Michigan St +6 5.5* NCAAB POD / 2* bonus on ML +220

I really just don't see this line getting any higher so I'm going to snatch it at +6.  I really think Michigan State can win this game as they are peaking at the right time.  Duke is extremely young and I really worry about the week off and the increase in press.  Now Coach K is an exceptional coach for those distractions, but in the end Michigan State is getting a lot of disrespect.  The alleged height advantage they have is not that significant when you take into consideration that the Spartans rebound extremely well and they also alter opponents shots ranking in the top 50 in shot block%.  Duke relies heavily on Jahlil Okafor and I could see him getting in foul trouble early here or at least that will be part of the strategy.  Look these teams met very early in the year and Duke won by 10 points.  Michigan State played their worst defensive game and still lost by 10 points.  They are a much better team  and their NCAA success is very impressive beating Oklahoma, Louisville, and of course Virginia to get here.

Louisville +2.5 4.4* POD;

Louisville U59 1H 2.2*;

Louisville +6.5/ Gonzaga +6.5 3.3* teaser;

Gonzaga +1.5 1H 2.2*

nc st +2.5 4.4* NCAAB POD - 1h UNDER 2.2* 

[b]Notre Dame +2 4.4* NCAAB POD[/b]

Notre Dame has not even come close to playing their best game meanwhile Wichita State just got done beating their in state rival Kansas.  They barely ever play, but it was a huge game and win for Wichita and now they have to face a Notre Dame team that has not played their best game and are certainly do.  I think Notre Dame comes out and wins this game getting to the elite 8 and I think they are under dogs, because a lot of people knew people would be jumping on them after beating Kansas.  I'm not buying into it and I think Notre Dame plays their best game yet.

[b]UNC +10.5 / UCLA +12.5 3.3* PLAY[/b]

Two of the highest seeds left in the tournament playing some very good teams, but both of these programs have plenty of talent to pull off an upset.  I can't see either of them losing by double digits so I'll tease them since we have been losing a lot by 1-2 points.  

Northern Iowa -2 4.4* NCAAB POD 

BONUS PLAYS INCLUDE

SD ST +5.5 1ST HALF 2.2* 

IOWA +3 1ST HALF 2.2* 

NC State +9.5 4.4* NCAAB POD

NC State comes off a very big win as they came behind with a ton of confidence down 16 to defeat LSU.  Nova looked great the entire day and cruised to an easy win, but this is a team that is partial to the upset.  NC State played a very difficult schedule this year out of conference and in conference where they did defeat UNC, Duke, and North Carolina.  I think this line is a bit inflated due to Villanova's seed and blowout in the first round, and NC State has proven they can hang with a team of Villanova's caliber. 

Maryland -4.5 4.4* POD

This is a dangerous team in the tournament and I just don't think Valpo stacks up here at all.  Valpo did not have a good strength of schedule in conference or out of conference and the two teams they did play who are usually pretty decent (New Mexico, Missouri) were not in the top 200, but they still lost by double digits.  Maryland has 9 wins against tournament teams including MIchigan State twice, Iowa State and Wisconsin for an impressive resume.  They have a SR guard in Dez Wells who will take over a game and can score from all over including the FT line.  They also have to other guys that will get to the FT line in Trimble and Layman and they have some big enough guys to contend with Valpo's trio.  More athleticism and great guard play here will be the difference. 

Texas -1 5.5* NCAAB POD

Texas is not supposed to be in right?  Their coach is going to be fired, but I'm not buying it this is a very good team #1 2 point defense in the country and really played well down the stretch against some tough competition.  This 2 point defense allows 37.8% and Butler will rely heavily shooting 71% of their shots from 2 point range and are ranked 203rd in 2 point % so they are going to have a real tough time scoring points in this one.  Meanwhile their defense is ranked 153rd in 2 point defense and Texas 2 point offense is better at 130th.  9 of 10 of Butler's losses were against man defense which is what Texas will play.  Texas also 4th in rebounding % and have a huge size difference along with the fact that they are a much deeper team relying on their bench for 40% of the minutes.  Isiah Taylor is the better guard in this match up and the combo of Myles Turner, Holmes and Rolley will be too much for the perennial Cinderella team in Butler. 

Duquesne +7.5 4.4* NCAAB POD

Millions watched as Davidson defeated VCU on Thursday night in what was considered a "bubble game"  With just 1 day rest they have to travel to finish up against Duquesne on the road after a 82-55 win.  This is a huge letdown spot for the visitors with just 1 day of rest.  Davidson dominated the Dukes back on February 7th winning 95-69, and I look at a similar situation with arguably the best team in the A10 in Dayton who beat the Dukes 81-55 at home and went on the road to lose 83-73 on February 21st.  The Dukes have been extremely competitive and unfortunate at home.  They lost to St. Bonaventure in OT, to VCU by just 6, Rhode Island by 1, but have some excellent wins over Dayton and George Mason, and George Washington at home.  I think they'd like to close out the season with one more great performance. 

Syracuse +6 4.4* NCAAB POD

Utah -1.5 3.3* POD
I expect Utah to get revenge here tonight on Arizona. Both teams are pretty evenly matched and Arizona probably does have more talent, but Utah is one of the most efficient teams in the country on defense and offense. Arizona has already lost 3 times on the road and 2 of those losses that team was top 50 in 2 point defense. Utah is ranked #4 in 2 point defense where Arizona will attempt nearly 80% of their shots. I always like looking at that factor because it allows you to really break down a game from the perspective of where the game will be played the majority of time. Arizona does not really have any road wins to really hang their hat on and Utah has one of the best home court advantages especially with their unique elevation factor. The same advantage has translated into the NBA for the Jazz and for the Utah football programs. Utah is 38-12-1 ATS in their last 51 home games and I expect them to take this game tonight. 

 Portland +3 4.4* POD

Very similar situation as BYU is looking ahead to their showdown against Gonzaga where Portland wants revenge on BYU for their loss earlier this season.  They definately have the offense for it and I think they will get a win at home where BYU has won 4 in a row SU and ATS are being a bit over valued here.  Portland faced BYU on the road and played their worst defense of the season along with being -10 FTA.  They are a different team at home and it will show tonight. 

Eastern Mich pk 5.5* NCAAB POD

I love Eastern Michigan in this spot right now they have a very good team that is very good on its home court (14-2 on the season).  They have been able to get it done with excellent defense at home and I think it continues tonight.  In the first match up between these teams Eastern Mich just played terribly with their 25th worse offensive night and 17th worse defensive night meanwhile Central enjoyed their 3rd best defensive game.  I don't see that happening on the road where they have struggled and their inexperience has shown as they rank 222nd in experience to Eastern Michigan's 86th ranked experience.  This defense is ranked top 75 in turnover %, effective FG%, 2 point and 3 point defense, block % and steal % and rank 58th in adjusted defense overall having faced a 102nd adjusted offensive schedule.  Now Central Mich comes into the game ranking 32nd in adjusted offense but really can't take them seriously considering their opponents rank 292nd in adjusted defense.  They are 1-3 vs. the MAC's top 4 defensive teams and their only win was at home vs. Eastern Michigan who wants revenge here tonight.  I typically think the revenge factor is a bit over rated, but this game has a lot that I like about it from the home defensive team with more experience and revenge to the fact that Central Michigan played one of their better games in the first match up while Eastern Mich played one of their worst.  I bet that switches around here tonight.

[b]Georgia Tech +6.5 3.3* play [/b]

[b]Northern Arizona -1 4.4* NCAAB POD[/b]

I like Northern Arizona in this spot in conference play this is a veteran led team ranking 53rd in the country in experience and Eastern Washington comes in with their 20-6 record riding high, but Eastern Washington is 10th in strength of schedule in Big Sky conference play they are the #1 offensive efficiency however they just shoot too many 3's and they are facing the #2 conference defensive efficiency team.  Northern Arizona has a huge advantage here at home they are the better defensive team by far and rebounding even gets better with a 52.7% rebound rate compared to Eastern Washington's 46.1% on the road.  Eastern Washington has not shot the ball as well on the road and they have been very lucky this year in games that are supposed to be close and I'm betting against their luck here today.

BOSTON COLLEGE +6 4.4* NCAAB POD

Tennessee +13.5 3.3* NCAAB POD

[b]Quinnipiac +3 4.4* NCAAB POD[/b]

I'll take Quinnipiac in this spot who already lost to Iona on the road this year as Iona shot 12-23 from 3.  That's Iona's bread and butter and they are not shy about hoisting up the 3, but Quinnipiac defends well at home 31.6% beyond 3 and they are #1 in the nation overall in rebounding % while Iona is #228.  Quinnipiac is also #1 in 2 point defense and block % in conference play so they should enjoy a good advantage inside the arch.  As long as they can put together an effective game plan to defend the perimeter I see them winning this game or covering the 3 point spread on Sunday. 

Michigan State -2 4.4* NCAAB POD

I'll take the Spartans here today. For one i feel these two teams are pretty even and their strengths and weaknesses are pretty damn similar.  Ohio State has a freshman as their best player while Michigan State is built more on a team aspect with talent spread around.  They are under sized compared to Ohio State yet they are a far superior rebounding team which to me just is odd.  Michigan State lost their last home game against Illinois and I don't see them losing this one.  They have been pretty unlucky all year, but I believer their advantage in experience will be the difference.  In addition Ohio State has covered 4 of their last 5 games ATS and the margin of victories ATS have been very high.  We get an inflated line here because of it.

Ohio State also returns Marc Loving today from suspension which I think will do more harm than good.  He was averaging roughly 25 min before the suspension and you really can't expect to just plug him back in with results or without impacting the chemistry a bit.  Michigan State's  2point and 3 point offensive and defensive ranks are the best  averaging a national rank of 33.75.  Ohio State is just 3-4 on the road and have lost to Purdue, Iowa, Indiana, and Louisville and all 4 of those teams struggle more in at least two categories.  Michigan State is more complete and consistent and I think their motivation to win this game is right in line with our prediction.  

Texas Tech +10.5 3.3* NCAAB POD

Northern Illinois +3 4.4* NCAAB POD[/b]

Northern Illinois is 3-6 in conference play Bowling Green 6-3 and everyone is jumping on BG to get their 2nd win vs. Northern Illinois after they beat them by 10 earlier in the year, but the only difference in that game was Bowling Green's ability to hit 3's as they went 7-18 while Northern Illinois shot 2-12.  Neither team has an elite offense in fact in conference play Bowling Green is ranked 9th in offensive efficiency and Northern Illinois is ranked 11th.  The difference being BG can not manufacturer offense in creative ways while Northern Illinois is 1st in offensive rebounding % and FT rate.  Northern Illinois has an even greater advantage at home where they are +12 FTA, +4 rebounding and +3 turnover margin on the season on average at home. I think they will win all 3 categories and ad din the fact that Bowling Green wins with defense, but is 7th in 2 point defense overall is a scary stat with Northern Illinois shooting all of their shots from 2 70% roughly.  Bowling Green defends it well at home 39.6% but on the road that number climbs to 53.5%.  

[b]USC +11 3.3* NCAAB POD[/b]

This is a rematch of a game about a month ago and USC was extremely young then and they still are, but 30 days a team definitely improves and on that day they clearly could not have played any worse shooting 38.5% getting out rebounded by 6 and -15 FTA  while allowing Utah to shoot 58% from 3.  Utah is a different team at home and while I think they will win this game it will take a lot more effort to do so.  Utah has the 10th toughest schedule in PAC 12 play so they have been lucky with how they have gotten here.  I think the fact that they shot 42% of their shots from outside and USC does defend well at home 30.8% and the fact that they have a game to look at to make adjustments gives us plenty of value here on USC. 

Depaul +12 4.4* NCAAB POD

Villanova is the better team, but with this game being on the road it's a little more evena nd I don't see 12 points being enough to separate these two teams.  First of all the strength of schedules have been very similar only Depaul has had the #1 toughest schedule in Big East play while Nova has had the 9th toughest.  Nova's main strategy is to get open looks from 3 while they have taken 40% of their shots and it did them well shooting 13-29 from 3 at home vs. Depaul which I don't see happening again as Depaul is ranked 28th overall in 3 point defense.  Both of these teams are rather similar ranking in top 100 shooting the 3 and top 30 in defending it and I think Depaul will have greater success here today shooting and defending.  When you look at home away splits Depaul is shooting it 39.2 % from beyond the arch and defending at 26.5 while Nova is a bit worse 34.3 vs. 29.4.

Depaul has been a good team at home already beating St. Johns, Xavier, Marquette, a good Stanford team and they lost by 6 to Georgetown who Nova lost to by 20.  I wouldn't be shocked to see Depaul win this game, but my money is on them to keep this game within single digits. 

Creighton +1 -105 3.5* NCAAB POD

I like Creighton int his spot to finally get their first Big East win of the year.  St. Johns comes into an interesting spot after playing Duke as Coach K got his 1000th victory.  I'm sure they put a lot of effort to make sure that didn't happen on their floor, but came up short.  It's not like Creighton has been a bad team they have been largely unlucky and have faced a very difficult schedule.  Kenpom has them as the #1 toughest schedule in conference play while St. Johns is 7th so I'm not surprised they have lost every game.  They still have a top 100 offense adjusted at the end of the day and they are playing at home.  Their adjusted SOS for defenses faced is 24th while St John's is ranked 11th in defensive efficiency in conference play.  St Jonh's is 4-6 vs. Top 100 offenses and 3 of those 4 wins came at home. 

Florida -1 5.5* NCAAB POD

Florida is a desperate team right now meanwhile Auburn just came off a home win over their biggest rival in Auburn in dramatic fashion.  Florida is a far better team that has gotten really unlucky this year but they are top 60 in 2 point offense and defense as well as top 100 in offense and defensive rebounding.  Alabama not a good rebounding team at all ranks 187th in rebound rate on the season while Florida is 78th.  I see a bit of a hang over for Alabama here with Kentucky up next it's a nice sandwich game and I love how desperate this Florida team should be here tonight.  Alabama also is 0-3 vs. top 50 2 point defensive teams which Florida fits.  Meanwhile Florida is 6-1 vs. teams that do not rank in the top 100 in adjusted defense which Alabama fits.  Florida has faced a more challenging schedule ranked 16th toughest and it will benefit them down the stretch. 

NC State +1.5 4.4* NCAAB POD

Looking over these two teams there is not much that separates them.  Notre Dame's offensive stats are very impressive, but you have to take a look at who they have played.  So far they rank 277th in strength of schedule meanwhile NC State comes into this game ranking #34th in strength of schedule.  NC State is a well balanced team top 100 in offensive and defensive efficiency.  They are also the better rebounding team especially at home.  The great thing about NC State is that they are a focused team going 7-0 following a loss.  They lost a game against Virginia on the road and bounced back to beat Duke on their home court recently.  I think Notre Dame could also be peaking to their game on Wednesday with Duke.

LA Monroe +1 4.4* NCAAB POD

I will go with the home dog in this spot.. First of all Monroe has faced a much more difficult schedule than Georgia Southern along the way at #197 compared to #309 for Georgia Southern.  Both teams have top 100 adjusted defenses with offenses that struggle.  I took a look at what each team did against top 100 defenses and LA Monroe was more impressive at 2-2 facing Florida on the road they took them to OT, and they lost by only 8 at New Mexico.  Actually all 4 of their games vs. top 100 defenses came on the road so it's no shock to me why their offense has struggled this year.  Meanwhile Georgia Southern went 3-1, but they played TExas State twice who is ranked 275th in 2 point defense where as Monroe carries a top 50 2 point and 3 point % defense.  Georgia also had the advantage of playing 2 of those games at home, but now they are on the road where Monroe should also enjoy the rebounding edge.  Also worth noting is the fact that Georgia Southern is ranked 92nd in 2 point defense but on the road they are allowing 46.5% compared to Monroe who is allowing 41.4% at home.  Remember Monroe has had a more challenging schedule to get there.

[b]Ole Miss +4.5 4.4* NCAAB POD[/b]

Both teams here come off equal impressive victories, but Georgia just beat their #1 rival in Florida and they did so as an under dog so I'm expecting a bit of a hang over here as Ole Miss comes to town getting 4 points which I just feel is too much.  Ole Miss has some great wins and has faced the SEC's toughest schedule and have looked better doing so than Georgia.  The biggest difference is defense.  Both teams are going to attempt the majority of their shots inside the arch (over 70%) and Georgia is ranked 14th (dead last) in the conference defending the 2 point game and they rank 78th int he nation.  Meanwhile Ole Miss is 11th in the nation defending the 2.  They had success recently against Kentucky nearly winning in OT on the road so they should not be freaked out by going on the road in conference play one bit.  Ole Miss also handles the ball better and is nearly even with Georgia in rebounding.  I expect a tight game throughout with Ole Miss pulling out to an early lead.  

Georgetown +4 4.4* NCAAB POD

I think the Hoyas have the ingredients to pull off the upset as they are very good in 2 point defense and 2 point offense.  They are the more physical team and better rebounding team and playing at home.  Also worth noting is the fact that Georgetown has played the 25th toughest schedule while Nova is at 63rd.  Both teams are top 60 in adjusted offense and defense, but really sticks out in this one is Georgetown's 12th ranked block % and 47th ranked 2 point % defense.  Their ability to defend in the paint is critical here and the fact that the majority of their shots will come from here it's key that Villanova, a team getting a ton of hype right now has the 110th ranked 2 point defense.  Georgetown will take 71%+ of their shots from 2 and  Nova allows 45.6% and even worst at 49.7% on the road.  12 of their opponents have not even been top 150 in 2 point offense so it's not like they've faced quality teams along the way.  The teams that have been good at scoring inside the arch have regularly put up 70+ points but don't have the defense and rebounding ability that Georgetown has. Georgetown is 9-0 when they score 71+ points this season which I think they get to tonight. 

[b]Oregon +4 4.4* NCAAB POD[/b]

This is offense vs. defense with Oregon being in the top 100 in offense and in the top 10 in tempo while Washington is top 50 in defense.  Washington has really had an easy schedule to start the year 240th ranked SOS while Oregon sits in at 141.  The stats are similar on both sides so I'm not surprised that the line is 4 points, but I believe we are getting just a a couple of extra points and the fact that Oregon comes off a lost while Washington comes off a win gives me enough incentive to pull the trigger. 

Oregon can play defense as well ranked 13th in 2 point defense compared to Washington at 5th, but the difference in this game is rebounding and getting to the FT line.  Oregon is better ranking 12th in FT % while Washington is at 273 and they are a slightly better rebounding team as well.  I think their pace is also going to get to Washington who is used to a slower type of game which allows them to set up their defense and be in good position.  A team that pushes their possessions changes that completely and it's not surprising to see that Washington is 1-2 against top pace teams with their win coming by just 2 points over Oklahoma.

Oregon State +3 4.4* NCAAB PO

I'm going with Oregon State here as the defensive team going against an offensive team.  Oregon State and Washington State are being said to be evenly matched based on this spread.  Washington State was just an 11.5 point dog at Washington meanwhile Oregon State was a 7 point dog vs. Washington so I really see that this spread should be -1 or a pk for this game, but because Washington State has just won three straight games SU and ATS as an under dog in conference play we have to respect them, but I just feel the more balanced team is Oregon State.  They also come off a loss where they have been especially dangerous going 21-8-2 ATS in their last 31.  They have a top 50 defense and WAshington State has gone just 3-3 vs. top 100 defenses.  Washington State relies on the 3 ball way too much and are shooting it 43% of the time at home, but Oregon State is 12th in the nation at defending the 3.

On the flip side we have Washington State here who is a top 100 offense ranked 74th in adjusted offense.  Oregon State has gone 4-2 vs. top 100 offenses and when they face a defense that's outside the top 200 they are 6-0.  Defense really carries a team on the road and I love the guard play of Oregon State led by Gary Payton (yes the son of Gary Payton).  He's a reason why they are so good defending the 3 and rank top 20 in turnover % defense.  This team is also ranked 75th in rebounding % compared with Wash State who is 148th.  They just are flat out the better team and not being treated as such. 

Idaho +5.5 4.4* NCAAB POD

I like the Vandals here in this spot.  They are the better team overall and though they are on the road we only account 3-4 points so I think they should be more like a 3 point under dog yet we are getting over 5 points at some books.  Both of these clubs have top 100 offenses and are #1 and #2 in offense in their conference but are below average on defense ranking 10th and 11th in conference play.  Idaho overall has faced a bit stronger schedule as far as the offenses they have gone up against and they have held up better vs. top 100 offenses going 1-2 but holding those opponents to 89, 86, and 71 meanwhile Sacramento State vs. top 100 offenses (like they'll face today) has gone 0-3 and allowed 84, 80 and 104 losing by 11, 5, and 46.  Their last game vs. Northern Colorado looks awfully similar to this game. Northern Colorado has a top 100 offense (Idaho is a bit better) and a bottom of the league defense (Idaho is a bit better).  Overall I'd say Idaho is a better team than Northern Colorado who is far worse in rebound rate and just a bit worse in 2 point defense.  Actually Idaho is better in both those categories than Sac State.  The most glaring is the advantage they'll have on the boards here tonight ranking in the top 100 in rebound rate while Sacramento State comes in at 237th.  I expect Idaho to win this game outright but 5.5 points is just too good to be true. 

[b]Vanderbilt -2 3.3* NCAAB POD[/b]

I will go with the home team here tonight as I think Vanderbilt is in better shape to take this game.  Georgia is off 2 losses including a dramatic over time loss to LSU and they have a look ahead spot with Florida up next a game that is much sexier than playing Vanderbilt.  Vanderbilt has a very solid team and are also coming off a loss without any look ahead games and the Commodores are 36-16-1 ATS in their last 53 games following a ATS loss.

Georgia is going to take 75% of their shots from 2 point range and Vanderbilt is a very good rebounding team especially at home where they get 55% of the rebounds.  Their defense improves by 5% from 2 point range when they are at home so that's another edge they will have in this game.  Georgia's defense just has not transitioned on the road and they are one of the worst  in the SEC.  They have played 4 top 50 adjusted offenses this year (Vanderbilt is 30th), and have gone 1-3 and I think tonight will make them 1-4. 

Michigan State +3 -102 3.5* NCAAB POD

I will take the Spartans here in conference play as a dog.  First of all their adjusted offense and defensive numbers are quite impressive being 43rd on the offensive end and 9th on the defensive end.  Their offense is very balanced with 4 guys averaging double digits which normally translates well on the road  and they have a guy in Denzel Valentine that can score from anywhere on the court. The Spartans have also played 4 top 20 teams at the time they have played them and rank 90th in strength of schedule.  There loss to Texas Southern at home and then losing to Maryland at home as well is what gives us some nice value on the road here.  The defense is playing much better and they are top 25 in effective FG% on the defensive and offensive end.

Iowa on the other hand are 260th in strength of schedule and they are 261st in effective FG%.  They rebound well and play solid defense, but I think both teams here play solid defense and Michigan State really has the advantage in coaching and in their offense.  This will be a tough task for the Spartans, but I think they are up for it.

Texas A&M +5 3.3* NCAAB POD / Under 126.5 2.2* bonus[/b]

the public has pushed this number quite a bit but I'll take A&M who I think is the better team at least in adjusted rankings.  Home court is not worth this many points and there are several other factors that make Alabama a risky play such as the number of times they take three point shots.  Roughly 40% of their shots are from three and that really falls into the Aggies strength here ranking 41st in three point defense and they have actually allowed 25.6% on the road.  Overall they rank #54 in adjusted defense compared to Alabama who is ranked 74th.  So we also get the better defense on the road while we also get the better rebounding team as A&M ranks 62nd compared to Alabama at 141st.  I also think Alabama's offense has been as good as it has been because of the teams they have faced as the opponent defense strength of schedule comes in at 327.  This is clearly a step up and A&M should keep this game in the 50's.  A&M faced two similar teams with this type of defense and were held to 52 and 56 points against Wichitah State and UCLA neither of which are ranked in the top 100 in 3 point defense or even 2 point defense for that matter.  For that reason I will also go with the under as the Aggies are Under in 43 of their last 62 road games and the Crimson Tide are also under in their last 4 vs. the SEC and 31 of their last 43 following a SU win.