Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
03-01-10 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Memphis Grizzlies -1 | Top | 103-93 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
I am a big believer in going against streaks with baseball being the lone exception. When teams are on winning or losing streaks, we often get significant line value going in the other direction because the linesmakers have no choice but to make adjustments to try and at least even out some of he public action. Often times, we see this line value when it comes to smaller streaks but it is very subtle which the case in this game is. Memphis is coming off a win in its last game at New York but the streak in question here is the steak in its home games. The Grizzlies have lost six straight games at home which have dropped their record at home from 18-6 to 18-12. It has been a rough way to lose as holding serve on the home floor is extremely important especially this time of year. The last two losses have been by a combined five points, including a one-point loss to the Lakers, the loss before that was by 13 points but it was in overtime and the two prior to that were against Phoenix and Atlanta, both of which are ranked in the top ten in the NBA. None of these should be considered excuses for losing however it has been a tough stretch for sure. Because of this recent home skid, Memphis has a lot of ground to make up in the playoff chase as it is three and a half games out of the eighth and final spot in the Western Conference. This is a significant game to get a chunk back as the team sitting in eighth place happens to be the Blazers. Portland is closing its five-game road trip where it is 3-1 through the first four games. However, two of the wins came against the Nets and Timberwolves, the two worst teams in their respective conferences, while the other came against the shorthanded Raptors, who were without star player Chris Bosh. Another subtle streak has been the dominance of the road team in this series as the host has lost four straight meetings including the first three this season. Memphis has won the last two meetings, both in Portland, and a win here makes it a season series win which is very important for tiebreaker implications if it comes down to that. Memphis is 10-2 ATS this season coming off a double-digit win and it is 19-7 straight up this season as a favorite. 9* Memphis Grizzlies
|
|||||||
03-01-10 | Dallas Mavericks v. Charlotte Bobcats -1.5 | Top | 89-84 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
It is time for some streaks to be broken tonight. Dallas has won a season high seven straight games so the moves it made to bolster its roster have no doubt paid off. The Mavericks have also won 11 straight meetings against Charlotte and Dallas is the only team in the NBA the Bobcats have never defeated. They came close in the first meeting this season as the Bobcats lost by just a point in overtime. Going back to the Mavericks winning streak shows a solid run but five of those seven games came at home including a win last night against New Orleans. Dallas had that game in control as it built a 25-point lead but the Hornets came back and Dallas had to use a late surge to pull away. Not only is the this the second game in two nights but this team has been busy since the All-Star break as this marks the ninth game in 14 days for Dallas which is a huge amount of game in the last two weeks. Conversely, this is just the seventh game since the break for Charlotte and being off since Saturday is big considering the Bobcats are coming off a four-game roadtrip. They lost the first three games of the trip, all of which were very competitive throughout, before winning the finale at Memphis to close on a positive note. This is the first home game since defeating Cleveland on February 19th and I think Charlotte can still build on that confidence. The main reason is that the last home game before that resulted in a New Jersey loss and the Bobcats will still be playing to get rid of that sour taste. This line is in what has been a great spot for Charlotte as it is 11-5 ATS this season as a favorite of fewer than six points and as a home favorite this season, Charlotte is 15-4 straight up and with this line being right around a
|
|||||||
02-28-10 | Milwaukee Bucks v. Atlanta Hawks -7 | Top | 102-106 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
We lost a tough one with the Hawks on Friday as they held a double-digit lead in the fourth quarter against the Mavericks but lost in overtime. I am coming back with them on Sunday in what sets up to be a great situation. Atlanta is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 games following a loss and it will be ready to do it again on the home floor where the Hawks are 22-7 on the season. Atlanta has a firm grasp on a home series to start the playoffs as it is tied with Boston for fourth place in the Eastern Conference with the fifth place team five games back. The Hawks trail Orlando by only two games however for that coveted second spot which means not having to face Cleveland until the conference finals if the seedings pan out. The Hawks are 18-11 ATS at home in those 29 games and they are 25-1 ATS this season as a favorite of three or more points and 13-5 ATS as a favorite of seven or more points so this is the ideal number. Milwaukee is red hot right now as it has won six straight games while covering all six as well. However, the competition has been below average at best as wins over Miami and Charlotte were the only victories against teams currently in playoff spots and both of those teams are tied for eighth place in the Eastern Conference. Last night the Bucks throttled the Heat by 23 points but let
|
|||||||
02-28-10 | Denver Nuggets +6.5 v. Los Angeles Lakers | Top | 89-95 | Win | 100 | 6 h 1 m | Show |
This is a huge revenge game for the Lakers. Actually it is a double revenge situation as they have gotten hammered by Denver in both of the previous meetings this season by 26 and 13 points. This tells us that the Nuggets have their number this season and we are getting value because of it. The last meeting came in Los Angeles just 23 days ago and Denver was getting eight points in that one so the line has come down slightly and while that may seem like the value has gone the other way, I feel it is actually on the side of the Nuggets and for the simple reason that this line adjustment is going to get a lot of square action on Los Angeles. As a matter of fact as of Sunday morning, we are seeing this. The overall action has come in on the Nuggets yet the line has gone in the other direction and the reverse line movement is in our favor here. His game reminds me of the game last Thursday when the Nuggets went into Cleveland and won against the Cavaliers with an identical line. Denver is a perfect 7-0 ATS this season as underdogs of four points or more and a win here gets it a game closer in the Western Conference standings as the Nuggets, who are currently in second place, would trail the Lakers by just three and a half games. The Lakers have been inconsistent over the last couple months as they are 16-9 in their last 25 games which is definitely good but it is afar from great for a team that is considered the best in the league by some. They are 3-2 since the All-Star break with both losses coming against top teams Dallas and Boston. Granted Kobe Bryant was not playing in that game against the Celtics and the game against the Mavericks was on the road but Los Angeles has been a wallet killer at home this season. The Lakers are 14-17-1 ATS at home despite a solid 27-5 straight up record and this is because of the line adjustments that are made in their home games. Los Angeles is 12-9 this season against teams ranked in the top ten while Denver is 13-5 against those top ten teams and the cover numbers against winning teams tells a similar story. Denver is 16-12 ATS this season against teams with a winning record while the Lakers are 11-18 ATS against above .500 teams. The matchup does not favor Los Angeles as mentioned earlier and the Denver offense can take advantage yet again. 9* Denver Nuggets
|
|||||||
02-27-10 | Detroit Pistons v. Golden State Warriors -3.5 | Top | 88-95 | Win | 100 | 15 h 29 m | Show |
We are backing Golden St. again tonight after its poor performance on Thursday against Denver. The Warriors are playing their sixth straight home game which is a solid edge as they have not had to travel since the first day back from the All-Star break and that was just a short trip to Los Angeles to play the Lakers. Eight of their last nine games have been at home and after dropping the first two, they are 3-3 in their last six. Since before Christmas, Golden St. has been much more competitive and that has resulted in a lot of cashed tickets as it is 19-11 ATS in its last 30 games. They head out for a five-game roadtrip starting Tuesday so they will be looking to end this homestand with a win, especially after that poor performance against the Nuggets Thursday night. Speaking of the Nuggets, Detroit is coming off a loss against them last night. It was a game the Pistons were in throughout as they never trailed by more than eight points and the lead changed hands six times during the final quarter. It was a tough loss for the Pistons who at this point of the season have nothing to play for so getting up for the big teams is all they have left. That means playing a lesser team on no rest is the exact opposite and I really cannot see Detroit getting up for this one. The Pistons are 4-11-1 ATS this season when playing with no rest and this includes a 2-7 ATS mark when that second game is on the road. Making matters worse, this is the fourth game in five nights for the Pistons so fatigue really comes into play for this old team. This is the last game of this roadtrip and Detroit just wants to get back home. Golden St. lost the first meeting in this series back in December by nine points in Detroit so we have a revenge spot as well. The Warriors are also part of a great situation based on their last defeat. Play on teams in the second half of the season that are averaging 102 or more ppg going up against teams allowing between 92 and 98 ppg after a loss by 15 points or more. This situation is 42-16 ATS (72.4 percent) over the last five seasons. Golden St. is 11-3 ATS this season after allowing 120 or more ppg while the Pistons are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS win and 6-18 ATS in their last 24 games as an underdog of fewer than five points. 10* Golden St. Warriors
|
|||||||
02-26-10 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Chicago Bulls -3 | Top | 111-115 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
Portland has won its first two games of this current roadtrip which is arguably the easiest trek of the season. It started in New Jersey and the best of the bunch during the five-game trip was at 31-25 Toronto who the Blazers defeated rather easily on Wednesday. A game against the second best team is on Friday and while that may seem like another easy win, guess again. Chicago has been playing some of its best basketball of the season of late despite a hiccup in Washington on Monday. We cashed a ticket on the Wizards in that one and that was more of a play on Washington than a play against Chicago. The Wizards were playing with some new found energy not seen in a while and the Bulls did their best in giving that game away in the third quarter. Chicago bounced back with a home win against Indiana on Wednesday and with a game at the Pacers Saturday, the Bulls are in an Indiana sandwich but is certainly nothing to be concerned about as a win over Portland is most important right now. Head coach Vinny Del Negro was on the hot seat around the holiday
|
|||||||
02-26-10 | Dallas Mavericks v. Atlanta Hawks -3 | Top | 111-103 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 7 m | Show |
The Mavericks are playing some great basketball right now and the public knows this. They have won five straight games since losing at Oklahoma City in their first game back from the all-Star break. Last Friday we cashed a ticked on Dallas on the road at Orlando but we are going opposite here for a few different reasons. First off, this is the first road game since that Friday game against the Magic and prior to that, Dallas was 2-5 in their last seven road games with the only wins coming against Golden St. and New York. Dallas so far looks to be the winner for the mid-season trading award as its acquisitions have looked strong thus far. The Mavericks are coming off a home win against the Lakers on Wednesday and I don
|
|||||||
02-25-10 | Denver Nuggets v. Golden State Warriors +6 | Top | 127-112 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 38 m | Show |
Denver has won five straight meetings in this series including the first three this season but of these last five games, four were played in Denver. The one meeting that was played in Golden St., Denver won but it took overtime to get it done. In the three meetings last year, the Nuggets won the season series two games to one but the one Golden St. win took place at home where it has covered two straight. The Nuggets come into this game following a win on Sunday over Boston at home but it has been a very average run as they have alternated wins and losses in their last eight games. The first three games were played without Carmelo Anthony so that had a lot to do with it but they are just 3-2 since his return including a 1-1 record on the road that could very well be 0-2 if not for a last second win in Cleveland. Denver is just 11-14-2 ATS on the road including a poor 4-8 ATS mark against losing teams. This is a different team on the road, which is the case for most NBA teams, as Denver is 24-5 at home but just 13-14 on the road. This included just a 6-10 record when favored on the road where it is 4-12 ATS on the season. The Warriors are playing their fifth straight home game which is a solid edge as they have not had to travel since the first day back from the All-Star break and that was just a short trip to Los Angeles to play the Lakers. Seven of their last eight games have been at home and after dropping the first two, they are 3-2 in their last five. Since before Christmas, Golden St. has been much more competitive and that has resulted in a lot of cashed tickets as it is 19-10 ATS in its last 29 games. Despite a below average 12-17 home record, the Warriors are 16-13 ATS in those games including a 10-7 ATS mark as a home underdog. Golden St. has been very good this season when playing the top teams as it is 18-11 ATS against teams with a winning record. Because of the styles of both teams, which is fast-paced and up-tempo, the Warriors actually match up pretty well and their scoring ability can keep this one tight. They also fall into a great league-wide situation based on this. Play against favorites in the second half of the season in a game involving two teams that are averaging 102 or more ppg, after allowing 100 points or more two straight games. This situation is 30-10 ATS (75 percent) since 1996. Denver is just 1-10 ATS in 11 games this season as a road favorite of fewer than six points and it is 2-10 ATS this year against teams allowing 103 or more ppg. Golden St. meanwhile is 8-1 ATS this season against teams averaging 103 or more ppg. 9* Golden St. Warriors
|
|||||||
02-25-10 | Cleveland Cavaliers -2 v. Boston Celtics | Top | 108-88 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
Even though the first meeting in this series took place way back on opening night, the Cavaliers have surely not forgotten. Boston went into Cleveland and took out the Cavaliers, one of only four home losses for them the entire season. Cleveland is coming off a win on Tuesday against New Orleans and it was an important one as it snapped a season-high three-game losing streak. That was a definite momentum boost and gave the Cavaliers their first win since acquiring Antawn Jamison from Washington. They had gone 0-2 in his first two games with the team but he was inserted into the starting lineup and that paid off and now they will seek their first road win with him on the team. Cleveland is 12-4 in its last 16 road games after an average start of 7-6 away from home and this has been a team that has played up and down to the competition. Cleveland is 5-6 ATS away from home against teams with a losing record but 10-4 ATS in road games against winning teams. Boston is 3-1 since the All-Star break which is a good start as prior to that, it has a very bad run that dated all the way back to late December. After defeating Orlando on Christmas Day, the Celtics went on a 9-13 run and that is certainly not something a true championship team should be putting out there. A lot of that was due to injuries that have taken place and they are still not away from that as Paul Pierce is out once again and will miss tonight
|
|||||||
02-24-10 | Charlotte Bobcats +8 v. Utah Jazz | Top | 93-102 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 27 m | Show |
Utah is going to be without two of its best players in all likelihood as Deron Williams and Andrei Kirilenko are both listed as doubtful yet the line reflects nothing of the sort. The Jazz went down with both out of the lineup last time out and even though the opponent takes a step down in class, this is not a major step down. Utah is 4-1 since the All-Star break and most impressive in that run is the fact that all four of those wins came on the road as it is now just a game under .500 away from home this season. Playing in Salt Lake City has been beneficial once again as the Jazz are 22-8 at home this season but that record is actually something we are not accustomed to. Utah lost just four games at home two years ago and last season it went 33-8 so it is on pace to lose the most games at home since 2006-07 when it went 31-10 at EnergySolutions Arena, then known as the Delta Center. Utah was absolutely rolling at one point with a 17-2 stretch but the chemistry of that team is lost with the injury factor in place now. The depth factor is an issue as well as the Jazz have gone pretty much seven-deep the last two games with Sundiata Gaines and Kyrylo Fesenko getting limited minutes off the bench. Charlotte lost its last game against the Clippers in which it was supposed to win so now we will ride the Bobcats with a line that dictates they are supposed to lose. They dropped to 7-21 on the road and that certainly is playing into this line but they are 15-13 ATS in those 28 road games so they are doing something right in staying competitive. Here is the even bigger factor. Charlotte started the season 1-14 on the road so it is 6-7 in its last 13 road games and that is an impressive turnaround considering most teams that start out by losing on the road continue to lose on the road. Charlotte is 11-5 ATS this season as an underdog of five or more points so it is kept a vast majority of the predicted big losses within reason. Included in this recent road turnaround are wins over Miami, Cleveland and Phoenix so the Bobcats have not just done it with wins over the lesser opponents. Charlotte is tied with Milwaukee for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference while being just a game and a half pout of the sixth spot and with no other teams trailing, the only concern is winning. This is the first of five straight games against playoff contending teams so the full effort is brought to the court tonight following that fourth quarter meltdown against the Clippers on Monday. 9* Charlotte Bobcats
|
|||||||
02-24-10 | Memphis Grizzlies -1 v. Washington Wizards | Top | 99-94 | Win | 100 | 7 h 33 m | Show |
We cashed a ticket on Washington on Monday as it once again showed a brand new energy not seen all season long but I think it is becoming clear this team has a curse this season. With the Gilbert Arenas suspension and the Caron Butler and Antawn Jamison trades, the Wizards made a statement that it was out with the old and in with the new in a big rebuilding effort. I mentioned that often times, teams that lose star players are often rejuvenated as players who did not get a lot of time before are rising to the occasion. And while that may still be the case in Washington, one of those pieces is gone as the team continues to get thinner. Newly acquired Josh Howard, who came over in the Butler trade, has been lost for the season with a torn ACL. He was one of the players that was off to a great start with his new team so that was a big blow to him and the Wizards overall. Other players stepped up and they were able to overcome a big deficit against the Bulls and win in their last game but I think that renewed energy may have already hit its peak and is on its way down. Washington also won its two previous home games but one of those was against a horrible Minnesota team and the other was against Denver who was off a huge win at Cleveland the night prior. Memphis is coming off a heartbreaking loss against the Lakers last night as Kobe Bryant, in his first game back after sitting out five games, hit yet another game winning shot, this time a three-pointer with just 4.3 seconds remaining. Some will argue that this is a massive letdown spot for the Grizzlies but I believe it is just the opposite. If they had won that game, then they would be in for a letdown but instead they want and need to get it back tonight. Memphis remains on the outside looking in as it is 3.5 games back in the Western Conference
|
|||||||
02-23-10 | Phoenix Suns +6.5 v. Oklahoma City Thunder | Top | 104-102 | Win | 100 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
To start off, Steve Nash will not be in uniform for the Suns tonight and while that may be a big absence, we are getting some great line value because of it. Nash is a superstar in this league and he will be missed but to be honest, he has been struggling but the Suns have still been winning. On the season Nash is averaging 17.6 ppg and 11.2 apg, but has averaged just 12.9 ppg on 42.8 percent shooting in the month of February. Despite this, Phoenix is 6-2 in its eight February games and that shows the other talent that is available on this team. In Nash
|
|||||||
02-23-10 | Minnesota Timberwolves v. Miami Heat -7 | Top | 91-88 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 19 m | Show |
Dwayne Wade remains out for Miami but that means one thing. The rest of the players need to step up and keep this team moving forward while he is out and that looks as though it is going to be a long time. Wade has a strained calf and while he is day-to-day, it is looking like a long process before he can even think of coming back. Miami has gone 2-1 since he has been out but the two wins came against New Jersey and Memphis which are far from impressive. But there is good news coming from those wins and that is both of those came on the road and tonight
|
|||||||
02-22-10 | Atlanta Hawks +5.5 v. Utah Jazz | Top | 105-100 | Win | 100 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
Welcome to the NBA. Utah came back from a monumental 25-point deficit last night in Portland to force overtime and eventually pull out the improbable win. On the other side, Atlanta blew an 18-point lead as it fell apart in the fourth quarter and lost to Golden St. by four points. Those are two opposite results for this matchup and the key is to finding which team benefits the most from last night
|
|||||||
02-22-10 | Chicago Bulls v. Washington Wizards +2.5 | Top | 95-101 | Win | 100 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
Washington is playing with a renewed vigor and it is no random thing. The Wizards were expected to fight with Orlando this season in the NBA Southeast Division but the season got off to a horrible start with a six-game losing streak in the second week and it has been all downhill since. The big stories was the suspension of Gilbert Arenas and then came the decision to start over as the two other players of the
|
|||||||
02-21-10 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Minnesota Timberwolves +6.5 | Top | 109-107 | Win | 100 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
Playing the Knicks is not usually a big game for teams nor does it usually mean letdown after playing that game. However this case is different and I totally see a letdown spot here for the Thunder. Oklahoma City went into New York last night and won a thriller in overtime over the Knicks. That spoiled the much anticipated debut for Tracy McGrady and don
|
|||||||
02-21-10 | Boston Celtics v. Denver Nuggets -4 | Top | 105-114 | Win | 100 | 7 h 0 m | Show |
This is a great spot for Denver. We won with the Nuggets on Thursday as they were victorious in overtime over Cleveland, snapping the 13-game winning streak for the Cavaliers. Denver went out and laid an egg the next night in Washington as it was clearly a letdown situation and that alone should have the Nuggets ready to go here. The Nuggets had 25 assists and five turnovers in the win over the Cavaliers before finishing with 12 of each against the Wizards. And that is just the beginning. The last time these two teams met was close to a year ago in Denver and the Celtics ended up winning that game by 38 points which was easily the worst home loss of the season and the worst home loss for the Nuggets since 1998. Even though it took place last season, Denver has no doubt not forgotten. Boston is 3-1 on this current roadtrip with a three-game winning streak in hand and while that is solid, I
|
|||||||
02-20-10 | Charlotte Bobcats v. Milwaukee Bucks -2 | Top | 88-93 | Win | 100 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
This is a big game for Milwaukee. The Bucks pulled off the win last night in Detroit to keep pace in the Eastern Conference and sitting in ninth place, they need to obviously make a move. They trail the eighth place team by just two games and that team comes calling tonight as Charlotte heads to Milwaukee in what may not make headlines, but is a big game in the conference. Milwaukee improved to 9-19 on the road with the victory last night and that is where the Bucks are likely going to decide their playoff fate. Winning on the road is a must for any playoff caliber team and both squads tonight have shown the inability to do that consistently. Playing at home has been a different story for both sides. Milwaukee is 16-9 on the season at home and it will be looking to halt a two-game skid at the Bradley Center, both of which were bad losses. This includes its lone home game since the break, a 28-point bashing from the Rockets and that was tame as they led by 40 points at one time. The Bucks had won seven straight home games prior to this and they should feed off of last night. Twice this season they have played back-to-back games coming off a road win and playing at home and they are 2-0 in those home contests. Overall, the Bucks are 7-1 ATS this season playing with no rest on a road to home back-to-back set. Charlotte is coming off a monster win last night as it took out the Cavaliers which is becoming habit. We cashed an easy ticket on that one but tonight we go the other way. The letdown scenario can come into play but the Bobcats have proven that it tends to not letdown as the two previous wins over Cleveland resulted in wins next time out as well. This is more about playing on the other side and taking this generous line into consideration. The Bobcats are just 7-19 on the road this season but 15-11 against the number. However we need to examine that further. Of those 15 road covers, the Bobcats were getting at least 5.5 points in 10 of those and at least 3.5 points in 12 of those. In two others, they were actually favored. Conversely, Milwaukee has excellent in this area, going 11-3 ATS when favored by fewer than five points and this is how close it is to being 14-0 ATS. One of the losses came in overtime while the other two cover losses were by just a point each. The Bucks are 15-5 ATS this season when dealing with a line that is less than four points either way. This is also a revenge game for the Bucks who were beaten in Charlotte by 10 points in the last meeting and that definitely bodes well as the home team is a perfect 5-0 ATS the last five meetings. 10* Milwaukee Bucks
|
|||||||
02-19-10 | Boston Celtics v. Portland Trail Blazers -3 | Top | 96-76 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
Boston got away with one last night. Despite scoring just 11 points in the fourth quarter, the Celtics held the Lakers to one field goal over the final 7:14 to record their second straight win after the All-Star break. The defensive effort was outstanding once again and this was a big game coming in for Boston. The Celtics were seeking revenge from a last-second home loss to the Lakers earlier this season and the last time the Lakers hosted Boston, on Christmas Day 2008, they snapped the Celtics' franchise-record 19-game winning streak and gave Jackson his 1,000th victory as an NBA head coach. Boston no doubt remembered that game and they came in with some fire and held on after blowing a sizable lead. Coming off that big victory will make it difficult tonight to come out with that same amount of energy and let
|
|||||||
02-19-10 | Dallas Mavericks +6.5 v. Orlando Magic | Top | 95-85 | Win | 100 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
With all of the trades taking place the last couple days, trying to figure out which team made out the best is nearly impossible to predict without seeing the new players playing a few games with their new teams but by what we have seen the first two games, the Mavericks look as though their deal may turn out to be a winner. Granted they are just 1-1 with a loss at Oklahoma City before returning home to beat Phoenix on Wednesday, but through those two games, the new Mavericks look like a new team. Defensively, they have done the job as they clamped down on the Suns, who failed to reach 100 points for just the seventh time this season and just the second time since Christmas. The previous night they held Oklahoma City to 42.7 percent shooting and held Kevin Durant to just 9-28 shooting from the floor and a lot of that effort is because of the newly acquired Caron Butler who was on Durant most of the night and will be on Vince Carter, who is starting to heat up, on Friday. The game against the Suns was as close to a must win as you can get because Friday starts a four-game, six night stretch with what looks like only one definite win and that is at home against Indiana on Monday as the rest are all against playoff contenders. Orlando entered the All-Star break red hot despite coming off a loss against Cleveland in the last game as it went into the extended time off on a 10-3 run and the Magic started right where they left off on Wednesday as they handled the Pistons with ease by 25 points in the first game back. This is by no means a game that Orlando will be taking lightly as Dallas is one of the best teams in the Western Conference but Orlando does have a double-revenge game on deck at home against Cleveland and that is a spot that is tough to ignore and not look forward to. Dallas has had the Magic
|
|||||||
02-19-10 | Cleveland Cavaliers v. Charlotte Bobcats +4 | Top | 93-110 | Win | 100 | 21 h 0 m | Show |
It isn
|
|||||||
02-18-10 | Denver Nuggets +6 v. Cleveland Cavaliers | Top | 118-116 | Win | 100 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
This is an odd scheduling situation for both sides. The NBA had been back for two nights with two rather full cards yet neither Denver nor Cleveland has taken part as this is the first game for each side since last Thursday night. Many will argue that this will benefit the Cavaliers since they have been home for this entire time as well as for close to three weeks now going back before the break while the Nuggets have had to travel but I believe it is the other way around because of the situation. Denver had to head east in this game and on any normal scheduling situation, the Nuggets would be playing with one day or no days of rest but with the entire week off, there is to travel lag or fatigue that normally comes into play when opposing conferences are playing each other and that is extremely important. Emotionally, the news about the cancer for head coach George Karl is going to be a lift ass well. We see quite often in sports how teams rise to the occasion for fallen players or coaches and the fact that Karl will still be on the sidelines will give the Nuggets and even bigger lift. Forward Kenyon Martin, who is averaging 12.3 ppg and 9.4 rpg, should be back for the Nuggets tonight as well. He missed the last two games with tendinitis and the Nuggets are 1-4 when he's out of the lineup. Cleveland came into the All-Star break riding a 13-game winning streak so the time off actually could not have come at a worse time. As many know I am a big fan of momentum and whatever amount the Cavaliers had in the last month, can be considered gone. The Cavaliers are an NBA best 24-3 at home but in total, the home schedule has been extremely easy. As a matter of fact, the entire schedule has been tame as the Cavaliers have played the second easiest schedule in the NBA behind the Knicks. They have won 11 straight games at home but seven have come against non-playoff contenders. Wins over the Lakers and Magic were good but both came in the last minute and a one-point win over Oklahoma City and an eight-point win over Toronto were far from impressive. Another detriment for Cleveland is the recent trade for Antawn Jamison who may or may not be in uniform tonight. If he does play, it may hurt more than help at this point as we saw how a trade of this magnitude hurt Dallas in its first game. Denver is a perfect 6-0 ATS this season as underdogs of four points or more while also going 10-1-1 ATS in its last 12 games when playing with three or more days rest. This is a revenge game for Cleveland but there are too many positives on the Nuggets side to make that an edge for Cleveland. 10* Denver Nuggets
|
|||||||
02-17-10 | Phoenix Suns v. Dallas Mavericks -4 | Top | 97-107 | Win | 100 | 7 h 24 m | Show |
We look to get back on track in the NBA with a very contrarian situation. Last night Dallas was romped in Oklahoma City by 13 points while Phoenix was out winning in Memphis by 14 points in each team
|
|||||||
02-16-10 | Utah Jazz v. Houston Rockets +3.5 | Top | 104-95 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 35 m | Show |
We have seen a common trend in the NBA and that is the success of the home team coming off the All-Star break. Over the last three seasons, the home team is 22-8 both straight up and against the number in the first day back from the extended break and the logic is pretty simple in that the home players have had plenty of rest and have been able to stay put. One such team is Houston. The Rockets I feel are in an ideal spot tonight as they are getting points and for no apparent reason. Well, there are reasons for it but none that should even come into play. Houston has had a whole week to think about the 33-point loss it took at Miami prior to the break so it will be ready to start fresh and continue its solid play at home. Speaking of home, the Rockets have been home underdogs only four times all season long and none in 2010 and they are a perfect 4-0 ATS and 3-1 straight up in those games. The only loss came against the Lakers in overtime by just a point and that is a team they should be getting points against at home and not the Jazz. Utah had won nine straight games leading up to the final game before the break and that game resulted in a 15-point home loss against the Kobe Bryant-less Lakers so any momentum built was lost and if there was any left over, the six days off certainly killed that. The Jazz are just 10-12 on the road this season and my thinking is that any team with a losing road record should never be favored against a team with a winning home record unless there are some serious and vital injury issues talking place and that is not the case tonight. Yes it is a revenge game for Utah who lost at home against Houston by 17 points back in November but I take the revenge factor away on the road especially with a team that has lost more than it has won away from home on the season. That revenge factor especially holds true for Utah who is 7-18 ATS in its last 25 road games revenging a loss. Houston meanwhile is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 games following a double-digit road loss and it is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games following a game where it scored 85 or fewer points. 9* Houston Rockets
|
|||||||
02-11-10 | Orlando Magic +6 v. Cleveland Cavaliers | Top | 106-115 | Loss | -104 | 6 h 8 m | Show |
The Cavaliers have won 12 straight games and that will get the attention of a lot of the public but take a look at who Cleveland has defeated over that span. It took out the Lakers by six points but that game was not decided until the final minute. I do not see too many other impressive wins on that streak unless you count Oklahoma City, but they won that game by just a point. Miami, Memphis and Toronto are decent but they cannot be put into a category of Orlando. Overall Cleveland has played the second easiest schedule in the NBA and while it is arguably the best team in the Eastern Conference, we all saw last season how good Orlando matches up with the Cavaliers. Just a short time ago, Orlando was struggling as it went through a 2-7 stretch but it has picked things up again as it has gone 10-2 over its last 12 games with the two losses coming by a combined six points. A loss at home against Washington was because of a complete lack of focus in the second half as the Magic were outscored by 22 points in the third quarter. In reality, they should be coming into this game with an eight-game winning streak but they are still playing with some great confidence right now. Included in this recent stretch was a win at Boston and a blowout win at Chicago last night in a game that was not as close as the final score indicates as Orlando built a 29-point lead at one point. Playing last night is not an issue especially considering that the starters got a good amount of rest because of the lopsided effort. Cleveland already got its revenge form the playoff series loss from a season ago as it won in Orlando way back in November so now the revenge angle is on the other side. The Magic have played the Cavaliers extremely tough in Cleveland as only one of the last four meetings has been decided by more than four points. Orlando has a solid revenge record as well as it is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 games revenging a loss where the opponent scored 100 or more points. Also the Magic are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 games as an underdog while Cleveland is just 1-11 ATS in its last 12 games after scoring 100 or more points in five straight games. 9* Orlando Magic
|
|||||||
02-10-10 | Orlando Magic v. Chicago Bulls +5 | Top | 107-87 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
We should have cashed a ticket last night with a very similar situation as the Clippers took a four-point lead into the fourth quarter only to get outscored by 14 points. A lot of those reasons that went into last night
|
|||||||
02-10-10 | Miami Heat v. Atlanta Hawks -7 | Top | 94-76 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 57 m | Show |
This spot sets up horribly for the Heat. Miami is coming off a 33-point wins last night at home against the Rockets and now it travels to one of the toughest home courts in the league playing a team in revenge mode. Have we seen this before? As a matter of fact we saw it just last month when Miami played host to Indiana and hammered the Pacers by 30 points. It then traveled to Charlotte the following night and was absolutely blasted by the Bobcats by 39 points. The only difference is that Charlotte was not in a revenge spot as it had won the previous meeting by 10 points in Miami and that actually make
|
|||||||
02-09-10 | Utah Jazz v. Los Angeles Clippers +5 | Top | 109-99 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
Utah is rolling along right now with eight straight wins which is the longest current streak in the Western Conference and second in the NBA behind Cleveland
|
|||||||
02-06-10 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Golden State Warriors +4 | Top | 104-95 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
Oklahoma City continues to push forward as it has won four straight games including a win on the road last time out. The Thunder are 15-7 in their last 22 games and they are getting a lot of attention once again from the betting market due to their 30-19 ATS record on the season. The public is all over them once again tonight with over 85 percent of the action coming in on them as of late Saturday morning. Yet, the line is going in the other direction as it opened at -4.5 in some places and has come down across the board to -4 and even -3.5 in some places. The reverse line movement is a significant factor in the NBA especially when dealing with home underdogs. The last meeting has Oklahoma City favored by 8.5 points at home and that game was just a week ago and the line movement for a switch of venue normally is four points each way so this number should be close to even which gives us excellent value tonight. Oklahoma City has won the first two meetings in this series on the season but both of those came at home which sets up a good revenge situation for the Warriors. Golden St. is playing just the opposite of the Thunder as it has lost seven straight games but it is 4-3 ATS in those games and on the season the Warriors are 27-20-1 ATS so like Oklahoma City, they have been cashing tickets. However unlike the Thunder, they are not getting the public respect due to the losing record straight up. As mentioned, this is a double-revenge situation for Golden St. and it is 32-19 ATS revenging a road loss against opponent over the last two seasons. The defense has allowed as least 110 points in its last five games but the Warriors are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games after allowing 100 points or more five straight games this season. The value also comes into play at home where Golden St. is 8-4 ATS as a home underdog this season and against teams with a winning record it is 16-8 ATS including 7-3 ATS at home. 9* Golden St. Warriors
|
|||||||
02-05-10 | Houston Rockets v. Memphis Grizzlies -5 | Top | 101-83 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 53 m | Show |
After two straight losses, Memphis bounced back with a home win over Los Angeles on Monday, the end the Lakers roadtrip with a defeat so it wasn
|
|||||||
02-05-10 | Milwaukee Bucks +3 v. New York Knicks | Top | 114-107 | Win | 100 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
Milwaukee had its eight-game ATS winning streak snapped last time out against the Magic as a second quarter beatdown by Orlando did the Bucks in and they could not recover. It was a miserable shooting performance by the Milwaukee starters who combined to go 14-46 (30.4 percent) from the floor and that effort is simply an aberration more than the norm of late. Since going on a dismal 4-15 run to end 2009, Milwaukee has gone a decent 9-8 since then and despite going 2-8 on the road during this stretch, it has covered seven of those 10 games. Defense has keyed the recent turnaround with the Bucks allowing an average of 88 ppg on 41.7 percent shooting in the last three games after allowing an average of 104.7 ppg in the previous 10 contests. The defense will prove vital tonight but at the same time, the offense will benefit greatly from the Knicks poor defense. Milwaukee has been off since the 2nd and playing with extended rest has been beneficial as the Bucks are 9-4 ATS this season when playing with more than one day of rest. New York is coming off a big win in its last game as it took out the Wizards by 22 points but that is not necessarily a momentum builder. Last week the Knicks defeated Minnesota by 27 points at home and had another home game two days later which is the same scenario here tonight. They lost that next game against Toronto, favored by roughly the same amount as they are favored by tonight. Looking at the most recent wins by New York shows victories against Washington, Minnesota, Detroit and Philadelphia. That is a mix of some very bad teams, three of which are contenders for underachievers of the year (Wizards, Pistons and Sixers) and the Timberwolves being one of the worst teams out west. We should also take note that the previous three wins came off losses in the game prior and if there is one other factor that will make New York not show up tonight is the fact that the Knicks play at Cleveland tomorrow night. As mentioned, Milwaukee will benefit from the poor defense as it is 16-4 ATS this season against teams that are allowing 99 or more ppg. Also, the Bucks are 4-0 ATS in their last four games coming off a double-digit loss while the Knicks are 1-5 ATS in their last six games coming off a double-digit win and they are 3-7 ATS this season when favored by fewer than six points. 9* Milwaukee Bucks
|
|||||||
02-04-10 | San Antonio Spurs -1.5 v. Portland Trail Blazers | Top | 93-96 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
It is always a tough situation going against the home teams in these Thursday night games because they are usually high profile games and that make the home crowd more into the game and thus, a greater home court experience. In this case however, we will be backing the road team and for some pretty good reasons. San Antonio played last night in Sacramento and escaped with a two-point win and now plays the second of a back-to-back set. The Spurs are not at a disadvantage here however as Portland is travelling off a road game from last night as well. This is just the second game of the annual rodeo roadtrip for San Antonio and despite its length every year, it has been very positive as the team really comes together throughout the journey. The Spurs have gone a combined 40-16 on seven previous rodeo trips so it is pretty obvious they come out to play every night. Injured point guard Tony Parker participated fully in the Spurs' light shootaround Wednesday morning but he did not play last night against the Kings. He came away with no pain and was held out Wednesday just to give it some extra time. All of the injury reports have him listed a doubtful again tonight but all indications are that he will be making his return following three games missed due to that ankle injury. Head coach Greg Popovich confirmed it.
|
|||||||
02-03-10 | Oklahoma City Thunder -2 v. New Orleans Hornets | Top | 103-99 | Win | 100 | 8 h 39 m | Show |
Oklahoma City has been playing very solid all season but more so just before Christmas. The Thunder have gone 14-7 over their last 21 games and that record could be so much better. They have gone 5-4 on the road during that stretch but those losses need to be looked at closer. They all came by 10 points as the losses were by a point, two points, a point and six points in overtime. Even two of the home losses could have gone the other way as one defeat came against the Spurs in overtime while another came against New Orleans near the beginning of January. That obviously sets up a same season revenge spot here and while road revenge is not usually a motivational tool on this end, I make an exception here against the Hornets. New Orleans was making some progress as it was on a 12-5 run until disaster hit against the Bulls at home in overtime. The Hornets star point guard Chris Paul hurt his knee and he is now going to be out possibly two month and that puts a big wrench in the playoff push. The Hornets went on to win the next game against Memphis without Paul as the rest of the team rose to the occasion but they gave it back at home next time out against the Suns. Now sitting a game out of the playoff picture, it is going to be tough to get into the hunt without Paul. One of the teams they are chasing is Oklahoma City and the Thunder will be out to make sure the Hornets remain in their place. The question is if Oklahoma City deserves to be a road favorite. New Orleans is 5-1 as a home underdog this season which is extremely solid but that was with Paul in the lineup. If he was playing, New Orleans would surely be favored here so he alone is driving this line the other way. I am not concerned about that at all as Oklahoma City is 12-11 on the road, with a lot of close losses as mentioned, and it is one of only three teams in the Western Conference with a winning road record with the Lakers and Mavericks being the others. On the season, the Thunder are 17-6 as favorites including 3-1 as a road favorite so this situation sets up just fine for us. Play against home teams in the second half of the season in a game involving two teams that are between +3 and -3 in scoring differential after trailing their last two games by 10 or more points at the half. This situation is 37-13 ATS (74 percent) since 1996. Also, Oklahoma is a solid 11-4 ATS this season on the road against teams with a winning record so playing the league
|
|||||||
02-02-10 | Milwaukee Bucks +9.5 v. Orlando Magic | Top | 82-99 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 19 m | Show |
Milwaukee is coming off a romp last night in Miami as it won by 16 points, its second straight win against the Heat in the home-and-home set and third straight overall. Many will be going against the Bucks tonight thinking letdown but this team is playing very good right now as they have covered eight straight games while going 5-3 straight up. Since going on a dismal 4-15 run to end 2009, Milwaukee has gone a decent 9-7 since then and despite going 2-7 on the road during this stretch, it has covered seven of those nine games which tells us exactly which side the value lies and that is once again the case tonight. Defense has keyed the recent turnaround with the Bucks allowing an average of 84.3 ppg on 39.9 percent shooting in the last three games after allowing an average of 104.7 ppg in the previous 10 contests. Orlando is playing well once again, going 6-1 over its last seven games including wins over Atlanta and Boston on its home floor. The Magic are 18-4 this season at Amway Arena but only 11-10-1 against the number including a 5-5 ATS mark against teams with a losing record. They have lost to Indiana, Chicago and Washington this season, and just escaped Detroit on Sunday albeit on the road. Orlando has won both meetings this season against Milwaukee after taking three of four last season and while I am not a proponent of road revenge in the NBA, the last Orlando win came by 25 points and that is something the Bucks surely have not forgotten. Milwaukee actually falls into a solid situation and it is based on road revenge. Play on road underdogs of 10 or more points that have a losing record on the season that are revenging a road loss against an opponent. This situation is 99-55 ATS (64.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 9* Milwaukee Bucks
|
|||||||
02-01-10 | Los Angeles Lakers v. Memphis Grizzlies +1.5 | Top | 93-95 | Win | 100 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
The Lakers are coming off a huge come-from-behind win on Sunday over the Celtics and their one-point win resulted in a push yesterday and a letdown for tonight. Los Angeles was finally able to breakthrough with a win against a winning team during this roadtrip as it is now 4-0 against teams with a losing record and 1-2 against teams with a winning record. This is the final game of the eight-game trek and it has been a long 12 days for the Lakers who at this point are a spent team. This is obviously the second game of a back-to-back trip but also the third in four and the fourth in six so there has been a lot of minutes played as well as a lot of travel. They now must try to focus following that last second win over Boston and not look too far ahead to their return home and I think it is too much to ask for in this spot. Lakers forward Lamar Odom said it best.
|
|||||||
01-31-10 | Los Angeles Lakers v. Boston Celtics +1 | Top | 90-89 | Push | 0 | 3 h 58 m | Show |
The Lakers have burned me the last two times I have played them, against the Sixers and prior to that against the Pacers. Los Angeles has won the last three games during this roadtrip but all three have come against teams with a losing record. As a matter of fact, this is just the third game of this roadtrip against a team with a winning record and the first two resulted in outright losses, first Cleveland and then Toronto last Sunday. On the season the Lakers are 8-2 ATS on the road against losing teams but only 1-8 ATS on the road against winning teams. As a small favorite of fewer than five points Los Angeles is 0-4 ATS and when the line is anywhere from +4.5 to -4.5, the Lakers are 0-8 ATS. The Celtics return to Boston following two straight road losses against Orlando and Atlanta so they will no doubt be ready for this one. Playing the Lakers will have them ready anyway and even more so following a sweep at the hands of Los Angeles as season ago. This included a one-point loss against the Lakers at home when the Celtics were favored by seven points. Now they are getting a point and that eight-point swing is simply too much. Boston has struggled at home against the solid teams but a lot of those games came at far from full strength. Now they are healthy and ready to start a needed run. There is too much value to pass up here. The Celtics also fall into a solid situation. Play against road favorites with a winning percentage greater that .750 after having covered four of their last five against the spread and now playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 44-16 ATS (73.3 percent) since 1996. 9* Boston Celtics
|
|||||||
01-30-10 | Charlotte Bobcats v. Sacramento Kings +1 | Top | 103-96 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
Kudos to the Bobcats for winning two straight games on the road. That is only the second time they have done that this season and winning three straight will be a stretch. Defeating Phoenix was definitely a big win while the win over the Warriors last night was nothing too special. Charlotte was favored last night and it is favored again despite bringing in a 5-17 road record on the season. I do not think the Bobcats should be favored here. Laying two points to Golden St., who is 9-13 at home, is one thing but laying a point and a half to Sacramento, who is 13-9 at home, is a different matter. Charlotte has definitely been one of the pleasant surprises in the league this season but I just cannot see it winning three straight on the road against the Western Conference. Charlotte has seen solid against the number with no rest, going 9-3 ATS but most of those games were as underdogs as it is just 5-7 straight up. The Kings have certainly not had a great season but most of their problem has come on the road where they are 3-20 on the season. Overall, the run since just before Christmas has been horrid as they are 3-15 over their last 18 games but looking at those 18 games might tell us why. 13 of those games came against teams that are currently sitting in playoff positions so the schedule has been absolutely brutal. Overall Sacramento has played the fifth toughest schedule in the NBA and it really does not let up and the next few games after this are just as bad. Sacramento is also playing with no rest tonight but the situation is a good one. The Kings are only 1-5 when playing back-to-back road games but they are 3-2 when that second game is at home. Charlotte is just 1-5 ATS in its last games following a double-digit win and it is 1-4 ATS in the last five meetings in Sacramento. 9* Sacramento Kings
|
|||||||
01-29-10 | Chicago Bulls v. New Orleans Hornets -4 | Top | 108-106 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
How about this roadtrip the Bulls have had? They were spanked by Golden St. and the Clippers, two of the bottom teams in the Western Conference, but since then they have reeled off four straight wins and against quality opponents in Phoenix, Houston, San Antonio and Oklahoma City. Those are impressive to say the least and now back at .500, it is easy to say that head coach Vinny Del Negro has saved his job. Here is the kicker however. The Bulls were getting at least six points in all four of those wins but now they are getting only four points (as of Friday morning) against a team that has a better home record than all four of those previously defeated teams. This is outstanding line value as the linesmakers have taken note of this winning streak. Even though there have been four straight wins, Chicago is still 8-15 on the road this season so just because the recent past has been good, we cannot look past those first 19 road games that were simply a disaster. New Orleans is coming off a roadtrip of its own as it played four games against Western Conference foes and came away with a solid 3-1 record with the one loss coming on overtime against Denver. There was talk about making changes on this team earlier in the season as the start was slow and the Hornets were far from a playoff looking team. Since going 3-8 to start the season, New Orleans is 22-12 over its last 34 games and the home court has been even better. The Hornets went 2-2 in their first four games at New Orleans Arena but they are 14-2 since then and besides the Lakers and Cavaliers, it is the best home record in the league over the last 16 games. The Hornets are 12-4 over their last 16 games with two of those four losses coming on overtime, another coming by four points on the road and the last coming against nemesis San Antonio. The recent run has been outstanding but it is still under the radar and that provides us with excellent value on top of the Bulls recent streak. This is also a revenge game for the Hornets who lost in Chicago by 11 points just over a month ago. It is actually a triple revenge spot as New Orleans was also swept last year in the season series and all three of these losses have been by double-digits so there is some serious payback in the works. 9* New Orleans Hornets
|
|||||||
01-29-10 | Los Angeles Lakers v. Philadelphia 76ers +6.5 | Top | 99-91 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 17 m | Show |
Philadelphia is 8-8 over its last 16 games, both straight up and against the number. That is certainly nothing to start jumping up and down about however seeing that the Sixers started the season 7-22 straight up and 11-18 against the number, we have seen a huge improvement. The linesmakers are still not buying into them and why should they when they started the season 0-7 ATS as home underdogs. If there is a positive from this, they did get their first win as home underdogs when they defeated the Mavericks last time they were in that spot. Philadelphia is riding a two-game losing streak following a loss at Milwaukee on Wednesday and a return home against the reigning World Champions should get their pulses racing. This is just as much of a play on the Sixers as it is against the Lakers. I went against Los Angeles on Wednesday when it was playing at Indiana but the Lakers had a huge edge at the free throw line and the Pacers had no answer for center Andrew Bynum. Anyone who knows the Lakers knows that Bynum rarely puts solid back-to-back games together and I expect no different here. The longer this roadtrip goes on, the more tired the Lakers have to be getting. The last game was their fifth in seven days and this will be the sixth in nine days and with a game at Boston coming up on Sunday, I do not see a lot of effort this time around. Especially coming off two straight blowout wins against lesser competition that has not has the same run that that Sixers have had. It may not seem like a run to some but it has been a confidence builder and as head coach Eddie Jordan pointed out, it is only a matter of time when this team finally gets together because of all of the injuries and new faces that had hurt the chemistry early on. The Sixers are also in a very good league-wide situation. Play against favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points with a winning percentage of .750 or better that are playing their 3rd road game in five days and playing a team with a winning percentage between .250 and .400. This situation is 28-9 ATS (75.7 percent) since 1996 with the average point differential being just -1.6 ppg. 9* Philadelphia 76ers
|
|||||||
01-28-10 | Boston Celtics v. Orlando Magic -3.5 | Top | 94-96 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 47 m | Show |
This one is pretty similar to the game we saw last Thursday. In that game, the Lakers were facing Cleveland, a team they lost to at home rather handily on Christmas Day. The talk was that Los Angeles was out for revenge against the Cavaliers but the problem was that it was to have to do it on the road. Obviously that did not happen and we cashed a ticket with the anti-revenge angle of a team playing better trying to prove that the first win was no fluke, and we saw it with the Cavaliers winning again. Also on Christmas, Boston went into Orlando and handled the Magic rather easily. This time Orlando will be out for revenge but the big difference is that the Magic are now playing at home and that is the revenge angle we will follow and back this time around. It is pretty well known that Orlando is playing below average right now as it is just 5-8 in its last 13 games but it did win three straight before losing its last game at Charlotte. The majority of those losses in fact came on the road as the Magic are 2-7 in those 13 games but a much better 3-1 at home including a win over the best team to visit which was Atlanta. Boston has won two straight games but both came at home and prior to that, the Celtics were on their own bad run, going 4-8 in their previous 12 games. A lot of that was due to injuries but neither team is playing at its peak right now so we give the edge to the home team that is 16-4 at Amway Arena on the season. Speaking of revenge, Orlando is 23-11 ATS in its last 34 games revenging a home loss against the opponent. The Celtics meanwhile are 0-5 ATS in their last five games against teams with a winning percentage higher than .600 and they are just 3-13 ATS this season against teams coming off a loss and that shows us that teams are putting forth big efforts when playing the Celtics with a bad taste in their mouth. Orlando gets its revenge in another chance on national television. 10* Orlando Magic
|
|||||||
01-27-10 | Philadelphia 76ers v. Milwaukee Bucks -2 | Top | 88-91 | Win | 100 | 8 h 17 m | Show |
Milwaukee has gone through a brutal stretch of games recently. The schedulemakers have done the Bucks no favors as 11 of their last 15 games have been on the road. This included a loss last night in Dallas by just a point but even though this schedule has not been in their favor, it will not affect them here. If anything, playing at home should be a very welcomed sight. Even though the stretch has been brutal, there has been some solid rest in-between a lot of those games. This includes two days off before playing Dallas so the no-rest factor tonight does not mean anything. For that matter, Milwaukee is 7-2 ATS when playing the second game of a back-to-back set. It is also big time revenge tonight for the Bucks who have lost six straight meetings in this series and that is definitely helping with the line here. The Sixers have been one of the bigger disappointments in the NBA this season as they are currently 14 games under .500 which includes being six game under .500 on the road. Philadelphia has gotten a little better since riding a 12-game losing streak as it is 10-11 in its last 21 games but that is far from a big turnaround. This stretch has included road losses again Washington, LA Clippers and Minnesota so it hasn
|
|||||||
01-27-10 | Los Angeles Lakers v. Indiana Pacers +5.5 | Top | 118-96 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 22 m | Show |
The Lakers are coming off a relatively easy win last night in Washington and so far on the extended roadtrip, Los Angeles has alternated wins and losses. Playing the second of back-to-back games has not been kind for the Lakers this season as they are just 5-6 ATS in such situations and it is actually even worse here as this is the fifth game for Los Angeles since last Thursday so there has not been much rest along the way. The Lakers are not a good road team to begin with as they enter this game 11-8 but for the team that is supposedly the best in basketball, it is very average in my opinion. Add to the fact the Lakers have played the 26th ranked schedule in the NBA. Indiana is coming off a home-and-home split with the Sixers but in reverse as the road team won those meetings. The Pacers are not great at home this season with a 10-11 record that includes a 3-6 mark as a home underdog but a lot of that was when Indiana was slumping badly as it has won its last two games as a home underdog outright over Phoenix and Orlando. Even with the losing record, the Pacers are only -0.9 ppg in scoring margin at home while the Lakers, who are three games over .500 are only +1.0 in road scoring margin. Los Angeles is 10-4 as a road favorite but it has covered only six of those 14 games showing it is overvalued which comes as no surprise. We are also seeing some reverse line movement taking place as close to 80 percent of the action is on the Lakers yet the line has dropped from 6.5 to -5.5 as of last Wednesday morning. Indiana falls into a great situation as well. Play against .750 or better favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are playing their 3rd road game in five days and playing a team with a winning percentage between .250 and .400. This situation is 28-8 ATS (77.8 percent) since 1996. 9* Indiana Pacers
|
|||||||
01-26-10 | Minnesota Timberwolves v. New York Knicks -5.5 | Top | 105-132 | Win | 100 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
It is pretty safe to say that this is a big game for the Knicks. They are coming off a humiliating defeat on Sunday at home against Dallas by 50 points. Scoring margins that big are rare and even for the Knicks as that was the worst ever loss at MSG and second-worse loss in the history of the 46-year old franchise. They were down by 53 points at one stage in the fourth quarter and that is the largest deficit (or lead) of any kind in the NBA this season. Asked if the effort was there, head coach Mike D
|
|||||||
01-25-10 | Orlando Magic v. Memphis Grizzlies +1.5 | Top | 94-99 | Win | 100 | 7 h 31 m | Show |
I last used Memphis Friday and it won by a bucket over Oklahoma City but failed to cover by a point and a half. It has been an outstanding turnaround season for the Grizzlies but it could be even better if not for a number of heartbreaking losses, including their last two setbacks that came by a bucket apiece. The good news is that they are on their home court as part of a very favorable scheduling spot. After playing four straight home games, and winning all four, Memphis went on the road for just one game before returning home to play two more. The Grizzlies are 16-5 on their home floor and this after a 1-2 start and they have won 10 straight games at FedEx Forum as this place is becoming a tough venue for the opposition. While they are four games over .500 overall, they are still on the outside looking in on the playoff picture in the perennially tough Western Conference. The Grizzlies are 8-4 ATS against the Eastern Conference and they have won 12 of 14 games this season when playing as a home favorite. Orlando was lucky to come away with a victory on Saturday after it blew a big lead in the second half. The Magic were taken to overtime and they were fortunate to jump out to an 11-0 lead in the extra session to make it into an easy win. It was definitely a much needed victory as Orlando needs to string something together after a very poor run, going 2-7 in its previous nine games prior to this current 3-0 run. Two of those wins were at home against lowly Sacramento and Indiana and considering those two teams are a combined 8-37 on the road, the recent run id definitely skewed. Orlando is just 13-11 on the road and after losing only 14 road games all of last season, it has definitely been a struggle. It is only 3-6 ATS on the road against winning teams and 1-6-1 ATS in its last eight road games against teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. Memphis is 13-2 ATS coming off a home win this season and a perfect 5-0 ATS against teams with a winning percentage greater than .600. 8* Memphis Grizzlies
|
|||||||
01-23-10 | Orlando Magic v. Charlotte Bobcats +2 | Top | 106-95 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 6 m | Show |
We cashed a ticket last night with Atlanta over Charlotte as the Bobcats continue to struggle on the road. However, they do not struggle at home where they are 18-4 this season and tonight they catch an overconfident Orlando team that has won two straight games against inferior competition. The loss to the Hawks last night snapped a six-game winning streak for Charlotte with all of those wins coming at home. The schedule is an odd setup with those six straight home games followed by one road game and another home game before a west coast roadtrip of six games. Taking care of business has been a priority and the Bobcats will be out for some payback tonight as one of those four home losses this season came against Orlando by 12 points back in November. This is actually a double-revenge spot as Orlando followed that up with a home win a week later. Orlando has not won three straight games since before Christmas and even then is it debatable how good it was since its last three-game winning streak included all three games being played at home. The Magic do have a winning record on the road at 12-11 but they are 2-9 in their last 11 games away from home so that 10-2 start on the road is rather insignificant now. Orlando is just 2-6 ATS this season on the road against teams with a winning record and this price range has treated the Bobcats great as they are 9-3 ATS as a favorite of fewer than six points this season and they are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 home games as a favorite of three points or less. Also, Charlotte is 8-2 ATS this season when playing with no rest. As mentioned, Orlando won the first two meetings this year but those were back in November and it has dominated this series but the teams are much different now and Charlotte gets that revenge tonight. 10* Charlotte Bobcats
|
|||||||
01-22-10 | Los Angeles Lakers v. New York Knicks +5 | Top | 115-105 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 12 m | Show |
No matter what the Lakers do on Thursday night against Cleveland, win or lose, this is a definite letdown spot for them. Playing the Cavaliers meant two things for Los Angeles and that was playing the best team in the Eastern Conference with the best player in the conference and playing with revenge. The Lakers were after revenge following the home loss against the Cavaliers on Christmas and even though I thought it mattered little, it did matter to the players and that is big thing in this league of egos. There is no chance the Lakers will be as energetic or focused on Friday following that game. I have played against the Lakers on 11 different occasions this season prior to Thursday night and had gone 8-1-1 ATS and this is no accident as I have been able to find those go-against spots. Actually the one loss should have been a win but the Lakers outscored the Kings 18-9 in overtime to secure a cover. A lot of the thinking for Thursday was that Los Angeles was overpriced and I actually think it is not overpriced in this game as this line is right where the number should be. This will get a ton of Lakers action and of course I believe that is the wrong side. As for the Knicks, they have hit a bit of a rough stretch after a great run but having four days off prior to this game could not have come at a better time. They had gone on a run of 11-5 prior to their recent 2-4 skid but to their credit four of those games came on the road. At home the Knicks are 10-11 and that record is nothing special but they are 9-3 over their last 12 games at MSG and that is big especially when getting points. The Lakers are only 5-10 ATS on the road and despite being 12-1 against the Eastern Conference, they are just 6-6 against the number and as a favorite of fewer than six points they are 0-6 ATS. New York will be the more inspired team on the floor on Friday. 9* New York Knicks
|
|||||||
01-22-10 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Memphis Grizzlies -3 | Top | 84-86 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
Memphis suffered another road loss on Wednesday, this time in a close defeat at New Orleans, and that has been the story this season. It has been an outstanding turnaround season for the Grizzlies but it could be even better if not for a number of heartbreaking losses, including their last two that have come by a bucket apiece. The good news is that they are on their home court once again as part of a very favorable scheduling spot. After playing four straight home games, and winning all four, Memphis went on the road for just one game before returning home to play two more. That is excellent news as the Grizzlies are 15-5 on their home floor and this after a 1-2 start. They have won nine straight games at FedEx Forum, and while feared may not be the right word, this place is becoming a tough venue for the opposition. While they are three games over .5000 overall, they are still on the outside looking in on the playoff picture in the perennially tough Western Conference. One of those early season home losses came against Oklahoma City so it is revenge time. The Thunder are also having an incredible turnaround season and they are actually in the seventh spot in the Western Conference. They are six games over .500 after going 8-34 through 42 games a season ago which is an incredible 16-game turnaround. They are the talk of the league but let
|
|||||||
01-22-10 | Charlotte Bobcats v. Atlanta Hawks -6 | Top | 89-103 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
This is not an easy spot for the Bobcats. Charlotte is part of the grouping of one of the teams that is having a great turnaround season (Memphis and Oklahoma City being the other) but until it learns how to win on the road, the Bobcats will not be going very far. They are 18-4 at home which is the best home record and the most wins in the Eastern Conference however they are 3-15 on the road which is one of the worst road records in the league. This is a typical home/road dichotomy in the NBA but this one is more extreme than others as the home team is an amazing 33-7 in Charlotte
|
|||||||
01-21-10 | Los Angeles Lakers v. Cleveland Cavaliers -3.5 | Top | 87-93 | Win | 100 | 24 h 35 m | Show |
I was able to cash a ticket with the Cavaliers on Christmas Day as they went to Los Angeles and won rather easily from start to finish in what was a pretty solid revenge situation from the prior season when the Lakers swept Cleveland in the season series by 17 and 10 points. That sets up a revenge spot for the Lakers now but I do not like that at all. Playing with road revenge is bad enough but when a team is not very good on the road and playing one of the best home teams in the NBA, it makes it even worse. I have played against the Lakers on 10 different occasions this season and have gone 8-1-1 ATS and this is no accident as I have been able to find those go-against spots. Actually the one loss should have been a win but the Lakers outscored the Kings 18-9 in overtime to secure a cover. I said from day one this season that Los Angeles will be an overpriced team and that has been proven with its 18-22-1 ATS record. And it is overpriced again here. Yes, the Lakers are underdogs for just the fifth time this season but it is not enough. They have gone 0-3 ATS as an underdog of fewer than six points and the results show three outright losses by a total of 52 points. This is just the 16th road game of the season which is still the fewest in the NBA and thus, Los Angeles has played the easiest schedule in the league. Los Angeles is 1-7 ATS this season on the road when playing a team with a winning record. Cleveland is 15-3 at home which is the best home record in the Eastern Conference and while a 6-12 ATS mark in those games may not look good, the majority have been big spreads where the Cavaliers are not blowing out the teams they should be. They are 6-12 ATS against losing teams but 13-6 ATS against winning teams. The best proof shows the Cavaliers going a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last seven games as a home favorite of fewer than five points. While this may be revenge for the Lakers, Cleveland does not want to give that Christmas win back as it wants to prove that it is just as good, if not better than the defending World Champions. They prove it Thursday night. 10* Cleveland Cavaliers
|
|||||||
01-20-10 | Chicago Bulls v. Los Angeles Clippers -3 | Top | 97-104 | Win | 100 | 13 h 7 m | Show |
The Bulls recent turnaround has been sudden but surprising as there was talk about head coach Vinny Del Negro not sticking around for too much longer. However a home win over New Orleans sparked an 8-3 run and put the Bulls right back in the Eastern Conference playoff picture as they currently hold the eighth position in the standings. They are coming off a loss in their last game, the first of a seven-game Western Conference roadtrip where they have not fared well. Chicago is 5-9 this season against the Western Conference including a 1-5 record on the road where it is 4-14 on the season overall. Two of those road wins include victories over conference rivals Boston and Cleveland and take those away and the Bulls are 1-13 in their other 14 games when getting points away from home. The Clippers have hung tough this season despite another setback before the year even got started with the loss of Blake Griffin. Los Angeles is four games under .500 on the season and that is not going to do much in the Western Conference standings but it is taking care of business when it is supposed to. The Clippers are 7-1 in their last eight home games, going 7-0-1 ATS in those contests and on the season, they are 9-1 as a home favorite and while that is the straight up record, laying a short number is definitely beneficial. Chicago has won the last two meetings in Los Angeles by 20 and 19 points and those blowout losses certainly have the attention of the Clippers. Chicago is just 3-11-1 ATS in its last 15 games after allowing 100 or more points while the Clippers have covered six straight against the Eastern Conference. 8* Los Angeles Clippers
|
|||||||
01-20-10 | Denver Nuggets v. Golden State Warriors +6 | Top | 123-118 | Win | 100 | 13 h 5 m | Show |
This is the sixth consecutive home game for Golden St. whose first five games of this homestand have been up and down as two wins have been sandwiched around three losses. The last game against Chicago resulted in a win to move the Warriors to 8-10 at home which is certainly nothing special but that record is a half-game better than what the road record is for Denver yet the Warriors are getting a very generous number here. Golden St. has been decimated with injuries this season but it has remained very competitive as even though it is 12-27 overall, it is 21-17-1 against the number including an 11-7 ATS mark at home. This includes a 7-2 ATS record as a home underdog as four of those nine games have been won outright and two others resulting in losses by three points or fewer (Rockets and Cavaliers). The Nuggets are on a three-game winning streak but all three have come at home and as already said, the road has not been great as they are 8-11 on the season. Of those 19 games, Denver has been favored 14 times and has gone a very disappointing 4-10 ATS in those games. This is a quick turnaround for the Nuggets who return home tomorrow night against the Clippers as part of three more home games in a row. This is the first meeting in Golden St. since last November as the last two meetings last season and the first two meetings this season have all taken place in Denver. Going back further, the Warriors are 22-8 ATS in their last 30 games as a home underdog. 9* Golden St. Warriors
|
|||||||
01-20-10 | Memphis Grizzlies v. New Orleans Hornets -3.5 | Top | 111-113 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
New Orleans lost its last home game against San Antonio and this one has turned into a rather big game. The Hornets have a four-game roadtrip on deck following this home game against Memphis so it will want to go into that coming off a win to provide some sort of momentum in what has been a difficult season playing on the road. Playing at home has been a different story as New Orleans, after a 2-2 start at home, is 13-2 in its last 15 games at New Orleans Arena. The hornets have faced nine teams at home that have winning records and have gone 7-2 ATS in those games with the losses coming against the Blazers and Spurs as mentioned already. New Orleans had won seven straight in this series before the Grizzlies won at home last season but the Hornets came back to win the series season finale at home where they have won 12 of the past 14 meetings. Like New Orleans, Memphis is a much better team on its home floor where it is 15-5 on the season but just 7-13 on the road. The Grizzlies have won four straight games but all of those were at home and they get two more at home following this one. They have definitely been playing better on the road after a rough start to the year but they have played only once on the road since January 7th and that will be an issue here. The Hornets are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games overall against teams with a winning record. 8* New Orleans Hornets
|
|||||||
01-19-10 | Toronto Raptors v. Cleveland Cavaliers -9.5 | Top | 100-108 | Loss | -107 | 21 h 7 m | Show |
Cleveland has not been nearly as good this season when laying points as it was last season but I like this spot for the Cavaliers to be able to get it done. Cleveland is coming off an average roadtrip where it went 3-2 with those two losses coming by just three points combined while two of the wins coming by a combined four points so it was involved in some close contests. The Cavaliers have a game against the Lakers up next but it is not until Thursday so there will not be a lookahead and that game should actually help them focus more in this one as wining big win here increases confidence and provides momentum against what will be a very hungry Lakers team. Because of Cleveland
|
|||||||
01-18-10 | Orlando Magic +6.5 v. Los Angeles Lakers | Top | 92-98 | Win | 100 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
What is wrong with Orlando? After starting the season a pretty average 6-3, the Magic went on an 18-5 run and resembled the team that represented the Eastern Conference in the NBA Finals last season. However, they have fallen back as they have gone just 2-6 over their last eight games including two straight blowout losses on this roadtrip. They now have their first shot at the Lakers following their 4-1 series loss last season in the Finals and while many will argue that this is the worst time to face the Lakers, I think the spot is great. In the last game at Portland, Orlando was favored by 5.5 points and now the number has completely reversed itself which is no doubt justified based on the recent play by the Magic. However, we are still grabbing the right side and a lot of that is based on the movement of this line. This line opened at 6.5 in a lot places and even though close to three-quarters of the betting action is on the Lakers as of Monday afternoon, this number has come down. Los Angeles possesses the best record in the NBA and that is the way it should be as the Lakers have played the easiest schedule in the league thus far. 25 of their 40 games have been played at home which is easily the biggest home/road ratio in the league and even though they are 22-3 in those 25 home games, they have covered just 13 of those. Los Angeles is only 18-22 ATS on the season which is horrible considering it owns the best record in basketball but that is due to being a publicly overpriced team. In this price range, things have been even worse as the Lakers are 3-6 ATS as favorites of fewer than seven points. There is definitely a bulls-eye on the Lakers back and for Orlando, this would be the best way to break out of its funk. Orlando falls into a solid contrarian situation. Play against teams after a win by 15 points or more going up against an opponent after two straight losses by 15 points or more. This situation is 33-13 ATS (71.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 9* Orlando Magic
|
|||||||
01-18-10 | Philadelphia 76ers v. Minnesota Timberwolves +2 | Top | 103-108 | Win | 100 | 4 h 13 m | Show |
The Sixers hit the road where they have been playing very well as they are 4-1 over their last five road games. They are also 6-4 over their last 10 games overall but I don
|
|||||||
01-16-10 | Sacramento Kings +1.5 v. Washington Wizards | Top | 86-96 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 32 m | Show |
Last night was a devastating loss for the Wizards. I won with Washington as it was able to cover pretty much wire-to-wire in what was a close game throughout. However, losing in double-overtime is a tough loss to begin with and now trying to recover with a game the next night is a tough proposition. The Wizards are 2-8 ATS this season when playing with no rest and one of those wins was a game against New Jersey which is saying very little. That loss made it four straight defeats for Washington and sitting at 12-26 on the season, it is clearly one of the biggest disappointments this year after it was picked as a sleeper in the Southeast Division. This starts a stretch of six straight home games and that is arguably more on the minds of the players than this actual game. The Kings are struggling as well as they have lost seven of their last eight games including three straight on the road. Overall, Sacramento is just 3-14 away from home so asking for a win here may seem like too much to ask for but the spot is simply too good and the Kings have fared well against the number as they are 9-6-2 ATS. Overall the Kings are 8-4 straight up against teams in the bottom half of the league. They lost last night in Philadelphia so the travel is not a big factor here and they are 2-1-1 ATS in the second ob back-to-back road games when playing with no rest. The loss last night saw the return of shooting guard Kevin Martin who scored 19 points in just under 34 minutes as the rust of missing 32 games was apparent. The one game played however will provide the opportunity for a better game tonight and Sacramento should be able to get the offense back in gear as the 86 points scored was a season low. The Kings are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a double-digit loss while Washington is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 games as a home favorite of three points or less and it is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 home games against a team with a losing road record. Additionally, the Wizards are 2-11 ATS this season following a cover. 9* Sacramento Kings
|
|||||||
01-15-10 | Milwaukee Bucks +4.5 v. Golden State Warriors | Top | 113-104 | Win | 100 | 15 h 38 m | Show |
Milwaukee has had its road struggles this season as it is 4-14 away from home but to its credit the schedule has been extremely tough. Seven of those games have come against teams ranked in the top 10 as well as four others between 11th and 16th. The Bucks are 3-4 in the teams ranked below the top 16 and that is where tonight
|
|||||||
01-15-10 | Washington Wizards +6 v. Chicago Bulls | Top | 119-121 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
This is a very tough sandwich game for the Bulls. I had Chicago on Thursday against Boston in a big contrarian situation but now we will switch to the other side so a few scheduling reasons. Chicago was no doubt amped up for that game against Boston on national television so coming back and playing Washington is far from a game that it will put forth the same energy. Add to that, the Bulls embark on a west coast roadtrip after this game where they will play seven games in 12 days. Chicago is definitely playing a lot better of late and that was part of the Thursday play but this is about spots and this is one spot the favorite needs to be avoided. The Bulls have not been very consistent this season when laying points as they have won 11 of the 15 games when being favored but they have covered only six of those games. Taking Washington may not seem like a good investment but now that the Wizards have had a few games since the whole Gilbert Arenas situation went down, they can get back to playing their average basketball. Average is not necessarily a bad thing here as Washington is 1-5 ATS on the road against teams with a winning record but a much better 5-4 ATS on the road against losing teams. An even better look at it shows that in all games this season when it is a small underdog of less than three points, Washington is 0-4 ATS and when getting close to double-digits or more, it is 0-5 ATS. The Wizards are 10-4 ATS as underdogs between 3.0 and 8.5 points and those are against the team it can compete with. They are 8-10 straight up against teams ranked outside the top 16 in the league. Coming off a loss has better suited the Wizards all season as they have covered only two of 12 games this season following a win. Chicago has struggled this season when playing with no rest as it is 2-6 ATS and only 1-7 straight up. Another outright loss would be far from surprising if it happened here but we will take the generous points anyway as Washington looks to extend its current 5-1 ATS run in this series. 7* Washington Wizards
|
|||||||
01-15-10 | San Antonio Spurs v. Charlotte Bobcats +2 | Top | 76-92 | Win | 100 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
San Antonio won at Oklahoma City in overtime on Wednesday which forced us to rip up a ticket but I will be going against the Spurs again on the road here. Let
|
|||||||
01-14-10 | Chicago Bulls +7 v. Boston Celtics | Top | 96-83 | Win | 100 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
**9** NBA DARK HORSE DANDY *24-8 DHD RUN* After last year
|
|||||||
01-13-10 | San Antonio Spurs v. Oklahoma City Thunder -1.5 | Top | 109-108 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
**10** NBA
|
|||||||
01-12-10 | Houston Rockets v. Charlotte Bobcats -3 | Top | 94-102 | Win | 100 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
**9** NBA SUPREME ANNIHILATOR **65% RUN** There will be a lot of action on Houston here based on the fact it is getting points and has the better record and of course, is the more popular team. The Rockets are hitting the road for just one game before going back home to play three straight and eight of its next nine games. Getting up for Charlotte is certainly not a priority here especially with the fact that the Rockets have swept the season series each of the last three years and have won seven straight meetings overall. Houston is 10-12 on the road including losses in four straight and while the road schedule has been rough, this one is ranked up there as well. The wins in the last seven games against the Bobcats have come against teams not even close to the same team as they have this season. Charlotte is the epitome of an NBA team that has success at home but struggles on the road. In the Bobcats 35 games this season, the home team is 28-7 and that includes a 13-4 record at home. They have won four straight games and the four losses this season have come against Orlando and Boston from the Eastern conference and Portland and Utah from the Western Conference. Those are four tough teams no doubt and while Houston can be lumped up there with them, I do not like this spot for the Rockets at all. Charlotte is a very respectable 4-7 against teams ranked within the top ten and I consider that outstanding as it went 5-19 against top ten teams last season and 4-21 against top ten teams in 2007-08. This is dramatically improved team. Charlotte is 22-9 ATS in its last 31 games following a game where both teams scored fewer than 90 points and it is 25-10 ATS in its last 35 games coming off a home win. Houston meanwhile is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games and those road woes continue Tuesday. 9* Charlotte Bobcats
|
|||||||
01-11-10 | Atlanta Hawks +4 v. Boston Celtics | Top | 102-96 | Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
**9** NBA DARK HORSE DANDY *23-8 DHD RUN* After Boston swept the season series against Atlanta last season, the Hawks are trying to return the favor. They have won both matchups this season and go for the third straight tonight in Boston. Atlanta defeated the Celtics in the most recent meeting just this past Friday at home but it is coming off a dud on Saturday as the Hawks went to Orlando and were blasted by 32 points. That dropped the Hawks to 9-9 on the road which is still very respectable as they are one of only nine teams in the entire NBA that has a .500 or better record on the road. Boston rebounded from that loss in Atlanta by defeating the Raptors in Toronto yesterday and it was yet another win against an average team. The Celtics have played a pretty light schedule this season and they have won the games they are supposed to as they are 23-4 against teams ranked outside the top ten. They are just 3-5 against the top ten and as mentioned, that includes a 0-2 record against the Hawks. Boston is only 1-3 ATS at home against teams with a winning record and with only four games coming against good teams, the 11-4 record at home makes more sense. The Hawks meanwhile are 8-2 ATS this season against teams with a winning percentage of .700 or better. Atlanta falls into a solid situation based on its most recent performance. Play on road teams that are averaging 103 or more ppg on the season, after trailing in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half. This situation is 24-3 ATS (88.9 percent) over the last five seasons. It basically states that good teams are able to rebound off a poor performance and we will see it again here. 9* Atlanta Hawks
|
|||||||
01-10-10 | Cleveland Cavaliers v. Portland Trail Blazers +6 | Top | 106-94 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
**9** NBA DARK HORSE DANDY *23-7 DHD RUN* Portland has had its up and downs this season but it is coming off a big home win against the Lakers Friday and now welcome another elite opponent. Prior to that last victory the Blazers were coming off two losses it never should have lost as it went down against the Clippers in Los Angeles and at home against Memphis. Prior to that they had gone 8-2 in their previous 10 games and they bring in a solid 14-6 home record into this one. They have been annihilated with injuries this season and are still on the mend but at least the core players are back, with the exception of Greg Oden. That home record is a half-game better than what the Cavaliers have on the road making this line out of whack similar to that Lakers game. Cleveland is laying points simply because it has to but the linesmakers are saying that Cleveland is a point and a half better than the Lakers, who were laying just four points Friday. Less than a month ago, Cleveland was favored by 10 points over Portland at home and the line shift to this game in Portland does not fit as based on a four-point edge for home court, the Cavaliers should be just a two-point chalk here. The Cavaliers are 5-0 ATS this season as road underdogs but just 8-8 ATS as road favorites and they are 4-7 ATS as favorites of fewer than six points. The Blazers are 18-6 ATS in their last 24 games as a home underdog and they are also 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games after scoring 105 or more points in their previous game. Cleveland has struggled against good rebounding teams this season, going 0-6 ATS against teams outboarding opponents by three or more per game. 9* Portland Trailblazers
|
|||||||
01-09-10 | Denver Nuggets v. Sacramento Kings +1 | Top | 100-102 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
**9** NBA DARK HORSE DANDY *22-7 DHD RUN* Denver is coming off a huge win last night sat home against Cleveland and that was without Carmelo Anthony in the lineup. The Nuggets will likely be without Anthony against tonight and this is a game they could definitely use him as this is a massive letdown spot. Overall, Denver is not playing good basketball right now as it is 4-6 in its last 10 games and its lead in the Northwest Division is down to just one game over Portland. Denver is 15-3 at home after last night
|
|||||||
01-08-10 | Los Angeles Lakers v. Portland Trail Blazers +4 | Top | 98-107 | Win | 100 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
**9** NBA DARK HORSE DANDY *21-7 DHD RUN* It has been eight years since the Lakers have won in Portland and there is no reason to think that streak is broken tonight. Los Angeles has had the best schedule to date in the NBA as it has played 23 home games and only 12 road games and one of those road games was against the Clippers last time out which is not even considered a road game in my opinion. The Lakers are only 8-4 in those road games including losses in two straight. Of those eight wins, four came in overtime while the other four came against Golden St., Chicago, New Jersey and Detroit, all of which have losing records on the season and are a combined 38-98. The best record in the NBA has been aided by the easiest schedule in the league. Portland has had its up and downs this season and it is coming off two losses it never should have lost as it went down against the Clippers in Los Angeles and at home against Memphis. Prior to that the Blazers had gone 8-2 in their previous 10 games and they bring in a solid 13-6 home record into this one. They have been annihilated with injuries this season and are still on the mend but at least the core players are back, with the exception of Greg Oden, and this will definitely be a team looking to bounce back following two poor losses. On the other side, all indications are that Pau Gasol will not play tonight and is targeting a comeback at home on Sunday. The Lakers are just 5-8 ATS in the 13 games he has missed including a 0-4 ATS record on the road. They are also 0-5 ATS this season in their five games on the road against teams with a winning record which makes their 0-4 ATS mark as favorites of fewer than six points more plausible. Play on home underdogs after two or more consecutive overs and are outscoring their opponents by three or more ppg. This situation is 46-19 ATS (70.8 percent) since 1996. The streak continues tonight. 9* Portland Trailblazers
|
|||||||
01-08-10 | Orlando Magic -7.5 v. Washington Wizards | Top | 97-104 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 1 m | Show |
**10** NBA
|
|||||||
01-06-10 | Golden State Warriors v. Minnesota Timberwolves -3 | Top | 107-101 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
**10** NBA #1 JANUARY REVENGE GAME *HUGE* It is safe to say Minnesota has had this game circled for quite some time. The Timberwolves and Warriors met earlier this season in Golden St. and the Warriors prevailed by 41 points. Minnesota has had some bad losses this season but that was by far the worst and it will be out for some payback tonight. The Timberwolves have dropped four straight games including two on the road and two at home. Those two home losses came against Orlando and Utah, two top teams in the league so it is a big step down tonight. The Timberwolves have struggled against those better teams going 3-7 ATS at home against teams with a winning record while going a much more respectable 4-3 ATS at home against teams with a losing record. Golden St. is coming off a horrific loss last night in Denver as it hung tight with the Nuggets but lost in the last second because of a phantom foul. Denver hit two free throws with 0.4 seconds left and pulled off the improbable win and that loss for the Warriors will be tough to overcome. That was the eighth straight road loss for Golden St. who fell to 3-17 on the road and 9-24 overall. Golden St, is getting outscored on the road by 8.2 ppg and with this being the final game of a four-game trip, I don
|
|||||||
01-05-10 | Phoenix Suns v. Sacramento Kings +2.5 | Top | 113-109 | Loss | -108 | 14 h 43 m | Show |
**9** NBA DARK HORSE DANDY *21-6 DHD RUN* The Kings are in a little bit of a slump as they have lost three straight and five of their last six games but this is a good spot for a rebound. Two of those losses came in overtime against the Cavaliers and Lakers in consecutive games and unfortunately I happened to be backing the Kings in those games as they were outscored 31-9 in the overtime sessions of those games so that was simply bad luck. Another loss came at the Lakers by a point as Kobe Bryant hit a shot at the buzzer to win it. A couple breaks and Sacramento could be on a much better run it is what it is and it welcomes yet another strong opponent to Arco Arena. The Suns are coming off a home loss against Memphis on Saturday and it wasn
|
|||||||
01-04-10 | Atlanta Hawks v. Miami Heat +1.5 | Top | 75-92 | Win | 100 | 8 h 43 m | Show |
**9** NBA DARK HORSE DANDY *20-6 DHD RUN* Neither Atlanta nor Miami is playing very good basketball right now as both are mired in three-game losing skids. The Hawks lost both game in a home-and-home against the Cavaliers before losing its third straight in overtime against the Knicks last time out. That home loss to the Knick was surprising as it was the second home loss against New York this season so that revenge game did not work out. The Hawks are now involved in another revenge game but the roles are switched this time. Miami has had a couple days to stew over its last loss against Charlotte at home on Saturday which happened to be just the third road win of the season for the Bobcats. Now the Heat look to get back into the win column against one of the bet teams in the Eastern Conference and motivation should be no issue. After losing the Conference Quarterfinals last season to the Hawks, Miami lost the first rematch game this season by 15 points in Atlanta. Now, it gets a chance to extract some revenge in the first game at home since then. Miami is 4-1 ATS this season as an underdog of fewer than three points while Atlanta is 0-2 ATS as a favorite of fewer than three points so this number is right in our parameters. The Heat also fall into a great situation based on that revenge. Play on teams that are revenging a road loss against opponent of 10 points or more and coming off a loss by 10 points or more as a favorite. This situation is 71-35 ATS (67 percent) over the last five seasons. 9* Miami Heat
|
|||||||
01-03-10 | Dallas Mavericks v. Los Angeles Lakers -6 | Top | 96-131 | Win | 100 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
**9** NBA SUPREME ANNIHILATOR *100% ANGLE* This number is a lot smaller than I expected. The Lakers won all three meetings in this series last season by more points than they are putting down on Sunday but it is the first meeting that took place this season that makes this a big play. The Mavericks came into Los Angeles and defeated the Lakers in the second game of the season and it wasn
|
|||||||
01-02-10 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Milwaukee Bucks +0.5 | Top | 97-103 | Win | 100 | 14 h 42 m | Show |
**9** NBA DARK HORSE DANDY *19-6 DHD RUN* Milwaukee is not the underdog in this game, yet, but it still classifies as a dark horse team based on recent results. Oklahoma City has been a very hot team with wins in five straight games and that makes this the right time to back off and look in the other direction. Buy low and sell high is what we are looking for in this league and this is the perfect opportunity to take advantage of a very soft line. The Thunder are 9-7 on the road this season and those nine wins are already more than all of last season when they went 8-33 away from home so to say this team has shown improvement is an understatement. Still, the situation calls for going the other way. While Oklahoma City is winning, Milwaukee is losing. The Bucks have dropped four straight and seven of their last eight games and this is the other half of the buy low and sell high spot. Losing is never a good thing but to their credit four of those recent losses have come against the Lakers, Cavaliers, Spurs and Magic and while the Thunder have improved, they cannot be put into that grouping. Milwaukee has lost four straight games at home and coming off a two-game road swing, this is a great opportunity to snap that skid after starting the season 9-3 at home. The Bucks also fall into a great situation. Play against road teams that are averaging between 98 and 102 ppg going up against teams that are allowing between 98 and 102 ppg, after a win by three points or less. This situation is 41-16 ATS (71.9 percent) over the last five seasons. The home team is 10-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings and Milwaukee is out to avenge an 18-point setback in Oklahoma City back in November as well. 9* Milwaukee Bucks
|
|||||||
12-31-09 | Utah Jazz v. Oklahoma City Thunder -3 | Top | 86-87 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
**9** NBA SUPREME ANNIHILATOR **18-9 RUN** It is revenge time for Utah but that is meaningless here as road revenge is tough in the NBA especially when a team cannot win on the road. The Jazz are 6-9 on the road this season which is not horrible but five of those victories have come against Minnesota, Charlotte, New Jersey, Philadelphia and New York. The common trait for all of those teams is that they all have losing records and not even good ones as all are at least six games under .500. The lone road win that was quality came at San Antonio which played without Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili so it is safe to say that the Jazz possess no good road wins this season. Oklahoma City has quietly won four straight games with three of those coming on the road and this run put an end to a recent 1-5 stretch that came against elite competition including the Lakers, Mavericks, Nuggets and Cavaliers. I do not put Utah in that category anymore as it was there at one point but it is on a downward trend while the Thunder are moving in the other direction. Utah had won seven of the eight meetings in this series the previous two years but Oklahoma City won the first meeting in Utah this year as it took advantage of 24 turnovers from the Jazz. As mentioned, the road revenge factor comes into play and Utah is not a team that has had success in it. The Jazz are 5-17 ATS in their last 22 road games revenging a loss against an opponent. Oklahoma City has been solid this season against good offenses as it is 10-3 ATS in the 13 games against teams that are shooting 46 percent from the floor or better. It is also 6-0 ATS in its last six home games against a team with a losing road record while the Jazz are 8-18 ATS in their last 26 road games against a team with a winning home record. 9* Oklahoma City Thunder
|
|||||||
12-30-09 | Boston Celtics +2 v. Phoenix Suns | Top | 98-116 | Loss | -102 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
**9** NBA DARK HORSE DANDY *19-5 DHD RUN* The safe play here is on the home team as Phoenix as coming off a big win against the Lakers while the Celtics are reeling with two straight bad losses against the lower class of the Western Conference. I am going opposite thinking here however as I expect a big Boston bounce back and even though this is a team that the Suns should be up for, I still see a letdown. The win over Los Angeles was a big revenge game for Phoenix as it overcame two huge defeats earlier in the season and now the roles are reversed. Boston comes into this game with its own revenge in mind following a seven-point home loss to the Suns back on November 6th. That was the first loss of the season for the Celtics who started off 6-0 and put them into a mini-slump where they went on a 3-4 run. They won 11 straight and went 14-1 in the next 15 games before the two recent losses leading up to this game. Boston has played up and down to the competition on the road this season as it is 2-7 ATS against teams with a losing record and a perfect 5-0 ATS against teams with a winning record. This includes a 3-0 record as underdogs and those three games also resulted in outright wins over Cleveland, San Antonio and most recently Orlando on Christmas Day. After starting the season 14-3, the Suns are only 6-9 in their last 15 games and they have not won back-to-back games since November 29th. They are 0-6 in their last six games following a win while covering just one game when they were underdogs. The road team is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings in this series and that continues on Wednesday with an outright Boston victory. 9* Boston Celtics
|
|||||||
12-30-09 | Charlotte Bobcats v. Toronto Raptors -5 | Top | 103-107 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
**9** NBA SUPREME ANNIHILATOR *33-14 RUN* You won
|
|||||||
12-29-09 | Cleveland Cavaliers v. Atlanta Hawks -2 | Top | 95-84 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
**10**NBA TOP 2009 REVENGE PLAY *18-6 RUN* It is time for another big revenge spot and this time it is on the up and coming Hawks. Atlanta is back home following a 2-2 roadtrip that involved a lot of travel in the week it was on the road. The Hawks have had two full days off to get ready for this one and ready they will be. They have had this one circled since last May when they were swept in the Conference Semifinals by Cleveland and it wasn
|
|||||||
12-28-09 | Los Angeles Lakers v. Phoenix Suns +1 | Top | 103-118 | Win | 100 | 5 h 2 m | Show |
**9** NBA DARK HORSE DANDY *18-5 DHD RUN* This is a big game for Phoenix. The Suns are playing for some huge revenge as they lost the first two meetings this season, both in Los Angeles, by 19 and 20 points. They are coming off a road loss at Golden St. on Saturday which came right after easily defeating the Clippers at home on Christmas night. That was a big win as it stopped a two-game skid at home after winning the first nine to start the season. The Lakers are 8-2 on the road this season but I am still not impressed. I played against Los Angeles in its last road game against the Kings and that was a tough loss to swallow as the Lakers won it thanks to a big run in the second overtime. The eight road wins have come against some less than stellar competition as of those eight victories, only one has come against a Western Conference team that is currently sitting in a playoff spot and that was at Houston by a single point in overtime. The two other road games against Western Conference playoff teams resulted in losses at Utah and at Denver. Overall the Lakers have played the 29th ranked schedule in the NBA while the Suns have played the fourth toughest schedule in the league. The debacle against Golden St. puts Phoenix into an outstanding situation here. Play on teams that are shooting 48 percent or better on the season after a game where they allowed the opponent to shoot 55 percent or more from the floor. This situation is 28-7 ATS (80 percent) over the last five seasons with the average point differential being +6.2 ppg, The Suns get their revenge at home tonight. 9* Phoenix Suns
|
|||||||
12-27-09 | Dallas Mavericks +6.5 v. Denver Nuggets | Top | 104-96 | Win | 100 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
**9** NBA DARK HORSE DANDY *17-5 DHD RUN* This number is too big for two teams that are very evenly matched and are within just a game of each other with Dallas actually holding that one-game edge. Recent history is playing into this line and that is definitely helping our cause. The Mavericks have had this game circled since last May following a 4-1 playoff loss the Nuggets which added to a dreadful 8-1 season series loss. Of the eight Nuggets victories last season, four came by three points or fewer including the two games played in Denver during the regular season. This certainly explains the listless effort last night by Dallas in the five-point home win over Memphis. Denver is 13-1 at home which is the best home record in the NBA but the Mavericks are 10-4 which is the best road record in the Western Conference. Dallas won only 18 games on the road last season and it took the first 21 road games to reach 11 wins while a win here would make it only 15 this season showing a vast improvement. The Mavericks were beaten badly in the conference semifinals last season and they will be out for some revenge here. I do not look too much into road revenge, only under certain conditions, and this is definitely one of those. 9* Dallas Mavericks
|
|||||||
12-26-09 | Los Angeles Lakers v. Sacramento Kings +6 | Top | 112-103 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 3 m | Show |
The thinking here will be that the Lakers bounce back from that huge loss against Cleveland on Christmas day but I think it is just the opposite. Obviously the Lakers are a great team but that defeat can linger as they were humbled pretty good and if anything, this will be a big letdown the day after. Add to that, Los Angeles is at Phoenix in two days. I played the Kings in their last game and they covered for 48 minutes but the problem is that the game went to overtime which no underdog bettor ever wants to see and Sacramento was outscored 13-0 by the Cavaliers. That can leave a lingering sting but they have had time to get over it and with another marquee team in town, the Kings will be up once again. They are 10-4 at home and they have been solid in these spots, going a percent 9-0 ATS in their last nine games following a double-digit loss. The Lakers meanwhile are just 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a double-digit loss. Also, Sacramento is 10-3 ATS in its 13 games this season against teams averaging 99 or more ppg. 10* Sacramento Kings
|
|||||||
12-26-09 | San Antonio Spurs v. Milwaukee Bucks +3 | Top | 112-97 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
The wrong team is favored here or I should at least say that the Spurs should not be favored as this game should be in the pickem range. San Antonio was favored by eight points in the first meeting at home this season and the venue change should turn this one into a game right around even. Since that game, the Spurs have gone 9-5 while the Bucks have gone 4-11 so the teams have not been on equal ground but the schedule has had a lot to do with it. Also, Milwaukee has had some brutal losses as three of the last four defeats have come by three points or fewer including two one-point losses at home. You cannot ignore the fact that the Spurs are just 3-6 on the road which is a bad record and it also shows that only just over a third of the games have come away from home. The Spurs and the Lakers are the only two teams in the NBA to play fewer than 10 road games on the year. 8* Milwaukee Bucks
|
|||||||
12-26-09 | Houston Rockets v. New Jersey Nets +10.5 | Top | 98-93 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
This game reminds me a lot of the Golden St./New Orleans game on Wednesday. New Jersey is horrible and currently playing some bad basketball so this is a good time to back the Nets. Just like taking the Warriors then, we are buying low tonight as this line is severely inflated yet the public is riding it out. There are a lot of +10.5 lines out there and just a week ago, the Nets were +12.5 against the Lakers and there is no way the Rockets are only two points worse than the Lakers. Houston is in a horrendous spot here as it is coming off a game in Orlando on Wednesday and has a game at Cleveland tomorrow. Despite losing to the Magic, I do not see the Rockets getting up for this one especially with the Cavaliers on deck. There certainly is not much good to say about New Jersey but winning in the NBA is about winning ugly and it does not get uglier than this. 8* New Jersey Nets
|
|||||||
12-25-09 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Phoenix Suns -9.5 | Top | 93-124 | Win | 100 | 34 h 12 m | Show |
After starting the season 10-0 at home, the Suns have dropped two straight at US Airways Center. The Clippers coming to town is the perfect remedy. Phoenix is just 4-8 in its last 12 games but to its credit, it has played some major competition. Six of those losses have come against teams that will no doubt be in the playoffs come the end of the season as well as a loss against up and coming Oklahoma City last time out. The Clippers have been up and down this season and the road woes continue. They are 5-8 which isn
|
|||||||
12-25-09 | Cleveland Cavaliers +5 v. Los Angeles Lakers | Top | 102-87 | Win | 100 | 31 h 8 m | Show |
Catching Cleveland as an underdog is rare as it has gotten points only three times this season at Miami, at Orlando and at Phoenix and it won all three of those games outright. The loss on Sunday against Dallas snapped a five-game winning streak for the Cavaliers and it was a rare setback against a good team but it responded with that Phoenix win and then the overtime win in Sacramento. This season, the Cavaliers have been playing up and down to the competition as they are 5-8 ATS against teams with a losing record but 9-3 ATS against teams with a winning record. The Lakers are 16-2 at home which is solid they can be beat. They are 0-2 ATS this season as a favorite of five points or less and that definitely sets up well here. Cleveland was blasted in both meetings last season so you know it will be out for some major payback here. 8* Cleveland Cavaliers
|
|||||||
12-25-09 | Boston Celtics v. Orlando Magic -5 | Top | 86-77 | Loss | -101 | 29 h 42 m | Show |
Orlando is one of very few teams that give the Celtics trouble and it will get even worse here. This line may seem high based on two elite teams facing each other but the absence of Paul Pierce cannot be understated. His numbers are definitely down this season but with him out of the lineup it does give big matchup advantages to the Magic. Boston has lost only once on the road this season and it came against Indiana of all teams but besides beating Cleveland opening night, the Celtics have hardly been tested away from home. They defeated San Antonio but other than that, the next best team is Oklahoma City who is 2-12 against top ten teams. Boston is 1-3 against the top ten while Orlando is 5-2 and it comes as no surprise that the Celtics have played the easiest schedule in the NBA this year. Boston wants revenge but it won
|
|||||||
12-23-09 | Cleveland Cavaliers v. Sacramento Kings +6 | Top | 117-104 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 32 m | Show |
**8** NBA LATE NIGHT BAILOUT **12-2 RUN**I won with Cleveland on Monday against Phoenix as we saw a solid effort from the Cavaliers in that game. We are also going to see a solid effort from them on Christmas Day when they are playing the Lakers. That makes this game a tough letdown/lookahead spot for Cleveland but that isn
|
|||||||
12-23-09 | Golden State Warriors +9.5 v. New Orleans Hornets | Top | 102-108 | Win | 100 | 13 h 14 m | Show |
**9** NBA DARK HORSE DANDY *16-5 DHD RUN* Golden St. is playing horrible right now so why not play the Warriors? This is the perfect example of buying a team low and I don
|
|||||||
12-22-09 | Philadelphia 76ers v. Washington Wizards -2.5 | Top | 98-105 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
**10** NBA CONFERENCE *GAME OF THE MONTH* This is a game of two very disappointing teams as both Philadelphia and Washington were expected to make big strides. Instead both are well below .500 and they are ahead of only New Jersey in the Eastern Conference standings making this game not very appealing to most. However, appealing games do not win bets as it is more about situations and this one sets up great for Washington. The Wizards are home from a four-game west coast roadtrip where they went 1-3 to drop to 4-10 on the road for the season. They are just 4-7 at home which certainly is not much better but this home game is of more importance than most as Washington goes right back on the road after this one for a three game trek beginning tomorrow night. The schedule makers have done no favors for the Wizards in December to end the month but they did give us a big opportunity here. While the Wizards are struggling, the Sixers are struggling just as bad if not worse. After the loss at home to the Clippers in their last game, they are on a 2-14 run to fall 13 games below .500 on the year. The game before that resulted in a road win at Boston and that was definitely a head-scratcher and it was the first road victory over a team not named New York or New Jersey. Six of the last seven games have been at home for Philadelphia and this marks the first game of a six-game roadtrip through the holidays. The Sixers have been doing a good job covering on the road but those have been games where they have been getting a ton of points and that is far from the case here. Washington has not forgotten getting swept in the season series last year and it is 1-0 this year as it looks to return the favor. The past, present and future schedules are aligning correctly for us tonight and we take advantage with a big winner. 10* Washington Wizards
|
|||||||
12-21-09 | Cleveland Cavaliers +2.5 v. Phoenix Suns | Top | 109-91 | Win | 100 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
**9** NBA DARK HORSE DANDY *15-5 DHD RUN* Cleveland lost on Sunday against a short-handed Dallas team which certainly came as a surprise to many as the Mavericks were without Dirk Nowitzki. Now the Cavaliers must regroup and do it quickly against the Suns and I think they have no problem doing so. Catching Cleveland as an underdog is rare as it has gotten points only twice this season at Miami and at Orlando and it won both of those games outright. The loss on Sunday snapped a five-game winning streak for the Cavaliers and it was a rare setback against a good team. This season, the Cavaliers have been playing up and down to the competition as they are 4-8 ATS against teams with a losing record but 8-3 ATS against teams with a winning record. This includes a win against Phoenix in the first meeting this season which was the third straight in this series. The Suns are undefeated at home at 10-0 and bring in a 19-game home winning streak to the table but I am not overly impressed. They have defeated Orlando and San Antonio on their home floor but other than that, there have been no other quality wins. On the season, Phoenix has struggled against the top teams in the NBA as it is 15-2 against teams ranked outside the top ten but just 3-7 against teams ranked in the top ten. The Suns are 7-3 ATS at home but this includes a 5-0 ATS mark against teams with a losing record. Facing the solid Suns offense is not an issue for the Cavaliers as they held them to 40 percent shooting in the first meeting and they are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games against teams that are shooting 48 percent or better from the floor. Also, Cleveland is 24-8 ATS in its last 32 games following a loss and it will extend that tonight as it bounces back from Sunday
|
|||||||
12-20-09 | New Orleans Hornets v. Toronto Raptors -2 | Top | 92-98 | Win | 100 | 3 h 11 m | Show |
**9** NBA SUPREME ANNIHILATOR **24-9 RUN** I won with New Orleans on Friday which was a big revenge game for the Hornets as they took care of the Nuggets. They now hit the road where they are just 2-10 on the season with the two wins coming against the Timberwolves and Clippers. They have been playing much better of late after a slow start to the season but I still do not trust this team on the road especially with catching a very small number. Toronto is coming off a big win over the Nets on Friday and while beating New Jersey is no big deal, it snapped a two-game road skid and provided some momentum heading into this game. The Raptors are 8-5 at home but the schedule has not been easy with two losses against Orlando, a loss against Phoenix and a loss against the Hawks all of which are part of the elite class of the league right now. They have played the third toughest schedule in the NBA and are 2-11 against the top 10 in the league. Play on teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are averaging 102 or more ppg and coming off a win by 15 or more points going up against a team averaging between 98 and 102 ppg. This situation is 29-7 ATS (80.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 9* Toronto Raptors
|
|||||||
12-19-09 | Oklahoma City Thunder +4 v. Houston Rockets | Top | 90-95 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
**9** NBA DARK HORSE DANDY *15-4 DHD RUN* This one sets up very well for Oklahoma City. Both teams come in off Friday wins but it will be Houston that will be the less focused team tonight. The Rockets won in Dallas last night in overtime and that was a big game for them as they were in big-time revenge mode, trying to avenge a 31-point loss against the Mavericks earlier in the year at home. Mission accomplished. Even though they are heading home now, this is not the time to back this team. Houston is 6-4 at home which is certainly nothing special and it is the worst record of the current top eight teams in the Western Conference. The Rockets have already won both meetings this season against the Thunder and they have actually won 12 straight in this series so we know what that means. It is now revenge time for Oklahoma City which hasn
|
|||||||
12-18-09 | Denver Nuggets v. New Orleans Hornets | Top | 92-98 | Win | 100 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
**10** NBA #1 REVENGE REPORT **22-8 RUN** This is a huge game for New Orleans and everything falls into place for the Hornets on Friday. New Orleans is playing its first game against Denver this season and the last time it saw the Nuggets was in last year
|
|||||||
12-18-09 | Los Angeles Clippers v. New York Knicks -2 | Top | 91-95 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
**9** NBA ESPN STAR ATTRACTION **73% RUN** It may come as a surprise but this is the first game on ESPN tonight. While the matchup is far from glamorous, it does give us a big opportunity for a winner tonight. I played against the Knicks last night and they folded in the fourth quarter against the Bulls to cement their second straight loss. Both of those defeats came on the road and now New York is back at MSG and this is a big game for this team. The Knicks do have their own television network but playing on a national level does not come often and the home team steps it up in what is a solid revenge situation as well. The Clippers won both meetings last season but both of those games came in overtime and sometimes those are the worst losses, even worse than a big blowout. That makes it four straight losses for the Knicks in this series and quite honestly, losing four straight to the Clippers is something no team should be proud of. Los Angeles is in the early end of a six-game roadtrip and it started the trek with a blowout win at Minnesota on Wednesday night. That was the second straight road win for the Clippers but the first one was way back on November 27th as there was a block of six home games in the middle. This is just the third time all season that the Clippers have played two straight road games and only the second time they have done so following a win. The first time resulted in a loss at New Orleans and a similar result is likely here. On the season, Los Angeles is 4-5 on the road and just two games under .500 overall but it has played the easiest schedule in the NBA so being under the break-even point is not even close to impressive. The Knicks are a solid 10-5 ATS in their last 15 games despite the recent two setbacks and this includes a 4-1 ATS mark at home. This means that 10 of those 15 games have come on the road so the time at home has been minimal but includes wins over Phoenix and Portland which has upped the Knicks record to 7-2 ATS against the Western Conference. New York is 17-6 ATS in its last 23 games after playing two consecutive games as a road underdog while the Clippers are 8-24 ATS in their last 32 games coming off a win as an underdog. The Knick snap that skid against the Clippers tonight. 9* New York Knicks
|
|||||||
12-17-09 | Phoenix Suns v. Portland Trail Blazers -2 | Top | 102-105 | Win | 100 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
**8** NBA TNT STAR ATTRACTION **70% RUN** Phoenix is a perfect 9-0 at home this season but it is a different team on the road as is the case with most teams in the NBA. The Suns have been tested on the road this season but the problem is that they have only passed half of those tests. They are 8-8 on the road and this includes five straight losses away from home so the problem is even more troublesome. Looking at those road games, wins have come against the Clippers, Wizards, Sixers, Timberwolves and Raptors, which is far from a solid resume. Granted, Phoenix did defeat Boston but the majority of games against the top teams in the league have resulted in losses. These include the Magic, Lakers (twice), Cavaliers, Mavericks and Nuggets. While many will not classify Portland in this
|
|||||||
12-17-09 | New York Knicks v. Chicago Bulls -2 | Top | 89-98 | Win | 100 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
**9** NBA SUPREME ANNIHILATOR **19-8 RUN** We will go back to the Bulls tonight who brought a ticket home against the Lakers last time out although it was certainly not by a big margin. Chicago was in that game the entire time until the final quarter when the Lakers pulled away but now it takes a step down in competition. The Bulls have faced Boston and Los Angeles over the last two games and that will not result in a lot of success for many teams. Overall, the Bulls have played the toughest schedule in the NBA. 16 of their 23 games have come against teams ranked in the top half of the league where they have gone 4-12 meaning they are a more respectable 4-3 against teams outside the top 16. The Knicks definitely fit into that category. New York is 8-16 on the season including a 4-8 record on the road and it had a solid run going before its last game. The Knicks had won four straight games before a loss at Charlotte last time out and that is a problem as losses have come in bunches this season. The Knicks are 4-5 this season against the Western Conference which is a rather big surprise but it is just 4-11 against the Eastern Conference. Chicago has been a wallet burner for mot of this season compiling a 6-15-2 ATS mark on the year. You will see that the Bulls are 1-5 ATS in their six games as a favorite but all of those losses were as overprices favorites. They are 0-5 ATS as a favorite of fewer than six points and this small number actually fits into a lot of solid success and lack thereof on the other side. Chicago is 3-0 ATS this season when the line is between +3 and -3 while the Knicks are 5-9 ATS when the line is between +5 and -5. The problem this season for Chicago is the offense as it is shooting only 42.3 percent on the season which is second to worst in the NBA, ahead of only the Nets. The good news is there will not be much resistance tonight as the Knicks are allowing opponents to shoot 48.3 percent on the season which is third worst in the league so something will have to give and it looks like the Bulls get the edge there. Chicago bounces back at home and picks up the easy win. 9* Chicago Bulls
|
|||||||
12-17-09 | Orlando Magic v. Miami Heat UNDER 201 | Top | 86-104 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
**10** NBA #1 DECEMBER TOTAL **100% RUN** We are getting some excellent value on this number and for a variety of different reasons. First and foremost, we are going against history here as over the last two seasons, the
|
|||||||
12-16-09 | Los Angeles Lakers v. Milwaukee Bucks +6 | Top | 107-106 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
**8** NBA GAME OF THE WEEK **17-7 RUN** I will be fading the Lakers once again. They were fortunate to come away with a relatively easy win last night thanks to a big fourth quarter but they still failed to get the cover against the Bulls. This is a different team on the road and one that still have not seen the road much this season. The Lakers have the second best record in the NBA but their schedule has had a lot to do with that. They are the defending World Champions so we know how good they are but playing 29th ranked schedule in the league has certainly not hurt the cause. 17 of their first 21 games came at home which is insane and they have gotten a great early break by the NBA. The six road games have not been particularly good either as they are 4-2 with one win coming against Golden St. and two others coming in overtime at Oklahoma City and Houston. Los Angeles is just +2.0 ppg in its six road games. This is just the second time this season that the Lakers have had to play back-to-back games on the road. The first time resulted in an overtime win by just a point over Houston in that second game. Milwaukee has been a pleasant surprise this season. It has won two straight games after going through a 1-8 slump but that run included some tight losses as well as six of those eight losses coming on the road. The Bucks are 9-3 at home this season with the three losses coming against Cleveland, Orlando and Dallas and those latter two were both by just two points. They welcomed Michael Redd back last game and he definitely showed some rust but he will be much better tonight. The play of rookie Brandon Jennings has been outstanding. The Bucks have had three full days off in between games and that can play a big role here in preparation for playing a team such as Los Angeles. The Lakers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games when playing with no rest while the underdog is on a solid 10-1-1 run in this series. Milwaukee is a perfect 6-0 ATS the last six meetings. 8* Milwaukee Bucks
|
|||||||
12-16-09 | Charlotte Bobcats +4 v. Indiana Pacers | Top | 98-101 | Win | 100 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
**9** NBA DARK HORSE DANDY *14-4 DHD RUN* One look at the 1-10 road record of Charlotte is going to sway a lot of people from taking the Bobcats here but that should not be taken into consideration. I will agree that the record is not good and the fact that one of those losses came against New Jersey is even worse but for the most part, those road games have been brutal. The list includes Cleveland, Boston, Detroit, Orlando, Milwaukee, San Antonio and Dallas all of which are at least 8-4 on their home floors. Overall charlotte has been playing much better as after a 3-9 start, it is 7-4 over its last 11 games and the start of this recent run began with an easy home win over Indiana. The Pacers will be out for some revenge but most importantly they will be just out to win and it won
|
|||||||
12-16-09 | Memphis Grizzlies +9.5 v. Atlanta Hawks | Top | 97-110 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
**7** NBA POWER PLAY SITUATION *77% ANGLE* Memphis is coming off a couple very good games against Miami and Boston, winning the former on the road by a wide margin and losing to the latter by just five points at home. The Grizzlies are 10-14 on the season which is just a one-game improvement through 24 games last season but it is their recent success that has us really liking this team now. After starting the season 1-8, Memphis has won nine of its last 15 including two big home win against Cleveland and Dallas at home as well as that Miami game on the road as mentioned. The Allen Iverson experiment was a big failure but that has not done anything to the mentality of this team and there is a great mixture of youth and experience that can lead this team to even bigger things. Atlanta is off to a solid start again this year as it has won four straight games following a rough 2-4 straight prior to that. I don
|
|||||||
12-15-09 | Los Angeles Lakers v. Chicago Bulls +10.5 | Top | 96-87 | Win | 100 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
**9** NBA DARK HORSE DANDY *13-4 DHD RUN* Less than a month ago, the Lakers were favored by 9.5 points over Chicago at home. Now they are favored by 9.5 points on the road. Granted the results of the two since then have been on opposite ends as Los Angeles is 9-1 while Chicago is 2-9 but the schedules have played a big role in that. The Lakers have the second best record in the NBA but their schedule has had a lot to do with that. They are the defending World Champions so we know how good they are but playing 29th ranked schedule in the league has certainly not hurt the cause. 17 of their first 21 games came at home which is insane and they have gotten a great early break by the NBA. The five road games have not been particularly good either as they are 3-2 with one win coming against Golden St. with the other two coming in overtime at Oklahoma City and Houston. Los Angeles is just +0.6 ppg in its five road games. They Bulls have been playing a tougher slate with the majority of their games coming on the road. They are 2-10 in 12 games away from Chicago but a much more respectable 6-4 at home. The home loss against New Jersey is a bad one for sure but the fact that Chicago lost by 26 points last time out against the Celtics actually helps us here as it does add to that line value and will most certainly get the team more focused this time around to avoid another embarrassing home loss like that one. The Bulls had a pathetic shooting game against Boston and that plays into a situation explained in a little bit. The Kobe Bryant situation is sill a little fuzzy. He broke his finger against Minnesota and came back with a 7-24 effort against Utah but the flu was blamed for that one. I believe the finger is the issue and it will be for a while. Bryant didn't practice Monday before the team left for Chicago and could be hampered by that broken right index finger. The situation referred to earlier says to play against teams that are shooting 46 percent or better on the season going up against an opponent after a game where it shot 35 percent or worse from the floor. This situation is 149-92 ATS (61.8 percent) since 1996 with the average point differential being just -2.1 ppg. The Lakers are just 1-4 ATS in their last five games as a road favorite while the Bulls are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games as a home underdog. 9* Chicago Bulls
|
|||||||
12-13-09 | San Antonio Spurs v. Los Angeles Clippers +5.5 | Top | 115-90 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
**9** NBA DARK HORSE DANDY *13-3 DHD RUN* The Spurs are favored here, well simply because it is the Spurs. San Antonio has no business being a road chalk with its 11-9 record that includes a 1-5 mark on the road. This situation is very similar to the Lakers situation from last night in that San Antonio has benefitted from a very favorable early season schedule as 14 of the first 20 games came at home which is the second biggest home/road disparity in the league behind Los Angeles. Despite this, and the schedule being ranked 24th in the league in strength, the Spurs are not off to a great start but the public still pounds them and that is a main cause for this road line to be as high as it is. As of early Sunday, 78 percent of action has come San Antonio
|