Rating: 5 Units

HC Riley is 4-0 SUATS in the next contest after OU scores 28 or fewer points in their previous game. Additionally, the Sooners overall are 29-2 SU and 21-10 ATS in conference games after failing to score 27 or more points. Battles against arch-rival Nebraska seem to give OU a kick in the pants as well – a 3-0 SUATS mark after playing the Huskers, with an average score of 60-19. After last weeks lethargic win means the Sooners need to make an impressive win in order to keep their place in the CFB Playoff chase, and they get it here. Consider also that West Virginia is 13-43-1 ATS in games they lose SU as a conference dog.

Rating: 2 Units

Playing against college football’s defending national champion in a non-conference FBS game if they are in the middle of a conference sandwich are just 9-24 ATS in this role dating back to 1980. And when they tackle a non-division foe that allows fewer than 21 points per game, they fall off a cliff, going 2-14 ATS. Worst of all, they are 0-7 ATS when favored by more than 15 points in these contests.

Rating: 2 Units

Huascar Ynoa has been decent since returning from the IL but he faces Vince Velasquez tonight who shouldn’t pitch too deep after pitching 1 inning and allowing 3 runs just three days ago. The Padres are 6-14 in September while the Braves are just 1.5 games up on the Phillies for the NL East. The Braves should be playing with some urgency and their bullpen is much fresher after 2 bullpen games for the Padres yesterday while Max Fried tossed a complete game. Take the Braves.

Rating: 3 Units

MSU is 0-3-1 ATS at home in Game Four of the season after beginning the year 3-0. The Huskers own this series, going 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings. In fact, if you put tape over the names of these teams and looked at them from a statistical perspective you might have a difficult time determining which team is the favorite. Nebraska HC Scott Frost is 15-11-1 ATS on the road in his career, including 8-3-1 ATS as a dog of 18 or fewer points. Consider that 3-0 college football home favorites in Game Four who won fewer than 10 games the previous season are 4-17-1 ATS since 2000 when coming off a SUATS win.

Rating: 3 Unit Upset of the Week

The Wildcats are 19-6 ATS in this series (including 7-0 ATS as a dog of more than 4 points), and Klieman is 10-3 ATS overall at KSU when coming off a win. As for Okie State, Sanders threw only 12 passes on the blue turf, but ran for a TD while senior RB Jaylen Warren rushed for 218 yards and two scores. Mike Gundy will be asked to do something he’s struggled with throughout his career, and that’s bounce back when coming off a SU underdog win. In fact, he’s so bad, the Cowboys are 3-11 ATS in games when coming off a SUATS win and facing a foe with double revenge-exact, including 0-5 ATS the last five

Rating: 2 Units

Playing on any military team as a dog of 20 or more points off a loss of 16 or more points in which they scored 13 or fewer points if they’re facing a .500 or greater opponent is 16-1 ATS since 1990.

Rating: 2 Units

Tarik Skubal has been good at home with a 3.72 ERA and he shouldn’t go too deep into the game today so his stuff should play up a bit. Jon Heasley is making his second career start and he allowed 4 ER in 4 IP in his first start. The Tigers are 12-8 in September and 7-3 at home in September. The Tigers had plenty of chances in last night’s game but just couldn’t get runners crossing the plate for whatever reason. I mentioned yesterday how I didn’t think Comerica Park would benefit the Royals because they need home runs to score, so instead they hit two triples that resulted in runs. I don’t think that happens again tonight, I think the Tigers bounce back from their loss yesterday. Take the Tigers at home.

Rating: 4 Units

Yes, the AAC resident Tigers also remained unbeaten, enhancing their dossier as they look to move to a Power Five conference. The problem today is they tend to let down in games after pulling off upsets, going 4-11 ATS at home the next game when they sport a .500 or better record. It could be back to reality here for Memphis today against this imposing invader. Consider that  UTSA is 15-6 ATS on the road against non-conference opponents, including 4-0-1 ATS against those coming off a SUATS win

Rating: 5 Unit Big-12 Game of the Week

Iowa State has won three of the last four meetings with Baylor. The Cyclones needed to work for a 38-31 home victory over the two-win Bears in 2020, as Hall rushed for 133 yards on 31 carries and scored three total touchdowns but Purdy threw three interceptions along with three TDs. Purdy has completed 65.2 percent of his passes for 736 yards with six touchdowns and four interceptions while going 2-1 against Baylor. Though the Bears (3-0, 1-0) have outscored their first three opponents 140-34 and beat league-foe Kansas by 38 last weekend, this will be their first true test of the 2021 campaign -- a challenge that coach Dave Aranda and his Baylor squad hope they are prepared to meet. Baylor quarterback Gerry Bohanon is 51-for-70 for 664 yards with five touchdowns, without being intercepted or sacked. Meanwhile, receivers R.J. Sneed and Tyquan Thornton have combined for 27 catches, 440 yards and hree touchdowns. Abram Smith and Trestan Ebner have totaled 683 rushing yards, with the former posting five touchdowns.  Consider that playing on ay .750 or more college football home dog off consecutive wins if they scored 40 or more points in both games if they allowed 12 or fewer point in their last game (Baylor) is a perfect 17-0 ATS since 1980.

Rating: 2 Units

 The Cardinals have now won 14 straight games and I am not really sure why they are under -200 still. Jon Lester has pitched 5 straight games going 5 innings and allowing 2 or fewer runs which is big because the Cardinals bullpen is pretty worked right now. Adrian Sampson has been solid for the Cubs but he isn’t stretched out and shouldn’t go more than 5 innings. The Cubs have lost 10 of their last 12 games and they were beat bad twice yesterday. The Cards are 11-3 on the road in September and they are just 5 games up in the Wild Card. They have 8 games left so you know they see the finish line. The Cards scored at least 8 runs in both 7-inning games yesterday. Take the Cards to win their 15th straight.

Rating: 2 Units

Jose Suarez has actually been solid lately and the Mariners are just 4-3 in LA this season, so I can see why this line is where it is, but the Mariners have won 5 straight games and they are 13-7 in September including 10-3 on the road. The Angels are 7-13 in September and 3-9 at home. Logan Gilbert pitched well against the Angels in his first start against them and he has actually been better on the road. Gilbert is 1-0 with a 2.01 ERA in September (against Houston x2, Boston, and KC) and the Mariners have a much better bullpen than the Angels. Take the Mariners to keep Rollin.

Rating: 2 Units

The Brewers will be more than happy to see a team other than the Cardinals right now, and the poor hitting Mets are the perfect opponent. The Brewers have lost 5 straight games but the Mets have lost 8 of 10 games. Eric Lauer is 2-1 with a 2.15 ERA in his last 7 starts and 2-0 with a 1.09 ERA in September. The Mets struggle against lefties and they struggle on the road at 29-46 on the season. Tylor Megill is 0-3 with a 4.41 ERA on the road this season and he has really struggled in September going 1-2 with a 6.75 ERA. Take the Brewers at home.

Rating: 2 Units

The Tigers have been one of the best teams in baseball since the beginning of June and they have won 4 straight games. They are 12-7 in September and 7-2 at home, and they just came off a home sweep of the White Sox. The Royals have been decent in September going 10-11. Carlos Hernandez struggled in his last outing allowing 7 ER in 4 IP, and he struggled against the Tigers the last time he faced them. Casey Mize won’t go deep into the game, but the Tigers bullpen has been lights out recently. The Royals need home runs to score, and I don’t think Comerica Park helps that tonight. Take the Tigers.

Rating: 2 Units

The Yankees just swept the Rangers at home, but they are still just 10-11 in September. The Red Sox are finally healthy after a COVID outbreak and they have won 7 straight games. They are also 13-6 including 8-3 at home in September. Nathan Eovaldi is much better at home going 6-3 with a 2.99 ERA and he has pitched well against the Yankees every time he has faced them this season. Gerritt Cole has struggled against the Red Sox this season and he has struggled in August going 2-2 with a 4.64 ERA. The Red Sox have been one of the best home teams in the league since the trade deadline and they are 49-29 overall at home. The Red Sox are 10-6 against the Yankees this season and 6-1 at home.

Rating: 2 Units

This line seems like a mistake. The Cards are on a 12 game winning streak and I doubt they want it to stop until they clinch the Wild Card. JA Happ has actually been really good since coming over, only allowing more than 3 runs in 2 of his 9 starts. Justin Steele has been decent but he has had command issues having walked 9 batters in 14 IP this month. The Cards hit lefties well and they are 9-3 on the road in September. The Cubs have lost 8 of their last 10 games.

Rating: 2 Units

Play on an NFL home dog of 7 or more points who own a .500 or greater record, if they are facing an undefeated foe. These disrespected puppies that refuse to throw in the towel are 30-9-1 ATS since 1980 in this role. Couple Carolina’s 0-6 ATS log on Thursdays with Houston’s 8-2 SUATS all-time mark at home against visitors from the NFC South, and you have the ATS winner.

Rating: 2 Units

While ASU has a good shot at pushing this year’s SU home record to 3-0 with a win here, covering the 7-point number is a little more dicey, especially with the Mountaineers’ 3-7-1 ATS mark at home when coming off a home game, including 0-4-1 ATS versus .600 or greater opponents. Those lousy stats fit right next to Marshall’s current 6-1-1 ATS run as a non-conference road dog. Sure, App State will have revenge on its side this evening, after losing 17-7 as a 5.5-point road favorite last season. The better news is that  teams coming off a SU favorite loss, are 66-34-2 ATS, including 36-13-1 ATS as a dog – in addition to 29-10-1 ATS against a foe coming off a SUATS win.

Rating: 2 Units

 White Sox will have clinched the division with a win in the first game so I have to imagine they will be sitting some players in game 2. Zach Plesac has been solid and we lost the first game of this doubleheader so we will play the home dog again and try to turn a profit. I am a little worried this line will skyrocket with the lineups announced in game 2 if everyone sits, so we will make this play before the game ends and hope the White Sox A. don’t blow it and B. sit their starters in Game 2.

Rating: 2 Units

Logan Webb has been tone of the best pitchers in the league lately and he pitched a quality start in his only appearance against the Padres this season. Yu Darvish has been one of the worst pitchers in the league lately and he allowed 4 HR and 8 ER against the Giants 10 days ago. The Giants are 15-5 in September and they are 8-0 on the road, good for second in the league. The Padres are 5-13 in September, good for second to last in the league. Buster Posey will probably be out of the lineup but it’s the Giants lefties that pose the biggest risk to Darvish. Padres have lost 5 straight and 8 of 10, take the Giants.

Rating: 2 Units

Adrian Houser has pitched well lately and pitched well against the Cardinals this season, but Adam Wainwright has pitched just as good, if not better and he has pitched well against the Brewers this season. The Cardinals have won 11 straight including the first 3 games of this series yet they are still dogs. The Cards are 15-6 while the Brewers are 10-9 in September, so with the starting pitching matchup a wash, I am gonna take the team that’s hot. Not to mention, the Cards gave all their top bullpen pieces the day off yesterday with the blowout. Take the Cards.

Rating: 2 Units

This is the first game of a doubleheader and the Indians are home dogs in both games currently. The White Sox were just swept by the Tigers while the Indians salvaged the last game of a series against the Royals. I don’t think either team is good enough right now to sweep today and I think the Indians have the starting pitching advantage in both 7-inning games so I will go with the home dog in the Indians. If they win, we stay off game 2, if they lose we go with the Indians as home dogs again and hope to profit.

Rating: 2 Units

Normally I would stay away from betting against Walker Buehler but Coors Field is a little different. German Marquez is 8-2 with a 3.16 ERA at home this season and the Rockies are 45-28 at home. The Dodgers are just 6-5 on the road in September. If the Rockies can keep this game close going into the late innings, I think they can steal a win tonight. Take the value in the Rockies at home.

Rating: 2 Units

 I don't even need to see the lineups for this game as the wind is projected to be blowing in from left field at nearly 23 mph -- hence the tiny total. Twins pitcher Joe Ryan (2.12 ERA) has been very good in his three big-league starts, and the Cubs' Kyle Hendricks is always capable of shutting a team out.

Rating: 2 Units

 I'm a bit surprised the Sox aren't about 20 cents higher on the moneyline considering they are motivated and have ace Chris Sale on the mound. He has yet to allow more than two earned in six starts since his season debut. Mets starter Taijuan Walker has a 5.18 road ERA and hasn't personally won since July 3.

Rating: 2 Units

Josiah Gray pitched well against the Marlins when he faced them but he has been really past his past couple outings. He has allowed 10 walks in his past two starts and at least one home run in every start this season. Elieser Hernandez allowed 2 ER in 5 IP against the Nats earlier this season and he has been solid lately. The Marlins are 9-9 in September and 6-5 at home while the Nats are 7-13 and 3-5 on the road.

Rating: 2 Units

The Blue Jays achilles heal is their bullpen and today they are going with a bullpen game, starting with Julian Merryweather. Luis Patino has been much better at home this season with a 3.38 ERA, although he was hit hard by the Blue Jays in his most recent matchup. The first two games of this series had the tying runs on base in the ninth inning and I expect this game to be similar. However, I am going to go with the Rays at home because of the Blue Jays bullpen depth.

Rating: 2 Units

The Giants are the second best team in the league in September at 13-5 while the Padres are the second worst team in September at 5-11. Yet, the second best team is the underdog. Kevin Gausman has been one of the Giants best pitchers and he is better on the road at 8-2 with a 2.11 ERA. Joe Musgrove is expected to starts for the Padred. The Giants are just 1 game up on the Dodgers for the division lead while the Padres are effectively out of it 4 games back of the Wild Card. These teams split a 4 game series last week but the Giants went with bullpen games for two of those games, working their bullpen hard. They were off yesterday so they should have everyone available and their best lineup in. Take the Giants.

Rating: 2 Units

 Atlanta is using 38-year-old Jesse Chavez as an opener to be followed by inconsistent Touki Touissaint, who has an 8.10 ERA in three outings this month. Thus, the Snakes have a good chance of getting out to a lead and when you bet the runline, that's usually golden. Arizona starter Luke Weaver has a 1.95 ERA at home this year.

Rating: 2 Units

Brandon Woodruff has struggled in his past couple outings including a 6 ER outing against the Cards last month. Jake Woodford pitched well against the Brewers last month and he has pitched well since being inserted into the rotation. Take the Cards.

Rating: 2 Units

The Blue Jays were a hit away from tying the game last night in the 9th, but their bats really heated up when they started seeing pitchers they’ve seen before. Drew Rasmussen and Alek Manoah have both been very good but the Blue Jays are 15-4 in September while the Rays are 9-10 and just 5-5 at home. Take the Blue Jays to even this series at 1-1.

Rating: 2 Units

Seems a cheap price considering the Mets are 15 games under .500 on the road and the Red Sox are 47-29 at home. The Sox are 11-4 vs. NL teams this season. Boston lefty Eduardo Rodriguez is 4-2 with a 3.59 ERA in his past eight starts and on plenty of extra rest. The Sox are 8-0 in his interleague starts all-time at Fenway Park. New York's Marcus Stroman gets among the worst run support in the majors at just 3.58 per game. The Mets are 0-5 in their past five after a win.

Rating: 2 Units

he Marlins have been good at home since the trade deadline and they have now won 5 of the last 7 games against the Nats. Rogers won’t be in too long but their bullpen is capable, unlike the Nats. Take the Marlins at home.

Rating: 2 Units

We hit the Under on Monday between these teams because the wind was blowing in at Comerica Park and it's blowing in even harder today so let's try it again even though neither starting pitcher -- Dallas Keuchel and Tyler Alexander -- is all that trustworthy. The total has dropped to 9 almost everywhere so we are getting a free half-run.

Rating: 2 Units

The Cardinals have now won 8 straight games and they are 13-5 on the road since the trade deadline. The Brewers are just 3-3 against the Cardinals at home this season. Freddy Peralta pitched well in his last outing, but he had been struggling before that including allowed 4 runs in 2 IP against the Cardinals earlier in September. Jake Woodford didn’t allow a run in 5.1 IP against the Brewers earlier in September and he has been solid since being inserted into the starting rotation.

Rating: 2 Units

Cy Young favorite Robbie Ray is facing rookie prospect Shane Baz tonight in Tampa. The Rays have been hitting lefties well lately but they are just 8-10 this month while the Blue Jays are 15-3. In his last 7 starts, Ray is 3-0 with a 1.91 ERA and he just allowed 1 run in 7 IP against the Rays. He has faced the Rays 5 times this season and pitched a quality start in each one. Take the Blue Jays.

Rating: 2 Units

The Marlins are 15-11 at home since the trade deadline while the Nats are 6-15 on the road. The Marlins have won 5 of the last 7 games between these two teams, and 4 of the 6 including winning two series against the Nats in the end of August. Jesus Luzardo has been solid lately despite his poor play against the Nationals and should give the Marlins a good start. Erick Fedde has pitched well against the Marlins this season but poor overall giving the Marlins good value at home here, take the value in the Marlins at home.

Rating: 2 Units

The wind is blowing essentially straight in at around 10 mph at Comerica Park, so that could turn a homer or two into a potential long out. White Sox pitcher Carlos Rodon is good enough to blank the Tigers for six innings (Sox probably won't let him go longer than that just to ensure health for the playoffs). Don't trust Detroit rookie Matt Manning all that much, but he generally has been quite a bit better at home. Chicago slugger Jose Abreu is also sitting. The Under is 8-3-1 in White Sox's last 12 overall and 5-1 in the Tigers' past six.

Rating: 2 Units

 Carlos Rodon has pitched just 4 times since the end of July and he hasn’t pitched more than 5 innings in any of those games. Matt Manning has pitched well lately and he is much better at home. The Tigers have won 7 of their last 10 games and they are 10-7 in September including 5-2 at home. This team is just 6 games below .500 right now and while most teams don’t have much to play for, you know this team wants that 82nd win. The White Sox are just 8-8 in September and 4-5 on the road. The White Sox have won just 5 of their last 10 games and if they weren’t in the AL Central, they would be getting knocked out of the playoffs right now. Take the value in the Tigers at home.

Rating: 2 Units

First of a doubleheader so scheduled for seven innings. One of the best pitchers in the American League rather quietly for weeks has been Cleveland's Triston McKenzie. He had a 1.93 ERA in August and has followed that with a 1.50 number in September. And McKenzie has a 0.83 ERA in 21.2 innings this year vs. the Royals. KC's Brady Singer is 1-5 with a 5.05 ERA on the road. The Royals have dropped their past four as dogs.

Rating: 4 Units

Baltimore QB, Jackson is 31-11 in his NFL career, including 15-6 at home. With it, he’s been a home dog only once back in 2019 when he took 3 points from New England and beat the snot out of Tom Brady and the Patriots, 37-20. And then there is Baltimore head coach John Harbaugh, who brings a lofty 19-4 SU and 15-8 ATS career record at home during the month of September. To top it off, consider, that  defending NFL Super Bowl loser as an away pick or favorite vs. a non-division opponent that won 9 or more games last season is 1-12-1 ATS since 1990.

Rating: 5 Units

Prescott is 5-2 SUATS as an underdog when coming off a loss in his NFL career, including 4-0 SUATS the last four games. In addition, the Cowboys are 10-3 ATS as non-conference road dogs. The Chargers completed an uncanny 14 of 19 third downs in last week’s win over Washington. We don’t see that happening two weeks in a row. Not with the Bolts sporting a 6-10 SU and 3-12-1 ATS record when favored in games before taking on division rival Kansas City. In addition, NFL teams coming off a SU loss and ATS win on Thursday are 15-7 ATS away since 1986, including 5-0 ATS versus foes coming off a SU underdog win

Rating: 2 Units

Tampa Bay is 1-7 ATS in games before facing the Rams and 2-8 ATS after taking on the Cowboys. Meanwhile, Atlanta invades off a deeply disappointing 32-6 home loss to the Eagles in new head coach Arthur Smith’s debut. NFL head coaches, coming off a season-opening loss of 20 or more points are 12-7 ATS the following game, including 9-3 ATS away. With the Dirty Birds sporting an 11-1 ATS record in Game Twos, we’ll join the Super Bowl Champ fade-train today.

Rating: 2 Units

The Cardinals needed a two out, 8th inning miracle by Tyler O’Neill last night to keep their streak alive at 7 straight wins and now they get to face Jake Arrieta. Arrieta has allowed at least 3 runs in all three of his starts with the Padres. JA Happ has been pitching really well since being traded to the Cardinals going 4-2 with a 4.08 ERA. The Padres have now lost 6 of 8 games and they are 32-41 on the road this season.

Rating: 3 Units

Pittsburgh has gone 30-11-1 O/U as home favorites of < 9 pts since 2013, including an amazing 15-1 O/U in Week 11 or less in non-divisional games. In addition, the Steelers have gone a perfect 6-0 O/U when hosting these ‘West to East’ games s’12 (61.9 combined points per game!). Meanwhile, the Raiders have gone 10-1 O/U as ‘West to East’ road dogs the last 6 years when the OU line is < 50 points.

Rating: 3 Units

In the last two seasons, NFL non-division road teams have gone 90% under the Total (1-9 O/U) before a Thursday home game the following week (Houston). NFL big home favs of -12 > pts (Browns) have gone 25-55 O/U last 6 years... including 1-15 O/U in GAME 11 or less when the OU line is > 45 points. In addition game 2 big home favs of > 8 pts have gone 18-49 O/U since 1986.

Rating: 2 Units

DENVER has gone 14-33-1 O/U (70% Unders) as favorites of < 10 pts last 8 years... including 5-18 O/U when favored by > 3 and < 10 pts. And that’ll play right into JACKSONVILLE’s record of 0-6 O/U at home last 3 years (37.5 points per game) when playing off a division loss.

Rating: 3 Units

Rams’ QB Matthew Stafford’s, has a 10-15-1 ATS record as a road favorite in the NFL, including 2-9 ATS versus foes coming off a double-digit loss – with a 0-4 ATS mixer added in when Stafford is coming off a win in its last game. Colts head coach Frank Reich is 17-8-1 ATS in his NFL career as a head coach against foes coming off a win, including 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS versus greater than .750 opponents

Rating: 2 Units

In the Dolphins’ takedown of once-mighty New England, QB Tagovailoa went 16-of-27 for 202 yards, one touchdown, and an interception. He nearly had a second pick, but a Patriot defender dropped the pass. Miami is also famous for post-Patriot letdowns, just 2-11 ATS since 2013, including 0-5 ATS when coming off a win over New England.

Rating: 3 UnitUpset of the Week

Teams who beat USC are 4-15 ATS the following game against non-conference foes coming off a SUATS win. In addition, the Cardinal as a favorite in games after pulling off an upset as an underdog, are 10-22-1 ATS. HC David Shaw checks in at 3-8-2 ATS versus foes coming off a SU underdog win themselves, including 0-8-1 ATS in the last nine games. The Commodores picked up their initial win under new head coach Clark Lea last week, when they surprised the Rams at Colorado State, 24-21, as +6.5-point underdogs. It was the first time Commies put one in the win column since November of 2019. Today they’ll look to make amends for the ugly home loss to East Tennessee State that opened the season two weeks ago, knowing they are 13-2 SU and 10-5 ATS at home in lined games versus non-conference opponents when coming off a win, including 7-0 SUATS against foes also coming off a win. Also consider that .500 College football teams in Game Three of the season are 1-8 SU and 1-7-1 ATS since 1980 in non-conference games when coming off a SU win as a dog of 14 or more points.

Rating: 4 Units

SEC dogs of 7 or fewer points are 8-18 SU and 9-17 ATS in battles with the Big Ten, including 3-10 ATS of late. Also, HC Bryan Harsin, in his first season in Auburn after leaving Boise State, has a shaky 1-5 SUATS mark versus non-conference foes coming off a SUATS win. Penn State is on a 6-0 SUATS win skein since starting the 2020 season on a 0-5 skid. James Franklin is also 8-4 ATS at home versus SEC opponents – he beat Auburn, 17-13, in his only meeting from his days with Vanderbilt. In addition he is 8-2 SU at home versus undefeated opponents, including 6-1 SUATS when his team is coming off a win.  But also consider that Nittany Lions’ head coach James Franklin is 17-4 SUATS in his career when coming off consecutive SUATS wins, including 12-0 ATS over the last twelve games.

Rating: 2 Units

Georgia is just 3-8 ATS as conference home chalk of more than 17 points. Meanwhile, South Carolina is 7-1 ATS as conference dogs of more than 15 points, and the Gamecocks are playing hard under new HC Shane Beamer. Also consider that Drilling down, if the 2-0 teams managed to beat the spread in each of their first two games, they’ve gone on to beat the spread only 45% of the time in Game Three. And worse, if they are facing an avenging foe who they defeated in their most recent meeting, they fall to 38-60-2 ATS. Put these same teams up against a conference foe and they erode to 14-37-1 ATS, including 0-11 ATS when favored by more than 23 points.

Rating: 3 Units

The last time Memphis dressed up as a home dog versus the SEC, they knocked off Ole Miss, 37-24, as a 10-point underdog. Memphis HC Ryan Silverfield also took down UCF and Houston last season, winning and covering as a home dog. And in case you didn’t know, Memphis is 9-3 ATS against SEC foes who own a winning record, including 6-1 ATS at the Liberty Bowl. Finally, consider that College football home dogs in Game Three of the season who scored 40 or more points each in a pair of season-opening wins are 13-2 ATS since 1991.

Rating: 2 Units

Alabama HC, Nick Saban is 8-18 ATS as a favorite of more than 14 points with Alabama in games in which the Tide’s average rushing offense is less than its opponent’s average rushing offense, including 1-11 ATS during the first six games of the season. Florida head coach Mullen comes in a lofty home dog log (2-0 SUATS with Florida), including a glitzy 5-0 ATS when taking double-digits. Bama has won seven straight games in this series, but then again, Utah had won seven consecutive games against BYU until last week! Saban is also just 30-33 ATS with the Tide as a favorite of 17 or fewer points in SEC games, including 1-4 ATS within the first three games of the season. Getting in and out of the Swamp may not be an easy task for Alabama this Saturday, so we’ll swim against the Tide on the back of the Gators.

Rating; 3 Units

Last week’s narrow victory over the Rockets puts the Fighting Irish at just 1-5 ATS in their last six tries as home chalk. That’s not good considering Purdue is 8-1 ATS as a dog of 7 or more points, and the Boilermakers have cashed in the last three series meetings. Head coach Jeff Brohm brought back 18 starters from a squad that squandered a 2-0 start last year by going 0-4 SUATS thereafter, and they’ve taken care of business so far against Oregon State and UConn. With Notre Dame just 2-5-1 ATS in its last eight games versus Big Ten foes, and 2-6 ATS in the second of back-to-back home games, we just can’t go with Kelly’s heroes this afternoon.

Rating: 5 Units

Indiana HC, Allen stands 15-7-1 ATS when coming off a win, including 9-1 ATS the last ten. Not many good ATS numbers for Cincinnati here as the Bearcats are a surprising 3-6 ATS as road chalk. With Top 10 teams dropping like flies the last two weeks, we’ll take the Hoosiers to spring yet another upset today. Also consider that Cincinnati HC Fickell is 1-5 SU on the Big Ten road in his career, including 0-5 when his team sports a winning record.

Rating: 2 Units

Lost on the Giants at home the past two days, but going back to the well here. SF has clinched a playoff spot but is neck-and-neck with the Dodgers to avoid the wild-card game so there remains plenty of motivation. Logan Webb (10-3, 2.80) is 5-0 with 1.66 ERA at home this year. The Braves were supposed to play Thursday at home but had to wait around for a postponement and then fly across the country. Ian Anderson is a solid pitcher but has a 6.75 ERA in two starts this month. Atlanta has dropped its past four as a dog.

This is one of those times we are betting a lookahead line because we know things are going to change -- Friday's change being that Shohei Ohtani will not pitch for the Angels due to a sore arm and probably pitch won't the rest of the way; it won't apparently affect his hitting. The Halos haven't announced a starter Friday yet (likely a bullpen day), but I'd expect the A's to be favored eventually. It will be Cole Irvin for them, and he has a 3.24 ERA in four starts this year vs. LA. Oakland has won six of its past eight in Anaheim.

Rating: 3 Units

The Louisville defense is allowing 402.0 yards per game and is going to have a tough time slowing Dillon Gabriel and the UCF offense, which is averaging 583.0 yards. The Louisville offense, led by QB Malik Cunningham, won’t be able to keep up, much the same way the Cardinals fell short against Ole Miss. I’m on UCF to cover. Consider that  UCF is 6-1 ATS as non-conference road chalk, while the Cardinals have slammed into the ground as dogs of 10 or fewer points, currently on a 0-7 ATS dive.

Rating: 2 Units

Pittsburgh had to play Thursday and travel, while Miami was off. The Bucs enter on a seven-game road skid and scheduled starting pitcher Wil Crowe has a 7.04 ERA in 46.0 away innings. The Marlins have won four straight as favorites and are 6-2 in their past eight at home. Elieser Hernandez allowed one run over five in his lone outing this year vs. Pittsburgh.

The Reds apparently may get All-Star outfielder Jesse Winker back from a long IL stint so that lineup will be that much better, but the pitching matchup is incredibly one-sided in favor of the Dodgers' Walker Buehler over the Reds' Luis Castillo. Plus, Cincinnati has used its three best relievers each of the past two days so they aren't available. LA was off Thursday so no pen worries -- Buehler is capable of a complete game regardless. Frankly, you almost have to take the Dodgers the rest of the way when they are under -200. Cincinnati is 0-5 in its past five after a win.

Rating: 2 Units

The Rockies have won 4 of their last 5 games all on the road and now they face Josiah Gray and the Nats. Gray started off hot but he has struggled lately allowing at least 5 runs in his last 3 starts. German Marquez has been much better at home but he is coming off 6 shutout innings against the Phillies. The Rockies top bullpen guys got the day off yesterday and the Nats bullpen has been miserable. Take the Rockies to win their 4th straight and 5th out of 6.

Rating: 2 Units

Giants QB,  Jones is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS versus Washington, and his OC Jason Garrett was 14-5 against Washington while with the Cowboys, including 3-1 SUATS as a dog. Consider also that New York is  7-1 ATS in its last eight division road games while Washington is 1-6 ATS in its last seven as division home chalk

Rating: 2 Units

 The Giants had their nine-game winning streak snapped on Wednesday when their bullpen day didn't go well. The Padres will use the same pitching strategy for this one with Pierce Johnson expected to sever as an opener followed by Ryan Weathers. It's Kevin Gausman for the Giants, who have to keep the pedal on the medal with the Dodgers now just 1.5 games back in the NL West. Gausman has a 1.42 ERA in three starts vs. SD this year.

Rating: 2 Units

 Still irked the Royals came up one run short of a RL cover last night with the bases loaded and none out in the bottom of the ninth. That's just how my day went. Ah well. We'll go back to the RL as Oakland remains without slugger Matt Chapman again and starts Paul Blackburn, who is 0-2 with a 7.00 ERA in two road starts. Meanwhile, in four home starts vs. teams not named the White Sox, Royals left Daniel Lynch is 2-0 with a 2.59 ERA. KC is 4-1 in its past five after a loss.

Rating: 2 Units

Completely agree with John Bollman that it's hard to fathom the Giants are home dogs again -- yes, San Diego's Joe Musgrove is a fine pitcher, but he has been worse away and has a 8.10 ERA in two starts vs. the Giants. It apparently will be another bullpen game for SF. Unlike John, I'm going to take the runline safety net on San Francisco at -160.

Rating: 2 Units

Could the Orioles pull off the upset behind their best pitcher in John Means? They certainly could, but I have to take the motivated, better club in the Yanks. Means is 1-2 with a 5.81 ERA in 31 career innings vs. New York and he has allowed a whopping 25 homers in 22 starts this year. The O's also will be without one of their best hitters in Trey Mancini, a late scratch (catcher Pedro Severino also out). Yanks pitcher Nestor Cortes Jr. is 2-2 with a 2.85 ERA in nine starts this year. Mancini is the only Orioles batter with much career success off him. Baltimore is 2-9 in its past 11 at home vs. lefties.

Rating: 2 Units

I might be a TOTAL fool here, but the Reds simply can't be losing games to the Pirates as they chase the NL's second wild-card spot. They did show at least some heart in nearly rallying from a 6-0 hole in Tuesday's series opener. This is basically fading Bucs start Mitch Keller, who is 2-8 at home with an 8.19 ERA. In two starts vs. Cincinnati, he's 0-2 with an 11.88 ERA. Even with Tuesday's loss, Cincy is 9-2 in the season series. Reds starter Vladimir Gutierrez allowed one run over six in his lone outing vs. Pittsburgh.

Rating: 2 Units

 Seattle has generally been the American League runline version of Colorado in that the Mariners have been money at home on the RL. The M''s also are 30-22 in day games, while Boston is 24-28 for what that's worth. Seattle lefty Marco Gonzales is 7-0 with a 2.54 ERA in his 11 starts. The Sox are 3-10 in their last 13 road games vs. a left-handed starter. Boston rookie Tanner Houck has been a bit worse on the road (4.12 ERA) and during the day (4.08 ERA). A couple of Sox regulars are taking a seat (but none of their All-Stars).

Rating: 2 Units

The Rays are sitting four semi-regulars in Austin Meadows, Joey Wendle, Ji-Man Choi and Kevin Kiermaier (and Wander Franco remains on the IL). That's a fair amount of power on the bench other than Kiermaier, who is one of the best defensive outfielders in the majors. It's the end of a nine-game road trip, so the Rays as a whole might be dragging. It's Jays ace lefty and Cy Young contender Robbie Ray (11-5, 2.69) on the mound. He has a 2.00 ERA and 33 strikeouts in 27 innings this year vs. TB. The Jays are 6-1 in their past seven after a loss.

Rating: 2 Units

The Marlins are starting a really weak lineup with Jesus Aguilar and Jorge Alfaro injured and stellar rookie second baseman Jazz Chisholm getting the game off. Miami rookie lefty Trevor Rogers hasn't been the same guy he was in the first half of the season. The Nats have scored five runs in 10 innings off him. It's rookie lefty Josh Rogers for Washington and he has been pretty good in his first two big-league starts. This will be the first matchup between two rookie starters with the same last name since brothers Greg and Mike Maddux squared off on Sept. 29, 1986.

Rating: 2 Units

Getting a pretty cheap price on the Dodgers runline at -125. Six of their past seven wins are by multiple runs, including 5-1 Monday vs. the Snakes. Closer Kenley Jansen is available after being activated off the injured list, although I am obviously hoping there isn't a situation where he's needed in a one-run game in the ninth. Arizona starting pitcher Luke Weaver has been great at home this year but has an 8.20 ERA in four road starts. He also has a 7.25 ERA in 22.1 innings career vs. LA.

Rating: 2 Units

The Giants have one of the best bullpens in the league and they are going with a bullpen day. Yu Darvish has been extremely inconsistent and he has struggled since the sticky substance. The Padres actually have the 6th worst record in the league since the trade deadline at 14-21 and they are 5-12 on the road. The Giants are 28-11 in the same time span. Take this line before it moves.

Rating: 4 Units

Playing three road games in a row is always tough, as since 2014, sixteen other teams have been in that same situation: playing their last two preseason games on the road and then opening the regular season on the road. Those sixteen teams are 6-10 SU and 5-10-1 ATS in Week One, including 1-9 SU and 1-8-1 ATS if they failed to make the postseason the previous year. Both Baltimore and Jacksonville played their last two preseason games on the road, and then open the season on the road. That makes their Week One game their third road game in a row. MNF favorites dip to 4-12 SU and 1-15 ATS when laying less than 6 points in a game in which the Over/Under total is set at 40 or more points

Rating: 2 Units

Adam Wainwright has found his fountain of youth this season, he is 7-1 with a 1.86 ERA since the trade deadline. Rich Hill has pitched well but he doesn’t get deep into games, and I think the Mets could be drained after a late, emotional game last night. The Cardinals just took two out of three games from the Reds and they are 11-5 on the road since the trade deadline. The Mets are just 9-9 at home since the trade deadline and the Cards are solid at hitting lefties. Take the Cards.

Rating: 2 Units

Drew Rasmussen has now made five starts this season and he hasn’t allowed more than 1 run in a start yet. However, I think that ends today. The Blue Jays are as hot as can be right now and the Rays don’t really have anything to play for with the division wrapped up. The Rays have been really good at 26-12 since the trade deadline, but the Blue Jays have been right there with them at 27-15 including 15-7 at home. The Rays have only played 3 games at Rogers Centre this season and lost 2 of them. Alek Manoah is 3-0 with a 2.97 ERA at home and he isn’t your typical rookie. He should have success with the Rays being a strikeout team. Take the Blue Jays at home.

Rating: 2 Units

 We've seen this situation a few times this year where a club has to fly in for a makeup game and then fly right back out. It usually doesn't go well for that team. I don't expect it to for Minnesota, either. Aaron Judge is in the lineup for the Yanks after leaving Sunday night's game with some dizziness. New York's Luis Gil is the first Yankees pitcher to start his first four MLB appearances and allow just three total runs over those first four starts -- the previous team record was five runs by Chase Whitley in 2014 and Slow Joe Doyle in 1906. Slow Joe Doyle. That's awesome.

Rating: 5 Units

Chicago will be starting Andy Dalton, who brings a 6-19 SU and 9-16 ATS record into this game in his last twenty-five starts. With it, the Bears lug along a 1-7 ATS mark as dogs of 5 or more points and an 8-18 ATS dog log under the Sunday Night lights. On the home front, there’s a reason that head coach Sean McVay and general manager Les Snead were comfortable trading multiple first round picks for 33-year-old quarterback, Matthew Stafford, with one career Pro Bowl. The former fi rst pick in the 2009 draft, he gives them a missing ingredient and a key factor that nearly every Super Bowl winning team possesses – a top-flight quarterback. His career Passer Rating actually ranks higher than the likes of Terry Bradshaw, Brett Favre, Joe Namath, Bart Starr and Roger Staubach, all Hall of Fame Super Bowl winning QBs. Given the hard-heads’ 4-0 SUATS record in season openers under McVay and the host team going 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings in this series, consider also that NFL away teams in their first game of the season who made the playoff the previous season with 9 or fewer wins are 2-12 SU and 1-13 ATS since 2001.

Rating: 2 Units

This isn't backing the Yankees at all but fading the Mets (on the runline anyways) and their starting pitcher, Carlos Carrasco. In five home starts, he's 0-1 with a 7.45 ERA. Yankees starter Clarke Schmidt isn't very good, either, but he won't be out there long. I of course will be watching Bears-Rams but at least now I'm interested enough in this one to flip over during commercials. Wait, you can watch sports on computers now

Rating: 2 Units

New York was easily the #1 under team in the league last year, going 3-12-1 O/U (next best UNDER team was LA Rams at 6-12 O/U). New York was also the only team in the league to average less than 40 combined points per game (17.5 on offense / 22.3 on defense). With Denver laying about a field goal in this one, we note that the Broncos are on a current 3-12 O/U run when favored on the road... including a perfect 0-4 O/U in the last three years. This is one of seven different games on the Week One schedule is which the road team is favored.

Rating: 3 Units

For what it’s worth, Winston is 28-42 SU and 30-36-4 ATS as a starter in the NFL, including 12-21-3 ATS at home and 7-14-1 ATS as a favorite. However, he is 15-9-1 ATS as a dog of more than 3 points. With that, the Saints are 43-23-3 ATS as dogs under Sean Payton, including 9-2-1 ATS at home as well as 25-9-3 when seeking revenge (New Orleans lost 37-30 as a 3.5-point favorite to Green Bay in September last year). Additionally,  the Saints are 6-0-1 ATS as home dogs of 6 or fewer points.

Rating: 2 Units

Red Sox starter Nick Pivetta has turned into a bit of a pumpkin in allowing four runs in three straight outings. Boston apparently will be without JD Martinez (25 HR, 89 RBI) again, so that's a nice break for Chicago's Lance Lynn (10-4, 2.59). He has a 1.53 ERA in day games this year.

Rating: 3 Units

This is one of those familiar WEST to EAST game. In cases like this the total has gone 3-16 O/U the last 5 years: All West Time Zone road favs of > 3 pts (Niners) vs any east Time Zone opponent (Lions), when the OU line is > 42 points. There’s also a couple of ‘Game Specific’ situations that are worth noting. First, the total has gone 6-27-1 O/U since 1996 (82% Unders) when all game one non-division road favorites of 3 > points (San Francisco), when the OU line is > 41 points. Second, the total has gone 1-11 O/U last 12 years (92% Unders) when in game one both teams won 6 or less games last season (Niners + Lions), when the OU line is > 40 points. In addition, the last ten games of this Niners / Lions series have gone 2-8 O/U... with an average of only 41.7 combined ppg.

Rating: 3 Units

Tennessee has been the league’s number one home ‘OVER’ team in the last four seasons. The Titans have gone 8-1 O/U in their last nine non-conference home games, with an average OU margin of +10.0 in those games. There’s also some solid numbers for this week’s visitors. The Cardinals have gone 17-5 O/U since 2001 as non-conference road dogs of 13 < pts, and that includes a perfect 10-0 O/U in Games 9 or less. They’ve also gone 9-3 O/U in all game ones versus any non-division opponent (including 5-0 O/U on the road).

Rating: 2 Units

A second consecutive 12-win season last year meant it was the 8th time in the last nine years that Pete Carroll’s crew has cracked double-digit wins. And much like last year’s effort, the collar and cuffs didn’t match as the Seahawks allowed 232 yards more than they gained on the season, a concerning number for a 12-win team. In spite of the gaffe, the Seahawks have averaged 10.33
wins per year in 16-game schedules over the past six seasons. Their worst season in that stretch was a 9-7 fi nish in 2017. The key stat today, though, is the Seahawks are 25-10 in Eastern Time Zones behind QB Russell Wilson, including 12-1 SU and 9-2-2 ATS the last 13 games. Coupled with Indy’s 1-12 ATS mark in season openers.

Rating: 2 Units

The Falcons have endured three straight non-winning seasons fi ve times since 1990. They bounced back with winning efforts every year, making to the postseason all five times! The bad news for Philly is the Eagles allowed a league-worst 65 sacks in 2020. The good news is Philadelphia will face the league’s softest strength of schedule versus foes who were a combined .430 last season. The Falcons’ luckless 1-8 mark in one-score games, including four in their first five games (all losses), sealed Atlanta’s fate last season. Nevertheless, they were not as bad as their 4-12 record indicated. With Matty Ice now 11-2 SUATS in home openers with the Falcons, and Philly a puzzling 1-12 ATS in domed that last five years, we’ll side with the home team.

Rating: 5 Units

Liberty HC Freeze is 8-3 SUATS as a favorite in his college football head coaching career against opponents with an identical record, including 6-0 SUATS in non-conference contests. On the flip side, the Trojans have hit a rough patch, going just 8-13 SU and 9-12 ATS the last two-plus seasons, including 2-7 ATS in games when coming off a win. With both teams loaded to the gills with returning talent, look for these numbers to continue here today.

Rating: 5 Units

Arkansas State is 8-1 ATS as a nonconference home dog and now move forward with new head coach Butch Jones (popular Blake Anderson left in the off-season for Utah State) and Red Wolves cruised past Central Arkansas, 40-21, in Jones’ first game last week as a -13.5-point favorite. ASU has assumed the role as a “mission team” this season, suffering its first losing season last year after having been a bowler the past ten seasons. Today, they will look to avenge a 37-24 loss at Memphis to start last year’s campaign knowing that Red Wolves head coach Butch Jones is 18-3 SU at home in his career when coming off a win of more than 8 points. Consider that any college football non-conference home dog of 3 or more points in Game Two with 17 or more returning starters if they are seeking revenge against a foe off a win of 7 or more points is a perfect 11-0 ATS since 1990.

Rating: 3 Unit Upset of the Week

The Owls seem to have taken on a different demeanor under HC Mike Bloomgren, who has improved his team’s defense each year since coming aboard. Also, Bloomgren is 15-10-1 ATS as a dog with the Owls, including 11-4-1 ATS with revenge. Consider that Game Two dogs returning 17 starters and coming off a SUATS loss of 15 or more points, are 18-2 ATS when facing a foe coming off a loss.

Rating: 10 Unit NCAAF Game of the Year

While the Cyclones are the choice of many to meet Oklahoma
in a rematch of the Big 12 title game again his season, they are coming off
another close-call with Northern Iowa (aren’t they all – last 9 games with
the Panthers have resulted in 3 losses and 4 wins of six of fewer points).
Still, they are 9-3 ATS in games after tackling Northern Iowa when facing
foes coming off win, so look for more of the same today. In closing, if
you want some numbers, be aware that Iowa is just 2-9 ATS as a nonconference dog of less than 13 points, while the Cyclones are 6-1 ATS as
non-conference home favorites of less than 18 points. Additionally, the
host team in this series has covered four straight contests.

Rating: 3 Units

The Buffs opened with a 35-7 win over Northern Colorado last week by outgaining the Bears 281-17 on the ground, while getting TDs from four different RBs. Freshman Brendon Lewis started at QB after beating out two other freshmen (last year’s starter Steven Noyer transferred to Oregon State this summer), going 10 of 15 for 102 yards. This Colorado home game will be played at Empower Field in Denver – the home of the Broncos – instead of Boulder, but consider that Buffs HC Dorrell is s 19-8 ATS as a dog in his career, including 7-3 SU and 9-1 ATS at home.

Rating: 4 Units

ND HC Kelly is 0-4 ATS in his career versus .500 or greater MAC foes when his team is not coming off a double-digit win, and 4-8 ATS Game Two since 2008, and 5-9 ATS as a double-digit favorite when coming off a win-no-cover. Coach K must also take a closer look at an anemic Notre Dame ground game that averaged a feeble 1.9 yards per rush against FSU. Jason Candle’s Rockets just happen to be 10-4-1 ATS when undefeated and coming off a win of 28 or more points, including 5-0-1 ATS the last six away. And when the Irish find themselves favored by less than 20 points in Game Two of the season, they have no luck at all, currently standing 5-18 ATS in that role of late. And just when you thought we couldn’t heap any more abuse on Kelly? Also consider that the Irish head coach is 0-5 ATS as a favorite of more than 6 points when coming off a win before facing a Big Ten opponent.

Rating: 5 Units

Cadet "D" was best in land LY, & holding Georgia State under 180 yards may just signal repeat (allowing

Rating: 2 Units

The Giants are playing their ideal starting lineup and while they are using a bullpen day, the first two guys planned have been lights out. I used to stay away from fading the Cubs when Kyle Hendricks was on the mound, but he has really fallen off of late overall and has an ERA of 5.56 at home and 5.08 during the day (used to be money in home day games). San Francisco is 35-15 in day games. The Giants were off Thursday or I'd worry about the early Pacific time start. Will Kris Bryant homer in his return to Wrigley?

Rating: 2 Units

Since 1980 teams who won a Super Bowl as an underdog are 84-102-5 ATS as a favorite the following season, including 50-80-4 ATS versus foes that won 6 or more games the previous season. Also, last year’s champs are just 12-24-1 ATS as favorites of more than 6 points during the first two games of the season. With the Bucs being weighed down by their overdone Super Bowl rings and just 3-8 SU and 2-9 ATS on Thursdays, including 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS at home, look for the Brady bunch to fall to 0-5-2 ATS in their last seven NFC East skirmishes tonight.

Rating: 2 Units

Not risking the Braves at -220 as that is the sort of thing that got me into a funk. So, runline at -115 it is. Not clear which Washington relievers will be available after the team went with a bullpen game yesterday, and it's not like Erick Fedde (6-9, 5.27) likely will last long as the starter here. He has been hammered the past two times out and has an 11.12 ERA in three starts against the Braves this year. They counter with Huascar Ynoa, who has faced the Nationals twice this season and has yet to allow an earned run.

Rating: 2 Units

Going to change betting tactics a bit as I'm tired of late-inning losses. Will wager lines the night before where I think there's value and hit the runlines where possible ... at least for a while (not perhaps where an obvious pitching mismatch like in MIN-CLE on Thursday). Won't win as much but should lose a lot less and had been pretty successful for the most part. Not sure why I got off it. Not sure why the Blue Jays are even underdogs here with how they've played in the Bronx so far this week. Pitcher Nestor Cortes Jr. has been a huge surprise for the Yankees, but I still trust Toronto's Jose Berrios more. The Yanks haven't seen him since 2018. Cortes, meanwhile, has to turn back into a pumpkin at some point because he was garbage his first three seasons in the majors.

Rating: 2 Units

The Indians have scored just two total runs in a three-game skid to Minnesota, but this is such an apparent pitching mismatch I have to take Cleveland. The Twins go with Andrew Albers (1-1, 7.30) in place of a scratched Randy Dobnak. Albers was obliterated last time out by the Rays. I've been cashing for weeks on the Tribe's Cal Quantrill -- yeah, he was hit around a bit last time but that will happen at Fenway Park when the wind is blowing out, and he had been spectacular for about two months prior. Quantrill is 3-0 with a 2.39 ERA at home this year.

Rating: 2 Units

Rating: 2 Units

The White Sox ended an eight-game regular-season losing streak in Oakland on Tuesday and burned me, but I'm going back to the A's. First off, I'm quite sure that Sox slugger Eloy Jimenez will not play after leaving Tuesday with a knee injury. Nothing too serious, but the Pale Hose will not push the injury-prone Jimenez with such a big division lead -- shortstop Tim Anderson remains out. Second, the weak Sox pitching link (when healthy) is lefty Dallas Keuchel, who has a 5.22 overall ERA, 5.89 on the road and has allowed exactly six runs in each of his past three. The A's are 10 games over .500 against southpaws. Oakland's Frankie Montas is among the AL leaders in many pitching categories since the All-Star break.

Rating: 2 Units

The Yankees have lost 4 straight games and 8 of their last 10 while the Blue Jays have won 6 straight games and 9 of their last 10. Aaron Boone is shaking things up by moving DJ Lemahieu down in the lineup and leading off Brett Gardner but I think Alek Manoah should still have success with his wipeout slider. Luis Gil has been good too but the way these teams are trending, the wrong team is favored.