Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
01-21-24 | Chiefs +3 v. Bills | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 81 h 39 m | Show |
Divisional Game of the Week Rating: 4 Units Interestingly, of the eight teams arriving in this round of the playoffs, four of them rank in the Top 10 in both offense and defense. The Bills and the Chiefs are two of them. It’s our educated guess that two of the four defensively staunch squads will be meeting in Super Bowl LVIII, with the Chiefs looking to repeat. Patrick Mahomes is 2-0 in the postseason against Josh Allen – both wins coming at Arrowhead – but this will mark the first road playoff game in his career. So, how will he and the Chiefs respond against the hottest team in the league? That’s the question. What we know for sure is the Mahomes is also 11-1 ATS in his NFL career as an underdog, winning eight of the games outright. Head coach Andy Reid has a 7-4 ATS career mark as a playoff dog, and a 9-4 SUATS career mark in postseason games between the 3s (+3 to -3). The points are tempting for a team that owns the best ‘In the Stats’ record (13-4) at this stage of the playoffs. |
|||||||
01-15-24 | Eagles v. Bucs +3 | Top | 9-32 | Win | 100 | 99 h 23 m | Show |
Wild Card Game of the Week Rating: 4 Units Ironically, the only career road playoff game for QB Jalen Hurts was two years ago in a loss to Tampa Bay, where the Eagles return to the scene of the crime. In his career playoff starts, Hurts owns a 2-2 record, with 4 passing touchdowns, 2 interceptions, and an 84.7 passer rating. Lately, though, he’s been a similar mess with an 82.9 QB Rating the past four games while tossing 4 TDs and 5 INTS. And that’s critical, considering that the average turnover during the regular season is worth 4.3 points. In the playoffs, it jumps to 4.7 points. On the flip side, Baker Mayfield’s career was on life support in 2022 before his bounce-back season with the Bucs. The former No. 1 pick struggled down the stretch, but he had his best statistical season to help Tampa Bay claim the NFC South title for a third straight year. Given the success of home dogs in the Wild Card round and the fact that playing on any NFL home dog in the Wild Card Round if they are playing with same-season revenge is 9-1 ATS, so we’ll take whatever they offer up |
|||||||
01-07-24 | Rams +4 v. 49ers | Top | 21-20 | Win | 100 | 55 h 48 m | Show |
NFC Play of the Day Rating: 4 Units The Rams will be handing the ball to Carson Wentz, who at first glance is just 2-8 SU and 3-7 ATS in his last ten starts. But he is also 7-5 SUATS in his career with teams riding a three game win streak, including 3-0 SUATS in division games. The Rams are 9-0 ATS as a division road dog, as well as 5-1 ATS in its last six division road contests. Flipping the script, the Niners enter with nothing to gain as they have the No. 1 seed throughout the NFC playoffs and figure to be resting starters for an extended period of time, with star RB Christian McCaffrey and QB Brock Purdy already nailed to the pines and QB Sam Darnold slated to start. Finally, playing on any NFL .500 or greater division road dog with triple revenge is 48-24-2 ATS since 1981 Better yet, bring them in off a win and they improve to 35-13-2, while going 19-5-1 ATS when coming off consecutive wins, including 12-1 ATS since 1998. |
|||||||
01-06-24 | Steelers v. Ravens +3.5 | Top | 17-10 | Loss | -115 | 31 h 0 m | Show |
AFC Game of the Week Rating: 5 Units Baltimore is 6-2 outright against the eight teams seeded No. 1-7 in the current NFL playoff picture, winning the games with a +125-point differential. In fact, their only two losses were by 2 points against Cleveland and 3 points in an overtime loss to Indianapolis. The Steelers can make the playoffs with a win today and a loss by either Buffalo or Jacksonville, along with four other Wild Card possibilities. However, Baltimore’s 16-2 SU and 14-4 ATS ledger at home in games coming off a win of 35-plus points – including 13-1 SU and 12-2 ATS versus sub .600 foes – Finally, Baltimore is 12-3 SU and 13-1-1 ATS as a home dog in this series when the Steelers sport a winning record. |
|||||||
12-31-23 | Dolphins +3 v. Ravens | Top | 19-56 | Loss | -100 | 70 h 1 m | Show |
AFC Play of the Day Rating: 4 Units Baltimore is just 7-7 SU and 4-10 ATS laying points in its last 14 games when coming off a win as an underdog – including 1-9 ATS against foes with at least one win on the season and 0-8 ATS as a favorite of three or more points. That fits like a glove for the Dolphins and their 16-4 ATS mark as a non-division road dog of 5 or fewer points. With Miami 8-1 ATS as a dog after dressing up as a favorite, we’ll be on the take today. Finally, Baltimore is 0-3 ATS as a home favorite behind Lamar Jackson when coming off a SU underdog win. |
|||||||
12-30-23 | Lions v. Cowboys -5 | Top | 19-20 | Loss | -110 | 59 h 53 m | Show |
NFC Game of the Month Rating: 5 Units Cowboys currently sit one game behind both the Eagles and Lions and are looking to crash the party. They are also riding a 15-0 SU and 12-3 ATS run at Jerry’s World, including a 5-0 ATS log when coming off a loss. Detroit enters 1-5 ATS away when coming off an away game, while the ‘Boys are 5-1 ATS against the NFC North. Better yet, the Cowboys are 12-6 ATS since 1990 at home in Last Home Games against foes coming off a win, including 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS with a .600 or greater win percentage. Finally, Dallas is 10-1 SUATS as a favorite in games when coming off a loss, including 6-0 SUATS against foes coming off a win |
|||||||
12-23-23 | Bengals v. Steelers +3 | Top | 11-34 | Win | 100 | 31 h 39 m | Show |
AFC Game of the Week Rating: 5 Units Both the Texans and Colts have tiebreakers over Pittsburgh, after beating the Steelers earlier this season. This means that the Steelers will have to finish with a better record than both squads – which means winning out is mandatory for Tomlin’s troops. Tomlin can also lean on his 11-7 SU mark in games against .550 or greater foes in which Pittsburgh is riding a 3-game losing streak, including 5-0 SUATS the last five games in the Steel City. Meanwhile, the Bengals lug a 2-6 SU and 3-5 ATS mark in Saturday road games into the fray, including 0-5 SUATS against foes coming off back-to-back losses – which ties nicely into the Steelers’ 4-0 SUATS ledger as a host on regular season Saturdays. And finally, Pittsburgh head coach Tomlin is 11-4 SU and 9-5-1 ATS at home in games when the Steelers sport a .500 exact win percentage, including 4-0 SUATS as a dog |
|||||||
12-17-23 | 49ers v. Cardinals +12.5 | Top | 45-29 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 33 m | Show |
NFC Play of the Day Rating: 4 Units Niners are off a fifth consecutive win following the Bye with a potential Super Bowl pairing up next week when they host the rugged Ravens. They enter 0-4 ATS as double-digit road chalk since 2012 and 7-12 SUATS of late in this series. Meanwhile, the Niners are also 0-6 ATS as a favorite in this series when Arizona sports a sub .250-win percentage. Finally, Arizona is 8-1 ATS as a home dog of +9 or more points when hosting .750 or greater opponents. |
|||||||
12-10-23 | Eagles +3.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 13-33 | Loss | -110 | 59 h 39 m | Show |
SNF Game of the Month Rating: 5 Units Philadelphia isn’t currently scheduled to face another squad with a winning record for the remainder of the regular season. That should be good news considering the fact the Eagles are 9-4 SUATS in this series in games in which they own a .750 or greater win percentage, including 5-0 ATS when Dallas enters off a win. Take the points with the better team coming off an embarrassing loss, and if you’re uncomfortable, consider that the Eagles are 16-6 SU and 14-7-1 ATS versus winning foes during the regular season behind QB Jalen Hurts, including 14-1 SU and 11-3-1 ATS the last fifteen games |
|||||||
12-10-23 | Seahawks +11 v. 49ers | Top | 16-28 | Loss | -110 | 54 h 29 m | Show |
NFL Conference Play of the Day Rating: 4 Units Seahawks bring artillery of their own into this battle with a jaw-dropping 24-8 SU and 25-6-1 ATS mark in games when coming off consecutive losses as a dog, including 6-2 SU and 7-0-1 ATS against foes coming off a win of 7 or more points. They are also 12-4 SU and 13-3 ATS in this series before Game Fourteen of the season, including 7-0 ATS when the Niners enter off a SUATS win. However, Seattle head coach Pete Carroll is 9-1 SUATS in his career when coming off three losses, including 5-0 SUATS with the Seahawks, as well as 8-0 SUATS against foes coming off a win. |
|||||||
12-03-23 | Chiefs v. Packers +6 | Top | 19-27 | Win | 100 | 54 h 45 m | Show |
SNF Game of the Month Rating: 5 Units Kansas City totes an unacceptably weak rush defense into Lambeau that surrenders 4.6 Yards Per Rush. The Chiefs are also 2-9 ATS when coming off one win, including 1-5 ATS away. In addition, the Packers are 13-4 ATS as a dog of 3-plus points under head coach Matt LaFleur, including 9-2 SU and 10-1 ATS versus .800 or fewer foes. Toss in QB Jordan Love’s 3-0 SUATS career mark at home against non-conference opposition, and finally Kansas City is 0-9 ATS as a favorite when both teams are coming off an ATS win. |
|||||||
11-30-23 | Seahawks +9.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 35-41 | Win | 100 | 23 h 28 m | Show |
Thursday Night Game of the Month Rating: 4 Units Dallas looks to close the gap on the Lions, 49ers, and Eagles in the NFC Playoff Picture. For all of their success, though, there is a tax that must be paid, and tonight it comes as an inflated 9-point favorite. It’s more than they laid here to the Jets and 3-points more than what they were favored by here against New England. Topping it off, they have a same-season revenge rematch on tap with the Eagles. Pete Carroll’s crew enters this affair 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS in the last four games in this series. Carroll is also 16-2 SU and 15-3 ATS in Game Twelve of the season, including 8-0 ATS as a single-digit dog. With those boxes checked we wrap it up with the fact that Seattle is 14-1 ATS when coming off consecutive losses as an underdog, including 10-0 ATS in the last ten games |
|||||||
11-26-23 | Bills +3 v. Eagles | Top | 34-37 | Push | 0 | 30 h 6 m | Show |
Inter-Conference Game of the Week Rating; 5 Units If the NFL playoffs were to begin this week, Philly would own the No. 1 seed in the NFC. However, due to its recent funk, Buffalo would be on the outside looking in as the No. 8 seed in the AFC. Remember, though, the Bills are one of only five NFL teams that rank in the Top 10 on both offense and defense this season – the Eagles do not. We top it off with the fact that Buffalo is 5-0 SUATS the last ten years against foes coming off a Monday Night game. Finally, playing against any NFL home team who upset the defending Super Bowl champion in its last game is 6-0 ATS. |
|||||||
11-26-23 | Steelers v. Bengals +2.5 | Top | 16-10 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 50 m | Show |
AFC Play of the Day Rating: 4 Units Biggest Achilles without Joe Brr is the Bengals’ pitiable ground game which ranks last in Rush Attempts Per Game and No. 30 in overall rushing. Still, the bottom line is Pittsburgh is still 0-10 ‘In the Stats’ this season, and you won’t find us laying points with them any time soon. Not with the Bengals 5-0-2 ATS when coming off two losses, including 4-0 outright in the last four games. While this appears a strange “Best Bet” consider that the Bengals head coach Zac Taylor is 12-3 ATS as a dog against an opponent the Bengals defeated in their most recent meeting, including 12-1 ATS as a dog of more than one-point |
|||||||
11-19-23 | Seahawks v. Rams +1 | Top | 16-17 | Win | 100 | 95 h 15 m | Show |
NFL Game of the Week Rating: 5 Units The Seahawks have allowed more yards than they’ve gained this season. and the ultra-angry Rams enter off their Bye week riding a 0-3 SUATS losing skein. Underdogs in this role are 27-10-1 ATS since 1995. It doesn’t hurt that L.A. is 9-1 ATS the last ten games in this series, including 5-0 ATS when the Seahawks arrive off a SUATS win. Meanwhile, Seattle enters just 3-8 ATS in its last eleven division roadies, including 0-3 ATS as a favorite. Tie it into the Rams’ 26-16-1 ATS record in division games behind Sean McVay, and McVay’s 4-0 ATS mark in the first of consecutive division games when coming off a loss of 7 or more points, plus McVay’s 3-0 ATS career mark as a division dog with a losing record. Finally, the Rams are 4-0-1 ATS as a dog with a week of rest. |
|||||||
11-13-23 | Broncos v. Bills -7 | Top | 24-22 | Loss | -105 | 99 h 52 m | Show |
AFC Play of the Day Rating: 4 Units Denver checks in 0-9 ATS when coming off an underdog win, 0-7 ATS of late in this series, 0-6 ATS away when coming off consecutive home games, and 1-8 ATS when they are coming off a pair upset wins. And we didn’t even mention the Broncos’ 1-5 ATS ledger on the Monday Night road. Buffalo piles on at 7-0 SUATS in its last seven games as a favorite against the AFC West. They are also 15-4 SU and 14-5 ATS against foes coming off a SU underdog win, including 8-1 SUATS at home. If that’s not enough, then check out that Buffalo is 33-12 SUATS coming off three ATS losses, including 14-1 ATS against foes coming off a win (9-0 ATS at home). |
|||||||
11-05-23 | Cowboys +3 v. Eagles | Top | 23-28 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 10 m | Show |
NFC Play of the Day Rating: 4 Units Dallas has 11 wins in a row at AT&T Stadium, the league’s longest current run of dominance at home, but they are only 4-6 in their last 10 road games. However, they are also 6-1 SUATS in their last seven division games as a road dog of fewer than 4 points. Mike McCarthy chips in with a 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS mark in division games with a .500 or greater record with Dallas. The Cowboys enter this division duke out at 4-0 ATS in the first of back-to-back division games, while first-place Philly is 5-12 ATS in division home games against avenging opponents, including 1-5 ATS when the Eagles sport a winning record. Finally, Dallas QB Dak Prescott is 27-7 SU and 24-10 ATS in division games, including 7-1 SUATS during the first half of the season. |
|||||||
10-30-23 | Raiders v. Lions -8 | Top | 14-26 | Win | 100 | 81 h 37 m | Show |
MNF Game of the Month Rating: 4 Units Detroit returns home where they are 13-2-1 ATS as a host since Thanksgiving day in 2021. They are also 7-1 ATS in games when both teams arrive off a SUATS loss. And then there are the Raiders, who rank dead last in the league in rushing, averaging 69 yards on the ground, despite having Josh Jacobs in the backfield, which goes to the abilities of Josh McDaniels as a head coach. Note that home teams on Monday Night Football are a resolute 31-18 ATS since 1980 when coming off a loss of more than 21 points. Finally, Lions’ head coach Campbell is 17-8-1 ATS at home as an NFL head coach, as well as 18-6 ATS in games in which his squad hold foes to 100 or fewer rush yards, including 14-1 ATS the last 15 games. |
|||||||
10-22-23 | Chargers +5.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 17-31 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 58 m | Show |
NFL Game of the Week Rating: 5 Units When the Bolts hired Kellen Moore from Dallas to be their offensive coordinator after firing Joe Lombardi after last season, Moore was expected to elevate the Chargers’ offense among the best in the league. So far, Moore has done that for the passing offense, but the Chargers’ trouble running the ball has remained. Nonetheless, QB Justin Herbert enters 12-7 ATS in his NFL career in division games, including 5-0 ATS as a dog of more than three points. With the Bolts 10-3 ATS as division road dogs and the Chiefs 1-6 ATS after hosting a Thursday game. Finally, defending Super Bowl champions coming off a SUATS win are 8-18-2 ATS at home in division games the following season against foes coming off a SUATS loss, including 1-9 ATS when the champs sport a greater than .800 win percentage. |
|||||||
10-15-23 | Colts +4.5 v. Jaguars | Top | 20-37 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 34 m | Show |
NFL Game of the Week Rating: 5 Units Jacksonville is 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS as home favorites behind QB Trevor Lawrence. Game Six of the season has been more like a devilish 6-6-6 to the Jags as they are 1-12 SU in Game Six the last 13 years, including 0-6 ATS at home. That’s chock full of bad numbers, if ever there were any. If you think those bad numbers, consider that Jacksonville is 2-14 SU and 1-15 ATS as a favorite if it was an underdog in its previous game! |
|||||||
10-15-23 | Ravens -4 v. Titans | Top | 24-16 | Win | 100 | 24 h 10 m | Show |
NFL Play of the Day Rating: 4 Units Titans gained 400 yards two weeks ago facing the Bengals and then another 347 this past weekend. It appears the offense has come alive, but the defense yielded a season-high 429 yards in last week’s loss at Indianapolis. With NFL teams who are dining on tea and crumpets 6-1 ATS as favorites when arriving here off a SU favorite loss, we take added solace in knowing Jackson is 24-11 SU and 22-11-2 ATS away from home with the Ravens, including 4-0-2 ATS when coming off a loss. Finally, Tennessee is 1-13-1 ATS as either a favorite or a dog of 5 or fewer points versus AFC North opponents. |
|||||||
10-08-23 | Eagles v. Rams +4.5 | Top | 23-14 | Loss | -112 | 6 h 59 m | Show |
NFL Play of the Day Rating: 4 Units The Rams come in with a 6-1 ATS mark in games when both teams are coming off wins as favorites. Philly tends to falter in games against the NFC West, going 9-16 SU and 8-17 ATS in the past 25 contests. When the 2-2 Rams get Cooper Kupp back, it will be a scary tandem alongside rookie Puka Nacua. Nacua had another monster game after totaling 25 catches for 266 yards over the first two weeks, notching nine receptions for 163 yards last Sunday in Los Angeles’ overtime win at Indianapolis. Finally, playing against the defending Super Bowl loser from Game 5 out as an away favorite of fewer than 7 points in a non-division game versus a .333 or greater opponent is 16-1 ATS. |
|||||||
10-01-23 | Bengals v. Titans +2.5 | Top | 3-27 | Win | 100 | 15 h 13 m | Show |
NFL Play of the Day Rating: 4 Units The Titans surrender just 2.6 defensive yards per rush, which jumps off the page next to Cincinnati’s 5.1 DYPR. That’s a gaping difference. So, while a boatload of trends lines up in the Bengals’ favor, we’ll defer to stats and shade the Titans and Mike Vrabel and his glossy 16-9 ATS dog log against foes coming off a SUATS win. Finally, the Titans are 9-3 ATS at home against foes coming off a Monday night contest, including 4-0 ATS versus sub .400 opponents. |
|||||||
09-24-23 | Broncos +6 v. Dolphins | Top | 20-70 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 3 m | Show |
NFL Play of the Day Rating; 4 Units After blowing last week’s 21-14 lead after two quarters, Denver has now lost an NFL record nine straight games where it has had the lead at halftime. Even with first-year NFL coaches just 1-9 this season, the value is all with Denver in this matchup. You can count on one thing in this game: Sean Payton is pissed, and somebody will pay the price. He is also 23-7-2 ATS in his NFL career against foes coming off a win. Finally, NFL Game Three underdogs coming off a pair of SU favorite losses are 16-2-1 ATS since 2003, including 9-0 ATS versus foes with a winning record. |
|||||||
09-17-23 | Seahawks +5.5 v. Lions | Top | 37-31 | Win | 100 | 88 h 16 m | Show |
NFL Play of the Day Rating: 4 Units Seattle is 4-0 SUATS in this series, as well as 21-9 SU and 20-8-1 ATS when coming off a loss and facing an opponent coming off a win. In addition, Seattle’s head coach thrives against teams coming off a win from this division, going 11-3 outright in his career, including 5-0 when the foe is coming off an upset win. Finally, Seattle head coach Pete Carroll is 8-3 ATS as a dog with the Seahawks when facing an opponent coming off a SU underdog win, including 8-1 ATS as a dog of fewer than 7 points. |
|||||||
09-11-23 | Bills v. Jets +2.5 | Top | 16-22 | Win | 100 | 98 h 59 m | Show |
NFL Game of the Week Rating: 5 Units The Jets hosts division rival Buffalo sporting a long-term 8-5-1 ATS mark at home on Monday nights in division battles. They also bring a nifty 10-6 SU and 11-5 ATS mark in this series into this contest, including 4-0 SUATS as a competitive dog of 4 or fewer points. Meanwhile Aaron Rodgers enters on a nine-game win skein on Mondays. He is also 6-1-1 ATS as a home dog in his NFL career. Finally, the Jets are 22-10-1 SU and 24-9 ATS of late, including 6-0 ATS in season opening games the past six years |
|||||||
09-10-23 | Cowboys v. Giants +3.5 | Top | 40-0 | Loss | -115 | 74 h 20 m | Show |
NFL Play of the Day Rating: 4 Units The architect of the Cowboys’ offense, Kellen Moore, who has moved on to take over the offensive coordinator duties with the Chargers in Los Angeles this season. Over Moore’s four years as offensive coordinator in Dallas (2019-2022), the Cowboys’ offense totaled the 2nd most yards (391 per game) and 2nd most points (27.7 per game) in the NFL. However, Dallas is 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS away against quadruple avenging opponents, including 0-4 ATS in division games. New York is 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS at home when seeking quadruple revenge, including 4-0 SUATS in division contests |
|||||||
01-08-23 | Bucs +4 v. Falcons | Top | 17-30 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 8 m | Show |
NFC Play of the Day Rating: 4 Units Tom Brady is clearly programmed to break every NFL passing record in the book. In his best outing of the year – 432 yards and three TDs passing, one rushing TD – he completed 34 passes Sunday, adding yet another record to his seemingly endless collection. In the process he won his 19th division title, as the Bucs are now back-to-back division champs for the fi rst time in team history. Atlanta enters as a team playing out the string, just 2-6 SUATS and ITS in its last eight games while throwing green QB Desmond Ridder to the wolves. With the Dirty Birds just 2-13 ATS at home coming off a home game and Brady 3-0 ATS in his career as a dog in season finales, and finally NFL .500 dogs are 5-0 ATS in final games of the season when coming off a win |
|||||||
01-01-23 | Jets v. Seahawks +1.5 | Top | 6-23 | Win | 100 | 53 h 11 m | Show |
AFC Game of the Week Rating: 4 Units USA TODAY called out the fact that the Jets handed the Jaguars a Christmas gift two years ago when they foolishly rallied to defeat the Los Angeles Rams, 23-20, just before Christmas and granting them access to QB Trevor Lawrence as the No. 1 overall draft pick. Talk about a gift that keeps on giving to Jacksonville, it’s one that may well haunt the Jets for the next 10-15 years. What may also trouble the Big Planes today is their recent 7-16 SU and 5-18 ATS record in games when coming off a SU favorite loss, including 1-10 SUATS versus greater than .400 foes. That fits perfectly into the Seahawks’ 10-0 ATS record in home games when coming off consecutive underdog losses. Then there is head coach Pete Carroll, who is 8-1 SU and 6-3 ATS at home in January, including 4-0 SUATS with a losing record and 4-0 SUATS versus sub .600 foes – and our favorite holiday ‘Caroller’ has also never lost four consecutive home games. Finally, consider that playing on any NFL non-division home dog or ‘pick’ if they are 0-3 SU and ATS in their last three games is 112-82-7 ATS since 1980. Better yet, put these non-division hosts up against a sub. 500 foe in this role and the black ink turns a deep shade of green, going 35-19-3 ATS, including 16-1-2 ATS when they sport a win percentage over .100 and were a dog of 6-plus points in their last game. |
|||||||
12-25-22 | Packers +3.5 v. Dolphins | Top | 26-20 | Win | 100 | 46 h 26 m | Show |
Inter-Conference Game of the Month Rating: 5 Units For the first time in over two-and-half months the Pack finally have a winning streak. The Cheese Heads are the No. 10 seed in the NFC, currently 1.5 games behind the Commanders for the NFC’s final wild-card spot. Green Bay enters 6-1 ATS as a dog in games when favored last game. Miami returns home off a winless three game road trek knowing they are 0-4 ATS coming off three straight road games, as well as 0-4 ATS when coming off three losses. And that’s not to mention the fact they are 1-5 ATS as a host in this series. With Rodgers suddenly smelling playoff blood, know that he is 9-4-1 ATS as a dog from game 15 out, including 6-0-1 ATS when the Packers own a win percentage of .666 or less. |
|||||||
12-24-22 | Bengals v. Patriots +3 | Top | 22-18 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 2 m | Show |
AFC Game of the Week Rating: 4 Units Currently the Pats are the No. 8 seed in the AFC playoff picture but they must close out the season against the likes of these 10-4 Bengals, 8-6 Miami, and 11-3 Buffalo. Thus, it starts today against a Cincinnati squad who enters just 7-29 SU and 12-22-2 ATS away against the AFC East, including 1-6 SU and 0-6-1 ATS when coming off a double-digit win. Yes, the Hoodies need to roll up their sleeves and get to work against a Joe Burrow-led Bengals’ bunch on an AFC best 6-game win skein. However, consider that playing against any NFL team that is 6-0 SUATS in its last six games if they are facing a sub .700 non-division opponent is 10-1 ATS since 1980. |
|||||||
12-18-22 | Bengals v. Bucs +4 | Top | 34-23 | Loss | -115 | 28 h 30 m | Show |
NFL Upset of the Month Rating: 5 Units Bengals are 5-0 SUATS the last fi ve games, and that may sound good to Joe Public, but not to the savvy handicapper as non-rested NFL teams on a 5-0 SUATS win streak have puked as non-division favorites of 5 or fewer points, going just 10-20-1 ATS in this role. On the other side of this hardto-like take are the Bucs, who were totally throttled in last week’s 28-point loss at San Francisco. It doesn’t get much worse than that. In fact, it was the third-worst loss in Brady’s NFL career. And adding more misery, it occurred at the hands of 7th round rookie QB Brock Purdy. By now we all know of Brady’s jaw-dropping 11-1 ATS career mark as a home dog. But don't forget that Tom Brady is 16-3 SU and 18-1 ATS as a pick or dog off a loss in his NFL career, including 10-0 SUATS off a loss of more than 7 points. |
|||||||
12-18-22 | Cowboys v. Jaguars +4 | Top | 34-40 | Win | 100 | 25 h 58 m | Show |
NFL Game of the Week Rating: 4 Units Jaguars’ QB Trevor Lawrence, has over the course of his last three games sport a 111.7 QB Rating with 0 INTs. Meanwhile, the not-so-big news in the Dallas receiver room is that WR TY Hilton will be joining the Cowboys, not Odell Beckham, Jr. The feeling here is OBJ may still be in play for America’s Team, but not until he’s able to take the field. Yes, the Boys are confident, riding an 8-game ITS (In The Stats) win skein entering today’s game. But we can’t ignore that playing against any sub .800 NFL non-division road favorite coming off three straight home games from Game 11 out is 12-1-1 since 1980. |
|||||||
12-11-22 | Panthers v. Seahawks -3.5 | Top | 30-24 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 10 m | Show |
Mismatch of the Week Rating: 5 Units So why is it, that the Seahawks a measly 3.5-point favorite at home against the 4-8 Panthers? Is Vegas telling us something? They may be trying, but we’re not buying. Not with Carolina 0-3 SUATS in NFC West division duke outs this season, and 0-3 SUATS the last three games in this series. And not with the Panthers a pussycat-like 0-4 ATS in games when coming off a Bye week. Turn it around and you’ll find a Seahawks squad 7-3 ATS against foes coming off a Bye week. Better yet, the Seahawks are 25-3 SU and 21-6-1 ATS in games when coming off consecutive ATS losses under head coach Pete Carroll, including 15-0 SU and 14-1 ATS at home. |
|||||||
12-11-22 | Bucs +3.5 v. 49ers | Top | 7-35 | Loss | -115 | 29 h 3 m | Show |
NFC Game of the Week Rating: 4 Units Brady is simply the best as an underdog, going 41-17-1 ATS in his illustrious career, including 19-4-1 ATS when his team is seeking revenge and 17-5 ATS when his team is coming off an ATS loss. He also stands 21-6 SU in his career in games in which his team is .500 on the season. Perhaps even more impressive is Brady’s 45-14 SU and 43-12-4 ATS mark in games against foes with a better record, including 24-6 ATS when taking points. With Monday night’s stirring comeback win over the Saints, the Bucs currently hold down the No. 4 seed in the NFC playoff picture while the Niners lay claim to the No. 2 seed. Frisco is just 1-7 ATS as non-division home chalk of fewer than four points and Tampa Bay is 7-1-2 ATS as a dog after being a favorite the previous game. Finally consider that playing against any .666 or greater single-digit NFL regular season home team coming off consecutive home wins if they are facing an opponent coming off a loss is 14-2-1 since 1983. |
|||||||
11-27-22 | Packers +6.5 v. Eagles | Top | 33-40 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
Prime Time Game of the Week Rating: 4 Units The ‘return to the norm’ is simply too strong to overcome as ATS losses begin to pile up with each passing week. With it the Eagles enter this week on a 3-game ATS losing skid while having been out yarded in half of their last six games. Granted, the Packers are facing demons of their own, but Aaron Rodgers thrives in these situations, and we expect nothing less today. With it the Pack checks in 7-1 ATS in game versus .750 or greater foes the past two seasons, as well as 8-2 ATS when coming off a Thursday contest. Meanwhile, the Green Birds enter 1-8 ATS versus foes off a SU home favorite loss, and just 3-8 ATS against foes coming off a Thursday game. To cap it off, Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers is 10-1 SUATS as a dog when the Packers are coming off a SU favorite loss, including 7-0 ATS versus .700 or greater foes. |
|||||||
11-20-22 | Bengals -3.5 v. Steelers | Top | 37-30 | Win | 100 | 19 h 43 m | Show |
Divisional Game of the Month Rating: 5 Units The Bengals are 8-0 ATS when coming off a non-division game when facing a foe that is also coming off a non-division game, as well as 7-0 ATS off a win versus foes coming off a win. And then there is Burrow, who brings a 9-1 SUATS career record into this game when facing an NFL opponent coming off a SUATS win. Meanwhile, the Black-and-Gold are at home following last week’s home win with a 0-4 SUATS ledger at home when coming a home game. Mike Tomlin’s troops are also 1-8 ITS (In The Stats) this season while being outgained an average -85 YPG. Finally the Bengals are 25-1 ATS in their last twenty-six division games they win outright |
|||||||
11-20-22 | Cowboys v. Vikings +2 | Top | 40-3 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 37 m | Show |
NFL Play of the Day Rating: 4 Units Mike McCarthy, not the sharpest knife in the NFL coaches’ drawer, decided to go for it on fourth-and-3 from Green Bay’s 35-yard line in overtime rather than kicking a field goal to go up by 3 points. The Cowboys failed to convert and the Packers then proceeded to kick the game-winning field goal. Another knock at the door is Dallas’ 3-10 ATS log in this series, including 1-10 ATS without rest. To clinch it all, Dallas is 3-18-1 ATS as a conference favorite versus .666 or greater opponents, including 3-11 SU and 0-13-1 ATS as a favorite of fewer than 4 points. |
|||||||
11-13-22 | Browns +3.5 v. Dolphins | Top | 17-39 | Loss | -110 | 44 h 22 m | Show |
Upset of the Week Rating: 5 Units Coming off their Bye week, the Browns look to be as healthy as they’ve been all season with star DB Denzel Ward and OT Wyatt Teller due back after resting lingering injuries. They are also as hungry as they’ve been this season as they now trail AFC North Division-leading Baltimore by 2.5 games and need to up their game in anticipation of the return of QB Deshaun Watson in three weeks. The Browns secondary better sharpen up, though, going against the top 1-2 WR duo in the league in Tyreek Hill and Jalen Waddle. Hill is on pace for a record 2,085 yards and could become the first ever receiver to surpass 2,000. Nonetheless, Miami arrives 3-8 ATS following consecutive NFC contests, while Cleveland is 7-1 ATS in this series, 4-0 ATS in first of back-to-back roadies, and 5-1 ATS following a division home game. Consider that Cleveland HC is 11-6 ATS as a dog with his current team, including 5-0 ATS against opponents he defeated in a most recent meeting. |
|||||||
11-13-22 | Seahawks +3 v. Bucs | Top | 16-21 | Loss | -120 | 41 h 58 m | Show |
NFL Play of the Day Rating: 4 Units Pete Carroll’s crew enters on a 4-0 SUATS win skein, winning three of the games outright as underdogs. And speaking of dogs, Seattle QB Geno Smith is 12-3 ATS in his last fifteen games when taking points in this league, including 7-0 ATS versus .444 or greater foes. On the other side of the fi eld, it should be noted that Brady is 3-0 SUATS in his NFL career in regular season games on neutral fields, but only 1-2 SU and 0-2-1 ATS versus NFC West foes with the Bucs. In wrapping things up, it should also be noted that NFL teams with the better record are 19-8-1 SU and 16-12 ATS in Euro games. To clinch is, Seattle head coach Pete Carroll is 7-2 ATS as a dog with the Seahawks when riding a three-game-plus win skein, including 7-0 ATS when taking either 2 or 3 points. |
|||||||
10-30-22 | Raiders v. Saints +1.5 | Top | 0-24 | Win | 100 | 20 h 11 m | Show |
NFL Play of the Day Rating: 5 Units Las Vegas has cashed in each of the games, winning two of them on the scoreboard. Like Arizona, they are still on the outside looking in at the current NFL playoff picture. Unfortunately, they’ve struggled against foes coming off a Thursday game going just 4-10-1 ATS. And they’ve also wriggled in this series with a 4-6 SU and 3-7 ATS mark the last ten gatherings. The Saints have won the stats in 5 of their seven games this season, including each of their last three games. As a result, they bring the better offense and the better defense into this fray. They are also 11-4 SU at home when playing off a SU previous home loss. Finally, consider that NFL playoff teams the previous year are 6-22 SU and 7-20-1 ATS away in Game Seven when coming off consecutive ATS wins if not favored by 3 or more points, including 2-15 ATS if the Over/Under total in this game is greater than 40 points. |
|||||||
10-23-22 | Steelers v. Dolphins -7 | Top | 10-16 | Loss | -120 | 52 h 11 m | Show |
Inter-conference Game of the Month Rating: 5 Units After starting 3-0 SUATS this season behind the lefty, the Fish ride a 0-3 SUATS skid entering this contest. The Dolphins have plummeted from being ranked fi rst in points per drive with Tagovailoa, to 29th without him. Tua, though, brings a lofty 16-9 SU and 15-9-1 ATS career mark into this battle, including 10-4 SUATS at home. Nonetheless, concussions take center stage in this contest with new rookie QB Kenny Pickett currently in concussion protocol. Steelers’ backup QB Mitchell Trubisky completed nine of 12 passes for 144 yards and a TD in relief of Pickett who left last week’s game woozy with a concussion. Another side bar issue today will be the return of former Miami head coach and current Pittsburgh defensive assistant Brian Flores, who’s has had run-ins with Fish owner Stephen Ross over reported ‘tanking’ issues. However, .500 or greater NFL teams, 0-3 SUATS in their last three games, are 14-1 SUATS since 2000 when facing a foe coming off a SU underdog win. |
|||||||
10-23-22 | Chiefs v. 49ers +2.5 | Top | 44-23 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 8 m | Show |
NFL Play of the Day Rating: 4 Units Kansas City is 8-18 ATS as a favorite when coming off one loss when facing a foe coming off a loss, including 3-14 ATS versus avenging foes. The bottom line, though, the Niners’ No. 1 ranked defense is 101 YPG superior to that of the Chiefs. That being the case, Frisco head coach Kyle Shanahan is 14-6 ATS as a dog with a win percentage of .333 or more, including 6-0 ATS versus .714 or fewer opponents. |
|||||||
10-16-22 | Cowboys v. Eagles -6.5 | Top | 17-26 | Win | 100 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
SNF Game of the Week Rating: 5 Units The stat that jumps out in this contest is that both teams rank No. 1 and 2 in Net Turnover Margin, with Philly +1.8 and Dallas +1.0. For what it’s worth, the Eagles are 2-5 SU and 1-5-1 ATS under Nick Sirianni in games in which they lose the TOs, while the Cowboys are 4-9 SU and 3-10 ATS the same way under Mike McCarthy. Meanwhile, where Sunday night home teams coming off consecutive wins tend to struggle, there is no refuting the fact that teams who just upset the defending Super Bowl champions are close to no shows the following game. The Cowboys are 0-5 ATS in games after Rams, and the Eagles seeking triple revenge it's important knowing America’s Team is a meager 1-9 SUATS away versus .428 or greater foes seeking triple revenge. Finally, playing against any NFL away team who upset the defending Super Bowl champion in their last game by 7+ points and scored 28+ points if they’re facing a .400 > foe and the O/U total in this game is < 44 is a PERFECT 15-0 ATS since 1980. |
|||||||
10-16-22 | Bills v. Chiefs +3 | Top | 24-20 | Loss | -120 | 49 h 4 m | Show |
AFC Game of the Week Rating: 4 Units It starts with KC QB Patrick Mahomes’ 12-1 SU mark versus .777 or greater foes, as well as his 4-1 SUATS record at home versus the AFC East during the regular season. On the flip side, Bills QB Josh Allen has struggled away in his NFL career against .700 or better foes, going just 2-5 SUATS. Digging deeper, the Bills are 1-12 ATS in the 2nd quarter of the season (Games 5-8) with a .500 or greater win percentage when coming off a SUATS win and facing an opponent coming off a home game. Head coach Andy Reid brings in a 28-9-1 ATS dog log into this prime time showdown when coming off consecutive wins, including 4-0-1 ATS at home. Consider also that the Chiefs QB Mahomes is 9-0 ATS as a dog in his NFL career. |
|||||||
10-09-22 | Bengals +3 v. Ravens | Top | 17-19 | Win | 100 | 96 h 51 m | Show |
SNF Game of the Month Rating: 5 Units Baltimore has been outgained in all four games this season. Cincinnati’s strength this season has been its defense as they rank No. 8 in points allowed and No. 11 in overall yards allowed. They are also one of five teams that have been installed as a favorite in every game this year – yet dress up as a dog today. Finally, consider that Cincinnati is 12-1 ATS against foes seeking double revenge. |
|||||||
10-09-22 | Falcons v. Bucs -8.5 | Top | 15-21 | Loss | -110 | 88 h 50 m | Show |
NFC South Game of the Week Rating: 4 Units Brady is 12-4 ATS in his NFL career when his team is coming off consecutive losses, as well as 23-7 ATS when his team is coming off a double-digit loss. To clinch it, Brady is 7-1 ATS when his team is coming off a double-digit home loss, including 7-0 ATS the last seven games. |
|||||||
10-02-22 | Jaguars v. Eagles -6.5 | Top | 21-29 | Win | 100 | 15 h 47 m | Show |
NFL Play of the Day Rating: 4 Units Given the fact the Jags, with their new head coach Doug Pederson, are 0-10 ATS in the second of consecutive away games, they are also 0-4 ATS against the NFC East. On the other side of the coin, Philly is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games against the AFC South. All good numbers in the Eagles’ favor, for sure. To cap all of this off, consider that playing one any NFL non-division home team in Game 4 if not favored by more than 7 points vs. a foe that scored more than 24 points in its last game is 17-3 ATS since 1980. |
|||||||
09-25-22 | Packers +1 v. Bucs | Top | 14-12 | Win | 100 | 48 h 53 m | Show |
NFC Game of the Week Rating: 4 Units Green Bay’s is 14-2 ATS in games after battling the Bears, along with the Pack’s 9-5-1 SU and 10-5 ATS record in games when seeking “double revenge”, including 10-2 ATS versus .333 or great foes. On the other side of the coin, the Bucs are 2-8 ATS at home against foes seeking “double revenge”, as well as 2-7 SU and 1-8 ATS in Game Three’s of the season. Finally the Packers are 11-2 SUATS with a sub .750 win percentage under head coach Matt LaFleur, including 4-0 SUATS when seeking revenge. |
|||||||
09-25-22 | Chiefs v. Colts +5.5 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 45 h 35 m | Show |
AFC Game of the Month Rating: 5 Units Matt Ryan now owns a 63.9 QB Rating with the Colts. The saving grace is his 11-5 SUATS career record against AFC West opposition, including 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS as a dog. On the opposite side of the field, the 2-0 Chiefs – the only undefeated team in the AFC West – enter with a Super Bowl grudge rematch on tap at Tampa Bay next week. Kansas City’s 1-5 ATS record in its last six AFC South skirmishes, and the Colts 6-1 ATS log when coming off a division road. Finally NFL home dogs coming off a shutout loss are 12-2-1 ATS, including 10-0 ATS versus .466 or greater opponents. |
|||||||
09-18-22 | Bears v. Packers -10 | Top | 10-27 | Win | 100 | 34 h 16 m | Show |
SNF Game of the Month Rating; 5 Units Rodgers has made a living at home in his career with the Packers, going 69-38-4 ATS overall, including 27-12 ATS in division games, as well as 28-9-2 ATS when hosting foes coming off a SUATS win. Green Bay is 20-3 SU and 18-5 ATS in this series since 2011, including 8-0 SUATS when coming off a loss. To clinch it, Green Bay is 9-0 SUATS in regular season games when coming off a loss under head coach Matt LaFleur. |
|||||||
09-18-22 | Bucs v. Saints +3 | Top | 20-10 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 2 m | Show |
NFC Division Game of the Week Rating: 4 Units Tom Brady comes into this one with a 2-7 ATS career mark when taking to the road as a favorite when coming off a road win after beating the spread by double-digits in his last game including six straight losing tickets in his last six tries. Additionally Tampa is 1-6 ATS away in games with double revenge. Consider as well that New Orleans is 7-1 ATS the last eight games in this series, and 8-1 SU and 9-0 ATS as conference home dogs versus .800 or greater opponents. |
|||||||
09-11-22 | Bucs -2.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 19-3 | Win | 100 | 75 h 26 m | Show |
NFL Game of the Month Rating: 5 Units Bucs are 1-6 ATS as non-division road chalk and 1-6-2 ATS in their last nine games against NFC East foes. Looking to the opposite side of the field we find Dallas at 7-0 ATS in its last seven home dog roles, and 4-0 ATS versus the, NFC South. To cap it off consider that an NFL pick or road favorites who won 13-plus games last season are 19-32-1 ATS in season openers, including 0-4 ATS in games with an Over/Under total of 50 or more points. |
|||||||
09-11-22 | Steelers +7 v. Bengals | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 68 h 33 m | Show |
AFC Game of the Week Rating: 4 Units Steeler head coach, Mike Tomlin makes winning division games a priority, going 65-29-1 in his career – including 10-4-1 in first division contests of the season. Additionally, playing against NFL any division road team not favored by 8 or more points in Game One of the season if they lost in the Super Bowl game last season is a perfect 11-0 ATS since 1988. |
|||||||
09-08-22 | Bills v. Rams +2.5 | Top | 31-10 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 17 m | Show |
Thursday Blowout Rating: 4 Units Rams are 5-0 SUATS Game One of the season the last five years, while head coach Sean McVay is 13-2 SU and 11-4 ATS during the first three games of the season in his NFL career, including 7-1 SUATS at home. With public support overflowing for the Bills, we consider that fact that defending Super Bowl champions are 5-0 ATS as home dogs during the first six games of the season since 1980. |
|||||||
01-15-22 | Patriots v. Bills -4 | Top | 17-47 | Win | 100 | 83 h 49 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Unit Wild Card Game of the Week Rest assured, the Bills have been chewing nails since losing to Kansas City in the AFC title game last season. Not only have they played their way back to the postseason this year, they’ll take the field today knowing that playoff home teams who fell in their conference title game the previous season are 44-8 SU and 34-16-2 ATS overall, including 26-3 SU and 21-6-2 ATS when coming off a win of 6-plus points. Yes, we realize that six of their victories this season have come against teams that were using a backup quarterback, but after its 7-0 SUATS winning skein, New England enters just 1-3 SUATS in its last four contests while nearly mirroring its dismal 1-4 start to begin the season. The Pats where out-yarded -406 net yards against five fellow bowl teams this season, while the Bills outs tatted six playoff teams to the tune of +325 net yards. In fact, consider that NFL playoff home favorites who were in the playoffs the previous season are 15-3 SU and 14-5 ATS since 1996 when facing a foe coming off a loss, including 6-0 ATS when coming off a loss of more than 8 points. |
|||||||
01-09-22 | Chargers v. Raiders +3 | Top | 32-35 | Win | 100 | 55 h 18 m | Show |
Rating: 4 UnitSNF Game of the Week The Chargers’ Achilles heel has been its scoring defense in late stages of the game, as the 10.3 PPG they surrender in the 4Q of games is the worst in the league. However, Vegas is the worst team in the league in Penalty Yards Per Game which means nothing surprises us in this prime time playoff eliminator. In a game of back-and-forth possibilities, we settle on this beauty that winning division home dogs of 3 or fewer points seeking revenge in their final game of the season are 11-5 SU and 12-4 ATS since 1980. In addition, playing on any division home dog with a winning record coming off a SU non-division NFL road win as a dog of 4 or more points if they are facing an opponent that has won 21 or fewer of its last 32 overall games is a perfect 7-0 ATS since 1980. That should put the Raiders in the playoffs. |
|||||||
01-09-22 | 49ers +4.5 v. Rams | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 98 h 9 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit NFC Play of the Day Niners need either a win or a loss by the Saints, and they are in the playoffs as a wild card. Frisco upended Los Angeles, 31-10, as a 3.5-point home dog back in November, and has now won and covered each of the past three meetings in this series. After stumbling out of the gate 3-5 during the first half of the season, Kyle Shanahan’s troops have found their groove going 6-2 SUATS and 7-1 ITS (In The Stats) in their previous eight games. With the horned heads just 3-9 ATS at home when coming off consecutive road contests, and the 49ers sporting a 28-12 SU and 28-10-2 ATS record as a visitor in this series, the points become the play today. To cap it off, consider that the Rams are 1-7 SUATS at home in division games when coming off consecutive away wins, including 0-6 SUATS the last six. |
|||||||
01-09-22 | Bengals +4.5 v. Browns | Top | 16-21 | Loss | -110 | 95 h 54 m | Show |
Rating: 6 Unit AFC Game of the Month Cincinnati comes into this one celebrating their first playoff berth, division title, and season of double-digit wins since 2015. QB Joe Burrow passed for 446 yards and four TDs, giving him 971 yards and eight TDs, and zero interceptions over the past two weeks. And Burrow to Ja’Marr Chase has become the NFL ‘s most dangerous connection. With the Browns averaging a mere 4.4 PPG during the 4Q this season – only Atlanta was worse – look for the Bengals to avenge a 41-16 home loss suffered against Cleveland two months ago. Finally, consider that Cincinnati is 10-0 SU and 8-2 in this series when the Browns are coming off consecutive SUATS losses, including 6-0 SUATS when Cleveland owns a losing record. |
|||||||
01-02-22 | Cardinals +5.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 25-22 | Win | 100 | 102 h 12 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit NFC Play of the Day The Cowboys became the 17th different NFC East division champion in the past 17 seasons when they clinched the crown in last week’s 56-14 whipping of Washington. With it, QB Dak Prescott fi nally broke out of his slump, albeit against a poor pass defense missing lots of personnel. Prescott was nearly perfect in this game going 28-of-39 for 330 yards and four touchdowns. He’ll need a repeat performance today, though, especially with ‘Zona 6-1 SUATS away this season. Consider that Dallas is 5-12 SU and 2-15 ATS at home the last 11 years without rest versus .666 or greater conference opponents, including 0-12 ATS in games with an Over/Under total of fewer than 51 points |
|||||||
01-02-22 | Dolphins +4 v. Titans | Top | 3-34 | Loss | -110 | 99 h 38 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Unit AFC Game of the Week Miami’s 21-3 win over New Orleans Monday Night was more lopsided than the final score indicated, as the Dolphins outgained the Saints, 259-164, and averaged 1.2 more yards per play. With it, they currently hold down the seventh seed in the AFC playoff picture after Monday night’s win, with two more games left to prove they’re deserving of a postseason berth. With last week’s home underdog win over San Francisco, Tennessee enters today’s fray as the No. 2 overall seed in the AFC playoff picture. After tossing for only 40 yards in the first half against San Francisco last week, Titans’ QB Ryan Tannehill came alive after the break finishing up 22-of-29 for 209 yards and a touchdown. Still, they are just 1-6 ATS as non-division home chalk of 5 or fewer points, while Miami is 17-4 ATS as non-division road dogs of 5 or fewer points. Consider that NFL dogs riding a 7-game-exact win streak are 13-3 ATS since 2002, including 12-1 ATS when coming off a non-division victory. |
|||||||
12-27-21 | Dolphins +3 v. Saints | Top | 20-3 | Win | 100 | 129 h 8 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit NFL Play of the Day The Dolphins have won yardage in each of their last five games, while surrendering just 272 YPG throughout the course of its current six-game win skein. On the flip side, the Saints did the impossible when they blanked Tom Brady and the defending Super Bowl champion Bucs in Tampa Bay last week. And for that they figure to pay a price today. For openers, New Orleans is 1-9-1 ATS home versus AFC opponents. In the 9-0 victory last week, only one Saint registered more than 17 receiving yards. That was Marquez Callaway, who had a big game. He caught six of his nine targets for 112 yards. Look for New Orleans and its 1-9-1 ATS record as an AFC host to take a hit tonight. The Clincher: Teams who shut out the defending Super Bowl champions in a win of 7 or more points are 0-3 SUATS since 1980 their next game. |
|||||||
12-25-21 | Colts +1 v. Cardinals | Top | 22-16 | Win | 100 | 81 h 17 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Unit Inter-Conference Game of the Week Indianapolis reversed a 0-3 start into the No. 5 seed in the current AFC playoff chase thanks to 4-1 SUATS skein after taking on the latest ‘Hard Knocks II’ role Thanksgiving Week, while snapping New England’s season best 7-game win streak last week. And they did it in spite of QB Carson Wentz’s immense struggles as potential league MVP RB Jonathan Taylor dashed for 170 yards on 29 attempts, including a 67-yard scamper for a score. Given head coach Frank Reich’s 10-4 SU mark from Game Thirteen out during the regular season, and Indy’s 8-3 SUATS all time mark against NFC West foes coming off consecutive losses, the points become the play here today. Also consider that Cardinals QB Kyler Murray is 3-8 SUATS at home in his NFL career versus winning foes, including 0-8 SUATS versus foes with at least one loss on the season. To cap it all off, consider that playing against any regular season NFL home pick or favorite on Saturday coming off a loss if they lost to the spread by 17 or more points in the loss is a perfect 14-0 ATS since 1980. |
|||||||
12-19-21 | Packers v. Ravens +7 | Top | 31-30 | Win | 100 | 29 h 21 m | Show |
Rating: 4 UnitNFL Upset of the Day The suddenly listless Ravens have not scored an offensive touchdown in the first quarter in each of their last 7 games, but if you saw the second half of the Ravens-Browns contest, you’ll know why we think they’ve still got some fight left. That was when backup QB Tyler Huntley sparked Baltimore to a near-win at Cleveland, engineering a 19-point second half comeback that fell two-points short in the Ravens’ 24-22 loss at the Dawg Pound. Consider as well that playing on any NFL home dog of more than 3 points during the second-half of the season with a winning record if they were a playoff team last season that is not coming off a loss of 13 or more points and they are facing an opponent with at least one loss on the season who is coming off a win of 14 or more points is a perfect 11-0 ATS since 1980. |
|||||||
12-18-21 | Patriots +2.5 v. Colts | Top | 17-27 | Loss | -110 | 78 h 28 m | Show |
Rating: 5 UnitNFL Saturday Game of the Month Bill Belichick is 6-2 SUATS riding a 7-game winning streak, including 4-0 SUATS versus sub .700 foes. He’s also 20-5 on Saturdays, including 10-2 SU and 8-3-1 ATS during the regular season, and 8-2 ATS as a dog versus the Colts with New England, including 5-0 ATS in games in which Indy owns a sub .777 win percentage. Toss in his sterling 12-2 SUATS record as a visitor when playing with rest and his squad suddenly poses a major problem for the born-again Colts. Meanwhile, Indy has forgotten how win in this series, going just 13-34 SU and 14-32-1 ATS overall since 1987, including 2-17 ATS as a favorite, and 0-4 ATS in games in which the Pats own the better record. We don’t see anything here being broke, and we’re not about to fix it. Finally, consider that New England head coach Bill Belichick is a sterling 12-2 SUATS record as a visitor when playing with rest, including 11-0 SUATS when facing sub .666 opponents. |
|||||||
12-16-21 | Chiefs v. Chargers +3 | Top | 34-28 | Loss | -104 | 31 h 40 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit Prime Time Game of the Week QB Patrick Mahomes is just 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS in this series in games in which the Bolts sport a .500 or greater record, while Andy Reid brings a 2-4 SUATS career record on Thursdays into this contest when facing division foes. On the flip side, the Chargers are 6-2 SU and 8-0 ATS on Thursdays from Game Eleven out. |
|||||||
12-12-21 | 49ers +1 v. Bengals | Top | 26-23 | Win | 100 | 102 h 18 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit - Inter-Conference Play of the Day Kyle Shanahan has developed a broad home-road dichotomy, where he is 22-16 ATS away as opposed to 16-22-1 ATS at home with San Francisco (more on that below). Included in those numbers is a glitzy 7-2 ATS record on the AFC road, including 6-0 ATS the last six contests. Coupled with Cincy’s 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS mark under Zac Taylor in games against the NFC West, it paints an imposing picture for the suddenly fractured Bengals. Consider that Shanahan is 11-2 ATS away in non-division games against foes coming off a loss, including 6-0 SUATS the last six games. |
|||||||
12-12-21 | Bills +3.5 v. Bucs | Top | 27-33 | Loss | -110 | 102 h 14 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Unit NFL Game of the Week Tampa sits atop the NFC South with a four-game lead over all three of their other division rivals. In addition, Buffalo enters on an 8-1-1 ATS win skein on the non-conference road as well as 5-1 SU and 4-1-1 ATS in games after coming off a SU favorite Monday Night loss. Yes, Tommy Seven Rings is 31-3 all-tie against Buffalo, but in each of those wins he had The Hoodie whispering in his ear. FYI: He is only 2-2 ATS against Buffalo when the Bills sport a .636 or greater win percentage. Moving to the here and now, though, you may be shocked to learn that Brady is 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS during the regular season with the Bucs versus .636 or greater opponents. To cap it off, consider that Tom Brady is 0-5 SUATS as a favorite during the regular season versus .636 or greater foes with Tampa Bay. |
|||||||
12-05-21 | Washington Football Team v. Raiders -1 | Top | 17-15 | Loss | -109 | 31 h 32 m | Show |
5* Inter-Conference Game of the Week Setting the table for the Raiders, is the fact that home teams coming off a Turkey Day win are 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS since 1990 when hosting sub .666 foes off win. With the sinners in a three-way tie for second-place in the AFC West, one game behind Kansas City, and currently 5-1 ATS at home coming off a pair of previous home losses – they lost to Cincinnati and Kansas City at Allegiant Stadium last month – it’s time to hand it off to The Clincher: NFL teams coming off a SU underdog win on Thursday are 5-1 SU and 6-0-1 ATS since 1990 versus a foe coming off a Monday Night game. |
|||||||
12-05-21 | Chargers +3 v. Bengals | Top | 41-22 | Win | 100 | 28 h 33 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit 4* AFC Play of the Day While on paper it appears the Chargers are wobbling at 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS since Bye week, they are actually 4-1 ITS (In The Stats) in those games. They are also 6-1-1 ATS away when coming off an away game. Cincinnati QB Joe Burrow appears to be leading the Bengals’ resurgence, yet he is just 2-6 ATS in games when coming off a win, including 0-4 SUATS against no-division foes. And then there is Cinci’s 2-11 SUATS ledger when coming off a pair of wins-exact. Speaking of which, we sew up the deal with The clincher: Cincinnati is 3-9 ATS since 1980 when coming off consecutive wins after facing Pittsburgh, including 0-5 SUATS in non-division games. |
|||||||
12-05-21 | Cardinals v. Bears +7.5 | Top | 33-22 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 1 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Unit 5* NFL Upset of the Week Chicago has out yarded each of its last three opponents, while holding all three foes to less than 300 yards. And then there is this from the WOM (Well Oiled Machine): Game Twelve NFL home teams who were in the playoffs the previous season are 6-1 SUATS since 1990 against opponents coming off a Bye week. And then there is a cold weather team hosting a warm weather team in December. Given Arizona’s 5-13 SU and 6-11-1 ATS all-time mark on the NFC North road. The clincher: Playing Against any .400 or greater NFL Road Favorite from Game Nine out who allows 4.6 or more yards Per Rush if the beat the spread by more than 6 points and scored 27 or fewer points in its last game, if they are facing a .444 or less opponent that averages 3.5 or more Yards Per Rush is a perfect 22-0 ATS since 1980. |
|||||||
11-28-21 | Rams -1 v. Packers | Top | 28-36 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 29 m | Show |
NFL Inter-Conference Game of the Week Head coach Sean McVay enters this game knowing he is 4-1 SUATS when coming off consecutive losses, including 3-0 SUATS versus foes coming off a loss. And speaking of QB dings, despite battling a toe injury, and losing left tackle Elgton Jenkins to injury, Rodgers went 23-of-33 for 385 yards and four touchdowns in last week’s loss at Minnesota, snapping the league’s longest SUATS win skein at 9 this season. The big concern for Rams’ backers is Rodgers’ 41-21-1 ATS career record in games when the Packers are coming off a loss. However, it waters down to 13-11 ATS when he is at home in games with both teams coming off a loss. Cap it off my knowing that playing on any NFL team coming off consecutive SU favorite losses, the last an ATS loss by 12 or more points, if they were a playoff team last year and they are facing a .700 or better opponent is 16-0 ATS since 2006 |
|||||||
11-28-21 | Titans +7 v. Patriots | Top | 13-36 | Loss | -110 | 90 h 3 m | Show |
Rating: 4 UnitNFL Play of the Day A red-faced Ryan Tannehill was intercepted 4 times (3 times in the 4Q) in last week’s humiliating loss to Houston as the Titans were flagged for looking past the Texans in favor of today’s contest. Our QB League database notes that Tannehill is 20-12 SU and 22-10 ATS against foes coming off a double-digit win, including 19-7 ATS as a dog. Note that NFL road dogs coming off a SU loss as a double-digit favorite are 10-4 SU and 12-2 ATS when taking on a foe coming off a win of 14 or more points. The clincher: Tennessee is 10-5 SU and 11-4 ATS against foes coming off a double-digit win under head coach Mike Vrabel, including 5-0 SUATS this season. |
|||||||
11-28-21 | Steelers +4.5 v. Bengals | Top | 10-41 | Loss | -110 | 90 h 57 m | Show |
Rating: 5 UnitDivisional Game of the Week The Steelers are 19-5 SU and 15-8-1 ATS the last 24 games in this series. They are also 9-2 SUATS away in games in which Cincinnati sports the better record, including 5-0 SUATS when the Black and Gold arrives off a SUATS loss. And making things juicier, when Pittsburgh is coming off a loss and facing Cincinnati coming off a win, the Steelers stand 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS in the Queen City, including 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS as a dog. Also consider that : Pittsburgh QB Roethlisberger is 27-5-1 SU and 22-11 ATS away in Ohio at Cincinnati and Cleveland, where he played his college ball at Miami Oh, including 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS in games in which Pittsburgh owns the lesser record. To finish it off Cincy is 3-7 ATS as a division home favorite while Pitt is 7-1 ATS as a division road dog. |
|||||||
11-21-21 | Bengals v. Raiders +1 | Top | 32-13 | Loss | -109 | 92 h 55 m | Show |
5* NFL Game of the Week The Bengals were battered, 41-16, by the Browns in a big step-up game for Cincinnati as they enter this contest reeling with a 0-2 SUATS and ITS (In The Stats) ledger, as the magical elixir that was a 5-2 SUATS start to the season has disappeared. Sure, they may be coming in with a week of rest, but the fact of the matter is the black cats are 0-6 ATS when coming off a Bye as well as 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS in non-division games versus foes coming off a double-digit defeat as an underdog under head coach Zac Taylor. Consider that NFL away teams coming off one home game that was preceded by three away games are 7-17 ATS, including 1-8 SUATS versus sub .600 non-division opponents. |
|||||||
11-21-21 | Packers v. Vikings +2.5 | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 89 h 57 m | Show |
4* NFC Division Game of the Day Kirk Cousins had a fine day in leading the Vikings past the Chargers last Sunday, when he completed 25-of-37 passes for 294 yards and two touchdowns, as the Vikes moved up to the No. 8 seed position in this year’s NFL playoff picture, as they now trail the Pack by 3.5 games in the NFC North. With it, we love fading teams with huge leads in divisional matchups, especially against those that are scratching and clawing to earn a playoff berth. Green Bay’s lousy rush defense allows 4.6 Yards Per Rush, which fits like a glove into Minnesota’s 4.4 Yards Per Rush offense. Consider that Minnesota head coach Mike Zimmer is 10-4 ATS as a home dog in his NFL career, including 4-0 ATS in division games. Also playing against any .400 or greater NFL Road Favorite from Game Nine out who allows 4.6 or more yards Per Rush if the beat the spread by more than 6 points and scored 27 or fewer points in its last game, if they are facing a .444 or less opponent that averages 3.5 or more Yards Per Rush is 21-0 ATS since 1980. |
|||||||
11-14-21 | Vikings +3 v. Chargers | Top | 27-20 | Win | 100 | 93 h 57 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Unit Inter-Conference Game of the Week The Vikings went up 17-3 just prior to halftime, but some more miserable time management allowed the Ravens to score a touchdown in the final seconds before intermission (that’s on you, Mike Zimmer). Still, the much-maligned Cousins had a nice performance, despite the loss, as he went 17-of-28 for 187 yards and two passing TDs and a running touchdown. The bottom line is Minnesota’s season – and possibly Zimmer’s job – is on the line in this contest. With seven of Minny’s eight games this season having been decided by 8 or fewer points, including three overtime sessions, we’ll take a look at the fact that Minnesota is 15-5-1 ATS as a dog in non-division games when coming off a loss under Mike Zimmer, including 9-1-1 ATS versus .600 or greater opponents. |
|||||||
11-14-21 | Saints +3 v. Titans | Top | 21-23 | Win | 100 | 90 h 0 m | Show |
Rating: 4 unit NFL Mismatch of the Week New Orleans dropped 22 points on Atlanta in the 4th quarter to take the lead, after trailing by 18, then failed on a 2-point conversion to leave the door open for a field goal win by the Falcons. That’s exactly what happened, so we expect to see a frustrated bunch of Saints in Music City this afternoon, taking it out on a Tennessee team that suddenly looks unbeatable. We know better. The visiting squad in this series has cashed four straight tickets, and the chest-puffing Titans have collapsed after rumbling with the Rams, going 1-6 ATS of late. Also consider that NFL teams coming off four consecutive underdog wins in a row are 2-5 SU and 1-5-1 ATS since 1999 as a favorite the following game. |
|||||||
11-14-21 | Lions +9 v. Steelers | Top | 16-16 | Win | 100 | 47 h 53 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Unit NFL Upset of the Week The plain truth is that the Steelers’ Monday Night win over Chicago featured one of the worst-officiated games we have ever seen. The officials seemingly did everything in their power to decide this outcome. The greatest offense by the officials occurred when the Bears seemingly forced a punt in the fourth quarter. Cassius Marsh sacked Roethlisberger on third down, but Marsh was flagged for taunting – even though he only stared at Pittsburgh’s bench. He didn’t even say anything! Yet, the flag was thrown. Chances are the same crew won’t be working this game, which could be bad news for Detroit. No problem, we say, as the Lions are a hearty 8-1 ATS with rest, while Aged Beef Ben and his charges have gone 2-5 ATS after Monday Nighters. The win-starved Lions should want this more, and if Roethlisberger is as tired as he looked on Monday, Detroit has a great opportunity to get off the 0-8 schneid. Also consider that playing on any winless NFL with rest from Game Five out team versus a .500 or greater opponent if the opponent is not coming off a double-digit win is 13-0 ATS since 1980. |
|||||||
11-07-21 | Broncos +10 v. Cowboys | Top | 30-16 | Win | 100 | 93 h 8 m | Show |
Rating: 4 UnitInter-Conference Play of the Day For what it’s worth, the most lucrative situation in the NFL this year has been that of road dogs coming off a win of 6 or more points. That’s because these dogs are 12-6 SU and 15-3 ATS season to date. Sure, the resurgent Cowboys are 3-0 ATS at home this year, but they’re still dragging a 3-10 ATS log as non-division home favorites of 10 or fewer points. Will Prescott make it back? Or will Rush be asked to save the day again? We’re ambivalent since we’re backing a Broncos team that’s gone 5-0 ATS as non-division road dogs of 5 or more points. Consider that Denver QB Teddy Bridgewater is 23-5 ATS away as an NFL starter, including 10-0 ATS versus winning opponents. |
|||||||
11-07-21 | Patriots v. Panthers +3.5 | Top | 24-6 | Loss | -106 | 92 h 46 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Unit NFL Game of the Week Although Panthers head coach Matt Rhule has been taking a lot of heat this year, he’s still 41-21 ATS as a dog in his CFB and NFL careers, plus he’s 4-1 ATS as a dog with the Panthers against foes coming off consecutive wins. The Pats are just 1-4 ITS (In The Stats) in their last five games, so with or without Darnold behind center, we can’t wait to capitalize on the fact that Pats head coach Bill Belichick is 9-12 SUATS away in games when coming off a SU underdog win, including 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS as a favorite. |
|||||||
11-07-21 | Falcons +6.5 v. Saints | Top | 27-25 | Win | 100 | 27 h 19 m | Show |
Rating: 6 Unit Upset of the Year Teams who upset the defending Super Bowl champion as a dog are just 26-36 SU and 24-37-1 ATS versus division foes the following game, including 19-36 SUATS when not favored by 7 or more points. So now the Saints are 5-2 and hoping to have Winston back and healthy to face Brady and the Bucs when it really counts – in January. In addition, the visiting team is 4-2 SUATS of late in this series. Toss in the “beat the Super Bowl champ” letdown factor, as teams in division game who upset the defending champs are just 15-25 SU and13-27 ATS since 1990. The clincher: playing on any .400 or greater NFL division dog playing with triple revenge is 12-0 ATS since 1980. . |
|||||||
10-31-21 | Bucs v. Saints +5.5 | Top | 27-36 | Win | 100 | 98 h 44 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Unit NFL Game of the Week The Brady numbers become dizzying, and at some point we anticipate seeing some degree of regression. It actually happened in his final season with New England when he concluded the season with a career-low 55.7 QBR. But the move to Tampa was akin to finding the Fountain of Youth. Today, though, he takes on a team he knocked out of the NFC playoffs last season, and for that, we expect him to pay the piper. For openers, the Saints are 10-3-1 ATS as home dogs dating back to 2006, including 6-1-1 ATS with head coach Sean Payton. The Bourbon Street gang is also 5-0 SUATS in its last five regular season meetings with the Bucs. And if that’s not enough, consider that Payton is an annuity when it comes to exacting revenge in division games, going 23-12 SU and 24-11 ATS, including 18-2 ATS as a favorite or dog. |
|||||||
10-28-21 | Packers +6.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 30 h 50 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit TNF Game of the Week The Cardinals, the league’s sole unbeaten team, and currently 7-0 for the first time since 1974 under head coach Don Coryell (why isn’t he in the NFL HOF?). As always, in matters of great importance like this game, we note the Packers are 5-0 ATS versus undefeated NFC West opponents. On the flip side, NFL 7-0 favorites are 0-3 SUATS in Game Eight versus .700 or greater non-division opponents since 1980, while Arizona QB Murray is 1-5 ATS as a non-division home favorite of fewer than 7 points. In conclusion, take the points and relax. Also consider that Green Bay QB Rodgers is 10-4 SU and 10-3-1 ATS on Thursdays, including 6-0 SUATS versus foes coming off a win. |
|||||||
10-24-21 | Colts v. 49ers -4 | Top | 30-18 | Loss | -109 | 98 h 0 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Unit SNF Game of the Month The fact of the matter is the Colts’ two wins this season have come against the likes of Houston and Miami, 2-10 combined on the year with 10 successive losses in a row. Enter the nasty Niners, coming off a bye week on a three game |
|||||||
10-24-21 | Chiefs v. Titans +5.5 | Top | 3-27 | Win | 100 | 91 h 44 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit NFL Play of the Day McDermott was going for the win, and given how well Tennessee was moving the chains in the second half, he likely would’ve lost in overtime had the Titans won the coin toss. He was taking matters into his own hands. His own hands failed him, but the gutsy call should be admired because many NFL coaches are too conservative. With it all, consider that defending Super Bowl losers are 2-12 ATS as non-division favorites when facing an opponent coming off a SU underdog win, including 1-10-2 ATS when facing a foe with revenge. |
|||||||
10-18-21 | Bills v. Titans +6 | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 77 h 41 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Unit MNF Game of the Month Playing on (Tennessee) any NFL home dog of more than 3 points with a winning record if they were a playoff team last season that is not coming off a loss of 13 or more points and did not cover its last game by 20 or more points if they are facing an opponent coming off an ATS win of 7 or more points is 14-0 ATS since 1980. |
|||||||
10-17-21 | Cowboys v. Patriots +4 | Top | 35-29 | Loss | -120 | 96 h 8 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit NFL Upset of the Week Today, the Pats return home to host Dallas, one of the hottest teams in the league at 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS. It’s where The Hoodie is 155-41 SU and 110-78-8 ATS in his career with New England, including 14-4-1 ATS when taking points. The Cowboys enter after taking down an injury-laden Giants squad at home last week, carrying a 9-21-1 ATS mark in non-division duels in games after knocking off New York, including 0-6-1 ATS the last seven games. Bill Belichick is 21-7 SU in his career against teams from the NFC East, including 3-0-1 ATS as a dog. He is also 6-0 SU versus the Dallas Cowboys. The Clincher: Playing against any NFL non-division road favorite of more than |
|||||||
10-17-21 | Cardinals v. Browns -2.5 | Top | 37-14 | Loss | -135 | 96 h 52 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Unit NFL Game of the Week The Browns lost to the Chargers on Sunday, even though they scored more than 40 points and didn’t turn the ball over a single time, there had been 401 instances in the Super Bowl era where a team had accomplished both of those feats, and those teams combined to go 401-0. However, the Browns ended that improbable 401-game winning streak that had gone on for more than 50 years. Consider that 6-0 NFL teams in Game Seven are 1-9 SUATS when facing an opponent coming off a SUATS loss, including 0-7 ATS if not favored by 12 or more points. |
|||||||
10-10-21 | Bills +3 v. Chiefs | Top | 38-20 | Win | 100 | 99 h 13 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit SNF Game of the Month While the defensive genius of Buffalo head coach Sean McDermott is a given, he continues to fly under the radar in games when coming off high-scoring efforts, going 8-1 SUATS in his career in games after the Bills tally 35 or more points in their previous contest. He is also 6-1 SUATS with Buffalo in matchups of winning teams when his troops own the higher win percentage. With that, we turn things over to The clincher: Buffalo QB Josh Allen is 12-1 SU and 10-2-1 ATS in his NFL career against opponents coming off a SUATS win, including 7-0 SUATS when the Bills own a greater than .666 win percentage. |
|||||||
10-10-21 | 49ers +5.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 10-17 | Loss | -110 | 95 h 16 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Unit NFL Game of the Week The Niners enter off a pair of SU favorite losses, while the host Cardinals arrive off last week’s underdog win against the Rams. Because of it, the bottom line is this game is packed with value. Remember, the preseason line on this game at the Westgate Super Book was “pick”, so it’s been adjusted more than a variable rate mortgage loan. The Clincher: San Francisco is 12-3 SU and 11-3-1 ATS when coming off consecutive SU losses as a favorite, including 5-0 SUATS versus .800 or greater opponents. Playing against any .500 or greater NFL division favorite coming off consecutive wins, the last as a dog (Arizona), versus an opponent coming off consecutive losses, each as a favorite, if the Over/Under total in this game is more than 41 points is 14-0 ATS since 1980. |
|||||||
10-03-21 | Ravens v. Broncos | Top | 23-7 | Loss | -110 | 79 h 44 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Units Denver stands 22-10 SUATS at home versus opponents coming off consecutive wins, including 15-5 SUATS in non-division contests. Then there’s the red-hot Bridgewater, who is 21-6 ATS when his team is coming off a win, including 15-2 ATS versus non-division foes. Consider that 3-0 teams in the NFL are 15-1 ATS in Game Four of the season when hosting a non-division opponent. |
|||||||
10-03-21 | Steelers +7 v. Packers | Top | 17-27 | Loss | -120 | 79 h 40 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Units The Steelers come into this one 7-1 ATS as dogs of more than 3 points, and 6-1 ATS in their last seven in non-conference road games. The fact that HC Tomlin is at his best when facing quality opponents who own a .666 or greater record, going 37-13-2 ATS when the foe is coming off back-to-back wins, including 20-6-2 ATS as a dog. Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger is 37-21-3 ATS as a dog, including 16-5 SU and 17-3-1 ATS away against foes coming off consecutive wins. |
|||||||
10-03-21 | Panthers +4.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 28-36 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 9 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Units Playing against any NFL team with a winning record coming off a Monday Night divisional win and cover if they are facing a .750 or greater opponents coming off a SUATS win of more than 3 points is 12-0 ATS since 1980. In addition, Rhule 36-13 ATS away and 40-19 ATS as a dog in his combined college and NFL head coaching careers, and Dallas a dismal 0-8 SUATS at home in games after coming off a Monday night game |
|||||||
09-26-21 | Bucs v. Rams +1.5 | Top | 24-34 | Win | 100 | 54 h 29 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Units The revitalized Rams found their magic elixir in QB Matthew Stafford, whose 127.0 QB rating is nearly 40 points above his career average. The horned heads are 7-1 ATS in this series as well as 5-1 ATS in the first of consecutive home games. On the other side of the field Tampa, who has yet to win the stats this season, is 1-7 ATS in Game Three of the season, as well as 1-4 ATS |
|||||||
09-13-21 | Ravens v. Raiders +4 | Top | 27-33 | Win | 100 | 100 h 60 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Units Playing three road games in a row is always tough, as since 2014, sixteen other teams have been in that same situation: playing their last two preseason games on the road and then opening the regular season on the road. Those sixteen teams are 6-10 SU and 5-10-1 ATS in Week One, including 1-9 SU and 1-8-1 ATS if they failed to make the postseason the previous year. Both Baltimore and Jacksonville played their last two preseason games on the road, and then open the season on the road. That makes their Week One game their third road game in a row. MNF favorites dip to 4-12 SU and 1-15 ATS when laying less than 6 points in a game in which the Over/Under total is set at 40 or more points |
|||||||
09-20-20 | Ravens -7 v. Texans | Top | 33-16 | Win | 100 | 51 h 53 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NFL Play of the Day Quite a pair of killers in which the Texans open the season (Chiefs & Ravens). Looked great in their opening 80-yard drive of the season, & stayed with KC, stat wise (9-yard deficit). That wasn't the case when these 2 met last season, as the Ravens posted a 491-232 yard edge in that 41-7 wipeout. Thirteen straight regular season wins for the Ravens (longest active streak in league). Baltimore is in off another opening drive TD (had 8 last year), with Jackson posting 7th game with 3+ TD passes & no picks since last year |
|||||||
10-21-18 | Rams -9 v. 49ers | Top | 39-10 | Win | 100 | 26 h 52 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Unit NFL Game of the Year Battle of two young mastermind coaches in Shanahan and McVay. McVay definitely has the edge with a healthy QB. Hopefully, Garoppolo gets back to 100% next year, because this could be the rivalry that it was back in the '80s & '90s. Third straight road game for the Rams, having slipped by the Seahawks & Broncos (33-31 & 23-20). No question that L.A. is the NFL's premier ball-mover, behind Goff (1,928 passing yards) & Gurley (career-high 208 rushing yards last week), but Rams allowing 27.3 ppg in their last 3 outings. Niner "D" is just about at that level, so we'll take the better "O" here. |
|||||||
12-27-15 | Panthers -6.5 v. Falcons | Top | 13-20 | Loss | -103 | 25 h 44 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit NFL Game of the Week Quick revenge shot for Falcons, who were taken apart, 38-0, just 2 weeks ago, along with a 424-230 yard deficit. At least Atlanta save some face, by snapping 0-6 SU and 0-9 ATS slides (1st cover since Oct 4) in 23-17 win over Jags. Still -79 points ATS last 10 games, and 0-5 ATS in division play. Panther magic continues, although blowing 35-28 lead in 3rd was a bit scary. Cam simply superb: 5 touchdown passes in 3-of-5 tilts (19 in those 3). Now 18 straight regular season wins. Falcs 1-15 ATS as underdogs of greater than 3 points off 2 road games |
|||||||
12-27-15 | Steelers -10 v. Ravens | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 37 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NFL Play of the Day - It has all fallen apart for the Ravens, who got off to that horrid 0-3 and 1-6 start. At least they've been competitive at home, with first 5 games decided by 4 points or less SU. That is until the last 2 weeks, namely 35-6 and 34-14 losses to smoking Seahawks and Chiefs. First time in their 20-year history, that the Ravens have dropped 5 home games. And it hardly gets any easier, as Pittsburgh not only finished last weeks game with Denver on a 24-0 run, but has topped 29 points in its last 6 games. Ben is now at 337 passing yards per game. No stopping the Steelers now. |