Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-30-24 | Titans +2.5 v. Dolphins | Top | 31-12 | Win | 100 | 10 h 37 m | Show |
Titans vs Dolphins MNF The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a 31-34 SU (48%) and 44-17-4 ATS record good for 72% winning bets over the past 35 seasons. The requirements are: Play on road teams that are winless on the season. The game occurs between weeks 3 and 6. The road team is priced between pick-em and a 7.5-point underdog. The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a 22-36 SU (38%) and 34-21-3 ATS record good for 62% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on road underdogs. Their QB is coming off a game with a 95 or lower QB rating. Their QB is coming off a game averaging between 4 and 7 yards per completion. The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a 25-48 SU (34%) and 53-18-2 ATS record good for 75% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on road dogs including pick-em. They are a struggling offense gaining an average of 265 or fewer yards per game. The game occurs from week 4 on to the end of the regular season. The host has a defense that allows between 265 and 295 yards per game. If the game is a non-divisional matchup our dogs have gone 12-27 SU (31) but an impressive 28-10-1 ATS for 74% winning bets since 1989. Player Props for 1-Unit Tyjae Spears Over 28.5 rushing and receiving yards. De’Von Achane Under 96.5 rushing and receiving yards. Kenneth Walker Over 67.5 rushing and receiving yards. |
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09-29-24 | Chiefs v. Chargers +7.5 | Top | 17-10 | Win | 100 | 29 h 40 m | Show |
Chiefs vs Chargers. The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a 20-23 SU (47%) and a 31-12 ATS record good for 72% winning bets over the past 5 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on underdogs facing a divisional foe. The dog is coming off a non-division game. The dog lost their previous game by 7 or more points. The dog had 19 or fewer first downs in their previous games. |
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09-29-24 | Commanders +3.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 42-14 | Win | 100 | 28 h 21 m | Show |
Commanders vs Cardinals Live Betting Strategy: Consider betting 7.5-units preflop on the Commanders and then look to add 2.5-more units if Arizona takes a 6- or 7-point lead or retakes the lead in the first half of action. The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a 51-76 SU (40%) and 86-38-4 ATS record good for 69.4% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on road underdogs priced between 3.5 and 10 points. That dog allows 28 or more points per game. If the game is a conference matchup our road dog has gone 36-55 SUI (40%) and 65-24-2 ATS for 73% winning bets. The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a 28-28 SU (50%) and 40-15-1 ATS record good for 73% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on road underdogs. The host posted a losing record in the previous season. The game occurs in the first four weeks of the season. The road team averaged fewer passing yards than the current opponent in the previous season. The host was not in the playoffs last season. The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a 20-13 SU (61%) and a 23-9-1 ATS record good for 72% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on road dogs. The host won 40% or fewer of their games in the previous season. The game occurs in weeks 2 through 4. The home team is coming off a loss. The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a 27-33 SU (45%) and a 39-20-1 ATS record good for 66% winning bets over the past 5 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on conference dogs. The dog is priced between 3 and 7.5 points. The opponent is coming off a game against a conference foe. The opponent lost their previous game priced as a dog. |
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09-29-24 | Patriots +11 v. 49ers | Top | 13-30 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 19 m | Show |
Patriots vs 49ers The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a 31-47 SU (45%) and a 53-25 ATS record good for 69% winning bets over the past 5 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on underdogs. The dog is coming off a game with three or more failed third down attempts than their opponent. The dog gained less than 400 total yards of offense. The dog was priced as the dog in their previous game. The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a 54-53 SU (51%) and a 67-37-3 ATS record good for 665% winning bets over the past 5 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on road underdogs. The game occurs in the first 8 weeks of the season. The opponent is coming off a road loss. |
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09-29-24 | Eagles -1 v. Bucs | 16-33 | Loss | -108 | 25 h 24 m | Show | |
Eagles vs Bucs The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a 25-9 SU (74%) and 22-10-2 ATS record good for 69% winning bets over the past 35 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on teams that won as a road underdog in their previous game. That team outgained their previous foe by 225 or more yards. The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a 43-39 SU (52%) and 50-30-2 ATS record good for 63% winning bets over the past 35 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on road teams priced between a 4.5-point favorite and a 4.5-point underdog. The road team defeated the current opponent in their previous game. The road team is coming off a road game. The home team is coming off a home game. The Eagles are without their two top WR but they also were without them last week for the second half of action when they mounted their come from behind win despite their head coach trying to lock in the loss with ridiculous calls on 4th down. Look for Dotson to get more targets in this matchup and for Barkley to continue gashing defensive lines with his power running. The Eagles defense led by Jalen Carter last week played very well and that will carry over to this game too. From the predictive model: My predictive models are calling for the Eagles to win the turnover battle and gain at least 125 rushing yards and have more rushing yards than the Bucs. In past games in which the Eagles met or exceeded these performance measures they went on to an 18-3 SU (86%) and 15-5-1 ATS for 75% winning bets over the past five seasons. |
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09-29-24 | Jaguars +6 v. Texans | Top | 20-24 | Win | 100 | 25 h 15 m | Show |
Jaguars vs Texans The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a 31-34 SU (48%) and 44-17-4 ATS record good for 72% winning bets over the past 35 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on winless road teams between weeks 3 and 6. They are priced between pick-em and 7,5-point dog. The dog lost their last game by double digits. |
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09-28-24 | Georgia +1 v. Alabama | Top | 34-41 | Loss | -115 | 29 h 57 m | Show |
Georgia vs Alabama Currently priced as one-point favorites. It is doubtful Georgia will be priced as an underdog but if they are then grab the points instead of the money line. The following NCAAF betting algorithm has produced a 38-10 SU (79%) and a 30-18 ATS (63%) since 1980. The requirements are: It is game number four. Our team is coming off a BYE. Our team is favored or priced at pick-em. The opponent is coming off a win. Our team lost their last meeting with the current opponent. If our team is priced between the 3’s (3-point favorite to a 3-point underdog they improve to a 27-11 SU (71%) and a 27-9-2 ATS record goods for 75% winning bets since 1980. |
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09-28-24 | Illinois v. Penn State -17.5 | Top | 7-21 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 51 m | Show |
Illinois vs Penn State Two ranked conference rivals and the home team is favored by almost 20 points. So, the market is clearly telling us who the better team is and by nearly three TDs better. No. 19 Illinois travels to Happy Valley to take on No. 8 Penn State in a game set to start at 7:30 and white-out conditions. That’s not snow conditions, of course, but the 112,000 fans in attendance, who have been tailgating all day. It has been estimated that there are more people in the fields surrounding the Stadium than in the Stadium once the game starts. It is truly a remarkable venue to experience when it is a white-out or a stripe-out occasion. Penn State is coming off a BYE week and this is certainly great news for them as under head coach James Franklin they are 21-6 SU and ATS when the game is in the prime-time schedule. The clincher here is that when PSU has been favored in these situations, they have gone 18-0 SU and 15-3 ATS covering the spread by an average of 14 points per game. The following betting algorithm has gone 45-1 SU (98%) and 30-15-2 ATS for 67% winning bets. Bet conference favorites of 17.5 or more points. That favorite is ranked in the top-10 of the latest AP poll. The foe is ranked between 11 and 25 in the most recent AP poll. From the predictive model: My predictive models are expecting Penn State to score 31 or more points and hold Illinois to fewer than 300 offensive yards. In past home games under James Franklin, the Lions are 22-0 SU and 17-3-2 ATS for 85% winning bets when meeting or exceeding these performance measures. Illinois is 0-15 SU and 4-11 ATS when gaining less than 300 total yards in a road game and allowing 31 or more points. |
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09-28-24 | Navy v. UAB +3.5 | 41-18 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 17 m | Show | |
Navy at UAB The following NCAAF betting algorithm has produced a 35-14-3 ATS good for 71.4% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on home underdogs priced between 3.5 and 9.5 points. The underdog committed no more than one turnover in their previous game. The opponent has won the turnover battle in each of their last two games. If the foe has a winning record in the current seasons these home pups have gone 15-26 SU (37%) and 28-10-3 ATS (74%) winning bets over the last 10 seasons. If our dog is playing a ranked foe, they are a highly profitable 15-5 SU and 15-4-1 ATS good for 79% winning bets. |
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09-28-24 | Oklahoma State +6.5 v. Kansas State | Top | 20-42 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 34 m | Show |
Oklahoma State vs Kansas State The following NCAAF betting algorithm has produced a 38-31 SU (45%) and 45-24 ATS record good for 65% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on road underdogs priced between 2.5 and 6.5 points. The game is a conference matchup. The game occurs from week 5 to the end of the regular season. The road team is playing with revenge. The bettor consensus for this game is on K-State all week but when the line hit 5.5 last night and with the number of tickets bet at 72% and rising and the handle at 58% and dropping is one of many reasons I have added this game to the card. |
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09-27-24 | Virginia Tech v. Miami-FL -19 | Top | 34-38 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 57 m | Show |
V-Tech vs Miami (Fla) The following NCAA Football betting algorithm has gone 31-16 SU (66%) and 30-16-1 for 65% winning bets since 2010 or 15 seasons. Bet on undefeated teams from week 4 on out. They are averaging 4.8 or more rushing yards per attempt. They outgained their previous foe by 125 or more rushing yards. The opponent is averaging 4.3 to 4.8 rushing yards per attempt. The total is 55 or fewer points. If a conference matchup these teams have gone 24-10 SU and 23-11 ATS for 68% winning bets since 2010 and if our team is a double-digit favorite, they have gone 15-1 SU and 12-4 ATS for 75% winning bets. From the predictive model: My models are projecting that Miami will score 35 or more points and have the same or fewer turnovers as V-Tech. When they have met or exceeded these performance measures, they have gone 37-0 DSU and 32-5 ATS good for 87% winning bets spanning the past 10 seasons. |
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09-26-24 | Cowboys v. Giants +5.5 | Top | 20-15 | Win | 100 | 7 h 46 m | Show |
Cowboys vs Giants The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a 25-28 SU (47%) and a 37-16 ATS (70%) record over the past 15 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on home underdogs priced between 3.5 and 7.5 points. The game occurs from week 4 on out. The dog has allowed a 64% opponent completion percentage. The dog is coming off a strong defensive game allowing 5.5 PYPA If our dog is coming off a road win, they soar to 12-5 ATS record for 71% winning bets. From the predictive model: The projections are calling for the Giants to have the same or fewer turnovers and average 4,7 yards per rush attempt. In past games which the Giants have met or exceeded these performance measures has seen them go 9-6 SU and 13-1-1 ATS for 93% winning bets over the past five seasons. |
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09-23-24 | Commanders +7.5 v. Bengals | Top | 38-33 | Win | 100 | 6 h 46 m | Show |
Commanders vs Bengals Winless teams priced as a road underdog in week 3 action have gone 16-19 SU and 24-12 ATS for 67% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The following NFL betting algorithm has gone 22-34 SU (39%) and 34-19-3 ATS (64%) winning bets. Bet on underdogs priced between 4.5 and 8 points. Non divisional matchup. Game occurs in Week 3 through Week 5. The favorite is coming off a season where they lost 2 or more games than the previous season. The dog is coming off a season where they lost 2 or more games than the previous season. Betting consensus is on the Bengals accounting for 77% of tickets bet and is the most popular pick in the Circa Eliminator contest for the second time in three weeks. Their loss to the Patriots in week 1 (we were on the Patriots) eliminated 36% of the 12,800 entries. So, for many reasons, I do see this game being a lot closer than most believe possible. The following NFL betting algorithm has gone 46-44 SU (51%) and 57-30-3 ATS (66%) winning bets. Bet on road underdogs. That dog has posted a mediocre 15 or higher yards-per-point ratio. The game occurs in the first half of the season through week 9. The favorite is coming off a road loss and is on a one or more-game losing streak. From my predictive modelswe are looking for the Commanders to establish the run and gain 125 or more rushing yards and have the same or fewer turnovers. When they have met these performance measures in previousgames, they have gone 12-3-1 SU and 12-4 ATS for 75% winning bets. |
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09-23-24 | Jaguars +5.5 v. Bills | Top | 10-47 | Loss | -108 | 5 h 2 m | Show |
Jaguars vs Bills (Monday) Winless teams priced as a road underdog in week 3 action have gone 16-19 SU and 24-12 ATS for 67% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. Winless teams priced as 5.5 or greater underdogs are 11-22-1 SU but 22-12 ATS for 65% winning bets over the past 15 seasons. The following NFL betting algorithm has gone 22-34 SU (39%) and 34-19-3 ATS (64%) winning bets. Bet on road underdogs. Their QB is coming off a game with a 95 or lower QB rating. Their QB is coming off a game averaging between 4 and 7 yards per completion. Here is a second betting algorithm that has produced a 22-35 SU and 34-20-3 ATS for 63% winning bets over the past 25 seasons. Bet on road underdogs. Their QB is coming off a game averaging between 4 and 7 yards per completion and a QB rating of 95 or worse. The road team is coming off an upset loss as a home favorite. Here is the third sports betting algorithm targeting a bet on the Jaguars and has gone 20-17 SU and 23-12-2 ATS for 66% winning bets over the past five seasons. Bet on underdogs priced between 2.5 and 5.5 points. The dog is coming off an upset loss to a conference foe. The dog went Under their team points total. If our dog is on the road, they have gone 14-11 SU and 16-8-1 ATS for 67% winning bets. From my predictive modelswe are looking for the Jaguars to gain 5.25 or more yards per play and commit the same or fewer turnovers. In past road games in which the Jaguars met these performance measures has seen them produce a highly profitable 31-25 SU and 38-14-3 ATS record good for 74% winning bets. |
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09-22-24 | Dolphins +4 v. Seahawks | Top | 3-24 | Loss | -108 | 5 h 55 m | Show |
Dolphins vs Seahawks Bet on road underdogs. The game occurs in the first four weeks of the season. This dog is coming off a double-digit home loss. Dog had a –2 or worse turnover margin in their previous game. |
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09-22-24 | Eagles +3 v. Saints | Top | 15-12 | Win | 100 | 2 h 51 m | Show |
Philadelphia vs New Orleans Consider betting 5-Units on the Eagles preflop and then add the remaining three units if the Saints score first with a TD or a pair of FGs or they retake the lead at any point during the first half of action. Should the Eagles Play Without the Coaching Staff? For Eagles fans #FlyEaglesFly was crash and burn Eagles as the coaching staff clearly led them down the path to lose that Monday Night game against the Falcons. The dropped pass by Saquon Barkley inside of two-minutes was not the reason they lost the game, but rather going for it on fourth down inside the five-yard line in 3-0 game in the second quarter. Further, the decision to pass the ball to Barkley was the wrong call and better to have run the ball in that situation to keep the clock moving knowing the Falcons were out of timeouts. Now, the Eagles are facing one of the hottest teams and offenses in the Saints priced as 3.5-point underdogs. Reyling on Analytics Alone is a Sure-Fire way to Get Fired On the telecast it was noted that the analytics said to go for it on 4th down and four yards to go with the Eagles in the red zone. There is not one meaningful stat that would state that when the game is being played in the mud – meaning that points were scarce and hard-to-get. The analytics are flawed because they do not reflect the game flow. If the defenses could not stop the other’s offense, then yes, the analytics are more likely to say GO because field goals do little to increase a lead or diminish a deficit on the scoreboard. The following NFL betting algorithm has gone 35-33 SU (52%) and 42-20-6 ATS (68%) winning bets. Bet on road dogs priced between 2.5 and 6 points. The dog went Under their team total in the previous game. The dog is coming off an upset loss to a conference foe. From the predictive model we are expecting the Eagles to score 27 or more points and have the same or fewer turnovers as the Saints. In past road games over the past 5 seasons, the Eagles are 18-2 SU and 14-5-1 ATS for 74% winning bets when scoring 27 or more points and having the same or fewer turnovers. Here is a second algorithm that has produced an 11-8 SU record and a 14-5 ATS mark good for 74% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. Bet on underdogs from pick to 6.5 points in the first four weeks of the season. The opponent has won their last two games. The opponent was not in last season’s playoffs. So, I am certainly expecting a bounce-back effort today by the Eagles, especially on defense in defending the run and getting many QB pressures and hits today. The offense will take care of itself. |
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09-21-24 | Kansas State v. BYU +7 | Top | 9-38 | Win | 100 | 15 h 23 m | Show |
Kansas State vs BYU The following NCAA Football betting algorithm has produced a 16-26 SU record for 38% and a 26-14-2 ATS mark good for 65% winning bets over the past 5 seasons. Bet on home dogs between 3.5 and 9.5 points. The opponent had fewer turnovers than their opponent in each of their last two games. The hoe dog committed no more than a single turnover in their previous game. |
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09-21-24 | Tennessee -6.5 v. Oklahoma | Top | 25-15 | Win | 100 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
Tennessee vs Oklahoma The following NCAA Football betting algorithm has produced a 15-23 SU record for 40% and a 24-14 ATS mark good for 64% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. Bet on dogs priced between 3.5 and 9.5 points. The favorite is coming off a game in which they scored 60 or more points. The favorite held their previous opponent to 14 or fewer points. |
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09-21-24 | Arizona State +3.5 v. Texas Tech | Top | 22-30 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 23 m | Show |
Arizona State vs Texas Tech The following NCAA Football betting algorithm has produced a 16-26 SU record for 38% and a 26-14-2 ATS mark good for 65% winning bets over the past 5 seasons. The team is playing their second straight home game. They won the previous game against the current opponent. The opponent is playing their second straight road game. Our team is priced between a 4.5-point favorite and a 4.5-point dog. Louisiana Lafayette vs Tulane The best mascot in all of football, the Ragin’ Canjuns take on the Green Wave today at noon. They are backed by a stellar and highly profitable betting system that has gone 45-24 SU and 43-22-5 ATS for 67% winning bets over the past 20 seasons. Bet on any team scoring 34 or more PPG. They are priced between the 3’s. They allowed 17 or fewer points in each of their last two games. The foe is allowing between 21 and 28 PPG. |
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09-21-24 | Tulane v. UL-Lafayette +1.5 | Top | 41-33 | Loss | -109 | 5 h 52 m | Show |
Arizona State vs Texas Tech The following NCAA Football betting algorithm has produced a 16-26 SU record for 38% and a 26-14-2 ATS mark good for 65% winning bets over the past 5 seasons. The team is playing their second straight home game. They won the previous game against the current opponent. The opponent is playing their second straight road game. Our team is priced between a 4.5-point favorite and a 4.5-point dog. Louisiana Lafayette vs Tulane The best mascot in all of football, the Ragin’ Canjuns take on the Green Wave today at noon. They are backed by a stellar and highly profitable betting system that has gone 45-24 SU and 43-22-5 ATS for 67% winning bets over the past 20 seasons. Bet on any team scoring 34 or more PPG. They are priced between the 3’s. They allowed 17 or fewer points in each of their last two games. The foe is allowing between 21 and 28 PPG. |
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09-19-24 | Patriots +6.5 v. Jets | Top | 3-24 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 49 m | Show |
Patriots vs Jets Live Betting Strategy: Consider betting 70% of your 8-Unit amount preflop and then look to add 30% of that 8-Unit amount if the Jets score first or they retake the lead in the first half only. If the Patriots get out to a fast start there probably will not be an opportunity to get on the 30% remaining bet, but that also implies the Patriots are comfortably covering the spread. The Patriots offensive line is a mishmash of players given they have players OUT or listed as questionable across the line. So, by betting 70% preflop is a hedge against that offensive line just not getting it done. The market with the Patriots priced at 6 points and has dropped from 6.5 points despite the terrible injury reports regard their offensive line. Just like the price of Apple Computer reflects all expectations about their future earnings, the sports betting market reflects the expectations and news reports of both teams. The NFL Betting Algorithm The following NFL betting algorithm has produced an 74-86 record good for 54% SU winners and a 99-59-2 ATS mark good for 63% winning bets over the past 10 seasons and ALL 10 seasons have produced profits. The requirements are: The game occurs i the first four weeks of the season. Bet on road underdogs. The host had a losing record in the previous season. Simple to understand and straightforward results. Filtering this algorithm to reflect weeks 2 through 4 and the host having won less than 40% of their games in the previous season has produced a 19-13 SU mark (60%) and a 22-9-1 ATS record goof for 71% winning bets. |
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09-19-24 | South Alabama +7.5 v. Appalachian State | Top | 48-14 | Win | 100 | 6 h 6 m | Show |
South Alabama vs Appalachian State The predictive model sees South Alabama getting out to a fast start in this game so betting 4-Units on them +3.5 or 3-points for the first half and then 4-Unit on them +7 points for the full game is an alternative strategy to consider betting. Betting on underdogs between 2 and 6 points using the first half line that are outgaining their foes by 1.0 or more yards per play and are coming off a game in which they gained 475 or more yards have gone 42-14 ATS for 75% winning bets over the past five seasons. The College Football Betting Algorithm The following NCAAF betting algorithm has produced a 59-29 record and a 56-31 ATS mark good for 64.4% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on teams that are gaining 4.75 or more rushing yards per attempt. That team outgained their previous opponent by 125 or more rushing yards. The opponent is averaging 4.3 to 4.8 rushing yards per attempt. The team is coming off a game in which they scored 50 or more points. If our team is an underdog of any size, they have gone 8-14 SU but 16-6 ATS for 73% winning bets. The South Alabama Jaguars have a new coach in Major Applewhite, who had just four offensive and three defensive starters returning but he has the new starters playing quite well and why not he was their OC last year. Since joining the FBS in 2012 they stopped 10 consecutive losing seasons and had the second biggest bowl victory (59-10 over Eastern Michigan). |
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09-16-24 | Falcons +5.5 v. Eagles | Top | 22-21 | Win | 100 | 8 h 25 m | Show |
Falcons vs Eagles Live Betting Strategy: Consider betting In last week’s upset home loss to the the now 2-0 AFC Central division-leading Steelers (remember my recommendation to bet the Steelers to win the divisional title at 38:1?) they were able to put pressure on Cousins on 34% of the downs played. The Falcons defense managed to attain just 17.4% QB pressure on the Steeler signal caller. Check out the fourth betting algorithm below for more. Situational Trends and Angles: Dogs in Week 2 that are coming off a Week 1 loss priced as a favorite have gone 38-50 SU (43%) and 53-33-2 ATS good for 62% wining bets since 1989. In weeks 2 and 3, dogs in a non-divisional fray coming off a loss priced as a favorite and lost to the spread by double digits in their previous game have gone a solid 17-24 SU and 26-14-1 ATS for 65% winning bets since 1989. Every franchise knows that getting out of the gate with a 0-2 SU record means that they have an 11.5% chance of making it to the playoffs. Home favorites coming off a game at a neutral site are 8-6 SU and 5-9 ATS for 36% including a highly profitable 10-4 Over record for 71.4% winning bets. Home favorites coming off a game at a neutral site and were a playoff team in the previous season are just 6-5 SU and 3-8 ATS for 27% winners. Home favorite of 4.5 or more points coming off a neutral site game are 7-1 SU but just 1-7 ATS for 12% winning bets. The Monday Night NFL Betting Algorithm: This group of parameters has produced a 20-30 SU record and a 32-14-4 ATS mark good for 70% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. Bet on road dogs priced between 3.5 and 9.5 points. That dog is coming off a loss in which they committed three or more turnovers. That dog played Under their team total in that loss. The total is priced between 45 and 50 points. Here is a second NFL betting algorithm that has gone 21-34 SU (38%) and 33-19-3 ATS (64%) over the past 25 seasons. Bet on a road dog. That dog is coming off a poor game where their QB posted a 95 or lower quarterback rating. That dog is coming off an upset loss at home. In that loss their receivers achieved just four to seven yards after the catch. Here is a third NFL betting algorithm that has gone 16-22 SU and 25-13 ATS for 65.8% winning bets over the past 25 seasons. Bet on road dogs of 3.5 to 6.5 points. That road dog is coming off an upset home loss. That dog converted 20 to 30% of their third down opportunities. The game is a non-divisional matchup. Here is another NFL betting algorithm that has gone 15-14 SU and 18-10-1 for 65% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. Bet on road teams coming off an upset home loss. They had at least one turnover in that loss. The opponent in that loss had 15% or more QB pressures in that loss. If our road team had at least three turnovers in their previous upset home loss they have gone an amazing 6-5 SU and 10-1 ATS for 92% winning bets. |
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09-15-24 | Giants +1.5 v. Commanders | Top | 18-21 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 36 m | Show |
Giants vs Commanders In this situational betting angle specific to week 2 we learn that all dogs in week 2 that failed to cover the spread in week 1 and their current opponent failed to cover the spread in week 1 have gone 18-21 SU and 25-12-2 ATS for 68% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. Drilling deeper into the database we learn that if the dog’s margin to the spread in week 1 was the same as or worse than their opponent’s ats margin, our dogs have gone 13-9 SU and 19-2-1 ATS for a highly profitable 91% record. This situational betting algorithm has gone 49-55-1 SU, 64-34-7 ATS (65.3%) since 1989. Bet on road underdogs including pick-em and up to 5.5 points. The game is scheduled in the first three weeks of the regular season. This dog won six or fewer games in the previous season. The total is between 40 and 50 points. If these teams won between four and six games in the previous season. 37-37 SU (50%), 50-18-6 ATS (73.5%) winning bets since 1989; 14-4 SU (78%), 16-1-1 ATS (94%) winning bets since 2019. This NFL betting algorithm has produced a 37-33 SU and 45-21-4 ATS mark good for 68% winning bets since 1989. Bet on road dogs taking on a divisional foe. That host was outscored by four or more points-per-game in the previous season. The game occurs in the first four weeks of the season. The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a 25-18 SU and 27-13-3 ATS record good for 68% winning bets over the past 5 seasons. The game occurs in the first eight weeks of the season. Bet on road underdogs of three or fewer points including pick-em The favorite is on a 1 or more-game losing streak. From the Predictive Model: We learn that the Giants are 61-16 SU (79%) and 65-10-2 ATS when they have scored 21 or more points, recorded 10 passing first downs and had the same or fewer turnovers; 5-3 SU and 8-0 ATS over the past five seasons. |
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09-15-24 | Raiders +9 v. Ravens | Top | 26-23 | Win | 100 | 3 h 36 m | Show |
Raiders vs Ravens The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a 17-22 SU record and 25-12-2 ATS mark good for 68% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. In Week 2 action bet on the underdogs. Both teams failed to cover the spread in their previous game. If the opponent was a playoff team in the previous season our dogs have ripped off a highly profitable 7-8 SU record and an 11-3-1 ATS mark good for 79% winning bets pver the past 10 seasons. There has always been the discussion and misconception that west coast teams struggle when having to travel to play a game on the east coast with an early start time at 1;00 ET. There are three west coast travelers in Week 2 (Raiders, Seahawks, and Chargers). Since 1999, these west coast teams taking on an east coast host have gone 52-39 SU (57%) and 51-36-4 ATS (59%). Over the past five seasons they have produced a 40-23 SU (64%) record and 28-23-2 ATS (62.3%) and 5-8 SU and 9-4 ATS (69%) when priced as a dog of 4 or more points. The Ravens are the most popular pick in the Circa Eliminator contest with 2,304 picks of the remaining 8,694 entries or 26.4%. Last week we bet the Patriost as +9 point dogs adn they took down the Bengals, who were the most popular pick in the Eliminator and with the loss eliminated 34% of the 12,000 entries. Can it happen again? We will see. From the Predictive Model: We learn that the Raiders are 12-5 SU (71%) and 14-3 ATS when they have scored 20 or more points and had the same or fewer turnovers in road games over the past five seasons. |
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09-15-24 | Browns +3.5 v. Jaguars | Top | 18-13 | Win | 100 | 2 h 26 m | Show |
Browns vs Jaguars This NFL betting algorithm has produced a 26-39 SU and 44-20-1 ATS mark good for 69% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. This algorithm has posted one unprofitable season of the previous 10 in 2019 when it went 5-6 ATS. So, this is a great one to track and bet for many seasons to come. Bet on underdogs off a double-0digit home loss. The game occurs in the first four weeks of the season. |
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09-14-24 | Georgia -22 v. Kentucky | Top | 13-12 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 12 m | Show |
1 Georgia vs Kentucky 7:30 ET ABC/ESPN+ 8-Unit Bet on the Georgia Bulldogs minus 24 points. The following NCAA Football betting algorithm has gone 158-52 straight-up (SU) and 136-72-2 against the spread (ATS) for 65.4% winning bets over the past 15 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on road teams. The road team has allowed 17 or fewer points in each of their last two games. The opponent is coming off a 17 or more-point loss. If the game is a conference showdown and the road team is favored by double-digits they have gone on post a 72-6 SU and 53-25 ATS for 68% winning bets over the past 15 seasons and a highly profitable 44-4 SU and 36-12 ATS mark good for 75% winning bets over the past 10 seasons and not a single season that has not been profitable. I do not like laying this amount of chalk with any road team, but we are talking about the best team in the nation and the best program in college football for the past five seasons. Here is a second simple to understand betting algorithm that has gone 57-23 ATS for 71% winning bets and a highly profitable 40% ROI since 2020. The requirements are: The team has the same quarterback from the previous season. The opponent has a new quarterback this season. The team has allowed fewer than 200 yards in each of their last two games. The Predictive Model Projections: The predictive model is forecasting that Georgia will score 35 or more points, will have the same or fewer turnovers as Kentucky, and will rush the ball more times than they pass. In past games spanning the past five seasons, Georgia is 38-0 SU and 24-13-1 ATS for 65% winning bets when scoring 35 or more points; they are 18-0 SU and 16-2 ATS for 89% winning bets when scoring 35 or more points, posting more rushes than passes and having the same or fewer turnovers. |
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09-14-24 | Boston College v. Missouri -14.5 | Top | 21-27 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 7 m | Show |
Boston College vs Missouri Let’s start with the NCAAF betting algorithm that has produced a 180-40 SU and 126-88-6 ATS record for 59% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on home or neutral site favorites of three or more points. Both teams are ranked in the Top 25. The game is part of the regular season. If the guest has covered the spread by 25 or more points over their last two games (Exceeded market expectations significantly) our home favorite has gone 28-3 SU and 21-9-1 for 70% winning bets. Missouri head coach Eliah Drinkwitz has nine returning starters including his quarterback. Last season they played 11 teams that played in a bowl game, and they defeated 10 of those foes. Their offense has sputtered in the first two weeks but having a BC squad that has shocked two opponents will get their full attention. Keep an eye on WR Luther Burden III, who is fast becoming a first round draft pick and future NFL superstar. If there are any prop bets for him in today’s game the OVER with some pizza money is in order. The Predictive Model Projections: The predictive model is expecting Missouri to score 31 or more points and/or gain at least 1.1 or more yards per play than BC gains. In past games where Missouri met or exceeded this performance measure in home games has seen them go 21-0 SU and 16-5 ATS for 76% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. |
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09-14-24 | Oklahoma State v. Tulsa +18.5 | Top | 45-10 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 41 m | Show |
Oklahoma State vs Tulsa In each of the past 9 consecutive seasons I have had at least one underdog of 17.5 or more points win the game outright and in 2022 I had five of these massive dogs pull off the shocker. No one knows when these monumental upsets will occur. What i do know is that if you play these big barking pups each time and include a sprinkle on the money line you will add a significant amount of profits to your season-long bottom line. The following NCAA Football betting algorithm has gone 43-50 straight-up (SU) and 58-33-2 against the spread (ATS) for 64% winning bets over the past 20 seasons. The requirements are: Bet against any team coming off a win. That team allowed 600 or more total yards in that win. That team committed fewer turnovers than their previous opponent. If the game has a posted total of 50 or more points and that team above is favored by 11.5 or more points, fading then has produced a 18-7-1 ATS record for 72% winning bets. The Predictive Model Projections: The predictive model is forecasting that Tulsa will score 27 or more points and convert at least 40% of their third down attempts. In past games in which Tulsa met or exceeded these projections has led to a 5-5 SU record and a perfect 10-0 ATS record. |
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09-13-24 | Arizona +7 v. Kansas State | Top | 7-31 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 43 m | Show |
Arizona vs Kansas State Let’s start with the NCAAF betting algorithm that has produced a 44-76 SU and 70-47-3 ATS record for 60% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on road underdogs priced between 3.5 and 9.5 points. They had a winning record last season (bowl team). They are coming off a win priced as the favorite but failed to cover the spread. The game occurs in the first six weeks of the season. The second betting algorithm supporting Arizona has gone 40-23-2 ATS for 64% winning bets over the past 25 seasons and the requirements are: Bet on road dogs priced between pick-em and 9.5 points. They are coming off a win. In that win they failed to cover the spread by not even scoring enough points to exceed how much of a favorite they were in that game. They are facing an undefeated foe. So, Arizona was priced as a 43-point favorite and won the game 22-10. They failed toscore the betting line by 21 points, which is a quite rare result in college football. In fact, there have been just 6 games since 1996 that have seen a team win and failed by 21 points to equal their betting line. Moreover, teams that failed by 21 or more points to equal their betting line have gone 8-11 SU and 0-19 ATS in those games. Following these situations these teams have posted a 10-7 SU record and 10-7 ATS mark. The Predictive Model Projections: The predictive model is forecasting that Arizona will score 28 or more points and will gain 0.75 or more yards-per-play than K-State. In past games spanning the past five seasons, Arizona is 45-23 SU and 42-24-2 ATS fof64% winning bets when scoring 28 or more points; they are 22-7 SU and 19-10 ATS for 65.5% winning bets when they outgained their foes by 0.75 or more yards per play; 17-2 SU and 15-4 ATS for 79% winning bets when they have scored 28 or more points and outgained their foes by at least 0.75 yards per play. |
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09-12-24 | Bills +2.5 v. Dolphins | Top | 31-10 | Win | 100 | 10 h 2 m | Show |
Bills vs Dolphins Live Betting Strategy: Consider betting 6 units on the Bills preflop and then look to get the remaining 2-Units on the Bills if the Dolphins score first and it is a TD or they get out to a 6-0 lead or they retake the lead by any amount during the first half of action. Situational Analytics: The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a 27-19 straight-up (SU) and 31-14-1 against the spread (ATS) record good for 69% winning bets over the past 10 NFL seasons. The requirements are: Bet on underdogs from pick-em to 4.5 points. The game is a divisional showdown. The dog has defeated the opponent in each of their last two meetings. Our dog committed no more than a single turnover in their previous game. The opponent is coming off a game against a non-divisional foe. Now, if our dog was in the playoffs last season, they have gone 19-6 SU (76%) and 20-5 ATS for 80% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. In this situational betting angle specific to week 2 we learn that all dogs in week 2 that failed to cover the spread in week 1 and their current opponent failed to cover the spread in week 1 have gone 18-21 SU and 25-12-2 ATS for 68% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. Drilling deeper into the database we learn that if the dog’s margin to the spread in week 1 was the same as or worse than their opponent’s ats margin, our dogs have gone 13-9 SU and 19-2-1 ATS for a highly profitable 91% record. Here is a third situational betting algorithm that has gone 40-15-1 SU and 39-16-1 ATS for 71% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on any team facing a foe that trailed by double-digits at the half. The opponent did come back and win that home game. If our team has won 75% of more of their games, they have gone on to an impressive 19-0-1 SU record and a 17-2-1 ATS record good for 90% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. From the Predictive Models: My predictive models are projecting that the Bills will score 27 or more points and have the same or fewer turnovers or commit no more than a single turnover and have the edge in time of possession. In past games since 2019, the Bills are 22-3 SU and 20-5 ATS for 80% winning bets when they have met or exceeded these performance metrics. The fish are just 2-15 SU and ATS for just 7% winning bets when they have allowed these performance measures in games played over the past five years. |
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09-09-24 | Jets v. 49ers -4 | Top | 19-32 | Win | 100 | 4 h 10 m | Show |
NY Jets vs 49ers The 49ers are the Super Bowl losers and the trend to bet against them in Week 1 is outstanding, but all trends run their course and revert to the mean. However, my predictive models confirm that the market has clearly overreacted to this trend and now have the 49ers priced as modest favorites going up against a team that has been a perennial loser and has a 40-year QB that has not thrown a ball in over a year and was coming off the worst season of his career two seasons ago. There have been star names on defense that have left the 49ers, but they still have a great defense that can containalmost anything Aaron Rogers and the offense will throw at them tonight. The Jets have a great defense that is looking to be a Top 5 unit for the fifth consecutive season but one that the 49ers offense can overcome with Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel and Brandon Alyuk to name just a few of those offensive weapons. Former Kansas star center Dominick Puni will start for the 49ers as a rookie. He was the third-round draft pick (84th overall) and stands 6-5 and weighs in at 313 pounds and has a high football IQ. I think he has a significant edge in this matchup and will the OL play calls to keep his QB brock Purdy’s jersey as clean as possible tonight. From the Predictive Model: My predictive models are looking for a defensive battle but no graded play on the Under. It projects that the 49ers will score 24 or more points and have the same or fewer turnovers than their foes and convert a higher percentage of third downs. The 49ers have racked up a 46-1 SU and 38-7-2 ATS record when meeting or exceeding these performance measures over the past five seasons. |
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09-08-24 | Rams +4.5 v. Lions | Top | 20-26 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
Rams vs Lions The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a highly profitable 15-23 SU (40%) and 23-12-3 ATS (66%) winning bets since 1990. The requirements are: Bet on road underdogs in Week 1. They are facing a host that won two or more games in the previous season than their current wins total. From my predictive models: The models project that the Rams will score 24 or more points, have no more than one turnover, and/or have the edge in time-of possession. IN past games since 1990, the Rams are 91-8 SU (92%) and 86-11-3 ATS (89%) when they have met or exceeded all three of these performance measures; 22-2- SU and 22-0-2 ATS since 2019. |
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09-08-24 | Cowboys v. Browns -2.5 | Top | 33-17 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 20 m | Show |
Browns vs Cowboys Extremely sad news for the passing of Deshaun Watson’s father passing away and his status is uncertain. Family is always a top priority in our lives, and it brings to light what a luxury and privilege it is to have some entertainment and fun watching and betting on sporting events. Watson had spent much of his life estranged from his father, who left the family when he was young and left mother, Deann Watson, to raise him as well as three siblings. In 2017, Watson told the Houston Chronicle that he only remembered seeing his father "maybe five" times while growing up in Gainesville, Georgia. That is perhaps the saddest fact of all, but he still remembered him with a short message from Watson “Rest in Piece Pops”. There are quite a few situations angles and betting algorithms that are working against the Cowboys in this game. The Cowboys were the top scoring offense last season, scoring 30.2 PPG but that has not translated well into the following season. I fact, teams that averaged 30 or more PPG in the previous season are just 23-9 SU and 11-18-3 ATS for 38% in Week 1 action since 1992. If these teams are facing a playoff team from the previous season, they are a miserable 3-7 SUATS for 30% winning bets. The Cowboys were 8-1 SU and 6-3 ATS in home games last season; they also led the NFl with a very efficient 12.07 yards per point ratio. Only the Eagles were better in-home games posting a 11.41 YPPT ratio with the Cowboys posting an exceptionally strong 11.49 YPPT ratio. Betting on home teams that are priced as favorites in Week 1 and facing a foe that won 9 or more games in the previous season have gone 43-114 SU and 59-89-9 ATS for 40% winning bets over the past 20 seasons. If the host was in the playoffs last season, they have gone 40-16 SU and 34-19-3 ATS for 64% winning bets in fading these types of road teams. From my predictive models: My predictive models are looking for the Browns’ defense to play as one of the best defensive units in the NFL. The Cowboys are projected to score fewer than 24 points and the Browns to have the ball (Time of Possession) more than the Cowboys. In road games, the Cowboys are just 3-12 SU (20% and 3-12 ATS (20%) when they have scored 24 or fewer points and had the ball for less than 30 minutes in games played over the past five seasons. The Browns are 24-2 SU (92%) and 17-8-1 ATS for (68%) when allowing 24 or fewer points and have the ball for more than 30 minutes in games played over the past five seasons. |
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09-08-24 | Commanders +4 v. Bucs | Top | 20-37 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 20 m | Show |
Commanders vs Bucs I am fully aware that we have a quarterback making his NFL debut and that the history of first timers has not been good. However, Daniels is ready for this moment and this season, and the Commanders defense is quite good and is able tp keep them in all games this season. Moreover, Daniels and the Commanders’ offense are facing a tea with slim hopes and expectations of becoming a playoff team and sets the stage for them to get the win. The Bucs posted the second worst defensive yards-per-point ratio in the league last year and that too will make it an easier task for Daniels to move the chains and sustain drives. The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a highly profitable 37-37 SU (50%) and 50-18-6 ATS (74%) winning bets since 1990. The requirements are: Bet on road underdogs of 5.5 or fewer points in the first three weeks of the season. The total is priced between 40 and 50 points. The dog won between 4 and 6 games in the previous season. From my predictive models: The models project that the Bucs will not score more than 24 points, and the Commanders will have more red zone opportunities. The Commanders are 80-23 SU (78%) and 77-23-3 ATS (77%) since 1990 when meeting or exceeding these performance measures and 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS over the past five seasons. |
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09-08-24 | Patriots +8 v. Bengals | Top | 16-10 | Win | 100 | 4 h 56 m | Show |
Patriots vs Bengals This is the game that has had the most media attention focused on it especially in the Circa Survivor and Millions contests. The theme has been that the line is a gift from the books with the Bengals the far superior team and the Patriots expected to be one of the worst in the NFL. Why then, are the Patriots priced only as a 7.5-underdog? The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a remarkable 16-14 SU and 21-9 ATS for 70% winning bets since 2000. The requirements are: Bet on road underdogs. The game occurs within the first four weeks of the season. The home team is facing the defending super bowl champion in their next game. If the game occurs in the first two weeks of the season, these road teams have gone 9-6 SU and 12-3 ATS for 80% winning bets since 2002. Look out Circa Survivor entries as an extremely large number of entries and the most popular choice in the contest is the Bengals. The last five years of the contest as seen stunning carnage in the first few weeks and especially week 1 of the season with large favorites failing to come through with a win. There are 4,895 entries in the survivor pool on the Bengals out of a total of 14,206 $1,000 entries. That represents 34% of the pool either advances with a Bengals win or exits with a shocking Bengals loss. Thia is not the reason why we are on the Patriots, but it is a keep piece of near-irrational exuberance by the public herd and that is always a contrarian opportunity. From my predictive models: My predictive models are looking for the Patriots defense to play well and contain the Bengals to 24 or fewer points and have no more than one turnover or have the same or fewer turnovers as the Bengals. To be fair this is a new edition fo the Patriots with a new coaching staff and several younger players on the roster starting with QB Drake May, who may become the starter. However, the Bengals are 28-81 SU (26%) and 25-80-4 ATS (24%) in home games in which they scored 24 or fewer points and the opponent committed no more than one turnover in games played since 1989 and 3-16 SU (16%) and 3-13-3 ATS (19%) over the past five seasons. |
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09-08-24 | Panthers +4 v. Saints | Top | 10-47 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 55 m | Show |
Panthers vs Saints The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a highly profitable 50-18-6 ATS (74%) winning bets since 1990. The requirements are: Bet on underdogs of 6.5 or fewer points in the first four weeks of the season. The favorite won their last two games of the previous season The favorite failed to make the playoffs. The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a highly profitable 22-36 SU (38%) and a 38-20 ATS (65%) winning bets since 1990. The requirements are: Bet on teams that won two or more games in the previous season than the season before that one. The opponent had won two or more games two seasons ago than last season. It is week 1 of the season. The opponent had a winning record last season. Our team had a losing record in the previous season. |
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09-08-24 | Steelers +4 v. Falcons | Top | 18-10 | Win | 100 | 4 h 54 m | Show |
Steelers vs Falcons The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a highly profitable 15-23 SU (40%) and 23-12-3 ATS (66%) winning bets since 1990. The requirements are: Bet on underdogs that have defeated the current opponent in each of the last two meetings. The opponent won two or fewer of their lasty five games in the previous season. The dog won three or more of their last five games of the previous season. The total is 46 or fewer points. The occurs in the first 8 weeks of the season. |
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09-07-24 | Texas Tech +1 v. Washington State | Top | 16-37 | Loss | -108 | 15 h 1 m | Show |
Texas Tech vs Washington State The Red Raiders are coming off a big-time scare as they needed overtime to defeat Abeline Christian 52-51 priced as a whopping 31.5-point favorite. That has been a very rare situation, but if you have been a log-time subscriber you already know I have had at least one underdog of 17.5 points that has won straight-up. Of course, I never know when those monster upsets will occur, but it is always rewarding when we nail one of them. I think there has been an overreaction to the the near historic loss that Texas Tech overcame last week. That type of game will get their attention, and you can bet the coaching staff has been in their players’ faces all week. This Situational CFB Betting Algorithm has gone 8-7 SU and 10-5 ATS and is as rare as the outcome of last week’s game. Bet on road underdogs. The dog is coming off a home win. They won the game by four or fewer points priced as a –24 or more-point favorite. They are taking on a non-conference foe. If the game occurs in week 2 these road teams have bounced back with a 4-5 SU and 7-2 ATDS mark good for 78% winning bets. My predictive model projects that TT will score at least 30 points and in past games since 2019 they are 24-10 SU and 26-8 ATS for 77% winning bets. WSU is just 3-18 SU and 5-16 ATS for 24% winning bets when they have allowed 31 or more points in games played over the past 5 seasons. |
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09-07-24 | East Carolina v. Old Dominion -1 | Top | 20-14 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
East Carolina vs Old Dominion The following NCAA Football betting algorithm has produced a 22-4 SU and 17-9 ATS (65.4%) record since 1999. The requirements are: The game is played in Week 2. The team played in a bowl game in the previous season. The team is coming off a loss in Week 1 and is favored now. The team lost the previous game tp the current opponent. |
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09-07-24 | Marshall v. Virginia Tech -19.5 | Top | 14-31 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
Marshall vs Virginia Tech The following NCAA Football betting algorithm has produced a 22-4 SU and 17-9 ATS (65.4%) record since 1999. The requirements are: The game is played in Week 2. The team played in a bowl game in the previous season. The team is coming off a loss in Week 1 and is favored now. The team lost the previous game tp the current opponent. |
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09-06-24 | Packers v. Eagles -2 | Top | 29-34 | Win | 100 | 9 h 40 m | Show |
Green Bay vs Philadelphia The Eagles are looking to bounce back from an ugly second half of last season after starting out with the League’s best record at 10-1. Their next game is in Week 2 at home against the Atlanta Falcons and will be televised on MNF and are priced as a 3.5-point home favorite. This game is in Brazil and is a historic first time ever that an NFL game has been played in South America. Still. It is not like these teams traveling to London and bringing their families along because the crime rate is so high that both teams have been ordered to remain in their hotels for fear of being mugged and robbed. The Eagles are 19-6 SU and 15-9-1 ATS for 63% winning bets when favored in games against a non-divisional foe and their next game is on MNF. Live Betting Strategy: First, if you like the Eagles in Week 2 you may want to bet a few units on them now in case the Eagles win this game convincingly and the Falcons lose as 3.5-point home favorites to the Steelers. In this game with the total at 49.5 points implies that there will be more scoring volatility and lead changes than games priced at 40 or fewer points, for instance. So, I like making a 6-Unit bet preflop on the Eagles at –2 (maybe –1.5 later today) and then look to add the remaining 2-Units on the Eagles using the money line if the Packers score the first TD of the game or retake the lead during the first half of action. The NFL Situational Betting Algorithm The following NFL betting system has produced a 115-43 SU and 95-59-4 ATS record good for 62% winning bets since 1990. The requirements are: Bet on favorites in Week 1. The underdog won 8 or more games in the previous season. If favored by 1.5 or more points these teams have gone to an impressive 110-35 SU and 93-51-1 ATS record good for 65% winning bets. From the Predictive Models: My predictive models project that the Eagles will score 27 or more points and have the same or fewer turnovers. In past games over the past 3 seasons in which the Eagles met these performance measures has seen them go 18-2 SU and 14-5-1 ATS (74%). When Green Bay allowed these performance measures has seen them go 3-8 SU and just 1-10 ATS for 10% winners. |
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09-05-24 | Ravens v. Chiefs -3 | Top | 20-27 | Win | 104 | 9 h 11 m | Show |
Ravens vs Chiefs Optional Pizza Money Prop Bets: Live Betting Strategy: Consider betting 70% of your 8-Unit betting amount preflop and then bet the Chiefs with the remaining 30% amount if the Ravens score first (3 or more points) or the Ravens retake the lead at any point during the first of action. During the 2023 regular season, the Chiefs scored a total of 64 points in the first quarter, but then scored 155 points in the second quarter. The Ravens defense allowed 40 points in the first quarter and 72 in the second quarter. So, do not be surprised at all if the Ravens have a lead at some point during the first half of action but exploit that situation as detailed above. The NFL Situational Betting Algorithm: The following situational system has gone 17-5 SU (77%) and 13-7-1 ATS (65%) since 2002. The requirements are: Bet on the defending Super Bowl champion in Week 1 ThatChampion is playing at home. If they are at home and facing a conference foe, they have gone 15-2 SU (88%) and 11-5-1 ATS (69%) since 2002. Moreover, Patrick Mahomes is 4-1 when facing Lamar Jackson. From the Predictive Models:My predictive models are expecting the Ravens to score fewer than 24 points and have a lower and more efficient yards-per-point ratio. In past home games where the Chiefs met these projections they have gone on to a 26-1 SU (96%) and 20-6-1 ATS (77%) record over the past five seasons. Patrick Mahomes is 17-1 SU and 12-5-1 ATS (71%) when he has completed 25 or more passes and passed for 300 or more yards his career when the Chiefs have been priced as a 6 or fewer-point favorite. |
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08-31-24 | Wyoming +6.5 v. Arizona State | Top | 7-48 | Loss | -110 | 82 h 19 m | Show |
Wyoming vs Arizona State The following NCAAF betting algorithm has produced a 92-49-2 ATS record good for 65% winning bets over the past 20 seasons. The requirements are: The game is played in the regular season. The difference between the money bet (handle) and the percentage of tickets is between 11 and 65%. The line movement from opening to closing price is between –0.5 and –9.5 points. The team is the visitor. The spread percentage is between 24 and 40%. So, we have a situation in the markets where the percentage of money bet less the percentage of tickets bet shows that the handle percentage is 11 to 65% more than the tickets percentage. The difference from opening to closing price has worked against the team we are betting on. Currently the line has moved only a half point from +7 to +6.5 points and only 33% of the tickets but 62% of the money is on the Cowboys. |
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08-31-24 | Clemson v. Georgia -11.5 | Top | 3-34 | Win | 100 | 23 h 58 m | Show |
No. 14 Clemson vs No. 1 Georgia 3-Unit Pizza-Money bet Under Clemson’s team total Consider betting 70% of your 10-Unit bet on Georgia preflop and then look to add 15% on Georgia at –10.5 points and 15% more on Georgia at –7.5 points. I have learned and profited from this week 1 matchups involving two ranked teams over the years and now this one looks quite string. Remember to bet with your head and not over it. These 10-Unit 5% Max Bets have lost 33% ATS of the time over the past five football seasons. No one knows if the bet is going to win on any given day – confident bets are different than being Nostradamus – but I rely on the fact that they have hit at great winning percentages over 5+ seasons and that by the end of the season we have reason to believe that significant profits will be made again. In week 1 of the regular season and with both teams playing their first game, both are ranked in the AP preseason poll and the difference between these ranks is between 1 and 19, the higher ranked team has gone 28-19 ATS for 60% winners. So, Georgia is ranked #1 and Clemson #14 for a difference of 13. In week 1 and 2 matchups of ranked teams, the favorites priced between –3 and –17.5 points that are playing at home or on a neutral field have gone 37-22-1 ATS for 63% winning bets over the past 20 seasons; in Week 1 action they have gone 24-12 ATS for 67% winning bets. From the Predictive Model We are expecting Georgia to score 28 or more points and have the same or fewer turnovers than Clemson. In past games played at home or on a neutral field Georgia is 25-0 SU and 19-5-1 ATS when they have scored 28 or more points and had the same or fewer turnovers spanning the past three seasons. Since the arrival of Kirby Smart, Georgia is 52-2 SU and 38-15-1 ATS for 72% winning bets since 2016 when scoring 28 or more points and having the same or fewer turnovers. Clemson is an anemic 1-6 and 0-7 ATS in games played on the road or a neutral field where they allowed 28 or more points and had the same of more turnovers than the foe spanning the past three seasons. Under Dabo Swinney, the Tigers are just 14-24 SU and 9-29 ATS for 24% winners when allowing 28 or more points and having the same or more turnovers since 2008. The predictive model grades this a 10-Unit 5% Max bet with an 84% probability that the performance measures identified above will occur in the game. Coach Smart is in his ninth season and is 94-16 SU and 70-43 ATS and this has been accomplished in the SEC Conference. In a somewhat rare situation, he returns 7 starters on both offense and defense and had the top-ranked recruiting class. This is rare because over the last two seasons, he has sent 25 players to the NFL. However, this season he has his returning starting quarterback Carson Beck, who is coming off a 13-1 campaign and a Archie Maning award finalist. He led the Bulldogs to a 5-1 SUATS record when facing Top-25 opponents. Since Smart’s arrival, Georgia has gone 28-10 and 27-11 ATS for 71% winning bets when facing a ranked foe either at home or on a neutral field. |
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02-11-24 | 49ers -2 v. Chiefs | Top | 22-25 | Loss | -105 | 54 h 22 m | Show |
San Francisco 49ers vs Kansas City Chiefs 6:30 ET | Allegiant Stadium, Paradise, NV 10-Unit Bet on the 49ers minus 2 points and if the money line is less than -130 (As in -125) use the money line. 5-Unit Bet Under 47.5 points. I cannot prevent you from placing a parlay on these opportunities but would recommend not to as there are plenty of prop bets that add more than enough risk to our Super Bowl portfolio of bets. If you force me (LOL), I would prefer the teaser (Ouch, I cannot even believe I am writing that) where you tease down the 49ers and the tease up the total. Live Betting Strategy For Live betting consider betting 70% preflop on the 49ers as prescribed above and then look to get 15% more at +1.5 and 15% more at +4.5 points during the first half of action. Of course, you can bet say 80% preflop and then add 10% more at each of these levels and is dependent on how much you like the 49ers to win the game. As for the Over bet I like betting 2.5 units preflop. If the game starts out terribly slowly on the scoreboard and the total drops to 39.5 points, I plan to BUY BACK that 2.5 units and play the middle between 39.5 and 47.5 points. The other strategy is to bet 2.5 units UNDER preflop and then look to add 1.5 units at 50.5 points and 1 more unit at 53.5 points. Over the past five seasons, the 49ers and the Chiefs lead the NFL tied with 32 games in which they and their opponents enjoyed a 6 or more-point lead. The Chiefs had 3 games and the 49ers four games this season in which they and their foes enjoyed 6 or more-point leads. So, expect multiple lead changes and use the live game betting strategy detailed above if you agree with me. A Disclaimer I am a documented 22-5 ATS in the Super Bowls and that record is not a guarantee that this 10-Unit bet will win this year. My goal is always to see you bet with discipline and the reality that in a one game situation anything can happen. No one has a crystal ball. I do have massive databases and predictive models using machine learning and gaussian probability tools that have done extremely well over the course of a season and a calendar year. My 10-Unit MAX Bets have LOST 32% of the time on a 78-38 record across all sports and more than 4+ years of betting action. Make no mistake, I like the 49ers quite a bit, but it is another individual bet and will not have any impact to my season-to-date profits or my 2024 year-end profits. A Highly Profitable NFL Betting AlgorithmThe following NFL betting algorithm has earned a highly profitable 33-16 SU record and 33-14-2 ATS mark good for 70% winning bets over the past 10 regular and playoff seasons. The requirements are: · Bet on any team lined between the 3’s. · That team is on a three or more-game ASTS losing streak. · The opponent is on a 2 or more-game ATS win streak. Note, in the playoffs going back to 2003, the Under is 12-3 for 80% winning bets in a matchup where one of the teams is on a 3-game ATS losing streak and the opponent is on a 2 or more-game ATS win streak. The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a 44-14 Under record good for 76% winning bets since 1989. The requirements are: · Bet the under in game where the total us priced between 42.5 and 49 points. · One of the teams (49ers) is coming off a home game in which they won the game priced as the favorite but did not cover the spread. · That team is facing a foe that is coming off an upset road win. If the game occurs in the playoffs, the Under has gone a near-perfect 6-1 Under for 86% winning bets. The Predictive Model Projections The market at current pricing of 47.5 point total and the 49ers favored by 1.5 points reflects a 24.5-23 49ers win. In the NFL ranks, the 27-point scoring level is a significant pivot for many of the elite teams. For instance, over the past five seasons, the Dolphins own the best record when scoring 27 or more points producing a 24-7 SU and 26-3-2 ATS mark for 90% winning bets. Over the same period, the 49ers have gone 44-3 SU and 35-10-2 ATS and the Chiefs have gone 49-4 SU and 34-18-1 ATS for 65% winning bets when scoring 27 or more points. The Chiefs ATS win percentage is second-lowest to only the Minnesota Vikings, who are 32-10 SU and 26-15-1 ASTS for 63% winning bets. The predictive models are calling for the 49ers to score 27 or more points and will gain more total yards and average at least 6.25 yards per play. In past games spanning the past five seasons, the 49ers are 20-0 SU and 17-2-1 ATS for 90% winning bets. The Chiefs are 4-5 SU and 1-8 ATS when they have allowed 27 or more points, gained fewer total yards and allowed 6.25 or more yards per play. Teams that have produced a 14 or lower (better and more efficient) offensive yards per point ratio has gone 15-4 SU and 13-6 ATS for 68% winning bets in the Super Bowl. The forecast is for the 49ers to produce a 13 or lower YPPT ratio. In the super bowl teams that have scored 27 or more points and had the same or fewer turnovers have gone on to a 12-3 SU and 11-4 ASTS record good for 73% winning bets. My expectations are that the 49ers wrinkle in this game and one that will not be surprising to the Chiefs defense is that they will start the game in a spread formation and not the ‘22’ formation. The ‘22’ is a formation where only one WR is set away from the line of scrimmage and with a pair of TE and RB packed in close to the ball. The reason is simply that Purdy will be able to see where the blitz pressure is coming from far easier than in a packed-in-the phone booth ‘22’ set. Eventually, I believe the Chiefs will have to commit one of their two safeties to support the run defense. When you see this happen during the game you can then expect play action and throw to a WR in man coverage and executing a vertical post or crossing route. The Pizza Money Prop Bets First and foremost, when betting the 49ers be careful not to add too many 49er player props. The mistake most people make is to add player props on the team they bet because they believe those prop bets will win too. One case in point is the 2007 Super Bowl when the Patriots came into the Super Bowl priced as 12.5 point favorites and lost to the Giants 17-14 priced as 12.5-point favorites. If you had bet the Patriot they obviously lost and if you added a plethora of plater props on aardy and company the majority of those would have lost too resulting in a significant financial loss. So, bet with your head and never over it and may all the wins be yours. Prop Bets 1. McCaffrey Over 100 rushing yards +128 Currently at Bet ESPN, the odds for Christian McCaffery to rush for over 100 yards is +128. Note, that when McCaffrey has gained 110 or more yards nd his team has been favored by less than 10 points has seen that team (Panthers and 49ers) go 9-1 SI and 7-3 ATS for 70%. You can also bet any amount of yards that MaCaffrey will get with 90 yards having equal vig for the Under and Over bets. 2. Brock Purdy Over 12.5 rushing yards. This bet is almost akin to a hedge on our 49ers bet that if this bet wins it also could mean that Purdy is scrambling more than expected and that the Chiefs defense is not allowing an separation from the 49ers WRs. 3. Kyle Juszczyk Over 3.5 receiving yards 4. Travis Kelce Under 6.5 receptions (sorry Taylor LOL) 5. Rashee Rice Over 66.5 receiving yards Rice is the x-factor in this game and I think you will see the 49ers corner Ward mirroring him all over the field. This is a matchup (game within the game) situation that could determine the winner of the Super Bowl. For instance if Rice scores 2 TDs and has over 150 receiving yards the Chiefs more than likely win this game. 6. Elijah Mitchell Over 1.5 rushing attempts The Chiefs ranked 27th in defensive rush DVOA this season and will be without Charles Omenihu. Mitchell had at least 2 rushing attempts in the 11 games he suited up for and the 49ers will be looking to pound the ball between the tackles and force the Chiefs to bring up a safety. 7. Kyle Juszcyk +2400 to catch the 49ers first reception This bet is based on the first play the 49ers run from scrimmage is not a which player makes the first catch of the Super Bowl. So, even if the 49ers defer the coin toss and get the second possession of the game, this bet will be active on that first 49ers offensive play. In the last two games, Juszcyk has been targeted on the second play of the 49ers first drive. So, Shanahan has a solid history of mixing up his offensive tendencies in big games. The top-4 49ers are all priced exceptionally low and offer not much value to make that first catch, but Juszcyk is a monster value. $10 here and a winner buys a lot of pizzas. 8. Highest Scoring Quarter will be the 2nd at +170 Since the 2001 Super Bowl, the highest scoring quarter has been the fourth averaging 15.5 PPG. The second quarter has seen an average of 14.9 PPG. The third has averaged 11 PPG, and the first quarter has averaged 7 PPG. The Chiefs went scoreless in 7 fourth quarters this season, scored 3 or fewer points in the 4th in 13 games, and in four games they did not score in the second half. Just last week in their winner over the Ravens they failed to score in the second half. So, that takes out the 4th quarter as a potential bet. It has been mentioned far too often in the past two weeks or so that Shanahan is pathetic in comeback situations sporting a 1-35 SU record when trailing by 5 or more points entering the fourth quarter. The truth is all head coaches in the NFL that have been around for any stretch of time have posted horrid records in this trailing situation. Andy Reid struggled to close out games with a lead and earn the win while the head coach of Philadelphia. Since 2019, he has become one of the greatest closers ion the history of the game going 41-1 SU and 35-6-1 ATS for 85% winning tickets when leading by 5 or more points through three quarters of action. Most Games When Trailing By 5+ Points Entering the Fourth Quarter 1. Bill Belichick 19-102 SU | 11-107-3 ATS (9.3%) 2. Jeff Fisher 12-108 SU | 16-101-3 ATS (14%) 3. Tom Coughlin 15-94 SU | 17-87-5 ATS (16%) 4. Andy Reid 20-80 SU | 18-81-1 ATS (18%) 5. John Fox 11-83 SU | 15-77-2 ATS (16%) Lowest Win Percentages When Trailing by 5+ Points Entering the Fourth Quarter 1. Gruden 0-34 SU | 2-32 ATS (6%) 2. Spagnuolo 0-29 SU | 4-24-1 ATS (14%) 3. Mangini 0-29 SU | 5-24 ATS (17%) 4. Hue Jackson 0-28-1 | 5-24 ATS (17%) 5. Sparano 0-28 SU | 4-24 ATS (14%) Most Games When Leading By 5+ Points Entering the Fourth Quarter 1. Belichick 234-16 SU | 212-30-8 ATS (88%) 2. Reid 183-21 SU |162-40-2 ATS (80%) 3. Coughlin 115-14 SU | 106-21-2 ATS (84%) 4. Shanahan 112-16 SU 95-31-2 ATS (75%) 5. John Harbaugh 110-17 SU | 94-31-2 ATS (75%) |
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01-28-24 | Lions v. 49ers -7 | Top | 31-34 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
Detroit Lions vs San Francisco 49ers 8-Unit bet on the 49ers minus the 7 points and is valid up 7.5 points. Consider betting 75% of your 8-unit bet preflop and then look to add the remaining 25% on two parts consisting of 15% on the 49ers -4.5 points and 10% more at -1.5 points during the first half of action. Home teams in the conference championship that failed to cover the spread in their divisional win and had fewer than 30 minutes of time of possession are 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS. The only loss was when the team was on the road. The Green Bay packers traveled to Seattle to take on the Seahawks as 8.5-point underdogs and enjoyed a 16-point half time lead. How, the Seahawks stormed back with 22 second-half points (15 of them scored in the fourth quarter) and won 28-22. So, home teams in this role are undefeated and in any round of the playoffs have gone 17-12-1 ATS for 59% and Supporting this bet on the 49ers is the following algorithm that has gone 25-13 (66%) SU and 25-12-1 ATS for 68% winning bets since 2004. The requirements are: · Bet on home favorites in the playoffs. · Facing an opponent that won 5 or more games, but were outgained in the stats. · That opponent is coming off a home win. If in the Conference Championship Game Ø 11-3 SU | 12-2 86% ATS | 8-6 O-U |
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01-28-24 | Chiefs +4.5 v. Ravens | Top | 17-10 | Win | 100 | 6 h 12 m | Show |
Kansas City Chiefs vs Baltimore Ravens 10-Unit bet on the Chiefs plus 3 or more points. Consider betting 60% of your 8-unit bet preflop and then look to add the remaining 20% on the Chiefs at +6.5 and then 20% more at +9.5 points during the first half of action. 5-Unit Bet OVER 44.5 points. Consider betting just 40% preflop on the total because the first quarter scoring in these Championship games sees the least amount of points scored. Then if the game does go accoding to plan, you will be able to add 30% more at 41.5 points and 30% more at 39.5 points at some point during the first half of action. The downside is that if the game starts out fast, you are likely to only have 40% bet on the Over preflop, but that also implies that bet will be winning by margin at the half. CBS Sports noted that Kyle Shanahan of the 49ers was 0-31 SU when trailing by five or more points entering the fourth quarter and last week’s comeback against the Packer’s was the first time he and the 49ers overcame that type of deficit to win a game. However, this type of stat is a bit misleading starting with the fact that all NFL coaches and their teams have had few wins when trailing by 5 or more points entering the fourth. In 49ers history Mike Nolan went 0-27 and Dennis Erickson went 0-27, for instance. Bill Belichick went 19-102, Jeff Fisher went 12-108, Tom Coughlin went 15-94, and Andy Reid went 20-80 to round out the top-4 coaches records with 100 or more trailing by 5+ entering the fourth quarter. Speaking of Reid, he is tops on the coaching list with 20 come from behind fourth quarter wins trailing by 5+ points. In case you were wondering Jay Gruden went 0-34 for his career when trailing by 5+ points entering the fourth quarter. In week 16 on Monday Night Football, the Chiefs were priced as 11.5-point favorites and trailed by 20-7 entering the fourth and lost 20-14 to the AFC West Division rival Raiders. Ten of the 20 wins in this situation for coach Reid have occurred with the Chiefs and prior to that with the Eagles. With the Chiefs he is 7-3 ATS in those 10 games, so keep that in mind too if they are trailing entering the fourth. Since 2019, the Chiefs have played in a league-high 32 games in which they and their opponents enjoyed 6 or more-point leads at some point during these games. What is remarkable is Reid has won 26 of these 32 games and went 17-9 ATS and 18-8 OVER. So, I do see many lead changes in this AFC Championship game against the Ravens. Supporting this bet on the Chiefs is the following algorithm that has gone 31-39 SU and 49-21-3 ATS for 70% winning bets since 2014. The requirements are: · Bet on road underdogs between 3.5 and 9.5 points. · Our dog has committed no more than one turnover in each of their last two games. · The host forced zero turnovers in their previous game. if the game occurs in the playoffs our dogs have gone 4-5 SU and 7-2 ATS for 78% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. Although just two games, these dogs have gone 1-1 and 2-0 ATS in the Conference Championship. Player Prop bets for Both games today: 1) Bet Mahomes OVER 1.5 passing TDs -110 2) Bet Mahomes OVER 25.5 completions +115 3) Bet Kelce OVER 63.5 receiving yards -110 4) Bet Pacheco OVER 15.5 longest rush -105 5) Bet Pacheco Over 63.5 rushing yards -115 6) Bet Goff OVER 2.5 passing TDs +300 7) Bet George Kittle most receiving yards +550 Analysts will say that Kyle Hamilton will take away Kelce. Maybe. The fact that TEs have done well against this defense bodes well for Kelce. He’s had 71+ yards in each playoff game. The Chiefs will need him if they want to have a chance to score 20+ points. |
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01-21-24 | Bucs +6.5 v. Lions | Top | 23-31 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 45 m | Show |
Tampa Bay vs Detroit 3:00 PM EST | NBC 10-Unit Bet on the Tampa Bay Bucs +6 points and is valid to 4.5 points although a drop in the line at this point would be rare. Please remember to bet with your heads and ne er over it on every bet I provide, especially these 10-UNIT max bets which have hit 68% on a 76-35 record across all sports and over 4 years of betting action. This also means they LOSE 32% of the time abd to be completely honest, there is no way I nor anyone else knows with any degree of certainty that this play will win this afternoon. So, a reminder that is a marathon and that I have proven for many years that profits are achieved not in one day or one week or even a month, but over 12 months or a full season.
Let’s look at some of the betting systems supporting the pick from the predictive models. Betting on underdogs between 3.5 and 10 points that committed no more than one turnover in each of their last two games and facing a foe coming off a game without recording a forced turnover has gone 41-57 SU (42%) and 65-33 ATS for 66% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. Making this system even better is that it has had NO seasons in which it lost money and if the game has taken place in any round of the playoffs it has recorded an insanely great 4-4 SU and 7-1 ATS record for 88% winning bets. If you have watched any my show appearances on ESPN Syracuse, SportsMap Radio, and Rotowire, you already know who important the metric called yards per points is to my predictive models. So, in the divisional round, road teams that have posted a defensive yards per point ratio of 20 or more over their last three games have gone 10-13 SU, but a healthy and profitable 15-8 ATS for 65% winning bets over the past 20 years. A YPPT defensive ratio of 20 or more simply means that the team’s defense I playing at a high level and forcing their last three opponents to gain 20 yards on average to just 1 single point on the scoreboard. If the dog in this situation is priced at 4 or more points they have gone 10-3 ATS for 77% winning bets in the divisional round of the NFL playoffs. Teams playing the divisional round of the NFL playoffs that won their Wild card game by 21 or more points have gone 23-12 SU and 21-14 ATS for 60% winning bets over the past 20 seasons. They have gone 12-5 ATS for 71% winning bets with a total of 45 or more points. If our team is facing a foe that is allowing an average of 21 or more points over their last three games has produced an amazing 7-2 SU and 7-1-1 ATS mark for 88% winning bets.
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01-20-24 | Packers +10.5 v. 49ers | Top | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 8 h 19 m | Show |
Green Bay vs San Francisco Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA 8:15 PM EST | FOX 8-Unit bet on the Packers plus the 9.5 points 1-Unit optional bet on the Packers using the money line Supporting the play on the Packers is a terrific betting system where betting on underdogs in the divisional round that are on a three or more-game win streak has earned a highly profitable 24-15 ATS record for 62% winning bets over the past 20 seasons. Moreover, if our underdog is priced between 4.5 and 10 points they improve to a highly profitable 16-7 ATS for 70% winning tickets. If the total is 50 or more points, these dogs have been near-perfect going 6-1 ATS for 86% winning bets. Betting on underdogs between 3.5 and 10 points that have gone four consecutive games with no more than one committed turnover and facing a foe that is coming off a game where they forced no more than one turnover have gone 23-14-1 ATS for 62% winning bets. In games with a posted total of 47 or more points they have gone 14-5-1 ATS for 74% winning bets. Betting the Over with any team coming off an upset win, which is Green Bay, and now facing a foe that lost their previous game by three or fewer points to a divisional rival has earned a solid 27-9 Over record for 75% winning bets over the past 10 seasons and if the total is 45 or more points the Over has gone an exceptional 14-4 for 78% winning bets. |
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01-20-24 | Texans +10 v. Ravens | Top | 10-34 | Loss | -114 | 5 h 35 m | Show |
Houston Texans vs Baltimore Ravens 4:30 PM EST | ESPN/ABC/ESPN+ 8-Unit Bet on the Texans +9.5 points and is valid to 8.5 points. The line is not likely to move and if it does I do not see it going more than ½ point in either direction barring some major breaking news of a star player being ruled out. Live Betting StrategyConsider betting 6 units on the Texans preflop and then look to add the remaining 2 units if the Ravens score the first TD of the game or when the Ravens retake the lead during the first half of action. Another strategy is to bet 5 units on the spread and 1-unit on the money line preflop and then look to add the remaining 2-units if the Ravens attain a 7 or more-point first lead. The negative part of these strategies is that the Texans score first and never give up that lead. Situational Betting AlgorithmThis one is a jaw dropper for sure. Betting on teams in the divisional round that lose the same-season previous meeting by double digits and is now facing that foe on the rod and with a game total of 48 or fewer points has gone 5-6 SU and 10-1 ATS for 91% winning bets over the past 20 seasons. Three of these matchups went into overtime. On January 15, 2005 of the 2004 season, the Pittsburgh Steelers hosted the NY Jets as 8.5 point favorites and needed overtime to secure a 20-17 win. On January 14th, 2007, the Chicago Bears hosted the Seattle Seahawks priced as 8.5-point home favorites and needed overtime to win the game 27-24. The Baltimore Ravens hosted the Denver Broncos on January 12, 2013 priced as 9.5-point favorites and needed overtime to win 38-35. Notice that each of these games had a significant favorite matching the line for today’s game between the Ravens and the Texans. The Texans lost to the Ravens on the road in the opening week of the season by the final score of 25-9 and failed to cover the spread as a 9.5-point road dog. Rookie QB CJ Stroud took that loss and used it to greatly improve over the course of the season and is now playing at an elite level. He finished the regular season ranked 8th with 4,108 passing yards and threw for 25 TDs with just 5 interceptions. He ranked 6th best with a 100.8 QBR and posted three game winning drives. The weather will be in the mid-20’s and winds will be at 15 MPH at the start of the game, but will be decreasing throughout the game. So, I do not see this being a disadvantage for either of these teams. The Stadium is a bowl and the wind will be blowing from end zone to end zone, so there may be an added advantage for field Goal attempts with the wind. The wind can swirl in this stadium, but nothing like how unpredictable the wins are in the NY Met Life Stadium in the Meadowlands. Teams that are on a three or more-game win streak coming into the divisional round of the playoffs and are priced as underdogs of 4.5 to 10 points have produced an 8-14-1 SU mark and a 16-7 ATS record good for 70% winning bets over the past 20 seasons. |
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01-15-24 | Steelers +10.5 v. Bills | Top | 17-31 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 32 m | Show |
Pittsburgh Steelers vs Buffalo Bills Highmark Stadium, Orchard, Park, NY Weather is going to be an issue with sustained winds of 12 to 17 MPH and a below zero wind chill. The wind will be out of the NNW and will make the one side play mostly downwind with a slight left to right breeze and into the wind with a right-left head wind. So, on kickoffs into the wind it will be nearly possible to achieve a touchback and more likely the receiver of the kickoff will catch the ball around the 10-yard line. I also think you will see lie drive squib type of kicks when kicking off into the wind. Any field goal attempt with the wind has the potential be achievable from 60+ yards despite the frigid temperatures. Right-footed kickers can draw the ball spinning it so it curves right-to-left with the wind holding the amount of draw and resulting in a mostly straight kick. On long range kicks, they can slice the football aiming a bit outside of the left goal post and allow the wind to push the ball further and from left-to-right though the goal posts. The kicking game (including punts) will be a major factor in this game. Tyler Bass is the kicker for the Bills and made 24 of 29 attempts (82%) and converted 49 of 50 extra points. For his four-year career with the Bills, he is 32 for 32 from inside 30 yards, 36 of 43 from 30 to 39 yards including three misses this season, 26 for 31 from 40 to 49 yards, and 12 for 19 from 50 and beyond. The veteran Chris Boswell is the Steeler’s kicker and he had an excellent season making 29 of 31 field goal attempts and 27 of 28 extra points. Through 9 seasons with the Steelers he has made 62 of 62 from inside the 30, 64 of 71 from 30 to 39 yards, 73 of 93 from 40 to 49 yards, and 30 of 37 from 50 yards and beyond. Despite kicking on the road, Boswell brings a significant advantage over Bass in this game. In the Wild Card Round, the underdog with the better defensive yards per point allowed ratio has gone 23-26 SU and 31-17-1 ATS for 65% winning bets. If our dog is priced between 3 and 7.5 points they have gone 13-17 SU and 20-10 ATS for 67% winning bets. The team that has averaged fewer dropped passes per game and is priced as a road underdog has gone 7-10 SU and 11-6 ATS for 65% winning bets in the Wild Card Round since 2019. The Steelers ranked third best in the regular season averaging just 0.94 dropped passes per game while the Bills averaged 1.67 dropped pass per game ranking 20th. |
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01-14-24 | Packers +7 v. Cowboys | Top | 48-32 | Win | 100 | 8 h 37 m | Show |
Green Bay Packers vs. Dallas Cowboys 4:30 EST | Fox| AT&T Stadium,. Arlington, TX I do not expect that the lie will move against the Packers and if any movement occurs it will be attributed to the public bettors., who will be on the Cowboys. I expect the Packers to get off to a solid start and score first. If they do score first, it would limit the live bet opportunity. So, I like simply making the 8-Unit bet preflop. Of course, you can bet 7 units preflop and save the last unit for live in game at a price of 11.5 points. Now, if they do not score first all is not lost either as 16 of 45 games played saw comeback wins by teams that did not score first. In the wild card round teams that scored first went on to a 29-16 SU record and 24-20-1 ATS for 55% winning bets. If the team scored first via a TD, they went on to a 25-12 record and 22-14-1 ATS mark for 61% winning bets. Road teams that were tied or led at the half have gone on to a 30-11 SU record and 31-7-3 ATS (82%) including a 27-13-1 Under mark for 68%. Road teams that led by 6+ points at the half went on to a 20-6 SU record and 20-4-2 ATS for 83% winning bets since 2002. If the road dog led by 6+ points at the half, they went on to a 15-5 SU mark and 18-2 ATS for 90% winning bets since 2002. Betting on road dogs of 7.5 or fewer points in the wild card round of the playoffs with a posted total that is higher than the dog’s average total during the regular season has gone 18-21 SU, 27-12 ATS for 69% and the Under has done well going 23-15-1 for 61%. If you like the Under, my recommendation is to wait and look to get a number closer to 57.5 points during the first half of action. Here is one of the best betting algorithms I my database consisting of more than 5000 across all sports and has earned a 17-20 SU record, but a 31-6 ATS mark for 84% winning bets since 2018. Bet on road dogs between 3.5 and 9.5 points that have allowed less than 100 rushing yards in three consecutive games. If the game occurs in the playoff rounds, these dogs have gone 3-3 SU and 6-0 ATS with the Under going 5-1. |
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01-08-24 | Washington +5 v. Michigan | Top | 13-34 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 56 m | Show |
Washington Huskies vs Michigan Wolverines With a total that is already in the mid-50’s, there is reason to believe scoring volatility will be present and that there may be several lead changes along the way. So, consider betting 70% of your amount preflop and then look to add 15% at Washington +6.5 and 15% more at Washington +7.5points during the first half of action. Another consideration is to bet 70% preflop and then look to add 30% more if Michigan scores the first TD of the game or retakes the lead during the first half of action. I also like a pizza money size bet on Washington’s team total over 24.5 points. This is just the second team from the PAC-12 to make it to the CFP championship game. On January 12, 2015, Oregon faced off against Ohio State in the first CFP Championship game and lost 42-20 as 6-point favorites. Current Philadelphia Eagles backup QB Marcus Mariota was the Heisman Trophy winner along with the Walter Camp Player of the Year, Maxwell Award, Johnny Unitas Golden Arm, and AP Player of the Year awards. Ohio State’s DL Joey Bosa was the only Buckeye to earn Consensus All-American that season. Oregon was 13-1 with one conference loss while Ohio State was 13-1 under Urban Meyer having just one loss losing in Week 2 on the road at Virginia Tech 35-21 as 10.5-point favorites. A little history of the only PAC-12 vs Big Ten Championship game as the rest have been dominated by the SEC Conference. Underdogs of 6.5 or fewer points are 3-4 SU and 5-2 ATS for 71% in the Championship game. The first five Championship games saw a dog of 6.5 or fewer points cover the spread. When the dog has covered the Over has gone 4-1. Betting on underdogs using the money line that are priced between +150 and +300 invovling a matchup of team that both average 1.25 or fewer turnovers per game, after the 8th game of the season and with our team coming off a game in which they committed no more than a single turnover has earned a 31-24 record averaging a +225 wager and earning a 67% ROI over the past five seasons. Washington head coach DeBoer is 19-2 SU in all games; 5-0 SU as an underdog; 11-1 SU after scoring 35 or more points; 17-1 SU following a win; 14-1 SU after a game in which they committed no more than one turnover; 9-1 SU after two consecutive games gaining 6.25 or more YPPL. Harbaugh is just 3-8 SU in road and neutral site games against non-conference foes. From the predictive model, we are expecting Washington to score 27 or more points and to have the same or fewer turnovers in this game. In past games in which Washington met or exceeded these measures they went on to an outstanding 24-3 SU and 20-7 ATS for 74% winning bets over the previous five season and 4-1 ATS in those games if priced as the underdog. Michigan is 1-11 SU and 2-10 ATS when allowing 27 or more points and having the same or more turnovers in games played over the past 5 seasons. |
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01-07-24 | Bills -3 v. Dolphins | Top | 21-14 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
Buffalo vs Miami Hard Rock Stadium 8:20 ET | NBA The following betting algorithm supports a betting opportunity using the money line and has produced a 32-13 record good for 71% winning bets over the past 10 years. The requirements are: · Bet on road teams facing a winning record host. · The road team defeated the host in their previous game. · The game occurs in the second half of the regular season. · The road teams scored 35 or more points in their previous matchup against the host. · The total is 48 or more points. The Bills are 24-20 SU and 26-17-1 ATS for 61% winning bets when they have failed to cover the spread in each of their last two games spanning games played since 2010. If they are facing a divisional foe in this situation, they have gone 9-8 SU and 11-6 ATS for 65% winning bets since 2010. From the predictive models, we are expecting the Bills to score at least 27 points and have the same or fewer turnovers. In past games facing a divisional foe and matching or exceeding these performance expectations, they have gone on to an impressive 21-2 SU record and 19-4 ATS mark good for 83% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. |
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01-07-24 | Cowboys v. Commanders +13 | Top | 38-10 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 29 m | Show |
Dallas Cowboys vs Washington Commanders 4:25 ET | FedEx Field, Landover, MD Betting on divisional home dogs revenging a same-season blowout loss of 27 or more points in the final four weeks of the regular season have gone 12-11 SU and 14-8-1 ATS for 64% winning bets. So, don’t think that Dallas is just going to waltz into FedEx Field and get a double-digit lead early and coast to a win. Of course, that is a possibility, but the numbers beg to differ despite the Commanders being a horrible team. The line for this game opened before the season started with Dallas a 3-point favorite at the Circa. Line movements of 7 or more points from the opening become fade or contrarian betting opportunities that have hit 65% ATS over the past five years. So, these opportunities always look like bad decisions and they do lose 35% of the time, but over the course of the second half of the regular season, they have provided added profits. |
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01-07-24 | Eagles -4.5 v. Giants | Top | 10-27 | Loss | -112 | 6 h 28 m | Show |
Philadelphia Eagles vs New York Giants Consider betting on the Eagles using the first half line to minimize the potential that the Eagles will pull starters at some point if Dallas does get out to double-digit lead. However, we are on Washington for a reason. Even if Dallas gets a 3 or more-score lead, they may even pull starters in the fourth quarter and giving Washington a shot at the backdoor cover. Just saying. Betting on favorites that are scoring between 23.5 and 27.5 PPG and facing a foe that is allowing 23.5 to 27 PPG and with our team coming off back-to-back games in which 50+ points were scored in each game has produced a 75-22 SU record and 62-32-3 ATS record good for 66% winning bets since 2010. If the game occurs in the final four weeks of the season, our team has gone 18-5 SU and 15-7-1 ATS for 68% winning bets since 2010. If a divisional matchup our team has gone 10-2 SU and 8-3-1 ATS for 73% winners. |
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01-06-24 | Steelers -3 v. Ravens | Top | 17-10 | Win | 100 | 26 h 30 m | Show |
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens 8-Unit best bet on the Steelers minus the 3.5 points and is valid up to 4.5 points. Be careful presuming this bet is a winner before it starts simply because the Ravens may not be starting anyone from the first units. So, with that statement, consider betting 70% of your betting amount preflop on the Steelers and then look to add the remaining 30% if the Ravens score the first TD of the game or retake the lead at some point during the first half of action. Betting on favorites that are facing a divisional foe that they defeated earlier in the season, is coming off two consecutive OVER results and with a total that is lower than each of the past two game’s totals have gone 46-33 for 58% winning bets since 1989. If the favorite is priced between 2.5 and 7.5 points, they improve to 40-10 SU and 34-16 ATS for 68% winning bets and 11-2 SU, 10-3 ATS and 9-4 Under since 2015. |
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01-01-24 | Texas -3.5 v. Washington | Top | 31-37 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 47 m | Show |
10-Unit MAX Bet on the Texas Longhorns minus the 3.5 points and is valid to -6 points. The market is telling you that Texas is the better team since they are favored but ranked No.3 to Washington’s No. 2. That does not tell us the complete story, though, so let’s dig deep here and learn why Texas is my pick and why I do believe Texas will win the National Championship. So, if you have watched the shows I appear on, the one consistent theme since Week 1 was that I saw Texas and Penn State colliding in the National Championship and had bet each one individually. So, now we have Texas left on the betting slips and even at current pricing. Texas is 14-3 ATS on a neutral field with a total between 56.5 and 63 points. Undefeated teams playing in a bowl game or the CFP and dressed as a dog have gone 1-5 ATS and 0-6 SU. Washington has played tough games winning their last three games by three or fewer points. Texas has won their last three games by 10, 50, and 28 points respectively. Texas QB Ewers threw for 464 yards in the Big-12 Championship game that they won 49-21 over Oklahoma State. They have covered the spread in five of their last six and three straight and the market is simply not catching up to the true market value of Texas. Three models that I have developed over decades of research prices Texas as a 9.5-point favorite over Washington. However, this does not imply that simply betting Texas is an easy winner. Instead it informs us that there is plenty of value betting Texas which increases are odds to win this 10-Unit bet, but certainly never a guarantee.
From the predictive model, Texas is expected to score 30 or more points and execute more rushing plays than passing plays. In this situation they are 87-9 SU and 71-24-1 ATS for 75% winning bets since 2015. Washington is 5-50 SU and 8-46-1 ATS for 15% when they allowed these measures since 2015. Betting on elite rushing teams gaining 4.8 or more YPRA from Week 7 on out, is coming off a game limited that opponent to less than 100 rushing yards and now facing a foe that is averaging 4.35 to 4.75 YPRA has earned a 78-41 ATS record for 66% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. |
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12-31-23 | Cardinals v. Eagles -13 | Top | 35-31 | Loss | -108 | 2 h 29 m | Show |
Arizona vs Philadelphia My recommendation is to bet 80% of your normal 8-unit bet amount preflop and the look to add the remaining 20% betting amount with the Eagles priced as 9.5-point favorites or at whatever price is available if the Cardinals score the first touchdown of the game or retake the lead during the first half of action. Granted, this scenario is not likely to happen, but it never hurts to have the plan in place if it does. I do see AJ Brown having a monster game against a Cardinals defense that struggles to cover anyone no matter if it is zone or man coverage situations. The Eagles will be in much better shape and nearly at full strength when the playoffs begin as they continue to get more starters returning from the IR. So, with pizza money, I am recommending a bet on AJ Brown over 83.5 receiving yards. Eagles are 28-14 ATS after failing to cover the spread in four out of their last five games. They are also 9-0 SU and 6-3 ATS following three straight ATS losses over the past five seasons. From the predictive model, the Eagles are 13-1 SU and 10-3-1 ATS when scoring 28 or more points and having the same or fewer turnovers in games played over the past five seasons. |
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12-31-23 | Dolphins +3 v. Ravens | Top | 19-56 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 28 m | Show |
Miami vs Baltimore M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore Consider betting 80% of your bet amount on the Dolphins preflop and then look to at 20% more at a price making the Dolphins a 7.5-point underdog or if the Ravens score the first touchdown of the game. Bet on road underdogs between 3.5 and 9.5 points. Our dog has allowed |
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12-31-23 | Raiders +4.5 v. Colts | Top | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 2 h 28 m | Show |
Raiders vs Colts 1 ET I would bet 7-units preflop on this one and look to add that final unit using the money line if the Colts score the first TD of the game or retake the lead during the first half of action. Betting on home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that have committed no more than a single turnover in each of their last two games and facing a host coming off a game in which they did not force a turnover has gone 31-36 SU and 48-19 ATS for 72% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If the game is taking place in the second half of the season and is a non-divisional matchup, our road warriors have gone 17-15 SU and 25-7 ATS for 78% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. |
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12-31-23 | 49ers v. Commanders +14 | Top | 27-10 | Loss | -105 | 2 h 27 m | Show |
49ers vs Washington
1:00 ET | EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville
Betting on teams that have failed to cover the spread by 33 or more points over their past five games and facing a foe that has seen their last three games play OVER by 30 or more points have gone 40-45 SU, but 60-24-1 SATS for 71% winning bets since 2009 or 15 seasons. In the last four weeks of the regular season double-digit home underdogs are 15-62 SU, but a highly profitable 48-27-2 ATS for 64% winning bets and if the total in these games is 45 or more points, our home dogs with fleas has gone 24-11-1 ATS for 69% winning bets over the past 15 seasons. |
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12-30-23 | Ole Miss v. Penn State -4.5 | Top | 38-25 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 19 m | Show |
Mississippi vs Penn State Noon, Saturday December 30 Consider betting 75% of your betting amount preflop and the look to add 25% more with PSU priced at pick-em or better during the first half of action. Another option is to add 25% if Mississippi scores the first TD of the game or retakes the lead with a TD score during the first half of action. Some notes of interest about the Peach Bowl. The 2023 Peach Bowl game is a college football bowl game that will feature No. 10 Penn State and No. 11 Ole Miss on Saturday, Dec. 30 at noon ET. The game will be played at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia, and will be televised by ESPN. This will be the first-ever meeting between the two programs, and only the sixth Big Ten vs. SEC matchup in the Bowl's history. Both teams finished the regular season with 10-2 records and are looking to end the year ranked in the Top-10 Final poll. Penn State boasts the nation's top-ranked defense based on my comprehensive power rankings. They are expected to slow down the high-octane Mississippi Rebel offense for the entire game. That does noy imply that Mississippi will be held scoreless, but rather that the Mississippi offense will not keep pace with the PSU offense led by sophomore 5-star The Peach Bowl game will be a clash of styles, as Penn State's stingy defense will try to slow down Ole Miss's high-powered offense. Both teams have a chance to make history, as Penn State can become the first program to win every bowl game that comprises the New Year's Six, and Ole Miss can win its first New Year's Six bowl game under head coach Lane Kiffin. PSU is 9-1 ATS as a favorite this season; 11-1 ATS after playing two consecutive games against conference foes over the past two seasons; 9-1 ATS in December games; James Franklin is 12-2 ATS when having won 8 or more of their previous 10 games; 16-1 Ats following back-to-back double-digit wins over conference foes; 9-1 ATS when facing a team that is averaging 275 or more passing yards per game. |
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12-29-23 | Notre Dame v. Oregon State +6 | Top | 40-8 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 51 m | Show |
Notre Dame vs Oregon State 8-Unit Bet on the Oregon State Beavers plus the 6.5 points Consider betting 75% preflop and then look to add 25% more with OSU priced at 10.5 points during the first half of action. Betting on neutral field underdogs that are facing a foe that has won 60 to 85% of their games and has won three of their last four games has earned a 32-10 record good for 77% winning bets since 2014. The predictive models I have developed reveal that OSU is 23-6 SU and 25-4 ATS for 86%) when scoring 28 or more -points and gaining at least 150 rushing yards since 2019. |
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12-29-23 | Clemson v. Kentucky +3.5 | Top | 38-35 | Win | 100 | 2 h 1 m | Show |
Clemson vs Kentucky TaxSlayer Gator Bowl | Noon ET, Friday This bowl game features a team from the SEC going up against a team from the ACC ro another conference if no ACC teams are available. Here are some more interesting facts about the Gator Bowl. Some facts about the Gator Bowl Football Game are: The first Gator Bowl was played on January 1, 1946, between Wake Forest and South Carolina, with Wake Forest winning 26-14. The most recent Gator Bowl was played on December 30, 2022, between Notre Dame and South Carolina, with Notre Dame winning 30-33. The Gator Bowl has hosted four national championship teams: Georgia Tech in 1952, Florida in 1996, Tennessee in 1998, and Florida State in 2013. The Gator Bowl has featured some of the most memorable moments in college football history, such as the “Fog Bowl” in 1959, the “Lindsey Scott Miracle Run” in 1980, the “Gator Flop” in 1971, and the “Woody Hayes Punch” in 1978. The Gator Bowl has also showcased some of the most prominent players and coaches in college football history, such as Bobby Bowden, Steve Spurrier, Peyton Manning, Tim Tebow, Joe Namath, and Johnny Unitas. Clemson (8-4 SU, 6-6 ATS) had a disappointing season by its own standards, losing four games for the first time since 2014. The Tigers struggled offensively, ranking 56th in the nation in scoring with 29.2 points per game. Quarterback Cade Klubnik had a solid debut season, throwing for 2,580 yards and 19 touchdowns, but also had eight interceptions. The Tigers relied on their running game, led by Phil Mafah and Will Shipley, who combined for 1,692 yards and 14 touchdowns. Clemson’s defense was solid, allowing only 19.9 points per game and ranking fifth in the nation in passing defense. However, the Tigers will be without some key players on defense, such as linebacker Jeremiah Trotter and defensive end Ruke Orhorhoro, who opted out of the bowl game. Most importantly, they are very thin at the cornerback position and any injury, even if minor that removes the starting corners out fo the game for a few plays, will present some high percentage chunk plays for Kentucky. Kentucky (7-5, 6-6 ATS) had a roller-coaster season, winning its first four games before losing five of its next seven. The Wildcats had a balanced offense, averaging 28.6 points per game and ranking 95th in passing and 96th in rushing. Quarterback Devin Leary, a transfer from NC State, had a breakout season, throwing for 2,440 yards and 23 touchdowns, with 10 interceptions. He had a trio of reliable receivers in Dane Key, Barion Brown and Tayvion Robinson, who each had over 400 yards and four touchdowns. The Wildcats also had a star running back in Ray Davis, who rushed for 1,066 yards and 13 touchdowns. Davis declared for the NFL Draft, but will play in the bowl game. Kentucky’s defense was average, allowing 26.8 points per game and ranking 65th in total defense. The Wildcats thrived on forcing turnovers, as they had 21 takeaways, including 14 interceptions. Head coach Stoops is 23-13 ATS when facing a non-conference game. Clemson is 3-12 ATS after allowing 14 or fewer points in games played over the past three seasons; 1-8 ATS after allowing seven or fewer points in the first of each of their ;ast two games in games played over the past three seasons. |
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12-28-23 | Jets +7.5 v. Browns | Top | 20-37 | Loss | -110 | 60 h 36 m | Show |
NY Jets vs. Cleveland Browns Thursday NFL on Prime 8-Unit Bet Under 36 points and is valid to 35.5 points. Betting on road teams in the last four weeks of the season that are facing a host that is averaging 2 or more points per drive and has allowed less than 100 rushing yards in each of their last three games has produced a 15-20 SU record and 23-11-1 ATS mark good for 68% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If the game is a conference matchup these road warriors have gone 13-15 SU and 20-8 ATS for 71% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. Two of the best defenses in the NFL square off in this matchup and there is an opportunity to bet the Under. Betting the Under in a game involving a team that converted three or more fourth down situations in a win in their previous game has produced a 46-25-2 record fort 65% winning bets since 2002. So, I suggest betting 75% of your normal bet size preflop on the Under and then look to get the remaining 25% at 41.5 or more points.
I do not play teasers often, but there is an opportunity for those of you who do enjoy the teaser bets. Tease the Jets up to 13 points and the Under up to 42 points. As game time approaches Thursday, there may be better prices available enabling you to get 42.5 points and 13.5 points. If you choose to do the teaser, I recommend betting 2 units only and then reduce the 8-Unit bets on the Jets and the Under to 7-unit bets. |
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12-27-23 | Louisville -6 v. USC | Top | 28-42 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 15 m | Show |
USC vs Louisville 8 ET | Fox | Holiday Bowl Betting on teams priced as 4.5 or greater underdogs in a bowl game and covered the spread in three or fewer games on the season have produced a 14-9-2 ATS mark good for 61% winning bets dating back to the 1989 season. The market has overreacted to how poorly USC played down the stretch ranking 11th best in total offense but a horrid 120th in total defense nationally and the fact that their 2022 Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams has opted out of this bowl game. It is also a fact that PAC-12 Bowl teams have gone a shocking 0-16 ATS when coming off a SU and ATS loss in their season finale. However, that trend is mature and statistically poised to move in the other direct over the coming bowl seasons. Problem is there I no PAC-12 conference starting next season. Trends like this one reflect a market that has continuously relied on it and others and the result is an undervalued underdog, especially in this matchup. USC has a new defensive coordinator who will prepare this Trojan team better than in any of the previous 8 games this season and further they have the motivation to play hard and put the those terrible defensive games in the rearview mirror heading into Spring Football. Lincoln Kennedy is an elite coach and is 6-1 ATS as a dog of 3 or more points in bowl games. If this game was priced before the season started the trojans would have been 9.5-point favorites. The predictive models inform us that USC is 69-4 SU and 55-16-1 ATS for 78% winning bets when they have been priced as a dog, scored 27 or more points, and had the same or fewer turnovers. |
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12-24-23 | Cardinals +4 v. Bears | Top | 16-27 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 23 m | Show |
Arizona Cardinals vs Chicago Bears Did you know that dogs of 3.5 to 4.5 points in the final three weeks of the regular season are 40-41 SU and 58-23 ATS for 71.6% winning bets since 1990. Here is a first half line with a road team facing a host that is coming off a game in which they allowed fewer than 50 rushing yards and is a solid ground attack team averaging 130 or more RYPG has earned a 35-11-1 ATS record good for 77% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. So, if you like the Cardinals as I obviously do, consider betting them with a pizza money bet if the Bears score the first TD of the game or retake the lead during the first half of action.
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12-24-23 | Cowboys v. Dolphins -2 | Top | 20-22 | Push | 0 | 6 h 23 m | Show |
Dallas Cowboys vs Miami Dolphins 4:25 ET, Week 16 Christmas Eve 10-Unit bet on the Dolphins minus the 2 points. Consider betting 80% of your bets size preflop and then look for Dallas to score the first TD of the game or retake the lead during the first half of action and then add the remaining 20% on the Dolphins. Betting home teams coming off a double-digit win over a divisional foe and the current game is a non-conference matchup has earned a 52-15 SU record and 47-18-2 ATS mark good for 72% winning bets since 2009 or 15 seasons. If the game occurs from game number 10 on, these home teams have gone 20-5 SU and 18-6-1 ATS for 75% winning bets. From the predictive models we are expecting the Dolphins to score 28 or more points and gain at least 8 yards per pass. In games over the past five seasons the Dolphins are 59-4 SU and 55-6-2 ASTS for 90% winning bets when meeting or exceeding these performance measures. If the Dolphins have been at home they have gone 31-0 SU and 26-4-1 ATS for 87% winning bets. The Cowboys have yet to defeat a winning record team on the road and have defeated just one team (Eagles) all season. They played horribly poor last week in Buffalo and were dominated on both sides of the ball. Moreover, they are averaging 40 PPG in home games and just 21 PPG on the road and is by far the widest differential of any team in the NFL this season. The Cowboys scoring differential between home and away is the most since the 2014 Green Bay Packers posted a 17.1 PPG differential, the Ravens in 2004 and the 49ers in 1991 posted 16.4 PPG differentials. In 2014 the Packers won the NFC North Division and went on to defeat the Cowboys 26-21 in the Divisional Round and then lost to the Seattle Seahawks 31-17 in the NFC Championship game. The Seahawks lost the Super Bowl on the last play of the game to the New England Patriots. The 1991 49ers and the 2004 Ravens failed to make the playoffs. [DB] Elijah Campbell (Knee) - Questionable [12/21/2023] => Campbell was limited in practice on Friday heading into Week 16 versus the Cowboys. [DE] Emmanuel Ogbah (Hamstring) - Questionable [12/17/2023] => Ogbah was limited in practice on Friday heading into Week 16 versus the Cowboys. [OL] Austin Jackson (Oblique) - Questionable [12/17/2023] => Jackson was limited in practice on Friday heading into Week 16 versus the Cowboys. [CB] Cam Smith (Hamstring) - Questionable [12/17/2023] => Smith was limited in practice on Friday heading into Week 16 versus the Cowboys. [CB] Xavien Howard (Hip) - Questionable [12/13/2023] => Howard was limited in practice on Friday heading into Week 16 versus the Cowboys. [WR] Tyreek Hill (Ankle) - Questionable [12/11/2023] => Hill was limited in practice on Friday heading into Week 16 versus the Cowboys. From all my resources Hill is a game-time decision but has a 90% probability of playing in this critical game. Even if he does not start, the 10-Unit Bet is valid. |
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12-23-23 | Utah v. Northwestern +6 | Top | 7-14 | Win | 100 | 54 h 52 m | Show |
Northwestern vs. Utah Teams that became bowl eligible coming off a season in which they won three of fewer games and playing a foe that won four or more games in their previous season has earned an outstanding 34-19 SU record and 38-12-3 ATS for 76% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If our team is a member of the Power 5 conferences (PAC-12, ACC, SEC, Big Ten, Big-12) they have gone a highly profitable 18-3 ATS for 86% winning bets. Northwestern is a member of the Big Ten and certainly outperformed everyone’s expectations this season given they were priced with a 2.5 wins total before the season started. |
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12-23-23 | Bengals v. Steelers +2.5 | 11-34 | Win | 100 | 126 h 38 m | Show | |
Cincinnati vs Pittsburgh 8-Unit Bet on the Steelers plus the points currently priced as 2.5-point home underdogs and is valid if they remain the underdog. This will end up being a contrarian bet as the Steelers have lost four of their last five games and three straight. They have scored just 67 points over their past five games ranking fifth least in the NFL. The Bengals rank 8th most scoring 125 points over their last five games but are prone to regression in this divisional matchup. Tomlin has made some questionable head scratching calls, but no one can take away his ability to prepare his team on the defensive end in a must win game. Betting on teams priced between the 3’s that have lost three consecutive games to the spread and facing a foe that has covered their last two games ATS has produced a 33-16 SU record for 67.3% winners and 32-14-3 ATS for 70% winning bets, including a 31-18 UNDER mark for 63% winning bets spanning the past 10 seasons. If the foe has covered the spread in three consecutive games, then our home team has gone 17-10 SU for 63% and 18-9 ATS for 67% winning bets including a 16-10-1 Under mark for 62% winning best over the past 10 seasons. If a divisional matchup our home team has gone 16-6 SU and 15-4-3 ATS for 79% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. Here is a money line system that has produced an 86-37 record for 68% since 1990. The requirements are to be on home team that is facing a divisional foe that they defeated in the previous same season meeting and with that foe coming off a game in which both teams scored 24 or more points and with the game occurring in the last three weeks of the regular season. If our home team has a 0.500 or better record, they soar to greater heights posting a 68-25 record for 73% winning bets since 1990 and 10-4 over the past three seasons (71.4%). Also, if our home team has struggled offensively scoring 70 or fewer points over their past five games, has a 0.500 record or better and facing a divisional foe from Week 14 on out, have gone 17-13 SU, 19-7-4 ATS for 73% winning bets since 1990. |
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12-19-23 | UTSA v. Marshall +8.5 | Top | 35-17 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 5 m | Show |
UTSA vs Marshall
UTSA is coming off a 29-16 loss as a 3.5-point underdog to Tulane in their previous game. Marshall is coming off a 35-21 win as 1-point underdog over Arkansas State in their season finale and that momentum will carry over to this bowl game. Marshall has seen 11 players enter the transfer portal with their sophomore quarterback Cam Fancher entering the portal December 11. However, Marshall is quite deep in the quarterback position. Marshall faces a quarterback conundrum with a major transfer triggering a rise in the betting lines to a double-digit spread. However, there is not going to be a significant drop-off if this opens the door for Cole Pennington, son of former NFL QB Chad Pennington, to step in under center. In fact, I see no change to a potential better offense with Pennington calling the signals. He completed 49-of-79 passes for 437 yards including 6 TD and 3 interceptions in three games, including starts against Georgia Southern and South Alabama. So, his potential is quite high, and he already has proven he can run an efficient offense. From the predictive model we are looking for Marshall to score 24 or more points and gain at least 5 yards per play has seen them produce a 56-12 record and a 42-25-1 ATS record over the last 10 seasons. If they were an underdog in these games, they have gone 6-4 SU and 8-2 ATS. |
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12-17-23 | Cowboys v. Bills -1.5 | Top | 10-31 | Win | 100 | 7 h 34 m | Show |
Dallas vs Buffalo 8-Unit Bet on the Bills minus the 2-points. Currently, 58% of the tickets but just 35% of the handle is on the Cowboys. The recency bias is a big factor in this game as the Cowboys are two solid back-to-back wins while the Bills held off a furious rally and strange officiating to get the ‘must win’ they needed. It remains a desperate now or never game for the Bills given that two 7-6 teams won Saturday in the Bengals and the Colts. They come in to the week ranked 11tnh in the playoff standings and after yesterday’s results are in the 9th position. With a win, they may remain in the 9th position, but with a loss, they would drop two positions to 11th. There is a myriad of playoff scenarios today, but if there are a few upsets, and the Bills win, they could be one of six AFC teams with 8-6 records with just three weeks remaining. The Cowboys are a different team on the road going 3-3 SU and ATS, but are 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS in home games. The Cowboys are the most prolific offense averaging 40 PPG at home, but are 9th in the NFL scoring an average of 23 PPG on the road. The Cowboys’ scoring differential between home and away games is 16.2 PPG and is the widest in the NFL by 5 PPG to the second-widest differential of the Titans. Moreover, the Cowboys average 3 dropped passes per game on the road, which is the worst in the NFL. The Cowboys defense in road games ranks fifth worst seeing only 1.17 opponents drops. From Week 14 on out teams that have a winning record but three or more less wins than their foe have gone 34-17 ATS for 67% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If it is a non-conference matchup, their record soars to 11-3 ATS for 79% winning bets since 2004. The predictive model projects that the Bills will score 26 or more points and have the same or fewer turnovers than the Cowboys. In past home games since 2019 in which the Bills have scored 26 or more points and have had the same or fewer turnovers has led to an excellent 25-1 SU and 18-8 ATS record for 69% winning bets. |
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12-17-23 | Commanders +6.5 v. Rams | Top | 20-28 | Loss | -107 | 29 h 15 m | Show |
Commanders vs Rams Betting on road underdogs that are facing a losing record team that has covered the spread in three or more consecutive games has earned a 50-57 SU record and 66037-4 ATS for 64% winning bets dating back to 1990 and is 14-6 ATS for 70% winners over the past 10 seasons. As for the Under bet the Commanders are the worst defensive team in the league, but they do matchup well against this Rams offense. They rank 32nd in scoring defense, yards allowed per game, and points allowed per play. The Rams offense rank 30th with a 59% completion percentage and matchup against the Commanders, who rank 13th allowing 64% completions. Betting the Under with a favorite of 6.5 to 9.5 points from Week 5 on out and is facing an opponent that has seen the total play over by 30 or more points spanning their last five games has earned a highly profitable 23-87 record good for 74% winning bets since 2017. |
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12-17-23 | Bears v. Browns -3 | Top | 17-20 | Push | 0 | 26 h 11 m | Show |
Chicago Bears vs Cleveland Browns 8-Unit Best Bet on the Browns mins the 3-points and is good to 4.5 points. Betting on all teams priced between the 3’s and now facing a foe that has allowed 14 or fewer points in each of their past two games has earned a solid 63-29-5 ATS for 69% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If the foe (Bears) had five or fewer dropped passes in their previous game, our team has then gone on to a 36-13-1 ATS record for 74% winning bets over the pat 10 seasons.
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12-11-23 | Packers v. Giants +7 | Top | 22-24 | Win | 100 | 6 h 35 m | Show |
Green Bay Packers vs NY Giants 10-Unit Bet on the Giants plus the 6-points. Consider betting this game by placing a 7.5-unit amount preflop at +6 and then look in game and bet the remaining 2.5 units if the Packers score a TD first or score a TD to go up 10-0 or if they retake the lead at any point during the first half of action only. Betting on teams that are facing a foe that has won their last three games priced as a dog has produced a highly profitable 26-20 SU (57%) and 28-18 ATS for 61% winning bets since 1990. If our team is playing at home they improve modestly to 16-8 SU and 15-9 ATS for 63% including a 17-6-1 Under mark for 74% winning bets. If our team is the dog or priced at pick-em they have gone to produce a highly profitable 13-11 SU mark and 18-6 ATS for 75% winning bets. If the game takes place from Week 9 on out, they soar to an incredible 8-7 SU and 12-3 ATS for 80% winning bets. Betting on dogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are slow starting ones being outscored by 5 or more PPG in the first half of action and after scoring 14 or fewer points in their previous game has earned a highly profitable 24-33 SU and 40-15-2 ATS for 73% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. |
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12-10-23 | Eagles +3.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 13-33 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
Philadelphia Eagles vs Dallas Cowboys Betting on road teams priced between 3- and 7-point underdogs that have two or fewer losses that defeated a divisional foe, who has three or more losses in the previous meeting have gone 17-13 SU and 20-10 ATS for 67% winning bets. Eagles are 7-0 ATS when on the road and following a game in which they allowed 30 or more points; 31-14-1 ATS following two straight games in which 50 or more points were scored. Cowboys are 16-38-2 ATS after covering the spread in 5 or 6 of their last 7 games. Eagles have played a much more difficult schedule to date than the Cowboys, who have yet defeat a team with a winning record. From my predictive models, we are expecting the Eagles to score 27 or more points and have an edge in time of possession. In past games when meeting these projections and also facing a divisional foe has seen them go 54-2 SU and 48-6-2 and since 2017 they have gone 12-0 SU as a dog. |
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12-10-23 | Bills +1.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 6 h 8 m | Show |
Bills vs. Chiefs Buffalo is off the BYE and the Chiefs have not been playing well of late. Over a three stretch that began 5 games ago, they did not score a single point in the second half. Buffalo is healthier than they have been since the start of the season and are in desperation mode at 6-6 and truly playing with their season on the line. The following betting algorithm has done quite well. · Bet on road teams facing a conference foe. · The road team has failed to cover the spread in 3 of their last four games. · The game occurs in December. · 51-47 SU (52%)| 67-30-1 ATS (69%) last 10 seasons. If our dog is priced between pick and 7.5 points has seen our road team go 31-12 ATS (72%) and supports a bet on the Bills Bills are 11-2-1 ATS in roads games following a game in which both teams scored 24 or more points; 22-7-1 ATS after allowing 35 or more points. From the predictive models, we are expecting the Bills to score 28 or more points and have the same or fewer turnovers. When they have met these performance measures in road games they have gone 49-5 SU and ATS and 15-4 SUATS for 79% over the past 10 seasons. |
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12-10-23 | Lions v. Bears +3.5 | Top | 13-28 | Win | 100 | 3 h 49 m | Show |
Lions vs. Bears 8-Unit Bet on the Bears plus the 3.5 points and is a valid bet if they remain the underdog. Betting against favorites of not more than 4.5 points that are playing in week 14 and later and are coming off a road win and have a winning record on the season have gone 14-21 SU and 11-22-2 for 33% winning bets since 1989. If that false favorite defeated a divisional foe in a previous meeting, they underperform even more going 5-10 SU and 3-11-1 ATS for a miserable 21% winning bets. This all supports a best bet opportunity on the Chicago Bears. |
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12-10-23 | Colts +2.5 v. Bengals | Top | 14-34 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 48 m | Show |
Colts vs. Bengals Betting on teams coming off an ATS win in which they won the game outright by a single score , completed 30 or more passes in that win and now find themselves priced as a home favorite have gone 24-30 SU and 20-34 ATS for 63% winning bets over the past 30 seasons. If the total is 44 or more points in these games, our road warrior has gone 22-14 SU and 26-10 ATS for 73% winning bets over the past 30 seasons. |
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12-10-23 | Rams +7.5 v. Ravens | Top | 31-37 | Win | 100 | 3 h 48 m | Show |
Rams vs. Ravens Betting on road underdogs between 3.5 and 9.5 points that have allowed fewer than 100 rushing yards in each of their last three games have gone 16-19 SU and 29-6 ATS for 83% winning bets since 2018. If the total in these games is 40 or more points, these road dogs have gone 13-18 SU and 25-6 ATS for 81% winning bets since 2018. |
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12-07-23 | Patriots +6 v. Steelers | Top | 21-18 | Win | 100 | 26 h 4 m | Show |
New England Patriots vs Pittsburgh Steelers I was holding my nose tightly given the stickiness of this road dog, who has won just two games this season. However, as we saw on Monday, which was not the first time, teams that look to have minimal chance of being competitive let alone have a chance to win the game outright, somehow find a way to shock NFL fans. I do believe this is one of those games. Betting on road underdogs that have allowed fewer than 100 rushing yards in each of their previous three games have gone 21-33 SU and 37-16-1 ATS for 70% winning bets since 2019. If our road underdog is priced between 3 and 9 points they have done even better posting a 20-5 ATS mark good for 80% winning bets and if the game occurs from Week 13 on out, these dogs with a serious case of fleas and badly needed bath are a perfect 10-0 ATS and 5-5 SU since 2019.
Betting on terrible teams that are priced between 3.5 and 10-point dogs and averaging 14 or fewer PPG on the season and scored fewer than 10 points in each of their last two games have gone 36-18 for 67% winning bets since 1990. If the game is occurring from Week 9 on out, these dogs have gone 12-15 SU and 20-7 ATS for 74% winning bets. |
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12-04-23 | Bengals v. Jaguars -10 | Top | 34-31 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 7 m | Show |
Cincinnati vs. Jacksonville
Betting on home favorites from -5 to -12 points in a game with a total of 40 or fewer points that have covered 5 or 6 of their last 7 games and has won 60 to 75% of their games and facing a losing record team has earned a solid 31-6 SU (84%) and 25-12 ATS for 68% winning bets over the past 25 seasons. Betting on home teams that are facing a poor defensive team that is allowing 6 or more YPPL and was outgained by 150 or more total yards in their previous game has earned a highly profitable 29-13-2 ATS for 69% winning bets over the past five seasons. The Bengals defense ranks dead last in the NFL allowing 6.41 yards per play. I have been hearing and more importantly seeing that the offensive play calls are now being called by Doug Pederson and since this ‘rumor’ began to circle around the Jaguars offense has been quite good. In the past two weeks, the Jaguars have scored 58 points, they have won and covered 7 of their last 8 games with the only loss and failed cover to the 49ers, who are destroying everyone on their schedule since the BYE week three weeks ago. The Bengals have lost and failed to cover the spread in their last three games. Their ground game has all but disappeared and gained just 25 yards on 11 rushes in their 16-10 loss to divisional foe Pittsburgh. The Bengals D has allowed 153, 157, and 188 rushing yards in each of their last three games. Pederson is 7-0 ATS after covering the spread in three of his last four games as the HC of the Jaguars; 10-1 ATS in home games when facing a foe that averages less than 1 turnover per game for his career. From the predictive models we are looking for the Jaguars to have 100 or more total yards and have the same or fewer turnovers. In previous home games in which the Jaguars met or exceeded these projections they have gone on to a 173-5 SU record and 146-28-4 ATS mark good for 84% winning bets since 2019. |
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12-03-23 | Chiefs v. Packers +6 | Top | 19-27 | Win | 100 | 8 h 24 m | Show |
Kansas City vs Green Bay Packers Betting on dogs that are coming off two consecutive wins priced as the underdog in each one and has won between 40 and 49% of their 8 or more games played on the season has earned a solid 28-10-2. ATS for 74% winners over the past 30 seasons and is 6-0 ATS and 4-2 SU since 2019. Chiefs are 1-7 ATS when coming off an ATS win and facing a foe also coming of an ATS win. Chiefs are 0-6 ATS coming off a win in which that opponent had a double-digit lead. Chiefs are 1-10 ATS coming off a double-digit win. From the predictive model, the Packers are 29-2 SU and 27-4 ATS (87%) when scoring 21 or more points and forcing 2 or more opponent turnovers in home games since 2014. |
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12-03-23 | Lions -4 v. Saints | Top | 33-28 | Win | 100 | 1 h 5 m | Show |
Detroit Lions vs New Orleans Saints Betting on teams that have won 60% or more of their games after having played at least 8 games and is coming off a home loss have gone 63-28 SU and 61-28-2 ATS for 69% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The Lions defense has been getting better each week with the exception of the Thanksgiving Day loss to the Packers. However, winning teams at this point of the season refocus after a humiliating home loss and get back on track. The Lions defense ranks 11th in the NFL having allowed 1038 yards after the catch or 94 yards per game this season. On offense the Lions have been outstanding in the passing game ranking 6th with 1,411 yards gained after the catch. I do not see the Saints being able to contain the Lions ariel attack and see the Lions winning this one fairly easily. |
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12-02-23 | Michigan v. Iowa +22.5 | Top | 26-0 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
Iowa vs Michigan I also like betting over the Iowa Team Total for 5-Units. Iowa is on a 6-0 ATS win streak when away from home and having allowed 75 or fewer rushing yards in their previous game; 18-7 on the road and when coming off a win by 6 or fewer points. Iowa head coach Ferentz is 38-19 ATS in games with a posted total of 42 or fewer points; 40-18 ATS when facing an elite passing team averaging 8 or more YPPA. Iowa is 20-23 SU and 26-14-3 ATS when playing with triple revenge and 16-9-3 ATS when taking on a conference foe and 8-2 ATS since 2014. Back in 2016 on November 12, Iowa as priced as a 24-point underdog to Michigan, and they defeated them 14-13 and the score at the half was 10-8 Michigan. Michigan got out to a 10-0 lead, then Iowa scored on a safety and added a TD, but failed to convert the 2-pointer. In the second half Iowa added a FG to take a 11-10 lead. Michigan followed q with a FG with 9 minutes left in the game and then place kicker Duncan hit a 33-yard FG on the last play of the game to win it. Think history repeats? It is a long shot for Iowa to pull off the upset and there is defense will have to play their best game yet this season. The four defenses in the nation based on my power ratings are in the Big Ten and Iowa is one of them. Iowa ranks 4th in scoring defense allowing 12.2 PPG, tops with a 0.171 opponent points per play ratio, second allowing just 3.9 yards per play, second allowing 5.0 yards per pass. They play smart and rank third averaging 3.3 penalties per game. Michigan is also a great defense, but if Iowa can force Michigan into second and third and long yardage situations, they are going to keep the game close and get into the fourth quarter with a single score margin. At that point, who knows what could happen. Iowa may not need their offense to be productive if they generate turnovers and perhaps even get a pick six. That is a lot to ask for if the game was priced at pick-em, but it’s not and we are getting 22 points to assume the risk. |
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12-02-23 | SMU v. Tulane -3 | Top | 26-14 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 24 m | Show |
SMU vs Tulane Betting on a team that has covered the spread by 50 or more points over their past 5 games both teams have won 80% or more of their games and the total of the game is 45 or more points has earned a 54-25-3 ATS mark for 68.4% winning bets since 2015. From the predictive model, we learn that Tulane is 62-14 SU and 57-19 ATS for 75% winning bets when scoring 24 or more points and having the same or fewer turnovers. SMU is 16-94 SU and 27-83 ATS for 24.5% winning bets when allowing 24 or more points and having the same or more turnovers. Iowa vs Michigan I also like betting over the Iowa Team Total for 5-Units. Iowa is on a 6-0 ATS win streak when away from home and having allowed 75 or fewer rushing yards in their previous game; 18-7 on the road and when coming off a win by 6 or fewer points. Iowa head coach Ferentz is 38-19 ATS in games with a posted total of 42 or fewer points; 40-18 ATS when facing an elite passing team averaging 8 or more YPPA. Iowa is 20-23 SU and 26-14-3 ATS when playing with triple revenge and 16-9-3 ATS when taking on a conference foe and 8-2 ATS since 2014. Back in 2016 on November 12, Iowa as priced as a 24-point underdog to Michigan, and they defeated them 14-13 and the score at the half was 10-8 Michigan. Michigan got out to a 10-0 lead, then Iowa scored on a safety and added a TD, but failed to convert the 2-pointer. In the second half Iowa added a FG to take a 11-10 lead. Michigan followed q with a FG with 9 minutes left in the game and then place kicker Duncan hit a 33-yard FG on the last play of the game to win it. Think history repeats? It is a long shot for Iowa to pull off the upset and there is defense will have to play their best game yet this season. The four defenses in the nation based on my power ratings are in the Big Ten and Iowa is one of them. Iowa ranks 4th in scoring defense allowing 12.2 PPG, tops with a 0.171 opponent points per play ratio, second allowing just 3.9 yards per play, second allowing 5.0 yards per pass. They play smart and rank third averaging 3.3 penalties per game. Michigan is also a great defense, but if Iowa can force Michigan into second and third and long yardage situations, they are going to keep the game close and get into the fourth quarter with a single score margin. At that point, who knows what could happen. Iowa may not need their offense to be productive if they generate turnovers and perhaps even get a pick six. That is a lot to ask for if the game was priced at pick-em, but it’s not and we are getting 22 points to assume the risk. Louisville vs FSU FSU is not a team based on a star quarterback. They are a complete team and no one talks about their defense that ranks 8th nationally allowing 17.1 PPG and 7th posting a 0.252 points per play allowed ratio. They are the BEST passing defense in the nation allowing 47% completions and 8th with a 9.08% sack percentage. It will be the defense that will get the job done and limit Louisville’s offensive production. FSU is 8-1 when facing an above average passing team completing 64% or more of their passes. [QB] Tate Rodemaker (Head) - Doubtful () [12/01/2023] => Rodemaker is tending to a head injury, and it is unlikely that he will take on Louisville in the ACC Championship game. So, Brock Glenn is likely to start under center for the Seminoles and he is an outstanding talent and athlete with size at 6-3 and 220 pounds and a huge arm. Four-star prospect ranked as No. 13 quarterback nationally and No. 7 overall prospect in Tennessee by 247Sports…rated as country’s 15th-highest quarterback prospect by Rivals, 17th by ESPN and 25th by On3…made Elite 11 Finals in summer of 2022…accounted for more than 4,500 yards of total offense and 68 touchdowns during prep career…passed for 3,928 yards and 57 touchdowns with only 13 interceptions and added 654 rushing yards with 11 touchdowns…led Lausanne to eight wins and advanced to quarterfinal round of Tennessee High School Division II Class AA playoffs his senior season…was 74-of-126 passing for 1,413 yards and 18 touchdowns and added 443 rushing yards and seven touchdowns while averaging 9.8 yards per carry…led Lynx to semifinal round of state playoffs and nine wins in 2021…completed 97 of 155 passes for 1,576 yards and 23 touchdowns…also rushed for 161 yards and three touchdowns on 31 carries…played six games his sophomore year, passing for 912 yards and 15 touchdowns and rushing for 28 yards on 12 carries…was 1-of-1 passing for 27 yards and rushed for 22 yards in one appearance as a freshman. |
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12-01-23 | Oregon -9 v. Washington | Top | 31-34 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 33 m | Show |
Washington vs. Oregon Betting on teams that are gaining 5.8 or more RYPA and coming off a game in which they allowed fewer than 100 yards and now facing a foe that gaining between 4.3 and 4.8 RYPA has earned a solid 125-70 ATS record good for 64% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. From the predictive mode, we learn that Oregon is 122-4 SU and 87-3% winning bets when scoring 35 or more points and having the same or fewer interceptions thrown. If they have scored 41 or more points and did not throw an interception has produced a 71-1 SU record and 54-15-2 ATS mark good for 78% winning bets. |
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12-01-23 | New Mexico State v. Liberty -10.5 | Top | 35-49 | Win | 100 | 2 h 23 m | Show |
New Mexico State vs Liberty Undefeated teams facing a foe with three or more losses in their Conference Championship game are 41-7 SU and 13-17 ATS for 65% winners since 1996. If our team si favored they are 41-5 SU and 31-15 ATS for 67.4% winners. If a double-digit favorite they have gone 34-3 SU and 25-12 ATS for 68% winning bets. From the predictive models we learn that Liberty is 41-8 SU and 36-10-1 ATS in games in which they have scored 31 or more points since 2018. Plus, if they score28 or more -points and gain 450 or more yards has produced a 32-3 SU mark and 26-8-1 ATS record good for 77 % winning bets. |
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11-30-23 | Seahawks +9 v. Cowboys | Top | 35-41 | Win | 100 | 80 h 42 m | Show |
Seahawks vs Cowboys Betting on road teams in a non-divisional clash that are coming off a divisional game and after this game they will take on a divisional foe (Sandwich) on the road has gone 16-9 ATS for 64% winning bets and the OVER is 16-8-1 for 67% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The Cowboys have looked like Super Bowl Champions in their wins, but then have struggled against losing record teams such as the Arizona Cardinals, for instance. This is a ‘sandwich’ game for both teams and serious regression spot for the Cowboys. Betting on teams that have failed to covered the spread by 33 or more points spanning their last five games and taking on a foe that has seen the OVER go 33 or more points spanning their last five games has produced a 34-33 SU record and 47-19-1 ATS mark good for 71% winning bets since 2010. |
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11-27-23 | Bears +3 v. Vikings | Top | 12-10 | Win | 100 | 8 h 36 m | Show |
Chicago Bears vs Minnesota Vikings Betting on road teams priced between a 3.5-point underdog and favorite that is coming off a road loss but covered the spread and with the game taking place in November has earned an outstanding 21-11 SU (66%) and 24-8 ATS record for 75% winning bets since 1989. I only like betting the money line in-game if the Vikings score a TD first or go up 10-0 in the first half of action. So, making the 8-Unit bet preflop and then add pizza money sized wager if the Vikings do get off to a solid start. The Vikings are just 17-23 SU and 11-28-1 ASTS fort 28% winning bets when coming off back-to-back games allowing less than 75 rushing yards in each game. The Vikings allowed 46 rushing yards on 15 attempts top the Broncos last week and 65 rushing yards on 15 attempts to the Saints the week prior to that one. They have also covered the spread in their last six games. Home favorites that are on a five or more-game ats win streak and facing a divisional foe that has won less than 40% of their games have gone just 4-10 ATS for 29% winning bets. Let’s bet on the Chicago Bears and get the 3 points. |
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11-26-23 | Rams +1 v. Cardinals | Top | 37-14 | Win | 100 | 98 h 34 m | Show |
LA Rams vs Arizona Cardinals Betting on a team that has failed to cover the spread in each of their last games and facing a foe that has covered the spread in two consecutive games and in a game priced between the 3’s has gone 31-14-3 ATS for 69% winning bets since 2015. If the game is a divisional showdown, our team, the Rams, have gone 16-4-1 ATS for 80% winning bets. |
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11-25-23 | Clemson v. South Carolina +8 | Top | 16-7 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 13 m | Show |
Clemson vs South Carolina Betting on home underdogs between 3.5 and 12.5 points that are riding a three or more-game win streak and facing a foe that has won at least their previous game and with a total of 50 or more points has gone 44-21-1 ATS for 68% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. This system has not had a losing season spanning this 10-season slice of games. SC is 5-6 and needs the win to be bowl eligible and that is far more motivation that what Clemson has to grab a hold of as they conclude their very disappointing season already with four losses. Clemson is 0-7 ATS failing to cover by an average of 13.6 PPG after allowing seven or fewer points in the first half of each of their last two games. |
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11-25-23 | Alabama v. Auburn +13.5 | Top | 27-24 | Win | 105 | 7 h 3 m | Show |
Alabama vs Auburn Auburn head coach Freeze is a solid 31-14 ATS when priced as the dog for his career and 16-4-1 ATS when facing a strong passing attack that is completing 62% or more of their passes. Betting on home underdogs that are allowing an average of 5.2 to 6.2 YPPL and facing a foe that is an elite offense gaining 6.2 or more YPPL and is coming off two consecutive games gaining an average of 6.2 or more YPPL in each game has earned an outstanding 90-42-2 ATS for 68% winning bets. Not a single unprofitable season over the past 10 seasons. |
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11-25-23 | Ohio State +3.5 v. Michigan | Top | 24-30 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 13 m | Show |
Ohio State vs Michigan Since 1980, there have been 34 games pitting 10 or more-win teams against each other and the DOGS have gone 13-21, but 20-12-2 ATS for 63% winning bets. If both teams have 10 wins exact, the dog has gone 8-8 SU and 12-4 ATS for 75% and there have been just three matchups featuring 11-0 teams and the DOG is 3-0 SUATS. Prop Bets with Pizza MoneyBet Over OSU points total of 20.5 points -115 Highest scoring half being the second +115 First Half three-way on OSU +150 to be leading at the half. In a matchup of undefeated teams in weeks 12 or 13, the dog has gone 8-10 SU and 14-4 ATS for 78% winning bets since 1987. If the dog is priced at single-digits, they have gone 7-5 SU and 9-3 ATS for 75% winners. I absolutely love the OSU defense right now and that is the part of this team no one is talking about. Since allowing 17 points in a 37-17 win over Maryland they have allowed an average of 8.5 PPG over their last six games. They have allowed more than 200 passing yards just one this season and that was back in Week 3 action where they won 63-10 over Western Kentucky and second and third stringers were in the game. So, overall OSU ranks 2nd in scoring defense allowing 9.5 PPG and second to Michigan, who is #1 allowing 9 PPG, but have played a much easier schedule. OSU ranks best nationally with a 0.145 points per play ratio, best allowing 3.9 YPPL, second-best allowing 27% third down conversions, best allowing 4.7 YPPA, and #2 allowing 145 PYPG. Michigan is not a good passing team ranking 61st averaging 228 YPG so they are going to struggle mightily to move the chains on any third and long situation. This game could come down a field goal and that is not good news for Michigan, who ranks 124th of 137 D1 programs making just 56% of their attempts this season. OSU ranks 15th converting 88% of their field goal attempts. From the model we are expecting OSU to score 24 or more points and have the same or fewer turnovers. In past games OSI when in this role have gone 145-5 SU and 106-40-4 ATS for 73% winners and when priced as the road dog, they are 9-1 ATS for 90% winners. |
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11-24-23 | UTSA +3.5 v. Tulane | Top | 16-29 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 18 m | Show |
UTSA vs Tulane
Betting on road underdogs that are scoring between 28 and 34 PPG, facing a foe with a defense allowing an average between 16 and 21 PPG, after week 6 of the regular season and is coming off a game in which they scored 24 or more points in the first half has earned a highly profitable 22-10 ATS for 69% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If our team also scored 42 or more points in their previous game, the improve to a stellar 15-6 ATS for 71.4% winners. Betting on road teams facing a foe that has lost to the spread by 49 or more total points over their last 5 games with the game occurring in weeks 10 through 13 has earned a solid 60-28-1 ASTS mark for 68% winning bets over the past five seasons. If our road team has three or fewer losses on the season, they soar to a 23-9-1 ATS mark good for 72% winning bets over the past 5 seasons. UTSA is 14-1 SU when facing a defense allowing 58% or higher completion percentage over the past two seasons; 11-1 SU when facing an elite offense that is gaining 5.9 or more yards per play over the past three seasons. |
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11-23-23 | Ole Miss v. Mississippi State +10 | Top | 17-7 | Push | 0 | 29 h 0 m | Show |
Ole Miss vs Mississippi State Ole Miss is on a 2-9 ATS streak following a game in which forced no more than a single turnover. Betting on home underdogs between +155 and +325 on the money line that are coming of a game in which they did not commit a turnovers and now facing a foe that has committed no more than a single turnover in each of their two previous games has gone 23-17 SU averaging a +198 money line wager and earning a highly profitable 92% ROI. Miss State needs the qin to become bowl eligible and there are 8 returning starters on that offense that will want to do just that especially against their state rival Ole Miss squad. I think that motivating factor for State is significant and may be the edge that gets them within single digits and a possible win. |
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11-23-23 | Packers v. Lions -7.5 | Top | 29-22 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 58 m | Show |
Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions Betting on favorites of 3 or more points and facing a divisional foe, are coming off a win, the last two games went OVER the total, and the last three games have seen the total lower than the previous game has gone 26-13-1 ATS for 67% winning bets. This total is priced at 47 points, last week the total was 48 points and week prior to that one the total was 48.5 points. We were on the Chicago Bears as a 7.5-point dog and they were leading by 6 points entering the fourth quarter against the Lions, who came from behind and won the game. Teams that have exceeded their team scoring total line by more than 10 points over their last two games and are favored by four or more points against a divisional foe and are coming off a come from behind win in which they were trailing by 6 or more points at the start of the fourth quarter have gone 17-9-1 ATS for 65.4% winning bets. |
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11-20-23 | Eagles +2.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 21-17 | Win | 100 | 4 h 6 m | Show |
Eagles vs Chiefs The Chiefs have had 23 games – most in the NFL - among 49 played since 2021 that they and their opponent both had 7 or more-point leads in the same game. So, this lends itself to multiple lead changes for this game against the Eagles. They are both the best team currently in the NFL and do think there will be lead changes during the first half of action. So, let the scoring volatility work for you and consider betting 70% on the Eagles preflop and then if KC scores the first TD of the game and it occurs during the first half of action then add the 30% remaining balance on the Eagles. Betting on road underdogs that have gained 7 or more yards per pass in each of their last two games and facing a host that allowed 5.5 or fewer yards per pass in their previous game has earned highly profitable 53-25-2 ATS for 68% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If our dog is priced between 2 and 7.5 points, they have gone on to a 38-19-2 ATS for 67% winning bets. Player Props Over Swift rushing and passing yards 77.5 at FanDuel. |