pitching staff. King had a 2.95 ERA in 30 starts last year. It isn't just him pitching well in a favorable home park either. King has a better ERA on the road than at home in his career. His career weighted on base average on the road is a sparkling .279. 

Hayden Wesneski has potential, but he has a lot more to prove than does King. Wesneski has had a major home run problem in his short career. He has a 4.00 ERA, but a 4.94 FIP this season.

The Astros have alternated wins and losses in their last 14 games. They won last night when they had the pitching advantage over the Padres. Now, San Diego clearly has the better starting pitcher. The Padres are 15-5, and this is a good chance for them to get back in the winning column.

Take San Diego. 

*3 Star Play on Tampa Bay Rays ML* Carlos Carrasco is well past his prime, and I'm happy to fade him when I can. Carrasco has a 5.94 ERA and a 6.12 FIP this year. Carrasco has had a 5.64 ERA or worse in three straight seasons counting this year. He gives up a ton of hard contact and pitches into a bunch of jams. 

Shane Baz is 25 years old, and he is hitting his stride as a major league pitcher. Baz has a 1.42 ERA and a 2.15 FIP on the season thus far. He has 4 walks and a whopping 27 strikeouts this season. Baz is at home here, and his home weighted on base average is .241 in his career (.304 on the road). 

The Rays bullpen is third in the majors in SIERA so far this season. 

I'll lay the price with the home team here. Take Tampa Bay. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Kansas City Royals offense is struggling in a big way. Kansas City has scored 3 runs or fewer in 7 of their last 8 games. Kansas City has seen 9 of their last 10 games stay under 8.5 runs. 

Clarke Schmidt turned into a very solid starter last year. I don't see the Royals snapping out of their ugly offensive funk in this one against him. 

Kris Bubic has added a sweeper to his pitching arsenal, and Bubic has allowed only 2 earned runs in 18 and 2/3 innings pitched this season. He has a whopping 21 strikeouts on the season already.

Ryan Blakeney is a help to the pitchers with his bigger strike zone behind home plate. 

Though the wind is blowing out a bit here, the temperatures will be very chilly in this one.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Spencer Schwellenbach has pitched as well as anyone in the majors so far this year. Schwellenbach has allowed a grand total of one run in 20 innings pitched this season. He has only issued three walks and has 19 strikeouts. 

Kevin Gausman has been very good this year. Gausman has just three walks in 19 and 1/3 innings pitched this year. He does a good job keeping the ball down in the strike zone and keeping it in the park. 

Roberto Ortiz is a good under umpire. Ortiz should help the pitchers get a few extra strikes called on the corners in this one.

Neither offense is in great form and I think the pitchers will have the upper hand here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Royals ML* Of course the Yankees are a better team than the Kansas City Royals, but Carlos Carrasco is on the mound here for the Yankees against Seth Lugo. The Royals are at least an average team, and possibly a bit better. Lugo is an above average pitcher with great numbers against this Yankees lineup.

The current Yankees lineup has a .200 batting average and a .272 weighted on base average against Lugo. Aaron Judge is 0/11 against Lugo and Jazz Chisholm Jr. is 1/13. Lugo is consistently a mid-high 3's ERA type of guy who doesn't give many free passes.

Carlos Carrasco was once a good pitcher in the majors, but he is 38 years old and way past his prime. Carrasco has a 7.71 ERA and a 6.52 FIP so far this year. In the last three seasons (counting this one) his ERA is above 6. 

It's a solid underdog price here on the significantly better pitcher.

Take Kansas City. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Los Angeles Dodgers were shut out by Ben Brown and the Chicago Cubs last night. The Dodgers stellar lineup isn't going to be shut out many times this year, and now they are up against a subpar starting pitcher in Colin Rea. Rea is likely to make the start here since Justin Steele is banged up. Rea has allowed a .304 average and a .377 weighted on base average against this Dodgers lineup. 

Tyler Glasnow has a lot of good stuff, but he has been banged up a lot and he has been inconsistent. He hasn't had his best command this year. 

The Cubs and Dodgers are two top five offenses in the majors. Both of these teams have plenty of blowup potential on offense to have big innings. Five of the Dodgers last six games have finished with 10 runs or more total scored. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Sandy Alcantara is back and pitching very well again. Alcantara sits at 10.24 strikeouts per nine innings so far this season. Alcantara has always been very good at home, and his numbers against the Nationals are stellar. The current Nationals hitters have a miserable .174 batting average and a .215 weighted on base average against Alcantara. It isn't a small sample size either. Those numbers are from a large sample of 125 plate appearances. I trust Alcantara to pitch well here.

The Marlins have one of the worst offenses in the majors. They have been worse against right handed pitching so far this year. Despite an above average batting average on balls in play, the Marlins have a bottom ten wOBA against right handed pitching this season.

Bill Miller is the home plate umpire here, and he has been one of the three best under umpires in baseball for many years in a row. He consistently has a very high strikeout/walk ratio and he frustrates a lot of hitters.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Athletics are playing home games in Sacramento and before the season there were some very smart people who expected this field to play as a solid overs park, especially on warmer days in Sacramento. Oakland Coliseum was a great pitchers park, and this is a huge change from that. 

Last night's 10-4 win by the A's was a wild one. It was 6-3 in the first inning. The A's offense is a bit better than most people realize. Both Butler and Rooker are budding stars and the lineup has some decent power. Vasquez starts for the Padres, and while he hasn't given up many runs this year, his lack of control and batted ball luck so far this year suggest regression is coming for him.

Bido starts for the A's here, and the Padres solid lineup should be able to get to him here too. San Diego got 11 hits last night and stranded a bunch of guys on base.

The two bullpens are overrated and both teams should see scoring chances later in the game too.

The weather here calls for temperatures nearing 80 degrees by the end of this afternoon. The ball should carry well.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* There have been four games played in Sacramento where the Athletics are playing their home games. The lowest scoring game has had a total of nine runs. The four games have averaged 13.25 runs per game. This is clearly a good park for hitters. The adjustment from Oakland Coliseum which was a great pitchers park to this park is a massive one. The temperature is slowly warming up in Sacramento, so the ball should be flying well.

Springs is a middle of the road left handed pitcher. I expect the Padres to be a good team against lefties this year. San Diego has a deep lineup and I think easy innings will be tough to come by in this one for Springs.

Dylan Cease is a good starting pitcher. Cease is a bit inconsistent though, and the A's do have some power in their lineup. Rooker is still underrated by many people.

The Padres have an average bullpen at best. The Athletics bullpen is clearly below average.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Toronto Blue Jays offense has been a little better than average so far this year, but the Blue Jays have had good batted ball luck. They rank fourth in the majors in batting average on balls in play. This isn't a particularly deep lineup. 

The New York Mets offense hasn't performed well so far this year. I do think they are better than what they have shown overall, but these are tough hitting conditions and against a quality pitcher.

The weather calls for cooler conditions with winds blowing in during this game. The home plate umpire is Doug Eddings who is one of the two or three biggest under umpires in the majors. Eddings consistently has extremely high strikeout/walk ratios. 

David Peterson has been good at Citi Field in his career. Bowden Francis had a 3.30 ERA last year, and his expected ERA was 3.39 so it was no fluke. He has good control and has quality upside.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The New York Yankees offense has been the best in baseball so far this year. The Yankees have the best weighted on base average in the majors despite having an average or slightly below batting average on balls in play. The Yankees are an excellent and deep lineup.

Marcus Stroman is past his prime, and Stroman has been hit hard by this Pirates lineup. The current Pirates lineup has a .359 weighted on base average against Stroman. 

Bailey Falter is a below average lefty and the Yankees have all sorts of guys who can crush left handed pitching.

The wind will be blowing out in this one and it will be warm at around 70 degrees in Pittsburgh. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Cubs have one of the best offenses in baseball. They have scored 10.33 runs per game in their last three games. This Cubs lineup is one of the deepest in baseball. There aren't many easy outs in this lineup. 

The Athletics are playing home games in Sacramento, and this park is much more hitter friendly than the Oakland Coliseum was. The Athletics lineup is likely to be a good amount better at home than on the road this season.

Jameson Taillon starts for the Cubs. His velocity has been down quite a bit in the past year, and he has in general trended downward. He is a bit past his prime, and I think the Athletics should create scoring opportunities here.

Jeffrey Springs starts for the A's in this one. Springs is coming off a great start in the most pitcher friendly ballpark in baseball in Seattle. I think he'll have a tougher time here against this Cubs offense. 

This is a day game and I think the ball will be carrying well.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Atlanta Braves lineup took another hit when Jurickson Profar was suspended for using PEDs yesterday. The Braves are still without Ronald Acuna Jr. and this offense has scored just 8 runs in five games this season. Atlanta has scored one total run in their last three games. 

Dustin May has a superb 2.66 ERA and 0.944 WHIP in the first half of the season in his career. May is a fast starter, and I like this matchup for him against a cold Braves lineup. 

Chris Sale definitely has his work cut out for him against an excellent Dodgers lineup, but Sale has an impressive .219 batting average allowed against this lineup in his career. Sale has a 2.93 ERA in the first half of the season and is known for a being a fast starter as well.

Phil Cuzzi is the home plate umpire here, and he is one of the best under umpires in the business. He is a strike caller who will give the pitchers the corner. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Seattle's T Mobile Park has been the single most pitcher-friendly ballpark in the majors in the last three years. It hasn't been very close.

J.P. Sears has allowed a .191 batting average and an impressive .259 weighted on base average in 101 plate appearances against this Seattle Mariners lineup. Sears is a solid lefty for the A's, and he has a stellar 1.59 ERA in 17 innings pitched at T Mobile Park.

Bryan Woo starts for the Mariners. Woo has an amazing 0.965 WHIP in the first half of the season in his career. Woo has allowed a .167 batting average and a tremendous .182 wOBA in 76 plate appearances against this Athletics lineup.

These two lineups should struggle to get things going. Both of these lineups lack depth.

John Bacon is the umpire here and the under was 17-6 in his games behind home plate last season.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Braves ML* The Atlanta Braves start Spencer Schwellenbach in this one. I'm very high on Schwellenbach as a starter who can continue to improve and be an All Star for many years. Schwellenbach had a 0.975 WHIP in his last 13 starts last year. He has excellent swing and miss stuff. In Spring Training this year, his strikeout rates were about as high as anyone in the majors.

The Padres start Randy Vasquez here. Vasquez is an average starter who is going up against an excellent Atlanta Braves lineup. 

The Braves have lost the first two games in this series, and that makes me like them even more in this spot. 

Atlanta has the deeper and more talented backing up the much better starting pitcher.

Take Atlanta here.  

*3 Star Play on Arizona ML* The Arizona Diamondbacks start Zac Gallen here. Gallen has been a huge moneymaker at home in his career. That is especially true early in the season. Gallen has a 0.928 WHIP overall in March/April so he has been superb to start the season out wherever he pitches. 

Gallen is 38-15 on the moneyline at home in his career. He is up against a pretty good Cubs lineup, but Gallen should be up to the task here.  He had a strong 2.89 ERA in Spring Training, so he is in good form. Gallen's history against the Cubs is great as well. He has a .250 wOBA against the Cubs in 97 plate appearances. 

Justin Steele has a .369 weighted on base average against this Diamondbacks lineup in his career. Naylor should be a good addition to this lineup, and with Marte and Carroll at the top of the order Arizona will be solid offensively.

The favorites have done well on Opening Day in the past decade. I like this home favorite.

Take Arizona. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New York Yankees have scored only 7 runs in this three game series thus far. The Yankees have picked a bad time to go cold at the plate. The Dodgers have won the last two games by a score of 4-2. 

Luis Gil will start for the Yankees here. Gil has good stuff, but he does sometimes struggle with his control. He'll be helped by the home plate umpire in this one.

The Dodgers will go with a bullpen game here. They have some key guys who are well rested.

Doug Eddings is the home plate umpire in this one. Eddings may be the single best under umpire in baseball. He consistently has a ridiculously high strikes called and strikeout/walk ratio. He is an extremely pitcher friendly umpire.

The temperature in the upper 50's with a light breeze blowing sideways should make the ball not carry very well here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Mets are now down 2-1 in this series. They turn to Jose Quintana to try to get the series back to even. Jose Quintana has had a fantastic career in the postseason. In 29 and 2/3 innings pitched he has a 2.43 ERA. He has an impressive 0.94 WHIP. He has thrown 11 innings and given up no runs in this postseason so far. 

Yamamoto will start for the Dodgers here. He has been at his best when pitching on the road too. He has a 2.06 ERA in his eight road starts this season. 

Bill Miller is the home plate umpire for this key game. Miller has arguably been the best under umpire in all of baseball in the last decade. He consistently has an extremely high strikes called percentage and a very high strikeout/walk ratio. He is a very pitcher friendly umpire.

The weather here is helpful as well. A temperature of about 50 degrees and winds blowing in from center field at 10 mph. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Gerrit Cole has a 2.94 ERA and an impressive 0.98 WHIP in his postseason career. That is more than 116 innings, so it certainly isn't a small sample size. 

Tanner Bibee finished the year out strong. He had a 2.64 ERA in September. He pitched twice in the series against the Tigers and allowed just two runs in 8 and 2/3 innings. 

The Guardians had the day off two days ago. They then didn't use their top relievers yesterday. I expect Cleveland to have their very best in the bullpen ready to go for this game.

The Guardians offense has been streaky this year, and Cleveland has scored 2 runs or less in three of their six postseason games thus far in 2024. 

The Yankees have scored 3 runs or less in three of their five postseason games thus far. Stanton has been carrying them along. 

The cooler temperatures make the ball travel less at Yankee Stadium and on the whole Dan Iassogna is a bit of an under umpire.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Royals ML* Seth Lugo has been excellent this season. Lugo comes home with a great chance to give his team a big leg up against the New York Yankees. Lugo has been very good against this Yankees lineup. In 107 plate appearances, Lugo has given up only a .283 wOBA to this Yankees lineup. Aaron Judge is 0/8 with three strikeouts against him. Jazz Chisholm is 1/11 against him with five strikeouts. 

Lugo has four appearances in the postseason. He has thrown only a total of 6 and 1/3 innings, but he has a great 1.42 ERA.

Clarke Schmidt starts for the Yankees here. Schmidt has an 11.57 ERA in just 2 and 1/3 innings pitched in the postseason. The Kansas City Royals offense had drastic splits at home vs. on the road this year. The Royals offense was 12th in the majors in wOBA at home and only 22nd on the road. 

Getting a small plus money price here is something I like. The Royals have great team chemistry and they could easily be up 2-0. This is a great opportunity for them to grab the series lead.

Take Kansas City. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Atlanta Braves have played a lot of baseball the last few days. They are going to need Max Fried to pitch deep into this game. Fried does have a good history against this San Diego Padres lineup. Fried has a pretty good weighted on base average allowed of .298 against this lineup. Fried also finished the season strong. He had a 2.14 ERA in his last five starts of the season. 

Joe Musgrove has been in fantastic form to finish the season. Musgrove has a 2.15 ERA in his last nine starts (since he came back from injury). He allowed 0 or 1 earned run in six of nine starts during that time. Musgrove has even better numbers against this Braves lineup. He has a .282 wOBA allowed against these Braves.

Phil Cuzzi is the home plate umpire here. He is one of the best under umpires in baseball. The under is 50-35 in his games in the last three years. He has one of the highest strikeout/walk rates of any umpire. There's only been an average of 5.4 walks per game in games he has been umpire in this season.

With this being a crucial game in a short series, both teams will use their best bullpen arms.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* This is a low total, but both of these teams have a recent history of a bunch of low scoring games. In the Rays last 12 games, 10 of them have stayed under 7.5 runs. In the Tigers last 12 games, 8 of them have stayed under the total. 

Brian O'Nora is the umpire behind home plate here. He is one of the best under umpires in baseball. He is 17-9 to the under this year and his strikeout/walk ratio of 3.17 is one of the highest in the majors. He is ringing up batters on close pitches. 

The Rays are a bottom five offense against right handed pitching. The Tigers are a bottom five offense against left handed pitching. These are based off year to date numbers in weighted on base average. 

Temperatures in the low to mid 70's are pretty moderate and the wind is blowing sideways for this one.

I like these teams to continue their recent under trends.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Kansas City Royals offense has been abysmal of late. How bad? Kansas City has scored a grand total of 5 runs in their last six games! Kansas City has been second to worst in the majors in wOBA in the last 30 days. Only the White Sox have been worse on offense. That's some bad company to be in.

The Washington Nationals offense has been struggling as well. The Nationals have scored one run or fewer in six of their last eight games. This is an offense that just isn't stringing together good at bats.

Doug Eddings is the home plate umpire for this game. Eddings is arguably the best under umpire in baseball. He is calling the highest percentage of strikes of any umpire in the majors this year. Long term he has done this year after year. Eddings has had a high strikeout/walk ratio consistently year after year.

Herz has a 3.78 ERA at home this year and his performance since the break has been very good. Michael Lorenzen has been solid this year for the Royals as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Braves ML* The Atlanta Braves are in a must win territory at home against the New York Mets. Spencer Schwellenbach starts for the Braves in this one, and he has been excellent in the second half of the season. Schwellenbach has a 3.61 ERA for the year, but it is 3.03 in the second half of the season. Louis Severino has been pretty good this year as well, but he’s been much better at home than on the road. Severino has a 4.80 ERA on the road, and he has pitched slightly worse in the second half of the season. 

The Braves are certainly banged up offensively, but they still have a line up with several hitters who have a good history against Severino. If the Braves want to have any shot to reach the playoffs, this is the biggest game of their season thus far. 

Take Atlanta. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Boston Red Sox host the Minnesota Twins at Fenway Park on Friday night. The weather here is interesting with a temperature of just 61 degrees when this game gets started. There is a big system just off the coast that has led to a lot of wind and rain in and near Boston. The forecast for Friday night calls for winds of about 15 mph blowing straight in at Fenway. Cool temperatures and wind blowing in to that extent is a big help for an under.

Minnesota starts David Festa here. He has good stuff, but has been inconsistent this year. He does sometimes give up the big inning. 

Richard Fitts makes his third start for the Red Sox here. He has allowed no runs in each of his first two starts. 

This is a big game for both teams with the Twins in a Wild Card spot and the Red Sox still within reach if they get red hot right now. Both teams will use their bullpen aggressively in this important of a game. 

With a relatively high total and this weather- I'm on the under here. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Guardians have seen six straight games stay under this total. The Guardians offense is below average against right handed pitching, but they have a great pitching staff and the best bullpen in the majors. Cleveland is a dangerous team in the playoffs because of their ability to shut the opposition down.

Bailey Ober has been throwing the ball really well for the Twins. Ober has a 3.90 ERA on the year and a 3.21 expected ERA. He has a 3.42 ERA in his last 12 starts. He ranks in the top ten percent of all pitchers in baseball in chase rate, so he is getting batters to swing at a lot of tough pitches outside the zone.

Tanner Bibee has a 3.60 ERA and a 3.65 FIP on the season. He has elite breaking stuff and he does a good job limiting walks.

Ober and Bibee have fantastic numbers against the opposition in this game. Ober has a .253 weighted on base average allowed in 84 plate appearances against this Guardians lineup. Bibee has a .269 weighted on base average allowed in 94 plate appearances against this Twins lineup.

This is a crucial game for both teams so I expect all the best bullpen arms to be available.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Guardians are 21st and the Minnesota Twins are 24th in the majors in weighted on base average in the last 30 days. These two offenses have struggled quite a bit coming down the stretch.

The Guardians still have the best bullpen in baseball. That is a great weapon for them to have in key games for the last few innings. Matthew Boyd starts here too, and he has allowed one earned run or fewer in all but one of his starts for the Tribe this year (6 starts). Boyd has done his very best work at home with a 1.56 ERA and a .171 wOBA allowed.

Pablo Lopez struggled in the first half of the season, but Lopez has a 1.93 ERA since the All Star Break. 

Both of these teams have some key bats banged up right now and that has hurt their lineup depth quite a bit.

This is a pitcher friendly park overall, especially with more moderate temperatures and winds blowing in like we will see on Monday night.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Miami Marlins have been hitting right handed pitching pretty well lately, but they are still struggling mightily against lefties. They are second to last in the majors in weighted on base average against left handed pitching this year. 

D.J. Herz has a 2.77 ERA and a 2.92 FIP in his last eight starts. He has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in all but one of those starts. Herz has a great 11.08 strikeouts per nine innings rate and he has good control. 

Edward Cabrera started the season slowly for the Marlins, but he has pitched well of late. Cabrera has a 3.13 ERA in 54 and 2/3 innings pitched in the second half of this season. Cabrera has a 2.95 ERA in his last seven starts.

The Washington bullpen is a major league average. The Marlins bullpen is a top six or eight bullpen in the majors.

Reyburn is the home plate umpire here and he is a solid under umpire. The under is 17-9 in his games behind the plate this year.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Bobby Miller starts here for the Los Angeles Dodgers. Miller has a 7.79 ERA and a 6.80 FIP on the season. Miller has allowed 8 home runs in his last four starts. He also walks a lot of batters.

Jordan Wicks is a decent young pitcher, but he is up against a really good Dodgers lineup here. Wicks has a .301 weighted on base average allowed at home and a .327 wOBA allowed on the road. 

The Dodgers and Cubs both have deep offenses who have been hot of late. They are both top six in the majors in wOBA in the last 30 days. The Cubs have made a nice little run to be at least in the running the NL Wild Card. The Dodgers have gotten healthier and are a top two or three offense in all of baseball.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Chicago Cubs and Los Angeles Dodgers are both in the top five in the majors in weighted on base average in both the last 30 days and last 14 days. These are two deep offenses who don't have many easy outs in the lineup. 

The Cubs struggled offensively against the Yankees in this past series, but they have a much more favorable matchup here. Walker Buehler has come back from a major injury and looked nothing like he did before. Buehler has a 5.67 ERA and his FIP is even worse at 5.98. Buehler has a career low strikeout rate this year and a career high walk rate. He is also giving up loads of home runs. Buehler is giving up 2.17 home runs per nine innings. 

Kyle Hendricks is having a major down season for the Chicago Cubs too. Hendricks has a 6.60 ERA, but his road ERA is 7.89. The Dodgers lineup has smashed him in the past too. This Dodgers lineup has a .354 weighted on base average against Hendricks. Like Buehler, Hendricks has a career high walk rate and a career high home runs allowed rate. 

Dodger Stadium is second in MLB park factors in home runs. Both pitchers allow the long ball at a very high rate, and both teams have a bunch of power.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Los Angeles Dodgers have a top three offense in baseball. They have Mookie Betts back healthy in the fold and that gives them a fearsome top four in the lineup of Ohtani, Betts, Freeman, and Hernandez. 

Griffin Canning is a below average pitcher. He has a 5.19 ERA and a 5.17 FIP on the season. Canning has a terrible history in his small sample size against the Dodgers too. He's allowed 4 home runs and 10 extra base hits in 43 at bats. Hernandez has 4 hits in 6 at bats against him.

Bobby Miller has a 7.25 ERA and a 6.42 FIP on the season. He has an 11.12 ERA on the road. Miller is bottom one percent in all pitchers in baseball in exit velocity allowed. He's not fooling anybody.

Adrian Johnson is a hitter friendly umpire, and he could make a difference in this game.

Both the Angels and Dodgers bullpens rank in the bottom half of the majors in FIP and SIERA over the last 30 days. The Angels dominant reliever Ben Joyce has pitched in three straight games so he might not be called upon in this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Oakland Athletics offense has been streaky this year, but they have a lot of youngsters who have really been great in the second half of the season. Lawrence Butler has been as hot as anyone in the majors of late. Butler is a great table setter. Brent Rooker has been consistently excellent all year. Shea Langaliers has heated up of late, and he has a bunch of power. 

Oakland is 8th in the majors in weighted on base average in the second half of the season. They are 10th in wOBA in the last 14 days. Luis Castillo has an ERA over 4.5 in his last six starts. He has been giving up far too many long balls. Castillo has poor numbers in a small sample size against this Oakland lineup too.

J.T. Ginn doesn't have very good secondary stuff. The Seattle Mariners offense has gotten a bit healthier of late, and it has started to show on the scoreboard. I think Ginn could struggle especially against the top four in this Seattle order. 

The bullpens here have been no better than mediocre of late. Manny Gonzalez has a low strikeout/walk ratio and he is a helpful umpire for an over. This is a low number. 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Atlanta Braves offense deserves a ton of credit for hanging in there as well as possible considering the massive amount of injuries they have had during the season. Lately, they have multiple key bats out of the lineup every day. Ozuna and Olson are really the only two primary guys they have healthy left in the middle of the order. The offense is still decent, but they are nothing like they were when healthy at the start of the year.

Spencer Schwellenbach has been dealing for the Braves. He has a sparkling 2.48 ERA and a 2.07 FIP in his last six starts. He has 53 strikeouts in those six starts compared to only eight walks. 

Aaron Nola has been much better when pitching at home in his career, and that has been the case again this season. Nola has pitched shutouts in his last two starts at home. 

The temperatures have moderated in Philadelphia and this one should see numbers in only the mid 70's so the ball shouldn't carry quite as much.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Chicago Cubs have scored 59 runs in their last six contests. The Cubs offense underachieved much of this season, but they are on fire of late. It's a deep lineup with plenty of power and speed. They are definitely up against a great pitcher in Paul Skenes here, but I think they can make him work and get to the bullpen quicker than most teams have. The Pirates bullpen has been very weak this year. Skenes has been a little bit wild in recent starts too.

Kyle Hendricks is far past his prime. Hendricks has a 7.16 ERA on the road this year. He isn't getting hardly any swings and misses. Hendricks has a terrible .355 weighted on base average against this Pirates lineup. The Pirates have 32 runs in their last five games. 

The over is 86-54 in Edwin Moscoso's games behind home plate. He is one of the best over umpires in the majors. He has proven slow to ring up batters when they have a two strike count.

The weather is helpful here. A temperature of 94 degrees during this one and winds blowing out toward center field at about 7 mph.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Arizona Diamondbacks offense has been absolutely on fire of late. Even without star Ketel Marte, this DBacks lineup has been hitting the ball extremely well. Guys like Perdomo, Suarez, Gurriel, and Carroll have really been seeing the ball very well. 

Arizona is third in the majors in weighted on base average in the last two weeks. The Diamondbacks haven't benefited from any luck in that time either. They have a .290 batting average on balls in play. In the last two weeks, the New York Mets are sixth in wOBA. The Mets have quite a few guys who hit left handed pitching well.

For the season overall, the Mets are fourth in wOBA against lefties. The Diamondbacks are third in wOBA against lefties. 

Chase Field is a hitter friendly park. Sean Manaea and Eduardo Rodriguez are both decent lefties, but at this point in their career neither of them are overpowering. I think there will be traffic on the bases for both teams. 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The weather in Kansas City stands out on Sunday afternoon. A high temperature of 100 degrees and winds blowing straight out at Kaufman Stadium at 15 mph sustained with gusts of 25 mph. 

Kaufman Stadium ranks in the top 5 hitter friendly ballparks in the majors. With conditions like this it becomes a massive plus for the hitters. The over has been extremely good at Kaufman Stadium on very hot days, and in this case we have heavy winds blowing out as well.

Kolby Allard starts here for the Phillies and he usually doesn't go very deep in the game. He is shaky at best, and he is up against a Kansas City lineup that is second in the majors in weighted on base average in the last 14 days. Kansas City is also top five in the majors in wOBA at home.

The Royals have seen 3 of their last 4 games finish with 11 runs or more.

The Phillies have a deep lineup. Seth Lugo has an ERA over 5 in his last five starts. Philadelphia certainly has the power hitters to take advantage of the conditions in this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The San Francisco Giants start Blake Snell here. No pitcher in the majors has been throwing the ball as well as him of late. Snell has a sparkling 1.05 ERA and a 1.30 FIP in his last five starts. He has 55 strikeouts in his last five starts. 

The Seattle Mariners have George Kirby on the mound in this one. Kirby had one terrible start, but in his last 15 starts he has a great 2.75 ERA and a 2.76 FIP. Kirby is a strike thrower to the max with a 1.32 walks rate per nine innings. 

Seattle and San Francisco both rank in the bottom five offenses in the majors in the last 14 days in weighted on base average. These two offenses are up against excellent pitchers here. 

Seattle strikes out at the highest rate of anyone in the majors. Snell should rack up the strikeouts here.

Tripp Gibson is a solid under umpire who should help give both pitchers the corners in this one.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Guardians have scored 1 run or fewer in four of their last five games. The Guardians are second to last in the majors in weighted on base average in the majors in the last 14 days. 

The Texas Rangers have scored two runs or fewer in five of their last seven games. They have underachieved on offense all year. 

Tanner Bibee has an ERA under 2 in his last five games. Bibee now has a 2.36 ERA in the second half of the season in his career. Bibee has allowed just a .241 wOBA to the Texas Rangers lineup. 

Nate Eovaldi has a .242 wOBA allowed against the Cleveland lineup. Eovaldi is a solid pitcher who is up against an offense in a funk right now.

The Guardians have the best bullpen in baseball which is a plus for this bet especially with them favored in this contest.

The weather in Cleveland is mild now and the slight breeze will be blowing in during the game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Tampa Bay Rays have scored 3 runs or fewer in 10 of their last 15 games. Tampa Bay is dead last in the majors in weighted on base average in the last 14 days. 

The Oakland A's have scored 3 runs or fewer in 11 of their last 15 games. In 9 of those 15 games they have scored 2 runs or fewer. 

Both Tampa Bay and Oakland rank in the top 12 in the majors in weighted on base average against left handed pitching. They rank 28th and 20th in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching though. They are both up agianst right handed pitchers in this one.

Ryan Pepiot has had a very solid season. He has a 3.69 ERA and a 3.73 FIP. He has allowed just one earned run in his last three starts combined. 

Mitch Spence has a 4.64 ERA and a 4.38 FIP on the season. Spence has a 3.86 ERA when pitching in Oakland this season. He has allowed two runs or fewer in four of his last five starts.

Tampa Bay has the best bullpen ERA in the majors in the last 30 days. Oakland's bullpen is a major strength as well.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Arizona Diamondbacks got some bad news when Ketel Marte went on the injured list. Marte is the leader for this team, and he's been their most consistent hitter. 

The Miami Marlins have heated up a bit against right handed pitching, but they have been awful against left handed pitching. They are second to last in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties (only the White Sox have been worse and it is very close between those two). 

Eduardo Rodriguez is a pretty decent left handed pitcher who has just two starts this year. He had a bad first outing, but was much better in his second outing. 

Edward Cabrera has been hit hard on the road, but he has been good at home this season. He has great swing and miss stuff, and his potential is very. 

Doug Eddings is the home plate umpire here and he is one of the best under umpires in baseball. His strikes called rate and strikeout/walk ratios have been consistently very pitcher friendly. That should help both pitchers here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Blake Snell has been nearly unhittable of late. Since Snell came back from the injured list on July 9, he has an ERA of 0.99 in 45 and 1/3 innings pitched. He has 60 strikeouts in that span as well. In five of his seven outings during this streak, Snell has allowed no runs. He's been the most dominant pitcher in baseball of late. 

JP Sears has a 2.91 ERA in his last seven outings. Sears has only eight walks in those last seven outings, and his offspeed pitch has really been bothering opposing hitters.

The Giants have scored 3 runs or fewer in six of their last eight games. The A's have scored 2 runs or fewer in 7 of their last 12 games. 

The bullpens are well rested in general and I like this one to stay low scoring. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* We have two starting pitchers who have a high strikeout rate this year. They are inducing swings and misses. The opposition strikes out a lot as well so it is a matchup that could work out well for the starters.

Bido has been great in three of his last four starts despite facing good competition. Birdsong is a pretty highly touted youngster who has been up and down this year. 

This is still one of the best pitcher's park in the majors. Both bullpen are in the top half of the league.

These teams had a day off yesterday and the back end dominant bullpen guys should be saved up and ready for this one.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Phillies -1.5* The Washington Nationals will start Patrick Corbin on Friday in Philadelphia. Patrick Corbin is far past his prime. He has a 7.07 ERA in his last eight starts. Corbin ranks in the bottom 3% of all pitchers in baseball in hard hit percentage allowed so far this season according to Baseball Savant. A guy who was once a high strikeout guy, his strikeout rate now is in the bottom 11% of all pitchers. 

Corbin's history against this Phillies lineup is awful. In 196 plate appearances, Corbin has a .395 weighted on base average allowed. Corbin has a 1.664 WHIP when pitching in Philadelphia and a 6.50 ERA. 

The Phillies are mediocre against right handed pitching, but they are first in the majors in weighted on base average against left handed pitching. Corbin is one of the worst left handed starters in the majors. I am trusting the Phillies to score plenty of runs here. 

On the other side, Washington traded away their best hitter at the deadline (Lane Thomas). Aaron Nola has a .173 batting average and .188 wOBA allowed against this Nationals lineup in his career.  Nola can certainly create swings and misses and this Nationals lineup is young and aggressive. 

I'll take Phillies -1.5 here. 

*3 Star Play Over* Walker Buehler returns from the injured list to start in this one for the Dodgers. Buehler had a 5.84 ERA and a 6.07 FIP in his eight starts prior to being on the injured list. Buehler made three rehab starts. In those 3 rehab starts in Triple A, Buehler gave up nine runs in 12 and 2/3 innings and allowed 16 hits. 

Frankie Montas has a 5.10 ERA and a 4.92 FIP on the season. He has a low swinging strikes rate, and he walks far too many batters. Montas is also allowing a lot of home runs. 

The Dodgers lineup is the best in the National League with Mookie Betts healthy again. The top four in this lineup is a gauntlet that even great pitchers should struggle to get through. 

The Brewers lineup has been very good in recent weeks. While Buehler has the upside potential, he has really struggled with command this season.

David Rackley is a clear over umpire with a tighter strike zone than most. That should help the hitters here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* A pitching matchup of Stone vs. Rea with a total below a key number and two strong offenses has me on the over in this one. 

The Milwaukee Brewers are averaging 6.3 runs per game in their last ten games. The Brewers have some young talent that has really sparked the offensive output in the last few weeks. Jackson Chourio is at the top of that list.

The LA Dodgers are averaging 5.3 runs per game in their last ten games. They just got Mookie Betts back from injury yesterday and he immediately homered. The Dodgers offense is already very good and adding a superstar right near the top of the lineup will help a lot.

Gavin Stone has potential, but he is struggling right now. Stone has a 6.29 ERA and a 6.10 FIP in his last five starts. Colin Rea is due for regression with an unsustainable 80% strand rate on the season.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Minnesota Twins start David Festa in this one. He has been one of the highest ranked pitching prospects in baseball, and he is coming off his best start of his career. Festa has a 1.88 ERA in his last three starts. He has 22 strikeouts in his last 14 innings pitched. He has been a very high strikeout guy during his time in the minors as well.

The Cleveland Guardians offense has hit the skids of late. They are second to last in the majors in weighted on base average in the last 30 days. The only team who has been worse offensively during that time has been the Chicago White Sox. 

Tanner Bibee has been very good the Guardians this year. He has a 3.48 ERA and a 3.39 FIP on the season. 

The Guardians have the best bullpen in baseball, and the Twins have a top 6 or 8 bullpen in the majors too. Neither pitcher is expected to go too deep into the game here, but the bullpens have been excellent.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The San Diego Padres have become one of the best offenses in baseball. The Padres are top five in the majors in wOBA and wins created against right handed pitching. They are top five in the league in both those categories over the last 30 days as well. They are top five in the league in away from home offensive performance. The Padres strike out at the lowest rate of any team in the majors against right handed pitching.

The Miami Marlins still aren't a great offense by any means, but since going young this offense has improved a lot. Edwards and Bride have provided a real spark for the team. Instead of being at the bottom of the barrel in offensive categories, they have been about league average of late. 

Waldron has allowed 3 runs or more in five of his last seven starts. Munoz has a 5.68 ERA and a horrible 7.04 FIP on the season. He has been getting crushed.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Philadelphia Phillies are first in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. The Arizona Diamondbacks are second in the majors in wOBA against. Both of them will be up against a lefty today. 

Jordan Montgomery has drastic splits this year. He has a 4.26 ERA on the road with a .309 wOBA allowed. At home, he has a terrible 8.39 ERA and a .429 wOBA allowed.

In 10 of the Diamondbacks last 11 games they have scored at least 5 runs. Arizona is first in the majors in weighted on base average in the last 14 days. This offense is red hot right now. 

The Phillies have scored 24 runs in their last four games. This is a lineup that is filled with guys who crush left handed pitching.

On the whole, Chase Field is still a hitter friendly park. I like both offenses to put up quite a few runs today.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Oakland -1.5* The Chicago White Sox have broken their 21 game losing streak! Their record has "improved" to 28 wins and 88 losses. 

Oakland is 28-30 at home this year, and the A's are actually 17-12 in their last 29 games overall. Their youngsters have come up and hit the ball very well. Brent Rooker has been fantastic. Lawrence Butler has been a nice spark plug. Shea Langaliers has shown some pop as well.

Joey Estes has a 2.25 ERA in 40 innings pitched at home this year. Estes has a stellar .239 weighted on base average allowed at home. He now takes on a White Sox team that is easily last in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching.

Davis Martin is recovering from a major injury and he hasn't thrown 4 innings in either of his first two outings. The White Sox bullpen has an ERA over 7 in the last 30 days. The White Sox bullpen is likely to throw a lot of innings in this game.

The Oakland bullpen is a top ten bullpen which gives them a huge advantage.

Take Oakland -1.5. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Baltimore Orioles are one of the top three offenses in baseball. They have a really deep lineup full of guys who can hit for power. Baltimore's pitching has really dropped off in the last few weeks. In the last 30 days, Baltimore's bullpen ERA is 4.5, which is 21st in the majors. 

The Orioles have seen 12 of their last 13 games go over this posted total. Baltimore is consistently having very high scoring games both because of their elite offense and their pitching being mediocre of late.

The Toronto Blue Jays have been better hitting in the last few weeks. They are 14th in weighted on base average in the majors in the last two weeks. The Blue Jays have seen 10 of their last 13 games go over this posted total.

Grayson Rodriguez has a .409 wOBA allowed against this Blue Jays lineup. George Springer and Vlad Guerrero Jr. in particular have hit him hard. 

Chris Bassitt has a .454 wOBA allowed against this Orioles lineup. Gunnar Hunderson has 2 home runs against him in just 7 plate appearances. 

I think this total is set too low.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Paul Skenes is arguably the most dominant starting pitcher in baseball already. Skenes has allowed 2 runs or less in each of his last 12 starts. He has a 1.64 ERA and a 2.52 FIP. He has one of the highest ground ball rates in all of baseball. Because of the movement on his pitches, hitters are chasing at a very high rate.

Arizona has been hitting the ball well, but Skenes has quieted even the best lineups and I'm counting on him to do it again here.

The Pittsburgh Pirates are decent offensively against lefties, but they are second worst in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. The Pirates are also bottom four in the majors in wOBA at home. 

Ryne Nelson has a 2.41 ERA and a 2.47 FIP in his last six outings. Nelson has allowed just one home run in his last 37 innings pitched. He has been far better on the road than at home in his career.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Toronto Blue Jays have been hitting much better of late. They underachieved on offense for a long time this season. They have finally gotten it going. 

The New York Yankees are first in the majors in weighted on base average overall and first in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching. 

In the Yankees last eight games, all eight of those games have finished with at least ten total runs. In the Blue Jays last nine games, eight of those have finished with ten runs or more.

Carlos Rodon has a 6.88 ERA and a 6.13 FIP in his last seven starts. Rodon is allowing a whopping 3.06 homers per nine innings in this stretch.

Jose Berrios has a 5.82 ERA and a 5.98 FIP in his last seven starts. Berrios has a .360 wOBA allowed against this Yankees lineup so they have really hit him hard.

The weather is favorable with a heat index of about 100 degrees and a very slight breeze blowing out.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Two of the best young left handed pitchers in the game start in Detroit on Friday night. It's Cole Ragans starting for the Royals and Tarik Skubal starting for the Tigers.

Cole Ragans has pitched significantly better on the road than at home this year. Tarik Skubal has been tremendous at home this year. Skubal has a 1.95 ERA and a ridiculous low .219 weighted on base average allowed at home. 

The Kansas City Royals offense is fifth in the majors in wOBA at home, but they are 25th in wOBA on the road. 

Both of these teams have been below average against left handed pitching, and they are up against really good lefties here.

Skubal has struggled pitching in KC, but when facing the Royals at home he has been excellent. 

Ragans has allowed just 1 hit in 23 at bats against the Tigers lineup he is expected to face on Friday night.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Mariners ML* The Seattle Mariners start George Kirby in this one. He's one of the most underrated starting pitchers in all of baseball. Kirby has the second highest WAR (wins above replacement) of any starting pitcher in baseball this year. 

Kirby has the best control in baseball. He is walking less than one batter per nine innings. He has a 3.03 ERA and a 2.69 FIP on the season. In his last 10 starts, Kirby has a 1.88 ERA and a 1.95 FIP. 

Bryan Bello starts for the Red Sox and he has several things going against him here. Bello has been much worse in his career pitching in day games. Bello has a 5.84 ERA and a 1.672 WHIP in day games in his career. He also has been much worse in the second half of the season than the first half in his career. This Mariners lineup has a .419 weighted on base average against him in 56 plate appearances.

The Boston Red Sox bullpen has been awful of late. Boston's bullpen has an 8.51 ERA in the last 14 days. 

The Mariners have the huge starting pitching and bullpen advantage here.

Take Seattle. 

*3 Star Play on Royals -1.5* The Chicago White Sox have lost 15 games in a row. The White Sox are in the process of trading away some of their better players, so this team is actually getting worse right now. Chicago is dead last by a mile in the all the major offensive categories in the last month. The White Sox have a bottom five bullpen. 

The Kansas City Royals stole one from Chicago last night when Bobby Witt Jr. hit a grand slam to bring the Royals back from behind to win 8-5.

The White Sox have now lost their last four games all by at least three runs. 

Michael Wacha will be the starter for the Royals in this one. Wacha has amazing numbers against this White Sox lineup. In 105 plate appearances, Wacha has allowed just a .185 weighted on base average against this White Sox lineup. The White Sox have a terrible .141 average against Wacha. 

The White Sox are in terrible shape right now, and with this matchup I'm going to side with KC to take care of business again here.

Take Kansas City -1.5. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Miami Marlins offense has been better of late, but I'm not buying that they are going to be able to keep it up. Miami traded away Jazz Chisholm Jr. who had the best weighted on base average on the team before he was traded. The Marlins have a .336 batting average on balls in play in the last 14 days. That is unsustainable and they should come back down to earth soon. For the season as a whole, Miami is third worst in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching.

The Milwaukee Brewers have scored a combined 10 runs in their last five games. Milwaukee is a bit banged up and they have really struggled of late. Tobias Myers will try to help them stop their losing streak in this one. Myers has a 3.14 ERA and a 3.95 expected ERA. 

Kyle Tyler has a 3.92 ERA and a 3.92 FIP on the season. He doesn't pitch deep into the game, but that's actually a good thing in this case. The Miami Marlins bullpen is the strength of their team. It is a top five bullpen in the majors. 

Phil Cuzzi is the home plate umpire here. In my umpire database of 91 home plate umpires, Cuzzi has called the third highest percentage of strikes in the last five years. Cuzzi consistently has a very high strikeout/walk ratio. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Baltimore Orioles have a very good offense, but several of their key players have been in a funk of late. Baseball is a game of momentum and the Orioles offense is just 15th best in weighted on base average in the last month. 

Michael King starts for San Diego here, and he has been amazing in the last couple months. King has a 2.52 ERA and a 2.38 FIP in his last 14 starts. In King's last 8 starts, he has a 2.40 ERA and a sparkling 1.90 FIP. He is striking out 11.40 batters per nine innings during that time.

Dean Kremer starts for the Orioles here. Kremer has historically been much better in the second half of the season than the first. San Diego is exactly middle of the pack in the last 30 and 14 days on offense. 

Ryan Blakeney is the umpire here, and he is a strike caller. He carries a high strikeout/walk ratio over his career.

This one is at the key number of 9, and I'm taking the under here.

*3 Star Play Under* The Chicago White Sox have the worst offense in the majors in the last month, and it isn't close. Chicago also has the worst offense in the majors against right handed pitching this season. 

The White Sox have scored 2 runs or fewer in six of their last seven games. They have also scored 3 runs or fewer in 11 of their last 12 games (the other game they scored just 4 runs). 

The Seattle Mariners offense has struggled badly of late. Seattle has scored 2 runs or fewer in seven of their last eight games. 

George Kirby is a really good right handed pitcher. He has allowed 2 runs or fewer in nine of his last ten starts. Kirby has a 3.20 ERA and a 2.74 FIP on the season. 

Drew Thorpe has a lot of upside and he has allowed 2 runs or fewer in five straight starts.

The weather in Chicago calls for moderate temperatures and winds blowing in about 7 mph during this game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Guardians offense has cooled off drastically of late. Cleveland started the year on fire offensively, but in both the last 14 days and 30 days the Guardians have been a bottom 8 offense in the majors. 

Detroit has hit the ball better of late, but it has been helped by a really high batting average on balls in play. This is still a below average Tigers offense on the whole. 

Jack Flaherty is having a great bounce back season. Flaherty has a 3.13 ERA along with a 3.16 FIP and a 2.48 xFIP on the season. He is racking up the strikeouts. He is striking out 11.35 batters per nine innings on the season. He is walking only 1.52 batters per nine innings.

Tanner Bibee starts for the Guardians, and he has great swing and miss stuff. He is striking out 10.25 batters per nine innings. The Tigers have a lot of high strikeout guys in their lineup.

Phil Cuzzi is the home plate umpire here. Cuzzi has been one of the most consistent high strikeout/walk ratio umpires and a strong under umpire overall for many years. 

Six of the last eight Cleveland games have stayed under this low total.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Garrett Crochet has been one of the best left handed starting pitchers in baseball this year. Crochet has a 3.02 ERA with a 2.43 expected ERA and a 2.35 FIP. In his last 14 starts, Crochet has a 1.74 ERA and a 1.68 FIP. He hasn't allowed more than 3 runs in any of those starts.

The Texas Rangers lineup is just 23rd in the majors in weighted on base average. I think Crochet is a really tough matchup for them. Crochet has great swing and miss stuff.

Jon Gray has been good this year. Gray has a 3.96 ERA and a 3.46 FIP. In his career, Gray has a fantastic .213 weighted on base average against this White Sox lineup. The White Sox are dead last in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching, and it isn't even close. In their last 9 games, the White Sox have topped 3 runs only once (that time was only 4 runs too), so they come into this one ice cold.

Vic Carapazza is 12-8 to the under this year and his strikeout/walk ratio is high. He should help the pitchers as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Colorado Rockies offense is the weakest it has been in many years. Coors Field is still absolutely a hitter friendly park, but many of the Rockies games have been low scoring, especially of late. 

In the Rockies last 9 home games, 8 of the 9 have stayed under this total. The one that went over the total finished at 11 total runs. In fact, 7 of the 9 games finished with 7 runs or fewer. 

Austin Gomber has better numbers at home this year than he has on the road. While the Red Sox are a good offense, they are far better against right handed pitching. The Red Sox are 3rd in weighted on base average against righties. They are 17th in the majors in wOBA against lefties.

Tanner Houck has been tremendous this year for the Red Sox. Houck has a superb 2.54 ERA and a 2.67 FIP. 

The temperature here should be mild in the upper 70's with a wind blowing in from right field at about 8 mph.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Chicago White Sox rank last in both weighted on base average against right handed pitching and wOBA in the last 30 days. The White Sox offense is really bad however you look at it. This team gets held to a very low number very often.

Seth Lugo has been solid all season. Lugo has a 2.48 ERA and a 3.32 FIP on the season. He has allowed no runs in his last 12 innings pitched at home. 

Kansas City is 25th in wOBA in the last 30 days. The Royals offense is just 19th in wOBA against right handed pitching too. Drew Thorpe was excellent in the minors. He struck out 182 batters last year and had a 1.35 ERA in AA earlier this year. Thorpe has a very high upside. 

The wind is expected to be blowing in at about 7 or 8 mph during the game. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Kansas City Royals start Brady Singer in this one. Singer has a solid 3.20 ERA and a 4.01 FIP on the season. In Singer's last five starts he has a 2.67 ERA and a 3.23 FIP. Singer has had drastic home/road splits the last couple years too. Singer has an ERA nearly a full run lower at home than on the road in his career. So far this year, Singer has a 2.72 ERA when pitching at home. Singer's weighted on base average allowed in the second half of the season has been .303 compared to .332 in the first half. 

The Chicago White Sox are dead last in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitchers. This is a good matchup for Singer.

The Kansas City Royals are 27th in wOBA on offense in the last 30 days. The Royals aren't walking much at all, and they aren't hitting for much power either. 

Jonathan Cannon has a 4.41 ERA and a 4.18 FIP. The right hander had one ugly start in Detroit in June, but overall he has been better in his last few starts. 

The slight wind will be blowing in at about 6 or 7 mph during this game. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Washington Nationals host the Cincinnati Reds tonight to start off the second half of the MLB season. 

Patrick Corbin is on the mound for the Nationals. Corbin was once a very good starting pitcher, but that was a long time ago. Corbin is now one of the worst left handed starters in baseball. Corbin has a 5.57 ERA and a 6.29 expected ERA for the season as a whole. The Cincinnati Reds are much better against lefties than righties too. The Reds lineup has smashed Corbin in the past. They have a whopping .515 weighted on base average against Corbin. 

Frankie Montas starts for the Reds here. Montas has a 4.38 ERA and a 4.85 expected ERA on the year. The Nationals are bad against lefties, but are league average against right handed pitching. The youngsters in the Nationals lineup have been good of late.

The weather here calls for mid 80's and a slight wind blowing out.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Texas Rangers offense has underwhelmed for much of the year, but they have finally woken up of late. In the last 14 days, Texas ranks second in the majors in weighted on base average. They have been hitting for power at a much higher rate of late. 

The Houston Astros have been a bit banged up, but Yordan Alvarez was back in the lineup on Friday night and that's a big key. Jose Altuve has been mashing of late too. Houston is sixth in the majors in wOBA in the last 14 days. 

Nathan Eovaldi is a good pitcher, but he has long had major problems getting the Houston Astros out. Eovaldi has a terrible .439 wOBA allowed against the Astros. Eovaldi has given up a whopping 12 home runs in 137 at bats against this Astros lineup. Yordan Alvarez is 11/17 with 3 doubles and 2 homers against him. Jose Altuve has 7 home runs in just 48 at bats against him.

Spencer Arrigheti walks far too many batters. He relies on getting a bunch of strikeouts. The Rangers rank among the six best teams in the majors in lowest strikeout rate. Arrigheti walks 5 batters per nine innings. 

Take the over in this one. 

*3 Star Play Over* There is heavy wind blowing out to center field in this one, and there is rain in the forecast on and off through the night. 

There is a good chance this game would be delayed at some point and there is some chance it would be canceled. If the game is played, I like the over here.

The bullpen is usually seen a whole lot more in rain delayed games. The Rockies bullpen has the worst ERA in the majors by a huge margin. The Mets have the 12th worst bullpen ERA too.

The Mets offense has been red hot in the last few weeks. Tanner Gordon had poor numbers in the minors and I doubt he is successful right away in the majors. The Rockies have major splits vs. righty/lefty. Colorado is much better against left handed pitching and they are up against a lefty here.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The New York Yankees offense is first in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. Shane Baz doesn't have much experience in the big leagues. He has some good stuff, but he is prone to giving up a big inning here and there.

Tampa Bay is bottom five in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching, but they are top ten in the majors in wOBA against left handed pitching. Nestor Cortes has struggled mightily against this Rays lineup. In 126 plate appearances, the Rays lineup has an impressive .382 wOBA against Cortes. 

Edwin Moscoso is the home plate umpire here. Out of 91 umpires in my umpire database, Moscoso is dead last in percentage of pitches called a strike in the last five years. Moscoso also has the single lowest strikeout/walk ratio of any umpire during that time. Not surprisingly, the over is 84-50 in his 134 games behind home plate.

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The New York Mets offense has been on fire in recent weeks. Now, they go up against Patrick Corbin. The current Mets lineup has a really impressive .389 weighted on base average against Corbin. Pete Alonso leads the way with 5 career homers against Corbin.

Corbin was once a very good pitcher,  but that is no longer the case. Corbin is a subpar lefty with an ERA over 5. He gives up very hard contact, and he no longer generates the swings and misses that he did several years ago. The Mets are fourth in the majors in wOBA against lefties this year. This is a good matchup for the Mets offense.

Luis Severino is a really streaky pitcher. Severino has been struggling of late. He has a 6.04 ERA and a 5.61 FIP in his last four starts. The Nationals lineup has been very weak against lefties, but they are 15th in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching. 

Carlos Torres is the home plate umpire in this game. In my umpire spreadsheet where I track all the umpires, Torres is top three in the majors in lowest percentage of pitches called a strike. He continually has a much lower than average strikeout/walk ratio. The over is 85-65 in his games behind home plate.

The wind here is a key as well. Sustained winds of 16 mph with gusts of 20-25 mph blowing out toward center field are expected for this game. The ball should be carrying very well.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Oakland Athletics offense has shown a lot of life lately. Oakland has been giving more of their young prospects a chance of late, and those guys have gone out and produced right away. Oakland has scored 41 runs in their last six games. The A's are top ten in weighted on base in the last 14 days despite having a low batted ball average. 

Joey Estes starts for Oakland here. Estes has been great when pitching at home, but on the road he has been atrocious. Estes has a 7.00 ERA and a .397 weighted on base average allowed on the road this season. 

The Boston offense is above average on the whole and the depth of the lineup is solid.

Brayan Bello has struggled at home with an ERA over 6 so far this year at Fenway.

The weather here calls for winds blowing out at about 10 mph. Fenway is a top 3 hitters park and with warm weather and winds blowing out it is even more that way.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Houston Astros and Minnesota Twins rank second and first respectively in weighted on base average in the last 14 days. Both of these offenses have been on fire of late. 

The Minnesota Twins have seen their last four games all finish with 11 total runs or more. The Houston Astros have seen six of their last eight games finish with 11 total runs or more. 

Spencer Arrigheti is walking more than five batters per nine innings. In his last four starts, Arrigheti has an 8.64 ERA and a 6.94 FIP. 

Simeon Woods-Richardson started the year well, but he has been slipping of late. In his last six starts, he has a 4.55 ERA and a 4.96 FIP. He has allowed six home runs in his last 31 innings. 

The weather here is a positive for runs as well. The temperature will be around 80 degrees with about 10 mph winds blowing out toward center.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Miami Marlins are easily worst in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. Miami has a brutal .265 wOBA against lefties and they are dead last in ISO (power), so this Marlins team is bad all around against lefties. 

The Chicago White Sox are dead last in the majors in wOBA against righties. The White Sox are a right handed heavy lineup, and they have consistently been dominated even by mediocre right handed pitching.

Garrett Crochet has been amazing for the lowly White Sox this year. Crochet has some of the best statistics of any lefty this year. In Crochet's last 12 starts, he has a sparkling 1.63 ERA and a 1.65 FIP. He has 12 walks and 101 strikeouts in those 12 starts. It's a very tough matchup for the Marlins hitters.

Yonny Chirinos has a solid 3.77 ERA and 3.92 FIP this year. Chirinos is actually backed by a pretty good bullpen in Miami too. 

This total is set low, but it is low for good reasons.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Detroit Tigers and Cincinnati Reds are 27th and 23rd in the majors in weighted on base average this year. Against right handed pitching, the Reds are 26th and the Tigers are 25th. 

The Reds have been held to zero or one run in 6 of their last 16 games. This offense is capable of going very quiet. If you look down the order, the Reds batting averages are very poor. It can be tough for them to string together hits.

The Tigers offense rates even a bit worse than the Reds for the season overall. This Tigers offense is young and not very good.

Reese Olson is a good young starter for the Tigers. Olson has a 3.32 ERA and an even more impressive 2.90 FIP on the season. He has been terrific in his last three starts.

Carson Spiers has a 3.13 ERA and a 2.68 FIP this season. He's not a great pitcher by any means, but he doesn't walk many guys and he doesn't give up many home runs.

The Reds bullpen is better than league average and the Tigers bullpen is league average.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play on Astros ML* The Houston Astros have finally heated up. The Astros are 8-2 in their last 10 games overall. Houston clearly has a very high upside. The Astros offense has finally started to click in recent weeks. 

Ronel Blanco has been solid for the Astros this year. He has allowed two runs or fewer in 11 of his 15 starts on the season.

Yusei Kikuchi is a streaky pitcher, and he has been bad of late. Kikuchi has a 7.12 ERA in his last seven starts overall. He has allowed five home runs in his last 11 innings pitched. He has also allowed four runs or more in five of those last seven starts. 

The current Astros lineup has blasted Kikuchi in the past. They have a .439 weighted on base average against Kikuchi in 101 plate appearances. With Kikuchi in poor form right now, I like this matchup for the Astros. 

The Blue Jays are below .500 even at home, and they are just 4-6 in their last 10 games. 

Take Houston. 

*3 Star Play on Mets ML* The New York Mets have been on fire offensively in the last month. They are first in the majors in weighted on base average in the last 30 days at a stunning .373 wOBA. The Nationals are 22nd in the majors in wOBA in the last 30 days at just .300. 

Washington has struggled badly this year against left handed pitching. The Nationals are in the bottom five in the majors in all major offensive categories against lefties. They are bottom three in most. 

The New York Mets are a top three offense against lefties. They have been smashing lefties in recent weeks.

We have a lefty starting for both teams in this one. Sean Manaea is at least a league average lefty and he might be a bit better than that. He has a 3.89 ERA and a 3.81 FIP on the season thus far. 

D.J. Herz has had one great showing and that was against the Miami Marlins who are hapless against left handed pitching. Herz has a couple big negatives against him. First, he walks far too many batters. Throughout his minor league career he carried very high walk rates. Second, he allows too many home runs. 

The Mets have been hot of late, and I trust their offense a lot more in this spot.

Take New York. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Philadelphia Phillies offense is slowed considerably by the loss of Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber. Both of these guys had been contributing in a big way of late. They are both on the injured list now. 

The Miami Marlins have the worst offense in baseball. Miami is bad against right handed pitching, but they are next level bad against left handed pitching. They are historically bad against the lefties. Ranger Suarez is one of the best left handed pitchers in baseball.

Suarez has a fantastic .250 weighted on base average allowed against the current Miami Marlins lineup. He has a 2.01 ERA on the season thus far this year.

The Phillies offense is no better than mediocre in their current state. Both bullpens are top ten in FIP allowed so far this year.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The New York Mets offense has been on fire of late. The Mets are averaging a whopping 6.65 runs per game over a large 20 game sample size in their last 20 games. The Mets have been elite agianst lefties all season. Framber Valdez is a quality lefty, but he hasn't been as overpowering this year as he has been in some past seasons. Valdez has a 3.68 ERA and his strikeout rate is down to just 7.03 strikeouts per nine innings. 

Houston's offense has been waking up in recent weeks. The Astros are still a really talented lineup, and most of the team has underachieved for the year overall thus far. Houston is up against Tylor Megill here. Megill has a 4.81 ERA on the season.

The wind is a key factor here too. The weather calls for winds blowing out to center field at 17 mph at the start of this game. The wind is expected to continue at 15 or 16 mph on average during the contest. Citi Field is a place where the weather has mattered more than the average stadium.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play on Seattle ML* The Seattle Mariners are back home, and they are 27-12 on the season at home. Seattle has one of the best bullpens in baseball. The Mariners also have a very underrated starting pitcher going in this one. Logan Gilbert has a 1.21 ERA in his last four starts. His FIP during that time is an impressive 2.25 as well. Gilbert has only walked one batter in that 4 game span, and he has 28 strikeouts. 

The Twins do have a good lineup, but Gilbert has been great against them in his career. The Twins roster has just a .246 batting average and a .298 weighted on base average against Gilbert. 

Bailey Ober starts for the Twins. Ober has a .340 weighted on base average allowed against the Mariners roster in his career. The Twins bullpen is a bit weaker than the Mariners bullpen too. 

Seattle has struggled against lefties, but they are pretty good against right handed pitching.

I like Gilbert and the bullpen to pitch well here.

Take Seattle. 

*3 Star Play Over* The San Diego Padres host the Washington Nationals in this final game of the series on Wednesday afternoon. 

San Diego has been on fire offensively of late. The Padres have scored 6 runs or more in five of their last six games. 

Washington has scored 6 runs or more in four of their last five games. Dylan Cease starts for the Padres. Cease is ultra talented, but he is very streaky. In his last five games, Cease has an ERA above six. 

D.J. Herz was amazing against Miami a couple starts ago, but they are an abysmal lineup (especially against lefties). The Padres have a deep lineup and should make it tough on him.

Edwin Moscoso is one of the best over umpires in the league. Moscoso is 10-5 to the over this year and the over is 73-43 in his last 116 behind the plate. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Baltimore Orioles are first in the majors in weighted on base average in the last 30 days. Baltimore's offense has had a couple down games in their last three games, but I expect a bounce back soon. This Orioles offense is deep and they have a ton of power.

Cleveland's offense has been one of the biggest surprises in baseball this year. Steven Kwan has been setting the table and Jose Ramirez and company have been knocking in a ton of runs. The Guardians are fifth in wOBA in the last 30 days. 

The Guardians have scored five runs or more in 7 of their last 8 games. Baltimore scored 35 runs in three games right before this very recent minor slump.

Logan Allen has been struggling badly this year. Cole Irvin is due for regression and his long term numbers show he is no better than a mediocre lefty.

The weather matters here too. The game time temperature will be about 90 degrees and the wind will be blowing out to center at about 10 mph. That's a big boost for the over.

Take the over in this one.