*3 Star Play Under* TCU takes on Gonzaga on Sunday night in what should be a fun contest between two very good teams.

TCU does play quickly, but the Horned Frogs have been extremely inconsistent on offense. They are very good defensively. TCU is 23rd in defensive efficiency. They are also 23rd in turnover rate forced. The Horned Frogs will switch up their defenses a lot and look to give Gonzaga's offense some trouble with unique setups. Gonzaga's offense is excellent, but they haven't faced many teams throughout the year who are able to be as aggressive and force turnovers at the rate TCU can. 

TCU's is just 213th in effective field goal percentage offense. It will be pretty rare to see a total in the upper 150's with one team who has been this inefficient on offense. TCU had been very good on the offensive glass earlier with Eddie Lampkin being a key, but he is off the team now. The Horned Frogs will rely heavily on Mike Miles in this one.

Ball Arena in Colorado at a high altitude hosts this game. The first four games played here all stayed under in the Round of 64. They stayed under closing numbers which had dropped drastically in many cases. They stayed under by an average of 6.75 points. The second half was very low in most of these games. 

I think the pace will be pretty fast here, but I think this total is a few points too high given the situation. It's a one and done and the unders have been hitting at a very high rate in this NCAA Tournament. Hopefully we get another ref crew here who swallows the whistle more than in the regular season games. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Missouri Tigers do like to play fast and they will try to push the temp, but Princeton has to know that they don't want to get into an up and down track meet with Missouri.

I backed the under between Princeton/Arizona and it stayed under by 40 points. I certainly don't expect this one to stay that low, but Princeton did show they are able to slow the game down against a team who wants to run and run. 

Missouri is very weak on the defensive glass, but Princeton is below average in their offensive rebounding percentages and second chance conversions. 

Princeton is elite at getting defensive rebounds (8th in the nation) and the Tigers defense is above average.

This is a really high total and both teams would have to shoot the ball well to reach this total at my expected pace here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The defenses here are elite. Tennessee is second in the nation in defensive efficiency on the year. Duke is 17th for the year, but they are a top ten defense in the last month. Both defenses do a fantastic job of protecting the paint and making opponents take contested mid range or long range jumpers frequently.

Tennessee has given up 57 points or less in four of their last six games. The Volunteers have lots of flaws as a team, but they are very athletic and they play great team defense. On offense, Tennessee lacks shooters and often goes through long scoring droughts.

Duke is a little too careless with the basketball, and Tennessee should force turnovers and hurt Duke's offensive efficiency here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Kent State Golden Flashes stand out as a rare team from the MAC who defends very well. Kent State took a fantastic game plan in and nearly won at both Houston and Gonzaga. They slowed the game down and used their top notch defense to keep the game close. 

Kent State's Hornbeak and Payton are long and athletic, and Jacobs is a fantastic one on one defender. I think they are more than capable of giving Indiana a really tough time getting open looks. 

Kent State's offense isn't consistently good. The Golden Flashes aren't a very good outside shooting team, and I don't think they can get in the paint and score on a consistent basis against Indiana.

This game is played at MVP Arena in Albany which has been a fantastic under venue in the past. It's a large arena with a tough shooting backdrop. How good has the under been in games here? The under is nearly 60% in the last 200 games here.

Look for both defenses to make it tough on the opposition here. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Kentucky Wildcats and Providence Friars both play at a slower than average tempo. This is a neutral site game in Greensboro. In Greensboro, totals of 140 or higher have gone 75-47-1 to the under. The average margin of victory for the under is a solid 3.56 points over this large sample size.

Kentucky's offense will likely drive into the lane a lot here, but that is the strength of the Providence defense. The Friars will mix and match defenses a lot under Ed Cooley.

Providence's offense relies too much on Bryce Hopkins. There's a lot of pressure on him in this game against his old team. The Friars have relied heavily on offensive rebounds as well, but Kentucky was first in the SEC in defensive rebounding this year.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Marquette Golden Eagles defense was very weak early in the season, but since the start of February they have consistently been much better on defense. Marquette is a good defense now overall, but their weakness is defensive rebounding. Fortunately, Vermont isn't the type of team that goes after it on the offensive glass very much at all. Vermont is 358th out of 363 in offensive rebounding. The Catamounts are happy to get back and stop opponents in transition.

Vermont's good transition defense helps here too. The Marquette offense is excellent overall, but I think they'll have a bit harder time than normal getting to the hoop in transition. That should mean more shot clock being used up.

Neither of these teams get to the line very much at all, and second chance points aren't likely to be very high in this game either. 

These high spread games early in the NCAA Tournament have stayed under the total far more often than they have gone over. I think this under has value as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Texas A&M Aggies attack the basket and get to the free throw line at a high rate. There aren't many teams Penn State has played this year that attack the hoop as hard as the Aggies do. Penn State lacks shot blockers on the interior. In fact, they are just 327th out of 363 teams in the country in blocked shot percentage.

On the other side, Penn State is an elite shooting team. The Nittany Lions shoot 38.5% from three point range. Penn State is going to shoot a bunch of long range jumpers in this one. On the surface Texas A&M's three point defense looks good, but I see a couple big reasons for that. First, the SEC in general was a horrible three point shooting conference this year. Penn State will be the best long range shooting team Texas A&M has played. Second, that is shown by Texas A&M ranking 213th in open three rate allowed. Opponents were missing open shots. I think Penn State can make them. Jalen Pickett is an elite playmaker and Lundy, Funk, and Wynter are great outside shooters. 

The pace will be relatively slow here, but I think the efficiencies should be high enough for it to get over.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* High seeds in the first round of the NCAA Tournament who are favored by a large margin have seen their games go under the total at a high rate. That has been especially true when the total is set at a high number.

Arizona likes to play quickly, and they should score quite a few points here. At the same time, if they are up late it wouldn't surprise me to see them pull quite a few starters and slow things down a bit. They will have a tough challenge ahead with just one day off in between.

Princeton should absolutely know their best chance is to stall and slow the tempo down drastically. The Tigers will shoot a lot of long range jumpers here. They are going to be up against a very long Arizona team who will contest those long range jumpers much better than the teams Princeton played against in the Ivy League.

Arizona's defense isn't elite, but it is much improved and they looked great defensively against UCLA in their last game.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Charleston Cougars are 31-3 on the season. Charleston has been fantastic this year, but they did play a very weak schedule. Charleston hasn't seen a defense as good as San Diego State all season long. 

San Diego State's defense has rounded into form in a big way of late. Their last four games opponents have scored 0.931 points per possession or less in each contest. San Diego State is clearly a top eight or ten defense in the country. 

Charleston is all about getting out in transition and running, but San Diego State ranks in the top three in the nation in transition defense. Charleston's halfcourt sets end in too many contested three point jumpers. I don't think that is a good solution against the Aztecs.

San Diego State's offense still goes through long scoring droughts pretty often. They too often settle for low quality mid range jumpers.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* I don't usually play many unders early in the smaller postseason tournaments, but I'm going to in this one.

The fact that it is a smaller postseason tournament is definitely accounted for in the number or else this total would be several points lower. In recent years the over and under have been pretty even early in these tournaments.

This is a big game for Liberty. A chance to host a national power in a postseason tournament. Liberty should be highly motivated for a game like this. The Flames are consistently very slow paced.

Villanova is even slower paced than Liberty this year. The Wildcats and Flames both are top 50 defensive rebounding teams in the country. Both of them excel in defending without fouling too. 

They do both shoot the 3 ball a lot and if they are red hot from 3 this will go over, but with normal shooting percentages this game should stay under. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Xavier Musketeers and Marquette Golden Eagles meet in the Big East Finals on Saturday night. These two teams met twice during the regular season. Those two games finished with 156 points and 137 points. The pace of both of those games finished at just 69 possessions and 68 possessions. Marquette mixes in some zone defenses, and that has caused Xavier's offense to slow down from their normal very fast pace.

This game is at Madison Square Garden which is arguably the single best under venue in all of college basketball. The under has been money again this year at MSG in the Big East Tournament. Both games went well under the total last night. 

ShotQuality looks at the quality of shot taken and they believe the two regular season games between these two teams should have finished 154 and 150 points.

The tougher shooting backdrop and a lot on the line in the finals of the Big East Tournament. I'll take the under on this high number.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Florida Atlantic Owls are likely in the NCAA Tournament regardless, but I know their coaching staff has talked about wanting to finish the deal and win this Conference USA Tournament. The life of a mid-major isn't easy, and they want to avoid losing to MTSU twice in the same season.

MTSU is a slower paced team that relies on getting second chance points. Florida Atlantic is the single best team in the conference when it comes to defensive rebounding. The Owls do a great job defending without fouling as well. 

Florida Atlantic does play quickly, but their defense is underrated. The Owls rank in the top five percent of teams in the country in shot selection allowed.

This one is at Ford Center in Frisco, Texas. This is a football facility that has been great to under bettors through the years. The semifinal and final rounds played here have gone 10-3 to the under.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* These teams met twice this year. The pace was very slow in both games. One finished with 134 points and the other with 110 points.

Shot Quality is an advanced metrics site that measures how many points should have been scored based on the quality of shots taken by each team. They believe the 134 game should have been 129, and the 110 game should have been 119. Both were legitimately very low scoring games.

This is a win or go home and neither team will be pushing the tempo. These are the top two teams in the conference in defensive rebounding percentage as well.

Games played at Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City have gone under the total by an average of 4.65 points (a very nice margin) in a 49 game sample size. In the postseason, the under is 19-8 at Boardwalk Hall. This is a big arena and these MAAC schools are not accustomed to playing in a big place like this with a tough shooting backdrop. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Marist Red Foxes have to try to slow the pace of this game down. Marist is a very slow paced team and they won their first game by stalling the pace out. They'll try to do the same here.

Games played at Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City have gone under the total by an average of 4.65 points (a very nice margin) in a 49 game sample size. In the postseason, the under is 19-8 at Boardwalk Hall. This is a big arena and these MAAC schools are not accustomed to playing in a big place like this with a tough shooting backdrop. 

Quinnipiac relies on a lot of long range jumpers, but with this background I think they'll be tougher than normal to knock down.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The first time these two teams met the posted total was 145 points. The game finished with 147 points after they scored more than 90 points in the second half. 

This total is set 7 points higher in a win or go home situation in a game being played in an NBA arena at Rocket Mortgage in Cleveland, Ohio. 

The pace of this game should be a relatively average pace for college basketball. Oddsmakers are counting on efficiency in order to get to this high total. More times than not the defense steps up in these win or go home games, and we have seen the under do better overall the last couple days as tournaments have gone on.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* UNC Central is a very good team on defense every single year under Coach LeVelle Moton. This team doesn't give up many easy looks. They held Delaware State to 55 and 58 points in the two regular season meetings between these two teams.

Delaware State slows the pace down, and UNC Central is happy to play at a slow pace as well. Delaware State is first in the conference in defensive rebounding.

This game is played at Norfolk Scope Arena which has proven to be a solid under venue in the past. 

This game has a higher total than the average of the two regular season meetings between these teams. Both regular season games went under. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The total here is set the same as the regular season meetings between these two teams. Shot Quality is an advanced metrics site that measures how many points should have been scored based on the quality of shots taken. In both regular season games, Shot Quality believes the game should have stayed well below this total (132 and 130 points). 

The under is 57% at Madison Square Garden in college hoops games with a total of 136 or higher in the last 15 years. The under is 27-12 in postseason games at MSG with a total of 136 or higher. 

Villanova is the slowest paced team in the Big East. I think they have a good lead here and grind down the pace with the lead late. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Seton Hall Pirates are expected to be without point guard Kadary Richmond. Without him their offense looks a lot different. Seton Hall has been playing slower at the end of the season without Richmond on the floor. They have been making tough shots, but this game is played at tough shooting venue Madison Square Garden.

DePaul has had another terrible season. The Blue Demons lack offensive firepower. This is a team that doesn't share the ball well. They settle into one on one spots.

The under is 57% at Madison Square Garden in college hoops games with a total of 136 or higher in the last 15 years. The under is 27-12 in postseason games at MSG with a total of 136 or higher. 

Both regular season games stayed under this total as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Pitt Panthers have changed things up a bit this year and are playing faster and have been better on offense. Pitt hasn't been able to be slowed down tempo wise by many teams so far this year. Which team has slowed them down? Georgia Tech. Two of Pitt's three slowest games of the year have been against Georgia Tech. 

Georgia Tech just played a grinder yesterday against Florida State (59 possessions) and FSU is a team that normally likes to get out and run too. 

The last game these two played had a total of 137. This is a win or go home game for GA Tech, and Pitt might miss the NCAA Tournament if they lose this game too. A lot is on the line. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Northern Arizona Lumberjacks stunned the Eastern Washington Eagles a couple days ago. Montana has taken care of business to reach this game. 

The two games played between these two teams in the regular season were 138 and 133 points in regulation. Both were played to a slower than average pace. The advanced metrics site ShotQuality believes based on the quality of shots the two games in the regular season should have finished 136 (after overtime) and 128 (in the second game). 

This is a win or go home on a neutral floor. Both teams take a lot of 3 point jumpers. Both of these offenses actually rate in the bottom 10% of all teams in the country in terms of quality of shot. They do both have good outside shooters, but the defense should be a bit better in a game like this and a neutral floor is a positive for the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The St. Peter's Peacocks have the worst offense in the MAAC. They were especially bad away from home this year. Fairfield's defense was actually significantly better on the road and on neutral floors than at home this year. 

The two regular season meetings between these two teams both stayed under this very low posted total. Those games played to an average pace of 61 possessions (very slow). 

St. Peter's has played its last five games to a pace of 61 possessions or slower. 

Fairfield has been one of the best defenses in the MAAC all season long. 

This game is played at Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City. It's a large venue where shooters have had a tough time in the past. The under has hit by an average of more than 4 points in all games played at this building.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Chattanooga Mocs and Furman Paladins meet in the Southern Conference Championship game tonight. Chattanooga beat Furman by a point in overtime last year in the finals. These two teams look a little different this year, but the stakes are extremely high again here.

The two regular season meetings both went to Furman. Both of those games stayed under this total. This is the biggest game of the year for both of these teams. 

The game is played at Cherokee Center in North Carolina. The under is 29-17 in games played here. 

Both of these teams shoot a ton of 3 pointers. They are both capable of shooting it well, and if they are on fire from 3, this one will go over the total. However, both defenses are above average defending the long range jumper, and the tempo is likely to slow down here with so much on the line. It being at a neutral site that is tough for shooters is a positive as well.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* North Dakota State and South Dakota meet late Sunday in the Summit League Conference Tournament.

These two teams played two games in the regular season that stayed under this total. Those games finished at 134 and 133 points. 

South Dakota relies very heavily on three point shooting. The Coyotes have shot it well, but North Dakota State is third in the Summit League in 3 point defense. This is a neutral site too where the shooting backdrop isn't ideal. 

North Dakota State has played better defense down the stretch. Their last four games have all finished at 140 total points or fewer. 

If the long range shots are falling this could go over, but I think the pace will be pretty slow and neither team gets to the line much or gets second chances very often at all.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Summit League's top team starts postseason play today as Oral Roberts takes on North Dakota. 

Oral Roberts and North Dakota played twice in the regular season. Those games finished at 156 points and 143 points total. This game will be played on a neutral floor in South Dakota that has been good to under bettors in the past. It is win or go home. 

Shot Quality tracks what the score should have been based on the quality of shot: here are the results from the first two games

156 (155 should have been) 

143 (140 should have been)

Vanover is a good defensive force inside for Oral Roberts and North Dakota will have to settle for a lot of outside jumpers here.

In a win or go home game on a tough neutral court this is a few points too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Florida Gators defense isn't even close to the same without Castleton on the floor. They allowed 82 against Kentucky and 88 against Vanderbilt in their first two games without him. Georgia scored 67 last game due to terrible outside shooting. 

Florida should get their points against a woeful LSU defense. The Gators have been playing a bit faster in the last few games, and LSU has the worst defense in the SEC. 

LSU should get second chance opportunities throughout.

The over has been cashing in at a very high rate here at the end of the season and many of those overs have been from late season games between mediocre teams with little to play for. That has been a good long term angle as well. This one fits.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Merrimack Warriors have an excellent defense that has given the Northeast Conference problems all season long. Merrimack is allowing 0.88 points per possession in the conference. That is just fantastic from a defensive efficiency standpoint.

These two teams have played each other twice in the regular season. Those games finished at 114 and 122 points. 

This is a win or go home game where the tempo tends to slow down and the defenses give a ton of effort. 

Merrimack's offense is bottom three in the country in efficiency. Both teams defend well without fouling. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UC Davis Aggies and Long Beach State 49ers meet in the regular season finale for both teams on Saturday afternoon. 

The first game between these two played to an extremely fast tempo of 77 possessions. The shooting numbers in that game were ugly. It still got to 147 total points. With normalized shooting numbers, I expect this one to be a higher scoring game.

Long Beach State and UC Davis both have big edges on the offensive glass. There should be a bunch of second chance opportunities here. Both teams live at the line and free throws should help boost this point total a lot.

I think the pace stays quick and the shooting improves some here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The first game between Rice and FIU easily cleared this number. FIU and Rice both want to pressure and run when they can. 

FIU was without star scorer Denver Jones for a few games and that slowed down their offensive a lot, but he is back now and scoring a bunch once again. 

Rice gets a lot of open outside looks against this FIU aggressive defense, and the Owls are solid shooters especially on their home floor.

The pace should be there or a high scoring game in this one. 

The over has been cashing in at a very high rate here at the end of the season and many of those overs have been from late season games between mediocre teams with little to play for. That has been a good long term angle as well. This one fits.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The first two times these teams met the final totals were 131 and 134 points. Shot Quality is an advanced metrics site that measures the quality of each shot and their system tells what the score should have been based on the quality of shot taken. In the two games the final totals should have been 135 and 128 points according to Shot Quality. Both are comfortably under the current total.

The posted total here is set higher than it was in the regular season games between these two. Why should it be? They stayed under the total in two slow paced games in the regular season. This is a win or go home game played on a neutral floor that is 24-14 to the under.

This number is a few points too high.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The UTEP Miners and MTSU Blue Raiders both play unique defenses. These two teams like to switch things up and trap and get steals when they can. 

The first meeting between these two saw a final score of 84-72. While I'm not confident it will be that high again, I think this total is too low. 

This game doesn't mean anything to these two teams who are in a must win spot in the conference tournament. This is the regular season finale and I think the teams will feel free to play a bit quicker.

The over has been cashing in at a very high rate here at the end of the season and many of those overs have been from late season games between mediocre teams with little to play for. That has been a good long term angle as well. This one fits.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The La Salle Explorers played decent defense earlier in the season, but they have been terrible of late. La Salle has allowed 1.29, 1.25, and 1.32 points per possession in their last three games. That is some awful defense. Loyola Chicago does get good looks at the basket, and I think they can put up a solid amount of points in this one.

The Loyola defense has been very disappointing for their fans all year. The Ramblers don't have shot blockers and they have given up too many open jumpers in general. 

The over has been cashing in at a very high rate here at the end of the season and many of those overs have been from late season games between mediocre teams with little to play for. That has been a good long term angle as well. This one fits.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Colorado State Rams have been amazing on offense in their home building. They are averaging 1.195 points per possession in the Mountain West at home. They are also giving up 1.114 points per possession at home. They have had some shootouts on their home floor. 

New Mexico is a different team with Jaelen House in the lineup. They struggled to score and some teams were able to slow them down without House, but they have consistently played to a pace of at least 68 possessions or more with House in the lineup. 

The first game was 88-69 New Mexico at New Mexico. Colorado State should be able to score down low here. The Rams are 5th in near proximity offense at Haslametrics and New Mexico is 125th at NP defense as they lack shot blockers down low.

New Mexico speed should get them some easy points in transition here too, and House and Mashburn are matchup problems.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Denver Pioneers and North Dakota Fighting Hawks meet in the first round of the Summit League Conference Tournament. This game is played at Sanford Premier Center in South Dakota on a neutral floor. The under is 14-8 in the last 22 postseason games played here. 

Denver and North Dakota are both really bad teams. This isn't necessarily an easy under to take, but I think it is a solid play. The two regular season games both finished 149. This is a bigger game where it is win or go home. 

Denver relies on getting inside and North Dakota's relative strength on defense is their interior defense with their solid height. Neither team plays all that fast either, and this is a high total for a game with an average tempo.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Citadel and Mercer just played in their last game in the regular season and that one finished 72-50 and was played to a very slow pace of 51 possessions. 

Both of these teams struggle to get second chance points. Neither of them get to the free throw line much either. 

Mercer has turned into a pretty good defensive team as the year has gone along. The Bears were third in the SoCon in defensive efficiency. They have mixed in some zone defenses to slow down the opposition.

The Citadel is terrible offensively. The Bulldogs like to put up a lot of 3's, but that is the strength of the Mercer defense (perimeter defense). 

This game is played at Cherokee Center in North Carolina. The under is 23-13 in games played here. 

Take the under. 

*5 Star Top Play Under* The Missouri State Bears have played 11 of their last 14 games under this total in regulation. Missouri State is the slowest paced team in the Missouri Valley Conference. They also have multiple very good shot blockers to keep the opposition out of the paint.

UIC has had some higher scoring games of late, but both games between these two in the regular season stayed well under this total.

This is a win or go home game.

This game is played on a neutral floor at Enterprise Arena in St. Louis. This is a hockey arena which is noted for its tough shooting backdrops because of the size of the building. Unders have historically done very well in the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament. 

Take the under.

*This line has shifted some since I selected it- I would play this for 5 stars down to 131 and for 4 stars at anything lower than that* 

*4 Star Play Under* The first time these two teams met it went into overtime both times. 

The first game finished at 147 points after OT (122 points total before).

The second game finished at 153 points after OT (130 points total before). 

While it is always possible this game goes into overtime, we couldn't predict that it would. These two have played games well under this even in a regular season setup. 

This is a win or go home game where defense is typically more engaged.

This game is played on a neutral floor at Enterprise Arena in St. Louis. This is a hockey arena which is noted for its tough shooting backdrops because of the size of the building. Unders have historically done very well in the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament. 

Take the under.

*4 Star Play Under* This is the early game in St. Louis on Thursday at the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament. 

Illinois State plays at one of the slowest paces of any team in the nation. Northern Iowa plays at an average tempo. Overall, this should be a game played at a slow pace. 

The two regular season meetings finished at 126 and 128 points. 

Both teams are good on the defensive glass which is a plus for the under.

This game is played on a neutral floor at Enterprise Arena in St. Louis. This is a hockey arena which is noted for its tough shooting backdrops because of the size of the building. Unders have historically done very well in the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament. 

Take the under.

*This line has shifted some- I would bet this for 4 stars down to 136 and 3 stars at anything lower than that.* 

*3 Star Play Under* The Wagner Seahawks have played 11 of their last 12 games under this posted total. In fact, all 11 of those games finished at 126 points or fewer. Wagner is a great under team for a few reasons. First, they rank as the fifth slowest paced team in the country. Wagner also ranks 345th in offensive efficiency in the nation. This team takes a lot of low percentage shots. Wagner is also a pretty good defensive team though. The Seahawks are second in the NEC in defensive efficiency. Their one main problem on defense is how much they foul, but Sacred Heart is 295th in FTA/FGA in the country.

Sacred Heart has improved on defense this year. In conference play, they are fourth in defensive efficiency. Sacred Heart has played to a slower teams preferred tempo several times (Wagner, Merrimack, C Connecticut St). 

Both games between these two in the regular season went under this total (126 and 121 points).

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The first time these two teams played the final was 78-70. That game cleared this total fairly comfortably. I think this game will go over the total as well.

Colorado State is dead last in the Mountain West in defensive efficiency. The Rams are giving up far too many open shots. On the other side, Colorado State's offense is very good. Isaiah Stevens is a good leader for the team at guard and he has a great 115.9 offensive rating. He takes great care of the basketball and is an elite passer as well. 

San Jose State puts up a lot of shots from long range, and Colorado State is very susceptible against good long range shooting teams. San Jose State has 29 and 21 offensive rebounds in their last two home games as well.

There are multiple very good angles for mediocre or worse teams playing their last couple regular season games and those games trending toward the over pretty strongly.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* This is the final game of the regular season for both of these two teams. The Big Sky Conference is well known for poor defense and good offenses. It's a weak league overall, but there are quite a few guys in this conference who can shoot the basketball.

The first game between these two teams finished at 136 points (76-60). This game means very little to these two teams. 

Northern Arizona takes a lot of shots from long range, and that is their big advantage. The Lumberjacks are hitting 38.2% from 3 point range. Weber State ranks 333rd out of 363 teams in the nation in 3 point defense. 

Weber State has a big advantage in the paint. Northern Arizona lacks shot blockers and Weber State should be able to do work down low.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Southern Illinois Salukis have been a bit higher scoring in recent weeks than they were earlier in the season. Marcus Domask is an offensive star, and Domask is capable of taking over in any game. Domask had 24 points in the first meeting between these two teams. That game finished 68-66. 

The UIC Flames have had much higher scoring games than predicted especially late in the season. In fact, 13 of UIC's last 15 games have gone over this total. UIC ranks 3rd in the league in tempo. The Flames have allowed 74 points or more in each of their last four games. 

This is the final game of the regular season for both teams.  Neither team has much to play for in this one. These late season games have gone over the total at a high rate in the past. That has continued so far this season as well.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Ole Miss Rebels have an interim coach after Kermit Davis Jr. was fired this week. With Ole Miss out of the running for anything this year, I think there is a good chance they play quicker and a bit more freely. 

Ole Miss has actually seen 7 of its last 9 games finish with 141 points or more. They have really been getting out in transition with steals and getting quick scores. They should be able to do that here too against an LSU team that is poor in transition defense.

LSU has seen 6 of its last 8 games finish over this total. The Tigers have finally started shooting the ball better very recently.

There are multiple very good long term angles regarding the end of the regular season being good to over bettors in games where the two teams aren't very good. These teams have little to play for in this game, and they have just one more regular season game after this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* USF committed to playing faster this year and they have stuck to it. The Bulls are playing fast and crashing the offensive glass. That should help them a lot against an SMU team that is awful on the defensive glass. 

SMU is good at getting steals and scores in transition. USF doesn't have very good ball handlers, and they are vulnerable to pressure. 

The pace here should be frenetic. The first game finished at 162 points.

There are multiple very good long term angles regarding the end of the regular season being good to over bettors in games where the two teams aren't very good. These teams have little to play for in this game, and they have just one more regular season game after this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Portland Pilots and Pacific Tigers meet in the regular season finale tonight. 

Portland is coming off a game that was 56-53 at halftime against San Francisco last time. The Pilots have allowed 92 points or more in 3 of their last 5 games. Portland is dead last in the West Coast Conference in defensive efficiency.

Pacific is 5th in the nation in open 3 rate, and this Portland defense is allowing opponents to shoot 40.5% from 3 point range in conference play. Pacific will get a bunch of open looks here. 

The pace in this one should stay fast throughout. This is the final game of the regular season for both teams.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* SIU Edwardsville actually played pretty decent defense for a good while this season, but that has all gone out the window in recent weeks. Edwardsville has allowed 88.25 points per game in their last four games. They are really pushing the pace, and the defense has been terrible.

SE Missouri State is the fastest paced team in the OVC. The Redhawks foul a ton and Edwardsville should live on the line in this one. SE Missouri State should get a lot of quick transition opportunities off their pressure defense.

There are multiple very good long term angles regarding the end of the regular season being good to over bettors in games where the two teams aren't very good. These teams have little to play for in this game. This is their final regular season game.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Houston Christian Huskies have the single worst defense in all of college basketball. They give up a bunch of open shots and they also give up loads of second chance points. It's hard to believe they can keep being so bad on defense every year, but they have done it. 

Houston Christian is good at getting to the line and they are capable of scoring in bunches. Nicholls State is great at getting steals and getting out in transition and scoring. Houston Christian is terrible in transition defense. 

The first game between these two was 92-91. 

There are multiple very good long term angles regarding the end of the regular season being good to over bettors in games where the two teams aren't very good. These teams have little to play for in this game, and they have just one more regular season game after this one.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Charlotte 49ers are 362nd in the nation in tempo. The second slowest team in the nation. Charlotte is going to play their style of basketball, regardless of what the opposition wants to do. Rice prefers to play fast, but they have been slowed down by several teams this year. The first game between these two teams played to a very slow pace of just 62 possessions. That game stayed well under the total.

Charlotte and Rice both do a good job not allowing opponents to get to the line much, and both are good on the defensive glass. 

I think this number is a few points too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Cal State Fullerton Titans offense has really gotten it going in their last few games. Fullerton is riding high coming into this game. The single biggest strength of the Fullerton offense is their ability to get to the line at a very high rate. Now, they come into a matchup with a Bakersfield team that fouls more than any other team in the Big West Conference. Fullerton should be able to live at the line here.

Bakersfield has been more competitive at home. This spread suggests a game that could be in the fouling range late. Both of these teams have been very good from the free throw line (72.7% And 79%) in Big West play.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Arkansas State Red Wolves and LA Monroe Warhawks meet in the regular season finale for both teams on Friday night. These two teams have a history of playing higher scoring than expected games against each other. Five of the last six meetings have gone over the posted total between these two teams. Only one of the last six meetings has even stayed under 146 points. 

These two teams are both very weak on defense. They are bad teams in general, and there is no reason to expect a big effort from them in this game. The regular season doesn't matter to these teams anymore.

Both teams are above average in the league in 3 point shooting, and both defenses are terrible at defending beyond the arc. 

There are multiple very good long term angles regarding the end of the regular season being good to over bettors in games where the two teams aren't very good. These teams have little to play for in this game, and they have just one more regular season game after this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Hampton Pirates and Monmouth Hawks have been awful this season. Hampton pushes the pace, and the first game between these two was played to their preferred tempo. 

Monmouth's offense has been slightly better in recent weeks, and they are up against a terrible defense here.

These two are at the bottom of the CAA standings. This game means very little to either team, and I think that will help the offenses get more open looks here. 

There are multiple very good long term angles regarding the end of the regular season being good to over bettors in games where the two teams aren't very good. These teams have little to play for in this game, and they have just one more regular season game after this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The first meeting between these two finished 87-82. St. Francis (PA) shoots the 3 ball extremely well, and Fairleigh Dickinson is 361st out of 363 teams in the country in 3 point defense. 

Fairleigh Dickinson's offense has been really efficient this year, and they are good at pushing the pace. They should be able to generate plenty of quick steals and scores here against a St. Francis team that hasn't been good in transition defense.

Both offenses should get to the line a lot with both defenses struggling to defend without fouling.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns are a unique team in the Sun Belt. This is a league with a lot of teams who aren't very efficient on offense. Louisiana is first in the Sun Belt in offensive efficiency. The Ragin' Cajuns are also pretty quick paced. Louisiana is 4th in the league in average possession length.

Arkansas State is 13th out of 14 teams in the league in defensive efficiency. The Red Wolves allowed 80 points to Louisiana at home earlier this year. I don't think they'll be able to slow them down here in Louisiana either. 

Louisiana's defense is 10th in the Sun Belt in defensive efficiency. 

Both teams are good at getting to the free throw line, and both of these teams foul a bunch. There should be a lot of points scored with the clock stopped here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Georgia State Panthers really tried to slow the game down a lot earlier in the season. Toward the end of the season, this Georgia State team has played quite a bit quicker. They are no longer locking teams down on the defensive end either.

Appalachian State has been much worse defensively in their last few games. In fact, Appalachian State has allowed 74 points or more in each of their last three games. The Mountaineers held Georgia State to 59 in their first meeting, but Georgia State only got to the line 7 times in that game. They should get to the line more here.

There are multiple very good long term angles regarding the end of the regular season being good to over bettors in games where the two teams aren't very good. These teams have little to play for in this game, and they have just one more regular season game after this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* East Tennessee State won the first meeting between these two teams 96-74. Both teams shot the ball really well from 3 point range in that one, so I don't expect that high of a total here. Still, this number has dipped and the tempo should be relatively quick.

I don't see any reason to expect either team to be very concerned about playing tough defense here. Neither defense is very good to begin with, and both of these teams have had a really disappointing season and they are playing out the string in the regular season. 

There are multiple very good long term angles regarding the end of the regular season being good to over bettors in games where the two teams aren't very good. These teams have little to play for in this game, and they have just one more regular season game after this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Youngstown State Penguins have a very good offense, but I think they are due for at least some regression. Youngstown State has played the 338th toughest slate of defenses this year, so their numbers are at least somewhat skewed. 

Youngstown State relies on getting to the basket a lot. They are up against a Robert Morris team that is first in the Horizon League in 2 point FG percentage defense. Robert Morris is second in the league in blocked shots percentage. 

Robert Morris slows the tempo down. They rank 9th in the Horizon League in average tempo. They are 2nd in defensive efficiency and just 8th in offensive efficiency.

Neither team gets to the line much and neither team fouls much at all. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Detroit Titans have Antoine Davis trying to beat Pistol Pete Maravich's scoring record. It will take a lot of points in each of his last few games. Davis is going to take a bunch of shots in this one. Davis likes to shoot it from long range, and IUPUI is the ideal matchup for a 3 point shooter. This IUPUI defense ranks in the bottom 15 in the country in 3 point defense. IUPUI overall is 359th out of 363 in the country in defensive efficiency. 

Detroit put up 89 points on IUPUI in the first game and that was without Gerald Liddell down low. Liddell is an elite offensive rebounder, and IUPUI is terrible on the defensive glass.

IUPUI's pace has picked up of late. On the season overall, they are playing about 4 possessions per game faster than a year ago. The Jaguars have a pretty good scorer in Jlynn Counter. 

Look for Detroit to push for points for Davis here, and that should lead to quite a few points on the board overall.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Portland State Vikings are all about pushing the pace. The first game between Weber State and Portland State played to a pace of 76 possessions. The final score was 84-68 in that one.

The Big Sky Conference is well known as a conference where there isn't much defense played. This is a late season game between two teams who aren't going to win the conference. In game 25 of the season or later with a total of 145 or lower, Big Sky overs are north of 60% in the last 8 years.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Jacksonville Dolphins beat the Lipscomb Bison 51-44 in their first meeting this year. I was on the under in that game, and I'm on the under again here. Jacksonville is elite at a couple things 1. Slowing down the pace of the game and 2. Defending beyond the 3 point line. 

Lipscomb relies heavily on shooting it from long range. The Bison are much improved themselves on the defensive end too. Jacksonville isn't efficient on offense and they are using more than 20 seconds per possession on offense. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Tulane Green Wave rank top five in the nation in tempo. Ron Hunter's team has really leaned into their pressing style this year. Tulane has gotten far more aggressive on offense as well. They have some great free throw shooters, which could be really important here since USF fouls at the highest rate of any team in the AAC. Tulane is shooting a whopping 79.92% from the free throw line as a team.

USF has indeed picked up their pace as well. The Bulls should get a lot of second chance points against the unique Tulane zone defense that struggles to grab defensive rebounds.

A really fast paced game.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The first time these two met it was 65-36 Cal State Fullerton. The Cal Poly offense is dreadful, but their defense has been giving many teams in the Big West a difficult time. 

These two teams both rank among the the 50 slowest paced teams in the country. There is nothing to suggest this game will be played at anything but a very slow pace.

Fullerton has been elite defensively on their home floor. The Titans offense has actually been better on the road as well.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The FIU Golden Panthers and the MTSU Blue Raiders are both pressing quite a bit. In the first meeting the game sailed over the total because of a lot of steals and quick scores in transition. Both teams are poor in transition defense, and both of these teams will get steals from their aggressive pressure.

MTSU has played five games in a row that have gone over this total. The Blue Raiders offense is really clicking right now. FIU is the fastest paced offense in the conference.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Toledo has one of the most efficient offenses in the country. The Rockets are 14th in the nation in offensive efficiency and 19th in effective field goal percentage offense. They are up against a Bowling Green team who is 334th in defensive efficiency in the country. Toledo put up 91 points in the first game between these two. Toledo has scored 91, 96, and 91 points in the last three meetings with Bowling Green.

The Bowling Green Falcons have been able to be more competitive at home this year. They are all about running and gunning so they'll keep the tempo moving here. Bowling Green shoots the 3 ball well and Toledo struggled to defend the 3.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Missouri State Bears have been a tremendous under team this year. Missouri State is excellent at controlling the pace. They are also very good defensively and they don't give up many second chance points. Missouri State has gone under this total in regulation in 9 of their last 10 games.

Northern Iowa has played some higher scoring teams in the MVC recently, but Missouri State is the best under team in the league right now and I think there is line value here based on N Iowa's recent higher scoring games.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* One of the better late regular season totals angles has been taking a game between two teams who have a poor record and little to play for and bet the over. That has been especially true if it is a low total. That fits perfectly in this game. These two teams are last and second to last in the Sun Belt standings.

Georgia State has played quite a bit quicker in their last five or six games than what they did the rest of the season. Arkansas State does play slowly, but their defense isn't good. 

I think this total is a few points too low.

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Merrimack Warriors rank 362nd out of 363 teams in the country in offensive efficiency. Merrimack takes a lot of contested jumpers that are low percentage looks. On the other end of the floor, Merrimack is fantastic on defense. Their unique full court zone pressure actually substantially slows the pace of the game. 

Sacred Heart plays much quicker than Merrimack in general, but they have had to slow their pace down a lot in recent meetings with Merrimack. Sacred Heart's defense is a lot better than it was a year ago. 

The first meeting between these two teams was 59-55 and it played to a pace of only 63 possessions. KenPom is projecting 130 points (safely under the number) here, but he is also projecting a pace of 68 possessions. I think that is a little too fast. 

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Stonehill Skyhawks have been playing some very good defense of late. Stonehill is second in the conference allowing just 0.94 points per possession. Stonehill has allowed 61 points or fewer in five straight contests. They have been mixing up the defenses nicely. On offense, Stonehill is 344th out of 363 teams in offensive efficiency. They have also been playing at a very slow pace of late.

Central Connecticut State is one of the slowest paced teams in the league. They rank fourth in defensive efficiency in the league as well. This is an offense that ranks 319th out of 363 in efficiency.

The first meeting between these two was 51-49 and played to a very slow pace of 58.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Loyola Marymount Lions pulled the massive upset in Spokane the first time these two teams met this year. Gonzaga will try to get revenge on the road here.

Loyola Marymount made it a point to slow the game down to a crawl in that first meeting and it worked. Gonzaga has played 26 games so far this year. Their first game against Loyola Marymount was played to the slowest tempo of any of their games so far this year. Why would Loyola not go with the same game plan here? I expect the Lions to try their hardest to keep this game in the halfcourt as much as possible.

Gonzaga has had some high scoring games lately, which has bumped this total up to a level that is several points too high in my opinion. If the Bulldogs shoot lights out this will lose, but I think the pace will be slower than the analytical sites are projecting.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oregon State Beavers have settled into the role of a team stalling and attempting to be competitive in ugly low scoring contests. It worked when they pulled off the big upset over USC in their last game. Oregon State has seen six of their last eight games stay under this very low total. This is a team that takes a lot of bad jump shots and they are likely to struggle to score against a high quality Washington State defense.

Washington State has scored 52 and 56 points in their last couple games. The Cougars have been fantastic on defense though. They have held five of their last nine opponents to 58 points or less. 

A slow pace and an ugly game. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UCF Knights have played much differently in recent weeks. Their average tempo has gone up quite a bit. Their offensive efficiency numbers are up a good amount as well. UCF has allowed 77 points or more in 5 of their last 8 games. 

Memphis is playing much faster than they did a year ago. The Tigers are also clearly more efficient on offense than a year ago. Penny Hardaway's team doesn't have as many great shot blockers, and their defense is down some from last year. Memphis should be able to dictate the tempo here as the home favorite. Their pressure should cause turnovers and scores.

Both teams are great on the offensive glass and very weak on the defensive boards. 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The San Diego State Aztecs are much better on offense than they have been in recent seasons. San Diego State was 167th in offensive efficiency last year. They are 31st so far this year. Matt Bradley is still the star, but he has gotten a lot more help this year. Transfers in of Trammell and Ledee have helped a lot. Adam Seiko is 39/80 from 3 point range as well.

Fresno State's defense was elite last year. It is no longer excellent. Fresno State was 37th in defensive efficiency last year. They are 104th this year. The Bulldogs give up too many second chance points, and San Diego State will take advantage of that weakness.

This extremely low total is usually just for games between two very poor offenses. That isn't the case in this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Binghamton Bearcats are the second slowest paced team in the America East Conference. Binghamton is also third in defensive efficiency in the conference. NJIT has been a slow paced team historically. They are playing a bit faster this year than in the last couple years, but they have still been slower than an average team. 

NJIT is 337th in offensive efficiency in the country. This is a team that consistently takes some really bad shots. They are second to last in the conference in FTA/FGA. On defense, NJIT is good at defending without fouling and grabbing defensive boards.

Binghamton is #1 in effective FG percentage defense in league play.

The last four times these teams have played after regulation the games have been: 130 total points, 121, 123, and 122 points.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Creighton Blue Jays have been fantastic on defense in the last few weeks. Creighton is 12th in the nation in defensive efficiency on the season. They played without star big man Ryan Kalkbrenner for a few games earlier in the season, and their defense was much worse without him. The 7'1 Kalkbrenner is an elite shot blocker and defensive rebounder. 

Providence relies heavily on offensive rebounds and getting to the line on offense. Creighton is first in the nation in free throws allowed per 100 trips up the court. They don't foul much at all. Creighton is also 17th out of 363 in the country in defensive rebounding percentage.

The Providence will switch around from man to zone and even the 1-3-1 zone occasionally with Ed Cooley. Creighton hasn't been very efficient of late on offense. 

This is a critical game for both teams with it being late in the season and both teams still in the Big East title race. The bigger the game late in the regular season it is helpful for an under in the long run.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Morehead State Eagles lost at home to Southeast Missouri State 91-86 earlier this year. I had the over in that game, and I'm going to back the over again here. 

These two teams have a history of playing very high scoring games against each other. Both of these teams are aggressive and look to get to the basket a lot. There have been a bunch of foul shots in their recent meetings.

SE Missouri State has seen 10 of its last 12 games go over this total. The two that stayed below both hit at least 140 points. They are the fastest paced team in the league by a large margin. 

Morehead State is hitting 38.8% from three point range in OVC action. SE Missouri State is allowing opponents to shoot 40.4% from three point range in league play.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The George Washington Colonials have the worst defense in the A10 and it isn't very close. George Washington is 326th in the nation in defensive efficiency. They gave up 87 against Loyola Chicago on the road. They allowed 85 against Fordham on the road. They alloweed 75 at George Mason (a mediocre offense). 

St. Joe's lost 92-91 in OT in the first meeting between these two. That game went over the total comfortably in regulation, and the tempo was very quick. St. Joe's is 87th in the nation in tempo and George Washington is 92nd. The pace will be there again. 

St. Joe's should get a lot of open looks from 3 in this one. George Washington should get to the line quite a bit too.

The pace and efficiency matches up here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Marquette Golden Eagles have been an excellent offensive team all year. UConn slowed them down in their last game, but the Huskies defense is light years better than this Georgetown Hoyas defense which is just dreadful.

Marquette ranks first in shot selection in the country. The Golden Eagles are a top 15 team in terms of average possession length. They are pushing the pace. Look for Marquette to get a lot of easy looks against this Hoyas defense that is allowing 1.15 points per possession in league play.

Georgetown's offense is capable with Primo Spears as a good playmaker in the backcourt. They'll likely be playing catch up and have to keep pushing their pace.

The first game was 95-73 and it wasn't a fluke.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Southeast Missouri State is pushing the tempo to the extreme this year. They started the season playing quickly, and they have sped up even more as the season has gone along. Their games in the OVC have played to an average tempo of 75 possessions. They have seen six of their last eight games finish with 161 points or more.

Tennessee State prefers to play quickly as well, and they are 318th in defensive efficiency in the nation. Southeast Missouri State is first in the OVC in offensive efficiency. Tennessee State should live on the line here with the way Southeast Missouri State fouls. 

The last few meetings between these two have played to an average pace of about 75.5 possessions per game. I think this one is a track meet.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Western Illinois Leathernecks and UMKC Roos meet in a fairly meaningless Summit League matchup on Thursday night. After this game only four regular season contests are left for these two teams. Both of these teams are out of the running for the Summit League regular season title. 

Late season games between two teams who aren't highly motivated have gone toward the over in the last decade. 

The Summit League has been a tremendous "over" league in the past decade too. Blindly betting overs in this league would have you at better than 56%.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Merrimack Warriors rank first in defensive efficiency in the Northeast Conference. They also rank second in the NEC in effective field goal percentage defense.

Stonehill ranks second in the NEC in defensive efficiency. They rank first in the NEC in effective field goal percentage defense.

These are clearly the top two defenses in the league. 

The two teams rank 334th and 362nd in offensive efficiency in the nation. Both play at a slightly slower than average tempo as well.

The first game between these two finished at 106 points. Merrimack relies heavily on getting to the line to score, but Stonehill doesn't foul much at all. Stonehill relies on long range shots, but Merrimack is first in the league in 3 point defense.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The USF Bulls and Memphis Tigers already met once this season. Memphis won a 93-86 track meet of a game. That game was played to a whopping 83 possessions. The Tigers shot 35 free throws and the Bulls shot 22 free throws. The teams combined to have 31 offensive rebounds.

Memphis always wants to run. The Tigers are 10th in average possession length this year. This Memphis team isn't settling for long distance shots as much either. They are taking it to the basket. USF lacks a shot blocker to deter them from getting to the basket here. 

USF changed their style of play this year. This team has previously wanted to play slowly, but Brian Gregory was very adamant that they would push the pace this year and they indeed have done just that. USF is averaging 71.8 possessions per game in the AAC. 

Look for both teams to live on the line here with the way both teams foul. The second chance opportunities will be high again. Barring some very poor shooting I think this gets past the total. I believe this one is several points too low. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* This is a game that will be played at a slow pace. I understand the total here needs to be set pretty low. I still think this total is a little too low. 

A total in the mid 120's is usually reserved for only matchups between two teams who are excellent on defense. These teams aren't great on defense. In fact, both of them are outside the top 100 in defensive efficiency. 

San Jose State is top 75 in the nation in offensive efficiency. Fresno State has sped up their tempo a bit in recent games. The first meeting between these two was 74-64. I think this one likely tops 130 as well.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Marquette Golden Eagles always want to push the pace. Marquette is 12th in average possession length on the season. The Golden Eagles are also an impressive 4th in offensive efficiency. Shaka Smart's are 2nd in shot selection so it hasn't been a fluke. 

UConn is looking for revenge here, and the Huskies offenses has some clear advantages in this game. The Huskies are excellent on the offensive glass, and Marquette gives up a lot of second chance points. UConn has a big height advantage down low, and I think Sanogo and company can have a big game in this one.

The first game got to 158 points total, and there really wasn't anything about that one that stands out as an outlier.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Missouri Valley Conference is known for having a lot of teams who play slowly. These two teams are second to last and last in the league in tempo. They are also both above average on defense. It helps that they are both below average on offense as well.

The first game between these two finished 61-57. Shot Quality believes it should have finished 61-55 so it was no fluke that it was low scoring. 

Missouri State has seen 7 of 13 MVC games stay under this very low total in regulation. Southern Illinois has seen 5 stay under this total overall. 

Neither team gets to the line much and both teams have struggled with wasted possessions from turnovers this year.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* I think the Kansas State tempo change has been underrated by many. The Wildcats are easily the fastest paced team in the Big 12 under Jerome Tang this year. Texas is third in tempo, and they have actually played faster since Chris Beard has been gone.

The first game between these two was the ridiculous 116-103 win in Austin for Kansas State. I certainly don't expect an NBA score this time, but I do think this total is set too low. I have this being a game that gets into the 150's. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Merrimack Warriors rank 361st out of 363 teams in the country in offensive efficiency. This team settles for too many contested jumpers. They tend to play slowly as well. Merrimack ranks 288th in overall tempo. Merrimack is excellent on defense though. They have the best defense in the Northeast Conference. Joe Gallo's team runs a unique zone that both slows the game down and keeps opponents out of their normal offenses. 

St. Francis (PA) is relying on hitting a bunch of shots from long range, and Merrimack is best in the conference at defending the 3 ball. St. Francis also doesn't get many second chances, and that is the one weakness of Merrimack (defensive rebounding) on defense. 

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* Madison Square Garden hosts this key Big Ten matchup. This is one of the best under venues in college basketball. The first game between these two finished at 127 with some nonsense at the end that led to 9 points in the final 40 seconds of a game that wasn't close. With a tough shooting background and two tough defenses I like the chances of this one staying lower scoring.

Take the under in this early tipoff. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Northwestern Wildcats defense has slipped a lot in Big Ten play. In fact, they are 14th in the Big Ten in effective field goal percentage defense. Their biggest problem is giving up far too many easy looks from 3 point range. 

Michigan is more than capable of nailing some shots from long range. Michigan was 10/22 from 3 point range in their 85-78 win over NW a few weeks ago. The Wolverines will try to push the pace here in this one as well.

Northwestern has a history of starting faster in the season and sliding late in the year under Chris Collins. The Wildcats defense is typically what has worsened during the year. We're seeing that pattern again this year. Boo Buie is a good leader on offense and the Wildcats should be able to get some good looks on offense. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Wagner Seahawks have been a straight under team of late. You have to go back to December 3rd to find a Division One Wagner contest that finished with a total higher than 131 points. That is 11 straight games staying under this total against DI opponents. Wagner is second in the league in defense and second worst in offense. Their single huge weakness on defense is fouling too much, but Sacred Heart is bottom 40 in the country in getting to the line.

Sacred Heart is much better defensively this year than they have been the last couple seasons. They do try to play quicker, but they aren't efficient on offense.

The first game finished 68-58. I think a total in the upper 120's would have made sense here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The first meeting between these two finished 59-48. UNC Greensboro has been absolutely locking teams down with their defense of late. The Spartans are a really athletic team that plays great help defense. 

Mercer has been without Kamar Robertson the last couple games due to an injury and he is questionable here. Even with Robertson the offense is a big weakness and without him they are really bad. Mercer has been drastically slowing down their pace of late.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Rutgers Scarlet Knights are very good on defense in general. They are fantastic when playing on their home floor. Rutgers has a big home court advantage, and Steve Pikiell's team has been winning because of defense. Rutgers is 2nd in the nation (behind only Tennessee) in defensive efficiency. 

Minnesota has been without Dawson Garcia in their last two games, and he is questionable for this game. The Golden Gophers are averaging just 0.933 points per possession in Big Ten play. The Golden Gophers are 296th in overall tempo, so they do slow the game down quite a bit.

Rutgers has been at their best defensively at home against quality competition. They have played seven top 100 teams at home so far this year. They have allowed more than 57 points in regulation only one time. That was Iowa who scored a lot on them, but Minnesota's offense is nothing like Iowa.

Rutgers is allowing just 0.79 points per possession at home against top 100 opponents. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Missouri State Bears are the slowest paced team in the Missouri Valley Conference. Missouri State is 350th out of 363 teams in the nation in tempo. The Bears have seen 8 of 12 games in the conference stay under this total in regulation. All 8 of those have been 127 points or lower, so there has been some margin there as well.

Missouri State's biggest strength on offensive is their ability to get offensive rebounds. Valparaiso is the 24th best defensive rebounding team in the league. I think they can neutralize much of the Bears presence on the offensive glass.

Valparaiso is using up 18.3 seconds on an average possession in the league, so they have been slowing things down too. 

From an effective field goal percentage standpoint, both of these teams are better on defense than offense.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Ohio Bobcats are 2nd in average possession length in the MAC. They attempt to push the pace. Eastern Michigan is 4th in average possession length and 2nd in overall tempo in the MAC. This should be a fast paced contest.

Eastern Michigan has shot the ball horribly from 3 point range. They should positively regress from long range in the end. This is a team that is shooting just 24% from 3 point range in MAC play. They will finish better than that in league play. Emoni Bates is a tough matchup.

Ohio's offense gets inside the paint a lot, and Eastern Michigan is bottom 20 in the nation at defending the paint. Eastern Michigan gives up all kinds of second chance points and Ohio thrives on the offensive boards.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* Cal Poly has been a very good under team this year. The Mustangs have seen 7 of their last 11 games against Division One opponents finish at 124 points or fewer.  Cal Poly is 330th in tempo in the country. They are also 332nd in offensive efficiency. They are last in trips to the charity stripe in the Big West. Cal Poly has been riddled by wasted possessions due to non steal turnovers on offense this year.

Cal State Fullerton is third in the Big West in defensive efficiency. They just held a good UC Irvine team to 61 points in a win. They are reliant on the three point shot falling on offense, and this is a quality Cal Poly defense when it comes to defending beyond the arc.

A slow pace and a sloppy game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Gonzaga Bulldogs just beat Portland 115-75 recently. They beat them 104-72 last year. Portland really struggles to defend the 3 point line, and they don't have a shot blocker inside either. The Bulldogs should be able to get out in transition against this Portland team.

Portland's offense has been much more efficient at home. The Pilots should find open looks here against a Gonzaga defense that has been really weak this year. Gonzaga ranks in the bottom half of the country in effective field goal percentage defense and shot selection allowed.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Texas Longhorns have an interim coach in Rodney Terry who seems to be pushing the tempo a bit more than Chris Beard was. Texas has had a bunch of very high scoring games of late. Texas is 29th in average possession length this year, so they are really moving. In their last 12 games, 10 of them have finished at 134 points or higher. Texas is better on offense than defense this year.

The Tennessee defense is excellent, but they appear due for at least some regression. The Volunteers also commit quite a few fouls, and Texas has been getting to the line a lot lately. I think Texas can put some scoring pressure on them.

Tennessee has the edge from beyond the arc in this game on offense.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* This Nicholls State team is much different than last year's team. Nicholls is playing almost 6 possessions per game slower in league play than they did a year ago. They have played the 62nd toughest slate of offenses this year. They have faced only the 201st toughest slate of defenses so far this season.

Incarnate Word has always been one of the slower paced teams in the Southland Conference. Incarnate Word is 342nd in offensive efficiency in the country. 

Both of these teams struggle with good offensive rebounding teams, but neither of these teams have been good on the offensive glass this year.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Drexel Dragons and Elon Phoenix already played once this year. That was a very slow 59 possession game where Drexel won 62-50. This might be a tick faster, but I still expect a very slow tempo. 

Elon is 338th in effective field goal percentage offense. The Phoenix have all sorts of issues getting open looks. They are gradually slowing their tempo as the season has moved along. They don't get to the line much or get many second chance points.

Drexel is 61st in effective field goal percentage defense in the country. The Dragons are coming off a terrible second half performance against North Carolina A&T last game and I think they'll be better here. They are great at defending without fouling.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Eastern Michigan Eagles have been putting up big numbers even with their secondary guys in Farrakhan and Acuff shooting the ball far worse than their career averages from the 3 point line. I think their numbers regress positively toward the mean from long distance. Emoni Bates is a matchup nightmare for everyone in the MAC. The problem for E Michigan is their defense is just atrocious. They give up all kinds of second chance points, and their defense in the paint is awful.

Miami Ohio has been better at home, while the Eastern Michigan offense has been more efficient on the road. 

Miami shoots 79.4% from the line and E Michigan is bottom 45 in the country in FTA/FGA defensively. E Michigan shoots 74.5% and Miami has committed more fouls in MAC play than any other team.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Stetson Hatters have improved their offensive efficiency a great deal this year. Stetson has 3 guys on their team getting a bunch of minutes who all shoot 41% or higher from 3 point range. Stetson is going to put up a bunch of shots from long range, and Queens has struggled badly defending beyond the arc this year. 

Queens has been a great over team this season. They are 79th in tempo. They are also 31st in effective field goal percentage offense and 302nd in the nation on defense. The Royals have seen 4 of their last 5 games finish at 166 points or more. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Abilene Christian Wildcats have the fastest average possession length in the conference, and it isn't very close. This team is using full court pressure and trying to get out in transition where they are more efficient. Grand Canyon no longer has great ball handlers with Blacksher injured. 

Grand Canyon is playing a bit faster this year. They are also much more efficient on offense. Grand Canyon put up 95 points in their game against Abilene last year. The Antelopes of Grand Canyon are worse on defense this season. They aren't nearly as good at defending the long range jumper. 

Grand Canyon's last three games finished at 150 points or higher. Eight of their last nine have shot quality expected scores of at least 139 points.

Take the over.