The Lakers are just one of two remaining undefeated teams in the NBA and here is the biggest test of the young season. Los Angeles is 8-0 and are looking like a team on a three-peat mission however one look at the schedule tell us exactly why this team is where it is. The Lakers have played the 29th ranked schedule in the NBA and while winning is winning, winning over six teams with losing records usually isn

The Bucks won an easy game last night over the Knicks and the initial though is to fade Milwaukee tonight in the second of a back-to-back set. However, the back-to-back should not come into play here based on the fact that there was a shortage of minutes played by the starters so rest (and fatigue) will not be an issue. The Bucks started slow by going 1-3 in their first four games and while the fifth game was a loss at Boston, it seemed to shake the team and since then, they have been playing much better. The Hawks are coming off two straight losses and that is another reason the public is all over Atlanta in this game. Both games were four-point losses and they came against solid opposition in Phoenix and Orlando but tonight

The Nets are 2-4 and certainly better than last season, when it was widely acknowledged that their talent level was too good to finish with their woeful 12-70 record. New Jersey started the season with a 2-0 record but has since dropped its last four games but it is not overly surprising. Two of those losses came against Miami while another came against Orlando and a fourth was against Charlotte by just a bucket in a game it should have won. Cleveland is 3-3 and surprisingly, it is tied for first place in the NBA Central. The fact that the division leaders are at .500 shows the weakness of the conference and I don

We knew coming into the season that it was going to be a struggle for the Pistons as they were looking toward rebuilding a team that fell off in a big way last season. However, starting the season 0-5 was not expected but taking a closer look explains why. Detroit lost its opener at New Jersey while blowing a late lead and the next four games came against teams that will most likely be qualifying for the playoffs. The Pistons opposition has an overall record of 16-7 so they definitely have played a tough schedule despite the Bulls and Thunder getting off to slow starts. Meanwhile, the Bobcats are 1-3 to begin the year with the lone win coming at New Jersey two nights ago by a bucket. This is a talented team but one that has yet to show it can play together. On the road, the Bobcats are averaging only 86.3 ppg on 43.1 percent shooting. This is the first of two winnable home games for the Pistons prior to heading out west for a four-game roadtrip so these weekend games are pretty important. The last thing this team needs or wants is to remain winless. As for Charlotte, they head back home tomorrow night to take on Orlando and while a win is needed for the Bobcats as well, a peak ahead to that game is hard not to do. The big story in Detroit is the rift going on between players and head coach John Kuester, He called his locker room out for a lack of leadership and against Atlanta, Rodney Stuckey was benched. While things may go from bad to worse before they get better, this is the time to back this team as right now, pride is on the line. We look for the Pistons to pull together tonight and grab that first victory. Detroit is a perfect 5-0 ATS in its last five games against the NBA Southwest while the Bobcats are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games against the NBA Central. 10* Detroit Pistons

For a team that was supposed to make a possible run at the Lakers in the Western Conference, it certainly has not showed for the Thunder. Granted we are just four games in so there is no reason to panic. Oklahoma City is coming off its second straight blowout loss but that actually sets us up here. It seemed as last night was more of a lookahead or a look past of the Clippers and it obviously hit them where it hurts. Portland had a very successful roadtrip where it went 3-1 to improve to 4-1 on the season and it is making some early noise. We knew this was going to be a solid team and a big roadtrip is important early in the season but those four games were against the Clippers and three teams from the Eastern Conference. Not too take too much away from it, but it was not as challenging as it could have been. Kevin Durant had the worst perimeter shooting night of his young career as he went 0-10 from behind the arc and something tells me he shows up big time tonight.

This game has San Antonio written all over it and the public is certainly buying into it. The Spurs are coming off a home loss against New Orleans on Saturday after winning their opener against Indiana three nights earlier. This marks the first road game of the season for San Antonio and it is being asked to put down a big number which is never an easy task in this league. On top of it, the Spurs travel to Phoenix on Wednesday as they will be playing for revenge following last season

This is the home opener for the Knicks and they are getting a great price here. New York is coming off a loss last night in Boston and while this is the second game of a back-to-back set, it should not affect this team. It is early in the season so fatigue is far from an issue and also this team is young as the Knicks are the fifth youngest team in the league with an average age of just under 25 years old. There are a lot of new players on New York, including two rookies in the starting five, but I am not concerned in this spot. Portland is 2-0 on the season with a revenge win in its opener as well as a win against the Clippers the next night. The Blazers have had a lot of time to rest and that can actually be a problem here as momentum is hurt for than rest is needed. Even though they are winning, the Blazers have not been playing complete as they have outscored their first two opponents by 31 points in the fourth quarter but have been outscored overall in the first three quarters. A complete game from New York means an outright win. Portland has not started 3-0 since 1999-2000 and while this team is different than ones in years past, it is not an ideal spot. Is the wrong team favored here? It is a definite possibility. 10* New York Knicks

Toronto

It is just the third day of the NBA season but we have yet to see a line this big. Not even close. We are well aware of how good Orlando is and how many problems the Wizards had last season but Washington should be a much improved team this season. It may not show up in a playoff appearance but you will see a different team that focuses on fundamental basketball, hard work and playing together as a team. This line is based on last year

This is a good spot now but if it took place a few months down the road, depending on health and players leaving, it may not be nearly as good. However, because of what we have now, we will run with it. Denver is a tricky team to predict because we simply do not know how long the current pieces will be in place, namely Carmelo Anthony. Chances are he will be traded by February or March which could mean a strong start but a weak finish but that is not our concern here. The Nuggets will be looking to win early and often and they start right off with a game against a team that knocked them out of the playoffs a season ago. Utah took out Denver four games to two in the first round of the playoffs before it was knocked out in the second round by the eventual NBA Champion Lakers. The Nuggets did win two of the three home meetings in the series and during the season overall, they won four of the five meetings with the wins coming by an average of 10.8 ppg and all being by seven or more. The Jazz should be in decent shape this season despite losing Carlos Boozer as they got Al Jefferson as a replacement and in the long haul, it should be an upgrade. They are not at full strength however as Mehmet Okur will be out for a couple more months because of an Achilles injury while a starter currently falling into the questionable-health category is Raja Bell, who is recovering from bursitis of the left rotator cuff. He will play but is not at 100 percent. Anthony will once again play a big part against Utah as he did last season. Anthony averaged a career-playoff high 30.7 ppg while grabbing 8.7 rpg and shooting 46.4 percent from the field. He simply matches up well against the Jazz and even he is glad for the chance to play the Jazz. He said early in the week that he is excited about opening against division rival Utah.

This is one of the best scenarios to go against on opening night. It is banner night in Los Angeles and we know what that means. The Lakers will be lowering their 2009-10 NBA Championship banner along with getting their rings on Tuesday on opening night and playing a basketball game is not at the forefront for the players right now. This is a huge night and with that comes a lot of distractions. Added to that, the reigning champions are a huge public play and with that come an overinflated line. The Lakers enter the season banged up as well. Kobe Bryant, who had offseason surgery on his right knee, said he was "comfortable" playing 30 minutes and head coach Phil Jackson doesn't anticipate playing him much more than that. Jackson said he is eyeing a comeback for Andrew Bynum around Thanksgiving while Luke Walton aggravated his strained right hamstring Friday and is doubtful. Walton's absence could mean more time for second-round draft pick Devin Ebanks. As for the Rockets, last season was a nightmare but they figure to be significantly improved from last season

I

As good as this series has been in my opinion, we have yet to see a game decided by fewer than six points through the first five games which is very surprising. This is even more surprising considering both of the regular season meetings were decided by a single point. I do not play the due theory but we are overdue for a classic finish and that definitely favors the underdog. That is far from the reason for this pick however as the basis is all about the value involved because of what the public is going to be doing here. The Lakers are down a game and have their backs against the wall and because of that, this is a

We have cashed all four games in the Finals thus far as we have gone the alternating route or the bounceback option as the Lakers and Celtics have alternated wins through the first four games. I am going to buck this trend on Sunday as the Celtics, who played solid in desperation time, will have to once again dig deep to avoid going down a game and needing to win the final two games in Los Angeles to win the championship. The best part about the Game Four win was that it was the Celtics bench that was the difference as the Boston starting five played well below average. That means it is rebound time for those starters as they knew they were bailed out. As was the case for Game Three, the Game Four plan is to have at least two of the three

As we have seen so far in this NBA Finals, it has been a series of bounce backs through the first three games. Boston was able to gain home court after a split in Los Angeles and then the Lakers reclaimed it by winning in Boston on Tuesday. I see the same trend continuing on Thursday as the desperation will be there for the Celtics to avoid going into a 3-1 hole. In Game Three Boston jumped ahead early but the Lakers made a big run and never gave the lead back even though it was dicey for a while. Boston clawed back into the game and if not for some clutch shots down the stretch, the Celtics could have pulled off the late comeback but Los Angeles was able to pull away. Taking a look at the boxscore and the game was relatively even with the only real Lakers advantages being at the free throw line and rebounding. Those are obviously two huge aspects of the game but they only have slight advantages and were not dominant. One huge mystery for Boston was Ray Allen. He was coming off a masterful performance in Game Two, a game in which the Celtics probably would not have won if it weren

It is now time for the Lakers to return the favor in Boston for Game Three. The Celtics evened the series at a game apiece and grabbed home court in the process with the next three games being played on their homecourt to add to it. I was on Boston in Game Two and was not surprised with an outright win following the lethargic effort it put forth in Game One. The Celtics had two big edges on Sunday and those were unheard of three-point shooting as well as foul trouble on the other side. Ray Allen could not be stopped from long range as he went 8-11 behind the arc while as a team the Celtics shot 68.8 percent from three-point land. We won

Based on the bounce, the zig-zag or whatever you want to call it, I expected this line to be lower than what we had on Thursday. Reason being is that the tendency is for bettors to go the other way and back the losing team of Game One and thus, the linesmakers have adjusted over the last few years because of this. With this game not until Sunday, the number may still go down but there is a lot of value out there in my opinion. We cashed on the Lakers in that opener and a lot of the thinking behind it was simple motivation. That was based on the 2008 Finals and how it ended when the Celtics won the final game by 39 points and then the team bus was practically vandalized. Now the motivation goes the other way and despite still being on the road, Boston will keep this one a lot closer. The Celtics seemed very out of sorts in Game One as the emotion seemed to be lacking but you can guarantee that it will pick up on Sunday. It is pretty public knowledge at this point that Phil Jackson is 47-0 in series when he wins the first game. Boston is well aware as it was brought up by many reporters after the game during interviews but that is not affecting how the players are taking the rest of the series. It is just adding fuel to the fire and the Celtics have some historical advantages as well. Boston is 4-2 in playoff series that opened with a loss and, more to the point, 3-1 against the Lakers in the NBA Finals after an opening game loss. And that Jackson 47-0 record does not include any series against the Celtics. The other good thing about Boston staying in Los Angeles is the bulletin board material it will read about for the two days leading up to the game. Going through the LA papers and you will see numerous quotes and stories about how Boston was soft, looked old and played with no effort. Boston is 9-1 ATS coming off a double-digit road loss the last two years and coming off a bad defensive effort where it allowed 100 or more points, Boston is 5-0 ATS the last five following up games. Don

The first game of this series is a big one for both sides for obvious reasons especially with the way the series is formatted. With it being a 2-3-2 series, the dynamics are different but the home court advantage team still has the edge, winning 19 of the 26 series since the 2-3-2 format came into play in 1985. Los Angeles has the experience of knowing how important Game One is the last two years. They have been in this position the last two years as they were at home last season and won against the Magic in the opener by 25 points and went on to win the series. They had to start on the road in the NBA Finals against Boston two years ago, lost by 10 points and lost the series. Los Angeles is 8-0 at home in the playoffs, going 5-3 ATS and while Boston has played exceptional on the road, the Lakers have a big intangible in their corner and that is revenge. Even though it was two years ago and four regular season games have been played since, the Lakers have not forgotten the last game in the Finals between the two when the Celtics won the championship by taking the final game by 39 points. That is still going to be in the minds of the players and that will play a big part in the focus of the team. The Lakers also feel they are better prepared this time around as opposed to the 2008 NBA Finals. While the Lakers were beaten pretty badly in the 2008 Finals, they can draw some positives from it. Los Angeles did not know what was coming at them two years ago but that won

This has come down to be a must win situation for Phoenix as another loss and it is done for the season. I am not a huge proponent of these must win scenarios simply because the linesmakers adjust for them and also because the opposing team isn

Can the city of Boston be in for another playoff meltdown? After the Bruins blew a 3-0 series lead, the Celtics are halfway home to doing the same thing which would make them the first NBA ever to give up such a series lead. It is still far from a done deal but the Celtics, which looked so dominant the first three games of this series, are in some serious jeopardy right now in this pressure filled game. Yes, it is a must win game for Orlando but the Magic are not feeling the pressure and playing loose has proven to be the correct ingredient. I mentioned in the Game Five analysis that the Magic have history on their side and they are using that to their advantage. Orlando is in a nearly identical situation from a year ago and that is trailing three games to two against the Celtics. Obviously Orlando was able to capitalize and win the series and it has that positive history on its side to look back on and show that it is far from out of it. The other advantage that Orlando has is momentum. We have seen it throughout the playoffs and as recently as last night with the Suns. The best thing right now for Orlando is the one day gap in-between games as it can keep that momentum rolling. Boston comes into this game severely banged up and while none of the star players are hurt, the role players have taken a hit. Down low, Glen Davis and Rasheed Wallace were hit with a concussion and back injury while guard Marquis Daniels also suffered a concussion. This is a huge concern for the depth of Boston especially down low and it was fortunate, although it was the right call, that the second technical foul issued to Kendrick Perkins in Game Five was rescinded and he is able to play. Orlando has won three of the four meetings played in Boston this season so winning there is far from a problem and it has proven that this spot has been one of the best as it is 11-3 ATS in road games following a double-digit home win. The road team and the underdog are both 8-2 ATS in the last 10 games in this series and we see that continue tonight. 10* Orlando Magic

Based on the fact that the home team has won and covered the first four games of this series, it comes as no surprise that the public is going to be all over the Lakers tonight. Don

We saw some new life out of Orlando on Monday as it was able to steal a game in Boston and extend the series at least one more game. Momentum plays a big role in this league and the situation tonight calls for that momentum to stick around on the Magic sidelines. We saw it last night with Phoenix as a huge win Sunday was capitalized into another huge win on its home floor on Tuesday and momentum played a big role in that. Only one day of rest in-between helped and Orlando is facing that here which is a bonus in my opinion. Many thought this series was over after three games but I thought we would see the real Magic team show up for Game Four and they did. I do expect Orlando to digress now as a win here sends the series back to Boston and puts it in a nearly identical situation from a year ago and that is trailing three games to two against the Celtics. Obviously Orlando was able to capitalize and win the series and it has that positive history on its side to look back on and show that it is far from out of it. As far as line value, we have that on our side as well as the first two games saw the Magic laying -6.5 and -7 at home and now they are laying a bucket less. This is another indication of the linesmakers believing it is over as well as the public thinking it is over as even with the smaller line, a huge majority of the public action is on the Celtics tonight. I mentioned in the Game Four analysis that playing for pride is a big thing in this league and no team, especially one with such high expectations, wants to get swept so if there was a game Orlando wants to show up in, this was the one. The pride continues as the Magic do not want to lose this series in front of their home fans where they are 38-9 on the season. Orlando is 13-0 ATS after a win by six points or less this season and it is 6-0 in its last six games as a favorite of fewer than five points. Both of those angles give Orlando incredible value here simply based on the fact that this is the lowest line it has seen at home since March 7th against the Lakers. 10* Orlando Magic

We get value on the home team in Game Four because of the line adjustment made due to compensate for zig zag backers that play the losing team of the last game this time around. The theory makes sense in a lot of way especially seeing how the losing team may be the more desperate team in need of a win but in this case, it still falls to Phoenix. The Suns, even though they are down just 2-1, can tie the series with a win but are still at the disadvantage as they go back to Los Angeles without a home court edge. The one day off in-between is very important here in my opinion. The Lakers had only one day off between their first two wins and then three days off killed their momentum. The momentum has shifted and the Suns can ride that into Tuesday without extra days taking that away. We saw on Sunday night what Phoenix is capable of and anyone that had written this team off after the first two games was sadly mistaken. The Suns were one of the hottest teams entering the postseason and after easily taking out the Blazers and Spurs, the latter in a sweep, this team was expected to give the Lakers fits. They no doubt still can in my opinion. If Amare Stoudamire plays the way he did in Game Four like he did last game and not the first two, the Lakers are going to have their hands full again despite having thought to have the edge inside. The play of Robin Lopez, Steve Nash and the zone defense all played big parts but it came down to Stoudamire and if his heart and focus is there, he really won

Game Three was the must win game for Orlando and it did not even come close to competing. Because of that, the linesmakers have made a huge adjustment knowing that the public is going to be on Boston Monday to sweep the series. No NBA team has ever come back from a 3-0 deficit in a playoff series and there certainly is not a lot of confidence in Orlando to buck that history trend. The Magic must capture Game Four on Monday night to avoid being swept, a depressing prospect for a team that ran off 59 regular-season wins and won its first eight games of the postseason. Do I think Orlando can come back and win this series? Probably not. I say probably only because a win here gets them back home where they could come within two games and who knows. I do think if any team is capable of doing it, it is Orlando as it has the makeup of a team that can make a run. Last season, the Magic made it to the NBA Finals so they have the experience and they also have the experience of a comeback as they trailed Boston 3-2 last year and came back to win the series. The Celtics were without Kevin Garnett so they were a different team but that series lost is still in their heads and that could be a mental downfall come later on. For now, we are concerned about this game only and if Orlando shows up, which it has not done so far, it can extend this series. Playing for pride is a big thing in this league and no team, especially one with such high expectations, wants to get swept so if there is a game Orlando wants to show up in, this is the one. The first two losses in this series were close ones and the blowout loss last time out even adds more motivation to the table. Orlando is 17-4 ATS coming off a road loss by 10 points or more over the last three seasons and it is 14-4 ATS revenging a loss of 10 points or more over the last two seasons. Boston meanwhile is 9-21-1 ATS in its last 31 games following a win by 10 points or more. This is a much bigger line and the Celtics are just 3-11 ATS in their last 14 playoff games as a favorite between 5.0 and 10.5 points. 10* Orlando Magic

Today

The road team has dominated this series all season including both playoff games obviously but the home team will change that tonight. The Celtics have a chance to put Orlando into an insurmountable hole while the Magic are in a must win situation so it needs to be figured out which team wants it more. At this point, I firmly believe it is Boston who is the more motivated team. Orlando is saying all of the right things about how winning in Boston is not impossible, especially considering it did it twice during the regular season, but the Magic have to be hurting right now knowing they just dropped two games at home and history is not on their side. The Celtics have never blown a 2-0 lead in a best-of-seven series while the Magic have never come back after losing the first two games. Coming into the playoffs, it seemed as though Orlando was peaking at the right time and even more so after sweeping the first two series

The lines are usually adjusted in the playoffs to actually give more value to the team that won and that is to thwart the players who still go after the losing team based on the zig-zag theory. I use this term a lot because it used to be a sound system in the NBA Playoffs and we have to look at ways to go about using this to out advantage even though it no longer is a successful system, But that does not mean we can try and figure out what the linesmakers are thinking the public is going to be on. This theory basically used to say to bet the loser of the previous game in the next game but linesmakers have caught up to this rationale in recent years as you will see that the line in the second game is usually lower even if the home team won that previous game in the series. However in the case of the Suns, the line is actually higher for them which is very rare. Take note that the first game of the first two series for the Lakers was won by Los Angeles and the Game Two line came in a point and a half lower. Now we are seeing the line going the other direction and a lto of that is based on the pure dominance that the Lakers showed. So now we get line value and the fact that we get to play against a team that looked like a champion in Game One. The Lakers shot an incredible 58 percent from the floor and I can guarantee that isn

We cashed a ticket in Game One of this series with the Celtics on Sunday and conventional thinking is to back the Celtics again considering the line is even higher this time around. Normally the zig-zag benefits the road team in Game Two since it usually loses and in this case the higher line lessens the value of Orlando according to the public but in my opinion, the value is more on the side of the Magic. The line is higher and that is putting the money on Boston but let

Both Phoenix and Los Angeles are coming off sweeps in the last round so both have had a lot of rest heading into the Western Conference Finals so while trying to find an edge in that regard is pretty much a non-factor. However, the long layoff may have been more beneficial to the Lakers to get their numerous bumps and bruises time to rest and heal. The Lakers went from struggling against Oklahoma City in the Conference Quarters to completely dominating the Jazz in the Conference Semis and that momentum is just what they need in facing the Suns. They were able to take three of the four meetings this season against Phoenix but three of those took place before the New Year so the history there is tough to go by. What we can look at is past playoff history and that provides the Lakers with a big motivational edge and even more so in Game One to be able to get out to a good start. The Suns knocked off Kobe Bryant and the Lakers in the first round in 2006 in seven games. The next year, the Suns dismissed the Lakers in five games. Afterward, Bryant demanded the Lakers make moves to upgrade their roster.

The Celtics find themselves in a tough situation here for Sunday and I think that is getting a lot of the public on the home team. I do not think this situation is bad at all. They are coming off a big series win against the Cavaliers but they have had time to rest, with three days in-between, so any sort of emotional letdown is not in effect. On the other side, Orlando has yet to lose a playoff game, going a perfect 8-0 thus far, and it is clearly the hottest team in the league right now. While that may seem like a good option to back, it provides value no the other side. Orlando has had a lot of time off, six days to be exact, and while it helped the Magic against the Hawks, it is not a big thing here. They have big mismatches all over the floor against Atlanta but they do not get those same advantages against the Celtics. Orlando won three of four games against Boston this season, but hasn't seen the Celtics since their last meeting on February 7th. The Celtics are clearly a different team, being much healthier at the top of the list, and also different from the team that lost to the Magic in seven games in the Eastern Conference Semifinals a season ago. The last meeting in Orlando had the Magic favored by 3.5 points and now the line has gone up significantly. Boston is 12-4-1 ATS in its last 17 playoff games as an underdog while the road team and the underdog has covered five straight in this series. 10* Boston Celtics

History is definitely on the side of the Celtics in this series. Of the 154 NBA playoff series that sat at 3-2, over 83 percent of those teams with the series lead have gone on to win the series. Of those 154, Boston has been in on the right side of the 3-2 lead 32 times and is a near perfect 31-1 in taking home the series. There is a slight history problem however as that one loss came last season. The Celtics were in a similar situation as they were up 3-2 against Orlando and they had the luxury of knowing a potential Game Seven would be at home. They lost Game Six in Orlando and then were walloped in Game Seven by 19 points. That shows that the better teams can actually come back and that alone is going to give Cleveland a little extra incentive. Watching Game Five raised a lot of questions. The biggest obviously surrounded LeBron James in that in one of the biggest games of the season, he put up arguably one of his smallest efforts. I expected him to bounce back from his mediocre Game Four effort but he went the other way. What can we expect in Game Six? Arguments are being made both ways but I see a similar effort like we saw in Game Three where he scored 38 points and basically won the game in the first quarter. Cleveland has lost back-to-back games by double-digits for the first time since 2007 so this is definitely a rare occurrence. If pride doesn

After last night

Utah lost Game Three and it is now in a hole that no other team has been able to overcome as teams are 0-89 in their NBA Playoffs

There was absolutely no value on San Antonio in Game Three as it was favored by seven points which I think was unheard of considering it was the seventh seed playing the third seed. The reason the Suns were not a play was simply because the desperation factor of San Antonio was unknown and if strong enough, it would have negated any sort of line value that it was against. Obviously that desperation was not strong enough as the Spurs were humbled at home to drop to 0-3 in the series and now it is really desperation time. Basically, the Spurs can toss in the towel along with the Hawks and Jazz as no team has ever come back from a 3-0 series deficit in the NBA and I doubt that is going to change this season. That doesn

This game sets up very similar to the Suns/Spurs game last night although I think this time around the results will be different. There was absolutely no value last night in San Antonio as the seventh seed was a huge favorite over the third seed but tonight we get more value in the fifth seed over the first seed as this line is more in line where it should be. Because of the must-win tag that has been put on Utah, the line is probably a point more than it should be based on the first two lines in this series coupled with the venue change. In my opinion however there is still a lot of value on the Jazz. They went 32-9 at home this season, winning 11 more games than they did on the road. The home/road disparity was even more pronounced by only five other teams in the NBA. The Jazz additionally can take comfort in being back home, having won all three games in Utah against Denver in the first round and going back to a February 22 loss to Atlanta, the Jazz have won 13 of their last 14 games at EnergySolutions Arena. Getting the Jazz even more charged up is the fact that there has been plenty of bulletin board material thrown out there that Utah does not have a chance in this series at all. Granted only 14 of 223 teams in league history have come back to win a seven-game series after losing the first two games but we are more concerned about just this game. One writer at the Los Angeles Times wondered if the Lakers really need to go through the formality of winning four games to advance.

Momentum is very big in this league and right now the Celtics have it in this series as they are coming off a win in Cleveland that tied the series at 1-1 and gave Boston home court advantage. However, while that win was big, the Celtics were hurt the most with the extended time off between Game Two and Game Three as any momentum gained may have been taken away with the days of rest. You would think an aging team like the Celtics would cherish this extended time but they are just 3-6 ATS this season when playing with three or more days of rest and this followed a 1-3 ATS mark last season. Playing every other day is what Boston needed to keep the Cavaliers back on their heels but now that Cleveland has had three off days to vent, it will be ready Friday night. The rest was beneficial to both sides for LeBron James and Kevin Garnett to heal up but the latter is questionable going into Friday and his absence would be a big blow following his identical 18-point, 10-rebound performances in the first two games. The season series is now split at three games apiece so it will be argued by some that Boston has Cleveland

Call me crazy to back the Hawks again after getting absolutely annihilated on Tuesday but I am going that way again. Atlanta looked good for the first 14 minutes against Orlando and then the bottom fell out. The Hawks suffered their worst ever playoff loss and one of he worst ones in recent years but I see a big bounceback here. The line remains the same which is very rare for a Game Two in the playoffs as the line tends to come back down following a loss to counter the bettors who go after the losing team after that defeat. This time however it has not changed and while the line easily could have gone the other way based on the 43-point margin, I feel there is still value with the Hawks. Atlanta was in a very similar situation a season ago as it is now. After losing their first game in Miami in the Conference Quarters by 31 points, the Hawks came back in Game Four and won in Miami by 10 points two nights later. Orlando is definitely aware of this however but I can

We won with the Suns in Game One and we come back with Phoenix again tonight as the zig zag theory, once a very popular betting proposition in the NBA playoffs, has given us value in the home team. This theory basically used to say to bet the loser of the previous game in the next game but linesmakers have caught up to this rationale in recent years as you will see that the line in the second game is usually lower even if the home team won that previous game in the series. We tend to see roughly a point to a point and a half line dip to the next game, which is the case here but when a line drops from say -8 to -6.5, that is one thing, but when it drops from -4 to -2.5, that is totally different. The lower that the line started and finished, the greater the percentage becomes in value for the home team. In this case it is a 37.5 percent drop for the Suns. In addition, it puts the line under a possession which is always a big key number in hoops. The Game One win was a big one for Phoenix as it put it a step closer to getting the San Antonio money off its back as the Spurs have ousted the Suns the last four times they have met in the postseason, the last coming in the first round in 2008. Phoenix feels it is better equipped this season to turn it around. The difference from the last go around in 2008 is that Phoenix now has the home court advantage and that is obviously a big factor in the playoffs. Losing Game Two means San Antonio has home court advantage and takes all of the wind out of the Suns sails making Game One almost meaningless. With the 111 points scored Monday, Phoenix is now 48-8 (42-14 ATS) including 4-0 ATS against the Spurs, when scoring 106 or more points. San Antonio is now 11-24 ATS in its last 35 games revenging a road loss while Phoenix improved to 15-4 ATS in its 19 games against Southwest Division opponents this season. 10* Phoenix Suns

We lost a tough one with the Lakers Sunday as a late foul and two free throws from Utah cost us at least a push. We come back with Los Angeles again tonight as the zig zag theory, once a very popular betting proposition in the NBA playoffs, has given us value in the home team. This theory basically used to say to bet the loser of the previous game in the next game but linesmakers have caught up to this rationale in recent years as you will see that the line in the second game is usually lower even if the home team won that previous game in the series. Granted, it did not pan out well for Cavalier backers last night but I believe this situation is a lot different based on the dominance of the Lakers in this series at home. They have won 15 straight meetings while going 11-4 ATS in those games. Only three of those 15 wins were by single-digits with the average margin of victory being 12.7 ppg. The Jazz showed their struggles in Denver in the first round despite winning one of the three games played there and going back a ways, they have struggled in this spot going 5-16-1 ATS in their last 22 games as road underdogs between 5.0 and 10.5 points. Kobe Bryant has scored 31 and 32 points the last two games after coming off efforts of 12 and 13 points and Bryant says he is encouraged with the way he feels and that has spiked his confidence. And that means bad news for the Jazz. I also expect the Lakers second unit to do a better job tonight after it gave up the lead in the fourth quarter on Sunday. They were called out afterward by teammates and head coach Phil Jackson who said he was very disappointed in the effort. The Lakers also fall into a great situation as well. Play against underdogs that are coming off a cover as an underdog but lost straight up, in a game involving two teams with winning percentages between .600 and .750. This situation is 44-12 ATS (78.6 percent) since 1996. 9* Los Angeles Lakers

This game not only offers exceptional value for the Hawks but it favors them in this spot by a wide margin in my opinion. Looking at the regular season, Orlando won the season series 3-1 with those three wins being relatively easy blowouts. That is going too put a lot of people on Orlando based on the head-to-head advantage but it needs to be looked at in more detail. Looking at the two games in Orlando, the Magic were favored by 3.5 and 5.5 points and now the number has jumped considerably. This is largely in part to Orlando having swept the Bobcats in the opening round plus the fact that it is riding a 10-game winning streak and going back further, being 24-3 over its last 27 games. That is impressive to say the least. However, I am a big believer in momentum and Orlando has lost a lot of that seeing it has sat for eight days following that Game Four victory over the Bobcats. Atlanta is playing on just a day of rest but the Game Seven win was a big momentum booster and it ended up being a game that was far from tough so a lot of energy was not even used. The Hawks won the final meeting of the regular against Orlando and even though that was in Atlanta, the Hawks will have some confidence following losses against the Magic in six straight meetings dating back to last season. There is no doubt that rest is good in this league this late in the season but too much rest can be a detriment and that is the case with the Magic. The Hawks are a perfect 4-0 ATS this season as underdogs of six points or more and 7-1 ATS as underdogs of five points or more. They are also 15-6 ATS this season coming off a double-digit home win and 12-2 ATS on the season when playing teams with a winning percentage greater than .700. 10* Atlanta Hawks

Phoenix was able to get by the injury riddled Blazers in six games and it now faces a playoff nemesis. The Spurs have ousted the Suns the last four times they have met in the postseason, the last coming in the first round in 2008. You could call it a mental thing, a matchup thing or a combination of both but Phoenix feels it is better equipped this season to turn it around. The difference from the last go around in 2008 is that Phoenix now has the home court advantage and that is obviously a big factor in the playoffs. The Spurs upset the second seeded Mavericks in the Conference Quarterfinals so they are obviously playing some good hoops as well. They only won one of the three games played in Dallas and they lost both meetings in Phoenix during the regular season. One big factor for Phoenix is Amare Stoudemire who has given the Spurs a lot of problems. He has scored 28, 41 and 29 against San Antonio this season and over the last three playoff series, he has averaged 28.8 ppg and 31.7 in the series without Shaquille O'Neal in 2008. Similar to the Portland series, tempo will be a factor and if the Suns get the offense going, they will be near impossible to beat. When scoring 106 or more points, they are 47-8 (41-14 ATS) including 3-0 ATS against the Spurs, so putting up a ton of points is the way to win. It is rare for Phoenix to allow teams to miss the century mark but in the 25 games it has done so, it is 23-2 (21-3-1 ATS). The Suns are 16-5 ATS this season against top teams with a winning percentage between .600 and .700. Both teams are well rested here and while you would think that favors the Spurs, it doesn

The Lakers are coming off a tougher than expected series against Oklahoma City and it is imperative they get off to a strong start in the conference semifinals. Los Angeles won the first two meetings against the Thunder at home but both were closer than expected and that led to the Lakers losing both of the first two road games at Oklahoma City. The Lakers are well aware of how good Utah is on its home floor so they cannot afford any sort of slip up at the Staples Center, especially in Game One when the momentum could shift to the Jazz for the entire series. Los Angeles took three of four from Utah, with the lone loss coming in Salt Lake City and that was a big revenge game for the Jazz which three nights before lost in Los Angeles by 24 points. Speaking of game in Los Angeles, the Lakers have absolutely dominated this series at home of late, winning 14 straight meetings while going 11-3 ATS in those games. Only two of those 14 wins were by single-digits with the average margin of victory being 13.3 ppg. The Jazz showed their struggles in Denver in the first round despite winning one of the three games played there and going back a ways, they have struggled in this spot going 4-16-1 ATS in their last 21 games as road underdogs between 5.0 and 10.5 points. The Lakers have been far from efficient following wins but this one is different as it is a brand new series and that means a lot in the conference. The Lakers have taken out Utah in each of the last two postseasons, both coming in five games, so this is certainly nothing new and the result here won

This one is filled with line value. The Hawks are favored by 9.5 points in most shops and that is the highest they have been favored by in any game against Milwaukee this season. In my opinion, that should not be the case in a series that has gone the distance as well as the fact that Milwaukee has already won in Atlanta once this season. The Bucks had a chance to win this series on their home floor but picked the worst time to play one of their worst games of the season as they shot a miserable 32.9 percent from the floor while scoring a season-low 69 points. Milwaukee can sulk and prepare for the worst or once again come out and play hard and try to steal another win. At worst, a tight game either way means a win for our ticket. The plan is pretty simple actually and that is they just need to make some shots. Either way, it

At first glace you see that Boston and Cleveland split the regular season series at two games apiece but that really doesn

We were able to win at home with the Nuggets on Wednesday and Denver once again needs to win to extend this series. Playing in Denver is one thing for the Nuggets but playing on the road is a different matter so we have to ask if this team is capable of winning a huge road playoff game. I do not think so, especially with their center sitting on the sidelines as Nene is out with a sprained knee and he was having a solid series before that Game Five injury. This has only added to the severe lack of depth for Denver up front and with two days to prepare for this, I give Utah coach Jerry Sloan an enormous advantage over Denver interim coach Adrian Dantley. The coaching edge was already there but in a situation like this, it is only stronger. With George Karl coaching, the Nuggets beat the Jazz three out of four during the regular season. The Game Five win for Denver was obviously a huge one but it was not the win I thought would take place as I thought the Nuggets would take care of business from the start and coast with an easy win. Instead it took a late 13-2 run to pull away and even that was a surprise considering the Nuggets had a 42-25 advantage in free-throw attempts, making 14 more of those. Even with two of its starters out, the Jazz have been the better team in the series for two reasons. It has played together, and it has strong leadership from the bench. They played their worst game of the series and still had a chance late in the fourth quarter to win. Utah is 17-4 ATS following a road loss this season including 9-1 ATS off a double-digit road loss. Denver meanwhile is just 9-18 ATS this season following a double-digit win. 9* Utah Jazz

We won with the Lakers in Game Five as they were able to finally run away with a game and take a 3-2 series lead. The home team has won all five games thus far and I think that finally comes to an end tonight. As good as Oklahoma City has played in this series, I think any sort of looseness that it may have had is now gone and the pressure squarely falls on their shoulders. I simply cannot see the top seed in the Western Conference being taken to seven games in the first round and Los Angeles will make sure that does not happen. This game sets up a lot like the Phoenix game from last night where we cashed a ticket on the Suns. The higher seed was able to capture Game Five at home and that is a huge advantage and it almost deflated the opposing team. The team that wins Game Five in a series that is tied ends up taking the series 83 percent of the time and we can add Phoenix to those statistics now. The Lakers that we saw on Tuesday is one that we expected some time ago but was in hibernation for too long. They absolutely dominated the game from the start in every phase while building a 32-point lead and coasting in. Kobe Bryant got some needed rest while big men Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum went a combined 18-26 from the floor and showed the big edge Los Angeles has in the paint and it will need to continue that. This one comes down to the Lakers focus and state of mind as they clearly showed that the Thunder do not belong on the same court. Now it is just a matter of not letting up and that will be the case tonight. 10* Los Angeles Lakers

Milwaukee is getting absolutely no respect in this series and it is not only because this is a must win game for the Hawks. Atlanta went from a -7.5-point favorite to a 9-point favorite in its last two home games and in game in Milwaukee, it went from +1 to -2 and is now -2 once again. Yes it is a must win game for the Hawks but that certainly does not mean it is going to happen. This team is solid but they have no matchup advantages here and this has pretty much been shown throughout the season series. The last game for Atlanta is completely frustrating as it blew a 13-point lead and was on the wrong end of a late 14-0 run and while that was two nights ago, that is going to have lingering effects. Right now all of the pressure is on the Hawks, who have won just one road postseason game in the last three appearances and had their 14-game home winning streak snapped. Milwaukee was not a very strong road team during the regular season and it is now 19-25 away from home and the Hawks are not much better on the road either, going 19-24 after that last loss. Milwaukee is 11 games better at home than Atlanta is on the road and that is simply not being taken into consideration once again. It can be argued that if Milwaukee can win on the road, Atlanta can as well. Sure it can but I don

A week ago, Portland was feeling pretty good about itself. It had stolen a game in Phoenix and headed home with the series split at one game apiece and took over the home court advantage. Now just seven days later, the Blazers are on the brink of elimination making this a must win situation. That is going to put a lot of pressure on them and I just don

We won with Dallas on Tuesday as the Mavericks kept their season alive with an easy home win over San Antonio. I am sticking with Dallas once again as I believe they finally breakthrough in San Antonio after two close calls. The Mavericks lost the two games by a combined seven points while missing the cover by a half-point in each game. In reality, this series could already be over or at the very least, Dallas being the team possessing the 3-2 series lead. The gameplan is pretty simple for Dallas and that is to score points by keeping the game at a quicker pace. It is easier said than done of course but the Mavericks did it in Game Five and they now must translate that to the road. Something has to give in San Antonio for this Dallas team as there are two conflicting streaks here. The Mavericks were the best road team in the NBA this season with a 27-14 record but the playoff road run has been horrid as they have a 2-15 road record in the playoffs since taking a 2-0 lead against Miami in the 2006 NBA Finals. They know better than to get rattled in a road setting. Truth be told, they handled the situations well in Games Three and Four in San Antonio, but lapsed just long enough to get beat in a couple of close games. Dallas simply needs to carry over what it did in Game Five and that is once again play with a sense of urgency. Dallas outrebounded San Antonio by 11, its largest margin of the series. The Mavericks totaled 21 blocks and steals, easily their highest total of the series and they consistently attacked the basket instead of settling for jumpers and wound up shooting 33 free throws and totaling 20 assists. San Antonio is just 10-23 revenging a road loss over the last two seasons and Dallas is a perfect 5-0 ATS in its last five games following a double-digit win. 9* Dallas Mavericks

We cashed with Utah the last two games and with the Jazz having a chance to move onto the Conference Semifinals, we will be going the other way here. The value in this line has shrunk for the Nuggets, meaning it has gone up for the Jazz, but the home team is the play here no matter the line as I expect Denver to make a statement. The Nuggets looked great in their first home game in this series, winning by 13 points as 5.5-point favorites but it was the complete opposite in Game Two as the Jazz turned the tables. That game Denver did not look like the same team that dominated at home the majority of the season. The Nuggets have won six of the last eight meetings at home and they bring in a 35-8 home record and their 34-7 regular season record was tied for the second best home record in the league. The Jazz did have a great season on the road as they finished a game over .500 during the regular season but that was actually tied for the second worst of all Western Conference playoff teams. The Nuggets fall into a great simple yet effective revenge situation as well. Play on home favorites that are playing with triple revenge in a game involving two teams with winning percentages between .600 and .750. This situation is 75-37 ATS (67 percent) since 1996. Denver is 16-3 ATS as a home favorite between 6.5 and 9.0 points over the last two years while also going 19-9 ATS in its last 28 games coming off a double-digit loss over the same span. Utah meanwhile is a miserable 4-16-1 ATS in its last 21games as an underdog between 5.0 and 10.5 points. 10* Denver Nuggets

I thought this would be a much more popular pick but the Lakers are catching some rare value in my opinion. After losing Game Three against the Thunder, Los Angeles suffered its worst playoff loss since Boston's clinching 131-92 victory in Game Six of the 2008 NBA Finals. Not many people would have guessed that Game Five is now a must win situation for the Lakers but here it is and we get a very decent line in going along with that. Making this important is the fact that the Lakers do not want an elimination game in Oklahoma City plus they are 17-0 in best-of-seven series when they win Game Five at home. Game Four was a nightmare. The Thunder outscored them 24-2 in fast break points, out rebounded them by seven, made 14 more free throws (42) than the Lakers even attempted (28) and led by as many as 29 in the second half en route to a 21-point win. The Lakers will target one area in particular in Game Five and that is the fact that Oklahoma City has run them off the court this series, outscoring them in fast break points by a staggering 72-17 margin.

Dallas is on the unfortunate end of a 3-1 series deficit and it could very well be up 3-1 right now showing just how close this one has been. Now back home, the Mavericks will need to obviously win to keep the series going and they must do so with their own brand of basketball and that is to run the Spurs out of American Airlines Arena. Making shots would help as would making stops on defense. During the last three games, all Spurs wins, San Antonio has shot 48.2, 47.3 and 48.7 percent from the field. Meanwhile Dallas has been slow out of the gates, scoring 20, 16 and 17 points in the first quarter while shooting a combined 20-of-61 (30.5 percent) from the floor. Scoring in transition is the key.

Atlanta won the first two games of this series by 10 points and the Bucks returned the favor with an 18-point win in Game Three. Based on the linesmakers, they are expecting the Hawks to bounceback tonight as they are favored again but I once again disagree with that. We won with Milwaukee on Saturday and we look to do it again while getting points at home so an outright win means the cover yet again. Milwaukee was not a very strong road team during the regular season and it is now 18-25 away from home and the Hawks are not much better on the road either, going 19-23 after that last loss. Milwaukee is 10 games better at home than Atlanta is on the road and that is simply not being taken into consideration. Atlanta won the last regular season meeting in Milwaukee but the other two regular season meetings were a split with the Bucks winning at home and losing in Atlanta in overtime. The Bucks started the season very strong with an 8-3 opening run but then went 4-15 in its next 19 games and many thought that was the end. Instead the Bucks finished the season as one of the hotter teams in the league. The Hawks have a bad history in the playoffs away from home, going 4-17 ATS in their last 21 road playoff games. Also they are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games following a loss while Milwaukee is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games following a double-digit home win. 10* Milwaukee Bucks

We cashed a ticket with Utah in the last game in this series and we will go right back with the Jazz here. It is almost verbatim as well. Denver and Utah finished with identical records and claimed the fourth and fifth seeds respectively in the Western Conference. They were separated by just two games with their home records yet the linesmakers are not thinking these teams are very equal and that is where we are seeing the value. Denver was favored by -5.5 and -6 in its two home games while Utah was favored by just -2.5 points in that first home game in Salt Lake City and the line is even less here in most places. The Nuggets are by far the more publically favored team and that should not be the case especially after a split in the first two games of this series and a Utah rout in Game Three. Obviously the injury factor is also playing a role but the Jazz have overcome it before and they have done so again here though the first couple games. Adversity, forward C.J. Miles figures, isn't necessarily a bad thing.

Dallas missed the cover by a half-point last time out and now trailing 2-1 in this series, it is now desperation time. The last game was lost at the free throw line as the Spurs were able to take 11 more attempts while converting six more of those. It has now also been two straight games where Dallas has not shot the ball well and it needs to get back to simply making shots. It is easier said than done but Dallas is a great shooting team and the exceptionally tough defenses of the Spurs are a thing of the past. There is also the simple fact that the Mavericks need to win the smaller aspects of the game such as rebounding and second chance points. Home court advantage has moved to the San Antonio side but the Spurs are not as dominating at home as they used to be. The Spurs are 30-12 at home this season, but the Mavericks were one of the 12 to win there during the regular season. Overall Dallas is 27-15 on the road which is tied for the best road record in the NBA with the Celtics. The Mavericks won 10 of their last 12 games away from American Airlines Center during the regular season, including victories in tough spots at Orlando, Atlanta and Charlotte on a back-to-back after a home game. They have not lost back-to-back road games since mid-February. 10* Dallas Mavericks

The Game Three win by Boston put a dagger in Miami and pretty ended this series. No NBA team has ever come back from a 3-0 series deficit and just knowing that will bring the confidence down for those teams on the wrong end. While some will argue that the team with the series lead will take the gas pedal off, the Celtics are taking a different approach to this game.

The Bucks had trouble in Atlanta as they lost the first two games of this series by 10 points each but heading home will certainly turn things around. Milwaukee was not a very strong road team during the regular season and it is now 18-25 away from home and the Hawks are not much better on the road either, going 19-22 during the regular season. The Bucks started the season very strong with an 8-3 opening run but then went 4-15 in its next 19 games and many thought that was the end. Instead the Bucks finished the season as one of the hotter teams in the league and they will need to make a statement here to turn this series around. Atlanta won the last regular season meeting in Milwaukee but the other two regular season meetings were a split with the Bucks winning at home and losing in Atlanta in overtime. The Hawks have a bad history in the playoffs away from home, going 4-16 ATS in their last 20 road playoff games while Milwaukee is 15-7 ATS this season as a home favorite of fewer than six points and 20-5 ATS as a favorite of fewer than five points in all games. Atlanta is just 7-13 this season as a road underdog and a straight up loss likely means a cover loss with this short number. 10* Milwaukee Bucks

It is do or die time for the Bobcats. Orlando has been dominant the first two games of this series but a trip back to Charlotte is what the Bobcats need. The Magic are a solid road team with a 25-16 record away from home but the Bobcats are 31-10 on their home floor and I think that is not being taken into account in this line. The first two games of this series were not very competitive but the regular season series was however with Charlotte covering two of the last three meetings with the lone setback coming in overtime. The Bobcats are 7-4 ATS as a home underdog this season while going 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine games following a loss. It is pretty evident that Charlotte will be looking to get off to a quicker start as it has fallen behind early and by a significant margin in the first two games of this series. Playing at home will allow the Magic not to get out to that big start. Charlotte is part of a great situation. Play on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 and with a winning percentage between .510 and .600 that are coming off two or more consecutive road losses playing a winning team. This situation is 54-24 ATS (69.2 percent) since 1996. 9* Charlotte Bobcats

Denver and Utah finished with identical records and claimed the fourth and fifth seeds respectively in the Western Conference. They were separated by just two games with their home records yet the linesmakers are not thinking these teams are very equal and that is where we are seeing the value. Denver was favored by -5.5 and -6 in its two home games while Utah is favored by just -2.5 points in this first home game in Salt Lake City. Why is there such a discrepancy? The big reason is public choice as the Nuggets are by far the more publically favored team and that should not be the case especially after a split in the first two games of this series. Obviously the injury factor is also playing a role but the Jazz have overcome it before and they have done so again here though the first couple games. Adversity, forward C.J. Miles figures, isn't necessarily a bad thing.

We cashed a ticket with San Antonio in Game Two as the Spurs won outright and we will stick with the road team here expecting Dallas to bounce back. Last night we cashed with Phoenix on the road and this situation is pretty similar as we catch the much better team getting points. The Mavericks were dominated at home but it was more of a bad case of shooting than anything else as Dallas shot just 36.5 percent from the floor including 36.8 percent from long range. Also like Phoenix, Dallas needs to control the tempo as it will want to run it and make it a quicker-paced game just like it has done in other meetings this season. There is also the simple fact that the Mavericks need to win the smaller aspects of the game such as rebounding and second chance points. Home court advantage has moved to the San Antonio side but the Spurs are not as dominating at home as they used to be. The Spurs are 29-12 at home this season, but the Mavericks were one of the 12 to win there. Overall Dallas is 27-14 on the road which is the best road record in the NBA so winning away from home and getting the home court advantage back is far from a stretch. The Mavericks won 10 of their last 12 games away from American Airlines Center, including victories in tough spots at Orlando, Atlanta and Charlotte on a back-to-back after a home game. Dallas falls into a solid situation as well. Play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are revenging a same season loss and coming off a loss as a favorite. This situation is 117-70 ATS (62.6 percent) since 1996. 10* Dallas Mavericks

Portland is feeling pretty good about things after leaving Phoenix with a series split and heading home for the next two games. The Blazers really have to be concerned about the second game however as Phoenix made some adjustments, minor ones, and blew away Portland. That was the Suns team I expected to show up in Game One and now they cannot afford to lose another game right after as getting home court back is the biggest thing now. With the Game Two win, the Suns once again are in the driver

Chicago had every opportunity to steal Game Two in Cleveland but it fell apart in the final quarter and now the Bulls must try to regroup and win both games at home to get back into this series. That is easier said than done but I do believe the return to Chicago will have them ready tonight even though getting back into the series may seem like a longshot. LeBron James went off for 40 points on Monday as he was pretty much on fire. The Bulls used a great defensive strategy against him as they forced him to beat them with jump shots and he did just that. The same strategy will be used again and the percentages are definitely in the Bulls favor even though James is one of the greatest. Overall he is not a consistent jump shooter and Chicago will ban k on the inconsistency of that for tonight. The aggressiveness of the Bulls came through in Game Two as well. The Bulls won the rebounding battle 37-36 after getting stung on the boards in the opener. Chicago led the league in rebounding but was outrebounded 50-38 and allowed 13 offensive rebounds that led to the Cavaliers' 42-26 edge in second-chance points. This time around it attacked the basket a lot more than they did in game one and was able to get easy transition baskets and putbacks on misses. The Bulls also finished with only four turnovers which was a franchise playoff low and while we won

The favorites were the story again last night as three chalks covered in the four games, two by over 20 points each. That is going to get the public on the home teams once again and despite that, this is the typical NBA playoff game two line move where there is actually a better price on the favorite. Dallas seems to be the public

The Magic have been playing outstanding and some are saying they have a great shot at representing the Eastern Conference in the NBA Finals for a second straight season. That would not surprise me at all but I think this is a difficult spot for Orlando. Charlotte was able to cover game one of this series but the Bobcats were never really in that game. They fell behind early and big and while putting together a big rally, they readily admitted that they did not come into the game with the right focus. This time it will be different as we will see a looser team that feels the pressure has shifted the other way. According to the Orlando Sentinel it was pretty evident that the Bobcats felt uneasy entering their playoff series. Guard Stephen Jackson remembered the locker room being quiet and tight Sunday evening before Game 1. The Bobcats started the game focused intensely on Magic center Dwight Howard, and in the meantime got burned by point guard Jameer Nelson. By the time Charlotte settled down, Orlando had a double-digit lead. The Bobcats made the game more respectable by the time it was over and they improved to 6-1 ATS this season as underdogs of eight points or more and they are now 10-3 ATS on the season when playing against teams with a winning percentage of .700 or better. The regular season series was won by Orlando three games to one but only the first game was out of hand when the Magic won by 12 points in Charlotte. Including Sunday, the Bobcats have covered three of the last four meetings with the lone ATS setback coming in overtime making the road team a perfect 5-0 ATS this season. While the Bobcats will come into this game with a totally different mindset, Orlando may be doing the same but not necessarily in a good way. The Magic did not practice on Tuesday and Charlotte is using that as a motivator.

Since the opening day of the playoffs when the favorites won and covered all four games, we have seen a shift go to the underdog side. We obviously cannot base any individual game on past history of favorite against underdog but what that did do is put even more of the public action on those favorites, an already popular bet in the playoffs to begin with. I was guilty of it as well on that first night as that is where the value was at the time and now with some adjustments, we have to look at the other sides. We definitely saw this Monday and Tuesday is no different. The Lakers had a pretty much wire-to-wire win against Oklahoma City in game one of this series. Los Angeles built a 17-point lead but it could not pull away from the Thunder despite a big advantage at the three-point line. This is definitely where the difference was as they went 8-22 from long range which was far from great but Oklahoma City was just 2-16 (12.5 percent) from behind the arc and if you consider, if it had connected on just a couple more of those, this game could have gone either way. The Thunder are not a great three-point shooting team but we will see a better effort tonight. This line has come down a point from that first game and that is putting a lot of action, a vast majority actually, on the Lakers for this game two battle. After all, they are the top seed in the Western Conference and have been the most overvalued team in the league this season. The Lakers are just 34-46-3 ATS on the season and that alone shows overvalue. Two of the three Lakers wins in this season series were close while Oklahoma City was able to avoid the sweep and win the final meeting which shows the matchups are not one-sided. The Thunder are 18-8 ATS this season as road underdogs and they are 13-4 ATS as underdogs of five or more points. The Lakers have been horrid as favorites as they are just a very overvalued team which has basically been the case from day one. 10* Oklahoma City Thunder

Phoenix is the one favorite I like tonight even though this line has gone up from the game one number. That was totally expected however as the linesmakers need to make the adjustment for a home team that is down 1-0 in the series and is basically in a must-win situation. I am not a fan of going with these must win teams because we do lose a lot of value but this case is different as the undermanned Blazers will have a much tougher time matching up not only physically but matching the intensity of the Suns who are a pretty angry bunch right now. I still think Phoenix is going to be a tough opponent in the postseason as it finished as one of the hottest teams in the league to end the season. Phoenix closed the season 28-7 over its final 35 games and enters the postseason as one of the hottest teams in the league and that momentum can be a big asset despite what we saw on Sunday. Bringing in the best record in the league since the All-Star break, the Suns are going to be a dangerous team this postseason and after all of the great Phoenix teams of the past, this could very well be the best one yet. The Suns are 18-8 ATS in their last 26 games when playing a team with a winning percentage between .600 and .700 and they are 25-8 ATS in their last 33 games against teams that allow opponents to shoot 46 percent or better from the floor. This includes a 16-4 ATS mark in their last 20 games against such teams. Also Phoenix is 11-2-1 ATS in its last 14 games as a favorite between 5.0 and 10.5 points. We should see a big bounce back effort and if the Suns have the same intensity and urgency as they did against Denver and Utah in their final regular season games, the results will be a blowout here as well. 9* Phoenix Suns

Milwaukee definitely came out slow on Saturday while Atlanta looked like the more focused and determined team. I was surprised at not necessarily the result but of how it happened. The final score showed a 10-point margin but Atlanta outshot the Bucks 53.9 percent to 45.1 percent from the floor as well as 54.5 percent to 30 percent from long range. Those advantages show a possible big matchup edge for the Hawks but that isn

The Bulls lost game one by 13 points but it needs to be pointed out that after getting down 32-18 after the first quarter, Chicago actually outplayed Cleveland the rest of the way. Outplayed may be the wrong term here but outscored is definitely a fact and that is our concern in the long run. We cashed with the Cavaliers on Saturday but we are going the other way this time as the line movement from the first game to the second game is going to line up the public on Cleveland as the line is currently one point less than what it was for Saturday

I believe this is a series that the Suns will want to end quickly so we should see them come out strong and not give Portland any hope. This series had the making of a great one but the loss of Brandon Roy is simply too much for Portland to overcome. I

Saturday was a big day for the chalk in the NBA playoffs as all four favorites were able to win and cover. Good thing for us is that we were on three of those but we switch sides right out of the gates on Sunday and jump on the underdog Thunder. The Lakers enter the postseason on a massive slide and while a lot of that is due to the absence of Kobe Bryant, the problems started well before that. Yesterday we rode the Cavaliers to a win and it can be argued they were in the same boat as they came into the postseason with very little momentum but in my opinion it is not close to the same. The Lakers closed the season by going 4-7 over their last 11 games and that is not what they needed although many will say it does not matter. The difference with Cleveland is that it went 0-4 in its last four games but all of those games were without LeBron James. Bryant missed three of the final four games but the difference is that is was not due to rest but a finger injury and the whole chemistry of this team is a mess right now. Andrew Bynum is back after missing the last 13 games but I don

Utah is coming off its biggest game of the season and it was hammered at home against Phoenix. Instead of getting the third seed in the Western Conference, that loss dropped the Jazz are the way into the fifth seed and home court advantage was lost. They now much travel into one of the toughest home courts in the NBA and even though that last game against the Suns was Wednesday, I still think they are going to show the effects. The Jazz did have a great season on the road as they finished a game over .500 but that was actually tied for the second worst of all Western Conference playoff teams. Denver is fortunate to be in this spot and I think it is going to take it and run. The Nuggets closed the season on a bit of a downer, going 6-7 in their last 13 games including an annihilating loss in Phoenix in the regular season finale that put their seeding up in the air until the following night. They caught a break and we should be a big bounceback here and Denver actually falls into a great situation explained down further. They won the division because of the first tiebreaker which was a 3-1 series win over Utah. The Nuggets have won five of the last six meetings at home and they bring in a 34-7 home record which finished tied for the second best home record in the league. The situation Denver falls into as mentioned is to play on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are revenging a same season loss and coming off a road loss of 20 points or more. This situation is 37-15 ATS (71.2 percent) over the last five seasons with the average point differential being +10.2 ppg. Denver is a good team to play in this situation as it is 18-8 ATS in its last 26 games following a double-digit loss including covers in six of its last seven. Utah meanwhile is just 7-18-1 ATS in its last 26 games as an underdog between 5.0 and 10.5 points. 9* Denver Nuggets

Boston finished the season in a rather hefty slump but the last two games, both losses, were rather meaningless. Most starters were rested in that season finale against the Bucks but looking back we see a 3-7 finish to the season which can definitely be a concern to some but not to me. Many preach motivation and while it is important, I don

Momentum is huge in the playoffs in any sport and winning at the end of the regular season gives teams

The Utah victory over the Warriors last night set the table for a huge game tonight in Salt Lake City. It is as simple as this. If the Jazz win, they win the division and get the third seed in the Western Conference playoffs. They can also get the second seed with a win and a Dallas loss. If they lose, Denver wins the division because of the tiebreaker and they drop to the fifth seed and that is obviously a huge because they lose home court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. We all know motivation is key and there is nothing more to be motivated about than this. The loss of Carlos Boozer is a big setback and he remains questionable tonight so he could play and to be honest, if he doesn

This is an interesting game for Utah. The Western Conference is going to come down to the final day of the regular season on Wednesday and there are only two seeds that are cemented, the first and the last with the Lakers and Thunder respectively. Everything else is still a mess but with the solid foundation of teams, it is a very good mess. Number two through number seven won

The Kings have been in a horrible stretch as they have lost nine of ten and the season is thankfully almost done. This is the final home game for Sacramento and that means a lot in this situation as any past record really gets tossed out the window. Going back further the Kings are just 3-8 in their last 11 home games but seven of those losses came against teams that are going to be in the playoffs so the schedule itself has been far from easy. Three of their last six wins have come against the Clippers and that certainly is not saying a whole lot but another of those six wins came at Houston in the last meeting back on March 3rd. That sets up a revenge situation for the Rockets but road revenge is something I am not an advocate of especially in tonight

Milwaukee lost to one possible first round opponent on Saturday and it will look to avoid making it two straight tonight. A win here keeps the Bucks in fifth place in the Eastern Conference and it is a spot that they will want to hold onto despite that loss against the Celtics last time out. Despite that, this team is playing exceptional and it does not want to lose any of this momentum and confidence heading into the playoffs. The loss to Boston snapped a four-game winning streak for Milwaukee who is now a spectacular 27-10 over its last 37 games. This includes a 26-9-2 ATS mark and the Bucks season winning percentage against the number of 64.9 percent is easily the best in the NBA. Atlanta has won its last 11 home games but continues to have problems on the road, where it had dropped six straight before dominating the final nine minutes of a 105-95 win at Washington on Saturday night. A win over the Wizards is not going to impress me and prior to that, the last two road wins came against New Jersey and Washington again so they have done nothing but beat the bottom feeders in the league away from home. The last win over a playoff team on the road came back on March 1st against the Bulls and Chicago technically is not even in the playoffs as of yet. Before that, the Hawks only road win over a playoff team since January 12th came at Utah and for the season, Atlanta is 6-14 in its 20 road games against current playoff teams (Chicago included). This includes a loss in the last meeting at Milwaukee and this is where I need to bring up line value and line movement. The last meeting in Milwaukee came on March 22nd which was less than three weeks ago. Milwaukee won that game by three points but it failed to cover the number as the Bucks were six-point favorites in that game. What has changed to make this lien go down by five points? The Hawks are 6-4 in the 10 games since then while Milwaukee is 6-5 in its 11 games since then so there is no real difference there and there is no way Andrew Bogut is worth five points. This is a big game for the Bucks who can take the season series with a win. 9* Milwaukee Bucks

Orlando is coming off a win yesterday in Cleveland, who played without LeBron James as he was sat down to rest once again, but nonetheless it was still a big victory for the Magic over their recent Eastern Conference rival. The Magic trailed by as much as 16 points early in the second quarter and looked somewhat disinterested in play. But Van Gundy kept pushing his team, warning them that they were on their

This is definitely the game of the day in the NBA but only because of the playoff implications and certainly not because of the talent on the floor. It is very possible that every team in the Western Conference playoffs could have 50 wins while these two powerhouses are sitting three games below .500 in a battle for the eighth and final playoff position in the Eastern Conference. The Bulls are favored which is not a surprise considering the issues on the Raptors side. Toronto is without All-Star Chris Bosh and it is very possible he has played his last game in a Raptors uniform. Toronto is also going to be without Antoine Wright who is nursing a strained ankle meaning that two of the top seven players will not see action which is pretty big. Speaking of big, the absence of Bosh has caused the Raptors to be on the wrong end of the rebounding battle the last three games (Bosh played just two minutes against Cleveland) and now they face the top rebounding team in the NBA. He matchup edge, which is rare for me to even look at in the NBA, goes to the Bulls in a big way. Chicago is coming off a loss at New Jersey in double-overtime which no doubt put it in a bad spot but that loss actually puts it into a good situation as explained later. That loss snapped a three-game road winning streak so the Bulls have shown recent ability to win away from home. They are 3-3 both straight up and against the number as road chalk which is obviously average but Toronto is just 4-9 straight up and 5-8 ATS as home underdogs. Chicago is playing better over the longer haul, going 7-4 in its last 11 games and it has not lost back-to-back games since mid-March, going 4-0 following its last four losses. Toronto did have a three-game winning streak to close March and begin April but it is still a disappointing 3-7 in its last 10 points. With this game being so important, any sort of revenge factor is not as big but the Bulls lost at home to the Raptors by 32 points and have actually lost both meetings this season by double-digits. That will be in the back of the Bulls players heads no doubt and lets not forget Bosh played in both of those games, averaging 26.5 ppg and 11.5 rpg. The situation mentioned earlier is to play against teams that are coming off a road cover where they lost straight up as an underdog going up against an opponent that is coming off a loss of 10 points or more as a road favorite. This situation is 33-8 ATS (80.5%) since 1996. 10* Chicago Bulls

This is no doubt an ugly game but we are getting tremendous value with the home team. The Clippers have dropped seven straight games and they are far from dominant at home but a .500 record isn

Out with the old and in with the new. The Celtics were embarrassed at home yet again, this time against the hapless Wizards which built a lead as big as 28 points at one time and easily ran away with it. A Celtics team from two years ago would never have let that happen and even though the roster is the same, this is far from the same team. Conventional thinking will peg Boston for a bounceback tonight after such a horrible loss and the public money is certainly showing that as despite the short number, the majority of the action is streaming in on Boston. The Celtics are tied with the second best road record in the NBA but that does little good here against one of the hottest teams in the league. The Bucks won last night in Philadelphia in a game was not nearly as close as the final score indicates. That was the fourth straight win for Milwaukee who is now a spectacular 27-9 over its last 36 games. This includes a 26-8-2 ATS mark and the Bucks season winning percentage against the number of 65.8 percent is easily the best in the NBA. The old versus young adage comes into play because both teams played last night. Milwaukee is the best team in the NBA when playing with no rest, going 17-3-1 ATS and this includes an 11-1 ATS mark when traveling from the road to back home. They are 28-11 at home on the season while covering 24 of those games including going 12-6 ATS against teams with a winning record. Boston is just 1-2 ATS with no rest going from home to the road and while they are solid on the road, this is just the fourth time they have been in this situation this year. In actuality it could be considered the first as those first three no-rest road games came against Washington, Indiana and New Jersey, all non-playoff teams. The short price is also in favor of Milwaukee as it is a tremendous 19-4-1 ATS this season when favored by fewer than five points. This could very well be the matchup in the first round of the playoffs and this is easily the best matchup that the Bucks could get so holding onto the fifth seed is critical. 9* Milwaukee Bucks

This is a big game for both teams as far as playoff positioning goes so this is one of the late season games where we do not have a significant line shift due to a must win situation. As far as motivation goes, with the playoff seedings so important, it could be concluded that it is even on both sides as well but I give a clear edge to the Mavericks for motivation. They have lost the first three meetings this season against Portland and will be looking to avoid the season sweep and it is very possible these teams could meet in the first round of the playoffs and the last thing Dallas needs to be down 4-0 on the year, giving the Blazers unnecessary confidence. This is not one of those matchups where Dallas is at a huge disadvantage. It has just been a case of not playing good and catching this game in a bad spot. After suffering back-to-back losses against Orlando and Oklahoma City, the Mavericks won last time out against Memphis to keep pace in the Western Conference. Dallas has not had a road win over a playoff team since early March but you can

Because of my contrarian thinking, New Orleans was the first look in this game based on the while home underdog having a better home record than the road team but this is a totally different circumstance. The Hornets are close, if not there already, to booking their tickets to end the season. The loss of Chris Paul was devastating as New Orleans simply could not make a push without him. The Hornets got him back for seven games and while there were only two wins over that stretch, you could see a difference in the way they were playing as the end of the season performances were rather strong. However, Paul is now done for the year with another major injury and a loss against Charlotte by a point last time out could be the beginning of the end. A tight loss like that is almost worse than a blowout loss as it bring in the thoughts of what could have been. The Hornets have now lost four of their last five home games and it won

I took Chicago in the last meeting between these two teams and it took out the Nets by 23 points in a big revenge situation. I will be going the other way tonight and a lot of it is due to line value. There is a tendency for bettors to look at teams that are in need of wins for playoff purposes. Those are tough teams to bet on as in every sport, the lines are jacked up and the value actually goes toward the other team that is playing for nothing. In that last meeting just less than two weeks ago, the Bulls were favored by nine points art home and based on the venue change, they should be about a one-point favorite here. But the adjusted line is much greater and that is where the value comes into play. Even though LeBron James did not play last night, the victory over the Cavaliers was a massive one for Chicago and I think it puts the Bulls into letdown mode tonight. The playoffs are within reach as the Bulls are tied with Toronto for eighth place in the Eastern Conference and the importance should surpass any sort of possible letdown but that is not the case with this inconsistent team. The Nets are back home after back-to-back double-digit losses on the road. We all know about the tough season New Jersey is having but the recent play has been better especially at home where the Nets are 4-1 in their last five games. That is a significant improvement from their 3-31 start in the first 34 home games. That last loss in Chicago sets up a revenge situation the other way tonight and the Bulls have historically had trouble in East Rutherford, going 2-10 ATS in the last 12 meetings. This included an outright loss back in December. The Bulls will very likely be peeking ahead to Sunday as they are at Toronto which will go a long way in deciding that final playoff position. 9* New Jersey Nets

This may sound like a facetious statement but I think the Lakers are going to present exceptional value the rest of the season. This is the complete opposite of what it has been all season as Los Angeles has been overvalued the majority of the time simply because it is the Lakers and they are the reigning World Champions. They have hit a rough stretch with losses in three of their last four games and four of their last six contests and this is going to turn people against them as the regular season winds down. This has a lot to do with thinking there is not much to play for before the playoffs begin but that is far from the case. Los Angeles still does not have the top seed in the Western Conference locked up yet and while it is just one win away with laughable games remaining, this is where it wants to clinch it. The Lakers are in need of a big victory as they have been few and far between and it is needed before the playoffs start to provide some momentum. They have not played since Sunday when they were trounced at home against San Antonio by 19 points so that alone will provide a spark and the time certainly does not hurt. Denver is coming off a big win last night against Oklahoma City as it rallied from a 13-point deficit and outscored the Thunder 25-14 in the fourth quarter. The Nuggets now must turn right around and face the best team in the conference in a really bad situation. The Nuggets have struggled this season when playing with no rest, going 6-12-2 ATS in the second of a back-to-back set including a 2-4 ATS mark when going from the road to home. The price range is not in their favor as the Nuggets are 2-8 ATS this season when favored by fewer than four points and 5-14 ATS at this range going back to last season. The Lakers were embarrassed by 26 points in the first meeting in Denver this season so that adds to the motivation even though they did win the last meeting in Los Angeles. The loss against the Spurs will also play a role as the Lakers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games coming off a double-digit loss. 10* Los Angeles Lakers

Milwaukee clinched a playoff spot last night thanks to its win in Chicago but there is no time for celebration. The Bucks are sitting in fifth place in the Eastern Conference which would mean a first round playoff game with Boston if the season ended today. This is a position the Bucks need and want to keep as avoiding Cleveland, Orlando and Atlanta in the first round is a must. Milwaukee continues to play solid basketball as it is 25-9 over its last 34 games which is one of the best records in the NBA over that span. The Bucks last faced New Jersey on February 10th in New Jersey and they were favored by 5.5 points in that game. Based on the change in venue that should make this line easily double-digits and around the -12 to -13 mark. It is far from that and this number is loaded with value for a team that still will be looking for wins. New Jersey have been playing better there is no doubt as it is 3-3 over its last six games but it continues to struggle on the road where it has lost seven straight and is 4-34 on the season. Milwaukee is 7-2 ATS against the Atlantic Division this season while the Nets are just 11-24 ATS this season as underdogs between 3.5 and 9.5 points. The Bucks run away with this game. 9* Milwaukee Bucks

This is a big revenge game for Indiana as it lost its last meeting to the Knicks by 43 points while New York is coming off an upset win last night over division rival Boston. Those two factors are making Indiana a play for many and the linesmakers seem to be taking this into consideration as this line is simply outrageous. As a comparison, 12 days ago the Knicks were getting 10.5 points in Phoenix and now they are getting 9.5 points in Indiana. That makes absolutely no sense. Granted, the Pacers are playing excellent basketball right now but this is the most points they have been favored by all season long. They were favored by 8.5 points over Washington two weeks ago and while they covered easily, Washington and New York cannot be put into the same grouping. The Knicks and Pacers are separated by one game overall and while this is a meaningless game, contests with two fairly equal teams means a short line and that is certainly not the case here. This will be a very up-tempo game and that favors the team that is getting the points and the Knicks are 26-11 ATS in their last 37 games when the posted total is 210 or more. Also, New York is 14-7 ATS this season as underdogs of seven or more points. 9* New York Knicks

Boston is coming off an upset loss at New York last night and that should get it fired up for this game tonight. The Celtics have been a rollercoaster the last few weeks going on streaks of 1-3, 4-0, 1-3, 6-1 and 1-4. This is not exactly the run you want heading into the playoffs so Boston needs to get some momentum going. Also with this recent 1-4 stretch, the Celtics are just a game behind Atlanta so they should feel fortunate and getting that third seed for the playoffs would be a major accomplishment as they would avoid Cleveland until the Eastern Conference Finals should both advance that far. The remaining schedule is very doable and a 5-0 finish is exactly what this team needs. The Raptors lost last night in Cleveland but suffered a bigger loss as Chris Bosh was hospitalized with facial injuries and his status for the rest of the season is questionable. This is a horrible time for this to happen for the Raptors who are just a game ahead of Chicago for the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. Toronto needs to win as well but now is at a big matchup disadvantage. Boston has owned this series the last two seasons with seven straight wins and gaining the sweep should be no problem tonight. 9* Boston Celtics

This is a huge game for the Jazz and one that they will be ready for in more ways than one. They are coming off a loss at Los Angeles on Friday, the 14th straight loss to the Lakers on the road, and that loss allowed both Dallas and Phoenix to move into a tie for second place with them and the Nuggets in the Western Conference. Most important they are now a half-game from losing home court advantage in the first round of the playoffs and at one point, the home edge looked like a lock. The good news is that after Oklahoma City, Utah faces three non-playoff contenders but there is still an issue as those are on the road so nothing is really safe. The one main thing now is to keep winning on its home floor where it is 31-8 on the season as this is just the second to last game of the season at EnergySolutions Arena for the Jazz. Utah wants to put that horrible effort against the Lakers behind it and with three days off in-between, it gives it an excellent chance to regroup. It wants payback from that but it will also be looking for some payback against Oklahoma City who has taken the first three meetings of the season against the Jazz or in other words, exactly one-ninth of their total losses on the season. They will be ready to avoid the sweep to the Thunder. Oklahoma City has won four straight games as it continues to play exceptionally well. The current streak includes three straight wins on the road including games at Boston and Dallas. The game with the Celtics was against a shorthanded Boston team and the game with Dallas was won thanks to nine more free throw attempts, 38 in total which was an aberration of their normal average of 26.7 per game on the season. They have turned into a very good road team as they are eight games over .500 away from home but I don

This is a lot of points to be putting down but this is a gear situation for Orlando. The Magic are coming off a loss at San Antonio on Friday night so heading home is just what it needs. Orlando has been in this situation 10 other times this season when it lost on the road and played its next game at home as it is 9-1 in those games. The Magic have not lost back-to-back games since January 15th and 18th on the road at the Blazers and Lakers so consecutive losses have been non-existent. This late in the season, despite how good Orlando is, you never know what type of effort you may get but in this case we will see a full-out effort based on the fact that the Magic have not locked anything up as of yet. They lead the Hawks by four games in the Southeast Division so they still need to keep winning to secure the second seed in the Eastern Conference. This is also a revenge game for Orlando which lost to the Grizzlies back in January after blowing a 16-point lead. Memphis is coming off a win over New Orleans which followed three straight losses. The Grizzlies had won seven straight road games but they have since dropped three of their last four and the double-digit pointspread, which may seem appealing, has not been a benefit this season. The Grizzlies are 2-6 ATS as underdogs of nine point or more including 1-6 ATS the last seven times and those six losses have come by an average of 17.7 ppg so they have been outclassed in those games against the NBA

It is fair to say that Phoenix is clearly the better team in this matchup and it is playing better basketball most recent as well but that does not mean it should win this game however. The Suns have won 10 straight games as well as winning six straight games on the road to improve to 21-17 on the road for the season. That is all well and good however these six most recent wins came against teams not in playoff spots with Chicago being the closest of the bunch so while winning, it has been winning against subpar competition. On the season only four of those 21 road wins have come against said playoff competition and to me that is pretty unimpressive. I am a big proponent of playing against streaks when the situation calls for it and it certainly calls for it here. The Suns have won the first four games of this roadtrip is pretty easy fashion but now facing a team with a pulse is something new and something it has not seen since March 21st. Milwaukee is coming off a heartbreaker of a loss last night in Charlotte as it dropped an overtime decision by a single point. Heading home and playing another important game is the perfect remedy for the Bucks as they are 22-14-1 ATS at home this season and 21-11 ATS in all games following a loss. Playing with no rest is not going to hurt this young team as they have been fantastic in these spots all season. Milwaukee is 15-3-1 ATS when playing with no rest and this includes a 9-1 ATS mark when going from the road to playing at home. The only defeat came after a three-point loss at Cleveland and then losing at home to Sacramento next time out and that was no doubt a tough letdown spot. Phoenix has owned this series with three straight season series sweeps as well as taking the first game this season. The Bucks did cover that game and they are now 12-4 ATS this season against teams allowing 103 or more ppg and Phoenix easily fits that criteria. Milwaukee is also 9-2-1 ATS in its last 12 games against teams with a winning record including 4-0-1 ATS in its last five home games against teams with a winning road record. 10* Milwaukee Bucks

Take one look at the Western Conference standings and you see a logjam between second place and fifth place with four teams being just one game of each other. Currently Dallas holds that number two spot but not by much. A couple losses could mean home court until the conference finals as well as not facing the Lakers until the conference finals possibly being both out the door. The Mavericks are in need of a strong close and it has to start tonight against Oklahoma City. Dallas is coming off a rather embarrassing home loss against Orlando on Thursday, the same Orlando team that lost by double-digits last night at San Antonio so the Mavericks will be out for some payback. They will also be out for revenge on the Thunder who won the last meeting at home by 13 points in the first game back from the All-Star break and that one was a tough one for the Mavericks to prepare for. Bouncing back has not been a problem for Dallas which is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games following a double-digit loss at home and I totally expect another big bounceback effort Saturday. Oklahoma City wraps up its short three-game roadtrip after winning the first two against Philadelphia and Boston. That puts the Thunder at a very solid 22-15 on the road for the season but this line looks off in this situation. Oklahoma City was getting five points against Dallas in the last meeting here back in January and not enough has changed to warrant this number coming down by a bucket. Also, the Mavericks were favored by five points over Denver last week, who is a better team than Oklahoma City but this one is a bucket less. This is tremendous line value in my opinion and even though Dallas has been horrible in covering at home it has been excellent in this price range, going 8-4 ATS as favorites of fewer than four points. The Mavericks also fall into a solid contrarian situation. Play against underdogs in the second half of the season after a win by six points or less that are averaging between 98 and 102 ppg going up against favorites that are allowing between 98 and 102 ppg. This situation is 38-13 ATS (74.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 9* Dallas Mavericks

Utah has been on a very solid run as it has won three straight, six of seven and is 18-7 in its last 25 games since its last meeting with the Lakers, a 15-point home loss. While that 25-game run is solid as far as the record goes, looking into those games paints a different picture. Of those 18 wins, 13 came against teams that will not be seeing the postseason although Chicago is still in the hunt. The Jazz are 4-4 in their last eight road games with a win over Toronto being the best of the bunch. The last quality road game came at Phoenix back on March 19th and that resulted in a 10-point loss. Utah was getting 5.5 points in that game, the same amount it is getting tonight against a Lakers team that is five games better than Phoenix so that gives us line value. Part of the reason for the low line is because of the slump the Lakers are in, if you can even call it a slump. Los Angeles is coming off a 2-3 roadtrip including losses in the final two games but again, this came on the road. The Lakers are 32-5 at home which is the best home record in the Western Conference and after playing 11 of the previous 14 games on the road, Staples Center is a welcomed site. Kobe Bryant questioned the intensity of the team prior to the game in Atlanta and the Lakers responded with one of the worst performances of the season. We cashed a ticket in that game and now the Lakers are the team to back as they head home and that sense of urgency is completely different on a team

Orlando is coming off a big win last night in Dallas as it was able to avenge an earlier home loss against the Mavericks. They are definitely playing some of their best basketball right now as they have won three straight games and are 14-2 over their last 16 games. Streaks and runs like this tend to put the public right behind these hot teams and that is one of the reasons for the line value we usual receive in the other direction. Blindly looking at these runs is not the way to go about things and when making a play on the other side, I need to look at the games involved in these runs and in this case, I am unimpressed. Six of those 14 wins came against playoff bound teams, Miami twice, so the schedule has definitely been in its favor. Also, the Magic are 6-1 on the road during this stretch which is no doubt solid but two of those wins came against Philadelphia, another against Washington and another against New Jersey. Despite the exceptional 23-15 record on the road, Orlando has not won two games in a row on the road against teams with a winning record since the end of November. Orlando is 7-8-2 ATS this season when playing with no rest and that includes a 1-3-1 ATS mark when both games are played on the road. San Antonio was off last night following a 17-point victory against Houston on Wednesday, to improve to 8-1 in its last nine home games. The Spurs are 27-11 at home this season which is far from great but this recent run trumps that as this is the best home stretch since a 9-2 run in December and January. Obviously this is the best time to be peaking at home with the playoffs looming and the fact that San Antonio is doing it without Tony Parker is even more impressive. Since the end of February, the Spurs are 13-5 with four of those losses coming against Cleveland, Atlanta, Los Angeles and Orlando. The most recent loss came at New Jersey which came right after a big win in Boston so they can be granted a mulligan. The loss in Orlando was a 26-point blowout so that sets up a monster payback situation and this actually is a triple-revenge spot after San Antonio was swept in the season series a year ago. San Antonio is 21-14-1 ATS as a home favorite this season and it catches a very good price in my opinion despite the fact that Orlando is an underdog after being favored in Dallas last night. The Spurs get their revenge tonight. 9* San Antonio Spurs

Miami is the popular play in this game for obvious reasons as it is the better team overall and is currently making a playoff seeding push. The Heat are sitting in sixth place in the Eastern Conference, a half-game from fifth place but also just three and a half games from eighth place. During this stretch run, these are considered must win games for teams and they are even more heightened when playing against teams that are not in the playoffs. What this does is hike up the line because the public is more apt to back a team that is actually playing for something as opposed to just playing for the season to end. This game goes against that rationale in my opinion. The Heat have won six straight games which is their longest winning streak of the season so that is also playing a role in the line that is set. I personally like to fade these streaks and this one presents a great opportunity. With wins in four straight road games, Miami has improved to a game over .500 on the road and in this league, a road record above the .500 mark is definitely solid. This is the fifth game in nine nights for the Heat with travel involved between each game so fatigue can play a role as well. Indiana is one of the few non-playoff contending teams that is playing very well right now and has not thrown in the towel. The Pacers have won six of their last seven games and have won eight in a row at home which is definitely a surprise to some I

Denver is on one of its worst runs of the season and while that is steering a lot of the public in the other direction, it makes this one even stronger in my opinion. The Nuggets have dropped five of their last six games, the second time this season they have gone on a 1-5 stretch and the last time resulted in a resounding win in that seventh game. I expect the same tonight. Despite this bad run, Denver is just a game and a half behind Utah in the NBA Northwest and just two games behind Dallas for second place in the Western Conference. A run like the one the Nuggets are experiencing could normally really hurt a team but they have been able to hold most of their ground and with five of the next six games being at home, this is where the skid needs to be reversed. The Nuggets are 30-6 at home so coming off this five-game roadtrip is a definite advantage. To their credit, four of the five losses have been against teams that are in the playoffs and are all at least eight games over .500 so while losing it not a good thing, at least it has come against a majority of elite teams. The Nuggets were on an 8-1 run prior to this so they know this can be reversed. While Denver is going through a slump, Portland has been rolling. The Blazers won again last night, in blowout fashion over the Knicks and they are now 14-3 over their last 17 games. They have done it with a mix of wins both home and on the road and against winning and losing teams but it does need to be broken down. Portland is 8-3 in its 11 games during this 17-game span which is very impressive but only one of those wins came against a currently playoff team and while going 7-1 against non-playoff teams, it went 1-2 against the playoff teams, losing to Denver and Phoenix. At home, the Blazers are 6-0 but only one win came against a playoff team so as you can see, the overall schedule has been on their side. It has been a fortunate break and because of it, Portland is back in the hunt for a higher than expected playoff seed. The win last night actually clinched a spot in the playoffs and that can always spell a letdown next time out. Denver is on a 0-8-1 ATS run while Portland is on a 6-1-1 ATS run and that presents value. The Nuggets were favored by seven points at home over the Blazers just three weeks ago and now that line has come down quite a bit. Denver also falls into two contrarian situations because of it. Play on home favorites after failing to cover the number in five or six of their last seven games, in a game involving two teams with winning percentages between 60 and 75 percent. This situation is 41-17 ATS (70.7 percent) over the last five seasons. Also, play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points after having covered the number in five or six of their last seven games, in a game involving two teams with winning percentages between 60 and 75 percent. This situation is 61-26 ATS (70.1 percent) over the last five seasons. The Nuggets are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six home games against teams with a winning road record and they extend that tonight as this horrid run comes to an end. 10* Denver Nuggets

We cashed an ugly ticket with Minnesota on Sunday as the Timberwolves snuck in under the number against Phoenix. This is now the perfect opportunity to feed off that decent game and snap its current 16-game losing streak. A streak like that certainly looks bad and it will keep a lot of the public off the Timberwolves here but that stretch was a brutal one. That game against the Suns was the 14th in that 16-game stretch against teams that will be playing in the postseason. Another game came against Houston, who is not going to be in the postseason but still posses a winning record. The 16th game came against these same Kings in Sacramento and that resulted in a 14-point loss so the Timberwolves will be out seeking some revenge tonight. Four of the last five losses have been by single digits and against playoff teams, those losses were not bad ones. This is the first home game against a non-contending team with a losing record since playing the Knicks way back on January 31st and that game resulted in a win by 21 points. The Timberwolves have actually won two straight home games against teams with a losing record that are not in the playoff chase. While Minnesota is in a big skid, the Kings are not playing much better as they have dropped five straight games including the first four of this five-game roadtrip. This includes losses against New Jersey and Indiana last night. Sacramento is just 7-32 on the road this year and despite a good record against the number, the majority of those ATS wins came when getting a lot of points. The Kings are just 3-9 ATS this season when receiving fewer than four points and they are 5-14 ATS in the 19 games on the year when the line is between +3 and -3. Going back further Sacramento is 9-26 in its last 35 games as an underdog of fewer than five points. Minnesota is trying to avoid a franchise record 17-game losing streak so there is a lot of incentive tonight.

The Lakers enter this game coming off a loss at New Orleans on Monday and the thinking by most will be to ride them in looking to bounce back. In their previous 19 losses this season, Los Angeles is 15-4 the next time out but it is just 9-10 ATS in those games and as a whole, the Lakers have not performed well as underdogs, going 4-6 ATS and 3-7 straight up. Los Angeles is only 16-20-1 ATS on the road and in this price range it includes a 2-5 ATS mark as underdogs of fewer than five points. Last and far from least the Lakers are 7-12 ATS on the road against teams with a winning record. Lakers head coach Phil Jackson canceled practice for the second time in as many cities, perhaps easing up a bit with the knowledge the Lakers won't catch Cleveland for the NBA's best record and also won't get caught by anybody in the Western Conference over the next two weeks. They keep talking about a sense of urgency but in fact, there is no urgency at this point. Atlanta is coming off a home win over Indiana on Sunday so it has had some time off to rest and get ready for this game. The Hawks have been outstanding at home this season going 30-7 including eight straight wins with half of those coming against playoff bound teams so they have been playing some stiff competition. Atlanta has actually been at its best when playing the best as it the Hawks are 10-2 ATS this season against teams with a winning percentage greater than .700. Atlanta is all but done in catching Orlando in the Southeast Division but that does not mean it is going to coast the rest of the way. Following its win over Indiana, the Hawks seem to be the team wanting to play with that sense of urgency.

Motivation is a huge factor in the NBA and Phoenix better have plenty of it over the next few days. The Suns didn

The Lakers have won two of their first three games of this roadtrip but this is the fourth game in six nights and despite the day off on Sunday, the spot is not ideal especially as a considerable road favorite. Los Angeles was favored by six points in its last game at Houston and while the number is the same here, I do not think it is a proper similarity. Both Houston and New Orleans are similar in records but not similar in personnel. The Rockets have been recently decimated with injuries and that has led to a four-game losing streak while the Hornets have actually gotten a key contributor back in Chris Paul. New Orleans has lost its last two games, both at home, but chemistry is to blame and New Orleans still comes in with a solid 22-14 record at home, the same record on the road for the Lakers yet the Hornets are getting a half-dozen points. New Orleans is 8-7 ATS as a home underdog this season which is not great but it is 4-1 ATS in its last five home games against teams with a road winning percentage greater than .600. The Lakers meanwhile are 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 games as a favorite and that points to being overvalued. The return of Paul has not done much for New Orleans as he has been pretty much non-existent. He has played 31 minutes in each of the last two games but has scored just five and seven points in those two games. He has dished out 17 assists but the scoring threat isn