Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-09-15 | Phoenix Suns v. San Antonio Spurs -5 | Top | 95-100 | Push | 0 | 14 h 31 m | Show |
Not many would have expected Phoenix and San Antonio to have the same records at this point of the season but that is the case. The Suns have won four games in a row to move to six games over .500 and are currently tied with the Spurs for seventh place in the Western Conference, just percentage points behind. They are coming off a closer than expected win against Minnesota on Wednesday as they beat the lowly Timberwolves by just a bucket and while they are on a roll, they head to San Antonio at the wrong time. The Spurs lost to Detroit at home on Tuesday by a point on a last second winning shot by the Pistons. That snapped a modest two-game winning streak while also snapping a three-game home winning streak but they should bounce back here. Tony Parker returned last game but went easy as he played just 12 minutes and rested the second half while not even scoring so we will see more production from him. While San Antonio has six home losses, two have been by a single point and the other four came in overtime. They will be out for revenge following a loss in Phoenix earlier in the season and going back, the Spurs are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 home games against teams with a winning road record. 10* (816) San Antonio Spurs |
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01-09-15 | Utah Jazz v. Oklahoma City Thunder -11.5 | Top | 94-99 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
The Thunder are in a very favorable spot on Friday as they look to bounce back from a two-game losing streak with losses against Golden St. and Sacramento by 26 and 21 points. Oklahoma City is riding a three-game winning streak at home and in home games that Kevin Durant has played in, it is a perfect 4-0 while going just 4-4 in his eight road games. Even though he and Russell Westbrook were not around for most of the season, the Thunder are still very much in the playoff picture and losing these types of game is not acceptable. Oklahoma City is off until next Thursday so there will be full focus here. Utah meanwhile is coming off a win at Chicago by 20 points as an 11-point underdog but it has not been good with the momentum as it is just 4-8 ATS following a win this season. To their credit, the Jazz have been solid on the road against winning teams as they are 7-2 ATS but it needs to be noted that none of those came right after a road victory. While Oklahoma City has not covered in any of its last five games, it is 4-1 ATS in its last five home games against teams with a losing road record and the home team is 11-1 ATS over the last 12 meetings in this series. 10* (810) Oklahoma City Thunder |
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01-08-15 | Charlotte Hornets v. Toronto Raptors UNDER 200.5 | Top | 103-95 | Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
Charlotte won its third consecutive game last night and while doing so, also went over for the third straight game. Those totals were all less than what the Hornets are seeing tonight and all of that is due to the opposition but we are still presented with some awesome value. While the over is 16-5 in Charlotte's 21 games where the total is less than 195, the under is 11-5 when the total is 195 or greater including 5-2 at 200 or higher. Additionally, Charlotte is 21-10 to the under after successfully covering the spread in two or more consecutive games while the under is 5-2 in the Hornets last seven road games against teams with a winning home record. Toronto has gone over the total in two straight games and on the season, the over is 21-13 however 13 of those overs came on the road as the Raptors defense stiffens up considerable at home where they allow 95.4 ppg compared to 108 ppg on the road. Toronto is 19-7 to the under in its last 26 home games after allowing 110 points or more two straight games while the under is 5-2 in the Raptors last seven home games following a road trip of seven or more days. As far as pace goes, both are slower than average as Toronto is 16th with 97.9 possessions per game while Charlotte is 20th with 97.3 possessions per game. 10* Under (501) Charlotte Hornets/(502) Toronto Raptors |
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01-07-15 | New Orleans Pelicans -4 v. Charlotte Hornets | Top | 94-98 | Loss | -108 | 14 h 22 m | Show |
We played against New Orleans on Monday as it hosted Washington and the Pelicans were in a very bad spot there, resulting in a loss. That now puts them in a good spot on Wednesday as they head to Charlotte to once again try and get back over .500. New Orleans is two games out in the Western Conference playoff race and while the season is still young, these are the types of games that really count. New Orleans is 12-4 straight up and 11-5 ATS following a loss this season. Charlotte meanwhile has won two straight games, both on the road no less, but those came against Orlando and Boston which are 11 and 10 games under .500 respectively. The Hornets are an even worse 12 games under .500 and while their home record is slightly better than New Orleans' road record, Charlotte has won just three of 16 gamers against the Western Conference this season. Additionally, the Hornets have won only five of 20 games when playing with one day of rest and they are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 home games. The Pelicans meanwhile have covered six of their last seven road games and have owned this series by going 16-4-1 ATS over the last 21 meetings. I will gladly take the better team in the better situation against a team that is 4-17 against the league's top 16 teams and 0-7 as a home underdog. 10* (703) New Orleans Hornets |
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01-07-15 | Milwaukee Bucks v. Philadelphia 76ers OVER 195 | Top | 97-77 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
Milwaukee is coming off another low scoring game last night as it has now gone under the total in seven straight games. Tonight presents a great opportunity to break that streak as this one sets up good for a high scoring affair. The Bucks offense has been stuck in neutral the last four games, scoring no more than 96 points but now they face a Sixers defense that is allowing 104 ppg and has given up at least 112 points in four of their last six games. They are coming off a solid defensive effort last time out against the Cavaliers as they allowed just 92 points but putting together back-to-back strong efforts on defense has been a rarity. Philadelphia is coming off an under in that game against Cleveland but it has gone 9-3 to the over in its last 12 games following a game that went under the total. The Sixers offense has not reached 100 points since December 13th but that could change here as Milwaukee is allowing 99.5 ppg on the road and the over is 10-4 in the Bucks last 14 road games against teams with a losing home record. Meanwhile, the over is 5-1 in the Sixers last six home games against teams with a winning road record. As far as pace goes, the Sixers and Bucks are averaging 100.7 and 98.8 possessions per game respectively, 4th and 11th most in the league. 10* Over (705) Milwaukee Bucks/(706) Philadelphia 76ers |
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01-06-15 | Detroit Pistons v. San Antonio Spurs OVER 198.5 | Top | 105-104 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
Detroit has won five straight games, all being covers as well as the offense has hit its stride, averaging 108.4 ppg and the defense is not far behind as it has improved as well, allowing just 90.2 ppg. Facing a majority of bad teams will do that however and while I expect the offense to keep going, the defense will be in for a tough time on Tuesday. Because of the stifling defense of late, the Pistons have stayed under the total in their last four games. The Spurs meanwhile have stayed under the total in three straight games as the defense has been playing well while the offense has been below its season averages leading up to it. This line came out late due to the uncertainty of Tony Parker and while he likely will not go, the possibility is only a added benefit. As mentioned, Detroit has not played many good teams during its run and it is 8-1 to the over in its last nine games against teams with a winning record. Meanwhile the Spurs have played three solid teams during their under run and going back, they are 10-1 to the over in their last 11 games against teams with a losing record while the over is 10-2 in the Spurs last 12 home games. 10* Over (503) Detroit Pistons/(504) San Antonio Spurs |
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01-05-15 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Golden State Warriors UNDER 218 | Top | 91-117 | Win | 100 | 15 h 21 m | Show |
We are definitely going against the grain in this one as everyone sees a trackmeet between Oklahoma City and Golden St. but the value here is too hard to pass up going the other way. These teams met just over two weeks ago and while that game in Golden St. surpassed the total, it would not have if tonight's number was in place as the over/under has gone from 211.5 to 218 in a span of 17 days, which is too big of an adjustment. A lot of that is due to recent games as Oklahoma Coty has gone over in three straight and five of six while Golden St. has gone over in two straight and five of seven. The Warriors falls into a great totals spot as we play the under where the total is greater than or equal to 210 involving a team that is averaging 102 or more ppg going up against teams allowing between 92 and 98 ppg, after a combined score of 205 points or more two straight games. This situation is 31-9 (77.5 percent) to the under the last five seasons. Additionally, Golden St. is 20-9 to the under in its last 29 games after scoring 100 points or more three straight games while the under is 21-7 in Oklahoma City's last 28 games playing on two days rest. 10* Under (721) Oklahoma City Thunder/(722) Golden St. Warriors |
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01-05-15 | Washington Wizards +3 v. New Orleans Pelicans | Top | 92-85 | Win | 100 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
Washington opened this Western Conference swing roadtrip with a win over Houston but it has dropped its last three games but those games came against Dallas, San Antonio and a fully healthy Oklahoma City. This is the final game of this trip and I expect the Wizards to close with a win but will gladly grab the generous points. New Orleans is over .500 once again following a 28-point rout over Houston on Friday which was its fifth straight cover. That is a streak I like going against and because they are favored, the Pelicans are obviously being asked to win but they are 0-4 in their last four games following a victory. Two situations are on our side. First, we play against home favorites revenging a loss where team scored less than 85 points going up against an opponent off two or more consecutive road losses. This situation is 94-49 ATS (65.7 percent) since 1996. Second, we play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are averaging between 98 and 102 ppg going up against teams allowing between 98 102 ppg, after allowing 100 points or more two straight games. This situation is 25-3 ATS (89.3 percent) over the last five seasons. Additionally, Washington is 10-0 ATS in its last 10 road games after scoring 55 points or more in the first half in two straight games. 10* (711) Washington Wizards |
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01-04-15 | Brooklyn Nets v. Miami Heat +2.5 | Top | 84-88 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
Brooklyn and Miami are going in opposite directions which is providing a solid line for the home team in a great bounce back situation. The Heat are coming off a 36-point loss at Houston last night, easily their worst loss of the season and their worst loss since 2010. losing like that is certainly no good but it is a great motivator moving forward and the lone good news from last night is the fact that the starters so plenty of rest as the game was done early in the third quarter. Brooklyn meanwhile has won three straight games and six of its last seven to get back to .500 as the offense has picked things up. But the Miami defense has been pretty solid all season and as far as pace, the Heat allow the fewest amount of shot attempts in the NBA. The Nets last win came in Orlando by a bucket as they nearly blew a 26-point lead and I don't think that bodes well going forward. Miami falls into a solid situation as we play against teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are revenging a home loss against opponent with that opponent coming off a road loss by 10 points or more. This situation is 42-15 ATS (73.7 percent) over the last five seasons. Additionally, the Heat are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a loss of more than 10 points. 10* (804) Miami Heat |
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01-03-15 | Philadelphia 76ers v. Los Angeles Clippers OVER 206 | Top | 91-127 | Win | 100 | 14 h 36 m | Show |
After winning the first two games of this current roadtrip against Orlando and Miami, the Sixers have lost the last four games all by at least 16 points. The defense has been to blame as they have allowed 112, 114 and 126 points in three of those losses and I expect another high scoring affair tonight. The Clippers have won three of their last four games including two straight on this current homestand and all four of these games have stayed under the total. The defense has played well the last two games but this is the type of game the Clippers may not put a full effort into and while they are an average pace team, the Sixers are the third fastest by averaging 101 possessions per game. So it would not be surprising to see Los Angeles go along with that. The last meeting here a season ago had a total of 219.5 so we are seeing a big difference this time around. The Clippers are 8-0 to the over in their last eight games after a game forcing opponent to commit eight or less turnovers while the over is 7-1 in the Sixers last eight games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. 10* Over (515) Philadelphia 76ers/(516) Los Angeles Clippers |
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01-02-15 | Washington Wizards +7.5 v. Oklahoma City Thunder | Top | 102-109 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show |
This line came out late due to the uncertainty of Bradley Beal as he injured a toe in the Wizards last game at Dallas. They lost by 27 points in that one as the Mavericks built an 18-point halftime lead and never looked back so we can expect a bounce back tonight. Washington is off to a 22-9 start and while it has played a relatively easy schedule, the fact it is 7-3 against the Western Conference including wins over the Rockets, Clippers and Pelicans so they can hang with some solid opposition. The Thunder are looking to make a playoff push after a poor start to the season because of injuries and they have won three of their last four games including a win over Phoenix in overtime New Year's Eve. I feel Oklahoma City is overvalued however as it is a public team to begin with but should not be favored this much over a quality team. Case in point, the Thunder were favored by 6.5 points at home against Charlotte the day after Christmas and now they are favored by a bigger number against a team that is 13 games better than the Hornets. In the game here last season, Washington was getting only one point more than it is getting tonight and this year's version is much better than last year's version that took the floor here in November. Here, we play on road underdogs after a loss by 20 points or more going up against an opponent after a combined score of 215 points or more two straight games. This situation is 45-15 ATS (75 percent) since 1996. 10* (811) Washington Wizards |
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01-01-15 | Sacramento Kings v. Minnesota Timberwolves OVER 209 | Top | 110-107 | Win | 100 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
The possibility of a DeMarcus Cousins suspension caused this line to come out late but whether or not he plays, this game should turn into a trackmeet. Sacramento has lost two straight games and has allowed at least 101 points in eight straight games but is coming off a poor offensive effort yesterday against Boston which will reverse out here. Sacramento managed just 36.8 percent shooting including going 2-15 from long range against a bad Celtics defense but now it faces an even worse stop unit. Minnesota has allowed at least 100 points in nine straight games, all of which have been losses but the last three have stayed under the total which helps add value today. Both offenses should rise to the occasion today against these poor defenses that allow 108.7 ppg and 104.1 ppg. From a pace standpoint, both teams are fast as they are two of just nine teams in the NBA that average 99 or more possessions per game. The over is 14-6 in the Kings last 20 games against teams with a winning percentage below .400 while the over is 13-6 in the Timberwolves last 19 games playing on one day rest. 10* Over (503) Sacramento Kings/(504) Minnesota Timberwolves |
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12-31-14 | New Orleans Pelicans v. San Antonio Spurs -3.5 | Top | 93-95 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
This line came out late due to status of Tony Parker and Kawhi Leonard, neither of which will be playing tonight. It has been a struggle for San Antonio of late as injuries have taken their toll and they are coming off another loss last night in Memphis to drop them to 4-9 over their last 13 games. They have been inconsistent on both ends of the floor and speaking of inconsistent, the main offensive production of three players has been just as bad. After combining for 55 points in the win over Houston on Sunday, the trio of Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili and Danny Green combined for just 21 points in the loss against Memphis last night. They obviously need those three to step up in the absence of Parker and Leonard. New Orleans won for us last night over Phoenix and it was a grind as the Pelicans won by four points. They are now a game over .500 on the season but while they are 10-4 at home they are just 6-11 on the road and they are in a difficult spot coming off a win and San Antonio coming off a loss. While New Orleans has covered every game in the second of a back-to-back set, the motivational edge for the Spurs is too big as they need to right the ship as well as get some payback from a loss against the Pelicans the day after Christmas. 10* (710) San Antonio Spurs |
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12-30-14 | Phoenix Suns v. New Orleans Pelicans -1.5 | Top | 106-110 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
The Suns have won their last six games, which is a season high and five of those have come on the highway but I expect that streak to come to an end tonight. Winning five straight road games is certainly impressive but the level of competition has been a step below average with the exception of a win at Washington last week. Phoenix is coming off a win over the Lakers Sunday which made it six straight covers as well but it has a revenge game on deck tomorrow night at Oklahoma City where it lost by 24 points 16 days ago. New Orleans is playing some decent basketball and can get back over .500 with a victory tonight. One of the issues with the Pelicans this season has been their consistency as their longest winning streak is just two games but on the other hand, their longest losing streak is just three games which has happened only once. They are coming off a loss at Chicago and on the season, they are 10-4 following a loss while covering nine of those games. The Suns swept the Pelicans 4-0 last season so there will be some payback in mind as well and while New Orleans has San Antonio on deck for tomorrow, that is actually a revenge game for the Spurs. Additionally, we play against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 after two or more consecutive overs and averaging 102 or more ppg going up against teams allowing between 98 and 102 ppg. This situation is 33-12 ATS (73.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (510) New Orleans Pelicans |
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12-29-14 | Sacramento Kings v. Brooklyn Nets UNDER 204.5 | Top | 99-107 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
We are catching another great totals situation tonight as we have two teams on recent runs that we will go against based on the contrarian factor along with over/under value. Sacramento hits the road to open a four-game east coast roadtrip starting in Brooklyn tonight and the Kings are riding a five-game over streak. However, the last game went into overtime while the majority of those games came against some of the faster paced teams in the NBA. Now they will face one of the slower teams in the league as the Nets are averaging 96.8 possessions per game, the eighth fewest. Brooklyn meanwhile has gone over in two straight games, one of those against the Celtics which are tied for the most possessions in the league and the other against Indiana which was able to shoot over 51 percent from the floor. The under is 9-1 in the Nets last 10 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game and I certainly expect a better defensive effort after allowing 86 and 87 shots the last two games. We also have a great league wide totals situation in play as we play the under involving one team after two or more consecutive overs going up against an opponent after five or more consecutive overs. This situation is 60-25 (70.6 percent) to the under the last five seasons. 10* Under (707) Sacramento Kings/(708) Brooklyn Nets |
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12-28-14 | Toronto Raptors v. Denver Nuggets OVER 210 | Top | 116-102 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
While injuries are marring to majority of the Sunday NBA card, there are no recent injury issues in this game and we are making a play similar to the one last night in Chicago. Toronto is coming off a win last night in Los Angeles against the Clippers in a game that stayed under the total albeit by not much. Prior to that, the Raptors had gone over the total in three straight games and while we are dealing with a high number tonight, it is lower than last night against a team that is much faster paces. The Clippers average 161.9 shot attempts per game while the Nuggets are averaging 171.3 shot attempts per game and those 10 extra shots are huge especially with a lower total. Denver has gone under in five straight games because the offense has sputtered the majority of the time but we could very well see a big effort tonight against a Raptors team that is playing with no rest and has gone 5-2 to the over in previous seven games playing with no rest. Additionally, Toronto is 10-3 to the over on the road this season and 15-4 to the over in its last 19 games against teams allowing 103 or more ppg. 10* Over (807) Toronto Raptors/(808) Denver Nuggets |
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12-27-14 | New Orleans Pelicans v. Chicago Bulls OVER 201.5 | Top | 100-107 | Win | 100 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
New Orleans is coming off a big win over San Antonio last night as the defense really stepped up by allowing just 90 points but still allowed the Spurs to shoot over 49 percent from the floor. After going over the total in five straight games, New Orleans has gone under in its last five games and I expect that to reverse out tonight. In their previous seven games playing with no rest, the Pelicans have gone under the total only two times. New Orleans is one of the faster tempo teams in the league as it averages 85.4 shots per game which is eighth highest and the Bulls allow 87 shots per game which is second moist in the league and it is 10-2 to the over against up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more spg this season. Chicago has gone under the total in its last two games but the last game was set at 208 and on the season, the Bulls are 5-0 to the over when the total is set between 200 and 205. New Orleans is 15-10 to the over this season when the total is 195 or higher and we should see the scoreboard lighting up tonight. 10* Over (509) New Orleans Pelicans/(510) Chicago Bulls |
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12-26-14 | Houston Rockets v. Memphis Grizzlies -2.5 | Top | 117-111 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
This line came out late due to the uncertainty of forward Zach Randolph as he has missed the last two games with a knee injury. Whether he goes or not, this is a huger game for Memphis which has lost three straight games, including two at home, to fall into third place in the Western Conference. The Grizzlies opened 12-1 on their home floor prior to the two losses, the last one coming against Utah as eight-point favorites on Monday. The Rockets meanwhile snapped a two-game losing streak with a home win over Portland on Monday. We were on Houston in that game which was a big revenge play after last season's playoff outing by the Blazers and while the time off between Monday and now will prevent a letdown, the Rockets head to San Antonio for their next game. The Rockets are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a cover and in Memphis, they have cashed only once in their last eight trips. The Grizzlies are 44-20-1 ATS in their last 65 home games against teams with a winning road record and fall into a great situation where we play on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are coming off a loss as a favorite, in a game involving two teams with winning percentages between .600 and .750. This situation is 56-22 ATS (71.8 percent) since 1996. 10* (810) Memphis Grizzlies |
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12-25-14 | Golden State Warriors v. Los Angeles Clippers UNDER 218.5 | Top | 86-100 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
While this game looks like another shootout possibility, the under is the play here as we are getting an extremely favorable number. Golden St. got its revenge from last season's playoff loss by winning 121-104 last month and while that game went over, the closing total was 211 which is seven points less than what we have here, The Warriors have gone over in each of their last three games but this number is higher than any of those while the Clippers have gone over in two straight games and again, the number is higher here. All of this presents great contrarian value and it needs to be noted that this is the highest total either team has seen all season. We play the under where the total is greater than or equal to 210 involving teams after scoring 100 points or more two straight games going up against an opponent after a combined score of 215 points or more two straight games. This situation is 69-35 (66.3 percent) over the last five seasons. Additionally, Golden St. is 19-7 to the under after allowing 110 points or more while going 19-9 to the under after scoring 100 points or more three straight games while the under is 5-1 in the Clippers last six home games against teams with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. 10* Under (509) Golden St. Warriors/(510) Los Angeles Clippers |
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12-23-14 | Charlotte Hornets v. Milwaukee Bucks -5.5 | Top | 108-101 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
Charlotte could not be in a tougher situation tonight as it has not only won three straight games, all against losing teams, but this is the second of a back-to-back and the fourth game in five nights for the Hornets. Despite the recent surge, Charlotte is still 10 games under .500 and hits the road with a 2-10 record on the highway, one of those wins coming against the lowly Sixers. Milwaukee is coming off a great roadtrip for bettors as it covered all four games while splitting those games straight up to remain at .500 on the season. It has been a tough schedule for the Bucks which have played 17 road games compared to just 11 home games but they have taken care of the poor teams, going 4-0 ATS at home against losing teams. Additionally, the Bucks are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game and have a fantastic situation on their side as we play against underdogs with a winning percentage between .250 and .400 after beating the spread by more than 24 points in their previous game. This situation is 26-4 ATS (86.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (718) Milwaukee Bucks |
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12-22-14 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Houston Rockets -3.5 | Top | 95-110 | Win | 102 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
After winning seven of its previous eight games, Houston has dropped two straight, both coming at home. The Rockets will be out to stop that skid as well as trying to get revenge against the Blazers. This is the first meeting since Houston lost to Portland in six games in the Western Conference quarterfinals with the ending coming on a Damian Lillard three-pointer as time expired as that is one they certainly not have forgotten about. While the Rockets have been losing, the Blazers have won five straight games including two straight on the highway during this four-game roadtrip that concludes in Oklahoma City tomorrow night. They are coming off a 26-point win last time out and they have tallied 129 and 114 points in their last two games but now they will be facing one of the top defenses in the NBA as the Rockets are allowing just 96.3 ppg on 43.1 percent shooting and Portland is 5-15 ATS in its last 20 games after scoring 110 points or more two straight games. Additionally, the Blazers are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games against teams with a winning percentage above .600 while the Rockets are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games against teams with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. 10* (504) Houston Rockets |
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12-21-14 | Boston Celtics v. Miami Heat -1.5 | Top | 84-100 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
The new look Celtics head to Miami in their second game since trading Rajon Rondo to Dallas. They won their first game without him which was not a big surprise as players tend to rise up when playing without one of their stars but it is usually the second game that they come back down to a normal level. Boston has won three straight games which is tied for a season high but facing Minnesota and Orlando at home and Philadelphia on the road will allow most teams to win three straight. The Heat are struggling with two straight losses, both at home which has extended their home losing skid to five games. They are the only team in the Eastern Conference that has a losing record at home and a winning record on the road and because of the skid, we are getting a very solid line. Miami falls into a fantastic situation as we play against teams that are coming off a home win scoring 110 or more points, in a game involving two teams with winning percentages between .400 and .499. This situation is 65-32 ATS (67 percent) since 1996. The Celtics are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 road games following a double-digit win. 10* (708) Miami Heat |
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12-19-14 | Utah Jazz v. Orlando Magic -3 | Top | 101-94 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
Orlando is back home and will be playing its first homestand since early November as the schedule for the last five weeks has been brutal. This is the first of four straight games for the Magic which have played nine of their last 11 games on the road and on the season, just nine of 28 games have been at home. That has certainly been a big cause to them being eight games under .500 but it provides an opportunity to buy them low thanks to them playing the toughest schedule in the Eastern Conference. Orlando is 3-14 against the NBA's top 16 but 7-4 against the bottom 14. Utah is coming off a win at Miami on Wednesday, a rare victory of late and a rare victory on the road. It was just the third road win of the season for the Jazz and only the seventh overall, none of which have been won in succession. They are 0-6 straight up and 1-5 ATS following a victory with four of those losses coming by double-digits. The Magic are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 home games against teams with a losing road record while Utah is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 road games coming off a road win. 10* (802) Orlando Magic |
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12-18-14 | Milwaukee Bucks v. Sacramento Kings -6 | Top | 108-107 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
This line came out late due to injury scenarios but they are all pretty clear. Jabari Parker went down with a season-ending torn left ACL on Monday and the Bucks suffered another loss when starting guard Giannis Antetokounmpo sprained his left ankle last night and did not return. He likely will not be around tonight. For Sacramento, Rudy Gay has an Achilles injury but should be in the lineup and most importantly, the Kings will see the return of DeMarcus Cousins who has missed 10 straight games because of viral meningitis. Milwaukee is coming off a hard fought battle in Portland last night as the Bucks were in the game throughout until a late Blazers run sealed the game. The Bucks have covered three straight games so we are getting some value based on that along with the fact Sacramento has lost four straight games while failing to cover its last three games. The Kings are 2-8 in the 10 games without Cousins so his return will be a big one as they went from three games over .500 to three games under .500. His minutes will be limited but any Cousins is better than no Cousins. The Kings are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games following a loss of more than 10 points. 10* (506) Sacramento Kings |
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12-17-14 | Houston Rockets v. Denver Nuggets OVER 206 | Top | 115-111 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
These teams just met on Saturday with Houston prevailing at home 108-96, staying under the total by just a bucket. With the change in venue, I expect this one to fly over tonight. That was the third under in the last four games for the Rockets with the lone over coming on the road at Sacramento and the location of the game makes a difference for this team. Houston averages 188.7 ppg in its home games but that climbs to 201.6 ppg in road games and while that is still lower than this total, the difference of 12.9 ppg is huge and even more so when taking into account the opponent. Denver averages about the same both home and away as it is right at 207 ppg. The Nuggets have gone under the total in three straight games as well as three straight at home but a lot of that has to do with the pace of the game. As far as possessions per game, Denver has 100.3 and Houston has 99, good for sixth and eight most in the league respectively. Both teams fall into a solid contrarian over situation as we play the over involving teams shooting between 41.5 and 43.5 percent and that are between +/-3 rpg in margin. This situation is 72-34 (67.9 percent) to the over the last five seasons. 10* Over (717) Houston Rockets/(718) Denver Nuggets |
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12-16-14 | Minnesota Timberwolves v. Washington Wizards OVER 201.5 | Top | 95-109 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
We are getting a good number here based on recent games and this should turn into a high scoring affair. Minnesota has gone under the total in four straight games but all of those were at home where the offense was unable to generate much and the defense actually played rather well. The road defense is a different story as the Timberwolves are allowing a whopping 115.6 ppg including an incredible 124.3 ppg over their last six games. This is exactly what the Washington offense needs as it has been hit or miss and is coming off a 93-point effort against Utah last time out. Going back to early November, the Wizards have scored fewer than 100 points seven previous times and have followed that up with 100 or more points six times. Washington is averaging 112.6 ppg over its last five home games and its 48.2 percent overall shooting percentage at home is seventh best in the NBA. The Wizards are one of the better defensive teams in the NBA but the Timberwolves will push the ball as they are averaging 85.2 shots per game which is eighth most in the NBA and that number drops just slightly on the road. Minnesota is 14-3 to the over in its last 17 road games after two or more consecutive unders and 15-2 to the over in its last 17 road games against teams shooting 46 percent on the season or better. Washington is 14-6 to the over in its last 20 games against teams with a winning percentage below .400. 10* Over (501) Minnesota Timberwolves/(502) Washington Wizards |
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12-15-14 | Milwaukee Bucks v. Phoenix Suns -4.5 | Top | 96-94 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 32 m | Show |
This is a big game for Phoenix as it has dropped five straight games and needs a win before it hits the road for seven of its next eight games. The Suns have played a tough schedule of late with the exception being a loss against Detroit in their last home game where they have now dropped two in a row. They are coming off a 24-point loss last night in Oklahoma City against the 100% healthy Thunder and while they have struggled in the second of back-to-back games, they all but one of the first six instances have come on the road. Milwaukee meanwhile is coming off an upset win at home against the Clippers which snapped a two-game slide. The Bucks are now back to .500 but are still just 5-8 on the road and on the season, they are just 2-8 against teams ranked within the top 16 of the league and that is where Phoenix resides. The Suns are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games following a loss of more than 10 points while the Bucks are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games coming off an upset win as an underdog. Suns guard Goran Dragic did not play in Sunday game at Oklahoma City and he was held out in hopes of being able to return tonight which would be an added benefit. Phoenix stops the bleeding tonight. 10* (712) Phoenix Suns |
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12-14-14 | Los Angeles Lakers v. Minnesota Timberwolves +3 | Top | 100-94 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
There isn't much separating Minnesota and Los Angeles yet the Lakers come in as road favorites which should not be the case. The Lakers have won two straight games including a big overtime win over San Antonio last time out on Friday which makes it just seven wins on the season and they have yet to win three in a row, losing two games by 34 and 16 points following the other two times this season they had consecutive wins. Minnesota meanwhile lost its last game and it is 1-2 on its current homestand but playing the Warriors, Blazers and Thunder is no easy feat. Going back further, the schedule has been incredibly challenging as this is just the Timberwolves second game this season against a team with a losing record. Minnesota is 14-2 ATS in its last 16 games coming off a double-digit home loss and it falls into a great situation where we play against teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are allowing 103 or more ppg on the season, after a win by three points or less. This situation is 40-13 ATS (75.5 percent) since 1996. 10* (808) Minnesota Timberwolves |
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12-13-14 | Detroit Pistons v. Sacramento Kings -6 | Top | 95-90 | Loss | -101 | 13 h 56 m | Show |
You can't fault Detroit if it is still celebrating following last night's 105-103 victory over Phoenix which was just its second road win of the season and it happened to snap a 13-game losing streak in the process. Winning has been difficult for the Pistons obviously and the close call last night will make it especially tough tonight as Detroit is 0-10 ATS in its last 10 games following a win by three points or less. The Kings were on the verge of a breakout season but they have stumbled over the last few weeks and are currently riding a two-game losing streak following an overtime loss against Houston on Thursday. The absence of DeMarcus Cousins has been big as he has missed the last eight games but Sacramento is in a good position without him tonight. The schedule has been a difficult one for the Kings as they have played the second toughest schedule in the NBA and they have gone 3-8 against the NBA's top ten and 8-4 against everyone else. Additionally, they are 7-3 ATS this season against teams with a losing record while going back, the Pistons are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games against teams with a losing record. 10* (516) Sacramento Kings |
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12-12-14 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Washington Wizards +2.5 | Top | 96-104 | Win | 100 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
This is one of those games where we have the Western Conference favored over the Eastern Conference but not so sure that should be the case. The Clippers are on a roll with nine straight wins including five straight on the road to improve to 8-2 on the highway but looking at those victories raises some questions. The best team Los Angeles has defeated on the road is Houston which was without Dwight Howard and that is the line victory away from home against a team with a winning record. Washington is tied with Atlanta at 15-6 for the lead in the Southeast Division as it has won two straight games coming into Friday but is riding a three-game losing streak against the number which is helping us here. The Wizards are 10-2 at home and they are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games against teams with a road winning percentage of greater than .600 while the Clippers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. Additionally, we play against road favorites with a winning percentage of .750 or better after having covered four of their last five against the spread, playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 63-27 ATS (70 percent) since 1996. 10* (804) Washington Wizards |
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12-11-14 | Cleveland Cavaliers v. Oklahoma City Thunder -2.5 | Top | 94-103 | Win | 100 | 13 h 25 m | Show |
Because of early season injuries, the Thunder got off to a poor start and have a lot of ground to make up in the Western Conference. They are 8-13 which is good for 12th place and while making the playoffs will likely happen, every game counts. Oklahoma City is 4-1 since the return of Russell Westbrook and 3-1 since the return of Kevin Durant and now they are after their first signature wins since their returns. Cleveland has responded to its poor start by winning its last eight games to take over first place in the Central Division. The Cavaliers finally seem to be coming together as a team and the chemistry is improving. While two wins over Toronto during the winning streak are nice, there are no other big wins and the Cavaliers are just 2-4 against the Western Conference as compared to 11-3 against the Eastern Conference. Oklahoma City is 22-7 ATS in its last 29 games after failing to cover the spread in three out of its last four games and despite the early injury bug, the Thunder are 4-0 ATS at home this season against winning teams. 10* (702) Oklahoma City Thunder |
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12-09-14 | Dallas Mavericks v. Memphis Grizzlies UNDER 203.5 | Top | 105-114 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
This is the first meeting this season between two of the top teams in the Western Conference and while everything points to the over, the value is clearly the other way. Dallas has gone over the total in five straight games and seven of its last eight while Memphis has gone over in two of its last three with the last missing by just a bucket. This is a rarity however for the Grizzlies to see a total this high and the only time they had one above 200, it stayed under rather easily. Obviously this number is lower than what Dallas has seen a lot of the time but it is still very high against a slower team. Both teams have excellent situations on their side as we play the under involving road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 after five or more consecutive overs and averaging 102 or more ppg going up against teams allowing between 92 and 98 ppg. This situation is 30-8 (78.9 percent) to the under since 1996. Second, we play the under involving home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 that are outscoring their opponents by six or more ppg going up against an opponent after allowing 100 points or more four straight games. This situation is 79-42 (65.3 percent) to the under since 1996. 10* Under (705) Dallas Mavericks/(706) Memphis Grizzlies |
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12-08-14 | Atlanta Hawks v. Indiana Pacers -1 | Top | 108-92 | Loss | -113 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
We lost with Denver yesterday as the Hawks won their sixth straight game while covering their third game in a row. Atlanta moved to 9-2 at home and it hits the road where it is 4-4 on the season which isn't horrible but we are now getting value in going against them. The Hawks are tied with Washington in the NBA Southeast Division but they are in a tougher than expected spot tonight. The Pacers are favored in this one which is a surprise to some as they are riding a four-game losing streak but all of those losses came on the road and they have been a good bounceback team when it comes to covering as they are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a loss. The Pacers will also be out for some revenge as they lost the first meeting against Atlanta by 10 points which was their first road game of the season. Indiana is 8-0 ATS this season following a non-conference game and while Atlanta is 9-1 in the role of favorite, it is just 2-5 straight up as an underdog and I expect the winning streak to come to an end along with the losing streak that the Pacers currently possess. 10* (504) Indiana Pacers |
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12-07-14 | Denver Nuggets +5.5 v. Atlanta Hawks | Top | 84-96 | Loss | -102 | 6 h 28 m | Show |
Atlanta is playing its best basketball of the season as it has won five straight games including the last two on the road against the Heat and Nets. Because of the recent run, I feel this line is inflated and we can base that on the fact they were favored by just a point more in their last home game against the Celtics. Denver is better than the Celtics by more than a point and we can base that simply on the conference affiliations. The Nuggets have dropped two straight games including a blowout in Washington on Friday by 30 points. It was easily their worst loss of the season but they are still 7-3 over their last 10 games and they are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following an ATS loss while going 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games against the Eastern Conference. Conversely, the Hawks are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games against the Western Conference while going 8-20 ATS in their last 28 home games following two or more consecutive wins. The Nuggets also fall into a great league angle as we play on road teams averaging 103 or more ppg, after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half. This situation is 81-35 ATS (69.8 percent) since 1996. 10* (803) Denver Nuggets |
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12-06-14 | Golden State Warriors v. Chicago Bulls +3 | Top | 112-102 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
Golden St. has won 11 straight games and is off to a franchise best 16-2 while that record is tops in the NBA. The Warriors have benefitted from a relatively easy schedule however as they have played the 23rd ranked slate in the league but because of the winning run they are on, they are hitting a place they have not been before. They have won all eight games as a road favorite this season but seven of those were against losing teams while the other came against a Houston team that was not at full strength. Chicago meanwhile is back to full strength or at least close to it with Taj Gibson being the lone player that has not been playing on a consistent basis. The Bulls rolled at Charlotte on Wednesday which means they have had ample time to rest and get ready for this one. They have yet to be a home underdog this season which is not a surprise but their 2-4 home record is a surprise compared to their 10-3 record on the road. Chicago has lost its last two games at home but those came in a span of three weeks as they have not been able to get into a rhythm at home due to having to vacate the United Center because of the circus. This is the start of their first three-game homestand of the season and we will see a great effort because of it. 10* (506) Chicago Bulls |
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12-05-14 | Miami Heat v. Milwaukee Bucks UNDER 195.5 | Top | 85-109 | Win | 100 | 14 h 37 m | Show |
Miami and Milwaukee have been involved in some high scoring games of late and the defense can be to blame but I think we see better efforts from both teams on that side of the ball Friday night. Milwaukee has gone over the total in four straight games namely because of the defense that has allowed 107, 111 and 117 points over their last three games. It was a pace issue for the most part as Milwaukee, which allows an average of just 82 attempts per game, allowed 87 and 92 in two of those games. Don't expect that tonight as Miami is the slowest paced team in the NBA as it shoots a league low 73.2 shots per games and allows a league low 76.8 attempts per game. The Heat have gone over in two straight, catching two very hot shooting teams while allowing just 72 and 74 shots. All of this leads to a great situation as well as we play the under involving one team after two or more consecutive overs going up against an opponent after four or more consecutive overs. This situation is 107-57 (65.2 percent) to the under the last five seasons. Additionally, the under is 9-1 in the Heats last 10 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game while the under is 6-2-1 in the Bucks last nine home games against teams with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. 10* Under (819) Miami Heat/(820) Milwaukee Bucks |
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12-04-14 | Cleveland Cavaliers v. New York Knicks +8 | Top | 90-87 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
The Cavaliers seemed to have finally turned the corner as they have won four straight to go from two games under .500 to two games over .500. all four of those wins came at home however and this is the first road game for Cleveland since November 21st. They are 3-3 on the road this season and their six road games are tied for the fewest in the NBA so the schedule has been in their favor which comes as no surprise. The Knicks are trending the other way as they have dropped five straight games and seven of their last eight to fall to 4-15 on the season. While it has been a rough first quarter of the season for New York, this is a spot that we can base on play on them as the national television spotlight tends to pick up the play of even the worst teams in the league. This is a revenge game for Cleveland as it lost its season opener to the Knicks but this line seems to be taking that into consideration as this is by far the biggest spread the Knicks have gotten at home and this is the most Cleveland has been favored by on the road so we are presents with some great value. The Cavaliers are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games while the Knicks are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games against teams with a winning record. 10* (502) New York Knicks |
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12-03-14 | Memphis Grizzlies v. Houston Rockets +5 | Top | 96-105 | Win | 100 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
This line came out late due to the uncertainty of Rockets center Dwight Howard who was listed as doubtful so there is no reason the line could not have been posted during all openers. We played on the Rockets in their last game in Milwaukee and that winner came right after a home loss against the Clippers so they will be out to rectify that home defeat. In addition, Houston will be motivated to take out one of the best teams in the NBA to move within a game of the division lead and also to get some payback following a 26-point loss in Memphis last month. That game was even worse than the final indicated as the Rockets trailed by as many as 36 points. The Grizzlies have won five straight games and their only two losses on the season have come by a total of five points so they are clearly playing at a high level. This is their fourth straight road game and they have a home date with San Antonio on deck for Friday so there could definitely be a lack of focus for this win ending their roadtrip. Here, we play against road favorites with a winning percentage of .750 or better after having covered four of their last five against the spread, playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 62-27 ATS (69.7 percent) since 1996. 10* (714) Houston Rockets |
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12-03-14 | Detroit Pistons +5 v. Boston Celtics | Top | 102-109 | Loss | -104 | 9 h 1 m | Show |
We lost with the Pistons last night as they put up a dud at home against the Lakers but we will go with them again tonight in a very favorable spot. Getting out of Detroit could be the best thing for this team right now as it has lost seven straight games at home including all four during the recent homestand. The Pistons obviously have not been much better on the road but facing a Boston team that is 2-7 at home and favored by this many points is the right take. The Celtics head home playing nearly as bad as the Pistons but they are not in a good place tonight after losing in Atlanta last night. Boston blew a 23-point lead to the Hawks and coming back from that is a challenge especially for a young team like this. The Celtics have dropped five straight games while going 1-8 over their last nine games with the lone victory coming against the winless Sixers. Additionally, they have lost six straight home games and fall into a negative contrarian situation where we play against favorites off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog going up against an opponent off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite. This situation is 32-8 ATS (80 percent) since 1996. 10* (705) Detroit Pistons |
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12-02-14 | Los Angeles Lakers v. Detroit Pistons -1.5 | Top | 106-96 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
The Lakers ended their homestand with a win over Toronto in overtime, snapping their four-game losing streak and handing the Raptors just their fourth loss of the season. It has obviously been a tough year for Los Angeles thus far but to its credit, it has played the second toughest schedule in the league as 15 of 17 gamers have come against the top half and this is their first road game against a team below .500 so it could be questioned how they will perform but I expect a letdown. The Pistons have been just as bad and are mired in an eight-game losing streak but the opposition has been pretty difficult and tonight presents a great opportunity to snap the skid. Detroit is one of just four teams in the NBA that is winless against the top 16 of the league but it has fared better against the lower portion of the power rankings and that is certainly where the Lakers fall. Here, we play against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 after two or more consecutive overs, an excellent offensive team averaging 102 or more ppg going up against a poor defensive team, allowing between 98 and 102 ppg. This situation is 32-10 ATS (76.2 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (506) Detroit Pistons |
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12-02-14 | Brooklyn Nets v. New York Knicks OVER 189 | Top | 98-93 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
The Knicks are on a four-game losing streak as the early season has been a disaster as the offense has had a tough time scoring points. New York is near the bottom of the league in scoring at 93.4 ppg but the shooting itself has not been that bad as the Knicks are middle of the pack in shooting percentage and are near the top in three-point shooting. They are coming off games of scoring 78 and 79 points which are their two lowest outputs of the season but I expect New York's offense to come to life tonight. Brooklyn has gone under the total in four straight games and seven of its last eight but looking at the closing numbers shows that we are getting great value here with a total that is lower than it normally would be. These teams played last month and the total was three points higher and that one went over. The Nets have a similar offense as the Knicks and their defense has not been up to par this season as they are allowing over 100 ppg on season and over 101 ppg on the road. The over is 4-0 in the Nets last four games following a double-digit loss at home while the over is 20-7-1 in the Knicks last 28 games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. 10* Over (507) Brooklyn Nets/(508) New York Knicks |
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12-01-14 | Denver Nuggets v. Utah Jazz +3.5 | Top | 103-101 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
The Nuggets head to Utah to try and get over the .500 mark and this is the third time this season they have been road favorites. The first time resulted in a loss at Oklahoma City and the second time resulted in a win over the Lakers but it took overtime to get it done. Denver is in a very difficult spot tonight as it is coming off a revenge win over Phoenix at home and has a revenge game on deck tomorrow night at home against Portland, where it lost by 17 points in the last meeting. Utah will be looking to snap its five-game losing skid which includes losses in three straight games at home. The Jazz are 3-5 at home which is the same record as the Denver record on the road which makes this line overadjusted based on the overall results. Utah is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games following a loss while going 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a double-digit loss at home. Additionally, Utah is 22-8 ATS in its last 30 games after allowing 105 or more points including a perfect 5-0 ATS this season while Denver is just 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games when its opponent allows 100 points or more in its previous game. 10* (706) Utah Jazz |
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11-30-14 | Minnesota Timberwolves v. Portland Trail Blazers UNDER 213 | Top | 93-107 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
Portland is coming off a loss at home against Memphis on Friday as the defense allowed 112 points and after that defeat, I expect the defense to lock down on Sunday. It was the second straight game that the Blazers have gone over and the last time they allowed this many points, 113 against Denver, they followed it up by allowing just 87 points in their next game. Minnesota is coming off a high scoring game last time out and it has gone over in seven of its last eight games and now we are presented with some good value on the total against one of the better defense in the league. Portland is 26-12 to the under in its last 38 home games off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite and it falls into a situation where we play the under involving home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 outscoring their opponents by six or more ppg going up against an opponent after allowing 100 points or more 4 straight games. This situation is 78-42 (65 percent) to the under since 1996. 10* Under (813) Minnesota Timberwolves/(814) Portland Trailblazers |
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11-29-14 | Houston Rockets +2 v. Milwaukee Bucks | Top | 117-103 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
This line came out late due to the uncertain status of Dwight Howard who has missed five straight games with a knee injury and he is questionable again tonight. The Rockets got pounded at home last night against the Clippers which was just their fourth loss of the season but I expect a rebound tonight, with or without Howard. Houston is 5-1 on the road with the five-game winning streak snapped at Memphis in its last game on the highway. The Rockets are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games against teams with a winning record. The Bucks continue to be a pleasant surprise in the league as they are 10-7 and are just a half-game behind the Bulls in the Central Division. Milwaukee has won three straight games including a 16-point win at Detroit last night and while the run has been solid, playing the easiest schedule in the NBA has helped. The Bucks are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 home games against teams with a road winning percentage of greater than .600 and fall into a negative angle as we play against home underdogs coming off two or more consecutive road wins. This situation is 23-5 ATS (82.1 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (509) Houston Rockets |
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11-28-14 | Golden State Warriors v. Charlotte Hornets +9 | Top | 106-101 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
We played on Charlotte on Wednesday and lost as it fell to Portland but we will back the Hornets again tonight in a very similar spot. They were in that game against the Blazers throughout and had a 14-point lead at one point but the difference ended up being three-pointers as Portland scored seven more than Charlotte. The Hornets have now dropped seven straight games while going 0-5-2 ATS in those games and now they are getting an even bigger number. It is due to their streak as well as the fact that Golden St. has won seven straight games while covering five of its last six. This is the best start in franchise history and now the Warriors are paying for it. The first meeting did not go well for Charlotte as it lost at Golden St. by 25 points and being less than two weeks ago, they haven't forgotten so they will be out for payback in addition to stopping their losing skid. The Hornets are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games against teams with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. Also, we play against road teams allowing 41 percent shooting or better, after three straight games of allowing 42 percent or better. This situation is 74-34 ATS (68.5 percent) since 1996. 10* (704) Charlotte Hornets |
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11-26-14 | Milwaukee Bucks v. Minnesota Timberwolves +1.5 | Top | 103-86 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 0 m | Show |
This line came out late due to injuries and Minnesota is on a great spot here. Milwaukee is coming off a victory at home last night against Detroit to snap a two-game skid and get back over .500 overall on the season. It has been a busy run for the Bucks as this game tonight is their sixth game in nine nights and after Thanksgiving, they have a three-in-four situation coming up. This is already their sixth back-to-back set of the season and they have dropped three of the first five games playing with no rest. Last season, it took Milwaukee until January 22nd to notch its eighth win so clearly things are going right for the Bucks this season. The Bucks are 5-2 at home but just 3-5 on the road. Minnesota is struggling with a 1-7 run while covering just that one game as well. The Timberwolves have been plagued with injuries but younger players continue to progress, namely Andrew Wiggins who is coming off his best game as a pro. Also, the schedule hasn't helped much as they have played the seventh toughest schedule in the NBA, going 0-8 against the top 16 and 3-1 against every other team and the latter is where the Bucks fall. 10* (716) Minnesota Timberwolves |
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11-26-14 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Charlotte Hornets +6.5 | Top | 105-97 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
There are some different names at the top of the NBA divisions with Toronto, Memphis and Golden St. all leading and possessing double-digit wins. We can also add Portland to that list as the Blazers already have a four-game lead in the Northwest Division thanks to an eight-game winning streak but we will be going against that tonight. Portland returns home after this mini three-game roadtrip so it will be looking ahead to spending the holiday at home and then face off against Memphis on Friday. Charlotte meanwhile has been going the opposite way as it has lost six straight games while failing to cover any of those. The Hornets were off to a respectable 4-5 start prior to this but they are in a great spot tonight to bust out of the slump. They are 2-0 ATS this season as a single-digit underdog of more than six points while going 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine games following a loss of more than 10 points. Additionally, we play on home underdogs after failing to cover four of their last five games against the spread going up against an opponent having covered six or seven of their last eight games against the spread. This situation is 105-61 ATS (63.3 percent) since 1996. 10* (708) Charlotte Hornets |
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11-25-14 | Golden State Warriors -5 v. Miami Heat | Top | 114-97 | Win | 100 | 9 h 59 m | Show |
This game was off the board due to injuries on both sides and Golden St. opened as the expected road favorite late Tuesday morning. Golden St. is off to its best start in franchise history and it is currently riding a five-game winning streak to move to 10-2 on the season. The Warriors have been solid both at home and on the road with identical 5-1 records and they have played a decent schedule, ranking 14th hardest in the NBA. While they are hit with injuries, the depth of this team keeps it going. Miami has won two straight and will be without Dwyane Wade again for the seventh straight game and that is significant in this matchup. The Heat have been getting it done with defense but when you look at those solid defensive efforts, they have come against some very poor offenses and not one with the firepower of Golden St. The Warriors have one of the best early season angles on its side as we play against home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are coming off a home win by three points or less, in November games. This situation is 24-1 ATS (96 percent) since 1996. 10* (503) Golden St. Warriors |
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11-24-14 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Philadelphia 76ers OVER 201 | Top | 114-104 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
Portland has won seven straight games and while the offense was good and the defense was bad during the first three games of the streak, it has been a complete flip-flop over the last four games which has seen the under come in all four times. That is giving us some value tonight in a lower that average total. This is the third time Portland has played with no rest and the first two times, the games soared over the total with scores of 226 and 243. Additionally, Portland is 11-2 to the over in its last 13 road games after four or more consecutive wins. The winless Sixers will have their hands full here no doubt but catching the Blazers with no rest is a big edge for the offense that has been horrendous and they should be able to break through. Philadelphia averages over 14 more ppg at home than it does n the road and going back, the Sixers are 24-10 to the over in their last 34 home games coming off a road loss. 10* Over (703) Portland Trailblazers/(704) Philadelphia 76ers |
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11-22-14 | Washington Wizards v. Milwaukee Bucks +3 | Top | 111-100 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 28 m | Show |
The Wizards are coming off a big winner last night against Cleveland as they got away with scoring just 11 points in the final quarter as their lead was big enough and the Cavaliers could not get anything going on offense. They now head out on the road where they are just 3-2 with all three of those wins coming against teams with a losing record and the two losses coming against teams with a .500 or better record. While it may seem shocking, the Bucks fall into that latter category as it is off to a 7-6 start which is pretty impressive considering the Bucks did not win their seventh game last season until December 31st, a span of 31 games. What isn't impressive was the loss last night as they were blown out by Toronto by 41 points but that was on the road and Milwaukee is 4-1 at home with the lone loss coming against Chicago. The Bucks will also be out for some revenge after opening the month with an 11-point loss in Washington in a game they never led. This season, the Bucks are a perfect 5-0 ATS coming off a loss and going back to last season, they are 14-3-1 ATS in their last 18 games following an ATS loss. Washington meanwhile is 0-5 ATS in its last five games following a win. 10* (716) Milwaukee Bucks |
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11-22-14 | Toronto Raptors v. Cleveland Cavaliers -3.5 | Top | 110-93 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 3 m | Show |
Cleveland is off to a very pedestrian 5-6 start which isn't a total surprise considering the overhauled roster but I expect good things tonight. The talent of the team is too strong and because of the rough start, we are starting to see some value which was not the case early in the season. The Cavaliers are coming off a loss in Washington last night by 13 points, their third straight loss, as they shot just 36 percent from the floor and the 78 points was a season low. The fans must be getting restless as Cleveland has won only two of its five home games and now it faces the best team in the Eastern Conference. Toronto is off to a 10-2 start and has won three straight games including a 41-point beatdown of Milwaukee last night. Now the Raptors hit the road, which is hard in itself in this league, but this road game is the first since November 5th as Toronto has played seven straight home games and its nine home games overall are tied for the most in the NBA. Because of this, it comes as no surprise that the Raptors have played the easiest schedule in the NBA and they have gone 8-0 against the bottom half of the league while going just 2-2 against the top half. 10* (706) Cleveland Cavaliers |
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11-21-14 | Phoenix Suns v. Philadelphia 76ers +9.5 | Top | 122-96 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
This is an ugly play for sure but the fact of the matter is that this line is extremely overadjusted. The Sixers are off to an 0-11 start to the season and the schedule has done it no favors as they have played the fourth toughest schedule in the league with over half of their games coming against the top ten teams in the NBA. While that isn't an excuse for continually losing, that fact that the losses mount up gives us advantage to take a horrible team when the situation is right, similar to the Raiders last night. Phoenix is playing its fourth road game of this six-game roadtrip and following two wins in Boston and Detroit, the urgency won't be very much tonight. Last season, the Suns came in here and won by 11 points as a five-point favorite and now they are favored by double that and not because they have gotten that much better but because the Sixers winless streak is at the forefront and the public continues to go against it. And that is the case again tonight. You will be hard-pressed to find a team that will be trying harder to win than Philadelphia because of everything that is circulating in the media attached to this losing skid. The Sixers are 6-0 ATS in their last six games following a double-digit loss at home while the Suns are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games against teams with a losing record. Additionally, we play on teams after two straight losses by 10 points or more going up against an opponent after a game where both teams scored 90 points or less. This situation is 46-17 ATS (73 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (502) Philadelphia 76ers *ENFORCER* |
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11-19-14 | Dallas Mavericks v. Washington Wizards +2.5 | Top | 105-102 | Loss | -102 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
Dallas has won and covered four straight games to improve to 8-3 overall. The Mavericks are 3-2 on the road including wins in the last two games against Charlotte and Utah, both of which they were favored in by four and three points respectively. While Dallas is favored by less tonight than it was on those two games, the question is should it be favored at all? We get the West vs. East matchup and that the Mavericks are from a superior conference but the Wizards are one of the top teams in the Eastern Conference and were expected to be. Washington has won three straight games and four of five but it is just 1-4 ATS in those games as it has failed to cover each of those as a favorite but did cover in the lone game as an underdog. Dallas has won eight straight games in this series and the Wizards will be out to end that streak and prove the start is no fluke. While this will be the biggest home test for Washington, it has yet to lose at home and is well rested after having played just two games over the last eight days including no travel. Dallas head coach Rick Carlisle is 7-19 ATS off a road win by 20 points or more and Washington falls into a solid contrarian situation as we play on home underdogs after failing to cover two of their last three games against the spread, playing their third or less game in 10 days. This situation is 68-34 ATS (66.7 percent) since 1996. 10* (502) Washington Wizards *ENFORCER* |
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11-19-14 | Los Angeles Clippers -4.5 v. Orlando Magic | Top | 114-90 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
We are not a big proponent of laying points on the road in this league but sometimes the situation calls for it and tonight is one of those spots. The Clippers came into the season expected to be contenders in the Western Conference and while there is still a lot of regular season left, they have not gotten off to the start they hoped. They are eighth in the conference following a home loss against Chicago by 16 points which concluded a four-game homestand and a stretch of the first nine games being played in California. For a team not playing up to its standards, getting out of town could be the best remedy. Orlando meanwhile is exceeding expectations as it is 5-7 with three wins over its last four games. The Magic have been kind to backers as they have covered seven straight games including both games played at home. They were favorites in one of those however and the other one took overtime to win. That was against Minnesota where they were getting four points which is basically the same number tonight and that does not line up right. The Clippers are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 games coming off a favorite loss and 11-2 ATS in their last 13 road games following a loss. Also, we play on road teams averaging between 98 and 102 ppg against teams allowing between 98 and 102 ppg, after allowing 100 points or more two straight games. This situation is 73-34 ATS (68.2 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (505) Los Angeles Clippers *SUPREME ANNIHILATOR* |
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11-18-14 | New York Knicks v. Milwaukee Bucks OVER 189.5 | Top | 113-117 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
The Knicks snapped their seven-game losing streak with a victory over Denver on Sunday. The offense finally showed signs of life as they scored 109 points on 53.9 percent shooting, both of which were season highs and the thinking here is that they can continue to progress that offense over the next few games as the schedule will allow it to do so because of the lack of strength to it. Even though New York had its best offensive performance of the season, the game against Denver still stayed under the number because the defense allowed just 93 points but that is something we should not get used to. While the Knicks stayed under the total last time out, Milwaukee has stayed under the total over its last seven games and the numbers have been coming down to coincide with that. The Bucks are allowing the third fewest amount of points in the NBA but we need to put an asterisk by that. Milwaukee has allowed 81 points or fewer three times this season but those games were misleading as they came against Philadelphia, Oklahoma City and Indiana, three teams completely disjointed because of injuries and/or youth. The offense has struggled scoring points which has helped the under streak and it is simply a case of some poor shooting. Both New York and Milwaukee are in the middle of the pack in shots so the low scoring games would come from poor shooting and not pace. Opposite will collide on each side and I think that the offenses will be able to find success against both opposing defenses. 10* Over (703) New York Knicks/(704) Milwaukee Bucks |
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11-17-14 | Denver Nuggets +12.5 v. Cleveland Cavaliers | Top | 106-97 | Win | 100 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
We played against Denver on Sunday as it went into New York following a 21-point victory against the Pacers on Friday. Since opening the season with a win over Detroit, the Nuggets have lost seven of their last eight games and we pointed to a possible lookahead to this game which came to fruition. Denver was outscored 31-8 in the second quarter and shot just 39 percent for the game while allowing the Knicks to shoot 53.9 percent. While facing a potent Cleveland offense may not seem ideal, the Nuggets should put forth a solid effort tonight as it will be out for some revenge following a nine-point loss at home against the Cavaliers earlier this month. Cleveland had some chemistry issues to open the season, starting off 1-3 but it has run off four straight victories while covering three of those. This includes a 33-point blowout over Atlanta on Saturday so there is always letdown factor from that. Additionally, the Cavaliers host the Spurs on Wednesday and we all know who wants some revenge going back to last season. Denver is 21-8 ATS in its last 29 road games after trailing in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half and it falls into a great contrarian spot here as we play on road underdogs of 10 or more points after a loss by 15 points or more going up against an opponent after a combined score of 215 points or more two straight games. This situation is 27-6 ATS (81.8 percent) since 1996. 10* (501) Denver Nuggets *Monday Enforcer* |
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11-16-14 | Denver Nuggets v. New York Knicks -1 | Top | 93-109 | Win | 100 | 4 h 19 m | Show |
After getting pummeled at home against Portland which extended their losing streak to six games, the won at Indiana on Friday by 21 points so they are in prime letdown mode here. Denver is just 1-3 on the road and in addition, it has a game at Cleveland tomorrow which presents the lookahead factor for today as well. Denver was getting 2.5 points at Indiana and it is actually getting less against New York which despite the slow start and poor record, is not a worse off team than the Pacers. The Knicks have dropped seven straight games following a 2-1 start and there has been bad play coupled with bad fortunes and the latter has been the case recently. Their last three losses have come by a total of 10 points with the last two defeats both coming by a bucket. This is the final game of a four-game homestand and the offense has a chance to get going. Despite the fact they have tallied 100 points only once all season, the Knicks will be facing a Denver defense that allows 108.1 ppg which is fourth highest in the NBA and they have allowed 130 or more points on two different occasions. The Knicks skid comes to an end this afternoon. 10* (702) New York Knicks |
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11-15-14 | Phoenix Suns v. Los Angeles Clippers -6.5 | Top | 107-120 | Win | 100 | 14 h 18 m | Show |
Just over two weeks into the season, the Clippers are the only team in the NBA to not have covered a game as they drop to 0-7 against the number following an outright loss to San Antonio last Monday. Obviously it has been a long time off for Los Angeles and that is a good thing for this team that sits just 4-3 on the season. The Clippers had a similar start a season as they opened 3-3 before running off a four-game winning streak. The difference last season was that the Clippers were actually covering game but all that does now is add value to the number tonight. Phoenix is off a loss as well as it went down to Charlotte last night at home which was the culmination of a five-game homestand which spanned 10 days resulting in a 2-3 stretch. The Suns have played seven home games total while traveling for only two games where they have split, defeating the Lakers and losing to the Jazz by 27 points. This is the third back-to-back set for Phoenix this season and it dropped the first two second games by double-digits. The Clippers are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games following a loss as a favorite and they fall into a solid contrarian situation where we play on teams with a winning percentage between .501 and .600 after failing to cover the spread in five or more consecutive games, playing a winning team. This situation is 71-38 ATS (65.1 percent) since 1996. 10* (520) Los Angeles Clippers |
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11-14-14 | Utah Jazz v. New York Knicks -3.5 | Top | 102-100 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
We lost with the Knicks two nights ago but we are coming back with them again Friday as they are in good position with a good number. The Knicks have lost six straight games while failing to cover their last four including the last two coming at home. New York has still yet to reach 100 points in a game this season while averaging a league-low 91.6 ppg but Utah could be the perfect opponent to change that. The Jazz have allowed 102.2 ppg on 46.7 percent shooting, ninth and seventh highest in the NBA respectively. The problem for Utah is not only defense though as it is averaging just 97.6 ppg and its last game showed the struggles with a nine-point fourth quarter as an eight-point lead with five minutes remaining turned into a loss. New York should welcome the Jazz as should Carmelo Anthony who averaged 31.5 ppg on 55.3 percent shooting in two wins last season. Utah is 5-15 ATS in its last 20 games following two straight road game while going 2-6-2 ATS in its last 10 games against teams with a losing record. The skid ends tonight. 10* (708) New York Knicks |
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11-13-14 | Chicago Bulls v. Toronto Raptors UNDER 195 | Top | 100-93 | Win | 100 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
Here we have a battle of two first place teams in their respective divisions and I am expecting a defensive battle despite recent results. The Bulls are known for their strong defense which has been hit or miss this season but they are still in the top half of the league in points allowed and are fifth in shooting percentage allowed. Chicago has gone over the total in three straight games so as of Thursday morning, they are seeing their highest over/under of the young season. The Bulls will be facing a Toronto offense that leads the NBA in scoring but one look at the opposition will tell you why that is the case as the Raptors have played the 25th ranked schedule in the league. Granted, that has also helped their defensive numbers but the Bulls are no offensive juggernaut and as far as pace goes, their 79.5 shot attempts per game are the seventh fewest in the NBA. There is not a lot different from last year to this year with these teams yet in four meetings last season, the highest closing total was 187.5 and the points scored in the four meetings was 176, 176, 164 and 186 so we are getting a great number to work with tonight. Chicago is 8-0 to the under in its last eight games after scoring 60 points or more in the first half last game while Toronto is 5-1 to the under in its last six games after allowing 100 points or more in its previous game. 10* Under (501) Chicago Bulls/(502) Toronto Raptors |
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11-12-14 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Denver Nuggets +2.5 | Top | 130-113 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 56 m | Show |
After opening the season with a victory at home over Detroit, Denver has lost its last five games and has failed to cover any of those games along the way. The Nuggets came into the season with mediocre projections and so far, they have achieved just that but this team is better than the record shows and this is a good spot for a victory. Denver is playing with some quick revenge as its last game came in Portland on Sunday which resulted in a 16-point loss. Portland meanwhile has played since then as it was at home last night hosting the Hornets and it was lucky to come away with a victory. The Blazers fell behind by as much as 23 points and trailed by 10 points heading into the fourth quarter but rallied late and needed a replay reverse to guarantee the victory as opposed to the contest going in overtime. That is the type of game that is difficult to bounce back from as it took a ton of energy for Portland to come back and now playing the next night on the road makes it more difficult. The Blazers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game while the Nuggets are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. 10* (714) Denver Nuggets |
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11-12-14 | Detroit Pistons +6.5 v. Washington Wizards | Top | 103-107 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
Detroit is one of two teams in the NBA to still not have a cover, the Clippers being the other, so the longer this streak goes on, the better the spread gets in backing the Pistons and the better the percentages get of them actually getting a win against the number. Detroit will be also be looking for its first road win of the season and the betting public says it won't happen as the Pistons are the biggest go against road consensus of the night. Washington is 5-2 on the season which is not a big surprise as the Wizards came in with some high expectations after making the playoffs a season ago. They have played a fairly easy schedule thus far as they have faced Orlando, Milwaukee and New York once and Indiana twice but their strength of schedule is high only because of games against the Heat and Raptors. While this is a good team, I'm not sold on the fact they should be favored this much as going back, the Wizards are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games. Meanwhile, the Pistons are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 road games against teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600 so they have played up to the level of competition when needed. 10* (701) Detroit Pistons |
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11-11-14 | Sacramento Kings v. Dallas Mavericks -6.5 | Top | 98-106 | Win | 100 | 13 h 18 m | Show |
The results have been mixed for the Mavericks as their four wins have come against three teams that will struggle to make the playoffs while the three teams they have lost to will be in the postseason. The jury is still out on tonight's opponent but after losing at home to Miami on Sunday, I expect Dallas to come back strong tonight. Dallas followed up its first two losses this season with big wins by 18 and 23 points over Utah and losing consecutive games has been a rarity as the Mavericks have won 17 of their last 20 regular season games following a defeat and they are 45-14 ATS in their last 59 games following a loss. The Kings have been one of the big surprises in the NBA and because Sacramento is off to a 5-2 start on the season, the Mavericks will not be taking the Kings lightly and with Philadelphia, Minnesota and Charlotte on deck, there is no chance for looking toward the future. The Kings suffered their second loss of the season as they lost at Oklahoma City and that can be chalked up as a bad loss with all of the issues the Thunder are going through. So which Kings team is the real Kings team? I think it is a mix of both as they are better but they are not as good as the record shows. Dallas has owned this series with 20 straight home victories but this is the lowest number it has had to lay at home in two years. 10* (508) Dallas Mavericks |
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11-10-14 | Atlanta Hawks v. New York Knicks +1.5 | Top | 91-85 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
This is the second game of a home-and-home between the Hawks and Knicks and New York will be out to avenge the loss in Atlanta on Saturday. That defeat made it four straight losses for the Knicks following a 1-2 start but the last three have come on the road so a return home should have them ready to break the skid. Additionally, they are on a 1-4 ATS skid and have yet to cover at home this season, going 0-3 so while getting points here isn't surprising, it is about who they are getting points from. Atlanta is 0-3 on the road this season following a dismal 16-29 record on the road a season ago. The Hawks have played well in the last two road games but have been unable to come away with a victory and going back, they are 5-15 ATS in their last 20 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. New York is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 games after playing three consecutive road games and they fall into a great situation where we play against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 after two or more consecutive overs, that are averaging 102 or more ppg going up against teams allowing between 98 and 102 ppg. This situation is 31-9 ATS (77.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (706) New York Knicks |
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11-09-14 | Golden State Warriors v. Phoenix Suns +1 | Top | 95-107 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
After a perfect 2-0 start, Phoenix has gone just 1-3 over its last four games including two straight losses at home. The Suns lost in overtime against Sacrament last time out and going back to that perfect start, that have gone four games without a cover. Despite this run, the Suns are 25-9-1 ATS in their last 35 games following an ATS loss. Golden St. meanwhile is off to a perfect 5-0 start and has covered every game along the way, hence the Warriors are listed as road favorites tonight. We won with them on Thursday and they are coming off another win last night at Houston, which also came into Saturday undefeated, so they are ripe for their first letdown on the season following two huge wins. And with a game at San Antonio on Tuesday, Golden St. also can be guilty of a possible lookahead to that one. Phoenix is 23-12 ATS after allowing 105 points or more over the last two seasons so it is in a solid bounceback spot here. The home team won all four meetings a season ago and I expect this year to start off with the same. 10* (512) Phoenix Suns |
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11-08-14 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Los Angeles Clippers -4 | Top | 102-106 | Push | 0 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
After losing two games last weekend, Portland has picked things up this with two massive wins as it defeated Cleveland by 19 points and Dallas by 21 points. Those games were at home however where four of the first five games for the Blazers have taken place this season. They lost their lone road outing at Sacramento which was over a week ago and they hit the road again for just the second time this season following a three-game homestand. While the Blazers have won two straight, the Clippers are coming off a loss at Golden St. on Wednesday and it was not a good one. The final deficit was 17 points but the game was not even that close as garbage points narrowed the gap and after the defeat, the Clippers find themselves 0-5 ATS, one of only three teams in the NBA without a cover. It is about effort as they have been outrebounded in every game and couldn't hold double-digit leads in four games so we can expect a full out effort today after some comments after the Warriors game should have them ready to go. Clippers head coach Doc Rivers called his players "soft" and in a league full of egos, that is motivation enough. The Clippers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a SU loss of more than 10 points and they get back into the win column on Saturday with their best effort of the season. 10* (702) Los Angeles Clippers |
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11-07-14 | Dallas Mavericks -2.5 v. Utah Jazz | Top | 105-82 | Win | 100 | 14 h 42 m | Show |
While Dallas played good for a half last night, the Mavericks fell apart in the second half as they fell behind by 27 points and ended up losing by 21. Dallas had won three straight games prior to Thursday and now it will look to bounce back in the second of a back-to-back set at Utah which it has beaten in six straight meetings. The Mavericks dropped to 1-2 on the road but going back, they are 39-14 ATS in their last 53 road games against teams with a winning home record. Utah last played on Wednesday and was able to defeat the Cavaliers on a last second shot to move to 2-3 on the season. The Jazz are in a classic letdown spot tonight and winning consecutive games has been a rarity the last couple years. Last season, Utah was just 7-17 following a victory including a 4-12 record following a home win. The Jazz are 0-1 following a win this season and they catch Dallas at a bad time as the Mavericks are 25-7 ATS in their last 32 games following a loss of more than 10 points. Additionally, this game falls into one of the great bounce angles as we play against home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are coming off a home win by three points or less, in November games. This situation is 24-1 ATS (96 percent) since 1996. 10* (519) Dallas Mavericks |
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11-06-14 | San Antonio Spurs v. Houston Rockets OVER 199.5 | Top | 81-98 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
Through eight games combined between these two teams, the under has come in all eight times which sets up a great opportunity tonight for a higher scoring game and we are getting a good number to play with. San Antonio played last night and blew a 17-point lead but was able to hang on in a low scoring game that finished with just 86 points. Prior to that, the Spurs and Suns finished with only 83 points so I expect things to change here. As for Houston, the offense has been able to score in bunches as it has gone over 100 points in all five of its games but it has been the defense that has kept the under run going as the Rockets have allowed no more than 93 points through five games. While the Spurs offense has been quiet thus far, remember that they were fourth in the NBA last season in scoring with 103 ppg. Houston meanwhile is right around its average from a season ago so we should see both offenses find success tonight. The first meeting last season went over the total and while the final three meetings all stayed under, two of those would have gone over if using tonight's number as those final three games has over/under totals of 212.5, 209 and 211.5. The over is 12-3-1 in the Rockets last 16 home games against teams with a losing road record while the over is 18-7 in the Spurs last 25 road games after a game where they failed to cover the spread. 10* Over (701) San Antonio Spurs/(702) Houston Rockets |
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11-05-14 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Golden State Warriors -3 | Top | 104-121 | Win | 100 | 14 h 10 m | Show |
We lost with the Clippers in their last game as they were coming off a loss against Sacramento in their previous game and while they did bounce back with a victory, they failed to cover. Now they hit the road for the first time this season as their lone road game came at the Staples Center against the Lakers, which doesn't count as hitting the road, and the challenge will certainly be a tough one. The first four games came against some soft opposition as three of those teams are not going to make the playoffs while the fourth, Oklahoma City, is a mess right now. Now the Clippers head to Golden St. to take on the undefeated Warriors, which are off to their best start in 20 years. The Warriors are 3-0 and they will b e sky high tonight as they will be out for some payback after the Clippers eliminated them from the playoffs last season in a classic seven-game series. Golden St. will be getting David Lee back tonight who missed the first three games of the season with a hamstring injury. Andrew Bogut, who was injured during last seasons first round of the playoffs and did not play, is leading the team with 9.0 rpg so he and Lee together is big. The Warriors are 11-1-1 ATS in their last 13 games playing on two days rest and they have covered 16 of the last 21 home meetings in this series. Revenge will be sweet tonight. 10* (524) Golden St. Warriors |
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11-04-14 | Phoenix Suns v. Los Angeles Lakers UNDER 215 | Top | 112-106 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 34 m | Show |
These teams played six days ago and while they went over the total then, the value has shifted quite a bit to the other side. And a lot of that is due to what has taken place to start the season. The Lakers are off to a 0-4 start with all of those games going above the total. The noteworthy thing is that each game has seen a higher total going forward as it has gone from 207 to 208 to 210 to 210.5 and now it has gone all the way up to 215 in some spots which is a huge adjustment. On the other side, Phoenix has gone over in two of its first three games including last time out at Utah where it lost by 27 points. This too is the highest total that the Suns have seen this season as the previous high has been 208. The Lakers defense has been the main culprit in their slow start to the season and they are aware that they need to buckle down. Los Angeles is allowing a league-high 118.0 ppg but that number is not high because of pace, which is an important factor in totals. The Lakers are allowing an average of 77.3 shot attempts per game which is fifth lowest in the league so they have been on the wrong side of some hot shooting teams, especially from long range where opposing teams are averaging a league-high 12.8 three-point makes per game. On the other side, Suns games are seeing 169.3 shots per game from both sides which is the fifth lowest in the league. Going back to last season, the under is 8-2-2 in the Suns last 12 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game while the under is 4-0 in the Lakers last four games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game. 10* Under (715) Phoenix Suns/(716) Los Angeles Lakers |
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11-03-14 | Utah Jazz v. Los Angeles Clippers -8 | Top | 101-107 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 4 m | Show |
The Clippers are coming off a loss last night after opening the season 2-0 so this will be the first opportunity to bounce back off a defeat. They were fantastic in this spot a season ago as they won 23 of 31 games following a loss and they were even better in this tightener. Los Angeles was 6-0 last season when playing at home immediately coming off a home loss. The Clippers covered five of those six games and the six victories came by an average of 19.2 ppg with five coming by double-digits. Los Angeles has yet to cover a game this season so it is getting a very good line tonight and the lowest of the season. Utah meanwhile has started just the opposite as it was blown out in its first two games against Houston and Dallas before destroying Phoenix by 27 points at home on Saturday. Last season, the Jazz went 7-17 following a victory including going just 1-5 in six road games following a victory at home. Those five losses came by an average of 14.2 ppg and one of those happened to come against the Clippers after a home win over the Lakers. That loss was by only eight points but Utah was getting 14.5 points in that one so we are laying a very reasonable number tonight based on that differential. The Clippers have won nine straight in this series including five straight at home, coming by an average of 11 ppg. 10* (512) Los Angeles Clippers |
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11-02-14 | Golden State Warriors v. Portland Trail Blazers -3.5 | Top | 95-90 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 33 m | Show |
This game is off the board in most places due to the uncertainty of Warriors forward David Lee but he likely will not play and won't make his season debut until later in the week. It hasn't mattered for the start of Golden St. however as it is 2-0, winning the first two games by 18 and 23 points. Those games were against the Kings and Lakers however so the Warriors take a big step up in competition here. While Golden St. drilled Sacramento, Portland went there and lost by nine points two nights later which puts the Blazers in a great bounce back spot tonight as they return home. We won with Portland on Wednesday as it ran away from Oklahoma City in the fourth quarter and catching the Warriors off a win last night and having to travel sets up the good opportunity. Over the last six seasons, the Blazers are 5-1 after losing their first game and the loss on Friday should serve as an early wake up call. The teams split the season series last year, each winning one game at home and one game on the road. Portland's success comes down to the play of LaMarcus Aldridge as in the two losses, he either didn't play or was limited while in the two victories, he scored 30 and 27 points while hauling down a combined 28 boards. He has paced the Blazers in the first two games of the season, averaging 24.5 ppg. Look for the Blazers to rebound with a big win tonight. 10* (708) Portland Trailblazers |
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11-01-14 | Indiana Pacers +10.5 v. Atlanta Hawks | Top | 92-102 | Win | 100 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
The Pacers lost at home last night against a very good Memphis team and now have to hit the road for the first time this season. This is a different team from last year for sure but it looks as though they have lost the respect of the linesmakers. The Hawks were last favored by double-digits in April of last season, right before the playoffs, against the Sixers by 12.5 points. While that team hasn't changed much nor has Atlanta, this line is saying that Indiana is just two points better that Philadelphia? I don't think so. The loss of Paul George, not to mention Lance Stevenson, is no doubt huge but it is not as big as this line may be telling us. This is a 14.5-point swing from the opening game of the playoffs that was played here and it is simply too big of an adjustment. That game against the Sixers was the only time Atlanta was a double-digit favorite all season. The Hawks lost their opener in Toronto on Wednesday so they will be out to make up for that as well as avenging the first round playoff loss to the Pacers last season. Revenge can only go so far in certain cases however as it is hard to get up for it when the opposing team is different from the previous version. Atlanta was a lot better at home than on the road last season but a 24-17 record in its gym is nothing to get excited about. Plain and simple, the Hawks have no business laying double-digits to any team. 10* (513) Indiana Pacers |
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10-31-14 | Cleveland Cavaliers +4 v. Chicago Bulls | Top | 114-108 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
Overreactions in any sport are common and that certainly includes the NBA which we are seeing right here. We played against the Cavaliers last night and as expected, they did not play very good in the debut of the "New Big Three" but they have a chance to bounce back tonight. I certainly do not expect the chemistry of the new roster to be at 100 percent after just one game but I do expect the team to be a lot more focused after last night which was a circus atmosphere in Cleveland and that is putting it lightly so hitting the road right away is a very good thing. The Bulls opened their season with a resounding win over the Knicks on the road, the same Knicks team that just beat Cleveland last night so doing the math means Chicago rolls tonight. If only it were that easy. The Bulls are contenders right behind Cleveland in the Eastern Conference thanks to the return of a healthy Derrick Rose but he was pretty average in his season debut. The Bulls will be fired up tonight to host LeBron and company but they too have some chemistry issues with a lot of new personnel even though it may not have shown in the first game. While the Cavaliers felt the pressure at home last night, the Bulls could feel that same pressure in their home opener tonight and I expect Cleveland to bounce back Friday night. 10* (703) Cleveland Cavaliers |
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10-30-14 | New York Knicks +12.5 v. Cleveland Cavaliers | Top | 95-90 | Win | 100 | 14 h 54 m | Show |
The Knicks got throttled last night, their second worst opening night loss in franchise history while Cleveland opens its season as favorites to win the NBA Championship. Who do you think the public will be on here? It was a bad offensive display last night against the Bulls as New York shot just 36.5 percent from the floor including 17.6 percent from long range. Carmelo Anthony finished with just 14 points but it wasn't just him as everyone shot the ball bad but some of that credit has to be given to the Chicago defense. Things can only get better. This is a big night in Cleveland for obvious reasons but we cannot be handing the Cavaliers a championship yet. Remember back in October 2010 when the highly anticipated Big Three of Miami took the floor for the first time and lost against Boston. That Heat team would start the year 9-8 before finally getting going and the point here is that this new team in Cleveland is not going to come out on fire and blow every one away early on. There are going to be chemistry issues early on and we can take advantage of the early overvalued lines. New head coach David Blatt even said that he feels his team is ready to go, but realizes the Big 3 still need time to jell. New York went 4-0 ATS in its final four games following a double-digit loss last season and the Knicks are getting more points tonight than they did in any game last year which again shows the drastic overadjustment of this line. 10* (503) New York Knicks |
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10-29-14 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Portland Trail Blazers -8 | Top | 89-106 | Win | 100 | 15 h 16 m | Show |
This is a good opportunity for Portland to jump on one of the frontrunners in the Western Conference. This is a big number for the Blazers to be laying against one of the top teams in the conference but it is more that justified. First off, Portland is a team on the rise as it improved by 21 games last season from the previous one and has a chance to break into the elite. Second, the home floor is one of the best around and opening night will surely make it even more electric. Third, the Thunder enter the season as one of the most banged up teams in the NBA. Kevin Durant is out for an extended period of time while five other players are either out tonight or will be limited. Andre Roberson and Perry Jones will make their way back to the court tonight to start at shooting guard and small forward, respectively, but Durant, Anthony Morrow, Reggie Jackson, Mitch McGary and Grant Jerrett will not make the trip leaving the Thunder with nine active players for tonight's game. This is a tricky situation as the Thunder also play tomorrow night as they are in Los Angeles to play the Clippers so managing this team and the minutes will be difficult. Portland and Oklahoma City split their four games last season and a depleted Thunder team should be no match tonight as the Blazers pull away. 10* (724) Portland Trailblazers |
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10-29-14 | Washington Wizards v. Miami Heat -4 | Top | 95-107 | Win | 100 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
This is a big game for Miami, a statement game if you will. The Heat were embarrassed in the NBA finals last season against San Antonio as they lost four games to one with all four losses resulting in double-digit blowouts. That alone should provide some motivation heading into the new season. However, we also have a different motivator going tonight as Miami will be out to play hard to win following the departure of LeBron James who went back to Cleveland in the offseason. This has been a great angle over the years where we see a team step it up in their first game of the season after the team's superstar hit the road. We recall the Cavaliers doing it their first game after LeBron left as they defeated Boston in 2010. Washington would normally provide a formidable opponent but the Wizards are not close to 100 percent. They made a great run last season and are expect to be a top four team in the Eastern Conference but tonight they head to Miami without some key contributors. Nene and DeJuan Blair are serving suspensions, Bradley Beal is out with a wrist injury, Kris Humphries is out with a hand injury and Martel Webster was already on the shelf after back surgery over the summer. Because of low expectations in Miami, we are getting a solid number which is eight points less than the first meeting last season. 10* (710) Miami Heat |
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10-28-14 | Dallas Mavericks +4 v. San Antonio Spurs | Top | 100-101 | Win | 100 | 13 h 16 m | Show |
This is one of the best scenarios to go against on opening day. It is banner day in San Antonio and we know what that means. The Spurs will be lowering their 2013-14 NBA Championship banner on Tuesday night and playing a basketball game is not at the forefront for the players right now. This is a huge event and with that comes a lot of distractions. Players have been saying that once the banner is lowered and the game starts, they will be focused but that is easier said than done. Now let's go back to the NBA Champion angle. Prior NBA Champions are usually slow starting out of the gate the following season since their lines are over-adjusted to start the season. The last 13 NBA Champions (Dallas, Boston, San Antonio four times, Miami three times, Detroit and LA Lakers three times) have combined for a 40-66 ATS mark (37.8 percent) through their first two weeks of the following year. Distractions and overvaluation are definitely keys to this. We have seen it in the season opening game for the reigning NBA Champions for six of the last eight seasons. San Antonio won its fifth NBA Championship since 2003 after defeating Miami in five games and hosts Dallas on opening night. The Spurs are again one of the favorites to win again this season and Dallas will be out for some revenge after losing in the Western Conference quarterfinals in seven games. The Mavericks have fared well in this matchup, winning six of the last seven meetings against the numbers and the underdog has covered eight of the last nine meetings in this series. Look for Dallas to keep this one close and the outright win is far from out of the question. 10* (501) Dallas Mavericks |
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06-15-14 | Miami Heat +6 v. San Antonio Spurs | Top | 87-104 | Loss | -109 | 36 h 41 m | Show |
To say Miami's back is against the wall is an understatement as two home losses have put it down 3-1 in this series and it will need to win out to defend its NBA titles. While that may be asking too much, I expect an all out effort on Sunday to remain alive and we are getting some added value on top of it. This is the biggest number the Heat have seen in this series thus far and it is due to the dominance that the Spurs have put forth through the first four games. If nothing else, I expect a close game, much closer than what we have witnessed the last two games. After Miami lost Game One by 15 points, it bounced back to win Game Two and it is in a similar situation here in that it will have two days off in-between games and that is very important for a team that looked completely out of gas on Thursday. Obviously the key is to slow down the Spurs offense which is shooting 54.2 percent in the series. The NBA Finals record for a series of any length is 52.7 percent which show the high level of efficiency. The best player on the floor has not been the best player thus far and when it comes elimination time, LeBron James has stepped up in the past. His 45-point game in Boston in the 2012 Eastern Conference finals, a triple-double against the Spurs in Game Six last year and scoring 37 points in Game Seven shows his ability to take over when needed. The Heat have covered four of their last five games after a double-digit loss and we will see another cover at the very least on Sunday. 10* (709) Miami Heat |
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06-12-14 | San Antonio Spurs v. Miami Heat -5 | Top | 107-86 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 11 m | Show |
After getting homecourt advantage away from San Antonio with a Game Two win, the Heat gave it right back with their second blowout loss in this series to fall behind 2-1. Realistically, Miami could be down 3-0 in this series as it escaped with a two-point win on Sunday to even the series so while many will point to the Spurs as being the dominating team with a chance to really open up the series tonight, we have yet to see Miami play even close to its best game and I expect that to happen tonight. San Antonio scored a record 41 points in the first quarter to open up a big lead and never look back in Game Three and it went on to shoot 59.4 percent from the floor. Lost in the incredible offensive performance from the Spurs is the fact that they had a rough time stopping Miami from efficiently scoring. LeBron James shot 9-of-14 (64.3 percent), Dwyane Wade went 8-for-12 (66.7 percent), and Chris Bosh shot a perfect 4-for-4. Overall, Miami shot 51.6 percent from the floor. The Heat are in good position for a bounceback as they are 4-0 in the playoffs following a loss and going back to 2012, they are a perfect 13-0 in the postseason when coming off a defeat. Additionally, the Heat are 24-9 ATS in their last 33 games following a loss of more than 10 points. While san Antonio has control of the series knowing two of the final three games are at home, this is an absolute must win for Miami and while it is laying more than in Game Three, I don't expect it to come into play. 10* (708) Miami Heat |
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06-10-14 | San Antonio Spurs v. Miami Heat -4 | Top | 111-92 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 39 m | Show |
Miami brought home the victory in Game Two and it now is in the drivers seat. The series now shifts to Miami with the Heat holding home-court advantage, and renewed confidence after another series-tying victory in a long list of clutch postseason performances. They battled back more than once and made up for the effort in Game One where they went 3-16 after LeBron James left the game and it was the defense that shined the most when needed. After shooting 14 for 16 in the fourth quarter of Game One, the Spurs were 6 of 17 in Game Two and they closed at 43.9 percent from the field after shooting 58.8 percent in Game One. Miami is 8-0 straight up and 6-2 ATS at home in the postseason so it has done an excellent job of taking care of its home court and while this will be the biggest test, the Heat will again be up for the challenge to not give back that home court advantage right away. Going back to last season, the Heat are 18-3 in their last 21 home playoff games and going back since the start of the 2011-12 postseason, they are 29-5 in their last 34 games at home. The Spurs meanwhile haven't exactly been getting it done on the road as they are 2-7 ATS in their last nine road games against teams with a winning home record while the Heat are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games against teams with a winning road record. 10* (706) Miami Heat |
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06-08-14 | Miami Heat +4.5 v. San Antonio Spurs | Top | 98-96 | Win | 100 | 57 h 11 m | Show |
The Heat were defeated by 15 points against San Antonio on Thursday but it was not as bad of a loss as the final score showed. Miami actually had a seven-point lead in the fourth quarter but after LeBron James had to leave the game because of cramping, the Heat crumbled. The Spurs outscored the Heat 16-3 after James left the game. Game Two is now as close as a must win game can be as falling behind 2-0 in this series could be overwhelming. The Spurs showed why they finished with the best record in the NBA but it will be up to Miami to show why it has won back-to-back championships and it will not fall down again. Credit the Spurs for playing an excellent game despite committing 22 turnovers as they shot an absurd 58.8 percent for the game and an unreal 14 for 16 in the fourth quarter. Don't expect a repeat performance of that and Miami definitely caught the biggest break with two days off in-between Game One and Game Two so the rest factor is huge and obviously for James the most. Miami is 3-0 in the playoffs following a loss and going back to 2012, it is a perfect 12-0 in the postseason when coming off a defeat. Additionally, the Heat are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 games following a loss of more than 10 points. Look for Miami to grab the home court advantage and head home with the series tied. 10* (703) Miami Heat |
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06-05-14 | Miami Heat v. San Antonio Spurs -3.5 | Top | 95-110 | Win | 100 | 84 h 17 m | Show |
The two top teams in the NBA did their part in the Conference Finals and now meet in the NBA Finals for a second straight season. Both will have had ample time off to rest and that is more in favor of the Spurs due to the ankle situation with Tony Parker but all indications are that he will be ready to go in Game One on Thursday. This is the matchup San Antonio wanted as it wants to avenge last season's series loss that went the distance but could have been won by the Spurs if not for Ray Allen's three-pointer with 5.2 seconds left in regulation in Game Six that sent the game into overtime. While the Heat had home court advantage last season, San Antonio controls it this time around and Game One is the pivotal contest for the Spurs. Despite being the elite of the NBA, the two meetings during the regular season were anything but competitive as Miami won the first game at home by 12 points and the Spurs returned the favor with a 24-point drubbing of the Heat on their home floor. I think we can expect a few closer games in this series although last year's finals saw only two games decided by fewer than seven points. Miami won only two of seven games this regular season when it was an underdog and I expect that to continue for at least one more game. The Spurs have covered seven straight games at home and they get the early series edge with a win and cover on Thursday. 10* (702) San Antonio Spurs |
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05-31-14 | San Antonio Spurs v. Oklahoma City Thunder OVER 206 | Top | 112-107 | Win | 100 | 14 h 60 m | Show |
We had the over here in Game Five and things were looking very good until a 38-point fourth quarter did us in and it resulted in either a push or a loss depending on the number. We are coming right back with it again here tonight. The home team has dominated this series thus far as the host has taken all five games and none have been close as nine points has been the smallest margin of victory. While we could see a close game finally tonight, we are going with the bounce angle toward the total as we are more apt to see a high scoring game which has been missing the last four games. After going over the total in the first game of this series, the last four games have all stayed under the number and not only does that give us a great contrarian opportunity but it gives us value in the number. Also mentioned on Thursday, this has been a series where one team has flourished on offense while the other has been horrible and it has been the home team dominating the offensive numbers 50.7 percent to 41.5 percent and we have yet to see a complete offensive games from both sides which is very surprising due to the quality of these teams. While we are on a run of unders in this series, San Antonio is 6-1 to the under in its last seven games while Oklahoma City is 7-1 to the under in its last eight games so we are going against even bigger streaks and I definitely expect that to change tonight. 10* Over (523) San Antonio Spurs/(524) Oklahoma City Thunder |
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05-30-14 | Indiana Pacers +7.5 v. Miami Heat | Top | 92-117 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
Miami took control of this series with three straight wins after losing the opening game and many feel that after the Game Five loss, it ends tonight. While that may be the case because the Heat are at home, we are getting some great value in this line as they are favored by a bucket more than they were in the first two games played here. Miami had no issues in the first two games played here but we should see a different Pacers team tonight as the momentum from Wednesday is a big factor. We saw it in their last series against Washington after Indiana won at home in Game Two, they rolled on the road following that victory. The Pacers need someone besides Paul George and Lance Stephenson to step up, and some combination of David West, who scored 19 points in Game Five, and center Roy Hibbert could be the difference. On top of everything else, this is the biggest line that Indiana has gotten all season long and while it was not very competitive here in the first two games, it is a different scenario now. With their backs once again up against the wall, the Pacers come through. 10* (521) Indiana Pacers |
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05-29-14 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. San Antonio Spurs OVER 206 | Top | 89-117 | Push | 0 | 15 h 35 m | Show |
The home team has dominated this series thus far as the host has taken all three games and none have been close as nine points has been the smallest margin of victory. While we could see a close game finally tonight, we are going with the bounce angle toward the total as we are more apt to see a high scoring game which has been missing the last three games. After going over the total in the first game of this series, the last three games have all stayed under the number and not only does that give us a great contrarian opportunity but it gives us value in the number. We have seen the total steadily decline since Game Two as it has gone from 209.5 to 208 to 207.5 to 206 for tonight and dropping three and a half points in a few games is a huge swing. This has been a series where one team has flourished on offense while the other has been horrible and it has been the home team dominating the offensive numbers 50.6 percent to 41.1 percent. This could very well be the game that both teams play a complete game on offense and even of the Thunder can improve slightly from their first two games in San Antonio which won't be hard to do, this one goes over easily. The over is 5-0 in the Thunder's last five games following a win of more than 10 points while the over is 12-3 in the Spurs last 15 games following a loss of more than 10 points. 10* Over (519) Oklahoma City Thunder/(520) San Antonio Spurs |
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05-28-14 | Miami Heat v. Indiana Pacers UNDER 185 | Top | 90-93 | Win | 100 | 15 h 30 m | Show |
We cashed both the Under in Game Two and the Over in Game Three in this series and we go back to the totals for Game Five as we are again catching some solid value. The last two games of this series have surpassed the number and because of that, the number is now a bucket higher than it was in those previous two games. Additionally, the total is the highest it has been this series (tied with Game Two) that went under the total by 14.5 points. With Indiana's playoff lives on the line tonight, I expect its defense to come up huge as that is the trademark that has gotten them to where they are. The Pacers have allowed Miami to shoot 50.7 percent from the floor during the first four games of this series so now it is time to buckle down to stay alive. The Pacers are now on their first three-game playoff losing streak since losing Games Four, Five and Six against the Heat in the 2012 Eastern Conference semifinals and while it is going to be difficult to come all the way back even with a win here, it cannot do so by getting into a shootout with Miami so possessions will play a big role here as well. Last year in Game Six of the Eastern Conference Finals, Indiana was facing a similar spot as home in an elimination game and buckled down and won with the game finishing with just 168 points scored. I see this game to play out a similar way. The Under is 4-0 in the Pacers last four games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. 10* Under (517) Miami Heat/(518) Indiana Pacers |
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05-27-14 | San Antonio Spurs v. Oklahoma City Thunder -2.5 | Top | 92-105 | Win | 100 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
After getting blown out in San Antonio in the first two games of this series, the Thunder responded with a win on their home floor to get back into the Western Conference Finals. The home floor certainly helped but Serge Ibaka returned for Game Three after missing the first two games of the Western Conference Finals with a calf injury. His miraculous return was a huge difference as he provided the type of rim protection the Spurs didn't see back in San Antonio. In the first two games, the Spurs had 120 points in the paint but on Sunday, they only had 40. He is going to be back for Game Four which gives Oklahoma City the chance to even up this series before heading back to San Antonio. The Spurs have covered just one of their last seven road games and on the season, they are only 11-14 ATS in their 25 road games against teams with a winning record. Additionally, the Thunder have covered eight straight meetings at home in this series and they are 15-3 ATS in their last 18 home games against teams with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. While this game is big for both sides, it is more important for Oklahoma City as a 3-1 deficit with two games remaining in San Antonio would spell disaster. 10* (516) Oklahoma City Thunder |
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05-26-14 | Indiana Pacers +6.5 v. Miami Heat | Top | 90-102 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
After losing the opening game, Miami has regained control of this series with two straight wins and it looks to take a commanding 3-1 lead before going back to Indiana. The Pacers will have something to say about that however. The series could easily be 2-1 in their favor and even 3-0 for that matter as they blew it late at home in Game Two and lost a 15-point lead in Game Three. Prior to Miami's back-to-back victories, the teams had alternated wins and losses in 13 straight meetings which shows how evenly matched up they really are but it has been the Pacers that have had the trouble of closing. The Heat have trailed by at least eight points in the first quarter of each of the first three games of this series so give them credit for coming back in two of those but also give credit to Indiana for the good starts and another one could mean an even series going back to Indiana. The Pacers shot 12-of-36 on jump shots Saturday, including 6-of-20 (30 percent) on uncontested jumpers, their worst in a game this playoffs so we will see a better performance in Game Four. The Pacers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss of more than 10 points and the outright win isn't out of the question. 10* (513) Indiana Pacers |
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05-25-14 | San Antonio Spurs v. Oklahoma City Thunder -2 | Top | 97-106 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
The Spurs are proving to be the best team in the NBA after dominating the first two games of this series at home. The Western Conference Finals now switch to Oklahoma City and this has now turned into a must win game for the Thunder as a 0-3 deficit will pretty much do them in. I expect a turnaround tonight. While the Thunder followed up a Game One loss with another defeat, they are 19-10 this season following a loss and the short price here likely means a cover as well. San Antonio is playing its best basketball right now but the Spurs have covered just one of their last six road games and on the season, they are only 11-13 ATS in their 24 road games against teams with a winning record. Additionally, the Thunder have covered seven straight meetings at home in this series and they are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 home games against teams with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. Oklahoma City gets back into the series with a big victory on Sunday. 10* (512) Oklahoma City Thunder |
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05-24-14 | Indiana Pacers v. Miami Heat OVER 183 | Top | 87-99 | Win | 100 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
We have seen this total go from one extreme to the other as Miami and Indiana combined for 203 points in Game One and then dropped to 170 points in Game Two. The posted totals have reflected the points scored as they have moved each game according to what happened in the prior game and we are seeing it again here albeit ever so slightly. The defenses were not on the floor in the first game but both stepped up last time out or did they? Miami shot 50.7 percent from the floor despite the low point total and it is hitting slightly over 51 percent through the first two games and a return home should keep that going. Four the Heat's last five home games have surpassed the total and while Indiana has played under mostly on the road of late, the Over is 10-4-1 in the Pacers last 15 road games against teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. The extended time off also helps the cause as Indiana is 4-0 to the over in its last four games playing with three or more days rest while the over is 18-7-1 in Miami's last 26 games playing with three or more days rest. 10* Over (509) Indiana Pacers/(510) Miami Heat |
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05-21-14 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. San Antonio Spurs UNDER 212 | Top | 77-112 | Win | 100 | 14 h 13 m | Show |
Similar to the Miami/Indiana game last night, we are seeing a jump in this total due to the results from Game One. In this case, the Thunder and Spurs combined for 227 points which went over the total by close to 20 points and now the over/under has gone from a 208.5 closing in Game One to as high as 212 in some places on Wednesday for Game Two. We are going the value route once again and while neither of these teams are on big over runs which would increase the contrarian values, the defenses are not getting the respect they deserve here. While both offenses are very potent, the defenses are overshadowed as the Thunder are allowing 43.7 percent shooting and the Spurs are allowing 44.3 percent shooting and combined they allow just over 198 ppg. The big factor tonight will be the Oklahoma City defense as it was damaged the most in the opener by allowing 57.5 percent shooting no thanks to giving up 66 points in the paint. On the other side, the Spurs have to shore up as well as they allowed 59 first half points. Kevin Durant has surpassed his scoring average in just one of five meetings this season, while Russell Westbrook shot below 50 percent for the 23rd time in 28 career matchups. The Under is 4-1 in the Thunder's last five games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game while the Under is 14-6 in the Spurs last 20 games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. 10* Under (507) Oklahoma City Thunder/(508) San Antonio Spurs |
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05-20-14 | Miami Heat v. Indiana Pacers UNDER 185 | Top | 87-83 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
We are getting some good value with the total tonight after the first game went over the number by 21 points. It was the fourth straight game that Miami has gone over the total as well as sixth in the last seven games and that is a streak we like going against as it offers solid contrarian value. Indiana has been mostly on an under run with six of its last nine games staying below the total and this number again fits. This total is right in the range where Indiana has stayed under the number in a vast majority of its games this season. When the total is in the 180's, the Pacers are 32-12 to the under since the start of the season. Game One saw Miami shoot 51.3 percent from the floor and Indiana shoot 51.5 percent from the floor and both teams are going to be out to tighten up those defenses as they both came in playing well on that side of the floor. Throughout 14 postseason games thus far, Indiana has shot 44.8 percent from the field including 38.2 percent from beyond the arc and that is a lot more realistic of what we should see tonight. The fact that Indiana was able to generate such efficient offense was surprising enough on its own, but the fact it pulled it off against an opponent so familiar with its limited playbook was even more surprising. The Pacers are the better of the two defenses in this matchup and we will see a definite improvement there. The under is 9-4 in the Pacers last 13 home games against teams with a winning road record. 10* Under (505) Miami Heat/(506) Indiana Pacers |
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05-19-14 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. San Antonio Spurs -5.5 | Top | 105-122 | Win | 100 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
The Thunder lost the opening game against the Clippers but came back to win four of the next five to advance to the Western Conference finals. San Antonio meanwhile had no trouble with Portland after taking two of the final three games against Dallas so it is playing some of its best basketball right now and it certainly caught a break in this series. The loss of Serge Ibaka for Oklahoma is huge as it really affects both sides of the floor. Offensively, he is their third scoring option and during the playoffs, he averaged 12.2 ppg on 61.6 percent shooting and that will be missed. Defensively, it will be even more painful as Oklahoma City had a big matchup edge with him against the Spurs this season. San Antonio's offense averaged 93 points per 100 possessions when Ibaka was on the court, and 120.8 (shooting 51.4 percent) when he was on the bench. That is 27.8 per 100 better when he was out. Additionally, Russell Westbrook shot just 32 percent with Tony Parker guarding him during the regular season and now with Ibaka out, the offense of the Thunder could really suffer. Oklahoma City has been awesome as an underdog this season but I don't like the setup in Game One. While the Spurs don't need extra motivation, the fact they were swept 4-0 during the regular season against Oklahoma City should give them an extra push to not only win, but win big and make a statement to open this series. 10* (504) San Antonio Spurs |
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05-18-14 | Miami Heat -2 v. Indiana Pacers | Top | 96-107 | Loss | -107 | 52 h 50 m | Show |
The home team dominated the regular season series, winning all four meetings and going back to last season, it has been eight straight games since the visitor was able to taste victory. That changes in Game One of the Eastern Conference Finals on Sunday. Indiana closed the regular season on a 10-13 run and it did its best to get ousted in the first round against Atlanta as it got taken to seven games after trailing 3-2 in the series. Against Washington, the Pacers won 4-3 but they were on the verge of heading back home for a Game Seven before a late run on Thursday night sealed a win. This team is clearly still not right and being a home underdog may be attractive to some, but not me. Miami had no issues with Charlotte in its first round sweep and while it slipped up one game against the Nets, they went through them pretty easily. The big key here is rest as the Heat played just nine playoff games while the Pacers played 13 so they will no doubt be the fresher team and on top of it, they are 4-0 ATS in their last four games playing on three or more days rest. This is the third straight season that these two have met in the playoffs and since 1994, when a team has beaten a team in consecutive years in the playoffs and then met again for a third straight year, that team has won again four out of the five times it has happened. Granted, that is the series but with Indiana having home court, Miami will have to win here and it should make a statement in Game One. The Pacers are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 home games against teams with a winning road record. 10* (501) Miami Heat |
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05-15-14 | Oklahoma City Thunder +5 v. Los Angeles Clippers | Top | 104-98 | Win | 100 | 16 h 8 m | Show |
We won the Clippers on Tuesday and while they lost outright in a very controversial ending, I expect yet another very close game tonight. It is a must win game for Los Angeles and while it is 38-9 at home on the season, the line value is significantly going the other way. If the Clippers were getting 5.5 points on the road in the last game, a typical line move for the venue change would make them a 2.5-point favorite here as home court is usually awarded four points. We are seeing a much bigger adjustment just like the one we saw from Game Four to Game Five where Oklahoma City went from a five-point underdog to a 5.5-point favorite and these 10.5-point swings are simply too much as the home floor is being given too much credit. The last two game has seen the eventual winner rally from late deficits to shock the other team as the Clippers came back from 16 points down in the fourth quarter to win Game Four while the Clippers squandered a late 13-point lead against the Oklahoma City to lose Game Five. What should we expect tonight? I think it is doubtful we see another big lead let alone one that is lost as these teams are just about dead even in scoring differential in this series through five games (108-107.8 favoring Los Angeles). The Clippers are just 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games against teams with a winning record including going 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games against teams with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. Meanwhile the Thunder are 16-7 ATS in their last 23 games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. 10* (743) Oklahoma City Thunder |
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05-14-14 | BROOKLYN GM5 v. MIAMI GM5 UNDER 189 | Top | 94-96 | Loss | -112 | 22 h 33 m | Show |
Miami and Brooklyn are in a possible playoff clinching game and while both closed their first round series with overs, I expect this one to stay below the total even though it not an elimination game for sure. Three of the first four games of this series have gone over the total including each of the last two and because of that, we are getting some added value as this total is two points higher than the last game. While a bucket may not seem like much, we have all seen how some of these come right down to the final possession or final free throw so every point counts. This also goes along the lines of using the zig zag or bounce angle and I have mentioned in the past that while the sides have not been as good in recent years, totals have still done pretty well and with us going against a two-game over run, it is even more in our favor. Going back, Brooklyn has gone over the total is seven of their last 10 games while Miami has also gone over in seven of their last 10 games and those are obviously trends that we prefer to fade as recent games tends to not only sway the public but that in turn changes the numbers. The Under is 4-0 in Miami's last four home games against teams with a road winning percentage of less than .400 while the under is 6-2 in Brooklyn's last eight games as a single-digit underdog of seven or more points. 10* Under (737) Brooklyn Nets/(738) Miami Heat |
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05-13-14 | LA CLIPPERS GM5 +5.5 v. OKLAHOMA CITY GM5 | Top | 104-105 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
The Clippers escaped with a huge win on Sunday as they rallied from a 22-point deficit to win by two points to even this series. I think that momentum carries over into Tuesday. Los Angeles shot just 25 percent in the first quarter and trailed by as many as 16 points in the final period before the huge comeback to stay in the series. The Clippers know they can win here as they did so in Game One and the value is on their side as they have failed to cover the last three games against the Thunder. Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook have played outstanding basketball in the series, but the Thunder have lost when others haven't produced. The Clippers had success with Chris Paul guarding Durant at times in the second half on Sunday. Though Durant made 7 of 10 field goals after the break, he also committed seven turnovers and Paul is known for his exceptional defense. It is that defense as a whole that will be important tonight. The Clippers have covered 10 of 16 games this season as road underdogs and they have won an outstanding 43 of 55 games outright when playing with one day of rest. The road team has dominated this series since the end of the regular season and while Los Angeles has an excellent shot at winning outright, we will grab the points and take the cover at the very least. 10* (735) Los Angeles Clippers |
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05-12-14 | MIAMI GM4 -2.5 v. BROOKLYN GM4 | Top | 102-96 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
After rolling in the first two games of this series, Miami got rolled in Game Three in Brooklyn but I expect a rebound tonight in Game Four to take control of this series. The Heat lost all four regular season meetings as the Nets were able to come up with huge plays in crunch-time which equaled three one-point wins and one double-overtime victory. Obviously all of those games could have gone the other way and Miami proved it is the better team in the first two games of this series and it now needs to do so again. Brooklyn shot lights out in Game Three as it went 52.8 percent from the floor including 60 percent from long range on 15-25 shooting but don't expect to see those types of numbers again as Miami is much better defensively. After the game, LeBron James addressed both the intensity that was lacking in Game Three, as well as the inability to keep the Nets from making 15 three-pointers. "We have to be better in Game Four," he said. "We understand that. The loose balls we gave up two threes on, not getting on the floor, we gave up some easy ones. And we can't allow that." Miami is laying an extra point and a half than it did in Game Three but it does not amount to much as it is still a one possession line. The Heat are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a loss of more than 10 points while the Nets are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games following a win. 10* (729) Miami Heat |
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05-11-14 | OKLAHOMA CITY GM4 v. LA CLIPPERS GM4 -5 | Top | 99-101 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 47 m | Show |
After blowing away Oklahoma City on the road in Game One of this series, the Clippers have lost the last two games, including the most recent one at home, and have thus given the home court advantage back to the Thunder. Now the goal is to even up this series and avoid a 3-1 hole and having to go back to Oklahoma City to try and stay alive. Los Angeles is 37-9 at home so the loss here on Friday was a rare one and it has not lost two straight games at home all season. The Clippers are a perfect 8-0 straight up and 7-1 ATS in their eight home games following a loss in their most recent home game. Arguably even more impressive is that the Clippers longest winning streak this season is just two games as they are 5-0 straight up and 4-1 ATS following two consecutive losses. Oklahoma City will be no pushover as it wants to take control of this series and while it has won three straight road games, it is just 5-6 in its last 11 games on the highway. Going back further, the Thunder are just 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 road games. Look for a great effort from the Clippers today as they even up the series on Sunday. 10* (726) Los Angeles Clippers |