*3 Star Play Under* The Atlanta Braves have played a lot of baseball the last few days. They are going to need Max Fried to pitch deep into this game. Fried does have a good history against this San Diego Padres lineup. Fried has a pretty good weighted on base average allowed of .298 against this lineup. Fried also finished the season strong. He had a 2.14 ERA in his last five starts of the season. 

Joe Musgrove has been in fantastic form to finish the season. Musgrove has a 2.15 ERA in his last nine starts (since he came back from injury). He allowed 0 or 1 earned run in six of nine starts during that time. Musgrove has even better numbers against this Braves lineup. He has a .282 wOBA allowed against these Braves.

Phil Cuzzi is the home plate umpire here. He is one of the best under umpires in baseball. The under is 50-35 in his games in the last three years. He has one of the highest strikeout/walk rates of any umpire. There's only been an average of 5.4 walks per game in games he has been umpire in this season.

With this being a crucial game in a short series, both teams will use their best bullpen arms.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* This is a low total, but both of these teams have a recent history of a bunch of low scoring games. In the Rays last 12 games, 10 of them have stayed under 7.5 runs. In the Tigers last 12 games, 8 of them have stayed under the total. 

Brian O'Nora is the umpire behind home plate here. He is one of the best under umpires in baseball. He is 17-9 to the under this year and his strikeout/walk ratio of 3.17 is one of the highest in the majors. He is ringing up batters on close pitches. 

The Rays are a bottom five offense against right handed pitching. The Tigers are a bottom five offense against left handed pitching. These are based off year to date numbers in weighted on base average. 

Temperatures in the low to mid 70's are pretty moderate and the wind is blowing sideways for this one.

I like these teams to continue their recent under trends.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Kansas City Royals offense has been abysmal of late. How bad? Kansas City has scored a grand total of 5 runs in their last six games! Kansas City has been second to worst in the majors in wOBA in the last 30 days. Only the White Sox have been worse on offense. That's some bad company to be in.

The Washington Nationals offense has been struggling as well. The Nationals have scored one run or fewer in six of their last eight games. This is an offense that just isn't stringing together good at bats.

Doug Eddings is the home plate umpire for this game. Eddings is arguably the best under umpire in baseball. He is calling the highest percentage of strikes of any umpire in the majors this year. Long term he has done this year after year. Eddings has had a high strikeout/walk ratio consistently year after year.

Herz has a 3.78 ERA at home this year and his performance since the break has been very good. Michael Lorenzen has been solid this year for the Royals as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Braves ML* The Atlanta Braves are in a must win territory at home against the New York Mets. Spencer Schwellenbach starts for the Braves in this one, and he has been excellent in the second half of the season. Schwellenbach has a 3.61 ERA for the year, but it is 3.03 in the second half of the season. Louis Severino has been pretty good this year as well, but he’s been much better at home than on the road. Severino has a 4.80 ERA on the road, and he has pitched slightly worse in the second half of the season. 

The Braves are certainly banged up offensively, but they still have a line up with several hitters who have a good history against Severino. If the Braves want to have any shot to reach the playoffs, this is the biggest game of their season thus far. 

Take Atlanta. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Boston Red Sox host the Minnesota Twins at Fenway Park on Friday night. The weather here is interesting with a temperature of just 61 degrees when this game gets started. There is a big system just off the coast that has led to a lot of wind and rain in and near Boston. The forecast for Friday night calls for winds of about 15 mph blowing straight in at Fenway. Cool temperatures and wind blowing in to that extent is a big help for an under.

Minnesota starts David Festa here. He has good stuff, but has been inconsistent this year. He does sometimes give up the big inning. 

Richard Fitts makes his third start for the Red Sox here. He has allowed no runs in each of his first two starts. 

This is a big game for both teams with the Twins in a Wild Card spot and the Red Sox still within reach if they get red hot right now. Both teams will use their bullpen aggressively in this important of a game. 

With a relatively high total and this weather- I'm on the under here. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Guardians have seen six straight games stay under this total. The Guardians offense is below average against right handed pitching, but they have a great pitching staff and the best bullpen in the majors. Cleveland is a dangerous team in the playoffs because of their ability to shut the opposition down.

Bailey Ober has been throwing the ball really well for the Twins. Ober has a 3.90 ERA on the year and a 3.21 expected ERA. He has a 3.42 ERA in his last 12 starts. He ranks in the top ten percent of all pitchers in baseball in chase rate, so he is getting batters to swing at a lot of tough pitches outside the zone.

Tanner Bibee has a 3.60 ERA and a 3.65 FIP on the season. He has elite breaking stuff and he does a good job limiting walks.

Ober and Bibee have fantastic numbers against the opposition in this game. Ober has a .253 weighted on base average allowed in 84 plate appearances against this Guardians lineup. Bibee has a .269 weighted on base average allowed in 94 plate appearances against this Twins lineup.

This is a crucial game for both teams so I expect all the best bullpen arms to be available.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Guardians are 21st and the Minnesota Twins are 24th in the majors in weighted on base average in the last 30 days. These two offenses have struggled quite a bit coming down the stretch.

The Guardians still have the best bullpen in baseball. That is a great weapon for them to have in key games for the last few innings. Matthew Boyd starts here too, and he has allowed one earned run or fewer in all but one of his starts for the Tribe this year (6 starts). Boyd has done his very best work at home with a 1.56 ERA and a .171 wOBA allowed.

Pablo Lopez struggled in the first half of the season, but Lopez has a 1.93 ERA since the All Star Break. 

Both of these teams have some key bats banged up right now and that has hurt their lineup depth quite a bit.

This is a pitcher friendly park overall, especially with more moderate temperatures and winds blowing in like we will see on Monday night.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Miami Marlins have been hitting right handed pitching pretty well lately, but they are still struggling mightily against lefties. They are second to last in the majors in weighted on base average against left handed pitching this year. 

D.J. Herz has a 2.77 ERA and a 2.92 FIP in his last eight starts. He has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in all but one of those starts. Herz has a great 11.08 strikeouts per nine innings rate and he has good control. 

Edward Cabrera started the season slowly for the Marlins, but he has pitched well of late. Cabrera has a 3.13 ERA in 54 and 2/3 innings pitched in the second half of this season. Cabrera has a 2.95 ERA in his last seven starts.

The Washington bullpen is a major league average. The Marlins bullpen is a top six or eight bullpen in the majors.

Reyburn is the home plate umpire here and he is a solid under umpire. The under is 17-9 in his games behind the plate this year.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Bobby Miller starts here for the Los Angeles Dodgers. Miller has a 7.79 ERA and a 6.80 FIP on the season. Miller has allowed 8 home runs in his last four starts. He also walks a lot of batters.

Jordan Wicks is a decent young pitcher, but he is up against a really good Dodgers lineup here. Wicks has a .301 weighted on base average allowed at home and a .327 wOBA allowed on the road. 

The Dodgers and Cubs both have deep offenses who have been hot of late. They are both top six in the majors in wOBA in the last 30 days. The Cubs have made a nice little run to be at least in the running the NL Wild Card. The Dodgers have gotten healthier and are a top two or three offense in all of baseball.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Chicago Cubs and Los Angeles Dodgers are both in the top five in the majors in weighted on base average in both the last 30 days and last 14 days. These are two deep offenses who don't have many easy outs in the lineup. 

The Cubs struggled offensively against the Yankees in this past series, but they have a much more favorable matchup here. Walker Buehler has come back from a major injury and looked nothing like he did before. Buehler has a 5.67 ERA and his FIP is even worse at 5.98. Buehler has a career low strikeout rate this year and a career high walk rate. He is also giving up loads of home runs. Buehler is giving up 2.17 home runs per nine innings. 

Kyle Hendricks is having a major down season for the Chicago Cubs too. Hendricks has a 6.60 ERA, but his road ERA is 7.89. The Dodgers lineup has smashed him in the past too. This Dodgers lineup has a .354 weighted on base average against Hendricks. Like Buehler, Hendricks has a career high walk rate and a career high home runs allowed rate. 

Dodger Stadium is second in MLB park factors in home runs. Both pitchers allow the long ball at a very high rate, and both teams have a bunch of power.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Los Angeles Dodgers have a top three offense in baseball. They have Mookie Betts back healthy in the fold and that gives them a fearsome top four in the lineup of Ohtani, Betts, Freeman, and Hernandez. 

Griffin Canning is a below average pitcher. He has a 5.19 ERA and a 5.17 FIP on the season. Canning has a terrible history in his small sample size against the Dodgers too. He's allowed 4 home runs and 10 extra base hits in 43 at bats. Hernandez has 4 hits in 6 at bats against him.

Bobby Miller has a 7.25 ERA and a 6.42 FIP on the season. He has an 11.12 ERA on the road. Miller is bottom one percent in all pitchers in baseball in exit velocity allowed. He's not fooling anybody.

Adrian Johnson is a hitter friendly umpire, and he could make a difference in this game.

Both the Angels and Dodgers bullpens rank in the bottom half of the majors in FIP and SIERA over the last 30 days. The Angels dominant reliever Ben Joyce has pitched in three straight games so he might not be called upon in this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Oakland Athletics offense has been streaky this year, but they have a lot of youngsters who have really been great in the second half of the season. Lawrence Butler has been as hot as anyone in the majors of late. Butler is a great table setter. Brent Rooker has been consistently excellent all year. Shea Langaliers has heated up of late, and he has a bunch of power. 

Oakland is 8th in the majors in weighted on base average in the second half of the season. They are 10th in wOBA in the last 14 days. Luis Castillo has an ERA over 4.5 in his last six starts. He has been giving up far too many long balls. Castillo has poor numbers in a small sample size against this Oakland lineup too.

J.T. Ginn doesn't have very good secondary stuff. The Seattle Mariners offense has gotten a bit healthier of late, and it has started to show on the scoreboard. I think Ginn could struggle especially against the top four in this Seattle order. 

The bullpens here have been no better than mediocre of late. Manny Gonzalez has a low strikeout/walk ratio and he is a helpful umpire for an over. This is a low number. 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Atlanta Braves offense deserves a ton of credit for hanging in there as well as possible considering the massive amount of injuries they have had during the season. Lately, they have multiple key bats out of the lineup every day. Ozuna and Olson are really the only two primary guys they have healthy left in the middle of the order. The offense is still decent, but they are nothing like they were when healthy at the start of the year.

Spencer Schwellenbach has been dealing for the Braves. He has a sparkling 2.48 ERA and a 2.07 FIP in his last six starts. He has 53 strikeouts in those six starts compared to only eight walks. 

Aaron Nola has been much better when pitching at home in his career, and that has been the case again this season. Nola has pitched shutouts in his last two starts at home. 

The temperatures have moderated in Philadelphia and this one should see numbers in only the mid 70's so the ball shouldn't carry quite as much.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Chicago Cubs have scored 59 runs in their last six contests. The Cubs offense underachieved much of this season, but they are on fire of late. It's a deep lineup with plenty of power and speed. They are definitely up against a great pitcher in Paul Skenes here, but I think they can make him work and get to the bullpen quicker than most teams have. The Pirates bullpen has been very weak this year. Skenes has been a little bit wild in recent starts too.

Kyle Hendricks is far past his prime. Hendricks has a 7.16 ERA on the road this year. He isn't getting hardly any swings and misses. Hendricks has a terrible .355 weighted on base average against this Pirates lineup. The Pirates have 32 runs in their last five games. 

The over is 86-54 in Edwin Moscoso's games behind home plate. He is one of the best over umpires in the majors. He has proven slow to ring up batters when they have a two strike count.

The weather is helpful here. A temperature of 94 degrees during this one and winds blowing out toward center field at about 7 mph.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Arizona Diamondbacks offense has been absolutely on fire of late. Even without star Ketel Marte, this DBacks lineup has been hitting the ball extremely well. Guys like Perdomo, Suarez, Gurriel, and Carroll have really been seeing the ball very well. 

Arizona is third in the majors in weighted on base average in the last two weeks. The Diamondbacks haven't benefited from any luck in that time either. They have a .290 batting average on balls in play. In the last two weeks, the New York Mets are sixth in wOBA. The Mets have quite a few guys who hit left handed pitching well.

For the season overall, the Mets are fourth in wOBA against lefties. The Diamondbacks are third in wOBA against lefties. 

Chase Field is a hitter friendly park. Sean Manaea and Eduardo Rodriguez are both decent lefties, but at this point in their career neither of them are overpowering. I think there will be traffic on the bases for both teams. 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The weather in Kansas City stands out on Sunday afternoon. A high temperature of 100 degrees and winds blowing straight out at Kaufman Stadium at 15 mph sustained with gusts of 25 mph. 

Kaufman Stadium ranks in the top 5 hitter friendly ballparks in the majors. With conditions like this it becomes a massive plus for the hitters. The over has been extremely good at Kaufman Stadium on very hot days, and in this case we have heavy winds blowing out as well.

Kolby Allard starts here for the Phillies and he usually doesn't go very deep in the game. He is shaky at best, and he is up against a Kansas City lineup that is second in the majors in weighted on base average in the last 14 days. Kansas City is also top five in the majors in wOBA at home.

The Royals have seen 3 of their last 4 games finish with 11 runs or more.

The Phillies have a deep lineup. Seth Lugo has an ERA over 5 in his last five starts. Philadelphia certainly has the power hitters to take advantage of the conditions in this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The San Francisco Giants start Blake Snell here. No pitcher in the majors has been throwing the ball as well as him of late. Snell has a sparkling 1.05 ERA and a 1.30 FIP in his last five starts. He has 55 strikeouts in his last five starts. 

The Seattle Mariners have George Kirby on the mound in this one. Kirby had one terrible start, but in his last 15 starts he has a great 2.75 ERA and a 2.76 FIP. Kirby is a strike thrower to the max with a 1.32 walks rate per nine innings. 

Seattle and San Francisco both rank in the bottom five offenses in the majors in the last 14 days in weighted on base average. These two offenses are up against excellent pitchers here. 

Seattle strikes out at the highest rate of anyone in the majors. Snell should rack up the strikeouts here.

Tripp Gibson is a solid under umpire who should help give both pitchers the corners in this one.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Guardians have scored 1 run or fewer in four of their last five games. The Guardians are second to last in the majors in weighted on base average in the majors in the last 14 days. 

The Texas Rangers have scored two runs or fewer in five of their last seven games. They have underachieved on offense all year. 

Tanner Bibee has an ERA under 2 in his last five games. Bibee now has a 2.36 ERA in the second half of the season in his career. Bibee has allowed just a .241 wOBA to the Texas Rangers lineup. 

Nate Eovaldi has a .242 wOBA allowed against the Cleveland lineup. Eovaldi is a solid pitcher who is up against an offense in a funk right now.

The Guardians have the best bullpen in baseball which is a plus for this bet especially with them favored in this contest.

The weather in Cleveland is mild now and the slight breeze will be blowing in during the game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Tampa Bay Rays have scored 3 runs or fewer in 10 of their last 15 games. Tampa Bay is dead last in the majors in weighted on base average in the last 14 days. 

The Oakland A's have scored 3 runs or fewer in 11 of their last 15 games. In 9 of those 15 games they have scored 2 runs or fewer. 

Both Tampa Bay and Oakland rank in the top 12 in the majors in weighted on base average against left handed pitching. They rank 28th and 20th in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching though. They are both up agianst right handed pitchers in this one.

Ryan Pepiot has had a very solid season. He has a 3.69 ERA and a 3.73 FIP. He has allowed just one earned run in his last three starts combined. 

Mitch Spence has a 4.64 ERA and a 4.38 FIP on the season. Spence has a 3.86 ERA when pitching in Oakland this season. He has allowed two runs or fewer in four of his last five starts.

Tampa Bay has the best bullpen ERA in the majors in the last 30 days. Oakland's bullpen is a major strength as well.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Arizona Diamondbacks got some bad news when Ketel Marte went on the injured list. Marte is the leader for this team, and he's been their most consistent hitter. 

The Miami Marlins have heated up a bit against right handed pitching, but they have been awful against left handed pitching. They are second to last in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties (only the White Sox have been worse and it is very close between those two). 

Eduardo Rodriguez is a pretty decent left handed pitcher who has just two starts this year. He had a bad first outing, but was much better in his second outing. 

Edward Cabrera has been hit hard on the road, but he has been good at home this season. He has great swing and miss stuff, and his potential is very. 

Doug Eddings is the home plate umpire here and he is one of the best under umpires in baseball. His strikes called rate and strikeout/walk ratios have been consistently very pitcher friendly. That should help both pitchers here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Blake Snell has been nearly unhittable of late. Since Snell came back from the injured list on July 9, he has an ERA of 0.99 in 45 and 1/3 innings pitched. He has 60 strikeouts in that span as well. In five of his seven outings during this streak, Snell has allowed no runs. He's been the most dominant pitcher in baseball of late. 

JP Sears has a 2.91 ERA in his last seven outings. Sears has only eight walks in those last seven outings, and his offspeed pitch has really been bothering opposing hitters.

The Giants have scored 3 runs or fewer in six of their last eight games. The A's have scored 2 runs or fewer in 7 of their last 12 games. 

The bullpens are well rested in general and I like this one to stay low scoring. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* We have two starting pitchers who have a high strikeout rate this year. They are inducing swings and misses. The opposition strikes out a lot as well so it is a matchup that could work out well for the starters.

Bido has been great in three of his last four starts despite facing good competition. Birdsong is a pretty highly touted youngster who has been up and down this year. 

This is still one of the best pitcher's park in the majors. Both bullpen are in the top half of the league.

These teams had a day off yesterday and the back end dominant bullpen guys should be saved up and ready for this one.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Phillies -1.5* The Washington Nationals will start Patrick Corbin on Friday in Philadelphia. Patrick Corbin is far past his prime. He has a 7.07 ERA in his last eight starts. Corbin ranks in the bottom 3% of all pitchers in baseball in hard hit percentage allowed so far this season according to Baseball Savant. A guy who was once a high strikeout guy, his strikeout rate now is in the bottom 11% of all pitchers. 

Corbin's history against this Phillies lineup is awful. In 196 plate appearances, Corbin has a .395 weighted on base average allowed. Corbin has a 1.664 WHIP when pitching in Philadelphia and a 6.50 ERA. 

The Phillies are mediocre against right handed pitching, but they are first in the majors in weighted on base average against left handed pitching. Corbin is one of the worst left handed starters in the majors. I am trusting the Phillies to score plenty of runs here. 

On the other side, Washington traded away their best hitter at the deadline (Lane Thomas). Aaron Nola has a .173 batting average and .188 wOBA allowed against this Nationals lineup in his career.  Nola can certainly create swings and misses and this Nationals lineup is young and aggressive. 

I'll take Phillies -1.5 here. 

*3 Star Play Over* Walker Buehler returns from the injured list to start in this one for the Dodgers. Buehler had a 5.84 ERA and a 6.07 FIP in his eight starts prior to being on the injured list. Buehler made three rehab starts. In those 3 rehab starts in Triple A, Buehler gave up nine runs in 12 and 2/3 innings and allowed 16 hits. 

Frankie Montas has a 5.10 ERA and a 4.92 FIP on the season. He has a low swinging strikes rate, and he walks far too many batters. Montas is also allowing a lot of home runs. 

The Dodgers lineup is the best in the National League with Mookie Betts healthy again. The top four in this lineup is a gauntlet that even great pitchers should struggle to get through. 

The Brewers lineup has been very good in recent weeks. While Buehler has the upside potential, he has really struggled with command this season.

David Rackley is a clear over umpire with a tighter strike zone than most. That should help the hitters here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* A pitching matchup of Stone vs. Rea with a total below a key number and two strong offenses has me on the over in this one. 

The Milwaukee Brewers are averaging 6.3 runs per game in their last ten games. The Brewers have some young talent that has really sparked the offensive output in the last few weeks. Jackson Chourio is at the top of that list.

The LA Dodgers are averaging 5.3 runs per game in their last ten games. They just got Mookie Betts back from injury yesterday and he immediately homered. The Dodgers offense is already very good and adding a superstar right near the top of the lineup will help a lot.

Gavin Stone has potential, but he is struggling right now. Stone has a 6.29 ERA and a 6.10 FIP in his last five starts. Colin Rea is due for regression with an unsustainable 80% strand rate on the season.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Minnesota Twins start David Festa in this one. He has been one of the highest ranked pitching prospects in baseball, and he is coming off his best start of his career. Festa has a 1.88 ERA in his last three starts. He has 22 strikeouts in his last 14 innings pitched. He has been a very high strikeout guy during his time in the minors as well.

The Cleveland Guardians offense has hit the skids of late. They are second to last in the majors in weighted on base average in the last 30 days. The only team who has been worse offensively during that time has been the Chicago White Sox. 

Tanner Bibee has been very good the Guardians this year. He has a 3.48 ERA and a 3.39 FIP on the season. 

The Guardians have the best bullpen in baseball, and the Twins have a top 6 or 8 bullpen in the majors too. Neither pitcher is expected to go too deep into the game here, but the bullpens have been excellent.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The San Diego Padres have become one of the best offenses in baseball. The Padres are top five in the majors in wOBA and wins created against right handed pitching. They are top five in the league in both those categories over the last 30 days as well. They are top five in the league in away from home offensive performance. The Padres strike out at the lowest rate of any team in the majors against right handed pitching.

The Miami Marlins still aren't a great offense by any means, but since going young this offense has improved a lot. Edwards and Bride have provided a real spark for the team. Instead of being at the bottom of the barrel in offensive categories, they have been about league average of late. 

Waldron has allowed 3 runs or more in five of his last seven starts. Munoz has a 5.68 ERA and a horrible 7.04 FIP on the season. He has been getting crushed.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Philadelphia Phillies are first in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. The Arizona Diamondbacks are second in the majors in wOBA against. Both of them will be up against a lefty today. 

Jordan Montgomery has drastic splits this year. He has a 4.26 ERA on the road with a .309 wOBA allowed. At home, he has a terrible 8.39 ERA and a .429 wOBA allowed.

In 10 of the Diamondbacks last 11 games they have scored at least 5 runs. Arizona is first in the majors in weighted on base average in the last 14 days. This offense is red hot right now. 

The Phillies have scored 24 runs in their last four games. This is a lineup that is filled with guys who crush left handed pitching.

On the whole, Chase Field is still a hitter friendly park. I like both offenses to put up quite a few runs today.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Oakland -1.5* The Chicago White Sox have broken their 21 game losing streak! Their record has "improved" to 28 wins and 88 losses. 

Oakland is 28-30 at home this year, and the A's are actually 17-12 in their last 29 games overall. Their youngsters have come up and hit the ball very well. Brent Rooker has been fantastic. Lawrence Butler has been a nice spark plug. Shea Langaliers has shown some pop as well.

Joey Estes has a 2.25 ERA in 40 innings pitched at home this year. Estes has a stellar .239 weighted on base average allowed at home. He now takes on a White Sox team that is easily last in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching.

Davis Martin is recovering from a major injury and he hasn't thrown 4 innings in either of his first two outings. The White Sox bullpen has an ERA over 7 in the last 30 days. The White Sox bullpen is likely to throw a lot of innings in this game.

The Oakland bullpen is a top ten bullpen which gives them a huge advantage.

Take Oakland -1.5. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Baltimore Orioles are one of the top three offenses in baseball. They have a really deep lineup full of guys who can hit for power. Baltimore's pitching has really dropped off in the last few weeks. In the last 30 days, Baltimore's bullpen ERA is 4.5, which is 21st in the majors. 

The Orioles have seen 12 of their last 13 games go over this posted total. Baltimore is consistently having very high scoring games both because of their elite offense and their pitching being mediocre of late.

The Toronto Blue Jays have been better hitting in the last few weeks. They are 14th in weighted on base average in the majors in the last two weeks. The Blue Jays have seen 10 of their last 13 games go over this posted total.

Grayson Rodriguez has a .409 wOBA allowed against this Blue Jays lineup. George Springer and Vlad Guerrero Jr. in particular have hit him hard. 

Chris Bassitt has a .454 wOBA allowed against this Orioles lineup. Gunnar Hunderson has 2 home runs against him in just 7 plate appearances. 

I think this total is set too low.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Paul Skenes is arguably the most dominant starting pitcher in baseball already. Skenes has allowed 2 runs or less in each of his last 12 starts. He has a 1.64 ERA and a 2.52 FIP. He has one of the highest ground ball rates in all of baseball. Because of the movement on his pitches, hitters are chasing at a very high rate.

Arizona has been hitting the ball well, but Skenes has quieted even the best lineups and I'm counting on him to do it again here.

The Pittsburgh Pirates are decent offensively against lefties, but they are second worst in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. The Pirates are also bottom four in the majors in wOBA at home. 

Ryne Nelson has a 2.41 ERA and a 2.47 FIP in his last six outings. Nelson has allowed just one home run in his last 37 innings pitched. He has been far better on the road than at home in his career.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Toronto Blue Jays have been hitting much better of late. They underachieved on offense for a long time this season. They have finally gotten it going. 

The New York Yankees are first in the majors in weighted on base average overall and first in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching. 

In the Yankees last eight games, all eight of those games have finished with at least ten total runs. In the Blue Jays last nine games, eight of those have finished with ten runs or more.

Carlos Rodon has a 6.88 ERA and a 6.13 FIP in his last seven starts. Rodon is allowing a whopping 3.06 homers per nine innings in this stretch.

Jose Berrios has a 5.82 ERA and a 5.98 FIP in his last seven starts. Berrios has a .360 wOBA allowed against this Yankees lineup so they have really hit him hard.

The weather is favorable with a heat index of about 100 degrees and a very slight breeze blowing out.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Two of the best young left handed pitchers in the game start in Detroit on Friday night. It's Cole Ragans starting for the Royals and Tarik Skubal starting for the Tigers.

Cole Ragans has pitched significantly better on the road than at home this year. Tarik Skubal has been tremendous at home this year. Skubal has a 1.95 ERA and a ridiculous low .219 weighted on base average allowed at home. 

The Kansas City Royals offense is fifth in the majors in wOBA at home, but they are 25th in wOBA on the road. 

Both of these teams have been below average against left handed pitching, and they are up against really good lefties here.

Skubal has struggled pitching in KC, but when facing the Royals at home he has been excellent. 

Ragans has allowed just 1 hit in 23 at bats against the Tigers lineup he is expected to face on Friday night.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Mariners ML* The Seattle Mariners start George Kirby in this one. He's one of the most underrated starting pitchers in all of baseball. Kirby has the second highest WAR (wins above replacement) of any starting pitcher in baseball this year. 

Kirby has the best control in baseball. He is walking less than one batter per nine innings. He has a 3.03 ERA and a 2.69 FIP on the season. In his last 10 starts, Kirby has a 1.88 ERA and a 1.95 FIP. 

Bryan Bello starts for the Red Sox and he has several things going against him here. Bello has been much worse in his career pitching in day games. Bello has a 5.84 ERA and a 1.672 WHIP in day games in his career. He also has been much worse in the second half of the season than the first half in his career. This Mariners lineup has a .419 weighted on base average against him in 56 plate appearances.

The Boston Red Sox bullpen has been awful of late. Boston's bullpen has an 8.51 ERA in the last 14 days. 

The Mariners have the huge starting pitching and bullpen advantage here.

Take Seattle. 

*3 Star Play on Royals -1.5* The Chicago White Sox have lost 15 games in a row. The White Sox are in the process of trading away some of their better players, so this team is actually getting worse right now. Chicago is dead last by a mile in the all the major offensive categories in the last month. The White Sox have a bottom five bullpen. 

The Kansas City Royals stole one from Chicago last night when Bobby Witt Jr. hit a grand slam to bring the Royals back from behind to win 8-5.

The White Sox have now lost their last four games all by at least three runs. 

Michael Wacha will be the starter for the Royals in this one. Wacha has amazing numbers against this White Sox lineup. In 105 plate appearances, Wacha has allowed just a .185 weighted on base average against this White Sox lineup. The White Sox have a terrible .141 average against Wacha. 

The White Sox are in terrible shape right now, and with this matchup I'm going to side with KC to take care of business again here.

Take Kansas City -1.5. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Miami Marlins offense has been better of late, but I'm not buying that they are going to be able to keep it up. Miami traded away Jazz Chisholm Jr. who had the best weighted on base average on the team before he was traded. The Marlins have a .336 batting average on balls in play in the last 14 days. That is unsustainable and they should come back down to earth soon. For the season as a whole, Miami is third worst in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching.

The Milwaukee Brewers have scored a combined 10 runs in their last five games. Milwaukee is a bit banged up and they have really struggled of late. Tobias Myers will try to help them stop their losing streak in this one. Myers has a 3.14 ERA and a 3.95 expected ERA. 

Kyle Tyler has a 3.92 ERA and a 3.92 FIP on the season. He doesn't pitch deep into the game, but that's actually a good thing in this case. The Miami Marlins bullpen is the strength of their team. It is a top five bullpen in the majors. 

Phil Cuzzi is the home plate umpire here. In my umpire database of 91 home plate umpires, Cuzzi has called the third highest percentage of strikes in the last five years. Cuzzi consistently has a very high strikeout/walk ratio. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Baltimore Orioles have a very good offense, but several of their key players have been in a funk of late. Baseball is a game of momentum and the Orioles offense is just 15th best in weighted on base average in the last month. 

Michael King starts for San Diego here, and he has been amazing in the last couple months. King has a 2.52 ERA and a 2.38 FIP in his last 14 starts. In King's last 8 starts, he has a 2.40 ERA and a sparkling 1.90 FIP. He is striking out 11.40 batters per nine innings during that time.

Dean Kremer starts for the Orioles here. Kremer has historically been much better in the second half of the season than the first. San Diego is exactly middle of the pack in the last 30 and 14 days on offense. 

Ryan Blakeney is the umpire here, and he is a strike caller. He carries a high strikeout/walk ratio over his career.

This one is at the key number of 9, and I'm taking the under here.

*3 Star Play Under* The Chicago White Sox have the worst offense in the majors in the last month, and it isn't close. Chicago also has the worst offense in the majors against right handed pitching this season. 

The White Sox have scored 2 runs or fewer in six of their last seven games. They have also scored 3 runs or fewer in 11 of their last 12 games (the other game they scored just 4 runs). 

The Seattle Mariners offense has struggled badly of late. Seattle has scored 2 runs or fewer in seven of their last eight games. 

George Kirby is a really good right handed pitcher. He has allowed 2 runs or fewer in nine of his last ten starts. Kirby has a 3.20 ERA and a 2.74 FIP on the season. 

Drew Thorpe has a lot of upside and he has allowed 2 runs or fewer in five straight starts.

The weather in Chicago calls for moderate temperatures and winds blowing in about 7 mph during this game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Guardians offense has cooled off drastically of late. Cleveland started the year on fire offensively, but in both the last 14 days and 30 days the Guardians have been a bottom 8 offense in the majors. 

Detroit has hit the ball better of late, but it has been helped by a really high batting average on balls in play. This is still a below average Tigers offense on the whole. 

Jack Flaherty is having a great bounce back season. Flaherty has a 3.13 ERA along with a 3.16 FIP and a 2.48 xFIP on the season. He is racking up the strikeouts. He is striking out 11.35 batters per nine innings on the season. He is walking only 1.52 batters per nine innings.

Tanner Bibee starts for the Guardians, and he has great swing and miss stuff. He is striking out 10.25 batters per nine innings. The Tigers have a lot of high strikeout guys in their lineup.

Phil Cuzzi is the home plate umpire here. Cuzzi has been one of the most consistent high strikeout/walk ratio umpires and a strong under umpire overall for many years. 

Six of the last eight Cleveland games have stayed under this low total.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Garrett Crochet has been one of the best left handed starting pitchers in baseball this year. Crochet has a 3.02 ERA with a 2.43 expected ERA and a 2.35 FIP. In his last 14 starts, Crochet has a 1.74 ERA and a 1.68 FIP. He hasn't allowed more than 3 runs in any of those starts.

The Texas Rangers lineup is just 23rd in the majors in weighted on base average. I think Crochet is a really tough matchup for them. Crochet has great swing and miss stuff.

Jon Gray has been good this year. Gray has a 3.96 ERA and a 3.46 FIP. In his career, Gray has a fantastic .213 weighted on base average against this White Sox lineup. The White Sox are dead last in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching, and it isn't even close. In their last 9 games, the White Sox have topped 3 runs only once (that time was only 4 runs too), so they come into this one ice cold.

Vic Carapazza is 12-8 to the under this year and his strikeout/walk ratio is high. He should help the pitchers as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Colorado Rockies offense is the weakest it has been in many years. Coors Field is still absolutely a hitter friendly park, but many of the Rockies games have been low scoring, especially of late. 

In the Rockies last 9 home games, 8 of the 9 have stayed under this total. The one that went over the total finished at 11 total runs. In fact, 7 of the 9 games finished with 7 runs or fewer. 

Austin Gomber has better numbers at home this year than he has on the road. While the Red Sox are a good offense, they are far better against right handed pitching. The Red Sox are 3rd in weighted on base average against righties. They are 17th in the majors in wOBA against lefties.

Tanner Houck has been tremendous this year for the Red Sox. Houck has a superb 2.54 ERA and a 2.67 FIP. 

The temperature here should be mild in the upper 70's with a wind blowing in from right field at about 8 mph.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Chicago White Sox rank last in both weighted on base average against right handed pitching and wOBA in the last 30 days. The White Sox offense is really bad however you look at it. This team gets held to a very low number very often.

Seth Lugo has been solid all season. Lugo has a 2.48 ERA and a 3.32 FIP on the season. He has allowed no runs in his last 12 innings pitched at home. 

Kansas City is 25th in wOBA in the last 30 days. The Royals offense is just 19th in wOBA against right handed pitching too. Drew Thorpe was excellent in the minors. He struck out 182 batters last year and had a 1.35 ERA in AA earlier this year. Thorpe has a very high upside. 

The wind is expected to be blowing in at about 7 or 8 mph during the game. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Kansas City Royals start Brady Singer in this one. Singer has a solid 3.20 ERA and a 4.01 FIP on the season. In Singer's last five starts he has a 2.67 ERA and a 3.23 FIP. Singer has had drastic home/road splits the last couple years too. Singer has an ERA nearly a full run lower at home than on the road in his career. So far this year, Singer has a 2.72 ERA when pitching at home. Singer's weighted on base average allowed in the second half of the season has been .303 compared to .332 in the first half. 

The Chicago White Sox are dead last in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitchers. This is a good matchup for Singer.

The Kansas City Royals are 27th in wOBA on offense in the last 30 days. The Royals aren't walking much at all, and they aren't hitting for much power either. 

Jonathan Cannon has a 4.41 ERA and a 4.18 FIP. The right hander had one ugly start in Detroit in June, but overall he has been better in his last few starts. 

The slight wind will be blowing in at about 6 or 7 mph during this game. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Washington Nationals host the Cincinnati Reds tonight to start off the second half of the MLB season. 

Patrick Corbin is on the mound for the Nationals. Corbin was once a very good starting pitcher, but that was a long time ago. Corbin is now one of the worst left handed starters in baseball. Corbin has a 5.57 ERA and a 6.29 expected ERA for the season as a whole. The Cincinnati Reds are much better against lefties than righties too. The Reds lineup has smashed Corbin in the past. They have a whopping .515 weighted on base average against Corbin. 

Frankie Montas starts for the Reds here. Montas has a 4.38 ERA and a 4.85 expected ERA on the year. The Nationals are bad against lefties, but are league average against right handed pitching. The youngsters in the Nationals lineup have been good of late.

The weather here calls for mid 80's and a slight wind blowing out.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Texas Rangers offense has underwhelmed for much of the year, but they have finally woken up of late. In the last 14 days, Texas ranks second in the majors in weighted on base average. They have been hitting for power at a much higher rate of late. 

The Houston Astros have been a bit banged up, but Yordan Alvarez was back in the lineup on Friday night and that's a big key. Jose Altuve has been mashing of late too. Houston is sixth in the majors in wOBA in the last 14 days. 

Nathan Eovaldi is a good pitcher, but he has long had major problems getting the Houston Astros out. Eovaldi has a terrible .439 wOBA allowed against the Astros. Eovaldi has given up a whopping 12 home runs in 137 at bats against this Astros lineup. Yordan Alvarez is 11/17 with 3 doubles and 2 homers against him. Jose Altuve has 7 home runs in just 48 at bats against him.

Spencer Arrigheti walks far too many batters. He relies on getting a bunch of strikeouts. The Rangers rank among the six best teams in the majors in lowest strikeout rate. Arrigheti walks 5 batters per nine innings. 

Take the over in this one. 

*3 Star Play Over* There is heavy wind blowing out to center field in this one, and there is rain in the forecast on and off through the night. 

There is a good chance this game would be delayed at some point and there is some chance it would be canceled. If the game is played, I like the over here.

The bullpen is usually seen a whole lot more in rain delayed games. The Rockies bullpen has the worst ERA in the majors by a huge margin. The Mets have the 12th worst bullpen ERA too.

The Mets offense has been red hot in the last few weeks. Tanner Gordon had poor numbers in the minors and I doubt he is successful right away in the majors. The Rockies have major splits vs. righty/lefty. Colorado is much better against left handed pitching and they are up against a lefty here.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The New York Yankees offense is first in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. Shane Baz doesn't have much experience in the big leagues. He has some good stuff, but he is prone to giving up a big inning here and there.

Tampa Bay is bottom five in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching, but they are top ten in the majors in wOBA against left handed pitching. Nestor Cortes has struggled mightily against this Rays lineup. In 126 plate appearances, the Rays lineup has an impressive .382 wOBA against Cortes. 

Edwin Moscoso is the home plate umpire here. Out of 91 umpires in my umpire database, Moscoso is dead last in percentage of pitches called a strike in the last five years. Moscoso also has the single lowest strikeout/walk ratio of any umpire during that time. Not surprisingly, the over is 84-50 in his 134 games behind home plate.

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The New York Mets offense has been on fire in recent weeks. Now, they go up against Patrick Corbin. The current Mets lineup has a really impressive .389 weighted on base average against Corbin. Pete Alonso leads the way with 5 career homers against Corbin.

Corbin was once a very good pitcher,  but that is no longer the case. Corbin is a subpar lefty with an ERA over 5. He gives up very hard contact, and he no longer generates the swings and misses that he did several years ago. The Mets are fourth in the majors in wOBA against lefties this year. This is a good matchup for the Mets offense.

Luis Severino is a really streaky pitcher. Severino has been struggling of late. He has a 6.04 ERA and a 5.61 FIP in his last four starts. The Nationals lineup has been very weak against lefties, but they are 15th in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching. 

Carlos Torres is the home plate umpire in this game. In my umpire spreadsheet where I track all the umpires, Torres is top three in the majors in lowest percentage of pitches called a strike. He continually has a much lower than average strikeout/walk ratio. The over is 85-65 in his games behind home plate.

The wind here is a key as well. Sustained winds of 16 mph with gusts of 20-25 mph blowing out toward center field are expected for this game. The ball should be carrying very well.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Oakland Athletics offense has shown a lot of life lately. Oakland has been giving more of their young prospects a chance of late, and those guys have gone out and produced right away. Oakland has scored 41 runs in their last six games. The A's are top ten in weighted on base in the last 14 days despite having a low batted ball average. 

Joey Estes starts for Oakland here. Estes has been great when pitching at home, but on the road he has been atrocious. Estes has a 7.00 ERA and a .397 weighted on base average allowed on the road this season. 

The Boston offense is above average on the whole and the depth of the lineup is solid.

Brayan Bello has struggled at home with an ERA over 6 so far this year at Fenway.

The weather here calls for winds blowing out at about 10 mph. Fenway is a top 3 hitters park and with warm weather and winds blowing out it is even more that way.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Houston Astros and Minnesota Twins rank second and first respectively in weighted on base average in the last 14 days. Both of these offenses have been on fire of late. 

The Minnesota Twins have seen their last four games all finish with 11 total runs or more. The Houston Astros have seen six of their last eight games finish with 11 total runs or more. 

Spencer Arrigheti is walking more than five batters per nine innings. In his last four starts, Arrigheti has an 8.64 ERA and a 6.94 FIP. 

Simeon Woods-Richardson started the year well, but he has been slipping of late. In his last six starts, he has a 4.55 ERA and a 4.96 FIP. He has allowed six home runs in his last 31 innings. 

The weather here is a positive for runs as well. The temperature will be around 80 degrees with about 10 mph winds blowing out toward center.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Miami Marlins are easily worst in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. Miami has a brutal .265 wOBA against lefties and they are dead last in ISO (power), so this Marlins team is bad all around against lefties. 

The Chicago White Sox are dead last in the majors in wOBA against righties. The White Sox are a right handed heavy lineup, and they have consistently been dominated even by mediocre right handed pitching.

Garrett Crochet has been amazing for the lowly White Sox this year. Crochet has some of the best statistics of any lefty this year. In Crochet's last 12 starts, he has a sparkling 1.63 ERA and a 1.65 FIP. He has 12 walks and 101 strikeouts in those 12 starts. It's a very tough matchup for the Marlins hitters.

Yonny Chirinos has a solid 3.77 ERA and 3.92 FIP this year. Chirinos is actually backed by a pretty good bullpen in Miami too. 

This total is set low, but it is low for good reasons.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Detroit Tigers and Cincinnati Reds are 27th and 23rd in the majors in weighted on base average this year. Against right handed pitching, the Reds are 26th and the Tigers are 25th. 

The Reds have been held to zero or one run in 6 of their last 16 games. This offense is capable of going very quiet. If you look down the order, the Reds batting averages are very poor. It can be tough for them to string together hits.

The Tigers offense rates even a bit worse than the Reds for the season overall. This Tigers offense is young and not very good.

Reese Olson is a good young starter for the Tigers. Olson has a 3.32 ERA and an even more impressive 2.90 FIP on the season. He has been terrific in his last three starts.

Carson Spiers has a 3.13 ERA and a 2.68 FIP this season. He's not a great pitcher by any means, but he doesn't walk many guys and he doesn't give up many home runs.

The Reds bullpen is better than league average and the Tigers bullpen is league average.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play on Astros ML* The Houston Astros have finally heated up. The Astros are 8-2 in their last 10 games overall. Houston clearly has a very high upside. The Astros offense has finally started to click in recent weeks. 

Ronel Blanco has been solid for the Astros this year. He has allowed two runs or fewer in 11 of his 15 starts on the season.

Yusei Kikuchi is a streaky pitcher, and he has been bad of late. Kikuchi has a 7.12 ERA in his last seven starts overall. He has allowed five home runs in his last 11 innings pitched. He has also allowed four runs or more in five of those last seven starts. 

The current Astros lineup has blasted Kikuchi in the past. They have a .439 weighted on base average against Kikuchi in 101 plate appearances. With Kikuchi in poor form right now, I like this matchup for the Astros. 

The Blue Jays are below .500 even at home, and they are just 4-6 in their last 10 games. 

Take Houston. 

*3 Star Play on Mets ML* The New York Mets have been on fire offensively in the last month. They are first in the majors in weighted on base average in the last 30 days at a stunning .373 wOBA. The Nationals are 22nd in the majors in wOBA in the last 30 days at just .300. 

Washington has struggled badly this year against left handed pitching. The Nationals are in the bottom five in the majors in all major offensive categories against lefties. They are bottom three in most. 

The New York Mets are a top three offense against lefties. They have been smashing lefties in recent weeks.

We have a lefty starting for both teams in this one. Sean Manaea is at least a league average lefty and he might be a bit better than that. He has a 3.89 ERA and a 3.81 FIP on the season thus far. 

D.J. Herz has had one great showing and that was against the Miami Marlins who are hapless against left handed pitching. Herz has a couple big negatives against him. First, he walks far too many batters. Throughout his minor league career he carried very high walk rates. Second, he allows too many home runs. 

The Mets have been hot of late, and I trust their offense a lot more in this spot.

Take New York. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Philadelphia Phillies offense is slowed considerably by the loss of Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber. Both of these guys had been contributing in a big way of late. They are both on the injured list now. 

The Miami Marlins have the worst offense in baseball. Miami is bad against right handed pitching, but they are next level bad against left handed pitching. They are historically bad against the lefties. Ranger Suarez is one of the best left handed pitchers in baseball.

Suarez has a fantastic .250 weighted on base average allowed against the current Miami Marlins lineup. He has a 2.01 ERA on the season thus far this year.

The Phillies offense is no better than mediocre in their current state. Both bullpens are top ten in FIP allowed so far this year.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The New York Mets offense has been on fire of late. The Mets are averaging a whopping 6.65 runs per game over a large 20 game sample size in their last 20 games. The Mets have been elite agianst lefties all season. Framber Valdez is a quality lefty, but he hasn't been as overpowering this year as he has been in some past seasons. Valdez has a 3.68 ERA and his strikeout rate is down to just 7.03 strikeouts per nine innings. 

Houston's offense has been waking up in recent weeks. The Astros are still a really talented lineup, and most of the team has underachieved for the year overall thus far. Houston is up against Tylor Megill here. Megill has a 4.81 ERA on the season.

The wind is a key factor here too. The weather calls for winds blowing out to center field at 17 mph at the start of this game. The wind is expected to continue at 15 or 16 mph on average during the contest. Citi Field is a place where the weather has mattered more than the average stadium.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play on Seattle ML* The Seattle Mariners are back home, and they are 27-12 on the season at home. Seattle has one of the best bullpens in baseball. The Mariners also have a very underrated starting pitcher going in this one. Logan Gilbert has a 1.21 ERA in his last four starts. His FIP during that time is an impressive 2.25 as well. Gilbert has only walked one batter in that 4 game span, and he has 28 strikeouts. 

The Twins do have a good lineup, but Gilbert has been great against them in his career. The Twins roster has just a .246 batting average and a .298 weighted on base average against Gilbert. 

Bailey Ober starts for the Twins. Ober has a .340 weighted on base average allowed against the Mariners roster in his career. The Twins bullpen is a bit weaker than the Mariners bullpen too. 

Seattle has struggled against lefties, but they are pretty good against right handed pitching.

I like Gilbert and the bullpen to pitch well here.

Take Seattle. 

*3 Star Play Over* The San Diego Padres host the Washington Nationals in this final game of the series on Wednesday afternoon. 

San Diego has been on fire offensively of late. The Padres have scored 6 runs or more in five of their last six games. 

Washington has scored 6 runs or more in four of their last five games. Dylan Cease starts for the Padres. Cease is ultra talented, but he is very streaky. In his last five games, Cease has an ERA above six. 

D.J. Herz was amazing against Miami a couple starts ago, but they are an abysmal lineup (especially against lefties). The Padres have a deep lineup and should make it tough on him.

Edwin Moscoso is one of the best over umpires in the league. Moscoso is 10-5 to the over this year and the over is 73-43 in his last 116 behind the plate. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Baltimore Orioles are first in the majors in weighted on base average in the last 30 days. Baltimore's offense has had a couple down games in their last three games, but I expect a bounce back soon. This Orioles offense is deep and they have a ton of power.

Cleveland's offense has been one of the biggest surprises in baseball this year. Steven Kwan has been setting the table and Jose Ramirez and company have been knocking in a ton of runs. The Guardians are fifth in wOBA in the last 30 days. 

The Guardians have scored five runs or more in 7 of their last 8 games. Baltimore scored 35 runs in three games right before this very recent minor slump.

Logan Allen has been struggling badly this year. Cole Irvin is due for regression and his long term numbers show he is no better than a mediocre lefty.

The weather matters here too. The game time temperature will be about 90 degrees and the wind will be blowing out to center at about 10 mph. That's a big boost for the over.

Take the over in this one. 

*3 Star Play Under* Taking an under in a game played at Coors Field is never fun, but I'm going under this total.

Kyle Freeland has similar splits at home vs. on the road through his career. He is coming back from an injury, and he's up against a Nationals team that is bottom five in the majors against lefties.

Jake Irvin has been good this year. His walk rate has plummeted to 1.99 walks per nine innings and he has a 3.24 ERA on the season. The Rockies are a bottom five offense against righties.

Doug Eddings is the home plate umpire here and he is one of the very best under umpires in baseball. Eddings consistently has an extremely high strikes called rate and a high strikeout/walk ratio. For example, the MLB average so far this year is around 2.65 for a strikeout/walk ratio. Eddings has a 4.09 strikeout/walk ratio. Eddings is a very pitcher friendly umpire. Dating back to 2006, the under is 12-6 in Eddings 18 games behind home plate at Coors Field.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Phillies -1.5* The Philadelphia Phillies will start Wheeler in this one. He's one of the most underrated starting pitchers in baseball. Wheeler almost never has a blowup game where he gets crushed. He just had that very rare game in his last outing. That was against the red hot Orioles lineup though. 

Arizona's lineup is excellent against lefties, but only middle of the pack against righties. Wheeler has allowed only a .284 weighted on base average against this Diamondbacks roster in a large sample size of 143 plate appearances. 

Tommy Henry starts for the Diamondbacks. He's a subpar lefty up against a Phillies lineup that is 5th in the majors in wOBA against lefties. They just added Trea Turner back into the lineup. 

The Phillies have been a top eight bullpen in baseball. The Diamondbacks are a bottom six or seven bullpen.

Take Philadelphia -1.5. 

*3 Star Play Under* Quietly, Erick Fedde has been pitching extremely well this year. In his last  five starts, Fedde has a 3.07 ERA and a really impressive 2.29 FIP. He has allowed only one home run in his last five starts. 

Jack Flaherty has a 3.01 ERA and a 2.61 FIP on the season. Flaherty hasn't allowed a single run in his last three starts combined. He has two walks and 19 strikeouts in those three starts. 

The White Sox are dead last in the majors in weighted on base average. The Tigers are 24th. 

The Tigers have scored a grand total of 3 runs in their last four games. All four of those games have stayed under this low total.

The White Sox have scored 3 runs or fewer in seven of their last nine games. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Guardians have the best bullpen in baseball. They have the best bullpen ERA and the best bullpen FIP. It is no fluke. The Guardians have a very deep bullpen. Bibee starts for Cleveland here, and he has great strikeout stuff. He is averaging 10.39 strikeouts per nine innings so far this year. 

Woo starts for the Mariners. He has a 1.07 ERA and a 2.38 FIP. He is walking only 0.53 batters per nine innings. 

The Guardians have scored three runs or fewer in five of their last ten games. The Mariners have allowed three runs or fewer in five of their last seven games.

The home plate umpire for this one is Doug Eddings. He has the highest strikes called percentage of any umpire in the majors over the last five years. Eddings has a strikeout/walk ratio of higher than 4 this year. He is a very pitcher friendly umpire.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Padres and Phillies both have pretty good pitchers going in this one, but there are several factors pointing to the over here. 

The weather calls for temperatures in the upper 80's at the beginning of the game. The winds are expected to be blowing out toward center field at about 11-13 mph. The ball should carry very well in Philadelphia today. Long term trends show that this is a stadium where the winds matter a lot.

Both of these teams rank in the top eight in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching so far this year. 

The home plate umpire here is a big over umpire. Edwin Moscoso is a newer umpire, but he has consistently had a very low called strikes and strikeout/walk ratio. The over has cashed in better than 60% of his games so far.

Take the over in this one. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Miami Marlins are easily last in the majors in weighted on base average against left handed pitching. The Washington Nationals are second to last in the majors in wOBA against left handed pitching. 

Both teams start a lefty in this one. Jesus Luzardo is an inconsistent lefty. There is always some risk with him because he is occasionally hit hard, but his stuff is great and this Nationals lineup is very weak against lefties. Mitchell Parker is a youngster who is off to a solid start with the Nationals. He hasn't allowed more than 3 earned runs in a game all season long. He has a 3.21 ERA on the season.

The Marlins have scored three runs in their last three games. Miami is averaging 2.1 runs per game in their last 12 contests. 

The Marlins bullpen struggled early in the year, but they have been the strength of the team in recent weeks. The Nationals bullpen is middle of the pack, but that gives them an advantage over this Miami offense.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Detroit Tigers rank 26th in the majors in weighted on base average in the last 14 days. The Washington Nationals rank 23rd in wOBA in the last 14 days. These lineups aren't great to begin with, and they come into this one in poor form. 

Jake Irvin has made huge improvements this year. What has been the big key? Irvin is walking far less people than he was in previous seasons. Irvin averaged 4.02 walks per nine innings last year, but he is walking only 1.68 batters per nine innings this year. He has a 3.14 ERA and a 3.16 FIP on the season. 

Reese Olson has excellent stuff and the scouts loved him before he got up to the big leagues. He is coming off one of his worst starts as a big leaguer. I like his chances of bouncing back. Comerica Park is clearly a pitchers park and it is even more so when the wind is blowing in as it is expected to be during this game. 

The weather here calls for winds blowing in at about 8-10 mph at the start of this game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Both the LA Angels and the Arizona Diamondbacks are much stronger against left handed pitching as compared to right handed pitching. They are both up against a left handed starter here.

The Angels are second in the majors against lefties. The DBacks are top ten as well.

Jose Suarez is getting a rare start here for the Angels. Suarez has been hit around in the bullpen this year, and he has shown no signs of being a good starter in the past. 

Jordan Montgomery has a 8.46 ERA and a .444 wOBA allowed in his home starts this year. Montgomery comes into this game in poor form.

Both of the bullpens are problems and when the starters go out there should be plenty more scoring chances.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Cleveland Guardians offense has really hit left handed pitching well this year. They are tied for fifth in the majors in weighted on base average against left handed pitching. The Guardians are up against Trevor Rogers in this one. Rogers has been a decent amount worse when pitching at home throughout his career. He also has a 7.36 ERA and a 5.98 FIP in his last six starts. He is inconsistent and is capable of being hit hard.

Carlos Carrasco was once a good starting pitcher, but he is far past his prime and his numbers this year aren't good. Carrasco has a 6.97 ERA and a 5.88 FIP in his last six starts. He has allowed 2.32 home runs per nine innings in that six game span. 

The Marlins offense isn't good, but they are definitely much better against right handed pitching than left handed pitching.

Nate Tomlinson is the home plate umpire here, and the over is 30-15 in his last 45 games behind home plate.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Matt Waldron has been on fire of late. Waldron has a 1.84 ERA and a 1.91 FIP in his last five starts. The knuckleball has been working very well. With a knuckeballer you always worry some about stolen bases from the opposition, but the Diamondbacks are near the bottom of all of baseball in stolen bases. 

Ryne Nelson has been far better away from Chase Field in his young career. Nelson has very good splits on the road. The Padres offense has been inconsistent this year.

The Diamondbacks are fantastic against lefties, but they are subpar against right handed pitching.

Tripp Gibson is the home plate umpire for this game. In the last five years, the games he has been under center for have gone 78-61 to the under (56.1% unders). He has a high strikeout/walk ratio and has been consistently a pitcher friendly umpire.

Petco Park is still one of the better parks in the majors for pitchers too. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oakland A's host the Seattle Mariners in the series finale on Thursday afternoon. 

Both teams start pitchers who are in good form and have a good track record against their opponent in this one. Sears has allowed a .204 batting average against the Mariners, and this Seattle offense has really been slumping of late. Woo has allowed a .125 batting average against the A's in a smaller sample size.

Sears has a 4.01 ERA and a 4.12 xERA on the season. Woo has a 1.30 ERA and a 2.08 xERA in his five starts so far this year.

It is a get away day game and there could be a key bat or two missing from the lineup here. 

The home plate umpire here is Mahrley and he is a solid strike caller which is a plus for the under as well. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Atlanta Braves offense is better than they have shown in the last few weeks. Yes they are without Acuna, but this is still a very good offense and a deep lineup. There are several very good hitters on this team who have just been ice cold in the past month. I expect them to heat up.

Nick Pivetta pitches for the Red Sox. Pivetta has a much worse ERA at home with Boston than he does on the road. Pivetta gives up too many home runs at Fenway. The Braves lineup has torched him in the past too. In a large sample size, he has allowed a .371 wOBA against the Braves. 

Spencer Schwellenbach is a pretty good prospect, but he has been moved up to the majors very quickly. This is a big test for him.

The conditions at Fenway are great for an over. The temperature will be in the upper 80's with winds blowing out at about 10 mph. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Jack Flaherty is having a really impressive season. His ERA is a solid 3.46, but his advanced metrics paint an even better picture. Flaherty has a 2.79 FIP and a 2.03 xFIP. He has pitched into some bad luck or his ERA would be even better. Flaherty has a 2.35 ERA and a 2.15 FIP in his last six starts. He has just six walks and 54 strikeouts in those six outings. 

The Rangers offense ranks in the bottom eight in the majors in the last couple weeks. They have been struggling in general and they are striking out a lot.

Dane Dunning is a decent right handed pitcher. Dunning has good numbers in a small sample against the Tigers lineup. Detroit's lineup is a slightly below average lineup according to the advanced metrics. 

I think this total is set too high. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Two left handed starters are on the mound in this one. The Miami Marlins are second to last in the majors with a .271 weighted on base average against left handed pitching. The Texas Rangers are 26th out of 30 in wOBA against left handed pitching. 

Andrew Heaney and Trevor Rogers are middle of the pack lefties, but against this lineups that makes for a pretty good matchup. Both Heaney and Rogers have very good numbers against the opposing offense in a small sample size.

The Rangers have been involved in a lot of low scoring games of late. The Rangers have seen 10 of their last 12 games stay under this total. 

The Marlins have scored 3 runs or fewer in seven of their last nine games. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Seattle Mariners have underachieved on offense all season. They fired their hitting coach Friday and switched things up a bit. Now, they take on the LA Angels and Reid Detmers on Saturday.

Detmers has been absolutely crushed by the Mariners to the tune of a .431 weighted on base average in 77 plate appearances. Detmers is in terrible form of late too. He has a 9.49 ERA in his last five starts. The Mariners are better against lefties than right handed pitching.

The Angels offense has been better than expected without Mike Trout. The Angels also have one of the very worst bullpens in the majors. That has led to a lot of higher scoring games. Miller starts for the Mariners here and he has a poor 5.22 ERA in his last five starts.

The home plate umpire here is Mark Wegner. Wegner has one of the five lowest strikeout/walk ratios of any umpire in the last five years. He is a hitter friendly umpire.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Guardians -1.5* Patrick Corbin has been one of the worst left handed starters in baseball for the last couple years. Corbin started a bit better this year, but he has tailed off again of late. Corbin has a 6.12 ERA on the season, and in his last three starts he has 7 walks and 7 strikeouts. 

The Cleveland Guardians are 4th in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties at .335. The Guardians are second in ISO against lefties, so they have a lot of power. Corbin is well known for giving up a lot of home runs.

Tanner Bibee is a good starter and he's backed by the bullpen that has been the best bullpen in baseball so far this year. Washington's bullpen is middle of the pack.

Take Cleveland -1.5. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Los Angeles Dodgers offense has cooled off a bit lately. This is still a top two or three offense in the majors at the very worst. They might still be the best. I expect them to bounce back sooner rather than later. 

David Peterson will come back from the injured list to start this game against the Dodgers. Peterson has allowed a .406 weighted on base average against this Dodgers lineup in his career. It's a very tough ask for him to come back after a long time and have success immediately against this group.

James Paxton is due for more regression to the mean. Paxton has 28 walks and 28 strikeouts on the season. He has a 3.49 ERA and a 5.56 FIP. He is 35.5 years old and he can't keep up the 85% strand rate he currently has. The Mets have a .425 wOBA against Paxton in his career. 

Both bullpens are bottom ten in the league in the last two weeks.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The LA Angels have drastic splits this year on offense. The Angels are 17th in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. They are 4th in the majors in wOBA against left handed pitching.

The New York Yankees are first in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. The Yankees are also first in the majors in wOBA in road games. 

Nestor Cortes is a good lefty, but the Angels have been hitting lefties well and I think their power could make some noise here. 

Griffin Canning has pitched poorly especially of late for the Angels. In his last five starts, Canning has 14 walks and 16 strikeouts. He has a 2.93 ERA in those games, but his FIP is 5.47. He is stranded nearly ever runner on base. In the long run that isn't sustainable. 

The Angels bullpen is terrible and the Yankees should get chances against them too.

I like the matchups in this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Ranger Suarez is having a special season. Suarez has a 1.36 ERA and his expected ERA is an impressive 2.30. Suarez has had excellent control this year and he has been great at not giving up big innings. 

The Rockies lineup is much weaker this year than it has been in the past. Colorado's current lineup has really struggled against Suarez too. The Rockies lineup has a very low .241 weighted on base average against Suarez.

Cal Quantrill isn't a great pitcher, but he does a nice job mixing up his pitches and keeping batters guessing. Quantrill has a 3.59 ERA and a 3.88 expected ERA. He has a solid 3.91 ERA when pitching at home this year. 

Coors Field unders are tough, but the weather is better than normal this time of the year. The wind is expected to be blowing in at about 15 mph during this game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New York Yankees have held opponents to two runs or fewer in 7 of their last 9 games. The Yankees have good starting pitching as well as a deep bullpen.

The San Diego Padres offense is very streaky. They have struggled in a lot of games of late. The Padres have been held scoreless in 4 of their last 9 contests. 

Dylan Cease has elite stuff and is capable of shutting down good lineups. He does have some blowup potential, but it is a big plus for him that Doug Eddings is the home plate umpire here.

Marcus Stroman has been consistently pitching well this season, and the bullpen is in good shape heading into this one.

Doug Eddings has the highest strikes called percentage of any umpire in my umpire database over the last five years. Eddings has a ridiculously high strikeout/walk ratio of 3.96 so far this season. He's a clear positive for the under.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* Great American Ballpark is a top three hitters park in the majors, especially when it is warm in Cincinnati. The game time temperature is set to be 80 degrees.

Graham Ashcraft has drastic splits in his career. Ashcraft is far worse when pitching at GABP. He has a 3.93 ERA on the road in his career, but his home ERA is all the way up at 5.46. Ashcraft also has an ERA of 6.10 in May in his career. He has been far worse in the first half of the season than he has in the second half.

James Paxton has a 2.84 ERA and a 5.14 FIP. He also has a 5.55 expected ERA. He has a .242 batting average on balls in play allowed. He also has stranded 87% of runners on base. Neither of those are sustainable in the long run.

The Dodgers have the best offense in baseball. I expect them to score a lot on Ashcraft and the Reds bullpen. The Reds should do enough here in good hitting conditions at home.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Chicago White Sox have been dreadful offensively on the season as a whole, but they are up to 19th in weighted on base average in the last 14 days. The Blue Jays are a better offense than they have shown this year. They have some solid hitters who have underachieved to this point.

These two teams are last and second to last in batting average on balls in play so far this year. They are due for some positive regression in the weeks to come.

Nastrini starts for the White Sox and he has been hit really hard in both Triple A and his two starts in the majors this year. Nastrini has a 7.88 ERA in two big league starts this year. In Triple A Nastrini has a 5.83 ERA and a 6.39 FIP in six starts. I have always taken the approach that if guys struggle to get outs in Triple A, I can't assume that they will be good right away in the majors.

Bassitt starts for the Blue Jays. He has a 5.03 ERA and a 5.00 expected ERA this year. He's 35 years old and is likely past his prime as a starting pitcher.

Both of these bullpens rank in the bottom three in the majors in FIP.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Houston Astros lineup has heated up a lot of late. Houston has scored 7 runs or more in four of their last eight games. Houston is now third in the majors in weighted on base average. The Astros go up against Griffin Canning here. Canning has allowed a terrible .408 wOBA against this Astros lineup in his career. I think they'll get to him again here. 

The Angels bullpen is a bottom five bullpen in the league as well. Houston should have scoring opportunities all throughout this game.

Cristian Javier has a 3.23 ERA but a 4.29 FIP so far this year. He has allowed a batting average on balls in play of only .226 which should regress to the mean. The Angels are 12th in the majors in wOBA.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Guardians have the best bullpen ERA in all of baseball. They are also first in FIP and SIERA as a bullpen. They are a tremendous bullpen. The Minnesota Twins bullpen is above average in ERA and third in the majors in SIERA.

Tanner Bibee is an above average starter who has good swing and miss stuff. The Twins are 18th in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. 

The Guardians are 24th in wOBA against right handed pitching on the year thus far. Paddack is certainly not an elite pitcher, but he has been pretty solid most of this year.

Minnesota is 25th in wOBA in the last 14 days. Cleveland is 28th in wOBA on offense in the last 14 days. 

The wind is expected to be blowing in for this one and that matters quite a bit in Cleveland.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Los Angeles Dodgers have the best offense in the majors. The Dodgers have a .342 weighted on base average on the season. With a trio of Mookie Betts, Shoehei Ohtani, and Freddie Freeman leading the way the Dodgers have huge upside as an offense.

Frankie Montas pitches for the Reds here. Montas has been shelled by this Dodgers lineup. In 63 plate appearances, the Dodgers have a whopping ..534 wOBA against Montas. Montas is a below average right handed pitcher.

James Paxton pitches for the Dodgers here. Paxton has a 2.58 ERA on the year, but he has a FIP of 4.86 and an expected ERA of 5.89. Paxton has stranded 86.3% of runners on base this year, and that number will regress over time.

The Reds offense is quite a bit better against left handed pitching, and I think they'll get their scoring chances in this one too.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Cardinals offense disappointed for a very long time, but they have come to life of late. St. Louis is 28th on the year in weighted on base average, but they are 9th in the last week alone. The Cardinals have scored 17 runs in the first two games of this series against the Angels.

The Angels have seen 4 of their last 6 games get to at least 12 runs. Griffin Canning has a 5.75 ERA on the year and a expected ERA and FIP of about 5. 

Lance Lynn is well past his prime, and this Angels lineup has a .370 wOBA against him. 

The Angels bullpen has been terrible. They have the worst bullpen ERA in the majors at 5.21. St. Louis is a middle of the pack bullpen.

Larry Vanover is a bit of an over umpire through the years so that is a plus as well.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Tampa Bay Rays bullpen has been one of the biggest disappointments of the season thus far. They are dead last in the majors in FIP allowed so far this year. Aaron Civale starts this game, and he has struggled badly this season. Civale has failed to complete 5 innings pitched in four straight starts. He has a 5.88 ERA on the season thus far. 

Nick Pivetta has a career 4.85 ERA pitching at Fenway Park. Pivetta also has a terrible 5.35 ERA in night games in his career (3.84 ERA in day games). This one will be under the lights at Fenway.

The wind is expected to be blowing straight out at Fenway at about 12 mph at the time of the first pitch in this one. Overs at Fenway Park with the wind blowing out at least 8 mph have an ROI of 11.1% since 2006.

I think both offenses will have a lot of scoring opportunities in this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Phillies* The Philadelphia Phillies have the best record in baseball. They are 13-3 in their last 16 games. Philadelphia is second in the majors in weighted on base average. They have a better wOBA against lefties than they do against righties.

The Mets are 13th in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching, but they are only 24th in the majors in wOBA against left handed pitching. 

Christopher Sanchez was solid last year, and he has been great this season. Sanchez has a 3.22 ERA and a 2.88 FIP on the season. 

Sean Manaea has been crushed in limited time against this Phillies lineup. Nick Castellanos has 5 hits in 8 at bats against him including two home runs. Whit Merrfield has hit him hard too. Manaea has a .469 batting average allowed in 36 plate appearances against the Phillies.

I'll lay the very short price with the road teams.

Take Philadelphia. 

*3 Star Play Under* Zac Gallen has proven himself as one of the better right handed starting pitchers in the league. Gallen has really good command of multiple pitches, and he has the strikeout pitch that you need in today's baseball. 

Dean Kremer has consistently started the season terribly in March and April, but he isn't a bad pitcher overall. Kremer has a good career ERA in the month of May. He is coming off one of his best starts of the season throwing six innings of shutout baseball against the Reds. He has a 1.96 ERA in his last three starts.

Bill Miller is the home plate umpire here, and he is consistently a very good under umpire. His strikes called percentage and strikeout/walk ratio have been excellent for pitchers many years in a row now.

Relatively cool temperatures and a slight breeze in help a bit too.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Washington Nationals and Boston Red Sox meet at Fenway Park on Saturday afternoon. It will be a cool and somewhat breezy day in Boston for this one. A temperature of about 54 degrees with winds blowing in at 9 or 10 mph from right field toward home plate.

These conditions have been great to under bettors in the long run at Fenway. This is one of the parks where the winds matter the very most. On cool days where the ball doesn't travel as well, this is a particularly strong angle.

Irvin and Criswell have both pitched well so far this year. They are backed by bullpens that both rank top seven in the majors in FIP. 

These two offenses are mediocre at this point.

The Red Sox have seen 8 of their last 9 games stay under this total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Dodgers -1.5* The Los Angeles Dodgers are the best offense in the majors. They are first in the majors in weighted on base average by a mile. The Dodgers are first with a wOBA of .355. The Padres are a solid eighth, but are down at a .323 wOBA. 

Tyler Glasnow is one of the best pitchers in the majors when he is healthy. Glasnow has a 2.70 ERA and a 2.46 FIP on the year. He has a 1.29 ERA and a 0.97 FIP in his last three starts. Glasnow has a fantastic .214 wOBA allowed against this Padres lineup in a small sample size.

Michael King has a 4.29 ERA and a 5.71 FIP on the season thus far. He has allowed 10 home runs in just 42 innings pitched. The Dodgers lineup has crushed King in the past. King has a .442 wOBA allowed in 66 plate appearances against this current Dodgers lineup.

The Padres are a decent team (20-20 so far), but the Dodgers have the most talented roster in the majors.

Take the Dodgers -1.5. 

*3 Star Play on Dodgers -1.5* The LA Dodgers underperformed early in the season, but they have been playing great baseball of late. The Dodgers have won four games in a row by at least 3 runs. The Marlins have lost four of their last five by 2 runs or more. The Marlins have lost their four games by a combined 27 runs. 

I waited to see the Dodgers lineup for this game, and the lineup has Betts and Ohtani both in the lineup. Freddie Freeman is also in the lineup. Having those three as the top three batters in a lineup is scary for opposing pitchers. 

Weathers is a average or below average lefty for the Marlins. The Dodgers have the number one offense in the majors.

Take the Dodgers -1.5. 

*3 Star Play on Phillies ML* The Toronto Blue Jays are 16-19 on the season. Toronto starts Jose Berrios who has good overall numbers, but the advanced metrics show he is due for regression to the mean. 

Berrios has a 1.44 ERA but a 4.87 xERA. He has a 4.01 FIP and a 4.22 xFIP. He has stranded 96.6% of runners that have gotten on base. His career average is stranded 73.3% of runners on base. Berrios has a long history of being far better at home than on the road too. 

The Phillies lineup has a tremendous .367 weighted on base average against Berrios in his career.

Christopher Sanchez has a 3.68 ERA and a 2.94 FIP on the year. Sanchez has been consistently very good, and his career numbers at home are much better than on the road. Sanchez has a career wOBA allowed of just .302 at home.

The Phillies have won 10 games in a row at home. 

At this price, I'm taking Philadelphia. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Pittsburgh Pirates and the Colorado Rockies both rank in the bottom five in the majors in weighted on base average. These are two weak offenses.

Colorado has consistently been one of the worst offenses away from Coors Field in the last few years, and this Rockies lineup has less depth than most of their teams in recent seasons. 

The Pirates are dead last in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching. Feltner is only a mediocre pitcher, but the Pirates have been struggling badly at the plate.

Pittsburgh's pitching staff has been better than expected. The bullpen is a strong point for the Pirates. Falter has been pitching pretty well and I like his chances of pitching well in this matchup.

The Pirates have played 8 straight games that have stayed under this total.

Doug Eddings is the home plate umpire here. He is a top three under umpire in the majors. He consistently has very high strikeout/walk ratios.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New York Yankees host the Detroit Tigers in an early Saturday showdown here. 

Clarke Schmidt has big splits on first/second half of the season. He is much better in the early part of the season. The same is true for Casey Mize. Schmidt has been much better pitching at home. Mize is actually better in his young career on the road.

The Tigers have seen only three of their last nine games go above this total. Four of the Yankees last five games have finished with six runs or fewer. 

The wind is expected to be blowing in at about 11 mph from right center field during this game. The wind does play a role in games at this stadium.

Ryan Blakeney is a strike caller behind the plate. He has a strikeout/walk ratio this year of an insanely high 4.42. He is a plus for the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Miami Marlins are last in the majors in weighted on base average on the road at just .263. The A's are bottom five in the majors in wOBA at home, where they have been much worse offensively than on the road. 

Miami is also significantly worse against lefties than right handed pitchers. J.P. Sears is a bit inconsistent, but he's capable of shutting down some lineups. The Marlins lineup has been shut out many times this year.

The A's have a really good bullpen and a great closer. 

Oakland has seen 7 of its last 9 games finish at 7 total runs or fewer. I think we see another low scoring contest here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The San Diego Padres have scored 6 runs in two of their last three games. The Cincinnati Reds have scored 20 runs in their last four contests. I think this total of just 8 is set too low.

Graham Ashcraft has drastic splits between the first half of the season and the second half of the season during his career. He has an ERA of 5.35 in the first half of the season. He has an ERA of 3.94 in the second half of the season. 

Joe Musgrove has a 6.94 ERA and a 6.59 FIP on the season so far. Musgrove is giving up a bunch of hard contact, and his home run rate allowed is through the roof. The Reds have some power hitters and Elly De La Cruz is arguably the hottest hitter in baseball right now.

Manny Gonzalez is the home plate umpire here and he is a top three over umpire in baseball. He consistently has low strikes called percentages and low strikeout/walk numbers.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Phillies ML* The Los Angeles Angels had a preseason season win total of 72.5. The Angels are 11-18 so far this year and they are 4-9 at home. The Phillies had a season win total of 89.5. The Phillies are 9-5 on the road so far this year. They are 7-3 in their last 10 games. 

Tyler Anderson has a sparkling 1.78 ERA, but a high 4.89 FIP and a 5.09 xFIP on the season. Anderson has stranded a whopping 94.9% of runners on base so far this season. He has allowed opponents to have a batting average on balls in play of only .181 on the season. There is regression coming for Anderson. 

In his career, Anderson has a .490 weighted on base average allowed against this Phillies lineup. Bryce Harper is 6/10 against him with 3 home runs and 3 doubles. The lineup in general has hit him hard.

Spencer Turnbull has a 1.33 ERA and a solid 3.14 FIP on the season. He has allowed one run or fewer in four of his five starts this season. The Angels are a below average lineup.

The Phillies bullpen is 7th in the majors in FIP. The Angels are 27th.

I'll lay the price with the road team. 

Take Philadelphia. 

*4 Star Play Under* Logan Gilbert has a 1.87 ERA so far this year. Gilbert is a guy I feel is quite underrated. He pounds the strike zone and does a pretty good job inducing soft contact. Gilbert has a good track record against the Diamondbacks in a small sample size. He has a 1.049 WHIP in the first half of the season in his career. He has been slightly better in day games than night games as well.

Brandon Pfaadt is a mediocre right handed pitcher. This is a pitcher's park though, and the Mariners offense hasn't been very good. 

The Diamondbacks offense is far better against lefties than right handed pitching.

Bill Miller is a top two or three under umpire in all of baseball. He consistently has a very high strikeout/walk ratio and his strikes called percentage in general is always high.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Pablo Lopez has a 4.39 ERA but a solid 3.57 FIP and a 3.13 xFIP on the season thus far. Lopez has a tremendous history against this Angels lineup. The Angels lineup has a .091 average and a .131 weighted on base average against Lopez in 48 plate appearances. 

Reid Detmers has consistently been much better in the first half of the season than the second half throughout his career. He has been great all year up until a shaky start last time out against the Orioles. Baltimore has been hitting extremely well so I won't make too much of that. Detmers has good swing and miss stuff.

Dan Merzel is the umpire here and he has a very high strikeout percentage in his career. The under is 5-1 in his 6 games behind the plate this year.

Take the under.