Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-02-24 | Royals v. Orioles OVER 7.5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 54 m | Show |
This is a play on the KANSAS CITY ROYALS/BALTIMORE ORIOLES OVER for our Wild Card Total of the Year. The Royals and Orioles both got awesome pitching performances in Game One which leads to the offenses breaking out in Game Two on Wednesday. Cole Ragans allowed just four hits in his six innings and became just the fifth Royals pitcher with six-plus scoreless innings in a postseason start. Corbin Burnes went eight innings, allowing only five hits and the one deciding run and the two teams combined for just 10 hits. The starters come down a notch in Game Two and the total has gone up a half run with a little juice from the 7 +100 close from Game One. Seth Lugo finished the regular season with a 3.00 ERA over 33 starts and was second in baseball with 206.2 innings thrown. He has been awesome but he has only one postseason appearance, when he threw two scoreless innings for the Mets in 2022. He did struggle down the stretch as he posted a 4.15 ERA over 14 starts since July 13. On the other side, Zach Eflin was great since coming over from Tampa Bay as he posted a 2.60 ERA in nine starts but we cannot ignore his postseason history as he has a 5.17 ERA in 11 appearances while with the Rays and Phillies. Both starters could see some troubles against the opposing offenses despite the non-production on Tuesday. Baltimore was top ten in OPS, wOBA and wRC+ since the All Star Break and while the Royals were further down, ranking between No. 15 and No. 17 in those categories, it was due to a spotty end of September but we feel they have a good edge with eight of their last nine games going under as it adds value because of the low posted total on Wednesday. Play Over (917) Kansas City Royals/(918) Baltimore Orioles |
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10-17-19 | Astros v. Yankees OVER 8 | Top | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
This is a play on the OVER for our MLB Thursday Totals Dominator. We are backing a rare total for Game Four between the Yankees and Astros. The first three games of this series have gone under the total but we have a good situation tonight for the bats to break out as this is the first time the offense has seen each starting pitcher a second time. The Yankees led the majors in runs scored during the regular season but have managed just three over their last 20 innings and have stranded a ton of runners. Houston has scored only seven runs in this series but finished the regular season third in runs scored so the Astros are due. Masahiro Tanaka pitched a gem in Game One, allowing just one hit and no runs in six innings. Over his last eight starts, he has just four quality outings. Zack Greinke posted a quality outing but did allow three runs over six innings that included a pair of home runs. He has been very inconsistent of late with a 4.47 ERA over his last eight starts. In his career in the postseason, he is 3-4 with a 4.03 ERA. We've only seen one specific playoff rematch between starting pitchers in these playoffs so far which was St Louis/Atlanta Game Five with Jack Flaherty and Mike Foltynewicz squaring off after doing so in Game Two as well. The under came through in the first meeting and 14 runs were scored in the rematch. 10* Over (919) Houston Astros/(920) New York Yankees |
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04-23-19 | Phillies v. Mets OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-9 | Win | 100 | 8 h 29 m | Show |
This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES/NEW YORK METS OVER for our MLB Tuesday Totals Dominator. The Mets and Phillies went under the total last night in the series opener but we expect the offenses to bounce back tonight and with a value number on top of it. It was a rare under for the Mets which have gone 15-5-2 to the over on the season thanks to an offense that is hitting .261, good for ninth in baseball, and to a pitching staff with a 5.35 ERA, which is sixth worst in MLB. The Phillies pitching has not been much better with a 4.42 ERA and their offense is right up there as well. The starting pitching for tonight sets up for a lot of runs as Zach Eflin has posted a 4.76 ERA and 1.53 WHIP over his last three starts including giving up eight runs in 10 innings over his last two starts, both on the road. Zack Wheeler has posted a 6.35 ERA and 1.54 WHIP overall and he allowed seven runs in 4.2 innings in his lone home stat against Washington. Philadelphia falls into a great totals situation where we play the over involving National League teams averaging 4.7 or more rpg going up a pitcher with an ERA of 5.70 or worse, with a bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game. This situation is 55-27 (67.1 percent) to the over the last five seasons. 10* Over (905) Philadelphia Phillies/(906) New York Mets |
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10-06-18 | Yankees v. Red Sox OVER 9 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK YANKEES/BOSTON RED SOX OVER for our MLB Saturday Totals Dominator. The Yankees dug themselves into a 5-0 hole last night and could not get out of it although they gave it their best and look to build on that tonight. They outhit Boston 10-8 but managed only four runs and the offense has a chance to break out in a big way on Saturday. Boston was unable to get to the Yankees bullpen last night but this offense remains red hot as the Red Sox have averaged 7.6 rpg over their last seven games which have all come at Fenway Park. They finished as the best hitting team at home in the American League and have a chance to tee off again tonight. Masahiro Tanaka had a solid run from mid-August to mid-September but he has struggled over his last two starts allowing eight runs over eight innings. One of those games came against Boston which has been his least favorite team to pitch against this season as he has posted a 7.58 ERA and 1.79 WHIP in four starts. The Yankees have scored 31 runs in their last four games when facing a left-handed starter and one of those came against David Price where he was tagged for six runs in 5.1 innings. This is another bad pitching matchup as Price has a 10.34 ERA and 1.91 WHIP in four starts against the Yankees which led baseball with 82 home runs against lefty pitching, nine of which were against Price. 10* Over (953) New York Yankees/(954) Boston Red Sox |
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10-03-18 | A's v. Yankees OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 102 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
This is a play on the OAKLAND A'S/NEW YORK YANKEES OVER for our MLB Total of the Year. After a pitching duel last night in Chicago, we should be in for some offense tonight from the Bronx. We all know about the Yankees offense and what it is capable of and it comes in blazing hot, averaging 8.2 rpg over its last six games and that with putting up two runs in the season finale with the starters seeing limited action. The Oakland bats have been firing since the end of August as it has averaged 6.4 rpg over its last 27 games. Oakland employed the bullpen approach once against the Yankees with Liam Hendricks starting and while the game stayed under the total, it was due to the Oakland bats being ice cold against J.A. Happ. Hendricks gets the call tonight and he will be just the fourth pitcher to start a postseason game after a regular season of no wins, according to the Elias Sports Bureau. He has been solid when starting with the bullpenning approach but now comes the biggest test of them all. Luis Severino counters for New York and while he has been great at home this season, most of that success came in the first half. He has a 5.47 ERA in his last five starts in Yankee Stadium. He dominated Oakland in his first start, but that was in May, and he was rocked for six runs in 2.2 innings in Oakland a month ago. There is no team in the postseason that has hit better on the road than the A's. Oakland leads all playoff teams in road hits, road homers, road slugging and scoring and it ranks second in road on-base percentage. They even set a Major League record by homering in 25 straight games on the road. Here, we play the over involving road teams where the total is 8.5 to 10 after a loss by two runs or less going up against an opponent after a combined score of 12 runs or more in four straight games. This situation is 32-9 (78 percent) since 1997. 10* Over (939) Oakland A's/(940) New York Yankees |
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10-26-16 | Cubs v. Indians OVER 7 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
The Cubs suffered a 6-0 loss last night which is the third time they have been shutout in the postseason but we expect that to change tonight. We are not going to be laying a big price on the road however as it is undeserved at this point based on the starting pitching as we figure both offenses have the advantage tonight. Arrieta has been struggling over his last few starts as he has a 7.31 ERA and 1.57 WHIP in his last three games and a big reason for this is the time off between starts. He has had 12 and 8 days of rest before his first two postseason starts and he will be pitching on eight days' rest again tonight. All of these starts have been on the road but tonight presents a bigger challenge. Those first two postseason starts took place in California and now he will be pitching in very cold weather with the gametime temperature expected to be in the low 40s. He pitched in similar conditions against the Mets in the playoffs last year and was lit up. Trever Bauer lasted just two-thirds of an inning in his last start because of his lacerated pinkie finger on his throwing hand and the Indians are hoping it has healed enough not to be an issue again tonight. He has really struggled since early September as he has posted a 6.94 ERA over his last seven starts and the best part for Chicago is that Andrew Miller tossed 46 pitchers last night and will be limited tonight. After the Cubs were shutout last night, we can expect a big bounceback opportunity tonight. 10* Over (953) Chicago Cubs/(954) Cleveland Indians |
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10-19-16 | Indians v. Blue Jays OVER 8 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -107 | 7 h 22 m | Show |
Toronto kept its postseason going for at least one more day and while it is in good shape to extend this series to a Game Six and head back to Cleveland, we are not thrilled with the number the Blue Jays are being asked to lay. That being said, the total is what we are going after today as the offenses have a chance to wake up after a slow start to the series. In total through four games, there have been just 17 runs scored so it comes as no surprise that all four of those games went under the total. We take the contrarian route here with this Wednesday total that actually seems to have some value in it. There is no denying this series could get awfully interesting now that Toronto has life and Cleveland is sending such a uniquely inexperienced arm out for Game Five. Ryan Merritt will be making just his second career Major League start and while his first one 19 days ago was pretty solid against the Royals, the magnitude of this one is a touch bigger. This is a game where the Blue Jays bats can wake up in potentially their final home game of the season. Marco Estrada is coming off a solid effort in Cleveland in his first start in this series and he has now allowed two runs or less in five straight starts. However, only one of those was at home and he has not been at his best here as he has a 5.03 ERA in his last 10 starts at the Rogers Centre. The over is 5-1 in his last six home starts while the over is 16-3 in the Indians last 19 games after batting .200 or worse over a five game span. 10* Over (903) Cleveland Indians/(904) Toronto Blue Jays |
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10-07-16 | Red Sox v. Indians UNDER 7 | Top | 0-6 | Win | 114 | 7 h 49 m | Show |
We won with the over in this game last night but it was not easy with the final run coming in at the top of the eighth inning. Game Two takes place this afternoon with what should have been the Game One starters and we can expect a lot less hits than the 20 that were banged out last night. David Price gets the ball for Boston and he had a pretty average season by his standards, posting a 3.99 ERA over 35 starts. He has always struggled against the Yankees and that was the case again this season as he posted a 7.89 ERA in five starts against them. Takes those out and his ERA drops to 3.41 in his 30 other starts and he closed the season by allowing three runs or less in 10 of his last 12 starts, the only two exceptions coming against New York. While the over has come in the majority of those games, a look at the opposing starting pitcher will explain why. Corey Kluber was given an additional day of rest and should be extremely fresh after having 11 days off with tossing just 60 pitches in his last start. He had a quad issue but after two bullpen sessions, he has been deemed healthy. Overall he had another great season and like Price, he is a strikeout machine as he finished No. 5 in the American League, one behind Price. Look for a solid pitching duel in this critical Game Two. 10* Under (955) Boston Red Sox/(956) Cleveland Indians |
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10-06-16 | Red Sox v. Indians OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
The ALDS between Boston and Cleveland does not start off with the pitching matchup as expected and we could see some fireworks for Game One. The two highest scoring teams in the American League square off and the home road splits are not affected at all as Boston was the highest scoring road team in the American League while Cleveland was the second highest scoring team at home in the junior circuit. The Red Sox have the highest-scoring offense in the Majors, while averaging 5.2 rpg in their season series against Cleveland and they send Rick Porcello to the hill who took the ace tag away from David Price this season. He has been solid all season with a 3.15 ERA over 33 starts and has been the beneficiary of great run support of 6.6 rpg including 6.1 rpg in 17 road starts. Porcello will make his third career start and ninth career appearance in the postseason where he is 0-2 with a 4.41 ERA in 16.1innings. Trevor Bauer makes the Game One start over Corey Kluber who is getting an extra day of rest because of a quad strain. Bauer posted a 3.30 ERA prior to the All Star Break, but has struggled in his last five starts with a 7.28 ERA. In his lone start against Boston this season, Bauer surrendered four runs on eight hits over five innings and going back, the over is 6-1 in his last seven home starts against teams with a winning record. Meanwhile, the over is 5-1-1 in the Indians last seven games against right-handed starters while the over is 10-4 in Porcellos last 14 road starts. 10* Over (935) Boston Red Sox/(936) Cleveland Indians |
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11-01-15 | Royals v. Mets UNDER 7 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -113 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
We are bound to see a low scoring game in this World Series as offense, or lack of defense, has been the theme thus far. All four game have gone over the total and while we were looking at the first possible under last night, that didn't happen due to a botched play in the eighth inning by the Mets. They now have their backs against the wall and will rely on Matt Harvey to try and extend their season. He was decent in Game One of this series but his command was clearly off and he believes that he should be sharper on Sunday. He repeatedly noted Saturday that he is pleased that this start will come on regular rest. He had an eight-day layoff before facing the Dodgers in Game Three of the National League Division Series and waited nine days to face Kansas City the first time around. On the other side, Edinson Volquez will get the ball for the Royals and he will certainly be pitching with a heavy heart. His father passed hours before Game One of the World Series, but Volquez didn't find out until after he had pitched six innings of three-run ball. Volquez said he is excited for Sunday, calling the Game Five start "a dream come true" and saying that he will be thinking about his mother when he takes the mound, which can bring out the best. The under is 6-1 in Volquez' last seven starts against teams with a winning record while the under is 37-18-1 in the Mets last 56 interleague home games against right-handed starters. 10* Under (909) Kansas City Royals/(910) New York Mets |
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06-03-15 | Milwaukee Brewers v. St. Louis Cardinals OVER 7 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 4 h 24 m | Show |
We are betting a rare total this afternoon as the situation is a rare one that we will be taking advantage of. This is the third and final game of this three-game set following the first two games that both finished with 1-0 finals so we should see the bats come alive today in this matinee. The Brewers bats have been a disappointment all season but to their credit, they are getting healthier on offense and I expect a touch more of offense today. The Cardinals are hitting .266 on the season which is fifth best in baseball and third best in the National League which includes second best at home at .277. Being held to one run over the last two games is certainly a rarity and they take on Jimmy Nelson today who has been up and down this season. He has allowed four runs in three of his last five starts and he had a rough time facing the Cardinals last season as in two starts, he posted a 9.64 ERA. John Lackey has been dominant for St. Louis but he also falls into part of the contrarian situation as he has allowed three runs or less in seven straight starts, all of which stayed under the total. He blanked Milwaukee for seven innings in his first start against them this season but the second time is always an edge for the offense. 10* Over (901) Milwaukee Brewers/(902) St. Louis Cardinals |
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10-25-14 | Kansas City Royals v. San Francisco Giants OVER 7 | Top | 4-11 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
The Royals took the series lead last night with a 3-2 win that saw a battle of pitchers and great defensive efforts. The game stayed below the total, the first in three World Series games thus far, but I think we get back to a higher scoring game tonight as we head toward the back of the rotation on both sides. We have yet to see both offenses put up some big numbers in the same game as Game One it was San Francisco with seven runs and Game Two it was Kansas City with seven runs while Game Three saw neither side produce as there were just 10 combined hits on Friday. San Francisco had gone over in six straight games prior to last night while the Royals were 5-2 to the over in their last seven games and the number remains the same as last night with just a little added juice. Jason Vargas goes for the Royals and he has put together two fine starts in the playoffs after a rough finish to the regular season. Since 2010, he has a 3.92 ERA and has averaged 190 innings per season but Vargas has the 14th-lowest groundball-to-flyball ratio among qualified pitchers. In other words, he's allowed a well-above-average rate of flyballs. He has been solid on the road this season but he is facing an offense that is overdue. San Francisco counters with Ryan Vogelsong and he has gone five straight starts without a quality outing. He has experienced mixed success with the extra rest, holding the Nationals to one run over 5.2 innings in the NLDS but giving up four runs in three innings last time out against the Cardinals. The over is 4-1 in Vogelsong's last five starts against teams with a winning record. 10* Over (907) Kansas City Royals/(908) San Francisco Giants |
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10-24-14 | Kansas City Royals v. San Francisco Giants UNDER 7 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
The first two games of the World Series went over the total in Kansas City and even though we are going lower in the pitching rotation, I am expecting a lower scoring game in the first game in San Francisco. Wednesday's game was far from an offensive game with the exception of one inning where the Royals scored five runs and it was the second straight game where the bullpens dominated late which we will see throughout this series. We are also going against a big streak on the Giants side as they have gone over the total in six straight games going back to the NLCS against St. Louis. We are catching a good number also as the under is 37-17-5 in the Royals last 59 games as an underdog of +110 to +150. Jeremy Guthrie takes the hill for Kansas City and he has been pitching great, allowing just two runs over his last four starts, including giving up just one run in five innings in his fist postseason start. The under has come through in each of his last three starts and the under is 18-7-2 in Guthrie's last 27 road starts. Kansas City is giving him only 3.5 rpg in his nighttime starts, covering 23 games. San Francisco counters with Tim Hudson who is making his first ever World Series start after 16 seasons and I expect him to pitch like the seasoned veteran he is. He was definitely inconsistent over the latter part of the season but he has been solid during the postseason by allowing just five runs over 13.2 innings. Overall, in 11 postseason starts, he has a 3.42 ERA so his experience will be a big advantage tonight. 10* Under (905) Kansas City Royals/(906) San Francisco Giants |
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10-14-14 | Baltimore Orioles v. Kansas City Royals UNDER 7.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 6 m | Show |
The first two games of this series have gone over the total and we will be going the opposite direction here. Because we are at the middle of the rotation with the starters, the total has increased slightly so while it is a justifiable move based on that, I do not think the change in venue is being taken into consideration nearly enough. While the first two games played in Kansas City in the postseason have gone over the total, this has been a low scoring park of late with 12 of the previous 19 games having seven or fewer runs scored. It has been a long layoff for Jeremy Guthrie who has not started since September 26th but after tossing 202.2 innings during the season, the added rest is huge. He recently took part in a simulated game, and Royals manager Ned Yost said there's "no concern" about the long layoff. He will be facing his former team for the fifth time and he has been successful in the past, posting a 2.67 ERA in 27 innings. The under is 10-4-1 in Guthrie's last 15 starts when their opponent allows five runs or more in their previous game. The Orioles counter with Wei-Yin Chen who was very solid all season with a 3.71 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in 32 starts and those numbers are even better on the road. Though Chen struggled in his AL Division Series start against the Tigers, it is good that the first playoff start is done with. He has pitched well in Kansas City, where he is 1-0 with a 2.84 ERA in two career starts and the under is 7-1 over his last eight road starts. 10* Under (963) Baltimore Orioles/(964) Kansas City Royals |
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10-12-14 | San Francisco Giants v. St. Louis Cardinals OVER 6.5 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
We are getting some value on this total based on recent results from both sides. Last night, Game One of this series stayed under the number which was not a huge surprise with the aces of both teams on the hill in Adam Wainwright and Madison Bumgarner. Tonight we are getting a total that is just a half-run higher despite the dropoff in starting pitching and that is due to the playoff runs of each team. After going over in their Wild Card game against the Pirates, the Giants have gone under in five straight games, scoring no more than three runs in any of those five contests. St. Louis meanwhile went over the total in Game One against the Dodgers in the NLDS but has since stayed under the number in its last four games, also scoring no more than three runs in any of those last four games. I think we are due to see one, if not both, offenses finally get going. Jake Peavy gets the call for San Francisco and he has been an awesome addition to the rotation since coming over from Boston. He has allowed two runs or less in 10 straight starts but most of those games came against some mediocre offenses and while the Cardinals have been shut down in the postseason, they still have the best bats in baseball. On the flip side, Lance Lynn is also on a great run as he has tossed 10 straight quality outings and is a third of an inning away from that streak being 17 straight. The Giants have been his nemesis however and it would not be surprising to see that quality outing streak end here. The contrarian total gets it done tonight. 10* Over (957) San Francisco Giants/(958) St. Louis Cardinals |
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10-10-14 | Kansas City Royals v. Baltimore Orioles UNDER 7 | Top | 8-6 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
The ALCS is not the matchup everyone was expecting and what it lacks in star quality, it makes up for in true baseball talent. The Royals and Orioles got here in different styles but one thing that is consistent and that is the pitching. Kansas City allowed a total of six runs over the three games against the potent Angels offense while Baltimore allowed a total of 10 runs in its three-game sweep of the powerful Tigers lineup. As we open this series at the top of the rotation for both sides, I expect the pitching to reign supreme once again. James Shields get the ball for the Royals and he was solid in his lone start in the ALDS against Los Angeles as he allowed just two runs over six innings in the clinching third game. That was in Kansas City and he has actually been much better on the road as he went 10-2 with a 2.97 ERA and 1.15 WHIP over 19 starts and while the majority of those games went over, that was due to great run support which I don't see happening tonight. That is because Chris Tillman has been just as solid, posting a 2.59 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 19 home starts. These two pitching faces the opposing teams a total of three times this season and allowed a grand total of just five runs. The under is 37-17-5 in the Royals last 59 games as an underdog of +110 to +150 while going under in Shields last four games as a road underdog. Meanwhile, the Under is 17-8-1 in the Orioles last 26 home games against teams with a winning road record while going under in 18 of Tillman's last 26 home starts against teams with a winning record. The last four meetings in this season series took place back in May and while those results are meaningless now, the fact that all four of those games had totals of seven shows we have value here as typical playoff over/under numbers tend to reduce quite a bit. 10* Under (951) Kansas City Royals/(952) Baltimore Orioles |
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10-07-14 | Washington Nationals v. San Francisco Giants OVER 6.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 55 m | Show |
We have seen three low scoring games to start this series, all of which have easily stayed below the total but tonight could finally be the night we see the bats break out. There have been a total of 13 runs scored over the first three games which comes after the last five regular season matchups all going over the total and averaging 11.4 rpg. Now playoff baseball is definitely different but we are getting exceptional value here and in comparison, this is the same number as last night when two elite starters were on the mound and don't be surprised to see this number climb to 7 later in the day so betting it earlier would be better. Gio Gonzalez gets the ball for Washington and he has been pitching very well of late with a string of seven quality outings. He does have a 3.63 ERA on the road however which is certainly good but far from dominating. In two career postseason starts two years ago, he posted a 4.50 ERA and 1.70 WHIP. The Giants counter with Ryan Vogelsong who has been up an down the entire season with just 15 of 32 starts resulting in quality outings. His numbers are definitely better at home but taking a look at his game log shows that only four of 16 home starts came against playoff teams and one of those came against Washington where he allowed six runs in six innings and overall, he has a 7.94 ERA in five career starts against Washington. The over is 5-1 in Vogelsong's last six starts after scoring two runs or less in their previous game. 10* Over (931) Washington Nationals/(931) San Francisco Giants |
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10-05-14 | Baltimore Orioles v. Detroit Tigers UNDER 7.5 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 7 h 40 m | Show |
We have seen the first two games of this series go over the total and with the series now shifting to Detroit, I think we see a lower scoring game on Sunday. While we saw 15 and 13 runs in the first two games, all it was were two innings that sent them over as Baltimore managed to score 12 runs total in the eighth inning in those games. This is obviously a must win game for Detroit and while the offense is powerful, it will come down to pitching and that has been lacking of late. And today, it is David Price that will have to be on his game which is a strong possibility. He has been up and down since coming over to the Tigers from Tampa Bay but he has been solid at home with the exception of a poor start against the Yankees. Baltimore is hitting just .248 against left-handers on the road and the under is 35-15-1 in the Orioles last 51 games against left-handed starters. Baltimore counters with Bud Norris who has had a very solid season with a 3.65 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in 28 starts. His numbers are not as good on the road but the fact his team has a 2-0 lead in this series should keep him under control in his first postseason start. Detroit's offense has struggled down the stretch, averaging only 3.5 rpg over its last 11 games. The Under is 20-6 in the Orioles last 26 games as a road underdog. 10* Under (917) Baltimore Orioles/(918) Detroit Tigers |
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10-02-14 | Kansas City Royals v. Los Angeles Angels UNDER 8 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 15 h 59 m | Show |
We mentioned yesterday that last season, only one of 10 games in the NL Wild Card and the NLDS finished with fewer than six runs and on average, we saw 8.4 rpg over those 10 games. While we would guess the AL numbers would be higher, they in fact were not. The 10 games in the AL Wild Card and the ALDS had an average of 7.4 rpg which is surprising considering the DH being in effect and overall higher scoring league to begin with. While this matters little to this particular matchup, the point is that perception plays a big part in putting these numbers out and that is clear with this total. The Royals easily went over in their Wild Card game on Tuesday but I think we see the complete opposite tonight as the under is 37-17-4 in the Royals last 58 games after allowing five runs or more in their previous game. When you think Angles, most think offense seeing that they led the Majors in runs scored but that has not parlayed into many games going over and that is due to solid pitching. Only 46 percent of their games at home went over and the under is 26-12 in the Angels last 38 home games. Jered Weaver gets the call for Game One and he was awesome here, posting a 2.68 ERA in 18 home starts, 13 of which were quality outings. The under is a perfect 10-0 in his last 10 home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season. Kansas City counters with Jason Vargas and while he has struggled of late, he is working on seven days rest which is big. Also, the atmosphere fits him as he was 6-6 with a 4.53 ERA in 16 starts at home this season and 5-4 with a 2.73 ERA in 14 starts on the road. 10* Under (903) Kansas City Royals/(904) Los Angeles Angels |
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10-01-14 | San Francisco Giants v. Pittsburgh Pirates OVER 6 | Top | 8-0 | Win | 100 | 35 h 10 m | Show |
When it comes to playoff baseball, pitching rules as we tend to see a lot more low scoring games or so it seems. The postseason does come with that philosophy and the linesmakers have to adjust their numbers and that is certainly reflected with this total. Last season, only one of 10 games in the NL Wild Card and the NLDS finished with fewer than six runs and on average, we saw 8.4 rpg over those 10 games. Making a comparison, this total is only a half run higher than the Game One total of St. Louis and Los Angeles and that game features the two best pitchers in the National League in Clayton Kershaw and Adam Wainwright. Looking at these two pitchers, this is easily the lowest total that Edinson Volquez has had this season and while Madison Bumgarner has had a total of six in two of his starts, both of those games went over the total with eight runs both times. Volquez comes in very hot as he allowed no runs over his final two starts covering 14 innings and he is riding a six-game quality outing streak. Additionally, he has fashioned a 1.78 ERA across his last 12 starts, and has not lost since his first outing following the All-Star Game. Now the bad news. He has a 5.72 ERA and 1.59 WHIP in 11 career starts against the Giants and allowed four runs in 1.2 innings in his only postseason start in 2010. Bumgarner has been solid as well this season but is coming off a poor start in his final regular season outing. Also, he allowed five runs in four innings in his lone start against the Pirates this season. The Over is 6-0 in Volquez' last six starts after scoring two runs or less in their previous game and the Over is 10-4 in Bumgarner's last 14 starts with the total set at 6.5 or lower. 10* Over (947) San Francisco Giants/(948) Pittsburgh Pirates |
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10-24-12 | Detroit Tigers v. San Francisco Giants UNDER 7 | Top | 3-8 | Loss | -130 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
San Francisco and Detroit enter Game One of the World Series both coming off overs in their Championship Series clinching wins. I don't think that did a lot with the total here but going against the run is advantageous here. With the series starting in San Francisco, the DH has been taken out of the Detroit lineup which is one less hitter to deal with. Detroit has been off since the 18th, a span of six days in-between games. Rest is good this time of year but that is too much rest. It is great for the starters and the relievers but it is not good for the offense as time off like that can put a big strain on the bats. Although the bats have not been overly productive during the postseason as the Tigers have averaged just four runs per game which includes the eight-run output in Game Four against the Yankees where it looks as though they had given up before the game even started. Like the Giants, the Detroit pitching was the story as it has allowed an average of just 1.9 rpg during the postseason while giving up one run or no runs five times. The Tigers have their ace going tonight as Justin Verlander gets the call and he has been outstanding going 7-0 with a 0.69 ERA, 52 strikeouts and 11 walks over his last seven starts, three of them in the playoffs. All three of his playoff starts stayed under the total and can expect the same here as he is totally locked in right now. The Giants bats got hot when necessary against the Cardinals as they came back from a 3-1 deficit and scored 20 runs over the final three games to win the series. A lot of that was some fortunate bounces as well as some unearned runs though we can't put it all on the offense. The pitching was the real story as after St. Louis put up 18 runs in the first four games, San Francisco pitching allowed only one run over the final three games. A third of that was because of the sensational effort put up by Barry Zito in Game Five which ended up being the turning point of the series. Now he gets the call in Game One of the World Series and I expect nothing less of another great effort as his last couple months have been some of his best in recent years. Including the postseason, he has lasted at least 5.2 innings and allowed no more than three runs in six of his last seven starts. He has a 2.09 ERA over that stretch and if he finds his spots and the curveball is working, he will be extremely tough to hit once again. 10* Under (901) Detroit Tigers/(902) San Francisco Giants
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10-17-12 | San Francisco Giants v. St. Louis Cardinals UNDER 7 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
The first two games of this series have gone over the total and we are getting some value in tonight's total because of that. The last total closed at 6.5 in Game Two and we have actually gained an extra half run in this one despite two aces on the hill so we will be going the other way as we look for what should be a very low scoring game. The Giants were able to even the series with a 7-1 win on Monday which happened to be the fourth straight game they have been in that has surpassed the number as well as the sixth in seven postseason games. The offense has averaged 6.25 rpg during this four-game stretch but that comes to a halt with Kyle Lohse on the mound for the Cardinals. He has pitched well in the postseason so far as he has allowed just three runs in 12.2 innings for a 2.13 ERA . He has been awesome at home all season as he is 8-1 with a 2.33 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in 16 starts with 10 of those 16 staying below the number. He has not faced the Giants since 2011 and that is a big edge on his side. The under is 14-4 in Lohse's last 18 starts following a quality outing in his last start. Then Cardinals bats were finally put in check in Game Two as they had scored six runs or more in five of the first seven postseason games. Like San Francisco, the over has been a majority winner as five of the last six games have gone over while six of eight overall postseason games have surpassed the number. It will be up to Matt Cain to repeat what Ryan Vogelsong did and even though the playoffs have not started well, Cain will be up for the challenge. He has allowed six runs in just 10.2 innings in his first two postseason starts against the Reds and he struggled against the Cardinals this year, going 1-1 with a 6.94 ERA in two starts, and is 2-3 with a 4.94 ERA overall in eight starts. Those are not good numbers to lead into a pivotal Game Three but he has been on his game all season and this is the time to step up. We finally get the pitching duel we have been waiting for. 10* Under (911) San Francisco Giants/(912) St. Louis Cardinals
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10-14-12 | St. Louis Cardinals v. San Francisco Giants UNDER 7 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
The Giants and Cardinals open the NLCS on Sunday and both are coming off clinching games that saw them fly over the total. Many are going to continue to ride that offense in this opening game and this provides value going the other way in my opinion. Four of the five games against the Reds went over for San Francisco despite a mixture of dead offense and solid pitching but those factors only meshed once in the series. The Giants scored only two runs in the first two games which were played at home and I am expecting a similar lack of production here. The Under is 5-1 in the Giants last six series opening games. They will oppose Lance Lynn who is taking the starting spot of Jaime Garcia but he is far from a replacement pitcher as he was 17-5 with a 3.67 ERA in 29 starts during the regular season. He did post a 7.36 ERA in 3.2 innings of relief to start the postseason but he does have strong experience as in the 2011 NLCS, Lynn went 1-0 and allowed zero runs over 5.1 innings. St. Louis should be dragging on offense after a huge come from behind win and then a red eye flight to San Francisco. The Cardinals have gone over in four of their six postseason games as the offense has picked it up but the situation here will be a tough one. Similar to the Giants, the Under is 5-1 in the Cardinals last six series opening games. Madison Bumgarner will try and redeem himself following a poor outing against Cincinnati in the NLDS and even though he ended the regular season badly, he brings in a great track record. He is 2-1 with a 3.24 ERA over four postseason starts and pitching at home has been a strength as he had a strong regular season there, his Division Series start notwithstanding, posting a 2.33 ERA in 14 home starts, the fifth-lowest home mark in the National League. 10* Under (903) St. Louis Cardinals/(904) San Francisco Giants
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10-10-12 | San Francisco Giants v. Cincinnati Reds OVER 8 | Top | 8-3 | Win | 106 | 5 h 31 m | Show |
We have seen the total go up by a half-run in each of the first four games of this series and today I think it is justified. Last night, we won on the under with two very capable starting pitchers but tonight they take a step down in class which means we see some offense. The ball barely got out of the infield at times on Tuesday but that will not be the case here and this is the best opportunity for the Giants to get their non-productive bats going. San Francisco has scored a total of four runs through the first three games of this series which is a surprise as over the last 15 regular season games, it averaged nearly five rpg. Tonight the Giants face Mike Leake who was thrown into this start due to the injury to ace Johnny Cueto. Leake was all over the place this year and he did not fare well at home where he posted a 5.54 ERA in 16 starts. He dominated the Giants in his only start against them this year but that was in San Francisco and it was way back in June. The Reds bats were quiet last night after lighting San Francisco up for 14 runs in the first two games and I expect a return to that after scoring just one run last night. Barry Zito gets the call and because of a very strong finish to the season, he made the postseason roster and will be starting his first playoff game since 2006. He pitched very against the Reds this season but those were early on and his career numbers are not good as he has a 6.25 ERA and 1.54 WHIP in 12 games against Cincinnati. 10* Over (927) San Francisco Giants/(928) Cincinnati Reds
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10-09-12 | San Francisco Giants v. Cincinnati Reds UNDER 8 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
The Giants are in must win mode now as they are down 2-0 in this best of five Division Series and this one should come down to the pitching yet again. The first two games of this series have gone over as San Francisco managed only two runs total in those first two games and it has been struggling for a while, scoring three runs or less in six of its last eight games. Because the first two games went over, we are getting some added value as this is the highest total we have seen thus far as it has gone from 6.5 to 7 and now to 8. The under is 5-1-1 in the Giants last seven playoff games as an underdog between +110 and +150. Neither Matt Cain nor Madison Bumgarner were able to completely shut down the Reds and the Giants are hoping Ryan Vogelsong can do it. He did not have a good August and struggled at the start of September but he did finish strong by allowing just one run over his last three starts covering 17 innings. Since reviving his career with the Giants, Vogelsong is 27-16 with a 3.05 ERA in 61 games so he is up for the challenge and the Giants are 5-1-1 to the under in his last seven starts after scoring two runs or less in their previous game. Meanwhile the under is 19-5-3 in the Reds last 27 games against right-handed starters. The Reds bats have taken control of this series which has been a surprise as Cincinnati closed the regular season by scoring four runs or less in its last 10 games including three runs or less eight times. The Reds scored just 352 runs or home this season while hitting only .256 and the under is 11-1-2 in their last 14 games as a home favorite. Homer Bailey gets the call and he wasn't even supposed to start this game as he is taking the place of Mat Latos who had to go in relief of Johnny Cueto in Game One. Bailey is coming off that no-hitter two starts back but he was very solid all season as he set career-bests in starts (33), wins (13), innings (208), strikeouts (168), ERA (3.68) and strikeouts to walks (3.23). The under is 5-0-1 in Bailey's last six starts as a favorite. 10* Under (921) San Francisco Giants/(922) Cincinnati Reds
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10-05-12 | St. Louis Cardinals v. Atlanta Braves OVER 6.5 | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 27 m | Show |
This is the first year of the single Wild Card game so we have no history to go off of in this type of situation. This is a do or die scenario and with a one and done format, the pressure on the pitchers is going to be immense. Atlanta and St. Louis met six times this season with all six of those games going over the total. Those past games cannot predict future outcomes but because of the high scoring games we saw the totals sitting pretty high with only one of those over/unders being below 7.5. Now here comes the playoffs and all of a sudden we have a total that is all the way down to 6.5 which is anywhere from one to two runs lower than in five of those six regular season meetings. Granted those games were in May but that should make do difference. While the postseason tends to be dictated by pitching, that was not the case last year as the Over was 22-15-1 in the playoffs a season ago. We are dealing the Cardinals offense that had one of the best averages in baseball and are able to produce runs so their matchup against Kris Medlen is an intriguing one. It is no secret anymore than the Braves have won his last 23 starts going back to 2010 and that he has a 0.97 ERA over his last 12 starts but with the pressure on the pitchers ands this being his first start against St. Louis, it could be a tough outing. On the flip side, the Braves offense was not very good this season and was even worse during the second half with a .233 average but bring on Kyle Lohse. He had a career season but in his lone start against the Braves this season, he allowed five runs on nine hits in just five inning. Wit this being the ultimate playoff pressure, that helps the Atlanta bats that much more as in three playoff starts last year, Lohse allowed 11 runs in 12.2 innings. Look forward to a high-scoring Wild Card game. 10* Over (901) St. Louis Cardinals/(902) Atlanta Braves
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