Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-17-12 | Cleveland Cavaliers v. Detroit Pistons -7 | Top | 77-116 | Win | 100 | 21 h 59 m | Show |
The Cavaliers were on a 1-12 run with its only won coming against New Jersey but since then it has gone a respectable 3-4 in its last seven games but those victories came against Toronto, Charlotte and Washington. The last four victories have come against the four worst teams in the NBA, not counting themselves. Granted Detroit is just above that list but he Pistons have at least been more consistent for a longer period of time. The big problem now is that injuries continue to be a big issue.
Cavaliers Kyrie Irving and Anderson Varejao are listed as questionable but according to the Cleveland blog 'Fear the Sword', neither will be in action on Tuesday and the possibility of both sitting out the rest of the season is a definite possibility. These are two huge absences that affect both the frontcourt, as Varejao has been out for quite some time, and the backcourt as Irving has missed his last eight games after averaging 18.8 ppg and 5.7 apg in a sensational rookie season. As mention the Pistons have been playing better and more consistent even though they are just a game and a half better than the Cavaliers. Through its first game in February, Detroit went 4-20 to open the season but it has gone a pretty solid 18-18 since then despite a recent rough stretch that has seen it go 1-5 over its last six games but those five losses all came against teams either in the playoffs or right on the cusp of getting a spot. There is where Detroit has had the most success, going 9-3 when favored. The Pistons won the last meeting so that sets up a revenge spot for the Cavaliers but they have been horrible in that role as they are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games revenging a loss where they scored 85 or fewer points. Also, Cleveland is 0-4 ATS in its last four road games against teams with a winning home record while the Pistons are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games against teams with a winning percentage of less than .400. On top of that, Detroit is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 home games coming off a home loss. 10* (504) Detroit Pistons |
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04-16-12 | Miami Heat v. New Jersey Nets +8.5 | Top | 101-98 | Win | 100 | 22 h 8 m | Show |
We won with Miami on Sunday as the Heat used a late surge to pull away from the Knicks late and grab a very important road win. It didn't do much in the standings but it game them confidence going forward in what has been a rough stretch of road games. Expect those struggles to come back into play Monday as Miami is in a prime letdown spot following the nationally televised game at MSG. Not only that, this is the Heat's fourth game in five nights.
Not much has gone right for New Jersey this season as injuries have been a big part of the reason why it has struggles so much. While the Nets are sitting at a dismal 22-39 on the season, they are a very respectable 7-5 over their last 12 games and while most of those wins have come against some bad teams, we aren't asking them to win here. This point spread is based on the fact it is New Jersey against Miami and is not taking into consideration the situation that is in place that the Heat have to deal with. There are only six games left on the schedule for New Jersey and it is probably a safe bet to assume that the Nets want this season over as quick as possible. That being said, a win over Miami would be huge and that provides enough motivation for New Jersey to show up on Monday. The Heat won the first two meetings this season by 11 and 30 points so revenge comes into play as well. If there is a team on the floor that is expected to be the more motivated, it isn't going to be Miami. Miami has been solid this season against the bottom teams in the NBA as it has won 20 of 24 games against teams ranked below the top 16 but the role of road favorite has been sketchy as best as it is 13-14 ATS as a road chalk this season and the cover against the Knicks Sunday was just the fourth cover in their last 10 games in that spot. The Heat are just 7-10 ATS this season when playing with no rest including a 4-7 ATS record when that second game is on the road. 10* (710) New Jersey Nets |
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04-15-12 | Miami Heat -3 v. New York Knicks | Top | 93-85 | Win | 100 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
The Knicks are playing good basketball right now and because of that we are catching a solid line with Miami. They have a nine-game home winning streak and are 7-3 in their past 10 games and they are in a fight with Philadelphia for seventh place with Milwaukee sitting just 2.5 games back in ninth place. That makes all of these games important for New York but the feeling here is that it simply cannot match up and it has struggled against the top teams, going 6-12 against the top 10.
Miami is still keeping a slim hope alive for first place in the Eastern Conference but that is likely not going to happen. Many can argue that the Heat may take the final portion of the regular season to rest and get more healthy but they are not going to be taking that approach at all. "The most important thing for us is we're trying to get an optimal level of play where we're playing at a high level," Heat coach Erik Spoelstra said. "We're not there yet, particularly on the road." That is important to hear as Miami needs to head into the playoffs with some momentum and confidence as it is just 6-6 over its last 12 games and that is not a record of a championship caliber team. The Heat's road struggles are pretty well documented but the teams that they have been losing to are all in the upper half of the playoff seedings and while no losses are good losses, at least they are against powerful opponents. Miami is 29-9 against teams ranked outside the top 10. The Heat should have Dwyane Wade and Udonis Haslem back after Miami used Friday's rout of Charlotte to rest Wade's minor injuries and Haslem's bad stomach. New York has lost both regular season meetings this season and rather handily, both taking place in Miami. That sets up a revenge spot but not a good one as we play against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are revenging a loss against an opponent after a cover as a double digit favorite. This situation is 64-32 ATS (66.7 percent) since 1996. 10* (501) Miami Heat |
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04-14-12 | Indiana Pacers +3.5 v. Milwaukee Bucks | Top | 105-99 | Win | 100 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
We played on the Pacers in this same matchup exactly three weeks ago and we will again be backing Indiana tonight. The Pacers easily defeated Cleveland last night for the home-and-home sweep and because the game was in hand early in the second half, players did not log a lot of minutes as no one played more than 27 minutes. They have now won three straight games and are also three games in front of Boston for third place in the Eastern Conference standings with seven games remaining.
Milwaukee cashed an easy ticket for us last night as it fell behind early but rallied late in the first quarter and pulled away in the third to win by 16 points. The Bucks kept pace in the playoff race for the eighth position as they trail the Knicks and Sixers by two games so this is a big one tonight but a 'must win' doesn't mean it turns out that way. Milwaukee improved to 9-3-1 ATS as a road favorite with that victory over the Pistons but the home floor is a different story as the Bucks are only 6-10 ATS as a home chalk. Playing with no rest has been a struggle for the Bucks as they are 7-12 both straight up and ATS and this includes a dismal 3-7 straight up record and 2-8 ATS mark when playing at home following a road game. While the Pacers have been average in the second game of a back-to-back set, they are actually at their best when they go from home to play on the road. It was the same in that last meeting as the Bucks played on the road and Pacers played at home the previous night. It resulted in a 21-point Indiana win. The Pacers are coming off a strong game offensively against the Cavaliers and they have topped the 100-point plateau in eight of their last nine games after doing so in just six of their previous 15 games. Indiana is 5-2 ATS over this recent stretch when surpassing 100 points. This is obviously a revenge game for Milwaukee but it has not been a strong payback team this season, going just 11-20 ATS revenging a previous loss. Also, Milwaukee is 0-5 ATS in its last five games following a double-digit win. 10* (711) Indiana Pacers |
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04-13-12 | Milwaukee Bucks -4.5 v. Detroit Pistons | Top | 113-97 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
Time is running out on Milwaukee. The Bucks lost a very crucial game on Wednesday against the Knicks as they blew a four-point lead going into the fourth quarter by getting outscored by eight points en route to a four-point loss. The loss put Milwaukee two games behind New York for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference and with just eight games left, every game is becoming more and more critical. With Indiana on deck tomorrow night, this one is big.
Detroit snapped a three-game losing streak with a win last night at Charlotte but a win over the Bobcats is not saying a whole lot. The Pistons have not quit on this season after a horrendous start and that shows a lot of character but this is not a good situation for Friday. The Pistons are 7-10 over their last 17 games which isn't horrible but of those seven wins, six came against Charlotte (twice), Washington (twice), Cleveland and Sacramento. There has been only one win against a winning team since early March. The Bucks are two games under .500 so putting them in the role of a road favorite may not seem justified but they have handled it very well this season. Overall, they have a winning ATS record on the road and in 12 games as a road favorite, Milwaukee is 9-3 straight up and 8-3-1 ATS so it has been very successful. The Pistons meanwhile are playing with no rest and while they have been strong in this scenario this season, they are just 1-3 ATS when going from the road to home. The home team has won and covered the first three meetings this season so Milwaukee will be looking to buck that trend here, no pun intended. It does set up well as they Bucks are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games and they are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games against teams with a losing record. Detroit meanwhile has been just above average when coming off a win this season but going back further, it is 7-22 ATS in its last 29 games coming off a double-digit win. 10* (517) Milwaukee Bucks |
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04-12-12 | Memphis Grizzlies v. San Antonio Spurs -5.5 | Top | 97-107 | Win | 100 | 14 h 14 m | Show |
We won with Memphis last night and despite a lot of the same scenarios being in play tonight, the Grizzlies are in a strong play against spot. Memphis has won four straight games to inch closer to the fourth spot in the Western Conference standings but the last three have come at home where they have been significantly better. Their last two road wins came at Oklahoma City and Miami so the Grizzlies have defeated some strong teams away from home but tonight will be different.
The Spurs had won 11 straight games before losing at Utah on Monday when part of the teams didn't even travel but they lost at home last night and were pretty much embarrassed against a Kobe Bryant-less Lakers team. San Antonio is now 23-5 at home and had won eight in a row before last night. Losing consecutive games has been rare as well as the Spurs have not dropped back-to-back games since late January and before Wednesday, they had been 6-0 in their last six games after a loss. The game at Utah on Monday was played with no rest and that is why a lot of the starters didn't even travel and it is pretty well known that the Spurs have not been a great team when playing with no rest. However, they are 8-7-1 ATS in that role this season which is far from horrible and this includes a perfect 2-0 ATS record when both games are played at home. Those second game winners came by 22 points against Dallas and 12 points against New Orleans. San Antonio has won the first three meetings this season and while Memphis will be looking to get a win, similar to what Utah wanted to do after losing the first three meetings, the Grizzlies will find it much more challenging. They have been great with no rest but are just 3-2 ATS when the first of the back-to-back games was at home. Memphis is 5-12 ATS in its last 17 road games against teams with a home winning percentage of .600 or better while the Spurs are 11-1-1 ATS in their last 13 games after a non-cover. 10* (708) San Antonio Spurs |
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04-11-12 | New York Knicks v. Milwaukee Bucks -4 | Top | 111-107 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
The Knicks are coming off a tough loss last night in Chicago as they led early but could not withstand a big Chicago run in the second quarter. The Bulls avenged an overtime loss in New York two nights prior so it was not a good spot for the Knicks and tonight's is not much better. New York fell to 10-18 on the road on the season and despite a recent run where they had gone 11-3 in its previous before Chicago, only six of those games came on the road.
Milwaukee was rolling along with four straight wins until Oklahoma City came to town and put it to the Bucks by 20 points two nights ago. They are still very much alive in the playoff hunt and the big trades that took part a couple weeks ago are paying off as the Bucks are 13-5 over their last 18 games. Milwaukee is just one game out of the eighth spot in the Eastern Conference standings and the team in front of it happens to be the Knicks which makes this one pretty big. The Bucks will be pretty focused here as coming off the loss to the Thunder should be motivation enough but they lost to the Knicks toward the end of March in New York and it was one of those games they got a bad feeling from. New York was sent to the free throw line 35 times compared to just 18 times for Milwaukee so the home cooking was in full effect. Milwaukee has won 10 of 15 games this season as a home favorite and the revenge situation makes it that much stronger. New York may be 10-8 ATS this season when playing with no rest but the Knicks have not fared well in these spots as they have gone 1-4 ATS in their second of back-to-back games when both games have been on the road. The Bucks are 23-6 ATS in their last 29 games against the Atlantic Division while going 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a loss. Despite the recent home win over Milwaukee, the Knicks are just 2-12 ATS in the last 14 meetings in this series. 10* (508) Milwaukee Bucks |
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04-10-12 | Boston Celtics v. Miami Heat -7 | Top | 115-107 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
Miami is coming off a win over Detroit on Sunday which was the perfect setup in getting prepared for this big rematch against the Celtics. This is the third of four meetings with Boston and the Heat are out to avenge their worst loss of the season after losing by 19 points to start the month. This is very similar to a previous scenario as Miami lost at Oklahoma City in late March, which was their worst loss of the season at the time, and came back to win and cover in the home rematch.
We won with the Celtics in their last game as they easily took care of the Sixers in a double-revenge scenario. Now that revenge is going the other way. Boston has been playing much better late in the season but it still is having trouble against the NBA elite even though it did defeat Miami earlier. The Celtics are only 5-15 this season against teams ranked in the top ten in the NBA. Miami meanwhile is 26-9 against teams ranked outside the top 10 and that is where Boston falls. The Celtics are 12-15 on the road this season but five of those have come against Washington, Cleveland and Charlotte, the three worst teams in the NBA. This will be another stiff test as Miami brings in a 24-3 home record and while all three losses were questionable ones, the situation was not as favorable. Boston is just 2-6-1 ATS in its last nine games as a road underdog between 5.0 and 10.5 points and it has covered just one of the last five meetings in Miami. Miami has a huge game at Chicago on deck for Thursday but it knows it has to take care of business here and because of the previous meeting, there will be no lack of motivation. The Heat fall into a great revenge situation as we play on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are revenging a same season loss with that opponent coming off a win by 20 points or more over a division rival. This situation is 41-13 ATS (75.9 percent) since 1996. Boston is 6-19 ATS in its last 25 games after a win by 15 or more points. 10* (704) Miami Heat |
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04-09-12 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Memphis Grizzlies -4.5 | Top | 85-94 | Win | 100 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
This is a big game for both sides as Los Angeles is looking to tie the Lakers for the Pacific Division lead while Memphis is looking to inch its way up the Western Conference standings. The Grizzlies trail San Antonio by 8.5 games in the Southwest Division so while that race is done, they are only a game and a half out of fourth place in the conference and the team they trails happens to be the Clippers. Picking up a game with a win here tonight would be a bog move.
Los Angeles is red hot right now as it has won eight of its last nine games but the schedule has set up very well. The Clippers had to leave the state only once over that stretch, a trip to Dallas, and six of those wins came against teams that are currently on the outside of the playoff picture. Only two games in the nine-game stretch were on the road and despite winning both, the Clippers are 3-5 in their last eight road games and have a trip to Oklahoma City on deck in what is a big revenge game. Speaking of revenge, the start of this Clipper run was at the expense of Memphis as the Grizzlies lost in Los Angeles by 16 points just over two weeks ago. They fell behind by 16 points after the first quarter, trailed by as many as 22 points and never had a chance. That was the last game of a three-game losing streak and since then, Memphis has gone 7-2 so while the Clippers are hot, the Grizzlies are not far behind. Even more impressive is that six of those nine games were on the road. Memphis has been solid in these spots in the past as it is 29-14 ATS in its last 43 games revenging a loss where the opponent scored 100 or more points. The Grizzlies are also 27-15 ATS in their last 42 home games following a win and 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games in the second half of the season against teams with a winning record. The Clippers meanwhile are just 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games following a double-digit win while going 7-18 ATS in their last 25 games after scoring 105 or more points. 10* (510) Memphis Grizzlies |
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04-08-12 | Philadelphia 76ers v. Boston Celtics -4 | Top | 79-103 | Win | 100 | 9 h 37 m | Show |
It is pretty well documented that the Celtics have not fared well when playing on no rest. Well, they are coming off a game last night in Indiana in which they won going away so now they head home in search of wins on consecutive nights. While Boston is 5-11 ATS this season in the second game of a back-to-back set, this situation is actually a good one. The Celtics are a perfect 5-0 straight up and 3-2 ATS when going from the road and coming back home for that second game.
The Sixers have hit the skids. They once looked like they were going to run away with the Atlantic Division but after slumping and Boston catching fire, things have certainly gone the other way. The Sixers are not playing very good and haven't been for close to two months now, going just 9-17 over their last 26 games following a loss at home last night to Orlando, which was slumping with five straight losses. The road has been tough on Philadelphia as it is 3-10 over its last 13 games on the highway. Boston has built a two-game lead in the Atlantic Division and this game is meaningful to both sides as the Celtics can stretch out a comfortable lead while the Sixers can cut the lead to one game. The Celtics will be a hungry team tonight though as they will be looking for payback from two losses in Philadelphia from earlier this season which included one by 32 points. Boston is 19-9 at home this season and this is the first home game since that gut wrenching loss to the Spurs. The Celtics have been very tough at home lately as they are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight home games while going 6-0 ATS in their last six home games against teams with a losing road record. The Sixers meanwhile are 0-6 ATS in their last six games when playing with no rest while going 7-20 ATS in their last 27 games against teams with a winning record. This has been part of the reason that the Sixers are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games as underdogs of fewer than five points. 10* (706) Boston Celtics |
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04-07-12 | Portland Trailblazers v. Milwaukee Bucks -4.5 | Top | 94-116 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
Portland is coming off a rare win last night as it took overtime to defeat the Mavericks. It was rare in the fact that the Blazers have won two straight games which is the first time this has happened since late January as they were an atrocious 0-15 in their last 15 games following a victory prior to last night. They have won three straight games only once all season and those happened to be their first three games of the year, all of which took place at home. They are 0-3 straight up and ATS after two straight wins.
The Bucks have had trouble the last two games against some bad teams but they have been able to walk away with victories. They blew a big lead against Cleveland but held on and last night, they blew another big lead but were able to hold off the lowly Hornets. Milwaukee has won three straight and is 12-4 over its last 16 games as it continues to make its playoff push. The Bucks trail the Knicks by only one game in the Eastern Conference and with games against the Thunder and Knicks on deck, this one is big . Milwaukee has not been very good this season when playing with no rest, going 6-12 both straight up and against the number but this is the first time there has been no travel involved as the Bucks plays consecutive home games for the first time this season. Portland meanwhile is just 1-4 straight up and 2-3 against the spread when playing consecutive road games with no rest. The situation is even tougher here following a win that needed overtime. This is a revenge game for Portland as it was blown out at home earlier this season but that means little here, especially on the road. Plus the Blazers are 2-14 ATS in their last 16 games revenging a loss when the opponent scored 110 or more points. Also, Portland is 0-7 ATS following two or more consecutive covers this season while going 3-14 ATS in its last 17 games as an underdog of fewer than five points. Milwaukee is 8-1 ATS this season following a win by six points or less. 10* (512) Milwaukee Bucks |
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04-06-12 | Oklahoma City Thunder -3.5 v. Indiana Pacers | Top | 98-103 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
While laying road chalk in the NBA is never a fun thing to do, sometimes it is advisable and that is the case here. Following a home loss against Memphis, Oklahoma City went on the road and lost at the revenge-minded Heat on Wednesday which was just its second time all season that it has lost consecutive games. You have to go back to February of last season to find the last time the Thunder has lost three in a row and despite the loss to Miami, they are 11-2 straight up and 10-3 ATS after a loss.
Indiana has won three straight games to move to 12 games over .500 and remain in third place in the Eastern Conference. The victories came against Washington and two teams at the bottom end of the playoff picture and while Pacers do own a win over Miami from last week, defeating the elite teams has been extremely rare this season. Since February 7th, they are 14-14 and of those 14 wins, only four have come against teams in current playoff positions while 11 of the 14 losses came against postseason teams. The Thunder are now two games behind Chicago for best record in the NBA with home court advantage given in the Finals to that team with the best overall record but Oklahoma City has more important things to worry about right now. It is ahead of San Antonio by just a game in the Western Conference so what seemed like a coasting into the playoffs as the top seed, the Thunder are far from safe so this has turned into a very important game as the season winds down. Indiana is just 6-20 ATS in its last 26 games after covering the spread in two or more consecutive games while going 1-4 ATS in its last five home games against teams with a winning percentage greater that .600. Oklahoma City falls into a fantastic situation as well as we play on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are allowing opponents to shoot 43 percent or less on the season going up against an opponent after a game where it shot 55 percent or better. This situation is 59-29 ATS (67 percent) since 1996. 10* (701) Oklahoma City Thunder |
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04-05-12 | Boston Celtics v. Chicago Bulls -6 | Top | 86-93 | Win | 100 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
The early Thursday lines in the NBA are scarce but a couple places do have the Bulls at -6 as an opener so we are basing this play based on that number, give or take it a little bit either way. Depending on the status of Derrick Rose, it could move more but that really is not a concern here. Chicago needs this game in a big way as it has lost two straight games, the first time this has occurred in the regular season since early February of last season. The Bulls haven't lost three straight regular season games since March, 2010.
The Celtics enter this game off a loss as well but theirs is a totally different matter as it came against the Spurs last night and it ended up being an agonizing loss. Boston lost by a single point after making a huge second half rally as it held the Spurs to just 28 second half points. That loss, along with the fatigue from that defensive effort, will carry over into tonight and it will be tough to recover from even though it is a game against Chicago. Boston is just 11-14 on the road this season. Playing with no rest has been an issue for the aging Celtics as they are just 5-10 ATS this season in the second night of a back-to-back set. To their credit, they have performed very well when that second game is at home as they are a perfect 5-0 straight up but when having to play on the road, it is a totally different matter as Boston is 2-8 straight up and against the number and this includes records of 1-4 straight up and ATS when it is back-to-back road games. Chicago still owns the best record in the NBA but after the two losses, it has shrunk to a game and a half while its lead in the Eastern Conference is only two games over Miami. With a home-and-home against Knicks on deck with a game against Miami right after, this is a pretty big game for the Bulls. They are 11-1 straight up and 8-4 ATS following a loss this season and they are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 Thursday games and since they are usually in a TV game, they definitely relish the spotlight. 10* (506) Chicago Bulls |
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04-04-12 | Toronto Raptors +8.5 v. Philadelphia 76ers | Top | 99-78 | Win | 100 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
We played on the Sixers last night and they lost but ended up covering in a hard fought game against Miami, a team they desperately wanted to beat but once again came up short. Philadelphia is in must win mode now as it trails the Celtics by a game and a half in the Atlantic Division but must win does not necessarily translate into a cover, especially at this price. The Sixers have been solid following a loss this year and have been good at covering the big number but this is not a good spot for them.
Toronto has won two straight games as well as three of its last four and despite sitting well outside the playoff picture, the Raptors continue to fight. They compare very similar to Golden St. which is playing for nothing but continues to compete as the season winds down. Toronto is coming off a five-game homestand following a win last night against Charlotte and while it is 8-18 straight up on the highway this season, it is 15-11 ATS in those games which shows some undervaluation. There should be a lot of extra energy in the tank for the Raptors as they will be out for some payback following a 35-point loss suffered here in January. Obviously road revenge is not a very strong angle because of the big advantage that the home floor usually provides however staying within this number is more than realistic. And let's face it, the Sixers are not playing very good and haven't been for close to two months now, going just 9-15 over their last 24 games. Toronto has fared well against the top teams of late, going 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 games against teams with a winning record while going 4-0 ATS in its last four road games against teams with a winning percentage greater than .600. The Sixers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games when playing with no rest and they are 0-2 ATS this season when playing with no rest and heading home following a road game. Toronto looks for revenge and winning outright is far from out of the question. 10* (703) Toronto Raptors |
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04-03-12 | Philadelphia 76ers +9 v. Miami Heat | Top | 93-99 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
After a 4-6 stretch, the Sixers are now looking up at Boston in the Atlantic Division, thus dropping from third place in the Eastern Conference all the way down to seventh place. This is not a spot they want to be in as it would set up a first round playoff matchup with the Heat. Philadelphia was handled rather easily in the first round of the playoffs last season by Miami and it has lost the first three meetings this season, making it 11 straight regular season losses against the Heat.
This game is more than revenge as it sets up pretty similar to the Memphis game last night where the Grizzlies were trying to avoid a 4-0 season series sweep. That they did. It helped that the Thunder may have been caught looking ahead to playing Miami on Wednesday and now that role can be reversed as the Heat could very well be looking forward to playing Oklahoma City tomorrow night as they will be out to avenge their 16-point loss just over a week ago which at the time was their biggest loss of the season. Miami is coming off a loss on Sunday at Boston so it will be looking to get back into the win column but with tomorrow's big game on deck, don't expect Miami to expend a lot of energy here. The Heat are just 8-5 straight up and 7-6 ATS following a loss which is nothing special so expecting a big bounceback here should not be the case. Miami is no doubt strong at home, going 21-2 but it is just 12-11 ATS which shows how overvalued the Heat are when playing on their home floor. The last meeting took place in Philadelphia and Miami was able to grab the win and the cover but the situation was different as a focused Heat team was just coming off a four-game losing streak. The Sixers could use this win just like Memphis did last night and that is to prove that they can actually win against the elite. The Heat are just 6-16 ATS in their 22 home games over the last two seasons coming off one or more consecutive losses while going 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games against teams with a winning record. 10* (659) Philadelphia 76ers |
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04-01-12 | Chicago Bulls +6 v. Oklahoma City Thunder | Top | 78-92 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 33 m | Show |
Oklahoma City has won five straight games, easily covering the spread in four of those. That included a win at Los Angeles against the Lakers in their last game on Thursday and while it certainly is not going to be a letdown, a win like that can add value to the other side. The way the Thunder have been covering makes it impossible to not overadjust this line and while they have been solid at home, they are 4-10 ATS as favorites between 3.0 and 6.5 points.
The Bulls continue to keep winning despite the absence of Derrick Rose. They have gone 7-2 in his recent absence which shows how much of a team this is as opposed to one special player making the difference. The defense is stifling as they have allowed 82 points or fewer in five of their last seven gems including all three road games where they have allowed an average of just 72.7 ppg over those contests. While Chicago has one of the best home courts in the NBA, its 21-6 road record is easily the best in the league. This is a big game for both sides as home court advantage throughout the playoffs is the goal for both sides with Chicago possessing a two-game lead over the Thunder at the moment. Oklahoma City can obviously cut that in half here but can it do so by covering this big number as well? It is rare for the Bulls to be getting points but they have taken advantage as they are a perfect 5-0 ATS this season as underdogs which includes a perfect 4-0 ATS record on the road. While Oklahoma City is 22-4 at home, it is just 1-8 ATS in its last nine home games against teams with a winning road record which clearly shows overvalued numbers. The Bulls meanwhile are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games against teams with a winning record and fall into a situation where we play against favorites after beating the spread by 18 or more points total in their last three games, in a game involving two teams with winning percentages more than 75 percent. This situation is 26-6 ATS (81.2 percent) since 1996. 10* (501) Chicago Bulls |
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03-31-12 | Memphis Grizzlies +2.5 v. Milwaukee Bucks | Top | 99-95 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
Milwaukee is coming off a cakewalk last night as it won in Cleveland by 37 points and now returns home sitting in ninth place in the Eastern Conference, a game and a half behind the Knicks for the final playoff spot. That makes this and every game big for the Bucks which are three games under .500 overall and just a game over .500 at home. Even though the starters saw limited action last night because of the blowout win, playing the second of back-to-back nights is not in their favor.
Milwaukee is 6-11 overall this season when playing with no rest and it has been horrible in this scenario, going 3-10 ATS when that first game is on the road including 2-7 ATS when traveling from the road to back home. We won with a very similar scenario exactly one week ago as the Bucks won in Charlotte by 20 points on Friday night and then lost at home against Indiana by 21 points as short favorites. They have beaten up on the bad teams but the Bucks are just 9-20 against teams ranked in the NBA's top 16. After two straight win, the Grizzlies lost last night in Houston and it was a very costly loss as they saw the Rockets and Nuggets close to within a half-game of them for sixth place in the Western Conference standings. Memphis is just a game and a half out of ninth place so nothing is secure making the situation pretty similar to that of Milwaukee where every game is getting more and more important. The Grizzlies are 9-3 ATS playing with no rest including an impressive 3-1 ATS in back-to-back road games. While those numbers are impressive for this season, going back further reveals an incredible run as Memphis is 23-4 ATS in its last 27 games when playing with no rest and a lot of that comes down to coaching. Under head coach Lionel Hollins, the Grizzlies are 31-15 ATS as road underdogs of less than six points and while Memphis has struggled somewhat within its own conference, it has beaten up on the Eastern Conference, going 10-3 straight up and 8-4-1 ATS. 10* (809) Memphis Grizzlies |
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03-30-12 | New York Knicks v. Atlanta Hawks -3.5 | Top | 90-100 | Win | 100 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
After losing in Milwaukee on Tuesday in a big revenge situation for the Bucks, the Hawks came home and laid a bigger egg against Chicago on Wednesday as they lost by 21 points. The two-game losing skid comes after winning four straight games and Atlanta is now sitting in sixth place in the Eastern Conference playoff race. The Hawks are in great shape to remain in the postseason as falling to ninth is unlikely but their goal is to catch Orlando for the third spot which they trail by just two and a half games.
The Knicks are coming off a laugher of a win over Orlando as they led by as many as 39 points and cruised to a 22-point victory. It was their eighth win in their last nine games, all of which have been under the watch of interim head coach Mike Woodson, so they are playing their best basketball of the season. Only three of those nine games, including the lone loss, came on the road however and New York is just 9-15 on the highway this season including a 4-10 record as an underdog. New York isn't without its problems though as Amare Stoudemire is out for a few weeks with a back issue while Jeremy Lin is still bothered by a bad knee. Granted, they have looked great the last two games without either of them but the matchup is not a great one here that takes place on the road and not only is Atlanta looking to get back into the win column, doing it against the Knicks would be even better. New York won the only meeting so far this season by 17 points so the Hawks will be out for payback. That revenge spot hooks the Hawks up in a terrific revenge situation as we play on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points revenging a road loss against an opponent that is coming off a home win by 20 points or more. This situation is 37-13 ATS (74 percent) over the last five seasons. As mentioned, playing on the road has been rare lately for the Knicks and they are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 roadies while the Hawks are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games against teams scoring 100 or more points last game. 10* (510) Atlanta Hawks |
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03-29-12 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Los Angeles Lakers -1 | Top | 102-93 | Loss | -102 | 26 h 18 m | Show |
Oklahoma City is coming off a win in Portland that was what we were hoping for prior to this game as the Thunder have been one of the best teams following a loss this season, going 11-1 straight up and 10-2 against the number. They do own the best road record in the Western Conference but now they face a team with tied for the second best home record and the fact that the Lakers lost their last home game against Memphis, it makes the play even better for the home side.
The Lakers are 20-4 at home on the season and they have yet to drop consecutive home games this season as they are 3-0 at home following a loss in their previous home game. They are coming off a win at Golden St. on Tuesday which upped their lead in the Pacific Division to 2.5 games over the Clippers and keeping that edge is important for the playoffs in getting at least one round on their home floor. The Lakers have covered five of their last seven games against teams with a winning percentage greater than .600. One of the big stories here is the return of Derek Fisher who is now in a Thunder uniform after getting traded to Houston which resulted in a buyout. His presence will allow Oklahoma city to possibly get some inside info on the Lakers but to be honest, it is safe to say they know them pretty well already. Fisher likely won't get much done on the floor as even though the Thunder are 4-0 since he got there, he is averaging only 3.8 ppg and shooting just 22.7 percent from the floor in a backup role. Oklahoma City's last win came in Portland by 14 points and it is just 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games following a double-digit win. The Lakers will be out for some payback here as well as they lost in Oklahoma City by 15 points in the first meeting this season last month. The Lakers fall into a great situation as well as we play on favorites that are allowing opponents to shoot 43 percent or better on the season going up against an opponent after a making 55 percent of their shots or better. This situation is 87-44 ATS (66.4 percent) since 1996. 10* (708) Los Angeles Lakers |
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03-28-12 | Phoenix Suns v. Los Angeles Clippers -6.5 | Top | 86-103 | Win | 100 | 14 h 12 m | Show |
The Clippers had dropped three straight games on the road at Indiana, Oklahoma City and New Orleans and the fans wanted head coach Vinny Del Negro's head. They have won their last two games since then and all is well again. That is until another losing streak starts but it won't start here as Los Angeles needs to continue to dominate on its home floor where it is 17-8 on the season, including wins in four straight games. The Clippers have inched back to within two games of the Lakers heading into Tuesday.
Phoenix has got to be the biggest surprise in the Western Conference right now as slow start left the Suns way back in the standings and trade talk abounded about Steve Nash leaving town. But the Suns have gone 13-5 over their last 18 games and they are within a game and a half of eighth place in the Western Conference standings. It is unlikely Phoenix makes a legitimate push into the postseason as it has trouble on the road still, going 3-3 over that 18-game stretch. A home-heavy schedule has definitely helped. Surprisingly, this is only the second time this season that the Suns have had to play consecutive games with the first game taking place at home and the second game taking place on the road. Coincidentally, that second game was at the Clippers just 12 days ago which resulted in a win as they were getting nine points. The line is much lower now even though that was only two weeks ago. Los Angeles has not bee able to solve Phoenix this year as it has lost both meetings, setting up double revenge. The Clippers have actually dropped four straight and nine of 10 in this series so it has been an ongoing issue but this was mostly when Phoenix was elite and the Clippers were bottom-feeders. Los Angeles currently holds down the all-important fourth position in the Western Conference so holding onto that home court edge means taking care of home court now. Seven of their final ten games are on the road so every game in Los Angeles means something and with only eight left, it is getting to be crunch time. 10* (520) Los Angeles Clippers |
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03-28-12 | Detroit Pistons v. Cleveland Cavaliers +1 | Top | 87-75 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
Cleveland has lost four straight games and seven of its last eight following a big loss last night in Philadelphia in a game the Cavaliers were never in. they have been blown out in their last three games while five of the last six losses have come by double-digits but it should be noted that all five of those games came against teams currently in the playoffs or right on the outside fighting for a position. Cleveland is 5-5 as a favorite this season and the two ATS losses it won outright were only by a combined 1.5 points.
The Pistons had dropped five straight games before defeating Washington in it their last game by a bucket on the road. That was just Detroit's fifth road win of the season as it is an even .500 at home but 15 games under .500 on the highway. The road victories have been average at best as of those five wins, four came against Washington as mentioned, New Jersey, Sacramento and Toronto, all of which have worse records than the Cavaliers. How the Pistons won in Boston is still a mystery. The Cavaliers are actually in a favorable back-to-back spot here. Cleveland is just 6-7 ATS when playing with no rest this season but it has been at its worst when that first game took place at hone as it is 2-6 ATS but when the first game is on the highway, the Cavaliers are 4-1 ATS in the next game including 3-1 ATS when they go from the road to back home. Cleveland was on a 3-1 run at home before losing seven of its last eight and this is the perfect opportunity to turn that around. The Pistons are just 4-20 as road underdogs and with the size of this line, another loss also most likely means a non-cover as we are getting good value with the home team. Detroit is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 games after having lost four of their last five games so bad runs have been contagious. Cleveland has won the first two meetings this season and four straight overall so this is one team the Cavaliers have had success against. They are 10-4 ATS over the last 14 meetings. 10* (504) Cleveland Cavaliers |
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03-27-12 | Houston Rockets +7.5 v. Dallas Mavericks | Top | 81-90 | Loss | -102 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
Heading into Monday, Houston is tied with Denver and Utah for two of the final three playoff spots in the Western Conference so there is little room for error. After a five-game losing streak, the Rockets have gone 5-4 to stay in the hunt but they are in a crucial part of their schedule as this is part of five of the next seven games taking place on the road. They have been decent playing with no rest, going 10-7 ATS and they have an edge in the series as the road team have covered the last four meetings.
Dallas snapped a two-game winning streak with a win over the Rockets on Saturday at Houston which sets up a home-and-home as the Mavericks look to get closer to fourth place in the Western Conference standings. It has been a very up and down season for the regaining World Champions and they have been part of winning streaks and losing skids all season and are sitting just six games over .500. Dallas is still an overvalued team as it is 5-12 ATS in its last 17 games. Even looking at this line shows that as the Mavericks were getting three points at Houston and based on the change in venue, it should be a seven-eight points line shift which would make Dallas a -4 to -5 chalk but instead it is much higher than that. Houston has fared pretty well against the elite teams in the NBA, going 7-7 against the top ten in the league power rankings and the rockets are one of only six teams in the entire NBA that has a .500 or better record against the top ten. Conversely, Dallas has not exactly been at its best against lesser foes as it is just 13-13 against the top 16 in the NBA and the Mavericks are 16-36-2 ATS in their last 54 home games against teams with a road winning percentage of less than .400. That again proves the overvaluation of the Mavericks. Dallas swept the season series last year and took the first meeting just on Saturday as mentioned so the Rockets should come in playing with added incentive as they look to try and break the string against their in-state rivals. 10* (767) Houston Rockets |
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03-25-12 | Utah Jazz v. Atlanta Hawks -1 | Top | 133-139 | Win | 100 | 8 h 49 m | Show |
Utah is red hot right now and this is the perfect time to go against the Jazz. They have won six straight games but a closer look shows that it is not as great as it seems. Two of those victories came in overtime while four of those six wins came at home. The two road victories were by a combined five points and despite a two-game winning streak on the highway, the Jazz are still only 7-16 on the road. They are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as road underdogs of fewer than five points.
Atlanta has won three straight games although it has come against some bad teams as has its five wins over its last six games. Still, the Hawks are getting healthier and are rounding back into form heading into the playoffs. They are tied with Indiana for fifth place in the Eastern Conference and they trail Orlando by just two games in the fight for the third seed. While Atlanta has struggled against the elite, going 7-10 against the NBA's top ten, it is 22-10 against the rest of the league. This is the third game in three nights for the Hawks but they have not let fatigue hurt them this year. They played three consecutive games back in early January and won the second two and they have been one of the better teams in the league when playing with no rest as they are 10-3-1 ATS in the second of back-to-back games and that includes a 6-1 ATS mark when the second of the two games is at home. They came back from a big deficit last night but we should see that as a confidence builder. The Hawks have been up and down against the number but they are catching a great price at home. Atlanta is 9-4 ATS this season as favorites of fewer than five points and it is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games following a win. The Jazz meanwhile have not been as successful. They are coming off a win by 19 points over Denver and they are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games coming off a double-digit victory. Atlanta has won four of five against Utah after losing 11 of the previous 12 meetings. 10* (706) Atlanta Hawks |
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03-24-12 | Indiana Pacers +4 v. Milwaukee Bucks | Top | 125-104 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
Indiana won for us on Tuesday as it bounced back from that Knicks home-and-home sweep and it also won two games later at Washington by a bucket. The Pacers overcame a 22-point deficit against the Wizards to pick up that win and the flatness from that showed last night as the Pacers lost at home to Phoenix. Indiana is now in a tie for fifth place in the Eastern Conference but third place is still within reach as it is just two and a half games behind Orlando. The Pacers are 13-12 on the road, one of only six teams in the entire NBA with a road record better than .500.
The Bucks have been home underdogs more times than home favorites this season (12 to 9) so do they really deserve to be the chalk here against one of the top teams in the Eastern Conference? It is debatable but there will be no debate about taking this generous point spread. Milwaukee is coming off a win at Charlotte last night which is obviously not a big deal so it was able to bounce back from its home loss to the Celtics the night before. This is the third game in three nights for the Bucks. The Milwaukee starters minutes were limited last night thanks to the relatively easy win over the Bobcats but fatigue could easily be an issue. Usually coaches sit at least one starter in game one or in game two to keep them fresh for game three but that did not happen here. Guards Monta Ellis and Brandon Jennings played 62 and 60 minutes respectively the last two nights which is still a lot. Momentum is back on the Bucks side but the schedule is not helping out. Milwaukee is 2-9 ATS is the second of back-to-back games when that first game is played on the road so it obviously does not travel well. Indiana is 2-7 ATS in back-to-back spot when the first game is played on the road so it too struggles in that situation but it is a more respectable 4-3 ATS playing with no rest following a home game. The Bucks are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as home favorites of fewer than five points and the underdog is 4-0-1 ATS over the last five meetings in this series. 10* (515) Indiana Pacers |
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03-24-12 | Memphis Grizzlies v. Los Angeles Clippers -2.5 | Top | 85-101 | Win | 100 | 5 h 10 m | Show |
We played on the Clippers and lost Thursday but we will come right back with them Saturday. They are in the midst of their first three-game losing streak of the season but a return home will take care of that as all three of those losses came on the road. Los Angeles now trails the Lakers by three and a half games in the Pacific Division but more importantly it is in a logjam in the Western Conference with six teams that are separated by a half-game between fourth and ninth place.
Memphis is one of those teams making this an equally important game for the Grizzlies. The road has not been kind however as they have lost the first two games of this four-game roadtrip and are 9-13 overall on the highway. They are 1-8 ATS this season after playing two consecutive road games. Memphis has played 25 games against team ranked in the top 16 in the NBA and it is just 10-15 in those games. Conversely, the Clippers have played 27 such games and are 17-10 in those contests. The recent skid of 6-10 and following the New Orleans loss, head coach Vinny Del Negro has been brought under fire by of course ESPN and other media outlets. Yet it is those same people that still think the Clippers will make the playoffs. The point is that Del Negro is not the problem The offense has stumbled lately but in this NBA season, strange things are taking place with a lot of teams. The Clippers are 15-8 at home and are still a solid 12-8 ATS following a loss. The Clippers fall into a great league-wide situation also as we play on teams that have failed to cover the spread in eight or more of their last 10 games while playing eight or more games in 14 days. This situation is 73-40 ATS (64.6 percent) over the last five seasons. The Grizzlies are just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 road games against teams with a home winning percentage of .600 or better including 1-5 ATS against teams with any winning record. A packed house this afternoon will get this thing turned around. 10* (502) Los Angeles Clippers |
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03-23-12 | New York Knicks v. Toronto Raptors +5.5 | Top | 79-96 | Win | 100 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
New York is a perfect 5-0 under interim head coach Mike Woodson and that is now being reflected in the line. The Knicks just faced Toronto at home three days ago and were favored by 8.5 points and with the change of venue, that line should come down at least seven points but that is not the case here. New York won that game handily but playing the role of a road favorite has not been good this season as the Knicks are 2-5 ATS including losses in three straight.
The Raptors are no doubt having a tough season as they are 17 games under .500 including eight games under .500 at home. They have been unable to defeat any of the elite teams in the NBA, going 0-13 against the top ten and 3-18 against the top 16 but they are a much more respectable 12-14 against the teams below that. Despite the bad straight up records, the Raptors have the third best ATS record in the league and their 11 more ATS wins than straight up wins is easily the best in the NBA. Toronto has lost three straight games including its last game where it blew a late lead against Chicago at home, losing by 12 points after getting outscored by 19 points in the fourth quarter. The Raptors won't buckle though as they have been solid after a loss, going 18-12-1 ATS and they have been strong at home despite the game against the Bulls. Prior to that, they had not lost at game at home by more than seven points since January 31st, dropping those games by an average of 4.75 ppg. This is a double-revenge game for Toronto which lost in New York three days ago as mentioned as well as a home loss on a Jeremy Lin three-pointer when time expired. Going back further, the Knicks are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games as a road favorite and once again, the public is all them here. Toronto is 14-4 ATS in its 18 games this season after losing three of its last four games and in this series, the underdog is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings. 10* (852) Toronto Raptors |
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03-22-12 | Los Angeles Clippers -3 v. New Orleans Hornets | Top | 90-97 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
The Clippers got smacked around last night against Oklahoma City, their second straight poor outing. A lot of it has to do with the play of the Thunder which were coming off a loss in Utah the previous night and they have stepped it up a gear in those spots as they are now 11-1 following a loss including 10-2 ATS. It was bad timing for the Clippers which now have to pick up their own pieces and it won't be easy with this being their third game in three nights but that should not be an issue.
The good news is that both recent losses were blowouts so the Clippers were able to cut down on the minutes of the starters with Caron Butler sitting out altogether. Los Angeles is 6-9 over its last 15 games and the defeat last night caused head coach Vinny Del Negro to lash out after the game and the message should have sunk in to the players. This was the fifth time this season that the Clippers have lost two in a row and in the previous four occurrences, they responded with wins to avoid three consecutive losses. New Orleans is coming off a poor showing last night as well as it lost at home to the Warriors which is a bad sign considering Golden St. has already tossed in the towel this season. The Hornets were in their unfamiliar role of favorites and dropped to 0-7 ATS this season when laying points. They have been better as underdogs but not much better at home as they are 4-13 straight up and 6-11 ATS when grabbing points at home. New Orleans 4-20 home record is the worst in the NBA. The Hornets are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games against teams with a losing road record while going 1-11 ATS in their 12 home games this season after having lost five or six of their last seven games. The Clippers also fall into a solid situation where we play on favorites with a winning percentage between .501 and .600 in the second half of the season, playing a team with a winning percentage below .250. This situation is 62-33 ATS (65.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (807) Los Angeles Clippers |
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03-21-12 | Phoenix Suns v. Orlando Magic -8.5 | Top | 93-103 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
Orlando has scored 59 or fewer points four times in the history of the franchise and it has happened twice this season. The Magic scored 59 points on Monday in a home loss against Chicago by 26 points. The only good news to come from that is based on the last time this season, they were able to bounceback right away and make up for it. The first time they scored 56 points in a 31-point loss at Boston and were able to win their next game at Indiana by 19 points. Expect a similar rebound here.
Phoenix continues to play very well as it is 11-3 in its last 14 games heading into Tuesday's action at Miami. While the run has been great, the majority of the success has come at home as of those 11 wins, 10 came in Phoenix. The game in Miami on Tuesday marks only its third road game in over a month so playing in back-to-back road games is almost a brand new setting. The last time it happened was on February 14th when the Suns faced Denver after a game in Golden St. They lost to the Nuggets by 17 points. It is definitely a tough time in Orlando right now following the Chicago loss but it also lost at Miami the night before so the situation was not good to begin with. Making the Bulls defeat even more difficult is the fact that Chicago was without Derrick Rose and Orlando had gone 7-1 over its previous eight games. Even though the Magic have dropped consecutive games, it has been rare as they are 13-4 straight up and 12-5 ATS following a loss this season. They have lost more than two straight only once this year. Phoenix is just 4-9 ATS as a single-digit underdog of seven or more points. Orlando has had its share of struggles this season against the elite teams, going against teams ranked in the top ten in the league but the Magic have beaten up the lesser teams as they are 24-6 against the rest of the league. Coming off consecutive losses against the two best teams in the Eastern Conference should have them more than ready to go here. This has been a very common theme all year and while it is frustrating, it works well again for us here. 10* (756) Orlando Magic |
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03-20-12 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Indiana Pacers -3.5 | Top | 89-102 | Win | 100 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
The Pacers have not been able to get a run together as after losing four straight games, they were able to win two in a row only to lose a home-and-home with the Knicks over the weekend. Indiana had gone 6-1 in its last seven home games prior to its loss on Saturday against New York and it remains a solid 13-6 on its home floor for the season. Despite the recent struggles in covering, the Pacers are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 home games after having lost six or seven of their last eight games.
This is the seventh game in 10 days for the Clippers which makes for a pretty brutal stretch of games. The first six of those came at home making this their first road game since March 9th. Los Angeles does have a winning record on the road at a game over .500 but it has had most of its success against the poor teams, going 7-4 straight up when favored but just 4-6 when getting points away from home. Also, the Clippers are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games against the NBA Central Division. The concern right now is about the Pacers offense as they have scored 100 or more points only twice in their last eight games after going over that plateau in their five games before that. Enter newly acquired Leandro Barbosa who will be making his Indiana debut on Tuesday. The guard averaged 12.2 ppg in 42 games with the Raptors this season and he adds his superior free throw shooting to an already solid free throw shooting team. Indiana trails Orlando by two games for the coveted third spot in the Eastern Conference. This is the first and only meeting this season and the home team has dominated of late, going 4-0 straight up and ATS with all four games being easy covers. Hitting the road at this time has been problematic for the Clippers are they are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games after playing three consecutive home games this season. This includes a 0-3 record on the road following a long homestand where it lost all three of those games outright. The Pacers have won nine of 12 games against the Western Conference this season. 10* (652) Indiana Pacers |
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03-19-12 | Boston Celtics v. Atlanta Hawks -1.5 | Top | 79-76 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
The first stage of the roadtrip started good for Boston as it went 2-1 but it dropped the last two games at Sacramento and Denver and things will not be getting any easier. The Celtics have two more games on the highways after this as they look to improve their 7-13 record on the road. They have dropped nine of their last 12 games away from home. Boston is sitting in seventh place in the Eastern Conference and trails Atlanta by just two and a half games but it is just two and a half games out of eighth place as well.
Atlanta won last night in Cleveland which was its second straight win following two straight losses and playing with no rest is far from bad for this team. The Hawks are 10-2 ATS this season when playing the second of a back-to-back set and that includes a perfect 5-0 ATS mark when going from the road to back home. They are also a perfect 6-0 ATS when the second game is at home overall. Atlanta is 13-6 at home this season including wins in three straight games. The Hawks have not been the best at covering at home this season but that is due to some pretty big lines and this price range is in perfect shape as they are 9-3 ATS when favorites of fewer than five points. Atlanta has covered four of its last five games and it is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 home games when on an 80 percent cover run. Meanwhile Boston is 0-7 ATS in its last seven road games after failing to cover the spread in two or more consecutive games this season. This is the first meeting this season and Atlanta has fared pretty well against the Celtics with outright wins in five of the last seven meetings. The Hawks have played the sixth toughest schedule in the NBA and while they have struggled against some of the top teams, they are 17-4 against teams ranked outside the top 16 and that is where Boston falls. The Celtics are 5-8 against the top 10 while going 3-11 ATS in their last 14 road games against teams with a home winning percentage of .600 or better. 10* (604) Atlanta Hawks |
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03-16-12 | Miami Heat -3.5 v. Philadelphia 76ers | Top | 84-78 | Win | 100 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
Miami has dropped its last two games but a trip to Philadelphia should put an end to that. The Heat lost at Orlando in overtime and then dropped its last game in Chicago on Wednesday and they will be looking to avoid their second three-game losing streak of the season. The swagger that was there during a nine-game winning streak and a 20-3 run has been absent as Miami is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven games but it has won 11 of its last 13 games against the Sixers, including nine straight in the regular season.
The Sixers lost to the Pacers on Wednesday after winning three straight against the Celtics, Jazz and Knicks and this is the first game of a tough two-game stretch as they head to Chicago tomorrow. Philadelphia leads the Atlantic Division by a game and a half over the Celtics and while it has been a good season so far, a lot of that is due to the scheduling as the Sixers have played the 27th ranked schedule in the NBA. They have been great as favorites but horrible as underdogs. The Heat have comfortably taken both meetings this season against Philadelphia and while that sets up double revenge for the Sixers, it goes beyond that. As mentioned, they have lost nine straight regular season games in this series and as good as revenge can be as a motivator, sometimes the matchups simply get in the way. Motivation could be stronger on the other side as Miami has lost four straight road games and it has not lost five straight on the highway since 2007-08. That was their infamous 15-win season. Miami was coming off a loss in its last visit to Philadelphia as two nights earlier it blew an 18-point lead at Milwaukee so the situation is somewhat similar. Miami is 15-7 against the top 16 in the NBA including 12-5 against the top ten while Philadelphia is just 6-14 against the top 16 including 6-8 against the top ten. The Sixers are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games against teams with a winning record and to no surprise they are just 1-3 as home underdogs this season. 10* (803) Miami Heat |
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03-15-12 | Oklahoma City Thunder +1 v. Denver Nuggets | Top | 103-90 | Win | 100 | 25 h 50 m | Show |
Oklahoma City is coming off a home loss against Houston on Tuesday which was its second loss in its last three games, both coming at home. The Thunder still have a four-game over the Spurs but they are two games behind Chicago for the NBA's overall best record and that is and that is one of the goals as the best record gets home court advantage in the NBA Finals should they get that far. Hitting the road is no problem as Oklahoma City is 14-7 on the highway, which is the best road record in the NBA.
This is obviously a big game for Denver as well as it is five games over .500 on the season and it currently sitting in sixth place in the Western Conference. The Nuggets are only a game behind Memphis for the all-important fourth position but they are also just two games ahead of Minnesota which is sitting in ninth place. Denver surely needs to keep the winning going but this is not the spot to add to its one-game streak. The Nuggets are only 13-10 at home this season. Oklahoma City is 8-0 in its last eight games following a loss including 7-1 against the number although the ATS record is meaningless since an outright win here means a cover as well. The Thunder are 16-7 against teams ranked in the top 16 in the NBA while Denver is just 11-15 against such teams. The Nuggets will be looking for some revenge here as they lost the first meeting this season on the road which came after losing in the first round of the playoffs last season four games to one. The loss against the Rockets was dreadful as Oklahoma City was up 102-91 with 2:29 left but it was outscored 13-1 the rest of the way. That could linger for a lot of teams but not a team of the caliber of the Thunder as they plan to come back fighting. As Kevin Durant said, "We have to continue to just keep playing together and we'll be OK." The Nuggets are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight home games against teams with a winning road record while the Thunder are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games following an ATS loss. 10* (705) Oklahoma City Thunder |
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03-14-12 | Los Angeles Lakers v. New Orleans Hornets +4.5 | Top | 107-101 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
The Lakers are coming off a big and much needed win last night in Memphis as they took out the Grizzlies in double overtime for just their eighth road win this season. That sets up a great spot to go against them tonight as they have been horrible this year in situations like this. Los Angeles was a slight underdog on Tuesday but now it shifts to a road favorite which has been a money burning spot as it is only 3-6 straight up when laying chalk on the highway while going a putrid 1-7-1 ATS.
We played against New Orleans on Monday for a small play and came away with a victory as Charlotte not only covered but won the game outright for just its sixth win of the season. The outright victory was not at all surprising as the Hornets have played down to the opposition all season. When favored, they are now 0-6 ATS and have lost all of those games outright. They have not defeated any real bad teams at home but own signature home victories over Dallas, Orlando and Boston. You can toss out revenge for the most part as New Orleans is far from the same team it was last season when it lost in the playoffs to the Lakers but it does add some motivation for the players that are still with the team. The Hornets lost the first round series 4-2 after winning the first game in Los Angeles but then losing the series clinching game at home by 18 points. Despite going 10-26 as an underdog this season, the Hornets are 20-16 ATS in those games and that shows how much they have been undervalued. The Lakers are playing with no rest which has not been a good situation as they are 4-9 ATS in the second of back-to-back games. It gets even worse when the second game is on the road as they are 2-8 ATS which includes going 1-5 ATS when both of the games have been on the highway. The Hornets are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games as underdogs and while they have stepped up against the better teams, the Lakers have gone the other way, going 0-5 ATS in their last five games against teams with a losing home record. 10* (608) New Orleans Hornets |
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03-13-12 | Toronto Raptors v. Cleveland Cavaliers -4 | Top | 96-88 | Loss | -117 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
This is the third meeting this season between Toronto and Cleveland with the Raptors taking the first two matchups. We played on Toronto in that most recent game which took place back in January but this is a good opportunity for the Cavaliers to get some revenge while continuing its recent solid play. They have won three straight games which is a season high and their 16 victories are only three less than all of last season. Cleveland is a half-game behind Milwaukee for the eighth seed in the Eastern Conference.
Toronto has dropped its last two games to fall 15 games under .500 and this will be only its second road game so far in all of March. The Raptors are 6-14 away from home including a 1-5 record over their last six games on the highway which includes losses to Detroit an Washington. This will be the second straight start missed by point guard Jose Calderon which is huge as he is third in the NBA in assists and he leads the league in assist/turnover ratio with an incredible 4.47. Cleveland's three-game winning streak is impressive enough but considering the wins came against Denver, Oklahoma City and Houston, it only adds to it. This could be a game the Cavaliers of last season would lay down but these victories have given them some much needed momentum and confidence in going for this playoff push. A key player has been rookie Kyrie Irving who is averaging 9.1 ppg in the fourth quarter since January 27th which is the best average in the NBA. Irving looks for a big game here as he has been limited to 9.0 ppg on 5-25 shooting in the two meetings with Toronto. Cleveland has not won four straight games in two years so it knows how important this game really is despite coming against one of the worst teams in the conference. The Cavaliers fall into a great situation as we play on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are revenging a road loss while coming off a home win by 10 points or more. This situation is 98-60 ATS (62 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (534) Cleveland Cavaliers |
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03-12-12 | Minnesota Timberwolves +4 v. Phoenix Suns | Top | 127-124 | Win | 100 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
Minnesota's first game without Ricky Rubio was not a good one as it lost at home to New Orleans and that wasn't a great surprise as it was a big loss for sure. Expect the Timberwolves to rebound it their second game however as they are still playing exceptional this season as they are 21-21, very solid considering they won only 19 games all of last season. They are also 9-9 on the road, one of just five teams in the Western Conference and 11 teams in the entire league with a .500 or better road record.
Phoenix is making a big push after it was written off a while ago. The Suns have won two straight games and are 7-2 over their last nine games. Only one of these games has been played on the road so they are taking care of business at home where they are now 12-9 and Phoenix trails Houston by only two games for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. The Suns have been underdogs most of the time though and they have been very average in the role of favorites. Rubio was having a great season no doubt but his loss isn't going to kill the Timberwolves. According to an ESPN report, Only 53 percent of the Timberwolves' made field goals have been assisted on, the 6th-lowest percentage in the NBA, and Rubio was turning the ball over on 22 percent of his possessions. His field goal percentage was pretty bad over his last few games and Luke Ridnour is a solid backup that will take over the spot until Juan Barea returns from his ankle injury. Phoenix has owned this series with nine straight win including a victory in the lone meeting this season as it won by nine points earlier this month at home. The line is actually lower this time around which is a bit of a surprise based on the Suns recent play. Minnesota is 10-2 ATS this season in road games when coming off a game at home and it is 4-1 ATS in its last five road games against teams with a winning home record. Look for the Timberwolves to break their skid against Phoenix with an outright win. 10* (511) Minnesota Timberwolves |
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03-10-12 | Portland Trailblazers -5.5 v. Washington Wizards | Top | 110-99 | Win | 100 | 8 h 47 m | Show |
As bad as Portland has looked the last two games, this is a great opportunity for the Blazers to bounce back. They were hammered in Boston last night but that was no surprise. It was the Trail Blazers
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03-09-12 | Los Angeles Lakers +1 v. Minnesota Timberwolves | Top | 105-102 | Win | 100 | 24 h 28 m | Show |
Apparently it is the demise of the Lakers. They blew a 12-point lead against Detroit on Tuesday and ended up losing in overtime. The next night they blew a 21-point lead against Washington and lost by five points. Los Angeles should not be losing to either of those teams granted, but fatigue from the overtime game may have played a part in the late collapse against the Wizards. They have not been good on the road and everyone is talking about it. You can be sure they are hearing it .
Minnesota has been a great turnaround team this season as it has gone from the bottom of the Western Conference to a legitimate playoff contender. The Timberwolves are currently sitting tied for eighth with Utah for the final slot with five teams within two and a half games of the seventh spot so there is a cluster of team involved. Minnesota is arguably the rawest of the bunch so it will be interesting to see how it performs over the latter part of the season. All I know, this is not a good spot for the Timberwolves. The Lakers have owned this series with wins in 17 straight meetings including a home win at the end of February by 19 points. The home and road surely makes a difference but dominance over a team for so long does have meaning. All of a sudden many seem to forget that the Lakers just defeated arguably the hottest team in the NBA when they upset Miami prior to heading out on the road. Yes that was at home but Los Angeles still ranks as one of the top teams in the NBA despite the road woes. The Lakers have been road underdogs 12c times this season which is a lot for a solid team like this but those 12 games came against either NBA elite teams or teams with a strong home court advantage. The Timberwolves have neither. Los Angeles is 6-1 ATS in its lat seven games against teams with a winning record so it has stepped up to the opposition more often than not. The Lakers have covered four straight in Minnesota and this is the perfect opportunity for a big rebound performance. 10* (809) Los Angeles Lakers |
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03-08-12 | Orlando Magic v. Chicago Bulls -6 | Top | 99-94 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 23 m | Show |
The Bulls are rolling right now and they are playing with a purpose. They have been exceptional on their home floor, going 15-2 straight up and while they are just 9-8 ATS, six of those spread losses came when they were favored by 14, 12.5, 11, 11, 11.5 and 13.5 so covering the big number has not been a concern. Chicago has been a single digit favorite only twice in its last eight home games and it was able to cover both times. The Bulls are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 home games against teams with a winning record.
Orlando is coming off a dreadful loss against Charlotte as it blew a 20-point lead and lost by 16 points. All teams in the NBA have off nights but supposed title contenders do not let a 36-point swing take place not in their favor. The Magic dropped to 25-15 overall and 12-8 on the road which are still good but that should be the case when playing 28th ranked schedule in the league. Chicago has played a weak schedule also but their record is seven games better. Orlando has been good after a loss but not against this competition. Chicago has been in this scenario of playing with no rest heading home coming off a road game and it has gotten the job done all five times. They are just 3-2 ATS in those games but it needs to be noted that the two spread losses were against Toronto and Charlotte when they were huge double-digit favorites. The Bulls won those five games by an average of 14.4 ppg so they have dominated. Overall Chicago is 11-2 when playing with no rest which includes an 8-5 record against the number. Orlando is just 3-7 against the NBA's top ten with all three of those wins coming at home. One of the four home losses came against Chicago as the Bulls won by 14 points which was Chicago's fourth straight win in this series including the last three all coming Orlando. The revenge factor is in play but road revenge in this situation can be tossed. Orlando is 0-4 ATS in its last four road games while the Bulls are 5-0 ATS in their last five games against teams with a winning record. 10* (702) Chicago Bulls |
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03-07-12 | Memphis Grizzlies v. Golden State Warriors -1 | Top | 110-92 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 12 m | Show |
Golden St. is finally back home following a grueling six-game roadtrip, five of which took place after the All-Star break. The Warriors did go 3-3 over those six games including a 20-point win in the finale at Washington so it does come home with some solid momentum. Golden St. is 9-9 at home this season but it has won five of its last seven games in Oakland after a 4-7 start. The two losses came against Oklahoma city and Portland by a combined five points.
Memphis has been on a roll as it went into the All-Star break riding a 7-2 run and it has won its three games since then to put together a very strong run. The Grizzlies have gotten up to the fifth spot in the Western Conference standings and are trailing the Clippers by just a half-game for the all-important fourth seed. This is a game they will not be taking lightly as they are playing with confidence and considering they do not play again until Saturday, there will be no lookahead. The issue for Memphis is that most of those games during that 12-game stretch came at home. The Grizzlies only played three road games and the only two wins that came out of were at New Jersey and Toronto which are 3-13 and 6-13 respectively on their home floors. Memphis is 7-10 on the road this season and the only real quality win came at Atlanta. They did win the first meeting in Golden St. but that came by just one point after outscoring the Warriors by 17 points in the fourth quarter. Golden St. will be looking to avenge that horrible home loss and while the Warriors did have a shot to take out the Grizzlies in Memphis, that game also resulted in a one-point loss after they took the lead into the fourth quarter. Two losses by a point will have them fired up here. Memphis has won only three times in 11 games as a road underdog and a loss here likely means a cover loss as well. Golden St. is 18-5 ATS in its last 23 home games following a roadtrip lasting longer than seven days. 10* (626) Golden St. Warriors |
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03-06-12 | Los Angeles Lakers v. Detroit Pistons +5 | Top | 85-88 | Win | 100 | 24 h 32 m | Show |
Los Angeles hits the road for the start of a three-game road trip and it comes against three teams that it has destroyed in the last meeting so the motivational aspect will be in favor of the opposing sides as the Lakers always have a bulls-eye on their backs. The Lakers are just 6-12 on the road compared to 17-2 at home and while they have lost to some good teams on the road, they have also thrown up some clunkers against some inferior teams as motivation remains an issue.
Detroit started the season at 2-3 with the wins coming against Orlando and Indiana but it went downhill fast. The Pistons dropped 10 of 11 games and 19 of their next 21 contests to hit an all-time low. Things have gotten a lot better and even though Detroit is well out of the playoff picture, it has gone 8-6 over its last 14 games, showing a much improved sense of confidence. At 9-11, the home record is at least respectable and it better than its counterparts road mark plus the Pistons are 9-5 ATS as home underdogs. This used to be a great series back in the day but it has taken a turn for the worst since then. The Lakers have owned Detroit as they have won the last five meetings, all of which have been by double-digits and they have easily covered every one of those games. Looking at that seem to give Los Angeles the edge but as mentioned, it has not fared well on the road this season and laying a lot of points to an improving team is a big risk. Coasting through these games is no longer an option. Los Angeles has not exactly been killing it on the road when it should as the Lakers have only won two of their six games as road favorites and are just 1-5 ATS in those games. Also they are just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 road games against teams with a losing home record. Detroit meanwhile is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games against teams with a losing road record while going 5-2 ATS after a loss. The time has been good in the past as well as the Pistons are 21-6 ATS when playing just their second game in five days. 10* (560) Detroit Pistons |
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03-05-12 | Utah Jazz v. Cleveland Cavaliers +2.5 | Top | 109-100 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 47 m | Show |
Cleveland has lost five straight games including four in row coming out of the All-Star break but the wrong team is favored in this game. The Cavaliers have dropped three straight games at home to fall to 8-11 at home on the season but their home record is still much better than the Jazz' record on the road and those are the marks we need to look at in this league and not the overall numbers. In order somehow stay in the playoff hunt, Cleveland needs this game with two tough road games on deck.
Utah is coming off a loss in Dallas on Saturday as the road woes continue. The Jazz have lost six straight games on the road to drop to 3-13 on the season and this is after starting 2-3 away from home. They are three games out of the Western Conference playoffs but it is that close only because of a solid home court advantage and even that is down from recent years. Utah has been a road favorite only once this season as it was a five-point chalk at New Orleans and lost outright by six points. The Jazz covered that last game in Dallas as 7.5-point underdogs but after a cover this season, they have lost 11 of 17 games next time out. Coming off a close loss has not helped matters either as Utah is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 games following a loss by six points or fewer. Going back to last season Utah is 1-4 ATS in its last five games as a road favorite while going 1-6 ATS in its last seven games on the road against teams that possess a losing record at home. Cavaliers standout rookie Kyrie Irving has been sick and actually had to sit out against Chicago before coming back against Washington last time out. Him being healthy is pretty big. Cleveland is 4-11 against the NBA's top 16 teams but a much more respectable 9-11 against the teams outside that ranking and this number sets up well for the Cavaliers which are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games as underdogs of fewer than five points including 6-0 ATS in that role at home. 10* (502) Cleveland Cavaliers |
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03-04-12 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Houston Rockets -2 | Top | 105-103 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 48 m | Show |
As much as I like the Clippers as a team that can make some noise in the Western Conference, this is not a good spot for them on Sunday. I have played against them a couple times this year when they have come off a loss as that has been a strong situational angle for them but this game spells trouble. Los Angeles is 9-8 on the road this season which is very solid in this league but take a look at those road victories and you can se why it has been as successful as it has.
Houston closed the first half of the season as one of the hottest teams in the league but the second half has not been as good so far. After narrowly defeating the Raptors at home in their first game back, the Rockets lost at Utah by a ton and then were upset at home against Denver on Friday. Houston had a four-game winning streak prior to that and it is now sitting at 15-5 at the Toyota Center on the year which is certainly one of the better home records in the entire league. The Rockets will not only be highly motivated to snap their current losing streak but they have some motivation toward the Clippers as well. The first meeting was in Los Angeles and it was a disaster from the start. The Rockets were outscored 41-26 in the first quarter and fell behind as much as 30 points so it was certainly not a great performance. Houston shot a respectable 46.1 percent but it could not compete with the Clippers which could not miss, shooting 57.3 percent from the floor. The Rockets have been great this season in this situation as it is 8-1 ATS in its nine home games this season when coming off a loss and it has won those games by over 10 ppg. The Clippers meanwhile have not been as they are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 road games after a loss by six points or fewer. Making the situation ever better is the fact that the Rockets are 25-12-1 ATS in their last 38 games following a double-digit loss so they bounce back big here and we don't have to lay a big price to do so. 10* (810) Houston Rockets |
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03-03-12 | Milwaukee Bucks v. Orlando Magic -9 | Top | 98-114 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
Orlando had the night off following a tough home loss to Oklahoma City on Thursday night. The Magic are in good position to bounce back and sweep the season series against the Bucks. The loss against the Thunder snapped a three-game home winning streak where Orlando is now 12-7 on the season. That record could be a lot better though as three of those losses came in overtime and holding serve on their home court is becoming even more important as the season starts winding down.
Milwaukee lost a tough one in Atlanta last night as it led by 15 points in the third quarter, but got outscored 34-18 in the fourth quarter. The Bucks are now 0-2 on this roadtrip and 6-14 on the road overall and going back prior to the All-Star break, it has been a miserable run overall as they are 2-8 over their last 10 games. Three of those losses have come against Orlando and while playing the same team so many times in a short period normally helps, it isn't the case here. Orlando has won the first three games of this series thanks to aggressive play. The Magic have outshot the Bucks in all three games but most important, they have held a 52-31 advantage in made free throws and that is no accident. They have had no answer for Dwight Howard who is averaging 21.7 ppg and 16.7 rpg in the three games. Orlando has won 13 straight games against Milwaukee with Howard in the lineup, and it has not lost a home game in this series since December of 2004. Orlando hits the road for three straight games after this and coming off a loss, this is a big game to win. The Magic are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games while the Bucks are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games playing with no rest including 3-9 ATS this season. They also fall into a negative situation where we play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are revenging a home loss, off a cover where it lost the game straight up as an underdog. This situation is 58-24 ATS (70.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (502) Orlando Magic |
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03-02-12 | Golden State Warriors v. Philadelphia 76ers -6.5 | Top | 83-105 | Win | 100 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
The Sixers are coming off a tough home loss to the Thunder as they blew a late lead and ended up going down by four points. That has been a problem all season for Philadelphia as it has played 10 games against teams ranked in the top ten and it is just 2-8 in those contests. It is also just 6-12 against the top 16 but when playing teams below that, the Sixers are 15-5. that is a straight up record but when favored big, it has been no issue as they are 12-3 ATS when favored by seven or more points.
Golden St. got thumped in its first game out of the All-Star break but it bounced back quickly as it won on Wednesday in Atlanta. That improved the Warriors to 5-9 on the road and the Hawks were the first team they have beaten on the highways that is currently in a playoff position. They have had a similar problem like Philadelphia based on the opposition as overall, Golden St. is 7-5 against teams outside the top 16 in the league but just 7-13 against teams within it. The Sixers went into the All-Star break riding a five-game losing streak so the fact that is came out and destroyed the Pistons in Detroit in the first game back was a good sign. Playing Oklahoma City even for the majority of the game was also a good sign and the Sixers know that this game against Golden St. is a big one because Chicago comes into town in their next game so riding a 1-7 losing mark is not something they want to go in with in trying to keep space between them and Boston in the Atlantic Division. This is a revenge game for the Warriors which lost at home to Philadelphia by 28 points in the first meeting this season but we certainly are not going to be concerned about road revenge. As mentioned, the Sixers have been solid as bigger favorites and they are 40-19 ATS in their last 59 games against teams with a losing record so they have fared well as a chalk for some time now. Philadelphia has covered four straight meetings in this series at home while going 9-5 ATS this season following a loss. 10* (814) Philadelphia 76ers |
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03-01-12 | Los Angeles Clippers -3.5 v. Sacramento Kings | Top | 108-100 | Win | 100 | 26 h 41 m | Show |
The Clippers are coming off a loss in their opening game after the All-Star break and it was not a pretty game. They had Minnesota on the ropes but they were outscored by 15 points in the fourth quarter and an early double-digit lead turned into a late double-digit loss. The Clippers still hold down the third spot in the Western Conference and part of that has been the ability to recover from losses as Los Angeles has lost back-to-back games only twice all season.
While the Clippers were losing, the Kings were winning against Utah as they used a strong second half to pull away. Sacramento moved to 8-5 with that victory and even though it possesses a better home record than what the Clippers have on the road, this is not a good spot. The Kings have won back-to-back home games only once this year and part of the reason we played on them last night was the fact that the crowd was going to be more energized because of the announcement they were staying in town. This is the start of a brutal stretch for Los Angeles as it plays six straight games on the road with a mix of good and bad teams. The Clippers have games at Houston, Minnesota and San Antonio which are the toughest of the bunch so a 3-3 record is imperative over this stretch. That means beating the poor teams and so far this year, it has had the knack of doing that as it is 8-3 against teams ranked outside the top 16 in the NBA. They are 5-0 ATS in their last five games against teams with a winning percentage below .400. The Kings meanwhile have struggled against the better teams in the league as they are 5-15 against teams ranked within the top 16 in the NBA. This is the first meeting this season between these two teams and they don't meet again until a home-and-home in April. Los Angeles took three of the four last year. As mentioned, the Clippers have been great this season avoiding losing streaks and they are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a loss and 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a double-digit home loss. 10* (705) Los Angeles Clippers |
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02-29-12 | Chicago Bulls v. San Antonio Spurs -2 | Top | 96-89 | Loss | -103 | 28 h 49 m | Show |
The Spurs are finally back home following their annual rodeo roadtrip and it ended up being the most successful one in the history that they have had to do it. San Antonio went 8-1 in those games and while the one game was a forgetful 40-point loss in Portland, it bounced back two nights later with a win at Denver to close the first half. The successful roadtrip put the Spurs three games behind Oklahoma City in the Western Conference and now they are home for seven straight games to add to their 13-1 record at home.
The Bulls own the second best record in the Eastern Conference heading into Tuesday and they have been solid both at home and on the road. Their 14 road wins are the most in the NBA and while they do own good road wins against the Lakers, Clippers and Magic, none of the others are overly impressive. This has been the case for home games as well and it has led to the 29th ranked schedule in the NBA. The overall record is great, no doubt, but Chicago is just 7-5 against the top 16 including 2-2 against the top 10. The Spurs meanwhile have played the toughest schedule in the league through the first half of the season and a lot of that is due to 20 of 34 games taking place on the road. San Antonio is 15-8 against the top 16 which is nearly double the amount of game placed against the upper echelon than the Bulls have played and the winning percentage is much better. The Spurs have also been tested with 14 gamers against the top 10, going 8-6 including a 6-0 record at home. The only home loss for San Antonio came against Sacramento of all teams by just two points but that was a tough spot as it has just come off road games against Miami and Orlando, with the latter going into overtime and resulting in a two-point win. Going back to last season, the Spurs are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games at home against teams with a road winning percentage of greater than .600 while going 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. 10* (520) San Antonio Spurs |
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02-28-12 | Utah Jazz v. Sacramento Kings -2 | Top | 96-103 | Win | 100 | 27 h 37 m | Show |
The Kings are back home following a six-game roadtrip to end the first half of the season and it was not a very good one as they went 1-5. They did close out the trek with a victory at Washington which improved them to 4-17 away from home on the season. Those 21 road games are the most played by an team so the fact that Sacramento is near the bottom of the Western Conference is not much of a surprise. The Kings are a lot more respectable 7-5 at home.
Utah closed the first half with a disappointing loss at Minnesota as it blew an 18-point lead and lost by a bucket in the final seconds. That was the third straight loss for the Jazz and while the time off came at a great time for them, hitting the road again is not a good thing. They are 3-11 on the highway this season including losses in four straight road games and eight of their last nine. Utah is 1-4 ATS in its last five road games as an underdog of fewer than five points. There was some good news in Sacramento as the second half of the season gets underway. The city, the NBA and the Kings announced a tentative deal Monday to finance a new arena that would keep the team in Sacramento. While it may not seem like a big deal, this has been an ongoing issue that has affected the team and its fans and now basketball is the main priority again. Based on that and the fact the Kings have been out of town so long, we should see a very strong crowd for the home team. Sacramento has played the second toughest schedule in the NBA and a lot of that is because of the huge number of road games played. Despite the recent poor play, the Kings are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games and their six games difference of ATS wins versus straight up wins is the third biggest margin in the league. Sacramento is playing with some revenge as well as it lost in Utah by three points as nine-point underdogs last month. The Kings have covered three straight meetings as well as seven of the last nine. 10* (716) Sacramento Kings |
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02-23-12 | Orlando Magic -3 v. Atlanta Hawks | Top | 78-83 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
We played on Atlanta Wednesday on the road as an underdog but will be fading the Hawks Thursday at home as an underdog and a lot of that is based on the situation and the opponent. Playing with no rest has been solid for the Hawks so far as they are 7-1 ATS in the second of a back-to-back set this season but this is the first instance of its this season where they are short handed. Atlanta is 0-6 ATS in its last six games as an underdog of fewer than five points.
The Magic have been playing very well, going 9-3 in their last 12 games heading into Wednesday following that four-game skid they endured in late January. Orlando has a 1.5-game lead on the Hawks in the Southeast Division and it would like to increase that with a quality road win. On the season, Orlando is 9-6 on the road while winning three of its last four games on the highway, the lone exception being a loss in Miami. The Magic are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games against teams with a winning home record. The Magic are still out for revenge as Atlanta has dominated them of late. After winning the first regular season meeting last year, Orlando lost the final three regular season matchups and then faced the Hawks in the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals and lost the series in six games. Orlando then dropped the first meeting at home this season so it is out for some serious payback and it will not be treating this game like any other as a victory over its division nemesis would be perfect heading into the break. Orlando falls into a great situation here as well as we play on road favorites with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 playing a team (with a winning percentage between .501 and .600, in February games. This situation is 48-20 ATS (70.6 percent) since 1996 with the straight up record being 53-15 and that is big since with this line, an outright win likely means a cover as well. Look for the Magic to be the hungrier team here and finally break though in this series. 10* (703) Orlando Magic |
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02-23-12 | New York Knicks +9.5 v. Miami Heat | Top | 88-102 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
The Knicks have been playing some exceptional basketball as heading into Wednesday night, they have gone 8-2 over their last 10 games despite horrible losses to New Orleans and New Jersey, games they should have easily won. They have been nearly as good on the road as they have been at home, going 7-8 and while those wins have come against some weak teams, this is a different team now. While the feeling is that they have been overvalued, that changes against the most overvalued team in the NBA.
Miami is on a hot streak of its own as it has won seven straight games while going 18-3 over its last 21 games. While it did have a run of six straight covers, those 18 wins did not provide much contributions to the wallet as the Heat only covered 12 of those victories and in that 21-game span, they went 12-9 ATS and that six-game difference is very significant. Miami is 14-2 at home but only 8-8 against the number. The variance is worse coming off a win as it is 20-5 but a mere 12-13 ATS coming ff a victory. The Knicks stayed within 10 points in the first meeting against the Heat this season down in Miami and they have gotten the best of Miami, going 4-0 ATS over the last four meetings, winning two of those outright last season. In that first meeting this season, obviously there was no Jeremy Lin and also Carmelo Anthony did not play while Amare Stoudemire had a very bad game, shooting just 5-14 from the floor, scoring 12 points and grabbing just six rebounds. New York has been solid in this role as it is 30-11 ATS in its last 41 games as a road underdog while going 15-5 ATS in its last 20 games against teams averaging 99 or more ppg. Miami is just 5-15 ATS in its last 20 games after covering five or six of their last seven games and fall into a negative situation where we play against double digit favorites after a home game where both teams scored 100 or more points and playing eight or more games in 14 days. This situation is 59-25 ATS (70.2 percent) since 1996. 10* (701) New York Knicks |
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02-21-12 | San Antonio Spurs v. Portland Trail Blazers -3.5 | Top | 97-137 | Win | 100 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
San Antonio burned us again last night with a narrow win and cover in Utah. We will be going against them here again though as this road run comes to an end. The Spurs have won 11 straight games including their first seven games during this roadtrip. The last two could have gone either way however and now playing their third tough opponent in four nights makes the challenge even tougher to keep the streak going. The depth has taken a big hit and could be in even worse shape tonight.
While the Spurs were winning in Utah, the Blazers were losing in Los Angeles as they were throttled by the Lakers in a game that was not as close as the final score indicated. Portland trailed by an many as 30 points as it was outscored 37-7 to start the game and never had a chance. That presents us with a good rebound opportunity as Portland heads back home where it is 12-5 on the season. The Blazers got back to their wining ways at home with a win over Atlanta after losing four straight. As mentioned, the Spurs are pretty thin right now. In the win over the Clippers, they paid a price as Manu Ginobili got hurt again and is out for a while and center Tiago Splitter also left the Clippers game with an injury. Both are out until March. On top of this Tim Duncan has logged nearly 79 minutes in his last two games on Saturday and Monday so he could very well sit out tonight or be limited in hid minutes. The Spurs got key contributions late from reserves last night and that isn't likely to happen again. The Blazers are 13-3 ATS as favorites of four points or more this season so this is a situation they have excelled at. They have been great avoiding long losing streaks as they are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss while going 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a spread loss. Portland had won three straight games in this series but lost the first meeting this season in San Antonio which sets up a revenge spot. The Blazers have won six straight at home in this series. 10* (710) Portland Trailblazers |
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02-19-12 | Sacramento Kings v. Cleveland Cavaliers -2 | Top | 92-93 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 0 m | Show |
Cleveland looks to make an immediate bounceback after getting blown out at home against Miami on Friday and it is in good position with a short price. The Cavaliers fell to 6-8 at home with that loss but prior to the Heat loss, they were 3-2 in their last five games at home which were wins over the Pacers, Clippers and Mavericks. Cleveland is 11-6 following a loss this season which is not bad considering losses came in big bunches last season. A wins here evens out their current homestand.
Sacramento is also coming off a loss on Friday as it lost in Detroit by six points which was its fourth consecutive loss and third straight loss to open this six-game roadtrip. The Kings have been playing well at home with some big wins over some big teams but the road has been a completely different story as they are now 3-15 on the season. The Kings have allowed an average of 111.7 ppg on 49.6 percent shooting in losses to Chicago, New York and Detroit to open the roadtrip. Cleveland has had a tough time generating offense on a consistent basis but Sacramento won't slow its down here based on those last three games and the fact that it is allowing 102.5 ppg on 47.3 percent shooting in those 18 road games. The offense has been arguably worse as the Kings are averaging only 90.2 ppg on 40.8 percent shooting, 25th and 29th in the league respectively. Cleveland has shored up its defense, allowing more than 100 points only once in regulation in its last nine home games. That matchup will be important as Sacramento is 2-6 ATS in its last eight games after allowing 100 or more points while Cleveland is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games when its opponent allows 100 points or more. As mentioned, Cleveland has been solid coming off a win and it is now a perfect 5-0 ATS in its last five games coming off a cover loss. The Kings and the underdogs have dominated this series of late against the number but the dynamics have changed on both sides with roster turnover making it meaningless. 10* (808) Cleveland Cavaliers |
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02-18-12 | San Antonio Spurs v. Los Angeles Clippers -3 | Top | 103-100 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 23 m | Show |
San Antonio is up to its old tricks, winning its last nine games which is the longest winning streak of any team in this out of sorts NBA season. The last five games have all been on the road and after a brief stop at home, the Spurs resume their rodeo trip today. The opposition during this winning streak has been suspect at times, especially during the east coast swing but now things will start to toughen up. The Spurs are just 3-6-1 ATS on the road coming off a win.
Los Angeles has had a day off to relish in its win in Portland, the first time the Clippers have won at the Rose Garden in their last six tries. They return home where they are 11-3 on the season and the win over the Blazers can go a long way as they battled back from an 18-point deficit. Los Angeles has won four of five, six of eight and 10 of its last 13 games going back to late January and the majority of those games were on the road as the Clippers have had just four home games during that stretch. Last year the Clippers broke through with their first win in forever in this series, snapping an 18-game winning streak by the Spurs. San Antonio got right back to dominating though as it won the first meeting this season by 25 points at home but that was just the second game of the season for each team. Los Angeles has obviously come a long way since then and now it can actually play for revenge as it has the capability to start its own run of domination. The Clippers have been solid in the payback role this season, going 9-1 ATS in their games revenging a road loss. Playing the elite has been prosperous as they are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 home games against teams with a winning percentage of .700 or more and they fall into a great situation where we play on favorites revenging a double-digit road loss in a game involving two teams with winning percentages between .600 and .750. This situation is 56-27 ATS (67.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (502) Los Angeles Clippers |
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02-17-12 | Miami Heat v. Cleveland Cavaliers +10 | Top | 111-87 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 59 m | Show |
Miami is coming off a very impressive run and it was actually one of the best ever as the Heat won three games in three nights on the road, all by double digits and they were the first team ever to accomplish that feat. They are on a hot run right now, winning 15 of their last 18 games to move a half-game behind Chicago in the Eastern Conference prior to Friday's action. Miami has won four straight games o the road but it is just 6-5 in its last 11 games on the highway.
Cleveland is showing a ton of improvement this season as it is 11-16 through 27 games. Last season the Cavaliers were just 8-19 through 27 games and it took them 58 games to finally catch that 11th victory which shows things are on the rebound. Cleveland is a decent 6-7 at home and the last three wins have been impressive ones against the Pacers, Clippers and Mavericks. This is the biggest game of the season thus far as even though the LeBron James move is in its second season, it is still a big thing in Cleveland. The funny thing about all of this is that James said just on Thursday that he wouldn't rule out coming back to Cleveland. "And if I decide to come back, hopefully the fans will accept me," he said. Good luck on that one. The Cavaliers have lost both meetings so far this year but both of those came in Miami and the line comparisons are pretty interesting. The Heat were favored by 13.5 points in both of those games meaning a chance in venue should move this number to around -5.5 to -6.5 yet the Heat are laying double-digits. Cleveland didn't do so well last season with the initial return of James as it lost by 28 points but capped the season with a 12-point home win. Miami lost some momentum with the two nights off I believe and Cleveland is more than capable of winning this game outright with the way it has been playing but the 10 points are well worth the take. The Cavaliers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as a home underdog while Miami is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games as a road favorite between 5.0 and 10.5 points. 10* (808) Cleveland Cavaliers |
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02-16-12 | Boston Celtics v. Chicago Bulls -8 | Top | 80-89 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
This line came out late due to the uncertainty of Bulls guard Derrick Rose and Celtics forward Kevin Garnett, mostly because of the former. Rose is most likely out for this game and Rose has missed eight games this season with Chicago going 6-2 in those games so while his absence is missed, it is far from detrimental to the team. Granted the wins came against mostly scrub teams but the Bulls are more than capable of winning against the better teams obviously.
Chicago owns the best record in the Eastern Conference at 24-7 and it has accomplished this despite playing a very tough schedule to start the season. The schedule itself is ranked only 27th in the NBA but of their 31 games, 20 of those have been on the road. Prior to their win over Sacramento, the Bulls endured a nine-game roadtrip and came away pretty successful with a 6-3 record. The trip ended with a loss at Boston so there will be some payback on the table for this one. The Celtics are coming off a brutal loss last night at home against the Pistons, their third loss in four games with the lone win being that game against Chicago. Garnett missed his first game of the season last night and his availability is still unknown for tonight but the feeling is that he will play. He may have a big impact however because he is not 100 percent but with or without him will not make a difference. Boston is just 4-5 on the road and has played a schedule the opposite of the Bulls with 19 of 28 games being at home. Boston is 3-4 ATS this season in the second of a back-to-back set and this is just the fourth time that the second game has taken place on the road. The first three times all resulted in straight up and ATS losses with Boston losing those games by 19, 14 and 12 points. Also, the Celtics are just 1-7 ATS in their last eight road games against teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. They have been solid as bigger underdogs this season but this situation calls for a big Bulls revenge win. 10* (704) Chicago Bulls |
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02-15-12 | Atlanta Hawks -1.5 v. Phoenix Suns | Top | 101-99 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
It is time for some road revenge for the Hawks. Playing road revenge in this league is not usually a wise endeavor but this season is different than most with situations popping up that we have not seen in quite some time. Atlanta is on a five-game roadtrip and it is a brutal one that started off against the Lakers on Tuesday and also features games at Portland, Chicago and New York. This is the most winnable game of the bunch and Atlanta knows it so there will be no post-Laker letdown.
The Suns were playing some solid basketball with wins in four of five games before losing at Golden St. on Monday. The starters logged a lot of minutes in that game and that is important because the Suns are also in action on Tuesday at Denver making this one their third game in three nights. While some players will most likely rest on Tuesday, it is obviously not a full team rest and with the different rotations taking place, it makes things really difficult and can hurt the team chemistry. Atlanta lost the first meeting at home to Phoenix by nine points and that was the third of three straight ugly losses at home. That was the fourth straight win by the Suns in this series as they swept the season series last year and won the final game the previous season. Phoenix has actually covered six straight games in this series and while it has won the last four home meetings, take note that the Suns were favored in all of those games. Despite the win earlier this year, these teams have switched positions. Phoenix is 13-1 this season against teams ranked outside the top 16 and that only loss happened to be against the Suns so it was a total aberration. While there won't be a Laker letdown as mentioned because of the schedule, the Hawks have been good in this spot to begin with as they are 6-1 ATS when playing with on rest this season including 5-0 ATS in their last five. The Suns are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games and their 5-7 straight up record is certainly nothing to be intimidated by. 10* (521) Atlanta Hawks |
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02-14-12 | Miami Heat v. Indiana Pacers +2.5 | Top | 105-90 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
Miami is coming off a blowout win last night in Milwaukee, its third straight victory, all of which have come on the road. The Heat are now playing their third game in three nights and while the minutes for the starters have been kept under control, this is still a tough task no matter how much rest was given. The Heat are now 10-5 on the road but just 5-5 over their last 10 games on the highway after starting the season 5-0. They are 7-8 ATS in those games which signals being overvalued.
Indiana meanwhile has lost three straight games but has had two days off a try and get things sorted out. The Pacers were involved in their own tough stretch as they played four games in five nights and it obviously did not work in their favor. 10 of their last 15 games have been on the road and on the season, 17 of their 27 games have been on the highway so it has been a difficult schedule to start to the season. The Pacers are 0-5 ATS in those most recent home games which adds to the great contrarian spot here. Not only are the Pacers ready to end their losing skid overall, they are looking to end a three-game losing streak to the Heat. This includes a loss in the only meeting this season which resulted in a 35-point drubbing in Miami and Dwyane Wade didn't even play. Indiana hung around for a quarter but then it was all Miami and that defeat was the Pacers worst loss since a 132-89 loss in New York in January, 2010. And yes, the Pacers did avenge that loss against the Knicks as well. This is a game they desperately need to get back on track and prove that they can defeat a quality opponent. The situation definitely calls for it and Indiana also falls into one of the best league-wide situations out there. We play on home underdogs with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 on the season that are coming off a loss as a favorite. This situation is 45-18 ATS (71.4 percent) since 1996 including going a solid 11-2 ATS over the last five seasons. The Pacers get their revenge tonight. 10* (702) Indiana Pacers |
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02-13-12 | Phoenix Suns v. Golden State Warriors -3 | Top | 96-102 | Win | 100 | 13 h 27 m | Show |
We won with Golden St. last night and we will come back with the Warriors tonight for many of the same reasons. They defeated Houston last night which was just their second win over the Rockets in the last 14 meetings and tonight they will try and defeat the Suns for just the second time in the last 13 meetings. Golden St. has lost to Phoenix in seven consecutive matchups and again similar to the Houston scenario, the Warriors have been underdogs in all of those meetings showing how things have turned around.
Phoenix is playing its best basketball of the season as it has won four of its last five games including three straight on the road. The Suns were 4-8 on the highway prior to this so they were not a very good road team and keeping this pace up will certainly be a challenge. While they are playing with some positive momentum, Phoenix may be looking past the Warriors as they head to Denver tomorrow night, part of a three-game stretch being played in three nights. Golden St. brings in an identical 7-8 record on its home floor. Prior to the most recent home loss against Oklahoma City, the Warriors had won three of four games, all of which came at home with the lone defeat coming against that same Oklahoma City team so take away games against the best team in the west and the Warriors are 4-0. Golden St. owns some big wins against Chicago, Miami and Portland while four of those eight losses have been by three points or less so the record could very well be much better. The Warriors have failed to win three straight games as they have had an opportunity to accomplish this on three previous occasions only to fail all three times. That provides added motivation. "We want to get on a little win streak here and get back in the playoff hunt," said Klay Thompson. "We're more than capable right now." Golden St. is 30-15 ATS in its last 45 home games after scoring 105 or more points in its previous game while going 15-7 ATS in its last 22 games as a home favorite of fewer than five points. 10* (512) Golden St. Warriors |
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02-13-12 | Utah Jazz v. New Orleans Hornets +4 | Top | 80-86 | Win | 100 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
Utah is coming off a win last night in Memphis as it snapped a four-game road losing streak to improve to just 3-7 on the road. Clearly they are not a good team away from home and no matter the opposition, putting them in the role of a road favorite is dicey. This is their first instance this season which shows time are changing as Utah was a road chalk 30 times the last two seasons. This has the makings of a letdown game for Utah based on last night and what is on deck.
This is the second of three games in three night for Utah and while you might think to wait to go against them tomorrow night, the opportunity strikes tonight. Head coach Tyrone Corbin said he planned on tweaking some minutes to keep players fresh but it certainly did not happen last night against Memphis. The Jazz have four players averaging over 25 minutes, Al Jefferson (33.1), Paul Millsap (31.3), Gordon Hayward (28.2) and Devin Harris (26.2) and all exceeded their average last night. New Orleans is having a miserable season as it is 4-23 and hot on the heels of Charlotte as the worst team in the NBA. The Hornets have lost eight straight games straight up and all of those resulted in cover losses as well. They have been equally bad at home and on the road but the one big thing in our favor is value. New Orleans has been a home underdog numerous times but that has been against the NBA's top teams and not a team that is in search of just their fourth road win of the season. Not only does Utah have to try and stay somewhat fresh for tomorrow night but it is a meaningful game as the Jazz catch Oklahoma City again to try and get some payback. The Jazz are 4-5 ATS this season when playing with no rest and they have lost both games when playing on the road for two straight games so they are in a very vulnerable spot. Add to that, Utah is 0-5 ATS in its last five road games against teams with a losing home record and we have the chance to see an outright upset tonight. 10* (506) New Orleans Hornets |
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02-12-12 | Miami Heat v. Atlanta Hawks +4.5 | Top | 107-87 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
Surprisingly the road team has won the first two meetings this season but that changes Sunday. Miami is only two games ahead of Atlanta in the Southeast Division and is a game worse on the road than the Hawks are at home yet the Heat are favored and by a substantial amount. When these teams met in Atlanta in the last meeting just over a month ago, Miami was favored by a point and now the number has risen significantly and it will prove to be too much of an increase.
Miami won and covered in that meeting but it was an overtime victory that obviously could have gone either way. The Heat are 8-5 on the road this season and of the other seven road wins, three were by three points or fewer while two others came against New Jersey and Washington, two of the worst teams in the Eastern Conference. They are coming off that win over the Wizards but the away wins have been few as they are just 3-5 in their last eight on the highway. Atlanta hit a small bump in the road last week as it dropped three straight games at home and badly. They lost those games by a combined 54 points against the spread but the Hawks bounced back with an easy home win over Indiana and then followed that up on Friday with an overtime win at Orlando. They look to be back to the way they were playing earlier in the season which included a big come-from-behind win at Miami. Atlanta is 11-5 ATS in its 16 games against opponents coming off a win. The Heat are still considered the team to beat in the Eastern Conference because they are the reigning champions but it comes as no surprise that their ATS record is eight games less than their straight up record and that eight-game difference is easily the biggest disparity between ATS and SU records in the NBA. It is a simple explanation of a team being extremely overvalued. Miami is just 4-8 ATS as a road favorite this season and this is the area where most teams do see the overvaluation the most. 10* (808) Atlanta Hawks |
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02-11-12 | Portland Trail Blazers +4 v. Dallas Mavericks | Top | 94-97 | Win | 100 | 14 h 35 m | Show |
Both Portland and Dallas were in action on Friday and while the Blazers have been pretty below average when playing with no rest, this game means a lot to the Blazers. In last year's first round in the Western Conference Quarterfinals, the Blazers had a 2-2 tie with Dallas but lost Game Six against the Mavericks and after winning the first two home games, they lost to Dallas by seven points in the Rose Garden to end the series. This is the first meeting since then and Portland has not forgotten.
Dallas is coming off a win at Denver on Thursday but the Mavericks have been looking anything but the World Champions that they are. They are 15-11 on the season but have battled consistency throughout the year. Prior to the game against Denver, Dallas had dropped its three previous games which came right after an 11-3 run which does show the inconsistencies. The Mavericks are 9-5 at home but they have been far from dominating as they have a scoring differential of just +4.9 ppg. That is important because Dallas has played a schedule this season that is ranked right in the middle of the NBA. The Mavericks have been able to take care of the poor teams, going 11-1 against teams ranked outside of the top 16 in the power rankings but they are just 4-10 on the year against the top 16 including a 3-7 record against the top ten. Needless to say, Portland is within both of those groups. Overall, Portland has played a weaker overall slate but is 5-3 against the top 10 and 7-6 against the top 16. As mentioned, this is a revenge game for the Blazers as anytime a team ends your season, you don't forget. Portland has struggled in Dallas over the years and it has struggled in the role of a road underdog as well but those can be tossed out here. The Blazers have gone 0-5 ATS as underdogs of fewer than four points but they covered their only game when they were getting more than that, a 10-point outright win in Oklahoma City as 4.5-point dogs. Basically it shows the value we are receiving tonight. 10* (511) Portland Trailblazers |
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02-09-12 | Los Angeles Lakers v. Boston Celtics -3.5 | Top | 88-87 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 45 m | Show |
After the Lakers brought home the NBA title back in 2009-10, the Celtics went to Los Angeles in the first meeting last season and defeated the Lakers by 13 points. The Lakers then returned the favor in Boston by way of a six-point victory so last season the road team won both of the meetings. I think that changes this year starting off with this first meeting in Boston and a lot of that is simply based on the way Los Angeles have been playing on the road this season.
The Lakers are only 3-9 away from home on the season with the wins being all narrow ones against Utah, Minnesota and Denver. We had the Lakers in that game against the Timberwolves as they were getting two points which is just a bucket less than what they are getting here. I feel that is undervaluing the Celtics which are back to relatively full strength with the return of Ray Allen and Rajon Rondo. Rondo is a big key in the success of Boston both past and future. Boston has won four straight games, all coming at home and while those wins came against some weak competition, that is negated by the fact that the Celtics have been home for the entire month and for a team that is near the top of the age group in the NBA, that is big benefit. The Celtics have spent the majority of their early season at home as two-thirds of their games have taken place there so they need to add to their 10-6 home record. It needs to be noted that Rondo has been out for the last two Boston home losses. Even though both teams are not playing to their potential, this is a big game as this rivalry is still strong and we have to give the big edge to the home team in this instance. The Lakers are just 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring 90 points or less two straight games and 9-23 ATS in their last 32 games against teams that are outscoring opponents by three or more ppg. They are also -9 ATS in their last 11 games as a road underdog while Boston is 4-1-1 ATS in its last six games as a home favorite of five points or less. 10* (702) Boston Celtics |
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02-08-12 | Indiana Pacers v. Atlanta Hawks -3 | Top | 87-97 | Win | 100 | 8 h 8 m | Show |
The Hawks are in a funk right now. After winning five of six games to close out January, they have lost their last three games, all of which have come at home and all were very winnable games. Losing to Memphis and Philadelphia are not horrible losses but the most recent defeat against Phoenix was a bad one as it was Atlanta's first loss against a losing team at home this season. The Hawks were keeping pace with Miami but they are now three games back in the Southeast Division.
Indiana is coming off a home win last night against Utah and while it should have been an easy victory, it was far from that. The Pacers built a 21-point lead before the Jazz came back to tie the game but Indiana was eventually able to pull away late. That type of victory took a lot out of them even it never should have come down to that. Indiana has been playing great all season as it is just 2.5-games behind Chicago in the Central Division thanks to equally good play at home and on the road. Atlanta will have plenty of motivation because of its three-game skid but also because of a loss it suffered in Indiana last month. The Pacers defeated the Hawks by 12 points but it was a lot uglier than that as Indiana was down by 24 points thanks to putting up a nine-spot in the third quarter. Atlanta has covered the last four meetings at home against Indiana and the favorite has taken control of this series, covering 16 of the last 21 meetings. The Hawks have won eight straight home meetings as well. The Hawks fall into a very solid situation as well as we play on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are coming off a loss as a favorite, in a game involving two teams with winning percentages between .600 and .750. This situation is 53-20 ATS (72.6 percent) since 1996. Atlanta has not lost four straight home games since April of 2007 and this has turned into a must win situation as the Hawks have games against the Magic, Heat and Lakers in their next three contests. 10* (512) Atlanta Hawks |
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02-07-12 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Golden State Warriors +3 | Top | 119-116 | Push | 0 | 14 h 32 m | Show |
Oklahoma City came away with a big overtime win last night in Portland and I expect a bit of a letdown following that. The Thunder have not alternated wins and losses in each of their last five road games and while tonight's game may seem like a relief after last night, that won't be the case. They picked up their 10th road win of the season last night which is the most in the Western Conference so while they have played well away from home, they are just 2-5 ATS this season when playing with no rest.
Golden St. is coming off an overtime game as well, but it lost at Sacramento and that was all the way back to Saturday. The Warriors had won three of four games prior to that, all of which came at home with the lone defeat coming against this same Oklahoma City team. Overall Golden St. is 6-7 at home but it does own some big wins against Chicago, Miami and Portland while three of those seven losses have been by three points or less so the record could very well be much better. The loss against the Kings was the second straight game against Sacramento that the starters were benched because of a lack of effort and hustle. It was a message from head coach Mark Jackson basically telling his players get more competitive or don't play. Because that happened last game and there has been two days off since then, we can expect to see a much better effort. After that first game against Sacramento, the Warriors came back next game and blew out Utah with the starters scoring 98 of the 119 points. While this is the second of a back-to-back for Oklahoma City, it is also the fifth game in seven days and there has been travel involved in every one of those days. Adding to the Warriors incentive is the revenge factor as they lost by 11 points in that last meeting no thanks to getting outscored by 17 points from the free throw line which is usually pretty unheard of for a home team. Golden St. is 4-1 ATS in its last five home games against teams with a road winning percentage of .600 or better. 10* (712) Golden St. Warriors |
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02-06-12 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Portland Trailblazers +1.5 | Top | 111-107 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 5 m | Show |
The Thunder are coming off a loss on Saturday at San Antonio and while they have lost back-to-back games only once this season, being the favorite hear is a stretch. They have been the road favorite in 11 of their 13 games on the road but the two games they have not been favored have come against very similar opposition in Dallas and San Antonio. Oklahoma City split those games and its loss against the Spurs is very similar to the way this one sets up.
Portland is 11-1 at home this season which is the second best home record in all of the league behind San Antonio's 13-1 mark. The Blazers are coming off a decisive 20-point win over Denver on Saturday which made it five wins in a row at the Rose Garden. That only loss came against Orlando which may not look very good right now with the way the Magic have been playing but it was right before the start of a six-game roadtrip for Portland so the loss can at least be somewhat justified. This is a revenge game for Oklahoma City as it lost at home to Portland by 10 points back on January 3rd which is its only home loss this season. That certainly is going to provide some added motivation for the Thunder but road revenge in the NBA is not a situation that we like to go after. They have not lost back-to-back road games since last April and those games happened to include Portland into the mix as well. The Thunder are just 3-9 over the last 10 meetings in this series. 10* (520) Portland Trailblazers |
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02-03-12 | Washington Wizards v. Toronto Raptors -4.5 | Top | 89-106 | Win | 100 | 20 h 1 m | Show |
Toronto heads home after getting crushed in Boston on Wednesday by 36 points which came after a home loss to the Hawks by 23 points. It has been an up and down year so far for the Raptors but this is a good spot to get back into the win column as they catch one of the worst teams in the NBA while playing with revenge on top of it. Toronto is just 2-6 at home but this is just its third home game in its last 12 games and the Raptors hit the road again on Monday.
Washington has been playing a lot better since the firing of head coach Flip Saunders but this is still a bad team. The Wizards held their own against Orlando on Wednesday but the Magic are playing some of the worst basketball in the league right now so that wasn't much of a surprise. Washington did have that shocking win over Oklahoma City but it was pretty clear after seeing that game that the Thunder didn't even show up. Two other wins came against 3-20 Charlotte. That fourth victory came against Toronto at home and the Raptors have not forgotten. The Wizards were playing horrible and were off to a 0-8 start before Toronto came calling and it resulted in a 15-point home win. Giving Washington its first win was an embarrassing situation for Toronto and they will be out for some payback at home. The home team has won the last six meetings in this series so the Raptors know they can take care of business in what is a rare home game. Toronto is also going to right the ship from the debacle against the Celtics. "You learn from getting your butt kicked like we did tonight," Toronto head coach Dwane Casey said. "I told the team, 'For the rest of your basketball careers, remember how this feels tonight, getting beat by 40.' It's something you never want to forget." The Wizards are 2-7 ATS in their last nine road games against teams with a home winning percentage of less than .400 so don't think Washington steps up even if the opposition is a step down. 10* (804) Toronto Raptors |
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02-02-12 | Denver Nuggets v. Los Angeles Clippers -1.5 | Top | 112-91 | Loss | -101 | 16 h 25 m | Show |
After starting the season 1-2, the Clippers have been playing excellent as they are 11-5 in their 16 games since then and they have only played one really bad game over that stretch, a 29-point loss in Utah where Chris Paul did not play and starters were pulled early. It was also the second game of a three-game-three-night set so the situation as bad to begin with. Los Angeles has won 10 of its last 11 games at home with the only loss being a three-point setback against the ever improving Timberwolves.
Denver is no doubt a solid and improving team but it enters this game riding a two-game skid, the third time it has been involved in such a losing streak. The Nuggets never made it three straight defeats but they had the luxury of playing that third game at home in the first two instances. They are coming off a loss at Memphis in overtime which snapped a five-game road winning streak and it was some karma in that loss as two of those wins during that winning streak came in overtime as well. Denver will be out for payback here as it lost at home to the Clippers which was the first of the two most recent defeats. It won't be that easy however. The Nuggets have lost three straight meetings in this series going back to last season and two of those were when the Clippers were not nearly as good. The addition of Chris Paul has been enormous as he is averaging 18.1 ppg and 8.9 apg and while the Clippers went 3-2 without him, they need him in there to keep pace in the Western Conference. Los Angeles has been getting it done against the solid teams as well as it is 5-1 ATS in its last six games against teams with a winning record and it possesses a 5-3 straight up record against the top ten in the NBA. Those five wins are tied for the most in the league with Miami, San Antonio and Minnesota. Overall the Clippers have played the sixth toughest schedule and being in second place in the conference is very impressive based on that. Look for the confidence of this team to continue climbing. 9* (510) Los Angeles Clippers |
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02-02-12 | Memphis Grizzlies v. Atlanta Hawks -4 | Top | 96-77 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 51 m | Show |
Atlanta returns home following a 4-1 roadtrip and because of the Orlando collapse, the Hawks have moved into second place in the Southeast Division, just a half-game behind Miami. They are a solid 8-5 on the road but they are an even better 8-1 at home where they are outscoring opponents by 11.6 ppg. The schedule has been a mix of cupcake teams as well as some powers so they have held their own by going 3-4 against teams ranked within the top and 13-2 against teams ranked outside that range.
We won with the Grizzlies in their last game against Denver and admittedly, it was a fortunate win. Memphis came back from a 13-point deficit to send the game into overtime and Denver had a chance to possibly put it away but the Grizzlies fought and came away with the outright win. The short homestand is history as the Grizzlies hit the road for the seventh time in 10 games and they have not been road warriors, going 4-7 overall with all four of those wins coming against losing teams. Atlanta got Kirk Hinrich back three games ago and while he has not put up huge numbers, his presence is good for the depth of the team. He will shake off the rust as he gets more games under his belt and this will be his first game in Atlanta since his return. The goal is to get him going and get him involved in a trade for a big man as the play of Jeff Teague at the point has been terrific. The matchup here is a good one for Atlanta since Memphis is without Zach Randolph as he has been a Hawks killer down low. Memphis has a game at Oklahoma on Friday and it is still looking for revenge following last season's playoff defeat. The Grizzlies have hosted the Thunder twice and both resulted in close losses so payback in still in the plan. The Hawks have been solid in the role of a small favorite as they are 9-2 ATS when laying single digits this season while Memphis is just 1-5 ATS in its six games as an underdog between three and 7.5 points and 0-7 ATS in its last seven road games against teams with a winning home record. 10* (502) Atlanta Hawks |
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02-01-12 | Houston Rockets v. San Antonio Spurs -5 | Top | 91-99 | Win | 100 | 22 h 32 m | Show |
This is already the fourth meeting between Houston and San Antonio and the Spurs will be going for the series split as they lost for the second time in Houston in the last meeting just over a week ago. San Antonio picked up its third road win on the season at Memphis on Monday and it was certainly a bog one for confidence. The Spurs have been much better at home this season as they are 10-1 with an inexplicable loss against Sacramento being the lone blemish.
We played against Houston on Monday and it got stomped at home against Minnesota. I think this is a good spot to continue to fade the Rockets as the markets are still giving them too much credit because of their recent winning streak. It was a horrible start for the Rockets which opened 3-7 but has taken nine of its last 11 games and the schedule has played a big part in that. Seven of those wins came against teams with a losing record and only two of those games were on the road. Houston has played nine of its last 11 games at home after starting the season with seven of its first 11 games on the road so you can see how the record have evened things out for the most part. It is early but the Rockets have been very public in calling out their coaches and that is certainly not a thing to let everyone hear. They are saying coaches are not making adjustments but it comes down to effort and if there is effort to begin with, adjustments do not even need to be made. Houston is 3-6 on the road and the defense has been a sieve as the Rockets are allowing 102.2 ppg on 48.9 percent shooting. San Antonio remains one of the better shooting teams in the NBA as it is tied for fifth at 46.1 percent shooting from the floor including 47.4 percent at home which is good for sixth best in the league. The Spurs are 4-0 ATS in their last four games against teams with a winning record while Houston is 1-4 ATS in its last five road games against teams with a winning home record. 10* (718) San Antonio Spurs |
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01-31-12 | Denver Nuggets v. Memphis Grizzlies +2 | Top | 97-100 | Win | 100 | 14 h 20 m | Show |
Memphis returns home following its four-game roadtrip that did not end very well. After winning at Golden St., the Grizzlies lost the final three games against the Blazers, Clippers and Suns. To their credit, they looked better as each game moved along but heading home has come at a good time before things get too out of hand. Before this three-game skid, Memphis had won seven straight games including four straight at home where it is 6-2 on the season. It has played the eighth toughest schedule in the NBA.
Denver had its own winning streak snapped as its six-game run came to an end with a home loss against the Clippers on Sunday. The Nuggets pay a visit to the Clippers on Thursday so they already be looking forward to that game for some revenge. Even so, this is the toughest road test Denver has seen in some time as it has won five straight away games, two of which took overtime to win. The three road losses this season came against the Spurs, Lakers and Blazers. With the Grizzlies playing on Monday against San Antonio, this could be taken as a possible letdown spot but they need to gain some momentum back and this game is their last home game before another roadtrip, this one consisting of three games. And those games are against Atlanta, Oklahoma City and Boston in a three-in-four-night stretch so that adds to the importance of this game against Denver. Memphis won the only home meeting against Denver last season after dropping three of the previous four. This is the fourth time Memphis has played with no rest this season but this is just the second time that the second game has been at home. The first resulted in a 33-point win over Sacramento on its home, floor and while we cannot compare the Kings to the Nuggets, the situational of having a non-travel day wit the second game at home is very big. The Grizzlies are 15-3 ATS in their last 18 games as a home favorite of fewer than five points. Look for a big bounceback Tuesday. 10* (510) Memphis Grizzlies |
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01-30-12 | Minnesota Timberwolves +6.5 v. Houston Rockets | Top | 120-108 | Win | 100 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
We played against Minnesota last night but will back the Timberwolves tonight in what is a good bounce back situation. They are coming off a five-point loss to the Lakers but fought back from an 18-point deficit in what could have turned into a win had the shots fallen. Minnesota outrebounded the Lakers 52-41 including a 24-7 edge on the offensive end while committing just four turnovers. This is a much improved team this season and now has what it takes to win on the road.
Houston is off to a surprisingly good start this season as it is 12-8 and just a half game behind Dallas for first place in the Southwest Division. It was a horrible start for the Rockets which opened 3-7 but has taken nine of its last 10 games and the schedule has played a big part in that. Seven of those wins came against teams with a losing record and while one of those was at Minnesota, the Timberwolves were the best of the bunch. A 9-2 home record is offset but just a 6-6 record within the conference. One key players is back in the Minnesota rotation and that is Michael Beasley who has played the last two games after missing the previous 11 games with a foot injury. He is coming off a double-double last night and his presence is big. The Rockets are dealing with their own injury issues as Kevin Martin, the teams' leading scorer, is questionable with plantar fasciitis, He has missed the last two games and his status has kept this game off the board at most shops. The Timberwolves will look to get some payback after last Monday's home loss to the Rockets as they were hammered by 15 points. Road revenge is not easy but Minnesota has been holding its own in these spots as it is 5-1 ATS in its last six games as a road underdog between 5.0 and 10.5 points while going 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games against teams with a winning record. The Rockets have absolutely dominated this series but the Timberwolves took the last meeting in Houston last season. 10* (711) Minnesota Timberwolves |
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01-29-12 | Los Angeles Lakers +2 v. Minnesota Timberwolves | Top | 106-101 | Win | 100 | 8 h 30 m | Show |
The Lakers were a huge disappointment last night but that wont stop me from backing them again tonight. Los Angeles fell behind against Milwaukee early and could not come back as it lost by 11 points and was outscored in three of the four quarters. While I expected last night to be a gut check for the Lakers in their road miseries, they did not come through but I do expect tonight to be a different situation as last night was an embarrassing loss to a middle of the pack team from the Eastern Conference.
The Timberwolves are a very improved team and it shows in their energy, consistency and overall record. Still, they are under .500 on the season while going 5-6 at home which is a testament for the schedule they have played but also shows that they have a tough time with still with the elite teams in the league. Minnesota is coming off a win over San Antonio but it has played the Spurs well in recent matchups but the same cannot be said for their series against the Lakers. Los Angeles has won the last 15 meetings against the Timberwolves since March of 2007 and while Los Angeles may seem frail at this point, this is the perfect opportunity for a recovery. The Lakers are just 1-7 on the road but as mentioned from last night, the schedule has not been easy and while last night's loss can be considered inexcusable, it is even more important for a bounce back. The Lakers have covered six of the last seven meetings in Minnesota and add to that here. 10* (811) Los Angeles Lakers |
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01-28-12 | Los Angeles Lakers -4.5 v. Milwaukee Bucks | Top | 89-100 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 25 m | Show |
The Lakers snapped a three-game losing streak against the Clippers on Wednesday and head out to try and solve some of their road issues. They are just 1-6 on the road this season and it took overtime to get that lone victory in Utah. In their defense, it has been a tough road schedule with six of those seven games against teams currently in a playoff position. Milwaukee is currently there as well but with a losing record, the Bucks should not even be thrown into the mix.
Milwaukee is coming off a hard fought game last night in Chicago so it may be tough to turn around to play another elite team in the second of two nights. The Bucks have struggled in this situation already this season as they are 0-6 ATS playing with no rest, losing the last five of those outright and by an average of 13.8 ppg. After starting the season 4-0 at home, the Bucks have dropped their last two, both against playoff teams and the only good win was against the Spurs but they are 2-7 on the road this year. While Milwaukee is playing the second of a back-to-back set, Los Angeles has had some ample rest as this is just its third game in a week which is a big break considering the truncation of this years schedule. This is a game that the Lakers will be out to prove something and that is the ability to take car of business on the road. "We've got to come out firing and hitting and being aggressive on the road and being confident in what we're doing," power forward Pau Gasol said about this upcoming two-game trip. Milwaukee will be without center Andrew Bogut, who will be sidelined for eight to 12 weeks after fracturing his left ankle during the Bucks' victory Wednesday over the Rockets. That gives the Lakers a significant edge down low with Gasol and Andrew Bynum. The Lakers have won eight of their last 10 meetings in Milwaukee, including three in a row and the Bucks had trouble against the Western Conference, going 13-27 ATS in their last 40 games. 10* (507) Los Angeles Lakers |
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01-27-12 | Phoenix Suns v. Portland Trail Blazers -9.5 | Top | 71-109 | Win | 100 | 24 h 18 m | Show |
Portland is coming off its second straight road loss to a losing team to drop to 3-7 on the road for the season after losing at Golden St. on Wednesday. The home floor has been much better for the Blazers as they are 8-1 at the Rose Garden and it remains one of the tougher environments for opponents to come into. They have only lost 12 times at home during the regular season since the start of last season and this year, they are outscoring opponents by over 10 ppg.
The Suns have lost two straight games and after an average 4-4 start to the season, they are 2-7 over their last nine games. This is clearly a team in transition and while there are a couple consistent players on this team, it is made up mostly of journeymen and role players. Things could go from bad to worse as Steve Nash trade rumors are swirling more and more as the Suns will be happy to put 2011-12 aside and start over next year. That kills a team confidence as that confidence is clearly waning already. The Blazers have been in this situation twice this season where they have lost on the road with a home game up next and those resulted in wins by an average of 16 ppg. One of those earlier road losses was at Phoenix so not only do have a bounceback opportunity but we have a revenge situation and not just any revenge situation. Portland went into Phoenix with a 5-1 record and was handed a 25-point loss, easily its worst loss of the season and its worst loss since a 25-point loss at the Lakers last November. The Suns two most recent wins came against Boston and New York, two big disappointments in the Eastern Conference and the only quality win of the bunch came against these same Blazers. That does not mean it was a matchup edge, it was just a poor situation for Portland which was coming off a monster win the prior night against the Lakers. This is the most Portland has been favored by over Phoenix in a very long time but I don't think it is going to matter as the gap is getting bigger and bigger. 10* (824) Portland Trailblazers |
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01-26-12 | Boston Celtics v. Orlando Magic -8 | Top | 91-83 | Loss | -113 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
Orlando put up a franchise low 56 points against the Celtics on Monday and it came back with a big win on Tuesday over Indiana which showed great resolve from a team that certainly hit a season low. Now the Magic are back home for the first time since defeating the Lakers last Friday to move them to 6-2 on the season. After Orlando won the first meeting on Christmas Day last season, the Celtics have won the last three meetings but all of those games took place in Boston.
The win over Orlando was the second straight for Boston and it has been off since then as it go a much needed break. It has been a tough start for the Celtics which are still under .500 but in the weak Eastern Conference, they are sitting in the seventh spot of the standings. Their 7-9 record would put them in 11th place in the Western Conference. Boston is just 2-4 on the road this season and the most trouble part of that is that both of the wins came against 3-15 Washington and neither came easy. Obviously this is a big game for Orlando as it will be seeking its revenge following that embarrassing loss that took place in Boston. "It's not another game," said Magic forward Glen Davis. "We want to beat them. We want to beat them bad because we didn't show them who we really are. They played a good game." Guard J.J. Redick emphasized that Thursday's matchup is more important than a typical regular-season game. "Yes," he responded. "It absolutely is. We got embarrassed. We got embarrassed. So, yes, it is." This is the biggest number that Orlando has been favored by over the Celtics in a while but it is justified and I feel it is still on the value side. The Magic were favored by seven points Monday as Boston was without Ray Allen and Rajon Rondo and now it is favored by just a point more at home with Allen still on the shelf. Boston is just 3-16 ATS in its last 19 games after a win by 15 or more points and 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games following a win by 20 or more points. 10* (502) Orlando Magic |
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01-25-12 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Golden State Warriors -3.5 | Top | 93-101 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
This may be a surprising line for some with a team that is five games worse being favored. However the situation is a very good one for the Warriors as they look to turn around what has been a very frustrating start to the season. They are coming off a loss against Memphis on Monday after blowing a 16-point lead against the Grizzlies and the fourth quarter has been their Achilles Heel. After the loss to Memphis, the Warriors are 4-5 when they've entered the fourth quarter leading or tied.
They catch a Blazers team coming off their second straight easy win at home and makes it three games in three night for Portland. The issue isn't so much about playing with no rest as the minutes for the starters has been kept under control but simply hitting the road has been a struggle for Portland which is 3-6 away from home. The Blazers are averaging 104.3 ppg at home which is third best in the NBA but on the road they are averaging only 90.4 ppg, which is in the bottom half of the NBA. This is a great opportunity for Golden St. to silence some critics and after breaking down the loss to Memphis head coach Mark Jackson said he pulled no punches in pointing out to his players what went wrong. Getting called out can be a very good thing especially when it comes to a lack of hustle and a lack of toughness which is what Jackson referred to. Golden St. is the only team in the NBA not to have won a game within its own conference as it is 0-6 against teams from the west which sets up for motivation. This is the first meeting this season between the Blazers and Warriors and Golden St. has gotten the best of Portland over the last couple years. It has won six of the last nine meetings, including three of four last season, while covering eight of those games. In both home meetings last season, the Warriors were favored both times so this line is certainly not out of line. Going back further, Golden St. is 11-1 ATS in the last 12 home meetings and the Blazers are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games as a road underdog. 10* (724) Golden St. Warriors |
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01-24-12 | Orlando Magic +3.5 v. Indiana Pacers | Top | 102-83 | Win | 100 | 9 h 2 m | Show |
Good teams bounce back from poor efforts and we should see Orlando do that tonight. The Magic played in Boston last night with the Celtics playing without Ray Allen and Rajon Rondo and they got embarrassed in losing by 31 points. Orlando put up only 56 points which is the fewest amount of points scored in team history no thanks to putting in a mere 10 in both the third and fourth quarters. The Magic shot better from three-point land (25 percent) than they did from inside the arc (24.5 percent).
Indiana returns home following a big road win at the Lakers on Sunday and admittedly, we were on the wrong side of that one. The Pacers have now won seven of their last nine games and are currently sitting in second place in the Eastern Conference by percentage points while trailing the Bulls by three games there and in the Central Division. That is rather big in this scenario as the Pacers travel to Chicago for the first meeting with the Bulls this season so a peek ahead is very possible as well. After winning three of the four meetings with Indiana in 2009-10, Orlando swept all three games from the Pacers last season and that continues as not a lot has changed over the last couple years. Pacers center Roy Hibbert will face his toughest test this season when he tries to slow Magic center Dwight Howard who is coming off one of his worst shooting nights as he was just 4-15 from the floor. That will certainly provide motivation and he has held his own with an average of 20.3 ppg and 14.3 rpg in those six wins. Howard has recorded a double-double in all but three of his 16 games this season. Orlando is 25-9-1 ATS in its last 35 games following a loss of more than 10 points while going a perfect 4-0 ATS in its four games following a loss this season, winning all four of those games outright, winning those games by an average of 11.5 ppg. Indiana meanwhile is just 8-17 ATS in it last 25 games following a win and only 4-15 ATS in its last 19 games after covering the spread in two or more consecutive games. 10* (503) Orlando Magic |
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01-21-12 | Oklahoma City Thunder -8 v. New Jersey Nets | Top | 84-74 | Win | 102 | 23 h 11 m | Show |
The NBA works in mysterious ways. Oklahoma City was riding a seven-game winning streak heading into Washington and it lost to arguably the worst team in the NBA. Those night happen, even to the best teams, but what also happens with the best teams is that they bounce back and we can expect the Thunder to do that on Saturday. They have had since Wednesday to stew over that loss and while we don
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01-20-12 | Milwaukee Bucks v. New York Knicks -5.5 | Top | 100-86 | Loss | -104 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
The Knicks are a mess right now but this could be the game that gets them back on track. New York has dropped four straight games after a four-game winning streak right before this. The last victory came against Philadelphia and we were involved with the Knicks in that game but since then, nothing has gone right. The last two losses both came at home which dropped them to 3-4 at home and while this recent skid is not helping momentum, it is helping out with the line value.
Milwaukee is coming off its first home loss of the season now the goal is to grab its first road win of the season as it enters Friday with a 0-8 record on the road. The Bucks haven't been very competitive in those games either as they are just 1-7 ATS with the only cover coming at the Clippers as they stayed within the 10-point spread by losing by six points. Milwaukee is getting outscored by over 10 ppg on the road and it hasn't exactly faced an overly tough slate away from home. Also adding to the value for New York is this series history as Milwaukee has covered seven straight meetings while winning three of four outright last year including the final two. That sets New York up in a revenge spot but let's face it, it is more concerned about getting out of its funk and with Denver coming in tomorrow and then a four-game roadtrip after that, it needs to take care of business here. Knicks coach Mike D'Antoni is calling his team's poor play a "crisis" and statement like that can actually do wonders. The Knicks offense has been stuck in neutral but Milwaukee should help solve that as the Bucks have allowed opponents to shoot 48.6 percent over their last five games. New York is coming off a 37.2 percent effort against Phoenix in its last game and it has shot 41.7 percent in its last seven games. The shots just aren't falling and it is something that should come around and Carmelo Anthony is at the front of the line. He needs to take control of this team and it starts on Friday. 10* (808) New York Knicks |
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01-19-12 | Dallas Mavericks +2.5 v. Utah Jazz | Top | 94-91 | Win | 100 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
The Utah season has been a lot like the season the Sixers have been having. The Jazz have played some very poor teams in the NBA as 75 percent of their wins have come against teams that will either not be in the playoffs or somehow sneak in after another team falters. Also like Philadelphia, Utah has faced some teams that were missing one of if not their best player so they have had the luxury of playing bad teams that were even in worse shape because of a missed pivotal player.
This is the second of a back-to-back set for the Mavericks and baring any significant injury, they should be just fine. They are 4-2 ATS this season playing with no rest so the adjustments have been done well. Heading into Wednesday, Dallas had won seven of its previous nine games following a dreadful 1-4 start where it looked absolutely lost. The new roster had a lot to do with the start and a shortened training camp certainly did not help. Even though it has not shown this year yet, the Mavericks are strong on the road. Utah |
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01-18-12 | San Antonio Spurs +6 v. Orlando Magic | Top | 85-83 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
The Spurs got embarrassed last night as they let a 14-point lead at halftime turn into a 22-point loss against Miami as they were outscored 71-35 in the second half. Runs like that are uncommon for the elite teams in the NBA but bounceback are not and I expect San Antonio to rebound tonight. The home/road dichotomy remained unblemished as the Spurs, which are 9-0 at home, dropped to 0-5 on the road with the loss and they are now the only team in the NBA where the road team has yet to win in any of their games.
Orlando is heating up as it has won five straight games but I'm not sold. Three of those came against league bottom-feeders, another came against the reeling Knicks while the other came against Portland, which had just won a home revenge game against the Clippers the previous night. The win over the Bobcats last night was a little tougher than expected and now the Magic get to play their third game in three nights, the first time they have faced this scheduling anomaly this season. The Spurs certainly have not forgotten their last trip here as they lost to Orlando by 22 points last December. They allowed the Magic to shoot 59.5 percent from the floor which was one of their worst defensive performances of the season. Along with Milwaukee and Washington, the Spurs are the only team in the league that has failed to win on the road yet this season and that is not good company to be in. After last night, there should be some motivation. "We should be embarrassed," head coach Gregg Popovich said. Dating back to last season and including three playoff defeats at Memphis, the Spurs have lost their last 10 games away from home. That may not seem like a streak we want to get involved in especially knowing they are 0-10 ATS in those games as well but because of this, the value is there. Orlando was favored by just two points in the home meeting last season and now it is up to as much as six in this one. That is what we call an overadjustment. The Spurs snapping that road losing streak would not be a surprise. 10* (705) San Antonio Spurs |
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01-17-12 | San Antonio Spurs v. Miami Heat -7 | Top | 98-120 | Win | 100 | 21 h 38 m | Show |
Miami is in one of its slumps that we saw last season and had yet to see this year previous to this recent skid. The Heat have lost three straight games and its been the clutch play that has really hurt as two of those losses came in overtime prior to the most recent loss against Denver which was a 13-point setback. All of those came on the road however and Miami heads home for just its fifth home game of the season and its first since January 4th. Dwyane Wade will be unavailable but that should not be a concern here.
San Antonio comes into this game with an undefeated record at home but it is winless on the road with a 0-4 record. Three of those losses were not very close and overall the Spurs are 0-4 ATS on the road. They are certainly going to be up for this game after losing by 30 points in their one trip to Miami last season but that was a revenge game for the Hear which had lost in San Antonio 10 days prior to that, also by 30 points. Motivation will be big on both sides but the edge goes to the home team. As mentioned, Wade will be out as he is dealing with an ankle sprain and while his absence is costly, there is plenty around him that can pick up the slack. Namely, we are referring to one LeBron James. James said he would treat Wade's absence like he did his time in Cleveland, when he was the Cavaliers main option. He is averaging 29.5 ppg, 8.2 rpg and 7.4 apg yet he is still getting called out so his lack of being able to take over a game. The feeling is that he will be out to prove something on Tuesday. Miami is 4-0 ATS in its last four games following a double-digit loss and this will be the first instance of that this season. As mentioned, the Spurs have had trouble on the road and it goes back further as they are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 road games and 0-7 ATS in their last seven road games against teams with a winning home record. San Antonio is coming off a win over Phoenix by scoring 102 points and it is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games after scoring 100 or more points. The rout is on here. 10* (506) Miami Heat |
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01-16-12 | Chicago Bulls v. Memphis Grizzlies +4 | Top | 86-102 | Win | 100 | 15 h 46 m | Show |
These teams played 12 days ago in Chicago and it was ugly. The Bulls defeated the Grizzlies by 40 points and it could have been a lot worse. Chicago outscored the Grizzlies by 13, 13 and 14 points in the first three quarters and once the starters were all out, the Bulls let up on the gas. Chicago shot just 46.4 percent including 38.5 percent from long range which is certainly good but it was the Memphis lack of offense that was the story as it shot just 31 percent including 11.1 percent from behind the arc.
Memphis totaled just 64 points which was easily its lowest output of the season and it was the first time it was held in the 60's since March of 2009 when it scored 66 points in Portland. "It was embarrassing and humiliating," Grizzlies head coach Lionel Hollins said. Don't think for a second that they won't use that result as some motivation on Monday. Memphis has won two straight games and looks for its first three-game winning streak since last April. The Bulls possess the best record in the NBA at 12-2 and are currently riding a five-game winning streak. While the start has been great, the schedule has had a lot to do with it as they have played some bottom of the barrel teams along the way. The fact that they have the best record in the league and are coming off a 40-point win in the first meeting, should get a lot of action on their side which has been the case already. Yet we are seeing a small line that is getting smaller and the reverse action is a take. Memphis is 4-2 at home and it has been a very strong team at the FedEx Forum of late as it is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 home games as well as going 14-4 ATS in its last 18 home games against teams with a winning record. The Grizzlies fall into a great situation as well as we play against road teams after two straight games where both teams scored 90 points or less going up against an opponent after scoring 105 points or more. This situation is 71-34 ATS (67.6 percent) since 1996. 10* (704) Memphis Grizzlies |
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01-12-12 | Orlando Magic v. Golden State Warriors UNDER 188.5 | Top | 117-109 | Loss | -106 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
Orlando is coming off a big road win last night at Portland as it shot lights out, hitting 58.6 percent from the floor including 59.3 percent from long range. Seven players scored in double-figures but don't expect a repeat of this tonight. This was its most complete game of the season and for a team that has struggled with consistency, putting together consecutive solid efforts on the offensive end is a stretch. The Magic have gone over in their first two games of this roadtrip which presents value on the under here.
Golden St. played on Tuesday against Miami and the Warriors came away with a win in overtime. That victory snapped a five-game losing streak and despite scoring 111 points, the offense was not very good again as Golden St. shot just 40 percent from the floor and it was held to 96 points in regulation. The Warriors have now gone seven straight games with 96 points or fewer on offense during regulation, averaging only 90 ppg over that stretch. The Miami game went over but it was under at the end of regulation. The times of Golden St. being a run and gun team have gone as it has averaging just over 189 ppg in its games this season. That is part of the reason we are seeing a total as low as it has taken the linesmakers a while to catch up. The Warriors are 6-3 to the under this season including five of six staying under at home. Orlando is 7-3 to the under this season even though the last two have gone over so it too has been keeping games low, averaging just above 188 ppg in its games. Because of the recent results, the value is on the low side here and both teams have solid histories in this situation. Orlando is 24-8 to the under in its last 32 games with a total between 180 and 189.5 points including 13-4 to the under on the road. Golden St. meanwhile is 13-3 to the under in its last 16 games coming off a win as a home underdog while going 18-6 to the under in its last 24 home games. This total is over 20 points less than the last meeting and it is this much lower for a reason. 10* Under (509) Orlando Magic/(510) Golden St. Warriors |
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01-11-12 | Philadelphia 76ers v. New York Knicks -4 | Top | 79-85 | Win | 100 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
We lost going against the Sixers last night but that won't stop us from going against them again on Wednesday as the situation sets up nicely. Philadelphia has won six straight games and with the exception of a win over Indiana, the streak is against teams not likely sniffing the playoffs this season. On top of it, the last four wins were all at home and the value comes into play considering that the Sixers covered all six of those games while winning five of those by double-digits.
After a slow start, the Knicks are playing much better as they have three straight wins of their own following a 1-4 beginning of the year. They too have defeated teams that likely won't be seeing the playoffs but part of the value comes from their side as well as they are just 2-7 against the spread which is keeping this number down in a good range. This is an excellent chance for a quality win as those have been few and far between with a victory against the Celtics on Christmas Day the only one to qualify. This is a rare stretch for the Sixers as it does not happen too often that a team in the NBA can go through a stretch like this with no letdowns. Playing in MSG tonight likely won't cause a letdown but they have had some good fortunes along the way. Last night, Kings leading scorer Marcus Thornton was a late scratch, the game before that, Pacers leading scorer Danny Granger was a late scratch, and the list goes on. They have played six such games with key players missing from the opposition. The Knicks fall into a great situation that has been a rare one that has not been in play in a few years. Play against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are allowing opponents to shoot 41 percent or less on the season, after three straight games of allowing 42 percent shooting or less. This contrarian situation is 23-5 ATS (82.1 percent) since 1996. while the Knicks have failed to get the cash this season, they are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games as favorites of fewer than five points. 10* (706) New York Knicks |
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01-10-12 | San Antonio Spurs v. Milwaukee Bucks +3 | Top | 103-106 | Win | 100 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
The home court has been a big advantage in games involving both San Antonio and Milwaukee as the host is a combined 17-0 on the season in their games. Both teams are undefeated at home and winless on the road and even with this, the Spurs come in as road favorites. San Antonio is coming off a loss at Oklahoma city on Sunday which followed three straight home wins and they head back home tomorrow for a revenge game against Houston as they lost the first meeting on the road by 20 points.
The schedule has been a tough one for Milwaukee as it is coming off a five-game roadtrip where it was unable to grab that first road victory of the season. It was a west coast trip on top of it to the competition was tough to begin with but the Bucks are now 0-6 on the road and the toughest thing for them is that four of those losses were by six points or less. They have played only twice at home and while this is their biggest test so far, not having played here in 10 days only adds to the motivation for Milwaukee. The Bucks have been shorthanded along the way also which has not helped things. Center Andrew Bogut, who left the team on an excused absence before the second game of the trip due to a family issue, is expected back Tuesday and his double-double average will be welcomed back. In the last game against Phoenix, starters Stephen Jackson, Drew Gooden and Brandon Jennings scored a combined 21 points, which was nearly half of their combined season average so expect a rebound from all three here. The Spurs are shorthanded as well as Manu Ginobili will be out for an extended period and Milwaukee is not upset about that as he averaged 24.5 ppg in the two wins against the Bucks last season. Milwaukee is 18-7 ATS in its last 25 home games following two or more consecutive losses, winning those games outright by an average of 5.6 ppg while going 5-1 ATS in its last six home games following a road trip that last for more than a week. The Spurs are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 road games. 10* (510) Milwaukee Bucks |
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01-08-12 | Minnesota Timberwolves v. Washington Wizards +3 | Top | 93-72 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 1 m | Show |
This line was a late opener due to the status of Michael Beasley and he is likely out which definitely helps the Wizards in this spot. Minnesota is just 2-5 on the season yet it is a road favorite which I feel is the wrong call here. The Timberwolves have had the benefit of the schedule giving them five straight home games and they are the only team in the league that has played fewer than two games on the road thus far. They were competitive against the Bucks in their only road game but the situation is much different now.
Washington is the lone remaining winless team in the NBA and that obviously makes it hungry for a victory. The Wizards have been competitive in a lot of their games though and the schedule has been a tough one with their last four games coming against the Celtics twice, the Magic and the Knicks. The offense has been the biggest liability as they are the fourth lowest scoring team in the league but this is an opportunity to turn that around. This is the worst start in franchise history for Washington and head coach Flip Saunders said in the Washington Post that his players have been upbeat and positive during practices but understand the frustrations of taking the painful lumps while figuring out how to play the right way. Today offers an opportunity for that. Minnesota is a road favorite for the first time since January of 2009 and despite playing a team that has yet to win a game, this is not the time for it to be back in that role. 10* (802) Washington Wizards |
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01-07-12 | Chicago Bulls -4 v. Atlanta Hawks | Top | 94-109 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 2 m | Show |
As much as we like taking a look at home underdogs that are playing with same season revenge, we have to buck the Hawks in this spot. Atlanta lost at Chicago on Tuesday by a bucket and while it certainly wants some payback, I don't see how it can get it in this horrendous spot. The Hawks are playing their third game in three nights and their fifth game in six nights so the schedule certainly does not favor a strong effort here. Making matters worse, Atlanta's last two games went into overtime.
The Bulls are coming off a win at Orlando last night and while they are playing in back-to-back mode as well, it is not nearly the same. While Atlanta is playing its fifth game since Monday, the Bulls are playing their fourth game even though it is a fourth game in five night scenario. Chicago now has won six straight games and the best part for them is that five of those were blowout wins and the bench got a lot of minutes meaning the starters have gotten more rest than normal. The back-to-back overtime games for the Hawks is the bug issue here. Four starters, Joe Johnson, Jeff Teague, John Smith and Al Horford have put in some major minutes the last two days. Respectively they have played 91, 86, 82 and 82 minutes over the last 48 hours and extrapolating that over what the average minutes are we are talking well over two games and close to two and a half games played the last two nights. Young or old, that puts a lot of strain on the legs over that stretch. Chicago has no issues winning on the road as it is now 5-1 away from home this season and it is no fluke as the Bulls went 26-15 on the road last season which was the second best road record in the Eastern Conference. The Hawks have struggled against such teams as they are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 home games against teams with a winning road percentage greater than .600. The Bulls have won five of the last six meetings going back to last season's playoff series and this one could be one of the easiest ones. 10* (503) Chicago Bulls |
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01-06-12 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Phoenix Suns +2.5 | Top | 77-102 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
We got a win with the Blazers last night against the Lakers as the Rose Garden remains a house of horrors for Los Angeles as it dropped to 6-30 in its last 30 games there including 2-11 in its last 13. The Lakers game is always a big deal for Portland and last night was no exception so coming off a big nationally televised game and hitting the road the next night spells a big letdown for the Blazers. They are off to a great start at 5-1 but this is just their third road game of the season.
Phoenix meanwhile is not off to a great start as it is 2-4 through six games and the problem has been a number of things. The Suns are not shooting the ball well and are allowing too many offensive redounds on the other side and that has hurt the transition game. At 93.6 possessions per game, the Suns' are ranked 24th in the NBA and ahead of only New Orleans in the Western Conference. This comes after being fourth in the NBA in possessions per game a season ago. In their last game on Wednesday against Dallas, the score was tied after the first quarter but the Suns missed 12 of their first 15 shots in the second and that was it. The failure to execute is when Nash leaves the game is the big issue as Phoenix was outscored by 20 points in the 11:24 that Nash did not play Wednesday. His numbers are way down this season and it can be attributed to the aforementioned lack of a transition game as well as poor shooting on his part. He will get better. The Blazers were fortunate on Thursday as the Lakers went 0-11 from long range but still managed to outshoot Portland. The Blazers have been very efficient and it was evidenced last night with only four turnovers. Don't expect either of these to happen tonight. This is the first meeting in this series this season and the home team is 5-2 ATS the last seven meetings. Portland is just 1-5 ATS in its last six road games while the Suns are 61-40 ATS in their last 101 games after playing their previous game on the road. 10* (822) Phoenix Suns |
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01-05-12 | Los Angeles Lakers v. Portland Trail Blazers -3.5 | Top | 96-107 | Win | 100 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
The Lakers opened the season 0-2 but they have since turned things around with a 4-1 run to move over .500. Things won't be easy here though as Los Angeles is winless on the road and heads to another tough road environment in the Western Conference. The home court has been a big advantage so far this season as home teams are 53-39-1 ATS which is close to a 58 percent success rate. This is eventually going to even out but because the road team here is a public team, there is no value lost on the home team.
Portland is 4-1 on the year including a perfect 3-0 record at home. The Blazers are coming off a big road win at Oklahoma City and while the situational edge was on their side for that game, it was a victory that can go a long way. Many predicted the Blazers to be a possible sleeper in the Western Conference and that has held true to form so far, even though it is early. Portland is one of only four teams in the NBA to rank in the top 10 in points scored and allowed so it has been a justifiable start. Portland is a better team this season so the numbers don't lie. Gerald Wallace was a big pickup at the end of last season and is averaging 14.4 ppg on 50 percent shooting while brand new pickup Jamal Crawford is averaging 14.2 ppg off the bench. The Blazers are able to run more and create more shots as they are averaging 99.2 possessions, fourth most in the NBA, which is up from 91.2 from a season ago, dead last in the league. The Blazers have actually been last in the NBA the last three years. The Blazers' new uptempo offense has scored 100 or more points in four of its first five games for the first time since 1992-93. The Lakers have not had a lot of success in Portland as they are just 6-23 in their last 29 games at the Rose Garden including a 2-10 record over their last 12 games. This is the only meeting in Portland this season so the Blazers will be hungry for the win. The big spotlight games have been solid for Portland as it is 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 Thursday night TNT games. 10* (508) Portland Trailblazers |
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01-03-12 | Charlotte Bobcats +4.5 v. Cleveland Cavaliers | Top | 101-115 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
After winning its season opener, the Bobcats have lost their last three games and their 1-3 record is a big factor for where this line is at. The schedule has certainly played a role as Charlotte have faced the Heat twice and Orlando once over the last six days so the fact that it is 1-3 really comes as no surprise. The last game came on Sunday as the Bobcats went to Miami and were absolutely crushed as they lost by 39 points as they never led and actually were down by 46 points at one stage in the game.
Cleveland is 2-2 to start the year and while much isn't expected of the Cavaliers again this season, the start has to be encouraging. After last season's disaster, anything positive is good sign going forward. However I don't think this line is in the right spot though as the Cavaliers were favored against Toronto and New Jersey by less even though both of those teams are likely going to be worse than the Bobcats this season in my opinion. Early season value is in place here. The Cavaliers have been living and dying by the three-point shot and that is not a way to survive in this league. They have gone 11-45 (24.4 percent) from long range in their two losses while going 23-38 (60.5 percent) in their two wins. They made 16 three-pointers in their last game against New Jersey which was one shy of a team record and we certainly will not be seeing that type of success here. The Bobcats have one of the worst three-point shooting defenses in the NBA but it is too early to validate it. These teams squared off here toward the end of last season and Charlotte actually came in as the road favorite and I don't feel enough has changed since then to warrant a five-point line swing. The Bobcats are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games after failing to cover the spread in two or more consecutive games. Also, Charlotte is 4-0 ATS in its last four games as a road underdog of fewer than five points while Cleveland is 1-5 ATS in its last six games as a favorite of fewer than five points. 10* (501) Charlotte Bobcats |
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01-02-12 | Indiana Pacers v. New Jersey Nets +6 | Top | 108-94 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 23 m | Show |
After a three-game roadtrip, the Nets are back home to try and halt a four-game losing skid as well as to try and grab its first home win of the season. New Jersey has played only one game at home and that came against Atlanta last Tuesday and it was blown out by 36 points which sets up both line value and motivation for today. The offense has been horrible so far this season and the Nets are coming off a 16-point loss on the road last night at Cleveland, shooting only 38 percent from the floor.
Indiana lost its first game of the season last time out at Detroit on New Year's eve and while we played against the Pacers then, we will be going against them once again here as a bigger road chalk. I consider the Pistons to be the worst tram in the NBA yet Indiana was favored by three points less in that game than it is here. The Pacers have owned this series with seven straight wins as well as seven straight covers but that is not important when they are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games against teams with a losing home record. 10* (708) New Jersey Nets |
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01-01-12 | Dallas Mavericks v. Minnesota Timberwolves +3 | Top | 82-99 | Win | 100 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
Minnesota is 0-3 to start the season but this is a very improved team. All three losses have been by four points or fewer including both games at home against Miami and Oklahoma City, arguably the two best teams from their respective conferences. Facing the reigning World Champions only adds to that schedule strength although this one could be considered the easiest of the bunch. The Timberwolves won their first game after just two games a season ago and this is where they break through.
Dallas is feeling the NBA Champion hangover. Or simply they are far from as good as the same team from last season. I think it is a little bit of both as the losses that the Mavericks have encountered have been bigger than once perceived. They have also played a brutal schedule by facing both the Heat and Thunder in addition to Denver, another top team in the Western Conference. Dallas has improved along the way as each game has gotten better but this is a tough opening. Minnesota lost by just two points to the Heat last time out and it was the bench that carried them. Kevin Love was the only starter to hit double figures in scoring but five reserves all scored 10 or more points and the depth of this team could carry them further than most think. The Timberwolves could be catching Dallas at the right time as the Mavericks are coming off their first win of the season and have a revenge game at home tomorrow against Oklahoma City. We played against Dallas last Sunday which was part of a system that goes against the defending NBA Champions the first two weeks of the new season. Prior to Dallas. the last nine NBA Champions (Boston, San Antonio, Miami, San Antonio, Detroit, San Antonio and LA Lakers three times) have combined for a 30-52 ATS mark (36.6 percent) through their first two weeks of the following year. Look for the Timberwolves to get their first win of the season tonight. 10* (810) Minnesota Timberwolves |
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12-31-11 | Indiana Pacers v. Detroit Pistons +2.5 | Top | 88-96 | Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
We played against Detroit last night and won as the Pistons were hammered in Boston, trailing by as many as 25 points before a big fourth quarter made the final score more respectable. While it was a play against Detroit Friday, it was more of a play on Boston as the Celtics came into their game 0-3 with that being their first home game. The big factor last night was the inability to hit from long range as the Pistons were just 3-16 (18.8 percent) outside the arc while the defense allowed Boston to shoot 52.2 percent.
Detroit did do some good things last night as they were 14-15 from the free throw line while posting a 2.00 assist/turnover ratio as it committed just nine turnovers. Heading back home for just their second home game of the season, I expect the Pistons to rebound. Detroit is not a good team and it is going to struggle a lot but this NBA season, situational plays are even more important and with both teams playing last night, we give the edge to the home team. The Pacers are off to a 3-0 start following a win last night at home against lowly Cleveland. Even though the season is very young, Indiana has had a fortunate early season schedule as it has played the 28th toughest schedule in the NBA thus far. One of those wins came against Detroit at home in a game that the Pacers never trailed in and cruised to an easy win. That sets up an early revenge situation for the Pistons who get Charles Villanueva back after serving his three-game suspension. The public is hammering Indiana but the line has come down showing a significant reverse line move which is a big take for the home team. The home team won all four meetings last season so even when the Pistons were dreadful last year, they were able to take care of business at home. The Pacers are in a very unfavorable situation for the first time this season as they are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games playing with no rest and 3-12 ATS in their last 15 road games playing their third game in four nights. 10* (504) Detroit Pistons |
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12-30-11 | Houston Rockets v. Memphis Grizzlies -5.5 | Top | 93-113 | Win | 100 | 9 h 13 m | Show |
We played on Memphis Wednesday night against the Thunder and it dropped a three-point game in a frustrating loss. The Grizzlies outshot Oklahoma City in that game but the long range shooting was the difference as Memphis was only 2-16 from behind the arc and it made eight fewer three-point shots than Oklahoma City did which ended up being the difference. The Grizzlies are now 0-2 as they suffered an opening loss at San Antonio which was a big revenge situation for the Spurs.
The Rockets came through for us last night as they never trailed in a wire-to-wire cover against the Spurs. While that was a great spot for Houston, that is not the case tonight. The Rockets opening game was on the road at Orlando on Monday and while that game was pretty close throughout, it never should have been. The Magic shot 53 percent from the floor but made it to the free throw line only 10 times and that is where Houston was able to take advantage despite shooting only 43.9 percent for the game. Despite the loss on Wednesday, Memphis showed a lot of improvement from its opener. "We did a lot of things better than we did against San Antonio," said center Marc Gasol. "The effort was better and the Forum helped us a lot. Turnovers were down. There |
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12-29-11 | San Antonio Spurs v. Houston Rockets +2.5 | Top | 85-105 | Win | 100 | 9 h 16 m | Show |
We won with San Antonio on Monday as it defeated Memphis in a revenge spot going back to last season's playoffs. The Spurs are coming off another win, this one from last night as they easily took out the Clippers at home. They now head out on the road for the first time this season which now makes them in a very vulnerable spot. I mentioned pm Monday that the shortened season may help San Antonio early but could very well hurt them late because they are an old team. No rest games is also a disadvantage.
Houston has had the luxury of two days off since losing at Orlando in its opening game. The Rockets struggled to hit long range shots as they went just 6-27 (22.2 percent) from behind the arc led by Kevin Martin putting a 0-6 goose egg. Other than that, it was not a bad game for Houston as it put down 85 percent of their free throws, won the battle of the boards and posted a fantastic 2.6 assist/turnover ratio. Now the Rockets are back in Houston for their home opener. While the Spurs have looked great in their first two games, it is hard for any team in this league to keep up that pace and letdowns are certainly bound to happen. Even Manu Ginobili isn't sure what's going on. "I didn't think that the team was ready to have two games like this," Ginobili said. "We're looking sharp, but I don't want to get too confident. I don't think it's fair or it's true. We still have a long way to go. It just so happened we played two very good games." The Spurs have not opened a season 3-0 since 2007-08 and I don't expect them to match that here. Houston is a middle of the pack team in the Western Conference as its season win total was right around 33, making it a predicted .500 team. The Rockets are still a very good team at home and going back to last season they are 12-4 ATS when coming off a loss against the spread. They are also 11-2 ATS in their last 13 December home games and they get off to a solid start at home on Thursday. 10* (504) Houston Rockets |
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12-28-11 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Memphis Grizzlies +1.5 | Top | 98-95 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
We played against Memphis in its season opener against San Antonio as the revenge factor for the Spurs was the key to that play. Now that revenge situation is on the side of the Grizzlies as they will look to avenge their loss in last year's Western Conference Semifinals in seven games to the Thunder. This is also the home opener for Memphis and the FedEx Forum has quietly become a strong home court advantage as the Grizzlies went 30-11 there last season, one of only nine teams to win at least 30 games at home.
Oklahoma City is off to a 2-0 start as it has recorded a home win over Orlando and snuck out a road victory against Minnesota. The Thunder are a very popular pick to represent the Western Conference in the NBA Finals this season and with the Mavericks and Lakers not looking up to par in the early going, it is a definite possibility. Oklahoma City lost to Dallas in the Western Conference Finals a season ago and with a home game against Dallas tomorrow night, we have a lookahead revenge spot for the Thunder. These are two of the youngest teams in the NBA with the greatest upside and one key piece that is in place for the Grizzlies is Rudy Gay who did not play in the series against Oklahoma City last season and played in his first game on Monday since last February. He had 19 points and 10 boards against the Spurs and he has had great success in his limited action against Oklahoma City as he has averaged 24.3 ppg in his last four games against the Thunder. Oklahoma City won a triple-overtime game at Memphis in the playoffs last season and that has been the only win in its last six games at the FedEx Forum so that makes the home underdog price that much more appealing. The Grizzlies are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 home games against teams with a road winning percentage great than .600 and they are 23-5 ATS in their last 28 games coming off a road loss. Memphis is also 17-6 ATS in its last 23 games after scoring 85 or fewer points last time out. 10* (712) Memphis Grizzlies |
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12-25-11 | Miami Heat -4.5 v. Dallas Mavericks | Top | 105-94 | Win | 100 | 3 h 16 m | Show |
This is one of the best scenarios to go against on opening day. It is banner day in Dallas and we know what that means. The Mavericks will be lowering their 2010-11 NBA Championship banner on Sunday on opening day and playing a basketball game is not at the forefront for the players right now. This is a huge day and with that comes a lot of distractions. Players have been saying that once the banner is lowered and the game starts, they will be focused but that is easier said than done.
Dirk Nowitzki said he can't wait for the banner to be unveiled. "I always said that the banner raising is probably one of the best days of my life -- working for something for so long and being there with my teammates and the coaches and obviously the fans there, it's going to be something special,'' he said. Enough said. Add to that the fact that Miami was the team that fell victim to the Mavericks and we have an even stronger scenario going on Christmas Day in Dallas. Now let |
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06-12-11 | Dallas Mavericks v. Miami Heat UNDER 187 | Top | 105-95 | Loss | -103 | 63 h 17 m | Show |
As expected, after two very low scoring games, we saw Game Five exceed the total by over 30 points as the 'over' easily cashed. Now that the series has seen its highest scoring game, and for the first time a 100-point effort from a team as well, we will be going back the other way as the series shifts back to Miami. The linesmakers made a pretty big adjustment from the Game Five closing number as their hands were tied and expect the public money to come onto the 'over' based on that last game.
Not only did one team surpass the century mark for the first time in this series, both teams did. Neither team could miss from the floor no matter what defense was thrown at them and this was definitely an aberration based on the first four games but we took advantage of it at the right time. Both offenses are strong and they were due for big games but the defenses have been the deciding factor the majority of the time and we will see those units take over back in Miami. One thing that did not change on Thursday was the pace of the game and it actually slowed down some. Shots were simply going in, especially from long range where Dallas was 13-19 and Miami was 8-20 and those 21 combined three-pointers were one short of the previous two games combined. The pace of the first four games was close to identical as there were 147, 148, 148 and 148 shot attempts but in Game Six, there were just 139 shots hoisted. There is no need to be concerned about the style of play changing. This is a must win game for Miami which is their its situation like this in the playoffs as it has yet to be on the brink of elimination. That means the defense will be on display as Miami is 8-1 to the 'under' in its last nine games after allowing 100 or more points in its previous game. The first and only time it happened in the playoffs, it allowed 75 point to Chicago next time out. Also, history is back as we play the 'under' where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points in the finals. This situation is 24-5 (82.8%) since 1996. 10* Under (711) Dallas Mavericks/(712) Miami Heat |
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06-09-11 | Miami Heat v. Dallas Mavericks OVER 184.5 | Top | 103-112 | Win | 100 | 26 h 14 m | Show |
The 'under' has come in with ease in the first two games of this series in Dallas and that is providing us with excellent value going the other way for Game Five. We are catching the lowest total in this series thus far and based on the bounce, or the zig zag, this game should be able to surpass it. We took the 'under' in Game Three and that easily stayed below the number and the big reason for the play was because of the history of low scoring games in the Finals in this parameter but I feel that finally breaks here.
The two defenses have been playing exceptional as neither offense has been able to get in rhythm at all. The thing is that both teams can score and they do have the capability of putting up big numbers. Both are averaging right around 100 ppg and both are shooting in excess of 47 percent and while we have only seen these percentages once in this series, Game Two, the situation calls for it here. This is the third straight game being played in Dallas and the acclimation will help the offenses of both sides. LeBron James is coming off a horrible game where he scored just eight points on 3-11 shooting. It is a pretty safe bet that he comes out strong on the offensive end and makes amends. On the other side Dirk Nowitzki carried the Mavericks in their comeback but he made only six of 19 shots and was extremely sick with a sinus infection throughout. He finished with 21 points but it was a below average performance and with this being the pivotal Game Five, breakout games from them will also help the offenses around them. Miami is 10-1 to the 'over' in its last 11 games after scoring 90 points or less in two straight games. On Tuesday, the Heat shot just 14.3 percent from long range but that helps us here as they are 8-0 to the 'over' this season coming off a game where they shot 20 percent or less of their three-pointers. Dallas meanwhile is 10-1 to the 'over' in its last 11 games after allowing 90 points or fewer in two straight games while going 15-5 to the 'over' in its last 20 games following a win of three points or less. 10* Over (709) Miami Heat/(710) Dallas Mavericks |
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06-07-11 | Miami Heat v. Dallas Mavericks -3 | Top | 83-86 | Push | 0 | 14 h 26 m | Show |
Dallas lost a tough one on Sunday with a chance to take control of this series. Instead, the teams are back to regular home court status but the Mavericks are pretty much in a must win spot on Tuesday. A loss here means trailing this series 3-1 and it would be highly unlikely to come back from that despite owning a 2-1 edge in game played in Miami this season. Must wins usually come with pressure involved but this Dallas team is playing with confidence and it knows it can tie this series up.
Miami has looked like the dominant team thus far but the Mavericks have not backed down once. The Heat have repeatedly built double-digit cushions, and a late collapse in Game Two is all that's keeping them from the lead that's never been blown in an NBA series. All it takes is a Dallas effort of not falling down by big margins as it has done in the first three games, falling down by 12, 15 and 14 points in those games respectively. It may be easier said than done but the Mavericks can do just that. The Mavericks are shooting only 42 percent from the field and 38.3 percent from three-point range in this series. Ball movement, or lack thereof, has been a major issue for Dallas and a lot of this is on the shoulder of the role players. Dirk Nowitzki is having a spectacular series but Dallas needs other players to step up in order to give him the opportunity to create. The Mavericks are accustomed to getting a push off the bench from Peja Stojakovic and J.J. Barea and it has not happened. Now is the time. Dallas falls into a solid situation here as well. This simple yet effective scenario says to play on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are coming off a loss as a favorite, in a game involving two teams with winning percentages between .600 and .750. This situation is 51-19 ATS (72.9 percent) since 1996. The Mavericks have responded well after a defeat as they are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a loss. This includes a perfect 4-0 so far in the playoffs. 10* (708) Dallas Mavericks |