Memphis is coming off a big upset win at Dallas last night and while that normally could spell letdown, I do not think it is the case with this team as the Grizzlies have been in this position before and succeeded. They won on a last second shot after trailing by as many as 18 points and while those are normal angles to fade, a loss tonight would make that Sunday win pretty meaningless. Memphis is currently in the eighth and final playoff spot as it is just a game and a half ahead of Phoenix and Utah so every game counts. Negating the Memphis letdown is a possible Oklahoma City letdown as well as the Thunder are also coming off a win last night, at home against Phoenix in overtime. That was their third straight victory following three consecutive losses so the streak has turned around but things have been difficult on the road recently. After winning four straight games away from home, the Thunder have dropped three of their last four and while they are coming off a win over Atlanta in the last, that was a letdown for the Hawks. The Grizzlies did lose their last game played at home, which was on Friday against New Orleans but they had won five straight and nine of 10 prior to that with the lone loss coming against the Lakers and wins against Orlando and San Antonio. Going back even further shows that Memphis has gained a significant home court advantage as it started the season with a 2-4 record at FedEx Forum but has since gone 19-5. Memphis is now ranked 11th in the NBA in power ranking, just three spots behind the Thunder. Both teams are playing the second game of a back-to-back set and that favors the home team. Memphis is 14-3-1 ATS when playing on no rest including a 4-0-1 record when the second game is at home. Oklahoma City 7-4 ATS when playing with no rest but it is 1-3 straight up and 2-2 against the number when going from home to the road. The Grizzlies are 10-2 ATS this season following an outright win as underdogs while going 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games against teams with a winning percentage greater than .600. 10* (512) Memphis Grizzlies

This is a great number for a

The Clippers won for us on Wednesday and we will go with them again tonight. They defeated the Rockets while sneaking out the cover and situation is extremely similar tonight. Houston was on a roll with a five-game winning streak before losing and tonight, Denver comes in with a three-game winning streak as well as a 6-1 record over its last seven games. The Nuggets have played six games since Anthony and Billups left and they have gone 5-1. Four wins have come at home while going 1-1 on the road. It was a big win for the clippers on Wednesday as they needed it badly. Heading into that game against the Rockets, they had lost five straight and eight of their last nine games. Going back even further, Los Angeles was 2-12 over its last 14 games and of those, 12 were on the road as they were involved in a huge road swing. The two home games resulted in losses however they came against the Celtics and Bulls, two of the top teams in the Eastern Conference so there is some legitimacy to that bad run. This is the fourth meeting of the season between these two teams as the home team has won each of the first three games but note that the Clippers have covered all three of those. This is a solid price for Los Angeles and even though it has not fared well as a short chalk, the Nuggets offset that with issues as a short underdog. Despite the huge variance in records overall, the Clippers home record is five games better than the Nuggets road record and that should equate to a bigger line, which is line value on our side. We lost a tough one with the Nuggets Thursday as Utah missed layup in the final second on the game prevented overtime. The home team has actually won eight straight meetings in this series and with the line for tonight, a win by the home team is a probable cover. Denver is just 12-23 ATS in its last 35 road games following a road game while the Clippers are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games as well as 5-0 ATS in their last five games as a home favorite of fewer than five points. 10* (512) Los Angeles Clippers

This is a tough spot for Miami. The Heat are coming off a game Thursday night against Eastern Conference rival Orlando and now they must play the next night on the road against the best team in the NBA. To Miami

These teams met in Golden St. just less than two weeks ago and while that game did go

Denver has arguably been playing a lot better since the massive trade that took place recently and even though everyone said that the Carmelo Anthony situation was not a distraction is not speaking the truth. It was a huge distraction for him, the coaching staff and the other players. Now that everything has settled down, the Nuggets are playing some great team basketball but that being said, the situation tonight calls for a look at the opposite side as Denver is ripe for a loss. The Nuggets have played five games since Anthony and Billups left and they have gone 4-1 in those games. All four wins have come at home while the only loss happened to be the only road game played at Portland. That ended up being a close overtime loss but I expect a much more significant defeat this time around. Denver is coming off two straight double-digit wins including a 40-point victory last night over Charlotte. If there is aver a time to play the bounce angle, it is after a win like that. Utah has not been playing very well and coupled with the Denver success, it is steering people toward the Nuggets and thus increasing our line value on the Jazz. Utah has dropped two straight and seven of its last nine games and the once intimidating home floor advantage is no more. The Jazz have dropped six straight games at home to drop to 17-14 on the season at EnergySolutions Arena. Three of those came against title contenders and while excuses aren

Exactly one month ago, these teams met in Orlando and we had an

I played and won against Phoenix on Monday as it ended up winning straight up against the Nets but failed to cover the number. The Suns have won all three games to begin this roadtrip but obviously the test becomes a little stiffer here. The situation is not in their favor as the last two games easily could have been lost but Phoenix won both of those games on last second shots in overtime and something says the basketball gods are not going to hang around Phoenix very long. Boston went 3-1 on its roadtrip and it is now home for a short two-game homestand before heading to Milwaukee over the weekend. The Celtics have been solid at home this season by going 25-5 with four of those five losses coming against elite teams. A surprising loss against Houston was the shocking one but sense then, Boston is 7-0 against teams it should be beating and Phoenix fits that list. The Celtics are also 25-5 overall against teams ranked in the bottom half of the NBA. This is a very big revenge game for Boston as the Celtics lost in Phoenix back in late January in a game that was never close. The Celtics fell behind by a lot early and could not recover. That was the second game of a back-to-back on the road and Boston has been horrible in that situation, going 2-7 this season with no rest with the second game being on the road. Overall, the Celtics are 6-7 straight up playing with no rest and 37-8 in all of the other games. The old guys need some time to gets refreshes is all. Making this even more of a revenge game is the fact that Boston has lost three straight against the Suns and Phoenix is the only team Boston has not defeated in the last two years which really says something about the Celtics but also how the Suns have had their number. Trust me, these players remember. The Celtics are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game and 4-1 ATS in their last five games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. 10* (712) Boston Celtics

Dallas comes into this game on a huge run as it has won six straight games including all three since the All-Star break and going back even further, the Mavericks are 16-1 in their last 17 games with the only defeat coming by just one point at Denver. I played against Dallas on Saturday as it won but failed to cover against Washington but it then came back and rolled against Toronto on Sunday. This one is the biggest test on this east coast swing and the recent run is giving us excellent line value on the home team. While the Mavericks have been hot, so have the Sixers. They have also won their first three games since the All-Star break and have won four straight overall and going back to January they are 13-4 over their last 17 games. It is not quite the same record as Dallas but it is pretty close and that put Philadelphia in a good spot with this number at home. The Sixers are 19-9 at home this season but they have been better after a slow 1-5 start in their first six games as they have gone 18-4 last in their last 22 home games. Dallas took the first meeting of this season series by nine points at home way back in November which was right in the middle of the Sixers rough start where they opened 3-13 in their first 16 games. They have since gone 27-16 and are looking more like a team that is ready to cause some headaches for the top teams in the conference. Philadelphia continues to reward its backers as it is 37-21-1 ATS on the season and that is the highest ATS win percentage in the league yet it still is flying under the radar. As mentioned this is a revenge game for the Sixers and they have been outstanding in payback mode this season, going 15-3 ATS in their 18 games revenging a road loss. They are also set up with other runs that play into this game as they are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games as home underdogs of fewer than five points and 8-1 ATS in their last nine games against tea with a winning percentage greater than .600. The mavericks are rolling but Philadelphia is right there and the advantage goes to the home team. 10* (506) Philadelphia 76ers

New Jersey returns home for the first time in two weeks following a three-game roadtrip that overlapped the All-Star break. The Nets went 0-3 on the trip, losing to the Celtics, Spurs and Rockets. Going back further the Nets have dropped five in a row with two home losses against the Knicks and Spurs so the recent schedule has been a tough one. New Jersey however catches a great situation tonight as it is the first game of a seven-game homestand and that can definitely get the batteries recharged. Phoenix meanwhile has won three straight games including the first two on this homestand over Toronto and Indiana. The latter came on Sunday in overtime over the Pacers on a last second three-pointer no not only are the Suns playing with no rest but they are playing in a severe letdown scenario. They are now a game under .500 on the road which is just a half-game better than the Nets home record so the fact that Phoenix is a favorite is based on name and overall record only. Phoenix is 0-4 straight up and 1-3 ATS when playing the second of back-to-back road games. The Suns won the first meeting in Phoenix but that came in overtime and they were able to cover the six-point number thanks to a big overtime period. They fought back from a 15-point deficit so that win and cover is definitely misleading in what really happened in that contest. Based on the change in venue, the number should shift about seven points based on the home court shift and that is where we get additional value. Despite some recent struggles, the Nets are playing well against the big boys as they are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games against teams with a winning record. They have also owned the Western Conference which may sound surprising but they are 9-1 ATS in their 10 home non-conference home games this season. New Jersey has also been a great team to rebound on its home floor as it is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 home games after having lost five or six of their last seven games this season. 10* (704) New Jersey Nets

Houston is 3-0 out of the gates following the All-Star break but I

Washington returns home after a gallant effort in Miami as it lost by just eight points. The Wizards are now 1-28 on the road so a loss certainly came as no surprise but they are a much more respectable 14-14 at home and the new roster should see more action tonight. Maurice Evans, Mike Bibby and Jordan Crawford played only 32 combined minutes in their first game since coming over from Atlanta. The Wizards are ATS in their last 10 home games against teams with a road winning percentage greater than .600. Dallas is once again playing exceptional basketball as it has won four straight games and 14 of its last 15 contests with a one-point loss in Denver being the only setback. The Mavericks rolled over Utah in their last game and that has been the only game played since before the All-Star break, a span of 10 days. That hurts momentum as teams want to keep playing when things are going good. Washington meanwhile has already played three games and I feel that is a big edge. These teams played less than a month ago and Dallas was favored by 9.5 points on its home floor. Now the Mavericks are favored by that same amount on the road and that is a massive overadjustment or we could say that it is an adjustment that has not been made due to the venue change. Both teams have been playing the opposite since then but we have to remember that laying close to double-digits at home and laying close to double-digits on the road are two completely different matters in this league. The loss of momentum for the Mavericks as mentioned is also part of a league-wide contrarian situation favoring the Wizards. Play against road teams that have covered six or seven of their last eight games against the spread and are playing only their 2nd game in seven days. This situation is 38-12 ATS (76 percent) over the last five seasons with the average point differential being +7.2 ppg actually favoring the home team. This is a very generous number which we can take advantage of tonight. 10* (506) Washington Wizards

This is a great setup for Orlando. The Magic are coming off a dreadful home loss against Sacramento on Wednesday as they were favored by 14.5 points but ended up losing by six points. Whether they were looking ahead to this game or not makes no difference but that loss puts Orlando in a much better position that had it rolled over the Kings like it should have done. The last two times this season that Orlando lost at home with a home game that followed, it rolled over the Spurs and Lakers by 22 and 14 points respectively. Oklahoma City is coming off a tough loss of its own but it was against the best team in the NBA in San Antonio so it was expected. The Thunder ended up covering that game after blowing an eight-point lead and then coming back from 11 points down to make a game of it. Oklahoma City has been a solid road team this season as it is 16-12 but eight of those 12 losses came as an underdog and even though this is a big game, the Thunder host the Lakers on Sunday and there is the possibility of a lookahead there. Oklahoma City

I am also playing on the

I played against Chicago Wednesday as it was its first game back from the All-Star break and it had this game to look forward to. The Bulls won the last meeting with Miami at home on 1/29 and while the Heat will be out for payback, it will not be easy here. Playing at home has been a completely different story as the Bulls are 25-4 on their home floor and they have lost only one home game in 2011 as they are 12-1 since the start of the year and going back further they are 15-1 in their last 16 games. Miami had a laugher on Tuesday in its first game back against a shorthanded Sacramento team. The Heat have certainly picked things up after a slow start to the season as they are 42-15 overall and they have won 11 of 12 games. However, taking a look at the schedule and you can see why as only two wins came against teams that will be in the playoffs, Orlando and Oklahoma City while the lone loss came against a similar team in Boston. Miami opened as the favorite despite a worse road record than Chicago

Remember when Phoenix used to have a home court advantage? The Suns have lost 13 gamers this season after losing only nine all of last season, so they have definitely lost a lot of that edge. They are just 12-17 against the number in their home games showing the role of favorite has not treated them very well. For the most part, the Suns have defeated the teams they should beat and lost to the teams they should lose to as they are 17- against the bottom half of the league but just 10-21 against the top half. I played against the Hawks last night as they were blasted by the Lakers by 24 points. That was more of a play on Los Angeles because of its recent struggles and the main concern last night was the Hawks 3-10 record against teams ranked in the top ten and while that record dropped to 3-11, they don

This is a pretty big game for the Lakers coming out of the All-Star break. They finished the first half on a seven-game roadtrip and it started out great with a 4-0 record but they dropped their last three games including an embarrassing loss against Cleveland, a team they defeated earlier in the season by 55 points. After that loss, every media outlet was all over them stating that the reigning champs are done. I have a feeling that Los Angeles players will have something to say about that. The Hawks are involved in an unusual trip as they played their final two games prior to the All-Star break on the road, went home, and now they are starting a five-game west coast trek. Atlanta was rolling along pretty good at the start of January with five straight wins but it has been a rough time since then as the Hawks are just 8-7 over their last 15 games including a 1-3 record over their last four games. They have played the easiest schedule in the NBA so the record should be better than it actually is. Atlanta has beaten up on the bad teams in the league, going 24-8 against the bottom half of the NBA but it is just 3-10 against teams ranked in the top 10. And with all of the negative talk, yes the Lakers are still in that group. Playing at home is definitely an edge and the importance of this game is even more considering the Lakers were 1-3 in their last four home games prior to the recent roadtrip. The six days off could not have come at a better time for a team that needs a recharge. The Lakers have been one of the most overvalued teams in the NBA this season as proven by their below average ATS mark but I feel there is actually value on them in this game based on the recent struggles and the public possibly jumping ship. As mentioned, the Hawks have struggled with the elite teams in the NBA and that carries over into their ATS record as they are 4-10 ATS into their last 14 games against teams with a winning record. The home team has won six straight in this series, covering five of those. 10* (516) Los Angeles Lakers

We played on Chicago on Tuesday and won as the Bulls defeated Charlotte by 12 points. They remain home to play their final game before the All-Star break and it comes against the best team in the NBA which will no doubt be a motivating factor. Chicago is a game over .500 on the road but playing at home has been a completely different story as the Bulls are 24-4 and they have lost only one home game in 2011 as they are 11-1 since the start of the year and going back further they are 14-1 in their last 15 games. This is the final road game for San Antonio and its annual rodeo trip and it has been a success thus far with a 6-2 record. While it has been a long one, it has been an easy one with the Lakers being the only challenge and this is arguably the biggest test of the bunch. Five of the Spurs last six games in this roadtrip have come against teams not even close to playoff spots while the one game against the Sixers, the only playoff contender, resulted in the lone loss. The Spurs are now 34-3 when scoring at least 100 points and 12-6 when they don

Portland is finishing strong right before the All-Star break as it comes into this final game riding a five-game winning streak. Granted the competition has been pretty dreadful with the exception of a home win over Chicago but wins are wins and they provide a lot of confidence and momentum moving forward. A win here would be big as the other end of the homestand after the break is going to be extremely tough for the Blazers. This is also a big double-revenge spot so motivation is not an issue. The Hornets have arguably been the streakiest team in the NBA this season as they started out 11-1 and then went 7-13 over its next 20 games followed by another upswing by going 13-2, including a 10-game winning streak, before going 2-7 in their last nine games heading into Golden St. on Tuesday. They have dropped eight of nine against the number and we did take them in the one game they did cover against Orlando but this is a team that is clearly struggling for any sort of positive outcomes. It would have been good to bet Brandon Roy and Marcus Camby back for this game as last week, this was the targeted game but both are likely out until after the break. On the plus side, it does provide a better line for us that those two will not be in the lineup and if for some reason one or both can play, it is a bonus. The Hornets won by 20 and 19 points in the first two meetings this season but both were in November when they were playing good. Portland still remembers despite those games being so long ago. The Hornets are 15-8 ATS against the Eastern Conference but just 12-19-1 against the Western Conference and that tells a lot right there. Portland has won 24 of 33 games when favored this season including 15 of 20 at home so this is a role it is accustomed to and succeeded in. The Blazers have covered five of their last seven against the Western Conference as well so beating those Eastern Conference bottom feeders is not going to provide any sort of letdown here, especially with payback on the line. 10* (724) Portland Trail Blazers

Chicago is back home following a pretty successful roadtrip where it went 3-2 to move to over .500 in its 25 road games this season. Playing at home has been a completely different story as the Bulls are 23-4 on their home floor and they have lost only one home game in 2011 as they are 10-1 since the start of the year and going back further they are 13-1 in their last 14 games and the lone loss happened to come against these same Bobcats, which is the second loss against Charlotte in two meetings this season. The Bobcats head into this game following a game on Monday against the Lakers and that is a game every team gets up for, especially on its home floor. That definitely spells a letdown situation here even though the Bulls are one of the top teams in the Eastern Conference. Charlotte has struggled this season when playing with no rest as it is 5-11 ATS in the second of a back-to-back set and this includes a 1-4 ATS record when going from home to on the road. Chicago was favored by 7.5 points in that most recent meeting less than a month ago and the line has risen past that this time around. It may seem high but this is right in the Bulls range as they are 6-1 ATS when laying between 8.0 and 9.5 points while the Bobcats are 1-3 ATS as underdogs of the same price range. The 27 Bulls home games have been decided by an average of just under 10 ppg and the 23 wins have come by an average of 13.3 ppg. Of those, 12 were by double-digits and only six were by fewer than nine points. Play on teams with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 that are revenging a straight up loss as a home favorite of seven points or more to teams with a winning percentage between .400 and .499. This situation is 48-21 ATS (69.6 percent) since 1996. Also, the Bulls are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games after playing three consecutive road games and the Bobcats are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 road games when playing against teams with a winning percentage between .600 and .700 in the second half of the season. 10* (508) Chicago Bulls

Milwaukee was horrible last night as it shot 36.4 percent from the floor in its loss against Memphis. Despite that horrible offensive effort, the Bucks were involved pretty much throughout the game and ended up losing by just three points. It is no consolation but at least Milwaukee gets to return home after playing five of its last seven games on the road while losing six of those. The Bucks have been decent this season when playing with no rest, going 9-5 ATS and they fin themselves in a solid spot. The Pacers are a changed team since Jim O

We are taking another shot at the Bucks

After defeating the Hawks by 34 points in Atlanta on Tuesday, the Sixers came back down to earth as they lost at home the following night to Orlando by four points. That was a very good example of the

The first meeting between Boston and Los Angeles saw a high scoring game and one that went well over the total. That game was only 11 days ago and yet, we are seeing a jump in the posted total from a closing of 185.5 in that first meeting to 187.5 in this second meeting. Prior to that game on January 30th, the Celtics and Lakers played five straight

The Bucks have been a solid

Detroit has gone

Charlotte has burned us in its last two games but we hop back on here in what is arguably the best situation of them all. The Bobcats have dropped the first two games of this homestand against Miami and Dallas, two teams playing exceptionally well right now. Charlotte has fallen to a game under .500 at home but it certainly is not because of bad play. In 2011, the Bobcats have played nine home games and seven of those have come against teams currently holding down playoff spots. Boston is coming off a big win yesterday over Orlando and this spot is very similar to when we played against the Celtics back on January 28th. Boston has been struggling in this situation all season long as it is just 6-6 straight up and 3-9 ATS in the second of a back-to-back set. Being one of the older teams in the NBA, it does not come as much of a surprise that the Celtics have struggled. Also, Boston is just 2-6 both straight up and against the number when playing with no rest and the second game coming on the road. Not only is Boston coming off a big win over a conference rival and playing with no rest, the upcoming schedule should have it peeking ahead as the Celtics host the Lakers and the Heat in their two upcoming games this week. That makes this game against Charlotte the ultimate sandwich spot. We are also getting some exceptional line value as Charlotte was getting eight points in Boston just over three weeks ago which means this line should be closer to a pickem than to its current 4.5 points. The Bobcats have had their problems during this recent stretch of home games against the top teams they have faced but Charlotte is 22-9 ATS in its last 31 games after having lost four of their last five games. Meanwhile, on top of the bad no rest record, Boston has covered back-to-back games only once since mid-December and it is just 3-12-1 ATS in its last 16 games following a win and going back further it is 14-36-1 ATS in its last 51 games following a double-digit win. 10* (702) Charlotte Bobcats

Indiana is 3-0 since head coach Jim O

You wouldn

Like Orlando, Miami is coming off a big game last night and one that it almost let get away. The Heat nearly blew a 23-point lead against Orlando in the fourth quarter but they managed to hold on and pull off the outright underdog win. That sets up a great situation in itself as explained later. Miami was a very motivated team last night as proven by LeBron James and his postgame comment.

This is the third meeting between the Heat and Magic with the first two games splitting the totals. What makes those different from tonight

Cleveland has lost 21 straight games including eight straight at home. That should tell you something right there. Not to defend the losing streak, but 13 of those games have been on the road including 10 of the last 13 games so it has been a rough slate. Speaking of rough, while the majority of the games have been on the road, the majority of the overall games have come against playoff contending teams as of those 21 games, 17 have come against squads either qualified for postseason or within three games. Indiana is coming off a home win against the Raptors in the first game under interim head coach Frank Vogel. The Pacers played with renewed energy under the new coach and that is generally the case when a coach is fired as the team tends to step up in such instances. However it usually does not last long as a team cannot be very good to begin with if their coach was let go and that is certainly the case for the Pacers. Indiana is nine games under .500 including 10 games under .500 on the road. The Pacers have not been road favorites since the last day of November and the reason is that they are 1-14 over their last 15 road games. They have to be put into the role of road favorite here only because they are playing a team that has not won since before Christmas but nonetheless, they do not deserve it. Cleveland will break out eventually and this is a good spot to do it in as its toughest schedule ranking in the NBA is causing some inflated numbers even it should not be seeing. The Cavaliers may be considered risky by some but the Pacers cannot be trusted as they have won just five games during the span of the Cleveland losing streak. The Pacers are just 1-7 ATS in their last eight games as road favorites dating back to last season and the Cavaliers fall into a very solid contrarian situation. Play on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points after eight or more consecutive losses and playing their 3rd game in four days. This situation is 61-30 ATS (67 percent) since 1996. 10* (704) Cleveland Cavaliers

We have been spot on with the Celtics the last two games and we will get involved with them again on Tuesday. Boston put up a dud in Phoenix on Friday as they were hammered by the Suns in what looked to be a lookahead game to the Lakers on Sunday. We sides with Boston against Los Angeles as it was a very emotional and focused team that went into Staples Center as it was the first time the Celtics had seen the Lakers since the loss in the NBA Finals a season ago. With that big win and this being the final game of this west coast roadtrip, I expect Boston to come out flat once again especially with its recent domination in this series. The Kings have gotten things together somewhat and are playing much better lately. They are coming off back-to-back wins against the Lakers and Hornets and while their 4-8 record over the last 12 games looks bad, the schedule has had a lot to do with that as nine of those 12 games were on the road. Since the end of December, Sacramento has played just seven home games and they are 4-3 in those games. Wins came against Memphis, Phoenix, Denver and the aforementioned Hornets so they have been against some stellar opposition. The losses came against Charlotte, Portland and Atlanta by five, four and six points respectively. This came after a 3-14 start at home so it is pretty obvious the Kings have been able to turn things around and at least become competitive on their home floor. The situations definitely favor Sacramento here as the Kings are 5-0 ATS in their last five games against teams with a winning record while the Celtics are 1-4 ATS in their last five games against teams with a losing record. Boston is 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 games after a win and 15-35-1 ATS in its last 51 games following a double-digit win. Also, the Celtics are only 1-7 ATS in their last eight games following a cover while Sacramento is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games as an underdog between 5.0 and 10.5 points. 10* (504) Sacramento Kings

Both teams had Sunday off and both are coming off low scoring games on Saturday. The Bucks defeated New Jersey by 10 points in easily the lowest scoring game of the night as just 172 points hit the board. The Clippers defeated the Bobcats by 15 points as they allowed only 88 points and that game stayed

Denver has started 3-0 on its current roadtrip which is pretty impressive considering it entered the trek with a 5-13 record in its first 18 games away from home. The road wins are big for a team fighting for positioning in the Western Conference but as big as they have been, they are pretty unimpressive. The Nuggets were favored in all three which should tell you something right there as they came against three of the five worst teams in the Eastern Conference. That is not exactly overpowering. The Sixers were rolling along with three straight wins until Friday and an absolute nightmare of a fourth quarter. They headed into the final period with a 16-point lead and were outscored by Memphis 42-21 and lost by five points. Philadelphia actually had a lead of 21 points at one point in the third quarter but the monumental collapse left it with questions to answer. The Sixers looked at the last quarter on film to use that as a motivator and I expect them to come out fully focused here. The problem in that final quarter against the Grizzlies was a lack of focus which led to turnovers, 11 of them in fact. The Sixers finished with 22 turnovers, only the second time they have committed more than 20 in a game. They are tied for third in the NBA with the fewest turnovers with 12.8 per game. This is a revenge game for Denver which lost at home to Philadelphia by six points the day after Christmas but as mentioned several time, road revenge is a very difficult thing to attain in the this league. The Nuggets are extremely banged up down low. While Chris Anderson returns, both Al Harrington and Kenyon Martin will not play and the time Nene will see is still a question as he battles a strained calf. Philadelphia is 9-1 ATS when playing against teams with a winning percentage between .600 and .700 while Denver is 3-12-2 ATS in its last 17 road games against teams with a home winning percentage greater than .400. The Sixers are also 16-4 ATS against strong offenses shooting 46 percent or better from the floor. 10* (808) Philadelphia 76ers

Neither Houston nor San Antonio played last night which should benefit the defense of both sides as extra rest means fresher legs. The Spurs are home following a three-game roadtrip and this is their final home game until after the All-Star break as their annual rodeo roadtrip is here. They are coming off two relatively high scoring games, at least for San Antonio standards, and both of these games went

Miami rattled off 21 wins in 22 games before dropping four straight games right after that. The Heat came back with a home win over Toronto in their last game which was all the back to Saturday. The last loss was the Tuesday prior so Miami has had a very long stretch with only two games played and a lot of needed rest thrown in there. That four-game skid seems like a long time ago and in fact it was so expect Miami to come into this game fresh and ready to start another big winning streak. The Knicks were rolling along with 18 wins in 24 games but they have since gone 2-7 over their last nine games with the last victory snapping a six-game losing streak. The win was important to stop the bleeding but it came against the Wizards who remain winless on the road so it was far from a great win. The Knicks are only two games over .500 at home and while they have been great covering as underdogs, they are just 1-4 ATS in their last five games as home underdogs of fewer than five points. The effort from New York against Washington was not good enough to prepare them for Miami. They allowed the Wizards to battle back from a 13-point deficit in the second quarter and stay neck-and-neck until midway through the fourth. Offensively, the Knicks were able to do some of the things that they were doing well during their positive run but the Wizards defense helped out in that. Miami has the NBA's second-best defense, as measured by field-goal percentage, allowing just 42.9 percent shooting from the floor. Miami falls into a great situation. Play on road favorites after having lost four or five of their last six games that have played five or less games in 14 days. This situation is 28-11 ATS (71.8 percent) since 1996. As mentioned earlier, the Knicks have not done well as home underdogs of late and Miami is 19-9 ATS in its last 28 games as a road favorite and it is 7-3-1 ATS in its last 11 road games against teams with a winning home record. Like the first meeting in New York this season, the Heat roll. 10* (501) Miami Heat

This game sets up pretty similar to the San Antonio game on Monday which won against Golden St. Oklahoma City is not coming off as embarrassing of a loss as the Spurs were but the Thunder lost in New Orleans on Monday after blowing a 15-point lead and that sets up a good spot for the road favorite. Oklahoma City is 12-10 on the road this season and sitting just a game behind Dallas for third place in the Western Conference, these are the games it needs to win. I would normally take a look at Minnesota in the home underdog role here but after a decent late December run, the Timberwolves have been playing very poorly. They have lost nine of their last 10 games with the only win coming against Washington at home, which are still winless on the road. Minnesota has defeated only two teams with a winning record this season, New York and New Orleans, and it is 1-16 overall against teams ranked in the top ten in the league. Overall, the Thunder have dropped three of their last four games and the problem has been poor shooting. They are shooting 43.8 percent from the floor including 22.9 percent from long range but they face one of the league

Washington found a way to lose again on the road as it once again faltered in the second half. The Wizards dropped to 0-21 on the road but as noted earlier on this team many times, they are a much different team at home. They are 13-9 at home and this includes a win last time out against the Celtics on Saturday. We won with Washington in that game and we are coming back with the Wizards again as they catch a great number. Against Boston, it was more revenge but against Denver, it is road woes on the other side. Denver is 20-5 at home, one of only four teams in the NBA to have 20 or more home wins on the season. The problem is that the Nuggets are 5-13 on the road and their 23-game differential in home/road wins and losses is second in the league behind, you guessed it, Washington. So we have the teams with the two biggest margins on the floor and yet the road team is favored. Making matters worse for the Nuggets is that this is just their second road game since January 6th, a span of nine games. This is the start of a five-game roadtrip for Denver and the best news is that all five games are against teams that have losing records and that is good because Denver is 16-6 against teams with losing records this season. The bad news is that five of those six losses came on the road. While this roadtrip is important for Denver, this game is important for Washington as following this, it plays its next four games on the road all against Western Conference teams virtually assured of the playoffs or well within reach. Denver is on a 5-16 ATS run the last two seasons as a road favorite of six or fewer points while going 2-11 ATS in its last 13 road games following a game where 225 or more total points were scored. Despite being one of the top teams recently, the Nuggets have struggled against poor teams, going 9-23 ATS in their last 32 games against teams getting outscored by three or more ppg. Washington meanwhile is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games against the NBA Southwest Division. 10* (502) Washington Wizards

I would normally be taking a hard look at the home underdog in this spot as I

With a short Sunday card, we are taking a look at the total tonight and I think there is a lot of value on the

I think the Knicks can hang around in this game and stop the recent bleeding that has been taking place. New York was on a 4-1 run as well as a 19-7 run going back to late November but it has dropped four straight games including the last two on the road. It has been a case of the defense playing bad when the offense is playing good and the offense playing bad when the defense is playing good. This is a team that has shown many times this season that it is able to bounce back against the best. The Spurs continue their torrid run through the NBA. San Antonio has won seven straight games following a small two-game skid, its only two-game losing streak of the entire season. One of those consecutive losses happened to come in New York so many will be on the Spurs here playing the revenge angle and while that is an angle that can be very successful, it is not here as explained later. The Spurs are an NBA best 23-2 at home but they are just 14-11 ATS which shows the value going the other way. Danilo Gallinari is back in the lineup for the Knicks following an absence of six games with New York going 3-3 in those games. They have dropped both since his return but they are once again readjusting the rotations which can cause early issues. New York has allowed 114.3 ppg during its losing streak, and Amare Stoudemire sounded fed up after the latest defeat. New York's only win in 10 games when allowing 100 points came against San Antonio. The Spurs will be highly motivated for some payback tonight after their horrible effort in New York earlier in the month but they are just 14-27 ATS in their last 41 games revenging a road loss. The Knicks are 16-5 ATS as underdogs this season and fall into a situation where you play on road teams that are averaging 103 or more ppg on the season, after a blowout loss by 15 points or more. This situation is 78-42 ATS (65 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (815) New York Knicks

We won with the Mavericks last night but we are going the other way tonight. While last night wasn

The Clippers have been playing much better this season of late as they have won nine of their last 13 games including a huge home upset last night against the Lakers. That said, I expect a huge letdown today from Los Angeles as it will be difficult to bring that same energy to the floor against the Pacers. The Clippers have had the luxury of a very soft schedule of late as this is their ninth home game in their last 12 games and both road games were in California to the travel has been minimal. Indiana begins a four-game west coast trip following a loss at home against the Bulls on Friday. It has been a very difficult stretch for the Pacers as they are 5-11 over their last 16 games including a 1-6 record on the road but they did win their most recent road game against Philadelphia and now they are fully healthy for the first time in a long while. Indiana is calling this a big game and a big trip as well.

This may start to sound old but we will be backing Charlotte again tonight. The Bobcats may have lost last night in Boston but they put forth an excellent effort and they were able to cover the big number to make it five straight spread wins. They head back to Charlotte tonight where they are 11-9 on the season and Charlotte has the better home/road split record in this matchup. The Bobcats opened as the underdog but quickly moved to the favorite despite the majority of action being on the road team. The coaching change that the Bobcats have gone has paid off thus far. After beginning 9-19 under Larry Brown, Charlotte has gone 6-3 under interim coach Paul Silas. The players, who were said to have quit under Brown, are playing with more energy as they are running once again and the up-tempo style so far has been a success. They have scored 96 or more points in six of those nine games and under Brown, they put up 96 or more points only eight times in 28 games. This is the third game in four nights for the Bobcats but it is also the same for New Orleans and the Hornets situation is much different. They are coming off an overtime win last night in Houston which came on the heels of an overtime win over Orlando on Wednesday. New Orleans is 6-2 over its last eight games so it is playing well but motivation will play a role as well as Charlotte will be looking for some payback following a 16-point loss in New Orleans back in December. The Bobcats record could be better as bad luck has been on their side as 10 of the 22 losses have been by five points or fewer. The Bobcats are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games against teams with a losing road record which ties into their 16-5 ATS record in their last 21 games as a home favorite of fewer than five points and this season they are 5-1 ATS as a favorite of fewer than four points. The roll continues Saturday as the Bobcats rebound from last night and get their revenge. 10* (506) Charlotte Bobcats

I

This is a very good setup for the Pacers. Indiana has won two straight games following a stretch of going 1-6 prior to that. The Pacers have kept things really competitive however even during that bad stretch as they are 5-1 ATS in their last six games. At home this season, they are 10-9 but that record could be a lot better as losses against the Spurs, Thunder and Magic came by four points or fewer. Indiana remains in seventh place in the Eastern Conference with three teams only two games back. I played against the Bulls on Wednesday and won as Charlotte defeated them outright as three-point underdogs. This is the second game of a two-game roadtrip and while they are 17-3 at home which is the best home record in the Eastern Conference, they are two games under .500 on the road which is a typical scene in this league. Chicago has dropped four of its last five games on the road with the only win coming in overtime against Detroit by three points. The Bulls are 0-5 ATS in those four away games. Making this spot even more difficult is the fact that Chicago hosts Miami tomorrow night which puts it in a typical lookahead situation. This has not been a huge angle to play yet this season as Eastern Conference teams that are playing back-to-back games with the Heat being the second contest are 3-2 in those first games but the Pacers can add extra motivation to this one as they are out for revenge following a 19-point drubbing in Chicago last month. As mentioned, the Bulls are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games and they are also 2-5 ATS in their last seven games against teams with a losing record. The Pacers meanwhile are 11-5-2 ATS in their last 18 home games against teams with a losing road record and as the offense picks up, so doesn

We won last night on the Clippers and we will once again go against the Heat tonight. Miami put up a dud in Los Angeles last night and while an argument will be made it was looking ahead to this game, it is highly doubtful that was the case with the numerous streaks on the line. Now that Miami has finally lost, it may be time for a streak to start going the other way. LeBron James is a question mark tonight with an ankle injury and if he goes, he is not close to 100 percent. The Heat had won nine straight games and are now 21-2 over their last 23 games while covering 15 of those games. Most of those spread wins came early on in the streak when Miami was coming off a bad stretch and the lines were not inflated. Since that run started, the numbers have been adjusted and Miami is a more pedestrian 7-7 ATS over its last 14 games. Not to say Miami

This is an excellent spot for the Wizards as they look to bounce back from another road loss on Saturday at Charlotte. Washington is now 0-18 on the road this season, the lone remaining winless team away from home but it has performed a lot better on its home floor as it is 9-8 and a chance for another rebound. The Wizards are 7-5 in home games following a road loss which is nothing special but there will be some extra motivation in place for tonight

The coaching change that the Bobcats have gone has paid off thus far and there is a lot more energy with this team. After beginning 9-19 under Larry Brown, Charlotte has gone 4-2 under interim coach Paul Silas. The players, who were said to have quit under Brown, are playing with more energy in the Silas system as they are running once again and the up-tempo style so far has been a success. The schedule has been soft but wins are wins and that only helps with the confidence. Memphis had its three-game winning streak snapped with a loss at Oklahoma City on Saturday and it was a very impressive streak to say the least as the three wins came against the Thunder, Jazz and Lakers. Still, the Grizzlies have struggled on the road this season with a 6-14 record yet are road favorites in this contest, making it just the third time this season they have been in that role. It has not been a good role either as Memphis lost all three games outright. Charlotte has the better home/road split record in this matchup yet it is still the underdog. The Bobcats record could be better as bad luck has been on their side as nine of the 21 losses have been by five points or fewer. There is also an added bit of motivation for Charlotte. This is a big revenge game for the Bobcats as well as these teams played back on December 15th and Memphis gave it to the Bobcats by 33 points which is the worst loss of the season for Charlotte. The Bobcats swept the season series the previous two years so that lopsided win was more of an aberration than a normal occurrence between these two teams. Memphis is 0-4 ATS in its last four games as a road favorite of fewer than five points while the Bobcats are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games against teams with a losing road record. Also, Charlotte is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 home games following a home win in its last game. Revenge will be sweet tonight. 10* (702) Charlotte Bobcats

The Nuggets head home after getting embarrassed on Wednesday and Thursday against the Clippers and Kings respectively and they will look to take their frustrations out in a revenge spot against the Hornets. Denver lost the two games out west by 13 and 20 points to drop to 5-12 on the road this season but it is a whole different matter at home. The Nuggets are 15-3 in Denver this season with two of the losses coming against the Mavericks and Spurs by a point each. New Orleans continues its short road trip following a tough loss against the Lakers on Friday as it lost by just four points. That dropped the Hornets to 7-11 on the road including 11 of the last 15 after starting the season 3-0 on the road and trying to grab a road win here will not be easy as they have dropped five straight meetings in Denver by an average of 14.8 ppg. The Hornets have not fared well within the conference as they are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games against Western Conference teams. Denver head coach George Karl summed up the Kings game pretty simple.

Atlanta returns home following a very successful roadtrip where it went 3-1 including wins in its last three games which is part of a great situation explained later. The Hawks are now 16-7 over their last 23 games and excluding losses against New Jersey and Detroit, those other five defeats came against some elite teams. All of those were on the road as well as Atlanta brings in a nine-game home winning streak after a slow start where it went 3-5 in its first eight games. Indiana is coming off a tough loss last night at home against the Spurs and that will a tough one to bounce back from. The Pacers have been in a huge rut and a win there could have possibly gotten them going in the right direction but instead it dropped them to 5-12 over their last 17 games. This includes a 0-8 record on the road which is very disappointing following a solid 5-2 start away from home. This is a revenge game, actually eight times over, but road revenge is not in play very much in the NBA. That revenge aspect puts the Hawks into a great situation as well as the recent Atlanta road success as mentioned. Play against road teams that are revenging a loss where team scored less than 85 points going up against an opponent off three or more consecutive road wins. This situation is 33-6 ATS (84.6 percent) since 1996 including a perfect 8-0 ATS record the last five seasons. Also, the Hawks are 8-0 ATS in their last eight home games after a double-digit win as an underdog. 10* (506) Atlanta Hawks

The Bulls have won five straight games thanks to winning their last four games at home where they are 15-3 on the season. The lone road win over this streak was in Detroit in overtime to move to over .500 on the season and recently, 11 of Chicago

This is a bad spot for the Spurs. After losing at Orlando two days before Christmas which snapped a 10-game winning streak, San Antonio has started another run by winning four straight games and also covering each of those. The Spurs are the second best road team in the NBA with a 10-2 record so naturally they are going to be favored the majority of the time as they have been in seven of 12 games. They are 4-2-1 ATS in those games but only one win came against a winning team and that was Dallas without Dirk Nowitzki. Tomorrow night San Antonio heads to Boston where it will be a matchup of the top teams from each conference so there is a definite lookahead situation in place for tonight. The Spurs have dominated this series with the Knicks and despite New York owning a winning record, a full amount of focus tonight will be difficult. San Antonio has avoided some of the league

I played on the Clippers in their last game but they fell at home to the Jazz by eight points. I am coming right back here with them as they fall into a very good spot. Prior to the loss on Wednesday, it had won five of its last six games including three on the road which is most impressive. The Clippers are becoming much more competitive now that the roster has had some time to play together and this young team is coming together and playing exciting basketball. Blake Griffin is turning into a star in his rookie season as he has recorded 20 consecutive double-doubles. Atlanta lost the first game of its roadtrip in Oklahoma City on Friday to fall to .500 on the road for the season which is still pretty solid in this league. I played on the Hawks two road games back when it hammered Milwaukee but that was a big revenge situation and Atlanta was an underdog in that game with a lot of value attached to it. As a road favorite, there is no value as it is 1-3 ATS in its last four games in that role while going 2-5 ATS in its last seven games as a favorite of fewer than five points. Also, the Hawks are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games. 10* (804) Los Angeles Clippers

The Raptors are coming off a huge win against the Mavericks in their last game and because that was three nights back, any confidence from that has been lost. After a 6-2 run at the end of November and the beginning of December, Toronto has gone 3-9 over their last 12 games and things could get even worse with the injuries piling up. The injury report is dotted with six names since the game against Dallas and the Raptors could be severely shorthanded tonight and not even close to 100 percent at the very least. Houston had its five-game winning streak snapped against Miami on Wednesday but they look to close out December with one more win and improve upon their 10-4 month thus far. The game against the Heat would possibly put Houston into letdown mode here however the Rockets should be sky high for this game following their 10-pont loss at Toronto last month. The home team has won seven straight meetings in this series and each of those games were double-digit victories by the host. The Raptors are 18-37 ATS in their last 55 games as underdog between 3.5 and 9.5 points while the Rockets are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six games following a loss. 10* (810) Houston Rockets

Don

The Lakers are coming off back-to-back losses and they were ugly losses. Both came at home against Milwaukee and Miami by 19 and 16 points respectively and it has been rare for them to put together horrible consecutive showings. A trip on the road can only help and those two defeats are adding to the value here. This is the first game this season that the Lakers have been underdogs and they are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points. The Spurs bounced back from their big loss in Orlando with a home win over Washington two days ago. The loss to the Magic snapped a 10-game winning streak, which was the second double-digit winning streak for San Antonio this season. The Spurs have the best record in the NBA while their 17 wins at home are easily the most in the league. They have been very fortunate with their schedule as 19 of their 30 games have come at home. The Lakers have covered four straight games on the road and they fall into a solid situation based on their most recent setback. Play on teams that are coming off a loss by 15 points or more as a favorite, playing with two days rest. This situation is 34-12 ATS (73.9 percent) over the last five seasons with the average point differential being +4.7 ppg. While the Lakers want to end their skid, I

Atlanta lost in New Orleans last night as 3.5-point underdogs and tonight it will be looking for some revenge against the Bucks. Surprisingly the Hawks are getting just a point less tonight than they got last night despite playing a team that is five games worse and ranked eight spots lower in the NBA power rankings. This is considered excellent line value for a team that will be going for payback following a 17-point home loss against the Bucks in November. Milwaukee is playing for the first time since December 23rd so any momentum it has from its two-game winning streak has been lost. In the first meeting that Milwaukee won, we played on the Bucks and easily cashed and that was based on the revenge angle as well. We cannot forget that Milwaukee took the Hawks to seven games in the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals last season in the and actually held a 3-2 lead before Atlanta ended up blowing the Bucks out in the last two games. The Bucks are banged up heading into this game as they are still without Brandon Jennings while Drew Gooden and Corey Maggette remain questionable. Atlanta meanwhile is back to full strength. Milwaukee is 2-5-2 ATS in its last nine home games while going 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven games within the conference. Also, the Bucks are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as favorites of fewer than four points while Atlanta is a perfect 3-0 ATS as underdogs of fewer than three points this season. 10* (707) Atlanta Hawks

Should Cleveland be favored over any team? In most cases no, but in this case, yes. The Cavaliers are off to a dreadful 8-21 start to the season including losses in 12 of their last 13 games. Even worse, of those 12 losses, nine came by double-digits so this team is obviously not playing very well right now. One of those defeats came in Minnesota as the Timberwolves defeated Cleveland by 34 points. It is the biggest loss for the Cavaliers this season so they will be out for some payback. While it was the biggest loss for Cleveland, that victory was the most lopsided one this season for the Timberwolves which adds even more fuel to the fire for the Cavaliers. Minnesota is not playing well right now as it has dropped seven straight games, six of which were on the road. Speaking of the road, the Timberwolves are 1-17 on the road this season including losses in 12 straight. Minnesota is getting outscored by 13.2 ppg in those 18 road games. Cleveland is 18-6 ATS in its last 24 home games following a road loss and while most of that came with LeBron James in the mix, the Cavaliers are 4-1 ATS in that role this season. They are also 4-1 ATS in their last five home games against teams with a losing road record. Minnesota meanwhile is 3-8-1 ATS in its last 12 games playing with three or more days rest while going 4-12 ATS in its 16 games against the NBA Central. The favorite has covered five straight in this series as well. 10* (504) Cleveland Cavaliers

The Magic would like to forget last season when it comes to the Celtics that

Orlando continues its struggles as it has now lost four straight games and is 1-8 over its last nine games. That is a real struggle and now facing the team with the best record in the NBA seems like a real problem but this team is too talented to keep the skid going. Orlando is favored which is putting the public action on the Spurs side which was bound to happen. The Magic will be playing for revenge as well from an earlier season loss but that is secondary right now as they simply need to win. I stated in the analysis of the Dallas game that three of the new players saw action for Orlando in that Atlanta game and Gilbert Arenas, Hedo Turkoglu and Jason Richardson shot a combined 6-23 (26.1 percent) so the offense was clearly out of sync. I claimed it can

This is a great spot for New Orleans. The Hornets are coming off consecutive road losses on Sunday and Monday and they have now dropped six straight games away from home. The good news is that they are back home where they have won two straight and are 11-3 on the season. Even though it is only New Jersey coming to town, we can expect the hornets to be fully focused here as this is the last game for four days and they want to end their modest losing skid heading into the holiday. New Jersey is coming off a win last night in Memphis which makes it two straight wins and three of four for the Nets. However I do not think they make it three in a row as they have not won three straight games since February of 2009. New Jersey has been very solid this season when playing with no rest but this is the first instance this season where the Nets are playing back-to-back road games and not getting double-digits in the second one. The Nets are off until December 27th and they may be looking ahead to the break. New Orleans will also be looking for some redemption. The Hornets lost by 28 points at New Jersey toward the end of last season which was the first Nets win in this series in the last six games. New Jersey is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven games as a road underdog while the Hornets are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games against teams with a winning road percentage of less than .400 and 39-18 ATS in their last 57 home games after two consecutive non-conference game. New Orleans gets its revenge tonight. 10* (512) New Orleans Hornets

I played against Orlando on a small play and played on Dallas on a premium play last night but am switching both roles tonight and going with the Magic. The Mavericks are coming off a big win in Miami last night, their second over the Heat this season and while they are one of the top teams and hottest teams in the league, that is going to spell a letdown. Dallas is 3-1 ATS this season when playing with no rest but the one loss came in a similar spot with both games being on the road. Orlando lost again last night making it seven losses in its last eight games so things need to start turning around pretty quickly. One of the big reasons for playing against the Magic last night was because of all of the new players in and the old players out. That was the first time the new team played together as they were not even able to practice. With a game under their belt and a return home, things will be better tonight even though the competition is not any easier. Three of the new players saw action for Orlando last night and Gilbert Arenas, Hedo Turkoglu and Jason Richardson shot a combined 6-23 (26.1 percent) so the offense was clearly out of sync. I am not saying one game is going to solve it but we can be assured that the shooting will not be any worse tonight. Also, Orlando was outrebounded 51-38 which also goes back to the rotations and that rebounding disadvantage was a rarity. We will see a turnaround of that tonight also. Dallas has been particularly tough as an underdog this season as it is undefeated against the number in that role which was a major reason for playing it last night but we are going contrarian tonight as the situation is a very difficult one. Orlando is 41-17 ATS in its last 58 games coming off a road loss including a 20-7 ATS mark when coming off a double-digit road loss. The Magic are also 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games when playing at home off a double-digit loss. 10* (702) Orlando Magic

Normally teams that are playing very well and have a big streak going tend to lose line value but that is not the case here. The Sixers have been playing excellent basketball as they have won three straight games and seven of nine since the end of November. More importantly for our purposes, Philadelphia has covered 10 straight games but the rare value is still there despite this run. The Sixers are 7-1 in their last eight home games, the lone blemish being just a one-point loss to the Celtics. The reason for the continued line value on the Sixers is because of who they are playing. The Lakers are road favorites, which has been the case in all 14 of their previous road games this season and they have gone 9-5 straight up and 7-7 against the number which is very average for a team that has been favored in each contest. This is the result of the public perception that the Lakers receive as they are one of the most heavily bets teams every year based on simply who they are and the lines need to be adjusted. Philadelphia is the second most profitable team in the NBA when it comes to the spread as it is 17-7-1 ATS including 10-3 ATS at home. The Lakers are in a difficult spot here as this is their sixth straight road game and their third game in four nights so the travel has been grueling the last 10 days. And even with this, Los Angeles has played the 30th ranked schedule in the NBA which shows it has been a relatively easy start to the season. The Sixers are 0-6 against the NBA

San Antonio remains red hot as it has won six straight games but it is important to note that all of those games were at home. The last time the Spurs hit the road was on the first of the month against the Clippers and we cashed a ticket on Los Angeles as it won outright. That is the only road loss of the season for San Antonio which is no doubt impressive but its lack of recent road play is a big disadvantage here especially knowing that the Spurs return home for three more game directly following this game. The Nuggets still own a very solid home court advantage as they are 11-1 at the Pepsi Center on the season. The only loss came against Dallas in the fourth game of the season and that was by only a single point. Denver was favored in that game and this game marks just the third time this season that is has been a home underdog, resulting in wins in those games outright against the Magic and the Lakers. The Nuggets are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as a home underdog dating back to last season. All of the trade talk surrounding Carmelo Anthony has not been a distraction for the Nuggets. Following a four-game roadtrip, Anthony insisted it was good to be home, even if he has no idea how much longer this may still be home. When asked if he wants to remain in a powder blue uniform, Anthony responded,

This will be a very unpopular play but the contrarian situation calls for a play on the big underdog. The first meeting this season took place in Cleveland and it was one of the most anticipated games of the early season for obvious reasons. Miami was able to easily take care of the Cavaliers in that game and since then, the Heat have been rolling while Cleveland has been sputtering. These are two teams clearly going in opposite directions but the spot signals Cleveland. The Cavaliers have lost eight straight games and only one of those was respectable, a five-point home loss against Chicago. We played Cleveland that game and cashed and there will be a similar effort tonight as the Cavaliers will be looking for some revenge against Miami after that earlier meeting. As far as the line goes, this is easily the biggest number Cleveland has seen this year and it is also the biggest number that Miami has been favored by as well. That signifies line value. Miami has won nine straight games and during this stretch, it has covered eight in a row which includes that win in Cleveland. The Heat were favored by 5.5 points in that game and now they are laying 12 points more in some shops which is too big of an overadjustment based on the switch in venues. With the way the teams have been playing, we are almost certain to see a Miami letdown in this one. There is no chance the Heat will be as energized as they were in the first meeting in Cleveland. The Cavaliers are also part of a solid contrarian situation. Play against favorites of 10 or more points after allowing 85 points or less and that are outscoring opponents by seven or more ppg going up against teams that are getting outscored by a seven or more ppg. This situation is 34-11 ATS (75.6 percent) since 1996. Miami has beaten up on the bad teams but because of the overpriced lines, they have not been covering as they are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games against teams with a winning percentage of less than .400. 10* (509) Cleveland Cavaliers

The Sixers have definitely started to play much better after a horrible start to the season. However, this is not a spot they should be laying points in, no matter the opposition. Philadelphia is just 1-10 on the road this season and only a couple of those games have been close as the Sixers have been outscored by an average of 7.4 ppg in those 11 road games. Making this spot even tougher is the fact that this is only the second road games in the eight games for Philadelphia, a run going back to November 27th. The Nets are certainly not playing very good but that rarely matters in this league as it is about situations and where the true value lies. The Nets have dropped seven straight games but the schedule has been absolutely brutal and going back further as well. New Jersey started the season with four straight home games but since then, 13 of its last 20 games have been on the road and this is the first time since October that the Nets are home for more than one consecutive game. While the majority of their recent games have been on the road, the caliber of teams the Nets have played has made it even more difficult. New Jersey has played the fifth toughest schedule in the NBA and they are tied with five other teams by playing 11 games against teams ranked within the top ten in the league. New Jersey is 0-11 in those games but a much more respectable 6-7 against the rest of the NBA. The Sixers have only played six games against the league top ten yet has just two more total wins. This is a revenge game for New Jersey, which lost by 16 points in Philadelphia earlier in the season, making it five straight losses in the series. The Sixers are on a potent ATS tear but that is what gives us the additional value and it should be noted that Philadelphia is 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as a road favorite and 3-10 ATS in their last 13 road games against teams with a losing home record. New Jersey meanwhile is 5-1 ATS in its last six games as a home underdog and 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings at home. 10*(702) New Jersey Nets

The Heat are rolling right now as they have won eight straight games while covering their last seven games. This is exactly what was supposed to happen to start the season but Miami got off to a slow start and it was due to obvious chemistry issues. It has since solved those issues and with Miami rolling, we are getting excellent value on the other side. The Heat were overpriced early, found some value during the slow start and are once again overpriced. At the start of the month, Miami was favored by 11 points over Detroit, which is 7-18 on the season, the third worst record in the Eastern Conference. Less than two weeks later, the Heat are favored by the same amount over a team that is 14-9, the sixth best record in the Western Conference. New Orleans got off to a very strong start and has since cooled off but it is still a solid team and one that Miami should once again have problems with. New Orleans defeated Miami in the first meeting this season. The Hornets are coming off a blowout loss on Sunday against the resurgent Sixers and that sets them up well here. They had lost three games by double-digits prior to yesterday and gone 2-1 the next time out and they are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a loss by 10 points or more. Yesterday

Orlando is coming off a horrible loss last night which was its third straight defeat after starting the season with only four losses through its first 19 games. I expect a huge effort tonight despite playing with no rest where the Magic are just 1-5 ATS on the season. The caveat to that is that Orlando has won four of its last five games outright with no rest but just has not covered. Three of those games came against inferior opposition where they were favored huge and the other was against Chicago where they were underdogs. Utah is coming off a blowout loss against Miami on Wednesday. I played against the Jazz in that game and I am playing against them again here for pretty similar reasons. The Heat were playing in a revenge situation from an earlier loss and Orlando will be doing the same tonight. Following the win over Miami, the Jazz went to Orlando the very next night and handed the Magic a double-digit loss so Orlando will be out to avenge that defeat tonight. Utah has won eight of its last 10 games with the only blemishes being a game against the Mavericks and the one against Miami last time out. During this recent 10-game run, only two wins have come against teams with winning records so the schedule has been pretty soft during this stretch. Making matters worse is the fact that Utah is banged up with three players questionable including Raja Bell and Andrei Kirilenko who are both likely gametime decisions tonight. After last night

The Sixers got off to a horrendous start this season but they have been turning it on of late as they look to continue to build some much needed confidence. Despite the 7-14 start through 21 games, Philadelphia has actually been one of the better ATS teams this season, one of only three teams in the NBA with a losing record that is in the top ten ATS standings. The home team is 16-5 in the Sixers 21 games this season which is standard for a lot of teams in this league. Boston is off to a 17-4 start which is the best record in the Eastern Conference by two games. The Celtics are coming off a blowout win last night against Denver but the Nuggets were without their player Carmelo Anthony so the victory was a little tarnished. Still, they have won eight straight games including three in a row on the road where they are 7-3 on the season. The public will be all over Boston once again here and that is causing a line that is overinflated. The Celtics are one of the oldest teams in the NBA and the results show that. They are a perfect 6-0 ATS when playing with two or more days of rest but they are just 6-8-1 ATS when playing with no rest or one day of rest. This includes a 2-3 ATS record in the second of a back-to-back set and that includes a 1-2 ATS mark when the second game is on the road. When that is the case and the first game was at home, Boston is 0-1 SU and ATS, losing in Cleveland after defeating Miami at home in the season opener. Philadelphia is 6-0 ATS in its last six games and 5-1 ATS this season against teams with a winning record. Meanwhile Boston is 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 games against teams with a winning percentage below .400 and 0-3-1 ATS in its last four games when its opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. As underdogs of fewer than eight points, the Sixers are 8-3 ATS. 10* (702) Philadelphia 76ers

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This is a great spot for Sacramento. We won a similar bet with the Clippers earlier this week and this one sets up just a good. The Mavericks have won eight straight games, covering seven of those including a big win at Utah last night. They look unstoppable, especially going up against the Kings who come in riding a seven-game losing streak and are 1-12 over their last 13 games. They lost to the Lakers last night as they were in a horrible spot with Los Angeles having lost four straight games heading into that one. Dallas is a perfect 3-0 ATS with no rest but this is the first instance this season with both back-to-back games coming on the road. Sacramento is 1-1 ATS with no rest but this is the first time that it has been at home during the second leg. This is easily the most points they have gotten at home this year and conversely, this is the most points Dallas has given on the road. The Kings fall into a great contrarian situation as well based on the recent runs. Play on underdogs that have failed to cover the spread in 12 or more of their last 15 games going up against an opponent that has covered five or six of their last seven games against the spread. This situation is 41-15 ATS (73.2 percent) since 1996. 10* (512) Sacramento Kings

This is a big game for Chicago. The Bulls will be at full strength for the first time this season if Carlos Boozer makes his highly anticipated debut for the Bulls, which looks to be the case. It could not have come at a better time with Orlando and Dwight Howard coming to town. Chicago is also looking for some retribution. Hard fouls by Howard sent Derrick Rose out of the Bulls' last two meetings with the Magic, which Orlando won by a combined 49 points. It is safe to say the Bulls want to return the favor. This is just the third time the Magic have been tested on the road this season and the first two were failures. They lost at Miami by 26 points and at San Antonio by nine points. The Magic

We cashed a ticket with the Pacers on Sunday as they defeated the Lakers outright to win their opener of this four-game roadtrip. Indiana has Utah up next which put it into a tough spot here of getting focused coming off a huge upset and facing another Western Conference power tomorrow. The Pacers have been red hot at the ticket window, going 5-1 ATS in their last six games and that provides value here. This is just the second time they have been road favorites and the first resulted in a 26-point loss in Philadelphia. The Kings continue to struggle but this is one of the best times to back them as they are a desperate team with a lot of line value on their side. They have dropped four straight games as the offense has been non-existent and while Sacramento has not been a very strong home underdog of late, those games mostly have been against the elite teams in the league. Indiana is not one of those teams. This is the fourth time this season the Kings have been home dogs, with the Lakers, Hornets and Bulls being the other three instances. The recent ATS runs on both sides gives us line value as mentioned and it also puts the Kings in a solid contrarian situation. Play on home underdogs that have failed to cover the spread in eight or more of their last 10 games, going up against an opponent after having covered the spread in five or six of their last seven games against the spread. This situation is 60-26 ATS (69.8 percent) since 1996. With the Lakers and Mavericks on deck Friday and Saturday, this is best opportunity for the Kings to break out. 10* Sacramento Kings

Both teams are coming off Sunday losses and Oklahoma City is in the better spot to rebound from its loss. The Thunder came up a point short in Houston last night and they have been a very solid bounceback team this season as they have won four straight games following a loss. Playing on no rest is also no problem for this young team as Oklahoma City is a perfect 3-0 ATS this season in the second of back-to-back games. This one is even stronger based on the fact this is the first one of the season at home. After a perfect 8-0 start to the season, New Orleans has slipped of late, going just 4-4 over its last eight games straight up and going 1-6-1 ATS in those contests. This includes a 2-3 record on the road and coming off their first home loss of the season, we don

We won against the Lakers on Friday in Utah and we will go against them again here. This is a very unusual and difficult scheduling situation for Los Angeles as it is coming off a one-game roadtrip at Utah two nights ago and then heads back on the road for another roadtrip at Memphis on Tuesday. Playing at home is always a good thing but in this case, the Lakers have little time to enjoy it. They were in a similar spot earlier this season at home against Phoenix sandwiched around two road games and lost to the Suns. The Pacers begin a four-game west coast roadtrip on Sunday following a disappointing overtime loss against Oklahoma City on Friday. Indiana is 7-7 on the season as it has been unable to get any sort of big run going but at the same time, it has not had any big runs going the other way as Indiana has lost consecutive games only once this season. Actually, the Pacers are 4-0 both straight up and against the number this season when coming off a home loss. The Lakers are 9-0 against the bottom half of the NBA but just 4-3 against the top 16 in the league and playing the 28th ranked schedule has certainly helped matters as well. As mentioned, the Pacers have responded well off a home loss and they are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall following a loss. Also they are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games against teams with a home winning percentage greater than .600. The Lakers meanwhile are 9-23 ATS after having won four of their last five games. 10* Indiana Pacers

We played on Miami last night and while it missed the cover by a bucket, it did pick up a much needed win to gain some confidence and momentum heading into this game. The Heat are on a dreadful 1-10 ATS run and while that may be fade material for some, it is a take sign here as that means the value lies with Miami, which is something we never thought would be the case this season. Miami has been an underdog only once this season and that came in Orlando in a big revenge situation. Dallas meanwhile is red hot right now with wins in four straight games including three of those coming on the road. This is no big surprise as the Mavericks have been a better road team than home team the last couple years. Dallas won in San Antonio last night which snapped the Spurs 12-game winning streak and while it is hard to say letdown with Miami up next, last night

We used the Hawks in a similar role a week ago tonight. They were coming off four straight losses and then had a win over Minnesota but it was not a very good victory. Atlanta headed to Indiana and pulled off a double-digit win and tonight, it heads to New Jersey following back-to-back home losses against the Mavericks and Celtics, the latter coming last night by 23 points. The Hawks have struggled against the better teams, going 1-5 against the top 16 but going 7-0 against the bottom half of the NBA. New Jersey returns home following a four-game roadtrip where it went 1-3 including losses in the final three games. The Nets played decent but they are still not quite to the point of winning against the elite teams. New Jersey is 4-3 against teams in its own category, 17th in the league or worse, but 0-6 against teams ranked within the top 16. Atlanta started the season 6-0 and while going 2-6 since, four of the losses came by five points or less and those were all against the top teams as mentioned. Atlanta swept the season series last year and all three games were blowout wins as the Hawks won by 23, 30 and 24 points. Granted the Nets are a better team this season but they are not that much improved the likely make this series closer. Atlanta was favored by seven points in the one meeting in New Jersey and the recent struggles have brought the line down significantly which adds a lot of value to the much stronger team. The Hawks are 5-1 on the road so winning away from home is not an issue. Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in its last five games as a road favorite while the Nets are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games as a home underdog of fewer than five points. Also, the Nets are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 home games coming off a road loss, losing those games by an average of 10 ppg. Atlanta meanwhile is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 road game when failing to cover the spread in four or five of its last six games. After a 1-5 run at home, hitting the road is just what the Hawks need. 10* Atlanta Hawks

I see a lot of value in the under in this matchup. The Hornets are coming off an ugly win at Sacramento last night and while the 146 points scored may not be helping this line, other factors negate that. New Orleans had gone over in four straight games prior to last night as the offense was clicking but that took a back seat last night. The defense is what has made the Hornets as strong as they are right now as they are allowing just 90.4 ppg on 42.5 percent shooting, second and first respectively in the league. The Clippers have gone over in five of their last six games but tonight they will see some defense, something has been hit to miss of late. Los Angeles have gone over 100 points in five of its last nine games but all of those came against teams ranked in the bottom half of the league in points allowed. The other four games where they averaged 88.4 ppg all came against teams in the top third of the league in defense. Basically the Clippers have played what the opposition allows and that will be the case again here. Six of the last seven and eight of the last 10 meetings in this series have gone over which tends to give us value going the other way. These teams played two weeks ago in New Orleans and the game went under 189.5 as 183 points were scored. Now just two weeks later, the posted total has gone up six points which is likely due to the recent results as talked about but this is too much of a jump in my opinion. The recent trade between the Hornets and Raptors will not affect the floe of the game as well. The under is 7-0 in the Hornets last seven games against teams with a winning percentage below .400 and the under is 22-10 in their last 32 games as a favorite between 5.0 and 10.5 points. Meanwhile the under 5-2 in the Clippers last seven games as an underdog between 5.0 and 10.5 points. 10* Under New Orleans Hornets/Los Angeles Clippers

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The linesmakers are saying one of two things here, maybe both. First, the Magic are better than Miami as they are favored by more than what Miami was favored by last night. Second, the 27-point loss by Phoenix needs to taken into consideration as it was a huge one. Well, I think both of these are false and Phoenix is the beneficiary. The public will see nothing but that loss last night against the Heat and fade the Suns again but we need to go the opposite way. We played against Phoenix last night and won in convincing fashion, as it was never in doubt. It was a situational play and that situation reverses tonight. We have to remember the Suns were playing some great basketball prior to last night as they had won five of their previous six including big road wins at Atlanta and Los Angeles. Against the Lakers, Phoenix made 22 three-pointers while last night, it made only five. I think both can be considered aberrations but will see a better effort from long range tonight. Orlando is coming off an easy win in its last game against Memphis as it won going away, leading by as many as 17 points and never trailing. That snapped a two-game home losing streak and it was the first

I think we see Atlanta snap out of its funk tonight. The Hawks had lost four straight games before winning Sunday at home against Minnesota. Yes it was a win but it was very unimpressive as they were outshot by the Timberwolves but were fortunate to get to the free throw line eight more times while converting 11 more attempts than the Timberwolves. With home games coming up against Dallas and Boston next, Atlanta will be focused for the win, especially seeing that the next game is not until Saturday. Indiana put up an incredible performance against the Nuggets a week ago tonight as it shot an unheard of 64.4 percent from the floor including 53.3 percent from long range. Like any big game, the Pacers came back with a dud, shooting 20 percent worse against Houston and then followed that up with a similar effort against the Cavaliers but ended up winning because Cleveland could not make anything. The Hawks are a much better shooting team and that will be the difference here. Atlanta leads the NBA in shooting as it is hitting 49.3 percent from the floor and this has not been a good matchup for the Pacers in the past. The Hawks have won the last six meetings in this series including a three-game sweep last season that saw them win by an average of 11 ppg. They can keep this up by doing a simple thing

The Hawks were absolutely pounded by Milwaukee on Wednesday as we cashed a very easy ticket on that one. The game was actually worse than the final score indicated as Atlanta trailed by 30 points at one point and made it look more respectable by cutting the gap in the fourth quarter during garbage time. That is now the third straight loss for the Hawks which has become a rarity for this team as they lost that many consecutive games only once all of last season. I expect a huge bounceback tonight. While Atlanta has been losing, the Jazz have been winning. They have won three straight games including the last two in Miami and Orlando which are both massive wins. Against the Heat, Utah overcame a 22-point deficit and sent the game into overtime on a last second tip-in and then pulled away in the extra session. The next night in Orlando, Utah overcame an 18-point deficit as it outscored the Magic 39-20 in the fourth quarter to win going away. Even with a day off, they cannot keep this up. There could be good news for the Hawks on the injury front as well as Mo Evans and Marvin Williams both could be back tonight. These are the only two small forwards on the team so putting together a workable rotation has been difficult Phoenix, Orlando and Milwaukee exposed Atlanta

The Lakers are just one of two remaining undefeated teams in the NBA and here is the biggest test of the young season. Los Angeles is 8-0 and are looking like a team on a three-peat mission however one look at the schedule tell us exactly why this team is where it is. The Lakers have played the 29th ranked schedule in the NBA and while winning is winning, winning over six teams with losing records usually isn

The Bucks won an easy game last night over the Knicks and the initial though is to fade Milwaukee tonight in the second of a back-to-back set. However, the back-to-back should not come into play here based on the fact that there was a shortage of minutes played by the starters so rest (and fatigue) will not be an issue. The Bucks started slow by going 1-3 in their first four games and while the fifth game was a loss at Boston, it seemed to shake the team and since then, they have been playing much better. The Hawks are coming off two straight losses and that is another reason the public is all over Atlanta in this game. Both games were four-point losses and they came against solid opposition in Phoenix and Orlando but tonight

The Nets are 2-4 and certainly better than last season, when it was widely acknowledged that their talent level was too good to finish with their woeful 12-70 record. New Jersey started the season with a 2-0 record but has since dropped its last four games but it is not overly surprising. Two of those losses came against Miami while another came against Orlando and a fourth was against Charlotte by just a bucket in a game it should have won. Cleveland is 3-3 and surprisingly, it is tied for first place in the NBA Central. The fact that the division leaders are at .500 shows the weakness of the conference and I don

We knew coming into the season that it was going to be a struggle for the Pistons as they were looking toward rebuilding a team that fell off in a big way last season. However, starting the season 0-5 was not expected but taking a closer look explains why. Detroit lost its opener at New Jersey while blowing a late lead and the next four games came against teams that will most likely be qualifying for the playoffs. The Pistons opposition has an overall record of 16-7 so they definitely have played a tough schedule despite the Bulls and Thunder getting off to slow starts. Meanwhile, the Bobcats are 1-3 to begin the year with the lone win coming at New Jersey two nights ago by a bucket. This is a talented team but one that has yet to show it can play together. On the road, the Bobcats are averaging only 86.3 ppg on 43.1 percent shooting. This is the first of two winnable home games for the Pistons prior to heading out west for a four-game roadtrip so these weekend games are pretty important. The last thing this team needs or wants is to remain winless. As for Charlotte, they head back home tomorrow night to take on Orlando and while a win is needed for the Bobcats as well, a peak ahead to that game is hard not to do. The big story in Detroit is the rift going on between players and head coach John Kuester, He called his locker room out for a lack of leadership and against Atlanta, Rodney Stuckey was benched. While things may go from bad to worse before they get better, this is the time to back this team as right now, pride is on the line. We look for the Pistons to pull together tonight and grab that first victory. Detroit is a perfect 5-0 ATS in its last five games against the NBA Southwest while the Bobcats are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games against the NBA Central. 10* Detroit Pistons

For a team that was supposed to make a possible run at the Lakers in the Western Conference, it certainly has not showed for the Thunder. Granted we are just four games in so there is no reason to panic. Oklahoma City is coming off its second straight blowout loss but that actually sets us up here. It seemed as last night was more of a lookahead or a look past of the Clippers and it obviously hit them where it hurts. Portland had a very successful roadtrip where it went 3-1 to improve to 4-1 on the season and it is making some early noise. We knew this was going to be a solid team and a big roadtrip is important early in the season but those four games were against the Clippers and three teams from the Eastern Conference. Not too take too much away from it, but it was not as challenging as it could have been. Kevin Durant had the worst perimeter shooting night of his young career as he went 0-10 from behind the arc and something tells me he shows up big time tonight.

This game has San Antonio written all over it and the public is certainly buying into it. The Spurs are coming off a home loss against New Orleans on Saturday after winning their opener against Indiana three nights earlier. This marks the first road game of the season for San Antonio and it is being asked to put down a big number which is never an easy task in this league. On top of it, the Spurs travel to Phoenix on Wednesday as they will be playing for revenge following last season

This is the home opener for the Knicks and they are getting a great price here. New York is coming off a loss last night in Boston and while this is the second game of a back-to-back set, it should not affect this team. It is early in the season so fatigue is far from an issue and also this team is young as the Knicks are the fifth youngest team in the league with an average age of just under 25 years old. There are a lot of new players on New York, including two rookies in the starting five, but I am not concerned in this spot. Portland is 2-0 on the season with a revenge win in its opener as well as a win against the Clippers the next night. The Blazers have had a lot of time to rest and that can actually be a problem here as momentum is hurt for than rest is needed. Even though they are winning, the Blazers have not been playing complete as they have outscored their first two opponents by 31 points in the fourth quarter but have been outscored overall in the first three quarters. A complete game from New York means an outright win. Portland has not started 3-0 since 1999-2000 and while this team is different than ones in years past, it is not an ideal spot. Is the wrong team favored here? It is a definite possibility. 10* New York Knicks

Toronto

It is just the third day of the NBA season but we have yet to see a line this big. Not even close. We are well aware of how good Orlando is and how many problems the Wizards had last season but Washington should be a much improved team this season. It may not show up in a playoff appearance but you will see a different team that focuses on fundamental basketball, hard work and playing together as a team. This line is based on last year

This is a good spot now but if it took place a few months down the road, depending on health and players leaving, it may not be nearly as good. However, because of what we have now, we will run with it. Denver is a tricky team to predict because we simply do not know how long the current pieces will be in place, namely Carmelo Anthony. Chances are he will be traded by February or March which could mean a strong start but a weak finish but that is not our concern here. The Nuggets will be looking to win early and often and they start right off with a game against a team that knocked them out of the playoffs a season ago. Utah took out Denver four games to two in the first round of the playoffs before it was knocked out in the second round by the eventual NBA Champion Lakers. The Nuggets did win two of the three home meetings in the series and during the season overall, they won four of the five meetings with the wins coming by an average of 10.8 ppg and all being by seven or more. The Jazz should be in decent shape this season despite losing Carlos Boozer as they got Al Jefferson as a replacement and in the long haul, it should be an upgrade. They are not at full strength however as Mehmet Okur will be out for a couple more months because of an Achilles injury while a starter currently falling into the questionable-health category is Raja Bell, who is recovering from bursitis of the left rotator cuff. He will play but is not at 100 percent. Anthony will once again play a big part against Utah as he did last season. Anthony averaged a career-playoff high 30.7 ppg while grabbing 8.7 rpg and shooting 46.4 percent from the field. He simply matches up well against the Jazz and even he is glad for the chance to play the Jazz. He said early in the week that he is excited about opening against division rival Utah.

This is one of the best scenarios to go against on opening night. It is banner night in Los Angeles and we know what that means. The Lakers will be lowering their 2009-10 NBA Championship banner along with getting their rings on Tuesday on opening night and playing a basketball game is not at the forefront for the players right now. This is a huge night and with that comes a lot of distractions. Added to that, the reigning champions are a huge public play and with that come an overinflated line. The Lakers enter the season banged up as well. Kobe Bryant, who had offseason surgery on his right knee, said he was "comfortable" playing 30 minutes and head coach Phil Jackson doesn't anticipate playing him much more than that. Jackson said he is eyeing a comeback for Andrew Bynum around Thanksgiving while Luke Walton aggravated his strained right hamstring Friday and is doubtful. Walton's absence could mean more time for second-round draft pick Devin Ebanks. As for the Rockets, last season was a nightmare but they figure to be significantly improved from last season

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As good as this series has been in my opinion, we have yet to see a game decided by fewer than six points through the first five games which is very surprising. This is even more surprising considering both of the regular season meetings were decided by a single point. I do not play the due theory but we are overdue for a classic finish and that definitely favors the underdog. That is far from the reason for this pick however as the basis is all about the value involved because of what the public is going to be doing here. The Lakers are down a game and have their backs against the wall and because of that, this is a

We have cashed all four games in the Finals thus far as we have gone the alternating route or the bounceback option as the Lakers and Celtics have alternated wins through the first four games. I am going to buck this trend on Sunday as the Celtics, who played solid in desperation time, will have to once again dig deep to avoid going down a game and needing to win the final two games in Los Angeles to win the championship. The best part about the Game Four win was that it was the Celtics bench that was the difference as the Boston starting five played well below average. That means it is rebound time for those starters as they knew they were bailed out. As was the case for Game Three, the Game Four plan is to have at least two of the three

As we have seen so far in this NBA Finals, it has been a series of bounce backs through the first three games. Boston was able to gain home court after a split in Los Angeles and then the Lakers reclaimed it by winning in Boston on Tuesday. I see the same trend continuing on Thursday as the desperation will be there for the Celtics to avoid going into a 3-1 hole. In Game Three Boston jumped ahead early but the Lakers made a big run and never gave the lead back even though it was dicey for a while. Boston clawed back into the game and if not for some clutch shots down the stretch, the Celtics could have pulled off the late comeback but Los Angeles was able to pull away. Taking a look at the boxscore and the game was relatively even with the only real Lakers advantages being at the free throw line and rebounding. Those are obviously two huge aspects of the game but they only have slight advantages and were not dominant. One huge mystery for Boston was Ray Allen. He was coming off a masterful performance in Game Two, a game in which the Celtics probably would not have won if it weren

It is now time for the Lakers to return the favor in Boston for Game Three. The Celtics evened the series at a game apiece and grabbed home court in the process with the next three games being played on their homecourt to add to it. I was on Boston in Game Two and was not surprised with an outright win following the lethargic effort it put forth in Game One. The Celtics had two big edges on Sunday and those were unheard of three-point shooting as well as foul trouble on the other side. Ray Allen could not be stopped from long range as he went 8-11 behind the arc while as a team the Celtics shot 68.8 percent from three-point land. We won