Rating: 2 Units

The Bucks will aim to be the first team since the 2006 Miami Heat to go down 0-2 in the NBA Finals and win the next four games. The rising play of Giannis Antetokounmpo continues to go to new heights. Expect the Suns' letdown over Game 4’s final 90 seconds and squandering of a 16-point, first-quarter lead in Game 5 to haunt them. Look for Milwaukee to close out the NBA season with a championship.

Rating: 2 Units

Jae Crowder and Deandre Ayton were a combined 14 for 18 from the floor in Game 3 and the Suns still lost. Devin Booker was clearly off of his game, well-defended by Milwaukee. Booker has responded recently after bad games. Leading their series 2-0 against the Clippers, Phoenix was beaten by 14 in L.A. when Booker went 5 for 21 from the floor. In the next game, Booker led both teams in scoring with 25 in the 4-point Phoenix road win. Even with that history, Phoenix has to make some major adjustments. They were casual in the last game and when Ayton was in foul trouble, Giannis Antetokounmpo did whatever he wanted on the floor. Milwaukee took the first-quarter punch that the Suns delivered on Sunday and then they won the middle quarters by a total of 25 points. Jrue Holiday and P.J. Tucker were picking up the Phoenix guards early and often and that made the Suns desperate to fight the shot clock. The biggest question coming into this series was the health of Giannis. Well, all he did was put up 83 points and 25 boards in the last 2 games. Khris Middleton has yet to have an explosive game and when he plays well and scores, it opens it up for the entire squad. In Games 1 and 2 of the Bucks’ four playoff series this season, Middleton averaged 18 points, shot it at 38% from the floor and 29% from deep. In Games 3 and beyond this post season, Middleton has shot 46% from the field, 38% from beyond the arc and has averaged 26 points in 12 games. Reserve guard Bryn Forbes is also due to heat up. His shot has been off a lot but he has 5 double-figure games in this post season, including a pair of 22-point games vs. Miami. If the Bucks can again continue to go to the rack and force Ayton into foul trouble, Phoenix will once again be extremely vulnerable in the paint. Milwaukee was not only a +14 in points in the paint in the last game but they were a +10 in fast-break points.

Rating: 2 Units

Early money has come in on the Bucks and I agree with it. They already have overcome a 2-0 series deficit in the playoffs, against Brooklyn, so the belief is there. Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday aren't going to combine for 12-of-37 shooting in Milwaukee, like they did in Game 2 in Phoenix. After two full days of rest, they'll bounce back in front of their raucous fans and give Giannis Antetokounmpo the help he needs. Look for Milwaukee, with its season on the line, to dominate inside and try to get DeAndre Ayton in foul trouble. The Suns are thin inside with Dario Saric and Torrey Craig injured.

Rating: 2 Units

These series usually come down to adjustments as the games continue. Milwaukee Coach Budenholzer failed to make any defensive adjustment for a sustained period of time in Game One. The Suns ate up Brook Lopez when he was forced to switch and attempt to guard either Devin Booker or Chris Paul. Offensively Lopez shot it well and was a disrupter in the paint but he was clearly exposed on D. You know that Giannis Antetokounmpo is not right when 3 of the Milwaukee starters had more shot attempts. Giannis played with heart but for the most part the explosiveness was not there. Listening to Giannis after the game, it became evident that the injury was on his mind: “The medical staff cleared me to play and out there I had my balance. Thought my knee was stable…at the end of the day, I’m out there...I can run. I can jump. I can set screens. I can rebound the ball. I can do stuff.” The ball boy can set screens, rebound in shoot arounds and do stuff. Giannis doesn’t sound like he thinks he can dominate games like he has in the past. Khris Middleton played well for the Bucks, clearly was the prime mover on offense and he was he was the aggressor even when Giannis was open. Dario Saric is gone with a torn ACL and the Suns are already light with big men. Frank  Kaminsky could get more minutes and the ‘Tank’ has averaged double figures in 3 of his 6 years in the league and has shot it at 35% from beyond the arc in his career. The Suns will likely again rely on small ball and if Milwaukee doesn’t devise a way to keep Deandre Ayton off the glass, they will again be in trouble. Ayton was a vacuum cleaner off the glass in Game One. He only missed 2 shots from the field and was perfect from the free-throw line. Basically the Suns held Milwaukee in check as far as transition is concerned and Phoenix pushed the ball, something Chris Paul talked about after the game. Milwaukee was 56% from the charity stripe, Phoenix was 25 for 26 when they got free shots at the line. That could be the key to the entire series.

Rating: 2 Units

This is a fairly quick turnaround for the Bucks against the fully-healthy Suns. The home team in Game 1 of the NBA Finals has won seven straight by an average of 13.8 points. In addition, the home team is 15-1 straight-up in the last 16 NBA Finals openers. This likely won't be a quick series, but in Game 1, I expect the Bucks to have significant difficulty adjusting. They got every shot they wanted against the Hawks' porous defense, and now they're facing a rested Suns team that ranked seventh in defensive efficiency.

Rating: 2 Units

Several Atlanta players produced efficient performances on Sunday and they were up a bucket with 12 minutes to play. One of the turning points occurred when Milwaukee was able to keep Trae Young off the free-throw line. He took 12 free throws in the Game One Hawks win but only was on the charity stripe 6 times on Sunday. Young was extremely unlucky. He stepped on the ref Sean Wright’s foot late in the third quarter and although he came back, he was not right. Bogdan Bogdanovic is playing with a lot of heart for Atlanta but he is just not himself, either. He was only 3 for 16 from the floor in Game Three and he must be attacked by the Bucks when Milwaukee is on offense. Bogdan was 2 for 11 from beyond the arc on Sunday (he shot the long ball at 44%, regular season). He is clearly hampered. An MRI Monday revealed a bone  bruise on Young’s right foot. He will in all likelihood play but his blow-by speed, which allows him to shoot that pretty floater, figures to be affected. Milwaukee was a +15 in rebounds in the last game and a +22 in points in the paint. Giannis Antetokounmpo has adjusted his game and has just been  relentless going to the rack. He only took 2 shots from downtown on Sunday and that is playing to the strength of his game. Bobby Portis gave Milwaukee a huge boost off the bench in the last game, which figures to continue. Khris Middleton showed up and scored 20 of his 38 points in the fourth quarter Sunday. For all the talk about the free-throw woes of Giannis, Atlanta was worse percentage-wise from the charity stripe on Sunday. The Hawks just have no answer for Giannis.

Rating: 2 Units

If L.A. was at full force, that being with a willing and able Kawhi Leonard on the court and a healthy Marcus Morris, they would still be holding out hope that they can win this series. Morris is clearly not himself and he is coming off a 2 for 8 performance in the loss on Saturday. Kawhi has yet to play in this series and even if he does miraculously return, will he be the Kawhi that can dominate games? Probably not. Losing Kawhi is the equivalent of losing Kevin Durant or Giannis Antetokounmpo. Game Four was an ugly one. L.A. was  only 5 for 31 from deep while the Suns were not much better as they hit on only 4 of 20 from beyond the arc. The top scorers on L.A. were a combined 13 for 44 from the floor while the Suns starting guards could only hit on 14 of 44 from the field. The Clips had 15 offensive rebounds but the Suns Deandre Ayton had 9 all by his lonesome. His play was the determining factor in the win by Phoenix. Ayton has had double figure rebounds in 9 of 14 playoff  games this season including the 22-rebound outburst on Saturday. Ayton is shooting it at 71% in his 14 playoff games, is averaging 17 points and 11 rebounds. This is a lot of points to give up in an elimination game but including the playoffs this season, the Suns are 52-32-2 against the spread. During the regular season, Phoenix had the fourth best record at home at 27 and 9. They are looking to make the NBA Finals for the first time since 1993 and the near 17,000 expected to be in the stands will be going bonkers.

Rating: 2 Units

That was a nice, brisk pace they played at in Game 1, going up and down quickly and putting up shots relatively early in the clock. A lot of them didn’t go in but both the Bucks and Hawks seemed very comfortable in their offensive flows. It was “one of those nights” for three-point shooting, with Atlanta 8-for-32 and Milwaukee 8-for-36, as this league has deteriorated into a place where a guy can get a maximum contract, have many nights of 0-for-9 three-point shooting (as the Bucks’ Khris Middleton once again had on Wednesday) and not be mandated to give back any of the money for stinking up the joint, again. Then you had his teammate, Pat, Con-all-for-Naught-on, contributing 0-for-4 on treys and Brook Lopez, a seven-footer, shooting more than half of his paltry total of 7 field goal attempts from three-point range, making only 1. Kevin Huerter and John Collins, the latter a 6’10” guy, combined to be 1-for-11 on threes for Atlanta. Collins was 10-for-11 inside the arc but was determined to take some shots he couldn’t make. In losing Game 1, the Bucks continued their two-season trend of Game 1 losses or non-covers in victory. No surprise there. All of these shooting clowns on both sides are due for better results from beyond the arc but if Milwaukee chokes off Trae Young’s dribble penetration — which they switched to doing with good results during too-little, too-late time — then they should clear the point spread bar in another game we like to go Over the total.

Rating: 3 Units

Doc Rivers, the luckiest man-man-man… on the face-face-face… of the Earth-earth-earth. The 76ers’ top cheerleader, (‘OK, now, everybody rebound! Then, score a basket!’) watched gratefully as the basketball gods dished out a knee injury to knock out Atlanta’s shooting guard Bogdan Bogdanovic in the second half of Philly’s Game 6 win in which they successfully struggled to fight off elimination to tie the series 3-3. Given that he couldn’t finish the very important game, Bogdanovic’s outside shooting figures to be sorely missed in this Game 7. The Hawks never had much margin for error in this series to begin with. Their three wins have been by 4, 3 and 3 points; the losses by 16, 16 and 5. With a chance to advance on their home floor Friday night, Atlanta came up with their worst offensive game of the series scoring only 99 points. The injury to DeAndre Hunter earlier in the series was an underrated occurrence, as Hunter is a solid, two way player. Bogdanovic, a starter on a Hawks team whose starters have consistently been out-played by Philly’s starters as a group, nevertheless has played as many as 42 minutes in a game in this series. He scored 21, 14, 19 and 22 points before foul trouble limited him to 21 minutes in Game 5, and the injury took him out of Game 6 after only 29 minutes. If the Hawks’ bench is good enough to make up for his absence, or him playing at less than 100%, then we’ll be in for a surprise. It’s a Game 7 in a league where Game 7 results have overwhelmingly been “home” skewed. Ben Simmons was limited to 25 minutes with foul trouble on the road in Game 6. His defensive presence should be allowed to have a greater effect on the outcome in this situation.

Rating: 2 Units

L.A. lost 2 of the three games they played this season with Phoenix but both teams are different now. Kawhi Leonard is iffy with a knee and he has been Mr. Load Management for a while now. Phoenix has Covid issues with Chris Paul, who remained in health and safety protocols on Saturday afternoon. If Paul can’t go -- supposedly ruled out -- don’t be shocked if Devin Booker handles the ball more. If he stays as the 2 guard, Cameron Payne -- who was Ja Morant before Ja Morant became Ja Morant -- will direct the offense. The Clippers are coming off an emotional win at home vs. a banged-up Utah team. They got 39 from Terance Mann in that game, a dozen points from Patrick Beverly and they still had to win the fourth quarter by 15 points to secure the 12-point victory. If Leonard can’t go, Paul George may have to be assigned to Booker, and that could take away some of Paul’s offensive energy. Phoenix has a pair of elite defenders to try to contain George as Mikal Bridges and Jae Crowder are used to covering the other team’s top wing. Suns center Deandre Ayton has already played against and sent home Anthony Davis and Nicola Jokic. The Clippers have gone small in the middle with Frenchman Nic Batum at center and Ivica Zubac coming off the bench. If either is a tad sluggish, Ayton figures to control the glass, particularly with offensive rebounds. Ayton is shooting 72% from the floor in the playoffs. Chris Paul missed only two games this season; Phoenix won them both. In the first win the guy that started for Paul had 17 points. In the other win against the Spurs, Booker and Crowder didn’t play. Payne and Jevon Carter started at guards and combined for 38 points, 15 assists and 14 rebounds.

Rating: 2 Units

Utah came out flat in the third quarter on Wednesday and that dismal 12 minutes did them in. The Jazz were just not as aggressive as L.A. Utah had 3 more turnovers, 4 fewer steals and only one block all night long. Donovan Mitchell didn’t look to be in great shape but he should be able to shoot better than 6 for 19 from the floor. Utah really blew a huge opportunity as they lost the home-court advantage and Kawhi Leonard was not even in uniform. Mitchell is the best player on Utah and he is dealing with a serious ankle problem, Donovan: “It’s something I have to deal with, it sucks… it’s tough when you’re trying things you normally do and you see spots you can get to, but you can’t.” Paul George was determined to be engaged in every facet of the game on Wednesday and he was as he led all scorers and he had more rebounds than anybody. Reggie Jackson and Marcus Morris stepped up big time and when Morris shoots the ball well, the Clippers are usually very tough. Jackson, who has been working with L.A. assistant coach and ‘Mr. Big Shot’ Chauncey Billups, is playing with great confidence. He is shooting the long ball the best he has in his career. If you told the Clippers at the beginning of the season that they only had to win a Game 6 at home to make it to the Conference Finals, they would have thrown all their money into the pot.

Rating: 3 Units

Both of these teams have done what they had to do so far and that is win their home games. The margins of victories has been in the Clippers favor so far. Utah won both games in Salt Lake by an average of 5 points while L.A. won their two games at Staples Center by an average of 20 points. Donovan Mitchell did his best on Monday with 37 points but he did not shoot the ball particularly well. Paul George and Kawhi Leonard both got to the free-throw line for L.A. Monday and the streaky Marcus Morris was on the hot side. When Morris is hot, the Clippers roll. In the 6 post season victories by L.A. Morris has hit at 59% from deep. In the 5 losses in this post season, Morris has hit at only 21% from downtown. He is a huge key here. L.A. has to continue to challenge Rudy Gobert by going to the rack. The Clippers were a plus 12 in free-throw attempts Monday and that will need to continue. Gobert was in foul trouble on Monday and he only had 8 boards after pulling down a total of 32 rebounds in the Utah wins in this series.

Rating: 3 Units

Hope you bought your ticket on the Clippers to win this series while they were down 0-2 and the odds were better. In Game 3, Tyronn Lue and staff switched back to a smaller starting lineup without a traditional center (same as in Game 1, a 3-point road loss), forcing Utah’s interior defensive monster Rudy Gobert to look around for somebody to defend on the perimeter, which allowed L.A. to attack him away from his comfort zone. Following the 26-point win in Game 3, the Clippers could have the Jazz on their heels. Utah’s do-it-all guard Donovan Mitchell entered the post-season off an ankle injury, left Game 3 with an ankle injury. Point guard Mike Conley – who averaged 17.4 ppg and 8.6 assists in Utah’s First Round series – has missed all three games of this series with a hamstring injury. The ball is in their hands a lot, and they are the two best at creating good shots for themselves on a team for which somebody else is destined to be taking a three-pointer from here, or there, or over there, or from wherever they think they have enough space.

Rating: 3 Units

It’s impossible to stop real good players but containment is the key. Trae Young makes Atlanta go and if his offense can be disrupted, it can stop the Hawks from doing what they want to do on the floor. The ball stuck on the Atlanta side on Friday as they only had 15 assists to 28 for Philly. Not only did Philly’s Ben Simmons do a great job on Young in the last game, he was aggressive offensively. Ben was 7 for 11 from the floor and he can post up anybody on Atlanta except for maybe Clint Capela. If he can again slow down Young, Philly should be able to take a commanding lead in the series. Losing Danny Green, with all of his championship experience, is a blow to the Sixers but Philly has a number of players that can fill in for him. Matisse Thybulle, Shake Milton, Tyrese Maxey and Forkan Korkmaz are all capable of hitting big shots. George Hill gives Philly an edge as an experienced player and if Tobias Harris can keep on producing it will take pressure off of Joel Embiid.

Rating: 3 Units

If Brooklyn can contain either Khris Middleton or Giannis Antetokounmpo it will go a long way toward taking a strangle-hold on this series. That pair put up 68 points combined Thursday but they got very little help and the ball stuck as the Bucks only had 12 assists. The Nets have to force Giannis to jack up shots. He is 4 for 32 in 7 post-season games so far. The Nets can play much better. After shooting 50% from the floor during the season Kyrie Irving was just 9 for 22 from the field on Thursday. Kevin Durant was a 54% shooter from the field during the season but in the last loss he was only 39% from the floor and Brooklyn only lost by 3 points. Good teams rebound from bad performances and the Nets had their lowest-scoring output of the season in the last game. Look for Joe Harris to be sky high for this game. He was only 1 for 11 from the floor and this season, Harris shot it at 51% from the field and 48% from downtown.

Rating: 2 Units

If the Clippers don’t contain Donovan Mitchell here, they can pretty much kiss the season goodbye. L.A. played very limited defense on Thursday. Donovan shot the ball at over 50%, Joe Ingles was 7 for 10 from the floor and Bojan Bogdanovic and Rudy Gobert were a combined 9 for 13 from the field. Coach Lue had better emphasize to his players that they have to get the Utah guys off their favorite spots on the floor. L.A. allowed Utah to shot 55% from the floor but during the season, L.A. was fifth in the league in defensive field-goal percentage. Reggie Jackson has to keep on performing at a high level for L.A. in this series. He had 29 points on Thursday and that just takes pressure off of Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. Marcus Morris continues to struggle from deep but he should be pumped up here after going 0 for 5 from long-range Thursday. Kawhi, who was in foul trouble, kind of disappeared in the fourth quarter on Thursday and expect him to be ultra-energized for this one.

Rating: 2 Units

Philly stepped on the Hawks right out of the blocks on Tuesday winning the first quarter by 13. Atlanta put together a little run in the second stanza but the Sixers controlled the tempo and the game in the second half. The ball stuck on Atlanta side as they only had 20 assists and the game would not have been all that close if Danilo Gallinari and Kevin Huerter didn’t combine for 41 points. It was a case of Shake, rattle and roll for Philly on Tuesday as Shake Milton lit it up off the bench and gave the Sixers the needed momentum lift. He had a solid season off the pine but was in Doc Rivers dog house until Tuesday. Trae Young proved human as he was just 1 for 7 from deep for the Hawks and one of the main reasons was the defense of Ben Simmons. Atlanta could not stop Seth Curry, Tobias Harris or Joel Embiid in the last game. That trio accounted for 83 points. Embiid is listed as questionable for this game but he has said he wants to play through his injury and manage it.

Rating: 2 Units

Denver was energized for only 24 minutes in Game One. It seemed like they forgot how to play in the second half. Phoenix was just more aggressive. The Suns were a plus 14 in free-throw attempts and they shot 85% from the charity stripe. Not only does that represent free points, but it allows the defense to get back, settle and defend. Deandre Ayton did not shrink from the moment and he had an efficient game compared to Denver’s Nikola Jokic. Denver just looked way too casual and they looked tired to boot. The Nuggets have to play better defense. They gave up 110 a night this season but they rewarded Phoenix with 122 points on Monday. Jokic only had 3 assists and during the season he was the best passing center in the league averaging 8 dimes a night and ranking 6th overall. Look for Monte Morris to be pumped up for this one. After playing lights out against Portland, Morris was just 1 for 10 from the floor on Monday

Rating: 2 Units

This first game of the Western Conference semis looms a case of rust vs. rest. It’s hard to gauge which way that issue will play out but L.A. should be the sharper of the 2 teams here at least early on. The Clippers went small for Dallas and it finally paid off as they took a Game Seven on Sunday behind good games from Paul George and Kawhi Leonard. The Clips bench also outscored the Dallas reserves 27 to 6. Utah won 2 of the 3 match-ups with L.A. this season. Outside of the one blowout Jazz win when L.A. was missing their top two players, Nic Batum and Luke Kennard, the other two games were decided by an average of 5 points. Mike Conley, who is dealing with a hammy, had 33 in the Utah win in on New Year’s Day but the Clips came out flat in that game and George was only 6 for 22 from the floor. In the Clippers win on Feb. 19, Donovan Mitchell led all scorers with 35 but Kawhi was in foul trouble and Reggie Jackson, who has replaced Patrick Beverley in the Clippers starting line-up, only had 5 points. In the last 6 games, Reggie has scored 15, 16, 15, 20, 25 and 15 points. L.A. will have to devise a way to guard the pick and roll with Rudy Gobert. If they can neutralize his effectiveness, and find a way to get to the rack quickly before Rudy can get set up, it will go a long way to success in this series.

Rating: 2 Units

Doc Rivers, hey, way to have that defensive game plan ready for Game 1. Great job, Doc! Wave the, "Oh, woe is us with Joel Embiid possibly unable to play!" flag of distraction in hopes that Atlanta gets suckered by it, Embiid plays and scores 39 points, but the other side gets 74 points in the first half on your home floor. Oh, sorry, we forgot, it’s not Doc coaching the team for real; it’s his assistants. Rivers is the world’s highest paid cheerleader. Therefore, Sam Cassell, Dave Joerger, Dan Burke and Popeye Jones have been huddled in a room since Saturday night, blaming each other for not sticking Ben Simmons on Trae Young much in Game 1, and allowing Danny Green to be de-pantsed repeatedly by the Hawks’ motorman guard. Those guys now know who Bogdan Bogdanovich is. The Hawks’ 6’6" shooting guard – who missed all three regular-season games against the 76ers – scored 21 points in Game 1, including 5-for-12 on three-pointers. The good news for Philly is this: every starter had a positive plus-minus for the game, while every Hawks starter except Bogdanovich had a negative plus-minus. Also, if Atlanta’s underrated defender DeAndre Hunter is out again with his knee problem, expect Philly to score in the range of what they got in Game 1, which was 124. Also consider that number 1 seeds in Game Two in the NBA playoffs, coming off a SU favorite loss in Game One, are 7-1 ATS.

Rating: 2 Units

Devin Booker was not in uniform in the Suns loss to the Nuggets on Jan. 23. Denver won 2 of the 3 games these clubs played this season including a double overtime thriller when the Nuggets prevailed by 7 points. Their 3 games were decided by an average of 5 points and two games went into extra minutes. Chris Paul’s grit was there for all to see against the Lakers and he always makes sure Phoenix gets good shots. Booker is capable of going off on any given night and this series could just come down to the good guard play of Phoenix against the all-around stellar play of Nikola Jokic. Michael Porter Jr. has stepped up for Denver as he averaged 19 points in the first round and shot it at 42% from deep. Denver is undermanned without Jamal Murray, Will Barton and P.J. Dozier but the Nuggets picked up a quality defensive guy in Aaron Gordon and there is hope for Phoenix that Barton will be back for this series. Monte Morris was a revelation off the bench against Portland and if he continues to produce, Denver will be much better off. Portland’s elite superstar Damian Lillard had nothing but good things to say about Jokic after the Blazers were eliminated, Lillard: “He’s (Jokic) making threes, scoring on the block, scoring on the free-throw line, getting to the free-throw line, he’s making other guys better. He’s everything for them and I think if it was any year where a guy like him and what he does for that team, could lead a team to a championship, it would be this year because of how open it is.”

Rating: 2 Units

The Milwaukee Bucks are 13-6-1 ATS in Game Two of a playoff series, including 7-2-1 ATS as a dog.  The Brooklyn Nets are 2-11 SU and 4-8-1 ATS in Game Two of a playoff series, including 1-6 SU and 1-5-1 ATS when coming off a win. 

Rating: 2 Units

The Mavericks had us right where they wanted us in Friday night’s Game 6: Up 4, home floor, taking 3, large home crowd behind them, having re-gained the lead following a slight halftime deficit. But they couldn’t close the deal. After gagging it away in their first closeout try, people now expect them to take a mulligan on the road and knock it straight down the fairway, onto the green in regulation, then get up and down while the Clippers don’t. Good luck w/that. If we don’t win, we hope it pushes and if we can’t win and it doesn’t push, we hope they win. The Clippers, despite failing to reach their per game scoring average of 114 points in eight of nine games with Dallas this season, have  found ways to win three road games in this series. Whatever the Mavericks have done defensively to limit the Clips – or maybe it’s the Clips limiting themselves – has worked to a degree but has nevertheless left the well-coached club in the usually unenviable position of needing to win a Game 7 on the road. Naturally, because every other game in this series has been won by the road team, their particular task doesn’t seem daunting on the surface. But as we noted on Friday, the Mavericks have had their own troubles scoring against the Clippers, reaching their scoring average only three times in the nine games between the teams this season -- something they haven’t done in this series since they won Game 2, after which we noted that the Clippers had put themselves in the reverse-of-good position of needing to win four of the next five games, three of them on the road, in order to advance.

Rating: 2 Units

The major question here obviously is Joel Embiid’s health. If he can’t go, the Sixers are vulnerable but not dead. Philly won the season series two games to one. Atlanta is coming off an impressive series against the Knicks. In the Hawks only loss against New York, they were down one point with 12 minutes to go and lost the last quarter by 8 and the game by 9. Trae Young was tremendous during the series and Clint Capela backed up his brash talk. In Philly’s lone loss to Atlanta this season in January, they were missing several players because of health and safety protocols and Ben Simmons was out with a knee injury. Philly beat this team in back-to-back games in Philly in April by a combined 66 points. Young didn’t play in one of those Philly wins and in the other Sixers success Young had 32 points but the Hawks had twice as many turnovers than the Sixers. Philly has a much deeper club than Atlanta. If Embiid can’t go, Coach Rivers can roll out Dwight Howard or go small. In one span from mid-March to April 1 Philly won 7 of 10 games without Joel and the three losses during this period were against two teams that won in the first round of the playoffs and the Clippers, who host Dallas in a Game Seven today.

Rating: 2 Units

Watching these teams go at it on Wednesday, you kind of got the feeling that the Clippers think they are better than they are in reality. L.A. came out flat when they were outscored by 7 in the opening quarter and they came out flat in the third quarter. Kawhi Leonard had the rare off shooting night and he and Paul George were only 4 for 14, or 29% from beyond the arc. Each game of this series has been won by the road team, a basketball rarity. It’s the third playoff series in history, and the first since 1995, in which the road team has won the first 5 games. In 1995, Houston was facing San Antonio and in that pivotal 6th game in Houston the Rockets beat the Spurs at home behind 39 points and 17 rebounds from Hakeem Olajuwon. L.A. has had no answer for Luca Doncic. Tim Hardaway Jr. hit some timely shots to thwart the Clippers fourth-quarter rally on Wednesday. Luca not only had 42 points, but he had 14 assists, 8 boards and a theft. Boban Marjanovic gave L.A. something else to worry about and he’s a frustrating player to go against because he is 7-foot, 4-inches, and barely has to jump to secure a rebound. The Dallas guy that got lost in the shuffle Wednesday was Dorian Finney-Smith. Dorian played 40 minutes, he only had 8 points and one block but he had 5 sneaky steals. Dallas will no doubt remember that they were embarrassed the last time L.A. was in Texas and with a crowd of nearly 18,000, this could be the time for the Mavericks to take that next step.

Rating: 3 Units

Ah, you probably thought that when the Clippers showed up in Dallas trailing
0-2 in the series after two home losses, we’d be shoveling dirt and sticking forks in them, expecting them to go home for the season in the quickest possible way, eh? No, no, no. You see, with Dallas leading 2-0 everyone figured, “Oh, the Mavericks have their number, they have the momentum, they are home, with a loud crowd, and they are an underdog! How can they lose?... How could they lose again!?” Now that it’s the Clippers who have the alleged momentum and are returning home off two straight road wins, the same people are attaching the same imaginary traits to L.A. when they are a three possession favorite against an opponent they’ve scored more than their average
against only one (1) time out of seven games this season. We expected Old Man
Regression to hit Dallas from the perimeter in Game 4 and at 5-for-30, he was
workin’ so hard that he’ll need a night off.

Rating: 3 Units

Memphis deserves respect despite the fact they are down 3 to 1 in this series. As the youngest team in the league, they compete like they have been doing it for years. Even though Ja Morant and Dillion Brooks had off shooting nights, Memphis went on a 12 to 2 run to start the fourth quarter to be down only 2 points with 5 and a half minutes to play in the last game. Outside shooting killed the Grizzlies Monday. The Memphis starters were just 4 for 21 from deep while the Utah starters were 11 for 21 from beyond the arc. Utah was more aggressive going to the rim on Monday hitting on 25 of 28 free throws. Jordan Clarkson showed why he is the Sixth Man of the Year as he was 8 for 18 from the floor. Utah wants to erase the memory of blowing a 3-1 lead in the bubble last year. Utah’s Mike Conley has a long memory, Conley: “We obviously remember that feeling that we had last season, and it’s not something we want to experience again.”

NBA Play of the Day

Despite a poor shooting night from Damian Lillard, Portland crushed Denver on Saturday. One of the keys to playing well against Portland is to contain their starting guards but Denver allowed the Blazers Norman Powell to go off for a career-high 29 points. That kind of defense has to be addressed. Austin Rivers came back to earth on Saturday and he figured to do just that considering he was sitting on his couch a few weeks ago going through the want ads. Three of the Denver starters Friday were just 8 for 25 from the floor and Michael Porter Jr. took only 3 shots. In the last 2 games Nikola Jokic totaled 6 assists. During the season, Jokic was 6th in the league in that category. Bam Adebayo was the only other center in the top 30. Last season, Denver had 2 successful Game 5s before losing to the Lakers in the Conference Finals. First off, they were down 3 to 1 to Utah and came back to the Mile High and won Game 5 by 10 points. In the next series, they were down 3 to 1 to the Clippers and then won the Game 5 in L.A. and eventually made it three in a row to win the series against the Clips. Coach Malone: “Maybe this could be a wake-up call for our starting group, just to play harder. Good things happen when you play hard, and we didn’t play anywhere close to hard enough tonight.”

Rating: 2 Units

Boston head coach Brad Stevens is 8-2 ATS as a double digit dog in his career with Boston when coming off a double digit loss, including 7-0 ATS the last seven games.  He is also 4-1 ATS as a double digit dog, winning two of the games straight up.  With the double digit playoff road dogs 30-15 ATS since 1990 when coming off a double digit loss, it's time to take the Celts tonight.

Rating: 2 Units

Eh, they’re not dead yet, these Grizzlies. One bad quarter – the first – was pretty much to blame for their Game 3 loss that tipped the series 2-1 Utah’s way. Forget the 14-2 end run made by the Jazz that propelled them to the cover as well as the straight-up win. Way too many early defensive breakdowns put Memphis in a hole that no underdog needs to be in. Utah has made 19 three pointers in Games 2 and 3, with 48.7% and 44.2% accuracy. While there’s no steadfast rule that the team that took the most three-pointers per game in the league (43) should shoot a lesser percentage than their average of 38.8% in the next game after bettering it by that much twice in a row, a regression is on the table as a distinct possibility, especially if the Grizzlies have their act
together early. The home dog has the energy and style to create some defensive havoc, rebound as well or slightly better on both ends, and attack the paint with enough frequency and authority to offset Rudy Gobert’s rim protection.

Rating: 3 Units

Home teams in game four who are down 0-3 in the series of the opening round in the NBA Playoffs are 2-11 SU and 3-9-1 ATS since 1990.  When these same teamss are coming off a loss of 13 or more points they dip to 0-6 SU and 0-5-1 ATS.  That is not promising news for the Washington Wizards this evening. 

Rating: 3 Units

After five tries and five failures, the Clippers finally exceeded their scoring average in a game against Dallas. In their 118-103 Game 3 win here, as close to a must-win as there ever was, they overcame a 27-11 early deficit no less, to trail only 34-31 after one quarter. Dallas has never really seemed like a great  defensive team, so the Clippers’ offensive struggles in the match-up may have been just one of those things, a statistical oddity. Could be that they’ve found the range. Meanwhile, here’s a stat that could provide some insight to the future: In Game 3, the Maver-icks shot a very good 20-for-39 on three-pointers (51.3%, compared to their regu-lar season average of 38.1%), yet lost it by 10 points

Rating: 3 Units

Atlanta moved the ball and were a plus 14 in points in the paint in the win over NY on Friday and they shot the ball great to boot. Atlanta had 7 guys in double figures and Lou Williams came off the bench and gave them 9 points in 11 minutes. The Hawks did get a break when the Knicks were only 39% from the field. The Knicks only lost one quarter on Friday but it cost them the game. The contest was tight until about 5 minutes to go in the second quarter. At that point, Atlanta made a 17 to 5 run and that was the difference in the game. New York has to play better defense and they also have to continue to be aggressive going to the rack. NY got to the free-throw line 30 times Friday, 22 more times than the Hawks. Look for both R.J. Barrett and Julius Randle to be dialed in for this game. They were a combined 4 for 24 from the floor Friday

Rating: 3 Units

Similar to the Bubble when several players last season had break-out performances, Ja Morant has made a name for himself with just 2 playoff games. Ironically, he broke Mike Conley’s Memphis team scoring record with 47 points in the last game. He became the first player to score as many as 71 points in his first two career playoff games since the NBA was created. He was 15 for 20 from the free-throw line as Utah only got to the charity stripe 31 times. Can Morant keep it up? He kicked off the season scoring 44 and had 28 in the next game. He had 29 in a game in February and had 12 next time out. He had 36 points in the last game of March and had 11 points next time on the court. The Memphis bench let the team down and if they don’t come to play, Utah will regain the home-court advantage. The Grizzlies reserves were outscored 43 to 14 Wednesday. Utah shot the ball poorly in the opening loss to Memphis in this series but they only had one poor quarter. The Jazz were only 26% from distance in the opening loss but came back and hit at 49% on Wednesday. Mike Conley and Ruby Gobert had double/doubles Wednesday and the return of Donovan Mitchell took pressure off of Conley to do everything. Only three teams in the league had a better away record than the Jazz this season.

Rating: 2 Units

The Milwaukee Bucks are 3-15 ATS against non-divisional opponent this season when coming off three or more wins in a row.  Miami Heat head coach Eric Spoelstra is 7-1 ATS in his career with the Heat as a conference home dog coming off consecutive losses versus foes coming off consecutive wins.  He is also 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS at home in elimination games during the playoffs.

Rating: 2 Units

The Clippers finally exceeded their scoring average in a game against the Mavericks… but gave up 127 points and fell to 0-2 in the series. They will now have to pull a reverse of the usual playoff-series comeback try, needing to win four out of as many as five games when three of them will be on the road, starting with Games 3 and 4. Say, what’s Paul George shooting on three-pointers so far in the two losses? That would be 3-for-15. Keep jackin’ ‘em up, superstar (in his own mind). As the Clippers attempt to chip away at it, one thing to keep in mind: Dallas has shot 50.0% and 58.3% in the two games, including 47.2% and 52.9% from three-point range – over the top stuff, with Old Man Regression a potential sixth man for the Clippers tonight.

Rating: 3 Units

New York came out flat on Wednesday scoring just 44 points in the first half but they put the clamps on the Hawks in the final 24 minutes holding Atlanta to 35 points in the come-from-behind New York victory. Several guys on both teams had off games. John Collins picked up three quick fouls for the Hawks and never did score while Atlanta’s Danilo Gallinari was only 2 for 10 off the bench for 6 points in 30 minutes. Four of the Knicks starters were a combined 11 for 35 but Derrick Rose looked like the kid that won the MVP in the league when he was only 22 years old. The Knicks are trying to regain the home-court advantage here and they won’t be shy about playing in Georgia. They beat the Hawks in January in Atlanta and their current center Nerlens Noel and Rose didn’t play.

Rating: 3 Units

When Milwaukee murdered Miami, 132-98 to go up two games to none in their playoff series Monday night they set the tone for the rematch in Miami tonight.  The Bucks finished with 22 three pointers, a new franchise playoff high and handed the Heat their 2nd worst loss in franchise history (-34).  Consider that Miami is 17-6 SU and 18-4-1 ATS in the playoff under head coach Eric Spoelstra when coming off a playoff loss of more than 10 points.

Rating: 2 Units

The New York Knicks were the best point spread team in the NBA this season, doing 45-26-1 ATS in all games prior to the playoffs.  They return home to Madison Square Garden this evening on the heels of a Game One setback to Atlanta on Sunday knowing they are 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS as a playoff favorite when coming off a SU favorite loss.  On the flip side, Atlanta is 4-14 SU and 5-13 ATS in the playoffs versus a foe coming off a SU favorite loss, including 0-7 SUATS the last seven games.

Rating: 2 Units

We look at this game a lot like last night's Game 2 in the Celtics-Nets series. In Game 1 of the Celtics-Nets series, the underdog turned in a game effort. They led at halftime, but wilted late and couldn't even get the cover. Game 1 of this series saw Washington up midway through the third quarter. But the next six minutes proved decisive as the 76ers went on a 26-16 run and never look back. The Wizards basically played the Sixers even most of the game. But they probably can't expect to shoot 55.7% on the road again in Game 2. After all, Philadelphia is #2 in defensive efficiency. Washington gave up the most points per game of any team in the league during the regular season. The Wizards had to play those two play-in games, so Philadelphia is better rested at this point. We look for Game 2 to be a bit of a blowout, just like Game 2 of Celtics-Nets ended up being

Rating: 3 Units

Maxi Kleber, who started at center in Game 1, is iffy here with an Achilles issue. It was a game of runs Saturday when Dallas upset L.A. The Clippers went on a 26-13 tear early in the game and Dallas connected on 11 straight points at one juncture. Luca Doncic is one tough 22-yearold player and he makes everybody around him better. If the Clippers want to win this series, they will have to get physical with Luca. Patrick Beverley will have to get under Luca’s skin and if that doesn’t work, Marcus Morris has to put a body on him. The Clips were outscored in every quarter on Saturday and Paul George only took 6 shots. L.A. shot 28% from deep and that probably will not happen here. In 73 games the season, the Clippers shot it at 41%. During the season, the Clippers were the second best team in the league in point differential

Rating: 2 Units

We’re starting to dislike Lebron. There is no way that Chris Paul is strong enough to make Lebron fall down simply by grazing him with his back turned. Lebron hurt his left shoulder (or made believe it was hurt) on his own flop. Come on, man. Although we picked the Lakers to win Game 1 by 2 points, a Game 1 loss by the Lakers, or any team with Lebron on it, is no surprise. It’s happened a lot in the past, eventually followed by a series win. He and his  teammates – especially Anthony Davis – missed a heck of a lot of shots in the 99-90 defeat. Paul’s shoulder is probably in worse shape than Lebron’s, and as L.A. head coach Frank Vogel says, “If we hold this team to 99 points in Game 2, I feel good about our chances.”

Rating: 3 Units

Memphis played with grit, determination and +7 in steals beating Golden State on Friday to get this opportunity. They are young, talented and this post season will give them a chance to build for what should be a bright future. But they are probably 2 pieces away from being a legit contender and will have their hands full with Utah. Memphis lost to the Jazz three times in a span of 7 days this season. Their rally on March 26 fell short by 3 points on a night when 2 Jazz starters had 7 points total. They were blown out by 16 points after the 3/26 game and in the final game of the regular season with Utah, the Jazz reserves outscored the Memphis bench 35 to 13. Memphis was 1-3 in games after playing overtime this season and the win in that span came against a club that could only manage 22 wins all season. The average margin of defeat in the three Memphis losses after overtime was 12.6 points. Donovan Mitchell practiced Thursday for Utah and if he is able to go, it will obviously help the Jazz rotation. It will also take some scoring pressure off of Mike Conley and Jordan Clarkson. Utah took more shots from downtown than any team this season. They hit 39%, tied for 2nd in the Association. Memphis was 18th in the league in defensive three point field-goal percentage. Utah only lost 5 of 36 games at home this season. If Memphis doesn’t guard Bojan Bogdanovic from the right corner, the Grizzlies will be in trouble. Bojan hit 60 right corner three-point shots this season at 46%.

Rating: 3 Units

The Knicks fashioned a 3-0 regular-season sweep of the Hawks. “They” say that the playoffs are very different from the regular season. If that’s true, then in this instance it would mean that Atlanta will win the series. A good way to win the series is to win Game 1 on the road. The shooters surrounding Clint Capela for the Hawks – Trae Young, Bogan Bogdanovic, Danilo Gallinari, Lou
Williams – are more reliable than the shooters surrounding New York’s Julius Randle. The Knicks are 16-4 SU in their last 20 games. They own the NBA’s best point spread record, 64.3%, making them the most underrated team in the league… for the first 72 games.

Rating: 2 units

Memphis lost 2 of the 3 games they played this season against the Warriors. They scored 105 a night vs. the Warriors, about 8 points below their average. Memphis hit only 29% against Golden State from deep and that is no fluke as the Warriors were third this season in defensive three-point field-goal percentage. In the game Memphis won against the Californians, Draymond Green only had 7 points and 2 other Golden State starters were a combined 8 for 27 from the floor. Steph Curry only played in one game this season against the Grizzlies but he went for 46 points hitting on 9 of 22 from downtown. The Warriors lost a heartbreaker to the Lakers on Wednesday. Despite not getting a ton of clean looks, Curry poured in 37 points. The Lakers used a swarming defense to entice Curry to give up the ball, especially in the first quarter, and his teammates didn’t perform. The ball stuck on the Golden State side with only 19 assists and the Warriors turned it over 20 times. Turnovers has been a concern for the Warriors even in the glory days but they turned it over 5 times more than their average vs. the Lakers. The assists are a different story as the Warriors were tied for first in the league in assists at 28 a game. Look for Draymond Green to be aggressive here and expect Curry to come out firing at the sound of the bell.

Rating: 3 Units

Indiana came out and punched Charlotte in the mouth on Tuesday. The Hornets played like a deer in the headlights, the Pacers hit just about everything they attempted early and the game was pretty much over after Indy led by 24 points at the half. The Pacers did get a break when Charlotte’s starting guards were a combined 11 for 34. Despite Bradley Beal and Russell Westbrook shooting just 16 for 43 from the field in the loss to Boston on Tuesday, the Wizards still cut the lead to 7 points at one juncture in the fourth quarter. The Wizards were just 3 for 21 (14%) from beyond the arc but they shot it at 35% from deep during the season. They should bounce back against a team that has struggled to defend for much of the season. Washington beat the Pacers without Beal at the end of March and they also beat the Pacers 17 nights ago when Beal had and efficient game and Westbrook had 21 boards and 24 dimes. In that May 3 game, Indy’s Caris LeVert had 33 points, 7 boards, 5 assists and 2 blocks. Caris will not play here. Washington also beat Indy on May 8 behind 50 points from Beal and 33 from Westbrook. Washington has lost consecutive games only once in the last month and a half.

Rating: 2 Units

“Can the Warriors offense score enough to upset the Lakers in the play-in game?,” a pre-game story in a paper wants to know. Valid question. Since mid-March, Golden State has averaged 1.13 points per possession, which is in Knicks/Spurs territory. But when you take a look at the opposition they played as the regular-season wound down, it looks like a Who’s Who of NBA Bad Defense: Washington, Sacramento, Dallas, Minnesota, New Orleans three times, Oklahoma City twice, all within their final 14 games since Apr. 21. They closed out the regular season with six consecutive home wins. They play this on the road, against an opponent that beat them here 117-91 on Feb. 28, then 128-97 here on Mar. 15. Assuming Lebron James and Dennis Schroder are healthy and good to go, the Lakers have the defensive length to hold the Warriors under 100 again, and full offensive capabilities – the latter of which they haven’t had in a while. The line has moved from an opener of Lakers, -7 down to -4.5. Okay, sure, “Lakers” seems too obvious all things being equal (and in the rebounding department and at the rim, they most certainly are not equal). Maybe somebody knows something about why things may not equal. We shall see.

Rating: 2 Units

The Spurs had a tough schedule to close out the regular season as they lost 4 in a row but they were facing teams like Brooklyn, the Knicks and Phoenix (twice). But teams have been able to cheat on the Texans at times since they were 24th in offensive three-point field-goal percentage. Memphis finished the regular season just outside the top 10 in defensive field-goal percentage. They competed to the end of the regular games winning 5 of 6 and 6 of 8 and they beat Dallas during this time frame. Memphis lost to the Spurs on the opening night of the season when San Antonio was just more aggressive as they got to the free-throw line 11 more times against what was then a very depth-shy Grizzlies bunch. With more bodies on hand, Memphis beat the Spurs in back-to-back games when they had 71 assists combined in the 2 games. Memphis also shot 49% and 50% from deep in those wins. Jaren Jackson Jr. missed all the games with the Spurs this season but he’s been a big part of the Memphis success. Jaren has averaged 14 points and 6 boards.

Rating: 3 Units

Injuries really took a toll on the Pacers and it started in the opening week and continued when Myles Turner went down. Currently they have three other key players dealing with nagging injuries. Indy split their last 10 games of the season and three of the wins in that span came against Cleveland, Sacramento and Toronto, a club that tanked about 1 month ago. Indy lost the season series 2 to 1 to the Hornets and in the win Turner had  a good all-around game including 5 blocks. Myles will not play here. Charlotte ended the regular season on a bad note losing 5 in a row but one loss was by a bucket, another loss was in overtime to the thriving Knicks and the two of the other defeats came against the third and fourth seeds in the Western Conference. The Hornets play unselfish ball and are 5th in the league in assists. The Hornets are young but they are fearless. They ranked 2nd in the league in clutch offense, scoring 122 points per 100 possessions with the score within 5 points in the last 5 minutes or the fourth quarter or overtime.

Rating: 3 Units

Are the Nuggets too good to be taking three possessions worth of points? They might be. But as they enter tied for #3 West seed with the Clippers, a loss by Denver tonight would guarantee that they wouldn’t have to play the Lakers in the First Round, and it would give Portland a win that would force the Lakers to be in the Play-in Tournament, during which Lebron or Anthony Davis could be injured (or, lose!) and lessen the chances of last year’s champion and this year’s favorite to win another title, which would improve anyone and everyone else’s chances. Makes sense? Yes. In a perverse and almost conspiratorial way but don’t put it past anyone. Nuggets have had guard-rotation issues and the Blazers are quality-guard powered.

Rating: 2 Units

Teams can cheat on Houston since they are 28th in the league from long range. Atlanta is a well-balanced team and maybe more importantly they are 3rd in the Association in defensive three-point field-goal percentage. Trae Young has expanded his game this season and they have a vacuum cleaner in the middle in Clint Capela. When the Hawks beat the Rockets in March Houston’s Victor Oladipo had 34 points. Victor has moved on to South Beach.

Rating: 2 Units

After the three no-show superstars all played for only the third time in yesterday’s home win-cover vs. the Bulls, for only 30, 30, 25 minutes, seems like they can all play again to overwhelm the rested but sorry-ass road dog, losers of 12 of 13 but winners of two straight against the Nets in January, when they were still 8-7 with dreams to be shattered. Double-revenge!

Rating: 3 Units

Charlotte can struggle offensively. They only had 13 points in the final quarter in the loss to the Clips on Thursday. They were in the Big Apple on Saturday in a game where DeVonte’ Graham had 25 points off the bench but it wasn’t enough and New York held on. Washington will try to run this team out of the gym. The Wizards have won 3 of 5 and the 2 losses in that span were by a total of 5 points.

Rating: 3 Units

This match-up has a shot to be the same in the first round of the playoffs. Milwaukee is coming off a clever win over Indiana but it was not easy for any of the starters. All 5 starters played at least 30 minutes with Giannis Antokounmpo logging 35. Giannis was sensational as he only missed 4 shots from the floor but now the Bucks are facing a much better defensive club. Indy has given up 115 points a night while Miami is 5th in the league in allowing points at 108 nightly. These teams split back-to-back games early in the season and Jimmy Butler didn’t play in either contest. In the 12/29 loss only one Miami starter had more than 12 points, Goran Dragic only had one bucket and Bam Adebayowas in foul trouble. Miami is coming off a win against Philly and they looked very business-minded in that game. Udonis Haslem played in his first game of the season on Thursday and he was ejected within three minutes because he would not put up with any of Dwight Howard’s shenanigans.

Rating: 3 Units

Next week, it will be written many times, in many places, by many different people, that the Celtics are entering the post-season “the wrong way.” They have the season-ending injury to Jaylen Brown, losses in which they come out and trail early to bad teams… nothing positive has been happening for them lately as they’ve sunk into the “dreaded” play-in group of four. And then, they’ll be the underdog in a few of their playoff games and win them outright, when one of the best-ever underdog post-season coaches, Brad Stevens, puts some real game plans and winning rotations together and the nonsense of the regular season stops. Here, however, it continues with the T’Wolves getting over the hump after losing in OT at Boston on April 9

Rating: 2 Units

Charlotte is locked in a three team chase in an effort to avoid the dreaded 9 or 10 seed in the Eastern Conference playoff race, while New York is about as snug as a bug in a rug, holding down the No. 4 seed.  The Hornets take the court with a 4-1 SUATS recent record in this series, as well as a 7-2-1 ATS mark when playing with same season revenge from a loss of 5 or more points in this series.  New York brings in a 2-8 SUATS log into this contest at home against avenging opponents in games in which the Knicks are coming off a same season revenger with another same season revenger up next.

Rating: 3 Units

Toronto went into the tank a while back and they have absolutely nothing to play for here. Dallas still has to hustle and win this game and their last regular season game in Minnesota to be the master of their own playoff destiny. Timmy Hardaway Jr. has been filling it up of late for the Texans and when Toronto beat Dallas early in the season, Luca Doncic only had 15 points. The Canadians were in Chicago on Thursday and the tank performance was in full bloom as the Bulls had a 66 to 47 lead after 24 minutes and the Raptors further relented. Consider that Toronto is 7-47 ATS in games they lose when playing without rest against foes avenging a same season loss of 6 or more points.

Rating: 3 Units

OKC competed for the first 24 minutes in the loss on Tuesday but then were outscored by 23 in the third quarter as Sacramento soared. The Thunder have lost 8 in a row and has only won twice in their last 27 games. OKC’s Gabriel Deck has moved into the rotation but he has only played 8 NBA games. Utah is clinging to the top seed in the West. They have lost two in a row. They have never lost 3 in a row this season. In the games this season following 2 losses, Utah has won by 13, 15, 17 and 50 points

Rating: 3 Units

Cruel and unusual punishment for the Magic. The league is asking them to play a second of road back-to-backs against the rested top team in the Eastern Conference which, while it doesn’t need a win to stay there, would bring Philly’s magic number to 1 for clinching the East’s #1 seed, from a pool of their next game, also vs. Orlando, and Brooklyn’s two vs. Chicago and Cleveland. It would be classic Doc Rivers to have his team primed and ready to destroy a weakling off two road losses at Indiana and Miami in which the 76ers failed to reach 100 points in either.

Rating: 3 Units

Denver is locked into either a third or fourth seed in the West. They beat the Wolves in back-to-back games this season. In the first win Jamal Murray had 36 points and thhe Wolves Karl-Anthony Towns didn’t play while Anthony Edwards had 5 points. In the second Denver win over this club this season Denver had to rally to win by 7 points and again Towns didn’t play. Murray is out indefinitely. The Wolves have won 6 of their last 9. Three of those wins were by between 14 and 32 points and one of the losses came in overtime.

Rating: 3 Units

Raptors’ head coach Nick Nurse says he is “extremely optimistic” about a young, developing group. Dude, your franchise won the NBA Championship two seasons ago. So many of the players from that squad are on other teams already. Your country didn’t want you this season. What are you optimistic about? Doesn’t seem like Fred Van Vleet or Kyle Lowry will see the floor again this season, leaving Malachi Flynn, Deandre Bembry and Jalen Harris to mishandle the ball and sometimes dish it to Yuta Watanabe for another missed shot.

Rating: 2 Units

The Knicks are comfortably in the playoffs even though they dropped a couple of slots on Tuesday while the Spurs will have to fight in ‘play in’ competition. The Spurs were in Brooklyn on Wednesday and San Antonio never recovered after losing the first quarter by 15 points. The Texans beat the Knicks in their only match-up this season but the Knicks had excuses. Julius Randle only had 14 points, 2 New York starters had 7 points combined and Elfrid Payton and Derrick Rose didn’t play. This is the first game back for the Knicks after going 3 and 3 on the road including an overtime loss to the Lakers on Tuesday. The Knicks have had 3 other road trips this season of at least 4 games and they won the first game back all 3 times.

Rating: 2 Units

Another of our most reliable coaches in play tonight when Miami's Erik Spoelstra hopes to do everything in his power to help secure a coveted 6th see in next weeks upcoming NBA playoffs.  Currently in a wild scramble with the Celtics and Hawks in the Eastern Conference playoff race to secure a No. 6 seed, the Heat will have a double revenge chip on their shoulder tonight after being handled twice in back-to-back contests in Philly in January.  That turns it all over to Spoelstra, who brings a lofty 48-24 SU and 46-26 ATS record into the contest when playing with same season revenge from a conference loss of 12 or more points, including 17-6 ATS from Game 70 out.  Spoelstra is also 32-11 SU and 31-12 ATS at home from Game 60 our versus .666 or grater opponents.  With the Sixers just 7-11-2 ATS away in non-divisional game under had coach Doc Rivers, we're all over Miami.

Rating: 3 Units

Cleveland had lost 9 of their last 10 games before facing Dallas on Sunday. In that contest Cleveland lost every single quarter. There are some internal issues going on in Indiana but they played hard when losing by a point in overtime on Saturday against Washington. The Pacers are trying to sweep the season series here. Indy handled Cleveland easily early in the season and they beat them in March when they forced 25 turnovers.

Rating: 3 Units

Second of road back-to-backs for the Pistons. Home hasn’t been where the heart is for Chicago, on balance, but the road, with no rest, against a rested home side, is no place for a talent-challenged bottom-scraper with the fewest road wins in the NBA. Now that the pressure is off and the Bulls know they have less than a snowball’s chance in hell to make the play-in, they’ve started to play well with a switch in strategy – Vucevic to small forward as a nightmare match-up for, so far, Charlotte and Boston.

Rating: 3 Units

New Orleans will be without both Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson here. On top of that Steven Adams is dealing with a toe issue, Josh Hart just had surgery and Nickeil Alexander-Walker has a sprained ankle. Charlotte beat the Pelicans in January despite the fact the Pelican’s Williamson had 26, Ingram had 17, 8 boards and 8 assists and Hart had 19 points off the bench. Charlotte is coming off a win over Orlando when their starting guards combined for 55 points, 12 assists and 11 boards.

Rating: 3 Units

The first of two games in three nights between #7 Boston and #6 Miami, the Heat one game ahead coming off a home win. The Celtics return home off a no-show road loss. Of course, you know that #1 through #6 don’t have to deal with the play-in. Everyone assumes that this creates urgency among the players on both teams in a situation like tonight’s, to avoid that play-in. There’s also the chance that as highly paid pros who get paid to play the next game on the schedule, they don’t really care much. If it means anything to them, the Celtics know that if they sweep, then they’ll have swept the season series 3-0 and regain a 1-game edge. A split leaves them 2-1 in the season series and still 1 game behind with three to play, not the end of the world.

Rating: 2 Units

Not many teams will win games shooting 4-for-22 from three-point range but the Spurs had the good fortune to be playing Sacramento with De’Aaron Fox out and were able to shoot 51.7% overall. Portland is not a collection of defensive wizards but they can score. Also, when New Orleans gagged it away in the fourth quarter last night at Philly, it enabled the Spurs to get 2.5 games in front of them as well as 3.5 in front of Sacramento for the #10 slot. Breathing room. Last night’s was a “gotta have it.” They got it, therefore, tonight’s is not a gotta have it.

Rating: 3 Units

Indy’s Malcolm Brogdon has been dealing with a hammy and the Pacers are trying to avoid a season series sweep by Washington in this game. They lost to the Wizards in March despite the fact Washington turned it over 18 times. The Pacers lost a barn burner to Washington just 5 nights ago 154 to 141. In that game, Washington got 24 assists from Russell Westbrook and 50 assists overall. The Wizards have won 4 of 6 and the losses during this time frame were each by a mere point. Washington got by Toronto on Thursday despite foul trouble and a poor shooting night for Westbrook.

Rating: 2 Unit

Phoenix had to play extremely hard to beat New York last month. The Knicks were tied with the Suns going into the fourth quarter but lost that stanza by 8, the same margin of the Suns’ victory. The Knicks scored 12 points in the first 12 minutes in Denver on Wednesday but they won every other quarter. The ball stuck on the offensive end and Julius Randle had an off shooting night. New York can’t fall asleep in these final regular season games. New York’s bench outplayed the Phoenix bench in defeat last month outscoring the Phoenix reserves 47 to 32.

Rating: 2 Units

Denver came from 3-1 down to beat the Jazz in the 2020 post-season. The sides have split two games in Denver. Utah survived 35 and 30 points by Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic to win the first 109-105. They entered the second meeting on an 11-game winning streak, but trailed 79-54 at halftime and that was that. They catch the Nuggets at home for the first time since… a 98-95 loss last February when the Nuggets were just about as short-handed as they are right now with one large difference – Jamal Murray out this time

Rating: 2 Units

Despite it being a second of back-to-backs for an 8-16 ATS home favorite merely 6-8 ATS with no rest, it figures as a gimme for the Mavericks given the manner in which the Cavaliers have been going about their business. On the floor for only 26 and 13 minutes, Kevin Love and Isaiah Hartenstein had plus-minuses of -45 and -29 the other night. Jeez.

Rating: 3 Units

We have a problem in Houston. The Rockets are reeling with injury issues and only 7 guys played in the loss to Philly on Wednesday. Kelly Olynyk and Christian Wood are iffy for this game and Kevin Porter Jr., who scored 50 the last time these teams met, is out. The Bucks have won 4 in a row including consecutive wins over Brooklyn. Bobby Portis has been solid off the bench for Milwaukee scoring 11 a night and pulling down 7 boards. Houston upset the Bucks and the end of April but Milwaukee’s Giannis Antetokounmpo only played 46 seconds. Milwaukee will try to run this club out of the gym.

Rating: 3 Units

After last night’s 104-93 loss to the Kings, the Pacers are 11-20 SU on their home court. This team is a joke. But – you had a feeling we were going to pivot and talk up a distasteful team, didn’t you? -- the best thing Indiana has going for it tonight is that the Hawks shot 63.1% at home last night in their most dominant win of the season, while the Pacers underperformed offensively in all four quarters vs. the Kings. It’s a zig-zaggy, bouncy spot: What went up must come down, while what went down must come up

Rating: 3 Units

The Mavericks ended a long winning streak for the Nets the last time they were matched up. Dallas forced 19 turnovers in that win, were a plus 7 in steals and a plus 4 in blocks. In that game, Kristaps Porzingas had 18 points, a steal and 3 blocks but he will be missing in action for this. As talented at Brooklyn is across the board, there still is only one ball and that issue may come up when the Big Three on the Nets get on the court at the same time. Brooklyn just lost a pair to the Bucks and will be trying not to drop their fourth straight game. The motivation should be there. In that Dallas win in February, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant didn’t play and only one player for Brooklyn had more than 12 points. This is an important game for both clubs as the Nets are eyeing the top Eastern seed and Dallas is trying to avoid ending up in a ‘play in’ situation.

Rating: 2 Units

Houston’s Christian Wood is dealing with ankle and quad issues and he indicated on Sunday that he could miss a couple of games. Wood has been a rare bright spot for Houston and there is no need to push the guy as the Rockets are dead last in the West. Philly will be trying to get that Number One seed in the East and these are the kind of games they must have. Of the 6 games after this one, the Sixers have 4 games against teams that are not in the playoff picture. Philly was in a tricky spot when they placed Houston in February. They were in the first game back home after going 2 and 2 on the road and they beat the Rockets without Ben Simmons. The Rockets also got a big game that night from DeMarcus Cousins, who has since moved on to the Clippers.

Rating: 5 Unit NBA Game of the Week

Lots o’ guys on the Blazers can put the ball in the hole, from many different places on the floor. The Cavaliers, not so much. They score the fewest points per game in the NBA (103.9). Although they are scoring at a better rate lately (1.097 points per possession the last two weeks, better than eight other teams), their defense in this span has been the worst: 1.194 points per possession for the other guys. Cavaliers’ head coach J.B. Bickerstaff, Mr. “Good Problem to Have,” has asked the team that has made the fewest three-pointers per game in the league to take more of them. Nothin’ like taking a bad team and asking it to do more of something it hasn’t done well -- 34% on that shot, next to last on the season and only 34.5% in their 1-9 SU stretch the last 10 games, which includes last night’s overtime loss vs. Phoenix in which they took +12.5 points and did not cover. That’s what bad teams do – lose in a manner you’d think is close to impossible.

Rating: 2 Units

A two-game win streak for Orlando. Will wonders ever cease? They actually began the season 4-0 and then injuries and losses piled up, then trades. The most they’ve won consecutively is three (New York, Golden State, Detroit), one time, in late February. They’ve lost by 27 and 16 points to Celtics so far, when Boston played without Jason Tatum and Kemba Walker the first time, then held the Magic to 38.1% shooting when those guys played and Orlando still had Nikola Vucevic, Aaron Gordon and Evan Fournier in the starting lineup.

Rating: 2 Units

The home side has lost three straight but drops in class from Phoenix-Denver in the last two, to the East’s #11 Raptors. Toronto’s desperation and revenge paid off on this floor vs. the Lakers the other night. At this point, what are the Clippers playing for? At #4 in the West, they lead the #5-6-7 Dallas-Lakers-Portland cluster by 6.5 games with seven to play. Do they seem like a team that would bust its ass to get back to #3, or #2, or #1 in this span? Heck no. Lakers and Knicks are on deck prior to four road games to close out the regular season, the final two gimmes at Houston and OKC.

Rating: 3 Units

The Magic were in MoTown on Monday. They caught Detroit flat-footed in the middle quarter and that led to an Orlando victory. The Hornets hosted Miami on Sunday and the Heat cruised to victory but the Hornets still moved the ball with 30 assists. Charlotte also played good perimeter defense in defeat. The Hornets have 3 games after this matchup and they will need help to get to that 6th seed. Charlotte just handled the Pistons last Saturday when they got 29 points from Terry Rozier. That game marked the return of LaMelo Ball and he had 11 points, 7 boards, 8 assists, a steal and 2 rejections.

Rating: 3 Units

OKC was saving it up for the Suns and the heavily favored Suns could beat that
rag-tag but highly motivated outfit by only 3 points on Sunday. Cleveland lost by only 6 points to the Suns in Phoenix, when they still had Andre Drummond and Chris Paul, Dario Saric, Jae Crowder didn’t play for Phoenix, whose bench scored only 20 points. More hands are on deck for the Suns this time around and they show up playing for #1 record in the league, while the home dog with 1 wins in last 10 games, coming off home losses by 23 and 17 points, has proven that whatever it is they’re playing for, usually against weaker than tonight’s foe, they usually don’t have what it takes to get it.

Rating: 3 Units

Four-for-four! The Blazers’ revenge tour is a success, as they have beaten Indiana, Memphis, Brooklyn and Boston in a six-day span on the road. All four had beaten them in Portland. Crazy, stuff, eh? But not at all unpredictable, as we’ve selected the Blazers in a few of these. But the six-game trip is a guaranteed winning one. Atlanta did not beat them in Portland. The Blazers won yesterday in Boston, while the Hawks were off. Only eight fellas played for them. Now that the Blazers have pulled even with the Lakers for the #6 spot – the “last in” to avoid the play-in series – this arena becomes the invisible force field to stall their momentum and help Lebron avoid the indignity of a king needing to play his way into the postseason fray.

Rating: 3 Units

The Pacers lost to the D.C. Boys in March in a game where Washington missed Bradley Beal. Russell Westbrook had a monster line with 35 points, 14 boards and 21 assists. The Wizards were a plus 16 in points in the paint in that contest and a plus 7 in fast-break points. Washington has been rolling along. They have won 10 of 12. One of the losses in this time frame was in overtime and the other was by a point. Washington is a top 10 team in rebounding and they put pressure on teams since they score 115 a night.

Rating: 2 Units

Victimized by the mildly advertised return of Malik Monk and the surprise return of LaMelo Ball, the Pistons went down in flames at Charlotte on Saturday. Head coach Dwayne Casey has been less inclined to lose home games, in which his “rebuild” is an underrated 17-12 ATS. Orlando identifies more as a “torn down” team than a rebuild at the present time, is 9-21 SU away and coming off a home instant-revenge win vs. Memphis. Before the Magic traded half the team, they split two home games in three days with the Pistons in February, Detroit making the necessary adjustments to win the second.

Rating: 3 Units

Houston with 16 wins is dead last in the West. The Rockets hosted the Warriors on Saturday and Golden State went into their former championship mode and crushed Houston in the third quarter. The Rockets only scored 12 points in the third stanza. The defense has been there all season for the Knicks but only 4 teams in the league are better at offensive three-point field-goal percentage. New York had every right to go through the motions the other time they met Houston this season. The Knicks were coming off a win over Washington 24 hours earlier but they held Houston to 8 for 43 shooting from downtown. That stat is no fluke as New York is the best in the business guarding the deep ball. The Knicks only failed to cover twice in April.

Rating: 2 Units

Celtics scored 143 points on this floor the other night, but didn’t cover the spread. Portland is loaded with more dangerous scorers than that San Antonio team and takes just as good care of the rock. If Portland is looking at their current road trip as a revenge tour, then it’s going very well so far with wins at Indiana and Brooklyn, who’d beaten them at home, as did Boston.

Rating: 3 Units

Bucks rebounded to win in Chicago after losing in Houston but the Bulls’ Nikola Vucevic gagged with 1-for-9 from three-point range. Blake Griffin won’t be spending much time out on the perimeter for the Nets, who shoot from the outside a whole heck of a lot better no matter who wins their nightly game of spin the bottle and gets to leave the court for a night.

Rating: 3 Units

New Orleans had lost 6 of 8 before travelling to Oklahoma City on Thursday. In that game the Pelicans got good games out of their two stars but they got a break when OKC turned it over 22 times. Minnesota has won 4 in a row, 5 of 6 and the loss during this team frame came at Sacramento when they blew a fourth-quarter lead. D’Angelo Russell has embraced his current role off the bench as he is a legit starter. The Wolves dynamic rookie Anthony Edwards continues to improve. In Anthony’s last 7 games he has had 23, 28, 16, 23, 14, 19 and 25 points.

Rating: 2 Units

Second of home back-to-backs for the crummy Cavaliers, with the Heat rested since Wednesday night’s 116-111 home win vs. the Spurs. Miami has had some sort of voodoo over the Cavs in recent seasons, 27-7 SU and the set-up is obviously no help to Cleveland’s chance of bettering their fortunes in the alleged series. East #7 Miami would be in a play-in slot if the season ended today, so they have a reason to show up.

Rating: 3 Units

Part of Utah’s “peaking too soon” is beating the lousy Sacramento Kings by 51 points Wednesday night, scoring 154 in the process, one game before a rematch against the Suns. “All of us were a little bitter after losing two straight to Minnesota, so we really wanted to come out here and make a point,” Georges Niang said. You could respect them if they hadn’t lost two straight to Minnesota in the first place. When you play when you want to play – against bad opposition – the basketball gods don’t let you win when you want to play against a much better opponent. A Suns win forges a temporary tie for best record in the West/NBA. Like Minnesota, they’re already 2-0 vs. Utah before this third meeting. Like Minnesota

Rating: 3 Units

Off their latest “most embarrassing loss of the season” (so many of them!) at worst-record Houston, this is second of back-to-backs, fourth game in six nights, for the Bucks, concluding a four-game road trip here against rested Bulls before going home for two games in three days vs. Brooklyn on Sunday and Tuesday. After much dicking around, a sweep of Brooklyn could actually help propel the Bucks back up to #1 in the East when all is said and done. And a lot is being said about them, but little is being done by coach Budenholzer or the players, who seems content with the status quo. Maybe he’s sandbagging for the playoffs. But first things first. Giannis, the Meek Greek Freak, got injured again last night.

Rating: 2 Units

Cleveland wasted a double/double from Jarrett Allen in the loss to Orlando on Wednesday. Collin Sexton missed the game as he was under concussion protocols. Cleveland has won 12 of 29 games at home this season. Washington has won 9 of their last 10 and the loss in that frame came in a barn burner when the Spurs prevailed in extra minutes. Russell Westbrook notched another triple/double in the win over the Lakers on Wednesday. For all the adversity the Wizards have gone through this season, they are holding on to a ‘play in’ spot and taking advantage of a favorable schedule stretch.

Rating: 3 Units

After two wins at Portland last week, the home side has an opportunity to make a real statement by denying the Blazers the satisfaction of getting revenge for the double-dose they were forced to swallow. On Monday night, the Grizzlies gave a handicapping lesson on what happens to teams after they complete a two-game sweep of Portland in Portland but are forced to play in Denver the next night, against an allegedly “depleted” backcourt: 120-96, Denver. Memphis sank only 4 of 32 on three-pointers, which high school girls could have bettered. The situation got ’em. Bounce-back time with rest, as Blazers go back-to-back after beating a team that can’t win at home.

Rating: 3 Units

Chicago faced Miami on Monday and the Bulls got a break when Miami failed to show up for the fourth quarter. They Heat lost the last stanza by 14 points and the game by 8. The Bulls are currently on the outside looking into the playoff picture. Chicago is 12 and 18 at home this season. This is a different Knicks team that split 2 games with Chicago in February. New York had won 9 in a row before hosting the Number 2 team in the West, Phoenix, on Monday. In that game that streak ended thanks to a clutch performance by Chris Paul. The New York defense is there every night but during that winning streak, the Knicks were scoring 119 points per 100 possessions. The best in the league. Look for Julius Randle to be in tune here after going just 6 for 17 from the floor Monday.

Rating: 3 Units

The Pacers were 9-17 SU home before winning two in a row against a terrible twosome: OKC, Detroit. They somehow managed to win 111-87 in Portland back in January, but the Blazers got an in-game distraction that night when Jusuf Nurkic was lost to injury and now the Pacers have been without the two frontcourt players who played well in that win – Sabonis and Turner – for the
last week.

Rating: 3 Units

Milwaukee’s P.J. Tucker is dealing with an ankle issue and he is a solid two-way player. The Bucks had a let down on Sunday against the Hawks after beating Philly in consecutive games. This is Milwaukee’s third game in 4 nights and they just might be looking ahead to the back-to-back games to open May against Brooklyn. This is a much more important game for Charlotte as they try to sweep the 3-game season series with Milwaukee here and with only 11 regular season games left after this contest. They beat Milwaukee back in January despite playing the second of a back-to-back game and in spite of the fact Giannis Antetokounmpo had 34 points, 18 boards and 9 assists. Charlotte Coach James Borrego wrote ‘be unselfish’ on the whiteboard in the locker room before Charlotte played the Celts on Sunday. His team listened with 39 assists in the powerful win.

Rating: 3 Units

Chicago was in South Beach on Saturday and the Bulls came out flat and that was pretty much the game. They were down by 19 with 12 minutes to go and could not make up that gap. Miami needs every single game from here on out and they figure to be in tune to play 48 minutes after holding off the Bulls rally Saturday. They sit just outside the 6th spot in the East and that is the key seed in both Conferences. Duncan Robinson is coming off a solid game on Saturday as he became the third player this season to hit six 3-pointers by halftime in multiple games joining Steph Curry and Zach LaVine.

Rating: 2 Units

Cleveland had lost 4 of 5 before travelling to D.C. on Sunday. The win during this time frame came against the 25-35 Bulls. On Sunday Cleveland fell about when it counted in the last stanza. It’s been a forgettable season for Toronto but they still are just a game and a half out of a ‘play in’ possibility in the East. This is a game they need too with only 11 games left in the season and the next 5 against teams that are solidly in the playoff picture. The Raptors had a nice 4-game winning streak halted by the Knicks on Saturday but even in that defeat, Toronto was well within striking distance with 12 minutes to play. Look for Kyle Lowry to be focused after scoring just 4 points Saturday. When Toronto beat the Ohio Players 16 nights ago, Lowry and Pascal Siakam didn’t play for the Canadians but Gary Trent was in a zone scoring 44 points.

Rating: 2 Units

Second of back-to-backs for the Suns against rested home pup that is just about
as hot as anyone out there. The Suns are 10-4 SU, 9-5 ATS with no rest, but basically just .500 vs. the number since being 5-0 ATS in the situation and here we are in the alleged final grind of the regular season as they prepare to give it a go in the fifth and final game of an Eastern road trip. Although they’d go home with a winning, 3-2 trip with a victory, they can’t just win a game because they want to. They trailed only 97-92 after three quarters across town in Brooklyn yesterday but within the first four minutes of the fourth, the deficit was doubled.

Rating: 3 Units

Second of back-to-backs for the Wizards off yesterday’s eighth straight win, in which Beal, Westbrook and Robin Lopez were all limping around (and they were still without starting forward Rui Hachimura). They trailed in the fourth quarter against Collin Sexton-less Cleveland yesterday and were able to pressure a bad ball-handling team into fourth quarter turnovers to get over the hump. They’ll have less energy to press tonight, against an opponent that won’t turn it over much anyway. In a relatively short time, Washington has leapfrogged and put air between themselves and the sorry-ass, crunch time clown Chicago Bulls to be #10, final play-in spot, in the East. They can afford a little slip-up.