The Argentina vs Spain World Cup final has every opportunity to end Under 2.5 goals. Final matches almost always involve less risk than typical tournament games. Neither team will want to be the first to give up a big chance, so the first half could turn into a showcase of possession, spacing and defending counterattacks over committing numbers forward.

Spain’s defensive prowess throughout the tournament is the most important factor supporting the Under bet. La Roja has conceded just one goal over seven matches, tallying six clean sheets on its way to the final. Spain dominated France defensively in the semifinal, winning 2-0 and demonstrating an ability to dictate play with possession while still protecting its back line. Argentina has Lionel Messi and some other weapons, but this is easily the most complete defense it will have faced in Spain.

Spain’s ability to keep possession will also limit total-scoring chances. When Spain has the ball for extended periods, the opponent is forced to sit back and rarely gets opportunities to mount attacks. Spain has averaged 56% possession in knockout-stage minutes where it has led the game, proving that it can play for draws rather than trying to run up the score.

Argentina has also shown that it can play a waiting game if needed. The reigning champs haven’t panicked during close matches and know how to strike at the right moment. They were behind England for most of the semifinal before scoring twice late to win 2-1, but Spain will likely force them to be more patient. Argentina will know that giving up midfield dominance can open up space for Lamine Yamal and the rest of Spain’ attack to hurt them on the counter.

A low-scoring affair fits with how both teams will approach the matchup tactically. Expect Argentina to sit deep with a compact shape, defend the middle of the field and force Spain to play around the edge of the box. Spain will do everything in its power to limit Messi from receiving the ball in central positions where he is most dangerous. Such a game would have a lot of possession without many scoring chances.

Even the stakes of the match point towards Under betting. Spain is playing for its first World Cup victory since 2010, while Argentina would become the first back-to-back winner since Brazil in 1962 if it triumphs on Sunday. Both teams know what’s on the line and should focus on defensive structure instead of making game-changing mistakes.

Jim's Play: 225627. Argentina/Spain UNDER  (Soccer Total of the Year)

The WNBA matchup featuring the league’s two highest-scoring offenses has strong potential to surpass Saturday’s total. Indiana averages 93.2 points per game, which is tops in the league, and New York checks in at 85.6 points per game. The Liberty and Fever combined to score 178.8 points per game this season, which is already more than four points above the betting line.

Indiana has primary shootout responsibility. The Fever own the league’s best offensive rating and rank third in terms of pace. Fresh off her record-setting 45-point, 10-assist performance in Indiana’s 110-107 win against Seattle, Caitlin Clark will look to push the pace and can consistently create for herself and others early in the shot clock with driving layups and three-pointers. Clark’s speed and playmaking skills will give any Fever matchup a high offensive ceiling.

Indiana’s defense also sets up the Over in this spot. The Fever allow opponents to score 89 points per game and rank in the bottom half of the league defensively. The numbers tilt heavily in New York’s favor offensively because of players like Breanna Stewart, Sabrina Ionescu and Jonquel Jones. Stewart and Jones will look to attack the paint early, whereas Ionescu can punish Indiana’s defense if they collapse around the rim.

Lastly, the Liberty present defensive concerns as well. New York has been without substantial wing depth due to injuries and changes to the rotation have coincided with opponents shooting a higher percentage from three-point range. While tough travel situations often lead to slow starts, poor defense travels well. New York has also struggled to assemble a consistent lineup recently, winning just two of its last nine games. This makes defensive communication paramount against Clark and an Indiana offense that loves to attack in transition and create defensive rotations.

Both offenses rank among the WNBA leaders in points per game. The over/under projects comfortably into the 170s, and there are legitimate paths to see this game reach 180 or more on Saturday. .

Jim's Play: 635. NY Liberty / Ind Fever OVER 

A busy France-England third-place game could hit the scoreboard often enough to push the Over, especially Over 3 goals. The stage sets up for a match much more wide open than your typical World Cup elimination game. Since neither team advances to the final, both managers can be aggressive with rotations and allow their attackers freedom. Playing for third place has historically led to run-and-gun soccer, and you’ll find multiple current previews predicting another tournament-high scoring affair.

France boasts plenty of attacking firepower on its own. Kylian Mbappe continues to hunt for World Cup scoring title and thus should have extra incentive to attack rather than soak up pressure. France can also deploy speedsters like Ousmane Dembele, Desire Doue and Michael Olise around him to create 1-v-1 advantages throughout the frontline. England won’t be able to track every attacking option if it rotates its backline or pushes fullbacks upfield.

England will likely have scoring chances too. The Three Lions put up three goals against Mexico and two goals against Norway during the knockout stages while playing against two decent defenses. England possesses their own attacking stars in Harry Kane, Jude Bellingham and several dynamic players on the wings who can punish French defenses. Les Bleus may even have to abandon their preferred defensive lineup if both teams rotate heavily. England proved against Mexico how quickly a game can swing open once the first goal kicks off.

England hasn’t been shut down entirely during this tournament. The team conceded at least once in each knockout match while surrendering five goals combined between Mexico, Norway and Argentina. France fared better defensively heading into the semifinals, but Spain beat them twice. France may roll out a shaky defensive unit if it elects to rotate heavily. Unfamiliar defenders struggling to cover fast-paced attackers has historically led to breakdowns and high quality chances.

Goal flow will likely be high too. Whoever scores first would be forced to throw numbers forward in order to chase the game, as sitting on a 1-0 or 2-1 lead offers little consolation for finishing third. England finally got rolling offensively in the second half of its Round of 16 match before coasting to a 3-2 win. France has scored first in three of its five matches this tournament, meaning Mbappe would have room on the counter if England strikes early. Frequent substitutions on both sides could open up more space if attacking players enter the game fresh while the backline loses steam. Goal flow and lack of rotations have been two of the main reasons I like this total over. 

 France and England both have strong reasons to finish this World Cup on the right note. Both squads possess multiple elite attackers capable of breaking the game open at any moment. As long as neither manager feels the need to bunker down for the entire match, this game has a formulaic path to at least four goals.

Jim's Play: 225623. England/France OVER 

The Under appeals when the Mets and Phillies match up left-handed starters who can contain damage while pumping strikeouts. Philadelphia’s starter Jesus Luzardo is 8-4 with a 3.51 ERA and 136 strikeouts over 110 innings. Luzardo’ stat line gets even better when you realize his 2.84 FIP is lower than his ERA.

Luzardo dominated the Reds for seven scoreless innings prior to the All-Star break, striking out 11 along the way. Luzardo has surrendered just nine home runs this season, which will be key at Citizens Bank Park. Luzardo can pound the strike zone when he gets ahead in the count to quiet down New York’ two biggest left-handed bats, along with preventing the Mets from stringing together big innings.

Sean Manaea will take the mound for New York with a 4.56 ERA that seems worse than he actually performed. Manaea’s 4.14 FIP would indicate he’s actually pitched better than his ERA would indicate. Manaea has struck out 74 batters in 75 innings, while also limiting opponents to just 10 home runs. The Phillies lineup is loaded with left-handed bats like Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper, so Manaea’ southpaw stuff should give New York an edge against Philly’ order at critical points in the game. 

Offense may not be too big of a factor for either team. The Mets are just 8-19 against left-handed starters, so Luzardo will likely have another tough matchup against a Mets lineup that loves to mash Juan Soto and wait for home runs. Soto may not even play at full strength as he exited Thursday’ game with calf soreness.

Mets reliever Luke Weaver has yet to allow an earned run since April 30. In that stretch he has struck out 35 hitters over 27 innings. Should Manaea go five innings keeping the game close, New York’ bullpen has the arms to prevent Phillies hitters from spinning around on too many arms deep in the game.

Luzardo has been pitching like an All-Star and Mets have struggled against lefties all year. Add in Manaea’ platoon advantage against multiple Phillies power bats and I like this game to stay Under the Total. 

Jim's Play: 903. Mets / Phillies UNDER 

The Minnesota Twins and Chicago Cubs can both hit over Saturday’s game total with some regularity. That’s likely for a few reasons, as the starting pitching matchup seems stronger than the pitchers’ records indicate and warm afternoon temperatures at Wrigley Field should allow the ball to carry.

Chicago will turn to Matthew Boyd to start Saturday’ game. Boyd has an ERA just above 5.00 entering the matchup at 5.05. Boyd is a fly ball pitcher who can miss bats, but he hasn’t gone inning after inning without giving up hard contact or falling victim to an inning-sinker. Minnesota also showed some pop in Friday’s series opener thanks to Ryan Jeffers’ three-run homer, leading the team to a 5-2 win. The Twins won three games in a row and should be playing with some momentum after clubbing five runs off Chicago’ pitching staff.

Taj Bradley will go for Minnesota on Saturday. Bradley has compiled a shiny 9-3 record with a 3.59 ERA on the season. The ERA is solid, but Bradley’s 3.93 FIP suggests he has gotten some good luck along the way. Bradley is dangerous when he has his command and can overpower hitters, but he struggles when he falls behind and has to throw strikes to hitters. The Cubs have enough power to score throughout the lineup and that’s a problem against Bradley if Chicago draws early counts.

Chicago also matches up nicely against a Twins bullpen that has been compromised by several major transactions. Minnesota’s bullpen was gutted during last season’s fire sale and the Twins don’t have many reliable late-inning options behind their starters. Bradley could give Minnesota manager staff five or six innings of solid work, but the Cubs will have chances to tack on runs against the middle relievers.

Chicago might also come out with more of a sense of urgency after losing Friday’s opener. The Cubs stranded runners throughout the game, managing just two runs total despite having a man on late in multiple innings. Chicago also loaded the bases with one out in the ninth inning and had the tying run on deck. That should spur some aggression against Bradley and Minnesota has enough power to capitalize on Boyd missing his spots. Both offenses have the ability to reach four runs, which will likely be necessary with how high the total is set.

Jim's Play: 917. Twins/Cubs OVER

The BC Lions and Edmonton Elks can each score enough touchdowns to cover Friday’s  total as both teams have established aerial explosiveness and rushing threat. The total is high, but the first regular-season meeting between the two teams already produced 58 points in BC’s 34-24 win. Both offenses left points on the field as well.

BC has the offensive firepower to do its part. The Lions boast the best yardage production in the CFL at 454 yards per game, and Nathan Rourke tossed for 320 yards in the first matchup. James Butler added 135 yards and two touchdowns on the ground to give BC weapons in all areas, keeping Edmonton’s defense honest. BC is coming off a bye week and should have had time to clean up whatever issues it encountered in its lone game against Edmonton’s defense less than two weeks ago.

Edmonton has the firepower to strike back, too. Cody Fajardo enters the contest with 1,499 yards and eight touchdowns through the air, while Justin Rankin leads the CFL with 513 yards and seven total touchdowns on the ground. Rankin is a nightmare to defend because he is a strong runner and pass catcher. He tallied 107 yards on the ground and 100 yards receiving in Edmonton’s 40-point outburst against Ottawa. He can create mismatches for BC, which has allowed over 34 points per game.

Short fields and quick scores could come into play as well. Edmonton’s defense ranks first in interceptions and fumble recoveries, so takeaways will give the Elks short fields to work with. Of course, BC can capitalize on Edmonton playing aggressively for those takeaways if Rourke connects with his receivers deep downfield. The Elks have big-play ability through their return game and Rankin.

Both offenses should be able to move the ball, which bodes well for the over as well. Edmonton is motivated to play aggressive after losing in the first matchup, and if it builds a lead, BC will likely have to put the game in Rourke’s arms and pass more often. If BC jumps out early, Edmonton scored 24 points in the fourth quarter against Ottawa and has the offense to make up deficits with Fajardo.

There is concern that the total is a rather high number to reach, especially considering Edmonton is allowing the fewest points in the league at 24.2 and four of its first five games finished Under the total. However, BC leads the CFL in yardage, Edmonton scored 40 against Ottawa and 58 points went through in the first meeting. Both of those games provide a path to the low 60s.

Jim's Play: 679. BC Lions / Edm Elks OVER

I like the Seattle Storm and Indiana Fever meeting on Friday to hit the Over. Indiana currently has one of the highest-scoring offenses in the WNBA, averaging 93.2 points per game this season and 97 ppg over their last three games. They scored 109 against Las Vegas before putting up 92 points against both Phoenix and Los Angeles to start their current four-game win streak. Though they ran into a defensive blast from Golden State last time out and went under. 

Indiana’s offense is fast-paced and should move the needle in the Over’s direction. Caitlin Clark attacks the paint immediately after securing rebounds, generates early offense from beyond the arc and forces defenses to keep rotating until she decides to shoot. Clark is questionable to play on Friday due to back spasms and a recent leg contusion, but is considered probable and should be able to lead Indiana’s offense once again. She’ll have plenty of help in Kelsey Mitchell, who is scoring 22.6 points per game.

Seattle hasn’t been a high-scoring team throughout the season but it did score 90 points in its previous game against Chicago. Natisha Hiedeman is averaging 15.8 points and 4.3 assists, and Awa Fam scored 14 points in her team’s last outing. The Storm are also getting into matchup they like against an Indiana defense allowing 89 points per game, which ranks fourth-worst in the WNBA.

Seattle and Indiana combined for 167 points in their first matchup this season, with Indiana coming away with a 89-78 victory. Both offenses should be improved since that game took place, as Seattle hit just 78 points the last time these two teams played. The Storm have scored at least 90 points in each of their last two games.

Betting against totals this high is always tricky because one team may not perform up to its capabilities.  Both defenses allow opponents to score at least 85.5 points per game, and Indiana has played a few games this season that reached the 180s. Given enough offense on both sides, today's total can be surpassed.

Jim's Play: 631. Sea Storm / Ind Fever OVER

Los Angeles’ recent scoring feats spearhead the argument to bet over on Monday. Sparks players are averaging 89.0 points per contest but are allowing 93.2 points to opponents, setting up a combined-game score well over the total of approximately 180 points every outing. It has gone over in 14 of its past 20 games when a number was posted as well.

Scoring prowess and porous defense often go hand in hand for Los Angeles.

Their attack comes off successive games with over 100 points. Los Angeles scored 106 and 102 points in their last two outings. Against Chicago on Friday, every starter scored in double digits while shooting 51% from the field and 45% from beyond the arc. Even if Kelsey Plum and Cameron Brink are sidelined, Nneka Ogwumike, Dearica Hamby, Rae Burrell, Ariel Atkins, and Erica Wheeler can provide the Sparks offense with ample scoring.

Atlanta is due for a huge offensive night as well. Dream players are averaging 87.7 points per game, and Los Angeles happens to have one of the weakest defenses in the league. Atlanta scored 92 points in its previous outing against Portland and has dynamic guards in Allisha Gray and Rhyne Howard to shred the Sparks defense, which has struggled mightily against the guard position and on the three-point line.

The projected game flow leans toward the over as well. Los Angeles enters the matchup full of confidence and should continue to apply pressure on offense. Atlanta lost their last game and will be looking for redemption at home. If both teams are still competitive heading into the fourth quarter, late game free throws can provide the triggers needed to surpass the posted total tonight. 

Jim's Play: 609. LA Sparks / Atlanta Dream OVER 180 

Sunday’s game has plenty of reasons to hit the total. For starters, both teams can score. Indiana leads the WNBA in offensive rating at approximately 93 points per game and Vegas is also in the top tier of the league at around 90 points per game. Each team features excellent spacing, three-point shooting and several guards who can create offense without needing a lot of room to operate.

Caitlin Clark’s potential return is also a great sign for over bettors. She is unlikely to play more than 25 minutes considering she will be on a minutes restriction coming off of injury. Even 20 minutes of Clark should accelerate the game, create more transition buckets and lead to more threes being attempted. She also makes life easier for Kelsey Mitchell and Aliyah Boston with her passing, and should give the Fever more upside than they had last Sunday.

Las Vegas should also score more efficiently than they did in the first meeting between these two teams. The Aces put up well under their season average of points in game one, but players like Jackie Young, Chelsea Gray and Jewell Loyd make it difficult to imagine Vegas not posting comfortably on Sunday. Keep in mind they will also have motivation after being held to only 68 points in game one.

Neither team struggles to score, which I believe dictates the likely game script. Indiana wants to run the floor at every opportunity and Las Vegas is one of the best passing teams in the league, making it easy for them to exploit mismatches early in the defense’s positioning. A close fourth quarter could also lead to fouls and free throws down the stretch, another avenue for the over to hit.

Jim's Play: 607. Ind Fever / LV Aces OVER

Hamilton’ s quarterback situation is why I’m fading both teams to stay under the total. Bo Levi Mitchell broke his ankle and underwent surgery Monday. He is out indefinitely, which leaves the Tiger-Cats with journeyman quarterback behind center. That’s a downgrade for an offense that now has to win on the road against one of the better teams in the CFL.

I believe Hamilton will struggle to put up enough points to get us into the mid-50s. The Tiger-Cats offense will likely take a page from their week five script against Toronto and lean on the short passing game and run. Their leading rusher was Zach Evans, who had only 38 carries coming into this game. Expect Hamilton to play it safe, try not to turn the ball over and simply run the ball down Saskatchewan’s throat.

Speaking of running the ball, the Riders should also have every incentive to play patient, ball-control football. After posting just nine carries in week six, A. J. Ouellette is expected to suit up and give the Roughriders a powerful runner to set the tone with. If Saskatchewan gets ahead, they can control the clock on the ground without having to rely on Trevor Harris to throw the ball late into games.

Wind is another factor that points to an under. The forecast in Regina calls for heavy winds around 15-25 mph. Wind can wreak havoc on big plays, especially deep passing routes. It also makes kicking more difficult, so expect both offenses to lean on the run as well.

Both defenses should keep this game close, but Hamilton’ s offense might not score enough to surpass 53.5. Expect a low-scoring affair in the low- to mid-40s.

Jim's Play: 677. Ham Tigercats / Sas Roughriders UNDER

I'll be taking the over here on Friday and it starts with defense. Both teams lack defensive identity. Chicago is allowing opponents 88.8 points per game and the Sparks have consistently been a part of very high-scoring affairs. Los Angeles has averaged 90.4 points over its last five games while allowing 101.4 during that same span.

The Sparks should be able to move the ball efficiently against a bottom-third defense in Chicago. Los Angeles is scoring 88.4 points per game on 45.3% shooting from the floor, providing them with enough offensive firepower to reach 90 points at home. Chicago counters with an 86.1 points per game attack so expect both teams to contribute if the total lands in the upper 170s or around 180.

Chicago will likely be without Skylar Diggins and DiJonai Carrington, which could also bode well for the over. The duo’s absence obviously hinders Chicago’s perimeter defense and its ability to contain the Sparks guards. Chicago could lose a little bit of creation offensively without Diggins, but you have to assume they’ll also play at a faster pace and rely more on early offense instead of bogging things down with half-court sets.

Neither team has shown any sort of consistency on defense, which is why I'm looking at the over in this spot. Both teams should feel like they have a punchers chance in this game and attacking might be the best option for both teams. Expect an aggressive pace with tons of transition baskets and late game free throws if the game is close.

Jim's Play: 645. Chi Sky / LA Sparks OVER

Starting pitching sets up an over-friendly scenario between the New York Yankees and Washington Nationals Friday.

Both offenses will have the opportunity to jump on their opponents early because the pitching matchup leans in that direction.

The Yankees will turn to Ryan Weathers, who has yet to prove he can go deep into games. If he struggles with command or leaves men on base early, Washington’s lineup should be able to work deep into New York’s bullpen before the night is over.

Washington counters with left-hander Carson Palmquist, who will miss some bats but is still inexperienced against major-league hitters. That will prove to be a tough assignment against a Yankees lineup that is full of right-handed bats with power to all fields. Look for New York to grind away at Palmquist, increase his pitch count and string together hits before Washington’s bullpen takes the mound.

The Yankees offense should also begin to come around and Washington has speed and power up and down its lineup that can hurt Weathers if he pitches poorly.

Weak relief corps from both teams gives the over another avenue to victory should the game hang tight entering the later innings.

Because Palmquist will have his work cut out for him against New York’s dangerous lineup, Weathers comes into the game with some concerning trends and both bullpens have the potential to give up runs, this game will hit double digits on Friday.

Jim's Play: 923. Yankees / Nationals OVER 

The Phillies and Reds should hit enough home runs on Thursday to cover the total, and the first reason starts with location. Great American Ball Park is one of baseball’s friendlier parks for power hitters, and the temperatures won’t hold the ball in either. Cincinnati should be in the low- to mid-80s by first pitch.

The pitching staffs are also conducive to hitting the over. Luzardo features solid strikeout stuff (7-4, 3.75 ERA, 125 K), but Singer hasn’t been great (3-8, 5.03 ERA). The right-hander’s profile alone gives Philadelphia a good chance to hit crooked innings with Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, J.T. Realmuto and a lineup capable of power after Wednesday’s series opener.

But Cincinnati’s offense should offer enough support as well. The Reds smashed five home runs in an 11-5 victory Wednesday.  Cincinnati’s offense put together a five-run fourth inning and even forced Philadelphia to turn to their bullpen early. Tanner Banks coughed up three homers during that inning, so Thursday could unfold similarly if the Reds’ bats are feeling it again.

Philadelphia also has every reason to do their damage as well. The Phillies still scored five runs on Wednesday, with Realmuto and Schwarber each belting homers of their own. Schwarber is pacing the majors with his 32nd long ball of the season, providing enough power potential from Philly’s lineup to explode against Cincinnati.

The over is sitting around 9.5, but the combination of offense, bullpen exposure and park should get us there Thursday.

Jim's Play: 953. Phillies / Reds OVER (NL Total of the Week)

I'll be looking at the Red Sox and white Sox game to go over the total here on Wednesday. Starting with the total itself: The betting market has this game around 8 to 8.5 and there are enough avenues for this game to reach that number with temperatures forecast to be warm at Rate Field on Thursday night. 

Boston’s has a lineup that can make good against Davis Martin. Martin is having a nice season at 9-3 with a 3.08 ERA but his last five outings have yielded a 4.50 ERA and he’s only lasting 4.2 innings per start during this skid. His last start was poor: he allowed 9 earned runs and 3 homers against the Yankees on June 16. Boston plated 8 runs in Tuesday’s series opener and that kind of production is possible again because Boston is loaded with right-handed bats that can do damage with extra-base hits. They’ll give Martin all he can handle and he’s shown the ability to tire early.

Jake Bennett has held Boston to averages of 4.77 runs scored and 4.56 runs allowed during his 6 starts, so he’s no pushover, but he’s still learning the big leagues as a 25-year-old.  Chicago is averaging 4.77 runs scored and 4.56 runs allowed while their games have averaged 9.32 total runs.

Chicago’s bullpen ERA (4.14) is actually better than its starters’ ERA (4.36), and its bullpen also has a WHIP of 1.33. As mentioned earlier, Martin doesn’t go deep into games. If he lasts only 4 or 5 innings again, Boston is going to get multiple opportunities to attack a Chicago bullpen that has already allowed more than 6 runs five times this season.

The over is working in its last outings too. The White Sox have hit the over in 3 of their last 5 games, and have gone over in 24 of their home games out of 43. Boston went over on Tuesday when they won 8-1.

Final thought: I understand Boston and Chicago each have starters with season ERAs under 4.00, but Boston’s bats are hot, Chicago plays into the over and warm temperatures mean more runs should be expected late. Don’t let two middle-of-the-road starters sway you from the over.

Jim's Play: 915. Red Sox / White Sox OVER 

Both the Astros and Nationals like to swing the bat, plain and simple. The total is sitting around 9 to 9.5, but these two clubs already produced one wild scoring game in this series (Washington won 12-11 on Monday before Houston responded with a 6-3 victory Tuesday). Houston games are averaging 9.60 total runs and Washington games are averaging 10.68 total runs.

Washington especially seems poised to contribute heavily to this total. The Nationals offense has averaged only 5.38 runs per game. But they also allow 5.30 runs per game, meaning their games naturally lean to the higher side. Washington is also 54-36 to the over on the season and 6-4 to the over in their last 10.

The Astros still have avenues to attack even with Foster Griffin on the mound for Washington. Griffin has been lights-out recently, posting a 1.15 ERA over his last five starts, but Washington’ s bullpen behind him leaves holes. 

Washington’ s relievers own a 5.06 ERA on the year, and have been lit up recently, posting a 10.03 ERA and 1.71 WHIP over their last three games. If Houston can advance Griffin’ s pitch count into middle relief, the Astros will have plenty of chances to score late.

Nationals’ hitters also welcome a matchup against Spencer Arrighetti. Over his last five outings, Arrighetti owns a 7.33 ERA. In those five starts, he’ s allowed 22 earned runs, 7 homers and 11 walks. That’ s a dangerous recipe against a Nationals offense that has consistently plated runs and is coming off a 12-spot in game one of this series.

Washington’ s offense is cooking right now and should keep runs coming. Arrighetti has been shaky lately, Houston has a clear path to attack Washington’ s bullpen, and both of these teams average tilt the total in the direction of higher-scoring games. Give me the over even if Griffin squashes Houston in the early innings. The Astros should manufacture enough chances to push this game into the 10-plus range.

Jim's Play: 927. Astros / Nationals OVER

I'll be looking at taking the UNDER here on Tuesday in the Dallas Wings vs New York Liberty contest. 

Forget about how these two clubs play on paper; let’s look at the first meeting. Dallas defeated New York 91-76 earlier this season and even though Paige Bueckers and Azzi Fudd erupted for big games, the final score was still just 167 total points. Remember that because the number is WAY higher this time around, hovering around 175.5, and if the first meeting is any indication these two teams can play a solid game of basketball without it turning into a shootout.

Speaking of defensive promise, New York should also come out with more firewalled effort on that end of the floor. The Liberty got lit up by Dallas on the break, particularly from Fudd on the perimeter, in their initial matchup, but NY has home cooking with motivation to adjust after getting dismantled. New York’s roster has enough guards to slow the pace down, force Dallas into half-court situations, and make Wing players work deep into the shot clock.

Speaking of injuries, Dallas's Satou Sabally won’t play while Leonie Fiebich is also out for the Liberty. Both players’ absence hurts New York’s scoring potential, size, and spacing within their rotation. Sure they have All-Stars like Breanna Stewart and Sabrina Ionescu, but key cogs being out of the lineup makes it difficult for offensive efficiency to stay high throughout all 48 minutes.

Dallas is an offensive powerhouse, but they’re still a young team traveling to the Big Apple to face a veteran Liberty squad. I believe New York will make Fudd and Bueckers see various defensive schemes, limit easy buckets in transition, and force Dallas into contested jumpers.

Both teams will give maximum effort like it’s a playoff game, they match up with identical records, and both teams have enough defensive hunger to prevent this game from getting out of hand. Expect New York to play with more pace, Dallas to endure tougher scoring droughts, and the game’s final score to RESIDE UNDER the total.

Jim's Play: 625. Dal Wings / NY Liberty UNDER 

This Monday’s Golden State Valkyries vs. Washington Mystics UNDER makes plenty of sense, as the number sits around 156 and the matchup profiles more like a grind-it-out game than a track meet. Golden State is 14-7 ATS, Washington is 10-9 ATS, and the Valkyries’ success comes from defense as three of their last eight opponents scored under 70 points.

Golden State’s scoring output also trends under. In their last four games before Saturday’s 88-83 victory over Atlanta, the Valkyries played games that ended 76-67, 78-75 and 77-66, all well below the current total. It proves Golden State is fine with winning games in the 70s and making teams earn it with defense, spacing, and half-court basketball rather than trying to out-run opponents.

Washington has offensive problems as well with Sonia Citron out of the lineup with a knee injury. Losing Citron is significant because she scored 32 points before exiting Saturday’s game, so Washington must lean more on Georgia Amoore, Lucy Olsen and the supporting cast to create offense.

Washington has been winning lately, but they haven’t been winning pretty. The Mystics turned the ball over 27 times (19 in the first half) against Atlanta, which is careless and could kill offensive momentum. Golden State is the type of defensive team that can force Washington into long, wasted trips down the floor instead of easy buckets.

Expect the Valkyries to slow down the pace of this game, lock down the perimeter and make Washington work into the shot clock. With Citron sidelined, Golden State’s defense rolling and both teams possessing the ability to fall into half-court sets, the total feels too high.

Jim's Play: 619. GS Valkyries / WAS Mystics UNDER

Sunday’s matchup between the Dallas Wings and Toronto Tempo has a clear trajectory to hitting the OVER, and it begins with both offenses creating shots. The total is set high in the 182.5 to 183.5 range, but these two teams have the scoring upside to reach it.

Dallas enters Sunday averaging 88.3 points per game, but they have multiple options led by Paige Bueckers, Azzi Fudd, Jessica Shepard, and Arike Ogunbowale. Bueckers is Dallas’ most important player at the moment though, as she is red hot offensively. Finding shots in rhythm down the stretch allows Dallas to continuously pile on points.

Toronto can certainly match Dallas scoring wise. They average 90.8 points per game and have gotten into a groove lately thanks to Marina Mabrey. Brittney Sykes will be sidelined for this game, which means Mabrey will continue to run Toronto’s offense and look to create shots at will.

Toronto is averaging 91.9 points per game against while Dallas has struggled defensively on the road, allowing 92.5 points per game away from home. This is the exact profile OVER bettors are looking for when comparing two teams: offenses that can score, but defenses that leave opportunities open for the opponent to burn them back.

An added bonus to this game is the event feel. Toronto is hosting Dallas in Canada which should create plenty of juice from the opening tip. Toronto could come out hot as hosts, and Dallas has the firepower to knock down three after three. Dallas could go on early run, and Toronto has proven they have the weapons to keep up.

Expect a high pace game with perimeter shots galore, and free throws late to propel this game OVER the total.

Jim's Play: 615. Dal Wings / Tor Tempo OVER 

Jim Feist is betting on the OVER in Saturday’’s Marlins and Athletics game and there are plenty of reasons why. This is the type of total where the number might be high but you still get a feel for the matchup leaning towards offense.

Miami will start Sandy Alcantara at 9-4 with a 4.20 ERA and 84 strikeouts while Oakland counters with Aaron Civale who is 5-5 with a 5.05 ERA and 48 strikeouts. Alcantara has more name value and the better stats across the board, but anything less than an ERA around 3.00 is exploitable these days. Civale is worth attacking here against a Miami lineup that lit up Oakland on Friday night.

The biggest reason to like this total came on Friday night. Miami scored 12 runs, five of them home runs, and jumped all over the Athletics starting pitcher. The Marlins were patient at the plate, drew walks, and were swinging at the right pitches. We know Oakland can hit, but Miami did a lot of things right on Friday and should carry that confidence over to Saturday’s game. When one lineup gets rolling like that it often carries over for the next game.

Oakland can play its part as well. Despite losing 12-5, the Athletics still mounted runs, worked walks, and were able to manufacture scoring chances throughout the game. Nick Kurtz went deep on Friday evening and Oakland had multiple innings where it could have tightened up this game if Boston did not escape with a win. They don’t have to mash all day against Alcantara. Runners on base and Oakland has enough hitters to drop in a few runs and stay connected for the over.

Throw in a bullpen aspect to this game and you have a lot of runs on both sides. Oakland’s bullpen struggled on Friday night when it had to enter the game. If Oakland pitchers fail to go deep into this game once again, Miami has every opportunity to score more runs. Speaking of which, Alcantara does not have the type of ERA to protect his team from Oakland scoring three or four runs. Touch that marker and Oakland does its part to get OVER.

Jim's Play: 929. Marlins/Athletics OVER 

Jim Feist likes the OVER in Friday’s WNBA game between Chicago and Las Vegas and it’s right in his wheelhouse why the number is high for a reason but can still hit.  This total is nowhere near a ridiculous number for these teams as the last meeting between these teams went OVER that total with ease as they combined for 206 points in a 107-99 Las Vegas victory. THAT was not a fluke basketball game. That contest had everything. Pace. Shot-making. Free throws. Points inside. Points outside. Both teams getting buckets from multiple areas of the floor. When a game goes OVER deep into NBA territory just THREE days prior, you have to factor in the offensive momentum coming into this one.

You also have to take into consideration just how deadly Las Vegas is on offense. The Aces average 90.7 points per game as a team. Las Vegas’ trio of Jackie Young, Chelsea Gray and Chennedy Carter can manufacture offense on a consistent basis, and if A’ja Wilson is able to suit up and play, wow do the Aces have another lethal weapon. Of course Wilson’s availability is huge. However, even if she can’t go or is limited, Vegas still has enough firepower off the guard play and shot-making ability to impose its will and score on Chicago.

Chicago is more than capable of keeping pace as well. The Sky average 86.4 points per game and proved they could score against this Aces defense in the first matchup as Kamilla Cardoso and Azura Stevens led the way with 24 points apiece. Chicago attacked the paint, they got easy buckets off offensive rebounds, and they were able to score from the perimeter too. THAT is what players of the OVER want to see.

When all is said and done, the OVER has its best chance based on the defensive matchups. Chicago has been outright bad defending at times and Las Vegas comes into this game with the swagger of a team that KNOWS it can score at will if it gets going. Conversely, the Aces have been shooting themselves in the foot by giving up points as well, especially at home. Chicago will score, especially if Vegas builds a big lead and the Sky are forced to throw everything they have at the Aces basket.

You have to like this total just like Jim Feist does. Over 200 points wasn’t a fluke EVEN THOUGH it likely won’t reach that absurd amount again. Both teams have proven they can score on each other. Vegas brings an unstoppable offense while Chicago proved in Game 1 they can hang with them. Expect another fast-paced affair with buckets in the first quarter and buckets in the fourth. OVER. 

Jim's Play: 609. Chi Sky / LV Aces OVER

Jim Feist likes the OVER in Friday’ s Miami Marlins and Oakland Athletics game and here’s why: It’ s one of those totals where the bats have every opportunity to inflict damage.

Miami will start Tyler Phillips (1-3, 3.02 ERA) while Oakland goes with Jack Perkins (2-3, 6.00 ERA). Phillips obviously has the better surface stat, but he isn’t a strikeout guy and his walk rate is enough to raise an eyebrow if the Athletics get guys on base. Perkins, on the other hand, is ripe for the picking. An ERA of 6.00 against this Miami lineup that hits the ball hard and often, runs the bases well, and manufactures offense is as good as any recipe for disaster.

Pitching is the biggest reason to take the over, but Oakland’ s pitching profile here plays right into the over’ s hands. The Athletics just haven’t been able to keep opposing teams off the scoreboard consistently and their staff has let far too many balls get put in play all season. Miami isn’t a pure power team, but they make their contact, they’re speedy, they steal bases, and they find ways to put pressure on defenses. Opposing pitchers have to go deep into games against this lineup, which opens the door for the over because Marlins hitters are capable of threatening from first pitch to last.

Miami is also coming off a frenzied series in Colorado where the scoreboard had more flashes than a midnight buffet. The Marlins scored 10, 14, 3, and 4 runs during that four-game set. Miami’ s bats didn’t cool down on Thursday either as Otto Lopez went 3-for-4 on the road trip with a triple and double. This lineup has confidence, the speed to take extra bases, and make enough contact to make Oakland’ s pitching pay.

The Athletics average 4.6 runs per game, hit more homers than Miami, and get their home ballpark matchup against a starter who may have a nice ERA on paper but whose peripheral profile should allow for scoring opportunities. Whether it’ s Shea Langeliers, Nick Kurtz, Max Muncy, Lawrence Butler or anyone else from this lineup, Oakland has enough pop to capitalize on one walk and one mistake by Phillips.

The park is friendly too. Sutter Health Park has played well for hitters while the total sits around 9 to 10.5 runs depending on where you look. Considering Perkins owns a 6.00 ERA, Oakland has bullpen problems, and both of these lineups can produce in the late innings…respecting the number makes all the sense in the world.

You’ ll find those same feelings in Jim Feist. Friday’ s Marlins vs. Athletics total is up for grabs with speed, contact, and momentum on Miami’ s side while Oakland counters with big flies and a hittable staff. Perkins will be the early focal point for Miami’ s bats, but Phillips should still provide enough opportunities for Oakland to mount an attack of their own. Expect traffic on the bases, middle inning pressure, and bullpen explosions late.

Jim's Play: 975. Marlins/A's OVER

Jim Feist is betting the OVER in Friday’s Saskatchewan Roughriders and Ottawa Redblacks matchup, and this is precisely the type of contest why the number is high but the flow of game favors totals.

It’s hovering around 57.5, which seems attainable when you break down both teams strengths. Saskatchewan has one of the top offenses in the CFL, ranking fifth in points (35.0) and yards (472.7). Quarterback Trevor Harris has been leading the charge through the air, and when the Riders are able to get into a rhythm they can score quickly and put teams in hunt mode.

Saskatchewan also just lost 40-34 to Toronto, where Harris threw for 409 yards and two touchdowns. Saskatchewan’s offense isn’t the issue, it’s an defense that surrendered 40 points last week and is giving up 34.7 points per game this season. That’s what you want as an over player. You want an offense that can keep up scoring, but also a team that isn’t afraid to give up points.

Ottawa will gladly oblige when it comes to staying in the scoring column. The Redblacks  finally got it going on offense last week during a 37-35 loss at Montreal. Jake Maier threw for 336 yards and touchdowns, while Justin Hardy added 119 yards receiving. You can’t ask for much more than that from your quarterback and Ottawa has a chance to build off that performance at home on Friday night.

Defensively is where this total really gets interesting. Ottawa is surrendering 36.7 points per game, while Saskatchewan isn’t far behind at 34.7. When you pair these two defenses together you’re looking at a recipe for shootout. Both teams have been susceptible through the air, both give up the big play, and both quarterbacks can make every throw.

Neither of these teams are elite on special teams either, so you’re bound to see some unexpected shifts in field position that lead to scoring drives.

Need more reasons why this game could reach 57.5? How about the CFL? 

It’s a league that’s conducive for late game points. We have big fields, three downs, quarterbacks that go deep frequently, ugly special teams that can drastically change field position and defenses that haven’t proved they can stop anyone consistently. Those are the type of games that go into overtime or push the total over the number.

Jim's Play: 691. Sas Roughriders / Ottawa Redblacks OVER

Jim Feist likes the OVER in Thursday’ CFL game between the Toronto Argonauts and Calgary Stampeders and here is why he loves totals in this type of contest.

High scoring affairs can happen at anytime in this league, but some totals just scream “OVER”. This line is around 60.5 which is high but this matchup deserves a high number.

Both offenses have weapons to attack defenses. Toronto has been one of the CFL’s most explosive offenses this season averaging 38 ppg and Chad Kelly has been excellent under center. Kelly has been airing it out, averaging 396 yards per game through the air and 9 TD passes. He has definitely made CFL defenses stretch vertically. When your quarterback is playing this well, your offense has touchdown potential on every possession.

Calgary can definitely contribute to this game getting over as well. Calgary broke out last week in a 41-33 victory over B.C. proving they have the firepower to keep pace in a score fest. Vernon Adams Jr. is mobile in the pocket and can push the ball down the field. He makes big plays when plays breakdown and can extend plays to make explosive strikes when a defense opens up. This is key because I doubt Toronto’ offense slows down at all, so Calgary may be forced to go score for score for 4 quarters.

The biggest reason to love the OVER in this game is pace. The CFL’s new play-clock rules have led to more snaps, more possessions, and more opportunities to score. Through Week 4 both Calgary and Toronto games have played high and these two teams have combined to go 6-for-6 against the over. This isn’t luck. This is a league trend based on pace and offense. Feel free to subscribe to that trend in this matchup.

Calgary’s defense has also struggled mightily through the air. The Stampeders have already allowed 103 points through their first three games and now they have to face a Toronto team that is throwing all over the place with confidence and finishing drives. If Calgary gives Chad Kelly easy looks downfield the Argonauts can score quickly.

On the flip side, Toronto should be able to score enough to force Calgary into an aggressive mentality. Over bettors love that. Calgary will not be able to sit on their heels if they fall behind and with Vernon Adams Jr. under center they have more than enough big-play talent to respond. If Toronto dominates as expected, Calgary can still put up numbers in desperation.

Expect points early and more points late in this game. 

Jim's Play: 689. Argonauts / Stampeders OVER  

Jim Feist is taking the OVER on Thursday’ WNBA matchup between the Dallas Wings and Connecticut Sun. Thursday night features one of his favorite total types; spots where the number might be high, but the game flow still favors the points.

The total is currently sitting around 171 and Dallas sports one of the league’s best offenses heading into this game, scoring 88.4 points per contest. The Wings shoot 45.9 percent from the floor, tally 22.3 assists per game, and just have everything you look for in terms of offensive balance. Connecticut counters with Paige Bueckers (19.9 PPG, 5.9 APG), Azzi Fudd (13.6 PPG), and enough wing scoring to keep up with Dallas. Which means both teams have multiple shot creators, multiple guards who can attack the basket, and enough perimeter shooting to encourage an up-tempo game script.

Just because Connecticut sits near the bottom of the standings doesn’t mean they aren’t playing with confidence. The Sun have won two straight games and head back home to Huntington Bridge with an opportunity to snap their season-best three game winning streak. Connecticut attacking with confidence matters for the over because they aren’t a dead offense plodding their way into this game. Second-year forward Azzi Fudd is proving herself as a reliable scoring option, Paige Buecker is playing her best basketball of the season, and with Brittney Griner controlling the paint and Olivia Nelson- Ododa patrolling the glass the Sun can definitely do their part.

Dallas’ pace of play and offensive efficiency is probably the biggest over angle on the board. The Wings like to play fast, move the ball, and generate easy baskets before the defense has a chance to set. An up-tempo Dallas squad forces Connecticut to play on the rush as well, especially if Dallas kicks this game off hitting shots from the perimeter. 

The situational setup also favors scores flying through the WNBA record books. Dallas is coming off of back-to-back losses and will want to come out swinging, attacking the basket with offensive purpose. Connecticut is at home, playing with confidence, and facing a Dallas Wings team that has struggled mightily to lock down on defense during key stretches of games. You basically have a recipe for both teams coming out of the gates swinging.

The rebounding numbers set up well for the over as well. Connecticut is one of the league’s top offensive rebounding teams, and Dallas forces extra possessions with steals and full court pressure. Depending possessions are like gold for players hitting the over, especially when you have two teams that boast multiple individual scorers that can turn second chance opportunities into points.

Thursday night features everything Jim Feist loves to see when attacking the over. Dallas boasts a high-end offense, Connecticut is rolling confidence-wise, both teams have complementary scorers all over the floor, and the game flow will likely involve pace, transition baskets, and late game free throws. Bet on Dallas pushing the pace, Connecticut answering at home, and the scoreboard continuing to rise.

Jim's Play: 603. Wings / Sun OVER

Jim Feist is targeting the OVER in Thursday’ s St. Louis Cardinals and Atlanta Braves game, and it’s for good reason. This is the type of total where the number is very playable simply because of the market price. At around 9, both teams have enough lineup juice, a shaky road starter, and a young hurler with a small sample size on the mound to overcome from the other side to hit that mark.

St. Louis rolls out Dustin May (5-6, 4.30 ERA, 77 strikeouts) while Atlanta will counter with Hurston Waldrep (0-0, 0.00 ERA, 3 strikeouts) in limited work. May has the pedigree, but the 4.30 ERA tells you everything you need to know about how he’s performed this season. He’s been hittable. Waldrep does have some talent, but it’s still a rough spot against the Cardinals in a series finale. Atlanta will surely come out swinging. 

The main reason to be on the over is because of the volatility of this matchup. May has allowed enough runners and contact all year to provide Atlanta opportunities to put runs on the board, and the Braves have the firepower to do some damage. Ozzie Albies belted a homer Wednesday, Michael Harris II crushed a big late-game RBI hit, and Austin Riley finally broke out of his slump with a run-scoring single. That late-game offensive burst could easily translate over to night game.

The Cardinals also have the juice to bounce back at the plate. St. Louis scored in the first inning against Atlanta Wednesday but were then stranded for the remainder of the game. Expect this lineup to come out guns blazing Thursday as it tries to regain some offensive momentum. Jordan Walker, Ivan Herrera, Nathan Church and company have plenty of thump in this lineup and should be able to hang on Waldrep early, especially considering Waldrep has yet to prove he can go deep into a game as a starter.

You also have to like the matchup from a bullpen perspective. St. Louis failed to close out Wednesday’s game despite getting to Atlanta late and that plays heavily into this total landing where it is at around 9. The starting matchup may be solid, but once these bullpens start mixing into the game, it opens up in a hurry. 

This is the perfect recipe for a Thursday total play the way Jim Feist likes them. The number is attainable, Atlanta’s bats came alive at the worst time for St. Louis, the Cardinals have a prime opportunity to bounce back offensively, and neither starting pitcher inspires enough confidence to expect a snoozer. Expect traffic early and bullpen woes late, and you should see enough offense from both teams to get over here.

Jim's Play: 907. Cardinals / Braves OVER

Jim Feist likes the OVER in Wednesday’ s Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers game, and that is because it’s this kind of total play where the number seems quite attainable. The total is hovering around 8 to 8.5 and with Milwaukee’s bats humming like they have been lately, this game has every opportunity to exceed that mark.

Milwaukee (Andrew Drohan, LHP, 3-2, 3.12 ERA) takes on Cincinnati (Andrew Abbott, LHP, 5-4, 3.90 ERA) and while both lefties have performed well this season, neither of these guys are lights out starters either. Abbott has struggled mightily to hold down this Milwaukee lineup during previous starts and there are several guys in this Brewers lineup that have already proven they can do damage against him if given the opportunity. Drohan has been good for Milwaukee but he is still a starter who hasn’t proven he can go deep into games consistently. Both offenses should have the opportunity to see relief pitchers by the 5th inning.

The biggest reason to side with the over in this spot is Milwaukee’s current offensive prowess. Milwaukee was able to hit seven runs and 14 hits yesterday and have already scored 12 runs in the first two games of this series. They are seeing the baseball well, manufacturing hits from top to bottom in the lineup, and working deep counts with runners on base. Milwaukee’s offense can impact this game in a multitude of ways, but single extra-base hits and homers will quickly open up this game.

Milwaukee also has recent history on their side. Milwaukee has won the last six matchups versus Cincinnati and those vibes translate to the batter’s box. Milwaukee is not playing with any added pressure. They are going to be aggressive early, lengthen innings, and put pressure on Cincinnati to mount a comeback. If Milwaukee can stack baserunners against Abbott like they did yesterday, it will be hard for Cincinnati to keep pace.

It doesn’t hurt that Cincinnati can obviously help this total too. The Reds are scuffling in this division, but they have still demonstrated power in their lineup all year long. Elly De La Cruz and Sal Stewart both homered yesterday and there are enough bats in this Cincinnati lineup that can deliver three or four runs against Drohan if he struggles. Cincinnati is also behind in this series so they need to throw strikes and produce early. Cincinnati may not win this game, but they should be able to keep it close.

Too many things are going Milwaukee’s way for this to stay under 8.5 runs. Jim Feist thinks so anyway. Milwaukee’s bats look fantastic, Cincinnati still has power in their lineup to bail them out if needed, and recent series have gone OVER (including Milwaukee’s last six vs. Cincinnati). There should be runs in the early going, bullpen arms should cause worry in the middle innings, and both offenses will be able to produce late to push this over the total.

Jim's Play: 957. Reds / Brewers OVER 8.5

The USA opened as a huge favorite while the total opened at 2.5 goals. Given the line movement and match background, the over has plenty of value in this matchup on Wednesday, July 1 at 8:00 p.m. ET in Santa Clara. 

Why Bet the Over?  For starters, both teams should score, likely in a USA 2, Bosnia and Herzegovina 1 type of game. The betting market has also already priced the over as the favorite, which is another factor that can't be ignored.

Digging deeper, there are plenty of reasons to bet the total up in this game. First, the U.S. attack. The Americans have the pieces to strike early, and one current tournament trend circles back to the U.S. scoring a first half goal in 10 of its last 13 matches against 2026 World Cup teams. Scoring first would open the game up and force Bosnia and Herzegovina out of its shell, which is exactly what over bettors are looking for.

Bosnia and Herzegovina gives itself plenty of chances to stay with this trend. They won't just bunker down for 90 minutes because they possess plenty of attacking threats to hurt teams that lose focus. Bosnia and Herzegovina advanced out of Group B with a draw against Canada, a loss to Switzerland, and a dominant victory over Qatar. They also possess the type of direct style that can create scoring chances without having the lion's share of possession.

This is also a knockout game, which typically leads to more scoring. If the U.S. jumps ahead, Bosnia and Herzegovina will have to attack to equalize. If Bosnia and Herzegovina scores first, the USA has the pressure of home-field advantage and attacking weapons to equalize. It's a recipe for late goals no matter which team comes out on top.

Scoring is likely based on the tactical matchup as well. Bosnia’ bold attacking style will create chances against the U.S. back line, while the Americans should have enough speed up top to create chances vs. a structured but short-of-quality Bosnian defense.

Edin Dzeko will keep possession alive for Bosnia and Herzegovina while Christian Pulisic, Folarin Balogun, and the American midfield offers the U.S. multiple avenues to attack.

Jim's Play: 225537. Bosnia and Herzegovina vs USA Over 

Jim Feist has the OVER circled on Tuesday’s WNBA Commissioner’s Cup Final between the Las Vegas Aces and New York Liberty. There’s so much star power in this matchup that high-scoring WNBA championship game seems likely. Place A’ja Wilson, Jackie Young, Chelsea Gray, Breanna Stewart, Sabrina Ionescu, Jonquel Jones and Satou Sabally on the court and you’re not expecting struggle offense. You expect TWO teams full of offensive weapons, capable of exchanging buckets all game long.

Start with how both teams score. Vegas averages almost 90 points per game while New York falls in the same range. This total is predicated on two high-scoring teams colliding before even accounting for the pace, shooters, and MVP caliber talent on both rosters. Both teams should be able to score here. They do not need to one carry the other. In fact, if both teams simply play to the level they are used to offensively this matchup has every opportunity to surpass the number.

Speaking of talented scorers Vegas rolls into this WNBA Finals with the leagues best scorer in A’ja Wilson. Wilson will have plenty of motivation after being contained in the final meeting with New York. It matters. Superstars make adjustments and Wilson is too good to disappear again. If she gets going early New York will have to pay extra attention which should open up the floor for Jackie Young, Chelsea Gray and open Aces shooters.

There’s plenty of firepower for New York as well. Breanna Stewart can score inside and out, Jonquel Jones provides New York with a legit inside presence and Sabrina Ionescu gets hot from deep in the blink of an eye. New York also passes the ball well enough to capitalize on defensive breakdowns, which will be crucial against a Las Vegas team that has had their fair share of untimely lapses on that end of the floor this season. If Stewart and company find clean looks from three and control the boards it won’t take long for New York to climb high on the scoreboard.

Oddly enough, the under in the last meeting could bode well for the over here. Both coaches now have a better idea of what did and didn’t work in that game and both offenses should look to improve upon what they did last time these two met. Las Vegas needs to get better looks for Wilson. New York will look to attack mismatches with Stewart and Jones. Knowing what they know now we could see a much improved offensive showing in a rematch with this much talent involved.

There’s also a Championship Game at stake. Late game points will definitely be on the board in this one. Free throws, drawn charges, sloppy fouls, and adrenaline fueled shot-making can all send this total soaring in the fourth. Vegas and New York both have too much talent to let their guard down in a close game. If this WNBA Finals is close in the fourth, bettors on the over will love the final two minutes of play.

Combine everything above and you have yourself a WNBA Total that Jim Feist is fond of. Elite offenses on both sides, superstar scorers, motivation for Vegas to win WNBA Commissioner's Cup,  and enough defensive question marks to keep points flowing throughout the contest. 

Jim's Play: 651. LV Aces / NY Liberty OVER 

Jim Feist is taking the OVER in Tuesday’ s Pittsburgh Pirates and Philadelphia Phillies game at Citizens Bank Park and we think betting on totals this high is a smart play when both teams come into the contest flashing signs of life at the plate like this one. There is an elite starter on the hill for Philadelphia but the OVER is still very much in play against a Bubba Chandler allowed Pittsburgh offense.

Pittsburgh will start 3-7 Bubba Chandler (4.42 ERA, 73 strikeouts) and Philadelphia will counter with 9-3 Cristopher Sanchez (2.13 ERA, 127 strikeouts). Sanchez has been lights out for Philadelphia but Pittsburgh does not need to go crazy offensively against him to hit this total. The OVER will be impacted just as much by Philadelphia crushing Chandler and the Pirates bullpen.

As mentioned above, the big reason to think this total hits is how the game ended Monday night. Pittsburgh scored 11 runs and Philadelphia responded with seven of their own. Power was flying around Citizens Bank Park on Monday and historically when teams do that to open a series there is a good chance we see continued success in game two. These Pirates are slashing .231/.326/.428 as a team and there is evidence they can hang with elite pitching.

Pittsburgh is going after Phillies starter Chandler (.231/.326/.428) and for good reason. While Sanchez has been elite this year, Chandler owns a 4.42 ERA and does not have great pedigree as a starting pitcher. Philadelphia should jump on him early with the bats they have in this lineup and they do not need to worry about leaving games late. If Philadelphia rallies early, this lineup can chunk runs quickly. Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, and Brandon Marsh all homered on Monday and there are plenty more where that came from.

Pittsburgh also has a ton of pop in their lineup. They aren’t going to win the power race with Philadelphia but they can hang after averaging 5.2 runs per game this season. Esmerlyn Valdez has been on fire lately, Brandon Lowe has provided steady power, and Pittsburgh has multiple guys that can keep runs on the board for all frames. 

The OVER is one of those spots we love when Jim Feist bets it. Chandler can be attacked at the plate, Philadelphia’s power bats showed up in a big way Monday, and Pittsburgh’s bats followed suit with 11 runs of their own. You can backload this game and still hit the OVER. Bet the OVER. 

Jim's Play: 901. Pirates/Phillies OVER 

Jim Feist likes the OVER in Tuesday’s Chicago White Sox and Baltimore Orioles game. This is the type of total spot where the number may seem high, but the matchup and many other factors still point toward runs. Both offenses enjoyed success against Monday’ starters so there is no reason to expect plummets in production. Both offenses can thrive against the duo the teams are starting on Tuesday.

Chicago will start Erick Fedde who is currently 2-6 with a 4.34 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 5.0 innings per start, and 6.0 strikeouts per nine innings while Baltimore will send Trey Gibson to the bump who is 1-2 with a 5.64 ERA, 1.648 WHIP, 4.2 innings per start, and 7.4 strikeouts per nine innings. Neither of these starters profile like guys who are going to shut down opposing offenses, that is number one reason why this total hits.

Both starters allow traffic to flourish, both could be forced into early trouble, and neither pitcher has the profile to go deep into games on a consistent basis. The biggest reason to like over starts with Gibson. He simply cannot get outs when batters reach base, his 1.648 WHIP proves that much. Chicago was able to have every hitter in the lineup record a hit against Baltimore’s starter Monday night and if the White Sox can get traffic again they have too much contact, speed, and gap power to post multiple innings of damage against Gibson’s pitches.

Fedde is also suspect enough that Baltimore should be able to capitalize against him as well. He’s giving up a 4.34 ERA and 1.42 WHIP which means the Orioles should have chances, especially at Camden Yards. Baltimore managed just two runs in Monday’s opener but that now creates a nice bounce-back opportunity for this lineup. This group has more power than it showed on Monday and with Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, Pete Alonso, and Taylor Ward in the batting order the Orioles have plenty of upside to produce quickly.

Just looking at the team profiles, this game should produce scoring. Chicago is averaging 4.6 runs per game and has totaled 106 home runs while Baltimore is averaging 4.7 runs per game with 94 home runs. That’s right at 9.5 runs per game COMBINED and you have not even factored in two questionable starters, a hitter friendly ballpark, and bullpens that were needed late in Monday night’s opening matchup. This game does not need crazy scoring to reach the over. It just needs reasonable offensive performances out of both clubs and a little late inning woes.

When you watched Monday night’s game, you also saw how quickly this matchup can explode. It was tied 2-2 late in the game before Chicago put up six runs over their final two innings. That is exactly how over players want their games to unfold. If things start slow, there is still enough batting depth and late inning hitting upside to push this total over before the night comes to a close.

There are too many reasons to like on the over in this Tuesday total and it fits Jim Feist’s favorite profile. Starts with WHIPs above 1.40, both teams have the offensive firepower to produce power, the ballpark inflates scoring, and you already saw how this series started with late inning damage on Monday. Chicago will stack against Gibson, Baltimore will bounce back against Fedde, and the runs will keep flying.

Jim's play: 913. White Sox / Orioles OVER

Jim Feist likes the OVER in Monday’s Dodgers vs Athletics game, and even though the number is lofty, this pairing has the ability to reach it. Los Angeles rolls with Eric Lauer on the bump who owns a 3-5 record, 4.87 ERA, 1.237 WHIP and 5.8 strikeouts per nine innings. Oakland counters with Gage Jump who sports a 3-1 record with a 2.04 ERA, 0.962 WHIP and 8.9 strikeouts per nine. Jump boasts the superior pitching stats, but this isn’t a game predicated on just the starters. Both teams possess power bats, this is a favorable run-scoring environment, and the bullpens in this game could be forced to try and hold serve if this one gets going early.

Dodgers are side number one why to buy into the over. Los Angeles boasts one of the most feared offenses in baseball, they average 5.3 runs per contest while leading the league in batting average and ranking amongst the top clubs in homers. Between Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts, Andy Pages, Max Muncy and Kyle Tucker the Dodgers have too many ways to produce runs. They can attack Jump early, force pitch counts, manufacture traffic and knock one mistake out of the park.

Oakland can certainly do their damage as well. This isn’t a stagnant offense by any means. The A’s rank in the top half of the league in runs, sit comfortably in the top 10 in average and have already displayed plenty of bomb-single capability. Nick Kurtz and Shea Langeliers are legit sources of power in this lineup, while Tyler Soderstrom provides another threatening bat that can take advantage of a poor pitch. Los Angeles has the deeper lineup, but if Lauer struggles out of the gate the Athletics have enough right-handed thump to make this a two-sided scoring affair.

Sure the total is inflated due to the nature of the matchup, but that doesn’t mean betting against it is wise. Lauer has been hittable in recent outings giving Oakland a chance to strike early, and Jump’s pristine numbers will be put to the test against a Los Angeles lineup that can wear down even the best pitchers. Should this game reach the middle innings with a 4-3 or 5-2 score, the over becomes a legitimate play as both teams have tons of power from top-to-bottom. Additionally, this is the opener of a series so both squads should be entering with full batteries and a focused game plan at the dish. Los Angeles just won a series in San Diego and their bats are coming alive at the perfect time, while Oakland swings back home after putting up overs in their own ballpark.

Put a bow on it and you have yourself a quintessential Jim Feist total bet. The number sits high, but these offenses are higher. Los Angeles is sporting an elite attack, Oakland has enough homer pedigree to keep pace, and the starting pitching on display gives both lineups a reason to contribute in what should be a high-scoring game. Expect runs in the beginning, bullpen stress in the later innings, and a final score that surpasses the total.

Jim's Play: 976. Dodgers/Athletics OVER

Jim Feist likes the UNDER in Sunday’ s Seattle Mariners and Cleveland Guardians game and when you get a number like 7.5 in a total, it’ s asking way too much out of two offenses that haven’ t consistently produced crooked numbers on the board. Both teams have hit late this season, but have yet to put together games where their offenses roll from start to finish.

With the total sitting at 7.5 Seattle and Cleveland are looking at another low-scoring, grind-it-out type game where runs will be at a premium and you earn one at a time.

Start with the pitching matchup. Seattle will roll with Emerson Hancock who is 5-4 with a 3.60 ERA and 81 strikeouts, while Cleveland counters with Gavin Williams who is 9-4 with a 3.82 ERA and 111 strikeouts. Neither of these guys need to be Cy Young finalists for this under to hit. Simply hold opposing teams to prevent the big inning and both of these starters have the arsenal to keep this game in check through five-plus innings.

Seattle’ s offense is ground zero for looking underneath in this matchup. They simply haven’ t scored enough runs this season, and even when they get those late hits, the Mariners just haven’ t been able to string together consistent offense for a full game. That will come into play against Williams who boasts plenty of swing-and-miss ability on his pitch arsenal and should be able to work Seattle hitters deep into their at-bats.

As bad as Seattle’ s offense has been Cleveland hasn’t exactly set the league on fire either. Cleveland has had some inconsistent lineup play this season and hasn’t had their lead run producer for over a month. Cleveland did scratch across enough runs to take the ballgame Saturday night but that contest still finished under eight runs. The game on Friday stayed at only four total runs.

A series that tends to play low adds up to pitching and defense winning games with just a handful of tense scoring situations. This also feels like one of those Sunday getaway games where teams lean on starters/pitching matchups and utilize their bullpens instead of letting it open up offensively. If Hancock prevents Cleveland from stacking runs early and Williams limits Seattle’ MLB Pick to win the Under option.

Jim's Play: 915. Mariners/Guardians UNDER (AL Total of the Month)

Jim Feist is looking at the OVER in Saturday’s Washington Nationals and Baltimore Orioles game. This contest has all the makings of one that can exceed the total. With the number falling between 8.5 and 9, there is enough room on the board for both teams to do their jobs, especially with two starters who have been good enough to gain some respect but are by no means untouchable in a game that could shift quickly once traffic builds.

Washington will start Foster Griffin (8-2 with a 3.15 ERA and 89 strikeouts) while Baltimore will counter with Brandon Young (6-2 with a 3.07 ERA and 49 strikeouts). On paper those statistics may indicate a game with limited scoring, but this is where those in search of values tend to find it. Sure both pitchers have quality numbers, but neither stand out as shutdown guys when matching up against offenses that are more than capable of creating runs from top to bottom.

Washington has been one of the better scoring teams in the game hitting for a 5.3 run average. Baltimore has not been quite as potent but still puts up 4.6 runs per game and has enough offense to reach its half of the total especially when playing at home.

It’s also the type of game where one big inning can change everything. Baltimore just returned home and should feel more comfortable offensively in this spot. Griffin has had a solid season but Washington’s lineup scares me a lot more than a team you want to lay tickets against.

Both teams have the capability of posting a crooked number which should make the total much more attractive than you would believe just by looking at the starting pitchers ERA’s.

This is exactly what Jim Feist likes to attack when game planning for the week. The number is right where you want it to be, both sides have the ability to hit and this matchup has enough hidden potential to finish over before the game is complete. Slide them all together and take the OVER in Saturday’s Battle of the Beltways.

Jim's Play: 977. Nationals / Orioles OVER 

Jim Feist’ s Friday MLB Total sports betting pick features the OVER in the Colorado Rockies vs Minnesota Twins game, and the pitching matchup alone is why we can expect this game to go OVER the number. Tomoyuki Sugano (8-4 with a 4.31 ERA and 46 strikeouts) gets the ball for Colorado while Minnesota counters with Taj Bradley (6-3 with a 4.11 ERA and 84 strikeouts). Both starters have been hittable and both have the type of pitching profiles that allow this game to reach, and perhaps exceed, expectations.

Sugano has done a nice job of winning games, but he is not going to strike you out and routinely give opposing lineups chances to put the ball in play. Bradley has better swing-and-miss stuff but has also shown vulnerability when it comes to allowing runs and baserunners. That’s what you want to see if you’re looking to bet the over. With both starters carrying ERAs above 4.00, you have a total sitting between 8.5 and 9 and it looks extremely attainable.

The Twins have the lineup that can absolutely mash at home and they are going up against a pitcher that allows contact and will not overpower this lineup. Minnesota has the power to hang a crooked number early and there is nothing faster than that to get an OVER going. Colorado doesn’t have to win this game offensively, but the Rockies lineup has enough power hitters in the middle of their lineup to capitalize if Bradley leaves anything over the middle of the plate.

Speaking of middle innings…bullpens can absolutely play a role in this game going OVER the number. If either of these starters happens to run into trouble middle to late, there’s a good chance we see this game open up even more than anticipated. Those are all reasons why we love the OVER in this spot. You have two average-ish starters who are rather susceptible in nearly every statistical category. You have two offenses that can produce power and a total that still bakes in plenty of low-scoring outcomes (think 6-4, 7-3, or 7-4).

We’re expecting runs on Friday night. Both starters enter with ERA’s over 4.00 and neither pitcher profiles as someone who is going to dominate from start to finish. When you put it all together you get a juicy total that has all the makings of going OVER the number and cashing as one of our recommended Jim Feist- styled Friday totals.

Jim's Play: 929. Rockies / Twins OVER

Jim Feist’s WNBA Total of the Month for June is on the OVER in Friday’s Portland Fire vs. Chicago Sky matchup. This total looks too low for two teams that have already played games of 181 and 179 points against each other this season. The first two meetings both flew over this number, and the matchup still points to another fast-paced, high-scoring game.

Chicago just showed exactly how this matchup can get loose, putting up 101 points in Wednesday’s win while dominating inside and getting production from all over the floor. The Sky had seven players score in double figures and controlled the paint and second-chance opportunities, which is a major reason this rematch is set up for more points. When a team can score that efficiently without relying only on three-point shooting, the over becomes very dangerous.

Portland should help push this game over as well. The Fire shot just 32 percent in that last meeting, which is far below their normal offensive standard, so there is strong reason to expect better scoring production in the rematch. Both teams also allow plenty of points on the defensive end, and with the total sitting at 173.5, this number still looks short based on their head-to-head history and season-long defensive results.

Everything lines up for another high-scoring battle on Friday. The earlier matchups sailed over, Chicago is playing with confidence offensively, and Portland is in a strong bounce-back shooting spot. Put it all together and this game has the look of another scoreboard burner, making the OVER the right side and a strong WNBA Total of the Month release for Jim Feist.

Jim's Play: 603. Por Fire / Chi Sky OVER (June Total of the Month)

We start with the injuries. Both teams lost their starting point guards to injury before this game. Los Angeles will be without Kelsey Plum for at least four weeks due to a lower left leg injury, and Toronto has been without Brittney Sykes who has been out with a foot injury. Plum averaged 23.9 points and 6.4 assists while Sykes was leading Toronto at 20.1 points per game. That’s a lot of offense going straight to the sidelines.

Throw in that this number is also inflated by how these two matched up earlier in the season. Toronto and Los Angeles played two games in May, splitting the season series at 99-95 and 106-96, but those results are in the books before Plum and Sykes were injured. Expecting both squads to play like they did in their first two meetings with their current rotations is risky, especially when their best players are no longer available.

One more thing to note is that the total is sitting pretty high where it is at right now without a lot of adjustment from the oddsmaker. Either way you look at it, you’re asking these two teams without Plum and Sykes to still score as efficiently as when they had their lead guards. Toronto has scored 87, 101, and 91 points in its last three games without Sykes, showing some inconsistency on offense, while the Sparks scored 58 points in a loss to Golden State and 83 points in a loss to Minnesota before getting past New York with 98 points without Plum being 100%.

I do think the cleanest reason to take the under is that both teams have added incentive to play in the half court. Toronto is forced to start Marina Mabrey and rely on her to do most of the scoring while Los Angeles lost one of the  best guards in the league. In situations like this, games usually have longer possessions and fewer bail-out baskets late in the shot clock. The pressure will be on role players to step up and that usually leads to lower scores.

Despite these teams playing well over 200 points their first two meetings, this one is shaping up completely different. Plum will be out, Sykes is still sidelined, and the posted total is high. Take the under here on Thursday. 

Jim's Play: 657. LA Sparks / Tor Tempo UNDER 

The under feels like a great play on Wednesday after Shota Imanaga was locked in as the Cubs starter against Sean Manaea and the Mets. Once you know its Imanaga and not just some TBD name floating around, this stops being a sneaky pitching unknown and turns into a favorable lefty-on-lefty matchup where both guys should be able to keep runs off the board. Imanaga offers Chicago so much more stability than your average TBD moniker while Manaea has been muzzy enough to keep New York in these types of games lately. Just getting away from bombs being hit every other inning is huge upgrade over what we saw from both teams on Tuesday.

The series opener is also in New York so you’re also getting a bit of a second game pitch count effect. This is the second game of a split doubleheader which typically equals weaker bats across the board, thinner lineups, and managers being cautious with bench players after already using them at some point during game one. High-powered offenses have hit mediocre at-bats in spots like this before, especially if this one starts getting deep into the evening. Citi Field also doesn’t do much to hurt you when good starters go head to head like we have here.

Last but not least, you have to realize Tuesday’ game shouldnt scare you off the under. That was a lot of runs simply because Kodai Senga got hammered early and neither team pitched well. This game has entirely different circumstances with Imanaga’s superior command profile and Manaea being able to keep pace for at least a few innings. If both starters do their job through the first five or six, Ill take my chances with this staying inside and low.

Jim's Play: 903. Cubs/Mets UNDER 

The biggest reason to think Pirates vs. Oakland will go over the total Monday is this number is rather high at 10.5. However, we still like the chances of plenty of offense being scored because both teams can put up runs and neither pitching matchup strikes us as being full shutdown caliber. Pittsburgh has averaged nearly 5.0 runs per game by tallying 359 runs in 72 outings, while Oakland has hit 92 homers and owns a higher slugging percentage than the Pirates (.417 to .402). The Pirates are starting Jared Jones, who has only started three games all season and has thrown a total of just 13 1/3 innings on the year, and the Pirates are still controlling his usage rather than letting him go deep into games. Why does that matter? Well, it significantly increases the chances this becomes a bullpen-heavy game from the get-go.

Oakland’s staff got lit up Sunday, so the over seems even more likely when you consider how the A’s bullpen is trending into this game. Oakland got pounded 23-9 by Colorado, so pitchers and catchers were hardly eased into Monday’s action. Oakland’s bullpen was simply destroyed in Denver, so expect another throwing-around-the-ballpark day in Sacramento. Reuters added Oakland suffered through some “wild outings” during its recent stint in Las Vegas, and while that may just be noise considering Oakland returned to Sacramento on Sunday, the bigger picture is Oakland’s pitching staff has been rather erratic all season. Oakland has the slight edge on paper with starter J.T. Ginn, but he allowed five runs on eight hits during his most recent start and Oakland’s team ERA and WHIP (4.85 and 1.44) are just shaky enough to keep this game within Pittsburgh’s reach.

Both of these offenses have also been pretty good as of late. Oakland had 15 hits and scored nine runs even in Sunday’s blowup and has now won four of six, while Pittsburgh has the lineup to hurt you if Ginn is remotely off his game (17 homers and 46 RBIs from Lowe). If Jones is limited early, Oakland’s bullpen is coming off a wild day and both teams have enough power to change the game in one swing, we do not see pitcher matchup here. This game looks to eclipse that posted total quite easily here on Monday evening. 

Jim's Play: 967. Pirates/ Athletics OVER  

The strongest argument for the Dream- Tempo pushing under the total on Sunday is that the number, sitting somewhere in the low 170s, is a bit inflated based on the season scoring averages of both teams. If you look closer at how each team has played recently though, the games have trended toward lower totals. Atlanta gives up 81.0 points per game to Toronto’s 88.8, which should allow the Dream to have the defensive advantage in this game. Atlanta also will be without Brionna Jones while Toronto will be without Kiki Rice and has Nyara Sabally questionable, so there could be some scoring punch taken away from both frontcourts.

When looking at recent games for both teams, Atlanta defeated Chicago 82-75 on Saturday, which went under the 165 total. Toronto lost to Washington 86-85 on Friday night which went over the total, but the combined score of 171 isn’t terribly overwhelming. Washington is scoring 88.1 points per game this season, so their offensive output is much different than what Toronto will bring onto the floor Sunday. Chicago on the other hand, scores just 79.9 points per game and held Atlanta to 75, so even though Atlanta did score 82 there’s recent precedent for keeping their scoring in check. Atlanta’s lone game to go over in their last four was an 104-90 loss to New York, which went way off the board at 194. However, that New York team is currently on a six-game win streak and made 16 threes in that game. Toronto isn’t New York, and this game has the makeup of one that stays under.

Jim's Play: Take: 641. Atlanta Dream / Toronto Tempo UNDER

The Over appeals to me in this matchup as both offenses rank among the best in the WNBA. They’ll clash in a game with significant Commissioner’s Cup stakes as Minnesota and Las Vegas look to solidify their standing with big wins. Minnesota comes into the game averaging the most points in the WNBA at nearly 90 points per game. Las Vegas also has their championship offense clicking behind A’ja Wilson, Chelsea Gray, Jackie Young and Jewell Loyd. 

Minnesota hasn’t necessarily leaned on Napheesa Collier to carry the load this season. Rookie sensation Olivia Miles has changed the look of the Lynx offense and the team has leaned on Kayla McBride, Courtney Williams and Natasha Howard to produce. Minnesota ranks among the league leaders in shooting percentage and offensive rating and averages nearly 90 points per game.

Las Vegas will not back down from that offensive talent, either. The Aces come into this game riding a five-game win streak and scored 105 points in their last game against Portland. A’ja Wilson has been playing like an MVP this season as she’s averaging over 26 points per game. Chelsea Gray and Jackie Young have both facilitated good looks for their teams all season long. Las Vegas has thrived at home when they’ve gotten their pace up and can match the offensive firepower of Minnesota when they’re cooking.

I also like the Over based on the way these two teams play. Minnesota is one of the best offenses in the WNBA, plain and simple. And while the Aces are great defensively, they are much more potent on offense this season. The Aces’ defense has not been as elite as in years past when they won championships. This leaves opportunities for teams like Minnesota who rank among the best offensive teams in the league.

With both offenses thriving on efficient scoring, expect this game to come down to defense. When you have two offenses that can score 85-90 points on their own, the OVER becomes very attainable in a matchup like this with two deserving teams fighting for seeding and momentum.

Jim's Play: 635. Lynx/Aces OVER  

The primary reason to bet the Under is Game 5 is the biggest game of the series to this point. Now that the Stanley Cup Final is tied at 2-2, both coaches have to know that one more defensive lapse could determine the outcome of the series. There have been plenty of goals in the first four games, but high scoring tends to cause adjustments once both teams have a clear vision of where the other team is getting its scoring chances.

Carolina jumped ahead in Game 4 on net-front traffic, rebounds and fortunate finishing by Jordan Staal and friends. You can bet Vegas will do everything in its power to prevent that from happening again on Thursday night. The Golden Knights have been one of the best defensive teams in the NHL this season and after watching five goals go by their goalie on Tuesday, expect much tighter defense in their own end.

Carolina will look to keep possession of the puck and limit turnovers rather than turning this into a track meet as well. The Hurricanes earned back home-ice advantage and they shouldn’t feel the need to force offense if it’s not there. Low-scoring affairs benefit Carolina because they can play their game: forecheck, cycle, defensive depth and two-way excellence. 

Lastly, the Under is getting value because the betting market has adjusted. Most books have moved the total up. Whenever a total gets moved up like that during a championship series, those betting the Under immediately get extra value because even an effusive 3-2 final result stays UNDER the number.

We could even see improved goaltending from both teams. Carolina got a quality start from backup Brandon Bussi in Game 4, while Vegas will be looking for a rebound performance from its starter after surrendering five goals (one was an empty net). In a must-win Game 5, both teams will likely play disciplined in front of their goaltenders and limit odd-man rushes and dangerous scoring opportunities.

Simply put, the first four games of this series have been WAY more offensive than usual for a Stanley Cup Final. Both teams have everything to play for in a best-of-three scenario, so expect to see more tight-checking, conservative play through the neutral zone and general playoff-style grit. 

Jim's Play:  19. Golden Knights/Hurricanes UNDER  

The San Antonio Spurs and New York Knicks shooting OVER the total in Game 4 of the NBA Finals all starts with the number. The total sits at around 216.5. Game 3 of this series finished OVER as San Antonio took a 115-111 victory. We saw both teams can produce enough offense in this matchup when the game opens up and allows the stars to draw fouls.

San Antonio’s offense looked fluid in Game 3 as the ball movement returned. The Spurs finished with 28 assists between De’Aaron Fox, Victor Wembanyama and Stephon Castle setting their teammates up. Wemby had 32 points, but Castle scored 23 which took the focus off of him. San Antonio had other options to score when the defense focused on Wembanyama.

New York is in a good spot to bounce back on the offensive end as well. The Knicks put up 111 points in Game 3 with Karl-Anthony Towns being limited to just 11 points. If Towns has a better game for New York, then the Knicks are right back in the 110s with Jalen Brunson and OG Anunoby continuing to attack the basket the way they did in Game 3.

Lastly, the flow of Game 4 should set up the OVER in late-game situations. New York leads the series 2-1, but San Antonio has momentum after winning Game 3 at Madison Square Garden. If Game 4 is close once again, both teams are going to play their stars until the game is over. They will attack the rim and fill the paint which should lead to teams extending the last minute of the game on fouls and free throws. That’s what will ultimately push this total in OVER the number.

Jim's Play:  507. Spurs/Knicks OVER 

Washington has been one of baseball’s better run-producing clubs all year (scoring around 5.33 runs per game), while San Francisco’ hasn’t gotten enough credit for how hot its lineup has been over its last month of games (.277/.331/.480 with a 126 wRC+). Those are both good recipes for offensive contributions from both sides.

The pitching matchup backs up that thought process too. Washington is trotting out Andrew Alvarez while San Francisco will start Adrian Houser, who arrives for his start at 2-5 with a 5.49 ERA. Houser has been hittable all year and the Nationals’ lineup has enough contact, speed and power across the board with C.J. Abrams, James Wood and Dylan Crews to manufacture traffic early and often.

The Giants should be able to contribute because their lineup has lately while Washington is trusting a less-proven starter. San Francisco bats like Willy Adames, Rafael Devers and Bryce Eldridge have caught fire at the right time, and if Alvarez can’t go deep Nationals’ relievers will be forced to cover innings in an opponent’s ballpark.

Lastly, let’s talk late-game situation as San Francisco’s bullpen imploded Monday night, exiting the game with a nine-run lead in the ninth. San Francisco’s bullpen owns an 8.67 ERA in June and doesn’t have a dependable closer yet. If either Alvarez or Houser has to exit the game with men on base or the game stays competitive late, both offenses should receive opportunities to tack on runs.

Jim's Play: 961. Nationals/Giants OVER (NL Total of the Month)

There’s reason to believe both offenses have more recent life in their tank entering Tuesday, which is where the over begins with the St. Louis Cardinals and New York Mets. Both lineups have flashed offensive sparks recently; St. Louis just swept Cincinnati on Sunday with a 5-3 comeback victory, and both clubs have benefited from timely hitting, be it on contact or using speed. The Mets punched out during their series wins against San Diego and Seattle, including some nice at-bats from young guns like Carson Benge.

Neither Dustin May (3-6, 4.59 ERA) nor Freddy Peralta (4-4, 3.63 ERA) profile as shutdown options on the mound, which is the path to the over for this matchup. The series preview has them toeing the rubber in the opener, and while Peralta has electric stuff that can lead to strikeouts, I don’t expect great command from either starter. Should they allow runners to pile up early, the over is in play.

Granted, the Mets bullpen has not been awful, but their rotation has lacked consistency. The Cardinals are also playing much better baseball at the plate than they did in the season’s first few months. Give St. Louis’ lineup enough chances and they’ll put pressure on the Mets’ defense; New York has enough thump and extra-base chances at Citi Field to cash their own payroll if needed.

Early baserunners are the difference between an under and over in this matchup. If the Cardinals can carry over their recent success and the Mets continue to bring their best swings to Citi Field, this one could end up in both bullpens with plenty of runs on the board.

Jim's Play: 955. Cardinals/Mets OVER 

Why should the San Antonio Spurs and New York Knicks go OVER in Game 3 of the NBA Finals tonight? For starters, after Game 1 and Game 2, the over-adjusts lower. Game 2 ended with a final score of 105-104, which stayed UNDER the majority of posted totals but still indicated both teams can manufacture offense late in a close Finals environment.

The series heads to Madison Square Garden with New York up 2-0, and MSG will certainly help juice the Knicks offense in their first NBA Finals home game since 1999.

Brunson is clearly New York’s closer at this point, but Karl-Anthony Towns led the team with 21 points and 13 rebounds in Game 2, which allows the Knicks another proven scoring outlet inside the paint and on the offensive glass. Brunson, Towns, OG Anunoby and Mikal Bridges cooking early means we could see the Knicks push toward the 110s.

0-2 is not a sustainable record for the Spurs, so they cannot afford another game where their offense slows down late. Victor Wembanyama must be aggressive early and often. Game 2 ended with the Spurs on the final possession after Wembanyama had a turnover and then airballed the potential game winner, so San Antonio was right in the mix despite not having a great offensive night. Look for faster pace, more attacks at the rim and late-game foul shots in Game 3.

My preferred over scenario is a competitive game where New York’s home atmosphere leads to a quicker pace, San Antonio responds with Wemby and De’Aaron Fox attacking early and often, and the fourth quarter is elongated by fouls. If both teams climb into the low 110s, this total clears.

Jim's Play: 505. Spurs/Knicks OVER 

The key reason why the Washington Nationals and Arizona Diamondbacks should hit OVER the total Sunday starts with the offensive side of the ball. Washington has been one of baseball’s best run-producing teams this year, leading MLB with 351 total runs and also ranking first in runs in the first inning with 51, so they aren’t going to be a team that has to sit around and wait for offense to happen. They were just able to beat Arizona 6-1 on Saturday with early power from Curtis Mead and Dylan Crews and have shown they can score runs on the road.

The pitching matchup should allow runs to fly as well. Arizona will start Mike Soroka while Washington turns to Cade Cavalli. Soroka has been decent this year, but Washington’ lineup has too many bats cooking right now for them to not pressure him early. Cavalli has proven talent, but Arizona is at Chase Field at home and should be gifted a quality bounce-back opportunity after collecting two total runs across games one and two.

Arizona’ bats haven’t been very loud but could help push this total over if the number gets low enough. They still have enough offensive talent with Ketel Marte, Corbin Carroll and their lineup behind him to wake up at home, especially against a Nationals team that likely won’t need much offense to push runs across early. Washington has also played well away from D.C., posting a 21-12 record on the road. Expect both teams to put enough runs on the board that Arizona will chase this total down. I want to see early traffic on Washington’s starter followed by Arizona pounding away at home. Give me the over in this one. 

Jim's Play: 957. Nationals /D'Backs OVER 

The Chicago White Sox and Philadelphia Phillies hitting the OVER on Sunday all comes down to starting pitching. Chicago projects to roll with Tyler Gilbert, who owns a 20.25 ERA in his limited MLB work to date, against Philadelphia starter Aaron Nola and his 3-4 record and 5.55 ERA. That puts an early crooked inning on the board right out of the gate for both lineups at Citizens Bank Park, where the ball flies and mistakes are just waiting to leave the yard.

The matchup also saw runs scored easily enough on Saturday. Chicago won, 6-3, as they jumped starter Andrew Painter early for a four-run first inning. Chicago added two more runs on solo homers from Colson Montgomery and Jacob Gonzalez. The Phillies answered though with home runs of their own from Alec Bohm and Brandon Marsh.

Nola may come into this one with better name value than his performance currently warrants, but even his numbers this season indicate he’s beatable. If the White Sox can continue to mash like they did on Saturday, they can keep traffic on the bases and score in an inning again. Conversely, Gilbert’s high ERA sets up the Phillies to bounce back nicely against a starting pitcher, especially when their power bats have a lefty in a bandbox of a stadium to attack. 

Look for Philadelphia to get to Gilbert early, Chicago to stay involved against 

a roughing-it Nola and both bullpens to get taxed with recording meaningful outs. Shakey starting pitching combined with both of these lineups posting power on Saturday makes the over the better play.

Jim's Play: 975. White Sox / Phillies OVER 

I'll be looking to take the OVER here in game 2 of the NBA Finals and it's because of the number itself as we have seen it drop after game 1 totaled just 200 points. This number seems attainable if San Antonio plays better at home and New York continues to get efficient late-game offense from Jalen Brunson.

San Antonio WILL play better on offense simply because they cannot afford to let this game slip away like they did in Game 1. The Spurs scored the majority of their points in Game 1 while leading by as many as 14 points, so we know they can create good looks against this Knicks defense. Expect Victor Wembanyama to get more early touches and for San Antonio to attack more in transition before New York’s half-court defense has a chance to set.

As mentioned earlier, New York also has no problem scoring the basketball. Brunson poured in 30 points in Game 1 and was incredible during New York’s fourth-quarter rally. Karl- Anthony Towns finished with 18 points and 12 rebounds while the Knicks also won the second chance scoring category 23-14. Second chance points are huge for the over as offensive rebounds lead to extra possessions, put-back buckets and fouls.

Lastly, both teams should be playing late and attacking the basket. San Antonio is the favorite tonight, but we know the Knicks won’t pack it in. If New York stays within striking distance like they did in Game 1, both teams should be shooting a high volume of free throws in the final two minutes which bodes well for the over.

Jim's Play: 503. Knicks/Spurs OVER

Thursday night’s total is based mainly on the number. Both teams have enough offensive firepower to eclipse the total if the game stays at an uptempo pace. Golden State just smoked Portland 95-77 on Saturday while draining a franchise-record 18 threes. Minnesota comes into Thursday at 7-2 and boasts the league’s best record behind their improved offense led by rookie guard Olivia Miles.

Golden State’s shooting from beyond the arc is probably the biggest reason to take the over. Seven different Valkyries hit at least one three on Portland, led by Kayla Thornton’s 19 points and Janelle Salaun’s 18. That type of shooting stretches the floor and forces Minnesota to defend the perimeter. If Golden State even comes close to hitting shots at the same rate they did on Saturday they can reach the low-to-mid 80s.

Minnesota can keep up their end of the bargain because they have also been one of the best teams in the WNBA this season even without Napheesa Collier. Olivia Miles has ignited the Lynx with her pace, passing ability and shot creation. Minnesota should have enough offense at home to keep up with Golden State who will be coming off an emotional victory on Saturday and playing in their first tough road environment of the season.

Both teams should lean on their starters for heavy minutes and end of period free throws can push this total over the edge.

Jim's Play: 639. Valkyries / Lynx OVER 

The biggest argument in favor of the Vegas Golden Knights and Carolina Hurricanes skating to UNDER the total in Game 2 of the Stanley Cup Championship series is adjustment. Game 1 saw 9 goals score with a final of 5-4 Vegas. Vegas won’t change much of their game because they found success in Game 1 but when you see games like Game 1 there is definitely a response by Tuesday nights game. Carolina blew a 2-0 lead and Vegas stormed back. There were many momentum swings during Game 1. Game 2 will feature both teams playing a much more structured game, pinching less and valuing defensive-zone exits.

Both teams have likely looked at Game 1 film and identified the chaos as something they can tighten up on.  It will be hard to justify after Monday nights game but the market is overreacting to Game 1’s 9 goals. Playoff series typically balance out after a sloppy game 1 and it’s even more true in the Stanley Cup Final because both teams have more time to make adjustments to matchups and limit opponent’s transition chances.

Carolina will need to play their best game of the series if they want to tie things up. Carolina’s recipe for success is not trading chances with Vegas. The Hurricanes want to forecheck, win the puck battle, limit odd-man rushes and force opponents into low danger shots. Vegas is also much better served playing a structured away game now that they stole home ice advantage. The Golden Knights have no need to rush or chase offense. They can pack the neutral zone, protect the middle of the ice and make Carolina work for every opportunity.

Neither goaltender played their best in Game 1 but should receive much better support in Game 2. Carter Hart made 23 saves for Vegas and Frederik Andersen stopped 18 Carolina shots. If Carolina can prevent defensive breakdowns like we saw in Game 1 and Vegas can limit Carolina’s early rush chances we should see a game that hits the under.

Jim's Play: 13. Golden Knights / Hurricanes UNDER  

There are three reasons why tonight’s game should stay OVER in Game 1 of the NBA Finals.

The total  seems attainable if both teams play with normal pace and shot creation tendencies they’re used to throughout the season. It’s Game 1 in San Antonio, too, where the Spurs are favored by less than which typically means both offenses will likely be in it late.

As far as New York they come into the Finals riding an 11-game playoff winning streak and scoring hasn’t just been flowing through Jalen Brunson. Brunson has been great all postseason and gives New York a late-game closer, but Karl-Anthony Towns, OG Anunoby, Mikal Bridges and Josh Hart give the Knicks enough spacing, rebounding and secondary scoring threats to challenge San Antonio’ defense. Plus, New York has had plenty of rest heading into Game 1, which will serve them well with legs and perimeter shooting.

On San Antonio’s end of the over equation, everything starts with Victor Wembanyama. The Knicks will no doubt defend well, but Wembanyama presents such a unique offensive problem because he can score at the rim, shoot over defenders, draw fouls and create second chance opportunities for himself and his teammates. Bonus: The Spurs offense has been battle-tested after surviving a seven-game Western Conference Finals against Oklahoma City, which they won 111-103 in Game 7.  I'll be on the over here in game one tonight. 

Jim's Play: 501. Knicks/Spurs OVER 

Both arguments for the San Antonio Spurs and Oklahoma City Thunder going UNDER the total in Saturday’s Game 7 begin with the game’s location. Game 7 is in Oklahoma City. This is naturally a game where both teams are going to tighten up, because it is winner-take-all in the Western Conference Finals, and every possession matters more in Game 7. Both teams know that the winner plays the Knicks in the NBA Finals, so slow and methodical basketball should be emphasized by both coaches.

For Oklahoma City, their offense is the biggest factor in this game going under. Jalen Williams will miss Game 7 due to a hamstring injury, and the Thunder also do not have Ajay Mitchell. Williams averaged 17.1 points, 5.5 assists and 4.6 rebounds during the regular season, so Oklahoma City will once again be without key secondary shot creation to take pressure off of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Scoring could get tough for OKC if Williams is unable to go. 

San Antonio’s defense has also stepped up recently. The Spurs forced Game 7 with a blowout victory in Game 6, as San Antonio scored 118 points while holding Oklahoma City to just 91. Oklahoma City was held to 13 points in the third quarter, while Shai only finished with 15 points on 6-of-18 shooting. This defensive effort from San Antonio is a blueprint for Game 7: slow OKC down, crowd the paint and make Thunder role players take tough shots.

The Spurs offense isn’t clicking on the road consistently either. San Antonio shot the ball extremely well in Game 6, including making 15 three-pointers, but they’ve had shooting droughts in this series, particularly from behind the arc. At one point in this series, the Spurs were shooting only 31.8% from three, and if San Antonio’s shooting regresses on the road in OKC, they might be forced to play slow and win with defense and Victor Wembanyama touches.

Both teams have incentives to play this game slow. Oklahoma City is without Jalen Williams and will look to slow the game down to protect their shorthanded offense. San Antonio will look to rely on their defense and Wembanyama if their outside shooting fails them once again. Both teams also have everything on the line, so expect some tight, nervy play leading to a low-scoring game. 

Jim's Play: 567. Spurs / Thunder UNDER 

The primary reason to side with the Washington Nationals and Atlanta Braves hitting OVER the total on Saturday revolves around the talent at the plate. Atlanta boasts one of the most lethal lineups in all of baseball, while Washington has actually been better than advertised offensively checking in near the top of MLB in runs scored and doubles while also boasting a top-five OPS mark. Atlanta isn’t far behind their opponent, however, as the Braves check-in near the top of the league in runs scored, OPS, hits and slugging percentage.

Pitching and defenses also play into betting totals, and thankfully for over backers, the matchup fits as well. Washington will counter with Jake Irvin to start and he comes in having posted a 1-4 record with a 5.79 ERA. Atlanta will respond by starting Grant Holmes, who has a strong 3-1 record with a 3.80 ERA. Holmes has definitely been more consistent than Irvin, but the righty’s problems give Atlanta a very clear path to tack on runs early thanks to playing at Truist Park and facing a lineup that can manufacture extra-base hits.

Friday’s opener also proved this series can remain up for grabs late and head to extra innings. In that contest, Atlanta won 5-4 in 11 innings as Washington’s offense was able to cause some late damage including a three RBI night from C.J. Abrams. Atlanta was also able to scratch their way back late, tying things up in the 10th inning before finally winning it in the 11th, so both offenses have the potential to keep this game going past their starting pitchers.

The ideal script for the over to hit involves Atlanta attacking Irvin early, Washington manufacturing enough offense against Holmes to not fall too far behind and both bullpens having to make an appearance and log quality outs after both teams played an extra inning contest on Friday. Two offenses that can produce mixed with an unfavorable Nationals starter means this total has a clear path to finish OVER the number.

Jim's Play: 901. Nationals/Braves OVER  (NL Total of the Month)

Opening up with the adjustment angle as the reason why San Antonio and Oklahoma City UNDER the total feels incredibly logical after Game 1 happened. Sure, the game ended with a final score of 122-115 Spurs in double overtime, but regulation play was nothing like a slugfest track meet. The sky-high total actually owes more to two extended periods than it does two teams running the scoreboard up.

Victor Wembanyama had 41 points and 24 rebounds, but expecting San Antonio to put up numbers like that on the road just two nights later seems like a stretch.

The Thunder should have defensive adjustments ready to go as well. OKC is already down 1-0 in the series and are surely not going to let Wemby be this effective again without some sort of resistance. More paint attention, earlier help, and forcing San Antonio’s role players to beat them is what you can probably expect from Oklahoma City. Slow down possessions, more half-court offense, and limiting early-clock buckets is the usual result.

Adding injury reports into the mix definitely benefits the UNDER crowd too. De’Aaron Fox is listed as a game-time decision with an ankle injury and may not have 100 percent of his speed back should he play. San Antonio is losing one of their top tempo-pushers and creators downhill if Fox sits or is limited. The Spurs did get stellar Game 1 production from Dylan Harper, but expecting that type of production from a rookie guard in back-to-back road playoff games is inviting turnovers, late-clock shots, and long offensive stretches with no buckets.

Not to mention Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is at his absolute best when he’s able to control the pace of play and get to his favorite areas of the floor: the midrange where he can draw fouls. OKC is not required to have a wild game to secure a Game 2 victory. They simply need to play with better possession quality, smart shot selection, and avoid unraveling like they did down the stretch in Game 1.

The best way to UNDER hit on Wednesday is straightforward: Oklahoma City makes defensive adjustments to limit San Antonio’s second chance opportunities. The Spurs come back down after an emotionally and possibly physically draining double-overtime win on the road. Both teams operate from the half-court more frequently than not. As long as this game can stay out of overtime, the total has a great chance of hitting.

Jim's Play : 547. Spurs/Thunder UNDER 

Game one of the Eastern Conference Finals begin here on Tuesday night and I'll be looking at the over as my play.  The Knicks have home-court advantage, transition buckets, offensive rebounds and terrific three-point shooting. Cleveland counters with Donovan Mitchell, James Harden and a roster that scored 125 points on the road in Game 7 against Detroit.

New York simply has more ways to score, which is why the OVER is so attractive here. The Knicks have been exceptional shooters this postseason and one of my notes from their matchup breakdown showed they’ve been hitting 40.8% from three in the playoffs. Cleveland hasn’t defended the perimeter all that well either and now they have to worry about New York attacking the paint and hunting offensive rebounds. When the Knicks get second chance points and open threes, watch out.

The Cavaliers can do their damage as well because they aren’t solely relying on Mitchell to score. Harden is another playmaker who can penetrate, attack the basket and get to the foul line. He’s also good at creating open jumpers when the defense collapses late in the shot clock. Cleveland having two players like that matters because the Knicks will surely lock down at times defensively and the Cavs counter with offensive weapons who can create their own points when games slow down.

Injury reports actually favor the over too. OG Anunoby is probable for New York after practicing fully on Friday. When healthy, he’s been one of the best two-way wings in the playoffs averaging 21.4 points on shots beyond 61% FG and 53% 3P. Giving the Knicks another efficient scorer and shooter eases concerns about their offensive ceiling.

Game 1's can be slow-starters but both of these teams have enough offensive threats to get this total over the number. New York gets a hometown bump in Madison Square Garden and Cleveland will bounce in after their confident Game 7 win against the Pistons. Both teams have good enough free-throw and three-point shot upside to finish this game OVER the total.

Jim's Play: 545. Cavaliers/Knicks OVER  

Sunday’s Cleveland Cavaliers-Detroit Pistons Game 7 pits two extreme circumstances that favor UNDER the total.

It’s Game 7, which in the playoffs usually means tight checking all around. Sunday’s total is hovering around 206.5 which isn’t extremely high but still requires two relatively clean offensive performances while playing with the season on the line.

Game 6 ended 115-94 for a total of 209 but that total was inflated thanks to Detroit pulling away late while Cleveland’s offense ground to a halt. Cleveland only scored 94 points on Sunday and Donovan Mitchell was miserable throughout the game. If Cleveland can’t consistently score on the road in Game 7, the under is going to have a clear path even if Detroit takes care of business.

Slowing the game down is Cleveland’s best chance to win or cover. The Cavaliers aren’t going to beat Detroit running with them. Cleveland needs to limit Cade Cunningham, limit Detroit on the defensive glass and force Detroit to score against a prepared defense.

Both Mitchell and James Harden can create their own shots but Cleveland is going to be more likely to play with possession in a Game 7 than try to simply chuck it up. Preventing turnovers like we saw in Game 6 also favors a lower-possession game.

Detroit’s injury report also favors the under in a small way. Kevin Huerter, Duncan Robinson and Caris LeVert are all questionable according to some reports while other reports have them listed as iffy. All three players are perimeter players that can open up the floor for Detroit. If Detroit is missing one or multiple catch-and-shoot threats, that will allow Cleveland to focus on locking down Cunningham while he creates late in the clock.

Cleveland should set the tone early. If the game is tight and neither team gets easy buckets in the transition game, both teams will shorten their rotations and play more defense. Detroit will definitely try to feed off the home crowd but Cleveland has enough playoff veterans to slow things down and play a possession-by-possession game.

Jim's Play: 529. Cavaliers/Pistons UNDER 

I like the OVER here tonight in Minnesota. Games 2,3,4 and 5 all reportedly finished OVER 218.5, posting at least 223 total points. Game 1 was the only outlier with both teams playing at a grinder’s pace.

San Antonio’s offense has figured things out. They attacked the rim in Game 5 and ended up scoring 68 points in the paint, which is huge against a Minnesota team that is centered around size and rim protection. If Victor Wembanyama, De’Aaron Fox and Stephon Castle continue to get downhill and creating paint opportunities, the Spurs could be in the 110s again.

Minnesota reaching the over has a lot to do with desperation. They are at home in the Target Center with their backs against the wall. They cannot afford to play slow and hope they win a points race against San Antonio. They need Anthony Edwards to attack early, they need Julius Randle to make an impact as a secondary scorer, and they need someone like Naz Reid or Jaden McDaniels to make shots when the Spurs load up on Edwards. Minnesota is likely to come out reckless and that often leads to more fastbreak opportunities, more aggressive playmaking and more foul shots in clutch moments if the game is close late.

Few key players are currently ruled out for either team. San Antonio is without David Jones Garcia and Minnesota will be without Donte DiVincenzo once again, but both teams’ starters and main offensive options are available. This matters because both teams have been able to score heavily regardless of injuries.

Best over scenario: Spurs continue to score in the paint, Wolves match them with fast paced offense and free throws push the fourth quarter total higher. Line leans OVER based on series trend, Spurs’ efficiency in the paint and Wolves’ motivation to not go home defeated.

Jim's Play : 525. Spurs/Twolves OVER 

First reason the Pistons/Cavaliers game Friday hits the OVER is the total itself. The number opened around 209.5 to 210 and that is NOT big enough for a series that has started leaning into its groove offensively. Game 5 was 117-113 in OT, but even before overtime Detroit and Cleveland were scoring enough to get into the 200s.

Cleveland’s offense has gotten into much better rhythm after falling into an 0-2 hole in the series. They have now won 3 straight games and the main reason is Donovan Mitchell and James Harden have figured out how to run the half-court. Harden hit for 30 on Friday and Mitchell continues to be that downhill scorer who forces Detroit into fouls, rotations and late closeouts. When Cleveland’s 2 lead guards are both creating, the Cavs are going to be hard to keep out of the 110s.

Detroit is capable of hitting their number as well. Cunningham hit for 39 points and they’ll have plenty of motivation playing with their season on the line. Playing with that much motivation usually leads to starter’s playing heavy minutes, attacking the rim with more urgency and little patience if they fall behind. Detroit has enough shot creators in Cunningham, Tobias Harris and the supporting guards to pressure Cleveland’s defense, especially if they’re playing with a lead late.

Injury report leans towards offense as well. Cleveland is coming in with zero players on their injury report, which means their full offensive rotation will be available. Detroit is hinting at possible absences with Kevin Huerter, Caris LeVert and Duncan Robinson, but their lead scorer and primary shot creator will be available as Cade Cunningham is still in the lineup and Detroit’s gotten enough offense from their core to keep games competitive.

Late game script plays a factor too. Cleveland is looking to close it out at home and Detroit is playing with the “do or die” mentality of needing a Game 7. That usually lends itself to an OVER script. Both teams will be aggressive late if the game is close and late fouls will add to the total. If Cleveland gets up by 8+ Detroit will have to force a fast pace to lengthen the game out.

The under looked like a great play to begin the series when the games were slower and more physical. But as this series has progressed Cleveland’s offense has gotten better and Detroit still has Cade Cunningham playing like a star. The total is low enough where even a 108-104 type game lands right around that number.

Jim's Play: 523. Pistons/Cavs OVER

First and foremost, the environment this game is being played in favors a lower-scoring affair. This game takes place at PNC Park with temps in the 64-65 degree range and no significant precipitation or wind expected. That’s no recipe for explosive offensive games.

Pittsburgh’s starter, Braxton Ashcraft, profiles as a strong Under candidate in his own right. He comes into this game with a record of 2-2 and an ERA and WHIP of 2.77 and 1.05, respectively. The guy has been excellent at preventing runs this season and faces a Phillies lineup that still ranks in the bottom third of the league in runs per game. If anybody can set the tone for Pittsburgh it’ll be Ashcraft.

Aaron Nola may have a mark of 2-3 with a 5.14 ERA and 1.48 WHIP, but he’s still a seasoned veteran who can make adjustments on the fly. Nola is looking to rediscover his old form. Not only that, but NOLA gets to start in one of the more pitcher-friendly ballparks in Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh does have the ability to hit, but they are more “jam” guys than pure power guys so if Nola can limit the free passes and keep the ball in the park Philadelphia should be able to hang around without the ball bouncing all over the yard.

Philadelphia’s last two wins came against Boston by scores of 2-1 and 3-1. Pitching and timely hitting by Kyle Schwarber were what won those games for the Phillies. If Philadelphia pitches like that and limits Pittsburgh in the early innings they could easily keep this one tight and under the total.

Granted, Pittsburgh just came off of a 7-2 win against Colorado but Colorado’s starter only threw 2 innings and the Pirates were able to work into their bullpen early. Pittsburgh will not have that luxury against Philadelphia. If Nola can give Philly five solid innings the Pirates may have to play small ball in order to manufacture runs.

The OVER/UNDER lean will come down to whether or not Kyle Schwarber can go yard with men on base. He is absolutely smoking the baseball right now, but if Ashcraft can limit baserunners in front of him and Nola doesn’t implode the Phillies have a chance to replicate their last two games against Boston and keep this one UNDER pitched battle where the starting matchups play big and both bullpens are leaned on late.

Jim's Play: 901. Phillies/ Pirates UNDER 

My Pistons-Cavaliers play on the total Monday begins with the series trend. Game 2 finished 107-97 and stayed mostly in half-court, grind-it-out playoff mode. That’s the type of tempo we should see again in Cleveland on Monday.

Detroit has taken control of the series 2-0, so Cleveland will be playing with a sense of desperation. And when teams get that way, they often play tighter on defense before they open up on offense.

Another reason I like Cleveland to tighten up: their offense has been streaky. Donovan Mitchell can score at will, but the Cavs have not had consistent creation outside of him. James Harden shot just 3-for-13 from the floor with four turnovers in Game 2. He has just three more made field goals than turnovers through two games. If Cleveland struggles to manufacture clean looks in the half court from Harden, it puts too much pressure on Mitchell and helps the under.

Don’t forget Detroit is not completely healthy either. Both Kevin Huerter and Caris LeVert are questionable to play on Monday, and their statuses are notable because both impact Detroit’s spacing and depth at the guard position. Huerter has yet to suit up for a game this semifinal, while LeVert is nursing a heel injury. If either player is sidelined or limited, it could force Detroit to lean even more on Cade Cunningham, Tobias Harris and slow down half-court offense.

Finally, we’re in the playoffs now. Cleveland has no choice but to come out with a physical defense Monday. The Cavs cannot fall behind 3-0, so they will be aggressive at the point of attack, look to run more deliberate offense, and do everything they can to prevent Detroit from getting out in transition. Detroit has done a solid job of closing games offensively, but they are not a team that needs to press and get up thousands of shots to win games. Cade Cunningham can control the game’s tempo, get his driver anywhere he wants on the floor, and run down the clock.

Both teams should aim to pound the ball inside and attack the basket. Defenses are probably going to play tighter than the public wants to believe they will, leading to long scoring droughts for both teams. If Cleveland defends better at home and Detroit’s role players struggle away from their home building like they usually do, I like the chance to stay under.

Jim's Play: 509. Pistons / Cavaliers UNDER  

Home field is where you want to start in this matchup, as Great American Ball Park is a solid home-run friendly ballpark. Both offenses are capable of unleashing damage should starters leave balls over their fences and  both offenses have it in them to surpass the total in Cincinnati.

Houston comes in looking for more after exploding for 10 runs on four homers Friday night. Zach Dezenzo, Yordan Alvarez, Zach Cole and Christian Vázquez all went deep against Cincinnati’s bullpen. Power travels in this ballpark, so even though Houston will send out a different starter, their offense has shown it can manufacture runs in bunches against this Reds pitching staff.

Cincinnati needs to make up for Friday’s shutout at the plate to help their side of the over bet, but they have every opportunity to do so. They weren’t exactly gift-wrapped runs against Houston as they loaded the bases in the fourth inning but couldn’t bring the runners home. Situations like that can change quickly the next game, especially when playing at home. Cincinnati has been in some high-scoring games themselves this season as well, going over the total in 23 of 37 games and hitting the over in 14 of their last 19 at home.

While the starting pitching matchup isn’t necessarily pointing to an over result right away, digging deeper shows a few holes in both pitchers’ profiles. Houston will counter with Spencer Arrighetti, who despite posting a sparkling 1.96 ERA, has a much higher expected ERA at 5.73, indicating some potential regression. Cincinnati will put Chase Burns on the mound, who does have great strikeout potential and owns a 2.20 ERA, but he still has to face a Houston lineup that just had it going at the plate and owns a strong amount of power should he make one mistake.

As far as strong indicators for this total go, it all points to Cincinnati’s bullpen. Cincinnati essentially lost this game late after allowing five runs in the ninth inning and then being forced to put catcher Jose Trevino on the mound because of how few arms they had left. Stressing a bullpen like that in one game can spill over to the next, so if Burns can’t go deep into this game, Houston will get another opportunity to pound another possibly shaky bullpen.

Ideally Houston does the heavy lifting early on and Cincinnati can put up enough runs at home to steer clear of another zero on the board. Houston’s bats are hot, Cincinnati’s bullpen is nicked up and they’re playing in a ball park that favors hitters, so lean over in this one.

Jim's Play: 925. Astros/Reds OVER 

Game 7 is always exciting in the NBA and today's Magic vs Pistons elimination game I'll be taking the UNDER. Why? For starters, this Game 7 is sitting at an extremely low total of and we’ve already seen this series go there. Orlando’s Game 6 meltdown finished with a total of just 172 after the Magic scored 19 points in the second half and missed an unthinkable 23 straight shots during the collapse. When things get that close and ugly late in a series, history suggests the trend continues with another grind-it-out defensive game in Game 7.

If that wasn’t enough, Orlando’s offense is likely to be even more limited without Franz Wagner, who will miss Game 7 with a calf strain. Wagner averaged 20.6 points per game during the regular season and 16.8 points per game during these playoffs. That’s a lot of offense and secondary playmaking to lose for a road team in a winner-take-all game.

Lastly, there’s a basic series angle at work with the under simply because everyone’s saying it: coverage from this series has harped on how old school and grind-it-out the Pistons-Magic games have been, and even same-day betting content is saying “more defense” is the expectation headed into Game 7. Throw in Orlando being short-handed, Detroit playing at home, and both teams knowing a quarter-full of effort could end their season, and you have all the makings of a game where possessions will be cherished and every trip down the floor in the half-court matters.

Jim's Play: 545. Magic / Pistons UNDER 

I am looking at the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Chicago Cubs going over the posted total here on Sunday. Yes, it's a tall number to climb but I like this over/under as my best total on Sunday. 

Arizona’s Merrill Kelly (1-2, 9.20 ERA, 2.25 WHIP) and the Cubs’ Matthew Boyd (1-1, 7.00 ERA, 1.44 WHIP) sport ERAs well over what you like to see from a starter. When both pitchers reach the mound sporting ERAs above 7.00 (Kelly is even north of 9.00!) it only takes a little for games like this to take off.

That little starts with Arizona, which has a team slugging percentage of .410 (fourth in the NL) and at 4.71 runs per game. It’s significant because the Diamondbacks will not have to simply lean on one guy hitting well in order to push the total over. They have power across the lineup to take advantage of Boyd if he leaves men in scoring position.

Chicago, meanwhile, should be able to provide enough offense to go along with Arizona’s power. Keep in mind Sunday is at Wrigley, and the Cubs are batting .258 as a team. That’s one of the better batting averages in baseball, and as noted they’re also 21-12 overall and 13-5 at home. While Saturday’s win was only 2-0, remember Chicago has now won 10 straight at home. They’ll certainly feel confident in that stadium. 

Finally, don’t sleep on the fact we just had a low-scoring game Saturday. Yes, Chicago rode a great outing from Shota Imanaga, but neither of these starters are going to take the ball and dominate the way he did. Saturday’s total staying under really doesn’t hurt the over’s chances here because the entire game feels different when you have Kelly vs. Boyd on the mound.

Simply put, there are two shaky starters, the total is where it is for good reason, the Cubs have the firepower to hit at home, and Arizona has enough big swingers to take advantage if Chicago leaves runners on base. If one of these starters goes early, Sunday’s Diamondbacks-Cubs game has a clear path to going over the total.

Jim's Play: 909. Diamondbacks / Cubs OVER 

My Total of the month focuses on the over between the Washington Nationals and the NY Mets.  Mikolas entered Thursday with a 0-3 record and 8.49 ERA,  this will only be his first traditional start since April 8 since serving as a bulk reliever. That’s the type of volatility that can lead to early traffic, short outings and bullpen exposure.

Washington’s bats could come through with their fair share as well. The Nationals just beat up the Mets 14-2 on Wednesday to the season high in runs scored, and that came after a series where Washington already proved it could inflict some damage against New York pitching. The hotter a lineup is playing, the better a case you can make against the Mets on Thursday, especially when facing a staff that has already allowed some rough innings in this series.

Plus, the Mets can legitimately help push this game over too. They also have to deal with Washington’s historically strong track record against Freddy Peralta. Peralta is 4-3 with a 5.82 ERA in eight career games (six starts) against Washington, while Mikolas is 2-4 with a 5.17 ERA in nine games (eight starts) against the Mets. Peralta isn’t a bad play by any means, but that’s enough history for Washington against him that you cannot expect New York to hold Washington under a bar of runs needed to hit this over total.

When you have one starter with an ERA around 8.50 and the opposing team coming off a 14-run outburst, the over does not need both teams swapping hits like it’s a shootout to cash. Any old 6-3 or 5-4 type game takes care of business.

Between Mikolas being the weak link, Washington’s bats coming off a breakout series and Peralta not having enough history over Washington to suppress the over by himself, I like Nationals-Mets to hit the full game total if Washington can get into Mikolas early and New York chips in their normal home-run totals.

Jim's Play: 957. Nationals/Mets OVER (April Total of the Month)

I like the UNDER here on Sunday between the Boston Celtics and the Philadelphia 76ers. Primarily because this series has already shifted to a slower, more physical playoff pace. Boston won Game 3 by eight points, 108-100, and that 208 total stayed well below the common market range for this matchup. Philadelphia won Game 2 by a defense-first 111-97 score as well, so two of the first three games have hit well under a typical playoff total.

Philadelphia’s injury report is a big reason to like the under in Game 4. Joel Embiid is doubtful to play while he continues to recover from his appendectomy, and Kelly Oubre Jr. is also questionable. Losing Embiid hurts the Sixers’ ability to score in the half-court and forces them to generate more offense at the free-throw line. Either change can lead to much more uneven offense against Boston’s defense.

Boston’s health also points to a low-scoring game. The Celtics are coming into Game 4 with as close to a clean bill of health as you’ll ever see, and that matters because a healthy Boston team is typically at its best when it can defend without foul trouble, switch everything defensively, and force opponents into late-clock contested possessions. Boston’s improved execution on both ends of the floor was also highlighted, rather than trying to blow teams out in transition.

Game location is in the under’s favor too. This is Game 4 in Philadelphia with Boston leading the series 2-1, which means all the pressure is on the 76ers to avoid falling into a 3-1 hole. Games in those spots often feature more deliberate offensive possessions, shorter rotations, and more defensive minutes from both teams. Boston has already shown it can win a grind at 108-100, and Philadelphia’s offense might be short-handed again without Embiid, so everything is lining up for another game that stays under the posted number.

Jim's Play: 555. Celtics / 76ers UNDER 

The under on total points makes sense in large part because this series has already proven to be defensively oriented and grind-heavy in a half-court sense. Game 1 did end with a final score of 112-101, but Game 2 saw both offenses struggle at times compared to that pace, with the teams tied 46-46 at halftime before Detroit opened up steam with a monster third quarter. Orlando’s Game 3 preview explained that games have been more physical and defense-oriented than people realize, while Detroit-centric game preview content mentioned the Pistons would look to “muddy the game” with toughness on transition defense and energy plays instead of trying to play fast and open up a free-flowing offensive game.

The total itself is also sitting in a range that hasn’t really gone down despite modest scoring projections. Considering both teams in this playoff series like to play defense and half-court possessions are likely to matter more and more as the series goes on, that number isn’t particularly low if we can assume some level of controlled pace.

Furthermore, a major reason to like the under is Orlando’s offensive inconsistency. Magic-centric coverage mentioned how overwhelmed Orlando looked early in the second half due to adjustments by Detroit, while Detroit coverage highlighted how the Pistons’ defensive rotations and swarming physicality led to their success. If those elements hold true heading into Game 3, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Orlando fail to create clean looks again for extended periods of time, which would help an under.

Detroit can and probably will keep things under too, as the Pistons actually play their best basketball by defending, rebounding, and capitalizing on selective opportunities rather than trying to run and gun. Coverage on Detroit mentioned Cade Cunningham’s ability to score efficiently, but also explained that Detroit has excelled when games are ugly, physical, and dictated by defense instead of sheer offensive skill. Games like that typically lead to fewer total possessions and longer scoring droughts from both teams.

Considering all of these factors, the bet here is pretty straightforward: we have a tied playoff series, the total is sitting comfortably where we like it,  both teams want to play physical defense, and Orlando has already shown their cards by struggling mightily when Detroit forces them into a grind-it-out game. If Game 3 plays out similarly to how most of this series has gone, Pistons-Magic has a clear path to finish under the posted total.

Jim's Play: 541. Pistons/Magic UNDER

I like this Phillies and Cubs clash to go over the total on Thursday because the total sits at 9 runs and both teams have avenues to hit. The pitching probables as Cristopher Sanchez vs Edward Cabrera. Sanchez is 2-2 with a 1.59 ERA, which is excellent, but his WHIP is 1.41 which indicates he has allowed some traffic on the basepaths. Cabrera’s numbers at 2-0 with a 2.38 ERA and 1.28 WHIP are also good, but not overpowering like some pitchers in shutdown territory and these two teams have capable offenses.

Chicago Cubs hitting has been the real reason to buy into the over in this spot. They defeated Philadelphia 7-2 on Wednesday to push their win streak to 8 games and the Cubs received bigger offensive contributions from Seiya Suzuki, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Ian Happ and Alex Bregman. Chicago has been consistently knocking pitchers around and that’s a concern against Philadelphia pitching, which has been shaky throughout their recent losing streak.

Despite their recent struggles, there are reasons Philadelphia can contribute to the over. Writing about the Phillies losing streak explains Philadelphia has a 5.05 team ERA, ranks near the bottom of MLB in ERA and several pitchers have combined to give poor results out of the starters and bullpen during this stretch. Sanchez could keep Chicago scoring just by having a good outing for a few innings, but Philadelphia’s recent struggles with pitching increases the chances of Chicago posting another big scoring outing.

Chicago Cubs hit 5 runs on Monday, followed by 7 runs on Tuesday and 7 runs again on Wednesday against the Phillies. Chicago is no doubt seeing Phillies pitching well right now. The Phillies could still allow 2 runs or more in this spot as well against Cabrera because they have the power to do it with Juan Soto and Kyle Schwarber in the middle of their lineup. Cabrera allows some walks so traffic could build early, and he is more likely to allow hits as the game progresses into the late innings.

Buy the over in this spot because the Cubs have roaring offense, the Phillies have struggled pitching and a total of 9 isn’t unreasonable if Chicago continues to hit like they have this series. If you get another productive Cubs offensive performance and Philadelphia pitches is just decent, you have a nice path to the over finishing as the final result.

Jim's Play: 903. Phillies/Cubs OVER 

Free Play: A's / Mariners OVER 8 (6:40 pt / 9:40 et)

The pitching match in this A's–Mariners Monday, April 20 contest draws this contest to OVER territory with defensive liabilities matching up with both offenses trending in the right direction. Oakland has been swinging aggressively as of late with young hitters routinely producing early-count hits. Seattle simply hits better at home, especially against right-handers. Both bullpens have been stretched lately and neither has been sharp, setting up possible late-Inning rallies. With both lineups capable of putting crooked numbers on the board and pitching staffs that can't prevent rallies, this game could go either way and find a few ways to exceed the total.

The top reason to fade the over in Monday’s total between the Angels and Yankees is the matchup under the surface of starting pitchers. Angels’ starter Yusei Kikuchi enters with an 0-2 record and 6.75 ERA to go along with a 1.77 WHIP. Kikuchi allowed nine runs on 12 hits in his last 10 1/3 innings dating back to his last two starts. As dismal as those numbers are, it’s even tougher to feel good about Kikuchi’s profile while in Yankee Stadium against an offense that still has enough big swingers to do some damage even while slumping should he keep allowing men on base.

However, we can make a credible argument that the Angels can scratch across enough runs themselves to get this over the total. Through 16 games the Angels have already scored 73 runs compared to New York’s 65 and have 19 home runs to the Yankees’ 14. The Angels tallied 19 runs in their two victories over the weekend in Cincinnati and have already had seven games with at least five runs scored this season, so this lineup is not coming into this spot cold.

Even though Will Warren has fared better than Kikuchi so far this season, he is not lights-out enough to scream under either. Warren comes into this matchup with a 3.07 ERA and 1.30 WHIP, both of which are decent numbers, but not great enough to completely suppress an Angels team that has seen production from a variety of bats lately.

It’s fairly simple really: the Angels hit enough to pose some threat against New York’s pitching, the Yankees get a very left-handed pitcher they can attack in Kikuchi, and the total sits low enough where a couple of innings with multiple runs scored can clear the bar. Even with the Yankees in a five-game slump, this feels more like a game with two offenses that could contribute rather than a low-scoring pitchers’ matchup.

Jim's Play: 911. Angels / Yankees OVER

The over has a legitimate case here on Sunday as the Rays take on the Twins.  This is a matchup featuring two hittable right-handers. We know both lineups can hit because they’ve already put up crooked numbers in this series. Tampa Bay’s probable Sunday starter is Nick Martinez. Minnesota will counter with Simeon Woods Richardson. Martinez has a 3.00 ERA on the season in 6.0 innings, and Woods Richardson isn’t far behind him at 3.60 ERA through 5.0 innings. It’s solid on paper but not a dream matchup that should limit offense right out of the gate.

The other reason to lean over in this spot: The flow of recent games. Minnesota took game one of the series with a 10-4 win on Friday. Tampa Bay answered the next day with a 7-1 victory. Games one and two totaled 14 and eight runs, respectively. Each team has shown it can play a role in getting a game past a standard total if the right starter or bullpen cracks.

Speaking of batting order, Tampa Bay also brings a lineup into this game that can string enough together to cash an over ticket. Tampa Bay posted seven runs on Saturday on 10 hits. Add in the fact Yandy Diaz is still smoking, and it’s easy to see how this Tampa Bay offense can challenge Minnesota’s pitching if it relaxes for even a moment. Diaz has a  .424 average with two homers and 10 RBI. Diaz is a legit middle-of-the-order threat if Woods Richardson leaves anything over the plate.

Minnesota still has a clear offensive path even after laying down on Saturday night. The Twins enter Sunday’s game averaging 5.14 runs per game while the Rays’ pitching staff had allowed 6.86 runs per game entering Sunday’s game. That indicates Minnesota can still come alive on the offensive end at home, and hitting the over does not always mean one team must outscore the other by itself.

Cleanest path to the over? Tampa Bay doesn’t stop hitting like it did on Saturday, Minnesota has a better day against Martinez than it did against Steven Matz and the game ends up falling in the 5-4 or 6-4 range. With two viable starters and both offenses showing they can produce in this series already, Rays-Twins over is the better bet angle.

Jim's Play: 909. Rays/Twins OVER 

I'll be looking at the OVER here on Saturday in the Cardinals vs Tigers matchup.  The Cardinals-Tigers pitching matchups create an over angle because both starters have enough volatility attached to their game scripts to put this game in scoring territory despite the number being low at just 7.5. Saturday’s projected starters are Dustin May for St. Louis against Jack Flaherty for Detroit. 

Neither team has heavy projections and it’s a modest number so the game could very easily go over if one starter struggles or there are a couple crooked inning bursts. The biggest over angle starts with Dustin May. May comes into this game posting a 13.50 ERA and 2.75 WHIP. That is the profile that can lead to early traffic and scoring chances for either offense. Even if this is just due to a small sample size, those are ugly numbers that suggest he hasn’t shown up with sharp stuff yet and Detroit wouldn’t need a monster game to truly do damage against him.

There’s even a reason to believe St. Louis could turn it around at the plate. The Cardinals offense was blanked 4-0 on Friday, but that was against Framber Valdez, who was able to give Detroit six shutout innings. They won’t get that kind of pitching from Flaherty on Saturday. Flaherty is far from a weak link, but he also isn’t coming in particularly sharp with a 4.15 ERA and 1.85 WHIP, so the Cardinals have a chance to right the ship offensively here.

From Detroit’s perspective, they already proved they can capitalize on starter leaving pitches in the hitting zone on Friday. Dillon Dingler hit a two-run homer and Riley Greene and Javier Baez provided support in the opener, and now the Tigers have to face a Cardinals starter whose name isn’t Michael McGreevy. McGreevy posted strong early numbers in that 4-0 loss. Detroit won’t have to score 10+ if they get runners on early against May, just a few hits here and there could bring home four or five runs by itself.

My cleanest over script is honestly pretty straightforward. Detroit earns some cheap runs off May to open the game, and St. Louis comes alive against Flaherty like they weren’t able to against Valdez. With a game total of only 7.5, we don’t need to see a blowout to hit that number. 

Jim's Play: 967. Cardinals / Tigers OVER 

Underlying the over or under? Let’s start with why the under has plenty of value in this game. There are two starters in this matchup with enough upside to suppress scoring early in the game, and the total is already trading at a mere 8 runs.

This game has both teams coming in with winning records, but it also acknowledges the lack of slugfest expectation from the market.  For Miami there’s Eury Perez. Perez threw 7.0 innings of 5-hit, 3 earned run, 1 walk, and 8 strikeout ball in his season debut. That’s the profile of a starter that can control a game for several innings at least. 

Miami may also just be a little bit overrated on offense due to the opposition they’ve seen early on. Friday’s betting preview of this series mentioned how the Marlins came into play leading MLB in batting average, slugging, and OPS…but how those numbers were padded by the Rockies and White Sox. Both of those staffs have not exactly set the world on fire through the season’s first week. Trim away some of that scoring potential and Miami may struggle to manufacture runs at will against a Yankees team playing at home to open the year.

Turning to the New York Yankees side of things, there is plenty to like about Miami holding its own early in this game. Will Warren is worth trusting above what his name may immediately indicate when compared to the over. Despite Warren with a 6.75 ERA thanks to last Tuesday’s Opening Day loss, Warren actually had a 2.08 ERA through that game and was lauded as having a 1.42 spring ERA across six starts. He also looked to have improved stuff and velocity. It’s not a guarantee of excellence, but it does lend credence to Yankees getting at least decent-enough starting pitching to not have Miami do all the scoring.

I’m takeing Marlins-Yankees under 8 runs as I trust Perez to at least get Miami through an early frame without being overwhelmed, think Warren has been underrated by quick-going-over fans, and believe Miami’s offense has caught a break with some of the pitching it has seen early in the season.

Jim's Play: 917. Marlins/Yankees UNDER  

The under makes sense here primarily because it’s not really an egregious number to begin with at 7.5, and also because both starters look to deep into this game on Wednesday. Sandy Alcantara will get the nod for Miami while Chicago counters with Shane Smith. When you see a game lined this low, it’s already telling you that the market is expecting something tighter and more pitching-dependent, and Alcantara is the biggest reason why.

Miami won the previous game in this series 9-2, but that total was inflated more by White Sox defense than White Sox offense. Chicago committed three errors Tuesday that Miami capitalized on, and Miami’s bullpen & Janson Junk held Chicago scoreless over their final 4.2 innings. In other words, sloppy play inflated Tuesday’s total. This does not always mean the shifts from day to day.

In Chicago’s favor, the under theory here is Smith simply has to be good enough. He’s not expected to be overpowering in this spot against a Marlins lineup that’s hit well out of the gates this year. Smith has to limit free passes and keep Miami’s offense limited to singles. If he does that and Alcantara holds true to form, then this stays under because Alcantara should be able to handle the bulk of the White Sox lineup.

My play is White Sox-Marlins under 7.5 mostly because the total isn’t extremely low to begin with, Miami has the clear advantage on the mound, and Chicago offense might have the hardest time from an individual standpoint.

Jim's Play: 921. White Sox/Marlins UNDER 

I think the over makes sense in Rays-Brewers for a couple reasons. First off, both offenses come into this one riding real momentum and we’re not getting an elite frontline matchup on either side. Tampa Bay will most likely start Nick Martinez while Milwaukee will roll with Kyle Harrison making his Brewers debut. Martinez can pound the zone and is no stranger to professional baseball, but he profiles more as a contact pitcher rather than an actual bat-misser and that can be tough against a Milwaukee lineup that pounded Chicago for 29 runs in their last series. Harrison will also come with plenty of unknowns in his Brewers debut and innings like that typically lead to traffic and scoring chances early.

Another reason I love Tampa Bay hitting in this spot is because their lineup appeared to wake up on Sunday, recording 17 hits in their 11-7 victory over St. Louis. Yandy Diaz went 5-for-6 with four RBI while Tampa got hits from Jonathan Aranda, Jonny DeLuca, Cedric Mullins, Chandler Simpson, and Ben Williamson. When a lineup strings together that kind of performance to close out a series, it’s never a bad idea to fade the pitcher and look toward the over — particularly when that other team is swinging it well too.

The Brewers have been one of the hotter offenses in baseball through the first week of action. Milwaukee completed a series sweep on Sunday and scored nine runs against the White Sox, including a late three-run blast from Christian Yelich. They’ve been getting contributions up and down the lineup and they’ve shown they can put runs on the board early and late. When you have that kind of balance in an offense, the over has more ways to cash because Milwaukee won’t need one mammoth inning or one hitter to do all the damage.

The last thing I want to point out is game flow. Both offenses have demonstrated they can continue to roll after their starters exit. Tampa Bay’s game on Sunday went for 18 total runs while Milwaukee’s went for 16. Bullpens tend to be wild early in the year due to both workloads and role players still finding their footing, so even if one or both starters escape unharmed, it doesn’t mean the over is dead if the middle innings heat up.

Asking both sides for at least four runs feels very reasonable to me. Tampa Bay is coming off a game where their bats exploded, Milwaukee proved it can put up crooked numbers throughout this series against Chicago, and the starting matchup projects more steady than dominant. 

Jim's Play: 925. Rays/ Brewers OVER (bonus play)

The primary reason to like the over here involves the starting pitching matchup. Chicago will send Davis Martin to the hill on Monday, while Miami counters with Chris Paddack. Martin had his moments last season, but he still posted a 4.10 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in 2025, indicating there tend to be jams in the batting order against him most outings. Paddack fared even worse, recording a 5.35 ERA across 158 innings last year. Simply put, Miami isn’t exactly giving the ball to an established force here.

Throwing last season out, we should note that Chicago is also coming into Monday showing more pop than meets the eye. The White Sox got swept by Milwaukee over the weekend, but they also plated seven runs on Sunday. Munetaka Murakami homered again that day, and Colin Montgomery blasted a grand slam during Chicago’s 9-7 defeat. Murakami has homered in all three games this season, so even if the White Sox struggle to hit for consistency the rest of the way, they have obvious power potential to help push this total over by themselves.

Miami isn’t doing anything to dissuade you from thinking this game could stay high, either. The Marlins have opened up 3-0 on the year and they know how to manufacture runs late in games. Miami swept Colorado this weekend, winning Sunday on a walk-off homer by Owen Caissie after rallying from an early 3-0 deficit. You like that for an over because Miami showed lineup resilience in that game, meaning they can keep adding runs on Sunday even if they fall behind early. Also, the Marlins probably will not go dead against a soft-touch pitcher like Martin.

Yes, loanDepot park can inflate runs a tad more than some stadiums, so do not expect a guaranteed slugfest in this one. But we can still bank on the over because both starters come into this game with an ERA question mark, Chicago has already displayed some unexpected power early in the season, and Miami is swinging the bat with confidence and timely hitting. This will be my MLB Total of the Month for March!

Jim's Play: Take: 917. White Sox / Marlins OVER 

MLB Total of the Month

I like the  UNDER in the Rangers-Phillies matchup on Sunday, March 29, 2026 because the game is lined at only 8 runs, and the matchup is built around two left-handed starters rather than a bullpen game. Texas is sending MacKenzie Gore, while Philadelphia goes with Jesus Luzardo in the series rubber match at Citizens Bank Park. Reuters notes Luzardo went 15-7 with a 3.92 ERA last year and also had a 2.70 spring ERA, while Gore is making his Rangers debut after a rough 2025 and spring. That does add volatility on the Texas side, but it also points to a game where Philadelphia may try to let Luzardo control the tempo early rather than turn it into a slugfest.

The strongest under angle is probably the total itself versus the likely script. With the number sitting at 8, the market is already pricing in a fairly normal offensive environment, not a bandbox shootout. Citizens Bank Park weather for this game is projected around the low-to-mid 50s with moderate wind, which is not an obvious explosive hitting setup, and the park factor listed for this matchup is essentially neutral at 1.02.

Another under point is that, despite Saturday’s 5-4 extra-inning game, this series has not been nonstop offense. Thursday’s opener ended 5-3, and Saturday stayed quiet for long stretches before the late rally and extra innings. Philadelphia had just one hit until the two-out comeback in the ninth on Saturday. That kind of game flow suggests these offenses can be contained for most of the afternoon if the starters are even decent.

Luzardo is the key piece if you like the under. He tied for fourth in the majors with 216 strikeouts last season, and he enters off a strong spring. If he gives Philadelphia six solid innings, Texas may not contribute enough to push this total over by itself. On the other side, Gore does not need to dominate. He just needs to be competitive enough to keep the game from becoming a crooked-number Phillies game early.

The risk to the under is obvious: Gore was shaky in spring, and both teams have already shown some late-inning punch in this series. But if Luzardo settles in and Gore is merely serviceable, this looks more like a 4-3 or 5-2 type of game than another extra-innings track meet.

Jim's Play: 965. Rangers/Phillies UNDER  

The total is sitting at 7.5 across most books right now but with some books shading the over plus-money and the under juiced. Overall, this isn’t a terribly high number to surpass by today’s standards.

The biggest reason to like the over starts with the starting-pitcher matchup. Joe Boyle (TB) versus Michael McGreevy (STL) is today’s projected pairing, and while Boyle has electric stuff, he also comes with plenty of volatility. Tampa Bay had to reshuffle its rotation already just because Ryan Pepiot was placed on the IL before the season even started. That matters because I think this game is more likely to involve some sub-par innings from Tampa Bay’s rotation rather than seeing a perfectly clean, ace-caliber start.

I also like the over because of what we just witnessed during the opener of this series. The Cardinals beat the Rays 9-7 on Thursday after combining for 16 runs (thanks to monster sixth innings from both teams). That doesn’t guarantee we see a repeat of those tallies today, but it does show both lineups are capable of finding holes early and that neither bullpen went into Game 1 unscathed.

Even the individual bats involved in today’s matchup tell us that we could see more runs scored. Junior Caminero, Jonathan Aranda and Yandy Díaz as Tampa Bay’s total bases ‘X-factors’ while Alec Burleson and Masyn Winn headline the Cardinals list. Burleson, Victor Scott II and Nathan Church all crushed Thursday in the opener for St. Louis, so we know both offenses have the potential to stay hot despite Tampa Bay scoring seven runs on four hits.

I'll take the OVER here on Saturday. 

Jim's Play: Take: 917: Rays/Cardinals OVER 

I like the UNDER here in the Sweet 16 between St Johns and Duke. The current total is around 141.5, which is not especially high, but it still may be a touch rich for a Sweet 16 game between two teams that are fully capable of defending and willing to play half-court basketball in key moments. 

A big under angle is St. John’s style. The Red Storm just beat Kansas 67-65 to reach the Sweet 16, and that game stayed controlled for long stretches before the late dramatics. More broadly, Covers’ trend page shows St. John’s has gone under in 11 of its last 12 games, which is a strong sign that its recent profile has leaned toward lower-scoring games.

Duke brings an under case too. Covers shows the Blue Devils have gone under in 14 of their last 20 games, and recent results support that this is not always a pure track-meet team. Duke’s first-round win over Siena was only 71-65, which is well below this total, and even in the second-round win over TCU, the Blue Devils allowed only 58 points.

Another reason to like the under is game flow. In a Sweet 16 game with a spread of only 6.5, both teams are likely to treat possessions carefully, shorten rotations, and lean on their best defensive lineups. Close tournament games often slow down late unless one side starts trading fouls in the final minute, and this matchup sets up more like a physical half-court battle than a free-flowing offensive game. That is an inference supported by the tight spread, the tournament stage, and both teams’ recent totals trends.

The simplest under script is this: St. John’s makes Duke work in the half court, Duke’s defense keeps the Red Storm from getting easy baskets, and the game lands somewhere in the high 130s rather than the mid-140s.

JIm's Play: 621. St Johns/Duke UNDER

Illinois-Houston is firmly in play to go UNDER on Thursday night for three reasons: the line respects both teams’ offenses, Houston wins if this becomes a half-court battle and few teams benefit more from tournament pressure than Houston.

Houston plays stout defense and values defensive rebounds. Their identity is probably the biggest reason to expect this game to go UNDER, because Kelvin Sampson’s team has once again found the Sweet 16 by winning ugly.

Control the game with D/Rebounding/Physicality, and Houston is happy. Including Houston’s local broadcast outlets, very few expect this team to play complete 40-minute games on the offensive end this March.

But that doesn’t matter most nights in the NCAA Tournament. Houston will gladly win in the high 60s or low 70s as long as it controls the tempo and limits possessions.

The Illini are a scoring team, but this is a much different test than what they just experienced against VCU. Illinois’ last tournament victory came in a 76-55 shellacking of Nebraska. Their last two wins have come by a combined 45 points.

Granted, Houston’s rebounding advantage and defensive discipline are strengths most teams Illinois has played this season can hang with. But that doesn’t mean scoring bursts will be easy to come by against the Cougars.

The environment alone should favor the UNDER. This is a Sweet 16 game with real stakes for both teams. It’s essentially a home crowd for Houston. Teams tend to play with more purpose when the line is tight and the tournament is on the line, playing smaller lineups and valuing each possession more.

Slowing the game down and playing through half-court sets is how Houston wins. Again, this is an inference from the tight line and neutral site stakes, but Houston playing with that sort of mentality feels more likely than an Illinois team that wants to run.

Finally, the UNDER is helped slightly by the fact that the market total isn’t higher. Both of these teams have offensive weapons. If the betting market thought this would really be a track meet, the number would be significantly higher than the high 130s.

Instead, it’s nestled right around 140. Which means you have to expect at least one side will struggle to score at will at times. Whether it’s Houston forcing Illinois to work for jumpers or Illinois forcing Houston to play in the half-court, one team is going to make their opponent earn it.

If both teams do that, the game gets low-scoring and teams in a position to win usually slow down the game late and don’t trade baskets. Betting against pace in this game seems like a smart place to start.

Jim's Play : 613. Illinois / Houston UNDER

There is value in playing the OVER in Dayton-Illinois State tonight, but the wager comes with some serious caveats.  The easiest OVER bet in this game is Dayton putting up points at home. Basically, if the Flyers hit their offensive stride and Illinois State has any kind of functional offense, the OVER is alive.

Illinois State helps its own case here too, as it has shown the ability to score efficiently enough in this tournament against competent defenses. The Redbirds just knocked off Wake Forest by scoring 78 points, and that stat is important as it keeps pace with an expected step up in competition rather than turning the ball over in games that settle for the low 60s.

The point spread isn’t so small that we have to assume this is a blowout, but it’s close enough that we can expect Illinois State to stay in the game long enough where both teams have to worry about scoring. That’s important because close/matches NIT games tend to balloon late as fouling comes into play, while games that are out of reach tend to be bad for OVER bets.

If Dayton hits their stride and scores in the 73-76 range at home, I trust Illinois State’s offense has shown enough firepower in this tournament to go along for the ride.

Jim's Play: 607. Dayton/Illinois State OVER

 The number itself is already being bet at 234.5 and Denver is favored by about 4.5 to 5 points. To reach 234.5 with Denver as a four or five-point favorite means that the betting public is expecting a high-efficiency game from both teams rather than a slow grinder. Denver enters the game at 44-28 and Phoenix at 40-32, both marks that frame this as an attractive Western Conference matchup where both teams will probably need to keep scoring pressure on for all four quarters.

The Suns offensive explosion potential: Both teams have enough offensive star power to hit the 115-plus range from either team. Whether it's Nikola Jokic vs. Devin Booker, Denver comes into the game playing well as it fights for playoff position while Phoenix still tries to hold onto play-in status. When both teams have a lot to play for, you are less likely to see a flat paced game or a bench-heavy second half.

Phoenix’s last few games have landed right around the total: In Phoenix’s last five games the final scores have been 120-98, 105-108, 100-101, 104-116 and 112-120. As you can see by those results, Phoenix has had several games that would’ve gone over even before digging into how they match up with Denver. When they do match up with a stronger offensive team like Denver the total should rise even higher.

Denver can keep up as well: Denver coming into Phoenix on a hot streak and Peyton Watson returning to deepen a rotation that has found ways to win despite injuries all year. Even if Watson isn’t going to be a headline contributor, a healthier Nuggets rotation helps them keep offensive pressure on for longer stretches of time and gives them a better chance to score when their second unit is in the game.

This game is lined as competitive, not a blowout. With Denver only being favored by about four and a half points, naturally the expectation is that both teams will have chances to win late and play closer to their expected pace rather than settling for a low-scoring game early. Close games tend to be better for totals because teams are less likely to alter their game plan and slow the game down, instead playing an efficient brand of basketball down the stretch. This also leaves open the possibility for free throws to climb over the total in the final minutes if the game is close.

One reason why the total may go under: Phoenix recently had an underscored game against Milwaukee that finished 108-105 and has played in the 101-100 range against San Antonio recently. Games like that can scare people away from the over, but ultimately show that the Suns are playing competitive games where both teams have possession late. Against Denver’s more well-rounded offense, those close games may actually help the over rather than hurt it.

Jim's Play: 557. Nuggets / Suns OVER 

The best reason to like the OVER is that both teams bring real offensive production. High Point is averaging 90.0 points per game and Wisconsin averaging 83.0, which gives you two offenses that are more than capable of getting this game into the 80s. Even if those raw averages come down a bit against tournament-level defense, they still point to a game with enough shot-making to threaten the mid-160s.

High Point especially looks like an over team on paper. The Panthers shoot 49% from the field, average 16.3 assists, and have scored 91, 75, 81, 79, and 89 in their last five games. That is a team arriving in Portland with offensive rhythm, confidence, and enough efficiency to avoid being overwhelmed by Wisconsin’s size or tournament pedigree. If High Point gets into the 70s, the over becomes very live.

Wisconsin’s recent form supports points too. The Badgers have scored 65, 91, 85, 97, and 78 over their last five, including three straight games above 84 before the Michigan loss. They also just played an OT game against Illinois that ended 91-88, which shows how dangerous their perimeter offense can be when the game opens up. Wisconsin is not always thought of as a pure run-and-gun team, but this version has enough scoring punch to carry an over almost by itself if High Point holds up its end.

There is also a simple style piece here: High Point scores a lot but also gives up 70.3 points per game, while Wisconsin allows 75.9. Neither defensive number screams shutdown tournament grinder. That does not guarantee a shootout, but it does support the idea that this game can be played more through execution and shot-making than through stops.

Put it together and the path to the over is clear: High Point’s efficient offense keeps it from getting stuck in the 50s or low 60s, Wisconsin’s recent scoring form continues, and the game stays close enough to avoid a dead second half. With both teams bringing 80-point potential, Over 164.5 makes sense.

Jim's Play: 733. High Point / Wisconsin  OVER 

First, look at pace and style of play. The Knicks don’t play particularly fast, as their pace is around 97.5 possessions per game. They also happen to have one of the better defenses in the league, at approximately a 112.9 defensive rating. That’s important because New York often wins games with execution and stops rather than run-and-gun basketball.

Secondly, Indiana has simply not been good on offense this season, and injuries haven’t helped their cause. The Pacers Injury Report notes that New York will likely be without Pascal Siakam while Andrew Nembhard, T.J. McConnell, Aaron Nesmith, Obi Toppin, Ben Sheppard and Quenton Jackson have been spotted on injury reports as of Thursday. They also come in riding a franchise-record-long losing streak, and in their most recent outing against the Knicks they scored just 92 points in a 101-92 defeat on March 14.

And I mentioned that game specifically because it played out exactly how an under scenario would look like. The Knicks won with stout defense, rebounding, and game management. There was no need for an offensive onslaught. Mitchell Robinson had 22 boards in that contest and New York held the Pacers to under 100 points.

Speaking of rebounds and games being decided on the glass, there’s even a game flow angle we can look at. The total is sitting at about 223.5 points but the spread is gigantic Knicks -15.5. Wide spread totals often favor unders as the team with the lead often doesn’t need to play as fast late and the team playing from behind often faces set defenders and can’t score with ease. New York could very well get this game out of reach early and Pacers coach Nate Bjorkgren could just lean on the defense and let the game get ugly in the second half.

Injury updates on the Knicks side of things lean toward the under as well, as. Brunson is questionable to play tonight, but the Knicks have found ways to manage injuries to rotation players as of late. Regardless of whether he plays or not, any kind of limitation on the Knicks’ top creator will suppress the team’s upside offensively, while their defense should still give them enough of a formula to win this game.

Between New York’s slower pace of play, Indiana’s injuries/issues on offense, the results from their last game together, and natural game flow of a potential blowout tilted in New York’s favor all point toward the UNDER 223.5 being the better bet.

Jim's Play: 523. Under Pacers/Knicks

Houston is in a strong situational spot at home in a game with major Western Conference seeding implications. The matchup is at Toyota Center, and current market reporting has the Rockets around -2.5 with the total around 226.5. Houston already beat the Lakers once this season and can lock up the season series with another win, which matters in a crowded West race.

The best argument for the Rockets against the spread is that they’ve already shown they can bother this version of the Lakers physically. In the first meeting, Houston beat L.A. 119-96 on Christmas Day, leading wire to wire. In that game and in preview coverage for Monday’s rematch, Houston’s size, rebounding, and defensive pressure were highlighted as real problems for the Lakers, especially by keeping L.A. off the foul line.

Houston also profiles well enough on both ends to justify being a home favorite. The Rockets are scoring about 114.1 points per game, own roughly a 117.6-118.0 offensive rating, and carry a 113.2 defensive rating, while the Lakers are allowing about a 116.8 defensive rating on the season. That’s a good setup for Houston’s scorers and slashers, especially at home, where their physical style tends to play up.

The injury and rest angle also nudges toward Houston. The Rockets enter with Alperen Sengun listed GTD, while Fred VanVleet, Steven Adams, and Jae’Sean Tate are reported out. Even with that, Houston just beat New Orleans behind 32 from Kevin Durant and a big two-way line from Amen Thompson. The Lakers, meanwhile, are coming off an emotional 127-125 overtime win over Denver on Saturday night, which raises the possibility of some defensive slippage on the road after a draining performance from Luka Doncic, Austin Reaves, and LeBron James.

As for the OVER, the clearest angle is offensive efficiency. The Lakers are scoring about 116.5 points per game with a 117.8 offensive rating, while Houston is at about 114.1 points per game with roughly a 117.6-118.0 offensive rating. Even if Houston plays a bit slower overall, both teams are efficient enough to get this into the high 220s if they shoot anywhere near season norms.

There’s also recent form supporting points. The Lakers just played a 127-125 game against Denver and a 142-130 game against Chicago, showing how explosive they can be when Doncic, Reaves, and LeBron are all generating offense. Houston has been more volatile, but its recent results include a 145-120 loss to San Antonio and enough half-court firepower from Durant, Thompson, Jabari Smith Jr., and possibly Sengun to take advantage of a Laker defense that, despite recent improvement, still owns a season defensive rating near 116.8.

The one caution on the over is that Houston’s pace is modest at about 96.1, while the Lakers are closer to 98.6. So this is not purely a pace bet. It’s more of an efficiency and game-script bet: close spread, playoff-seeding stakes, star shot-makers on both sides, and a number in the mid-220s that can be beaten without either team needing a wild tempo.

Jim's Play: 513. Lakers/Rockets OVER 

I like the over on Jazz-Kings mostly because both teams have played free-flowing, defenseless basketball lately. Utah dropped 124 on Portland on Friday, topped Golden State 119-116 earlier this week, and allowed 134 points in a loss to the Knicks. Sacramento has had similarly high scores in recent games too, with scores of 117-109, 114-109, 126-110, and 133-123 in its last few outings. That’s the type of scoring environment you like to see when leaning over.

I also like that both teams’ injuries are more damaging to their defense than their pace. Utah has played without Lauri Markkanen, Walker Kessler, Keyonte George, and Jaren Jackson Jr. of late while Sacramento’s injury report came down Domantas Sabonis, Keegan Murray, and Zach Lavine out, Malik Monk questionable. Losing that much rim protection and on-ball size typically leads to more opportunities for transition buckets, mismatch opportunities, and easy buckets.

Taking the over makes sense to me because these teams can’t defend anyone at the moment, they’ve both been trending in high-scoring games as of late, and the injuries lend themselves to sloppy lineups instead of lock-down lineups. If enough scorers sit for either team, it could limit shooting efficiency, but after studying recent numbers I expect this to be a game that finishes in the 230s, not one that ends up in the low 220s.

Jim's Play:  573. Jazz/Kings OVER 

There is a solid case for Minnesota and Oklahoma City to go under the total because the injury and lineup context points toward a less efficient game than usual. The official NBA injury report listed Anthony Edwards as questionable for Minnesota with right knee soreness, while Oklahoma City’s  injury report showed Jalen Williams out and Isaiah Hartenstein questionable. If either side is missing a primary scorer or interior finisher, that can drag down offensive efficiency more than the market expects.

Another under angle is that Minnesota has been more volatile offensively on this road trip than its season profile suggests. Reuters noted the Wolves scored only 106 points in their March 11 loss to the Lakers, with Edwards managing just 14 points on 2-for-15 shooting, and a Wolves preview described the team as coming off a rough defensive and emotional stretch that has hurt its overall rhythm. In a road game against the West’s top seed, that instability can lead to more empty possessions and a slower, more half-court style.

The matchup setting also supports a tighter game. Oklahoma City enters at 52-15 and Minnesota at 41-26, with real playoff-seeding pressure on both sides, and this game is at Paycom Center. That kind of late-season, high-leverage spot often produces a more focused defensive effort, especially from a Thunder team protecting home court and from a Wolves team trying to stop a skid.

There is one caution: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is still capable of exploding offensively, and Oklahoma City’s offense is strong enough to threaten an over by itself on the right night. But the cleaner betting case is the under because of the uncertainty around Edwards, the Thunder’s missing pieces, and the playoff-style urgency that usually tightens possessions. This feels more like a game played in the low 220s than one that turns into a free-flowing shootout.

Jim's Play: 561. Wolves/Thunder UNDER

The first thing that stands out is the matchup history. These teams just played on March 6, and VCU won 68-62, a game that finished well below today’s total range of roughly 138.5 to 140. That prior meeting landed at 130 points, which matters because both staffs already know the other side’s actions, personnel, and counters.

The second angle is Dayton’s side of the equation. The Flyers are not built like a track-meet team, and their defensive profile supports a lower-scoring game. TeamRankings lists Dayton allowing about 69.9 points per game, and their defensive efficiency profile is strong enough to keep opponents from getting easy looks for long stretches.

VCU can score, but the Rams are also facing a Dayton team that will likely try to shorten possessions and keep this from becoming a full-court game. VCU averages around 81.9 points per game, but they also give up only about 71.8, so they are perfectly capable of winning with defense and half-court control if this turns into a grinder.

The tournament setting also leans under. This is the Atlantic 10 championship game in Pittsburgh with an NCAA bid and title implications attached, so possessions tend to tighten up late, coaches get more deliberate, and half-court defense usually becomes more important than pace. Dayton reached this final by surviving 70-69 against Saint Louis, while VCU advanced with a 77-64 win over Saint Joseph’s. Neither result suggests today has to become a shootout, especially with legs a little heavier on the second day of a weekend tournament run.

Another under angle is that VCU’s pressure can actually help an under if Dayton struggles to get into rhythm. VCU’s profile shows a strong ability to force mistakes and create uncomfortable possessions, and against a Dayton offense that just had to empty the tank emotionally in a one-point semifinal win, that kind of defensive pressure can produce scoring droughts.

There is some risk because VCU has enough offense to threaten the number by itself, and Dayton has shot-makers if it gets hot. But the cleaner read is that this game looks more like a 66-62 or 69-65 type of final than a race into the 70s for both sides. With the recent head-to-head landing at 130 and the title-game pressure likely slowing things down, the UNDER is the stronger side.

Jim's Play: 663. Dayton/VCU UNDER

The best reason to side with the under may just be that Saint Joe’s and VCU both played in tournaments games as their last outings. The posted total is about 143, and both Davidson-Saint Joe’s and Duquesne-VCU finished with under 140 combined points. Saint Joe’s won 70-58 vs. Davidson on Friday (128 combined points), and VCU won 71-66 vs. Duquesne (137). Both teams just went through the grind of tighter, more deliberate tournament play that typically leads to lower scoring.

I also like the under due to this being a rematch of a regular season meeting on January 19 that finished with VCU’s 79-72 win and total of 151. However, that game was played on VCU’s home court and in a typical regular-season context. Saturday is neutral floor in Pittsburgh and an Atlantic 10 semifinal, so there is more incentive for both coaches to slow things down and limit their rotation. Possessions should be more valuable in this game.

The fact that both teams are pretty good doesn’t hurt the under either. VCU comes in at 25-7 and Saint Joe’s is 22-10, so there is no bad team expected to get blown out and let it all hang out here. Saint Joe’s just held Davidson to 58 points, while VCU held Duquesne to 66. Both defenses should be in form. 

Take the UNDER here on Saturday. 

Jim's Play: Take: 607. Saint Joe's/ VCU UNDER

Sacramento has been among the league’s worst defensive clubs all season long, hovering around a 121 defensive rating while still maintaining a perfectly respectable offensive footprint. Defense leaking efficient attempts is ideal when you’re betting an over, because if shot quality is maintained you don’t need a track meet for the total to hit. New Orleans can help facilitate that as well, Zion Williamson availability notwithstanding (they’ve scored meaningfully more in his minutes overall and play at an above-average pace with him).

Pace feels like the other pillar of this bet. Sacramento has lived around the 99–100 possession mark for much of the season, and New Orleans has been fine playing at an uptempo clip when their best offensive players are on the floor. If both teams settle into that range, it doesn’t take much else: Game just kind of plays out normally with average shooting/FT rate and you’re in the 230s. Important because the number in the marketplace has been sitting up in the mid-230s (234.5 or so at some shops).

Speaking of injuries, that can actually play into this over as well depending on who plays. Sacramento will be without significant size and scoring, namely Domantas Sabonis and Zach LaVine, but also Keegan Murray and De’Andre Hunter. When teams lose their core frontcourt rotation pieces they tend to allow weaker rim protection, second chances, and simply foul more. All great things when rooting for an over. New Orleans has Zion and Trey Murphy III questionable, both of whom would upgrade that team’s ability to score at the rim and shoot from the line. If Zion is out, I think there’s enough punch in this Pelicans lineup that Sacramento’s defensive baseline can still be low enough to reach an efficient number without sky-high shooting.

Bringing it all together, the layup over script is pretty easy to find: New Orleans cooks against a shorthanded Kings defense, Sacramento puts up enough points to keep fans happy in Sacramento and keep their starters in game, and everyone plays at an honest pace that lands somewhere in the 99–101 possession range rather than slowing to a crawl.

Jim's Play: 579. Pelicans/Kings OVER 

Look at the Nuggets–Jazz on Monday, March 2, 2026. There’s a good reason to lean Over in this spot because the market tells us it’s going to be a high-possession/high-efficiency game and the roster tells us that Utah will be more defensively vulnerable than they can afford to be against Denver. The total is parked up in the mid-240s (some sportsbooks have 243.5 while others are even higher), which feels huge until you realize that Denver is capable of erupting offensively whenever Nikola Jokic is cooking and the players currently available to Utah will weaken the paint and the back line. Lauri Markkanen and Walker Kessler were out on Utah’s last NBA injury report, and both guys play major roles in terms of size/defense. If they’re out again on Monday, Denver should have more room to operate in the half-court (post ups, cutters, corner threes) and Jokic will have more opportunities to utilize his passing to create great looks for his teammates. As for Denver, Jokic logged another massive line (35/13/9) on Sunday, March 1 and Denver tends to remain efficient when he’s heating up, even if their pace slows down. Lastly, Utah can shoot enough threes to help keep their scoring afloat; they’re averaging nearly 112 points per home game this season and they still managed to score 105 against New Orleans on March 1. If Denver’s defense isn’t switching with 100% intensity because of fatigue or rotation crunches, the Jazz should have no problem reaching 110+ in this spot. All these parts work together to create an “Over script” that’s pretty simple: Denver scores efficiently because they don’t face reliable rim protection from Utah’s frontcourt, Utah makes enough three-pointers to avoid drying up and the final score is enough to cover most posted totals.

Jim's Play: 527. Nuggets/Jazz OVER 

Both teams are right around the league average in scoring pace these days with LA sitting around 115–116 PPG and Phoenix scoring about 112 PPG, so the teams profiles alone get us to this total quite easily if the game happens at an average-to-high tempo. Both teams also project in the 101+ possessions range in this matchup, which further pushes things toward the Over because more possessions = more shot attempts = more transition baskets = more free throws. L.A. ATTACKS THE RIM AND GREEN PIECES efficiently off LeBron pressure/full court Luka playmaking and Phoenix has capable half-court shot creators which allow them to keep buckets flowing even when the game slows down. DEFENSIVE MATCHUP DATA indicates that there should be “give” on paint/scoring frequency, three-point volume, and free throw rate. Rotation/injury impacts lean toward more offense as well (ex. If LA is without a wing defender or rolls with more offense-minded lineups), and we’ve seen this series CLEAR TOTALS already (previous meetings have ended up in the 230+ range).

Jim's Play: 551. Lakers/Suns OVER 

NC State and Virginia have a decent UNDER case tonight due to the total ranging from 151.5 to 152.5 points. That is a large number for any game in Charlottesville when Virginia can control tempo for extended stretches. A lot of betting previews have the game being listed in that neighborhood already so the market is anticipating points scored which creates potential value on the under if the game plays even slightly slower than advertised.

The best reason to expect an under is game environment and game script. This game is at John Paul Jones Arena and Virginia is favored by about 5.5 to 6.5 points. Those two factors usually lead to a game script where Virginia tries to dictate pace, force NC State to execute in the half court, and avoid playing in a track meet. Virginia getting a lead also helps the under because it lengthens possessions and limits transition opportunities for the team falling behind.

NC State also offers up some situational reasons to go under. The Wolfpack just played in a highly emotional rivalry game where they blewout North Carolina. In that game, they played one of their best of the season and shot the ball extremely well while only turning the ball over four times. NC State will have a hard time matching that level of offensive efficiency right away on the road against a ranked opponent and even a slight decrease in shooting percentages can matter against a low 150s total.

While a lot of previews mention Virginia’s improved offense and propensity to score more points than previous UVA teams, that is exactly why the total is getting pushed up to where it is. If either team goes into a cold shooting slump from three or Virginia’s defense forces NC State into late-clock situations, this game could end up in the 74-70 / 75-71 neighborhood and stay under most posted totals.

Jim's Play: 615. NC St/Virginia UNDER 

Florida Atlantic University and North Texas under is one I like because the total has actually hovered around 140.5 for this game throughout the week. UNT games have a tendency to come down to defense and tempo control/tough half-court possessions, especially at home. I’ve seen several previews list UNT as a small favorite with a 140.5 total in Denton. Why is that detail important for an under bet? Simply because UNT’s game doesn’t exactly revolve around putting up crazy numbers. They have proved to be far better at preventing points than facilitating them (UNT is allowing 66.6 points per game, which ranks top-25 nationally in one publication). FAU does score more points, but they have also been less consistent on the defensive end and away from home. Games often slow down on the road against disciplined teams that force you to execute in the half-court. Bottom line: The offenses aren’t great enough on both sides to push well past 140. Last angle: venue/style of play. North Texas at home has turned plenty of games into defensive phone-booth fights throughout their wins in Denton the past few seasons. Even if you’ve read some handicap previews for this matchup, they too mention what likely will be a defensive battle in the Super Pit. Limit turnovers, limit FAU’s fast-break opportunities and force the Owls to score over a set defense and this game has a chance to stay in the 60s/low 70s on both sides of the ball and stay UNDER the posted number.

Jim's Play: 859. FAU/North Texas UNDER

A few scenarios lead to Cavaliers–Nets going over the total on Thursday, Feb. 19, 2026. For the most part, they revolve around Cleveland’s offense coupled with a Brooklyn lineup that’s slightly compromised defensively. The Cavs have been one of the league’s most efficient scoring teams for a while now, and even this season they’re near the top of the league in points per game and offensive efficiency, which bodes well for a “one team can do a lot of the work” over profile. Nic Claxton is also out for Brooklyn, weakening their ability to defend the interior and rebound, so it’ll be easier for Cleveland to turn drives and paint touches into layups, free throws, and kick-out threes. The teams’ last meeting went 131–124 Cleveland, so we already know this matchup can produce points. That total won’t be hit every game, but that type of game script means even a modest second-half comeback can clear a regular NBA total. Brooklyn’s profile as a whole (big underdog, inconsistent defense) also tends to lead to a “keep shooting to stay close” game tempo, which is another boost for the over because you get more quick possessions and avoid grind-it-out segments.

Jim's Play: 503. Net/Cavaliers OVER 

Portland/Minnesota lands cleanly in the over column tonight as both offenses will play in rhythm while their defenses have provided value in recent weeks. Portland's offense erupted for 122 points on excellent ball movement and volume from deep. When the Blazers play up tempo, their games typically get high early. Minnesota scored 138 points thanks to an 81 point first half showing how lethal they can be when attacking downhill early in the shot clock. Both teams share a similar recipe entering this game, with the Timberwolves showing top tier efficiency and elite transition production. Multiple scorers should create problems against a Portland defense that has struggled away from home and consistently allows clean looks and second chance opportunities. These teams have also trended high in recent years, with Minnesota rarely finishing outside of the 110–120 range versus this defense. Combine Minnesota’s ability to set the tempo and Portland's inconsistent defense leading to extra possessions, this one should play fast and finish higher than the number indicates.

Jim's Play: 543. Trail Blazers / TWolves OVER 

The over on this game makes sense tonight because the matchup naturally inflates possessions/high-quality looks and the number is priced in a range where it can be gotten to even if only one side really explodes. We’re seeing Pacers–Knicks totals around 224.5 at most books.  First, the pace/possession profile of this game ticks in the direction of the over. Despite Indiana’s season taking a turn towards awfulness, the Pacers have played faster basketball recently and when they match up with a team that can both punish the glass and manufacture offensive rebounds - like New York - you often end up getting inflated shot volume compared to an average Knicks game. Probably the biggest piece of this game that tilts the totals towards the over is New York’s knack for offensive rebounding this year (especially at home), which leads to second chance buckets and “invisible” possessions that totals tend to struggle pricing in.

Second, the injury reports actually suggest that both teams score efficiently tonight. Indiana is without Tyrese Haliburton (Achilles) and rookie Johnny Furphy (ACL), and then have a few rotation players listed as questionable including T.J. McConnell and Aaron Nesmith. When a team loses its primary creator your offense often gets uglier, but it can also become more simplistic: more early-clock action, more straight-line drives, and more shot attempts overall before the defense is able to get set. Meanwhile, New York has enough home court shot creation to hypothetically post up more than half the total themselves, which is why we’re comfortable seeing a mid-220s number even with Indiana dealing with injuries.

Third, the implied game script leads to efficient late-game scoring. New York is laying huge odds on the Knicks, which means that there will likely be “foul-and-free-throw” endings if the Pacers hang around the number with under a minute to play. Even if the game is mostly in hand, you can still get over if you get two empty defensive possessions and a free-throw parade at the end of the game. NY’s recent form combined with Indiana’s propensity to allow games to get away makes that outcome feel live.

I'll take the OVER here tonight, even in a Knicks blowout win.

Jim's Play: 521. Pacers/Knicks OVER 

I’m fine taking the Over in Pelicans–Timberwolves on Friday because of why the baseline game is inflated to begin with: the total is around 236.5. New Orleans has been one of the league’s most generous defenses when it comes to Overs allowed (120.96 games per game) this season, so even when they’ve faced middling offenses they’ve still managed to get into the 120s. Minnesota has the sort of lead scorer that can take it into track meet territory by himself: Anthony Edwards is putting up 29.7 ppg and the Wolves offense has been fantastic with him on the floor (118.4 offensive rating with Edwards in the game). The matchup also bodes well for easy paint points/breakdowns: team tracking data has the Pelicans allowing near the league’s worst number of points in the paint (52.7). That spells good things for efficient offense and limiting empty trips. Then there’s the injury/availability aspect tilting things further toward fewer stops: New Orleans is without Jose Alvarado (out, did not travel with team) and Dejounte Murray (out), guards who matter most when engaged on-ball or at the point of attack. Minnesota might have a couple names on their injury report, but they’ve recently added another playmaker/scorer in Ayo Dosunmu who should help them maintain scoring pressure (15.0 ppg, 45.1% from three last season, via Reuters). Combine all that and you get a Wolves offense that can easily reach a high number and a Pelicans team that only needs to “facilitate” in the 110s to top the posted total.

Jim's Play: 537. Pelicans / Twolves OVER 

Chicago scores at a top-5 pace this season (about 117.9 ppg), but they also allow almost as many points themselves (about 119.7 ppg). That’s a great formula for the over as Chicago doesn’t just score, they allow their opponents to feel comfortable all game long. Tack on Chicago’s speed on offense (they rank top-5 in pace at around 101.4 possessions per game) and you have more trips up the floor than your average NBA game, which translates to more total points.

Looking at how the Lakers score, the offense checks out from an efficiency standpoint (team offense rating is around 117 this year). Even if Los Angeles isn’t lighting it up from deep, they can manufacture a total like this with good half-court offense and free throws.  If LA hits the free throw line in the high teens/low 20s and Chicago continues to make shots, the over is still very much alive even if it’s not a track meet.

Chicago is without Zach Collins (toe) and may not have Tre Jones (day to day, hamstring). Los Angeles will be without Austin Reaves (calf) while Victor and Lakerpert are noted as other rotation players being questionable. Missing/limited players typically have a larger impact on the defensive end of the floor (communication, scheme, rotational minutes) than they do on offense making shots, and that inherently leans towards the total going up.

Long story short: Bulls pace + Bulls defense is why this plays as an over and with 237.5 on the board you’re essentially betting that Chicago turns this into a high-scoring affair where both teams play through long stretches where they trade buckets instead of trying to create stops.

Jim's Play: 523. Lakers/Bulls OVER 

Miami and Indiana face off for the National Championship here on Monday. I like this game on Under because the most likely championship script is conservative early, defense-first throughout, and a lot of points needing to be “earned” with long drives instead of quick strikes. Kickoff is Monday, January 19, 2026 at 7:30 p.m. ET (4:30 p.m. PT) on ESPN, and the main totals number showing across major previews is 47. That number is high enough that you don’t need a total rock fight to cash, you just need this to play like a title game where both staffs prioritize ball security, field position, and not giving the opponent short fields.

Matchup-wise, Indiana’s defense is the anchor that makes the Under make sense. They’ve been described as one of the best defenses in the country, allowing around 11 points per game and pairing that with an elite turnover margin, which is exactly the profile that forces opponents to string together long, mistake-free possessions. Miami’s best chance to score is still there, but they’re not at full strength in the pass-catching group, with at least one key starter ruled out on the injury report, which can push an offense toward more run game and shorter concepts, keeping the clock moving. On the Indiana side, they can be explosive, but a championship setting often pulls even great offenses into a more methodical approach, especially if they feel they can win with defense and field position.

Weather shouldn’t force an Under, but it does remove the “perfect scoring conditions” that can inflate totals. The forecast around kickoff in Miami Gardens is clear to mostly clear and around 60–62°F, which is comfortable, but it’s also not the hot, fast track environment you sometimes get in South Florida. Put it together and the Under path is straightforward: Indiana’s defense makes sustained drives hard, Miami’s offensive plan likely leans more balanced and careful, and if the first quarter starts tight (which is common in title games), you’re immediately in a tempo and possession-count game that favors a final that goes UNDER the total. 

Jim's Play: 287. Miami Fla/Indiana UNDER 

The Rams–Bears Divisional game projects to be an Under for a host of reasons, most of them associated with bad weather impacting offensive production. There’s a reason football games in cold, wet conditions often become games of field position and third-down defense (avoiding that big play); kickoff is Sunday, January 18, 2026 at 3: 30 p.m. PT (5:30 p.m. CT) at Soldier Field. Simply put: it’s going to be cold.

Chicago’s Sunday forecast projects very cold temperatures in the low 20s with periods of snow throughout the day. The Soldier Field hourly also shows game-time weather that feels even colder due to wind chill factor and the possibility of snow/flurries. When the temperature drops like that, the football becomes harder, player’s hands hurt, footing becomes questionable and offenses tend to play more conservatively with fewer clean downfield opportunities leading to stalled drives or punts/field-goal attempts.

That trend becomes even more important for Los Angeles as NFL teams that spend their entire season in domes typically run the ball more and take fewer chances downfield when playing in true Chicago winter weather. Chicago media is already highlighting the potential snow flurries and wind around the mid-teens (mph) leading up to the game, both of which decrease passing production and increase the value of simply not turning over the ball. With both teams likely looking to grind out field position in a divisional-round game, a predictable, clean Under script is offenses struggle with the elements and as a result, scoring is dictated by a few high-leverage red-zone opportunities instead of a constant flow of touchdowns.

Jim's Play: 393. Rams/Bears UNDER