Under 207 5.5* NBA POD

Cavs +1.5 4.4* NBA POD

Bucks +3.5 4.4* NBA POD

I had the Bucks the other night and we lost by 1 point ATS.  I pointed out how in game 1 they could not have played worse and they picked up their defense big time in game 2 holding the Bulls to just 11 points to start the first quarter.  In the end their offense struggled because of it and they shot 35.6% from the field were at a 10 FTA disadvantage and 16 rebound disadvantage.  They also gave up 12 three's in the game to the Bulls.  I just don't see them playing that poorly for all 4 quarters again and in fact I think they'll win this game.   

Bucks +8 4.4* NBA POD

In my opinion the Bucks could have not played a worse game to start the series and that could have happened for a variety of reasons.  They still only lost by 12 points despite shooting 39% from the field, 25% from beyond the arch and 65% from the foul line.  I believe the Bucks bench really takes over this game tonight and I fully expect them to be in down to the wire.  The Bulls looked great, but I don't anticipate Derek Rose being that good in the second game in a row.  The Bulls scored 60 points in the first half and that's just not typical as I expect the Bucks to rebound here in a big way led by some of their guys off the bench.

Pelicans +12.5 4.4* NBA POD

The early money has pushed this spread 2.5 points from where it opened and I just don't see the oddsmakers being off by that much when predicting the market on this game.  I think the Pelicans have been in playoff mode for the last few weeks while the Warriors had their seed clinched weeks ago.  I also think it's difficult for the Warriors to cover this number without shooting extremely well from beyond the arch and the Pelicans were ranked 2nd in the league in 3 point defense.  They also have arguably the best player in basketball and certainly the best big man in Anthony Davis.  Davis is a match up nightmare for the Warriors as he proved by averaging just under 30 points 13 rebounds and 4 blocks vs. the Warriors in the regular season. I think the health and return of Jrue Holliday will make the difference as New Orleans keeps this game close throughout. 

Pacers/Pistons U193 3.3* play

I don't see the Pistons giving much effort in this one and they are one of the worst offensive teams in the league on any given night.  The Pacers are still trying to get into the playoffs so I expect their defense to be playing at its highest level which it has of late.  Pacers trail the 8th and final spot by one game and this is a high total for them.  I also like the fact that the Pistons have gone over in their last 2 so their offense is due to be shut down by one of the leagues best defenses. 

[b]Bulls/Heat Under 191.5 3.3* play[/b]

A lot on the line here for both teams and most of the meetings previously went under the number they are setting here tonight.  With playoff implications like the Bulls playing for home court I believe we will see a defensive intensity here.  I'll take the under. 

[b]Charlotte/Miami U189.5 3.3* play[/b]

Both teams are trailing the Celtics by 1 and 1.5 games for the final spot in the east and I believe the defensive intensity is going to be high for this meeting.  The recent history between the Heat and Charlotte have been defensive oriented as well with an average of 175.3 pts per game this season so I think we get great value at 189.5 especially with playoffs on the mind of both teams. 

Wisconsin -115 4.5* NCAAB POD 

The Badgers are the experienced team here.  Duke has enough to get by here, but I worry they won't be able to match the complete effort of Wisconsin.  Wisconsin has far too many weapons here and you remember they lost in December by 10 points to Duke.  Ironically they played their worst defensive performance against Duke in that game as the Blue Devils shot 71% in the second half alone and 65% overall.  It would be near impossible for Duke to have the same type of effort here and I also think they greatly benefited by having extra time to prepare for that game.  They had Stanford on November 22nd and then Furman followed by Army with Elon on deck meanwhile Wisconsin had Georgetown and Oklahoma followed by Marquette which is a much more challenging stretch.  Either way this Wisconsin team seems to be on their way after defeating Kentucky.  I don't worry about a let down here as they are led by senior Frank Kaminsky and Bo Ryan is one of the most under rated coaches in all of basketball. 

Michigan St +6 5.5* NCAAB POD / 2* bonus on ML +220

I really just don't see this line getting any higher so I'm going to snatch it at +6.  I really think Michigan State can win this game as they are peaking at the right time.  Duke is extremely young and I really worry about the week off and the increase in press.  Now Coach K is an exceptional coach for those distractions, but in the end Michigan State is getting a lot of disrespect.  The alleged height advantage they have is not that significant when you take into consideration that the Spartans rebound extremely well and they also alter opponents shots ranking in the top 50 in shot block%.  Duke relies heavily on Jahlil Okafor and I could see him getting in foul trouble early here or at least that will be part of the strategy.  Look these teams met very early in the year and Duke won by 10 points.  Michigan State played their worst defensive game and still lost by 10 points.  They are a much better team  and their NCAA success is very impressive beating Oklahoma, Louisville, and of course Virginia to get here.

[b]SUNS +13 3.3* NBA POD[/b]

I will back the Suns here knowing they are a desperate team right now that can not lose meanwhile the Warriors have the #1 seed locked up.  The Warriors have covered 8 of their last 10 which I feel is a good reason for Vegas to raise the price to play them, but this team may start to take it easy now as far as intensity goes while the Suns should be laying it all out to win this game which I believe they will have a shot at in the end.  

Louisville +2.5 4.4* POD;

Louisville U59 1H 2.2*;

Louisville +6.5/ Gonzaga +6.5 3.3* teaser;

Gonzaga +1.5 1H 2.2*

nc st +2.5 4.4* NCAAB POD - 1h UNDER 2.2* 

[b]Notre Dame +2 4.4* NCAAB POD[/b]

Notre Dame has not even come close to playing their best game meanwhile Wichita State just got done beating their in state rival Kansas.  They barely ever play, but it was a huge game and win for Wichita and now they have to face a Notre Dame team that has not played their best game and are certainly do.  I think Notre Dame comes out and wins this game getting to the elite 8 and I think they are under dogs, because a lot of people knew people would be jumping on them after beating Kansas.  I'm not buying into it and I think Notre Dame plays their best game yet.

[b]UNC +10.5 / UCLA +12.5 3.3* PLAY[/b]

Two of the highest seeds left in the tournament playing some very good teams, but both of these programs have plenty of talent to pull off an upset.  I can't see either of them losing by double digits so I'll tease them since we have been losing a lot by 1-2 points.  

Northern Iowa -2 4.4* NCAAB POD 

BONUS PLAYS INCLUDE

SD ST +5.5 1ST HALF 2.2* 

IOWA +3 1ST HALF 2.2* 

NC State +9.5 4.4* NCAAB POD

NC State comes off a very big win as they came behind with a ton of confidence down 16 to defeat LSU.  Nova looked great the entire day and cruised to an easy win, but this is a team that is partial to the upset.  NC State played a very difficult schedule this year out of conference and in conference where they did defeat UNC, Duke, and North Carolina.  I think this line is a bit inflated due to Villanova's seed and blowout in the first round, and NC State has proven they can hang with a team of Villanova's caliber. 

Maryland -4.5 4.4* POD

This is a dangerous team in the tournament and I just don't think Valpo stacks up here at all.  Valpo did not have a good strength of schedule in conference or out of conference and the two teams they did play who are usually pretty decent (New Mexico, Missouri) were not in the top 200, but they still lost by double digits.  Maryland has 9 wins against tournament teams including MIchigan State twice, Iowa State and Wisconsin for an impressive resume.  They have a SR guard in Dez Wells who will take over a game and can score from all over including the FT line.  They also have to other guys that will get to the FT line in Trimble and Layman and they have some big enough guys to contend with Valpo's trio.  More athleticism and great guard play here will be the difference. 

Texas -1 5.5* NCAAB POD

Texas is not supposed to be in right?  Their coach is going to be fired, but I'm not buying it this is a very good team #1 2 point defense in the country and really played well down the stretch against some tough competition.  This 2 point defense allows 37.8% and Butler will rely heavily shooting 71% of their shots from 2 point range and are ranked 203rd in 2 point % so they are going to have a real tough time scoring points in this one.  Meanwhile their defense is ranked 153rd in 2 point defense and Texas 2 point offense is better at 130th.  9 of 10 of Butler's losses were against man defense which is what Texas will play.  Texas also 4th in rebounding % and have a huge size difference along with the fact that they are a much deeper team relying on their bench for 40% of the minutes.  Isiah Taylor is the better guard in this match up and the combo of Myles Turner, Holmes and Rolley will be too much for the perennial Cinderella team in Butler. 

Portland Blazers -2 3.3* NBA POD

Grabbing this line early here I just think Portland is in a better spot in this game.  First of all Miami comes in after a huge emotional win over a hot Cleveland team and now they have to face a very good Blazers team.  I think we see a line that is a couple of points off in this one and while Portland has the #4 2 point defense, Miami has the 22nd defense.  In fact they are below average vs. 3 point shooting also ranking 22nd.  Portland is 7-1 straight up vs. teams in the bottom 10 in the league in both.  Miami meanwhile who shoots 70% + shots from inside the arch are 1-8-1 ATS vs. the top 5 team in the NBA in 2 point defense and went 2-8 straight up. 

[b]NETS -145 4* NBA POD[/b]

I'm willing to pay a premium here on the line to get back into the win column.  I'll be back later today with our NCAAB POD as well as we continue to be selective until the NCAA Tournament kicks off.  This is New Orleans 4th game in 5 nights and they are coming off a couple of big wins while the Nets are very well rested.  The Pelicans are also short without Ryan Anderson and Jrue Holliday which I feel will be a big factor down the stretch which is where the Nets have been struggling, but tonight they will have rest on their side. 

4.4* NBA POD on Nets -1.5

Minnesota Twolves +4.5 3.3* NBA POD
Portland is playing their 3rd game in 4 nights and the previous 2 were against playoff teams. Now they have to face the Twolves who lets be honest is not on their radar. On deck is the Houston Rockets who are tied with them in the West playoff picture. I expect a little look a head and a spot for Portland to relax just a bit too much as Minnesota can beat good teams especially at home.

Duquesne +7.5 4.4* NCAAB POD

Millions watched as Davidson defeated VCU on Thursday night in what was considered a "bubble game"  With just 1 day rest they have to travel to finish up against Duquesne on the road after a 82-55 win.  This is a huge letdown spot for the visitors with just 1 day of rest.  Davidson dominated the Dukes back on February 7th winning 95-69, and I look at a similar situation with arguably the best team in the A10 in Dayton who beat the Dukes 81-55 at home and went on the road to lose 83-73 on February 21st.  The Dukes have been extremely competitive and unfortunate at home.  They lost to St. Bonaventure in OT, to VCU by just 6, Rhode Island by 1, but have some excellent wins over Dayton and George Mason, and George Washington at home.  I think they'd like to close out the season with one more great performance. 

Wizards -1 3.3* NBA POD

Syracuse +6 4.4* NCAAB POD

Utah -1.5 3.3* POD
I expect Utah to get revenge here tonight on Arizona. Both teams are pretty evenly matched and Arizona probably does have more talent, but Utah is one of the most efficient teams in the country on defense and offense. Arizona has already lost 3 times on the road and 2 of those losses that team was top 50 in 2 point defense. Utah is ranked #4 in 2 point defense where Arizona will attempt nearly 80% of their shots. I always like looking at that factor because it allows you to really break down a game from the perspective of where the game will be played the majority of time. Arizona does not really have any road wins to really hang their hat on and Utah has one of the best home court advantages especially with their unique elevation factor. The same advantage has translated into the NBA for the Jazz and for the Utah football programs. Utah is 38-12-1 ATS in their last 51 home games and I expect them to take this game tonight. 

Pacers +4 4.4* NCAAB POD

I have been very conservative this year in NBA betting, but when I see an opportunity I like I jump all over it.  The Cavs are red hot winning 18 of 20 and they are off their biggest win of the season a big 110-99 at home against the leagues best team, the Golden State Warriors.  This is a great let down spot for this team while they are also playing in their 5th game in 8 days.

The Pacers are definitely having a tough time this year but they are playing their best basketball.  They have also beaten the Warriors and are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 while their only 2 losses came against the Spurs and the Thunder. 

 Portland +3 4.4* POD

Very similar situation as BYU is looking ahead to their showdown against Gonzaga where Portland wants revenge on BYU for their loss earlier this season.  They definately have the offense for it and I think they will get a win at home where BYU has won 4 in a row SU and ATS are being a bit over valued here.  Portland faced BYU on the road and played their worst defense of the season along with being -10 FTA.  They are a different team at home and it will show tonight. 

Eastern Mich pk 5.5* NCAAB POD

I love Eastern Michigan in this spot right now they have a very good team that is very good on its home court (14-2 on the season).  They have been able to get it done with excellent defense at home and I think it continues tonight.  In the first match up between these teams Eastern Mich just played terribly with their 25th worse offensive night and 17th worse defensive night meanwhile Central enjoyed their 3rd best defensive game.  I don't see that happening on the road where they have struggled and their inexperience has shown as they rank 222nd in experience to Eastern Michigan's 86th ranked experience.  This defense is ranked top 75 in turnover %, effective FG%, 2 point and 3 point defense, block % and steal % and rank 58th in adjusted defense overall having faced a 102nd adjusted offensive schedule.  Now Central Mich comes into the game ranking 32nd in adjusted offense but really can't take them seriously considering their opponents rank 292nd in adjusted defense.  They are 1-3 vs. the MAC's top 4 defensive teams and their only win was at home vs. Eastern Michigan who wants revenge here tonight.  I typically think the revenge factor is a bit over rated, but this game has a lot that I like about it from the home defensive team with more experience and revenge to the fact that Central Michigan played one of their better games in the first match up while Eastern Mich played one of their worst.  I bet that switches around here tonight.

[b]Georgia Tech +6.5 3.3* play [/b]

[b]MICH ST -118 4* NCAAB POD[/b]

I'll take the Spartans here with a little revenge on their mind having lost to Illinois on their own court not that long ago.  Michigan State shot 38% that day and 38.9% from the FT line and I'm betting those numbers improve dramatically here today.  Michigan State has a lot of experience on their side and although Illinois is 12-1 at home they have been far luckier than Michigan State with close wins that could have gone either way.  They are also 1-3 vs. the top 5 defenses in the Big Ten excluding Michigan State.  Michigan State still is the #1 defensive efficiency team in Big Ten play and I expect them to play like it here today.

[b]Northern Arizona -1 4.4* NCAAB POD[/b]

I like Northern Arizona in this spot in conference play this is a veteran led team ranking 53rd in the country in experience and Eastern Washington comes in with their 20-6 record riding high, but Eastern Washington is 10th in strength of schedule in Big Sky conference play they are the #1 offensive efficiency however they just shoot too many 3's and they are facing the #2 conference defensive efficiency team.  Northern Arizona has a huge advantage here at home they are the better defensive team by far and rebounding even gets better with a 52.7% rebound rate compared to Eastern Washington's 46.1% on the road.  Eastern Washington has not shot the ball as well on the road and they have been very lucky this year in games that are supposed to be close and I'm betting against their luck here today.

BOSTON COLLEGE +6 4.4* NCAAB POD

Tennessee +13.5 3.3* NCAAB POD

Georgia Tech -150 5.5* NCAAB POD

[b]Quinnipiac +3 4.4* NCAAB POD[/b]

I'll take Quinnipiac in this spot who already lost to Iona on the road this year as Iona shot 12-23 from 3.  That's Iona's bread and butter and they are not shy about hoisting up the 3, but Quinnipiac defends well at home 31.6% beyond 3 and they are #1 in the nation overall in rebounding % while Iona is #228.  Quinnipiac is also #1 in 2 point defense and block % in conference play so they should enjoy a good advantage inside the arch.  As long as they can put together an effective game plan to defend the perimeter I see them winning this game or covering the 3 point spread on Sunday. 

Michigan State -2 4.4* NCAAB POD

I'll take the Spartans here today. For one i feel these two teams are pretty even and their strengths and weaknesses are pretty damn similar.  Ohio State has a freshman as their best player while Michigan State is built more on a team aspect with talent spread around.  They are under sized compared to Ohio State yet they are a far superior rebounding team which to me just is odd.  Michigan State lost their last home game against Illinois and I don't see them losing this one.  They have been pretty unlucky all year, but I believer their advantage in experience will be the difference.  In addition Ohio State has covered 4 of their last 5 games ATS and the margin of victories ATS have been very high.  We get an inflated line here because of it.

Ohio State also returns Marc Loving today from suspension which I think will do more harm than good.  He was averaging roughly 25 min before the suspension and you really can't expect to just plug him back in with results or without impacting the chemistry a bit.  Michigan State's  2point and 3 point offensive and defensive ranks are the best  averaging a national rank of 33.75.  Ohio State is just 3-4 on the road and have lost to Purdue, Iowa, Indiana, and Louisville and all 4 of those teams struggle more in at least two categories.  Michigan State is more complete and consistent and I think their motivation to win this game is right in line with our prediction.  

[b]Providence +155 4* NCAAB POD[/b]

I'm going with the Fryars to upset Villanova here tonight who in reality have not had a tough schedule at all especially their schedule away from home.  Nova just got done seeking revenge on GEorgetown at home after they got beat badly against them on the road and I think Providence is in a good spot here to pull the upset.  First of all they have had a more challenging schedule overall and in conference play.  Providence is very good at getting to the FT line especially at home and Nova is just 90th in 2 point defense allowing 45.2% overall but on the road they allow 49.9%.  I expect Providences offense to just be fine and that means this game comes down to whether or not Villanova can make three's.  They have done it well all year, but a team like this who relies on the 3 ball so much is a very risky play.  Providence is very good defending the 3 at home at 30.9% and are 17-5-1 ATS in their last 23 home games.  I'll take the Fryars to come up with a big win and guarantee themselves a spot in the tournament. 

[b]Celtics +7 3.3* NBA POD[/b]

This is a tough spot for the Atlanta Hawks after such a great first half they will finally get a chance to relax for a bit after they face the Celtics on the road.  With that on the horizon they play their 3rd game in 4 nights and it's another on the road.  Granted they are 21-6 ATS this season on 1 days rest something has got to give.  Boston will be far more rested here with 3+ days off and I think the energy will show as they really have nothing else to prepare for with a week off after this game. 

Texas Tech +10.5 3.3* NCAAB POD

[b]Memphis Grizzlies -133 4.5* NBA POD[/b]

I'm taking the Grizzlies to defeat the Atlanta Hawks.  The Grizzlies are off a bad loss while the Atlanta Hawks just got done beating the Warriors at home in an exciting show down.  It's hard to see them not having any type of a let down after that game while the Grizzlies are still a tough defensive team that rarely loses in these type of moments.  I'm expecting a double digit win, but given our poor luck in losing games ATS by 1-2 points of late we will be taking the Grizzlies money line here today.  

[b]San Diego State -120 4* NCAAB POD[/b]

We have gotten unlucky lately on top plays missing a few by just 1 point and it happened again last night despite Northern Illinois leading most of the way they were able to fall apart and lose by 4 points when we had them at +3 which really pissed me off but that's the nature of basketball which is why we are typically selective.  Here today I think we get excellent value on San Diego State playing their biggest threat to winning the Mountain West in Boise State.  San Diego State in my opinion is at another level than Boise State who relies on offense ranking 36th in adjusted ranking, but they have faced an opponent defense SOS of 186th.  San Diego State is by far the best defense they have faced all year long ranking 5th overall and top 25 in defending the 2 and 3 ball.  San Diego State also rebounds well and can turn you over and they have done so against a very tough schedule along the way.  Boise leaves a lot to be desired defensively including their 207th ranked 2 point defense ranking.  They are good about not sending teams to the FT line which is a good thing for the Aztecs because they are not very good % wise when they get there.  San Diego State is 5-0 vs. teams not in the top 200 in 2 point defense with an average margin of victory of 14.2.  This game's line is off a bit because San Diego State has struggled a bit on the road, but I believe their focus is on this game.

Northern Illinois +3 4.4* NCAAB POD[/b]

Northern Illinois is 3-6 in conference play Bowling Green 6-3 and everyone is jumping on BG to get their 2nd win vs. Northern Illinois after they beat them by 10 earlier in the year, but the only difference in that game was Bowling Green's ability to hit 3's as they went 7-18 while Northern Illinois shot 2-12.  Neither team has an elite offense in fact in conference play Bowling Green is ranked 9th in offensive efficiency and Northern Illinois is ranked 11th.  The difference being BG can not manufacturer offense in creative ways while Northern Illinois is 1st in offensive rebounding % and FT rate.  Northern Illinois has an even greater advantage at home where they are +12 FTA, +4 rebounding and +3 turnover margin on the season on average at home. I think they will win all 3 categories and ad din the fact that Bowling Green wins with defense, but is 7th in 2 point defense overall is a scary stat with Northern Illinois shooting all of their shots from 2 70% roughly.  Bowling Green defends it well at home 39.6% but on the road that number climbs to 53.5%.  

Clippers -1 3.3* NBA POD

[b]Iowa -125 5* NCAAB POD[/b]

One play tonight as we continue to let our forumulas tune as we have hit a bit of a rocky road, but I really like Iowa's chances here as the better team despite losing three in a row (they were dogs in each).  Michigan comes into the game playing well going 4-0 ATS without some key players in their leading scorer Caris Levert and Derrick Walton who is their 2nd leading scorer, but it's about to add up for them in a game that Iowa absolutely needs.  Iowa has had the #1 strength of schedule in Big Ten play and I don't considering Michigan one of the top teams right now.  Iowa has a top 50 team when it comes to experience while Michigan is one of the least experienced teams in the nation.  I expect Iowa to use that experience and get a big win here on the road which is not uncharacteristic of them as they have already beaten Minnesota, Ohio State, and North Carolina on the road. 

[b]Wizards +6 3.3* NBA POD[/b]

I will take Washington here as the Hawks finally ended their historic winning streak in New Orleans a day ago and now they are playing their 4th game in 6 nights traveling back home for this one.  Washington meanwhile has lost 3 straight and is desperate for a win and playing a big time game against Atlanta could be exactly what this team needs.  After all they did get smacked by the Hawks by 31 points the last time and allowed over 50% from three point land.  I just don't see that happening or John Wall and Bradley Beal turning the ball over 10+ times like they did in the first match up.  The last match up was a tough spot for Washington after they just beat down the Bulls with the Spurs up next this time it's a tough spot for Atlanta with Golden State, the leagues best team coming in next.  I expect a let down here especially after their winning streak. It's like when pitcher finally gives up the hit in the 8th inning of his no hit or perfect game.  Typically the flood gates open and hits come in volume.  I expect the Hawks to go on a bit of a losing streak from here.  

[b]USC +11 3.3* NCAAB POD[/b]

This is a rematch of a game about a month ago and USC was extremely young then and they still are, but 30 days a team definitely improves and on that day they clearly could not have played any worse shooting 38.5% getting out rebounded by 6 and -15 FTA  while allowing Utah to shoot 58% from 3.  Utah is a different team at home and while I think they will win this game it will take a lot more effort to do so.  Utah has the 10th toughest schedule in PAC 12 play so they have been lucky with how they have gotten here.  I think the fact that they shot 42% of their shots from outside and USC does defend well at home 30.8% and the fact that they have a game to look at to make adjustments gives us plenty of value here on USC. 

Depaul +12 4.4* NCAAB POD

Villanova is the better team, but with this game being on the road it's a little more evena nd I don't see 12 points being enough to separate these two teams.  First of all the strength of schedules have been very similar only Depaul has had the #1 toughest schedule in Big East play while Nova has had the 9th toughest.  Nova's main strategy is to get open looks from 3 while they have taken 40% of their shots and it did them well shooting 13-29 from 3 at home vs. Depaul which I don't see happening again as Depaul is ranked 28th overall in 3 point defense.  Both of these teams are rather similar ranking in top 100 shooting the 3 and top 30 in defending it and I think Depaul will have greater success here today shooting and defending.  When you look at home away splits Depaul is shooting it 39.2 % from beyond the arch and defending at 26.5 while Nova is a bit worse 34.3 vs. 29.4.

Depaul has been a good team at home already beating St. Johns, Xavier, Marquette, a good Stanford team and they lost by 6 to Georgetown who Nova lost to by 20.  I wouldn't be shocked to see Depaul win this game, but my money is on them to keep this game within single digits. 

[b]Bulls +7 3.3* NBA POD[/b]

We are getting some value here on the under dog after a 3 point line move.  Chicago has been very good on the road this year going 17-7 and they have been very good following a loss going 14-4 this year.  Phoenix also caught in a spot where they could be looking ahead to the Warriors and Grizzlies who are in their conference and play on Saturday and Monday night.  The concern with the Bulls is back to back OT games and this being their 3rd game in 4 nights, but this is a tough team and the fact that they rebound well and defend the paint gives me plenty of confidence.  

Middle Tennessee -110 4.4* NCAAB POD

Middle Tenn is just the better team here and I'll play them to win on the road.  First of all the biggest difference between these two teams is their opponents faced while Texas San Antonio has the 317th ranked strength of schedule and has beaten only 1 team in the top 250 Middle Tennesee is ranked 168th in strength of schedule. To put it in perspective Middle Tennessee has beaten 12 (all of their wins) vs. top 250 schools and their lowest opponent loss was against #163.  UTSA is #219 and that's only because of their adjusted offense is ranking #117, but their  defense is the real story ranking 299th in adjusted efficiency while their 2 point and 3 point defenses do not rank inside the top 300 in the nation.  Middle Tenn is 4-0 vs. defenses not in the top 250 and they have beaten all of the conference defenses that have struggled. 

Creighton +1 -105 3.5* NCAAB POD

I like Creighton int his spot to finally get their first Big East win of the year.  St. Johns comes into an interesting spot after playing Duke as Coach K got his 1000th victory.  I'm sure they put a lot of effort to make sure that didn't happen on their floor, but came up short.  It's not like Creighton has been a bad team they have been largely unlucky and have faced a very difficult schedule.  Kenpom has them as the #1 toughest schedule in conference play while St. Johns is 7th so I'm not surprised they have lost every game.  They still have a top 100 offense adjusted at the end of the day and they are playing at home.  Their adjusted SOS for defenses faced is 24th while St John's is ranked 11th in defensive efficiency in conference play.  St Jonh's is 4-6 vs. Top 100 offenses and 3 of those 4 wins came at home. 

NETS +14 3.3* NBA POD

Florida -1 5.5* NCAAB POD

Florida is a desperate team right now meanwhile Auburn just came off a home win over their biggest rival in Auburn in dramatic fashion.  Florida is a far better team that has gotten really unlucky this year but they are top 60 in 2 point offense and defense as well as top 100 in offense and defensive rebounding.  Alabama not a good rebounding team at all ranks 187th in rebound rate on the season while Florida is 78th.  I see a bit of a hang over for Alabama here with Kentucky up next it's a nice sandwich game and I love how desperate this Florida team should be here tonight.  Alabama also is 0-3 vs. top 50 2 point defensive teams which Florida fits.  Meanwhile Florida is 6-1 vs. teams that do not rank in the top 100 in adjusted defense which Alabama fits.  Florida has faced a more challenging schedule ranked 16th toughest and it will benefit them down the stretch. 

[b]76ers +15 3.3* NBA POD[/b]

This is a tough spot for the Pelicans playing in their 6th game in 9 days.  They get the lowly 76ers, and I doubt they are going to be up to dominate this game and win by 16 points or more.  Pelicans also just came off a huge upset win at home over Dallas on Sunday which sets them up for a potential let down spot.  The 76ers meanwhile come in on 1 days rest after losing 83-101 as 17.5 point dog vs. Memphis.  However, the day of rest and the value we are getting here is too much to pass up considering the situation.  The Pelicans also are without Jrue Holliday and already lost on the road to the 76ers as a 7 point favorite.  Since when is home court worth 8 points in the NBA?  

NC State +1.5 4.4* NCAAB POD

Looking over these two teams there is not much that separates them.  Notre Dame's offensive stats are very impressive, but you have to take a look at who they have played.  So far they rank 277th in strength of schedule meanwhile NC State comes into this game ranking #34th in strength of schedule.  NC State is a well balanced team top 100 in offensive and defensive efficiency.  They are also the better rebounding team especially at home.  The great thing about NC State is that they are a focused team going 7-0 following a loss.  They lost a game against Virginia on the road and bounced back to beat Duke on their home court recently.  I think Notre Dame could also be peaking to their game on Wednesday with Duke.

[b]Pacers -125 4* NBA POD[/b]

Both of these teams are struggling, but the Pacers get George Hill back who is an intricate part of this team over the years.  There is no doubt their offense will improve with him back on the court.  Orlando is just a bad bad team as they are ranking 20th in 2 point %, but even worse when playing at home, while also ranking 27th in 2 point defense and 26th in rebounding %.  Those 3 categories are what I call the core of the game.  On any given day anyone can get hot, but statistically speaking the odds are against them here.  Indiana is worse in 2 point offense, but I believe that improves with Hill's ability to find guys open looks and their defense is still one of the best ranking 7th in 2 point defense.  Orlando is 4-11 vs. top 10 2 point defensive teams this year.  Indiana is also 6th in rebounding rate and Orlando is 6-13 vs. top 10 rebounding teams.  

Bucks +2.5 3.3* NBA POD

LA Monroe +1 4.4* NCAAB POD

I will go with the home dog in this spot.. First of all Monroe has faced a much more difficult schedule than Georgia Southern along the way at #197 compared to #309 for Georgia Southern.  Both teams have top 100 adjusted defenses with offenses that struggle.  I took a look at what each team did against top 100 defenses and LA Monroe was more impressive at 2-2 facing Florida on the road they took them to OT, and they lost by only 8 at New Mexico.  Actually all 4 of their games vs. top 100 defenses came on the road so it's no shock to me why their offense has struggled this year.  Meanwhile Georgia Southern went 3-1, but they played TExas State twice who is ranked 275th in 2 point defense where as Monroe carries a top 50 2 point and 3 point % defense.  Georgia also had the advantage of playing 2 of those games at home, but now they are on the road where Monroe should also enjoy the rebounding edge.  Also worth noting is the fact that Georgia Southern is ranked 92nd in 2 point defense but on the road they are allowing 46.5% compared to Monroe who is allowing 41.4% at home.  Remember Monroe has had a more challenging schedule to get there.

Indiana -110 3.3* NCAAB POD

I'm going with the Hoosiers here as Maryland is getting a lot of credit and rightfully so, but I still think they are a bit over rated for this spot on the road.  They did beat Michigan State twice already this year, but they have been a team that you can score on and Indiana has a top 50 offense and they can score from inside and out.  Meanwhile they have struggled to guard the 2, but Maryland struggles to shoot it especially on the road.  Indiana is 4-1 vs. power conferences who have top offenses and when you look at those teams who struggle to score inside they are 2-0.  Both Pitt and Butler have quality offenses but their 2 point offense is a weakness much like Maryland all 3 ranked outside the top 100 in 2 point offense. 

[b]Ole Miss +4.5 4.4* NCAAB POD[/b]

Both teams here come off equal impressive victories, but Georgia just beat their #1 rival in Florida and they did so as an under dog so I'm expecting a bit of a hang over here as Ole Miss comes to town getting 4 points which I just feel is too much.  Ole Miss has some great wins and has faced the SEC's toughest schedule and have looked better doing so than Georgia.  The biggest difference is defense.  Both teams are going to attempt the majority of their shots inside the arch (over 70%) and Georgia is ranked 14th (dead last) in the conference defending the 2 point game and they rank 78th int he nation.  Meanwhile Ole Miss is 11th in the nation defending the 2.  They had success recently against Kentucky nearly winning in OT on the road so they should not be freaked out by going on the road in conference play one bit.  Ole Miss also handles the ball better and is nearly even with Georgia in rebounding.  I expect a tight game throughout with Ole Miss pulling out to an early lead.  

Georgetown +4 4.4* NCAAB POD

I think the Hoyas have the ingredients to pull off the upset as they are very good in 2 point defense and 2 point offense.  They are the more physical team and better rebounding team and playing at home.  Also worth noting is the fact that Georgetown has played the 25th toughest schedule while Nova is at 63rd.  Both teams are top 60 in adjusted offense and defense, but really sticks out in this one is Georgetown's 12th ranked block % and 47th ranked 2 point % defense.  Their ability to defend in the paint is critical here and the fact that the majority of their shots will come from here it's key that Villanova, a team getting a ton of hype right now has the 110th ranked 2 point defense.  Georgetown will take 71%+ of their shots from 2 and  Nova allows 45.6% and even worst at 49.7% on the road.  12 of their opponents have not even been top 150 in 2 point offense so it's not like they've faced quality teams along the way.  The teams that have been good at scoring inside the arch have regularly put up 70+ points but don't have the defense and rebounding ability that Georgetown has. Georgetown is 9-0 when they score 71+ points this season which I think they get to tonight. 

[b]Oregon +4 4.4* NCAAB POD[/b]

This is offense vs. defense with Oregon being in the top 100 in offense and in the top 10 in tempo while Washington is top 50 in defense.  Washington has really had an easy schedule to start the year 240th ranked SOS while Oregon sits in at 141.  The stats are similar on both sides so I'm not surprised that the line is 4 points, but I believe we are getting just a a couple of extra points and the fact that Oregon comes off a lost while Washington comes off a win gives me enough incentive to pull the trigger. 

Oregon can play defense as well ranked 13th in 2 point defense compared to Washington at 5th, but the difference in this game is rebounding and getting to the FT line.  Oregon is better ranking 12th in FT % while Washington is at 273 and they are a slightly better rebounding team as well.  I think their pace is also going to get to Washington who is used to a slower type of game which allows them to set up their defense and be in good position.  A team that pushes their possessions changes that completely and it's not surprising to see that Washington is 1-2 against top pace teams with their win coming by just 2 points over Oklahoma.

Oregon State +3 4.4* NCAAB PO

I'm going with Oregon State here as the defensive team going against an offensive team.  Oregon State and Washington State are being said to be evenly matched based on this spread.  Washington State was just an 11.5 point dog at Washington meanwhile Oregon State was a 7 point dog vs. Washington so I really see that this spread should be -1 or a pk for this game, but because Washington State has just won three straight games SU and ATS as an under dog in conference play we have to respect them, but I just feel the more balanced team is Oregon State.  They also come off a loss where they have been especially dangerous going 21-8-2 ATS in their last 31.  They have a top 50 defense and WAshington State has gone just 3-3 vs. top 100 defenses.  Washington State relies on the 3 ball way too much and are shooting it 43% of the time at home, but Oregon State is 12th in the nation at defending the 3.

On the flip side we have Washington State here who is a top 100 offense ranked 74th in adjusted offense.  Oregon State has gone 4-2 vs. top 100 offenses and when they face a defense that's outside the top 200 they are 6-0.  Defense really carries a team on the road and I love the guard play of Oregon State led by Gary Payton (yes the son of Gary Payton).  He's a reason why they are so good defending the 3 and rank top 20 in turnover % defense.  This team is also ranked 75th in rebounding % compared with Wash State who is 148th.  They just are flat out the better team and not being treated as such. 

Idaho +5.5 4.4* NCAAB POD

I like the Vandals here in this spot.  They are the better team overall and though they are on the road we only account 3-4 points so I think they should be more like a 3 point under dog yet we are getting over 5 points at some books.  Both of these clubs have top 100 offenses and are #1 and #2 in offense in their conference but are below average on defense ranking 10th and 11th in conference play.  Idaho overall has faced a bit stronger schedule as far as the offenses they have gone up against and they have held up better vs. top 100 offenses going 1-2 but holding those opponents to 89, 86, and 71 meanwhile Sacramento State vs. top 100 offenses (like they'll face today) has gone 0-3 and allowed 84, 80 and 104 losing by 11, 5, and 46.  Their last game vs. Northern Colorado looks awfully similar to this game. Northern Colorado has a top 100 offense (Idaho is a bit better) and a bottom of the league defense (Idaho is a bit better).  Overall I'd say Idaho is a better team than Northern Colorado who is far worse in rebound rate and just a bit worse in 2 point defense.  Actually Idaho is better in both those categories than Sac State.  The most glaring is the advantage they'll have on the boards here tonight ranking in the top 100 in rebound rate while Sacramento State comes in at 237th.  I expect Idaho to win this game outright but 5.5 points is just too good to be true. 

[b]Vanderbilt -2 3.3* NCAAB POD[/b]

I will go with the home team here tonight as I think Vanderbilt is in better shape to take this game.  Georgia is off 2 losses including a dramatic over time loss to LSU and they have a look ahead spot with Florida up next a game that is much sexier than playing Vanderbilt.  Vanderbilt has a very solid team and are also coming off a loss without any look ahead games and the Commodores are 36-16-1 ATS in their last 53 games following a ATS loss.

Georgia is going to take 75% of their shots from 2 point range and Vanderbilt is a very good rebounding team especially at home where they get 55% of the rebounds.  Their defense improves by 5% from 2 point range when they are at home so that's another edge they will have in this game.  Georgia's defense just has not transitioned on the road and they are one of the worst  in the SEC.  They have played 4 top 50 adjusted offenses this year (Vanderbilt is 30th), and have gone 1-3 and I think tonight will make them 1-4. 

76ers +16.5 3.3* NBA POD

16.5 points is a lot of points to lay even though the 76ers typically are up to the task, but they come off a double digit home loss where they are 10-3 ATS following such a scenario.  They also have some decent wins of late and have won 3 of their last 5 while the Raptors have lost 5 of their last 6.  The Raptors also have a bigger game ahead of them in Atlanta. Toronto also has not played good enough defense for me to back them as such a favorite ranking 23rd in opponent shooting %, Philadelphia ranks 21st and 25th in 2 point % where Philadelphia will take 75% of their shots on Wednesday night.

Bulls +1.5 3.3* NBA POD

I will go with the Bulls here considering they are coming off a 20 point loss to the Jazz and I know Coach Tom Thibodeau is an excellent coach who preaches defense first and will want to rebound in a hurry and going up against a very good playoff team like the Wizards will be an excellent way of forgetting the embarrassment from their last game.  Meanwhile the Wizards just won over the Knicks by 10, but the Knicks are the worst team in the league and were playing withouth Anthony Soutdemire and JR Smith.

Michigan State +3 -102 3.5* NCAAB POD

I will take the Spartans here in conference play as a dog.  First of all their adjusted offense and defensive numbers are quite impressive being 43rd on the offensive end and 9th on the defensive end.  Their offense is very balanced with 4 guys averaging double digits which normally translates well on the road  and they have a guy in Denzel Valentine that can score from anywhere on the court. The Spartans have also played 4 top 20 teams at the time they have played them and rank 90th in strength of schedule.  There loss to Texas Southern at home and then losing to Maryland at home as well is what gives us some nice value on the road here.  The defense is playing much better and they are top 25 in effective FG% on the defensive and offensive end.

Iowa on the other hand are 260th in strength of schedule and they are 261st in effective FG%.  They rebound well and play solid defense, but I think both teams here play solid defense and Michigan State really has the advantage in coaching and in their offense.  This will be a tough task for the Spartans, but I think they are up for it.

Pacers +11.5 3.3* NBA POD

I like Indiana here tonight getting 11.5 points as they are 8-2 ATS as a dog of 8+ points this year and 13-4-1 ATS on 1 days rest.  The Warriors have been red hot beating some very good teams in impressive fashion winning by ATS margins of 22.5, 16.5, and 22.5 so Vegas has been pretty far off.  They are still getting the majority of the money here tonight, but I think we will see an inspired performance from the Pacers facing off a team that is now the #1 defense in the league in the Warriors which is something the Pacers were very proud of in years past.  

Florida -115 3.5* NCAAB POD

I really like Florida here to rebound following 2 straight losses as heavy favorites.  Despite having a worse record we have them ranked higher than South Carolina who is off to a hot start at 7-3 ATS while Florida comes in at 3-8-1 ATS.  Don't let those records fool you as South Carolina has faced a strength of schedule of 178th while Florida comes in at 62nd.  Florida has the 81st adjusted offensive ranking compared to South Carolina at 133, but both of these teams play defense.  I think the team that's more desperate with the better offense will be able to come out of this with a key victory especially since the home team is riding high off their recent upset of Iowa State as a 6.5 point dog which is making them a heavier favorite than they should. 

Texas A&M +5 3.3* NCAAB POD / Under 126.5 2.2* bonus[/b]

the public has pushed this number quite a bit but I'll take A&M who I think is the better team at least in adjusted rankings.  Home court is not worth this many points and there are several other factors that make Alabama a risky play such as the number of times they take three point shots.  Roughly 40% of their shots are from three and that really falls into the Aggies strength here ranking 41st in three point defense and they have actually allowed 25.6% on the road.  Overall they rank #54 in adjusted defense compared to Alabama who is ranked 74th.  So we also get the better defense on the road while we also get the better rebounding team as A&M ranks 62nd compared to Alabama at 141st.  I also think Alabama's offense has been as good as it has been because of the teams they have faced as the opponent defense strength of schedule comes in at 327.  This is clearly a step up and A&M should keep this game in the 50's.  A&M faced two similar teams with this type of defense and were held to 52 and 56 points against Wichitah State and UCLA neither of which are ranked in the top 100 in 3 point defense or even 2 point defense for that matter.  For that reason I will also go with the under as the Aggies are Under in 43 of their last 62 road games and the Crimson Tide are also under in their last 4 vs. the SEC and 31 of their last 43 following a SU win.

Georgia -170 2* free play

I'll take Georgia on the money line here for a free play.  All my free plays will be on the money line either for favorites or under dogs.  I missed this at a better line, but I'm still confident playing Georgia considering they are the unranked team as favorites.  Georgia is actually the better team and have faced the 45th toughest schedule compared to Arkansas and their 267th.  Georgia has a 7.5% rebound rate advantage in home/away splits and Arkansas's high flying offense really has not faced a defense with an opponent defense strength of schedule ranked 247.  Georgia plays defense as good as any team ranked 19th in adjusted defense and 18th in 2 point % defense where Arkansas will take many of their shots.

Don't miss out on our NCAAB POD as we are up over 100 units in our career on NCAAB TOP PLAYS!

JAZZ +3 4.4* NBA POD

[b]Heat +5.5 4.4* NBA POD[/b]
I have been nearly perfect in this series and I'll go with the road dog again.  I think the Heat have a lot more fight left in them and the last two games definitely drove up the price to back the Spurs at home.  I'll take that added value and I think the Heat will play their hearts out and be in position to win the game down the stretch.. Right now the Miami locker room has got to be using the "no team has ever come back from a 3-1 deficit" to their advantage.  Lebron James is still the best player and while I faded his team at home in back to back games I just think this team is too good to just lay down especially after getting embarrassed in back to back games on their own court.  Expect them to bounce back here and perhaps win the game.

Spurs +5 4.4* NBA POD
I like the Spurs here again as I just don't see how they are bigger under dogs on the Heat's court than they were favorites in San Antonio.  When you look at the series the Spurs could easily be up 3-0 if it weren't for San Antonio missing FT's down the stretch in game 2.. I think as this series continues the depth of the Spurs continues to be the factor and major advantage for them.  Miami Heat just can't score with the Spurs and San Antonio is also a better defensive and rebounding team too!  I expect another game to come down to the wire as the Heat are 11-0 in their last 11 games following a loss in the playoffs.  The Spurs are well aware of this and well aware of how they let the Heat back in the series a season ago.

Spurs +5 5.5* NBA POD
I really think the road favorite is going to have the advantage all series long especially if it's a critical game which it is for the Spurs.  Each game is going to come down to the last few possessions and I believe at 5 points the value is right on San Antonio after a few days off.  I think this Spurs team is hungry and they know they could be up 2-0 at this point but missed FT's hurt them bad.  I expect them to bounce back in a big way.  This line just moved 9 points in 1 game and I don't think home court is worththa t much.  The Spurs continue to play well in the east going 40-18-1 ATS int heir last 59 vs. the Southeast

Heat +4.5 5.5* NBA pod 

I've got to take the heat in the game as a max play of the day I really feel like the key players are going to convince themselves that the Spurs turn the AC off on purpose even heard LeBron saying down the stretch that that's what they were trying to do even though I'm sure did down they don't believe that bottle use that as motivation in this game to which is a critical game for the heat if they want to make it three straight NBA titles.  The heater also great coming off straight up loss of more than 10 points going 23 and nine against the spread over the last 32 I really feel like the Spurs with one eight in a row at home against spread this playoffs are due to slip up here.  Not to mention the fact that both these teams are pretty similar to last years teams that fought in the NBA finals and the heat were actually one point favorites so this is giving us five points differential to work with I think this line has a lot of value as I said in game one.  Game one also proved that the heat are not going to go away the lead late night game before LeBron went out with four minutes to go which he cramps and then the Spurs going on 16 to 3 run LeBron will hold a grudge against that and call me when this game himself if he has to.

Heat +5 4.4* NBA POD
The Heat are 5 point under dogs?  I want to believe that the Spurs are going to win this series, but I think 5 points is too many.  The Spurs were -3.5 point favorites in the regular season and the Heat were 1 point favorites in San Antonio a year ago.  Honestly what has changed?  I think we are getting tremendous value on the Heat because the public and sharps are pushing this number up, but the Heat are at their best with extra time off.  I think we will see a battle in tonight's game that will come down to the last shot.  The refs tend to favor the road dog and at 5 points I just see all the value being on the Heat which is a rare thing.

Thunder +5 4.4* NBA POD[/b]
The Thunder are 6-0 this year against the Spurs with Ibaka in the lineup and 0-2 without him.  They held the spurs to under 40% shooting in back to back games at home and turned the series around with Ibaka in the line up.  I'm not saying the Thunder are going to win the game outright, but this is going to be another battle and I still think Kevin Durant is capable and will take over this series.  The Thunder are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 meetings with the Spurs and they just match up well when they have the big guy protecting the paint.

[b]PACERS +6 4.4* NBA POD[/b]
I think this is a generous amount of points for a defense like the Pacers to be getting especially given how well they played early in game 3.  This is a great team when it comes to playing following a loss in the playoffs and now following two losses I think they come up with a big effort that I would not be shocked if they actually tied this series up.  Miami shot 10-18 from 3 and if it weren't for Ray Allen's success in the 4th from 3 I think the Heat could be down in this series.. I look for the Pacers to make the necessary adjustments here and like I said before this team can match up with the Heat better than any.

Thunder -135 4.5* NBA POD

Pacers +6.5 4.4* NBA POD
I was on the Pacers in game 1 and the Heat ML for game #2 and I'm back riding the Pacers as this seems to be a series that will go back and forth.  First of all the Pacers are 11- and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 playoff games following a loss which includes 3-0 SU/ATS vs. the Heat last year.  Pacers did not play very well in game 1 yet they were up 4 late before Paul George got hit in the head by Wades knee.  The Heat went on a 13-2 run and took over the ball game.  George has passed all the tests for concussion related symptoms and should play.  This is a very competitive series and as I said in game 1 I just think the Pacers match up extremely well defensively vs. the Heat.

Thunder +5.5 3.3* NBA POD
The Spurs had a ton of time to prepare and get fresh against the Thunder and it clearly showed in their blow out victory, but the oddsmakers have not budged on the line.  The Thunder are without Ibaka but they have enough depth to push the Spurs at home.  After all the Mavericks did.  Spurs also will be on shorter rest here which could play a factor, but most of all I don't see the Spurs shooting 57% again against a top 5 defense like the Thunder in what is a huge game.

[b]Heat -130 5.5* NBA POD[/b]
I don't see the Pacers going up 2-0 on the Heat right now I just don't think the team has fully rebounded from their earlier playoff struggles.  Pacers are just too inconsistent to back here in this spot as Miami will get to the FT line more tonight and take less three pointers if they have to.. Miami shot well just not from 3 where they shot 26% compared with Indiana who shot 42% they also got to the FT line 22 fewer times.  Miami is 26-11a TS in their last 37 times facing a team with revenge after the same season loss.

]Pacers +3 4.4* NBA POD[/b]
Value play here as the Pacers have not had a strong post season, but they have won when they needed to and won 3 of their last 4 games.  They really look like they have turned it around and I think no team gives the Heat more issues than the Pacers with Lance Stephenson guarding either Lebron or Wade and George defending the other.. I think it's going to be a great match up that comes down to the wire.  Indiana was a great home team and against the Heat they won both games as a favorite -2 and -3.5 vs. the Heat now we are getting over 5 points to play with because of how the Pacers played down the stretch.  They had two challenging match ups to start the playoffs and the oddsmakers know they can get a ton of public action on the Heat at this number. This is a perfect fade the public spot to be in.

[b]Nets +7 4.4* NBA POD[/b]
The final score in game 4 does not really tell the full story as the Nets really had the Heat on the ropes despite not playing very well. I think the Nets can actually win game #5 here and send it back to Brooklyn, but at least cover the spread.  The Nets only hit 5 3's and Lebron had the game of his life yet the Nets were tied with less than a minute to play.. I certainly believe the Nets can improve their play the most from game 4 to game 5 and I think they have a shot at coming out with a win here.

Heat -125 4.5* NBA POD[/b]
The Heat were expected in my opinion to lose one game in this round on the road, but I don't think they will let the Nets gain any momentum in game 4.  The Heat know this is a dangerous match up with the Nets sweeping the regular season series and should be able to pick up a win.  I think the Nets will have their hands full and they certainly can not expect to shoot 15-25 from three point land again... Either way Lebron and this team have been very good in this round ATS and they have been even better following a SU loss so expect a big effort tonight by the Heat.

Thunder +5 3.3* NBA POD

[b]Nets +7.5 4.4* NBA POD[/b]
I like the Nets to rebound after getting dominated in the second half of game #1.  The Nets were within 3 points at half time, but lost by double digits.  However the Nets are filled with veterans who have been here before and have a ton of confidence.  The Nets were 14-6 ATS following a loss of 10+ points and 13-3 ATS following a loss by 15+.  The Nets won all 4 regular season match ups against the Heat by keeping Miami under 50% and winning the paint as they were +25 in rebound margin in their 4 wins combined and winning the rebounding margin in each game.

I don't think the Nets could have played worse in game 1 and I expect them to bounce back and be in this game up tot he last second.  They were out rebounded and dominated in the paint in game 1 and allowed the Heat to shoot nearly 60% while Chris Bosh recorded his first double double of the playoffs and Kevin Garnett went scoreless.  Those things will not repeat tonight and I  think it should be enough to make up the difference in points.

LAC/OKC U215 4.4* NBA POD

Both teams finished in the top 10 in defense this season and I think it will be hard for the Clippers to duplicate the kind of performance they had in game #1.  The Thunder were 3rd in opponent shooting % but they allowed Chris Paul to hit 8 3 pointers and 15-29 combined as a team and 55% overall.  The Clippers are ranked 5th in shooting % and I expect this game to be much different.

I also like the Thunder -0.5 and the Wizards +9.5 in a 5 point teaser at -130 odds

WIZARDS +4 4.4* nba pod

Mavericks +7 4.4* NBA POD

I will got with the Mavericks who have played solid basketball throughout the series and I expect them to continue the trend of playing well in San Antonio tonight.  First of all this team has not lost in SA by more than 5 pts all series long and I do not expect them to do it tonight.  The Mavericks have been a good road team going an amazing 42-14 ATS in their last 56 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Dallas is also 50-19 ATS in their last 69 road game overall.  This has been an amazing tightly played series and I even think the Mavericks have played a little better and I would not be shocked if they won today in San Antonio.  

Raptors +5 4.4** NBA POD

The Raptors flat out dominated game 5 and held on with a 2 point victory just enough to give us a 1 point cover on our +3 pick with the Nets.  I have to say it has been a while since we got that type of cover... Seems we are usually on the other end, but I will gladly take the +20 point 4th quarter the Nets had.  I think it hides the fact that the Raptors dominated that game and now I think they are poised to cover this 5 point spread in Brooklyn.  The road teams have the value in round 1 of the NBA playoffs and there is nothing in tonigh's match up that suggests otherwise.

Pacers -1 -105 5** NBA POD

At this point there is now way the Pacers should be favorites on the road nonetheless.  However, I think the oddsmakers know they can get significant money on the Hawks as small dogs and win a bunch of cash in the process.  Neither the Hawks nor the Pacers have been able to win two games in a row and I have to feel the #1 seed who is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 following a SU loss will be able to bounce back here to force a Game 7 in their own building.  The way the Hawks have shot has been ridiculous all series long hitting 10+ threes in each game and hitting 15 in their last game and at this point Pacers head coach Frank Vogel has said enough going to a smaller line up in the second half of game 5 where they were able to make a nice run.  I do not know what is going on with Roy Hibbert, but Frank Vogel is coaching for his job here and he should have no problem benching the All Star.  If Vogel does so I think the Pacers win this game by putting a smaller line up out there with Chris Copeland who came in to spread the floor in Game 5.  Hibbert is like a cancer at this point and when he is not on the court everyone is playing better so it is time for Vogel not to worry about hurt feelings and do what is needed to get this Pacers back to Indiana.  It is not likely that the Hawks will have another great shooting performance against the Pacers if they make the necessary adjustments as the Hawks are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 following a 100+ point performance and the favorite is 27-12-1 ASTS in the last 40 meetings. 

Nets +137 3* NBA POD

This series has gone back and forth and there is no reason to believe that the Nets won't rebound and win this game.  Each team has shown an ability to win on the road and I think the Nets will show up tonight in what should be a close game decided by 1 possession.  The experience of Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett will show as this series continues to go on and I expect Joe Johnson to step up and score some points.  The Nets have 2 days to prepare and although I think the coaching is a bit better on the Raptors side the experience in the Nets locker room will be the difference. 

Bobcats+325 1* play; Bobcats +8 4.4* NBA POD
The Bobcats have not beaten the Heat in 19 straight games they basically own them, but the Bobcats have played better than the series says.  Sure the Heat would love to get some rest here, but at the same time I don't know that they want too much rest with all of these games going to 7 games and they certainly are not worried about the Bobcats coming back in the series.  This is an opportunity for the Heat to take a breather and we get an inflated line.  The Bobcats were 5 point dogs a game ago and they were 9.5 and 10 point dogs in Miami.  I don't think the oddsmakers are capable of making a 3 point mistake, but I could be wrong.  I also love the fact that this league never surprises me.  Everything is about money and I may sound a little crazy to be calling out a conspiracy but if the Heat lose tonight you have to wonder if their own gave these players an incentive to have the game back in Miami for at least one more game where they can sell out and profit big time.

Spurs -169 5.5* MAX NBA POD

I'll pay the premium juice on this play as I don't see that there is any way in hell that the Spurs lose this game.  First of all the Spurs went 17-3 following a loss this year were 30-11 on the road and now they are facing the Mavericks again on the road where they went 2-0 SU & ATS this season.  The Mavericks have scoring options, but they simply don't play defense ranking 22nd in worst shooting % defense.  The Spurs went 13-2 SU and 10-5 ATS on the road this year against the bottom third defensively challenged teams.  One of those losses came to the Pistons after they were playing their 5th game in 8 days part of a grueling road trip.  I'm confident in this veteran team they are well rested and come in on 2 days rest for this game with a lot of motivation.  This team won't let their opportunity to take back home court advantage in this series slip away.  This won't be a Pacers choke job I expect the Spurs to bounce back big.

Nets/Raptors U191.5 4.4* NBA POD

On a roll right now on NBA POD's and it continues on Friday night... Both teams should resume to their game 1 forms.  This has been a half court series and I think with two defensive oriented teams looking to take the lead in the series it will be much more of the same here tonight.  The first 3 quarters of game #1 were all in the 40's and then the 4th quarter the Raptors exploded. I  don't anticipate that to happen these are two of the better defenses in the league and two of the slower paced teams in the league and I think the value in the total is good especially for a playoff game.

Warriors +3 4.4* NBA POD
The Warriors were dominated in game 2 138-98 and I think we see a change in the spread value here not to mention the line has moved up to 3 points.  I'll take the extra value as the story of the series so far has been foul trouble. In game 1 it was the Clippers in foul trouble and in game 2 it was the Warriors.  The Warriors bounce back well and are 8-3 ATS as an under dog 0-5.5 points this year.  The Warriors are 11-3 at home following a loss and 3-0 following a loss of 20+ points.  Dating back to last year they are 33-16-2 ATS following a loss and are 22-8-1 ATS in their last 31 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game.  The Warriors simply have too much talent not to be in this game and I believe they will win this game as this series is going to go back and forth with two evenly matched teams.
    

Wizards +5.5 3.3* NBA POD I see no reason to change. The Wizards have now won 3 of their 4 games against the Bulls this season. I just think the Wizards is a bad match up for the Bulls, because it forces the Bulls to score points to win.  Washington was a 2.5 point under dog during the regular season and now that the Wizards have won game 1 they have moved up again to a 5.5 point under dog so we have plenty of value here.  Chicago does not often blow teams out and I don't think they will today.