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Freddy Wills NBA Picks
Date Match Up Rating Score Result Profit Lead Time Analysis
02-15-12 Oklahoma City Thunder -153 v. Houston Rockets Top 95-96 Loss -153 2 h 44 m Show
Thunder -145 (4.5* NBA POD) Been missing my last few picks by a point or too and I think this game is close enough to the point where it will be the Thunder by right around 3 if they don't cover the spread. To me I'd rather pay the 45cents and get myself a win than lose by 1/2 point or 1 point again which has seem to be a trend of late for me. The Thunder are one of the better road teams this year and they are also 7-2 on 0 days rest. The Rockets are off 0 days rest as well and a 6 game road trip so this is a difficult spot for them facing one of their conference best..5.
02-14-12 Utah Jazz +12.5 v. Oklahoma City Thunder 85-111 Loss -110 5 h 0 m Show
Pacers +3 (5.5* NBA POD)
Love the Pacers in this spot with fresh legs.
02-14-12 Miami Heat v. Indiana Pacers +3 Top 105-90 Loss -115 4 h 1 m Show
Pacers +3 (5.5* NBA POD)
Love the Pacers in this spot with fresh legs.
02-10-12 Dallas Mavericks -125 v. Minnesota Timberwolves 104-97 Win 100 3 h 16 m Show
Mavericks -125 (3* play) I see the Mavericks getting back on track after their 10 point win over Denver on the road after a 3 game losing streak. This team has double revenge against the Twolves as they lost by 15 and 17 this year. One of those times was without Dirk, but he's healthy and shooting the ball 61.5% over his last 3. Kevin Love has killed Dallas the last two meetings, and he returns after his suspension. Look for Dallas to really key on Love and that will be the difference as the Mavericks roll.
02-10-12 Los Angeles Clippers +4 v. Philadelphia 76ers Top 78-77 Win 100 2 h 16 m Show
Clippers +4 (4.4* NBA POD) I see the Mavericks getting back up for this game especially off their Cavs loss and their coach ripping into them. They should be motivated and I don't like this 76ers team as favorites at all never mind by 4 points. This line is a bit inflated now since people are now "not buying into" what the Clippers had been doing since they lost to the Cavs, but the Cavs have been playing some good basketball. 76ers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games as a favorite .5 to 4.5. They may even lose the game tonight.
02-09-12 Los Angeles Lakers +3.5 v. Boston Celtics Top 88-87 Win 100 2 h 56 m Show
Lakers +3.5 (4.4* NBA POD) The Lakers in danger of losing a third straight game. I think this team is too good for that especially going up against the Celtics. They should be fresh despite being on this road stretch they are actually on 2 days rest for just the 5th time all season and the 3rd time on the road where they are 1-1, but then again they did face the almighty Heat one of those road games where they were on 2 days rest. Here tonight I think the Celtics recent magic ends. Celtics have won 5 in a row, but who have they beaten? Maybe Memphis at home is impressive, but then again Memphis had them on the ropes the entire game before one run put them to bed. Here I like the Lakers to show their fresh legs and finally get a road win they have been searching for.
02-08-12 San Antonio Spurs +4 v. Philadelphia 76ers Top 100-90 Win 100 4 h 30 m Show
Spurs +3.5 4.4* NBA POD
Spurs have Detroit and NJ up next on their East coast road stretch and they should be focused in this one to get a win and go 3-0 vs. the East.
02-06-12 San Antonio Spurs v. Memphis Grizzlies +1 Top 89-84 Loss -108 4 h 7 m Show
I like Memphis despite the Spurs being red hot with 4 wins in a row including one less than a week ago at Memphis where they return tonight.
02-04-12 Philadelphia 76ers +3.5 v. Atlanta Hawks Top 98-87 Win 100 6 h 19 m Show
76ers +3.5 (4.4* NBA POD); 76ERS +145 (1*) I like the 76ers in this spot despite them getting blown out at home by the Heat and now going on the road to face the Hawks. I think they'll be motivated to bounce back and continue their 17-7-1 ATS run over the last 25 games. They are 5-2 ATS on 0 days rest over their last 7 and I think this is a good spot as they are well rested after their home stand. The Hawks meanwhile are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 7 on 1 days rest and also just got blown out by the Grizzlies. To me this game will be back and forth and in the end the 76ers are the better team with the better offense and defense statistically.
02-03-12 Milwaukee Bucks v. Detroit Pistons +4.5 Top 80-88 Win 100 4 h 5 m Show
Love the Pistons tonight.
01-31-12 Denver Nuggets -114 v. Memphis Grizzlies Top 97-100 Loss -114 11 h 7 m Show
Nuggets -114 (5* NBA POD)
Not going to mess around with the spread here when we can take the money line at -114.
01-29-12 Los Angeles Clippers +6 v. Denver Nuggets Top 109-105 Win 100 7 h 18 m Show
CLIPPERS +6.5 (4.4* NBA POD) I like the Clippers here tonight despite their struggles on the road, just 1-4. The Nuggets are due for a loss after winning 6 straight. I think their confidence is just a bit too high right now and the Clippers look to have gotten Chris Paul going which will only make them better moving forward. Clippers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings and the Dog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5. Take the Clippers and I wouldn't be shocked to see them win outright.
01-27-12 Oklahoma City Thunder v. Golden State Warriors +4.5 120-109 Loss -110 7 h 28 m Show
2.2* bonus
01-27-12 Phoenix Suns v. Portland Trail Blazers -9.5 Top 71-109 Win 100 7 h 0 m Show
4.4* pod
01-25-12 Minnesota Timberwolves +6 v. Dallas Mavericks Top 105-90 Win 100 4 h 5 m Show
4.4* NBA POD
01-24-12 Memphis Grizzlies +6 v. Portland Trail Blazers Top 84-97 Loss -110 5 h 17 m Show
4.4* nba pod
01-19-12 Dallas Mavericks +3 v. Utah Jazz Top 94-91 Win 100 6 h 44 m Show
Penn State +3.5 (4.4* NCAAB POD)
Penn State are losers of 3 straight and Illinois off a huge win vs. Ohio State their last time out and are now ranked #1 in the Big Ten.
01-18-12 San Antonio Spurs +6 v. Orlando Magic Top 85-83 Win 100 1 h 23 m Show
Spurs +6 -115 (5.5* NBA POD); Nebraska +2 1H (2.2* play)
Love the Spurs tonight despite being on a 10 game losing streak on the road they looked like they had it last night leading the Heat by 17 at one point, but fell apart in the 3rd quarter. I think they catch a break here although they are on back to back none of their starters logged over 30 minutes last night and they face a Magic team that is playing their 3rd game in 3 nights. You wouldn't think they'd look ahead since the Spurs are one of the top franchises, but they do have the Lakers coming in next. This might be a chance for them to get some rest and I don't see them taking this game incredibly seriously since they are on a high from winning of late and their starters are logging well into the 30's including Dwight Howard who had 39 minutes of time last night.

Nebraska has gained some confidence and Indiana is losing it. I see Indiana recovering in the second half but Nebraska will come out as any normal team playing a conference foe that's ranked at home. Nebraska will continue to prove they belong in the Big Ten tonight.
01-16-12 Chicago Bulls v. Memphis Grizzlies +5 Top 86-102 Win 100 1 h 39 m Show
Grizzlies +5 (4.4* NBA POD)
01-11-12 Los Angeles Lakers v. Utah Jazz +2.5 Top 90-87 Loss -115 3 h 12 m Show
Jazz +2.5 (4.4* NBA POD) Love the Jazz tonight as they have some revenge and confidence coming into this game. For one they are shooting over 50% at home and playing good defense holding opponents to 42.3% while the Lakers are giving up over 100 points in road games and are on 0 days rest. I think Kobe is gassed and it'll show they are 1-3 ATS this year on 0 days rest and that continues tonight against a Utah team that's 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games as a .5 to 4.5 point dog.
01-10-12 Oklahoma City Thunder v. Memphis Grizzlies +3.5 Top 100-95 Loss -110 2 h 29 m Show
GRIZZLIES +3.5 4.4* PLAY
01-07-12 Oklahoma City Thunder v. Houston Rockets +4.5 Top 98-95 Win 100 4 h 50 m Show
Rockets +4.5 (4.4* NBA POD) Love the Rockets here tonight as they lost to the Thunder last night and the Thunder even tried resting people in the 4th knowing this is their 2nd game in a row and they have the Spurs sunday who they are clearly looking ahead to as their third game in 3 days. Houston meanwhile has won 11 of 12 vs. the Thunder at home and they are 2-0 at home this year already beating the Spurs and the Hawks. They are just a different team here and I expect them to take advantage in this revenge spot. Rockets are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 following an ATS loss and the Thunder are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 on 0 days rest
01-05-12 Miami Heat v. Atlanta Hawks +2.5 Top 116-109 Loss -110 3 h 48 m Show
4.4* NBA POD
01-04-12 Indiana Pacers +8 v. Miami Heat Top 83-118 Loss -110 1 h 2 m Show
[b]Pacers +8 4.4* NBA POD[/b]
I'll take the more defensive team and the better FT% shooting team getting 8 points. The Dog is 22-7-1 ATS in their last 30 games in this match up and the Pacers played the Heat very well late last year.
12-28-11 Oklahoma City Thunder v. Memphis Grizzlies +1.5 Top 98-95 Loss -110 2 h 45 m Show
Grizzlies +1 (4.4* POD) This is the Thunder's 3rd game in 4 days and they go on the road to face the Grizzlies team that's extremely deep and upset the Spurs in the playoffs last year in the first round. I'm not surprised the Spurs won in their opener, but now the Grizzlies return home to get some revenge of their own against the Thunder. The only thing that stopped the Grizzlies in their first game was turnovers and the Thunder are -1.5 in turnovers per game so I don't see it being a huge issue. Grizzlies are 24-9 ATS in their last 33 home games.
12-25-11 Orlando Magic +8.5 v. Oklahoma City Thunder Top 89-97 Win 100 8 h 25 m Show
Magic +8.5 4.4* NBA POD
12-25-11 Miami Heat -4.5 v. Dallas Mavericks 105-94 Win 100 3 h 50 m Show
Heat -4.5 2.2* play
06-12-11 Dallas Mavericks v. Miami Heat UNDER 187 105-95 Loss -105 8 h 46 m Show
2.2* play
06-12-11 Dallas Mavericks +5 v. Miami Heat Top 105-95 Win 100 8 h 46 m Show
4.4* nba pod
06-09-11 Miami Heat v. Dallas Mavericks UNDER 184.5 103-112 Loss -110 9 h 58 m Show
Under 185 -120 buy the 1/2 point 3* play
06-09-11 Miami Heat +1.5 v. Dallas Mavericks Top 103-112 Loss -113 9 h 57 m Show
Heat +1.5 4.4* NBA POD; Under 185 -120 3* play, Heat -1.5 +160 2* play Heat have been more dominant in this series than most remember. I think they really come out with some authority tonight. Although Lebron has not really shown up in this series it will be interesting to see what he does here tonight. Still this is a very inconsistent offensive team in Miami which is why I like the under yet again. Miami's defense though is one of the best so expect a tight game down the stretch yet again with the Heat pulling out the victory.
06-07-11 Miami Heat +3 v. Dallas Mavericks 83-86 Push 0 3 h 19 m Show
3.3* BONUS
06-07-11 Miami Heat v. Dallas Mavericks UNDER 187 Top 83-86 Win 100 3 h 19 m Show
4.4* nba pod
06-05-11 Miami Heat v. Dallas Mavericks OVER 188.5 88-86 Loss -105 6 h 30 m Show
Heat +3 -120 5* NBA POD; Over 188.5 2.5* play Heat really have dominated this series and I just think the Mavericks are going to continue having difficulties stopping the Heat. I don't see the Heat letting their collapse in game 2 roll into this game. That game gave Dallas a couple of points. If Dallas lost I think we'd have more of a pick em here. I also see the over again with both teams putting up points.
06-05-11 Miami Heat +2.5 v. Dallas Mavericks Top 88-86 Win 100 7 h 30 m Show
Heat +3 -120 5* NBA POD; Over 188.5 2.5* play Heat really have dominated this series and I just think the Mavericks are going to continue having difficulties stopping the Heat. I don't see the Heat letting their collapse in game 2 roll into this game. That game gave Dallas a couple of points. If Dallas lost I think we'd have more of a pick em here. I also see the over again with both teams putting up points.
06-02-11 Dallas Mavericks +183 v. Miami Heat 95-93 Win 183 4 h 33 m Show
06-02-11 Dallas Mavericks v. Miami Heat OVER 187 Top 95-93 Win 100 4 h 31 m Show
Rangers +115 (4* MLB POD); Dal/Mia Over 186 (4.4*play) 1.5* Mavericks +175 Rangers are 9-2 in their last 11 meetings with the INdians. I fear the Indians will start to spiral downward they have remained .500 since losing Hafner, but the Rangers got their lefty bat back in Hamilton and they are just a different monster. Over their last 10 games they are putting up more than 6 runs per 9 innings vs. rhp and are hitting .287. They beat up Carrasco last time who has an ERA over 7 at home this year. Rangers take this game and the value is on the dog for sure. See both Dallas and Miami picking it up tonight offensively, both under 40% last game. Miami may have just gotten really cocky and feel they have this series won, but I believe they will have a shot to win in the end. The fact that the Mavericks held the Heat under 40% shooting has to prove something to you about their defense on the road giving thema solid shot at winning.
05-31-11 Dallas Mavericks v. Miami Heat -4.5 84-92 Win 100 3 h 12 m Show
2.2* play heat
05-31-11 Dallas Mavericks v. Miami Heat UNDER 188.5 Top 84-92 Win 100 3 h 13 m Show
4.4* nba pod
05-26-11 Miami Heat v. Chicago Bulls -3 Top 83-80 Loss -108 8 h 26 m Show
Bulls -3 (4.4* NBA POD) The Heat really are too cocky at this point and I'd love to see the Bulls who dominated them in game #1 at home return to make this a game 7 series. I think the day off for the Bulls players who played many minutes on Tuesday was critical but now they are at home with extra energy and ready to really shut down the Heat. Expect to see Lebron on Rose again, but expect Rose to be able to beat him in transition and be more of a passer in the half court taking advantage of match ups.
05-25-11 Oklahoma City Thunder +7 v. Dallas Mavericks Top 96-100 Win 100 4 h 39 m Show
4.4* TOP PLAY
05-22-11 Chicago Bulls +180 v. Miami Heat Top 85-96 Loss -100 8 h 35 m Show
4.4* on Bulls +5; 2* on Bulls +180
05-21-11 Dallas Mavericks +2.5 v. Oklahoma City Thunder 93-87 Win 100 8 h 28 m Show
2.2* bonus
05-21-11 Dallas Mavericks v. Oklahoma City Thunder UNDER 201 Top 93-87 Win 100 8 h 27 m Show
4.4* NBA POD
05-19-11 Atlanta Hawks +5.5 v. Dallas Mavericks Top 106-100 Win 100 4 h 18 m Show
4,4* NBA POD
05-18-11 Miami Heat +2.5 v. Chicago Bulls Top 85-75 Win 100 3 h 29 m Show
Heat +3 -120 3* play
05-18-11 Miami Heat v. Chicago Bulls UNDER 182 Top 85-75 Win 100 3 h 28 m Show
4.4* nba pod
05-17-11 Oklahoma City Thunder v. Dallas Mavericks -6 Top 112-121 Win 100 9 h 2 m Show
4* nba pod
05-15-11 Miami Heat v. Chicago Bulls -120 Top 82-103 Win 100 7 h 1 m Show
4* NBA POD
05-15-11 Memphis Grizzlies +6.5 v. Oklahoma City Thunder 90-105 Loss -106 3 h 34 m Show
2.5* play
05-13-11 Oklahoma City Thunder v. Memphis Grizzlies -117 Top 83-95 Win 100 5 h 33 m Show
4.5* nba pod
05-11-11 Boston Celtics v. Miami Heat UNDER 181 87-97 Loss -105 6 h 2 m Show
4* NBA POD
05-09-11 Miami Heat -1 v. Boston Celtics Top 98-90 Win 100 7 h 58 m Show
4.4* nba pod
05-08-11 Los Angeles Lakers +2 v. Dallas Mavericks Top 86-122 Loss -108 4 h 56 m Show
Lakers +2 (4.5* NBA POD) Love the Lakers in this spot. I think Kobe has one more game where he can motivate his teammates to rally and get a win. In all honestly the difference in this series has been the team that can close. The Lakers have even controlled 2 of 3 of these games, but for some reason has not been able to close which is unlike them. I expect them to get up in this game and have the intensity to hold on late and send it back to LA.
05-06-11 Los Angeles Lakers +2.5 v. Dallas Mavericks 92-98 Loss -110 4 h 23 m Show
3.3* play
05-06-11 Chicago Bulls -2.5 v. Atlanta Hawks 99-82 Win 100 2 h 56 m Show
BULLS 4.5* NBA POD
05-04-11 Atlanta Hawks v. Chicago Bulls -8.5 Top 73-86 Win 100 7 h 6 m Show
4.4* NBA POD
05-03-11 Boston Celtics v. Miami Heat UNDER 182.5 Top 91-102 Loss -110 7 h 22 m Show
4.4* NBA POD
05-02-11 Atlanta Hawks v. Chicago Bulls -9 103-95 Loss -105 3 h 0 m Show
4* NBA POD
04-29-11 San Antonio Spurs v. Memphis Grizzlies -3 91-99 Win 100 4 h 49 m Show
4.5* pod
04-28-11 Dallas Mavericks v. Portland Trail Blazers -4 103-96 Loss -103 10 h 58 m Show
Blazers -3.5 -120 (3* play)
04-28-11 Orlando Magic -119 v. Atlanta Hawks Top 81-84 Loss -119 7 h 58 m Show
Magic -120 (4* NBA POD);
04-27-11 Memphis Grizzlies +7 v. San Antonio Spurs 103-110 Push 0 3 h 23 m Show
4.4* NBA POD
04-26-11 Indiana Pacers +8.5 v. Chicago Bulls Top 89-116 Loss -105 3 h 36 m Show
4.4* NBA POD
04-26-11 Atlanta Hawks +300 v. Orlando Magic 76-101 Loss -100 2 h 6 m Show
1.5* PLAY
04-25-11 Oklahoma City Thunder v. Denver Nuggets -3 101-104 Push 0 10 h 16 m Show
-2.5 3.3* PLAY
04-25-11 San Antonio Spurs -1.5 v. Memphis Grizzlies Top 86-104 Loss -102 8 h 48 m Show
4.4* POD
04-24-11 Orlando Magic v. Atlanta Hawks UNDER 179 85-88 Win 100 7 h 23 m Show
3.3* PLAY
04-24-11 Orlando Magic v. Atlanta Hawks +2 85-88 Win 100 7 h 22 m Show
2.2* PLAY
04-24-11 Miami Heat v. Philadelphia 76ers +6.5 Top 82-86 Win 100 1 h 18 m Show
4.4* POD
04-23-11 Oklahoma City Thunder v. Denver Nuggets -4.5 Top 97-94 Loss -110 9 h 48 m Show
4.4* POD
04-23-11 San Antonio Spurs v. Memphis Grizzlies -123 88-91 Win 100 6 h 18 m Show
4* play
04-23-11 Chicago Bulls v. Indiana Pacers +185 84-89 Win 185 1 h 19 m Show
2* play
04-22-11 Orlando Magic v. Atlanta Hawks +2 84-88 Win 100 7 h 50 m Show
3.3* bonus
04-22-11 Orlando Magic v. Atlanta Hawks UNDER 180.5 Top 84-88 Win 100 7 h 50 m Show
4.4* pod
04-21-11 Dallas Mavericks +5.5 v. Portland Trail Blazers 92-97 Win 100 10 h 9 m Show
3.5* PLAY
04-21-11 Chicago Bulls -4 v. Indiana Pacers Top 88-84 Push 0 7 h 40 m Show
4.4* NBA POD
04-20-11 New Orleans Hornets v. Los Angeles Lakers UNDER 188 Top 78-87 Win 100 7 h 56 m Show
4.4* NBA pod
04-20-11 Denver Nuggets +5 v. Atlanta Hawks 89-106 Loss -110 4 h 19 m Show
3.3* play
04-19-11 Atlanta Hawks v. Orlando Magic UNDER 183.5 Top 82-88 Win 100 2 h 58 m Show
4.4* NBA POD
04-19-11 New York Knicks +6.5 v. Boston Celtics 93-96 Win 100 2 h 36 m Show
kNICKS 3* PLAY
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