Super Bowl Smash

Rating: 5 Units

Consider that Super Bowl favorites of 5 or fewer points (Kansas City) in ‘double rest’ affairs – a week of rest before their first playoff game and a week of rest before the big game – are 5-13 SU and 4-15 ATS and No. 1 seeds in the Super Bowl (Kansas City) are 15-20 SU and 12-21-2 ATS since 1990, including 7-21 SU and 4-13-2 ATS versus non-No.1 seeds. The Eagles hold the highest points per game in the fourth quarter (9.3) this season and rank 13th in the league with first-quarter points per game (5). A slow start could be in order for the Birds. In closing, the Eagles arrived at SB LIX after five consecutive home games – the first time for any Super Bowl squad. Since 1980: Previous Super Bowl teams coming off four successive home games are 5-0 SUATS – all as a dog.

Conference Championship Game of the Month

Rating: 4 Units

Kansas City opened the year with a nice 27-20 home win over the Ravens, but the Chiefs were out-gained by 99 yards. In Week 2, they were out-gained again and needed a walk-off 51-yard field goal against the Bengals. In Week 5, they were in a struggle with the Saints before Derek Carr got knocked out of the game. In Week 16, they were tied with the Texans before Tank Dell's horrific knee injury in the third quarter. Following the Chiefs' Week 11 loss at Buffalo, here's who Kansas City closed the regular season with: Panthers, Raiders, Chargers, Browns, Texans, Steelers and Broncos (when KC benched all of its starters). Per ESPN's Football Power Index, the Chiefs played the No. 24 schedule this season (Buffalo's schedule was No. 14). When these teams met in mid-November, Buffalo closed as a 2.5-point home favorite. You certainly have to make an adjustment for homefield advantage, but we'd argue that the Chiefs' power rating should have dropped since then. Depending on what closing number you use in last week's game against the Texans, Kansas City went 3-5-1 against the spread to close the season. Buffalo went 6-3 ATS with wins over the 49ers, Lions, Broncos and Ravens. Why has the Chiefs' rating in the betting market improved? Because they beat the short-handed Texans twice?

Divisional Game of the Week

Rating: 4 Units

The Lions’ come into this one a massive 14-2 SU and 11-4-1 ATS mark when laying points this campaign. The fact is that any team in the Divisional Round, coming off an upset win as an underdog in the Wild Card Round (Washington), is 0-15 SU and 3-12 ATS as a road dog if they won five or fewer games the previous season.

NFC Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

With the Rams having climbed the mountain and now breathing playoff air, and currently 5-10 SU and 4-11 ATS at home against triple-revenging foes, we’re riding the Seahawks as they zero in on a 10-win season, which is what Los Angeles will have if they fall to Seattle today. With that, we’re all over the mad-as-hell triple-avenging division visitor with the better offense and defense. Finally, playing against any .500 or greater NFL team in its final game of the season if they are coming off three consecutive revenge wins is 9-1 ATS.

AFC East Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

Most of Miami’s early lack of success is attributable to the loss of QB Tua Tagovailoa in the early portion of the campaign. The Tongan has pled well in division duke-outs with a 13-8 SU and 12-8-1 ATS career mark, including 11-2 SU and 9-4 ATS versus losing division foes. He missed the team’s victory at Cleveland because of a hip injury, and he is questionable this week. This means Tyler “Snoop” Huntley may be making a fifth start for the Dolphins in 2024. The Jets can’t seem to get off the runway in this series, just 2-11 SU and 3-10 ATS since 2018. They are also just 2-10 ATS when coming off double-digit SUATS losses and 2-11 ATS in their last thirteen puppy roles. With the Miami’s 11-2 ATS as a favorite coming off a favorite role in their previous game, it’s time we say goodbye, Mr. Rodgers. Finally, Miami QB Tyler Huntley is 4-1 SUATS in his NFL career against foes coming off consecutive losses, including 3-0 SUATS away

Bowl Game of the Year

Bowl Game of the Year

The Buckeyes are 0-2 under Day vs. Oregon after winning the first nine matchups against the Ducks; however, Ryan is 3-0 ATS in games against foes with a better win percentage. It’s usually a good day for OSU to play unbeaten teams, going 13-7 SU, including 3-0 ATS in games when Ohio State is not unbeaten. The Buckeyes overcame a hostile crowd of Tennessee supporters and some of their fans to rout the SEC opponent to set up, oddly enough, a traditional Rose Bowl if Oregon was still in the Pac-12. Nike founder Phil Knight, the 12th man of the Ducks program, has spent his money wisely on everything from A to Z to get the Ducks to this moment, including a chance to be the first 16-0 team in college football history. Gabriel will get most of the attention, but Oregon RB Jordan James rushed for 1,253 yards and 15 TDs. Tez Johnson is Oregon’s #1 WR, hauling in 10 of Gabriel’s 28 TD tosses. Ohio State QB Will Howard rebounded nicely from the Michigan disaster with a world-class performance versus the Volunteers, and he’s publicly shared his willingness to get another shot at the Ducks, who beat the Bucks by one earlier this year. The game ended with Howard trying to lead a game-winning drive that fell short. You want to avoid falling short on something else: your money. Be warned that bowl teams coming off rest, like the Ducks, are 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS against unrested bowl teams. Finally, teams seeking revenge in bowl games featuring same conference rivals are 6-0 ATS since 1990.

NFC Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

The Bucs hold a 57% chance of breaking through. That improves to 70% with a win here and 85% with a pair of season-ending victories. The good news is they have beat Carolina like a drum of late, winning eight of the last nine meetings while cashing eight of the previous eleven games as a division home favorite of five or more points. In addition, the Panthers are 0-5 SUATS in Game Sixteen of the season in the last five years. Finally, Carolina is 0-9 SU and 2-6-1 ATS versus winning opponents behind QB Bryce Young, including 0-5 SUATS against opponents with an .800 or fewer win percentage.

AFC Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

Denver can clinch a playoff bid with a win today or next week. It currently holds the 7th and final playoff seed, while Cincinnati holds the No. 9 spot in the AFC playoff chain. Mathematically, Denver enters with a 76% chance of being playoff-bound, while Cincy clings to a scant 4% chance of earning a playoff berth. That improves to 14% with wins today and next week against the Steelers. Don’t tell that to Joe Burrow, though. All he knows is his team is still breathing. We know that Burrow is 9-3-1 ATS in his NFL career against the AFC West, including 5-0 SUATS in the last five games as a host. In addition, the Striped Cats are 3-1-1 ATS on Saturdays, while the Broncos are 1-4 ATS on Saturdays. Finally, the Bengals are 14-4 ATS against .600 or greater non-division opposition with Joe Burrow, including 9-3 SU and 10-2 ATS when Cincy enters off a SUATS win.

Bowl Game of the Week

Rating: 4 Units

Remember that SEC bowl favorites are 30-12 SU and 20-11-1 ATS versus Big Ten opponents off a loss, but just 2-8 ATS in bowl games against foes off a SU loss. On the flip side, the 6-6 Trojans were also a major disappointment this season, and Lincoln Riley needs a win here to avoid his first losing season as a head coach. QB Miller Moss was benched mid-season, and Riley will get a good look at Jayden Maiava, who beat Nebraska and UCLA in November. Finally, the good news is that 6-6 bowl teams shine against foes coming off consecutive SUATS losses and are ready to rumble in the post-season. That’s confirmed by the fact that 6-6 bowl teams coming off a pair of SUATS losses are 24-10 ATS, including 12-3 SU and 14-1 ATS with a scoring defense that allows 25 or fewer PPG.

Inter-Conference Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

According to Seahawks’ head coach Mike MacDonald, all signs are positive for Smith heading into this pivotal matchup with the Vikings. If Seattle wins out, they will be the NFC West champions. Minnesota’s issue starts with the fact that they are 0-5 SUATS in Game Fifteen in the last five years. They are also 1-7 outright in the previous eight games in this series (3-5 outright) and 1-6 ATS after hosting a division game. On the flip side, Seattle counters at 9-2 ATS as a dog off a loss against a foe coming off a win as a favorite. Finally, playing against any NFL road favorite from Game Eleven out when off three straight home games if they are coming off a win and failed to beat the spread by 18 or more points is 35-9 ATS.

NFL Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

We realize that having the Cowboys on deck for Philly isn’t as meaningful today as in years past (0-8-1 ATS before Dallas). But that cloud still rests above the Eagles, as in the three games away from Lincoln Financial Field against winning teams (projected playoff teams) this season, Philadelphia is 0-3 ITS (In The Stats) by an average of -117 net yards. With the Commanders 7-1-1 ATS as small home dogs of fewer than five points when coming off a win, and Game Fifteen division home dogs standing 6-1 ATS against foes coming off a win, you know the right side of this game. Finally, NFL home teams coming off a one-point win-no-cover that was preceded by a Bye week are 8-1 SU and 9-0 ATS since 2020 when playing with revenge.

CFB Playoff Play of the Day

Rating: 3 Units

The Fighting Irish have a surprising 0-2 SUATS record vs. the Big 10 in bowl games since 2000 and since 1995, an even weirder 1-13 SU and 3-11 ATS in bowls versus .666 teams. The IU numbers are sweeter than a Hoosier Sugar Cream Pie, with Cignetti 30-6 all time vs. FBS and 6-1 SUATS vs teams .750 or greater and 5-1 ATS coming off a win over 48 plus points. IU has lived off the brilliant play of Manning Award fi nalist Kurtis Rourke (27 TD 4 INT and his top target Elijah Sarret, who rode along to Bloomington with Cignetti from James Madison. The Irish turn to veteran QB Riley Leonard (16 passing TDs and 14 rushing) plus the strong legs of Jeremiyah Love, who has scored in each game this season. The victory formula is simple: the winner of the run game vs. run defense battle should prevail. Consider that Bowl dogs who score 56 or more in their final regular season game are 5-1 SUATS since 1990, including 5-0 SUATS if they gave up 27 points or fewer on the season.

Inter-Conference Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

We know one thing for sure: at 7-6, they are currently +54 in overall point differential. Just ahead of them is 12-1 Kansas City at +56. It sure looks like a massive injustice to us. The Chargers are in the No. 6 slot in the AFC Playoff picture but are currently riding a 4-game ITS (In The Stats) losing skein). That finds them “leaking oil” as a favorite in this contest. We realize Tampa’s recent wins have come against the likes of the Giants, Panthers, and Raiders (7-32 combined this season), but the Bucs are 9-3 SU and 9-2-1 ATS in the second of consecutive AFC confrontations, including 4-0 ATS away. Meanwhile, the Chargers are 2-15-1 ATS after losing to the Chiefs when they sport a .454 or greater win percentage. Finally, Bucs’ QB Baker Mayfield is 16-2 ATS as a dog in his NFL career against opponents coming off a loss, including 8-1 SU and 9-0 ATS from Game Nine out.

AFC Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

Miami thawed out in time last week following their visit to Green Bay when they edged the Jets in overtime. They’ll invade Houston knowing they are 7-1 SUATS in post-Jets jousts. They are also 19-5 SU and 15-8-1 ATS, coming off a win behind Tua Tagovailoa when the Dolphins are facing a .615 or fewer opponent, as well as 5-1-1 ATS versus rested foes.  Houston is riding an 0-8-2 ATS ledger from Game Thirteen out when coming off a win of seven or fewer points. Finally, Miami is 14-8 SU and 14-7-1 ATS from Game Thirteen out during the regular season when both teams are coming off a win, including 5-0 SUATS with a .500 or fewer win percentage.

Inter-Conference Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

We love to fade coaches, players, and teams coming off record-setting efforts in their previous games. And one could hardly blame them for casting an eye on the Lions next week. The Bills are 0-5-1 ATS in the first of consecutive road games, while the Rams are 5-0 ATS in Game Thirteen of the season. With the Bills scoring 30-plus points in each of its last six games and the Butt Heads having surrendered 30-plus points in only two games this season, we can’t help but feel the air coming out of the Bills today. Finally, Rams head coach Sean McVay is 33-18 SU and 32-18-1 ATS from Game Twelve out versus .823 or greater opponents, including 9-3 ATS as a dog of six or fewer points.

NFC Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

Arizona is currently 4on the outside looking in from the No. 9 slot. The Achilles heel of the Seahawks is its inability to run the ball, No. 28 in the league, as opposed to the Cardinal sporting the league’s No. 6 rushing attack. Additionally, the Seahawks are 30-61 ATS in division games in which they are outrushed during the regular season and 17-48 ATS as either a favorite or a dog of fewer than five points.

Conference Championship Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

Defending MAC champs are 1-6 ATS and 1-7 SU when trying to repeat. Since 2006, Miami is 5-14 SU and 7-11-1 ATS when Ohio brings a .666-win percentage into the game. Additionally, MAC title dogs are 16-6-1 ATS and 7-1 ATS vs. teams coming off back-to-back SU and ATS wins. Finally, MAC dogs are 16-6-3 in conference championship games, including 8-1-1 ATS if they surrendered 21 or fewer points in their last game.

Inter-Conference Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

Since entering the NFL in 2020, Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert has 19,627 passing yards and can surpass Jameis Winston (19,737 passing yards) for the second-most passing yards by a player in his first five seasons in NFL history. Only Pro Football Hall of Famer Peyton Manning (20,618 passing yards) has more. Falcons QB Kirk Cousins checks in at 11-4 ATS in his NFL career as a dog when his team is coming off back-to-back losses, including 9-1 ATS in the last ten games. Not only is Atlanta 5-1 ATS when coming off a Bye week, but the Chargers are 1-10 ATS versus foes coming off a Bye week.

AFC Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

The Steelers are 5-0 this season against teams that are currently above .500, but just 3-3 against teams that are under .500. Adding salt to the wound, over the past 30 years, NFL teams were 107-1 when holding their opponent to one or fewer first downs and forcing at least three turnovers while also totaling at least 350 yards of offense. The Steelers did all those things on Thursday night and still lost, which means that the NFL teams are now 107-2 in that situation. With the 4-7 Bengals one loss from having the final nail pounded into its coffin by the 8-3 Steelers, we need to consider that Pittsburgh is 0-4 ATS against foes coming off a Bye week while Cincinnati is 3-0 ATS when coming off a Bye week

CFB Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

Marshall is only 3-7 ITS (In The Stats) this campaign, while JMU is 9-2 ITS. Hmm, something looks off here. Meanwhile, Jimmy is plenty mad just about now, sporting the better numbers while looking up at Marshall in the Sun Belt standings. While they can’t make it to the title game, they can get a large measure of revenge in their Last Home Game from a 26-2 loss they suffered here as double-digit chalk when the Herd last visited in 2022. The Mad Men are 2-0 SUATS in regular season finales since joining the FBS, winning by an average margin of 41 points per game. FYI: Last season, they dropped their LHG, 26-23, as a double-digit favorite to Appalachian State. They won’t make the same mistake this year since Marshall is 2-10 SUATS in the second of consecutive away games, including 1-8 SU and 0-9 ATS versus sub .750 foes

CFB Mismatch of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

The Dame is 0-3-1 ATS in the last four as favorites of 10 or fewer points, 1-5 ATS with single revenge, and 3-6 ATS in this series with a .900 or greater win percentage. Ugh. While USC  is 7-2 ATS in Last Home Games and 8-3-1 ATS as a dog in Last Home games, including 6-0 ATS with a sub .600 win percentage. Don’t forget about head coach Lincoln Riley, who stands 9-4-1 ATS as a dog, including 4-0-1 ATS with a sub .700 win percentage. Consider that playing against Notre Dame in its final game of the regular season if they own a .900 or greater win percentage and they are facing a foe who allows fewer then 22 PPG is 6-0 ATS.

NFC Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

Frisco is 6-1 ATS after hosting a division foe and 5-0 SUATS in Game Eleven of the season. Green Bay counters at 9-0 ATS in its last eleven games against AFC West opposition and 6-0 ATS after playing on the division road in its previous game. The Niners shine in underdog roles, going 63-26-4 ATS when taking points in games where they rushed for 110 or more yards. Finally, when San Francisco is an underdog and rushes the ball for 150 or more rush yards, they zoom to 36-4-1 ATS. And that’s where we’ll be this today

Big-12 Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

After a puzzling 27-3 loss to Arizona, the 4-4 Cougars will need to pull off a pair of wins in their final two games to take first-year head coach Willie Fritz to a bowl game – a win here and next week at BYU. This will be Houston’s last game at TDECU Stadium, and that’s a plus for the Cats, who are 9-3 SU and 8-4 ATS in home finales, including 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS when they surrender fewer than 24 points per game. The real trouble for the Bears is a defense that has allowed 36 points per game in its last seven games. Now, coming off four consecutive revenge wins in a row, we need to consider that playing against any college football team from Game Ten out coming off three consecutive revenge wins in a row if they are facing a .400 or greater opponent is 18-37-2 ATS in this role. When dressed as favorites of 8 or fewer points, they slip to 9-27-1 ATS, including 1-12 ATS if they won three or fewer games last season.

SEC Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

A bunch of good numbers suggests UK might get the money even if they don’t win on the scoreboard. The Cats are 6-0 ATS in LRG (Last Road Games), 6-1 ATS as conference dogs of 14 or more points, and 6-2 ATS away versus an .850 or better league foe. Meanwhile, hidden within the layers of the Longhorns’ 9-1 record is the troubling fact that head coach Steve Sarkisian is just 10-16-1 ATS when coming off back-to-back wins and facing foes who allow fewer than 24 points per game, including 5-12-1 ATS from Game Six out. The line is hovering around three TDs at the moment, but if you’re still having second thoughts about backing the 4-6 Wildcats with their backs to the bowl wall, then consider that Kentucky is 18-5 outright and 18-4 ATS when coming off a non-conference home game, including 9-1 SU and 10-0 ATS away.

SNF Game of the Month

Rating: 5 Units

The Bengals enter with a super-sharp 11-2 ATS mark as a dog after dressing up as a favorite the previous game and 9-2 ATS when coming off a loss and facing a foe coming off a win. They are also 9-0 ATS against AFC West opposition coming off a SUATS win, and 9-2 ATS after surrendering 35 or more points. On the other side of the field, the Bolts are 1-11 ATS as non-division home chalk of four or fewer points, 4-7 outright, and 2-9 ATS in Game Ten of the season, including 1-8 ATS as a favorite. Finally, QB Joe Burrow is 15-6 ATS as a road dog in his NFL career, including 5-0 ATS against foes coming off a SUATS win.

Big-10 Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

Wisconsin head coach Luke Fickell is 44-11 outright at home in his career, including 27-2 in games in which his team is surrendering fewer than 17.5 PPG. And when it comes to being cast in the role of big home underdog, Bucky has cashed in four of the last five tries when getting 14 or fewer points in Madison. Hopefully, someone with the Oregon contingent will see fit to mention the passing of the great John Robinson, who was a player and coach for the Ducks before moving on to USC and the Los Angeles Rams. With the Ducks eyeing up a double-revenge affair next week against the Huskies, we expect to see some feathers ruffled before they escape tonight. If you need more, there is always the fact that playing against any 10-0 CFB favorite in Game Eleven if they are facing a .555 or greater is 21-3 ATS.

Big-12 Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

What a difference a year makes: the Utes were the unanimous choice to win the Big 12, while the Buffaloes were the No. 11 choice. And now Kyle Whittingham and company are getting doubles in this matchup? We don’t think so, not with the Utes controlling the series of late, going 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings, including 4-0 ATS at Folsom Field. Utah is also 10-2 ATS when coming off an outright home dog loss and 24-6 ATS as a dog of 7 or more points under Kyle Whittingham, including 18-2 ATS versus foes that allow 17 or more PPG. Bad before-and after numbers plague the Buffaloes, who are 0-3 ATS after Texas Tech and 1-7 ATS before Kansas. The bottom line is that this is too many points to lay to the Utes, and consider that Colorado is 2-11 outright in this series, with the two wins coming by a combined total of 8 points

TNF Game of the Month

Rating: 4 Units

The Eagles have struggled lately at home as chalk in division games, just 9-10 SU and 7-12 ATS against greater than .666 foes, including 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS when coming off a double-digit ATS win. They are also 2-11 ATS when coming off a SUATS win and facing a foe coming off a SUATS loss. Conversely, the Commanders bring a 12-2 ATS mark in Game Elevens into the game when playing on the road. They have also been 11-4-2 ATS lately in Philly, including 5-1 ATS with a winning record. Finally, Washington head coach Dan Quinn is 11-6 SU and 12-5 ATS as a dog of fewer than 4 points with an Over/Under total in the game at 54 or fewer points, including 6-1 SUATS when his team owns a .555 or greater win percentage.

AFC Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

The Bills are smoking hot with four straight wins in pursuit of a fifth consecutive AFC East division title. The hiccup today, though, is they are looking dead ahead to a rematch with Kansas City next week from a 27-24 home favorite playoff loss last season. That’s not good news for a team that is 2-11 outright away in games before taking on the Chiefs, including 0-4 SU and 0-3-1 ATS in the last four tries. They are also 1-8 SUATS at AFC sites, including 0-5 SUATS in the previous five. On the opposite side of the field, the Colts are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games against AFC East opposition and 8-1 SUATS in Game Ten of the season, including 8-0 ATS when not favored by double-digits. Buffalo's horrible 4.8 Yards Per Rush defense is no match for the Colts’ 4.6 Yards Per Rush offense. Finally, the Bills are 1-9-1 ATS after scoring 30-plus points in their previous three games, including 3-6 SU and 0-8-1 ATS as a favorite.

Inter-Conference Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

Pittsburgh QB Wilson brings a 111.9 QB Rating in his two starts with Pittsburgh, thanks to three TD passes and zero INTs. That adds to the Black-and-Gold’s 5-0 ATS record in its last five games on the NFC road and 4-0 ATS mark when coming off a Bye week. The Commanders in a division sandwich, are 0-6-1 ATS in games before facing Philadelphia, and 1-5-1 ATS after taking on the Giants. Finally, the Steelers QB Russell Wilson is 18-4-1 ATS as a dog against opponents coming off back-to-back wins his NFL career, including 11-0-1 ATS as a dog of four or fewer points.

Big-12 Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

The Utes are on a rare 4-game losing streak and are clearly nowhere near the national contender we expected them to be entering the season, many good numbers are supporting them this week. Utah is 9-1 ATS as a dog in this series, 4-0 ATS in Game Nine, and 4-2 versus the number with rest. Finally, Tte Utes are 20-2-1 ATS as a dog when coming off a SUATS loss, including 5-0 ATS versus undefeated foes.?

SEC Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

Alabama is just 1-4 ATS off a home shutout win and 2-4 ATS versus single conference revenge, while new coach Kalen DeBoer stands 2-5 ATS versus .500 or greater opponents coming off a loss, including 0-4 ATS versus foes who allow 23.2 or fewer points per game. On the opposite end of the spectrum, Brian Kelly’s Tigers are 6-1 ATS off a SU loss of 14 or more points, 11-2 ATS with single conference revenge, and 6-2 ATS versus a rested foe. LSU is also 25-6 SU and 18-7 ATS during the regular season when coming off one loss, including 15-3 SUATS versus foes who allow more than 18.5 points per game. Finally, LSU is 16-2-1 ATS as a dog off a SUATS loss versus a foe off a win as a favorite who allows more than 12 points per game, including 10-0 ATS the last ten games.

NFC Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

Detroit is 6-1 for the first time since 1956. And with it, over their last four games, the Lions are now averaging 43 points per game. While being out-yarded in half of its six wins this season. It smells an awful lot like a regression to the mean, which could be in the offing for the crew from the Motor City. With the Packers 6-2 ATS against .850 or greater opponents, we smell a live dog. Finally, Green Bay is 8-4 SU and 9-3 ATS versus .800 or greater opponents, including 7-0 ATS as a dog when the Packers own a .400 or greater win percentage.

AFC Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

Baltimore currently rank dead last in the league in overall pass defense at 291.4 YPG, yards per pass play at 291.4, and No. 25 in overall team defense at 361.3 yards per game. Toss in that two of their three losses have come at the hands of the Raiders and Browns, 4-12 combined, and you can see the holes. They enter today’s game at just 1-7 ATS as a non-division home favorite of seven or more points. Enter the upstart Broncos, led by fi rst-year QB Bo Nix, who owns more wins than any rookie Denver quarterback in team history. Toss in the Broncos’ ballsy 7-1 ATS ledger as a dog of seven or more points, and we’ve nailed our side in this game. Finally, Denver HC Payton shines as a dog of more than three points, going 24-8-1 ATS in his career, including 7-0 ATS in games with an Over/Under total of 44 or fewer points. 

Big-10 Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

USC HC, Riley, is 8-20 ATS when favored on the road, including 1-10 ATS versus foes coming off consecutive losses. Washington is also 8-0 In the Stats, which puts them as a ‘play on’ dog.  Finally, Lincoln Riley is 4-18 ATS away versus conference foes coming off consecutive losses, including 0-7 ATS against foes who won seven or more games during the regular season last year

SEC Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

South Carolina has limited four of their last six foes to season-low yardage, while the Aggies have been out yarded in each of their last two victories and three of their last four games overall. Texas A&M is 1-4 ATS away versus single conference revenge and a 4-13 ATS as a Game Seven conference favorite. The Gamecocks, though, are 4-1 ATS of late when playing after a week of rest off a SU win. With the Aggies coming off that huge conference revenge victory over LSU, we back this Homecoming dog. Finally, Texas A&M is 2-10 SU and 2-9-1 ATS in its last dozen road games, including 0-8 SU and 1-6-1 ATS against winning opponents.

NFC Game of the Month

Rating: 5 Units

Chicago’s Caleb Williams continues to win games impressively in his own right. His 88.7 QB Rating tops Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes as he is now 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS to start his NFL career. He’ll need to overcome the Bears’ 2-8 ATS record in games following a Bye week. Meanwhile, the Commanders are 6-0-1 ATS in games after playing the Panthers and 6-2 ATS in this series. Washington head coach Dan Quinn is 10-3 ATS coming off a win versus foes coming off consecutive wins, including 6-1-1 ATS when his team sports a greater than .666 win-percentage Finally, NFL teams returning home coming off an outright upset win in London are 2-9 SU and 3-8 ATS, including 0-7 SU and 1-6 ATS on the road

AFC Division Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

Indianapolis is 6-1 ATS when seeking double revenge and 6-1 ATS as a conference dog of four or more points. Houston is 0-4 ATS at home when coming off back-to-back road games and 1-5 ATS mark of late as division home chalk. Additionally, playing on any NFL home favorite who went from last place to first place in its division the previous season are 47-72-3 ATS since 2004, including 36-69-2 ATS, when dressing up as a favorite of -3 or more points and when they are facing a division foe, they falter to 11-33 ATS. Throw in the fact if they are facing a division foe with the ‘Over / Under’ total in the game set at more than 41 points, they fall to 4-20 ATS.

SEC Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

Both of these teams lost their season opener, but LSU is really rounding into form and is now on a six-game win streak. Additionally, LSU is 14-2 ATS in the second of back-to-back games, including 10-3 SU and 13-0 ATS versus greater than .400 opponents. Unfortunately, A&M is also 0-9 ATS in this series when coming off consecutive wins and just 3-7 as conference home chalk of less than 5 points. Finally, SEC road dogs are 14-3 ATS this season, including 13-2 ATS in conference games.

Big-10 Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Unit

Franklin is 0-3 SUATS in his career away during the regular season games with rest against greater than .666 opponents. Wisconsin is 4-0 ATS at home in this series when both teams are off a win. Finally the Badgers are 14-2 ATS as a conference home dog with a .700 or greater win percentage, including 13-0 ATS as a dog of more than two points.

MNF Game of the Month

Rating: 5 Units

The Ravens have been ravenous since their 0-2 start, going 4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS, and 4-0 ATS in their last four games while chewing up and spitting out anyone in their path. They are also 8-2 SU and 8-1-1 ATS on the Monday Night Road, while the visiting team in this series is 6-0 ATS. The Bucs have held their own at home, winning outright in their last three games as a home dog, but a 2-6 ATS ledger on Monday nights keeps the Bay at bay. Finally, Tampa Bay QB Baker Mayfield is 8-15-1 ATS at home in his NFL career against foes coming off a win, including 1-12-1 ATS versus opponents that were favored by two or more points in their last game.

SNF Prime Time Game of the Week

SNF Prime Time Game of the Week

The Jets travel to the Steel City Sunday Night knowing they are 0-5 ATS in the first of back-back- away games, as well as 7-13 SU and 8-12 ATS in their last twenty Sunday Night games, including 0-11 SU and 2-9 ATS when coming off a loss. Mike Tomlin is opting to start Russell Wilson behind center this evening, knowing he is 37-21-3 ATS as a dog in his NFL career, including 11-6-1 ATS of late (4-0 ATS at home). Finally, the Jets are 0-13-1 ATS in games after facing the Bills

SEC Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

The Gators beat Kentucky 31 straight times, but since then, the Wildcats have taken four of the last six thanks to a defense-first mentality that can break an opponent; this year’s edition is ranked #4 in the nation at 251.5 ypg. Under Beleaguered Billy Napier, UF is 3-9 outright from Game Six on. Kentucky already smoked Ole Miss despite being a 15-point underdog and battled CFP contender Georgia to the tape before the Bulldogs prevailed. Finally, Mark Stoops is 8-3 ATS off an outright loss as a favorite, including 4-0 SUATS against .500 or greater opponents.

Big-10 Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

The defending National Champions are 17-24-1 ATS as road favorites versus .833 or greater opponents. Add to that an 0-3 spread record coming off a double-digit SU loss and a 3-8-1 ATS mark with rest, and we start to have the makings of a solid case for the Fightin’ Illini, who have covered the last three meetings in this series. The Illini are also 3-1 versus conference opponents with rest, 9-2 ATS coming off a conference home game, and 8-3-1 ATS at home versus .666 or greater opponents, including 3-0 ATS with a winning record. Finally, playing on any unrested 5-1 college football underdog of 7 or fewer points in Game Seven if they are off one win that was preceded by a loss is 14-2 ATS.

NFL Upset of the Month

Rating: 5 Units

Sitting on the home side of the field is a two-loss team that was not only the preseason favorite to win its division but is also 13-3-1 ATS as a home dog in non-division games with an inferior record since 2001. Head coach Mike McCarthy is 103-43-2 SU and 81-62-5 ATS at home in his NFL career, including 31-11-2 ATS against NFC North opponents. The newly minted Lions are just 6-9 outright in their last fifteen games against the NFC East and 6-14-1 ATS as road favorites of seven or fewer points against opponents coming off consecutive wins. Additionally, Detroit is 10-19-1 ATS as a favorite in games before taking on division rival Minnesota. Finally, Dallas is 10-1 ATS as a home dog when coming off a SU underdog win.

Inter-Conference Game of the Week

Rating: 4 Units

The Black Birds have struggled against the NFC East, just 4-8-1 ATS, including 0-4 SUATS against those coming off a win. In addition, Baltimore brings a weak 12-20 ATS ledger into this contest as a home favorite when coming off three wins. Coming off a nail-biting win over division rival Cincinnati, with a Monday Night game on deck, should find them less focused today. Washington is the first team since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger to average 30 points through five games while starting a rookie quarterback (Jayden Daniels). They are also 10-3 ATS as non-division road dogs. Finally, Washington head coach Dan Quinn is 14-5 SU and 15-4 ATS as a dog when his team is coming off a win, including 5-0 ATS as a dog of six or more points.

CFB Dog of the Month

Rating: 5 Units

The visitor in this series has covered the number three straight times. In addition, Zona is 4-1 ATS versus an undefeated conference opponent, and they are 4-1 ATS as conference dogs of less than 8 points. The Cougars have opened with five straight wins. However, BYU is just 3-12 ATS with rest and 3-9 versus the number as home chalk of less than 8 points. Finally, Arizona head coach Brent Brennan is 4-0 ATS in his career as a dog versus undefeated foes when his team allows fewer than 24.5 PPG.

ACC Game of the Week

Rating: 4 Units

The Ramblin’ Wreck is just 3-9 SU and 2-10 ATS as road chalk over the last ten years, including 0-7 ATS versus .500-or-greater opponents. Tech is also 4-8 SU and 2-9-1 ATS as a favorite against opponents seeking revenge (they beat UNC, 46-42, as a 12-point dog last season). Meanwhile, North Carolina is 3-3 this season, after a 3-0 start, however head coach Mack Brown is 9-3 ATS at home with a .500 exact record, including 6-0 ATS in conference games against .666 or greater opponents.

AFC Game of the Week

Rating: 4 Units

In the past four seasons, Houston has been 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS against the AFC East. With the Bills chomping at the bit to get back on the winning track and is 17-4-1 ATS away off an away loss, including 11-1 ATS against foes coming off an ATS loss. Finally, Buffalo is 11-2 SUATS away behind QB Josh Allen after allowing 24 or more points in its previous game, including 7-1 SU and 8-0 ATS versus non-division foes

NFL International Game of the Month

Rating: 5 Units

The last time the Vikes started 4-0, that squad managed to finish only 8-8 and missed the playoffs. Furthermore, QB Sam Darnold has struggled in today’s role, going 4-11 SUATS versus AFC East and 4-10 SUATS away against foes coming off a loss. Jets QB Aaron Rodgers has a propensity of bouncing back off the carpet when his team lost its last game outright as a favorite, going 26-14 SUATS throughout his NFL career, including 10-2 ATS as a dog. Note the Vikes have won their previous three games as an underdog, understanding that playing against any NFL non-division favorite that is coming off three outright wins in a row as an underdog if the Over/Under total in the game is 37 or more points is 17-2 ATS.

CFB Game of the Week

Rating: 4 Units

Miami is 1-9 ATS off a SU win but an ATS loss, just 3-10 versus the spread as conference road chalk of less than 12 points, and 3-9 ATS in Game 6. This could very well be a flat spot for Miami as they probably should have lost that game against Tech and now must be ready to play in front of a raucous Game Day crowd in Berkeley, which undoubtedly will be high from an entire day of partying. Finally, the Golden Bears are 8-2 ATS as home dogs of more than 6 points and 8-3 against the number when coming off a SUATS conference road loss.

SEC Game of the Month

Rating: 5 Units

Tennessee head coach is just 9-16 ATS versus conference opponents coming off a loss., including 4-12 ATS as a favorite of 13 or more points. The Vols are also 6-11 ATS as conference favorites when playing with rest, including 1-6 ATS when Tennessee is undefeated. On the other side of the coin, the Hogs are 6-1 ATS in the last seven match ups in this series, and overall, they are 8-2 ATS as conference home dogs of less than 14 points. In addition, Arkansas head coach Sam Pittman is an outstanding underdog going 20-8 ATS with his team, including 14-2 ATS in games when his team is allowing fewer than 26 PPG.

SNF Game of the Month

Rating: 5 Units

Now that they’ve avoided what the Bengals could not, an 0-3 start, they will be balls-to-the-wall focused on making up for lost time, and what better foe to start with than the scintillating 3-0 Bills? With that, Buffalo brings an 0-3-1 ATS mark in the first of consecutive road games and a 1-4 ATS record in games when coming off a Monday nighter into this game. On the flip side, the Ravens are 3-0-1 ATS as of late in this series, as well as 10-3-1 ATS in their last fourteen slugfests against the AFC North. The bottom line is that we don’t see the Ravens giving last week’s win away. Finally, 3-0 teams in Game Four that were in the playoffs last season, are 1-12 SU and 3-10 ATS as a road dog, including 0-9 SU and 1-8 ATS against foes coming off a win

AFC Game of the Week

Rating: 4 Units

Let's start with the fact that 3-0 NFL road teams in Game Four of the season are just 6-13 SU and 5-13-1 ATS if they were a playoff team last season and have won less than half of their previous 32 away games outright. In addition, the Indy is 7-1 ATS at home against the AFC North foes coming off a win, while Pitt is 0-6-1 ATS as a road favorite of fewer than five points at AFC South sites. Finally, .333 NFL home dogs of more than one point in Game Four of the season, coming off a win, are 10-5 SU and 12-2-1 ATS against foes coming off consecutive wins, including 7-0 ATS versus foes coming off a double-digit victory.

SEC Game of the Week

Rating: 4 Units

Ole Miss is 1-6 against the number as conference home chalk of more than 10 points and an equally sad 1-6 ATS versus an SEC opponent with triple revenge.  The visitor in this series is 3-0 ATS, while Kentucky is 3-0 SUATS in their 1st road game and 3-0 ATS in Game 5. In addition, the Wildcats are 4-1 ATS before a Week of Rest, 7-2 ATS as dogs of more than 11 points, and 3-1 ATS in their last four contests with triple revenge. The Wildcats own a wondrous 15-1 ATS record when coming off a non-conference contest and are facing a.500 or greater opponent. Finally, Kentucky head coach Mark Stoops is 17-5 ATS with a .500 or greater record versus undefeated foes, including 11-0 ATS against foes coming off a SUATS win.

Big-12 Game of the Month

Rating: 5 Units

Game Five matchups of 3-1 teams - each coming off a loss – the visiting team is just 2-8 ATS, including 0-7 ATS if they surrender more than 17 points per game. Another important stat to note is the fact that the host is 6-0 ATS in this series. K-State is also 4-1 ATS with single conference revenge and 4-1 ATS as Big 12 favorites of less than a TD. Finally, Kansas State is 21-4-1 ATS when coming off a double-digit ATS loss, including 18-0 ATS when the Wildcats sport a .375 or greater win percentage.

MNF Game of the Month

Rating: 5 Units

Cincinnati is 15-3-1 ATS in Game Three of the season, including 4-0-1 ATS under Taylor. They are also 4-1-1 ATS under the Monday Night lights in the last six home games. Conversely, the Commanders saw vast improvement as a passer from rookie QB Jayden Daniels when he completed 23 of 29 passes (79%) for 226 yards and 0 interceptions the previous week. He also ran for 44 yards on ten carries. The problem is the Commanders are just 2-10 ATS after hosting a division foe and 0-5-1 ATS in games after tackling the Giants. Finally, Cincinnati HC is 19-8 SU in Game Three out going 19-8 SU and 21-6 ATS – including a jaw-dropping 18-0 SU and 17-1 ATS in the last eighteen games against foes coming off a SUATS win.

AFC Game of the Week

Rating: 4 Units

Harbaugh is now 51-22-1 in all NFL games as an NFL head coach, with a 35-13 SU and 32-13-2 ATS record in non-division contests, including 17-4-2 ATS away and 8-2-1 ATS as a dog. Additionally, the visiting team is 5-0 ATS in this series, and the Bolts bring a 7-1-1 ATS log into this game in the second of back-to-back road games. Conversely, 2-0 Pittsburgh has been living on borrowed time, having been outgained in its two victories. They are also just 4-14 ATS as favorites against the AFC West, including 0-4 ATS versus greater than .700 foes. Finally, Pittsburgh is 1-5 SU and 0-5-1 ATS in its first home game of the season.

CFB Game of the Week

Rating: 4 Units

The Wildcats are 12-11-2 ATS, including 3-7 ATS versus .700 or greater foes. KSU is 7-1 ATS after a Weekday game but just 2-6 ATS as conference road chalk of 12 or fewer points. In addition, Kleiman has a revenge payback on deck against Oklahoma State. On the flip side, BYU is 4-1 ATS at home off back-to-back road games and 18-5 ATS as a dog, including 11-1 ATS over the last twelve games. Finally, BYU head coach Kalani Sitake is 9-4 SU and 10-3 ATS in games when both teams are undefeated, including 10-1 ATS versus foes coming off a double-digit win.

SEC Game of the Month

Rating: 5 Units

This is the fourth of a five-game season-opening homestand for Auburn, with Oklahoma on deck. Teams in such a role are just 3-9-1 ATS when hosting foes coming off a double-digit win, including 0-4-1 ATS when not favored by six or more points. Last year’s 52-3 home loss to the Tigers was the second-worst in head coach Sam Pittman’s career with Arkansas. Pittman is 18-8 versus the number as a dog, including 9-1 ATS when taking six or fewer points. Finally, Arkansas is 7-1 ATS as a road dog with revenge under head coach Sam Pittman, including 7-0 ATS in games in which the Razorbacks are not undefeated.

AFC Game of the Month

Rating: 5 Units

Cincinnati does not often trip up as dogs under Joe Burrow, going 17-8-2 ATS overall. They are also 5-0-1 ATS against foes coming off a Thursday contest and 13-3 ATS away versus the AFC West. Meanwhile, the Chiefs enter off last Thursday’s physical battle with Baltimore, knowing they are 1-7 ATS as favorites after the Ravens rumbles. Additionally, the defending Super Bowl champions are a lethargic 12-24 ATS mark as favorites in Game Two of the season. Finally, Cincinnati QB Joe Burrow is 14-2 SUATS in his NFL career against foes coming off a SUATS win, including 7-0 SUATS away.

NFL Game of the Week

Rating: 4 Units

The Darnold era now in full gear in the Twin Cities, it’s good to know that he is 10-7 ATS as a home dog, including 4-2 ATS in games with a total of 45 or more points. In addition, the host in this series is on 6-0 ATS while the Niners enter just 6-9 SU and 5-10 ATS in their last fifteen regular season battles with the NFC North. Finally, playing against the defending Super Bowl loser as a non-division road favorite of more than 3 points with a .700 or greater win percentage versus a .500 or greater foe if the Over/Under total is 45 or less is 10-1 ATS.

SEC Game of the Week

Rating: 4 Units

Georgia checks in with a 2-10 ATS effort before a Week of Rest and a 1-4 ATS mark as SEC road chalk of 14 or more. Coach Smart is 59-14 SU and 42-31 ATS in SEC battles, but he’s only 6-12 ATS as a conference favorite of 23 or more points. He is also 0-6 ATS as a favorite of 24 or more points when coming off a win of 35 or more points and with Alabama on deck (in two weeks). Additionally, Kentucky is 8-2 ATS as a dog of 17 or more points when seeking revenge under Mark Stoops, including 5-0 ATS versus foes coming off a win.

CFB Inter-Conference Game of the Month

Rating: 5 Units

Roadrunners are 5-1 ATS in the second of consecutive road trips and also 5-1 ATS as dogs of more than 20 points.  Jeff Traylor is 8-4 SU and 10-2 ATS when coming off a double-digit loss, including 10-0 ATS over the last ten games. The Horns are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 non-conference home games but just 1-5 ATS in the first of 3 straight contests in Austin. Texas laid 13.5 points in their previous meeting with UTSA here in 2022. Finally, Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian is 3-9-1 ATS in his career when his team is coming off two wins, including 3-7 SU and 0-9-1 ATS when facing .500 or greater opponents.

4* Inter-Conference Game of the Week

Rating: 4 Units

Chicago is just 2-8 outright in its last ten season-opening games, as well as 3-7 SU and 3-6-1 ATS in its last ten contests against the AFC South. In addition, first overall picks of the draft starting a game as a QB in Week 1 are just 2-21 ATS, including 0-14-1 ATS in their debut game since 2003.

5* NFL Game of the Month

Rating: 5 Units

These teams have gone 49-81-1 SU and 52-74-5 ATS combined since 1980, including 4-17 ATS as division -favorites. The Colts are a putrid 2-13-1 SU and 1-15 ATS in season openers, but they never squared off against a “TLN” in any of those games. However, Houston is 1-8 SU in its last nine road openers, including 0-6 in the last six games

NCAAF Game of the Month

Rating: 5 Units

After last week’s systematic dismantling of Georgia Southern, the Broncos head to Autzen Stadium with a 3-0 SUATS series record, and they catch Oregon with hated rival Oregon State on deck. Boise has shined on the road in Game Twos, going 18-7 SU and 15-9-1 ATS, including 6-0 ATS as a pick or dog and 5-0-1 ATS when coming off an away game. Sooner or later, someone’s going to awaken the sleeping giant, but we can’t lay points like this with a team that is 11-29-1 ATS as a double-digit home favorite against foes coming off a win, including 3-11 ATS against undefeated nonconference opponents. Finally, Boise State is 19-5-1 ATS as a dog versus .750 or greater opponents, including 5-0 ATS as a double-digit dog.

SEC Game of the Week

Rating: 4 Units

Kentucky has turned the offense over to former Georgia QB Brock Vandergriff, whose debut against Southern Mississippi was adequate, especially with multiple weather delays. How UK fares in SEC play will be almost entirely on his shoulders. But Brock has some help on the sidelines. Stoops is 16-2 SU and 12-6 ATS as a home favorite coming off a home game and down the stretch and Kentucky is 15-0 ATS coming off a nonconference game when facing a .500 or greater opponent.

ACC Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

Boston College has a significant revenge chip on its shoulder from a 31-29 home loss last season – a game in which the Eagles outgained the Seminoles 434-340. Anything remotely resembling that performance should improve their 4-1 ATS mark in Game One versus a conference opponent, 3-1 ATS record in this series, and 12-3 ATS log when playing on the road with ACC revenge. Finally, playing on any CFB underdog with revenge in its first game of the season facing a foe in its second game of the second game of the season if the foe won 10+ games last season is 14-2-1 ATS.

NCAAF Game of the Week

The Nittany Lions laid a 38-15 whipping on the Mountaineers, a bludgeoning in which a coach who owns a 12-6-2 ATS career mark in games as a dog can return the favor. His counterpart, PSU coach James Franklin, stands 2-2 SUATS in season-opening road games, with the two wins by six and four points. Finally, West Virginia is 19-1 outright in its last twenty home openers.

Divisional Game of the Week

Rating: 4 Units

Interestingly, of the eight teams arriving in this round of the playoffs, four of them rank in the Top 10 in both offense and defense. The Bills and the Chiefs are two of them. It’s our educated guess that two of the four defensively staunch squads will be meeting in Super Bowl LVIII, with the Chiefs looking to repeat. Patrick Mahomes is 2-0 in the postseason against Josh Allen – both wins coming at Arrowhead – but this will mark the first road playoff game in his career. So, how will he and the Chiefs respond against the hottest team in the league? That’s the question. What we know for sure is the Mahomes is also 11-1 ATS in his NFL career as an underdog, winning eight of the games outright. Head coach Andy Reid has a 7-4 ATS career mark as a playoff dog, and a 9-4 SUATS career mark in postseason games between the 3s (+3 to -3). The points are tempting for a team that owns the best ‘In the Stats’ record (13-4) at this stage of the playoffs.

Wild Card Game of the Week

Rating: 4 Units

Ironically, the only career road playoff game for QB Jalen Hurts was two years ago in a loss to Tampa Bay, where the Eagles return to the scene of the crime. In his career playoff starts, Hurts owns a 2-2 record, with 4 passing touchdowns, 2 interceptions, and an 84.7 passer rating. Lately, though, he’s been a similar mess with an 82.9 QB Rating the past four games while tossing 4 TDs and 5 INTS. And that’s critical, considering that the average turnover during the regular season is worth 4.3 points. In the playoffs, it jumps to 4.7 points. On the flip side, Baker Mayfield’s career was on life support in 2022 before his bounce-back season with the Bucs. The former No. 1 pick struggled down the stretch, but he had his best statistical season to help Tampa Bay claim the NFC South title for a third straight year. Given the success of home dogs in the Wild Card round and the fact that playing on any NFL home dog in the Wild Card Round if they are playing with same-season revenge is 9-1 ATS, so we’ll take whatever they offer up

NFC Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

The Rams will be handing the ball to Carson Wentz, who at first glance is just 2-8 SU and 3-7 ATS in his last ten starts. But he is also 7-5 SUATS in his career with teams riding a three game win streak, including 3-0 SUATS in division games. The Rams are 9-0 ATS as a division road dog, as well as 5-1 ATS in its last six division road contests. Flipping the script, the Niners enter with nothing to gain as they have the No. 1 seed throughout the NFC playoffs and figure to be resting starters for an extended period of time, with star RB Christian McCaffrey and QB Brock Purdy already nailed to the pines and QB Sam Darnold slated to start. Finally, playing on any NFL .500 or greater division road dog with triple revenge is 48-24-2 ATS since 1981 Better yet, bring them in off a win and they improve to 35-13-2, while going 19-5-1 ATS when coming off consecutive wins, including 12-1 ATS since 1998.

AFC Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

Baltimore is 6-2 outright against the eight teams seeded No. 1-7 in the current NFL playoff picture, winning the games with a +125-point differential. In fact, their only two losses were by 2 points against Cleveland and 3 points in an overtime loss to Indianapolis. The Steelers can make the playoffs with a win today and a loss by either Buffalo or Jacksonville, along with four other Wild Card possibilities. However, Baltimore’s 16-2 SU and 14-4 ATS ledger at home in games coming off a win of 35-plus points – including 13-1 SU and 12-2 ATS versus sub .600 foes – Finally, Baltimore is 12-3 SU and 13-1-1 ATS as a home dog in this series when the Steelers sport a winning record.

Bowl Game of the Year

Rating: 5 Units

Liberty has averaged out-yarding teams +166 per game, and while we admit Oregon is a leap above in class for LU, the Flames are also 6-0 ATS vs foes coming off a SUATS loss as a favorite and a healthy 17-4 ATS off a win when facing a .500 or better opponent. Pac 12 Bowling Teams are 6-21 SU and 2-25 ATS vs teams coming off a win. Liberty Coach Jamey Chadwell brought his winning ways from Coastal Carolina, he’s 44-11 SU when his team has the better record, including 12-0 at Liberty. Not sold yet on the former conference and national title contender being unable to cover? Then consider that Pac-12 teams are 2-13 SU and 0-15 ATS since 2016 when coming off a SUATS loss with the only outright wins by 1 and 2 points.

AFC Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

Baltimore is just 7-7 SU and 4-10 ATS laying points in its last 14 games when coming off a win as an underdog – including 1-9 ATS against foes with at least one win on the season and 0-8 ATS as a favorite of three or more points. That fits like a glove for the Dolphins and their 16-4 ATS mark as a non-division road dog of 5 or fewer points. With Miami 8-1 ATS as a dog after dressing up as a favorite, we’ll be on the take today. Finally, Baltimore is 0-3 ATS as a home favorite behind Lamar Jackson when coming off a SU underdog win.

NFC Game of the Month

Rating: 5 Units

Cowboys currently sit one game behind both the Eagles and Lions and are looking to crash the party. They are also riding a 15-0 SU and 12-3 ATS run at Jerry’s World, including a 5-0 ATS log when coming off a loss. Detroit enters 1-5 ATS away when coming off an away game, while the ‘Boys are 5-1 ATS against the NFC North. Better yet, the Cowboys are 12-6 ATS since 1990 at home in Last Home Games against foes coming off a win, including 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS with a .600 or greater win percentage. Finally, Dallas is 10-1 SUATS as a favorite in games when coming off a loss, including 6-0 SUATS against foes coming off a win

Inter-Conference Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

While Miami is currently the No. 2 seed in the AFC Playoff Picture, they can claim the top-seed should it win out - and it would certainly deserve so, having to go up against the likes of the Cowboys here, and the Ravens and Bills to conclude the campaign. Fortunately, they are 9-2 SUATS at home coming off a home game as a favorite after dressing up as a favorite the previous game, including 6-0 ATS when not favored by seven or more points. Meanwhile, Dallas has a -4 point differential on the road in 2023 (14th in the NFL) while leading the league with a +171 point differential at home in 2023 – and that’s with a 40-point road win in its season opener at the Giants. Finally, NFL home favorites coming off a home shutout win are 10-2 SU and 9-3 ATS since 2000 against an opponent coming off an away game, including 7-0 SUATS if they sport a sub .750 win percentage

AFC Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

Both the Texans and Colts have tiebreakers over Pittsburgh, after beating the Steelers earlier this season. This means that the Steelers will have to finish with a better record than both squads – which means winning out is mandatory for Tomlin’s troops. Tomlin can also lean on his 11-7 SU mark in games against .550 or greater foes in which Pittsburgh is riding a 3-game losing streak, including 5-0 SUATS the last five games in the Steel City. Meanwhile, the Bengals lug a 2-6 SU and 3-5 ATS mark in Saturday road games into the fray, including 0-5 SUATS against foes coming off back-to-back losses – which ties nicely into the Steelers’ 4-0 SUATS ledger as a host on regular season Saturdays. And finally, Pittsburgh head coach Tomlin is 11-4 SU and 9-5-1 ATS at home in games when the Steelers sport a .500 exact win percentage, including 4-0 SUATS as a dog

Inter-Conference Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

QB Josh Allen is 15-2 SU in his last seventeen regular season games the past two years. The Bills are on a major 33-1 winning run in games in which they win the turnover battle – with the only loss coming in overtime at Philadelphia this season. And you can toss in Dallas’ 0-4 SUATS in its last four games as a road dog. Finally, Buffalo is 5-0-1 ATS against NFC East opponents coming off back-to-back wins.

NFC Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

Niners are off a fifth consecutive win following the Bye with a potential Super Bowl pairing up next week when they host the rugged Ravens. They enter 0-4 ATS as double-digit road chalk since 2012 and 7-12 SUATS of late in this series. Meanwhile, the Niners are also 0-6 ATS as a favorite in this series when Arizona sports a sub .250-win percentage. Finally, Arizona is 8-1 ATS as a home dog of +9 or more points when hosting .750 or greater opponents.

Bowl Game of the Week

Rating: 4 Units

Miami has the look of a dog that you like to see, going 64-44-2 ATS when taking points under head coach Chuck Martin, including 8-2 ATS when playing with rest, and 4-0 ATS in bowl games. Both teams closed strong down the stretch with the RedHawks riding a 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS finish while Appalachian State went 5-0 U and 4-1 ATS before suffering a 49-23 loss to Troy in the Sun Belt Championship game. However, Miami won the MAC title against Toledo, getting revenge against a Rockets team that handed the ‘Hawks one of their two losses this campaign. Although they have had their way against the MAC since joining the FBS, going 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS, the Mountaineers have struggled laying points of late and it looks like they are laying them to the wrong foe at the wrong time, as evidenced by their 7-13 SU and 8-12 ATS mark versus .846 or greater opposition, including 2-8 ATS as chalk. ASU is also staring down the barrel of a 2-6 SU and 0-7-1 ATS disaster in its last eight tries as chalk versus a foe with a better record. A call to FEMA could be in order when we get a look at Miami’s superior stats: 6-0 ATS in bowl games since 2019, 10-1 ATS as a dog after being a dog, and 4-1 ATS as pups this season with three wins coming outright. We love bowl dogs who won a conference championship game when taking on non-champions, especially when the opponent’s defense gets ripped for 5.1 Yards Per Rush. And considering the last four Cure Bowl favs went 0-4 ATS. Finally Miami head coach Chuck Martin is 6-0 ATS as a dog on a neutral field.

SNF Game of the Month

Rating: 5 Units

Philadelphia isn’t currently scheduled to face another squad with a winning record for the remainder of the regular season. That should be good news considering the fact the Eagles are 9-4 SUATS in this series in games in which they own a .750 or greater win percentage, including 5-0 ATS when Dallas enters off a win. Take the points with the better team coming off an embarrassing loss, and if you’re uncomfortable, consider that the Eagles are 16-6 SU and 14-7-1 ATS versus winning foes during the regular season behind QB Jalen Hurts, including 14-1 SU and 11-3-1 ATS the last fifteen games

NFL Conference Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

Seahawks bring artillery of their own into this battle with a jaw-dropping 24-8 SU and 25-6-1 ATS mark in games when coming off consecutive losses as a dog, including 6-2 SU and 7-0-1 ATS against foes coming off a win of 7 or more points. They are also 12-4 SU and 13-3 ATS in this series before Game Fourteen of the season, including 7-0 ATS when the Niners enter off a SUATS win. However, Seattle head coach Pete Carroll is 9-1 SUATS in his career when coming off three losses, including 5-0 SUATS with the Seahawks, as well as 8-0 SUATS against foes coming off a win.

SNF Game of the Month

Rating: 5 Units

Kansas City totes an unacceptably weak rush defense into Lambeau that surrenders 4.6 Yards Per Rush. The Chiefs are also 2-9 ATS when coming off one win, including 1-5 ATS away. In addition, the Packers are 13-4 ATS as a dog of 3-plus points under head coach Matt LaFleur, including 9-2 SU and 10-1 ATS versus .800 or fewer foes. Toss in QB Jordan Love’s 3-0 SUATS career mark at home against non-conference opposition, and finally Kansas City is 0-9 ATS as a favorite when both teams are coming off an ATS win.

PAC-12 Championship Best Bet

Rating: 4 Units

Ironically, the Huskies are the first – and only – undefeated team to land a berth in the Pac-12 championship game. While QB Michael Penix Jr. gets the lion’s share of media attention, we’d like to heap some praise on second year Washington head coach Kalen DeBoer. Not only is he 23-2 SU since taking the job in Seattle, DeBoer is 15-1 SU with the Huskies when they own a better record than their opponent, including 13-0 the last 13 games. He also fits right into tonight’s role, going 6-1 ATS in his career as an underdog, including 3-0 SUATS as a dog with the Huskies. The Ducks may have cashed more tickets in this series of late, going 14-4-1 ATS, but they’re just 3-8 SU with revenge when Washington sports a .875 or greater win percentage.

Thursday Night Game of the Month

Rating: 4 Units

Dallas looks to close the gap on the Lions, 49ers, and Eagles in the NFC Playoff Picture. For all of their success, though, there is a tax that must be paid, and tonight it comes as an inflated 9-point favorite. It’s more than they laid here to the Jets and 3-points more than what they were favored by here against New England. Topping it off, they have a same-season revenge rematch on tap with the Eagles. Pete Carroll’s crew enters this affair 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS in the last four games in this series. Carroll is also 16-2 SU and 15-3 ATS in Game Twelve of the season, including 8-0 ATS as a single-digit dog. With those boxes checked we wrap it up with the fact that Seattle is 14-1 ATS when coming off consecutive losses as an underdog, including 10-0 ATS in the last ten games

Inter-Conference Game of the Week

Rating; 5 Units

If the NFL playoffs were to begin this week, Philly would own the No. 1 seed in the NFC. However, due to its recent funk, Buffalo would be on the outside looking in as the No. 8 seed in the AFC. Remember, though, the Bills are one of only five NFL teams that rank in the Top 10 on both offense and defense this season – the Eagles do not. We top it off with the fact that Buffalo is 5-0 SUATS the last ten years against foes coming off a Monday Night game. Finally, playing against any NFL home team who upset the defending Super Bowl champion in its last game is 6-0 ATS.

AFC Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

Biggest Achilles without Joe Brr is the Bengals’ pitiable ground game which ranks last in Rush Attempts Per Game and No. 30 in overall rushing. Still, the bottom line is Pittsburgh is still 0-10 ‘In the Stats’ this season, and you won’t find us laying points with them any time soon. Not with the Bengals 5-0-2 ATS when coming off two losses, including 4-0 outright in the last four games. While this appears a strange “Best Bet” consider that the Bengals head coach Zac Taylor is 12-3 ATS as a dog against an opponent the Bengals defeated in their most recent meeting, including 12-1 ATS as a dog of more than one-point

PAC-12 Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

Bruins are just 6-14 ATS when playing against revenge in this series and are a miserable 3-7 SU and 1-8-1 ATS at home after facing USC. Add to that a 2-9 SU and 1-9-1 ATS in LHGs and we put up the stop sign in Pasadena. Meanwhile, Cal head coach Justin Wilcox is 13-5 ATS as a home dog, including 7-0 ATS when coming off a win as a favorite versus a foe coming off a win as a dog. UCLA has the nation’s second-ranked rushing defense, but Cal’s sophomore RB Jadyn Ott has averaged nearly 145 yards on the ground over the last four games and scored 6 TD’s and is the Pac-12’s leading rusher. Finally, Cal is 9-1 ATS in this series when UCLA is coming off a win

CFB Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

The NCAA stuck to their moronic stupidly needless rule not allowing a team to play in a bowl game while transitioning from D3 to D1. The week got worse when the ‘72 Dolphins popped the corks once JMU was upset by App. State. You can’t fix stupid, so JMU is finishing their promising season at Coastal against a team that likely hasn’t forgotten the 47-7 beatdown they took from J. Mad last year. Finally, Coastal Carolina is 5-2 SU and 7-0 ATS as a single-digit dog with revenge on the brain, including 4-0 SUATS when the Chants are batting .600 or better in the win column.

NFL Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

The Seahawks have allowed more yards than they’ve gained this season. and the ultra-angry Rams enter off their Bye week riding a 0-3 SUATS losing skein. Underdogs in this role are 27-10-1 ATS since 1995. It doesn’t hurt that L.A. is 9-1 ATS the last ten games in this series, including 5-0 ATS when the Seahawks arrive off a SUATS win. Meanwhile, Seattle enters just 3-8 ATS in its last eleven division roadies, including 0-3 ATS as a favorite. Tie it into the Rams’ 26-16-1 ATS record in division games behind Sean McVay, and McVay’s 4-0 ATS mark in the first of consecutive division games when coming off a loss of 7 or more points, plus McVay’s 3-0 ATS career mark as a division dog with a losing record. Finally, the Rams are 4-0-1 ATS as a dog with a week of rest.

AFC Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

The Steelers have recorded 36 fewer first downs than opponents this season, and they’ve run 75 fewer offensive plays. This game also presents a matchup of the league’s top two sack masters in T.J. Watt, who has the most sacks in NFL history in his first 100 games, against the Browns Defensive MVP leading candidate Myles Garrett, who is tied for the lead league with 11. With the Browns bringing a lethal combo of top rated Rushing Attempts Per Game (34.9) along with the league’s top-ranked defense, look for the “rally around the backup” war chant to carry them to 5-1 SUATS in their last six division home games in the Dawg Pound today. Finally, Pittsburgh head coach Mike Tomlin is 6-11 ATS away in his career against foes coming off a SU underdog win, including 2-10 ATS when the Steelers sport a .500 or greater win percentage.

SEC Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

The Vols come in 8-0 ATS in their last eight home games,7-0 ATS when coming off a conference road game, and 6-0 ATS off a loss. Despite their spotless SU record this season, Georgia is a surprising 1-6 ATS when coming off a double-digit win, and 1-4 ATS in their last five conference road games. Additionally, Defending National Champions are 26-38-1 ATS as road favorites against .700 or greater opponents, including 0-6 ATS versus foes coming off a SUATS loss. Finally, playing against any 10-0 college football double-digit favorite in Game 11 if they are facing a .666 or greater opponent is 17-2-3 ATS.

PAC-12 Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

Arizona is 0-7 ATS before ASU and 0-6 ATS in Game 11. Additionally, Arizona is 2-8-1 ATS when coming off a road favorite win. Utah has recently dominated this series, 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS. You make the Utes a road dog or pick ‘em, they are 15-3 ATS. This game, pre-season, had Utah as an eight point favorite and we think the wise guys had it right the first time. Finally, Arizona is 3-12 ATS in last home games when coming off a win, including 1-10 ATS versus sub .800 opponents.

AFC Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

Denver checks in 0-9 ATS when coming off an underdog win, 0-7 ATS of late in this series, 0-6 ATS away when coming off consecutive home games, and 1-8 ATS when they are coming off a pair upset wins. And we didn’t even mention the Broncos’ 1-5 ATS ledger on the Monday Night road. Buffalo piles on at 7-0 SUATS in its last seven games as a favorite against the AFC West. They are also 15-4 SU and 14-5 ATS against foes coming off a SU underdog win, including 8-1 SUATS at home. If that’s not enough, then check out that Buffalo is 33-12 SUATS coming off three ATS losses, including 14-1 ATS against foes coming off a win (9-0 ATS at home).

Inter-Conference Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

Teams off a Bye on a 5-0 SUATS win skein in their last five games are just 3-8 ATS since 2009, including 0-4 ATS against foes coming off back-to-back losses. Then there is Niners head coach Kyle Shanahan’s 6-1 ATS career record in games when coming off three consecutive ATS losses, including 4-0 ATS away. That makes today’s contest a minefield for surging Jacksonville. Making matters worse, the Niners rank 4th in the league in scoring defense and 5th on offense in Rush Attempts Per Game and Rushing Yards Per Game. Finally, .545 or greater NFL teams who have lost each of their last three games SUATS are 8-1 SU and 9-0 ATS since 1980 versus foes who are 3-0 SUATS in their last three games.

Sun Belt Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

Anytime Vegas makes ASU the underdog, they deliver, going 10-1-1 ATS in their Sun Belt days and 9-1-1 ATS overall when on the receiving end of points in their last 11 games. Georgia State was rocked last week by conference leader James Madison, 42-14, and that was fresh off being blown out by Georgia Southern the week before when State gave up 44 points. The Mountaineers have won two straight games, combining for 80 points in wins over Southern Miss and Marshall and ASU QB Joey Aguilar has thrown at least two TD passes in every game this season but for the loss at Wyoming. ASU is the better offensive AND defensive team. Finally, since joining FBS in 2013 the Panthers are 0-4 ATS in Last Home Games versus foes coming off a win.

BIG-10 Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

Consider that 9-0 teams hitting the road for Game 10 are 30-47-1 ATS since 1982 including 6-20-1 ATS when facing teams with competent defenses, giving up 20.5 ppg or fewer. The Nittany Lions are 4-0 ATS with double conference revenge. James Franklin is 15-5-1 ATS at home with conference vengeance on the evidence table, including 6-2 SU and 6-1-1 ATS with a win percentage of .800. Finally, Penn State is 8-3 SU against undefeated opponents under James Franklin when the Lions allow fewer than 12 PPG including 7-0 by an average win of 22.4 PPG.

AFC Game of the Week

Rating; 5 Units

The Chargers rolled past Chicago last Sunday Night when QB Herbert completed 31-of-40 passes for 298 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions to put themselves back in the playoff picture (they currently rank No. 12 in the current playoff seeding, one game back of No. 7 Cleveland for the final spot). The Jets figure to comply behind a horrible 1-7 ATS mark in games when both teams were favored the previous contest. Finally, the New York Jets are 2-9 SUATS in Game eight of the season, including 0-5 SUATS versus foes coming off a win.